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-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_cf7_vdata_entry`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (
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--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_cf7_vdata_entry`
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(411, 28, 63, 'your-message', 'Hi!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nHave you ever heard of sending messages via feedback forms? \r\n \r\nThink of that your offer will be readseen by hundreds of thousands of your potential buyerscustomers. \r\nYour message will not go to the spam folder because people will send the message to themselves. As an example, we have sent you our offer  in the same way. \r\n \r\nWe have a database of more than 30 million sites to which we can send your letter. Sites are sorted by country. Unfortunately, you can only select a country when sending a message. \r\n \r\nThe price of one million messages 49 USD. \r\nThere is a discount program when you purchase  more than two million message packages. \r\n \r\n \r\nFree trial mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your selection. \r\n \r\n \r\nThis letter is created automatically. Please use the contact details below to contact us. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - Contact@feedbackmessages.com'),
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(604, 28, 90, 'your-message', 'So investieren Sie 10 000 USD in Cryptocurrency - Money Morning Germany: https://hec.su/lSqK?&amp;qnkha=xd21wvygrEQMEw'),
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(841, 29, 122, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\nI was looking to invest money through PMS. I was an Indian citizens working in New Zealand. Is there any option where I can make investment. \r\nHow much is the minimum amount.\r\nCan I have more information about the returns generated by ur company as against sensex. \r\nThanks\r\nVasu '),
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(940, 29, 135, 'your-message', 'Looking for investment support and how your products work , security of capital etc..'),
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(956, 29, 137, 'your-message', 'Hello Sir\r\nI am a big fan of Mr Saurabh Mukherjea.\r\ni want to invest on monthly basis.thanks'),
(957, 29, 137, 'submit_time', '2019-09-13 09:02:50'),
(958, 29, 137, 'submit_ip', '157.43.236.73'),
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(964, 29, 138, 'your-message', 'Hi There,\r\n\r\nI am investing in Mutual Funds from 8 to 10 months now. I had bought my first HDFC bank stock last month. I am a follower of Saurabh Mukherjea and following his advice which I hear over TV channels. I found it really beneficial.\r\nI am not a big-time investor. I am just a salaried employee who want to invest my money wisely for my daughter’s marriage, her higher studies and my retirement etc. I can invest a surplus of 5 to 7 lakhs and approx. 30 to 35 thousand every month. I want to invest my money for really long horizon 20 to 25 years. I would like to know if this fits in your PMS minimum investment criteria. \r\n\r\nI do see in your presentation, its mention minimum 25 lakhs but what is not clear is total portfolio, minimum starting portfolio etc. Hence, I thought of checking with you once. No worries even if it doesn\\\'t fits into the criteria.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nShyam'),
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(3169, 29, 440, 'your-message', 'CLICK HERE TO BEGIN SPYING: https://jvz6.com/c/988193/111047\r\nYou are shielded by our 60-Day No Questions Asked Money-Back Guarantee\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Power Tools for Authors:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nIncome metrics, key phrases, rival research, book tracking, and extra within your reaches-- all in your favorite browser.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Reverse designer the bestseller classifications with a solitary click:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nWhen you want a thorough malfunction of any Kindle or Schedule classification on Amazon, simply click on KDSPY from within your web browser, as well as in simple secs, you\\\'ll know the competitor landscape of that group, the prospective est. earnings you could make there with a first-page listing-- AND ALSO you\\\'ll have a comprehensive breakdown of each publications efficiency.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;See the number of books you require to sell in 24-hour to place # 1-20:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nAs soon as you have actually recognized an excellent group, a straightforward roll-over with your mouse on the red \\\'info\\\' icon will certainly disclose the est. DAILY sales you\\\'ll need for Amazon.com\\\'s algorithm to take notice of your publication-- highlighting just how to place # 1 and # 20 in any type of given Kindle or Reserve category.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Discover one of the most prominent book patterns in any kind of group:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nWhat better way to find successful niches-- and also get concepts for your following book-- than by designing what\\\'s already working for other top writers. KDSPY reveals you the hot patterns in any type of market, discloses the successful specific niches to go after-- and also gives you a world cloud to aid you compose an engaging publication title.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Analyse key phrases comprehensive for profit &amp; ranking potential:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nDo any kind of key words search in KDSPY itself as well as promptly obtain 100\\\'s of added (A-Z) keyword phrase suggestions-- all exportable for AMS ads-- together with rival counts as well as their est. monthly profits. It does not obtain any kind of quicker than this to research search phrases.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Spy on other authors and design their successful books:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nKDSPY can analyse any kind of author page and also inform you in secs all their statistics. Simply a solitary click will reveal you the SalesRank of all their Kindle, Paperback &amp; Hardcover books, their approximated sales, and total incomes damaged down by specific book kind.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;Track the rankings &amp; profits of any publication over thirty days:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nKeep track of as lots of Kindle, Book &amp; Hardcover books as you \\\'d like with our book tracking function. KDSPY pulls the SalesRank of your competitor\\\'s publications and displays their rank in chart type together with their est. DAILY sales balanced out over the month. What better way to find \\\'consistent\\\' marketing publications &amp; particular niche topics than by adhering to sales performance over-time.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;KDSPY supports information from 9 country particular Kindle stores on Amazon:&lt;/b&gt;\r\nAlthough you can use KDSPY from anywhere around the world ... KDSPY v5 additionally offers you \\&quot;country-specific\\&quot; data from Amazon.com stores in; U.S.A., UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, Italy, Spain, France as well as India, also.\r\n\r\n&lt;b&gt;&lt;a href=\\&quot;https://jvz6.com/c/988193/111047\\&quot;&gt; GO HERE TO BEGIN SPYING &lt;/a&gt;&lt;/b&gt;\r\nYou are shielded by our 60-Day No Questions Asked Money-Back Assurance'),
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(3546, 28, 493, 'your-message', 'Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \n\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \n\n https://domainboardserver.com/?n=marcellus.in&amp;r=a \n\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state/city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \n\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \n\n Secure Online Payment: \n\n https://domainboardserver.com/?n=marcellus.in&amp;r=a \n\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.'),
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(3653, 29, 507, 'your-message', 'Please do share the min investment required for the PMS as well as the investment philosophy. Thanks! '),
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(3661, 29, 508, 'your-message', 'Hi Team - keen on finding out more about your PMS product. Pls give me a call\r\nThanks'),
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(3710, 29, 515, 'your-message', 'Please send me the following for PMS services.\r\n1. Brochure.\r\n2. Performance.\r\n3. Presentation\r\n4. Charges\r\n5. Comparison with ICICI and Motilal Oswal PMS'),
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(3724, 29, 517, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nCan you put me on your mailing list for the newsletter and also email me the performance of your PMS since inception. Thanks.\r\n\r\nShiraz'),
(3725, 29, 517, 'submit_time', '2019-09-21 06:35:32'),
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(3732, 28, 518, 'your-message', 'We are mutual fund distributors and sub broker (SMC Securities) and we would like to get associated with your firm as distributor and may also be investor for this PMS.   Please share the details of past performance and shares in which you have invested... Thanks'),
(3733, 28, 518, 'submit_time', '2019-09-21 08:30:16'),
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(3746, 29, 520, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\nI am NRI and would like to invest through PMS. I am big fan of Saurabh and his consistent compounder theory.\r\nRequest you to kindly connect.\r\nThanks,\r\nBest Regards,\r\nKamal '),
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(4236, 29, 592, 'your-message', 'Wanna investment ideas'),
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(4250, 29, 594, 'your-message', 'Would like to know for account opening procedures &amp; fees rates '),
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(4252, 29, 594, 'submit_ip', '106.210.131.73'),
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(4258, 29, 595, 'your-message', 'Hi, kindly contact me only only after 6 oclock may be tommorrow not today. I am not in any hurry of investing.'),
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(4274, 29, 597, 'your-message', 'I want to know what are the schemes for retail investor'),
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(4306, 28, 602, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcellus team,\r\n\r\nI like you investing approach and would like to start investment with your PMS.\r\n\r\nPlease contact me on my above phone number to discuss further.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nPiyush Savani'),
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(4360, 29, 610, 'your-message', 'Surprised that no one have contacted even after submitting my interest.\r\n\r\nCan some one contact me ?'),
(4361, 29, 610, 'submit_time', '2019-09-26 11:59:11'),
(4362, 29, 610, 'submit_ip', '106.51.0.201'),
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(4374, 1662, 612, 'submit_ip', '203.110.93.186'),
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(4380, 29, 613, 'your-message', 'I want to join your PMS.'),
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(4382, 29, 613, 'submit_ip', '103.114.16.3'),
(4383, 29, 614, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(4384, 29, 614, 'text-604', 'RAVI KUMAR'),
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(4388, 29, 614, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS '),
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(4408, 28, 617, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\nI am currently exploring the option of availing PMS services. However, my wife and I are currently based in United States and therefore were wondering if your PMS services are provided to non-resident Indians?\r\nLooking forward to your response!\r\nThanks,\r\nVarun'),
(4409, 28, 617, 'submit_time', '2019-09-26 18:16:14'),
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(4416, 1662, 618, 'submit_ip', '103.216.193.99'),
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(4421, 1662, 619, 'submit_time', '2019-09-26 22:51:51'),
(4422, 1662, 619, 'submit_ip', '70.123.106.239'),
(4423, 29, 620, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(4424, 29, 620, 'text-604', 'Moshe'),
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(4426, 29, 620, 'email-510', 'noreplymonkeydigital@gmail.com'),
(4427, 29, 620, 'tel-299', '06-88705379'),
(4428, 29, 620, 'your-message', 'All of the backlinks that you receive from us in any of these packages are one hundred percent, authentic dofollow Backlinks from old pages with high DA PA values.\r\n\r\nAdditionally, the backlinks that we are now offering you today in these packages are the exact kind of backlinks which most webmasters prefer because it is these types of backlinks specifically which transfer the most amount of link power to your pages fast!\r\n\r\nread more about this great offer here\r\nhttps://monkeydigital.co/product/150-dofollow-backlinks/\r\n\r\nthanks and regards\r\nMike\r\nmonkeydigital.co@gmail.com\r\n'),
(4429, 29, 620, 'submit_time', '2019-09-26 23:44:04'),
(4430, 29, 620, 'submit_ip', '192.253.253.126'),
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(4432, 1662, 621, 'your-name', 'Sumesh Gupta'),
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(4441, 28, 622, 'tel-182', '9825023149'),
(4442, 28, 622, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nAm an ex banker and an Independent Advisor. Do you source business through independent advisors and if yes than I would like to empanel my self. \r\nKindly advice the process.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nSumesh Gupta'),
(4443, 28, 622, 'submit_time', '2019-09-27 06:51:37'),
(4444, 28, 622, 'submit_ip', '42.106.0.45'),
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(4456, 29, 624, 'your-message', 'Intrested Please call'),
(4457, 29, 624, 'submit_time', '2019-09-27 08:06:17'),
(4458, 29, 624, 'submit_ip', '49.35.227.214'),
(4459, 29, 625, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(4466, 29, 625, 'submit_ip', '43.225.19.28'),
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(4478, 28, 627, 'your-message', 'I am interested to sell your product in chandigarh I am MF DISTRIBUTOR having AUM 110 Cr\r\nPl contact \r\nThanks \r\n'),
(4479, 28, 627, 'submit_time', '2019-09-27 09:29:04'),
(4480, 28, 627, 'submit_ip', '122.173.240.164'),
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(4496, 29, 630, 'text-604', 'ARITRA'),
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(4500, 29, 630, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI’ve recently been tracking the performance of Marcellus as a PMS and would like to understand your product offering.\r\n\r\nCurrently I am invested in the Indian capital markets via online broker ICICIDirect and would like to explore the pms options available with your company.\r\n\r\nAppreciate your response.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nAritra'),
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(4508, 29, 631, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI’ve recently been tracking the performance of Marcellus as a PMS and would like to understand your product offering.\r\n\r\nCurrently I am invested in the Indian capital markets via online broker ICICIDirect and would like to explore the pms options available with your company.\r\n\r\nAppreciate your response.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nAritra'),
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(4674, 28, 655, 'your-message', 'Hello Sir/ madam\r\nAlthough I am investing directly in equity, I want to invest through your Portfolio management services. \r\nLet me know about the details, as how to proceed.\r\nRegards. '),
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(4688, 28, 657, 'your-message', '1.Is top up is available ? if yes what is the minimum amount\r\n2. What is the minimum amount can I withdraw ?\r\n3. Is companies dividend is directly credited to my account or its get reinvested through you. \r\n'),
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(5832, 29, 832, 'your-message', 'How ar you\r\n\r\nI really want to say what a delightful site you have create!\r\nI am a customer of your webshop.\r\nend really like your products.\r\nI had visited your store last week, and I saw a very nice item i wanne buy.\r\nBut I have a question! today I wanted to order it, but can not find the product anymore in your webshop.\r\nThe item looks like this picture on this Site http://item.pictures/productfoto2\r\nMail me if you are going to sell it again.\r\nI\\\'ll wait.\r\n\r\nSincerely\r\n\r\n\\&quot;Sent from my iPhone\\&quot;'),
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(5840, 29, 833, 'your-message', 'Please send me product details and terms &amp; conditions of your PMS service.\r\n\r\nThanks &amp; Regards,\r\nKiran Phalak'),
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(5929, 29, 846, 'your-message', 'I am interested in the PMS\r\nHave read your books\r\nAs NRI, pls advice how we can move it fwd\r\nthanks\r\nHIten Lala'),
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(5937, 28, 847, 'your-message', 'Hi ! I am interested in enrolling with you for PMS service. \r\n\r\nThanks \r\n'),
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(5944, 1835, 848, 'your-message', 'I am based in Dubai and interested in your services. You can reach me on my India roaming number. I prefer if you call me on Friday (being my weekend).'),
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(6034, 29, 862, 'your-message', 'Interested in keeping in touch and having Marcellus on my investment radar. '),
(6035, 29, 862, 'submit_time', '2019-10-04 02:13:51'),
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(6042, 29, 863, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\nI am a NRI currently living in the US. I never invested in India but with experience in investing in the US. Can you please provide details of on the logistics to open a PMS account for a NRI and also with Marcellus?\r\n\r\nThank you\r\n\r\nSireesh.'),
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(6056, 29, 865, 'your-message', 'Hi, would like to understand about your product and offerings. Request if we can discuss this at my office in Lower Parel to take the discussion forward.'),
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(6070, 29, 867, 'your-message', 'Would like to be a direct client and speak to saurabhji once  before putting the money...'),
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(6204, 29, 886, 'your-message', 'Hello marcellus.in,\r\n\r\nPeople ask, “why does TalkWithCustomer work so well?”\r\n\r\nIt’s simple.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer enables you to connect with a prospective customer at EXACTLY the Perfect Time.\r\n\r\n- NOT one week, two weeks, three weeks after they’ve checked out your website marcellus.in.\r\n- NOT with a form letter style email that looks like it was written by a bot.\r\n- NOT with a robocall that could come at any time out of the blue.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer connects you to that person within seconds of THEM asking to hear from YOU.\r\n\r\nThey kick off the conversation.\r\n\r\nThey take that first step.\r\n\r\nThey ask to hear from you regarding what you have to offer and how it can make their life better. \r\n\r\nAnd it happens almost immediately. In real time. While they’re still looking over your website marcellus.in, trying to make up their mind whether you are right for them.\r\n\r\nWhen you connect with them at that very moment it’s the ultimate in Perfect Timing – as one famous marketer put it, “you’re entering the conversation already going on in their mind.”\r\n\r\nYou can’t find a better opportunity than that.\r\n\r\nAnd you can’t find an easier way to seize that chance than TalkWithCustomer. \r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive and see what a difference “Perfect Timing” can make to your business.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS:  If you’re wondering whether NOW is the perfect time to try TalkWithCustomer, ask yourself this:\r\n“Will doing what I’m already doing now produce up to 100X more leads?”\r\nBecause those are the kinds of results we know TalkWithCustomer can deliver.  \r\nIt shouldn’t even be a question, especially since it will cost you ZERO to give it a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start your free 14-day test drive today.\r\n\r\nIf you\\\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(9214, 29, 1351, 'your-message', 'Myself Naren from Muscat. I would like to know about your PMS scheme. Could you please send me the details?'),
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(9271, 1835, 1359, 'your-message', 'I could be interested in your pms. Could you send more details by email. \r\n'),
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(9278, 29, 1360, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to know what kind of investment services you provide?\r\n\r\nI am looking for some advisory service at the moment. So which with you on the same.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nSrinivas'),
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(9313, 29, 1365, 'your-message', 'Kindly contact as I wish to have additional details on the PMS before investing.\r\nThanks'),
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(9320, 28, 1366, 'your-message', 'Hi, this is chloe from eurekahedge, I am interested in the funds that your company are running, wondering if any of them are hedge funds or private equity fund? could you give me a call and have a quick chat about this? '),
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(9377, 1835, 1375, 'your-message', 'wld like to understand more as interested in investing.'),
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(9384, 1835, 1376, 'your-message', 'I am an amatuer share market investor and I am looking for portfolio management services for handling my investment. My primary goal currently is to grow my investment. And, I am interested to know about what Marcellus has to offer. '),
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(9391, 1835, 1377, 'your-message', 'Looking for some investment help here. Please get in touch.'),
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(9422, 1662, 1382, 'submit_time', '2019-10-10 09:46:10'),
(9423, 1662, 1382, 'submit_ip', '157.39.129.247'),
(9424, 29, 1383, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(9428, 29, 1383, 'your-message', 'Dear sir \r\nexisting stock size 28 lk . want to switch over to pms , please explain fee structure . \r\n\r\nthanks \r\n\r\nsudhir wagh'),
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(9440, 1662, 1385, 'tel-309', '9448130223'),
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(9465, 1835, 1389, 'tel-309', '9940140136'),
(9466, 1835, 1389, 'your-message', 'Need to distribute the pms wanted to know your  terms and revenue share\r\nI am already a sub broker with Motilal for 15 years'),
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(9468, 1835, 1389, 'submit_ip', '42.109.154.212'),
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(9473, 1835, 1390, 'your-message', 'Need to distribute the pms wanted to know your  terms and revenue share\r\nI am already a sub broker with Motilal for 15 years'),
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(9536, 1835, 1400, 'your-message', 'Hello I’m interested in learning more about your PMS and other products. Please get in touch. Thanks.  '),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(9547, 29, 1402, 'text-604', 'Neeraj Shrivastava'),
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(9550, 29, 1402, 'your-message', 'I am interested in invested in your PMS. However, would like to understand your investment strategy better. \r\nThanks,\r\nNeeraj\r\n'),
(9551, 29, 1402, 'submit_time', '2019-10-10 18:32:10'),
(9552, 29, 1402, 'submit_ip', '223.226.106.63'),
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(9557, 1835, 1403, 'your-message', 'Can I get the ebook . Thanks '),
(9558, 1835, 1403, 'submit_time', '2019-10-10 18:43:50'),
(9559, 1835, 1403, 'submit_ip', '111.93.32.219'),
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(9570, 1835, 1405, 'your-message', 'I am interested investing in PMS. Please let me know the proceedings. '),
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(9580, 28, 1407, 'text-996', 'Jay Shah'),
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(9583, 28, 1407, 'your-message', 'I am an IFA looking to partner with Marcellus through my private wealth management firm- Finwisor.\r\nI am a CA and MBA (IIM Lucknow).\r\n\r\nI look forward to hear from you'),
(9584, 28, 1407, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 02:17:37'),
(9585, 28, 1407, 'submit_ip', '49.36.7.148'),
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(9589, 1835, 1408, 'tel-309', '432 6966'),
(9590, 1835, 1408, 'your-message', 'Hey there,\r\nDo you want to reach new clients? \r\n\r\nWe are personally welcoming you to join one of the leading influencer and affiliate networks on the internet. \r\nThis network finds influencers and affiliates in your niche who will promote your products/services on their sites and social network channels. \r\nBenefits of our program include: brand recognition for your business, increased trustworthiness, and potentially more customers. \r\n\r\nIt is the safest, easiest and most reliable way to increase your sales! \r\n\r\nWhat do you think?\r\n\r\nLearn more: http://socialinfluencer.nicheadvertising.online'),
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(9594, 1662, 1409, 'your-name', 'Rohit Pratap Singh'),
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(9606, 1835, 1411, 'your-name', 'Gajanan dusane'),
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(9609, 1835, 1411, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\nI am currently in USA and would like to know about your services.  Investment amount and lock in.  Also please let know past performance\r\nThanks\r\nGajanan Dusane'),
(9610, 1835, 1411, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 03:37:26'),
(9611, 1835, 1411, 'submit_ip', '73.70.196.157'),
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(9616, 29, 1412, 'your-message', 'Could you get in touch for the investor options? '),
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(9638, 1662, 1416, 'your-name', 'manisha'),
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(9656, 1835, 1419, 'your-name', 'Aaditya Pourana'),
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(9685, 1662, 1423, 'submit_ip', '182.56.181.181'),
(9686, 29, 1424, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(9687, 29, 1424, 'text-604', 'Kulwant Singh'),
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(9694, 1662, 1425, 'your-name', 'AYUSH JHA'),
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(9697, 1662, 1425, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 07:42:41'),
(9698, 1662, 1425, 'submit_ip', '103.11.119.59'),
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(9700, 1662, 1426, 'your-name', 'Rohit Ajmera'),
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(9704, 1662, 1426, 'submit_ip', '14.141.254.163'),
(9705, 29, 1427, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(9706, 29, 1427, 'text-604', 'RAYANAPATI KANAKA PHANI'),
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(9709, 29, 1427, 'your-message', 'I am looking to know more about the Marcellus, in order to decide about investing in PMS. '),
(9710, 29, 1427, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 09:25:09'),
(9711, 29, 1427, 'submit_ip', '202.91.134.75'),
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(9713, 28, 1428, 'text-996', 'Dheeraj'),
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(9716, 28, 1428, 'tel-182', '7888715091'),
(9717, 28, 1428, 'your-message', 'I am a financial services distributor based out of Raipur. Want to understand how can we grow together.'),
(9718, 28, 1428, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 12:01:01'),
(9719, 28, 1428, 'submit_ip', '182.70.188.70'),
(9720, 29, 1429, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(9721, 29, 1429, 'text-604', 'Anshuman '),
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(9723, 29, 1429, 'tel-299', '+4915163987856'),
(9724, 29, 1429, 'your-message', 'I would like to understand the philosophy more and what\'s the philosophy of investing and the future prospects of indian market'),
(9725, 29, 1429, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 12:05:20'),
(9726, 29, 1429, 'submit_ip', '5.146.249.28'),
(9727, 1662, 1430, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(9728, 1662, 1430, 'your-name', 'Aditya Karnik'),
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(9734, 1662, 1431, 'your-name', 'L V N Muralidhar'),
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(9737, 1662, 1431, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 12:44:46'),
(9738, 1662, 1431, 'submit_ip', '183.83.237.24'),
(9739, 28, 1432, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(9740, 28, 1432, 'text-996', 'Kumar Deobrat'),
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(9742, 28, 1432, 'tel-182', '9798992199'),
(9743, 28, 1432, 'your-message', 'I want  to join ur pms service, what can I do ???'),
(9744, 28, 1432, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 12:45:02'),
(9745, 28, 1432, 'submit_ip', '106.206.27.36'),
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(9750, 1835, 1433, 'your-message', 'Dear Team,\r\n\r\nIam interested in your PMS service.\r\n\r\nPls share details with me in email.\r\n\r\nKind Regards,\r\nGoutam'),
(9751, 1835, 1433, 'submit_time', '2019-10-11 13:14:32'),
(9752, 1835, 1433, 'submit_ip', '106.207.109.121'),
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(9760, 1662, 1435, 'your-name', 'Ravisankar TR'),
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(9766, 1662, 1436, 'your-name', 'Pritesh Gajra'),
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(10066, 29, 1482, 'your-message', 'None . I am neither of the two but I will surely one day earn enough to be your client.\r\nSending this message to thank you people to spread the knowledge so clearly and rationally about investing.\r\nYour newsletters and webinars are playing crucial role in building my own investment philosophy influenced by coffee can.\r\nOne day would love to be a part of your team if I will be successful to get some finance degree, for now I am a chemical engineer by profession and investment learner by passion.\r\nThanks again for making so much material public and wish Marcellus huge success.\r\nRegards,\r\nNitansh'),
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(10183, 29, 1500, 'your-message', 'Hi.  Submitted earlier also.  Let me know more about investment options'),
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(10249, 28, 1510, 'your-message', 'sir we\'re a group of HNI distributors interested in investing our HNi client money for wealth creation'),
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(10296, 28, 1517, 'your-message', 'Hi!\r\nWhat is minimum investment requirement for portfolio?\r\n\r\nRegards'),
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(10347, 29, 1525, 'your-message', 'Kindly contact me preferable on Friday 18 Oct after 1:00 pm IST'),
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(10354, 1835, 1526, 'your-message', 'hi there\r\nI have just checked marcellus.in for the ranking keywords and to see your SEO metrics and found that you website could use a boost.\r\n\r\nWe will improve your SEO metrics and ranks organically and safely, using only whitehat methods\r\n\r\nPlease check our pricelist here, we offer SEO at cheap rates. \r\nhttps://www.hilkom-digital.de/cheap-seo-packages/\r\n\r\nStart boosting your business sales and leads with us, today!\r\n\r\nregards\r\nHilkom Digital Team\r\nsupport@hilkom-digital.de'),
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(10361, 29, 1527, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI\'d like to start a conversation about investing in the Consistent Compounders fund. Kindly reach out by email, so we can schedule a day/time for a chat.\r\n\r\nWarmly,\r\nRohan'),
(10362, 29, 1527, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 07:20:22'),
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(10368, 28, 1528, 'your-message', 'I am interested in distribution of your solutions.'),
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(10372, 1662, 1529, 'your-name', 'Priyanka'),
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(10375, 1662, 1529, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 07:52:08'),
(10376, 1662, 1529, 'submit_ip', '157.45.194.172'),
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(10378, 1662, 1530, 'your-name', 'Anilkumar jain'),
(10379, 1662, 1530, 'your-email', 'jaininv2001@gmail.com'),
(10380, 1662, 1530, 'tel-309', '9870255750'),
(10381, 1662, 1530, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 09:44:09'),
(10382, 1662, 1530, 'submit_ip', '49.36.10.54'),
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(10384, 1662, 1531, 'your-name', 'Chirag Gandhi'),
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(10387, 1662, 1531, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 10:20:29'),
(10388, 1662, 1531, 'submit_ip', '192.193.160.13'),
(10389, 28, 1532, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10390, 28, 1532, 'text-996', 'Suvan Agarwal'),
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(10393, 28, 1532, 'your-message', 'Hi, I\'m starting my own financial planning firm with a special focus on HNI\'s. Interested in becoming a distributor\r\n\r\nHappy to discuss in detail over a call or a meeting\r\n\r\nBest,\r\nS'),
(10394, 28, 1532, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 13:11:05'),
(10395, 28, 1532, 'submit_ip', '61.95.254.10'),
(10396, 29, 1533, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10397, 29, 1533, 'text-604', 'Arun Sharma'),
(10398, 29, 1533, 'email-510', 'arunsharma7@yahoo.com'),
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(10400, 29, 1533, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI with an existing PMS account with another company on non repatriable (NRO) account. I would like to explore option of opening one with you guys with minimum investment of 25Lakh. \r\nI have two questions, \r\n1) How soon you think the SEBI guidelines to raise the minimum PMS to 50 Lakh will become application\r\n2) Can you do a 1.5% fixed fee for me instead of 2%\r\n\r\nArun Sharma\r\n'),
(10401, 29, 1533, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 13:53:10'),
(10402, 29, 1533, 'submit_ip', '72.21.196.66'),
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(10410, 1662, 1535, 'your-name', 'Akash'),
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(10413, 1662, 1535, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 18:08:17'),
(10414, 1662, 1535, 'submit_ip', '49.36.5.182'),
(10415, 29, 1536, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10416, 29, 1536, 'text-604', 'Eric Jones'),
(10417, 29, 1536, 'email-510', 'eric@talkwithcustomer.com'),
(10418, 29, 1536, 'tel-299', '416-385-3200');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(10419, 29, 1536, 'your-message', 'Hey,\r\n\r\nYou have a website marcellus.in, right?\r\n\r\nOf course you do. I am looking at your website now.\r\n\r\nIt gets traffic every day – that you’re probably spending $2 / $4 / $10 or more a click to get.  Not including all of the work you put into creating social media, videos, blog posts, emails, and so on.\r\n\r\nSo you’re investing seriously in getting people to that site.\r\n\r\nBut how’s it working?  Great? Okay?  Not so much?\r\n\r\nIf that answer could be better, then it’s likely you’re putting a lot of time, effort, and money into an approach that’s not paying off like it should.\r\n\r\nNow… imagine doubling your lead conversion in just minutes… In fact, I’ll go even better.\r\n \r\nYou could actually get up to 100X more conversions!\r\n\r\nI’m not making this up.  As Chris Smith, best-selling author of The Conversion Code says: Speed is essential - there is a 100x decrease in Leads when a Lead is contacted within 14 minutes vs being contacted within 5 minutes.\r\n\r\nHe’s backed up by a study at MIT that found the odds of contacting a lead will increase by 100 times if attempted in 5 minutes or less.\r\n\r\nAgain, out of the 100s of visitors to your website, how many actually call to become clients?\r\n\r\nWell, you can significantly increase the number of calls you get – with ZERO extra effort.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer makes it easy, simple, and fast – in fact, you can start getting more calls today… and at absolutely no charge to you.\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive to find out how.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS: Don’t just take my word for it, TalkWithCustomer works:\r\nEMA has been looking for ways to reach out to an audience. TalkWithCustomer so far is the most direct call of action. It has produced above average closing ratios and we are thrilled. Thank you for providing a real and effective tool to generate REAL leads. - P MontesDeOca.\r\nBest of all, act now to get a no-cost 14-Day Test Drive – our gift to you just for giving TalkWithCustomer a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
(10420, 29, 1536, 'submit_time', '2019-10-15 22:52:58'),
(10421, 29, 1536, 'submit_ip', '23.90.28.109'),
(10422, 29, 1537, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10423, 29, 1537, 'text-604', 'Laxmikant Agarwal '),
(10424, 29, 1537, 'email-510', 'laxmikantagarwal@gmail.com'),
(10425, 29, 1537, 'tel-299', '7769962739'),
(10426, 29, 1537, 'your-message', 'Need to discuss about PMS with you..'),
(10427, 29, 1537, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 00:31:19'),
(10428, 29, 1537, 'submit_ip', '103.226.144.121'),
(10429, 29, 1538, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10430, 29, 1538, 'text-604', 'Maharaj Singh'),
(10431, 29, 1538, 'email-510', 'maharja29@gmail.com'),
(10432, 29, 1538, 'tel-299', '+14706584659'),
(10433, 29, 1538, 'your-message', 'Interested in investing in portfolio scheme. '),
(10434, 29, 1538, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 01:31:11'),
(10435, 29, 1538, 'submit_ip', '24.126.202.158'),
(10436, 29, 1539, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10437, 29, 1539, 'text-604', 'Vasudevan'),
(10438, 29, 1539, 'email-510', 'skvasu353@rediffmail.com'),
(10439, 29, 1539, 'tel-299', '9940159173'),
(10440, 29, 1539, 'your-message', 'Pls send mail on your investment products'),
(10441, 29, 1539, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 02:54:28'),
(10442, 29, 1539, 'submit_ip', '157.33.13.231'),
(10443, 1662, 1540, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10444, 1662, 1540, 'your-name', 'Guneet'),
(10445, 1662, 1540, 'your-email', 'guneetsahni@gmail.com'),
(10446, 1662, 1540, 'tel-309', '9833922865'),
(10447, 1662, 1540, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:13:30'),
(10448, 1662, 1540, 'submit_ip', '198.147.160.75'),
(10449, 29, 1541, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10450, 29, 1541, 'text-604', 'SANDEEP JOSEPH'),
(10451, 29, 1541, 'email-510', 'sndp.joseph@gmail.com'),
(10452, 29, 1541, 'tel-299', '9820633469'),
(10453, 29, 1541, 'your-message', 'Request details of your PMS schemes and your office location in Chennai'),
(10454, 29, 1541, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:15:57'),
(10455, 29, 1541, 'submit_ip', '182.65.103.119'),
(10456, 28, 1542, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10457, 28, 1542, 'text-996', 'Kunal Das'),
(10458, 28, 1542, 'email-563', 'kunaldas1971@gmail.com'),
(10459, 28, 1542, 'tel-182', '+919049054538'),
(10460, 28, 1542, 'your-message', 'Greetings for the day.\r\nI wish to consider the option of distribution of services offered by Marcellus. Please let me know the way forward.\r\nI have worked with Bajaj Allianz life, Aviva life between 2004 and and 2016. I intend to start up my firm offering financial products/services in this FY.\r\nThanks and regards.'),
(10461, 28, 1542, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:29:50'),
(10462, 28, 1542, 'submit_ip', '42.108.233.93'),
(10463, 1662, 1543, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10464, 1662, 1543, 'your-name', 'Vipul Brahmbhatt'),
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(10468, 1662, 1543, 'submit_ip', '42.106.47.109'),
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(10470, 1662, 1544, 'your-name', 'Vipul Brahmbhatt'),
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(10472, 1662, 1544, 'tel-309', '9427616172'),
(10473, 1662, 1544, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:32:13'),
(10474, 1662, 1544, 'submit_ip', '42.106.47.109'),
(10475, 29, 1545, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10476, 29, 1545, 'text-604', 'Vipul Brahmbhatt'),
(10477, 29, 1545, 'email-510', 'Vipulbrahmbhattvipul14@gmail.com'),
(10478, 29, 1545, 'tel-299', '9427616172'),
(10479, 29, 1545, 'your-message', ''),
(10480, 29, 1545, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:34:38'),
(10481, 29, 1545, 'submit_ip', '42.106.47.109'),
(10482, 29, 1546, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10483, 29, 1546, 'text-604', 'Vipul Brahmbhatt'),
(10484, 29, 1546, 'email-510', 'Vipulbrahmbhattvipul14@gmail.com'),
(10485, 29, 1546, 'tel-299', '9427616172'),
(10486, 29, 1546, 'your-message', ''),
(10487, 29, 1546, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 07:34:39'),
(10488, 29, 1546, 'submit_ip', '42.106.47.109'),
(10489, 1662, 1547, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10490, 1662, 1547, 'your-name', 'emoukidacoyaj'),
(10491, 1662, 1547, 'your-email', 'ikixeb@werwer.namnerbca.com'),
(10492, 1662, 1547, 'tel-309', '85573553782'),
(10493, 1662, 1547, 'submit', 'Send'),
(10494, 1662, 1547, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 09:17:03'),
(10495, 1662, 1547, 'submit_ip', '37.115.216.65'),
(10496, 1662, 1548, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10497, 1662, 1548, 'your-name', 'efehukeyolsir'),
(10498, 1662, 1548, 'your-email', 'ayopig@werwer.namnerbca.com'),
(10499, 1662, 1548, 'tel-309', '82497356959'),
(10500, 1662, 1548, 'submit', 'Send'),
(10501, 1662, 1548, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 09:44:50'),
(10502, 1662, 1548, 'submit_ip', '37.115.216.65'),
(10503, 29, 1549, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10504, 29, 1549, 'text-604', 'Ravi Venkataramani'),
(10505, 29, 1549, 'email-510', 'ravi@exeterpremedia.com'),
(10506, 29, 1549, 'tel-299', '09940597647'),
(10507, 29, 1549, 'your-message', 'I heard Saurabh talk at an EO event in Chennai a few weeks ago. I would like to participate as an individual investor first and then look at our corporate treasury in the future. Please get in touch via email. Thanks, Ravi'),
(10508, 29, 1549, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 10:41:27'),
(10509, 29, 1549, 'submit_ip', '92.40.249.121'),
(10510, 1662, 1550, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10511, 1662, 1550, 'your-name', 'pranav mehta'),
(10512, 1662, 1550, 'your-email', 'pranavdmehta@gmail.com'),
(10513, 1662, 1550, 'tel-309', '9820690788'),
(10514, 1662, 1550, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 11:25:41'),
(10515, 1662, 1550, 'submit_ip', '182.56.88.139'),
(10516, 28, 1551, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10517, 28, 1551, 'text-996', 'Anita Aditya Malpani'),
(10518, 28, 1551, 'email-563', 'malpaniinvestments@gmail.com'),
(10519, 28, 1551, 'tel-182', '09158252439'),
(10520, 28, 1551, 'your-message', 'More details on the product &amp; emplacement. '),
(10521, 28, 1551, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 11:28:09'),
(10522, 28, 1551, 'submit_ip', '49.36.10.17'),
(10523, 1662, 1552, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10524, 1662, 1552, 'your-name', 'Anita Malpani'),
(10525, 1662, 1552, 'your-email', 'malpaniinvestments@gmail.com'),
(10526, 1662, 1552, 'tel-309', '09158252439'),
(10527, 1662, 1552, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 11:29:25'),
(10528, 1662, 1552, 'submit_ip', '49.36.10.17'),
(10529, 29, 1553, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10530, 29, 1553, 'text-604', 'Pawan Batra'),
(10531, 29, 1553, 'email-510', 'pbatra101@gmail.com'),
(10532, 29, 1553, 'tel-299', '7889237983'),
(10533, 29, 1553, 'your-message', 'Want to know about the PMS services, investment approach, return vs risk approach, ticket size and fee '),
(10534, 29, 1553, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 16:34:51'),
(10535, 29, 1553, 'submit_ip', '103.104.203.83'),
(10536, 29, 1554, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10537, 29, 1554, 'text-604', 'Pawan Batra'),
(10538, 29, 1554, 'email-510', 'pbatra101@gmail.com'),
(10539, 29, 1554, 'tel-299', '7889237983'),
(10540, 29, 1554, 'your-message', 'Want to know about the PMS services, investment approach, return vs risk approach, ticket size and fee '),
(10541, 29, 1554, 'submit_time', '2019-10-16 16:34:52'),
(10542, 29, 1554, 'submit_ip', '103.104.203.83'),
(10543, 1662, 1555, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10544, 1662, 1555, 'your-name', 'Ritu Modi'),
(10545, 1662, 1555, 'your-email', 'ritumodi86@gmail.com'),
(10546, 1662, 1555, 'tel-309', '9867867993'),
(10547, 1662, 1555, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 02:43:30'),
(10548, 1662, 1555, 'submit_ip', '49.33.200.223'),
(10549, 1662, 1556, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10550, 1662, 1556, 'your-name', 'Satyen Ganguly'),
(10551, 1662, 1556, 'your-email', 'satyenganguly@yahoo.com'),
(10552, 1662, 1556, 'tel-309', '9425178250'),
(10553, 1662, 1556, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 04:29:17'),
(10554, 1662, 1556, 'submit_ip', '117.194.236.116'),
(10555, 29, 1557, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10556, 29, 1557, 'text-604', 'Satyen Ganguly'),
(10557, 29, 1557, 'email-510', 'satyenganguly@yahoo.com'),
(10558, 29, 1557, 'tel-299', '9425178250'),
(10559, 29, 1557, 'your-message', 'I am a retired person and already have good investment in MF and equity. Unfortunately many are loosing. Your scheme of 25 lacs PMS is not possible for me at this stage. Do you have any other schemes to help investors like me who can not afford to invest in PMS but willing for lesser amount in equity.'),
(10560, 29, 1557, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 05:42:56'),
(10561, 29, 1557, 'submit_ip', '117.194.229.209'),
(10562, 29, 1558, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10563, 29, 1558, 'text-604', 'Sandeep Singh'),
(10564, 29, 1558, 'email-510', 'sansak14@gmail.com'),
(10565, 29, 1558, 'tel-299', '08377051425'),
(10566, 29, 1558, 'your-message', 'Would like to speak to a portfolio/Cr manager '),
(10567, 29, 1558, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 05:47:12'),
(10568, 29, 1558, 'submit_ip', '49.36.142.32'),
(10569, 28, 1559, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10570, 28, 1559, 'text-996', 'Pradeep Bahuguna'),
(10571, 28, 1559, 'email-563', 'Pradeepbahugunaa@gmail.com'),
(10572, 28, 1559, 'tel-182', '9712902305'),
(10573, 28, 1559, 'your-message', 'I wish to associate with you and explore my own strengths in stock analysis and expanding business opportunities. '),
(10574, 28, 1559, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 07:14:06'),
(10575, 28, 1559, 'submit_ip', '122.179.160.9'),
(10576, 29, 1560, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10577, 29, 1560, 'text-604', 'R.RAGHAVAN'),
(10578, 29, 1560, 'email-510', 'RAGHY98@YAHOO.COM'),
(10579, 29, 1560, 'tel-299', '09940685909'),
(10580, 29, 1560, 'your-message', 'Want to invest in your PMS. How do I go about it. '),
(10581, 29, 1560, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 09:36:26'),
(10582, 29, 1560, 'submit_ip', '49.206.125.74'),
(10583, 28, 1561, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10584, 28, 1561, 'text-996', 'Himanshu Parwal'),
(10585, 28, 1561, 'email-563', 'himanshu@parwal.net'),
(10586, 28, 1561, 'tel-182', '9341364430'),
(10587, 28, 1561, 'your-message', 'Coming from Bangalore. In Mumbai tomorrow and day after. Want to meet for Distributor tie up. Request for concern managers contact details'),
(10588, 28, 1561, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 10:36:08'),
(10589, 28, 1561, 'submit_ip', '106.51.109.79'),
(10590, 29, 1562, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10591, 29, 1562, 'text-604', 'Gagan Singh'),
(10592, 29, 1562, 'email-510', 'gagan71@gmail.com'),
(10593, 29, 1562, 'tel-299', '7406078888'),
(10594, 29, 1562, 'your-message', 'Keen to understand the CCP portfolio '),
(10595, 29, 1562, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 12:18:04'),
(10596, 29, 1562, 'submit_ip', '1.39.172.7'),
(10597, 29, 1563, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10598, 29, 1563, 'text-604', 'Sreenivasa'),
(10599, 29, 1563, 'email-510', 'bumjickt@gmail.com'),
(10600, 29, 1563, 'tel-299', '9392198003'),
(10601, 29, 1563, 'your-message', 'Want to know about PMS'),
(10602, 29, 1563, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 17:32:39'),
(10603, 29, 1563, 'submit_ip', '106.200.153.138'),
(10604, 1662, 1564, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10605, 1662, 1564, 'your-name', 'Kunal Adhikary'),
(10606, 1662, 1564, 'your-email', 'shauntait.kunal@gmail.com'),
(10607, 1662, 1564, 'tel-309', '7903312271'),
(10608, 1662, 1564, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 17:50:14'),
(10609, 1662, 1564, 'submit_ip', '45.112.146.156'),
(10610, 1662, 1565, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10611, 1662, 1565, 'your-name', 'Satish Arora'),
(10612, 1662, 1565, 'your-email', 'satisharora@lyraglassware.com'),
(10613, 1662, 1565, 'tel-309', '9899071130'),
(10614, 1662, 1565, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 18:05:51'),
(10615, 1662, 1565, 'submit_ip', '103.77.2.57'),
(10616, 1662, 1566, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10617, 1662, 1566, 'your-name', 'Manohar singh jain'),
(10618, 1662, 1566, 'your-email', 'jain.manohar@gmail.com'),
(10619, 1662, 1566, 'tel-309', '9820011204'),
(10620, 1662, 1566, 'submit_time', '2019-10-17 20:25:48'),
(10621, 1662, 1566, 'submit_ip', '100.38.140.169'),
(10622, 29, 1567, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10623, 29, 1567, 'text-604', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
(10624, 29, 1567, 'email-510', 'vineetwadhwani@sleeksales.com'),
(10625, 29, 1567, 'tel-299', '09811084887'),
(10626, 29, 1567, 'your-message', 'Can you call me please. Would like to invest. I am based in Gurgaon.\r\nRegards\r\n'),
(10627, 29, 1567, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 02:18:25'),
(10628, 29, 1567, 'submit_ip', '182.68.26.151'),
(10629, 29, 1568, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10630, 29, 1568, 'text-604', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
(10631, 29, 1568, 'email-510', 'vineetwadhwani@sleeksales.com'),
(10632, 29, 1568, 'tel-299', '09811084887'),
(10633, 29, 1568, 'your-message', 'Can you call me please. Would like to invest. I am based in Gurgaon.\r\nRegards\r\n'),
(10634, 29, 1568, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 02:18:26'),
(10635, 29, 1568, 'submit_ip', '182.68.26.151'),
(10636, 29, 1569, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10637, 29, 1569, 'text-604', 'Anurag Malpani '),
(10638, 29, 1569, 'email-510', 'anuragmalpani@gmail.com'),
(10639, 29, 1569, 'tel-299', '9987181765'),
(10640, 29, 1569, 'your-message', 'Let me know some details around product and fees.  Preferable time to contact us over weekend.  '),
(10641, 29, 1569, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 04:22:13'),
(10642, 29, 1569, 'submit_ip', '49.32.59.46'),
(10643, 28, 1570, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10644, 28, 1570, 'text-996', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
(10645, 28, 1570, 'email-563', 'vineetwadhwani@sleeksales.com'),
(10646, 28, 1570, 'tel-182', '09811084887'),
(10647, 28, 1570, 'your-message', 'So difficult to contact you over your phone. No answer. Even at 1045'),
(10648, 28, 1570, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 05:15:05'),
(10649, 28, 1570, 'submit_ip', '106.202.117.49'),
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(10651, 29, 1571, 'text-604', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
(10652, 29, 1571, 'email-510', 'vineetwadhwani@sleeksales.com'),
(10653, 29, 1571, 'tel-299', '09811084887'),
(10654, 29, 1571, 'your-message', 'Wanted to speak to someone. Can you call back please. No number on your website. And the number available on internet gets no answer'),
(10655, 29, 1571, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 05:15:57'),
(10656, 29, 1571, 'submit_ip', '106.202.117.49'),
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(10658, 1662, 1572, 'your-name', 'ALPESH SHAH'),
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(10662, 1662, 1572, 'submit_ip', '122.169.49.91'),
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(10664, 1662, 1573, 'your-name', 'aayush shah'),
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(10668, 1662, 1573, 'submit_ip', '122.169.49.91'),
(10669, 28, 1574, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10670, 28, 1574, 'text-996', 'Siddharth Singhvi'),
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(10672, 28, 1574, 'tel-182', '09769330411'),
(10673, 28, 1574, 'your-message', 'Hi Team,\r\n\r\nA client of mine attended Saurabh\'s session that we did for the CompAct AIF but he wasn\'t able to participate in that. Now he wanted to do the consistent compounder PMS and wanted to know the current holding, PMS performance since inception and the churn. Please let me know if you can assist me with same.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nSiddharth '),
(10674, 28, 1574, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 06:59:57'),
(10675, 28, 1574, 'submit_ip', '106.51.139.142'),
(10676, 29, 1575, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10677, 29, 1575, 'text-604', 'Prateek Rawat'),
(10678, 29, 1575, 'email-510', 'prateek15r@yahoo.com'),
(10679, 29, 1575, 'tel-299', '09799139009'),
(10680, 29, 1575, 'your-message', 'I want to know more about your PMS services, procedure and past returns.'),
(10681, 29, 1575, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 07:22:55'),
(10682, 29, 1575, 'submit_ip', '49.206.187.169'),
(10683, 29, 1576, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10684, 29, 1576, 'text-604', 'vineet wadhwani'),
(10685, 29, 1576, 'email-510', 'vineetwadhwani@sleeksales.com'),
(10686, 29, 1576, 'tel-299', '9811084887'),
(10687, 29, 1576, 'your-message', 'Sad that no one calls back or writes back. Your phone number is never picked up. This is scary. I want to invest in Marcellus but these things are a turn off really.\r\nJust try dialling your only contact number on the net. Try 15 time. No response. Spoke to Shetty once after 15 attempts. No call back from your Delhi team despite his assurance\r\n'),
(10688, 29, 1576, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 07:33:07'),
(10689, 29, 1576, 'submit_ip', '106.201.30.234'),
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(10691, 28, 1577, 'text-996', 'Sahil Arora'),
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(10693, 28, 1577, 'tel-182', '9654622513'),
(10694, 28, 1577, 'your-message', 'I need 3 forms for Marcellus Consistent Compounder Fund '),
(10695, 28, 1577, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 07:37:05'),
(10696, 28, 1577, 'submit_ip', '180.151.81.250'),
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(10698, 29, 1578, 'text-604', 'Madhu Jain'),
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(10701, 29, 1578, 'your-message', 'HV some senior representative contact me'),
(10702, 29, 1578, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 07:55:37'),
(10703, 29, 1578, 'submit_ip', '223.184.160.59'),
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(10705, 29, 1579, 'text-604', 'Madhu Jain'),
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(10708, 29, 1579, 'your-message', 'HV some senior representative contact me'),
(10709, 29, 1579, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 07:55:38'),
(10710, 29, 1579, 'submit_ip', '223.184.160.59'),
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(10712, 1662, 1580, 'your-name', 'ashwin nighojkar'),
(10713, 1662, 1580, 'your-email', 'kumar24nighojkar@gmail.com'),
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(10715, 1662, 1580, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 08:14:14'),
(10716, 1662, 1580, 'submit_ip', '49.36.31.190'),
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(10718, 1662, 1581, 'your-name', 'Guneet'),
(10719, 1662, 1581, 'your-email', 'guneetsahni@gmail.com'),
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(10721, 1662, 1581, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 09:56:08'),
(10722, 1662, 1581, 'submit_ip', '198.147.160.75'),
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(10724, 29, 1582, 'text-604', 'C P RAJARAJAN'),
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(10726, 29, 1582, 'tel-299', '09840430083'),
(10727, 29, 1582, 'your-message', 'Iam interested in your PMS. Pl call me or give me a number to call. Thanks'),
(10728, 29, 1582, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 10:05:47'),
(10729, 29, 1582, 'submit_ip', '27.62.27.13'),
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(10733, 29, 1583, 'tel-299', '09840430083'),
(10734, 29, 1583, 'your-message', 'Iam interested in your PMS. Pl call me or give me a number to call. Thanks'),
(10735, 29, 1583, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 10:05:50'),
(10736, 29, 1583, 'submit_ip', '27.62.27.13'),
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(10744, 1662, 1585, 'your-name', 'BAL KISHAN MUNDHRA'),
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(10747, 1662, 1585, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 10:29:41'),
(10748, 1662, 1585, 'submit_ip', '42.110.148.40'),
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(10750, 1662, 1586, 'your-name', 'Balaji Chellappa'),
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(10756, 1662, 1587, 'your-name', 'Balaji Chellappa'),
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(10760, 1662, 1587, 'submit_ip', '1.39.187.109'),
(10761, 28, 1588, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10762, 28, 1588, 'text-996', 'Ajay Kumar nath'),
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(10764, 28, 1588, 'tel-182', '9435007473'),
(10765, 28, 1588, 'your-message', 'As an individual can I make investment through you. If so what is the process.'),
(10766, 28, 1588, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 11:37:51'),
(10767, 28, 1588, 'submit_ip', '49.37.8.119'),
(10768, 29, 1589, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10769, 29, 1589, 'text-604', 'Alok Malpani'),
(10770, 29, 1589, 'email-510', 'alokmalpani@gmail.com'),
(10771, 29, 1589, 'tel-299', '0982 028 6070'),
(10772, 29, 1589, 'your-message', 'Interested in a Mid Cap bais PMS with Consistent Compounders philosophy'),
(10773, 29, 1589, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 12:44:41'),
(10774, 29, 1589, 'submit_ip', '49.33.232.36'),
(10775, 1662, 1590, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10776, 1662, 1590, 'your-name', 'Saikat Roy'),
(10777, 1662, 1590, 'your-email', 'saikat.roy.21@gmail.com'),
(10778, 1662, 1590, 'tel-309', '9820998779'),
(10779, 1662, 1590, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 12:54:00'),
(10780, 1662, 1590, 'submit_ip', '112.79.77.229'),
(10781, 29, 1591, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10782, 29, 1591, 'text-604', 'Saurabh Shukla'),
(10783, 29, 1591, 'email-510', 'metamorphoseprojects@gmail.com'),
(10784, 29, 1591, 'tel-299', '9125254111'),
(10785, 29, 1591, 'your-message', 'More information.\r\nWe are metamorphose projects LLP, a family office setup.\r\n\r\nLike to know more information.'),
(10786, 29, 1591, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 14:08:29'),
(10787, 29, 1591, 'submit_ip', '106.209.187.105'),
(10788, 28, 1592, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10789, 28, 1592, 'text-996', '9 Financial Advisor Services LLP'),
(10790, 28, 1592, 'email-563', '9FinancialServices@gmail.com'),
(10791, 28, 1592, 'tel-182', '9823288800'),
(10792, 28, 1592, 'your-message', 'Empanellment for PMS business'),
(10793, 28, 1592, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 14:48:49'),
(10794, 28, 1592, 'submit_ip', '106.220.154.56'),
(10795, 1662, 1593, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10796, 1662, 1593, 'your-name', 'Ritesh Khanna '),
(10797, 1662, 1593, 'your-email', 'khanna.ritesh@gmail.com'),
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(10799, 1662, 1593, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 15:59:26'),
(10800, 1662, 1593, 'submit_ip', '115.97.114.209'),
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(10802, 1662, 1594, 'your-name', 'Saurrabh S Kadam'),
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(10804, 1662, 1594, 'tel-309', '7972207208'),
(10805, 1662, 1594, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 16:46:44'),
(10806, 1662, 1594, 'submit_ip', '157.45.54.17'),
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(10808, 1662, 1595, 'your-name', 'Akash'),
(10809, 1662, 1595, 'your-email', 'akashhshah25@gmail.com'),
(10810, 1662, 1595, 'tel-309', '9925123445'),
(10811, 1662, 1595, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 17:27:51'),
(10812, 1662, 1595, 'submit_ip', '42.106.43.113'),
(10813, 1662, 1596, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10814, 1662, 1596, 'your-name', 'Narendra Kale'),
(10815, 1662, 1596, 'your-email', 'narendra.babu2006@gmail.com'),
(10816, 1662, 1596, 'tel-309', '09844563849'),
(10817, 1662, 1596, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 18:10:13'),
(10818, 1662, 1596, 'submit_ip', '157.49.221.29'),
(10819, 28, 1597, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10820, 28, 1597, 'text-996', 'Rafaeldof'),
(10821, 28, 1597, 'email-563', 'dcbtcsystem@gmail.com'),
(10822, 28, 1597, 'tel-182', '87325118854'),
(10823, 28, 1597, 'your-message', 'Short-term investments in a global international project based on the blockchain platform! \r\nThe project is fully automated and decentralized! \r\n \r\nAll bitcoins are stored on the accounts (bitcoin wallets) of the participants themselves and are transferred to each other using the Bitcoin cryptocurrency. \r\n \r\n+10% in 2 days! \r\n+1500% per month \r\n \r\n3 levels of referral bonuses. \r\n \r\n5% \r\n3% \r\n1% \r\n \r\nReferral bonuses are paid the next day! \r\nOfficial site:  https://www.crypto-mmm.site \r\n \r\n \r\nBlockchain project based on mathematical algorithms of the Mavrodi brothers.'),
(10824, 28, 1597, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(10825, 28, 1597, 'submit_time', '2019-10-18 21:55:45'),
(10826, 28, 1597, 'submit_ip', '84.17.61.143'),
(10827, 1662, 1598, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10828, 1662, 1598, 'your-name', 'prakash'),
(10829, 1662, 1598, 'your-email', 'prakash.v@gmail.com'),
(10830, 1662, 1598, 'tel-309', '9443660911'),
(10831, 1662, 1598, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 01:15:07'),
(10832, 1662, 1598, 'submit_ip', '103.5.135.74'),
(10833, 29, 1599, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10834, 29, 1599, 'text-604', 'Nimai Chandra Ghosh'),
(10835, 29, 1599, 'email-510', 'd.ghosh7@yahoo.com'),
(10836, 29, 1599, 'tel-299', '9903879050'),
(10837, 29, 1599, 'your-message', 'Hi, Im travelling so can email only. I would like to invest in CCP PMS. How do I go about it. \r\nRegards,\r\nNC Ghosh '),
(10838, 29, 1599, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 04:01:42'),
(10839, 29, 1599, 'submit_ip', '5.44.25.122'),
(10840, 29, 1600, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10841, 29, 1600, 'text-604', 'Vishal Krishan Adya '),
(10842, 29, 1600, 'email-510', 'vishalkrishanadya@gmail.com'),
(10843, 29, 1600, 'tel-299', '9876608002'),
(10844, 29, 1600, 'your-message', 'Would like to understand and invest '),
(10845, 29, 1600, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:07:56'),
(10846, 29, 1600, 'submit_ip', '106.205.187.168'),
(10847, 1662, 1601, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10848, 1662, 1601, 'your-name', 'prashant sharma'),
(10849, 1662, 1601, 'your-email', 'prashant.111186@yahoo.co.in'),
(10850, 1662, 1601, 'tel-309', '9910072014'),
(10851, 1662, 1601, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:08:58'),
(10852, 1662, 1601, 'submit_ip', '182.76.224.158'),
(10853, 28, 1602, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10854, 28, 1602, 'text-996', 'BEGUR DINAKAR'),
(10855, 28, 1602, 'email-563', 'begurdinakar@yahoo.com'),
(10856, 28, 1602, 'tel-182', '00971505106194'),
(10857, 28, 1602, 'your-message', 'I am interested to invest in your funds.\r\ni am nri. \r\npl let me know paperwork required.\r\ni have pan , KYC  etc and already investing in mutual funds.\r\nthanks '),
(10858, 28, 1602, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:20:40'),
(10859, 28, 1602, 'submit_ip', '83.110.6.67'),
(10860, 29, 1603, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10861, 29, 1603, 'text-604', 'BEGUR DINAKAR'),
(10862, 29, 1603, 'email-510', 'begurdinakar@yahoo.com'),
(10863, 29, 1603, 'tel-299', '00971505106194'),
(10864, 29, 1603, 'your-message', 'dear Sir\r\nI am NRI and interested in your funds.\r\npl let me know the paper work required.\r\nthanks'),
(10865, 29, 1603, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:22:43'),
(10866, 29, 1603, 'submit_ip', '83.110.6.67'),
(10867, 1662, 1604, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10868, 1662, 1604, 'your-name', 'HRIDESH RAJ'),
(10869, 1662, 1604, 'your-email', 'hridesh99raj@gmail.com'),
(10870, 1662, 1604, 'tel-309', '07506028967'),
(10871, 1662, 1604, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:28:53'),
(10872, 1662, 1604, 'submit_ip', '43.225.19.112'),
(10873, 1662, 1605, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10874, 1662, 1605, 'your-name', 'Vinod kumar bisht'),
(10875, 1662, 1605, 'your-email', 'vinodbisht25@gmail.com'),
(10876, 1662, 1605, 'tel-309', '09717297772'),
(10877, 1662, 1605, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 06:36:58'),
(10878, 1662, 1605, 'submit_ip', '182.68.203.205'),
(10879, 1662, 1606, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10880, 1662, 1606, 'your-name', 'Deepak'),
(10881, 1662, 1606, 'your-email', 'phew1inin@yahoo.com'),
(10882, 1662, 1606, 'tel-309', '0000000000'),
(10883, 1662, 1606, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 07:05:06'),
(10884, 1662, 1606, 'submit_ip', '122.180.194.95'),
(10885, 29, 1607, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10886, 29, 1607, 'text-604', 'Gururaja Rao'),
(10887, 29, 1607, 'email-510', 'gururajarao1@icloud.com'),
(10888, 29, 1607, 'tel-299', '9080654174'),
(10889, 29, 1607, 'your-message', 'Equity investment. '),
(10890, 29, 1607, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 07:08:46'),
(10891, 29, 1607, 'submit_ip', '157.46.11.85'),
(10892, 29, 1608, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10893, 29, 1608, 'text-604', 'Gururaja Rao'),
(10894, 29, 1608, 'email-510', 'gururajarao1@icloud.com'),
(10895, 29, 1608, 'tel-299', '9080654174'),
(10896, 29, 1608, 'your-message', 'Equity investment. '),
(10897, 29, 1608, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 07:08:47'),
(10898, 29, 1608, 'submit_ip', '157.46.11.85'),
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(10900, 29, 1609, 'text-604', 'Gururaja Rao'),
(10901, 29, 1609, 'email-510', 'gururajarao1@icloud.com'),
(10902, 29, 1609, 'tel-299', '9080654174'),
(10903, 29, 1609, 'your-message', 'PMS'),
(10904, 29, 1609, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 07:09:27'),
(10905, 29, 1609, 'submit_ip', '157.46.11.85'),
(10906, 1662, 1610, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10907, 1662, 1610, 'your-name', 'sreedhar'),
(10908, 1662, 1610, 'your-email', 'masreedhar.blr@gmail.com'),
(10909, 1662, 1610, 'tel-309', '9901625390'),
(10910, 1662, 1610, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 07:16:16'),
(10911, 1662, 1610, 'submit_ip', '183.83.205.168'),
(10912, 1662, 1611, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10913, 1662, 1611, 'your-name', 'Saurabh Gupta'),
(10914, 1662, 1611, 'your-email', 'saurabh.gupta@dixoninfo.com'),
(10915, 1662, 1611, 'tel-309', '9818002624'),
(10916, 1662, 1611, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 08:06:20'),
(10917, 1662, 1611, 'submit_ip', '182.75.231.194'),
(10918, 28, 1612, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10919, 28, 1612, 'text-996', 'SREEKUMAR N'),
(10920, 28, 1612, 'email-563', 'sreekn@live.com'),
(10921, 28, 1612, 'tel-182', '09900502740'),
(10922, 28, 1612, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nWant to invest in your consistent compounder PMS.Please let me  know the formalities.\r\nRegards\r\nSree\r\n'),
(10923, 28, 1612, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 08:46:35'),
(10924, 28, 1612, 'submit_ip', '106.200.254.255'),
(10925, 1662, 1613, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10926, 1662, 1613, 'your-name', 'Technobari.com'),
(10927, 1662, 1613, 'your-email', 'technobarishose@gmail.com'),
(10928, 1662, 1613, 'tel-309', '84764259852'),
(10929, 1662, 1613, 'submit', 'Send'),
(10930, 1662, 1613, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 09:39:01'),
(10931, 1662, 1613, 'submit_ip', '92.244.96.108'),
(10932, 29, 1614, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10933, 29, 1614, 'text-604', 'Subramaniam Iyer'),
(10934, 29, 1614, 'email-510', 'subramaniam.iyer1986@gmail.com'),
(10935, 29, 1614, 'tel-299', '+971-521566199'),
(10936, 29, 1614, 'your-message', 'Hello, I am an NRI &amp; have an existing equity portfolio which I can no longer devote time to.  Am looking for someone with excellent credentials to manage &amp; compound my savings/wealth in a sustainable manner.  My question to you is can I as an NRI look at your existing PMS product? I would like to understand the product features etc.?  I will be flying down to Mumbai before the end of this year, perhaps we can meet up in person to discuss your offering?'),
(10937, 29, 1614, 'submit_time', '2019-10-19 10:45:32'),
(10938, 29, 1614, 'submit_ip', '2.49.189.241'),
(10939, 29, 1615, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(10940, 29, 1615, 'text-604', 'Amareswar Reddy Polimera'),
(10941, 29, 1615, 'email-510', 'amareswar.polimera@gmail.com'),
(10942, 29, 1615, 'tel-299', '8482200725'),
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(12148, 28, 1810, 'your-message', 'Hello! \r\nWe hasten to congratulate You on your victory in the &quot;Bonus Email&quot; campaign. \r\nOur system has chosen Your marcellus.in among millions of other members. \r\nThis means that you are already the owner of one of our main prizes - cash, in the amount of 200 to 40,000 dollars, equipment from Apple or Mercedes Car, worth more than 50,000 dollars. \r\nTo determine what prize You will get, go to the official page of the promotion &quot;Bonus Email&quot; link: \r\n \r\nPick up your prize &gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;   http://bit.ly/33QH1NL \r\n \r\nGood luck and have a nice day! \r\nSincerely, Michael, bonus Email campaign Manager.'),
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(12324, 28, 1838, 'your-message', 'I am unable to subscribe to newsletter, pl check website link'),
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(12331, 29, 1839, 'your-message', 'As a webmaster, do you feel so busy but empty and lonely?\r\n\r\nWe are running a campaign only for webmasters. \r\nIt provides an opportunity for you to release your emotions.\r\n\r\nLargest Affair Site In The World\r\nOver 30 Million Members\r\nCosts Nothing To Join\r\n==https://www.thelocation3.com/hookup ==\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nJoanie Alcine\r\n\r\nto unsubscribe, click\r\nHere: https://www.thelocation3.com/unsubscribe\r\n'),
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(12344, 29, 1841, 'your-message', 'Iam interested in investing 25 Lakhs in your PMS'),
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(12351, 29, 1842, 'your-message', 'I had sent a request on Monday for PMS details. Nobody has connected with me yet'),
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(12373, 29, 1846, 'text-604', 'Kamalesh Kumar Sharma'),
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(12395, 28, 1849, 'your-message', 'Hi marcellus.in webmaster, \r\n \r\n \r\nSee, ClickBank is going to BREAK the Internet. \r\nThey’re doing something SO CRAZY, it might just tear the Internet at its seams. \r\n \r\nInstead of selling our 3-Part “ClickBank Breaks The Internet” Extravaganza Series… They’re giving it to you at no cost but you need to get it now or it will be gone! \r\n \r\nGET YOUR COPY NOW! Download The “$1k Commission Manual&quot;: https://1kmanual.com \r\n \r\nHere’s to kicking off the Fall season right!'),
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(12466, 28, 1860, 'your-message', 'https://connect.remonetized.org is having a massive sale this October, banner ads are now just 20 cents!! Target your customers by location, device, OS, browser, keywords and more! Campaigns start from $5, and with a $5 deposit you receive $5 bonus absolutely free! It’s completely free to sign up and just takes a moment, so join us today and boost your sales! \r\n \r\nThank you, we look forward to your response \r\nadmin@demonetized.info'),
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(13190, 29, 1972, 'your-message', 'Dear sir, I am looking for PMS.\r\nHave some queries..\r\n1- is there any exit load/ Lock-in period ?\r\n2- Three options were given for fees &amp; profit sharing. I want clarification regarding whether do select different stocks for these differential fees options or stocks are same for all three options ?\r\n3- can I watch stocks in which My fund would be invested in ?'),
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(13209, 29, 1975, 'your-message', 'Sir, \r\nI am a resident of Davangere, Karnataka State. I\'ve been introduced by my friend to open a demat account in BgSE Financials Ltd in 2003 &amp; since then I\'ve made a practice of trading in a stock market. Now for the last 1 year, I again entered the market with some amount of 1.5 lakhs. Due to panic selling of my decisions, if I\'ve incurred some losses too. After watching your videos on youtube, now I\'ve decided to take a professional advice for my portfolio of 20 stocks.Please advice.'),
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(13254, 29, 1982, 'your-message', 'Sir I want to be part of your PMS. What is the initial capital to start with'),
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(13256, 29, 1982, 'submit_ip', '157.35.228.14'),
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(13261, 29, 1983, 'your-message', 'Want to know details about your PMS details and fees structure'),
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(13289, 29, 1987, 'your-message', 'i am interested in your investment style and method and would like to invest '),
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(13296, 29, 1988, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest 25-50L. I have never invested before so not sure how to go about it. I would appreciate if you can send across details via email.'),
(13297, 29, 1988, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 04:13:25'),
(13298, 29, 1988, 'submit_ip', '98.228.20.179'),
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(13310, 1662, 1990, 'submit_ip', '1.144.105.35'),
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(13312, 29, 1991, 'text-604', 'Rajeev Agarwal'),
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(13315, 29, 1991, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am interested in your PMS offering. Kindly contact me on 29th Oct'),
(13316, 29, 1991, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 08:14:05'),
(13317, 29, 1991, 'submit_ip', '103.249.238.186'),
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(13322, 28, 1992, 'your-message', 'Hi!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nHave you ever heard that you can send a message through the contact form? \r\nThese forms are located on many sites. We sent you our message in the same way, and the fact that you received and read it shows the effectiveness of this method of sending messages. \r\nSince people in any case will read the message received through the contact form. \r\nOur database includes more than 35 million websites from all over the world. \r\nThe cost of sending one million messages 49 USD. \r\nThere is a discount program for large orders. \r\n \r\nFree trial mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your selection. \r\n \r\nThis message is created automatically. Please use the contact details below to contact us. \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - feedbackform@make-success.com'),
(13323, 28, 1992, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(13325, 28, 1992, 'submit_ip', '84.17.51.122'),
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(13330, 29, 1993, 'your-message', 'I am interested in the PMS service'),
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(13332, 29, 1993, 'submit_ip', '122.178.241.31'),
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(13334, 29, 1994, 'text-604', 'Ram Prasad Singh'),
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(13337, 29, 1994, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS. Request call back, if possible today right back.'),
(13338, 29, 1994, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 08:58:37'),
(13339, 29, 1994, 'submit_ip', '106.77.82.89'),
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(13341, 29, 1995, 'text-604', 'Indranil Mitra '),
(13342, 29, 1995, 'email-510', 'mitraindra@hotmail.com'),
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(13344, 29, 1995, 'your-message', 'Read all your books . Interested to invest with you .'),
(13345, 29, 1995, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 09:26:54'),
(13346, 29, 1995, 'submit_ip', '223.229.138.173'),
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(13348, 29, 1996, 'text-604', 'Indranil Mitra '),
(13349, 29, 1996, 'email-510', 'mitraindra@hotmail.com'),
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(13351, 29, 1996, 'your-message', 'Read all your books . Interested to invest with you .'),
(13352, 29, 1996, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 09:26:56'),
(13353, 29, 1996, 'submit_ip', '223.229.138.173'),
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(13358, 28, 1997, 'your-message', 'hi there \r\nI have just checked marcellus.in for the ranking keywords and to see your SEO metrics and found that you website could use a boost. \r\n \r\nWe will improve your SEO metrics and ranks organically and safely, using only whitehat methods \r\n \r\nPlease check our pricelist here, we offer SEO at cheap rates. \r\nhttps://www.hilkom-digital.de/cheap-seo-packages/ \r\n \r\nStart boosting your business sales and leads with us, today! \r\n \r\nregards \r\nHilkom Digital Team \r\nsupport@hilkom-digital.de'),
(13359, 28, 1997, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(13435, 1662, 2009, 'your-name', 'Gaurav Bajaj'),
(13436, 1662, 2009, 'your-email', 'gauravhbajaj@gmail.com'),
(13437, 1662, 2009, 'tel-309', '0466459940'),
(13438, 1662, 2009, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 18:07:17'),
(13439, 1662, 2009, 'submit_ip', '81.164.22.76'),
(13440, 1662, 2010, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13441, 1662, 2010, 'your-name', 'Utsav'),
(13442, 1662, 2010, 'your-email', 'utsav.nirma@gmail.com'),
(13443, 1662, 2010, 'tel-309', '9724720479'),
(13444, 1662, 2010, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 18:50:25'),
(13445, 1662, 2010, 'submit_ip', '106.222.8.132'),
(13446, 29, 2011, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13447, 29, 2011, 'text-604', 'Ashish Singal'),
(13448, 29, 2011, 'email-510', 'ashishsingal001@gmail.com'),
(13449, 29, 2011, 'tel-299', '9910336027'),
(13450, 29, 2011, 'your-message', 'Hi, I have been studying your investment philosophy for quite some time and have been listening to your interviews to understand it better. I found that you invest in companies with significant moats which is visible in your selected companies, however I am little apprehensive about Dr Lal Pathlabs. what sort of moat do you see in it. Though I understand growth is good , geographical opportunity is there to expand, no corporate gov. issue etc but why do you think it is not possible to disrupt it by other existing diagnostic companies or probably some new company which any big hospital chain might start in future. If you could throw some light on it.\r\nRegards'),
(13451, 29, 2011, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 19:57:58'),
(13452, 29, 2011, 'submit_ip', '45.125.63.46'),
(13453, 29, 2012, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13454, 29, 2012, 'text-604', 'Leta Esteban'),
(13455, 29, 2012, 'email-510', 'leta.esteban20@yahoo.com'),
(13456, 29, 2012, 'tel-299', '920-438-3546'),
(13457, 29, 2012, 'your-message', 'Would you like to promote your ad on 1000\'s of Advertising sites monthly? One tiny investment every month will get you virtually unlimited traffic to your site forever!For more information just visit: http://moreadsposted.n3t.store'),
(13458, 29, 2012, 'submit_time', '2019-10-28 23:03:28'),
(13459, 29, 2012, 'submit_ip', '104.245.145.9'),
(13460, 29, 2013, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13461, 29, 2013, 'text-604', 'Ankur'),
(13462, 29, 2013, 'email-510', 'ankur.bhanot1122@yahoo.in'),
(13463, 29, 2013, 'tel-299', '7889065800'),
(13464, 29, 2013, 'your-message', 'Want to enquire about ur minimum managment amount nd fees...thnks'),
(13465, 29, 2013, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 03:24:56'),
(13466, 29, 2013, 'submit_ip', '157.39.64.133'),
(13467, 29, 2014, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13468, 29, 2014, 'text-604', 'Girish Singh'),
(13469, 29, 2014, 'email-510', 'girish13@gmail.com'),
(13470, 29, 2014, 'tel-299', '9313704239'),
(13471, 29, 2014, 'your-message', 'Looking to open a PMS account'),
(13472, 29, 2014, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 03:50:47'),
(13473, 29, 2014, 'submit_ip', '115.110.127.154'),
(13474, 1662, 2015, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13475, 1662, 2015, 'your-name', 'Tapas R Satapathy'),
(13476, 1662, 2015, 'your-email', 'tapasrs@gmail.com'),
(13477, 1662, 2015, 'tel-309', '09108491968'),
(13478, 1662, 2015, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 04:13:11'),
(13479, 1662, 2015, 'submit_ip', '106.51.108.148'),
(13480, 28, 2016, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13481, 28, 2016, 'text-996', 'Anil Puri (3A FINCON)'),
(13482, 28, 2016, 'email-563', 'puricarpets@yahoo.com'),
(13483, 28, 2016, 'tel-182', '9023493840'),
(13484, 28, 2016, 'your-message', 'We are Distributors for financial products like Mutual Funds, Pms, AIF, Insurance, Bonds etc. We have Offices  at New Delhi and Amritsar. We have certain interest in your Pms. How can we proceed ?'),
(13485, 28, 2016, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 04:24:24'),
(13486, 28, 2016, 'submit_ip', '157.39.8.139'),
(13487, 29, 2017, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13488, 29, 2017, 'text-604', 'Amit Agnihotri'),
(13489, 29, 2017, 'email-510', 'a.agnihotri@mbauniverse.biz'),
(13490, 29, 2017, 'tel-299', '9810206655'),
(13491, 29, 2017, 'your-message', 'Hi. I am an investor based in Noida. Will like to know more about your PMS and other products. Will appreciate if someone senior with complete product understanding calls me. \r\nThanks. Amit '),
(13492, 29, 2017, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 05:03:19'),
(13493, 29, 2017, 'submit_ip', '122.177.175.92'),
(13494, 29, 2018, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13495, 29, 2018, 'text-604', 'Akshay'),
(13496, 29, 2018, 'email-510', 'akshayshetty2u@gmail.com'),
(13497, 29, 2018, 'tel-299', '8553115983'),
(13498, 29, 2018, 'your-message', 'What is the minimum investment to have a portfolio in your company'),
(13499, 29, 2018, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 07:48:22'),
(13500, 29, 2018, 'submit_ip', '106.206.125.33'),
(13501, 29, 2019, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13502, 29, 2019, 'text-604', 'kaushik'),
(13503, 29, 2019, 'email-510', 'bhattkaushik@hotmail.com'),
(13504, 29, 2019, 'tel-299', '9480013514'),
(13505, 29, 2019, 'your-message', 'Interested in opening PMS account'),
(13506, 29, 2019, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 09:26:20'),
(13507, 29, 2019, 'submit_ip', '115.254.39.20'),
(13508, 1662, 2020, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13509, 1662, 2020, 'your-name', 'Aparna Devi'),
(13510, 1662, 2020, 'your-email', 'aparnareddy.rv@gmail.com'),
(13511, 1662, 2020, 'tel-309', '9701112252'),
(13512, 1662, 2020, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 10:15:29'),
(13513, 1662, 2020, 'submit_ip', '42.111.153.25'),
(13514, 28, 2021, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13515, 28, 2021, 'text-996', 'Preetam singh'),
(13516, 28, 2021, 'email-563', 'preetam.elonmusk@gmail.com'),
(13517, 28, 2021, 'tel-182', '09958512485'),
(13518, 28, 2021, 'your-message', 'I would like to become PMS distributor in marcellus. '),
(13519, 28, 2021, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 10:18:23'),
(13520, 28, 2021, 'submit_ip', '157.47.237.85'),
(13521, 28, 2022, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13522, 28, 2022, 'text-996', 'arvind banta'),
(13523, 28, 2022, 'email-563', 'arvindban@gmail.com'),
(13524, 28, 2022, 'tel-182', '09811469648'),
(13525, 28, 2022, 'your-message', 'Would like to explore Marcellus PMS.Pl have someone call me.\r\nThanks'),
(13526, 28, 2022, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 10:18:25'),
(13527, 28, 2022, 'submit_ip', '182.69.182.166'),
(13528, 28, 2023, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13529, 28, 2023, 'text-996', 'Rajesh Lahoti '),
(13530, 28, 2023, 'email-563', 'rajeshlahoti2@yahoo.co.in'),
(13531, 28, 2023, 'tel-182', '9831095400'),
(13532, 28, 2023, 'your-message', 'Interested in investing '),
(13533, 28, 2023, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 11:45:39'),
(13534, 28, 2023, 'submit_ip', '122.163.37.177'),
(13535, 29, 2024, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13536, 29, 2024, 'text-604', 'Prashant'),
(13537, 29, 2024, 'email-510', 'pvrode@yahoo.co.in'),
(13538, 29, 2024, 'tel-299', '9769351550'),
(13539, 29, 2024, 'your-message', 'Want information for opening of new PMS account'),
(13540, 29, 2024, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 12:08:35'),
(13541, 29, 2024, 'submit_ip', '49.36.9.204'),
(13542, 1662, 2025, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13543, 1662, 2025, 'your-name', 'Krishna'),
(13544, 1662, 2025, 'your-email', 'krishnatata@gmail.com'),
(13545, 1662, 2025, 'tel-309', '2013144877'),
(13546, 1662, 2025, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 12:45:14'),
(13547, 1662, 2025, 'submit_ip', '107.77.106.49'),
(13548, 1662, 2026, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13549, 1662, 2026, 'your-name', 'Krishna'),
(13550, 1662, 2026, 'your-email', 'krishnatata@gmail.com'),
(13551, 1662, 2026, 'tel-309', '2013144877'),
(13552, 1662, 2026, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 12:45:15'),
(13553, 1662, 2026, 'submit_ip', '107.77.106.49'),
(13554, 29, 2027, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13555, 29, 2027, 'text-604', 'Anand Sadasivan'),
(13556, 29, 2027, 'email-510', 'msanandbabu@gmail.com'),
(13557, 29, 2027, 'tel-299', ''),
(13558, 29, 2027, 'your-message', 'Hi, interested in your PMS. Can an US based NRI invest in your PMS? I am planning to visit India in December. Please let me know at the earliest. Thanks.'),
(13559, 29, 2027, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 14:01:46'),
(13560, 29, 2027, 'submit_ip', '76.176.154.60'),
(13561, 1662, 2028, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13562, 1662, 2028, 'your-name', 'Arshad'),
(13563, 1662, 2028, 'your-email', 'arshad.saiyed@gmail.com'),
(13564, 1662, 2028, 'tel-309', '8527361155'),
(13565, 1662, 2028, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 14:24:51'),
(13566, 1662, 2028, 'submit_ip', '171.77.154.23'),
(13567, 29, 2029, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13568, 29, 2029, 'text-604', 'Chandrasekaran Sriram'),
(13569, 29, 2029, 'email-510', 'chand.sriram@gmail.com'),
(13570, 29, 2029, 'tel-299', '7358673485'),
(13571, 29, 2029, 'your-message', 'Kindly send the complete details of PMS at the earliest.'),
(13572, 29, 2029, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 16:14:08'),
(13573, 29, 2029, 'submit_ip', '49.207.130.33'),
(13574, 1662, 2030, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13575, 1662, 2030, 'your-name', 'Srinivas Mendu'),
(13576, 1662, 2030, 'your-email', 'srinivasmendu@yahoo.com'),
(13577, 1662, 2030, 'tel-309', '9052999982'),
(13578, 1662, 2030, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 16:16:40'),
(13579, 1662, 2030, 'submit_ip', '183.82.134.77'),
(13580, 29, 2031, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13581, 29, 2031, 'text-604', 'Mrs Usha '),
(13582, 29, 2031, 'email-510', 'usha1177@gmail.com'),
(13583, 29, 2031, 'tel-299', '9529806789'),
(13584, 29, 2031, 'your-message', 'I am interested to have views of Mr Sourab Mukherjee'),
(13585, 29, 2031, 'submit_time', '2019-10-29 18:05:07'),
(13586, 29, 2031, 'submit_ip', '157.47.205.209'),
(13587, 29, 2032, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13588, 29, 2032, 'text-604', 'Bijal Sanghavi'),
(13589, 29, 2032, 'email-510', 'bijalsanghavi@gmail.com'),
(13590, 29, 2032, 'tel-299', '9820397328'),
(13591, 29, 2032, 'your-message', 'Would like to invest with you. Do give me a call, so that we can take this forward.'),
(13592, 29, 2032, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 04:03:17'),
(13593, 29, 2032, 'submit_ip', '14.142.143.138'),
(13594, 29, 2033, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13595, 29, 2033, 'text-604', 'Jitender Yadav'),
(13596, 29, 2033, 'email-510', 'jitenderyadavtpm@gmail.com'),
(13597, 29, 2033, 'tel-299', '9958435793'),
(13598, 29, 2033, 'your-message', ''),
(13599, 29, 2033, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 04:15:44'),
(13600, 29, 2033, 'submit_ip', '106.207.161.192'),
(13601, 1662, 2034, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13602, 1662, 2034, 'your-name', 'aakash'),
(13603, 1662, 2034, 'your-email', 'aakashcharted@gmail.com'),
(13604, 1662, 2034, 'tel-309', '8080303091'),
(13605, 1662, 2034, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 05:01:10'),
(13606, 1662, 2034, 'submit_ip', '14.141.97.12'),
(13607, 29, 2035, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13608, 29, 2035, 'text-604', 'Giri Malpani'),
(13609, 29, 2035, 'email-510', 'Giridharmalpani@gmail.com'),
(13610, 29, 2035, 'tel-299', '09082860966'),
(13611, 29, 2035, 'your-message', 'Please indicate your Interests in opportunities in alternate assets of real estate.'),
(13612, 29, 2035, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 08:34:43'),
(13613, 29, 2035, 'submit_ip', '49.33.218.39'),
(13614, 28, 2036, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13615, 28, 2036, 'text-996', 'Josephcig'),
(13616, 28, 2036, 'email-563', 'traderscatalystindia@gmail.com'),
(13617, 28, 2036, 'tel-182', '87939877817'),
(13618, 28, 2036, 'your-message', 'Make your ‘Business\'s Online Face’ by registering  as a paid Supplier at India’s fastest growing B2B web portal by generating 14-Sections single page online profile. \r\n‘Sub-domain Website’ as: https://www.traderscatalyst.com/map-enterprises \r\nGet control over Sub-Domain Website with ‘Control Panel’ Login to Edit/Add Products, Video, Gallery, Newsroom, Brochure/Catalog, Certificates, Terms &amp; Conditions etc... \r\nGet ‘Branding’ along with ‘Exclusive’ potential Buyers Lead \r\nOne can Display  &amp; Benifit  through ‘Online Exhibition Sale’ feature  by displaying his wholesale  stocks for better trading possibilities. \r\nApart  one can reach &amp; target ‘Advertisement at City Page’ of choice  through Top &amp; Left-Right Banners. \r\n‘To-Experience’  please  visit http://www.traderscatalyst.com/.'),
(13619, 28, 2036, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(13620, 28, 2036, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 08:35:28'),
(13621, 28, 2036, 'submit_ip', '84.17.62.142'),
(13622, 29, 2037, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13623, 29, 2037, 'text-604', 'NILESH DASHRATHBHAI PATEL'),
(13624, 29, 2037, 'email-510', 'ndc_patel@Hotmail.com'),
(13625, 29, 2037, 'tel-299', '09898619054'),
(13626, 29, 2037, 'your-message', 'please send your product details.'),
(13627, 29, 2037, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 09:01:38'),
(13628, 29, 2037, 'submit_ip', '103.244.123.148'),
(13629, 1662, 2038, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13630, 1662, 2038, 'your-name', 'Magizhvathanan'),
(13631, 1662, 2038, 'your-email', 'mvadhanan@gmail.com'),
(13632, 1662, 2038, 'tel-309', '6384163250'),
(13633, 1662, 2038, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 09:27:28'),
(13634, 1662, 2038, 'submit_ip', '78.100.235.211'),
(13635, 28, 2039, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13636, 28, 2039, 'text-996', 'KARAN JAIN '),
(13637, 28, 2039, 'email-563', 'INVESTMENTAVENUE91@GMAIL.COM'),
(13638, 28, 2039, 'tel-182', '9953742551'),
(13639, 28, 2039, 'your-message', 'I WANT TO BEOME DISTRIBUTOR  FOR PMS PRODUCTS. I AM BASEDIN DELHI.'),
(13640, 28, 2039, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 10:07:24'),
(13641, 28, 2039, 'submit_ip', '103.195.201.36'),
(13642, 29, 2040, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13643, 29, 2040, 'text-604', 'Kartik Mehta '),
(13644, 29, 2040, 'email-510', 'kartik.mehta@pahalfinance.com'),
(13645, 29, 2040, 'tel-299', '+919099916363'),
(13646, 29, 2040, 'your-message', 'I would be interested in knowing more about your PMS offerings-Thank you'),
(13647, 29, 2040, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 12:18:19'),
(13648, 29, 2040, 'submit_ip', '42.108.200.39'),
(13649, 29, 2041, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13650, 29, 2041, 'text-604', 'Kartik Mehta '),
(13651, 29, 2041, 'email-510', 'kartik.mehta@pahalfinance.com'),
(13652, 29, 2041, 'tel-299', '+919099916363'),
(13653, 29, 2041, 'your-message', 'I would be interested in knowing more about your PMS offerings-Thank you'),
(13654, 29, 2041, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 12:18:21'),
(13655, 29, 2041, 'submit_ip', '42.108.200.39'),
(13656, 29, 2042, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13657, 29, 2042, 'text-604', 'Jomy Joseph'),
(13658, 29, 2042, 'email-510', 'jomyjoseph17@hotmail.com'),
(13659, 29, 2042, 'tel-299', '+96597295404'),
(13660, 29, 2042, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurav,\r\nI would like to start a SIP with you. My plan is to start with 1 lakh per month.\r\nI already have some stock holdings.\r\n\r\nPlease let me know about your services and how can you support me in my SIP planning.\r\n\r\nregards,\r\n\r\nJomy Joseph\r\n\r\nKuwait'),
(13661, 29, 2042, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 12:56:13'),
(13662, 29, 2042, 'submit_ip', '62.215.138.15'),
(13663, 1662, 2043, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13664, 1662, 2043, 'your-name', 'Manju'),
(13665, 1662, 2043, 'your-email', 'manju.kartik2001@gmail.com'),
(13666, 1662, 2043, 'tel-309', '7738378086'),
(13667, 1662, 2043, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 13:05:02'),
(13668, 1662, 2043, 'submit_ip', '103.108.13.150'),
(13669, 1662, 2044, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13670, 1662, 2044, 'your-name', 'Manju'),
(13671, 1662, 2044, 'your-email', 'manju.kartik2001@gmail.com'),
(13672, 1662, 2044, 'tel-309', '7738378086'),
(13673, 1662, 2044, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 13:05:04'),
(13674, 1662, 2044, 'submit_ip', '103.108.13.150'),
(13675, 1662, 2045, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13676, 1662, 2045, 'your-name', 'Rahul Kumar Sahu'),
(13677, 1662, 2045, 'your-email', 'kumarrahul9782@gmail.com'),
(13678, 1662, 2045, 'tel-309', '9559053565'),
(13679, 1662, 2045, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 13:27:58'),
(13680, 1662, 2045, 'submit_ip', '157.43.66.24'),
(13681, 1662, 2046, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13682, 1662, 2046, 'your-name', 'Rahul Kumar Sahu'),
(13683, 1662, 2046, 'your-email', 'kumarrahul9782@gmail.com'),
(13684, 1662, 2046, 'tel-309', '9559053565'),
(13685, 1662, 2046, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 13:39:59'),
(13686, 1662, 2046, 'submit_ip', '157.43.66.24'),
(13687, 29, 2047, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13688, 29, 2047, 'text-604', 'Sankardeep'),
(13689, 29, 2047, 'email-510', 'sankardeep.chakraborty@gmail.com'),
(13690, 29, 2047, 'tel-299', '9840216308'),
(13691, 29, 2047, 'your-message', 'I recently came across and read the book on coffee can investing. It really opened my eyes completely. Being sold over the technique and aupported by actual data, I would like to invest with you guys. Could you please let me know what are types of options I have? I am interested in basically knowing the whereabouts. You can reach me over e-mail and that is more preferable.'),
(13692, 29, 2047, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 14:28:37'),
(13693, 29, 2047, 'submit_ip', '119.229.69.68'),
(13694, 29, 2048, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13695, 29, 2048, 'text-604', 'Harminder Singh Arora'),
(13696, 29, 2048, 'email-510', 'harora1967@gmail.com'),
(13697, 29, 2048, 'tel-299', '09825005799'),
(13698, 29, 2048, 'your-message', 'Please send me all the information and blogs you write '),
(13699, 29, 2048, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 14:39:01'),
(13700, 29, 2048, 'submit_ip', '42.106.41.50'),
(13701, 1662, 2049, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13702, 1662, 2049, 'your-name', 'Sanjog'),
(13703, 1662, 2049, 'your-email', 'jichkar.sanjog@gmail.com'),
(13704, 1662, 2049, 'tel-309', '9619537330'),
(13705, 1662, 2049, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 17:23:54'),
(13706, 1662, 2049, 'submit_ip', '49.206.6.83'),
(13707, 29, 2050, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13708, 29, 2050, 'text-604', 'Amit Mittal'),
(13709, 29, 2050, 'email-510', 'amit.mittal66@gmail.com'),
(13710, 29, 2050, 'tel-299', '+960 7922901'),
(13711, 29, 2050, 'your-message', 'I wanted to a) get a financial plan done for myself ( can you recommend a good financial planning person)  and b) know more about your PMS and how to go about investing in it.  As I am presently overseas, is there some no. i can call on and speak to someone.  Thanks'),
(13712, 29, 2050, 'submit_time', '2019-10-30 17:25:03'),
(13713, 29, 2050, 'submit_ip', '209.212.218.38'),
(13714, 1662, 2051, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13715, 1662, 2051, 'your-name', 'Aditya '),
(13716, 1662, 2051, 'your-email', 'leoberbatov@gmail.com'),
(13717, 1662, 2051, 'tel-309', '7981120524'),
(13718, 1662, 2051, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 00:32:37'),
(13719, 1662, 2051, 'submit_ip', '157.39.254.78'),
(13720, 1662, 2052, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13721, 1662, 2052, 'your-name', 'Aditya '),
(13722, 1662, 2052, 'your-email', 'leoberbatov@gmail.com'),
(13723, 1662, 2052, 'tel-309', '7981120524'),
(13724, 1662, 2052, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 00:48:51'),
(13725, 1662, 2052, 'submit_ip', '157.39.254.78'),
(13726, 29, 2053, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13727, 29, 2053, 'text-604', 'Balu'),
(13728, 29, 2053, 'email-510', 'balu_unni@yahoo.co.in'),
(13729, 29, 2053, 'tel-299', '+971561245340'),
(13730, 29, 2053, 'your-message', 'Hello team, I would like to start a PMS account with your team . '),
(13731, 29, 2053, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 01:34:30'),
(13732, 29, 2053, 'submit_ip', '2.50.68.95'),
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(13734, 1662, 2054, 'your-name', 'Biren kapadia '),
(13735, 1662, 2054, 'your-email', 'shritibiren@gmail.com'),
(13736, 1662, 2054, 'tel-309', '9821044902'),
(13737, 1662, 2054, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 03:00:53'),
(13738, 1662, 2054, 'submit_ip', '42.106.192.168'),
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(13740, 1662, 2055, 'your-name', 'Vivek'),
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(13744, 1662, 2055, 'submit_ip', '27.34.17.170'),
(13745, 29, 2056, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13746, 29, 2056, 'text-604', 'Bala'),
(13747, 29, 2056, 'email-510', 'V1BALA@YAHOO.CO.UK'),
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(13749, 29, 2056, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\n\r\nWanted to know whether you have a midcap/ small cap portfolio as well for investment.\r\n\r\nWarm Regards\r\n\r\nBala'),
(13750, 29, 2056, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 04:30:05'),
(13751, 29, 2056, 'submit_ip', '122.179.38.3'),
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(13753, 1662, 2057, 'your-name', 'Tushar Aggarwal'),
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(13757, 1662, 2057, 'submit_ip', '110.225.69.35'),
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(13759, 29, 2058, 'text-604', 'Venkat'),
(13760, 29, 2058, 'email-510', 'sreepada123@gmail.com'),
(13761, 29, 2058, 'tel-299', '8433593125'),
(13762, 29, 2058, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI customer from UK. Would like to get more information on your PMS product. My contact number is +44-7766534401'),
(13763, 29, 2058, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 05:11:28'),
(13764, 29, 2058, 'submit_ip', '94.192.145.129'),
(13765, 29, 2059, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13766, 29, 2059, 'text-604', 'Venkat'),
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(13768, 29, 2059, 'tel-299', '8433593125'),
(13769, 29, 2059, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI customer from UK. Would like to get more information on your PMS product. My contact number is +44-7766534401'),
(13770, 29, 2059, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 05:11:28'),
(13771, 29, 2059, 'submit_ip', '94.192.145.129'),
(13772, 28, 2060, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13773, 28, 2060, 'text-996', 'Venkat'),
(13774, 28, 2060, 'email-563', 'sreepada123@gmail.com'),
(13775, 28, 2060, 'tel-182', '8433593125'),
(13776, 28, 2060, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI customer from UK. My contact number is +44-7766534401. Would like to get more information on your PMS product please. '),
(13777, 28, 2060, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 05:12:43'),
(13778, 28, 2060, 'submit_ip', '94.192.145.129'),
(13779, 29, 2061, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13780, 29, 2061, 'text-604', 'Debangshu Sarkar'),
(13781, 29, 2061, 'email-510', 'debangshusarkar@hotmail.com'),
(13782, 29, 2061, 'tel-299', '7760577844'),
(13783, 29, 2061, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS investment'),
(13784, 29, 2061, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 06:23:05'),
(13785, 29, 2061, 'submit_ip', '110.173.178.250'),
(13786, 29, 2062, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13787, 29, 2062, 'text-604', 'Punit Gosrani'),
(13788, 29, 2062, 'email-510', 'gosrani.punit@hotmail.co.in'),
(13789, 29, 2062, 'tel-299', '09820822962'),
(13790, 29, 2062, 'your-message', 'Request to send across details of your PMS.\r\nThanks,\r\nRegards,\r\nPunit Gosrani '),
(13791, 29, 2062, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 08:11:28'),
(13792, 29, 2062, 'submit_ip', '103.211.40.111'),
(13793, 29, 2063, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13794, 29, 2063, 'text-604', 'Punit Gosrani'),
(13795, 29, 2063, 'email-510', 'gosrani.punit@hotmail.co.in'),
(13796, 29, 2063, 'tel-299', '09820822962'),
(13797, 29, 2063, 'your-message', 'Request to send across details of your PMS.\r\nThanks,\r\nRegards,\r\nPunit Gosrani '),
(13798, 29, 2063, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 08:13:26'),
(13799, 29, 2063, 'submit_ip', '103.211.40.111'),
(13800, 29, 2064, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13801, 29, 2064, 'text-604', 'Dorie Fortenberry'),
(13802, 29, 2064, 'email-510', 'dorie.fortenberry@googlemail.com'),
(13803, 29, 2064, 'tel-299', '056 527 85 49'),
(13804, 29, 2064, 'your-message', 'Would you like to post your advertisement on 1000\'s of Advertising sites every month? For one small fee you\'ll get virtually unlimited traffic to your site forever! To find out more check out our site here: http://morebusiness.myadsubmissions.xyz'),
(13805, 29, 2064, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 08:51:19'),
(13806, 29, 2064, 'submit_ip', '104.245.144.41'),
(13807, 28, 2065, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13808, 28, 2065, 'text-996', 'Rohit Nair'),
(13809, 28, 2065, 'email-563', 'ravindranm31@gmail.com'),
(13810, 28, 2065, 'tel-182', '9820427698'),
(13811, 28, 2065, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI am a permanent resident in Canada and came across your investment strategy when surfing online. I also keenly follow Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea\'s views on air on TV. Based on my suggestion, my father Mr. Ravindran M, had contacted you with an interest to start investing with your firm. We haven\'t received a reply yet from your end.\r\nCould you kindly get in touch with my father, Mr. Ravindran M via phone on 9820427698 or via email at ravindranm31@gmail.com at your earliest convenience.\r\n\r\nwith regards,\r\n\r\nRohit Nair\r\n'),
(13812, 28, 2065, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 11:46:56'),
(13813, 28, 2065, 'submit_ip', '64.229.39.249'),
(13814, 29, 2066, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13815, 29, 2066, 'text-604', 'Rohit Nair'),
(13816, 29, 2066, 'email-510', 'ravindranm31@gmail.com'),
(13817, 29, 2066, 'tel-299', '9820427698'),
(13818, 29, 2066, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI am a permanent resident in Canada and came across your investment strategy when surfing online. I also keenly follow Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea\'s views on air on TV. Based on my suggestion, my father Mr. Ravindran M, had contacted you with an interest to start investing with your firm. We haven\'t received a reply yet from your end.\r\nCould you kindly get in touch with my father, Mr. Ravindran M via phone on 9820427698 or via email at ravindranm31@gmail.com at your earliest convenience.\r\n\r\nwith regards,\r\n\r\nRohit Nair'),
(13819, 29, 2066, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 11:47:42'),
(13820, 29, 2066, 'submit_ip', '64.229.39.249'),
(13821, 1662, 2067, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13822, 1662, 2067, 'your-name', 'Devanshi Sheth'),
(13823, 1662, 2067, 'your-email', 'devanshisheth92@gmail.com'),
(13824, 1662, 2067, 'tel-309', '9769971242'),
(13825, 1662, 2067, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 12:13:58'),
(13826, 1662, 2067, 'submit_ip', '122.170.37.115'),
(13827, 28, 2068, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13828, 28, 2068, 'text-996', 'Pramodh'),
(13829, 28, 2068, 'email-563', 'pramodhm@gmail.com'),
(13830, 28, 2068, 'tel-182', '+6598321758'),
(13831, 28, 2068, 'your-message', 'Hi,I am a non resident Indian and was keen to participate in PMS offerings.However given that I have an existing PIS account in my name,wouldnt be add any new trading account as part of PMS.Do you have an advisory offer where I can invest in the portfolio as per advise from your team but execute the trades in my existing trading/demat accounts?I can adhere to the same fee structure as the PMS fee structure.Would be keen to know if such an option is available.'),
(13832, 28, 2068, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 13:50:04'),
(13833, 28, 2068, 'submit_ip', '182.55.176.154'),
(13834, 1662, 2069, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13835, 1662, 2069, 'your-name', 'saif'),
(13836, 1662, 2069, 'your-email', 'infinityconsult2012@gmail.com'),
(13837, 1662, 2069, 'tel-309', '9844099229'),
(13838, 1662, 2069, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 14:49:43'),
(13839, 1662, 2069, 'submit_ip', '122.171.78.60'),
(13840, 29, 2070, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13841, 29, 2070, 'text-604', 'Prakash'),
(13842, 29, 2070, 'email-510', 'prakashchy@gmail.com'),
(13843, 29, 2070, 'tel-299', '9717494688'),
(13844, 29, 2070, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to explore PMS product with your firm. Kindly contact me.\r\nBest,\r\nPrakash'),
(13845, 29, 2070, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 15:08:14'),
(13846, 29, 2070, 'submit_ip', '182.70.4.8'),
(13847, 29, 2071, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13848, 29, 2071, 'text-604', 'Debangshu Sarkar'),
(13849, 29, 2071, 'email-510', 'debangshu@gmail.com'),
(13850, 29, 2071, 'tel-299', '9967367331'),
(13851, 29, 2071, 'your-message', 'Contact for PMS investment'),
(13852, 29, 2071, 'submit_time', '2019-10-31 15:59:29'),
(13853, 29, 2071, 'submit_ip', '106.209.241.39'),
(13854, 29, 2072, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13855, 29, 2072, 'text-604', 'Rohit'),
(13856, 29, 2072, 'email-510', 'rajputrohitnicin@gmail.com'),
(13857, 29, 2072, 'tel-299', '9739266631'),
(13858, 29, 2072, 'your-message', 'I want to invest in pms'),
(13859, 29, 2072, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 03:25:04'),
(13860, 29, 2072, 'submit_ip', '171.76.93.165'),
(13861, 1662, 2073, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13862, 1662, 2073, 'your-name', 'sanjeev'),
(13863, 1662, 2073, 'your-email', 'sanjeev@tahmohara.net'),
(13864, 1662, 2073, 'tel-309', '8879185553'),
(13865, 1662, 2073, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 03:46:22'),
(13866, 1662, 2073, 'submit_ip', '114.143.55.218'),
(13867, 29, 2074, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13868, 29, 2074, 'text-604', 'Amit Mittal'),
(13869, 29, 2074, 'email-510', 'amit.mittal66@gmail.com'),
(13870, 29, 2074, 'tel-299', '+960 7922901'),
(13871, 29, 2074, 'your-message', 'Please call or email me. The above no. is an international number but available on whatsapp.  Alternately if not able to call me, let me know a number i can call on. I had sent this message earlier as well but have not heard back. Thank you '),
(13872, 29, 2074, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 04:15:08'),
(13873, 29, 2074, 'submit_ip', '69.94.87.213'),
(13874, 1662, 2075, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13875, 1662, 2075, 'your-name', 'Vaishali Deshpande'),
(13876, 1662, 2075, 'your-email', 'sundesh-nv@hotmail.com'),
(13877, 1662, 2075, 'tel-309', '9370318800'),
(13878, 1662, 2075, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 04:53:09'),
(13879, 1662, 2075, 'submit_ip', '49.35.30.79'),
(13880, 28, 2076, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13881, 28, 2076, 'text-996', 'BEGUR DINAKAR'),
(13882, 28, 2076, 'email-563', 'begurdinakar@yahoo.com'),
(13883, 28, 2076, 'tel-182', '00971505106194'),
(13884, 28, 2076, 'your-message', 'I want start investment in your funds, Pl send me application form etc \r\nI am  NRI  and i will start with irs 2500000 pi guide me the steps.\r\nthanks'),
(13885, 28, 2076, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 05:13:01'),
(13886, 28, 2076, 'submit_ip', '5.107.54.157'),
(13887, 29, 2077, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13888, 29, 2077, 'text-604', 'Ananth Tharuvai'),
(13889, 29, 2077, 'email-510', 'ananth.tharuvai@gmail.com'),
(13890, 29, 2077, 'tel-299', '9740807119'),
(13891, 29, 2077, 'your-message', 'interested in your portfolio management service'),
(13892, 29, 2077, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 05:16:22'),
(13893, 29, 2077, 'submit_ip', '49.206.10.49'),
(13894, 29, 2078, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13895, 29, 2078, 'text-604', 'Ananth Tharuvai'),
(13896, 29, 2078, 'email-510', 'ananth.tharuvai@gmail.com'),
(13897, 29, 2078, 'tel-299', '9740807119'),
(13898, 29, 2078, 'your-message', 'interested in your portfolio management service'),
(13899, 29, 2078, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 05:25:19'),
(13900, 29, 2078, 'submit_ip', '49.206.10.49'),
(13901, 1662, 2079, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13902, 1662, 2079, 'your-name', 'KIRAN PHALAK'),
(13903, 1662, 2079, 'your-email', 'kiranphalak@gmail.com'),
(13904, 1662, 2079, 'tel-309', '9820747224'),
(13905, 1662, 2079, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 05:45:16'),
(13906, 1662, 2079, 'submit_ip', '27.106.11.203');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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(13908, 1662, 2080, 'your-name', 'sharad'),
(13909, 1662, 2080, 'your-email', 'apollo.bhadravati@gmail.com'),
(13910, 1662, 2080, 'tel-309', '9342273656'),
(13911, 1662, 2080, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 06:15:22'),
(13912, 1662, 2080, 'submit_ip', '117.196.253.91'),
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(13914, 1662, 2081, 'your-name', 'Priyanka Satra'),
(13915, 1662, 2081, 'your-email', 'priyanka@indwealth.in'),
(13916, 1662, 2081, 'tel-309', '9930673610'),
(13917, 1662, 2081, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 06:57:52'),
(13918, 1662, 2081, 'submit_ip', '103.199.94.226'),
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(13921, 1662, 2082, 'your-email', 'abhishek14482@gmail.com'),
(13922, 1662, 2082, 'tel-309', '9827840701'),
(13923, 1662, 2082, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 07:20:54'),
(13924, 1662, 2082, 'submit_ip', '136.233.32.252'),
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(13926, 1662, 2083, 'your-name', 'Manish Shah'),
(13927, 1662, 2083, 'your-email', 'man_yog@yahoo.co.in'),
(13928, 1662, 2083, 'tel-309', '09821074189'),
(13929, 1662, 2083, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 07:29:16'),
(13930, 1662, 2083, 'submit_ip', '103.26.58.141'),
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(13933, 1662, 2084, 'your-email', 'kalyanshekhar.k@gmail.com'),
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(13935, 1662, 2084, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 07:30:34'),
(13936, 1662, 2084, 'submit_ip', '49.37.194.130'),
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(13938, 1662, 2085, 'your-name', 'Manish Shah'),
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(13940, 1662, 2085, 'tel-309', '09821074189'),
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(13951, 1662, 2087, 'your-email', 'karthik.kamath07@yahoo.com'),
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(13954, 1662, 2087, 'submit_ip', '157.45.125.118'),
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(13956, 1662, 2088, 'your-name', 'Lavanya'),
(13957, 1662, 2088, 'your-email', 'lavanyamachiraju@gmail.com'),
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(13960, 1662, 2088, 'submit_ip', '106.209.187.163'),
(13961, 1662, 2089, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13962, 1662, 2089, 'your-name', 'Karthik'),
(13963, 1662, 2089, 'your-email', 'karthik.taduvai@gmail.com'),
(13964, 1662, 2089, 'tel-309', '8792606190'),
(13965, 1662, 2089, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 08:09:20'),
(13966, 1662, 2089, 'submit_ip', '115.113.84.150'),
(13967, 28, 2090, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13968, 28, 2090, 'text-996', 'Michaelrof'),
(13969, 28, 2090, 'email-563', 'robertmon@gmail.com'),
(13970, 28, 2090, 'tel-182', '89923937945'),
(13971, 28, 2090, 'your-message', 'Registration to the international project &quot;ELDORADO&quot; is open&quot; \r\nThe &quot;Eldorado&quot; project is currently the market leader in short-term investments in the blockchain-bitcoin community. \r\n \r\nInvestment program: \r\n \r\nInvestment currency: BTC. \r\nThe investment period is 2 days. \r\nMinimum profit is 10% \r\nThe minimum investment amount is 0.0025 BTC. \r\nThe maximum investment amount is 10 BTC .  \r\n9% Daily bonus to each member of the affiliate program.   \r\nRe-investment is available. \r\n \r\nRegistration here : https://eldor.cc#enbtc'),
(13972, 28, 2090, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(13973, 28, 2090, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 08:24:16'),
(13974, 28, 2090, 'submit_ip', '185.217.71.152'),
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(13976, 1662, 2091, 'your-name', 'VAIBHAV SHAH'),
(13977, 1662, 2091, 'your-email', 'vaibhavs@orowealth.com'),
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(13980, 1662, 2091, 'submit_ip', '14.143.131.86'),
(13981, 29, 2092, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(13982, 29, 2092, 'text-604', 'Srinivas KS'),
(13983, 29, 2092, 'email-510', 'ks.srinivas@gmail.com'),
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(13985, 29, 2092, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS, please provide me more details.'),
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(14001, 29, 2095, 'text-604', 'Utkarsh Agarwal'),
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(14004, 29, 2095, 'your-message', ''),
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(14008, 29, 2096, 'text-604', 'Rohit'),
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(14012, 29, 2096, 'submit_time', '2019-11-01 10:32:07'),
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(15272, 29, 2299, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI am interested in your PMS. Kindly contact me with necessary details to open an account.\r\n\r\nWith regards,\r\n\r\nRavindran M'),
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(15341, 29, 2310, 'your-message', 'Dear sir/ Madam,\r\n\r\nI am looking to invest with your asset management company. Please provide me details and let me know how to proceed.'),
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(15354, 29, 2312, 'your-message', 'Hi'),
(15355, 29, 2312, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 06:21:54'),
(15356, 29, 2312, 'submit_ip', '1.39.208.16'),
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(15379, 29, 2316, 'your-message', 'I am based in Gurgaon (Delhi NCR). \r\nDo you have any representative in this area? \r\nAUM ?\r\nNo . Of existing clients?\r\nDo promoters have also invested their personal funds in this PMS?\r\nTime taken to open a PMS account?'),
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(15386, 29, 2317, 'your-message', 'Whatsapp me if unavailable.'),
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(15405, 29, 2320, 'your-message', 'Can you please send the PMS details'),
(15406, 29, 2320, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 10:53:39'),
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(15412, 29, 2321, 'your-message', 'I want to invest through but as mentioned in website minimum investment should be 25 lakhs. but i have 5 lakhs can i invest.'),
(15413, 29, 2321, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 11:30:29'),
(15414, 29, 2321, 'submit_ip', '223.230.159.30'),
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(15427, 28, 2323, 'submit_ip', '157.46.34.173'),
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(15432, 29, 2324, 'your-message', 'Wish to invest.'),
(15433, 29, 2324, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 12:08:19'),
(15434, 29, 2324, 'submit_ip', '157.46.34.173'),
(15435, 28, 2325, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(15436, 28, 2325, 'text-996', 'Hemantkumar Agrawal'),
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(15439, 28, 2325, 'your-message', 'Sir,\r\nI am into market since 1985 as active Investor. Seen sensex 600.\r\nWish to have distributorship/Franchisee for PMS in and around BARODA region.\r\n'),
(15440, 28, 2325, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 14:06:37'),
(15441, 28, 2325, 'submit_ip', '157.32.24.185'),
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(15445, 28, 2326, 'tel-182', '9331267901'),
(15446, 28, 2326, 'your-message', 'Want to know how to invest in your PMS'),
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(15448, 28, 2326, 'submit_ip', '150.129.67.85'),
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(15450, 28, 2327, 'text-996', 'Bishnu Modi'),
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(15453, 28, 2327, 'your-message', 'want advise for investment of a portfolio.'),
(15454, 28, 2327, 'submit_time', '2019-11-06 14:38:28'),
(15455, 28, 2327, 'submit_ip', '47.9.252.71'),
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(15457, 28, 2328, 'text-996', 'U Nagaraju'),
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(15460, 28, 2328, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/ Madam,\r\nPlease let me know the process as a distributor for your PMS Products. i am a MFD( Mutual fund distributor).\r\n\r\nWaiting for your reply.\r\n\r\nWarm Regards\r\nU Nagaraju\r\n9848120012.\r\nVijayawada\r\nAndhra Pradesh'),
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(16685, 29, 2524, 'your-message', 'Will be Happy to Enhance my knowledge and opportunities.'),
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(17152, 29, 2597, 'your-message', 'Product or Services Details'),
(17153, 29, 2597, 'submit_time', '2019-11-08 15:50:06'),
(17154, 29, 2597, 'submit_ip', '49.36.10.84'),
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(17165, 29, 2599, 'your-message', 'I am looking for PMS investment '),
(17166, 29, 2599, 'submit_time', '2019-11-08 16:16:22'),
(17167, 29, 2599, 'submit_ip', '91.73.104.59'),
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(17172, 29, 2600, 'your-message', 'Please let me know more details'),
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(17186, 29, 2602, 'submit_time', '2019-11-08 16:57:04'),
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\r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russian Federation are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases for sending newsletters: \r\nWHOIS databases of sites for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site http://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 15 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $200 \r\n \r\n35439 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\nAmiro 2294 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 175513 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 49721 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 7769 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1562 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 29220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 70252 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(17798, 29, 2698, 'text-604', 'RAJUL  DOCTOR'),
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(18749, 28, 2842, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am quite interested as a distributor as well as an investor.\r\n\r\nI have presence in Thailand, UK, Europe &amp; Canada &amp; have a good network of NRI\'s who would like to invest.\r\n\r\nPlease contact on what\'s app on above number.\r\n\r\nThanks'),
(18750, 28, 2842, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 11:53:44'),
(18751, 28, 2842, 'submit_ip', '1.47.3.185'),
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(18753, 28, 2843, 'text-996', 'VIGA VENTURES '),
(18754, 28, 2843, 'email-563', 'vgkdev@gmail.com'),
(18755, 28, 2843, 'tel-182', '9884565069'),
(18756, 28, 2843, 'your-message', 'Interested '),
(18757, 28, 2843, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 12:14:35'),
(18758, 28, 2843, 'submit_ip', '182.70.43.242'),
(18759, 29, 2844, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18760, 29, 2844, 'text-604', 'Jacob Varughese'),
(18761, 29, 2844, 'email-510', 'zdjacob@gmail.com'),
(18762, 29, 2844, 'tel-299', '8547568249'),
(18763, 29, 2844, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am an NRI working in New Jersey. Back in India for a week. Interested in making an investment. Please contact me on email. Would like to schedule some time to talk. Preferable mode of comm-email. Thanks.\r\n\r\nJacob'),
(18764, 29, 2844, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 12:21:44'),
(18765, 29, 2844, 'submit_ip', '116.68.104.95'),
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(18767, 29, 2845, 'text-604', 'Rachin Gupta'),
(18768, 29, 2845, 'email-510', 'raching@gmail.com'),
(18769, 29, 2845, 'tel-299', '9818278029'),
(18770, 29, 2845, 'your-message', 'I am looking to make investment with help from your PMS.'),
(18771, 29, 2845, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 12:26:15'),
(18772, 29, 2845, 'submit_ip', '103.43.112.97'),
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(18774, 1662, 2846, 'your-name', 'vijay bhatia'),
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(18780, 1662, 2847, 'your-name', 'Gurdeep'),
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(18782, 1662, 2847, 'tel-309', '9000000000'),
(18783, 1662, 2847, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 12:51:38'),
(18784, 1662, 2847, 'submit_ip', '171.79.48.200'),
(18785, 28, 2848, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18786, 28, 2848, 'text-996', 'Manoj kumar sharma '),
(18787, 28, 2848, 'email-563', 'adiyashmanoj@gmail.com'),
(18788, 28, 2848, 'tel-182', '8318762824'),
(18789, 28, 2848, 'your-message', 'I am interested  in your philosophy of investment and want to join with you i will be comfortable in hindi '),
(18790, 28, 2848, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 12:55:11'),
(18791, 28, 2848, 'submit_ip', '157.43.123.86'),
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(18793, 29, 2849, 'text-604', 'TANMOY SABUD'),
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(18795, 29, 2849, 'tel-299', '9818737989'),
(18796, 29, 2849, 'your-message', 'PLEASE CONTACT ME.'),
(18797, 29, 2849, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 16:16:37'),
(18798, 29, 2849, 'submit_ip', '49.37.14.235'),
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(18806, 28, 2851, 'text-996', 'Siddhartha Jajoo'),
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(18809, 28, 2851, 'your-message', ''),
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(18811, 28, 2851, 'submit_ip', '49.36.130.108'),
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(18813, 29, 2852, 'text-604', 'Abhijit G .Jadhav'),
(18814, 29, 2852, 'email-510', 'abhi.jadhav0812@gmail.com'),
(18815, 29, 2852, 'tel-299', '9819872171'),
(18816, 29, 2852, 'your-message', 'Sir wanted to inquiry about pms services.\r\nThanks &amp; regards'),
(18817, 29, 2852, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 17:14:54'),
(18818, 29, 2852, 'submit_ip', '115.96.4.240'),
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(18820, 1662, 2853, 'your-name', 'Puneet Arora'),
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(18842, 1662, 2856, 'submit_ip', '122.176.235.98'),
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(18844, 29, 2857, 'text-604', 'Aman'),
(18845, 29, 2857, 'email-510', 'postforaman@gmail.com'),
(18846, 29, 2857, 'tel-299', '9910060416'),
(18847, 29, 2857, 'your-message', 'I am a small time investor wish to know about your company '),
(18848, 29, 2857, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 18:54:52'),
(18849, 29, 2857, 'submit_ip', '110.225.86.241'),
(18850, 29, 2858, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18851, 29, 2858, 'text-604', 'Sandeep Sekharamantri'),
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(18853, 29, 2858, 'tel-299', '0097466241986'),
(18854, 29, 2858, 'your-message', 'I want to understand more about the PMS offering and details on fees/charges.'),
(18855, 29, 2858, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 19:21:31'),
(18856, 29, 2858, 'submit_ip', '78.101.180.144'),
(18857, 1662, 2859, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18858, 1662, 2859, 'your-name', 'Saurabh Maheshwari'),
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(18860, 1662, 2859, 'tel-309', '983568963'),
(18861, 1662, 2859, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 19:30:15'),
(18862, 1662, 2859, 'submit_ip', '47.15.238.119'),
(18863, 29, 2860, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18864, 29, 2860, 'text-604', 'Kaushal shah'),
(18865, 29, 2860, 'email-510', 'jbcomtrade@gmail.com'),
(18866, 29, 2860, 'tel-299', '9722144739'),
(18867, 29, 2860, 'your-message', 'Hie. I am investor who wants to invest for 7-9 years and expect a CAGR of 15-18%'),
(18868, 29, 2860, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 21:16:47'),
(18869, 29, 2860, 'submit_ip', '49.34.44.134'),
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(18871, 28, 2861, 'text-996', 'nruasligqp'),
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(18873, 28, 2861, 'tel-182', '3358358382'),
(18874, 28, 2861, 'your-message', 'rnkdrfttzlhcgsxbfhwsshrgofafkz'),
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(18876, 28, 2861, 'submit_ip', '188.191.21.225'),
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(18878, 29, 2862, 'text-604', 'ssgicrblsb'),
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(18881, 29, 2862, 'your-message', 'mfmqdrrydsbslhbjceupmxccusysfi'),
(18882, 29, 2862, 'submit_time', '2019-11-11 22:30:04'),
(18883, 29, 2862, 'submit_ip', '188.191.21.225'),
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(18885, 1662, 2863, 'your-name', 'P Vinayakam'),
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(18889, 1662, 2863, 'submit_ip', '157.46.36.179'),
(18890, 1662, 2864, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18891, 1662, 2864, 'your-name', 'Shaily Bhansali'),
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(18895, 1662, 2864, 'submit_ip', '49.33.206.65'),
(18896, 29, 2865, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18897, 29, 2865, 'text-604', 'Sunil Roy'),
(18898, 29, 2865, 'email-510', 'sunilroy.sc@gmail.com'),
(18899, 29, 2865, 'tel-299', '9810246244'),
(18900, 29, 2865, 'your-message', 'Pl tell the details about the product.its performance till date and the various charges.\r\n'),
(18901, 29, 2865, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 02:45:24'),
(18902, 29, 2865, 'submit_ip', '124.123.255.48'),
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(18904, 28, 2866, 'text-996', 'Sunil Roy'),
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(18907, 28, 2866, 'your-message', 'Pl explain the product'),
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(18914, 28, 2867, 'your-message', 'Pl explain the product'),
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(18934, 1662, 2870, 'tel-309', '83332177795'),
(18935, 1662, 2870, 'submit', 'Send'),
(18936, 1662, 2870, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 03:42:07'),
(18937, 1662, 2870, 'submit_ip', '37.115.197.74'),
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(18939, 1662, 2871, 'your-name', 'aquloybih'),
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(18942, 1662, 2871, 'submit', 'Send'),
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(18944, 1662, 2871, 'submit_ip', '37.115.197.74'),
(18945, 1662, 2872, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18946, 1662, 2872, 'your-name', 'HT Magarh'),
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(18948, 1662, 2872, 'tel-309', '9718218155'),
(18949, 1662, 2872, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 06:10:35'),
(18950, 1662, 2872, 'submit_ip', '148.64.6.122'),
(18951, 1662, 2873, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18952, 1662, 2873, 'your-name', 'Deval Shah'),
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(18954, 1662, 2873, 'tel-309', '9898062734'),
(18955, 1662, 2873, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 06:41:45'),
(18956, 1662, 2873, 'submit_ip', '120.72.93.26'),
(18957, 28, 2874, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18958, 28, 2874, 'text-996', 'C Madhwal'),
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(18960, 28, 2874, 'tel-182', '9971315718'),
(18961, 28, 2874, 'your-message', 'Intrested in PMS service'),
(18962, 28, 2874, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 06:41:48'),
(18963, 28, 2874, 'submit_ip', '103.213.18.59'),
(18964, 29, 2875, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18965, 29, 2875, 'text-604', 'TANMOY SABUD'),
(18966, 29, 2875, 'email-510', 'TSABUD@YAHOO.COM'),
(18967, 29, 2875, 'tel-299', '9818737989'),
(18968, 29, 2875, 'your-message', 'I want to invest with Mercellus, Please contact me urgently.'),
(18969, 29, 2875, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 06:57:08'),
(18970, 29, 2875, 'submit_ip', '49.37.14.235'),
(18971, 1662, 2876, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18972, 1662, 2876, 'your-name', 'Saurabh'),
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(18975, 1662, 2876, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 07:01:28'),
(18976, 1662, 2876, 'submit_ip', '49.37.13.45'),
(18977, 1662, 2877, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18978, 1662, 2877, 'your-name', 'Amardeep Singh'),
(18979, 1662, 2877, 'your-email', 'amardeep1981@gmail.com'),
(18980, 1662, 2877, 'tel-309', '9949218886'),
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(18982, 1662, 2877, 'submit_ip', '202.65.158.50'),
(18983, 29, 2878, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(18984, 29, 2878, 'text-604', 'Sunil Roy'),
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(18986, 29, 2878, 'tel-299', '9810246244'),
(18987, 29, 2878, 'your-message', ''),
(18988, 29, 2878, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 07:32:36'),
(18989, 29, 2878, 'submit_ip', '124.123.233.80'),
(18990, 1662, 2879, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(18993, 1662, 2879, 'tel-309', '9503312840'),
(18994, 1662, 2879, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 07:40:11'),
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(19007, 1662, 2881, 'submit_ip', '106.220.228.66'),
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(19012, 28, 2882, 'your-message', 'Hi, We are a WEALTH management based out of Noida.  Would like to explore working together. '),
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(19021, 29, 2884, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19022, 29, 2884, 'text-604', 'Devesh Singh'),
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(19024, 29, 2884, 'tel-299', ''),
(19025, 29, 2884, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nWould you be open for small ticket size investor ( 10 lac and Below) .\r\n\r\nBr//Devesh'),
(19026, 29, 2884, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 08:04:01'),
(19027, 29, 2884, 'submit_ip', '203.191.35.25'),
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(19041, 1662, 2887, 'your-name', 'Sunil'),
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(19046, 29, 2888, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(19050, 29, 2888, 'your-message', 'Hi, I had sent message to you last week as well but received no response. I would like to invest through Marcellus. Kindly let me know how can I proceed.\r\n\r\nbest regards\r\nAshish\r\n--- '),
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(19054, 29, 2889, 'text-604', 'V C Reddy'),
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(19056, 29, 2889, 'tel-299', '09323698743'),
(19057, 29, 2889, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS\r\nPlease Call Me'),
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(19070, 29, 2891, 'your-message', 'After retirement planning ,contact as soon as possible '),
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(19076, 28, 2892, 'tel-182', '86333196722'),
(19077, 28, 2892, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/mdm, \r\n \r\nTired \r\nof cameras that always broke down easily? \r\n \r\nDon\'t worry, we manufacture High-Definition Security Surveillance \r\nSystems for Residential &amp; Commercial uses. All our cameras are metal \r\nweatherproof and comes with sony sensor for maximum quality. \r\nIPcam video quality: https://youtu.be/VPG82dnXfWY \r\n \r\n+1 866-655-7056 \r\n+65 6678-6557 \r\nEmail: sales@revlightsecurity.com \r\nW: http://www.revlightsecurity.com/ \r\n \r\nHave a nice day! :) \r\n \r\nregards, \r\nJessie Chang \r\n7 Temasek Boulevard, Level 32, Suntec Tower One, Singapore \r\n038987'),
(19078, 28, 2892, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(19079, 28, 2892, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 10:08:49'),
(19080, 28, 2892, 'submit_ip', '87.101.94.123'),
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(19085, 28, 2893, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am a wealth manager based out of Delhi. A close friend suggested who is an investor with you suggested your PMS. I had a brief look at the portfolio and liked it.\r\n\r\nWould like to explore the possiblity of working together, my clients would be interested in exploring your PMS as an investment option. \r\n\r\nTo know more about my company, please visit www.skgah.com.\r\n\r\nKindly get in touch. \r\nThanks'),
(19086, 28, 2893, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 10:15:26'),
(19087, 28, 2893, 'submit_ip', '223.190.79.106'),
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(19092, 29, 2894, 'your-message', 'Can you guide me to setup a joint family corpus '),
(19093, 29, 2894, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 10:43:53'),
(19094, 29, 2894, 'submit_ip', '106.66.217.254'),
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(19098, 29, 2895, 'tel-299', '9886576615'),
(19099, 29, 2895, 'your-message', 'I am intested in PMS offerings. Can you please share the PMS schemes available with you.\r\nYou may reach me at my email address karthick.asdf@gmail.com or my mobile number 9886576615.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nKarthick.'),
(19100, 29, 2895, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 10:57:59'),
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(19138, 29, 2901, 'submit_ip', '47.11.139.99'),
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(19143, 29, 2902, 'your-message', 'I have no idea about investing in stock market. Recently I started investing through SBICL. I would like to follow your advice with regard to investing in future. '),
(19144, 29, 2902, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 13:25:48'),
(19145, 29, 2902, 'submit_ip', '115.98.163.25'),
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(19147, 29, 2903, 'text-604', 'S P Nicholas Vidyasagar '),
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(19150, 29, 2903, 'your-message', 'I have no idea about investing in stock market. Recently I started investing through SBICL. I would like to follow your advice with regard to investing in future. '),
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(19163, 28, 2905, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am based in USA and would like to invest with you. Would appreciate if to can send me you investment advisory for NRI\'s.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nSatya'),
(19164, 28, 2905, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 15:59:12'),
(19165, 28, 2905, 'submit_ip', '192.64.159.11'),
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(19183, 1662, 2908, 'submit_ip', '47.15.179.108'),
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(19185, 1662, 2909, 'your-name', 'Tushar'),
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(19187, 1662, 2909, 'tel-309', '09888222345'),
(19188, 1662, 2909, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 17:48:32'),
(19189, 1662, 2909, 'submit_ip', '49.33.222.248'),
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(19194, 1662, 2910, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 18:21:35'),
(19195, 1662, 2910, 'submit_ip', '103.51.234.38'),
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(19197, 29, 2911, 'text-604', 'Amitabha Pal'),
(19198, 29, 2911, 'email-510', 'amitabhapal4812@gmail.com'),
(19199, 29, 2911, 'tel-299', '9331212814'),
(19200, 29, 2911, 'your-message', 'Quite impressed with your thoughts. I am a salaried person. How much money do I need to have to avail your consultation services.'),
(19201, 29, 2911, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 20:18:38'),
(19202, 29, 2911, 'submit_ip', '47.29.1.159'),
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(19207, 1662, 2912, 'submit_time', '2019-11-12 20:57:33'),
(19208, 1662, 2912, 'submit_ip', '49.36.4.166'),
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(19210, 29, 2913, 'text-604', 'Abhilash P'),
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(19212, 29, 2913, 'tel-299', '9901860004'),
(19213, 29, 2913, 'your-message', 'Hi Team,\r\n\r\nWould like to know more about your services , and try to see if a min investment of 25 lakh is it stringent and look at my specific case wherein I have just relocated to a foregin country and as such my demat account is not converted to non-residential status.\r\nAlso would like to know in your zero fees model ,yearly the returns are calcuated based on a cut-off date or the highest return in that year was not clear for me.\r\nAnyways we can have a quick chat on this number (my India contact) as of today and later on I will be available on my othr number which I can share later as deicsussion progresses.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nAbhilash'),
(19214, 29, 2913, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 02:05:51'),
(19215, 29, 2913, 'submit_ip', '198.175.68.37'),
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(19217, 29, 2914, 'text-604', 'Falgun Chokshi'),
(19218, 29, 2914, 'email-510', 'fnchokshi@me.com'),
(19219, 29, 2914, 'tel-299', '09879200022'),
(19220, 29, 2914, 'your-message', 'I am interested in having a PMS account with your firm. Pls call me back.'),
(19221, 29, 2914, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 03:24:31'),
(19222, 29, 2914, 'submit_ip', '202.71.20.60'),
(19223, 1662, 2915, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19224, 1662, 2915, 'your-name', 'AJIT DUBHASHI'),
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(19226, 1662, 2915, 'tel-309', '09822083100'),
(19227, 1662, 2915, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 04:35:45'),
(19228, 1662, 2915, 'submit_ip', '116.75.3.34'),
(19229, 29, 2916, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19230, 29, 2916, 'text-604', 'Sonam Jain'),
(19231, 29, 2916, 'email-510', 'sonamjain612@gmail.com'),
(19232, 29, 2916, 'tel-299', '9819468855'),
(19233, 29, 2916, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI am a young professional working in Mumbai. My husband and I would like to explore this option of PMS by your firm. Please let us know how can we know more.'),
(19234, 29, 2916, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 06:15:21'),
(19235, 29, 2916, 'submit_ip', '14.143.239.18'),
(19236, 29, 2917, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19237, 29, 2917, 'text-604', 'Pervar santhaji'),
(19238, 29, 2917, 'email-510', 'santhajipervar@gmail.com'),
(19239, 29, 2917, 'tel-299', '9490739434'),
(19240, 29, 2917, 'your-message', 'I would like to know more about yourself and how to start investing in Discretionary PMS.'),
(19241, 29, 2917, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 06:19:23'),
(19242, 29, 2917, 'submit_ip', '122.175.91.119'),
(19243, 1662, 2918, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19244, 1662, 2918, 'your-name', 'Saurabh'),
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(19247, 1662, 2918, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 06:34:13'),
(19248, 1662, 2918, 'submit_ip', '49.37.13.45'),
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(19250, 1662, 2919, 'your-name', 'MATHEW VARGHESE'),
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(19254, 1662, 2919, 'submit_ip', '94.205.253.114'),
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(19260, 1662, 2920, 'submit_ip', '14.141.97.12'),
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(19265, 28, 2921, 'your-message', 'Please call me ... for i want to be your distributor to sell your PMS'),
(19266, 28, 2921, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 08:02:56'),
(19267, 28, 2921, 'submit_ip', '122.173.106.180'),
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(19285, 1662, 2924, 'submit_ip', '122.171.221.62'),
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(19290, 29, 2925, 'your-message', 'inquiry regarding your pms'),
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(19292, 29, 2925, 'submit_ip', '1.22.44.50'),
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(19322, 1662, 2930, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 10:07:41'),
(19323, 1662, 2930, 'submit_ip', '66.96.194.164'),
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(19325, 29, 2931, 'text-604', 'Ashwin Rajeeva'),
(19326, 29, 2931, 'email-510', 'winash@outlook.com'),
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(19328, 29, 2931, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS '),
(19329, 29, 2931, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 10:37:04'),
(19330, 29, 2931, 'submit_ip', '106.51.78.182'),
(19331, 29, 2932, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19332, 29, 2932, 'text-604', 'Harshal Shelat'),
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(19334, 29, 2932, 'tel-299', '9998244926'),
(19335, 29, 2932, 'your-message', 'Request you to kindly send me the Private Placement Memorandum to understand your fees structure before i commit Investment in it.'),
(19336, 29, 2932, 'submit_time', '2019-11-13 11:31:46'),
(19337, 29, 2932, 'submit_ip', '106.201.235.78'),
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(19342, 28, 2933, 'your-message', 'We want to serve excellency in our region gandhidham -gujrat  through marcellus .'),
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(19469, 29, 2953, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nMy name is Eric and I was looking at a few different sites online and came across your site marcellus.in.  I must say - your website is very impressive.  I am seeing your website on the first page of the Search Engine. \r\n\r\nHave you noticed that 70 percent of visitors who leave your website will never return?  In most cases, this means that 95 percent to 98 percent of your marketing efforts are going to waste, not to mention that you are losing more money in customer acquisition costs than you need to.\r\n \r\nAs a business person, the time and money you put into your marketing efforts is extremely valuable.  So why let it go to waste?  Our users have seen staggering improvements in conversions with insane growths of 150 percent going upwards of 785 percent. Are you ready to unlock the highest conversion revenue from each of your website visitors?  \r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer is a widget which captures a website visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number and then calls you immediately, so that you can talk to the Lead exactly when they are live on your website — while they\'re hot! Best feature of all, International Long Distance Calling is included!\r\n  \r\nTry TalkWithCustomer Live Demo now to see exactly how it works.  Visit http://www.talkwithcustomer.com\r\n\r\nWhen targeting leads, speed is essential - there is a 100x decrease in Leads when a Lead is contacted within 30 minutes vs being contacted within 5 minutes.\r\n\r\nIf you would like to talk to me about this service, please give me a call.  We have a 14 days trial.  Visit http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nThanks and Best Regards,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe go to http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(19560, 29, 2966, 'your-message', 'Do you guys take on small retail investors with long term investing horizon? What are your charges. Thanks'),
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(19574, 29, 2968, 'your-message', 'Interested in your investment advisory and pms. Please send across the details.. '),
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(19576, 29, 2968, 'submit_ip', '49.207.53.204'),
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(19587, 28, 2970, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nWant to get empanelled as distributor for your fund. We are already into the business with sizable amount. \r\nRegards\r\n'),
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(19618, 29, 2975, 'your-message', 'Kindly request you to share Product Presentation. What are similarities and differences between Coffee Can Portfolio and Consistent Compounder .\r\n\r\nWarm Regards,\r\nMihir K.'),
(19619, 29, 2975, 'submit_time', '2019-11-14 04:20:56'),
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(19631, 29, 2977, 'your-message', 'Can you give some details on your product? What is the typical portfolio churn, will you manage it at your end? How does the performance fee model work? Is it based on incremental hurdle each year based on last year\'s AUM? Or is it a fixed hurdle of 8% based on original investment?'),
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(19697, 29, 2987, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS service. Can I get more details and maybe talk to someone to understand plans.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nKalpesh\r\n99720-66466'),
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(19699, 29, 2987, 'submit_ip', '165.204.157.251'),
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(19701, 28, 2988, 'text-996', 'Ваш email победил в нашем конкурсе. Скорее заберите свой приз тут: message https://google.com/'),
(19702, 28, 2988, 'email-563', 'lidiya.volkomirskaya@mail.ru'),
(19703, 28, 2988, 'tel-182', '89113556153'),
(19704, 28, 2988, 'your-message', 'Ваш email выбран случайно и получаете от нас супер бонус! Подробнее тут: message https://google.com/'),
(19705, 28, 2988, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(19706, 28, 2988, 'submit_time', '2019-11-14 09:39:20'),
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(19719, 29, 2990, 'your-message', 'Do you have direct and indirect plans in the PMS like mutual funds? Does an investor get less return in comparision to the direct plan return if one routes her investment through PMS Bazaar?'),
(19720, 29, 2990, 'submit_time', '2019-11-14 10:16:04'),
(19721, 29, 2990, 'submit_ip', '157.41.102.215'),
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(19729, 28, 2992, 'text-996', 'Ваш адрес email победил и вы получаете шанс забрать денежный бонус! Переходите и заберите: message https://google.com/'),
(19730, 28, 2992, 'email-563', 'lidiya.volkomirskaya@mail.ru'),
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(19732, 28, 2992, 'your-message', 'Поздравляем! Вы получаете супер бонус! Переходите и проверьте: message https://google.com/'),
(19733, 28, 2992, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(19740, 28, 2993, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/Madam.\r\nAs want to meet to your product head for distribution of PMS,SLB,&amp; PHILLIP CAPITAL EQUITY ADVISORY.\r\nThanking You,\r\nHardik Mehta.'),
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(19770, 28, 2998, 'text-996', 'JeromeThoum'),
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(19773, 28, 2998, 'your-message', 'We Agrolance Oil Plant can offer the following edible/cooking oil; Soybean Oil, Refined Sunflower Oil, Corn Oil, Peanut Oil, RBD Palm Olein Oil CP 10,8, Rapeseed/Canola Oil, Sesame Oil, Refined Coconut Oil, Extensive range of bakery fats, \r\nPAYMENT TERMS: \r\nVery Flexible with payment, but basically we accept 100% at sight LC after initial Pre-production \r\ncommand. \r\n \r\nPACKING CONDITIONS: \r\n20ft Container, Bulk/Flexi tanks, In Bottles 1L, 3L,5L, Jerry Cans, 18L, 25L, 18L Gorse Weight Tin Square Pack. | Packing can be adapted based on customer’s choice. \r\n \r\nCONTACT: \r\nMRS. ANYA KABLOV \r\nCommercial Dept. \r\nEmail: agrolance@ukr.net \r\nTel: +380-6322-75024 \r\nhttp://www.agrolance.com'),
(19774, 28, 2998, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(19776, 28, 2998, 'submit_ip', '185.216.35.231'),
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(19782, 1662, 2999, 'submit_ip', '123.201.54.142'),
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(19784, 29, 3000, 'text-604', 'Parimal patel'),
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(19787, 29, 3000, 'your-message', 'Can you please call me , I am interested in learning more about the PMS.'),
(19788, 29, 3000, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 03:34:18'),
(19789, 29, 3000, 'submit_ip', '108.6.220.95'),
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(19797, 1662, 3002, 'your-name', 'Ravi Shanker Bommakanti'),
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(19807, 1662, 3003, 'submit_ip', '47.247.72.58'),
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(19809, 29, 3004, 'text-604', 'SHISHIRANSHU KUMAR'),
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(19811, 29, 3004, 'tel-299', '8447182451'),
(19812, 29, 3004, 'your-message', 'I would like to know that how your PMS system works ? You will suggest which stock to buy or sell in my own account or you will do yourself.  \r\n'),
(19813, 29, 3004, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 06:20:05'),
(19814, 29, 3004, 'submit_ip', '122.177.162.62'),
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(19816, 28, 3005, 'text-996', 'Santhosh '),
(19817, 28, 3005, 'email-563', '2santhosh@gmail.com'),
(19818, 28, 3005, 'tel-182', '+966507560640'),
(19819, 28, 3005, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am santhosh and I am interested in this PMS. Kindly call me. '),
(19820, 28, 3005, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 06:31:47'),
(19821, 28, 3005, 'submit_ip', '51.39.128.188'),
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(19827, 1662, 3006, 'submit_ip', '42.106.213.111'),
(19828, 29, 3007, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19829, 29, 3007, 'text-604', 'Samanth Jain '),
(19830, 29, 3007, 'email-510', 'samanth.jain@gmail.com'),
(19831, 29, 3007, 'tel-299', '9945544022'),
(19832, 29, 3007, 'your-message', 'One of my colleagues referred me to Marcellus consistent compounders PMS. I am willing to understand more and invest. '),
(19833, 29, 3007, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 08:19:54'),
(19834, 29, 3007, 'submit_ip', '15.89.170.12'),
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(19839, 1662, 3008, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 08:29:28'),
(19840, 1662, 3008, 'submit_ip', '123.242.248.130'),
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(19842, 29, 3009, 'text-604', 'Amol A. Sale'),
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(19844, 29, 3009, 'tel-299', '9762646588'),
(19845, 29, 3009, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/Madam,\r\nI\'m a follower of Saurabh Sir\'s writing for long. I have read both the books by him, Unusual Billionaires and Coffee Can Investing.\r\nI am 34 years old DIY investor till date and have grown my stocks + MF investments to ~35 Lakhs as of today.\r\nI am thinking of investing through Marcellus PMS to safeguard my capital and to avoid any accidents with my life savings. However, I\'m not able to understand the fee structure of Marcellus. I have the following queries:\r\n1. Can you explain the fees structure with some illustration or example?\r\n2. Can I transfer my existing stock/MF holdings to Marcellus or I need to liquidate them and invest afresh into Marcellus PMS?\r\n3. In the future, if I need to make any withdrawals, how can I make them?'),
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(19848, 29, 3010, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(19849, 29, 3010, 'text-604', 'ACHUT HEGDE'),
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(19854, 29, 3010, 'submit_ip', '122.172.126.172'),
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(19856, 29, 3011, 'text-604', 'SOURAV MAZUMDER'),
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(19858, 29, 3011, 'tel-299', '8805703787'),
(19859, 29, 3011, 'your-message', 'I\'m working as an investment manager, managing 700crs of portfolio of a family business in Mumbai. I want to have a meeting with you.'),
(19860, 29, 3011, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 11:05:33'),
(19861, 29, 3011, 'submit_ip', '203.115.121.216'),
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(19863, 29, 3012, 'text-604', 'Jenil Shah'),
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(19870, 28, 3013, 'text-996', 'S'),
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(19873, 28, 3013, 'your-message', 'Kindly  send  news  letters '),
(19874, 28, 3013, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 11:29:06'),
(19875, 28, 3013, 'submit_ip', '117.230.174.51'),
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(19911, 28, 3019, 'submit_time', '2019-11-15 12:44:03'),
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(20080, 29, 3046, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir,\r\nKindly elaborate the ‘term fixed fee’ on which figure?\r\nThanks &amp; regards '),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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(20214, 29, 3067, 'your-message', 'Interested in pms service with Marcellus for long period of time.... '),
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(20218, 2456, 3068, 'your-name', 'Aayush Agrawal'),
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(20224, 29, 3069, 'text-604', 'Samanth Jain '),
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(20271, 29, 3076, 'your-message', 'I want to invest in Products like PMS and related once.\r\n\r\nPlease send me the documents and procedures.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nSubir'),
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(20308, 29, 3082, 'your-message', 'Would  like  to invest in PMS'),
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(20315, 28, 3083, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nDo you have office in Pune? \r\n\r\nRegards \r\nRamdas '),
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(20317, 28, 3083, 'submit_ip', '89.211.248.15'),
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(20319, 29, 3084, 'text-604', 'K L Sabharwal'),
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(20322, 29, 3084, 'your-message', 'I want to open an a/c for PMS,I AM RESIDING IN DELHI AND Sr.CITIZEN..I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW THE FORMALITIESTO BE COMPLETED FOR IT.YOU HAVE ANY REPRESENTATIVE IN THIS AREA,OR EVERY THING WILL BE ON LINE..  ALT.  L.L. No. 01145797001'),
(20323, 29, 3084, 'submit_time', '2019-11-17 17:53:52'),
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(20360, 1662, 3090, 'submit_ip', '182.70.108.92'),
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(20365, 29, 3091, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS'),
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(20367, 29, 3091, 'submit_ip', '121.242.79.210'),
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(20369, 29, 3092, 'text-604', 'priyal chaubey'),
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(20372, 29, 3092, 'your-message', 'hello sir, \r\n in the fixed fee structure ,2% p.a fee is the percentage of the initial amount invested with you ? just for clarification. '),
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(20374, 29, 3092, 'submit_ip', '49.36.6.109'),
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(20410, 1662, 3098, 'submit_ip', '59.163.11.66'),
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(20412, 29, 3099, 'text-604', 'Sayak Rana'),
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(20417, 29, 3099, 'submit_ip', '106.51.104.123'),
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(20422, 1662, 3100, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 07:28:28'),
(20423, 1662, 3100, 'submit_ip', '106.51.80.192'),
(20424, 1662, 3101, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(20425, 1662, 3101, 'your-name', 'Ilango S'),
(20426, 1662, 3101, 'your-email', 'silango82@gmail.com'),
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(20428, 1662, 3101, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 07:29:33'),
(20429, 1662, 3101, 'submit_ip', '27.5.215.128'),
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(20431, 29, 3102, 'text-604', 'Sanjay Tanna'),
(20432, 29, 3102, 'email-510', 'sanjaytanna17@gmail.com'),
(20433, 29, 3102, 'tel-299', '9825400482'),
(20434, 29, 3102, 'your-message', 'Am interested in PMS CCP or other PMS products , request you to please call'),
(20435, 29, 3102, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 07:56:15'),
(20436, 29, 3102, 'submit_ip', '203.27.235.106'),
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(20438, 29, 3103, 'text-604', 'Vivek Bansal'),
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(20441, 29, 3103, 'your-message', 'Hello, i want to know more about marcellus pms &amp; interested to invest\r\n'),
(20442, 29, 3103, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 08:02:31'),
(20443, 29, 3103, 'submit_ip', '182.68.247.152'),
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(20450, 29, 3104, 'submit_ip', '182.68.247.152'),
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(20455, 2456, 3105, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 09:36:15'),
(20456, 2456, 3105, 'submit_ip', '219.65.109.4'),
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(20462, 2456, 3106, 'submit_ip', '175.100.149.10'),
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(20467, 29, 3107, 'your-message', 'Tell me about your pms , ticket size n working method '),
(20468, 29, 3107, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 09:53:44'),
(20469, 29, 3107, 'submit_ip', '1.38.83.114'),
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(20471, 28, 3108, 'text-996', 'Dr. Chetan Khadke'),
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(20474, 28, 3108, 'your-message', 'I\'m a young Radiologist by profession and I\'m looking for a compony for long term investment with similar philosophy as yours.'),
(20475, 28, 3108, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 10:02:02'),
(20476, 28, 3108, 'submit_ip', '106.51.234.131'),
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(20482, 1662, 3109, 'submit_ip', '122.170.14.75'),
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(20484, 29, 3110, 'text-604', 'Sreekumar '),
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(20487, 29, 3110, 'your-message', 'Please let me know how do I start the PMS with your company '),
(20488, 29, 3110, 'submit_time', '2019-11-18 12:39:28'),
(20489, 29, 3110, 'submit_ip', '5.37.179.197'),
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(20807, 29, 3161, 'your-message', 'I wanted to speak to Marcellus regarding PMS and the details around it.'),
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(21142, 29, 3215, 'text-604', 'MEET'),
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(21147, 29, 3215, 'submit_ip', '123.201.225.46'),
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(21149, 29, 3216, 'text-604', 'Vivek Karol'),
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(21152, 29, 3216, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\n\r\nI have been contemplating to sign up for your PMS and since the past couple of weeks have been watching/reading all the interviews/presentations/content put out by Saurabh and the other folks at Marcellus.\r\n\r\nI just read the news that SEBI has made some changes today evening - are these changes effective immediately? Or if I were to sign up with you folks can it be done at the old level of 2.5 mil?\r\n\r\nI will appreciate if you can please appraise me at your earliest convenience.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\n-Vivek\r\n'),
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(21184, 28, 3221, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(21191, 29, 3222, 'your-message', 'I am looking to invest in your PMS. Can you share details of your plan via email.'),
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(21204, 29, 3224, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest about Rs. 2.5m to start with. Will you be interested to provide PMS services and what are the terms n conditions.'),
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(21347, 29, 3247, 'text-604', 'TAPASH BHATTACHARJEE'),
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(21350, 29, 3247, 'your-message', 'I am investing of my own and my broker is HDFC Securities. The present asset of my investment is about 53lakhs and I can invest further 20 L. I would like to join your PMS Program. Kindly advise with your T &amp; C.'),
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(21363, 28, 3249, 'your-message', 'Need to empanel'),
(21364, 28, 3249, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 15:23:54'),
(21365, 28, 3249, 'submit_ip', '106.198.88.209'),
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(21383, 1662, 3252, 'submit_ip', '49.37.204.202'),
(21384, 29, 3253, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(21385, 29, 3253, 'text-604', 'Aayush Agrawal'),
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(21387, 29, 3253, 'tel-299', '8826689466'),
(21388, 29, 3253, 'your-message', 'Hello.\r\nI tried to subscribe for newsletters, but I didn\'t get any confirmation email, please kindly let me know if I\'ve been added to the list.\r\nThank you'),
(21389, 29, 3253, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 15:38:50'),
(21390, 29, 3253, 'submit_ip', '150.107.232.162'),
(21391, 2456, 3254, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(21397, 29, 3255, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(21398, 29, 3255, 'text-604', 'Madhubabu Rao'),
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(21400, 29, 3255, 'tel-299', '8889561212'),
(21401, 29, 3255, 'your-message', 'Is this investing option available at Hyderabad ? '),
(21402, 29, 3255, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 16:14:56'),
(21403, 29, 3255, 'submit_ip', '157.48.107.144'),
(21404, 28, 3256, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(21405, 28, 3256, 'text-996', 'Doug Drake'),
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(21407, 28, 3256, 'tel-182', '07375643130'),
(21408, 28, 3256, 'your-message', 'To whom it may concern,\r\n\r\nMy name is Doug Drake and I work for Phoenix Asset Management Partners in London, UK. \r\n\r\nThis is our website - https://www.phoenixassetmanagement.com/ - we are traditional long only value investors and love continuous compounders just like you !!! \r\n\r\nI really like you style and am very interested in learning more about how you invest in India. We primarily invest in the UK but have a small global fund. We also have a stake in a business with their major business in India. I am visiting Delhi on December 7th – 11th. I see you are based in Mumbai but do you have a presence in Delhi?\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nDoug  \r\n'),
(21409, 28, 3256, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 16:31:41'),
(21410, 28, 3256, 'submit_ip', '86.12.148.222'),
(21411, 29, 3257, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(21412, 29, 3257, 'text-604', 'Manthan Shah'),
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(21414, 29, 3257, 'tel-299', '9687681757'),
(21415, 29, 3257, 'your-message', 'Looking for a PMS investment before the cap increases.\r\nThank you!'),
(21416, 29, 3257, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 18:48:02'),
(21417, 29, 3257, 'submit_ip', '49.34.60.113'),
(21418, 1662, 3258, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(21422, 1662, 3258, 'submit_time', '2019-11-21 20:27:46'),
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(21425, 29, 3259, 'text-604', 'Hannelore Nyholm'),
(21426, 29, 3259, 'email-510', 'contact@marcellus.in'),
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(21444, 2456, 3262, 'your-name', 'krishnan iyer'),
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(21466, 29, 3265, 'your-message', 'I want to investing in pms.please advise me.'),
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(21473, 29, 3266, 'your-message', 'How can I join your PMS? Can I contact any one on phone? I am from Mumbai.'),
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(21526, 2456, 3275, 'your-name', 'Ayushi Garodia'),
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(21529, 2456, 3275, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 09:22:35'),
(21530, 2456, 3275, 'submit_ip', '202.134.179.41'),
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(21532, 1662, 3276, 'your-name', 'Narasimha Shenoy'),
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(21535, 1662, 3276, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 10:16:29'),
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(21541, 29, 3277, 'your-message', 'Dear Saurabh,\r\nI note you were part of the working group on PMS, you have suggested NSIM certification for specified employees, can I know which NSIM certification is the working group referring to?\r\n'),
(21542, 29, 3277, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 10:22:19'),
(21543, 29, 3277, 'submit_ip', '27.7.5.230'),
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(21545, 29, 3278, 'text-604', 'Varun Mehta'),
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(21548, 29, 3278, 'your-message', 'I am exploring PMS options to join in. Could you please call to discuss around the same.'),
(21549, 29, 3278, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 10:35:28'),
(21550, 29, 3278, 'submit_ip', '148.64.6.105'),
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(21552, 29, 3279, 'text-604', 'Darrell Lacroix'),
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(21554, 29, 3279, 'tel-299', '055 315 76 98'),
(21555, 29, 3279, 'your-message', 'Sick of wasting money on PPC advertising that just doesn\'t deliver? Now you can post your ad on 10,000 ad sites and it\'ll only cost you one flat fee per month. Get unlimited traffic forever! To find out more check out our site here: http://www.submitmyadnow.tech'),
(21556, 29, 3279, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:10:37'),
(21557, 29, 3279, 'submit_ip', '184.75.211.132'),
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(21563, 2456, 3280, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21565, 29, 3281, 'text-604', 'Suseela Devi '),
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(21568, 29, 3281, 'your-message', 'Kindly  send  news letters '),
(21569, 29, 3281, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:30:32'),
(21570, 29, 3281, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21575, 29, 3282, 'your-message', 'Kindly  send  news letters '),
(21576, 29, 3282, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:30:33'),
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(21583, 2456, 3283, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21585, 2456, 3284, 'your-name', 'Suseela Devi '),
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(21589, 2456, 3284, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21597, 29, 3286, 'text-604', 'arun ramalingam'),
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(21600, 29, 3286, 'your-message', 'interested to invest in your PMS. please call '),
(21601, 29, 3286, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:32:41'),
(21602, 29, 3286, 'submit_ip', '157.51.116.108'),
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(21604, 28, 3287, 'text-996', 'Suseela  Devi  k'),
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(21606, 28, 3287, 'tel-182', '9497000103'),
(21607, 28, 3287, 'your-message', 'Kindly  send  news letters \r\n\r\n'),
(21608, 28, 3287, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:33:49'),
(21609, 28, 3287, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21611, 28, 3288, 'text-996', 'Suseela  Devi  k'),
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(21614, 28, 3288, 'your-message', 'Kindly  send  news letters \r\n\r\n'),
(21615, 28, 3288, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 11:33:51'),
(21616, 28, 3288, 'submit_ip', '117.230.19.237'),
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(21618, 29, 3289, 'text-604', 'Sajeeth Shetty'),
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(21621, 29, 3289, 'your-message', 'Please share the details of the PMS.'),
(21622, 29, 3289, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 12:03:47'),
(21623, 29, 3289, 'submit_ip', '2.51.72.199'),
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(21631, 28, 3291, 'text-996', 'tony fernandes'),
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(21634, 28, 3291, 'your-message', 'As an ardent follower of Saurabh, am keen on lowest base-service on offer\r\n\r\nAlso if you know of a site that offers collated data on Analysts Calls on investment\r\nKindly revert asap, thanks'),
(21635, 28, 3291, 'submit_time', '2019-11-22 12:41:51'),
(21636, 28, 3291, 'submit_ip', '182.57.116.17'),
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(21647, 1662, 3293, 'submit', 'Send'),
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(21649, 1662, 3293, 'submit_ip', '92.244.96.108'),
(21650, 29, 3294, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(21651, 29, 3294, 'text-604', 'Rakesh Vadhyar'),
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(21654, 29, 3294, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more about the PMS Strategy - Consistent\r\nCompounders'),
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(21685, 29, 3299, 'your-message', 'I want to invest around 2 lack per year..  Wanted to seek your help for the same. I would prefer mail rather than phone call'),
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(21687, 29, 3299, 'submit_ip', '1.39.173.73'),
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(22273, 29, 3391, 'your-message', 'Increase ranks and visibility for marcellus.in with a monthly SEO plan that is built uniquely for your website\r\n\r\nIncrease SEO metrics and ranks while receiving complete reports on monthly basis\r\n\r\nCheck out our plans\r\nhttps://googlealexarank.com/index.php/seo-packages/\r\n\r\nthanks and regards\r\nTop SEO Experts'),
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(22280, 29, 3392, 'your-message', 'I am interested in Marcellus Consistent Compounders Portfolio Management Services and would like to know more about it. Could you please send me latest information? Thanks'),
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(25777, 28, 3956, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nRequest if someone can speak with us about your products on offer and empanelment process for us as well as our clients. Thanks Minoo Engineer'),
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(25834, 28, 3965, 'your-message', 'Hi. I am Meet Makadia, based in Mumbai. By end of current financial year, there is a good chance of me being in the market to look for a PMS service provider as I am in process of liquidating stake in a pvt ltd co. I read content of your website and also a couple of interviews by Mr. Mukherjea and Mr. Ranjan. I have a few questions\r\n\r\n1) I got your 10% topline growth criterion along with 15% ROCE for last 10 years. Do you sell cos in your portfolio when they stop showing 10% topline growth or hold them strictly for next 10 years?\r\n\r\n2) Which sectors do you pick cos from and which sectors do you avoid?\r\n\r\n3) Whats the minimum amount you accept?\r\n\r\n4) Which brokerage do you open an account for your clients with?'),
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(25836, 28, 3965, 'submit_ip', '49.33.250.248'),
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(25841, 29, 3966, 'your-message', 'Hello, Interested in your PMS offering. Would like to discuss this with you. Please call back on the mobile number provided, Thx'),
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(25843, 29, 3966, 'submit_ip', '165.225.104.101'),
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(25855, 28, 3968, 'your-message', 'Hi I am inquiring about your firm\'s potential interest in reviewing opportunities of a Swiss tech company, Hollywood film company, renewable energy in Europe and European real estate. '),
(25856, 28, 3968, 'submit_time', '2019-12-03 14:06:40'),
(25857, 28, 3968, 'submit_ip', '41.13.124.6'),
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(25863, 1662, 3969, 'submit_ip', '39.109.192.190'),
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(25865, 29, 3970, 'text-604', 'Jayesh Nair'),
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(25868, 29, 3970, 'your-message', 'Hello -\r\nKeen to know about your PMS service. Let me know how we can connect.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nJayesh'),
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(26021, 29, 3994, 'your-message', 'i am interested in PMS for 25 lakh   at early date as the window for minimum amount is being closed in this month.Please confirm about scheme being open.'),
(26022, 29, 3994, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 06:05:08'),
(26023, 29, 3994, 'submit_ip', '122.179.170.212'),
(26024, 29, 3995, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26025, 29, 3995, 'text-604', 'Ravi Kiran N'),
(26026, 29, 3995, 'email-510', 'n.ravikiran@outlook.com'),
(26027, 29, 3995, 'tel-299', '9845033419'),
(26028, 29, 3995, 'your-message', 'I am interested in availing your PMS offering.  Please have someone call me with details'),
(26029, 29, 3995, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 06:26:50'),
(26030, 29, 3995, 'submit_ip', '124.124.236.203'),
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(26032, 29, 3996, 'text-604', 'Jithendra'),
(26033, 29, 3996, 'email-510', 'zithu21@gmail.com'),
(26034, 29, 3996, 'tel-299', '9959227700'),
(26035, 29, 3996, 'your-message', 'Does your service provide small investors as well? If so please contact me.'),
(26036, 29, 3996, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 07:04:21'),
(26037, 29, 3996, 'submit_ip', '203.212.236.48'),
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(26039, 29, 3997, 'text-604', 'Gopal Balakrishna Phadnis'),
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(26042, 29, 3997, 'your-message', 'Need to speak to a customer of yours ...'),
(26043, 29, 3997, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 07:43:08'),
(26044, 29, 3997, 'submit_ip', '49.206.23.1'),
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(26058, 1662, 4000, 'your-name', 'Ankit Koli'),
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(26062, 1662, 4000, 'submit_ip', '122.161.164.97'),
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(26064, 28, 4001, 'text-996', 'alpha assetz'),
(26065, 28, 4001, 'email-563', 'shaik.amzad@alphaassetz.com'),
(26066, 28, 4001, 'tel-182', '7625068221'),
(26067, 28, 4001, 'your-message', 'need empanelment with you..'),
(26068, 28, 4001, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 09:50:43'),
(26069, 28, 4001, 'submit_ip', '122.181.38.233'),
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(26074, 2456, 4002, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 10:01:10'),
(26075, 2456, 4002, 'submit_ip', '122.181.38.233'),
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(26077, 29, 4003, 'text-604', 'vinod bagga'),
(26078, 29, 4003, 'email-510', 'vinod00seven@gmail.com'),
(26079, 29, 4003, 'tel-299', '9560485160'),
(26080, 29, 4003, 'your-message', 'hi ….. looking to invest money into pms  …… need to understand few terms and conditions mentioned on ur website …. kindly call and help ….. thanks !!!'),
(26081, 29, 4003, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 10:07:02'),
(26082, 29, 4003, 'submit_ip', '49.207.70.239'),
(26083, 29, 4004, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26084, 29, 4004, 'text-604', 'P S V SUNDRAVADIVEL'),
(26085, 29, 4004, 'email-510', 'psvsv71966@gmail.com'),
(26086, 29, 4004, 'tel-299', '9360311664'),
(26087, 29, 4004, 'your-message', 'I want to avail your PMS service.Please inform me the details.'),
(26088, 29, 4004, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 10:07:50'),
(26089, 29, 4004, 'submit_ip', '157.46.121.29'),
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(26091, 29, 4005, 'text-604', 'P S V SUNDRAVADIVEL'),
(26092, 29, 4005, 'email-510', 'psvsv71966@gmail.com'),
(26093, 29, 4005, 'tel-299', '9360311664'),
(26094, 29, 4005, 'your-message', 'I want to avail your PMS service.Please inform me the details of your PMS.'),
(26095, 29, 4005, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 10:10:23'),
(26096, 29, 4005, 'submit_ip', '157.46.121.29'),
(26097, 1662, 4006, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26098, 1662, 4006, 'your-name', 'Ashish M'),
(26099, 1662, 4006, 'your-email', 'ashish.external@gmail.com'),
(26100, 1662, 4006, 'tel-309', '02067482400'),
(26101, 1662, 4006, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 11:10:35'),
(26102, 1662, 4006, 'submit_ip', '49.248.38.178'),
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(26104, 1662, 4007, 'your-name', 'aakanksha chopra'),
(26105, 1662, 4007, 'your-email', 'aakankshac@ashikagroup.com'),
(26106, 1662, 4007, 'tel-309', '09649884564'),
(26107, 1662, 4007, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 12:18:47'),
(26108, 1662, 4007, 'submit_ip', '49.36.8.252'),
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(26110, 1662, 4008, 'your-name', 'nisit gadia'),
(26111, 1662, 4008, 'your-email', 'nisitjimmy@gmail.com'),
(26112, 1662, 4008, 'tel-309', '9582804469'),
(26113, 1662, 4008, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 12:47:18'),
(26114, 1662, 4008, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.111'),
(26115, 1662, 4009, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26116, 1662, 4009, 'your-name', 'SHAHZAD ALI'),
(26117, 1662, 4009, 'your-email', 'imshahzad18@gmail.com'),
(26118, 1662, 4009, 'tel-309', '8017217418'),
(26119, 1662, 4009, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 13:30:53'),
(26120, 1662, 4009, 'submit_ip', '42.110.151.68'),
(26121, 2456, 4010, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26122, 2456, 4010, 'your-name', 'Eshaan Pimpale'),
(26123, 2456, 4010, 'your-email', 'eshaan.pimpale@gmail.com'),
(26124, 2456, 4010, 'tel-971', '9823399779'),
(26125, 2456, 4010, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 13:42:25'),
(26126, 2456, 4010, 'submit_ip', '195.122.188.71'),
(26127, 29, 4011, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26128, 29, 4011, 'text-604', 'Eshaan Pimpale'),
(26129, 29, 4011, 'email-510', 'eshaan.pimpale@gmail.com'),
(26130, 29, 4011, 'tel-299', '+4915142407387'),
(26131, 29, 4011, 'your-message', 'Dear Marcellus Team, \r\nI am an NRI based in Germany and would like to know if you handle investments from OCI card holders also. \r\nThank you in advance\r\n'),
(26132, 29, 4011, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 14:02:47'),
(26133, 29, 4011, 'submit_ip', '195.122.188.71'),
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(26135, 1662, 4012, 'your-name', 'GEORGE P BABU'),
(26136, 1662, 4012, 'your-email', 'immanuelholdings7@gmail.com'),
(26137, 1662, 4012, 'tel-309', '9603897661'),
(26138, 1662, 4012, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 14:54:14'),
(26139, 1662, 4012, 'submit_ip', '192.140.155.169'),
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(26141, 29, 4013, 'text-604', 'omkar hase'),
(26142, 29, 4013, 'email-510', 'omkarhase17@gmail.com'),
(26143, 29, 4013, 'tel-299', '08446161194'),
(26144, 29, 4013, 'your-message', ''),
(26145, 29, 4013, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 15:09:20'),
(26146, 29, 4013, 'submit_ip', '27.106.76.159'),
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(26148, 1662, 4014, 'your-name', 'Kashish Shambhwani'),
(26149, 1662, 4014, 'your-email', 'kashishshambhwani@gmail.com'),
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(26151, 1662, 4014, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 16:40:58'),
(26152, 1662, 4014, 'submit_ip', '43.230.184.42'),
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(26154, 2456, 4015, 'your-name', 'Kashish Shambhwani'),
(26155, 2456, 4015, 'your-email', 'kashishshambhwani@gmail.com'),
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(26157, 2456, 4015, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 16:41:54'),
(26158, 2456, 4015, 'submit_ip', '43.230.184.42'),
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(26160, 1662, 4016, 'your-name', 'Anil'),
(26161, 1662, 4016, 'your-email', 'anil.john13@gmail.com'),
(26162, 1662, 4016, 'tel-309', '9880030061'),
(26163, 1662, 4016, 'submit_time', '2019-12-04 18:24:48'),
(26164, 1662, 4016, 'submit_ip', '122.167.237.248'),
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(26166, 1662, 4017, 'your-name', 'vvs manian'),
(26167, 1662, 4017, 'your-email', 'manianvvs@yahoo.com'),
(26168, 1662, 4017, 'tel-309', '9841051005'),
(26169, 1662, 4017, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 01:33:56'),
(26170, 1662, 4017, 'submit_ip', '117.193.57.106'),
(26171, 29, 4018, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26172, 29, 4018, 'text-604', 'Amit Jaisingh'),
(26173, 29, 4018, 'email-510', 'amitshilpi2002@gmail.com'),
(26174, 29, 4018, 'tel-299', '9920019623'),
(26175, 29, 4018, 'your-message', ''),
(26176, 29, 4018, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 02:53:51'),
(26177, 29, 4018, 'submit_ip', '103.105.227.66'),
(26178, 29, 4019, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26179, 29, 4019, 'text-604', 'Amit Jaisingh'),
(26180, 29, 4019, 'email-510', 'amitshilpi2002@gmail.com'),
(26181, 29, 4019, 'tel-299', '9920019623'),
(26182, 29, 4019, 'your-message', ''),
(26183, 29, 4019, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 02:53:52'),
(26184, 29, 4019, 'submit_ip', '103.105.227.66'),
(26185, 2456, 4020, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26186, 2456, 4020, 'your-name', 'ASHWIN'),
(26187, 2456, 4020, 'your-email', 'ASHANKER@GMAIL.COM'),
(26188, 2456, 4020, 'tel-971', '9900214175'),
(26189, 2456, 4020, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 03:29:03'),
(26190, 2456, 4020, 'submit_ip', '202.135.245.4'),
(26191, 1662, 4021, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26192, 1662, 4021, 'your-name', 'Jitin Babu'),
(26193, 1662, 4021, 'your-email', 'jitin.babu@bankoncube.com'),
(26194, 1662, 4021, 'tel-309', '8657455963'),
(26195, 1662, 4021, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 04:49:33'),
(26196, 1662, 4021, 'submit_ip', '49.36.7.24'),
(26197, 1662, 4022, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26198, 1662, 4022, 'your-name', 'krimica'),
(26199, 1662, 4022, 'your-email', 'ksojitra17@gmail.com'),
(26200, 1662, 4022, 'tel-309', '9137658414'),
(26201, 1662, 4022, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 04:59:57'),
(26202, 1662, 4022, 'submit_ip', '60.254.42.167'),
(26203, 1662, 4023, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26204, 1662, 4023, 'your-name', 'Mihir Dayma'),
(26205, 1662, 4023, 'your-email', 'mihirdayma@gmail.com'),
(26206, 1662, 4023, 'tel-309', '09533213354'),
(26207, 1662, 4023, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 05:16:21'),
(26208, 1662, 4023, 'submit_ip', '202.65.159.66'),
(26209, 29, 4024, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26210, 29, 4024, 'text-604', 'shaik '),
(26211, 29, 4024, 'email-510', 'amzad82@gmail.com'),
(26212, 29, 4024, 'tel-299', '7829063900'),
(26213, 29, 4024, 'your-message', 'can you send me your portfolio list/stocks..'),
(26214, 29, 4024, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 05:30:27'),
(26215, 29, 4024, 'submit_ip', '122.181.38.233'),
(26216, 29, 4025, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26217, 29, 4025, 'text-604', 'JSSMurthy'),
(26218, 29, 4025, 'email-510', 'sundarjsm@yahoo.com'),
(26219, 29, 4025, 'tel-299', '9004880339'),
(26220, 29, 4025, 'your-message', 'Want to know PMS details'),
(26221, 29, 4025, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 06:40:44'),
(26222, 29, 4025, 'submit_ip', '106.209.161.36'),
(26223, 1662, 4026, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26224, 1662, 4026, 'your-name', 'sonal minhas'),
(26225, 1662, 4026, 'your-email', 'sonal.minhas@gmail.com'),
(26226, 1662, 4026, 'tel-309', '09910030423'),
(26227, 1662, 4026, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 06:58:31'),
(26228, 1662, 4026, 'submit_ip', '59.144.105.58'),
(26229, 28, 4027, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26230, 28, 4027, 'text-996', 'Swati lahiry'),
(26231, 28, 4027, 'email-563', 'swatil@ramigroup.com'),
(26232, 28, 4027, 'tel-182', '9820299365'),
(26233, 28, 4027, 'your-message', 'We are a single family office based in Mumbai. Would like to explore the products offered by you.'),
(26234, 28, 4027, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 07:33:05'),
(26235, 28, 4027, 'submit_ip', '125.99.126.182'),
(26236, 29, 4028, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26237, 29, 4028, 'text-604', 'Rohan'),
(26238, 29, 4028, 'email-510', 'rohangaur91@gmail.com'),
(26239, 29, 4028, 'tel-299', ''),
(26240, 29, 4028, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nBeing an investor and working in the US, I am curious how can I bifurcate my investments into US and Indian markets. Do you just invest in Indian markets? Please let me know.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nRohan'),
(26241, 29, 4028, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 07:49:59'),
(26242, 29, 4028, 'submit_ip', '71.61.250.148'),
(26243, 1662, 4029, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26244, 1662, 4029, 'your-name', 'Vivek Rajaraman'),
(26245, 1662, 4029, 'your-email', 'vivek.rajaraman@sanctumwealth.com'),
(26246, 1662, 4029, 'tel-309', '9920559377'),
(26247, 1662, 4029, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 08:29:25'),
(26248, 1662, 4029, 'submit_ip', '14.140.172.26'),
(26249, 28, 4030, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26250, 28, 4030, 'text-996', 'V Ramakrishnan'),
(26251, 28, 4030, 'email-563', 'vramakrishnan@motilaloswal.com'),
(26252, 28, 4030, 'tel-182', '9884033454'),
(26253, 28, 4030, 'your-message', 'Clarus RCM Infotech Pvt Ltd - CCP0858, unable to login, PMS account activated on Nov 23 2019. Client is getting frustrated'),
(26254, 28, 4030, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 09:35:22'),
(26255, 28, 4030, 'submit_ip', '122.165.114.137'),
(26256, 29, 4031, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26257, 29, 4031, 'text-604', 'Sanjeev Kumar'),
(26258, 29, 4031, 'email-510', 'sksaini4@hotmail.com'),
(26259, 29, 4031, 'tel-299', '09899887780'),
(26260, 29, 4031, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to start one PMS. Would you please clarify below queries\r\na) Minimum Investment\r\nb) I\'m NRI, can I invest on my spouse name (House wife)?\r\nc) What is the fee structure?\r\nd) what is the procedure &amp; How long it will take to open PMS?\r\ne) How to monitor PMS regularly?\r\nf) What is your strategy to save the capital if market turn to worst?\r\ng) Is it right time to invest If I have 5 year view from here?\r\nh) How many stock will be there is portfolio (Tentative)\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nSanjeev Kumar'),
(26261, 29, 4031, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 09:57:45'),
(26262, 29, 4031, 'submit_ip', '203.241.147.42'),
(26263, 28, 4032, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26264, 28, 4032, 'text-996', 'Nimesh Kanani'),
(26265, 28, 4032, 'email-563', 'nimeshkanani@rediffmail.com'),
(26266, 28, 4032, 'tel-182', '9867722677'),
(26267, 28, 4032, 'your-message', 'Please call for pms'),
(26268, 28, 4032, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 10:19:43'),
(26269, 28, 4032, 'submit_ip', '171.77.129.86'),
(26270, 29, 4033, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26271, 29, 4033, 'text-604', 'Arvind Narang'),
(26272, 29, 4033, 'email-510', 'arvindnarang8@gmail.com'),
(26273, 29, 4033, 'tel-299', '9324216644'),
(26274, 29, 4033, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurabh\r\nI live in Odyssey-2 Hiranandani Gardens.  I believe you are in Odyssey-1.\r\nUnderstand that you have set up your own PMS.  May be we can meet some time and you can share some of the merits of investing in your PMS.\r\nLet me know.\r\nBest......Arvind'),
(26275, 29, 4033, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 11:01:52'),
(26276, 29, 4033, 'submit_ip', '180.151.143.63'),
(26277, 2456, 4034, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26278, 2456, 4034, 'your-name', 'Arvind K Narang'),
(26279, 2456, 4034, 'your-email', 'arvindnarang8@gmail.com'),
(26280, 2456, 4034, 'tel-971', '9324216644'),
(26281, 2456, 4034, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 11:02:50'),
(26282, 2456, 4034, 'submit_ip', '180.151.143.63'),
(26283, 1662, 4035, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26284, 1662, 4035, 'your-name', 'sanjay kothari'),
(26285, 1662, 4035, 'your-email', 'sanjaykothari21@gmail.com'),
(26286, 1662, 4035, 'tel-309', '08879440431'),
(26287, 1662, 4035, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 11:34:33'),
(26288, 1662, 4035, 'submit_ip', '110.173.185.146'),
(26289, 1662, 4036, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26290, 1662, 4036, 'your-name', 'Gaurav'),
(26291, 1662, 4036, 'your-email', 'ratav87@gmail.com'),
(26292, 1662, 4036, 'tel-309', '7738567134'),
(26293, 1662, 4036, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 11:55:40'),
(26294, 1662, 4036, 'submit_ip', '113.193.125.183'),
(26295, 1662, 4037, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26296, 1662, 4037, 'your-name', 'Rahul Narayan'),
(26297, 1662, 4037, 'your-email', 'rn.narayan26@gmail.com'),
(26298, 1662, 4037, 'tel-309', '9769983391'),
(26299, 1662, 4037, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 12:00:38'),
(26300, 1662, 4037, 'submit_ip', '183.87.63.166'),
(26301, 1662, 4038, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26302, 1662, 4038, 'your-name', 'Gaurav'),
(26303, 1662, 4038, 'your-email', 'ratav87@gmail.com'),
(26304, 1662, 4038, 'tel-309', '7738567134'),
(26305, 1662, 4038, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 12:04:24'),
(26306, 1662, 4038, 'submit_ip', '113.193.125.183'),
(26307, 1662, 4039, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26308, 1662, 4039, 'your-name', 'Janmejay Palei'),
(26309, 1662, 4039, 'your-email', 'janmejaypalei238@gmail.com'),
(26310, 1662, 4039, 'tel-309', '7588234895'),
(26311, 1662, 4039, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 12:22:14'),
(26312, 1662, 4039, 'submit_ip', '112.133.244.170'),
(26313, 29, 4040, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26314, 29, 4040, 'text-604', 'Satish'),
(26315, 29, 4040, 'email-510', 'satish.e@gmail.com'),
(26316, 29, 4040, 'tel-299', '9985549933'),
(26317, 29, 4040, 'your-message', 'My stock broker (ICICIDirect) suggested your PMS and asked me to open an account with you. He mentioned that if I open the account thru ICICIDirect, there is no additional distributor fees that is deducted from the client portfolio in your PMS, both one time and recurring. Please confirm if this is true.'),
(26318, 29, 4040, 'submit_time', '2019-12-05 12:52:57'),
(26319, 29, 4040, 'submit_ip', '106.200.150.225'),
(26320, 28, 4041, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(26321, 28, 4041, 'text-996', 'PARIMAL SHAH '),
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(26930, 29, 4131, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to understand what kind of services I can avail. \r\nRegards\r\n-Vineet\r\nNew Delhi \r\n\r\n'),
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(26955, 29, 4135, 'your-message', 'I am happy with your profiles and would like to invest 30 lakhs as soon as possible.  Can you give me a call on my mobile number or pass on your contact.  Thank  you.'),
(26956, 29, 4135, 'submit_time', '2019-12-08 07:40:00'),
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(26962, 29, 4136, 'your-message', 'Pls have someone call me up at my number'),
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(26975, 29, 4138, 'your-message', 'We\'re looking for website owners like yourself who want to automate their existing business and make some extra income... Continuous Residual Income and the product practically sells itself on auto pilot. Check out: http://trimurl.co/AutomateAnyBusiness.'),
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(27027, 1662, 4146, 'submit', 'Send'),
(27028, 1662, 4146, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 04:18:25'),
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(27034, 29, 4147, 'your-message', 'Hi Team, \r\nPlease let me know the details for opening PMS. Can you please share the audited report of the performances figures for FY19 20'),
(27035, 29, 4147, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 05:37:01'),
(27036, 29, 4147, 'submit_ip', '165.225.104.106'),
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(27041, 29, 4148, 'your-message', 'Lets Meet !!'),
(27042, 29, 4148, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 07:16:08'),
(27043, 29, 4148, 'submit_ip', '182.75.110.242'),
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(27049, 1662, 4149, 'submit_ip', '182.74.196.78'),
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(27051, 29, 4150, 'text-604', 'Shresth Jain'),
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(27054, 29, 4150, 'your-message', 'We would like to invest with Marcellus and avail of its PMS service.Kindly get in touch with us.'),
(27055, 29, 4150, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 08:13:51'),
(27056, 29, 4150, 'submit_ip', '182.72.82.226'),
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(27062, 1662, 4151, 'submit_ip', '14.141.124.11'),
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(27064, 1662, 4152, 'your-name', 'Kevin Tauro'),
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(27067, 1662, 4152, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 12:20:01'),
(27068, 1662, 4152, 'submit_ip', '42.106.252.6'),
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(27070, 29, 4153, 'text-604', 'Atul Kumar'),
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(27073, 29, 4153, 'your-message', 'Please contact me as i want to invest through you. '),
(27074, 29, 4153, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 13:11:37'),
(27075, 29, 4153, 'submit_ip', '106.209.217.244'),
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(27083, 29, 4155, 'text-604', 'santosh biradar'),
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(27088, 29, 4155, 'submit_ip', '1.39.147.58'),
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(27090, 29, 4156, 'text-604', 'Srihari '),
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(27093, 29, 4156, 'your-message', 'Planning to invest 25 lacs in PMS, kindly share all details and the cost associated with it.'),
(27094, 29, 4156, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 14:36:18'),
(27095, 29, 4156, 'submit_ip', '2.50.134.79'),
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(27097, 29, 4157, 'text-604', 'Bhupesh Garg'),
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(27100, 29, 4157, 'your-message', 'I\'m a U.S. citizen and an OCI card holder.\r\n\r\nCan a U.S. citizen participate in Indian stock markets?\r\n\r\nIf yes, what financial products you offer?\r\n\r\nThanking you.'),
(27101, 29, 4157, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 16:03:35'),
(27102, 29, 4157, 'submit_ip', '98.196.108.197'),
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(27104, 29, 4158, 'text-604', 'Bhupesh Garg'),
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(27107, 29, 4158, 'your-message', 'I\'m a U.S. citizen and an OCI card holder.\r\n\r\nCan a U.S. citizen participate in Indian stock markets?\r\n\r\nIf yes, what financial products you offer?\r\n\r\nThanking you.'),
(27108, 29, 4158, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 16:04:06'),
(27109, 29, 4158, 'submit_ip', '98.196.108.197'),
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(27114, 1662, 4159, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 18:59:44'),
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(27120, 1662, 4160, 'submit', 'Send'),
(27121, 1662, 4160, 'submit_time', '2019-12-09 20:25:20'),
(27122, 1662, 4160, 'submit_ip', '183.111.197.102'),
(27123, 28, 4161, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27124, 28, 4161, 'text-996', 'Abhinav Ashu'),
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(27126, 28, 4161, 'tel-182', '9820166556'),
(27127, 28, 4161, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in your pms. Pls guide on the way forward '),
(27128, 28, 4161, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 01:47:33'),
(27129, 28, 4161, 'submit_ip', '49.36.14.39'),
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(27135, 1662, 4162, 'submit_ip', '150.31.177.48'),
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(27137, 29, 4163, 'text-604', 'Abhinav Ashu'),
(27138, 29, 4163, 'email-510', 'neogene_concepts@yahoo.com'),
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(27140, 29, 4163, 'your-message', 'Keen on the pms'),
(27141, 29, 4163, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 02:39:02'),
(27142, 29, 4163, 'submit_ip', '42.106.218.130'),
(27143, 1662, 4164, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27144, 1662, 4164, 'your-name', 'Kedar Gunjkar'),
(27145, 1662, 4164, 'your-email', 'kedarng@gmail.com'),
(27146, 1662, 4164, 'tel-309', '9971997577'),
(27147, 1662, 4164, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 04:51:47'),
(27148, 1662, 4164, 'submit_ip', '182.58.218.238'),
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(27150, 1662, 4165, 'your-name', 'Ratnesh'),
(27151, 1662, 4165, 'your-email', 'ratnesh196@gmail.com'),
(27152, 1662, 4165, 'tel-309', '+918285521841'),
(27153, 1662, 4165, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 05:00:26'),
(27154, 1662, 4165, 'submit_ip', '182.69.216.52'),
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(27156, 1662, 4166, 'your-name', 'Deepa Bhatia '),
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(27158, 1662, 4166, 'tel-309', '8369902695'),
(27159, 1662, 4166, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 05:35:08'),
(27160, 1662, 4166, 'submit_ip', '49.32.210.143'),
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(27162, 1662, 4167, 'your-name', 'Ayushi'),
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(27165, 1662, 4167, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 05:43:34'),
(27166, 1662, 4167, 'submit_ip', '49.33.130.131'),
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(27172, 1662, 4168, 'submit_ip', '49.33.130.131'),
(27173, 29, 4169, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27174, 29, 4169, 'text-604', 'SANJAI KARUNAMOORTHY'),
(27175, 29, 4169, 'email-510', 'sanjai1997@gmail.com'),
(27176, 29, 4169, 'tel-299', '9444918282'),
(27177, 29, 4169, 'your-message', 'Hello good morning,\r\nI want to start a pms \r\nSo I would like to know few details about the investments and \r\nI also want to know if there is any branchs in Chennai.\r\nThank you.'),
(27178, 29, 4169, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 06:00:18'),
(27179, 29, 4169, 'submit_ip', '49.37.207.205'),
(27180, 29, 4170, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27181, 29, 4170, 'text-604', 'SANJAI KARUNAMOORTHY'),
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(27183, 29, 4170, 'tel-299', '9444918282'),
(27184, 29, 4170, 'your-message', 'Is there any branch in Chennai \r\nPlease share the details \r\nThank you'),
(27185, 29, 4170, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 06:01:52'),
(27186, 29, 4170, 'submit_ip', '49.37.207.205'),
(27187, 2456, 4171, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27188, 2456, 4171, 'your-name', 'Navin Vaz'),
(27189, 2456, 4171, 'your-email', 'stormshadow115@ymail.com'),
(27190, 2456, 4171, 'tel-971', '9986669584'),
(27191, 2456, 4171, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 06:11:37'),
(27192, 2456, 4171, 'submit_ip', '125.99.230.36'),
(27193, 1662, 4172, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27194, 1662, 4172, 'your-name', 'SUDHEER VERMA'),
(27195, 1662, 4172, 'your-email', 'heysudheer@gmail.com'),
(27196, 1662, 4172, 'tel-309', '09743225999'),
(27197, 1662, 4172, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 06:23:35'),
(27198, 1662, 4172, 'submit_ip', '122.175.120.144'),
(27199, 29, 4173, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27200, 29, 4173, 'text-604', 'Lala Mathai'),
(27201, 29, 4173, 'email-510', 'lalamathai@gmail.com'),
(27202, 29, 4173, 'tel-299', '9841020252'),
(27203, 29, 4173, 'your-message', 'Interested in your PMS .\r\nPl ask Mr. Rakshit Ranjan to contact me. by email first.\r\n I was in touch with him from Ambit.'),
(27204, 29, 4173, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 06:55:36'),
(27205, 29, 4173, 'submit_ip', '27.5.231.26'),
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(27207, 28, 4174, 'text-996', 'JackGault'),
(27208, 28, 4174, 'email-563', 'chq@financier.com'),
(27209, 28, 4174, 'tel-182', '85115527483'),
(27210, 28, 4174, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\n \r\nMy name is Jack and I work for CHQ Wealth as an Investment Adviser. We\'re a unique company as we give US investors the opportunity to make a guaranteed return of 9% every year. We\'re able to do this as we own one of the leading commercial finance companies in the UK. Our investment fund provides secured loans to healthy, UK Corporations. \r\n \r\nThese commercial loans are fully secured by UK real estate (both commercial and residential). This fully protects us in the event of any default from the borrower. We also take care of the credit sanctioning process from our UK offices. \r\n \r\nA lot of our investors tend to be business owners, high net worth individuals and others who are seeking a secure but lucrative investment opportunity. \r\n \r\nI wanted to reach out to you (I hope you don\'t mind!) and see if you\'d be interested in learning more about us? \r\n \r\nYou can do so by visiting this page on our website https://www.chqwealth.com/the-offering \r\n \r\nBest regards, \r\n \r\nJack \r\nhttps://chqwealth.com'),
(27211, 28, 4174, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(27213, 28, 4174, 'submit_ip', '185.93.3.110'),
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(27218, 1662, 4175, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 07:31:24'),
(27219, 1662, 4175, 'submit_ip', '112.79.193.158'),
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(27224, 1662, 4176, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 07:57:54'),
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(27248, 29, 4180, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI am looking to invest in PMS of marcellus.\r\n\r\ncan you let me know the products available and their performance.\r\n\r\nYou can call me on my mobile - +966-562058177 ( preferably in the evening 3pm-7pm india time).\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nParthiban.'),
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(27258, 29, 4182, 'text-604', 'Satyajit '),
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(27260, 29, 4182, 'tel-299', '9503312840'),
(27261, 29, 4182, 'your-message', 'Regarding opening account.'),
(27262, 29, 4182, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 09:08:46'),
(27263, 29, 4182, 'submit_ip', '106.210.224.202'),
(27264, 28, 4183, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27265, 28, 4183, 'text-996', 'M.I Taher'),
(27266, 28, 4183, 'email-563', 'Taher.mm@gmail.com'),
(27267, 28, 4183, 'tel-182', '00971 52 9115545'),
(27268, 28, 4183, 'your-message', ' I am keen in taking up the distribution for UAE, Pls call me for further discussion. '),
(27269, 28, 4183, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 09:32:18'),
(27270, 28, 4183, 'submit_ip', '87.200.64.39'),
(27271, 29, 4184, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27272, 29, 4184, 'text-604', 'Rahul Dhoot'),
(27273, 29, 4184, 'email-510', 'rrd6f4@gmail.com'),
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(27275, 29, 4184, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS'),
(27276, 29, 4184, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 09:44:34'),
(27277, 29, 4184, 'submit_ip', '103.229.27.30'),
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(27279, 29, 4185, 'text-604', 'santosh biradar'),
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(27281, 29, 4185, 'tel-299', '9538282444'),
(27282, 29, 4185, 'your-message', 'I am interested in PMS offered by MARCELLUS'),
(27283, 29, 4185, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 09:49:57'),
(27284, 29, 4185, 'submit_ip', '1.39.155.51'),
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(27286, 29, 4186, 'text-604', 'Yash Gandhi'),
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(27291, 29, 4186, 'submit_ip', '182.75.110.242'),
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(27293, 29, 4187, 'text-604', 'Florence Elizabeth'),
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(27295, 29, 4187, 'tel-299', ''),
(27296, 29, 4187, 'your-message', 'Unlimited FREE Traffic + Website On Autopilot\r\n\r\nImagine making $50,000+ PER MONTH WITHOUT the need to have a mailing list to get started or any experience…\r\n\r\n...and doing it in just 20 MINUTES a day.\r\n\r\nThat\'s EXACTLY what you\'ll learn how to do when you pick up Lazee Profitz.\r\n\r\nclick here----&gt;&gt; http://bit.ly/unlimitedwebtrafficandfreesite\r\n\r\nLearn the same system that made them $50,000+ PER MONTH...\r\n\r\nclick here---&gt;&gt; http://bit.ly/unlimitedwebtrafficandfreesite\r\n\r\nJason and Mosh are exposing a top SECRET software for making money online that is super EASY…\r\n\r\nForget about wasting your time with the same rehashed garbage that you\'re sick and tired of seeing…\r\n\r\nWhen you pick this up, you\'ll be able to start getting results in just 30 mins/day.\r\n\r\nTo your continued success,\r\n\r\nlazee profitz\r\n\r\nhttp://bit.ly/unlimitedwebtrafficandfreesite'),
(27297, 29, 4187, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 10:16:01'),
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(27313, 1662, 4190, 'your-name', 'surendra shah'),
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(27319, 1662, 4191, 'your-name', 'PARIMAL SHAH '),
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(27325, 2456, 4192, 'your-name', 'Poonam Mehta'),
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(27331, 29, 4193, 'text-604', 'Siddharth Shah'),
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(27334, 29, 4193, 'your-message', 'I am interested in Investing Consistent Compounding Strategy for the PMS, and I willing to for the Hybrid Plan in Fees Structure. Please help me understand your Hybrid Plan in Fees Structure. \r\nPlease also advise about the PMS strategy. \r\nLooking forward to hear from your end.'),
(27335, 29, 4193, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 14:02:59'),
(27336, 29, 4193, 'submit_ip', '123.201.67.50'),
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(27338, 28, 4194, 'text-996', 'GAURAV KUMAR'),
(27339, 28, 4194, 'email-563', 'gaurav.stena@gmail.com'),
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(27341, 28, 4194, 'your-message', 'Hi. I am interested in distribution of your PMS. Based in Mumbai. Only distribute the best products. '),
(27342, 28, 4194, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 14:05:43'),
(27343, 28, 4194, 'submit_ip', '103.51.235.243'),
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(27351, 29, 4196, 'text-604', 'Vipul Jain'),
(27352, 29, 4196, 'email-510', 'v.jain@ckbhospitalforwomen.com'),
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(27354, 29, 4196, 'your-message', 'Hi - I am interested in investing in the PMS. '),
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(27356, 29, 4196, 'submit_ip', '110.227.131.245'),
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(27387, 28, 4201, 'your-message', 'I need support for equity trading '),
(27388, 28, 4201, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 20:30:51'),
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(27394, 29, 4202, 'your-message', 'I need advice for equity trading. '),
(27395, 29, 4202, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 20:31:42'),
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(27398, 1662, 4203, 'your-name', 'Nimit'),
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(27401, 1662, 4203, 'submit_time', '2019-12-10 22:12:13'),
(27402, 1662, 4203, 'submit_ip', '122.170.63.95'),
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(27404, 1662, 4204, 'your-name', 'RAJNEESH RAO THOKNE'),
(27405, 1662, 4204, 'your-email', 'RTHOKNE@REDIFFMAIL.COM'),
(27406, 1662, 4204, 'tel-309', '9479226491'),
(27407, 1662, 4204, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 04:52:32'),
(27408, 1662, 4204, 'submit_ip', '210.212.151.4'),
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(27410, 1662, 4205, 'your-name', 'Jamsheed Poncha'),
(27411, 1662, 4205, 'your-email', 'jponcha@tata.com'),
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(27413, 1662, 4205, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 05:16:40'),
(27414, 1662, 4205, 'submit_ip', '183.87.171.151');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(27415, 29, 4206, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27416, 29, 4206, 'text-604', 'Hrishikesh Shende'),
(27417, 29, 4206, 'email-510', 'rishishende@gmail.com'),
(27418, 29, 4206, 'tel-299', '9999515544'),
(27419, 29, 4206, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest with Marcellus. Kindly contact me to advise on next steps. '),
(27420, 29, 4206, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 05:30:13'),
(27421, 29, 4206, 'submit_ip', '118.185.57.218'),
(27422, 29, 4207, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27423, 29, 4207, 'text-604', 'Samiron Naba Saikia'),
(27424, 29, 4207, 'email-510', 'saikiasamiron@yahoo.co.in'),
(27425, 29, 4207, 'tel-299', '9864447763'),
(27426, 29, 4207, 'your-message', 'what is the minimum investment amount to your PMS?'),
(27427, 29, 4207, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 05:53:34'),
(27428, 29, 4207, 'submit_ip', '106.203.158.131'),
(27429, 29, 4208, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27430, 29, 4208, 'text-604', 'Srikrishna Modani'),
(27431, 29, 4208, 'email-510', 'skmodani@yahoo.co.in'),
(27432, 29, 4208, 'tel-299', '07989185487'),
(27433, 29, 4208, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS products'),
(27434, 29, 4208, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:04:31'),
(27435, 29, 4208, 'submit_ip', '106.200.166.131'),
(27436, 29, 4209, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27437, 29, 4209, 'text-604', 'rajarshi'),
(27438, 29, 4209, 'email-510', 'rajarshipanigrahi@rediffmail.com'),
(27439, 29, 4209, 'tel-299', '9886806260'),
(27440, 29, 4209, 'your-message', 'want to know more about your pms'),
(27441, 29, 4209, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:13:24'),
(27442, 29, 4209, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.50'),
(27443, 29, 4210, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27444, 29, 4210, 'text-604', 'Pankaj singh'),
(27445, 29, 4210, 'email-510', 'pksingh01@hotmail.com'),
(27446, 29, 4210, 'tel-299', '8169584944'),
(27447, 29, 4210, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nHow can i invest with you guys and how much is the minimum investment.\r\nPlease assist '),
(27448, 29, 4210, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:22:12'),
(27449, 29, 4210, 'submit_ip', '49.33.142.147'),
(27450, 1662, 4211, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27451, 1662, 4211, 'your-name', 'Sumit Jain'),
(27452, 1662, 4211, 'your-email', 'sumitjainibs@gmail.com'),
(27453, 1662, 4211, 'tel-309', '8861675313'),
(27454, 1662, 4211, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:30:29'),
(27455, 1662, 4211, 'submit_ip', '106.51.83.185'),
(27456, 29, 4212, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27457, 29, 4212, 'text-604', 'Pramod Kabra'),
(27458, 29, 4212, 'email-510', 'reema@truenorth.co.in'),
(27459, 29, 4212, 'tel-299', '7738601921'),
(27460, 29, 4212, 'your-message', 'My colleague Pramod Kabra would like to connect with your team'),
(27461, 29, 4212, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:50:56'),
(27462, 29, 4212, 'submit_ip', '106.51.12.102'),
(27463, 29, 4213, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27464, 29, 4213, 'text-604', 'Tejendrasinh Gohel'),
(27465, 29, 4213, 'email-510', 'tejendra_gohel@yahoo.com'),
(27466, 29, 4213, 'tel-299', '9572711299'),
(27467, 29, 4213, 'your-message', 'I want to start PMS in CCP. I want to start before 31st Dec 2019'),
(27468, 29, 4213, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 06:55:29'),
(27469, 29, 4213, 'submit_ip', '27.6.77.75'),
(27470, 29, 4214, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27471, 29, 4214, 'text-604', 'Alisia Coppleson'),
(27472, 29, 4214, 'email-510', 'alisia.coppleson@yahoo.com'),
(27473, 29, 4214, 'tel-299', '0313 7497578'),
(27474, 29, 4214, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nI have spoken to someone from your team about Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists.\r\n\r\nHere is a quick overview of the database:\r\n\r\nWomen\'s apparel and clothing store database is a collection of the contact details of virtually all women\'s clothing and apparel stores (including nightwear and lingerie stores) from around the world. The marketing list covers the majority of English and non-English speaking countries, including United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, parts of Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Russia and CIS and Asia. Our Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists cover most of women\'s clothing shops across all states in the USA, UK, Europe, Australia, the Middle East and Asia. Our fashion industry and Apparel Buyers Email Lists are ideal for B2B marketing. IDEAL FOR FASHION DESIGNERS. FREE LIFETIME UPDATES. DOWNLOAD.\r\n\r\nThe database currently contains 31,000+ business contact details and is being updated on a rolling basis. You will receive all the updates automatically to your member\'s area. Upon purchase the files along with an invoice will become available in your member\'s area.\r\n\r\nTo learn more about Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists, please visit https://creativebeartech.com/product/womens-clothing-and-apparel-email-lists-and-mailing-lists/\r\n\r\nSergey Greenfields\r\nFounder of Creative Bear Tech\r\nFlat 9, 1 Jardine Rd, St Katharine\'s &amp; Wapping, \r\nLondon E1W 3WD, United Kingdom\r\n+447463563696\r\nhttps://creativebeartech.com'),
(27475, 29, 4214, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 07:34:13'),
(27476, 29, 4214, 'submit_ip', '223.119.47.52'),
(27477, 29, 4215, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27478, 29, 4215, 'text-604', 'Adhinath'),
(27479, 29, 4215, 'email-510', 'adhinath.i@gmail.com'),
(27480, 29, 4215, 'tel-299', '+971505135283'),
(27481, 29, 4215, 'your-message', 'Hi I am from Abu Dhabi and I would like to invest through your PMS. Kindly let me know the contact details to know further details.'),
(27482, 29, 4215, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 07:38:16'),
(27483, 29, 4215, 'submit_ip', '91.73.56.238'),
(27484, 1662, 4216, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27485, 1662, 4216, 'your-name', 'Kedar Munshi'),
(27486, 1662, 4216, 'your-email', 'kedarmunshi@gmail.com'),
(27487, 1662, 4216, 'tel-309', '09890236656'),
(27488, 1662, 4216, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 07:58:20'),
(27489, 1662, 4216, 'submit_ip', '103.210.200.138'),
(27490, 1662, 4217, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27491, 1662, 4217, 'your-name', 'Devendra Mehta'),
(27492, 1662, 4217, 'your-email', 'mehtadevender@gmail.com'),
(27493, 1662, 4217, 'tel-309', '9825606746'),
(27494, 1662, 4217, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 08:23:58'),
(27495, 1662, 4217, 'submit_ip', '202.131.111.139'),
(27496, 29, 4218, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27497, 29, 4218, 'text-604', 'Shresth Jain'),
(27498, 29, 4218, 'email-510', 'bahubali10@yahoo.com'),
(27499, 29, 4218, 'tel-299', '9958608968'),
(27500, 29, 4218, 'your-message', 'We would like to invest.Kindly contact.We had sent a query few days back too.No reply.'),
(27501, 29, 4218, 'submit_time', '2019-12-11 08:43:10'),
(27502, 29, 4218, 'submit_ip', '150.129.108.118'),
(27503, 29, 4219, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(27504, 29, 4219, 'text-604', 'Alok Laharia'),
(27505, 29, 4219, 'email-510', 'alaharia@gmail.com'),
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(27507, 29, 4219, 'your-message', 'Need to understand your portfolio for the investment'),
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(27672, 29, 4245, 'your-message', 'Hello -- today I want to give you a tip about becoming an overnight success.\r\nWhat makes a brand an overnight success?\r\n\r\nVirality.\r\n\r\nYou can absolutely crush your competition and reach to the top overnight, just by GOING VIRAL.\r\n\r\nHow can you go vial?\r\n\r\nHere is a small step by step guide:\r\n\r\nStep #1:\r\nCreate a high quality entertaining or emotional video.\r\n\r\nStep #2:\r\nUpload it on all social channels and amplify the distribution using ads.\r\n\r\nStep #3:\r\nReach out to the influencers and ask them to share your video.\r\n\r\n\r\nAs you can see, It’s not very hard to go viral. Last 2 steps are really easy. But most people never finish step#1 correctly because of which step 2 and 3 don’t work.\r\n\r\nYour video must be high quality + emotional/entertaining.\r\n\r\nIt takes a lot of time to create these high-quality videos. But now you can do it in less time.\r\n\r\nUsing StockNation you can get all the stock videos that are needed to create a high-quality VIRAL Video. This will save you hours of time that you would have normally wasted in finding all the high-quality Stock videos and Images—that are now available to you in just a click of a button.\r\n\r\nHere is How it works:\r\n\r\nSign up for StockNation &gt; Search your niche related keyword &gt; Choose from literally thousands of hand picked videos\r\n\r\n&gt;&gt; http://bit.ly/stocknat &lt;&lt;\r\n\r\nBut there is a catch—This exclusive discounted price offer will end within 4 days, so Sign Up Today.\r\n\r\nAnd for a Very Limited Time, you are also getting a Brand New Cloud Based Video Editor included with StockNation...\r\n\r\n&gt;&gt; http://bit.ly/stocknat &lt;&lt;\r\n\r\nTo your success,\r\nChris\r\n\r\nPS- Go Viral Now. \r\nSignup for StockNation and get a whole search engine of thousands of HD stock videos that are important to create VIRAL CONTENT.\r\n\r\n&gt;&gt; http://bit.ly/stocknat &lt;&lt;'),
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(27907, 29, 4282, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am interested in knowing about your PMS services. Please revert. Thanks'),
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(27947, 1662, 4289, 'your-name', 'yogesh soni'),
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(27959, 29, 4291, 'text-604', 'HARSHAJIT SHETH'),
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(27962, 29, 4291, 'your-message', 'I would like to explore PMS, Marcellus offers both through resident or non-resident accounts. Kindly revert with relevant information of either of above contacts. Looking forward to hear from you soon.\r\nRegards\r\nHarshajit'),
(27963, 29, 4291, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 09:31:17'),
(27964, 29, 4291, 'submit_ip', '31.215.194.46'),
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(27966, 29, 4292, 'text-604', 'Arvind Shukla'),
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(27969, 29, 4292, 'your-message', 'I\'m a serving defence officer, due for retirement in about five years from now. I wish to invest some money in share market. I need some reliable agency to guide me/ handle my investment.'),
(27970, 29, 4292, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 10:14:48'),
(27971, 29, 4292, 'submit_ip', '27.59.147.29'),
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(27973, 28, 4293, 'text-996', 'Raj'),
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(27975, 28, 4293, 'tel-182', '007777571662'),
(27976, 28, 4293, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI am an NRI. Want to invest in your good and clean pms. Pl send me details by email or call +77777571662.'),
(27977, 28, 4293, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 11:32:59'),
(27978, 28, 4293, 'submit_ip', '178.88.118.82'),
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(27980, 28, 4294, 'text-996', 'Anilkumar Patel'),
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(27983, 28, 4294, 'your-message', 'I’m U.S. citizen. Can I invest thru Marcellus? &amp; minimum a/c to invest. I’m impressed with your team &amp; ideas. Thanks '),
(27984, 28, 4294, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 13:12:01'),
(27985, 28, 4294, 'submit_ip', '108.27.213.127'),
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(27990, 28, 4295, 'your-message', 'I’m U.S. citizen. Can I invest thru Marcellus? &amp; minimum a/c to invest. I’m impressed with your team &amp; ideas. Thanks '),
(27991, 28, 4295, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 13:12:02'),
(27992, 28, 4295, 'submit_ip', '108.27.213.127'),
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(28004, 1662, 4297, 'submit_ip', '122.183.153.16'),
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(28006, 2456, 4298, 'your-name', 'Amit'),
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(28010, 2456, 4298, 'submit_ip', '139.167.158.2'),
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(28014, 29, 4299, 'tel-299', '9719401910'),
(28015, 29, 4299, 'your-message', 'Dear sir \r\nCan we start with small amount say Rs5 lakhs with you please guide thanks'),
(28016, 29, 4299, 'submit_time', '2019-12-13 15:41:32'),
(28017, 29, 4299, 'submit_ip', '139.167.158.2'),
(28018, 28, 4300, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28019, 28, 4300, 'text-996', 'Elmerdus'),
(28020, 28, 4300, 'email-563', 'globalcannabis@yandex.com'),
(28021, 28, 4300, 'tel-182', '82656758657'),
(28022, 28, 4300, 'your-message', 'Global Cannabis Application Corporation \r\n \r\nUS OTC: “FAUPF” \r\nCanadian CSE symbol: “APP” \r\nFrankfurt: “2FA” \r\n \r\nHighlights: (Buy Recommendation Reasons) \r\n \r\n-Up 17.25% from close on Friday, possibilities to rally \r\n-Winner of the Cannabiz AI Technology award in Malta 2019 \r\n-Integrating high level monitoring and medical instruments into the technology for efficacy \r\n-Landmark Joint Venture in Israel for cultivation of Cannabis \r\n-Shay Meir leading grow operations \r\n-Partnerships in Europe for distribution \r\n-Patentable tech \r\n \r\nPlease contact globalcannabis@yandex.com for more information.'),
(28023, 28, 4300, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(28025, 28, 4300, 'submit_ip', '89.238.167.46'),
(28026, 1662, 4301, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28027, 1662, 4301, 'your-name', 'pranab barua'),
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(28030, 1662, 4301, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 01:34:56'),
(28031, 1662, 4301, 'submit_ip', '113.30.136.163'),
(28032, 1662, 4302, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28033, 1662, 4302, 'your-name', 'Rajendra n'),
(28034, 1662, 4302, 'your-email', 'n.rajendra5@yahoo.com'),
(28035, 1662, 4302, 'tel-309', '9820675589'),
(28036, 1662, 4302, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 02:26:31'),
(28037, 1662, 4302, 'submit_ip', '42.106.254.23'),
(28038, 29, 4303, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28039, 29, 4303, 'text-604', 'Anand Sadasivan'),
(28040, 29, 4303, 'email-510', 'anandyaso2014@gmail.com'),
(28041, 29, 4303, 'tel-299', '8056800337'),
(28042, 29, 4303, 'your-message', 'Interested to invest in your PMS. Convinced of your approach. Please share the docs required. Is it possible to open the account this year with 25L min? I\'m located in Madurai, Tamilnadu.'),
(28043, 29, 4303, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 03:15:07'),
(28044, 29, 4303, 'submit_ip', '122.164.234.148'),
(28045, 29, 4304, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28046, 29, 4304, 'text-604', 'Guillermo Ono'),
(28047, 29, 4304, 'email-510', 'guillermo.ono@yahoo.com'),
(28048, 29, 4304, 'tel-299', ''),
(28049, 29, 4304, 'your-message', 'Tired of paying for clicks and getting lousy results? Now you can post your ad on 1000s of advertising websites and it\'ll only cost you one flat fee per month. These ads stay up forever, this is a continual supply of organic visitors! Get more info by visiting: http://www.instantadsposted.tech'),
(28050, 29, 4304, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 04:03:11'),
(28051, 29, 4304, 'submit_ip', '104.245.145.38'),
(28052, 29, 4305, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28053, 29, 4305, 'text-604', 'Amit'),
(28054, 29, 4305, 'email-510', 'newlaxmitraders@gmail.com'),
(28055, 29, 4305, 'tel-299', '9719401910'),
(28056, 29, 4305, 'your-message', 'Sir can I start investing with you from small amount say Rs 500000 please guide and suggest thanks'),
(28057, 29, 4305, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 04:35:19'),
(28058, 29, 4305, 'submit_ip', '42.108.11.161'),
(28059, 1662, 4306, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28060, 1662, 4306, 'your-name', 'Sameer Soral '),
(28061, 1662, 4306, 'your-email', 's.soral@gmail.com'),
(28062, 1662, 4306, 'tel-309', '9610689000'),
(28063, 1662, 4306, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 06:08:28'),
(28064, 1662, 4306, 'submit_ip', '1.39.223.172'),
(28065, 1662, 4307, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28066, 1662, 4307, 'your-name', 'Manohar Wadhwa'),
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(28068, 1662, 4307, 'tel-309', '9820614555'),
(28069, 1662, 4307, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 06:15:16'),
(28070, 1662, 4307, 'submit_ip', '60.254.115.191'),
(28071, 2456, 4308, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28072, 2456, 4308, 'your-name', 'Ashok Mehta'),
(28073, 2456, 4308, 'your-email', 'unnati99@yahoo.com'),
(28074, 2456, 4308, 'tel-971', '9869261076'),
(28075, 2456, 4308, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 08:04:43'),
(28076, 2456, 4308, 'submit_ip', '103.51.233.59'),
(28077, 2456, 4309, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28078, 2456, 4309, 'your-name', 'JAY'),
(28079, 2456, 4309, 'your-email', 'HARIOMXEROX@GMAIL.COM'),
(28080, 2456, 4309, 'tel-971', '9227902804'),
(28081, 2456, 4309, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 08:56:50'),
(28082, 2456, 4309, 'submit_ip', '116.72.53.104'),
(28083, 1662, 4310, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28084, 1662, 4310, 'your-name', 'ARUN THOMAS'),
(28085, 1662, 4310, 'your-email', 'aruncherian2010@gmail.com'),
(28086, 1662, 4310, 'tel-309', '9930101745'),
(28087, 1662, 4310, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 09:02:47'),
(28088, 1662, 4310, 'submit_ip', '49.207.58.193'),
(28089, 28, 4311, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28090, 28, 4311, 'text-996', 'Aditi Palnitkar'),
(28091, 28, 4311, 'email-563', 'aspalnitkar@gmail.com'),
(28092, 28, 4311, 'tel-182', '9833189771'),
(28093, 28, 4311, 'your-message', 'Kindly share Product Presentation and Fee Structure'),
(28094, 28, 4311, 'submit_time', '2019-12-14 09:19:42'),
(28095, 28, 4311, 'submit_ip', '183.87.175.127'),
(28096, 28, 4312, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(28097, 28, 4312, 'text-996', 'Aditi Palnitkar'),
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(28264, 29, 4338, 'your-message', 'as per prior query, please let me know how to invest as U.S. CITIZEN, how to invest  1) regular money and 2) Retirement money . thanks, anil'),
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(28271, 29, 4339, 'your-message', 'hi there\r\n\r\nImrove your rank with very rare high ahrefs SEO metrics score backlinks.\r\nManual backlinks placed on quality websites which have high UR and DR ahrefs score.\r\n\r\n200 high ahrefs links:\r\nhttps://www.monkeydigital.co/product/high-ahrefs-backlinks/\r\n\r\nor get serious and get top ahrefs rank with guaranteed results\r\nhttps://www.monkeydigital.co/product/ahrefs-seo-plan/\r\n\r\n\r\nthanks\r\nMonkey Digital Team'),
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(28471, 29, 4370, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nYou know it’s true…\r\n\r\nYour competition just can’t hold a candle to the way you DELIVER real solutions to your customers on your website marcellus.in.\r\n\r\nBut it’s a shame when good people who need what you have to offer wind up settling for second best or even worse.\r\n\r\nNot only do they deserve better, you deserve to be at the top of their list.\r\n \r\nTalkWithCustomer can reliably turn your website marcellus.in into a serious, lead generating machine.\r\n\r\nWith TalkWithCustomer installed on your site, visitors can either call you immediately or schedule a call for you in the future.\r\n \r\nAnd the difference to your business can be staggering – up to 100X more leads could be yours, just by giving TalkWithCustomer a FREE 14 Day Test Drive.\r\n \r\nThere’s absolutely NO risk to you, so CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to sign up for this free test drive now.  \r\n\r\nTons more leads? You deserve it.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\nPS:  Odds are, you won’t have long to wait before seeing results:\r\nThis service makes an immediate difference in getting people on the phone right away before they have a chance to turn around and surf off to a competitor\'s website. D Traylor, Traylor Law  \r\nWhy wait any longer?  \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to take the FREE 14-Day Test Drive and start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(29418, 28, 4519, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\n \r\n23rd South East Asian Healthcare Show. \r\n22 - 24 April 2020 - Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre \r\n \r\nKLCC in April will be where you\'ll have the opportunity to secure new business opportunities. \r\nSEACare for short covers the entire profile for the medical-healthcare industries. \r\n \r\nMeet exhibitors from the European Union, China, Taiwan, S Korea, Americas and of course Malaysia. \r\n \r\nMake use of the VISITOR PRE-REGISTRTION: \r\nhttps://abcex.com/visreg/ \r\n \r\nAnd make plans for securing new products for your own markets. \r\nYou can even meet Malaysian and Singaporean Manufacturers, who are not exhibitors - simply by preregistering and making known your interest. \r\n \r\nThere\'ll be a online facility / Meeting Areas. \r\n \r\nIt is free of charge. \r\n \r\nVisas? No Problem. \r\nJust pre-reg. to visit and then use the INVITION \r\nLETTER: https://abcex.com/visa/ \r\n \r\nWe look forward to making you welcome. \r\nThe Visitor Team \r\nVisitors@abcex.com'),
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(29445, 29, 4523, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nPlease guide me how can I start investing in your PMS India growth story. Also you have got 3 different fee model for the PMS. I would like to get clarified on it. Can I expect a call please.\r\n\r\nThanks &amp; Regards,\r\nSaravanan S'),
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(29534, 29, 4537, 'your-message', 'Hello. I’d like to setup a meeting to discuss Consistent Compounders investment plan. I’m an NRI living in USA.\r\n\r\nVinay '),
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(30211, 1662, 4643, 'your-email', 'avkcal@gmail.com'),
(30212, 1662, 4643, 'tel-309', '9831419062'),
(30213, 1662, 4643, 'submit_time', '2019-12-27 15:34:33'),
(30214, 1662, 4643, 'submit_ip', '203.163.242.186'),
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(30216, 29, 4644, 'text-604', 'Nirav Raval'),
(30217, 29, 4644, 'email-510', 'nraval@gmail.com'),
(30218, 29, 4644, 'tel-299', '9909987042'),
(30219, 29, 4644, 'your-message', 'Like to more about the PMS being managed.'),
(30220, 29, 4644, 'submit_time', '2019-12-27 17:33:52'),
(30221, 29, 4644, 'submit_ip', '1.38.92.242'),
(30222, 29, 4645, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30223, 29, 4645, 'text-604', 'Sanjeev Mohanty'),
(30224, 29, 4645, 'email-510', 'sanju200708@gmail.com'),
(30225, 29, 4645, 'tel-299', '09992713456'),
(30226, 29, 4645, 'your-message', 'I want to talk to u regarding investment decisions. '),
(30227, 29, 4645, 'submit_time', '2019-12-27 17:35:24'),
(30228, 29, 4645, 'submit_ip', '106.67.98.192'),
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(30230, 29, 4646, 'text-604', 'Hasmukh Shah'),
(30231, 29, 4646, 'email-510', 'hcsconsultants@gmail.com'),
(30232, 29, 4646, 'tel-299', '9913166555'),
(30233, 29, 4646, 'your-message', 'I am interested in opening PMS account with you.I would like to know past performance and AUM of the company.'),
(30234, 29, 4646, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 06:31:29'),
(30235, 29, 4646, 'submit_ip', '103.85.10.198'),
(30236, 29, 4647, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30237, 29, 4647, 'text-604', 'SANDIP PATHYA'),
(30238, 29, 4647, 'email-510', 'SANDIPPATHYA@GMAIL.COM'),
(30239, 29, 4647, 'tel-299', '09959699255'),
(30240, 29, 4647, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI am interested in opening a PMS account. I am located at Hyderabad. Can you please reach me'),
(30241, 29, 4647, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 08:31:41'),
(30242, 29, 4647, 'submit_ip', '27.59.136.227'),
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(30244, 29, 4648, 'text-604', 'SANDIP PATHYA'),
(30245, 29, 4648, 'email-510', 'SANDIPPATHYA@GMAIL.COM'),
(30246, 29, 4648, 'tel-299', '09959699255'),
(30247, 29, 4648, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI am interested in opening a PMS account. I am located at Hyderabad. Can you please reach me'),
(30248, 29, 4648, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 08:31:41'),
(30249, 29, 4648, 'submit_ip', '27.59.136.227'),
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(30251, 1662, 4649, 'your-name', 'rishab'),
(30252, 1662, 4649, 'your-email', 'rishab9@gmail.com'),
(30253, 1662, 4649, 'tel-309', '9930194812'),
(30254, 1662, 4649, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 10:38:50'),
(30255, 1662, 4649, 'submit_ip', '49.248.14.34'),
(30256, 2456, 4650, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30257, 2456, 4650, 'your-name', 'SHAILESH GANG'),
(30258, 2456, 4650, 'your-email', 'gangshailesh@gmail.com'),
(30259, 2456, 4650, 'tel-971', '8238873931'),
(30260, 2456, 4650, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 12:26:49'),
(30261, 2456, 4650, 'submit_ip', '150.129.166.149'),
(30262, 28, 4651, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30263, 28, 4651, 'text-996', 'SHAILESH GANG'),
(30264, 28, 4651, 'email-563', 'gangshailesh@gmail.com'),
(30265, 28, 4651, 'tel-182', '8238873931'),
(30266, 28, 4651, 'your-message', 'What r your services, i m interested.'),
(30267, 28, 4651, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 12:27:33'),
(30268, 28, 4651, 'submit_ip', '150.129.166.149'),
(30269, 29, 4652, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30270, 29, 4652, 'text-604', 'SHAILESH GANG'),
(30271, 29, 4652, 'email-510', 'gangshailesh@gmail.com'),
(30272, 29, 4652, 'tel-299', '8238873931'),
(30273, 29, 4652, 'your-message', 'I m interested in ur services , call me on my cell no.'),
(30274, 29, 4652, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 12:28:32'),
(30275, 29, 4652, 'submit_ip', '150.129.166.149'),
(30276, 1662, 4653, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30277, 1662, 4653, 'your-name', 'Abdul Affar'),
(30278, 1662, 4653, 'your-email', 'abdul.affar@yahoo.com'),
(30279, 1662, 4653, 'tel-309', '00971564918706'),
(30280, 1662, 4653, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 14:23:15'),
(30281, 1662, 4653, 'submit_ip', '86.98.10.216'),
(30282, 29, 4654, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30283, 29, 4654, 'text-604', 'Ashok Kothari'),
(30284, 29, 4654, 'email-510', 'avkcal@gmail.com'),
(30285, 29, 4654, 'tel-299', '9831419062'),
(30286, 29, 4654, 'your-message', 'Interested in CCP pms. '),
(30287, 29, 4654, 'submit_time', '2019-12-28 15:17:14'),
(30288, 29, 4654, 'submit_ip', '115.96.138.70'),
(30289, 29, 4655, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30290, 29, 4655, 'text-604', 'Koushik kumar kundu'),
(30291, 29, 4655, 'email-510', 'kumar.koushik@gmail.com'),
(30292, 29, 4655, 'tel-299', '09002036838'),
(30293, 29, 4655, 'your-message', 'I want to invest, please describe the process .'),
(30294, 29, 4655, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 05:40:47'),
(30295, 29, 4655, 'submit_ip', '47.11.218.47'),
(30296, 28, 4656, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30297, 28, 4656, 'text-996', 'Parampal Singh Dang'),
(30298, 28, 4656, 'email-563', 'redblueenterprises@gmail.com'),
(30299, 28, 4656, 'tel-182', '9592925511'),
(30300, 28, 4656, 'your-message', 'Please contact me as i want to invest in your consistent compounders if minimum investment is 25 lakhs'),
(30301, 28, 4656, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 09:09:46'),
(30302, 28, 4656, 'submit_ip', '42.109.240.96'),
(30303, 29, 4657, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30304, 29, 4657, 'text-604', 'MOHIT DHAWAN'),
(30305, 29, 4657, 'email-510', 'mohitsmailbox@gmail.com'),
(30306, 29, 4657, 'tel-299', '08130256555'),
(30307, 29, 4657, 'your-message', 'Hi team, want to start pms with you and want to understand this product better.\r\n\r\nCan you please call me\r\nRegards\r\nMohit '),
(30308, 29, 4657, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 09:17:18'),
(30309, 29, 4657, 'submit_ip', '106.223.99.51'),
(30310, 29, 4658, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30311, 29, 4658, 'text-604', 'Sanjay Kumar Gupta'),
(30312, 29, 4658, 'email-510', 'sanjay.gupta2916@gmail.com'),
(30313, 29, 4658, 'tel-299', '9871050466'),
(30314, 29, 4658, 'your-message', 'Hi, I would like to know more about your PMS. Can someone call me back anytime after 11 am? '),
(30315, 29, 4658, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 09:54:05'),
(30316, 29, 4658, 'submit_ip', '122.167.177.115'),
(30317, 2456, 4659, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30318, 2456, 4659, 'your-name', 'Sandeep Jain'),
(30319, 2456, 4659, 'your-email', 'sandeeptjain@rediffmail.com'),
(30320, 2456, 4659, 'tel-971', '9427504389'),
(30321, 2456, 4659, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 12:16:13'),
(30322, 2456, 4659, 'submit_ip', '60.254.93.212'),
(30323, 28, 4660, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30324, 28, 4660, 'text-996', 'Sandeep Jain'),
(30325, 28, 4660, 'email-563', 'sandeeptjain@rediffmail.com'),
(30326, 28, 4660, 'tel-182', '9427504389'),
(30327, 28, 4660, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS.'),
(30328, 28, 4660, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 12:22:10'),
(30329, 28, 4660, 'submit_ip', '60.254.93.212'),
(30330, 28, 4661, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30331, 28, 4661, 'text-996', 'RAWLIN SWAMIDASON A'),
(30332, 28, 4661, 'email-563', 'rasigandoc@gmail.com'),
(30333, 28, 4661, 'tel-182', '9940555555'),
(30334, 28, 4661, 'your-message', 'Where is your Chennai office? \r\nI want to know more about your services .\r\n'),
(30335, 28, 4661, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 12:34:12'),
(30336, 28, 4661, 'submit_ip', '182.65.63.123'),
(30337, 29, 4662, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30338, 29, 4662, 'text-604', 'Sivakumar Mutnal'),
(30339, 29, 4662, 'email-510', 'mutnal.shivkumar@gmail.com'),
(30340, 29, 4662, 'tel-299', '+61476797039'),
(30341, 29, 4662, 'your-message', 'I am a doctor working in Australia who recently moved here for work .. Want to invest with you guys as heard a lot from many of my friends.. Need to speak with you guys on this..'),
(30342, 29, 4662, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 12:37:00'),
(30343, 29, 4662, 'submit_ip', '203.21.129.1'),
(30344, 1662, 4663, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30345, 1662, 4663, 'your-name', 'Mohanish Chitnis'),
(30346, 1662, 4663, 'your-email', 'xmohanish@yahoo.com'),
(30347, 1662, 4663, 'tel-309', '+6581063530'),
(30348, 1662, 4663, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 14:37:41'),
(30349, 1662, 4663, 'submit_ip', '116.73.126.21'),
(30350, 28, 4664, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30351, 28, 4664, 'text-996', 'Mohanish Chitnis'),
(30352, 28, 4664, 'email-563', 'xmohanish@yahoo.com'),
(30353, 28, 4664, 'tel-182', '9321485682'),
(30354, 28, 4664, 'your-message', 'Explore Investment'),
(30355, 28, 4664, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 14:45:59'),
(30356, 28, 4664, 'submit_ip', '116.73.126.21'),
(30357, 29, 4665, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30358, 29, 4665, 'text-604', 'Mohanish Chitnis'),
(30359, 29, 4665, 'email-510', 'xmohanish@yahoo.com'),
(30360, 29, 4665, 'tel-299', '9321485682'),
(30361, 29, 4665, 'your-message', 'Explore Investment'),
(30362, 29, 4665, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 14:46:32'),
(30363, 29, 4665, 'submit_ip', '116.73.126.21'),
(30364, 1662, 4666, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30365, 1662, 4666, 'your-name', 'Kanishk Agarwal'),
(30366, 1662, 4666, 'your-email', 'agarwal.kanishk0702@gmail.com'),
(30367, 1662, 4666, 'tel-309', '9414817032'),
(30368, 1662, 4666, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 15:23:15'),
(30369, 1662, 4666, 'submit_ip', '49.32.52.145'),
(30370, 1662, 4667, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30371, 1662, 4667, 'your-name', 'Anand Ramkumar'),
(30372, 1662, 4667, 'your-email', 'ranands@gmail.com'),
(30373, 1662, 4667, 'tel-309', '7397377480'),
(30374, 1662, 4667, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 17:55:31'),
(30375, 1662, 4667, 'submit_ip', '168.149.144.4'),
(30376, 28, 4668, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30377, 28, 4668, 'text-996', 'Karan Singh'),
(30378, 28, 4668, 'email-563', 'kpsingh21@hotmail.com'),
(30379, 28, 4668, 'tel-182', '9779300001'),
(30380, 28, 4668, 'your-message', 'Hi, i am interested to invest in your product, please send me more details including the stock holdings as of date.'),
(30381, 28, 4668, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 17:56:31'),
(30382, 28, 4668, 'submit_ip', '76.71.28.228'),
(30383, 1662, 4669, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30384, 1662, 4669, 'your-name', 'Rakesh Gaggar'),
(30385, 1662, 4669, 'your-email', 'rakeshgaggarngn@gmail.com'),
(30386, 1662, 4669, 'tel-309', '9435160629'),
(30387, 1662, 4669, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 18:45:59'),
(30388, 1662, 4669, 'submit_ip', '42.108.43.14'),
(30389, 1662, 4670, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30390, 1662, 4670, 'your-name', 'Rakesh Gaggar'),
(30391, 1662, 4670, 'your-email', 'rakeshgaggarngn@gmail.com'),
(30392, 1662, 4670, 'tel-309', '9435160629'),
(30393, 1662, 4670, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 18:46:01'),
(30394, 1662, 4670, 'submit_ip', '42.108.43.14'),
(30395, 1662, 4671, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30396, 1662, 4671, 'your-name', 'Viju'),
(30397, 1662, 4671, 'your-email', 'vijukgeorge@gmail.com'),
(30398, 1662, 4671, 'tel-309', '9769378969'),
(30399, 1662, 4671, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 23:53:00'),
(30400, 1662, 4671, 'submit_ip', '1.38.148.35'),
(30401, 1662, 4672, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30402, 1662, 4672, 'your-name', 'Viju'),
(30403, 1662, 4672, 'your-email', 'vijukgeorge@gmail.com'),
(30404, 1662, 4672, 'tel-309', '9769378969'),
(30405, 1662, 4672, 'submit_time', '2019-12-29 23:53:22'),
(30406, 1662, 4672, 'submit_ip', '1.38.148.35'),
(30407, 2456, 4673, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30408, 2456, 4673, 'your-name', 'Marcus.Donahue'),
(30409, 2456, 4673, 'your-email', '2AswuBmyi@gmail.com'),
(30410, 2456, 4673, 'tel-971', '147218963'),
(30411, 2456, 4673, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 05:57:17'),
(30412, 2456, 4673, 'submit_ip', '106.203.144.84'),
(30413, 29, 4674, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30414, 29, 4674, 'text-604', 'Nishant khera'),
(30415, 29, 4674, 'email-510', 'n_khera@yahoo.com'),
(30416, 29, 4674, 'tel-299', '+6581231017'),
(30417, 29, 4674, 'your-message', 'Please have a relationship manager contact me for a PMS Investment.'),
(30418, 29, 4674, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 06:43:43'),
(30419, 29, 4674, 'submit_ip', '111.65.56.62'),
(30420, 29, 4675, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30421, 29, 4675, 'text-604', 'Nishant Khera'),
(30422, 29, 4675, 'email-510', 'n_khera@yahoo.com'),
(30423, 29, 4675, 'tel-299', '+6581231017'),
(30424, 29, 4675, 'your-message', 'Hi, this is Nishant Khera, I am an NRI residing in Singapore. Can you please ask your executive to get in touch regarding the PMS. Also share the draft agreement and when are you increasing the limit from 25lacs to 50 lacs. Kindly contact immediately. \r\n\r\nregards\r\n\r\nNishant'),
(30425, 29, 4675, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 06:44:23'),
(30426, 29, 4675, 'submit_ip', '116.86.18.8'),
(30427, 1662, 4676, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30428, 1662, 4676, 'your-name', 'arun kumar'),
(30429, 1662, 4676, 'your-email', 'ar27arun@gmail.com'),
(30430, 1662, 4676, 'tel-309', '9880001515'),
(30431, 1662, 4676, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 07:19:36'),
(30432, 1662, 4676, 'submit_ip', '182.72.153.250'),
(30433, 29, 4677, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30434, 29, 4677, 'text-604', 'S.Ganesh'),
(30435, 29, 4677, 'email-510', 'ganeshtvt@ymail.com'),
(30436, 29, 4677, 'tel-299', '9840130947'),
(30437, 29, 4677, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nPlease call me regarding investing'),
(30438, 29, 4677, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 07:25:53'),
(30439, 29, 4677, 'submit_ip', '106.198.88.235'),
(30440, 1662, 4678, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30441, 1662, 4678, 'your-name', 'Parag Kotak'),
(30442, 1662, 4678, 'your-email', 'parag_kotak@hotmail.com'),
(30443, 1662, 4678, 'tel-309', '9833505030'),
(30444, 1662, 4678, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 10:06:09'),
(30445, 1662, 4678, 'submit_ip', '113.193.177.34'),
(30446, 29, 4679, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30447, 29, 4679, 'text-604', 'S.Ganesh'),
(30448, 29, 4679, 'email-510', 'ganeshtvt@ymail.com'),
(30449, 29, 4679, 'tel-299', '9840130947'),
(30450, 29, 4679, 'your-message', 'Dear all,\r\n\r\nNo one contacted till now.\r\n\r\nPlease contact on my phone number regarding pms investments'),
(30451, 29, 4679, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 10:17:26'),
(30452, 29, 4679, 'submit_ip', '106.198.88.235'),
(30453, 1662, 4680, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30454, 1662, 4680, 'your-name', 'Darshan Bhatt'),
(30455, 1662, 4680, 'your-email', 'dbhatt.acmiil@Gmail.com'),
(30456, 1662, 4680, 'tel-309', '9769639357'),
(30457, 1662, 4680, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 10:23:06'),
(30458, 1662, 4680, 'submit_ip', '121.243.8.103'),
(30459, 1662, 4681, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30460, 1662, 4681, 'your-name', 'Sudhin'),
(30461, 1662, 4681, 'your-email', 'sudhinchoksey@yahoo.co.in'),
(30462, 1662, 4681, 'tel-309', '9327166699'),
(30463, 1662, 4681, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:00:55'),
(30464, 1662, 4681, 'submit_ip', '210.212.122.82'),
(30465, 29, 4682, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30466, 29, 4682, 'text-604', 'Mohammed Sharif Qureshi'),
(30467, 29, 4682, 'email-510', 'sharifuml@gmail.com'),
(30468, 29, 4682, 'tel-299', '+96896207737'),
(30469, 29, 4682, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nInterested in the PMS schemes subject to more information provided about the whole process and procedures.\r\n\r\nContact me.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nSharif'),
(30470, 29, 4682, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:26:34'),
(30471, 29, 4682, 'submit_ip', '134.0.213.218'),
(30472, 29, 4683, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30473, 29, 4683, 'text-604', 'Bhupinder Nath khera'),
(30474, 29, 4683, 'email-510', 'ubkhera@yahoo.com'),
(30475, 29, 4683, 'tel-299', '9810326949'),
(30476, 29, 4683, 'your-message', 'I want to invest in your PMS.Whst is the minimum amount.kindly answer on phone if possible otherwise send mail'),
(30477, 29, 4683, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:41:23'),
(30478, 29, 4683, 'submit_ip', '106.223.126.219'),
(30479, 29, 4684, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30480, 29, 4684, 'text-604', 'ANANDARAJ'),
(30481, 29, 4684, 'email-510', 'araj_kr@yahoo.com'),
(30482, 29, 4684, 'tel-299', '00971504588347'),
(30483, 29, 4684, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI living in UAE. Is it possible to invest in CCP being in UAE. I hold NRE-PIS account with IDBI. Is it necessary that I should close and open  account in some other bank in order to invest in CCP.   '),
(30484, 29, 4684, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:44:41'),
(30485, 29, 4684, 'submit_ip', '83.110.107.94'),
(30486, 2456, 4685, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30487, 2456, 4685, 'your-name', 'DIPANKAR BHATTACHARYA'),
(30488, 2456, 4685, 'your-email', 'dbhatta80@gmail.com'),
(30489, 2456, 4685, 'tel-971', '09433400978'),
(30490, 2456, 4685, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:54:23'),
(30491, 2456, 4685, 'submit_ip', '157.40.4.40'),
(30492, 1662, 4686, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30493, 1662, 4686, 'your-name', 'DIPANKAR BHATTACHARYA'),
(30494, 1662, 4686, 'your-email', 'dbhatta80@gmail.com'),
(30495, 1662, 4686, 'tel-309', '09433400978'),
(30496, 1662, 4686, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 11:54:48'),
(30497, 1662, 4686, 'submit_ip', '157.40.4.40'),
(30498, 28, 4687, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30499, 28, 4687, 'text-996', 'SHALINI JAIN'),
(30500, 28, 4687, 'email-563', 'sandeeptjain@rediffmail.com'),
(30501, 28, 4687, 'tel-182', '09427504389'),
(30502, 28, 4687, 'your-message', 'I am certified mutual fund advisor having ARN No 46664. I would like to get associated with your company as a distributor of PMS. Kindly email me all details.'),
(30503, 28, 4687, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 12:40:35'),
(30504, 28, 4687, 'submit_ip', '116.73.204.226'),
(30505, 1662, 4688, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30506, 1662, 4688, 'your-name', 'Paresh shah'),
(30507, 1662, 4688, 'your-email', 'pareshshah39@yahoo.in'),
(30508, 1662, 4688, 'tel-309', '9820045066'),
(30509, 1662, 4688, 'submit_time', '2019-12-30 13:02:04'),
(30510, 1662, 4688, 'submit_ip', '103.115.21.5'),
(30511, 1662, 4689, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30512, 1662, 4689, 'your-name', 'Ketan shah'),
(30513, 1662, 4689, 'your-email', 'ketan@nemiket.com'),
(30514, 1662, 4689, 'tel-309', '9825031770'),
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(30547, 29, 4694, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI am based out of Bangalore. I would like to meet your team in  person. Could you please arrange a call back?'),
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(30604, 28, 4703, 'your-message', 'Evaluating to add a PMS into family investment basket.'),
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(30606, 28, 4703, 'submit_ip', '223.191.3.62'),
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(30616, 28, 4705, 'tel-182', '81598538419'),
(30617, 28, 4705, 'your-message', 'Good day!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nDid you know that it is possible to send proposal absolutely legit? \r\nWe suggesting a new method of sending letter through feedback forms. Such forms are located on many sites. \r\nWhen such messages are sent, no personal data is used, and messages are sent to forms specifically designed to receive messages and appeals. \r\nAlso, messages sent through contact Forms do not get into spam because such messages are considered important. \r\nWe offer you to test our service for free. We will send up to 50,000 messages for you. \r\nThe cost of sending one million messages is 49 USD. \r\n \r\nThis letter is created automatically. Please use the contact details below to contact us. \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - feedbackform@make-success.com'),
(30618, 28, 4705, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(30619, 28, 4705, 'submit_time', '2019-12-31 09:52:09'),
(30620, 28, 4705, 'submit_ip', '54.37.238.32'),
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(30622, 29, 4706, 'text-604', 'SATHISH N KAMATH'),
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(30625, 29, 4706, 'your-message', 'inetrested in PMS'),
(30626, 29, 4706, 'submit_time', '2019-12-31 11:58:12'),
(30627, 29, 4706, 'submit_ip', '43.247.157.5'),
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(30629, 29, 4707, 'text-604', 'Lala Mathai'),
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(30631, 29, 4707, 'tel-299', '09841020252'),
(30632, 29, 4707, 'your-message', 'I am in Chennai , do you have an office here OR nearest ?\r\nIf this is a PMS , is minimum investment now 25 or 50 lac ?'),
(30633, 29, 4707, 'submit_time', '2019-12-31 13:03:20'),
(30634, 29, 4707, 'submit_ip', '27.5.233.168'),
(30635, 29, 4708, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30636, 29, 4708, 'text-604', 'SANJEEV KUMAR VIDYASAGAR MAGOO'),
(30637, 29, 4708, 'email-510', 'MAGOOSANJEEV01@GMAIL.COM'),
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(30640, 29, 4708, 'submit_time', '2019-12-31 15:29:24'),
(30641, 29, 4708, 'submit_ip', '49.36.13.236'),
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(30643, 28, 4709, 'text-996', 'Mitesh Udeshi '),
(30644, 28, 4709, 'email-563', 'mitesh_udeshi@hotmail.com'),
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(30646, 28, 4709, 'your-message', 'Please share details of pms scheme. '),
(30647, 28, 4709, 'submit_time', '2019-12-31 18:28:59'),
(30648, 28, 4709, 'submit_ip', '92.97.79.143'),
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(30654, 1662, 4710, 'submit_ip', '123.252.212.190'),
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(30656, 29, 4711, 'text-604', 'Satishnkamath '),
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(30659, 29, 4711, 'your-message', 'Plz call '),
(30660, 29, 4711, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 05:53:57'),
(30661, 29, 4711, 'submit_ip', '182.75.249.198'),
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(30672, 28, 4713, 'your-message', 'What is the procedure to do empanelment as a distributor with you'),
(30673, 28, 4713, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 06:31:59'),
(30674, 28, 4713, 'submit_ip', '122.178.180.49'),
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(30682, 29, 4715, 'text-604', 'Rajiv Didolkar'),
(30683, 29, 4715, 'email-510', 'draj499@yahoo.com'),
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(30685, 29, 4715, 'your-message', 'Wish to invest 25 lakhs in PMS . Please advise all details like past performance and procedure to invest / redeem etc . '),
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(30687, 29, 4715, 'submit_ip', '110.227.220.31'),
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(30696, 29, 4717, 'email-510', '1962spaul@gmail.com'),
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(30698, 29, 4717, 'your-message', 'Interested to know about PMS schemes'),
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(30700, 29, 4717, 'submit_ip', '49.36.15.110'),
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(30714, 1662, 4720, 'your-name', 'Capt Naveen Jalwal'),
(30715, 1662, 4720, 'your-email', 'naveenjalwal1980@gmail.com'),
(30716, 1662, 4720, 'tel-309', '9702017285'),
(30717, 1662, 4720, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 11:50:47'),
(30718, 1662, 4720, 'submit_ip', '49.32.243.90'),
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(30720, 1662, 4721, 'your-name', 'Shirin'),
(30721, 1662, 4721, 'your-email', 'drshirinwadia@gmail.com'),
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(30723, 1662, 4721, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 12:15:59'),
(30724, 1662, 4721, 'submit_ip', '49.33.133.22'),
(30725, 28, 4722, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30726, 28, 4722, 'text-996', 'Raashid Kheruwala'),
(30727, 28, 4722, 'email-563', 'raashid88@gmail.com'),
(30728, 28, 4722, 'tel-182', '+14086801109'),
(30729, 28, 4722, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI came across your fund while researching about investing some money in the Indian markets as an NRI and would like to get in touch in whichever way is preferable. \r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nRaashid Kheruwala'),
(30730, 28, 4722, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 13:28:23'),
(30731, 28, 4722, 'submit_ip', '172.58.27.236'),
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(30733, 29, 4723, 'text-604', 'Rachael G. Richardson'),
(30734, 29, 4723, 'email-510', 'richardson@thelocation3.com'),
(30735, 29, 4723, 'tel-299', '070 0247 0206'),
(30736, 29, 4723, 'your-message', 'Inquiry from Bayside, NY \r\n\r\nHello,\r\n\r\nDo you lack an extra stable income outside of your business or job?\r\n\r\nThelocation3 provides an opportunity that you can earn cash by sharing your opinion.\r\n\r\nNow take 5 minutes to fill out a survey, and you will see that $ 3 or $ 5 is credited to your account: https://www.thelocation3.com/paidsurvey\r\n\r\nCosts Nothing To Join.\r\n\r\nBest Regards,\r\nRachael G. Richardson\r\n\r\n*******************\r\nCompany: Thelocation3\r\nAddress: 210-2 Horace Harding Expy, Bayside, NY 11364, United States\r\n\r\nUnsubscribe: https://www.thelocation3.com/unsubscribe'),
(30737, 29, 4723, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 14:36:56'),
(30738, 29, 4723, 'submit_ip', '49.83.21.56'),
(30739, 2456, 4724, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30740, 2456, 4724, 'your-name', 'Deepak Mishra'),
(30741, 2456, 4724, 'your-email', 'dmishra007@yahoo.com'),
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(30743, 2456, 4724, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 15:47:37'),
(30744, 2456, 4724, 'submit_ip', '157.40.111.106'),
(30745, 2456, 4725, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30746, 2456, 4725, 'your-name', 'Priyanka'),
(30747, 2456, 4725, 'your-email', 'sending2pg@gmail.com'),
(30748, 2456, 4725, 'tel-971', '8777083628'),
(30749, 2456, 4725, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 15:48:00'),
(30750, 2456, 4725, 'submit_ip', '157.40.111.106'),
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(30753, 1662, 4726, 'your-email', 'draj499@yahoo.com'),
(30754, 1662, 4726, 'tel-309', '9823263247'),
(30755, 1662, 4726, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 15:49:44'),
(30756, 1662, 4726, 'submit_ip', '110.227.220.31'),
(30757, 29, 4727, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30758, 29, 4727, 'text-604', 'Jayant Malik'),
(30759, 29, 4727, 'email-510', 'malikjayant@gmail.com'),
(30760, 29, 4727, 'tel-299', '9999306664'),
(30761, 29, 4727, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in PM services offered by your organisation. Kindly contact me to discuss this further.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nJayant '),
(30762, 29, 4727, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 16:35:24'),
(30763, 29, 4727, 'submit_ip', '171.79.76.185'),
(30764, 1662, 4728, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30765, 1662, 4728, 'your-name', 'Adit Gupta'),
(30766, 1662, 4728, 'your-email', 'aditgupta@yahoo.com'),
(30767, 1662, 4728, 'tel-309', '9797519696'),
(30768, 1662, 4728, 'submit_time', '2020-01-01 17:56:07'),
(30769, 1662, 4728, 'submit_ip', '59.98.186.130'),
(30770, 29, 4729, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30771, 29, 4729, 'text-604', 'Priyank'),
(30772, 29, 4729, 'email-510', 'pjohri@yahoo.com'),
(30773, 29, 4729, 'tel-299', '+12147361075'),
(30774, 29, 4729, 'your-message', 'Hello\r\nI am based out of Denver US and interested in investing with your company. \r\n\r\nThanks'),
(30775, 29, 4729, 'submit_time', '2020-01-02 00:58:24'),
(30776, 29, 4729, 'submit_ip', '67.190.47.150'),
(30777, 29, 4730, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30778, 29, 4730, 'text-604', 'Madan'),
(30779, 29, 4730, 'email-510', 'madanhb@gmail.com'),
(30780, 29, 4730, 'tel-299', '+61419884510'),
(30781, 29, 4730, 'your-message', 'Hi Team,\r\n\r\nKeen to know the details of the PMS including the performance. Is the performance portrayed on the website, a weighted average of all clients or just a model client performance? Also, what is the minimum investment?\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nMadan  '),
(30782, 29, 4730, 'submit_time', '2020-01-02 01:14:34'),
(30783, 29, 4730, 'submit_ip', '202.94.72.180'),
(30784, 29, 4731, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30785, 29, 4731, 'text-604', 'Vidhata Kulkarni'),
(30786, 29, 4731, 'email-510', 'vidhata.kulkarni@gmail.com'),
(30787, 29, 4731, 'tel-299', '0064225109989'),
(30788, 29, 4731, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcellus Team,\r\n\r\nI am based in Auckland, New Zealand and keen to know more about your PMS services that you provide. I will be great if you can call me on my mobile  +64225109989. \r\n\r\nThanks &amp; Regards,\r\n\r\nVidhata Kulkarni'),
(30789, 29, 4731, 'submit_time', '2020-01-02 04:41:43'),
(30790, 29, 4731, 'submit_ip', '101.98.138.225'),
(30791, 1662, 4732, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30792, 1662, 4732, 'your-name', 'Vibhor Mishra'),
(30793, 1662, 4732, 'your-email', 'vibhor.mishra@gmail.com'),
(30794, 1662, 4732, 'tel-309', '9900100192'),
(30795, 1662, 4732, 'submit_time', '2020-01-02 04:58:35'),
(30796, 1662, 4732, 'submit_ip', '198.182.52.26'),
(30797, 29, 4733, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30798, 29, 4733, 'text-604', 'Vibhor Mishra'),
(30799, 29, 4733, 'email-510', 'vibhor.mishra@gmail.com'),
(30800, 29, 4733, 'tel-299', '+919900100192'),
(30801, 29, 4733, 'your-message', 'Interested in the PMS'),
(30802, 29, 4733, 'submit_time', '2020-01-02 05:00:18'),
(30803, 29, 4733, 'submit_ip', '198.182.52.26'),
(30804, 29, 4734, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(30805, 29, 4734, 'text-604', 'R.Radhakrishnan'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(31769, 28, 4888, 'your-message', '&lt;a href=https://kiva-hack.ru&gt;&lt;img src=&quot;https://kiva-hack.ru/lite.png&quot;&gt;&lt;/a&gt; \r\nGame version / Версия игры: Русский клиент игры RU \r\nSupported OS / Поддерживаемые ОС: Windows 7 | 8 | 8.1 | 10 \r\n \r\nОписание \r\nТоповый приватный чит от разработчика с многолетним опытом работы в разработке программного обеспечения. Свыше 4х лет его программы работают, регулярно обновляются и постоянно дорабатываются. \r\nПрограмма позволяет смотреть вам сквозь стены на ваших противников, видеть их (cкелет) в любом положении (стоя, сидя, лежа), где бы они ни находились! Плюс к этому, минимальный шанс получить бан в игре. \r\n \r\nПлюсы данного чита: \r\n+Не моргает, не пропадает во время боя \r\n+Работает в полном экране и оконном \r\n+Регулярные обновления \r\n+Минимальный шанс бана \r\n \r\nЦены \r\nНа 1 день - 99 рублей \r\nНа 7 дней - 249 рублей \r\nНа 30 дней - 699 рублей \r\n \r\nСвязаться со мной: \r\nВК: https://vk.cc/8I007a \r\nКУПИТЬ ЧИТ ОНЛАЙН--&gt;: &lt;a href=https://kiva-hack.ru/chity-na-pubg-lite/&gt;чит вх для пубг лайт&lt;/a&gt;\r\n \r\n \r\nВидео обзор: \r\nhttps://youtu.be/oGTEsxGmfWI \r\nhttps://youtu.be/lyj02RS6Sh0'),
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(31802, 28, 4893, 'your-message', 'Hi I am a financial advisor. Interested in knowing about your products and how one can distribute the same. '),
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(31864, 29, 4903, 'your-message', 'Need to invest funds in Aif or pms'),
(31865, 29, 4903, 'submit_time', '2020-01-06 13:02:54'),
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(31871, 28, 4904, 'your-message', 'Hi.\r\nI am keen to discuss investing or Distributor'),
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(31879, 1662, 4905, 'submit_ip', '213.143.137.198'),
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(31884, 28, 4906, 'your-message', 'We at Indusind Bank are exploring possible strategic tie ups  with Portfolio Management Service providers to enhance the product offering for our clients. In this regards, request you to please share the contact details of the concerned person / team to take this further. '),
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(31909, 29, 4910, 'your-message', '1) Is there any lock-in for Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA to remain in the company?\r\n2) What performance reports do you share and what is the periodicity of publication?\r\n3) Considering you have so many CFAs in your team - do you have any plans for implementing GIPS? If so, by when?'),
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(32110, 28, 4942, 'your-message', 'Happy New Year !!! All the best wishes for 2020. \r\n \r\nEver wanting to get more real audience for your marcellus.in ? \r\n \r\nStarting at only 100 usd per month. Comprehensive SEO services for online businesses, websites and institutions. Start getting more visits and customers with our Monthly SEO Plans. \r\n \r\nView more details about our service: \r\nhttps://www.monkeydigital.co/product/monthly-seo-plan/ \r\n \r\nthanks and regards \r\nMike \r\nMonkey Digital \r\nsupport@monkeydigital.co'),
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(32179, 29, 4953, 'your-message', 'Acquiring GOV backlinks is one of the most sought-after link building strategies that’s still popular among SEO experts today.\r\n\r\nAlthough Matt Cutts (the former head of Google search quality team) has said that Google does not give any special importance to .gov domains, seasoned SEO practitioners have proven that powerful backlinks from government websites can improve your website’s overall search visibility.\r\n\r\nMore info:\r\nhttps://www.monkeydigital.io/product/gov-backlinks/\r\n\r\nthanks and regards\r\nMike\r\nmonkeydigital.co@gmail.com\r\n'),
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(32198, 29, 4956, 'your-message', 'Would like to connect with a representative to open a new account. I m based out in US \r\nThanks\r\nK'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(32644, 1662, 5026, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 03:25:51'),
(32645, 1662, 5026, 'submit_ip', '42.106.238.38'),
(32646, 29, 5027, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32647, 29, 5027, 'text-604', 'NAVEEN VENKAT PV'),
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(32650, 29, 5027, 'your-message', 'Looking for a chat on pms'),
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(32659, 28, 5028, 'submit_ip', '116.75.40.173'),
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(32661, 29, 5029, 'text-604', 'Nayan Panchal'),
(32662, 29, 5029, 'email-510', 'nayan.nayan@live.com'),
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(32664, 29, 5029, 'your-message', 'Provide details'),
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(32668, 29, 5030, 'text-604', 'Saurabh sharma'),
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(32671, 29, 5030, 'your-message', 'I want invest in pms'),
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(32675, 29, 5031, 'text-604', 'Yash Potlapalli'),
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(32678, 29, 5031, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in investing in your fund. Can I get additional details to learn more about the offering. I am an NRI (Indian citizen) currently working in United States.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nYash'),
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(32697, 28, 5034, 'your-message', 'I was reading about marcellus consistent compounders and found to be of intrest. I already have one pms with motilal oswal. Would like to know what will be suitable for current market and going ahead. Sitting in loss with mid cap n small cal exposure.'),
(32698, 28, 5034, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 05:11:00'),
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(32729, 29, 5039, 'your-message', 'Want to invest.'),
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(32746, 29, 5042, 'text-604', 'rahul jain'),
(32747, 29, 5042, 'email-510', 'rahul.jain@atomtech.in'),
(32748, 29, 5042, 'tel-299', '9323294551'),
(32749, 29, 5042, 'your-message', 'We are looking for investment from our company side.'),
(32750, 29, 5042, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 06:07:16'),
(32751, 29, 5042, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.105'),
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(32753, 1662, 5043, 'your-name', 'Rajesh Sharma'),
(32754, 1662, 5043, 'your-email', 'rajesh58sharma69@gmail.com'),
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(32757, 1662, 5043, 'submit_ip', '122.170.104.144'),
(32758, 29, 5044, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32759, 29, 5044, 'text-604', 'SOMNATH SUBRAMANIAN IYER'),
(32760, 29, 5044, 'email-510', 'somnath-s@lntecc.com'),
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(32762, 29, 5044, 'your-message', 'Pl email your PMS registration details, forms, terms and charges.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\n\r\nSomnath S'),
(32763, 29, 5044, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 06:23:48'),
(32764, 29, 5044, 'submit_ip', '117.198.102.30'),
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(32775, 29, 5046, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI wanted to inquire regarding investing in your fund.\r\n\r\nBest'),
(32776, 29, 5046, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 07:03:24'),
(32777, 29, 5046, 'submit_ip', '116.72.146.126'),
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(32779, 29, 5047, 'text-604', 'P. C. Chowdhury'),
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(32782, 29, 5047, 'your-message', 'What is the minimum investment for your PMS?  Do you accept existing portfolios  as initial investment?'),
(32783, 29, 5047, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 07:10:48'),
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(32790, 2456, 5048, 'submit_ip', '1.38.202.225'),
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(32800, 1662, 5050, 'tel-309', '8169837307'),
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(32802, 1662, 5050, 'submit_ip', '122.170.104.144'),
(32803, 29, 5051, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(32806, 29, 5051, 'tel-299', '09890907282'),
(32807, 29, 5051, 'your-message', 'Want to know about your PMS service'),
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(32809, 29, 5051, 'submit_ip', '49.35.30.152'),
(32810, 29, 5052, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32811, 29, 5052, 'text-604', 'Roopesh Vakharia'),
(32812, 29, 5052, 'email-510', 'roopeshvakharia@gmail.com'),
(32813, 29, 5052, 'tel-299', '9324711131'),
(32814, 29, 5052, 'your-message', 'Please contact me. I am intrested in your PMS.'),
(32815, 29, 5052, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 08:42:47'),
(32816, 29, 5052, 'submit_ip', '103.235.3.171'),
(32817, 29, 5053, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32818, 29, 5053, 'text-604', 'vinod pandey'),
(32819, 29, 5053, 'email-510', 'vinodpandey14a@gmail.com'),
(32820, 29, 5053, 'tel-299', '+968-99374724'),
(32821, 29, 5053, 'your-message', 'Interested for PMS'),
(32822, 29, 5053, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 09:07:34'),
(32823, 29, 5053, 'submit_ip', '5.21.241.7'),
(32824, 29, 5054, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32825, 29, 5054, 'text-604', 'Dr Alok Rasal '),
(32826, 29, 5054, 'email-510', 'alokrasal@gmail.com'),
(32827, 29, 5054, 'tel-299', '08197751100 '),
(32828, 29, 5054, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS services. '),
(32829, 29, 5054, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 09:16:26'),
(32830, 29, 5054, 'submit_ip', '14.140.215.32'),
(32831, 2456, 5055, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32832, 2456, 5055, 'your-name', 'corey'),
(32833, 2456, 5055, 'your-email', 'cyeap@vakecapital.com'),
(32834, 2456, 5055, 'tel-971', '9294968492'),
(32835, 2456, 5055, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 10:18:14'),
(32836, 2456, 5055, 'submit_ip', '80.83.137.114'),
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(32838, 1662, 5056, 'your-name', 'Dhiraj'),
(32839, 1662, 5056, 'your-email', 'dhirajmistry@gmail.com'),
(32840, 1662, 5056, 'tel-309', '9820114942'),
(32841, 1662, 5056, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 10:45:27'),
(32842, 1662, 5056, 'submit_ip', '49.33.248.75'),
(32843, 1662, 5057, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32844, 1662, 5057, 'your-name', 'Dhiraj Mistry'),
(32845, 1662, 5057, 'your-email', 'dhirajmistry@gmail.com'),
(32846, 1662, 5057, 'tel-309', '9820114941'),
(32847, 1662, 5057, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 10:45:48'),
(32848, 1662, 5057, 'submit_ip', '49.33.248.75'),
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(32850, 1662, 5058, 'your-name', 'Uday'),
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(32852, 1662, 5058, 'tel-309', '9820564898'),
(32853, 1662, 5058, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 11:19:39'),
(32854, 1662, 5058, 'submit_ip', '103.122.200.178'),
(32855, 28, 5059, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32856, 28, 5059, 'text-996', 'Paras Bothra'),
(32857, 28, 5059, 'email-563', 'paras@ashikagroup.com'),
(32858, 28, 5059, 'tel-182', '9820397061'),
(32859, 28, 5059, 'your-message', 'We publish our Ashika Monthly Insight in which we cover CIO Interviews. In this regard I wanted to cover Mr Saurabh Mukherjee in this months Insight and hence wanted time for a Q&amp;A interview with him. It would be great if i can get connected to him for the same. Best Regards'),
(32860, 28, 5059, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 11:33:08'),
(32861, 28, 5059, 'submit_ip', '14.142.39.198'),
(32862, 2456, 5060, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32863, 2456, 5060, 'your-name', 'Randy Norton'),
(32864, 2456, 5060, 'your-email', 'randy@greenmesacapital.com'),
(32865, 2456, 5060, 'tel-971', '7029903359'),
(32866, 2456, 5060, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 11:45:34'),
(32867, 2456, 5060, 'submit_ip', '61.122.36.137'),
(32868, 29, 5061, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32869, 29, 5061, 'text-604', 'Chittaranjan Prabhu'),
(32870, 29, 5061, 'email-510', 'prabhuchittaranjan@gmail.com'),
(32871, 29, 5061, 'tel-299', '9819691265'),
(32872, 29, 5061, 'your-message', 'PMS service enquiry'),
(32873, 29, 5061, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 12:08:45'),
(32874, 29, 5061, 'submit_ip', '202.58.102.194'),
(32875, 1662, 5062, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32876, 1662, 5062, 'your-name', 'Amit'),
(32877, 1662, 5062, 'your-email', 'amit.salunkhepatil@gmail.com'),
(32878, 1662, 5062, 'tel-309', '9021007443'),
(32879, 1662, 5062, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 12:18:40'),
(32880, 1662, 5062, 'submit_ip', '114.143.23.173'),
(32881, 29, 5063, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32882, 29, 5063, 'text-604', 'Gabriel Dib'),
(32883, 29, 5063, 'email-510', 'gabrielwagnerdib@hotmail.com'),
(32884, 29, 5063, 'tel-299', '5551991611026'),
(32885, 29, 5063, 'your-message', 'My calculations are not matching the following article from you:\r\nhttps://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-conventional-dcf-method-undervalues-longevity-of-a-business/\r\nI did a dcf growing 25% for 5 year and then the growth is reduced to 5% for 10 years in stage 2. After that I calculated a perpetuity with 5% terminal growth and a cost of equity of 12%. The result was a 46x fair multiple, while in the article you talk about 24x. Is it not wrong?\r\n'),
(32886, 29, 5063, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 12:22:23'),
(32887, 29, 5063, 'submit_ip', '167.250.30.206'),
(32888, 28, 5064, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32889, 28, 5064, 'text-996', 'Tapan Kumar Datta'),
(32890, 28, 5064, 'email-563', 'tapan.k.datta@gmail.com'),
(32891, 28, 5064, 'tel-182', '+919874733438'),
(32892, 28, 5064, 'your-message', 'Have stocks , mf and ncds which need to re-look.'),
(32893, 28, 5064, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 13:13:26'),
(32894, 28, 5064, 'submit_ip', '42.110.146.164'),
(32895, 2456, 5065, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(32896, 2456, 5065, 'your-name', 'Akanksha jaiswal'),
(32897, 2456, 5065, 'your-email', 'akanksha.jaiswal93@gmail.com'),
(32898, 2456, 5065, 'tel-971', '9930560524'),
(32899, 2456, 5065, 'submit_time', '2020-01-09 13:28:32'),
(32900, 2456, 5065, 'submit_ip', '116.73.234.71'),
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(33368, 29, 5139, 'your-message', 'Hi right now.\r\n\r\nI have come across your service and also was curious if you had an interest in teaming up with influencers?\r\nBeginning  your complimentary three days test!\r\n\r\nWe are an exceptional global influencer system where we can connect brands with influencers and also durable clients. These influencers are matched with your brand thanks to the help of the remarkable advertising and shoutout team we have but you can still write your influencers straight and by utilizing our advanced search, you can make straight offers to the people you wish to represent your brand! We can assist bring your brand name to the following degree.\r\n\r\nLet me know exactly how you really feel regarding our offer! I am anticipating listening to more about our future partnership.\r\n\r\nhttps://daryl.influencermarketing.site/yelhsa\r\n\r\nBest,\r\n\r\nDaisy, Sharrow\r\n\r\nSent from mobile phone, all error self caused.\r\n\r\nIn case that you\'re not fascinated, after that I ask forgiveness and thank you for reading so far.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\ndrop here: daryl.influencermarketing.site/u/n276309760976y\r\n'),
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(33802, 28, 5206, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more about your PMS. I am from Pune. Can you please share your contact details to call'),
(33803, 28, 5206, 'submit_time', '2020-01-14 07:02:55'),
(33804, 28, 5206, 'submit_ip', '122.179.155.82'),
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(33809, 28, 5207, 'your-message', 'Need to invest'),
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(33852, 29, 5214, 'your-message', 'we are interested in your portfolio management services'),
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(33854, 29, 5214, 'submit_ip', '5.32.121.58'),
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(33884, 2456, 5219, 'submit_ip', '27.106.105.216'),
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(33890, 1662, 5220, 'submit_ip', '182.76.213.150'),
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(33892, 29, 5221, 'text-604', 'Vikas Dhawan'),
(33893, 29, 5221, 'email-510', 'vikasdhawa@gmail.com'),
(33894, 29, 5221, 'tel-299', '09900101052'),
(33895, 29, 5221, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI am keen in investing in the PMS and had some queries for which i wanted to have a call with one of the concerned person. Can you connect with someone who can help me understand your overall approach (not just bookish) and some specifics which i have in mind.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nVikas'),
(33896, 29, 5221, 'submit_time', '2020-01-14 12:35:00'),
(33897, 29, 5221, 'submit_ip', '72.163.220.5'),
(33898, 29, 5222, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33899, 29, 5222, 'text-604', 'KUMANAN S'),
(33900, 29, 5222, 'email-510', 'kumanan.pri@gmail.com'),
(33901, 29, 5222, 'tel-299', '9650014520'),
(33902, 29, 5222, 'your-message', 'Contact me please for discussion on my plan'),
(33903, 29, 5222, 'submit_time', '2020-01-14 13:52:08'),
(33904, 29, 5222, 'submit_ip', '117.216.240.60'),
(33905, 29, 5223, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33906, 29, 5223, 'text-604', 'Bhavya Jain'),
(33907, 29, 5223, 'email-510', 'bhavyajain2006@gmail.com'),
(33908, 29, 5223, 'tel-299', '6474107304'),
(33909, 29, 5223, 'your-message', 'Hi, I want to know to minimum investment amount required to invest with PMS.\r\nPlease answer via email as I am based out in Canada'),
(33910, 29, 5223, 'submit_time', '2020-01-14 15:35:27'),
(33911, 29, 5223, 'submit_ip', '72.138.14.250'),
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(33922, 1662, 5224, 'submit_ip', '223.225.35.2'),
(33923, 1662, 5225, 'submit_ip', '223.225.35.2'),
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(33925, 1662, 5226, 'your-name', 'Rahul Sadhwani'),
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(33931, 1662, 5227, 'your-name', 'Deepak Shetty'),
(33932, 1662, 5227, 'your-email', 'deepu39@gmail.com'),
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(33934, 1662, 5227, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 02:04:02'),
(33935, 1662, 5227, 'submit_ip', '49.206.1.108'),
(33936, 29, 5228, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33937, 29, 5228, 'text-604', 'Earlene Peachey'),
(33938, 29, 5228, 'email-510', 'info@marcellus.in'),
(33939, 29, 5228, 'tel-299', ''),
(33940, 29, 5228, 'your-message', 'Hey there.\r\n\r\nIntend to stumble on a proper social networking instagram influencer that one may boost your service and also direct new website visitors to your web site?\r\n\r\nOur social influencer net can certainly link up your shop with more than 77.777 media influencers with loads of niches. Make the most of our amazing search filters also progressed analytics solutions in order to find the most effective influencers for your campaigns.\r\n\r\nYou will get entire easy access to the directory, the possibility that one may contact and discuss along with influencer, including you\'ll have the ability to watch every single media influencer\'s genuinely interaction statistics so you don\'t burn up your opening or your money.\r\n\r\nReady to start our future collaboration?\r\n\r\nhttps://lplk.influencerwork.xyz/o/aXlkzhBY\r\n\r\nOur staff look onward to partnering with marcellus.in!\r\n\r\nBest,\r\n\r\nEarlene, Peachey\r\n\r\n* Brevity and also errors aided and abetted by my beloved apple iphone *.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nto abandon here: //lplk.influencerwork.xyz/link/u/pl3we'),
(33941, 29, 5228, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 03:35:05'),
(33942, 29, 5228, 'submit_ip', '50.31.8.137'),
(33943, 1662, 5229, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33944, 1662, 5229, 'your-name', 'PD'),
(33945, 1662, 5229, 'your-email', 'av.pranay@gmail.com'),
(33946, 1662, 5229, 'tel-309', '9855422335'),
(33947, 1662, 5229, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 06:10:47'),
(33948, 1662, 5229, 'submit_ip', '103.242.120.33'),
(33949, 1662, 5230, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33950, 1662, 5230, 'your-name', 'PD'),
(33951, 1662, 5230, 'your-email', 'av.pranay@gmail.com'),
(33952, 1662, 5230, 'tel-309', '9855422335'),
(33953, 1662, 5230, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 06:11:08'),
(33954, 1662, 5230, 'submit_ip', '103.242.120.33'),
(33955, 29, 5231, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33956, 29, 5231, 'text-604', 'Ashish'),
(33957, 29, 5231, 'email-510', 'itsasinha@gmail.com'),
(33958, 29, 5231, 'tel-299', '9881061430'),
(33959, 29, 5231, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI wanted to inquire about the PMS that you provide. Can someone please call me after 4 PM on any working day?\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nAshish'),
(33960, 29, 5231, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 06:49:40'),
(33961, 29, 5231, 'submit_ip', '141.206.243.10'),
(33962, 29, 5232, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33963, 29, 5232, 'text-604', 'Sandeep'),
(33964, 29, 5232, 'email-510', 'sandeepmalu77@gmail.com'),
(33965, 29, 5232, 'tel-299', '9960148861'),
(33966, 29, 5232, 'your-message', 'want to know about PMS - terms &amp; conditions.'),
(33967, 29, 5232, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 09:43:27'),
(33968, 29, 5232, 'submit_ip', '112.133.220.178'),
(33969, 29, 5233, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33970, 29, 5233, 'text-604', 'Dinanath Thakar'),
(33971, 29, 5233, 'email-510', 'dinanaththakar@gmail.com'),
(33972, 29, 5233, 'tel-299', '+971567883406'),
(33973, 29, 5233, 'your-message', 'interested in investing with Marcellus.'),
(33974, 29, 5233, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 11:07:00'),
(33975, 29, 5233, 'submit_ip', '217.165.20.166'),
(33976, 29, 5234, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33977, 29, 5234, 'text-604', 'Neeraj'),
(33978, 29, 5234, 'email-510', 'neeraj1987@hotmail.com'),
(33979, 29, 5234, 'tel-299', '9820223025'),
(33980, 29, 5234, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more about the product'),
(33981, 29, 5234, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 11:50:33'),
(33982, 29, 5234, 'submit_ip', '114.143.200.114'),
(33983, 28, 5235, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33984, 28, 5235, 'text-996', 'Ashok Malhotra'),
(33985, 28, 5235, 'email-563', 'malhotraakm@gmail.com'),
(33986, 28, 5235, 'tel-182', '9811023220'),
(33987, 28, 5235, 'your-message', 'Please have a person contact me from your Delhi office regarding investment\r\n'),
(33988, 28, 5235, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 14:00:11'),
(33989, 28, 5235, 'submit_ip', '182.64.152.184'),
(33990, 29, 5236, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33991, 29, 5236, 'text-604', 'Dina Ralston'),
(33992, 29, 5236, 'email-510', 'info@marcellus.in'),
(33993, 29, 5236, 'tel-299', ''),
(33994, 29, 5236, 'your-message', '\r\nIntend to seek out a fitting social networking Influencer that one may ensure your business and even direct a lot more clients so as to your online business?\r\n\r\nOur influencer organization can easily network you along with more 69k media influencers around loads of niches. \r\n\r\nYou will get detailed accessibility that one may the listing, the alternative to get in touch with as a consequence discuss with social influencer, furthermore you will have the ability to look at every one social media influencer\'s correct engagement statistics so you will not go to waste your time or your revenue.\r\nPrepared in order to start our future collaboration?\r\n\r\nLearn more: https://q1yu.mailconvert.xyz/o/rCskbXn8\r\n\r\nOur experts look on in order to consulting with marcellus.in!\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\napple iphone. iTypos. iApologize.\r\n\r\nIf you are not interested, then I ask forgiveness and also thanks for reading.\r\n\r\n\r\nrecall here: q1yu.mailconvert.xyz/link/u/3j76n3'),
(33995, 29, 5236, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 15:33:48'),
(33996, 29, 5236, 'submit_ip', '50.31.8.148'),
(33997, 29, 5237, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(33998, 29, 5237, 'text-604', 'Anand'),
(33999, 29, 5237, 'email-510', 'shubhenterprise@gmail.com'),
(34000, 29, 5237, 'tel-299', '09824438490'),
(34001, 29, 5237, 'your-message', 'Are you providing portfolio mgt ?'),
(34002, 29, 5237, 'submit_time', '2020-01-15 17:54:15'),
(34003, 29, 5237, 'submit_ip', '49.34.32.168'),
(34004, 1662, 5238, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34005, 1662, 5238, 'your-name', 'Kailash Baheti'),
(34006, 1662, 5238, 'your-email', 'kbaheti@gmail.com'),
(34007, 1662, 5238, 'tel-309', '+919830060676'),
(34008, 1662, 5238, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 00:44:15'),
(34009, 1662, 5238, 'submit_ip', '42.106.212.141'),
(34010, 28, 5239, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34011, 28, 5239, 'text-996', 'Venugopala Krishna Vemula'),
(34012, 28, 5239, 'email-563', 'venugopv@gmail.com'),
(34013, 28, 5239, 'tel-182', ''),
(34014, 28, 5239, 'your-message', 'Hi, I liked your research and your articles. I have one basic doubt, what is the limit of PMS. is it 25 Lacks or 50 Lacks?  Thanks.'),
(34015, 28, 5239, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 02:23:15'),
(34016, 28, 5239, 'submit_ip', '136.56.62.176'),
(34017, 2456, 5240, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34018, 2456, 5240, 'your-name', 'Venu V'),
(34019, 2456, 5240, 'your-email', 'venugopv@gmail.com'),
(34020, 2456, 5240, 'tel-971', '9168841171'),
(34021, 2456, 5240, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 02:23:53'),
(34022, 2456, 5240, 'submit_ip', '136.56.62.176'),
(34023, 29, 5241, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34024, 29, 5241, 'text-604', 'Satish K Vidwans'),
(34025, 29, 5241, 'email-510', 'satish.vidwans@gmail.com'),
(34026, 29, 5241, 'tel-299', '91-25430578'),
(34027, 29, 5241, 'your-message', 'Kind Attn : Mr Saurabh Mukherjea\r\nDear Sir, I am a follower of your Coffee Can way of investing and I have bought the wealth compounder stocks in my portfolio and got over 2 times Nifty returns in last 1 year and I thank you for the same.\r\nI have read in latest article that you have done a backtest of last 10 years stocks which were included in Nifty 50, have given impressive returns. We common investors dont have access to past data and analysis so can you write a detailed article in your blog on this simple but very powerful observation ? It will help small investors ....if you can share this backtest with me, I would appreciate that and it will be used only for my own investments .\r\n\r\nThanks,Have a great day ahead.\r\n\r\nSatish Vidwans\r\n'),
(34028, 29, 5241, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 02:49:22'),
(34029, 29, 5241, 'submit_ip', '116.74.219.120'),
(34030, 28, 5242, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34031, 28, 5242, 'text-996', 'Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla'),
(34032, 28, 5242, 'email-563', 'sobhesh@gmail.com'),
(34033, 28, 5242, 'tel-182', '9426594926'),
(34034, 28, 5242, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/Madam,\r\nI would like to invest in a PMS scheme with your firm. Would like to know whether the ticket size is 25 lacs or 50 lacs?\r\n\r\nThanks.'),
(34035, 28, 5242, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 04:26:06'),
(34036, 28, 5242, 'submit_ip', '14.139.123.57'),
(34037, 2456, 5243, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34038, 2456, 5243, 'your-name', 'hemant'),
(34039, 2456, 5243, 'your-email', 'hemant.khuman@cyrilshroff.com'),
(34040, 2456, 5243, 'tel-971', '9820008523'),
(34041, 2456, 5243, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 07:11:15'),
(34042, 2456, 5243, 'submit_ip', '115.111.140.7'),
(34043, 29, 5244, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34044, 29, 5244, 'text-604', 'hemant'),
(34045, 29, 5244, 'email-510', 'hemantkhuman@hotmail.com'),
(34046, 29, 5244, 'tel-299', '9820008523'),
(34047, 29, 5244, 'your-message', 'want to know abo pms services'),
(34048, 29, 5244, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 07:12:27'),
(34049, 29, 5244, 'submit_ip', '115.111.140.7'),
(34050, 1662, 5245, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34051, 1662, 5245, 'your-name', 'harshil'),
(34052, 1662, 5245, 'your-email', 'harshildoshi1802@gmail.com'),
(34053, 1662, 5245, 'tel-309', '9773392090'),
(34054, 1662, 5245, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 09:14:34'),
(34055, 1662, 5245, 'submit_ip', '14.142.125.5'),
(34056, 29, 5246, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34057, 29, 5246, 'text-604', 'Winston Barreras'),
(34058, 29, 5246, 'email-510', 'barreras.winston@hotmail.com'),
(34059, 29, 5246, 'tel-299', '0324 6522872'),
(34060, 29, 5246, 'your-message', 'Is your company or organization\'s name secure?\r\n\r\nWith the release by ICANN (Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers) of new top-level domain extensions like .inc, .law, &amp; .shop it is now more important than ever to protect your name and your brand. Your organization\'s traditional dot.COM domain name may be exposed to fraudulent \'phishing\' or \'spoofing\' attacks in which criminals try to fool your customers into thinking they are dealing with a legitimate entity. The time to purchase domains related to your own is now. As the initial registrant, the cost of securing new domain names is very reasonable... Trying to gain control of a domain AFTER someone else registers it can run into the tens of thousands.\r\n\r\nSecure your name, secure your reputation, and secure your brand.\r\n\r\nVisit http://bit.ly/MerchantEngineDomains to register domain extensions related to yours at the lowest possible price. New domain names can be forwarded to your existing website for free, or used in unique marketing campaigns, we are always ready to help. We offer a full range of corporate email, website hosting, and encryption products as well; all through GoDaddy, a name you know you can trust.'),
(34061, 29, 5246, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 09:36:26'),
(34062, 29, 5246, 'submit_ip', '142.112.146.199'),
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(34149, 28, 5260, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more about your PMS product, &quot;Consistent Compounders&quot;.'),
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(34156, 29, 5261, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI would like to know more about your PMS Product.'),
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(34174, 28, 5264, 'tel-182', '3607639285'),
(34175, 28, 5264, 'your-message', 'One rights a book about Bruce. Now he is a philosopher? Hope one day we meet. As i said before. Dedication 10000 hrs. You have no clue. Shaolin Master🙏🐉'),
(34176, 28, 5264, 'submit_time', '2020-01-16 20:22:33'),
(34177, 28, 5264, 'submit_ip', '99.203.109.138'),
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(34179, 29, 5265, 'text-604', 'Anant Pai'),
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(34182, 29, 5265, 'your-message', 'Was interested in the portfolio management services rendered by Marcellus. Can you please forward the details about the services you offer before making a decision. Please feel free to contact me at the above mentioned email id or call at +1 2675744949'),
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(34199, 1662, 5268, 'your-name', 'Milind Kharwandikar'),
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(34205, 29, 5269, 'text-604', 'ABHIJEET KHIALANI'),
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(34208, 29, 5269, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcelues team\r\n\r\nIm a big fan of your investing philosophy.\r\n\r\nMy query is regarding Relaxo footwear..their free cash flows are not that good. Also the directors draw a huge salary from the company..im bit concerned about these two issues..so i am a bit skeptical about investing in this company..what is your take on these points..please let me know if possible..\r\n\r\nIm just a retail investor, to be honest i will actually not be able take a PMS from your firm..\r\n\r\nThanks..'),
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(34210, 29, 5269, 'submit_ip', '49.32.193.55'),
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(34212, 29, 5270, 'text-604', 'Pulkit kejriwal'),
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(34222, 28, 5271, 'your-message', 'What is the process to become a distributor for your products?'),
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(34229, 28, 5272, 'your-message', 'I want to know the process of IFA empanelment'),
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(34248, 28, 5275, 'your-message', 'Would like to be empaneled with Marcellus to market the PMS '),
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(34252, 28, 5276, 'text-996', 'Viren Rajani'),
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(34255, 28, 5276, 'your-message', 'Would like to understand how you invest and the criteria to invest'),
(34256, 28, 5276, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 09:35:33'),
(34257, 28, 5276, 'submit_ip', '182.74.190.60'),
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(34259, 1662, 5277, 'your-name', 'arindam'),
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(34263, 1662, 5277, 'submit_ip', '125.19.2.170'),
(34264, 29, 5278, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34265, 29, 5278, 'text-604', 'Eric Jones'),
(34266, 29, 5278, 'email-510', 'eric@talkwithcustomer.com'),
(34267, 29, 5278, 'tel-299', '416-385-3200'),
(34268, 29, 5278, 'your-message', 'Hello marcellus.in,\r\n\r\nPeople ask, “why does TalkWithCustomer work so well?”\r\n\r\nIt’s simple.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer enables you to connect with a prospective customer at EXACTLY the Perfect Time.\r\n\r\n- NOT one week, two weeks, three weeks after they’ve checked out your website marcellus.in.\r\n- NOT with a form letter style email that looks like it was written by a bot.\r\n- NOT with a robocall that could come at any time out of the blue.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer connects you to that person within seconds of THEM asking to hear from YOU.\r\n\r\nThey kick off the conversation.\r\n\r\nThey take that first step.\r\n\r\nThey ask to hear from you regarding what you have to offer and how it can make their life better. \r\n\r\nAnd it happens almost immediately. In real time. While they’re still looking over your website marcellus.in, trying to make up their mind whether you are right for them.\r\n\r\nWhen you connect with them at that very moment it’s the ultimate in Perfect Timing – as one famous marketer put it, “you’re entering the conversation already going on in their mind.”\r\n\r\nYou can’t find a better opportunity than that.\r\n\r\nAnd you can’t find an easier way to seize that chance than TalkWithCustomer. \r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive and see what a difference “Perfect Timing” can make to your business.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS:  If you’re wondering whether NOW is the perfect time to try TalkWithCustomer, ask yourself this:\r\nWill doing what I’m already doing now produce up to 100X more leads?\r\nBecause those are the kinds of results we know TalkWithCustomer can deliver.  \r\nIt shouldn’t even be a question, especially since it will cost you ZERO to give it a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start your free 14-day test drive today.\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(34284, 2456, 5281, 'your-name', 'Bharat Vakharia'),
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(34293, 1662, 5282, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 12:04:29'),
(34294, 1662, 5282, 'submit_ip', '103.255.114.125'),
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(34296, 1662, 5283, 'your-name', 'Sunil Jethra'),
(34297, 1662, 5283, 'your-email', 'sjethra12@gmail.com'),
(34298, 1662, 5283, 'tel-309', '00971588131679'),
(34299, 1662, 5283, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 12:49:17'),
(34300, 1662, 5283, 'submit_ip', '94.207.59.114'),
(34301, 1662, 5284, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34302, 1662, 5284, 'your-name', 'Shaik Mohammed Ismail '),
(34303, 1662, 5284, 'your-email', 'shaiki4379@gmail.com'),
(34304, 1662, 5284, 'tel-309', '9871435786'),
(34305, 1662, 5284, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 13:09:33'),
(34306, 1662, 5284, 'submit_ip', '103.211.17.45');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(34307, 1662, 5285, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34308, 1662, 5285, 'your-name', 'Subban chettiar DEENATHAYALAN'),
(34309, 1662, 5285, 'your-email', 'deenathayalan10@gmail.com'),
(34310, 1662, 5285, 'tel-309', '9524261652'),
(34311, 1662, 5285, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 13:27:48'),
(34312, 1662, 5285, 'submit_ip', '223.181.197.215'),
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(34314, 1662, 5286, 'your-name', 'Subban chettiar DEENATHAYALAN'),
(34315, 1662, 5286, 'your-email', 'deenathayalan10@gmail.com'),
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(34320, 2456, 5287, 'your-name', 'Subban chettiar DEENATHAYALAN'),
(34321, 2456, 5287, 'your-email', 'deenathayalan10@gmail.com'),
(34322, 2456, 5287, 'tel-971', '9524261652'),
(34323, 2456, 5287, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 13:29:33'),
(34324, 2456, 5287, 'submit_ip', '223.181.197.215'),
(34325, 29, 5288, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34326, 29, 5288, 'text-604', 'Rajmohan'),
(34327, 29, 5288, 'email-510', 'rajmohan70@gmail.com'),
(34328, 29, 5288, 'tel-299', '8610318918'),
(34329, 29, 5288, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI am interested to invest in Little Champs PMS. Pl contact me for account opening.\r\nRegards,\r\nRaj'),
(34330, 29, 5288, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 13:29:47'),
(34331, 29, 5288, 'submit_ip', '157.51.86.234'),
(34332, 29, 5289, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(34333, 29, 5289, 'text-604', 'Ashutosh Bohra'),
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(34335, 29, 5289, 'tel-299', '9870432911'),
(34336, 29, 5289, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\nI have been following your CC PMS from some time now and I would like to invest in it. However, I just found out about the other product - Little Champs. I\'m interested in investing in the small cap space as well. But unlike the CC portfolio, I don\'t know much about the little champs portfolio. I would like to get in touch to understand that better and then start the investment process promptly.\r\nThank you! Awaiting a reply.'),
(34337, 29, 5289, 'submit_time', '2020-01-17 13:34:38'),
(34338, 29, 5289, 'submit_ip', '223.182.184.242'),
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(34340, 28, 5290, 'text-996', 'Arjun R'),
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(34342, 28, 5290, 'tel-182', '9860691410'),
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(34538, 29, 5321, 'your-message', 'I would appreciate your inputs on Little Champs.\r\nAs I am interested in your Little Champs theme.\r\nAwaiting your response \r\n\r\nThanks and Regards '),
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(34618, 28, 5334, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI would like to know more details about small cap PMS.  What will be the minimum investment amount. Also details about fees structure will be helpful.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nManikumar\r\n9840241620'),
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(35198, 29, 5426, 'your-message', 'I am interested in the Small Cap PMS being launched. Please let me know how to understand this better.'),
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(35224, 1662, 5430, 'submit_ip', '63.217.82.140'),
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(35226, 29, 5431, 'text-604', 'Siddhesh Raje'),
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(35230, 29, 5431, 'submit_time', '2020-01-19 14:54:00'),
(35231, 29, 5431, 'submit_ip', '27.60.187.75'),
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(35233, 1662, 5432, 'your-name', 'Poonam Mehta'),
(35234, 1662, 5432, 'your-email', 'poonammehta2006@gmail.com'),
(35235, 1662, 5432, 'tel-309', '9903973869'),
(35236, 1662, 5432, 'submit_time', '2020-01-19 15:24:58'),
(35237, 1662, 5432, 'submit_ip', '175.100.146.19'),
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(35243, 1662, 5433, 'submit_ip', '175.100.146.19'),
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(35245, 28, 5434, 'text-996', 'Prime wealth solutions'),
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(35247, 28, 5434, 'tel-182', '9377068608'),
(35248, 28, 5434, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nWe are a leading distributor in Ahmedabad with AUM of 500 + crore.\r\n\r\nWould like to distribute your products.\r\n\r\nKindly call us on above number.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nDarshak shah'),
(35249, 28, 5434, 'submit_time', '2020-01-19 18:12:44'),
(35250, 28, 5434, 'submit_ip', '112.110.65.118'),
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(35252, 1662, 5435, 'your-name', 'Prateek '),
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(35262, 1662, 5436, 'submit_ip', '1.186.168.43'),
(35263, 28, 5437, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35264, 28, 5437, 'text-996', 'Tanmay'),
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(35266, 28, 5437, 'tel-182', '8696913389'),
(35267, 28, 5437, 'your-message', 'what is the minimum amount required to be invested for investing in your products?'),
(35268, 28, 5437, 'submit_time', '2020-01-19 20:25:33'),
(35269, 28, 5437, 'submit_ip', '165.225.72.104'),
(35270, 29, 5438, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35271, 29, 5438, 'text-604', 'Balamurugan Krishnan'),
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(35592, 28, 5488, 'tel-182', '9373111000'),
(35593, 28, 5488, 'your-message', 'Greetings of the day.\r\n\r\nWith pleasure I would like to introduce myself as Viswanathan V Naidu &amp; my company VIGAMED PRODUCTS PVT LTD. I have work experience of 30 years in the CONDOM industry.\r\n\r\nWe are looking at an investment of around INR 14 Crores for establishing a plant in India for Manufacturing &amp; Sale of Single use Internal Condoms (Female Condoms).\r\n\r\nWe have a great potential in our business with a very decent profit. I will be grateful to your good self if you consider our proposal &amp; partner in our growth.\r\n\r\nOur USP is our unique product, i.e., &quot;Internal Condoms&quot; (Female Condoms). We have over 6 design registrations with Indian Patent Office and applied for 3 design patents each in the USA, South Africa &amp; Brazil. Currently there are only 3 established manufacturers/suppliers for this product in the entire world. \r\n\r\nWe request you to give us a chance to explain this project.\r\n\r\nThanks &amp; Regards,\r\n\r\nViswanathan V Naidu, \r\nVigamed Products Private Limited, \r\n5-B, Shree Avenue Apartment, Kalpataru Nagar, Ashoka Marg, Nashik - 422 011, India. www.vigamed.in\r\nPhone: +91 9373111000'),
(35594, 28, 5488, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 06:20:22'),
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(35597, 1662, 5489, 'your-name', 'Satish bokadia'),
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(35600, 1662, 5489, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 06:21:48'),
(35601, 1662, 5489, 'submit_ip', '49.36.0.112'),
(35602, 29, 5490, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35603, 29, 5490, 'text-604', 'DAYANAND S PAI '),
(35604, 29, 5490, 'email-510', 'adspai@gmail.com'),
(35605, 29, 5490, 'tel-299', '9900911227'),
(35606, 29, 5490, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest about RS 50 lakhs in your fund what\'s the procedure'),
(35607, 29, 5490, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 06:55:01'),
(35608, 29, 5490, 'submit_ip', '106.206.124.127'),
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(35610, 1662, 5491, 'your-name', 'Daljeet Singh Sidhu '),
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(35613, 1662, 5491, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 07:19:30'),
(35614, 1662, 5491, 'submit_ip', '157.39.221.132'),
(35615, 29, 5492, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35616, 29, 5492, 'text-604', 'T MURUGAN'),
(35617, 29, 5492, 'email-510', 'tmurugan555@gmail.com'),
(35618, 29, 5492, 'tel-299', '9003273837'),
(35619, 29, 5492, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in PMS with the option to have standard Portfolio along with cyclicals as said by Saurab in the recent interview. Pl update me further '),
(35620, 29, 5492, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 07:49:39'),
(35621, 29, 5492, 'submit_ip', '182.65.17.183'),
(35622, 1662, 5493, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35623, 1662, 5493, 'your-name', 'S L Ravindranath'),
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(35625, 1662, 5493, 'tel-309', '08317318397'),
(35626, 1662, 5493, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 07:52:23'),
(35627, 1662, 5493, 'submit_ip', '171.76.80.200'),
(35628, 28, 5494, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35629, 28, 5494, 'text-996', 'K r Sai Kumar'),
(35630, 28, 5494, 'email-563', 'krsaikumar@gmail.com'),
(35631, 28, 5494, 'tel-182', '9989320450'),
(35632, 28, 5494, 'your-message', 'Interested in your PMS. I am based in Hyderabad.'),
(35633, 28, 5494, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 08:07:42'),
(35634, 28, 5494, 'submit_ip', '49.37.136.112'),
(35635, 29, 5495, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35636, 29, 5495, 'text-604', 'Ankit vohra '),
(35637, 29, 5495, 'email-510', 'ankit.vohra@outlook.com'),
(35638, 29, 5495, 'tel-299', '917021366356'),
(35639, 29, 5495, 'your-message', 'Hello , I am have a tax status of NRE and wanted to invest in ur PMS. Kindly advice if the minimum investment amount is fixed at 50 lacs or I can also start with 25 lacs and then based on performance add another 25 in a years time. I work on ships and at present on board so phone number won’t be reachable. Request to email. \r\nAlso may I know the portfolio returns and composition having Mukti app/ midcaps or largecaps \r\nRegards \r\nAnkit '),
(35640, 29, 5495, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 08:44:23'),
(35641, 29, 5495, 'submit_ip', '198.211.122.73'),
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(35646, 2456, 5496, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 09:17:32'),
(35647, 2456, 5496, 'submit_ip', '42.106.194.219'),
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(35649, 1662, 5497, 'your-name', 'Ravi Kumar Bansal '),
(35650, 1662, 5497, 'your-email', 'tavibansal1964@gmail.com'),
(35651, 1662, 5497, 'tel-309', '09871071466'),
(35652, 1662, 5497, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 09:38:47'),
(35653, 1662, 5497, 'submit_ip', '122.162.23.28'),
(35654, 2456, 5498, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35655, 2456, 5498, 'your-name', 'Venugopalan Nair'),
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(35657, 2456, 5498, 'tel-971', '9601602133'),
(35658, 2456, 5498, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 09:41:12'),
(35659, 2456, 5498, 'submit_ip', '27.109.7.254'),
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(35661, 1662, 5499, 'your-name', 'Anagha'),
(35662, 1662, 5499, 'your-email', 'anaghaparab98@gmail.com'),
(35663, 1662, 5499, 'tel-309', '7506274787'),
(35664, 1662, 5499, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 09:47:19'),
(35665, 1662, 5499, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.111'),
(35666, 29, 5500, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35667, 29, 5500, 'text-604', 'vivek desai'),
(35668, 29, 5500, 'email-510', 'vivekd25@gmail.com'),
(35669, 29, 5500, 'tel-299', '9920556022'),
(35670, 29, 5500, 'your-message', 'would be interested in the PMS services. i currently have PMS with some other companies and looking at consolidating the same. Please note that i am an NRI.'),
(35671, 29, 5500, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 09:50:26'),
(35672, 29, 5500, 'submit_ip', '202.189.235.254'),
(35673, 28, 5501, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35674, 28, 5501, 'text-996', 'Anand Shah (Ipcon Advisors) '),
(35675, 28, 5501, 'email-563', 'ipcon.advisors@gmail.com'),
(35676, 28, 5501, 'tel-182', '9819288544'),
(35677, 28, 5501, 'your-message', 'Please get in touch urgently as there is requirement for starting new investments.'),
(35678, 28, 5501, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 11:40:23'),
(35679, 28, 5501, 'submit_ip', '27.4.90.162'),
(35680, 2456, 5502, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35681, 2456, 5502, 'your-name', 'Sharad Kumar Mohanka'),
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(35683, 2456, 5502, 'tel-971', '0980 133 1150'),
(35684, 2456, 5502, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 11:48:09'),
(35685, 2456, 5502, 'submit_ip', '47.9.234.157'),
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(35690, 2456, 5503, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:02:01'),
(35691, 2456, 5503, 'submit_ip', '122.176.239.175'),
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(35693, 2456, 5504, 'your-name', 'Shakhin Kadher'),
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(35696, 2456, 5504, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:07:41'),
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(35699, 1662, 5505, 'your-name', 'Shakhin Kadher'),
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(35702, 1662, 5505, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:09:35'),
(35703, 1662, 5505, 'submit_ip', '27.59.210.58'),
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(35705, 2456, 5506, 'your-name', 'Mohit Oswal'),
(35706, 2456, 5506, 'your-email', 'mohitoswal@gmail.com'),
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(35708, 2456, 5506, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:32:27'),
(35709, 2456, 5506, 'submit_ip', '110.225.85.145'),
(35710, 2456, 5507, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35711, 2456, 5507, 'your-name', 'anup pal'),
(35712, 2456, 5507, 'your-email', 'anuppal77@yahoo.com'),
(35713, 2456, 5507, 'tel-971', '9879213100'),
(35714, 2456, 5507, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:44:58'),
(35715, 2456, 5507, 'submit_ip', '106.213.192.228'),
(35716, 28, 5508, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35717, 28, 5508, 'text-996', 'Anup Pal'),
(35718, 28, 5508, 'email-563', 'anup.pal@opportunemoneymanager.com'),
(35719, 28, 5508, 'tel-182', '9879213100'),
(35720, 28, 5508, 'your-message', 'I would like to become a channel partner. Please guide how to take it ahead.'),
(35721, 28, 5508, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 13:46:14'),
(35722, 28, 5508, 'submit_ip', '106.213.192.228'),
(35723, 2456, 5509, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35724, 2456, 5509, 'your-name', 'Singh'),
(35725, 2456, 5509, 'your-email', 'familychandani@yahoo.com'),
(35726, 2456, 5509, 'tel-971', '9271631145'),
(35727, 2456, 5509, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 16:26:41'),
(35728, 2456, 5509, 'submit_ip', '103.81.36.67'),
(35729, 29, 5510, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35730, 29, 5510, 'text-604', 'BHARAT P'),
(35731, 29, 5510, 'email-510', 'BP4976@ICLOUD.COM'),
(35732, 29, 5510, 'tel-299', ''),
(35733, 29, 5510, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI am interested in PMS service, need to know more about it. Please mail.'),
(35734, 29, 5510, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 16:40:22'),
(35735, 29, 5510, 'submit_ip', '37.228.228.152'),
(35736, 2456, 5511, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35737, 2456, 5511, 'your-name', 'MUDITA Das'),
(35738, 2456, 5511, 'your-email', 'mudita13@gmail.com'),
(35739, 2456, 5511, 'tel-971', '9742013734'),
(35740, 2456, 5511, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 17:14:56'),
(35741, 2456, 5511, 'submit_ip', '183.82.16.175'),
(35742, 29, 5512, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35743, 29, 5512, 'text-604', 'Shashank Sharma.'),
(35744, 29, 5512, 'email-510', 'shankyrocks@hotmail.com'),
(35745, 29, 5512, 'tel-299', '8073035567'),
(35746, 29, 5512, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in Little Champs, I’m residing in Bangalore, India Not sure of the eligibility though!'),
(35747, 29, 5512, 'submit_time', '2020-01-21 19:14:24'),
(35748, 29, 5512, 'submit_ip', '49.37.192.100'),
(35749, 2456, 5513, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35750, 2456, 5513, 'your-name', 'Gobinath'),
(35751, 2456, 5513, 'your-email', 'bgnath13@gmail.com'),
(35752, 2456, 5513, 'tel-971', '7550211678'),
(35753, 2456, 5513, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 01:32:57'),
(35754, 2456, 5513, 'submit_ip', '49.207.140.223'),
(35755, 2456, 5514, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35756, 2456, 5514, 'your-name', 'Sachin'),
(35757, 2456, 5514, 'your-email', 'goyal26sachin@gmail.com'),
(35758, 2456, 5514, 'tel-971', '9765490955'),
(35759, 2456, 5514, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 01:37:48'),
(35760, 2456, 5514, 'submit_ip', '122.181.200.65'),
(35761, 29, 5515, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35762, 29, 5515, 'text-604', 'Sandeep Singhvi'),
(35763, 29, 5515, 'email-510', 'sandeep.singhvi@novartis.com'),
(35764, 29, 5515, 'tel-299', '+84914293663'),
(35765, 29, 5515, 'your-message', 'Hi, I’m looking for investment opportunities in your AMC. Kindly let me know whom may I reach out for questions and next steps.\r\n\r\nRegards \r\nSandeep '),
(35766, 29, 5515, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 03:48:22'),
(35767, 29, 5515, 'submit_ip', '113.185.76.95'),
(35768, 29, 5516, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35769, 29, 5516, 'text-604', 'Shastry '),
(35770, 29, 5516, 'email-510', 'crshastry@gmail.com'),
(35771, 29, 5516, 'tel-299', '9986210193'),
(35772, 29, 5516, 'your-message', 'I am from bangalore &amp; interested u r products '),
(35773, 29, 5516, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 04:28:04'),
(35774, 29, 5516, 'submit_ip', '223.186.186.186'),
(35775, 29, 5517, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35776, 29, 5517, 'text-604', 'Subhash Parida'),
(35777, 29, 5517, 'email-510', 'subhash@navnitlal.com'),
(35778, 29, 5517, 'tel-299', '9822049291'),
(35779, 29, 5517, 'your-message', 'Wish to know the details regarding PMS/Advisory Services offered.'),
(35780, 29, 5517, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 04:41:03'),
(35781, 29, 5517, 'submit_ip', '59.94.208.250'),
(35782, 28, 5518, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35783, 28, 5518, 'text-996', 'sunil gupta'),
(35784, 28, 5518, 'email-563', 'sunilgupta78@yahoo.com'),
(35785, 28, 5518, 'tel-182', '9892002102'),
(35786, 28, 5518, 'your-message', 'Need to understand can we become partners with you as we are wealth Managers in Navi Mumbai.\r\n\r\n'),
(35787, 28, 5518, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 04:41:22'),
(35788, 28, 5518, 'submit_ip', '114.79.132.227'),
(35789, 2456, 5519, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35790, 2456, 5519, 'your-name', 'Harmendra '),
(35791, 2456, 5519, 'your-email', 'harmendra@gmail.com'),
(35792, 2456, 5519, 'tel-971', '9820225303'),
(35793, 2456, 5519, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 05:10:37'),
(35794, 2456, 5519, 'submit_ip', '1.39.154.156'),
(35795, 29, 5520, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35796, 29, 5520, 'text-604', 'sudheer'),
(35797, 29, 5520, 'email-510', 'sudheer1008@rediffmail.com'),
(35798, 29, 5520, 'tel-299', '+966502435420'),
(35799, 29, 5520, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in CCP PMS and know the formalities for a NRI to proceed with.'),
(35800, 29, 5520, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 07:06:37'),
(35801, 29, 5520, 'submit_ip', '213.210.249.35'),
(35802, 29, 5521, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35803, 29, 5521, 'text-604', 'Pratik'),
(35804, 29, 5521, 'email-510', 'pratik0509@gmail.com'),
(35805, 29, 5521, 'tel-299', '9810412498'),
(35806, 29, 5521, 'your-message', 'Hi, can you please share more details on the small cap fund - investing philosophy, coverage area, track record, fee structure and minimum captial for investment etc. \r\n'),
(35807, 29, 5521, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 08:01:22'),
(35808, 29, 5521, 'submit_ip', '217.165.49.143'),
(35809, 28, 5522, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35810, 28, 5522, 'text-996', 'Dipankar Ghosh'),
(35811, 28, 5522, 'email-563', 'dipankarin2001@yahoo.co.in'),
(35812, 28, 5522, 'tel-182', '+971504199607'),
(35813, 28, 5522, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS'),
(35814, 28, 5522, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 08:11:06'),
(35815, 28, 5522, 'submit_ip', '80.84.146.249'),
(35816, 29, 5523, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35817, 29, 5523, 'text-604', 'Dipankar Ghosh'),
(35818, 29, 5523, 'email-510', 'dipankarin2001@yahoo.co.in'),
(35819, 29, 5523, 'tel-299', '+971504199607'),
(35820, 29, 5523, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS'),
(35821, 29, 5523, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 08:12:02'),
(35822, 29, 5523, 'submit_ip', '80.84.146.249'),
(35823, 29, 5524, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35824, 29, 5524, 'text-604', 'v lakshmi narasimhan'),
(35825, 29, 5524, 'email-510', 'vlak2609@gmail.com'),
(35826, 29, 5524, 'tel-299', '07738423456'),
(35827, 29, 5524, 'your-message', 'I seek to become an Investor with Marcellus. Request advice on the process etc. '),
(35828, 29, 5524, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 08:15:33'),
(35829, 29, 5524, 'submit_ip', '210.18.187.196'),
(35830, 1662, 5525, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35831, 1662, 5525, 'your-name', 'Shashwat'),
(35832, 1662, 5525, 'your-email', 'shashwatbajpai91@gmail.com'),
(35833, 1662, 5525, 'tel-309', '8652329555'),
(35834, 1662, 5525, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 08:32:27'),
(35835, 1662, 5525, 'submit_ip', '115.112.79.234'),
(35836, 29, 5526, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35837, 29, 5526, 'text-604', 'BHARAT VALHARIYA'),
(35838, 29, 5526, 'email-510', 'BHARAT.VAKHARIA@SINTEX.CO.IN'),
(35839, 29, 5526, 'tel-299', '9687667162'),
(35840, 29, 5526, 'your-message', 'i WANT TO INVEST , PLEASE CALL ME'),
(35841, 29, 5526, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 09:03:40'),
(35842, 29, 5526, 'submit_ip', '103.85.79.4'),
(35843, 1662, 5527, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35844, 1662, 5527, 'your-name', 'shiva'),
(35845, 1662, 5527, 'your-email', 'shiva.prasad@s2ar.com'),
(35846, 1662, 5527, 'tel-309', '9790753401'),
(35847, 1662, 5527, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 09:22:08'),
(35848, 1662, 5527, 'submit_ip', '106.51.2.169'),
(35849, 29, 5528, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35850, 29, 5528, 'text-604', 'Kaushal Sahakari '),
(35851, 29, 5528, 'email-510', 'kaushalsahakarigoa@gmail.com'),
(35852, 29, 5528, 'tel-299', '9823068599'),
(35853, 29, 5528, 'your-message', 'I would like to know about the plans for investments '),
(35854, 29, 5528, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 10:18:17'),
(35855, 29, 5528, 'submit_ip', '49.35.44.31'),
(35856, 28, 5529, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35857, 28, 5529, 'text-996', 'P SHAKTHIVEL'),
(35858, 28, 5529, 'email-563', 'SHAKTHI.SIBI1578@GMAIL.COM'),
(35859, 28, 5529, 'tel-182', '9940911773'),
(35860, 28, 5529, 'your-message', 'As I am a financial adviser kindly contact for business details .'),
(35861, 28, 5529, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 10:43:52'),
(35862, 28, 5529, 'submit_ip', '115.112.78.142'),
(35863, 1662, 5530, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(35866, 1662, 5530, 'tel-309', '9611806180'),
(35867, 1662, 5530, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 10:49:28'),
(35868, 1662, 5530, 'submit_ip', '121.242.121.131'),
(35869, 29, 5531, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35870, 29, 5531, 'text-604', 'T Banerjee'),
(35871, 29, 5531, 'email-510', 'twish77@yahoo.com'),
(35872, 29, 5531, 'tel-299', '7702338016'),
(35873, 29, 5531, 'your-message', 'Can two unrelated people come together and open one consistent compounder fund?'),
(35874, 29, 5531, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 12:26:12'),
(35875, 29, 5531, 'submit_ip', '116.50.85.173'),
(35876, 2456, 5532, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35877, 2456, 5532, 'your-name', 'Archit saraf'),
(35878, 2456, 5532, 'your-email', 'archit25@yahoo.com'),
(35879, 2456, 5532, 'tel-971', '9650647666'),
(35880, 2456, 5532, 'submit_time', '2020-01-22 13:25:59'),
(35881, 2456, 5532, 'submit_ip', '171.79.45.40'),
(35882, 29, 5533, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(35883, 29, 5533, 'text-604', 'Akbar Hussain'),
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(37379, 29, 5773, 'your-message', '\r\nHi,\r\n\r\nYou know it’s true…\r\n\r\nYour competition just can’t hold a candle to the way you DELIVER real solutions to your customers on your website marcellus.in.\r\n\r\nBut it’s a shame when good people who need what you have to offer wind up settling for second best or even worse.\r\n\r\nNot only do they deserve better, you deserve to be at the top of their list.\r\n \r\nTalkWithCustomer can reliably turn your website marcellus.in into a serious, lead generating machine.\r\n\r\nWith TalkWithCustomer installed on your site, visitors can either call you immediately or schedule a call for you in the future.\r\n \r\nAnd the difference to your business can be staggering – up to 100X more leads could be yours, just by giving TalkWithCustomer a FREE 14 Day Test Drive.\r\n \r\nThere’s absolutely NO risk to you, so CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to sign up for this free test drive now.  \r\n\r\nTons more leads? You deserve it.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\nPS:  Odds are, you won’t have long to wait before seeing results:\r\nThis service makes an immediate difference in getting people on the phone right away before they have a chance to turn around and surf off to a competitor\'s website. D Traylor, Traylor Law  \r\nWhy wait any longer?  \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to take the FREE 14-Day Test Drive and start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n\r\n'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(37966, 29, 5866, 'your-message', ' \r\nHey,\r\n\r\nYou have a website marcellus.in, right?\r\n\r\nOf course you do. I am looking at your website now.\r\n\r\nIt gets traffic every day – that you’re probably spending $2 / $4 / $10 or more a click to get.  Not including all of the work you put into creating social media, videos, blog posts, emails, and so on.\r\n\r\nSo you’re investing seriously in getting people to that site.\r\n\r\nBut how’s it working?  Great? Okay?  Not so much?\r\n\r\nIf that answer could be better, then it’s likely you’re putting a lot of time, effort, and money into an approach that’s not paying off like it should.\r\n\r\nNow… imagine doubling your lead conversion in just minutes… In fact, I’ll go even better.\r\n \r\nYou could actually get up to 100X more conversions!\r\n\r\nI’m not making this up.  As Chris Smith, best-selling author of The Conversion Code says: Speed is essential - there is a 100x decrease in Leads when a Lead is contacted within 14 minutes vs being contacted within 5 minutes.\r\n\r\nHe’s backed up by a study at MIT that found the odds of contacting a lead will increase by 100 times if attempted in 5 minutes or less.\r\n\r\nAgain, out of the 100s of visitors to your website, how many actually call to become clients?\r\n\r\nWell, you can significantly increase the number of calls you get – with ZERO extra effort.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer makes it easy, simple, and fast – in fact, you can start getting more calls today… and at absolutely no charge to you.\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive to find out how.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS: Don’t just take my word for it, TalkWithCustomer works:\r\nEMA has been looking for ways to reach out to an audience. TalkWithCustomer so far is the most direct call of action. It has produced above average closing ratios and we are thrilled. Thank you for providing a real and effective tool to generate REAL leads. - P MontesDeOca.\r\nBest of all, act now to get a no-cost 14-Day Test Drive – our gift to you just for giving TalkWithCustomer a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n\r\n'),
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(40335, 29, 6247, 'your-message', 'I am a US based investor and looking to invest in your fund. What is the minimum required investment amount ?'),
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(40368, 29, 6252, 'your-message', 'I\'d sent in a request earlier this week. Unfortunately, I got no revert from your team. Could the sales team contact me asap.'),
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(40375, 29, 6253, 'your-message', 'I hold some equities (total valuation about Rs 48 lac) which is more or less stagnant. I want to know more about your services for deciding on investment.'),
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(40406, 29, 6258, 'your-message', 'Hi, I\'d be keen to invest through you and would like to understand how much capital is the minimum that you folks work with. Thanks'),
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(40466, 28, 6267, 'your-message', 'want to become your distributor. kindly contact me. '),
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(40479, 29, 6269, 'your-message', 'I am living in Vadodara,Gujarat. I want to enroll in your PMS scheme.Kindly give me information about it.'),
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(40486, 29, 6270, 'your-message', 'Please let me know any plan for small investors.'),
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(41271, 28, 6392, 'your-message', 'Hi, this is Raja and I am 50. Wish to understand investment options with moderate to low risk. This is to create a fund that could give a steady 10-12% return. Investment horizon 3 -5 years'),
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(41285, 28, 6394, 'your-message', 'Myself an NRI based in TAIWAN am intrested in PMS with Min 50L investment to begin with.\r\nPlease Get in Touch to Discuss further.'),
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(41299, 29, 6396, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more'),
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(41312, 29, 6398, 'your-message', 'Please contact me or send your distributor.Thanks.'),
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(41428, 29, 6416, 'text-604', 'C trivikrama raju '),
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(41771, 29, 6468, 'your-message', 'how to of investing thru marcellus investments'),
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(41773, 29, 6468, 'submit_ip', '27.5.150.50'),
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(41775, 29, 6469, 'text-604', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
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(41778, 29, 6469, 'your-message', 'Dear Saurabh\r\nI am a die hard fan....cant tell you how much I trust every word you speak over the net or on the screen. There is practically no article of yours that I dont read. I spoke to Pooja in your office. I dont know whether I will ever be getting a chance to speak to you or meet you but would like to stay associated with your ideas forever. I have made a request to Pooja. Request you to as a special case, accede to my request.\r\nWarmest Regards\r\nVineet Wadhwani\r\n9818884888'),
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(41800, 29, 6473, 'text-604', 'Ataulla Fareed Pasha'),
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(41803, 29, 6473, 'your-message', 'Hi team. I would like to know about your services. Please call me back share the details. I would want to know what is the minimum amount i need to invest, what do you charge me and what are the expected returns?'),
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(41805, 29, 6473, 'submit_ip', '168.159.160.205'),
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(41807, 29, 6474, 'text-604', 'Haneez,'),
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(41810, 29, 6474, 'your-message', 'Call me'),
(41811, 29, 6474, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 09:08:20'),
(41812, 29, 6474, 'submit_ip', '1.39.78.56'),
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(41814, 28, 6475, 'text-996', 'AMARJEET SAHNI'),
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(41817, 28, 6475, 'your-message', 'I want to take advice for investment.'),
(41818, 28, 6475, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 09:20:49'),
(41819, 28, 6475, 'submit_ip', '117.204.216.14'),
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(41821, 28, 6476, 'text-996', 'S Iyer'),
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(41824, 28, 6476, 'your-message', 'Pl email the registration documentation and fee structure for your flagship PMS product at the earliest. Thanks'),
(41825, 28, 6476, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 09:22:48'),
(41826, 28, 6476, 'submit_ip', '117.198.102.30'),
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(41831, 29, 6477, 'your-message', 'Pl email the documentation and fee structure of your flagship PMS product at the earliest. I am keen to be invest in your PMS product.\r\n\r\nThanks.'),
(41832, 29, 6477, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 09:24:04'),
(41833, 29, 6477, 'submit_ip', '117.198.102.30'),
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(41835, 29, 6478, 'text-604', 'Kapil Kathuria'),
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(41838, 29, 6478, 'your-message', 'I would like to meet and understand investment process, and see if it is suitable for me.'),
(41839, 29, 6478, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 09:25:59'),
(41840, 29, 6478, 'submit_ip', '203.207.62.38'),
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(41846, 2456, 6479, 'submit_ip', '223.179.244.78'),
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(41848, 29, 6480, 'text-604', 'Puneet Raina'),
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(41851, 29, 6480, 'your-message', 'Hi -I am interested to investing with you for long term - 10+ years.\r\nPlease help me with the details.\r\n\r\nI work with Bank of America and based out of Hyderabad.\r\nPuneet'),
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(41853, 29, 6480, 'submit_ip', '171.161.48.16'),
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(41855, 29, 6481, 'text-604', 'Vijay Ladke'),
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(41862, 29, 6482, 'text-604', 'Vijay Ladkd'),
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(41869, 29, 6483, 'text-604', 'P Chaurasia '),
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(41874, 29, 6483, 'submit_ip', '42.108.162.19'),
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(41876, 29, 6484, 'text-604', 'P Chaurasia '),
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(41881, 29, 6484, 'submit_ip', '42.108.162.19'),
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(41883, 29, 6485, 'text-604', 'P Chaurasia '),
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(41885, 29, 6485, 'tel-299', '9868122010'),
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(41888, 29, 6485, 'submit_ip', '42.108.162.19'),
(41889, 29, 6486, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(41890, 29, 6486, 'text-604', 'P Chaurasia '),
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(41895, 29, 6486, 'submit_ip', '42.108.162.19'),
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(41903, 29, 6488, 'text-604', 'Navnit Jogi'),
(41904, 29, 6488, 'email-510', 'navnitj@gmail.com'),
(41905, 29, 6488, 'tel-299', '9898433544'),
(41906, 29, 6488, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS services. Please call me  '),
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(41908, 29, 6488, 'submit_ip', '49.34.94.151'),
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(41926, 2456, 6491, 'submit_ip', '182.69.3.166'),
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(41932, 1662, 6492, 'submit_ip', '27.57.54.19'),
(41933, 29, 6493, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(41934, 29, 6493, 'text-604', 'Harjit Singh Bhatia'),
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(41937, 29, 6493, 'your-message', 'What is the process to invest in your portfolios'),
(41938, 29, 6493, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 11:13:26'),
(41939, 29, 6493, 'submit_ip', '45.127.46.108'),
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(41946, 1662, 6494, 'submit_ip', '5.188.84.130'),
(41947, 2456, 6495, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(41952, 2456, 6495, 'submit_ip', '203.127.73.222'),
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(41954, 29, 6496, 'text-604', 'Vineet Wadhwani'),
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(41956, 29, 6496, 'tel-299', '09818884888'),
(41957, 29, 6496, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurabh\r\nWas waiting to deploy another 25 lacs and was hoping I could do it in Little Champs.\r\nUnfortunately I don\'t have more funds today but will go on investing with Marcellus everytime I get more funds. I am probably not as rich as your other clients but amongst your admirers I would be the amongst the front runners. Please don\'t let me down. Pooja has told me it\'s not possible and I should move on. I have given it my best shot with her but failed to cut any ice. She\'s really tough. I really wish you would take me on board. I will wait for a week with these funds and then if there is nothing heard from you I will move on ... with sadness ... Hope I get to hear from you. Warmly - Vineet '),
(41958, 29, 6496, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 11:18:02'),
(41959, 29, 6496, 'submit_ip', '182.69.66.151'),
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(41961, 29, 6497, 'text-604', 'Ajay Agarwal'),
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(41963, 29, 6497, 'tel-299', '8000511511'),
(41964, 29, 6497, 'your-message', 'Please provide more information about how we can invest with you.'),
(41965, 29, 6497, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 11:44:22'),
(41966, 29, 6497, 'submit_ip', '27.57.187.124'),
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(41968, 29, 6498, 'text-604', 'Veerendra'),
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(41971, 29, 6498, 'your-message', 'Want to invest in through SIP'),
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(41973, 29, 6498, 'submit_ip', '47.247.41.142'),
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(41975, 29, 6499, 'text-604', 'Sandeep Sharma'),
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(41979, 29, 6499, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 11:46:51'),
(41980, 29, 6499, 'submit_ip', '42.108.172.254'),
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(41982, 29, 6500, 'text-604', 'David de Sousa'),
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(41985, 29, 6500, 'your-message', 'What is the minimum investment'),
(41986, 29, 6500, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 11:48:14'),
(41987, 29, 6500, 'submit_ip', '103.67.178.142'),
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(41992, 1662, 6501, 'submit', 'Send'),
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(41994, 1662, 6501, 'submit_ip', '5.188.210.81'),
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(41996, 29, 6502, 'text-604', 'Raghavendra y h'),
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(42000, 29, 6502, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 12:08:36'),
(42001, 29, 6502, 'submit_ip', '223.237.207.160'),
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(42003, 28, 6503, 'text-996', 'NIraj deo'),
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(42006, 28, 6503, 'your-message', 'Investment'),
(42007, 28, 6503, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 12:20:54'),
(42008, 28, 6503, 'submit_ip', '27.61.193.189'),
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(42013, 1662, 6504, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 13:05:35'),
(42014, 1662, 6504, 'submit_ip', '112.79.77.99'),
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(42016, 29, 6505, 'text-604', 'Nosher Adil Habib '),
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(42019, 29, 6505, 'your-message', 'Dear respected Sir/Madam, \r\n\r\nI\'m a property investor and landlord based in London, United Kingdom. \r\n\r\nI\'ve seen an article on the news, exploring the investment success of your company in the last year.\r\n\r\nI\'m new to share and stock investment and would like to discuss what options you could offer me as a potential new client and investor.\r\n\r\nI look forward to hearing from you soon. \r\n\r\nThank you &amp; kind regards, \r\nNosher Habib. '),
(42020, 29, 6505, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 13:14:43'),
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(42027, 2456, 6506, 'submit_ip', '106.209.168.42'),
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(42029, 29, 6507, 'text-604', 'Rajib'),
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(42033, 29, 6507, 'submit_time', '2020-02-06 13:49:54'),
(42034, 29, 6507, 'submit_ip', '103.139.243.38'),
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(42041, 28, 6508, 'submit_ip', '110.225.90.7'),
(42042, 2456, 6509, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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(42556, 28, 6587, 'your-message', 'Dear concerned,\r\nWe want to get empanelled with you as we are based in Ludhiana.\r\nKindly provide the contact details of the concerned person and send us the forms for the empanelment.\r\n\r\nThanks &amp; Regards\r\nTeam Truvisory\r\n9888644403\r\n(Gaganpreet Singh)'),
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(42669, 29, 6605, 'text-604', 'Tuhin Ghosal '),
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(42672, 29, 6605, 'your-message', 'Would like to invest in AIF , pls give your pertinent information and details of your strategy,. I stay in kolkata also want to know have you got any AMC here in kolkata '),
(42673, 29, 6605, 'submit_time', '2020-02-08 01:59:48'),
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(42676, 29, 6606, 'text-604', 'Aurobindo Mittra'),
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(42679, 29, 6606, 'your-message', 'I want to invest with Marcellus.'),
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(42683, 28, 6607, 'text-996', 'Rashmi khera'),
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(42686, 28, 6607, 'your-message', 'Want to start PM\'s.'),
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(42700, 29, 6609, 'your-message', 'Want to invest 1 cr with you. Kindly share details '),
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(42740, 29, 6615, 'your-message', 'Hi Team, \r\nLooking to invest in the mutual fund and wanted to understand the procedure to get started in the fund.\r\n\r\nThank you.\r\n'),
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(42771, 29, 6620, 'your-message', 'I might be travelling abroad for work within next 2 months. although it depends on visa. Do you have anything for me or NRI people.  Give me a call I want to know some details please....\r\nYou can also send me an email with your plans for indian residents abroad or NRI\'s.\r\nThanks\r\n'),
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(43587, 29, 6749, 'text-604', 'Siva Rama Krishna Mannem'),
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(43590, 29, 6749, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI would like to invest in little champs. Please let me know the procedure to open the account. Also, I did not understand the fee structure well. Can you please explain considering an CAGR of 24%, what would be the charges? '),
(43591, 29, 6749, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 01:53:02'),
(43592, 29, 6749, 'submit_ip', '106.51.28.140'),
(43593, 29, 6750, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43594, 29, 6750, 'text-604', 'RAJAT BANIK'),
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(43596, 29, 6750, 'tel-299', '9831679917'),
(43597, 29, 6750, 'your-message', 'Am looking for a PMS Entry. \r\n1) What is Ticket Size\r\n2) Can I get details on your Monthly returns'),
(43598, 29, 6750, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 03:03:06'),
(43599, 29, 6750, 'submit_ip', '182.66.30.43'),
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(43607, 29, 6752, 'text-604', 'Vijay Sood'),
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(43609, 29, 6752, 'tel-299', '9717009800'),
(43610, 29, 6752, 'your-message', 'I would like to know a little more about recently launched scheme &quot;little champs&quot; . Kindly contact me at 9717009800. I am based out of NCR.'),
(43611, 29, 6752, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 04:33:02'),
(43612, 29, 6752, 'submit_ip', '163.53.214.193'),
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(43614, 29, 6753, 'text-604', 'Amruta Deo'),
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(43617, 29, 6753, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am a salaried individual who is looking for sustainable with better ROI investment options.\r\nThanks!'),
(43618, 29, 6753, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 06:28:33'),
(43619, 29, 6753, 'submit_ip', '121.240.64.149'),
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(43621, 28, 6754, 'text-996', 'enrich financial solutions'),
(43622, 28, 6754, 'email-563', 'venkatkrishnan@enrichbroking.com'),
(43623, 28, 6754, 'tel-182', '7806805449'),
(43624, 28, 6754, 'your-message', 'Hi interested in distributing the marcellus pms contact us '),
(43625, 28, 6754, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 07:06:41'),
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(43634, 28, 6756, 'text-996', 'Geraldhat'),
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(43637, 28, 6756, 'your-message', 'Hello! \r\nIf you are a start-up – this offer is for you. \r\nWhat are we offering: Big part of real human traffic are redirected to you website as Organic traffic. It helps you increase Google SERP positions which will get you real organic traffic and clients you need. \r\nFrom $20 per month - 500 daily traffic for 30 days, total of 15,000 visitors! \r\n•	Possible to get sales or leads \r\n•	Increase SERP (Get higher on Google) \r\n•	Increase Alexa rank, good for SEO \r\n•	Lower your bounce rate, increase duration time.. \r\nCheck it out for your-self at: https://wetraffi.com \r\nGet 20% discount for the first order with discount code: WE2020.'),
(43638, 28, 6756, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(43639, 28, 6756, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 08:46:31'),
(43640, 28, 6756, 'submit_ip', '84.17.47.10'),
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(43642, 29, 6757, 'text-604', 'Sudarsan Parida'),
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(43645, 29, 6757, 'your-message', 'Looking for investing in little champs'),
(43646, 29, 6757, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 08:57:25'),
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(43648, 29, 6758, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43649, 29, 6758, 'text-604', 'KARAN JARIWALA'),
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(43651, 29, 6758, 'tel-299', '9975094913'),
(43652, 29, 6758, 'your-message', 'I am interested in subscribing to your PMS service. Request you to share the details. '),
(43653, 29, 6758, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 09:53:13'),
(43654, 29, 6758, 'submit_ip', '72.163.220.10'),
(43655, 29, 6759, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43656, 29, 6759, 'text-604', 'Raunak Sharma'),
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(43658, 29, 6759, 'tel-299', '033-40660335'),
(43659, 29, 6759, 'your-message', 'Please give us a call back as we want to invest in your PMS.'),
(43660, 29, 6759, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 10:28:46'),
(43661, 29, 6759, 'submit_ip', '110.227.81.195'),
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(43663, 29, 6760, 'text-604', 'Rohan Talwar'),
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(43666, 29, 6760, 'your-message', 'Looking for PMS '),
(43667, 29, 6760, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 11:42:55'),
(43668, 29, 6760, 'submit_ip', '14.141.199.166'),
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(43682, 1662, 6763, 'your-name', 'Kangeyan V M'),
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(43686, 1662, 6763, 'submit_ip', '125.17.105.98'),
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(43688, 29, 6764, 'text-604', 'Vinay Jain'),
(43689, 29, 6764, 'email-510', 'veenay55@gmail.com'),
(43690, 29, 6764, 'tel-299', '7303113400'),
(43691, 29, 6764, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS'),
(43692, 29, 6764, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 16:07:14'),
(43693, 29, 6764, 'submit_ip', '103.130.189.8'),
(43694, 2456, 6765, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43695, 2456, 6765, 'your-name', 'Digvijay Tanwar'),
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(43698, 2456, 6765, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 16:40:23'),
(43699, 2456, 6765, 'submit_ip', '77.69.167.26'),
(43700, 29, 6766, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43701, 29, 6766, 'text-604', 'Vibhor'),
(43702, 29, 6766, 'email-510', 'vibhor389@yahoo.com'),
(43703, 29, 6766, 'tel-299', ''),
(43704, 29, 6766, 'your-message', 'please send small cap pms details'),
(43705, 29, 6766, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 16:47:27'),
(43706, 29, 6766, 'submit_ip', '122.162.190.148'),
(43707, 1662, 6767, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(43714, 29, 6768, 'text-604', 'Prerak '),
(43715, 29, 6768, 'email-510', 'prerakv1@gmail.com'),
(43716, 29, 6768, 'tel-299', '7359282795'),
(43717, 29, 6768, 'your-message', 'Want some inquiry  regarding  PMS \r\n\r\nAs interested  in investing for 3 years'),
(43718, 29, 6768, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 17:30:44'),
(43719, 29, 6768, 'submit_ip', '43.250.158.193'),
(43720, 1662, 6769, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43721, 1662, 6769, 'your-name', 'Ranodeep Sen'),
(43722, 1662, 6769, 'your-email', 'Panachecolors@gmail.com'),
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(43724, 1662, 6769, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 18:36:45'),
(43725, 1662, 6769, 'submit_ip', '60.254.118.117'),
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(43727, 29, 6770, 'text-604', 'Ranodeep Sen'),
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(43729, 29, 6770, 'tel-299', '07702299923'),
(43730, 29, 6770, 'your-message', 'Hello Team Marcellus . Went through your Little Champs Portfolio Webinar ..super impressed with the DUE DILIGENCE that the entire team has put in . I am  an entrepreneur and presently in my mid 30\'s ...would love to invest here . Whats the minimum investment . Thanks - Ranodeep Sen'),
(43731, 29, 6770, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 18:43:53'),
(43732, 29, 6770, 'submit_ip', '60.254.118.117'),
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(43734, 1662, 6771, 'your-name', 'Naman'),
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(43736, 1662, 6771, 'tel-309', '9035910850'),
(43737, 1662, 6771, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 19:40:15'),
(43738, 1662, 6771, 'submit_ip', '106.51.105.223'),
(43739, 28, 6772, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43740, 28, 6772, 'text-996', 'mithun jathal'),
(43741, 28, 6772, 'email-563', 'niyati.dms@gmail.com'),
(43742, 28, 6772, 'tel-182', '9978944313'),
(43743, 28, 6772, 'your-message', 'Pls call me as I would want to associate as a distributor with Marcellus '),
(43744, 28, 6772, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 19:59:25'),
(43745, 28, 6772, 'submit_ip', '42.106.47.87'),
(43746, 1662, 6773, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43747, 1662, 6773, 'your-name', 'KS Narayanan'),
(43748, 1662, 6773, 'your-email', 'ksnaraya@gmail.com'),
(43749, 1662, 6773, 'tel-309', '9320003345'),
(43750, 1662, 6773, 'submit_time', '2020-02-11 22:21:31'),
(43751, 1662, 6773, 'submit_ip', '49.36.2.1'),
(43752, 29, 6774, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43753, 29, 6774, 'text-604', 'Dwain Birtles'),
(43754, 29, 6774, 'email-510', 'info@marcellus.in'),
(43755, 29, 6774, 'tel-299', ''),
(43756, 29, 6774, 'your-message', 'Hey right now\r\n\r\nMy name is Birtles. I\'m the manager of social networking influencer Bikershift\r\n\r\nI\'m reaching out since I believe this influencer is a superb fit for your brand. By hiring the influencer for a sponsored message, they can significantly enhance your variety of fans and engagement on Instagram. Thus, helping you attract much more customers as well as increase your business.\r\n\r\nhttp://bikershift.epizy.com\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nSent out from smart phone, all error self brought upon.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n'),
(43757, 29, 6774, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 03:15:52'),
(43758, 29, 6774, 'submit_ip', '50.31.8.137'),
(43759, 29, 6775, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43760, 29, 6775, 'text-604', 'Manish Adwani'),
(43761, 29, 6775, 'email-510', 'm_adwani1@rediffmail.com'),
(43762, 29, 6775, 'tel-299', '9158999956'),
(43763, 29, 6775, 'your-message', 'Want to know more on consistent compounders and little champs. If everything goes well, may think about investing.'),
(43764, 29, 6775, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 04:46:03'),
(43765, 29, 6775, 'submit_ip', '49.248.70.22'),
(43766, 29, 6776, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43767, 29, 6776, 'text-604', 'Karthik Venkatesh'),
(43768, 29, 6776, 'email-510', 'kav@globetek.in'),
(43769, 29, 6776, 'tel-299', '09448353241'),
(43770, 29, 6776, 'your-message', 'Would like to know details about the little champs pms'),
(43771, 29, 6776, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 05:22:08'),
(43772, 29, 6776, 'submit_ip', '157.45.120.180'),
(43773, 1662, 6777, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43774, 1662, 6777, 'your-name', 'Prerna Agarwal'),
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(43776, 1662, 6777, 'tel-309', '7387332288'),
(43777, 1662, 6777, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 05:31:25'),
(43778, 1662, 6777, 'submit_ip', '47.31.82.42'),
(43779, 28, 6778, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43780, 28, 6778, 'text-996', 'Anisha Kathotia'),
(43781, 28, 6778, 'email-563', 'anisha@kathotia.com'),
(43782, 28, 6778, 'tel-182', '9831044668'),
(43783, 28, 6778, 'your-message', 'i would like to empanel as a PMS distributor'),
(43784, 28, 6778, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 05:34:07'),
(43785, 28, 6778, 'submit_ip', '103.192.61.31'),
(43786, 1662, 6779, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43787, 1662, 6779, 'your-name', 'Aditya Gokhale'),
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(43790, 1662, 6779, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 05:38:47'),
(43791, 1662, 6779, 'submit_ip', '202.67.5.150'),
(43792, 28, 6780, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43793, 28, 6780, 'text-996', 'Shouvik Chaudhuri'),
(43794, 28, 6780, 'email-563', 'sgc5000@yahoo.com'),
(43795, 28, 6780, 'tel-182', ''),
(43796, 28, 6780, 'your-message', 'Please send me the Investment Brochure and details of Minimum Investment and Fee Structure'),
(43797, 28, 6780, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 06:14:51'),
(43798, 28, 6780, 'submit_ip', '199.116.168.7'),
(43799, 1662, 6781, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43800, 1662, 6781, 'your-name', 'Subban chettiar DEENATHAYALAN'),
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(43812, 1662, 6783, 'your-name', 'Alok Srivastava'),
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(43815, 1662, 6783, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 08:23:11'),
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(43824, 29, 6785, 'text-604', 'Nippun aneja '),
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(43826, 29, 6785, 'tel-299', '9833483562'),
(43827, 29, 6785, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcellus Team ,\r\n\r\nWould like to schedule a meeting to understand your performance , services and investment strategy . \r\nPlease give me a call to schedule a meeting \r\nRegards \r\nNippun Aneja \r\n9833483562 '),
(43828, 29, 6785, 'submit_time', '2020-02-12 08:25:59'),
(43829, 29, 6785, 'submit_ip', '42.106.254.119'),
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(43841, 1662, 6787, 'submit_ip', '112.196.92.87'),
(43842, 2456, 6788, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(43843, 2456, 6788, 'your-name', 'Manish dani'),
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(43852, 28, 6789, 'your-message', 'I want to get associated with saurabh mukherjea'),
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(43854, 28, 6789, 'submit_ip', '223.189.32.53'),
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(43856, 29, 6790, 'text-604', 'venkatreddy mareddy'),
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(43859, 29, 6790, 'your-message', 'Inform the PMS details and arrange the mobile number of concerned team member'),
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(43876, 1662, 6793, 'your-name', 'mamta Pradhan'),
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(44210, 28, 6845, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\nJust wanted to speak on investment avenues.You may call between 3 to 4 pm Singapore time.'),
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(44217, 28, 6846, 'your-message', 'hello , I am IFA , how can sell your PMS ?'),
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(44221, 29, 6847, 'text-604', 'Gaurav Kumar'),
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(44257, 28, 6852, 'your-message', 'I am Rahul Dadhich, CFA L1 Cleared, CFP. I am an IFA based out of Assam. Some of my client often ask me about the PMS services. So, i reach out to you to know the services you offer. I am quite aware about the risk of the product and i work ethically with full and fare disclosure with my clients. looking forward to get a positive response from your side.'),
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(44261, 29, 6853, 'text-604', 'SOMNATH S IYER'),
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(44264, 29, 6853, 'your-message', 'I would like to know the detailed methodology and the fee structure of your flagship Consistent Performer PMS. Thanks'),
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(44268, 29, 6854, 'text-604', 'KRISHNAN SADASIVAN'),
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(44271, 29, 6854, 'your-message', 'I have two questions\r\n1. Will the portfolio of stocks change for different fee structures. Will the portfolio be different if i choose fixed fee compared to variable fees?\r\n2. In case of mutual fund schemes, the charges for a regular plan is higher than a direct plan due to the compensation paid to financial planners/advisors. Is it similar here? Will the fees be higher if I invest through a financial planner associated with  Marcellus?'),
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(44288, 1662, 6857, 'your-name', 'Anagha'),
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(44294, 28, 6858, 'text-996', 'Gaurav Agarwal'),
(44295, 28, 6858, 'email-563', 'gagarwal@survam.com'),
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(44297, 28, 6858, 'your-message', 'Dear All\r\nWe are a family office based out at Delhi. Kindly get in touch as per contact details shared with you.\r\nAppreciate a timely respond.\r\n'),
(44298, 28, 6858, 'submit_time', '2020-02-14 09:20:29'),
(44299, 28, 6858, 'submit_ip', '122.15.38.2'),
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(44301, 29, 6860, 'text-604', 'Don Lewis'),
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(44303, 29, 6860, 'tel-299', '9004974100'),
(44304, 29, 6860, 'your-message', 'Interested in PMS with 25L investment.\r\nKindly advise the expenses and returns');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(44305, 29, 6860, 'submit_time', '2020-02-14 15:09:16'),
(44306, 29, 6860, 'submit_ip', '203.212.200.213'),
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(44312, 29, 6861, 'submit_time', '2020-02-14 17:29:06'),
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(44318, 1662, 6862, 'submit', 'Send'),
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(44320, 1662, 6862, 'submit_ip', '195.154.183.25'),
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(44331, 29, 6864, 'your-message', 'I want 25 lakh in your PMS.'),
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(44335, 29, 6865, 'text-604', 'chandramouli'),
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(44352, 1662, 6867, 'submit_ip', '106.197.222.76'),
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(44355, 28, 6868, 'email-563', 'karanbarmecha90@yahoo.com'),
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(44357, 28, 6868, 'your-message', 'Please share your latest performance report/ deck of Consistent compounders and little champs.'),
(44358, 28, 6868, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 06:55:05'),
(44359, 28, 6868, 'submit_ip', '122.163.35.4'),
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(44361, 29, 6869, 'text-604', 'Poonam Dash'),
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(44364, 29, 6869, 'your-message', 'Little champs/ Consistent compounders performance report and details for investment.'),
(44365, 29, 6869, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 06:56:08'),
(44366, 29, 6869, 'submit_ip', '122.163.35.4'),
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(44370, 28, 6870, 'tel-182', '+6597283302'),
(44371, 28, 6870, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nInterested to invest in a  PMS service.'),
(44372, 28, 6870, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 06:58:32'),
(44373, 28, 6870, 'submit_ip', '42.60.48.115'),
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(44378, 29, 6871, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI came across the cc PMS. What is the minimum investment amount ? Is it still 25 lakhs'),
(44379, 29, 6871, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 08:25:54'),
(44380, 29, 6871, 'submit_ip', '49.207.60.26'),
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(44387, 1662, 6872, 'submit_ip', '159.224.255.154'),
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(44389, 29, 6873, 'text-604', 'Salman'),
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(44396, 29, 6874, 'text-604', 'Mahesh TG'),
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(44399, 29, 6874, 'your-message', 'Need to open an investment account for good returns.'),
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(44403, 29, 6875, 'text-604', 'Joe Polding'),
(44404, 29, 6875, 'email-510', 'info@marcellus.in'),
(44405, 29, 6875, 'tel-299', ''),
(44406, 29, 6875, 'your-message', '\r\n\r\nYou are invited to join the leading global influencer network that connects businesses with influencers, &amp; long-lasting customers.\r\n\r\nBeginning currently  complimentary 7 days test!\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n Save  currently 75% on the  Cost!\r\n\r\n Make Use Of the  Discount Coupon Code: A578AB77A8\r\n\r\nCoupon is valid  till 15.02.20\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nhttp://influencers.epizy.com\r\n\r\nBest,\r\n\r\nJoe\r\n\r\nSent out from my apple iphone\r\n\r\nIn the case that you\'re not fascinated, then i say sorry as well as thanks for reading so far.\r\n\r\n\r\nToscrub: //eymy.influenceme.xyz/link/u/b3rgell76\r\n\r\n\r\n'),
(44407, 29, 6875, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 11:10:12'),
(44408, 29, 6875, 'submit_ip', '200.73.128.164'),
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(44410, 28, 6876, 'text-996', 'Nainish Wadiwala - MD R Wadiwala'),
(44411, 28, 6876, 'email-563', 'nainish@rwadiwala.com'),
(44412, 28, 6876, 'tel-182', '9825499068'),
(44413, 28, 6876, 'your-message', 'We are into stock broking, MF distribution, PMS and Advisory services. We are based in South Gujarat and have 30000 customers. Our asset under custody is Rs 1200 cr. Our PMS and advisory AUM is Rs 150 cr\r\n\r\nWe are interested in distributing your PMS. Kind request to give me your contact name and number or call me on my cell number. Thank You. '),
(44414, 28, 6876, 'submit_time', '2020-02-15 11:53:55'),
(44415, 28, 6876, 'submit_ip', '219.91.169.120'),
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(44423, 29, 6878, 'text-604', 'Ashutosh Kumar Gupta'),
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(44435, 1662, 6879, 'submit_ip', '37.115.124.3'),
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(44455, 1662, 6882, 'submit_ip', '37.115.124.3'),
(44456, 29, 6883, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(44457, 29, 6883, 'text-604', 'Rahul Thomas'),
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(44460, 29, 6883, 'your-message', 'Dear Marcellus team ,\r\nDo you have an offshore option for NRIs who wish to invest in USD\r\nbest regards\r\nRahul'),
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(44924, 29, 6958, 'your-message', 'Hi Team,\r\nIam interested with Consistent Compounder Investment and have below queries.\r\n\r\n1.	All the amount – 50 Lakhs invested as per Coffee Can process/method/philosophy?\r\n2.	What is the Max draw down one can expect during 10 years period? \r\n3.	When an investor would like to withdraw money…should that be always anything above 50Lakhs or no limit as such?\r\n4.	Currently I have already opened PIS account (Yes bank+ Zerodha) …How should I proceed further if I have to opt for Marcellus PMS program?\r\n5.	Below is my understanding of 17.6% return (Conservative approach) with 50% of success. Please correct me if I am wrong.\r\nI could not paste picture here\r\n \r\n'),
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When looking for the most efficient and specialized essay writing services, think of all the benefits you obtain from contacting Let our expert writers develop a masterpiece based on the needs you have.\r\n\r\nHere\'s a few of the benefits of buying yours through our on the internet paper writing service. Even when a student is a fantastic essay writer, they might still not have plenty of time to complete all the writing assignments promptly or do this sufficiently, especially when the exams are next to. Oxbridge Essays is 100% confidential, 100% on time and 100% guaranteed plagiarism-free.\r\n\r\nYou will see all writers who work with our essay writing support before selecting a author of your choosing, or allowing a system select the writer for you automatically. Our services also include editing any form and style of tailor made papers, at any educational level. The main thing is they know some proven secrets that help them work efficiently and deliver papers promptly.\r\n\r\nKnowing that, you have a lot to consider when you hire an academic writing service. For many, custom writing basically means finding written content online that pertains to the customer\'s order, and then re-configuring or spinningâ€ it, to be able to fill that order. Each paragraph should have its topic sentence Here is the most important sentence in the paragraph that informs readers what the rest of the paragraph will undoubtedly be about.\r\n\r\nThroughout the country, the most successful students order sort my When you use our essay writer service, you are guaranteed to be paired with among our top writers. The simplest way to narrow down a thesis and develop a proper argument is to create a basic outline before starting writing your essay. We boasts of nearly 100 professional essay writers.\r\n\r\nAs a rule, experienced academic authors work there, so that they know very well what your essay should appear to be to remember to a professor. All writers create custom made educational assignments from scratch performing in-depth research for the information had a need to meet your tutor\'s anticipation. They feel that even after achieving this type of feat, the quality of said paper will be nothing to send a letter home about.\r\n\r\nMeet up with the deadlines and score on top of your essays. Master\'s and Ph.D. academic levels - elite writers will write essay for you because only extremely educated experts are designed for any task. Here you can find IELTS Sample Essays for a number of common topics that come in the writing exam. The assigned author creates the paper specifically from scratch meticulously sticking with all the instructions and extra requirements you supply us with.\r\n\r\nEvery student needs their papers to get delivered promptly and we take this matter seriously. We are always pleased to present you with quality papers. The author from essay writing provider broke down some fundamental demographics for me. The vast majority of the writers that work with these essay expert services are English speaking natives from the united states, the united kingdom, Canada and Australia.\r\n\r\nTurn in 100% plagiarism-free papers - let the world know you\'re the writer. The option is appreciated by pupils who purchase multi-paged papers and want to split payments. To order your initial essay with us, simply fill out an order form, purchase the piece, and get touching the assigned writer. Communicate with the writer whenever you want using protected chat board and keep track of the writing progress.\r\n\r\nHe followed the directions very plainly and delivered an excellent paper before the timeframe. First, write a subject sentence that summarizes your level. Our products include educational papers of varying complexity along with other personalized services, along with research materials for guidance purposes only. This information helps us find a skilled essay writer for each and every order.\r\n\r\nOften on assessments, choosing the correct type of essay to write in response to a writing prompt is key to getting the question right. We are always open to any form of assistance to our customers, while our qualified essay writers process orders quickly but at the same time with all important competence and in compliance with creating standards. So you decided it had been time and energy to hire an essay provider.\r\n\r\nContact your writer for free anytime using the Forum. We have many writers with 3+ years of experience under the belt. There\'s also a high chance that you may fail to appropriately cite your sources when posting it yourself, with this possibility increasing for high-level educational papers. You may well be sure we provide all our customers with a 100% high quality material. We are sure that no other writing business will offer this for you online.\r\n \r\n[url=https://studybay.com/latest-orders/211125/]https://studybay.com/latest-orders/211125/[/url]\r\n[url=https://studybay.com/blog/study/]https://studybay.com/blog/study/[/url]\r\n'),
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(45053, 28, 6978, 'your-message', 'kindly let us know the pms\'s open for subscription currently. thank you. regards rikin.\r\nWe are an investment &amp; advisory firm located in BKC, since 1997.'),
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(45319, 28, 7020, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nJust to introduce myself, I work within our manger research team at Mercer.\r\n\r\nWe have identified one or more of your strategies as of potential interest to our client base. In order to review these strategies, we would like to ask you to complete a questionnaire.\r\n\r\nPlease provide me a contact so I can email across this.\r\n\r\nMany thanks\r\nSagar\r\nSagar Shah, CFA\r\nMercer | Tower Place, London, EC3R 5BU, United Kingdom\r\n+ 44 (0)20 7178 6937 | sagar.shah@mercer.com\r\nwww.mercer.com | Follow us on LinkedIn\r\n\r\n'),
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(45353, 28, 7025, 'your-message', 'Hi...I have been in the financial services sector for 20 years and have worked with both private and MNC banks. I have recently started my on wealth management company with exclusive focus on HNI and ultra HNI clients. \r\n\r\nI was going through the PMS performance and came across your schemes and was impressed by the performance and results. Would like to empanel as a distributor. Kindly contact. Regards.'),
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(46572, 28, 7218, 'your-message', 'I\'m happy to welcome you! \r\n \r\nWe offer sending newsletters of Your commercial offers via follow-up forms to the sites of business organizations via all domain zones of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttp://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nThe Letter is sent to E-mail address \r\n of business organization one hundred percent will get to inside of the inbox folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\n10000 messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - twenty $. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all domains of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domain names- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of sites - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \r\nCompanies of Russia - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domains - 200$ \r\n \r\nOur databases: \r\nWHOIS databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP/S \r\nPlease, do not respond to this letter from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \r\nUse the contact form from the site http://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 15 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $200 \r\n \r\n35439 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\nAmiro 2294 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 175513 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 49721 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 7769 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1562 websites $50 \r\nDatalife 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(46807, 29, 7254, 'your-message', '\r\nHi,\r\n\r\nYou know it’s true…\r\n\r\nYour competition just can’t hold a candle to the way you DELIVER real solutions to your customers on your website marcellus.in.\r\n\r\nBut it’s a shame when good people who need what you have to offer wind up settling for second best or even worse.\r\n\r\nNot only do they deserve better, you deserve to be at the top of their list.\r\n \r\nTalkWithCustomer can reliably turn your website marcellus.in into a serious, lead generating machine.\r\n\r\nWith TalkWithCustomer installed on your site, visitors can either call you immediately or schedule a call for you in the future.\r\n \r\nAnd the difference to your business can be staggering – up to 100X more leads could be yours, just by giving TalkWithCustomer a FREE 14 Day Test Drive.\r\n \r\nThere’s absolutely NO risk to you, so CLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to sign up for this free test drive now.  \r\n\r\nTons more leads? You deserve it.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\nPS:  Odds are, you won’t have long to wait before seeing results:\r\nThis service makes an immediate difference in getting people on the phone right away before they have a chance to turn around and surf off to a competitor\'s website. D Traylor, Traylor Law  \r\nWhy wait any longer?  \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to take the FREE 14-Day Test Drive and start converting up to 100X more leads today!\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(46820, 28, 7256, 'your-message', 'hi there \r\nI have just checked marcellus.in for the ranking keywords and seen that your SEO metrics could use a boost. \r\n \r\nWe will improve your SEO metrics and ranks organically and safely, using only whitehat methods, while providing monthly reports and outstanding support. \r\n \r\nPlease check our pricelist here, we offer SEO at cheap rates. \r\nhttps://www.hilkom-digital.de/cheap-seo-packages/ \r\n \r\nStart increasing your sales and leads with us, today! \r\n \r\nregards \r\nHilkom Digital Team \r\nsupport@hilkom-digital.de'),
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(46970, 29, 7279, 'your-message', 'I am looking to invest through NRE account !'),
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(46980, 29, 7281, 'text-604', 'Eric Jones'),
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(46983, 29, 7281, 'your-message', '\r\nHello marcellus.in,\r\n\r\nPeople ask, “why does TalkWithCustomer work so well?”\r\n\r\nIt’s simple.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer enables you to connect with a prospective customer at EXACTLY the Perfect Time.\r\n\r\n- NOT one week, two weeks, three weeks after they’ve checked out your website marcellus.in.\r\n- NOT with a form letter style email that looks like it was written by a bot.\r\n- NOT with a robocall that could come at any time out of the blue.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer connects you to that person within seconds of THEM asking to hear from YOU.\r\n\r\nThey kick off the conversation.\r\n\r\nThey take that first step.\r\n\r\nThey ask to hear from you regarding what you have to offer and how it can make their life better. \r\n\r\nAnd it happens almost immediately. In real time. While they’re still looking over your website marcellus.in, trying to make up their mind whether you are right for them.\r\n\r\nWhen you connect with them at that very moment it’s the ultimate in Perfect Timing – as one famous marketer put it, “you’re entering the conversation already going on in their mind.”\r\n\r\nYou can’t find a better opportunity than that.\r\n\r\nAnd you can’t find an easier way to seize that chance than TalkWithCustomer. \r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive and see what a difference “Perfect Timing” can make to your business.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS:  If you’re wondering whether NOW is the perfect time to try TalkWithCustomer, ask yourself this:\r\nWill doing what I’m already doing now produce up to 100X more leads?\r\nBecause those are the kinds of results we know TalkWithCustomer can deliver.  \r\nIt shouldn’t even be a question, especially since it will cost you ZERO to give it a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start your free 14-day test drive today.\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
(46984, 29, 7281, 'submit_time', '2020-02-25 16:17:12'),
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(46990, 29, 7282, 'your-message', 'Dear ,\r\nI want to invest in pms  as NRI.PL guide me the requirement and fees in the detail \r\nregards\r\n\r\nA  patel'),
(46991, 29, 7282, 'submit_time', '2020-02-25 16:23:51'),
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(46997, 28, 7283, 'your-message', 'I am looking to invest my life savings in a PMS. Looking for long term, 20 years and more. Low risk and consistent returns. Also plan to add more every year to the initial amount every year. \r\n\r\nYour investment philosophy seems to fit the bill. Please send me the details about your PMS services.'),
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(47013, 29, 7286, 'text-604', 'Kris Tristan'),
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(47016, 29, 7286, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nDid you see the email we sent to you on 01 Feb 2020 about our premium quality Posture Corrector currently sold at Shoulderposture.com  at a huge discounted price? In case you missed it out or didn’t open the email, quickly follow the link above to check out Posture Corrector. \r\nWith quality Posture Corrector, you can be confident of good posture while using your computer and during exercise. Of course, you can’t afford to wait until you develop severe back and shoulder pain because of poor posture before you get a solution.\r\nSee Posture Corrector Here: Shoulderposture.com \r\nGet the solution you need now. Get  PREMIUM POSTURE CORRECTOR at affordable prices today. \r\n \r\nBest regards,\r\nShoulderposture.com Team\r\n'),
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(47043, 28, 7290, 'your-message', 'May I have an email address of Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea?\r\n'),
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(47110, 29, 7300, 'your-message', 'Interested to know about PMS. '),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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of sites - 200$ \r\nCompanies of RF - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nOur databases: \r\nWHOIS databases of domains for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP/S \r\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site http://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 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(47284, 29, 7328, 'your-message', 'Hey there, I just found your site, quick question…\r\n\r\nMy name’s Eric, I found marcellus.in after doing a quick search – you showed up near the top of the rankings, so whatever you’re doing for SEO, looks like it’s working well.\r\n\r\nSo here’s my question – what happens AFTER someone lands on your site?  Anything?\r\n\r\nResearch tells us at least 70% of the people who find your site, after a quick once-over, they disappear… forever.\r\n\r\nThat means that all the work and effort you put into getting them to show up, goes down the tubes.\r\n\r\nWhy would you want all that good work – and the great site you’ve built – go to waste?\r\n\r\nBecause the odds are they’ll just skip over calling or even grabbing their phone, leaving you high and dry.\r\n\r\nBut here’s a thought… what if you could make it super-simple for someone to raise their hand, say, “okay, let’s talk” without requiring them to even pull their cell phone from their pocket?\r\n  \r\nYou can – thanks to revolutionary new software that can literally make that first call happen NOW.\r\n\r\nTalk With Web Visitor is a software widget that sits on your site, ready and waiting to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number.  It lets you know IMMEDIATELY – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re still there at your site.\r\n  \r\nYou know, strike when the iron’s hot!\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.\r\n\r\nWhen targeting leads, you HAVE to act fast – the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later is huge – like 100 times better!\r\n\r\nThat’s why you should check out our new SMS Text With Lead feature as well… once you’ve captured the phone number of the website visitor, you can automatically kick off a text message (SMS) conversation with them. \r\n \r\nImagine how powerful this could be – even if they don’t take you up on your offer immediately, you can stay in touch with them using text messages to make new offers, provide links to great content, and build your credibility.\r\n\r\nJust this alone could be a game changer to make your website even more effective.\r\n\r\nStrike when  the iron’s hot!\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to learn more about everything Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business – you’ll be amazed.\r\n\r\nThanks and keep up the great work!\r\n\r\nEric\r\nPS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – you could be converting up to 100x more leads immediately!   \r\nIt even includes International Long Distance Calling. \r\nStop wasting money chasing eyeballs that don’t turn into paying customers. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(47303, 29, 7331, 'your-message', 'Hello marcellus.in,\r\n\r\nPeople ask, “why does TalkWithCustomer work so well?”\r\n\r\nIt’s simple.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer enables you to connect with a prospective customer at EXACTLY the Perfect Time.\r\n\r\n- NOT one week, two weeks, three weeks after they’ve checked out your website marcellus.in.\r\n- NOT with a form letter style email that looks like it was written by a bot.\r\n- NOT with a robocall that could come at any time out of the blue.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer connects you to that person within seconds of THEM asking to hear from YOU.\r\n\r\nThey kick off the conversation.\r\n\r\nThey take that first step.\r\n\r\nThey ask to hear from you regarding what you have to offer and how it can make their life better. \r\n\r\nAnd it happens almost immediately. In real time. While they’re still looking over your website marcellus.in, trying to make up their mind whether you are right for them.\r\n\r\nWhen you connect with them at that very moment it’s the ultimate in Perfect Timing – as one famous marketer put it, “you’re entering the conversation already going on in their mind.”\r\n\r\nYou can’t find a better opportunity than that.\r\n\r\nAnd you can’t find an easier way to seize that chance than TalkWithCustomer. \r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive and see what a difference “Perfect Timing” can make to your business.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS:  If you’re wondering whether NOW is the perfect time to try TalkWithCustomer, ask yourself this:\r\nWill doing what I’m already doing now produce up to 100X more leads?\r\nBecause those are the kinds of results we know TalkWithCustomer can deliver.  \r\nIt shouldn’t even be a question, especially since it will cost you ZERO to give it a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithcustomer.com to start your free 14-day test drive today.\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://liveserveronline.com/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(47966, 29, 7438, 'your-message', '\r\nI want to invest some funds. Pl intimate abt PMS SERVICES\r\n'),
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(47968, 29, 7438, 'submit_ip', '47.31.92.174'),
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(47974, 1662, 7439, 'submit_ip', '207.191.158.124'),
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(47976, 29, 7440, 'text-604', 'Col R Jetley'),
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(47979, 29, 7440, 'your-message', 'Plz intimate plz about PMS services.'),
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(47981, 29, 7440, 'submit_ip', '47.31.92.174'),
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(47983, 29, 7441, 'text-604', 'Sanjay kumar '),
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(47986, 29, 7441, 'your-message', 'Can someone pls call me for investment discussions. '),
(47987, 29, 7441, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 03:20:42'),
(47988, 29, 7441, 'submit_ip', '171.48.47.228'),
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(47993, 29, 7442, 'your-message', 'Portfolio management schemes '),
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(48000, 29, 7443, 'your-message', 'Hi , I would like to understand what\'s your investment model and conditions. If you could connect and let me know. Thanks Best regards\r\n'),
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(48002, 29, 7443, 'submit_ip', '106.197.212.233'),
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(48013, 29, 7445, 'your-message', 'I am a share market investor and want to know the services/support provided by u guys.'),
(48014, 29, 7445, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 03:24:11'),
(48015, 29, 7445, 'submit_ip', '47.30.206.28'),
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(48017, 29, 7446, 'text-604', 'ChetanKumar Purushottam Mahurkar'),
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(48020, 29, 7446, 'your-message', 'I am retail invester, I want better pic to invest..'),
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(48022, 29, 7446, 'submit_ip', '1.38.236.38'),
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(48024, 29, 7447, 'text-604', 'Alkesh Prabhu Dessai'),
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(48027, 29, 7447, 'your-message', 'I am interested in understanding your PMS philosophy in detail, and possibly invest. '),
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(48046, 28, 7450, 'your-message', 'I have an investment advisory firm in Amravati and currently managing an AUM of approximately 200 cr as on date. I would like to know if you have any feature in your product where a client has the control over the portfolio by purchasing shares in any demat account of his/her choice but Marcellus acts as an advisor on the shares to be purchased by that particular client.'),
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(48053, 28, 7451, 'your-message', 'I have an investment advisory firm in Amravati and currently managing an AUM of approximately 200 cr as on date. I would like to know if you have any feature in your product where a client has the control over the portfolio by purchasing shares in any demat account of his/her choice but Marcellus acts as an advisor on the shares to be purchased by that particular client.'),
(48054, 28, 7451, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 05:46:31'),
(48055, 28, 7451, 'submit_ip', '157.47.212.0'),
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(48059, 28, 7452, 'tel-182', '00971504676515'),
(48060, 28, 7452, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI, having PIS in axis bank.Started with JRG and plan to come out. I have very less stock, which got loss in many times. Last year thought to start PMS when it was 25L. Now needs to accumulate to bring to 50L.As I knoe NRI can have only one PIS. How to work it out. I saw the fees of 2% per annum is it for the toatal amount ie. 50 L invested + profit.'),
(48061, 28, 7452, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 05:50:47'),
(48062, 28, 7452, 'submit_ip', '176.205.106.189'),
(48063, 2456, 7453, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(48068, 2456, 7453, 'submit_ip', '125.18.52.138'),
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(48074, 1662, 7454, 'submit_ip', '49.207.56.45'),
(48075, 29, 7455, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48076, 29, 7455, 'text-604', 'SURINDER PAL'),
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(48079, 29, 7455, 'your-message', 'Sir\r\nI want to invest. '),
(48080, 29, 7455, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 07:12:27'),
(48081, 29, 7455, 'submit_ip', '157.39.231.162'),
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(48086, 1662, 7456, 'submit', 'Send'),
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(48088, 1662, 7456, 'submit_ip', '5.188.84.130'),
(48089, 29, 7457, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48090, 29, 7457, 'text-604', 'narendra sharma'),
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(48093, 29, 7457, 'your-message', 'pls contact me for pms,tks'),
(48094, 29, 7457, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 07:37:28'),
(48095, 29, 7457, 'submit_ip', '157.47.206.122'),
(48096, 1662, 7458, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48097, 1662, 7458, 'your-name', 'Kamlakar'),
(48098, 1662, 7458, 'your-email', 'zadekb@gmail.com'),
(48099, 1662, 7458, 'tel-309', '9322662156'),
(48100, 1662, 7458, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 07:48:27'),
(48101, 1662, 7458, 'submit_ip', '49.36.13.57'),
(48102, 29, 7459, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48103, 29, 7459, 'text-604', 'VIKRAM VISWANATHAN'),
(48104, 29, 7459, 'email-510', 'VISWANATHAN.VIKRAM@GMAIL.COM'),
(48105, 29, 7459, 'tel-299', '+965 9091 3919'),
(48106, 29, 7459, 'your-message', 'I\'am based in Kuwait and keen on investing in your product.'),
(48107, 29, 7459, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 08:13:41'),
(48108, 29, 7459, 'submit_ip', '188.236.155.225'),
(48109, 29, 7460, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48110, 29, 7460, 'text-604', 'srinivas'),
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(48112, 29, 7460, 'tel-299', '9849551533'),
(48113, 29, 7460, 'your-message', 'Hi, I would like to invest Rs 25 Lacs and possibly build it over time. Would like to know if the portfolio constituents vary as per the fee structure opted for? or would they remain the same irrespective of how one would like to engage? What is a high water mark for calculation of performance fees?  Can you please revert. Thanks.'),
(48114, 29, 7460, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:00:27'),
(48115, 29, 7460, 'submit_ip', '27.59.134.52'),
(48116, 28, 7461, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48117, 28, 7461, 'text-996', 'Venkatesh Puthige'),
(48118, 28, 7461, 'email-563', 'venkateshgofp@gmail.com'),
(48119, 28, 7461, 'tel-182', '09820453377'),
(48120, 28, 7461, 'your-message', 'Need to discuss regd PMS\r\n'),
(48121, 28, 7461, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:21:59'),
(48122, 28, 7461, 'submit_ip', '42.107.158.124'),
(48123, 1662, 7462, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48124, 1662, 7462, 'your-name', 'JUBAIR AHMED MAZUMDER'),
(48125, 1662, 7462, 'your-email', 'jubair1987@gmail.com'),
(48126, 1662, 7462, 'tel-309', '8904668421'),
(48127, 1662, 7462, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:22:15'),
(48128, 1662, 7462, 'submit_ip', '223.227.19.224'),
(48129, 1662, 7463, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48130, 1662, 7463, 'your-name', 'Advik'),
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(48132, 1662, 7463, 'tel-309', '9967240818'),
(48133, 1662, 7463, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:25:31'),
(48134, 1662, 7463, 'submit_ip', '14.142.125.5'),
(48135, 29, 7464, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48136, 29, 7464, 'text-604', 'Vikas Raskar'),
(48137, 29, 7464, 'email-510', 'vnraskar02@gmail.com'),
(48138, 29, 7464, 'tel-299', '9820416383'),
(48139, 29, 7464, 'your-message', 'I want to start investing as I see market is falling so there is a opportunity in coming days'),
(48140, 29, 7464, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:33:22'),
(48141, 29, 7464, 'submit_ip', '116.75.14.117'),
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(48145, 1662, 7465, 'tel-309', '84223174452'),
(48146, 1662, 7465, 'submit', 'Send'),
(48147, 1662, 7465, 'submit_time', '2020-02-28 10:48:48'),
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(48335, 29, 7495, 'your-message', 'Pls call'),
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(48835, 28, 7573, 'your-message', 'Hi ,\r\n\r\nWe have formed a Private Ltd company can please let me know the process for empanelment with your company for PMS \r\n\r\nMy email ID is ajay_yengal@hotmail.com'),
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(48887, 2456, 7582, 'your-name', 'dhiraj'),
(48888, 2456, 7582, 'your-email', 'dhiraj.mistry@daiwafunds.in'),
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(48893, 2456, 7583, 'your-name', 'Hemansu Mody'),
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(48899, 29, 7584, 'text-604', 'Ritesh Prasad'),
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(48902, 29, 7584, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to get in touch with you to invest in your PMS. \r\nHave heard good things about the track record of Marcellus. Let me know how we can take this ahead!\r\nRegards,\r\nRitesh'),
(48903, 29, 7584, 'submit_time', '2020-03-02 11:43:34'),
(48904, 29, 7584, 'submit_ip', '196.12.58.69'),
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(48906, 28, 7585, 'text-996', 'Immensuswealth Management LLP'),
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(48911, 28, 7585, 'submit_ip', '180.151.102.74'),
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(48923, 2456, 7587, 'submit_ip', '125.22.53.2'),
(48924, 29, 7588, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(48925, 29, 7588, 'text-604', 'Dharmesh Shah'),
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(48928, 29, 7588, 'your-message', 'For fund management '),
(48929, 29, 7588, 'submit_time', '2020-03-02 16:15:12'),
(48930, 29, 7588, 'submit_ip', '106.206.3.141'),
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(48948, 2456, 7591, 'submit_ip', '27.255.243.41'),
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(48954, 1662, 7592, 'submit_ip', '103.240.236.99'),
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(48968, 28, 7595, 'text-996', 'Monica Brown'),
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(48971, 28, 7595, 'your-message', 'I messaged previously about how explainer videos became an absolute must for every website in 2020. Driving relevant traffic to your site is hard enough, you must capture this traffic and engage them! \r\n \r\n \r\nAs you know, Google is constantly changing its SEO algorithm. The only thing that has remained consistent is that adding an explainer video increases website rank and most importantly keeps customers on your page for longer, increasing conversions ratios. \r\n \r\n \r\nMy team has created thousands of marketing videos including dozens in your field. Simplify your pitch, increase website traffic, and close more business. \r\n \r\n \r\nShould I send over some industry-specific samples? \r\n \r\n \r\n-- Monica Brown \r\n \r\n \r\nEmail: M.Brown@explainthebiz.online \r\nWebsite: http://explainthebiz.online'),
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(49037, 29, 7606, 'text-604', 'SREENATH NARAYANA SWAMY'),
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(49040, 29, 7606, 'your-message', 'Hi, could you please send me your brochure/ presentation and any other reading material regarding your PMS.\r\nThanks'),
(49041, 29, 7606, 'submit_time', '2020-03-03 05:02:13'),
(49042, 29, 7606, 'submit_ip', '49.33.184.204'),
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(49047, 1662, 7607, 'submit_time', '2020-03-03 05:07:07'),
(49048, 1662, 7607, 'submit_ip', '117.228.213.45'),
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(49050, 1662, 7608, 'your-name', 'yogesh desai'),
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(49054, 1662, 7608, 'submit_ip', '122.169.51.111'),
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(49056, 2456, 7609, 'your-name', 'Sanjay '),
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(49062, 29, 7610, 'text-604', 'Eric Jones'),
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(49502, 29, 7679, 'your-message', 'Pl connect '),
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(49509, 28, 7680, 'your-message', 'I want to know the subscription  plan  and  also  fundamental  analysis. '),
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(49541, 28, 7685, 'your-message', 'Want to partner with your esteemed organization for pms etc.  kindly call back urgent '),
(49542, 28, 7685, 'submit_time', '2020-03-05 06:22:55'),
(49543, 28, 7685, 'submit_ip', '122.181.218.53'),
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(49548, 28, 7686, 'your-message', 'Dear Sirs, \r\n\r\nWe are SEBI RIAs and are exploring possibilities of on boarding our clients onto your CCP strategy. Kindly put us in touch with the appropriate contact within your organization. \r\n\r\nWarm regards\r\nVivek'),
(49549, 28, 7686, 'submit_time', '2020-03-05 06:35:24'),
(49550, 28, 7686, 'submit_ip', '223.186.104.169'),
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(49554, 29, 7687, 'tel-299', '9810175349'),
(49555, 29, 7687, 'your-message', 'Hi - am interested in your PMS. Pls advise.'),
(49556, 29, 7687, 'submit_time', '2020-03-05 06:46:16'),
(49557, 29, 7687, 'submit_ip', '146.196.33.185'),
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(49559, 29, 7688, 'text-604', 'Kumar Ashwani'),
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(49561, 29, 7688, 'tel-299', '+14807660367'),
(49562, 29, 7688, 'your-message', 'Can you  please share the brochure for pms'),
(49563, 29, 7688, 'submit_time', '2020-03-05 07:16:07'),
(49564, 29, 7688, 'submit_ip', '199.116.169.87'),
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(49605, 28, 7695, 'your-message', 'Hi Sir\r\nDo you also invest in Un listed entities'),
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(49607, 28, 7695, 'submit_ip', '115.96.70.131'),
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(49618, 29, 7697, 'your-message', 'Go Here To Review Our Service\r\n\r\nHi,\r\n\r\nInteractivewise is a website that collects opinions from webmasters/bloggers/business owners for Bing, Bluehost, etc.\r\n\r\nWe are looking for people like you to test our website.\r\n\r\nThey spend *,000,000,000 dollars each year collecting data, and then improving their products. \r\nInteractivewise pays to each member $ *** daily for their opinions.\r\n\r\nInterested? Click here: https://www.interactivewise.com/cashsurvey\r\n\r\nLooking forward to hearing from you,\r\n\r\nPatricia Abel\r\n\r\n^^^^^^^^\r\nUnsubscribe: https://www.interactivewise.com/unsubscribe\r\n'),
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(50223, 1662, 7791, 'your-name', 'Girish'),
(50224, 1662, 7791, 'your-email', 'girishgargdce1@gmail.com'),
(50225, 1662, 7791, 'tel-309', '9013001288'),
(50226, 1662, 7791, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 05:39:28'),
(50227, 1662, 7791, 'submit_ip', '223.226.98.11'),
(50228, 29, 7792, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50229, 29, 7792, 'text-604', 'Sanjay '),
(50230, 29, 7792, 'email-510', 'thakkarsg@gmail.com'),
(50231, 29, 7792, 'tel-299', '8512077373'),
(50232, 29, 7792, 'your-message', 'Send me more details on services.'),
(50233, 29, 7792, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 05:41:19'),
(50234, 29, 7792, 'submit_ip', '106.202.82.28'),
(50235, 1662, 7793, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50236, 1662, 7793, 'your-name', 'Sanjay '),
(50237, 1662, 7793, 'your-email', 'thakkarsg@gmail.com'),
(50238, 1662, 7793, 'tel-309', '8512077373'),
(50239, 1662, 7793, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 05:45:50'),
(50240, 1662, 7793, 'submit_ip', '106.202.82.28'),
(50241, 29, 7794, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50242, 29, 7794, 'text-604', 'Lakshminarayanan Venkataraman'),
(50243, 29, 7794, 'email-510', 'lvenkata1961@gmail.com'),
(50244, 29, 7794, 'tel-299', '+267 72311337'),
(50245, 29, 7794, 'your-message', 'Would like to know more about your model portfolio'),
(50246, 29, 7794, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 05:52:57'),
(50247, 29, 7794, 'submit_ip', '168.167.80.105'),
(50248, 2456, 7795, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50249, 2456, 7795, 'your-name', 'Lakshminarayanan Venkataraman'),
(50250, 2456, 7795, 'your-email', 'lvenkata1961@gmail.com'),
(50251, 2456, 7795, 'tel-971', '+267 72311337'),
(50252, 2456, 7795, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 05:57:52'),
(50253, 2456, 7795, 'submit_ip', '168.167.80.105'),
(50254, 1662, 7796, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50255, 1662, 7796, 'your-name', 'Nayan D Agrawal'),
(50256, 1662, 7796, 'your-email', 'nda27101996@gmail.com'),
(50257, 1662, 7796, 'tel-309', '7016877952'),
(50258, 1662, 7796, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:05:05'),
(50259, 1662, 7796, 'submit_ip', '47.247.16.189'),
(50260, 29, 7797, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50261, 29, 7797, 'text-604', 'SHISHIRANSHU KUMAR'),
(50262, 29, 7797, 'email-510', 'shishiranshu@yahoo.co.in'),
(50263, 29, 7797, 'tel-299', '8447182451'),
(50264, 29, 7797, 'your-message', 'Interested in your CPP portfolio investment. Presently i am not in India so you can contact through e mail or whatsup 8447182451. I have read all three books mentioned on this site so i am convinced in your CPP portfolio.Thanks\r\n'),
(50265, 29, 7797, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:12:13'),
(50266, 29, 7797, 'submit_ip', '176.52.163.180'),
(50267, 28, 7798, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50268, 28, 7798, 'text-996', 'Nitin Agarwal'),
(50269, 28, 7798, 'email-563', 'agarwalnitin55@gmail.com'),
(50270, 28, 7798, 'tel-182', '09820041747'),
(50271, 28, 7798, 'your-message', 'Would like to invest in your both PMS , please contact'),
(50272, 28, 7798, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:14:34'),
(50273, 28, 7798, 'submit_ip', '45.117.110.177'),
(50274, 1662, 7799, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50275, 1662, 7799, 'your-name', 'Nitin Agarwal'),
(50276, 1662, 7799, 'your-email', 'agarwalnitin55@gmail.com'),
(50277, 1662, 7799, 'tel-309', '09820141747'),
(50278, 1662, 7799, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:15:23'),
(50279, 1662, 7799, 'submit_ip', '45.117.110.177'),
(50280, 1662, 7800, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50281, 1662, 7800, 'your-name', 'Amit R'),
(50282, 1662, 7800, 'your-email', 'rajboscodit@hotmail.com'),
(50283, 1662, 7800, 'tel-309', '8016776616'),
(50284, 1662, 7800, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:17:09'),
(50285, 1662, 7800, 'submit_ip', '139.5.252.112'),
(50286, 29, 7801, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50287, 29, 7801, 'text-604', 'Sham Kole'),
(50288, 29, 7801, 'email-510', 'shamkole@yahoo.com'),
(50289, 29, 7801, 'tel-299', '9823900297'),
(50290, 29, 7801, 'your-message', 'I intend to join your group as invester&gt; Kindly let me know the terms n conditions and fee structure, modalities of payment etc. Thanx in advance.'),
(50291, 29, 7801, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:20:07'),
(50292, 29, 7801, 'submit_ip', '14.139.120.76'),
(50293, 1662, 7802, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50294, 1662, 7802, 'your-name', 'Amit R'),
(50295, 1662, 7802, 'your-email', 'rajboscodit@hotmail.com'),
(50296, 1662, 7802, 'tel-309', '8016776616'),
(50297, 1662, 7802, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:22:11'),
(50298, 1662, 7802, 'submit_ip', '139.5.252.112'),
(50299, 28, 7803, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50300, 28, 7803, 'text-996', 'Tapas Kumar chanda'),
(50301, 28, 7803, 'email-563', 'tapascgand01@gmail.com'),
(50302, 28, 7803, 'tel-182', '8908662582'),
(50303, 28, 7803, 'your-message', 'Contact me.'),
(50304, 28, 7803, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:26:05'),
(50305, 28, 7803, 'submit_ip', '49.14.165.85'),
(50306, 29, 7804, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50307, 29, 7804, 'text-604', 'Joseph'),
(50308, 29, 7804, 'email-510', 'joseph.anthony@gmail.com'),
(50309, 29, 7804, 'tel-299', '9820500041'),
(50310, 29, 7804, 'your-message', 'Please call me. I\'d like to understand more about the PMS you offer.\r\nIn case I do not answer my phone, kindly drop me a message and I\'ll call back.'),
(50311, 29, 7804, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:45:42'),
(50312, 29, 7804, 'submit_ip', '180.151.143.226'),
(50313, 29, 7805, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50314, 29, 7805, 'text-604', 'Onkar Singh '),
(50315, 29, 7805, 'email-510', 'dronkarkahlon@gmail.com'),
(50316, 29, 7805, 'tel-299', '9935363505'),
(50317, 29, 7805, 'your-message', 'Want to invest, need someone to contact and help '),
(50318, 29, 7805, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:54:28'),
(50319, 29, 7805, 'submit_ip', '122.163.145.209'),
(50320, 1662, 7806, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50321, 1662, 7806, 'your-name', 'Siddhesh Jain'),
(50322, 1662, 7806, 'your-email', 'sharerstar@gmail.com'),
(50323, 1662, 7806, 'tel-309', '9821381323'),
(50324, 1662, 7806, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 06:56:03'),
(50325, 1662, 7806, 'submit_ip', '27.106.116.245'),
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(50327, 1662, 7807, 'your-name', 'uvawupakivewe'),
(50328, 1662, 7807, 'your-email', 'ohoqahic@fhdgse.sadsdskfm.com'),
(50329, 1662, 7807, 'tel-309', '83287484657'),
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(50331, 1662, 7807, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:19:40'),
(50332, 1662, 7807, 'submit_ip', '134.249.233.205'),
(50333, 2456, 7808, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50334, 2456, 7808, 'your-name', 'Gunjan Kumar'),
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(50337, 2456, 7808, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:20:18'),
(50338, 2456, 7808, 'submit_ip', '86.23.60.8'),
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(50340, 1662, 7809, 'your-name', 'Sudeep'),
(50341, 1662, 7809, 'your-email', 'sudipmalik123@gmail.com'),
(50342, 1662, 7809, 'tel-309', '9748327477'),
(50343, 1662, 7809, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:26:05'),
(50344, 1662, 7809, 'submit_ip', '121.243.13.240'),
(50345, 1662, 7810, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50346, 1662, 7810, 'your-name', 'Mohanamurugan Esakky'),
(50347, 1662, 7810, 'your-email', 'mohanamurugan@gmail.com'),
(50348, 1662, 7810, 'tel-309', '9880193957'),
(50349, 1662, 7810, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:31:14'),
(50350, 1662, 7810, 'submit_ip', '106.51.234.188'),
(50351, 1662, 7811, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50352, 1662, 7811, 'your-name', 'Chandrashekar Raju'),
(50353, 1662, 7811, 'your-email', 'kushalraju.d@gmail.com'),
(50354, 1662, 7811, 'tel-309', '09886326862'),
(50355, 1662, 7811, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:41:06'),
(50356, 1662, 7811, 'submit_ip', '49.206.6.228'),
(50357, 1662, 7812, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50358, 1662, 7812, 'your-name', 'Dhiraj'),
(50359, 1662, 7812, 'your-email', 'zdeejay@yahoo.com'),
(50360, 1662, 7812, 'tel-309', '8197309263'),
(50361, 1662, 7812, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:42:51'),
(50362, 1662, 7812, 'submit_ip', '223.229.236.21'),
(50363, 1662, 7813, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50364, 1662, 7813, 'your-name', 'iaevotub'),
(50365, 1662, 7813, 'your-email', 'efesou@fhdgse.sadsdskfm.com'),
(50366, 1662, 7813, 'tel-309', '86917525381'),
(50367, 1662, 7813, 'submit', 'Send'),
(50368, 1662, 7813, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:43:36'),
(50369, 1662, 7813, 'submit_ip', '134.249.233.205'),
(50370, 2456, 7814, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50371, 2456, 7814, 'your-name', 'Chaitanya'),
(50372, 2456, 7814, 'your-email', 'chaitanya.anand.90@gmail.com'),
(50373, 2456, 7814, 'tel-971', '9663812215'),
(50374, 2456, 7814, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:52:08'),
(50375, 2456, 7814, 'submit_ip', '49.205.221.118'),
(50376, 29, 7815, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50377, 29, 7815, 'text-604', 'Sidharth Joshi'),
(50378, 29, 7815, 'email-510', 'sidjyot@yahoo.com'),
(50379, 29, 7815, 'tel-299', '+65-93846761'),
(50380, 29, 7815, 'your-message', 'would like to explore PMS'),
(50381, 29, 7815, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 07:54:38'),
(50382, 29, 7815, 'submit_ip', '121.6.248.221'),
(50383, 29, 7816, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50384, 29, 7816, 'text-604', 'satish kokate'),
(50385, 29, 7816, 'email-510', 'kokatesatish@gmail.com'),
(50386, 29, 7816, 'tel-299', '9422870188'),
(50387, 29, 7816, 'your-message', 'I RUN A SMALL SELF HELP GROUP INVESTING AROUND 2000/MONTH HAVING 12 MEMBERS IN OUR GROUP HAVE SAVED AROUND 14 LACS TILL NOW AND WE WANT TO INVEST THIS AMOUNT IN THE MARKET FOR 15 YEARS COULD YOU HELP ME?'),
(50388, 29, 7816, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:08:10'),
(50389, 29, 7816, 'submit_ip', '59.88.176.83'),
(50390, 28, 7817, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50391, 28, 7817, 'text-996', 'Neel Naik'),
(50392, 28, 7817, 'email-563', 'neelinvests@gmail.com'),
(50393, 28, 7817, 'tel-182', '+971561831447'),
(50394, 28, 7817, 'your-message', 'I\'m interested in your PMS products. Give me a buzz when you can and we can set up a call or meet for a quick chat. Thanks'),
(50395, 28, 7817, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:10:09'),
(50396, 28, 7817, 'submit_ip', '86.97.45.25'),
(50397, 2456, 7818, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50398, 2456, 7818, 'your-name', 'Shashank Argekar '),
(50399, 2456, 7818, 'your-email', 'shashank@wessfins.com'),
(50400, 2456, 7818, 'tel-971', '9820786873'),
(50401, 2456, 7818, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:18:14'),
(50402, 2456, 7818, 'submit_ip', '49.36.0.32'),
(50403, 2456, 7819, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50404, 2456, 7819, 'your-name', 'Yogesh Chintaman Kulkarni'),
(50405, 2456, 7819, 'your-email', 'yogesh.royal@gmail.com'),
(50406, 2456, 7819, 'tel-971', '9422007670'),
(50407, 2456, 7819, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:22:04'),
(50408, 2456, 7819, 'submit_ip', '116.75.20.197'),
(50409, 28, 7820, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50410, 28, 7820, 'text-996', 'Yogesh Chintaman Kulkarni'),
(50411, 28, 7820, 'email-563', 'yogesh.royal@gmail.com'),
(50412, 28, 7820, 'tel-182', '9422007670'),
(50413, 28, 7820, 'your-message', ''),
(50414, 28, 7820, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:24:58'),
(50415, 28, 7820, 'submit_ip', '116.75.20.197'),
(50416, 29, 7821, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50417, 29, 7821, 'text-604', 'Hrishikesh'),
(50418, 29, 7821, 'email-510', 'rishizp@gmail.com'),
(50419, 29, 7821, 'tel-299', '9823355045'),
(50420, 29, 7821, 'your-message', 'Hi, i am retail investor and would like to know how you can help me in equity investment.thanks\r\nLooking forward for your reply. Thanks\r\nWith regards,\r\nHrishikesh'),
(50421, 29, 7821, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:30:56'),
(50422, 29, 7821, 'submit_ip', '42.108.254.147'),
(50423, 29, 7822, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50424, 29, 7822, 'text-604', 'Hemant'),
(50425, 29, 7822, 'email-510', 'hemant.shah5627@yahoo.com'),
(50426, 29, 7822, 'tel-299', '9327004920'),
(50427, 29, 7822, 'your-message', 'Guidance'),
(50428, 29, 7822, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:40:12'),
(50429, 29, 7822, 'submit_ip', '49.34.43.215'),
(50430, 2456, 7823, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50431, 2456, 7823, 'your-name', 'Kenny'),
(50432, 2456, 7823, 'your-email', 'kenny1924@gmail.com'),
(50433, 2456, 7823, 'tel-971', '3122401120'),
(50434, 2456, 7823, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:46:59'),
(50435, 2456, 7823, 'submit_ip', '67.167.197.186'),
(50436, 1662, 7824, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50437, 1662, 7824, 'your-name', 'chandragupta dembla'),
(50438, 1662, 7824, 'your-email', 'chandru.dembla@gmail.com'),
(50439, 1662, 7824, 'tel-309', '9820206901'),
(50440, 1662, 7824, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:52:28'),
(50441, 1662, 7824, 'submit_ip', '103.250.37.72'),
(50442, 29, 7825, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50443, 29, 7825, 'text-604', 'Bharat'),
(50444, 29, 7825, 'email-510', 'bharatgupta@email.com'),
(50445, 29, 7825, 'tel-299', '9167055555'),
(50446, 29, 7825, 'your-message', 'Hi, will appreciate a call back. I\'d like to evaluate your PMS for my investment. Thanks'),
(50447, 29, 7825, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:52:44'),
(50448, 29, 7825, 'submit_ip', '49.45.133.140'),
(50449, 1662, 7826, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50450, 1662, 7826, 'your-name', 'chandragupta dembla'),
(50451, 1662, 7826, 'your-email', 'chandru.dembla@gmail.com'),
(50452, 1662, 7826, 'tel-309', '9820206901'),
(50453, 1662, 7826, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:53:11'),
(50454, 1662, 7826, 'submit_ip', '103.250.37.72'),
(50455, 2456, 7827, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50456, 2456, 7827, 'your-name', 'Siraj Chakrabarti'),
(50457, 2456, 7827, 'your-email', 'siraj.chakrabarti@gmail.com'),
(50458, 2456, 7827, 'tel-971', '90095766'),
(50459, 2456, 7827, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:54:59'),
(50460, 2456, 7827, 'submit_ip', '58.96.211.204'),
(50461, 2456, 7828, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50462, 2456, 7828, 'your-name', 'Siraj Chakrabarti'),
(50463, 2456, 7828, 'your-email', 'siraj.chakrabarti@gmail.com'),
(50464, 2456, 7828, 'tel-971', '90095766'),
(50465, 2456, 7828, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 08:55:32'),
(50466, 2456, 7828, 'submit_ip', '58.96.211.204'),
(50467, 2456, 7829, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50468, 2456, 7829, 'your-name', 'nam'),
(50469, 2456, 7829, 'your-email', 'naamhs@gmail.com'),
(50470, 2456, 7829, 'tel-971', '9567555255'),
(50471, 2456, 7829, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:17:24'),
(50472, 2456, 7829, 'submit_ip', '86.98.41.210'),
(50473, 1662, 7830, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50474, 1662, 7830, 'your-name', 'Niranjan Gajanan Sakhalkar'),
(50475, 1662, 7830, 'your-email', 'niranjan.sakhalkar@gmail.com'),
(50476, 1662, 7830, 'tel-309', '08898871186'),
(50477, 1662, 7830, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:23:21'),
(50478, 1662, 7830, 'submit_ip', '115.96.99.241'),
(50479, 1662, 7831, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50480, 1662, 7831, 'your-name', 'dakshin pali'),
(50481, 1662, 7831, 'your-email', 'chandru.dembla@gmail.com'),
(50482, 1662, 7831, 'tel-309', '9820206901'),
(50483, 1662, 7831, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:31:18'),
(50484, 1662, 7831, 'submit_ip', '103.250.37.72'),
(50485, 1662, 7832, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50486, 1662, 7832, 'your-name', 'chandragupta dembla'),
(50487, 1662, 7832, 'your-email', 'chandru.dembla@gmail.com'),
(50488, 1662, 7832, 'tel-309', '9820206901'),
(50489, 1662, 7832, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:32:27'),
(50490, 1662, 7832, 'submit_ip', '103.250.37.72'),
(50491, 29, 7833, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50492, 29, 7833, 'text-604', 'chandragupta dembla'),
(50493, 29, 7833, 'email-510', 'chandru.dembla@gmail.com'),
(50494, 29, 7833, 'tel-299', '9820206901'),
(50495, 29, 7833, 'your-message', ''),
(50496, 29, 7833, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:33:37'),
(50497, 29, 7833, 'submit_ip', '103.250.37.72'),
(50498, 29, 7834, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50499, 29, 7834, 'text-604', 'Dinesh Kumar Chaudhary'),
(50500, 29, 7834, 'email-510', 'dkcrpl@gmail.com'),
(50501, 29, 7834, 'tel-299', '7042560116'),
(50502, 29, 7834, 'your-message', 'Interested in your pms'),
(50503, 29, 7834, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:38:18'),
(50504, 29, 7834, 'submit_ip', '106.223.101.117'),
(50505, 28, 7835, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50506, 28, 7835, 'text-996', 'ADITI PATEL'),
(50507, 28, 7835, 'email-563', 'aditipatel1190@gmail.com'),
(50508, 28, 7835, 'tel-182', ''),
(50509, 28, 7835, 'your-message', 'Dear sir,\r\nWe are AMFI registered Mutual Fund Distributors. One of our US based NRI client wants to invest in PMS in india. Let us know whether you accept the investments from US based NRI in any of your two stretagies viz CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS or LITTLE CHAMPS PMS\r\nIf yes, then what will be the requirements for us to empanel with you ?\r\nAnd what are the documentation and other requirements for our client to invest'),
(50510, 28, 7835, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:47:41'),
(50511, 28, 7835, 'submit_ip', '27.4.36.125'),
(50512, 28, 7836, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50513, 28, 7836, 'text-996', 'Vishal Pandit'),
(50514, 28, 7836, 'email-563', 'vdpandit@gmail.com'),
(50515, 28, 7836, 'tel-182', '09867732589'),
(50516, 28, 7836, 'your-message', 'Hi Professional colleague\r\n\r\nI am vishal pandit ; a fan of Marcellus investment philosophy.\r\n\r\nI met Saurabh and Rakshit in some event in the past.\r\n\r\nWas honoured to host Rakshit at my office for a very enlightening meeting on the marcellus philosophy.\r\n\r\nI have started a vertical apart from my real estate advisory to cater to my HNI clients for investment in equities.\r\n\r\nI wanna come on board with marcellus as a channel partner ; please contact me , so i can refer you my first client.\r\n\r\nthank you \r\nregards\r\n\r\nVishal'),
(50517, 28, 7836, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 09:55:26'),
(50518, 28, 7836, 'submit_ip', '45.112.145.57'),
(50519, 1662, 7837, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50520, 1662, 7837, 'your-name', 'karan maheshwary'),
(50521, 1662, 7837, 'your-email', 'karan.maheshwary23@gmail.com'),
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(50532, 29, 7839, 'text-604', 'Brian Lobo'),
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(50535, 29, 7839, 'your-message', 'considering investment options via IIFL when my friend suggested I reach out to Marcellus.\r\n\r\nLooking for investment opportunities. \r\n- Brian'),
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(50551, 29, 7842, 'text-604', 'PATEL VIREN DAHYABHAI '),
(50552, 29, 7842, 'email-510', 'vdcheng92@gmail.com'),
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(50554, 29, 7842, 'your-message', 'I Am Interested In CCP PMS. So Please Contact Me'),
(50555, 29, 7842, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 10:46:17'),
(50556, 29, 7842, 'submit_ip', '114.31.156.144'),
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(50561, 1662, 7843, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:02:28'),
(50562, 1662, 7843, 'submit_ip', '49.205.217.228'),
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(50564, 28, 7844, 'text-996', 'Parthajit Kayal'),
(50565, 28, 7844, 'email-563', 'parthajitkayal@gmail.com'),
(50566, 28, 7844, 'tel-182', '9962371740'),
(50567, 28, 7844, 'your-message', 'I mainly invest through the mutual fund and little bit through direct stocks. Most of my savings is already invested. How can I get your service? I do not know much about PMS and would love to get your help.'),
(50568, 28, 7844, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:07:34'),
(50569, 28, 7844, 'submit_ip', '49.37.194.189'),
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(50571, 1662, 7845, 'your-name', 'PAWAN GUPTA'),
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(50577, 2456, 7846, 'your-name', 'George Joshu'),
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(50580, 2456, 7846, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:21:43'),
(50581, 2456, 7846, 'submit_ip', '171.51.223.91'),
(50582, 29, 7847, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50583, 29, 7847, 'text-604', 'Arun Koshi'),
(50584, 29, 7847, 'email-510', 'arunkoshi@live.com'),
(50585, 29, 7847, 'tel-299', '9972533366'),
(50586, 29, 7847, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\n\r\nI would like to understand how to go about investing in the consistent compounders portfolio\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nArun'),
(50587, 29, 7847, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:27:22'),
(50588, 29, 7847, 'submit_ip', '27.5.95.251'),
(50589, 29, 7848, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50590, 29, 7848, 'text-604', 'Dhiraj'),
(50591, 29, 7848, 'email-510', 'zdeejay@yahoo.com'),
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(50593, 29, 7848, 'your-message', ''),
(50594, 29, 7848, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:44:42'),
(50595, 29, 7848, 'submit_ip', '122.170.189.242'),
(50596, 2456, 7849, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50597, 2456, 7849, 'your-name', 'Narendra khadse'),
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(50600, 2456, 7849, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:59:17'),
(50601, 2456, 7849, 'submit_ip', '42.111.222.37'),
(50602, 2456, 7850, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50603, 2456, 7850, 'your-name', 'Vishal Gupta'),
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(50605, 2456, 7850, 'tel-971', '9769032540'),
(50606, 2456, 7850, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 11:59:51'),
(50607, 2456, 7850, 'submit_ip', '124.66.173.124'),
(50608, 29, 7851, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50609, 29, 7851, 'text-604', 'Vishal Gupta'),
(50610, 29, 7851, 'email-510', 'vishalgupta2212@gmail.com'),
(50611, 29, 7851, 'tel-299', '9769032540'),
(50612, 29, 7851, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurabh,\r\nI saw your presentation at the Motilal conference and was very impressed. I am working with Softbank Vision fund, was with TPG Capital earlier, would love to meet you and learn more about the two funds. Let me know whenever convenient for you.\r\nBest regards,\r\nVishal\r\n9769032540\r\nvishalgupta2212@gmail.com'),
(50613, 29, 7851, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 12:02:25'),
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(50616, 1662, 7852, 'your-name', 'AMIT GHARPURE'),
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(50620, 1662, 7852, 'submit_ip', '42.107.89.17'),
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(50622, 1662, 7853, 'your-name', 'shivashankar joshi'),
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(50625, 1662, 7853, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 12:05:35'),
(50626, 1662, 7853, 'submit_ip', '1.186.120.153'),
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(50628, 2456, 7854, 'your-name', 'Jatin Negi'),
(50629, 2456, 7854, 'your-email', 'jatin.pgp16025@iimkashipur.ac.in'),
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(50631, 2456, 7854, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 12:28:34'),
(50632, 2456, 7854, 'submit_ip', '132.154.118.53'),
(50633, 29, 7855, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50634, 29, 7855, 'text-604', 'Narayana '),
(50635, 29, 7855, 'email-510', 'dvvnreddy@gmail.com'),
(50636, 29, 7855, 'tel-299', '9703331491'),
(50637, 29, 7855, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\n\r\nI want to know the details of your pms especially little champs . Please share .\r\n\r\nThanks'),
(50638, 29, 7855, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 12:36:34'),
(50639, 29, 7855, 'submit_ip', '183.83.139.175'),
(50640, 1662, 7856, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50641, 1662, 7856, 'your-name', 'Somak Paul'),
(50642, 1662, 7856, 'your-email', 'glycal@gmail.com'),
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(50644, 1662, 7856, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 12:52:13'),
(50645, 1662, 7856, 'submit_ip', '95.218.142.217'),
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(50647, 1662, 7857, 'your-name', 'Arpit Agarwal'),
(50648, 1662, 7857, 'your-email', 'arpitagarwal619@gmail.com'),
(50649, 1662, 7857, 'tel-309', '09453142977'),
(50650, 1662, 7857, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:12:43'),
(50651, 1662, 7857, 'submit_ip', '27.106.30.105'),
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(50653, 1662, 7858, 'your-name', 'Arpit Agarwal'),
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(50659, 1662, 7859, 'your-name', 'Arpit Agarwal'),
(50660, 1662, 7859, 'your-email', 'arpitagarwal619@gmail.com'),
(50661, 1662, 7859, 'tel-309', '9453142977'),
(50662, 1662, 7859, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:13:06'),
(50663, 1662, 7859, 'submit_ip', '27.106.30.105'),
(50664, 1662, 7860, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50665, 1662, 7860, 'your-name', 'Kaushik Chaudhury'),
(50666, 1662, 7860, 'your-email', 'bhanka70@gmail.com'),
(50667, 1662, 7860, 'tel-309', '7980342566'),
(50668, 1662, 7860, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:22:51'),
(50669, 1662, 7860, 'submit_ip', '47.15.141.217'),
(50670, 28, 7861, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50671, 28, 7861, 'text-996', 'Mr Deepak Shingadia'),
(50672, 28, 7861, 'email-563', 'shingadiad@yahoo.com'),
(50673, 28, 7861, 'tel-182', '0044 7966067617'),
(50674, 28, 7861, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI would like to invest in your funds. Please can you advise on whether you support foreign investors into the fund.  I assume I need a PAN number which I can apply for, over and above this are there any further requirements?\r\nThanks\r\n\r\nDeepak\r\n'),
(50675, 28, 7861, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:26:56'),
(50676, 28, 7861, 'submit_ip', '79.188.79.34'),
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(50678, 2456, 7862, 'your-name', 'Mradul'),
(50679, 2456, 7862, 'your-email', 'mradul.dhakad@gmail.com'),
(50680, 2456, 7862, 'tel-971', '7354699365'),
(50681, 2456, 7862, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:47:45'),
(50682, 2456, 7862, 'submit_ip', '1.186.79.155'),
(50683, 1662, 7863, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50684, 1662, 7863, 'your-name', 'MP Kamath'),
(50685, 1662, 7863, 'your-email', 'kamathmp@hotmail.com'),
(50686, 1662, 7863, 'tel-309', '9820446263'),
(50687, 1662, 7863, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 13:56:14'),
(50688, 1662, 7863, 'submit_ip', '120.60.19.0'),
(50689, 1662, 7864, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50690, 1662, 7864, 'your-name', 'kodurirajarao@gmail.com'),
(50691, 1662, 7864, 'your-email', 'kodurirajarao@gmail.com'),
(50692, 1662, 7864, 'tel-309', '9652923249'),
(50693, 1662, 7864, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 14:01:49'),
(50694, 1662, 7864, 'submit_ip', '115.98.254.173'),
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(50696, 2456, 7865, 'your-name', 'Ajay'),
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(50699, 2456, 7865, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 14:30:15'),
(50700, 2456, 7865, 'submit_ip', '101.118.36.105'),
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(50702, 2456, 7866, 'your-name', 'Seju Davis'),
(50703, 2456, 7866, 'your-email', 'sejudavis@hotmail.com'),
(50704, 2456, 7866, 'tel-971', '00 91 96334 02561'),
(50705, 2456, 7866, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 14:44:44'),
(50706, 2456, 7866, 'submit_ip', '178.80.119.4'),
(50707, 1662, 7867, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50708, 1662, 7867, 'your-name', 'Parth Damani'),
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(50711, 1662, 7867, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 14:56:43'),
(50712, 1662, 7867, 'submit_ip', '223.184.185.108'),
(50713, 1662, 7868, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50714, 1662, 7868, 'your-name', 'Parth Damani'),
(50715, 1662, 7868, 'your-email', 'damaniparth@gmail.com'),
(50716, 1662, 7868, 'tel-309', '9819796739'),
(50717, 1662, 7868, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 14:57:55'),
(50718, 1662, 7868, 'submit_ip', '223.184.185.108'),
(50719, 1662, 7869, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50720, 1662, 7869, 'your-name', 'Ramesh Radhakrishnan '),
(50721, 1662, 7869, 'your-email', 'rkramesh@yahoo.com'),
(50722, 1662, 7869, 'tel-309', '9962694944'),
(50723, 1662, 7869, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 15:03:20'),
(50724, 1662, 7869, 'submit_ip', '27.5.73.184'),
(50725, 1662, 7870, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50726, 1662, 7870, 'your-name', 'Ramesh Radhakrishnan '),
(50727, 1662, 7870, 'your-email', 'rkramesh@yahoo.com'),
(50728, 1662, 7870, 'tel-309', '9962694944'),
(50729, 1662, 7870, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 15:03:22'),
(50730, 1662, 7870, 'submit_ip', '27.5.73.184'),
(50731, 1662, 7871, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50732, 1662, 7871, 'your-name', 'Hari kanth peddi'),
(50733, 1662, 7871, 'your-email', 'harikanth77@yahoo.com'),
(50734, 1662, 7871, 'tel-309', '9848025559'),
(50735, 1662, 7871, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 15:28:16'),
(50736, 1662, 7871, 'submit_ip', '183.83.247.8'),
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(50738, 1662, 7872, 'your-name', 'Hari kanth peddi'),
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(50741, 1662, 7872, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 15:28:42'),
(50742, 1662, 7872, 'submit_ip', '183.83.247.8'),
(50743, 2456, 7873, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50744, 2456, 7873, 'your-name', 'Hari kanth'),
(50745, 2456, 7873, 'your-email', 'harikanth77@yahoo.com'),
(50746, 2456, 7873, 'tel-971', '9848025559'),
(50747, 2456, 7873, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 15:42:24'),
(50748, 2456, 7873, 'submit_ip', '183.83.247.8'),
(50749, 2456, 7874, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50750, 2456, 7874, 'your-name', 'gaurav'),
(50751, 2456, 7874, 'your-email', 'cagauravsingla9@gmail.com'),
(50752, 2456, 7874, 'tel-971', '9803258535'),
(50753, 2456, 7874, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:00:41'),
(50754, 2456, 7874, 'submit_ip', '182.69.162.60'),
(50755, 29, 7875, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50756, 29, 7875, 'text-604', 'Venkatesh'),
(50757, 29, 7875, 'email-510', 'venkatesh.nagaraj@gmail.com'),
(50758, 29, 7875, 'tel-299', '9880016523'),
(50759, 29, 7875, 'your-message', 'Liked the concept. Do you guys have a lesser ticket for opening PMS. Is 50L must?'),
(50760, 29, 7875, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:10:57'),
(50761, 29, 7875, 'submit_ip', '103.5.132.21'),
(50762, 29, 7876, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50763, 29, 7876, 'text-604', 'Arun Singh'),
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(50765, 29, 7876, 'tel-299', '9876332419'),
(50766, 29, 7876, 'your-message', ''),
(50767, 29, 7876, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:21:42'),
(50768, 29, 7876, 'submit_ip', '103.13.105.0'),
(50769, 29, 7877, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50770, 29, 7877, 'text-604', 'AJAY GAIKWAD'),
(50771, 29, 7877, 'email-510', 'gaikwadajayb@gmail.com'),
(50772, 29, 7877, 'tel-299', '09011177199'),
(50773, 29, 7877, 'your-message', ''),
(50774, 29, 7877, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:35:30'),
(50775, 29, 7877, 'submit_ip', '148.64.5.60'),
(50776, 2456, 7878, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50777, 2456, 7878, 'your-name', 'Sudhanshu Shekhar '),
(50778, 2456, 7878, 'your-email', 'shekhar.ism@gmail.com'),
(50779, 2456, 7878, 'tel-971', '8197638502'),
(50780, 2456, 7878, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:48:23'),
(50781, 2456, 7878, 'submit_ip', '47.30.221.189'),
(50782, 1662, 7879, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50783, 1662, 7879, 'your-name', 'Tarun Sharma'),
(50784, 1662, 7879, 'your-email', 'tarun8_sharma@yahoo.co.in'),
(50785, 1662, 7879, 'tel-309', '9582940540'),
(50786, 1662, 7879, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 16:52:42'),
(50787, 1662, 7879, 'submit_ip', '110.225.83.159'),
(50788, 2456, 7880, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50789, 2456, 7880, 'your-name', 'NARAYANASWAMY ESWARAN'),
(50790, 2456, 7880, 'your-email', 'enswamy@gmail.com'),
(50791, 2456, 7880, 'tel-971', '00971504591678'),
(50792, 2456, 7880, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:03:44'),
(50793, 2456, 7880, 'submit_ip', '92.97.27.223'),
(50794, 28, 7881, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50795, 28, 7881, 'text-996', 'NARAYANASWAMY ESWARAN'),
(50796, 28, 7881, 'email-563', 'enswamy@gmail.com'),
(50797, 28, 7881, 'tel-182', '00971504591678'),
(50798, 28, 7881, 'your-message', 'I would like to open a PMS account with you. Pls call or e mail details on Monday'),
(50799, 28, 7881, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:04:57'),
(50800, 28, 7881, 'submit_ip', '92.97.27.223'),
(50801, 2456, 7882, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50802, 2456, 7882, 'your-name', 'Surya Prakash Mantha'),
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(50804, 2456, 7882, 'tel-971', '09848308962'),
(50805, 2456, 7882, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:06:51'),
(50806, 2456, 7882, 'submit_ip', '183.82.255.166'),
(50807, 29, 7883, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50808, 29, 7883, 'text-604', 'karan batra'),
(50809, 29, 7883, 'email-510', 'batrakaran@hotmail.com'),
(50810, 29, 7883, 'tel-299', '9996631576'),
(50811, 29, 7883, 'your-message', ''),
(50812, 29, 7883, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:10:48'),
(50813, 29, 7883, 'submit_ip', '117.97.153.183'),
(50814, 1662, 7884, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50815, 1662, 7884, 'your-name', 'neerav rajvansh'),
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(50817, 1662, 7884, 'tel-309', '7983174260'),
(50818, 1662, 7884, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:28:43'),
(50819, 1662, 7884, 'submit_ip', '139.167.224.179'),
(50820, 28, 7885, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50821, 28, 7885, 'text-996', 'Sandeep monga'),
(50822, 28, 7885, 'email-563', 'monga.ntpc@gmail.com'),
(50823, 28, 7885, 'tel-182', '8894774444'),
(50824, 28, 7885, 'your-message', 'I want lil champs PMS details regrdng charges n time period etc. \r\nPls tell\r\nRegards'),
(50825, 28, 7885, 'submit_time', '2020-03-07 17:30:31'),
(50826, 28, 7885, 'submit_ip', '106.202.99.207'),
(50827, 28, 7886, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(50828, 28, 7886, 'text-996', 'Sandeep monga'),
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(50972, 29, 7908, 'text-604', 'SUYASH KAPOOR'),
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(51179, 29, 7940, 'your-message', 'I am interested in investments and would like to understand your product offerings to investors.'),
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(51204, 29, 7944, 'your-message', 'Interested to know details about both your PMS schemes. Kindly forward details for review.'),
(51205, 29, 7944, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 08:40:33'),
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(51220, 28, 7947, 'text-996', 'KETAN HINGRAJIA'),
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(51223, 28, 7947, 'your-message', 'Want some information about your pms'),
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(51230, 29, 7948, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcellus, I am interested in your PMS service, wanted to know more about the service. '),
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(51234, 29, 7949, 'text-604', 'Hiren Desai'),
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(51237, 29, 7949, 'your-message', 'Interested in little champ pms investment'),
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(51262, 29, 7953, 'your-message', 'I am very impressed with Saurabh Mukherjea talks. Although I am myself CFA, I believe Saurabh can do a fantastic job with investment management. I would love to know the investment minimum ticket size and how can I invest my money with Saurabh.'),
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(51275, 29, 7955, 'your-message', 'I m interested in investing ur little Chapman fund'),
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(51291, 29, 7958, 'text-604', 'ANOOP AGARWAL'),
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(51294, 29, 7958, 'your-message', 'Respected Sir ,\r\nI am interested in joining the PMS Consistent compounders. Kindly assist.\r\nThanks and regards,\r\nDr. Anoop Agarwal'),
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(51296, 29, 7958, 'submit_ip', '122.163.195.187'),
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(51304, 29, 7960, 'text-604', 'Hemant chougule '),
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(51318, 29, 7962, 'text-604', 'ADARSH KUMAR GUPTA'),
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(51321, 29, 7962, 'your-message', 'Looking for efficient pms service'),
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(51328, 29, 7963, 'your-message', 'Pls call me I want to join your subscription services for investment in stock market '),
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(51337, 29, 7965, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(51338, 29, 7965, 'text-604', 'Sanjay S Hiremath'),
(51339, 29, 7965, 'email-510', 'sanjayajeet@gmail.com'),
(51340, 29, 7965, 'tel-299', '9449148742'),
(51341, 29, 7965, 'your-message', 'Sir,\r\nI want to avail Portfolio Management Services of Marcellus.\r\nPlease let me know how to get in touch.'),
(51342, 29, 7965, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 10:41:42'),
(51343, 29, 7965, 'submit_ip', '59.145.201.100'),
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(51373, 29, 7970, 'your-message', 'Sir, I am small investor willing to invest 5 lakhs every year for kids education and retirement. Whether you guys can help me. Please mail me rather than calling. Since I am leaving in Kuwait and I have Indian mobile number only for receiving sms. '),
(51374, 29, 7970, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 11:31:24'),
(51375, 29, 7970, 'submit_ip', '94.128.148.185'),
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(51380, 28, 7971, 'your-message', 'Interested in your offerings'),
(51381, 28, 7971, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 11:34:45'),
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(51393, 29, 7973, 'your-message', 'Would like to understand your products to invest.'),
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(51395, 29, 7973, 'submit_ip', '171.61.78.171'),
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(51408, 29, 7976, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(51409, 29, 7976, 'text-604', 'Kiran Kumar G'),
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(51419, 29, 7977, 'your-message', 'Interested in getting PMS'),
(51420, 29, 7977, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 12:04:08'),
(51421, 29, 7977, 'submit_ip', '106.206.31.77'),
(51422, 1662, 7978, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(51425, 1662, 7978, 'tel-309', '9913986793'),
(51426, 1662, 7978, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 12:15:16'),
(51427, 1662, 7978, 'submit_ip', '49.34.172.1'),
(51428, 29, 7979, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(51429, 29, 7979, 'text-604', 'Kalyan Mukherjee'),
(51430, 29, 7979, 'email-510', 'kalyanm4@gmail.com'),
(51431, 29, 7979, 'tel-299', '7003930772'),
(51432, 29, 7979, 'your-message', 'I want to invest with little champs and consistent compounders. How to initiate the process, please help\r\n'),
(51433, 29, 7979, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 12:15:17'),
(51434, 29, 7979, 'submit_ip', '103.102.116.9'),
(51435, 2456, 7980, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(51439, 2456, 7980, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 12:17:58'),
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(51446, 1662, 7981, 'submit_ip', '106.209.209.44'),
(51447, 29, 7982, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(51448, 29, 7982, 'text-604', 'Dinesh Patel'),
(51449, 29, 7982, 'email-510', 'dinspatel2005@hotmail.com'),
(51450, 29, 7982, 'tel-299', '+97466833256'),
(51451, 29, 7982, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nWish to invest in PMS, need more info to understand entire process.\r\nThanks,\r\nDinesh'),
(51452, 29, 7982, 'submit_time', '2020-03-08 12:26:39'),
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(52296, 29, 8115, 'your-message', 'Hi, can you call and help understand different types of services, min investment amount and other things?\r\nThanks '),
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(52619, 29, 8165, 'your-message', 'Please get in touch with me . I wish to have a conversation regarding investing in your funds.Thanks'),
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(52659, 28, 8171, 'your-message', 'I would like to know more about your PMS products-  i am already a PMS and Mutual fund investor.'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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(54239, 1662, 8417, 'your-name', 'VAibhav Sahni'),
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(54242, 1662, 8417, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 07:10:02'),
(54243, 1662, 8417, 'submit_ip', '220.226.101.233'),
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(54245, 28, 8418, 'text-996', 'Shalin Kapadia'),
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(54248, 28, 8418, 'your-message', 'Dear official,\r\nI want to know your product in depth.\r\nI am a distributor of MFs in surat.\r\nLet me know the empanelment process also.\r\nRegards.'),
(54249, 28, 8418, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 07:27:04'),
(54250, 28, 8418, 'submit_ip', '27.61.223.16'),
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(54252, 29, 8419, 'text-604', 'Sourav Ray'),
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(54254, 29, 8419, 'tel-299', '7685071930'),
(54255, 29, 8419, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nCould you please connect me over phone. If possible I would like to have a talk with Mr Pramod reading vacancies available for sales in Marcellus.\r\nIt would be great to work under pressure and their supervision.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately I have not got the chance of getting Mr Pramod\'s number when I met him last time.\r\n'),
(54256, 29, 8419, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 07:30:37'),
(54257, 29, 8419, 'submit_ip', '47.15.160.203'),
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(54261, 29, 8420, 'tel-299', '9769995404'),
(54262, 29, 8420, 'your-message', 'I am in a Senior Management Role at Asian Paints Limited and am approaching you to start a PMS with your company. Please call back and let me know how to take this forward.'),
(54263, 29, 8420, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 07:44:28'),
(54264, 29, 8420, 'submit_ip', '122.169.64.179'),
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(54266, 28, 8421, 'text-996', 'Anil Patel'),
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(54268, 28, 8421, 'tel-182', '9925242111'),
(54269, 28, 8421, 'your-message', 'I wnat to join as PMS Distributor with you. Kindly let me know the process for the same.'),
(54270, 28, 8421, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 07:53:02'),
(54271, 28, 8421, 'submit_ip', '123.201.226.182'),
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(54288, 29, 8424, 'your-message', 'Portfolio Management'),
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(54304, 29, 8427, 'text-604', 'Akshay Mittal'),
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(54307, 29, 8427, 'your-message', 'Do you have different few structure for direct investor? \r\nAlso, do you have updated (as on 12th Mar 2020) returns of your two strategies? '),
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(54391, 2456, 8441, 'your-name', 'dhiraj'),
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(54401, 1662, 8442, 'submit_ip', '106.222.11.168'),
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(54404, 29, 8443, 'email-510', '1ckiran99@gmail.com'),
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(54406, 29, 8443, 'your-message', 'What will the little champs convey to small investors with 10lac over 10-15years on return basis?'),
(54407, 29, 8443, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 10:52:24'),
(54408, 29, 8443, 'submit_ip', '45.118.72.237'),
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(54410, 29, 8444, 'text-604', 'Gladstone'),
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(54412, 29, 8444, 'tel-299', '9849992323'),
(54413, 29, 8444, 'your-message', 'Looking to invest please call '),
(54414, 29, 8444, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 11:08:15'),
(54415, 29, 8444, 'submit_ip', '183.83.77.239'),
(54416, 1662, 8445, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(54417, 1662, 8445, 'your-name', 'Dhananjay Bangar'),
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(54421, 1662, 8445, 'submit_ip', '223.189.60.35'),
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(54423, 28, 8446, 'text-996', 'P J Shaji'),
(54424, 28, 8446, 'email-563', 'shajipj@gmail.com'),
(54425, 28, 8446, 'tel-182', '9538882740'),
(54426, 28, 8446, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS schemes. Please share details'),
(54427, 28, 8446, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 11:45:27'),
(54428, 28, 8446, 'submit_ip', '223.237.205.95'),
(54429, 1662, 8447, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(54430, 1662, 8447, 'your-name', 'Parameswaran Eswaran'),
(54431, 1662, 8447, 'your-email', 'pe1705@gmail.com'),
(54432, 1662, 8447, 'tel-309', '00971505592450'),
(54433, 1662, 8447, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 11:46:16'),
(54434, 1662, 8447, 'submit_ip', '195.229.52.16'),
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(54436, 1662, 8448, 'your-name', 'RAJIB ROY'),
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(54438, 1662, 8448, 'tel-309', '09433773484'),
(54439, 1662, 8448, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 11:56:39'),
(54440, 1662, 8448, 'submit_ip', '47.15.220.110'),
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(54446, 1662, 8449, 'submit_ip', '47.15.220.110'),
(54447, 1662, 8450, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(54451, 1662, 8450, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 11:57:20'),
(54452, 1662, 8450, 'submit_ip', '47.15.220.110'),
(54453, 29, 8451, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(54454, 29, 8451, 'text-604', 'Amal Shah'),
(54455, 29, 8451, 'email-510', 'amal@powdergun.com'),
(54456, 29, 8451, 'tel-299', '09867349264'),
(54457, 29, 8451, 'your-message', 'I am based in Mumbai and would like to invest in your PMS - in consistent compounders as well as Little Champs.\r\nCan someone call me and discuss.\r\nAmal'),
(54458, 29, 8451, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 12:05:31'),
(54459, 29, 8451, 'submit_ip', '122.169.62.215'),
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(54461, 29, 8452, 'text-604', 'Sridharan Udayakumar'),
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(54463, 29, 8452, 'tel-299', '4129080513'),
(54464, 29, 8452, 'your-message', 'Hi Team, \r\n\r\nI\'m instrested on this Marcellus Little Champs PMS Service. Could you please give me more details on this. Thanks!\r\n\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nSri'),
(54465, 29, 8452, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 12:32:13'),
(54466, 29, 8452, 'submit_ip', '104.129.194.54'),
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(54478, 2456, 8454, 'submit_ip', '106.217.100.108'),
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(54480, 29, 8455, 'text-604', 'Seth '),
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(54499, 1662, 8458, 'your-name', 'KRUNAL SEDANI'),
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(54508, 28, 8459, 'your-message', 'I want to empanel myself with your company'),
(54509, 28, 8459, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 16:06:32'),
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(54515, 29, 8460, 'your-message', 'Looking for investment opportunities '),
(54516, 29, 8460, 'submit_time', '2020-03-12 16:09:08'),
(54517, 29, 8460, 'submit_ip', '117.240.186.123'),
(54518, 1662, 8461, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(54519, 1662, 8462, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(54531, 29, 8463, 'text-604', 'Ashin John'),
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(54534, 29, 8463, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nI\'d like to add 50L to your PMS. I\'ve been reading your stories on Bloomberg Quint and would also like to make use of the current dip because of corronavirus. I\'d like the conversations to happen over email, if that\'s ok with you. I\'d also like you to let me know how to start. I already have PMS with 2Point2Capital and MoneyLife. So I already know the basics. \r\n\r\nThanks. '),
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(54713, 29, 8491, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI would like to explore option of investing with Marcellus. Would like to talk to one of your representative. \r\nthanks.\r\nankur.'),
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(54720, 29, 8492, 'your-message', 'Hello Team,\r\n\r\nI have been investing in the Indian equity markets since the last couple of years and very recently had the opportunity to listen to Saurabh talking about the fundamental investment philosophy Marcellus undertakes. \r\n\r\nFrankly, it was quite an eye opener as well as one of those limited experiences which makes one reflect. I sincerely thank him for the same. \r\n\r\nThereafter, i visited the Marcellus website to learn more about how young investors such as myself could get onboard the Marcellus portfolio management services. I fully understand the need for the PMS minimum investment criterion, however, would want to present a case that the current criteria restricts the entry for quite a big pool of interested people. \r\n\r\nI am aware that the current minimum investment criterion ensures that the current investors are naturally those who do have excess spare cash and do not take out their investments quite often and thereby, allow the fund manager to stay invested. \r\n\r\nI agree with the approach but would want to request if the minimum investment criterion could be relaxed considering that the fee could be revised accordingly to make up for the exception and the effort. \r\n\r\nLooking forward to learn more on how young investors could associate with Marcellus. \r\n\r\nThank you \r\n\r\nWarm Regards, \r\n\r\nAmrit '),
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(54727, 28, 8493, 'your-message', 'HI I AM JIGNESH BHAT FROM KALPAVRUKSHA FINANCIAL SERVICES. WE LIKE TO DO EMPANEL WITH MARCELLUS FOR PMS DISTRIBUTION. KINDLY CONTACT US FOR THE FURTHER PROCESS  '),
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(54770, 29, 8500, 'text-604', 'Abhishek Panda'),
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(54773, 29, 8500, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest with you. I have been following Saurabh\'s talks and books and I am absoutely certain that the philosophy works. I need your help in selecting the right PMS - CCP vs Little Champs. So, please do call me.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nAbhishek Panda'),
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(54775, 29, 8500, 'submit_ip', '223.226.111.150'),
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(54780, 29, 8501, 'your-message', 'Do get in touch with us , currently doing two Pms and some Investments in MF'),
(54781, 29, 8501, 'submit_time', '2020-03-13 09:47:55'),
(54782, 29, 8501, 'submit_ip', '123.201.8.139'),
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(54787, 29, 8502, 'your-message', 'Interested in your PMS'),
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(54791, 29, 8503, 'text-604', 'Prashant Sadasivan'),
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(54794, 29, 8503, 'your-message', 'Hi, I\'m keen on investing in the Little Champs PMS with a long term horizon. I would like to connect with someone who can explain the approach and then help me to invest in this. Is the minimum amount INR 50 lakhs?'),
(54795, 29, 8503, 'submit_time', '2020-03-13 11:53:13'),
(54796, 29, 8503, 'submit_ip', '115.114.69.186'),
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(54801, 29, 8504, 'your-message', 'I would like to have a meeting to discuss portfolio management.'),
(54802, 29, 8504, 'submit_time', '2020-03-13 12:10:52'),
(54803, 29, 8504, 'submit_ip', '103.216.167.197'),
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(54811, 29, 8506, 'text-604', 'Saurabh'),
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(54814, 29, 8506, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\n\r\nI am an NRI based out of Dubai, and is keen to invest in your PMS.\r\n\r\nCan you let me know how we can take this forward ?\r\n\r\nBest, \r\nSaurabh '),
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(54821, 29, 8507, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nSaw u your recent MOSL youtube, \r\nkeen in investing.  Pl share your investment product in small cap. '),
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(54828, 29, 8508, 'your-message', 'I would like a meeting with your team to discuss the possibility of me investing with you. Thanks'),
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(54893, 29, 8518, 'your-message', 'Hello, i am a big fan of Saurabh and have an existing PMS with Motilal Oswal but it is bleeding big time. Do you accept PMS inflows from US-NRIs?\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nGaurav.'),
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(54900, 29, 8519, 'your-message', 'I would like invest in your little champ fund and the compunder fund. Pl advise '),
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(54907, 28, 8520, 'your-message', 'Could you forward me the PMS managed by you and procedure for investment'),
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(54914, 29, 8521, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS, appreciate if you could provide information for my review. Thanks'),
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(54927, 29, 8523, 'your-message', 'Wanted to explore CCP if you can consider a minimum of 25L. Please contact if its possible. Thank you!'),
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(57052, 28, 8861, 'your-message', 'Would like to distribute your funds as well as invest my own funds....'),
(57053, 28, 8861, 'submit_time', '2020-03-15 19:05:19'),
(57054, 28, 8861, 'submit_ip', '103.232.151.133'),
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(57056, 29, 8862, 'text-604', 'Jessi Birring'),
(57057, 29, 8862, 'email-510', 'jessi13@gmail.com'),
(57058, 29, 8862, 'tel-299', '0044-7983333913'),
(57059, 29, 8862, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in Consistent Compounders Portfolio. Could you please send me more information and get someone to give me call. Thanks'),
(57060, 29, 8862, 'submit_time', '2020-03-15 19:50:44'),
(57061, 29, 8862, 'submit_ip', '90.254.86.129'),
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(57063, 29, 8863, 'text-604', 'Abhishek'),
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(57066, 29, 8863, 'your-message', 'Hello wanted to know more about PMS service.. what are the charges for the services'),
(57067, 29, 8863, 'submit_time', '2020-03-15 20:19:43'),
(57068, 29, 8863, 'submit_ip', '99.22.30.104'),
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(57078, 29, 8865, 'tel-299', '0044-7983333913'),
(57079, 29, 8865, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest in Consistent Compounders Portfolio. Could you please me some information or call me on the above number. Thanks'),
(57080, 29, 8865, 'submit_time', '2020-03-15 20:31:27'),
(57081, 29, 8865, 'submit_ip', '90.254.86.129'),
(57082, 29, 8866, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57083, 29, 8866, 'text-604', 'Raymundo Lattimore'),
(57084, 29, 8866, 'email-510', 'info@marcellus.in'),
(57085, 29, 8866, 'tel-299', '67 213 37 80'),
(57086, 29, 8866, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nBuy Louis Vuitton Designer Handbags only $59 today.  Please check our site: designeroutlets.online\r\n\r\nBest,\r\n\r\nContact Us - Marcellus - marcellus.in'),
(57087, 29, 8866, 'submit_time', '2020-03-15 21:03:50'),
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(57117, 1662, 8871, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 02:25:54'),
(57118, 1662, 8871, 'submit_ip', '165.225.112.96'),
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(57120, 2456, 8872, 'your-name', 'Debasish Bose'),
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(57123, 2456, 8872, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 03:32:33'),
(57124, 2456, 8872, 'submit_ip', '202.142.75.241'),
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(57126, 29, 8873, 'text-604', 'Debasish Bose'),
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(57129, 29, 8873, 'your-message', 'Sir,\r\nwhat is the criteria of investing through your company'),
(57130, 29, 8873, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 03:34:43'),
(57131, 29, 8873, 'submit_ip', '202.142.75.241'),
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(57139, 1662, 8875, 'your-name', 'Nages'),
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(57142, 1662, 8875, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 03:49:50'),
(57143, 1662, 8875, 'submit_ip', '106.51.24.199'),
(57144, 29, 8876, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57145, 29, 8876, 'text-604', 'kartikey gupta'),
(57146, 29, 8876, 'email-510', 'kartikeygupta73@icloud.com'),
(57147, 29, 8876, 'tel-299', '9425810844'),
(57148, 29, 8876, 'your-message', 'I have send multiple messages ,\r\nplease call back soon'),
(57149, 29, 8876, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 04:53:40'),
(57150, 29, 8876, 'submit_ip', '27.62.246.198'),
(57151, 29, 8877, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57152, 29, 8877, 'text-604', 'Dipin Aggarwal'),
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(57154, 29, 8877, 'tel-299', '7838179800'),
(57155, 29, 8877, 'your-message', 'Please let me know the details for investing through your PMS (Product - Consistent Compounders)'),
(57156, 29, 8877, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 04:55:15'),
(57157, 29, 8877, 'submit_ip', '182.69.213.197'),
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(57159, 28, 8878, 'text-996', 'Subir Ghoshal'),
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(57162, 28, 8878, 'your-message', 'Hi'),
(57163, 28, 8878, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:04:46'),
(57164, 28, 8878, 'submit_ip', '2.50.134.135'),
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(57166, 29, 8879, 'text-604', 'Subir Ghoshal'),
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(57169, 29, 8879, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n'),
(57170, 29, 8879, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:05:12'),
(57171, 29, 8879, 'submit_ip', '2.50.134.135'),
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(57173, 29, 8880, 'text-604', 'vinay jalan'),
(57174, 29, 8880, 'email-510', 'vjalan77@gmail.com'),
(57175, 29, 8880, 'tel-299', '9830043715'),
(57176, 29, 8880, 'your-message', 'want to start a new pms in the name of my company..plz respond'),
(57177, 29, 8880, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:12:20'),
(57178, 29, 8880, 'submit_ip', '122.163.24.211'),
(57179, 29, 8881, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57180, 29, 8881, 'text-604', 'Sarojesh Mukerjee'),
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(57182, 29, 8881, 'tel-299', '9748604998'),
(57183, 29, 8881, 'your-message', 'Hi, I would like to invest and need some info.  Please get back to me on mail with your responses:  a) Why PMS, not MF? b) Can partnership firms invest, c) How often do your investors get to know of their portfolio performance? d) How did you perform in Feb 20?  Thanks.'),
(57184, 29, 8881, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:35:18'),
(57185, 29, 8881, 'submit_ip', '103.251.80.4'),
(57186, 29, 8882, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57187, 29, 8882, 'text-604', 'Ankit Chhabra'),
(57188, 29, 8882, 'email-510', 'ankit.chhabra31@gmail.com'),
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(57190, 29, 8882, 'your-message', 'Looking to invest in the PMS'),
(57191, 29, 8882, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:49:45'),
(57192, 29, 8882, 'submit_ip', '148.64.5.182'),
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(57194, 29, 8883, 'text-604', 'Yogesh Sarda'),
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(57197, 29, 8883, 'your-message', 'I am interested in PMS, please get in touch so that we can discuss next steps  '),
(57198, 29, 8883, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 05:55:44'),
(57199, 29, 8883, 'submit_ip', '122.175.18.43'),
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(57201, 29, 8884, 'text-604', 'Dipin Aggarwal'),
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(57204, 29, 8884, 'your-message', 'Please let me know how can I contact you for investment in your PMS (Consistent Compounders)'),
(57205, 29, 8884, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 06:16:39'),
(57206, 29, 8884, 'submit_ip', '182.69.213.197'),
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(57214, 28, 8886, 'text-996', 'A SHANKARAN'),
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(57217, 28, 8886, 'your-message', 'want to get em-paneled '),
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(57221, 28, 8887, 'text-996', 'ANIRUDDHA WARGANTIWAR'),
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(57224, 28, 8887, 'your-message', 'I am interested in becoming an investor with Marcellus'),
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(57246, 29, 8891, 'text-604', 'Siddharth Gupta'),
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(57249, 29, 8891, 'your-message', 'How to go about PMS'),
(57250, 29, 8891, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 07:29:39'),
(57251, 29, 8891, 'submit_ip', '122.167.109.74'),
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(57253, 29, 8892, 'text-604', 'Pranay '),
(57254, 29, 8892, 'email-510', 'nikitajags@gmail.com'),
(57255, 29, 8892, 'tel-299', '7506035458'),
(57256, 29, 8892, 'your-message', 'Pls contact me. I am interested in Investing in your products. '),
(57257, 29, 8892, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 07:49:53'),
(57258, 29, 8892, 'submit_ip', '1.39.170.163'),
(57259, 29, 8893, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57260, 29, 8893, 'text-604', 'Suresh Subramanian'),
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(57263, 29, 8893, 'your-message', 'Hello there,\r\n\r\nI am a Non Resident Indian, living in the USA. Can I invest in your PMS? If yes, how do I go about it? \r\n\r\nThank you,\r\nSuresh'),
(57264, 29, 8893, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 07:51:43'),
(57265, 29, 8893, 'submit_ip', '73.169.135.85'),
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(57270, 28, 8894, 'your-message', 'I\'m a big fan of Saurabh and our investment philosophy aligns. I would like to explore Marcellus to manage our family investment and wish to be contacted about the same.'),
(57271, 28, 8894, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 08:10:39'),
(57272, 28, 8894, 'submit_ip', '49.205.216.185'),
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(57274, 28, 8895, 'text-996', 'Ashmita  Sharma'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(57277, 28, 8895, 'your-message', 'Good Afternoon, \r\n\r\nI came across your company\'s name through an article on Economics Times. \r\nI just wanted to know whether your company facilitates investments in bonds as well. \r\n\r\nMy company Derivium Tradition Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. ltd is  a leading intermediary in Indian Primary and Secondary Debt Capital Markets. From 2004, we have also been partnering with several blue chip corporate and emerging NBFC issuers in raising debt capital. Our institutional investors clientele include marquee insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds, provident funds, AIFs, portfolio managers and wealth management firms. Our Partner / Parent company Tradition SH, Lausanne is World’s 2nd largest OTC debt &amp; FX intermediaries with presence in more than 20 countries.\r\n\r\nOver the last several years, we have meticulously built a large network of debt market investors comprising institutional as well as HNI + retail investors. This has enabled us to provide best-in-class pricing for both market lots as well as odd lots for the following securities -\r\n\r\n•	Tax-free bonds\r\n•	State-guaranteed bonds\r\n•	Bank / NBFC Perpetual bonds\r\n•	Dated corporate bonds\r\n•	Listed and unlisted preference shares\r\n•	Unlisted equity shares\r\n\r\nWe also work with several wealth management firms and IFAs who source the aforementioned securities for their clients. The partnership network has grown over the years due to our unflinching commitment towards providing best quotes, time bound service, transparent dealings and strict adherence to client related confidentiality and non-infringing policy. \r\nWe invite you to provide us an opportunity to service your investment requirements and look forward to transforming it to a mutually beneficially long term association.\r\n\r\nIn this regard, I wanted to know whether there is any other way to contact the concerned authority at your office other than mail. We could also set up a meeting at your office at your preferred date and time. The agenda is to discuss how we can work together. \r\n\r\nThank You, \r\nWaiting for your reply,\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nAshmita Sharma\r\nFixed Income Dealer - Wealth Partnerships\r\n+91 97695 08013  | ashmitas@deriviumcap.com\r\n\r\nd  e  r  i  v  i  u  m    |   g  e  n  e  v       \r\nwww.deriviumcap.com\r\nEucharistic Congress III, 10 Flr, 5 Convent Road, Colaba, Mumbai - 400 039\r\nTel : +91 22 6606 4657  |  Fax : +91 22 (6606 4601)\r\n\r\n============================================================================================================================================================================\r\nThe information transmitted in this e-mail is intended solely for the addressee. It is confidential and may be legally privileged. Access to this e-mail by anyone else is unauthorized. Any disclosure copying, distribution or any action taken other than by the intended recipient is prohibited and may be unlawful. If you are not the intended recipient then kindly delete the mail from your system. Any opinion or views expressed in this mail may not necessarily reflect that of Derivium Tradition Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. The company considers unencrypted e-mail as an insecure mode of communication.\r\n'),
(57278, 28, 8895, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 08:18:08'),
(57279, 28, 8895, 'submit_ip', '114.143.110.172'),
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(57293, 28, 8898, 'text-996', 'Nilesh Mehta'),
(57294, 28, 8898, 'email-563', 'nsmehta1957@gmail.com'),
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(57296, 28, 8898, 'your-message', 'Please contact .'),
(57297, 28, 8898, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 09:43:47'),
(57298, 28, 8898, 'submit_ip', '110.227.193.211'),
(57299, 29, 8899, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(57305, 29, 8899, 'submit_ip', '110.227.193.211'),
(57306, 29, 8900, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57307, 29, 8900, 'text-604', 'JYOTINDRA THACKER'),
(57308, 29, 8900, 'email-510', 'jt@ril.com'),
(57309, 29, 8900, 'tel-299', '9819999022'),
(57310, 29, 8900, 'your-message', 'I am interested in a introduction to your products.  Please call me on my desk phone: 022-79672204'),
(57311, 29, 8900, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 10:25:56'),
(57312, 29, 8900, 'submit_ip', '116.50.85.154'),
(57313, 1662, 8901, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57314, 1662, 8901, 'your-name', 'onkar Dudhane'),
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(57317, 1662, 8901, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 10:54:58'),
(57318, 1662, 8901, 'submit_ip', '106.210.180.114'),
(57319, 28, 8902, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57320, 28, 8902, 'text-996', 'naveen daiya'),
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(57322, 28, 8902, 'tel-182', '9019308314'),
(57323, 28, 8902, 'your-message', 'We would like to tie up with you for sourcing business for PMS.\r\nkindly let us know the procedure.....\r\n'),
(57324, 28, 8902, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 11:09:27'),
(57325, 28, 8902, 'submit_ip', '117.192.146.139'),
(57326, 29, 8903, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57327, 29, 8903, 'text-604', 'sandeep tomar'),
(57328, 29, 8903, 'email-510', 'sandeeptmr@gmail.com'),
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(57330, 29, 8903, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI live in UAE and looking for quality PMS services. please let me know the procedure to invest through PMS\r\nregards\r\nSandeep Tomar'),
(57331, 29, 8903, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 11:40:36'),
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(57340, 29, 8905, 'text-604', 'Manish '),
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(57343, 29, 8905, 'your-message', 'Planning to invest in CCP PMS.'),
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(57351, 28, 8906, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 12:22:33'),
(57352, 28, 8906, 'submit_ip', '49.207.59.142'),
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(57363, 28, 8908, 'your-message', 'Request for distributorship'),
(57364, 28, 8908, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 12:41:58'),
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(57367, 29, 8909, 'text-604', 'MaryAnn Chakraborty'),
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(57370, 29, 8909, 'your-message', 'I want to invest through Marcellus guidance and correct my falling portfolio'),
(57371, 29, 8909, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 12:49:25'),
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(57374, 29, 8910, 'text-604', 'Ankush Arun Agrawal'),
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(57377, 29, 8910, 'your-message', 'What is the minimum ammount that I can start with ? And what is the procedure for investment ? '),
(57378, 29, 8910, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 13:10:29'),
(57379, 29, 8910, 'submit_ip', '27.56.218.153'),
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(57381, 29, 8911, 'text-604', 'Pranav SHinde'),
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(57384, 29, 8911, 'your-message', 'wish to know about the Little champs PMS'),
(57385, 29, 8911, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 13:53:31'),
(57386, 29, 8911, 'submit_ip', '1.186.198.242'),
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(57394, 1662, 8913, 'your-name', 'Varun jaju'),
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(57400, 1662, 8914, 'your-name', 'Sidharth Sachdeva'),
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(57403, 1662, 8914, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 15:46:03'),
(57404, 1662, 8914, 'submit_ip', '110.225.67.217'),
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(57406, 1662, 8915, 'your-name', 'Prashant Kanoria'),
(57407, 1662, 8915, 'your-email', 'prashantkanoria@gmail.com'),
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(57409, 1662, 8915, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 16:14:59'),
(57410, 1662, 8915, 'submit_ip', '49.37.6.133'),
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(57412, 1662, 8916, 'your-name', 'Prashant Kanoria'),
(57413, 1662, 8916, 'your-email', 'prashantkanoria@gmail.com'),
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(57416, 1662, 8916, 'submit_ip', '49.37.6.133'),
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(57418, 28, 8917, 'text-996', 'Kousik mitra'),
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(57420, 28, 8917, 'tel-182', '9903010141'),
(57421, 28, 8917, 'your-message', 'I have been working with financial market for the last 14 years, and presently working as IFA. I would like join your organization as distributor. Looking forward for your prompt response. '),
(57422, 28, 8917, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 16:38:23'),
(57423, 28, 8917, 'submit_ip', '223.191.9.107'),
(57424, 1662, 8918, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57425, 1662, 8918, 'your-name', 'Bhavesh Jain '),
(57426, 1662, 8918, 'your-email', 'bjain1980@yahoo.com'),
(57427, 1662, 8918, 'tel-309', '9819208320'),
(57428, 1662, 8918, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 17:12:23'),
(57429, 1662, 8918, 'submit_ip', '114.143.255.138'),
(57430, 29, 8919, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57431, 29, 8919, 'text-604', 'Anubhav'),
(57432, 29, 8919, 'email-510', 'anubhav.kuhad@gmail.com'),
(57433, 29, 8919, 'tel-299', '+18126820133'),
(57434, 29, 8919, 'your-message', 'Please send me details of your PMS.'),
(57435, 29, 8919, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 18:07:42'),
(57436, 29, 8919, 'submit_ip', '24.13.144.109'),
(57437, 2456, 8920, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57438, 2456, 8920, 'your-name', 'alindra kumar'),
(57439, 2456, 8920, 'your-email', 'alindrakumar@gmail.com'),
(57440, 2456, 8920, 'tel-971', '9818060144'),
(57441, 2456, 8920, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 18:11:48'),
(57442, 2456, 8920, 'submit_ip', '117.97.243.56'),
(57443, 29, 8921, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57444, 29, 8921, 'text-604', 'Gautam Sisodiya'),
(57445, 29, 8921, 'email-510', 'fv.mandsaur@gmail.com'),
(57446, 29, 8921, 'tel-299', '6263284090'),
(57447, 29, 8921, 'your-message', 'Looking to buy Consistent Compounder PMS '),
(57448, 29, 8921, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 23:11:03'),
(57449, 29, 8921, 'submit_ip', '47.247.206.208'),
(57450, 2456, 8922, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57451, 2456, 8922, 'your-name', 'Amit Kumar'),
(57452, 2456, 8922, 'your-email', 'kumaramit.0703@gmail.com'),
(57453, 2456, 8922, 'tel-971', '9739638990'),
(57454, 2456, 8922, 'submit_time', '2020-03-16 23:47:02'),
(57455, 2456, 8922, 'submit_ip', '192.54.222.153'),
(57456, 29, 8923, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57457, 29, 8923, 'text-604', 'Raj Sinha'),
(57458, 29, 8923, 'email-510', 'mk8514201@gmail.com'),
(57459, 29, 8923, 'tel-299', '4372417653'),
(57460, 29, 8923, 'your-message', 'Hi ,\r\nI want advisory service for investing in Indian financial market.\r\n\r\nThanks'),
(57461, 29, 8923, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 00:30:29'),
(57462, 29, 8923, 'submit_ip', '99.238.81.51'),
(57463, 29, 8924, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57464, 29, 8924, 'text-604', 'Ashish'),
(57465, 29, 8924, 'email-510', 'ashishmulye28@gmail.com'),
(57466, 29, 8924, 'tel-299', '9887005266'),
(57467, 29, 8924, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI want to invest in mutual fund I all ready have portfolio how can u help me'),
(57468, 29, 8924, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 02:40:49'),
(57469, 29, 8924, 'submit_ip', '1.187.86.221'),
(57470, 1662, 8925, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57471, 1662, 8925, 'your-name', 'View Details'),
(57472, 1662, 8925, 'your-email', 'sadasdasd@yahoo.com'),
(57473, 1662, 8925, 'tel-309', '84986324395'),
(57474, 1662, 8925, 'submit', 'Send'),
(57475, 1662, 8925, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 02:47:03'),
(57476, 1662, 8925, 'submit_ip', '67.242.131.15'),
(57477, 29, 8926, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57478, 29, 8926, 'text-604', 'Sunil Vohra'),
(57479, 29, 8926, 'email-510', 'sunilvohra@hotmail.com'),
(57480, 29, 8926, 'tel-299', '9891644193'),
(57481, 29, 8926, 'your-message', 'I am exploring subscribing your consistent compounding stocks.'),
(57482, 29, 8926, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 02:57:37'),
(57483, 29, 8926, 'submit_ip', '119.82.85.224'),
(57484, 29, 8927, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57485, 29, 8927, 'text-604', 'SAMIR SHAH'),
(57486, 29, 8927, 'email-510', 'SHAHSAMIRK@GMAIL.COM'),
(57487, 29, 8927, 'tel-299', '9892525365'),
(57488, 29, 8927, 'your-message', 'interested in investing money in PMS. Particularly Little Champ product.\r\nCan you please forward me latest fact sheet/ performance.\r\nCan anybody get in touch?'),
(57489, 29, 8927, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 04:13:04'),
(57490, 29, 8927, 'submit_ip', '103.66.215.127'),
(57491, 1662, 8928, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57492, 1662, 8928, 'your-name', 'P Vaitheeswaran'),
(57493, 1662, 8928, 'your-email', 'Pvaitheeswaran@gmail.com'),
(57494, 1662, 8928, 'tel-309', '6364367640'),
(57495, 1662, 8928, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 04:28:52'),
(57496, 1662, 8928, 'submit_ip', '27.59.65.144'),
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(57498, 1662, 8929, 'your-name', 'P Vaitheeswaran'),
(57499, 1662, 8929, 'your-email', 'pvaitheeswaran@gmail.com'),
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(57501, 1662, 8929, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 04:31:30'),
(57502, 1662, 8929, 'submit_ip', '27.59.65.144'),
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(57504, 2456, 8930, 'your-name', 'P Vaitheeswaran'),
(57505, 2456, 8930, 'your-email', 'pvaitheeswaran@gmail.com'),
(57506, 2456, 8930, 'tel-971', '3636363636'),
(57507, 2456, 8930, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 04:33:12'),
(57508, 2456, 8930, 'submit_ip', '27.59.65.144'),
(57509, 29, 8931, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57510, 29, 8931, 'text-604', 'Ranjit Patil'),
(57511, 29, 8931, 'email-510', 'ranjitpatilms@gmail.com'),
(57512, 29, 8931, 'tel-299', '07263076268'),
(57513, 29, 8931, 'your-message', 'I would like to invest 10k per month. Please let me know if you are accepting such a small investment'),
(57514, 29, 8931, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 05:23:48'),
(57515, 29, 8931, 'submit_ip', '157.33.186.200'),
(57516, 28, 8932, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57517, 28, 8932, 'text-996', 'Invictus Wealth Advisors LLP'),
(57518, 28, 8932, 'email-563', 'research@invictuswealth.in'),
(57519, 28, 8932, 'tel-182', '9703141838'),
(57520, 28, 8932, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\n\r\nwould like to empanel with you .could you please send the formalities for empanellment .\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nsrinivas'),
(57521, 28, 8932, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 05:52:45'),
(57522, 28, 8932, 'submit_ip', '183.82.255.25'),
(57523, 29, 8933, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57524, 29, 8933, 'text-604', 'Rupen jhaveri'),
(57525, 29, 8933, 'email-510', 'rupen.jhaveri@kkr.com'),
(57526, 29, 8933, 'tel-299', '9967377778'),
(57527, 29, 8933, 'your-message', 'Id like to invest. Would like to connect with saurabh'),
(57528, 29, 8933, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 06:02:32'),
(57529, 29, 8933, 'submit_ip', '106.209.138.26'),
(57530, 28, 8934, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57531, 28, 8934, 'text-996', 'KeithBlopy'),
(57532, 28, 8934, 'email-563', 'congcmo@yandex.com'),
(57533, 28, 8934, 'tel-182', '89926843197'),
(57534, 28, 8934, 'your-message', '      HQ Twitter 2007 - 2019 Aged Accounts Starting from 1$ \r\nPrices: \r\n2017,2018,2019-1$ per account \r\n2015,2016-4$ per account \r\n2013,2014 - 5$ per account \r\n2012 - 6$ per account \r\n2011 - 7$ per account \r\n2010 - 8$ per account \r\n2009 - 10$ per account \r\n2008 - 20$ per account ( limited stock) \r\n \r\nThe Accounts \r\nHave zero or less than 50 followers. \r\nGender can be both male and female. \r\nMay or may not have profile pic and tweets. \r\nI have full access to the accounts, \r\nAccounts are delivered instant after paying. \r\nMy Contact Info \r\n \r\nEmail - congmmo@gmail . com \r\n \r\nhttps://sellaccs.net \r\n \r\nDiscord : CongMMO#9766 \r\nSkype &amp; Telegram : congmmo \r\nICQ : @652720497 \r\n \r\nPlease don\'t PM here on this website , i rarely check it \r\nFor quick response contact me on discord or email. \r\n \r\nJoin my discord server to buy instantly - Link \r\n \r\nInstant Buy from the below link \r\nBuy link \r\n \r\nDue to timezone difference it might take some time to get back to you. Please wait patiently. \r\n \r\nI am verified seller here and have 100% positive feedback \r\n \r\nPayments Methods Accepted- BTC, Paypal (additional transaction/miner fee ) \r\n \r\nPlease don\'t waste my time if u r not serious. \r\n \r\nTerms \r\nAll sales are final, once accounts delivered, no refunds \r\nTwitter rules are becoming very strict everyday so I will not be held responsible for the suspension or banning of account in the near future. \r\n \r\nI also sell accounts with followers, check my other threads.'),
(57535, 28, 8934, 'submit', 'Submit'),
(57536, 28, 8934, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 06:20:51'),
(57537, 28, 8934, 'submit_ip', '42.116.242.221'),
(57538, 29, 8935, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57539, 29, 8935, 'text-604', 'abdul rahim'),
(57540, 29, 8935, 'email-510', 'bsarahim@gmail.com'),
(57541, 29, 8935, 'tel-299', '9886333529'),
(57542, 29, 8935, 'your-message', 'interested to know about little champ or another PMS to park the money with my some conidtions'),
(57543, 29, 8935, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 06:30:56'),
(57544, 29, 8935, 'submit_ip', '49.206.25.147'),
(57545, 29, 8936, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57546, 29, 8936, 'text-604', 'Santosh Gore'),
(57547, 29, 8936, 'email-510', 'sgore@iffco.com'),
(57548, 29, 8936, 'tel-299', '+971555138089'),
(57549, 29, 8936, 'your-message', 'I am a Dubai based NRI. I wish to invest in your PMS product. Please let me know how to proceed.'),
(57550, 29, 8936, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 07:08:19'),
(57551, 29, 8936, 'submit_ip', '217.165.23.242'),
(57552, 29, 8937, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57553, 29, 8937, 'text-604', 'Pranay Sonchhatra'),
(57554, 29, 8937, 'email-510', 'pranaysonchhatra@gmial.com'),
(57555, 29, 8937, 'tel-299', '9890571571'),
(57556, 29, 8937, 'your-message', 'I would like to put money with you guys in PMS let me know the process and how can i go about it and the fees structure would like to know '),
(57557, 29, 8937, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 08:04:24'),
(57558, 29, 8937, 'submit_ip', '123.201.54.162'),
(57559, 29, 8938, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57560, 29, 8938, 'text-604', 'Pranay '),
(57561, 29, 8938, 'email-510', 'pranay.agrawal24@gmail.com'),
(57562, 29, 8938, 'tel-299', '7506035458'),
(57563, 29, 8938, 'your-message', 'Trying to get in touch for last few days. Have not received a single call till now. I understand everyone is busy. Kindly call at your earliest convenience. '),
(57564, 29, 8938, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 08:21:17'),
(57565, 29, 8938, 'submit_ip', '49.207.62.14'),
(57566, 28, 8939, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57567, 28, 8939, 'text-996', 'satish'),
(57568, 28, 8939, 'email-563', 'satishdlf@hotmail.com'),
(57569, 28, 8939, 'tel-182', '9810531690'),
(57570, 28, 8939, 'your-message', 'Ardent admirer Saurabh'),
(57571, 28, 8939, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 09:16:35'),
(57572, 28, 8939, 'submit_ip', '115.97.128.240'),
(57573, 29, 8940, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57574, 29, 8940, 'text-604', 'VAIBHAV KARNAWAT'),
(57575, 29, 8940, 'email-510', 'VAIBHAV@SUPERDIAMONDEXPORTS.COM'),
(57576, 29, 8940, 'tel-299', '9833712359'),
(57577, 29, 8940, 'your-message', 'Have heard a lot about your team, philosophy and the fund. Would like to chat about the same in person '),
(57578, 29, 8940, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 10:41:43'),
(57579, 29, 8940, 'submit_ip', '203.212.222.161'),
(57580, 29, 8941, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57581, 29, 8941, 'text-604', 'Darshan Deora'),
(57582, 29, 8941, 'email-510', 'ddeora@indvestgroup.com'),
(57583, 29, 8941, 'tel-299', '9867243530'),
(57584, 29, 8941, 'your-message', 'Hi I would like to invest in your pms scheme. Kindly arrange for someone to call or email me.'),
(57585, 29, 8941, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 10:44:15'),
(57586, 29, 8941, 'submit_ip', '49.36.9.175'),
(57587, 1662, 8942, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57588, 1662, 8942, 'your-name', 'Deepak Srivastava'),
(57589, 1662, 8942, 'your-email', 'dipak1406@gmail.com'),
(57590, 1662, 8942, 'tel-309', '9769628444'),
(57591, 1662, 8942, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 11:32:30'),
(57592, 1662, 8942, 'submit_ip', '61.95.234.65'),
(57593, 29, 8943, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57594, 29, 8943, 'text-604', 'Tarun'),
(57595, 29, 8943, 'email-510', 'tarun.dhingra@icloud.com'),
(57596, 29, 8943, 'tel-299', '006590012494'),
(57597, 29, 8943, 'your-message', 'Hi There, I am interested in investing with you. I am an Singaporean investor of Indian origin (OCI). I would like to find out how I may invest with you. Thank you'),
(57598, 29, 8943, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 12:32:06'),
(57599, 29, 8943, 'submit_ip', '218.186.138.86'),
(57600, 1662, 8944, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57601, 1662, 8944, 'your-name', 'ArthurCuh'),
(57602, 1662, 8944, 'your-email', 'uzfbhvr@tvdetkamekfksmotr.site'),
(57603, 1662, 8944, 'tel-309', '87348191279'),
(57604, 1662, 8944, 'submit', 'Send'),
(57605, 1662, 8944, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 12:42:59'),
(57606, 1662, 8944, 'submit_ip', '104.238.39.158'),
(57607, 29, 8945, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57608, 29, 8945, 'text-604', 'Neeraj Ahuja'),
(57609, 29, 8945, 'email-510', 'neeraj.ahuja01@gmail.com'),
(57610, 29, 8945, 'tel-299', '09977000436'),
(57611, 29, 8945, 'your-message', 'I m looking for a financial advisor to manage my investments. I plan to invest around 1 lakh per month'),
(57612, 29, 8945, 'submit_time', '2020-03-17 13:30:06'),
(57613, 29, 8945, 'submit_ip', '1.187.242.142'),
(57614, 29, 8946, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(57615, 29, 8946, 'text-604', 'Aish Sandeep'),
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(57637, 29, 8949, 'your-message', 'Hello Marcellus Team\r\nI have gone through the details provided on your website and it looks very interesting. I admire the analytical ability and the strategy being followed. I believe the minimum investment value was 25 lacs till December-2019 and it has now been raised to 50 lacs. Is there an option to invest in the range of 25 lacs ?\r\nRegards\r\nRupesh'),
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(57663, 29, 8953, 'your-message', 'This question is about COFFEE CAN INVESTMENT by Mr.Mukherjea.\r\nIs average revenue growth of 10% to be considered or each year it\'s required...\r\nSuppose one or two years it does not meet the 10% will it a problem???\r\nNeed to talk with Mr. Mukherjea'),
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organizations of the Russian Federation - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases for sending newsletters: \r\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPls., do not respond to this message from your electronic box, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site http://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 15 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $200 \r\n \r\n35439 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all countries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\nAmiro 2294 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 175513 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 49721 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 7769 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1562 websites $50 \r\nDatalife 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(59156, 28, 9190, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in getting to know more about the investment advisory plans that you have.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\n-Prakash.'),
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(59163, 28, 9191, 'your-message', 'Hello. I\'m currently pursuing MBA in Finance and looking for summer internship. Do you provide intership opportunities?'),
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(59170, 29, 9192, 'your-message', 'kindly share abt how to join your pms services.\r\nrgds'),
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(59207, 29, 9198, 'your-message', 'Want to join in your PMS. Need to discuss'),
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(59209, 29, 9198, 'submit_ip', '106.211.210.118'),
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(59218, 29, 9200, 'text-604', 'kunal'),
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(59221, 29, 9200, 'your-message', 'want to open pms with you '),
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(59234, 29, 9202, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\nI wish to open a PMS account with your company for ₹50 lacs and would prefer fixed fee model (with ZERO lock in, entry load, exit load, performance fee ) , the fixed fee mentioned on your website is 2%. I wish to know 2 things \r\n1. Is it possible to reduce this fixed fee to 1.5% p.a.\r\n2. High water mark applies for performance fees, what this means ?\r\n\r\nRegards '),
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(61212, 29, 9523, 'your-message', 'hi there\r\nI have just checked marcellus.in for the ranking keywords and seen that your SEO metrics could use a boost.\r\n\r\nWe will improve your SEO metrics and ranks organically and safely, using only whitehat methods, while providing monthly reports and outstanding support.\r\n\r\nPlease check our pricelist here, we offer SEO at cheap rates. \r\nhttps://www.hilkom-digital.de/cheap-seo-packages/\r\n\r\nStart increasing your sales and leads with us, today!\r\n\r\nBe safe and best regards\r\n\r\nMike\r\nHilkom Digital Team\r\nsupport@hilkom-digital.de'),
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(61682, 29, 9599, 'your-message', 'I am intrested. Can u Plz share the performance of ur PMS from start till date.'),
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(61695, 29, 9601, 'your-message', 'I am exploring possibility of investing through Marcellus. Being new I need to know how this works. \r\n1. Please send me a copy of sample agreement to be signed.\r\n2. Please tell me the process of investment step by step.\r\n3. What control will I have on the portfolio?\r\n4. I believe there is a minimum investment requiremnt of 50L. Can I split this between CC and little champs?\r\n5. Does CCP include midcaps and smallcaps?\r\n6. Are components of CCP rotated after consultation with the investor?\r\n7. Is CCP a kind of mutual fund or are each investor\'s portfolio kept separate?\r\n8. Do you provide advisory service whereby the portfolio is maintained and controlled by the investor under your advice? If yes, what is the fee for such a service?\r\nThanks\r\nSS Sibia'),
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(62351, 29, 9706, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in availing your PMS product with respect to CCP. Kindly let me know how to proceed further.\r\n\r\nregards,\r\nSriram'),
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(62358, 29, 9707, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nWe would like to introduce to you our explainer video service which we feel can benefit your site marcellus.in.\r\n\r\nCheck out a couple of our video examples here:\r\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKY4a3hvmUc\r\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut6Wq3cjRys\r\n\r\nThey can show a solution to a problem (such as your product or service), are concise, can be uploaded to video sites like Youtube, and can be embedded into your website or featured on single landing pages.\r\n\r\nOur prices are as follows depending on video length:\r\n0-1 minutes = $149\r\n1-2 minutes = $269\r\n2-3 minutes = $399\r\n\r\n*All prices include a custom video, full script and a voice-over.\r\n\r\nIf this is something you would like to discuss further, do not hesitate to get in touch.\r\nIf you are not interested, simply delete this message and you will not be contacted again.\r\n\r\nKind Regards,\r\nBarbara'),
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(62409, 28, 9715, 'your-message', 'We would like to distribute your PMS products. We are AMFI registered Mutual Fund distributors. We have some clients who wish to invest ASAP. Can we make them invest online through our distributor code which you can generate. We tried calling your boardline number but no one\'s picking up. If possible please call me ASAP on 9821045868.\r\nThanks\r\nNipun Sanghavi\r\nBenchmark Investment Managers'),
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(62472, 28, 9725, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir,\r\nMy client is interested in investing into your PMS fund. He is based in Mumbai. I would request you to please arrange a meeting between us so that we can work out the same accordingly.\r\n\r\nYou can contact me on the above mentioned number\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nKamal Sheth'),
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(62574, 29, 9741, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nInterested in investing in the Marcellus PMS. Can you please share latest performance details and account opening process.\r\n\r\nRegards'),
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(62606, 28, 9746, 'submit_time', '2020-03-27 05:29:10'),
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(62852, 29, 9784, 'your-message', 'Investment in little champs\r\n\r\nHello\r\n\r\nI am a businessman from Chandigarh and Interested to invest in Little Champs. I have some questions\r\n\r\n1) Do you have a system of NAV (Like mutual funds) that you allot units to an investor. Do you disclose the NAV?\r\n\r\n2) My main point is I have the option to invest in Mutual fund now compared to your PMS. In mutual fund I know the current NAV which is around 25-30% less from the levels of some months back. So now if I enter the mutual fund I will be entering around 30% less levels compared to the NAV of some months back. So a patient investor like me who has sat on cash for last 3 years is rewarded If I invest in mutual funds now since I will getting the fund units at 30% less\r\n\r\n3) Continuing above my main question is that whether I will be allotted units(or share) in your Little champs portfolio at current market prices or the same prices as some months back before the crash? \r\n\r\nI will be taking the investment decision soon\r\n\r\nAny questions please call me or write to me\r\n\r\nPuneet Singhal\r\n9316135623\r\npuneetksinghal@yahoo.com'),
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(63530, 1662, 9891, 'your-name', 'MANISH GUPTA'),
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(63536, 1662, 9892, 'your-name', 'Sheetal kumar Jain'),
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(63560, 28, 9896, 'text-996', 'Dipen patel'),
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(63563, 28, 9896, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/Madame\r\n\r\nI am\r\nInterested in investing in your fund. I am a UK resident, is this possible?\r\n\r\nThanks so much\r\n\r\nDipen'),
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(63570, 29, 9897, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir/Madame\r\n\r\nI am interested in investing in your fund. I am a UK resident and wish to know whether I am\r\nAble to invest.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\n'),
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(63580, 1662, 9899, 'your-name', 'Debayan Saha'),
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(63586, 1662, 9900, 'your-name', 'DS KUMAR'),
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(63610, 29, 9904, 'text-604', 'Yagnesh'),
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(63613, 29, 9904, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nCan two or more people (NRIs)  jointly do PMS ?\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nYagnesh'),
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(63635, 1662, 9908, 'your-name', 'Arigit Chatterjee '),
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(63647, 1662, 9910, 'your-name', 'Arigit Chatterjee '),
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(63662, 2456, 9912, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:20:13'),
(63663, 2456, 9912, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.56'),
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(63666, 1662, 9913, 'your-email', 'manek_sudeep@yahoo.com'),
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(63668, 1662, 9913, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:20:43'),
(63669, 1662, 9913, 'submit_ip', '165.225.106.56'),
(63670, 1662, 9914, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63671, 1662, 9914, 'your-name', 'Vinubalan'),
(63672, 1662, 9914, 'your-email', 'kvinubalan@gmail.com'),
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(63674, 1662, 9914, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:27:57'),
(63675, 1662, 9914, 'submit_ip', '106.51.235.6'),
(63676, 29, 9915, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63677, 29, 9915, 'text-604', 'Amrish asher'),
(63678, 29, 9915, 'email-510', 'amrishasher@gmail.com'),
(63679, 29, 9915, 'tel-299', '9843248590'),
(63680, 29, 9915, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS services. \r\nRequest to get in touch with me to discuss further. \r\nTks. '),
(63681, 29, 9915, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:40:23'),
(63682, 29, 9915, 'submit_ip', '49.205.58.59'),
(63683, 2456, 9916, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63684, 2456, 9916, 'your-name', 'Gagan'),
(63685, 2456, 9916, 'your-email', 'legal.gagan@gmail.com'),
(63686, 2456, 9916, 'tel-971', '9818749749'),
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(63688, 2456, 9916, 'submit_ip', '117.97.224.182'),
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(63693, 1662, 9917, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:46:31'),
(63694, 1662, 9917, 'submit_ip', '117.97.224.182'),
(63695, 2456, 9918, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63696, 2456, 9918, 'your-name', 'Satish Adhikari'),
(63697, 2456, 9918, 'your-email', 'adhiks@gmail.com'),
(63698, 2456, 9918, 'tel-971', '9819620541'),
(63699, 2456, 9918, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 18:52:54'),
(63700, 2456, 9918, 'submit_ip', '120.60.236.101'),
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(63702, 1662, 9919, 'your-name', 'Ronald Clement'),
(63703, 1662, 9919, 'your-email', 'p14ronaldc@iimidr.ac.in'),
(63704, 1662, 9919, 'tel-309', '1234512345'),
(63705, 1662, 9919, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 19:04:02'),
(63706, 1662, 9919, 'submit_ip', '110.227.217.56'),
(63707, 29, 9920, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63708, 29, 9920, 'text-604', 'Himanshu Rai'),
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(63710, 29, 9920, 'tel-299', '7023000242'),
(63711, 29, 9920, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am a rural development professional working with social enterprises. I don\'t have either financial strength or inheritance to do bulk investments. \r\n\r\nI am just a big fan of your blog that gives me massive insights into financial markets. However, I am seeking a favour from you top guys. I want to read book and blogs around designing organisations for excellence, how to analyse businesses and corporate strategy. \r\n\r\nAny help in this regard will be highly appreciated.  Otherwise, thanks for educating people in these uncertain times through blog.'),
(63712, 29, 9920, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 19:27:44'),
(63713, 29, 9920, 'submit_ip', '47.31.152.67'),
(63714, 29, 9921, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63715, 29, 9921, 'text-604', 'Premkumar Maru'),
(63716, 29, 9921, 'email-510', 'marupremkumar@gmail.com'),
(63717, 29, 9921, 'tel-299', '7032458985'),
(63718, 29, 9921, 'your-message', 'Interested in investment '),
(63719, 29, 9921, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 19:59:16'),
(63720, 29, 9921, 'submit_ip', '183.82.143.121'),
(63721, 1662, 9922, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63722, 1662, 9922, 'your-name', 'Sushil Poddar'),
(63723, 1662, 9922, 'your-email', 'poddarsk@yahoo.com'),
(63724, 1662, 9922, 'tel-309', '9926899525'),
(63725, 1662, 9922, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 20:49:50'),
(63726, 1662, 9922, 'submit_ip', '42.110.144.62'),
(63727, 1662, 9923, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63728, 1662, 9923, 'your-name', 'Poorna Prabhu'),
(63729, 1662, 9923, 'your-email', 'poornaprabhu@gmail.com'),
(63730, 1662, 9923, 'tel-309', '9940622562'),
(63731, 1662, 9923, 'submit_time', '2020-03-29 22:39:38'),
(63732, 1662, 9923, 'submit_ip', '213.127.117.159'),
(63733, 1662, 9924, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63734, 1662, 9924, 'your-name', 'Ashok'),
(63735, 1662, 9924, 'your-email', 'ashok.educ@gmail.com'),
(63736, 1662, 9924, 'tel-309', '9994057757'),
(63737, 1662, 9924, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 01:20:14'),
(63738, 1662, 9924, 'submit_ip', '171.76.33.2'),
(63739, 1662, 9925, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63740, 1662, 9925, 'your-name', 'Prasanna '),
(63741, 1662, 9925, 'your-email', 'myprasanna@gmail.com'),
(63742, 1662, 9925, 'tel-309', '9789987842'),
(63743, 1662, 9925, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 01:42:32'),
(63744, 1662, 9925, 'submit_ip', '74.51.156.82'),
(63745, 2456, 9926, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63746, 2456, 9926, 'your-name', 'Jitendra Kumar periwal '),
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(63748, 2456, 9926, 'tel-971', '9435338110'),
(63749, 2456, 9926, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 02:15:49'),
(63750, 2456, 9926, 'submit_ip', '117.237.214.242'),
(63751, 2456, 9927, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63752, 2456, 9927, 'your-name', 'Sakthivel Kaliannan'),
(63753, 2456, 9927, 'your-email', 'sakthisujith@gmail.com'),
(63754, 2456, 9927, 'tel-971', '8015625296'),
(63755, 2456, 9927, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 03:05:43'),
(63756, 2456, 9927, 'submit_ip', '208.102.181.45'),
(63757, 1662, 9928, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63758, 1662, 9928, 'your-name', 'Asit Sabat'),
(63759, 1662, 9928, 'your-email', 'asitsabat@gmail.com'),
(63760, 1662, 9928, 'tel-309', '9594020956'),
(63761, 1662, 9928, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 04:20:49'),
(63762, 1662, 9928, 'submit_ip', '223.229.180.102'),
(63763, 29, 9929, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63764, 29, 9929, 'text-604', 'Vipul desai'),
(63765, 29, 9929, 'email-510', 'vvdesai03@yahoo.com'),
(63766, 29, 9929, 'tel-299', '9825859011'),
(63767, 29, 9929, 'your-message', 'I would like to inform you I am in the share market since last 25 years I have my own portfolio of shares however I am interested in your pms scheme. So I want to know what is the minimum amount to start with pms ,lock in period,and the history of past generated return till date I.e 30 March 2020'),
(63768, 29, 9929, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 04:25:38'),
(63769, 29, 9929, 'submit_ip', '116.74.103.40'),
(63770, 29, 9930, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63771, 29, 9930, 'text-604', 'Kevin Liu'),
(63772, 29, 9930, 'email-510', 'kevin@chinaregistry.org.cn'),
(63773, 29, 9930, 'tel-299', '+86-0216191 8696'),
(63774, 29, 9930, 'your-message', '(Please kindly forward this message to your CEO, because this is urgent. If this message disturb you, please ignore it. Thanks) \r\n\r\nThis email is from China domain name registration center, which mainly deal with the domain name registration in China. On 30-03-2020, we received an application from Kanghong Ltd requested &quot;marcellus&quot; as their internet keyword and China (CN) domain names (marcellus.cn, marcellus.com.cn, marcellus.net.cn, marcellus.org.cn). But after checking it, we find this name conflict with your company name or trademark. In order to deal with this matter better, it\'s necessary to send this message to your company and confirm whether this company is your distributor or business partner in China?\r\n\r\nBest Regards\r\n***************************************\r\nKevin Liu | Service &amp; Operations Manager\r\nChina Registry (Head Office) | 6012, Xingdi Building, No. 1698 Yishan Road, Shanghai 201103, China\r\nTel: +86-02161918696 | Fax: +86-02161918697 | Mob: +86-13816428671\r\nEmail: kevin@chinaregistry.org.cn\r\nWeb: www.chinaregistry.org.cn\r\n***************************************'),
(63775, 29, 9930, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 04:57:07'),
(63776, 29, 9930, 'submit_ip', '182.86.69.138'),
(63777, 29, 9931, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63778, 29, 9931, 'text-604', 'Arjun Garodia'),
(63779, 29, 9931, 'email-510', 'dabridham@yahoo.co.in'),
(63780, 29, 9931, 'tel-299', '9825146855'),
(63781, 29, 9931, 'your-message', ''),
(63782, 29, 9931, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 05:02:39'),
(63783, 29, 9931, 'submit_ip', '157.32.138.203'),
(63784, 2456, 9932, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63785, 2456, 9932, 'your-name', 'Arjun Garodia'),
(63786, 2456, 9932, 'your-email', 'dabridham@yahoo.in'),
(63787, 2456, 9932, 'tel-971', '9825146855'),
(63788, 2456, 9932, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 05:03:16'),
(63789, 2456, 9932, 'submit_ip', '157.32.138.203'),
(63790, 2456, 9933, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63791, 2456, 9933, 'your-name', 'Arjun Garodia'),
(63792, 2456, 9933, 'your-email', 'dabridham@yahoo.in'),
(63793, 2456, 9933, 'tel-971', '9825146855'),
(63794, 2456, 9933, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 05:03:43'),
(63795, 2456, 9933, 'submit_ip', '157.32.138.203'),
(63796, 1662, 9934, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63797, 1662, 9934, 'your-name', 'Mridul Bhat'),
(63798, 1662, 9934, 'your-email', 'Mridulbhat@gmail.com'),
(63799, 1662, 9934, 'tel-309', '56444261'),
(63800, 1662, 9934, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 05:29:29'),
(63801, 1662, 9934, 'submit_ip', '182.239.82.143'),
(63802, 1662, 9935, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63803, 1662, 9935, 'your-name', 'Ambuj Kumar'),
(63804, 1662, 9935, 'your-email', 'ambuj_999@yahoo.com'),
(63805, 1662, 9935, 'tel-309', '7022715533'),
(63806, 1662, 9935, 'submit_time', '2020-03-30 05:29:41'),
(63807, 1662, 9935, 'submit_ip', '106.200.246.179'),
(63808, 29, 9936, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(63809, 29, 9936, 'text-604', 'Ramneek Kundra'),
(63810, 29, 9936, 'email-510', 'ramneek_kundra89@yahoo.com'),
(63811, 29, 9936, 'tel-299', '9899925380'),
(63812, 29, 9936, 'your-message', 'I\'d like to hear about your PMS.\r\n\r\nThank you'),
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(64198, 29, 9997, 'submit_time', '2020-03-31 07:34:18'),
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(64296, 29, 10013, 'your-message', 'Hello... this is the third time I am sending this.... does this really work????'),
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(64309, 29, 10015, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in your PMS service and like to know bit more about it. Can we connect over a quick call?\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nPrajith Nair. (9003075725)'),
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(64316, 28, 10016, 'your-message', 'am interested in knowing the services offered .'),
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(64339, 2456, 10019, 'submit_ip', '122.176.250.20'),
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(64344, 28, 10020, 'your-message', 'Hi, I would like to get in touch with your team regarding a few questions and to understand the working of your company. Email would be ideal'),
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(64357, 29, 10022, 'your-message', 'Handling a badly hit portfolio of about 1.5 cr. Would like you to take over. '),
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(65314, 29, 10173, 'your-message', 'I want to invest with you. Sent earlier message by mistake for Distributer.'),
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(66881, 28, 10425, 'your-message', 'Dear Mr. Saurabh Mukharjee, \r\n\r\nMy name jayachander Borker. I have been great follower of your insightful articles and news letters. Thank you. \r\n I am writing this query regarding the following: since I do not have your email, I am posting it here. Sorry for that. \r\nI was quite intrigued by the fact that few companies in india go on to dominate market by expanding their profit share. Even though there can be several factors that can be attributed to this effect such as GST, formalization of economy, etc. But I feel that this is probably due to the value migration. While reading a report on value migration by motilal Oswal, I realised that one of the consequences of value migration is that few companies tend emerge winners and they expand thier profit and market share from others. Please note that I am not expert (I come from science), but I intuitively felt this connection between value migration and expanding profit share few companies. If you see that is probably correct, please do let me know. That would be of some help in my reading. Thanks in advance, jayachander'),
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(67512, 28, 10527, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir\r\nKeeping in view of current market scenario, I would like to open a PMS account with your esteem organisation in order to make investment for the long term horizon.\r\n\r\nIn order to open PMS account, I would like to know the procedure and information with respect to the same.'),
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(67519, 29, 10528, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir,\r\nKeeping in view of current market scenario, I would like to open a PMS account with your esteem organisation in order to make investment for the long term horizon.\r\n\r\nIn order to open PMS account, I would like to know the procedure and information with respect to the same.\r\n\r\nKindly get in touch with me on the following details:-\r\nName- Shivam Singhal \r\nMobile no- 9871350976'),
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(67538, 29, 10531, 'your-message', 'I am Singapore based Indian investor. I am interested in signing up for your newsletters and also invest in your funds. Thanks '),
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(69478, 29, 10836, 'your-message', '1. Please respond by email. Please dont call.\r\n2. Interested in your Consistent Compounders PMS. Please confirm fee structure, no-lockin period and &amp; other features.\r\n3. Is it possible to complete the documnetation purely online during the lockdown period?\r\n4. Do you have an option less than 50L?\r\n5. Is possible to consider me my own Distributor and offer me the Distributor Commission?'),
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(71412, 1662, 11144, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 12:31:26'),
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(71415, 1662, 11145, 'your-name', 'Sachin Chhadawa'),
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(71421, 1662, 11146, 'your-name', 'Sankar S Ganesh'),
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(71425, 1662, 11146, 'submit_ip', '106.201.175.212'),
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(71427, 2456, 11147, 'your-name', 'mohit jain'),
(71428, 2456, 11147, 'your-email', 'mohitjain_1995@ymail.com'),
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(71430, 2456, 11147, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 12:52:08'),
(71431, 2456, 11147, 'submit_ip', '49.36.6.202'),
(71432, 29, 11148, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71433, 29, 11148, 'text-604', 'Cyrus Bilimoria'),
(71434, 29, 11148, 'email-510', 'mail.cyrus@gmail.com'),
(71435, 29, 11148, 'tel-299', '09167920160'),
(71436, 29, 11148, 'your-message', 'Want to invest with your PMS. Please call me on 9167920160. '),
(71437, 29, 11148, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:05:17'),
(71438, 29, 11148, 'submit_ip', '42.106.253.156'),
(71439, 2456, 11149, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71440, 2456, 11149, 'your-name', 'Satya Narayan Zindal'),
(71441, 2456, 11149, 'your-email', 'snzindal@gmail.com'),
(71442, 2456, 11149, 'tel-971', '9810040160'),
(71443, 2456, 11149, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:05:50'),
(71444, 2456, 11149, 'submit_ip', '49.36.143.23'),
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(71446, 2456, 11150, 'your-name', 'Ashish '),
(71447, 2456, 11150, 'your-email', 'emailaddress.ashish@gmail.com'),
(71448, 2456, 11150, 'tel-971', '9980233983'),
(71449, 2456, 11150, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:07:26'),
(71450, 2456, 11150, 'submit_ip', '27.7.17.107'),
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(71452, 1662, 11151, 'your-name', 'Satya Narayan Zindal'),
(71453, 1662, 11151, 'your-email', 'snzindal@gmail.com'),
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(71455, 1662, 11151, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:11:43'),
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(71457, 2456, 11152, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71458, 2456, 11152, 'your-name', 'Sachin Chhadawa');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(71459, 2456, 11152, 'your-email', 'sachin@sachinfcs.com'),
(71460, 2456, 11152, 'tel-971', '9920618833'),
(71461, 2456, 11152, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:13:46'),
(71462, 2456, 11152, 'submit_ip', '27.106.61.48'),
(71463, 29, 11153, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71464, 29, 11153, 'text-604', 'Maruti Nandan Rai'),
(71465, 29, 11153, 'email-510', 'nandanrai@gmail.com'),
(71466, 29, 11153, 'tel-299', '+12177213084'),
(71467, 29, 11153, 'your-message', 'Hi, I wanted to know if you offer PMS to NRIs as well?\r\nI found that minimum investment should be 50L INR. I wanted to know if that is a minimum investment amount for entry, or customer will have to maintain this amount even if investment value goes down due to market fall.'),
(71468, 29, 11153, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:15:49'),
(71469, 29, 11153, 'submit_ip', '76.191.31.82'),
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(71471, 1662, 11154, 'your-name', 'Kiruthiga Gopal'),
(71472, 1662, 11154, 'your-email', 'ksgopal82@gmail.com'),
(71473, 1662, 11154, 'tel-309', '07760434506'),
(71474, 1662, 11154, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:31:47'),
(71475, 1662, 11154, 'submit_ip', '122.183.172.122'),
(71476, 29, 11155, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71477, 29, 11155, 'text-604', 'Vikram gilhotra'),
(71478, 29, 11155, 'email-510', 'gilhotravikram@gmail.com'),
(71479, 29, 11155, 'tel-299', '09781303999'),
(71480, 29, 11155, 'your-message', 'Intersted investor'),
(71481, 29, 11155, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:33:54'),
(71482, 29, 11155, 'submit_ip', '169.149.237.130'),
(71483, 2456, 11156, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71484, 2456, 11156, 'your-name', 'Gaurav Sontakke'),
(71485, 2456, 11156, 'your-email', 'gjsontakke16@gmail.com'),
(71486, 2456, 11156, 'tel-971', '7058151641'),
(71487, 2456, 11156, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:37:26'),
(71488, 2456, 11156, 'submit_ip', '157.33.148.225'),
(71489, 1662, 11157, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71490, 1662, 11157, 'your-name', 'Sudhir Maknikar'),
(71491, 1662, 11157, 'your-email', 'sudhirmaknikar@yahoo.com'),
(71492, 1662, 11157, 'tel-309', '09717874646'),
(71493, 1662, 11157, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:38:40'),
(71494, 1662, 11157, 'submit_ip', '122.177.232.204'),
(71495, 29, 11158, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71496, 29, 11158, 'text-604', 'Yuvraj Malhotra'),
(71497, 29, 11158, 'email-510', 'yuvraj.malhotra@gmail.com'),
(71498, 29, 11158, 'tel-299', '9769992070'),
(71499, 29, 11158, 'your-message', 'Am interested in investing in your CCP product. Kindly get in touch on +91 9769992070. Thanks '),
(71500, 29, 11158, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:38:46'),
(71501, 29, 11158, 'submit_ip', '42.106.255.106'),
(71502, 1662, 11159, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71503, 1662, 11159, 'your-name', 'Sudhir Maknikar'),
(71504, 1662, 11159, 'your-email', 'sudhirmaknikar@yahoo.com'),
(71505, 1662, 11159, 'tel-309', '9717874646'),
(71506, 1662, 11159, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:44:04'),
(71507, 1662, 11159, 'submit_ip', '122.177.232.204'),
(71508, 1662, 11160, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71509, 1662, 11160, 'your-name', 'M Baskaran'),
(71510, 1662, 11160, 'your-email', 'baskmanik60@gmail.com'),
(71511, 1662, 11160, 'tel-309', '9496020089'),
(71512, 1662, 11160, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:55:59'),
(71513, 1662, 11160, 'submit_ip', '202.164.148.11'),
(71514, 1662, 11161, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71515, 1662, 11161, 'your-name', 'M baskaran'),
(71516, 1662, 11161, 'your-email', 'baskmanik60@gmail.com'),
(71517, 1662, 11161, 'tel-309', '9496020089'),
(71518, 1662, 11161, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 13:56:46'),
(71519, 1662, 11161, 'submit_ip', '202.164.148.11'),
(71520, 29, 11162, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71521, 29, 11162, 'text-604', 'ABHISHEK SINGH'),
(71522, 29, 11162, 'email-510', 'abhishek99170@gmail.com'),
(71523, 29, 11162, 'tel-299', '9871147079'),
(71524, 29, 11162, 'your-message', ''),
(71525, 29, 11162, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:01:40'),
(71526, 29, 11162, 'submit_ip', '42.109.232.97'),
(71527, 29, 11163, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71528, 29, 11163, 'text-604', 'Pranab Mishra'),
(71529, 29, 11163, 'email-510', 'pranab07@gmail.com'),
(71530, 29, 11163, 'tel-299', '989927745'),
(71531, 29, 11163, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your services. I was bout to close the deal with one of your competition when I happen to find your website. Could you please ask one of your representative to get in touch me urgently this weekend.'),
(71532, 29, 11163, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:08:37'),
(71533, 29, 11163, 'submit_ip', '185.221.69.46'),
(71534, 2456, 11164, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71535, 2456, 11164, 'your-name', 'Andrew'),
(71536, 2456, 11164, 'your-email', 'aamassey@gmail.com'),
(71537, 2456, 11164, 'tel-971', '9871373644'),
(71538, 2456, 11164, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:15:22'),
(71539, 2456, 11164, 'submit_ip', '223.235.79.207'),
(71540, 1662, 11165, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71541, 1662, 11165, 'your-name', 'M Baskaran'),
(71542, 1662, 11165, 'your-email', 'baskmanik60@gmail.com'),
(71543, 1662, 11165, 'tel-309', '9496020089'),
(71544, 1662, 11165, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:21:32'),
(71545, 1662, 11165, 'submit_ip', '202.164.148.11'),
(71546, 29, 11166, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71547, 29, 11166, 'text-604', 'Neeraj Gupta'),
(71548, 29, 11166, 'email-510', 'NEERAJ.GUPT@GMAIL.COM'),
(71549, 29, 11166, 'tel-299', '09902036936'),
(71550, 29, 11166, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\n\r\nI would like to know about your services and the ticket size, you work with for portfolio management. \r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nNeeraj'),
(71551, 29, 11166, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:23:19'),
(71552, 29, 11166, 'submit_ip', '148.64.4.91'),
(71553, 1662, 11167, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71554, 1662, 11167, 'your-name', 'Andrew'),
(71555, 1662, 11167, 'your-email', 'aamassey@gmail.com'),
(71556, 1662, 11167, 'tel-309', '9871373644'),
(71557, 1662, 11167, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:27:00'),
(71558, 1662, 11167, 'submit_ip', '223.235.79.207'),
(71559, 1662, 11168, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71560, 1662, 11168, 'your-name', 'Vipin Bansal'),
(71561, 1662, 11168, 'your-email', 'vipin.dce@gmail.com'),
(71562, 1662, 11168, 'tel-309', '09999027092'),
(71563, 1662, 11168, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:28:54'),
(71564, 1662, 11168, 'submit_ip', '49.207.58.236'),
(71565, 29, 11169, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71566, 29, 11169, 'text-604', 'Karan kukreja'),
(71567, 29, 11169, 'email-510', 'karankukreja2011@gmail.com'),
(71568, 29, 11169, 'tel-299', '9022223868'),
(71569, 29, 11169, 'your-message', 'I would like to do investment \r\nAs im beginner for stock market \r\nSo i need advisory'),
(71570, 29, 11169, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:30:26'),
(71571, 29, 11169, 'submit_ip', '106.200.108.25'),
(71572, 29, 11170, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71573, 29, 11170, 'text-604', 'Prashanth'),
(71574, 29, 11170, 'email-510', 'prashanth0963@gmail.com'),
(71575, 29, 11170, 'tel-299', '9989169609'),
(71576, 29, 11170, 'your-message', 'Hi sir... I want to start investing in trades... Suggestions needed sir\r\n'),
(71577, 29, 11170, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:36:12'),
(71578, 29, 11170, 'submit_ip', '27.59.249.141'),
(71579, 1662, 11171, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71580, 1662, 11171, 'your-name', 'Prashanth'),
(71581, 1662, 11171, 'your-email', 'prashanth0963@gmail.com'),
(71582, 1662, 11171, 'tel-309', '9989169609'),
(71583, 1662, 11171, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:36:50'),
(71584, 1662, 11171, 'submit_ip', '27.59.249.141'),
(71585, 1662, 11172, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71586, 1662, 11172, 'your-name', 'chandan mittal'),
(71587, 1662, 11172, 'your-email', 'chandanmittal@gmail.com'),
(71588, 1662, 11172, 'tel-309', '9582053841'),
(71589, 1662, 11172, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:51:27'),
(71590, 1662, 11172, 'submit_ip', '103.66.209.37'),
(71591, 29, 11173, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71592, 29, 11173, 'text-604', 'Manish Poddar'),
(71593, 29, 11173, 'email-510', 'manishp_7@rediff.com'),
(71594, 29, 11173, 'tel-299', '9932681360'),
(71595, 29, 11173, 'your-message', 'Hi Rakshit. Can you share the list of companies that Marcellus is tracking. In the PMSbazaar webinar you spoke about a two wheeler company and mentioned that its the only auto manufacturer thats on the watchlist. Thanks'),
(71596, 29, 11173, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 14:54:14'),
(71597, 29, 11173, 'submit_ip', '49.36.140.235'),
(71598, 29, 11174, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71599, 29, 11174, 'text-604', 'amit deshmukh'),
(71600, 29, 11174, 'email-510', 'amitvd0003@gmail.com'),
(71601, 29, 11174, 'tel-299', '09890012311'),
(71602, 29, 11174, 'your-message', 'Please send ur pms details for stocks '),
(71603, 29, 11174, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:08:23'),
(71604, 29, 11174, 'submit_ip', '157.33.39.167'),
(71605, 1662, 11175, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71606, 1662, 11175, 'your-name', 'Santhini'),
(71607, 1662, 11175, 'your-email', 'santhini.sankar@gmail.com'),
(71608, 1662, 11175, 'tel-309', '9092424214'),
(71609, 1662, 11175, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:12:53'),
(71610, 1662, 11175, 'submit_ip', '49.15.216.60'),
(71611, 2456, 11176, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71612, 2456, 11176, 'your-name', 'Santhini'),
(71613, 2456, 11176, 'your-email', 'santhini.sankar@gmail.com'),
(71614, 2456, 11176, 'tel-971', '9092424214'),
(71615, 2456, 11176, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:18:34'),
(71616, 2456, 11176, 'submit_ip', '49.15.216.60'),
(71617, 28, 11177, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71618, 28, 11177, 'text-996', 'Kapoor'),
(71619, 28, 11177, 'email-563', 'kapoorbc@yahoo.com'),
(71620, 28, 11177, 'tel-182', '9822257172'),
(71621, 28, 11177, 'your-message', 'Urgent Enquiry....\r\nFilled up this form earlier too, but no response since last 10-12 days...???'),
(71622, 28, 11177, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:24:27'),
(71623, 28, 11177, 'submit_ip', '103.68.33.194'),
(71624, 1662, 11178, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71625, 1662, 11178, 'your-name', 'Preeti Jain'),
(71626, 1662, 11178, 'your-email', 'preeti75_jain@yahoo.com'),
(71627, 1662, 11178, 'tel-309', '9319573048'),
(71628, 1662, 11178, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:32:43'),
(71629, 1662, 11178, 'submit_ip', '106.198.205.3'),
(71630, 2456, 11179, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71631, 2456, 11179, 'your-name', 'Preeti Jain'),
(71632, 2456, 11179, 'your-email', 'preeti75_jain@yahoo.com'),
(71633, 2456, 11179, 'tel-971', '9319573048'),
(71634, 2456, 11179, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:34:11'),
(71635, 2456, 11179, 'submit_ip', '106.198.143.243'),
(71636, 29, 11180, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71637, 29, 11180, 'text-604', 'Kishor thakkar'),
(71638, 29, 11180, 'email-510', 'kishorthakkar67@yahoo.com'),
(71639, 29, 11180, 'tel-299', '09879534087'),
(71640, 29, 11180, 'your-message', ''),
(71641, 29, 11180, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 15:46:18'),
(71642, 29, 11180, 'submit_ip', '49.36.68.231'),
(71643, 1662, 11181, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71644, 1662, 11181, 'your-name', 'Shray Jindal'),
(71645, 1662, 11181, 'your-email', 'shrayjindal@gmail.com'),
(71646, 1662, 11181, 'tel-309', '9810399222'),
(71647, 1662, 11181, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 16:22:34'),
(71648, 1662, 11181, 'submit_ip', '103.46.200.207'),
(71649, 1662, 11182, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71650, 1662, 11182, 'your-name', 'Mohinder Singh'),
(71651, 1662, 11182, 'your-email', 'mohinder.singh@enamamc.com'),
(71652, 1662, 11182, 'tel-309', '9819710106'),
(71653, 1662, 11182, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 16:37:58'),
(71654, 1662, 11182, 'submit_ip', '202.134.170.172'),
(71655, 1662, 11183, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71656, 1662, 11183, 'your-name', 'sahaj'),
(71657, 1662, 11183, 'your-email', 'sahajmakharia@gmail.com'),
(71658, 1662, 11183, 'tel-309', '9284509040'),
(71659, 1662, 11183, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 16:38:28'),
(71660, 1662, 11183, 'submit_ip', '123.201.73.146'),
(71661, 29, 11184, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71662, 29, 11184, 'text-604', 'Meet shah'),
(71663, 29, 11184, 'email-510', 'meet2341991@gmail.com'),
(71664, 29, 11184, 'tel-299', '+962798782462'),
(71665, 29, 11184, 'your-message', 'I want to know more about your products as well as portfolio management scheme'),
(71666, 29, 11184, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 17:04:44'),
(71667, 29, 11184, 'submit_ip', '91.186.248.175'),
(71668, 1662, 11185, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71669, 1662, 11185, 'your-name', 'Chandan'),
(71670, 1662, 11185, 'your-email', 'chandanmittal@gmail.com'),
(71671, 1662, 11185, 'tel-309', '9582053841'),
(71672, 1662, 11185, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 17:07:37'),
(71673, 1662, 11185, 'submit_ip', '103.66.209.37'),
(71674, 1662, 11186, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71675, 1662, 11186, 'your-name', 'Piyush Sharma'),
(71676, 1662, 11186, 'your-email', 'sharmapiyush82@gmail.com'),
(71677, 1662, 11186, 'tel-309', '9784266669'),
(71678, 1662, 11186, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 17:21:52'),
(71679, 1662, 11186, 'submit_ip', '27.63.115.37'),
(71680, 1662, 11187, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71681, 1662, 11187, 'your-name', 'Balaji'),
(71682, 1662, 11187, 'your-email', 'sbalaji82@gmail.com'),
(71683, 1662, 11187, 'tel-309', '8850325163'),
(71684, 1662, 11187, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 17:33:44'),
(71685, 1662, 11187, 'submit_ip', '223.182.187.231'),
(71686, 29, 11188, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71687, 29, 11188, 'text-604', 'Sagir. A'),
(71688, 29, 11188, 'email-510', 'asagir@rediffmail.com'),
(71689, 29, 11188, 'tel-299', '966555185325'),
(71690, 29, 11188, 'your-message', 'Am interested in your PMS scheme.  Am an NRI and already have a PINS account with ICICI Direct.  As per prevailing rules, I cannot open another PINS.  With advisory PMS can work for me?  Else, what are other options available?  '),
(71691, 29, 11188, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 18:02:18'),
(71692, 29, 11188, 'submit_ip', '94.98.218.160'),
(71693, 1662, 11189, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71694, 1662, 11189, 'your-name', 'mayank kaurani'),
(71695, 1662, 11189, 'your-email', 'drkaurani@gmail.com'),
(71696, 1662, 11189, 'tel-309', '9829052225'),
(71697, 1662, 11189, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 18:17:19'),
(71698, 1662, 11189, 'submit_ip', '182.68.153.72'),
(71699, 29, 11190, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71700, 29, 11190, 'text-604', 'Shray Jindal'),
(71701, 29, 11190, 'email-510', 'shrayjindal@gmail.com'),
(71702, 29, 11190, 'tel-299', '9810399222'),
(71703, 29, 11190, 'your-message', 'Looking to take up PMS.'),
(71704, 29, 11190, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 18:57:40'),
(71705, 29, 11190, 'submit_ip', '103.46.200.207'),
(71706, 29, 11191, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71707, 29, 11191, 'text-604', 'Amit patel'),
(71708, 29, 11191, 'email-510', 'kelvienterprise@gmail.com'),
(71709, 29, 11191, 'tel-299', '9998056516'),
(71710, 29, 11191, 'your-message', ''),
(71711, 29, 11191, 'submit_time', '2020-04-17 19:41:33'),
(71712, 29, 11191, 'submit_ip', '157.32.163.0'),
(71713, 2456, 11192, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(71714, 2456, 11192, 'your-name', 'Jagdish Raut'),
(71715, 2456, 11192, 'your-email', 'jag1244raut@gmail.com'),
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(73128, 29, 11414, 'your-message', 'Does it really matter if i invest directly in your PMS - both Little Champs + Consistent Compounders or invest through your distributor.\r\nThanks\r\nAmal'),
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(73202, 29, 11426, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\n\r\nI have invested in your PMS through one of your distributors 3 months ago but have not got the login details yet. Can you please provide me login details so I can track my portfolio ?\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nRamakrishna'),
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(73764, 29, 11515, 'your-message', 'Listen,\r\n\r\nThere’s one thing better than f\'r.ee traffic, and that’s passive, organic traffic that keeps coming in steadily with ZERO effort from you – ever!\r\n\r\nMy friends Yogesh Agarwal and venkata has launched a platform that has been able to bring in literally tons of visitors to their users \r\n\r\nHOW IS THIS Even Possible?\r\n\r\nIt’s simple…\r\n\r\nThey’ve created a software that leverages the mighty Google for hundreds of Free BUYERS…\r\n\r\n&gt;&gt; https://bit.ly/vSuites\r\n\r\nNow this software completely automates all the manual work for you…\r\n\r\nAnd the best part?\r\n\r\nIt 100% complies with Google, which mean evergreen passive traffic and sales for you…\r\n\r\nNo Tech Skills Or Experience Needed...\r\n\r\nNo Hidden Or Monthly Fees...\r\n\r\nNo Video Creation Required\r\n\r\nCheck out a demo here:\r\n&gt;&gt; https://bit.ly/vSuites\r\n\r\nWishing you all the best'),
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(73897, 29, 11536, 'your-message', 'Dear Team,\r\nHope this finds you and your family in best of health.\r\n\r\nBy profession I am Line Captain (Pilot) at Vistara.\r\n\r\nI came across your service through recent videos on Youtube. The philosophy you follow attracted my attention where in I am in agreement with the same that growth opportunity is higher compared to conventional notion.\r\n\r\nThough I am interested in availing your services, I then came across your website which mentions min investment amount is 50 Lacs.\r\n\r\nIn the same line I would like to clear some apprehensions, whether it would  be possible for you to take over my current investments which is amounting current valuation of below amount .:\r\n\r\nMFs 30 Lacs\r\nStocks 9 Lacs \r\n\r\ni.e. 39 Lacs in total as on day, thereafter I for-see a linear increase to a total of 50 Lacs by Sept 2020 vide my Salaries.\r\n\r\nLooking forward to hearing from you.'),
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(73992, 28, 11551, 'your-message', ' \r\nЖелаете &quot;прикончить&quot; онлайн-сайт вашего конкурента? Мы можем помочь. \r\nИспользуем очень эффективные технологии: \r\n- Уничтожаем сайты по каким угодно ключам. \r\n- Тысячи спамных беклинков. \r\n- Заспамленость главного емаила организации письмами с сомнительными рассылками \r\n- Понижение позиций онлайн-ресурса в поисковике по любым коммерческим ключевым словам. \r\n- Секретная методика. Опыт работы больше 10 лет. \r\n- Стопроцентная гарантия возврата денег в случае неудачи. \r\n- 100% отчет. \r\n- Секретность заказов. Про нашу деятельность никто не узнает. \r\n \r\nСтоимость  $50 \r\nПолная отчётность. \r\nОплата: Киви, Yandex.Money, Bitcoin, Visa, MasterCard... \r\nТелега: @exrumer \r\nWhatssap: +7(906)5312155 \r\nViber: +79775255462  \r\nSkype: XRumer.pro \r\nemail: support@xrumer.club'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(74088, 29, 11566, 'your-message', 'Hi, my portfolio is managed by Mumbai advisory and research pvt ltd. In 2015 i invested into indian markets eqv to approx usd 3000000 @ 64/usd. My portfolio was positive 90% in jan 2018. In 2018 jan i added additional approx usd 2.000.000. Since than till date my portfolio have plunged from 55cr to 32cr down 40‰ in inr terms and 52‰ in usd terms gradually over 30months time. I pay advisory fees 1% incl taxes annually to advisory pvt ltd. Every  trade i approve over email. I opened pis ac and nre ac with hdfc bank. I report my Indian tax returns annually to an auditor based in mumbai. At present i m holding 19 scripts in my portfolio mainly mid caps and small caps. I can email you my confidential excel corpus and MIS prepared by them. Past 1 month this manager managing my corpus has turned pessimistic i ve never hassled him and infact given him space and valued his opinion, therefore i wish to transfer my portfolio to yr firm (i ve seen yr various webinars on you tube) perhaps you can churn and manage. I ve invested in indian markets from early 2015 and till date have not gained in my invesements. I lost all my gains from 2015 to 2018 and lost my capital investment 15% as of yesterdays closing.  '),
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(74123, 2456, 11572, 'your-email', 'SGGILDA@YAHOO.CO.IN'),
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(74135, 2456, 11574, 'your-email', 'mayankjaiswal09@gmail.com'),
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(74156, 1662, 11577, 'submit_ip', '49.35.102.142'),
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(74159, 28, 11578, 'email-563', 'shriram.ranade@gmail.com'),
(74160, 28, 11578, 'tel-182', '9657716021'),
(74161, 28, 11578, 'your-message', 'I am interested to join for the little champs. Have few questions and need to talk to your sales team for this. please contact me, thanks '),
(74162, 28, 11578, 'submit_time', '2020-04-23 07:13:51'),
(74163, 28, 11578, 'submit_ip', '103.82.41.58'),
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(74167, 29, 11579, 'tel-299', '9657716021'),
(74168, 29, 11579, 'your-message', 'I am an individual investor &amp; interested to join the Little Champs. I have few questions and want to talk to your sales team. Can you please contact me? '),
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(74170, 29, 11579, 'submit_ip', '103.82.41.58'),
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(74175, 1662, 11580, 'submit_time', '2020-04-23 07:22:12'),
(74176, 1662, 11580, 'submit_ip', '47.11.7.80'),
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(74182, 1662, 11581, 'submit_ip', '47.11.7.80'),
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(74185, 1662, 11582, 'your-email', 'rkalra99@gmail.com'),
(74186, 1662, 11582, 'tel-309', '9833955521'),
(74187, 1662, 11582, 'submit_time', '2020-04-23 07:33:36'),
(74188, 1662, 11582, 'submit_ip', '116.72.135.70'),
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(74191, 1662, 11583, 'your-email', 'deepankur.gupta@gmail.com'),
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(74193, 1662, 11583, 'submit_time', '2020-04-23 07:36:54'),
(74194, 1662, 11583, 'submit_ip', '182.68.201.14'),
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(74198, 28, 11584, 'tel-182', '9876543210'),
(74199, 28, 11584, 'your-message', 'Dear Madame, Dear Sirs! \r\n \r\nWe offer sending newsletters via contact forms to the sites of companies via all countries and domain zones of the world.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour message is sent to email address of business organization 100% will get to the inbox! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - 20 $. \r\nWe need from You only email address, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of sites- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \r\nCompanies and Enterprises of Russia - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases for sending newsletters: \r\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 1557405 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - 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$50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 562558 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - $50 \r\n.cheap 3267 websites - $30 \r\n.christmas 15255 websites - $50 \r\n.church 24104 websites - $50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - $50 \r\n.community 15013 websites - $50 \r\n.company 64217 websites - $50 \r\n.computer 5539 websites - $30 \r\n.condos	2192 websites - $30 \r\n.construction 7104 websites - $30 \r\n.consulting 27128 websites - $50 \r\n.contractors 3982 websites - $30 \r\n.cooking 1476 websites - $30 \r\n.cool 22008 websites - $50 \r\n.coop 7479 websites - $30 \r\n.corsica 1042 websites - $30 \r\n.country 7144 websites - $30 \r\n.cr 7934 websites - $30 \r\n.credit	4020 websites - $30 \r\n.creditcard 825 websites - $30 \r\n.creditunion 511 websites - $30 \r\n.cricket 33413 websites - $50 \r\n.cruises 2234 websites - $30 \r\n.cu 137 websites - $30 \r\n.cv 2279 websites - $30 \r\n.cx 15753 websites - $50 \r\n.cy 11092 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.cy 710 websites International zone Cyprus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.cymru 7314 websites - $30 \r\n.cz 1001208 websites Czech Republic - $100 \r\n.cz 193400 websites International zone Czech Republic:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi.asia-$50 \r\n.dance	7490 websites - $30 \r\n.date 10800 websites - $50 \r\n.dating	2892 websites - $30 \r\n.de 15078512 websites Germany - $450 \r\n.de 3894156 websites International zone Germany:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$200 \r\n.deals 8332 websites - $30 \r\n.degree	2178 websites - $30 \r\n.delivery 6282 websites - $30 \r\n.democrat 1072 websites - $30 \r\n.dental 7841 websites - $30 \r\n.dentist 3046 websites - $30 \r\n.desi 2647 websites - $50 \r\n.design 103712 websites - $50 \r\n.dev	190456 websites - $50 \r\n.diamonds 2730 websites - $30 \r\n.diet 18291 websites - $50 \r\n.digital 49449 websites - $50 \r\n.direct 12129 websites - $50 \r\n.directory 15157 websites - $50 \r\n.discount 3898 websites - $30 \r\n.dj 7680 websites - $30 \r\n.dk 1319155 websites Denmark - $100 \r\n.dk 148164 websites International zone Denmark:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dm 23318 websites - $50 \r\n.do 5255 websites Dominican Republic- $30 \r\n.doctor	5601 websites - $30 \r\n.dog 10030 websites - 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(74880, 28, 11685, 'your-message', 'Dear sirs, Dear Madame! \r\n \r\nNewsletters of Your messages via contact configurationss to the sites of business organizations via all domain zones of the world in any languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nThe commercial offer is sent to email of firm 100% will get to the inbox! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\n10000 messages on foreign zones to your email address - 20 $. \r\nWe need from You only email address, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price there are more 800 databases for all domains of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domains- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domain names - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domains - 200$ \r\nCompanies and Enterprises of RF - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russian Federation are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of sites - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases: \r\nWHOIS databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPls., do not respond to this message from your electronic box, as it has been generated automatically and will not reach us! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 1557405 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - 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$50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 562558 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - 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$50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - 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(75575, 28, 11794, 'your-message', 'Blockchain system automatically credits up to 11 bitcoins every 2 days to each participant  \r\n \r\nHow it works:   \r\n \r\nFill out the registration form in the project. \r\n \r\nEnter the address of the Bitcoin wallet (the one to which payments from the project will come) \r\n \r\nIndicate the correct e-mail address for communication. \r\n \r\nRead the FAQ section and get rich along with other project participants. \r\nGet + 10% every 2 days to your personal Bitcoin wallet in addition to your balance. \r\n \r\n \r\nRegister and receive a guaranteed payment from 0,0075 BTC to 11 BTC:   \r\nhttps://www.crypto-mmm.com/?source=getbitco  \r\n \r\n \r\nThere are no restrictions - your bitcoins in your personal bitcoin wallet are available for use 24 hours a day!'),
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(75580, 28, 11795, 'text-996', 'Paresh Sanghani '),
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(75583, 28, 11795, 'your-message', 'Hi. I wanted to inquire if there was an option available for IFAs to distribute the Pms to their clients. Thanks. '),
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(75590, 28, 11796, 'your-message', 'Hi. I wanted to inquire if there was an option available for IFAs to distribute the Pms to their clients. Thanks. '),
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(75668, 29, 11808, 'submit_time', '2020-04-27 11:05:12'),
(75669, 29, 11808, 'submit_ip', '49.207.135.240'),
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(75674, 29, 11809, 'your-message', 'Hello there, \r\n\r\nI am Raghavendra, a 26 year old software professional. Really like the Marcellus philosophy. A fan of Saurabh\'s talks!\r\n\r\nI see that the minimum to get in is 50 Lakh INR. I am not sure if this is because of the SEBI regulation. \r\n\r\nIs there anyway to get started at a lower level and gradually move there in 12-18 months? Any other solutions for relatively younger professionals?'),
(75675, 29, 11809, 'submit_time', '2020-04-27 11:05:40'),
(75676, 29, 11809, 'submit_ip', '49.207.135.240'),
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(75681, 29, 11810, 'your-message', 'Hello there, \r\n\r\nI am Raghavendra, a 26 year old software professional. Really like the Marcellus philosophy. A fan of Saurabh\'s talks!\r\n\r\nI see that the minimum to get in is 50 Lakh INR. I am not sure if this is because of the SEBI regulation. \r\n\r\nIs there anyway to get started at a lower level and gradually move there in 12-18 months? Any other solutions for relatively younger professionals?'),
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(75683, 29, 11810, 'submit_ip', '49.207.135.240'),
(75684, 1662, 11811, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(75689, 1662, 11811, 'submit_ip', '117.216.133.15'),
(75690, 29, 11812, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75691, 29, 11812, 'text-604', 'Naresh Paryani'),
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(75697, 28, 11813, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(75803, 2456, 11827, 'submit_ip', '49.33.130.19'),
(75804, 1662, 11828, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75805, 1662, 11828, 'your-name', 'Robertimimb'),
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(75814, 28, 11829, 'tel-182', '87862444598'),
(75815, 28, 11829, 'your-message', 'The experts working for us on case studies can actually provide you with all the help needed to solve case study assignment help. A student who is looking to have complete solution of their case studies can contact us and we will assure you high quality work. \r\n&lt;a href=http://tylerabrasivesinc.casestudylotus.com&gt;Hire us&lt;/a&gt;'),
(75816, 28, 11829, 'submit', 'Submit'),
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(75818, 28, 11829, 'submit_ip', '5.189.188.87'),
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(75820, 28, 11830, 'text-996', 'ANKUSH KATYAL'),
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(75822, 28, 11830, 'tel-182', '+60193265179'),
(75823, 28, 11830, 'your-message', 'Hey, Would like to know your offerings for NRI\'s (I\'m based in Malaysia). '),
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(75825, 28, 11830, 'submit_ip', '60.50.234.128'),
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(75831, 1662, 11831, 'submit_ip', '1.38.221.114'),
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(75833, 1662, 11832, 'your-name', 'ben zion satamkar'),
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(75837, 1662, 11832, 'submit_ip', '109.186.13.25'),
(75838, 1662, 11833, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75839, 1662, 11833, 'your-name', 'Shruti Bangera'),
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(75843, 1662, 11833, 'submit_ip', '49.32.30.169'),
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(75845, 1662, 11834, 'your-name', 'Marcuslek'),
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(75850, 1662, 11834, 'submit_ip', '5.189.188.87'),
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(75852, 1662, 11835, 'your-name', 'hem tejuja'),
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(75856, 1662, 11835, 'submit_ip', '106.209.185.77'),
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(75862, 2456, 11836, 'submit_ip', '124.123.83.110'),
(75863, 29, 11837, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75864, 29, 11837, 'text-604', 'Balasubrahmanyam Korni'),
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(75866, 29, 11837, 'tel-299', '+642108248123'),
(75867, 29, 11837, 'your-message', 'Hi Marcellus. Good Morning. I am follower of Mr. Saourabh Mukherjea. I read his books, Gurus of Chaos, Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires. \r\nI would like to invest in consistent compounders PMS through your PMS. Can you please inform details of investment. Please provide your contact number , if you are free to talk, I am happy to talk to you.\r\nRegards,\r\nBalasubrahmanyam'),
(75868, 29, 11837, 'submit_time', '2020-04-27 23:12:42'),
(75869, 29, 11837, 'submit_ip', '203.97.200.146'),
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(75875, 1662, 11838, 'submit_ip', '203.97.200.146'),
(75876, 1662, 11839, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75877, 1662, 11839, 'your-name', 'Vathanan'),
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(75879, 1662, 11839, 'tel-309', '+916384163250'),
(75880, 1662, 11839, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 02:32:23'),
(75881, 1662, 11839, 'submit_ip', '176.202.93.139'),
(75882, 28, 11840, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75883, 28, 11840, 'text-996', 'Ankush Bagwale'),
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(75885, 28, 11840, 'tel-182', '+32493355261'),
(75886, 28, 11840, 'your-message', 'I have really liked your investment philisophy and the efforts you put into investing. \r\nBut I do not have 50 lacs capital . Can I start with a small investment?\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nAnkush Bagwale'),
(75887, 28, 11840, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 03:28:35'),
(75888, 28, 11840, 'submit_ip', '81.245.107.43'),
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(75890, 29, 11841, 'text-604', 'Ankush'),
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(75893, 29, 11841, 'your-message', 'I have really liked your investment philisophy and the efforts you put into investing. \r\nBut I do not have 50 lacs capital . Can I start with a small investment?\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nAnkush Bagwale'),
(75894, 29, 11841, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 03:28:50'),
(75895, 29, 11841, 'submit_ip', '81.245.107.43'),
(75896, 29, 11842, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75897, 29, 11842, 'text-604', 'Chaitanya rao'),
(75898, 29, 11842, 'email-510', 'drchaitanya@raosentcare.com'),
(75899, 29, 11842, 'tel-299', '9989225035'),
(75900, 29, 11842, 'your-message', 'Interested in investing'),
(75901, 29, 11842, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 03:43:26'),
(75902, 29, 11842, 'submit_ip', '49.204.184.53'),
(75903, 29, 11843, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75904, 29, 11843, 'text-604', 'sunil bhatia'),
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(75906, 29, 11843, 'tel-299', '9958331175'),
(75907, 29, 11843, 'your-message', 'regret to write 3rd n last time writing to you. no response from marcellus.\r\ninterested in investing in ur pms. pls call 9958331175'),
(75908, 29, 11843, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 04:12:52'),
(75909, 29, 11843, 'submit_ip', '42.108.171.11'),
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(75911, 29, 11844, 'text-604', 'Ajay Dhoundiyal'),
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(75913, 29, 11844, 'tel-299', '9971426667'),
(75914, 29, 11844, 'your-message', 'Dear Team,\r\n            I want to start with 50 lac with you. Please call me I have few questions.'),
(75915, 29, 11844, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 04:34:40'),
(75916, 29, 11844, 'submit_ip', '139.167.30.93'),
(75917, 3184, 11845, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(75922, 3184, 11845, 'your-message', 'this is test'),
(75923, 3184, 11845, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 05:15:18'),
(75924, 3184, 11845, 'submit_ip', '47.31.115.252'),
(75925, 28, 11846, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75926, 28, 11846, 'text-996', 'Siddhartha Gangwal'),
(75927, 28, 11846, 'email-563', 'siddhartha@ploutosadvisors.com'),
(75928, 28, 11846, 'tel-182', '9644120002'),
(75929, 28, 11846, 'your-message', 'Hi whats the procedure to get empaneled with Marcellus. '),
(75930, 28, 11846, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 05:40:41'),
(75931, 28, 11846, 'submit_ip', '49.36.59.69'),
(75932, 1662, 11847, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75933, 1662, 11847, 'your-name', 'Amar Bhagat'),
(75934, 1662, 11847, 'your-email', 'CA.AMARNBHAGAT@YAHOO.COM'),
(75935, 1662, 11847, 'tel-309', '9773445779'),
(75936, 1662, 11847, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 05:58:16'),
(75937, 1662, 11847, 'submit_ip', '116.72.115.136'),
(75938, 3184, 11848, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75939, 3184, 11848, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(75940, 3184, 11848, 'text-172', 'Nitesh Test'),
(75941, 3184, 11848, 'email-503', 'nitesh@marcellus.in'),
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(75943, 3184, 11848, 'your-message', 'Test'),
(75944, 3184, 11848, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 06:32:46'),
(75945, 3184, 11848, 'submit_ip', '49.36.132.64'),
(75946, 1662, 11849, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(75958, 3184, 11851, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75959, 3184, 11851, 'menu-596', 'Others'),
(75960, 3184, 11851, 'text-172', 'Test'),
(75961, 3184, 11851, 'email-503', 'test1@gmail.com'),
(75962, 3184, 11851, 'tel-800', '8888888888'),
(75963, 3184, 11851, 'your-message', 'test'),
(75964, 3184, 11851, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 06:38:30'),
(75965, 3184, 11851, 'submit_ip', '223.229.136.176'),
(75966, 3184, 11852, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75967, 3184, 11852, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(75968, 3184, 11852, 'text-172', 'Rohan '),
(75969, 3184, 11852, 'email-503', 'rohannaswa@gmail.com'),
(75970, 3184, 11852, 'tel-800', '9990214345'),
(75971, 3184, 11852, 'your-message', 'I want to start pms, kindly contact me at the earliest'),
(75972, 3184, 11852, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 06:43:05'),
(75973, 3184, 11852, 'submit_ip', '182.68.44.149'),
(75974, 1662, 11853, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75975, 1662, 11853, 'your-name', 'Maannak Gaushhal'),
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(75977, 1662, 11853, 'tel-309', '9697906000'),
(75978, 1662, 11853, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 07:00:03'),
(75979, 1662, 11853, 'submit_ip', '106.201.86.93'),
(75980, 3184, 11854, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75981, 3184, 11854, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(75982, 3184, 11854, 'text-172', 'Akhilesh Rai'),
(75983, 3184, 11854, 'email-503', 'akhilesh.rai@gmail.com'),
(75984, 3184, 11854, 'tel-800', '9935399940'),
(75985, 3184, 11854, 'your-message', 'Will like to invest in your schemes.'),
(75986, 3184, 11854, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 07:44:37'),
(75987, 3184, 11854, 'submit_ip', '117.96.5.211'),
(75988, 2456, 11855, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75989, 2456, 11855, 'your-name', 'MITESH M MEHTA'),
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(75991, 2456, 11855, 'tel-971', '9619822344'),
(75992, 2456, 11855, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 08:28:56'),
(75993, 2456, 11855, 'submit_ip', '175.100.177.26'),
(75994, 1662, 11856, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(75995, 1662, 11856, 'your-name', 'Manoj Kumar Tibrewal '),
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(75997, 1662, 11856, 'tel-309', '9894210772'),
(75998, 1662, 11856, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 10:26:37'),
(75999, 1662, 11856, 'submit_ip', '122.178.99.146'),
(76000, 3184, 11857, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76002, 3184, 11857, 'text-172', 'hrishikesh'),
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(76004, 3184, 11857, 'tel-800', '9823355045 '),
(76005, 3184, 11857, 'your-message', 'Hello Sir, \r\nI am retail investor, just though to drop a note - your unusual billionaire book hard copy is not available online -Amazon or Flip-kart. \r\nthough to inform you, kindly make it available. Thanks \r\n\r\nwith regards,\r\nHrishikesh  '),
(76006, 3184, 11857, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 10:28:27'),
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(76135, 3184, 11878, 'your-message', 'Dear Mr.Saurabh, \r\n\r\nI hope this message finds you well. \r\n\r\nI have been following your investing journey for sometime now. I have watched a few of your webinars and lectures online as well. I find your investment process to be very intriguing and your work speak for itself. \r\n\r\nI would be interesting in exploring the option of taking part in your investing solutions (PMS if we must label it). I was wondering where we could begin this process? \r\n\r\nLook forward to hearing from you. Thank you for your time. \r\n\r\nBest,\r\n\r\nRishabh'),
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(76162, 3184, 11882, 'your-message', 'interested in investing in pms '),
(76163, 3184, 11882, 'submit_time', '2020-04-28 21:32:47'),
(76164, 3184, 11882, 'submit_ip', '157.38.160.148'),
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(76169, 3184, 11883, 'tel-800', '9987457870'),
(76170, 3184, 11883, 'your-message', 'Hello Sir,\r\nAny Summer internship is available? If yes How can I get in touch with you.'),
(76171, 3184, 11883, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 06:39:08'),
(76172, 3184, 11883, 'submit_ip', '45.119.13.111'),
(76173, 3184, 11884, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76175, 3184, 11884, 'text-172', 'Nalam Sowbhagya Lakshmi'),
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(76177, 3184, 11884, 'tel-800', '8451923238'),
(76178, 3184, 11884, 'your-message', 'I am living in Muscat with my husband who is a doctor. Is there a way for us to invest now while we are in Muscat ?'),
(76179, 3184, 11884, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 07:08:57'),
(76180, 3184, 11884, 'submit_ip', '5.36.36.220'),
(76181, 3184, 11885, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76183, 3184, 11885, 'text-172', 'Shaurya Bajaj'),
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(76185, 3184, 11885, 'tel-800', '09810215902'),
(76186, 3184, 11885, 'your-message', 'Hello to the Marcellus Team, \r\n\r\nThis is Shaurya Bajaj from New Delhi. \r\nFirstly, I can bring business of INR 3-5 crores to your fund through a few high net wroth individuals looking to invest right now. \r\n\r\nAlso I strongly  believe in the Marcellus\' portfolios, especially Little Champs. I would like to become a part of the Marcellus team to help you market and distribute your products as well. \r\n\r\nPlease feel free to contact me if you are looking to expand your business development team. \r\n\r\n'),
(76187, 3184, 11885, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 07:20:44'),
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(76205, 3184, 11888, 'tel-800', '(03) 5311 5686'),
(76206, 3184, 11888, 'your-message', 'Hi Everyone,\r\n\r\nI want to send you good wishes &amp; good health in your future studies.\r\nI have a couple reading assignments for you.\r\n\r\n1984 by George Orwell\r\nBrave New World by Aldous Huxley\r\n\r\nWhat is happening now is criminal. I urge you to write local and federal goverments and voice your disgust with how they are handling this situation. \r\n\r\nYou should voice your opinion everywhere you go.\r\nYou will not be manipulated by fear.\r\n\r\nI urge you to do research and to think for yourself and question everything that government tells you.\r\n\r\nPlease share these links, we need to end this crime against us. \r\n\r\n\r\nImportant News Feeds\r\n\r\nhttps://bitcoinblockhalf.com\r\nhttps://londonreal.tv\r\nhttps://www.davidicke.com\r\nhttps://www.drudgereport.com\r\nhttps://www.zerohedge.com\r\nhttps://www.infowars.com\r\nhttps://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com\r\nhttps://banned.video\r\nhttps://summit.news\r\n\r\n\r\nImportant Tools\r\n\r\nhttps://airvpn.org\r\nhttps://www.azirevpn.com\r\nhttps://www.torproject.org\r\nhttps://freenetproject.org\r\nhttps://www.openpgp.org/software\r\nhttps://sourceforge.net/projects/veracrypt\r\nhttps://bitcoin.org/en/bitcoin-core/features\r\nhttps://github.com/qbittorrent/qBittorrent\r\nhttps://pidgin.im\r\nhttps://otr.cypherpunks.ca\r\n\r\n\r\nDO NOT SUBMIT TO TYRANNY, HAVE COURAGE TO DEFEND YOUR FREEDOM!\r\nGOD BLESS YOU ALL'),
(76207, 3184, 11888, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 08:31:14'),
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(76215, 2456, 11890, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76217, 2456, 11890, 'your-email', 'jyotikaaa18@gmail.com'),
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(76219, 2456, 11890, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 08:38:45'),
(76220, 2456, 11890, 'submit_ip', '103.95.123.191'),
(76221, 2456, 11891, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(76222, 2456, 11891, 'your-name', 'Ashish Jagnani'),
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(76225, 2456, 11891, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 09:58:42'),
(76226, 2456, 11891, 'submit_ip', '49.36.13.71'),
(76227, 3184, 11892, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(76228, 3184, 11892, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(76229, 3184, 11892, 'text-172', 'Kamlesh Chauhan'),
(76230, 3184, 11892, 'email-503', 'kamleshecn@gmail.com'),
(76231, 3184, 11892, 'tel-800', '9879000747'),
(76232, 3184, 11892, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir / Madam\r\ni want to open PMS account and need some more information\r\nlike detailed procedure, total charges (apart from mentioned in FAQ), etc..\r\n\r\nplease email me related document like factsheet if available\r\n\r\nplease callback (between 11am to 4pm)\r\n\r\nThank You'),
(76233, 3184, 11892, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 10:01:27'),
(76234, 3184, 11892, 'submit_ip', '103.12.192.90'),
(76235, 3184, 11893, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76237, 3184, 11893, 'text-172', 'Amit Kumar'),
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(76239, 3184, 11893, 'tel-800', '9223233890'),
(76240, 3184, 11893, 'your-message', 'I am interested in the consistent compounders portfolio. Is there an online process to apply for the same, for the variable fee option. Also, what is the minimum amount of investment for this portfolio. '),
(76241, 3184, 11893, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 10:16:13'),
(76242, 3184, 11893, 'submit_ip', '43.225.163.82'),
(76243, 3184, 11894, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(76245, 3184, 11894, 'text-172', 'Merks Capital Private Limited'),
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(76247, 3184, 11894, 'tel-800', '7094435571'),
(76248, 3184, 11894, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\nGood afternoon, this is Senthil from Coimbatore I want empanelment forms for individual and non-individual\r\n\r\nAlso send performance report of the PMS for last 2 years.\r\n\r\nShall we process empanelment and client acquisition simultaneously?'),
(76249, 3184, 11894, 'submit_time', '2020-04-29 10:46:53'),
(76250, 3184, 11894, 'submit_ip', '42.106.93.4'),
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(76263, 3184, 11896, 'your-message', 'one of my client wants to invest in your portfolio'),
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(76371, 3184, 11912, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nPlease send the performance of PMS for the past 2 years. kindly send the contact number for communication.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nTSA Easwaran'),
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(76385, 3184, 11914, 'your-message', 'INTERESTED IN BOTH YOUR PMS (CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS  &amp; LITTLE CHAMPS AS WELL , NEED MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE PMS &amp; GUIDANCE AS WELL '),
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(76406, 3184, 11917, 'your-message', 'Would like to understand what you do? And how an individual investor gets benefited joining you? '),
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(76414, 3184, 11918, 'your-message', 'Антикризисный маркетинг \r\nЗдравствуйте, предлагаю вам попробовать новый антикризисный инструмент рекламы. \r\n \r\nМассово отправим ваше предложение или сайт с услугами, B2b товарами по базам сайтов коммерческих организаций, которые имеют открытую форму обратной связи. Более 20 рабочих баз. Выберите подходящую. \r\n \r\nМетод массовых рассылок основанный для проекта НЕ является вредоносным и/или запрещенным российским законодательством. \r\n \r\nВся подробная информация на сайте https://oktrust.ru/ \r\nДля консультаций пишите на почту oktrust.ru@gmail.com'),
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(76423, 3184, 11919, 'your-message', 'Hey there, I just found your site, quick question…\r\n\r\nMy name’s Eric, I found marcellus.in after doing a quick search – you showed up near the top of the rankings, so whatever you’re doing for SEO, looks like it’s working well.\r\n\r\nSo here’s my question – what happens AFTER someone lands on your site?  Anything?\r\n\r\nResearch tells us at least 70% of the people who find your site, after a quick once-over, they disappear… forever.\r\n\r\nThat means that all the work and effort you put into getting them to show up, goes down the tubes.\r\n\r\nWhy would you want all that good work – and the great site you’ve built – go to waste?\r\n\r\nBecause the odds are they’ll just skip over calling or even grabbing their phone, leaving you high and dry.\r\n\r\nBut here’s a thought… what if you could make it super-simple for someone to raise their hand, say, “okay, let’s talk” without requiring them to even pull their cell phone from their pocket?\r\n  \r\nYou can – thanks to revolutionary new software that can literally make that first call happen NOW.\r\n\r\nTalk With Web Visitor is a software widget that sits on your site, ready and waiting to capture any visitor’s Name, Email address and Phone Number.  It lets you know IMMEDIATELY – so that you can talk to that lead while they’re still there at your site.\r\n  \r\nYou know, strike when the iron’s hot!\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.\r\n\r\nWhen targeting leads, you HAVE to act fast – the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later is huge – like 100 times better!\r\n\r\nThat’s why you should check out our new SMS Text With Lead feature as well… once you’ve captured the phone number of the website visitor, you can automatically kick off a text message (SMS) conversation with them. \r\n \r\nImagine how powerful this could be – even if they don’t take you up on your offer immediately, you can stay in touch with them using text messages to make new offers, provide links to great content, and build your credibility.\r\n\r\nJust this alone could be a game changer to make your website even more effective.\r\n\r\nStrike when  the iron’s hot!\r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to learn more about everything Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business – you’ll be amazed.\r\n\r\nThanks and keep up the great work!\r\n\r\nEric\r\nPS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial – you could be converting up to 100x more leads immediately!   \r\nIt even includes International Long Distance Calling. \r\nStop wasting money chasing eyeballs that don’t turn into paying customers. \r\nCLICK HERE http://www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.\r\n\r\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http://talkwithwebvisitor.com/unsubscribe.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n'),
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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - 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(78951, 3184, 12317, 'menu-596', 'Others'),
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(78954, 3184, 12317, 'tel-800', '318-287-2282'),
(78955, 3184, 12317, 'your-message', 'Zero Cost advertising, submit your site now and start getting new visitors. Visit: http://bit.ly/submityourfreeads'),
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(78957, 3184, 12317, 'submit_ip', '162.253.129.139'),
(78958, 1662, 12318, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(78959, 1662, 12318, 'your-name', 'Sameer kulkarni'),
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(78962, 1662, 12318, 'submit_time', '2020-05-07 00:16:12'),
(78963, 1662, 12318, 'submit_ip', '157.33.176.30'),
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(78966, 1662, 12319, 'your-email', 'ayushaggarwal08@gmail.com'),
(78967, 1662, 12319, 'tel-309', '9711431273'),
(78968, 1662, 12319, 'submit_time', '2020-05-07 01:48:17'),
(78969, 1662, 12319, 'submit_ip', '182.69.79.16'),
(78970, 1662, 12320, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(78971, 1662, 12320, 'your-name', 'Mahesh '),
(78972, 1662, 12320, 'your-email', 'mahesh.kalkar@gmail.com'),
(78973, 1662, 12320, 'tel-309', '9916336116'),
(78974, 1662, 12320, 'submit_time', '2020-05-07 02:31:43'),
(78975, 1662, 12320, 'submit_ip', '1.39.154.218'),
(78976, 28, 12321, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(78979, 28, 12321, 'tel-182', '9876543210'),
(78980, 28, 12321, 'your-message', 'Dear Madame, Dear Sirs! \r\n \r\nWe will send viacontact forms to the sites of firms via any countries of the world.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour message is sent to E-mail address \r\n of business organization 100 percent will get to inside of the inbox folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your email address - twenty dollars. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domain names - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domains- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \r\nEnterprises and organizations of RF - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domain names - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases for sending newsletters: \r\nWHOIS databases of domain names for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP/S \r\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - 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$30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - 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$30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - 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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(79224, 3184, 12359, 'your-message', 'I am a distributor based at kanpur , having an aum if 150 cr.\r\nwant to become distributor of your pms.\r\nThanks\r\nVinay Rai\r\n'),
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(79226, 3184, 12359, 'submit_ip', '116.206.159.235'),
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(79229, 3184, 12360, 'text-172', 'SK'),
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(79231, 3184, 12360, 'tel-800', '+6591775242'),
(79232, 3184, 12360, 'your-message', 'Please email me process and forms for NRO PMS account opening '),
(79233, 3184, 12360, 'submit_time', '2020-05-08 03:44:39'),
(79234, 3184, 12360, 'submit_ip', '119.56.101.228'),
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(79240, 1662, 12361, 'submit_ip', '103.52.127.196'),
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(79245, 29, 12362, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am interest in starting the PMS. Pls give me a call for discussion and next steps. \r\nRegards\r\nAvinash Trivedi '),
(79246, 29, 12362, 'submit_time', '2020-05-08 05:06:36'),
(79247, 29, 12362, 'submit_ip', '2.51.105.8'),
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(79252, 29, 12363, 'your-message', 'Hi,\r\nI came across Marcellus in a webinar hosted recently by cube where Pramod shared some insights about Marcellus philosophy. I would like to explore the option of having Marcellus manage my portfolio.\r\n\r\nThanks'),
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(79314, 28, 12373, 'your-message', 'Dear Madame, Dear Sirs! \r\n \r\nWe will send Your messages via follow-up forms to the sites of companies via any countries of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour commercial offer is sent to E-mail of business organization 100% will get to inbox! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your email address - 20 dollars. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domains- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \r\nBusinesses of the Russian Federation - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domain names - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of domains - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases: \r\nWHOIS databases of sites for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPlease, do not respond to this message from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - 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$30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - 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$30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - 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(79389, 28, 12384, 'your-message', 'Good whatever time of day it is where you are! \r\n \r\nWe offer sending newsletters of Your offers via contact forms  to the sites of business organizations via any domain zones of the world in any languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour commercial offer is sent to email of business organization 100% will get to inside of the inbox folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - 20 dollars. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domain names - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of sites- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \r\nEnterprises and organizations of RF - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of sites - 200$ \r\n \r\nOur databases: \r\nWHOIS databases of domain names for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPlease, do not respond to this commercial offer from your mailbox, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - $30 \r\n.ao 904 websites - $30 \r\n.apartments 3758 websites - $30 \r\n.app 661404 websites - $80 \r\n.ar 551804 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.ar 64008 websites International zone Argentina:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.archi 2084 websites - $30 \r\n.army 2282 websites - $30 \r\n.art 69227 websites - $50 \r\n.as 10525 websites - $50 \r\n.asia 228418 websites - $80 \r\n.associates 3340 websites - $30 \r\n.at 1356722 websites Austria - $100 \r\n.at 181907 websites International zone Austria :.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.attorney 8204 websites - $30 \r\n.au 2432174 websites Australia - $150 \r\n.au 461279 websites International zone Australia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.auction 4125 websites - $30 \r\n.audio 23052 websites - $50 \r\n.auto 400 websites - $30 \r\n.aw 235 websites - $30 \r\n.az 11104 websites Azerbaijan - $50 \r\n.az 2036 websites International zone Azerbaijan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ba 2291 websites international zone Bosnia and Herzegovina:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$30 \r\n.ba 7012 websites Bosnia and Herzegovina - $30 \r\n.baby 2051 websites - $30 \r\n.band 13515 websites - $50 \r\n.bank 20424 websites - $50 \r\n.bar 50267 websites - $50 \r\n.barcelona 7919 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2997 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2346 websites - $30 \r\n.bayern 32565 websites - $50 \r\n.bb 2277 websites- $30 \r\n.be 1349658 websites Belgium - $150 \r\n.be 184810 websites International zone Belgium:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.beer 13834 websites- $50 \r\n.berlin 58088 websites Berlin - $50 \r\n.best 93390 websites - $50 \r\n.bet 17637 websites - $50 \r\n.bf 238 websites - $30 \r\n.bg 37152 websites Bulgaria - $50 \r\n.bg 50685 websites International zone Bulgaria:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.bh 453 websites - $30 \r\n.bi 2328 websites Burundi - $30 \r\n.bible 1760 websites - $30 \r\n.bid 474509 websites - $80 \r\n.bike 15229 websites - $50 \r\n.bingo 1232 websites - $30 \r\n.bio 15531 websites- $50 \r\n.bj 147 websites - $30 \r\n.black 6582 websites - $30 \r\n.blackfriday 12106 websites - $50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.bo 29415 websites International zone Bolivia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 933750 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - $50 \r\n.cheap 3267 websites - $30 \r\n.christmas 15255 websites - $50 \r\n.church 24104 websites - $50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.cl 65996 websites International zone Chile:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.co 10854 websites International zone Colombia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - $50 \r\n.community 15013 websites - $50 \r\n.company 64217 websites - $50 \r\n.computer 5539 websites - $30 \r\n.condos	2192 websites - $30 \r\n.construction 7104 websites - $30 \r\n.consulting 27128 websites - $50 \r\n.contractors 3982 websites - $30 \r\n.cooking 1476 websites - $30 \r\n.cool 22008 websites - $50 \r\n.coop 7479 websites - $30 \r\n.corsica 1042 websites - $30 \r\n.country 7144 websites - $30 \r\n.cr 7934 websites - $30 \r\n.credit	4020 websites - $30 \r\n.creditcard 825 websites - $30 \r\n.creditunion 511 websites - $30 \r\n.cricket 33413 websites - $50 \r\n.cruises 2234 websites - $30 \r\n.cu 137 websites - $30 \r\n.cv 2279 websites - $30 \r\n.cx 15753 websites - $50 \r\n.cy 11092 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.cy 710 websites International zone Cyprus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.cymru 7314 websites - $30 \r\n.cz 1001208 websites Czech Republic - $100 \r\n.cz 193400 websites International zone Czech Republic:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dance	7490 websites - $30 \r\n.date 10800 websites - $50 \r\n.dating	2892 websites - $30 \r\n.de 15078512 websites Germany - $450 \r\n.de 3894156 websites International zone Germany:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$200 \r\n.deals 8332 websites - $30 \r\n.degree	2178 websites - $30 \r\n.delivery 6282 websites - $30 \r\n.democrat 1072 websites - $30 \r\n.dental 7841 websites - $30 \r\n.dentist 3046 websites - $30 \r\n.desi 2647 websites - $50 \r\n.design 103712 websites - $50 \r\n.dev	190456 websites - $50 \r\n.diamonds 2730 websites - $30 \r\n.diet 18291 websites - $50 \r\n.digital 49449 websites - $50 \r\n.direct 12129 websites - $50 \r\n.directory 15157 websites - $50 \r\n.discount 3898 websites - $30 \r\n.dj 7680 websites - $30 \r\n.dk 1319155 websites Denmark - $100 \r\n.dk 148164 websites International zone Denmark:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dm 23318 websites - $50 \r\n.do 5255 websites Dominican Republic- $30 \r\n.doctor	5601 websites - $30 \r\n.dog 10030 websites - $50 \r\n.dog 12435 websites - $50 \r\n.domains 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.download 7886 websites - $30 \r\n.durban	2247 websites - $30 \r\n.dz 982 websites - $30 \r\n.earth	23412 websites - $50 \r\n.ec 11731 websites Ecuador - $50 \r\n.ec 2897 websites International zone Ecuador:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.edu 4445 websites - $30 \r\n.edu.np 4883 websites- $30 \r\n.education 25003 websites - $50 \r\n.ee 119701 websites Estonia- $50 \r\n.ee 10490 websites International zone Estonia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.eg 1699 websites - $30 \r\n.email 100440 websites - $50 \r\n.energy 12399 websites - $50 \r\n.engineer 3785 websites - $30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - $30 \r\n.finance 9082 websites - $30 \r\n.financial 5086 websites - $30 \r\n.fish 4562 websites - $30 \r\n.fishing 1422 websites - $30 \r\n.fit 109855 websites - $50 \r\n.fitness 10689 websites - $50 \r\n.flights 2169 websites - $30 \r\n.florist 2071 websites - $30 \r\n.flowers 1187 websites - $30 \r\n.fm 3775 websites - $30 \r\n.fo 10415 websites- $50 \r\n.football 4677 websites - $30 \r\n.forex	282 websites - $30 \r\n.forsale 7118 websites - $30 \r\n.foundation 15401 websites - $50 \r\n.fr 2810983 websites France - $150 \r\n.fr 639546 websites International zone France:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.frl 13028 websites - $50 \r\n.fun 485622 websites - $50 \r\n.fund 14501 websites - $50 \r\n.furniture 2276 websites - $30 \r\n.futbol	2709 websites - $30 \r\n.fyi 15872 websites - $50 \r\n.ga 5041 websites Gabon - $30 \r\n.gal 5106 websites - $30 \r\n.gallery 17663 websites - $50 \r\n.game 2066 websites - $30 \r\n.games 20294 websites - $50 \r\n.garden	 2618 websites - $30 \r\n.gd 3038 websites - $30 \r\n.ge 17359 websites Georgia - $50 \r\n.ge 1676 websites International zone Georgia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.gent 3388 websites - $30 \r\n.gf 105 websites French Guiana - $30 \r\n.gg 7443 websites - $30 \r\n.gh 703 websites - $30 \r\n.gi 981 websites - $30 \r\n.gift 5001 websites - $30 \r\n.gifts 3357 websites - $30 \r\n.gives 1759 websites - $30 \r\n.gl 3558 websites - $30 \r\n.glass	3239 websites - $30 \r\n.global 48572 websites - $50 \r\n.gm 287 websites - $30 \r\n.gmbh 20786 websites - $50 \r\n.gold 9581 websites - $30 \r\n.golf 10319 websites - $50 \r\n.gop 1340 websites - $30 \r\n.gov 4195 websites - $30 \r\n.gov.np 1937 websites- $30 \r\n.gp 2014 websites - $30 \r\n.gq 63622 websites - $50 \r\n.gr 323168 websites Greece - $80 \r\n.gr 57984 websites International zone Greece:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$150 \r\n.graphics 6555 websites - $30 \r\n.gratis	4113 websites - $30 \r\n.green 5161 websites - $30 \r\n.gripe 1175 websites - $30 \r\n.group 65583 websites - $50 \r\n.gs 1008 websites Georgia - $30 \r\n.gt 15351 websites - $50 \r\n.guide 15044 websites - $50 \r\n.guitars 965 websites - $30 \r\n.guru 53088 websites - $50 \r\n.gy 2047 websites Guyana - $30 \r\n.hamburg 21585 websites - $50 \r\n.haus 5686 websites - $30 \r\n.health	13716 websites - $50 \r\n.healthcare 9001 websites - $30 \r\n.help 13098 websites - $50 \r\n.hiphop 518 websites - $30 \r\n.hiv 279 websites - $30 \r\n.hk 116093 websites - $50 \r\n.hm 229 websites - $30 \r\n.hn 4732 websites - $30 \r\n.hockey	1402 websites - $30 \r\n.holdings 5812 websites - $30 \r\n.holiday 4517 websites - $30 \r\n.homes 12499 websites - $50 \r\n.horse 2516 websites - $30 \r\n.hospital 1805 websites - $30 \r\n.host 79977 websites - $50 \r\n.hosting 3322 websites - $30 \r\n.house 19296 websites - $50 \r\n.how 2557 websites - $30 \r\n.hr 48565 websites Croatia - $50 \r\n.hr 16592 websites International zone Croatia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.ht 1299 websites - $30 \r\n.hu 618532 websites Hungary - $80 \r\n.hu 53940 websites International zone Hungary:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.icu 6331371 websites - $350 \r\n.id 61744 websites - $50 \r\n.ie 195987 websites Ireland - $50 \r\n.ie 49861 websites International zone Ireland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.il 196266 websites Israel - $80 \r\n.il 38537 websites International zone Israel:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.im 18701 websites - $50 \r\n.immo 15409 websites - $50 \r\n.immobilien 6805 websites - $30 \r\n.in 1143482 websites India - $100 \r\n.in 266179 websites International zone India:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.industries 4312 websites - $30 \r\n.ink 28117 websites - $50 \r\n.institute 12134 websites - $50 \r\n.insure	5015 websites - $30 \r\n.int 451 websites - $30 \r\n.international 25430 websites - $50 \r\n.investments 4813 websites - $30 \r\n.io 496216 websites British Indian Ocean - $80 \r\n.iq 2401 websites - $30 \r\n.ir 427735 websites Iran - $80 \r\n.ir 15487 websites International zone Iran:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.irish 3126 websites - $30 \r\n.is 32176 websites Iceland - $50 \r\n.ist 9060 websites - $30 \r\n.istanbul 12839 websites - $50 \r\n.it 2410105 webwebsites Italy – $250 \r\n.it 954040 webwebsites International zone Italy:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$100 \r\n.je 3016 websites - $30 \r\n.jetzt 18207 websites - $50 \r\n.jewelry 3250 websites - $30 \r\n.jo 555 websites - $30 \r\n.jobs 44024 websites- $50 \r\n.joburg	3138 websites - $30 \r\n.jp 1246243 websites Japan - $150 \r\n.juegos	644 websites - $30 \r\n.kaufen 6134 websites - $30 \r\n.ke 14677 websites - $50 \r\n.kg 3619 websites Kyrgyzstan - $30 \r\n.kg 664 websites International zone Kyrgyzstan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ki 79 websites - $30 \r\n.kim 12007 websites- $50 \r\n.kitchen 6881 websites - $30 \r\n.kiwi 13426 websites - $50 \r\n.kn 3211 websites - $30 \r\n.koeln 23320 websites - 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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - $30 \r\n.ao 904 websites - $30 \r\n.apartments 3758 websites - $30 \r\n.app 661404 websites - $80 \r\n.ar 551804 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.ar 64008 websites International zone Argentina:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.archi 2084 websites - $30 \r\n.army 2282 websites - $30 \r\n.art 69227 websites - $50 \r\n.as 10525 websites - $50 \r\n.asia 228418 websites - $80 \r\n.associates 3340 websites - $30 \r\n.at 1356722 websites Austria - $100 \r\n.at 181907 websites International zone Austria :.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.attorney 8204 websites - $30 \r\n.au 2432174 websites Australia - $150 \r\n.au 461279 websites International zone Australia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.auction 4125 websites - $30 \r\n.audio 23052 websites - $50 \r\n.auto 400 websites - $30 \r\n.aw 235 websites - $30 \r\n.az 11104 websites Azerbaijan - $50 \r\n.az 2036 websites International zone Azerbaijan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ba 2291 websites international zone Bosnia and Herzegovina:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$30 \r\n.ba 7012 websites Bosnia and Herzegovina - $30 \r\n.baby 2051 websites - $30 \r\n.band 13515 websites - $50 \r\n.bank 20424 websites - $50 \r\n.bar 50267 websites - $50 \r\n.barcelona 7919 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2997 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2346 websites - $30 \r\n.bayern 32565 websites - $50 \r\n.bb 2277 websites- $30 \r\n.be 1349658 websites Belgium - $150 \r\n.be 184810 websites International zone Belgium:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.beer 13834 websites- $50 \r\n.berlin 58088 websites Berlin - $50 \r\n.best 93390 websites - $50 \r\n.bet 17637 websites - $50 \r\n.bf 238 websites - $30 \r\n.bg 37152 websites Bulgaria - $50 \r\n.bg 50685 websites International zone Bulgaria:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.bh 453 websites - $30 \r\n.bi 2328 websites Burundi - $30 \r\n.bible 1760 websites - $30 \r\n.bid 474509 websites - $80 \r\n.bike 15229 websites - $50 \r\n.bingo 1232 websites - $30 \r\n.bio 15531 websites- $50 \r\n.bj 147 websites - $30 \r\n.black 6582 websites - $30 \r\n.blackfriday 12106 websites - $50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.bo 29415 websites International zone Bolivia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 933750 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - $50 \r\n.cheap 3267 websites - $30 \r\n.christmas 15255 websites - $50 \r\n.church 24104 websites - $50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.cl 65996 websites International zone Chile:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.co 10854 websites International zone Colombia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - $50 \r\n.community 15013 websites - $50 \r\n.company 64217 websites - $50 \r\n.computer 5539 websites - $30 \r\n.condos	2192 websites - $30 \r\n.construction 7104 websites - $30 \r\n.consulting 27128 websites - $50 \r\n.contractors 3982 websites - $30 \r\n.cooking 1476 websites - $30 \r\n.cool 22008 websites - $50 \r\n.coop 7479 websites - $30 \r\n.corsica 1042 websites - $30 \r\n.country 7144 websites - $30 \r\n.cr 7934 websites - $30 \r\n.credit	4020 websites - $30 \r\n.creditcard 825 websites - $30 \r\n.creditunion 511 websites - $30 \r\n.cricket 33413 websites - $50 \r\n.cruises 2234 websites - $30 \r\n.cu 137 websites - $30 \r\n.cv 2279 websites - $30 \r\n.cx 15753 websites - $50 \r\n.cy 11092 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.cy 710 websites International zone Cyprus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.cymru 7314 websites - $30 \r\n.cz 1001208 websites Czech Republic - $100 \r\n.cz 193400 websites International zone Czech Republic:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dance	7490 websites - $30 \r\n.date 10800 websites - $50 \r\n.dating	2892 websites - $30 \r\n.de 15078512 websites Germany - $450 \r\n.de 3894156 websites International zone Germany:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$200 \r\n.deals 8332 websites - $30 \r\n.degree	2178 websites - $30 \r\n.delivery 6282 websites - $30 \r\n.democrat 1072 websites - $30 \r\n.dental 7841 websites - $30 \r\n.dentist 3046 websites - $30 \r\n.desi 2647 websites - $50 \r\n.design 103712 websites - $50 \r\n.dev	190456 websites - $50 \r\n.diamonds 2730 websites - $30 \r\n.diet 18291 websites - $50 \r\n.digital 49449 websites - $50 \r\n.direct 12129 websites - $50 \r\n.directory 15157 websites - $50 \r\n.discount 3898 websites - $30 \r\n.dj 7680 websites - $30 \r\n.dk 1319155 websites Denmark - $100 \r\n.dk 148164 websites International zone Denmark:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dm 23318 websites - $50 \r\n.do 5255 websites Dominican Republic- $30 \r\n.doctor	5601 websites - $30 \r\n.dog 10030 websites - $50 \r\n.dog 12435 websites - $50 \r\n.domains 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.download 7886 websites - $30 \r\n.durban	2247 websites - $30 \r\n.dz 982 websites - $30 \r\n.earth	23412 websites - $50 \r\n.ec 11731 websites Ecuador - $50 \r\n.ec 2897 websites International zone Ecuador:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.edu 4445 websites - $30 \r\n.edu.np 4883 websites- $30 \r\n.education 25003 websites - $50 \r\n.ee 119701 websites Estonia- $50 \r\n.ee 10490 websites International zone Estonia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.eg 1699 websites - $30 \r\n.email 100440 websites - $50 \r\n.energy 12399 websites - $50 \r\n.engineer 3785 websites - $30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - $30 \r\n.finance 9082 websites - $30 \r\n.financial 5086 websites - $30 \r\n.fish 4562 websites - $30 \r\n.fishing 1422 websites - $30 \r\n.fit 109855 websites - $50 \r\n.fitness 10689 websites - $50 \r\n.flights 2169 websites - $30 \r\n.florist 2071 websites - $30 \r\n.flowers 1187 websites - $30 \r\n.fm 3775 websites - $30 \r\n.fo 10415 websites- $50 \r\n.football 4677 websites - $30 \r\n.forex	282 websites - $30 \r\n.forsale 7118 websites - $30 \r\n.foundation 15401 websites - $50 \r\n.fr 2810983 websites France - $150 \r\n.fr 639546 websites International zone France:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.frl 13028 websites - $50 \r\n.fun 485622 websites - $50 \r\n.fund 14501 websites - $50 \r\n.furniture 2276 websites - $30 \r\n.futbol	2709 websites - $30 \r\n.fyi 15872 websites - $50 \r\n.ga 5041 websites Gabon - $30 \r\n.gal 5106 websites - $30 \r\n.gallery 17663 websites - $50 \r\n.game 2066 websites - $30 \r\n.games 20294 websites - $50 \r\n.garden	 2618 websites - $30 \r\n.gd 3038 websites - $30 \r\n.ge 17359 websites Georgia - $50 \r\n.ge 1676 websites International zone Georgia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.gent 3388 websites - $30 \r\n.gf 105 websites French Guiana - $30 \r\n.gg 7443 websites - $30 \r\n.gh 703 websites - $30 \r\n.gi 981 websites - $30 \r\n.gift 5001 websites - $30 \r\n.gifts 3357 websites - $30 \r\n.gives 1759 websites - $30 \r\n.gl 3558 websites - $30 \r\n.glass	3239 websites - $30 \r\n.global 48572 websites - $50 \r\n.gm 287 websites - $30 \r\n.gmbh 20786 websites - $50 \r\n.gold 9581 websites - $30 \r\n.golf 10319 websites - $50 \r\n.gop 1340 websites - $30 \r\n.gov 4195 websites - $30 \r\n.gov.np 1937 websites- $30 \r\n.gp 2014 websites - $30 \r\n.gq 63622 websites - $50 \r\n.gr 323168 websites Greece - $80 \r\n.gr 57984 websites International zone Greece:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$150 \r\n.graphics 6555 websites - $30 \r\n.gratis	4113 websites - $30 \r\n.green 5161 websites - $30 \r\n.gripe 1175 websites - $30 \r\n.group 65583 websites - $50 \r\n.gs 1008 websites Georgia - $30 \r\n.gt 15351 websites - $50 \r\n.guide 15044 websites - $50 \r\n.guitars 965 websites - $30 \r\n.guru 53088 websites - $50 \r\n.gy 2047 websites Guyana - $30 \r\n.hamburg 21585 websites - $50 \r\n.haus 5686 websites - $30 \r\n.health	13716 websites - $50 \r\n.healthcare 9001 websites - $30 \r\n.help 13098 websites - $50 \r\n.hiphop 518 websites - $30 \r\n.hiv 279 websites - $30 \r\n.hk 116093 websites - $50 \r\n.hm 229 websites - $30 \r\n.hn 4732 websites - $30 \r\n.hockey	1402 websites - $30 \r\n.holdings 5812 websites - $30 \r\n.holiday 4517 websites - $30 \r\n.homes 12499 websites - $50 \r\n.horse 2516 websites - $30 \r\n.hospital 1805 websites - $30 \r\n.host 79977 websites - $50 \r\n.hosting 3322 websites - $30 \r\n.house 19296 websites - $50 \r\n.how 2557 websites - $30 \r\n.hr 48565 websites Croatia - $50 \r\n.hr 16592 websites International zone Croatia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.ht 1299 websites - $30 \r\n.hu 618532 websites Hungary - $80 \r\n.hu 53940 websites International zone Hungary:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.icu 6331371 websites - $350 \r\n.id 61744 websites - $50 \r\n.ie 195987 websites Ireland - $50 \r\n.ie 49861 websites International zone Ireland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.il 196266 websites Israel - $80 \r\n.il 38537 websites International zone Israel:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.im 18701 websites - $50 \r\n.immo 15409 websites - $50 \r\n.immobilien 6805 websites - $30 \r\n.in 1143482 websites India - $100 \r\n.in 266179 websites International zone India:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.industries 4312 websites - $30 \r\n.ink 28117 websites - $50 \r\n.institute 12134 websites - $50 \r\n.insure	5015 websites - $30 \r\n.int 451 websites - $30 \r\n.international 25430 websites - $50 \r\n.investments 4813 websites - $30 \r\n.io 496216 websites British Indian Ocean - $80 \r\n.iq 2401 websites - $30 \r\n.ir 427735 websites Iran - $80 \r\n.ir 15487 websites International zone Iran:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.irish 3126 websites - $30 \r\n.is 32176 websites Iceland - $50 \r\n.ist 9060 websites - $30 \r\n.istanbul 12839 websites - $50 \r\n.it 2410105 webwebsites Italy – $250 \r\n.it 954040 webwebsites International zone Italy:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$100 \r\n.je 3016 websites - $30 \r\n.jetzt 18207 websites - $50 \r\n.jewelry 3250 websites - $30 \r\n.jo 555 websites - $30 \r\n.jobs 44024 websites- $50 \r\n.joburg	3138 websites - $30 \r\n.jp 1246243 websites Japan - $150 \r\n.juegos	644 websites - $30 \r\n.kaufen 6134 websites - $30 \r\n.ke 14677 websites - $50 \r\n.kg 3619 websites Kyrgyzstan - $30 \r\n.kg 664 websites International zone Kyrgyzstan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ki 79 websites - $30 \r\n.kim 12007 websites- $50 \r\n.kitchen 6881 websites - $30 \r\n.kiwi 13426 websites - $50 \r\n.kn 3211 websites - $30 \r\n.koeln 23320 websites - $50 \r\n.kr 272463 websites Korea- $50 \r\n.krd 374 websites - $30 \r\n.kred 8921 websites - $30 \r\n.kw 484 websites - $30 \r\n.ky 5783 websites - $30 \r\n.kyoto 658 websites - $30 \r\n.kz 113180 websites Kazakhstan - $50 \r\n.kz 5876 websites International zone Kazakhstan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.la 34189 websites Laos - $50 \r\n.land 15474 websites- $50 \r\n.lat 4171 websites - $30 \r\n.law 12002 websites - $50 \r\n.lawyer 10996 websites- $50 \r\n.lc 481 websites- $30 \r\n.lease 1755 websites- $30 \r\n.leclerc 165 websites- $30 \r\n.legal 13047 websites- $50 \r\n.lgbt 2247 websites- $30 \r\n.li 10044 websites - $50 \r\n.life 195950 websites - $50 \r\n.lighting 5870 websites - $30 \r\n.limited 5365 websites - $30 \r\n.limo 1981 websites- $30 \r\n.link 117273 websites - $50 \r\n.live 662010 websites - $80 \r\n.lk 4971 websites - $30 \r\n.llc 12888 websites - $50 \r\n.loan 23738 websites - $50 \r\n.loans 3994 websites - $30 \r\n.lol 8121 websites - $30 \r\n.london 48933 websites London, United Kingdom- $50 \r\n.love 28434 websites - $50 \r\n.ls 236 websites - $30 \r\n.lt 94484 websites Lithuania- $50 \r\n.lt 27710 websites International zone Lithuania:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia- $50 \r\n.ltd 100152 websites - $50 \r\n.lu 47052 websites Luxembourg - $50 \r\n.lu 4125 websites International zone Luxembourg:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.luxe 14037 websites - $50 \r\n.luxury	805 websites - $30 \r\n.lv 67886 websites Latvia - $50 \r\n.lv 8887 websites International zone Latvia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ly 8413 websites - $30 \r\n.ma 41462 websites Morocco - $50 \r\n.madrid	2919 websites - $30 \r\n.maison	1003 websites - $30 \r\n.management 10788 websites- $50 \r\n.market 18741 websites- $50 \r\n.marketing 22656 websites- $50 \r\n.markets 899 websites- $30 \r\n.mba 2510 websites- $30 \r\n.mc 3046 websites Monaco - $30 \r\n.md 16135 websites Moldova - $50 \r\n.md 1293 websites International zone Moldova:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.me 761596 websites Montenegro - $80 \r\n.me 86897 websites International zone Montenegro:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.media 49573 websites - $50 \r\n.melbourne 10041 websites - $50 \r\n.memorial 712 websites - $30 \r\n.men 24451 websites - $50 \r\n.menu 5002 websites restaurants- $30 \r\n.mg 3680 websites Madagascar- $30 \r\n.miami 9210 websites Miami, USA - $30 \r\n.mk 12704 websites - $50 \r\n.ml 128001 websites - $50 \r\n.mma 1705 websites - $30 \r\n.mn 17044 websites - $50 \r\n.mo 775 websites - $30 \r\n.mobi 381422 websites- $80 \r\n.moda 2741 websites - $30 \r\n.moe 8709 websites - $30 \r\n.mom 2085 websites - $30 \r\n.money 12000 websites - $50 \r\n.monster 54325 websites - $50 \r\n.mortgage 3198 websites - $30 \r\n.moscow 17741 websites Moscow Russian Federation- $50 \r\n.movie 3275 websites - $30 \r\n.mq 119 websites - $30 \r\n.mr 199 websites - $30 \r\n.ms 7265 websites - $30 \r\n.mt 1402 websites Malta - $30 \r\n.mu 6475 websites - $30 \r\n.museum	1260 websites - $30 \r\n.mv 1905 websites - $30 \r\n.mw 8579 websites Malawi - $30 \r\n.mx 670901 websites Mexico- $80 \r\n.mx 174571 websites International zone Mexico:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.my 143039 websites Malaysia- $80 \r\n.mz 985 websites - $30 \r\n.na 1094 websites - $30 \r\n.nagoya	7807 websites - $30 \r\n.name 120331 websites- $50 \r\n.navy 799 websites - $30 \r\n.nc 999 websites - $30 \r\n.network 51331 websites - $50 \r\n.news 57899 websites - $50 \r\n.ng 23864 websites - $50 \r\n.ngo 3421 websites - $30 \r\n.ninja 31719 websites - $50 \r\n.nl 3925784 websites Netherlands - $200 \r\n.nl 1019697 websites International zone Netherlands:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.no 620882 websites Norway - $80 \r\n.no 74318 websites International zone Norway:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.nra 131 websites - $30 \r\n.nrw 17487 websites - $50 \r\n.nu 236821 websites Niue- $50 \r\n.nyc 64003 websites - $50 \r\n.nz 593127 websites New Zealand - $80 \r\n.om 1701 websites - 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$30 \r\n.コム    6533 websites - $30 \r\n.世界   4172 websites - $30 \r\n.公司   46162 websites - $50 \r\n.商城   6906 websites - $30 \r\n.商标   9866 websites - $30 \r\n.我爱你 15466 websites - $50 \r\n.手机   31544 websites - $50 \r\n.机构   244 websites - $30 \r\n.游戏   162 websites - $30 \r\n.移动   1152 websites - $30 \r\n.网店   3710 websites - $30 \r\n.网络   30809 websites - $50 \r\n.닷컴   5938 websites - $30'),
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(79399, 28, 12385, 'submit_time', '2020-05-09 04:54:55'),
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(79404, 28, 12386, 'tel-182', '9876543210');
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(79405, 28, 12386, 'your-message', 'Good whatever time of day it is where you are! \r\n \r\nWe will send Your offers via contact forms to the sites of business organizations via any countries and domain zones of the world.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nThe commercial offer is sent to E-mail address \r\n of organization 100% will get to the incoming folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - 20 $. \r\nWe need from You only email address, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of sites - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of sites- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of sites - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domains - 200$ \r\nCompanies of the Russian Federation - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nOur databases: \r\nWhois-service databases of sites for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPlease, do not respond to this commercial offer from your electronic box, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - 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(79524, 29, 12405, 'your-message', 'Looking forward to knowing more about your comapny and stratergy. I am also looking to invest for a long term in PMS.'),
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(79526, 29, 12405, 'submit_ip', '122.173.99.232'),
(79527, 2456, 12406, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(79528, 2456, 12406, 'your-name', 'dr adnan khan'),
(79529, 2456, 12406, 'your-email', 'Adnanfirozkhan@gmail.com'),
(79530, 2456, 12406, 'tel-971', '9760263913'),
(79531, 2456, 12406, 'submit_time', '2020-05-09 20:13:40'),
(79532, 2456, 12406, 'submit_ip', '103.249.78.87'),
(79533, 1662, 12407, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(79534, 1662, 12407, 'your-name', 'Dr Viral Gondalia'),
(79535, 1662, 12407, 'your-email', 'bonehealerviral@gmail.com'),
(79536, 1662, 12407, 'tel-309', '9879066220'),
(79537, 1662, 12407, 'submit_time', '2020-05-10 02:17:43'),
(79538, 1662, 12407, 'submit_ip', '116.72.248.243'),
(79539, 28, 12408, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(79540, 28, 12408, 'text-996', 'contactaepcyp'),
(79541, 28, 12408, 'email-563', 'malisa_chang59@rambler.ru'),
(79542, 28, 12408, 'tel-182', '9876543210');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(79543, 28, 12408, 'your-message', 'Good whatever time of day it is where you are! \r\n \r\nWe offer sending newsletters of Your messages via contact configurations to the sites of business organizations via all countries and domain zones of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour offer is sent to E-mail address \r\n of firm 100 percent will get to the incoming folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your email address - twenty dollars. \r\nWe need from You only email address, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all domain zones of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of sites - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domains- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domain names - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \r\nEnterprises and organizations of the Russian Federation - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russian Federation are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of sites - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases: \r\nWhois-service databases of domains for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP/S \r\nPlease, do not respond to this letter from your electronic box, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - $30 \r\n.ao 904 websites - $30 \r\n.apartments 3758 websites - $30 \r\n.app 661404 websites - $80 \r\n.ar 551804 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.ar 64008 websites International zone Argentina:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.archi 2084 websites - $30 \r\n.army 2282 websites - $30 \r\n.art 69227 websites - $50 \r\n.as 10525 websites - $50 \r\n.asia 228418 websites - $80 \r\n.associates 3340 websites - $30 \r\n.at 1356722 websites Austria - $100 \r\n.at 181907 websites International zone Austria :.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.attorney 8204 websites - $30 \r\n.au 2432174 websites Australia - $150 \r\n.au 461279 websites International zone Australia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.auction 4125 websites - $30 \r\n.audio 23052 websites - $50 \r\n.auto 400 websites - $30 \r\n.aw 235 websites - $30 \r\n.az 11104 websites Azerbaijan - $50 \r\n.az 2036 websites International zone Azerbaijan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ba 2291 websites international zone Bosnia and Herzegovina:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$30 \r\n.ba 7012 websites Bosnia and Herzegovina - $30 \r\n.baby 2051 websites - $30 \r\n.band 13515 websites - $50 \r\n.bank 20424 websites - $50 \r\n.bar 50267 websites - $50 \r\n.barcelona 7919 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2997 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2346 websites - $30 \r\n.bayern 32565 websites - $50 \r\n.bb 2277 websites- $30 \r\n.be 1349658 websites Belgium - $150 \r\n.be 184810 websites International zone Belgium:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.beer 13834 websites- $50 \r\n.berlin 58088 websites Berlin - $50 \r\n.best 93390 websites - $50 \r\n.bet 17637 websites - $50 \r\n.bf 238 websites - $30 \r\n.bg 37152 websites Bulgaria - $50 \r\n.bg 50685 websites International zone Bulgaria:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.bh 453 websites - $30 \r\n.bi 2328 websites Burundi - $30 \r\n.bible 1760 websites - $30 \r\n.bid 474509 websites - $80 \r\n.bike 15229 websites - $50 \r\n.bingo 1232 websites - $30 \r\n.bio 15531 websites- $50 \r\n.bj 147 websites - $30 \r\n.black 6582 websites - $30 \r\n.blackfriday 12106 websites - $50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.bo 29415 websites International zone Bolivia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 933750 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - $50 \r\n.cheap 3267 websites - $30 \r\n.christmas 15255 websites - $50 \r\n.church 24104 websites - $50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.cl 65996 websites International zone Chile:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.co 10854 websites International zone Colombia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - $50 \r\n.community 15013 websites - $50 \r\n.company 64217 websites - $50 \r\n.computer 5539 websites - $30 \r\n.condos	2192 websites - $30 \r\n.construction 7104 websites - $30 \r\n.consulting 27128 websites - $50 \r\n.contractors 3982 websites - $30 \r\n.cooking 1476 websites - $30 \r\n.cool 22008 websites - $50 \r\n.coop 7479 websites - $30 \r\n.corsica 1042 websites - $30 \r\n.country 7144 websites - $30 \r\n.cr 7934 websites - $30 \r\n.credit	4020 websites - $30 \r\n.creditcard 825 websites - $30 \r\n.creditunion 511 websites - $30 \r\n.cricket 33413 websites - $50 \r\n.cruises 2234 websites - $30 \r\n.cu 137 websites - $30 \r\n.cv 2279 websites - $30 \r\n.cx 15753 websites - $50 \r\n.cy 11092 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.cy 710 websites International zone Cyprus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.cymru 7314 websites - $30 \r\n.cz 1001208 websites Czech Republic - $100 \r\n.cz 193400 websites International zone Czech Republic:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dance	7490 websites - $30 \r\n.date 10800 websites - $50 \r\n.dating	2892 websites - $30 \r\n.de 15078512 websites Germany - $450 \r\n.de 3894156 websites International zone Germany:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$200 \r\n.deals 8332 websites - $30 \r\n.degree	2178 websites - $30 \r\n.delivery 6282 websites - $30 \r\n.democrat 1072 websites - $30 \r\n.dental 7841 websites - $30 \r\n.dentist 3046 websites - $30 \r\n.desi 2647 websites - $50 \r\n.design 103712 websites - $50 \r\n.dev	190456 websites - $50 \r\n.diamonds 2730 websites - $30 \r\n.diet 18291 websites - $50 \r\n.digital 49449 websites - $50 \r\n.direct 12129 websites - $50 \r\n.directory 15157 websites - $50 \r\n.discount 3898 websites - $30 \r\n.dj 7680 websites - $30 \r\n.dk 1319155 websites Denmark - $100 \r\n.dk 148164 websites International zone Denmark:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dm 23318 websites - $50 \r\n.do 5255 websites Dominican Republic- $30 \r\n.doctor	5601 websites - $30 \r\n.dog 10030 websites - $50 \r\n.dog 12435 websites - $50 \r\n.domains 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.download 7886 websites - $30 \r\n.durban	2247 websites - $30 \r\n.dz 982 websites - $30 \r\n.earth	23412 websites - $50 \r\n.ec 11731 websites Ecuador - $50 \r\n.ec 2897 websites International zone Ecuador:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.edu 4445 websites - $30 \r\n.edu.np 4883 websites- $30 \r\n.education 25003 websites - $50 \r\n.ee 119701 websites Estonia- $50 \r\n.ee 10490 websites International zone Estonia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.eg 1699 websites - $30 \r\n.email 100440 websites - $50 \r\n.energy 12399 websites - $50 \r\n.engineer 3785 websites - $30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - $30 \r\n.finance 9082 websites - $30 \r\n.financial 5086 websites - $30 \r\n.fish 4562 websites - $30 \r\n.fishing 1422 websites - $30 \r\n.fit 109855 websites - $50 \r\n.fitness 10689 websites - $50 \r\n.flights 2169 websites - $30 \r\n.florist 2071 websites - $30 \r\n.flowers 1187 websites - $30 \r\n.fm 3775 websites - $30 \r\n.fo 10415 websites- $50 \r\n.football 4677 websites - $30 \r\n.forex	282 websites - $30 \r\n.forsale 7118 websites - $30 \r\n.foundation 15401 websites - $50 \r\n.fr 2810983 websites France - $150 \r\n.fr 639546 websites International zone France:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.frl 13028 websites - $50 \r\n.fun 485622 websites - $50 \r\n.fund 14501 websites - $50 \r\n.furniture 2276 websites - $30 \r\n.futbol	2709 websites - $30 \r\n.fyi 15872 websites - $50 \r\n.ga 5041 websites Gabon - $30 \r\n.gal 5106 websites - $30 \r\n.gallery 17663 websites - $50 \r\n.game 2066 websites - $30 \r\n.games 20294 websites - $50 \r\n.garden	 2618 websites - $30 \r\n.gd 3038 websites - $30 \r\n.ge 17359 websites Georgia - $50 \r\n.ge 1676 websites International zone Georgia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.gent 3388 websites - $30 \r\n.gf 105 websites French Guiana - $30 \r\n.gg 7443 websites - $30 \r\n.gh 703 websites - $30 \r\n.gi 981 websites - $30 \r\n.gift 5001 websites - $30 \r\n.gifts 3357 websites - $30 \r\n.gives 1759 websites - $30 \r\n.gl 3558 websites - $30 \r\n.glass	3239 websites - $30 \r\n.global 48572 websites - $50 \r\n.gm 287 websites - $30 \r\n.gmbh 20786 websites - $50 \r\n.gold 9581 websites - $30 \r\n.golf 10319 websites - $50 \r\n.gop 1340 websites - $30 \r\n.gov 4195 websites - $30 \r\n.gov.np 1937 websites- $30 \r\n.gp 2014 websites - $30 \r\n.gq 63622 websites - $50 \r\n.gr 323168 websites Greece - $80 \r\n.gr 57984 websites International zone Greece:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$150 \r\n.graphics 6555 websites - $30 \r\n.gratis	4113 websites - $30 \r\n.green 5161 websites - $30 \r\n.gripe 1175 websites - $30 \r\n.group 65583 websites - $50 \r\n.gs 1008 websites Georgia - $30 \r\n.gt 15351 websites - $50 \r\n.guide 15044 websites - $50 \r\n.guitars 965 websites - $30 \r\n.guru 53088 websites - $50 \r\n.gy 2047 websites Guyana - $30 \r\n.hamburg 21585 websites - $50 \r\n.haus 5686 websites - $30 \r\n.health	13716 websites - $50 \r\n.healthcare 9001 websites - $30 \r\n.help 13098 websites - $50 \r\n.hiphop 518 websites - $30 \r\n.hiv 279 websites - $30 \r\n.hk 116093 websites - $50 \r\n.hm 229 websites - $30 \r\n.hn 4732 websites - $30 \r\n.hockey	1402 websites - $30 \r\n.holdings 5812 websites - $30 \r\n.holiday 4517 websites - $30 \r\n.homes 12499 websites - $50 \r\n.horse 2516 websites - $30 \r\n.hospital 1805 websites - $30 \r\n.host 79977 websites - $50 \r\n.hosting 3322 websites - $30 \r\n.house 19296 websites - $50 \r\n.how 2557 websites - $30 \r\n.hr 48565 websites Croatia - $50 \r\n.hr 16592 websites International zone Croatia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.ht 1299 websites - 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(79558, 28, 12410, 'your-message', 'I\'m happy to welcome you! \r\n \r\nNewsletters  via follow-up forms to the sites of firms via all countries and domain zones of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour offer is sent to E-mail address \r\n of institution 100 percent will get to inside of the inbox folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\nten thousand messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - 20 $. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price there are more 800 databases for all domain zones of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of sites- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \r\nEnterprises and organizations of the Russian Federation - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russian Federation are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of sites - 200$ \r\n \r\nOur databases: \r\nWhois-service databases of sites for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP.S. \r\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - $1950 \r\n.biz 2361884 websites business - $150 \r\n.info 6216929 websites information - $250 \r\n.net 15689222 websites network - $450 \r\n.org 10922428 websites organization - $350 \r\n \r\n.abogado 381 websites - $30 \r\n.ac 2365 websites - $30 \r\n.academy 34531 websites - $50 \r\n.accountant 96540 websites - $50 \r\n.accountants 1653 websites - $30 \r\n.actor 2287 websites - $30 \r\n.ad 323 websites - $30 \r\n.adult 10541 websites- $50 \r\n.ae 200462 websites UAE - $50 \r\n.ae 1820 websites International zone UAE:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.aero 23635 websites- $50 \r\n.af 3778 websites - $30 \r\n.africa	23341 websites- $50 \r\n.ag 11931 websites - $50 \r\n.agency 66462 websites - $50 \r\n.ai 24137 websites - $50 \r\n.airforce 592 websites - $30 \r\n.al 6078 websites - $30 \r\n.alsace	1982 websites - $50 \r\n.am 21995 websites Armenia - $50 \r\n.am 1684 websites International zone Armenia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia \r\n.amsterdam 28141 websites Amsterdam, Kingdom of the Netherlands - $30 \r\n.ao 904 websites - $30 \r\n.apartments 3758 websites - $30 \r\n.app 661404 websites - $80 \r\n.ar 551804 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.ar 64008 websites International zone Argentina:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.archi 2084 websites - $30 \r\n.army 2282 websites - $30 \r\n.art 69227 websites - $50 \r\n.as 10525 websites - $50 \r\n.asia 228418 websites - $80 \r\n.associates 3340 websites - $30 \r\n.at 1356722 websites Austria - $100 \r\n.at 181907 websites International zone Austria :.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.attorney 8204 websites - $30 \r\n.au 2432174 websites Australia - $150 \r\n.au 461279 websites International zone Australia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.auction 4125 websites - $30 \r\n.audio 23052 websites - $50 \r\n.auto 400 websites - $30 \r\n.aw 235 websites - $30 \r\n.az 11104 websites Azerbaijan - $50 \r\n.az 2036 websites International zone Azerbaijan:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.ba 2291 websites international zone Bosnia and Herzegovina:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$30 \r\n.ba 7012 websites Bosnia and Herzegovina - $30 \r\n.baby 2051 websites - $30 \r\n.band 13515 websites - $50 \r\n.bank 20424 websites - $50 \r\n.bar 50267 websites - $50 \r\n.barcelona 7919 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2997 websites - $30 \r\n.bargains 2346 websites - $30 \r\n.bayern 32565 websites - $50 \r\n.bb 2277 websites- $30 \r\n.be 1349658 websites Belgium - $150 \r\n.be 184810 websites International zone Belgium:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.beer 13834 websites- $50 \r\n.berlin 58088 websites Berlin - $50 \r\n.best 93390 websites - $50 \r\n.bet 17637 websites - $50 \r\n.bf 238 websites - $30 \r\n.bg 37152 websites Bulgaria - $50 \r\n.bg 50685 websites International zone Bulgaria:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.bh 453 websites - $30 \r\n.bi 2328 websites Burundi - $30 \r\n.bible 1760 websites - $30 \r\n.bid 474509 websites - $80 \r\n.bike 15229 websites - $50 \r\n.bingo 1232 websites - $30 \r\n.bio 15531 websites- $50 \r\n.bj 147 websites - $30 \r\n.black 6582 websites - $30 \r\n.blackfriday 12106 websites - $50 \r\n.blog 178562 websites - $80 \r\n.blue 16852 websites - $50 \r\n.bm 8089 websites Bermuda - $30 \r\n.bn 20 websites - $30 \r\n.bo 2602 websites- $30 \r\n.bo 29415 websites International zone Bolivia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.boats 266 websites - $30 \r\n.boston	21762 websites- $50 \r\n.boutique 8834 websites - $50 \r\n.br 2589383 websites Brazil - $250 \r\n.br 933750 websites International zone Brazil:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.bradesco 179 websites- $30 \r\n.broadway 261 websites- $30 \r\n.broker	1060 websites- $30 \r\n.brussels 7181 websites - $30 \r\n.bs 330 websites- $30 \r\n.bt 284 websites- $30 \r\n.build 3857 websites- $30 \r\n.builders 3906 websites- $30 \r\n.business 35168 websites - $50 \r\n.buzz 534984 websites - $80 \r\n.bw 1160 websites - $30 \r\n.by 92679 websites Belarus - $50 \r\n.by 1574 websites International zone Belarus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.bz 7751 websites - $30 \r\n.bzh 5403 websites - $30 \r\n.ca 2587463 websites Canada - $250 \r\n.ca 288395 websites International zone Canada:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.cab 3223 websites - $30 \r\n.cafe 15406 websites - $50 \r\n.cam 10316 websites - $50 \r\n.camera 5236 websites - $30 \r\n.camp 6315 websites - $30 \r\n.capetown 4750 websites - $30 \r\n.capital 14387 websites - $50 \r\n.car 342 websites - $30 \r\n.cards 5992 websites - $30 \r\n.care 23004 websites - $50 \r\n.career	1217 websites - $30 \r\n.careers 7555 websites - $30 \r\n.cars 309 websites - $30 \r\n.casa 24158 websites - $50 \r\n.cash 13193 websites - $50 \r\n.casino	5354 websites - $30 \r\n.cat 108569 websites - $50 \r\n.catering 3482 websites - $30 \r\n.cc 1920589 websites Cocos Keeling Islands- $200 \r\n.cd 5865 websites - $30 \r\n.center 39353 websites - $50 \r\n.ceo 2458 websites - $30 \r\n.cf 2291460 websites Central African Republic - $200 \r\n.cg 166 websites - $30 \r\n.ch 1627450 websites Switzerland - $150 \r\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.chat 15026 websites - $50 \r\n.cheap 3267 websites - $30 \r\n.christmas 15255 websites - $50 \r\n.church 24104 websites - $50 \r\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\'Ivoire - $30 \r\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\'Ivoire:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.city 46171 websites - $50 \r\n.cl 590401 websites Chile - $80 \r\n.cl 65996 websites International zone Chile:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.claims	2374 websites - $30 \r\n.cleaning 2385 websites - $30 \r\n.click 181015 websites - $50 \r\n.clinic 8006 websites - $30 \r\n.clothing 13639 websites - $50 \r\n.cloud	164113 websites - $50 \r\n.club 1230555 websites - $100 \r\n.cm 29221 websites Cameroon- $50 \r\n.cn 23160610 websites China - $600 \r\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$100 \r\n.co 1878923 websites Colombia - $200 \r\n.co 10854 websites International zone Colombia:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.coach 16002 websites- $50 \r\n.codes 12044 websites - $50 \r\n.coffee 19257 websites - $50 \r\n.cologne 10157 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina - $80 \r\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil – $100 \r\n.com.cy	11153 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.com.ni 23747 websites - $50 \r\n.com.np 38828 websites - $50 \r\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 98375 websites Russia - $50 \r\n.community 15013 websites - $50 \r\n.company 64217 websites - $50 \r\n.computer 5539 websites - $30 \r\n.condos	2192 websites - $30 \r\n.construction 7104 websites - $30 \r\n.consulting 27128 websites - $50 \r\n.contractors 3982 websites - $30 \r\n.cooking 1476 websites - $30 \r\n.cool 22008 websites - $50 \r\n.coop 7479 websites - $30 \r\n.corsica 1042 websites - $30 \r\n.country 7144 websites - $30 \r\n.cr 7934 websites - $30 \r\n.credit	4020 websites - $30 \r\n.creditcard 825 websites - $30 \r\n.creditunion 511 websites - $30 \r\n.cricket 33413 websites - $50 \r\n.cruises 2234 websites - $30 \r\n.cu 137 websites - $30 \r\n.cv 2279 websites - $30 \r\n.cx 15753 websites - $50 \r\n.cy 11092 websites Cyprus - $50 \r\n.cy 710 websites International zone Cyprus:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$30 \r\n.cymru 7314 websites - $30 \r\n.cz 1001208 websites Czech Republic - $100 \r\n.cz 193400 websites International zone Czech Republic:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.dance	7490 websites - $30 \r\n.date 10800 websites - $50 \r\n.dating	2892 websites - $30 \r\n.de 15078512 websites Germany - $450 \r\n.de 3894156 websites International zone Germany:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$200 \r\n.deals 8332 websites - $30 \r\n.degree	2178 websites - $30 \r\n.delivery 6282 websites - $30 \r\n.democrat 1072 websites - $30 \r\n.dental 7841 websites - $30 \r\n.dentist 3046 websites - $30 \r\n.desi 2647 websites - $50 \r\n.design 103712 websites - $50 \r\n.dev	190456 websites - $50 \r\n.diamonds 2730 websites - $30 \r\n.diet 18291 websites - $50 \r\n.digital 49449 websites - $50 \r\n.direct 12129 websites - $50 \r\n.directory 15157 websites - 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$30 \r\n.engineering 6533 websites - $30 \r\n.enterprises 6253 websites - $30 \r\n.equipment 5060 websites - $30 \r\n.es 1509048 websites Spain - $150 \r\n.es 683845 websites International zone Spain:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.estate 9285 websites - $30 \r\n.et 134 websites - $30 \r\n.eu 3046076 websites Europe - $150 \r\n.eu 633384 websites International zone Europe:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.eus 10116 websites - $50 \r\n.events 25115 websites - $50 \r\n.exchange 10432 websites - $50 \r\n.expert 34040 websites - $50 \r\n.exposed 2880 websites - $30 \r\n.express 7019 websites - $30 \r\n.fail 3692 websites - $30 \r\n.faith 4019 websites - $30 \r\n.family 21577 websites - $50 \r\n.fan 28607 websites - $50 \r\n.fans 1688 websites - $30 \r\n.farm 17009 websites - $50 \r\n.fashion 9011 websites - $30 \r\n.feedback 1301 websites - $30 \r\n.fi 188337 websites Finland - $50 \r\n.fi 69631 websites International zone Finland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.film 4501 websites - $30 \r\n.finance 9082 websites - $30 \r\n.financial 5086 websites - $30 \r\n.fish 4562 websites - $30 \r\n.fishing 1422 websites - $30 \r\n.fit 109855 websites - $50 \r\n.fitness 10689 websites - $50 \r\n.flights 2169 websites - $30 \r\n.florist 2071 websites - $30 \r\n.flowers 1187 websites - $30 \r\n.fm 3775 websites - $30 \r\n.fo 10415 websites- $50 \r\n.football 4677 websites - $30 \r\n.forex	282 websites - $30 \r\n.forsale 7118 websites - $30 \r\n.foundation 15401 websites - $50 \r\n.fr 2810983 websites France - $150 \r\n.fr 639546 websites International zone France:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$80 \r\n.frl 13028 websites - $50 \r\n.fun 485622 websites - $50 \r\n.fund 14501 websites - $50 \r\n.furniture 2276 websites - $30 \r\n.futbol	2709 websites - $30 \r\n.fyi 15872 websites - $50 \r\n.ga 5041 websites Gabon - $30 \r\n.gal 5106 websites - $30 \r\n.gallery 17663 websites - $50 \r\n.game 2066 websites - $30 \r\n.games 20294 websites - $50 \r\n.garden	 2618 websites - 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$30 \r\n.hu 618532 websites Hungary - $80 \r\n.hu 53940 websites International zone Hungary:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.icu 6331371 websites - $350 \r\n.id 61744 websites - $50 \r\n.ie 195987 websites Ireland - $50 \r\n.ie 49861 websites International zone Ireland:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.il 196266 websites Israel - $80 \r\n.il 38537 websites International zone Israel:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.im 18701 websites - $50 \r\n.immo 15409 websites - $50 \r\n.immobilien 6805 websites - $30 \r\n.in 1143482 websites India - $100 \r\n.in 266179 websites International zone India:.com .net .biz .info .name .tel .mobi .asia-$50 \r\n.industries 4312 websites - $30 \r\n.ink 28117 websites - $50 \r\n.institute 12134 websites - $50 \r\n.insure	5015 websites - $30 \r\n.int 451 websites - $30 \r\n.international 25430 websites - $50 \r\n.investments 4813 websites - $30 \r\n.io 496216 websites British Indian Ocean - $80 \r\n.iq 2401 websites - 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(79752, 28, 12440, 'your-message', 'Sending emails to millions of prospective clients may seem easy, but getting through filters and actually getting your message inboxed by decision-makers is a lot harder than it looks. \r\n \r\nMy team has mastered getting the “inbox” of key managers and would gladly help you with sales and lead prospecting. \r\n \r\nCheck out my site JustEmailMarketing.co to learn more, or just reply back to this email and I will share some of our more affordable plans that virtually guarantee new leads from your target niche clientele. \r\n \r\nLead Generation and Sales Prospecting has never been easier! \r\n \r\nThanks. \r\n \r\nJenny Wilson \r\njenny@justemailmarketing.co \r\nhttp://JustEmailMarketing.co'),
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(79760, 29, 12441, 'your-message', 'Hi Hope all the people in your teams and their famalies are safe. \r\nI want to know more about the 2 products and would want to start the investment post the same. I am on the EST time zone. Thanks '),
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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. 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(79787, 28, 12445, 'your-message', 'Dear Madame, Dear Sirs! \r\n \r\nWe offer sending newsletters of Your messages via contact configurations to the sites of companies via all countries and domain zones of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttps://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nThe message is sent to email of business organization hundred % will get to inbox! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\n10000 messages on foreign zones to your email address - 20 dollars. \r\nWe need from You only E-mail, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price there are more 800 databases for all domain zones of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domain names - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domain names- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domain names - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \r\nBusinesses of RF - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 14 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\n \r\nDatabases: \r\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all nations of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP/S \r\nPls., do not respond to this offer from your electronic box, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \r\nUse the contact form from the site https://xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites – $500 \r\n \r\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nTop 1 Million World’s Best websites – $100 \r\n \r\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. 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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the \r\n \r\nmonth) – 500$ \r\n \r\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation – there are 3012045 websites – $300 \r\n \r\nUkraine 605745 websites – $100 \r\n \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia – there are 14 countries and 1526797 websites – $200 \r\n \r\nNew websites of the Russian Federation, registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings \r\n \r\nduring the month) – 250$ \r\n \r\n1499203 of hosting websites around the world (there are selections for all countries, are \r\n \r\nexcluded from databases for mailings) – $150 \r\n \r\n142018 websites of public authorities of all countries of the world (selections for all \r\n \r\ncountries, are excluded from databases for mailings) – $100 \r\n \r\nCMS mailings: \r\n \r\nAmiro 1794 websites $50 \r\nBitrix 199550 websites $80 \r\nConcrete5 39121 websites $50 \r\nCONTENIDO 5069 websites $50 \r\nCubeCart 1062 websites $50 \r\nDatalife Engine 23220 websites $50 \r\nDiscuz 47962 websites $50 \r\nDotnetnuke 22859 websites $50 \r\nDrupal 802121 websites $100 \r\nFlexbe 15072 websites $50 \r\nHostCMS 5042 websites $50 \r\nInstantCMS 4136 websites $50 \r\nInSales 11081 websites $50 \r\nInvision Power Board 265 websites $30 \r\nJoomla 1906994 websites $200 \r\nLiferay 5137 websites $50 \r\nMagento 269488 websites $80 \r\nMODx 64023 websites $50 \r\nMovable Type 9171 websites $50 \r\nNetCat 6636 websites $50 \r\nNopCommerce 3892 websites $50 \r\nOpenCart 321057 websites $80 \r\nosCommerce 68468 websites $50 \r\nphpBB 2182 websites $50 \r\nPrestashop 92949 websites $50 \r\nShopify 604387 websites $80 \r\nSimpla 17429 websites $50 \r\nSitefinity 4183 websites $50 \r\nTextpattern 882 websites $30 \r\nTilda 47396 websites $50 \r\nTYPO3 192006 websites $80 \r\nUMI.CMS 13191 websites $50 \r\nvBulletin 8407 websites $50 \r\nWix 3379081 websites $250 \r\nWordpress 15574051 websites $450 \r\nWooCommerce 2097367 websites $210 \r\n \r\n.com 141528448 websites commercial - 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(79816, 3184, 12449, 'your-message', 'Dear Colleague,\r\nGreetings!\r\nWe are offering a great deal to advertise your products or clinical equipment’s in our conference website page in this crucial quarantine condition, Our Clinical Nursing Conference is going to held in July 23-24th, 2020. In these webinar conference Doctors, Scientists, Students, Faculty are going to participate, There is a chance of visiting your company profile and contacting you .Grasp the opportunity to advertise with us .Register fee starts from $199 for advertising and promoting.\r\nURL: https://clinicalnursing.nursingmeetings.com/\r\n'),
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(80164, 28, 12502, 'your-message', 'Hi, I got your reference from one of my colleagues at Google. My father and I have a portfolio of around ~3cr and we wanted to explore Marecellus advisory services . Please could you get in. touch. Thanks-Smita'),
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(83694, 3184, 13072, 'your-message', 'The analysis of the critical situation in the world may help Your business. We don\'t give advice on how to run it. We highlight key points from the flow of conflicting information. We call this situation: &quot;Big Brother operation&quot;. Fact:  pandemics; Agenda:  control over the human population; Aim:  reduction of the population; Who:  a group of vested interests. Means: genetic engineering of viruses and vaccines; production of nanobots; mass-media communication satellites; big data; A.I.; global wi-fi. Ways:  use and/or elaborate a pandemic carrier; mass media scares the population; load vaccines with nanobots; mandatory vaccination; control and direct humans. Thank You for the time of reading our unsolicited message! God bless You.\r\n\r\nSee https://bit.ly/evilempire-blog\r\n\r\nSee: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=fomenko+history+fiction+or+science&amp;i=stripbooks-intl-ship&amp;crid=20JCWH6NLWFHJ&amp;qid=1589389931&amp;sprefix=fomenko2C347&amp;ref=sr_pg_1'),
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(84878, 28, 13260, 'your-message', 'want to Empanelment with Marcellus, so please contact for the same.'),
(84879, 28, 13260, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 03:49:24'),
(84880, 28, 13260, 'submit_ip', '42.106.10.97'),
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(84882, 29, 13261, 'text-604', 'Srinivas Peri'),
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(84885, 29, 13261, 'your-message', 'Hey exploring options for good investment advisor. Need to consolidate what I already have and plan for the next 10 years '),
(84886, 29, 13261, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 04:10:45'),
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(84924, 3184, 13267, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\nOur company makes handmade Large world globes that can be customized for your brand, company or interior design https://bit.ly/www-largeglobes-com\r\nPlease let me know if you would be interested in a custom large world globe and we can send more information.\r\n\r\nThank you.\r\nBest regards,\r\nRemus Gall\r\nGlobemaker at www.largeglobes.com\r\nProject manager at Biodomes www.biodomes.eu\r\n+40 721 448 830\r\nSkype ID office@biodomes.eu\r\nStr. Vonhaz nr 2/a Carei, Romania\r\n\r\n-----------------------------\r\n\r\nI do not want to read these messages anymore https://bit.ly/3cvHuJC'),
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(84931, 29, 13268, 'your-message', 'Pl do call for an overview understand of your services , an based out of Hyderabad. '),
(84932, 29, 13268, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 05:21:50'),
(84933, 29, 13268, 'submit_ip', '183.83.144.28'),
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(84935, 1662, 13269, 'your-name', 'Rahul Girish Shah'),
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(84947, 28, 13271, 'text-996', 'Dinesh Ajwani'),
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(84950, 28, 13271, 'your-message', 'Would like to empanel. Pls contact'),
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(84952, 28, 13271, 'submit_ip', '122.179.152.58'),
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(84975, 2456, 13275, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 06:16:03'),
(84976, 2456, 13275, 'submit_ip', '49.36.6.42'),
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(84981, 2456, 13276, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 06:18:16'),
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(84987, 2456, 13277, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 06:20:30'),
(84988, 2456, 13277, 'submit_ip', '47.30.165.56'),
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(84994, 1662, 13278, 'submit_ip', '103.74.17.61'),
(84995, 2456, 13279, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(84996, 2456, 13279, 'your-name', 'Rashi Bhalla'),
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(84999, 2456, 13279, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 07:01:48'),
(85000, 2456, 13279, 'submit_ip', '49.36.139.64'),
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(85002, 1662, 13280, 'your-name', 'Rashi Bhalla'),
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(85005, 1662, 13280, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 07:09:13'),
(85006, 1662, 13280, 'submit_ip', '49.36.139.64'),
(85007, 3184, 13281, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85008, 3184, 13281, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(85009, 3184, 13281, 'text-172', 'VIJAY MAJALI'),
(85010, 3184, 13281, 'email-503', 'vijaymajali@gmail.com'),
(85011, 3184, 13281, 'tel-800', '9482896168'),
(85012, 3184, 13281, 'your-message', 'In coffee can investing book and Unusual Billionairs book, Sourabh mentions about use of screener with 10% revenue growth each year and 15% RoCE.  Which screener you use? I use screener.in but here screening options are slightly different. \r\nYour philosophy is similar to Joel Greenblat philosophy but he used Earnings yield and RoCE combinations. \r\nMay I know the screener that you use?'),
(85013, 3184, 13281, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 08:05:52'),
(85014, 3184, 13281, 'submit_ip', '122.252.231.138'),
(85015, 1662, 13282, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85016, 1662, 13282, 'your-name', 'kamalakar'),
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(85019, 1662, 13282, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 08:29:25'),
(85020, 1662, 13282, 'submit_ip', '196.15.23.20'),
(85021, 28, 13283, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85022, 28, 13283, 'text-996', 'vinod'),
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(85024, 28, 13283, 'tel-182', '+919820398773'),
(85025, 28, 13283, 'your-message', 'Hello Team,\r\nDo you have investment advisory product, for investors with 25L or amount less than 50L, \r\nit keeps a majority of investors like me off the Marcellus Grid :( may be you all could have something for such investors who are willing to replicate your protfolio, maybe there are other challenges. \r\nbut i would really like to invest with you guys, but the 50L is a deterrent as high as Himalaya :| '),
(85026, 28, 13283, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 09:15:41'),
(85027, 28, 13283, 'submit_ip', '84.208.241.122'),
(85028, 3184, 13284, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(85030, 3184, 13284, 'text-172', 'Vijay Kanneganti'),
(85031, 3184, 13284, 'email-503', 'vkanneganti@globusthenken.com'),
(85032, 3184, 13284, 'tel-800', '9886209677'),
(85033, 3184, 13284, 'your-message', 'I am interested in your PMS services and would like further details. Thank you.'),
(85034, 3184, 13284, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 10:18:26'),
(85035, 3184, 13284, 'submit_ip', '49.206.15.174'),
(85036, 29, 13285, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85037, 29, 13285, 'text-604', 'Mohinder pal Singh Kohli'),
(85038, 29, 13285, 'email-510', 'mp.Kohli@gmail.com'),
(85039, 29, 13285, 'tel-299', '09810003727'),
(85040, 29, 13285, 'your-message', ''),
(85041, 29, 13285, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 10:22:14'),
(85042, 29, 13285, 'submit_ip', '49.36.141.224'),
(85043, 1662, 13286, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85044, 1662, 13286, 'your-name', 'Ranjan Dutta'),
(85045, 1662, 13286, 'your-email', 'ranjandutta_1808@yahoo.com'),
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(85047, 1662, 13286, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 11:24:20'),
(85048, 1662, 13286, 'submit_ip', '103.6.158.180'),
(85049, 2456, 13287, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85050, 2456, 13287, 'your-name', 'rahul girish shah'),
(85051, 2456, 13287, 'your-email', 'vaisanselectricals@gmail.com'),
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(85053, 2456, 13287, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 11:37:23'),
(85054, 2456, 13287, 'submit_ip', '202.134.170.5'),
(85055, 29, 13288, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85056, 29, 13288, 'text-604', 'Deepak Bansal'),
(85057, 29, 13288, 'email-510', 'deepakbansal7@gmail.com'),
(85058, 29, 13288, 'tel-299', '8890670559'),
(85059, 29, 13288, 'your-message', 'I am an NRI and wish to invest in your fund. Please call me'),
(85060, 29, 13288, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 11:53:44'),
(85061, 29, 13288, 'submit_ip', '171.79.76.233'),
(85062, 29, 13289, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85063, 29, 13289, 'text-604', 'Deepak Bansal'),
(85064, 29, 13289, 'email-510', 'deepakbansal7@gmail.com'),
(85065, 29, 13289, 'tel-299', '8890670559'),
(85066, 29, 13289, 'your-message', 'I wish to invest. Please call'),
(85067, 29, 13289, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 11:58:10'),
(85068, 29, 13289, 'submit_ip', '171.79.76.233'),
(85069, 1662, 13290, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85070, 1662, 13290, 'your-name', 'Nikhil Banerjee'),
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(85072, 1662, 13290, 'tel-309', '9820409247'),
(85073, 1662, 13290, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 12:23:17'),
(85074, 1662, 13290, 'submit_ip', '49.36.13.242'),
(85075, 1662, 13291, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85076, 1662, 13291, 'your-name', 'Shan'),
(85077, 1662, 13291, 'your-email', 'rajshaan99@gmail.com'),
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(85079, 1662, 13291, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 13:28:55'),
(85080, 1662, 13291, 'submit_ip', '122.166.135.149'),
(85081, 2456, 13292, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85082, 2456, 13292, 'your-name', 'Shan'),
(85083, 2456, 13292, 'your-email', 'rajshaan99@gmail.com'),
(85084, 2456, 13292, 'tel-971', '9945225275'),
(85085, 2456, 13292, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 13:34:25'),
(85086, 2456, 13292, 'submit_ip', '122.166.135.149'),
(85087, 1662, 13293, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85088, 1662, 13293, 'your-name', 'D.J. Neiman'),
(85089, 1662, 13293, 'your-email', 'dneiman@williamblair.com'),
(85090, 1662, 13293, 'tel-309', '7732558773'),
(85091, 1662, 13293, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 13:42:53'),
(85092, 1662, 13293, 'submit_ip', '199.247.43.56'),
(85093, 29, 13294, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85094, 29, 13294, 'text-604', 'Abhishek Nagpal'),
(85095, 29, 13294, 'email-510', 'abhisheknagpal@hotmail.com'),
(85096, 29, 13294, 'tel-299', '9557705705'),
(85097, 29, 13294, 'your-message', 'Hi there. \r\nJust wanted to check on the min. requirement that you have for clients. Plus annual charges, fees, etc. '),
(85098, 29, 13294, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 13:54:04'),
(85099, 29, 13294, 'submit_ip', '223.182.17.182'),
(85100, 1662, 13295, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85101, 1662, 13295, 'your-name', 'Appurva Ujjwal Bafana'),
(85102, 1662, 13295, 'your-email', 'appurva-ujjwal.bafana@cranfield.ac.uk'),
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(85104, 1662, 13295, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 13:59:13'),
(85105, 1662, 13295, 'submit_ip', '138.250.181.155'),
(85106, 1662, 13296, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85107, 1662, 13296, 'your-name', 'RAVI NAIR'),
(85108, 1662, 13296, 'your-email', 'ravinair34@hotmail.com'),
(85109, 1662, 13296, 'tel-309', '09869720500'),
(85110, 1662, 13296, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 14:21:35'),
(85111, 1662, 13296, 'submit_ip', '103.76.77.137'),
(85112, 28, 13297, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85113, 28, 13297, 'text-996', 'SUDHANANDA BEURA'),
(85114, 28, 13297, 'email-563', 'sudhananda.beura@gmail.com'),
(85115, 28, 13297, 'tel-182', '7008032955'),
(85116, 28, 13297, 'your-message', 'Do u have advisory model portfolio product that resembles coffee can investment philosophy.hope to get a call from your team(sooner the better for me) '),
(85117, 28, 13297, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 15:43:12'),
(85118, 28, 13297, 'submit_ip', '157.41.241.26'),
(85119, 2456, 13298, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85120, 2456, 13298, 'your-name', 'KURUSH ANKLESARIA'),
(85121, 2456, 13298, 'your-email', 'artikurush2005@gmail.com'),
(85122, 2456, 13298, 'tel-971', '9461515144'),
(85123, 2456, 13298, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 15:51:27'),
(85124, 2456, 13298, 'submit_ip', '157.37.219.163'),
(85125, 2456, 13299, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85126, 2456, 13299, 'your-name', 'Vedant Maloo'),
(85127, 2456, 13299, 'your-email', 'vedantmaloo2210@gmail.com'),
(85128, 2456, 13299, 'tel-971', '9982964444'),
(85129, 2456, 13299, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 18:20:02'),
(85130, 2456, 13299, 'submit_ip', '49.36.159.196'),
(85131, 1662, 13300, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85132, 1662, 13300, 'your-name', 'Vedant Maloo'),
(85133, 1662, 13300, 'your-email', 'vedantmaloo2210@gmail.com'),
(85134, 1662, 13300, 'tel-309', '9982964444'),
(85135, 1662, 13300, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 18:20:35'),
(85136, 1662, 13300, 'submit_ip', '49.36.159.196'),
(85137, 2456, 13301, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85138, 2456, 13301, 'your-name', 'ANAND KUMAR MANDAL '),
(85139, 2456, 13301, 'your-email', 'akmandal383@gmail.com'),
(85140, 2456, 13301, 'tel-971', '8343043592'),
(85141, 2456, 13301, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 18:26:10'),
(85142, 2456, 13301, 'submit_ip', '139.5.228.141'),
(85143, 29, 13302, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85144, 29, 13302, 'text-604', 'Vivek Agarwal'),
(85145, 29, 13302, 'email-510', 'agarwal.vivek@rediffmail.com'),
(85146, 29, 13302, 'tel-299', '8240313561'),
(85147, 29, 13302, 'your-message', 'I want to work for your firm Saurabh.\r\nI am a Chartered Accountant and a Company Secretary but have always aimed for a dream job in Financial Market. I want to work for your Firm.\r\nWill be waiting for your response.'),
(85148, 29, 13302, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 19:40:20'),
(85149, 29, 13302, 'submit_ip', '47.15.211.10'),
(85150, 1662, 13303, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85151, 1662, 13303, 'your-name', 'Jonathan'),
(85152, 1662, 13303, 'your-email', 'jonathan@prevattcapital.com'),
(85153, 1662, 13303, 'tel-309', '1 242 676-2409'),
(85154, 1662, 13303, 'submit_time', '2020-05-19 21:42:44'),
(85155, 1662, 13303, 'submit_ip', '212.170.170.136'),
(85156, 1662, 13304, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85157, 1662, 13304, 'your-name', 'terilea'),
(85158, 1662, 13304, 'your-email', 'terileayates76@gmail.com'),
(85159, 1662, 13304, 'tel-309', '07925709997'),
(85160, 1662, 13304, 'submit_time', '2020-05-20 02:03:03'),
(85161, 1662, 13304, 'submit_ip', '2.217.233.165'),
(85162, 28, 13305, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(85163, 28, 13305, 'text-996', 'Sailesh Kumar'),
(85164, 28, 13305, 'email-563', 'sailesh.mulleti@financedoctor.in'),
(85165, 28, 13305, 'tel-182', '9949700435'),
(85166, 28, 13305, 'your-message', 'Our ARN-10402, in the MFD business for the past 17 years in Hyderabad. want to empanel with you. Please call me.'),
(85167, 28, 13305, 'submit_time', '2020-05-20 04:14:26'),
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(85936, 3184, 13427, 'your-message', 'LOOKING FOR INVESTMENT FOR A VERY VERY PRESTIGIOUS PROJECT OF MINE WHICH IS READY FOR PRODUCTION.\r\n'),
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(85985, 1662, 13435, 'your-name', 'Amarnath Lal'),
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(85989, 1662, 13435, 'submit_ip', '106.201.64.195'),
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(86000, 28, 13437, 'your-message', 'Please explain me the fee structure for your little champ portfolio\r\nWith numbers example\r\n\r\nAlso, do I have to give u a cheque or I can even transfer shares into your accounts\r\n\r\nRegards \r\nDeepak'),
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(86014, 28, 13439, 'your-message', 'i want to get started with you, what is the minumum entry point(min investment)of MARCELLUS?'),
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(87649, 3184, 13695, 'your-message', 'Your  books n concepts are very interesting'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(88134, 3184, 13768, 'your-message', 'This is the opportunity you have been waiting for. \r\n\r\nPull the trigger now on an explainer video from the best in the business. Do it while we are running our “best pricing ever” campaign and save thousands of dollars. \r\n\r\nThis campaign happens once in a blue moon.\r\n\r\nWell, that’s not exactly true, but it has never happened before - and I don’t suppose we will run this promotion again - hence the “best pricing ever”\r\n\r\nMy name is Eve Brooks and I look forward to working with you to create a game changing explainer and marketing video for you. Something that will be an unquestionable business asset.\r\n\r\nEmail me back for some samples. eve@shortexplainervids.com\r\n\r\n\r\n-- Eve Brooks\r\n\r\nEmail: eve@shortexplainervids.com\r\nWebsite: http://shortexplainervids.com\r\n'),
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(92806, 3184, 14512, 'your-message', 'Some one from Marcellus had sent an email earlier for distribution tie-up but I am unable to access my official id. Can some one from your sales team call me on my number.'),
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(92826, 3184, 14515, 'your-message', 'how does one get a regular report on our investment with you. Regards'),
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(92846, 3184, 14518, 'your-message', 'Hi, \r\nI am a young adult NRI in late 20\'s and have been following Marcellus since some time over social media and other platforms. Just wanted to check if the minimum investment amount for Marcellus investing is 50 lakhs? \r\n\r\nTo be honest, i only have 10 lakhs with me but still keen to start investments with Marcellus. Do let me know if that\'s doable. Thanks.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nDevansh'),
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(92854, 3184, 14519, 'your-message', 'To Know About Your Services And Want To Invest In Share Market'),
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(92900, 3184, 14526, 'your-message', 'TRIFECTA! A novel that starches your emotional – erotic itch!\r\nAgainst a background of big business, deceit, frustration, oppression drives a wide range of emotions as three generations of women from the same family, turn to the same man for emotional support and physical gratification!\r\nA wife deceives her husband while searching for her true sexuality!\r\nWhat motivates the wife’s mother and son-in-law to enter into a relationship?\r\nThe wife’s collage age daughter, with tender guidance from her step-father, achieves fulfillment!\r\nDoes this describe a dysfunctional family? Or is this unspoken social issues of modern society?\r\nBLOCKBUSTER Opening! A foursome of two pair of lesbians playing golf. A little hanky – panky, while searching for a lost ball out of bounds. Trifecta has more turns and twist than our intestines.\r\nTrifecta! Combination of my personal experiences and creativity.\r\nhttps://bit.ly/www-popejim-com for “CLICK &amp; VIEW” VIDEO. Send me your commits.\r\nAvailable amazon, book retailers.\r\nTrifecta! by James Pope'),
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(92920, 3184, 14529, 'your-message', 'Would be interested in understanding what investment options exist at Marcellus and how would they be differentiated from the ICICI Compact AIF that Saurabh Mukherjea leads - an AIF that I am currently evaluating '),
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(92946, 3184, 14533, 'your-message', 'How to get service from you on long term investments'),
(92947, 3184, 14533, 'submit_time', '2020-06-02 14:05:14'),
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(92954, 3184, 14534, 'your-message', 'Hello Team, I wanted to check if you do have products catering to non PMS category? As a retail individual, is there any product which I can subscribe , please do advise.\r\n\r\nthanks,\r\nVikkas Malhotra'),
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(93016, 3184, 14544, 'your-message', 'Could you send me fee structure for consistent compounder and little champs and what is the minimum investment.'),
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(96770, 3184, 15128, 'your-message', 'Dear Sir,\r\nWhat is the process to enroll with marcellus to sell/diatribute PMS offering .Would like to associate with such a amazing &amp; strong team.'),
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(96778, 3184, 15129, 'your-message', 'PLEASE FORWARD THIS EMAIL TO SOMEONE IN YOUR COMPANY WHO IS ALLOWED TO MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS!\r\n\r\nWe have hacked your website http://www.marcellus.in and extracted your databases.\r\n\r\nHow did this happen?\r\nOur team has found a vulnerability within your site that we were able to exploit. After finding the vulnerability we were able to get your database credentials and extract your entire database and move the information to an offshore server.\r\n\r\nWhat does this mean?\r\n\r\nWe will systematically go through a series of steps of totally damaging your reputation. First your database will be leaked or sold to the highest bidder which they will use with whatever their intentions are. Next if there are e-mails found they will be e-mailed that their information has been sold or leaked and your site http://www.marcellus.in was at fault thusly damaging your reputation and having angry customers/associates with whatever angry customers/associates do. Lastly any links that you have indexed in the search engines will be de-indexed based off of blackhat techniques that we used in the past to de-index our targets.\r\n\r\nHow do I stop this?\r\n\r\nWe are willing to refrain from destroying your site\'s reputation for a small fee. The current fee is $2000 USD in bitcoins (BTC). \r\n\r\nSend the bitcoin to the following Bitcoin address (Copy and paste as it is case sensitive):\r\n\r\n14S9qL8jxxFYyAT58vqnpFtkjg3vrF17g7\r\n\r\nOnce you have paid we will automatically get informed that it was your payment. Please note that you have to make payment within 5 days after receiving this notice or the database leak, e-mails dispatched, and de-index of your site WILL start!\r\n\r\nHow do I get Bitcoins?\r\n\r\nYou can easily buy bitcoins via several websites or even offline from a Bitcoin-ATM. We suggest you https://cex.io/ for buying bitcoins.\r\n\r\nWhat if I don’t pay?\r\n\r\nIf you decide not to pay, we will start the attack at the indicated date and uphold it until you do, there’s no counter measure to this, you will only end up wasting more money trying to find a solution. We will completely destroy your reputation amongst google and your customers.\r\n\r\nThis is not a hoax, do not reply to this email, don’t try to reason or negotiate, we will not read any replies. Once you have paid we will stop what we were doing and you will never hear from us again!\r\n\r\nPlease note that Bitcoin is anonymous and no one will find out that you have complied.'),
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(96852, 3184, 15140, 'your-message', 'Hi\r\nI have sent the request thrice to contact. I require some details on PMS administration and not the standard attachments. Could someone contact me?\r\nThanks and regards.\r\nBharatkumar'),
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(96860, 3184, 15141, 'your-message', 'Hi, We are wondering if you would be interested in our service, where we can provide you with a dofollow link from Amazon (DA 96) back to marcellus.in?\r\n\r\nThe price is just $87 per link, via Paypal.\r\n\r\nTo explain what DA is and the benefit for your website, along with a sample of an existing link, please read here: https://pastelink.net/1nm60\r\n\r\nIf you\'d be interested in learning more, reply to this email but please make sure you include the word INTERESTED in the subject line field, so we can get to your reply sooner.\r\n\r\nKind Regards,\r\nClaudia'),
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(96868, 3184, 15142, 'your-message', 'HI , I look to invest in your Little champs portfolio and look to build a portfolio..\r\nPl help n guide as I am looking to start about 5 lacs now and build over it\r\n\r\nregards\r\nUttam'),
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(96909, 3184, 15149, 'text-172', 'VINEET NANDA'),
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(96912, 3184, 15149, 'your-message', 'My firm SIFT CAPITAL based in Delhi has AUM of 650Cr. Would request someone to connect '),
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(96920, 3184, 15150, 'your-message', 'Good evening, I was just taking a look at your website and filled out your feedback form. The contact page on your site sends you these messages to your email account which is the reason you are reading through my message at this moment right? This is half the battle with any type of advertising, getting people to actually READ your advertisement and this is exactly what you\'re doing now! If you have an advertisement you would like to blast out to thousands of websites via their contact forms in the US or anywhere in the world let me know, I can even focus on specific niches and my costs are very reasonable. Send a message to: cluffcathey@gmail.com\r\n\r\nunsubscribe your website here https://bit.ly/3eOGPEY'),
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(100701, 3184, 15755, 'your-message', 'hi,\r\ninterested to various PMS offer from your side with fees &amp; other details.\r\npls reply as soon as possible.  \r\n\r\n'),
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(100721, 3184, 15758, 'your-message', 'Intrest to start pms'),
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(100726, 3184, 15759, 'text-172', 'Hemang Khakhar'),
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(100729, 3184, 15759, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurabh, I am resident in Dubai since last 15 years and associated with a bank as product manager. Prior my retirement in next 5-7 years, I would like to would like to park my small savings in to equities to earn @20-25% returns per year. Please do contact me to explore our association and take this forward. Regards Hemang\r\n'),
(100730, 3184, 15759, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 05:24:36'),
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(100740, 3184, 15761, 'text-172', 'Pranay Chadha'),
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(100743, 3184, 15761, 'your-message', 'Interested in your PMS services, need some more info'),
(100744, 3184, 15761, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 05:27:03'),
(100745, 3184, 15761, 'submit_ip', '122.177.54.87'),
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(100754, 3184, 15763, 'text-172', 'Rajesh Kumar Gupta'),
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(100757, 3184, 15763, 'your-message', 'Interested to take your services.'),
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(100768, 3184, 15765, 'text-172', 'Anil Kumar'),
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(100771, 3184, 15765, 'your-message', 'Portfolio for Investment'),
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(100773, 3184, 15765, 'submit_ip', '106.192.53.237'),
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(100778, 2456, 15766, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 05:36:58'),
(100779, 2456, 15766, 'submit_ip', '106.192.181.141'),
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(100781, 1662, 15767, 'your-name', 'tanvi bhalala'),
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(100791, 3184, 15768, 'your-message', 'Will like to know more details about your program and work in depth'),
(100792, 3184, 15768, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 05:48:29'),
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(100813, 1662, 15772, 'your-name', 'S MANOHARAN'),
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(100816, 1662, 15772, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 05:59:32'),
(100817, 1662, 15772, 'submit_ip', '122.178.143.182'),
(100818, 3184, 15773, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100820, 3184, 15773, 'text-172', 'Jagannath dutta'),
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(100822, 3184, 15773, 'tel-800', '9748202729'),
(100823, 3184, 15773, 'your-message', 'Want to invest in consistent compound  PMS'),
(100824, 3184, 15773, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 06:04:46'),
(100825, 3184, 15773, 'submit_ip', '14.139.192.254'),
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(100827, 1662, 15774, 'your-name', 'MUKESH MER'),
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(100834, 3184, 15775, 'text-172', 'MUKESH MER'),
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(100836, 3184, 15775, 'tel-800', '9422862842'),
(100837, 3184, 15775, 'your-message', 'Want to more regarding your services.\r\nRegards\r\nmukesh Mer\r\n9422862842\r\n9518397967'),
(100838, 3184, 15775, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 06:10:50'),
(100839, 3184, 15775, 'submit_ip', '49.35.108.230'),
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(100845, 1662, 15776, 'submit_ip', '203.27.235.106'),
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(100847, 1662, 15777, 'your-name', 'Himanshu Bansal'),
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(100850, 1662, 15777, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 06:26:39'),
(100851, 1662, 15777, 'submit_ip', '125.19.51.106'),
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(100853, 1662, 15778, 'your-name', 'GOPAL LAL JAT'),
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(100856, 1662, 15778, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 06:30:30'),
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(100860, 3184, 15779, 'text-172', 'DEBASHIS PADHIHARI'),
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(100862, 3184, 15779, 'tel-800', '9937600416'),
(100863, 3184, 15779, 'your-message', 'pls contact'),
(100864, 3184, 15779, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 06:52:30'),
(100865, 3184, 15779, 'submit_ip', '117.248.145.139'),
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(100867, 1662, 15780, 'your-name', 'jignesh mehta'),
(100868, 1662, 15780, 'your-email', 'jignesh1234@gmail.com'),
(100869, 1662, 15780, 'tel-309', '09223432282'),
(100870, 1662, 15780, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:00:50'),
(100871, 1662, 15780, 'submit_ip', '123.252.212.105'),
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(100873, 1662, 15781, 'your-name', 'jignesh mehta'),
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(100875, 1662, 15781, 'tel-309', '09223432282'),
(100876, 1662, 15781, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:01:03'),
(100877, 1662, 15781, 'submit_ip', '123.252.212.105'),
(100878, 3184, 15782, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100879, 3184, 15782, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(100880, 3184, 15782, 'text-172', 'Munesh Kumar Sharma'),
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(100882, 3184, 15782, 'tel-800', '7042797030'),
(100883, 3184, 15782, 'your-message', 'what is the minimum investment you take for portfolio management from an individual.');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(100884, 3184, 15782, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:10:00'),
(100885, 3184, 15782, 'submit_ip', '182.68.93.188'),
(100886, 3184, 15783, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100888, 3184, 15783, 'text-172', 'Rajesh Devarajan'),
(100889, 3184, 15783, 'email-503', 'md@hablis.com'),
(100890, 3184, 15783, 'tel-800', '+91 99400 33377'),
(100891, 3184, 15783, 'your-message', 'Hi Saurabh,\r\nI have been following your speeches and have read your books.  I am hotelier who has been traditionally investing in real estate assets and I am keen in exploring investments in the equity markets and would like to seek your services for the same.\r\n\r\nLooking forward to getting connected'),
(100892, 3184, 15783, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:13:35'),
(100893, 3184, 15783, 'submit_ip', '49.207.128.194'),
(100894, 1662, 15784, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100895, 1662, 15784, 'your-name', 'Neeraj Kumar'),
(100896, 1662, 15784, 'your-email', 'k.neeraj07@gmail.com'),
(100897, 1662, 15784, 'tel-309', '9868646263'),
(100898, 1662, 15784, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:18:26'),
(100899, 1662, 15784, 'submit_ip', '103.6.157.53'),
(100900, 1662, 15785, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100901, 1662, 15785, 'your-name', 'Prasad Nair '),
(100902, 1662, 15785, 'your-email', 'Prasadnair31@gmail.com'),
(100903, 1662, 15785, 'tel-309', '8888815085'),
(100904, 1662, 15785, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 07:28:22'),
(100905, 1662, 15785, 'submit_ip', '1.187.39.203'),
(100906, 3184, 15786, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100907, 3184, 15786, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(100908, 3184, 15786, 'text-172', 'Diveya Roop Bhandari'),
(100909, 3184, 15786, 'email-503', 'bdiveya@gmail.com'),
(100910, 3184, 15786, 'tel-800', '09307937080'),
(100911, 3184, 15786, 'your-message', 'Hi, kindly let me know about the categories of investment services provided by the firm, charges, minimum amount of investment if any and other related information which would help me and my family make a decision to avail the services provided by the firm. Tks '),
(100912, 3184, 15786, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 08:04:23'),
(100913, 3184, 15786, 'submit_ip', '103.212.158.10'),
(100914, 3184, 15787, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100915, 3184, 15787, 'menu-596', 'Investor/Resident'),
(100916, 3184, 15787, 'text-172', 'Rajesh Sharma'),
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(100918, 3184, 15787, 'tel-800', '9755000999'),
(100919, 3184, 15787, 'your-message', 'I would like to avail your PMS services pls revert . Regards '),
(100920, 3184, 15787, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 08:07:32'),
(100921, 3184, 15787, 'submit_ip', '223.238.12.220'),
(100922, 3184, 15788, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100924, 3184, 15788, 'text-172', 'Abhishek Joshi'),
(100925, 3184, 15788, 'email-503', 'abhishekjoshi489@gmail.com'),
(100926, 3184, 15788, 'tel-800', '09654525584'),
(100927, 3184, 15788, 'your-message', 'I wanted to understand if you have any kind of mutual fund or something\' where I can invest on monthly basis.'),
(100928, 3184, 15788, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 08:11:35'),
(100929, 3184, 15788, 'submit_ip', '42.111.20.213'),
(100930, 1662, 15789, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100931, 1662, 15789, 'your-name', 'MSS Securities Pvt Ltd'),
(100932, 1662, 15789, 'your-email', 'mssspl@gmail.com'),
(100933, 1662, 15789, 'tel-309', '9833558550'),
(100934, 1662, 15789, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 09:20:14'),
(100935, 1662, 15789, 'submit_ip', '1.38.220.139'),
(100936, 3184, 15790, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100938, 3184, 15790, 'text-172', 'Siddharth Lal'),
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(100940, 3184, 15790, 'tel-800', '9810293466'),
(100941, 3184, 15790, 'your-message', 'Hi, Was going through your website and liked your investment philosophy. Will appreciate if someone can call me to discuss further my interest to possibly invest in the Little Champs strategy. Thanks.'),
(100942, 3184, 15790, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 09:46:06'),
(100943, 3184, 15790, 'submit_ip', '122.162.217.143'),
(100944, 1662, 15791, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100954, 1662, 15792, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 10:21:51'),
(100955, 1662, 15792, 'submit_ip', '106.208.121.246'),
(100956, 3184, 15793, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
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(100958, 3184, 15793, 'text-172', 'Sajjan Kumar Kedia'),
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(100960, 3184, 15793, 'tel-800', '9831563168'),
(100961, 3184, 15793, 'your-message', 'Hi I am from LUX Innerwear Group.\r\nOur top management wishes to have a meeting with Mr Saurav Mukherjee.\r\nWe are looking at some investment opportunities.'),
(100962, 3184, 15793, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 10:41:04'),
(100963, 3184, 15793, 'submit_ip', '111.93.173.130'),
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(100966, 3184, 15794, 'text-172', 'Sandeep Chittar'),
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(100969, 3184, 15794, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nMy name is Sandeep and currently residing and working in Poland.\r\nIn couple of months I will be relocating back to Bangalore - India and was looking for some details about investment support that you can provide.\r\n\r\nKindly provide more details related to it.\r\n\r\nregards,\r\nSandeep'),
(100970, 3184, 15794, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 10:44:44'),
(100971, 3184, 15794, 'submit_ip', '131.228.32.166'),
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(100976, 2456, 15795, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 10:51:06'),
(100977, 2456, 15795, 'submit_ip', '183.83.9.187'),
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(100981, 2456, 15796, 'tel-971', '9999378952'),
(100982, 2456, 15796, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 11:27:22'),
(100983, 2456, 15796, 'submit_ip', '106.212.177.72'),
(100984, 1662, 15797, 'g-recaptcha-response', ''),
(100985, 1662, 15797, 'your-name', 'Subhash Desai'),
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(100987, 1662, 15797, 'tel-309', '9820848260'),
(100988, 1662, 15797, 'submit_time', '2020-06-16 11:30:59'),
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(101443, 3184, 15870, 'your-message', 'Hey hai, I\'am doctor by profession and new to investment and was looking for some PMS service. I liked ur ideas and investment strategies , So I would like to know the fee and what is the minimum amount required to opt for a  PMS service.'),
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(101477, 3184, 15875, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nLast week I sent a quick introduction about our asset liquidation, have you had time to review it?\r\n\r\nHere is why I believe this will be a great acquisition for your company:\r\n- 110.000 million searches/month in Google US alone, with an $5.93 /CPC this makes it an extremely valuable asset.\r\n- Consolidate yourself as market leader &amp; deny your competitors from acquiring it.\r\n- Thousands of qualified leads per month without spending any money on ad campaigns or hiring extra personnel.\r\n- Similar assets has sold for 5 and even 6 figures in the last 12 months (Sources: Namebio &amp; DNJournal).\r\n\r\nThis will sell in the next few days, if you want to buy now please go here:\r\nhttps://ElectricCa.rs/\r\n\r\n\r\nLooking forward in doing business with you,\r\nConstantin\r\n\r\nUnsubscribe: https://mastermindagency.uk/unsubscribe/'),
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(101509, 3184, 15880, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\nKindly share details of portfolio management details and charges.\r\nThanks \r\n'),
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(101541, 3184, 15885, 'your-message', 'I like to invest with your team \r\nBut I can invest 20lks'),
(101542, 3184, 15885, 'submit_time', '2020-06-17 10:55:15'),
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(101549, 3184, 15886, 'your-message', 'I\'m looking to invest in your PMS. Would like to get in touch.'),
(101550, 3184, 15886, 'submit_time', '2020-06-17 10:55:41'),
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(101558, 3184, 15887, 'submit_time', '2020-06-17 10:56:28'),
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(101583, 3184, 15891, 'your-message', 'I am interested in investing in your small &amp; midcap (little champs) schemes.\r\nPlease let me know how to proceed.\r\nWe can fix up time to chat as I may not always be available to answer the call because of my hospital commitments.'),
(101584, 3184, 15891, 'submit_time', '2020-06-17 12:19:42'),
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(101591, 3184, 15892, 'your-message', 'Please contact for investment advisory and services. Thanks '),
(101592, 3184, 15892, 'submit_time', '2020-06-17 12:26:10'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
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(101756, 3184, 15918, 'your-message', 'Dear sir i had read your coffee can investing and unusual billionaire books .\r\nBoth are extraordinary great books.one query regarding lal path lab .there are too many small labs in all cities .what is business moat in this company .pl.guide do you have any write up if possible can share.\r\nthanking you'),
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(101820, 3184, 15927, 'your-message', 'Hello, \r\nHope you are doing well.\r\nWe had read about Mr Saurabh\'s book Coffee Can Investing and are interested in looking at your PMS for investment. Please let us know if you share fact sheets of your PMS with list of stocks or any other document for us to understand your philosophy and the kind of stocks you have in the portfolio.\r\nRegards,\r\nPrateek'),
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(102025, 3184, 15957, 'your-message', 'I represent Quinstinct Advisory Pvt. Ltd. (ARN-132902) - Please get in touch for distribution tie up.'),
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(102033, 3184, 15958, 'your-message', 'I\'m a NRI for tax purpose. I\'m interested in starting a PMS account with Marcellus. I would like to link my NRO account for this purpose. Would I still require to make a PIS registration or can do without it as I do not intend to repatriate the amount. '),
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(102041, 3184, 15959, 'your-message', 'I m interested for marcellus service.\r\nPls contact me.'),
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(102055, 3184, 15961, 'your-message', 'Hi, I Want to invest in coffee can pms. Kindly call '),
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(102084, 3184, 15965, 'your-message', 'Hi \r\nI am interested to know about your services and offers . I am new to investment and would like to know how you would be able to help\r\n\r\nthanks and looking forward to hearing from you \r\n\r\nregards\r\nsugantha'),
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(102092, 3184, 15966, 'your-message', 'Hi, I am interested in investing in Little Champs. \r\nCan you please send me the details for that. \r\nThanks. \r\nRegards,\r\nDeepak'),
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(103072, 3184, 16116, 'your-message', 'Hello,\r\n\r\nJust wanted to know if you reviewed our offer.\r\n\r\nWe already received interest from 16 other parties and this domain is expected to sell in a few days, if you want to buy it now here is the link:\r\nhttps://ElectricCa.rs/\r\n\r\nP.S: We reduced the price one last time by another €1,100, first come first serve.\r\n\r\n\r\nLooking forward in doing business with you,\r\nConstantin\r\n\r\nUnsubscribe: https://mastermindagency.uk/unsubscribe/'),
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(103080, 3184, 16117, 'your-message', 'Hello, I am interested to invest in Little champs, or Consistent compounders. Pl let me know how to go about it.'),
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(103088, 3184, 16118, 'your-message', 'Hi, I have a few queries. Can someone please contact me.'),
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(103102, 3184, 16120, 'your-message', 'Interested in your PMS. Please send full details.'),
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(103134, 3184, 16125, 'your-message', 'Hello! After going through your website and minimum investment amount of Rs.50 lakhs i want to know weather it is one time or for every year. Waiting to hear from you'),
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(103142, 3184, 16126, 'your-message', 'hi\r\nam a indian based out of Nigeria\r\nam interested in the lil champs pms\r\nwould like to strat with 25L and depending on perfiormance can invest more\r\nplease send proposal'),
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(103236, 3184, 16140, 'your-message', 'Newsletters &amp; Blogs of Marcellus were fantastic &amp; loaded with information.Following saurabh for past 2.5 years &amp; Marcellus for past 6 Months.Regularly watching Marcellus videos on Youtube.Dedicated team &amp; great analysis of market leaders.Sad that i am not able to participate in Marcellus PMS as i could not afford 50 Lakhs.Thanks Marcellus for great insights about stocks for small retail investors like me.Continue your good work.'),
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(103268, 3184, 16145, 'your-message', 'ABOLISH REACTIVE DEPRESSION AND EMERGE FROM ITS DEEP, DARK, BLACK HOLE?\r\n• Do you feel this came from the beginnings of a dysfunctional family system?\r\n• Or did this come from the loss of a beloved job or loved one?\r\n• Or did this come from dire effects from the disease of Alcoholism?\r\n• Or did this come from the brainwashing attempts of a fearful and angry world, i.e. terroristic recruitment?\r\nDo you know that whatever caused this DEEP, DARK, BLACK HOLE OF DEPRESSION which may have come from a NERVOUS BREAKDOWN can cease its influence over your life? Yes, you do not have to live buried in negative thinking from the defeat from negative life experiences in your life. Please know that any tragic experiences from childhood to adulthood need no longer affect your chance to gain emotional wellbeing.\r\nInstead, now you have the opportunity to be HAPPY and in PEACEFUL CONTROL OF YOUR OWN DESTINY with only the memory of what once ailed you. Now is the time to overcome depression and begin to take control over your life. Not only that, you alone have the opportunity to reverse negative thinking and achieve your very own POSITIVE BELIEF SYSTEM.\r\nPLEASE NOTE: Your views on spirituality or religion will not prevent you from successfully implementing your own PARENTAL SELF-LOVE PROCESS to ACHIEVE PURPOSE, MOTIVATION, GOOD SELF-ESTEEM, SUCCESS, AND MORE. Yes, like Lin Tillman did, you too can ACHIEVE MORE THAN YOU ASKED FOR and make meaningful and healthy contributions to this planet.\r\nYou can learn more about Lin’s journey in her book The Invisible Girl &amp; GOD, where she shares her TRUE STORY of how she healed herself from an agonizing depression with suicidal ideations.\r\nGO TO: https://bit.ly/Depression-self-help to learn more'),
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(103276, 3184, 16146, 'your-message', 'I want to know more about investing with you. Request you to arrange a call back. Thanks. '),
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(103833, 3184, 16234, 'your-message', 'The self education industry is a $355 Million per day industry and is expected to TRIPLE in the next 5 years! And with the right strategy this could be your opportunity to:\r\n\r\nGet in early before it is oversaturated.\r\nHelp others go faster while you get paid\r\nFix a broken system\r\nMake an impact on the world\r\nGet paid for a skill, hobby, passion or expertise you already have (or get paid from someone else’s)\r\n\r\nAnd Tony Robbins, Russell Brunson and Dean Graziosi are finally going to show YOU how to take advantage of it…\r\n\r\n(Now if you don’t already know who these 3 guys are then you’ll want to listen up!! They’ve impacted millions of lives and have generated billions of dollars)\r\n\r\nLook, if you’ve ever thought about (or even if you never thought about) getting paid for something you know (like a passion or a skill)... or even getting paid from what others know, then you have to attend.\r\n\r\nThis is one of the fastest growing industries online and in all areas of the world.\r\n\r\nAnd for the first time ever they’re doing a webclass training on how to extract your wisdom (or somebody else’s) and get other people to pay you for it!\r\n\r\nYou can save your spot here (and when you do register, you’re immediately going to get a brand new, never before seen training from Tony and Dean. No one else will ever get a chance to see this rare training except for us).\r\n\r\nkbbmint.com\r\n\r\nAfter hearing what they’re teaching, I truly believe this is the #1 way to make a massive income, make a massive impact on the world and leave a legacy!\r\n\r\nAnd here’s just a fraction of what you’ll learn this week:\r\n\r\nThe mostly hidden $129 Billion dollar market and how you can make a massive impact and leave a legacy by profiting from it.\r\n\r\nThe KBB Triangle: The 3 ways to profit (whether you’re an expert with a thriving business, just getting started, or even if you’re at complete rock bottom)\r\n\r\nThe framework to profit from what you (or someone else) already knows - or by creating community and bringing people together.\r\n\r\nPlus you’ll even be able to ask them questions when they do Q&amp;A at the end of the training. (Chat is limited so show up early).\r\n\r\nThere’s no other time where you’re going to have this opportunity. So BE THERE! Because if you’re not going to make a shift in your life now, then when? And if not with these guys, then let me ask with who?\r\n\r\nThis is your rare chance to learn from 3 people who started from nothing and went on to generate billions of dollars and build massive companies.\r\n\r\nSpots are filling up faster than they ever have, so you need to hurry and go here to save your spot\r\n\r\nhttps://kbbmint.com\r\n\r\nRegister now and I’ll see you there this week - Plus they did a few brand new “pre-event” trainings that only those who register get access to.\r\n\r\nTalk soon'),
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(108980, 3184, 17029, 'your-message', 'Hi my family and I have been thinking about investing in ccp or little champs. I have Also read coffee can investing and unusual billionaires. Ccp has been able to provide returns even in 09 crash. Was wondering if you could share some details of how the fund had been performing this year as corona hit and earnings are delayed which likely make the market crash once more. My father is against the coffee can philosophy of long term holding so I know it likely that the stocks will correct in the long run but if I can show him some data for the current period. I think we will be likely to invest. \r\n\r\nThank you!\r\nSahil '),
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(109092, 3184, 17046, 'your-message', '`Regarding Little champs it has been closed , what are the possibility that may be opened , further regarding  PMS the entire 50 lacs should be invested at one stretch payment or how is it done , Finally i like to know what is the possibility of investing every month few lacs , is the any portfolio designed for that sort of investing., On 9th Webinar MR rakshit Ranjan who spoke and explained  , will the entire webinar would be reprinted as i lost the track of Mr Rakshit Ranjan analysis of one investment which i like to clarify or learnfrom him.\r\ni appreciate your reply.\r\n\r\nDR VENKATESHAN\r\n'),
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(109372, 3184, 17090, 'your-message', 'sir could you please streamline/ease formalities to be complied with for existing PMS Investors by doing away filling lengthy forms again and just having a topup form or additional 1-page annexure for investing in other or new schemes-it will save a lot of time/cost (40-50 page forms) and same time obviate unnecessary mistakes might occur while filling new forms-as his data being existing investor already captured and no need and point doing repetitive work again- also it will reduce account opening time a lot and speed-up client investment  '),
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(109376, 1662, 17091, 'your-name', 'A L JAIN'),
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(109465, 3184, 17105, 'text-172', 'Sandeep pareek'),
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(109468, 3184, 17105, 'your-message', 'I am interesting in your PM\'s service...'),
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(109472, 1662, 17106, 'your-name', 'Chandresh');
INSERT INTO `mr_cf7_vdata_entry` (`id`, `cf7_id`, `data_id`, `name`, `value`) VALUES
(109473, 1662, 17106, 'your-email', 'chandresh_d@hotmail.com'),
(109474, 1662, 17106, 'tel-309', '9833818811'),
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(109476, 1662, 17106, 'submit_ip', '42.106.254.197'),
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(109479, 3184, 17107, 'text-172', 'ANAND RAJ'),
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(109481, 3184, 17107, 'tel-800', '9911067248'),
(109482, 3184, 17107, 'your-message', 'Short synopsis of my profile- \r\n\r\n·  Level 3 Certified Pro-Trader from OTA, California – A Patented Strategy.\r\n\r\n·  NISM - VIII Certified.\r\n\r\n·  Managed Investment and Trading for an Angel Investor.\r\n\r\n·  Brand Ambassador for Digital Platform for Mutual funds – Finwizard Technologies.\r\n\r\n·  Proprietor at SMC Global Securities Franchise.  \r\n\r\n·  Good at uncovering the price zones of FII &amp; DII and trade at very price zone.\r\n\r\n·  Hold of all Greeks in Options chain --&gt; Hedging to benefit from all situations.\r\n\r\n·  Good at analyzing Higher Time frames to get a gross chunk of move in Index/Equity charts.\r\n\r\n \r\n\r\nCan I have a small amount of your time to talk in detail.'),
(109483, 3184, 17107, 'submit_time', '2020-07-11 08:38:27'),
(109484, 3184, 17107, 'submit_ip', '106.67.120.134'),
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(109492, 2456, 17109, 'your-name', 'Vineet Jain'),
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(109496, 2456, 17109, 'submit_ip', '223.233.73.225'),
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(109499, 3184, 17110, 'text-172', 'JANAK PARIKH'),
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(109502, 3184, 17110, 'your-message', 'would like to invest your pms. '),
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(109519, 3184, 17113, 'text-172', 'Ravi'),
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(109522, 3184, 17113, 'your-message', 'i would like to avail PMS services. please guide me on this'),
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(109530, 3184, 17114, 'your-message', 'Please call. Need to discuss plans and strategy.'),
(109531, 3184, 17114, 'submit_time', '2020-07-11 13:38:15'),
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(2, 1433, 'AffiliateLabz', 'comments@affiliatelabz.com', 'https://affiliatelabz.com/special/?source=marcellus.in', '62.171.135.115', '2020-02-15 22:35:25', '2020-02-15 22:35:25', 'Great content! Super high-quality! Keep it up! :)', 0, '0', 'Mozilla/5.0 (compatible; AffiliateLabz/1.0; +https://affiliatelabz.com/)', '', 0, 0),
(3, 1433, '钻网', 'zuan@gmail.com', 'https://www.zuan.pw/', '202.5.31.137', '2020-04-29 09:13:17', '2020-04-29 09:13:17', '春暖花开，下次再来！', 0, '0', 'Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1) AppleWebKit/535.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/14.0.802.30 Safari/535.1 SE 2.X MetaSr 1.0', '', 0, 0),
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(2, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ravi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sanon\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"rsanon@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919810040506\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:117:\"I am interested in the products being offered by your company. Kindly send me an e mail or ask someone to contact me.\";}', '2018-12-19 10:16:46'),
(3, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"raja girish \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"bilugudi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"brgirish2000@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09650533390\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"Hi, I am interested to know more about your PMS and charges involved.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nRaja\";}', '2018-12-20 09:59:32'),
(4, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:21:\"Venkata Krishna Reddy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Kovvuri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"kvkr19@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+973 36797265\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2018-12-20 10:20:28'),
(5, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Prabhu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"C S\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"prabhu_csp@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9972455355\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2018-12-20 15:02:47'),
(6, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Jai\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Diwanji\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"jsdiwanji@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"Kindly contact me on the above email address, I may be interested to invest in your investment products. \";}', '2018-12-21 07:22:46'),
(7, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Kanchan \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kalra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"kanchan.mandhani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920012593\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:85:\"I am looking investment in PMS and mutual funds .. I have nearly 40 mutual funds in m\";}', '2018-12-22 04:00:58'),
(8, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sameer\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Sawant\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"sameermsawant@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:126:\"What are the PMS products on offer?\r\nAlso what is the ticket size of consistent compounded?\r\nCan  I have some details please..\";}', '2018-12-22 11:26:02'),
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(10, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Annamalai\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Muthiah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"annamalaimu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6592394257\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:537:\"Hi,\r\nThis is Annamalai, I was looking for the PMS service for some time and analysed few services , reached out to Ambit as well and on the search I found the Coffee cab was developed by Saurabh and I also got fascinated by his approach, I live at Singapore and I am looking at exploring your PMS service, I am a long term investor and would would look for a good appreciation, Would be good if we would have a conversational I am trying to explore starting a service very soon and exploring few players.\r\n\r\nThank You\r\nRegards\r\nAnnamalai\";}', '2018-12-23 09:41:15'),
(11, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kanchan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kalra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"kanchan.mandhani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920012593\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2018-12-24 04:32:04'),
(12, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Jai\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Sandhawalia\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"jaisands@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9876006941\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"Send me details when your PMS launches\";}', '2018-12-25 10:05:00'),
(13, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kanchan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kalra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"kanchan.mandhani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920012593\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:84:\"Hi , can some one call me on urgent basis as I am looking for PMS guidance .. urgent\";}', '2018-12-26 05:28:25'),
(14, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Bharat\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Joshi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"bvjoshi@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Please advise your plans&#047;offering.......\";}', '2018-12-27 01:20:46'),
(15, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Sivakumar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:2:\"TB\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"sivakumar_tb@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9445190171\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:206:\"Interested in engage with Mr. Saurabh & his team for creating better from my monthly savings.. looking to build a corpus of 3 cr in 10 - 12 years time by actively participating in direct equity investments \";}', '2018-12-27 12:09:17'),
(16, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Sivakumar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:2:\"TB\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"sivakumar_tb@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9445190171\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:206:\"Interested in engage with Mr. Saurabh & his team for creating better from my monthly savings.. looking to build a corpus of 3 cr in 10 - 12 years time by actively participating in direct equity investments \";}', '2018-12-27 12:09:18'),
(17, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sushant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Gaur\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sushant.gaur@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919999728456\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"Hi, I want to know when are you starting to take money for pms\";}', '2018-12-28 10:13:47'),
(18, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ashish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Golechha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"golechha.ashish@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09820518162\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:192:\"I am quite impressed by philosophy and approach of Marcellus. I am a big fan of Saurabh. Would like to join Marcellus PMS. Please let me know whom to get in touch with. Cheers, Ashish Golechha\";}', '2018-12-28 19:03:29'),
(19, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vijay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Anand K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"ecube1999@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9282244080\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:196:\"I have read all of what Saurabh writes and was about to invest in the Ambit PMS when he suddenly quit. Came across his new venture and am very interested in the same. Please let me know the terms.\";}', '2018-12-28 21:18:56'),
(20, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Anil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Bajpai\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"anilbajpai@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845201482\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:102:\"Interested in knowing about your offerings and how it help me who manages his money mostly by himself.\";}', '2018-12-28 21:22:09'),
(21, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Padmanabham\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"T\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"thatigolla@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9900919350\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:222:\"Hi, I am a working professional in a private firm in Bangalore. I would like to understand about your services. I am interested interested into long term investments. Please call back on my mobile. \r\nThanks.\r\n Padmanabham \";}', '2018-12-29 05:49:36'),
(22, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Piyush\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Suri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"piyushsuri@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9899009401\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:64:\"Hi, I am interested in your PMS. Please let me know the details.\";}', '2018-12-29 10:14:35'),
(23, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kadam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"prashant.kadam@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8888983126\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:91:\"would like to know about PMS offering, philosophy, minimum investments, charging structure.\";}', '2018-12-30 16:24:15'),
(24, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Rakshit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Ranjan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"rakshitran@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9930111912\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:43:\"Test Message to check where these emails go\";}', '2018-12-31 09:58:20'),
(25, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Shan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Mohamed\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"shan@spacewll.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"0097466400199\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Looking for investment opportunities and keen to know your business model\";}', '2018-12-31 18:03:28'),
(26, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"bhagya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"t\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"bhagya.tata@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:82:\"Just wanted to know the terms of the PMS - minimum investment, fees , lock in etc.\";}', '2019-01-01 09:13:48'),
(27, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vedant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Vyas\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"vedant3841@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-03 05:34:38'),
(28, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Debasis\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Laha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"debasislaha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+966568858036\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"Need to invest in PMS service. Need more of your products. \";}', '2019-01-06 19:33:22'),
(29, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sagar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Manikpure\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sagarmanikpure@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9986987462\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:153:\"Hi,\r\nI would like to know more about your product&#047;offerings..esp the PMS service terms&#047;pricing etc. Could you please share the details. Thanks.\";}', '2019-01-07 17:07:09'),
(30, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Hisham\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Imtiaz \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"hishu91@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919840430282\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:57:\"I&#039;m interested in the PMS. Pls give me the details. \";}', '2019-01-08 05:58:22'),
(31, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Debasis\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Laha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"debasislaha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"+96656885803\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:209:\"Dear Mr. Mukherjee, I am very interested to join in your PMS service. I have no idea when our system will be started. Also there is no details of your product in the website. I need your support on this issue.\";}', '2019-01-08 07:53:14'),
(32, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Debasis\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Laha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"debasislaha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+966568858036\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:100:\"Dear Mr. Mukherjee, I am interested to join your PMS service.Please send me details of your service.\";}', '2019-01-08 07:57:00'),
(33, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"YOGESHWAR\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"SINGH\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:30:\"singh.yogeshwar@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"91-9999162007\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:58:\"i am interested to invest in portfolio management services\";}', '2019-01-08 09:31:18'),
(34, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Pushpinder \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"pushpinder7@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9464953238\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"Details of PMS\";}', '2019-01-08 10:12:11'),
(35, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Amol\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Chaporkar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"amolchaporkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833218075\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Would like to know more about your investment philosophy and the product.\";}', '2019-01-09 06:48:38'),
(36, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Ernest \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gulla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"emgulla28@msn.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"5086311414 \";s:12:\"your-message\";s:186:\"Please provide me with a contact name & phone number so I can call and find more info. about your company.   I live in Massachusetts and let me know  the best times to call.      Ernest \";}', '2019-01-09 18:55:15'),
(37, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Ernest \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gulla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"emgulla28@msn.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"5086311414 \";s:12:\"your-message\";s:186:\"Please provide me with a contact name & phone number so I can call and find more info. about your company.   I live in Massachusetts and let me know  the best times to call.      Ernest \";}', '2019-01-09 18:55:15'),
(38, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"ernest\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"gulla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"emgulla28@msn.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"5086311414 \";s:12:\"your-message\";s:133:\"Hello\r\n Pl . provide me with a contact name and phone number so I can call and find out more about your  company .     Thanks Ernest \";}', '2019-01-09 18:57:55'),
(39, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Subhendu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mandal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"mandalsubhendu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8980070079\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:43:\"Would be interested to know about your PMS \";}', '2019-01-10 15:07:37'),
(40, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Subhendu \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Sarkar \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"imsubhendu@gmail.con\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9916300607\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-11 15:29:29'),
(41, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Debasis\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Laha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"debasislaha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+966568858036\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:112:\"Sir, I have interest to join with PMS service. Please let me know your details of investment. regds Debasis Laha\";}', '2019-01-14 05:03:54'),
(42, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Bahirwani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"krishnabahirwani@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920141433\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:72:\"Would like more information on your PMS offering as soon as it is ready.\";}', '2019-01-16 15:32:38'),
(43, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vikram\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Kantharaju\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"dr_vikramkk@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00447721840499\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-17 12:37:58'),
(44, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Moti\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sagar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"motisagarfzr@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8360862146\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:96:\"A fan of revered Sourabh M and Coffee Can Investing. Hope to join     Marcellus as an investor. \";}', '2019-01-19 13:18:10'),
(45, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Sambhy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"adityasambhy@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9891190202\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"Would be keen to showcase your PMS options to clients.\";}', '2019-01-19 18:40:07'),
(46, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Sambhy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"adityasambhy@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9891190202\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-19 18:40:22'),
(47, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Sambhy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"adityasambhy@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9891190202\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:63:\"Am keen to showcase more of your investment ideas to my clients\";}', '2019-01-19 18:40:45'),
(48, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rakesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Parmar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"rpnitb@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:35:\"Interested in Sourabh&#039; service\";}', '2019-01-21 01:47:04'),
(49, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Ashok\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Manocha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"contact@hewepro.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9818233166\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"Pls contact\";}', '2019-01-21 18:34:52'),
(50, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"shrishti\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"sahu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"shrishtisahu18@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9795799999\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:157:\"Please send me information about the services you&#039;re offering. Would be interested in something on the similar lines of the coffee can portfolio. Thanks\";}', '2019-01-22 20:33:01'),
(51, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"punit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"agarawal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"punit@shivanigroup.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:193:\"i attended your surat event last week and am reading your books. wish to start a PMS. kindly share if can be done with ASK team as my portfolio is managed by them. else will have to buy direct \";}', '2019-01-23 05:04:52'),
(52, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Amit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Pradhan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"amitpradhan@aol.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820193925\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:69:\"Interest in your PMs. Request if some one from  sales can write to me\";}', '2019-01-23 08:53:40'),
(53, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Vishal \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Mahajan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"vishal@sixthelement.capital\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9833533227\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:44:\"Pls share details or time to meet n discuss.\";}', '2019-01-23 13:42:29'),
(54, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Satvinder\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"bachher\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"sbachher@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820337149\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:68:\"Can i know what is the min investment amnt required, for your scheme\";}', '2019-01-24 10:18:53'),
(55, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Akashdeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Howladar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:15:\"amh@relaugh.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7044989363\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:205:\"We met at Nirmal Bang, Borivali last week. \r\n1.Pls provide a PDF detailing the various charges of doing PMS with you.\r\n2. Also do you accept staggered investment that is 5lacs per month or quarterly basis?\";}', '2019-01-24 10:35:37'),
(56, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Neeraj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Pathak\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"neerajpathk@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9811946546\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:28:\"Hi, interested in investment\";}', '2019-01-26 07:31:33'),
(57, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Gurbachan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"gurbachan.arti@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919910058954\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Are you accepting money for PMS? If yes, what are the particulars? Thanks\";}', '2019-01-26 14:01:41'),
(58, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Akshay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Gharpure\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"akshaygharpure@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:70:\"When will your Coffee can mutual fund start? Will it accept NRI money?\";}', '2019-01-28 04:33:50'),
(59, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Deepak\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Naidu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"deepaknaidu@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:107:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nCan you please email me details about the Consistent Compounders Portfolio?\r\n\r\nThank you,\r\nDeepak\";}', '2019-01-28 15:47:04'),
(60, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sumit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Pathak\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"sumit.pathak.001@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971504511434\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:102:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nI am an NRI retail investor and interested to know more about your offerings.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nSumit\";}', '2019-01-29 11:10:51'),
(61, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"saurabh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"saurabh0605@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"07738384518\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:47:\"Will be interested to know about the PMS scheme\";}', '2019-01-29 11:27:14'),
(62, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Raghav\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Behani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"hello@wealthman.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7389941051\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"I am a MF advisor and distributor looking to develop business relations with your firm.\";}', '2019-01-29 11:39:39'),
(63, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kaushal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"officesobbpl@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9934177777\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:117:\"I subscribed to PMS with Ambit when Saurabh Mukherjea was with Ambit. I am interested in PMS if Marcellus offers one.\";}', '2019-01-29 12:24:44'),
(64, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Ashish\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Sinha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"itsasinha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9881061430\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:661:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nI am Ashish and am based in Pune. \r\nI have read Saurabh&#039;s book on Coffee Can Investing and found it very interesting. \r\nAlso have tried tracking Saurabh&#039;s views in TV and Social Media.\r\n\r\nI understand, Marcellus is a new firm (in Google search ..this site comes in the 3rd or 4th page) providing PMS services.  I would like to know the following.\r\n\r\n1. What is the minimum ticket size for PMS\r\n2. What is your fees structure\r\n3. How much returns should one expect by investing in PMS provided by you.\r\n4. Am I right in assuming that the returns from PMS would be superior to Coffee can Investing.\r\n\r\nAppreciate your response.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nAshish\";}', '2019-01-29 14:14:36'),
(65, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Karun \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Verma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"drkarunverma@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8360720946\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:76:\"I am interested in your PMS. Kindly send me presentation regarding your pms.\";}', '2019-01-29 14:56:26'),
(66, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Deepak \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Gupta \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"dearestdeepak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-29 15:13:59'),
(67, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Srinivas\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Kowtal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"srinivaskay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+919845553190\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:23:\"Interested in your PMS.\";}', '2019-01-29 16:18:46'),
(68, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Jitendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"jitendrakumarc302@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9958555009\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:139:\"Kindly send me the details of your investment ideas and how to go about. I’m from Delhi and presently posted in Jodhpur and my age is 57.\";}', '2019-01-29 16:20:42'),
(69, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Mishal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Thakkar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"mishalt@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820560060\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:49:\"Interested to know more about your PMS offering\r\n\";}', '2019-01-29 18:13:47'),
(70, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Jitendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Jogeshwar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"jitendra.jogeshwar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920161031\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:20:\"Interested in invest\";}', '2019-01-29 18:40:15'),
(71, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Jitesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Punjabi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"punjabi_jitesh@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9441219582\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:95:\"Hello Team , I am interested in knowing more about the PMS service being offered by Marcellus .\";}', '2019-01-29 23:21:30'),
(72, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Tushar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Bhardwaj\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"mailtusharbhardwaj@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9871775151\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:456:\"Hello Team, I have tried contacting Saurabh Mukherjea via several means like LinkedIn but got no further. Nevertheless, I am contacting because I have created a tool around Indian equity markets (NSE particularly) which works very well in terms of entering a stock but require some fine tuning on the exit front. It would be great if we could in any way partner to improve this tool further and mutually benefit from this. Looking to hearing from you soon.\";}', '2019-01-29 23:41:02'),
(73, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kunal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"kunal8085@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"0416648422\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"I am interested to know&#047;read about the service&#039;s provided and the charges.\r\n \";}', '2019-01-30 01:51:38'),
(74, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rattan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Deep\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"rattan@rdcaps.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+919945211444\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Will be interested in allocating your PMS to few of our investors\";}', '2019-01-31 05:50:54'),
(75, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:1:\"s\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"s\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:7:\"s@s.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1:\"s\";}', '2019-01-31 07:30:33'),
(76, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Rupesh \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Bhambwani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"rincks@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9819470000\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-31 07:35:40'),
(77, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Manoj \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Yadav\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"manojyadv@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9650747538\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:16:\"Intersted in PMS\";}', '2019-01-31 07:51:16'),
(78, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"sunil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"kawariya\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:32:\"sunil.kawariya@righthorizons.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"90350011520\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:106:\"we would like to associates for distribution.\r\nRegards\r\nSunil\r\nHead of Investment Advisory\r\nRight Horizons\";}', '2019-01-31 09:33:20'),
(79, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Chikkegowda\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Puttaramanna\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"chikkegowdap17@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8073028220\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-01-31 12:20:02'),
(80, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Chikkegowda\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Puttaramanna\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"chikkegowdap17@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8073028220\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Good job, keep continuing,,,,,\";}', '2019-01-31 12:21:18'),
(81, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ismail\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:14:\"Shaik Mohammed\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"shaiki4379@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9871435786\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:94:\"Grateful if you could kindly arrange to me complete details about your proposed scheme. Thanks\";}', '2019-01-31 13:31:22'),
(82, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Chanderkant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Sheoran\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"itschanderkant@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+918585930339\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:63:\"Hi\r\nI am looking for investing. May i get your details. Regards\";}', '2019-01-31 14:05:58'),
(83, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"hemant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Dashrath\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"hemant.dashrath@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09822099979\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:63:\"wanted to know about your advisory &#047; pms  services  thanks\";}', '2019-01-31 15:29:57'),
(84, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"neeraj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"sisodia\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"neerajsisodia@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7734953353\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:86:\"Hi, I am an investor in the Indian markets and would like to know about your services.\";}', '2019-01-31 16:44:01'),
(85, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Abhishek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Prabhu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"abhishek.prabhu@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9022803807\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-01 09:42:08'),
(86, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Bunty\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Peerbhoy \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"bunty_p@maa.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9886025002\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:68:\"Would like to know more about your services and investment offerings\";}', '2019-02-02 01:58:58'),
(87, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Guruprasad\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"MV\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"gmysore74@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971565372010\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"Hello,\r\nI&#039;m a Dubai based NRI and am interested in learning more about your PMS. Thanks.\r\nGuruprasad\";}', '2019-02-02 06:54:31'),
(88, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"MANJIRI\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"KULKARNI\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"manjiri.sk@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9822003806\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:37:\"Based in Pune, keen on joining in PMS\";}', '2019-02-02 13:43:13'),
(89, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Manik\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Ahluwalia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"buildwealthfp@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9911162645\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:159:\"I am opening up a financial advisory (IFA) and looking for PMS investment as options for our clients. Wanted to know if you let distributors resell the product\";}', '2019-02-03 09:19:26'),
(90, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:15:\"Maun Dhyanchand\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"maun.dhyan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:143:\"I&#039;m a NRI looking to invest in Indian equities.  I&#039;m interested in getting info about your Consistent Compounders Portfolio.  Thanks.\";}', '2019-02-03 14:58:55'),
(91, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Pinto\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"adityapinto@minance.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8104869288\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:584:\"Hi Saurabh,\r\n\r\nI&#039;m a great admirer of your work with Ambit. Allow me to introduce myself, I work with Minance which is a private wealth management company based in Bangalore. We&#039;re more than just a traditional private wealth management. Minance was founded in 2014 and over the years we&#039;ve managed to build a clientele of 3000+ partners across India with an AUM of over 300 crores. \r\n\r\nWe&#039;d love to work with you to offer your PMS services to our existing clientele. Let me know how you&#039;d like to take things forward. Looking forward to hearing from you soon.\";}', '2019-02-04 07:23:47'),
(92, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Jay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Jalali\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"jalali.jay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+4168325224\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:406:\"Hello Saurabh, Rakshit and team,\r\nI am currently an investor in the coffee can portfolio at Ambit and have been a great advocate and ambassador of your books. I am a close and dear friend to Mr Sachiv Sahni who introduced me to Ambit in 2014 through which I got to know of the CCP.\r\nI would like to discuss portfolio management opportunities with Marcellus for myself and family.\r\nThanks and Regards,\r\nJay.\";}', '2019-02-05 19:43:21'),
(93, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"mehul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"khona\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"mehul.khona@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9892513124\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:80:\"pl let me know the pms scheme u have to  offer \r\npl mail the presentation \r\n\r\n  \";}', '2019-02-06 04:57:46'),
(94, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"KIRAN\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"BHAT\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"ADMIN@YASHCONSULTANTS.IN\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9324567137\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:272:\"WE ARE DISTRIBUTOR OF  MUTUTAL FUND AND PMS\r\nAUM APPX RS 450 CR\r\nPRESENTLY WE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH  ALCHEMY, ASK, MULTIACT, ACCURACAP, ALFACCURATE, SUNDARAM\r\nOUR CLIENTES INTERESTED  IN YOUR PRODUCTS. \r\nCOULD  YOU SEND THE DETAILS TO US\r\nTHANKS &#047;REGDS&#047; KIRAN BHAT\";}', '2019-02-06 10:39:31'),
(95, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vivek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Joshi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"vivek@startupfundas.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810290854\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:44:\"Intertested in PMS. Please send more details\";}', '2019-02-06 18:14:21'),
(96, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:4:\"read\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"EASWARAN\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"T S A \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"EASWARATSA@YAHOO.COM\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9894155841\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:126:\"Dear Sir, \r\nWe want to empanel with you, kindly share the schemes and commercials.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nT S A Easwaran, IFA, Coimbatore\";}', '2019-02-07 11:04:49'),
(97, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kamal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Wadhwani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"kamalwadhwani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9867534873\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:111:\"Looking to invest with your PMS,  Request you to kindly reach me at 9867534873 on weekdays between 11 AM- 3 PM \";}', '2019-02-07 12:36:28'),
(98, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"prabahar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"srinivasan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"b703green@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09880152991\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-07 13:39:24'),
(99, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"rahul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"nainwal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"nainwal@mitra.org.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:27:\"I&#039;m interested in PMS \";}', '2019-02-08 06:53:19'),
(100, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Priyam\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Pai\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"priyam10@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09821139707\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:68:\"Was interested in the PMS services as an investor. Please contact me\";}', '2019-02-08 07:08:11'),
(101, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vivek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"sah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"viveksah@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920146018\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:58:\"Hi\r\nPls share details of your PMS offerings\r\nThanks\r\nVivek\";}', '2019-02-08 10:31:17'),
(102, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"priyal \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"chaubey \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"priyal.chaubey@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:148:\"Hi,  what is the minimum amnt with which i can join urboms services, what is the fee and if u wish to share some more details with me abt the pms.\r\n\";}', '2019-02-09 03:36:37'),
(103, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kazim\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Surve\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"kazimsurve@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971544450015\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:136:\"Would like to know your PMS structure and investment portfolio. Would also like to know the benefit of investing in PMS of your company.\";}', '2019-02-09 05:56:37'),
(104, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"rajeev\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"rajeevgupta77@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:8:\"84985072\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"I am based in Singapore and would like to understand how your pms works for NRI customers ? \";}', '2019-02-10 07:52:49'),
(105, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Kanaw \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Agarwal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"kanaw.a@cloudroute.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8655573853\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"Kanaw created lead from Distributor form\";}', '2019-02-12 07:07:56'),
(106, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Snehal \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dalvi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"snehal@cloudroute.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"18655573853\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:32:\"Snehal Testing Investor Account \";}', '2019-02-12 07:25:18'),
(107, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Salesforce\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"shobittest@cloudroute.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"1234567890\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"test by shobit\";}', '2019-02-12 07:30:17'),
(108, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Kanav \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Agrawal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"agrawal.kanav@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7620346480\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:21:\"Welcome to Cloudroute\";}', '2019-02-12 08:04:27'),
(109, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Abhishek \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Deshmukh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"deshmukh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"78451245820\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:33:\"hxbshxbsjxhb skjb xkshbxshxbJBS X\";}', '2019-02-12 08:06:08'),
(110, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"mr.\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Jain\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:14:\"Jain@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:7:\"1545121\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:19:\"cfcfcdxxvcdxgfccdxh\";}', '2019-02-12 08:32:38'),
(111, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:2:\"MR\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"JAIN\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"kunal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"457842000\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:21:\"vdvcgvdcvudhcvudhcbjd\";}', '2019-02-12 08:35:00'),
(112, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Jio\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:13:\"jio@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:7:\"6484162\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\"vchdjshv dgvc gdvcHSGvckhgcvkdgcvKGVSYDGVCKGDJcDJCHBDLhcVDLHC\";}', '2019-02-12 08:38:35'),
(113, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:2:\"Dr\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"prashant@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:9:\"124574520\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\" SxsyxfytcfRSCFUYttgkaxhUHLij.,KMxns.kugxuslCIUJnh,nss.LIcj;c\";}', '2019-02-12 10:59:54'),
(114, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:2:\"DR\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"TEST\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"798545120026\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"sxVSxkgkvksjhxvUYhxbljhzb>IAj&#039;poK\r\n[;\r\n][p=-AIX9AIXHJKZN \";}', '2019-02-12 11:01:00'),
(115, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Abhijeet\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Naik\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"abhijeet.naik1278@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919819107520\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:202:\"Hi. I am an individual investor. I would like to get more information about the Consistent Compounders portfolio along with the terms and conditions and fee structure of the same. Thanks, Abhijeet Naik.\";}', '2019-02-12 12:11:21'),
(116, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Srikanth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"PK\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"srikanth.13.1@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09945027270\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:46:\"Looking at a coffee can kind of a Pms service \";}', '2019-02-13 07:22:39'),
(117, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Karan \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Barmecha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"karan@pinkbullinvestors.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8971236363\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:68:\"Please share details for a PMS tie-up across Bangalore&#047; Kolkata\";}', '2019-02-13 09:18:05'),
(118, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Shobit \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Mittal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"shobitest@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"76203355210\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"hdbckjdhbcdsjhb cdkd jhbjh bhbjzhdbcjhdbljhxb\";}', '2019-02-13 15:33:12'),
(119, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Shobit \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mittal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"shobittest@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7845154500\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"hgvcgdvckDVCKGDKVcgkdv gdv\";}', '2019-02-13 15:34:10'),
(120, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"TEST\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"TEST\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:13:\"test@test.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7456482120\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:21:\"WELCOME TO THE WORLD \";}', '2019-02-15 07:10:19'),
(121, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"TEST\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"OAK\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:13:\"test@test.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7845125135\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"f afygeuyfg  yhlhc hjegfyGYGF LLEHHFLE GFUYegluy gffhebflhwb\";}', '2019-02-15 07:11:50'),
(122, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Shatul\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"shatul@growingsolutions.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9987759901\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:198:\"Hi I&#039;d like to know if i can associate my self with your organisation as a distributor for my clients needs. i operate out of south mumbai, just  off the eastern freeway, towards south mumbai. \";}', '2019-02-15 07:40:33'),
(123, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Ganapathy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Subramaniam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"gsfromstar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919821058059\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-15 13:38:01'),
(124, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Roshan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"L\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"roshanonline@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09632027594\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-16 05:01:34'),
(125, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Roshan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"L\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"roshanonline@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09632027594\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-16 05:01:36'),
(126, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Reena\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"gupta.reena@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-16 05:55:25'),
(127, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:38:\"Money Honey Financial Services Pvt Ltd\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Anup Bhaiya\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"anup@moneyhoney.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7738032704\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:290:\"Happy to be associate with you. We are financial intermediary company. Largely into retail and HNI segment. Our core products are MF, Fixed Deposit, Debenture, GoI Bonds, etc.. We are servicing more than 70,000 investors, majority are in Mumbai. Anup Bhaiya is the promoter of the company. \";}', '2019-02-16 06:11:17'),
(128, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Raghuraj \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Thirani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"raghurajt@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:101:\"I would be interested in your Investment Advisory &#047; PMS. Kindly share details of your services. \";}', '2019-02-16 06:19:20'),
(129, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Shobhit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"gupta.shobhit@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9988821344\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:22:\"Interested in your pms\";}', '2019-02-16 09:08:05'),
(130, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Bhavesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"jksimco@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9825128832\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:42:\"Would like to know your offerings with t&c\";}', '2019-02-16 11:24:47'),
(131, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Dinesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Sharma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"onlinedinesh@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9343516980\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Interested in your PMS product. Please share more details about the same.\";}', '2019-02-16 16:13:59'),
(132, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"RAJESHANAND\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:14:\"VENGATESVARLOU\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"rajeshninni@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"0096560996618\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:86:\"Sir,\r\nPlease let me know you are accepting Rs.25 lakhs for PMS.I am a NRI from Kuwait.\";}', '2019-02-16 17:12:07'),
(133, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Divakar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"divakar60@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09845725141\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:48:\"Would like to understand the services you offer.\";}', '2019-02-16 17:19:42'),
(134, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ganesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Walvekar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sk305014907@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7387600456\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Wanted to understand pms product , as interested in availing pms service \";}', '2019-02-16 17:20:23'),
(135, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ganesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Walvekar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sk305014907@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7387600456\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Wanted to understand pms product , as interested in availing pms service \";}', '2019-02-16 17:20:24'),
(136, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sameer\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bansal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sameerbansal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9811807287\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:121:\"Congrats on starting Marcellus. Could you pls share whether PMS is a product you offer and if yes, the Ts & Cs. Thank you\";}', '2019-02-17 03:57:29'),
(137, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sahil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"sahil_chandra@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810061373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:72:\"Interested in your pms . Based in delhi .which bank is distributing it ?\";}', '2019-02-17 06:31:14'),
(138, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Jabez\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Clarke\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"jabez.clarke@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:63:\"Interested to find out about your offerings for value investors\";}', '2019-02-17 17:42:30'),
(139, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Keith\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mulye\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"keithmulye@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930865956\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"Hi, I&#039;m interested in knowing about your new PMS. Could you share the details on email?\";}', '2019-02-17 19:24:03'),
(140, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Dhiren\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Patel\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"dhiren1@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"19084258463\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:116:\"Hi: I am based out of New Jersey. Saw your note on consistent compounders and was curious about the process. Thanks!\";}', '2019-02-17 21:30:24'),
(141, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Anupam\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Pareek\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"anupampareek@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820293634\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"I would like to know more about your pms. Pls contact me\";}', '2019-02-18 03:03:07');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(142, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Badri\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Narayanan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"badribc@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9952089611\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:19:\"PMS Details please.\";}', '2019-02-18 03:43:14'),
(143, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Devansh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:13:\"Parasrampuria\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"devansh.puria@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820772627\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Would like to know if your PMS has launched and it&#039;s details\";}', '2019-02-18 04:07:11'),
(144, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"RASHMIN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"VYAWAHARE\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"rashmin.vyawahare@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7021316346\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:195:\"Hi \r\nI am interested in investing in the PMS Fund run by Marcellus. Can someone from your team reach out to me & let me know what is the minimum ticket size of investment. \r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nRashmin\r\n\";}', '2019-02-18 05:35:25'),
(145, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sandeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Balani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sandeepbalanii@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919820065477\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:41:\"Would be interested in investing in a PMS\";}', '2019-02-18 10:35:16'),
(146, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ketan \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Sanghvi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"ketan.p.sanghvi@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8433950808\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\"I would be keen to know more about the PMS offering. Thanks. \";}', '2019-02-18 11:03:38'),
(147, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"AMOL\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"THAKUR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"amolthak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09819605331\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:162:\"I am interested to know about the products that are offered by Marcellus.\r\nCan you send me a summary of the services offered by you and then we can talk about it.\";}', '2019-02-18 11:23:07'),
(148, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"nitin \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"gandhi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"nitingandhi31@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930063804\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:24:\"looking at small cap pms\";}', '2019-02-18 16:29:05'),
(149, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Deepak\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Darisi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"deepakdarisi@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:687:\"The blog on &quot;Nifty vs. S&P&quot; was an eye-opener.\r\nJust a couple of things I wanted to point out:\r\na) EPS growth of S&P 500 would be inflated due to the trillions of buybacks that have been occurring since the GFC. A better comparison would be PAT growth of Nifty vs. PAT growth of S&P 500.\r\nb) while capital-heavy sectors as a portion of Indian economy was mentioned in GDP terms, these same sectors should be compared with respect to their market cap in the Nifty (rather than no. of such companies, 32&#047;50).\r\n\r\nAlso, by investing in say, the US market, the Indian investor can also gain via INR depreciation against the USD, in addition to the underlying stock performance.\";}', '2019-02-18 17:39:41'),
(150, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Anurag\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Kothari\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"anurag.kothari@sbigeneral.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833089785\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:71:\"Please subscribe to your newsletter or any article posted by your team.\";}', '2019-02-19 07:33:46'),
(151, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Nipun\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bhatia\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"nipunbhatia@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9205050826\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:239:\"Hey,\r\nI am looking to work with an investment advisor to build a portfolio. Do you guys have any products in that space and do you work with individual investors.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.linkedin.com&#047;in&#047;nipunbhatia&#047;\";}', '2019-02-19 09:09:00'),
(152, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Eeshwar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"Y\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"eeshwar.cse@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9951990634\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:50:\"Is your PMS launched? May I know details about it.\";}', '2019-02-20 02:01:11'),
(153, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"sumeet\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"madan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sumit_555@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833660808\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Pls let me know when the PMS operations start\";}', '2019-02-20 07:04:44'),
(154, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"AMOL\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"THAKUR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"amolthak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09819605331\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:145:\"Hello,\r\nCan we talk about the products offered by your firm.\r\nYou can send me an email or call me on my mobile to talk about it\r\nThanks\r\nAmol\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-02-20 08:43:20'),
(155, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Satendra\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Malhotra\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"sn_malhotra@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:564:\"Hv read Saurabh Mukherjea’s book Cofee Can Investing. Great idea! Unfortunately am finding it quite difficult to implement in practice primarily because of not being able to get that list of cos which satisfy the three basic conditions. Even screener.in which is very comprehensive is not able to provide this list to my satisfaction as their list changes every day! Would it be possible for Saurabh to guide me to this cofee can list as of 31&#047;12&#047;2018 so that so can use it for validating my investments. Thank you very much Saurabh for your help.₹\r\n\";}', '2019-02-20 11:30:36'),
(156, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Jimit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Majithia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"jimit@fundwise.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920952025\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:481:\"We are a wealth management Company providing Investment solutions to HNI&#039;s and UHNI&#039;S.  We have a sizeable AUM in PMS, AIF, Mutual Funds and Structured Products. We would like to look at your firm and see if synergies can work out to market your funds to our clients. For us the fIrms Investment Philosophy should match with clients thoughts and goals of Investing.  That&#039;s where we looking at Surgeries.  Do let me know how to go ahead with the process.. \r\nRegards \";}', '2019-02-23 04:34:52'),
(157, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Rahul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dhoot\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"rrd6f4@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9096322234\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Want to know moree about PMS..\";}', '2019-02-23 07:19:24'),
(158, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Rajani Kanth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"KV\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"kvrajanikanth@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9594844108\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:91:\"What is the minimum amount required for your PMS scheme, time horizon and expected returns?\";}', '2019-02-23 14:33:02'),
(159, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:13:\"Balasubramani\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Velayutham\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"v1bala@yahoo.co.uk\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9620632373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in investing in your PMS offering. Kindly share the details for the same. \";}', '2019-02-25 04:24:47'),
(160, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Cloudroute\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Test\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"51919194898\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"Testing Ignore\";}', '2019-02-25 09:54:36'),
(161, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Cloudroute\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"Testing@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"Ignore Testing\";}', '2019-02-25 10:00:00'),
(162, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Cloudroute\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"Ignore Testing\";}', '2019-02-25 10:02:34'),
(163, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Cloudroute\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 10:04:58'),
(164, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Test\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:13:\"Ignore Tested\";}', '2019-02-25 10:06:26'),
(165, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 10:09:14'),
(166, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"TEst\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 10:14:23'),
(167, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 10:17:42'),
(168, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Pratik\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:15:\"Bagadia Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"pratik@cloudroute.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9898989898\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Testing lead source from form, please ignore.\";}', '2019-02-25 10:22:02'),
(169, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Pratik \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:15:\"Bagadia Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"784512451200\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"Ignore Plz \";}', '2019-02-25 10:25:30'),
(170, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Tested\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Tested\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"Tested@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7994548420\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:13:\"Ignore Tested\";}', '2019-02-25 10:26:37'),
(171, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Testing\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"Test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 10:36:48'),
(172, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Jigar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Test\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:15:\"Jigar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:15:\"Ignore This Acc\";}', '2019-02-25 11:53:46'),
(173, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"FName2502\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"LName2502\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"test2502@example.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"testing record\";}', '2019-02-25 13:33:44'),
(174, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"FName 25022\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"LName25022\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"test25022@example.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-02-25 13:34:14'),
(175, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Cloudroute\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:15:\"Ignore This msg\";}', '2019-02-26 06:45:31'),
(176, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Mrityunjoy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Guha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"mrg.guha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9821856048\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"I am interested in Consistent Compounders Portfolio.\";}', '2019-03-02 10:35:32'),
(177, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vinay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:13:\"Somani Mumbai\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"vinay@findstone.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820029884\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:100:\"I am an HNI. Pl put me on your mailing list. And pl have someone contact me any Tue-Fri 2-5 pm. Thx \";}', '2019-03-02 16:48:57'),
(178, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vinay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:13:\"Somani Mumbai\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"vinay@findstone.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820029884\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:100:\"I am an HNI. Pl put me on your mailing list. And pl have someone contact me any Tue-Fri 2-5 pm. Thx \";}', '2019-03-02 16:48:58'),
(179, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Prem\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"prem1970@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9840887377\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"Interested in your PMS. Please let me know the details\";}', '2019-03-02 18:05:13'),
(180, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Prem\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"prem1970@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9840887377\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"Interested in your PMS. Please let me know the details\";}', '2019-03-02 18:05:15'),
(181, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Shivakumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Govindraju\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"shiv.gov@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9663075203\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:91:\"I would like to know more about your product offerings (PMS&#047;AIF&#047;others). thankyou\";}', '2019-03-03 05:44:04'),
(182, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Naresh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Pishaordy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"cpnaresh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845117404\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"I am an IFA and interested in referring clients for the PMS, please revert with details\";}', '2019-03-03 06:23:28'),
(183, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Piyush\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Potdukhe\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"piyush.potdukhe@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8880779414\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-03 08:06:35'),
(184, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"RoY\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"D\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"aquaero@asia.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9035000355\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-03 15:21:32'),
(185, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Sudhanshu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Dhingra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"dhingra.sudhanshu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919878623941\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:70:\"Hi,\r\nKindly send me the details of the newly launched PMS.\r\n\r\nRegards.\";}', '2019-03-03 17:09:11'),
(186, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Shubhendra \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Panse\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"sppanse@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7507775255\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:81:\"I would like to invest in your PMS. Please contact me and let me further details.\";}', '2019-03-04 05:30:34'),
(187, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Shubhendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Panse\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"sppanse@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7507775255\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:71:\"I would like to invest in your PMS. Please let me know further details.\";}', '2019-03-04 05:31:35'),
(188, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Sahil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Nandu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"sahil@adelmo.co\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920077407\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:99:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nI would like to know more about your investment strategies and products; please let me know.\";}', '2019-03-04 07:27:33'),
(189, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sourav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Misra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sourav.blues@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8959595453\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:169:\"I want to invest in Marcellus Portfolio Management Services. Kindly communicate me the necessary details regarding the same.\r\n\r\nLooking forward to hear ASAP.\r\n\r\nRegards.\";}', '2019-03-04 14:42:07'),
(190, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Rahul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"rahulmehta1234@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919820314220\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-04 15:01:33'),
(191, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Test\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"test@gmaul.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"548614651614\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:16:\"Test ignore this\";}', '2019-03-05 07:17:33'),
(192, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Venkat\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Kannikanti\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"venkat.kannikanti@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9912892709\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:101:\"I am an IFA from hyderabad want to empanel with Marcellus to sell PMS products. Send me full details.\";}', '2019-03-05 23:39:52'),
(193, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Shubhendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Panse\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"sppanse@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7507775255\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:82:\"I would like to invest in your PMS. Please guide me how can I get started on this.\";}', '2019-03-06 11:08:15'),
(194, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Bhupendra\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Ketkar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"bhupendraketkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9822870092\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"Interested in distributing your pms products to our clients \";}', '2019-03-06 17:17:22'),
(195, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Vamsee Mohan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Kamabathula\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"vamsee.mohan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9652521117\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:258:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nYesterday (6-March-2019) I attended a session by Saurabh Mukherjea in Hyderabad. I came to know about your PMS during the session and would like to explore investing in your PMS. Where can I find more information about your PMS?\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nVamsee\";}', '2019-03-07 04:03:15'),
(196, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"vibhuti\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"vibhutirshah@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:71:\"Please send me details of your PMS services for an individual investor.\";}', '2019-03-07 05:11:02'),
(197, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Balvir\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"chawla\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"balvir@finnovators.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9822431113\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Would like to know more about your products and distribution pls contact \";}', '2019-03-07 07:08:05'),
(198, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Balvir\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Chawla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"balvirchawla@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9822431113\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-07 07:09:17'),
(199, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Paresh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Lakhani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"paresh.lakhani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8080805480\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-07 19:04:34'),
(200, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"SUNIL\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"PRABHU\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"sunil.prabhu64@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820152415\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:115:\"Would like to register with you as a distributor.  my arn code is 131637.  A chartered accountant by qualification.\";}', '2019-03-08 04:21:48'),
(201, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"chirag\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"agrawal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"acficare@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09909500180\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:19:\"hi i need to invest\";}', '2019-03-08 09:32:19'),
(202, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:13:\"Senthil Kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"D\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"senthil.it2005@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919962202303\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"Would like to know more about your PMS \";}', '2019-03-08 10:33:43'),
(203, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Shibashish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:13:\"Bhattacharjee\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"shibuneuro@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8238086689\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I am interested in your PMS offering and have a long term horizon\";}', '2019-03-08 10:59:06'),
(204, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Mohit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"mkbansal0001@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9478165660\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-10 07:34:10'),
(205, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rajesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Kakariya\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"rajeshkakariya@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09223372764\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"PMS enquiry\";}', '2019-03-10 08:58:16'),
(206, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"chetan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"patil\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"chetan3571@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9011098212\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:102:\"I just want to know the minimum amount required to invest through PMS. and investment options you give\";}', '2019-03-11 10:31:41'),
(207, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Eshit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Sheth\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"eshit87@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820631670\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:128:\"Hi, can you send me a brochure for your PMS. I would like to know about the fees, minimum ticket size, investment strategy,etc. \";}', '2019-03-11 11:23:04'),
(208, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Shekhar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Ramnathan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"shekharramnathan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971567946233\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:133:\"Hey , I am a retail investor, please can you tell me what is the minimum amount to invest and the fee structure.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nShekhar\";}', '2019-03-11 12:03:19'),
(209, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Shangloo\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"aditya.shangloo@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9717452817\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-11 19:08:46'),
(210, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Utkarsh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Vartak\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"uvartak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+61430476590\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:358:\"Hello,\r\nI am Utkarsh from Melbourne & i have few businesses about turnover of $10 Mil. I am looking to do investments into Listed space in NSE&#047;BSE through a money Manager&#047;PMS who has a proven track record over past 10 Years in the industry. Please Contact me on Whatsapp before calling.I will be visiting Mumbai in 2nd weeks of April.\r\nRegards.\r\nUv\";}', '2019-03-13 23:41:18'),
(211, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Shuvra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Poddar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"shuv.poddar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8805011945\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:80:\"I am looking for PMS similar to Coffee can PMS offered by the same team in Ambit\";}', '2019-03-14 12:36:13'),
(212, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Amardeep\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Chadha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"amardeep@alphaadvisors.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810229422\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:137:\"We&#039;re a SEBI Registered Investment Advisor based out of New Delhi. Looking out to partner with PMS with a longer investment horizon.\";}', '2019-03-14 17:54:41'),
(213, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Ruma\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Bhattacharya\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"ruma@opulenceadvisory.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9825034296\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:159:\"would be interested in knowing more on CC PMS and also allocating to my clients portfolio. I am based out of Baroda and cater to UHNI clients. \r\nRegards,\r\nRuma\";}', '2019-03-15 12:40:27'),
(214, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ansh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bindal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"ansh.bindal1996@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919168995118\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:58:\"Hi, I am interested in the PMS. \r\nPlease provide details. \";}', '2019-03-16 06:09:04'),
(215, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Anand\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Goyal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"anandgoyalap@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7682910999\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:12:\"Pms \r\nCal me\";}', '2019-03-17 03:20:53'),
(216, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:15:\"Chandrashekara \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Madhava\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"chandrashekara789@yahoo.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9480331023\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:43:\"Willing to invest in your PMS.   What next?\";}', '2019-03-19 03:43:30'),
(217, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Divakar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"divakar60@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09845725141\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:44:\"Would like to know more about PMS services..\";}', '2019-03-19 05:56:52'),
(218, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Trish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Goff\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"trish@centtip.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"089 24 56 81\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:351:\"Invite You to Review Our Product\r\n\r\nHi,\r\n \r\nMy name is Trish from the American Beauty Association.\r\n\r\nI’m reaching out to you because we are looking for beauty enthusiasts like you to test product. Would you be willing to test the Mieoko Flat Top Brush?\r\n\r\nYou can visit www.centtip.xyz  if you are interested.\r\n\r\nThanks for your time,\r\n\r\nTrish\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-03-20 00:42:57'),
(219, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Nitin\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Mohite\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"nitinmmohite@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9822356169\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:47:\"Would like to know in detail regarding your PMS\";}', '2019-03-20 05:31:51'),
(220, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sanjay\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Madan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:28:\"investorfromcanada@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"16478558703\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:333:\"Hello\r\n\r\nI am interested in your PMS services. A few question:\r\n1. What is the minimum investment size?\r\n2. What are the advisory services charges and other charges?\r\n3. Do I need to open a new brokerage&#047;demat account or can you work with my existing accounts?\r\n4. I can invest through PIS or pvt ltd? Any limitations?\r\n\r\nThanks\";}', '2019-03-20 19:56:27'),
(221, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Kala\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"prashantkala@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9886643634\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"want to know more about PMS & other investment options\";}', '2019-03-21 10:02:17'),
(222, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:98:\"#file_links[&quot;C:&#092;&#092;AllPrograms&#092;&#092;!Synonims&#092;&#092;titles.txt&quot;,1,LS]\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:98:\"#file_links[&quot;C:&#092;&#092;AllPrograms&#092;&#092;!Synonims&#092;&#092;titles.txt&quot;,1,LS]\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"zzzzzzzzzs@i.ua\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"85222359642\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:206:\"We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your site provided us with valuable info to work on. You have done a formidable job and our whole community will be thankful to you. \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-03-22 01:38:29'),
(223, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Jayanth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Kalyan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"jayanth.kalyan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9448937107\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:115:\"Hi, \r\n\r\nI&#039;m in Bangalore and interested in your PMS. Please provide me details of the same.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nJayanth\";}', '2019-03-22 02:25:04'),
(224, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Rajesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Jaisinghani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"rjaisinghani@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820235427\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:103:\"I am evaluating various PMS&#047; investment opportunities for larger investment. Please get in touch. \";}', '2019-03-22 15:33:52'),
(225, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Milin\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Thakkar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"milinthakkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"+46707768004\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-22 18:00:20'),
(226, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Milin\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Thakkar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"milinthakkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+46707768004\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:21:\"NRI interested in PMS\";}', '2019-03-22 18:00:52'),
(227, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Omprakash\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Chhabra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"omichhabra2000@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919341217163\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:83:\"Kindly ask your associate to get in touch for a in depth discussion and investment.\";}', '2019-03-23 04:45:13'),
(228, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:15:\"Venkateswar Rao\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Kannikanti\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"venkat.kannikanti@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9912892709\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"I am interested to distribute PMS products and want to empanel with marcellus. Send me documents.\";}', '2019-03-23 12:18:59'),
(229, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Abhaya\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Vishwanath\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"Abhaya_cs@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9945244268\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-24 06:50:50'),
(230, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sridhar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Nagarajan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sridhar.naga@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971502550291\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"Hi, I would like to know more about your PMS, scheme philosophy, investment amount, etc\";}', '2019-03-24 07:04:19'),
(231, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Pramod\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Paranjape\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"pramodparanjape@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:130:\"Hello, I am interested in your PMS product. Please contact me by e-mail. We can talk on phone later.\r\n\r\nThanks, \r\nPramod Paranjape\";}', '2019-03-24 12:24:52'),
(232, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ganesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Patil\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"grpatil26@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:236:\"I would like to invest in equities and would like to know about your product offerings. I&#039;m out of India and would like to have details by mail. I&#039;m presently invested in direct equities and MFs with more than 50 lacs rupees. \";}', '2019-03-24 15:22:43'),
(233, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"GAGANDEEP\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"NARANG\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"gagandeepnarang@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+918600144602\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:90:\"Hi There, i am looking at investing in PMS, will like to speak to someone for more details\";}', '2019-03-24 20:43:35'),
(234, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"ASHIT\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"SHROFF\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"ashroff17@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8850114676\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Please contact me. I am interested to open an account with you.\r\n\";}', '2019-03-25 02:36:09'),
(235, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ajay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"S\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ajsharma2529@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9866243862\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:53:\"Could I see the PMS&#039; prospectus&#047;pitch deck?\";}', '2019-03-25 05:09:21'),
(236, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Munish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bansal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"GC9899@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09873778077\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:86:\"I want to invest in equities through your PMS. I am interested in variable fee model. \";}', '2019-03-25 07:00:50'),
(237, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:14:\"DR VENKATESHAN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"ANNIYAPPA\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"drvenk.mg@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919845286466\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:71:\"I would like to receive your blogs to my inbox whoever it is published \";}', '2019-03-25 08:13:03'),
(238, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ashish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mishra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"ashish.mishra14@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+447767453339\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:265:\"Hi - I am interested in your PMS services. I am an NRI customer currently in London but based out of Dubai. If you are going to call me before 2nd of April, please call on the UK number else I will be available on my Dubai number (+971501534300) after 2nd of April.\";}', '2019-03-25 10:09:07'),
(239, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Dharmendra\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Jariwala\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"ramshawealth@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9909912442\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:125:\"I am all ready have more than 10 Cr. of my client Investment in NJ PMS. But not happy. Looking for change. How cam you help ?\";}', '2019-03-25 10:16:15'),
(240, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Praveen\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"praveen.pk78@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833138037\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:47:\"Want to understand the offering on PMS services\";}', '2019-03-26 16:02:44'),
(241, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Kannappan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Kishore\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"kgfyash06@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9047374581\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-03-26 16:18:10'),
(242, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Karan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Sabharwal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sabharwalkaran@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971561669850\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"Hi - can you send me more details on the PMS product\";}', '2019-03-27 06:50:34'),
(243, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"ANTHONY\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"O&#039;BRIEN\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"obrienanthony@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920077130\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"I would like to understand the product \";}', '2019-03-27 06:59:15'),
(244, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Kishore\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"sanjaykish@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919173111040\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:154:\"I want to know the details and formalities for investment in your fund. This is for resident investor. Would also like to know about any scheme for NRIs. \";}', '2019-03-28 03:04:37'),
(245, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Gnana sekar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Devarajulu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"gstm2005@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9840822211\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:180:\"Hi This Gnana sekar one of my client  looking good fund manager , I mention Ur name to my client ,he is interested going with Ur pms ,So I like to became a channel partner with you\";}', '2019-03-28 04:17:34'),
(246, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Gnana sekar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Devarajulu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"gstm2005@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9840822211\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:2:\"Hi\";}', '2019-03-28 06:54:01'),
(247, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Venkataraman\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"KR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"krvenk@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9840293373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:361:\"Hi, \r\nBeen following Saurabh for quite some time now. \r\nHave already read through 2 of his books. Will be completing his third shortly. \r\nHad an opportunity to look at the &quot;Consistent Compounders&quot; PMS brochure. \r\nWould like to connect and understand more in detail about the same. \r\nLet me know how to proceed. Thanks a ton. \r\nWarm Regards, \r\nVenkat. \";}', '2019-03-28 08:57:38'),
(248, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vijay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"NC\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"nallanvijay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920068183\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:58:\"Am interested. Pl meet once for a discussion and closure. \";}', '2019-03-28 11:14:53'),
(249, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Navalpakkam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:31:\"krishna.navalpakkam@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9980600858\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:79:\"I am evaluating options to invest in a PMS.  Please get in touch. Best, Krishna\";}', '2019-03-28 15:58:29'),
(250, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vikas\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Jaitly\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"vikasjaitly@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9980066123\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Wanted to learn more about the PMS service provided by your firm and how do I get started with it\";}', '2019-03-29 08:09:30'),
(251, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Kamala\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Routray\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"lehigh2005@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1456:\"This message is for Saurabh Mukherjea regarding his recent article in Economictimes titled &quot;For 99% of Indian stocks, value investing only route to decent returns&quot;. I really liked this article that classifies companies in to A, B and C- categories based on their growth rate. He uses the P&#047;E expansion in such a way that simplies the return. For example, in the following paragraph, he beautifully mentioned how C-type companies lead to return by attributing the P&#047;E in to earning growth, mulitplication increase, and dividend yield.\r\n\r\n&quot;With a Type C firm, if our fund manager is able to get the timing of his entry and exit right, the results are spectacular: 25% earnings growth + 7% from doubling of P&#047;E + 2% from dividend yield = 34% per annum return. However, since many of these firms are trading at optically high P&#047;Es, let’s assume that their P&#047;Es halve over the next decade. Even then these the Type C firms produce a return of 20% [25% earnings growth – 7% for P&#047;E halving + 2% dividend yield].&quot;\r\n\r\nI&#039;m a new investor and though have heard many time the P&#047;E expansion, but do not understand how its calculated or arrived it. I would really appreciate if he could guide me to books that fundamentally explains this concept of P&#047;E expansion. I am sure he can do so because he is one of the person who simplifies knowledge in easy term.\r\n\r\nThanks you.\r\nBest regards,\r\nKamalakanta\";}', '2019-03-29 17:00:06'),
(252, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Tony\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Coombes\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"tony.coombes85@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"020 7998 1388\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:750:\"Good Morning\r\n\r\nI hope you are well.\r\n\r\nI would like to contribute to your blog one of the articles I have written on blockchain-based gun control.\r\n\r\nI have saved the article on my google drive which you can find here:\r\n\r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;drive.google.com&#047;drive&#047;folders&#047;12vxe0Uo7O1Qzon2Yuj0AhGI3dxJaONIo?usp=sharing\r\n\r\nI am sorry but I did not have any time to find any royalty free images so it would be fab if you could add some.\r\n\r\nI will try to write up a few more articles on my gun collection as and when I get some free time!\r\n\r\nI hope your readers enjoy reading my article. It would be great if you could send me a link once you have had a chance to put it up so that I could show it off to my friends haha!\r\n\r\nCheers\r\n\r\nTony\";}', '2019-03-29 21:26:32'),
(253, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Jignesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Sutariya \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"Jignesh.B.Sutariya@ril.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9998215737\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I am an investor and want to understand more about PMS offering. \";}', '2019-03-30 10:04:02'),
(254, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Jignesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Sutariya \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"Jignesh.B.Sutariya@ril.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9998215737\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I am an investor and want to understand more about PMS offering. \";}', '2019-03-30 10:04:03'),
(255, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"vikas\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"jaitly\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"vikasjaitly@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919980066123\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:195:\"Hi, I am trying to reach you through this form , to understand more about your PM product. Is there any email ID that I can send an email to as this does not seem to get a response form your end.\";}', '2019-03-30 15:38:10'),
(256, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"UNNIKRISHNAN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"NAIR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"unnis.s@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+97477279543\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:262:\"Hi\r\nI&#039;m living in Doha. I have a portfolio of INR 3.00 Mio+ which is (mis) managed by me . The portfolio is currently with Axis Direct . I have a NRI PIS account + trading account with them . Need ur support to streamline the portfolio and manage it better \";}', '2019-03-30 16:58:25'),
(257, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Uttam \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:16:\"Datta Chaudhuri \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"udattachaudhuri@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8910603388\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:101:\"I want to invest in PMS in your recommended stock by paying one time fee or as per your company norms\";}', '2019-03-30 17:10:29'),
(258, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rakesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Seth\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"rseth101@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9896096296\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"Interested in Consistent Compounders PMS. Minimum Investment and Fee structure detsils.\";}', '2019-03-31 04:48:24'),
(259, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Gajanan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Dusane\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"grdusane@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9373725953\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:70:\"Hello Sir, \r\n\r\nInterested in distributorship. \r\nthanks\r\nGajanan Dusane\";}', '2019-03-31 08:37:31'),
(260, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Snehasis\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Ghosh\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"snehasisghosh786@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920982573\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:24:\"Interested in investment\";}', '2019-03-31 08:39:00'),
(261, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Snehasis\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Ghosh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"snehasisghosh786@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920982573\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:51:\"Interested in investment towards long term prospect\";}', '2019-03-31 08:39:55'),
(262, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Snehasis\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Ghosh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"snehasisghosh786@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9136082573\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:27:\"Interested in your products\";}', '2019-03-31 08:42:52'),
(263, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Somnath\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Bhagavatula\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"bvsomnath@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9008030811\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:155:\"Hi, \r\n\r\nI am interested in your product (The Consistent Compounders PMS). Can you please give me a call&#047; drop me a message. \r\n\r\nThanks,\r\n\r\nSomnnath\r\n \";}', '2019-03-31 17:34:44'),
(264, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Suresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Reddy\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sureshgreddy@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9701361699\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:292:\"I have seen Mr Saurab Mukherjea&#039;s recent article and came to know that you are offering PMS service with a ticket size of 25 Lakhs. Please let me know further details about the procedure and on boarding etc. I am thinking of subscribing to your service.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nG. Suresh Reddy, ITS\";}', '2019-04-01 06:29:09'),
(265, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sumeet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Mohanty\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"sumeet.mohanty09@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:435:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nCongratulations on the launch of your new PMS.\r\nI went over the fee structure on your page and was curious to understand how the fees applies in the three cases.\r\n\r\nWould it be possible for you to illustrate it with an example ? Maybe on an investment of 25L, how would each of the three fee cases look like ? (considering a return of 18%-20% return maybe ?  or whatever number you deem correct)\r\n\r\nThanks in advance,\r\nSumeet\";}', '2019-04-01 16:02:11'),
(266, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Paridhi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Agarwal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"aparidhi8@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833542414\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-04-02 05:47:01'),
(267, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"pranshu\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"suman\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"pranshusuman@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8939041604\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:81:\"hello\r\nI am an IFA. Want to sell your products . Need some information.\r\n\r\nThanks\";}', '2019-04-02 06:33:11'),
(268, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Kevinbusia\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"KevinbusiaDL\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"frame53166@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"86175824214\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:221:\"Hi there, \r\n \r\nThat&#039;s quite an stunning site I&#039;ve got into, while was surfing a web. Not much, just some [url=http:&#047;&#047;www.besthomemadepornsites.com&#047;]amature porn tubes[&#047;url]  here :) \r\n \r\nBye!\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-02 10:26:17'),
(269, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vivek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Joseph\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"vivek.nicholas@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+91 9632017590\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"I am a retail investor and I am interested in PMS and investment services\";}', '2019-04-03 05:50:30'),
(270, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Mukesh \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Jindal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"mukesh@alphacapital.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+919891857434\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:206:\"Dear Saurabh & Team\r\nThis is Mukesh Jindal for Alpha Capital. We are interested to take your product to our clients. Would like to meet you for same. Please let me know convenient time.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\n\r\nMukesh\";}', '2019-04-04 04:11:13');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
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178450 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--3ds443g 44019 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--55qx5d 47456 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--6qq986b3xl 18188 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--czr694b 21109 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--czru2d 9020 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--fiq228c5hs 12145 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--io0a7i 30199 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--j6w193g 31764 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--kput3i 31856 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--mgbaam7a8h 2038 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--mgberp4a5d4ar 2534 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--mk1bu44c 6001 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--rhqv96g 7723 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--ses554g 198539 websites – $80 \r\n.xn--tckwe 6197 websites – $50 \r\n.xn--vuq861b 19706 websites – $50 \r\n.xxx 119879 websites- $50 \r\n.xyz 1888763 websites – $150 \r\n.yachts 154 websites – $50 \r\n.yoga 7963 websites – $50 \r\n.yokohama 8140 websites – $50 \r\n.yt 2004 websites – $50 \r\n.za 837189 websites South Africa – $100 \r\n.zm 224 websites – $50 \r\n.zone 25798 websites – $50 \r\n.бг (.xn--90ae) 2470 websites – $50 \r\n.дети 169 websites – $50 \r\n.москва (.xn--80adxhks) 19582 websites Moscow – $50 \r\n.онлайн 3403 websites – $50 \r\n.орг 1160 websites – $50 \r\n.рус (.xn--p1acf) 110789 websites – $50 \r\n.рф (.xn--p1ai) 869759 websites Russia – $80 \r\n.сайт 1146 websites – $50 \r\n.укр (.xn--j1amh) 10563 websites- $50 \r\n.संगठन 105  sites – $50 \r\n>.みんな 166  sites – $50 \r\n.コム    6532  sites – $50 \r\n.世界    4171  sites – $50 \r\n.公司    46161  sites – $50 \r\n.商城    6 907  sites – $50 \r\n.商标    9865  sites – $50 \r\n.我爱你 15465  sites – $50 \r\n.手机    31543  sites – $50 \r\n.机构    243  sites – $50 \r\n.游戏    187  sites – $50 \r\n.移动    3277  sites – $50 \r\n.网店    3711  sites – $50 \r\n.网络    30808  sites – $50 \r\n.닷컴    5937  sites – $50 \r\n.بازار  sites 648 – $50 \r\n.شبكة   sites 833 – $50 \r\n.موقع   sites 478 – $50\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-05 03:03:08'),
(272, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"sajal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"grover\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sajalgrover@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:9:\"992396588\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:47:\"wish to make a long term portfolio -pls contact\";}', '2019-04-05 15:31:58'),
(273, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Rajagopalan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Santhanam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"raar1102@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919867757258\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Please call me only on weekends\";}', '2019-04-06 04:55:15'),
(274, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Rajagopalan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Santhanam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"raar1102@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919867757258\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Please call me only on weekends\";}', '2019-04-06 04:56:01'),
(275, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Jitender\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Saraha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"mittal.pk1@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9717458282\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"we wish to join the PMS scheme of yours\";}', '2019-04-06 04:56:39'),
(276, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Charlesunums\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Charlesunums\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"charlesGautt@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"376575114\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1283:\"We offer you the opportunity to advertise your products and services. \r\nGood day! Look at an important offer for you. I can help you with sending  your commercial offers or messages through feedback forms. The advantage of this method is that the messages sent through the feedback forms are included in the white list. This method increases the chance that your message will be read. The same way as you received this message. \r\n \r\nSending via Feedback Forms to any domain zones of the world. (more than 1000 domain zones.). \r\n \r\nThe cost of sending 1 million messages is $ 49 instead of $ 99. \r\nAll us sites that have a feedback form. (10 million messages sent) - $349 instead of $649 \r\nDomain zone .com - (12 million messages sent) - $399 instead of $699 \r\nAll domain zones in Europe- (8 million messages sent) - $ 299 instead of $599 \r\nAll sites in the world (25 million messages sent) - $499 instead of $999 \r\n \r\nDiscounts are valid until April 10! \r\nFeedback and warranty! \r\nDelivery report! \r\n \r\nIn the process of sending messages, we do not violate the rules of GDRP. \r\nThis message is created automatically use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype – FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - feedbackform@make-success.com \r\n \r\nBest wishes\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-06 08:05:29'),
(277, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Anil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Baheti\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"anil_baheti@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09845277577\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:131:\"As an investor, I am interested to know more about you and how you can help me with financial investment which is result oriented. \";}', '2019-04-06 14:40:58'),
(278, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"sanjay\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Marwah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"smarwah911@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"6045623852\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:127:\"I live in Vancouver ,Canada but would like to allocate some funds to the indian equity markets.Let me know about your products.\";}', '2019-04-06 22:50:03'),
(279, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sridhar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Nagarajan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sridhar.naga@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971502550291\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:79:\"Hi, I would like to know more about your pms, minimum investment, strategy, etc\";}', '2019-04-07 06:48:12'),
(280, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ajay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Seth\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"ajayseth123@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919818311010\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:113:\"I would be interested in the equity PMS and would like someone to get in touch with us\r\n\r\nThanks\r\n\r\nAjay\r\nGurgaon\";}', '2019-04-07 10:45:44'),
(281, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"PIYUSH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"VERMA\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"piyush_v123@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9822500390\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:104:\" Would like to join your PMS. Currently based in Vijayawada. Please let me know the formalities required\";}', '2019-04-07 10:45:57'),
(282, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Paras\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"paras18583@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9320120193\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:111:\"Hi\r\nI found your blogs interesting but i noticed that there is no option to subscribe to it. \r\n\r\nRegards\r\nParas\";}', '2019-04-07 12:40:47'),
(283, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Harish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bansal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"harishbansal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971504504382\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:95:\"I would like to get more details about your fund which is open for investment.\r\n\r\nRgds,\r\nHarish\";}', '2019-04-08 08:02:30'),
(284, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Sukhvinder \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sukhlubana@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"0016138833786\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:132:\"Hi do u provide pms or mutual fund or modern portfolio? What is minimum investment for nri customers and your service charges thanks\";}', '2019-04-10 05:29:40'),
(285, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Dr Bhavesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"drshahbhavesh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9825189613\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:17:\"Interested in pMs\";}', '2019-04-10 10:09:05'),
(286, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Jamesploke\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Jamesploke\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:28:\"pete-gvm-affiliate@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"264212876\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:683:\"My name is Pete and I want to share a proven system with you that makes me money while I sleep! This system allows you to TRY the whole thing for F R E E for a whole 30 days! That&#039;s right, you can finally change your future without giving up any sensitive information in advance! I signed up myself just a while ago and I&#039;m already making a nice profit. \r\n \r\nIn short, this is probably the BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO YOU IF YOU TAKE ACTION NOW!!! \r\n \r\nIf you&#039;re interested in knowing more about this system, go to http:&#047;&#047;globalviralmarketing.com&#047;?ref=qkgWOPkN5RoC1NWh and try it out. Again, it’s FREE! \r\n \r\nYou can thank me later \r\n \r\n&#047;Pete\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-10 11:53:45'),
(287, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Bhaskar \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Aglave\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"bk_aglave@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9881211884\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"What is the least amount that you accept for your pms?\";}', '2019-04-11 09:05:13'),
(288, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:98:\"#file_links[&quot;C:&#092;&#092;AllPrograms&#092;&#092;!Synonims&#092;&#092;titles.txt&quot;,1,LS]\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:98:\"#file_links[&quot;C:&#092;&#092;AllPrograms&#092;&#092;!Synonims&#092;&#092;titles.txt&quot;,1,LS]\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:14:\"aaaaaaaaq@i.ua\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"84399277824\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:222:\"Hello there, You have done a great job. I’ll certainly digg it and personally suggest to my friends [url=https:&#047;&#047;bhabhi-porn.com]indian xhamster[&#047;url]. I am sure they will be benefited from this web site. \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-11 13:10:11'),
(289, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Dr Bhavesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"drshahbhavesh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9825189613\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"I am interested in Marcellus compounder \";}', '2019-04-12 04:11:26'),
(290, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"DR MAHESH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"KHANDELWAL\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"DRMRK3007@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"98240371465\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"NEED INFORMATION ABOUT PMS\";}', '2019-04-12 07:01:36'),
(291, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:13:\"Tubepornamads\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:15:\"TubepornamadsJJ\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"aaaaaaaaq@ua.fm\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"84688515289\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:201:\"It as nearly impossible to find well-informed people about this topic [url=https:&#047;&#047;tubennporn.com]old bdsm cunt[&#047;url], however, you seem like you know what you are talking about! Thanks \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-13 06:36:00'),
(292, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Madan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Rawtani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"madanrawtani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9940009191\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:32:\"Looking to invest. Need details.\";}', '2019-04-13 07:11:01'),
(293, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"samarth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"bharat\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"bharat.samarth1@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+8618321459507\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:427:\"Hi, I am currently based out of India and scouting for a good PMS to make some investments. It would be great if you could share some details of Coffee Can Investing with me, I am keen on understanding lock-ins &#047; entry & exit loads and an approximation of annual costs over a longish period of time say 10 years.\r\n\r\nPlease feel free to reach out to me on my hand phone or leave me a number where I could call in.\r\n\r\nThanks\";}', '2019-04-15 04:33:57'),
(294, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Dr Ashutosh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"OJHA\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ashutosh8116@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919719713786\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"Want to join PMS scheme.\r\nPlease send me the details\";}', '2019-04-15 10:08:03'),
(295, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Gandhimathi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Chandran\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"arun427in@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9486672232\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:312:\"I have a DIY portfolio of worth 70 L, I am looking for a PMS to take over the portfolio to manage it in a better way. I have listened and read Mr Mukherjea&#039;s books and interview and read about his Coffee can investing style. \r\n\r\nI can understand and resonate with your investment style and rationale behind.\";}', '2019-04-16 04:28:25'),
(296, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Praveen\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Surana\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"suranapraveen@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971561162540\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"want to invest in stock market \";}', '2019-04-16 10:32:10'),
(297, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Georgededdy\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Georgededdy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"lvfeebback123@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"365541672\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:718:\"We are often up to 50%-60% less than other VoIP providers. \r\n \r\nOur VoIP pricing method is really different. \r\n \r\nWe offer free SIP&#047;VoIP trunks and just charge for minutes.  Don&#039;t worry, our service and quality is outstanding since 2009 (10 years)! \r\n \r\nTake a look at our pricing and contact us to set up your account. \r\nUsage is month to month, with no contract jail! \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;legacyvoip.com&#047;pricing-unlimited-sip-trunks-with-bundled-minutes-reduce-cost-now \r\n \r\nTry us out.  You really won’t regret it! \r\n \r\nBusiness VoIP for premises based PBXs \r\nCloud Hosted PBXs \r\nCloud Hosted Call Centers \r\n \r\nWe support all SIP-able PBXs and phones. \r\n \r\nThank you, \r\n \r\nBob Green \r\nLegacy VoIP\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-16 12:31:02'),
(298, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Atul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Tibrewala\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"atul@cartridgejunction.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820084423\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:44:\"I am interested in your PMS. Kindly contact.\";}', '2019-04-17 05:34:13'),
(299, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:15:\"Maturemilfamads\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:17:\"MaturemilfamadsWV\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"louriejamal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"84666624114\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:223:\"Your style is unique compared to other people I have read stuff from. Thank you for posting when you ave got the opportunity [url=https:&#047;&#047;moms-porns.com]click here[&#047;url], Guess I all just bookmark this blog. \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-17 11:23:04'),
(300, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:14:\"DR VENKATESHAN\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"anniyappa\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"drvenk.mg@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\")9845286466\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:119:\"I would like to know more about your PMS and other investment an the returns , what is the minimum investment required.\";}', '2019-04-17 18:31:28'),
(301, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ankit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"ankitmht@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819990489\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:127:\"I am planning to invest in your PMS product - Consistent Compounders. I wanted to meet your representative & get more details. \";}', '2019-04-18 03:55:34'),
(302, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ketan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mohile\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ketan.mohile@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9654685406\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:197:\"Hi, I wanted to understand if you are open to accepting investments from individual non HNI clients? What is the mimimum amount of assets one needs to invest with you as an entry point. Thank you! \";}', '2019-04-18 03:56:33'),
(303, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Thirumalesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Chigateri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:31:\"thirumalesh.chigateri@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9535004592\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:127:\"Hi,\r\nI am interested in your PMS services.\r\n\r\nWould appreciate a call to get more details on your services.\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nThiru\r\n\";}', '2019-04-18 05:58:07'),
(304, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"aditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"dhar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"adityadhar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+65-91452701\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:345:\"Hi\r\n\r\nI am interested in exploring the Consistent Compounders PMS product and would like to learn more. Any literature on the philosophy, min investment size, hold period, fees&#047;costs involved etc. would be appreciated.\r\n\r\nI am presently a DIY investor and am looking into invest funds with a long time horizon (7-10 years)\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nAditya\";}', '2019-04-18 06:42:09'),
(305, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Manmohan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Lakhotia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"superbiz1@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9342566144\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:48:\"Interested in distribution of your PMS products \";}', '2019-04-18 06:52:41');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(306, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"JamesUpliz\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"JamesUpliz\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"cgorillamail@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"266416821\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:616:\"Hi, \r\n \r\nI&#039;ve been visiting your website a few times and decided to give you some positive feedback because I find it very useful. Well done. \r\n \r\nI was wondering if you as someone with experience of creating a useful website could help me out with my new site by giving some feedback about what I could improve? \r\n \r\nYou can find my site by searching for &quot;casino gorilla&quot; in Google (it&#039;s the gorilla themed online casino comparison). \r\n \r\nI would appreciate if you could check it out quickly and tell me what you think. \r\n \r\ncasinogorilla.com \r\n \r\nThank you for help and I wish you a great week!\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-19 11:20:24'),
(307, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Louisdom\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Louisdom\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"svetlanacol0sova@yandex.ua\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"383772863\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:229:\"Grow your bitcoins by 10% per 2 days. \r\nProfit comes to your btc wallet automatically. \r\n \r\nTry  http:&#047;&#047;bm-syst.xyz \r\nit takes 2 minutes only and let your btc works for you! \r\n \r\nGuaranteed by the blockchain technology!\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-19 14:06:37'),
(308, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Rudresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"tkrudresh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09886391833\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:263:\"Respected sir,\r\n\r\nI am investing 15000 per month in     sip mf, I have seen your interviews and I read about your book, I want to create wealth for my children education and for my future expenses, for this will I get advise from your team.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nRudresh T K\";}', '2019-04-20 05:04:36'),
(309, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Rudresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"tkrudresh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09886391833\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:263:\"Respected sir,\r\n\r\nI am investing 15000 per month in     sip mf, I have seen your interviews and I read about your book, I want to create wealth for my children education and for my future expenses, for this will I get advise from your team.\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nRudresh T K\";}', '2019-04-20 05:04:38'),
(310, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Biswajit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Swain\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"ibiswajit@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:15:\"+1-925-819-9075\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1395:\"Hi Marcellus,\r\nHope you are doing well. \r\nFirst of all, Congratulations to Marcellus for lunching PMS in India.\r\n\r\nMyself and my friend are big fan of Saurabh Mukherjea and we are interested to invest in PMS managed by Saurabh Mukherjea.\r\n\r\nHowever, I have some questions to be clarified before we move forward. This is regarding variable fee structure in details and some investment queries such as for ex. \r\n1) If my investment return in the first year is less than or equals to 8%, is there any investment fees? if answer is No, For 2nd year if investment return is more than 16%, then whether your 20% fees are to be deducted calculating for 2 year? Need more clarity on variable fee structure. \r\n2) How much minimum return is expected for 3 years time frame?\r\n3) I am currently in USA with work Visa (Don&#039;t have Green Card &#047; Citizenship) , Am I eligible to invest?\r\nFYI, I have normal resident account in India.\r\n4) Can I track my portfolio online?\r\n5) No of bushiness days needed my investment to get reflected in my portfolio AND number of business days needed to get the money credited my account in case of redemption request?\r\n6) What is minimum top up investment amount after initial 25 lacs?\r\n\r\nPlease reply back to my email: ibiswajit@gmail.com.\r\n\r\nIn case you would like to reach me out, Please call to my US Mobile No: +1-925-819-9075.\r\n\r\nKind regards,\r\nBiswajit Swain\r\n\";}', '2019-04-21 13:15:47'),
(311, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Dipanjan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Das\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"dipanjann@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09350090174\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-04-21 15:43:31'),
(312, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"DennisHab\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"DennisHabKD\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"ktpvn410@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"81211357218\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:373:\" \r\nЯчейка Крун ПКУ6 ПКУ10, КТП КОМПЛЕКТНЫЕ ТРАНСФОРМАТОРНЫЕ ПОДСТАНЦИИ москва, Производство ктп москва, а также многое другое Вы найдете на нашем специализированном сайте: http:&#047;&#047;sviloguzov.ru&#047; - Мы рады Вам!	\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-22 02:29:32'),
(313, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Neha\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Sureka\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"neha.sureka@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9920903655\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:297:\"Hey, I&#039;d like to subscribe to blogs and know more about investments I could make for the longer term - which companies look good for large ticket size investments? Also, please let me know if you could manage my investment portfolio for me, and what you may need to do the same. Thanks - Neha\";}', '2019-04-22 07:45:36'),
(314, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ankit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"ankitmht@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819990489\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:84:\"Planning to invest in Consistent Compounders. Please contact me. I have few queries.\";}', '2019-04-22 13:38:06'),
(315, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Dibyendu \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Pal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"dibyendu_pal@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+91 9051348299\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"Interested in PMS managed by Marcellus. Please give me a call.\";}', '2019-04-22 16:14:33'),
(316, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kenneth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Evans\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"kennethevans34@gmx.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"(15) 5552-6685\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:545:\"Howdy,\r\n\r\nI&#039;ll keep this brief.\r\n\r\nWe run a guest posting platform that allows our clients to get backlinks from our database of sites. For publishing each article, we pay these sites a set editorial fee. Is this something that would interest you?\r\n\r\nIf yes, then more details can be found here including a sign up form: https:&#047;&#047;goo.gl&#047;forms&#047;RtWIvojZxyZaw4VB2\r\n\r\nHope to hear from you soon and thanks for your time.\r\n\r\nKind Regards,\r\nKenneth Evans\r\n\r\n\r\nP.S: Kindly note, this is a paid guest post opportunity only.Thanks\";}', '2019-04-23 02:11:32'),
(317, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sharad\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Kochhar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"skms11@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09818929000\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-04-23 07:02:43'),
(318, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Williamscepe\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Williamscepe\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:31:\"plan.b.fundingoptions@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"272456254\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1433:\"Hello from Plan B - Funding Options LLC \r\n \r\n \r\n*If you&#039;re thinking about starting your own business or if you need funding for most other reasons there&#039;s 3 things that you need to keep in mind. \r\n \r\n \r\n1. You need to make a well thought out plan, try to cover everything you want to accomplish and think of what could go wrong along the way. You could create a business plan and or executive summary to use as your guideline. As a rule, it’s best NOT to ask family or friends for money its best to use (other people’s money) a funding source that you have no personal relationship with. \r\n \r\n2.  Expect your plan to fail in part or full in many cases this will happen no matter how well you thought out your plan. Unforeseen obstacles and speed bumps often will come in your path that prevent your plans from going as you had projected. \r\n \r\n3.Always without exception have a (Plan B). And that&#039;s where we come in. We are your Plan B! \r\n \r\n*Please visit our website for details at: https:&#047;&#047;www.planbfundingoptions.com \r\n \r\nEmail us for funding or questions info@planbfundingoptions.com \r\n \r\n \r\nCall Us    : 949-682-9235 (California Office) \r\n \r\n \r\n**If you do not need funding at this time, perhaps you know someone who does. We Pay Referral Fees!!! See this link to the page on our website that explains what it means for you! http:&#047;&#047;www.planbfundingoptions.com&#047;we-pay-referral-fees.html\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-23 17:04:37'),
(319, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Grishma\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Myatra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"grishma@blackhattalent.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+919820115430 \";s:12:\"your-message\";s:682:\"Hello,\r\nThis is in regards to the possibility of having Mr. Mukherjea as a guest speaker for the below corporate events:\r\n•  Dates- 27th May in Mumbai and 30th May in Bangalore\r\n•  Client- An IT Company\r\n•  Event type- Tech Fiesta- It’s an annual event of the company where they showcase new technologies and bring all customers & partners together \r\n•  Audience Profile and size- Customers and partners of the company; approx. 200 pax\r\n\r\nPlease share his availability for both the dates and expected honorarium for both the possibilities i.e in case of booking 1 event and in case of booking 2 events.\r\nPlease feel free to call or write back in case of any queries \r\n\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-04-24 07:14:09'),
(320, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"JeffreyIsops\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"JeffreyIsops\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:30:\"mayewiyotu@businessagent.email\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"12392664471\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1421:\"YOU HaVe BeEn HacKEd, \r\nIMPORTANT:  HeLlo, \r\nThe last time you visited a ?orn website, \r\nyou downloaded and installed my v?rus Encrypted in ads. \r\nMy program has turned on your cam and recorded the act \r\nof your ?asturbat?on.. \r\nI also have all your email contact l?sts \r\nand a list of your friends on Facebook as a result of the encryption. \r\nI have the - Admin.mp4 - with you jerk?ng \r\noff, as well as a file with all your contacts \r\non my computer. \r\nYou are very ?erverted! \r\nIf you want me to delete both files and scale through this, \r\nyou must send me a Bitcoin payment. \r\nI give you 72 hours only to send the funds. \r\nIf you don&#039;t know how to pay with Bitcoin, \r\nvisit Google and search - how to buy bitcoin&#047; you can buy from http:&#047;&#047;localbitcoins.com \r\n \r\nSend 1500 USD (0.268216 BTC) \r\nto this Bitcoin address: \r\n \r\n1DhpyWmvQ1VgtSYoY1ZgpmQ3BS28G31WvT \r\n(copy and paste) \r\n \r\n1 BTC = 5,588 USD right now, so send exactly 0.268216BTC \r\nto the address above. \r\nDo not try to cheat me! \r\nAs soon as you open this Email I will know you opened it. \r\nI am tracking all actions on your device.. \r\n \r\nThis Bitcoin address is linked to you only, \r\nso I will know when you send the correct amount. \r\nWhen you pay in full, I will remove both files and deactivate \r\nmy program. \r\nIf you choose to not send the bitcoin... \r\nI will send your ?asturbat?on v?deo to \r\nALL YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES from your\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-24 20:40:24'),
(321, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Srinivasa \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Sharan \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"srinivasa.sharan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9741248158\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:79:\"Hi,\r\n\r\n\r\nI would like to know more about your pms offering!\r\nThanks,\r\nSharan \r\n\";}', '2019-04-25 05:13:44'),
(322, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Rita\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"ritakmehta59@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820229036\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:405:\"We are a distributor for PMS offerings and mutual funds based out of Andheri. Currently we have an AUM of Rs 20 crs and we distribute PMS products of Motilal Oswal, Alchemy and ASK Investment Managers. We are also a channel partner of Motilal Oswal and distribute products of almost all mutual funds.\r\n\r\nWe would like to empanel for distributing your PMS offering as well. Do get back to us on 9820229036.\";}', '2019-04-25 11:04:46'),
(323, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Nilesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Ramnani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"nilesh140188@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9553954549\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:117:\"Do you have any fee structure which has a management &#047; performance fee only when the portfolio beats the Index? \";}', '2019-04-25 19:00:38'),
(324, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Mritunjoy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Hore\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"mritunjoy_hore@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"07440084994\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:553:\"Hello,\r\nI was reading the book &#039;Coffee Can Investing&#039; & there is one point which did not look good to me.\r\n\r\nGruh Finance made it way in CCP-2017. However, when I looked at the loan disbursement, it didn&#039;t meet 15% loan growth for the past 10 years although having 15% RoE throughout past 10 years. It would be great if you could explain.\r\n\r\nFinancial Highlights 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08\r\nLoan Disbursements 4,125 3,857 3,121 2,577 2,174 1,487 1,211 780 655 632\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nMritunjoy\";}', '2019-04-26 11:00:21'),
(325, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:13:\"contactyivzqx\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:13:\"contactyezhqj\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"brady_lunsford04@rambler.ru\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"123456789\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:33357:\"Dear sir! \r\n \r\nSending newsletters of Your commercial offers via follow-up forms to the sites of firms via all countries and domain zones of the world in all languages.  \r\n \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\nYour letter is sent to email address of institution one hundred percent will get to inbox folder! \r\n \r\nTest: \r\n10000 messages on foreign zones to your electronic box - twenty dollars. \r\nWe need from You only electronic box, title and text of the letter. \r\n \r\nIn our price list there are more 800 databases for all countries of the world. \r\nCommon databases: \r\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \r\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domain names- 1000$ \r\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of sites - 300$ \r\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domains - 200$ \r\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domains - 300$ \r\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \r\nNew sites from around the world registered 24-48 hours ago. (A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 500$ \r\nCompanies of Russia 3012045 - 300$ \r\nUkraine 605745 of domain names - 100$ \r\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \r\nNew domains of the Russia, registered 24-48 hours ago (A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 250$ \r\n \r\nDatabases: \r\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \r\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter&#039;s service at the request. \r\n \r\nP&#047;S \r\nPls., do not respond to this offer from your mailbox, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \r\nUse the contact form from the site http:&#047;&#047;xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \r\n \r\n \r\nPRICE LIST: \r\n \r\nTest mailing: $20 – 10000 contact forms websites \r\n \r\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites – $1100 \r\n \r\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites – $1000 \r\n \r\nAll Asia 48 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(326, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"chiranjan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"mamidi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"chiranjan.mamidi@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9739808282\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:106:\"Dear team - looking for financial advisory services and details of PMS . Best regards Chiranjan 9739808282\";}', '2019-04-27 05:07:46'),
(327, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Munish\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Kumar \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"munish.jmr@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810027222\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:50:\"Like to use your services for investing for self. \";}', '2019-04-27 12:45:43'),
(328, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Arjun\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Manoharan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"arjunmano@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9447593203\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:167:\"Hi, I have read and followed Mr Mukherjea. I am interested to invest with you guys. Could you send me an email regarding your strategies and the cost involved. Thanks \";}', '2019-04-27 18:36:16'),
(329, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Eddy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Abraham\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:35:\"eddy.abraham@fullertonfinancial.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"6592390690\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:22:\"Do you work with NRIs?\";}', '2019-04-28 10:46:50');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(330, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Harlanavelm\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Harlanavelm\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"gunrussia@scryptmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"147337462\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:494:\"25 charging traumatic pistols shooting automatic fire! Modified Makarov pistols with a silencer! Combat Glock 17 original or with a silencer! And many other types of firearms without a license, without documents, without problems! \r\nDetailed video reviews of our products you can see on our website. \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;gunrussia.pw&#047; \r\nIf the site is unavailable or blocked, email us at - Gunrussia@secmail.pro   or  Gunrussia@elude.in \r\nAnd we will send you the address of the backup site!\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-28 23:04:13'),
(331, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Deepak\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Chaudhry\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"deepak48@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9811070595\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:123:\"I want to invest a minimum sum of 25vlacs in the PMS. Please contact me at 9811070595.\r\nI am based out of Delhi.\r\n\r\nThanks!\";}', '2019-04-29 04:59:11'),
(332, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"mitul\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"sanghavi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"mitul@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9322211747\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:34:\"Want to know about compounders pms\";}', '2019-04-29 05:27:24'),
(333, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Parul \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Behal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"behalparul@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09873076445\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:20:\"Want to know abt PMS\";}', '2019-04-29 05:53:50'),
(334, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Jaydeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Godbole\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"jgodbole@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820540572\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:151:\"Hello Team,\r\n\r\nI am a first time PMS investor & want to start investment. Need more information on the same before i start\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nJaydeep Godbole\";}', '2019-04-29 06:29:08'),
(335, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Anuj \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Dalmia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"anujdalmia@akruti.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845127936\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:73:\"Would like to understand your product and offering the same to my clients\";}', '2019-04-29 10:08:59'),
(336, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"sanjeev\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"sharma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"sanjeevs02@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6593394016\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:222:\"Dear Marcellus Team, \r\nI&#039;m looking to make long term investment in equities and your PMS services caught my attention. May I seek your time to further understand the scheme. I&#039;m an NRI based in Singapore. Regards\";}', '2019-04-29 13:34:44'),
(337, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Alok\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"alokgpee@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9899061907\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"Want to know more abou PMS services offered by Marcellus\";}', '2019-04-29 17:55:02'),
(338, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Suresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Kumar \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"sureshbhavu@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+96899220367\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:237:\"Hi Good evening, \r\nI would like to thank Mr.Saurabh for his COFFEE CAN advise and his views and insights on classic compounders. \r\nI would like to know more about the PMS investment in your esteemed organisation. \r\nBest Regards \r\nSuresh \";}', '2019-04-29 18:31:19'),
(339, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"RobertEmaks\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"RobertEmaks\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"conciergexleads@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"251237218\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1588:\"Hi, marcellus.in \r\n \r\nLet&#039;s see how we can achieve better advertising result for your business. \r\n \r\nI would like to start by sharing with you a case study of a local campaign we ran for a Burger King franchise. \r\nTheir budget was only $1200 and we got them $4,825 in value of sales! \r\n \r\nSee how we did it - Click here https:&#047;&#047;www.conciergedigitalleads.com&#047;uploads&#047;sYvnOSwp&#047;SuccessStories-ReachFrequency-BurgerKing.pdf to download the Burger King case study \r\n \r\nOur company runs full-service Facebook Advertising campaigns with guaranteed results for as low as $375 for a one-off campaign. \r\n \r\nLet&#039;s schedule a quick call to see how we can get more clients for you on Facebook. \r\n \r\nOur process is super short and easy \r\n \r\n1.	We set up a 15min call in which we learn about your business \r\n2.	On the same call, we can design a campaign and start running \r\n3.	We do all the work – a 100% \r\n4.	You can try us with a very low budget \r\n \r\nLet’s talk today.  Click here https:&#047;&#047;conciergeleads.youcanbook.me&#047; to Book a 15mins Free Consultation Now \r\n \r\nWe do everything from writing the copy, designing the ad, set up, and delivery on Facebook, ongoing optimization and reporting. \r\nWe deliver a FULL-service solution. \r\n \r\nBook a 15mins Free Consultation Now...Click here https:&#047;&#047;conciergeleads.youcanbook.me&#047; \r\n \r\nLooking forward to talking with you. \r\nThanks, \r\n \r\nEmily Van Garderen \r\nClient Management Executive \r\nConcierge Leads \r\nconciergeseoleads@gmail.com \r\nT. 844-899-9770 \r\n5887 N 42ND Street Milwaukee WI 53209\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-04-30 17:52:57'),
(340, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Akhilesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Bagri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"srimcb2003@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919867822233\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:138:\"Would like to receive newsletters. May look at PMS in the future. You can send in the performance figures so far. Please do not spam call.\";}', '2019-05-01 13:36:22'),
(341, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Anand\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Tandon\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"tandon.p.anand@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9505222234\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:101:\"I am based in Hyderabad and would like to invest in your PMS plan. Let me know what you need from me.\";}', '2019-05-02 06:39:17'),
(342, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"DNYANESH\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"SOVANI\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"dssovani@pictern.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7032659979\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:76:\"Would like to know your terms for distributorship for your PMS (ARN 152411).\";}', '2019-05-02 08:06:11'),
(343, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Rajkumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:15:\"karuppiah Rajan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:31:\"rajkumar.k.r@r-eliteraiment.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+447769732472\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-02 13:06:44'),
(344, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Johnsonfem\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Johnsonfem\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"digitalgenius1982@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"141547433\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:854:\"Are you keen on exploring the latest Marketing techniques to grow your business? \r\nIs your Business undergoing a period of stagnation? \r\nLooking for an untapped market for your Products and services? \r\nAt HMBC we intend on making the function of Marketing simpler and cost-effective for all organizations. With an innovative approach to Modern media and expertise in Online Marketing, Public Relations and Creative Designing, we can strategize and implement World Class solutions to help achieve your business goals both nationally and globally. \r\nFor a LIMITED period we are offering FREE Marketing Consultancy to all Business houses. Simply log on to our secure website https:&#047;&#047;www.hmbc.co.in and fill in the online Enquiry Form to book your FREE and DISCRETE telephonic consultation. \r\n \r\nI look forward to hearing from you. \r\n \r\n~Jai Hind ~\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-02 13:19:50'),
(345, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Goutham\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Jagannatha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"gouthamj99@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7680932144\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:89:\"I would like to invest in coffee can PMS. Give me a call. I want to know the next steps. \";}', '2019-05-03 04:06:48'),
(346, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Srikanth\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Bhagavat\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"BHAGAVAT@HEXAGONWEALTH.COM\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"09880460406\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:131:\"My company Hexagon Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd is a SEBI Registered Investment Advisor. We are examining PMS options for our clients. \";}', '2019-05-03 09:30:25'),
(347, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Haresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Balani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"haresh.balani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9900030247\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:29:\"How do I invest in your fund?\";}', '2019-05-03 19:54:22'),
(348, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Narayanan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Chelliah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"n.chelliah@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9894904913\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:131:\"Would like to know more about your offering of PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders. I might be interested in investing in this.\";}', '2019-05-06 07:04:40'),
(349, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Francescilky\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Francescilky\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"angelaRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"13372125055\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1317:\"Hello!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe offer \r\n \r\nSending your message through the Contact us form which can be found on the sites in the Communication section. Contact form are filled in by our program and the captcha is solved. The profit of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This technique raise the chances that your message will be read. Mailing is done in the same way as you received this message. \r\nYour   message will be seen by millions of site administrators and those who have access to the sites! \r\n \r\nThe cost of sending 1 million messages is $ 49 instead of $ 99. (you can select any country or country domain) \r\nAll USA - (10 million messages sent) - $399 instead of $699 \r\nAll Europe (7 million messages sent)- $ 299 instead of $599 \r\nAll sites in the world (25 million messages sent) - $499 instead of $999 \r\n \r\n \r\nDiscounts are valid until May 10. \r\nFeedback and warranty! \r\nDelivery report! \r\nIn the process of sending messages we don&#039;t break the rules GDRP. \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype – FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com \r\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161 \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2W7OhBi \r\n \r\nIt&#039;s time to finish.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-06 19:14:33'),
(350, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Rajendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mittal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"rajendrakmittal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09920204692\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"Would like to know about your portfolio management services \";}', '2019-05-07 02:04:06'),
(351, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"LLovegeet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Dhuria\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"lovelydhuria@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9888465065\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:70:\"I want to empanel as a partner with you.Call me for further discussion\";}', '2019-05-07 04:26:22'),
(352, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vijay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Ramakrishnan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"rvijaykumars@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919600074140\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:28:\"Looking to invest in the AIF\";}', '2019-05-07 16:04:34'),
(353, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Sainath \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Dabholkar \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"dabholkar_sainath@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09820642376\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"I am interested to invest in your PMS. \";}', '2019-05-07 16:13:45'),
(354, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"entry\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"1test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"1234567890\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-08 05:38:45'),
(355, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"test\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"entry\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:15:\"1test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"1234567890\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-08 05:40:19'),
(356, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"test\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"entry\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:15:\"1test@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"01234567890\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-08 05:40:26'),
(357, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Sreenivasan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"R\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"radhasreeni@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9886103036\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:376:\"I am a big fan of CCP book written by Saurabh Mukherjea. I am impressed with the insights he shares about the market. I read his blogs and article. I could understand from your website, one need to have 25L investments to avail your service. Just wanted to reach out and check with you, do you offer services (may be advisory only) for people with small corpus, say few lakhs?\";}', '2019-05-08 08:46:40'),
(358, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"ANUP \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"SAKHALA\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"anupsakhala@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9823860020\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:20:\"investment praposals\";}', '2019-05-08 08:51:44'),
(359, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Rajendra Kr \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mittal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"rajendrakmittal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919920204692\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:32:\"Want to know more about your PMS\";}', '2019-05-08 16:30:49'),
(360, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Tubesexamads\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:14:\"TubesexamadsNA\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"hugerlogan95@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82242899149\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:173:\"Some genuinely nice and useful info on this internet site [url=http:&#047;&#047;sexytuber.com]sexytuber.com[&#047;url], besides I believe the pattern has got good features. \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-09 12:16:37'),
(361, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"JosephDah\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"JosephDah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"michaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"235775574\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:208:\" Hi Passable information ! superioroffers \r\n Right-minded click on the connection below to prepare  \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;drive.google.com&#047;file&#047;d&#047;1v8NZUoVT2e0Nja3dVAkwK9oKy-xyoUXr&#047;preview\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-10 08:38:01'),
(362, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rakesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bhatia\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"rakesh1130@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971557659297\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-11 08:26:47'),
(363, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"harsh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"mirani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"harsh.mirani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9669435700\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:37:\"Interested to know more about the PMS\";}', '2019-05-11 12:27:28'),
(364, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Padmakar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Madam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"connect2paddu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9886644122\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Would like to invest in the PMS scheme of Consistent compounders.\";}', '2019-05-12 06:39:39'),
(365, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Hitendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Patidar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"hitenpatidar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8600168524\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:23:\"Interested in investing\";}', '2019-05-12 07:04:03'),
(366, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sudip\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Paul\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:30:\"sudip.chemistry@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"08258921340\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:53:\"Requires stock recommendation of sh Saurabh Mukherjee\";}', '2019-05-12 07:27:04'),
(367, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Aditya \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Khanna\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"adikhanna00@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-12 12:26:07'),
(368, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Fermingok\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"FermingokWF\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"ktpvn411@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"89566183416\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:373:\" \r\nПункт секционирования столбовой псс-10 реклоузер, Ктп комплектные трансформаторные подстанции москва, Производство ктп москва и др. на нашем специализированном сайте:  - Вам сюда!https:&#047;&#047;vk.com&#047;club111724259\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-12 12:53:53'),
(369, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Tejesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Sen\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"tejeshsen@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09823015587\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:17:\"Interested in PMS\";}', '2019-05-13 05:30:43'),
(370, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Aaditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"shahaaditya92@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09820592880\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-13 11:16:04'),
(371, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Manojit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mondal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"manojit09@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9004068611\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"I am interested in PMs service \";}', '2019-05-13 17:00:43'),
(372, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"RaymondGek\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"RaymondGekVW\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"ktpvn411@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82732764153\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:192:\" \r\n<a href=https:&#047;&#047;www.youtube.com&#047;watch?v=lvBytim1MC8&list=PLnzw9EuFoSBmLO4djI4GCHKBjaGqjKOcS&index=3&t=0s>трансформаторная подстанция ктп<&#047;a>\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-13 17:28:59'),
(373, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"SURESHA\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"KODAPALA\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sureshakbhat@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919449468190\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"I AM INQUIRING REGARDING PMS. Thank you \";}', '2019-05-14 15:41:00'),
(374, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Ettienne\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"van Staden\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"lamar.milo@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"06-83990649\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:600:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nI&#039;ll keep this short and to the point. I really like your website, but the truth is you can be ranking a lot higher on Google for some buyer keywords in your industry.\r\n\r\nI want to personally offer you 30 days free SEO and backlinks to improve your search results, which means more leads and sales for your business.\r\n\r\nInterested? Of course you are :) (well, you should be)\r\n\r\nVisit us at http:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;30days-free-seo to get started. \r\n(30 days free trial, then $49 p&#047;m – cancel anytime)\r\n\r\nHave a great week and we&#039;ll talk soon!\r\n\r\nKind regards,\r\nEttienne\";}', '2019-05-14 22:39:12'),
(375, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Himil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"himil0811@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9619484422\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:49:\"Distributor of Investment products and insurance \";}', '2019-05-15 20:14:18'),
(376, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sajdin\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Ahmed\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"syed.sajdin@indwealth.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9011610894\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:67:\"I am based out of Pune. Need to meet the sales representative here.\";}', '2019-05-16 04:57:05'),
(377, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kuldeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Goel\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"dgoel25@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6591453160\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:207:\"Hi, I am looking for details of your PMS product. Could you please send me more information like minimum investment amount, minimum holding period and other details.\r\n\r\nThanks and Best Regards,\r\nKuldeep Goel\";}', '2019-05-16 10:09:09'),
(378, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Prashanth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"prakrish@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+447404640821\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:202:\"Hi, I am interested in understanding how your PMS service can help me? Please call me over the weekend as I am in a restricted location during the week and won&#039;t be able to speak freely.\r\nPrashanth\";}', '2019-05-16 14:56:35'),
(379, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Sashi\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Shanmugavelu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"sashishanmugavelu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9994856888\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:170:\"Hi: I am interested to know about your PMS & initial capital investment requirement for individual investors.You can email or call at the above given information. Thanks.\";}', '2019-05-16 15:21:08'),
(380, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sashi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Shanmugavelu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"sashishanmugavelu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9994856888\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:175:\"Hi: I am interested to know about your PMS services & initial capital investment requirements for individual investors.You can reach me in the above given contact info.Thanks.\";}', '2019-05-16 15:27:19'),
(381, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Terrellcoalt\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:14:\"TerrellcoaltQX\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"bogd.an.usi.kow.@inbox.ru\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82317886461\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:3674:\"Пантогор - гель для суставов быстро избавит от боли в суставах без вреда для здоровья. \r\nПолная потеря дееспособности и жизнь без надежды на будущее - вот, что вам грозит, если вы не позаботитесь о своих суставах! \r\nЖить полноценной жизнью или провести остаток своих дней в инвалидном кресле - решать вам! \r\nПо данным Всемирной организации по борьбе <b>с болезнями суставов<&#047;b>, 80% людей в мире имеют проблемы с суставами. Самое страшное, что заболевания суставов приводят <b>к параличу и инвалидности<&#047;b>. На сегодняшний день есть одно единственное средство, которое отличается от всех существующих до этого средств. Это средство Пантогор. \r\nОсновной компонент Пантогора - <b>панты канадского марала<&#047;b>. Панты канадского марала <b>активируют<&#047;b> природные <b>силы организма и запускают<&#047;b> процесс его <b>самовосстановления<&#047;b>. Все остальные компоненты действуют <b>синергически - дополняют и усиливают<&#047;b> действие друг друга. <b>Прием<&#047;b> средства Пантогор <b>гарантирует<&#047;b> вам <b>избавление от боли в суставах<&#047;b> всего <b>за 1 курс<&#047;b>. \r\nВнимание! Акция действует только на территории России и стран СНГ! \r\nУспейте оформить заказ по выгодной промо-цене! \r\nЗаказать Пантогор Здесь --> http:&#047;&#047;c.trktp.ru&#047;ud6b \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;make-my-link-longer.glitch.me&#047;show&#047;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?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=main&utm_campaign=THIS_TOTALLY_UNOBTRUSIVE_CAMPAIGN_NAME&utm_content=some_sad_place_on_the_internet&more_ridiculous_things_in_your_links=because_why_not&maybe_we_can=write_poetry_in_utm_links&utm_utm_utm_utm_utm_param=bye&oh_and_dont_forget_the_facebook_click_id=thanks&fbclid=IwAR0fgPKx3ebuM5dpH3FG8MlCITeSVkGFFeNlQX31Tiu4pmNvAoi_Sw44Knk\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-16 16:54:10'),
(382, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Terrellcoalt\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:14:\"TerrellcoaltQX\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"b.og.dan.usik.ow@inbox.ru\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82293827288\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:3674:\"Пантогор - гель для суставов быстро избавит от боли в суставах без вреда для здоровья. \r\nПолная потеря дееспособности и жизнь без надежды на будущее - вот, что вам грозит, если вы не позаботитесь о своих суставах! \r\nЖить полноценной жизнью или провести остаток своих дней в инвалидном кресле - решать вам! \r\nПо данным Всемирной организации по борьбе <b>с болезнями суставов<&#047;b>, 80% людей в мире имеют проблемы с суставами. Самое страшное, что заболевания суставов приводят <b>к параличу и инвалидности<&#047;b>. На сегодняшний день есть одно единственное средство, которое отличается от всех существующих до этого средств. Это средство Пантогор. \r\nОсновной компонент Пантогора - <b>панты канадского марала<&#047;b>. Панты канадского марала <b>активируют<&#047;b> природные <b>силы организма и запускают<&#047;b> процесс его <b>самовосстановления<&#047;b>. Все остальные компоненты действуют <b>синергически - дополняют и усиливают<&#047;b> действие друг друга. <b>Прием<&#047;b> средства Пантогор <b>гарантирует<&#047;b> вам <b>избавление от боли в суставах<&#047;b> всего <b>за 1 курс<&#047;b>. \r\nВнимание! Акция действует только на территории России и стран СНГ! \r\nУспейте оформить заказ по выгодной промо-цене! \r\nЗаказать Пантогор Здесь --> http:&#047;&#047;c.trktp.ru&#047;ud6b \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;make-my-link-longer.glitch.me&#047;show&#047;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?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=main&utm_campaign=THIS_TOTALLY_UNOBTRUSIVE_CAMPAIGN_NAME&utm_content=some_sad_place_on_the_internet&more_ridiculous_things_in_your_links=because_why_not&maybe_we_can=write_poetry_in_utm_links&utm_utm_utm_utm_utm_param=bye&oh_and_dont_forget_the_facebook_click_id=thanks&fbclid=IwAR0fgPKx3ebuM5dpH3FG8MlCITeSVkGFFeNlQX31Tiu4pmNvAoi_Sw44Knk\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-17 00:14:49'),
(383, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Anirudha \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Bhandari\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"aniruddh.bhandari@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7350803803\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:116:\"We as a group are looking for PMS solutions. Please arrange for a call or a meeting with your representative. Thanks\";}', '2019-05-17 06:17:05'),
(384, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"PARESH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"LAKHANI\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"PARESH.LAKHANI@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9987745511\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-18 04:54:01'),
(385, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"khalid\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"bhat\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"innovative33@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"07447484742\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"Would like to know more about the fund\";}', '2019-05-19 05:01:40'),
(386, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Thavaseelan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"thava1862@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9862884498\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Would like to know more about the PMS Product\";}', '2019-05-19 17:21:15'),
(387, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"AurelioBuh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"AurelioBuh\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"135565842\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:139:\" Hi nicesacrifice \r\n Are you in?  \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;drive.google.com&#047;file&#047;d&#047;1tiK9iCXTGydGn-XnK4T2VbmUcHSGDy0y&#047;preview\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-19 19:52:12'),
(388, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vineet\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Sachdeva\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"sachdeva.vineet@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9867635659\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:33:\"Please contact me for PMS. Thanks\";}', '2019-05-20 05:56:46'),
(389, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Mukesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"mukesh@robocapital.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9967576010\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:120:\"We are boutique wealth advisory company. We would like to get ourselves empanel with you to distribute your PMS product.\";}', '2019-05-20 06:04:51'),
(390, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Anil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Sama\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"samaanil@icloud.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"5153056276\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:157:\"Hi, I recently moved to US. My wife will be joining me in a month. We would like to know more about Marcellus offerings. \r\nThank you.\r\nAnil \r\n+1 515 305 6276\";}', '2019-05-20 06:47:01'),
(391, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Cyrus \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Patel \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"Cyrus@csppatel.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9821029787\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:265:\"I am a veteran investor with several multibaggers under my belt. I would like however to invest a part of my portfolio with you please let me know when we can arrange to meet. I already have corresponded with Saurabh and I am on his email list. Regards Cyrus Patel \";}', '2019-05-20 13:51:23'),
(392, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Suneet\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Sood\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"suneets@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9643805949\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"Pls contact for investment to PMS - Consistent Compounders \";}', '2019-05-21 06:46:58'),
(393, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Uneesh \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Patel\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"uneesh.patel@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9537327330\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-21 09:13:46'),
(394, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Nikhil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Otavanekar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"nikhilotavanekar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8336947262\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:106:\"I would like to know more about PMS by Marcellus. Kindly reach out to me at the co-ordinates shared above.\";}', '2019-05-21 18:40:48'),
(395, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"SamuelKedge\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"SamuelKedge\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"svetlanacol0sova@yandex.ua\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"186778236\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:240:\"Let your bitcoins brings you +10% per 2 days. \r\nGet paid automatically and earn again! \r\n \r\nTry  http:&#047;&#047;dc-btc.site \r\none click registration and getting asset \r\n \r\nPowered by Mutual assistance Algorithm and Blockchain. \r\nWarranty!\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-22 01:42:35'),
(396, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Praveen\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Jindal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"praveenojindal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8889290009\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:110:\"i want to invest my savings for long term. to create fund for my daughters marriage, education and retirement.\";}', '2019-05-22 02:41:13'),
(397, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:15:\"Pioneer Wealth \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Management\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"vikisg8@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9742327698\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:66:\"Hi, my firm has a few clients who are looking to invest in a PMS .\";}', '2019-05-22 04:16:19'),
(398, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sunil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Sharma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"sunilkgs@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9765410625\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:81:\"Looking at creating a portfolio of stocks for long term and CAGR of 18% per annum\";}', '2019-05-22 06:44:32'),
(399, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Suket\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"pathak\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"suket.pathak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+85294042527\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:262:\"Hi Guys\r\n\r\nI am keen to get in touch with Rakshit. We spoke before I invested in CCP and am now looking to invest more, would like to understand how CC is different if at all. Also, a bit pissed that ambit did not announce the portfolio manager leaving... Cheers\";}', '2019-05-22 08:40:27'),
(400, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Datta\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Choudhari\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"dachoudhari@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9834362784\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:240:\"I am looking for  investments  in stocks ,require advisory consulting . Please  connect with me on 9834362784.\r\nI am staying in Pimple Saudagar , Pune 411027  area .\r\nLooking forward to  your positive  reply .\r\nBest Regards\r\nDatta Choudhari\";}', '2019-05-22 11:28:24'),
(401, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Richardhaw\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Richardhaw\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:36:\"libertymarketingvideosmail@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"14256267989\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:623:\"Hi, \r\n \r\nYou guys do great work, and we’d like to help simplify your message to potential customers. \r\n \r\nWe’re an animation company currently working with a number of companies like yours to simplify their message through a custom video (http:&#047;&#047;libertymarketingvideos.com ). We wanted to reach out to discuss an animated video for you as well. \r\n \r\nIf interested reply ASAP…We&#039;ve got a few slots open to discuss your video and wish to pencil you in. \r\n \r\nThanks, \r\n \r\nSam Daouk \r\nProject Manager | Liberty Marketing Videos \r\nWebsite: http:&#047;&#047;libertymarketingvideos.com \r\nPhone: (226) 777-0381\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-23 16:13:57'),
(402, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Unni\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Krishnan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"ukrishnanpm@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971506800154\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:113:\"Would like to know more about Marcellus PMS, what is the minimum amount of investment accepted, charges etc. etc.\";}', '2019-05-24 05:16:04'),
(403, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sushant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Nag\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sushantnag2004@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971567616991\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"Hi, I am a NRI based in Dubai. I am interested in investing in your PMS. Pls contact me for the details. \";}', '2019-05-24 08:29:37'),
(404, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Sirajudeen\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"M\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"karthik_rbl@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9751756703\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:156:\"Am a Regular reader of your article in Naanayam Vikatan Tamil. And its impressive. Required your investment tips. Plz contact ASAP to have regular business.\";}', '2019-05-24 14:06:22'),
(405, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Abhishek \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Agrawal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"abhishek.aggrawal88@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"001 9105141190\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:172:\"I am living in united states, I here the director of your company speak on bloomberg quint and I liked his thinking.\r\nWould like to seek your help in building my portfolio.\";}', '2019-05-24 15:26:34'),
(406, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Pankaj\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Chitlangia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"pankaj.chitlangia@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9004659996\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:41:\"Need further understanding of the product\";}', '2019-05-25 05:25:19'),
(407, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vikesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"vikeshmehta@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9845527136\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I am based out of Bangalore. Interested in investing in your PMS.\";}', '2019-05-25 09:36:09'),
(408, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Viral \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:28:\"viral@jainwealthmanagers.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9924447374\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Can you share product details \";}', '2019-05-25 16:56:09'),
(409, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Taher\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:2:\"Mi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"taher.mm@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971529115545\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:132:\"Hi, I&#039;d like to know what is the minimum amount you accept in your PMS ( consistent compounder). I am an NRI and work in Dubai.\";}', '2019-05-26 04:23:12'),
(410, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:13:\"Rajprit Singh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Saluja\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"rajpritpoojan@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09839068699\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:176:\"Interested in your PMS. Also seeing Motilal , Alchemy, Stalwart, Abakus , Kenneth Adrade’s etc. But I think coffee can investing wil suit my temperament. Please connect asap.\";}', '2019-05-26 05:17:48'),
(411, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Gaurav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"gaurav.gupta104@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810512298\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-05-26 05:34:12'),
(412, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Himanshu \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Runthla \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"hrunthla@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:64:\"Hi interested in pms details. I am interested to be a part of it\";}', '2019-05-26 08:47:10'),
(413, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Hiren\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sheth\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"hsheth923@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+16097899494\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:282:\"I&#039;m a NRI based in US.  I&#039;m looking to invest in Indian equities.  Saw a YouTube video on your firm and thought I should explore investment possibility.  Please send me a investor presentation and whatever other material you think will help me better understand Marcellus.\";}', '2019-05-26 17:30:29'),
(414, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Robertsmido\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Robertsmido\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"angelaRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"18287440404\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1387:\"Hi!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe propose \r\n \r\nSending your message through the feedback form which can be found on the sites in the Communication section. Feedback forms are filled in by our software and the captcha is solved. The superiority of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This technique increases the chances that your message will be read. Mailing is done in the same way as you received this message. \r\nYour  business proposition will be seen by millions of site administrators and those who have access to the sites! \r\n \r\nThe cost of sending 1 million messages is $ 49 instead of $ 99. (you can select any country or country domain) \r\nAll USA - (10 million messages sent) - $399 instead of $699 \r\nAll Europe (7 million messages sent)- $ 299 instead of $599 \r\nAll sites in the world (25 million messages sent) - $499 instead of $999 \r\nThere is a possibility of FREE TEST MAILING. \r\n \r\n \r\nDiscounts are valid until May 31. \r\nFeedback and warranty! \r\nDelivery report! \r\nIn the process of sending messages we don&#039;t break the rules GDRP. \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype – FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com \r\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161 \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2W5hq08 \r\n \r\nHope to hear from you soon.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-27 09:20:14'),
(415, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"SHAJI\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"RAWOTHER\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"SHAJI.RAWOTHER@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+966501559225\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:673:\"I am a NRI currently working in Saudi Arabia.\r\n\r\nAs on today 28-May-2019, I am currently holding Indian Equity Stocks as listed below:\r\n1. Amount Invested :  Rs 41,56,760\r\n2. Current Valuation 28-May-2019 : Rs. 41,06,730\r\n3. Total Holdings&#047;Shares in Indian Companies : 52-Listed Company\r\n\r\nMy Objective in contacting you: How can you assist me in managing my Indian Equity Investments listed above, so that I an earn minimum 18 - 20%  returns per annum on my investment.\r\n\r\nI am resident of Kerala, 53-Years Old, Working in Saudi Arabia for last 26 years, about to return back to India for good very shortly.\r\n\r\nAppreciate your feedback on my email.\r\n\r\nThank You\r\n\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-05-28 01:44:35'),
(416, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"RANJAN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"GHOSH\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"ranjan.90@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930864223\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:496:\"I wish to be reorient my portfolio consisting of MUTUAL FUNDS  & PMS&#039;S with an FINANCE counselling EXPERT. I was recently advised by someone on coffee can investing & also partly read through Mr Saurabh Mukherjea&#039;s book on Coffee can Investing.I did attend your recent webinar & felt that the need for correction at my end is definitely desired.\r\n\r\nI am located in Pune and will appreciate if someone can hand hold me on the way forward on further investments.\r\n\r\nRegards, \r\n\r\nR K Ghosh\";}', '2019-05-28 06:59:59'),
(417, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"RAVINDRA\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"JAWARI\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"RAVINDRABJ@HOTMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9980051417\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:100:\"I am looking for investing in PMS. I would like to understand about the product and start investing.\";}', '2019-05-28 11:54:19'),
(418, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:14:\"pushpesh kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"samaiya\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"pushpesh.samaiya85@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+16149733681\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:142:\"Hi Team,\r\nJust wanted to check if there is any Advisory service offered by your team as I am not able to find one on the web-portal.\r\n\r\nThanks\";}', '2019-05-28 14:41:24'),
(419, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"srishty\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"agarwal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"srishtyagarwal02@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7506552998\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"I am looking to open my demat account and also. I want to open PMS account. Can i be guided.\";}', '2019-05-29 06:12:16'),
(420, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:1:\"S\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Rahul\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"lavigoenterprises@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8104525945\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:169:\"Am interested in distribution of Marcellus PMS. Have been follower of Coffee can investing myself. Ex Banker. Shall be keen to expose the same in market.\r\nRegards\r\nRahul\";}', '2019-05-29 15:24:40'),
(421, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"278475736\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:216:\"marcellus.in  Hey Look what we possess for you! superiorpresent \r\n To be fit click on the unite under the sun  \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;drive.google.com&#047;file&#047;d&#047;1iZK5JEggDr_MkytU4W6JJpQTNsvcQ9Ot&#047;preview\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-31 08:00:56'),
(422, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Naveen\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Sharma\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"banglore.granites@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9887182565\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:106:\"How can I become your distributor ? Let me know your terms & condition. I&#039;m from Udaipur , Rajasthan.\";}', '2019-05-31 09:47:29'),
(423, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Cecilves\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Cecilves\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"joshuaiptvgang@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"351773874\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1143:\"——Subscribe to our IpTv service to get over 15.000 Tv channels from all world & over 25.000 Tv series and movies , No more expensive cable bills , no more pay per view , watch your favorite channels from any location on any device . Almoast all sports channels from globe. Working on any pc, apple mac, iphoe smart tv, smart phones & tablets, any iptv receivers like mag, enigma etc... \r\n10% discount to all orders: sp10off <—- coupon code at checkout \r\nCheck our lowest prices:  https:&#047;&#047;iptvgang.com \r\n—— We are open for business collaboration, you can earn 10.000$ monthly with start reselling our service. You can open your own business with your brand. Read more at reseller section in our website. \r\n—— If you don’t want to earn money with us as a reseller you can do it with our affiliate system , register at affiliate section in our website and start sharing your affiliate link to your friends , social media or any other promotional way ... and get 15% procent from all selings that commings from your link . \r\n \r\nContact us at any time you need. \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;iptvgang.com \r\nemail : info@iptvgang.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-05-31 15:50:15'),
(424, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"BBWBabeiTels\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Chubby Milf\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"galvenworthington@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"89545259595\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:156:\"There as certainly a great deal to know about this subject. I like all the points you ave made [url=https:&#047;&#047;bbwporn.me]fat teen pussy[&#047;url]. \";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-01 07:56:51'),
(425, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Sachin \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Patwardhan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:29:\"patwardhan_sachin@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"+97433203935\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:222:\"I am keen to invest in Marcellus Portfolio based on Coffee Can Investing philosophy.  Could you guys initiate communication between us to take our journey forward please.  Eagerly waiting to hear from you.  Thanks, Sachin.\";}', '2019-06-02 00:17:42');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(426, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sachin \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Patwardhan \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"patwardhan_sachin@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+97433203935\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-02 00:33:53'),
(427, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Donaldamogs\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Donaldamogs\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"xxaxxxx92@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"335628745\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:547:\"Congrats on registering your domain! \r\n \r\nThe next step you can do for your website is to make sure listed in the search engines. \r\nGetting your website included in the search engines is the first you should take as a new webmaster or domain owner. \r\n \r\nPlease register your website as soon as possible so your new domain is properly indexed. \r\n \r\nThis Notice will expire at 11:59PM EST, 4 - Jun - 2019 Act now! \r\n \r\nBoost your website ranking in Google, Bing and Yahoo follow the link below : \r\n \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;nalotnisko.pl&#047;domain&#047;\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-02 13:29:53'),
(428, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Pramod kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Giri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"pkumar1953@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810993022\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:228:\"How can I take benefits from mr saurabh mukherjia advice?Does. He gives advice on stock selection or some monthly&#047;annual subscription. I am retd.govt official want to earn money from his valuable knowledge .Kindly guide me.\";}', '2019-06-03 15:56:04'),
(429, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Jamesplumn\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Jamesplumn\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"intermstores@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"286151251\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:661:\"Dear Sir, \r\nI bring to your notice this multi million business supply that will benefit you and me. \r\nMy company wants to purchase some raw material from your country urgently. \r\nThis raw material is the major material our company uses in production and for research purposes since 2005 and my boss wants to visit your country to source for this raw material but due to my interest in this business, I have contacted you to stand-in as the supplier to supply this raw material to my boss so that we can share the profit.Get back to me immediately for more details about this business supply on my private email:  intermstores9@gmail.com \r\nSincerely, \r\nJere Haas\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-04 03:39:21'),
(430, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Sathyajith\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"N\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:30:\"sathyajithnandakumar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9940075541\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:67:\"Hi, can you call I need to know some details on the funds. \r\nThanks\";}', '2019-06-04 07:44:23'),
(431, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Karan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"karanashitshah@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819211279\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:23:\"Interested in investing\";}', '2019-06-04 08:26:14'),
(432, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"WilliamLaf\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"WilliamLaf\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:16:\"swissdaq@aol.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"268685642\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:218:\"We are a Share Trading facility for unlisted companies. \r\n \r\nObtain CASH for your private company shares. \r\n \r\nFast track approval for your investor&#039;s VISA to Great Britain. \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.swissdaq.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-04 21:49:36'),
(433, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ajay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sahni\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:36:\"universal.electronics.ajay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9935227861\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:35:\"I want to build my equity portfolio\";}', '2019-06-05 03:19:57'),
(434, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ajay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sahni\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:36:\"universal.electronics.ajay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9935227861\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:29:\"I want to build my portfolio \";}', '2019-06-05 03:21:35'),
(435, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Raymondprill\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Raymondprill\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:31:\"plan.b.fundingoptions@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"267357281\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1433:\"Hello from Plan B - Funding Options LLC \r\n \r\n \r\n*If you&#039;re thinking about starting your own business or if you need funding for most other reasons there&#039;s 3 things that you need to keep in mind. \r\n \r\n \r\n1. You need to make a well thought out plan, try to cover everything you want to accomplish and think of what could go wrong along the way. You could create a business plan and or executive summary to use as your guideline. As a rule, it’s best NOT to ask family or friends for money its best to use (other people’s money) a funding source that you have no personal relationship with. \r\n \r\n2.  Expect your plan to fail in part or full in many cases this will happen no matter how well you thought out your plan. Unforeseen obstacles and speed bumps often will come in your path that prevent your plans from going as you had projected. \r\n \r\n3.Always without exception have a (Plan B). And that&#039;s where we come in. We are your Plan B! \r\n \r\n*Please visit our website for details at: https:&#047;&#047;www.planbfundingoptions.com \r\n \r\nEmail us for funding or questions info@planbfundingoptions.com \r\n \r\n \r\nCall Us    : 949-682-9235 (California Office) \r\n \r\n \r\n**If you do not need funding at this time, perhaps you know someone who does. We Pay Referral Fees!!! See this link to the page on our website that explains what it means for you! http:&#047;&#047;www.planbfundingoptions.com&#047;we-pay-referral-fees.html\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-05 11:02:44'),
(436, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Viraj \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Vora\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:31:\"virajvora@bluefortfinancial.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920649949\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:416:\"Hi Team, \r\n\r\nI am Viraj Vora, reaching out on behalf of BlueFort Financial. We are a private wealth outfit in the advisory and financial distribution business. We wanted to take a closer look at Marcellus PMS for our clients and hence, looking for a contact person for the same. This would enable us to distribute the PMS to our clients, which would benefit all the parties involved. Kindly contact me for the same. \";}', '2019-06-06 12:20:16'),
(437, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rivera\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Rivera\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:32:\"loans@achorinvestementusallc.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"14068107796\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:218:\"Sir&#047;madam \r\n \r\nI work with anchor investments USA llc, a loan company that does commercial and private funding kindly get back to me if you interested for more information \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;aiusallc.com \r\nRivera\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-06 15:23:21'),
(438, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Samir\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Pinto\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"samir.pinto@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9035131709\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:90:\"I would like to know more about your PMS offering. Could I contact you at a suitable time.\";}', '2019-06-06 18:00:53'),
(439, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Vishwajit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kamat\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"arvish2002@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09662006856\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:41:\"Requesting you to contact me for details.\";}', '2019-06-07 03:40:46'),
(440, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:2:\"VA\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Rangarajan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"VARangarajan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9741888786\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:147:\"I would like to discuss potentially having you manage about 3 crores of my funds, please revert asap.\r\nThanks\r\n- Rangarajan\r\n9741888786\r\nBangalore.\";}', '2019-06-07 05:53:51'),
(441, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Kiran\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Cornelio\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"kiranvc@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:14:\"00971566379428\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:251:\"Dear Team,\r\nI do have the book of CC Investing and have ready through it. Would like to take your service for investing in the stock market. Can we have a call and understand how this is managed and the details to take this forward.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nKiran\";}', '2019-06-07 07:57:17'),
(442, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kiran\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Cornelio\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"kiranvc@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"971566379428\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:122:\"Dear Team, I am looking forward for an investment and build my portfolio. Please feel free to reach out to me.\r\n\r\nRegards,\";}', '2019-06-07 07:58:25'),
(443, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"DennisHab\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"DennisHabKD\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"ktpvn413@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"84799747345\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:377:\" \r\nПункт коммерч еского учета электроэнергии 10 кв ПКУ10-6кв, КТП КОМПЛЕКТНЫЕ ТРАНСФОРМАТОРНЫЕ ПОДСТАНЦИИ москва, Производство ктп москва, а также многое другое Вы найдете на: http:&#047;&#047;sviloguzov.ru&#047; - Мы рады Вам!	\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-08 00:17:51'),
(444, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Varun\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Hegde\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"varun1292@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9632012217\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-08 08:46:25'),
(445, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Pradeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dodle\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"pradeep.dodle@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9972066655\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:49:\"Interested in knowing more about your PMS product\";}', '2019-06-08 18:56:56'),
(446, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"254611127\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:86:\"Look at a good  promotion for you. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2KAeWns\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-08 20:58:51'),
(447, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kuldeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Venati\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"kuldeep.venati@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:8:\"93394176\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:164:\"Hi, I am Kuldeep and based in Singapore. Have been an admirer of Saurabh&#039;s books and thought process. Please let me have the details on the new PMS offerings. \";}', '2019-06-10 07:09:15'),
(448, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"JAY\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"PAREKH\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"jayparekh21@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9821558844\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"investment \";}', '2019-06-10 12:29:34'),
(449, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Ronak\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Rana\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"ronakrana86@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8578003053\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:264:\"Hi, I am an NRI living in California. Very impressed with your approach on investing, and interested in investing in your PMS service. Please reachout to me via phone&#047;whatsApp&#047;email. M: +1.857.800.3053, email - ronakrana86@gmail.com.\r\nThanks,\r\nRonak Rana\";}', '2019-06-10 21:11:33'),
(450, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rajesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"rajeshshah506@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9702081267\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:17:\"Interested in PMS\";}', '2019-06-11 07:31:14'),
(451, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"neeraj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"varshney\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"neerajvarshney.eme@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9419256037\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:184:\"I am based in Delhi and interested in your PMS scheme. I would like to understand the modalities. Please call me on a Saturday or Sunday or on a week day after 5.30pm. Or else mail me.\";}', '2019-06-11 07:38:12'),
(452, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"RichardSketS\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"RichardSketS\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"raphaeRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"331387151\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:801:\"Hi!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe present \r\n \r\nSending your commercial offer through the Contact us form which can be found on the sites in the contact section. Feedback forms are filled in by our program and the captcha is solved. The profit of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This technique raise the chances that your message will be read. \r\n \r\nOur database contains more than 25 million sites around the world to which we can send your message. \r\n \r\nThe cost of one million messages 99 USD \r\n \r\nFREE TEST mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your choice. \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nSkype live:contactform_18 \r\nEmail - ContactForm@make-success.com \r\nWhatsApp - +353899461815\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-11 11:29:14'),
(453, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ujjval\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Majmudar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"ujjvalmajmudar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+966507589006\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:72:\"Hi,\r\nI want to understand your product in detail. Can you give me a call\";}', '2019-06-12 10:52:53'),
(454, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1264:\"Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \n\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state&#047;city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \n\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \n\n Secure Online Payment: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:1:\"1\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:1:\"1\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:31:\"noreply@domainregistryboard.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"954-320-4679\";}', '2019-06-12 23:51:26'),
(455, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1264:\"Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \n\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state&#047;city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \n\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \n\n Secure Online Payment: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:1:\"1\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"1\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:31:\"noreply@domainregistryboard.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"954-320-4679\";}', '2019-06-12 23:51:29'),
(456, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Ritesh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Motlani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"ritesh.motlani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+19259224708\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:122:\"Hi,\r\nI am USA based NRI untreated in pms scheme. Please share presentation and minimum amount to invest \r\n\r\nThanks\r\nRitesh\";}', '2019-06-13 03:47:13'),
(457, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Kamineny\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Prasad\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"kbrprasad@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09848674757\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:14:\"for investment\";}', '2019-06-13 04:07:10'),
(458, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Sam\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:11:\"Ramamoorthy\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"samram999@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+14087819574\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:274:\"Hi,\r\nI have had the opportunity to view a few of your videos and would like to get the opportunity to discuss.\r\nI am in India currently for the next few days and am in Powaii.\r\nWould it be possible to meet w Saurabh for a cup of coffee in the next few days.\r\nthanks,\r\nsam...\";}', '2019-06-14 02:41:09'),
(459, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:3:\"Sam\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Ramamoorthy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"samram999@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"+14087819574\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:140:\"Hi,\r\nCan you share the fee structure for >5 Cr. initial investment; The webinar refers to a different structure, pl advise.\r\nthanks,\r\nsam...\";}', '2019-06-14 04:26:34'),
(460, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rommel\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Carvalho\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"rommel_carvalho@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9421152458\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:36:\"Seeking portfolio management advice.\";}', '2019-06-14 11:34:41'),
(461, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Kaushal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Sanghavi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"kaushal_sanghavi@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9096019530\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:286:\"Hello, I am interested in your PMS product. I&#039;ve been investing in mutual funds for more than a decade now, and have been impressed with your approach to investing, and would like to understand more about starting a PMS investment. Looking forward to hearing from you soon. Thanks.\";}', '2019-06-14 14:06:02'),
(462, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Milind\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Polkade\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"milindpolkade@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9420042400\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-14 16:02:05'),
(463, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"kiran\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"mundyks@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"Interested in some long term investments\";}', '2019-06-14 22:01:34'),
(464, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Kavita\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Mathur\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"kavita.mathur1966@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810804922\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:72:\"I am a salaried employee looking for an investment advisor.\r\n\r\nThank you\";}', '2019-06-15 02:10:32'),
(465, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Gaurav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"gaurav_mht@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8826120124\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\"Hi , I would like to know as to how can i\r\nAvail the services\";}', '2019-06-15 02:57:18'),
(466, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Surendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Shah \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"surendrashah@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9824043850\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:37:\"I am interested in your ,pms s chemes\";}', '2019-06-15 03:49:11'),
(467, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Marita\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Menezes\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"menezesmarita@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+971528668267\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:228:\"Dear Sauabh, Looking forward to the distributor option. I am currently based on Dubai, UAE and would like to discuss the options and take this forward. \r\nKindly let me know the contact number, I will reach out.\r\nRegards,\r\nMarita\";}', '2019-06-15 05:55:24'),
(468, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Chintan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"chintangupta1993@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930817512\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:118:\"Hi is there anyway in which I can subscribe to blogs of marcellus through which I can directly get it in my email id ?\";}', '2019-06-15 06:37:23'),
(469, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Anil \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Kamath\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"anilkama@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930450967\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-15 06:48:50'),
(470, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"YILDIRIM\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Mehmet\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"Yldrmmehmet258@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"5333979713\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:505:\"\r\nDear investor\r\n\r\nI want to talk to you about my business idea\r\nA unique taxi app where you can view my Takxı status and current schedules. The application can be offline without the need of internet or GPS. It is also packed with useful features such as target alarms and a speedometer\r\nWith the Where is taxi app you can add a reminder by typing You can also follow the things that need to be followed and add photos\r\n\r\nndroid’de Yahoo Postadan gönderildi\r\n\r\nAndroid’de Yahoo Postadan gönderildi\";}', '2019-06-15 08:29:08'),
(471, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"jay \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"parekh\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"jayparekh21@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9821558844\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:3:\"PMS\";}', '2019-06-15 08:50:09'),
(472, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"BHARATKUMAR\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"UNERCAT\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"ssbharat@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"+6590125455\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:84:\"Hi\r\nWould love to chat with Saurabh on the PMS options.\r\nCommander Bharat, Singapore\";}', '2019-06-15 10:32:53'),
(473, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Katyal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"katyal.sanjay@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9582133199\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:46:\"Interested in CCP. Plse give me a call. Thanks\";}', '2019-06-15 11:38:40'),
(474, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Kiran\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"kirank_gh@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:248:\"Hi,\r\n    I am interested in PMS services, Could you please let me know about the following details ? \r\n1. What is the fee strucuture ? Any entry and exit load ?\r\n2. Is there scenario example to understand the fee structure ?\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nKiran Kumar\";}', '2019-06-15 14:50:24'),
(475, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Venugopala\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Madumbu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"mvgkbhat@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9880627826\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Interested in investing in PMS\";}', '2019-06-15 15:15:52'),
(476, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"AnthonyMub\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"AnthonyMub\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"marketing-team@aplana.us\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"118134174\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1037:\"Hi! We are working with businesses like yours to support them in the creation of excellent websites and mobile apps of any complexity and specification. \r\nIf your CEO &#047; CTO &#047; CIO has plans to launch new digital resources or update existing ones (to iOS 13 for example), Aplana can be a valuable partner and assist in achieving those goals. \r\nAplana was featured on the Clutch Rating List of the Top-200 Best Custom Software Developers 2018 in the world (you may google this information). \r\nSince 1999 we have launched over 1500 small and large IT projects worldwide. We deliver digital projects to US customers through our highly skilled software teams in Eastern Europe. \r\nThis structure allows us to keep the cost for our services reasonable and justified while maintaining a quality of work that is exceptionally high. \r\nPlease contact us if you have any technical RFP ( request@aplana.us ) or visit us at http:&#047;&#047;aplana.us \r\nto get more info. \r\nPlease, accept our apology if it currently doesn&#039;t apply to you.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-15 19:44:27'),
(477, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Navjyot\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Nashine\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"nashine1988@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7529068666\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:4:\"Pms \";}', '2019-06-16 17:21:02'),
(478, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Vaibhav \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"vaibhavgin@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9717495750\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:85:\"I&#039;m interested in Long Term Investing. I&#039;m based in Delhi ...pls contact me\";}', '2019-06-17 04:36:38'),
(479, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"kunal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"G\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"kunalslp@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:8:\"90820025\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:178:\"Dear Sir,\r\nI am interested on opening your PMS account. Could you give me more details about your PMS account over email id\r\nPlease let me know the procedure to open PMS account.\";}', '2019-06-17 07:22:25'),
(480, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Suresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"N\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"tanyavini@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"I would like to receive mailers about Three Longs & Three shorts , News letters. Thanks & Regards, Suresh\";}', '2019-06-18 04:12:26'),
(481, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Madhusudan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Roy\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"roy.itsmadhu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819741979\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:709:\"Dear Saurabh, I really thank you for writing such a wonderful book &quot;Coffee Can Investing&quot; for Indian Investors and I became a big fan. I am 38 years old with two monor kids and want to retire at the age of 52 to pursue my passion as a Music Composer-Guitarist. My life is quite similar to your character in book Mr. Talwar. Please help me to construct my portfolio for next 10 years. I really do not have 25 lacs as of now to join as PMS client but I wish if you could help me as your reader. I have 5  direct MF&#039;s each with 10k per month. My goal is to have 5 Crore at the retirement in year 2032.\r\n1. Mirae Large Cap 2. Axis Multi Cap 3. HDFC Small Cap 4. Tata Consumer 5. Tata India Digital \";}', '2019-06-18 06:56:17'),
(482, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"254611127\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:91:\"There is nice  premium pay for winning. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2KAr0oW\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-18 07:44:27'),
(483, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"AnthonyMub\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"AnthonyMub\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"marketing-team@aplana.us\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"118134174\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1037:\"Hi! We are working with businesses like yours to support them in the creation of excellent websites and mobile apps of any complexity and specification. \r\nIf your CEO &#047; CTO &#047; CIO has plans to launch new digital resources or update existing ones (to iOS 13 for example), Aplana can be a valuable partner and assist in achieving those goals. \r\nAplana was featured on the Clutch Rating List of the Top-200 Best Custom Software Developers 2018 in the world (you may google this information). \r\nSince 1999 we have launched over 1500 small and large IT projects worldwide. We deliver digital projects to US customers through our highly skilled software teams in Eastern Europe. \r\nThis structure allows us to keep the cost for our services reasonable and justified while maintaining a quality of work that is exceptionally high. \r\nPlease contact us if you have any technical RFP ( request@aplana.us ) or visit us at http:&#047;&#047;aplana.us \r\nto get more info. \r\nPlease, accept our apology if it currently doesn&#039;t apply to you.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-18 19:27:29'),
(484, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"RobinExomb\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"RobinExomb\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"miltonadaminovit@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"187367517\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:656:\"Hi. My name is Adam from &quot;Inovit&quot; animation studio. \r\nOur studio creates professional 2D animation explainer videos about services&#047;products that help to answer questions that your prospects or clients might have, such as How it works? What for? What are the main benefits etc. \r\n \r\nSome examples of our work (portfolio) - https:&#047;&#047;www.youtube.com&#047;inovit  ? \r\n \r\nPlease, let me know if you are interested in our services and I will send you more information. Or we can simply set up a short phone call. \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nwebsite - https:&#047;&#047;inovitvideo.com&#047; \r\nphone - (888) 274 8845 \r\ne-mail – am@inovitvideo.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-18 21:52:28'),
(485, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Umesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Jandial\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"umeshjan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971557048955\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:50:\"Hi, Im based in Dubai. Looking for a PMS service. \";}', '2019-06-19 11:09:29'),
(486, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"254611127\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:88:\"Please note a good  present for win. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2KBBowr\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-19 19:33:48'),
(487, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"GIREESH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"GUPTA\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"GIREESHGUPTA2003@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+918826720677\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:152:\"Hi, I am a small time individual investor and wanted to know if you could help me invest on a regular basis.\r\nLook forward to hearing from you.\r\nCheers!\";}', '2019-06-20 10:16:08'),
(488, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Stephennor\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Stephennor\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"gulfnet755@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"312331775\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:191:\"Dear sir&#047;madam, Our customer want to speculate your region for good gain. please contact us for more information on  +973 650 09688 or mh@indogulfbs.net Best regards Mr. Mat Hernandez \r\n\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-20 10:49:28'),
(489, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Allenglunc\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Allenglunc\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"kelly.cruz@evrosis.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"245128436\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:956:\"EVROSIS Technologies’s turnkey solutions: we customize our products and services to meet the exact requirements of our clients. At EVROSIS TECHNOLOGIES, our developers, engineers, and data scientists are experts in Financial Engineering, High Frequency Trading, Trading Platform & financial markets. \r\n \r\nOur competitive strengths: High Speed Networks Development, High Performance Computing, Deep Learning A.I., High Sharpe Ratio Trading models, and talented Quant Traders. \r\n \r\nYou can Get custom Trading Solutions for any Exchanges&#047;ECNs in The World or use pre-prepared Solutions and Profit from a state-of-the-Art Model. You will save Time and Money by Working with Us. \r\n \r\nContact us and we will implement your needs. \r\n \r\nKind regards \r\n \r\nKelly Cruz \r\nSales \r\n \r\nWebsite : http:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2ZAvRdI \r\nSkype: support.evrosis \r\nE-mail : info@evrosis.com \r\nEVROSIS Technologies Ltd. \r\n130 Old Street, London, United Kingdom, EC1V 9BD\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-21 07:38:48'),
(490, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Shrenik\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sheth\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"s.shrenik@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9987007699\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:136:\"Hello, can you advice the minimum for PMS service of your company. Also send details of the strategy - mid cap, small cap or large cap ?\";}', '2019-06-21 10:19:38'),
(491, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"ABHAY\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"KEJARIWAL\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:16:\"KEJIND@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810558384\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:187:\"I wish to subscribe to your services. Please let me know your details of same like min. investment, is it discretionary or non-discretionary, do you have demat or only advisory services ?\";}', '2019-06-21 11:01:08'),
(492, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Partha\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:3:\"Das\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"partha.das22@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9428008714\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-21 14:33:23'),
(493, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"SACHIN \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"KAUSHIK\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:16:\"sach26@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00968 96409157\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:615:\"Dear Saurabh,\r\n\r\nI am a big fan of Coffee Can Investing Style of investing. You are the first stock analyst who has provided a frame work for screening out quality stocks.\r\n\r\nFollowing are the stocks that meet the Coffee Can Investing criteria (Sales > 10% in each of the last 10 years & ROC above 15%).\r\n\r\nDR LAL PATH LAB\r\nEICHER\r\nPAGE\r\nABBOTT\r\nCERA SANITARY WARE\r\nNEOGEN CHEMICALS - ONLY 7 YEARS DATA\r\nTATA ELXSI \r\nGRUH FINANCE\r\nTHYROCARE TECHNOLOGIES - ONLY 7 YEARS DATA\r\n\r\n Thank you for guiding us and streamlining our thoughts and research efforts to finding quality stocks.\r\n\r\nBest Regards,\r\nSachin Kaushik\r\n\";}', '2019-06-21 14:53:03'),
(494, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Nitin\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Gandhi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"nitingandhi31@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930063804\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"Interested in small cap. When are you expected to launch\";}', '2019-06-21 16:42:30'),
(495, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Chirag \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Dholakia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"ninexwealth@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920990279\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:58:\"Pls email product offerings n performance .. thanks chirag\";}', '2019-06-21 19:58:48'),
(496, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Satish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"shahsatish1404@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930132273\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"I want to invest in your PMS. Pl let me know further details\";}', '2019-06-22 01:17:28'),
(497, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Jain\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"sanjain101@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820797365\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"Hi, I am looking for a PMS. Let&#039;s get in touch.\";}', '2019-06-22 04:24:03'),
(498, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Gaurav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"gaurav.gupta104@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919810512298\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-22 04:35:32'),
(499, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"sourav \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"bhutra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"b.sourav1020@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9007259682\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:206:\"dear sir,\r\nthis is sourav bhutra qualification : ca final and cs final and an research in equity advisor i just wanted to associate in your firm so wat is the process and how could i connect with your team \";}', '2019-06-22 05:38:07'),
(500, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sushil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Maheshwari\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"creator_wealth@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7003112343\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:256:\"I am working as an IFA from Kolkata and have for more than 18 years of experience in the financial industry. I am looking forward to working with your organisation by offering your PMS products to my investors. If you are interested, kindly drop me a mail.\";}', '2019-06-22 08:24:38'),
(501, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Santosh \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Nikam\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"santosh18282@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9892770909\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:48:\"Need to know about empanelment & other details. \";}', '2019-06-22 17:56:24'),
(502, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"SPARSH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"DUBEY\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sparshdubey@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7709310361\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:44:\"Need to know more about services and chargea\";}', '2019-06-23 03:02:16'),
(503, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Rajiv\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Pandey\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"pandey_rajiv31@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9415183121\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:107:\"i am interested in  your pms scheme. pl provide your performance details since inception. thanks in advance\";}', '2019-06-23 07:45:14'),
(504, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"milan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"banerjee\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"milan_banerjee@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+918095130246\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"I would like to be associated with saurabh and his team.\";}', '2019-06-23 12:20:00'),
(505, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Amropali \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Banerjee\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"chinu09_2001@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8902686961\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:64:\"Please advise regarding investing in PMS consistent compounders \";}', '2019-06-23 12:37:05'),
(506, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"CrystalAcani\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"CrystalAcani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"jkklema111@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"376722512\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:297:\"https:&#047;&#047;www.worldgilt.com offers reliable and affordable bitcoin mining and other bitcoin innovative products such as Swift Bitcoin Mining, Set Bitcoin Mining and Bitcoin Lending since 2015! WorldGilt has a 91% Trust Score and less than 0.5% of clients required refunds in the 2018 year.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-23 21:12:56'),
(507, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"SHAIROJ\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"METHANI\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"shairojmethani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820106653\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"I would like to meet you all and discuss on the investment. I am interested in investing around 30 lakhs.\";}', '2019-06-24 06:53:47'),
(508, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Gaurav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"gaurav.gupta104@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810512298\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:16:\"Please contact. \";}', '2019-06-24 06:58:34'),
(509, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"himanshu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"rathi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"rathihimanshu@live.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7838161000\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:272:\"Hi, I am an individual investor who has been following saurabh mukherjee for couple of years and appreciate his view. Looking to invest in a sip oriented fashion but could not find any funds on any ports for mercellus. Any guidance would be great.\r\n\r\nThank You.\r\nHimanshu.\";}', '2019-06-24 08:01:40'),
(510, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Umesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Jandial\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"umesh.jandial@omkar.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"971557048955\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:49:\"hi... Pls get in touch. interested to do a PMS . \";}', '2019-06-24 08:21:05'),
(511, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Divya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Grover\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"divya24grover@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9910341308\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:77:\"I want to learn more about your investment procedures and how to go about it.\";}', '2019-06-24 08:29:09'),
(512, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Deepak\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"dearestdeepak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9920010510\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"Interested in PMS offering. Requesting call back please.\";}', '2019-06-24 09:39:07'),
(513, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Anirudh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"anirudh.lse@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9940035960\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-24 09:57:25'),
(514, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Priyanka\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Sharma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"iy3rpriyanka@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"6360634677\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-24 12:44:43'),
(515, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Tianna\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Forcino\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"tianna@interactivewise.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"06-79030539\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:587:\"Did you know that you might earn more money through Media ads network?\r\n\r\nMedia ads network has a very large base of advertisers who mainly advertise on Bing and Yahoo network\r\n\r\nAfter becoming a member of the network, you will get a customer representative dedicated to your account. They are advertising experts.\r\n\r\nAnd then combine with the powerful technology of Bing, you can imagine that your income will be maximized.\r\n\r\nGet Started with Media: https:&#047;&#047;www.interactivewise.com&#047;moremoney\r\n\r\nBest,\r\nTianna Forcino\r\n\r\n*Unsubscribe*: Send the text &quot;No e-mail&quot;\";}', '2019-06-24 16:38:01'),
(516, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ankur\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Bhanot\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:36:\"Bhanotdentalcareamritsar89@gamil.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7889065800\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"Plz send me detail regarding portfolio managment....\";}', '2019-06-24 21:43:12'),
(517, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Ankit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Madan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"ankit.madan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9513613393\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:173:\"I&#039;d like to know more about your offerings, planning for a PMS portfolio and I am new to this space. I&#039;d like to know about liquidity, costs and returns to expect.\";}', '2019-06-25 12:19:17'),
(518, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"CarolynWet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"CarolynWet\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"willfredrrussell@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"171178412\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:793:\"Good day to you, \r\nMy name is Barrister Wilfred Russell, a British lawyer. I have previously sent you a message regarding a transaction worth $ 10.5 million left by my late client before his tragic death. \r\nI am contacting you once again because after going through your profile, I strongly believe that you will be in a better position to execute this business transaction with me. Please if you are interested, I wish to point out that after the transaction I want 10% of this money to be donated among charity organizations while the remaining 90% will be shared equal by the both of us. \r\nThis transaction is 100% risk free; please respond to me as soon as possible for more detailed information. Here is my email: willfredlaw@protonmail.com \r\nYours Faithfully, \r\nBarrister Wilfred Russell\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-26 00:05:27'),
(519, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"T.K.P.\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Naig\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"tkpnaig@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820196092\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:74:\"Request you to send me your newsletters every month.\r\n\r\nThank you,\r\n\r\nNaig\";}', '2019-06-26 09:32:56'),
(520, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Neha\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Ostwal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"neha1188c@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9028744675\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Hi!! I want to build a strong stock portfolio. Wanted to know about the packages that you offer. \";}', '2019-06-26 09:50:49'),
(521, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Neha\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Ostwal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"neha1188c@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09028744675\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"I want to invest in long term stocks. \";}', '2019-06-26 09:52:51'),
(522, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"George\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"John\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"georgejohn_k@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9841359907\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-06-26 13:21:08'),
(523, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"koushik\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"mohan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"koushik.24m@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8123770719\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"Hi Sir,\r\nI would like to talk to your team about investing  \";}', '2019-06-26 13:39:36'),
(524, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Nickven\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Nickven\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"pay.onlinewww@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"346658167\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:517:\"Hello, \r\n \r\nWe (https:&#047;&#047;payop.com) are payment aggregator of 150+ payment methods like PaySafeCard, Skrill, Ideal, Klarna, SEPA, Sofort, QiWi, Poli, Boleto, Oxxo, SafetyPay, FPX, UnionPay, Alipay and others, including European&#047;CIS card acquiring. \r\n \r\nPlease, advise whom I can contact in your company responsible for connecting new payment methods or expanding to new regions to discuss possible cooperation. \r\n \r\nKind regards, \r\nNick Koval \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.payop.com \r\nEmail: sales@payoplp.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-26 16:34:22'),
(525, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Naresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"rajabc101@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9035596007\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:37:\"I am interested in PMS . Let me know \";}', '2019-06-27 11:36:20'),
(526, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Ravi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Parikh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"parikhravi.14@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9784590750\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"I wish to explore performance based wealth management options.\";}', '2019-06-27 12:39:57'),
(527, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"simran\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"bhullar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"simran.bhullar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"06239947826\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:34:\"Please send me details of your PMS\";}', '2019-06-27 16:25:10');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(528, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Khoa\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Ho-Le\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"kenhole@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+61434024713\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"I live in Australia.  How can I make an investment with you?\";}', '2019-06-28 00:19:36'),
(529, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"GANESH KUMAR\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"MAHALINGAM\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:32:\"ganeshkumar.mahalingam@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6596208442\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:196:\"Hi, Please send me details over email to invest in your PMS. Since I am busy and travel quite a bit, it is difficult to catch me over phone. Hence, I prefer to interact over emails. Thanks, Ganesh\";}', '2019-06-28 06:08:09'),
(530, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"RALPH\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"RAU\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"ralphrau@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8080085535\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:190:\"Hi, I am a CA and NRI and would like to invest for myself initially and then later, in due course, advise my associates to invest with yourselves. Kindly arrange for your rep to contact me. \";}', '2019-06-28 07:40:26'),
(531, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Siju\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Nair\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:30:\"support@virtuousfinancials.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9739153272\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"Would like to know more about your PMS.\";}', '2019-06-28 11:06:22'),
(532, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Naresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"rajabc101@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9035596007\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:142:\"Hi..I am interested in your PMS offering. I can&#039;t find any email or phone number. Please call to discuss incase this product is available\";}', '2019-06-28 11:59:57'),
(533, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"INDERMOHAN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"SETHI\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"imssethi@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09890444157\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"Investment \";}', '2019-06-28 19:43:13'),
(534, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"manu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"miglani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:11:\"m@61140.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9050550888\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:53:\"Can you send me some details about your PM services? \";}', '2019-06-29 09:27:59'),
(535, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:16:\"SANJAY MADHUKAR \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"NANDANI \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"sanjay.nandani@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+919820700720\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:71:\"Can I please know more about the products and relevant charges. Thanks \";}', '2019-06-29 18:28:19'),
(536, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:94:\"Wish note an awesome  premium for victory. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2KzHe1x\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-06-30 02:39:49'),
(537, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Ravi\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"ravishah78@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8806660767\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"I am interested to understand what services you offer \";}', '2019-06-30 03:44:47'),
(538, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Krishan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Kant\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"kkant.walia1310@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9478135387\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"Want to know ,what is your term and condition for a Retail invester. \r\nRegards\r\nKrishan Kant\";}', '2019-06-30 13:51:16'),
(539, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Supriyo\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Majumder\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"supriyomajumder@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09811038810\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I would like to know more about your PMS and other fund options. \";}', '2019-06-30 15:15:33'),
(540, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Prakash\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Patil\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"drpatil1964@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9844022004\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Need plans for value investing.\";}', '2019-07-01 05:11:37'),
(541, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Vivek \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Rege\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:30:\"vivekrege@vrwealthadvisors.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820768077\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:48:\"Team would like to explore further to associate \";}', '2019-07-01 05:38:18'),
(542, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Manish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mundra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"mundra_manish@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+918420200466\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:47:\"I am keen to invest in PMS but need to discuss.\";}', '2019-07-01 06:13:05'),
(543, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:15:\"Janakiram Kumar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Katragadda\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"janakiram.kumar@gcia.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8978332242\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:310:\"This is Janakiram from Guardian Capital Investment Advisors. We are a family office for HNI clients, based in Hyderabad.\r\nWe are sourcing for newer products for our clients. We are interested in the product&#047;products offered by Marcellus, please share the contact details&#047;product details for the same.\";}', '2019-07-01 07:38:53'),
(544, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Nadiraj\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Kaliamurthy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"k.nadiraj@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:15:\"+91 98453 26753\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:110:\"Hi,\r\nI am Nadiraj, I am interested to understand the investment options with Marcellus. \r\n\r\nRegards\r\nNadiraj\r\n\";}', '2019-07-01 11:22:18'),
(545, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Salil\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Wagh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"3.salil@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9764954842\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:67:\"I would like to look at options to invest a corpus of approx. 30 L.\";}', '2019-07-01 15:28:53'),
(546, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Jaya sankar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"S\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"ssrjayasankar@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7726010786\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"Interested to know more about PMS and invest if sound good.\";}', '2019-07-01 16:10:31'),
(547, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Vineet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Biradar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:29:\"vineet.biradarpatil@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845777499\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-01 16:34:32'),
(548, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Pritesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dugad\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"ppdugad@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09822531391\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:155:\"Please share your PMS and other investment options and also back records. I am interested in investing in equities with a long term compounding statergy.. \";}', '2019-07-01 17:40:58'),
(549, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Jignesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"jsmehta@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9619772178\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:270:\"Look forward to understand PMS Strategy – Consistent Compounders.\r\nMy office address : \r\nInfiniti Retail Limited | A Tata Enterprise\r\nUnit 701 & 702, 7th Floor, Kaledonia\r\nSahar Road | Andheri East | Mumbai 400069\r\nLandline: +91 22 67613621| Mobile: +91 961 977 2178\r\n\";}', '2019-07-02 04:20:46'),
(550, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Sushil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"Maheshwari\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"essemm9027@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7003112343\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:70:\"I am interested in your products. Kindly contact me with all details. \";}', '2019-07-02 04:40:53'),
(551, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vidur\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Chhabra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"vidurchhabra@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8368079464\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:347:\"Dear Mr Mukherjea. We recently sold a property in Luytens Delhi, and we have a corpus of approx 35cr to Invest. We are primarily looking to invest in income generating investment and to reinvest the income into capital compounding investments. Do let me know if you could lead me towards the right direction. Thanks and warm Regards, Vidur Chhabra\";}', '2019-07-02 09:37:54'),
(552, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"venki\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"mannem\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"venki.mannem@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-02 11:18:19'),
(553, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Dipanjan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Das\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"dipanjann@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9350090174\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"Wanted more detail on the PMS offering\";}', '2019-07-02 11:29:15'),
(554, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\" Tania\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"nambiar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"nambiar.tania@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9573227408\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:98:\"Please subscribe me to ......Three longs & three shorts  , Insights , Newsletter\r\n\r\nThanks,\r\nTania\";}', '2019-07-02 12:22:45'),
(555, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sandesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Paturi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"psandesh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9650001750\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-02 13:50:29'),
(556, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"ContactForm\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"ContactForm\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"raphaeRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"375627528\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:861:\"Hello!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe present oneself \r\n \r\nSending your commercial offer through the Contact us form which can be found on the sites in the Communication partition. Feedback forms are filled in by our program and the captcha is solved. The profit of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This technique increases the probability that your message will be open. \r\n \r\nOur database contains more than 25 million sites around the world to which we can send your message. \r\n \r\nThe cost of one million messages 49 USD \r\n \r\nFREE TEST mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your choice. \r\n \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com \r\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-02 14:12:30'),
(557, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Manja\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Naik\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"manjanaika@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9448171518\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:122:\"Hi I am planning to take your service for investing in equity, please let me know the steps to avail your services, thanks\";}', '2019-07-02 18:28:57'),
(558, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"RichardDog\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"RichardDog\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"animatedvideos33@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"126631447\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1119:\"Hello, I just came across your website and wanted to get in touch. \r\n \r\nI run an animation studio that makes animated explainer videos helping companies to explain what they do, why it matters and how they&#039;re unique in less than 2 minutes. \r\n \r\nThis is our portfolio: \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2ZXuExm - what do you think? \r\n \r\nI would be very interested in creating a great animated video for your company. \r\n \r\nWe have a smooth production process and handle everything needed for a high-quality video that typically takes us 6 weeks to produce from start to finish. \r\n \r\nFirst, we nail the script, design storyboards you can’t wait to see animated. Voice actors in your native language that capture your brand and animation that screams premium with sound design that brings it all together. \r\n \r\nOur videos are made from scratch and designed to make you stand out and get results. No templates, no cookie cutter animation that tarnishes your brand. \r\n \r\nIf you’re interested in learning more, please get in touch on the email below: \r\nEmail: storybitevideos@gmail.com \r\n \r\nThank you for your attention.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-02 23:34:41'),
(559, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Ashish \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Rege\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ashishrege@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"+60175470921\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:142:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nI am interested in PMS.  I am based in Kuala Lumpur (IST + 2.5 hrs). \r\n\r\nLooking forward to a fruitful discussion.\r\n\r\nThanks \r\n\r\nAshish\";}', '2019-07-03 03:35:16'),
(560, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Ranjeet \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dugar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"rsdugar61@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810091250\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:81:\"I am looking at advisory on my current equity &#047; equity mutual fund portfolio\";}', '2019-07-03 09:28:08'),
(561, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Kumar \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"RVS\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"vensmar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9740947587\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Interested in your PMS service.\";}', '2019-07-03 13:39:17'),
(562, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Alok \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Rasal \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"alokrasal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8197751100\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:17:\"Interested in PMS\";}', '2019-07-03 17:48:54'),
(563, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:1:\"K\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Sabharwal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"klsabharwal111@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919871474151\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"I am interested to know more, about your services and charges and other terms &conditions.\r\n\";}', '2019-07-03 19:07:24'),
(564, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rajesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Vyas\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"rvyasca@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"4165563212\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:256:\"Canadian phone no. 4165563212 Canada&#039;s country code is 1.\r\nWhile maintaining PMS, at times would you be ever stay invested in ALL small cap stocks? or you would prefer marginally large cap in any state of economy?\r\nPlease advise.\r\nThanks,\r\nRajesh Vyas\";}', '2019-07-03 22:29:46'),
(565, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vikas\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Garg\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"vikasgarg3@ymail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9910028638\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"Please let me know what all services you offer for an investor\";}', '2019-07-04 03:52:26'),
(566, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Suresh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"S\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"raghavasuresh@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8056298074\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:10:\"Interested\";}', '2019-07-04 14:25:36'),
(567, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Keyur\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"keyurcfp@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7021562191\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:12:\"Pls contact \";}', '2019-07-04 15:28:48'),
(568, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"BHAGYASHREE\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"THEMASKAR\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:30:\"bhagyashreethemaskar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9923989500\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:79:\"Please contact me on top priority for PMS distributor empanelment.\r\nARN-135097 \";}', '2019-07-04 16:26:39'),
(569, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:15:\"Ishwinder Singh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Madan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"ishwindersinghmadan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9999171290\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\"I would like to know more details about investing in your pms\";}', '2019-07-04 16:44:05'),
(570, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Aniruddha \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Pattnaik\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"anpat67@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820316321\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:580:\"Dear Saurabh,\r\n\r\nof all the din, like your sagacity on the street..volume street!\r\n\r\nat 53, have a slight different view on coffeecan investing - though believe, old Mama way, best way...trying on my own..\r\n\r\nwould like to try your approach too.\r\n\r\nBuffet times..was a time when time or tech change stood still..for almost 25 years..tape recorder to walkman took 25 years!!\r\n\r\nin my lifetime, have seen the changes from 2005 to 2019!\r\n\r\nits almost akin to Alvin Toffler&#039;s Future Shock...\r\n\r\nwhich we await in next decade, will this formula owrk out?\r\n\r\nRegards\r\n\r\nPat\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-07-04 17:15:06'),
(571, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Sushant \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Behl\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sushant.behl@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9899728966\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:55:\"I want to know about your services offered by your firm\";}', '2019-07-04 17:15:28'),
(572, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Anselm\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"DSOUZA\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"anselm1238@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820082636\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:129:\"Would like to invest in your consistent compounds PMS..can we meet up sometime?\r\nAnselm DSouza\r\n9820082636\r\nSantander Cruz (West)\";}', '2019-07-05 02:31:07'),
(573, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Snehal \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Vasani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"snehal.vasani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9822022854\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:100:\"I am interested in your PMS. I live in Pune. I have been following Saurabh’s work and admire it.\r\n\";}', '2019-07-05 06:07:23'),
(574, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ujjwal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Senani\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ujjwalsenani@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9589898632\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:113:\"Would like to understand more on this as an investor. Currently only exposed in mutual funds and select equities.\";}', '2019-07-05 10:32:25'),
(575, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Pushp\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"pdgupta12@gmail.con\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6590254074\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:36:\"Kindly send me details of pms scheme\";}', '2019-07-06 07:33:54'),
(576, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Rohit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"rohit325955@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8434490904\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:136:\"I am a retail investor mostly investing thought SIP&#039;s. Do you guys provide advisory services related with direct stock investments?\";}', '2019-07-06 08:06:07'),
(577, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"TEJAS\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"SHAH\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:16:\"TEJAS@IFSCORP.IN\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820183544\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-06 13:39:49'),
(578, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Amit Kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Roy\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"amit.roy5805@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"6202095472\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"I want to make 1000x in 30 years by ur help. \";}', '2019-07-06 15:30:49'),
(579, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Yogesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:10:\"Kshirsagar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"yogesh500@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9320499373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:109:\"Need an investment avenue so that I can get a monthly income. Please let me know if you have a suitable plan.\";}', '2019-07-07 07:59:41'),
(580, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sameer\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Wakude\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"dcoolsam@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8308558900\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:152:\"Hi, \r\nI am interested in the PMS scheme. I wanted to invest 25-30 for my wife&#039;s portfolio. Could you please email me all the relevant information. \";}', '2019-07-07 13:24:37'),
(581, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Pradipta\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Banerjee\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"pradipta.banerjee@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9945164852\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:143:\"I&#039;m based out of Bangalore and want to know the preferred approach for investing in your PMS product. Is it direct or via Germinatewealth?\";}', '2019-07-07 14:11:12'),
(582, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sainul \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Abid\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"sainul87@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9745836439\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-07 18:09:26'),
(583, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Saurabh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"saurabhgupta99@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810381666\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-08 02:39:49'),
(584, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:10:\"Hrishikesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Shende\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"rishishende@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9999515544\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:204:\"Hi, I am a long-term investor and am an admirer of your founder&#039;s CCP approach. I would like to understand in more detail about the next steps and long-term investment strategy. Thanks,\r\n\r\nHrishikesh\";}', '2019-07-08 09:50:53'),
(585, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vivek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Agrawal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"vivek698@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8087539037\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:42:\"Interested in PMS - Call only on Thursdays\";}', '2019-07-08 11:39:24'),
(586, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"Stephenboubs\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"Stephenboubs\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:28:\"callndata.com@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"347723465\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:682:\"We do Mobile App & Web Application Development and assist in implementation system from Mumbai (India) &#047; Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia). \r\n \r\nWe have below  ready to use &#047; customize software: - \r\n \r\n1. ERP &#047;customized software for medium-sized business \r\n2. Hospital Managemeny System \r\n3. Education Institute Managemeny System \r\n4. Events and work flow system \r\n5. Recruitment system \r\n \r\n \r\nPlease feel to call me anytime on the below mentioned numbers, to discuss your Software Development requirements and I would be glad to assist you. \r\n \r\nTruly, \r\n \r\nRavi Kant \r\ncallNdata Technologies \r\n \r\nskype : ravikant2010 \r\nMobile: +91-9892 834 722 \r\nEmail : ravi@callndata.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-08 17:55:39'),
(587, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Varun\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kamat\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"varunk911@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"2015624996\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1218:\"Hi Nitesh&#047;Pramod,\r\n  \r\n\r\nI&#039;ve a bunch of questions to better understand the Coffee-Can-PMS strategy and make an investment decision.\r\n\r\n1. What&#039;s the current AUM of this portfolio? assuming the portfolio size expands, will the coverage universe also grow from 30 to 150 companies over time?\r\n- On small-caps!! I heard Saurabh discussing on the likelihood of investing in some high-quality small-caps as well. Is it fair to assume this being an addition to the coverage universe? How often would that occur?  \r\n\r\n2. From the performance standpoint, what would you like to be evaluated on and over what period of time (out-performance relative to a large-cap index)? Or is it the 8-12% out-performance vs. the Sensex that you&#039;re aiming to consistently achieve?\r\n\r\nNeed more clarity on the discretionary, non-discretionary and advisory portfolio management mechanism\r\n- Although I&#039;m most inclined to investing in the discretionary PMS option.\r\n- Is there an option of increasing my paid up capital over time? for instance, can I invest INR 35 lac to begin with and subsequently add INR 10 lac semi-annually?    \r\n\r\nWould be glad to hop on a call or get responses to the aforementioned over email.\";}', '2019-07-08 18:26:45'),
(588, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Vinayaka\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Muppana\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"vinay.muppana@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9930186483\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:82:\"Planning to invest through your PMS. Wanted further details and have some queries.\";}', '2019-07-10 03:57:12'),
(589, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Jaideep\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"jaideep@unicapital.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9886053349\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:147:\"Dear Team,\r\n\r\nI am interested in offering your PMS offering to my clients.\r\n\r\nKindly connect with me for a detailed discussion.\r\n\r\nRegard,\r\nJaideep\";}', '2019-07-10 15:27:26'),
(590, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Coleman\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Reymond\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"reymond.coleman60@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"078 1873 2302\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:199:\"For less than $49 monthly I can get thousands of qualified buyers to visit your site. Want to learn more? Just send a reply to this email address to get more details: highconvertingvisitors@gmail.com\";}', '2019-07-11 07:36:29'),
(591, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vineet\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Sachdeva\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"sachdeva.vineet@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9867635659\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"Please contact me for the PMS offerings.\";}', '2019-07-11 08:02:35'),
(592, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"ContactForm\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"ContactForm\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"raphaeRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"375627528\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:847:\"Ciao!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe present \r\n \r\nSending your commercial offer through the feedback form which can be found on the sites in the Communication section. Feedback forms are filled in by our software and the captcha is solved. The superiority of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This method raise the probability that your message will be open. \r\n \r\nOur database contains more than 25 million sites around the world to which we can send your message. \r\n \r\nThe cost of one million messages 49 USD \r\n \r\nFREE TEST mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your choice. \r\n \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161 \r\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-11 18:14:07'),
(593, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Vishal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Pandit\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"vdpandit@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919867732589\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Hello Marcellus\r\n\r\nI have a portfolio , wanna diagnose it and check possibilities of improvement.\";}', '2019-07-12 08:48:10'),
(594, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:16:\"UST CONSULTANTS \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Pvt Ltd\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"USTCONSULTANTS@YAHOO.CO.IN\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9838595310\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:160:\"Hi, we are a Lucknow based MF distributor. Would like to get associated as a distributor with your company. Kindly ask someone to get in touch with Mr. Tiwari. \";}', '2019-07-12 11:30:29'),
(595, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:102:\"There is clean up  stakes as a mending to winning. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NN6swr\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-12 13:37:16'),
(596, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Sai kumar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Gandham\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"saiku007@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8106006113\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-13 16:13:33'),
(597, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Sahiriar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Alam\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"sahiriar.1993@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8981355640\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:305:\"This message is specifically for Saurav mukherjea sir.\r\nI ran into this blog which says investing in mutual funds or portfolio management services is actually not good. Kindly let me know what you think.\r\n\r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;randomdimes.com&#047;2019&#047;why-mutual-funds-are-a-bad-investment-option&#047;\";}', '2019-07-14 05:20:27'),
(598, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Shishir\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Dixit\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"shishirdixit03@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9918393303\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"I wanna invest in your PMS\";}', '2019-07-14 06:06:40'),
(599, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"MANI\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"V S\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"vsmani25@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919387264120\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:589:\"Please let me know all details about Consistent Compounders PMS- Minimum Investment amount for PMS, investment horizon, anticipated returns, an idea of the Portfolio Composition, mode of operation of PMS, i have a Demat account with HDFC Secs, whether this account will be used or how does the PMS work? Your fees for managing the Portfolio? If we want to exit after a few years and redeem the Proceeds under the PMS account ways and means; how frequent are the updates on the PMS Portfolio? Sorry, if there are hidden charges, please mention the same! Wish you all the best at Marcellus..\";}', '2019-07-14 07:07:39'),
(600, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Shajee\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Puthalath\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"shajee_puthalath@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"0550509992\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:50:\"Please contact me or whatsapp me on +966550509992 \";}', '2019-07-14 11:30:57'),
(601, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1264:\"Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \n\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state&#047;city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \n\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \n\n Secure Online Payment: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:1:\"1\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:1:\"1\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:31:\"noreply@domainregistryboard.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"954-320-4679\";}', '2019-07-15 01:27:11'),
(602, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1264:\"Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \n\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state&#047;city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \n\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \n\n Secure Online Payment: \n\n https:&#047;&#047;domainregistryboard.com&#047;?n=marcellus.in&r=a \n\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:1:\"1\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"1\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:31:\"noreply@domainregistryboard.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"954-320-4679\";}', '2019-07-15 01:27:13'),
(603, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Harish \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Prabhu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"harish.prabhu@shell.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+971505536945\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:62:\"Pl contact.I want to discuss about PMS options you have.Thanks\";}', '2019-07-15 10:07:25'),
(604, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Harish\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Prabhu\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"harish.prabhu@shell.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971505536945\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Pl call. Want to discuss about the PMS.Thanks\";}', '2019-07-15 10:16:15'),
(605, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Kanubhai\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Patel\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"kbpatel@manishfilms.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+91 9825311399\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:43:\"Please send me emails for investment guide.\";}', '2019-07-15 11:02:10'),
(606, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:103:\"Descry is  a a-ok  adjacent for the doggedness you. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NLCFV2\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-15 21:31:22'),
(607, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Rajesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Punjabi\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"rpunjabi69@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:14:\"00971505843941\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:110:\"Heard a lot about Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea, want your advice on parking some funds into debt category. Thank You.\";}', '2019-07-16 13:22:48'),
(608, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rajesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Punjabi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"rpunjabi69@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"00971505843941\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"Need your assistance in parking some funds end of the year in Debt category . Thank You\";}', '2019-07-16 13:23:50'),
(609, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Darshansingh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Khalsa\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"deep_darshan57@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919426334708\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"Interested in PMS services\";}', '2019-07-17 00:54:48'),
(610, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Basak\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"sanjaybasak123@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9051374740\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:22:\"Want t start investing\";}', '2019-07-17 02:29:33'),
(611, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ishan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Gangakhedkar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:28:\"ishan.gangakhedkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971502085856\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:129:\"Hi - I do not have a major sum presently but would like to understand what products do you have that can suit my profile. Thanks!\";}', '2019-07-17 13:12:55'),
(612, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Fausto\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Guidry\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"fausto.guidry@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"997 92 631\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:194:\"For less than $39 monthly I can get thousands of high converting visitors to visit your site. Would you be interested in finding out more? Reply here for details: hiqualityvisitors@kmsgroup.club\";}', '2019-07-17 14:44:20'),
(613, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sangram\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gayal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sangram.gayal@pwc.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819197716\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:56:\"Please do reach out to me with regards to your products.\";}', '2019-07-17 15:45:34'),
(614, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Vasishth\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"adityavasishth@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"725969696689\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:48:\"Please contact me after 6:30 PM or on Saturdays.\";}', '2019-07-17 18:07:24'),
(615, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"sangram\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"gayal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"sangram.gayal@pwc.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9819197716\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:35:\"pl connect. Would like to know more\";}', '2019-07-18 05:17:21'),
(616, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Manpreet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Gambhir\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"m_gambhir@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9811323903\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Hi,\r\nWould like to have more details on your PMS product. Can you please share the same\r\n\r\nThanks\";}', '2019-07-18 10:20:08'),
(617, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Abhishek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"abhishek.plm@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919916110211\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"I am interested in pms services. Pls share details. Thanks \";}', '2019-07-18 20:14:11'),
(618, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"AJAYAN\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"T V\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"ajayantv@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9449244123\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:68:\" Wish to avail your PMS services. Discretionary- Variable fees only.\";}', '2019-07-19 08:29:41'),
(619, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Augastine\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Jose\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"augustinvj@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"+971558118770\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:34:\"I would like to know about ur PMS \";}', '2019-07-20 04:40:07'),
(620, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Sibyl\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Whiddon\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"whiddon.sibyl82@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"912 16 424\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:214:\"Get lots of high converting visitors delivered to your website for the low price of only $39. Would you be interested in how this works? Simply reply to this email address for more information: mia4754rob@gmail.com\";}', '2019-07-21 01:34:21'),
(621, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Stephenvob\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"StephenvobCQ\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"beletskaya007@yandex.ru\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"89373534885\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:166:\"Познакомься с красивой девушкой для секса прямо сейчас: http:&#047;&#047;tetablandwork.tk&#047;2zmx?&jzhsw=ckpW4JvEATX9\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-21 10:23:13'),
(622, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:23:\"Jingle Infotech Limited\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:23:\"Jingle Infotech Limited\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"jil001@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"343733214\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1323:\"Hello, \r\n \r\nFacing issue in IT? \r\n \r\nJIL, an IT services company providing innovative & cost-effective Business Solutions, offering its high-quality commercially viable services in a number of service areas: \r\n \r\n#1 Mail Server Solutions like GSuite, Zimbra many more \r\n#2 SSL Solutions \r\n#3 Email Creative&#047; Brochure Designing \r\n#4 Customized Software Development like Lead Management, Quotation Management \r\n#5 Digital Marketing &#047; Social Media Post Designs \r\n#6 Cloud Hosting \r\n#7 Cloud Security Solutions for Web Applications like WordPress, Magento \r\n#8 E-Commerce Solutions \r\n#9 Web Design &#047; Development \r\n \r\nWe would be happy to provide you with references, work done by us, who could prove JIL reliability, professionalism & quality of work. Can we have the name of the concerned person in your organization so that I can have a talk with him. \r\n \r\nIt will be beneficial for both of us if we both become no obligation partners where you refer us to your friends&#047; know persons who are looking for IT Solutions \r\n \r\nLooking forward to establish mutually beneficial cooperation with your organisation. Assuring you our best services at all times \r\n \r\nThanking you for your valuable time. \r\n \r\nRegards \r\nJIL Team \r\nProfile: https:&#047;&#047;www.jingleinfotech.com&#047;ebook&#047; \r\n \r\n+91 9810143160\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-21 11:20:51'),
(623, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Divakar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"K\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"divakar60@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919845725141\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-21 11:24:51'),
(624, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"sanjay\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"sanjay.kumar1983@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9789044859\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:165:\"I wanted to know , instead of PMS do you have advisory services? \r\nNot for the daily trading call, it is for long term investment but ticket size is less than 25lac.\";}', '2019-07-22 08:57:29'),
(625, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:9:\"Joshuamof\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Joshuamof\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"support@legalpl.net\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"145813282\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:685:\"This is Robert Kowalski from LegalPL Company from Poland-Warsaw (Europe). \r\nIn this mail sending you special our offer about immigration services to Europe: \r\n1. Work 1 Year Visa to Poland (Work Visa+Work Permit); \r\n2. Study in Poland (Study 1 Year Visa); \r\n3. Business Immigration to Poland (Business 1 Year Visa); \r\nMostly our clients from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, China. \r\nIf you are interesting in our services, please contact with us in WhatsUp&#047;Viber&#047;Telegram  +48 793 636 986 or write me: r.kowalski@legalpl.net \r\nThank you, \r\nBest Regards, \r\nRobert Kowalski, \r\nLegalPL Company\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-22 11:44:49'),
(626, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjiv\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Bhambri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"sanjivbhambri@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9821051315\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:89:\"I would like to read your newsletter, will it be possible for you to send me one please .\";}', '2019-07-23 03:55:29'),
(627, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:95:\"There is charming  offers although victory. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NKmebk\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-23 07:26:11'),
(628, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Mhit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Ajit\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:11:\"d@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"1234567890\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:4:\"test\";}', '2019-07-23 10:52:52'),
(629, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:13:\"Radhakrishnan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Natarajan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"rnatarajan67@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"+4915782141255\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:161:\" I am interested in knowing more details of your PMS scheme. Appreciate if you can forward details on my email. Do you also provide this service for NRI clients \";}', '2019-07-23 13:09:25'),
(630, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Pankaj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"pankajgupta66@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9739004186\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:40:\"Would like to know about your PMS scheme\";}', '2019-07-23 14:22:31'),
(631, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"gopal\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"nagpaul\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"gopal.nagpal@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9870495509\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-23 17:31:15'),
(632, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Mohan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Pathak \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"mohanmpathak@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820009117\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:93:\"Would be keen to know details of your portfolio management scheme from long term perspective \";}', '2019-07-23 17:39:47'),
(633, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Mahesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Shenoy\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"shenoy2580@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9972567060\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:113:\"I am interested in your PMS services. Please reach out to me on Saturday 27th Jul. \r\n\r\nThanks and Regards, Mahesh\";}', '2019-07-23 17:53:22'),
(634, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Saurabh \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Sharma \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"saurabh_66@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9850625744\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Would like to understand about your PMS services, past performance, investment and exit strategy \";}', '2019-07-24 07:17:38'),
(635, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Pushparaj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Paul pandian\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"ppushparaj2012@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09324339985\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:67:\"I would like to know about PMS & any other products for investment.\";}', '2019-07-24 08:58:46'),
(636, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:14:\"Chandrashekhar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Khobare\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"utsav.1604@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9731570020\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:55:\"Pls contact me between 10:00 am to 11:00 am by tomorrow\";}', '2019-07-24 15:00:03'),
(637, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:14:\"Chandrashekhar\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Khobare\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"utsav.1604@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9731570020\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:42:\"Pls do call inbetween 10:00 am to 11:00 am\";}', '2019-07-24 15:05:26'),
(638, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Hemant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Modi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"goldcastind2005@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919820142863\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-24 15:08:16'),
(639, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Hemant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Modi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"goldcastind2005@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919820142863\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-24 15:08:53'),
(640, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:1:\"R\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"pvrode@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9769351550\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Required information about PMS \";}', '2019-07-25 08:14:56');
INSERT INTO `mr_db7_forms` (`form_id`, `form_post_id`, `form_value`, `form_date`) VALUES
(641, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"R\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"pvrode@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9769351550\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Required information about PMS \";}', '2019-07-25 08:15:53'),
(642, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"R\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"pvrode@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9769351550\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Required information about PMS \";}', '2019-07-25 08:15:54'),
(643, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Ashutosh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Bohra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"ashutoshbohra1528@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9870432911\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:93:\"I am interested in investing in the CC PMS. I would like to get a meeting regarding the same.\";}', '2019-07-25 09:14:45'),
(644, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"EddieKem\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"EddieKem\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"support@monkeydigital.co\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"117343455\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:584:\"What will we do to increase your DA? \r\n \r\nOur Plan is very simple yet very effective. We have researched all available sources and gained access to thousands of High DA domains that are directly indexed and re-crawled by Moz Robots on each update. So, we will build and index: \r\n \r\n- 5000 DA30+ backlinks \r\n- 2500 dofollow from high PA pages \r\n- 1000 unique domains links with high DA scores \r\n \r\nstart boosting ranks and SEO metrics with our plan today: \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;monkeydigital.co&#047;product&#047;moz-da-seo-plan&#047; \r\n \r\nBest regards \r\nMike \r\nmonkeydigital.co@gmail.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-25 09:57:05'),
(645, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Ranga\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Balakrishnan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"rangs77@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820287968\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:428:\"Hi There\r\n\r\nI&#039;m a middle aged IT Professional living in Bangalore. Came across your PMS service and was particularly impressed with Coffee Can Investing approach that you bring to bear for your clients.\r\n\r\nI&#039;m keen to know more about your Investment philosophy and would like to have a No obligation discussion with your team.\r\n\r\nYou can reach me on my Contact number provided here.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nRanga\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nRanga\";}', '2019-07-25 10:31:15'),
(646, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Nitin\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Chaudhari\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"nitinchaudhari@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919860008264\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:77:\"I am looking to move out my MF portfolio to a PMS to generate higher returns.\";}', '2019-07-25 13:04:26'),
(647, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Sachiien\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Gadade\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"sachiiengadade@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9076497066\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:199:\"Dear Sir\r\nI am a Business Partner of Motilal Oswal in Mumbai and i want to be Distributor for PMS with your renowned company.\r\nSo please let me know the formalities for the same.\r\nThanks and Regards \";}', '2019-07-26 05:09:03'),
(648, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Subbarama\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Rao\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"subbaramarising@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9182216383\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:418:\"Hi,\r\nI want to avail your services for an initial investment of 25laks.\r\nI understand that you invest in safe large cap stocks. However , are the returns from such companies better than the returns from small cap stocks ? If so how much variation in returns is noticed between the two kinds of investment mentioned above ?\r\nYour answers would facilitate an early decision from my side.\r\nRegards\r\nSubbaramarao.\r\n26-7-19\";}', '2019-07-26 09:23:30'),
(649, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Dr Pratap\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Parmar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"drpratapparmar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9825215767\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:64:\"Interested in PMS \r\nHolding PMS of MOSL \r\nWishing to switch over\";}', '2019-07-26 10:37:27'),
(650, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"amit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"gupta\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"amit@amitarun.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810414035\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-26 11:18:36'),
(651, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"amit\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"gupta\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"amit@amitarun.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9810414035\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:36:\"Please share details of PMS services\";}', '2019-07-26 11:19:11'),
(652, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Rajiv \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Khetan \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"swastik88@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9321038955\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:46:\"I will like to know about PMS and its workings\";}', '2019-07-26 12:19:18'),
(653, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Amar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"B\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"bukkeamarnath@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:15:\"+1 954 675 5842\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:55:\"Hi\r\nAre you offering PMS for NRI (USA) based investors?\";}', '2019-07-26 19:20:12'),
(654, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Eric\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Jones\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"eric@talkwithcustomer.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"416-385-3200\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1985:\"Hello marcellus.in,\r\n\r\nPeople ask, “why does TalkWithCustomer work so well?”\r\n\r\nIt’s simple.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer enables you to connect with a prospective customer at EXACTLY the Perfect Time.\r\n\r\n- NOT one week, two weeks, three weeks after they’ve checked out your website marcellus.in.\r\n- NOT with a form letter style email that looks like it was written by a bot.\r\n- NOT with a robocall that could come at any time out of the blue.\r\n\r\nTalkWithCustomer connects you to that person within seconds of THEM asking to hear from YOU.\r\n\r\nThey kick off the conversation.\r\n\r\nThey take that first step.\r\n\r\nThey ask to hear from you regarding what you have to offer and how it can make their life better. \r\n\r\nAnd it happens almost immediately. In real time. While they’re still looking over your website marcellus.in, trying to make up their mind whether you are right for them.\r\n\r\nWhen you connect with them at that very moment it’s the ultimate in Perfect Timing – as one famous marketer put it, “you’re entering the conversation already going on in their mind.”\r\n\r\nYou can’t find a better opportunity than that.\r\n\r\nAnd you can’t find an easier way to seize that chance than TalkWithCustomer. \r\n\r\nCLICK HERE http:&#047;&#047;www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive and see what a difference “Perfect Timing” can make to your business.\r\n\r\nSincerely,\r\nEric\r\n\r\nPS:  If you’re wondering whether NOW is the perfect time to try TalkWithCustomer, ask yourself this:\r\n“Will doing what I’m already doing now produce up to 100X more leads?”\r\nBecause those are the kinds of results we know TalkWithCustomer can deliver.  \r\nIt shouldn’t even be a question, especially since it will cost you ZERO to give it a try. \r\nCLICK HERE http:&#047;&#047;www.talkwithcustomer.com to start your free 14-day test drive today.\r\n\r\nIf you&#039;d like to unsubscribe click here http:&#047;&#047;liveserveronline.com&#047;talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\r\n\";}', '2019-07-26 23:25:03'),
(655, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Dr Navubha\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Sodha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"njilubha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9825384958\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:31:\"Would like invest for long term\";}', '2019-07-27 07:45:08'),
(656, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:106:\"Invest is  a bonzer  volunteer in relocate of victory. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NUTGfE\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-27 08:35:48'),
(657, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:13:\"Abdul Khadeer\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Khaleefa\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"akhaleefa@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"900 000 5771\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:261:\"Interested to invest 10 lakhs for a period which makes it 100 crores whatever time it takes preferably 30 years for my three children for their retirement. They are between 24 to 30 years of age. Need your guidance to achieve this objective. Thanks and regards.\";}', '2019-07-27 13:45:06'),
(658, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vikas\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Malhotra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"vikasmalhotra6@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9639311656\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"I want to take your services for building equity portfolio.\";}', '2019-07-28 06:06:57'),
(659, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Vaibhav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Vashistha\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"vaibhav.vashistha10@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9530400058\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:187:\"Are marico,asian paints and pidilite industries in the same league of being consistent compounders and can one invest in them in sip mode at this juncture keeping in mind the valuations .\";}', '2019-07-28 12:25:23'),
(660, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Anupam\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Pradhan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:27:\"anupampradhan2003@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9587013700\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:20:\"want to invest money\";}', '2019-07-28 16:54:16'),
(661, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"makhariya\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:30:\"wealth.management@iventures.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"7013199688\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:344:\"Dear Team Marcellus,\r\nGreetings\r\n\r\nWe are a private wealth management firm based out of Gurgoan, managing relationships across SME&#039;s and Families.\r\n\r\nAs a part of our AIF offering, we would like to consider your product and would like to learn about it for empanelment.\r\n\r\nWe request you to kindly get back on the same.\r\n\r\nThanks & Regards\";}', '2019-07-29 04:52:47'),
(662, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Varun\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"potbhare\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"varun.potbhare@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+974 50593098\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:226:\"Dear Saurabh,\r\n\r\nI am Varun Potbhare and currently stay in Doha, Qatar.  I would be interested in PMS services and would like to discuss the same with Marcellus.  \r\n\r\nLet me know a convenient time. \r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nVarun Potbhare\";}', '2019-07-29 05:24:22'),
(663, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"Jameseagew\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"JameseagewXN\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:18:\"loreecet@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"84925154795\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:97:\"Hot girls looking for sex in your city: http:&#047;&#047;quoremigen.tk&#047;hyv3?&mjaek=WqXO9XEZA\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-29 08:17:07'),
(664, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"David\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Warner\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"david.warner@ubs.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"0207 567 3637\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:414:\"Hello, \r\n\r\nI am contacting you as one of our clients wants to invest into one of your funds however, before we can look to set the investment up on our platform, I need to confirm that there is no trail commission (Retrocession) paid back to UBS.\r\n\r\nTherefore, please can you confirm if this is the case on the below ISINs:\r\n\r\nMU0403S00362\r\nMU0403S00370\r\n\r\nI look forward to hearing from you soon.\r\n\r\nBest\r\nDavid\r\n\";}', '2019-07-29 08:34:40'),
(665, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Shantanu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Tavargeri\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"shantanut@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9821219595\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"I&#039;m interested to know about your PMS offering. Thanks\";}', '2019-07-29 10:30:00'),
(666, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"lingamneni\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"ramesh babu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"lramesh.babu@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8008166441\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:87:\"I am looking to invest in PMS. Please let me know the details of consistent compounders\";}', '2019-07-29 10:34:31'),
(667, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Kartyk\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Srinivas\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"kartyk@anuvawealth.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845531680\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:167:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nCan I have more details about your PMS offerings and if you can share your contact details? \r\n\r\nThanks & Regards\r\nKartyk \r\nCo-founder Anuva Wealth Advisors LLP \";}', '2019-07-29 11:10:25'),
(668, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Kartyk\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:8:\"Srinivas\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"kartyk@anuvawealth.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845531680\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:167:\"Hi,\r\n\r\nCan I have more details about your PMS offerings and if you can share your contact details? \r\n\r\nThanks & Regards\r\nKartyk \r\nCo-founder Anuva Wealth Advisors LLP \";}', '2019-07-29 11:10:25'),
(669, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Aadipta\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Ghosh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"aadipta.ghosh@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9007833351\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:41:\"I would like to know about your products.\";}', '2019-07-29 12:35:47'),
(670, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Uday \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Tulsyan \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"Udaytulsyan@yahoo.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9748453223\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-07-29 12:47:58'),
(671, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Gururaj\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Laxmayya\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"gururajl@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:12:\"919845338567\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Please contact. Need more info\";}', '2019-07-29 15:24:55'),
(672, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Amit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Upadhye\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"avoidblindspots@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971525641768\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:124:\"Hello,\r\nWould like to understand more about your PMS. Appreciate, if you share the details via email.\r\n\r\nBest regards,\r\nAmit\";}', '2019-07-29 19:38:03'),
(673, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Jamie\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Laila\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"Durousseau658@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:14:\"(219) 477-0619\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:836:\"Do you have any Facebook page,YouTube video, Instagram profile or simply a Website? Do you want to get more likes&#047;fans,followers,views or votes fast. We can promote and increase your social media presence affoardably and fast. \r\n \r\nPackages: \r\n \r\n1) 4,000 Facebook Fans&#047;Likes($99)    = Order at:- https:&#047;&#047;reputationbunker.com&#047;facebook.html \r\n2) 25,000 YouTube Views($50)         = Order at:- https:&#047;&#047;reputationbunker.com&#047;ytviews.html \r\n3) 1,000 Instagram Followers($30)    = Order at:- https:&#047;&#047;reputationbunker.com&#047;instagram.html \r\n \r\n \r\nYou can also order smaller or bigger package from our official website. \r\n \r\nDon&#039;t reply to this mail.We don&#039;t monitor inbox. \r\n \r\nThank You \r\n \r\n \r\nNote: - If this is not your interest, don&#039;t worry, we will not email you again.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-07-30 03:35:00'),
(674, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Shailendra \";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Ashar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:26:\"Shailendra.ashar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9821426012\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"I want to know more about the company \";}', '2019-07-30 06:46:24'),
(675, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Ramendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"kr_ramendra@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"7702011001\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:114:\"Hi, I would like to understand the PMS services offered by Marcellus and would like to invest. \r\nRegards\r\nRamendra\";}', '2019-07-30 07:23:44'),
(676, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Puneet\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Agarwal\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"puneet@banyanfa.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9867335560\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:230:\"Hi,\r\nI am looking out to expand PMS offerings for my clients. Could you please get in touch with me so that I can understand more about your PMS options and understand possible distribution options for your PMS.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nPuneet\";}', '2019-07-30 17:27:01'),
(677, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Klaus\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Lindt\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"klaus.lindt@googlemail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:14:\"(85) 8391-4351\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:178:\"Receive tons of high converting visitors delivered to your website for less than $38. Would you like to learn more? Reply to this email address for details: emma5885fro@gmail.com\";}', '2019-07-31 00:53:21'),
(678, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:1:\"J\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:12:\"e@jha.net.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820443530\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:39:\"Would like to know more about your PMS \";}', '2019-07-31 12:49:24'),
(679, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Krishna\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"J\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:12:\"e@jha.net.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820443530\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:38:\"Would like to know more about your PMS\";}', '2019-07-31 12:49:57'),
(680, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"karan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"garg\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"karangarg@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919956023333\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:61:\"dear rakshit ji,\r\nhi looking for investing in pms options\r\n\r\n\";}', '2019-07-31 13:05:21'),
(681, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"A.B.\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Misra\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"amiyamisra@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9833155395\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:30:\"Pls contact for PMS discussion\";}', '2019-07-31 17:16:52'),
(682, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Samir\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Pinto\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"samir.promotion@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9035131709\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"I would like to know more about investing in your PMS?\";}', '2019-08-01 09:54:57'),
(683, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Sanjoy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mallik\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"smallik0509@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919322866082\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"I am a NRI and am interested in information about your offerings \";}', '2019-08-01 13:14:40'),
(684, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Amlan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:13:\"Bhattacharjya\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:15:\"ab@brandeyes.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810036501\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:93:\"Please have someone connect with me on Monday August 5 to speak about my potential investment\";}', '2019-08-01 13:36:38'),
(685, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"ANIL\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"KUMAR\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"krishnalending@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9362100950\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"would like to invest a small portion for a long term return\";}', '2019-08-01 13:39:50'),
(686, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Madhu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Eadara\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"madhu.eadara@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9959572909\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:222:\"Hi, heard about your investment services. I am looking for a PMS or an AIF investment opportunites and wanted to know if you are taking new investors. I am based in Hyderabad you can call me at 99595-72909. Thanks, Madhu. \";}', '2019-08-01 13:59:06'),
(687, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"217448616\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:92:\"Look at a suitable  present against win. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NKgxu8\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-01 14:00:54'),
(688, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Manohar\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:14:\"Thangellapalli\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"manhr.rao@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"07326929920\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Im interested in PMS product and would like to know more details.\";}', '2019-08-01 15:53:34'),
(689, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Amit \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Nautiyal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"nautiyal_a@rediffmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09999655066\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:57:\"Would like to know about PMS and other product offerings.\";}', '2019-08-01 15:58:43'),
(690, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Saurav\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Dandapat\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:29:\"saurav2190.dandapat@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8093406167\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-08-01 17:58:47'),
(691, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Miltonneoms\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"Miltonneoms\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"contact@fullbax.info\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:9:\"323175212\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:989:\"Our company https:&#047;&#047;www.fullbax.com deals with import from China at our clients&#039; request. \r\nWe deal with everything from A to Z: \r\n- we search for a supplier; \r\n- we check the merchandise in terms of customs and tax; \r\n- we visit factories; \r\n- we control the production; \r\n- we are present during the loading; \r\n- we send the merchandise from China; \r\n- we custom clear the merchandise in Poland; \r\n- we deliver the merchandise from the port to Your warehouse; \r\n \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.fullbax.com does not only provide the above mentioned services, please visit our website. \r\n \r\nWe have competitive rates, we also work with smaller companies. \r\n \r\nIf you have ever thought about importing from China and you do not know how to go about it or if you import from China and need help at some stage, we are available with our services. \r\n \r\nWrite to us, and we will answer all your questions. It does not cost anything! \r\n \r\nFeel welcome \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.fullbax.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-02 03:53:51'),
(692, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Parth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Patel\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"parth.p.patel57@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"17322084706\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:67:\"Wanted to see if you provide an account type where NRIs can invest.\";}', '2019-08-02 04:19:30'),
(693, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"ROHIT\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"CHOUDHARY\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"rconline@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09980162334\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:59:\"Need information on the PMS product that you have. Thanks. \";}', '2019-08-02 05:00:07'),
(694, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Shaneel\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Shah\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"shaneel@dhanvruksh.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9879133999\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:101:\"We wish to affiliate with you for your PMS products for our HNI clients based in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. \";}', '2019-08-02 05:26:53'),
(695, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:11:\"Arihant lal\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"I\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"arihantlal87@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9952230727\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:79:\"Want to start a quality investment which can be a consistent and true in value \";}', '2019-08-02 06:58:15'),
(696, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Gopal\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"Bhatia\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"gjbhatia@tatapower.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9987632412\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:65:\"Please let me know the minimum amount of investment in your PMS. \";}', '2019-08-02 13:30:43'),
(697, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"AMIT\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"MUKHERJEE\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"mamit_10@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9892706384\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:126:\"I am an investor in Share market and MF. Senior Citizen. Need financial expert advise on investments.\r\nRegards\r\nAmit Mukherjee\";}', '2019-08-02 15:40:49'),
(698, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"PANDURANGA\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:11:\"KUMARJIGUDA\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:21:\"KUMARJIGUDA@GMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9008855333\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:218:\"Hi I am based out of Bangalore. Currently I distribute Mutual Funds. I am also pursuing CFP program.  I worked for Wipro for 25 years and now got into financial services. I am interested in distributing PMS products.  \";}', '2019-08-02 17:18:01'),
(699, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Karan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Kothari\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:33:\"karankothari.securities@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9028974984\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:564:\"Respected Sir,\r\n\r\nI would like to apply for the job of Research Analyst at your Financial Institution.\r\n\r\nI have been involved in the Stock Market from last 5+ Years.\r\n\r\nI am an Engineering Graduate and recently I received the NISM Series XV : Research Analyst Certificate and my Registration Number is NISM-201900055241.\r\n\r\nI request you to please let me know if there is any opportunity at your end.\r\n\r\nAwaiting for your reply.\r\n\r\nAlso Please find attached my Resume and Certificate.\r\n\r\nThankyou.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nKaran Kothari\r\nNashik,\r\nMaharashtra\r\n+91 90289 74984\";}', '2019-08-03 02:20:50'),
(700, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Rajat\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Jain\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"j_rajat@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9818645150\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:185:\"Dear Saurabh,\r\n\r\nI would like to be contacted for managing my portfolio, thereby availing your PMS. I believe in long term investments.\r\n\r\nPlease contact undersigned.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nRajat\";}', '2019-08-03 04:34:02'),
(701, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Avi\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Aryan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"avi.aryan123@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8581817978\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"Interested in PMS services\";}', '2019-08-03 06:00:54'),
(702, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vibhu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Garg\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"vibhugarg@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9711977441\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:75:\"I would like to enquire about your PMS Offerings. Please share the details.\";}', '2019-08-03 07:48:35'),
(703, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"Manu\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Gupta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"send_manu@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971555957249\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:157:\"Hi There,\r\nI am an NRI based in Dubai. \r\nWould like to know more about various products that Marcellus offers, past performance, and fee structure.\r\nRegards.\";}', '2019-08-03 09:17:57'),
(704, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Gaurav \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Nagarkar \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"gauravnagarkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9890701942\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:122:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nI was interested in knowing the kind of services you offer. Please let me know the details.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nGaurav \";}', '2019-08-03 09:39:22'),
(705, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Gaurav \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:9:\"Nagarkar \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"gauravnagarkar@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9890701942\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:122:\"Hello,\r\n\r\nI was interested in knowing the kind of services you offer. Please let me know the details.\r\n\r\nRegards,\r\nGaurav \";}', '2019-08-03 09:39:25'),
(706, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Anurag\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Bisaria\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"imme123@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9811379817\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:11:\"Interested \";}', '2019-08-03 10:05:27'),
(707, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"SOUMITRA\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:6:\"PATHAK\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"soumitra.pathak74@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:26:\"9332055558&#047;7076297488\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:401:\"Sir, I am investment adviser having more than 100 AUM in Mf distribution business and my age is now 45.  my place of residence  and also place of work  is Durgapur, Paschim Bardhaman district in the state of West Bengal, I have NISM Series V A: Mutual Fund Distributors Certification  and NISM Series-XV: Research Analyst Certification . sir kindly enlighten me how can I work with your great company \";}', '2019-08-04 04:36:23'),
(708, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:12:\"marcellus.in\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:14:\"marcellus.inLS\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82427182975\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:105:\"Here is  a uncaring  contribution in standing of you. marcellus.in \r\nhttp:&#047;&#047;bit.ly&#047;2NOi16w\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-04 05:04:59'),
(709, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Kartik\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Ramakrishnan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:17:\"kartikr@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9886704595\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:207:\"Hello, I’m interested in exploring how you can support me with your investments. Sashipal Reddy of Stewart Investors is a good friend of mine, and recommended that I get in touch with you. \r\nThanks, Kartik\";}', '2019-08-04 06:05:54'),
(710, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:4:\"Anil\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Kumar\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"anilkumar.m@med.ge.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9845542328\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:129:\"I am looking for investments in equity for long term 3 to 5 years. I am exploring the option of availing services in this regard.\";}', '2019-08-04 07:47:25'),
(711, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Vivek\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Singh\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"petmongrels@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9845232929\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:55:\"I am looking to invest around 25 lakhs. Please contact.\";}', '2019-08-04 08:10:35'),
(712, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Satish\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:9:\"Kapadnis \";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"kapadnis3@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8888933336\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:170:\"Everything is good about Dr.Lal Path lab excellent high valuation I.e. high PE(45) PB of 9.7.\r\nShould we still buy or what&#039;s the explanation for this high valuation \";}', '2019-08-04 08:46:49'),
(713, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:4:\"AMIT\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"KUMAR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"KUMARAM73@HOTMAIL.COM\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9899301039\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:220:\"I am looking to invest in a PMS. I am based in Gurgaon and can be reached at 9899301039. Please get someone to send me a message on my email or on my number (please avoid calling directly) and I will set up time to meet.\";}', '2019-08-04 12:37:59'),
(714, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:14:\"SREEDHAR REDDY\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"INDLA\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"isreedharreddy@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9849863349\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:270:\"I am Distributor of Financial Products like Mutual Funds, PMS and Insurance . I gone through the News letters and understand your investment philosophy.I would like to offer your product to my clients. Can you please share the revenue sharing details. Thanks in advance.\";}', '2019-08-04 17:25:17'),
(715, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"C Ratna\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"M\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"ratna_rvr2007@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"08249410145\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:226:\"Can the 25 lakh min. requirement can be shared by 3 family members?I stay in other state so the entire process can be done online? and finally the fee which is performance based is based on virtual gains at the end of each FY?\";}', '2019-08-05 04:39:10'),
(716, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Subbarao\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Taduvayi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"subbu2407@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9550042692\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:93:\"Hi, \r\nI would like to know your pms programs and it&#039;s charges. Please give me the call. \";}', '2019-08-05 05:04:35'),
(717, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Sidharth\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Jain\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:20:\"sidharth19@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9811041711\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:132:\"Please share your product offerings and minimum investment amount\r\n\r\nAlso, can we subscribe to your newsletters?\r\n\r\nThanks\r\nSidharth\";}', '2019-08-05 08:32:33'),
(718, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Tania\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Nambiar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"nambiar.tania@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9573227408\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:151:\"Please add mail email id to your mailing group for updates on .....Three longs & three shorts......Insights.....Newsletter.\r\n\r\nThanks & Regards,\r\nTania\";}', '2019-08-05 09:01:48'),
(719, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Karan\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Pradhan\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:24:\"getdigital0422@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:12:\"+61414907577\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:281:\"Hello, I am an NRI based in Australia. After watching  several of Saurabh Mukherji&#039;s videos on youtube I would like to know that if I was to invest Rs 1 crore with Marcellus for 10 years then can I expect a  return of 10 crores at the end of the 10 year period?\r\n\r\nThank you. \";}', '2019-08-06 00:13:13'),
(720, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Kalyan\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Arja\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"arjakalyan@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9949111585\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:42:\"I want to understand your products better.\";}', '2019-08-06 03:46:33'),
(721, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Ramesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mudgal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:24:\"rameshmudgal@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919972756769\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:198:\"Hi,\r\nI would like to know more about your portfolio management services for NRIs. I am reachable on India number till 20th August and thereafter on UAE number +971552963820.\r\nRegards.\r\nRamesh Mudgal\";}', '2019-08-06 12:48:17'),
(722, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"Siddharth\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:3:\"Rao\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:26:\"siddharthrao1985@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"09701733166\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-08-06 16:00:52'),
(723, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sanjeev\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Vadeyar\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"svadeyar61@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9890755417\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:157:\"I would like to know more in details about your PMS especially how many different PMS’s you have, do you have tailor made portfolios for each and charges. \";}', '2019-08-06 19:04:22'),
(724, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"RonaldGenue\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:13:\"RonaldGenueCJ\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"lathadivya75@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"83668676558\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:1231:\"Welcome to Brandshelpline – A site dedicated to becoming the leading marketing resource on the web. \r\n \r\nMy name is Pranuthi Chandra and i am a marketing professional with a zeal for learning and getting better in my trade day by day. As Philip Kotler said “Marketing takes days to learn, But a lifetime to become a master”. With the aim of satisying my readers, my objective is to become an Expert in the field of marketing and make Brands HelpLine the best and most resourceful marketing portal on the web. \r\n \r\nIn this fast paced life, this blog of mine is an effort to stay in touch with the world of marketing. Nothing better than to read a topic you like and write it in your own words. Believe me!! The things you write, is the stuff that will stick to your mind. Hence i make sure i update my readers with daily tutorial in marketing and the latest marketing news. \r\n \r\nYou can follow our daily updates by subscribing to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. The talented ones can also submit an article as Guest Authors and lend me a hand.  Do stay in touch and feel free to contact me or write to me anytime. \r\n \r\nP.S – I would love it if you can contribute to Brandshelpline.com \r\n \r\nPranuthi Chandra\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-06 21:28:45'),
(725, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"MarioLah\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:10:\"MarioLahVR\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"raphaeRedrago@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"82248471992\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:839:\"Ciao!  marcellus.in \r\n \r\nWe suggesting \r\n \r\nSending your commercial offer through the feedback form which can be found on the sites in the contact section. Feedback forms are filled in by our software and the captcha is solved. The profit of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This method increases the chances that your message will be open. \r\n \r\nOur database contains more than 25 million sites around the world to which we can send your message. \r\n \r\nThe cost of one million messages 49 USD \r\n \r\nFREE TEST mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your choice. \r\n \r\n \r\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nContact us. \r\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \r\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \r\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com \r\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-06 23:23:32'),
(726, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Saumya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:7:\"Meattle\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"saumya@moduleone.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9810064710\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:60:\"Would like to know more about your offering and track record\";}', '2019-08-07 02:16:36'),
(727, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"venkatreddy\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"mareddy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"sruvenmareddy@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9951609156\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:50:\"Requested to arrange details for the distribution \";}', '2019-08-07 09:57:26'),
(728, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:10:\"HarryGroog\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:12:\"HarryGroogGS\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:27:\"edwardm@lioncourtcrypto.net\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"83387831663\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:344:\"We buy all crypto currencies at good rate, with reasonable commission between sellers and the mandates. \r\n \r\nContact us with the informations below if you are or have a potential seller. \r\n \r\nTel: +353 1 4378345 \r\nFax: +353 1 6865354 \r\nEmail: edwardm@lioncourtcrypto.com \r\n \r\nThank you, \r\nCrypto currencies Purchase Department, \r\nEdward Molina.\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-07 10:24:43'),
(729, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sanchit\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"Garg\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sanchitgarg5@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9584942995\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:188:\"Hi\r\nIs there any way smaller retail investors can get associated with you? Currently I cannot commit 25L but was quite interested in Marcellus&#039;s advisory services. \r\n\r\nThanks\r\nSanchit\";}', '2019-08-07 10:25:41'),
(730, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"ANAND\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"GARG\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:17:\"garg.anand@itc.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9550867766\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:34:\"Pls call after 6 pm or before 10am\";}', '2019-08-07 12:13:32'),
(731, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Narendra\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"jain\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"narendra8@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919820075150\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:51:\"I AM INTERESTED IN YOUR PMS ,PL CONTACT ME. THANKS.\";}', '2019-08-07 13:26:50'),
(732, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:8:\"Prashant\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:12:\"Pandarathil \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"prashant.mrch16@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+971564406852\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"Interested in PMS. Thanks \";}', '2019-08-07 17:16:00'),
(733, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"KIRTI\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"MARU\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"kirtimaru@augain.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9930012682\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:86:\"hi would like to know about ur pms .What is the ticket size and empanelment procedure.\";}', '2019-08-08 05:36:34'),
(734, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:3:\"Dev\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"Toprani\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:19:\"dev@querencia.co.in\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9820128379\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:228:\"Hi, I am an independent investment advisor. I consult with some HNI&#039;s and Family offices. I would like to come down and meet with your team and review your PMS for my investors. Request you to revert with a convenient time.\";}', '2019-08-08 06:18:52'),
(735, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"anurag\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:4:\"wahi\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"anuragwahi@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9820268045\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:45:\"Would like to explore for investments in PMS.\";}', '2019-08-08 08:19:02'),
(736, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:7:\"Sandeep\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mehta\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"sandeepsmehta@outlook.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:120:\"Hello, \r\nNRI investor already part of PMS schemes in India. Wanting to know more about Marcellus PMS.\r\nRegards,\r\nSandeep\";}', '2019-08-09 02:04:42'),
(737, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:8:\"Premalal\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Kotha\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"premalal007@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9848598390\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:52:\"Hi\r\nPlease reach me 9848598390.\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nPremalal\";}', '2019-08-09 02:41:18'),
(738, 28, 'a:7:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"Hollisinelf\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:13:\"HollisinelfEU\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:34:\"contacts@businesswebconnection.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:11:\"86799798811\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:521:\"Are you using the internet to its greatest potential?  We are professional web developers that can help you get the most benefit from the web and make your site interactive with your users and clients, making your business more efficient and powerful than your competition. \r\nIf you are just looking to upgrade your web site to current technology or give your business a boost with data integration, we can guide you to success. \r\nhttps:&#047;&#047;www.businesswebconnection.com&#047; \r\ncontacts@businesswebconnection.com\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"Submit\";}', '2019-08-09 04:56:21'),
(739, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:5:\"Rahul\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:4:\"Sahu\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:25:\"rahulsahu19bsss@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"8319869295\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:54:\"Want to meet Relationship Manager for distributorship.\";}', '2019-08-09 17:44:36'),
(740, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Varun\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Mittal\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"varun.mittal.83@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"+6593866582\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:164:\"Hello team.. I wanted to understand if Marcellus manages client portfolio (on a discretionary) basis. Please let me know as I am interested to put my funds. Thanks \";}', '2019-08-10 01:59:10'),
(741, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:9:\"KJ MOHAN \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Mohan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:18:\"sumo1913@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+919945090559\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:145:\"Hello, \r\n\r\nI was looking forward to investing in a PMS scheme run by Mr Saurabh Mukherjea.\r\n\r\nPlease contact me ASAP.\r\n\r\nWarm Regards,\r\nKJ Mohan \";}', '2019-08-10 11:27:13'),
(742, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Avadh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Verma\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"avadhverma@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"6352218504\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:57:\"I&#039;m new to investing and interested in it. Need help\";}', '2019-08-10 11:29:21'),
(743, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:11:\"venkatreddy\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:7:\"mareddy\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"sruvenmareddy@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9951609156\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:63:\"I am interested to work as distributor. Pls share the details. \";}', '2019-08-10 11:33:10'),
(744, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Smitha\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Krishnan\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:25:\"krishnan.smitha@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9042099967\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:90:\"Hi,\r\nI would like to start my investment in Indian stock markets. \r\nThanks\r\nSmitha Krishna\";}', '2019-08-10 14:29:13'),
(745, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:3:\"Joy\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Tharayil\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:21:\"chandri51@hotmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:11:\"08277645250\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:300:\"Dear Mr. Saurabh Mukerjea\r\nWe are Bangalore&#047;US based NRIs. We had been listening to your online presentations for some time. We would like to start a PMS with you and would like to speak with you. We will be in Bangalore from the 20th of August and our Bangalore number is 08277645250. Thank you\";}', '2019-08-10 14:40:46'),
(746, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Amit \";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"Chandak \";s:9:\"email-510\";s:19:\"amit.chandak@itc.in\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9177169789\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:17:\"I am keen in pms \";}', '2019-08-11 09:58:28'),
(747, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Shukla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"shukla.aditya@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+447448658397\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:484:\"Hi..I am looking to invest into PMS with Marcellus. I have some investments in India in mutual funds and want to consolidate them by actually liquidating them and investing with you. I have moved to London recently and before my status changes to NRI, I want to get it done. Can you please share a number and time where I can call to discuss with you on this ? Second, I also want to understand that over and above 25lac, is there some way I can continue to invest in form of an SIP? \";}', '2019-08-11 12:24:07'),
(748, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Navin\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sahni\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"navinsahni@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9582217373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:78:\"Hi,\r\nI am interested in opening a PMS account. Please call me on above number.\";}', '2019-08-11 15:42:43'),
(749, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:12:\"Subrahmanyam\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:1:\"Y\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"ysmanyam2007@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9604915678\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:51:\"I would like to know more details about the Product\";}', '2019-08-11 17:36:28');
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(750, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Aditya\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:6:\"Shukla\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:23:\"shukla.aditya@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"+447448658397\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:377:\"Hi, can you please share a number on which i can call to invest in PMS ? I have been following your team for a long time, in terms of investing philosophy and want to invest my money in your PMS. I currently reside at London but am an Indian national. Want to understand the process of investing in PMS and few other questions related to transfer of money etc. -Regards, Aditya\";}', '2019-08-12 12:37:15'),
(751, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:6:\"Mukesh\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Saini\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:22:\"sainimukesh7@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:13:\"0981 174 4457\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:21:\"looking for PMS funds\";}', '2019-08-12 15:23:36'),
(752, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"Mukesh\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Saini\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:22:\"sainimukesh7@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:13:\"0981 174 4457\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:26:\"Looking for PMS industries\";}', '2019-08-12 15:23:54'),
(753, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:5:\"Navin\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:5:\"Sahni\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"navinsahni@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"9582217373\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:18:\"Pl call me for PMS\";}', '2019-08-12 16:13:05'),
(754, 29, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-604\";s:6:\"PRAVAS\";s:8:\"text-373\";s:8:\"MAJUMDAR\";s:9:\"email-510\";s:20:\"pravas1952@gmail.com\";s:7:\"tel-299\";s:10:\"8777296324\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:94:\"Please inform the minimum amount of investment and also investment by sip can be done. Thanks.\";}', '2019-08-12 17:18:29'),
(755, 28, 'a:6:{s:12:\"cfdb7_status\";s:6:\"unread\";s:8:\"text-996\";s:7:\"Arindam\";s:8:\"text-371\";s:5:\"Mitra\";s:9:\"email-563\";s:23:\"arindammmitra@yahoo.com\";s:7:\"tel-182\";s:10:\"9830848844\";s:12:\"your-message\";s:0:\"\";}', '2019-08-13 05:51:53'),
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(58, 'Fee change form', 'Account Update Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/fee-change-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Fee-change-form.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:25:30', 0, 32),
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(70, 'NRE', 'Account Opening Forms - Little Champs Portfolio (LCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-nre/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-NRE.zip', '2020-04-29 18:33:10', 0, 25),
(71, 'NRO', 'Account Opening Forms - Little Champs Portfolio (LCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-nro/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-NRO.zip', '2020-04-29 18:34:54', 0, 26),
(72, 'Resident', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:23:30', 0, 21),
(73, 'Resident - Foreign National', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-foreign-national-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Foreign-National-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:28:28', 1, 43),
(74, 'HUF', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/huf-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HUF-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:29:29', 1, 45),
(75, 'Corporate', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', ' https://marcellus.in/corporate-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Corporate-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:30:30', 1, 46),
(76, 'LLP', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/llp-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LLP-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:31:25', 1, 47),
(77, 'Partnership', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/partnership-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Partnership-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:32:32', 1, 48),
(78, 'Trust - (Individual Trustee)', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-individual-trustee-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Individual-Trustee-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:33:33', 1, 49),
(79, 'Trust - (Non Individual  Trustee)', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-non-individual-trustee-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Non-Individual-Trustee-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:34:28', 1, 50),
(80, 'Kotak Closure- Ind / Non Ind', 'Account Update Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-closure-ind-nonind/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-Closure-IND-NONIND.pdf', '2020-04-30 12:12:56', 1, 71),
(81, 'Kotak Closure- NRI', 'Account Update Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-closure-nri/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-Closure-NRI.pdf', '2020-04-30 12:13:58', 1, 72),
(82, 'Kotak Closure- NRI', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nr-closure-2/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NR-closure-1.zip', '2020-04-30 12:15:33', 0, 73),
(83, 'HDFC Closure - NRI', 'Account Update Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nr-closure-2/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NR-closure-1.zip', '2020-04-30 12:32:52', 1, 74),
(84, 'HDFC NRI', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nri-sample-prefilled-forms/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NRI-Sample-Prefilled-Forms.pdf', '2020-04-30 22:20:17', 1, 44),
(85, 'Marcellus Investment Advisory - Individual', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/fillable-marcellus-advisory-individual/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Fillable-Marcellus-Advisory-Individual.pdf', '2020-05-06 01:33:36', 0, 95),
(86, 'Marcellus Investment Advisory - Non Individual', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/fillable-marcellus-advisory-non-individual/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Fillable-Marcellus-Advisory-Non-Individual.pdf', '2020-05-06 01:42:09', 0, 96),
(87, 'Resident (ICICI)', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/ccp-resident-individual-icici/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CCP-Resident-Individual-ICICI.zip', '2020-06-09 00:42:36', 1, 2),
(88, 'Resident (Kotak)', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/ccp-resident-individual-kotak/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CCP-Resident-Individual-Kotak.zip', '2020-06-09 00:47:06', 1, 3),
(89, 'Resident (Kotak)', 'Account Opening Forms - Little Champs Portfolio (LCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-resident-individualkotak/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-Resident-IndividualKotak.zip', '2020-06-09 01:57:20', 0, 23),
(90, 'Resident (ICICI)', 'Account Opening Forms - Little Champs Portfolio (LCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-resident-individual-icici/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-Resident-Individual-ICICI.zip', '2020-06-09 02:01:31', 0, 22),
(91, 'Resident (Kotak)', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/sample-ccp-ri-pms-combo-v4-1-kotak-compressed/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Sample-–-CCP-RI-PMS-Combo-V4.1-Kotak-compressed.zip', '2020-06-09 02:30:10', 1, 42),
(92, 'Resident (ICICI)', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms - For Reference', 'https://marcellus.in/sample-ccp-ri-pms-combo-v4-1-icici_compressed/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Sample-CCP-RI-PMS-Combo-V4.1-ICICI_compressed.zip', '2020-06-09 02:32:38', 1, 41),
(93, 'Investor Onboarding Process Note', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/marcellus-pms-investor-onboarding-process-for-partners-v2-0/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Marcellus-PMS-Investor-Onboarding-Process-for-Partners-V2.0.pdf', '2020-06-10 13:22:45', 1, 1),
(94, 'Marcellus Power of Attorney (PoA)', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/marcellus-poa-fillable/', 'https://marcellus.in/marcellus-poa-fillable/', '2020-06-11 18:44:31', 1, 93),
(95, 'CCP PMS Only Form (for existing investors)', 'Account Opening Forms - Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/ccp-ri-pms-v4-1-pms-only/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CCP-RI-PMS-V4.1-PMS-Only.pdf', '2020-06-15 12:13:30', 1, 15),
(96, 'LCP PMS Only Form (for existing investors)', 'Account Opening Forms - Little Champs Portfolio (LCP)', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-ri-pms-v4-1-pms-only/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-RI-PMS-V4.1-PMS-Only.pdf', '2020-06-15 12:16:26', 0, 35);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_download_form_04052020`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_download_form_04052020` (
  `id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `type_of_account` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `type_of_form` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `slug` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `download_file_name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `created_on` timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
  `status` tinyint(4) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1',
  `ordering` int(11) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1'
) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8 COLLATE=utf8_unicode_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_download_form_04052020`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_download_form_04052020` (`id`, `type_of_account`, `type_of_form`, `slug`, `download_file_name`, `created_on`, `status`, `ordering`) VALUES
(42, 'HUF', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/huf-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HUF-CCP.zip', '2020-04-27 04:52:54', 1, 5),
(43, 'Corporate', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/corporate-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Corporate-CCP.zip', '2020-04-27 04:58:53', 1, 6),
(44, 'LLP', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/llp-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LLP-CCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:02:51', 1, 7),
(45, 'Trust - with Individual Trustee', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-individual-trustee-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Individual-Trustee-CCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:11:12', 1, 9),
(46, 'Trust - with Non Individual  Trustee', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-non-individual-trustee-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Non-Individual-Trustee-CCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:15:03', 1, 10),
(47, 'HUF', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/huf-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HUF-LCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:20:02', 1, 15),
(48, 'Trust - with Individual Trustee', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-individual-trustee-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Individual-Trustee-LCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:28:41', 1, 19),
(49, 'Corporate', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/lcp-corporate/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/LCP-Corporate.zip', '2020-04-27 05:31:29', 1, 16),
(50, 'LLP', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/llp-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LLP-LCP.zip', '2020-04-27 05:37:52', 1, 17),
(51, 'Partnership', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/partnership-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Partnership-LCP.zip', '2020-04-27 06:31:13', 1, 18),
(52, 'Trust - with Non Individual  Trustee', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-non-individual-trustee-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Non-Individual-Trustee-LCP.zip', '2020-04-27 06:43:24', 1, 20),
(53, 'Kotak - Ind / Non Ind', 'Account Closure', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-ind-nonind-closure/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-IND-NONIND-Closure.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:14:11', 0, 21),
(54, 'Kotak - NRI', 'Account Closure', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-nri-closure/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-NRI-Closure.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:15:27', 0, 22),
(55, 'HDFC - NR', 'Account Closure', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nr-closure/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NR-closure.zip', '2020-04-27 07:18:09', 0, 23),
(56, 'KYC Update - Kotak', 'Account Update', 'https://marcellus.in/kyc-update-kotak/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KYC-Update-Kotak.zip', '2020-04-27 07:21:34', 1, 30),
(57, 'Change of Distributor', 'Account Update', 'https://marcellus.in/change-of-distributor/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Change-of-Distributor.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:23:33', 1, 31),
(58, 'Fee change form', 'Account Update', 'https://marcellus.in/fee-change-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Fee-change-form.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:25:30', 0, 32),
(59, 'Add/Change Nominee - Kotak', 'Nomination', 'https://marcellus.in/add-change-nominee-kotak/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Add-Change-Nominee-Kotak.zip', '2020-04-27 07:28:13', 0, 27),
(60, 'MARCELLUS FATCA - For Individual', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/marcellus-fatca-for-individual/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MARCELLUS-FATCA-For-Individual.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:29:51', 1, 38),
(61, 'Distributor - Addendum for online access', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/distributor-addendum-for-online-acess/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Distributor-Addendum-for-online-acess.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:31:33', 1, 40),
(62, 'MARCELLUS FATCA-For Non Individual', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/marcellus-fatca-for-non-individual/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MARCELLUS-FATCA-For-Non-Individual.pdf', '2020-04-27 07:33:21', 1, 39),
(63, 'Resident Individual', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-individual-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Individual-CCP.zip', '2020-04-29 17:42:12', 1, 1),
(64, 'Resident Ind - Foreign National', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-foreign-national-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Foreign-National-CCP.zip', '2020-04-29 17:46:41', 1, 2),
(65, 'NRE', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/nre-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NRE-CCP.zip', '2020-04-29 17:49:17', 1, 3),
(66, 'NRO', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/nro-ccp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NRO-CCP.zip', '2020-04-29 17:51:59', 1, 4),
(67, 'Partnership', 'CPP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/partnership-ccp-2/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Partnership-CCP-1.zip', '2020-04-29 18:10:52', 1, 8),
(68, 'Resident Individual', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-individual-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Individual-LCP.zip', '2020-04-29 18:28:46', 1, 11),
(69, 'Resident Ind - Foreign National', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-foreign-national-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Foreign-National-LCP.zip', '2020-04-29 18:31:25', 1, 12),
(70, 'NRE', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/nre-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NRE-LCP.zip', '2020-04-29 18:33:10', 1, 13),
(71, 'NRO', 'LCP Account opening Form', 'https://marcellus.in/nro-lcp/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/NRO-LCP.zip', '2020-04-29 18:34:54', 1, 14),
(72, 'Resident Ind Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:23:30', 1, 21),
(73, 'Resident Ind - Foreign National Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/resident-ind-foreign-national-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Resident-Ind-Foreign-National-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:28:28', 1, 22),
(74, 'HUF Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/huf-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HUF-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:29:29', 1, 24),
(75, 'Corporate Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', ' https://marcellus.in/corporate-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Corporate-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:30:30', 1, 25),
(76, 'LLP - Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/llp-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/LLP-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:31:25', 1, 26),
(77, 'Partnership Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/partnership-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Partnership-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:32:32', 1, 27),
(78, 'Trust - Individual Trustee Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-individual-trustee-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Individual-Trustee-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:33:33', 1, 28),
(79, 'Trust - Non Individual Trustee Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/trust-non-individual-trustee-sample-prefilled-form/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Trust-Non-Individual-Trustee-Sample-Prefilled-Form.pdf', '2020-04-29 19:34:28', 1, 29),
(80, 'Kotak Closure- Ind / Non Ind', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-closure-ind-nonind/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-Closure-IND-NONIND.pdf', '2020-04-30 12:12:56', 1, 35),
(81, 'Kotak Closure- NRI', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/kotak-closure-nri/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-Closure-NRI.pdf', '2020-04-30 12:13:58', 1, 36),
(82, 'Kotak Closure- NRI', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nr-closure-2/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NR-closure-1.zip', '2020-04-30 12:15:33', 0, 37),
(83, 'HDFC Closure - NR', 'Miscellaneous', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nr-closure-2/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NR-closure-1.zip', '2020-04-30 12:32:52', 1, 37),
(84, 'HDFC NRI Sample Prefilled Form', 'Sample (Prefilled) Forms', 'https://marcellus.in/hdfc-nri-sample-prefilled-forms/', 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NRI-Sample-Prefilled-Forms.pdf', '2020-04-30 22:20:17', 1, 23);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_download_form_27042020`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_download_form_27042020` (
  `id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `type_of_account` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `type_of_form` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `download_file_name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8_unicode_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `created_on` timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP,
  `status` tinyint(4) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1',
  `ordering` int(11) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1'
) ENGINE=InnoDB DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8 COLLATE=utf8_unicode_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_download_form_27042020`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_download_form_27042020` (`id`, `type_of_account`, `type_of_form`, `download_file_name`, `created_on`, `status`, `ordering`) VALUES
(1, 'Resident Individual', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '2020-04-14 14:43:41', 1, 1),
(2, 'NRI', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '2020-04-14 14:43:41', 1, 1),
(3, 'HUF', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(4, 'Trust', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(5, 'Corporate', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(6, 'LLP', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(7, 'Resident but Foreign National', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(8, 'Partnership', 'Kotak Closure', 'PMS Closure.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(9, 'Resident Individual', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(10, 'NRI', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(11, 'HUF', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(12, 'Trust', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(13, 'Corporate', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(14, 'LLP', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(15, 'Resident but Foreign National', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(16, 'Partnership', 'Part Redemption', 'Part Redemption- Marcellus.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(17, 'Resident Individual', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(18, 'NRI', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(19, 'HUF', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(20, 'Trust', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(21, 'Corporate', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(22, 'LLP', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(23, 'Resident but Foreign National', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(24, 'Partnership', 'KYC Change', 'KYC Change zip.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(25, 'Resident Individual', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(26, 'NRI', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Non Resident.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(27, 'HUF', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(28, 'Trust', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(29, 'Corporate', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(30, 'LLP', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(31, 'Resident but Foreign National', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(32, 'Partnership', 'Kotak Add Nominee', 'Nomination form Resident.pdf', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(33, 'Resident Individual', 'Acount opening', 'Resident Individual.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(34, 'NRI', 'Acount opening', 'NRI.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(35, 'HUF', 'Acount opening', 'HUF.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(36, 'Trust', 'Acount opening', 'Trust.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(37, 'Corporate', 'Acount opening', 'Corporate.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(38, 'LLP', 'Acount opening', 'LLP.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(39, 'Resident but Foreign National', 'Acount opening', 'RI (foreign national).zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1),
(40, 'Partnership', 'Acount opening', 'Partnership.zip', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 1);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ens_subscribers`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ens_subscribers` (
  `id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `first_name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `last_name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `email` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `comments` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `user_ip` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `date` timestamp NULL DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_actions`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_actions` (
  `contact_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED DEFAULT NULL,
  `message_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED DEFAULT NULL,
  `campaign_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED DEFAULT NULL,
  `type` tinyint(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `count` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `link_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `list_id` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `created_at` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `updated_at` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0'
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_actions`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_actions` (`contact_id`, `message_id`, `campaign_id`, `type`, `count`, `link_id`, `list_id`, `created_at`, `updated_at`) VALUES
(2, NULL, NULL, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1571997143, 1571997143);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_blocked_emails`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_blocked_emails` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `email` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `ip` varchar(45) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `created_on` timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_campaigns`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_campaigns` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `slug` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `type` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `parent_id` int(10) UNSIGNED DEFAULT NULL,
  `parent_type` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `subject` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `body` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `from_name` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `from_email` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `reply_to_name` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `reply_to_email` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `categories` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `list_ids` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `base_template_id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `status` tinyint(4) NOT NULL,
  `meta` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `deleted_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_campaigns`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_campaigns` (`id`, `slug`, `name`, `type`, `parent_id`, `parent_type`, `subject`, `body`, `from_name`, `from_email`, `reply_to_name`, `reply_to_email`, `categories`, `list_ids`, `base_template_id`, `status`, `meta`, `created_at`, `updated_at`, `deleted_at`) VALUES
(1, 'welcome-to-email-subscribers', 'Welcome To Email Subscribers', 'newsletter', NULL, NULL, NULL, '', 'Marcellus', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'Marcellus', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', '', '1', 2040, 1, NULL, '2019-10-25 09:42:44', NULL, NULL),
(2, 'new-post-published-posttitle', 'New Post Published - {{POSTTITLE}}', 'post_notification', NULL, NULL, NULL, '', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'Marcellus', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'Marcellus', '##17##4##8##14##11##10##22##19##20##16##18##12##7##6##21##5##1##', '1', 2041, 1, NULL, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', NULL, NULL);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_contactmeta`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_contactmeta` (
  `meta_id` bigint(20) NOT NULL,
  `contact_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `meta_key` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `meta_value` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_contacts`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_contacts` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `wp_user_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `first_name` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `last_name` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `email` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `source` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `form_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `status` varchar(10) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `unsubscribed` tinyint(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `hash` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `is_verified` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `is_disposable` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `is_rolebased` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `is_webmail` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `is_deliverable` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `is_sendsafely` tinyint(1) DEFAULT '0',
  `meta` longtext CHARACTER SET utf8
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_contacts`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_contacts` (`id`, `wp_user_id`, `first_name`, `last_name`, `email`, `source`, `form_id`, `status`, `unsubscribed`, `hash`, `created_at`, `updated_at`, `is_verified`, `is_disposable`, `is_rolebased`, `is_webmail`, `is_deliverable`, `is_sendsafely`, `meta`) VALUES
(1, 1, 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', '', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'admin', 0, 'verified', 0, 'uedgrq-ebnpft-abyzqv-krcesq-tdmclf', '2019-10-25 09:42:05', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, ''),
(2, 0, 'rayeesh.alam', '', 'rayeesh.alam@envigo.co.uk', 'admin', 0, 'verified', 0, 'oevabt-fzkuja-uglseq-woldnk-xmloab', '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, '');

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_contacts_ips`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_contacts_ips` (
  `ip` varchar(45) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `created_on` timestamp NOT NULL DEFAULT CURRENT_TIMESTAMP
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_contact_meta`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_contact_meta` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `contact_id` bigint(10) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `meta_key` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `meta_value` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_forms`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_forms` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `body` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `settings` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `styles` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `deleted_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `af_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0'
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_forms`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_forms` (`id`, `name`, `body`, `settings`, `styles`, `created_at`, `updated_at`, `deleted_at`, `af_id`) VALUES
(1, 'News letters', 'a:4:{i:0;a:5:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"text\";s:4:\"name\";s:4:\"Name\";s:2:\"id\";s:4:\"name\";s:6:\"params\";a:4:{s:5:\"label\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"place_holder\";s:0:\"\";s:4:\"show\";b:0;s:8:\"required\";b:0;}s:8:\"position\";i:1;}i:1;a:5:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"text\";s:4:\"name\";s:5:\"Email\";s:2:\"id\";s:5:\"email\";s:6:\"params\";a:4:{s:5:\"label\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"place_holder\";s:24:\"Enter your email address\";s:4:\"show\";b:1;s:8:\"required\";b:1;}s:8:\"position\";i:2;}i:2;a:5:{s:4:\"type\";s:8:\"checkbox\";s:4:\"name\";s:5:\"Lists\";s:2:\"id\";s:5:\"lists\";s:6:\"params\";a:4:{s:5:\"label\";s:5:\"Lists\";s:4:\"show\";b:0;s:8:\"required\";b:1;s:6:\"values\";a:1:{i:0;s:1:\"2\";}}s:8:\"position\";i:3;}i:3;a:5:{s:4:\"type\";s:6:\"submit\";s:4:\"name\";s:6:\"submit\";s:2:\"id\";s:6:\"submit\";s:6:\"params\";a:3:{s:5:\"label\";s:9:\"Subscribe\";s:4:\"show\";b:1;s:8:\"required\";b:1;}s:8:\"position\";i:4;}}', 'a:3:{s:5:\"lists\";a:1:{i:0;s:1:\"2\";}s:4:\"desc\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"form_version\";s:3:\"1.0\";}', NULL, '2019-10-25 09:42:05', '2019-10-25 09:47:12', NULL, 0);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_links`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_links` (
  `id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `message_id` int(10) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `campaign_id` int(10) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `link` varchar(2083) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `hash` varchar(20) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `i` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_lists`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_lists` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `slug` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `deleted_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_lists`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_lists` (`id`, `slug`, `name`, `created_at`, `updated_at`, `deleted_at`) VALUES
(1, 'test', 'Test', '2019-10-25 09:42:05', NULL, NULL),
(2, 'main', 'Main', '2019-10-25 09:42:05', NULL, NULL);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_lists_contacts`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_lists_contacts` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `list_id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `contact_id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `status` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `optin_type` tinyint(4) NOT NULL,
  `subscribed_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `subscribed_ip` varchar(45) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `unsubscribed_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `unsubscribed_ip` varchar(45) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_lists_contacts`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_lists_contacts` (`id`, `list_id`, `contact_id`, `status`, `optin_type`, `subscribed_at`, `subscribed_ip`, `unsubscribed_at`, `unsubscribed_ip`) VALUES
(1, 1, 1, 'subscribed', 1, '2019-10-25 09:42:05', '', NULL, NULL),
(2, 2, 1, 'subscribed', 1, '2019-10-25 09:42:05', '', NULL, NULL),
(3, 1, 2, 'subscribed', 1, '2019-10-25 10:33:26', '', NULL, NULL),
(4, 2, 2, 'subscribed', 2, '2019-10-25 10:33:26', '14.98.227.234', NULL, NULL);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_mailing_queue`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_mailing_queue` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `hash` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `campaign_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `subject` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `body` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `count` int(10) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `status` varchar(10) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `start_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `finish_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `meta` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `created_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_mailing_queue`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_mailing_queue` (`id`, `hash`, `campaign_id`, `subject`, `body`, `count`, `status`, `start_at`, `finish_at`, `meta`, `created_at`, `updated_at`) VALUES
(1, 'lscqoa-tlabfr-gqpvar-ejfzvt-nauybj', 1, 'Welcome To Email Subscribers', '<strong style=\"color: #990000\">What can you achieve using Email Subscribers?</strong><p>Add subscription forms on website, send HTML newsletters & automatically notify subscribers about new blog posts once it is published. You can also Import or Export subscribers from any list to Email Subscribers.</p> <strong style=\"color: #990000\">Plugin Features</strong><ol> <li>Send notification emails to subscribers when new blog posts are published.</li> <li>Subscribe form available with 3 options to setup.</li> <li>Double Opt-In and Single Opt-In support.</li> <li>Email notification to admin when a new user signs up (Optional).</li> <li>Automatic welcome email to subscriber.</li> <li>Auto add unsubscribe link in the email.</li> <li>Import/Export subscriber emails to migrate to any lists.</li> <li>Default WordPress editor to create emails.</li> </ol> <strong>Thanks & Regards,</strong><br>Admin', 2, 'Sent', '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', NULL, '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '2019-10-25 09:42:44'),
(2, 'blgkvz-zkdunb-ldhoxf-bywtmc-qvxjci', 2, 'New Post Published - 30th June 2019', '<p>Hello {{NAME}},</p>\n<p>We have published a new blog article on our website : 30th June 2019</p>\n<p>You can view it from this link : <a href=\'http://marcellus.in/30th-june-2019/\' target=\'_blank\'>http://marcellus.in/30th-june-2019/</a></p>\n<p>Thanks &#038; Regards,<br />\nAdmin</p>\n<p>You received this email because in the past you have provided us your email address : {{EMAIL}} to receive notifications when new updates are posted.</p>\n', 2, 'Sent', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', NULL, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '2019-10-25 09:42:45');

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_queue`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_queue` (
  `contact_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `campaign_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `requeued` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `added` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `timestamp` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `sent_at` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `priority` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `count` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `error` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `ignore_status` tinyint(1) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `options` varchar(191) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `tags` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_ig_sending_queue`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_ig_sending_queue` (
  `id` int(10) NOT NULL,
  `mailing_queue_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `mailing_queue_hash` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `campaign_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `contact_id` int(10) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `contact_hash` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `email` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `status` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci DEFAULT NULL,
  `links` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `opened` int(1) DEFAULT NULL,
  `sent_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `opened_at` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_ig_sending_queue`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_ig_sending_queue` (`id`, `mailing_queue_id`, `mailing_queue_hash`, `campaign_id`, `contact_id`, `contact_hash`, `email`, `status`, `links`, `opened`, `sent_at`, `opened_at`) VALUES
(1, 1, 'lscqoa-tlabfr-gqpvar-ejfzvt-nauybj', 1, 1, 'uedgrq-ebnpft-abyzqv-krcesq-tdmclf', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'Sent', '', 0, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '0000-00-00 00:00:00'),
(2, 1, 'lscqoa-tlabfr-gqpvar-ejfzvt-nauybj', 1, 2, 'oevabt-fzkuja-uglseq-woldnk-xmloab', 'rayeesh.alam@envigo.co.uk', 'Sent', '', 0, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '0000-00-00 00:00:00'),
(3, 2, 'blgkvz-zkdunb-ldhoxf-bywtmc-qvxjci', 2, 1, 'uedgrq-ebnpft-abyzqv-krcesq-tdmclf', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'Sent', '', 0, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '0000-00-00 00:00:00'),
(4, 2, 'blgkvz-zkdunb-ldhoxf-bywtmc-qvxjci', 2, 2, 'oevabt-fzkuja-uglseq-woldnk-xmloab', 'rayeesh.alam@envigo.co.uk', 'Sent', '', 0, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '0000-00-00 00:00:00');

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_links`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_links` (
  `link_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `link_url` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_name` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_image` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_target` varchar(25) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_description` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_visible` varchar(20) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT 'Y',
  `link_owner` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '1',
  `link_rating` int(11) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `link_updated` datetime NOT NULL DEFAULT '0000-00-00 00:00:00',
  `link_rel` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `link_notes` mediumtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `link_rss` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_options`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_options` (
  `option_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `option_name` varchar(191) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `option_value` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `autoload` varchar(20) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT 'yes'
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_options`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_options` (`option_id`, `option_name`, `option_value`, `autoload`) VALUES
(1, 'siteurl', 'https://marcellus.in', 'yes'),
(2, 'home', 'https://marcellus.in', 'yes'),
(3, 'blogname', 'Marcellus', 'yes'),
(4, 'blogdescription', '', 'yes'),
(5, 'users_can_register', '0', 'yes'),
(6, 'admin_email', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', 'yes'),
(7, 'start_of_week', '1', 'yes'),
(8, 'use_balanceTags', '0', 'yes'),
(9, 'use_smilies', '1', 'yes'),
(10, 'require_name_email', '1', 'yes'),
(11, 'comments_notify', '1', 'yes'),
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(15786, 'ig_es_confirmation_mail_content', 'Hi {{NAME}},\r\n\r\nJust one more step before we share the awesomeness from {{SITENAME}}!\r\n\r\nPlease confirm your subscription by clicking on this link:\r\n\r\n{{SUBSCRIBE-LINK}}\r\n\r\nThanks!', 'no'),
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(15788, 'ig_es_welcome_email_subject', 'Welcome to {{SITENAME}}', 'no'),
(15789, 'ig_es_welcome_email_content', 'Hi {{NAME}},\r\n\r\nJust wanted to send you a quick note...\r\n\r\nThank you for joining the awesome {{SITENAME}} tribe.\r\n\r\nOnly valuable emails from me, promise!\r\n\r\nThanks!', 'no'),
(15790, 'ig_es_enable_cron_admin_email', 'yes', 'no'),
(15791, 'ig_es_cron_admin_email', 'Hi Admin,\r\n\r\nCron URL has been triggered successfully on {{DATE}} for the email \'{{SUBJECT}}\'. And it sent email to {{COUNT}} recipient(s).\r\n\r\nBest,\r\nMarcellus', 'no'),
(15792, 'ig_es_cronurl', 'http://marcellus.in?es=cron&guid=zpyuxn-zputed-ylbaze-fpyxnq-ymopng', 'no'),
(15793, 'ig_es_hourly_email_send_limit', '300', 'no'),
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(15795, 'ig_es_sent_report_content', 'Hi Admin,\n\nEmail has been sent successfully to {{COUNT}} email(s). Please find the details below:\n\nUnique ID: {{UNIQUE}}\nStart Time: {{STARTTIME}}\nEnd Time: {{ENDTIME}}\nFor more information, login to your dashboard and go to Reports menu in Email Subscribers.\n\nThank You.', 'no'),
(15796, 'ig_es_unsubscribe_link', 'http://marcellus.in/?es=unsubscribe&db={{DBID}}&email={{EMAIL}}&guid={{GUID}}', 'no'),
(15797, 'ig_es_optin_link', 'http://marcellus.in/?es=optin&db={{DBID}}&email={{EMAIL}}&guid={{GUID}}', 'no'),
(15798, 'ig_es_unsubscribe_link_content', 'I\'d be sad to see you go. But if you want to, you can unsubscribe from here: {{UNSUBSCRIBE-LINK}}', 'no'),
(15799, 'ig_es_email_type', 'wp_html_mail', 'no'),
(15800, 'ig_es_notify_admin', 'yes', 'no'),
(15801, 'ig_es_optin_type', 'double_opt_in', 'no'),
(15802, 'ig_es_subscription_error_messsage', 'Hmm.. Something\'s amiss..\r\n\r\nCould not complete your request. That email address  is probably already subscribed. Or worse blocked!!\r\n\r\nPlease try again after some time - or contact us if the problem persists.\r\n\r\n', 'no'),
(15803, 'ig_es_subscription_success_message', 'You have been successfully subscribed.', 'no'),
(15804, 'ig_es_unsubscribe_error_message', 'Urrgh.. Something\'s wrong..\r\n\r\nAre you sure that email address is on our file? There was some problem in completing your request.\r\n\r\nPlease try again after some time - or contact us if the problem persists.\r\n\r\n', 'no'),
(15805, 'ig_es_unsubscribe_success_message', '<h2>Unsubscribed.</h2><p>You will no longer hear from us. ☹️ Sorry to see you go!</p>', 'no'),
(15806, 'ig_es_post_image_size', 'thumbnail', 'no'),
(15807, 'ig_es_db_version', '4.2.4', 'no'),
(15808, 'ig_es_current_version_date_details', 'a:2:{s:18:\"es_current_version\";s:5:\"4.2.4\";s:15:\"es_current_date\";s:19:\"2019-10-25 09:42:05\";}', 'no'),
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(15810, 'ig_es_roles_and_capabilities', '', 'no'),
(15811, 'ig_es_sample_data_imported', 'no', 'no'),
(15812, 'ig_es_default_subscriber_imported', 'no', 'no'),
(15813, 'ig_es_set_widget', '', 'no'),
(15814, 'ig_es_sync_wp_users', '', 'no'),
(15815, 'ig_es_blocked_domains', 'mail.ru', 'no'),
(15816, 'ig_es_disable_wp_cron', 'no', 'no'),
(15817, 'ig_es_track_email_opens', 'yes', 'no'),
(15818, 'ig_es_installed_on', '2019-10-25 09:42:05', 'no'),
(15819, 'ig_es_form_submission_success_message', 'Your subscription was successful! Kindly check your mailbox and confirm your subscription. If you don\'t see the email within a few minutes, check the spam/junk folder.', 'no'),
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(15821, 'ig_es_email_sent_data', 'a:0:{}', 'no'),
(15822, 'ig_es_mailer_settings', 'a:1:{s:6:\"mailer\";s:6:\"wpmail\";}', 'no'),
(15824, 'ig_admin_notices', 'a:0:{}', 'yes'),
(15825, 'widget_email-subscribers-form', 'a:1:{s:12:\"_multiwidget\";i:1;}', 'yes'),
(15827, 'ig_es_onboarding_test_campaign_success', 'yes', 'yes'),
(15828, 'ig_es_onboarding_complete', 'yes', 'yes'),
(15829, 'ig_es_ob_skip_email_receive_error', 'yes', 'yes'),
(962, 'auto_core_update_notified', 'a:4:{s:4:\"type\";s:7:\"success\";s:5:\"email\";s:27:\"rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\";s:7:\"version\";s:6:\"4.9.15\";s:9:\"timestamp\";i:1591865286;}', 'no'),
(1878, 'cfdb7_view_ignore_notice', 'true', 'yes'),
(1159, 'cfdb7_view_install_date', '2018-12-19 5:24:24', 'yes'),
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(12492, 2071, 'home-banner-content', '<img src=\"/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/banner-quote.png\" alt=\"\" />\r\n<h1>INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT</h1>\r\n<h2>SHOULD BE LIKE WATCHING GRASS GROW OR PAINT DRY</h2>\r\n- Paul Samuelson\r\n\r\n<!-- <a href=\"#\">KNOW MORE</a> -->');
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(10251, 1864, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(9738, 1774, 'video_transcript', '<strong>Rakshit Ranjan</strong> - The holy grail of investing in equity markets is to find firms which can deliver\r\nreturns on capital substantially higher than their cost of capital and then have the ability to sustain\r\nthis gap for decades in a row. We call these firms Consistent Compounders. And if you really see\r\nwhat the gap between return on capital and cost of capital really mean, it is the free cash flow that a\r\nfirm generates. The wider this gap, the more competition the firm attracts, and intense competition\r\ntries to narrow this gap down as much as possible over time.\r\nIn the global landscape, most of the firms that dominate their sectors, they do not generate Returns\r\non Capital far higher than their Cost of Capital. Hence, in the global landscape Consistent\r\nCompounders aren’t present very easily. However, India is unique. In the Indian landscape, there\r\nexist firms like Pidilite in adhesives, Asian Paints in paints, HDFC Bank in the banking sector, Nestle in\r\npackaged foods – all these firms not only dominate their respective sectors, but their returns on\r\ncapital are far higher. These are the best examples of Consistent Compounders.\r\nIn 2014, I started managing my own money and started advising my friends and family on this\r\nphilosophy of investing in Consistent Compounders.\r\n<strong>Saurabh Mukherjea</strong> – So everything that you heard from Rakshit so far, suggests that this is a very\r\nsimple philosophy but the challenge often in the investing profession is what is simple is often not\r\neasy. And the core challenge in this form of investing is understanding sustainable competitive\r\nadvantage. A lot of people in our country struggle to understand why large, dominant firms like say\r\nMaruti Suzuki or say Unilever, why they are not Consistent Compounders and they find it equally\r\nhard to understand, why equally large firms like Asian Paints and HDFC Bank are Consistent\r\nCompounders. And to figure this out, to understand the core of sustainable competitive advantage\r\noften takes months, sometimes years of research to get to the bottom of this. That in a way is a\r\nsecret of the Consistent Compounders sauce.\r\n<strong>Rakshit Ranjan</strong> - The research process typically includes understanding why companies like Asian\r\nPaints and HDFC Bank have been able to deliver a consistent historical track record of healthy\r\nfundamentals. What has been nature of competition, disruptions, evolutionary changes that these\r\nfirms faced in the past? And why was it that their moats, their competitive advantages, their returns\r\non capital as a result, they were not competed away? For instance, for a firm like Asian Paints, it has\r\nfaced competition from erstwhile incumbents like Jensen Nicholson, which actually used to\r\ndominate the sector few decades ago, Kansai Nerolac, which still competes with Asian Paints in the\r\ncurrent landscape. World’s largest paint company, Sherwin Williams, which entered India in 2006\r\nand then exited in 2012, after finding it difficult to even cross Rs 100 crores of revenue.\r\nAsian Paints has also seen one of its promoter families exit in 1997, and we have been through so\r\nmany generations of promoters, 3 generations of promoters over the last 70 long years of the firm.\r\nAll this happening inside and outside of the firm, but nothing could shake the consistency of healthy\r\nfundamentals delivered by Asian Paints.\r\nAnd in order to understand the DNA of a firm like Asian Paints, amongst other things, we spent many\r\nhours, months, at time years with ex-CEOs of paint companies in India, speaking to dealers and\r\ncontractors who have been in this industry for several decades. And once we understand the secret\r\nsauce of firms that are there in our coverage universe, we watch them like a hawk, and we keep ourears close to the ground to ensure that we remain focused on the sustenance of the firm’scompetitive advantages over time.\r\n<strong>Saurabh Mukherjea</strong> – So several years ago, a friend of mine, who is also a fund manager,\r\nrecommended that I read Robert Kirby’s 1984 paper, and it was a real eye opener. Robert Kirby who\r\nis a fund manager at Capital, a celebrated fund manager at Capital, in Los Angeles in fact. He lays out\r\na very simple philosophy. He says find great companies and then hold them for 10 years. Don’t try to\r\ntime the exit, don’t try to time the entry. Simply buy great companies and sit tight for a decade. It’s\r\nbasically like going to an ATM machine which is puing out a 2000 Rupee note and just standing there\r\nand collecting the cash, not trying to figure out when to move away from the ATM machine.\r\nI found that philosophy very interesting. I implemented it in my personal life, in my portfolio. It\r\nyielded good results and that led me to ask the question, is there a book here, is there a method\r\nhere, that we could lay out in a book for investors out there in the real world. And after meeting\r\nsome of the companies who could potentially be part of the book, companies like Berger Paints, like\r\nMarico, we realised that the core of these great compounders is sustainable competitive advantage,\r\ncombined with a promoter, with a management team, which is unusual in its focus on competitive\r\nadvantages, unusual in its focus on high quality governance, unusual in its focus of creating a\r\ncompounding machine, which sustains over several decades. And that’s where the title of the book\r\nand the core insights in the book, Unusual Billionaires came about. We took Rob Kirby’s work,\r\nbrought it to India in the Unusual Billionaires.\r\n<strong>K.S. Dhingra</strong> – The only sustainable way is to make it some kind of institution, so that there is\r\ncontinuity and the family can, in a way, reap the benefits of dividend, etc. So therefore, we decided\r\nit is better to take a chance. It (the company) may be better run professionally than our own coming\r\nthere or it may be worse. But it’s a price to pay for sustainability. So, it was not a choice in our\r\nminds.\r\nFirst of all, we carried on working, in the way, instinctively, we felt it should be the right way to do\r\nthings. We had no clue how others were operating. So, when the book Unusual Billionaires came\r\nabout, then we read about others also. And we also realised, we also had no clue, that in the filter,\r\nwhich is an excellent filter that you (Marcellus) made, that we would actually be in the top 6 or 7 in\r\nthe whole of India. It quite surprised us because we knew what is happening with us, but we had no\r\nidea how it was in comparison to others. So that was very, very surprising for us and very\r\nencouraging and very inspiring. And secondly, what we did was what we did instinctively, and we\r\nhave held strongly that this is the right way to do it for sustainability, for making a nice company.\r\nWhat I liked about the book was when I read about the other companies in the Unusual Billionaires. I\r\nlearnt a lot from that. I must give you credit that I learnt a lot from the progression and the pattern\r\nothers follow. So, it was a learning for me, it is one of the nicest books I have read.\r\n<strong>Harsh Mariwala</strong> – So I think that the key thing is for any entrepreneur is to identify at what stage the\r\nbusiness is. And its important that the role of entrepreneur shifts as the business grows, so when\r\nyou are small, you are doing things yourself because you cannot afford to recruit and forget about\r\nafford but you cannot just recruit because good quality talent will not come in. But as you grow, you\r\nhave to recruit talent. And I think, that’s where the role shifts from doing things to getting things\r\ndone. And that’s a huge shift and most entrepreneurs don’t realise what that means because it\r\nmeans that you have to recruit very good talent, you have to empower people, you have to ensure\r\nthat they work with each other so team building, processes, all that comes in. And I think, it is a time\r\nfor the entrepreneur to sit back little bit and see how he can make others perform better.\r\n\r\nSo, I think every organization has to have a very strong succession plan at all levels and specially at\r\nthe top level. And as I started getting older, that question was raised by my Board, what is my\r\nsuccession plan. Normally in Indian family owned organisation, it is assumed that the children will\r\ntake over. In my case what happened was I have a person who will work with me for 10-12 years, we\r\nhad a discussion at the Board level and we decided to promote him and I decided to step down.\r\nWhat I call, Hands off but mind is always on. So day to day, nothing comes to me for decisions but\r\nI’m actively involved in terms of what’s happening at the organization and I add values in terms of\r\nwith whatever thoughts I have so its been a win-win kind of an arrangement, where I’m also\r\nenjoying this role which is a big shift for me from a full time Managing Director role to spending just\r\n20% of my time on the company. And if you look at our portfolio of products, in whatever product\r\nwe are present in, we are market leaders in that particular segment, that’s one. Number two, as\r\nmodernization comes in and as youth is getting exposed to the western world, we are seeing that\r\nthey are buying newer products for, what we call, pre and post wash hair care. We have gone in hair\r\ngels and hair creams and hair fixes and hair waxes for the modern youth who wants to go to disco\r\nand all.\r\nBut you (Marcellus) are right, we need to now go beyond hair oils. As an organization, you always\r\nhave to look at what are the newer opportunities. So, we have gone into now Saffola foods, where\r\nwe have launched whole range of, apart from oats which is doing very well, within 3-4 years we have\r\nbuilt a 100Crore+ franchise in Masala Oats. We are going into other high protein soups. We have\r\nalready launched high protein soups, green tea, green coffee with variants.\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea – So after quitting my previous role in 2018, I decided to put my skin in the\r\ngame fully. I decided to found Marcellus Investment Managers. The goal of the firm was and remains\r\nto manage money for individuals and for corporates using the precepts laid down by Robert Kirby in\r\nhis celebrated 1984 paper. We call this approach the Consistent Compounder PMS. And beyond the\r\nintellectual element of investing, beyond putting high quality research into play, we have also\r\nfocussed on hiring the best talent in India and setting up systems and processes so that the overall\r\nclient experience that we provide is world class. So Consistent Compounders PMS is not just\r\nimplementing high quality intellectual approach but also making sure that the end to end invest\r\nexperience is more than satisfactory.\r\n<strong>Salil Desai -</strong> I used to work in Mumbai with a very prominent brokerage. From there I joined one of\r\nthe largest family offices in India. As part of a very small investment team, I was responsible for\r\ninvesting 2.5 billion dollars and consistently generating returns. When I heard that Marcellus was\r\nbeing set up, I reached out to Saurabh because I wanted to be part of a team where they take the\r\nideas of fundamentally high-quality long term investing to a wider range of people. I met the\r\nMarcellus team three times over long chats and I signed up.\r\n<strong>Pramod Gubbi</strong> - Besides delivering healthy investment returns to our clients, we focus a lot on client\r\nservice. We intend to deliver the highest level of transparency when it comes to delivering Portfolio\r\nManagement Services. At the outset, we spend a lot of time with our clients explaining the\r\ninvestment philosophy so that the journey with us is smooth. Secondly, we have hired one of the\r\nbest backend service providers from custodians to fund accounting so that the experience for the\r\nclients is top class and finally our in house client service team works really hard to provide a\r\nseamless experience right from onboarding to the journey in terms of getting access to their\r\nportfolios and statements and so on. So, as we help clients grow their wealth, we also don’t want to\r\ntake it for granted their trust in us. It is most important, particularly while securing a financial future,\r\nthat trust is intact, and we intend work very hard to retain that. If you are interested in knowing\r\nmore about our fund, feel free to reach out to us on our website.'),
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(10944, 1913, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11478, 1955, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(10265, 1864, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(10267, 1864, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10295, 1866, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1765 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10315, 1866, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-book.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to...\r\n\r\n<a class=\"btn btn-primary custombtn\" href=\"#\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-book.png\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to...\r\n\r\n<a class=\"btn btn-primary custombtn\" href=\"#\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10628, 1891, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10356, 1875, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10360, 1875, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(10364, 1875, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10368, 1875, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(10372, 1875, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
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(10374, 1875, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 1</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"#\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 2</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(10376, 1875, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</span></h1>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1874\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">The Unusual Billionaires</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10380, 1876, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10384, 1876, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(10386, 1876, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10387, 1876, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10388, 1876, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10390, 1876, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10391, 1876, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10392, 1876, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(10394, 1876, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10395, 1876, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10396, 1876, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10397, 1876, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10398, 1876, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 1</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"#\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 2</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10399, 1876, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10400, 1876, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h3 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</span></h3>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1874\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">The Unusual Billionaires</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10401, 1876, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10402, 1877, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10403, 1877, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10404, 1877, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10406, 1877, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
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(10408, 1877, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(10412, 1877, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10414, 1877, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10415, 1877, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10416, 1877, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(10418, 1877, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10419, 1877, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10420, 1877, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10421, 1877, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10422, 1877, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 1</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"#\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Disclosure document 2</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10423, 1877, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10424, 1877, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1874\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n<h1 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">The Unusual Billionaires</span></h1>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10425, 1877, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10426, 1879, '_wp_attached_file', '2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019.pdf'),
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(10482, 1885, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10483, 1885, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10484, 1885, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10434, 1883, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10435, 1883, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10436, 1883, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10437, 1883, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10438, 1883, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10439, 1883, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10440, 1883, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(10442, 1883, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10443, 1883, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10444, 1883, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10446, 1883, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10447, 1883, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10448, 1883, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10449, 1883, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10450, 1883, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10451, 1883, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10452, 1883, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10453, 1883, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10454, 1883, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10455, 1883, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10456, 1883, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1874\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1882\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">The Unusual Billionaires</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1881\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10457, 1883, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10458, 1884, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10459, 1884, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10460, 1884, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10461, 1884, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10462, 1884, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10463, 1884, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10464, 1884, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
(10465, 1884, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10466, 1884, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10467, 1884, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10468, 1884, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10469, 1884, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10470, 1884, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10471, 1884, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878');
INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(10472, 1884, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10473, 1884, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10474, 1884, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10475, 1884, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10476, 1884, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10477, 1884, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10478, 1884, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10479, 1884, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10480, 1884, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1874\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure></figure>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1882\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n<h4 id=\"title\" class=\"a-size-large a-spacing-none\"><span id=\"productTitle\" class=\"a-size-large\">The Unusual Billionaires</span></h4>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1881\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" />\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10481, 1884, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10485, 1885, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10486, 1885, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10487, 1885, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10488, 1885, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
(10489, 1885, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10490, 1885, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10491, 1885, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10492, 1885, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10493, 1885, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10494, 1885, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10495, 1885, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10496, 1885, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10497, 1885, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10498, 1885, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10499, 1885, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10500, 1885, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10501, 1885, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10502, 1885, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10503, 1885, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10504, 1885, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>The Unusual Billionaires</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10505, 1885, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10506, 1886, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10507, 1886, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10508, 1886, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10509, 1886, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10510, 1886, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10511, 1886, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10512, 1886, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1871\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy-300x226.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
(10513, 1886, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10514, 1886, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10515, 1886, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10516, 1886, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10517, 1886, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10518, 1886, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10519, 1886, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10520, 1886, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10521, 1886, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10522, 1886, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10523, 1886, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10524, 1886, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10525, 1886, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10526, 1886, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10527, 1886, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10528, 1886, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>The Unusual Billionaires</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10529, 1886, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10531, 1887, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10532, 1887, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10533, 1887, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10534, 1887, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10535, 1887, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10536, 1887, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<p class=\"section-tab-content\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</p>\r\n\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section>'),
(10537, 1887, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10538, 1887, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10539, 1887, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10540, 1887, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10541, 1887, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10542, 1887, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10543, 1887, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10544, 1887, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10545, 1887, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10546, 1887, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10547, 1887, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10548, 1887, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10549, 1887, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10550, 1887, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10551, 1887, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10552, 1887, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>Gurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\n<p>The Unusual Billionaires</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\" class=\"view-detail\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10553, 1887, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10554, 1888, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10555, 1888, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10556, 1888, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10557, 1888, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10558, 1888, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10559, 1888, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10560, 1888, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<section class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section>\r\n\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section>'),
(10561, 1888, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10562, 1888, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10563, 1888, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10564, 1888, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10565, 1888, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10566, 1888, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10567, 1888, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10568, 1888, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10569, 1888, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10570, 1888, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10571, 1888, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10572, 1888, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10573, 1888, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10574, 1888, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10575, 1888, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10576, 1888, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10577, 1888, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10578, 1889, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10579, 1889, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10580, 1889, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10581, 1889, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10582, 1889, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10583, 1889, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876');
INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(10584, 1889, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">\r\n<p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section>\r\n\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section>\r\n</div>'),
(10585, 1889, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10586, 1889, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10587, 1889, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10588, 1889, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10589, 1889, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10590, 1889, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10591, 1889, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10592, 1889, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10593, 1889, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10594, 1889, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10595, 1889, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10596, 1889, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10597, 1889, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10598, 1889, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10599, 1889, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10600, 1889, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10601, 1889, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11472, 1955, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10602, 1890, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10603, 1890, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10604, 1890, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then\r\nletting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”Nearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10605, 1890, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10606, 1890, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10607, 1890, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10608, 1890, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">\r\n<p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n<p>Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</p>\r\n<p>The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.</p><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</section>\r\n\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section>\r\n</div>'),
(10609, 1890, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10610, 1890, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10611, 1890, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10612, 1890, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10613, 1890, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10614, 1890, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10615, 1890, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10616, 1890, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10617, 1890, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10618, 1890, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10619, 1890, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10620, 1890, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10621, 1890, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10622, 1890, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10623, 1890, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10624, 1890, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10625, 1890, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10629, 1891, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10630, 1891, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10631, 1891, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10632, 1891, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\n<p>Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</p>\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p>Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio</p>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">\r\n<p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n<p>Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</p>\r\n<p>The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.</p><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<p>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</p>\r\n<p>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</P></section>\r\n\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong> \r\n<p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p>\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong> \r\n<p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p>\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong> \r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</P>\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong> \r\n<p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p>\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong> \r\n<p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong> \r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P></section>\r\n</div>'),
(10633, 1891, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10634, 1891, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10635, 1891, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10636, 1891, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10637, 1891, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10638, 1891, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10639, 1891, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10640, 1891, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\n<p>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019</p>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10641, 1891, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10642, 1891, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10643, 1891, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10644, 1891, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\n<p>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019</p>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10645, 1891, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10646, 1891, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10647, 1891, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10648, 1891, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10649, 1891, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10651, 1892, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10652, 1892, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10653, 1892, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10654, 1892, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10655, 1892, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10656, 1892, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\n<p>Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</p>\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p>Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe\r\nis continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio</p>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">\r\n<p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\n<p>Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</p>\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\n\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies:</strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n\r\n<strong>Power of compounding:</strong>\r\n\r\nHolding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs:</strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</p>\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration:</strong>\r\n\r\nThe filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals:</strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven:</strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</p>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10657, 1892, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10658, 1892, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10659, 1892, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10660, 1892, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10661, 1892, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10662, 1892, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10663, 1892, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10664, 1892, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10665, 1892, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10666, 1892, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10667, 1892, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10668, 1892, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10669, 1892, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10670, 1892, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10671, 1892, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10672, 1892, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10673, 1892, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10675, 1893, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10676, 1893, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10677, 1893, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10678, 1893, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10679, 1893, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10680, 1893, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\n\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10681, 1893, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10682, 1893, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10683, 1893, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10684, 1893, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10685, 1893, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10686, 1893, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10687, 1893, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878');
INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(10688, 1893, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10689, 1893, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10690, 1893, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10691, 1893, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10692, 1893, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10693, 1893, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10694, 1893, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10695, 1893, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10696, 1893, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10697, 1893, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10698, 1894, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10699, 1894, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10700, 1894, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10701, 1894, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10702, 1894, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10703, 1894, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10704, 1894, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">,p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</p\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n\r\n<p>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</p>\r\n\r\n<p>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond Returns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</p>\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p>\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong><p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</p>\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p>\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</P><strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong><p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10705, 1894, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10706, 1894, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10707, 1894, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10708, 1894, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10709, 1894, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10710, 1894, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10711, 1894, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10712, 1894, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10713, 1894, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10714, 1894, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10715, 1894, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10716, 1894, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10717, 1894, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10718, 1894, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10719, 1894, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10720, 1894, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10721, 1894, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10722, 1895, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10723, 1895, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10724, 1895, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10725, 1895, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10726, 1895, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10727, 1895, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10728, 1895, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).&lt;/pThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\n\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond Returns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n\r\n<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10729, 1895, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10730, 1895, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10731, 1895, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10732, 1895, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10733, 1895, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10734, 1895, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10735, 1895, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10736, 1895, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10737, 1895, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10738, 1895, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10739, 1895, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10740, 1895, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10741, 1895, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10742, 1895, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10743, 1895, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10744, 1895, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10745, 1895, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10746, 1896, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10747, 1896, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10748, 1896, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10749, 1896, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10750, 1896, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10751, 1896, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10752, 1896, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</P>\r\n<p>Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</P>\r\n<p>The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.</P><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n\r\nThis filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.\r\n\r\nThe volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond \r\n<p>Returns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</P>\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10753, 1896, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10754, 1896, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10755, 1896, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10756, 1896, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10757, 1896, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10758, 1896, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10759, 1896, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10760, 1896, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10761, 1896, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10762, 1896, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10763, 1896, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10764, 1896, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10765, 1896, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10766, 1896, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10767, 1896, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10768, 1896, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10769, 1896, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10770, 1897, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10771, 1897, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10772, 1897, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10773, 1897, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10774, 1897, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10775, 1897, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10776, 1897, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</P>\r\n<p>Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).</P>\r\n<p>The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.</P><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n\r\n<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p>Returns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.</P>\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10777, 1897, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10778, 1897, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10779, 1897, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10780, 1897, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n\r\n1.a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or\r\n\r\n2.a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*\r\n\r\n3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10781, 1897, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10782, 1897, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10783, 1897, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10784, 1897, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10785, 1897, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10786, 1897, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10787, 1897, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10788, 1897, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10789, 1897, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10790, 1897, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10791, 1897, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10792, 1897, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10793, 1897, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10891, 1909, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10794, 1898, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10795, 1898, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10796, 1898, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10797, 1898, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10798, 1898, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10799, 1898, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876');
INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(10800, 1898, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10801, 1898, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10802, 1898, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10803, 1898, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10804, 1898, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10805, 1898, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10806, 1898, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10807, 1898, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10808, 1898, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10809, 1898, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
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(10812, 1898, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10813, 1898, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10814, 1898, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(10816, 1898, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10820, 1899, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10824, 1899, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section><section></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(10828, 1899, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10832, 1899, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(10836, 1899, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
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(10838, 1899, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(10840, 1899, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10869, 1908, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10873, 1908, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p></section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(10877, 1908, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(10885, 1908, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(10889, 1908, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10893, 1909, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(10897, 1909, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(10901, 1909, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10902, 1909, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10903, 1909, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10904, 1909, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10905, 1909, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(10909, 1909, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10910, 1909, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10911, 1909, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10912, 1909, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10913, 1909, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(10948, 1913, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10949, 1913, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
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(10951, 1913, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10952, 1913, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10953, 1913, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10954, 1913, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
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(10960, 1913, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10961, 1913, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10962, 1913, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(10963, 1913, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10964, 1913, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10965, 1913, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10966, 1916, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10967, 1916, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10968, 1916, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10969, 1916, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10970, 1916, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10971, 1916, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10972, 1916, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10973, 1916, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10974, 1916, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10975, 1916, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(10976, 1916, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(10977, 1916, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(10978, 1916, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(10979, 1916, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(10980, 1916, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(10981, 1916, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(10982, 1916, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(10983, 1916, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(10984, 1916, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(10985, 1916, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(10986, 1916, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\"  target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>'),
(10987, 1916, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(10988, 1916, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(10989, 1916, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(10990, 1917, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(10991, 1917, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(10992, 1917, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(10993, 1917, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(10994, 1917, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(10995, 1917, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(10996, 1917, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(10997, 1917, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(10998, 1917, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(10999, 1917, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(11000, 1917, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11001, 1917, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(11002, 1917, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11003, 1917, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11004, 1917, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(11005, 1917, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(11006, 1917, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(11007, 1917, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(11008, 1917, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11009, 1917, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11010, 1917, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\"  target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>'),
(11011, 1917, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11012, 1917, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11013, 1917, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11021, 1918, 'about-image-2', '75'),
(11022, 1918, '_about-image-2', 'field_5bed7c1707558'),
(11023, 1918, 'home_page_content', 'At Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.'),
(11024, 1918, '_home_page_content', 'field_5bfb9c7b82579'),
(11027, 1919, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(11028, 1919, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(11029, 1919, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(11033, 1919, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11037, 1919, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11041, 1919, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(11043, 1919, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
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(11045, 1919, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11046, 1919, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11047, 1919, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\"  target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>'),
(11048, 1919, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11049, 1919, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11053, 1920, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11054, 1920, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(11055, 1920, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(11056, 1920, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(11057, 1920, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11061, 1920, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11062, 1920, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(11063, 1920, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11064, 1920, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11065, 1920, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(11066, 1920, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(11067, 1920, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
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(11069, 1920, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11070, 1920, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11071, 1920, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\"  target=\"_blank\">Know more</a>'),
(11072, 1920, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11073, 1920, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11074, 1920, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(15652, 2489, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(11075, 1921, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(11076, 1921, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(11077, 1921, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11078, 1921, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(11079, 1921, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
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(11081, 1921, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11085, 1921, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11089, 1921, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(11093, 1921, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11094, 1921, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11095, 1921, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11096, 1921, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11097, 1921, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11101, 1922, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11105, 1922, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\">\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.</p>\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong><p>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.</p><strong>Power of compounding: </strong><p>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.</p><strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</P>\r\n\r\n</section>\r\n<section class=\"section-content-item\"><p>The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:</p><strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong><p>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?</p><strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong><p>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.</p>\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\n<p>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</P>\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11109, 1922, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\n<p>The Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:</p>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n\r\n<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n\r\n<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n<ol>\r\n\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11110, 1922, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
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(11113, 1922, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
(11114, 1922, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
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(11117, 1922, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11118, 1922, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11119, 1922, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11120, 1922, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11121, 1922, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11133, 1924, 'home_page_seo_content', 'Marcellus Investment Managers was founded in 2018 with the sole purpose of influencing efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We intend to achieve this by channelizing household savings towards high quality Indian companies with long track records of clean governance and strong capital allocation. Our approach to portfolio management doesn’t just focus on delivering healthy returns to our investors but also aims to do so by taking relatively low risks.  Marcellus’ core investment management team has been together for 15 years and their journey and learnings over the years underpin its investment management philosophy.\r\n\r\nMarcellus is licensed by SEBI to offer Portfolio Management Services (PMS) and Investment Advisory (IA) services. Our flagship investment product is the Marcellus Consistent Compounders Portfolio Management Services (CCP). CCP’s investment strategy is to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings compounding over long periods with very little volatility. The PMS comes with attractive performance-based fee options which aligns our interests with that of the investor. Furthermore, it has one of the lowest cost structures in the PMS industry with no entry loads, no lock-in and no exit loads. For more details, please see our products page.'),
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(11150, 1928, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11154, 1928, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.\r\n\r\nNext, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.\r\n\r\n<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>\r\n\r\nHolding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>\r\n\r\nThe filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11158, 1928, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11162, 1928, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Aug 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1872 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/performance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"359\" />'),
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(11166, 1928, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11167, 1928, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11168, 1928, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11169, 1928, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11170, 1928, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11178, 1930, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11182, 1930, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).\r\n\r\nThe bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>\r\n\r\nHolding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>\r\n\r\nThe filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11186, 1930, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11188, 1930, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11189, 1930, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11190, 1930, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Aug 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1929 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />'),
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(11193, 1930, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(11194, 1930, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11195, 1930, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11196, 1930, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11197, 1930, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11198, 1930, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11204, 1931, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11205, 1931, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(11208, 1931, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>\r\n\r\nBeing patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>\r\n\r\nEg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(11209, 1931, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
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(11212, 1931, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11220, 1931, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11221, 1931, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11222, 1931, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11223, 1931, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11224, 1931, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11232, 1933, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11236, 1933, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(11237, 1933, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(11238, 1933, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
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(11240, 1933, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11242, 1933, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
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(11248, 1933, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
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(11252, 1933, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11283, 1936, 'source', 'Institutional Investor <a href=\"https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1hd4s13sx299b/Stephen-Schwarzman-Hung-Out-a-Shingle-Then-He-Waited\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1hd4s13sx299b/Stephen-Schwarzman-Hung-Out-a-Shingle-Then-He-Waited\"/</a>'),
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(11384, 1864, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_consistent-compounders/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_little-champs_presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(11416, 1952, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11388, 1951, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11392, 1951, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
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(11396, 1951, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11400, 1951, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />'),
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(11404, 1951, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
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(11406, 1951, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11407, 1951, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11408, 1951, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11409, 1951, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11410, 1951, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(11411, 1951, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11412, 1951, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11413, 1951, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(11417, 1952, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(11418, 1952, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(11419, 1952, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(11420, 1952, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(11421, 1952, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(11422, 1952, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(11423, 1952, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(11424, 1952, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11425, 1952, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(11426, 1952, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11427, 1952, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11428, 1952, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />'),
(11429, 1952, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(11430, 1952, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(11431, 1952, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(11432, 1952, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11433, 1952, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11434, 1952, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11435, 1952, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11436, 1952, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11437, 1952, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11438, 1952, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(11439, 1952, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11440, 1952, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n'),
(11441, 1952, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(11443, 1953, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(11444, 1953, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11445, 1953, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(11446, 1953, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(11447, 1953, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(11448, 1953, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>\r\n\r\nFor example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n</section></div>'),
(11449, 1953, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(11450, 1953, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(11451, 1953, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(11452, 1953, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11453, 1953, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(11454, 1953, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11455, 1953, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11456, 1953, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />'),
(11457, 1953, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
(11458, 1953, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(11459, 1953, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(11460, 1953, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1873 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/portfolio.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"351\" />'),
(11461, 1953, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11462, 1953, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11463, 1953, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11464, 1953, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Two bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11465, 1953, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11466, 1953, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(11467, 1953, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11468, 1953, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n'),
(11469, 1953, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(11479, 1955, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
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(11482, 1955, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11492, 1955, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(11494, 1955, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11504, 1958, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11508, 1958, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(11520, 1958, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(11524, 1958, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(11595, 70, '_yoast_wpseo_metadesc', 'The Marcellus team includes Saurabh Mukherjea, Pramod Gubbi, Rakshit Ranjan & Manish Hemnani. Each team member brings years of experience and expertise to the table.'),
(11598, 70, '_yoast_wpseo_focuskw', 'Marcellus Investment Managers'),
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(11600, 47, '_yoast_wpseo_focuskw', 'Saurabh Mukherjea'),
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(11602, 352, '_wp_attachment_image_alt', 'Rakshit Ranjan'),
(11603, 335, '_yoast_wpseo_focuskw', 'Rakshit Ranjan'),
(11604, 335, '_yoast_wpseo_title', 'Know about Rakshit Ranjan, a Portfolio Manager at Marcellus'),
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(11608, 1659, '_yoast_wpseo_title', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers'),
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(11612, 1972, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11613, 1972, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(11616, 1972, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(11620, 1972, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11623, 1972, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11624, 1972, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-1957\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth-300x199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"199\" />'),
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(11628, 1972, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(11629, 1972, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11630, 1972, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(11632, 1972, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11633, 1972, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11634, 1972, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(11635, 1972, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11636, 1972, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11637, 1972, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(11639, 1973, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(11640, 1973, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(11641, 1973, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(11643, 1973, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(11644, 1973, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
(11645, 1973, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(11646, 1973, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
(11647, 1973, '_section_3_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b21d877'),
(11648, 1973, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(11649, 1973, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(11650, 1973, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(11651, 1973, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(11652, 1973, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />'),
(11653, 1973, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
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(11655, 1973, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(11656, 1973, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(11657, 1973, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(11658, 1973, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11659, 1973, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11660, 1973, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(11661, 1973, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(11662, 1973, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(11663, 1973, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(11664, 1973, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(11665, 1973, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(11666, 1974, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(11667, 1974, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(11668, 1974, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(11672, 1974, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(11676, 1974, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(11680, 1974, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(11684, 1974, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(11686, 1974, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12415, 2067, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1766 size-full\" src=\"http://localhost/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(12419, 2067, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(12423, 2067, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(12427, 2067, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12431, 2067, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12433, 2067, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12435, 2067, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(12474, 2069, 'home_page_content', 'At Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.'),
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(12484, 2070, 'home_page_content', 'At Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.'),
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(12496, 2071, 'home_page_seo_content', 'Marcellus Investment Managers was founded in 2018 with the sole purpose of influencing efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We intend to achieve this by channelising household savings towards high quality Indian companies with long track records of clean governance and strong capital allocation. Our approach to portfolio management doesn’t just focus on delivering healthy returns to our investors but also aims to do so by taking relatively low risks.  <a href=\"/our-team/\">Marcellus’ core investment management team</a> has been together for 15 years and their journey and learnings over the years underpin its investment management philosophy.\r\n\r\nMarcellus is licensed by SEBI to offer<a href=\"/products/\"> Portfolio Management Services (PMS)</a> and Investment Advisory (IA) services. Our flagship investment product is the Marcellus Consistent Compounders Portfolio Management Services (CCP). CCP’s investment strategy is to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings compounding over long periods with very little volatility. The PMS comes with attractive performance-based fee options which aligns our interests with that of the investor. Furthermore, it has one of the lowest cost structures in the PMS industry with no entry loads, no lock-in and no exit loads. For more details, please see our products page.'),
(12497, 2071, '_home_page_seo_content', 'field_5d63c3ce78ab0'),
(12502, 2073, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n'),
(12503, 2073, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(12506, 2073, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(12510, 2073, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(12514, 2073, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12518, 2073, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12520, 2073, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12522, 2073, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(12523, 2073, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(12524, 2073, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
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(12526, 2073, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(12527, 2073, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(17103, 2688, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(12528, 2074, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
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(12530, 2074, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n'),
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(12534, 2074, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(12538, 2074, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
(12539, 2074, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(12540, 2074, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(12541, 2074, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(12542, 2074, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12544, 2074, 'section_5_tab_name', 'Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20'),
(12545, 2074, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(12546, 2074, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(12547, 2074, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(12548, 2074, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(12549, 2074, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(12550, 2074, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(12551, 2074, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(12552, 2074, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(12553, 2074, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(12554, 2074, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(12555, 2074, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(12556, 2075, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(12557, 2075, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(12558, 2075, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n'),
(12559, 2075, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(12560, 2075, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(12561, 2075, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(12562, 2075, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(12566, 2075, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(12570, 2075, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">30th Sep 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12574, 2075, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12576, 2075, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12578, 2075, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(12582, 2075, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12593, 2080, '_wp_attachment_metadata', 'a:5:{s:5:\"width\";i:639;s:6:\"height\";i:225;s:4:\"file\";s:18:\"2019/11/image4.png\";s:5:\"sizes\";a:4:{s:9:\"thumbnail\";a:4:{s:4:\"file\";s:18:\"image4-150x150.png\";s:5:\"width\";i:150;s:6:\"height\";i:150;s:9:\"mime-type\";s:9:\"image/png\";}s:6:\"medium\";a:4:{s:4:\"file\";s:18:\"image4-300x106.png\";s:5:\"width\";i:300;s:6:\"height\";i:106;s:9:\"mime-type\";s:9:\"image/png\";}s:25:\"blog-featured-thumb-large\";a:4:{s:4:\"file\";s:18:\"image4-346x122.png\";s:5:\"width\";i:346;s:6:\"height\";i:122;s:9:\"mime-type\";s:9:\"image/png\";}s:25:\"blog-featured-thumb-small\";a:4:{s:4:\"file\";s:17:\"image4-100x35.png\";s:5:\"width\";i:100;s:6:\"height\";i:35;s:9:\"mime-type\";s:9:\"image/png\";}}s:10:\"image_meta\";a:12:{s:8:\"aperture\";s:1:\"0\";s:6:\"credit\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"camera\";s:0:\"\";s:7:\"caption\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"created_timestamp\";s:1:\"0\";s:9:\"copyright\";s:0:\"\";s:12:\"focal_length\";s:1:\"0\";s:3:\"iso\";s:1:\"0\";s:13:\"shutter_speed\";s:1:\"0\";s:5:\"title\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"orientation\";s:1:\"0\";s:8:\"keywords\";a:0:{}}}'),
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(12599, 2082, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />\r\n'),
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(12603, 2082, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(12607, 2082, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(12611, 2082, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/ \">31st Oct 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1932 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Bar-Graph_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"903\" height=\"726\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12615, 2082, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12617, 2082, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12619, 2082, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(12675, 2089, 'source', 'Quartz (<https://qz.com/1683609/how-the-music-industry-shifted-from-napster-to-spotify\" /\">https://qz.com/1683609/how-the-music-industry-shifted-from-napster-to-spotify/</a> )'),
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(12683, 2090, 'source', 'qz.com (<https://qz.com/1732974/new-york-citys-central-park-will-get-its-first-statue-of-women/\" /\">https://qz.com/1732974/new-york-citys-central-park-will-get-its-first-statue-of-women/</a>)'),
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(12883, 2119, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(12887, 2119, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(12891, 2119, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(12895, 2119, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/ \">31st Oct 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2118 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/newsletter-31st-oct.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12899, 2119, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(12901, 2119, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(12903, 2119, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(12909, 2120, 'author_name', ' BQ Desk'),
(12910, 2120, '_author_name', 'field_5d0c99e1c8e68'),
(12911, 2120, 'source', 'BloombergQuint ( <a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/real-economy-check-jammed-liquidity-to-overwhelming-regulations-hurting-small-drugmakers-says-orbit-lifesciences\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/real-economy-check-jammed-liquidity-to-overwhelming-regulations-hurting-small-drugmakers-says-orbit-lifesciences</a>)'),
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(12919, 2121, 'source', 'The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/artificial-intelligence-will-make-your-job-even-harder/597625/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/artificial-intelligence-will-make-your-job-even-harder/597625/</a>)'),
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(12927, 2122, 'source', 'BBC (<a href=\"http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world</a>)'),
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(12938, 2123, 'source', 'Wealth of Common Sense (<a href=\"https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/contradictory-figures-lessons-from-ubers-rise/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/09/contradictory-figures-lessons-from-ubers-rise/</a>)'),
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(12952, 2125, 'author_name', ' Seth Miller'),
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(12954, 2125, 'source', 'Persipacity (<a href=\"https://perspicacity.xyz/2019/07/07/is-it-possible-to-disrupt-a-cow/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://perspicacity.xyz/2019/07/07/is-it-possible-to-disrupt-a-cow/</a>)'),
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(12960, 2126, 'author_name', 'John F. Sullivan'),
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(12962, 2126, 'source', ' The Strategy Bridge (<a href=\"https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2019/9/24/notes-from-a-sun-tzu-skeptic\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2019/9/24/notes-from-a-sun-tzu-skeptic</a>)'),
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(12970, 2128, 'source', 'Newyorker.com (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/the-house-releases-the-declassified-whistle-blower-complaint-against-donald-trump\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/current/the-house-releases-the-declassified-whistle-blower-complaint-against-donald-trump</a>)'),
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(12976, 2129, 'author_name', 'Pankaj Mishra'),
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(12978, 2129, 'source', 'Moneycontrol (<a href=\"https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/the-curious-case-of-bhavish-aggarwal-and-ola-electric-4447411.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/the-curious-case-of-bhavish-aggarwal-and-ola-electric-4447411.html</a>)'),
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(12984, 2130, 'author_name', 'Ozan Varol'),
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(12986, 2130, 'source', 'Heleo (<a href=\"https://heleo.com/facts-dont-change-peoples-minds-heres/16242/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://heleo.com/facts-dont-change-peoples-minds-heres/16242/</a>)'),
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(12992, 2131, 'author_name', 'Sheila Marikar'),
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(12994, 2131, 'source', 'NY Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/business/casper-sleep.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/13/business/casper-sleep.html</a>)'),
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(13000, 2132, 'author_name', 'William Davies'),
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(13002, 2132, 'source', 'The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/sep/19/why-cant-we-agree-on-whats-true-anymore\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/sep/19/why-cant-we-agree-on-whats-true-anymore</a>)'),
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(13009, 2133, '_author_name', 'field_5d0c99e1c8e68'),
(13010, 2133, 'source', 'ESPN (<a href=\"https://www.espn.in/espn/story/_/id/27593253/why-grandmasters-magnus-carlsen-fabiano-caruana-lose-weight-playing-chess\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.espn.in/espn/story/_/id/27593253/why-grandmasters-magnus-carlsen-fabiano-caruana-lose-weight-playing-chess</a>)'),
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(13016, 2134, 'author_name', 'Anonymous'),
(13017, 2134, '_author_name', 'field_5d0c99e1c8e68'),
(13018, 2134, 'source', 'Indian Express (<a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/atharva-ankolekar-steers-india-to-u-19-asia-cup-title-5996090/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/atharva-ankolekar-steers-india-to-u-19-asia-cup-title-5996090/</a>)'),
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(13024, 2135, 'author_name', 'William Horobin'),
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(13026, 2135, 'source', 'Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/piketty-is-back-with-1-200-page-guide-to-abolishing-billionaires\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/piketty-is-back-with-1-200-page-guide-to-abolishing-billionaires</a> )'),
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(13032, 2136, 'author_name', 'Martin Wolf'),
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(13034, 2136, 'source', 'Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/5a8ab27e-d470-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.ft.com/content/5a8ab27e-d470-11e9-8367-807ebd53ab77</a>)'),
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(13042, 2137, 'source', ' (<a href=\"https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/09/the-once-and-future-imran-khan\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/09/the-once-and-future-imran-khan</a>)'),
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(13050, 2138, 'source', 'Barron’s (<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-fund-best-worst-stocks-51567625961\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-fund-best-worst-stocks-51567625961</a>)'),
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(13056, 2139, 'author_name', ' Abby Tabor'),
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(13058, 2139, 'source', 'NASA Ames (<a href=\"https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/human-activity-in-china-and-india-dominates-the-greening-of-earth-nasa-study-shows\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/human-activity-in-china-and-india-dominates-the-greening-of-earth-nasa-study-shows</a> )'),
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(13074, 2141, 'source', 'Barron’s <a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-fund-best-worst-stocks-51567625961\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-fund-best-worst-stocks-51567625961</a>'),
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(13106, 2147, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(13110, 2147, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(13114, 2147, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(13118, 2147, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/ \">31st Oct 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2146 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/marcellus-performance-november.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(13122, 2147, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(13124, 2147, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(13126, 2147, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(13130, 2147, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Oct-2019-3.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(13132, 2148, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
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(13134, 2148, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(13138, 2148, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(14113, 2295, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(14117, 2295, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(14121, 2295, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(14125, 2295, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/ \">31st Oct 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2146 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/marcellus-performance-november.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(14129, 2295, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(14131, 2295, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Little-Champs-Schemes-dated-27th-July-2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(14133, 2295, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(14139, 2296, 'author_name', 'Mark Akpaninyie'),
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(14213, 2306, 'source', 'Penguin Classics (<a href=\"http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)'),
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(14231, 15, '_yoast_wpseo_title', 'Get an overview of Marcellus Investment Managers\' portfolio management services'),
(14232, 15, '_yoast_wpseo_metadesc', 'Find out about Marcellus Investment Managers & their Alternative Investment Fund. Portfolio Management Services deliver healthy returns to investors without high risks.'),
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(14247, 2309, 'author_name', ' Megan Tobias Neely'),
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(14259, 2310, 'source', 'NY Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)'),
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(20642, 3163, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(20630, 3163, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(20634, 3163, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">31st March 2020</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3161\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-052537.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"456\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20638, 3163, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20640, 3163, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(20626, 3163, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(15654, 2489, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(15658, 2489, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(15662, 2489, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(15666, 2489, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/ \">31st Oct 2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2146 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/marcellus-performance-november.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(15670, 2489, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(15672, 2489, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Disclosure-Document-PMS-CCP-20191120-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(15674, 2489, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(15686, 2492, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(15690, 2492, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(15694, 2492, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(15702, 2492, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(15704, 2492, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(15706, 2492, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(16166, 2560, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(16170, 2560, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(16174, 2560, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(16178, 2560, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/are-consistent-compounders-too-big-to-grow-2/\">30th N0v\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2146 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/marcellus-performance-november.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(16182, 2560, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(16184, 2560, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(16186, 2560, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(16189, 2560, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(16190, 2560, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(16191, 2560, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
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(16196, 2562, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(16200, 2562, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(16204, 2562, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(16212, 2562, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on 30th Aug 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(16216, 2562, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(16262, 2537, '_wp_old_slug', 'are-consistent-compounders-too-big-to-grow__trashed'),
(16955, 2672, 'author_name', 'Michiko Kakutani'),
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(17105, 2688, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(17106, 2688, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(17109, 2688, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17113, 2688, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(17116, 2688, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(17117, 2688, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2561 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/New-Bar-Graph.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17120, 2688, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(17121, 2688, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/product-page-growth.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"725\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(17122, 2688, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(17123, 2688, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(17124, 2688, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(17125, 2688, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(17126, 2688, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(17127, 2688, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(17128, 2688, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(17129, 2688, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(17130, 2688, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(17215, 2692, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(17131, 2689, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
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(17133, 2689, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(17134, 2689, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(17136, 2689, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(17137, 2689, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17141, 2689, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 25 lacs'),
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(17151, 2689, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17153, 2689, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17161, 2690, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17165, 2690, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17169, 2690, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17179, 2690, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(17180, 2690, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(17181, 2690, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17189, 2691, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17193, 2691, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17197, 2691, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17201, 2691, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2561 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/New-Bar-Graph.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17207, 2691, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17209, 2691, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17217, 2692, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17221, 2692, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17225, 2692, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17229, 2692, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2561 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/New-Bar-Graph.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17235, 2692, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17237, 2692, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17247, 2694, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17251, 2694, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17255, 2694, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17267, 2694, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17297, 2699, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17301, 2699, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17341, 2708, 'home-banner-content', '<img src=\"/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/banner-quote.png\" alt=\"\" />\r\n<h1>INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT</h1>\r\n<h2>SHOULD BE LIKE WATCHING GRASS GROW OR PAINT DRY</h2>\r\n- Paul Samuelson\r\n\r\n<!-- <a href=\"#\">KNOW MORE</a> -->'),
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(17345, 2708, 'home_page_seo_content', 'Marcellus Investment Managers was founded in 2018 with the sole purpose of influencing efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We intend to achieve this by channelising household savings towards high quality Indian companies with long track records of clean governance and strong capital allocation. Our approach to portfolio management doesn’t just focus on delivering healthy returns to our investors but also aims to do so by taking relatively low risks.  <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/our-team/\">Marcellus’ core investment management team</a> has been together for 15 years and their journey and learnings over the years underpin its investment management philosophy.\r\n\r\nMarcellus is licensed by SEBI to offer<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/portfolio-management-services/\"> Portfolio Management Services (PMS)</a> and Investment Advisory (IA) services. Our flagship investment product is the<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf\"> Marcellus Consistent Compounders</a> Portfolio Management Services (CCP). CCP’s investment strategy is to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings compounding over long periods with very little volatility. The PMS comes with attractive performance-based fee options which aligns our interests with that of the investor. Furthermore, it has one of the lowest cost structures in the PMS industry with no entry loads, no lock-in and no exit loads. For more details, please see our products page.'),
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(17547, 2729, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17551, 2729, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17555, 2729, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17559, 2729, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17563, 2729, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17567, 2729, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22499, 3457, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22503, 3457, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17636, 2759, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17640, 2759, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17644, 2759, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17648, 2759, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17652, 2759, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17654, 2759, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17656, 2759, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17667, 2762, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17671, 2762, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17675, 2762, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17679, 2762, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17683, 2762, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17685, 2762, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17687, 2762, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17695, 2763, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17699, 2763, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17703, 2763, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17707, 2763, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17711, 2763, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(17713, 2763, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/LCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(17715, 2763, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18964, 2931, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17817, 2802, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17821, 2802, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(17833, 2802, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(17904, 2809, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(17908, 2809, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(17912, 2809, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18188, 2841, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18192, 2841, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18196, 2841, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18208, 2841, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18218, 2845, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18222, 2845, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18226, 2845, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18236, 2845, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(18237, 2845, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(18238, 2845, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18242, 2845, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/January-2020_Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_-compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(18246, 2846, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18250, 2846, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18254, 2846, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18258, 2846, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18262, 2846, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18266, 2846, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18282, 2847, 'video_transcript', 'Given that each year 60 companies enter the BSE500, there are indeed strong economic drivers which help well run small firms explode into prominence. From an investors’ viewpoint, in the three-year run-up to entering the BSE500, new entrants outperform the index by a CAGR of 40%, indicating significant return opportunity before these stocks are discovered by institutional investors.\r\nHow does Marcellus see the opportunity and build a portfolio of companies with stellar track records of capital allocation, clean accounts and high growth potential? Why should one consider investing in Marcellus Little Champs? To answer these questions a Webinar was conducted on 28th Jan 2020 where in panelists Mr. Saurabh Mukherjea (CIO), Mr. Ashvin Shetty(Fund Manager Little Champs) and Mr. Pramod Gubbi(Head of Sales) interacted with clients about the new small cap PMS.\r\nTo read our News letters and Blogs please visit https://www.marcellus.in'),
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(18573, 2880, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18577, 2880, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18305, 2856, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18309, 2856, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18313, 2856, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18321, 2856, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18323, 2856, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(18325, 2856, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18327, 2856, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
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(18329, 2856, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/January-2020_Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_-compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(18334, 2858, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(18335, 2858, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(18336, 2858, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(18339, 2858, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18343, 2858, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18345, 2858, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
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(18351, 2858, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18353, 2858, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(18354, 2858, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(18355, 2858, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18357, 2858, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
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(18359, 2858, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb2020-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/January-2020_Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_-compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(18360, 2858, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
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(18507, 2874, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18511, 2874, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18541, 2877, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18545, 2877, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18549, 2877, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18557, 2877, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18561, 2877, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18581, 2880, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18591, 2880, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(18593, 2880, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18626, 2887, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18630, 2887, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18646, 2887, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18968, 2931, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(18972, 2931, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(18976, 2931, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18980, 2931, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(18982, 2931, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(18984, 2931, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(18988, 2931, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb-2020.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_February-7-2020-compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
(18989, 2931, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(18990, 2932, '_wp_attached_file', '2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb-2020.pdf'),
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(18994, 2933, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(18998, 2933, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19024, 2935, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19028, 2935, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19042, 2935, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(19052, 2936, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19056, 2936, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19060, 2936, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19064, 2936, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19068, 2936, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19070, 2936, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(19072, 2936, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(19073, 2936, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(19074, 2936, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
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(19076, 2936, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb-2020_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" >Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_February-7-2020-compressed.pdf\">Know more</a>'),
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(19078, 2937, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
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(19080, 2937, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19084, 2937, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19088, 2937, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19090, 2937, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(19091, 2937, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(19092, 2937, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19096, 2937, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(19097, 2937, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(19098, 2937, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(19099, 2937, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(19100, 2937, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(19101, 2937, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(19102, 2937, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(19103, 2937, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(19104, 2937, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb-2020_compressed.pdf\"target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" >Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation_February-7-2020-compressed.pdf\"target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(19105, 2937, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(19501, 2998, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(19106, 2938, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(19107, 2938, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(19108, 2938, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19112, 2938, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19116, 2938, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
(19117, 2938, '_section_3', 'field_5d9717e3267cb'),
(19118, 2938, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(19119, 2938, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(19120, 2938, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19128, 2938, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(19480, 2991, 'home_page_seo_content', 'Marcellus Investment Managers was founded in 2018 with the sole purpose of influencing efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We intend to achieve this by channelising household savings towards high quality Indian companies with long track records of clean governance and strong capital allocation. Our approach to portfolio management doesn’t just focus on delivering healthy returns to our investors but also aims to do so by taking relatively low risks.  <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/our-team/\">Marcellus’ core investment management team</a> has been together for 15 years and their journey and learnings over the years underpin its investment management philosophy.\r\n\r\nMarcellus is licensed by SEBI to offer<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/portfolio-management-services/\"> Portfolio Management Services (PMS)</a> and Investment Advisory (IA) services. Our flagship investment product is the<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf\"> Marcellus Consistent Compounders</a> Portfolio Management Services (CCP). CCP’s investment strategy is to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings compounding over long periods with very little volatility. The PMS comes with attractive performance-based fee options which aligns our interests with that of the investor. Furthermore, it has one of the lowest cost structures in the PMS industry with no entry loads, no lock-in and no exit loads. For more details, please see our products page.'),
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(19563, 3001, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19503, 2998, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19507, 2998, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19511, 2998, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19523, 2998, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>');
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(19534, 3000, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19538, 3000, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19542, 3000, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19546, 3000, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19550, 3000, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19552, 3000, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(19554, 3000, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(19558, 3000, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(19567, 3001, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19571, 3001, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19575, 3001, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19579, 3001, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(19581, 3001, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(19582, 3001, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(19583, 3001, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(19584, 3001, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(19585, 3001, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
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(19587, 3001, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_little-champs_presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(19590, 3002, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(19591, 3002, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(19595, 3002, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(19599, 3002, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(19611, 3002, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(20309, 3105, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(20313, 3105, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(20317, 3105, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(20321, 3105, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20325, 3105, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20327, 3105, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(20329, 3105, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(20333, 3105, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_little-champs_presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(20337, 3106, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(20341, 3106, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(20345, 3106, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(20348, 3106, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(20349, 3106, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20353, 3106, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20355, 3106, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(20356, 3106, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(20357, 3106, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(20361, 3106, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_little-champs_presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(20388, 3118, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(20392, 3118, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(20396, 3118, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(20400, 3118, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020-1.pdf\">31st Dec\'2019</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2693 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Bar-Graph_31st-Dec.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"932\" height=\"594\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20404, 3118, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q1FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2698 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Graph-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"807\" height=\"518\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(20406, 3118, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(20408, 3118, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(20622, 3163, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(20646, 3163, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(21367, 3300, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21369, 3300, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(21371, 3300, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21359, 3300, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21363, 3300, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">31st March 2020</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3161\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-052537.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"456\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(21355, 3300, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21382, 3302, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21386, 3302, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21390, 3302, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21394, 3302, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">31st March 2020</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3161\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-052537.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"456\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21398, 3302, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21400, 3302, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(21402, 3302, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21404, 3302, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(21405, 3302, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(21406, 3302, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.phttps://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdfdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(21407, 3302, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(21409, 3303, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(21410, 3303, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21413, 3303, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(21414, 3303, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21418, 3303, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21430, 3303, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22481, 3454, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(22485, 3454, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(22937, 3541, 'home-banner-content', '<img src=\"/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/banner-quote.png\" alt=\"\" />\r\n<h1>INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT</h1>\r\n<h2>SHOULD BE LIKE WATCHING GRASS GROW OR PAINT DRY</h2>\r\n- Paul Samuelson\r\n\r\n<!-- <a href=\"#\">KNOW MORE</a> -->'),
(21443, 3306, 'home-banner-content', '<img src=\"/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/banner-quote.png\" alt=\"\" />\r\n<h1>INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT</h1>\r\n<h2>SHOULD BE LIKE WATCHING GRASS GROW OR PAINT DRY</h2>\r\n- Paul Samuelson\r\n\r\n<!-- <a href=\"#\">KNOW MORE</a> -->'),
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(21447, 3306, 'home_page_seo_content', 'Marcellus Investment Managers was founded in 2018 with the sole purpose of influencing efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We intend to achieve this by channelising household savings towards high quality Indian companies with long track records of clean governance and strong capital allocation. Our approach to portfolio management doesn’t just focus on delivering healthy returns to our investors but also aims to do so by taking relatively low risks.  <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/our-team/\">Marcellus’ core investment management team</a> has been together for 15 years and their journey and learnings over the years underpin its investment management philosophy.\r\n\r\nMarcellus is licensed by SEBI to offer<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/portfolio-management-services/\"> Portfolio Management Services (PMS)</a> and Investment Advisory (IA) services. Our flagship investment product is the<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf\"> Marcellus Consistent Compounders</a> Portfolio Management Services (CCP). CCP’s investment strategy is to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings compounding over long periods with very little volatility. The PMS comes with attractive performance-based fee options which aligns our interests with that of the investor. Furthermore, it has one of the lowest cost structures in the PMS industry with no entry loads, no lock-in and no exit loads. For more details, please see our products page.'),
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(22507, 3457, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22519, 3457, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21477, 3316, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21481, 3316, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21485, 3316, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21489, 3316, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">31st March 2020</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3161\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-052537.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"456\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21493, 3316, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21495, 3316, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(21497, 3316, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21501, 3316, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_postmeta` (`meta_id`, `post_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(22531, 3458, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21509, 3319, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21513, 3319, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21517, 3319, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21520, 3319, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(21521, 3319, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\">April 30</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3318 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"718\" height=\"425\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21525, 3319, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(21526, 3319, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(21527, 3319, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(21528, 3319, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(21529, 3319, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21537, 3320, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21541, 3320, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21545, 3320, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21553, 3320, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21557, 3320, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22547, 3458, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22205, 3427, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21894, 3389, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21898, 3389, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21902, 3389, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21906, 3389, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\">April 30</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3318 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"718\" height=\"425\" />'),
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(21910, 3389, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21914, 3389, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(21918, 3389, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent_Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(21921, 3390, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(21922, 3390, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21926, 3390, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(21930, 3390, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(21938, 3390, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(21942, 3390, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22201, 3427, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(21958, 3391, 'video_transcript', 'This time we had guest speakers – Dr Mark Mobius and Rajesh Sehgal sharing their thoughts on investing in these times in general and India and small caps in particular. We also shared an update about our Little Champs portfolio – presented by Saurabh Mukherjea, CIO and Ashvin Shetty, Fund manager and followed by a Q&amp;A session with the audience. Speaker profiles: Dr Mark Mobius, Founder of Mobius Capital Partners: Prior to launching Mobius Capital in 2018, Dr Mobius was with Franklin Templeton investments for more than 30yrs, most recently as executive chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group. His name is synonymous with emerging market investments. Dr Mark Mobius has spent more than 40 years working in global emerging markets and has received numerous industry awards such as Bloomberg Markets Magazine’s “50 Most Influential People” in 2011, AsiaMoney Magazine’s “Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People” Rajesh Sehgal, Managing Partner of Equanimity Ventures: A Wharton alumni, Rajesh has earlier obtained a management degree from XLRI specialising in Finance and Marketing. He is a CFA charter holder and has earned a post graduate diploma in securities law. Today, Rajesh is the Managing Partner of Equanimity Investments, after having made 22 angel investments since 2007 and having had a ringside view of the overall startup ecosystem over the past decade. Prior to founding Equanimity, Rajesh spent close to two decades at Franklin Templeton across emerging markets and private equity. Visit https://marcellus.in/portfolio-management-services/ for more info.'),
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(22469, 3454, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22161, 3421, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22165, 3421, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22169, 3421, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22177, 3421, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(22179, 3421, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120_compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(22181, 3421, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22209, 3427, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22217, 3427, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(22221, 3427, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22236, 3431, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22240, 3431, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22244, 3431, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22256, 3431, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22271, 3433, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22275, 3433, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22283, 3433, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(22287, 3433, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22650, 3490, 'source', 'Politico (<a href=\"https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/24/up-in-smoke-marijuana-med-men-249301\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/05/24/up-in-smoke-marijuana-med-men-249301</a>)'),
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(22300, 3436, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22304, 3436, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22308, 3436, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22320, 3436, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22328, 3437, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22332, 3437, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22336, 3437, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22348, 3437, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22359, 3439, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22363, 3439, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22367, 3439, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22427, 3450, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(22431, 3450, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(22435, 3450, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(22439, 3450, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\">April 30</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3318 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"718\" height=\"425\" />'),
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(22443, 3450, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(22445, 3450, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(22447, 3450, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(22451, 3450, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus-little-champs-presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(23795, 3700, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(23767, 3699, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
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(23771, 3699, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(23775, 3699, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(23779, 3699, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\">April 30</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3318 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"718\" height=\"425\" />'),
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(23783, 3699, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(23784, 3699, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(23785, 3699, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
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(23787, 3699, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(23788, 3699, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(23789, 3699, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(23790, 3699, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(23791, 3699, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_consistent-compounders/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Marcellus_Little-Champs_presentation.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(23792, 3699, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(23796, 3700, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
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(23799, 3700, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
(23800, 3700, '_section_2', 'field_5d9717dc267ca'),
(23801, 3700, 'section_3_tab_name', 'FEE structure'),
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(23803, 3700, 'section_3', '<h2>Fee Structure</h2>\r\n<b>Marcellus offers Consistent Compounders Portfolio with zero fixed fees</b>\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders PMS comes with ZERO entry load/exit load and with no lock-in. Our clients can choose any of the following fee structures:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a fixed fees model (2% p.a. fixed fees + zero performance fees) or</li>\r\n 	<li>a variable fees model (zero fixed fees + performance fees of 20% profit share above a hurdle of 8%, no catch-up)*</li>\r\n 	<li>3.a hybrid model (1% p.a. fixed fees + performance fees of 15% profit share above a hurdle of 12%, no catch-up).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<i>High water mark applies for performance fees</i>\r\n\r\nMinimum investment: INR 50 lacs'),
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(23805, 3700, 'section_4_tab_name', 'Performance'),
(23806, 3700, '_section_4_tab_name', 'field_5d9717b71d878'),
(23807, 3700, 'section_4', '<h2>Performance</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance as on <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders.pdf\">April 30</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3318 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"718\" height=\"425\" />'),
(23808, 3700, '_section_4', 'field_5d9717ea267cc'),
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(23810, 3700, '_section_5_tab_name', 'field_5d9717bf1d879'),
(23811, 3700, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
(23812, 3700, '_section_5', 'field_5d9717f2267cd'),
(23813, 3700, 'other_products', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/CCP-DISCLOSURE-DOCUMENT.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Disclosure-Document-PMS-LCP-20191120.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(23814, 3700, '_other_products', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(23815, 3700, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
(23816, 3700, '_books', 'field_5d97181a78f3b'),
(23817, 3700, 'Disclosure_Documents', ''),
(23818, 3700, '_Disclosure_Documents', 'field_5d97181378f3a'),
(23819, 3700, 'product_presentation', '<h4 class=\"product-name\">Consistent Compounders</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_consistent-compounders/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>\r\n\r\n<hr />\r\n\r\n<h4 class=\"product-name\">Little Champs</h4>\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://marcellus.in/marcellus_little-champs_presentation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Know more</a>'),
(23820, 3700, '_product_presentation', 'field_5da455be3228e'),
(23821, 3701, 'section_1_tab_name', 'Alternative Investing Idea'),
(23822, 3701, '_section_1_tab_name', 'field_5d97177d1d874'),
(23823, 3701, 'section_1', '<h2>AN ALTERNATIVE RECIPE FOR INVESTING IN INDIA COMES FROM CALIFORNIA</h2>\r\nRob Kirby, in a note written in 1984 (in the Journal of Portfolio Management), narrated an incident involving his client’s husband. The gentleman had purchased stocks recommended by Kirby in denominations of US$5000 each but, unlike Kirby, did not sell anything from the portfolio. This process (of buying when Kirby bought but not selling thereafter) led to enormous wealth creation over a period of about ten years.\r\n\r\nThe wealth creation was mainly on account of one position transforming to a holding worth nearly $1m in Xerox. Impressed the power of this approach - of buying great companies and then letting them for ten years - Kirby coined the term “Coffee Can Portfolio”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1869 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"658\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\nNearly 40 years later, Peter Thiel hit upon the same insight but this time in the context of the VC investing – great VC portfolios are defined by a couple of blazing winners at the end of ten years. Thiel calls this the “Power Law”.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1870 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/alternative-investing-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"659\" height=\"342\" />'),
(23824, 3701, '_section_1', 'field_5d9717921d875'),
(23825, 3701, 'section_2_tab_name', 'Consistent Compounders Strategy'),
(23826, 3701, '_section_2_tab_name', 'field_5d9717a61d876'),
(23827, 3701, 'section_2', '<h2>MARCELLUS’ CONSISTENT COMPOUNDERS – THE STRATEGY</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent\r\nCompounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable\r\ncompetitive moats to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive\r\nprimary research Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n<div class=\"section-tab\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li class=\"active\">The Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>The Power of a Filter based approach</li>\r\n 	<li>So how do we (as fund manager) add value</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"section-tab-content\"><section class=\"section-content-item\">We create a list of stocks using a twin-filter criteria of double digit YoY revenue growth and return on capital being in excess of cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row.Next, we build a portfolio of such stocks each year and hold each of these annual iterations of portfolios for the subsequent 10 years (without any churn).The bar chart on the right shows the backtesting performance of such a filter based portfolio.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1871 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/strategy.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"376\" height=\"283\" />\r\nThere are two conclusions from this exercise:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>This filter based portfolio delivers returns of 20-30% p.a. and 8-12% outperformance relative to the Sensex.</li>\r\n 	<li>The volatility of returns of such portfolios, for holding periods longer than 3 years, is similar to that of a Government Bond</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nReturns here (both for our portfolio and for the Sensex) are on a Total Shareholder Return basis i.e. all dividends are included in the returns.\r\n\r\n</section><section class=\"section-content-item\"><strong>Unique DNA of these companies: </strong>By “filtering in” companies with a history of very consistent fundamentals over very long time periods, the portfolio is skewed towards companies with a DNA built around relentlessly deepening their competitive moats despite disruptive changes taking place both inside as well as outside the organization. More often than not, such DNA sustains over the subsequent 5-10 years investment horizon of the filter based approach.<strong>Power of compounding: </strong>Holding a portfolio of stocks untouched for 10 years allows the power of compounding to play out, such that the portfolio becomes dominated by the winning stocks while losing stocks keep declining to eventually become inconsequential.<strong>Avoiding the pitfalls of psychology and reducing transaction costs: </strong>Being patient with a portfolio helps cut out ‘noise’ of trying to time entry / exit decisions. With no churn, this filter based approach also reduces transaction costs. Consider two data points: (a) In a portfolio with 70% churn (average churn of large cap mutual funds), 20bps broking cost and 30bps impact cost, churn reduces the terminal value of the portfolio (after 10 years) by 10% (i.e. a drag of 120bps on the 10-year CAGR); and (b) deferring the 10% long term capital gains tax payable on the portfolio by 10 years enhances the terminal value of the portfolio by 8% (i.e. 100bps increase in the 10-year CAGR) vs a portfolio where capital gains are paid each year.</section><section class=\"section-content-item\">The Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, to help generate outperformance of 4-5% per annum over and above these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:<strong>Portfolio concentration: </strong>The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals: </strong>Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven: </strong>For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.</section></div>'),
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(23839, 3701, 'section_5', '<h2>Portfolio Fundamentals-Q4FY20</h2>\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS performance\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3162\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Annotation-2020-04-20-053018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"504\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;'),
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(23843, 3701, 'books', '<h5 class=\"books-sale-title\">Three bestselling books which will give you more information about our investment philosophy</h5>\r\n<div class=\"books-wrap\">\r\n<div class=\"owl-carousel owl-theme product-books\">\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/book-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nCoffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Coffee-Can-Investing-Stupendous-Wealth/dp/067009045X\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nGurus of Chaos: Modern India\'s Money Masters\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Gurus-Chaos-Modern-Indias-Masters/dp/9384052558\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"item\">\r\n<figure><img src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/img1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"262\" height=\"181\" /></figure>\r\nThe Unusual Billionaires\r\n\r\n<a class=\"view-detail\" href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0143426737\">Buy Now</a>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>'),
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(339, 1, '2018-08-04 04:59:42', '2018-08-04 04:59:42', 'Our desire to see India change for the better results in us overestimating the pace of change in the country in the short-medium run. This creates valuation anomalies that one can profit from. Selling wholesale market funded lenders and buying IT and pharma stocks would be the obvious way to profit from disruptions in the market’s pre-conceived notions of change in India.\r\n\r\n\"Falling farm incomes in rural Maharashtra might be an important factor fuelling the current spate of protests by the Marathas, who are demanding reservation in educational institutions and government jobs. The net returns from farming….declined for most of the major crops in the state between 2006-07 and 2014-15, reveals an analysis of data available from official sources…\" – windialives.com quoted in The Mint on 2nd August 2018\r\n\r\n<strong>The India which changes…</strong>\r\n\r\nWhen I moved to India in May 2008 I met several people who believed that the country was changing for the better. Within months the global financial crisis engulfed in India and no sooner had the after-effects of that worn off, the country was hit by a series of major corruption scandals which jammed the capex cycle so comprehensively that it still hasn’t recovered. Investors who had bet on capex-centric stocks a decade ago obviously suffered in the wake of this savage reversal in the capex cycle.\r\n\r\nMore recently, for the first time in Indian history, we are seeing annual flows into financial savings exceed those into physical savings. The cost of capital has fallen – the ten year bond old is between 7.5-8% now whereas it was 1.5x that rate at the turn of the century. Availability of debt and equity capital for SMEs seems better now than\r\nit was a decade ago not least because of the existence of numerous private sector lenders (who borrow funds from an active wholesale money market). Direct tax collections are growing at 18-19% per annum every year and the early signs with regards to GST are promising.\r\n\r\nSo why is it that inspite of these positive developments over the past decade, the country finds itself with a burgeoning current account deficit (expected to be close to 3% of GDP in FY19 as against 1.9% of GDP in FY18), a weakening currency (the INR is down 7% versus the USD in CY18 so far), incipient inflationary pressures (at 5% the\r\nCPI is well above the RBI’s target of 4%), rising interest rates (the ten year bond yield is up 150 bps over the past 12 months), a broken banking system (stressed assets account for 12% of loans outstanding) and a comatose capex cycle?\r\n\r\n<strong>…interplays with the Indian which doesn\'t</strong>\r\n\r\nThere is one major constant in India - the interplay between the Government and politically active voters - is stubbornly resistant to change. Most readers of this piece do NOT constitute a politically active vote bank because they do not act in concert to lobby for subsidies and favours. Politically active voters are not only farmers, they are not only rural voters but they also include their extended families who might have migrated to the cities (but who are firmly plugged into rural politics for reasons which seem to revolve as much around identity/caste/jati as economics).\r\n\r\nMost of these politically active vote banks still do not have robust sources of income either because they are working on unproductive asset (eg. as a hired labourer on a farm) or because they can be squeezed very easily by more powerful agents in the supply chain (eg. agricultural middlemen who control the APMC wholesale markets and who themselves are skilled political lobbyists). Hence the economic viability of these political active vote banks hinges on the largesse of the Indian state for things like NREGA (which puts a floor on wages for farm labour) or farm loan waivers or subsidised fertiliser (both of which are mitigants for the rent seeking activities of politically connected middlemen). It is not surprising therefore that spend on NREGA has risen at a CAGR of 17% over the past 5 years. Farm loan waivers are expected to rise to US$40 bn (1.5% of GDP) by the General Elections next year and the fertiliser subsidy accounts for 3% of the Government’s spend. Anyone who believes that these numbers will drop then has to convince the rest of us that the central narrative in Indian political life will change.\r\n\r\nHandouts aside, there is another route via which the politically active vote banks draw succour from the Indian state. The state is the main provider of healthcare (low cost medicines, dispensaries), education (free schooling and subsidised colleges), power (electricity and kerosene), transport (roads, trains, buses) and law &amp; order (cops,\r\ncourts, not mobs) for these groups. Whilst the quality of these services that the Government provides is uneven, increasing the outlay on these items gives political parties more leverage on their vote banks. Overall Government spending (the Centre plus the states) now stands at 26% of GDP down marginally from 28% 15 years ago\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nThe dynamics of the great game creates some macroeconomic constants which one can use to invest profitably in Indian stocks:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The low productivity of labour and of farm land reduces the overall productivity of the Indian economy. As a result, to stay competitive, the Indian economy needs the INR to slide by at least 3-4% per annum to the USD. When such a devaluation hasn’t happened for five years and when one can see that the competitiveness of exporters (of goods and services) has been damaged then one knows that a major correction in the INR is overdue. Hence my reckoning is that the INR will breach Rs 70/USD with oil prices and domestic inflation\r\nbeing the obvious catalysts for this. Therefore, as I have been saying for the past 8 months, buying leading IT Services, Pharma and Chemical exporters make sense as does unearthing smaller companies who have credible export franchises.</li>\r\n 	<li>This November three key northern Indian states will head into Assembly Elections and then the General Elections beckon. Hence as we move into the festive season, one should expect money to be showered on vote banks, inflation to rise (as low income voters splurge their cash) and interest rates to rise (in response to inflation rising). This has two straightforward investment implications – one should buy companies which make money in rural Indian (FMCG, tractor and two wheeler companies) and one should sell lenders who\r\nborrow money in the wholesale market (especially if these lenders lend to urban consumers like you and me).\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. The views expressed are personal.</li>\r\n</ul>', 'Reversion to the mean in politics & investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'reversion-to-the-mean-in-politics-investing', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:42:54', '2019-11-04 09:42:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=339', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(117, 1, '2018-11-26 13:54:51', '2018-11-26 13:54:51', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-26 13:54:51', '2018-11-26 13:54:51', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(626, 1, '2019-03-15 06:16:51', '2019-03-15 06:16:51', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-15 06:16:51', '2019-03-15 06:16:51', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(22, 1, '2018-11-09 10:13:52', '2018-11-09 10:13:52', '', 'our-team-2', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'our-team-2', '', '', '2018-11-09 10:13:52', '2018-11-09 10:13:52', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/our-team-2.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(21, 1, '2018-11-09 10:13:51', '2018-11-09 10:13:51', '', 'Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'our-team-1', '', '', '2019-10-19 08:14:59', '2019-10-19 08:14:59', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/our-team-1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
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(28, 1, '2018-11-12 04:57:10', '2018-11-12 04:57:10', '<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n    [text* text-996 class:form-control placeholder\"Name\"]\r\n</div>\r\n\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n    [email* email-563 class:form-control placeholder\"Email\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n[tel tel-182 class:form-control placeholder\"Phone number\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-12\">\r\n    [textarea your-message class:form-control placeholder\"Enter your message\"] \r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n[submit \"Submit\"]\n1\nInquiry for Distributor\n[text-996] <no-reply@marcellus.in>\npramod@marcellus.in,nick@marcellus.in,nitesh@marcellus.in,pooja@marcellus.in\n<!DOCTYPE html>\r\n<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\">\r\n<head>\r\n    <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\r\n    <title></title>\r\n</head>\r\n<body>\r\n    <table width=\"600px\" cellspacing=\"0\" align=\"center\" cellpadding=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"border:1px solid #ccc; background:#fff;\">\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#fff; border-bottom: solid 1px #ccc;\">\r\n                <a href=\"#\" title=\"\"><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/logo.png\" title=\"\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"10\" vspace=\"10\" /></a>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"padding:25px 15px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12px; color:#333;\">\r\n                <table width=\"100%\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"2\" cellpadding=\"3\" style=\"padding-left:10px; padding-right:10px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #333; font-weight: standard;\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td height=\"39\" colspan=\"3\">\r\n                            <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">Dear Admin,</b> <br /> <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">You have received the following enquiry from the website.</b> </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">First Name</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[text-996]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">Last Name</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[text-371]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"email\">Email</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[email-563]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"Subject\">Contact Number</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[tel-182]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"message\">Message</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[your-message]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td colspan=\"3\">&nbsp;</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#FFF; border-top:1px solid #ccc;\">\r\n                <table width=\"600\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td style=\"text-align:left; padding:6px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:11px; color:#333;\">\r\n                            Copyright 2018 Marcellus. All Rights Reserved.<br /><br />\r\n\r\n                        </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n    </table>\r\n</body>\r\n</html>\n\n\n1\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@mshop.php-dev.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'Contact distributor', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'contact-form-1', '', '', '2019-11-14 11:12:36', '2019-11-14 11:12:36', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&#038;p=28', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
(29, 1, '2018-11-12 04:58:00', '2018-11-12 04:58:00', '<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n    [text* text-604 class:form-control placeholder\"Name\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n    [email* email-510 class:form-control placeholder\"Email\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n[tel tel-299 class:form-control placeholder\"Phone Number\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-12\">\r\n\r\n    [textarea your-message class:form-control placeholder\"Enter your message\"] \r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n[submit \"Submit\"]\n1\nInquiry for Investor\n[text-604] <noreply@marcellus.in>\npramod@marcellus.in,nick@marcellus.in,nitesh@marcellus.in,pooja@marcellus.in\n<!DOCTYPE html>\r\n<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\">\r\n<head>\r\n    <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\r\n    <title></title>\r\n</head>\r\n<body>\r\n    <table width=\"600px\" cellspacing=\"0\" align=\"center\" cellpadding=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"border:1px solid #ccc; background:#fff;\">\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#fff; border-bottom: solid 1px #ccc;\">\r\n                <a href=\"#\" title=\"\"><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/logo.png\" title=\"\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"10\" vspace=\"10\" /></a>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"padding:25px 15px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12px; color:#333;\">\r\n                <table width=\"100%\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"2\" cellpadding=\"3\" style=\"padding-left:10px; padding-right:10px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #333; font-weight: standard;\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td height=\"39\" colspan=\"3\">\r\n                            <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">Dear Admin,</b> <br /> <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">You have received the following enquiry from the website.</b> </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">First Name</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[text-604]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">Last Name</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[text-373]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"email\">Email</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[email-510]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"Subject\">Contact Number</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[tel-299]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"message\">Message</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[your-message]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td colspan=\"3\">&nbsp;</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#FFF; border-top:1px solid #ccc;\">\r\n                <table width=\"600\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td style=\"text-align:left; padding:6px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:11px; color:#333;\">\r\n                            Copyright 2018 Marcellus. All Rights Reserved.<br /><br />\r\n\r\n                        </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n    </table>\r\n</body>\r\n</html>\n\n\n1\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@mshop.php-dev.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'contact investor', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'contact-form-investor', '', '', '2019-11-14 11:12:34', '2019-11-14 11:12:34', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&#038;p=29', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
(30, 1, '2018-11-12 07:19:53', '2018-11-12 07:19:53', '', 'books-bg', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'books-bg', '', '', '2018-11-12 07:19:53', '2018-11-12 07:19:53', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/books-bg.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(31, 1, '2018-11-12 08:26:50', '2018-11-12 08:26:50', '', 'coffee-can-investing-book', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-book', '', '', '2018-11-12 08:26:50', '2018-11-12 08:26:50', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/coffee-can-investing-book.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(32, 1, '2018-11-12 08:26:52', '2018-11-12 08:26:52', '', 'gurus-chaos-book', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gurus-chaos-book', '', '', '2018-11-12 08:26:52', '2018-11-12 08:26:52', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/gurus-chaos-book.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(33, 1, '2018-11-12 08:26:53', '2018-11-12 08:26:53', '', 'unusual-billionaires', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'unusual-billionaires', '', '', '2018-11-12 08:26:53', '2018-11-12 08:26:53', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/unusual-billionaires.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
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(35, 1, '2018-11-12 09:35:27', '2018-11-12 09:35:27', 'a:7:{s:8:\"location\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"param\";s:4:\"page\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:2:\"15\";}}}s:8:\"position\";s:6:\"normal\";s:5:\"style\";s:7:\"default\";s:15:\"label_placement\";s:3:\"top\";s:21:\"instruction_placement\";s:5:\"label\";s:14:\"hide_on_screen\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"description\";s:0:\"\";}', 'home-banner-content', 'home-banner-content', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'group_5be9492c41c95', '', '', '2019-08-26 11:35:17', '2019-08-26 11:35:17', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=acf-field-group&#038;p=35', 0, 'acf-field-group', '', 0),
(36, 1, '2018-11-12 09:35:27', '2018-11-12 09:35:27', 'a:10:{s:4:\"type\";s:7:\"wysiwyg\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:4:\"tabs\";s:3:\"all\";s:7:\"toolbar\";s:4:\"full\";s:12:\"media_upload\";i:1;s:5:\"delay\";i:0;}', 'home-banner-content', 'home-banner-content', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5be9492ab9138', '', '', '2018-11-12 09:35:27', '2018-11-12 09:35:27', '', 35, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=acf-field&p=36', 0, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(37, 1, '2018-11-12 09:37:42', '2018-11-12 09:37:42', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-12 09:37:42', '2018-11-12 09:37:42', '', 15, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?p=37', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(38, 1, '2018-11-12 09:47:24', '2018-11-12 09:47:24', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020.pdf\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'investment-philosophy', '', '', '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?page_id=38', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(39, 1, '2018-11-12 09:47:24', '2018-11-12 09:47:24', 'At Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-12 09:47:24', '2018-11-12 09:47:24', '', 38, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?p=39', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(41, 1, '2018-11-12 10:25:00', '2018-11-12 10:25:00', 'a:7:{s:8:\"location\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"param\";s:9:\"post_type\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:4:\"team\";}}}s:8:\"position\";s:6:\"normal\";s:5:\"style\";s:7:\"default\";s:15:\"label_placement\";s:3:\"top\";s:21:\"instruction_placement\";s:5:\"label\";s:14:\"hide_on_screen\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"description\";s:0:\"\";}', 'our team', 'our-team', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'group_5be954c68f155', '', '', '2019-07-17 07:09:46', '2019-07-17 07:09:46', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=acf-field-group&#038;p=41', 0, 'acf-field-group', '', 0),
(45, 1, '2018-11-12 10:27:51', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'Chief investment officer', 'Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2018-11-12 10:27:51', '2018-11-12 10:27:51', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=ourteam&#038;p=45', 0, 'ourteam', '', 0),
(47, 1, '2018-11-01 10:52:32', '2018-11-01 10:52:32', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Saurabh Mukherjea is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of <a href=\"/our-team/\">Marcellus Investment Managers</a>. Marcellus Investment Managers was incorporated in August 2018 and the firm’s application to conduct Portfolio Management Services was approved by SEBI in October 2018 and provides <a href=\"/products/\">portfolio management service</a>. He is the former CEO of Ambit Capital and played a key role in Ambit’s rise as a broker and a wealth manager. When Saurabh left Ambit in June 2018, assets under advisory were $800mn.</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Saurabh was educated at the London School of Economics where he earned a BSc in Economics (with First Class Honours) and MSc in Economics (with distinction in Macro &amp; Microeconomics).</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In London, Saurabh was the co-founder of Clear Capital and in 2007 he was rated by the Extel Survey as one of the top small cap analysts in the UK.  In India, Saurabh was rated as the leading equity strategist in 2015, 2016 and 2017 by the Asiamoney polls. Saurabh is a CFA charter holder and a SEBI registered investment advisor. In 2017, upon SEBI’s invitation, he joined SEBI’s Asset Management Advisory Committee.In 2019, Saurabh was part of the Expert Committee constituted by SEBI to update and upgrade the PMS regulations. Saurabh has written three bestselling books: Gurus of Chaos (2014), The Unusual Billionaires (2016) and “Coffee Can Investing: The low risk route to stupendous wealth” (2018).</p>', 'Saurabh Mukherjea, CFA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'saurabh-mukherjea-cfa', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:14:24', '2020-04-16 12:14:24', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=team&#038;p=47', 0, 'team', '', 0),
(49, 1, '2018-11-04 10:54:07', '2018-11-04 10:54:07', 'Manish is one of the Founders of Marcellus. Manish comes from quantitative data analytics and research background, and has more than 12 years of experience working with banks and financial institutions across east-Asia, India and Europe. Prior to founding Marcellus, he founded Crosstab Limited (2011), a London based quantitative data analytics outfit. Prior to that he worked with a Mumbai based boutique analytics consulting firm.\r\n\r\nManish holds an MBA from University of Warwick - Warwick Business School (UK).', 'Manish Hemnani, MBA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'manish-hemnani', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:12:36', '2020-04-16 12:12:36', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=team&#038;p=49', 0, 'team', '', 0),
(50, 1, '2018-11-02 10:53:47', '2018-11-02 10:53:47', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the final two years of his 8 year stint in Ambit Capital, Pramod was Managing Director &amp; Head of Institutional Equities (from 2016 to 2018). Prior to that Pramod, served as the head of Ambit’s Singapore office from 2013-2016. Before joining Ambit, Pramod worked across sales and research functions at Clear Capital, a British equity research firm. Pramod is Head of Sales in Marcellus and manages the sales &amp; marketing efforts of the firm. He also sits on Investment Committee that discusses and approves<a href=\"/products/\"> investment strategies</a> of the firm.</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besides being a technology analyst, Pramod has served in technology firms such as HCL Technologies and Philips Semiconductors’ Indian arm in Business Development and Engineering respectively.</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Qualifications : </strong>Pramod is CFA charter holder with a B.Tech from Regional Engineering College, Surathkal and a Post-graduate Diploma in Management from the Indian Institute of Management – Ahmedabad.</p>', 'Pramod Gubbi, CFA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pramod-gubbi-cfa', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:14:18', '2020-04-16 12:14:18', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=team&#038;p=50', 0, 'team', '', 0),
(51, 1, '2018-11-06 10:54:19', '2018-11-06 10:54:19', 'Prior to joining Marcellus, Sudhanshu was Executive Assistant to the CEO at Ambit Capital and worked in the Institutional Equities’ Strategy team. He has also worked with KPMG in the statutory audit team from 2013 to 2016 gaining extensive experience across Indian accounting standards, financial control systems and financial statement analysis &amp; reviews.\r\n\r\nQualifications : Sudhanshu is a qualified Chartered Accountant and a CFA Level 3 candidate. He has completed his graduation in Commerce from Mumbai University.', 'Sudhanshu Nahta, CA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sudhanshu-nahta', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:10:32', '2020-04-16 12:10:32', '', 0, 'http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/?post_type=team&#038;p=51', 0, 'team', '', 0),
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(653, 1, '2019-03-17 13:43:05', '2019-03-17 13:43:05', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '17-march-2019', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:43:05', '2019-03-17 13:43:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=653', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(99, 1, '2018-11-26 06:43:29', '2018-11-26 06:43:29', 'At Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"#\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-26 06:43:29', '2018-11-26 06:43:29', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=99', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(100, 1, '2018-11-26 07:00:46', '2018-11-26 07:00:46', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"#\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-26 07:00:46', '2018-11-26 07:00:46', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=100', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(106, 1, '2018-11-26 07:14:33', '2018-11-26 07:14:33', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"#\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-26 07:14:33', '2018-11-26 07:14:33', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2456, 1, '2019-11-15 12:02:54', '2019-11-15 12:02:54', '<div class=\"row footer-e-s-form\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12 sname\">\r\n<label>[text* your-name class:f-i-s placeholder \"Name\"]</label>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 semail\">\r\n<label>[email* your-email class:f-i-s placeholder \"Email\"]</label>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 stel\">\r\n<label>[tel* tel-971 class:f-i-s placeholder \"Phone number\"]</label>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 sotp\" id=\"fo-s-bt\">\r\n[submit \"Submit\"]\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\n1\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\nrajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\nFrom: [your-name] <[your-email]>\r\nSubject: [your-subject]\r\n\r\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (https://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: [your-email]\n\n\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (https://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'Subscription Form', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'subscription-form', '', '', '2019-11-15 12:08:13', '2019-11-15 12:08:13', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&#038;p=2456', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(134, 1, '2018-11-27 10:41:47', '2018-11-27 10:41:47', '<h4>January 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_6Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_13Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">13th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>December 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_23Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_30Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>November 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Three Longs & Three Shorts', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:11:58', '2019-06-26 09:11:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=134', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(131, 1, '2019-04-26 10:33:41', '2019-04-26 10:33:41', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletters Consistent Compounders', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'newsletters', '', '', '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=131', 0, 'page', '', 0),
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(266, 1, '2018-12-19 06:43:02', '2018-12-19 06:43:02', 'a:10:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"file\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"return_format\";s:3:\"url\";s:7:\"library\";s:3:\"all\";s:8:\"min_size\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"max_size\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"mime_types\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Upload PDF', 'upload_pdf', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5c19e837ca78d', '', '', '2018-12-19 06:43:02', '2018-12-19 06:43:02', '', 265, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&p=266', 0, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(125, 1, '2018-11-27 10:23:44', '2018-11-27 10:23:44', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a Company Secretary with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-27 10:23:44', '2018-11-27 10:23:44', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(126, 1, '2018-11-27 10:24:31', '2018-11-27 10:24:31', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-27 10:24:31', '2018-11-27 10:24:31', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(127, 1, '2018-11-27 10:29:07', '2018-11-27 10:29:07', '<strong>Coffee Can Investing </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat if there really were a way to realize not 10, not even 15, but 20% compound annual growth rate on your investments? What if there was a way to grow your money four to five times whilst taking half the risk compared to the overall market? Best-selling author of <em>Gurus of Chaos</em> and <em>The Unusual Billionaires</em>, Saurabh Mukherjea puts his money where his mouth is. Saurabh follows the <strong>Coffee Can</strong> approach to high-quality, low-risk investing. In his bestseller <strong>Coffee Can Investing</strong>, Saurabh Mukherjea walks you through this unique way of multiplying your capital as much as five times while assuming only half the market risk.\r\n\r\n<strong>The Unusual Billionaires </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat makes a company truly outstanding? What is the secret sauce of delivering successful results over multiple decades? What is common to Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Marico, Berger Paints, Page Industries and Astral Poly?\r\n\r\nThey are Unusual Companies, built by Unusual Billionaires. This book tells the story of these seven companies, handpicked out of 5000 listed on the stock exchange. Built by visionary business leaders, they have delivered outstanding results for a decade and more.\r\n\r\nHow did these companies do it? Why couldn’t this be replicated by other companies?\r\nWhat are they doing differently?\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea, bestselling author of Gurus of Chaos, delivers an exceptional book with lessons to learn from these seven businesses. Mukherjea tells you why focusing on the core business is central to corporate success and how a promoter giving up control to the top management could be a boon. He also explains how investors can generate market-beating investment returns from identifying companies such as these using a simple set of metrics.\r\n\r\nThis book is mandatory reading for anyone who wants to understand how business is done successfully in India.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gurus of Chaos </strong>\r\n\r\nEverything in life comes with a price tag. So what exactly is the cost of becoming a successful investor? Is it merely a gift from the Almighty or is it a matter of deliberate and consistent effort? The Indian stock market favours those who take not just the thrill but also the risks involved in becoming successful long-term investors, in their stride. Accompany Saurabh Mukherjea in <strong>Gurus of Chaos</strong>, as he dives into the stories of seven such individuals who went from amateurs to successful investors and gather some invaluable pearls of investment wisdom along the way.', 'Books', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'book-list', '', '', '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=127', 0, 'page', '', 0),
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(136, 1, '2019-06-26 07:09:59', '2019-06-26 07:09:59', '<h4>January 2019</h4>\n<ul>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_6Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6th Jan 2019</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_13Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">13th Jan 2019</a></li>\n</ul>\n\n<h4>December 2018</h4>\n<ul>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\n        <li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_23Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li>\n        <li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_30Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30th Dec 2018</a></li>\n</ul>\n\n<h4>November 2018</h4>\n<ul>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\n</ul>\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\n<ul>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\n</ul>\n', 'Three Longs & Three Shorts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 07:09:59', '2019-06-26 07:09:59', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/134-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(144, 1, '2018-11-27 10:56:03', '2018-11-27 10:56:03', 'November 2018\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOctober 2018\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Three longs & three shorts: What we read', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-27 10:56:03', '2018-11-27 10:56:03', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(145, 1, '2018-11-27 10:56:23', '2018-11-27 10:56:23', '<h3>November 2018</h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>October 2018</h3>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Three longs & three shorts: What we read', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-11-27 10:56:23', '2018-11-27 10:56:23', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(233, 1, '2019-06-06 04:09:29', '2019-06-06 04:09:29', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n1.       <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\n\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\n\n<strong>3.       </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\n\n<strong>4.       </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\n\n<strong>5.       </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\n\n<strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\n1)      People are likely to live longer\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '2nd June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '56-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:09:29', '2019-06-06 04:09:29', '', 56, 'http://marcellus.in/56-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(234, 1, '2018-12-05 14:01:53', '2018-12-05 14:01:53', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-05 14:01:53', '2018-12-05 14:01:53', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(178, 1, '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\">\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“<b>Company</b>”) may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. 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Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'disclaimer', '', '', '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=178', 0, 'page', '', 0),
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(836, 1, '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\">\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“<b>Company</b>”) may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '2019-05-24 09:06:23', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(222, 1, '2018-12-04 11:11:44', '2018-12-04 11:11:44', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">  \r\n   The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited \r\n  (“<b>Company</b>”)  \r\n   may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. \r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 11:11:44', '2018-12-04 11:11:44', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(220, 1, '2018-12-04 09:55:51', '2018-12-04 09:55:51', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b></br>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 09:55:51', '2018-12-04 09:55:51', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(182, 1, '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b></span></span>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '2018-12-04 05:55:00', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(219, 1, '2018-12-04 09:54:38', '2018-12-04 09:54:38', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b></span></span></br>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 09:54:38', '2018-12-04 09:54:38', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(183, 1, '2018-12-04 06:01:13', '2018-12-04 06:01:13', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b></span></span>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:01:13', '2018-12-04 06:01:13', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(184, 1, '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '<div class=\"privacy-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">At Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“</span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Company</b></span></span>”), we are committed to protecting your privacy and utilize technology that gives you the most powerful, safe and convenient online experience. We acknowledge the importance of protecting your personal, financial and transactional information and accept that the personal and other details that you impart to us are to be kept in strict confidence. Further, we also understand that the information provided by you should be used only in the manner which will be beneficial to you.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We consider our relationship with you as invaluable and we will always strive to respect and safeguard your right to privacy. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We recognise the importance of protecting your personal and financial information and shall take all steps to protect the information you share with us. We shall protect the personal details received from you with the same degree of care as we protect our own confidential information of a like nature, in order to prevent the unauthorised use, dissemination, or publication of this information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may use personally identifiable information (which includes but is not limited to, first and last name, physical address, e-mail address, phone number, birth date, and any other information that itself identifies you as a specific individual) for several general purposes, like to fulfil your requests for certain products and services, to keep you up to date on the latest product announcements, software updates, special offers or other information we think you would like to hear about either from us or from our business partners, and to better understand your needs and provide you with better services. We may also use your information to send you promotional materials about services including special offers offered either by us or by third parties. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also use the information furnished by you for the purpose of providing any services to which you subscribe and to notify and/ or contact you regarding any problem with, or the expiry of such services.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Under certain circumstances, we may be required to share the information given by you with the third parties, where we feel they can contribute to add value and improve the quality of services imparted by us to you. We shall take all reasonable steps to ensure that the confidentiality of your information is maintained by imposing strict confidentiality standards on all the third parties with whom we part this information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">All information provided by you to us is only to help us provide better services to you. To ensure high quality services and high degree of value addition to our services, we may combine the information given by you on the website or through other channels.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We shall use the personal information to improve our services and to keep you updated about our new products or information that we think may be of interest to you. We shall endeavour that the information collected from you is used in the right spirit and context in which it is intended to be used. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We would ensure that we collect personal information only to the extent it is necessary to administer our services in the best possible manner and as may be required from time to time under the various rules, regulations and laws of India.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also have to share your personal information wherever it is so required to be disclosed under the existing laws to any of the governmental authority / statutory authority or any other regulatory bodies/ agencies. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our website is restricted by the unique login ID and password which is required to be entered by you each time you want to access your account information. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">You must be very careful in handling the login ID and password and you must ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody, nor do you keep it in writing. It is advisable to change your password periodically. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To enable us to serve you better, it is necessary that your personal information available with us is updated and accurate. Our website enables you to update your personal information and we request you to do so from time to time.</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The website contains links to other websites. We shall not be responsible for the privacy practices or the content of such other websites.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Although, we take appropriate steps to maintain the security of personal information collected from you, but you must understand that the open nature of the internet is such that data may flow over networks without security measures and may be accessed and used by people other than those for whom the data is intended. We assume no responsibility of whatsoever nature as to make good the losses and damages you may incur, due to privacy and/or security breach of your personal information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We reserve the right to change our policy at any time with or without notifying users of the existence of a new privacy statement. This statement and the policies outlined herein are not intended to and do not create any contractual or other legal rights in or on behalf of any party.</span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Privacy Policy', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'privacy-policy', '', '', '2019-05-24 09:05:38', '2019-05-24 09:05:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=184', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(185, 1, '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '', 'Privacy Policy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '184-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '2018-12-04 06:06:41', '', 184, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/184-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(336, 1, '2019-01-08 09:25:50', '2019-01-08 09:25:50', 'Rakshit spent 6 years (2005-2011) covering UK equities with Lloyds Bank (Director, Institutional Equity Research) and Execution Noble (Sector Lead analyst). During these six years, he was ranked amongst the top-3 UK Insurance analysts (Thomson Reuters Extel survey) in the mid-cap space. Since 2011, Rakshit led Ambit Capital\'s consumer research franchise which got voted as No.1 for Discretionary Consumer and within top-3 for Consumer Staples in 2015 and 2016. He launched Ambit\'s Coffee Can PMS in Mar\'17 and managed it till Dec\'18. Under his management, Ambit\'s Coffee Can PMS was one of India\'s top performing equity products during 2018.\n\nRakshit has a B.Tech from IIT (Delhi) and is a CFA charter holder.', 'Rakshit Ranjan, CFA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '335-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-08 09:25:50', '2019-01-08 09:25:50', '', 335, 'http://marcellus.in/335-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(352, 1, '2019-01-16 05:11:08', '2019-01-16 05:11:08', '', 'rakshit-ranjan', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rakshit-ranjan', '', '', '2019-10-19 08:16:43', '2019-10-19 08:16:43', '', 335, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/rakshit-ranjan.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(826, 1, '2019-05-23 07:36:27', '2019-05-23 07:36:27', '<div class=\"privacy-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">At Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“</span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Company</b></span></span>”), we are committed to protecting your privacy and utilize technology that gives you the most powerful, safe and convenient online experience. We acknowledge the importance of protecting your personal, financial and transactional information and accept that the personal and other details that you impart to us are to be kept in strict confidence. Further, we also understand that the information provided by you should be used only in the manner which will be beneficial to you.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We consider our relationship with you as invaluable and we will always strive to respect and safeguard your right to privacy. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We recognise the importance of protecting your personal and financial information and shall take all steps to protect the information you share with us. We shall protect the personal details received from you with the same degree of care as we protect our own confidential information of a like nature, in order to prevent the unauthorised use, dissemination, or publication of this information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may use personally identifiable information (which includes but is not limited to, first and last name, physical address, e-mail address, phone number, birth date, and any other information that itself identifies you as a specific individual) for several general purposes, like to fulfil your requests for certain products and services, to keep you up to date on the latest product announcements, software updates, special offers or other information we think you would like to hear about either from us or from our business partners, and to better understand your needs and provide you with better services. We may also use your information to send you promotional materials about services including special offers offered either by us or by third parties. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also use the information furnished by you for the purpose of providing any services to which you subscribe and to notify and/ or contact you regarding any problem with, or the expiry of such services.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Under certain circumstances, we may be required to share the information given by you with the third parties, where we feel they can contribute to add value and improve the quality of services imparted by us to you. We shall take all reasonable steps to ensure that the confidentiality of your information is maintained by imposing strict confidentiality standards on all the third parties with whom we part this information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">All information provided by you to us is only to help us provide better services to you. To ensure high quality services and high degree of value addition to our services, we may combine the information given by you on the website or through other channels.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We shall use the personal information to improve our services and to keep you updated about our new products or information that we think may be of interest to you. We shall endeavour that the information collected from you is used in the right spirit and context in which it is intended to be used. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We would ensure that we collect personal information only to the extent it is necessary to administer our services in the best possible manner and as may be required from time to time under the various rules, regulations and laws of India.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also have to share your personal information wherever it is so required to be disclosed under the existing laws to any of the governmental authority / statutory authority or any other regulatory bodies/ agencies. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our website is restricted by the unique login ID and password which is required to be entered by you each time you want to access your account information. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">You must be very careful in handling the login ID and password and you must ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody, nor do you keep it in writing. It is advisable to change your password periodically. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To enable us to serve you better, it is necessary that your personal information available with us is updated and accurate. Our website enables you to update your personal information and we request you to do so from time to time.</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The website contains links to other websites. We shall not be responsible for the privacy practices or the content of such other websites.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Although, we take appropriate steps to maintain the security of personal information collected from you, but you must understand that the open nature of the internet is such that data may flow over networks without security measures and may be accessed and used by people other than those for whom the data is intended. We assume no responsibility of whatsoever nature as to make good the losses and damages you may incur, due to privacy and/or security breach of your personal information. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We reserve the right to change our policy at any time with or without notifying users of the existence of a new privacy statement. This statement and the policies outlined herein are not intended to and do not create any contractual or other legal rights in or on behalf of any party.</span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Privacy Policy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '184-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 07:36:27', '2019-05-23 07:36:27', '', 184, 'http://marcellus.in/184-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(189, 1, '2018-12-04 06:18:38', '2018-12-04 06:18:38', '<div class=\"privacy-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">At Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Company</b></span></span>”), we are committed to protecting your privacy and utilize technology that gives you the most powerful, safe and convenient online experience. We acknowledge the importance of protecting your personal, financial and transactional information and accept that the personal and other details that you impart to us are to be kept in strict confidence. Further, we also understand that the information provided by you should be used only in the manner which will be beneficial to you. </span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We consider our relationship with you as invaluable and we will always strive to respect and safeguard your right to privacy. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We recognise the importance of protecting your personal and financial information and shall take all steps to protect the information you share with us. We shall protect the personal details received from you with the same degree of care as we protect our own confidential information of a like nature, in order to prevent the unauthorised use, dissemination, or publication of this information. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may use personally identifiable information (which includes but is not limited to, first and last name, physical address, e-mail address, phone number, birth date, and any other information that itself identifies you as a specific individual) for several general purposes, like to fulfil your requests for certain products and services, to keep you up to date on the latest product announcements, software updates, special offers or other information we think you would like to hear about either from us or from our business partners, and to better understand your needs and provide you with better services. We may also use your information to send you promotional materials about services including special offers offered either by us or by third parties. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also use the information furnished by you for the purpose of providing any services to which you subscribe and to notify and/ or contact you regarding any problem with, or the expiry of such services.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Under certain circumstances, we may be required to share the information given by you with the third parties, where we feel they can contribute to add value and improve the quality of services imparted by us to you. We shall take all reasonable steps to ensure that the confidentiality of your information is maintained by imposing strict confidentiality standards on all the third parties with whom we part this information. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">All information provided by you to us is only to help us provide better services to you. To ensure high quality services and high degree of value addition to our services, we may combine the information given by you on the website or through other channels.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We shall use the personal information to improve our services and to keep you updated about our new products or information that we think may be of interest to you. We shall endeavour that the information collected from you is used in the right spirit and context in which it is intended to be used. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We would ensure that we collect personal information only to the extent it is necessary to administer our services in the best possible manner and as may be required from time to time under the various rules, regulations and laws of India.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also have to share your personal information wherever it is so required to be disclosed under the existing laws to any of the governmental authority / statutory authority or any other regulatory bodies/ agencies. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our website is restricted by the unique login ID and password which is required to be entered by you each time you want to access your account information. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">You must be very careful in handling the login ID and password and you must ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody, nor do you keep it in writing. It is advisable to change your password periodically. </span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To enable us to serve you better, it is necessary that your personal information available with us is updated and accurate. Our website enables you to update your personal information and we request you to do so from time to time.</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The website contains links to other websites. We shall not be responsible for the privacy practices or the content of such other websites.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Although, we take appropriate steps to maintain the security of personal information collected from you, but you must understand that the open nature of the internet is such that data may flow over networks without security measures and may be accessed and used by people other than those for whom the data is intended. We assume no responsibility of whatsoever nature as to make good the losses and damages you may incur, due to privacy and/or security breach of your personal information. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We reserve the right to change our policy at any time with or without notifying users of the existence of a new privacy statement. This statement and the policies outlined herein are not intended to and do not create any contractual or other legal rights in or on behalf of any party.</span></p></div>', 'Privacy Policy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '184-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:18:38', '2018-12-04 06:18:38', '', 184, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/184-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(188, 1, '2018-12-04 06:11:25', '2018-12-04 06:11:25', '<div class=\"privacy-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">At Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">”), we are committed to protecting your privacy and utilize technology that gives you the most powerful, safe and convenient online experience. We acknowledge the importance of protecting your personal, financial and transactional information and accept that the personal and other details that you impart to us are to be kept in strict confidence. Further, we also understand that the information provided by you should be used only in the manner which will be beneficial to you. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We consider our relationship with you as invaluable and we will always strive to respect and safeguard your right to privacy. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We recognise the importance of protecting your personal and financial information and shall take all steps to protect the information you share with us. We shall protect the personal details received from you with the same degree of care as we protect our own confidential information of a like nature, in order to prevent the unauthorised use, dissemination, or publication of this information. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may use personally identifiable information (which includes but is not limited to, first and last name, physical address, e-mail address, phone number, birth date, and any other information that itself identifies you as a specific individual) for several general purposes, like to fulfil your requests for certain products and services, to keep you up to date on the latest product announcements, software updates, special offers or other information we think you would like to hear about either from us or from our business partners, and to better understand your needs and provide you with better services. We may also use your information to send you promotional materials about services including special offers offered either by us or by third parties. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also use the information furnished by you for the purpose of providing any services to which you subscribe and to notify and/ or contact you regarding any problem with, or the expiry of such services.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Under certain circumstances, we may be required to share the information given by you with the third parties, where we feel they can contribute to add value and improve the quality of services imparted by us to you. We shall take all reasonable steps to ensure that the confidentiality of your information is maintained by imposing strict confidentiality standards on all the third parties with whom we part this information. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">All information provided by you to us is only to help us provide better services to you. To ensure high quality services and high degree of value addition to our services, we may combine the information given by you on the website or through other channels.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We shall use the personal information to improve our services and to keep you updated about our new products or information that we think may be of interest to you. We shall endeavour that the information collected from you is used in the right spirit and context in which it is intended to be used. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We would ensure that we collect personal information only to the extent it is necessary to administer our services in the best possible manner and as may be required from time to time under the various rules, regulations and laws of India.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We may also have to share your personal information wherever it is so required to be disclosed under the existing laws to any of the governmental authority / statutory authority or any other regulatory bodies/ agencies. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our website is restricted by the unique login ID and password which is required to be entered by you each time you want to access your account information. </span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">You must be very careful in handling the login ID and password and you must ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody, nor do you keep it in writing. It is advisable to change your password periodically. </span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">To enable us to serve you better, it is necessary that your personal information available with us is updated and accurate. Our website enables you to update your personal information and we request you to do so from time to time.</span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">The website contains links to other websites. We shall not be responsible for the privacy practices or the content of such other websites. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Although, we take appropriate steps to maintain the security of personal information collected from you, but you must understand that the open nature of the internet is such that data may flow over networks without security measures and may be accessed and used by people other than those for whom the data is intended. We assume no responsibility of whatsoever nature as to make good the losses and damages you may incur, due to privacy and/or security breach of your personal information. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">We reserve the right to change our policy at any time with or without notifying users of the existence of a new privacy statement. This statement and the policies outlined herein are not intended to and do not create any contractual or other legal rights in or on behalf of any party.</span></span></p></div>', 'Privacy Policy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '184-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:11:25', '2018-12-04 06:11:25', '', 184, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/184-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(190, 1, '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span>\r\n<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\r\n 	<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\r\n 	<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\r\n 	<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\r\n 	<li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b>\r\nWe hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong>\r\nWhilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b>\r\nThe Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</li>\r\n 	<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</li>\r\n 	<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message <span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b>\r\nNeither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b>\r\nThe delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</li>\r\n 	<li>Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</li>\r\n 	<li><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></li>\r\n 	<li><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></li>\r\n 	<li>Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</li>\r\n 	<li>Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'terms-and-conditions', '', '', '2019-05-24 09:07:18', '2019-05-24 09:07:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/?page_id=190', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(827, 1, '2019-05-23 07:41:40', '2019-05-23 07:41:40', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span>\r\n<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\r\n 	<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\r\n 	<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\r\n 	<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\r\n 	<li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b>\r\nWe hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong>\r\nWhilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b>\r\nThe Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</li>\r\n 	<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</li>\r\n 	<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message <span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b>\r\nNeither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b>\r\nThe delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</li>\r\n 	<li>Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</li>\r\n 	<li><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></li>\r\n 	<li><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></li>\r\n 	<li>Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</li>\r\n 	<li>Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 07:41:40', '2019-05-23 07:41:40', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(199, 1, '2018-12-04 07:15:45', '2018-12-04 07:15:45', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span><br/><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\r\n<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\r\n<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\r\n<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\r\n <li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong><br/>Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><br/>The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nYou agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b><br/>Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b><br/>The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></br>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></br>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></br>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nPublish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nDefame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nConduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nNot to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages \r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></br></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:15:45', '2018-12-04 07:15:45', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(198, 1, '2018-12-04 07:09:53', '2018-12-04 07:09:53', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span><br/><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong><br/>Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><br/>The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b><br/>Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b><br/>The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></br>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></br>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></br>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></br></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:09:53', '2018-12-04 07:09:53', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(197, 1, '2018-12-04 07:03:15', '2018-12-04 07:03:15', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company does not offer any refund<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:03:15', '2018-12-04 07:03:15', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(195, 1, '2018-12-04 07:00:14', '2018-12-04 07:00:14', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company does not offer any refund<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:00:14', '2018-12-04 07:00:14', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(194, 1, '2018-12-04 06:46:22', '2018-12-04 06:46:22', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delays</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delivery</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Refund</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company does not offer any refund</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Cancellation</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Third Party Links</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span></span></span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Submissions </b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Relationship</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>About the Company</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:46:22', '2018-12-04 06:46:22', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(193, 1, '2018-12-04 06:40:10', '2018-12-04 06:40:10', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>License</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">No warranties</span></span></span></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Paid Services</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred. </span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delays</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delivery</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Refund</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company does not offer any refund</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Cancellation</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Third Party Links</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span></span></span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Submissions </b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Relationship</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>About the Company</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:40:10', '2018-12-04 06:40:10', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(191, 1, '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>License</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">No warranties</span></span></span></strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Paid Services</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred. </span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delays</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Delivery</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Refund</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company does not offer any refund</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Cancellation</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Third Party Links</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span></span></span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </span></span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Submissions </b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Relationship</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>About the Company</b></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '2018-12-04 06:37:16', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(192, 1, '2018-12-04 07:14:53', '2018-12-04 07:14:53', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span><br/><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\n\n<ul>\n<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\n<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\n<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\n<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\n <li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\n</ul>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong><br/>Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><br/>The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\n\n<ul>\n 	<li>\nYou agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.\n</li>\n<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.\n</li>\n<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b><br/>Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\n\n\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b><br/>The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\n\n\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></br>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></br>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\n\n\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></br>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\n\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\n<ul>\n 	<li>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\n\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\n\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></br></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-autosave-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:14:53', '2018-12-04 07:14:53', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(196, 1, '2018-12-04 07:00:47', '2018-12-04 07:00:47', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confrim --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\">use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm  --></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">You agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Company does not offer any refund<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span> on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled<span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span>. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Publish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">Defame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Conduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.</p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">Not to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages </p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination\r\n</b</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:00:47', '2018-12-04 07:00:47', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(200, 1, '2018-12-04 07:17:07', '2018-12-04 07:17:07', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span><br/><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\r\n<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\r\n<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\r\n<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\r\n <li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\r\n</ul><br/>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong><br/>Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><br/>The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nYou agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul></br>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b><br/>Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b><br/>The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></br>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></br>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></br>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nPublish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nDefame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nConduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nNot to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages \r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></br></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:17:07', '2018-12-04 07:17:07', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(201, 1, '2018-12-04 07:20:29', '2018-12-04 07:20:29', '<div class=\"terms-conditions-content\">\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">This section contains the terms and conditions of use of the website </span></span></span><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><u><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">http://marcellus.in</span></span></a></u></span> <span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (\"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">\"). By using this Website and any of its pages, you agree to and shall abide by all of the terms and conditions set forth below which shall be binding on you, your successors and / or assigns. If you do not agree to any of the terms and conditions mentioned herein, you are advised not to use the Website.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"> (“</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Company</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>we</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">” or “</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>us</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) allows you to access the Website and all contents provided on this Website including all information, software, graphics, function and other materials are subject to the terms and conditions outlined below. By accessing or using or subscribing to the Website or any part thereof, you are explicitly agreeing to the terms and conditions below. The Company reserves all rights to change, modify or alter these terms and conditions at any point of time with or without notifying you, the existing users and subscribers. Your continued use of the Website means that you accept any new or modified terms and conditions that we come up with. Please re-visit the `Terms and Conditions\' link at our site from time to time to stay abreast of any changes that we may introduce.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Registration</b></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">By registering on the Website, you certify that all information you provide, now or in the future, is accurate.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to deny you access to this Website or any portion thereof without notice for the following reasons, immediately (a) for any unauthorized access or use by you (b) if you assign or transfer (or attempt the same) any rights granted to you under this agreement; (c) if you violate any of the other terms and conditions of this agreement.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Password Disclosure </b></span></span></span><br/><span lang=\"en-GB\">To ensure security of access to the personal information and transaction details, the access to the secured zone of our Website is restricted by the unique login ID and password selected by you. You should be careful in handling the ID and password and you should ensure that you do not reveal it to anybody nor do you keep it in writing. You should keep changing your password periodically.</span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Sharing of your login ID and password by a paid registered user to a third party is prohibited and in contravention of this agreement. Upon breach, the Company reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to terminate your access to the Website and the related services or any portion thereof at any time, without notice.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use of Information and Intellectual Properties</b></span><br/><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">All the trademarks, logos and service marks, information and content provided on the Website including its design structure and compilation are our intellectual properties. All content-textual, still pictures, graphs, voice or video - made available on the Website (including content available on our email newsletters and SMS services) (collectively the \"</span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Conten</b></span></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">t\") belongs to the Company or its content partners or licensors. The Company or its partners / licensors own all intellectual property rights (including copyright and database rights) in the Content. You agree to abide by the copyright law and all other applicable laws of India. You acknowledge that the Website in source code form remains a confidential trade secret of the Company therefore you agree not to modify the Website or attempt to decipher, decompile, disassemble or reverse engineer the Website, except to the extent applicable laws specifically prohibit such restriction.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You may retrieve and view content on a computer screen, personal digital assistant (PDA) or mobile telephone, print individual pages on paper (but not photocopy them) and store such pages in electronic form on disk or on your mobile telephone (but not on any server or other storage device connected to a network) for your personal, non-commercial use.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You shall not use the Website for any unlawful purpose.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">Except as indicated above, you shall not reproduce, publish, broadcast, transmit, modify, adapt, create derivative works of, store, archive or in any way commercially exploit any of the Content. Without limitation, you shall not do any of the following without prior written permission from the Website (and neither shall you allow a third party to do any of the same)</span></span></span></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>redistribute or resell any of the Content, including our headlines</li>\r\n<li>create a database in electronic or structured manual form by systematically downloading and storing all or any of the Content; or</li>\r\n<li>deep link to, frame, spider, harvest or scrape the Content or otherwise access the Content for similar purposes; or</li>\r\n<li>use any machine, electronic, web-based or similar device to read or extract the Content by automated techniques, or</li>\r\n <li>use the information in a searchable, machine-readable database</li>\r\n</ul><br/>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">The Website as well as the Content is the valuable, exclusive property of the Company, and nothing therein shall be construed as transferring or assigning any such ownership rights to you or any other person or entity. All Content is the proprietary, confidential property of the Website and cannot be repeated for any reason outside the Website. You agree not to repeat or rebroadcast in any way any of the Content for any reason whatsoever. You agree that if you do repeat or re-post any of the Content by any means, you will be exclusively liable under criminal law and shall also be liable for actual and punitive damages as determined by the Company and additional damages to be determined by a court of law.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">You shall not rent, lease, sublicense, distribute, transfer, copy, reproduce, publicly display, publish, adapt, store or time-share the Website, any part thereof, or any of the information received or accessed therefrom to or through any other person or entity unless separately and specifically authorized in writing by the Company prior to such act. In addition, you shall not remove, alter or obscure any copyright, legal or proprietary notices in or on any portions of the Website without prior written authorization. Except as set forth herein, any other use of the Content requires the prior written consent of the Company and may require a separate fee.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\">In our endeavor to serve and protect your interests and rights, we would appreciate if you could inform us in writing at [</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">●</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">] giving all necessary details of any violation or infringement of our trademarks, logos and service marks which are either protected by us and or available on our Website. We will take the necessary recourse.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>License</b><br/>We hereby grant you a limited, non-exclusive, non-assignable and non-transferable license to access the Website provided and expressly conditioned upon your agreement that all such access and use shall be governed by all of the terms and conditions set forth in this agreement. </p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><strong>No warranties</strong><br/>Whilst every care has been taken in preparing the Content on this Website, such Content is provided ‘as is’ without warranty of any kind, either express or implied. In particular, no warranty regarding non-infringement, security, accuracy, fitness for a purpose or freedom from computer viruses is given in connection with the Content.</p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Paid Services</b><br/>The Company will be operating several paid services and will charge you in Indian rupees (INR) for such paid services. Certain portions of the Website are only accessible to users who are paid subscribers of the Website. By subscribing to receive any of these services, you additionally agree to the following terms and conditions:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nYou agree to pay any subscription fees at the rates in effect when the charges are incurred.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>You must provide us with complete and accurate payment information. You can pay by credit / debit card / net-banking</span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span> through an internet payment gateway. By submitting credit or debit card payment details to the Company you warrant that you are entitled to purchase the subscription services using those payment details. In the case of unauthorized payments, the Company reserves the right to suspend or terminate your access to the online services. If we do not receive payment authorization or any authorization is subsequently cancelled, we may immediately terminate or suspend your access to any paid services.\r\n</li>\r\n<li>The Company will try to process your subscription promptly but does not guarantee that the paid services will be available to you by any specified time. A contract with you for rendering the paid services will come into effect when the Company sends you an email message </span></span></span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">confirming your subscription details.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul></br>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delays</b><br/>Neither the Company nor any of its directors, employees, affiliates, agents, representatives or subcontractors shall be liable for any loss or liability resulting, directly or indirectly, from delays or interruptions due to electronic or mechanical equipment failures, telephone interconnect problems, defects, weather, strikes, walkouts, fire, acts of God, riots, armed conflicts, acts of war, or other like causes. The Company shall have no responsibility to provide you access to the Website while interruption of the Website is due to any such cause.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Delivery</b><br/>The delivery of content subscription products from the Company will be via the e-mail mode and / or SMS mode and / or directly on the Website. Registered users may also log in to the Website to view the products that they have subscribed to, if the same is additionally available on the Website. As many technical factors are involved the Company gives no guarantee of timely delivery of any products. </p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Refund</b></br>The Company does not offer any refund on any subscription products. However, any change or modification in this no-refund policy shall be at the Company’s sole discretion.</p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Cancellation</b></br>Products once subscribed to and paid for, cannot be cancelled. A request for termination of services may be given by the user, however no amounts shall be refunded by the Company.</p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Third Party Links</b></br>The links on this Website may allow you to leave the Website. Any third party website links on this Website are only for your convenience and the linked websites are not under the control of the Company. The Company has not reviewed, nor approved these websites and is not responsible for the contents or omissions of any linked website or any links contained in a linked site. If any link is misleading or changed or removed, we are not responsible for that either.</p>\r\n\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Use Of Forums\r\n</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">If this Website contains messages / bulletin boards, chat rooms, or other message or communication facilities (collectively, \"</span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Forums</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\")</span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><!-- Please confirm --></span></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">, you agree to use the Forums only to send and receive messages and material that are proper and related to the particular Forum. Including but without limitation, you agree that when using a Forum, you shall not do any of the following: </span>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\nPublish, post, distribute or disseminate any defamatory, infringing, obscene, indecent or unlawful material or information.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nDefame, abuse, harass, stalk, threaten or otherwise violate the legal rights (such as rights of privacy and publicity) of others.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Upload files that contain viruses, corrupted files, or any other similar software or programs that may damage the operation of another\'s computer or files that contain software or other material protected by intellectual property laws (or by rights of privacy of publicity) unless you own or control the rights thereto or have received all necessary consents.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<span lang=\"en-GB\">Download any file posted by another user of a Forum that you know, or reasonably should know, cannot be legally distributed in such manner.</span>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nConduct contests, surveys or forward chain letters or spam.\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\nNot to misuse by posting malicious and ill intentioned messages \r\n</li>\r\n</ul></br>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">We expect you to exercise due caution before transacting on any message posted on the Forums. The messages posted on the Forums are the views of the individuals posting them; The Company not assume any liability on account of the message posted therein.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Submissions </b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">All information submitted to the Company via the Website shall be deemed and remain property of the Company and the Company shall be free to use, for any purpose, any ideas, concepts, know-how or techniques contained in information a user of this Website provides the Company. The Company shall not be subject to any obligations of confidentiality regarding submitted information except where specifically agreed.</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Entire Agreement</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the disclaimer on the Website constitutes the entire agreement between the parties, and no other agreement, written or oral, exists between you and the Company. If there is any conflict between this agreement and other documents, this agreement shall govern, whether such order or other documents is prior to or subsequent to this agreement, or is signed or acknowledged by any director, officer, employee, representative or agent of the Company. Any clause declared invalid shall be deemed severable and not affect the validity or enforceability of the remainder. These terms may only be amended in a writing signed by the Company</span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Indemnification</b></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">\r\nYou shall indemnify, defend and hold harmless the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies, agents, representatives or subcontractors) from any and all claims and losses imposed on, incurred by or asserted as a result of or related to: (a) your access and use of the Website (b) any non-compliance by you with the terms and conditions hereof; or (c) any third party actions related to your receipt and use of the Content, whether authorized or unauthorized. </span></p>\r\n\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Termination</b></br></span><span lang=\"en-GB\">This agreement and the license rights granted hereunder shall remain in full force and effect unless terminated or cancelled by the Company. Termination or cancellation of this agreement shall not affect any right or relief to which the Company may be entitled, at law or in equity. Upon termination of this agreement, all rights granted to you will terminate and revert to the Company.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Jurisdiction</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">These terms and conditions shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with laws of India. You explicitly agree that only courts at [Mumbai, Maharashtra</span><span lang=\"en-GB\">], India shall have exclusive jurisdiction over any disputes arising under this agreement.</span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Relationship</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">You understand and agree that no joint venture, partnership, employment, or agency relationship exists between you and us on account of using the Website. </span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-GB\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>About the Company</b></br><span lang=\"en-GB\">Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited is a private limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 2013. Our registered office is at Flat No. 602, Tower 1 Odyssey, Hiranandani Gardens, Powai, Mumbai, 400076, India. </span></p></div>', 'Terms and Conditions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '190-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 07:20:29', '2018-12-04 07:20:29', '', 190, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(218, 1, '2018-12-04 09:54:36', '2018-12-04 09:54:36', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b></span></span></>\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-autosave-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 09:54:36', '2018-12-04 09:54:36', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(221, 1, '2018-12-04 09:56:21', '2018-12-04 09:56:21', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"> (“</span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><b>Company</b></span></span><span style=\"color: #0d0d0d;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\">”) </span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 09:56:21', '2018-12-04 09:56:21', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(223, 1, '2018-12-04 11:12:25', '2018-12-04 11:12:25', '<div class=\"disclaimer-content\"><p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Usage Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><a name=\"_GoBack\"></a> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You expressly agree that use of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in</a> (“</span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Website</b></span></span><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">”) is at your sole risk. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\">  \r\n   The contents, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website may include inaccuracies or typographical errors. Changes are periodically added to the contents herein. Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited (“<b>Company</b>”) may make improvements and/or changes in this Website at any time. This Website may be temporarily unavailable from time to time due to required maintenance, network interruptions, or other disruptions. The Company (and its promoters, consultants, advertisers, affiliates, partners, employees, agents, representatives or any other associated entities shall not be liable to you or any third party should the Company exercise its right to modify or discontinue any or all of the content, information, software, products, features and services published on this Website. \r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The Company and/or its respective associated entities make no representations about the suitability of the contents, information, software, products, features and services contained on this Website for any purpose. All such contents, information, software, products, features and services are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The Company and/or its associated entities hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to the content, information, software, products, features and services, including all implied warranties and conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, non-infringement, and availability. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">In no event shall the Company and/or its associated entities be liable for any direct, indirect, punitive, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of or in any way connected with the use of this Website or with the delay or inability to use this Website, or for any content, information, software, products, features and services obtained through this Website, or otherwise arising out of the use of this Website, whether based on contract, tort, strict liability or otherwise, even if the Company or any of its associated entities has been advised of the possibility of such damages.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You agree that the Company (including its and their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, group companies agents, representatives or subcontractors) shall not in any event be liable for any special, incidental or consequential damages arising out of the use or inability to use the Website for any purpose whatsoever. The Company and its affiliates, officers, directors, employees and agents shall have no liability in tort, contract, or otherwise to user and/or any third party.</span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\"><b>Information Disclaimer</b></span></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You acknowledge that the information provided through the Website is compiled from sources, which are beyond the control of the Company. Though such information is recognized by the parties to be generally reliable, the parties acknowledge that inaccuracies may occur and the Company does not warrant the accuracy or suitability of the information. For this reason, as well as the possibility of human, technological and mechanical errors and other factors, you acknowledge that the Website is provided to you on an “as is” basis. The Company expressly disclaims any and all warranties, whether express, oral, implied, statutory or otherwise, of any kind to the users and/or any third party, including any implied warranties of accuracy, timeliness, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, as well as any warranties arising by virtue of custom of trade or course of dealing and any implied warranties of title or non-infringement. In addition, the Website, in providing the information makes no endorsement of any particular security, market participant, or brokerage. Further, the Company does not represent or warrant that it will meet your requirements or is suitable for your needs. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p lang=\"en-US\" align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">You assume all risk of errors and/or omissions in the Website, including the transmission or translation of information. You assume full responsibility for implementing sufficient procedures and checks to satisfy your requirements for the accuracy and suitability of the Website, including the information, and for maintaining any means, which you may require for the reconstruction of lost data or subsequent manipulations or analyses of the information. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Service Disclaimer</b></span></span></br><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span lang=\"en-GB\">The service is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either express or implied, including without limitation, any warranty for information, data, services, uninterrupted access, or products provided through or in connection with the service. Specifically, the Company disclaims any and all warranties, including, but not limited to: (i) any warranties concerning the availability, accuracy, usefulness, or content of information, products or services; and (ii) any warranties of title, warranty of non-infringement, warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. This disclaimer of liability applies to any damages or injury caused by any failure of performance, error, omission, interruption, deletion, defect, delay in operation or transmission, computer virus, communication line failure, theft or destruction or unauthorized access to, alteration of, or use of record, whether for breach of contract, tort, negligence, or under any other cause of action. </span></span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">This service does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. This service is not intended to be any form of an investment advertisement, investment advice or investment information and has not been registered under any securities law of any foreign jurisdiction and is only for the information of any person in any jurisdiction where it may be lawful to offer such a service. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the Company nor any of its employees, agents, successors, assigns, affiliates, group companies or content or service providers shall be liable to you or other third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, special or consequential damages arising out of use of service or inability to gain access to or use the service or out of any breach of any warranty. Because some countries do not allow the exclusion or limitation of liability for consequential or incidental damages, the above limitation may not apply to you. Further, you agree and understand that all services provided are non-refundable and that you should carefully consider whether our services are able to meet your needs.</span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><b>Product Disclaimer</b>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Neither the information nor any opinion contained on the Website or sent to any person through any means constitutes an offer or an invitation to make an offer, or a solicitation or a specific recommendation to buy or sell any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments or investments or products or services or to provide any investment service or investment advice. The information provided by the Company shall not be construed as a prospectus for the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities or futures or options or derivatives or financial instruments or products or services and that it does not intend to market or promote the subscription, purchase and sale of any securities, futures, options, derivatives, financial instruments products or services. The information provided by the Company does not form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The recipient is solely responsible for making its own appraisal and any investment decisions in connection with the assets or persons and is advised to make an independent review and reach its own conclusions regarding the legal, credit, tax and accounting aspects of the information or instruments or companies described. </span></span></p>\r\n<p align=\"JUSTIFY\"><span style=\"font-family: Garamond, serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">No information, market analysis, research report, etc. on this Website or sent to any person through any means is to be construed as a representation with respect to shares, securities or other investment regarding the legality of an investment therein under the respective applicable investment or similar laws or regulations of any person or entity accessing this Website. The investments discussed or recommended in reports / calls and on the Website may not be suitable for all users. All users must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advisors, as they believe necessary.</span></span></p></div>', 'Disclaimer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '178-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-04 11:12:25', '2018-12-04 11:12:25', '', 178, 'http://marcellus.in/demo/178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(335, 1, '2018-11-03 09:24:46', '2018-11-03 09:24:46', 'Rakshit spent 6 years (2005-2011) covering UK equities with Lloyds Bank (Director, Institutional Equity Research) and Execution Noble (Sector Lead analyst). During these six years, he was ranked amongst the top-3 UK Insurance analysts (Thomson Reuters Extel survey) in the mid-cap space. Since 2011, Rakshit led Ambit Capital\'s consumer research franchise which got voted as No.1 for Discretionary Consumer and within top-3 for Consumer Staples in 2015 and 2016. He launched Ambit\'s Coffee Can PMS in Mar\'17 and managed it till Dec\'18. Under his management, Ambit\'s Coffee Can PMS was one of India\'s top performing equity products during 2018.\r\n\r\nQualifications :Rakshit has a B.Tech from IIT (Delhi) and is a CFA charter holder.', 'Rakshit Ranjan, CFA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rakshit-ranjan-cfa', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:14:14', '2020-04-16 12:14:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=team&#038;p=335', 0, 'team', '', 0),
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(255, 1, '2018-08-30 05:50:06', '2018-08-30 05:50:06', 'The big story lies in firms like La Opala, Astral Poly, Greenlam and Kajaria transforming themselves from Rs 150-200 crore to Rs 3,000-10,000 crore companies...', 'Next 10 years, big players will emerge from small town India: Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'next-10-years-big-players-will-emerge-from-small-town-india-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2018-12-19 05:50:21', '2018-12-19 05:50:21', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=255', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
(256, 1, '2018-10-25 05:50:50', '2018-10-25 05:50:50', 'Early in the new year, we will get an opportunity to buy super real estate developers at super cheap prices, Saurabh Mukherjea...', 'FY19 earnings growth likely to be pulled back to 8-10%: Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fy19-earnings-growth-likely-to-be-pulled-back-to-8-10-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:32:37', '2019-12-03 05:32:37', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=256', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
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(258, 1, '2018-11-12 05:53:14', '2018-11-12 05:53:14', 'Watch Mahesh Patil of Aditya Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund discuss the start of his journey in the stock market and investors who shaped his strategies over the years in...', 'Coffee Can Investing: Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:27:53', '2019-12-03 05:27:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=258', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
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(260, 1, '2018-12-19 05:54:35', '2018-12-19 05:54:35', 'Saurabh Mukherjea is the founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. Saurabh is the former CEO of Ambit Capital, prior to which he co-founded Clear Capital, a London-based small-cap equity research firm.', 'Articles by: Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'articles-by-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:27:04', '2019-12-03 05:27:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=260', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
(236, 1, '2018-12-13 06:28:06', '2018-12-13 06:28:06', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h3>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h3>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (www.marcellus.in) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/); 3) L&T Infotech (https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. Please do NOT send your CV at this stage. \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h3>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h3>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 06:28:06', '2018-12-13 06:28:06', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(237, 1, '2018-12-13 06:33:10', '2018-12-13 06:33:10', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h3>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h3>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h3>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h3>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 06:33:10', '2018-12-13 06:33:10', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(238, 1, '2018-12-13 06:36:41', '2018-12-13 06:36:41', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h4>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h3>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h3>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 06:36:41', '2018-12-13 06:36:41', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(239, 1, '2018-12-13 06:37:04', '2018-12-13 06:37:04', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h4>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h4>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 06:37:04', '2018-12-13 06:37:04', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(240, 1, '2018-12-13 07:00:11', '2018-12-13 07:00:11', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h5>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h5>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h5>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h5>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 07:00:11', '2018-12-13 07:00:11', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(241, 1, '2018-12-13 07:00:47', '2018-12-13 07:00:47', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n\r\n<hr/>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 07:00:47', '2018-12-13 07:00:47', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(242, 1, '2018-12-13 07:12:19', '2018-12-13 07:12:19', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – 1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); 3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 07:12:19', '2018-12-13 07:12:19', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(250, 1, '2018-12-13 09:01:41', '2018-12-13 09:01:41', '', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 09:01:41', '2018-12-13 09:01:41', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(244, 1, '2018-12-13 08:31:47', '2018-12-13 08:31:47', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – \r\n1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  \r\n2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); \r\n3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or 4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 08:31:47', '2018-12-13 08:31:47', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(245, 1, '2018-12-13 08:33:21', '2018-12-13 08:33:21', '<h2>Marcellus is currently hiring</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – \r\n1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  \r\n2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); \r\n3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or \r\n4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h2>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h2>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 08:33:21', '2018-12-13 08:33:21', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(246, 1, '2018-12-13 08:34:44', '2018-12-13 08:34:44', '<h4>Marcellus is currently hiring</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a <strong>Company Secretary</strong> with at least four years of post-qualification experience.\r\n\r\nPreference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation.\r\n\r\nInterested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:sudhanshu@marcellus.in\">sudhanshu@marcellus.in</a>\r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h4>Marcellus is hunting for smart Senior Analysts</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is seeking to hire two Senior Equity Analysts. Candidates have to have at least 5 years of experience of equity research in either the Indian buyside or the Indian sellside in a reputable firm. Candidates MUST possess either a Chartered Accountancy or a Chartered Financial Analyst (USA) qualification. Applicants should send a comprehensive valuation model along with a 1000 word investment hypothesis on any one of the following four companies – \r\n1) Gruh Finance (see <a href=\"https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/\">https://www.gruh.com/financial-results/</a>);  \r\n2) Cera Sanitaryware (<a href=\"https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/\">https://www.cera-india.com/corporate/financials/</a>); \r\n3) L&T Infotech (<a href=\"https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1\">https://www.lntinfotech.com/investors/#tab-investor-id-1</a>); or \r\n4) Dr. Reddy’s Lab (<a href=\"http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings\">http://www.drreddys.com/investors/reports-and-filings</a>).\r\n\r\n The applicants’ valuation model plus investment hypothesis should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 2 January 2019 along with a covering email explaining why you think you are the ideal candidate for this role. <b>Please do NOT send your CV at this stage.</b> \r\n<br>\r\n<hr/>\r\n<br>\r\n<h4>Marcellus is looking for a Client onboarding and service executive</h4>\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for an Client Onboarding and Service Executive with at least 4 years of experience in end-to-end client servicing and Operations support in PMS or Wealth Management setting. The ideal candidate would have experience in conducting KYC, AML and other regulatory checks, new client onboarding, account opening documentation, resolving client related queries and assisting with pre and post sales support. The candidate must have excellent oral and written communication skills in English, and expertise in using Word, Excel, Email and CRM tools. Interested candidates should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:manish@marcellus.in\">manish@marcellus.in</a>', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-13 08:34:44', '2018-12-13 08:34:44', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(678, 1, '2019-03-28 17:10:11', '2019-03-28 17:10:11', '', '6) Disclosure Document - DPMS CCP 20190319-compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', '6-disclosure-document-dpms-ccp-20190319-compressed', '', '', '2019-03-28 17:10:11', '2019-03-28 17:10:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/6-Disclosure-Document-DPMS-CCP-20190319-compressed.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(756, 1, '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em>Published on: 28th April, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '28th-april-2019', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=756', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(561, 1, '2019-02-15 17:45:08', '2019-02-15 17:45:08', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 15 Feb, 2019</span></em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-563 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Untitled-e1550252477702.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"468\" height=\"272\" />\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the past decade, the Nifty’s earnings have not only grown at a much slower pace than the Indian economy, they have also trailed the S&amp;P500’s earnings growth by a country mile (although the Indian economy is growing much faster than the American economy). This disturbing phenomenon has far reaching implications for Indian investors.   </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">–</span></strong></p>\r\n<strong>The Nifty has fallen far behind the Indian economy</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the last ten years, India’s GDP growth (in nominal terms) has averaged 13% per annum whilst the most popular benchmark index in India, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 8% per annum. In fact, in nine out of the last ten years, the Nifty’s earnings growth has trailed nominal GDP by a country mile (the only exception being FY11). In America on the other hand, nominal GDP growth over the past decade has been barely 4% and yet the S&amp;P 500’s earnings has grown at 12% per annum, a full 400bps faster than the Nifty (even without converting the Nifty’s earnings to US dollars)! Why do the benchmark indices in India and America display completely opposite trends (when compared to the GDP growth of their respective economies) and what implications does that have for investors?</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Why does the Nifty lag the Indian economy?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">To understand why the Nifty no longer captures the dynamism of the Indian economy a good place to start is the index as it stood ten years ago. On the face of it, the ten year share price return from investing in the Nifty is a very respectable 14% but that is a deceptively flattering figure. A better way to understand the quality (or lack thereof) of the Nifty is to look at the return from investing in the underlying fifty stocks which were in the Nifty ten years ago – such a portfolio (equal weighted) would give you a return of <u>negative 1% per annum</u> (CAGR over ten years). [Note: by starting the measurement in February 2009, when the market was close to its post-Lehman lows, we are giving the Nifty every chance to benefit from an unusually low base.]</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you assume that the cost of equity of a typical investor investing in Indian stocks is 15%, <u>only 18 out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty have given a return above the cost of equity over the past ten years</u>. [This number too is flattered by the fact that our starting period in Feb 2019.] These 18 outperformers – ranked in descending order of performance – are: HCL Tech, TCS, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, M&amp;M, Zee, HUL, HDFC, Wipro, Tata Motors, BPCL, Infosys, ITC, Siemens, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Grasim, L&amp;T and Sun Pharma. As you can see from the list, barring four companies, all the other companies are from relatively capital light and/or B2C sectors like Consumer, Auto, Pharma and Banking.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The other 32 companies – whose ten year return is below the cost of capital – are from balance sheet heavy sectors like Power, Construction, Metals, Telecom, Real Estate and Oil &amp; Gas. These sectors accounted for roughly 30-35% of the Indian economy. And yet these companies account for two-thirds of the companies in the Nifty leaving little room in the index for the more vibrant sectors of the economy. <em>The over-representation in the Nifty of the capital heavy sectors of the economy is therefore a key reason its sluggish performance. </em>It is not obvious to us why the Nifty continues to have such a high proportion of companies from balance sheet heavy sectors.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, over the last five years, the Nifty’s market has increasingly diverged from India’s nominal GDP (after faithfully tracking it for much of the preceding decade). This in turn is suggests that significant drivers of the Indian economy are no longer in the listed market. For example, taxi aggregators (Ola, Uber), online retailers (Flipkart, Amazon), electronics goods manufacturers, car manufacturers other than Maruti, hotels other than Taj, Oberoi and Lemontree, etc – basically most of the things that affluent India buys beyond FMCG and apparel – is no longer in the listed market. These companies are able to access capital at low cost without entering the stockmarket and therefore their contribution to GDP is not reflected in the stockmarket. If, as the Indian economy matures, the unlisted world continues to provide capital at lower cost than the listed market then the gap between GDP and market cap will widen further.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Implications for investor</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. The sluggishness of the Nifty makes its relatively easy for reasonably competent fund managers to outperform the index and unjustifiably claim the presence of skill. Whilst this does  pose a challenge for Nifty tracker/index funds (since they are tracking a moribund index), it also opens up enormous opportunities in India for smart beta funds. For example, the Nifty Junior (which represents the 50 most liquid stocks below the Nifty) almost always outperforms the Nifty</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. Given that nearly two-thirds of the Nifty constituents have failed to give a return above the cost of capital, large cap Indian funds which draw their constituents largely from the Nifty are a difficult investment to justify. On the other hand, even a relatively simple method – like our Consistent Compounders algorithm which focuses on a select subset of Nifty stocks - is able to deliver returns which are consistently above the cost of capital.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. The inability of the Indian stockmarket to provide lower cost funding than the Private Equity (PE) firms is depriving the Indian stockmarket of high quality companies which can dominate their sectors and help the stockmarket participate in India’s economic growth. The more important foreign companies and PE funded companies become in India, the bigger the questions mark around the relevance of the Indian stockmarket as a medium via which ordinary investors can benefit from India’s economic growth.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">4. The fact that the S&amp;P500 can consistently grow earnings much faster than US economic growth suggests that American companies can tap into Emerging Markets’ economic growth much better than Indian companies in the Nifty. This not only raises troubling questions about the quality of capital allocation and accounting in many large Indian companies who are in the Nifty, it also suggests that Indian investors should consider investing in a portfolio of global companies who dominate specific segments on a worldwide basis.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Nifty is No Longer a Play on the Indian Economy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:42:18', '2019-11-01 06:42:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=561', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(293, 1, '2018-12-19 06:54:14', '2018-12-19 06:54:14', '', 'pdf9', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pdf9', '', '', '2018-12-19 06:54:14', '2018-12-19 06:54:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/pdf9.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(1516, 1, '2019-10-23 08:57:17', '2019-10-23 08:57:17', '<img class=\"wp-image-1515 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BLOG-300x182.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"704\" height=\"427\" />\n\n(Pictured above: The Panchachuli peaks photographed from Saurabh’s decrepit phone)\n<em>Published on:23 July, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>As investment managers, can we morally justify earning healthy returns year after year from investing in companies which generate supernormal returns from monopolising the sale of essential products to millions of Indians? The Mahabharata provides guidance on this troublesome ethical question.  </strong>\n\n<em>“What is here is found elsewhere.</em>\n<em>What is not here is nowhere.”</em>\n<em>– <strong>The Mahabharata 1.56.34-45</strong></em>\n\n<strong>Voices from the past &amp; present raise difficult questions</strong>\nExactly 20 years ago, my then fiancé (now wife) and I went to seek the blessings of an aunt who passed away shortly thereafter. Her parting instruction to us was, <em>“You can choose which country you want to live in but once you have chosen that country, stay put and make that country your karma bhoomi.” </em>(Crudely translated, karma bhoomi means “the land where one works”.)\n\nIt was difficult for us to forget what my late aunt said not least because the transformational impact her family has had on pre &amp; post-Independence India. And so when our son was born in late 2007 we decided to migrate from the UK, a country where I had lived most of my life, to build a life in India.\n\nIn India, largely by design and partly by luck, I find myself working in Marcellus with a group of people who want to be a force for good by managing money for HNW investors in a transparent, cost-efficient structure which delivers consistent returns with volatility akin to a Government of India ten year bond.\n\nHowever, since our central mode of investing entails making money year after year from investing in Indian companies who dominate the sale of essential products to Indians behind monopolistic barriers to entry (which ensure very high Returns on Capital), a few perceptive clients have raised tricky moral issues for us. [See our 1<sup>st</sup> June piece <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm/</a> for more details on how we identify investments.]\n\nA senior fund manager outside India for whom we manage money has ethical issues with us investing in a cigarette manufacturer. A legendary business strategy guru in the UK has raised an even broader issue regarding the ethics of investing in monopoly-like companies. His point is that the era where business &amp; ethics were seen as being divorced from each other has come to an end. Therefore, consumers/voters are not going to tolerate companies generating extraordinary Returns on Capital whilst selling essential products to the public.\n\nIn this piece we delve into each of these issues using the Mahabharata as an analogy for as the quote at the beginning of the note says, the Mahabharata is a microcosm of the world at large.\n\n<strong>The Mahabharata - the world in one epic</strong>\nWe will draw upon the two central moral quandries which are elaborated upon in the great epic. The first is Arjuna’s famous dilemma as the Pandava and the Kaurava armies line up against each other in Kurukshetra. Upon seeing his kinsmen on the other side of the battlefield, Arjuna lays down his famous bow – the Gandiva – and refuses to engage in battle. Krishna, his charioteer, first tries to reason with Arjuna. When that does not work, Krishna resorts to his authority as God and impresses upon Arjuna that his Dharma is to be a warrior whether he likes it or not. He cannot escape his Dharma and he must fulfill it. Arjuna has to be a warrior for what is right and just.\n\nFollowing this line of thought, our job as fund managers is to be stewards of our clients’ monies. We first need to protect the corpus we are given and then we need to grow the corpus without putting the monies as risk. We believe that this job can be best done by investing in companies who meet three criteria: their books are not cooked, they sell essential products and they do so behind the shelter of monopolistic barriers to entry. Yes, it is likely that the flipside of the enormous profits generated by these companies is that Indian consumers pay over the odds for these products but that is the equivalent of Arjuna having to go to war against his kinsmen.\n\nThe second moral quandry in the Mahabharata is more prolonged and even more troubling. As the battle wears on, Krishna uses underhand tactics to help the Pandavas kill the key Kaurava warriors one by one. For example, when Bhima and Duryodhana face off, Krishna doubts that Bhima will be able to prevail upon a warrior as mighty as Duryodhana; hence Bhima will need some sort of dodge. Krishna indicates as much to Arjuna who slaps his left thigh. Bhima gets the hint and smashes his mace into Duryodhana’s left thigh thus pulverizing it. Is this foul move justified? Is Krishna’s repeated trickery justified?\n\nAs Gurcharan Das explains in his lucidly written book ‘The Difficulty of Being Good: The Subtle Art of Dharma’ (2009): <em>“Krishna firmly believes that once you make the fateful decision to go to war then you must win at any cost. As he sees it, the Pandavas’ cause is just, and once the war begins the only thing that matters is victory…</em>\n<em>The game of dice, which led to the exile of the Pandavas and the Kurukshetra War, reflects the decline of dharma. The Kurukshetra War was thus inevitable. It was meant to lead to pralaya, ‘end of the world’, after which would emerge a golden age, the Krita Yuga, another throw of the dice, under the rule of the good king, Yudhishthira. Krishna, too defends, his questionable acts of this basis.”</em>\n\nIn 21<sup>st</sup> century India, we and our clients find ourselves living in a country where the benchmark’s decadal earnings CAGR has been barely 8%, where the capex cycle has been muted for 8 years and where the lending, auditing and credit rating ecosystem has been steadily corrupted. Therefore, to generate healthy returns for our clients – many of whom are relying upon us to finance major life events such as retirement – without taking high levels of risk, we have to invest in well managed highly cash generative monopolies.\n\nIf these monopolies sell addictive products then so be it. The Government, not we, has to make a call on whether these products pose a danger to public health. If these addictive products are being sold legally then we believe it is appropriate for us to invest in such stocks. Of course, if a specific client does NOT want us to have such stocks in his portfolio, we have to honour that request for his/her specific portfolio.\n\n<strong>So what is the risk that we are running?</strong>\nThe great epic can also be used to understand the key risk that we are running with our style of investing. After the 18-day war in Kurukshetra is over, <em>“A sense of horror and melancholy dominates the victors’ mood. Almost everyone is dead and there is no joy in ruling over an empty kingdom. Yudhishthira, in particular, is incosolable…The end of the epic is a time of twilight. After ruling for thirty-six years, the Pandavas feel weary and disillusioned. Krishna dies a banal death. As he is resting on the bank of a river, a hunter mistakes his foot for a bird, killing him with an arrow. After that the Pandavas decide that it is time to leave the world…The five brothers, along with Draupadi, set out for the ‘city of the gods’ in the Himalayas. On the way, they fall one by one, except Yudhisthira who alone reaches heaven.” </em>[Source: Gurcharan Das\' ‘The Difficulty of Being Good’ (2009)]\n\nWhilst we hope that our end will not be as melancholic, we realise that one day India too will get a premiere like Theodore Roosevolt who will use his/her pulpit to expound against unethical causes. As the outstanding writer, Doris Kearns Goodwin, explains in her book ‘The Bully Pulpit’ (2013), at the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, industrial barons monopolised entire industries in America. <em>“There are but a handful of times in the history of our country,”</em> Goodwin writes in her introduction, <em>“when there occurs a transformation so remarkable that a molt seems to take place, and an altered country begins to emerge.” </em>As and when an altered India emerges, we will have to revisit our investment strategy. For now, we continue to consistently compound for our clients courtesy monopolists selling essential products.\n\nIncidentally, the people of Garhwal in Uttarakhand believe that the Pandavas &amp; Draupadi continue to live forever as the five Himalayan peaks called the Panchachuli - see the photo at the beginning of the note and <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panchchuli\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panchchuli</a>\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1fadebf9d8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Mahabharata and the Ethics of Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1513-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 08:57:17', '2019-10-23 08:57:17', '', 1513, 'http://marcellus.in/1513-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(299, 1, '2018-12-21 09:09:59', '2018-12-21 09:09:59', '<h4>November 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>December 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Three Longs & Three Shorts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:09:59', '2018-12-21 09:09:59', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(301, 1, '2018-12-21 09:15:20', '2018-12-21 09:15:20', '', 'Spotting the liar in the boardroom_12Oct2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom_12oct2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:15:20', '2018-12-21 09:15:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom_12Oct2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(465, 1, '2019-02-04 17:23:34', '2019-02-04 17:23:34', '', 'Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_ccp_newsletter_feb_2019', '', '', '2019-02-04 17:25:06', '2019-02-04 17:25:06', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(366, 1, '2018-10-12 10:36:39', '2018-10-12 10:36:39', '<em>Published on: 12 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Alongside our forensic accounting model, we also use questioning techniques popularised by the CIA to figure out whether the CEOs we are meeting are making things up. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>“He that has eyes to see and ears to hear may convince himself that no mortal can keep a secret. If his lips are silent, he chatters with his fingertips; betrayal oozes out of him at every pore.” – Sigmund Freud </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Forensic accounting is our primary line of defence</strong>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ forensic accounting model stratifies the Indian stockmarket into ten deciles wherein decile 1 contains the cleanest companies and decile 10 contains companies who are almost completely fabricating their financial statements. If we overlay on these deciles the amount of debt companies have taken, we can see that the companies in the three worst deciles have the highest debt:equity ratios. Keeping in mind that there are several large cap companies in the three worst deciles, it is certain that as interest rates continue to rise, we will see more prominent companies blowing up. The question is that, forensic accounting apart, can we spot them before they blow-up? The answer is an emphatic “yes” – a mixture of adequate diligence on companies combined with the use of questioning techniques popularised by the CIA can be very effective in spotting liars.\r\n\r\n<strong>The L-squared technique is our secondary line of defence</strong>\r\n\r\nThe specific skill that intelligence officers are taught is to go into L-squared mode (“look &amp; listen”) as soon as they ask a question because research shows that most of the “tells” come within five seconds of the question being asked. So what are the tells that we look out for? [We have ranked these by order of effectiveness i.e. as you go down the list, the tells have a higher reliability rate.]\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The story behind the numbers:</strong> Every set of financial statements has a story embedded in it. In a genuine set of financial statements, not only does the story make sense (eg. revenue growth is a few percentage points higher than nominal GDP growth, profitability growth is a few percentage points faster than that thanks to efficiency improvements and growth in free cashflows is a little bit faster than profit growth thanks to improvement in working capital) but the CEO also knows the story pretty well (without having to referring to a Powerpoint deck). When the CEO can’t clearly tell us the story embedded in his own financial statements and/or when the CEO and the CFO tell us different stories about the same set of accounts, our antennae go up</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Buying time:</strong> Abraham Lincoln said that “No man has a good enough memory to be a successful liar.” We find that even when faced with straightforward questions, a liar will need to buy time. Why? Because making things up takes time and effort even though the human mind works 10x faster than we talk. Therefore, buying two seconds – by giving long winded answers or by using “no answer” statements (like “that is a great question” or “that’s a legitimate concern”) or by repeating the question – is actually the equivalent of twenty seconds of thinking time. So if we see a CEO who repeatedly buys time in a meeting, we start worrying.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>The “Halo Effect”</strong> – Often in response to our question, the CEO will begin by making a statement which is intended to enhance his status (in our eyes). So for example, when we asked the CEO of an auto ancillary company why his capex was equivalent to 10% of his revenues in the last three years. He began his answer by saying “You have to realise my relationships with Japanese OEMs goes back 30 years...” By making status enhancing statements, the CEO is asserting his dominance over us and using a time tested trick – as shown by Stanley Milgram in a legendary experiment (see <a href=\"https://explorable.com/stanley-milgram-experiment\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://explorable.com/stanley-milgram-experiment</a>) we are wired to believe people in positions of power! If the CEO punctuates the meeting with multiple status enhancing statements, it is time to think about an early flight home and dinner with the family.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Belittling:</strong> If a CEO feels cornered and/or if his brain is getting scrambled, he will take to belittling our questions. Eg. when we asked a promoter why he had purchased six luxury cars using the company’s money, his response began “I have been running this company for 20 years and have met hundreds of major foreign investors over the years but none of them have raised this issue.” [That masterly statement from the CEO contains status enhancers, evasion and belittling of Marcellus.]</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Anger:</strong> This is the most compelling tell. When the CEO loses it and starts threatening us or abusing us, we are almost 100% sure that his wicket is about to fall. Between us, we have 30 years of experience of probing companies and we have not found a single instance where an abusive/threatening CEO or promoter has lasted for more than five years after threatening us.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn isolation each of these tells merely arouses suspicion rather than confirming that the CEO is a liar. However, if we encounter three or more of these tells in the same meeting then our house rule is to move on to other, cleaner companies.\r\n\r\nIf you want to read more about how to spot liars, a good book to read is “Spy the Lie” by three ex-CIA operatives – Philip Houston, Michael Floyd and Susan Carnicero. Our thanks to Nitin Bhasin at Ambit Capital for bringing this book to our notice.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>', 'Spotting the Liar in the Boardroom', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:29:25', '2019-11-19 06:29:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=366', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(304, 1, '2018-12-21 09:19:15', '2018-12-21 09:19:15', '', 'What do we expect from a CEO_19Oct2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-do-we-expect-from-a-ceo_19oct2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:19:15', '2018-12-21 09:19:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/What-do-we-expect-from-a-CEO_19Oct2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(376, 1, '2018-12-02 05:59:41', '2018-12-02 05:59:41', '<em>Published on: 2 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>The intellectual legacies of four titans show that the smartest thinkers of every epoch are able to understand how the economic system works in its entirety whilst most of the rest of us only understand the world at an episodic and literal level.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Truly radical \"Machiavellianism\", in the popular sense of that word, is classically expressed in Indian literature in the Arthashastra of Kautilya…compared to it, Machiavelli\'s The Prince is harmless.”–</em> <strong>Max Weber (1919 i.e. four years after the discovery of the Arthashastra</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>System-level thinkers from various eras</strong>\r\n\r\n400 hundred years before the birth of Christ, Chanakya (or Kautilya), the most senior minister in the court of Chandragupta Maurya, created the first set of recorded rules for managing an economy and a polity. As a work of political economy, “The Arthashastra” is astonishingly comprehensive combining as it does the ethics of being a ruler alongside law (civil &amp; criminal), governance (civil service regulations, selection of officers), political strategy, battlefield tactics and economics (how much to tax, what to tax, the role of the state vs the private sector). No text before or since has captured the roles and responsibilities of a ruler as comprehensively. Historians believe that the Arthashastra laid the foundations of the Mauryan empire which reached its zenith 200 years later under Ashoka\r\n\r\nFast forward 21 centuries to eighteenth century Scotland to encounter another original system-level thinker. Adam Smith actually studied philosophy, not economics, at the University of Glasgow and at Balliol College, Oxford, but his insights into economics – and specifically – the following words from his 1776 magnum opus “An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” transformed our understanding of how the economy worked:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every individual, therefore, endeavours as much as he can both to employ his capital in the support of domestic industry, and so to direct that industry that its produce maybe of greatest value; every individual necessarily labours to render the annual revenue of the society as great as he can. He generally, indeed, neither intends to promote the public interest, nor knows how much he’s promoting it. By preferring the support of domestic to that of foreign industry, he intends only his own security; and by directing that industry in such a manner as its produce maybe of greatest value, he intends only his own gain, <u>and he is in in this, and in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part his intention. Nor is it always the worse for the society that it was no part of it. By pursuing his own interest, he frequently promotes that of the society more effectually than when really intends to promote it.”</u></em> [underlining is ours]\r\n\r\nWith these words, Smith captured the essence of what allows the free market economy to deliver, not just at the level of the individual, but for society as a whole. Just as the Industrial Revolution was kicking-off, Smith legitimised commerce and laid the economic premise on which our world rests.\r\n\r\nTwo hundred years later, a young American investor in Omaha, Nebraska, took Smith’s thinking to the next level. From the late 1950s onwards, Warren Buffett started buying big chunks of undervalued listed companies with the aim of selling them for a big profit. His success in doing so over the next twenty years and his use of Berkshire Hathaway from 1972 onwards as his publicly listed investment vehicle legitimised stock market investing which until then was seen as the domain of speculators. Buffett seared into the American psyche the notion that if after careful analysis of companies’ financial statements, you buy “moated” (an evocative term coined by Buffett long before Michael Porter discovered “competitive advantage”) businesses at reasonable prices, you can make a lot of money. Buffett’s success underpinned the subsequent popularity of the US equity mutual fund industry and created a template for the yet to be born American Private Equity industry\r\n\r\nA decade later, as Buffett was becoming a multi-billionaire and as equity mutual fund managers like Peter Lynch and John Neff were becoming household names, an award winning maths professor and Head of the Maths department at Stony Brook University laid the foundations for a new mode of investing. Jim Simons founded Renaissance Technologies in 1982 and with the help of other mathematicians, statisticians, physicists and programmers created the paradigm for a novel form of investing. Renaissance used high end maths and physics to look for patterns – not just in the prices of financial instruments but also in financial statements, in weather, in politics, in almost everything that could be number crunched. Without using anybody with a conventional Wall Street background, Renaissance’s Medallion fund became one of the most successful hedge funds ever. It has generated a CAGR of 72% per annum, before fees, from 1994 through to 2015. Renaissance’s success drew a whole generation of quants to the investing profession. Now, thanks to firms like Bridgewater, Two Sigma, AQR and Research Affiliates, the majority of the money being traded in America is now “managed” by algorithms rather than by human beings.\r\n\r\n<strong>Why we should care about system-level thinkers?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe smartest thinkers of every epoch are able to understand how the economic system works in its entirety whilst most of the rest of us only understand the world at an episodic and literal level. Whilst in Chanakya and Adam Smith’s eras, they could not parlay their insights into personal fortunes, both enjoyed immense influence in their lifetimes. Buffett and Simons’ immense fortunes are well known. Whilst many other investors have successfully copied what these two titans’ techniques, none have made as much money as these two men. Even in today’s inter-connected world, the reward for building a systematic understanding the world from an original perspective is massive even if others can copy what you are doing.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'System level thinkers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'system-level-thinkers', '', '', '2019-11-25 04:55:40', '2019-11-25 04:55:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=376', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(310, 1, '2018-12-21 09:23:25', '2018-12-21 09:23:25', '', 'Social media damages your portfolio_30Oct2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'social-media-damages-your-portfolio_30oct2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:23:25', '2018-12-21 09:23:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Social-media-damages-your-portfolio_30Oct2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(313, 1, '2018-12-21 09:24:42', '2018-12-21 09:24:42', '', 'India_a unique stockmarket_7Nov2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'india_a-unique-stockmarket_7nov2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:24:42', '2018-12-21 09:24:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/India_a-unique-stockmarket_7Nov2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(316, 1, '2018-12-21 09:26:25', '2018-12-21 09:26:25', '', 'The role of Outsiders in investing_11Nov2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-role-of-outsiders-in-investing_11nov2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:26:25', '2018-12-21 09:26:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/The-role-of-Outsiders-in-investing_11Nov2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(319, 1, '2018-12-21 09:29:49', '2018-12-21 09:29:49', '', 'Have we hit Peak Finance_19Nov2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'have-we-hit-peak-finance_19nov2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:29:49', '2018-12-21 09:29:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Have-we-hit-Peak-Finance_19Nov2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(322, 1, '2018-12-21 09:32:43', '2018-12-21 09:32:43', '', 'Weak EPS growth and strong GDP growth can coexist_28Nov2018_SN_sm', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'weak-eps-growth-and-strong-gdp-growth-can-coexist_28nov2018_sn_sm', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:32:43', '2018-12-21 09:32:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Weak-EPS-growth-and-strong-GDP-growth-can-coexist_28Nov2018_SN_sm.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(325, 1, '2018-12-21 09:34:00', '2018-12-21 09:34:00', '', 'System level thinkers_2Dec2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'system-level-thinkers_2dec2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:34:00', '2018-12-21 09:34:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/System-level-thinkers_2Dec2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(329, 1, '2018-12-21 09:35:54', '2018-12-21 09:35:54', '', 'Who is Marcellus and why does he matter_9Dec2018', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'who-is-marcellus-and-why-does-he-matter_9dec2018', '', '', '2018-12-21 09:35:54', '2018-12-21 09:35:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Who-is-Marcellus-and-why-does-he-matter_9Dec2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(331, 1, '2018-12-21 10:27:51', '2018-12-21 10:27:51', '<h4>December 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<h4>November 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n', 'Three Longs & Three Shorts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-revision-v1', '', '', '2018-12-21 10:27:51', '2018-12-21 10:27:51', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(340, 1, '2018-08-13 10:44:50', '2018-08-13 10:44:50', 'The networking of the Indian economy (through roads, phones, internet, low cost flights) has created immense churn in the stockmarket. Small companies who were formerly regional players are raising their sights and aiming to become national players. The rewards for those who succeed is a pan-India franchise and a place in the BSE500. Investors who buy these stocks before they fly into the BSE500 earn returns in excess of 40% per annum.\r\n\r\n“The century after the Civil Was was to be an Age of Revolution – the countless, littlenoticed revolutions, which occurred not in the halls of legislatures…but in homes and farms and factories…so little noticed because they came so swiftly, because they touched Americans everywhere and every day.” – Daniel Boorstin in “The Americans: The Democratic Experience” (1973)\r\n\r\n<strong>Churn in the BSE500 has surged…</strong>\r\n\r\nIn the 1980s there was very little churn in the Indian stockmarket – if you were a large firm ensconced in the Sensex, you stayed there courtesy the License Raj. Then came the 1991 reforms and churn in the Sensex skyrocketed to 60% over the next decade i.e. 18 of the 30 companies that were in the Sensex in 1991 were ejected from the benchmark index by the turn of the century. Unfortunately, after those momentous reforms India’s leaders lost their mojo and in the 21st century as the pace of economic reform slowed, so did churn in the Sensex – see the chart below.\r\n\r\nHowever, this reduction in churn amongst the largest listed companies hides dynamism elsewhere in the Indian stockmarket and, by inference, in the Indian economy. In particular, decadal churn in the broader benchmark, the BSE500, has risen steadily in the 21st century and was until a couple of years ago running at an incredible 60% i.e. of the 500 firms in the index at the beginning of the decade, 300 were ejected by the end of the decade [which also implies that 300 new firms found their way into the index].\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-342\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"501\" height=\"302\" />\r\n\r\n<em>Source: Marcellus Investment Managers using Thomson Reuters data. The chart shows the % of the stocks in the given index (BSE500 or Sensex) which were out of the index by the end of the ten year period after being in the index at the beginning of the period.</em>\r\n\r\nChurn in the BSE500 has slowed down in the last couple of years. Whilst we suspect that this might be due to demonetisation and GST (small firms found it harder to deal with these than larger firms), I have no way of being sure. However, as explained below, we reckon the last two years were an aberration – the operating environment for smaller firms has improved for the better in this century and that trend by and large should sustain going forward.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-343\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/relative-outperformanc.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"567\" height=\"341\" />\r\n\r\n<em>Source: Marcellus Investment Managers using Thomson Reuters, Ace Equity. Relative returns (relative to the BSE 500) are median CAGR of stocks that have been included in the BSE 500. For prior returns, returns are measured until 1 quarter preceding the quarter of entry. Period of BSE500 constituent data analyzed – 2002-2018.</em>\r\n\r\nFrom an investors’ viewpoint, even more exciting than the churn are the returns that entrants into the BSE500 produce as they fly into the index. As shown in the chart above, in the three year run-up to entering the BSE500, entrants outperform the index at a CAGR of 41%. Given that each year around 25 firms are entering the BSE500, such a trend clearly points to underlying economic drivers which are helping well run small firms explode into prominence. [Note: to enter the BSE500, a firm would have to have market cap of around Rs3,000 crores (or US$500mn). That in turn would imply PAT of around Rs150 crores (US$20m) and topline of around Rs3000 crores (US$450mn).]\r\n\r\n…as smaller Indian firms discover a pan-India market\r\n\r\n\"Though not a single household household was wired for electricity in 1880, nearly 100 percent of US urban homes were wired by 1940, and in the same time interval the percentage of urban homes with clean running piped water and sewer pipes for waste disposal had reached 94 percent. More than 80 percent of urban homes in 1940 had interior flush toilets, 73 percent had gas for heating and cooking…In short, the 1870 houses were isolated from the rest of the world, but 1940 houses were \'networked\', most having the five connections of electricity, gas, telephone, water and sewer…Networking inherently implies equality. Everyone, rich and poor, is plugged into the same electric, water, sewer, gas and telephone network. The poor may only be able to hook up years after the rich, but eventually they receive the same access.\"\r\n– Robert Gordon in “The Rise &amp; Fall of American Growth” (2016)\r\n\r\nSmall/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality. However, as the quote shown above from Robert Gordon suggests, the installation of “networks” – rail, electric, water, gas and telephone – in America between 1840 and 1920 rapidly formalised that economy and catalysed the rise of consumerism.\r\n\r\nIndia seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%). The number of broadband users has increased from 3 million to 363 million (CAGR of 70%). A decade ago around 50 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 12%). 15 years ago only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.\r\n\r\nThese factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises. Businesses that were local in nature are trying to become regional; those that were regional are seeking to become national. In fact, from what I see on my travels, many of the passengers taking low cost flights and staying in Oyo Rooms or in 3-star hotels are regional businessmen trying to grow their business elsewhere in the country. GST, looking beyond of the short term disruption caused by it, looks as if it might be another step forward in creating a more integrated economy.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\n\"…La Opala has grown from a small family-run outfit to a National Stock Exchange-listed player with a market capitalisation of Rs 2,900 crore in under three decades. Revenues in FY16 stood at Rs 256 crore, up 10.5 per cent over the previous year, while net profit firmed to Rs 58.7 crore, up 28.9 per cent over FY15. From near-anonymity in the late 1980s, when La Opala started off, to near-dominance today (the company commands a 60 percent share of the Rs 360-400 crore opal and glassware market according to brokerage Nirmal Bang Securities) what has led La Opala to catapult ahead so remarkably?\" – <strong>Forbes India, 26th May 2017 issue</strong>\r\n\r\nThe networking of the broader economy through better road &amp; communication networks has allowed small firms to grow larger by conquering a specific niche nationally. For example, in FY08 Kajaria Ceramics, La Opala and Astral Poly had turnover of around Rs200-300 crores and their PAT was around Rs5-10 crores. Unsurprisingly, their market caps were around Rs 150 crores and they were a million miles from the BSE500.\r\n\r\nThen came a magic ten year period in which Kajaria broke away to become the unquestioned king of the tile market, La Opala built the first national crockery company and Astral Poly made branded CPVC pipes the favourite of plumbers across India. Revenues compounded for these firms over the ten years at around 20% and PAT compounded at 30-40%. As a result, the share prices of these firms compounded at 40-60% per annum between FY08-18 (the same pattern shown in the second chart featured in this note). All three companies are now in the BSE500 with Kajaria’s market cap being Rs9K crores, La Opala’s Rs 3.2K crores and Astral’s Rs10.7K crores.\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying that not every small firm will be able to build a national niche. The winners will be those who have: (a) the work ethic to build a pan-India brand and national distributor-dealer networks; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally &amp; patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages rather than buying a flat in London; and (c) the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations and keep working capital cycles tight.\r\n\r\nWe reckon this trend of smaller firms surging will not only continue, it will become pronounced. Firstly, more firms who are well below the BSE500 will surge through to dominate their specific niches on a pan-India basis and become BSE500 stocks. In my new avatar, I spend most of my day searching for such stocks. Over the next few months, we will try to lay out a recipe for identifying the next generation of Kajarias and Astral Polys (i.e. companies who are outside the BSE500 but appear to be travelling – at a rapid rate – towards it).\r\n\r\nSecondly, some of the hidden champions who have managed to break into the BSE500 will now use their spare free cashflows to move into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment which uses the same distribution channel. As explained in the bestselling book “The Unusual Billionaires”, Coffee Can stocks like Asian Paints, Marico and Astral Poly have created a template that these emerging champions can follow to take their leadership in one category and extend it across multiple categories.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He is also the Founder and CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd.</em>', 'The rise of Indian SMEs', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-rise-of-indian-smes', '', '', '2019-01-11 12:18:07', '2019-01-11 12:18:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=340', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(341, 1, '2019-01-11 10:59:01', '2019-01-11 10:59:01', 'The networking of the Indian economy (through roads, phones, internet, low cost flights) has created immense churn in the stockmarket. Small companies who were formerly regional players are raising their sights and aiming to become national players. The rewards for those who succeed is a pan-India franchise and a place in the BSE500. Investors who buy these stocks before they fly into the BSE500 earn returns in excess of 40% per annum.\n\n“The century after the Civil Was was to be an Age of Revolution – the countless, littlenoticed revolutions, which occurred not in the halls of legislatures…but in homes and farms and factories…so little noticed because they came so swiftly, because they touched Americans everywhere and every day.” – Daniel Boorstin in “The Americans: The Democratic Experience” (1973)\n\n<strong>Churn in the BSE500 has surged…</strong>\n\nIn the 1980s there was very little churn in the Indian stockmarket – if you were a large firm ensconced in the Sensex, you stayed there courtesy the License Raj. Then came the 1991 reforms and churn in the Sensex skyrocketed to 60% over the next decade i.e. 18 of the 30 companies that were in the Sensex in 1991 were ejected from the benchmark index by the turn of the century. Unfortunately, after those momentous reforms India’s leaders lost their mojo and in the 21st century as the pace of economic reform slowed, so did churn in the Sensex – see the chart below.\n\nHowever, this reduction in churn amongst the largest listed companies hides dynamism elsewhere in the Indian stockmarket and, by inference, in the Indian economy. In particular, decadal churn in the broader benchmark, the BSE500, has risen steadily in the 21st century and was until a couple of years ago running at an incredible 60% i.e. of the 500 firms in the index at the beginning of the decade, 300 were ejected by the end of the decade [which also implies that 300 new firms found their way into the index].\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-342\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"501\" height=\"302\" />\n\n<em>Source: Marcellus Investment Managers using Thomson Reuters data. The chart shows the % of the stocks in the given index (BSE500 or Sensex) which were out of the index by the end of the ten year period after being in the index at the beginning of the period.</em>\n\nChurn in the BSE500 has slowed down in the last couple of years. Whilst we suspect that this might be due to demonetisation and GST (small firms found it harder to deal with these than larger firms), I have no way of being sure. However, as explained below, we reckon the last two years were an aberration – the operating environment for smaller firms has improved for the better in this century and that trend by and large should sustain going forward.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-343\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/relative-outperformanc.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"567\" height=\"341\" />\n\n<em>Source: Marcellus Investment Managers using Thomson Reuters, Ace Equity. Relative returns (relative to the BSE 500) are median CAGR of stocks that have been included in the BSE 500. For prior returns, returns are measured until 1 quarter preceding the quarter of entry. Period of BSE500 constituent data analyzed – 2002-2018.</em>\n\nFrom an investors’ viewpoint, even more exciting than the churn are the returns that entrants into the BSE500 produce as they fly into the index. As shown in the chart above, in the three year run-up to entering the BSE500, entrants outperform the index at a CAGR of 41%. Given that each year around 25 firms are entering the BSE500, such a trend clearly points to underlying economic drivers which are helping well run small firms explode into prominence. [Note: to enter the BSE500, a firm would have to have market cap of around Rs3,000 crores (or US$500mn). That in turn would imply PAT of around Rs150 crores (US$20m) and topline of around Rs3000 crores (US$450mn).]\n\n…as smaller Indian firms discover a pan-India market\n\n\"Though not a single household household was wired for electricity in 1880, nearly 100 percent of US urban homes were wired by 1940, and in the same time interval the percentage of urban homes with clean running piped water and sewer pipes for waste disposal had reached 94 percent. More than 80 percent of urban homes in 1940 had interior flush toilets, 73 percent had gas for heating and cooking…In short, the 1870 houses were isolated from the rest of the world, but 1940 houses were \'networked\', most having the five connections of electricity, gas, telephone, water and sewer…Networking inherently implies equality. Everyone, rich and poor, is plugged into the same electric, water, sewer, gas and telephone network. The poor may only be able to hook up years after the rich, but eventually they receive the same access.\"\n– Robert Gordon in “The Rise &amp; Fall of American Growth” (2016)\n\nSmall/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality. However, as the quote shown above from Robert Gordon suggests, the installation of “networks” – rail, electric, water, gas and telephone – in America between 1840 and 1920 rapidly formalised that economy and catalysed the rise of consumerism.\n\nIndia seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%). The number of broadband users has increased from 3 million to 363 million (CAGR of 70%). A decade ago around 50 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 12%). 15 years ago only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.\n\nThese factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises. Businesses that were local in nature are trying to become regional; those that were regional are seeking to become national. In fact, from what I see on my travels, many of the passengers taking low cost flights and staying in Oyo Rooms or in 3-star hotels are regional businessmen trying to grow their business elsewhere in the country. GST, looking beyond of the short term disruption caused by it, looks as if it might be another step forward in creating a more integrated economy.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\n\"…La Opala has grown from a small family-run outfit to a National Stock Exchange-listed player with a market capitalisation of Rs 2,900 crore in under three decades. Revenues in FY16 stood at Rs 256 crore, up 10.5 per cent over the previous year, while net profit firmed to Rs 58.7 crore, up 28.9 per cent over FY15. From near-anonymity in the late 1980s, when La Opala started off, to near-dominance today (the company commands a 60 percent share of the Rs 360-400 crore opal and glassware market according to brokerage Nirmal Bang Securities) what has led La Opala to catapult ahead so remarkably?\" – <strong>Forbes India, 26th May 2017 issue</strong>\n\nThe networking of the broader economy through better road &amp; communication networks has allowed small firms to grow larger by conquering a specific niche nationally. For example, in FY08 Kajaria Ceramics, La Opala and Astral Poly had turnover of around Rs200-300 crores and their PAT was around Rs5-10 crores. Unsurprisingly, their market caps were around Rs 150 crores and they were a million miles from the BSE500.\n\nThen came a magic ten year period in which Kajaria broke away to become the unquestioned king of the tile market, La Opala built the first national crockery company and Astral Poly made branded CPVC pipes the favourite of plumbers across India. Revenues compounded for these firms over the ten years at around 20% and PAT compounded at 30-40%. As a result, the share prices of these firms compounded at 40-60% per annum between FY08-18 (the same pattern shown in the second chart featured in this note). All three companies are now in the BSE500 with Kajaria’s market cap being Rs9K crores, La Opala’s Rs 3.2K crores and Astral’s Rs10.7K crores.\n\nIt goes without saying that not every small firm will be able to build a national niche. The winners will be those who have: (a) the work ethic to build a pan-India brand and national distributor-dealer networks; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally &amp; patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages rather than buying a flat in London; and (c) the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations and keep working capital cycles tight.\n\nWe reckon this trend of smaller firms surging will not only continue, it will become pronounced. Firstly, more firms who are well below the BSE500 will surge through to dominate their specific niches on a pan-India basis and become BSE500 stocks. In my new avatar, I spend most of my day searching for such stocks. Over the next few months, we will try to lay out a recipe for identifying the next generation of Kajarias and Astral Polys (i.e. companies who are outside the BSE500 but appear to be travelling – at a rapid rate – towards it).\n\nSecondly, some of the hidden champions who have managed to break into the BSE500 will now use their spare free cashflows to move into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment which uses the same distribution channel. As explained in the bestselling book “The Unusual Billionaires”, Coffee Can stocks like Asian Paints, Marico and Astral Poly have created a template that these emerging champions can follow to take their leadership in one category and extend it across multiple categories.\n\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He is also the Founder and CIO of Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd.', 'The rise of Indian SMEs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '340-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-11 10:59:01', '2019-01-11 10:59:01', '', 340, 'http://marcellus.in/340-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(343, 1, '2019-01-11 10:53:53', '2019-01-11 10:53:53', '', 'relative-outperformanc', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'relative-outperformanc', '', '', '2019-01-11 10:53:53', '2019-01-11 10:53:53', '', 340, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/relative-outperformanc.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(344, 1, '2018-08-20 07:03:02', '2018-08-20 07:03:02', '\'Competitive advantage\' is the most commonly used concept in business. However, proper application of the concept - to figure out whether an investment is worth making - is not easy. Three smart thinkers – Joan Magretta, Yefei Lu, and Bruce Greenwald - have discovered insightful ways to apply competitive advantage in the context of investing.\r\n\r\n\'We are like dwarfs sitting on the shoulders of giants. We see more, and things that are more distant, than they did, not because our sight is superior or because we are taller than they, but because they raise us up, and by their great stature add to ours.\" – <strong>John of Salisbury in \"Metalogicon\" (1159 AD)</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Oft used but misunderstood concept</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring my years in Ambit I had the privilege of meeting most of the well run companies in the BSE500. With ROCE well above the cost of capital for extended periods of time, most of these companies had some sort of competitive advantage. But then, after meeting them, I would wonder whether the said company’s competitive advantage would endure. And, more importantly, would the return on the incremental capital that the company would invest over the next ten years be higher than the ROCE clocked by the company over the previous decade?\r\n\r\nGiven the multiple hats that I wore for my erstwhile employer, I regret not delving deeper into these questions whilst at Ambit. Now that I have my whole day free to think about these issues, I have tried to learn from the smartest thinkers on this subject and have discovered three exceptional books on this subject. My key learnings are summarised in this piece.\r\n\r\n<strong>1. \"Understanding Michael Porter: the Essential Guide to Competition and strategy\" (2011) by Joan Magretta </strong>\r\n\r\nJoan Magretta was Michael Porter’s editor at the HBR and in this book she has produced a clearer framework than given by Porter’s own writings! There are three useful mental models given in the book – uniqueness, quantification of competitive advantage and looking beyond the received wisdom on growth &amp; scale:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Don’t look for companies who are trying to be the best or the largest. Look out for companies who are unique and are focused on staying unique. Being the best or trying to become the best does not lead to ROCE &gt; WACC. Sustained uniqueness, on the other hand, does.</li>\r\n 	<li>Stay away from companies which are trying to be all things to all men. Such companies can rarely sustain ROCE &gt;WACC</li>\r\n 	<li>The prices charged by a firm tell you a lot about the firm’s offering. Specifically, if a firm is being able to charge premium prices for long periods of time and retain market share then this has to be underpinned by a distinctive/unique product.</li>\r\n 	<li>Don’t look at costs in isolation – it is relative costs that matter i.e. if it costs firm X Rs100 to make a widget, then how much more does it cost firm Y.</li>\r\n 	<li>Quantify the extent of competitive advantage a company has by quantifying the previous two bullets i.e. if firm X’s ROCE is 5% higher than firm Y, then how much of that is because of higher prices and how much is because of lower costs?</li>\r\n 	<li>Don’t assume that high growth industries will be attractive industries to invest in. Growth is not only NOT a guarantee of profitability, it often puts suppliers in the driving 2 seat and – when combined with low entry barriers – might attract new rivals. (Growth in a prominent B2C industry also attracts the attention of Indian politicians.)</li>\r\n 	<li>Don’t overplay the importance of scale. “In industry after industry… economies of scale are exhausted at a relatively small share of industry sales. There is no systematic evidence that indicates that industry leaders are the most profitable or successful…General Motors was the world’s largest car company…that didn’t prevent its descent into bankruptcy…BMW, small by industry standards, has a ROIC 50% higher than the industry average.”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThanks to Samit Vartak of SageOne Investment Advisors for pointing me towards this book.\r\n\r\n<strong>2. \"Competition Demystified: A Radically Simplified Approach to Business Strategy\" (2005) by Bruce Greenwald &amp; Judd Kahn</strong>\r\n\r\nIn this provocative book, the authors argue that there is only one essential factor in determining competitive advantage: how easy it is for competitors to enter or expand in a specific market. If a company can erect strong barriers to entry - through customer captivity, lower production costs, or economies of scale - it can manage these advantages, anticipate competitors\' strategies, or achieve stability through bargaining/cooperation. Even more interestingly, the authors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Discuss ways to gain protected positions from which businesses can be run badly but still earn ROCE significantly above WACC. Hence investors are advised to look for small/local/niche markets without existing competitors.</li>\r\n 	<li>Place heavy emphasis on supply-related advantages (based on patents, experience, know-how) or advantages related to customer captivity (underpinned by switching costs, search costs, habit) rather than obsessing about demand.</li>\r\n 	<li>Argue that branding or product differentiation or operational efficiency is NOT a barrier to entry since this can be copied by competitors. “Although the nature of the competition may change, the damage to profit persists because the problem is not lack of differentiation, but the absence of barriers to entry.”</li>\r\n 	<li>Efficiency matters in industries where no player has a competitive advantage eg. steel, textiles, airlines, bulk chemicals, telecom. In such industries, ROCE will often be below WACC for most players barring the most efficient player. The best, perhaps the only, time to invest in such sectors is when capacity is shut down thus allowing the most efficient player to enjoy higher ROCEs for a while. (Therefore, it makes sense to follow the Jet Airways saga.)</li>\r\n 	<li>Show that economies of scale by itself are NOT a competitive advantage. The book contains many examples of large companies that enjoyed scale economies but then fell away as competition intensified eg. Compaq, Phillips. For scale economies to matter, incumbents must have privileged access to customers, and this involves customer captivity in some shape or form. Ironically, scale economies can be effective in local markets, but firms should be careful not to expand to more geographically dispersed markets where they will be subject to increased competition.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThanks to the folks at MIT Investment Company for pointing me towards this book.\r\n\r\n<strong>3. \"Inside the Investments of Warren Buffett: Twenty Cases\" by (2016) Yefei Lu </strong>\r\n\r\nThis book gives you access to the financial statements that Warren Buffett would have analysed real time (30-40-50 years ago) before he pulled the trigger on his most successful investments. Piecing together Buffett’s letters to his Limited Partners, the author helps you 3 understand how the legendary investor linked competitive advantage to the sustenance of ROCE and thence to valuation. Two case studies in the book stand out – American Express and GEICO.\r\n\r\nIn the early 1960s, the credit card was only just beginning to take off courtesy of American Express (Amex). However, Amex’s mainstay at that point was traveller’s cheques – the equivalent of which is called a Demand Draft in India. Amex was a well run firm when disaster hit in 1963 – a subsidiary which earned fees by inspecting warehouses and then issuing warehouse receipts was hit by fraud (similar to what happened to NSEL in India). This Amex sub had issued receipts for what it thought was tankers full of salad oil. Instead, these tankers were full of sea water. The banks which had lent money against the warehouse receipts threatened to sue and the word on the Street was that the banks’ claims would be around $150 mn (in comparison, Amex’s networth was only $78m). Amex’s share price fell from $60 to $35 by early 1964 when Buffett stepped into buy a stake in the firm at around $40 per share (implying a forward P/E of 20x).\r\n\r\nBuffett was willing to pay a fair market multiple because his discussions with Amex users (restaurant owners &amp; diners, SMEs in Omaha) told him that the Amex brand had NOT been dented by the salad oil debacle. In fact, the network effects underpinning Amex (more people wanted to use it if more vendors accepted Amex cards and vice versa) were getting stronger by the year. Furthermore, in Amex’s balance sheet he saw something which would later define his career – there was a time lag between the date on which customers gave money (in lieu of traveller’s cheques) and when this money was withdrawn (say, when the customer went on holiday to Europe). In between these two dates, Amex could earn interest of $4-5 million per annum on this “float”. Hence if the Amex brand was not damaged then both the fees from issuing traveller’s cheques and the revenue from the float would sustain. That in turn would put Amex on a forward P/E of 11.5x (rather than the 20x everyone else in the market was working with). This insight/conviction underpinned Buffett’s investment in Amex.\r\n\r\nGEICO was an auto insurer which specialized in insuring Government employees who were inherently a low risk group. However, unbridled expansion across the US meant that GEICO had ended up writing insurance in several states where the state had capped the premiums at a low level. This had triggered underwriting losses and in 1976, GEICO found itself on the verge of bankruptcy and running out of cash. Its share price had dropped from a high of $61 to $2 by 1976.\r\n\r\nBy that time, Buffett had been following GEICO for 25 years and he understood three things about GEICO which nobody else did: (a) the customer base was inherently low risk and was not the source of the problem, in fact it was a major competitive advantage; (b) since GEICO sold directly to the customer, rather than through agents, it had a structural cost advantage; and (c) the “float” was massive – because for every 100 people who paid insurance premiums each year, only a third made a claim in that year (implying that if the firm could be stabilized, it would have surplus cash on which it could make an investment return. In fact, GEICO’s three advantages were inherently linked to each other and that insight convince Buffett to recapitalise GEICO (by buying from the firm 1.3 mn shares at $3.18 per share) when the rest of the market had given up on it.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nIntegrating the thinking of these authors has given me a framework to disaggregate AND quantify a company’s source of superior ROCE. Is the higher ROCE relative to peers driven by premium pricing or lower costs or both? If it is premium pricing then what is the underpinning 4 of this premium pricing? Are these advantages enjoyed by the firm strengthening or weakening over time?\r\n\r\nHad I understood this framework properly ten years ago, I would have avoided investing in Bharti Airtel in 2009 when it was apparent that it was heading into markets where it had little or no competitive advantage. I would have avoided buying Tata Motors five years ago just because it screened well on ROCE as I would have understood that sooner rather than later the challenge of having to compete with BMW &amp; Mercedes would drag down the ROCE of this firm (as it would have spend more on R&amp;D to compete with the German firms in the global luxury car market). And I would have ejected Axis Bank from my Coffee Can Portfolio five years ago when I could see that the firm was pushing aggressively into a retail lending market where it did not have any obvious sustainable competitive advantage.\r\n\r\nLooking forward, a clearer assessment of competitive advantage will help me stay away from most Housing Finance Companies as it appears that almost none of them have any pricing power or a unique access to raw material/funds even as regulation makes it easier for customers to switch their mortgage provider. I will also stay away from large asset management companies whose funds struggle to beat the benchmark index. Brand is not a competitive advantage if your product is expensive and does not deliver performance!\r\n\r\nIn contrast, Indian life insurers seem to have significantly higher competitive advantages – distribution through captive bank branches (captive by regulatory dictat), opacity around pricing/performance of the product, high costs for the consumer of switching from one insurer to another (especially for traditional life and unit linked products) and significant regulatory barriers to entry. Similarly, Indian pharma companies with FDA approved drugs and with strong domestic distribution appear to have competitive advantages which could endure. I am also enthused by an emerging group of small cap industrial companies who make unique products in the B2B context (products where they have a technological edge) and have long standing relationships with large customers like Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, UPL, etc who are locked into these smaller suppliers.\r\n\r\nSeven years ago I shared a long car journey with a senior Private Equity fund manager. Trying to show off my knowledge, I told him about several well run southern Indian firms with consistently high ROCEs and niche franchises (confined to south India). The PE fund manager told me that “The problem with these Tamil firms is that they are too conservative. They get out of bed every morning and do the same thing that there fathers had done. They are not dynamic you see…no aggression to create a pan-India franchise. That’s why I don’t go to Chennai or Bangalore too much.” In the years that followed the PE fund manager’s portfolio (of investments in the West and the North of India) did not do so well – rapid expansion beyond any semblance of competitive advantage meant that many of these firms never made money. Reading Magretta, Greenwald and Lu might help me avoid such a fate.\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of \"The Unusual Billionaires and \"Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth\". He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.', 'The smartest thinkers on competitive advantage', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-smartest-thinkers-on-competitive-advantage', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:10:31', '2019-11-05 11:10:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=344', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(345, 1, '2018-08-28 07:07:59', '2018-08-28 07:07:59', 'On a crisp wintry morning in January 2007 I sat down with, John Kay, the Chairman of the firm I had co-founded in London, for our monthly chat. Over the next hour or so, John’s penetrating intellect helped me understand why the overleveraged British financial system would blow up. Then, through the entirety of 2007, we first helped our clients sell their holdings in British lenders and then began efforts to sell our own firm. A buyer was finally found in May 2008 and within 24 hours of the sale, my wife and I migrated to India. We found then – as now - several sanguine local investors in India who subscribed to the notion of India decoupling from the global financial system. In the months that followed, most of these investors’ portfolios were hammered by the meltdown in the global financial system. And then, just as everyone had given up on stocks, in March 2009 began the greatest rally seen in equities seen this century. Since then the Nifty Total Return Index has compounded by 17% (in Rupee terms) and even more astonishingly, the S&amp;P500 has compounded by 15% (in US dollar terms).\r\n\r\nMany books have been written both about the GFC and about the remarkable decade following the GFC. What have we learnt from this mountain of literature? And, more importantly, can a financial crisis on such a scale recur?\r\n\r\nFirstly, we now understand the power that central banks and monetary policy can wield even in the most trying of economic circumstances. The inter-connected nature of global financial flows has made the Federal Reserve the main guardian of the global financial system and the past decade has underscored the influence that the major global central banks have on asset prices and exchange rates. Never before have central banks played so central a role in a stock market bull run and stock price forecasting has now become as much about understanding liquidity as it is about understanding about earnings growth. Whenever the Fed tightens monetary policy (as it did in June 2013), Emerging Markets come under pressure and liquidity tightens even in a large economy like India.\r\n\r\nSecondly, it is all too evident now that policy interventions intended on stabilizing asset prices exacerbate wealth inequalities both in the West (the Western elites are heavily invested in financial assets and in prime real estate) and in India (India’s elites’ wealth &amp; income are linked to the global financial system partly through the Financial Services and Tech sectors and partly through the ability to invest in the West). This widening of inequality has in turn spawned a new brand of populist politics centering on targeting elites and minorities. The new wave of populist leaders in turn are erecting trade barriers on the contentious premise that it is global trade – not global financial flows – which have triggered the rise in inequality.\r\n\r\nThirdly, the economic hammering that the Western economies took in 2008-2011 alongside the rise of protectionist/nationalistic Western leaders has punctured the West’s desire to foist the “Washington Consensus” – free trade, financial liberalization, capital account convertibility, labour market reform – upon the rest of us. In particular, the World Bank and the IMF – who used to be the flag bearers of this brand of economics – seem to be shadows of their former selves.\r\n\r\nAmidst all these wrenching changes, the supreme irony is that financial markets have become more, not less, important. The market cap of the world’s top 10 stockmarkets has risen from $23 trillion fifteen years ago to around $55 trillion now. Not only have financial markets become bigger, the role of human agency has diminished in such markets – nearly 2 in 3 trades executed in the US market are triggered by algorithms. These developments I reckon contain the grains of the next financial crisis especially in the context of the Indian financial system.\r\n\r\nWith India’s public sector banks largely neutered, the economy is now funded by the wholesale financial markets in India. These financial markets in turn are umbilically linked to the global financial system (through foreign portfolio investors’ flows and through the Rupee Non Deliverable Forward market). With the US economy growing at nearly 4.5% and running at full employment even as a trade war generates its own inflationary impulse, the odds are rising in favour of an inflation-scare in America. If the Fed tightens monetary policy in the wake of such a scare, the liquidity tightening will ripple straight into the Indian economy via our wholesale markets. In 2006, in 2008 and in 2013, liquidity tightening in the US triggered a 30-35% correction in the Bankex. Now, with Financial Services accounting for nearly 40% of the Nifty’s market cap – the highest weight ever commanded by a single sector in the Nifty – the risk to the India’s wholesale funded lenders is higher than it has ever been. Such lenders are, by design, heavily leveraged, run asset-liability mismatches and lend money to each other. Those are the three features that prompted me to help my clients in London sell their holdings in British lenders in 2007.\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers and the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Gurus of Chaos”.', 'Lehman, liquidity and Indias exposed financial system', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lehman-liquidity-and-indias-exposed-financial-system', '', '', '2019-01-14 07:08:19', '2019-01-14 07:08:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=345', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(346, 1, '2018-09-10 07:21:27', '2018-09-10 07:21:27', '<em>Published on: 10 Sep, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n\"The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of \'positive deviants\' in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as everyone else but stubbornly refuse to allow themselves to be constrained by conventional wisdoms, and as a consequence are able to identify fresh and often counter-traditional ways to address seemingly intractable problems. In business, I believe that there will always be positive deviants, brands that are exceptional, not because they are able to run harder or faster than the rest, but because at some fundamental level they have made a commitment to not taking the status quo for granted.\" – <strong>Youngme Moon in \'Different: Escaping the Competitive Herd\' (2010)</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Original Thinking + Focused Specialisation + Simplicity</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first piece for The Ken, my friend – Anupam Gupta – and I concluded that the path to a more meaningful and successful life lies in deep specialisation allied to original thinking and simple rules. (Click here to read The Ken article: https://theken.com/story/tsundoku-mental-clutter/) No sooner was this piece published that we started consuming our own cooking i.e. applying this recipe to Marcellus Investment Managers. In the process, my colleagues at Marcellus and I came across a very interesting branch of marketing strategy – reverse positioned brands.\r\n\r\n<strong>Changing the playing field</strong>\r\n\r\nThe standard paradigm along which competition evolves in any sphere of life involves gradually upping the ante. So if you and I are Indian politicians and I call you a scoundrel, you will call me an even bigger scoundrel. I will then call you and your previous generation various names. You will then retaliate by saying that my last three generations were wasters and thus this linear escalation in abusive competition will continue.\r\n\r\nAs Younge Moon explains in her short, lucid book on marketing, in business life, the standard paradigm plays out as:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>A company augments its value proposition by offering customers a new benefit.</li>\r\n 	<li>Customers are pleased.</li>\r\n 	<li>Competitors race to match (imitate) the augmentation.</li>\r\n 	<li>The augmentation becomes standard across the category.</li>\r\n 	<li>Satisfaction levels are recalibrated, which is to say that customers now feel entitled to what they were grateful for yesterday.</li>\r\n 	<li>Meanwhile, the expanded value proposition has expanded and the minimal requirements for competing in the category have gone up.</li>\r\n 	<li>Repeat step 1.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe result of this iterative process in which everyone copies everyone else is that over time most of the players in the sector end up with very similar offerings. So, for 2 example, once upon a time, Jet Airways was markedly more comfortable than Indigo and Indigo was markedly cheaper than Jet. Now neither is Jet Airways significantly more comfortable that Indigo nor is Indigo significantly cheaper than Jet.\r\n\r\nIn this context, reverse positioned brands - i.e. brands which refuse to stick to the standard playbook - tend to change the paradigm and turn the industry on its head. When I was in college in the mid-1990s, I discovered the internet. I was clueless about technology and delighted to find Yahoo – a portal which would guide me to useful sites on sports, entertainment, travel, etc. From 1997 until 2000, I was a devoted Yahoo user. Then one day in 2001, a colleague told me about Google. Initially, I was puzzled by the emptiness of Google’s search engine page. It took me a while to understand that Google was a reverse positioned brand.\r\n\r\nYoungme Moon defines a reverse positioned brands as: \"<em>A reverse positioned brand is a very particular kind of idea brand, one that makes the deliberate decision to defy the augmentation trend in a category in which customers have come to expect augmentation. What this means is that there is a commitment to withholding benefits that the rest of the industry considers necessary to compete. Reverse brands say no where others say yes. And they do so openly…In business…there are few greater sins than failing to meet customer expectations. So nothing is likely to raise eyebrows more quickly than a decision to strip away benefits that consumers expect to receive. This is why the concept of reversal goes against every instinct a businessperson has. When the entire category is racing north, it is no trivial matter to point yourself south.\"</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Reverse Positioned Brands', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'reverse-positioned-brands', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:04:42', '2019-11-04 09:04:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=346', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(1998, 1, '2019-10-24 07:08:00', '2019-10-24 07:08:00', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 22 Feb, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The more we get plugged into social &amp; mass media, the harder it becomes to escape the echo chamber of consensus thought. In stark contrast, original thinkers – in Investing and beyond – have wide ranging interests beyond their profession, have a yearning to alter the status quo and a high rate of idea generation.</strong></span></em></p>\n<strong><span style=\"color: red;\"> Marcellus is offering a six month internship to a youngster who wants to learn investment analysis under our senior analysts:</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>““Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.” </em>– <strong>John Maynard Keynes</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…In the study, we had 163 participants complete a classic test of “divergent thinking” called the alternate uses task, which asks people to think of new and unusual uses for objects. As they completed the test, they underwent fMRI scans, which measures blood flow to parts of the brain.</em>\n<em>The task assesses people’s ability to diverge from the common uses of an object. For example, in the study, we showed participants different objects on a screen, such as a gum wrapper or a sock, and asked to come up with creative ways to use them. Some ideas were more creative than others. For the sock, one participant suggested using it to warm your feet – the common use for a sock – while another participant suggested using it as a water filtration system.</em>\n<em>Importantly, we found that people who did better on this task also tended to report having more creative hobbies and achievements, which is consistent with previous studies showing that the task measures general creative thinking ability…”</em> <em><strong>– Roger Beaty, New Study Reveals Why Some People Are More Creative Than Others, 2018,</strong></em>    </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">(Source: <a href=\"http://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-why-some-people-are-more-creative-than-others-90065\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-why-some-people-are-more-creative-than-others-90065</a>)</span></em></p>\n<strong>Trapped in the echo chamber</strong>\n\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The irony of contemporary urban life is that the more connected we are to each other through social media, the greater the likelihood that all of us will be locked in the same echo chamber and thus mouth the same messages. To the extent that the job of a professional investor is to think originally, to think independently, that job has arguably been made harder by the rise of both social and popular media. Therefore, are there methods which we can use to swing the odds in our favour? Given the costs – social and financial – of deviating from consensus, can we make it easier for ourselves to think independently? My friend, Anupam Gupta, and I recently wrote a column on this subject for The Ken. </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Click here to access the full column: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/the-power-of-thinking-differently/?utm_source=tkow_story_v2&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_newsletter\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/the-power-of-thinking-differently/?utm_source=tkow_story_v2&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily_newsletter</a>\n</span></em>\n\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What follows below are some excerpts from that column.</span></em>\n\n<strong>Underlying motivations matter</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we look around at the high achievers around us, we see two broad personality types. Type 1 people are striving to achieve new heights within an existing system whereas Type 2 people are challenging the existing system and being a force for change. Both are perfectly sound motivations and most people that we know fall in one of these two buckets. For example, the cricket superstar, Virat Kohli, the son of a criminal lawyer from west Delhi, is clearly driven by the need to becoming the best cricketer on the planet. He has worked very hard to achieve his goals and his weight training, diet and fitness regime in particular has set new standards of physical fitness in Indian cricket.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The celebrated author, Arundhati Roy, on the other hand is driven by the need to speak out against the establishment and in favour of the underdog. Roy, the daughter of renowned social rights activist Aruna Roy, is fundamentally driven by the need to challenge the status quo because of her belief that the status quo gives a raw deal to many groups in Indian society. Roy’s books have brought her fame and fortune but those outcomes are not what drive her to write. Writing is her chosen medium with which to change the world. Roy’s views on the Indian state, the unrestrained descriptions of sexuality in her books have made her the target of abuse by Indian nationalists and conservatives but that doesn’t frazzle her probably because she did not set out in the first place to seek popularity.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Virat Kohli strives for excellence within a pre-existing system (for elite cricketers). Roy strives to bring about change in the system. Both of them, arguably, make our lives richer. However, a Type 1 personality like Kohli does not have to deal with shaking up the status quo and taking on the establishment. Whereas, the Type 2 personality has already broken away from conformity and therefore is already thinking differently. Creative thinking comes more easily to those who want to change the status quo and have a visceral desire to shake up the establishment.</span></em></p>\n<strong>Interests beyond Finance and Investing matter</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In his superb study of original thought, “Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World” (2016), American academic, Adam Grant, notes that the most original thinkers in science – Nobel Prize winning scientists – tend to have the most diverse interests well beyond their scientific pursuits:\n<em>“In a recent study comparing every Nobel Prize-winning scientist from 1901 to 2015 with typical scientists of the same era, both groups attained deep expertise in their respective fields of study. But the Nobel Prize winners were dramatically more likely to be involved in the arts than less accomplished scientists. Here’s what 15 researchers at Michigan State University found about engagement in the arts among Nobel Prize winners relative to ordinary scientists….”</em> [see table below]</span></em></p>\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-573\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2202.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"295\" />\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We believe that this point can also be applied in the context of the investing profession. Investors who are open to cultural and/or professional influences beyond their comfort zone are much more likely to be original thinkers. If you have grown up in financial centres like Mumbai, Singapore or London and these cities – and the lifestyles of the people in it – is all that you see, not only is it harder for you to think originally, it also tougher for you to break away from the conventional markers of success in corporate life. Ultimately, the markers of success which we yearn for end up anchoring our thinking. To have alternative aspirations, one needs to cultivate alternative passions and alternative markers of achievement beyond Finance and Investing.</span></em></p>\n<strong>Working hard and producing lots of ideas helps</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Stanford professor Robert Sutton says that <em>“Originals will come up with many ideas that are strange mutations, dead ends and utter failures. The cost is worthwhile because they also generate a larger pool of ideas – especially novel ideas.” (Source: Weird ideas that worked – 11.5 practices for promoting, managing &amp; sustaining innovation (2001) by Robert Sutton)</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The film director Satyajit Ray directed 36 movies in a 35 year career stretching from the mid-1950s to the early 1990s. In addition he published over two dozen books in Bengali (short stories, novels and poetry) and three books analyzing cinema (in India and around the world). From this phenomenal body of work emerged a few masterworks which have defined filmmaking in the twentieth century. The Apu Trilogy of movies made in the 1950s are regarded as a landmark in global cinema – its portrayal of a rural upbringing in Bengal followed by migration to Kolkata and the highs and lows of married life and parenthood are without equal in Indian cinema. Charulata (1964) is regarded as Ray’s best movie and like the Apu Trilogy garnered awards at home and abroad. More than the awards, Satyajit Ray’s creativity and intense work ethic laid down a template for excellence which paved the way for subsequent generations of film makers like Shyam Benegal and Vishal Bhardwaj. They understood that they did not have to confirm to the norms of Bollywood to build a career in filmmaking.</span></em></p>\n<strong>Don’t worry about being late</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you seek speedy completion of the task at hand, you will almost always produce something which is a rehash of pre-existing ideas. You have to let your mind meander for the original idea to hit you. Some of the most creative equity analysts we have worked with used to routinely produced research notes late regardless of what carrots and sticks were waved at them. Like Arundhati Roy, these creatives are not driven to seek the approval of others and the reward which comes from that. For them creative work is its own reward.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Leonardo da Vinci started painting the Monalisa in 1503 and then left it incomplete. He completed the masterpiece just before his death in 1519. By procrastinating for 16 years, da Vinci significantly increased his chances of producing a masterwork. As art historian William Pannapacker explains:<em> “Leonardo’s studies of how light strikes a sphere, for example, enable the continuous modeling of the “Mona lisa” and “St.John the Baptist”. His work in optics might have delayed a project but his final achievements in painting depended on the experiments…Far from being a distraction like many of his contemporaries thought – they represent a lifetime of productive brainstorming, a private working out of the ideas on which his more public work depended…If creative procrastination, selectively applied, prevented Leonardo from finishing a few commissions – of minor importance when one is struggling with the inner workings of the cosmos – then only someone who is a complete captive of the modern cult of productive mediocrity…could fault him for it…But genius is uncontrolled and uncontrollable. You cannot produce a work of genius according to a schedule or an outline.”</em> (Source: “How to procrastinate like Leonardo da Vinci” by William A.Pannapacker, 2009, The Chronicle of Higher Education)</span></em></p>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The most successful investors are often those who are least plugged into social media. The most successful investors are often geographically located a million miles away from the big financial centres. The most successful investors are often very passionate about things which have nothing to do with Finance and Investing. At the peak of his investing career in the 1970s, Warren Buffett helped create a Pullitzer Prize winning newspaper in Omaha. George Soros has spent serious time and money championing democracy and free markets in Eastern Europe for the past 30 years. Some of India’s most successful investors are also amongst the best Bridge players in the country. Original thinkers – in investing and beyond - neither care for consensus opinions in their specific area of expertise nor confine themselves to mastering only one discipline.</span></em></p>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Non-Conformism Underpins Original Thought', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '572-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-24 07:08:00', '2019-10-24 07:08:00', '', 572, 'http://marcellus.in/572-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(395, 1, '2019-01-24 06:07:16', '2019-01-24 06:07:16', '<em>Published on: 4 Jan, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Major accounting frauds typically come to light when liquidity tightens. Given the over 2% point jump in money market rates in India in the last 12 months, the probability of major accounting fraud coming to light in the Indian stockmarket is growing. </strong>\n\n<i>“In many ways, capital markets are designed to circulate good news. Financial services firms…typically make more money when share prices rise. Corporate issuers are incentivized to announce good news…and investors to believe it. This dynamic is part of what occasionally creates asset bubbles and boom/bust cycles. Investors who remain objective and sceptical, while the herds echo and amplify each other’s excitement, have a better chance of profiting from the more blatant disconnects from reality.”</i> <strong>– Howard Schilit, Financial Shenanigans (2018) </strong>\n\n<strong>When liquidity tightens….</strong>\nIn recent months Marcellus has highlighted how a combination of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, strong government spending (fuelling booming consumption) alongside sclerotic tax collection almost certainly condemns India to rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs in the wholesale money market. The money market is now the lifeblood of the Indian economy since the CASA (current & savings account) funded public sector banks have been washed away by NPAs. In this note, we dwell on a different dimension of the liquidity crunch – accounting fraud and why such frauds come to light in the midst of a rising interest rate environment. \n\n<strong>….Enron, WorldCom, Satyam and Madoff emerge from the woodwork</strong>\nThe most spectacular accounting frauds usually come to light when the stockmarket is tanking and the cost of money is rising. So, for example, Satyam imploded in January 2009, four months after the Lehman bust triggered a liquidity freeze in India; the scandal in Enron came to light in October 2001, 15 months after the dotcom bust and a month after 9/11 had pushed the US stockmarket further into the mire; WorldCom filed for bankruptcy in July 2002 after having cooked its books frenetically in the wake of the dotcom bust; and Bernie Madoff confessed to his sons in December 2008 – three months after Lehhman went under – that his wealth management scheme was in reality a massive Ponzi scheme. As night follows day, when liquidity tightens, big accounting scams come to light.\n\nWhy does this happen? We think there are three reasons. Firstly, the central driver of accounting fraud is the promoter’s need/desire to siphon cash out of the company. When liquidity is easily available, he can either cover his tracks by borrowing money in his own name and infusing it in the company (say, through short term loans) or the company itself can avail of short term loans. The surfeit of liquidity sloshing around the company creates an impression that everything is alright. However, when liquidity tightens, these short term loans dry up and staff/suppliers/creditors raise the alarm that the company is out of cash. By this juncture, typically the Indian promoter has taken flight. \n\nSecondly, the money that the promoter borrows is usually collateralised by either his properties or his shares. A liquidity crunch typically hits the value of both of these asset classes. That in turn leads lenders to issue margin calls to promoters. Thus, the promoter – who has already pilfered money from his listed entity – now finds himself being chased by his lenders. It wasn’t a coincidence we think that two prominent Indian jewellers took flight six months after wholesale money market rates started rising in India (from August 2017 onwards). Unless a miracle shores up the value of real estate and shares in India, we should expect more promoters to take flight rather than taking the trouble to meet margin calls. \n\nThirdly, in a growing economy corporates can show genuine growth in revenues and hence growing working capital needs. Hence in a booming economy everyone – shareholders, auditors, lenders – buys the logic of rising short term borrowing to finance working capital needs (even though the actual driver of higher borrowing might be the promoter’s pilferage of cash). When the economy then slows – in the wake of rising interest rates – that fig leaf is removed. The auditors, with their professional reputation on the line, now become less willing to sign off on growing pile of receivables. Given that from 2018 onwards, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs has oversight of the audit profession in India, we expect an increasing number of auditors to pull the plug on promoters who are cooking the books.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nThe fledgling team in Marcellus, staffed with Chartered Accountants and CFA charterholders, spends most its time reading annual reports and building forensic accounting screens. Our models are telling us that a disproportionate number of Indian companies who have enjoyed generous lending terms from Indian lenders (private and public, banks and NBFCs) in recent years have smelly accounting. Therefore, unless there is a sharp pullback in the next six months in borrowing costs (say, on the back of a big drop in oil prices) the bells will toll for promoters who are fudging the figures and their lenders.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\n\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'Accounting fraud and liquidity crunches are bedfellows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '355-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 06:07:16', '2019-01-24 06:07:16', '', 355, 'http://marcellus.in/355-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(349, 1, '2019-01-15 06:41:59', '2019-01-15 06:41:59', '', 'Three longs & three shorts [13th Jan 2018]', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'three-longs-three-shorts-13th-jan-2018', '', '', '2019-01-15 06:41:59', '2019-01-15 06:41:59', '', 56, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Three-longs-three-shorts-13th-Jan-2018.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(350, 1, '2019-01-16 05:08:10', '2019-01-16 05:08:10', '', 'Rakshit Ranjan', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rakshit', '', '', '2019-01-16 05:08:20', '2019-01-16 05:08:20', '', 335, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/rakshit.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(351, 1, '2018-09-20 05:16:48', '2018-09-20 05:16:48', '<em>Published on: 20 Sep, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Exhaustive research by American political scientists, Chris Achen &amp; Larry Bartels, shows that elections neither produce responsive governments nor do voters elect leaders who can tangibly impact economic outcomes and stockmarkets. </strong>\r\n\r\n“An understanding of the importance of the desire for recognition as the motor of history allows us to reinterpret many phenomena that are otherwise seemingly familiar to us, such as culture, religion, work, nationalism, and war…A religious believer, for example, seeks recognition for his particular gods or sacred practices, while a nationalist demands recognition for his particular linguistic, cultural, or ethnic group. …liberal politics and <u>liberal economics frequently rests on irrational forms of recognition that liberalism was supposed to overcome. For democracy to work, citizens need to develop an irrational pride in their own democratic institutions, and must also develop what Tocqueville called the “art of associating,” which rests on prideful attachment to small communities. These communities are frequently based on religion, ethnicity, or other forms of recognition that fall short of the universal recognition on which the liberal state is based.</u>”\r\n<strong>- Francis Fukuyama in ‘The End of History and the Last Man’ (1992) </strong>[the underlining is ours]\r\n\r\n<strong>Huntington &amp; Fukuyama – the political scientists who riled the liberals </strong>\r\nIn the 1990s, two books by iconoclastic political scientists – “The Clash of Civlisations and the Remaking of World Order” (1996) by Samuel Huntington and “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) by his disciple, Francis Fukuyama – riled plenty of liberals. Both of these men cocked a snook at the then prevailing orthodoxy and said that we are all very tribal people who will ultimately identify with, look after and care for our own. So, if you are Indian Hindu you will live in a perpetual state of tension with Indian Muslims. If you are a White Anglo Saxon Protestant American, you will struggle to live peacefully with Americans of a different colour or creed. The idealist inside many of us recoiled at the ideas trumpeted by these men but events in the last 25 years have largely validated the thesis put forward by these two original thinkers.\r\nIn fact, a subsequent generation of political scientists, enriched by learnings from behavioural science and big data analysis, have shown just how right Huntington &amp; Fukuyama are. In a remarkable book continuing exhaustive statistical analysis of American voting patterns and published five months before Donald Trump was elected President of the USA, Christopher Achen &amp; Larry Bartels wrote:\r\n“The primary implications of our analysis of retrospective voting is that election outcomes are mostly just erratic reflections of the current balance of partisan loyalties in a given political system. In a two-party system with competitive elections, that means that the choice between the candidates is essentially a coin toss. Thus, the picture that emerges is not “a portrait of citizens moved to considered decision as they play their solemn role of making and unmaking governments…” <u>Rather, elections are capricious collective decisions based on considerations that ought…to be largely irrelevant – and that will, in any case, soon be forgotten by the voters themselves</u>….Research in other countries have generally produced similar portraits of democratic citizens. Their ideological self-placements are often driven more by partisanship than by policy positions….Can ordinary people, busy with their lives and with no firsthand experience of policy-making or public administration, do what the theory expects them to? Can they formulate policy preferences, assess where candidates stand on the issues, set aside cognitive biases and group prejudices, and then choose a candidate who embodies an uplifting version of their own policy views?” <strong>[Source: ‘Democracy for Realists: Why Elections do not Produce Responsive Government’ (2016)]</strong> [the underlining is ours]\r\n\r\nAchen &amp; Bartels use clever number crunching to hammer home the point that we vote with our heart, not with our head. Here are a couple of examples:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Across the world, incumbent governments were punished for the post-Lehman bust of 2008-10 with no consideration of whether their country did better or worse than the average country in navigating the crisis.</li>\r\n 	<li>Governors in oil rich American states tend to have a much higher probability of being re-elected when oil prices rise. “Similarly, voters in pro-cyclical states are consistently fooled into re-electing incumbents during national booms, only to dump them in national recessions.” (Source: Justin Wolfers, ‘Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIndian political scientists too have crunched numbers and produced sobering conclusions. In ‘When Crime Pays: Money &amp; Muscle in Indian Politics’ (2017), Milan Vaishnav has highlighted that the probability of a candidate winning an election in India is materially higher if he has a criminal track record. Vaishnav explains that voters want to support politicians who are expert rent seekers so that these politicians can then share the spoils with his supporters. A criminal track record is perhaps the most effective way for a candidate to signal his rent seeking credentials. To quote Vaishnav:\r\n\r\n“Money helps grease the wheels, but voters too have a rational incentive to back politicians with criminal reputations. In places where the rule of law is weak and social divisions are rife, politicians can use their criminality as a signal of their ability to do whatever it takes to protect the interests of their community – from dispensing justice and guaranteeing security to providing a social safety net. What the Indian state has been unable to provide, strongmen have promised to deliver in spades. What this means in practice is that voters are not necessarily blind to the predilections of the political class; many voters vote for politicians because, rather than in spite, of their criminal reputations.”\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nNone of this is to deny the importance of the electoral process and the rituals associated with it. If not anything else, it gives people a voice even if they cannot use that voice to elect responsive governments. However, from the narrow perspective of investors in financial markets, elections are a sideshow for those who are willing to look beyond the keen jerk reactions of the market to election results. Time and again, we have seen in India and elsewhere that the reflex reaction of the market to election results is not a signal with any lasting value. In fact, just looking at Sensex returns under Congress versus non-Congress governments in India (20% CAGR vs 8% CAGR) is sufficient to dispel any notion that election outcomes have anything to do with stockmarket returns.\r\n\r\nEconomic factors do matter – we find that 58% of the Sensex’s returns over the past 15 years are driven by three macro factors (exchange rates, interest rates and GDP growth) – but since economic and political outcomes in India do not appear to be correlated to each other, investors should focus on the economy rather than obsessing about the forthcoming Assembly &amp; General Elections in India. Thankfully, directional forecasting of the economy is easier (albeit less interesting) than the far trickier exercise of forecasting election results.\r\n\r\nOur thanks to James Crabtree for pointing us towards Achen &amp; Bartels’ super book. James’ book on India, “The Billionaire Raj”, has been nominated for the FT &amp; McKinsey ‘Book of the Year, 2018’.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'Elections are irrelevant for equity investors', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'elections-are-irrelevant-for-equity-investors', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:41:25', '2019-11-04 09:41:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=351', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2151, 1, '2019-11-04 09:35:46', '2019-11-04 09:35:46', '<em>Published on: 20 Sep, 2018</em>\n\n<strong>Exhaustive research by American political scientists, Chris Achen &amp; Larry Bartels, shows that elections neither produce responsive governments nor do voters elect leaders who can tangibly impact economic outcomes and stockmarkets. </strong>\n\n“An understanding of the importance of the desire for recognition as the motor of history allows us to reinterpret many phenomena that are otherwise seemingly familiar to us, such as culture, religion, work, nationalism, and war…A religious believer, for example, seeks recognition for his particular gods or sacred practices, while a nationalist demands recognition for his particular linguistic, cultural, or ethnic group. …liberal politics and <u>liberal economics frequently rests on irrational forms of recognition that liberalism was supposed to overcome. For democracy to work, citizens need to develop an irrational pride in their own democratic institutions, and must also develop what Tocqueville called the “art of associating,” which rests on prideful attachment to small communities. These communities are frequently based on religion, ethnicity, or other forms of recognition that fall short of the universal recognition on which the liberal state is based.</u>”\n<strong>- Francis Fukuyama in ‘The End of History and the Last Man’ (1992) </strong>[the underlining is ours]\n\n<strong>Huntington &amp; Fukuyama – the political scientists who riled the liberals </strong>\nIn the 1990s, two books by iconoclastic political scientists – “The Clash of Civlisations and the Remaking of World Order” (1996) by Samuel Huntington and “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) by his disciple, Francis Fukuyama – riled plenty of liberals. Both of these men cocked a snook at the then prevailing orthodoxy and said that we are all very tribal people who will ultimately identify with, look after and care for our own. So, if you are Indian Hindu you will live in a perpetual state of tension with Indian Muslims. If you are a White Anglo Saxon Protestant American, you will struggle to live peacefully with Americans of a different colour or creed. The idealist inside many of us recoiled at the ideas trumpeted by these men but events in the last 25 years have largely validated the thesis put forward by these two original thinkers.\nIn fact, a subsequent generation of political scientists, enriched by learnings from behavioural science and big data analysis, have shown just how right Huntington &amp; Fukuyama are. In a remarkable book continuing exhaustive statistical analysis of American voting patterns and published five months before Donald Trump was elected President of the USA, Christopher Achen &amp; Larry Bartels wrote:\n“The primary implications of our analysis of retrospective voting is that election outcomes are mostly just erratic reflections of the current balance of partisan loyalties in a given political system. In a two-party system with competitive elections, that means that the choice between the candidates is essentially a coin toss. Thus, the picture that emerges is not “a portrait of citizens moved to considered decision as they play their solemn role of making and unmaking governments…” <u>Rather, elections are capricious collective decisions based on considerations that ought…to be largely irrelevant – and that will, in any case, soon be forgotten by the voters themselves</u>….Research in other countries have generally produced similar portraits of democratic citizens. Their ideological self-placements are often driven more by partisanship than by policy positions….Can ordinary people, busy with their lives and with no firsthand experience of policy-making or public administration, do what the theory expects them to? Can they formulate policy preferences, assess where candidates stand on the issues, set aside cognitive biases and group prejudices, and then choose a candidate who embodies an uplifting version of their own policy views?” <strong>[Source: ‘Democracy for Realists: Why Elections do not Produce Responsive Government’ (2016)]</strong> [the underlining is ours]\n\nAchen &amp; Bartels use clever number crunching to hammer home the point that we vote with our heart, not with our head. Here are a couple of examples:\n<ul>\n 	<li>Across the world, incumbent governments were punished for the post-Lehman bust of 2008-10 with no consideration of whether their country did better or worse than the average country in navigating the crisis.</li>\n 	<li>Governors in oil rich American states tend to have a much higher probability of being re-elected when oil prices rise. “Similarly, voters in pro-cyclical states are consistently fooled into re-electing incumbents during national booms, only to dump them in national recessions.” (Source: Justin Wolfers, ‘Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial Elections)</li>\n</ul>\nIndian political scientists too have crunched numbers and produced sobering conclusions. In ‘When Crime Pays: Money &amp; Muscle in Indian Politics’ (2017), Milan Vaishnav has highlighted that the probability of a candidate winning an election in India is materially higher if he has a criminal track record. Vaishnav explains that voters want to support politicians who are expert rent seekers so that these politicians can then share the spoils with his supporters. A criminal track record is perhaps the most effective way for a candidate to signal his rent seeking credentials. To quote Vaishnav:\n\n“Money helps grease the wheels, but voters too have a rational incentive to back politicians with criminal reputations. In places where the rule of law is weak and social divisions are rife, politicians can use their criminality as a signal of their ability to do whatever it takes to protect the interests of their community – from dispensing justice and guaranteeing security to providing a social safety net. What the Indian state has been unable to provide, strongmen have promised to deliver in spades. What this means in practice is that voters are not necessarily blind to the predilections of the political class; many voters vote for politicians because, rather than in spite, of their criminal reputations.”\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nNone of this is to deny the importance of the electoral process and the rituals associated with it. If not anything else, it gives people a voice even if they cannot use that voice to elect responsive governments. However, from the narrow perspective of investors in financial markets, elections are a sideshow for those who are willing to look beyond the keen jerk reactions of the market to election results. Time and again, we have seen in India and elsewhere that the reflex reaction of the market to election results is not a signal with any lasting value. In fact, just looking at Sensex returns under Congress versus non-Congress governments in India (20% CAGR vs 8% CAGR) is sufficient to dispel any notion that election outcomes have anything to do with stockmarket returns.\n\nEconomic factors do matter – we find that 58% of the Sensex’s returns over the past 15 years are driven by three macro factors (exchange rates, interest rates and GDP growth) – but since economic and political outcomes in India do not appear to be correlated to each other, investors should focus on the economy rather than obsessing about the forthcoming Assembly &amp; General Elections in India. Thankfully, directional forecasting of the economy is easier (albeit less interesting) than the far trickier exercise of forecasting election results.\n\nOur thanks to James Crabtree for pointing us towards Achen &amp; Bartels’ super book. James’ book on India, “The Billionaire Raj”, has been nominated for the FT &amp; McKinsey ‘Book of the Year, 2018’.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\n\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'Elections are irrelevant for equity investors', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '351-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:35:46', '2019-11-04 09:35:46', '', 351, 'https://marcellus.in/351-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(355, 1, '2018-09-29 06:37:25', '2018-09-29 06:37:25', '<em>Published on: 29 Sep, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Major accounting frauds typically come to light when liquidity tightens. Given the over 2% point jump in money market rates in India in the last 12 months, the probability of major accounting fraud coming to light in the Indian stockmarket is growing. </strong>\r\n\r\n<i>“In many ways, capital markets are designed to circulate good news. Financial services firms…typically make more money when share prices rise. Corporate issuers are incentivized to announce good news…and investors to believe it. This dynamic is part of what occasionally creates asset bubbles and boom/bust cycles. Investors who remain objective and sceptical, while the herds echo and amplify each other’s excitement, have a better chance of profiting from the more blatant disconnects from reality.”</i> <strong>– Howard Schilit, Financial Shenanigans (2018) </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>When liquidity tightens….</strong>\r\nIn recent months Marcellus has highlighted how a combination of a strong dollar, rising oil prices, strong government spending (fuelling booming consumption) alongside sclerotic tax collection almost certainly condemns India to rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs in the wholesale money market. The money market is now the lifeblood of the Indian economy since the CASA (current &amp; savings account) funded public sector banks have been washed away by NPAs. In this note, we dwell on a different dimension of the liquidity crunch – accounting fraud and why such frauds come to light in the midst of a rising interest rate environment.\r\n\r\n<strong>….Enron, WorldCom, Satyam and Madoff emerge from the woodwork</strong>\r\nThe most spectacular accounting frauds usually come to light when the stockmarket is tanking and the cost of money is rising. So, for example, Satyam imploded in January 2009, four months after the Lehman bust triggered a liquidity freeze in India; the scandal in Enron came to light in October 2001, 15 months after the dotcom bust and a month after 9/11 had pushed the US stockmarket further into the mire; WorldCom filed for bankruptcy in July 2002 after having cooked its books frenetically in the wake of the dotcom bust; and Bernie Madoff confessed to his sons in December 2008 – three months after Lehhman went under – that his wealth management scheme was in reality a massive Ponzi scheme. As night follows day, when liquidity tightens, big accounting scams come to light.\r\n\r\nWhy does this happen? We think there are three reasons. Firstly, the central driver of accounting fraud is the promoter’s need/desire to siphon cash out of the company. When liquidity is easily available, he can either cover his tracks by borrowing money in his own name and infusing it in the company (say, through short term loans) or the company itself can avail of short term loans. The surfeit of liquidity sloshing around the company creates an impression that everything is alright. However, when liquidity tightens, these short term loans dry up and staff/suppliers/creditors raise the alarm that the company is out of cash. By this juncture, typically the Indian promoter has taken flight.\r\n\r\nSecondly, the money that the promoter borrows is usually collateralised by either his properties or his shares. A liquidity crunch typically hits the value of both of these asset classes. That in turn leads lenders to issue margin calls to promoters. Thus, the promoter – who has already pilfered money from his listed entity – now finds himself being chased by his lenders. It wasn’t a coincidence we think that two prominent Indian jewellers took flight six months after wholesale money market rates started rising in India (from August 2017 onwards). Unless a miracle shores up the value of real estate and shares in India, we should expect more promoters to take flight rather than taking the trouble to meet margin calls.\r\n\r\nThirdly, in a growing economy corporates can show genuine growth in revenues and hence growing working capital needs. Hence in a booming economy everyone – shareholders, auditors, lenders – buys the logic of rising short term borrowing to finance working capital needs (even though the actual driver of higher borrowing might be the promoter’s pilferage of cash). When the economy then slows – in the wake of rising interest rates – that fig leaf is removed. The auditors, with their professional reputation on the line, now become less willing to sign off on growing pile of receivables. Given that from 2018 onwards, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs has oversight of the audit profession in India, we expect an increasing number of auditors to pull the plug on promoters who are cooking the books.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nThe fledgling team in Marcellus, staffed with Chartered Accountants and CFA charterholders, spends most its time reading annual reports and building forensic accounting screens. Our models are telling us that a disproportionate number of Indian companies who have enjoyed generous lending terms from Indian lenders (private and public, banks and NBFCs) in recent years have smelly accounting. Therefore, unless there is a sharp pullback in the next six months in borrowing costs (say, on the back of a big drop in oil prices) the bells will toll for promoters who are fudging the figures and their lenders.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'Accounting fraud and liquidity crunches are bedfellows', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'accounting-fraud-and-liquidity-crunches-are-bedfellows', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:38:32', '2019-11-06 06:38:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=355', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(356, 1, '2018-10-05 06:48:40', '2018-10-05 06:48:40', '<em>Published on: 5 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Evolution has trained us to use ‘thumb rules’ to simplify complex decisions. However, when these thumb rules don’t work, we are prone to delusional thinking. Our belief in heroes is one such delusion.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Evolution has taught us to take mental shortcuts</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our second piece for The Ken, my friend, Anupam Gupta and I delve into how much work the human brain has to do even to make simple decisions such as choosing between various flavours of ice-cream. Even whilst making such straightforward decisions, the brain does not make the same decision when faced with the same choice in identical circumstances! Thankfully, evolution has given us a method to reduce all this hassle – heuristics i.e. mental thumb rules or mental shortcuts which help us simplify complex decisions into simple ones eg. faced with two equally well qualified applicants for a role in Marcellus, our thumb rule will tell us to hire the person with work experience in more demanding roles.\r\n\r\nThe very fact that we survive suggests that most of these thumb rules work more often than not. They help us simplify complex decisions and thus save our mental firepower for more decisions more critical than choosing between flavours of ice cream. However, sometimes these thumb rules let us down and we land in hot water.\r\n\r\nThe Ken has very kindly made the piece available free of charge.\r\n<strong>Hero worship is a dangerous mental shortcut</strong>\r\n\r\nIn a heterogeneous country like India where most institutions are weak, where the rule of law is enforced unevenly and where trust between economic agents tends to be low, we have a strong tendency towards hero worship.\r\n\r\nAs we highlight in our latest piece for The Ken, there is an <i>“obsession in the Indian media about the heroic Indian cricket captain…A Martian reading the Indian press would believe that Indian cricket’s success at any point in time hinges largely on the abilities (or lack thereof) of the cricket captain.</i>\r\n\r\n<i>In the 1970s, India was awful at one-day internationals (ODIs). Then, in the early 1980s, we started improving and won the World Cup in 1983. After that, the steady trend of improvement in our win-loss ratio in ODIs continued. In fact, the improvement continues to this day.</i>\r\n\r\n<i>Along the way, we had several successful captains. In spite of these leaders having had several high points in their career…and in spite of the underlying 40-year win-loss trend being positive, each of these leaders went through phases where they were seen as less than ideal. During these phases, they were slammed for all sorts of reasons— loss of form, advancing age, decadent lifestyles, etc…Our success is a combination of many factors that have shaped the sport over the years—from our coaching facilities to the fitness regime and the diet of our players, a larger role for technology and, finally, the financial package of the players. </i>\r\n\r\n<i>There is no way that India could have produced a player as fit… as Virat Kohli in the 1970s. In the India that we grew up in, enabling facilities like high-quality gyms didn’t even exist outside of five-star hotels. Kohli is part of the same structural time trend that has given us a wonderful Under-19 World Cup winning team with players who are streets ahead of the age group opposition.</i>\r\n\r\n<i>However, it is hard to enjoy a narrative around a structural time trend. We need the glory and glamour of a dashing leader either leading us to victory or cruelly betraying our trust. We have an emotional need to dramatise and personalise a trend that is, in reality, underpinned by steady, institutional improvements.”</i>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nSome of us tend to use “hero worship” as a framework for thinking about business i.e. we gravitate towards companies where the promoter/CEO is a clean, capable and hardworking – basically, a god-like figure who delivers outstanding results. Phil Rosenzweig of IMD has shredded this thought framework into little pieces. Rosenzweig worked at HP for seven years before teaching at first Harvard and then at IMD. As he highlights in The McKinsey Quarterly (2007, number 1):\r\n\r\n<i>“Many studies of company performance are undermined by a problem known as the halo effect. First identified by US psychologist Edward Thorndike in 1920, it describes the tendency to make specific inferences on the basis of a general impression</i>\r\n\r\n<i>How does the halo effect manifest itself in the business world? Imagine a company that is doing well, with rising sales, high profits, and a sharply increasing stock price. The tendency is to infer that the company has a sound strategy, a visionary leader, motivated employees, an excellent customer orientation, a vibrant culture and so on. But when the same company suffers a decline – if sales fall and profits shrink – many people are quick to conclude that the company’s strategy went wrong, its people became complacent, it neglected its customers, its culture became stodgy and more. In fact, these things may not have changed much, if at all. Rather, company performance, good or bad, creates an overall impression – a halo – that shapes how we perceive its strategy, leaders, employees, culture, and other elements.” </i>\r\n\r\nAnd then there are some investors who extend this framework to politics i.e. they look for a leader who can lead the nation to greater glory. Try telling them in economies as big, as complex as, say, the US or India, it is not conceivable that one man/woman can make a difference, they will point you towards a “before &amp; after” time trend i.e. before the hero arrived our shirts were off-white and then thanks to the hero’s cleansing effect, our shirts became dazzling white. Rather than arguing with the believers, we prefer to tune into Tina Turner hit from ”Mad Max: Beyond Thunder dome” (1985), a movie from our childhood:\r\n\r\n<i>We don\'t need another hero, we don\'t need to know the way home,\r\nAll we want is life beyond the Thunderdome\r\nLooking for something we can rely on\r\nThere\'s got to be something better out there.</i>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'The Hero Delusion in Sport, Business & Elsewhere', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-hero-delusion-in-sport-business-elsewhere', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:24:38', '2019-11-04 09:24:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=356', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(357, 1, '2019-01-16 09:47:10', '2019-01-16 09:47:10', '<h3>About us</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-16 09:47:10', '2019-01-16 09:47:10', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(358, 1, '2019-01-16 09:48:23', '2019-01-16 09:48:23', '<h3>An Overview</h3>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that we have received the approval from SEBI to launch our Portfolio Management Service. Our first product will be the Consistent Compounders Portfolio. We are in the process of setting up our operations and should be in a position to take in applications from 1st December.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-16 09:48:23', '2019-01-16 09:48:23', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(360, 1, '2019-01-16 10:03:34', '2019-01-16 10:03:34', '<p>Prior to joining Marcellus, Sudhanshu was Executive Assistant to the CEO at Ambit Capital and worked in the Institutional Equities’ Strategy team. He has also worked with KPMG in the statutory audit team from 2013 to 2016 gaining extensive experience across Indian accounting standards, financial control systems and financial statement analysis & reviews. </p>\n<p><span>Qualifications : </span>Sudhanshu is a qualified Chartered Accountant and a CFA Level 3 candidate. He has completed his graduation in Commerce from Mumbai University.</p>		', 'Sudhanshu Nahta', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '51-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-16 10:03:34', '2019-01-16 10:03:34', '', 51, 'http://marcellus.in/51-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(362, 1, '2019-11-04 09:21:00', '2019-11-04 09:21:00', '<em>Published on: 5 Oct, 2018</em>\n\n<strong>Evolution has trained us to use ‘thumb rules’ to simplify complex decisions. However, when these thumb rules don’t work, we are prone to delusional thinking. Our belief in heroes is one such delusion.</strong>\n\n<strong>Evolution has taught us to take mental shortcuts</strong>\n\nIn our second piece for The Ken, my friend, Anupam Gupta and I delve into how much work the human brain has to do even to make simple decisions such as choosing between various flavours of ice-cream. Even whilst making such straightforward decisions, the brain does not make the same decision when faced with the same choice in identical circumstances! Thankfully, evolution has given us a method to reduce all this hassle – heuristics i.e. mental thumb rules or mental shortcuts which help us simplify complex decisions into simple ones eg. faced with two equally well qualified applicants for a role in Marcellus, our thumb rule will tell us to hire the person with work experience in more demanding roles.\n\nThe very fact that we survive suggests that most of these thumb rules work more often than not. They help us simplify complex decisions and thus save our mental firepower for more decisions more critical than choosing between flavours of ice cream. However, sometimes these thumb rules let us down and we land in hot water.\n\nThe Ken has very kindly made the piece available free of charge.\n<strong>Hero worship is a dangerous mental shortcut</strong>\n\nIn a heterogeneous country like India where most institutions are weak, where the rule of law is enforced unevenly and where trust between economic agents tends to be low, we have a strong tendency towards hero worship.\n\nAs we highlight in our latest piece for The Ken, there is an <i>“obsession in the Indian media about the heroic Indian cricket captain…A Martian reading the Indian press would believe that Indian cricket’s success at any point in time hinges largely on the abilities (or lack thereof) of the cricket captain.</i>\n\n<i>In the 1970s, India was awful at one-day internationals (ODIs). Then, in the early 1980s, we started improving and won the World Cup in 1983. After that, the steady trend of improvement in our win-loss ratio in ODIs continued. In fact, the improvement continues to this day.</i>\n\n<i>Along the way, we had several successful captains. In spite of these leaders having had several high points in their career…and in spite of the underlying 40-year win-loss trend being positive, each of these leaders went through phases where they were seen as less than ideal. During these phases, they were slammed for all sorts of reasons— loss of form, advancing age, decadent lifestyles, etc…Our success is a combination of many factors that have shaped the sport over the years—from our coaching facilities to the fitness regime and the diet of our players, a larger role for technology and, finally, the financial package of the players. </i>\n\n<i>There is no way that India could have produced a player as fit… as Virat Kohli in the 1970s. In the India that we grew up in, enabling facilities like high-quality gyms didn’t even exist outside of five-star hotels. Kohli is part of the same structural time trend that has given us a wonderful Under-19 World Cup winning team with players who are streets ahead of the age group opposition.</i>\n\n<i>However, it is hard to enjoy a narrative around a structural time trend. We need the glory and glamour of a dashing leader either leading us to victory or cruelly betraying our trust. We have an emotional need to dramatise and personalise a trend that is, in reality, underpinned by steady, institutional improvements.”</i>\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\nSome of us tend to use “hero worship” as a framework for thinking about business i.e. we gravitate towards companies where the promoter/CEO is a clean, capable and hardworking – basically, a god-like figure who delivers outstanding results. Phil Rosenzweig of IMD has shredded this thought framework into little pieces. Rosenzweig worked at HP for seven years before teaching at first Harvard and then at IMD. As he highlights in The McKinsey Quarterly (2007, number 1):\n\n<i>“Many studies of company performance are undermined by a problem known as the halo effect. First identified by US psychologist Edward Thorndike in 1920, it describes the tendency to make specific inferences on the basis of a general impression</i>\n\n<i>How does the halo effect manifest itself in the business world? Imagine a company that is doing well, with rising sales, high profits, and a sharply increasing stock price. The tendency is to infer that the company has a sound strategy, a visionary leader, motivated employees, an excellent customer orientation, a vibrant culture and so on. But when the same company suffers a decline – if sales fall and profits shrink – many people are quick to conclude that the company’s strategy went wrong, its people became complacent, it neglected its customers, its culture became stodgy and more. In fact, these things may not have changed much, if at all. Rather, company performance, good or bad, creates an overall impression – a halo – that shapes how we perceive its strategy, leaders, employees, culture, and other elements.” </i>\n\nAnd then there are some investors who extend this framework to politics i.e. they look for a leader who can lead the nation to greater glory. Try telling them in economies as big, as complex as, say, the US or India, it is not conceivable that one man/woman can make a difference, they will point you towards a “before &amp; after” time trend i.e. before the hero arrived our shirts were off-white and then thanks to the hero’s cleansing effect, our shirts became dazzling white. Rather than arguing with the believers, we prefer to tune into Tina Turner hit from ”Mad Max: Beyond Thunder dome” (1985), a movie from our childhood:\n\n<i>We don\'t need another hero, we don\'t need to know the way home,\nAll we want is life beyond the Thunderdome\nLooking for something we can rely on\nThere\'s got to be something better out there.</i>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\n\n<i>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers. </i>', 'The Hero Delusion in Sport, Business & Elsewhere', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '356-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:21:00', '2019-11-04 09:21:00', '', 356, 'http://marcellus.in/356-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(422, 1, '2018-12-23 14:18:27', '2018-12-23 14:18:27', '<em>Published on: 23 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a><span style=\"color:red;\">]</span>  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '23rd-dec-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=422', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(367, 1, '2019-01-22 12:40:21', '2019-01-22 12:40:21', '<strong>Alongside our forensic accounting model, we also use questioning techniques popularised by the CIA to figure out whether the CEOs we are meeting are making things up. </strong>\n\n<strong>“He that has eyes to see and ears to hear may convince himself that no mortal can keep a secret. If his lips are silent, he chatters with his fingertips; betrayal oozes out of him at every pore.” – Sigmund Freud </strong>\n\n<strong>Forensic accounting is our primary line of defence</strong>\n\nMarcellus’ forensic accounting model stratifies the Indian stockmarket into ten deciles wherein decile 1 contains the cleanest companies and decile 10 contains companies who are almost completely fabricating their financial statements. If we overlay on these deciles the amount of debt companies have taken, we can see that the companies in the three worst deciles have the highest debt:equity ratios. Keeping in mind that there are several large cap companies in the three worst deciles, it is certain that as interest rates continue to rise, we will see more prominent companies blowing up. The question is that, forensic accounting apart, can we spot them before they blow-up? The answer is an emphatic “yes” – a mixture of adequate diligence on companies combined with the use of questioning techniques popularised by the CIA can be very effective in spotting liars. \n\n<strong>The L-squared technique is our secondary line of defence</strong>\n\nThe specific skill that intelligence officers are taught is to go into L-squared mode (“look & listen”) as soon as they ask a question because research shows that most of the “tells” come within five seconds of the question being asked. So what are the tells that we look out for? [We have ranked these by order of effectiveness i.e. as you go down the list, the tells have a higher reliability rate.] \n\n<ul>\n	<li><strong>The story behind the numbers:</strong> Every set of financial statements has a story embedded in it. In a genuine set of financial statements, not only does the story make sense (eg. revenue growth is a few percentage points higher than nominal GDP growth, profitability growth is a few percentage points faster than that thanks to efficiency improvements and growth in free cashflows is a little bit faster than profit growth thanks to improvement in working capital) but the CEO also knows the story pretty well (without having to referring to a Powerpoint deck). When the CEO can’t clearly tell us the story embedded in his own financial statements and/or when the CEO and the CFO tell us different stories about the same set of accounts, our antennae go up</li>\n<li><strong>Buying time:</strong> Abraham Lincoln said that “No man has a good enough memory to be a successful liar.” We find that even when faced with straightforward questions, a liar will need to buy time. Why? Because making things up takes time and effort even though the human mind works 10x faster than we talk. Therefore, buying two seconds – by giving long winded answers or by using “no answer” statements (like “that is a great question” or “that’s a legitimate concern”) or by repeating the question – is actually the equivalent of twenty seconds of thinking time. So if we see a CEO who repeatedly buys time in a meeting, we start worrying.\n</li>\n<li><strong>The “Halo Effect”</strong> – Often in response to our question, the CEO will begin by making a statement which is intended to enhance his status (in our eyes). So for example, when we asked the CEO of an auto ancillary company why his capex was equivalent to 10% of his revenues in the last three years. He began his answer by saying “You have to realise my relationships with Japanese OEMs goes back 30 years...” By making status enhancing statements, the CEO is asserting his dominance over us and using a time tested trick – as shown by Stanley Milgram in a legendary experiment (see <a target=\"_b\" href=\"https://explorable.com/stanley-milgram-experiment\">https://explorable.com/stanleymilgram-experiment</a>) we are wired to believe people in positions of power! If the CEO punctuates the meeting with multiple status enhancing statements, it is time to think about an early flight home and dinner with the family.\n</li>\n<li><strong>Belittling:</strong> If a CEO feels cornered and/or if his brain is getting scrambled, he will take to belittling our questions. Eg. when we asked a promoter why he had purchased six luxury cars using the company’s money, his response began “I have been running this company for 20 years and have met hundreds of major foreign investors over the years but none of them have raised this issue.” [That masterly statement from the CEO contains status enhancers, evasion and belittling of Marcellus.] \n</li>\n<li><strong>Anger:</strong> This is the most compelling tell. When the CEO loses it and starts threatening us or abusing us, we are almost 100% sure that his wicket is about to fall. Between us, we have 30 years of experience of probing companies and we have not found a single instance where an abusive/threatening CEO or promoter has lasted for more than five years after threatening us. \n</li></ul>\n\nIn isolation each of these tells merely arouses suspicion rather than confirming that the CEO is a liar. However, if we encounter three or more of these tells in the same meeting then our house rule is to move on to other, cleaner companies.\n\nIf you want to read more about how to spot liars, a good book to read is “Spy the Lie” by three ex-CIA operatives – Philip Houston, Michael Floyd and Susan Carnicero. Our thanks to Nitin Bhasin at Ambit Capital for bringing this book to our notice. \n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\n\n', 'Spotting the Liar in the Boardroom', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '366-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-22 12:40:21', '2019-01-22 12:40:21', '', 366, 'http://marcellus.in/366-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(368, 1, '2018-10-19 12:56:03', '2018-10-19 12:56:03', '<em>Published on: 19 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Rather than being a corporate Superwoman, the Effective CEO is an honest, industrious, well informed executive who is aware of her limitations and understands that her conduct and her incentive structure sets the tone for the rest of the firm.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“Buffett manages his CEOs just like he manages his stock purchases. He carefully choses them and doesn’t ask them to do anything different as a result of his ownership. He is loyal to his CEOs, and they are loyal in return…Each CEO is expected to manage his or her enterprise as if it were not part of a larger organisation…Outside of a simple monthly financial report, there are no required reports, meetings or phone calls and no need to consolidate job functions…No time is spent on the ongoing valuation of the enterprise, earnings forecasts or media relations.” – Robert P.Miles in “The Warren Buffett CEO – Secrets from the Berkshire Hathaway Managers” (2001)</em></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Neither a liar, nor a hero. So what should a CEO be?</strong>\r\n\r\nSince our previous two pieces have been about how we tend to get deluded by heroic leaders and especially by those who lie, several of you have asked us what qualities do we expect a CEO to have. In a low trust society like India, it is obviously untenable for the CEO to a liar but what are the positive qualities that investors should expect \r\n\r\nA good place to start understanding the characteristics of an effective CEO is the late Peter Drucker’s work. Drucker lived in an era where market for management gurus wasn’t as crowded as it is today. So he could write about the art of management in a rational, measured manner. In contrast, modern day gurus need to write “Hardy Boys” style case studies/books for people who go to business school.\r\n\r\nIn his 1967 classic “The Effective Executive” (a book which has never gone out print) Drucker identifies the behavioural traits required of an effective CEO:\r\n\r\n<em>“An effective executive does not need to be a leader in the sense that the term is now most commonly used…some of the best…CEOs I have worked with over a 65- year old consulting career were not stereotypical leaders. They were all over the map in terms of their personalities, attitudes, values, strengths and weaknesses…What made them all effective is that they followed the same eight practices:</em>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li><em>They asked, ‘What needs to be done?’</em></li>	\r\n        <li><em>They asked, ‘What is right for the enterprise?’</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They developed action plans.</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They took responsibility for decisions.</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They took responsibility for communicating</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They were focused on opportunities rather than problems.</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They ran productive meetings.</em></li>\r\n	<li><em>They thought and said “we” rather than “I”.</em></li>\r\n\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<em>The first two practices gave them the knowledge they needed. The next four helped them convert this knowledge into effective action. The last two ensured that the whole organisation felt responsible and accountable.”</em>\r\n\r\nTaking a cue from Drucker, we have sought to list the most desirable traits in a CEO.\r\n\r\n<strong>The six qualities of an effective CEO</strong>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li><strong>Relevant experience:</strong> Running a listed company in a country with weak institutions like India is a demanding job. As stewards of our clients’ monies, we have to assess that the man or woman in charge has credible, relevant experience of having managed such an enterprise before. If the CEO happens to be the promoter’s son or daughter, we check whether he/she has been groomed for the job properly as opposed to being parachuted into the Boardroom by dint of his/her DNA.</li>\r\n	<li><strong>Awake & alive to commercial realities:</strong> Paying attention to the latest fads in Finance or trends in Management appears to be a futile activity. An effective CEO instead keeps his ear close to the ground to assess: (a) changes in the cost structure of the industry; (b) changes to the relevant market size either due to customers’ tastes changing or due to macroeconomic factors; and (c) innovation in the product/service itself or innovation in the process used to bring the product to the market. CEOs who are good at this tend to be naturally inquisitive and that in turn makes them voracious readers.</li>\r\n	<li><strong>Decentralised authority:</strong> No CEO can have all the skillsets to manage the whole firm even if the firm is a small company. If she is good at Marketing & Business Development then we would expect her to centralise authority for that specific domain whilst decentralising authority for HR, Finance and Operations. If she has formerly been the CFO and wants to continue exerting control on that function then we would expect her to decentralise authority for Marketing & Business Development to a capable lieutenant. What we want to avoid are companies where the CEO is the all singing, all dancing superman with disempowered underlings reporting into him.</li>\r\n	<li><strong>Rational capital allocation:</strong> Whilst assessing a firm’s capital allocation track record is an important job for us, we believe it is even more important to assess the process via which a company allocates monies to projects/ventures. Indeed the most useful part of meeting a CEO is the discussion around this subject – we ask her to lay out the business case for the Rs 100 crore investment that has been commissioned in south India; we ask her what the IRR for the project is; when the project is expected to hit cashflow breakeven; what will be the impact of the project on the firm’s ROCE. We have heard CEOs say that they “forgotten the IRR” or that “the project will breakeven in about 3-4 years”. Those sorts of answers worry us</li>\r\n	<li><strong>Integrity:</strong> Whilst it is unrealistic to expect CEOs to be paragons of virtue, what the CEO has to have is the moral integrity to set the right example for her managers. The CEO of a textile company with a 5% PAT margin who visits the factory in a new BMW 7-Series will find it difficult to carry her team with him. On the other hand, the CEO of a jewellery company with 45% ROCE and a three-year old Honda Accord is more likely to be able to set the cultural tone for the firm. The CEO of a smallcap Pharma company who flies Economy is sending a more eloquent message to his Sales executives than the charismatic CEO who waxes lyrical in the Boardroom. The CEO can’t party in London and expect his team to slog it out in a factory in Ludhiana.</li>\r\n	<li><strong>Skin in the game:</strong> In a country where management talent is in short supply, the CEO acts an anchor for the rest of the management team – they are less likely to run away to greener pastures if the CEO is financially committed and locked-into the firm. Promoters of family owned companies are by definition locked-into their companies. Study after study in India shows that family owned companies produce better financial results & superior shareholder returns than companies where there is no promoter. This suggests that hired CEOs should also be incented like promoters! As Warren Buffett discovered in America, the “owner CEO” method is the best way to align the interests of the of the shareholder with those of the manager</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<br/>\r\n\r\nIn short, the effective CEO is an honest, industrious, well informed executive who is aware of her limitations and self-aware enough to understand that her conduct and her incentive structure sets the tone for the rest of the firm. Truth be told, we have not met more than 40 such CEOs in India over the past decade. These 40 companies form the spine of the portfolios that we are building for our clients.\r\n\r\nOur thanks to Nitin Bhasin of Ambit Capital for pointing us towards “The Warren Buffett CEO” by Robert P.Miles.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n\r\n', 'What do we expect from a CEO', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-do-we-expect-from-a-ceo', '', '', '2019-11-22 11:12:47', '2019-11-22 11:12:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=368', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(369, 1, '2018-10-30 14:14:36', '2018-10-30 14:14:36', '<em>Published on: 30 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Sixty years ago Solomon Asch showed that we start believing in nonsense if enough people around us are believers. Social media has amplified this problem manifold and thus become a hazard to HNWs’ portfolios. Cutting oneself off from social media and using simple behavioural rules mitigates this problem to a significant extent.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“These services [social media] are engineered to be addictive – robbing time and attention from activities that more directly support your professional and personal goals…Eventually, if you use these tools enough, you’ll arrive at the state of burned out, hyperdistracted connectivity…The use of network tools can be harmful.” – Cal Newport in ‘Deep Work’ (2016)</em></strong> [Square brackets are ours]\r\n\r\n<strong>Social media = social pressure</strong>\r\nPolish psychologist Solomon Asch conducted a series of groundbreaking experiments in the United States in the early 1950s which redefined our understanding of how peer pressure influences us.\r\n\r\n<img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/blog-img.jpg\" alt=\"\" />\r\n\r\nSuppose you and seven other people are seated in a table in a small room. Everyone seated around the table is shown two cards – see above. The experimenter asks all of you, one at a time, to choose which of the three lines on the right card matches the length of the line on the left card. The task is repeated multiple times with different cards and you are always the final person the room called up to answer.\r\n\r\nHow do you think you would behave if you were involved in this experiment? Would you go along with the majority opinion, or would you \"stick to your guns\" and trust your own eyes (that the correct answer is clearly “C”)?\r\n\r\nJust to make things trickier, on some occasions, the other \"participants\" unanimously choose the incorrect answer. It is clear to you that they are wrong, but they have all given the same answer. Do you feel tempted to go along with the consensus opinion or are you independent enough to have an anti-consensus view?\r\n\r\nWhat Asch found is that when other participants unanimously choose the wrong line, you will often go with the mass opinion. Asch found that <em>“on average, about one third (32%) of the participants who were placed in this situation went along and conformed with the clearly incorrect majority on the critical trials. Over the 12 critical trials, about 75% of participants conformed at least once…”</em> On the other hand, “in the control group, <u>with no pressure to conform, less than 1% of participants gave the wrong answer.</u>”\r\n\r\nAsch showed us the perils of being plugged into consensus thinking generally (via mass media, via friends and family). In order to view issues originally, we first have to pull ourselves away from mainstream thinking. As Asch demonstrated, it is easy to start believing in nonsense (eg. residential real estate is a good investment) just because everyone else believes in it. The fact that social media damages our clarity and independence of thought is now increasingly well accepted thanks to books like <em>“Stand Out of Our Light: Freedom & Resistance in the Attention Economy”</em> by former Google strategist James Williams.\r\n\r\n[The above is an excerpt of a longer piece that my friend, Anupam Gupta, and I have written for The Ken. Click here for the same: XXXXXXXXXXXXX.]\r\n\r\n<strong>Seeking clarity of thought</strong>\r\nQuitting social media is the first step towards developing greater clarity of thought. Three different books - “Deep Work” by Cal Newport, “Focus” by Daniel Goleman, “Peak” by Anders Ericsson & Robert Pool – point in the same direction. These books contend that if you want to come up with simple but powerful insights (useful thumb rules for building great products or a great portfolio) you have to specialise and focus - focus on deliberative practice, focus on reflective thought. Running from meeting to meeting whilst Whatsapping and emailing is unlikely to be a productive way to work in a world where insights are the key source of value and hence wealth.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nDeliberative, reflective thought leads to simple thumb rules akin to a “Lakshman Rekha” i.e. lines in the sand which we do not cross. These play rules forces us to stay within our narrow circle of competence and rely upon the expertise of others for matters outside our circle. To quote, Ben Carlson: <em>“The interesting thing about very intelligent and successful people is that they’re usually the ones who have figured out that making things simple is the correct path to success. Because they understand how things work, they are able to appreciate and utilise simplicity. Those who don’t have a hard time grasping this.”</em> (Source: “A Wealth of Commonsense: Why simplicity trumps complexity in any investment plan” (2015).)\r\n\r\nSince at Marcellus our only area of expertise is analyzing Indian companies and then buying shares in outstanding companies with clean accounts, we have implemented our own Lakshman Rekha wherein:\r\n\r\n<strong>Step 1</strong> is to look for companies which in the preceding ten years have grown their business at a certain rate (say, revenue growth has been at least 10% per annum 3 each year) whilst delivering a certain minimum rate of profitability (say, post-tax Return on Capital Employed of 12%).\r\n\r\n<strong>Step 2</strong> is to ascertain whether buying the sort of stocks thrown up by Step 1 is appropriate for the client. If, for example, the client says that she is not willing to take any of the risks associated with stocks, then we should not apply rule 1 on the client; she might be better off buying government bonds.\r\n\r\n<strong>Step 3</strong> is to implement the rule (from Step 1) for the client with necessary adaptations. So, for example, if the client is an NRI, we have to take Page Industries out of the portfolio even though it satisfies step 1 (NRIs are not allowed to buy Page at present).\r\n\r\n<strong>Step 4</strong> is taking feedback from the client as to whether she’s satisfied with the consistent compounders which we are identifying for her (or whether she would prefer a more speculative form of investing).\r\n\r\nIntelligence and judgement are two very different things. The former is a steady ally. The latter tends to be influenced by prevailing social opinion. By using a rule-bound investment process, we aim to maximise the utility of our grey cells whilst minimising the “noise” arising from the latest fads in the stockmarket.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © *2018* *Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd*, All rights reserved.</em> Saurabh Mukherjea can be reached on Saurabh@marcellus.in\r\n\r\n', 'Social Media, not Fake News, Damages your Portfolio', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'social-media-not-fake-news-damages-your-portfolio', '', '', '2019-11-21 12:14:09', '2019-11-21 12:14:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=369', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(370, 1, '2019-01-22 14:03:24', '2019-01-22 14:03:24', '', 'blog-img', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blog-img', '', '', '2019-01-22 14:03:24', '2019-01-22 14:03:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/blog-img.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(371, 1, '2018-11-07 14:26:17', '2018-11-07 14:26:17', '<em>Published on: 7 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/indian-market.jpg\" alt=\"Indian market\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>No other large stockmarket is as overwhelmingly macro driven as India’s. Arguably, this is because of the high cost of factors of production and the influence of the Indian state in every aspect of business life. To make money in India, investors need to understand the macro as much as company- specific fundamentals.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“In the late 1990s Rupert Murdoch visited India to explore launching satellite and cable joint-venture operations…After meeting all the government ministers in New Delhi, he flew to Mumbai…to meet Dhirubhai Ambani…Ambani asked Murdoch who he had met in Delhi. Murdoch said that he had met the PM, the Finance Minister and others. ‘Ah, you’ve met all the right people, said Ambani, ‘but if you want to get anywhere in India you must meet all the wrong people.’ By this he meant the corrupt politicians….”</em> – Edward Luce in ‘In spite of the Gods: the Strange Rise of Modern India’ (2006)</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Our rigorous data crunch singles out India</strong>\r\nUsing quarterly data for the last 18 years, we used regression analysis to understand the impact of three macro variable (exchange rates (YoY change), GDP growth and interest rates) on stock prices. Our crunch shows that 60% of the variability in stock prices in India is driven by these macro factors. In contrast, in the two biggest stockmarkets in the world – USA and Japan – the corresponding figures are 34% and 35% respectively, implying that in these markets company-specific factors are responsible for two-thirds of shareholder returns.\r\n\r\nIn the largest Emerging Market, China, macro factors explain only 25% of the variability in share prices. The only Emerging Market which is comparable to India is Brazil where 53% of the variability in share prices is driven by macro factors. But this is to be expected for Brazil is primarily a commodity dependent economy.\r\n\r\n<strong>So why does the Indian stockmarket stand out in its dependence on macro?</strong>\r\n\r\nWe can think of three good reasons why stock prices in India are primarily dependant on macro factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>India is still fundamentally a feudal society with our politicians being the kings. As a result, most sectors are still heavily regulated by the Centre, the State and by local government eg. to start a hotel in Mumbai one needs almost 60 clearances from various layers of Government. A case study currently playing out in front of us which demonstrates nicely why macro dominates in India is the NBFC crisis – when the NBFCs realised that they will struggle to refinance their Commercial Papers they, as a group, ran straight to New Delhi which responded with a majestic show of power. The UPA Government too was a masterly exponent of political patronage – read this story for an example:<a href=\"https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20120123-vedanta-anil-agarwal-p-chidambaram-flip-flop-sesa-goa-756976-2012-01-14\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20120123-vedanta-anil-agarwal-p-chidambaram-flip-flop-sesa-goa-756976-2012-01-14</a>\r\n .</li>\r\n 	<li>Factors of production are much more expensive in India compared to other large economies. For almost the entire period under consideration (2001-18), the cost of borrowing for SMEs in India has been well in excess of 11%. In contrast, in economies like China, Japan and USA, SMEs borrow at rates well below 5%. Minimum wages in India are 3x that in Bangladesh (and this inspite of the fact that Bangladesh has healthier, more literate workers). Click here for an interesting post on this subject by an Indian businessman<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/13/why-is-manufacturing-more-expensive-in-india-than-in-china/#7cbcf3ba6301\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/13/why-is-manufacturing-more-expensive-in-india-than-in-china/#7cbcf3ba6301</a>\r\n .</li>\r\n 	<li>If we could segment the Indian stockmarket in South vs North, it is highly likely that in the South we would see company-specific factors being more important than the North. The North of India (specifically the area between the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders) is an economic disaster without parallel in the post-World War II era. Per capita income there is less than half that of the South. Female labour force participation there is lower than in Pakistan and Afghanistan. On human development indicators, North India is on par only with war torn African countries. If you exclude the megapolis around Delhi, in North India it does not make sense to even talk about company-specific factors.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIf you are managing money in India, you have to be able to understand the macroeconomy. If you can’t understand where the cost of funding or the exchange rate will go in India, you will have a tough time managing an Indian equities portfolio no matter how good your stock selection skills are.\r\n\r\nSecondly, because the macro is tough in India, very few companies are able to outperform over extended periods of time. If, for example, you ran a data crunch on the 1990s and look for companies who over that decade grew revenues each year by at least double digits alongside at least 12% post-tax ROCE, you find only 5 companies - NIIT, Cipla, Hero Moto, Swaraj Engines and HDFC. The good news is that if you purchased these stocks in 2000, by 2010 your portfolio would be up almost 10x. A similar data crunch in 2018 would give you 12 companies. Companies who survive the vicissitudes of India’s macro are world class and you profit from backing these stocks.\r\n\r\nThirdly, if life does get incrementally easier for SMEs going forward (India’s upward movement in World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ is encouraging on this front) and if cost of funding does fall for SMEs going forward (again, the past decade has been encouraging on this front) then the investment paradigm will change in India. One could then look to buy top quality smallcap companies and stay invested with them over extended periods (much like the young Warren Buffett did in post-World War II America)\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'The Indian Stockmarket is Unique. Here is the Data.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-indian-stockmarket-is-unique-here-is-the-data', '', '', '2019-11-21 12:07:07', '2019-11-21 12:07:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=371', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(372, 1, '2019-01-22 14:19:15', '2019-01-22 14:19:15', '', 'indian-market', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'indian-market', '', '', '2019-01-22 14:19:15', '2019-01-22 14:19:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/indian-market.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(373, 1, '2018-11-11 14:41:16', '2018-11-11 14:41:16', '<em>Published on: 11 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>The success of non-establishment figures in reshaping the investment landscape in America over the past 40 years gives India a useful template. The outsiders have already made their mark in the VC and PE space in India. Now such thinkers seem likely to make their mark in the public market as the traditional mutual fund format runs struggles to generate alpha.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“The successful iconoclast learns to see things for what they are and is not influenced by other people’s opinions. He keeps his amygdala [the fear centre of the brain] in check and doesn’t let fear rule his decisions. And he expertly navigates the complicated waters of social networking so that people eventually come to see things the way he does.”</em> – Gregory Berns in ‘Iconoclast: a Neuroscientist Reveals How to Think Differently’ (2010)</strong> [square brackets are ours]\r\n\r\n<strong>Outsiders – especially Jewish ones - have excelled on Wall Street…</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>George Soros</strong> was born in Budapest, survived Nazi Germany-occupied Hungary and immigrated to England in 1947 after Hungary was occupied by Soviet troops. After finishing his education in England, Soros migrated again, this time to the USA. \r\n\r\n<strong>Michael Steinhardt</strong> was born to a Jewish family in New York. The son of Sol Frank Steinhardt, a compulsive high-stakes gambler, New York\'s leading buyer of stolen jewellery, and a convicted felon who was sentenced to jail for ten years for buying & selling stolen jewellery. \r\n\r\n<strong>Carl Icahn</strong> was raised in a Jewish family in Far Rockaway, a suburb of New York City, which thanks to the 2-hour commute to Manhattan has some of the lowest rents in the City. Icahn attended the local high school. His father was substitute teacher. His mother also worked as a schoolteacher.\r\n\r\nAll three men rose from humble origins, got themselves an elite education (Soros at the London School of Economics, Steinhardt at Wharton and Icahn at Princeton) and then broke into the White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP) dominated investment elite in America to become amongst the most successful investors of their generation. All three men pioneered new forms of investing, very distinct from the non- confrontational mutual fund format practiced by the WASPs\r\n\r\nSoros pioneered the concept of a macro hedge fund which, amongst other epic adventures, famously broke the British pound in 1992. Steinhardt was amongst the earliest exponents of the multi-asset long-short hedge fund which charged fixed fees of 2% & performance fees of 20%. In 2014, Bloomberg named him as “Wall Street’s Greatest Trader”. As the Chairman of Wisdomtree, Steinhardt pioneered the introduction of ETFs in Emerging Markets. Carl Icahn pioneered activist investing i.e. ask underperforming CEOs to perform and if they can’t do so, turf them out. In an epic 60 year career, Icahn has unseated the CEOs at some of America’s best known 2 companies (including Time Warner, TransWorld Airlines, Revlon and Marvel) and earned tens of billions of dollars in the process.\r\n\r\n<strong>…and there “Outsider” tag has been central to their success</strong>\r\n\r\nAt a practical level, it is relatively easy to see why someone who does not belong to the establishment will be able to pioneer a form of investing which takes on the establishment. If you belong to the same social club or community as the CEO of a prominent company, you are unlikely to turn the screws on him in public and then oust him if he does not deliver. If you went to college with the British establishment, you are unlikely to consider running down the Pound. Put simply, an outsider has simply less vested in supporting people or institutions who validate the status quo.\r\n\r\nIn addition, as the quote at the beginning of the piece says outsiders or iconoclasts also have a different mental make-up. In Ray Dalio’s words <em>“The number one principle says that you must think for yourself.”</em> The outsiders are independent thinkers – both curious and non-conformist at the same time and happy to <em>“act in the face of risk because their fear of not succeeding exceeds their fear of failing…the greatest shapers don’t stop at introducing originality in the world. They create cultures that unleash originality in others.”</em> (Source: Adam Grant in ‘Originals: How Non-conformists Change the World’)\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nAs the asset management industry in India moves beyond the traditional mutual fund format (where delivering alpha has become a challenge), Indians with more unconventional backgrounds will enter the investment arena and pioneer new styles of investing. Already, we can see that the pioneering efforts in the VC and PIPE (private investment in public equity) segments have occurred in Indian investment houses not based in Mumbai.\r\n\r\nMore unconventional styles of investing will not only shake up things for the traditionally dominant mutual fund houses but they will also require the intermediaries – who take investment products to HNWs – to see the world through a new lens. Out of the window will go portfolios with 50+ holdings and annual churn in excess of 30%. Into the arena will come tighter portfolios with low churn which gives the fund manager no place to hide. Out of the window will go juicy fixed fees which fund expensive overheads in central Mumbai. Into the mainstream will come fee structures where the investor and the fund manager share the upside.\r\n\r\nIt took a full generation (the thirty years to 2010) in America for the mutual fund to be gradually replaced by low cost tracker funds (as the mass market product) and by hedge funds and Private Equity (as the products for the elites). The transition will happen sooner in India as both the Indian regulator and intermediaries have seen how the story panned out in the West. But what is clear is that in this transition it is the outsiders – rather than the established elite – who will bring the fresh ideas to the table. As Adam Grant says in his bestselling book ‘Originals: how Non-conformists Change the World’ (2016): <em>“Ultimately, the people who choose to champion originality are the ones who propel us forward…their inner experiences are not any different from our own. They feel the same fear, the same doubt as the rest of us. 3 What sets them apart is that they take action anyway. They know in their hearts that failing would yield less regret than failing to try.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>\r\n\r\n', 'The role of Outsiders in investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-role-of-outsiders-in-investing', '', '', '2019-11-20 07:29:37', '2019-11-20 07:29:37', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=373', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(374, 1, '2018-11-19 14:53:15', '2018-11-19 14:53:15', '<em>Published on: 19 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>The combination of a rising fiscal deficit &amp; tighter monetary policy in the US is pushing the world’s risk free rate upwards thus reversing a 40-year trend of money become ever cheaper. Alongside adverse developments in global trade and politics, this could change the way we think about risk-reward tradeoffs.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“There are those who are persuaded that some new price-enhancing circumstance is in control, and they expect the market to stay up and go up, perhaps indefinitely…Then there are those, superficially more astute and generally fewer in number, who perceive or believe themselves to perceive the speculative mood of the moment. They are in to ride the upward wave; their particular genius, they are convinced, will allow them to get out before the speculation runs its course. They will get the maximum reward from the increase as it continues; they will be out before the eventual fall…built into this situation is the eventual and inevitable fall. Built in also is the circumstance that it cannot come gently or gradually. When it comes, it bears the grim face of disaster. That is because both of the groups of participants in the speculative situation are programmed for sudden efforts at escape…” – John Kenneth Galbraith in “A Short History of Financial Euphoria”</em> (1990)</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/capital-market-line.jpg\" alt=\"Capital Market Line\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>A 40-year trend in the world’s risk free rate….</strong>\r\n\r\nIn September 1981, the US 10 year Government bond yield hit a post-World War II high of 15.4%. In September 2016, it touched an a 50-year low of 1.6%. This epic downward trend in the world’s risk free rate has defined most of our careers. Had it not been for this downward trend, it is doubtful whether Emerging Market equities or Private Equity or Real Estate for that matter would be as big an asset class today as it has become. In fact, in the broader scheme of things, the “financialisation” of the global economy which has taken place in our lifetime has been underpinned by this epic bull run US Government bonds. (To see the 50-year trend in the world’s risk free rate, click here: <a href=\"https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate- yield-chart)</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>…seems to have been reversed</strong>\r\n\r\nFrom 1.6% in August 2016, the US 10-year Government bond yield has nearly doubled to 3.1% in mid-November 2018. Ex-post, it is easy to attribute this to the Fed’s strategy of ending QE (which happened a year ago) and hiking interest rates (over the last two years, the Fed has hiked the Fed Funds rate by 200bps). However, if one looks forward, there is good reason to believe that the Fed Funds rate and hence the US 10-year bond yield, will continue rising at a similar rate as: (a) the US job market – already overheated – starts showing pronounced wage inflation; (b) China – the world’s largest buyer of US Government bonds (after the Fed) – reduces its purchases; and (c) the US budget deficit rises courtesy Trump’s tax cuts – the US budget deficit will be nearly $1 trillion in FY19, up 18% YOY\r\n\r\nThere is another way to view the rise in the world’s risk free rate – as a reflection of rising risk in the financial system. The perception that risk is rising could be fuelled by: (a) the fraying of the implicit understanding in the West that free trade between countries is a good thing; (b) the increasingly entrenched belief that the free market left to itself will result in a small group of people becoming super wealthy everybody else is left behind; and (c) the rising popularity of autocratic leaders in major economies across the world and implications it has for norms which define liberal democratic politics.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nWhatever be the reasons, the odds are in favour of the US 10-year bond yield continuing to rise over the next few years. If the US 10-year bond yield returns to the level of around 5% (which is where it was in 2007, before the Lehman-crisis struck) what effects could it have an India? There are five important effects to consider:\r\n\r\n<ul>	<li>If all we get is a rise in the risk free rate in the US then all we should get in India is India’s 10-year risk free rate rising by a similar amount (so India’s 10- year bond yield, currently at around 7-8%, should end up at around 9-10%, which is where it was before the NDA came to power). That implies a parallel shift upwards of the Capital Markets Line (CML) which is the risk-return trade- off that all of us use whilst weighing up investments. If, on the other hand, risk appetite also wanes (say, because of a breakdown in global trade), then the CML tilts upwards as shown in the chart at the beginning of the note.</li>\r\n	<li>It follows from the above that not only will our discount rates go up (and thus exert downward pressure on asset prices), the riskier the asset, the sharper the drop in asset prices. Therefore, prices of Private Equity funded assets should fall more than, say, prices of large cap stocks.</li>\r\n	<li>Another way of putting this is the premium that investors will seek for taking extra risk looks likely to rise. So, for example, until a year ago, investors seemed happy to invest in small cap stocks if the returns were a third higher than large caps. Going forward the same investors might want small caps to give returns 50% higher than large caps</li>\r\n	<li>This in turn implies that assets which promise safety/certainty eg. premium commercial real estate in Mumbai, well run companies with strong ROCEs, predictable cashflows and formidable moats might actually get repriced upwards as investors seek certainty. Continuing with this line of thought, one ends up feeling bullish about gold.</li>\r\n	<li>Finally, the 40-year downward trend in the US 10-year bond yield has famously enriched many Finance professionals the world over. The manager of a large privately run hospital in Mumbai will earn a fraction of what a manager of a large equity mutual fund in Mumbai will earn. The nurse in the same hospital will earn a fraction of what a junior sellside analyst earns. If 2016 was “peak Finance” then the future earnings of Finance professionals will face a reality check.</li></ul>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n', 'Have we hit Peak Finance', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'have-we-hit-peak-finance', '', '', '2019-11-22 10:29:06', '2019-11-22 10:29:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=374', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(375, 1, '2019-01-22 14:47:45', '2019-01-22 14:47:45', '', 'capital-market-line', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'capital-market-line', '', '', '2019-01-22 14:47:45', '2019-01-22 14:47:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/capital-market-line.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(377, 1, '2018-12-09 06:24:34', '2018-12-09 06:24:34', '<em>Published on: 9 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-378\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/who-is-marcellus-202x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"202\" height=\"300\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>We live in era defined by majoritarianism and social-media driven consensus. In such an age we seek inspiration from the one of the greatest warriors of the 20 th Century, Cassius Marcellus Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“I know where I am going and I know the truth and I don’t have to be what you want me to be. I am free to be what I want.”</em>– <strong>Muhammad Ali</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Who is Marcellus?</strong>\r\n\r\nMarcellus means “little warrior” in Latin but for many of us in India the only Marcellus we know is Cassius Marcellus Clay better known as Muhammad Ali. This man’s career, his beliefs and his actions inside and outside the boxing ring make him an inspiration for middle class professionals like us who are trying to build something greater than ourselves with modest resources. This great boxer’s triumphs were more mental than physical and it is therefore poignant that the only fight he really lost was to Parkinson’s, a degenerative disorder which attacks the mind.\r\n\r\n<strong>The warrior and his legendary accomplishments</strong>\r\n\r\nThe broad trajectory of Muhammad Ali’s life is well known and memorably captured in David Remnick’s Pullitzer Prize winning 1999 biography <em>“King of the World: Muhammad Ali and the Rise of an American Hero”</em> (later made into a movie).\r\n\r\nCassius Marcellus Clay Junior was born in 1942 in the racially segregated south of the United States in Louisville, Kentucky, and started training as an amateur boxer at the age of 12. In 1960, he won Gold at the Rome Olympics as a light heavyweight. He turned professional immediately and converted to Islam. Three years later, in 1964, in what remains one of the biggest upsets in boxing and one of the greatest fights ever seen, he beat Sonny Liston – a fearsomely powerful boxer - to become the world champion for the first time. <em>“Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. Rumble, young man, rumble,”</em> Cassius Clay said in 1964, before his fight with Sonny Liston.\r\n\r\nAfter becoming world champion, Clay could have played the role of a well behaved, good looking black man who curries favour with the establishment in return for sponsorship. Instead, he changed his name to “Muhammad Ali” to leave behind his “slave name” and more importantly align himself to the burgeoning Civil Rights movement in America.\r\n\r\nThen in 1966, Ali refused to be drafted into the US military, citing his religious beliefs, and opposition to the American involvement in Vietnam. Ali was arrested by the US authorities, found guilty of draft evasion and stripped of his titles by the World Boxing Federation. Ali took the authorities to the Supreme Court which overturned his conviction in 1971.\r\n\r\nWhat followed was equally epic. Ali’s records through the 1970s of beating 21 boxers for the world heavyweight title (shared with Joe “Black Bomber” Louis), as well as winning 14 unified title bouts (shared with former welterweight champion José Napoles), were unbeaten for 35 years. Muhammad Ali is the only boxer to be named The Ring magazine “Fighter of the Year” six times. Ali was ranked as the greatest athlete of the 20th century by Sports Illustrated and the Sports Personality of the Century by the BBC.\r\n\r\nTwo of Ali’s title fights from the 1970s have been turned into books and movies: the 1974 “Rumble in the Jungle” with the until then undefeated George Foreman (a fight which Ali won but got beaten so badly that he urinated blood for two days thereafter) and the 1975 “Thriller in Manilla” with Joe Frazier (the contest\'s name is derived from Ali\'s rhyming boast that the fight would be <em>“a killa and a thrilla and a chilla, when I get that gorilla in Manila\")</em>.\r\n\r\n<strong>The legacy</strong>\r\n\r\nLong before he became a legend, Ali stood up for causes he believed in knowing full well that he would have to pay a price. <em>“When he refused to fight in Vietnam, saying, \"I have no quarrel with the Vietcong\", it was 1966, two years before the first sizeable protests [regarding the Vietnam War]…When he declared his membership of the Nation of Islam [in 1961], he wasn\'t just denounced by tattooed bikers and cross- eyed Texans. His album was removed from the shops by Columbia, and the boxing authorities sought to strip him of his title.” (Source:<a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-not-just-in-the-ring-1132296.html\">https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-notjust-in-the-ring-1132296.html</a>)</em> [brackets are ours]\r\n\r\nFor refusing to fight in Vietnam, Ali lost five years at the peak of his career. That did not deter him from training hard and going back into the ring in 1972. Well past his peak, Ali repeatedly took on younger, more powerful fighters in high profile title fights, soaked their punches, tired them out and then pulverised them. Both George Foreman (in 1974) and Joe Frazier (in 1975) lost to a man who was mentally stronger than them although they were physically much stronger. If you watch the documentary <em>“When We Were Kings”</em> of the 1974 Ali vs Foreman fight, you will see that Foreman was so powerful that each time he hit the 100 pound punching bag, the trainer holding the bag would wince\r\n\r\nJust as important as the cerebral fighting was the generosity that Ali showed in reaching to the underprivileged in Africa and Asia. Well before philanthropy became fashionable, Ali started distributing his fortune to lepers in Asia, Palestinian refugees in the Middle East and Parkinson’s victims the world over. By the time Ali died, he had given away much of his fortune to philanthropic causes.\r\n\r\n<strong>The lessons from the legend</strong>\r\n\r\nEven for those of us who might only have a fraction of the courage of this African- American legend, his willingness to stand up for his beliefs is an inspiration. Ali was a was a conscientious objector and gave up virtually everything – his career, his title, most of his income – to stand up for what he believed in, namely, the refusal to kill innocent people from another country just because his Government demanded that he do so. Whilst our challenges might be more prosaic – hinging as they do around our clients, our families and our beliefs around how money should be managed – in our willingness to put everything on the line, we seek to learn from the example set by this fighter\r\n\r\nHowever, Ali’s life also has a resonance for us beyond the narrow confines of our jobs. In a world where majorities are intent upon using the might of the state to assert their dominance on minorities, Ali remains an inspiration. In fact, the African- American athletes who are standing upto Donald Trump at present are taking a leaf out of Ali’s playbook. Mark Steel of The Independent, in an article celebrating Ali being voted “sports personality of the century” wrote: <em>“His persona, his fighting ability and his beliefs dictated each other\'s technique. He argued as he boxed, allowing his opponents to exhaust themselves while responding with the occasional perfectly aimed jab before demolishing them in a flawless flurry that was too fast for the eye to follow. And his principles fashioned his boxing. \"Stand up white America,\" he roared at the prostrate Floyd Patterson, after toppling the man who white America had hoped would win back the title from the Nation of Islam.”</em> (Source: <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-not-just-in-the-ring-1132296.html\">https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-notjust-in-the-ring-1132296.html</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“What I suffered physically was worth what I’ve accomplished in life. A man who is not courageous enough to take risks will never accomplish anything in life,” Ali said at a news conference in 1984.\r\nMuhammad Ali died on 30 th June 2016. A friend said: “Muhammad had continued to say he was not afraid of death.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Who is Marcellus and why does he matter', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'who-is-marcellus-and-why-does-he-matter', '', '', '2019-11-25 04:58:09', '2019-11-25 04:58:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=377', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(378, 1, '2019-01-23 06:02:58', '2019-01-23 06:02:58', '', 'who-is-marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'who-is-marcellus', '', '', '2019-01-23 06:04:07', '2019-01-23 06:04:07', '', 377, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/who-is-marcellus.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(379, 1, '2018-10-26 06:56:55', '2018-10-26 06:56:55', '<em>Published on: 26 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<u>Over the last ten years macro factors drove the majority of stock returns in India thus reducing the importance of investors’ skill/judgement. The end of QE is likely to reduce overall market</u> returns but the outperformance of skilful fund managers will almost certainly be higher over the next ten years than it has been over the previous ten years.\r\n\r\n<u>\"Most of the great investors I’ve known over the years have had an exceptional sense for how cycles work in general and where we stand in the current one. That sense permits them to do a superior job of positioning portfolios for what lies ahead….The most important thing to note is that the maximum psychology, maximum availability of credit, maximum price, maximum potential return…are all reached at the same time…these extremes coincide with the last paroxysm of buying..” – Howard Marks in ‘Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side’ (2018) </u>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Macro factors are the dominant driver of stock price changes in India</u></strong>\r\n\r\nTo what extent are stock returns driven by overall macroeconomic conditions (represented by “beta” in Finance jargon) and to what are they driven by company specific factors ( “alpha” in Finance jargon)? The answer matters because you don’t need to pay a fund manager a salary if the primary driver of stock returns are macroeconomic conditions – a tracker fund can do the job just as well and at much lower cost [Nifty tracker fund fees are 10bps versus 200bps for an actively managed large cap mutual fund].\r\n\r\nIf, on the other hand, the main driver of stock returns are company specific factors you need to pay someone to assess the company specific info either using oldfashioned qualitative methods or quantitative methods or a mixture of both.\r\n\r\nMy colleagues at Marcellus have found an effective way to measure the relative importance of these two forces – beta (i.e. macroeconomic factors) and alpha (i.e. company specific factors). Using YOY stock returns in India for the past 10 years (i.e. from June 2008 to June 2018) we found that:\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>A remarkable 62% of the Sensex’s annualised returns were driven by macro factors (which means company-specific factors drive only 38% of the stock returns in India).</li>\r\n	<li>63% of the returns of the largest sector in the market, Bankex, was driven by macro factors</li>\r\n	<li>Even for a market leading bank, like HDFC Bank, 64% of the returns was driven by macro factors</li>\r\n	<li>At the other end of the scale was the FMCG sector where a mere 29% of the returns were driven by macro factor (implying that company-specific factors drive over 70% of the returns generated by this sector).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nThe dominance of the macro factors in driving the Sensex’s returns also helps explain why in recent years large cap Indian mutual funds have found it increasingly difficult to deliver returns in excess of the index (see: <a href=\"http://The dominance of the macro factors in driving the Sensex’s returns also helps explain why in recent years large cap Indian mutual funds have found it increasingly difficult to deliver returns in excess of the index (see: <a href=\"<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"><a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong><em>Investing before Lehman was a different ball game</em></strong>\r\n\r\nThere was a time when the majority of share price returns in India were driven by company-specific factors. In fact, if you take the five years prior to Lehman Brothers going bust (i.e. the period from Sept 2003):\r\n\r\n<ul>	<li>A mere 38% of the Sensex’s returns were driven by macro factors i.e. almost the opposite of what we see in the past ten years</li>\r\n	<li>Just 37% of the returns of the largest sector in the market, Bankex, was driven by macro factors – again the opposite of what we see in the past ten years.</li>\r\n	<li>For a market leading bank, like HDFC Bank, just 24% of the returns was driven by macro factors i.e. HDFC Bank’s management team’s skills were the main drivers of their hareholders’ returns</li>\r\n	<li>At the other end of the scale was the FMCG sector where a mere 15% of the returns were driven by macro factors.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>QE changed the nature of investing</u></strong>\r\nSo why did the paradigm shift after Sept 2008? We think the answer lies in the onslaught of liquidity created by QE By the time QE peaked in 2015, the Western central banks’ balance sheets were in excess of $10 trillion i.e. well in excess of 20% of the GDP of these economies. The global financial system had no rational way to allocate so much capital in such a short span of time – so it just banged the share prices of everything into the stratosphere.\r\n\r\nThanks to QE, we have seen both in America and in India crazy valuations being associated with businesses which simply could not rationally justify them eg. Snapchat’s IPO at a valuation of $24 billion with not a cent of profitability, Twitter’s IPO at a valuation of $14 billion in similar (lossmaking) circumstances, Bandhan Bank’s market cap until 3 months ago of $12 billion with no track record of managing a liability franchise, or Vakrangee’s peak market cap of nearly $7 bn in Jan 2018. (as the tide of global liquidity ebbs, these market caps are correcting at a rapid rate.)\r\n\r\n<strong><em>The end of QE will give a new lease of life to old fashioned stock pickingskilful fund managers</em></strong>\r\nThe Fed announced the end of QE in September 2017. For the first time in ten years, the US 10-year bond yield, at 325bps, is now above the rate of inflation. If this trend of Western central banks tightening monetary policy continues then not only will the remarkable post Lehman rally in equities come to an end – the S&P500 has compounded at a remarkable 14% per annum in $ USD terms since 1 March 2009 but the end of this epic bull run will also bring a silver lining – stock-specific factors seem likely to stage a comeback in terms of their importance in driving share price returns.\r\n\r\nNow, Fund managers who have the industry and the intellect to identify and assess company-specific factors will once again significantly outperform the broader market.\r\n\r\nThe overall market might give lower returns in such a world compared to the (QE fuelled ) world we have seen March 2009 but the outperformance of skilful fund managers will almost certainly be higher over the next ten years than it has been over the previous ten years. <u>Investing in stocks over the past ten years was a lot like the Indian team batting on a flat track in Rajkot – every batsman was playing like Virat Kohli. Over the next few years, investing in India will become like batting on a seaming track in Headingley against Jimmy Anderson – the Virat’s in the investment community will stand head & shoulders above everybody else.</u>\r\n\r\n\r\n', 'The end of QE and fund management', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-end-of-qe-and-fund-management', '', '', '2019-11-20 06:38:39', '2019-11-20 06:38:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=379', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(380, 1, '2019-01-23 06:59:00', '2019-01-23 06:59:00', '<u>Over the last ten years macro factors drove the majority of stock returns in India thus reducing the importance of investors’ skill/judgement. The end of QE is likely to reduce overall market</u> returns but the outperformance of skilful fund managers will almost certainly be higher over the next ten years than it has been over the previous ten years.\n\n<u>\"Most of the great investors I’ve known over the years have had an exceptional sense for how cycles work in general and where we stand in the current one. That sense permits them to do a superior job of positioning portfolios for what lies ahead….The most important thing to note is that the maximum psychology, maximum availability of credit, maximum price, maximum potential return…are all reached at the same time…these extremes coincide with the last paroxysm of buying..” – Howard Marks in ‘Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side’ (2018) </u>\n\n<strong><u>Macro factors are the dominant driver of stock price changes in India</u></strong>\n\nTo what extent are stock returns driven by overall macroeconomic conditions (represented by “beta” in Finance jargon) and to what are they driven by company specific factors ( “alpha” in Finance jargon)? The answer matters because you don’t need to pay a fund manager a salary if the primary driver of stock returns are macroeconomic conditions – a tracker fund can do the job just as well and at much lower cost [Nifty tracker fund fees are 10bps versus 200bps for an actively managed large cap mutual fund].\n\nIf, on the other hand, the main driver of stock returns are company specific factors you need to pay someone to assess the company specific info either using oldfashioned qualitative methods or quantitative methods or a mixture of both.\n\nMy colleagues at Marcellus have found an effective way to measure the relative importance of these two forces – beta (i.e. macroeconomic factors) and alpha (i.e. company specific factors). Using YOY stock returns in India for the past 10 years (i.e. from June 2008 to June 2018) we found that:\n\n<ul>\n	<li>A remarkable 62% of the Sensex’s annualised returns were driven by macro factors (which means company-specific factors drive only 38% of the stock returns in India).</li>\n	<li>63% of the returns of the largest sector in the market, Bankex, was driven by macro factors</li>\n	<li>Even for a market leading bank, like HDFC Bank, 64% of the returns was driven by macro factors</li>\n	<li>At the other end of the scale was the FMCG sector where a mere 29% of the returns were driven by macro factor (implying that company-specific factors drive over 70% of the returns generated by this sector).</li>\n</ul>\n\nThe dominance of the macro factors in driving the Sensex’s returns also helps explain why in recent years large cap Indian mutual funds have found it increasingly difficult to deliver returns in excess of the index (see: <a href=\"http://The dominance of the macro factors in driving the Sensex’s returns also helps explain why in recent years large cap Indian mutual funds have found it increasingly difficult to deliver returns in excess of the index (see: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mf/analysis/77-equity-mutual-funds- underperform-their-benchmark/articleshow/65348912.cms)\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/mf/analysis/77-equity-mutual-funds- underperform-their-benchmark/articleshow/65348912.cms</a>)\n\n<strong><em>Investing before Lehman was a different ball game</em></strong>\n\nThere was a time when the majority of share price returns in India were driven by company-specific factors. In fact, if you take the five years prior to Lehman Brothers going bust (i.e. the period from Sept 2003):\n\n<ul>	<li>A mere 38% of the Sensex’s returns were driven by macro factors i.e. almost the opposite of what we see in the past ten years</li>\n	<li>Just 37% of the returns of the largest sector in the market, Bankex, was driven by macro factors – again the opposite of what we see in the past ten years.</li>\n	<li>For a market leading bank, like HDFC Bank, just 24% of the returns was driven by macro factors i.e. HDFC Bank’s management team’s skills were the main drivers of their hareholders’ returns</li>\n	<li>At the other end of the scale was the FMCG sector where a mere 15% of the returns were driven by macro factors.</li>\n</ul>\n\n<strong><em>QE changed the nature of investing</em></strong>\nSo why did the paradigm shift after Sept 2008? We think the answer lies in the onslaught of liquidity created by QE By the time QE peaked in 2015, the Western central banks’ balance sheets were in excess of $10 trillion i.e. well in excess of 20% of the GDP of these economies. The global financial system had no rational way to allocate so much capital in such a short span of time – so it just banged the share prices of everything into the stratosphere.\n\nThanks to QE, we have seen both in America and in India crazy valuations being associated with businesses which simply could not rationally justify them eg. Snapchat’s IPO at a valuation of $24 billion with not a cent of profitability, Twitter’s IPO at a valuation of $14 billion in similar (lossmaking) circumstances, Bandhan Bank’s market cap until 3 months ago of $12 billion with no track record of managing a liability franchise, or Vakrangee’s peak market cap of nearly $7 bn in Jan 2018. (as the tide of global liquidity ebbs, these market caps are correcting at a rapid rate.)\n\n<strong><em>The end of QE will give a new lease of life to old fashioned stock pickingskilful fund managers</em></strong>\nThe Fed announced the end of QE in September 2017. For the first time in ten years, the US 10-year bond yield, at 325bps, is now above the rate of inflation. If this trend of Western central banks tightening monetary policy continues then not only will the remarkable post Lehman rally in equities come to an end – the S&P500 has compounded at a remarkable 14% per annum in $ USD terms since 1 March 2009 but the end of this epic bull run will also bring a silver lining – stock-specific factors seem likely to stage a comeback in terms of their importance in driving share price returns.\n\nNow, Fund managers who have the industry and the intellect to identify and assess company-specific factors will once again significantly outperform the broader market.\n\nThe overall market might give lower returns in such a world compared to the (QE fuelled ) world we have seen March 2009 but the outperformance of skilful fund managers will almost certainly be higher over the next ten years than it has been over the previous ten years. <u>Investing in stocks over the past ten years was a lot like the Indian team batting on a flat track in Rajkot – every batsman was playing like Virat Kohli. Over the next few years, investing in India will become like batting on a seaming track in Headingley against Jimmy Anderson – the Virat’s in the investment community will stand head & shoulders above everybody else.</u>\n\n\n', 'The end of QE and fund management', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '379-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-23 06:59:00', '2019-01-23 06:59:00', '', 379, 'http://marcellus.in/379-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(381, 1, '2018-11-28 07:28:00', '2018-11-28 07:28:00', '<em>Published on: 28 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>There is needless angst in India about EPS growth staying weak even as the economy grows at 7%. Such a phenomenon is actually a good thing for the Indian economy - it highlights a shift to a more competitive, pro-consumer paradigm which sets the stage for efficiency improvements in the economy.\r\n</strong>\r\n<strong>\r\n<em>“…the relationship between earnings per share growth and GDP growth is quite different in the shorter term. If you could accurately predict the next three years of GDP growth, this would be decently helpful for investment purposes as the fastest 20% of growers in the developed world outperform by 2.6% annualized over that three-year period… Why does it work in the short term, but not the long term?…In the shorter term, strong GDP growth is associated with cyclical widening of profit margins, whereas long-term growth does not have a similar impact. Where all this gets a bit more confusing is that it almost certainly isn’t GDP growth per se that is most correlated with EPS growth…”– Ben Inker of GMO in ‘Ditch the Good, Buy the Bad &amp; the Ugly’ (2014) </em></strong>[underlining is ours]\r\n<strong>A decade of weak EPS growth and strong GDP growth</strong>\r\n\r\nThe 12th November 2018 edition of the Business Standard contained an article which said that over the past decade the annual earnings growth of listed Indian companies has been a mere 4.1% whilst nominal GDP growth has been around 12.9% over this period. The Business Standard report alongside a similar article from a foreign brokerage prompted plenty of hand wringing about what has gone wrong in India\r\n\r\n<strong>Competitive Advantage 101 can explain what is going on </strong>\r\n\r\nUsing a relatively simple model of competition, it is possible to understand what has happened in India. In a competitive economy only two types of firms are able to generate healthy profits (defined as ROCE in excess of cost of capital):\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Companies who have sustainable competitive advantages either on the demand side (i.e. they have access to market demand – thanks to product differentiation or branding or customers’ switching cost - that their competitors cannot match) and/or on the supply side (i.e. cost advantages that allow a company to produce and deliver its products or services more cheaply than its competitors). These cost advantages could be due to proprietary technology or due to privileged access to raw materials or due to experience or some combination of these. [Source: “Competition Demystified” by Bruce Greenwald and Judd Kahn] Sustainable competitive advantages of this sort are evident in India in sectors FMCG, Banking, Pharma and light electrical manufacturing.</li>\r\n 	<li>Companies who do not have sustainable competitive advantages but have made themselves highly efficient by squeezing costs relentlessly over a long period of time. You can see this paradigm at work in India in sectors like Cement and Steel where there is very little to distinguish one company’s product from the next</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIt follows therefore that if a firm does not fall into either of these buckets, it is in trouble. Examples abound in India eg. Idea in Telco, Jet Airways in airlines, several NBFCs, several private sector banks who don’t have CASA franchises, lots of construction companies, several cement companies, etc.\r\n\r\nUntil a decade ago these weaker players would keep chugging along due to: (a) soft loans from PSU banks; and (b) implicit gentlemen’s agreements in their sector which would put a floor on prices and therefore on profits. Whilst this would keep the weaker players alive, the Indian consumer/taxpayer was worse off as she would pay higher prices/taxes (which effectively were subsidies to keep the inefficient players alive).\r\n\r\nFor reasons which we don’t fully understand, this paradigm was disrupted around a decade ago and we entered a more competitive era in Indian business wherein weaker firms were either bankrupted or forced to sell out. What we have seen over the past decade is not just weak EPS growth but also a steady decline in the Nifty’s pre-tax ROCE (from 20.5% a decade ago to around 15.5% now). This has happened alongside better products and more competitive pricing for the consumer who has flocked to buy these products thus boosting consumption growth even as capex growth stays muted. The most vivid illustrations of these are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The domestic airline sector where the planes are full, the airports are heaving but no airline makes any money due to to intense competition</li>\r\n 	<li>The domestic taxi market where the streets are full of Ubers and Olas and\r\nconsumers are getting a good deal but neither Uber nor Ola nor their taxi\r\ndrivers make money (defined, again, as ROCE &gt; WACC).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThanks to greater competition, we have transferred the profits of weaker companies into the pockets of the consumers (primarily, middle class consumers; workers at the bottom of the pyramid face a challenge which is discussed further on in this piece).\r\n\r\n<strong>Other than consumer, who are the winners in this uber-competitive paradigm?</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As EPS growth becomes a permanent challenge in a more competitive economy, efficient firms who have built strong moats will continue to trade at high premiums to their peers. We continue to believe that firms who consistently generate double digit revenue growth whilst delivering ROCE&gt;WACC will continue to be attractive stocks to buy and hold.</li>\r\n 	<li>Well managed moated sector leaders like Dr Lal Path Labs and Asian Paints realise that if they hike prices, whilst their profits grow faster, life also becomes easier for their less able rivals. Hence price hikes from market leading companies has become increasingly rare. Similarly, in banking the leading private sector banks are not increasing their lending rates materially even though the cost of 3-month money market paper is up almost 200bps this year. These banks realise that by not hiking their lending rates, they can squeeze the less able lenders out of the game. As this dynamic becomes widespread in India, it becomes easier for the RBI to control CPI inflation and give a positive real rate of return on bank fixed deposits. That in turn should encourage the ongoing “financialisation” of the economy</li>\r\n 	<li>With economic growth being faster than growth in corporate profits, the\r\nfunding for growth initiatives has to – by definition – come from bank loans, private equity and from the capital markets [for the overwhelming majority of companies, retained profits won’t be sufficient to fund capex]. This dynamic should interplay with the previous bullet and bring to the stock and bond\r\nmarket a broader range of Indian companies</li>\r\n 	<li>As weaker companies are driven into the NCLT process, stronger, more\r\nefficient rivals will be able to acquire their capacities at attractive valuations. This will (and is producing) a concentration of economic power hitherto\r\nunseen in India. Whilst many fear that this would ultimately lead to an\r\noligarchy wherein politicians and promoters collude to screw the consumer, as\r\nyet there is no evidence of the same largely because any attempt to gouge\r\nthe consumer is likely to trigger new entry</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAll of this being said, there are three big negatives associated with the new paradigm of competition in India:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As firms seek efficiency, in almost every industry one is seeing a replacement of people with machines/automation. Eg. Maruti’s EPS growth has risen by 15% per annum over the past decade but its headcount has only risen by 10%. HDFC Bank’s EPS growth has risen by 23% per annum over the past decade but its headcount has only risen by 9%. For Indians – blue or white collar- who don’t have jobs, this development spells trouble.</li>\r\n 	<li>Less able firms – many of who are SMEs – are being squeezed relentlessly in a more competitive economy. Increasingly, their response is to either shut shop or to sell out to more efficient rivals who then get rid of the labour and hold on to the revenues.</li>\r\n 	<li>Indian stocks have seen an EPIC re-rating over the past decade as market cap has compounded at 15% whilst EPS has grown at only 4%. During this period, the cost of capital was falling globally courtesy QE. Now that the US 10-year bond yield has doubled from 1.6% in September 2016 (a 50-year low), the P/E multiple of the Indian stockmarket looks increasingly unsustainable.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved </em>', 'Weak EPS growth and strong GDP growth can coexist', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'weak-eps-growth-is-not-a-bad-thing', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:07:32', '2019-11-25 05:07:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=381', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(382, 1, '2018-12-20 08:39:55', '2018-12-20 08:39:55', '<em>Published on: 20 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Memory in all its avatars (perception, projection, intelligence) plays a big role in how we invest. The fragility of our memories (both in the sense of how quickly they fade and in the sense of how susceptible to manipulation they are) suggests that we need to be careful with how we deal with memories.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find the relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.”</em> – <strong>Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” (2011)</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to <a href=\"/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Memory helps us project</strong>\r\n\r\nHenry Molaison suffered his first major epileptic seizure on his fifteen birthday. Thereafter the seizures became more frequent and faced with a future of violent convulsions, Henry underwent surgery which removed the middle part of the temporal lobe on both sides of his brain. The seizures stopped but there was one side effect – Henry could no longer form any new memories. His peculiar state allowed scientists to understand why memory exists in the form it does. More specifically, because Henry could not form any new memories, he was also unable to imagine the future. If you asked Henry “What would it be like to go to the beach tomorrow?”, all he would be able to say is “I can see the colour blue”. (Source: “The Brain: The Story of You” by David Eagleman)\r\n\r\nHenry’s plight suggests that the real purpose of the brain is not to record the past but to allow us to project into the future. To imagine what it would be like to go to Goa in July, for example, my hippocampus pulls together my memories of Goa (from my visits, from what people have told me about Goa, from what I have seen on TV) helps me create an imagined future wherein I am sitting in a beachside shack in Goa with a glass of feni whilst the rains lash the Arabian Sea.\r\n\r\nMy friend, Anupam Gupta, and I have written a piece for The Ken on this subject. You can find it here: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/step-into-the-memory-palace/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/step-into-the-memory-palace/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>Memory helps us perceive</strong>\r\n\r\nWe might see a fellow passenger on a plane or a bus and tell ourselves that “she looks like so and so from college”. This form of “seeing-perceiving-relating to what’s in our memories” is a common routine that all of us go through many times in a day. As Nick Chater says in his book “The Mind is Flat” (2018):\r\n\r\n<em>“The brain interprets one word, face or pattern at a time, but in doing so it simultaneously explores possible links between the current stimulus and a vas array of memories or interpretations of past stimuli…<strong>The resonance between perception and memory must occur ‘in parallel’</strong>…Given our sluggish neurons, matching the current perceptual input with each of our vast repertoire of memory traces one at a time would be unfeasibly slow. And, when interpreting a new stimulus, the brain may have little idea which memories it needs to search – indeed, it seems able to draw on its entire stock of memory traces equally easily. Before the interpretation has been made, the brain can’t know which memories will be relevant – so it has to search them all. Notice that…each new perceptual interpretation is based on memories of past interpretations. <strong>We never see the world ‘with fresh eyes’. Each new interpretation is an amalgam and transformation of past interpretations</strong>…” [Bold font is ours]</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Our memories are fragile and prone to manipulation</strong>\r\n\r\nIt is tempting for us to believe that in a changing world, our memories are the only constant an intellectual support system which holds our identity together – tempting but wrong. Our memories not only fade but they also get coloured by subsequent events. Professor Elizabeth Loftus of the University of California at Irvine demonstrated this using a simple experiment wherein she first showed a group of volunteers a video of two cars colliding with each other. Then she asked some of the volunteers “how fast were the cars moving when they <strong>hit</strong> each other?” and the other the remaining volunteers “how fast were the cars moving when they <strong>smashed into</strong> with each other?” The latter group reported much higher speeds for the cars – just two words “smashed into” were responsible for the latter group of volunteers’ memories being coloured.\r\n\r\nNot only can others colour our memories, we can colour our memories ourselves. For example, a year ago my wife and I had dinner with some friends who looked like a happy suburban couple. A few months later we heard that they were separating from each other. That extra bit of information started colouring my perception of our dinner with the now estranged couple. Wasn’t the wife’s laughter over dessert a touch strained? Wasn’t the husband’s eyes roving a bit more usual?\r\n\r\nAnd that brings us to one of the most mindblowing paradoxes in pscychology – your memories are distinct from your experiences. In other words, what you remember of an event is very different from what you actually experience. A real life episode from Prof. Elizabeth Loftus’ life illustrates this point:\r\n\r\n“…when Elizabeth was a child, her mother had drowned in a swimming pool. Years later, a conversation with a relative brought out an extraordinary fact: that Elizabeth had been the one to find her mother’s body in the pool. That news came as a shock to her; she hadn’t known that, and in fact she didn’t believe it. But, she describes, “I went home from that birthday and I started to think about other things that I did remember – like when the fireman came, they gave me oxygen. Maybe I needed the oxygen ‘cause I was so upset that I found the body?” Soon, she could visualise her mother in the swimming pool.\r\n\r\nBut then her relative called to say he had made a mistake. It wasn’t the young Elizabeth after all who had found the body. It had been Elizabeth’s aunt. And that’s how Loftus had the opportunity to experience what it was like to possess her own false memory, richly detailed and deeply felt.” (Source: “The Brain: the story of you” by David Eagleman)\r\n\r\n<strong>Memory is a form of intelligence</strong>\r\n\r\nAs Danny Kahneman says in quote cited at the beginning of this piece, memory is a form of intelligence. In fact, some psychologists say that <strong>intelligence is nothing more than a deep, specialized bank of memories</strong>. The following example will help you understand why.\r\n\r\nRead the following three statements and tell me if the third statement true or false:\r\n\r\n<em>Crocodiles are mammals. Mammals have babies. Therefore crocodiles have babies.</em>\r\n\r\nThe third statement is false because the first statement is false. Even though by asking you to focus on the third statement, I am distracting you away from the first statement, some people are more likely than others to spot that the first statement is false. Those people are either biology buffs and/or those who remember having been taught in school that crocs are reptiles, not mammals. The ability to recall such information swiftly and apply it in the right context is why Kahneman says that memory is a form of intelligence.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nMemory in all its avatars (perception, projection, intelligence) obviously plays a big role in how we invest. Arguably, memory is the basis of how we invest. The fragility of our memories (both in the sense of how quickly they fade and in the sense of how susceptible to manipulation they are) suggests that we need to be careful with how we deal with memories. Four specific steps seem particularly useful to us:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>1. We find it useful to write down not just how meetings with management or primary data sources went but also how we perceived particularly good/bad corporate announcements. Similarly, writing down the reasons for buying, selling or avoiding a stock is seems to be a good idea. It helps to create a tangible record which we can come back to years later when our recollection of the event has faded or have been coloured.</li>\r\n 	<li>2. Buying or selling a stock basis what someone else has told us worries us even if the someone else is the CEO of that company, a reputed analyst or an industry guru. These people are – unintentionally perhaps - profoundly colouring or memories and influencing our perceptions. Hence we are increasingly disinclined to place too much value on meeting the CEO or industry gurus.</li>\r\n 	<li>3. We find it useful to have a team where members have diverse memories and varied experiences to bank upon. A team in which everybody is a middle aged, male Chartered Account who has grown up in Mumbai or where everybody is a graduate from IIM is likely to have less memories (and hence less intelligence) to draw upon than a more diverse team.</li>\r\n 	<li>4. In light of what neuroscience is telling us about how the human mind works, the artisanal-skill style of investing where an intelligent, experienced fund manager draws upon her memories and then makes a judgement call on a company seems increasingly vulnerable to criticism. If we want to create a robust investment process which does not wax and wane with our memories of annual reports we have read and companies we have met, we have to rely more on data than our memories/intelligence. That in turn will push all of us – even those who are not quant fund managers – towards using a quantitative framework to drive 80% of the investment process (with the omniscient fund manager’s judgement being the final 20%).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Your memory will determine how much money you make', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'your-memory-will-determine-how-much-money-you-make', '', '', '2019-11-19 05:51:11', '2019-11-19 05:51:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=382', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(383, 1, '2018-12-28 08:54:45', '2018-12-28 08:54:45', '<em>Published on: 28 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Through the ages, the greatest and most lasting fortunes have been built on the back of commercial opportunism allied with the willingness to bend the rule of the law repeatedly &amp; ruthlessly. The Medicis in Italy, the Mitsui in Japan and JP Morgan in America are exemplars of this template of capitalism. It is unrealistic to expect Indian capitalists to follow a different playbook and it is equally unrealistic to believe that you or I can make money by buying shares in such companies.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Through all these chapters, of which he [JP Morgan] was making a million or two or three every time he doctored a [rail]road…he was hammering at the principle that competition amongst the [rail]roads was disastrous…Morgan worked for that end, but he wanted it under an oligarchy of railroad presidents, dominated by a few bankers, himself the chieftest…Therefore, in 1888, he brought the leading road chiefs together at his home, talked harshly to them about their sins, and after much wrangling formed the Interstate Commerce Railroad Association to make effective his “community of interest” theory to end rate wars and set up an agency to arbitrate differences. He called it a gentleman’s agreement.” – <strong>John T.Flynn in “Men of Wealth: The Story of Twelve Significant Fortunes from the Renaissance to the Present Day” (1941)</strong> [square brackets are ours]</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to <a href=\"/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Free markets and Western propaganda</strong>\r\n\r\nOne of the challenges for people like us to who read Western publications like The Economist or the Wall Street Journal is that we end of implicitly believing some of the dogma promoted by such publications. Much of the Western financial press would have us believe that the path to prosperity lies via free markets, robust competition, a strong legal system and democratic political institutions. Relative to such a paradigm, India and India’s capitalists obviously fall short on many fronts and that then leads to recipes being trotted out for “reforming” India’s economy.\r\n\r\nHowever, if you look at the richest dynasties in America, in Europe and in Japan, their rise owes almost nothing to the nostrums preached by the Western intelligentsia. Instead, as we show below, the rise of families as disparate as the Mitsui in Japan, the Medicis in Italy and JP Morgan in USA has four common features which are all too familiar to Indians: <strong>(a)</strong> being at the cutting edge of financial innovation – in specific procuring funds as cheaply as possible and then deploying it for higher returns; <strong>(b)</strong> manipulating the political/regulatory system repeatedly and ruthlessly to stifle competition and corner the market; <strong>(c)</strong> extending the advantage created by the two preceding points to enter new industries and then lobbying for favourable regulatory change; and <strong>(d)</strong> perpetuating this recipe for success over multiple generations to create a dynasty whose tentacles extend across many parts of the economy, the polity and the clergy.\r\n\r\n<strong>Three Indian-style crony capitalists outside India</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Cosimo de Medici</strong> (1389-1464) was the founder the Medici dynasty which at its peak was Europe’s richest family, its most powerful bankers and de facto rulers of Florence for most of the fifteenth century. Cosimo inherited his banking skills and his seed capital from his father and then parlayed it into the greatest fortune Europe had ever seen. He fraternized with Franciscan clerics and presented them a monastery. In 1410, Giovanni lent John XXIII the money to buy himself the office of cardinal, which he repaid by making the Medici Bank head of all papal finances once he became the pope. As Cosimo set up bank branches in London, Pisa, Avignon, Bruges, Milan and Lubeck, the Vatican found it convenient to use the Medici Bank - since it enabled bishoprics in many parts of Europe to pay their fees into the nearest branch, whose manager would then issue a papal license, and the popes could more easily order a variety of wares – such as spices, textiles, and relics – through the Medicis\' wholesale trade.\r\n\r\nCosimo then used his wealth to control the votes of office holders in Florence’s municipal councils. As Florence was proud of its \"democracy\", Cosimo pretended to have little political ambition and did not hold public office. However, political questions were settled in Cosimo\'s house. He was king in all but name. In fact, the Medicis were the sort of kings that we are all too familiar with in India. John T Flynn says <em>“He mingled the virtues of the chalice and the dagger. The problems of competition that have continued to torture industrial barons, he met with the singularly effective application of the knife. Persons of power who were in his way…were murdered.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Hachirobei Mitsui</strong> (1622-1694) is the founder of the Mitsui business empire. The Mitsui clan were originally samurais (warriors) but Hachirobei’s father sold his swords and turned his hand to brewing saki &amp; soy sauce. Hachirobei, the youngest son, started a “cash &amp; carry” business (the first of its kind in Japan) and catered to the needs of the middle class. By the end of the 17th century, he had a thousand branches across Japan. Since he understood which merchants were good credits and which were not and since he could collect affluent customers’ deposits in his branches, it was but natural for him to enter banking. As his own cash management machine grew, he offered to do the same for the Shogun.\r\n\r\nJapanese peasants paid their taxes in the form of rice. The Shogun then had to sell the rice locally for gold and then transport the gold to his Treasury in Yedo. This was a hazardous business thanks to highway robbers. Hachirobei offered took over this operation. He brought the rice locally and without having to transport gold across the country, instructed his Yedo branch to deposit the requisite amount of gold in the Treasury. For him the Shogun became another ledger entry in his banking operation. However, in return for performing this service, the Mitsuis were given six months of free use of the taxes (i.e. the rice they collected).\r\n\r\nThe Mitsuis never relinquished this role as banker to the Shogun and proceeded to transform this “float” into a fortune. In the centuries that followed not only did they became the biggest lenders in Japan but also the owners the biggest cotton mills, the largest coal mines, the largest paper mills, the largest silk manufacturing operation in the world, etc. Their influence on the Japanese Government before and after the Meiji restoration was legendary. Often the head of the Mitsui business would become either the Finance Minister or the Governor of the central bank or both. Soon they were bribing officers of the Japanese Navy to buy arms from British arms manufacturers who had hired the Mitsuis to crack open the Japanese market, again something that we in India are accustomed to seeing in India.\r\n\r\n<strong>John Pierpont Morgan</strong> (1837-1913) was the defining banker of 19th century America and who, amongst other things, laid the foundations of the financial behemoth that is today’s JP Morgan. Morgan entered banking in 1857. During the American Civil War (1861-65) Morgan financed the purchase of five thousand faulty rifles (soldiers who were loading the guns were getting their thumbs blown away) from an army arsenal at $3.50 each, which were then resold to a field general for $22 each.\r\n\r\n30 years later came the episode which sealed Morgan’s reputation. The Federal Treasury was nearly out of gold in 1895. Morgan had put forward a plan for the Government to buy gold from his and European banks but it was declined in favor of a plan to sell bonds directly to the general public. Morgan then convinced the then US President that the Government could default if they didn\'t do something. Morgan came up with a plan which allowed Morgan and the Rothschilds to sell 3.5 million ounces of gold directly to the US Treasury in exchange for a 30-year government bond issue. This allowed Morgan to buy effectively buy US government bonds at $104.50 at a time when the prevailing rate was $111. Unsurprisingly, Morgan immediately sold the bonds in the open market for $112-124. Six months later when the US Government faced the same situation again, they circumvented Morgan and directly issued bonds to the public at $110-120.\r\n\r\nBetween these two events, Morgan became the promoter and financier of most key companies in America barring Standard Oil. He controlled most of the important railroad tracks. He controlled US Steel. He had AT&amp;T under this thumb. He controlled 10 insurance companies, 34 banks, 12 public utility corporations and 120 other corporations. In the words Louis Brandeis, former Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court, “JP Morgan (or a partner), a director of the New York, New Haven &amp; Hartford Railroad, causes that company to sell to JP Morgan &amp; Co, an issue of bonds...The New Haven spends the proceeds of the bonds in purchasing steel rails from the US Steel Corporation, of which Mr Morgan (or a partner) is a director. US Steel spends the proceeds of the rails in purchasing electrical supplies from the General Electric Company, of which Mr Morgan (or a partner) is a director….” (Source: “Other People’s Money and How the Bankers Use it” by Louis Brandeis)\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>History has shown us that often the recipe for massive wealth generation across multiple generations often involves abusing the law and corrupting the government of the day. For both ethical and for practical reasons, minority shareholders like us cannot hope to profit from buying shares in such companies even as we understand that the promoters of these companies will become obscenely wealthy and unbelievably powerful.</li>\r\n 	<li>The notion that somehow India will create an economic construct where such men will be tamed is delusional regardless of whichever political party is in charge in New Delhi. The rise of economies as disparate as Japan, America and Italy is basically the story of the rise of several such ruthless barons. To believe that a more benign form of capitalism existed once upon a time in the West and could one day exist in India is to believe in the fairytales spun by the Western intelligentsia.</li>\r\n 	<li>The combination of the two preceding points means that if we want to profit from India’s economic ascent, we have a superset of no more than 40 listed companies to choose from. These companies are relatively clean (in that they are not cooking their books and corrupting the polity), relatively well managed and have – without indulging in nefarious activity – managed to pull ahead of the competition. This very short list of companies ironically makes the job of profitably investing in the Indian stockmarket actually relatively straightforward.</li>\r\n 	<li>The crossroads at which India finds itself today – where the core of the banking system consisting of public sector banks has collapsed and where the RBI has lost two governors in four years – is ideally suited for the capture of the banking system by industrialists. No prizes for guess which industrial houses will grab the juiciest banks.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/ </a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Grand Fortunes and the Illusion of Competition', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'grand-fortunes-and-the-illusion-of-competition', '', '', '2019-11-25 04:53:27', '2019-11-25 04:53:27', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=383', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2068, 1, '2019-11-01 06:46:16', '2019-11-01 06:46:16', '<em>Published on: 9 Dec, 2018</em>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-378\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/who-is-marcellus-202x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"202\" height=\"300\" />\n\n<strong>We live in era defined by majoritarianism and social-media driven consensus. In such an age we seek inspiration from the one of the greatest warriors of the 20 th Century, Cassius Marcellus Clay, better known as Muhammad Ali.</strong>\n\n<em>“I know where I am going and I know the truth and I don’t have to be what you want me to be. I am free to be what I want.”</em>– <strong>Muhammad Ali</strong>\n\n<strong>Who is Marcellus?</strong>\n\nMarcellus means “little warrior” in Latin but for many of us in India the only Marcellus we know is Cassius Marcellus Clay better known as Muhammad Ali. This man’s career, his beliefs and his actions inside and outside the boxing ring make him an inspiration for middle class professionals like us who are trying to build something greater than ourselves with modest resources. This great boxer’s triumphs were more mental than physical and it is therefore poignant that the only fight he really lost was to Parkinson’s, a degenerative disorder which attacks the mind.\n\n<strong>The warrior and his legendary accomplishments</strong>\n\nThe broad trajectory of Muhammad Ali’s life is well known and memorably captured in David Remnick’s Pullitzer Prize winning 1999 biography <em>“King of the World: Muhammad Ali and the Rise of an American Hero”</em> (later made into a movie).\n\nCassius Marcellus Clay Junior was born in 1942 in the racially segregated south of the United States in Louisville, Kentucky, and started training as an amateur boxer at the age of 12. In 1960, he won Gold at the Rome Olympics as a light heavyweight. He turned professional immediately and converted to Islam. Three years later, in 1964, in what remains one of the biggest upsets in boxing and one of the greatest fights ever seen, he beat Sonny Liston – a fearsomely powerful boxer - to become the world champion for the first time. <em>“Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. Rumble, young man, rumble,”</em> Cassius Clay said in 1964, before his fight with Sonny Liston.\n\nAfter becoming world champion, Clay could have played the role of a well behaved, good looking black man who curries favour with the establishment in return for sponsorship. Instead, he changed his name to “Muhammad Ali” to leave behind his “slave name” and more importantly align himself to the burgeoning Civil Rights movement in America.\n\nThen in 1966, Ali refused to be drafted into the US military, citing his religious beliefs, and opposition to the American involvement in Vietnam. Ali was arrested by the US authorities, found guilty of draft evasion and stripped of his titles by the World Boxing Federation. Ali took the authorities to the Supreme Court which overturned his conviction in 1971.\n\nWhat followed was equally epic. Ali’s records through the 1970s of beating 21 boxers for the world heavyweight title (shared with Joe “Black Bomber” Louis), as well as winning 14 unified title bouts (shared with former welterweight champion José Napoles), were unbeaten for 35 years. Muhammad Ali is the only boxer to be named The Ring magazine “Fighter of the Year” six times. Ali was ranked as the greatest athlete of the 20th century by Sports Illustrated and the Sports Personality of the Century by the BBC.\n\nTwo of Ali’s title fights from the 1970s have been turned into books and movies: the 1974 “Rumble in the Jungle” with the until then undefeated George Foreman (a fight which Ali won but got beaten so badly that he urinated blood for two days thereafter) and the 1975 “Thriller in Manilla” with Joe Frazier (the contest\'s name is derived from Ali\'s rhyming boast that the fight would be <em>“a killa and a thrilla and a chilla, when I get that gorilla in Manila\")</em>.\n\n<strong>The legacy</strong>\n\nLong before he became a legend, Ali stood up for causes he believed in knowing full well that he would have to pay a price. <em>“When he refused to fight in Vietnam, saying, \"I have no quarrel with the Vietcong\", it was 1966, two years before the first sizeable protests [regarding the Vietnam War]…When he declared his membership of the Nation of Islam [in 1961], he wasn\'t just denounced by tattooed bikers and cross- eyed Texans. His album was removed from the shops by Columbia, and the boxing authorities sought to strip him of his title.” (Source:<a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-not-just-in-the-ring-1132296.html\">https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-notjust-in-the-ring-1132296.html</a>)</em> [brackets are ours]\n\nFor refusing to fight in Vietnam, Ali lost five years at the peak of his career. That did not deter him from training hard and going back into the ring in 1972. Well past his peak, Ali repeatedly took on younger, more powerful fighters in high profile title fights, soaked their punches, tired them out and then pulverised them. Both George Foreman (in 1974) and Joe Frazier (in 1975) lost to a man who was mentally stronger than them although they were physically much stronger. If you watch the documentary <em>“When We Were Kings”</em> of the 1974 Ali vs Foreman fight, you will see that Foreman was so powerful that each time he hit the 100 pound punching bag, the trainer holding the bag would wince\n\nJust as important as the cerebral fighting was the generosity that Ali showed in reaching to the underprivileged in Africa and Asia. Well before philanthropy became fashionable, Ali started distributing his fortune to lepers in Asia, Palestinian refugees in the Middle East and Parkinson’s victims the world over. By the time Ali died, he had given away much of his fortune to philanthropic causes.\n\n<strong>The lessons from the legend</strong>\n\nEven for those of us who might only have a fraction of the courage of this African- American legend, his willingness to stand up for his beliefs is an inspiration. Ali was a was a conscientious objector and gave up virtually everything – his career, his title, most of his income – to stand up for what he believed in, namely, the refusal to kill innocent people from another country just because his Government demanded that he do so. Whilst our challenges might be more prosaic – hinging as they do around our clients, our families and our beliefs around how money should be managed – in our willingness to put everything on the line, we seek to learn from the example set by this fighter\n\nHowever, Ali’s life also has a resonance for us beyond the narrow confines of our jobs. In a world where majorities are intent upon using the might of the state to assert their dominance on minorities, Ali remains an inspiration. In fact, the African- American athletes who are standing upto Donald Trump at present are taking a leaf out of Ali’s playbook. Mark Steel of The Independent, in an article celebrating Ali being voted “sports personality of the century” wrote: <em>“His persona, his fighting ability and his beliefs dictated each other\'s technique. He argued as he boxed, allowing his opponents to exhaust themselves while responding with the occasional perfectly aimed jab before demolishing them in a flawless flurry that was too fast for the eye to follow. And his principles fashioned his boxing. \"Stand up white America,\" he roared at the prostrate Floyd Patterson, after toppling the man who white America had hoped would win back the title from the Nation of Islam.”</em> (Source: <a href=\"https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-not-just-in-the-ring-1132296.html\">https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/muhammad-ali-is-a-hero-but-notjust-in-the-ring-1132296.html</a>)\n\n<em>“What I suffered physically was worth what I’ve accomplished in life. A man who is not courageous enough to take risks will never accomplish anything in life,” Ali said at a news conference in 1984.\nMuhammad Ali died on 30 th June 2016. A friend said: “Muhammad had continued to say he was not afraid of death.”</em>\n\nFor more on Marcellus visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services</strong>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Who is Marcellus and why does he matter', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '377-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:46:16', '2019-11-01 06:46:16', '', 377, 'https://marcellus.in/377-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(384, 1, '2019-01-04 09:16:54', '2019-01-04 09:16:54', '<em>Published on: 4 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-385\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/chart1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"246\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-386\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/chart2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"246\" /><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-387\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/chart3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"247\" /><img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-388\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/chart4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"764\" height=\"246\" /></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>The extent of competitive advantage possessed by a firm can fluctuate as the sector in which the firm operates grows (from niche to nationwide). The aggregation of this phenomenon across the entire stockmarket results in the BSE500 demonstrating twice as much churn as the Sensex. In fact, no other broadbased equity index in a major stockmarket displays as much as churn as the BSE500.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“A simple example should help explain why small markets are more hospitable than larger ones for attaining competitive advantages. Consider the case of an isolated town in Nebraska with a population of fifty thousand or less. A town of this size can one large discount store. A determined retailer who develops such a store should expect to enjoy an unchallenged monopoly. If a second store were to enter the town, neither would have enough customer traffic to be profitable. Other than things being equal, the second entrant could not expect to drive out the first, so its best choice is to stay away…At the other extreme...is downtown New York City. This large market can support many essentially similar stores. The ability of even a powerful, well-financed incumbent to prevent entry by a newcomer will be limited. It cannot…establish effective barriers to entry based on economies of scale…” – <strong>Bruce Greenwald &amp; Judd Kahn in “Competition Demystified: A radically simplified approach to business strategy” (2005)</strong> </em>\r\n\r\n<strong>The enigma of “churn” in the Indian market</strong>\r\n\r\nThe uneven manner in which in which the Indian stockmarket churns has puzzled us for several years. To be specific, churn in the Sensex has been around 25-30% for the past decade i.e. over a ten year period, around 7-9 companies exit the Sensex (and an equally number enter). In contrast, churn in the BSE500 has been around 50-60% implying that over the course of a decade, between 250-300 companies exit the index (with an equivalent number entering). In fact, there is no other broadbased index in any other major stockmarket which churns anything as much as the BSE500. To date we had failed to understand why the BSE500 churns twice as much as the Sensex.\r\n\r\n<strong>Competitive advantage fluctuates as a company grows</strong>\r\nNow, however, we believe we have a cogent theory for why churn is so much higher in the BSE500 than in the Sensex. Basically, we are seeing Indian companies’ moats go through various stages of waxing and waning as these companies grow and as the sectors in which operate grow as well.\r\n\r\n<strong>Stage 1 - Inception:</strong> A niche market emerges and a firm which is dominant in that niche prospers as other players in that niche either don’t have a quality product and/or have higher total cost/unit produced. The market leader establishes its dominance in the niche (which can be geographic niche or a niche in the product space) and spreads outwards. Garware Technical Fibres is an example of a firm currently in Stage 1 – see Chart 1.\r\n\r\nThe fact that the market leader has a cost advantage can be easily demonstrated. Suppose, the fixed costs of setting up operations (legal costs, capex for a factory, paying for the packaging &amp; branding) are Rs 10 crores and suppose that the variable costs (raw materials &amp; fuel primarily) are very low in comparison. Assuming that the market size is Rs 100 crores, if the market leader has 50% market share (which is the not unusual when a sector is in its infancy), the fixed costs form only 20% of its revenues. In contrast if the other players have each around 10% market share, their revenues are barely enough to cover their fixed costs. Thus the barriers to entry appear to be relatively high at this stage of the sector’s evolution.\r\n\r\n<strong>Stage 2 – Rapid new entry:</strong> As the niche market grows, the cost advantage of the largest player is narrowed down at a per unit level (as fixed costs can be defrayed across a wider revenue base). So the competitive disadvantage reduces for the non-leading players. As result, operating margins start coming under pressure for the leader. Markets grow rapidly by attracting new customers who are by definition non captive. These customers provide a viable base for new entrants. Additionally, what also tends to happen is the success of the market leader draws new entrants into the market. La Opala is an example of a firm currently in Stage 2 – see Chart 2.\r\n\r\nSo, let’s assume that the Rs 100 crore market we saw in Stage 1 grows 10x over the course of a decade and becomes a Rs 1000 crore market. Assume further that our market leader still has 50% market share and that the laggards still have around 10% market share each. However, the laggards’ revenues are now comfortably in excess of their fixed costs (of Rs 10 crores) and this attracts lots of new entrants. In fact, the laggards are now likely to have free cash flow which they will spend on heavy marketing &amp; advertising. Such spend will force the market leader to also spend on marketing which will drag down the market leaders’ margins.\r\n\r\n<strong>Stage 3 – Intense competition:</strong> Now there are several players in the burgeoning market and although the market leader still has the best operating margins, there are other profitable and increasingly sizeable players in a large and highly competitive market. Operating efficiency is now a critical driver of success in this stage of a sector’s evolution. Eg. mobile telephony or vehicle financing today.\r\n\r\nThe big risk for the market leader at this stage - bigger than the more obvious risk of rising competitive intensity- is that it tries to deal with slowing earnings growth by entering new markets or new industries. If he does so then the leader’s ability to deal with intense competition in his core business is diluted and with that dilution in focus goes his chances of improving operating efficiency. Bharti’s entry into Africa in 2009 is an example of a less than ideal response to rising competitive intensity in its core market. In contrast, HDFC Bank’s and Gruh Finance’s obsessive focus on expanding inside their core market allowed them to reinforce their leadership even as an increasing number of challengers entered their market. Bharti is an example of a business currently in Stage 3 – see Chart 3.\r\n\r\n<strong>Stage 4 – The leader consolidates:</strong> In the final stage in a sector’s evolution one or two players create very powerful moats (not just around efficiency but also around customer captivity and around favourable access to lower cost inputs). These players then drive everybody else out of the industry by not hiking prices which hampers the ability of the less efficient players to hike prices and stay profitable. For example, Dr Lal Pathlabs has not hiked prices in the last two years whilst Asian Paints’ ten year price hike CAGR is just 2%. In short, these companies are the Consistent Compounders who are the stars of Saurabh’s bestselling book “The Unusual Billionaires” (Penguin, 2016) – firms like Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, ITC and Marico.\r\n\r\nNot only is the road to stage 4 via stage 3, even more specifically, a market leading firm only makes it to stage 4 if it works hard on improving efficiency and staying focused in stage 3. If a firm loses focus in stage 3 then stage 4 – and Consistent Compounding – proves elusive for it as Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel and numerous other large Indian companies have discovered over the past decade.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>As the Indian economy gets networked with better roads, low cost flights (along with several smaller airports) and widely available broadband, it is increasingly becoming possible to discover “niche” markets which can catered to on a regional or national basis (whereas in the past these markets were each a little island in small town or village with poor connectivity to the next town or village).These niche opportunities are what’s creating lots of stage 1 and stage 2 firms. For example, over a decade ago, La Opala focused on a niche segment in the tableware market - opalware. Around this, the firm first built a franchise in eastern India and then across India. Its market cap went from being around Rs 150 crores ten years ago to around Rs 2500 crores now. La Opala’s success has now attracted Borosil and Cello (Wimplast) into the opalware market.</li>\r\n 	<li>Competitive intensity is relatively low in stages 1 &amp; 2, peaks in stage 3 and moderates somewhat in 4. Share price growth for market leading firms is therefore likely to following the same path.</li>\r\n 	<li>Stage 3 usually comes when a company has broken into a the BSE500 after a good run lasting at least five years. This is when the average fund manager in India and the typically sellside analyst in Mumbai “discovers” a stock. Because stage 3 is toughest of the four stages, it also helps us understand why companies who have just entered the BSE500 find it so hard to sustain earnings growth and share price momentum.</li>\r\n 	<li>Companies which seem to be in stage 4 are “Consistent Compounders” like Relaxo, Page Industries, Dr Lal’s Pathlabs, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Gruh Finance, Pidilite, Nestle, etc. Once a company has nailed down its moats in stage 4, it is very hard to dislodge. This explains why churn in the Sensex is so much lower than churn in the BSE500.</li>\r\n 	<li>Investors are far more likely to make healthy returns (due to the spread between Return on Capital and cost of capital being juicy) from stage 1 &amp; 4 companies. Stage 4 are likely to multi-billion $ market caps. Stage 1 are likely to have market cap below $0.5bn.</li>\r\n 	<li>Smart investors focus on stages 1 &amp; 4. The lazy money chases stocks in stage 3. Thanks to the lure of the rear view mirror the temptation to invest in stage 3 stocks tends to be very high.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/ </a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How Competitive Advantage Drives Churn in the Stockmarket', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-competitive-advantage-drives-churn-in-the-stockmarket', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:06:05', '2019-11-19 06:06:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=384', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(1996, 1, '2019-10-24 04:08:36', '2019-10-24 04:08:36', '20 years ago twelve American academics published a collection of studies tracing the intellectual development of giants like Einstein, Darwin, Faraday, Lavoisier, Beethoven and Wordsworth. This intense study of creative people yields rich leanings. At the core of creativity is a heavy duty memory, a multiplicity of projects, stimulating company and a willingness to work at perfecting your craft for decades on end.\r\n\r\n“…it is a truism to say that the creative person is unique, since that is true for every human being. But the key point is that the student of creative work makes the understanding of that uniqueness the central goal of the investigation. If there is to be a scientific understanding of creative people, it cannot be limited to those few things we may find that some creative people have in common. Instead, we must search for a general approach to the description and understanding of unique, creative people.” - Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber in ‘Creative People at Work’ (1989)\r\n\r\nLearnings from experts’ study of creativity\r\nWhatever our abilities might be, the British neuroscientist, Sarah-Jayne Blakemore has shown that we can improve regardless of our age because of the trainability, the plasticity of the human brain: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-your-all-powerful-plastic-brain/. An especially exciting area of learning is around enhancing our creativity and improving our ability to think originally. American academic, Adam Grant’s exceptional book on this subject ‘Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World’ (2016) has been a rich source of learning for us. We learnt from Grant that “original thinkers – in investing and beyond – have wide ranging interests beyond their profession, have a yearning to alter the status quo and a high rate of idea generation.” (You can find our blog on this subject here: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/)\r\n\r\nAdam Grant’s book refers to an older, more detailed study of creativity conducted by a dozen American academics in 1989. ‘Creative People at Work: Twelve Cognitive Case Studies’ is an engrossing study of the greatest minds of the last 500 years. Edited by Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber, the book traces in detail the education and step-by-step intellectual development of giants like Alfred Einstein, Charles Darwin, Michael Faraday, Antoine Lavoisier, Hans Krebs, Beethoven and William Wordsworth. What did they study? For how long? Who were their friends and their sounding boards? How did they juggle multiple projects? How did they deal with setbacks?\r\n\r\nBoth ‘Originals’ and ‘Creative People at Work’ say that there is no cut &amp; dried recipe for creativity. Nor is there is a fixed set of personality traits which indicate whether one person will be more or less creative than her neighbour. Both books stress that creativity is the result of purposeful, determined &amp; sustained effort rather than being the result – as the popular preconception goes – of a lightbulb going off in the head of a genius. So what then are the most reliable methods to juice up creativity? Here are our learnings from ‘Creative People at Work’ (CPW).\r\n\r\nFive methods to enhance creativity\r\nMemory: One of the most fascinating aspects of creativity is how dependent it is on memory. Beethoven wrote that “I carry my thoughts about with me for a very long time, often for a very long time before writing them down. I can…be sure that…I shall not forget [a theme] even years later. I change many things, discard others and try again and again until I am satisfied; then in my head I begin to elaborate the work…the underlying idea never deserts me. It rises, it grows. I hear and see the image in front of me from every angle…” (Source: ‘Beethoven: Letters and Journals and Conversations’ (1952) by M.Hamburger).\r\nIn our 10th December 2018 blog we have elaborated upon how psychologists have demonstrated that memory is a type of intelligence; in fact, intelligence is nothing more than a specialised bank of memories (see <a href=\"/blogs/your-memory-will-determine-how-much-money-you-make/\">\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/your-memory-will-determine-how-much-money-you-make/</a>). In his landmark book ‘Thinking, Fast &amp; Slow’ (2011) Danny Kahneman famously says, “Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find the relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.” That in turn leads us to delve into how creative people enhance their memories so that their recall is richer and deeper than that of the average person.\r\n\r\nHenry Roediger, who runs the Memory Lab at the University of Washington at St Louis, has found that “memory champions” have high cognitive ability. “We found that one of the biggest differences between memory athletes and the rest of us is in a cognitive ability that’s not a direct measure of memory at all but of attention”.\r\nSimply put, people who have developed their memories to a very high level have highly developed “attentional control”, i.e. the ability to maintain heightened focus on essential information for long periods of time. In other words, a side effect of the effort that these champions put into memorising stuff is that they learn to concentrate for extended periods of time. This ability can be then usefully applied to any task requiring deep concentration.\r\n\r\nWide reading alongside deep education: If just reading around widely was all that it took to be creative then we would have millions of newspaper readers and social media junkies bursting with fresh ideas. Instead, creativity it would appears arises from gaining mastery of one’s discipline by using a very specific style of reading/education. We call it the “T-shaped” model of brain development i.e. the creative masters read around extensively whilst educating/training themselves intensively in a specific field. Chapter 9 of CPW explains how Albert Einstein used this model of mastery to generate the insight which ultimately led to his “special theory of relativity, a monumental achievement…[for] a single scientist working alone and out of the academic mainstream”. Experts who have sought to understand how Einstein cracked this puzzle have broken his problem-solving into two parts.\r\nStep 1 was a thought experiment that Einstein conducted when he was just 16 years old. This thought experiment contained the seeds to cracking the problem of special relativity. In Einstein’s own words from his ‘Autobiographical Notes’: \"...a paradox upon which I had already hit at the age of sixteen: If I pursue a beam of light with the velocity c (velocity of light in a vacuum), I should observe such a beam of light as an electromagnetic field at rest though spatially oscillating. There seems to be no such thing, however, neither on the basis of experience nor according to Maxwell\'s equations. From the very beginning it appeared to me intuitively clear that, judged from the standpoint of such an observer, everything would have to happen according to the same laws as for an observer who, relative to the earth, was at rest. For how should the first observer know or be able to determine, that he is in a state of fast uniform motion? One sees in this paradox the germ of the special relativity theory is already contained.\" [For an illustrated account what Einstein is saying, read https://www.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/Goodies/Chasing_the_light/]\r\nEinstein’s thought experiment highlighted a paradox with utmost simplicity: either I am moving with the beam of light with velocity c or I am at rest. I cannot be in both states at the same time.\r\n\r\nStep 2 is Einstein proceeding to crack this paradox over the next 11 years and helping the world understand how light travels and more generally, how objects – including celestial bodies – move in a world where gravitational effects are negligible.\r\n\r\nCPW contends that Einstein’s ability to hit upon the novel thought experiment in Step 1 was greatly helped not just by by his (fairly conventional) schooling in Germany and then Italy but also by: (a) his extensive discussions with his uncle, Caesar Koch, who would spend hours discussing complex maths problems with his teenage nephew; and (b) his special schooling in Switzerland in a Kantonsschule which specialised in Anschauung i.e. intuition or ‘apprehension or immediate perception that involves fewest elements of rational insight’.\r\n\r\nEinstein’s success in Step 2 was also underpinned not just by his conventional university education in Zurich Polytechnic but also the inputs he received on his scientific papers from his uncle. Furthermore, through his teenage years Einstein absorbed the philosophy of Immanuel Kant, the father of Anschauung, who propounded that all of us possess not just intellect but also intuition. Kant famously argued that the objects we see around us are just “mere representations and not as things in themselves\". Kant’s exhortation to think about the world in abstract terms and nail down truths which are independent of what we have experienced in our day-to-day life had a direct influence, say the authors of CPW, on Einstein’s intellectual development.\r\n\r\nTo see an alternative illustration of the T-shaped model of creative mastery in the martial arts, see our blog on Bruce Lee: http://marcellus.in/blogs/Bruce-lee-and-the-rise-of-the-generalist/\r\n\r\nA multiplicity of projects pursed with patience &amp; purpose: As Wallace &amp; Grubber say in CPW, “We use the term enterprise to stand for a group of related projects and activities broadly enough defined so that (1) the enterprise may continue when the creative person finds one path blocked but another open toward the same goal and (2) when success is achieved the enterprise does not come to an end but generates new tasks and projects that continue it.\r\nEnterprises rarely come singly. The creative person differentiates a number of main lines of activity. This has the advantage that when enterprise grinds to a halt, productive work does not cease. The person has an agenda, some measure of control over the rhythm and sequence with which different enterprises are activated. This control can be used to deal with needs for variety, with obstacles encountered…\r\nA second outstanding characteristic of enterprises is their longevity and durability. To take only one example, Milton began the work that led to ‘Paradise Lost’ in 1640 but did not complete it until 1667. It was the major project within the enterprise of writing epic poems; that enterprise was one among several – politics, prose pamphlets, and the shorter poems.”\r\n\r\nHow does pursuing a bunch of projects help creativity? Firstly, these projects give structure to the creative person’s life which might otherwise – to the outsider – look disorganised. Secondly, this range of projects ‘allows the person to choose tasks that fit different moods and needs.’ Thirdly, pursuing a portfolio of projects allows for cross fertilization of ideas. For example, “Darwin was a pigeon fancier, but he had no need to strive to be a great breeder. For him, consorting with pigeon breeders was a way of steeping himself in the art and lore of breeding, knowledge that he could turn to good account in other enterprises, in the zone of his greatness.”\r\n\r\nPurposeful repetition &amp; revision: One of the great ironies of creativity is that great works of art or literature that are commonly perceived to be the result of a burst of creativity are usually the result of endless practice, repetition and rehearsal. Take, for example, the poems of William Butler Yeats: “Lest it be thought that liberation “from the pressure of will” produced outpourings of untrammeled spontaneity, be it noted that Yeats was an extremely deliberate writer. He “followed a pattern of composition which was to vary very little for the rest of his life: prose draft, rough verse drafts, fair copy, magazine publication and then further revisions for the first printing in book form.”…one of his biographers stresses “the tremendous organisation that informs the poems and the poet; every crisis is mastered and every poem comes out of years of preparation.”\r\n\r\nCollaboration &amp; interaction with others: It is extremely rare for creative people to work in a void. Such people have a range of associates around them to provide emotional support (especially encouragement in the face of setbacks), intellectual support (especially thoughts on how to see the same idea differently) and practical help (money, meals, etc). CPW has a riveting chapter on how the English poet, William Wordsworth, wrote his poems and the role that others – particularly his sister, Dorothy, and the poet Coleridge – played in the composition of one of Wordsworth’s most famous poems, ‘The Daffodils’ aka ‘I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud’ (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45521/i-wandered-lonely-as-a-cloud):\r\n“Wordsworth’s living arrangements facilitated bringing others into the process of reworking [his poems]. This was true of his collaborative relationship with Coleridge and more pervasive and long lived in his relationship with his sister Dorothy.\r\nDorothy was an extremely sensitive observer and recorder of the Lake District’s landscape scenes where she and her brother lived and walked. Wordsworth\'s famous poem ‘The Daffodils’, composed in 1804, finds its source in the vocabulary and images of Dorothy’s ‘Journal’ where she describes the daffodils she and her brother had seen on a walk together…Wordsworth’s poem begins:\r\n‘I wandered lonely as a cloud\r\nThat floats on high o’er vales and hills\r\nWhen all at once I saw a crowd,\r\nA host of golden daffodils-\r\nAlong the lake, beneath the trees,\r\nTen thousand dancing in the breeze…’\r\n\r\nDorothy had described the scene in her ‘Journal’ in in April 1802: ‘I never saw daffodils so beautiful they grew upon mossy stones and about them, some rested their heads upon these stones as a on a pillow for weariness and the rest tossed and reeled and danced and seemed as if they verily laughed with the wind that blew upon them…’\r\n\r\nThus one of the best known poems in English begins with a joint experience, a scene observed by William and Dorothy…” (Source: ‘Creative People at Work’ (1989) by Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber)\r\n\r\nThe five bullet points listed above are obviously related. For example, it is difficult for a creative person to pursue repetition &amp; revision if her memory is not highly developed. The causality also flows in the opposite direction: it is not easy to have a highly developed memory if one does not repeatedly practice one’s art. Furthermore, it is difficult to find the motivation for prolonged and repetitive revisions if one does not have an underlying sense of purpose of drive. That in turn raises the question why it is that some people are more driven and more motivated than others. We have tried to address this issue in our 5th April 2019 blog: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-foundations-of-self-belief/.\r\n\r\nInvestment implications\r\nWhen we began building Marcellus a little over a year ago, we consciously looked around not just for the smartest people we knew in the investment profession but also for people who love to read extensively, to discuss ideas for hours on end and – at the same time - know how to work hard (knowing full well that ‘hard work’ in our profession can come in a multitude of forms ranging from forensic financial analysis to meeting a dozen undergarment dealers in four different cities over two days). In fact, for most of us the very decision to leave behind the world of broking, investment banking and wealth management in order to build Marcellus hinged around such considerations i.e. we wanted to spend lots of time reading and discussing ideas rather than chasing targets, budgets, deadlines and other such ephemera from the conventional business world. We remain keen to work with people who enjoy reading at length and in-depth whilst having the maturity to bounce half-formed ideas off colleagues. We have learnt over time that from the seeds of such protean ideas are great investments born.\r\n\r\nWe seek to work with people whose core purpose in life is purposeful, deep inquiry into companies with the aim of generating healthy returns with compressed levels of risk for our 800 clients. We believe that the reason our two recent books – ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016) and ‘Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’ (2018) – have become national bestsellers is inherently linked to why our portfolio is delivering decent results i.e. we put our minds together to create a novel construct for investing in a highly conservative manner amidst the chaos of India. You can see here how we are doing: <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/</a>\r\n\r\nNeedless to say, we intend to continue learning from people who are more creative than us. Marcellus Investment Managers wishes all its clients, friends and well wishers a very Happy Diwali.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.', 'Diwali Special: Learning From Creative People At Work', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'diwali-special-learning-from-creative-people-at-work', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:14:10', '2019-11-06 06:14:10', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1996', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(518, 1, '2019-02-06 11:27:39', '2019-02-06 11:27:39', '<h1>February 2019</h1>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Feb 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:27:39', '2019-02-06 11:27:39', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(394, 1, '2019-01-23 09:50:12', '2019-01-23 09:50:12', '<h4>January 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_6Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_13Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">13th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<h4>December 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n        <li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_23Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n        <li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_30Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n<h4>November 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n', 'Three Longs & Three Shorts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '134-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-23 09:50:12', '2019-01-23 09:50:12', '', 134, 'http://marcellus.in/134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(396, 1, '2018-10-14 07:01:27', '2018-10-14 07:01:27', '<em>Published on: 14 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The creation of a mobile juggernaut</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kiran Stacey & Simon Mundy\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5</a>)\r\n\r\nIf you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: ‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Lewis\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team</a>)\r\n\r\nThe legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”     \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jerry Useem\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What made the US unique has become history </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free & fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.  \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christian Jarrett \r\nSource: Aeon (<a href=\"https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt</a>)\r\n\r\nMost psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The Insane Physics of Airbags </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rhett Allain\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this somewhat amusing piece of scientific trivia, the WIRED explains the need for an explosion of sorts in your steering wheel as a safety measure. Given the need for inflated airbags to pop out almost instantaneously upon a crash to protect the driver, the airbags are inflated by the rapid expansion of gas triggered by an explosion.\r\n \r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '14th Oct 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '14th-oct-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=396', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(397, 1, '2019-01-24 07:01:27', '2019-01-24 07:01:27', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The creation of a mobile juggernaut</strong></span>', '14th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '396-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 07:01:27', '2019-01-24 07:01:27', '', 396, 'http://marcellus.in/396-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(399, 1, '2019-01-24 07:05:25', '2019-01-24 07:05:25', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The creation of a mobile juggernaut</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAuthors: Kiran Stacey & Simon Mundy\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5</a>)\r\n', '14th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '396-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 07:05:25', '2019-01-24 07:05:25', '', 396, 'http://marcellus.in/396-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(401, 1, '2019-01-24 07:24:42', '2019-01-24 07:24:42', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The creation of a mobile juggernaut</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kiran Stacey & Simon Mundy\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5</a>)\r\n\r\nIf you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: ‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Lewis\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team</a>)\r\n\r\nThe legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”     \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jerry Useem\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What made the US unique has become history </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free & fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.  \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christian Jarrett \r\nSource: Aeon (<a href=\"https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt</a>)\r\n\r\nMost psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The Insane Physics of Airbags </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rhett Allain\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this somewhat amusing piece of scientific trivia, the WIRED explains the need for an explosion of sorts in your steering wheel as a safety measure. Given the need for inflated airbags to pop out almost instantaneously upon a crash to protect the driver, the airbags are inflated by the rapid expansion of gas triggered by an explosion.\r\n \r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '14th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '396-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 07:24:42', '2019-01-24 07:24:42', '', 396, 'http://marcellus.in/396-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(402, 1, '2018-10-21 09:26:31', '2018-10-21 09:26:31', '<em>Published on: 21 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jordan Robertson and Michael Riley\r\nSource: Bloomberg Businessweek (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies</a>)\r\n\r\nThis investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dexter Filkins\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east</a>)\r\n\r\nIn the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people. \r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.    \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Disha Shetty\r\nSource: Indiaspend.org (<a href=\"https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.  \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Kazmin \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab</a>)\r\n\r\nSome of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did. \r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nIn his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alexia Fernandez Campbell \r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts</a>)\r\n\r\nTo end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>\r\n', '21st Oct 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '21st-oct-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=402', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(403, 1, '2019-01-24 09:26:31', '2019-01-24 09:26:31', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jordan Robertson and Michael Riley\r\nSource: Bloomberg Businessweek (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies</a>)\r\n\r\nThis investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dexter Filkins\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east</a>)\r\n\r\nIn the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people. \r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.    \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Disha Shetty\r\nSource: Indiaspend.org (<a href=\"https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.  \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Kazmin \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab</a>)\r\n\r\nSome of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did. \r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nIn his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alexia Fernandez Campbell \r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts</a>)\r\n\r\nTo end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>\r\n', '21st Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '402-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:26:31', '2019-01-24 09:26:31', '', 402, 'http://marcellus.in/402-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(404, 1, '2018-10-28 09:32:48', '2018-10-28 09:32:48', '<em>Published on: 28 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Eric Shatzker\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet</a>)\r\n\r\nCliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.   \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism </strong></span>\r\nAuthor 1: Tobias Buck\r\nSource 1: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift</a>)\r\nAuthor 2: John B. Judis\r\nSource 2: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html</a>) \r\n\r\nIn India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show. \r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Zia Chishti \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4</a>)\r\n\r\nThe author -  inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates - says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anna Nicolau and Fan Fei \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956</a>)\r\n\r\nThe pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>6. Short read: Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel \r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/</a>)\r\n\r\nA slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time. \r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '28th-oct-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=404', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(405, 1, '2019-01-24 09:32:48', '2019-01-24 09:32:48', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n	<li>sdsadas</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n\r\n', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:32:48', '2019-01-24 09:32:48', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(406, 1, '2019-01-24 09:34:51', '2019-01-24 09:34:51', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"list-style-type:number;\">\r\n	<li>sdsadas</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n\r\n', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:34:51', '2019-01-24 09:34:51', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(407, 1, '2019-01-24 09:36:03', '2019-01-24 09:36:03', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ol type=\"1\">\r\n	<li>sdsadas</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n\r\n', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:36:03', '2019-01-24 09:36:03', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(408, 1, '2019-01-24 09:55:07', '2019-01-24 09:55:07', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\n\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\n\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\n\n<ul>\n	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\n<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em>\n</li>\n<li>\n<strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em>\n</li>\n<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\n</ul>\n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet</strong></span>\nAuthor: Eric Shatzker\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet</a>)\n\nCliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\n\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\n\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\n\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\n\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.   \n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism </strong></span>\nAuthor 1: Tobias Buck\nSource 1: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift</a>)\nAuthor 2: John B. Judis\nSource 2: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html</a>) \n\nIn India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show. \n\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\n\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\n\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\n\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence </strong></span>\nAuthor: Zia Chishti \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4</a>)\n\nThe author -  inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates - says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\n\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\n\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>\n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts </strong></span>\nAuthor: Anna Nicolau and Fan Fei \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956</a>)\n\nThe pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\n\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\n\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>\n\n', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:55:07', '2019-01-24 09:55:07', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(409, 1, '2019-01-24 09:56:36', '2019-01-24 09:56:36', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Eric Shatzker\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet</a>)\r\n\r\nCliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.   \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism </strong></span>\r\nAuthor 1: Tobias Buck\r\nSource 1: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift</a>)\r\nAuthor 2: John B. Judis\r\nSource 2: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html</a>) \r\n\r\nIn India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show. \r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Zia Chishti \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4</a>)\r\n\r\nThe author -  inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates - says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anna Nicolau and Fan Fei \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956</a>)\r\n\r\nThe pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>6. Short read: Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel \r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/</a>)\r\n\r\nA slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time. \r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 09:56:36', '2019-01-24 09:56:36', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(410, 1, '2018-11-04 10:11:01', '2018-11-04 10:11:01', '<em>Published on: 4 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. Hope you have a great Diwali break.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd \r\nSource: Caravan (<a href=\"https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india</a>)\r\n\r\nShudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population. \r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy. \r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins & Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins & Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way. \r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.   \r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Will underwhelming agriculture growth become a liability for BJP in 2019? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: G Seetharaman\r\nSource: Economic Times (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms)\r\n\r\nAverage agriculture growth under NDA has been less than under UPA. Why has this happened and what are the political consequences of this? In a superbly researched essay (plus an interview with the relevant Minister), Seetharaman, sheds light on what is potentially the defining political issue of the forthcoming General Election. The root causes of the problem appear to be:\r\n\r\n(a) The Minimum Support Price scheme for farmers – always imperfect at best – seems to have malfunctioned big time over the past 4 years. Either farmers are not able to sell at MSP or, if they do manage to sell, they are not getting paid on time. \r\n\r\n(b) India’s food output is obviously rising as more and more people become farmers. However, there is no concerted effort on the Government’s part to find export markets for this higher output. Instead, the sector remains mired in outdated regulations which stymie exports. \r\n\r\n(c) The amount of area under cultivation has actually fallen in India between FY11 and FY16 [from 160 mn hectares to 157 mn hectares] even as the number of farmers has risen. The squeeze on farmers’ standards of living are therefore intense.\r\n\r\n(d) Most intriguingly, every single year prior to FY17, the Agri Ministry has failed to spend the budgeted amount.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patrick McGee\r\nSource: Financial times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nThe car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart. \r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe. \r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ira Duggal \r\nSource: Bloomberg Quint (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place: \r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?” \r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move. \r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet. \r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence. \r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Keep it simple, silly </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Saurabh Mukherjea, Anupam Gupta \r\nSource: The Ken (https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/ )<a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/</a>\r\n\r\nElaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&P 500.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: A business ethics class from Australian cricket   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The FT Editorial Board \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c)<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c</a>\r\n\r\nAs Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n', '4th Nov 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '4th-nov-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=410', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(411, 1, '2019-01-24 10:11:01', '2019-01-24 10:11:01', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. Hope you have a great Diwali break.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd \r\nSource: Caravan (<a href=\"https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india</a>)\r\n\r\nShudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population. \r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy. \r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins & Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins & Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way. \r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.   \r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Will underwhelming agriculture growth become a liability for BJP in 2019? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: G Seetharaman\r\nSource: Economic Times (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms)\r\n\r\nAverage agriculture growth under NDA has been less than under UPA. Why has this happened and what are the political consequences of this? In a superbly researched essay (plus an interview with the relevant Minister), Seetharaman, sheds light on what is potentially the defining political issue of the forthcoming General Election. The root causes of the problem appear to be:\r\n\r\n(a) The Minimum Support Price scheme for farmers – always imperfect at best – seems to have malfunctioned big time over the past 4 years. Either farmers are not able to sell at MSP or, if they do manage to sell, they are not getting paid on time. \r\n\r\n(b) India’s food output is obviously rising as more and more people become farmers. However, there is no concerted effort on the Government’s part to find export markets for this higher output. Instead, the sector remains mired in outdated regulations which stymie exports. \r\n\r\n(c) The amount of area under cultivation has actually fallen in India between FY11 and FY16 [from 160 mn hectares to 157 mn hectares] even as the number of farmers has risen. The squeeze on farmers’ standards of living are therefore intense.\r\n\r\n(d) Most intriguingly, every single year prior to FY17, the Agri Ministry has failed to spend the budgeted amount.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patrick McGee\r\nSource: Financial times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nThe car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart. \r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe. \r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ira Duggal \r\nSource: Bloomberg Quint (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place: \r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?” \r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move. \r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet. \r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence. \r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Keep it simple, silly </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Saurabh Mukherjea, Anupam Gupta \r\nSource: The Ken (https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/ )<a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/</a>\r\n\r\nElaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&P 500.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: A business ethics class from Australian cricket   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The FT Editorial Board \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c)<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c</a>\r\n\r\nAs Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n', '4th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '410-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 10:11:01', '2019-01-24 10:11:01', '', 410, 'http://marcellus.in/410-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(412, 1, '2018-11-11 10:16:56', '2018-11-11 10:16:56', '<em>Published on: 11 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the waning popularity of the American MBA,  Paytm’s roller coaster, the rise of independent publishing and the fix to the Big Four’s conflicts of interest.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jonathan Moules & Andrew Jack \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nEven well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  The rickety house of Paytm </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sunny Sen and Jayadevan PK\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on. \r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alex Konrad\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2</a>)\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gillian Tett \r\nSource: Financial Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b</a>)\r\n\r\nIn 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book. \r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Thornhill\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad</a>)\r\n\r\nMoore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: At Last, a Small Step to Fix Audit’s Conflict of Interest </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Chris Hughes\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q</a>)\r\n\r\nKPMG’s UK arm, fresh off the Carillion accounting scandal, will no longer offer consultancy services to its audit clients in a bid to avoid the attendant conflicts of interest. Whilst this could well be a pre-emptive move before forced upon by regulation, it is welcome nevertheless, given the importance of independent audit.\r\n\r\n<em>The importance of audit quality cannot be overstated. Reliable numbers are the foundation of investment decisions. Accounting firms combine audit and consulting services, and the risk is that the vital task of stress-testing company numbers is treated as no more than a loss-leader for more lucrative consultancy projects. This potential conflict of interest may undermine an audit partner’s ability to challenge a company’s chief financial officer on their preliminary figures.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '11th Nov 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '11th-nov-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=412', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(413, 1, '2019-01-24 10:16:56', '2019-01-24 10:16:56', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the waning popularity of the American MBA,  Paytm’s roller coaster, the rise of independent publishing and the fix to the Big Four’s conflicts of interest.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jonathan Moules & Andrew Jack \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nEven well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  The rickety house of Paytm </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sunny Sen and Jayadevan PK\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on. \r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>', '11th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '412-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 10:16:56', '2019-01-24 10:16:56', '', 412, 'http://marcellus.in/412-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(414, 1, '2019-01-24 10:23:01', '2019-01-24 10:23:01', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the waning popularity of the American MBA,  Paytm’s roller coaster, the rise of independent publishing and the fix to the Big Four’s conflicts of interest.</strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA</strong></span>\nAuthors: Jonathan Moules & Andrew Jack \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\n\nEven well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\n\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\n\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\n\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education. \n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  The rickety house of Paytm </strong></span>\nAuthor: Sunny Sen and Jayadevan PK\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/</a>)\n\nAs the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on. \n\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\n\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>\n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn </strong></span>\nAuthor: Alex Konrad\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2</a>)\n\nAt Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication. \n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world </strong></span>\nAuthor: Gillian Tett \nSource: Financial Times\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b</a>)\n\nIn 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book. \n\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\n\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world. \n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension</strong></span>\nAuthor: John Thornhill\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad</a>)\n\nMoore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\n\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: At Last, a Small Step to Fix Audit’s Conflict of Interest </strong></span>\nAuthor: Chris Hughes\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q</a>)\n\n', '11th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '412-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 10:23:01', '2019-01-24 10:23:01', '', 412, 'http://marcellus.in/412-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(415, 1, '2019-01-24 10:23:34', '2019-01-24 10:23:34', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the waning popularity of the American MBA,  Paytm’s roller coaster, the rise of independent publishing and the fix to the Big Four’s conflicts of interest.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jonathan Moules & Andrew Jack \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nEven well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  The rickety house of Paytm </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sunny Sen and Jayadevan PK\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on. \r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alex Konrad\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2</a>)\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gillian Tett \r\nSource: Financial Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b</a>)\r\n\r\nIn 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book. \r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Thornhill\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad</a>)\r\n\r\nMoore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: At Last, a Small Step to Fix Audit’s Conflict of Interest </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Chris Hughes\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q</a>)\r\n\r\nKPMG’s UK arm, fresh off the Carillion accounting scandal, will no longer offer consultancy services to its audit clients in a bid to avoid the attendant conflicts of interest. Whilst this could well be a pre-emptive move before forced upon by regulation, it is welcome nevertheless, given the importance of independent audit.\r\n\r\n<em>The importance of audit quality cannot be overstated. Reliable numbers are the foundation of investment decisions. Accounting firms combine audit and consulting services, and the risk is that the vital task of stress-testing company numbers is treated as no more than a loss-leader for more lucrative consultancy projects. This potential conflict of interest may undermine an audit partner’s ability to challenge a company’s chief financial officer on their preliminary figures.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '11th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '412-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 10:23:34', '2019-01-24 10:23:34', '', 412, 'http://marcellus.in/412-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(416, 1, '2018-11-18 10:42:18', '2018-11-18 10:42:18', '<em>Published on: 18 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on two Indian women winning against the odds, the real reason behind Delhi’s smog, blockchain and Amazon’s HQ2. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Amma goes to school</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Shaju Philip \r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/</a>)\r\n\r\nNeuroscience has shown that the neurons in our brain gradually start dying from middle age and therefore our brain starts slowing down unless we keep it active by pushing it to learn new things. This heartwarming story from the Indian Express shows that ordinary Indians don’t need neuroscience to tell them such things. They figured out themselves that whatever be the odds and however old they might be, they will learn. In fact, they will learn first to read and write their native language even if they are 96 years old – as is the case with the heroine of this story, Karthyayani Amma (from Alappuzha in Kerala). Then they will learn English (Amma says “I want to learn more….I want to learn English next”).\r\n\r\n<em>“Karthyayani is among 60,000 people in the state who have been initiated into the world of letters through over half-a-dozen literacy schemes run by the Mission. An overwhelming number of them are, like Karthyayani, elderly women who have never gone to school. Having struggled through a major part of their lives and now in their sunset years, these women, huddled together in community centres and anganwadis, are discovering a whole new world — the magical loopiness of the Malayalam alphabet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Why didn’t I go to school? Because I was too busy bringing up my children,” says Karthyayani. For several decades, the mother of six worked as a casual cleaning worker at half a dozen temples in Cheppad in Alappuzha district.” </em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arvind Kumar \r\nSource: Ecologise (<a href=\"https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The girl who took women\'s cricket to the next level</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Annesha Ghosh\r\nSource: Cricinfo (<a href=\"http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level</a>)\r\n\r\nHarmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet \"like a son\", because \"I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn\'t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, \'Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?\' [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men\'s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane\'s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane\'s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy\'s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women\'s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India\'s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women\'s game at large. The tournament\'s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India - as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women\'s sport final. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"She just raised the bar high enough to see what\'s possible,\" says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375</a>)\r\n\r\nLast week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”. \r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest. \r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Don Weinland\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating. \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Louise Matsakis\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/</a> )\r\n\r\nAmazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimates</a> have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '18th Nov 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '18th-nov-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=416', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(417, 1, '2019-01-24 10:42:18', '2019-01-24 10:42:18', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on two Indian women winning against the odds, the real reason behind Delhi’s smog, blockchain and Amazon’s HQ2. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Amma goes to school</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Shaju Philip \r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/</a>)\r\n\r\nNeuroscience has shown that the neurons in our brain gradually start dying from middle age and therefore our brain starts slowing down unless we keep it active by pushing it to learn new things. This heartwarming story from the Indian Express shows that ordinary Indians don’t need neuroscience to tell them such things. They figured out themselves that whatever be the odds and however old they might be, they will learn. In fact, they will learn first to read and write their native language even if they are 96 years old – as is the case with the heroine of this story, Karthyayani Amma (from Alappuzha in Kerala). Then they will learn English (Amma says “I want to learn more….I want to learn English next”).\r\n\r\n<em>“Karthyayani is among 60,000 people in the state who have been initiated into the world of letters through over half-a-dozen literacy schemes run by the Mission. An overwhelming number of them are, like Karthyayani, elderly women who have never gone to school. Having struggled through a major part of their lives and now in their sunset years, these women, huddled together in community centres and anganwadis, are discovering a whole new world — the magical loopiness of the Malayalam alphabet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Why didn’t I go to school? Because I was too busy bringing up my children,” says Karthyayani. For several decades, the mother of six worked as a casual cleaning worker at half a dozen temples in Cheppad in Alappuzha district.” </em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arvind Kumar \r\nSource: Ecologise (<a href=\"https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The girl who took women\'s cricket to the next level</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Annesha Ghosh\r\nSource: Cricinfo (<a href=\"http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level</a>)\r\n\r\nHarmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet \"like a son\", because \"I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn\'t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, \'Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?\' [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men\'s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane\'s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane\'s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy\'s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women\'s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India\'s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women\'s game at large. The tournament\'s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India - as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women\'s sport final. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"She just raised the bar high enough to see what\'s possible,\" says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375</a>)\r\n\r\nLast week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”. \r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest. \r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Don Weinland\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating. \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Louise Matsakis\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/</a> )\r\n\r\nAmazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimates</a> have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '18th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '416-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 10:42:18', '2019-01-24 10:42:18', '', 416, 'http://marcellus.in/416-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(418, 1, '2018-11-25 11:26:17', '2018-11-25 11:26:17', '<em>Published on: 25 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the plastic backlash, the future of war, the isolated Sentinelese tribe, momentum investing and the perils of ignoring the short run for a long-term investor.  </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The plastic backlash: what\'s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Stephen Buranyi \r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits\">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits</a>)\r\n\r\nPlastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.” </em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.” </em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson & Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference. \r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show). \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The future of war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jason Korvold \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nThis article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless. </li>\r\n	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India. </li>\r\n	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li></ul>\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’ </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Madhusree Mukerjee\r\nSource: Scroll.in (<a href=\"https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven</a> )\r\n\r\nIn light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Leo Lewis \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nHave you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full & final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.   \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Petruno\r\nSource: UCLA Anderson Review (<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum</a>)\r\n\r\nFrom the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing - which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh & Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly & gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock. \r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent & puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory. \r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a> \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Time Horizon vs. Endurance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/</a> )\r\n\r\nAnother gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.  \r\n\r\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n\r\n', '25th Nov 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '25th-nov-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=418', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(419, 1, '2019-01-24 11:26:17', '2019-01-24 11:26:17', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the plastic backlash, the future of war, the isolated Sentinelese tribe, momentum investing and the perils of ignoring the short run for a long-term investor.  </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The plastic backlash: what\'s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Stephen Buranyi \r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits\">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits</a>)\r\n\r\nPlastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.” </em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.” </em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson & Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference. \r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show). \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The future of war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jason Korvold \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nThis article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless. </li>\r\n	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India. </li>\r\n	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li></ul>\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’ </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Madhusree Mukerjee\r\nSource: Scroll.in (<a href=\"https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven</a> )\r\n\r\nIn light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Leo Lewis \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nHave you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full & final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.   \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Petruno\r\nSource: UCLA Anderson Review (<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum</a>)\r\n\r\nFrom the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing - which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh & Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly & gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock. \r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent & puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory. \r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a> \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Time Horizon vs. Endurance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/</a> )\r\n\r\nAnother gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.  \r\n\r\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n\r\n', '25th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '418-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 11:26:17', '2019-01-24 11:26:17', '', 418, 'http://marcellus.in/418-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(420, 1, '2018-12-30 11:50:46', '2018-12-30 11:50:46', '<em>Published on: 30 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the science of forecasting, Mckinsey’s trysts with authoritarian regimes, interactive TV and wedding excesses.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>You can access previous editions of 3L & 3S at <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/</a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>We wish our readers a peaceful and prosperous 2019.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus is looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to </span><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Faber \r\nSource: Towards Data Science (<a href=\"https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc\">https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy. \r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe	\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client. \r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article. \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Peter Rubin\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/\">https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show\'s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and \'80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can\'t remember where you know them from. It has moments you\'re not sure you\'ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn\'t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn\'t just any episode. It\'s an \"interactive film\"—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via \"state tracking,\" a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But \"much smaller\" is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gretchen Reynolds \r\nSource: New York Times  \r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html</a>)\r\n\r\nWe know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\">https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nJohn Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: My life as an oracle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\">https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nAn introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….  \r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.” </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n', '30th Dec 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '30th-dec-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=420', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(421, 1, '2019-01-24 11:50:46', '2019-01-24 11:50:46', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the science of forecasting, Mckinsey’s trysts with authoritarian regimes, interactive TV and wedding excesses.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>You can access previous editions of 3L & 3S at <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/</a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>We wish our readers a peaceful and prosperous 2019.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus is looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to </span><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Faber \r\nSource: Towards Data Science (<a href=\"https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc\">https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy. \r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe	\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client. \r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article. \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Peter Rubin\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/\">https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show\'s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and \'80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can\'t remember where you know them from. It has moments you\'re not sure you\'ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn\'t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn\'t just any episode. It\'s an \"interactive film\"—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via \"state tracking,\" a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But \"much smaller\" is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gretchen Reynolds \r\nSource: New York Times  \r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html</a>)\r\n\r\nWe know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\">https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nJohn Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: My life as an oracle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\">https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nAn introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….  \r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.” </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n', '30th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '420-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 11:50:46', '2019-01-24 11:50:46', '', 420, 'http://marcellus.in/420-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(448, 1, '2019-01-28 09:21:20', '2019-01-28 09:21:20', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the science of forecasting, Mckinsey’s trysts with authoritarian regimes, interactive TV and wedding excesses.</strong>\n\n<strong>You can access previous editions of 3L & 3S at <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/</a></strong>\n\n<strong>We wish our readers a peaceful and prosperous 2019.</strong>\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus is looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to </span><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] \n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war</strong></span>\nAuthor: Isaac Faber \nSource: Towards Data Science (<a href=\"https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc\">https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc</a>)\n\nIn case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\n\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy. \n\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\n\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\n\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\n\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\n\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\n\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\n\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\n\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\n\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\n\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\n\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>\n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?</strong></span>\nAuthor: Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe	\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html</a>)\n\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\n\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client. \n\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\n\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\n\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\n\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article. \n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together  </strong></span>\nAuthor: Peter Rubin\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/\">https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/</a>)\n\nFor the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\n\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show\'s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and \'80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can\'t remember where you know them from. It has moments you\'re not sure you\'ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn\'t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn\'t just any episode. It\'s an \"interactive film\"—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\n\n<em>“It registers your choice via \"state tracking,\" a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\n\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But \"much smaller\" is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary  </strong></span>\nAuthor: Gretchen Reynolds \nSource: New York Times  \n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html</a>)\n\nWe know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\n\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\n\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\n\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\n\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>\n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights </strong></span>\nAuthor: John Gapper\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\">https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\n\nJohn Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\n\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\n\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\n\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\n\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\n\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: My life as an oracle</strong></span>\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\">https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\n\nAn introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….  \n\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.” </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\n', '30th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '420-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:21:20', '2019-01-28 09:21:20', '', 420, 'http://marcellus.in/420-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(423, 1, '2019-01-24 14:18:27', '2019-01-24 14:18:27', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> http://marcellus.in/jobs/]  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>1. Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:18:27', '2019-01-24 14:18:27', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(424, 1, '2019-01-24 14:20:26', '2019-01-24 14:20:26', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> http://marcellus.in/jobs/]  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>1. Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:20:26', '2019-01-24 14:20:26', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(425, 1, '2019-01-24 14:20:44', '2019-01-24 14:20:44', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>1. Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:20:44', '2019-01-24 14:20:44', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(426, 1, '2019-01-24 14:23:24', '2019-01-24 14:23:24', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a><span style=\"color:red;\">]</span>  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>1. Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:23:24', '2019-01-24 14:23:24', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(427, 1, '2019-01-24 14:23:56', '2019-01-24 14:23:56', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a><span style=\"color:red;\">]</span>  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:23:56', '2019-01-24 14:23:56', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(428, 1, '2018-12-16 14:37:35', '2018-12-16 14:37:35', '<em>Published on: 16 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on data as the new WMD, the king of quant investing, the other side of Elon Musk’s genius, socialism, grit and perseverance and lifting weights to fight depression.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Marcellus Investment Managers is recruiting. Visit</em> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/ </a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Christopher Wylie – what happens next?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jo Ellison \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nChristopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics - talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Jim Simons – the Numbers King  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: D.T.Max     \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king</a>)\r\n\r\nThe revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”<em> \r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research & academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.  \r\n\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla\'s Production Hell  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/</a>)\r\n\r\nAn investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why northern Europe is the new American dream? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Kuper \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nSimon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The State of Being Stuck </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ben Orlin\r\nSource: Math with Bad Drawings (<a href=\"https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/</a>)\r\n\r\nA wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christina Finn\r\nSource: Tonic (<a href=\"https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health</a>)\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n', '16 Dec 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '16-dec-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=428', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(429, 1, '2019-01-24 14:37:35', '2019-01-24 14:37:35', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on data as the new WMD, the king of quant investing, the other side of Elon Musk’s genius, socialism, grit and perseverance and lifting weights to fight depression.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Marcellus Investment Managers is recruiting. Visit</em> http://marcellus.in/jobs/ \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Christopher Wylie – what happens next?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jo Ellison \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d)\r\n\r\nChristopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics - talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Jim Simons – the Numbers King  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: D.T.Max     \r\nSource: New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king)\r\n\r\nThe revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”<em> \r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research & academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.  \r\n\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla\'s Production Hell  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: WIRED (https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/)\r\n\r\nAn investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why northern Europe is the new American dream? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Kuper \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d)\r\n\r\nSimon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The State of Being Stuck </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ben Orlin\r\nSource: Math with Bad Drawings (https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/)\r\n\r\nA wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christina Finn\r\nSource: Tonic (https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health)\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n', '16 Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '428-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:37:35', '2019-01-24 14:37:35', '', 428, 'http://marcellus.in/428-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(430, 1, '2019-01-24 14:39:20', '2019-01-24 14:39:20', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on data as the new WMD, the king of quant investing, the other side of Elon Musk’s genius, socialism, grit and perseverance and lifting weights to fight depression.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Marcellus Investment Managers is recruiting. Visit</em> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/ </a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Christopher Wylie – what happens next?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jo Ellison \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nChristopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics - talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Jim Simons – the Numbers King  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: D.T.Max     \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king</a>)\r\n\r\nThe revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”<em> \r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research & academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.  \r\n\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla\'s Production Hell  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/</a>)\r\n\r\nAn investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why northern Europe is the new American dream? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Kuper \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nSimon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The State of Being Stuck </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ben Orlin\r\nSource: Math with Bad Drawings (<a href=\"https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/</a>)\r\n\r\nA wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christina Finn\r\nSource: Tonic (<a href=\"https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health</a>)\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n', '16 Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '428-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-24 14:39:20', '2019-01-24 14:39:20', '', 428, 'http://marcellus.in/428-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(431, 1, '2018-12-09 07:08:09', '2018-12-09 07:08:09', '<em>Published on: 9 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on decision making lessons from poker, the real software genius buddies behind Google, Big corporate and fascism, parenting in  a world with gene editing is reality and Airbnb’s entry into home building. Previous editions of “Three longs & three shorts” can be accessed <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">here</a></strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Liv Boeree \r\nSource: TED talk (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Friendship That Made Google Huge  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: James Somers    \r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge</a>)\r\n\r\nNo, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind. \r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Wu\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patric Mcgee \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nBilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset. \r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing. \r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0</a>)\r\n\r\nThe genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science. \r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Airbnb will start designing - and selling - homes  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gaby Del Valle\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara</a>)\r\n\r\nAirbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts... While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', '9th Dec 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '9th-dec-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=431', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(432, 1, '2019-01-25 07:08:09', '2019-01-25 07:08:09', '\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on decision making lessons from poker, the real software genius buddies behind Google, Big corporate and fascism, parenting in  a world with gene editing is reality and Airbnb’s entry into home building. Previous editions of “Three longs & three shorts” can be accessed here</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Liv Boeree \r\nSource: TED talk (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M)\r\n\r\nIn this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.\r\n\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Friendship That Made Google Huge  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: James Somers    \r\nSource: The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge)\r\n\r\nNo, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind. \r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, Pablo Picasso and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Wu\r\nSource: The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html)\r\n\r\nThis New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patric Mcgee \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d)\r\n\r\nBilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset. \r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing. \r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0)\r\n\r\nThe genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science. \r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Airbnb will start designing - and selling - homes  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gaby Del Valle\r\nSource: Vox (https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara)\r\n\r\nAirbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts... While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', '9th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '431-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 07:08:09', '2019-01-25 07:08:09', '', 431, 'http://marcellus.in/431-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(433, 1, '2019-01-25 07:12:14', '2019-01-25 07:12:14', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on decision making lessons from poker, the real software genius buddies behind Google, Big corporate and fascism, parenting in  a world with gene editing is reality and Airbnb’s entry into home building. Previous editions of “Three longs & three shorts” can be accessed <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">here</a></strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion</strong></span>\nAuthors: Liv Boeree \nSource: TED talk (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M</a>)\n\nIn this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\n\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\n\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\n\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.\n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Friendship That Made Google Huge  </strong></span>\nAuthor: James Somers    \nSource: The New Yorker (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge</a>)\n\nNo, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind. \n\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\n\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\n\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>\n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.   </strong></span>\nAuthor: Tim Wu\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html</a>)\n\nThis New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\n\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.” </em>\n\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\n\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos </strong></span>\nAuthor: Patric Mcgee \nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d)\n\nBilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset. \n\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\n\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing. \n\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector. \n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential </strong></span>\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0)\n\nThe genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science. \n\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\n\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\n\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.” </em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Airbnb will start designing - and selling - homes  </strong></span>\nAuthor: Gaby Del Valle\nSource: Vox (https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara)\n\nAirbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts... While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\n\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', '9th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '431-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 07:12:14', '2019-01-25 07:12:14', '', 431, 'http://marcellus.in/431-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(434, 1, '2019-01-25 07:13:21', '2019-01-25 07:13:21', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on decision making lessons from poker, the real software genius buddies behind Google, Big corporate and fascism, parenting in  a world with gene editing is reality and Airbnb’s entry into home building. Previous editions of “Three longs & three shorts” can be accessed <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">here</a></strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Liv Boeree \r\nSource: TED talk (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Friendship That Made Google Huge  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: James Somers    \r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge</a>)\r\n\r\nNo, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind. \r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Wu\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patric Mcgee \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nBilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset. \r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing. \r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0</a>)\r\n\r\nThe genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science. \r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Airbnb will start designing - and selling - homes  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gaby Del Valle\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara</a>)\r\n\r\nAirbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts... While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', '9th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '431-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 07:13:21', '2019-01-25 07:13:21', '', 431, 'http://marcellus.in/431-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(435, 1, '2018-12-02 08:33:50', '2018-12-02 08:33:50', '<em>Published on: 2 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with your our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on changing the world, midlife crisis, Nirvana’s ‘Nevermind’, Cryptocurrencies and Real Estate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Admiral McRaven \r\nSource: University of Texas (<a href=\"https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas. \r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Paul Flannery   \r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed</a>)\r\n\r\nCanadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Nirvana’s “Nevermind” - The 1991 album that gave rise to a rock genre and captured the spirit of a new generation.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Hua Hsu\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the things great writers can do is pick quirky/interesting subjects of popular interest to write on and then bring unusually deep perspective to bear on the matter. This super essay from the New Yorker in Nirvana’s superhit 1991 song “Nevermind” falls in that category. This essay is part of the New Yorker’s “Touchstones” series in which New Yorker writers guide us through the works that shaped them as critics and as people.\r\n\r\nNirvana brought a new type of music – grunge – into the mainstream and behind Nirvana was a smart businessman. In the author’s words, <em>“When Nirvana released its second album, “Nevermind,” in the fall of 1991, everything changed—for me, and for the pop-music ecosystem. The band, which now consisted of Cobain, the bassist Krist Novoselic, and the drummer Dave Grohl, had signed with a major label, Geffen Records. A few years earlier, Geffen had begun wagering that “alternative rock”—a category that began appearing on the Billboard charts around that time—could be a profitable niche. The label had signed Sonic Youth, respected pioneers of New York’s avant-garde rock scene, and a band whose trajectory and choices Cobain admired. Perhaps there was a strange excitement to smuggling something unusual into the mainstream. The cover of “Nevermind,” which featured a naked baby swimming toward a dollar bill, seemed a sly and hilarious allusion to signing with Geffen.”</em>\r\n\r\nWith the launch of Nevermind came a song which for many people instantly evokes 1991 whenever the first few chords are played. <em>“The perfect distillation of Nirvana’s newly refined sound was “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” which Cobain later described as his jokey attempt to write “the ultimate pop song.” On September 29, 1991, the music video for “Smells Like Teen Spirit” premièred on MTV’s late-night alternative-music show, “120 Minutes.” The video quickly went from the “120 Minutes” niche to the “Buzz Bin”—MTV’s showcase for up-and-coming bands—to constant rotation.”</em>\r\n\r\nCentral to the electric appeal of this song was lead singer Kurt Cobain’s ability to toggle between “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard”. For many of us who could not stand hard rock, this song was a reminder of how powerful the effect can be if an artist can combine two genres in one song. In the author’s words, <em>“Cobain admired how the Pixies could move from “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard.” You can hear a similar dynamism in the opening of Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” in which Cobain’s low-key guitar suddenly gives way to Grohl’s end-of-days drumming.” </em>\r\n\r\nThen in the liner notes of Nirvana’s 1992 album “Incesticide”, Kurt Cobain said something which made him a god for many of us who at that point in our life – like the author – were still seeking an identity: <em>“If any of you in any way hate homosexuals, people of different color, or women, please do this one favor for us—leave us the fuck alone! Don’t come to our shows and don’t buy our records.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the story of this remarkable man’s remarkable life unfortunately fits the pattern of many rock star’s lives – blazing stardom followed by heroin addiction followed by suicide in 1994. But the memories of 1991, of a remarkable album and of a remarkable artist will never die. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Merryn Somerset Webb \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee</a>)\r\n\r\nAcross the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nouriel Roubini\r\nSource: Project Syndicate (<a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why my generation is the last of the hedonists </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '2nd Dec 2018', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '2nd-dec-2018', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=435', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(436, 1, '2019-01-25 08:33:50', '2019-01-25 08:33:50', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with your our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on changing the world, midlife crisis, Nirvana’s ‘Nevermind’, Cryptocurrencies and Real Estate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Admiral McRaven \r\nSource: University of Texas (https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/)\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas. \r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Paul Flannery   \r\nSource: Medium (https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed)\r\n\r\nCanadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Nirvana’s “Nevermind” - The 1991 album that gave rise to a rock genre and captured the spirit of a new generation.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Hua Hsu\r\nSource: New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind)\r\n\r\nOne of the things great writers can do is pick quirky/interesting subjects of popular interest to write on and then bring unusually deep perspective to bear on the matter. This super essay from the New Yorker in Nirvana’s superhit 1991 song “Nevermind” falls in that category. This essay is part of the New Yorker’s “Touchstones” series in which New Yorker writers guide us through the works that shaped them as critics and as people.\r\n\r\nNirvana brought a new type of music – grunge – into the mainstream and behind Nirvana was a smart businessman. In the author’s words, <em>“When Nirvana released its second album, “Nevermind,” in the fall of 1991, everything changed—for me, and for the pop-music ecosystem. The band, which now consisted of Cobain, the bassist Krist Novoselic, and the drummer Dave Grohl, had signed with a major label, Geffen Records. A few years earlier, Geffen had begun wagering that “alternative rock”—a category that began appearing on the Billboard charts around that time—could be a profitable niche. The label had signed Sonic Youth, respected pioneers of New York’s avant-garde rock scene, and a band whose trajectory and choices Cobain admired. Perhaps there was a strange excitement to smuggling something unusual into the mainstream. The cover of “Nevermind,” which featured a naked baby swimming toward a dollar bill, seemed a sly and hilarious allusion to signing with Geffen.”</em>\r\n\r\nWith the launch of Nevermind came a song which for many people instantly evokes 1991 whenever the first few chords are played. <em>“The perfect distillation of Nirvana’s newly refined sound was “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” which Cobain later described as his jokey attempt to write “the ultimate pop song.” On September 29, 1991, the music video for “Smells Like Teen Spirit” premièred on MTV’s late-night alternative-music show, “120 Minutes.” The video quickly went from the “120 Minutes” niche to the “Buzz Bin”—MTV’s showcase for up-and-coming bands—to constant rotation.”</em>\r\n\r\nCentral to the electric appeal of this song was lead singer Kurt Cobain’s ability to toggle between “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard”. For many of us who could not stand hard rock, this song was a reminder of how powerful the effect can be if an artist can combine two genres in one song. In the author’s words, <em>“Cobain admired how the Pixies could move from “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard.” You can hear a similar dynamism in the opening of Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” in which Cobain’s low-key guitar suddenly gives way to Grohl’s end-of-days drumming.” </em>\r\n\r\nThen in the liner notes of Nirvana’s 1992 album “Incesticide”, Kurt Cobain said something which made him a god for many of us who at that point in our life – like the author – were still seeking an identity: <em>“If any of you in any way hate homosexuals, people of different color, or women, please do this one favor for us—leave us the fuck alone! Don’t come to our shows and don’t buy our records.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the story of this remarkable man’s remarkable life unfortunately fits the pattern of many rock star’s lives – blazing stardom followed by heroin addiction followed by suicide in 1994. But the memories of 1991, of a remarkable album and of a remarkable artist will never die. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Merryn Somerset Webb \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee)\r\n\r\nAcross the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nouriel Roubini\r\nSource: Project Syndicate (https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11)\r\n\r\nIn this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why my generation is the last of the hedonists </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '2nd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '435-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 08:33:50', '2019-01-25 08:33:50', '', 435, 'http://marcellus.in/435-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(437, 1, '2019-01-28 09:41:06', '2019-01-28 09:41:06', '<em>Published on: 2 Dec, 2018</em>\n\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with your our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on changing the world, midlife crisis, Nirvana’s ‘Nevermind’, Cryptocurrencies and Real Estate.</strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World</strong></span>\nAuthors: Admiral McRaven \nSource: University of Texas (<a href=\"https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/</a>)\n\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas. \n\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\n\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\n\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\n\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\n\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\n\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\n\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\n\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\n\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\n\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\n\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\n\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\n\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\n\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>\n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis  </strong></span>\nAuthor: Paul Flannery   \nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed</a>)\n\nCanadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\n\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\n\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\n\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>\n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Nirvana’s “Nevermind” - The 1991 album that gave rise to a rock genre and captured the spirit of a new generation.   </strong></span>\nAuthor: Hua Hsu\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind</a>)\n\nOne of the things great writers can do is pick quirky/interesting subjects of popular interest to write on and then bring unusually deep perspective to bear on the matter. This super essay from the New Yorker in Nirvana’s superhit 1991 song “Nevermind” falls in that category. This essay is part of the New Yorker’s “Touchstones” series in which New Yorker writers guide us through the works that shaped them as critics and as people.\n\nNirvana brought a new type of music – grunge – into the mainstream and behind Nirvana was a smart businessman. In the author’s words, <em>“When Nirvana released its second album, “Nevermind,” in the fall of 1991, everything changed—for me, and for the pop-music ecosystem. The band, which now consisted of Cobain, the bassist Krist Novoselic, and the drummer Dave Grohl, had signed with a major label, Geffen Records. A few years earlier, Geffen had begun wagering that “alternative rock”—a category that began appearing on the Billboard charts around that time—could be a profitable niche. The label had signed Sonic Youth, respected pioneers of New York’s avant-garde rock scene, and a band whose trajectory and choices Cobain admired. Perhaps there was a strange excitement to smuggling something unusual into the mainstream. The cover of “Nevermind,” which featured a naked baby swimming toward a dollar bill, seemed a sly and hilarious allusion to signing with Geffen.”</em>\n\nWith the launch of Nevermind came a song which for many people instantly evokes 1991 whenever the first few chords are played. <em>“The perfect distillation of Nirvana’s newly refined sound was “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” which Cobain later described as his jokey attempt to write “the ultimate pop song.” On September 29, 1991, the music video for “Smells Like Teen Spirit” premièred on MTV’s late-night alternative-music show, “120 Minutes.” The video quickly went from the “120 Minutes” niche to the “Buzz Bin”—MTV’s showcase for up-and-coming bands—to constant rotation.”</em>\n\nCentral to the electric appeal of this song was lead singer Kurt Cobain’s ability to toggle between “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard”. For many of us who could not stand hard rock, this song was a reminder of how powerful the effect can be if an artist can combine two genres in one song. In the author’s words, <em>“Cobain admired how the Pixies could move from “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard.” You can hear a similar dynamism in the opening of Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” in which Cobain’s low-key guitar suddenly gives way to Grohl’s end-of-days drumming.” </em>\n\nThen in the liner notes of Nirvana’s 1992 album “Incesticide”, Kurt Cobain said something which made him a god for many of us who at that point in our life – like the author – were still seeking an identity: <em>“If any of you in any way hate homosexuals, people of different color, or women, please do this one favor for us—leave us the fuck alone! Don’t come to our shows and don’t buy our records.”</em>\n\nThe rest of the story of this remarkable man’s remarkable life unfortunately fits the pattern of many rock star’s lives – blazing stardom followed by heroin addiction followed by suicide in 1994. But the memories of 1991, of a remarkable album and of a remarkable artist will never die. \n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again? </strong></span>\nAuthor: Merryn Somerset Webb \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee</a>)\n\nAcross the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\n\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\n\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\n\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China. \n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies </strong></span>\nAuthor: Nouriel Roubini\nSource: Project Syndicate (<a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11</a>)\n\nIn this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\n\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\n\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\n\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\n\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why my generation is the last of the hedonists </strong></span>\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift</a>)\n\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\n\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\n\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\n\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\n\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '2nd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '435-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:06', '2019-01-28 09:41:06', '', 435, 'http://marcellus.in/435-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(438, 1, '2019-01-25 08:36:53', '2019-01-25 08:36:53', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with your our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on changing the world, midlife crisis, Nirvana’s ‘Nevermind’, Cryptocurrencies and Real Estate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Admiral McRaven \r\nSource: University of Texas (<a href=\"https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas. \r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Paul Flannery   \r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed</a>)\r\n\r\nCanadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Nirvana’s “Nevermind” - The 1991 album that gave rise to a rock genre and captured the spirit of a new generation.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Hua Hsu\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the things great writers can do is pick quirky/interesting subjects of popular interest to write on and then bring unusually deep perspective to bear on the matter. This super essay from the New Yorker in Nirvana’s superhit 1991 song “Nevermind” falls in that category. This essay is part of the New Yorker’s “Touchstones” series in which New Yorker writers guide us through the works that shaped them as critics and as people.\r\n\r\nNirvana brought a new type of music – grunge – into the mainstream and behind Nirvana was a smart businessman. In the author’s words, <em>“When Nirvana released its second album, “Nevermind,” in the fall of 1991, everything changed—for me, and for the pop-music ecosystem. The band, which now consisted of Cobain, the bassist Krist Novoselic, and the drummer Dave Grohl, had signed with a major label, Geffen Records. A few years earlier, Geffen had begun wagering that “alternative rock”—a category that began appearing on the Billboard charts around that time—could be a profitable niche. The label had signed Sonic Youth, respected pioneers of New York’s avant-garde rock scene, and a band whose trajectory and choices Cobain admired. Perhaps there was a strange excitement to smuggling something unusual into the mainstream. The cover of “Nevermind,” which featured a naked baby swimming toward a dollar bill, seemed a sly and hilarious allusion to signing with Geffen.”</em>\r\n\r\nWith the launch of Nevermind came a song which for many people instantly evokes 1991 whenever the first few chords are played. <em>“The perfect distillation of Nirvana’s newly refined sound was “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” which Cobain later described as his jokey attempt to write “the ultimate pop song.” On September 29, 1991, the music video for “Smells Like Teen Spirit” premièred on MTV’s late-night alternative-music show, “120 Minutes.” The video quickly went from the “120 Minutes” niche to the “Buzz Bin”—MTV’s showcase for up-and-coming bands—to constant rotation.”</em>\r\n\r\nCentral to the electric appeal of this song was lead singer Kurt Cobain’s ability to toggle between “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard”. For many of us who could not stand hard rock, this song was a reminder of how powerful the effect can be if an artist can combine two genres in one song. In the author’s words, <em>“Cobain admired how the Pixies could move from “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard.” You can hear a similar dynamism in the opening of Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” in which Cobain’s low-key guitar suddenly gives way to Grohl’s end-of-days drumming.” </em>\r\n\r\nThen in the liner notes of Nirvana’s 1992 album “Incesticide”, Kurt Cobain said something which made him a god for many of us who at that point in our life – like the author – were still seeking an identity: <em>“If any of you in any way hate homosexuals, people of different color, or women, please do this one favor for us—leave us the fuck alone! Don’t come to our shows and don’t buy our records.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the story of this remarkable man’s remarkable life unfortunately fits the pattern of many rock star’s lives – blazing stardom followed by heroin addiction followed by suicide in 1994. But the memories of 1991, of a remarkable album and of a remarkable artist will never die. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Merryn Somerset Webb \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee</a>)\r\n\r\nAcross the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nouriel Roubini\r\nSource: Project Syndicate (<a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why my generation is the last of the hedonists </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '2nd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '435-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 08:36:53', '2019-01-25 08:36:53', '', 435, 'http://marcellus.in/435-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(439, 1, '2019-01-13 09:22:40', '2019-01-13 09:22:40', '<em>Published on: 13 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf</a>)\r\n\r\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nikita Puri \r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html</a>) \r\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.  \r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39</a> )\r\n\r\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability. \r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Collins \r\nSource: Daily Mail (<a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\r\nSource: Rational Optimist (<a href=\"http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/</a>)\r\n\r\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '13-jan-2019', '', '', '2019-01-28 10:08:23', '2019-01-28 10:08:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=439', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(440, 1, '2019-01-25 09:22:40', '2019-01-25 09:22:40', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell \r\nSource: New Yorker (http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf)\r\n\r\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nikita Puri \r\nSource: Business Standard (https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html) \r\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.  \r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\r\nSource: Medium (https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 )\r\n\r\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability. \r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>4. Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Collins \r\nSource: Daily Mail (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html)\r\n\r\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1)\r\n\r\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\r\nSource: Rational Optimist (http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/)\r\n\r\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '439-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 09:22:40', '2019-01-25 09:22:40', '', 439, 'http://marcellus.in/439-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(441, 1, '2019-02-07 05:49:14', '2019-02-07 05:49:14', '<em>Published on: 13 Jan, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf</a>)\n\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\n\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\n\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\n\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies </strong></span>\nAuthor: Nikita Puri\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html</a>)\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\n\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.\n\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\n\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\n\n3. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39</a> )\n\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability.\n\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\n\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\n\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\nAuthor: Tim Collins\nSource: Daily Mail (<a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html</a>)\n\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\n\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\n\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\n\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\n\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\n\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\n\n5. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\n\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\n\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\n\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\n\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\nSource: Rational Optimist (<a href=\"http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/</a>)\n\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\n\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\n\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\n\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\n\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\n\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '439-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-02-07 05:49:14', '2019-02-07 05:49:14', '', 439, 'http://marcellus.in/439-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(442, 1, '2019-01-25 09:24:50', '2019-01-25 09:24:50', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf</a>)\r\n\r\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nikita Puri \r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html</a>) \r\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.  \r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39</a> )\r\n\r\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability. \r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>4. Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Collins \r\nSource: Daily Mail (<a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\r\nSource: Rational Optimist (<a href=\"http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/</a>)\r\n\r\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '439-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 09:24:50', '2019-01-25 09:24:50', '', 439, 'http://marcellus.in/439-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(443, 1, '2019-01-06 10:20:24', '2019-01-06 10:20:24', '<em>Published on: 6 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the failure of democratic politics, the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, how to develop intellectual humility, effect of climate change on the fishing industry, private sector participation (or the lack of) in Indian infrastructure.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Too rich to jail</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Maureen Dowd \r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html</a>)\r\n\r\nMaureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way. \r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson   \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745</a>)\r\n\r\nA fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it  - <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Intellectual humility - the importance of knowing you might be wrong </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Brian Resnick\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication</a>)\r\n\r\nA paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robert Lee Hotz \r\nSource: Wall Street Journal (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860</a>)\r\n\r\nThe fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. \"It keeps me up at night,\" he says. \"I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn\'t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. [...] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others -- and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish\'s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING - Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Diamond\r\nSource: HBS (<a href=\"https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Retreat from private infrastructure projects</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ajay Shah\r\nSource: The Leap Blog (<a href=\"https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1</a>)\r\n\r\n20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure. \r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After  that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What\'s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government\'s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went  about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6 Jan 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '6-jan-2019', '', '', '2019-01-28 10:08:11', '2019-01-28 10:08:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=443', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(444, 1, '2019-01-25 10:20:24', '2019-01-25 10:20:24', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the failure of democratic politics, the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, how to develop intellectual humility, effect of climate change on the fishing industry, private sector participation (or the lack of) in Indian infrastructure.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Too rich to jail</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Maureen Dowd \r\nSource: New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html)\r\n\r\nMaureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way. \r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson   \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745)\r\n\r\nA fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it  - <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Intellectual humility - the importance of knowing you might be wrong </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Brian Resnick\r\nSource: Vox (https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication)\r\n\r\nA paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is false. As Adam Fetterman, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a few studies, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the unveiling of new evidence. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me angrily, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the Loss of Confidence Project.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robert Lee Hotz \r\nSource: Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860)\r\n\r\nThe fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. \"It keeps me up at night,\" he says. \"I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn\'t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. [...] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others -- and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish\'s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING - Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Diamond\r\nSource: HBS (https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/)\r\n\r\n<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Retreat from private infrastructure projects</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ajay Shah\r\nSource: The Leap Blog (https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1)\r\n\r\n20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure. \r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After  that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What\'s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government\'s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went  about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '443-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 10:20:24', '2019-01-25 10:20:24', '', 443, 'http://marcellus.in/443-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(445, 1, '2019-01-25 10:25:41', '2019-01-25 10:25:41', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the failure of democratic politics, the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, how to develop intellectual humility, effect of climate change on the fishing industry, private sector participation (or the lack of) in Indian infrastructure.</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Too rich to jail</strong></span>\nAuthor: Maureen Dowd \nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html</a>)\n\nMaureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\n\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\n\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\n\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way. \n\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\n\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\n\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\n\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics. \n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit? </strong></span>\nAuthor: Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson   \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745</a>)\n\nA fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\n\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\n\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\n\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it  - <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.” </em>\n\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\n\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\n\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\n\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\n\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>\n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Intellectual humility - the importance of knowing you might be wrong </strong></span>\nAuthor: Brian Resnick\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication</a>)\n\nA paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\n\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\n\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\n\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\n\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\n\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\n\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\n\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the Loss of Confidence Project.”</em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry</strong></span>\nAuthor: Robert Lee Hotz \nSource: Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860)\n\nThe fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\n\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. \"It keeps me up at night,\" he says. \"I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn\'t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.\" </em>\n\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. [...] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others -- and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish\'s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>\n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING - Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI </strong></span>\nAuthor: Megan Diamond\nSource: HBS (https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/)\n\n<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\n\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>\n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Retreat from private infrastructure projects</strong></span>\nAuthor: Ajay Shah\nSource: The Leap Blog (https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1)\n\n20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure. \n\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After  that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\n\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What\'s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\n\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government\'s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went  about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner. </em>\n\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '443-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 10:25:41', '2019-01-25 10:25:41', '', 443, 'http://marcellus.in/443-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(446, 1, '2019-01-25 10:26:36', '2019-01-25 10:26:36', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the failure of democratic politics, the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, how to develop intellectual humility, effect of climate change on the fishing industry, private sector participation (or the lack of) in Indian infrastructure.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Too rich to jail</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Maureen Dowd \r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html</a>)\r\n\r\nMaureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way. \r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson   \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745</a>)\r\n\r\nA fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it  - <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Intellectual humility - the importance of knowing you might be wrong </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Brian Resnick\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication</a>)\r\n\r\nA paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robert Lee Hotz \r\nSource: Wall Street Journal (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860</a>)\r\n\r\nThe fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. \"It keeps me up at night,\" he says. \"I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn\'t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. [...] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others -- and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish\'s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING - Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Diamond\r\nSource: HBS (<a href=\"https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Retreat from private infrastructure projects</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ajay Shah\r\nSource: The Leap Blog (<a href=\"https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1</a>)\r\n\r\n20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure. \r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After  that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What\'s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government\'s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went  about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '443-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 10:26:36', '2019-01-25 10:26:36', '', 443, 'http://marcellus.in/443-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(447, 1, '2019-01-25 10:30:29', '2019-01-25 10:30:29', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf</a>)\r\n\r\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nikita Puri \r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html</a>) \r\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.  \r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39</a> )\r\n\r\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability. \r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Collins \r\nSource: Daily Mail (<a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\r\nSource: Rational Optimist (<a href=\"http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/</a>)\r\n\r\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '439-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-25 10:30:29', '2019-01-25 10:30:29', '', 439, 'http://marcellus.in/439-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(449, 1, '2019-01-28 09:22:42', '2019-01-28 09:22:42', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the plastic backlash, the future of war, the isolated Sentinelese tribe, momentum investing and the perils of ignoring the short run for a long-term investor.  </strong>\n\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The plastic backlash: what\'s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?</strong></span>\nAuthors: Stephen Buranyi \nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits\">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits</a>)\n\nPlastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.” </em>\n\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.” </em>\n\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\n\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson & Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\n\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\n\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\n\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference. \n\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show). \n\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The future of war</strong></span>\nAuthor: Jason Korvold \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\n\nThis article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\n\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\n<ul>\n	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\n	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\n	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless. </li>\n	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\n	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\n	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\n	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\n	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\n	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\n	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India. </li>\n	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li></ul>\n\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.\n\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’ </strong></span>\nAuthor: Madhusree Mukerjee\nSource: Scroll.in (<a href=\"https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven</a> )\n\nIn light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\n\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\n\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs</strong></span>\nAuthor: Leo Lewis \nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\n\nHave you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full & final settlement”.\n\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.   \n\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?</strong></span>\nAuthor: Tom Petruno\nSource: UCLA Anderson Review (<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum</a>)\n\nFrom the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing - which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\n\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh & Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\n\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\n\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\n\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly & gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\n\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock. \n\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent & puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory. \n\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a> \n\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Time Horizon vs. Endurance</strong></span>\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/</a> )\n\nAnother gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.  \n\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\n\n\n', '25th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '418-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:22:42', '2019-01-28 09:22:42', '', 418, 'http://marcellus.in/418-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(450, 1, '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '<em>Published on: 14 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The creation of a mobile juggernaut</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kiran Stacey & Simon Mundy\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4297df22-bcfa-11e8-94b2-17176fbf93f5</a>)\r\n\r\nIf you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: ‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Lewis\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/sep/27/this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team</a>)\r\n\r\nThe legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”     \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jerry Useem\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all/521448/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What made the US unique has become history </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/2f62e842-c62e-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free & fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.  \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christian Jarrett \r\nSource: Aeon (<a href=\"https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://aeon.co/ideas/psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt</a>)\r\n\r\nMost psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The Insane Physics of Airbags </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rhett Allain\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/the-insane-physics-of-airbags/</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this somewhat amusing piece of scientific trivia, the WIRED explains the need for an explosion of sorts in your steering wheel as a safety measure. Given the need for inflated airbags to pop out almost instantaneously upon a crash to protect the driver, the airbags are inflated by the rapid expansion of gas triggered by an explosion.\r\n \r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '14th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '396-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '2019-01-28 09:38:25', '', 396, 'http://marcellus.in/396-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(451, 1, '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '<em>Published on: 21 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jordan Robertson and Michael Riley\r\nSource: Bloomberg Businessweek (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-america-s-top-companies</a>)\r\n\r\nThis investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dexter Filkins\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east</a>)\r\n\r\nIn the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people. \r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.    \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Disha Shetty\r\nSource: Indiaspend.org (<a href=\"https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.indiaspend.com/in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-of/</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.  \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Kazmin \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/1a008ebe-cad4-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab</a>)\r\n\r\nSome of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did. \r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/f3d65c10-d207-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nIn his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alexia Fernandez Campbell \r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/technology/2018/10/18/17989482/google-amazon-employee-ethics-contracts</a>)\r\n\r\nTo end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>\r\n', '21st Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '402-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '2019-01-28 09:39:01', '', 402, 'http://marcellus.in/402-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(452, 1, '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '<em>Published on: 28 Oct, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: What Sets Successful CEOs Apart</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Elena Lytkina Botelho, Kim Rosenkoetter Powell, Stephen Kincaid, Dina Wang\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart\">https://hbr.org/2017/05/what-sets-successful-ceos-apart</a>)\r\n\r\nThe authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey & Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em>\r\n</li>\r\n<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Eric Shatzker\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasn-t-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet</a>)\r\n\r\nCliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.   \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism </strong></span>\r\nAuthor 1: Tobias Buck\r\nSource 1: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a1f88c3c-d154-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5?accessToken=zwAAAWabgJwIkdOh-Iw80VQR6NOp8nV022a81Q.MEQCIEnfphtlySMnyxanfIgMNeHL1RRRKtCgqEJIrOx2rsSeAiAB7F0NobpEv3yxDHgi9u4-A0dQ0oG6n7r21TyKvsbqZA&sharetype=gift</a>)\r\nAuthor 2: John B. Judis\r\nSource 2: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/15/opinion/nationalism-trump-globalization-immigration.html</a>) \r\n\r\nIn India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show. \r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Zia Chishti \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/47111fce-d0a4-11e8-9a3c-5d5eac8f1ab4</a>)\r\n\r\nThe author -  inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates - says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anna Nicolau and Fan Fei \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/138fb9fa-cc1a-11e8-b276-b9069bde0956</a>)\r\n\r\nThe pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>6. Short read: Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel \r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/getting-rich-vs-staying-rich/</a>)\r\n\r\nA slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time. \r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', '28th Oct 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '404-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '2019-01-28 09:39:24', '', 404, 'http://marcellus.in/404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(453, 1, '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '<em>Published on: 4 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. Hope you have a great Diwali break.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd \r\nSource: Caravan (<a href=\"https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://caravanmagazine.in/caste/why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-today-india</a>)\r\n\r\nShudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population. \r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy. \r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins & Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins & Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way. \r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.   \r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Will underwhelming agriculture growth become a liability for BJP in 2019? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: G Seetharaman\r\nSource: Economic Times (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms)\r\n\r\nAverage agriculture growth under NDA has been less than under UPA. Why has this happened and what are the political consequences of this? In a superbly researched essay (plus an interview with the relevant Minister), Seetharaman, sheds light on what is potentially the defining political issue of the forthcoming General Election. The root causes of the problem appear to be:\r\n\r\n(a) The Minimum Support Price scheme for farmers – always imperfect at best – seems to have malfunctioned big time over the past 4 years. Either farmers are not able to sell at MSP or, if they do manage to sell, they are not getting paid on time. \r\n\r\n(b) India’s food output is obviously rising as more and more people become farmers. However, there is no concerted effort on the Government’s part to find export markets for this higher output. Instead, the sector remains mired in outdated regulations which stymie exports. \r\n\r\n(c) The amount of area under cultivation has actually fallen in India between FY11 and FY16 [from 160 mn hectares to 157 mn hectares] even as the number of farmers has risen. The squeeze on farmers’ standards of living are therefore intense.\r\n\r\n(d) Most intriguingly, every single year prior to FY17, the Agri Ministry has failed to spend the budgeted amount.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patrick McGee\r\nSource: Financial times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/61684fa6-d2f6-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nThe car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart. \r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe. \r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ira Duggal \r\nSource: Bloomberg Quint (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place: \r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?” \r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move. \r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet. \r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence. \r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Keep it simple, silly </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Saurabh Mukherjea, Anupam Gupta \r\nSource: The Ken (https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/ )<a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://the-ken.com/story/keep-it-simple-silly/</a>\r\n\r\nElaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&P 500.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: A business ethics class from Australian cricket   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The FT Editorial Board \r\nSource: Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c)<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/8daab5e4-db8a-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c</a>\r\n\r\nAs Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n', '4th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '410-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '2019-01-28 09:39:39', '', 410, 'http://marcellus.in/410-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(454, 1, '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '<em>Published on: 11 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the waning popularity of the American MBA,  Paytm’s roller coaster, the rise of independent publishing and the fix to the Big Four’s conflicts of interest.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jonathan Moules & Andrew Jack \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/d8ec7cd6-d153-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5</a>)\r\n\r\nEven well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read:  The rickety house of Paytm </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sunny Sen and Jayadevan PK\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://factordaily.com/the-rickety-house-of-paytm/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on. \r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Alex Konrad\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2018/10/08/the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn/#471047ff31a2</a>)\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gillian Tett \r\nSource: Financial Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dac09602-dc96-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b</a>)\r\n\r\nIn 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book. \r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Thornhill\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/11c1e372-e106-11e8-8e70-5e22a430c1ad</a>)\r\n\r\nMoore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: At Last, a Small Step to Fix Audit’s Conflict of Interest </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Chris Hughes\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/at-last-a-small-step-to-fix-audit-s-conflict-of-interest#gs.0XmJy5Q</a>)\r\n\r\nKPMG’s UK arm, fresh off the Carillion accounting scandal, will no longer offer consultancy services to its audit clients in a bid to avoid the attendant conflicts of interest. Whilst this could well be a pre-emptive move before forced upon by regulation, it is welcome nevertheless, given the importance of independent audit.\r\n\r\n<em>The importance of audit quality cannot be overstated. Reliable numbers are the foundation of investment decisions. Accounting firms combine audit and consulting services, and the risk is that the vital task of stress-testing company numbers is treated as no more than a loss-leader for more lucrative consultancy projects. This potential conflict of interest may undermine an audit partner’s ability to challenge a company’s chief financial officer on their preliminary figures.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '11th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '412-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '2019-01-28 09:39:55', '', 412, 'http://marcellus.in/412-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(455, 1, '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '<em>Published on: 18 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on two Indian women winning against the odds, the real reason behind Delhi’s smog, blockchain and Amazon’s HQ2. </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Amma goes to school</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Shaju Philip \r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://indianexpress.com/article/india/amma-goes-to-school-kerala-literacy-mission-pinarayi-vijayan-karthyayani-amma-5440769/</a>)\r\n\r\nNeuroscience has shown that the neurons in our brain gradually start dying from middle age and therefore our brain starts slowing down unless we keep it active by pushing it to learn new things. This heartwarming story from the Indian Express shows that ordinary Indians don’t need neuroscience to tell them such things. They figured out themselves that whatever be the odds and however old they might be, they will learn. In fact, they will learn first to read and write their native language even if they are 96 years old – as is the case with the heroine of this story, Karthyayani Amma (from Alappuzha in Kerala). Then they will learn English (Amma says “I want to learn more….I want to learn English next”).\r\n\r\n<em>“Karthyayani is among 60,000 people in the state who have been initiated into the world of letters through over half-a-dozen literacy schemes run by the Mission. An overwhelming number of them are, like Karthyayani, elderly women who have never gone to school. Having struggled through a major part of their lives and now in their sunset years, these women, huddled together in community centres and anganwadis, are discovering a whole new world — the magical loopiness of the Malayalam alphabet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Why didn’t I go to school? Because I was too busy bringing up my children,” says Karthyayani. For several decades, the mother of six worked as a casual cleaning worker at half a dozen temples in Cheppad in Alappuzha district.” </em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arvind Kumar \r\nSource: Ecologise (<a href=\"https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ecologise.in/2018/10/20/the-real-reason-for-delhis-annual-smoke-season/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The girl who took women\'s cricket to the next level</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Annesha Ghosh\r\nSource: Cricinfo (<a href=\"http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1164167/-the-girl-who-took-women-s-cricket-to-the-next-level</a>)\r\n\r\nHarmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet \"like a son\", because \"I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn\'t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, \'Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?\' [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men\'s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane\'s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane\'s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy\'s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women\'s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India\'s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women\'s game at large. The tournament\'s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India - as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women\'s sport final. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"She just raised the bar high enough to see what\'s possible,\" says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/stream/24ad2c58-14fb-4217-b6f7-7ef88ac51375</a>)\r\n\r\nLast week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”. \r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest. \r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”  </em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Don Weinland\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/85324256-d824-11e8-a854-33d6f82e62f8</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating. \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Louise Matsakis\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/amazon-hq2-search-backfired/</a> )\r\n\r\nAmazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimates</a> have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '18th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '416-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '2019-01-28 09:40:20', '', 416, 'http://marcellus.in/416-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(456, 1, '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '<em>Published on: 25 Nov, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the plastic backlash, the future of war, the isolated Sentinelese tribe, momentum investing and the perils of ignoring the short run for a long-term investor.  </strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The plastic backlash: what\'s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Stephen Buranyi \r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits\">https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/13/the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits</a>)\r\n\r\nPlastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.” </em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.” </em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson & Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference. \r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show). \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The future of war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Jason Korvold \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/442de9aa-e7a0-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nThis article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless. </li>\r\n	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India. </li>\r\n	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li></ul>\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’ </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Madhusree Mukerjee\r\nSource: Scroll.in (<a href=\"https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://scroll.in/article/903254/a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven</a> )\r\n\r\nIn light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Leo Lewis \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/17ad1942-e588-11e8-8a85-04b8afea6ea3</a>)\r\n\r\nHave you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full & final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.   \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Petruno\r\nSource: UCLA Anderson Review (<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/anderson-review/momentum</a>)\r\n\r\nFrom the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing - which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh & Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly & gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock. \r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent & puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory. \r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a> \r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Time Horizon vs. Endurance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/time-horizon-vs-endurance/</a> )\r\n\r\nAnother gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.  \r\n\r\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n\r\n', '25th Nov 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '418-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '2019-01-28 09:40:44', '', 418, 'http://marcellus.in/418-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(457, 1, '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '<em>Published on: 2 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with your our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on changing the world, midlife crisis, Nirvana’s ‘Nevermind’, Cryptocurrencies and Real Estate.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Admiral McRaven \r\nSource: University of Texas (<a href=\"https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://news.utexas.edu/2014/05/16/mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world/</a>)\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas. \r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Paul Flannery   \r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/s/greatescape/extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis-d87199a18bed</a>)\r\n\r\nCanadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Nirvana’s “Nevermind” - The 1991 album that gave rise to a rock genre and captured the spirit of a new generation.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Hua Hsu\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/culture/touchstones/an-appreciation-of-nirvanas-1991-album-nevermind</a>)\r\n\r\nOne of the things great writers can do is pick quirky/interesting subjects of popular interest to write on and then bring unusually deep perspective to bear on the matter. This super essay from the New Yorker in Nirvana’s superhit 1991 song “Nevermind” falls in that category. This essay is part of the New Yorker’s “Touchstones” series in which New Yorker writers guide us through the works that shaped them as critics and as people.\r\n\r\nNirvana brought a new type of music – grunge – into the mainstream and behind Nirvana was a smart businessman. In the author’s words, <em>“When Nirvana released its second album, “Nevermind,” in the fall of 1991, everything changed—for me, and for the pop-music ecosystem. The band, which now consisted of Cobain, the bassist Krist Novoselic, and the drummer Dave Grohl, had signed with a major label, Geffen Records. A few years earlier, Geffen had begun wagering that “alternative rock”—a category that began appearing on the Billboard charts around that time—could be a profitable niche. The label had signed Sonic Youth, respected pioneers of New York’s avant-garde rock scene, and a band whose trajectory and choices Cobain admired. Perhaps there was a strange excitement to smuggling something unusual into the mainstream. The cover of “Nevermind,” which featured a naked baby swimming toward a dollar bill, seemed a sly and hilarious allusion to signing with Geffen.”</em>\r\n\r\nWith the launch of Nevermind came a song which for many people instantly evokes 1991 whenever the first few chords are played. <em>“The perfect distillation of Nirvana’s newly refined sound was “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” which Cobain later described as his jokey attempt to write “the ultimate pop song.” On September 29, 1991, the music video for “Smells Like Teen Spirit” premièred on MTV’s late-night alternative-music show, “120 Minutes.” The video quickly went from the “120 Minutes” niche to the “Buzz Bin”—MTV’s showcase for up-and-coming bands—to constant rotation.”</em>\r\n\r\nCentral to the electric appeal of this song was lead singer Kurt Cobain’s ability to toggle between “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard”. For many of us who could not stand hard rock, this song was a reminder of how powerful the effect can be if an artist can combine two genres in one song. In the author’s words, <em>“Cobain admired how the Pixies could move from “soft and quiet” to “loud and hard.” You can hear a similar dynamism in the opening of Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit,” in which Cobain’s low-key guitar suddenly gives way to Grohl’s end-of-days drumming.” </em>\r\n\r\nThen in the liner notes of Nirvana’s 1992 album “Incesticide”, Kurt Cobain said something which made him a god for many of us who at that point in our life – like the author – were still seeking an identity: <em>“If any of you in any way hate homosexuals, people of different color, or women, please do this one favor for us—leave us the fuck alone! Don’t come to our shows and don’t buy our records.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the story of this remarkable man’s remarkable life unfortunately fits the pattern of many rock star’s lives – blazing stardom followed by heroin addiction followed by suicide in 1994. But the memories of 1991, of a remarkable album and of a remarkable artist will never die. \r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Merryn Somerset Webb \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/e115268e-e35e-11e8-a6e5-792428919cee</a>)\r\n\r\nAcross the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nouriel Roubini\r\nSource: Project Syndicate (<a href=\"https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why my generation is the last of the hedonists </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/b216442a-f3c2-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f?shareType=nongift</a>)\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '2nd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '435-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '2019-01-28 09:41:08', '', 435, 'http://marcellus.in/435-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(458, 1, '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '<em>Published on: 9 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on decision making lessons from poker, the real software genius buddies behind Google, Big corporate and fascism, parenting in  a world with gene editing is reality and Airbnb’s entry into home building. Previous editions of “Three longs & three shorts” can be accessed <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">here</a></strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Liv Boeree \r\nSource: TED talk (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nisSeC81u2M</a>)\r\n\r\nIn this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: The Friendship That Made Google Huge  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: James Somers    \r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/the-friendship-that-made-google-huge</a>)\r\n\r\nNo, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind. \r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.   </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Wu\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/opinion/sunday/fascism-economy-monopoly.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Patric Mcgee \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/9b7b6d12-f192-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nBilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset. \r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing. \r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector. \r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/1a8ca076-ec25-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0</a>)\r\n\r\nThe genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science. \r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.” </em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Airbnb will start designing - and selling - homes  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gaby Del Valle\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2018/11/30/18119648/airbnb-backyard-homes-samara</a>)\r\n\r\nAirbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts... While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', '9th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '431-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '2019-01-28 09:41:24', '', 431, 'http://marcellus.in/431-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(459, 1, '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '<em>Published on: 16 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on data as the new WMD, the king of quant investing, the other side of Elon Musk’s genius, socialism, grit and perseverance and lifting weights to fight depression.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Marcellus Investment Managers is recruiting. Visit</em> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/ </a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Christopher Wylie – what happens next?</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Jo Ellison \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4c394bbe-f22f-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nChristopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics - talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Jim Simons – the Numbers King  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: D.T.Max     \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/12/18/jim-simons-the-numbers-king</a>)\r\n\r\nThe revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”<em> \r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research & academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.  \r\n\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla\'s Production Hell  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/</a>)\r\n\r\nAn investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why northern Europe is the new American dream? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Kuper \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/4ccd99be-f2a1-11e8-ae55-df4bf40f9d0d</a>)\r\n\r\nSimon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: The State of Being Stuck </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ben Orlin\r\nSource: Math with Bad Drawings (<a href=\"https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2017/09/20/the-state-of-being-stuck/</a>)\r\n\r\nA wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Christina Finn\r\nSource: Tonic (<a href=\"https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://tonic.vice.com/en_us/article/nepdpm/lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health</a>)\r\n\r\nThere is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n', '16 Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '428-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '2019-01-28 09:41:40', '', 428, 'http://marcellus.in/428-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(460, 1, '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '<em>Published on: 23 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads – which are disproportionately from the FT, which has been on a roll in the run upto Christmas - focus on Agritech, Passive investing, Dealing with Burnout, the congestion and pollution in Indian cities.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to</span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a><span style=\"color:red;\">]</span>  \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ee6fb294-edc3-11e8-8180-9cf212677a57</a>)\r\n\r\nA variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere & Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/807909e2-0322-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….<em> \r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””<em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…<em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”<em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”<em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How to avoid burnout this Christmas</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Josh Cohen  \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/ea0ea4cc-0320-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nLooking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Blade sets course for congested cities in India </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Mundy \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/775424f2-f6fa-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c</a>)\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Steven Bernanrd & Amy Kazmin\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://ig.ft.com/india-pollution/</a>)\r\n\r\nThis graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Arre\r\nSource: Dushyant Shekhawat (<a href=\"https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.arre.co.in/social-commentary/zomato-rider-reaction-twitter-delivery-boy/</a>)\r\n\r\nA video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job - <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', '23rd Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '422-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '2019-01-28 09:41:55', '', 422, 'http://marcellus.in/422-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(461, 1, '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '<em>Published on: 30 Dec, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the science of forecasting, Mckinsey’s trysts with authoritarian regimes, interactive TV and wedding excesses.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>You can access previous editions of 3L & 3S at <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/\">http://marcellus.in/three-longs-three-shorts-what-we-read/</a></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>We wish our readers a peaceful and prosperous 2019.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color:red;\">[Note: Marcellus is looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to </span><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] \r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Faber \r\nSource: Towards Data Science (<a href=\"https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc\">https://towardsdatascience.com/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy. \r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Walt Bogdanich and Michael Forsythe	\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/15/world/asia/mckinsey-china-russia.html</a>)\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client. \r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article. \r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Peter Rubin\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/\">https://www.wired.com/story/black-mirror-bandersnatch-interactive-episode/</a>)\r\n\r\nFor the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show\'s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and \'80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can\'t remember where you know them from. It has moments you\'re not sure you\'ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn\'t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn\'t just any episode. It\'s an \"interactive film\"—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via \"state tracking,\" a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But \"much smaller\" is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gretchen Reynolds \r\nSource: New York Times  \r\n(<a href=\"https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html\">https://www.google.co.in/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/12/19/well/move/how-exercise-may-make-us-healthier.amp.html</a>)\r\n\r\nWe know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3\">https://www.ft.com/content/f57f7a40-02b0-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3</a>)\r\n\r\nJohn Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: My life as an oracle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\">https://www.ft.com/content/c0072220-044d-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nAn introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….  \r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.” </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n', '30th Dec 2018', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '420-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '2019-01-28 09:42:12', '', 420, 'http://marcellus.in/420-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(462, 1, '2019-01-28 09:42:28', '2019-01-28 09:42:28', '<em>Published on: 6 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the failure of democratic politics, the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, how to develop intellectual humility, effect of climate change on the fishing industry, private sector participation (or the lack of) in Indian infrastructure.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Too rich to jail</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Maureen Dowd \r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/17/opinion/sunday/trump-bankers-fraud.html</a>)\r\n\r\nMaureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way. \r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics. \r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit? </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson   \r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/a84647f8-0d0b-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745</a>)\r\n\r\nA fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it  - <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.” </em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Intellectual humility - the importance of knowing you might be wrong </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Brian Resnick\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication</a>)\r\n\r\nA paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robert Lee Hotz \r\nSource: Wall Street Journal (<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry-11545454860</a>)\r\n\r\nThe fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. \"It keeps me up at night,\" he says. \"I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn\'t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. [...] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others -- and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish\'s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING - Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Diamond\r\nSource: HBS (<a href=\"https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://digital.hbs.edu/artificial-intelligence-machine-learning/powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai/</a>)\r\n\r\n<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Retreat from private infrastructure projects</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ajay Shah\r\nSource: The Leap Blog (<a href=\"https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://blog.theleapjournal.org/2017/04/retreat-from-private-infrastructure.html?m=1</a>)\r\n\r\n20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure. \r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After  that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What\'s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government\'s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went  about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '443-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:42:28', '2019-01-28 09:42:28', '', 443, 'http://marcellus.in/443-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(463, 1, '2019-01-28 09:42:40', '2019-01-28 09:42:40', '<em>Published on: 13 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Taleb’s investment strategy, the Transgender bill, IQ as a measure of intelligence, the growing demand for Oat milk and why people prefer bad news.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong> Long read: Blowing up - How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell \r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://faculty.sites.uci.edu/pjorion/files/2018/03/NYorker2002-blowingup.pdf</a>)\r\n\r\n“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?... Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies  </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nikita Puri \r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/transgender-bill-2018-a-classic-case-of-protection-peppered-with-policing-119010401160_1.html</a>) \r\nIn case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.” </em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.  \r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Long read: IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Nassim Nicholas Taleb\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://medium.com/incerto/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39</a> )\r\n\r\nMore of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability. \r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is ...academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.” </em>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: WhatsApp\'s child porn problem: Google and Facebook\'s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Collins \r\nSource: Daily Mail (<a href=\"https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6535323/Google-Facebook-ad-networks-funding-WhatsApps-child-porn-problem.html</a>)\r\n\r\nIn case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks. That\'s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app\'s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook\'s advertising networks…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook - the owner of WhatsApp - in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT). </em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers - that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly - advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: \'It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.\'”</em>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emiko Terazano\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">https://www.ft.com/content/4824217e-0527-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\n\r\nMilk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>\r\n\r\n6. <span style=\"color:red;\"><strong>Short read: Why people prefer bad news</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Ridley\r\nSource: Rational Optimist (<a href=\"http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-persistent-appeal-of-pessimism/</a>)\r\n\r\nThe article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much - read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>... Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '13 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '439-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-01-28 09:42:40', '2019-01-28 09:42:40', '', 439, 'http://marcellus.in/439-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(529, 1, '2019-02-07 06:17:00', '2019-02-07 06:17:00', '<em>Published on: 20 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on devaluation in the role of shareholders, homage to Jack Bogle, robots in Chinese manufacturing, impact of algos on the market and a piece each on the twin architects of India’s historic test series win Down Under.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Plender\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7bbf4e24a&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/42871952-0463-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\nIn this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=97559bc9c5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/fdc1c064-1142-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e</a>)\r\nThe single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“...the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sandeep Dwivedi\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1819f4284e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/i-saw-the-making-of-cheteshwar-pujara-5535781/</a>)\r\nFrom patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Schumpeter column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05372dcbae&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/05/robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war</a>)\r\nEsquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>\r\n\r\n5.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Editorial Board\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a63f2e17b&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/7a2a0aa0-1a5b-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>\r\n\r\n6.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>  Short read: Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d1bc9b83c1&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/JKMXUSUlexqh6dAYGCn73N/Why-you-gotta-love-Bumrah.html</a>)\r\nRohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery - 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '20 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '528-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-07 06:17:00', '2019-02-07 06:17:00', '', 528, 'http://marcellus.in/528-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(522, 1, '2019-02-06 11:47:11', '2019-02-06 11:47:11', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"size-full wp-image-511 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '20 Jan, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:47:11', '2019-02-06 11:47:11', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(480, 1, '2019-02-04 18:23:54', '2019-02-04 18:23:54', '<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\">Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019</a>\r\n\r\n<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\">Marcellus_CCP   Newsletter  April_2019</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Newsletter', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter', '', '', '2019-10-31 12:53:35', '2019-10-31 12:53:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=resources&#038;p=480', 0, 'resources', '', 0),
(594, 1, '2019-03-08 14:00:02', '2019-03-08 14:00:02', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 8 March, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Our mind sees &amp; remembers the world in stylised &amp; stereotypical terms. If a story doesn’t fit our stereotype, we don’t remember it and hence don’t celebrate it. The lives of three forgotten heroes – Malik Ambar, Dara Shukoh and VO Chidambaram Pillai – exemplify this point.  </strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A nation that forgets its heroes will soon itself be forgotten.”</em> – <strong>Calvin Coolidge </strong>(US President from 1923-29)</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Our selective recall of our past</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most nations like to make a great show of how they celebrate the men and women who have shaped the n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">ation’s history. India is no different in that regard. However, the Indian public’s recollection of its historical heroes is somewhat selective. Leaving aside for a minute the reasons for this selective recall, here are three heroes whose names are rarely celebrated in Indian history inspite of the pioneering steps taken by each of them.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Malik Ambar (1548 – 1626): </strong>Malik Ambar lived one of the most extraordinary lives you will ever come across. Born in Ethiopia, Ambar was sold as a slave by his parents well before he was ten years old. His first owner was a businessman in Baghdad and he taught Ambar Arabic and finance and administration. Upon this death of his master, Ambar’s ownership changed hands several times over until in his late teens he found himself in the service Chengiz Khan, the chief minister of the Nizam Shahi dynasty (headquartered in Hyderabad). Chengiz was himself a former African slave and allowed Ambar to be his apprentice. When Chengiz died in 1575, Ambar became a mercenary and set upon building an army of crack troops which would at its peak number 50,000 and which would remain unbeaten by the Mughals (then at the peak of their powers under Akbar and subsequently Jahangir). Malik Ambar would go on to effectively become the master of the Deccan with the formidable fortress at Daulatabad (near Aurangadad) serving as his HQ. [It is worth visiting this remarkable citadel on top of a vertical incline to understand why this was one of the hardest fortresses in India to conquer; it was conquered only thrice in the 1000 years that it served as fortress.]</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">During his conquests, Ambar pioneered the guerrilla warfare tactics which Shivaji would copy and use equally effectively against the same enemy, the Mughals. Interestingly, the Marathas too were never able to beat Malik Ambar who died a peaceful death, away from the battlefield, at the ripe old age of 78.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Dara Shukoh (1615 – 1659)</strong>: Dara was Shah Jahan’s eldest son, his blue eyed boy and his publicly stated heir apparent. Thanks to the fortune that his doting father lavished upon him, Dara launched himself into a set of intellectual adventures which are without equal in the history of Mughal royalty. Dara learnt Sanskrit, had the Upanishads and the Old and the New Testament translated into Persian and composed a major work of his own called <em>Majma-al-bahrayn </em>(The Meeting Place of the Two Oceans). Thanks to Dara’s efforts the Europeans were for the first time able to access the Upanishads. More generally, Dara’s works were one of the first intellectual links between classical Indian texts and Western philosophers. The German philosopher, Arthur Schopenhauer, was introduced to Sanskrit philosophy courtesy Dara’s works and help spread Sanskrit’s influence in Western thought.\r\nUnfortunately for Dara, his younger brother Aurangzeb was watching with growing interest the Muslim clergy’s concern regarding Dara’s intellectual adventures. In 1657, Shah Jahan fell seriously ill and Aurangzeb moved in for the kill with a group of battle hardened troops. Dara was captured near Agra, paraded half naked in front of the public in Delhi and then shot dead in front of his terrified son.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>V. O. Chidambaram Pillai (1872 – 1936): </strong>In the early twentieth century there was nothing called an independence movement in southern India. VO Chidambaram Pillai, a practicing lawyer in Tuticorin, regarded the radical Bal Gangadhar Tilak as his political mentor. Before the Congress launched the Swadeshi movement in 1906 and a full decade before Mahatma Gandhi entered the Indian stage, Pillai kicked off the Swadeshi movement in south India in remarkable style. Shipping in Tuticorin was dominated by the powerful British India Steam Navigation Company (BI). Pillai created a joint stock company – funded by a broad based group of investors from Bombay, Calcutta and Colombo – and launched a rival shipping line in 1906. Soon, <em>The Hindu</em>, still south India’s leading newspaper, reported keen competition between Pillai’s company – Swadeshi Steam Navigation Company – and BI. In the years to come, BI, with the help of the British administration, derailed Swadeshi Steam but not before the Swadeshi flag – green, yellow and red horizontal stripes with the words “Vande Mataram” inscribed in the middle – was hoisted on these ships. In 1908 the British arrested Pillai for sedition and sentenced him to two life terms in prison. The arrest sparked violence and arson – the Tuticorin courts and Police HQ were set on fire – and the freedom movement was underway in the south. Chidambaram Pillai did hard labour in Cannanore Jail in Malabar making jute and pressing oil for the Crown. In modern day Tuticorin you will be lucky to find anyone who has heard of him.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why do we forget some heroes and remember others?</strong>\r\nOur minds, built as they are for understanding the world rather than remembering it, are especially weak at remembering things which don’t fit into conventional &amp; convenient narratives (see <a href=\"https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/defining-memories/201706/why-we-forget\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/defining-memories/201706/why-we-forget</a>). Malik Ambar’s story does not fit into an stereotypical narrative. As Sunil Khilnani puts it in his outstanding book “Incarnations: India in 50 lives” (2016): “…<em>in the Indian nationalist story…Shivaji was the great resister against the Muslim invaders. Yet with Malik Ambar we have evidence of someone even earlier who took on the Mughals – and whom they could not defeat. He’s not a Hindu. He’s not a native defender some ancient motherland. He’s an Ethiopian opportunist and power-entrepreneur…He doesn’t fit neatly into the standard narrative silos of Indian history – Hindu, Muslim and European.</em>” Similarly, Dara Shukoh neither fits into our stereotype of Mughal royalty nor into the standard narrative we build around our intellectuals.\r\nIn other words, our mind sees/remembers the world in stylised &amp; stereotypical terms. If a story doesn’t fit our stereotype, we don’t remember it and hence don’t celebrate it. This has obvious implications for the world of investing. Our mind struggles to process a real estate developer whose books are clean and whose capital allocation is sensible (even though there are such firms). Equally, our mind also struggles to comprehend a large cap Pharma company whose books are cooked and whose capital allocation is an excuse to pilfer cash. Outsized profits await those who are able to see world without stereotyped lenses.</span></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Heroes we Forget Hold a Mirror to Our Souls', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-heroes-we-forget-hold-a-mirror-to-our-souls', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:00:55', '2019-11-25 05:00:55', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=594', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(505, 1, '2019-02-06 10:56:27', '2019-02-06 10:56:27', '<h1>February 2019</h1>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/bcl_86811965.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click Here</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 10:56:27', '2019-02-06 10:56:27', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(504, 1, '2019-02-06 10:52:23', '2019-02-06 10:52:23', '<h1>February 2019</h1>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/bcl_86811965.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click Here</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_6Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 10:52:23', '2019-02-06 10:52:23', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(506, 1, '2019-02-06 11:21:13', '2019-02-06 11:21:13', 'Published on: Feb, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-511 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '1st Feb 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', 'feb-2019', '', '', '2019-02-08 06:17:37', '2019-02-08 06:17:37', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=506', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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(513, 1, '2019-02-06 11:16:47', '2019-02-06 11:16:47', '', '1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', '1-2', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:16:47', '2019-02-06 11:16:47', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(514, 1, '2019-02-06 11:19:11', '2019-02-06 11:19:11', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-511\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '20 Jan, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:19:11', '2019-02-06 11:19:11', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(520, 1, '2019-02-06 11:40:00', '2019-02-06 11:40:00', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-511\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '20 Jan, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:40:00', '2019-02-06 11:40:00', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(515, 1, '2019-02-06 11:21:13', '2019-02-06 11:21:13', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n<Br>\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-511\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '20 Jan, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:21:13', '2019-02-06 11:21:13', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(538, 1, '2019-02-08 06:17:37', '2019-02-08 06:17:37', 'Published on: Feb, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-511 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '1st Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-08 06:17:37', '2019-02-08 06:17:37', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(523, 1, '2019-02-06 11:49:20', '2019-02-06 11:49:20', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"size-full wp-image-511 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Feb, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:49:20', '2019-02-06 11:49:20', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(517, 1, '2019-02-06 11:25:36', '2019-02-06 11:25:36', '<h1>February 2019</h1>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click Here</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:25:36', '2019-02-06 11:25:36', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(519, 1, '2019-02-06 11:38:34', '2019-02-06 11:38:34', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-511\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '20 Jan, 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:38:34', '2019-02-06 11:38:34', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(521, 1, '2019-02-06 11:40:31', '2019-02-06 11:40:31', '<h4>February 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Feb 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:40:31', '2019-02-06 11:40:31', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(524, 1, '2019-02-06 11:49:26', '2019-02-06 11:49:26', 'Published on: 20 Jan, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"size-full wp-image-511 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:49:26', '2019-02-06 11:49:26', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(525, 1, '2019-02-06 11:52:47', '2019-02-06 11:52:47', 'Published on: Feb, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-511 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 11:52:47', '2019-02-06 11:52:47', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(527, 1, '2019-02-06 14:19:29', '2019-02-06 14:19:29', '<h4>February 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Click here </a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-06 14:19:29', '2019-02-06 14:19:29', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(528, 1, '2019-02-07 06:17:33', '2019-02-07 06:17:33', '<em>Published on: 20 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on devaluation in the role of shareholders, homage to Jack Bogle, robots in Chinese manufacturing, impact of algos on the market and a piece each on the twin architects of India’s historic test series win Down Under.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Plender\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7bbf4e24a&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/42871952-0463-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\nIn this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=97559bc9c5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/fdc1c064-1142-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e</a>)\r\nThe single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“...the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sandeep Dwivedi\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1819f4284e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/i-saw-the-making-of-cheteshwar-pujara-5535781/</a>)\r\nFrom patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Schumpeter column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05372dcbae&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/05/robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war</a>)\r\nEsquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>\r\n\r\n5.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Editorial Board\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a63f2e17b&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/7a2a0aa0-1a5b-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>\r\n\r\n6.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d1bc9b83c1&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/JKMXUSUlexqh6dAYGCn73N/Why-you-gotta-love-Bumrah.html</a>)\r\nRohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery - 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '20 Jan 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '20-jan-2019', '', '', '2019-02-08 05:47:51', '2019-02-08 05:47:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=528', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(530, 1, '2019-02-07 06:19:20', '2019-02-07 06:19:20', '<em>Published on: 20 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on devaluation in the role of shareholders, homage to Jack Bogle, robots in Chinese manufacturing, impact of algos on the market and a piece each on the twin architects of India’s historic test series win Down Under.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Plender\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7bbf4e24a&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/42871952-0463-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\nIn this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=97559bc9c5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/fdc1c064-1142-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e</a>)\r\nThe single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“...the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sandeep Dwivedi\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1819f4284e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/i-saw-the-making-of-cheteshwar-pujara-5535781/</a>)\r\nFrom patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Schumpeter column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05372dcbae&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/05/robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war</a>)\r\nEsquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>\r\n\r\n5.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Editorial Board\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a63f2e17b&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/7a2a0aa0-1a5b-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>\r\n\r\n6.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>  Short read: Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d1bc9b83c1&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/JKMXUSUlexqh6dAYGCn73N/Why-you-gotta-love-Bumrah.html</a>)\r\nRohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery - 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. 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The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n', '20 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '528-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-07 06:19:20', '2019-02-07 06:19:20', '', 528, 'http://marcellus.in/528-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(531, 1, '2019-02-08 05:14:43', '2019-02-08 05:14:43', '<em>Published on: 3rd Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Kotak’s lawsuit against the RBI, impact of tech education on the underprivileged, the post war US economy, Afroz Shah’s devotion for cleaning up our water bodies, cracks in global monetary system and another tech bubble burst.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> 1.Long read: Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sucheta Dalal\r\nSource: Moneylife (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d4f2d0693&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.moneylife.in/article/kotak-lawsuit-will-it-finally-make-rbi-accountable/56171.html</a>)\r\nA pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.Long read: Dharavi Diary - What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ananya Bhattacharya\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=153d0d8c0e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://qz.com/india/1032018/dharavi-diary-what-happens-when-girls-in-one-of-the-worlds-largest-slums-start-coding-and-building-apps/</a>)\r\nPart of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.Long read: How This All Happened</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a2b95c1d5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/how-this-all-happened/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        - What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. Short read: Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Priya Ramani\r\nSource: Mint (<u><a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html</a></u>)\r\nPriya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,\" author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up\" (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,\" he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,\" he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,\" he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.\"</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. Short read: Cracks are opening in the global monetary system</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Russell Napier\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a806f2ee63&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/271f4a2e-17d5-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nPart of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.Short read: Another tech bubble could be about to burst</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rana Foroohar\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7d1612c685&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://on.ft.com/2G473W4</a>)\r\nIn his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>\"this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '3rd Feb 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '3rd-feb-2019', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=531', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(533, 1, '2019-02-08 05:13:46', '2019-02-08 05:13:46', '<em>Published on: 3rd Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Kotak’s lawsuit against the RBI, impact of tech education on the underprivileged, the post war US economy, Afroz Shah’s devotion for cleaning up our water bodies, cracks in global monetary system and another tech bubble burst.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> 1.Long read: Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sucheta Dalal\r\nSource: Moneylife (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d4f2d0693&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.moneylife.in/article/kotak-lawsuit-will-it-finally-make-rbi-accountable/56171.html</a>)\r\nA pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.Long read: Dharavi Diary - What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ananya Bhattacharya\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=153d0d8c0e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://qz.com/india/1032018/dharavi-diary-what-happens-when-girls-in-one-of-the-worlds-largest-slums-start-coding-and-building-apps/</a>)\r\nPart of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.Long read: How This All Happened</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a2b95c1d5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/how-this-all-happened/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        - What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. Short read: Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Priya Ramani\r\nSource: Mint (<u><a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html</a></u>)\r\nPriya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,\" author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up\" (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,\" he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,\" he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,\" he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.\"</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. Short read: Cracks are opening in the global monetary system</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Russell Napier\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a806f2ee63&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/271f4a2e-17d5-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nPart of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.Short read: Another tech bubble could be about to burst</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rana Foroohar\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7d1612c685&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://on.ft.com/2G473W4</a>)\r\nIn his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>\"this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(532, 1, '2019-02-08 05:07:32', '2019-02-08 05:07:32', '<em>Published on: 20 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Kotak’s lawsuit against the RBI, impact of tech education on the underprivileged, the post war US economy, Afroz Shah’s devotion for cleaning up our water bodies, cracks in global monetary system and another tech bubble burst.</strong>\r\n\r\n1.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sucheta Dalal\r\nSource: Moneylife (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d4f2d0693&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.moneylife.in/article/kotak-lawsuit-will-it-finally-make-rbi-accountable/56171.html</a>)\r\nA pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Dharavi Diary - What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ananya Bhattacharya\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=153d0d8c0e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://qz.com/india/1032018/dharavi-diary-what-happens-when-girls-in-one-of-the-worlds-largest-slums-start-coding-and-building-apps/</a>)\r\nPart of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em></em>\r\n\r\n3. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: How This All Happened</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a2b95c1d5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/how-this-all-happened/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        - What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”</strong>\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Priya Ramani\r\nSource: Mint (<u><a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html</a></u>)\r\nPriya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,\" author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up\" (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,\" he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,\" he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,\" he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.\"</em></strong>\r\n\r\n5. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Short read: Cracks are opening in the global monetary system</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Russell Napier\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a806f2ee63&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/271f4a2e-17d5-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nPart of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em></strong>\r\n\r\n>6. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Another tech bubble could be about to burst</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rana Foroohar\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7d1612c685&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://on.ft.com/2G473W4</a>)\r\nIn his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>\"this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em></em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(535, 1, '2019-02-08 05:46:54', '2019-02-08 05:46:54', '<em>Published on: 20 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on devaluation in the role of shareholders, homage to Jack Bogle, robots in Chinese manufacturing, impact of algos on the market and a piece each on the twin architects of India’s historic test series win Down Under.</strong>\r\n\r\n1. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>Long read: Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Plender\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7bbf4e24a&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/42871952-0463-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1</a>)\r\nIn this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.\r\n\r\n2. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=97559bc9c5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/fdc1c064-1142-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e</a>)\r\nThe single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“...the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Long read: I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sandeep Dwivedi\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1819f4284e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/cricket/i-saw-the-making-of-cheteshwar-pujara-5535781/</a>)\r\nFrom patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.\r\n\r\n4. <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Schumpeter column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05372dcbae&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/05/robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war</a>)\r\nEsquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>\r\n\r\n5.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Editorial Board\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a63f2e17b&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/7a2a0aa0-1a5b-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>\r\n\r\n6.<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> Short read: Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d1bc9b83c1&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.livemint.com/Leisure/JKMXUSUlexqh6dAYGCn73N/Why-you-gotta-love-Bumrah.html</a>)\r\nRohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery - 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '20 Jan 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '528-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-02-08 05:46:54', '2019-02-08 05:46:54', '', 528, 'http://marcellus.in/528-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(539, 1, '2019-02-08 06:17:44', '2019-02-08 06:17:44', 'Published on: Feb, 2019\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-513 size-medium\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/1-300x36.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"36\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-511 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"773\" height=\"220\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table and chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-512\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"769\" height=\"411\" />\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-508\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"439\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong><em>‘Consistent Compounders’</em></strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households</strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless drive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8<sup>th</sup> January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to deliver 20-25% earnings CAGR going forward and hence a similar run-rate of performance for our clients for holding periods longer than 3 years. Moreover, given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-509\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"770\" height=\"415\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '1st Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '506-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-02-08 06:17:44', '2019-02-08 06:17:44', '', 506, 'http://marcellus.in/506-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(540, 1, '2019-02-02 06:42:43', '2019-02-02 06:42:43', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 2 Feb, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With potentially $500 billion per annum of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion per annum arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our visits to India’s smaller cities suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade.</span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“We find several attributes of Indian households that are exceptional in the international context. Importantly, these distinctive features of Indian household balance sheets cannot be explained by differences in the demographic characteristics, wealth, or income of Indian households relative to their counterparts in other countries…A large fraction of the wealth of Indian households is in the form of physical assets (in particular, gold and real estate). This is unusual in the international context, and especially unusual for younger households, and for households in the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, i.e., those with the lowest amounts of gross assets…Over the coming decade and a half, the elderly cohort is expected to grow by 75percent. Only a small fraction of this cohort has saved in private pension plans. Moreover, a large segment of the population of households in all age cohorts has not actively taken steps to insure adequate financial coverage during retirement. The need to finance adequate consumption during retirement is therefore a looming issue, and when combined with the low penetration of insurance, households appear particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks later in life.” </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">– <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Report of the Household Finance Committee,RBI,July2017</span></strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">(Source:<a href=\"https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF\">https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF</a>)</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Basic retirement maths…..</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nTo become a SEBI regulated investment advisor one needs to pass two exams. Whilst answering questions for the ‘financial planning for retirement’ module for the second exam, I figured out the retirement maths for a typical Indian upper middle class family.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Assume that such a family currently lives off a post-tax income of Rs 50 lakhs per annum. Assume further that the income earning people in the family have 20 years to go to retirement implying that 20 years hence they will need Rs 3 crores per annum to have the same quality of life (as they do today) post-retirement. To maintain an annual income at this level for a 25-year retirement this family will need to have in (in today’s money) a Rs 15 crore corpus.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">…has devastating implications for most Indians</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nAs we travel around India, raising assets for our portfolio, we can see that in small town India owners of SME businesses have figured out for themselves the devastating implications of the retirement maths outlined above. In particular, they have figured out their land, their property and their gold will not be enough to fund them through retirement - the RBI’s remarkably well researched August 2017 Household Financial Committee report says that 95% of Indian households’ stock of wealth is in physical assets. As everyone in India now knows, physical assets struggle to keep up even with the rate of inflation (and therefore cannot create wealth in real terms). Unfortunately, for these SME owners (and for 99% of other Indians) very few Indian families have the wherewithal to retire with a corpus of Rs 15 crores of financial assets and thus adequately fund a 25-year long upper middle class retirement.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The practical implication of this is that the smaller the town, the quicker the SME owner warms up to our offering. So, using Tamilnadu as an example, a pitch which takes an hour in Chennai, takes 45 minutes in Coimbatore (population: 1.6 million), 40 minutes in Tirrupur (population: 0.8 million) and around 30 minutes in Erode (population: 0.5 million). There are several reasons we believe for this pattern (which we have seen in Maharashtra as well):\r\n• The financialisation of savings has happened to a certain extent in big cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. In smaller cities, most SME owners have only a smattering of financial assets (usually fixed deposits and Life Insurance Company policies).\r\n• The market for residential property and land still has some liquidity in the big cities – at least a few flats are being bought and sold in cities like Mumbai and Chennai. In smaller cities, the market for real estate is completely frozen solid. There have been no deals all year long in several of the smaller cities we have visited.\r\n• The audience which meets us in the bigger cities tends to have a greater proportion of people from white collar professions – people who have a steady income and hence a greater sense of security. In the smaller cities, the audience is overwhelmingly SME owners who have to live by their wits eg. textile traders, spice traders, car dealers, local real estate developers. These people have to live with volatility in their day job and hence crave the security that comes from investing in a relatively predictable financial asset.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Investment implications</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nIf India’s per capita income – which is around US$2000 today – grows at 5% per annum (which is what it has done in the last 10 years) over the next 10 years, the country’s per capita income will be around US$3,300. Assuming a population of 1.5 billion, this gives India a US$5 trillion GDP ten years hence. Assuming further that our household savings rate will stay at broadly 20% a decade out gives us annual household savings of US$1 trillion. At present, roughly half of household savings in India are in financial assets (the rest is in physical). If this ratio persists, then a decade out, annual household savings should be around US$500 billion in India.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, such a figure ignores the balance sheet shift that we highlighted in the opening paras of this note. As SME owners realise that they need to save more through financial rather than physical savings, they will start selling their real estate to invest in financial assets. The question is at what rate will this shift take place? As per RBI data, presently 95% of Indian wealth is in physical assets. If this number drops by 1% point per annum (which is what our reading of the Credit Suisse World Wealth Yearbook suggests) then that implies that around $100 billion per annum could get added to the annual flow into financial savings.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With potentially $500 billion of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our visits to India’s smaller cities suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade (from US$200 billion today to US$600 billion).</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the same period, the Western economies and Japan will age further and their fiscal positions are likely to deteriorate further. As a result, these economies might stop exporting capital and start using their income to fund their retirements and their fiscal imbalances. In parallel, it seems unlikely that India’s stockmarket and its still illiquid bond market can handle the barrage of financial flows which we are foreseeing. That in turn could make India a capital exporter with a per capita income of a mere US$3,300 (to put things in perspective, Sri Lanka’s per capita income today is US$4000). The next generation of foreign investors could thus be Indian fund managers looking for attractive stocks in the world outside India rather than Westerners attending conferences hosted by brokers in the five star hotels of Mumbai.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/ </a></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</span></strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</span></em></p>', 'Marcellus: The Big Shift in Small Town India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-big-shift-in-small-town-india', '', '', '2019-11-18 05:19:07', '2019-11-18 05:19:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=540', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(542, 1, '2019-01-25 07:15:52', '2019-01-25 07:15:52', '<em>Published on: 25 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>80% of the content in Indian newspapers is irrelevant for investors; the other 20% is very useful. The latter 20% focuses on: (a) the actions (not words) of Indian promoters and politicians; and (b) narratives about the majority of Indians whose lives are less comfortable than ours. Furthermore, these narratives suggest that not only are Indian politicians less relevant than potrayed by the media, their impact on the lives of ordinary Indians is often less malign than many imagine it to be.\r\n</strong>\r\n<em>“You do not have to read newspapers for UPSC Prep for the sake of it. You have to read it in a mission mode! Avoid anything on Politics, Sports, Entertainment. Avoid making notes in the first reading – you are likely to find everything important and create a parallel newspress of your own! Remember that newspapers are written with a very specific formula: the who, what, when, where, why, and how always come first. As an IAS Aspirant, you are required to focus on the underlying theme or issue rather than specific newsbytes..” </em>– <strong>From ‘3 Key Points on How to Read Newspapers for Indian Administrative Services Prep’ </strong>(Source: <a href=\"https://www.civilsdaily.com/how-to-read-newspapers-for-upsc/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.civilsdaily.com/how-to-read-newspapers-for-upsc/</a>)\r\n\r\nMost people under 40 who have a job no longer seem to read newspapers; basically, only people who grew up before the mid-1990s read newspapers. As a result at Marcellus only the forty-something people read newspapers. Leaving aside age, another reason very few of our colleagues read newspapers is that 80% of the content in Indian newspapers has little relevance for investors. Even those of us who read newspapers find that most Indian newspapers can be read cover to cover in less than ten minutes. There are three notable exceptions to this which are discussed below. Before we get to those glorious exceptions, it is worth highlighting why one can skim most of the content which appears in Indian newspapers.\r\n\r\nOne can safely discount what politicians and promoters are saying – most of what they say they don’t actually mean. So when a promoter says that “I am committed to investing in the India story” it does not mean very much and certainly does not mean that he’s actually getting reading to commit capital expenditure. This also applies when the promoter says negative things such as “I am increasingly worried about the rising level of regulatory intervention in India.” Such discounts can also be applied to what politicians (of all shades) are saying. Most people who are promoters, CEOs or politicians rarely say what they mean and they certainly don’t mean what they say. That means you can skip 50% of the printed matter in Indian newspapers.\r\n\r\nNext - unless you are interested in restaurants, electronic gadgets, film stars, holiday destinations, Virat Kohli’s latest century and yoga tips – you can skip another 20% of a typical Indian newspaper.\r\n\r\nThen come the Op-ed columns which with very rare exceptions contains views from sundry members of the Indian elite. These are typically upper crust people with elite education and/or a career in upper echelons of either the Indian civil service or a well known company. They are more clued into what is happening in London or New York than in Dhanbad or Dhanaulti. Often they reside full time in London or New York whereas it is highly unlikely that they will ever visit Dhanbad or Dhanaulti. Their default world view is that India is going from bad to worse thanks to greed &amp; corruption. If you read too many op-eds in Indian newspapers you will be convinced that the country should have fallen apart five days after the British left the natives to their own devices.\r\n\r\nThat brings us to the final 20% of the Indian paper which is worth focusing on, namely:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>1. What are politicians doing? Who are they meeting – at home and abroad – and where are they spending their time? If a prominent national politician goes to a state capital to meet a regional politician then he’s sending a far more important message than a speech or a press statement. If a regional politician meets another regional counterpart then that is a more eloquent statement than any loan waiver announcement will ever be. If a politician repeatedly allows himself to be photographed at places of worship and/or with clergymen then that is more revealing than a speech in the Union Budget. If a minister’s wife’s name shows up on the shareholder register of a company then that is a more powerful statement than any policy announcement. Actions speak deafeningly louder than the words uttered by Indian politicians (which are often meaningless and sometimes incoherent). For both politicians and promoters, we tend to pay more attention to their actions rather than their spoken words because “nothing ever happens in India for no good reason”.</em></li>\r\n 	<li> <em>2. What are promoters doing? Are they selling or pledging their assets or shares in the companies they own? Or are they acquiring? IF they are selling it is worth trying to understand why they are selling? If they are buying – even if it is a mansion for their personal use or a stake in a start-up – that is a more useful bull signal than any amount of blather in a quarterly earnings call. Actions speak much louder than words for promoters and the Indian newspapers do a good job of reporting what promoters (and their SPVs) are up to.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>3. Narratives from the bottom are far more revealing and far more useful than narratives regarding the urban elite’s struggle with traffic jams, air pollution and university places. Here are three examples of telling narratives in Indian newspapers about the people who make up 80% of India’s population:</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>In mid-January the Business Standard published a story on how climate change is impacting fishermen in the fishing town Kakdwip in West Bengal: <em>“In the last six months, 37 fishermen have lost their lives while fishing in the Bay of Bengal. In the last ten years, the death toll from fishing stands at 165. Most of the deaths took place in August and September…the intensity of storms in the Bay of Bengal has risen significantly over the years…‘Over the past decade, we have witnessed increasing number of serious cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Normally, it is seen that after a storm makes landfall, its intensity falls. But over time, we have witnessed that that this intensity is not slowing. The overall size of the cyclone has also increased. As oceans become warmer, they conserve more energy to sustain a cyclone’ says Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran, head of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture at IIT Kanpur.…Last year…by the time weather alerts reached the fishermen, they were already in the midst of the storm in the sea. The rescue boats could reach the site only after almost 36 years past the mishap…fisherman in West Bengal were dependent upon weather prediction forecasts from Bangladesh until last year, as weather forecasts from India came very late.”</em> (Source: (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/unpredictable-weather-dwindling-catch-drive-fishermen-into-choppy-waters-119011200720_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/unpredictable-weather-dwindling-catch-drive-fishermen-into-choppy-waters-119011200720_1.html</a>)</li>\r\n 	<li>The elite’s narrative on Chhattisgarh is that it is a Naxalite infested place where progress is patchy. In reality, not only has Chhattisgarh been one of India’s fastest growing states in the past five years, it’s hinterland is also beginning to recover. This Indian Express story from a year ago captures the spirit of the renaissance:<em> “Nearly every district headquarters in Chhattisgarh has a “mini-stadium”, used for cricket and football. In May last year, the administration of Bijapur, among the districts worst affected by left-wing violence in the country, decided to build in one such mini-stadium the Bijapur Sports Academy. Eight months later, it has over 240 students, training in 10 sports, under head coaches accredited by the Sports Authority of India (SAI). Of them, 17 have made it to the national level and four have won medals. At the state level, the medals tally of Bijapur Sports Academy trainees stands at 45….”</em>  (Source: <a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/in-the-heart-of-maoist-land-in-chhattisgarh-an-academy-shapes-sports-champions-5042939/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/in-the-heart-of-maoist-land-in-chhattisgarh-an-academy-shapes-sports-champions-5042939/</a>\r\n)</li>\r\n 	<li>The Indian labour market is poorly understood not just by the urban elite but also by labour economists. Last week the Mint published a long article containing an outstanding analysis of the Indian labour market: <em>“Migration for work within India is highly circular, with migrants working in multiple destinations during their lifetimes, and retiring in their native places. As per the Economic Survey of India 2016-17, there are over a hundred million migrant workers in India, of which most are circular migrants. The durations can be as short as a day or a week, in which case they are referred to as commuters, numbering in the tens of millions…A few more tens of millions migrate seasonally for work—for a few months of the year, drawn disproportionately from the Scheduled Castes and Tribes and from particular clusters in central India….These migrations are brokered by contractors, often tied with debt, and studies have documented difficult prospects of upward mobility….In a recently published book, India Moving: A History of Migration, I have argued that the great Indian migration wave of semi-permanent, male-dominated, and remittance-based migration is the world’s largest and longest voluntary stream of migration….”</em>  (Source: <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Politics/8WPPsZygqR7Mu6e3Fgy55N/A-million-migrations-Journeys-in-search-of-jobs.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.livemint.com/Politics/8WPPsZygqR7Mu6e3Fgy55N/A-million-migrations-Journeys-in-search-of-jobs.html</a>\r\n)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIf you consume the output spewed out by India’s many media outlets in a conventional manner you are more likely than not conclude (incorrectly we believe) that the country is heading in the wrong direction. This is because the media consists of people like you and me whose view implicitly references India against the West or with cities like Singapore, London and New York. If on the other hand you read the Indian media selectively with a particular focus on narratives about the 80-90% of Indians whose lives are nowhere as comfortable as ours a very different picture of the country emerges. Whilst life is unrelentingly tough in this other India, the underlying trends seems to be in an upward direction regardless of which political party is ruling the roost. This upward trend seems to hold true even in states perceived as backward, notably, the Hindi speaking belt.\r\n\r\nSimilarly if you read promoter or CEO-speak in the Indian media, you are likely to conclude that without more reforms the economy cannot move forward; this is the persistent refrain of India Inc and the media has played-up this line for as long as we have been alive. And yet, the same promoters are investing in Indian start-ups, in Indian private equity funds and (still) buying upscale residences for themselves in Mumbai or in the countryside. The politicians through their family offices are also making similar investments albeit a little bit more discreetly. Hence it makes sense to ignore much of what these people say and instead focus on their actions.\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: A Cynic’s Guide to Reading Indian Newspapers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-a-cynics-guide-to-reading-indian-newspapers', '', '', '2019-11-20 07:06:15', '2019-11-20 07:06:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=542', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(543, 1, '2019-01-11 07:47:46', '2019-01-11 07:47:46', '<em>Published on: 11 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Any activity which entails making a call on the future is as much about managing emotions as it is about rational analysis. Investing therefore is always and everywhere a dance between these two elements – reason &amp; emotion. We find that spirituality (i.e. reducing clutter in our lives, increasing focus on deep work, meditating, actively dealing with emotions) makes it easier to balance these two facets of the human mind.</strong>\r\n\r\n“I see all this potential, and I see it squandered. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables - slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don\'t need. We\'re the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our great war is a spiritual war... Our great depression is our lives. We\'ve all been raised on television to believe that one day we\'d all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars, but we won\'t. We\'re slowly learning that fact. And we\'re very, very pissed off.” – <strong>Tyler Durden in the movie ‘Fight Club’ (1999)</strong> [underling is ours]\r\n\r\n<strong>Spirituality balances the emotional and the rational</strong>\r\nWhilst investing we have to make choices from a sea of possibilities. To make these decisions we usually have data on hand to analyse. And then we have to make a probabilistic call about the future which is as much emotional as it is rational. It is impossible to make a decision which is just based on numbers because for tomorrow’s world there we have no numbers, no “future facts”.\r\n\r\nFor example, when you see the sunset from a beach shack in Goa, part of you absorbs the facts regarding the natural phenomenon (time, temperature, the colour of the water, etc.). But another part of you appreciates the beauty of the spectacle and loves the changing mood of the day as night falls on the beach.\r\n\r\nSimilarly, in our professional lives too we react to most events (the performance of my portfolio, my bonus, the financial statements of a company that I have invested in, etc.) at both a factual/rational level and at an emotional level. Our academic and professional training, for the most part, is geared to help us deal only with our rational response to such stimuli.\r\n\r\nOur decisions therefore have to balance the emotional and the rational. Spirituality helps with that balance by preventing our emotions from completely overtaking our decision making. In high stress situation, spirituality helps us deal with anxiety and, specifically, preventing anxiety from paralysing our thinking. My friend Anupam Gupta and I have written a column for The Ken on this subject – click here for the same: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/the-spirituality-of-simplicity/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/the-spirituality-of-simplicity/</a>. Some of the concepts from this column are discussed below.\r\n\r\n<strong>Three areas where a spiritual approach helps</strong>\r\n<strong>Dealing with clutter:</strong> Our manic obsession with buying things we don’t need has cluttered our physical spaces with useless items. And mentally, we are no better off, with the clutter of distractions from social media to the Bloomberg terminal when we know we have a one-hour deadline. Then there’s the clutter of fruitless relationships and the time we spend with people that draw down our energy reserves. The more you pack into your life/day, the greater the risk that you suffer from cognitive overload; your intellectual abilities are then compromised.\r\n\r\nThe spiritual approach to this is to place greater value on the well-being of our inner self, prioritising those possessions and relationships that truly matter to you. It’s a philosophy that has been espoused repeatedly over the ages. Chuck Palahniuk famously wrote, “The things you own ending up owning you”. Stoicism, a school of Ancient Greek philosophy, speaks of frugality. And there\'s scientific evidence to highlight the importance of what really moves the needle with regards to our well-being - meaningful relationships.\r\n\r\nThe Harvard Study of Adult Development - one of the world\'s longest studies of adult life, spanning nearly 80 years – has thrown up some startling findings. Robert Waldinger, director of the study, summarises these findings as follows: “The surprising finding is that our relationships and how happy we are in our relationships has a powerful influence on our health. Taking care of your body is important, but tending to your relationships is a form of self-care too. That, I think, is the revelation.” (Source: <a href=\"https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/04/over-nearly-80-years-harvard-study-has-been-showing-how-to-live-a-healthy-and-happy-life/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/04/over-nearly-80-years-harvard-study-has-been-showing-how-to-live-a-healthy-and-happy-life/</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>Actively dealing with emotions:</strong> “Men are not afraid of things, but of how they view them,” the Greek philosopher Epictetus said centuries ago. We have to deal with our fears and our anxieties in a constructive, practical, clear-headed manner. For example, if as an equity analyst, I am anxious about my portfolio’s exposure to the Pharma sector, I needs to get to the bottom of this anxiety. Is it because I don’t understand the chemistry underpinning these company’s products? Or is it because I haven’t spent enough time understanding the sector?\r\n\r\nRay Dalio says in his book ‘Principles: Life and Work’ that “The most valuable habit I’ve acquired is using pain to trigger quality reflections. If you can acquire this habit, you will learn what causes you pain and what you can do about it, and it will have an enormous effect on your effectiveness.”\r\n\r\n<strong>Achieving deep focus:</strong> Achieving peak performance is pure joy; it also involves deep, almost extreme focus and overcoming huge challenges. From intense physical training to long hours of focused work, almost any goal that’s worth achieving will require inhuman effort.\r\n\r\nIn the end, hitting this peak is immensely rewarding. In our experience, the work we put into researching a company requires deep focus—and it is not always rewarding (if it was then everybody in the world would slogging away doing extensive research on companies). While we spend hours analysing annual reports and travelling to gather primary data, the market might just not care for our effort.\r\n\r\nFor many years, the stock price of that company might not go anywhere. This is the pain and self-doubt that we have to endure. But when one of our investments proves us right, our reward is more than just the profits we make—it’s also the emotional payoff that comes from having weathered the pain and reaching our goal.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n1. Balancing the emotional and the rational is most critical when a watershed event (eg. a stunning General Election result) or a crisis (eg. a major terrorist atrocity involving a high profile target) takes place. There is a high chance that in such circumstances the stockmarket will react emotionally (as investors’ emotions will trump over their reason). Share price overreaction in such circumstances is almost inevitable. If we are able to stay calm in such situations, we will be able to spot opportunities others can’t.\r\n2. The same point is applicable in the case of company-specific news – shockingly good or bad results are likely to lead to share price overreaction. Investors who stay calm in such situations can profit.\r\n3. Ray Dalio says that meditation helps him stay calm and think clearly under pressure. Jason Voss, another successful investor, says in his book ‘The Intuitive Investor’ that “Meditation is a natural state of mind that occurs when the egoic mind is diminished or turned off.” According to Voss, “egoic mind means the state of mind where a sense of “I”, or a sense of separateness from the interconnectedness of the universe exists.” From an investor’s perspective, the benefits of meditation, according to Voss are that allows you “access to creativity, intuition and wealth manifestation. Exploration of this topic opens up an entirely new world, one rich with skills for making you richer.” In other words, by subduing your ego and your sense of self, meditation allows more creative thoughts to bubble up to the forefront of your mind.\r\n4. Dealing with management teams and especially with overbearing promoters is as much an exercise in managing ones emotions as it is about understanding the company’s fundamentals. It is exactly in such circumstances that our ability to strike a balance between the fundamentals of the company and the personality of the promoter comes into play. The latter cannot be allowed to override the former even if the promoter is our best friend, or more likely, a client of ours.\r\n5. Getting rid of distractions at work (such as newsfeeds, networking events, long meetings) helps reduce mental clutter, improves clarity of thought and helps one make more balanced decisions.\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Does Spirituality Help Improve Clarity of Thought?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-does-spirituality-help-improve-clarity-of-thought', '', '', '2019-11-19 05:46:22', '2019-11-19 05:46:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=543', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(565, 1, '2019-02-17 10:40:06', '2019-02-17 10:40:06', '<em>Published on: 17th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n<div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on tribal identity, the science behind junk food addiction, India’s new IT law, the two types of office workers, the lack of evidence for brain training and frugal living.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Tribal World – Group Identity is All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Chua\r\nSource: Foreign Affairs (<a href=\"https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world\">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Moss\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. <em>“What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”</em>\r\n<em>“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….</em>\r\n<em>...one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…</em>\r\n<em>….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”</em>\r\n<em>“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..</em>\r\n<em>….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”</em>\r\n<em>….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: India Proposes Chinese-Style Internet Censorship</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vindu Goel</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">Source: The New York Times(<u><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html</a></u>)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Indian Government’s proposed amendment to the IT act to regulate content on social media and messaging platforms has triggered a roaring debate among tech companies to freedom-of-speech activists to political parties. Whilst the headline of this NYT piece might have gone too far in comparing it with China (several countries including those from the west have implemented rules to various degrees in this direction), it does raise questions given the timing of the law – weeks before what will undoubtedly be a crucial general election from the perspective of the country’s long term political future.\r\n<em>“…Under the proposed rules, Indian officials could demand that Facebook, Google, Twitter, TikTok and others remove posts or videos that they deem libelous, invasive of privacy, hateful or deceptive. Internet companies would also have to build automated screening tools to block Indians from seeing “unlawful information or content.” Another provision would weaken the privacy protections of messaging services like WhatsApp so that the authorities could trace messages back to their original senders…. </em>\r\n<em>… “The proposed changes have an authoritarian bent,” said Apar Gupta, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital rights group, which plans to challenge the rules in court if they are enacted. “This is very similar to what China does to its citizens, where it polices their every move and tracks their every post on social media.” India’s proposals add to the growing resistance worldwide against internet behemoths like Google and Facebook, which once flourished largely unimpeded. In Europe, officials last year enacted tough new rules to protect people’s online data, forcing the companies to change some practices. China has long used a system of internet filters, known as the Great Firewall, to block content and shut out global tech companies. And in a 2017 review, The New York Times tallied more than 50 countries that had passed laws in recent years to gain greater control over how their people use the web…..</em>\r\n<em>…In a filing with the ministry last week, Microsoft said that complying with India’s new standards would be “impossible from the process, legal and technology point of view.” The company — whose Hyderabad-born chief executive, Satya Nadella, is a business icon in India — said the proposal lumped together all intermediaries, as varied as social networks and Wi-Fi hot spots, even though each has a different level of control over content that flows through it. In the filing, Microsoft said it would be difficult to screen out gambling content, as the rules would require. Filtering the full range of content demanded by the government would not only violate privacy and freedom of expression, the company wrote, but would also be so challenging that “the cost of even attempting compliance will be prohibitive.”</em>\r\n<em> “WhatsApp cares deeply about creating a space for private conversations online,” Carl Woog, a company spokesman, said at a news conference in New Delhi. He said the proposed rules “would require us to re-architect WhatsApp, leading to a different product, one that would not be fundamentally private.”</em>\r\n<em>….Indian authorities are struggling to deal with inflammatory messages that spread on social platforms. They shut down the entire internet in 2017 in the state of Punjab just before a popular spiritual guru was convicted on rape charges. That did not stop his followers from flooding the streets, and at least 30 people died in the violence.</em>\r\n<em>… One of the biggest cheerleaders for the new rules was Reliance Jio, a fast-growing mobile phone company controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest industrialist. Mr. Ambani, an ally of Mr. Modi, has made no secret of his plans to turn Reliance Jio into an all-purpose information service that offers streaming video and music, messaging, money transfer, online shopping, and home broadband services.</em>\r\n<em>In a filing last week, Reliance Jio said the new rules were necessary to combat “miscreants” and urged the government to ignore free-speech protests. The company also said that encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp, “although perceivably beneficial to users, are detrimental to national interest and hence should not be allowed.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>      </strong><strong>Short read: The two tribes of working life</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Bartleby column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined</a>)\r\nOffice goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: <a name=\"_Hlk536354400\"></a>Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b\">https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n<em>“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia...</em>\r\n<em>Til Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.</em>\r\n<em>Her dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: The Biggest Returns</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: The Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n<em>“</em><em>The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…</em>\r\n<em>…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….</em>\r\n<em>…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>Investment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.</em>\r\n<em>If we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…</em>\r\n<em>….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.</em>\r\n<em>Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book </em><em>Enough</em> with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\n<em>At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”</em>\r\n<em>Enough</em><em>. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', '17th Feb 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '17th-feb-2019', '', '', '2019-02-17 10:40:06', '2019-02-17 10:40:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=565', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(545, 1, '2019-01-18 10:58:56', '2019-01-18 10:58:56', '<em>Published on: 18 Jan, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Intensely researched, well thought through non-consensus opinions are priceless. VS Naipaul’s final book on India is an example of such work. Meticulously researched, Naipaul’s 1990 book flagged that India was a country on the move and on the make. At a time when the norm was to berate India for its many  failures, Naipaul had the courage and the conviction to tell the world that India was healing after seven hundred years of subjugation.    </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Now there were many revolutions within that revolution…All over India scores of particularities that had been frozen by foreign rule, or by poverty or lack of opportunity or abjectness had begun to flow again.” </em>– <strong>VS Naipaul in ‘India: A Million Mutinies Now’ </strong>(1990)\r\n\r\n<strong>Naipaul was a special talent….</strong>\r\nIn last week’s piece we discussed how we as investors need to balance the rational and the emotional especially since most of our formal training focuses on analysing rational inputs whilst ignoring the emotional stimuli that all of us are being relentlessly subjected to. Nobel Laureate VS Naipaul’s great strength was that as an accomplished author of fiction &amp; non-fiction books (a rare combination) his senses were as tuned into emotional stimuli as they were to rational facts &amp; figures.\r\n\r\nSir Vidiadhar Surajprasad Naipaul (1932-2018), although a Trinidadian by birth and British by nationality understood India in a way few foreigners can, both, because of his family’s Indian origins (he grandfather had migrated from India to Trinidad as an indentured labourer) and because of his repeated trips to India. The combination of all this gave birth to a remarkable book in 1990 - ‘India: A Million Mutinies Now’. The book not only not only foresaw India’s economic rebirth and social churn in the coming 20 years, it was and remains the most accurate, the most revealing narrative of India ever written, as relevant today as it was in 1990.\r\n\r\n<strong>….and produced a special book</strong>\r\nOver the course of 1988 &amp; 1989, Naipaul travelled across India, starting in Mumbai and then moving in an anti-clockwise direction across the country, eventually ending up in Kashmir. During the journey he met and interviewed criminal gang leaders in Bombay, Hindu and Muslim extremists, a leader of the Dalit Panthers, Naxalites and their police torturers in Chennai, Sikh terrorists, stockbrokers, government clerks, politicians, filmmakers and, of course, god men. The interviews with these men are interesting but by itself the content of the interviews would not surprise “natives” of India.\r\n\r\nThe astounding thing is how Naipaul joined up these interviews to produce conclusions that no one else had ever come up with. Even though most of the people he met give him the standard Indian bylines – that \"India had changed; it was not the good and stable country it had once been\"; that \"the great investment in development over three or four decades had led only to this: to \'corruption,\' to the \'criminalization of politics\' – Naipaul joined the dots very differently. His takeaway (which is as relevant today as it was in 1990) is:\r\n\r\n<em>“The book was dedicated to a further idea: that India was, in the simplest way, on the move; that all over the vast country, men and women had moved out of the cramped ways and expectations of their parents and grandparents, and were expecting more. This was the \"million mutinies\" of the title…’</em> – VS Naipaul [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul/</a>\r\n\r\nThis core point of the book was that a mighty country was on the move, a fractured land had been able to over the last hundred years, with steady acceleration, define and regenerate itself. This message has several facets which are teased out in the book, for example the rise of the Dalits, the rise of feminism, the willingness of Indians to migrate from one part of the country to another in search of a higher incomes, the aspirations of small businessmen to build something bigger, the flaming out of Naxalism, etc. Consider the following paragraph (from Chapter 3 of the book):\r\n<em>“People had a little bit more money now. It showed in the Karnataka countryside on the road to Goa. Indian poverty was still visible…But the fields, of sugar-cane and cotton and other crops, looked rich and well-tended; the village houses were often neat with plastered walls and red-tile roofs. There was nothing like the destitution I had seen 26 years before…”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Why was Naipaul able to see what no one else could?</strong>\r\nWhether in 1990 or in 2020, the standard view on India – given by residents and visitors, Indians and non-Indians – is that things are falling apart, that progress is glacial, that the country is riven by corruption, that democracy is a massive drag on development, that India for all its promise will ultimately not amount to much, etc.\r\n\r\nNaipaul was able to come up with a non-consensus view on India through a mixture of skill and hard work. Writing in 2007, when India was being celebrated as a boom country, he says:\r\n<em>“This seems a reasonable thing to say now, in 2007, at the time of an acknowledged Indian boom. It was different in 1988, when I began the book. India was full of a pietistic Gandhian gloom, self-satisfied and rather happy as this kind of gloom often is in India. The talk among the talkers in the towns was of degeneracy, a falling away from the standards of earlier times: politics were being criminalised, and there was corruption everywhere. Standard stuff, not profound, not based on any real knowledge of the country; but it could undermine one. It was the background against which I worked out my idea of the mutinies... The idea didn\'t come to me out of the air. I had done a lot of hard travelling in India in the past 26 years…I had picked up a more varied knowledge of the country than most Indians, who were bound to their families and jobs. I had spent many weeks in the districts, away from the big towns…”</em> [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul</a>]\r\n\r\nAlongside his highly developed powers of observation (honed in the prior decades by writing books on Africa and South America based on extensive travels in those continents) his sheer hard work helped Naipaul perceive India in a way no one else ever had even though he was an outsider. As a result, Naipaul had all the information of an insider with few of the biases and prejudices which insiders have. In his words, <em>“…I had to deal first of all with my ancestral land, India. I was not an insider, even after many months of travel; nor could I consider myself an outsider: India and the idea of India had always been important to me. So I was always divided about India, and found it hard to say a final word.”</em> [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul</a>]\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications </strong>\r\nIf we can bring to the table even 50% of the skill, the informed perspective and sheer industry that VS Naipaul had, we should be able to come up with uniquely valuable insights. In the context of our lives, our takeaways from Naipaul’s method of investigation is:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The superficial aspects of what makes a company unique can be understood in a few hours but it takes months, sometimes years, of research to understand what is the real sustainable competitive advantage of a company.\r\n2. We have to go off the beaten trail and dig deeper than others if we aspire to uncover fresh perspectives. So it is not just good enough to meet customers, suppliers and distributors of listed companies, we have to find even more unique perspectives on listed companies. Drinks &amp; dinner with the retired CEO of a rival company might provide more useful insights that the usual channel checks that most investors now conduct.</li>\r\n 	<li>When we do meet the usual suspects (company management, customers, suppliers and distributors of listed companies) we have to ask ourselves whether there are alternative ways to join the dots. So, if for example, our sources are saying that the “two wheeler market is saturated”, it might well be that the purchasing power of a key customer segment is maxed out for now rather than demand being satiated in the market.</li>\r\n 	<li>Rather than repeatedly making the same analyst in our team – the so called ‘sector expert’ – opine on that sector, we are better off by asking analysts to rotate across sectors so that we get the insider-outsider perspective that Naipaul had.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have to recognise that there is no substitute for experience. However, bright we might be, we can’t possibly understand HDFC Bank better than someone who is as bright as us, works as hard us as but has known HDFC Bank for twice as long. So dollops are humility are called for as we navigate our portfolios through the Indian market.</li>\r\n 	<li>And finally, we at Marcellus have to be cognisant that we too are one of India’s million mutinies. Not only are we a “challenger” firm, we are part of a generation that is challenging preconceived notions of India inside and outside the country. As a gentleman called Pravas tells Naipaul in Chapter 3 of the book: <em>“My son will go through a very large change in circumstances in many ways. In the family, in the school surroundings, in the job market, everywhere. I grew up in a half ritualistic background. My son will have no ritualistic background…There will be many like him. Society is moving that way.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<em>If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></em>\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Marcellus: Reading VS Naipaul Will Make You Richer', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-reading-vs-naipaul-will-make-you-richer', '', '', '2019-11-20 07:29:43', '2019-11-20 07:29:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=545', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1992, 1, '2019-10-23 10:57:09', '2019-10-23 10:57:09', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 15 March, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The majority of us spend our lives seeking the approval of others. A few people however have the courage to do things which they know will invite criticism. This rare characteristic - which is often the hallmark of successful investors – seems to be dependent on how we structure our relationships.  </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Freedom is being disliked by other people. It is proof that you are exercising your freedom and living in freedom, and a sign that you are living in accordance with your own principles. Conducting yourself in such a way as not be disliked by anyone is an extremely unfree way of living.”</em> – <strong>Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga in ‘The Courage to be Disliked” </strong>(2013)</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The courage to invite criticism</strong>\nIn a young country like India, which remains for the most part a caste-bound hierarchical society, most people attach great value to fitting in. So, you are not supposed to say or do things which make you stand out from the crowd. And you are certainly not supposed to do things which invite criticism or ridicule. Thus it is hard to imagine an Indian fund manager doing what Warren Buffett did on 25<sup>th </sup>February - four days after Kraft Heinz took a US$15billion writedown and slashed its dividend, Buffett said on CNBC, <em>“I was wrong in a couple of ways on Kraft Heinz…We overpaid for Kraft.”</em> This admission of failure triggered a wave of criticism directed at Buffett (including this fine piece from John Gapper of the FT: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-courage-to-be-disliked/\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-courage-to-be-disliked/</a>\n).</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What we find more interesting than Kraft Heinz’s plight is Buffett’s courage in owning up to an error of judgement. He could have easily said “Look, I manage such a massive cash pile and do so many deals that an error here or there is not a big deal.” However, he did not do that. He did not hide behind his cashpile. In his perceptive 28<sup>th</sup> February 2019 piece, Morgan Housel delved deeper into this facet of Buffett’s personality:</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said.</em>\n<em>“You know why I think you’re the richest man in the world?” he told Buffett. “I think you’re getting paid back for being willing to appear foolish on a scale that probably that no one in history has ever been willing to appear before. Billions of people watching you, year after year goes by, yet you don’t mind appearing foolish…”” [Source: <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>]  </em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why the courage to be disliked is an invaluable trait?</strong>\nAs Housel puts it, each year the pool of people chasing returns in the market is becoming larger, brighter and better informed. So IQ and effort per se is not going to differentiate any one investor from the millions of other aspirants. The differentiation, and hence the outperformance comes from something else. In Housel’s words:\n<em>“One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is…not minding what happens…You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry.</em>\n<em>There are two drivers of enduring investment performance:</em></span></em>\n<ul>\n 	<li><em>Doing something others don’t.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to.</em></li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em></span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li><em>Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber…</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio…</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind…</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events...”</em></li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">[To read more about this line of thought, you might want to read our blog on Cassius Marcellus Clay aka Muhammad Ali: <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>\n]</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why do so few people have the courage to be disliked?</strong>\nSo, if being disliked can help us make money, why do so few fund managers have the courage to be disliked? Why is consensus/benchmark hugging the norm? To understand this we turn to a remarkable book by two Japanese authors – Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga. Their book ‘The Courage to be Disliked’ (2013) is a philosophical discourse based on the work of Austrian psychologist, Alfred Adler. Everybody who makes decisions under pressure and with imperfect information should read this remarkable book which has sold over three million copies.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The challenge starts early on in life as we start living life to fulfill other people’s expectations. Initially, we seek to fulfill our parents’ expectations, then our friends’. Soon we are seeking the approval of our social set and our colleagues. By the time we are grown-up professionals, our happiness hinges around seeking the approval of others. Obviously, that makes it very hard to do something along the lines of Buffett’s Kraft-Heinz <em>mea culpa</em>.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The book calls one-way relationships, where our happiness depends on the approval of others (eg. our parents at home, our teachers in school or our bosses at work) “vertical relationships”. These are distinct from two-way relationships which are relationships between equals. The book calls these “horizontal relationships”. People whose lives are characterised by more horizontal relationships than vertical relationships are more likely to have the courage to be disliked. Why? Because in a vertical relationship your happiness hinges on the happiness of the person you are subservient to. As a result, you live for praise/approval from her. That in turn makes it very difficult for you to do anything which could invite disapproval or criticism from her. Those who see the world as largely consisting of relationships between equals are less likely to make the happiness of others a key driver of their decisions.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the authors put it: <em>“It is because you are living in vertical relationships that you want to be praised…If you are building even one vertical relationship with someone, before you even notice what is happening, you will be treating all your interpersonal relationships as vertical….The feeling of inferiority arises within vertical relationships. If you can build horizontal relationships that are “equal but not the same” for all people, there will no longer be any room for inferiority complexes to emerge.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The book also delves into another driver of happiness/self-worth (and hence the courage to be disliked): our sense of how much we are contributing to the world around us, <em>“If you really have a feeling of contribution, you will no longer have any need for recognition from others…People who have so much money that they could never use it all work so that they are able to contribute to others…No matter what moments you are living, or if there are people who dislike you, as long as you do not lose sight of the guiding star of “I contribute to others”, you will not lose your way, and you can do whatever you like.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n', 'Marcellus: The Courage to be Disliked', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '644-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 10:57:09', '2019-10-23 10:57:09', '', 644, 'http://marcellus.in/644-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(547, 1, '2019-10-23 10:31:29', '2019-10-23 10:31:29', '<em>Published on: 25 Jan, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>80% of the content in Indian newspapers is irrelevant for investors; the other 20% is very useful. The latter 20% focuses on: (a) the actions (not words) of Indian promoters and politicians; and (b) narratives about the majority of Indians whose lives are less comfortable than ours. Furthermore, these narratives suggest that not only are Indian politicians less relevant than potrayed by the media, their impact on the lives of ordinary Indians is often less malign than many imagine it to be.\n</strong>\n<em>“You do not have to read newspapers for UPSC Prep for the sake of it. You have to read it in a mission mode! Avoid anything on Politics, Sports, Entertainment. Avoid making notes in the first reading – you are likely to find everything important and create a parallel newspress of your own! Remember that newspapers are written with a very specific formula: the who, what, when, where, why, and how always come first. As an IAS Aspirant, you are required to focus on the underlying theme or issue rather than specific newsbytes..” </em>– <strong>From ‘3 Key Points on How to Read Newspapers for Indian Administrative Services Prep’ </strong>(Source: <a href=\"https://www.civilsdaily.com/how-to-read-newspapers-for-upsc/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.civilsdaily.com/how-to-read-newspapers-for-upsc/</a>)\n\nMost people under 40 who have a job no longer seem to read newspapers; basically, only people who grew up before the mid-1990s read newspapers. As a result at Marcellus only the forty-something people read newspapers. Leaving aside age, another reason very few of our colleagues read newspapers is that 80% of the content in Indian newspapers has little relevance for investors. Even those of us who read newspapers find that most Indian newspapers can be read cover to cover in less than ten minutes. There are three notable exceptions to this which are discussed below. Before we get to those glorious exceptions, it is worth highlighting why one can skim most of the content which appears in Indian newspapers.\n\nOne can safely discount what politicians and promoters are saying – most of what they say they don’t actually mean. So when a promoter says that “I am committed to investing in the India story” it does not mean very much and certainly does not mean that he’s actually getting reading to commit capital expenditure. This also applies when the promoter says negative things such as “I am increasingly worried about the rising level of regulatory intervention in India.” Such discounts can also be applied to what politicians (of all shades) are saying. Most people who are promoters, CEOs or politicians rarely say what they mean and they certainly don’t mean what they say. That means you can skip 50% of the printed matter in Indian newspapers.\n\nNext - unless you are interested in restaurants, electronic gadgets, film stars, holiday destinations, Virat Kohli’s latest century and yoga tips – you can skip another 20% of a typical Indian newspaper.\n\nThen come the Op-ed columns which with very rare exceptions contains views from sundry members of the Indian elite. These are typically upper crust people with elite education and/or a career in upper echelons of either the Indian civil service or a well known company. They are more clued into what is happening in London or New York than in Dhanbad or Dhanaulti. Often they reside full time in London or New York whereas it is highly unlikely that they will ever visit Dhanbad or Dhanaulti. Their default world view is that India is going from bad to worse thanks to greed &amp; corruption. If you read too many op-eds in Indian newspapers you will be convinced that the country should have fallen apart five days after the British left the natives to their own devices.\n\nThat brings us to the final 20% of the Indian paper which is worth focusing on, namely:\n\n&nbsp;\n<ul>\n 	<li></li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n 	<li><em>1. What are politicians doing? Who are they meeting – at home and abroad – and where are they spending their time? If a prominent national politician goes to a state capital to meet a regional politician then he’s sending a far more important message than a speech or a press statement. If a regional politician meets another regional counterpart then that is a more eloquent statement than any loan waiver announcement will ever be. If a politician repeatedly allows himself to be photographed at places of worship and/or with clergymen then that is more revealing than a speech in the Union Budget. If a minister’s wife’s name shows up on the shareholder register of a company then that is a more powerful statement than any policy announcement. Actions speak deafeningly louder than the words uttered by Indian politicians (which are often meaningless and sometimes incoherent). For both politicians and promoters, we tend to pay more attention to their actions rather than their spoken words because “nothing ever happens in India for no good reason”.</em></li>\n 	<li> <em>2. What are promoters doing? Are they selling or pledging their assets or shares in the companies they own? Or are they acquiring? IF they are selling it is worth trying to understand why they are selling? If they are buying – even if it is a mansion for their personal use or a stake in a start-up – that is a more useful bull signal than any amount of blather in a quarterly earnings call. Actions speak much louder than words for promoters and the Indian newspapers do a good job of reporting what promoters (and their SPVs) are up to.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>3. Narratives from the bottom are far more revealing and far more useful than narratives regarding the urban elite’s struggle with traffic jams, air pollution and university places. Here are three examples of telling narratives in Indian newspapers about the people who make up 80% of India’s population:</em></li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n 	<li>In mid-January the Business Standard published a story on how climate change is impacting fishermen in the fishing town Kakdwip in West Bengal: <em>“In the last six months, 37 fishermen have lost their lives while fishing in the Bay of Bengal. In the last ten years, the death toll from fishing stands at 165. Most of the deaths took place in August and September…the intensity of storms in the Bay of Bengal has risen significantly over the years…‘Over the past decade, we have witnessed increasing number of serious cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. Normally, it is seen that after a storm makes landfall, its intensity falls. But over time, we have witnessed that that this intensity is not slowing. The overall size of the cyclone has also increased. As oceans become warmer, they conserve more energy to sustain a cyclone’ says Prasad Kumar Bhaskaran, head of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture at IIT Kanpur.…Last year…by the time weather alerts reached the fishermen, they were already in the midst of the storm in the sea. The rescue boats could reach the site only after almost 36 years past the mishap…fisherman in West Bengal were dependent upon weather prediction forecasts from Bangladesh until last year, as weather forecasts from India came very late.”</em> (Source: (<a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/unpredictable-weather-dwindling-catch-drive-fishermen-into-choppy-waters-119011200720_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/unpredictable-weather-dwindling-catch-drive-fishermen-into-choppy-waters-119011200720_1.html</a>)</li>\n 	<li>The elite’s narrative on Chhattisgarh is that it is a Naxalite infested place where progress is patchy. In reality, not only has Chhattisgarh been one of India’s fastest growing states in the past five years, it’s hinterland is also beginning to recover. This Indian Express story from a year ago captures the spirit of the renaissance:<em> “Nearly every district headquarters in Chhattisgarh has a “mini-stadium”, used for cricket and football. In May last year, the administration of Bijapur, among the districts worst affected by left-wing violence in the country, decided to build in one such mini-stadium the Bijapur Sports Academy. Eight months later, it has over 240 students, training in 10 sports, under head coaches accredited by the Sports Authority of India (SAI). Of them, 17 have made it to the national level and four have won medals. At the state level, the medals tally of Bijapur Sports Academy trainees stands at 45….”</em>  (Source: <a href=\"https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/in-the-heart-of-maoist-land-in-chhattisgarh-an-academy-shapes-sports-champions-5042939/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/sport-others/in-the-heart-of-maoist-land-in-chhattisgarh-an-academy-shapes-sports-champions-5042939/</a>\n)</li>\n 	<li>The Indian labour market is poorly understood not just by the urban elite but also by labour economists. Last week the Mint published a long article containing an outstanding analysis of the Indian labour market: <em>“Migration for work within India is highly circular, with migrants working in multiple destinations during their lifetimes, and retiring in their native places. As per the Economic Survey of India 2016-17, there are over a hundred million migrant workers in India, of which most are circular migrants. The durations can be as short as a day or a week, in which case they are referred to as commuters, numbering in the tens of millions…A few more tens of millions migrate seasonally for work—for a few months of the year, drawn disproportionately from the Scheduled Castes and Tribes and from particular clusters in central India….These migrations are brokered by contractors, often tied with debt, and studies have documented difficult prospects of upward mobility….In a recently published book, India Moving: A History of Migration, I have argued that the great Indian migration wave of semi-permanent, male-dominated, and remittance-based migration is the world’s largest and longest voluntary stream of migration….”</em>  (Source: <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Politics/8WPPsZygqR7Mu6e3Fgy55N/A-million-migrations-Journeys-in-search-of-jobs.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.livemint.com/Politics/8WPPsZygqR7Mu6e3Fgy55N/A-million-migrations-Journeys-in-search-of-jobs.html</a>\n)</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIf you consume the output spewed out by India’s many media outlets in a conventional manner you are more likely than not conclude (incorrectly we believe) that the country is heading in the wrong direction. This is because the media consists of people like you and me whose view implicitly references India against the West or with cities like Singapore, London and New York. If on the other hand you read the Indian media selectively with a particular focus on narratives about the 80-90% of Indians whose lives are nowhere as comfortable as ours a very different picture of the country emerges. Whilst life is unrelentingly tough in this other India, the underlying trends seems to be in an upward direction regardless of which political party is ruling the roost. This upward trend seems to hold true even in states perceived as backward, notably, the Hindi speaking belt.\n\nSimilarly if you read promoter or CEO-speak in the Indian media, you are likely to conclude that without more reforms the economy cannot move forward; this is the persistent refrain of India Inc and the media has played-up this line for as long as we have been alive. And yet, the same promoters are investing in Indian start-ups, in Indian private equity funds and (still) buying upscale residences for themselves in Mumbai or in the countryside. The politicians through their family offices are also making similar investments albeit a little bit more discreetly. Hence it makes sense to ignore much of what these people say and instead focus on their actions.\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=670b8d5297&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: A Cynic’s Guide to Reading Indian Newspapers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '542-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 10:31:29', '2019-10-23 10:31:29', '', 542, 'http://marcellus.in/542-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(548, 1, '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '<em>Published on: 10th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> This week’s reads focus on Trump, why women win in the long run, Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession and the environment.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1.       </strong><strong>Long read: The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Chotiner\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a255a3a08&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/the-disturbing-surprisingly-complex-relationship-between-white-identity-politics-and-racism</a>)\r\nIn an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       <strong>Long read: Why women win in the long run</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Usborne\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b71b5c97d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0ead55ca-1d85-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)\r\nThis remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: The Trump era could last 30 years</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=74694f8923&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2GrxUun</a>)\r\nGideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read: Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession Actually ... Works?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Levine\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<u><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works</a></u>)\r\nEileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness...Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vrinda Shukla\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1f43c239fd&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nagaland-tribes-oh-so-backward-5567302/</a>)\r\nVrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India - ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f24c278564&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2DkU1zx</a>)\r\nIn his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th Feb 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '548-2', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=548', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(549, 1, '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '<em>Published on: 3rd Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Kotak’s lawsuit against the RBI, impact of tech education on the underprivileged, the post war US economy, Afroz Shah’s devotion for cleaning up our water bodies, cracks in global monetary system and another tech bubble burst.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong> 1.Long read: Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Sucheta Dalal\r\nSource: Moneylife (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d4f2d0693&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.moneylife.in/article/kotak-lawsuit-will-it-finally-make-rbi-accountable/56171.html</a>)\r\nA pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.Long read: Dharavi Diary - What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ananya Bhattacharya\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=153d0d8c0e&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://qz.com/india/1032018/dharavi-diary-what-happens-when-girls-in-one-of-the-worlds-largest-slums-start-coding-and-building-apps/</a>)\r\nPart of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.Long read: How This All Happened</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a2b95c1d5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/how-this-all-happened/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        - What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. Short read: Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Priya Ramani\r\nSource: Mint (<u><a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/afroz-shah-s-new-year-lesson-1548390272099.html</a></u>)\r\nPriya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,\" author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up\" (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,\" he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,\" he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,\" he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.\"</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. Short read: Cracks are opening in the global monetary system</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Russell Napier\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a806f2ee63&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://www.ft.com/content/271f4a2e-17d5-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21</a>)\r\nPart of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.Short read: Another tech bubble could be about to burst</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Rana Foroohar\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7d1612c685&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">https://on.ft.com/2G473W4</a>)\r\nIn his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>\"this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '3rd Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '531-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '2019-02-10 05:43:56', '', 531, 'http://marcellus.in/531-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(550, 1, '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '<em>Published on: 10th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>. This week’s reads focus on Trump, why women win in the long run, Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession and the environment.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1.       </strong><strong>Long read: The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Chotiner\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a255a3a08&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/the-disturbing-surprisingly-complex-relationship-between-white-identity-politics-and-racism</a>)\r\nIn an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       <strong>Long read: Why women win in the long run</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Usborne\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b71b5c97d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0ead55ca-1d85-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)\r\nThis remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: The Trump era could last 30 years</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=74694f8923&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2GrxUun</a>)\r\nGideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read: Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession Actually ... Works?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Levine\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<u><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works</a></u>)\r\nEileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness...Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vrinda Shukla\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1f43c239fd&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nagaland-tribes-oh-so-backward-5567302/</a>)\r\nVrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India - ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f24c278564&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2DkU1zx</a>)\r\nIn his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '548-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '2019-02-10 05:44:21', '', 548, 'http://marcellus.in/548-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(551, 1, '2019-02-10 05:45:22', '2019-02-10 05:45:22', '<em>Published on: 10th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>. This week’s reads focus on Trump, why women win in the long run, Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession and the environment.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1.       </strong><strong>Long read: The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Chotiner\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a255a3a08&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/the-disturbing-surprisingly-complex-relationship-between-white-identity-politics-and-racism</a>)\r\nIn an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       <strong>Long read: Why women win in the long run</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Usborne\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b71b5c97d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0ead55ca-1d85-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)\r\nThis remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: The Trump era could last 30 years</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=74694f8923&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2GrxUun</a>)\r\nGideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read: Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession Actually ... Works?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Levine\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<u><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works</a></u>)\r\nEileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness...Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vrinda Shukla\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1f43c239fd&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nagaland-tribes-oh-so-backward-5567302/</a>)\r\nVrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India - ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f24c278564&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2DkU1zx</a>)\r\nIn his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '548-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:45:22', '2019-02-10 05:45:22', '', 548, 'http://marcellus.in/548-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(552, 1, '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '<em>Published on: 10th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong> This week’s reads focus on Trump, why women win in the long run, Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession and the environment.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1.       </strong><strong>Long read: The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Isaac Chotiner\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a255a3a08&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/the-disturbing-surprisingly-complex-relationship-between-white-identity-politics-and-racism</a>)\r\nIn an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       <strong>Long read: Why women win in the long run</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Simon Usborne\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b71b5c97d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0ead55ca-1d85-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)\r\nThis remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: The Trump era could last 30 years</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Gideon Rachman\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=74694f8923&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2GrxUun</a>)\r\nGideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read: Bridgewater\'s Self-Obsession Actually ... Works?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Levine\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<u><a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-01/bridgewater-associates-proves-self-obsession-actually-works</a></u>)\r\nEileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness...Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vrinda Shukla\r\nSource: The Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1f43c239fd&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/nagaland-tribes-oh-so-backward-5567302/</a>)\r\nVrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India - ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f24c278564&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2DkU1zx</a>)\r\nIn his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '548-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '2019-02-10 05:46:36', '', 548, 'http://marcellus.in/548-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(554, 1, '2019-02-08 07:23:59', '2019-02-08 07:23:59', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 8 Feb, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the same problems which ravaged India’s banking system now spread into its money &amp; bond markets, we highlight the need for investors to strengthen their forensic accounting firepower. With over 60 years of experience of analysing the accounts of India’s leading companies, Marcellus’ research team (now stuffed with CAs and CFAs) is of the view that over 70% of India’s listed entities publish accounts which don’t make sense.         </span></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” </span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">–<strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\"> Albert Einstein</span></strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“For all practical purposes, board members are nominated by the managers, with limited or no input from the external shareholders. This tilts the balance of power in favour of the insiders or managers, who could choose to ignore the shareholders. However, there are other participants in the governance system, who could play an important role in correcting this imbalance. They are the information intermediaries, called ‘gatekeepers’, who ensure that only the right information about the corporation reaches the gates of the external investors, particularly shareholders. </span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">The gatekeepers in the financial market include credit rating agencies that evaluate a company’s creditworthiness, external auditors who provide independent assurance that the company’s financial condition is portrayed fairly, and securities analysts who assess its business prospects…</span></em>\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">It is these gatekeepers who failed in the case of Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp; FS)…During the financial year 2017-18, its operating profit rose to Rs 7,267.3 crore. However, debt increased at a much faster pace to Rs 91,091.3 crore. As a result, interest outgo touched Rs 7,922.8 crore during 2017-18. By 2018, the company was not even making enough profit to take care of its interest expense. Hence the default happened. </span></em>\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">While the board’s failure is apparent, the gatekeepers whose vigilance could have averted the crisis also failed in the case of IL&amp;FS.” <b>– Economic Times, 1<sup>st</sup> November 2018</b> (Source: <a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ilfs-mess-how-gatekeeper-rating-agencies-auditors-analysts-let-you-down/articleshow/66457372.cms\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ilfs-mess-how-gatekeeper-rating-agencies-auditors-analysts-let-you-down/articleshow/66457372.cms</a>\r\n) </span></em></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The stress in the banking system has spilled over</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nThrough 2013-17 as we watched the stress in the banking system build-up (with stressed assets ultimately rising beyond 15% of total banking system assets implying that most of the banks were bust in all but name), many of us kept asking ourselves “how long before this problem spills over into the rest of the financial system?”</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The beauty of a complex financial system is that it often refuses to follow the simple models that we build in our heads. So, rather than the problems of the banking system spilling over to the rest of the financial system, we ended up with a broad-based financial boom in 2017.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As liquidity flooded into the financial system post-demonetisation, not only did the stockmarket soar (the Nifty rose by 29% that year) but the three month Commercial Paper (CP) rate move towards 6% in July 2017 (from as high as 12% in September 2013).</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 2017 boom in financial markets made the issues in the banking system look like an isolated problem. More importantly, the healthy run that stock and bond markets enjoyed between 2014-2017 gave two successive RBI Governors, Raghu Rajan and Urjit Patel, the political space to squeeze errant promoters who had defaulted on their bank loans. To their credit, both Governors gradually squeezed the flow of credit from Public Sector Banks (PSBs) to promoters who were proven experts in gaming the banking system. In 2017 these promoters ran to the money market to raise funds – using CPs and Non-convertible debentures (NCDs) these promoters borrowed from India’s mutual fund industry which is ill-equipped to deal with premier league schemers.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then, over the last 18 months, as liquidity conditions normalised, the cost of issuing CPs and NCDs steadily rose – the three month CP rate is now approaching 8% in India. As a result, the final source of liquidity for many influential promoters was drying out. These people then lobbied New Delhi that the restrictions that the RBI had imposed on PSBs should be removed in the broader national interest of stimulating economic growth. We don\'t need to elaborate what happened next at the RBI.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, if we look beyond the drama at the RBI, what is more alarming is the ongoing challenge facing India’s money &amp; bond markets. Basically, the same set of factors that laid to waste much of the banking system is now rippling through our CP and NCD markets. In these markets the providers of credit are mutual funds and corporate Treasuries. Our extensive interactions with many of these market participants over the last three years has left us convinced that they are even less capable than our banks of dealing with India’s premier league schemers.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why did this happen…</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nAt one level it is not hard to see what is happening in India. The same rickety market infrastructure of conflicted auditors and equally conflicted credit rating agencies which did not work in America 10-20 years ago is letting India down. No sane person – in India or elsewhere - can expect an auditor or a credit rating agency to collect its fees from the company but work in the interests of shareholders/bondholders.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What exacerbates the problem in India is the slowness of the legal system to deliver justice to lenders or shareholders who are shortchanged by the promoters/managements. So until we create a system in which the market does not have to depend on the numbers/ratings produced by conflicted parties, we will continue to see Indian lenders being taken the cleaners regardless of how good the NCLT process is. In fact the shorter the tenor of the debt instrument, the lower the relevance of the NCLT process. It is worth noting that America’s famed bankruptcy process could not help bond investors from the being cleaned out in the wake of Bear Stearns and Lehman going bust.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">…and what can we do about it</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\nAs investors in India grapple with the issues rippling through the money market and the bond market, it is clear that the auditing and rating process needs an overhaul. Issuers should pay for their audits and their ratings but they should not be able to have any influence over their auditor or credit rater. Whilst the reflex reaction of regulators will be to say “we will appoint the auditor/rater”, a better way to do it would be to allocate auditors and raters using an online lottery system!</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Leaving aside structural fixes and until such time when the legal system dispenses justice more swiftly, investors in India’s financial markets need to double up on their forensic accounting skills and steer clear of companies whose accounts don’t make sense. At Marcellus, every single analyst and fund manager has a Indian Chartered Accountancy and/or a Chartered Financial Analyst (AIMR, USA) qualification. Between us we have over six decades of experience of studying the accounts of most of India’s leading companies and our view is that 70% of listed entities in India have accounts which do not make sense. It is relatively easy for us to steer clear of these firms given the amount of diligence we bring to bear on them. However, if the entire financial system begins to steer clear of these firms, India’s capex and job creation machinery will freeze. It is in this context that we reiterate that who wins the forthcoming elections has little relevance either for the financial markets or for the economy.</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</span></strong></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</span></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: The Virus Spreads Beyond the Banks', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-virus-spreads-beyond-the-banks', '', '', '2019-11-21 11:57:02', '2019-11-21 11:57:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=554', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(556, 1, '2019-10-23 09:40:09', '2019-10-23 09:40:09', '<em>Published on: 11 Jan, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Any activity which entails making a call on the future is as much about managing emotions as it is about rational analysis. Investing therefore is always and everywhere a dance between these two elements – reason &amp; emotion. We find that spirituality (i.e. reducing clutter in our lives, increasing focus on deep work, meditating, actively dealing with emotions) makes it easier to balance these two facets of the human mind.</strong>\n\n“I see all this potential, and I see it squandered. God damn it, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables - slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don\'t need. We\'re the middle children of history, man. No purpose or place. We have no Great War. No Great Depression. Our great war is a spiritual war... Our great depression is our lives. We\'ve all been raised on television to believe that one day we\'d all be millionaires, and movie gods, and rock stars, but we won\'t. We\'re slowly learning that fact. And we\'re very, very pissed off.” – <strong>Tyler Durden in the movie ‘Fight Club’ (1999)</strong> [underling is ours]\n\n<strong>Spirituality balances the emotional and the rational</strong>\nWhilst investing we have to make choices from a sea of possibilities. To make these decisions we usually have data on hand to analyse. And then we have to make a probabilistic call about the future which is as much emotional as it is rational. It is impossible to make a decision which is just based on numbers because for tomorrow’s world there we have no numbers, no “future facts”.\n\nFor example, when you see the sunset from a beach shack in Goa, part of you absorbs the facts regarding the natural phenomenon (time, temperature, the colour of the water, etc.). But another part of you appreciates the beauty of the spectacle and loves the changing mood of the day as night falls on the beach.\n\nSimilarly, in our professional lives too we react to most events (the performance of my portfolio, my bonus, the financial statements of a company that I have invested in, etc.) at both a factual/rational level and at an emotional level. Our academic and professional training, for the most part, is geared to help us deal only with our rational response to such stimuli.\n\nOur decisions therefore have to balance the emotional and the rational. Spirituality helps with that balance by preventing our emotions from completely overtaking our decision making. In high stress situation, spirituality helps us deal with anxiety and, specifically, preventing anxiety from paralysing our thinking. My friend Anupam Gupta and I have written a column for The Ken on this subject – click here for the same: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/the-spirituality-of-simplicity/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/the-spirituality-of-simplicity/</a>. Some of the concepts from this column are discussed below.\n\n<strong>Three areas where a spiritual approach helps</strong>\n<strong>Dealing with clutter:</strong> Our manic obsession with buying things we don’t need has cluttered our physical spaces with useless items. And mentally, we are no better off, with the clutter of distractions from social media to the Bloomberg terminal when we know we have a one-hour deadline. Then there’s the clutter of fruitless relationships and the time we spend with people that draw down our energy reserves. The more you pack into your life/day, the greater the risk that you suffer from cognitive overload; your intellectual abilities are then compromised.\n\nThe spiritual approach to this is to place greater value on the well-being of our inner self, prioritising those possessions and relationships that truly matter to you. It’s a philosophy that has been espoused repeatedly over the ages. Chuck Palahniuk famously wrote, “The things you own ending up owning you”. Stoicism, a school of Ancient Greek philosophy, speaks of frugality. And there\'s scientific evidence to highlight the importance of what really moves the needle with regards to our well-being - meaningful relationships.\n\nThe Harvard Study of Adult Development - one of the world\'s longest studies of adult life, spanning nearly 80 years – has thrown up some startling findings. Robert Waldinger, director of the study, summarises these findings as follows: “The surprising finding is that our relationships and how happy we are in our relationships has a powerful influence on our health. Taking care of your body is important, but tending to your relationships is a form of self-care too. That, I think, is the revelation.” (Source: <a href=\"https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/04/over-nearly-80-years-harvard-study-has-been-showing-how-to-live-a-healthy-and-happy-life/\">https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/04/over-nearly-80-years-harvard-study-has-been-showing-how-to-live-a-healthy-and-happy-life/</a>)\n\n<strong>Actively dealing with emotions:</strong> “Men are not afraid of things, but of how they view them,” the Greek philosopher Epictetus said centuries ago. We have to deal with our fears and our anxieties in a constructive, practical, clear-headed manner. For example, if as an equity analyst, I am anxious about my portfolio’s exposure to the Pharma sector, I needs to get to the bottom of this anxiety. Is it because I don’t understand the chemistry underpinning these company’s products? Or is it because I haven’t spent enough time understanding the sector?\n\nRay Dalio says in his book ‘Principles: Life and Work’ that “The most valuable habit I’ve acquired is using pain to trigger quality reflections. If you can acquire this habit, you will learn what causes you pain and what you can do about it, and it will have an enormous effect on your effectiveness.”\n\n<strong>Achieving deep focus:</strong> Achieving peak performance is pure joy; it also involves deep, almost extreme focus and overcoming huge challenges. From intense physical training to long hours of focused work, almost any goal that’s worth achieving will require inhuman effort.\n\nIn the end, hitting this peak is immensely rewarding. In our experience, the work we put into researching a company requires deep focus—and it is not always rewarding (if it was then everybody in the world would slogging away doing extensive research on companies). While we spend hours analysing annual reports and travelling to gather primary data, the market might just not care for our effort.\n\nFor many years, the stock price of that company might not go anywhere. This is the pain and self-doubt that we have to endure. But when one of our investments proves us right, our reward is more than just the profits we make—it’s also the emotional payoff that comes from having weathered the pain and reaching our goal.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n1. Balancing the emotional and the rational is most critical when a watershed event (eg. a stunning General Election result) or a crisis (eg. a major terrorist atrocity involving a high profile target) takes place. There is a high chance that in such circumstances the stockmarket will react emotionally (as investors’ emotions will trump over their reason). Share price overreaction in such circumstances is almost inevitable. If we are able to stay calm in such situations, we will be able to spot opportunities others can’t.\n2. The same point is applicable in the case of company-specific news – shockingly good or bad results are likely to lead to share price overreaction. Investors who stay calm in such situations can profit.\n3. Ray Dalio says that meditation helps him stay calm and think clearly under pressure. Jason Voss, another successful investor, says in his book ‘The Intuitive Investor’ that “Meditation is a natural state of mind that occurs when the egoic mind is diminished or turned off.” According to Voss, “egoic mind means the state of mind where a sense of “I”, or a sense of separateness from the interconnectedness of the universe exists.” From an investor’s perspective, the benefits of meditation, according to Voss are that allows you “access to creativity, intuition and wealth manifestation. Exploration of this topic opens up an entirely new world, one rich with skills for making you richer.” In other words, by subduing your ego and your sense of self, meditation allows more creative thoughts to bubble up to the forefront of your mind.\n4. Dealing with management teams and especially with overbearing promoters is as much an exercise in managing ones emotions as it is about understanding the company’s fundamentals. It is exactly in such circumstances that our ability to strike a balance between the fundamentals of the company and the personality of the promoter comes into play. The latter cannot be allowed to override the former even if the promoter is our best friend, or more likely, a client of ours.\n5. Getting rid of distractions at work (such as newsfeeds, networking events, long meetings) helps reduce mental clutter, improves clarity of thought and helps one make more balanced decisions.\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources\">http://marcellus.in/resources</a>\n\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Does Spirituality Help Improve Clarity of Thought?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '543-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 09:40:09', '2019-10-23 09:40:09', '', 543, 'http://marcellus.in/543-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(557, 1, '2019-02-11 04:43:45', '2019-02-11 04:43:45', '<em>Published on: 28 Dec, 2018</em>\n\n<strong>Through the ages, the greatest and most lasting fortunes have been built on the back of commercial opportunism allied with the willingness to bend the rule of the law repeatedly &amp; ruthlessly. The Medicis in Italy, the Mitsui in Japan and JP Morgan in America are exemplars of this template of capitalism. It is unrealistic to expect Indian capitalists to follow a different playbook and it is equally unrealistic to believe that you or I can make money by buying shares in such companies.</strong>\n\n<em>“Through all these chapters, of which he [JP Morgan] was making a million or two or three every time he doctored a [rail]road…he was hammering at the principle that competition amongst the [rail]roads was disastrous…Morgan worked for that end, but he wanted it under an oligarchy of railroad presidents, dominated by a few bankers, himself the chieftest…Therefore, in 1888, he brought the leading road chiefs together at his home, talked harshly to them about their sins, and after much wrangling formed the Interstate Commerce Railroad Association to make effective his “community of interest” theory to end rate wars and set up an agency to arbitrate differences. He called it a gentleman’s agreement.” – <strong>John T.Flynn in “Men of Wealth: The Story of Twelve Significant Fortunes from the Renaissance to the Present Day” (1941)</strong> [square brackets are ours]</em>\n\n<strong>[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] </strong>\n\n<strong>Free markets and Western propaganda</strong>\n\nOne of the challenges for people like us to who read Western publications like The Economist or the Wall Street Journal is that we end of implicitly believing some of the dogma promoted by such publications. Much of the Western financial press would have us believe that the path to prosperity lies via free markets, robust competition, a strong legal system and democratic political institutions. Relative to such a paradigm, India and India’s capitalists obviously fall short on many fronts and that then leads to recipes being trotted out for “reforming” India’s economy.\n\nHowever, if you look at the richest dynasties in America, in Europe and in Japan, their rise owes almost nothing to the nostrums preached by the Western intelligentsia. Instead, as we show below, the rise of families as disparate as the Mitsui in Japan, the Medicis in Italy and JP Morgan in USA has four common features which are all too familiar to Indians: <strong>(a)</strong> being at the cutting edge of financial innovation – in specific procuring funds as cheaply as possible and then deploying it for higher returns; <strong>(b)</strong> manipulating the political/regulatory system repeatedly and ruthlessly to stifle competition and corner the market; <strong>(c)</strong> extending the advantage created by the two preceding points to enter new industries and then lobbying for favourable regulatory change; and <strong>(d)</strong> perpetuating this recipe for success over multiple generations to create a dynasty whose tentacles extend across many parts of the economy, the polity and the clergy.\n\n<strong>Three Indian-style crony capitalists outside India</strong>\n\n<strong>Cosimo de Medici</strong> (1389-1464) was the founder the Medici dynasty which at its peak was Europe’s richest family, its most powerful bankers and de facto rulers of Florence for most of the fifteenth century. Cosimo inherited his banking skills and his seed capital from his father and then parlayed it into the greatest fortune Europe had ever seen. He fraternized with Franciscan clerics and presented them a monastery. In 1410, Giovanni lent John XXIII the money to buy himself the office of cardinal, which he repaid by making the Medici Bank head of all papal finances once he became the pope. As Cosimo set up bank branches in London, Pisa, Avignon, Bruges, Milan and Lubeck, the Vatican found it convenient to use the Medici Bank - since it enabled bishoprics in many parts of Europe to pay their fees into the nearest branch, whose manager would then issue a papal license, and the popes could more easily order a variety of wares – such as spices, textiles, and relics – through the Medicis\' wholesale trade.\n\nCosimo then used his wealth to control the votes of office holders in Florence’s municipal councils. As Florence was proud of its \"democracy\", Cosimo pretended to have little political ambition and did not hold public office. However, political questions were settled in Cosimo\'s house. He was king in all but name. In fact, the Medicis were the sort of kings that we are all too familiar with in India. John T Flynn says <em>“He mingled the virtues of the chalice and the dagger. The problems of competition that have continued to torture industrial barons, he met with the singularly effective application of the knife. Persons of power who were in his way…were murdered.”</em>\n\n<strong>Hachirobei Mitsui</strong> (1622-1694) is the founder of the Mitsui business empire. The Mitsui clan were originally samurais (warriors) but Hachirobei’s father sold his swords and turned his hand to brewing saki &amp; soy sauce. Hachirobei, the youngest son, started a “cash &amp; carry” business (the first of its kind in Japan) and catered to the needs of the middle class. By the end of the 17th century, he had a thousand branches across Japan. Since he understood which merchants were good credits and which were not and since he could collect affluent customers’ deposits in his branches, it was but natural for him to enter banking. As his own cash management machine grew, he offered to do the same for the Shogun.\n\nJapanese peasants paid their taxes in the form of rice. The Shogun then had to sell the rice locally for gold and then transport the gold to his Treasury in Yedo. This was a hazardous business thanks to highway robbers. Hachirobei offered took over this operation. He brought the rice locally and without having to transport gold across the country, instructed his Yedo branch to deposit the requisite amount of gold in the Treasury. For him the Shogun became another ledger entry in his banking operation. However, in return for performing this service, the Mitsuis were given six months of free use of the taxes (i.e. the rice they collected).\n\nThe Mitsuis never relinquished this role as banker to the Shogun and proceeded to transform this “float” into a fortune. In the centuries that followed not only did they became the biggest lenders in Japan but also the owners the biggest cotton mills, the largest coal mines, the largest paper mills, the largest silk manufacturing operation in the world, etc. Their influence on the Japanese Government before and after the Meiji restoration was legendary. Often the head of the Mitsui business would become either the Finance Minister or the Governor of the central bank or both. Soon they were bribing officers of the Japanese Navy to buy arms from British arms manufacturers who had hired the Mitsuis to crack open the Japanese market, again something that we in India are accustomed to seeing in India.\n\n<strong>John Pierpont Morgan</strong> (1837-1913) was the defining banker of 19th century America and who, amongst other things, laid the foundations of the financial behemoth that is today’s JP Morgan. Morgan entered banking in 1857. During the American Civil War (1861-65) Morgan financed the purchase of five thousand faulty rifles (soldiers who were loading the guns were getting their thumbs blown away) from an army arsenal at $3.50 each, which were then resold to a field general for $22 each.\n\n30 years later came the episode which sealed Morgan’s reputation. The Federal Treasury was nearly out of gold in 1895. Morgan had put forward a plan for the Government to buy gold from his and European banks but it was declined in favor of a plan to sell bonds directly to the general public. Morgan then convinced the then US President that the Government could default if they didn\'t do something. Morgan came up with a plan which allowed Morgan and the Rothschilds to sell 3.5 million ounces of gold directly to the US Treasury in exchange for a 30-year government bond issue. This allowed Morgan to buy effectively buy US government bonds at $104.50 at a time when the prevailing rate was $111. Unsurprisingly, Morgan immediately sold the bonds in the open market for $112-124. Six months later when the US Government faced the same situation again, they circumvented Morgan and directly issued bonds to the public at $110-120.\n\nBetween these two events, Morgan became the promoter and financier of most key companies in America barring Standard Oil. He controlled most of the important railroad tracks. He controlled US Steel. He had AT&amp;T under this thumb. He controlled 10 insurance companies, 34 banks, 12 public utility corporations and 120 other corporations. In the words Louis Brandeis, former Associate Justice of the US Supreme Court, “JP Morgan (or a partner), a director of the New York, New Haven &amp; Hartford Railroad, causes that company to sell to JP Morgan &amp; Co, an issue of bonds...The New Haven spends the proceeds of the bonds in purchasing steel rails from the US Steel Corporation, of which Mr Morgan (or a partner) is a director. US Steel spends the proceeds of the rails in purchasing electrical supplies from the General Electric Company, of which Mr Morgan (or a partner) is a director….” (Source: “Other People’s Money and How the Bankers Use it” by Louis Brandeis)\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n<ul>\n 	<li>History has shown us that often the recipe for massive wealth generation across multiple generations often involves abusing the law and corrupting the government of the day. For both ethical and for practical reasons, minority shareholders like us cannot hope to profit from buying shares in such companies even as we understand that the promoters of these companies will become obscenely wealthy and unbelievably powerful.</li>\n 	<li>The notion that somehow India will create an economic construct where such men will be tamed is delusional regardless of whichever political party is in charge in New Delhi. The rise of economies as disparate as Japan, America and Italy is basically the story of the rise of several such ruthless barons. To believe that a more benign form of capitalism existed once upon a time in the West and could one day exist in India is to believe in the fairytales spun by the Western intelligentsia.</li>\n 	<li>The combination of the two preceding points means that if we want to profit from India’s economic ascent, we have a superset of no more than 40 listed companies to choose from. These companies are relatively clean (in that they are not cooking their books and corrupting the polity), relatively well managed and have – without indulging in nefarious activity – managed to pull ahead of the competition. This very short list of companies ironically makes the job of profitably investing in the Indian stockmarket actually relatively straightforward.</li>\n 	<li>The crossroads at which India finds itself today – where the core of the banking system consisting of public sector banks has collapsed and where the RBI has lost two governors in four years – is ideally suited for the capture of the banking system by industrialists. No prizes for guess which industrial houses will grab the juiciest banks.</li>\n</ul>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/ </a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Grand Fortunes and the Illusion of Competition', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '383-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-02-11 04:43:45', '2019-02-11 04:43:45', '', 383, 'http://marcellus.in/383-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(564, 1, '2019-02-15 17:51:00', '2019-02-15 17:51:00', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 15 Feb, 2019</span></em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-563 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Untitled-e1550252477702.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"468\" height=\"272\" />\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the past decade, the Nifty’s earnings have not only grown at a much slower pace than the Indian economy, they have also trailed the S&amp;P500’s earnings growth by a country mile (although the Indian economy is growing much faster than the American economy). This disturbing phenomenon has far reaching implications for Indian investors.   </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">–</span></strong></p>\r\n<strong>The Nifty has fallen far behind the Indian economy</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the last ten years, India’s GDP growth (in nominal terms) has averaged 13% per annum whilst the most popular benchmark index in India, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 8% per annum. In fact, in nine out of the last ten years, the Nifty’s earnings growth has trailed nominal GDP by a country mile (the only exception being FY11). In America on the other hand, nominal GDP growth over the past decade has been barely 4% and yet the S&amp;P 500’s earnings has grown at 12% per annum, a full 400bps faster than the Nifty (even without converting the Nifty’s earnings to US dollars)! Why do the benchmark indices in India and America display completely opposite trends (when compared to the GDP growth of their respective economies) and what implications does that have for investors?</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Why does the Nifty lag the Indian economy?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">To understand why the Nifty no longer captures the dynamism of the Indian economy a good place to start is the index as it stood ten years ago. On the face of it, the ten year share price return from investing in the Nifty is a very respectable 14% but that is a deceptively flattering figure. A better way to understand the quality (or lack thereof) of the Nifty is to look at the return from investing in the underlying fifty stocks which were in the Nifty ten years ago – such a portfolio (equal weighted) would give you a return of <u>negative 1% per annum</u> (CAGR over ten years). [Note: by starting the measurement in February 2009, when the market was close to its post-Lehman lows, we are giving the Nifty every chance to benefit from an unusually low base.]</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you assume that the cost of equity of a typical investor investing in Indian stocks is 15%, <u>only 18 out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty have given a return above the cost of equity over the past ten years</u>. [This number too is flattered by the fact that our starting period in Feb 2019.] These 18 outperformers – ranked in descending order of performance – are: HCL Tech, TCS, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki, M&amp;M, Zee, HUL, HDFC, Wipro, Tata Motors, BPCL, Infosys, ITC, Siemens, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Grasim, L&amp;T and Sun Pharma. As you can see from the list, barring four companies, all the other companies are from relatively capital light and/or B2C sectors like Consumer, Auto, Pharma and Banking.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The other 32 companies – whose ten year return is below the cost of capital – are from balance sheet heavy sectors like Power, Construction, Metals, Telecom, Real Estate and Oil &amp; Gas. These sectors accounted for roughly 30-35% of the Indian economy. And yet these companies account for two-thirds of the companies in the Nifty leaving little room in the index for the more vibrant sectors of the economy. <em>The over-representation in the Nifty of the capital heavy sectors of the economy is therefore a key reason its sluggish performance. </em>It is not obvious to us why the Nifty continues to have such a high proportion of companies from balance sheet heavy sectors.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, over the last five years, the Nifty’s market has increasingly diverged from India’s nominal GDP (after faithfully tracking it for much of the preceding decade). This in turn is suggests that significant drivers of the Indian economy are no longer in the listed market. For example, taxi aggregators (Ola, Uber), online retailers (Flipkart, Amazon), electronics goods manufacturers, car manufacturers other than Maruti, hotels other than Taj, Oberoi and Lemontree, etc – basically most of the things that affluent India buys beyond FMCG and apparel – is no longer in the listed market. These companies are able to access capital at low cost without entering the stockmarket and therefore their contribution to GDP is not reflected in the stockmarket. If, as the Indian economy matures, the unlisted world continues to provide capital at lower cost than the listed market then the gap between GDP and market cap will widen further.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Implications for investor</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. The sluggishness of the Nifty makes its relatively easy for reasonably competent fund managers to outperform the index and unjustifiably claim the presence of skill. Whilst this does  pose a challenge for Nifty tracker/index funds (since they are tracking a moribund index), it also opens up enormous opportunities in India for smart beta funds. For example, the Nifty Junior (which represents the 50 most liquid stocks below the Nifty) almost always outperforms the Nifty</span></em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. Given that nearly two-thirds of the Nifty constituents have failed to give a return above the cost of capital, large cap Indian funds which draw their constituents largely from the Nifty are a difficult investment to justify. On the other hand, even a relatively simple method – like our Consistent Compounders algorithm which focuses on a select subset of Nifty stocks - is able to deliver returns which are consistently above the cost of capital.</span></em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. The inability of the Indian stockmarket to provide lower cost funding than the Private Equity (PE) firms is depriving the Indian stockmarket of high quality companies which can dominate their sectors and help the stockmarket participate in India’s economic growth. The more important foreign companies and PE funded companies become in India, the bigger the questions mark around the relevance of the Indian stockmarket as a medium via which ordinary investors can benefit from India’s economic growth.</span></em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">4. The fact that the S&amp;P500 can consistently grow earnings much faster than US economic growth suggests that American companies can tap into Emerging Markets’ economic growth much better than Indian companies in the Nifty. This not only raises troubling questions about the quality of capital allocation and accounting in many large Indian companies who are in the Nifty, it also suggests that Indian investors should consider investing in a portfolio of global companies who dominate specific segments on a worldwide basis.</span></em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0d170ef671&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Nifty is No Longer a Play on the Indian Economy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '561-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-02-15 17:51:00', '2019-02-15 17:51:00', '', 561, 'http://marcellus.in/561-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(558, 1, '2019-11-19 05:47:06', '2019-11-19 05:47:06', '<em>Published on: 20 Dec, 2018</em>\n\n<strong>Memory in all its avatars (perception, projection, intelligence) plays a big role in how we invest. The fragility of our memories (both in the sense of how quickly they fade and in the sense of how susceptible to manipulation they are) suggests that we need to be careful with how we deal with memories.</strong>\n\n<em>“Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find the relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.”</em> – <strong>Daniel Kahneman in “Thinking, Fast and Slow” (2011)</strong>\n\n<strong>[Note: Marcellus looking for Senior Analysts. If you know good analysts, please refer them to <a href=\"/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>] </strong>\n\n<strong>Memory helps us project</strong>\n\nHenry Molaison suffered his first major epileptic seizure on his fifteen birthday. Thereafter the seizures became more frequent and faced with a future of violent convulsions, Henry underwent surgery which removed the middle part of the temporal lobe on both sides of his brain. The seizures stopped but there was one side effect – Henry could no longer form any new memories. His peculiar state allowed scientists to understand why memory exists in the form it does. More specifically, because Henry could not form any new memories, he was also unable to imagine the future. If you asked Henry “What would it be like to go to the beach tomorrow?”, all he would be able to say is “I can see the colour blue”. (Source: “The Brain: The Story of You” by David Eagleman)\n\nHenry’s plight suggests that the real purpose of the brain is not to record the past but to allow us to project into the future. To imagine what it would be like to go to Goa in July, for example, my hippocampus pulls together my memories of Goa (from my visits, from what people have told me about Goa, from what I have seen on TV) helps me create an imagined future wherein I am sitting in a beachside shack in Goa with a glass of feni whilst the rains lash the Arabian Sea.\n\nMy friend, Anupam Gupta, and I have written a piece for The Ken on this subject. You can find it here: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/step-into-the-memory-palace/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/step-into-the-memory-palace/</a>\n\n<strong>Memory helps us perceive</strong>\n\nWe might see a fellow passenger on a plane or a bus and tell ourselves that “she looks like so and so from college”. This form of “seeing-perceiving-relating to what’s in our memories” is a common routine that all of us go through many times in a day. As Nick Chater says in his book “The Mind is Flat” (2018):\n\n<em>“The brain interprets one word, face or pattern at a time, but in doing so it simultaneously explores possible links between the current stimulus and a vas array of memories or interpretations of past stimuli…<strong>The resonance between perception and memory must occur ‘in parallel’</strong>…Given our sluggish neurons, matching the current perceptual input with each of our vast repertoire of memory traces one at a time would be unfeasibly slow. And, when interpreting a new stimulus, the brain may have little idea which memories it needs to search – indeed, it seems able to draw on its entire stock of memory traces equally easily. Before the interpretation has been made, the brain can’t know which memories will be relevant – so it has to search them all. Notice that…each new perceptual interpretation is based on memories of past interpretations. <strong>We never see the world ‘with fresh eyes’. Each new interpretation is an amalgam and transformation of past interpretations</strong>…” [Bold font is ours]</em>\n\n<strong>Our memories are fragile and prone to manipulation</strong>\n\nIt is tempting for us to believe that in a changing world, our memories are the only constant an intellectual support system which holds our identity together – tempting but wrong. Our memories not only fade but they also get coloured by subsequent events. Professor Elizabeth Loftus of the University of California at Irvine demonstrated this using a simple experiment wherein she first showed a group of volunteers a video of two cars colliding with each other. Then she asked some of the volunteers “how fast were the cars moving when they <strong>hit</strong> each other?” and the other the remaining volunteers “how fast were the cars moving when they <strong>smashed into</strong> with each other?” The latter group reported much higher speeds for the cars – just two words “smashed into” were responsible for the latter group of volunteers’ memories being coloured.\n\nNot only can others colour our memories, we can colour our memories ourselves. For example, a year ago my wife and I had dinner with some friends who looked like a happy suburban couple. A few months later we heard that they were separating from each other. That extra bit of information started colouring my perception of our dinner with the now estranged couple. Wasn’t the wife’s laughter over dessert a touch strained? Wasn’t the husband’s eyes roving a bit more usual?\n\nAnd that brings us to one of the most mindblowing paradoxes in pscychology – your memories are distinct from your experiences. In other words, what you remember of an event is very different from what you actually experience. A real life episode from Prof. Elizabeth Loftus’ life illustrates this point:\n\n“…when Elizabeth was a child, her mother had drowned in a swimming pool. Years later, a conversation with a relative brought out an extraordinary fact: that Elizabeth had been the one to find her mother’s body in the pool. That news came as a shock to her; she hadn’t known that, and in fact she didn’t believe it. But, she describes, “I went home from that birthday and I started to think about other things that I did remember – like when the fireman came, they gave me oxygen. Maybe I needed the oxygen ‘cause I was so upset that I found the body?” Soon, she could visualise her mother in the swimming pool.\n\nBut then her relative called to say he had made a mistake. It wasn’t the young Elizabeth after all who had found the body. It had been Elizabeth’s aunt. And that’s how Loftus had the opportunity to experience what it was like to possess her own false memory, richly detailed and deeply felt.” (Source: “The Brain: the story of you” by David Eagleman)\n\n<strong>Memory is a form of intelligence</strong>\n\nAs Danny Kahneman says in quote cited at the beginning of this piece, memory is a form of intelligence. In fact, some psychologists say that <strong>intelligence is nothing more than a deep, specialized bank of memories</strong>. The following example will help you understand why.\n\nRead the following three statements and tell me if the third statement true or false:\n\n<em>Crocodiles are mammals. Mammals have babies. Therefore crocodiles have babies.</em>\n\nThe third statement is false because the first statement is false. Even though by asking you to focus on the third statement, I am distracting you away from the first statement, some people are more likely than others to spot that the first statement is false. Those people are either biology buffs and/or those who remember having been taught in school that crocs are reptiles, not mammals. The ability to recall such information swiftly and apply it in the right context is why Kahneman says that memory is a form of intelligence.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\nMemory in all its avatars (perception, projection, intelligence) obviously plays a big role in how we invest. Arguably, memory is the basis of how we invest. The fragility of our memories (both in the sense of how quickly they fade and in the sense of how susceptible to manipulation they are) suggests that we need to be careful with how we deal with memories. Four specific steps seem particularly useful to us:\n<ul>\n 	<li>1. We find it useful to write down not just how meetings with management or primary data sources went but also how we perceived particularly good/bad corporate announcements. Similarly, writing down the reasons for buying, selling or avoiding a stock is seems to be a good idea. It helps to create a tangible record which we can come back to years later when our recollection of the event has faded or have been coloured.</li>\n 	<li>2. Buying or selling a stock basis what someone else has told us worries us even if the someone else is the CEO of that company, a reputed analyst or an industry guru. These people are – unintentionally perhaps - profoundly colouring or memories and influencing our perceptions. Hence we are increasingly disinclined to place too much value on meeting the CEO or industry gurus.</li>\n 	<li>3. We find it useful to have a team where members have diverse memories and varied experiences to bank upon. A team in which everybody is a middle aged, male Chartered Account who has grown up in Mumbai or where everybody is a graduate from IIM is likely to have less memories (and hence less intelligence) to draw upon than a more diverse team.</li>\n 	<li>4. In light of what neuroscience is telling us about how the human mind works, the artisanal-skill style of investing where an intelligent, experienced fund manager draws upon her memories and then makes a judgement call on a company seems increasingly vulnerable to criticism. If we want to create a robust investment process which does not wax and wane with our memories of annual reports we have read and companies we have met, we have to rely more on data than our memories/intelligence. That in turn will push all of us – even those who are not quant fund managers – towards using a quantitative framework to drive 80% of the investment process (with the omniscient fund manager’s judgement being the final 20%).</li>\n</ul>\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services. </strong>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. </em>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Your memory will determine how much money you make', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '382-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-19 05:47:06', '2019-11-19 05:47:06', '', 382, 'http://marcellus.in/382-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1990, 1, '2019-11-18 05:09:51', '2019-11-18 05:09:51', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 2 Feb, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With potentially $500 billion per annum of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion per annum arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our visits to India’s smaller cities suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade.</span></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“We find several attributes of Indian households that are exceptional in the international context. Importantly, these distinctive features of Indian household balance sheets cannot be explained by differences in the demographic characteristics, wealth, or income of Indian households relative to their counterparts in other countries…A large fraction of the wealth of Indian households is in the form of physical assets (in particular, gold and real estate). This is unusual in the international context, and especially unusual for younger households, and for households in the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, i.e., those with the lowest amounts of gross assets…Over the coming decade and a half, the elderly cohort is expected to grow by 75percent. Only a small fraction of this cohort has saved in private pension plans. Moreover, a large segment of the population of households in all age cohorts has not actively taken steps to insure adequate financial coverage during retirement. The need to finance adequate consumption during retirement is therefore a looming issue, and when combined with the low penetration of insurance, households appear particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks later in life.” </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">– <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Report of the Household Finance Committee,RBI,July2017</span></strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">(Source:<a href=\"https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF\">https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF</a>)</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Basic retirement maths…..</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nTo become a SEBI regulated investment advisor one needs to pass two exams. Whilst answering questions for the ‘financial planning for retirement’ module for the second exam, I figured out the retirement maths for a typical Indian upper middle class family.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Assume that such a family currently lives off a post-tax income of Rs 50 lakhs per annum. Assume further that the income earning people in the family have 20 years to go to retirement implying that 20 years hence they will need Rs 3 crores per annum to have the same quality of life (as they do today) post-retirement. To maintain an annual income at this level for a 25-year retirement this family will need to have in (in today’s money) a Rs 15 crore corpus.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">…has devastating implications for most Indians</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nAs we travel around India, raising assets for our portfolio, we can see that in small town India owners of SME businesses have figured out for themselves the devastating implications of the retirement maths outlined above. In particular, they have figured out their land, their property and their gold will not be enough to fund them through retirement - the RBI’s remarkably well researched August 2017 Household Financial Committee report says that 95% of Indian households’ stock of wealth is in physical assets. As everyone in India now knows, physical assets struggle to keep up even with the rate of inflation (and therefore cannot create wealth in real terms). Unfortunately, for these SME owners (and for 99% of other Indians) very few Indian families have the wherewithal to retire with a corpus of Rs 15 crores of financial assets and thus adequately fund a 25-year long upper middle class retirement.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The practical implication of this is that the smaller the town, the quicker the SME owner warms up to our offering. So, using Tamilnadu as an example, a pitch which takes an hour in Chennai, takes 45 minutes in Coimbatore (population: 1.6 million), 40 minutes in Tirrupur (population: 0.8 million) and around 30 minutes in Erode (population: 0.5 million). There are several reasons we believe for this pattern (which we have seen in Maharashtra as well):\n• The financialisation of savings has happened to a certain extent in big cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. In smaller cities, most SME owners have only a smattering of financial assets (usually fixed deposits and Life Insurance Company policies).\n• The market for residential property and land still has some liquidity in the big cities – at least a few flats are being bought and sold in cities like Mumbai and Chennai. In smaller cities, the market for real estate is completely frozen solid. There have been no deals all year long in several of the smaller cities we have visited.\n• The audience which meets us in the bigger cities tends to have a greater proportion of people from white collar professions – people who have a steady income and hence a greater sense of security. In the smaller cities, the audience is overwhelmingly SME owners who have to live by their wits eg. textile traders, spice traders, car dealers, local real estate developers. These people have to live with volatility in their day job and hence crave the security that comes from investing in a relatively predictable financial asset.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Investment implications</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nIf India’s per capita income – which is around US$2000 today – grows at 5% per annum (which is what it has done in the last 10 years) over the next 10 years, the country’s per capita income will be around US$3,300. Assuming a population of 1.5 billion, this gives India a US$5 trillion GDP ten years hence. Assuming further that our household savings rate will stay at broadly 20% a decade out gives us annual household savings of US$1 trillion. At present, roughly half of household savings in India are in financial assets (the rest is in physical). If this ratio persists, then a decade out, annual household savings should be around US$500 billion in India.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, such a figure ignores the balance sheet shift that we highlighted in the opening paras of this note. As SME owners realise that they need to save more through financial rather than physical savings, they will start selling their real estate to invest in financial assets. The question is at what rate will this shift take place? As per RBI data, presently 95% of Indian wealth is in physical assets. If this number drops by 1% point per annum (which is what our reading of the Credit Suisse World Wealth Yearbook suggests) then that implies that around $100 billion per annum could get added to the annual flow into financial savings.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With potentially $500 billion of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our visits to India’s smaller cities suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade (from US$200 billion today to US$600 billion).</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the same period, the Western economies and Japan will age further and their fiscal positions are likely to deteriorate further. As a result, these economies might stop exporting capital and start using their income to fund their retirements and their fiscal imbalances. In parallel, it seems unlikely that India’s stockmarket and its still illiquid bond market can handle the barrage of financial flows which we are foreseeing. That in turn could make India a capital exporter with a per capita income of a mere US$3,300 (to put things in perspective, Sri Lanka’s per capita income today is US$4000). The next generation of foreign investors could thus be Indian fund managers looking for attractive stocks in the world outside India rather than Westerners attending conferences hosted by brokers in the five star hotels of Mumbai.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/ </a></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</span></strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</span></em></p>', 'Marcellus: The Big Shift in Small Town India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '540-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 05:09:51', '2019-11-18 05:09:51', '', 540, 'http://marcellus.in/540-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(567, 1, '2019-02-17 10:37:10', '2019-02-17 10:37:10', '<em>Published on: 10th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n<div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on tribal identity, the science behind junk food addiction, India’s new IT law, the two types of office workers, the lack of evidence for brain training and frugal living.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Tribal World – Group Identity is All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Chua\r\nSource: Foreign Affairs (<a href=\"https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world\">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Moss\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. <em>“What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”</em>\r\n<em>“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….</em>\r\n<em>...one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…</em>\r\n<em>….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”</em>\r\n<em>“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..</em>\r\n<em>….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”</em>\r\n<em>….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: India Proposes Chinese-Style Internet Censorship</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vindu Goel</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">Source: The New York Times(<u><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html</a></u>)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Indian Government’s proposed amendment to the IT act to regulate content on social media and messaging platforms has triggered a roaring debate among tech companies to freedom-of-speech activists to political parties. Whilst the headline of this NYT piece might have gone too far in comparing it with China (several countries including those from the west have implemented rules to various degrees in this direction), it does raise questions given the timing of the law – weeks before what will undoubtedly be a crucial general election from the perspective of the country’s long term political future.\r\n<em>“…Under the proposed rules, Indian officials could demand that Facebook, Google, Twitter, TikTok and others remove posts or videos that they deem libelous, invasive of privacy, hateful or deceptive. Internet companies would also have to build automated screening tools to block Indians from seeing “unlawful information or content.” Another provision would weaken the privacy protections of messaging services like WhatsApp so that the authorities could trace messages back to their original senders…. </em>\r\n<em>… “The proposed changes have an authoritarian bent,” said Apar Gupta, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital rights group, which plans to challenge the rules in court if they are enacted. “This is very similar to what China does to its citizens, where it polices their every move and tracks their every post on social media.” India’s proposals add to the growing resistance worldwide against internet behemoths like Google and Facebook, which once flourished largely unimpeded. In Europe, officials last year enacted tough new rules to protect people’s online data, forcing the companies to change some practices. China has long used a system of internet filters, known as the Great Firewall, to block content and shut out global tech companies. And in a 2017 review, The New York Times tallied more than 50 countries that had passed laws in recent years to gain greater control over how their people use the web…..</em>\r\n<em>…In a filing with the ministry last week, Microsoft said that complying with India’s new standards would be “impossible from the process, legal and technology point of view.” The company — whose Hyderabad-born chief executive, Satya Nadella, is a business icon in India — said the proposal lumped together all intermediaries, as varied as social networks and Wi-Fi hot spots, even though each has a different level of control over content that flows through it. In the filing, Microsoft said it would be difficult to screen out gambling content, as the rules would require. Filtering the full range of content demanded by the government would not only violate privacy and freedom of expression, the company wrote, but would also be so challenging that “the cost of even attempting compliance will be prohibitive.”</em>\r\n<em> “WhatsApp cares deeply about creating a space for private conversations online,” Carl Woog, a company spokesman, said at a news conference in New Delhi. He said the proposed rules “would require us to re-architect WhatsApp, leading to a different product, one that would not be fundamentally private.”</em>\r\n<em>….Indian authorities are struggling to deal with inflammatory messages that spread on social platforms. They shut down the entire internet in 2017 in the state of Punjab just before a popular spiritual guru was convicted on rape charges. That did not stop his followers from flooding the streets, and at least 30 people died in the violence.</em>\r\n<em>… One of the biggest cheerleaders for the new rules was Reliance Jio, a fast-growing mobile phone company controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest industrialist. Mr. Ambani, an ally of Mr. Modi, has made no secret of his plans to turn Reliance Jio into an all-purpose information service that offers streaming video and music, messaging, money transfer, online shopping, and home broadband services.</em>\r\n<em>In a filing last week, Reliance Jio said the new rules were necessary to combat “miscreants” and urged the government to ignore free-speech protests. The company also said that encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp, “although perceivably beneficial to users, are detrimental to national interest and hence should not be allowed.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>      </strong><strong>Short read: The two tribes of working life</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Bartleby column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined</a>)\r\nOffice goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: <a name=\"_Hlk536354400\"></a>Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b\">https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n<em>“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia...</em>\r\n<em>Til Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.</em>\r\n<em>Her dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: The Biggest Returns</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: The Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n<em>“</em><em>The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…</em>\r\n<em>…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….</em>\r\n<em>…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>Investment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.</em>\r\n<em>If we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…</em>\r\n<em>….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.</em>\r\n<em>Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book </em><em>Enough</em> with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\n<em>At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”</em>\r\n<em>Enough</em><em>. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', '17th Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '565-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-17 10:37:10', '2019-02-17 10:37:10', '', 565, 'http://marcellus.in/565-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(568, 1, '2019-02-17 10:39:29', '2019-02-17 10:39:29', '<em>Published on: 17th Feb, 2019</em>\r\n<div>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on tribal identity, the science behind junk food addiction, India’s new IT law, the two types of office workers, the lack of evidence for brain training and frugal living.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Tribal World – Group Identity is All</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Amy Chua\r\nSource: Foreign Affairs (<a href=\"https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world\">https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-06-14/tribal-world</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Michael Moss\r\nSource: The New York Times (<a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. <em>“What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”</em>\r\n<em>“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….</em>\r\n<em>...one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…</em>\r\n<em>….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”</em>\r\n<em>“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..</em>\r\n<em>….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”</em>\r\n<em>….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: India Proposes Chinese-Style Internet Censorship</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Vindu Goel</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">Source: The New York Times(<u><a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/14/technology/india-internet-censorship.html</a></u>)</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Indian Government’s proposed amendment to the IT act to regulate content on social media and messaging platforms has triggered a roaring debate among tech companies to freedom-of-speech activists to political parties. Whilst the headline of this NYT piece might have gone too far in comparing it with China (several countries including those from the west have implemented rules to various degrees in this direction), it does raise questions given the timing of the law – weeks before what will undoubtedly be a crucial general election from the perspective of the country’s long term political future.\r\n<em>“…Under the proposed rules, Indian officials could demand that Facebook, Google, Twitter, TikTok and others remove posts or videos that they deem libelous, invasive of privacy, hateful or deceptive. Internet companies would also have to build automated screening tools to block Indians from seeing “unlawful information or content.” Another provision would weaken the privacy protections of messaging services like WhatsApp so that the authorities could trace messages back to their original senders…. </em>\r\n<em>… “The proposed changes have an authoritarian bent,” said Apar Gupta, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital rights group, which plans to challenge the rules in court if they are enacted. “This is very similar to what China does to its citizens, where it polices their every move and tracks their every post on social media.” India’s proposals add to the growing resistance worldwide against internet behemoths like Google and Facebook, which once flourished largely unimpeded. In Europe, officials last year enacted tough new rules to protect people’s online data, forcing the companies to change some practices. China has long used a system of internet filters, known as the Great Firewall, to block content and shut out global tech companies. And in a 2017 review, The New York Times tallied more than 50 countries that had passed laws in recent years to gain greater control over how their people use the web…..</em>\r\n<em>…In a filing with the ministry last week, Microsoft said that complying with India’s new standards would be “impossible from the process, legal and technology point of view.” The company — whose Hyderabad-born chief executive, Satya Nadella, is a business icon in India — said the proposal lumped together all intermediaries, as varied as social networks and Wi-Fi hot spots, even though each has a different level of control over content that flows through it. In the filing, Microsoft said it would be difficult to screen out gambling content, as the rules would require. Filtering the full range of content demanded by the government would not only violate privacy and freedom of expression, the company wrote, but would also be so challenging that “the cost of even attempting compliance will be prohibitive.”</em>\r\n<em> “WhatsApp cares deeply about creating a space for private conversations online,” Carl Woog, a company spokesman, said at a news conference in New Delhi. He said the proposed rules “would require us to re-architect WhatsApp, leading to a different product, one that would not be fundamentally private.”</em>\r\n<em>….Indian authorities are struggling to deal with inflammatory messages that spread on social platforms. They shut down the entire internet in 2017 in the state of Punjab just before a popular spiritual guru was convicted on rape charges. That did not stop his followers from flooding the streets, and at least 30 people died in the violence.</em>\r\n<em>… One of the biggest cheerleaders for the new rules was Reliance Jio, a fast-growing mobile phone company controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest industrialist. Mr. Ambani, an ally of Mr. Modi, has made no secret of his plans to turn Reliance Jio into an all-purpose information service that offers streaming video and music, messaging, money transfer, online shopping, and home broadband services.</em>\r\n<em>In a filing last week, Reliance Jio said the new rules were necessary to combat “miscreants” and urged the government to ignore free-speech protests. The company also said that encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp, “although perceivably beneficial to users, are detrimental to national interest and hence should not be allowed.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>      </strong><strong>Short read: The two tribes of working life</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: The Bartleby column\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/31/the-two-tribes-of-working-life#ampf=undefined</a>)\r\nOffice goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: <a name=\"_Hlk536354400\"></a>Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b\">https://www.ft.com/content/a0166eea-1e41-11e9-a46f-08f9738d6b2b</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n<em>“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia...</em>\r\n<em>Til Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.</em>\r\n<em>Her dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: The Biggest Returns</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: The Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-biggest-returns/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n<em>“</em><em>The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…</em>\r\n<em>…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….</em>\r\n<em>…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>Investment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.</em>\r\n<em>If we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…</em>\r\n<em>….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.</em>\r\n<em>Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book </em><em>Enough</em> with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\n<em>At a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”</em>\r\n<em>Enough</em><em>. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</span></p>\r\n\r\n</div>', '17th Feb 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '565-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-02-17 10:39:29', '2019-02-17 10:39:29', '', 565, 'http://marcellus.in/565-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(582, 1, '2019-03-03 05:46:41', '2019-03-03 05:46:41', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)\r\nMicrobiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:46:41', '2019-03-03 05:46:41', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(572, 1, '2019-02-22 16:21:40', '2019-02-22 16:21:40', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 22 Feb, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The more we get plugged into social &amp; mass media, the harder it becomes to escape the echo chamber of consensus thought. In stark contrast, original thinkers – in Investing and beyond – have wide ranging interests beyond their profession, have a yearning to alter the status quo and a high rate of idea generation.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<strong><span style=\"color: red;\"> Marcellus is offering a six month internship to a youngster who wants to learn investment analysis under our senior analysts:</span> <a href=\"/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>““Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.” </em>– <strong>John Maynard Keynes</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…In the study, we had 163 participants complete a classic test of “divergent thinking” called the alternate uses task, which asks people to think of new and unusual uses for objects. As they completed the test, they underwent fMRI scans, which measures blood flow to parts of the brain.</em>\r\n<em>The task assesses people’s ability to diverge from the common uses of an object. For example, in the study, we showed participants different objects on a screen, such as a gum wrapper or a sock, and asked to come up with creative ways to use them. Some ideas were more creative than others. For the sock, one participant suggested using it to warm your feet – the common use for a sock – while another participant suggested using it as a water filtration system.</em>\r\n<em>Importantly, we found that people who did better on this task also tended to report having more creative hobbies and achievements, which is consistent with previous studies showing that the task measures general creative thinking ability…”</em> <em><strong>– Roger Beaty, New Study Reveals Why Some People Are More Creative Than Others, 2018,</strong></em>    </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">(Source: <a href=\"http://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-why-some-people-are-more-creative-than-others-90065\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-why-some-people-are-more-creative-than-others-90065</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Trapped in the echo chamber</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The irony of contemporary urban life is that the more connected we are to each other through social media, the greater the likelihood that all of us will be locked in the same echo chamber and thus mouth the same messages. To the extent that the job of a professional investor is to think originally, to think independently, that job has arguably been made harder by the rise of both social and popular media. Therefore, are there methods which we can use to swing the odds in our favour? Given the costs – social and financial – of deviating from consensus, can we make it easier for ourselves to think independently? My friend, Anupam Gupta, and I recently wrote a column on this subject for The Ken. </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Click here to access the full column: <a href=\"https://the-ken.com/story/the-power-of-thinking-differently/?utm_source=tkow_story_v2&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=daily_newsletter\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://the-ken.com/story/the-power-of-thinking-differently/?utm_source=tkow_story_v2&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=daily_newsletter</a>\r\n</span></em>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What follows below are some excerpts from that column.</span></em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Underlying motivations matter</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we look around at the high achievers around us, we see two broad personality types. Type 1 people are striving to achieve new heights within an existing system whereas Type 2 people are challenging the existing system and being a force for change. Both are perfectly sound motivations and most people that we know fall in one of these two buckets. For example, the cricket superstar, Virat Kohli, the son of a criminal lawyer from west Delhi, is clearly driven by the need to becoming the best cricketer on the planet. He has worked very hard to achieve his goals and his weight training, diet and fitness regime in particular has set new standards of physical fitness in Indian cricket.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The celebrated author, Arundhati Roy, on the other hand is driven by the need to speak out against the establishment and in favour of the underdog. Roy, the daughter of renowned social rights activist Aruna Roy, is fundamentally driven by the need to challenge the status quo because of her belief that the status quo gives a raw deal to many groups in Indian society. Roy’s books have brought her fame and fortune but those outcomes are not what drive her to write. Writing is her chosen medium with which to change the world. Roy’s views on the Indian state, the unrestrained descriptions of sexuality in her books have made her the target of abuse by Indian nationalists and conservatives but that doesn’t frazzle her probably because she did not set out in the first place to seek popularity.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Virat Kohli strives for excellence within a pre-existing system (for elite cricketers). Roy strives to bring about change in the system. Both of them, arguably, make our lives richer. However, a Type 1 personality like Kohli does not have to deal with shaking up the status quo and taking on the establishment. Whereas, the Type 2 personality has already broken away from conformity and therefore is already thinking differently. Creative thinking comes more easily to those who want to change the status quo and have a visceral desire to shake up the establishment.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Interests beyond Finance and Investing matter</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In his superb study of original thought, “Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World” (2016), American academic, Adam Grant, notes that the most original thinkers in science – Nobel Prize winning scientists – tend to have the most diverse interests well beyond their scientific pursuits:\r\n<em>“In a recent study comparing every Nobel Prize-winning scientist from 1901 to 2015 with typical scientists of the same era, both groups attained deep expertise in their respective fields of study. But the Nobel Prize winners were dramatically more likely to be involved in the arts than less accomplished scientists. Here’s what 15 researchers at Michigan State University found about engagement in the arts among Nobel Prize winners relative to ordinary scientists….”</em> [see table below]</span></em></p>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-573\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/2202.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"611\" height=\"295\" />\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We believe that this point can also be applied in the context of the investing profession. Investors who are open to cultural and/or professional influences beyond their comfort zone are much more likely to be original thinkers. If you have grown up in financial centres like Mumbai, Singapore or London and these cities – and the lifestyles of the people in it – is all that you see, not only is it harder for you to think originally, it also tougher for you to break away from the conventional markers of success in corporate life. Ultimately, the markers of success which we yearn for end up anchoring our thinking. To have alternative aspirations, one needs to cultivate alternative passions and alternative markers of achievement beyond Finance and Investing.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Working hard and producing lots of ideas helps</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Stanford professor Robert Sutton says that <em>“Originals will come up with many ideas that are strange mutations, dead ends and utter failures. The cost is worthwhile because they also generate a larger pool of ideas – especially novel ideas.” (Source: Weird ideas that worked – 11.5 practices for promoting, managing &amp; sustaining innovation (2001) by Robert Sutton)</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The film director Satyajit Ray directed 36 movies in a 35 year career stretching from the mid-1950s to the early 1990s. In addition he published over two dozen books in Bengali (short stories, novels and poetry) and three books analyzing cinema (in India and around the world). From this phenomenal body of work emerged a few masterworks which have defined filmmaking in the twentieth century. The Apu Trilogy of movies made in the 1950s are regarded as a landmark in global cinema – its portrayal of a rural upbringing in Bengal followed by migration to Kolkata and the highs and lows of married life and parenthood are without equal in Indian cinema. Charulata (1964) is regarded as Ray’s best movie and like the Apu Trilogy garnered awards at home and abroad. More than the awards, Satyajit Ray’s creativity and intense work ethic laid down a template for excellence which paved the way for subsequent generations of film makers like Shyam Benegal and Vishal Bhardwaj. They understood that they did not have to confirm to the norms of Bollywood to build a career in filmmaking.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Don’t worry about being late</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you seek speedy completion of the task at hand, you will almost always produce something which is a rehash of pre-existing ideas. You have to let your mind meander for the original idea to hit you. Some of the most creative equity analysts we have worked with used to routinely produced research notes late regardless of what carrots and sticks were waved at them. Like Arundhati Roy, these creatives are not driven to seek the approval of others and the reward which comes from that. For them creative work is its own reward.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Leonardo da Vinci started painting the Monalisa in 1503 and then left it incomplete. He completed the masterpiece just before his death in 1519. By procrastinating for 16 years, da Vinci significantly increased his chances of producing a masterwork. As art historian William Pannapacker explains:<em> “Leonardo’s studies of how light strikes a sphere, for example, enable the continuous modeling of the “Mona lisa” and “St.John the Baptist”. His work in optics might have delayed a project but his final achievements in painting depended on the experiments…Far from being a distraction like many of his contemporaries thought – they represent a lifetime of productive brainstorming, a private working out of the ideas on which his more public work depended…If creative procrastination, selectively applied, prevented Leonardo from finishing a few commissions – of minor importance when one is struggling with the inner workings of the cosmos – then only someone who is a complete captive of the modern cult of productive mediocrity…could fault him for it…But genius is uncontrolled and uncontrollable. You cannot produce a work of genius according to a schedule or an outline.”</em> (Source: “How to procrastinate like Leonardo da Vinci” by William A.Pannapacker, 2009, The Chronicle of Higher Education)</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The most successful investors are often those who are least plugged into social media. The most successful investors are often geographically located a million miles away from the big financial centres. The most successful investors are often very passionate about things which have nothing to do with Finance and Investing. At the peak of his investing career in the 1970s, Warren Buffett helped create a Pullitzer Prize winning newspaper in Omaha. George Soros has spent serious time and money championing democracy and free markets in Eastern Europe for the past 30 years. Some of India’s most successful investors are also amongst the best Bridge players in the country. Original thinkers – in investing and beyond - neither care for consensus opinions in their specific area of expertise nor confine themselves to mastering only one discipline.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Non-Conformism Underpins Original Thought', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:41:58', '2019-11-01 06:41:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=572', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(581, 1, '2019-03-03 06:16:31', '2019-03-03 06:16:31', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Scientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '3rd-mar-2019', '', '', '2019-03-03 06:17:49', '2019-03-03 06:17:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=581', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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(580, 1, '2019-03-01 13:43:01', '2019-03-01 13:43:01', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 1 March, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>As local kirana stores start winding up in India, the conditions required for organised retail to operate profitably are coming together nicely. Whilst this does not necessarily mean that all organised sector retailers will be as profitable as a Titan or a Dmart or a Trent, it does mean that we will see more profitable listed retailers in India. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Though not a single household household was wired for electricity in 1880, nearly 100 percent of US urban homes were wired by 1940, and in the same time interval the percentage of urban homes with clean running piped water and sewer pipes for waste disposal had reached 94 percent. More than 80 percent of urban homes in 1940 had interior flush toilets, 73 percent had gas for heating and cooking…In short, the 1870 houses were isolated from the rest of the world, but 1940 houses were ‘networked’, most having the five connections of electricity, gas, telephone, water and sewer…Networking inherently implies equality. Everyone, rich and poor, is plugged into the same electric, water, sewer, gas and telephone network. The poor may only be able to hook up years after the rich, but eventually they receive the same access.”</em> – <strong>Robert Gordon in “The Rise &amp; Fall of American Growth” (2016)</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<strong>The High Street is changing in India</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">30 years ago when I was a newspaper delivery boy in south London I saw the English high street change. Of the 60-odd shops to whom I would deliver the evening newspaper, the first to shut down were the travel agents (disrupted by the rise in online travel bookings). Then by the early noughties the convenience stores (which used to sell candies, biscuits, bus passes, stamps, newspapers, etc) started shutting down disrupted not so much by online but by: (a) the large supermarket which had opened a couple of kilometres down the road; and (b) the convenience-store format rolled out by the large supermarkets for local neighbourhoods such as the one I grew up in. An additional challenge for the owners of the convenience stores – which were usually run by Gujarati migrants from Uganda (where the despot, Idi Amin, had persecuted these people in the early 1970s) – were that their children were landing lucrative jobs in the City of London and hence uninterested in running the family business.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After that the local restaurants started shutting down and were replaced by franchisees of chains like Papa Johns, KFC, etc. 30 years on from my newspaper delivery days the only survivors are the barber shops/beauty salons, the greengrocers, butchers and florists (people still prefer buying these things from local shops rather than the chain stores). The convenience stores have been replaced by shops selling mobile phones, cafes and charity shops (offering second hand clothes/books for the needy).</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the high street near my flat in suburban Mumbai I am now seeing the same evolution pan out. The local Dmart (the first Dmart in the country in fact) is booming. Another Dmart was opened in the adjacent neighbourhood eight years ago and that too is bustling. The casualties are the local kirana stores. Last month Reliance Stores (no relation of the listed Reliance businesses) wound up. A year ago a smaller kirana store had pulled down its shutters for the last time. Only one kirana store in my neighbourhood has survived – Cheap &amp; Best has remodelled itself into a 7/11-type convenience store format. In fact the owner has acquired the adjacent store, broken down the walls and create a cheap &amp; cheerful format which has allowed him to compete with Dmart.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The local eateries too face rising competition not just from Starbucks and Dominos (which are packed even at midnight) but from the organised ice cream parlours (Haagen Dazs, Baskin Robbins, Naturals) and from Indian fast food chains (Chaayos, Theobroma, Busago). It doesn’t take much to figure out who will win this unequal fight. Of the 60-odd stores in my local high street in Mumbai, only a third are now independent operations; the chain-store format is already the dominant format in my high street in Mumbai. My feeble attempts to keep the local chemist in operation - even as a better stocked chain store (Wellness Forever) down the road empties out his customers - are not going to be successful.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>What exactly is the problem ailing the kirana store?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Two years ago I met an FMCG distributor for HUL and Dabur in another suburb of Mumbai. He predicted the end of old-style kirana store retailing in India and therefore of people like him (who supply the kirana stores). As per him the squeeze is being exerted by: (a) modern retailers like Dmart who are buying directly from major FMCG brands at better prices than the kirana store can get; (b) online retailers like Amazon and Flipkart who are supplying basic home essentials (cutlery, crockery, stationary, toys, etc usually imported from China) cheaper than any unorganised local store can; and (c) the modernisation of the supply-chain post GST wherein it has become much harder to avoid taxes and thus boost profit margins. Furthermore, the progeny of kirana store owners and distributors no longer want to toil for 15 hours a day in a dingy establishment; their aspiration is a job in an air-conditioned office – typically a call centre or a KPO.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This distributor understood that it is neither FDI nor Amazon which is killing the Indian kirana store; it is the networking of a vast economy which is hurting the informal sector in general. To quote from my 13<sup>th</sup> August 2018 piece (click here for the piece:<a href=\"/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/</a>):</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“Small/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality. However, as the quote shown at the beginning of the note from Robert Gordon suggests, the installation of “networks” – rail, electric, water, gas and telephone – in America between 1840 and 1920 rapidly formalised that economy and catalysed the rise of consumerism.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">India seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%). The number of broadband users has increased from 3 million to 363 million (CAGR of 70%). A decade ago around 50 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 12%). 15 years ago only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises. Businesses that were local in nature are trying to become regional; those that were regional are seeking to become national. In fact, from what I see on my travels, many of the passengers taking low cost flights and staying in Oyo Rooms or in 3-star hotels are regional businessmen trying to grow their business elsewhere in the country. GST, looking beyond of the short term disruption caused by it, looks as if it might be another step forward in creating a more integrated economy.”</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the local kirana stores wind up, the conditions required for organised retail to succeed in India are coming together. Whilst this does not necessarily mean that all organised sector retailers will be as profitable as a Titan or a Dmart or a Trent, it does mean that we will see more profitable listed retailers in India. In specific, it is clear that the big Indian business houses (Reliance, Tata, Birla) have now set their eyes on building large, logistically efficient retail operations run along the lines of a Dmart/ Titan/ Trent.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such an expansion in organised retail is bound to create jobs. Those jobs will be desperately required as the 100-150 million people who work in the informal retail sector face existential issues. Such an expansion will also change the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers in India. So far the manufacturers had ruled the roost as the retailers were small and fragmented. However, as companies like Reliance Retail and Dmart grow, they will pull away profit margins from the big FMCG companies and pass on more of the working capital strain on to the FMCG giants (at present many of the FMCG giants have negative working capital cycles). Therefore, the ROCE hit for FMCG giants might be substantial in the years to come.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em></span></em></p>', 'Marcellus: Exit the Kirana Store, Enter the Supermarket', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-exit-the-kirana-store-enter-the-supermarket', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:41:20', '2019-11-01 06:41:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=580', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(579, 1, '2019-03-01 05:35:17', '2019-03-01 05:35:17', '<h4>February 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Click here </a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4></h4>\r\n<h4>March 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Newsletter_March_2019.pdf\"> Click Here </a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-01 05:35:17', '2019-03-01 05:35:17', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1999, 1, '2019-10-24 07:23:58', '2019-10-24 07:23:58', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 12 April, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Over the last 40 years, India has seen the largest internal migration that any country has witnessed in any era. Even on conservative assumptions, India’s 100 million internal migrants are sending ‘home’ vast sums of money, eight times larger than the Government of India’s healthcare and education budgets combined.</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Work-related migration is what people associate ‘migration’ with…The Economic Survey of India in 2017 estimated this figure to cross a 100 million…the migrant workforce has been conservatively estimated to comprise a fifth of India’s total workforce. In some states, like Kerala and Bihar, outmigration rates are among the highest in the world. There is also clear evidence that work-related migration rates increased since the 1990s, coinciding with increased economic growth rates and the globalisation of the Indian economy.” </em>― <strong>Chinmay Tumbe</strong> in ‘India Moving: A History of Migration’ (2018)</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Internal Migration: India’s biggest intangible Asset</strong>\nThere is a popular belief in educated circles in India that Indian politicians are central to India’s advancement. The data belies that belief. In each of the last five decades India’s GDP growth has been better than in the decade before. Assuming that it is not the sagacity of our political leaders which has transformed us into the world’s sixth largest economy, what exactly has been the driver of this sustained acceleration in GDP growth? After all, it isn’t as if we have invested extensively in the education, health &amp; safety of our people – India’s dismal showing year after year in the UN’s Human Development Index (ranked amongst the 60 lowest countries in the world and that too thanks to South India dragging up India’s score) highlights the country’s appalling deficits in that regard.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">One notable facet of India’s renaissance stares us so obviously in the face that we tend to overlook it. Over the last 40 years India has arguably seen the world’s greatest internal migration seen in any country and in any era – greater (both in absolute numbers and relative to the broader population) even than the westward migration of people which created the United States in the nineteenth century. As per India’s 2017 Economic Survey, internal migration accounts for 100 million people in India i.e. nearly a fifth of India’s labour force. As Chinmay Tumbe says in his excellent book ‘India Moving: A History of Migration’, <em>“In 2011, a quarter of India’s urban population was enumerated as being migrants…”</em> In fact, India’s internal migratory workforce is nearly four times larger than the more celebrated and obviously more prosperous Indian diaspora spread around the world.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The economic impact of internal migration</strong>\nThe rise in internal migration in India – basically the movement of vast numbers of people from the impoverished North and East of the country to the more prosperous South and West of the country – accelerated sharply post-1991 as economic liberalisation created heightened incentives for workers to move. The economic impact of this migration has been enormous.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The minimum wage in most of the Western and Southern Indian states is around Rs 15,000 per month. Even if we assume that the average migrant worker is working at a wage of Rs 10,000 per month (due to employers who pay them in cash and keep them in the black economy), the total earnings of India’s internal migrant workers is around US$170 billion per annum i.e. around 6% of India’s GDP. Assuming further that these workers are sending home (to Northern and Eastern India) around a third of these earnings implies that nearly 2% of India’s GDP is being transferred from the most prosperous states in the country to the least prosperous.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Based on the Union Budget 2019 documents, the Government of India’s budgeted spend on healthcare plus education is around Rs 150,000 crores or US$22 billion i.e. less than 1% of GDP! The fact that even on conservative assumptions, India’s internal migrant workers are sending “home” a sum of money nearly eight times larger not only underscores how successive Governments have let the country down but also how we as a society fail to celebrate the most enterprising and industrious people in our country.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">India’s internal migration has had two other positive economic consequences:</span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. In country where successive governments have failed to provide both an economic safety net and jobs (or even skilling), India’s most vulnerable people have taken matters in their own hands. In doing so, they have made the Indian unskilled labour market highly responsive to economic signals. To quote from Chinmay Tumbe’s book, <em>“The word ‘seasonal’ refers to the gap in the agricultural calendar where people begin to migrate outside for work, usually between November and April. These are India’s most vulnerable migration stream affecting 5% of households and over 10 million migrants. Relatively poorer and landless households, STs (Scheduled Tribes) and SCs (Scheduled Castes) are over-represented in this form of migration…a third of the seasonal migrants in India work in the construction sector, a fifth work in agricultural activities and a sixth in manufacturing activities.” </em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. Not just labour, capital too in India is mobile in a manner which would be the envy of any European government (the EU has tried in vain to promote internal migration for the past 30 years and ironically is unravelling due to migration into the EU from people outside). In most of India, risk capital and entrepreneurial flair is provided by four highly mobile communities – the Sindhis, the Marwaris, the Gujaratis and the Muslims. As early as 1844, the Times of India noted, <em>“These Marwaris leave their own country for the purpose of trading and they are spread all over Hindostan. A Marwari’s shop maybe seen in a hamlet…in fact, were you to search all of Hindostan, it would be difficult to find an agricultural village without a Marwari. When they arrive here they commence by selling gram, and in the course of four or five years, they become opulent bankers.” </em></li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As we approach another General Election, we understand that several of our clients are fretting about the outcome of the elections. At Marcellus we remain confident about the ability of Indians to move forward with or – as is usually the case – without enlightened leadership.</span></em></p>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: India\'s Real Economic Dynamo - The Internal Migrant', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '707-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-24 07:23:58', '2019-10-24 07:23:58', '', 707, 'http://marcellus.in/707-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(584, 1, '2019-03-03 05:50:49', '2019-03-03 05:50:49', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:50:49', '2019-03-03 05:50:49', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(583, 1, '2019-03-03 05:47:47', '2019-03-03 05:47:47', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:47:47', '2019-03-03 05:47:47', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(585, 1, '2019-03-03 05:52:07', '2019-03-03 05:52:07', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:52:07', '2019-03-03 05:52:07', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(586, 1, '2019-03-03 05:52:31', '2019-03-03 05:52:31', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:52:31', '2019-03-03 05:52:31', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(587, 1, '2019-03-03 05:55:04', '2019-03-03 05:55:04', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong></em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:55:04', '2019-03-03 05:55:04', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(588, 1, '2019-03-03 05:57:01', '2019-03-03 05:57:01', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong></em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:57:01', '2019-03-03 05:57:01', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(589, 1, '2019-03-03 05:59:26', '2019-03-03 05:59:26', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong></em><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 05:59:26', '2019-03-03 05:59:26', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(590, 1, '2019-03-03 06:00:45', '2019-03-03 06:00:45', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>3.       </em><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\nA superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\nScientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\nA year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 06:00:45', '2019-03-03 06:00:45', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(591, 1, '2019-03-03 06:13:16', '2019-03-03 06:13:16', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Scientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\nWith Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 06:13:16', '2019-03-03 06:13:16', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(592, 1, '2019-03-03 06:16:23', '2019-03-03 06:16:23', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\r\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\r\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\r\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\r\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\r\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\r\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\r\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\r\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\r\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Scientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\r\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\r\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tim Harford\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\r\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\r\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\r\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\r\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\r\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\r\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-03 06:16:23', '2019-03-03 06:16:23', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(595, 1, '2019-10-24 07:16:59', '2019-10-24 07:16:59', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 1 March, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>As local kirana stores start winding up in India, the conditions required for organised retail to operate profitably are coming together nicely. Whilst this does not necessarily mean that all organised sector retailers will be as profitable as a Titan or a Dmart or a Trent, it does mean that we will see more profitable listed retailers in India. </strong>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Though not a single household household was wired for electricity in 1880, nearly 100 percent of US urban homes were wired by 1940, and in the same time interval the percentage of urban homes with clean running piped water and sewer pipes for waste disposal had reached 94 percent. More than 80 percent of urban homes in 1940 had interior flush toilets, 73 percent had gas for heating and cooking…In short, the 1870 houses were isolated from the rest of the world, but 1940 houses were ‘networked’, most having the five connections of electricity, gas, telephone, water and sewer…Networking inherently implies equality. Everyone, rich and poor, is plugged into the same electric, water, sewer, gas and telephone network. The poor may only be able to hook up years after the rich, but eventually they receive the same access.”</em> – <strong>Robert Gordon in “The Rise &amp; Fall of American Growth” (2016)</strong>\n\n<strong>The High Street is changing in India</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">30 years ago when I was a newspaper delivery boy in south London I saw the English high street change. Of the 60-odd shops to whom I would deliver the evening newspaper, the first to shut down were the travel agents (disrupted by the rise in online travel bookings). Then by the early noughties the convenience stores (which used to sell candies, biscuits, bus passes, stamps, newspapers, etc) started shutting down disrupted not so much by online but by: (a) the large supermarket which had opened a couple of kilometres down the road; and (b) the convenience-store format rolled out by the large supermarkets for local neighbourhoods such as the one I grew up in. An additional challenge for the owners of the convenience stores – which were usually run by Gujarati migrants from Uganda (where the despot, Idi Amin, had persecuted these people in the early 1970s) – were that their children were landing lucrative jobs in the City of London and hence uninterested in running the family business.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After that the local restaurants started shutting down and were replaced by franchisees of chains like Papa Johns, KFC, etc. 30 years on from my newspaper delivery days the only survivors are the barber shops/beauty salons, the greengrocers, butchers and florists (people still prefer buying these things from local shops rather than the chain stores). The convenience stores have been replaced by shops selling mobile phones, cafes and charity shops (offering second hand clothes/books for the needy).\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the high street near my flat in suburban Mumbai I am now seeing the same evolution pan out. The local Dmart (the first Dmart in the country in fact) is booming. Another Dmart was opened in the adjacent neighbourhood eight years ago and that too is bustling. The casualties are the local kirana stores. Last month Reliance Stores (no relation of the listed Reliance businesses) wound up. A year ago a smaller kirana store had pulled down its shutters for the last time. Only one kirana store in my neighbourhood has survived – Cheap &amp; Best has remodelled itself into a 7/11-type convenience store format. In fact the owner has acquired the adjacent store, broken down the walls and create a cheap &amp; cheerful format which has allowed him to compete with Dmart.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The local eateries too face rising competition not just from Starbucks and Dominos (which are packed even at midnight) but from the organised ice cream parlours (Haagen Dazs, Baskin Robbins, Naturals) and from Indian fast food chains (Chaayos, Theobroma, Busago). It doesn’t take much to figure out who will win this unequal fight. Of the 60-odd stores in my local high street in Mumbai, only a third are now independent operations; the chain-store format is already the dominant format in my high street in Mumbai. My feeble attempts to keep the local chemist in operation - even as a better stocked chain store (Wellness Forever) down the road empties out his customers - are not going to be successful.\n\n<strong>What exactly is the problem ailing the kirana store?</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Two years ago I met an FMCG distributor for HUL and Dabur in another suburb of Mumbai. He predicted the end of old-style kirana store retailing in India and therefore of people like him (who supply the kirana stores). As per him the squeeze is being exerted by: (a) modern retailers like Dmart who are buying directly from major FMCG brands at better prices than the kirana store can get; (b) online retailers like Amazon and Flipkart who are supplying basic home essentials (cutlery, crockery, stationary, toys, etc usually imported from China) cheaper than any unorganised local store can; and (c) the modernisation of the supply-chain post GST wherein it has become much harder to avoid taxes and thus boost profit margins. Furthermore, the progeny of kirana store owners and distributors no longer want to toil for 15 hours a day in a dingy establishment; their aspiration is a job in an air-conditioned office – typically a call centre or a KPO.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This distributor understood that it is neither FDI nor Amazon which is killing the Indian kirana store; it is the networking of a vast economy which is hurting the informal sector in general. To quote from my 13<sup>th</sup> August 2018 piece (click here for the piece:<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/</a>):\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“Small/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality. However, as the quote shown at the beginning of the note from Robert Gordon suggests, the installation of “networks” – rail, electric, water, gas and telephone – in America between 1840 and 1920 rapidly formalised that economy and catalysed the rise of consumerism.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">India seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%). The number of broadband users has increased from 3 million to 363 million (CAGR of 70%). A decade ago around 50 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 12%). 15 years ago only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises. Businesses that were local in nature are trying to become regional; those that were regional are seeking to become national. In fact, from what I see on my travels, many of the passengers taking low cost flights and staying in Oyo Rooms or in 3-star hotels are regional businessmen trying to grow their business elsewhere in the country. GST, looking beyond of the short term disruption caused by it, looks as if it might be another step forward in creating a more integrated economy.”\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the local kirana stores wind up, the conditions required for organised retail to succeed in India are coming together. Whilst this does not necessarily mean that all organised sector retailers will be as profitable as a Titan or a Dmart or a Trent, it does mean that we will see more profitable listed retailers in India. In specific, it is clear that the big Indian business houses (Reliance, Tata, Birla) have now set their eyes on building large, logistically efficient retail operations run along the lines of a Dmart/ Titan/ Trent.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such an expansion in organised retail is bound to create jobs. Those jobs will be desperately required as the 100-150 million people who work in the informal retail sector face existential issues. Such an expansion will also change the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers in India. So far the manufacturers had ruled the roost as the retailers were small and fragmented. However, as companies like Reliance Retail and Dmart grow, they will pull away profit margins from the big FMCG companies and pass on more of the working capital strain on to the FMCG giants (at present many of the FMCG giants have negative working capital cycles). Therefore, the ROCE hit for FMCG giants might be substantial in the years to come.\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae48bc0f0b&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>', 'Marcellus: Exit the Kirana Store, Enter the Supermarket', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '580-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-24 07:16:59', '2019-10-24 07:16:59', '', 580, 'http://marcellus.in/580-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2001, 1, '2019-10-06 04:46:49', '2019-10-06 04:46:49', 'In many aspects of our lives, we tend to take certain age-old practices for granted without understanding the underlying principles and context, including our own world of investing - whilst principles of investing are broadly applicable across the world, there are nuances in each market which require a more contextual application. In this article, John F. Sullivan, a former US Army officer who served in China takes a sceptical view of Sun Tzu’s military strategy as expounded in his book - ‘The Art of War’ in terms of its universal applicability across time and place. Indeed, John highlights the fact Chinese military leaders over time themselves have questioned Sun Tzu whereas the West continues to treat his writings as the holy grail of military strategy.\r\n“The main problem, though, is that The Art of War is no longer viewed as merely one entrant within a larger arena of competing strategic ideas. For too many, especially in the West, Sun Tzu is often the lone voice speaking on behalf of millennia of Chinese strategic and military thinking. Michael Handel’s Masters of War, which examines the similarities and differences between Eastern and Western strategic philosophies, exemplifies this issue. While Handel focuses primarily on Clausewitz in examining the Western view of strategy, he also supplements his assessment with the writings of a diverse group of competing theorists from vastly different eras, such as Thucydides, Polybius, Machiavelli, Napoleon, Jomini, Mahan, and Corbett. The Eastern side of the equation focuses exclusively on Sun Tzu, with the exception of a smattering of Mao Zedong quotes. The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box. Within the curriculum of prestigious strategic studies courses such as the U.S. Army War College and Yale’s Program in Grand Strategy, Sun Tzu retains his status as the sole representative of the entire corpus of Chinese strategic thinking.\r\nThis skeptical stance does not suggest that there is nothing of value to be gained from continued study of The Art of War, nor that we should purge it from strategic studies syllabi. There is still much to be admired in the work. “Do not depend on the enemy not coming; depend rather on being ready for him,” should be carved into granite above the main entrance to each of the service’s war colleges.[14] Sun Tzu’s admonition that “a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined to defeat fights in the hope of winning,” should be affixed to the cubicle of every staff officer in the Pentagon.[15] But we err in our unchallenged assumption that Sun Tzu also provides us a viable roadmap to achieving these goals. Despite the prevailing conventional wisdom, the text is much more reflective of the character of warfare during the early Warring States era than a treatise on the unchanging nature of war. If we insist on clinging to the false narrative of Sun Tzu’s enduring relevance, we are destined to fare no better in our quest to master strategy than the oblivious archers of Yue.”', 'Notes from a Sun Tzu skeptic', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'notes-from-a-sun-tzu-skeptic', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:17:51', '2019-11-04 07:17:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2001', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(707, 1, '2019-04-12 15:08:55', '2019-04-12 15:08:55', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 12 April, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Over the last 40 years, India has seen the largest internal migration that any country has witnessed in any era. Even on conservative assumptions, India’s 100 million internal migrants are sending ‘home’ vast sums of money, eight times larger than the Government of India’s healthcare and education budgets combined.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Work-related migration is what people associate ‘migration’ with…The Economic Survey of India in 2017 estimated this figure to cross a 100 million…the migrant workforce has been conservatively estimated to comprise a fifth of India’s total workforce. In some states, like Kerala and Bihar, outmigration rates are among the highest in the world. There is also clear evidence that work-related migration rates increased since the 1990s, coinciding with increased economic growth rates and the globalisation of the Indian economy.” </em>― <strong>Chinmay Tumbe</strong> in ‘India Moving: A History of Migration’ (2018)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Internal Migration: India’s biggest intangible Asset</strong>\r\nThere is a popular belief in educated circles in India that Indian politicians are central to India’s advancement. The data belies that belief. In each of the last five decades India’s GDP growth has been better than in the decade before. Assuming that it is not the sagacity of our political leaders which has transformed us into the world’s sixth largest economy, what exactly has been the driver of this sustained acceleration in GDP growth? After all, it isn’t as if we have invested extensively in the education, health &amp; safety of our people – India’s dismal showing year after year in the UN’s Human Development Index (ranked amongst the 60 lowest countries in the world and that too thanks to South India dragging up India’s score) highlights the country’s appalling deficits in that regard.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">One notable facet of India’s renaissance stares us so obviously in the face that we tend to overlook it. Over the last 40 years India has arguably seen the world’s greatest internal migration seen in any country and in any era – greater (both in absolute numbers and relative to the broader population) even than the westward migration of people which created the United States in the nineteenth century. As per India’s 2017 Economic Survey, internal migration accounts for 100 million people in India i.e. nearly a fifth of India’s labour force. As Chinmay Tumbe says in his excellent book ‘India Moving: A History of Migration’, <em>“In 2011, a quarter of India’s urban population was enumerated as being migrants…”</em> In fact, India’s internal migratory workforce is nearly four times larger than the more celebrated and obviously more prosperous Indian diaspora spread around the world.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The economic impact of internal migration</strong>\r\nThe rise in internal migration in India – basically the movement of vast numbers of people from the impoverished North and East of the country to the more prosperous South and West of the country – accelerated sharply post-1991 as economic liberalisation created heightened incentives for workers to move. The economic impact of this migration has been enormous.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The minimum wage in most of the Western and Southern Indian states is around Rs 15,000 per month. Even if we assume that the average migrant worker is working at a wage of Rs 10,000 per month (due to employers who pay them in cash and keep them in the black economy), the total earnings of India’s internal migrant workers is around US$170 billion per annum i.e. around 6% of India’s GDP. Assuming further that these workers are sending home (to Northern and Eastern India) around a third of these earnings implies that nearly 2% of India’s GDP is being transferred from the most prosperous states in the country to the least prosperous.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Based on the Union Budget 2019 documents, the Government of India’s budgeted spend on healthcare plus education is around Rs 150,000 crores or US$22 billion i.e. less than 1% of GDP! The fact that even on conservative assumptions, India’s internal migrant workers are sending “home” a sum of money nearly eight times larger not only underscores how successive Governments have let the country down but also how we as a society fail to celebrate the most enterprising and industrious people in our country.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">India’s internal migration has had two other positive economic consequences:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. In country where successive governments have failed to provide both an economic safety net and jobs (or even skilling), India’s most vulnerable people have taken matters in their own hands. In doing so, they have made the Indian unskilled labour market highly responsive to economic signals. To quote from Chinmay Tumbe’s book, <em>“The word ‘seasonal’ refers to the gap in the agricultural calendar where people begin to migrate outside for work, usually between November and April. These are India’s most vulnerable migration stream affecting 5% of households and over 10 million migrants. Relatively poorer and landless households, STs (Scheduled Tribes) and SCs (Scheduled Castes) are over-represented in this form of migration…a third of the seasonal migrants in India work in the construction sector, a fifth work in agricultural activities and a sixth in manufacturing activities.” </em></span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. Not just labour, capital too in India is mobile in a manner which would be the envy of any European government (the EU has tried in vain to promote internal migration for the past 30 years and ironically is unravelling due to migration into the EU from people outside). In most of India, risk capital and entrepreneurial flair is provided by four highly mobile communities – the Sindhis, the Marwaris, the Gujaratis and the Muslims. As early as 1844, the Times of India noted, <em>“These Marwaris leave their own country for the purpose of trading and they are spread all over Hindostan. A Marwari’s shop maybe seen in a hamlet…in fact, were you to search all of Hindostan, it would be difficult to find an agricultural village without a Marwari. When they arrive here they commence by selling gram, and in the course of four or five years, they become opulent bankers.” </em></span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As we approach another General Election, we understand that several of our clients are fretting about the outcome of the elections. At Marcellus we remain confident about the ability of Indians to move forward with or – as is usually the case – without enlightened leadership.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: India\'s Real Economic Dynamo - The Internal Migrant', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-indias-real-economic-dynamo-the-internal-migrant', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:38:22', '2019-11-01 06:38:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=707', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(599, 1, '2018-11-08 23:39:08', '2018-11-08 23:39:08', 'Salil joins Marcellus from Premji Invest, India’s largest family office by assets under management, where he spent 6 years as a senior member of the team that managed ~US$2bn in listed equities. Prior to that, Salil worked for IDFC Securities, a prominent equity brokerage in Mumbai, where he came to be known as one of India’s leading analysts for core economy sectors. Over a career spanning 12 years in equities, he has tracked multiple sectors, including industrials, infrastructure, utilities, insurance, cement, metals and logistics.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nQualifications: Salil is a Chartered Accountant and a Post Graduate Diploma in Business Management from NMIMS, Mumbai. He completed his graduation in Commerce from Mumbai University', 'Salil Desai, CA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'salil-desai', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:08:25', '2020-04-16 12:08:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=team&#038;p=599', 0, 'team', '', 0),
(612, 1, '2019-03-10 13:25:33', '2019-03-10 13:25:33', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This weeks read focuses on Parents who are commercializing their kids lives on Instagram, Increase in lifespan makes it more important for better financial planning and China\'s growing technological prowess.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '10th-march-2019', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:48:06', '2019-03-17 13:48:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=612', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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(613, 1, '2019-03-10 12:18:46', '2019-03-10 12:18:46', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n\r\nParents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:\r\n\r\n<em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\nClothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:\r\n\r\n<em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\n\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:\r\n\r\n<em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n\r\nAs lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.\r\n\r\n<em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\n\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:\r\n\r\n<em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>\r\n<ol start=\"5\">\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n\r\nThis perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\n\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:18:46', '2019-03-10 12:18:46', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(615, 1, '2019-03-10 12:45:58', '2019-03-10 12:45:58', '<em>Published on: 3rd Mar, 2019</em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the influence of germs on psychology, the power of not caring in investing, job satisfaction, mind reading technology and the data science behind food delivery.</strong></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying</strong></span>\nAuthor: Carl Zimmer\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb0ff078ff&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/health/microbiome-brain-behavior-dementia.html</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that <em>“Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…</em>\n<em>Scientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.</em>\n<em>“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.</em>\n<em>He and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.</em>\n<em>After receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.</em>\n<em>Altering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.</em>\n<em>The scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”</em>\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. <em>“ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported..</em> <em>If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Not Caring - A Unique and Powerful Skill</strong></span>\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b7186e7c8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\n<em>What is unique?</em>\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Wealthy, Successful and Miserable</strong></span>\nAuthor: Charles Duhigg\nSource: The New York Times Magazine (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b97b3a8c6&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/21/magazine/elite-professionals-jobs-happiness.html</a> )\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\n<em>“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”</em>\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? <em>”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”</em>\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\n<em>“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.</em>\n<em>And finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.</em>\n<em>One of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.</em>\n<em>To some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Mind reading technology poses ethical questions</strong></span>\nAuthor: Anjana Ahuja\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=df39cc9242&amp;e=5648501957\">https://app.ft.com/content/8bf0a3d4-2541-11e9-b20d-5376ca5216eb?sectionid=stream/ba3d9036-6155-43e5-b892-eb155267b943</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Scientists have now revealed a technology that can one day speak for us (rather than us having to do the talking). <em>“Researchers at Columbia University have developed a “vocoder” that could eventually decide, purely from brain activity, what a person wants to say it and channel it through a speech synthesiser. Their aim is to give an artificial voice to patients who, through injury or disease, have lost their own…the technology could one day be right, but there is no guarantee that user intent will stay benign. While Brain Computer Interfaces (BCIs) are primarily designed to help the sick, they have the potential to be misused on the healthy…In 2017, scientists in Beijing progressed further down the mindreading road: they were able to tell crudely, what people were looking at, simply by analysing neural signals. All work on the same principle: every human utterance, perception and action has its beginnings in the messy crossfire of brain signals. The goal of BCIs is to detect the signals, decode them using algorithms, and then send relevant commands to a device that acts on the patient’s behalf….”</em>\nLots of people would be able to abuse such technology. “Advertisers might spot the power of mindreading technology ….Employers may wish to more accurately measure compliance and dissent” among employees.\n<em>“One focus of concern is a well-studied…signal called the P300. This ‘aha’ spike, distinctive for each person, is generated when the brain registers something worth paying attention to, such as a familiar face in the crowd…or a PIN number…It forms the basis of “brain fingerprinting”, a contentious technique that purports to identity, for example, when a suspect recognises a weapon…While mind-reading technologies may be cumbersome for now…next generation devices might acquire the capacity for covert detection.”</em></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why living experimentally beats taking bets</strong></span>\nAuthor: Tim Harford\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=939e5b723d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/c60866c6-3039-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\n<em>(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”</em>\n<em>(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”</em>\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. <em>“…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em></span></em></p>\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm</strong></span>\nAuthor: Tom Simonite\nSource: Wired (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a42184eb16&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wired.com/story/how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-warm/</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\n<em> “The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.</em>\n<em>Rajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.</em>\n<em>Muller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.</em>\n<em>Muller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear. </em>\n<em>Uber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em></span></em></p>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n<div></div>', '3rd Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '581-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:45:58', '2019-03-10 12:45:58', '', 581, 'http://marcellus.in/581-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(614, 1, '2019-03-10 12:25:27', '2019-03-10 12:25:27', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:25:27', '2019-03-10 12:25:27', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(616, 1, '2019-03-10 12:34:51', '2019-03-10 12:34:51', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:34:51', '2019-03-10 12:34:51', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(617, 1, '2019-03-10 12:36:07', '2019-03-10 12:36:07', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:36:07', '2019-03-10 12:36:07', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(618, 1, '2019-03-10 12:42:43', '2019-03-10 12:42:43', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:42:43', '2019-03-10 12:42:43', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(619, 1, '2019-03-10 12:46:12', '2019-03-10 12:46:12', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nIn contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:46:12', '2019-03-10 12:46:12', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(622, 1, '2019-03-10 13:25:04', '2019-03-10 13:25:04', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 13:25:04', '2019-03-10 13:25:04', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(620, 1, '2019-03-10 12:50:19', '2019-03-10 12:50:19', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.\r\n\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:50:19', '2019-03-10 12:50:19', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(621, 1, '2019-03-10 12:51:10', '2019-03-10 12:51:10', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on………..</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 12:51:10', '2019-03-10 12:51:10', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(623, 1, '2019-03-17 13:01:17', '2019-03-17 13:01:17', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>This weeks read focuses on Parents who are commercializing their kids lives on Instagram, Increase in lifespan makes it more important for better financial planning and China\'s growing technological prowess.</strong>\n\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em>\n\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\n\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\n\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\n\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\n&nbsp;\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '17th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:01:17', '2019-03-17 13:01:17', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(624, 1, '2019-03-10 13:39:39', '2019-03-10 13:39:39', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This weeks read focuses on Parents who are commercializing their kids lives on Instagram, Increase in lifespan makes it more important for better financial planning and China growing technological prowess.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 13:39:39', '2019-03-10 13:39:39', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(625, 1, '2019-03-10 13:41:21', '2019-03-10 13:41:21', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>This weeks read focuses on Parents who are commercializing their kids lives on Instagram, Increase in lifespan makes it more important for better financial planning and China\'s growing technological prowess.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></span></span></em>\r\n\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\n\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Short read: How Merrill Lynch Is Planning for Its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner GoldenLaura Carstensen\r\n\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span></span></em></p>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\n\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '10th March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-10 13:41:21', '2019-03-10 13:41:21', '', 612, 'http://marcellus.in/612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(665, 1, '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '<em>Published on: 24th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the world of safecrackers, the English vs Mother Tongue debate, how social media is transforming commerce, education and politics, leadership lessons from the Qantas CEO, what makes a fulfilling career and how cleaner environs are killing our immunity.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Meet the safecracker of last resort</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Geoff Manaugh\r\nSource: The Atlantic  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1e5f9d847&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/professional-safecracker-reveals-his-craft/577897/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: <em>“The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”</em>\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: <em>“As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: <em>“An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts...”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read:  \'We spoke English to set ourselves apart\': how I rediscovered my mother tongue</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=77d249ee04&amp;e=5648501957\">Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani</a>\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d8713c4ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/mar/14/we-spoke-english-to-set-ourselves-apart-nigeria-childhood-igbo-language</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.</em>\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. <em>“…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: What the hell is going on?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Perell\r\nSource: Perell (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78d4b57ab4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us would have observed and pondered over the effects of social media on various aspects of the society and economy alike. David Perell puts those observations in a framework that allows the reader to distinctly see these changes, especially focusing on the fields of commerce, education and politics and how the effects are in someways similar in all three fields. Central to the transformation is the shift from information scarcity to information abundance in the hands of the consumer, the student and the voter. Such a shift is obviously disrupting incumbents breaking down entry barriers (brand and distribution are no longer the competitive advantages that they used to be) whilst allowing new comers to take a shot at an industry’s profit pie which hitherto would have been out of reach given the stranglehold of mass media as the main tool of influence and the consequent prohibitive costs. <em>“…legacy advertisers, distribution channels, and the mass media once formed an impenetrable holy trinity but now that trinity rests on wobbly ground, and its parts will decompose into fossils of the Mass Media era….among the top 100 consumer-packaged good (CPG) brands, 90 percent experienced a decline in market share in 2015 and in the past three years, over $17 billion in sales has evaporated from the 10 largest U.S. packaged-food companies.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In education, large universities are being disintermediated to the benefit of both students and teachers to deliver the value proposition in the industry. David reckons ”Harvard and Stanford will be okay, but dark days are ahead for mid-tier universities” But given the unravelling of admission processes, it is not clear why the Ivy league should be any more moated.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Burdened by rising costs and unable to justify tuition prices, mid-tier universities are on the brink of bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen, who coined the term “disruption,\" <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a1e8751e73&amp;e=5648501957\">predicts</a> 50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States will be bankrupt in the next 10 to 15 years. The challenges are most acute for mid-size liberal arts schools such as Concord University in West Virginia. Its freshman enrollment fell 19% in five years. It burned through $12 million in reserves, and now it <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07da3a9f69&amp;e=5648501957\">can’t afford</a> to tear down to empty dormitories. “</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The best section of the article is the one on politics which David uses to conclude why despite the threat of fake news and the ability of politicians or anyone else wanting to use social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to influence public opinion, it is still better than the status quo – in the past, given the information asymmetry we took for granted any information thrown at us by an individual or entity with a perceived sense of authority – such as Walter Cronkite’s (the influential CBS anchor) role in tilting Amercians’ opinion about the Vietnam War or the role of Britannica encyclopedia as the ultimate authority on a subject of our curiosity vs our ability to question Wikipedia’s authenticity. Now with not just a shift towards information abundance but also two-way information flow, the ability to influence public opinion is with the anti-status quo.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In political science, the “Overton Window” represents the range of acceptable opinions in society. Rather than controlling speech itself, people can control speech by determining the limits of acceptable conversation. As Noam Chomsky, the father of modern linguistics said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Before cable, the limits of acceptable speech were enforced by political parties, who, due to their incentives for mass appeal, encouraged political centrism. With the stroke of a pen, small groups set narratives for the masses. Every town has one or two newspapers and three TV stations — all centrist, pro-business, and respectful of authority. Newspapers and television stations monopolized the distribution of information within their local territory. Through their power, they built social cohesion by eliminating diverse opinion and creating a shared intellectual ground for citizens…”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>  Short read: Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dan Pontefract\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=04dfffa09f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpontefract/2019/03/11/qantas-airways-ceo-delivered-a-masterclass-in-leadership/#6239a5ad6d1d</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: <em>“First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”</em>\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…</em>\r\n<em>Joyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”</em>\r\n<em>No word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b311d4051e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/ce31b2de-3a7b-11e9-b856-5404d3811663</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Your Environment Is Cleaner. Your Immune System Has Never Been So Unprepared</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Richtel\r\nSource: NY Times  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5a6216c8b4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/health/immune-system-allergies.html?action=click&amp;module=Discovery&amp;pgtype=Homepage</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When one of our readers sent this article to us, I immediately forwarded it to the missus to score a point in the endless debate over kids’ hygiene. But even the more relaxed amongst us are far more obsessed about cleanliness compared to our previous generations. Our fathers would have recommended applying a bit of soil from the football pitch on the wound from the fall and get on with the game but I am not sure if many from our generation would find it cool enough. Matt Richtel, in this well researched piece shows that with increase in cleanliness and hygiene conditions, humans’ immune system does not interact regularly with the natural world and hence becomes hyper sensitive and prone to allergies.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….”I tell people, when they drop food on the floor, please pick it up and eat it,” said Dr. Meg Lemon, a dermatologist in Denver who treats people with allergies and autoimmune disorders. “Get rid of the antibacterial soap. Immunize! If a new vaccine comes out, run and get it. I immunized the living hell out of my children. And it’s O.K. if they eat dirt.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dr. Lemon’s prescription for a better immune system doesn’t end there. “You should not only pick your nose, you should eat it,” she said. She’s referring, with a facetious touch, to the fact our immune system can become disrupted if it doesn’t have regular interactions with the natural world. “Our immune system needs a job,” Dr. Lemon said. “We evolved over millions of years to have our immune systems under constant assault. Now they don’t have anything to do.” She isn’t alone. Leading physicians and immunologists are reconsidering the antiseptic, at times hysterical, ways in which we interact with our environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..The British Journal of Homeopathy, volume 29, published in 1872, included a startlingly prescient observation: “Hay fever is said to be an aristocratic disease, and there can be no doubt that, if it is not almost wholly confined to the upper classes of society, it is rarely, if ever, met with but among the educated.” Hay fever is a catchall term for seasonal allergies to pollen and other airborne irritants. With this idea that hay fever was an aristocratic disease, British scientists were on to something. More than a century later, in November 1989, another highly influential paper was published on the subject of hay fever. The paper was short, less than two pages, in BMJ, titled “Hay Fever, Hygiene, and Household Size.” The author looked at the prevalence of hay fever among 17,414 children born in March 1958. Of 16 variables the scientist explored, he described as “most striking” an association between the likelihood that a child would get hay fever allergy and the number of his or her siblings.It was an inverse relationship, meaning the more siblings the child had, the less likely it was that he or she would get the allergy. Not just that, but the children least likely to get allergies were ones who had older siblings. The paper hypothesized that “allergic diseases were prevented by infection in early childhood, transmitted by unhygienic contact with older siblings, or acquired prenatally from a mother infected by contact with her older children. “Over the past century declining family size, improvements in household amenities, and higher standards of personal cleanliness have reduced the opportunity for cross infection in young families,” the paper continued. “This may have resulted in more widespread clinical expression of atopic disease, emerging in wealthier people, as seems to have occurred for hay fever.”</em>\r\n<em>“We survived over tens of thousands of years. Eventually, we washed our hands, swept our floors, cooked our food, avoided certain foods altogether. We improved the hygiene of the animals we raised and slaughtered for food. Particularly in the wealthier areas of the world, we purified our water, and developed plumbing and waste treatment plants; we isolated and killed bacteria and other germs. The immune system’s enemies list was attenuated, largely for the good. Now, though, our bodies are proving that they cannot keep up with this change. We have created a mismatch between the immune system — one of the longest surviving and most refined balancing acts in the world — and our environment. Thanks to all the powerful learning we’ve done as a species, we have minimized the regular interaction not just with parasites but even with friendly bacteria and parasites that helped to teach and hone the immune system — that “trained” it. It doesn’t encounter as many bugs when we are babies. This is not just because our homes are cleaner, but also because our families are smaller (fewer older children are bringing home the germs), our foods and water cleaner, our milk sterilized. Some refer to the lack of interaction with all kinds of microbes we used to meet in nature as the “old friends mechanism.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>What does the immune system do when it’s not properly trained? It can overreact. It becomes aggrieved by things like dust mites or pollen. It develops what we called allergies, chronic immune system attacks — inflammation — in a way that is counterproductive, irritating, even dangerous. The percentage of children in the United States with a food allergy rose 50 percent between 1997–1999 and 2009–2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The jump in skin allergies was 69 percent during that period, leaving 12.5 percent of American children with eczema and other irritations. Food and respiratory allergies rose in tandem with income level. More money, which typically correlates with higher education, has meant more risk of allergy. This may reflect differences in who reports such allergies, but it also springs from differences in environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These trends are seen internationally, too. Skin allergies “doubled or tripled in industrialized countries during the past three decades, affecting 15–30 percent of children and 2–10 percent of adults,” according to a paper citing research from the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. By 2011, one in four children in Europe had an allergy, and the figure was on the rise, according to a report by the World Allergy Organization. Reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis, the paper noted that migration studies have shown that children born overseas have lower levels of some types of both allergy and autoimmunity than migrants whose children are born in the United States.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51c49e62a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '24 March 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '24-march-2019', '', '', '2019-03-24 05:31:03', '2019-03-24 05:31:03', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=665', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(648, 1, '2019-03-17 03:46:09', '2019-03-17 03:46:09', '<pre style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1)a <b>filter based approach </b>to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2<b>) in-depth bottom-up research </b>of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.</span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, click <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">here</a>. If you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</span></pre>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 03:46:09', '2019-03-17 03:46:09', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(647, 1, '2019-03-17 03:42:02', '2019-03-17 03:42:02', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1)a <b>filter based approach </b>to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2<b>) in-depth bottom-up research </b>of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, click <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">here</a>. If you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</span></em></p>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 03:42:02', '2019-03-17 03:42:02', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(634, 1, '2019-03-15 09:18:27', '2019-03-15 09:18:27', 'Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research.\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products - old', '', 'draft', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'products-old', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:13:01', '2019-10-07 05:13:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?page_id=634', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(636, 1, '2019-03-15 09:18:27', '2019-03-15 09:18:27', '', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-15 09:18:27', '2019-03-15 09:18:27', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1934, 1, '2019-10-13 07:13:16', '2019-10-13 07:13:16', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\r\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\r\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\r\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\r\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\r\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here:  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'real-economy-check-jammed-liquidity-to-overwhelming-regulations-hurting-small-drugmakers-says-orbit-lifesciences', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:42:51', '2019-11-04 06:42:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1934', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(681, 1, '2019-04-02 16:39:32', '2019-04-02 16:39:32', '', 'Marcellus_Consistent Compounders_Apr 2019', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_consistent-compounders_apr-2019', '', '', '2019-04-02 16:40:52', '2019-04-02 16:40:52', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(726, 1, '2019-04-17 10:18:05', '2019-04-17 10:18:05', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 17 April, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The clients who ask us the most probing questions tend to have well organised work lives and a fierce focus on doing what is most useful and most enjoyable for them. Everything else is edited out of their lives. Such clients are not just successful capital allocators, they are also great time allocators. Each of those skills feeds into the other to create a virtuous cycle.</strong><strong>\r\n</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Most of what exists in the universe – our actions, and all other forces, resources, ideas – has little value and yields little result; on the other hand, a few things work fantastically well and have tremendous impact.” </em>― <strong>Richard Koch in </strong>‘The 80/20 Individual: How to Build on the 20% of What You do Best’ (2003)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Clarity of thought….</strong>\r\nOver the past six months as we have crisscrossed India bolstering Marcellus’ assets under management, we have met over 500 businesspeople. The businesses they run range from being huge listed companies to small trading/wholesaling operations. However, regardless of how wealthy our clients are and regardless of how well educated they are, the tone &amp; tenor of our meetings across India are determined by one variable and one variable only – the clarity of thought that the client is able to bring to bear in the meeting.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since in every meeting we pitch the same product – Marcellus’ Portfolio Management Services – we are able to watch the client’s mind click through the gears as she absorbs our pitch, processes the information, asks questions and reaches a conclusion regarding the utility of our services. The majority of the people we pitch to will ask questions about elections, climate change, water scarcity, China/trade war, interest rates, QE/global liquidity, P/E multiples, digitisation/Artificial Intelligence/automation, etc. These clients are well informed and we can see that their head is packed with information.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, only around one in three clients are able to ask the three questions which get to the heart of the matter, namely:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(a) How can you show me that your interests are aligned with mine?</strong> Specifically, tell me how much of your own networth in invested in Marcellus’ funds? And are you willing to paid entirely on a profit share basis rather than charging fixed fees?</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(b) Explain to me in layman’s jargon how you will invest my money?</strong> To be more specific, how do you ensure that my money does not get invested in crony capitalist’s companies or in companies run by unethical management teams?</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(c) What will you do to minimise the risk</strong> associated with investing my corpus in the Indian stockmarket? In specific, if I need my money back at very short notice, will you be able to accommodate me? If I want to avoid the high brokerage, custody &amp; fund accounting costs and the capital gains taxes typically associated with PMS investments in India, how can you help me?</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is not so much that this minority of our clients understands what we do more or less than the rest of our clients. It is more that they are able to zero in on what really matters in the hour that is allocated to these meetings. The enviable ability of a minority of people to understand a relatively complex matter quickly and ask penetrating questions is something we too would like to possess. So why is it that some people have greater clarity of thought than others?</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>….is fundamentally linked to focusing on what matters in life</strong>\r\nI used to think that clarity of thought is a genetic attribute – either god gave it to you or she didn’t. However, as we get to know our clients better, we have realised that like any other powerful skill, clarity of thought can be cultivated. Furthermore, businesspeople who are able to acquire this skill are also able to run their businesses far more effectively than those who don’t have this skill.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how does one acquire clarity of thought? [I too am learning inspite of all pretensions to the contrary. Hence please read this as ‘work in progress’.] The first step seems to be the realisation that most of the information that we get via email, social media and mainstream media and most of what surrounds us is actually irrelevant. In an outstanding book on this subject, <em>“Essentialism: the Disciplined Pursuit of Less”</em>, Greg McKeown says that <em>‘The overwhelming reality is: we live in a world where almost everything is worthless and a few very few things are exceptionally valuable.’</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second is step seems to be around finding time &amp; space to think and to reflect. To carve out time to think, you need to have a clear appreciation of what matters to you i.e. what is absolutely essential to your working day (and, by implication, what are the peripheral activities which you should minimise). We have seen that clients who are able to carve out a solid hour to spend with us (when they are not fiddling with their phones) are far more able to focus on the three core questions listed above.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The third step entails using the space &amp; time freed up to play i.e. do work which you enjoy, which gets your creative juices going, work where the process of working/thinking is as important as the final outcome. Psychologists have found that play expands our mind in three different ways:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1) Play broadens our mind and helps us see possibilities that otherwise wouldn’t exist. For example, the promoter of a listed company who gave us money to manage read our bestselling book ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (<a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0670089257\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0670089257</a>) on holiday and realized that the same principles could also help his business. Upon his request we conducted a strategy workshop for his twenty most senior executives. We in turn learnt from this management team how tricky it is to build durable entry barriers in the consumer durables sector.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2) Play is an antidote to stress. As is well known, stress can shut down the creative, inquisitive part of our brain. Writing these blogs, for instance, is for us as much about de-stressing and learning interesting things as it is about promoting our dogma.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3) Third, and perhaps most importantly, <em>“as Edward M.Hallowell, as psychiatrist who specializes in brain science, explains, play has a positive effect on the executive function of the brain…Play stimulates the parts of the brain involved in both careful logical reasoning and carefree, unbound exploration. Given that, it should hardly be surprising that key breakthroughs in thinking have taken place in times of play.” </em>(Source: ‘Essentialism: the Disciplined Pursuit of Less’, Greg McKeown (2014)) </span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The final step in this sequential journey towards building clarity of thought is derisking or buffering oneself from the vicissitudes of life. You can only do this if you have sufficient time &amp; space to assess risks and understand steps that can be taken to reduce risk. People who are super busy and/or stressed seldom have the mindspace available to think through derisking. The clients whose questions are the most probing are the clients who have prepared in advance of our meeting. Why? Because they know that if they assess us properly during our hour with them, they are de-risking the management of their wealth in a far more effective way than worrying either about the outcome of India\'s elections or how Donald Trump will stymie Indian exports to America.</span></em></p>\r\n<em>If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a></em>\r\n\r\n<em><a href=\"https://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Most Important Questions to Ask Your Fund Manager', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-most-important-questions-to-ask-your-fund-manager', '', '', '2019-11-05 09:58:04', '2019-11-05 09:58:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=726', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(682, 1, '2019-04-29 18:35:31', '2019-04-29 18:35:31', 'Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research.\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:35:31', '2019-04-29 18:35:31', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(649, 1, '2019-03-17 04:01:47', '2019-03-17 04:01:47', 'Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n\r\n<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, click <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</span></pre>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 04:01:47', '2019-03-17 04:01:47', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(641, 1, '2019-03-15 09:26:16', '2019-03-15 09:26:16', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1)a <b>filter based approach </b>to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2<b>) in-depth bottom-up research </b>of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, click <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019.pdf\">here</a>. If you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-15 09:26:16', '2019-03-15 09:26:16', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(789, 1, '2019-05-05 16:45:50', '2019-05-05 16:45:50', 'For Grievence redressal please contact', 'Contact Us', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '111-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 16:45:50', '2019-05-05 16:45:50', '', 111, 'http://marcellus.in/111-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(644, 1, '2019-03-15 16:22:54', '2019-03-15 16:22:54', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 15 March, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The majority of us spend our lives seeking the approval of others. A few people however have the courage to do things which they know will invite criticism. This rare characteristic - which is often the hallmark of successful investors – seems to be dependent on how we structure our relationships.  </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Freedom is being disliked by other people. It is proof that you are exercising your freedom and living in freedom, and a sign that you are living in accordance with your own principles. Conducting yourself in such a way as not be disliked by anyone is an extremely unfree way of living.”</em> – <strong>Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga in ‘The Courage to be Disliked” </strong>(2013)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The courage to invite criticism</strong>\r\nIn a young country like India, which remains for the most part a caste-bound hierarchical society, most people attach great value to fitting in. So, you are not supposed to say or do things which make you stand out from the crowd. And you are certainly not supposed to do things which invite criticism or ridicule. Thus it is hard to imagine an Indian fund manager doing what Warren Buffett did on 25<sup>th </sup>February - four days after Kraft Heinz took a US$15billion writedown and slashed its dividend, Buffett said on CNBC, <em>“I was wrong in a couple of ways on Kraft Heinz…We overpaid for Kraft.”</em> This admission of failure triggered a wave of criticism directed at Buffett (including this fine piece from John Gapper of the FT: <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-courage-to-be-disliked/\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-courage-to-be-disliked/</a>\r\n).</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What we find more interesting than Kraft Heinz’s plight is Buffett’s courage in owning up to an error of judgement. He could have easily said “Look, I manage such a massive cash pile and do so many deals that an error here or there is not a big deal.” However, he did not do that. He did not hide behind his cashpile. In his perceptive 28<sup>th</sup> February 2019 piece, Morgan Housel delved deeper into this facet of Buffett’s personality:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said.</em>\r\n<em>“You know why I think you’re the richest man in the world?” he told Buffett. “I think you’re getting paid back for being willing to appear foolish on a scale that probably that no one in history has ever been willing to appear before. Billions of people watching you, year after year goes by, yet you don’t mind appearing foolish…”” [Source: <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>]  </em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why the courage to be disliked is an invaluable trait?</strong>\r\nAs Housel puts it, each year the pool of people chasing returns in the market is becoming larger, brighter and better informed. So IQ and effort per se is not going to differentiate any one investor from the millions of other aspirants. The differentiation, and hence the outperformance comes from something else. In Housel’s words:\r\n<em>“One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is…not minding what happens…You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry.</em>\r\n<em>There are two drivers of enduring investment performance:</em></span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Doing something others don’t.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em></span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber…</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio…</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind…</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events...”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">[To read more about this line of thought, you might want to read our blog on Cassius Marcellus Clay aka Muhammad Ali: <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill/</a>\r\n]</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why do so few people have the courage to be disliked?</strong>\r\nSo, if being disliked can help us make money, why do so few fund managers have the courage to be disliked? Why is consensus/benchmark hugging the norm? To understand this we turn to a remarkable book by two Japanese authors – Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga. Their book ‘The Courage to be Disliked’ (2013) is a philosophical discourse based on the work of Austrian psychologist, Alfred Adler. Everybody who makes decisions under pressure and with imperfect information should read this remarkable book which has sold over three million copies.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The challenge starts early on in life as we start living life to fulfill other people’s expectations. Initially, we seek to fulfill our parents’ expectations, then our friends’. Soon we are seeking the approval of our social set and our colleagues. By the time we are grown-up professionals, our happiness hinges around seeking the approval of others. Obviously, that makes it very hard to do something along the lines of Buffett’s Kraft-Heinz <em>mea culpa</em>.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The book calls one-way relationships, where our happiness depends on the approval of others (eg. our parents at home, our teachers in school or our bosses at work) “vertical relationships”. These are distinct from two-way relationships which are relationships between equals. The book calls these “horizontal relationships”. People whose lives are characterised by more horizontal relationships than vertical relationships are more likely to have the courage to be disliked. Why? Because in a vertical relationship your happiness hinges on the happiness of the person you are subservient to. As a result, you live for praise/approval from her. That in turn makes it very difficult for you to do anything which could invite disapproval or criticism from her. Those who see the world as largely consisting of relationships between equals are less likely to make the happiness of others a key driver of their decisions.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the authors put it: <em>“It is because you are living in vertical relationships that you want to be praised…If you are building even one vertical relationship with someone, before you even notice what is happening, you will be treating all your interpersonal relationships as vertical….The feeling of inferiority arises within vertical relationships. If you can build horizontal relationships that are “equal but not the same” for all people, there will no longer be any room for inferiority complexes to emerge.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The book also delves into another driver of happiness/self-worth (and hence the courage to be disliked): our sense of how much we are contributing to the world around us, <em>“If you really have a feeling of contribution, you will no longer have any need for recognition from others…People who have so much money that they could never use it all work so that they are able to contribute to others…No matter what moments you are living, or if there are people who dislike you, as long as you do not lose sight of the guiding star of “I contribute to others”, you will not lose your way, and you can do whatever you like.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Courage to be Disliked', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-courage-to-be-disliked', '', '', '2019-11-21 11:49:47', '2019-11-21 11:49:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=644', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(1993, 1, '2019-10-23 12:08:57', '2019-10-23 12:08:57', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 8 Feb, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the same problems which ravaged India’s banking system now spread into its money &amp; bond markets, we highlight the need for investors to strengthen their forensic accounting firepower. With over 60 years of experience of analysing the accounts of India’s leading companies, Marcellus’ research team (now stuffed with CAs and CFAs) is of the view that over 70% of India’s listed entities publish accounts which don’t make sense.         </span></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.” </span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">–<strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\"> Albert Einstein</span></strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“For all practical purposes, board members are nominated by the managers, with limited or no input from the external shareholders. This tilts the balance of power in favour of the insiders or managers, who could choose to ignore the shareholders. However, there are other participants in the governance system, who could play an important role in correcting this imbalance. They are the information intermediaries, called ‘gatekeepers’, who ensure that only the right information about the corporation reaches the gates of the external investors, particularly shareholders. </span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">The gatekeepers in the financial market include credit rating agencies that evaluate a company’s creditworthiness, external auditors who provide independent assurance that the company’s financial condition is portrayed fairly, and securities analysts who assess its business prospects…</span></em>\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">It is these gatekeepers who failed in the case of Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp; FS)…During the financial year 2017-18, its operating profit rose to Rs 7,267.3 crore. However, debt increased at a much faster pace to Rs 91,091.3 crore. As a result, interest outgo touched Rs 7,922.8 crore during 2017-18. By 2018, the company was not even making enough profit to take care of its interest expense. Hence the default happened. </span></em>\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">While the board’s failure is apparent, the gatekeepers whose vigilance could have averted the crisis also failed in the case of IL&amp;FS.” <b>– Economic Times, 1<sup>st</sup> November 2018</b> (Source: <a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ilfs-mess-how-gatekeeper-rating-agencies-auditors-analysts-let-you-down/articleshow/66457372.cms\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ilfs-mess-how-gatekeeper-rating-agencies-auditors-analysts-let-you-down/articleshow/66457372.cms</a>\n) </span></em></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The stress in the banking system has spilled over</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nThrough 2013-17 as we watched the stress in the banking system build-up (with stressed assets ultimately rising beyond 15% of total banking system assets implying that most of the banks were bust in all but name), many of us kept asking ourselves “how long before this problem spills over into the rest of the financial system?”</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The beauty of a complex financial system is that it often refuses to follow the simple models that we build in our heads. So, rather than the problems of the banking system spilling over to the rest of the financial system, we ended up with a broad-based financial boom in 2017.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As liquidity flooded into the financial system post-demonetisation, not only did the stockmarket soar (the Nifty rose by 29% that year) but the three month Commercial Paper (CP) rate move towards 6% in July 2017 (from as high as 12% in September 2013).</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 2017 boom in financial markets made the issues in the banking system look like an isolated problem. More importantly, the healthy run that stock and bond markets enjoyed between 2014-2017 gave two successive RBI Governors, Raghu Rajan and Urjit Patel, the political space to squeeze errant promoters who had defaulted on their bank loans. To their credit, both Governors gradually squeezed the flow of credit from Public Sector Banks (PSBs) to promoters who were proven experts in gaming the banking system. In 2017 these promoters ran to the money market to raise funds – using CPs and Non-convertible debentures (NCDs) these promoters borrowed from India’s mutual fund industry which is ill-equipped to deal with premier league schemers.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then, over the last 18 months, as liquidity conditions normalised, the cost of issuing CPs and NCDs steadily rose – the three month CP rate is now approaching 8% in India. As a result, the final source of liquidity for many influential promoters was drying out. These people then lobbied New Delhi that the restrictions that the RBI had imposed on PSBs should be removed in the broader national interest of stimulating economic growth. We don\'t need to elaborate what happened next at the RBI.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, if we look beyond the drama at the RBI, what is more alarming is the ongoing challenge facing India’s money &amp; bond markets. Basically, the same set of factors that laid to waste much of the banking system is now rippling through our CP and NCD markets. In these markets the providers of credit are mutual funds and corporate Treasuries. Our extensive interactions with many of these market participants over the last three years has left us convinced that they are even less capable than our banks of dealing with India’s premier league schemers.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why did this happen…</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nAt one level it is not hard to see what is happening in India. The same rickety market infrastructure of conflicted auditors and equally conflicted credit rating agencies which did not work in America 10-20 years ago is letting India down. No sane person – in India or elsewhere - can expect an auditor or a credit rating agency to collect its fees from the company but work in the interests of shareholders/bondholders.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">What exacerbates the problem in India is the slowness of the legal system to deliver justice to lenders or shareholders who are shortchanged by the promoters/managements. So until we create a system in which the market does not have to depend on the numbers/ratings produced by conflicted parties, we will continue to see Indian lenders being taken the cleaners regardless of how good the NCLT process is. In fact the shorter the tenor of the debt instrument, the lower the relevance of the NCLT process. It is worth noting that America’s famed bankruptcy process could not help bond investors from the being cleaned out in the wake of Bear Stearns and Lehman going bust.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">…and what can we do about it</span></strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\nAs investors in India grapple with the issues rippling through the money market and the bond market, it is clear that the auditing and rating process needs an overhaul. Issuers should pay for their audits and their ratings but they should not be able to have any influence over their auditor or credit rater. Whilst the reflex reaction of regulators will be to say “we will appoint the auditor/rater”, a better way to do it would be to allocate auditors and raters using an online lottery system!</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Leaving aside structural fixes and until such time when the legal system dispenses justice more swiftly, investors in India’s financial markets need to double up on their forensic accounting skills and steer clear of companies whose accounts don’t make sense. At Marcellus, every single analyst and fund manager has a Indian Chartered Accountancy and/or a Chartered Financial Analyst (AIMR, USA) qualification. Between us we have over six decades of experience of studying the accounts of most of India’s leading companies and our view is that 70% of listed entities in India have accounts which do not make sense. It is relatively easy for us to steer clear of these firms given the amount of diligence we bring to bear on them. However, if the entire financial system begins to steer clear of these firms, India’s capex and job creation machinery will freeze. It is in this context that we reiterate that who wins the forthcoming elections has little relevance either for the financial markets or for the economy.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</span></strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</span></em></p>\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: The Virus Spreads Beyond the Banks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '554-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 12:08:57', '2019-10-23 12:08:57', '', 554, 'http://marcellus.in/554-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(646, 1, '2019-03-17 03:38:20', '2019-03-17 03:38:20', '', 'Marcellus_Consistent Compounders_Mar 2019', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_consistent-compounders_mar-2019-2', '', '', '2019-03-17 03:41:14', '2019-03-17 03:41:14', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(775, 1, '2019-04-29 18:35:49', '2019-04-29 18:35:49', 'Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research.\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:35:49', '2019-04-29 18:35:49', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(650, 1, '2019-03-17 04:07:38', '2019-03-17 04:07:38', '[caption id=\"attachment_83\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"1400\"]<img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/jobs-banner-bg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"143\" class=\"size-full wp-image-83\" /> \r\n\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>\r\nPortfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n\r\n<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, click <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">here</a>. \r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</span></pre>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 04:07:38', '2019-03-17 04:07:38', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(654, 1, '2019-03-17 13:00:06', '2019-03-17 13:00:06', '<em>Published on: 10th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       </em><strong>Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong><strong>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:00:06', '2019-03-17 13:00:06', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(655, 1, '2019-03-17 13:11:51', '2019-03-17 13:11:51', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       </em><strong>Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong><strong>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:11:51', '2019-03-17 13:11:51', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(657, 1, '2019-03-17 13:37:46', '2019-03-17 13:37:46', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       </em><strong>Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:37:46', '2019-03-17 13:37:46', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(656, 1, '2019-03-17 13:37:04', '2019-03-17 13:37:04', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       </em><strong>Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong><strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:37:04', '2019-03-17 13:37:04', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(658, 1, '2019-03-17 13:38:33', '2019-03-17 13:38:33', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       <strong>Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:38:33', '2019-03-17 13:38:33', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(659, 1, '2019-03-17 13:39:49', '2019-03-17 13:39:49', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       <strong>Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       <strong>Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:39:49', '2019-03-17 13:39:49', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(660, 1, '2019-03-17 13:40:48', '2019-03-17 13:40:48', '<em>Published on: 17th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on how parents make their kids models for brands on social media, the social logic of college admissions in the US, the world of undersea cables, the impact of rising life expectancy on wealth managers, why 737 Max should not be feared and how China is gaining the upper hand over Germany.</strong>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram</strong></strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Allie Volpe\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b88a354e0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/02/inside-lives-child-instagram-influencers/583675/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia\'s Deakin University, told me.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””</em>\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn\'t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2.       </strong><strong>Long read: Getting In - The social logic of Ivy League admissions</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Gladwell\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19f7d96f9d&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/10/10/getting-in</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3.       Long read: People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Adam Satariano\r\nSource: NY Times\r\n(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9642046739&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/03/10/technology/internet-cables-oceans.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4.       Short read:  How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Susan Wilner Golden, Laura Carstensen\r\nSource: Harvard Business Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dfd690f44c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””</em>\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?...</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….</em>\r\n<em>Financial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5.       Short read: Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: John Gapper\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=483206158f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/4a496d0e-44bc-11e9-a965-23d669740bfb</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6.       Short read: China gains the upper hand over Germany</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Wolfgang Munchau\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c2ef5b9144&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2UoEB4K</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that <em>“Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”</em>\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: <em>“But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', '17 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-17 13:40:48', '2019-03-17 13:40:48', '', 653, 'http://marcellus.in/653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(661, 1, '2019-03-22 14:20:22', '2019-03-22 14:20:22', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 22 March, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Around the world, making money from stocks does involve a significant element of market timing. However, for a small minority of stocks in India, the classical value investing paradigm does not readily work. These companies are best understood using our ‘Consistent Compounders\' paradigm.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Given the way price multiples have expanded for high-quality companies over the last decade, should investors be concerned about the sustainability of stock returns from such companies if they buy at current levels? Our answer is a resounding NO. As we show in Appendix 5 of this book, whether we look at bull market phases of the Indian stock market or bear market phases, all the evidence points in one direction – starting-period valuations have very little impact on long-medium run investment returns in India. The lack of correlation between starting-period valuations and long-term holding period returns seems to be specific to India.”</em> – <strong>Rakshit Ranjan, Pranab Uniyal &amp; Saurabh Mukherjea in ‘Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth’</strong>, 2018, Penguin Random House</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Value investing works</strong>\r\n80 years ago Benjamin Graham and David Dodd introduced to the investing world the then revolutionary and interlinked concepts of ‘value investing’ and ‘margin of safety’ in their book ‘Security Analysis’. In an era ravaged by the Great Depression, the two men pointed out that the way to make money in the stockmarket with a high degree of certainty is to buy companies with low P/B, low P/E multiples and low debt. Such investments meant that your purchase price would be significantly below the fair value of the stock thus providing a ‘margin of safety’ for the investor.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the years since the publication of Security Analysis, numerous academics have shown that value investing does generate superior results in the US market and elsewhere. Even more famously, Warren Buffett in a celebrated 1984 speech at Columbia University (<a href=\"https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors</a>) reaffirmed the superiority of value investing to other investing approaches: <em>“The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market. Essentially, they exploit those discrepancies without the efficient market theorist’s concern as to whether the stocks are bought on Monday or Thursday, or whether it is January or July, etc. Incidentally, when businessmen buy businesses, which is just what our Graham &amp; Dodd investors are doing through the medium of marketable stocks…Our Graham &amp; Dodd investors, needless to say, do not discuss beta, the capital asset pricing model, or covariance in returns among securities. These are not subjects of any interest to them….The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In India too one could argue that for the majority of stocks, value investing (i.e. buying companies when they are inexpensive on P/E) makes sense. In fact, one can divide the Indian stockmarket into broadly three sets of companies:\r\n<strong>Type A</strong> stocks comprise around 80-90% of the Indian market. Such companies find it difficult to grow earnings over extended periods of time as they have no sustainable competitive advantages and hence no ability to generate a Return on Capital (ROC) in excess of the Cost of Capital (COC). The gap between ROC and COC is Free Cash Flow which in turn in the means by which a company finances its growth. Lacking sustainable FCF such companies struggle to invest in growing their businesses. Examples of such companies are India’s telcos and its airlines – companies with never ending volume growth but no sustainable competitive advantages and hence no earnings growth.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you assume that you make returns from investing in any company from two sources – either the P/E expands or the earnings expand - with Type A stocks, your only hope of making money is that the P/E expands (since the earnings are unlikely to expand). If you find a fund manager who can double the Type A company’s P/E over a decade, your returns will compound at 7% CAGR. If the fund manager you have found has mistimed his investment i.e. he entered when the P/E was high (he wasn’t a value investor) and exited when the P/E had halved, your return will be -7% CAGR.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Type B</strong> stocks account for a further 5-10% of the Indian market and this segment includes good franchises like Maruti or HUL which have meaningful competitive advantages. As a result, in most years, these companies will have a ROC in excess of COC. The reinvestment of the free cash flow will allow these companies to grow the business at around 12% i.e. the same rate as nominal GDP growth on a cross-cycle basis.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here too value investing works. If you can find a fund manager who enters Maruti at 13x P/E and exits a decade later at 26x P/E, the stock would give you returns of around 19% [12% from earnings growth and 7% from P/E doubling]. If, on the other hand, your fund manager has mistimed your investment i.e. he entered when the P/E was high (he wasn’t a value investor) and exited when the P/E had halved, your return will be 5% CAGR [12% minus 7%]. With Type B stocks, a committed value investor like Warren Buffett can generate high teens returns if he times his entry point well. In fact, this is exactly what Buffett’s legend is built around.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you and I were living in America (or in any other large economy barring India), Type A &amp; B stocks would form our entire investment universe. However, in the Indian stock-market there exists a third subset of stocks – <strong>Type C</strong>.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The Indian stockmarket has a unique subset of companies</strong>\r\nAs stated by our fund manager, Rakshit Ranjan, in our February 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\">http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf</a>), “<em>India is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity… On the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We can call these Indian companies – whose ROCs are a million miles above their COC for decades on an end – <strong>Type C</strong>. The vast free cash flows that these firms generate decade after decade allow them to not only pay generous dividends (dividend yields for such firms tend to be 2-3%) but also reinvest in growing the business. Earnings growth for such firms tends to be around 25% per annum.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With a Type C firm, if our fund manager is able to get the timing of his entry and exit right, the results are spectacular: 25% earnings growth + 7% from doubling of P/E + 2% from dividend yield = 34% per annum return. However, since many of these firms are trading at optically high P/Es, let’s assume that their P/Es halve over the next decade. Even then these the Type C firms produce a return of 20% [25% earnings growth – 7% for P/E halving + 2% dividend yield]. Interestingly, even with P/Es halving over ten years, Type C firms produce returns similar to what Type B firms do with P/E doubling [20% vs 19%].</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nFor 99% of Indian stocks, value investing provides the only route to decent returns (in the mid-high teens). The challenge that India’s Type C firms pose to Graham &amp; Dodd’s value investment paradigm can be understood in the context of the investment framework that these legends had laid out in ‘Security Analysis’.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The value of a firm is nothing more than its future cashflows (discounted appropriately). These future cashflows are nothing more than the gap between ROC and COC. If the gap between ROC and COC does not close (say, because the Indian economy is not as competitive as the US economy or the Chinese economy) – as happens for the Type C companies in India – the value of the firm is very high. Such firms can therefore command very high P/E multiples. Our Consistent Compounders Portfolio consists of such companies (click here for more information: <a href=\"/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf</a>). To our regret, less than 1% of the stocks in the Indian market fall in this category! For the remainder of the investment universe in India – as in America – the rules of Graham &amp; Doddsville can be successfully applied. The table below summarises the taxonomy of Types A, B &amp; C that we have outlined above.</span></em></p>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-663\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/22blog.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"251\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Value Investing - The Indian Challenge', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-value-investing-the-indian-challenge', '', '', '2019-11-14 06:07:14', '2019-11-14 06:07:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=661', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(680, 1, '2019-03-29 18:11:58', '2019-03-29 18:11:58', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 29 March, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The triangle of relationships – between politics/state on the first vertex, god/religion/ethics on the second vertex and commerce/investing/property rights on the third vertex – is a delicate interplay. The fact that over the last five decades, India’s GDP growth has been higher in every decade than in the one before, suggests that India has got the tensions between the three vertices broadly under control.</strong><strong>\r\n</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…if God is all-powerful, who needs Caesars? Without Caesars, Augustine replies, there’d be no Christians, and that can’t be God’s will. To be a Christian is itself to choose, freely, to follow Christ; but that choice would have left little behind if all Christians had been fed to the lions. Caesars rarely did that, however: the Roman empire over the three centuries from Jesus’ death to Constantine’s was, despite repressive intervals, a surprisingly hospitable place for the new religion [Christianity].”</em> – <strong>John Lewis Gaddis in ‘On Grand Strategy’</strong>, 2018 [square brackets are ours; Augustine refers to Saint Augustine (354–430AD), an early Christian theologian whose writings influenced the development of Western Christianity &amp; philosophy.]</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Football in Kolkata</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">On a recent trip to Kolkata, I went for a run along the Rabindra Sarobor (called “the Lake” by the locals). Every morning, and especially on Saturday mornings, dozens of cricket and football matches take place next to the Lake. At the end of my run, I stopped to see a competitive football match between two teams of teenage girls. As is the norm the world over, most of the spectators were parents. In this case many of the parents were burkha clad ladies. After the final whistle the two teams lined up to sing the national anthem and it felt nice listening to Rabi Thakur’s anthem sung with much enthusiasm in Rabindra Sarobor. Just as interesting was what followed.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the players dispersed and the burkha clad mothers walked home with their teenage daughters in football gear, the daughters - many of who had their football boots strung around their necks – received the standard dose of parental chastisement. One mother criticised her daughter in Hindi for not passing the ball enough. I heard another daughter being told in Bengali “if you don’t go for your early morning runs, you will be out of puff, like you were today, half way through the match.” Walking past these tiger mums reminded me of the fascinating relationship between politics, religion and investing.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The triangle which under girds our lives</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Numerous political scientists and philosophers the world over have written on the interplay between the state/politics and the church/organised religion. Broadly speaking, the conventional demarcation between these two pillars of civilised life is as follows:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Religion is supposed to provide us an ethical code which underpins life – both business &amp; personal – in way that the government/state/politics alone cannot. For example, if you and I are running competing companies in the same market, should I poach your customers away if you fall ill for a couple of months? The law cannot provide an answer to that question. Only ethics &amp; religion can and in that regard religion/ethics can be said to form the foundation of civilised life.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Where law or government/politics comes in is without the overarching protection of the state, it is hard for religion or commerce to flourish. Ideally, a well-functioning state provides shelter to the practitioners of various religions to practice their faith provided their faith does not encroach upon the remit of the state/law.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Unfortunately, this is exactly where there is a tension between the role of the state and that of religion. In particular, a state which is too weak might not be able to protect the practitioners of a specific faith from the attacks of rival faiths. On the other hand, a state which is overbearing might dictate to its citizens what religion/faith they should practice. This latter approach is the one that countries dominated by the Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Zionism and Islam) have taken for the most part. To this day, you have to be an Anglican Christian to the be Prime Minister of Britain. To this day, Britons who are not Anglicans have to listen to the hectoring of politicians who worry about the national fabric being ruined by Catholics, Muslims, Hindus, etc.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Interestingly, this fusing (sometimes explicit but usually implicit) between the role of the state and that of religion seems to be something which has hitherto been restricted to countries dominated by Abrahamic religions. For example, neither in Japan nor in China nor India does the head of the state have to belong to a particular religion. In fact, in none of the Asian countries dominated by non-Abrahamic religions has a formal attempt been made to link religion with the state (although in countries like Sri Lanka and Thailand several attempts have been made to make Buddhism the official religion and thus a prerequisite for offices of power).</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The tension that characterises the interplay between the role of the state/polity and the role of religion also extends to commerce and investing. Whether I am investing in a stock or in my daughter’s education or in a piece of real estate in India, I am placing my faith in the Indian state and its politicians that they will protect my investment (rather than usurping my investment and violating my rights in the name of the greater good) regardless of what religion I practice. As Machiavelli said in ‘The Discourses’: <em>“It is only in republics that the common good is looked to properly in that all that promotes it is carried out; and however much this or that private person may be the loser on this account, there are <u>so many who benefit thereby that the common good can be realized in spite of those few who suffer in consequence</u>.” [Underlining is ours]</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here the countries with Abrahamic faiths have a mixed track record. In much of the Middle East you have to be an Arab to have secure property rights. In Britain, where the head of the Church of England is also the head of the state, or in the United States (where the President is formally not supposed to be linked to a specific religion but usually shows himself to be a God-fearing Christian), the state makes a great show of protecting property rights. The fact that other countries take this posturing with a pinch of salt is evident from the need to create the World Trade Organisation in 1995. The WTO sits above national governments and supervises global trade. It is not beholden to any country or to any religion.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This triangle of relationships – between politics/state on the first vertex, god/religion/ethics on the second vertex and commerce/investing/property rights on the third vertex – is a delicate interplay in India and elsewhere. The fact that over the last five decades, India’s GDP growth has been higher in every decade than in the one before, suggests that India has got the tensions between the three vertices of this triangle broadly under control. That by itself is a feat worth celebrating. In fact, India is the only large economy in the world which for five consecutive decades has demonstrated a rising trend in economic growth. The amount of progress we make in the next fifty years will depend more on sustaining this delicate balance (between the three vertices which define a civilised society) rather than on further liberalising our economy.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Delicate Dance Between Politics, Religion & Investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-delicate-dance-between-politics-religion-investing', '', '', '2019-11-25 04:50:46', '2019-11-25 04:50:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=680', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1995, 1, '2019-10-23 12:17:11', '2019-10-23 12:17:11', '<em>Published on: 7 Nov, 2018</em>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/indian-market.jpg\" alt=\"Indian market\" />\n\n<strong>No other large stockmarket is as overwhelmingly macro driven as India’s. Arguably, this is because of the high cost of factors of production and the influence of the Indian state in every aspect of business life. To make money in India, investors need to understand the macro as much as company- specific fundamentals.</strong>\n\n<strong><em>“In the late 1990s Rupert Murdoch visited India to explore launching satellite and cable joint-venture operations…After meeting all the government ministers in New Delhi, he flew to Mumbai…to meet Dhirubhai Ambani…Ambani asked Murdoch who he had met in Delhi. Murdoch said that he had met the PM, the Finance Minister and others. ‘Ah, you’ve met all the right people, said Ambani, ‘but if you want to get anywhere in India you must meet all the wrong people.’ By this he meant the corrupt politicians….”</em> – Edward Luce in ‘In spite of the Gods: the Strange Rise of Modern India’ (2006)</strong>\n\n<strong>Our rigorous data crunch singles out India</strong>\nUsing quarterly data for the last 18 years, we used regression analysis to understand the impact of three macro variable (exchange rates (YoY change), GDP growth and interest rates) on stock prices. Our crunch shows that 60% of the variability in stock prices in India is driven by these macro factors. In contrast, in the two biggest stockmarkets in the world – USA and Japan – the corresponding figures are 34% and 35% respectively, implying that in these markets company-specific factors are responsible for two-thirds of shareholder returns.\n\nIn the largest Emerging Market, China, macro factors explain only 25% of the variability in share prices. The only Emerging Market which is comparable to India is Brazil where 53% of the variability in share prices is driven by macro factors. But this is to be expected for Brazil is primarily a commodity dependent economy.\n\n<strong>So why does the Indian stockmarket stand out in its dependence on macro?</strong>\n\nWe can think of three good reasons why stock prices in India are primarily dependant on macro factors:\n<ul>\n 	<li>India is still fundamentally a feudal society with our politicians being the kings. As a result, most sectors are still heavily regulated by the Centre, the State and by local government eg. to start a hotel in Mumbai one needs almost 60 clearances from various layers of Government. A case study currently playing out in front of us which demonstrates nicely why macro dominates in India is the NBFC crisis – when the NBFCs realised that they will struggle to refinance their Commercial Papers they, as a group, ran straight to New Delhi which responded with a majestic show of power. The UPA Government too was a masterly exponent of political patronage – read this story for an example:<a href=\"https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20120123-vedanta-anil-agarwal-p-chidambaram-flip-flop-sesa-goa-756976-2012-01-14\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/nation/story/20120123-vedanta-anil-agarwal-p-chidambaram-flip-flop-sesa-goa-756976-2012-01-14</a>\n .</li>\n 	<li>Factors of production are much more expensive in India compared to other large economies. For almost the entire period under consideration (2001-18), the cost of borrowing for SMEs in India has been well in excess of 11%. In contrast, in economies like China, Japan and USA, SMEs borrow at rates well below 5%. Minimum wages in India are 3x that in Bangladesh (and this inspite of the fact that Bangladesh has healthier, more literate workers). Click here for an interesting post on this subject by an Indian businessman: <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/13/why-is-manufacturing-more-expensive-in-india-than-in-china/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/12/13/why-is-manufacturing-more- expensive-in-india-than-in-china/#1780e04c6301</a> .</li>\n 	<li>If we could segment the Indian stockmarket in South vs North, it is highly likely that in the South we would see company-specific factors being more important than the North. The North of India (specifically the area between the Pakistan and Bangladesh borders) is an economic disaster without parallel in the post-World War II era. Per capita income there is less than half that of the South. Female labour force participation there is lower than in Pakistan and Afghanistan. On human development indicators, North India is on par only with war torn African countries. If you exclude the megapolis around Delhi, in North India it does not make sense to even talk about company-specific factors.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIf you are managing money in India, you have to be able to understand the macroeconomy. If you can’t understand where the cost of funding or the exchange rate will go in India, you will have a tough time managing an Indian equities portfolio no matter how good your stock selection skills are.\n\nSecondly, because the macro is tough in India, very few companies are able to outperform over extended periods of time. If, for example, you ran a data crunch on the 1990s and look for companies who over that decade grew revenues each year by at least double digits alongside at least 12% post-tax ROCE, you find only 5 companies - NIIT, Cipla, Hero Moto, Swaraj Engines and HDFC. The good news is that if you purchased these stocks in 2000, by 2010 your portfolio would be up almost 10x. A similar data crunch in 2018 would give you 12 companies. Companies who survive the vicissitudes of India’s macro are world class and you profit from backing these stocks.\n\nThirdly, if life does get incrementally easier for SMEs going forward (India’s upward movement in World Bank’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ is encouraging on this front) and if cost of funding does fall for SMEs going forward (again, the past decade has been encouraging on this front) then the investment paradigm will change in India. One could then look to buy top quality smallcap companies and stay invested with them over extended periods (much like the young Warren Buffett did in post-World War II America)\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers</em>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'The Indian Stockmarket is Unique. Here is the Data.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '371-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 12:17:11', '2019-10-23 12:17:11', '', 371, 'http://marcellus.in/371-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(774, 1, '2019-04-29 18:33:57', '2019-04-29 18:33:57', '\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n 	<li>Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research</li>\r\n 	<li>Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio</li>\r\n 	<li>We are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a></li>\r\n 	<li>If you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</li>\r\n</ol>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:33:57', '2019-04-29 18:33:57', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(683, 1, '2019-04-02 16:46:25', '2019-04-02 16:46:25', '[caption id=\"attachment_83\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"1400\"]<img class=\"size-full wp-image-83\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/jobs-banner-bg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"143\" />\r\n\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none\">\r\n<ul>Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 16:46:25', '2019-04-02 16:46:25', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(667, 1, '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '<em>Published on: 24th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the world of safecrackers, the English vs Mother Tongue debate, how social media is transforming commerce, education and politics, leadership lessons from the Qantas CEO, what makes a fulfilling career and how cleaner environs are killing our immunity.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Meet the safecracker of last resort</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Geoff Manaugh\r\nSource: The Atlantic  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1e5f9d847&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/professional-safecracker-reveals-his-craft/577897/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: <em>“The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”</em>\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: <em>“As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: <em>“An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts...”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read:  \'We spoke English to set ourselves apart\': how I rediscovered my mother tongue</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=77d249ee04&amp;e=5648501957\">Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani</a>\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d8713c4ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/mar/14/we-spoke-english-to-set-ourselves-apart-nigeria-childhood-igbo-language</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.</em>\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. <em>“…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: What the hell is going on?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Perell\r\nSource: Perell (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78d4b57ab4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us would have observed and pondered over the effects of social media on various aspects of the society and economy alike. David Perell puts those observations in a framework that allows the reader to distinctly see these changes, especially focusing on the fields of commerce, education and politics and how the effects are in someways similar in all three fields. Central to the transformation is the shift from information scarcity to information abundance in the hands of the consumer, the student and the voter. Such a shift is obviously disrupting incumbents breaking down entry barriers (brand and distribution are no longer the competitive advantages that they used to be) whilst allowing new comers to take a shot at an industry’s profit pie which hitherto would have been out of reach given the stranglehold of mass media as the main tool of influence and the consequent prohibitive costs. <em>“…legacy advertisers, distribution channels, and the mass media once formed an impenetrable holy trinity but now that trinity rests on wobbly ground, and its parts will decompose into fossils of the Mass Media era….among the top 100 consumer-packaged good (CPG) brands, 90 percent experienced a decline in market share in 2015 and in the past three years, over $17 billion in sales has evaporated from the 10 largest U.S. packaged-food companies.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In education, large universities are being disintermediated to the benefit of both students and teachers to deliver the value proposition in the industry. David reckons ”Harvard and Stanford will be okay, but dark days are ahead for mid-tier universities” But given the unravelling of admission processes, it is not clear why the Ivy league should be any more moated.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Burdened by rising costs and unable to justify tuition prices, mid-tier universities are on the brink of bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen, who coined the term “disruption,\" <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a1e8751e73&amp;e=5648501957\">predicts</a> 50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States will be bankrupt in the next 10 to 15 years. The challenges are most acute for mid-size liberal arts schools such as Concord University in West Virginia. Its freshman enrollment fell 19% in five years. It burned through $12 million in reserves, and now it <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07da3a9f69&amp;e=5648501957\">can’t afford</a> to tear down to empty dormitories. “</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The best section of the article is the one on politics which David uses to conclude why despite the threat of fake news and the ability of politicians or anyone else wanting to use social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to influence public opinion, it is still better than the status quo – in the past, given the information asymmetry we took for granted any information thrown at us by an individual or entity with a perceived sense of authority – such as Walter Cronkite’s (the influential CBS anchor) role in tilting Amercians’ opinion about the Vietnam War or the role of Britannica encyclopedia as the ultimate authority on a subject of our curiosity vs our ability to question Wikipedia’s authenticity. Now with not just a shift towards information abundance but also two-way information flow, the ability to influence public opinion is with the anti-status quo.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In political science, the “Overton Window” represents the range of acceptable opinions in society. Rather than controlling speech itself, people can control speech by determining the limits of acceptable conversation. As Noam Chomsky, the father of modern linguistics said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Before cable, the limits of acceptable speech were enforced by political parties, who, due to their incentives for mass appeal, encouraged political centrism. With the stroke of a pen, small groups set narratives for the masses. Every town has one or two newspapers and three TV stations — all centrist, pro-business, and respectful of authority. Newspapers and television stations monopolized the distribution of information within their local territory. Through their power, they built social cohesion by eliminating diverse opinion and creating a shared intellectual ground for citizens…”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>  Short read: Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dan Pontefract\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=04dfffa09f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpontefract/2019/03/11/qantas-airways-ceo-delivered-a-masterclass-in-leadership/#6239a5ad6d1d</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: <em>“First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”</em>\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…</em>\r\n<em>Joyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”</em>\r\n<em>No word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b311d4051e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/ce31b2de-3a7b-11e9-b856-5404d3811663</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Your Environment Is Cleaner. Your Immune System Has Never Been So Unprepared</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Richtel\r\nSource: NY Times  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5a6216c8b4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/health/immune-system-allergies.html?action=click&amp;module=Discovery&amp;pgtype=Homepage</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When one of our readers sent this article to us, I immediately forwarded it to the missus to score a point in the endless debate over kids’ hygiene. But even the more relaxed amongst us are far more obsessed about cleanliness compared to our previous generations. Our fathers would have recommended applying a bit of soil from the football pitch on the wound from the fall and get on with the game but I am not sure if many from our generation would find it cool enough. Matt Richtel, in this well researched piece shows that with increase in cleanliness and hygiene conditions, humans’ immune system does not interact regularly with the natural world and hence becomes hyper sensitive and prone to allergies.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….”I tell people, when they drop food on the floor, please pick it up and eat it,” said Dr. Meg Lemon, a dermatologist in Denver who treats people with allergies and autoimmune disorders. “Get rid of the antibacterial soap. Immunize! If a new vaccine comes out, run and get it. I immunized the living hell out of my children. And it’s O.K. if they eat dirt.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dr. Lemon’s prescription for a better immune system doesn’t end there. “You should not only pick your nose, you should eat it,” she said. She’s referring, with a facetious touch, to the fact our immune system can become disrupted if it doesn’t have regular interactions with the natural world. “Our immune system needs a job,” Dr. Lemon said. “We evolved over millions of years to have our immune systems under constant assault. Now they don’t have anything to do.” She isn’t alone. Leading physicians and immunologists are reconsidering the antiseptic, at times hysterical, ways in which we interact with our environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..The British Journal of Homeopathy, volume 29, published in 1872, included a startlingly prescient observation: “Hay fever is said to be an aristocratic disease, and there can be no doubt that, if it is not almost wholly confined to the upper classes of society, it is rarely, if ever, met with but among the educated.” Hay fever is a catchall term for seasonal allergies to pollen and other airborne irritants. With this idea that hay fever was an aristocratic disease, British scientists were on to something. More than a century later, in November 1989, another highly influential paper was published on the subject of hay fever. The paper was short, less than two pages, in BMJ, titled “Hay Fever, Hygiene, and Household Size.” The author looked at the prevalence of hay fever among 17,414 children born in March 1958. Of 16 variables the scientist explored, he described as “most striking” an association between the likelihood that a child would get hay fever allergy and the number of his or her siblings.It was an inverse relationship, meaning the more siblings the child had, the less likely it was that he or she would get the allergy. Not just that, but the children least likely to get allergies were ones who had older siblings. The paper hypothesized that “allergic diseases were prevented by infection in early childhood, transmitted by unhygienic contact with older siblings, or acquired prenatally from a mother infected by contact with her older children. “Over the past century declining family size, improvements in household amenities, and higher standards of personal cleanliness have reduced the opportunity for cross infection in young families,” the paper continued. “This may have resulted in more widespread clinical expression of atopic disease, emerging in wealthier people, as seems to have occurred for hay fever.”</em>\r\n<em>“We survived over tens of thousands of years. Eventually, we washed our hands, swept our floors, cooked our food, avoided certain foods altogether. We improved the hygiene of the animals we raised and slaughtered for food. Particularly in the wealthier areas of the world, we purified our water, and developed plumbing and waste treatment plants; we isolated and killed bacteria and other germs. The immune system’s enemies list was attenuated, largely for the good. Now, though, our bodies are proving that they cannot keep up with this change. We have created a mismatch between the immune system — one of the longest surviving and most refined balancing acts in the world — and our environment. Thanks to all the powerful learning we’ve done as a species, we have minimized the regular interaction not just with parasites but even with friendly bacteria and parasites that helped to teach and hone the immune system — that “trained” it. It doesn’t encounter as many bugs when we are babies. This is not just because our homes are cleaner, but also because our families are smaller (fewer older children are bringing home the germs), our foods and water cleaner, our milk sterilized. Some refer to the lack of interaction with all kinds of microbes we used to meet in nature as the “old friends mechanism.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>What does the immune system do when it’s not properly trained? It can overreact. It becomes aggrieved by things like dust mites or pollen. It develops what we called allergies, chronic immune system attacks — inflammation — in a way that is counterproductive, irritating, even dangerous. The percentage of children in the United States with a food allergy rose 50 percent between 1997–1999 and 2009–2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The jump in skin allergies was 69 percent during that period, leaving 12.5 percent of American children with eczema and other irritations. Food and respiratory allergies rose in tandem with income level. More money, which typically correlates with higher education, has meant more risk of allergy. This may reflect differences in who reports such allergies, but it also springs from differences in environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These trends are seen internationally, too. Skin allergies “doubled or tripled in industrialized countries during the past three decades, affecting 15–30 percent of children and 2–10 percent of adults,” according to a paper citing research from the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. By 2011, one in four children in Europe had an allergy, and the figure was on the rise, according to a report by the World Allergy Organization. Reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis, the paper noted that migration studies have shown that children born overseas have lower levels of some types of both allergy and autoimmunity than migrants whose children are born in the United States.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51c49e62a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '24 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '665-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '2019-03-24 05:30:04', '', 665, 'http://marcellus.in/665-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(666, 1, '2019-03-24 05:27:17', '2019-03-24 05:27:17', '<em>Published on: 24th Mar, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the world of safecrackers, the English vs Mother Tongue debate, how social media is transforming commerce, education and politics, leadership lessons from the Qantas CEO, what makes a fulfilling career and how cleaner environs are killing our immunity.</strong></span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Meet the safecracker of last resort</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Geoff Manaugh\r\nSource: The Atlantic  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1e5f9d847&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/professional-safecracker-reveals-his-craft/577897/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: <em>“The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”</em>\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: <em>“As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: <em>“An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts...”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read:  \'We spoke English to set ourselves apart\': how I rediscovered my mother tongue</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=77d249ee04&amp;e=5648501957\">Adaobi Tricia Nwaubani</a>\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d8713c4ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theguardian.com/news/2019/mar/14/we-spoke-english-to-set-ourselves-apart-nigeria-childhood-igbo-language</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.</em>\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. <em>“…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: What the hell is going on?</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Perell\r\nSource: Perell (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78d4b57ab4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.perell.com/blog/what-the-hell-is-going-on</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most of us would have observed and pondered over the effects of social media on various aspects of the society and economy alike. David Perell puts those observations in a framework that allows the reader to distinctly see these changes, especially focusing on the fields of commerce, education and politics and how the effects are in someways similar in all three fields. Central to the transformation is the shift from information scarcity to information abundance in the hands of the consumer, the student and the voter. Such a shift is obviously disrupting incumbents breaking down entry barriers (brand and distribution are no longer the competitive advantages that they used to be) whilst allowing new comers to take a shot at an industry’s profit pie which hitherto would have been out of reach given the stranglehold of mass media as the main tool of influence and the consequent prohibitive costs. <em>“…legacy advertisers, distribution channels, and the mass media once formed an impenetrable holy trinity but now that trinity rests on wobbly ground, and its parts will decompose into fossils of the Mass Media era….among the top 100 consumer-packaged good (CPG) brands, 90 percent experienced a decline in market share in 2015 and in the past three years, over $17 billion in sales has evaporated from the 10 largest U.S. packaged-food companies.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In education, large universities are being disintermediated to the benefit of both students and teachers to deliver the value proposition in the industry. David reckons ”Harvard and Stanford will be okay, but dark days are ahead for mid-tier universities” But given the unravelling of admission processes, it is not clear why the Ivy league should be any more moated.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Burdened by rising costs and unable to justify tuition prices, mid-tier universities are on the brink of bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen, who coined the term “disruption,\" <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a1e8751e73&amp;e=5648501957\">predicts</a> 50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States will be bankrupt in the next 10 to 15 years. The challenges are most acute for mid-size liberal arts schools such as Concord University in West Virginia. Its freshman enrollment fell 19% in five years. It burned through $12 million in reserves, and now it <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07da3a9f69&amp;e=5648501957\">can’t afford</a> to tear down to empty dormitories. “</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The best section of the article is the one on politics which David uses to conclude why despite the threat of fake news and the ability of politicians or anyone else wanting to use social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to influence public opinion, it is still better than the status quo – in the past, given the information asymmetry we took for granted any information thrown at us by an individual or entity with a perceived sense of authority – such as Walter Cronkite’s (the influential CBS anchor) role in tilting Amercians’ opinion about the Vietnam War or the role of Britannica encyclopedia as the ultimate authority on a subject of our curiosity vs our ability to question Wikipedia’s authenticity. Now with not just a shift towards information abundance but also two-way information flow, the ability to influence public opinion is with the anti-status quo.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In political science, the “Overton Window” represents the range of acceptable opinions in society. Rather than controlling speech itself, people can control speech by determining the limits of acceptable conversation. As Noam Chomsky, the father of modern linguistics said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Before cable, the limits of acceptable speech were enforced by political parties, who, due to their incentives for mass appeal, encouraged political centrism. With the stroke of a pen, small groups set narratives for the masses. Every town has one or two newspapers and three TV stations — all centrist, pro-business, and respectful of authority. Newspapers and television stations monopolized the distribution of information within their local territory. Through their power, they built social cohesion by eliminating diverse opinion and creating a shared intellectual ground for citizens…”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>  Short read: Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Dan Pontefract\r\nSource: Forbes (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=04dfffa09f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.forbes.com/sites/danpontefract/2019/03/11/qantas-airways-ceo-delivered-a-masterclass-in-leadership/#6239a5ad6d1d</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: <em>“First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”</em>\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…</em>\r\n<em>Joyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”</em>\r\n<em>No word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janan Ganesh\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b311d4051e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/ce31b2de-3a7b-11e9-b856-5404d3811663</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Your Environment Is Cleaner. Your Immune System Has Never Been So Unprepared</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Richtel\r\nSource: NY Times  (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5a6216c8b4&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/12/health/immune-system-allergies.html?action=click&amp;module=Discovery&amp;pgtype=Homepage</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When one of our readers sent this article to us, I immediately forwarded it to the missus to score a point in the endless debate over kids’ hygiene. But even the more relaxed amongst us are far more obsessed about cleanliness compared to our previous generations. Our fathers would have recommended applying a bit of soil from the football pitch on the wound from the fall and get on with the game but I am not sure if many from our generation would find it cool enough. Matt Richtel, in this well researched piece shows that with increase in cleanliness and hygiene conditions, humans’ immune system does not interact regularly with the natural world and hence becomes hyper sensitive and prone to allergies.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….”I tell people, when they drop food on the floor, please pick it up and eat it,” said Dr. Meg Lemon, a dermatologist in Denver who treats people with allergies and autoimmune disorders. “Get rid of the antibacterial soap. Immunize! If a new vaccine comes out, run and get it. I immunized the living hell out of my children. And it’s O.K. if they eat dirt.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dr. Lemon’s prescription for a better immune system doesn’t end there. “You should not only pick your nose, you should eat it,” she said. She’s referring, with a facetious touch, to the fact our immune system can become disrupted if it doesn’t have regular interactions with the natural world. “Our immune system needs a job,” Dr. Lemon said. “We evolved over millions of years to have our immune systems under constant assault. Now they don’t have anything to do.” She isn’t alone. Leading physicians and immunologists are reconsidering the antiseptic, at times hysterical, ways in which we interact with our environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“..The British Journal of Homeopathy, volume 29, published in 1872, included a startlingly prescient observation: “Hay fever is said to be an aristocratic disease, and there can be no doubt that, if it is not almost wholly confined to the upper classes of society, it is rarely, if ever, met with but among the educated.” Hay fever is a catchall term for seasonal allergies to pollen and other airborne irritants. With this idea that hay fever was an aristocratic disease, British scientists were on to something. More than a century later, in November 1989, another highly influential paper was published on the subject of hay fever. The paper was short, less than two pages, in BMJ, titled “Hay Fever, Hygiene, and Household Size.” The author looked at the prevalence of hay fever among 17,414 children born in March 1958. Of 16 variables the scientist explored, he described as “most striking” an association between the likelihood that a child would get hay fever allergy and the number of his or her siblings.It was an inverse relationship, meaning the more siblings the child had, the less likely it was that he or she would get the allergy. Not just that, but the children least likely to get allergies were ones who had older siblings. The paper hypothesized that “allergic diseases were prevented by infection in early childhood, transmitted by unhygienic contact with older siblings, or acquired prenatally from a mother infected by contact with her older children. “Over the past century declining family size, improvements in household amenities, and higher standards of personal cleanliness have reduced the opportunity for cross infection in young families,” the paper continued. “This may have resulted in more widespread clinical expression of atopic disease, emerging in wealthier people, as seems to have occurred for hay fever.”</em>\r\n<em>“We survived over tens of thousands of years. Eventually, we washed our hands, swept our floors, cooked our food, avoided certain foods altogether. We improved the hygiene of the animals we raised and slaughtered for food. Particularly in the wealthier areas of the world, we purified our water, and developed plumbing and waste treatment plants; we isolated and killed bacteria and other germs. The immune system’s enemies list was attenuated, largely for the good. Now, though, our bodies are proving that they cannot keep up with this change. We have created a mismatch between the immune system — one of the longest surviving and most refined balancing acts in the world — and our environment. Thanks to all the powerful learning we’ve done as a species, we have minimized the regular interaction not just with parasites but even with friendly bacteria and parasites that helped to teach and hone the immune system — that “trained” it. It doesn’t encounter as many bugs when we are babies. This is not just because our homes are cleaner, but also because our families are smaller (fewer older children are bringing home the germs), our foods and water cleaner, our milk sterilized. Some refer to the lack of interaction with all kinds of microbes we used to meet in nature as the “old friends mechanism.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>What does the immune system do when it’s not properly trained? It can overreact. It becomes aggrieved by things like dust mites or pollen. It develops what we called allergies, chronic immune system attacks — inflammation — in a way that is counterproductive, irritating, even dangerous. The percentage of children in the United States with a food allergy rose 50 percent between 1997–1999 and 2009–2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The jump in skin allergies was 69 percent during that period, leaving 12.5 percent of American children with eczema and other irritations. Food and respiratory allergies rose in tandem with income level. More money, which typically correlates with higher education, has meant more risk of allergy. This may reflect differences in who reports such allergies, but it also springs from differences in environment.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>These trends are seen internationally, too. Skin allergies “doubled or tripled in industrialized countries during the past three decades, affecting 15–30 percent of children and 2–10 percent of adults,” according to a paper citing research from the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. By 2011, one in four children in Europe had an allergy, and the figure was on the rise, according to a report by the World Allergy Organization. Reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis, the paper noted that migration studies have shown that children born overseas have lower levels of some types of both allergy and autoimmunity than migrants whose children are born in the United States.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51c49e62a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '24 March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '665-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-03-24 05:27:17', '2019-03-24 05:27:17', '', 665, 'http://marcellus.in/665-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(684, 1, '2019-04-02 16:55:26', '2019-04-02 16:55:26', '[caption id=\"attachment_83\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"1400\"]<img class=\"size-full wp-image-83\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/jobs-banner-bg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"143\" />\r\n\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul>Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:\r\n 	<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 16:55:26', '2019-04-02 16:55:26', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(685, 1, '2019-03-31 17:18:42', '2019-03-31 17:18:42', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Doug Bock Clark\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Steve Johnson\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\nSource: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Taylor Lorenz\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '31st-march-2019', '', '', '2019-04-02 17:19:13', '2019-04-02 17:19:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=685', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(686, 1, '2019-04-02 16:59:58', '2019-04-02 16:59:58', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>          Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [31<sup>st</sup> March 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\nSince the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>2.       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\nAuthor: Doug Bock Clark\r\nSource: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\nThis is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\nAuthor: Steve Johnson\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\nAuthor: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>5.       </em><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\nAuthor: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\nSource: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>6.       </em><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\nAuthor: Taylor Lorenz\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\nTechnology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 16:59:58', '2019-04-02 16:59:58', '', 685, 'http://marcellus.in/685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(687, 1, '2019-04-02 17:11:18', '2019-04-02 17:11:18', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\nAuthor: Doug Bock Clark\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\nAuthor: Steve Johnson\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\nAuthor: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\nAuthor: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\nAuthor: Taylor Lorenz\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 17:11:18', '2019-04-02 17:11:18', '', 685, 'http://marcellus.in/685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(690, 1, '2019-04-02 17:18:42', '2019-04-02 17:18:42', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Doug Bock Clark\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Steve Johnson\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\nSource: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Taylor Lorenz\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 17:18:42', '2019-04-02 17:18:42', '', 685, 'http://marcellus.in/685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(688, 1, '2019-04-02 17:16:54', '2019-04-02 17:16:54', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Doug Bock Clark\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Steve Johnson\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\nAuthor: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Taylor Lorenz\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 17:16:54', '2019-04-02 17:16:54', '', 685, 'http://marcellus.in/685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(689, 1, '2019-04-02 17:18:05', '2019-04-02 17:18:05', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Google’s smart city project, the secret escape of North Korean refugees, the ballooning frontier market-debt, more signs of the bubble in tech, the Indian water crisis and Instagram as a professional networking tool for millennials.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>       <strong>Long read: Future shock: inside Google’s smart city</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Anna Nicolaou\r\nSource: FT (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb79027d9b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2FyD4nD</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems - congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>       Long read: The Underground Railroad of North Korea</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Doug Bock Clark\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: GQ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa5bd24b63&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.gq.com/story/underground-railroad-of-north-korea</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world\'s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong></em><em> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….“No one has a perfect bird\'s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong></em><em> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith\'s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today\'s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith\'s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>       Long read: Frontier market debt at a 15-year high</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Steve Johnson\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aec229c7a7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VK5X5C</a>)\r\nOxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its hi<em>ghest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”</em>\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. <em>“Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”</em>\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall, <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”</em>\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? <em>“Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Rani Molla\r\nSource: Recode (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ceceeb392f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.recode.net/2019/3/21/18274843/unprofitable-tech-unicorn-ipo-stock-market-profit</a>)\r\nIn what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. <em>“Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.</em>\r\n<em>For the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018…</em> <em>In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance….</em> <em>“In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Can India provide water for all by 2030?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: A Narayanamoorthy &amp; P Alli\r\nSource: Hindu Business Line (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bfdb1f6558&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030/article26600468.ece</a>)\r\n\r\nIndia draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World\'s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate…</em> <em>The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.</em>”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: <em>“The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India\'s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? <em>“The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Taylor Lorenz\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Source: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7ccc5a276a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/03/why-everyone-gives-out-their-instagram-handle/585916/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram - access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '31st March 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-02 17:18:05', '2019-04-02 17:18:05', '', 685, 'http://marcellus.in/685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(699, 1, '2019-04-07 18:12:37', '2019-04-07 18:12:37', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 7th April, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '7th-april-2019', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=699', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(700, 1, '2019-04-07 18:04:05', '2019-04-07 18:04:05', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\nAuthor: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong> <strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\nAuthor: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>  </em><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\nAuthor: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>6.      </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:04:05', '2019-04-07 18:04:05', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(693, 1, '2019-04-26 14:57:58', '2019-04-26 14:57:58', '<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\">Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019</a>\n\n<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_Newsletter_April_2019-compressed.pdf\">Marcellus_CCP   Newsletter  April_2019</a>\n\n&nbsp;', 'Newsletter', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '480-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-04-26 14:57:58', '2019-04-26 14:57:58', '', 480, 'http://marcellus.in/480-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(694, 1, '2019-04-05 09:00:13', '2019-04-05 09:00:13', '', 'Marcellus_Newsletter_April_2019-compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_newsletter_april_2019-compressed', '', '', '2019-04-05 09:00:13', '2019-04-05 09:00:13', '', 480, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_Newsletter_April_2019-compressed.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(695, 1, '2019-06-06 06:29:07', '2019-06-06 06:29:07', '<ul>\n 	<li>\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 06:29:07', '2019-06-06 06:29:07', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(696, 1, '2019-04-05 09:05:26', '2019-04-05 09:05:26', '<h4>February 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Click here </a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>March 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Newsletter_March_2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Click Here </a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>April 2019</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_Newsletter_April_2019-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click Here</a></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-05 09:05:26', '2019-04-05 09:05:26', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(746, 1, '2019-04-27 08:57:13', '2019-04-27 08:57:13', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>   February 2019 </em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>   March 2019 </em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>   April 2019</em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-27 08:57:13', '2019-04-27 08:57:13', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(697, 1, '2019-04-05 09:13:14', '2019-04-05 09:13:14', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>   <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">February 2019 </a></em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Newsletter_March_2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> March 2019 </a></em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><em>   <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_Newsletter_April_2019-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">April 2019</a></em></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-05 09:13:14', '2019-04-05 09:13:14', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(698, 1, '2019-04-05 14:10:36', '2019-04-05 14:10:36', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 5 April, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><strong><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Self-belief is known to be a magical catalyst with a proven track record of delivering transformational results in sport, in business and in investing. The roots of self-belief lie as much in the environment in which an individual finds herself in as in the innate characteristics she’s born with.</span></em></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“The world is a looking-glass, and gives back to every man the reflection of his own face. Frown at it, and it will in turn look sourly upon you; laugh at it and with it, and it is a jolly kind companion...”― <strong>William Makepeace Thackeray</strong> in Vanity Fair (1848)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“Promise yourself-\r\n• To be so strong that nothing can disturb your peace of mind.\r\n• To give so much time to the improvement of yourself that you have no time to criticize others.\r\n• To be too large for worry, too noble for anger, too strong for fear and too happy to permit the presence of trouble.”\r\n- From the creed of Optimists International, an organisation which sponsors clubs throughout the world (see https://optimist.org/member/creed.cfm)</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>India’s 1983 World Cup win</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the first two cricket world cups – held in England in 1975 and 1979 – India managed to win one match, that too against East Africa which was basically a collection of amateur Gujarati cricketers whose families had migrated from India to various African countries. As a result, most of Indian players (and the Indian team manager) who went to play the 1983 World Cup had purchased Mumbai to New York tickets with a stopover at London i.e. they saw the World Cup as a week long hiatus before an American holiday. One Indian however was crazy enough to believe that India could win the World Cup. That man was our then captain Kapil Dev. Indian opener Krish Srikkanth explained last year in a memorable interview how Kapil Dev was central to India’s epic victory against overwhelming odds in the 1983 cricket World Cup (watch <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwWrWzMbSdM\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwWrWzMbSdM )</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The remarkable thing about India’s 1983 win was that it wasn’t a flash in the pan. In 1985 India won the Rothmans Cup in Sharjah and the World Championship of Cricket in Australia. So as Srikkanth points out in the video, it really was a confidence thing for the Indian team. Until Kapil shook up the Indian cricketers in 1983, we didn’t really believe in our own abilities. Once the belief came through, India started beating everyone everywhere in one day cricket.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>What are the roots of self-belief?</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So if self-belief is so important to success, what are the roots, the foundations of this magic quality? And how can we get more of it? Whilst psychologists have not found clear answers for the roots of self-belief, there are two broad schools of thought regarding the foundations of self-belief.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The first school of thought views self-belief as an innate trait possessed by those who belief that they control their own destinies rather than being controlled by events external to them. As per this school of thought, every person you meet can be classified on a spectrum of optimism to pessimism. “…virtually all realms of human activity can be cast in goal terms, and people’s behaviour entails the identification and adoption of goals and the regulation of actions vis a vis these goals.” This is referred to as the self-regulation model. “Optimism enters into self-regulation when people ask themselves about impediments to the achievements of the goals they adopted. In the face of difficulties, do people nonetheless believe that the goals can be achieved? If so they are optimistic – if not, pessimistic. Optimism leads to continued efforts to attain the goal, whereas pessimism leads to giving up.” (Source: ‘Character Strengths and Virtues: A Handbook and Classification’ by Chris Peterson &amp; Martin Seligman (2004))</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second school of thought views self-belief as a learned behaviour – cultivated first by the love &amp; attention of caring parents &amp; teachers and then through self-discipline and goal oriented behaviour. As per this school of thought, you are more likely to have self-belief if in your formative years you learn that the way life pans out is largely in your control (rather than believing that catastrophic events completely beyond your control dictate the course of your life). In such a setting – where things are largely under control – if your parents and/or teachers inculcate in you a “growth mindset” i.e. that you can learn and train yourself to become a better version of yourself you are likely to grow into a person with a huge reservoir of self-belief.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In fact, Carole Dweck, author of the mega bestseller “The Growth Mindset”, has shown: “…when students had a growth mindset, a mindset which perceives a challenge as an opportunity to learn rather than an obstacle to overcome, they responded with constructive thoughts and their behavior showed persistence rather than defeat. From Dweck’s research into the growth mindset in regards to tenacity and its effects on achievement, especially in an educational setting, she discovered 4 factors that affect ongoing tenacity or grit:\r\n• Their beliefs about themselves\r\n• Their goals\r\n• Their feelings about their social connectedness\r\n• Their self-regulatory skills” (Source: https://positivepsychologyprogram.com/5-ways-develop-grit-resilience/)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As is evident from these bullets, Dweck’s work cleverly links self-belief as a ‘learned behaviour’ with self-belief as an innate trait. So perhaps that is the best way to think about self-belief – the basic sense of self worth comes from within and on top of that parents, teachers and circumstances can play a positive role to create a person with immense self-belief. [For those who like cricket, MS Dhoni’s biopic links these schools of thought nicely. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkBmh0s-7P8]</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whether you are running a business or managing money, any endeavour in which luck/randomness plays a role will test your self-belief – when the roll of the dice is against you, you will need self-belief to sustain your work ethic, to stick to your investment strategy and to avoid hasty decisions.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Furthermore, when it comes to investing in your business’ growth, you will need even more self-belief especially if your capital is limited and your are up against larger, better capitalised competitors. At times like these, it is useful to remember Kapil Dev’s words as he reminisced about India’s pathbreaking win in 1983 “Cricket was played by cultured people, 15 years ago,… They (his teammates) were cultured, I came from agriculture.\" (Source:\r\nhttps://www.livemint.com/Sports/8hqMmbwAa9JIdjjDOFiWDO/83-The-story-behind-Indias-greatest-win.html)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Kapil Dev’s rise in the 1980s and that of MS Dhoni twenty years later is the story of the rise of Indians who from modest beginnings found self-belief in a country which was gradually finding its feet as it recovered from degradations of colonisation and from the trauma of Partition. As India’s rebirth continues more Kapils and Dhonis will emerge to inject transformational self-belief into our teams and our businesses.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If self-belief is indeed dependent on the extent of volatility in the circumstances in which we grow up, as India becomes a more prosperous and hopefully a more peaceful country, we should see less fatalistic and more optimistic thinking amongst businesspeople in general and amongst Indian investors in particular. That should reduce the amount of speculative trading in the market and increase the amount of fundamentally oriented investing. That in turn should reduce market volatility and hence the cost of capital. Broadly speaking, the last 20 years have demonstrated these trends. Let’s hope that India’s positive evolution continues in the next 20 years.\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Marcellus: The Foundations of Self-Belief', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-foundations-of-self-belief', '', '', '2019-04-05 14:10:36', '2019-04-05 14:10:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=698', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(701, 1, '2019-04-07 18:04:59', '2019-04-07 18:04:59', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\nAuthor: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong> <strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\nAuthor: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>  </em><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\nAuthor: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>6.      </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:04:59', '2019-04-07 18:04:59', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(702, 1, '2019-04-07 18:06:00', '2019-04-07 18:06:00', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong> <strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\nAuthor: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>  </em><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\nAuthor: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>6.      </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:06:00', '2019-04-07 18:06:00', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(703, 1, '2019-04-07 18:06:51', '2019-04-07 18:06:51', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\nAuthor: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>  </em><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\nAuthor: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>6.      </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:06:51', '2019-04-07 18:06:51', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(704, 1, '2019-04-07 18:08:35', '2019-04-07 18:08:35', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>  </em><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\nAuthor: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>6.      </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:08:35', '2019-04-07 18:08:35', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(705, 1, '2019-04-07 18:10:59', '2019-04-07 18:10:59', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-07 18:10:59', '2019-04-07 18:10:59', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(717, 1, '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 7th April, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on what makes DE Shaw one of the most successful hedge funds, how the Chinese are dominating the Indian mobile apps space, how the world’s cheapest hospital needs to get cheaper, the concept of site-specific theatre, how mindfulness has fallen prey to capitalism and why meat eating in Japan was banned for centuries.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong>      <strong>Long read: DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Robin Wigglesworth\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=793e84b7c5&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/0364850c-3ebf-11e9-9bee-efab61506f44</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management - is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: <em>“…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”</em>\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: <em>“Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, <em>“DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: <em>“DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong> <strong>Long read: The World\'s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper</strong><strong> </strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Ari Altstedter\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48e8a6f2b7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. <em>“…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. <em>“We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: <em>“In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”</em>\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: <em>“Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: <em>“The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Shadma Shaikh\r\nSource: Factor Daily (<a href=\"https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/\">https://factordaily.com/the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n <span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong> Short read: In Kolkata, home is where the drama is</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sohini Chattopadhyay\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7b46352dc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-26/the-world-s-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper</a>)\r\nKolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. <em>“Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): <em>“When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? <em>“Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Kristi Allen\r\nSource: Atlas Obscura (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=20a6c04c5e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/japan-meat-ban</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n<em>“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong> Short read: Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Sean Illing/David Forbes\r\nSource: Vox (<a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes\">https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes</a> )\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?...</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '7th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '699-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '2019-04-14 12:13:41', '', 699, 'http://marcellus.in/699-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2000, 1, '2019-10-24 07:31:36', '2019-10-24 07:31:36', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 8 March, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Our mind sees &amp; remembers the world in stylised &amp; stereotypical terms. If a story doesn’t fit our stereotype, we don’t remember it and hence don’t celebrate it. The lives of three forgotten heroes – Malik Ambar, Dara Shukoh and VO Chidambaram Pillai – exemplify this point.  </strong></span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“A nation that forgets its heroes will soon itself be forgotten.”</em> – <strong>Calvin Coolidge </strong>(US President from 1923-29)</span></em></p>\n<strong>Our selective recall of our past</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most nations like to make a great show of how they celebrate the men and women who have shaped the n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">ation’s history. India is no different in that regard. However, the Indian public’s recollection of its historical heroes is somewhat selective. Leaving aside for a minute the reasons for this selective recall, here are three heroes whose names are rarely celebrated in Indian history inspite of the pioneering steps taken by each of them.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Malik Ambar (1548 – 1626): </strong>Malik Ambar lived one of the most extraordinary lives you will ever come across. Born in Ethiopia, Ambar was sold as a slave by his parents well before he was ten years old. His first owner was a businessman in Baghdad and he taught Ambar Arabic and finance and administration. Upon this death of his master, Ambar’s ownership changed hands several times over until in his late teens he found himself in the service Chengiz Khan, the chief minister of the Nizam Shahi dynasty (headquartered in Hyderabad). Chengiz was himself a former African slave and allowed Ambar to be his apprentice. When Chengiz died in 1575, Ambar became a mercenary and set upon building an army of crack troops which would at its peak number 50,000 and which would remain unbeaten by the Mughals (then at the peak of their powers under Akbar and subsequently Jahangir). Malik Ambar would go on to effectively become the master of the Deccan with the formidable fortress at Daulatabad (near Aurangadad) serving as his HQ. [It is worth visiting this remarkable citadel on top of a vertical incline to understand why this was one of the hardest fortresses in India to conquer; it was conquered only thrice in the 1000 years that it served as fortress.]</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">During his conquests, Ambar pioneered the guerrilla warfare tactics which Shivaji would copy and use equally effectively against the same enemy, the Mughals. Interestingly, the Marathas too were never able to beat Malik Ambar who died a peaceful death, away from the battlefield, at the ripe old age of 78.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Dara Shukoh (1615 – 1659)</strong>: Dara was Shah Jahan’s eldest son, his blue eyed boy and his publicly stated heir apparent. Thanks to the fortune that his doting father lavished upon him, Dara launched himself into a set of intellectual adventures which are without equal in the history of Mughal royalty. Dara learnt Sanskrit, had the Upanishads and the Old and the New Testament translated into Persian and composed a major work of his own called <em>Majma-al-bahrayn </em>(The Meeting Place of the Two Oceans). Thanks to Dara’s efforts the Europeans were for the first time able to access the Upanishads. More generally, Dara’s works were one of the first intellectual links between classical Indian texts and Western philosophers. The German philosopher, Arthur Schopenhauer, was introduced to Sanskrit philosophy courtesy Dara’s works and help spread Sanskrit’s influence in Western thought.\nUnfortunately for Dara, his younger brother Aurangzeb was watching with growing interest the Muslim clergy’s concern regarding Dara’s intellectual adventures. In 1657, Shah Jahan fell seriously ill and Aurangzeb moved in for the kill with a group of battle hardened troops. Dara was captured near Agra, paraded half naked in front of the public in Delhi and then shot dead in front of his terrified son.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>V. O. Chidambaram Pillai (1872 – 1936): </strong>In the early twentieth century there was nothing called an independence movement in southern India. VO Chidambaram Pillai, a practicing lawyer in Tuticorin, regarded the radical Bal Gangadhar Tilak as his political mentor. Before the Congress launched the Swadeshi movement in 1906 and a full decade before Mahatma Gandhi entered the Indian stage, Pillai kicked off the Swadeshi movement in south India in remarkable style. Shipping in Tuticorin was dominated by the powerful British India Steam Navigation Company (BI). Pillai created a joint stock company – funded by a broad based group of investors from Bombay, Calcutta and Colombo – and launched a rival shipping line in 1906. Soon, <em>The Hindu</em>, still south India’s leading newspaper, reported keen competition between Pillai’s company – Swadeshi Steam Navigation Company – and BI. In the years to come, BI, with the help of the British administration, derailed Swadeshi Steam but not before the Swadeshi flag – green, yellow and red horizontal stripes with the words “Vande Mataram” inscribed in the middle – was hoisted on these ships. In 1908 the British arrested Pillai for sedition and sentenced him to two life terms in prison. The arrest sparked violence and arson – the Tuticorin courts and Police HQ were set on fire – and the freedom movement was underway in the south. Chidambaram Pillai did hard labour in Cannanore Jail in Malabar making jute and pressing oil for the Crown. In modern day Tuticorin you will be lucky to find anyone who has heard of him.</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Why do we forget some heroes and remember others?</strong>\nOur minds, built as they are for understanding the world rather than remembering it, are especially weak at remembering things which don’t fit into conventional &amp; convenient narratives (see <a href=\"https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/defining-memories/201706/why-we-forget\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/defining-memories/201706/why-we-forget</a>). Malik Ambar’s story does not fit into an stereotypical narrative. As Sunil Khilnani puts it in his outstanding book “Incarnations: India in 50 lives” (2016): “…<em>in the Indian nationalist story…Shivaji was the great resister against the Muslim invaders. Yet with Malik Ambar we have evidence of someone even earlier who took on the Mughals – and whom they could not defeat. He’s not a Hindu. He’s not a native defender some ancient motherland. He’s an Ethiopian opportunist and power-entrepreneur…He doesn’t fit neatly into the standard narrative silos of Indian history – Hindu, Muslim and European.</em>” Similarly, Dara Shukoh neither fits into our stereotype of Mughal royalty nor into the standard narrative we build around our intellectuals.\nIn other words, our mind sees/remembers the world in stylised &amp; stereotypical terms. If a story doesn’t fit our stereotype, we don’t remember it and hence don’t celebrate it. This has obvious implications for the world of investing. Our mind struggles to process a real estate developer whose books are clean and whose capital allocation is sensible (even though there are such firms). Equally, our mind also struggles to comprehend a large cap Pharma company whose books are cooked and whose capital allocation is an excuse to pilfer cash. Outsized profits await those who are able to see world without stereotyped lenses.</span></p>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Heroes we Forget Hold a Mirror to Our Souls', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '594-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-24 07:31:36', '2019-10-24 07:31:36', '', 594, 'http://marcellus.in/594-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(893, 1, '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '<em>Published on: 16th June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Greg Bartalos\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Claudia Hammond\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Zachary Crockett\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5. Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Devin Gordon\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>6. Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '16th June 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '16th-june-2019', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=893', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(737, 1, '2019-04-26 14:02:46', '2019-04-26 14:02:46', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 26 April, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Even though habits account for 40% of the decisions that we make, the “thinking” part of the brain does NOT control our habits. Understanding the auto-reflex element of habit-driven decision making is central to nailing down why some promoters consistently allocate capital better than others</strong>.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: </strong><strong><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">https://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong><strong>]</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Habits are the invisible architecture of our lives…Habit allows us to go from ‘before’ to ‘after’, to make life easier and better. Habit is notorious – and rightly so – for its ability to direct our actions, even against our will…”</em> ― <em><strong>Gretchen Rubin </strong></em><em>in ‘Better than Before: Mastering the Habits of our Everyday Lives’ (2015)</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Habits drive 40% of our decision making</strong>\r\nOver the past 20 years psychologists have not only discovered that our habits are far more influential than we understood them to be but also that our habits are NOT controlled by the “thinking” part of our brain. To quote bestselling author Charles Duhigg:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Most of the choices we make each day may feel like the products of well-considered decision making but they’re not. They are habits. And though each habit means relatively little on its own, over time the meals we order, what we say to our kids each night…have enormous impacts on our health…and happiness. One paper published by a Duke University researcher in 2006 found that more than 40% of the actions people performed each day weren’t actual decisions, but habits….</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When you dream up a new invention…it’s the outside parts of your brain at work. That’s where the most complex thinking occurs. Deeper inside the brain and closer to…where the brain meets the spinal column, are older, more primitive structures. They control our automatic behaviours, such as breathing and swallowing…Towards the centre of the skull is a golf ball-sized lump of tissue that is similar to what you might find inside the head of a fish, reptile or mammal. This is the basil ganglia…[Scientists have found that] basil ganglia was central to recalling patters and acting on them. The basal ganglia, in other words, stored habits even while the rest of the brain went to sleep.</em>” – <em>Charles Duhigg in ‘The Power of Habit: Why we do what we do in life &amp; business’ (2014) [square brackets are ours]</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Advances in science have now helped us understand how habits (or the “Habit Loop”) work in a three step framework. Sequentially, these are</span></em><strong><strong>\r\n</strong></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. <strong>A cue : </strong></span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this is a trigger (something you see, smell or hear) that transfers the brain into an automatic mode which determines which habit to use;</em></span></em><strong><strong>\r\n</strong></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. <strong>A routine</strong></span></em>: <em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this is the heart of the habit and is typically a mental, emotional or physical routine; an<strong><strong>\r\n</strong></strong></em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. <strong>A reward</strong></span></em>: <em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this helps the brain ascertain if this specific loop is worth remembering for the future.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Duhigg says that, <em>\"The cue and reward become neurologically intertwined until a sense of craving emerges\"</em>. For example, when I wake up on weekdays, I keep my running shoes kept close to the bed. That is my cue that I need to get some exercise. That cue triggers a routine of putting on my gym clothes, going down to the gym and working out. Throughout this process, I need a reward which keeps me going through the dark Mumbai mornings (accompanied by heavy rain from June-September). My reward is a peanut butter sandwich with jam layered on top for breakfast. My wife ensures that I won’t get the sandwich if I don’t go to the gym. That’s how my exercise habit loop works.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The nature of our habits influences our investment returns</strong>\r\nClearly, our habits will influence financial decisions. Whilst this phenomena is multi-layered, it is possible to understand the understand the simplest layer in 200 words.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we meet companies, the meeting often place in the promoter’s office itself (rather than in a meeting room). Most such offices have a TV and hence the promoter is exposed to cues emanating from the TV. Associated with these cues, are likely to be routines/habits for the promoter eg. he might be accustomed to calling up his broker after seeing the share price of a stock he holds surge or he might have got into the habit of calling his CEO when he hears newsflow about a competitor. At the end of these routine(s), there is a “reward” that the promoter has got accustomed to receiving eg. his broker giving him good news regarding his stock portfolio (reward = “wealth trip”) or his CEO giving him good news regarding how the competition is being pulverised (reward = “power trip”). Such routines – either cued by TV, email or social media – form a large part of the working lives of many decision makers we meet. Much of the remainder of their time is taken up by meetings (which itself becomes another habit). As a result, very little of the corporate lives of many senior decision makers is actually used for thinking &amp; contemplation.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A small minority of promoters have no TVs in their offices; many of these promoters also don’t seem to make active use of mobile phones. Such people arguably have more time to think &amp; read i.e. more time NOT spent spinning on a habit loop. Such promoters are often to able see their industry from unusual angles. Unsurprisingly, there is a strong correlation between such promoters and our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. To quote from ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016): <em>“’Most Indian companies tend to focus on short-term results and hence that makes them frequently do things that deviate away from their articulated strategy…these deviations take them away from the path they have to travel to achieve their long term goals…the willingness to resist the temptation of short-term ‘off strategy’ profits for long-term sustainable gain is not there in most leading companies,’ writes Rama Bijapurkar, a leading market strategy consultant…</em>\r\n<em>The typical promoter profiled in [“The Unusual Billionaires’] is patient and persevering, even bordering of the boring. He ignores short-term thrills based on flavour-of-the-month ideas. He consciously rejects aggressive forays into unrelated businesses…Such behaviour requires tremendous patience and a willingness to ignore the stock market’s proclamations regarding prevailing fads and fashions.” </em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Berger Paints, Marico and HDFC Bank are amongst the companies covered in detail in “The Unusual Billionaires.” It is, I think, safe to say that the habits of the people running these firms have contributed substantially to the success of the three firms.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Our Habits, as Much as Our Brains, Drive Investment Decisions', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:53:13', '2019-11-06 06:53:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=737', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(711, 1, '2019-04-14 12:11:49', '2019-04-14 12:11:49', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 14th April, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\n\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong> Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong> <strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '14th April 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '14th-april-2019', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=711', 0, 'post', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(715, 1, '2019-04-14 12:07:22', '2019-04-14 12:07:22', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>5. Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\nA beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:07:22', '2019-04-14 12:07:22', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(712, 1, '2019-04-14 12:02:07', '2019-04-14 12:02:07', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>3.       Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>5. Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\nA beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:02:07', '2019-04-14 12:02:07', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(713, 1, '2019-04-14 12:03:53', '2019-04-14 12:03:53', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>3.       Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>5. Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\nA beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:03:53', '2019-04-14 12:03:53', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(714, 1, '2019-04-14 12:05:36', '2019-04-14 12:05:36', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>5. Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Author: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\nA beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:05:36', '2019-04-14 12:05:36', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(716, 1, '2019-04-14 12:10:22', '2019-04-14 12:10:22', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong> Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong> <strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:10:22', '2019-04-14 12:10:22', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(719, 1, '2019-04-14 12:15:20', '2019-04-14 12:15:20', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 7th April, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\n\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong> Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong> <strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:15:20', '2019-04-14 12:15:20', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(729, 1, '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry	</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '21st-april-2019', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=729', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(720, 1, '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 14th April, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on the lessons from basketball on investing, how Amazon workers could be listening to Alexa users’ conversations, lessons from the zip making industry, how single women are driving gentrification in cities, Buffet’s wide moat investing and Virgin Galactic’s customer service.</strong>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Two\'s Are Now Underestimated - The Mikan Drill For Stocks</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ryan\r\nSource: Krueger &amp; Catalano (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d0552c50a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kc-roi.com/blog/twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context - such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The star of the article is <em>“George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? <em>“George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? <em>“Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”</em>\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: <em>“All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users\' Conversations</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Matt Day, Giles Turner and Natalia Drozdiak\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b226d34897&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/is-anyone-listening-to-you-on-alexa-a-global-team-reviews-audio</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n<em>“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow. </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.” </em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      Long read: The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Francois Leveque\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dc926b61ac&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1578410/a-brief-history-of-the-humble-zipper-from-levis-to-ykk/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Igor Vojnovic &amp; Minting Ye\r\nSource: The Conversation (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=163db9ca47&amp;e=5648501957\">https://theconversation.com/how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere-99970</a>)\r\n\r\nAll of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”</em>\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. <em>“We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong> Short Read: Replicating Buffet\'s Wide Moat Investing Method</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Justin J. Carbonneau\r\nSource: Validea (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=64eb78b285&amp;e=5648501957\">http://blog.validea.com/replicating-buffett-wide-moat-investing-method/</a> )\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: <em>“</em><strong><em>A decade of earnings predictability:</em></strong><em> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.</em>\r\n<em><strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong></em><em> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. <em>“Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong> <strong>Short read: The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Elizabeth Culliford\r\nSource: Reuters (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bd0f33c6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://graphics.reuters.com/SPACE-EXPLORATION-VIRGINGALACTIC/010091EW222/index.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '14th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '2019-04-14 12:15:52', '', 711, 'http://marcellus.in/711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(721, 1, '2018-11-05 12:36:11', '2018-11-05 12:36:11', 'Ashvin has more than 10 years of experience in equity research. He led the coverage on automobile sector at Ambit Capital from 2010 to 2017. He was ranked in Starmine Analyst Awards 2013 and 2016 for his stock picking abilities during this stint. He thereafter worked as a senior analyst for Ambit’s Mid and Small cap PMS funds till November 2018. Prior to joining Ambit, he worked with Execution Noble as an analyst covering consumer and media space. He has also worked with KPMG’s and Deloitte’s statutory audit departments from 2004 to 2007 gaining extensive experience across Indian accounting standards and financial statement analysis.\r\n\r\nQualifications: Ashvin is a BCom graduate from Narsee Monjee College (Mumbai). He is a qualified Chartered Accountant (ICAI India) and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA Institute, USA).', 'Ashvin Shetty, CFA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ashvin-shetty-cfa', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:11:47', '2020-04-16 12:11:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=team&#038;p=721', 0, 'team', '', 0),
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(725, 1, '2019-04-14 12:50:07', '2019-04-14 12:50:07', '', 'Photo (2)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'photo-2', '', '', '2019-04-14 12:50:31', '2019-04-14 12:50:31', '', 599, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Photo-2.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(728, 1, '2019-04-18 14:05:45', '2019-04-18 14:05:45', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 18 April, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The rapidly growing sharing economy, and the availability of easy credit for pursuing ‘dreams’ and ‘desires’, together are shaping the attitude of young Indians towards buying assets. The impact is most visible in the waning demand for assets that demand long-term financial commitments and where options exist to delink usage from ownership. We are already seeing the changed attitudes impacting car buying and home buying. As these changes disrupt the housing property market, businesses will need to adapt their models accordingly. In parallel, exciting new business models will emerge.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If there is an award for the Business Buzzword of the last decade, ‘Disruption’ would surely be a frontrunner for the prize. A lot has been written about how several different businesses, from city transport to credit cards and from enterprise IT to insurance, have either been already disrupted or are facing severe threats from new business models, especially technology-enabled ones. These industries are seeing what we can call the ‘first-degree’ impact of disruption. Shopping online is a direct threat to the traditional retail model as is use of payment wallets to credit cards. The interplay of the first-degree effects in different industries over time is likely to drive derivative effects in completely unrelated businesses. One such business is likely to be residential real estate.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There are changes we are seeing in two disparate industries, the outcomes of which will shape how future generations will think of buying property.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">First is the evolution of fintech models, that are rapidly changing how and, more pertinently, who consumes credit. Using data as obvious as your borrowing history, to data from your browsing and search history and phone contacts list, new age lenders are making credit available to a much wider set of people and for a much wider purpose than banks traditionally have. Today you can borrow money for a destination wedding, with the lender exhorting you to not let money be a constraint in getting the finest venue, outfits and caterers! And you can follow that up with a loan for the honeymoon as well. My favourite <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Companies/OTEdrhCiBcJpLM3oSXYyEI/Ordering-food-online-Heres-how-you-can-pay-for-it-later.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">is LazyPay</a>&gt;, which can give you a 2-week interest-free credit when you order food (among other things) online. Elders in my family would pity my mother if they hear that I am borrowing money for dinner!</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">While today the <a href=\"https://scroll.in/magazine/891189/for-indian-millennials-travel-is-a-way-of-life-and-theyre-even-taking-loans-to-fund-it\" rel=\"nofollow\"> biggest users of such loans are the millennials </a>i.e. those who achieved adulthood at the turn of the millennium, as these products become more widespread, adoption amongst the post millennials (Generation Z; those born in and after the 1990s) will only rise with time. A typical post millennial starting out on a career was born post 1991, in an India with no artificial supply constraints, and hence has not known deferment of gratification that the older generations grew up with. If the Gen Z can fulfil a desire and there is someone ready to help them with the funding, they are more than willing to consider it. Talk to a 25-year old and you can hear stories of how some of his/her friends are regulars at the Sunburn music festival in Goa, or have been to Singapore for the F1 weekend, and have aspirations to travel to Germany for Oktoberfest.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Simultaneously, the other disruption that is shaping consumer behaviour is the sharing economy. We are already seeing privately owned cars being <a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/auto-news/how-car-ownership-is-changing-rapidly-and-irreversibly-in-india/articleshow/66296079.cms\" rel=\"nofollow\"> replaced by Ola or Uber for daily commutes </a>. Car ownership has been seeing a significant downgrade in priority in the millennials’ consumption bucket list. Why buy a car and get in to a long-term commitment for EMIs, insurance, maintenance etc. when a chauffeur-driven vehicle is available anytime and anywhere.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fast forward a decade and we will have a whole generation of people who’ve come to realise they don’t need to own an asset to use or enjoy it. And even if they were to think of buying an asset, is there room for another monthly instalment in their budgets, after having spent on an exotic vacation and for the latest iPhone? Buying a large ticket asset such as real estate then seems to be an impossible task, especially in the metro cities where property prices are unaffordable for most white-collar workers even today. A generation conditioned by the conveniences of a sharing economy, and the ubiquity of cheap credit that spurs consumption, will have a detached attitude towards home buying, a purchase/investment which once upon a time was seen as a milestone for Indian families. Millennials and Generation Z will see lesser merit in buying a home and greater sense in renting one, especially given the huge differential (4-5x) between rents and an EMI for a loan on the same house. They would rather spend the difference on consumer durables or holidays or even <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Money/Y4F0nBaOnZbcPqiqFuO1sI/Why-millennials-dont-like-real-estate.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> invest </a> it. Other demographic changes, such as higher mobility (for jobs across cities) and late marriages will also increasingly shape the demand for residential property – owned or rented. Some of these trends, in varying degrees, have been seen in the US and<a href=\"https://www.scmp.com/tech/e-commerce/article/2165861/chinese-millennials-buy-now-pay-later-mentality-fuels-thriving-micro\" rel=\"nofollow\"> China </a>too,</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That does not imply that the younger generations will forever stay in rented homes. Just that they will feel no pressing need to make that a priority i.e. they will postpone their home buying. And it doesn’t take long for such behavioural changes to impact share prices - we are seeing the effect that just 6 years of Uber’s operations in India have had on demand for cars in India.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is the second degree or derivative disruption that will be felt in the residential housing industry and will require adapting the current entrenched business models to changing buying behaviour. If more people are likely to rent homes in the future, residential real estate will acquire hues of commercial property development, where developers are also landlords. However, given the poor yield in residential real estate (3% at best), developers currently have no incentive to own property. Therefore, for reviving and sustaining interest in residential housing as an attractive investment, either yields must increase materially, or home prices need to correct massively – both of which will be hugely disruptive.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">More people renting homes will also impact businesses such as real estate classifieds (and websites that offer such services), movers and packers, furniture rentals among others. Owners/managers of these businesses will see a third-degree impact and will have to think of the extent of disruption that will hit them and how resilient their business model is to such changes. At the same time, <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/companies/start-ups/end-to-the-house-hunt-india-s-rental-disruptors-1549907714969.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> new business models </a> will make deeper inroads. Either way, the next decade is set to be exciting for the housing property market in India.</span></em></p>\r\n<em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Three Degrees of Disruption in Home Buying in India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-three-degrees-of-disruption-in-home-buying-in-india', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:32:10', '2019-11-06 06:32:10', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=728', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(730, 1, '2019-04-21 18:17:02', '2019-04-21 18:17:02', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n2.      <strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\nMonica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.      <strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\nAfter enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.      Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry</strong>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\nMegan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.      Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>6.      </em><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\nThis article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:17:02', '2019-04-21 18:17:02', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(731, 1, '2019-04-21 18:20:25', '2019-04-21 18:20:25', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n3.      <strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\nAfter enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.      Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry</strong>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\nMegan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.      Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>6.      </em><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\nThis article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:20:25', '2019-04-21 18:20:25', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(732, 1, '2019-04-21 18:25:36', '2019-04-21 18:25:36', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry	</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:25:36', '2019-04-21 18:25:36', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(733, 1, '2019-04-21 18:28:21', '2019-04-21 18:28:21', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry	</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:28:21', '2019-04-21 18:28:21', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(735, 1, '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry	</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '2019-04-21 18:30:11', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(734, 1, '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on fulfilment from work, lessons from the Sweden’ social welfare, valuing cannabis companies, women in hedge fund industry and their pay differential generally and Netanyahuism in Israel and globally.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: The Moral Peril of Meritocracy</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: David Brooks\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a9f614d608&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/06/opinion/sunday/moral-revolution-david-brooks.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n<em>“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.</em>\r\n<em>These hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”</em>\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: <em>“But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”</em>\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. <em>“Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.</em>\r\n<em>But other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.</em>\r\n<em>They realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”</em>\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n<em>“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.</em>\r\n<em>Then there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).</em>\r\n<em>When people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Monica Prasad\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c064ee3329&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/opinion/europe-taxes-sweden.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n<em>“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.</em>\r\n<em>We can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.</em>\r\n<em>On the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………</em>\r\n<em>To move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.</em>\r\n<em>None of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: How to Value a Pot Stock </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Tara Lachapelle and Sarah Halzack\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f721597b8a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/how-to-value-a-pot-stock-1.1246593</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n<em>“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business? </em>\r\n<em>…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.</em>\r\n<em>The dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures. </em>\r\n<em>It’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive. </em>\r\n<em>Take the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.</em>\r\n<em>But the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues. </em>\r\n<em>A better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.</em>\r\n<em>Remember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”</em>\r\n<em>Knowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry	</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Megan Tobias Neely\r\nSource: Wipsociology (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2dba07aace&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.wipsociology.org/2018/09/15/elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n<em>“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”</em>\r\n<em>Karen’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)</em>\r\n<em>Yet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.</em>\r\n<em><u>Patronage on wall street</u></em>\r\n<em>In the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.</em>\r\n<em>Julia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..</em>\r\n<em>Jay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.</em>\r\n<em>“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”</em>\r\n<em>“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.</em>\r\n<em>“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”</em>\r\n<em>This patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.</em>\r\n<em><u>A revolving door</u></em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….</em>\r\n<em>Patrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read:  Netanyauism is Winning in Israel - and Globally</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Max Fisher &amp; Amanda Taub\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=696e2ed82f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/INT_12137.html?nlid=25282463</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. <em>“Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. <em>“Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”</em>\r\n<em>For 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”</em>\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow:<em> “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”</em>\r\n<em>More and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\n <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Janet Paskin\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72071b8218&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/the-pay-check-what-having-kids-does-to-women-s-pay</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). <em>“At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.</em>\r\n<em>Claudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”…</em> <em>According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”</em>\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “<em>Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '21st April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '729-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '2019-04-21 18:29:01', '', 729, 'http://marcellus.in/729-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(749, 1, '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Scheme Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1 Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only) Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) Quarterly\r\n2 Discretionary (Fixed &amp; Variable Fees) Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3 Discretionary (variable fees only) Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 50 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client.\r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client.\r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client).\r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements.', 'FAQs', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'faqs', '', '', '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?page_id=749', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(751, 1, '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '2019-04-27 09:12:54', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(773, 1, '2019-04-29 18:33:30', '2019-04-29 18:33:30', '[caption id=\"attachment_83\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"1400\"]<img class=\"size-full wp-image-83\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/jobs-banner-bg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"143\" />\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>to build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.</li>\r\n 	<li>Such a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research</li>\r\n 	<li>Repeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio</li>\r\n 	<li>We are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a></li>\r\n 	<li>If you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.</li>\r\n</ol>', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:33:30', '2019-04-29 18:33:30', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(771, 1, '2019-04-29 18:13:48', '2019-04-29 18:13:48', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosoph\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:13:48', '2019-04-29 18:13:48', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(754, 1, '2019-04-27 10:15:58', '2019-04-27 10:15:58', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)</li>\r\n 	<li>Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced</li>\r\n 	<li>Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-27 10:15:58', '2019-04-27 10:15:58', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(768, 1, '2019-04-29 18:08:50', '2019-04-29 18:08:50', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)</li>\r\n 	<li>3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced</li>\r\n 	<li>4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:08:50', '2019-04-29 18:08:50', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(755, 1, '2019-04-27 10:23:45', '2019-04-27 10:23:45', '[caption id=\"attachment_83\" align=\"aligncenter\" width=\"1400\"]<img class=\"size-full wp-image-83\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/our-team-banner-bg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1400\" height=\"143\" />\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)</li>\r\n 	<li>Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced</li>\r\n 	<li>Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-27 10:23:45', '2019-04-27 10:23:45', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(767, 1, '2019-04-29 18:23:34', '2019-04-29 18:23:34', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosoph\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo.	Scheme	Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged	Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1	Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only)	Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter)	Quarterly\r\n2	Discretionary (Fixed & Variable Fees)	Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark	Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3	Discretionary (variable fees only)	Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark	Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 25 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client. \r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client. \r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client). \r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements. \r\n\r\n\r\n', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:23:34', '2019-04-29 18:23:34', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(757, 1, '2019-04-28 16:34:41', '2019-04-28 16:34:41', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [28<sup>th</sup> April 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore<</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\nSo why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em> From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.\r\nHere is Tagore writing in 1885, <em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\nSecondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\nThirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati <em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.\r\nFourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\nThis debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\nFinally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation. <em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\nCharlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect: <em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\nSo what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with <em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\nAnd finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought: <em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\nLast week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this. <em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….” </em>These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\nSo how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\nDetroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\nFrom our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? <em>“It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\nFirstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\nThirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts. <em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\nFourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score. <em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\nFifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\nMost smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\nMuch is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\nWhilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. 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(758, 1, '2019-04-28 16:39:01', '2019-04-28 16:39:01', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [28<sup>th</sup> April 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\nSo why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em> From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.\r\nHere is Tagore writing in 1885, <em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\nSecondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\nThirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati <em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.\r\nFourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\nThis debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\nFinally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation. <em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\nspan style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect: <em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\nSo what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with <em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\nAnd finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought: <em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\nLast week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this. <em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….” </em>These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\nSo how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\nDetroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\nFrom our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? <em>“It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\nFirstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\nThirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts. <em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\nFourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score. <em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\nFifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\nMost smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\nMuch is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\nWhilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. 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(759, 1, '2019-04-28 16:39:59', '2019-04-28 16:39:59', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [28<sup>th</sup> April 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\nSo why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em> From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.\r\nHere is Tagore writing in 1885, <em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\nSecondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\nThirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati <em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.\r\nFourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\nThis debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\nFinally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation. <em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect: <em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\nSo what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with <em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\nAnd finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought: <em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\nLast week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this. <em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….” </em>These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\nSo how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\nDetroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\nFrom our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? <em>“It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\nFirstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\nThirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts. <em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\nFourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score. <em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\nFifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\nMost smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\nMuch is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\nWhilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. 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(760, 1, '2019-04-28 16:40:18', '2019-04-28 16:40:18', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [28<sup>th</sup> April 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\nSo why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em> From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.\r\nHere is Tagore writing in 1885, <em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\nSecondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\nThirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati <em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.\r\nFourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\nThis debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\nFinally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation. <em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect: <em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\nSo what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with <em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\nAnd finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought: <em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\nLast week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this. <em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….” </em>These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\nSo how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\nDetroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\nFrom our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? <em>“It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\nFirstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\nThirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts. <em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\nFourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score. <em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\nFifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\nMost smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\nMuch is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\nWhilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. 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(761, 1, '2019-04-28 16:44:23', '2019-04-28 16:44:23', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Three longs &amp; three shorts: this week’s best reads [28<sup>th</sup> April 2019]</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\nSo why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em> From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.\r\nHere is Tagore writing in 1885, <em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\nSecondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\nThirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati <em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.\r\nFourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\nThis debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\nFinally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation. <em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect: <em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\nSo what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with <em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\nAnd finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought: <em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this. <em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….” </em>These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\nSo how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\nDetroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? <em>“It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\nFirstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\nThirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts. <em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\nFourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score. <em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\nFifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\nWhilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-28 16:44:23', '2019-04-28 16:44:23', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(762, 1, '2019-04-28 17:52:47', '2019-04-28 17:52:47', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-28 17:52:47', '2019-04-28 17:52:47', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(763, 1, '2019-04-28 17:54:35', '2019-04-28 17:54:35', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p></span>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-28 17:54:35', '2019-04-28 17:54:35', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(764, 1, '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em>Published on: 21st April, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p></span>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '2019-04-28 17:55:54', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(765, 1, '2019-04-28 17:56:52', '2019-04-28 17:56:52', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em>Published on: 28th April, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>\r\n\r\n[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p></span>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-28 17:56:52', '2019-04-28 17:56:52', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(770, 1, '2019-04-29 18:11:20', '2019-04-29 18:11:20', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1. 1. Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. 2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. 3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. 4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:11:20', '2019-04-29 18:11:20', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(769, 1, '2019-04-29 18:09:52', '2019-04-29 18:09:52', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)</li>\r\n 	<li>3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced</li>\r\n 	<li>4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:09:52', '2019-04-29 18:09:52', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(772, 1, '2019-04-29 18:24:04', '2019-04-29 18:24:04', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosoph\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo.	Scheme	Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged	Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1	Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only)	Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter)	Quarterly\r\n2	Discretionary (Fixed & Variable Fees)	Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark	Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3	Discretionary (variable fees only)	Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark	Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 25 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client. \r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client. \r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening. \r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client). \r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements. \r\n\r\n\r\n', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-04-29 18:24:04', '2019-04-29 18:24:04', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(781, 1, '2019-05-01 07:11:53', '2019-05-01 07:11:53', '', 'Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019-compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_newsletter_may_2019-compressed', '', '', '2019-05-01 07:11:53', '2019-05-01 07:11:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019-compressed.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(782, 1, '2019-05-01 07:14:12', '2019-05-01 07:14:12', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i>  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> February 2019</a> </i></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i>  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">March 2019</a> </i></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">April 2019</a></i></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">May 2019</a></i></h3>\r\n<i></i></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-01 07:14:12', '2019-05-01 07:14:12', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(783, 1, '2019-05-01 07:23:34', '2019-05-01 07:23:34', '', 'dd', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dd-3', '', '', '2019-05-01 07:24:12', '2019-05-01 07:24:12', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(784, 1, '2019-05-01 07:33:02', '2019-05-01 07:33:02', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-01 07:33:02', '2019-05-01 07:33:02', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(786, 1, '2019-05-03 15:33:49', '2019-05-03 15:33:49', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 3 May, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The renewed easing of monetary policy by the Fed is unsustainable. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to prepare for the end of accommodative monetary policy in the US. For India, such a regime change, would increase the cost of capital, hurt Indian real estate and those who finance the same. It could however help shore up India’s flagging household savings rate even as it depresses discretionary consumption in India. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“If the Federal Reserve were to signal…the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve put on stock markets, much of the problems associated with financial capitalism – poor returns to labour, excessive...executive compensations, short-term investment horizons, preference to financial over real investments, investor indifference to risk, build-up of public and private debt and systemic risk – would begin to sort themselves out…The rise of finance has been too steep and has crossed the peak usefulness for many societies.”</em> ― <strong>V.Anantha Nageswaran &amp; Gulzar Natarajan</strong> in ‘The Rise of Finance: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ (2019)</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>What the Fed is doing is scary</strong>\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over 50 years ago, Hyman Minsky famously said that <em>“Stability leads to instability. The more stable things becomes and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.”</em></span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We can’t think of a better demonstration of Minsky’s theory than what the Federal Reserve has been upto since 21<sup>st</sup> December 2018. Spooked by the correction witnessed in US equity markets in December 2018, the Fed did an abrupt turnaround in monetary policy (from hiking rates to not hiking, from shrinking its balance sheet to not shrinking it any more). In fact, if the US media is to be believed, the Fed is about to announce a new variant of QE: <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/fed-looking-at-a-program-that-could-be-version-of-quantitative-easing.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/fed-looking-at-a-program-that-could-be-version-of-quantitative-easing.html </a>. The Fed doesn’t seem to care that unemployment in America is at 20-year low or that equity and residential real estate valuations in America (as measured by P/E multiples and rental yields respectively) are higher than they were prior to the Lehman crisis.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Fed’s behaviour is compounded by a US President who wants monetary policy to be relaxed further and by central bankers across the world who are falling over each other in trying to follow the Fed. Thanks to these central bankers, we are seeing IPOs at wonderful valuations eg. USD3 billion for a coffee company in China: <a href=\"https://in.reuters.com/article/us-luckin-coffee-ipo-breakingviews/breakingviews-chinas-wannabe-starbucks-brews-a-muddy-ipo-idINKCN1RZ0ET\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://in.reuters.com/article/us-luckin-coffee-ipo-breakingviews/breakingviews-chinas-wannabe-starbucks-brews-a-muddy-ipo-idINKCN1RZ0ET </a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Financialisation creates significant political risk for the West</strong>\r\nThis sort of accommodation of financial markets further enriches the American elite and further taxes the ordinary Jane Doe (through more expensive real estate and more generally through the higher cost of living). In a hard hitting new book, Anantha Nageswaran and Gulzar Natarajan lay out some sobering facts with regards to the United States:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>1. “Credit market debt and the market value of equities in America were 212% of GDP in 1981 and 514% of GDP in 2014. </em></span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>2. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve exploded from USD 200 billion to USD 4.5 trillion. Call that 23x gain…</em></span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>3. During the same years, the value of non-financial US corporate equities rose from USD 2.3 trillion to USD 23.6 trillion. Call it 10.3x…</em></span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>4. The median nominal income of US families increased from USD 31,000 to USD 71,000 over the over the period. Call it 2.3x….</em></span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>5. The average weekly wage of full-time workers in constant 1982 dollars was USD 330 per week in 1987 and is currently USD 340. Call it 1.03x.” (Source: ‘The Rise of Finance: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ – V.Anantha Nageswaran &amp; Gulzar Natarajan (2019)</em></span></em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As Western monetary policies continue to exacerbate pronounced inequalities, it feels like a matter of time before populist pressures force a withdrawal of such monetary policies (labelled the ‘Greenspan Put’ to celebrate the man who led America down the garden path). Whilst it is not possible for us to guess when such a policy reversal will take place, it is incumbent upon us to prepare for it.</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Focusing on downside risk</strong>\r\nThe most likely consequence of the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve/Greenspan Put will be a sustained rise in the cost of capital globally. The US 10-year Government bond yield is the world’s risk free rate. As shown by this link (<a href=\"https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart</a>) for nearly forty years this rate has been falling. It bottomed out at 1.5% in August 2016 (down from 15.4% in September 1981). To quote from our 19<sup>th</sup> November 2018 piece: <em>“This epic downward trend in the world’s risk free rate has defined most of our careers. Had it not been for this downward trend, it is doubtful whether Emerging Market equities or Private Equity or Real Estate for that matter would be as big an asset class today as it has become.” </em>(See <a href=\"/blogs/have-we-hit-peak-finance/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/have-we-hit-peak-finance/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From 1.5% in August 2016, the US 10-year Government bond yield has risen to 2.5% in April 2019. If one looks forward, there is good reason to believe that the US 10-year bond yield will rise towards 5% (which is where it was before the Lehman crisis struck) if the political consensus in America shifts against the accommodation of Wall Street at the expense of Jane Doe.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such a rise in US interest rates will almost certainly have a corresponding impact on the cost of money in India. Assuming a similar rise in the cost of money in India will take the Government of India ten year bond yield nearer to 9-10% (compared to the current 7-8%). How will that impact the Indian stockmarket?</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We see three layers of impact playing out:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. The immediate consequence looks likely to be a shift in lending market share from the NBFCs to private sector banks (especially private banks with strong CASA franchises). Given the issues already plaguing the wholesale money market in India (IL&amp;FS, Essel, Debt mutual funds’ challenges, etc) this shift in market share in favour of private banks is already underway. A sustained rise in the US 10-year bond yield could make this shift more long lasting.</span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. The medium term consequence looks likely to be a rise in household financial savings (India’s household savings rate has fallen sharply from 25% in FY10 to 17% in FY17) and a drop in discretionary consumption (which has boomed over the last decade). Such a shift could create further issues for sectors like residential real estate and auto. The challenge could also extend to next rung down of discretionary consumption eg. electricals, consumer durables. On the other hand, the rise in household financial savings should help India’s banks (most of whom are struggling to attract deposits).</span></em></li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. The longer term consequence looks likely to be a drop in the price of land, real estate and fixed assets as the world and India gets accustomed to more expensive capital. (On this issue, my colleague, Salil Desai has written an interesting piece: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-three-degrees-of-disruption-in-home-buying-in-india/\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-three-degrees-of-disruption-in-home-buying-in-india/</a>) It is hard to  gauge the full consequences of such a readjustment in fixed asset prices. Perhaps it will lead to a renewal of interest of gold as a safeharbour asset. Alternatively, it could lead to greater household financial savings as highlighted in the preceding bullet.</span></em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nOur straightforward style of investing in companies which consistently generate double digit revenue growth alongside delivering Return of Capital consistently in excess of cost of capital typically pushes us away from the sorts of companies which seem likely to suffer if the world readjusts to a permanently higher cost of capital.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As shown in the Appendices of both of my bestselling books “The Unusual Billionaires” (2016) and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth” (2018), our portfolios tend to: <strong>(a)</strong> correct much less than the broader market in the wake of a financial upheaval; and <strong>(b)</strong> recover more quickly than the broader market once the upheaval has subsided. Worrying comes naturally to risk averse investors like us as we seek to ascertain when this extraordinary accommodation of financial markets by Western central bankers will end.</span></em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Fed’s Accommodation of Wall Street: Endgame', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-feds-accommodation-of-wall-street-endgame', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:52:21', '2019-11-06 06:52:21', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=786', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1984, 1, '2019-10-23 05:28:54', '2019-10-23 05:28:54', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 26 April, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Even though habits account for 40% of the decisions that we make, the “thinking” part of the brain does NOT control our habits. Understanding the auto-reflex element of habit-driven decision making is central to nailing down why some promoters consistently allocate capital better than others</strong>.</span></em></p>\n<strong>[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: </strong><strong><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong><strong>]</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Habits are the invisible architecture of our lives…Habit allows us to go from ‘before’ to ‘after’, to make life easier and better. Habit is notorious – and rightly so – for its ability to direct our actions, even against our will…”</em> ― <em><strong>Gretchen Rubin </strong></em><em>in ‘Better than Before: Mastering the Habits of our Everyday Lives’ (2015)</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Habits drive 40% of our decision making</strong>\nOver the past 20 years psychologists have not only discovered that our habits are far more influential than we understood them to be but also that our habits are NOT controlled by the “thinking” part of our brain. To quote bestselling author Charles Duhigg:</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Most of the choices we make each day may feel like the products of well-considered decision making but they’re not. They are habits. And though each habit means relatively little on its own, over time the meals we order, what we say to our kids each night…have enormous impacts on our health…and happiness. One paper published by a Duke University researcher in 2006 found that more than 40% of the actions people performed each day weren’t actual decisions, but habits….</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>When you dream up a new invention…it’s the outside parts of your brain at work. That’s where the most complex thinking occurs. Deeper inside the brain and closer to…where the brain meets the spinal column, are older, more primitive structures. They control our automatic behaviours, such as breathing and swallowing…Towards the centre of the skull is a golf ball-sized lump of tissue that is similar to what you might find inside the head of a fish, reptile or mammal. This is the basil ganglia…[Scientists have found that] basil ganglia was central to recalling patters and acting on them. The basal ganglia, in other words, stored habits even while the rest of the brain went to sleep.</em>” – <em>Charles Duhigg in ‘The Power of Habit: Why we do what we do in life &amp; business’ (2014) [square brackets are ours]</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Advances in science have now helped us understand how habits (or the “Habit Loop”) work in a three step framework. Sequentially, these are</span></em><strong><strong>\n</strong></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. <strong>A cue : </strong></span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this is a trigger (something you see, smell or hear) that transfers the brain into an automatic mode which determines which habit to use;</em></span></em><strong><strong>\n</strong></strong></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. <strong>A routine</strong></span></em>: <em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this is the heart of the habit and is typically a mental, emotional or physical routine; an<strong><strong>\n</strong></strong></em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. <strong>A reward</strong></span></em>: <em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>this helps the brain ascertain if this specific loop is worth remembering for the future.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Duhigg says that, <em>\"The cue and reward become neurologically intertwined until a sense of craving emerges\"</em>. For example, when I wake up on weekdays, I keep my running shoes kept close to the bed. That is my cue that I need to get some exercise. That cue triggers a routine of putting on my gym clothes, going down to the gym and working out. Throughout this process, I need a reward which keeps me going through the dark Mumbai mornings (accompanied by heavy rain from June-September). My reward is a peanut butter sandwich with jam layered on top for breakfast. My wife ensures that I won’t get the sandwich if I don’t go to the gym. That’s how my exercise habit loop works.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The nature of our habits influences our investment returns</strong>\nClearly, our habits will influence financial decisions. Whilst this phenomena is multi-layered, it is possible to understand the understand the simplest layer in 200 words.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">When we meet companies, the meeting often place in the promoter’s office itself (rather than in a meeting room). Most such offices have a TV and hence the promoter is exposed to cues emanating from the TV. Associated with these cues, are likely to be routines/habits for the promoter eg. he might be accustomed to calling up his broker after seeing the share price of a stock he holds surge or he might have got into the habit of calling his CEO when he hears newsflow about a competitor. At the end of these routine(s), there is a “reward” that the promoter has got accustomed to receiving eg. his broker giving him good news regarding his stock portfolio (reward = “wealth trip”) or his CEO giving him good news regarding how the competition is being pulverised (reward = “power trip”). Such routines – either cued by TV, email or social media – form a large part of the working lives of many decision makers we meet. Much of the remainder of their time is taken up by meetings (which itself becomes another habit). As a result, very little of the corporate lives of many senior decision makers is actually used for thinking &amp; contemplation.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A small minority of promoters have no TVs in their offices; many of these promoters also don’t seem to make active use of mobile phones. Such people arguably have more time to think &amp; read i.e. more time NOT spent spinning on a habit loop. Such promoters are often to able see their industry from unusual angles. Unsurprisingly, there is a strong correlation between such promoters and our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. To quote from ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016): <em>“’Most Indian companies tend to focus on short-term results and hence that makes them frequently do things that deviate away from their articulated strategy…these deviations take them away from the path they have to travel to achieve their long term goals…the willingness to resist the temptation of short-term ‘off strategy’ profits for long-term sustainable gain is not there in most leading companies,’ writes Rama Bijapurkar, a leading market strategy consultant…</em>\n<em>The typical promoter profiled in [“The Unusual Billionaires’] is patient and persevering, even bordering of the boring. He ignores short-term thrills based on flavour-of-the-month ideas. He consciously rejects aggressive forays into unrelated businesses…Such behaviour requires tremendous patience and a willingness to ignore the stock market’s proclamations regarding prevailing fads and fashions.” </em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Berger Paints, Marico and HDFC Bank are amongst the companies covered in detail in “The Unusual Billionaires.” It is, I think, safe to say that the habits of the people running these firms have contributed substantially to the success of the three firms.</span></em></p>\n&nbsp;\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=58d8fd2681&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Our Habits, as Much as Our Brains, Drive Investment Decisions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '737-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 05:28:54', '2019-10-23 05:28:54', '', 737, 'http://marcellus.in/737-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(787, 1, '2019-05-04 07:03:48', '2019-05-04 07:03:48', '', 'Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_newsletter_may_2019_r-compressed', '', '', '2019-05-04 07:03:48', '2019-05-04 07:03:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(788, 1, '2019-05-04 07:06:16', '2019-05-04 07:06:16', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n&nbsp;</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-04 07:06:16', '2019-05-04 07:06:16', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(790, 1, '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '<em>Published on: 5th May, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-    </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>  Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '5th-may-2019', '', '', '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=790', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(791, 1, '2019-05-05 18:45:46', '2019-05-05 18:45:46', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.      <strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\nInsightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<em>2.      </em><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\nOnce the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\nThe second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n3.      <strong>Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\nA brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.      Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\nThis FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.      </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\nTwin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.      Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 18:45:46', '2019-05-05 18:45:46', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(792, 1, '2019-05-05 18:49:26', '2019-05-05 18:49:26', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1.      <strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\nInsightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>2.      </em><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\nOnce the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\nThe second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3.      <strong>Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\nA brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>4.      Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\nThis FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>5.      </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\nTwin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>6.      Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 18:49:26', '2019-05-05 18:49:26', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(793, 1, '2019-05-05 18:57:11', '2019-05-05 18:57:11', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\n\r\nInsightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\n\r\nOnce the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\nThe second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>3.      <strong>Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\n\r\nA brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>4.      Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\nThis FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\n\r\nTwin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 18:57:11', '2019-05-05 18:57:11', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(795, 1, '2019-05-05 18:59:05', '2019-05-05 18:59:05', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\n\r\nInsightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\n\r\nOnce the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\nThe second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>  Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\n\r\nA brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>4.      Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\nThis FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\n\r\nTwin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 18:59:05', '2019-05-05 18:59:05', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(794, 1, '2019-05-05 18:58:18', '2019-05-05 18:58:18', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\n\r\nInsightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\n\r\nOnce the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\nThe second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>      <strong>Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\n\r\nA brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>4.      Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\nThis FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\n\r\nTwin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 18:58:18', '2019-05-05 18:58:18', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(796, 1, '2019-05-05 19:04:55', '2019-05-05 19:04:55', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>  Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 19:04:55', '2019-05-05 19:04:55', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(797, 1, '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-    </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>  Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '2019-05-05 19:06:19', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(813, 1, '2019-05-13 03:25:54', '2019-05-13 03:25:54', '<em>Published on: 5th May, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Vanguard’s ingenious tax saving, the truth about dentistry, the kidnapping industry, India’s middle income trap risk, radical transparency in salaries among co-workers and how social valuations drive educational choices.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d2a8a89b8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Zachary R. Mider, Annie Massa and Christopher Cannon\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6f2f7e818&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/</a>)\r\nVanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: <em>“…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”</em>\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? <em>“…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.</em>\r\n<em>Here’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””</em>\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how <em>“rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”</em>\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that <em>“Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.” </em>\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: <em>“The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  the Truth about Dentistry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ferris Jabr\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3858fa889b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/the-trouble-with-dentistry/586039/</a>)\r\nMillions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is <em>“…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.”</em> The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n<em>“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: <em>“Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”</em>\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne Diebel\r\nSource: The New York Review of Books (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=26befc8330&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/05/09/kidnapping-efficient-business/</a>)\r\nThis unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n<em>“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.</em>\r\n<em>As Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….</em>\r\n<em>Around 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi\'s top guys</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: ET Online\r\nSource: Economic Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a939816bf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/could-the-single-engine-driving-india-crash-yes-if-you-go-by-one-of-modis-top-guys/articleshow/69247983.cms</a>)\r\nIt was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister\'s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade - consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “<em>In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,\"</em>\r\n<em>“…The World Bank\'s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows. </em>\r\n<em>During the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055. </em>\r\n<em>Roy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India\'s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy. </em>\r\n<em>The risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime. </em>\r\n<em>…And it\'s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. \"India\'s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,\" it had warned. </em>\r\n<em>…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world\'s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world\'s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India\'s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest. </em>\r\n<em>A growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: \"A time will come when that will stop.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Dear school leavers, don\'t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Pratap Bhanu Mehta\r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb5e4b3e8b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/dear-school-leavers-5720017/</a> )\r\nIn his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emma Jacobs\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19756270ab&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VgC6kn</a> )\r\nThe iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. <em>“Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”</em>\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n<em>“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”</em>\r\n<em>….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?</em>\r\n<em>Social media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.</em>\r\n<em>In 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.</em>\r\n<em>One BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”</em>\r\n<em>…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n', '12th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '810-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-13 03:25:54', '2019-05-13 03:25:54', '', 810, 'http://marcellus.in/810-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(814, 1, '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '<em>Published on: 12th May, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Vanguard’s ingenious tax saving, the truth about dentistry, the kidnapping industry, India’s middle income trap risk, radical transparency in salaries among co-workers and how social valuations drive educational choices.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d2a8a89b8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Zachary R. Mider, Annie Massa and Christopher Cannon\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6f2f7e818&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/</a>)\r\nVanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: <em>“…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”</em>\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? <em>“…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.</em>\r\n<em>Here’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””</em>\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how <em>“rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”</em>\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that <em>“Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.” </em>\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: <em>“The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  the Truth about Dentistry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ferris Jabr\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3858fa889b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/the-trouble-with-dentistry/586039/</a>)\r\nMillions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is <em>“…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.”</em> The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n<em>“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: <em>“Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”</em>\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne Diebel\r\nSource: The New York Review of Books (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=26befc8330&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/05/09/kidnapping-efficient-business/</a>)\r\nThis unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n<em>“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.</em>\r\n<em>As Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….</em>\r\n<em>Around 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi\'s top guys</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: ET Online\r\nSource: Economic Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a939816bf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/could-the-single-engine-driving-india-crash-yes-if-you-go-by-one-of-modis-top-guys/articleshow/69247983.cms</a>)\r\nIt was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister\'s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade - consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “<em>In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,\"</em>\r\n<em>“…The World Bank\'s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows. </em>\r\n<em>During the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055. </em>\r\n<em>Roy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India\'s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy. </em>\r\n<em>The risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime. </em>\r\n<em>…And it\'s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. \"India\'s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,\" it had warned. </em>\r\n<em>…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world\'s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world\'s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India\'s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest. </em>\r\n<em>A growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: \"A time will come when that will stop.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Dear school leavers, don\'t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Pratap Bhanu Mehta\r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb5e4b3e8b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/dear-school-leavers-5720017/</a> )\r\nIn his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emma Jacobs\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19756270ab&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VgC6kn</a> )\r\nThe iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. <em>“Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”</em>\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n<em>“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”</em>\r\n<em>….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?</em>\r\n<em>Social media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.</em>\r\n<em>In 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.</em>\r\n<em>One BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”</em>\r\n<em>…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n', '12th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '810-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '', 810, 'http://marcellus.in/810-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(799, 1, '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '<em>Published on: 5th May, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on cognitive biases, the fall of the Venture Capitalist behemoth – Kleiner Perkins, Stiglitz’s progressive capitalism, how our gender stereotypes affect women’s role in politics, busting the myth around China’s Belt and Road Initiative and how avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85c7277029&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: You played yourself</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Morgan Housel\r\nSource: Collaborative Fund (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=100b58f001&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/you-played-yourself/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> <em>“The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”</em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong><em>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.””</em> So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? <em>“Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”</em>\r\n-    </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> <em>“Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…” </em>\r\n-   </span></em><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> <em>“Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.”</em> The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Polina Marinova\r\nSource: Fortune (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a84298ef84&amp;e=5648501957\">http://fortune.com/longform/kleiner-perkins-vc-fall/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. <em>““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. <em>“The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”</em>\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. <em>“Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”</em>\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. <em>“Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”</em>\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>  Long read: Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron</strong></span></span>\r\nAuthor: Joseph E. Stiglitz\r\nSource: NY Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92ebd5a70b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/19/opinion/sunday/progressive-capitalism.html</a>)</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it………………………</em> <em>As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.</em>\r\n<em>Most important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>     Short read: Political good girls are losing the battle</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne-Marie Slaughter\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=328b2afacb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.ft.com/content/fe6954ca-6690-11e9-b809-6f0d2f5705f6</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. <em>“Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. <em>“Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Mark Akpaninyie\r\nSource: The Diplomat (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=deee8fff6a&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy/</a>)\r\n<strong>Short read: The Belt and Road is about domestic interest groups, not development</strong>\r\nSource: Andrew Batson’s Blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db1a8734fb&amp;e=5648501957\">https://andrewbatson.com/2019/05/02/the-belt-and-road-is-about-domestic-interest-groups-not-development/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.</em>\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.</em>\r\n<em>The Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.</em>\r\n<em>In Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Farnam Street\r\nSource: Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=075d6c461f&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2014/06/avoiding-stupidity/</a>)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a></em>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '5th May 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '790-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '2019-05-05 19:07:20', '', 790, 'http://marcellus.in/790-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(800, 1, '2019-05-05 19:19:44', '2019-05-05 19:19:44', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em>Published on: 28th April, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-05 19:19:44', '2019-05-05 19:19:44', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(825, 1, '2019-05-23 07:33:36', '2019-05-23 07:33:36', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosoph\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Scheme Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1 Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only) Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) Quarterly\r\n2 Discretionary (Fixed &amp; Variable Fees) Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3 Discretionary (variable fees only) Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 25 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client.\r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client.\r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client).\r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 07:33:36', '2019-05-23 07:33:36', '', 749, 'http://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(806, 1, '2019-09-13 20:51:30', '2019-09-13 20:51:30', 'For millions of professionals, the tussle between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. Life does not have to be like that.\n\n“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why” ― Antoine Fuqua in the epitaph to his 2014 film, The Equalizer\n\n\"You are what your deep, driving desire is. As your desire is, so is your will. As your will is, so is your deed. As your deed is, so is your destiny.\" – The Upanishads\n\nThe tussle between “Should” and “Must”\nLast week on a flight from Delhi to Mumbai I saw the young lady in the seat next to mine settle down into her seat and then spend the next hour doing some high quality sketching on her tablet (with what looked like a high tech stylus). Then after the in-flight meal was out of the way, she opened up her laptop and started working on a conventional Powerpoint presentation for a large Indian corporate.\n\nI recognised the pattern in her behaviour. A decade ago, when I was her age, I used to write columns for magazines using the time allocation she was following – the first part of the flight was spent doing what I loved to do, what my creative instincts said I “must do”. Then once the meal was out of the way, I would switch to doing what I “should do” to earn a living and/or to meet societal expectations e.g. prepare research reports for institutional investors with deep pockets. In an echo of my formative years in consulting, the lady sitting next to me on the flight from Delhi too was a management consultant.\n\nFor millions of professionals like my neighbour on the flight, the tussle between “Should” and “Must”, between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. The American artist, Elle Luna, immortalised this internal battle in a celebrated blog published in 2014: https://medium.com/@elleluna/the-crossroads-of-should-and-must-90c75eb7c5b0\n\nHowever, it doesn’t have to be like that. It has taken me the best part of 20 years to understand that there is no tradeoff between what we should do and what we must do.\n\nIt is harder to excel if you are not doing what you “must” do\nWhat is original thinking? One way of understanding this is to ask yourself how do you gain knowledge these days? Generating new thoughts on your own isn’t easy. Our knowledge today is based on the expertise of others. Thanks to technology, new ideas are now disseminated rapidly and a large part of our waking hours is spent absorbing the latest ideas produced by others either for professional use (say, by attending professional courses or by subscribing to a trade website) or for personal use (say, by staying glued to Facebook or Whatsapp).\n\nIn a market like Mumbai, say, where there will be at least a hundred professional coders who can write algorithms which can spot money making opportunities in the stock market, if your algorithm can make even 3% more money than the typical cash-futures arbitrage algorithm used by other fund houses, you will become the hottest property in town. Every fund house will bend over backwards to hire you – they will use financial leverage to amplify the gains from your algorithm. The same would be true if you were an interior designer, a cricketer, a journalist or an civil engineer – in a highly competitive free market economy, even if your ideas are only marginally better than those of your peers, you will become hot property.\n\nOriginal thinking is therefore at the heart of professional success in the highly competitive economies in which we find ourselves in. And, regardless of your profession, if you want to be an original thinker you have to do what you “must do”, not what your parents or your social circles think you “should do”.\n\nThere is no tradeoff between “should” and “must”\n“Work is often seen as a means for making money so we can enjoy that second life we lead. Even if we derive some satisfaction from our careers, we still tend to compartmentalize our lives in this way. This is a depressing attitude, because in the end we spend a substantial part of our waking life at work. If we experience this time as something to get through on the way to real pleasure, then our hours at work represent a tragic waste of the short time we have to live. Instead you want to see your work as something more inspiring, as part of your vocation…Your work then is something deeply connected to who you are, not a separate compartment in your life. You develop then a sense of vocation.” – Robert Green in ‘Mastery’ (2012)\n\nIronically, it is not so much a question of following your heart over your heard. Once you realise that the tradeoff people talk about (eg. “you have to chose between a steady job and the financial security which comes with it versus the fluctuating fortunes of an entrepreneur”) is a false notion – you will neither have financial nor emotional security if you are in a job which you don’t enjoy – you are on your way to a happier and more successful career.\n\nFor most of us in Marcellus who have left the comfort of well-paid jobs in large firms, Marcellus is the coming together of what we “should do” to earn a living and what we “must do” to give vent to our desire to build the firm that we have dreamt of since we entered the world of work. Just because we are doing what we must do doesn’t mean we will succeed in our endeavour to create world class investment management firm but it does make the heavy workload more enjoyable and it injects into our lives just the right dose of desperation.\n\nIt was George Bernard Shaw who said who said that “The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” With your support, the unreasonable women &amp; men at Marcellus hope to make lots of progress.\n\n[Portions of this piece were first published on The Ken in a column written by my friend, Anupam Gupta, and myself.]\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\n\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\n\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Marcellus: The Tussle Between What we “Should do” & What we “Must do”', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '__trashed', '', '', '2019-10-31 12:50:54', '2019-10-31 12:50:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=resources&#038;p=806', 0, 'resources', '', 0),
(807, 1, '2019-05-10 18:59:24', '2019-05-10 18:59:24', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:10 May, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>For millions of professionals, the tussle between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. Life does not have to be like that.</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><u>“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why”</u></em> ― <em><strong>Antoine Fuqua</strong></em> in the epitaph to his 2014 film, The Equalizer</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>\"You are what your deep, driving desire is. As your desire is, so is your will. As your will is, so is your deed. As your deed is, so is your destiny.\" – </em><strong><em>The Upanishads</em></strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The tussle between “Should” and “Must”</strong>\r\nLast week on a flight from Delhi to Mumbai I saw the young lady in the seat next to mine settle down into her seat and then spend the next hour doing some high quality sketching on her tablet (with what looked like a high tech stylus). Then after the in-flight meal was out of the way, she opened up her laptop and started working on a conventional Powerpoint presentation for a large Indian corporate.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">I recognised the pattern in her behaviour. A decade ago, when I was her age, I used to write columns for magazines using the time allocation she was following – the first part of the flight was spent doing what I loved to do, what my creative instincts said I “must do”. Then once the meal was out of the way, I would switch to doing what I “should do” to earn a living and/or to meet societal expectations e.g. prepare research reports for institutional investors with deep pockets. In an echo of my formative years in consulting, the lady sitting next to me on the flight from Delhi too was a management consultant.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">For millions of professionals like my neighbour on the flight, the tussle between “Should” and “Must”, between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. The American artist, Elle Luna, immortalised this internal battle in a celebrated blog published in 2014: <a href=\"https://medium.com/@elleluna/the-crossroads-of-should-and-must-90c75eb7c5b0\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://medium.com/@elleluna/the-crossroads-of-should-and-must-90c75eb7c5b0</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, it doesn’t have to be like that. It has taken me the best part of 20 years to understand that there is no tradeoff between what we should do and what we must do.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>It is harder to excel if you are not doing what you “must” do</strong>\r\nWhat is original thinking? One way of understanding this is to ask yourself how do you gain knowledge these days? Generating new thoughts on your own isn’t easy. Our knowledge today is based on the expertise of others. Thanks to technology, new ideas are now disseminated rapidly and a large part of our waking hours is spent absorbing the latest ideas produced by others either for professional use (say, by attending professional courses or by subscribing to a trade website) or for personal use (say, by staying glued to Facebook or Whatsapp).</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In a market like Mumbai, say, where there will be at least a hundred professional coders who can write algorithms which can spot money making opportunities in the stock market, if your algorithm can make even 3% more money than the typical cash-futures arbitrage algorithm used by other fund houses, you will become the hottest property in town. Every fund house will bend over backwards to hire you – they will use financial leverage to amplify the gains from your algorithm. The same would be true if you were an interior designer, a cricketer, a journalist or an civil engineer – in a highly competitive free market economy, even if your ideas are only marginally better than those of your peers, you will become hot property.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Original thinking is therefore at the heart of professional success in the highly competitive economies in which we find ourselves in. And, regardless of your profession, if you want to be an original thinker you have to do what you “must do”, not what your parents or your social circles think you “should do”.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>There is no tradeoff between “should” and “must”</strong>\r\n<em>“Work is often seen as a means for making money so we can enjoy that second life we lead. Even if we derive some satisfaction from our careers, we still tend to compartmentalize our lives in this way. This is a depressing attitude, because in the end we spend a substantial part of our waking life at work. If we experience this time as something to get through on the way to real pleasure, then our hours at work represent a tragic waste of the short time we have to live. Instead you want to see your work as something more inspiring, as part of your vocation…Your work then is something deeply connected to who you are, not a separate compartment in your life. You develop then a sense of vocation.”</em> – Robert Green in ‘Mastery’ (2012)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ironically, it is not so much a question of following your heart over your heard. Once you realise that the tradeoff people talk about (eg. “you have to chose between a steady job and the financial security which comes with it versus the fluctuating fortunes of an entrepreneur”) is a false notion – you will neither have financial nor emotional security if you are in a job which you don’t enjoy – you are on your way to a happier <u>and</u> more successful career.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">For most of us in Marcellus who have left the comfort of well-paid jobs in large firms, Marcellus is the coming together of what we “should do” to earn a living and what we “must do” to give vent to our desire to build the firm that we have dreamt of since we entered the world of work. Just because we are doing what we must do doesn’t mean we will succeed in our endeavour to create world class investment management firm but it does make the heavy workload more enjoyable and it injects into our lives just the right dose of desperation.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It was George Bernard Shaw who said who said that <em>“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”</em> With your support, the unreasonable women &amp; men at Marcellus hope to make lots of progress.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">[Portions of this piece were first published on The Ken in a column written by my friend, Anupam Gupta, and myself.]</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n.</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Marcellus: The Tussle Between What we “Should do” & What we “Must do”', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-tussle-between-what-we-should-do-what-we-must-do', '', '', '2019-11-14 05:54:37', '2019-11-14 05:54:37', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=807', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(1986, 1, '2019-10-23 06:01:52', '2019-10-23 06:01:52', '<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:17 May, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pathbreaking work has at its core very hard work, often done in the midst of a well-defined schedule and usually done in solitude. Research shows that the greatest minds of the past three hundred years have used a surprisingly similar template to grind their way to success. </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I must have liked the long hours, for in later life, I never took the attitude of “I’ve worked hard all my childhood and youth and now I’m going to take it easy and sleep till noon.” Quite the contrary…I wake up at five in the morning. I get to work as early as I can. I work as long as I can. I do this every day in the week, including holidays. I don’t take vacations voluntarily and I try to do my work even when I’m on vacation.”</em> ― <em><strong>Isaac Asimov</strong></em><em> quoted in “Daily Rituals” by Mason Currey (2013)</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>[Marcellus is hiring Quant Data Analysts on an internship-basis. </strong><strong>See</strong></span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong><strong>]</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Habits drive 40% of our decision making</strong>\nA month ago on we wrote about how <em>“Even though habits account for 40% of the decisions that we make, the “thinking” part of the brain does NOT control our habits. Understanding the auto-reflex element of habit-driven decision making is central to nailing down why some promoters consistently allocate capital better than others.”</em> We then explained how many of us get into bad habits such as having the TV switched on in our offices or constantly checking emails and social media notifications. Click here for our 26<sup>th</sup> April piece:<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/</a></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In this piece we focus on how some of greatest minds of the post-Renaissance world constructed their working day so that their habits – by themselves – would become one of the foundations of their success. At the outset, we have to say that for those looking for short cut should not read this piece because as VS Pritchett said in 1941, <em>“Sooner or later, the great men turn out to be all alike. They never stop working. They never lose a minute. It is very depressing.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So other than working non-stop, what exactly do the legends do habitually which entrenches their greatness? In 2013 American journalist, Mason Currey, summarised the working habits of habits of nearly 200 great minds in an interesting an entertaining book called <em>“Daily Rituals: How Great Minds Make Time, Find Inspiration and Get to Work”.</em> Currey’s book (which itself draws from over 400 sources) and our reading of the biographies of other great minds give us a pretty good idea of the life one would has to lead to have a high probability of doing original, path-breaking work:</span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1.Reading</strong>: Reading extensively and almost non-stop seems to be a prerequisite for producing pathbreaking work. As Charlie Munger says, <em>“In my whole life, I have known no wise people…who didn’t read all the time – none, zero.” </em>In fact, a few painters apart, almost all the great minds seem to spend a large part of the day reading sometimes at the expense of maintaining a normal social life.</span></em></p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2.Intense, focused work in solitude:</strong> The vast majority of the legends whose lives are described in Currey’s book spent at least three hours each day (almost always immediately after breakfast) focused on intense, hard work. Most locked the doors of the studies, forbade anybody from disturbing them and sought peace and silence so that they could push themselves to the limit. Needless to say, they did not take phone calls or read emails or Whataspp during these hours of intense, focused work. For example, the architect Frank Lloyd Wright did all his design wo<em>rk “Between 4 and 7 o’clock in the morning…I go to sleep promptly when I go to bed. Then I wake up around 4 and can’t sleep. But my mind’s clear, so I get up and work for three or four hours.”</em></span></em></p>\n</li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In Ernest Hemingway’s words, <em>“When I am working on a book or story I write every morning as soon after first light as possible. There is no one to disturb you and it is cool or cold and you come to your work and warm as you write. You read what you have written and you always stop when you know what is going to happen next…You write until you come to a place when you still have your juice and you know what will happen next…You have started at six in the morning and you may go on until noon. When you stop you are as empty, and at the same time, never empty but filling…”</em></span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3.Rewarding oneself after working hard: </strong>Since one cannot work without a break and since even the legends need an incentive to push themselves through 3-4 hours of hard work, many of them not only take a break at around lunchtime, the ensure that that break contains something that they can look forward to. For example, Gustav Mahler, one of the leading music composers of the twentieth century, <em>“…worked until midday, then…walked down to the lake for a swim. Once he was in the water, he would whistle for his wife to join him on the beach. Mahler liked to lie in the sun until he was dry, then jump into the water again, often repeating this four or five times, which left him feeling invigorated and ready for lunch at home. The meal was, to Mahler’s preference light, simple, thoroughly cooked and minimally seasoned.”</em></span></em></p>\n</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>4.Seeking high quality input &amp; criticism: </strong>For many great minds, getting regular feedback from high quality critics, who were often friends or relatives, in often a part of the daily routine. This feedback improves the quality of their work, sharpened their focus and their thinking. For example, Jane Austen would read out her work-in-progress on a daily basis to her mother and her sister. The influential French novelist, Gustave Flaubert, would begin the day with a long, intimate chat with his mother. French author &amp; philosopher, Simone de Beauvoir’s daily routine hinged around her 50-year intellectual partnership with the philosopher, Jean-Paul Sartre. Each would spend the morning working alone. They would then meet for lunch and work together in the afternoon. Then, over dinner, they would critique each other’s work.</span></em></p>\n</li>\n</ol>\n<ol>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>5.A well-defined daily routine: </strong><em>“Routine, in an intelligent man, is the sign of ambition,”</em> wrote the English poet, WH Auden, in 1958. The vast majority of great minds have a clearly laid out routine which they followed day-after-day for the majority of their creative lives. Even artists such as Francis Bacon, who one would imagine led bohemian, unstructured lives, were creatures of habit &amp; routine. The Japanese author, Haruki Murakami for instance <em>“…wakes at 4AM and works for five to six hours straight. In the afternoon he runs or swims or does both, runs errands, reads and listens to music; bedtime is 9:00. “I keep to this routine every day without variation,” he told the Paris Review in 2004. “The repetition itself becomes the important thing; it’s a form of mesmerism. I mesmerize myself to reach a deeper state of mind.””</em></span></em></p>\n</li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Essentially, what the legends are doing is by forcing the majority of the quotidian decisions taken in a typical day (when to rise, when to eat, what to eat, etc) into a rigid template, they are freeing up mental processing power for higher value tasks.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Redesigning the way we work</strong>\nRealising that the way most open plan offices are organised is not conducive to high quality work, at Marcellus we have sought – within the constrains of our modest budget – to organise ourselves in a better manner. We have effectively segmented our team into three:</span></em></p>\n\n<ul>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our Operations &amp; Trading team sits in an open plan office which is a beehive of activity &amp; noise thanks to clients’ phone calls, our traders’ chats with our brokers, our Operations team’s chats with our custodians and fund accountants, etc.</span></em></p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our investment management staff sit in a smaller room which is very quiet (phones are on silent, noise cancelling headphones are used by some) unless a debate is taking place about the merits of a specific investment.</span></em></p>\n</li>\n 	<li>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our Salespeople are, as you would expect, never in the office unless they are pulled away from their client meetings for a weekly internal team meeting.</span></em></p>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even though we are less than a year old, we are trying to ensure that our staff don’t burn their brains &amp; bodies out in the typical start-up rush to grow big, fast. It is all very well to move fast and break things in Silicon Valley but when you have to undergo long commutes to &amp; from work through Mumbai’s pulverised roads, we have seen that people physically and mentally breakdown if you push them hard week after week.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As we grow, we are seeking to understand how to create a better working environment for our colleagues. If you have ideas, suggestions or if you have found interesting reading material on this subject, we would be grateful if you could share it with us.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=191cd4c338&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\n.</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'Marcellus: The Working Habits of Great Minds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '817-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 06:01:52', '2019-10-23 06:01:52', '', 817, 'http://marcellus.in/817-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(808, 1, '2019-11-14 05:48:23', '2019-11-14 05:48:23', '<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:10 May, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>For millions of professionals, the tussle between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. Life does not have to be like that.</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em><u>“The two most important days in your life are the day you are born and the day you find out why”</u></em> ― <em><strong>Antoine Fuqua</strong></em> in the epitaph to his 2014 film, The Equalizer</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>\"You are what your deep, driving desire is. As your desire is, so is your will. As your will is, so is your deed. As your deed is, so is your destiny.\" – </em><strong><em>The Upanishads</em></strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The tussle between “Should” and “Must”</strong>\nLast week on a flight from Delhi to Mumbai I saw the young lady in the seat next to mine settle down into her seat and then spend the next hour doing some high quality sketching on her tablet (with what looked like a high tech stylus). Then after the in-flight meal was out of the way, she opened up her laptop and started working on a conventional Powerpoint presentation for a large Indian corporate.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">I recognised the pattern in her behaviour. A decade ago, when I was her age, I used to write columns for magazines using the time allocation she was following – the first part of the flight was spent doing what I loved to do, what my creative instincts said I “must do”. Then once the meal was out of the way, I would switch to doing what I “should do” to earn a living and/or to meet societal expectations e.g. prepare research reports for institutional investors with deep pockets. In an echo of my formative years in consulting, the lady sitting next to me on the flight from Delhi too was a management consultant.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">For millions of professionals like my neighbour on the flight, the tussle between “Should” and “Must”, between what they feel they should do (because of financial or societal reasons) and what they must do (in order to fulfill deeply felt urges) is the defining tussle of their lives. The American artist, Elle Luna, immortalised this internal battle in a celebrated blog published in 2014: <a href=\"https://medium.com/@elleluna/the-crossroads-of-should-and-must-90c75eb7c5b0\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://medium.com/@elleluna/the-crossroads-of-should-and-must-90c75eb7c5b0</a></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, it doesn’t have to be like that. It has taken me the best part of 20 years to understand that there is no tradeoff between what we should do and what we must do.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>It is harder to excel if you are not doing what you “must” do</strong>\nWhat is original thinking? One way of understanding this is to ask yourself how do you gain knowledge these days? Generating new thoughts on your own isn’t easy. Our knowledge today is based on the expertise of others. Thanks to technology, new ideas are now disseminated rapidly and a large part of our waking hours is spent absorbing the latest ideas produced by others either for professional use (say, by attending professional courses or by subscribing to a trade website) or for personal use (say, by staying glued to Facebook or Whatsapp).</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In a market like Mumbai, say, where there will be at least a hundred professional coders who can write algorithms which can spot money making opportunities in the stock market, if your algorithm can make even 3% more money than the typical cash-futures arbitrage algorithm used by other fund houses, you will become the hottest property in town. Every fund house will bend over backwards to hire you – they will use financial leverage to amplify the gains from your algorithm. The same would be true if you were an interior designer, a cricketer, a journalist or an civil engineer – in a highly competitive free market economy, even if your ideas are only marginally better than those of your peers, you will become hot property.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Original thinking is therefore at the heart of professional success in the highly competitive economies in which we find ourselves in. And, regardless of your profession, if you want to be an original thinker you have to do what you “must do”, not what your parents or your social circles think you “should do”.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>There is no tradeoff between “should” and “must”</strong>\n<em>“Work is often seen as a means for making money so we can enjoy that second life we lead. Even if we derive some satisfaction from our careers, we still tend to compartmentalize our lives in this way. This is a depressing attitude, because in the end we spend a substantial part of our waking life at work. If we experience this time as something to get through on the way to real pleasure, then our hours at work represent a tragic waste of the short time we have to live. Instead you want to see your work as something more inspiring, as part of your vocation…Your work then is something deeply connected to who you are, not a separate compartment in your life. You develop then a sense of vocation.”</em> – Robert Green in ‘Mastery’ (2012)</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ironically, it is not so much a question of following your heart over your heard. Once you realise that the tradeoff people talk about (eg. “you have to chose between a steady job and the financial security which comes with it versus the fluctuating fortunes of an entrepreneur”) is a false notion – you will neither have financial nor emotional security if you are in a job which you don’t enjoy – you are on your way to a happier <u>and</u> more successful career.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">For most of us in Marcellus who have left the comfort of well-paid jobs in large firms, Marcellus is the coming together of what we “should do” to earn a living and what we “must do” to give vent to our desire to build the firm that we have dreamt of since we entered the world of work. Just because we are doing what we must do doesn’t mean we will succeed in our endeavour to create world class investment management firm but it does make the heavy workload more enjoyable and it injects into our lives just the right dose of desperation.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It was George Bernard Shaw who said who said that <em>“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable man persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”</em> With your support, the unreasonable women &amp; men at Marcellus hope to make lots of progress.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">[Portions of this piece were first published on The Ken in a column written by my friend, Anupam Gupta, and myself.]</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\n.</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'Marcellus: The Tussle Between What we “Should do” & What we “Must do”', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '807-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-14 05:48:23', '2019-11-14 05:48:23', '', 807, 'http://marcellus.in/807-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(810, 1, '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '<em>Published on: 12th May, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Vanguard’s ingenious tax saving, the truth about dentistry, the kidnapping industry, India’s middle income trap risk, radical transparency in salaries among co-workers and how social valuations drive educational choices.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d2a8a89b8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Zachary R. Mider, Annie Massa and Christopher Cannon\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6f2f7e818&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/</a>)\r\nVanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: <em>“…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”</em>\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? <em>“…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.</em>\r\n<em>Here’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””</em>\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how <em>“rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”</em>\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that <em>“Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.” </em>\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: <em>“The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  the Truth about Dentistry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ferris Jabr\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3858fa889b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/the-trouble-with-dentistry/586039/</a>)\r\nMillions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is <em>“…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.”</em> The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n<em>“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: <em>“Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”</em>\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne Diebel\r\nSource: The New York Review of Books (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=26befc8330&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/05/09/kidnapping-efficient-business/</a>)\r\nThis unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n<em>“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.</em>\r\n<em>As Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….</em>\r\n<em>Around 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi\'s top guys</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: ET Online\r\nSource: Economic Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a939816bf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/could-the-single-engine-driving-india-crash-yes-if-you-go-by-one-of-modis-top-guys/articleshow/69247983.cms</a>)\r\nIt was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister\'s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade - consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “<em>In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,\"</em>\r\n<em>“…The World Bank\'s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows. </em>\r\n<em>During the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055. </em>\r\n<em>Roy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India\'s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy. </em>\r\n<em>The risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime. </em>\r\n<em>…And it\'s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. \"India\'s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,\" it had warned. </em>\r\n<em>…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world\'s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world\'s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India\'s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest. </em>\r\n<em>A growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: \"A time will come when that will stop.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Dear school leavers, don\'t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Pratap Bhanu Mehta\r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb5e4b3e8b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/dear-school-leavers-5720017/</a> )\r\nIn his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emma Jacobs\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19756270ab&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VgC6kn</a> )\r\nThe iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. <em>“Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”</em>\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n<em>“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”</em>\r\n<em>….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?</em>\r\n<em>Social media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.</em>\r\n<em>In 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.</em>\r\n<em>One BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”</em>\r\n<em>…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n', '12th May 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '810-2', '', '', '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '2019-05-13 03:26:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=810', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(811, 1, '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>This week’s reads focus on Vanguard’s ingenious tax saving, the truth about dentistry, the kidnapping industry, India’s middle income trap risk, radical transparency in salaries among co-workers and how social valuations drive educational choices.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4d2a8a89b8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds</strong></span>\r\nAuthors: Zachary R. Mider, Annie Massa and Christopher Cannon\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6f2f7e818&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-vanguard-mutual-fund-tax-dodge/</a>)\r\nVanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: <em>“…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”</em>\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? <em>“…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.</em>\r\n<em>Here’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””</em>\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how <em>“rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”</em>\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that <em>“Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.” </em>\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: <em>“The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read:  the Truth about Dentistry</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Ferris Jabr\r\nSource: The Atlantic (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3858fa889b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/05/the-trouble-with-dentistry/586039/</a>)\r\nMillions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is <em>“…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.”</em> The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n<em>“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: <em>“Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”</em>\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.\r\n\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business </strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Anne Diebel\r\nSource: The New York Review of Books (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=26befc8330&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/05/09/kidnapping-efficient-business/</a>)\r\nThis unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n<em>“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.</em>\r\n<em>As Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….</em>\r\n<em>Around 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi\'s top guys</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: ET Online\r\nSource: Economic Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1a939816bf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/could-the-single-engine-driving-india-crash-yes-if-you-go-by-one-of-modis-top-guys/articleshow/69247983.cms</a>)\r\nIt was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister\'s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade - consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “<em>In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,\"</em>\r\n<em>“…The World Bank\'s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows. </em>\r\n<em>During the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055. </em>\r\n<em>Roy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India\'s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy. </em>\r\n<em>The risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime. </em>\r\n<em>…And it\'s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. \"India\'s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,\" it had warned. </em>\r\n<em>…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world\'s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world\'s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India\'s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest. </em>\r\n<em>A growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: \"A time will come when that will stop.\" </em>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: Dear school leavers, don\'t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Pratap Bhanu Mehta\r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb5e4b3e8b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/dear-school-leavers-5720017/</a> )\r\nIn his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off</strong></span>\r\nAuthor: Emma Jacobs\r\nSource: Financial Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=19756270ab&amp;e=5648501957\">https://on.ft.com/2VgC6kn</a> )\r\nThe iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. <em>“Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”</em>\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n<em>“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”</em>\r\n<em>….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?</em>\r\n<em>Social media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.</em>\r\n<em>In 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.</em>\r\n<em>One BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”</em>\r\n<em>…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '810-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '2019-05-13 03:24:25', '', 810, 'http://marcellus.in/810-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(817, 1, '2019-05-17 14:47:59', '2019-05-17 14:47:59', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:17 May, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Pathbreaking work has at its core very hard work, often done in the midst of a well-defined schedule and usually done in solitude. Research shows that the greatest minds of the past three hundred years have used a surprisingly similar template to grind their way to success. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“I must have liked the long hours, for in later life, I never took the attitude of “I’ve worked hard all my childhood and youth and now I’m going to take it easy and sleep till noon.” Quite the contrary…I wake up at five in the morning. I get to work as early as I can. I work as long as I can. I do this every day in the week, including holidays. I don’t take vacations voluntarily and I try to do my work even when I’m on vacation.”</em> ― <em><strong>Isaac Asimov</strong></em><em> quoted in “Daily Rituals” by Mason Currey (2013)</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>[Marcellus is hiring Quant Data Analysts on an internship-basis. </strong><strong>See</strong></span> <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a></strong><strong>]</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Habits drive 40% of our decision making</strong>\r\nA month ago on we wrote about how <em>“Even though habits account for 40% of the decisions that we make, the “thinking” part of the brain does NOT control our habits. Understanding the auto-reflex element of habit-driven decision making is central to nailing down why some promoters consistently allocate capital better than others.”</em> We then explained how many of us get into bad habits such as having the TV switched on in our offices or constantly checking emails and social media notifications. Click here for our 26<sup>th</sup> April piece:<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In this piece we focus on how some of greatest minds of the post-Renaissance world constructed their working day so that their habits – by themselves – would become one of the foundations of their success. At the outset, we have to say that for those looking for short cut should not read this piece because as VS Pritchett said in 1941, <em>“Sooner or later, the great men turn out to be all alike. They never stop working. They never lose a minute. It is very depressing.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So other than working non-stop, what exactly do the legends do habitually which entrenches their greatness? In 2013 American journalist, Mason Currey, summarised the working habits of habits of nearly 200 great minds in an interesting an entertaining book called <em>“Daily Rituals: How Great Minds Make Time, Find Inspiration and Get to Work”.</em> Currey’s book (which itself draws from over 400 sources) and our reading of the biographies of other great minds give us a pretty good idea of the life one would has to lead to have a high probability of doing original, path-breaking work:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1.Reading</strong>: Reading extensively and almost non-stop seems to be a prerequisite for producing pathbreaking work. As Charlie Munger says, <em>“In my whole life, I have known no wise people…who didn’t read all the time – none, zero.” </em>In fact, a few painters apart, almost all the great minds seem to spend a large part of the day reading sometimes at the expense of maintaining a normal social life.</span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2.Intense, focused work in solitude:</strong> The vast majority of the legends whose lives are described in Currey’s book spent at least three hours each day (almost always immediately after breakfast) focused on intense, hard work. Most locked the doors of the studies, forbade anybody from disturbing them and sought peace and silence so that they could push themselves to the limit. Needless to say, they did not take phone calls or read emails or Whataspp during these hours of intense, focused work. For example, the architect Frank Lloyd Wright did all his design wo<em>rk “Between 4 and 7 o’clock in the morning…I go to sleep promptly when I go to bed. Then I wake up around 4 and can’t sleep. But my mind’s clear, so I get up and work for three or four hours.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In Ernest Hemingway’s words, <em>“When I am working on a book or story I write every morning as soon after first light as possible. There is no one to disturb you and it is cool or cold and you come to your work and warm as you write. You read what you have written and you always stop when you know what is going to happen next…You write until you come to a place when you still have your juice and you know what will happen next…You have started at six in the morning and you may go on until noon. When you stop you are as empty, and at the same time, never empty but filling…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3.Rewarding oneself after working hard: </strong>Since one cannot work without a break and since even the legends need an incentive to push themselves through 3-4 hours of hard work, many of them not only take a break at around lunchtime, the ensure that that break contains something that they can look forward to. For example, Gustav Mahler, one of the leading music composers of the twentieth century, <em>“…worked until midday, then…walked down to the lake for a swim. Once he was in the water, he would whistle for his wife to join him on the beach. Mahler liked to lie in the sun until he was dry, then jump into the water again, often repeating this four or five times, which left him feeling invigorated and ready for lunch at home. The meal was, to Mahler’s preference light, simple, thoroughly cooked and minimally seasoned.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>4.Seeking high quality input &amp; criticism: </strong>For many great minds, getting regular feedback from high quality critics, who were often friends or relatives, in often a part of the daily routine. This feedback improves the quality of their work, sharpened their focus and their thinking. For example, Jane Austen would read out her work-in-progress on a daily basis to her mother and her sister. The influential French novelist, Gustave Flaubert, would begin the day with a long, intimate chat with his mother. French author &amp; philosopher, Simone de Beauvoir’s daily routine hinged around her 50-year intellectual partnership with the philosopher, Jean-Paul Sartre. Each would spend the morning working alone. They would then meet for lunch and work together in the afternoon. Then, over dinner, they would critique each other’s work.</span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>5.A well-defined daily routine: </strong><em>“Routine, in an intelligent man, is the sign of ambition,”</em> wrote the English poet, WH Auden, in 1958. The vast majority of great minds have a clearly laid out routine which they followed day-after-day for the majority of their creative lives. Even artists such as Francis Bacon, who one would imagine led bohemian, unstructured lives, were creatures of habit &amp; routine. The Japanese author, Haruki Murakami for instance <em>“…wakes at 4AM and works for five to six hours straight. In the afternoon he runs or swims or does both, runs errands, reads and listens to music; bedtime is 9:00. “I keep to this routine every day without variation,” he told the Paris Review in 2004. “The repetition itself becomes the important thing; it’s a form of mesmerism. I mesmerize myself to reach a deeper state of mind.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Essentially, what the legends are doing is by forcing the majority of the quotidian decisions taken in a typical day (when to rise, when to eat, what to eat, etc) into a rigid template, they are freeing up mental processing power for higher value tasks.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Redesigning the way we work</strong>\r\nRealising that the way most open plan offices are organised is not conducive to high quality work, at Marcellus we have sought – within the constrains of our modest budget – to organise ourselves in a better manner. We have effectively segmented our team into three:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our Operations &amp; Trading team sits in an open plan office which is a beehive of activity &amp; noise thanks to clients’ phone calls, our traders’ chats with our brokers, our Operations team’s chats with our custodians and fund accountants, etc.</span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our investment management staff sit in a smaller room which is very quiet (phones are on silent, noise cancelling headphones are used by some) unless a debate is taking place about the merits of a specific investment.</span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Our Salespeople are, as you would expect, never in the office unless they are pulled away from their client meetings for a weekly internal team meeting.</span></em></p>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Even though we are less than a year old, we are trying to ensure that our staff don’t burn their brains &amp; bodies out in the typical start-up rush to grow big, fast. It is all very well to move fast and break things in Silicon Valley but when you have to undergo long commutes to &amp; from work through Mumbai’s pulverised roads, we have seen that people physically and mentally breakdown if you push them hard week after week.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As we grow, we are seeking to understand how to create a better working environment for our colleagues. If you have ideas, suggestions or if you have found interesting reading material on this subject, we would be grateful if you could share it with us.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></span></em></p>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n.</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Marcellus: The Working Habits of Great Minds', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds', '', '', '2019-11-14 06:00:45', '2019-11-14 06:00:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=817', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(815, 1, '2019-05-15 20:01:59', '2019-05-15 20:01:59', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is seeking to hire </span><strong style=\"color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Quantitative Data Analysts on a six-month internship </strong><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">for its Investment Management &amp; Research function. Along with advanced level proficiency in MS Excel, the candidate MUST also have hands on experience in building, managing and manipulating <strong>structured / unstructured datasets</strong>, and conducting <strong>quantitative analyses</strong> using statistical tools and programming languages such as <strong>SAS or Python</strong>. Candidates / students of <strong>CA or CFA (USA) Level 2+</strong> would be preferred. </span></span></em>\r\n\r\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Applicants should, along with their CV, send a <strong>1-pager process brief on how would they organise and crunch publicly available data of a listed company for investment decision-making, </strong>which should reach <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 23rd of July 2019.</span></em>', 'Quant Analysts on Internship Basis', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', 'quant-analysts-on-internship-basis', '', '', '2019-10-18 11:09:31', '2019-10-18 11:09:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=815', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
(816, 1, '2019-05-15 20:08:06', '2019-05-15 20:08:06', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers is seeking to hire </span><strong style=\"color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Quantitative Data Analysts on a six-month internship </strong><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">for its Investment Management &amp; Research function. Along with advanced level proficiency in MS Excel, the candidate MUST also have hands on experience in building, managing and manipulating structured / unstructured datasets, and conducting <strong>quantitative analyses</strong> using statistical tools and programming languages such as <strong>SAS or Python</strong>. Candidates / students of <strong>CA or CFA (USA) Level 2+</strong> would be preferred. </span></span></em>\n\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Applicants should, along with their CV, send a <strong>1-pager process brief on how would they organise and crunch publicly available data of a listed company for investment decision-making, which should reach </strong><a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">research@marcellus.in</a> by 5pm on 23rd of May 2019.</span></em>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nMarcellus Investment Managers is seeking to hire <strong>Quantitative Data Analysts on a six-month internship</strong> for its Investment Management &amp; Research function. Along with advanced level proficiency in MS Excel, candidates must also have hands on experience in building, managing and manipulating <strong>structured / unstructured datasets,</strong> and conducting <strong>quantitative analyses</strong> using statistical tools and programming languages such as <strong>SAS or Python</strong>. Candidates / students of a <strong>CA or CFA (USA) Level 2+</strong> would be preferred.\n\nApplicants should, along with their CV, send a <strong>1-pager process brief on how would they organise and crunch publicly available data of a listed company for investment decision making </strong>which should reach research@marcellus.in by 5pm on <strong>23th May 2019</strong>.', 'Quant Analysts on Internship Basis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '815-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-05-15 20:08:06', '2019-05-15 20:08:06', '', 815, 'http://marcellus.in/815-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(830, 1, '2019-05-23 10:45:22', '2019-05-23 10:45:22', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 10:45:22', '2019-05-23 10:45:22', '', 15, 'http://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(831, 1, '2019-05-23 10:56:49', '2019-05-23 10:56:49', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 10:56:49', '2019-05-23 10:56:49', '', 15, 'http://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(832, 1, '2019-10-30 09:23:46', '2019-10-30 09:23:46', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\n<h2></h2>\n&nbsp;\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\nAt <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Marcellus</a>, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\n<ul>\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\n</ul>\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\n\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 09:23:46', '2019-10-30 09:23:46', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(833, 1, '2019-05-23 10:59:06', '2019-05-23 10:59:06', '<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-23 10:59:06', '2019-05-23 10:59:06', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(861, 1, '2019-10-23 04:38:21', '2019-10-23 04:38:21', '<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"600\">\n<table width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>There are around 25 dominant franchises in the BSE500. Most of them have been created by “Unusual Billionaires – promoters or CEOs who saw their sectors through a very different lens than everybody else and then proceeded to flip the competitive paradigm to create an enduring competitive advantage.  </strong><em>“…And they shared an interesting set of personal characteristics in addition to some of the specific business actions they took. So they were, as a group, humble and frugal by nature. And sort of patient and pragmatic, in terms of their mindset. They were not overly charismatic, and they were not active seekers of the limelight. They did not speak at Davos. So Buffett is far and away the best known. Many of the other CEOs are virtually unknown today.” </em><strong>– William Thorndike, author of “The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success” </strong>(2012) (Source:<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2014/04/how-unusual-ceos-drive-value\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://hbr.org/2014/04/how-unusual-ceos-drive-value</a>\n<strong>The book and the film raise interesting issues</strong>\nLast week we released a short film explaining how yours truly ended up writing the “The Unusual Billionaires”. The film contained short interviews studded with nuggets of wisdom from two of thehttp://marcellus.in/book-list/, Harsh Mariwala (Chairman, Marico) and Kuldip Singh Dhingra (Chairman, Berger Paints). Click here to watch the film: <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&feature=youtu.be\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&feature=youtu.be</a>\n\nReflecting on his decision to let professional executives run Berger Paints from Kolkata whilst the Dhingra family maintained oversight from Delhi, Mr Dhingra says in the film that <em>“the only sustainable way [to build a great firm] is to make it some kind of institution so that there is continuity and the [promoter] family can reap the benefit…it is a price to pay for sustainability. It was not a choice to tell you the truth.”</em> In a similar vein, Mr Mariwala explains in the film why in 2014 he did that rare thing for an Indian promoter – stepped down as Managing Director and made way for a professional executive, Saugata Gupta, now MD &amp; CEO of Marico.  [Square brackets are our insertions.]\n\n<strong>Thinking differently (from the herd) is difficult</strong>\nUntil we stumbled upon William Thorndike’s “The Outsiders” in 2013, we used to think of outstanding franchises in terms of the standard business school paradigm of competitive advantages. Thorndike’s book, which lit the creative spark for “The Unusual Billionaires”, gave us another perspective with which to understand great franchises. That perspective was the personality of the promoter.\n\nIf you dig a little deeper at the businesses which feature in both of my recent books – The Unusual Billionaires (2016) and Coffee Can Investing (2018) – you will see that most of them are dominant franchises almost verging on monopolies. In fact, these dominant franchises can be classified into two buckets:\n\n·  Franchises whose monopolies are predicated on rules &amp; regulations which help them erect invisible barriers to entry. These are often the most powerful, the most lucrative monopolies.\n\n·  The remaining dominant franchises are created due to a promoter/CEO viewing the competitive paradigm very differently from everyone else in the sector and then proceeding to flip the competitive paradigm in his favour. This aspect of the Unusual Billionaires continues to fascinate us. Let us illustrate with a couple of examples.\n\nUntil the 1960s, paint was sold just like a normal FMCG product i.e. from the factory the product would go to the wholesaler, then the distributor and finally to the dealer. In the late 1960s, Champaklal Choksey, the dominant founder-promoter of Asian Paints until his death in 1997, turned this paradigm on its head.\n\nMr Choksey got rid of the wholesalers and the distributors of Asian Paints and started selling direct to the firms 50,000 dealers. The remarkable distribution network that Asian Paints built in the late 1960s means that even today, paint is a unique sector in four different ways: (1) Paint is the only sector in India where the product goes straight from the manufacturer to the dealer; (2) Paint is the only sector where the dealer’s shop is replenished multiple times in the same day; (3) Paint is the only sector where the manufacturer (Asian Paints) earns 97% of the retail price of the product [in all other products the channel accounts for 30-40% of the retail price]; (4) Asian Paints’ distribution logistics are still unmatched. So, whilst HUL, India’s largest FMCG company, has 7000 distributors to whom it delivers once a week, Asian Paints delivers to nearly 50,000 dealers four times a day!\n\nBehind this remarkable network architected by Champaklal Choksey, is 50 years of proprietary data on paint demand for each neighbourhood in India, for every hour of the day, for every day of the year. That allows Asian Paints to forecast your paint demand just like Amazon can second guess what you will buy when you visit their website next. Asian Paints’ proprietary data, its forecasting ability and its distribution network give it a working capital cycle of 8 days. Nobody else in the paint sector comes remotely close to Asian Paints on this metric. As a result, Asian Paints ROCE (usually at around 30%) and free cash flows are head and shoulders above its rivals. Over the past 20 years only one other paint company in India has been able to keep up with Asian Paints and we own that as well in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio.\n\nWhat Mr Choksey did to paints, Aditya Puri did to private sector banking in India. When HDFC’s Chairman, Deepak Parekh, hired him from Citi in Malaysia, Mr Puri started life in HDFC Bank in 1994 much as Citibankers usually do – extend corporate loans and keep NPAs low. Then as banking IT systems evolved in the late 1990s and as a common core banking solution operating across the entire HDFC Bank network came within his grasp, Mr Puri did the paradigm flip and started building HDFC Bank’s Current &amp; Savings Accounts (CASA) machine. He realised that if HDFC Bank could hoover up corporates’ current accounts and affluent individuals’ savings accounts at modest cost (around 4%) the bank could access funds which were not just low cost but also stable. Once this was achieved, HDFC Bank could focus on lending to the safest segments of the economy at 8-9% and still clock a Net Interest Margin significantly in excess of 4% points. Only one other bank in India has metrics comparable to HDFC Bank and we own that as well in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio.\n\nAs with Asian Paints, a good plan, an ingenuous strategic insight is one thing – relentless execution of that plan marks out both Asian Paints and HDFC Bank. For decades, both firms have stuck to a relatively simple script and built their market leading franchises.\n\n<strong>How can we make it easier for ourselves to think differently? </strong>\n<em>“The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of ‘positive deviants’ in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as everyone else but stubbornly refuse to allow themselves to be constrained by conventional wisdoms, and as a consequence are able to identify fresh and often counter-traditional ways to address seemingly intractable problems. In business, I believe that there will always be positive deviants, brands that are exceptional, not because they are able to run harder or faster than the rest, but because at some fundamental level they have made a commitment to not taking the status quo for granted.”</em> – <strong>Youngme Moon in ‘Different: Escaping the Competitive Herd’</strong> (2010)\n\nWhy is it that a small minority of business leaders are able to see the world through a very different lens? Re-reading The Outsiders and The Unusual Billionaires points to three factors:\n\n1.    Most of us are social creatures who feel the need to belong to a larger group; thanks to millions of years spent in the jungle, we feel safer if we are part of a larger tribe. That instinct makes us hug consensus opinion and mainstream culture. The makes it harder for us see the world differently. Basically, thanks to evolutionary forces, our genetic wiring makes us see the world through the same lenses as everyone else. An Unusual Billionaire is therefore, more likely than not, to be an Outsider, an <strong>independent, iconoclastic thinker</strong>.\n\n2.    Even if we have the vision to see things differently, it takes a few more dollops of courage to go forth <strong>and execute relentlessly on this differentiated vision</strong>. Not only is their the fear of ridicule if we fail, there is also the small problem of not having anyone to turn to for advice when you run into a problem. After all, if you are the first person on the surface of the moon, you can’t call up a 0800 number and report a faulty oxygen tank!  An Unusual Billionaire therefore needs to view risks very differently from the rest of us.\n\n3.    Not only does an unusual billionaire have to have the courage to traverse the path less trodden and the patience to relentlessly execute, the Unusual Billionaire also has to demonstrate what William Thorndike calls <em>“<strong>crocodile-like temperament </strong>that mixes patience with occasional bold action” </em>i.e. stay still for as long as possible and then move rapidly &amp; decisively.\n\nThorndike summarised the unique characteristics of the Outsiders/Unusual Billionaires nicely in the HBR interview which is referenced right at the beginning of this note. At the core of exceptional businesses are exceptional men &amp; women. Meeting them and learning from them makes working in Marcellus the world’s most interesting job.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.   </em>\n\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.    </em>\n\n&nbsp;</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'Marcellus: “Unusual Billionaires” Flip the Competitive Paradigm', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '859-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 04:38:21', '2019-10-23 04:38:21', '', 859, 'http://marcellus.in/859-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1455, 1, '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', 'Author: Jaweed Kaleem\r\nSource: LA Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5f2890fb93&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-col1-sikh-truckers-20190627-htmlstory.html</a>)\r\nIn contrast to the preceding piece from the New York Times, the LA Times brings you a story about Indian immigrants to America who have created a more niche, and arguably more sustainable type of restaurant business focusing on Sikh truckers who haul heavy loads across America’s interstate highways.\r\n<em>“There are 3.5 million truckers in the United States. California has 138,000, the second-most after Texas. Nearly half of those in California are immigrants, most from Mexico or Central America. But as drivers age toward retirement — the average American trucker is 55 — and a shortage grows, Sikh immigrants and their kids are increasingly taking up the job.</em>\r\n<em>Estimates of the number of Sikh truckers vary. In California alone, tens of thousands of truckers trace their heritage to India. The state is home to half of the Sikhs in the U.S….At Sikh temples in Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield and Riverside, the majority of worshipers are truck drivers and their families.</em>\r\n<em>Over the last decade, Indian Americans have launched trucking schools, truck companies, truck washes, trucker temples and no-frills Indian restaurants modeled after truck stops back home, where Sikhs from the state of Punjab dominate the industry.”</em>\r\nSikh owned restaurants catering to Sikh truck drivers is creating a neat, self-sustaining ecosystem in Trump’s America: <em>“Three interstates — the I-5, I-80 and I-10 — are dotted with Indian-American-owned businesses catering to truckers. They start to appear as you drive east from Los Angeles, Reno and Phoenix, and often have the words “Bombay,” “Indian” or “Punjabi” on their storefront signs….The best-known are along Interstate 40, which stretches from Barstow to North Carolina. The road, much of it alongside Historic Route 66, forms the backbone of the Sikh trucking world.”</em>\r\nSikh truck drivers themselves are evidence of economic agents responding to supply-demand mismatches: <em>“In recent years, corporations have pleaded for new truckers. Walmart kicked up salaries to attract drivers. Last year, the government announced a pilot program to lower the age for driving trucks from 21 to 18 for those with truck-driving training in the military. According to the American Trucking Assn., the trucker shortage could reach 100,000 within years.</em>\r\n<em>“Punjabis are filling the gap,” says Raman Dhillon, a former driver who last year founded the North American Punjabi Trucking Assn. The Fresno-based group advises drivers on regulations, offers insurance and tire discounts, and runs a magazine: Punjabi Trucking.”</em>\r\nThe LA Times’ Jaweed Kaleem has done a superb job of describing the world of industrious blue collar immigrants to America who get on with their lives instead of worrying about politics, trade wars, interest rates, etc.', 'Sikh drivers are transforming U.S. trucking. Take a ride along the Punjabi American highway', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sikh-drivers-are-transforming-u-s-trucking-take-a-ride-along-the-punjabi-american-highway', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1455', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1456, 1, '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', 'Author: Jaweed Kaleem\r\nSource: LA Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5f2890fb93&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-col1-sikh-truckers-20190627-htmlstory.html</a>)\r\nIn contrast to the preceding piece from the New York Times, the LA Times brings you a story about Indian immigrants to America who have created a more niche, and arguably more sustainable type of restaurant business focusing on Sikh truckers who haul heavy loads across America’s interstate highways.\r\n<em>“There are 3.5 million truckers in the United States. California has 138,000, the second-most after Texas. Nearly half of those in California are immigrants, most from Mexico or Central America. But as drivers age toward retirement — the average American trucker is 55 — and a shortage grows, Sikh immigrants and their kids are increasingly taking up the job.</em>\r\n<em>Estimates of the number of Sikh truckers vary. In California alone, tens of thousands of truckers trace their heritage to India. The state is home to half of the Sikhs in the U.S….At Sikh temples in Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield and Riverside, the majority of worshipers are truck drivers and their families.</em>\r\n<em>Over the last decade, Indian Americans have launched trucking schools, truck companies, truck washes, trucker temples and no-frills Indian restaurants modeled after truck stops back home, where Sikhs from the state of Punjab dominate the industry.”</em>\r\nSikh owned restaurants catering to Sikh truck drivers is creating a neat, self-sustaining ecosystem in Trump’s America: <em>“Three interstates — the I-5, I-80 and I-10 — are dotted with Indian-American-owned businesses catering to truckers. They start to appear as you drive east from Los Angeles, Reno and Phoenix, and often have the words “Bombay,” “Indian” or “Punjabi” on their storefront signs….The best-known are along Interstate 40, which stretches from Barstow to North Carolina. The road, much of it alongside Historic Route 66, forms the backbone of the Sikh trucking world.”</em>\r\nSikh truck drivers themselves are evidence of economic agents responding to supply-demand mismatches: <em>“In recent years, corporations have pleaded for new truckers. Walmart kicked up salaries to attract drivers. Last year, the government announced a pilot program to lower the age for driving trucks from 21 to 18 for those with truck-driving training in the military. According to the American Trucking Assn., the trucker shortage could reach 100,000 within years.</em>\r\n<em>“Punjabis are filling the gap,” says Raman Dhillon, a former driver who last year founded the North American Punjabi Trucking Assn. The Fresno-based group advises drivers on regulations, offers insurance and tire discounts, and runs a magazine: Punjabi Trucking.”</em>\r\nThe LA Times’ Jaweed Kaleem has done a superb job of describing the world of industrious blue collar immigrants to America who get on with their lives instead of worrying about politics, trade wars, interest rates, etc.', 'Sikh drivers are transforming U.S. trucking. Take a ride along the Punjabi American highway', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1455-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '2019-07-07 08:04:42', '', 1455, 'http://marcellus.in/1455-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1457, 1, '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', 'Author: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5611ec715c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/costco-membership-economics</a>)\r\nCEOs and management teams of companies are typically expected to focus on maximising shareholder value.  Here’s a company whose investors have always complained for putting its customers and employees ahead of its shareholders and yet achieved greatness and delivered shareholder value - Costco, the American brick &amp; mortar retail company. Today when most brick &amp; mortar retail companies are struggling due to the onslaught unleashed by e-commerce companies, Costco is witnessing steady growth. This piece in The Hustle summarises how Costco built its empire by flying in the face of traditional wisdom:\r\n<em>“On first impression, Costco makes no sense. It is a place where you can buy, in the course of one trip, a 27-pound bucket of mac and cheese, a patio table, a wedding dress, a casket, a handle of gin, a tank of gas, a passport photo, a sheepskin rug, a chicken coop, prescription medications, life insurance, a $1.50 hotdog, and a  $250,000 diamond ring. Items sit on wooden pallets in dark, unmarked aisles. Brand selection is limited. And you pay a $60 annual membership fee just to get in the door.</em>\r\n<em>The end goal: To cut the “fat” out of traditional retail and pass on the savings to loyal customers and employees. This philosophy often anguishes Costco’s shareholders — but it has also earned the company a cult following around the world. At a time when brick-and-mortar retail is crumbling at the feet of e-commerce, Costco has experienced steady growth. How did this nondescript chain of warehouses find success?</em>\r\n<em><u>1. It refuses to boost markups: </u></em><em>“If [saving the customer money] doesn’t turn you on,” Sinegal, who retired as CEO in 2012, once said, “then you’re in the wrong business.” Surely enough, Costco’s immense buying power allows it to finagle deep discount deals with vendors, and the savings are always passed down to its shoppers. Costco has stated in the past that it caps its markups at 14% for brand-name items, and 15% for its in-house Kirkland brands — even wine, which is notorious for its 200% to 300% markups elsewhere. But according to the company’s 2018 annual report, the average item in the store is only marked up 11%, compared to the 25%-50% often seen in retail. That means that if Costco pays $100 wholesale for, say, a pound of Wagyu beef, it sells it to you for a mere $111. Because Costco buys in such large volumes, its purchase price is often lower than other retailers to begin with; add in the company’s reduced markups, and you’ve got yourself a much cheaper piece of meat. In fact, Costco’s prices are so low that it barely breaks even on its merchandise sales. So, how does Costco make its money?</em>\r\n<em><u>2. It charges people to enter its stores: </u></em><em> Costco’s members gladly pay annual fees ($60 for “Gold Star” and $120 for “Executive”) because they believe that having access to the chain’s economies of scale and bulk quantities justifies the upfront cost. As of 2018, 51,600,000 people pay Costco membership fees, good for $3.14B in annual revenue. More impressively, the renewal rate is a whopping 90%....</em>\r\n<em><u>3. It stocks massive volumes of few products:</u></em><em> Prevailing retail wisdom tells us that excess choice is good — that shoppers want to walk down the chip aisle and be able to pick from 100 varieties and brands. Costco, on the other hand, acts as a bulk curator for its customers. The average warehouse stocks just 3,700 SKUs at any given time, less than 1/10th of most supermarkets’ 40,000 to 50,000 items, and not much more than the average corner store. Often, Costco provides only one or two brands in a given category……</em>\r\n<em><u>4. It reengineers products to be cheaper: </u></em><em>Because Costco stocks limited inventory in massive amounts, it is extremely fickle about the vendors it chooses to work with. When Costco comes across a product it likes, it often spends months working closely with the vendor and its factories to both reduce the price of an item and amp up its quality…</em>\r\n<em><u>5. It realizes the economic incentive for treating employees well: </u></em><em>Retail workers are among America’s lowest-paid employees, earning an average of around $10 per hour. They rarely get full benefits, and their employers view them as expendable (turnover rates are as high as 65%). But Costco realizes that it is more cost effective to retain happy employees and — brace yourself — actually pay them a livable wage, than it is to churn and burn. The average pay among its 245,000 workers (143,000 full-time, 102,000 part-time) works out to $21 per hour, double the national retail average and nearly 2x Walmart’s going rate. Moreover, 88% of Costco workers receive company-sponsored health insurance…..[leading to higher retention which reduces hiring and training costs and increases worker productivity].</em>\r\n<em><u>6. It values its customers over its shareholders: </u></em><em>CEOs of public companies often blame unpopular decisions — price hikes, layoffs, cutting corners — on their “responsibility to maximize shareholder value.” In the last 30 years, the percentage of corporate profits going to stockholders has increased from 50% to 86%, resulting in fewer deals for customers and less money for employees. This investor-first mentality has, in many ways, harmed American industry. Since the day Costco went public in December of 1985, investors have complained that the company has been “too generous” with its customers and employees. They’ve called for higher markups on goods, steeper prices, and reduced benefits for workers.</em>\r\n<em>But Costco has always insisted that their policies aren’t just altruistic — they’re good for business: By sticking to their principles, stock has gone up 387% since 2000. “On Wall Street, they’re in the business of making money between now and next Thursday,” Sinegal told the New York Times in 2005. “We can’t take that view. We want to build a company that will still be here 50 years from now.” In other words, about twice as long as the shelf life on its 27-pound tubs of mac and cheese.</em>', 'How Costco gained a cult following — by breaking every rule of retail', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-costco-gained-a-cult-following-by-breaking-every-rule-of-retail', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1457', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(840, 1, '2019-05-24 15:27:00', '2019-05-24 15:27:00', '', 'blog marcelus', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blog-marcelus', '', '', '2019-05-24 15:27:00', '2019-05-24 15:27:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/blog-marcelus.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(841, 1, '2019-05-24 15:43:10', '2019-05-24 15:43:10', '<table class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlockOuter\">\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\"><strong>Inspite of the origins of meditation in the East, it is Western investors who are highlighting to a sceptical world the significant benefits that meditation confers upon practitioners whose day jobs are highly stressful. </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“I am so busy today that…I am going to meditate for two hours instead of one.”</em> ― <strong><em>Mahatma Gandhi</em></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Meditation: definitions &amp; origins</strong>\r\nMeditation is a practice where an individual trains her attention to achieve a clear, calm and stable state-of-mind. The Dalai Lama believes that meditation and prayer have similar benefits. However, my reading of the subject suggests that there are two differences between meditation and prayer. Firstly, meditation is, in general, a more advanced form of concentrating and focusing the mind than prayer. Secondly, whilst prayer has as its focus either a god or a deity, meditation – especially in its more advanced forms – cam be about completely blanking out the mind.\r\n\r\nThe recorded origins of meditation are usually traced to the Chinese and Indian civilisations although it also appears highly likely that people elsewhere in the ancient world had also clocked onto the benefits of this simple but powerful practice. As John Selby says in “Seven Masters, One Path: Meditation Secrets from the World\'s Greatest Teachers” (2003):\r\n<em>“Several thousands of years ago, among the…the Taoist culture of ancient China, the judging, analytical thinking mind was already correctly identified as the perpetrator not only of our particularly human blessings in life, but also of our particularly human curses. They understood clearly that…we humans have gained vast powers to think logically, reflect upon past experiences, and manipulate the world to our advantage. However, because thinking is a past-future function of the mind, we have tended to lose touch with the vital experience of participating spontaneously in the present moment. </em>\r\n<em>Meditation aims to resolve this “lost in thought” dilemma as we temporarily distance ourselves from the constant barrage of thoughts from our inner virtual reality, and shift into a deeper consciousness. By learning to calmly watch thoughts flowing through our minds without being attached to those thoughts, we liberate ourselves from chronic identification with our ego’s limited notion of what life is all about…In the Taoist tradition, when we quiet our thoughts in meditation, we let go of trying to manipulate the world based on our inner fantasies of how things should be.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>What are the work-related benefits of meditation?</strong>\r\nOne legendary investor, Ray Dalio, and another highly successful albeit lesser known investor, Jason Voss, have written extensively about how meditation has helped them become better investors (Dalio in his book “Principles” (2016) and Voss in his book “The Intuitive Investor” (2010). When I bumped into Jason last year and asked him how meditation had helped him, he pointed me towards John Selby’s excellent book which is referenced above. What follows in this section is a summary of what I have learnt from these three books and from my chats with Jason Voss. The benefits of meditation - going from the most basic to the most advanced - appear to be:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stress relief and recovery from difficult experiences</strong>: This is the most commonly cited benefit of meditation. Normally, mental and physical stress causes increased levels of cortisol (also called the primary stress hormone). Cortisol in turn promotes depression and anxiety and disrupts sleep. Scientific studies show that meditation reduces stress and cortisone. Effectively, meditation has the opposite effect - on the body &amp; the mind – as an adrenaline rush (which increases your heart rate, elevates your blood pressure and boosts energy levels). As a result, meditation plays a dual role of not only providing relief from a stressful experience but also helping in the rejuvenation &amp; recovery process (via lower cortisol, less anxiety and better sleep).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Clarity of thought and greater focus</strong>: Uncluttering our mind so that we can think more clearly, even if we are facing time pressure and/or financial pressure, is clearly a valuable skill to have. Psychologists are increasingly of the view that one of the best ways to regulate your body and your emotions is through meditation. In fact, research shows that meditation not only improves your health, it also strengthens your mental muscle especially your ability to focus and concentrate. A brain imaging study by Massachusetts General Hospital found physical changes in the brain after an eight-week meditation course. Researchers identified increased activity in parts of the brain associated with learning, memory, self-awareness, compassion, and introspection as well as decreased activity in the amygdala.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Higher level thinking and creative ideas</strong>: According to Jason Voss meditation allows you<em>“access to creativity, intuition and wealth manifestation. Exploration of this topic opens up an entirely new world, one rich with skills for making you richer.”</em> In other words, by subduing your ego and your sense of self, meditation allows more creative thoughts to bubble up to the forefront of your mind. To quote from Ray Dalio’s book ‘Principles’, <em>“I also came to understand that while some subconscious parts of our brains are dangerously animalistic, other are smarter and quicker than our conscious minds. Our greatest moments of inspiration often “pop” up from our subconscious. We experience these creative breakthroughs when we are relaxed and not trying to access the part of the brain in which they reside, which is generally the neocortex. When you say, “I just thought of something”, you noticed your subconscious mind telling your consciousness mind something.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Greater ability to work co-operatively: </strong>Regardless of how talented we might be, successful professional endeavor almost always involve working in collaboration with other people. Unfortunately, our education system and the general ethos of capitalism focuses on our identity as individuals. That in turn inhibits the extent to which we are voluntarily willing to collaborate with others. Life, especially in the Financial Services profession, seems to hinge around chasing greater pay &amp; perks. Meditation helps you to de-emphasise your own role and what rewards you will get from your efforts. That in turn makes it easier for you to work with others for their benefit. Ironically, that is a far more efficient way to move forward in the world rather than barging forward Gordon “Greed is Good” Gekko style (see ‘Wall Street’ (1987)).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>So how does one meditate in the midst of a packed schedule? </strong>\r\nThe <strong>beginner’s format</strong> for meditation simply focuses on using a basic technique to either distract or relax your conscious mind (where your ego resides).  Here is my basic technique to meditate on flights and car journeys – I close my eyes and count backwards from 100 to zero whilst trying to visualise each number as I call the number out in your mind. The reverse counting is a way of distracting my ego and thus letting the mind enter a more relaxed mode. Practising this technique on a daily basis for even ten minutes allows you to gain control of your mind to such an extent that soon you will be able to meditate at a time and a place of your choosing.\r\n\r\nThe more <strong>advanced formats</strong> involves concentrating in one or more long sessions (of an hour or more) each day. This often involves chanting as the technique being used to distract the egoic mind. The effort then is to focus the mind on the mantra that you are chanting and hold that focus for very long periods of time. It is hard to do but Dalio and Voss swear by these advanced meditation techniques and the way these techniques have helped them become better investors and better human beings.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.   </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved    </em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Marcellus: Can Meditation Help Us at Work?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-can-meditation-help-us-at-work', '', '', '2019-11-18 05:08:32', '2019-11-18 05:08:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=841', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1671, 1, '2019-09-16 11:22:01', '2019-09-16 11:22:01', '<div class=\"container\">sfdfdf</div>', 'Thank you', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1667-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-16 11:22:01', '2019-09-16 11:22:01', '', 1667, 'http://marcellus.in/1667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(843, 1, '2019-05-25 12:20:52', '2019-05-25 12:20:52', '', 'A short film explaining the evolution of our investment philosophy.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-short-film-explaining-the-evolution-of-our-investment-philosophy', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:24:23', '2019-12-03 05:24:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=843', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
(844, 1, '2019-05-25 12:23:03', '2019-05-25 12:23:03', '<img class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-835\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_videoupload-300x194.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"194\" />', 'A short film explaining the evolution of our investment philosophy.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '843-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:23:03', '2019-05-25 12:23:03', '', 843, 'http://marcellus.in/843-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2566, 1, '2019-12-03 05:24:53', '2019-12-03 05:24:53', '', 'Polls-have-no-long-term-bearing-on-stock-markete-Saurabh-Mukherjea', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'polls-have-no-long-term-bearing-on-stock-markete-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:24:53', '2019-12-03 05:24:53', '', 821, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Polls-have-no-long-term-bearing-on-stock-markete-Saurabh-Mukherjea.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(846, 1, '2019-05-25 12:34:34', '2019-05-25 12:34:34', '', 'Video Title', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'video-title', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:34:34', '2019-05-25 12:34:34', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(845, 1, '2019-05-25 12:31:16', '2019-05-25 12:31:16', '<h2><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_videoupload.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"http://marcellus.in/media-coverage/ noopener\"><img class=\"wp-image-835 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_videoupload-300x194.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"452\" /></a></h2>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:31:16', '2019-05-25 12:31:16', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(849, 1, '2019-05-25 12:40:15', '2019-05-25 12:40:15', '<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"501\" height=\"283\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:40:15', '2019-05-25 12:40:15', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(847, 1, '2019-05-25 12:35:39', '2019-05-25 12:35:39', '[caption id=\"attachment_846\" align=\"alignnone\" width=\"1203\"]<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"wp-image-846 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title.jpg\" alt=\"Watch the Video\" width=\"1203\" height=\"618\" /></a> Watch the Video[/caption]\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:35:39', '2019-05-25 12:35:39', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(848, 1, '2019-05-25 12:39:17', '2019-05-25 12:39:17', '', 'Video Title', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'video-title-2', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:39:17', '2019-05-25 12:39:17', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(850, 1, '2019-05-25 12:41:23', '2019-05-25 12:41:23', '<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"339\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:41:23', '2019-05-25 12:41:23', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(851, 1, '2019-05-25 12:41:57', '2019-05-25 12:41:57', '<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:41:57', '2019-05-25 12:41:57', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(852, 1, '2019-05-25 12:44:06', '2019-05-25 12:44:06', 'Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:44:06', '2019-05-25 12:44:06', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(853, 1, '2019-05-25 12:44:42', '2019-05-25 12:44:42', 'Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy\r\n\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:44:42', '2019-05-25 12:44:42', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(854, 1, '2019-05-25 12:45:09', '2019-05-25 12:45:09', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:45:09', '2019-05-25 12:45:09', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(855, 1, '2019-05-25 12:45:38', '2019-05-25 12:45:38', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'About Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-05-25 12:45:38', '2019-05-25 12:45:38', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(856, 1, '2019-05-27 06:02:40', '2019-05-27 06:02:40', '', 'rakshit ranjan', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rakshit-ranjan-2', '', '', '2019-05-27 06:02:40', '2019-05-27 06:02:40', '', 152, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/rakshit-ranjan.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1458, 1, '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', 'Author: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5611ec715c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/costco-membership-economics</a>)\r\nCEOs and management teams of companies are typically expected to focus on maximising shareholder value.  Here’s a company whose investors have always complained for putting its customers and employees ahead of its shareholders and yet achieved greatness and delivered shareholder value - Costco, the American brick &amp; mortar retail company. Today when most brick &amp; mortar retail companies are struggling due to the onslaught unleashed by e-commerce companies, Costco is witnessing steady growth. This piece in The Hustle summarises how Costco built its empire by flying in the face of traditional wisdom:\r\n<em>“On first impression, Costco makes no sense. It is a place where you can buy, in the course of one trip, a 27-pound bucket of mac and cheese, a patio table, a wedding dress, a casket, a handle of gin, a tank of gas, a passport photo, a sheepskin rug, a chicken coop, prescription medications, life insurance, a $1.50 hotdog, and a  $250,000 diamond ring. Items sit on wooden pallets in dark, unmarked aisles. Brand selection is limited. And you pay a $60 annual membership fee just to get in the door.</em>\r\n<em>The end goal: To cut the “fat” out of traditional retail and pass on the savings to loyal customers and employees. This philosophy often anguishes Costco’s shareholders — but it has also earned the company a cult following around the world. At a time when brick-and-mortar retail is crumbling at the feet of e-commerce, Costco has experienced steady growth. How did this nondescript chain of warehouses find success?</em>\r\n<em><u>1. It refuses to boost markups: </u></em><em>“If [saving the customer money] doesn’t turn you on,” Sinegal, who retired as CEO in 2012, once said, “then you’re in the wrong business.” Surely enough, Costco’s immense buying power allows it to finagle deep discount deals with vendors, and the savings are always passed down to its shoppers. Costco has stated in the past that it caps its markups at 14% for brand-name items, and 15% for its in-house Kirkland brands — even wine, which is notorious for its 200% to 300% markups elsewhere. But according to the company’s 2018 annual report, the average item in the store is only marked up 11%, compared to the 25%-50% often seen in retail. That means that if Costco pays $100 wholesale for, say, a pound of Wagyu beef, it sells it to you for a mere $111. Because Costco buys in such large volumes, its purchase price is often lower than other retailers to begin with; add in the company’s reduced markups, and you’ve got yourself a much cheaper piece of meat. In fact, Costco’s prices are so low that it barely breaks even on its merchandise sales. So, how does Costco make its money?</em>\r\n<em><u>2. It charges people to enter its stores: </u></em><em> Costco’s members gladly pay annual fees ($60 for “Gold Star” and $120 for “Executive”) because they believe that having access to the chain’s economies of scale and bulk quantities justifies the upfront cost. As of 2018, 51,600,000 people pay Costco membership fees, good for $3.14B in annual revenue. More impressively, the renewal rate is a whopping 90%....</em>\r\n<em><u>3. It stocks massive volumes of few products:</u></em><em> Prevailing retail wisdom tells us that excess choice is good — that shoppers want to walk down the chip aisle and be able to pick from 100 varieties and brands. Costco, on the other hand, acts as a bulk curator for its customers. The average warehouse stocks just 3,700 SKUs at any given time, less than 1/10th of most supermarkets’ 40,000 to 50,000 items, and not much more than the average corner store. Often, Costco provides only one or two brands in a given category……</em>\r\n<em><u>4. It reengineers products to be cheaper: </u></em><em>Because Costco stocks limited inventory in massive amounts, it is extremely fickle about the vendors it chooses to work with. When Costco comes across a product it likes, it often spends months working closely with the vendor and its factories to both reduce the price of an item and amp up its quality…</em>\r\n<em><u>5. It realizes the economic incentive for treating employees well: </u></em><em>Retail workers are among America’s lowest-paid employees, earning an average of around $10 per hour. They rarely get full benefits, and their employers view them as expendable (turnover rates are as high as 65%). But Costco realizes that it is more cost effective to retain happy employees and — brace yourself — actually pay them a livable wage, than it is to churn and burn. The average pay among its 245,000 workers (143,000 full-time, 102,000 part-time) works out to $21 per hour, double the national retail average and nearly 2x Walmart’s going rate. Moreover, 88% of Costco workers receive company-sponsored health insurance…..[leading to higher retention which reduces hiring and training costs and increases worker productivity].</em>\r\n<em><u>6. It values its customers over its shareholders: </u></em><em>CEOs of public companies often blame unpopular decisions — price hikes, layoffs, cutting corners — on their “responsibility to maximize shareholder value.” In the last 30 years, the percentage of corporate profits going to stockholders has increased from 50% to 86%, resulting in fewer deals for customers and less money for employees. This investor-first mentality has, in many ways, harmed American industry. Since the day Costco went public in December of 1985, investors have complained that the company has been “too generous” with its customers and employees. They’ve called for higher markups on goods, steeper prices, and reduced benefits for workers.</em>\r\n<em>But Costco has always insisted that their policies aren’t just altruistic — they’re good for business: By sticking to their principles, stock has gone up 387% since 2000. “On Wall Street, they’re in the business of making money between now and next Thursday,” Sinegal told the New York Times in 2005. “We can’t take that view. We want to build a company that will still be here 50 years from now.” In other words, about twice as long as the shelf life on its 27-pound tubs of mac and cheese.</em>', 'How Costco gained a cult following — by breaking every rule of retail', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1457-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '2019-07-07 08:06:14', '', 1457, 'http://marcellus.in/1457-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1459, 1, '2019-07-07 08:07:02', '2019-07-07 08:07:02', 'Author: Nick Maggiulli\r\nSource: Of Dollars and Data (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6f504fcfa&amp;e=5648501957\">https://ofdollarsanddata.com/should-you-take-the-annuity-or-the-lump-sum/</a>)\r\nIn the book Coffee Can Investing, co-authored by our colleagues Saurabh Mukherjea and Rakshit Ranjan, they highlight the gross under-provision for retirement amongst middle class Indian families, not just because of the sub-optimal asset allocation (often skewed towards real estate) but exacerbated by rising life expectancy i.e, the very real possibility that people could outlive or outspend their savings. In a country with no meaningful social security, this is likely to be an endemic challenge. <em>“…as William Sharpe, the Nobel Laureate, notes, retirement is the “nastiest, hardest problem in finance.”…...With the multiple layers of uncertainty (inflation, life expectancy, returns, and lifestyle choices) the problem is not solvable in the strict sense” </em>says Nick Maggiulli of Ritholtz Wealth Management in this piece as he discusses one such relevant dilemma which many people face as they approach their retirement age: “Lump Sum vs. Annuity decision”. Whilst he acknowledges there is no one-size fits all solution, he does provide a framework to resolve the dilemma based on one’s specific circumstances.\r\n<em>At some point in our life we will have to choose between two options - 1) Lump Sum: Receive $XXX today of qualified money, or 2) Annuity: Receive $XX a month for life starting X years from today (this is when you would reach age 60-62)</em>\r\n<em>On the face of it the problem might look simple with a simple solution – find the present value of the future payout and compare it with the lumpsum amount. But if you consider various other variables in the equation (like inflation, life expectancy, spending rate, returns etc), the problem becomes challenging. </em>\r\n<em>The risk you take in both situations are:</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>With the Lump Sum there is the risk of outliving your money either due to long life or subpar investment returns. </em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>With the Annuity there is the risk of dying before retirement age and the risk of seeing your income lose its purchasing power due to inflation</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>There is no one single correct answer and it all depends what risk do you want to take.</em>', 'Should You Take the Annunity or the Lump Sum?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'should-you-take-the-annunity-or-the-lump-sum', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:07:15', '2019-07-07 08:07:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1459', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(888, 1, '2019-06-10 03:27:07', '2019-06-10 03:27:07', '', 'Capture', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'capture', '', '', '2019-06-10 03:27:07', '2019-06-10 03:27:07', '', 152, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Capture.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(859, 1, '2019-06-01 06:06:36', '2019-06-01 06:06:36', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td width=\"600\">\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>There are around 25 dominant franchises in the BSE500. Most of them have been created by “Unusual Billionaires – promoters or CEOs who saw their sectors through a very different lens than everybody else and then proceeded to flip the competitive paradigm to create an enduring competitive advantage.  </strong><em>“…And they shared an interesting set of personal characteristics in addition to some of the specific business actions they took. So they were, as a group, humble and frugal by nature. And sort of patient and pragmatic, in terms of their mindset. They were not overly charismatic, and they were not active seekers of the limelight. They did not speak at Davos. So Buffett is far and away the best known. Many of the other CEOs are virtually unknown today.” </em><strong>– William Thorndike, author of “The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success” </strong>(2012) (Source:<a href=\"https://hbr.org/2014/04/how-unusual-ceos-drive-value\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://hbr.org/2014/04/how-unusual-ceos-drive-value</a>\r\n<strong>The book and the film raise interesting issues</strong>\r\nLast week we released a short film explaining how yours truly ended up writing the “The Unusual Billionaires”. The film contained short interviews studded with nuggets of wisdom from two of <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/book-list/\">The Unusual Billionaires</a>, Harsh Mariwala (Chairman, Marico) and Kuldip Singh Dhingra (Chairman, Berger Paints). Click here to watch the film: <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature</a>\r\nReflecting on his decision to let professional executives run Berger Paints from Kolkata whilst the Dhingra family maintained oversight from Delhi, Mr Dhingra says in the film that <em>“the only sustainable way [to build a great firm] is to make it some kind of institution so that there is continuity and the [promoter] family can reap the benefit…it is a price to pay for sustainability. It was not a choice to tell you the truth.”</em> In a similar vein, Mr Mariwala explains in the film why in 2014 he did that rare thing for an Indian promoter – stepped down as Managing Director and made way for a professional executive, Saugata Gupta, now MD &amp; CEO of Marico.  [Square brackets are our insertions.]<strong>Thinking differently (from the herd) is difficult</strong>\r\nUntil we stumbled upon William Thorndike’s “The Outsiders” in 2013, we used to think of outstanding franchises in terms of the standard business school paradigm of competitive advantages. Thorndike’s book, which lit the creative spark for “The Unusual Billionaires”, gave us another perspective with which to understand great franchises. That perspective was the personality of the promoter.If you dig a little deeper at the businesses which feature in both of my recent books – The Unusual Billionaires (2016) and Coffee Can Investing (2018) – you will see that most of them are dominant franchises almost verging on monopolies. In fact, these dominant franchises can be classified into two buckets:\r\n\r\n·  Franchises whose monopolies are predicated on rules &amp; regulations which help them erect invisible barriers to entry. These are often the most powerful, the most lucrative monopolies.\r\n\r\n·  The remaining dominant franchises are created due to a promoter/CEO viewing the competitive paradigm very differently from everyone else in the sector and then proceeding to flip the competitive paradigm in his favour. This aspect of the Unusual Billionaires continues to fascinate us. Let us illustrate with a couple of examples.\r\n\r\nUntil the 1960s, paint was sold just like a normal FMCG product i.e. from the factory the product would go to the wholesaler, then the distributor and finally to the dealer. In the late 1960s, Champaklal Choksey, the dominant founder-promoter of Asian Paints until his death in 1997, turned this paradigm on its head.\r\n\r\nMr Choksey got rid of the wholesalers and the distributors of Asian Paints and started selling direct to the firms 50,000 dealers. The remarkable distribution network that Asian Paints built in the late 1960s means that even today, paint is a unique sector in four different ways: (1) Paint is the only sector in India where the product goes straight from the manufacturer to the dealer; (2) Paint is the only sector where the dealer’s shop is replenished multiple times in the same day; (3) Paint is the only sector where the manufacturer (Asian Paints) earns 97% of the retail price of the product [in all other products the channel accounts for 30-40% of the retail price]; (4) Asian Paints’ distribution logistics are still unmatched. So, whilst HUL, India’s largest FMCG company, has 7000 distributors to whom it delivers once a week, Asian Paints delivers to nearly 50,000 dealers four times a day!\r\n\r\nBehind this remarkable network architected by Champaklal Choksey, is 50 years of proprietary data on paint demand for each neighbourhood in India, for every hour of the day, for every day of the year. That allows Asian Paints to forecast your paint demand just like Amazon can second guess what you will buy when you visit their website next. Asian Paints’ proprietary data, its forecasting ability and its distribution network give it a working capital cycle of 8 days. Nobody else in the paint sector comes remotely close to Asian Paints on this metric. As a result, Asian Paints ROCE (usually at around 30%) and free cash flows are head and shoulders above its rivals. Over the past 20 years only one other paint company in India has been able to keep up with Asian Paints and we own that as well in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio.\r\n\r\nWhat Mr Choksey did to paints, Aditya Puri did to private sector banking in India. When HDFC’s Chairman, Deepak Parekh, hired him from Citi in Malaysia, Mr Puri started life in HDFC Bank in 1994 much as Citibankers usually do – extend corporate loans and keep NPAs low. Then as banking IT systems evolved in the late 1990s and as a common core banking solution operating across the entire HDFC Bank network came within his grasp, Mr Puri did the paradigm flip and started building HDFC Bank’s Current &amp; Savings Accounts (CASA) machine. He realised that if HDFC Bank could hoover up corporates’ current accounts and affluent individuals’ savings accounts at modest cost (around 4%) the bank could access funds which were not just low cost but also stable. Once this was achieved, HDFC Bank could focus on lending to the safest segments of the economy at 8-9% and still clock a Net Interest Margin significantly in excess of 4% points. Only one other bank in India has metrics comparable to HDFC Bank and we own that as well in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio.\r\n\r\nAs with Asian Paints, a good plan, an ingenuous strategic insight is one thing – relentless execution of that plan marks out both Asian Paints and HDFC Bank. For decades, both firms have stuck to a relatively simple script and built their market leading franchises.\r\n\r\n<strong>How can we make it easier for ourselves to think differently? </strong>\r\n<em>“The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of ‘positive deviants’ in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as everyone else but stubbornly refuse to allow themselves to be constrained by conventional wisdoms, and as a consequence are able to identify fresh and often counter-traditional ways to address seemingly intractable problems. In business, I believe that there will always be positive deviants, brands that are exceptional, not because they are able to run harder or faster than the rest, but because at some fundamental level they have made a commitment to not taking the status quo for granted.”</em> – <strong>Youngme Moon in ‘Different: Escaping the Competitive Herd’</strong> (2010)\r\n\r\nWhy is it that a small minority of business leaders are able to see the world through a very different lens? Re-reading The Outsiders and The Unusual Billionaires points to three factors:\r\n\r\n1.    Most of us are social creatures who feel the need to belong to a larger group; thanks to millions of years spent in the jungle, we feel safer if we are part of a larger tribe. That instinct makes us hug consensus opinion and mainstream culture. The makes it harder for us see the world differently. Basically, thanks to evolutionary forces, our genetic wiring makes us see the world through the same lenses as everyone else. An Unusual Billionaire is therefore, more likely than not, to be an Outsider, an <strong>independent, iconoclastic thinker</strong>.\r\n\r\n2.    Even if we have the vision to see things differently, it takes a few more dollops of courage to go forth <strong>and execute relentlessly on this differentiated vision</strong>. Not only is their the fear of ridicule if we fail, there is also the small problem of not having anyone to turn to for advice when you run into a problem. After all, if you are the first person on the surface of the moon, you can’t call up a 0800 number and report a faulty oxygen tank!  An Unusual Billionaire therefore needs to view risks very differently from the rest of us.\r\n\r\n3.    Not only does an unusual billionaire have to have the courage to traverse the path less trodden and the patience to relentlessly execute, the Unusual Billionaire also has to demonstrate what William Thorndike calls <em>“<strong>crocodile-like temperament </strong>that mixes patience with occasional bold action” </em>i.e. stay still for as long as possible and then move rapidly &amp; decisively.\r\n\r\nThorndike summarised the unique characteristics of the Outsiders/Unusual Billionaires nicely in the HBR interview which is referenced right at the beginning of this note. At the core of exceptional businesses are exceptional men &amp; women. Meeting them and learning from them makes working in Marcellus the world’s most interesting job.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.   </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Marcellus: “Unusual Billionaires” Flip the Competitive Paradigm', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:19:49', '2019-11-05 11:19:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=859', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1513, 1, '2019-07-23 13:51:34', '2019-07-23 13:51:34', '<img class=\"wp-image-1515 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BLOG-300x182.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"704\" height=\"427\" />\r\n\r\n(Pictured above: The Panchachuli peaks photographed from Saurabh’s decrepit phone)\r\n<em>Published on:23 July, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>As investment managers, can we morally justify earning healthy returns year after year from investing in companies which generate supernormal returns from monopolising the sale of essential products to millions of Indians? The Mahabharata provides guidance on this troublesome ethical question.  </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“What is here is found elsewhere.</em>\r\n<em>What is not here is nowhere.”</em>\r\n<em>– <strong>The Mahabharata 1.56.34-45</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Voices from the past &amp; present raise difficult questions</strong>\r\nExactly 20 years ago, my then fiancé (now wife) and I went to seek the blessings of an aunt who passed away shortly thereafter. Her parting instruction to us was, <em>“You can choose which country you want to live in but once you have chosen that country, stay put and make that country your karma bhoomi.” </em>(Crudely translated, karma bhoomi means “the land where one works”.)\r\n\r\nIt was difficult for us to forget what my late aunt said not least because the transformational impact her family has had on pre &amp; post-Independence India. And so when our son was born in late 2007 we decided to migrate from the UK, a country where I had lived most of my life, to build a life in India.\r\n\r\nIn India, largely by design and partly by luck, I find myself working in Marcellus with a group of people who want to be a force for good by managing money for HNW investors in a transparent, cost-efficient structure which delivers consistent returns with volatility akin to a Government of India ten year bond.\r\n\r\nHowever, since our central mode of investing entails making money year after year from investing in Indian companies who dominate the sale of essential products to Indians behind monopolistic barriers to entry (which ensure very high Returns on Capital), a few perceptive clients have raised tricky moral issues for us. [See our 1<sup>st</sup> June piece <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm/</a> for more details on how we identify investments.]\r\n\r\nA senior fund manager outside India for whom we manage money has ethical issues with us investing in a cigarette manufacturer. A legendary business strategy guru in the UK has raised an even broader issue regarding the ethics of investing in monopoly-like companies. His point is that the era where business &amp; ethics were seen as being divorced from each other has come to an end. Therefore, consumers/voters are not going to tolerate companies generating extraordinary Returns on Capital whilst selling essential products to the public.\r\n\r\nIn this piece we delve into each of these issues using the Mahabharata as an analogy for as the quote at the beginning of the note says, the Mahabharata is a microcosm of the world at large.\r\n\r\n<strong>The Mahabharata - the world in one epic</strong>\r\nWe will draw upon the two central moral quandries which are elaborated upon in the great epic. The first is Arjuna’s famous dilemma as the Pandava and the Kaurava armies line up against each other in Kurukshetra. Upon seeing his kinsmen on the other side of the battlefield, Arjuna lays down his famous bow – the Gandiva – and refuses to engage in battle. Krishna, his charioteer, first tries to reason with Arjuna. When that does not work, Krishna resorts to his authority as God and impresses upon Arjuna that his Dharma is to be a warrior whether he likes it or not. He cannot escape his Dharma and he must fulfill it. Arjuna has to be a warrior for what is right and just.\r\n\r\nFollowing this line of thought, our job as fund managers is to be stewards of our clients’ monies. We first need to protect the corpus we are given and then we need to grow the corpus without putting the monies as risk. We believe that this job can be best done by investing in companies who meet three criteria: their books are not cooked, they sell essential products and they do so behind the shelter of monopolistic barriers to entry. Yes, it is likely that the flipside of the enormous profits generated by these companies is that Indian consumers pay over the odds for these products but that is the equivalent of Arjuna having to go to war against his kinsmen.\r\n\r\nThe second moral quandry in the Mahabharata is more prolonged and even more troubling. As the battle wears on, Krishna uses underhand tactics to help the Pandavas kill the key Kaurava warriors one by one. For example, when Bhima and Duryodhana face off, Krishna doubts that Bhima will be able to prevail upon a warrior as mighty as Duryodhana; hence Bhima will need some sort of dodge. Krishna indicates as much to Arjuna who slaps his left thigh. Bhima gets the hint and smashes his mace into Duryodhana’s left thigh thus pulverizing it. Is this foul move justified? Is Krishna’s repeated trickery justified?\r\n\r\nAs Gurcharan Das explains in his lucidly written book ‘The Difficulty of Being Good: The Subtle Art of Dharma’ (2009): <em>“Krishna firmly believes that once you make the fateful decision to go to war then you must win at any cost. As he sees it, the Pandavas’ cause is just, and once the war begins the only thing that matters is victory…</em>\r\n<em>The game of dice, which led to the exile of the Pandavas and the Kurukshetra War, reflects the decline of dharma. The Kurukshetra War was thus inevitable. It was meant to lead to pralaya, ‘end of the world’, after which would emerge a golden age, the Krita Yuga, another throw of the dice, under the rule of the good king, Yudhishthira. Krishna, too defends, his questionable acts of this basis.”</em>\r\n\r\nIn 21<sup>st</sup> century India, we and our clients find ourselves living in a country where the benchmark’s decadal earnings CAGR has been barely 8%, where the capex cycle has been muted for 8 years and where the lending, auditing and credit rating ecosystem has been steadily corrupted. Therefore, to generate healthy returns for our clients – many of whom are relying upon us to finance major life events such as retirement – without taking high levels of risk, we have to invest in well managed highly cash generative monopolies.\r\n\r\nIf these monopolies sell addictive products then so be it. The Government, not we, has to make a call on whether these products pose a danger to public health. If these addictive products are being sold legally then we believe it is appropriate for us to invest in such stocks. Of course, if a specific client does NOT want us to have such stocks in his portfolio, we have to honour that request for his/her specific portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>So what is the risk that we are running?</strong>\r\nThe great epic can also be used to understand the key risk that we are running with our style of investing. After the 18-day war in Kurukshetra is over, <em>“A sense of horror and melancholy dominates the victors’ mood. Almost everyone is dead and there is no joy in ruling over an empty kingdom. Yudhishthira, in particular, is incosolable…The end of the epic is a time of twilight. After ruling for thirty-six years, the Pandavas feel weary and disillusioned. Krishna dies a banal death. As he is resting on the bank of a river, a hunter mistakes his foot for a bird, killing him with an arrow. After that the Pandavas decide that it is time to leave the world…The five brothers, along with Draupadi, set out for the ‘city of the gods’ in the Himalayas. On the way, they fall one by one, except Yudhisthira who alone reaches heaven.” </em>[Source: Gurcharan Das\' ‘The Difficulty of Being Good’ (2009)]\r\n\r\nWhilst we hope that our end will not be as melancholic, we realise that one day India too will get a premiere like Theodore Roosevolt who will use his/her pulpit to expound against unethical causes. As the outstanding writer, Doris Kearns Goodwin, explains in her book ‘The Bully Pulpit’ (2013), at the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, industrial barons monopolised entire industries in America. <em>“There are but a handful of times in the history of our country,”</em> Goodwin writes in her introduction, <em>“when there occurs a transformation so remarkable that a molt seems to take place, and an altered country begins to emerge.” </em>As and when an altered India emerges, we will have to revisit our investment strategy. For now, we continue to consistently compound for our clients courtesy monopolists selling essential products.\r\n\r\nIncidentally, the people of Garhwal in Uttarakhand believe that the Pandavas &amp; Draupadi continue to live forever as the five Himalayan peaks called the Panchachuli - see the photo at the beginning of the note and <a href=\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panchchuli\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panchchuli</a>\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Mahabharata and the Ethics of Investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-mahabharata-and-the-ethics-of-investing', '', '', '2019-11-15 09:50:28', '2019-11-15 09:50:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1513', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1453, 1, '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', 'Author: Tiffany Hsu &amp; Rachel Abrams\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1e9b9b3456&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/business/subway-franchisees.html</a>)\r\nOne of the first things we learnt when we started investing in India is that any business where barriers to entry are low will sooner rather than later become a cesspit as the lack of profits will make the stakeholders go for each others’ throats. Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) fits this bill perfectly – it is next to impossible to make Return on Capital in excess of Cost of Capital from this category. And what applies to India also applies to the USA, the country where QSR format was born. This New York Times article details how Subway, a chain with a basic menu and a commoditised product, managed to get into an adversarial relationship with its own franchisees.\r\nThe basic problem seems to be that there are now too many Subways in America because the owner did not keep a grip on store numbers and hungry immigrants (lots of them Indian professionals) flocked to open franchisee stores: <em>“Subway is the largest fast-food company in the world by store count, with more than 24,000 restaurants in the United States alone. It got that way thanks in large part to entrepreneurial immigrants. Unlike at chains such as McDonald’s and Burger King, where many franchises are operated by investment firms, Subway owners are mostly individuals and families. The company’s co-founder, Fred DeLuca, made stores easy to open; most new franchisees are charged a $15,000 initial fee, compared to $45,000 at McDonald’s. In exchange, Subway operators must hand over more revenue than at many other chains — 8 percent of gross sales — while also agreeing to other fees and stipulations.”</em>\r\nThe problem of too many stores hit home after Mr DeLuca died in 2015. His sister, Suzanne Greco, took over and she seems to have hit upon a solution: <em>“In 2016, for the first time ever, more Subway stores closed than opened. But while many franchisees shut down because of underperformance, others operating profitable locations began to feel targeted, too.”</em>\r\nThis NYT article says that certain Subway stores were targeted for shut down and to make them shut down the company would send inspectors to nitpick on the store: <em>“Manoj Tripathi couldn’t shake the feeling that someone had a vendetta against his Subway sandwich shop. A franchisee for nearly two decades, he had done everything he could to keep his restaurant, in a strip mall in Northern California, in perfect condition. But lately it seemed like someone was out to get him.</em>\r\n<em>It was the middle of 2017, and inspectors sent by Subway’s regional manager were finding a new problem to cite each month: a handprint on the glass door, the wrong brand of bathroom soap, cucumber slices that were too thick, he said. They seemed to be little things, but with each write-up, Mr. Tripathi’s grip on his store weakened. If he racked up enough infractions, Subway could terminate his contract and take control of the business.</em>\r\n<em>When an inspector named Rebecca Husler arrived one day that September, Mr. Tripathi thought his restaurant was pristine. Then he noticed that a single light fixture needed a new bulb. Mr. Tripathi rushed out to buy a replacement, but by the time he returned, Ms. Husler had marked it as a violation. A year later, just as he feared, he lost the Subway.”</em>\r\nThese store closures have left many of the franchisees – hard working first generation immigrants to America – nursing huge losses. Some of them are in litigation with Subway but that won’t address the basic economic issue i.e. it is hard to make money in QSR because the barriers to entry are so low.', 'Fast food chain Subway got too big and its franchisees paid a price', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fast-food-chain-subway-got-too-big-and-its-franchisees-paid-a-price', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1453', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1454, 1, '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', 'Author: Tiffany Hsu &amp; Rachel Abrams\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1e9b9b3456&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/28/business/subway-franchisees.html</a>)\r\nOne of the first things we learnt when we started investing in India is that any business where barriers to entry are low will sooner rather than later become a cesspit as the lack of profits will make the stakeholders go for each others’ throats. Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) fits this bill perfectly – it is next to impossible to make Return on Capital in excess of Cost of Capital from this category. And what applies to India also applies to the USA, the country where QSR format was born. This New York Times article details how Subway, a chain with a basic menu and a commoditised product, managed to get into an adversarial relationship with its own franchisees.\r\nThe basic problem seems to be that there are now too many Subways in America because the owner did not keep a grip on store numbers and hungry immigrants (lots of them Indian professionals) flocked to open franchisee stores: <em>“Subway is the largest fast-food company in the world by store count, with more than 24,000 restaurants in the United States alone. It got that way thanks in large part to entrepreneurial immigrants. Unlike at chains such as McDonald’s and Burger King, where many franchises are operated by investment firms, Subway owners are mostly individuals and families. The company’s co-founder, Fred DeLuca, made stores easy to open; most new franchisees are charged a $15,000 initial fee, compared to $45,000 at McDonald’s. In exchange, Subway operators must hand over more revenue than at many other chains — 8 percent of gross sales — while also agreeing to other fees and stipulations.”</em>\r\nThe problem of too many stores hit home after Mr DeLuca died in 2015. His sister, Suzanne Greco, took over and she seems to have hit upon a solution: <em>“In 2016, for the first time ever, more Subway stores closed than opened. But while many franchisees shut down because of underperformance, others operating profitable locations began to feel targeted, too.”</em>\r\nThis NYT article says that certain Subway stores were targeted for shut down and to make them shut down the company would send inspectors to nitpick on the store: <em>“Manoj Tripathi couldn’t shake the feeling that someone had a vendetta against his Subway sandwich shop. A franchisee for nearly two decades, he had done everything he could to keep his restaurant, in a strip mall in Northern California, in perfect condition. But lately it seemed like someone was out to get him.</em>\r\n<em>It was the middle of 2017, and inspectors sent by Subway’s regional manager were finding a new problem to cite each month: a handprint on the glass door, the wrong brand of bathroom soap, cucumber slices that were too thick, he said. They seemed to be little things, but with each write-up, Mr. Tripathi’s grip on his store weakened. If he racked up enough infractions, Subway could terminate his contract and take control of the business.</em>\r\n<em>When an inspector named Rebecca Husler arrived one day that September, Mr. Tripathi thought his restaurant was pristine. Then he noticed that a single light fixture needed a new bulb. Mr. Tripathi rushed out to buy a replacement, but by the time he returned, Ms. Husler had marked it as a violation. A year later, just as he feared, he lost the Subway.”</em>\r\nThese store closures have left many of the franchisees – hard working first generation immigrants to America – nursing huge losses. Some of them are in litigation with Subway but that won’t address the basic economic issue i.e. it is hard to make money in QSR because the barriers to entry are so low.', 'Fast food chain Subway got too big and its franchisees paid a price', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1453-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '2019-07-07 08:03:05', '', 1453, 'http://marcellus.in/1453-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(865, 1, '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><em>Published on: 28th April, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on Tagore, Darwin’s rules of thinking, millennials’ car ownership, NFL’s lessons for talent identification, how to reduce digital distractions and Big Tech’s invasion of banking.</strong>[Marcellus is offering internships to budding Equity Analysts. See: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bab9cccb3&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>]<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>Long read: Traveling With Tagore</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Ramachandra Guha\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Penguin Classics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78cc1a1f48&amp;e=5648501957\">http://ramachandraguha.in/archives/traveling-with-tagore-penguin-classics.html</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Guha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here is Tagore writing in 1885,</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.</em>\r\n<em>Quoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">: <em>“In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.</em>\r\n<em>The Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">T</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">hirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.</em>\r\n<em>Tagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em></span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The man’s practicality - in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India -  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>Long read: How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Farnam Street\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Farnam Street (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b61b3de62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fs.blog/2016/01/charles-darwin-thinker/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”</em>\r\n<em>The life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:</em>\r\n<em>‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’</em>\r\n<em>This habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: <em>“Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:</em>\r\n<em>‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’</em>\r\n<em>Not only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: <em>“Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: <em>“I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street notes that <em>“Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.</em>\r\n<em>‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’</em>\r\n<em>So we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Driving? The Kids Are So Over It</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Adrienne Roberts\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> WSJ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40980227f7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it-11555732810</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a></span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%....Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em></span></em> <span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house. </em>\r\n<em>When they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…</em>\r\n<em>…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills. </em>\r\n<em>The process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive. </em>\r\n<em>….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings” </em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“...Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.</em>\r\n<em>….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…</em>\r\n<em>…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000. </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Short read: How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author: </strong>Cade Massey\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Behavioral Scientist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=35ba8a068b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://behavioralscientist.org/how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft/</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? </span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">“</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n</span><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd</em>.”\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). </span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Short read: How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Jamie Kreiner\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> AEON (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=236556ea09&amp;e=5648501957\">https://aeon.co/ideas/how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.</em>\r\n<em>…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…</em>\r\n<em>…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…</em>\r\n<em>Restraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.</em>\r\n<em>There were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.</em>\r\n<em>Say that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<span style=\"color: red;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking</strong></span>\r\n<strong>Author:</strong> Dan Murphy\r\n<strong>Source:</strong> Milken Institute Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=688a36303a&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/big-techs-invasion-of-banking?IssueID=32</a>)\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.</em>\r\n<em>The scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.</em>\r\n<em>After successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”</em>\r\n</span></em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.</span><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">\r\n<em>“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '28th April 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '756-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '2019-06-06 04:08:49', '', 756, 'http://marcellus.in/756-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(867, 1, '2019-06-06 04:14:42', '2019-06-06 04:14:42', 'Published on: 6th June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.  </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.  </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.  </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6th June 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '6th-june-2019', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:42:39', '2019-06-06 04:42:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=867', 0, 'post', '', 0);
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(872, 1, '2019-06-06 04:38:37', '2019-06-06 04:38:37', 'Published on: 6th June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.  </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.  </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.  </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '2nd June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '867-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:38:37', '2019-06-06 04:38:37', '', 867, 'http://marcellus.in/867-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(868, 1, '2019-06-06 04:14:42', '2019-06-06 04:14:42', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(871, 1, '2019-06-06 04:36:46', '2019-06-06 04:36:46', 'Published on: 6th June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.  </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.  </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.  </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(869, 1, '2019-06-06 04:34:26', '2019-06-06 04:34:26', 'Published on: 2nd June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(870, 1, '2019-06-06 04:35:27', '2019-06-06 04:35:27', 'Published on: 6th June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. 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(873, 1, '2019-06-06 04:42:39', '2019-06-06 04:42:39', 'Published on: 6th June, 2019\r\n\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on the inverse co-relation between manager compensation and return on capital, the world of lab-grown diamonds, why doctors hate computers, why symptom trackers make you feel worse, the Deccan kings’ religious history and the need for continuous upskilling.</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd1c117888&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1. <strong>Long read: Return on Capital Super Heroes</strong>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Macpherson\r\nSource: GuruFocus (<a href=\"https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570\">https://www.gurufocus.com/news/881570</a>)\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.  </em><strong>Long read: Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds</strong>\r\nAuthor: Maddie Stone\r\nSource: Gizmodo (<a href=\"https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351\">https://earther.gizmodo.com/beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds-1834890351</a>)\r\nDiamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. </strong><strong>Long read: Why Doctors Hate Their Computers</strong>\r\nAuthor: Atul Gawande\r\nSource: The New Yorker (<a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/11/12/why-doctors-hate-their-computers</a>)\r\nIT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.  </strong><strong>Short read: If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai</strong>\r\nAuthor: William Dalrymple interviews Manu Pillai\r\nSource: The Hindu (<a href=\"https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece\">https://www.thehindu.com/books/books-authors/in-conversation-with-writer-researcher-manu-s-pillai/article24180367.ece</a>)\r\nThis conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.  </strong><strong>Short read: Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse</strong>\r\nAuthor: Elena Lacey\r\nSource: WIRED (<a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/\">https://www.wired.com/story/why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse/</a> )\r\nElena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>\r\nAuthor: Utkarsh Amitabh\r\nSource: Livemint (<a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/business-of-life/influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself-1558434143282.html</a>)\r\nUtkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '6th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '867-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 04:42:39', '2019-06-06 04:42:39', '', 867, 'http://marcellus.in/867-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(891, 1, '2019-06-14 14:28:27', '2019-06-14 14:28:27', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:14 June, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>High flown theories of Finance &amp; Investing don’t work in India. What works in the Indian stockmarket is risk minimisation. We minimise risks associated with accounting fraud, with topline &amp; bottomline volatility and with liquidity. In other words, we invest in clean monopolies selling essential products. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Sophisticated investment literature can be damaging for your wealth</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There are many delusional theories in Finance. One of these is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) which contends that since stock prices efficiently discount all the available information in the market, it is impossible to beat the market. Another is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) which claims that the returns from a stock will be directly proportional to the systematic risk (or beta) represented by the stock.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Warren Buffett’s rubbishing of the EMH is well-known (see<a href=\"https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf</a>), thanks to the pseudo-science peddled by business schools, CAPM is still taught in classrooms across the world including in India, a country where CAPM is even less applicable than it is in America.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">CAPM says that returns are proportional to risk, it follows therefore that the only way you can generate higher returns in the market is by taking more risk. Basis this elegant theory, wealth managers lead their clients down the garden path towards high risk products whilst selling the delusion that higher risk will lead to higher returns.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Crushing risk is the key to generating higher returns</strong>\r\nOur decade of working and investing in India has led us to conclude that you need to minimise four types of risks if you want to generate steady &amp; healthy investment returns in the Indian stockmarket:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Accounting risk</strong>: Whilst we all now know how prominent public and private sector banks in India fudged their NPA figures for years on end until the RBI’s Asset Quality Review forced them to come clean, the same problem exists with several housing finance companies (who don’t come under the RBI’s purview). The accounts of a leading cement manufacturer don’t stack up. Neither does the annual report of high flying retailer make sense. Ditto with a prominent petchem company and a prominent pharma company. In fact, the majority of the companies in the BSE500 have annual reports which don’t pass scrutiny. Using ten forensic accounting ratios and a financial model which contains time series data on 1300 of India’s largest listed companies, we seek to identify that 20% of the Indian stockmarket whose books are actually believable.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Topline risk</strong>: At US$2000, India’s per capita income is still very low (less than half the level of Sri Lanka and a quarter of the level of South East Asian countries like Thailand and Malaysia). As a result, beyond the basic essentials of life – FMCG products, pharma products, basic apparel – most other products in India are luxury items for most Indians. As a result, even for small cars or entry-level two-wheelers, demand in India fluctuates wildly. Eg. Maruti Suzuki typically experiences 5-6 years of strong demand growth (growth well above 15% per annum) followed by 3-4 years of famine (growth well below 5% per annum). Whilst its cross-cycle average growth tends to be around 12%, the stock price volatility reflects the volatility of Maruti’s topline growth. In contrast, a company selling essential products like Asian Paints or Marico, tends to see steady revenue growth – between 10-20% per annum – pretty much every year. Investing in companies selling essential products in India therefore reduces risk.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Bottomline risk</strong>: As the cost of capital is still pretty high for India, it is rare to find Indian companies who spend heavily on genuine R&amp;D. Understandably therefore, the Indian economy is characterized by rapid imitation – one company spots a niche (say, gold loan finance) and within a decade it has a 100 imitators. This rapid new entry squeezes the profitability of the first mover and thus creates risk for its shareholders. In order to reduce such risk we look for sectors where over extended periods of time, 1 or 2 companies cumulatively account for 80% of the sector’s profit pie. Such monopolies have lower volatility in their profit margin.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>4. Liquidity risk</strong>: India is the least liquid of the world’s top ten stockmarkets largely because promoters own more than half of the shares outstanding in the Indian market. As a result of this, beyond the top 30 or so stocks in India, liquidity – measured by average daily traded volume (ADV) – drops rapidly. By the time you are in the lower reaches of the BSE100, ADV is well below $5m per day. Such low liquidity creates stock price gyrations as investors go through their cycles of election induced euphoria followed by accounting fraud induced panic. Tilting the portfolio towards liquid stocks reduces this risk.</span></em></p>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the past decade another corollary of CAPM – smart beta - has become fashionable. Smart beta practitioners (no pun intended) believe that there are various types of systematic risk embedded in stock prices eg. size (i.e. small caps should outperform large caps), value (i.e. cheaper stocks should outperform more expensive stocks), momentum (i.e. stocks which are doing well should continue doing well), etc. Basically, what smart beta practitioners are saying is that investors who take any of the four risks outlined in the preceding section should be rewarded by the market for taking that extra risk. That line of thinking does not work in India.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In my book <em>“Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em> (2018), I have shown that identifying stocks with low accounting risk, low topline risk and low bottomline risk using a simple quantitative filter (revenue growth should be in double digits <u>and</u> ROCE should be above 15% every year for ten consecutive years) consistently generates returns in the vicinity of 20% per annum with share price volatility half that of the Nifty. Even without adjusting for risk (volatility), you are far better off investing in this portfolio rather than in the Nifty. In fact, you are far better off investing in this portfolio – akin to our Consistent Compounder Portfolio (CCP) – relative to almost every other asset class in India (including real estate, private equity and government bonds) – see chart above. You do NOT have to take extra risk in India (or load up on beta) to get healthy returns.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Why does this simple filter-based approach to creating a CCP work so consistently? Because the CCP basically seeks to minimise the four risks outlined in the preceding section. If a company is able to grow revenues at double digits every year for ten consecutive years, it is almost certainly selling an essential product which will be in demand in both economic booms and busts. Secondly, if a company is able to generate ROCE above 15% every year for ten consecutive years, it is highly likely to be a dominant/moated franchise. (The vast majority of the Nifty companies have not generated an ROCE of 15% even once in the past ten years.)</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Less than 15 companies make it through the two filters described above. And because we are seeking to minimise risk rather than chase returns, the occasional period of underperformance (see our recent newsletter:<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\">https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf</a>) does not cause us to lose sleep. We are happy crushing risk rather than chasing the ephemeral fantasies of high returns.</span></em></p>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Crushing Risk is More Rewarding than Chasing Returns', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-crushing-risk-is-more-rewarding-than-chasing-returns', '', '', '2019-11-04 12:05:30', '2019-11-04 12:05:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=891', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(880, 1, '2019-06-06 06:06:57', '2019-06-06 06:06:57', '', 'Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019 (2)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_ccp_newsletter_june_2019-2', '', '', '2019-06-06 06:06:57', '2019-06-06 06:06:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(878, 1, '2019-06-06 05:42:25', '2019-06-06 05:42:25', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>\r\n<em>\r\n</em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 05:42:25', '2019-06-06 05:42:25', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(877, 1, '2019-06-06 05:40:19', '2019-06-06 05:40:19', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n<h3><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" />  <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"file:///C:/Users/Balveer/Downloads/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019%20(1).pdf\">June 2019</a></strong></span></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>\r\n<h3><em><!--more--></em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 05:40:19', '2019-06-06 05:40:19', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(992, 1, '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '<em>Published on: 23rd June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.                   </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6276076f8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6857b7a685&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting</a>)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against \"cash deserts\"</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6adc7be2d1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/</a>)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d0c14ee030&amp;e=5648501957\">https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c</a> )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=534a7d4da3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/</a>)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The promotion curse</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1bc4b172bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse</a> )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India\'s hottest place</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma\r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c5c5455cb3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html</a>  )\r\n\r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '23rd June 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '23rd-june-2019', '', '', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=992', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(881, 1, '2019-06-06 06:09:03', '2019-06-06 06:09:03', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>\r\n<em>\r\n</em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-06 06:09:03', '2019-06-06 06:09:03', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(885, 1, '2019-06-06 08:53:59', '2019-06-06 08:53:59', '', 'WEBINAR', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'webinar', '', '', '2019-06-06 08:58:35', '2019-06-06 08:58:35', '', 152, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/WEBINAR.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(886, 1, '2019-06-08 06:06:36', '2019-06-08 06:06:36', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:7 June, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><strong>We navigate day-to-day life, making decisions mostly based on our intuitive thinking, which is formed by years of experience in understanding and judging events. However, many important decisions in life, especially in investing, require thinking beyond the obvious, what is called System 2 thinking.</strong></em></p>\r\nThis summer, I went tiger sighting at one of India’s 50 odd Tiger Reserves. The mercury was breaching 45<sup>o</sup>C, but the safaris were fully booked, indicating the tiger’s popularity with enthusiasts and regular tourists alike. However, there was a short period of time in 2012, when tiger tourism had been banned by the Supreme Court, in response to a petition filed by an NGO. The contention was that tourism was detrimental to conservation efforts and keeping tourists away from the ‘core’ areas of the reserves will lead to improved habitats, and as a result, an increase in the tiger population.\r\n\r\nThere was also another school of thought which advocated the exact opposite. Since local populations depend on tourism for their livelihood, they are incentivised to not only preserve the forests, but also report activities such as poaching, illegal tree-cutting and so on. Tourism thus helps the tiger population thrive.\r\n\r\nMatters of conservation aside, this episode highlights how we often mistakenly identify the cause of a problem. Sometimes, what appears at first glance to be the cause is a completely unrelated issue, could be just a symptom or in the case of tiger tourism, turn out to be a possible solution to the problem. And what seems like a possible solution could sometimes worsen the problem. Like banning liquor to prevent alcoholism drives people to seek spurious sources, leading to more serious health concerns. Or waiving farm loans to relieve agrarian distress worsens a famer’s access to credit in the long term.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore crucial to look beyond the obvious, so that the cause of a problem is correctly identified, and the right solution applied. The same principle works in the case of investing, but with the objective reversed – one is looking for opportunities rather than problems. We try to identify the core drivers of success as well as the root causes of failures of a business. While this seems so basic that it shouldn’t even warrant a mention by an asset management firm like ours, it is quite difficult in practice. And at Marcellus we constantly remind ourselves of the risks of falling into the trap of getting swayed by what seems obvious at first glance.\r\n\r\nDaniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize winning psychologist describes this as System 1 and System 2 thinking. One is intuitive and the other, analytical. System 1 operates automatically and with practically no effort. For example, the answer to 2 + 2 would come to you in in instant. System 2 on the other hand requires some concentration and thinking. Consider this puzzle: A bat and ball together cost $1.1. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Kahneman’s (with Shane Frederick) research showed that most people tend to use System 1 thinking and answer that the ball costs 10 cents, which is wrong. A little effort (System 2 thinking) yields the correct answer.\r\n\r\nWe make decisions most of the times intuitively, and it has little consequence on the outcome. However, in managing investments, we need to frequently call upon our System 2 thinking. A civil EPC company reporting a consistent increase in operating margins should be a positive indicator to buy the stock, right? But how much of the margin expansion is due to aggressive revenue recognition or from liberal credit terms granted to customers? A commodity producer sees profitability improve despite a fall in volumes. How much of it is explained by better realisations (the obvious) and how much by the reduced volumes leading to a higher proportion of relatively lower-cost captive raw material consumed (the not-so-obvious)?\r\n\r\nOf the many ways in which we, at Marcellus try and avoid some of the traps in identifying success factors of a business, is constantly questioning ourselves as, well as colleagues, for all stock ideas under research. Our portfolio counsellors face a barrage of Whys, Hows and Whats in every team meeting, forcing all of us to collectively uncover, layer by layer, the secret sauce of a potential portfolio stock. A stock discussion in our research meeting could go like this:\r\n<em>Colleague A: General Insurance Company XYZ will earn RoE in excess of n% over the next 5 years</em>\r\n<em>Colleague B: Why?</em>\r\n<em>A: Because their combined ratio will go below 100% and investment yields will sustain at 9%</em>\r\n<em>C: Why will combined ratio improve?</em>\r\n<em>A: They have an experienced underwriting team and strong risk selection processes</em>\r\n<em>D: What is strong about the risk selection process?</em>\r\n<em>A: They use extensive data analytics to price risks and the sales team is penalised for poor underwriting experience, which incentivises them to select customers carefully</em>\r\n<em>B: What are the examples of use of data analytics and evidence of how it has helped in avoiding risks</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…these discussions thus go on till the team is convinced of the fundamental drivers of a company’s performance.</em>\r\n\r\nIdentifying the root cause of a company’s performance is thus the first important step in our investment analysis. The second, and equally important step is to understand whether the drivers of performance can be sustained over the long term or not – what is a defensible moat or an enduring competitive advantage? An IT company has been consistently growing profits and let’s say we identify its industry-leading attrition rate as one of the reasons for its success. We are then interested in knowing what in its HR policies helps keep employee retention at such high levels. And then, what is it that competitors cannot do to achieve the same level of success in retaining people.\r\n\r\nThe task of finding the core drivers of success and their sustainability is especially challenging for companies that are already successful. For example, in trying to identify the root cause of the low attrition of the same IT company mentioned above, we may seek feedback from employees or external HR consultants or competitors. The answers we’ll probably get are ‘we have an employee friendly culture’, ‘the company helps maintain work-life balance’, ‘management cares for people’, ‘best learning and training policies in the industry’ and so on. How should one interpret this feedback? Is the company offering the best training in the industry as an employee retention tool, which in turn is driving profits? Or that the company can afford to offer high quality training because it is so profitable? And if profits slow or decline in the future, will training budgets get cut? The same goes for culture – a bank’s culture of pursuing aggressive growth is admired when profits are rising. But when NPAs also rise, the same aggression is blamed for the downfall.\r\n\r\nPhil Rosenzweig captures these issues brilliantly in his book, ‘The Halo Effect’. He says, “Successful companies will almost always be described in terms of a clear strategy, good organization, strong corporate culture, and customer focus. But whether these things drive company performance, or whether they’re mainly attributions based on performance, is a different matter.”\r\n\r\nWhile our research process is much more extensive and covers more ground than explained above, we always start with the two essential steps – first, knowing what the key to success is, and then understanding if it can be replicated by others or not. Most often, the answers to these questions set us on the path to uncovering the enduring competitive advantage (or the lack of it) of a business and then eventually, the decision to hold it in our portfolios.\r\n\r\nSo, while we go back to pondering more on potential investment ideas, we would urge you to contemplate taking your next holiday in the wild and help save some tigers!\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/blog/\">http://marcellus.in/blog/</a></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong><em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></li>\r\n</ol>', 'Marcellus: India\'s tiger boom is System 2 thinking exemplified', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-indias-tiger-boom-is-system-2-thinking-exemplified', '', '', '2019-11-15 09:57:44', '2019-11-15 09:57:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=886', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(884, 1, '2019-06-06 06:55:42', '2019-06-06 06:55:42', '', 'webinar (2)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'webinar-2', '', '', '2019-06-06 06:55:42', '2019-06-06 06:55:42', '', 152, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/webinar-2.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1988, 1, '2019-10-23 09:13:35', '2019-10-23 09:13:35', '<em>Published on:30 July, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Indian NBFCs are struggling not because of lack of liquidity in the system but because the money market has lost faith in most NBFCs’ balance sheets and in the credit rating agencies’ ratings. Hence rather than cutting CRR/SLR/repo rate, the RBI should vet the balance sheets of the NBFCs and make the findings public. A “voluntary AQR” for the 50 largest NBFCs will reverse the ongoing crisis.</strong>\n\n<strong>A guide to how NBFCs function across the world</strong>\nThe business model of a non-bank lender is and always has been straightforward, in India and abroad. The lender has equity of $10 and borrows $90 (debt:equity of 9x) from the wholesale money market (say, at the run rate of $45 every six months).\n\nThis $100 is then lent at a certain interest rate either to people who want to buy flats (20 year home loans) or to a developer who wants to construct residential housing blocks (5 year developer loans) or to consumers who want to buy cars, trucks, TVs (2-3 year loans). Most of the interest collected from these borrowers goes to the wholesale money market participants who gave the NBFC the $90. Assuming a spread between the two interest rates of 3%, gives the NBFC a gross profit of $3 on the $100 it has lent.\n\nWith that $3, the NBFC pays for its operating costs (assume 50 cents) and for bad debts (i.e. for borrowers who do not repay). Assuming it is a well-run NBFC, the bad debts could be as little 50 cents. That means that on $100 of loans (funded by a mere $10 of equity), the NBFC will make a profit of $2 (3 – 0.50 – 0.50). That results in a very impressive Return on Equity of 20% (2 / 10), enough to convince almost every fund manager in India to seek a stake in the said NBFC.\n\nThen one day, one of the developers (who has been lent, say, just $2) says that he cannot repay. So the NBFC takes possession of the half constructed building that the developer has erected but can’t find any buyers for the skeletal structure. That year the NBFC’s profits go to zero as the normal operating profit of $2 is wiped out by the developer’s default. Next month, the wholesale money market – unnerved by the NBFC’s zero profits – refuses to extend its usual $45 to the NBFC; rather it coughs up only $25. This is not enough for the NBFC to rollover its existing debt.\n\nSince the NBFC’s shareholders’ equity is only $10, the NBFC is now left insufficient funds. It can do one of two things: (1) raise more equity (which would heavily dilute the current shareholders but protect the wholesale money market lenders who have lent money to the NBFC); or (2) default on the monies that it owes the wholesale market (which completely wipes out the current shareholders and the wholesale money market lenders). [The above text is taken from our 20<sup>th</sup> October 2018 note on how fund managers get fooled into investing in NBFCs: see <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/</a><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/</a>\n\n<strong>The significance of NBFCs and HFCs in India</strong>\nIndian NBFCs and HFCs account for 23% of loans outstanding in the country at the end of FY19, up from 15% of loans outstanding at the end of FY15 (throughout this note, we will use the abbreviation NBFCs to refer to NBFCs and HFCs). However, their importance is even more pronounced in two specific sectors – NBFCs account for 21% of the credit outstanding to SMEs and 54% of loans outstanding to the real estate sector as on 31<sup>st</sup> December, 2018. It is well known that NBFCs provide credit to that part of the Indian economy where the private sector banks prefer not to lend (either because the risks are too high or because the returns are too low).\n\nIt is therefore unfortunate that in the wake of the IL&amp;FS debacle, NBFCs are increasingly finding it hard to access funding. The reason for this is not hard to find. Unlike banks, NBFCs credit growth has been fueled largely by borrowings from the banks and from the capital and money markets. In particular, NBFCs were accessing half of their funding from the mutual funds by issuing Commercial Papers (CPs) and Certificates of Deposits (CDs). Between FY14 and FY18, the share of CPs within the borrowing mix doubled for NBFCs while it tripled for HFCs. Due to relatively lower costs, the sharp rise in share of CP borrowings had a positive effect on the cost of funds and margins for NBFCs. However, it increased vulnerability to asset liability mismatches (ALM; this refers to the fact that these lenders have short dated borrowings and long dated assets).\n\nIn specific, if the NBFC is unable to rollover or refinance the CPs, solvency issues arise, and growth is adversely impacted (as explained at the beginning of the note). The NBFCs\' growth over FY14-18 was fueled by this huge influx of capital from multiple sources. This was owing to their perceived capability to grow ahead of the system and tap lending opportunities to under-served segments and geographies. The IL&amp;FS debacle materially damaged the sector’s image and squeezed the flow of capital to the sector.\n\nFurther, the rating agencies have belatedly downgraded the debt papers of some of these lenders, making it even more difficult for them to raise funds from banks or MFs. While mutual funds are not allowed to lend to firms rated below B, the threshold for insurance firms and pension funds is set at AA. .\n\nThe shortage of funding for these lenders is having a direct impact on economic growth which has in the past 6 months slowed down to a decadal low. More specifically, auto sales are falling sharply, the real estate sector (historically, the largest creator of jobs in India) continues to struggle and channel financing is becoming hard to come by for everything from electrical equipment to undergarments.\n\n<strong>How can the RBI remedy the situation?</strong>\nAs noted before, NBFCs were accessing half of their funding from the mutual funds by issuing CPs &amp; CDs. Since the mutual funds are finding it more difficult now to rely upon the ratings disbursed by credit rating agencies and they no longer trust the stated balance sheets of the NBFCs, the mutual funds no longer  want to buy CPs and CDs. Thus the NBFCs are thus deprived of incremental funding which in turn is jamming economic activity amongst SMEs, auto manufactures and real estate developers.\n\n<u>A potential solution which can break this logjam is announcement of a “Voluntary AQR” scheme by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). </u>The RBI gave birth to the AQR (Asset Quality Review) when 4 years ago when it announced that all banks’ balance sheets will be scrutinised to assess if the banks are understating their Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). The six month long exercise found that several prominent banks were indeed understating their NPAs by a significant margin. In the wake of this development, CEOs of prominent banks resigned from their posts. Several of these banks have since raised fresh equity capital. Gradually, the financial markets are recovering their faith in the banks’ balance sheets.\n\nWhat the RBI did to the banks can be called a compulsory AQR. At this juncture, NBFCs are in no financial position to be subjected to a compulsory AQR. Instead, what should be considered is a carrot and stick approach called voluntary AQR wherein NBFCs who opt to subject themselves to the RBI’s AQR are given a lower regulatory capital requirement (RCR) once the RBI has cleansed their balance sheet. More specifically, the RCR can be lowered in a targeted manner by giving the lenders lower regulatory risk weights for lending to economically sensitive sectors such as SMEs, affordable housing (say, homes below Rs 50 lakhs) and auto (say vehicles below Rs 10 lakhs).\n\nGiven that the annual audit cycle is done, the RBI should be able to hire on a temporary basis, auditors from the large Tax &amp; Audit firms who specialise in auditing Banks &amp; Financial Services companies. Moreover, if the goal is to get the economy back on track, the RBI can focus the voluntary AQR exercise on the top 20 HFCs and the top 50 NBFCs [the smaller lenders are unlikely to be disbursing significant amounts of credit from the perspective of the economy].\n\nA voluntary AQR will allow the better run, cleaner NBFCs to signal their quality to the CP and CD market; in simple English, it will separate the wheat from the chaff. This in turn will encourage the mutual funds and large corporate treasuries to buy the CPs and CDs issued by the NBFCs who pass the voluntary AQR. These NBFCs will then be able to resume lending activity thus arresting the ongoing decline in economic growth.\n\nWhy should the better run NBFCs submit to voluntary AQR? Because of the carrot of lower regulatory capital requirements which in turn implies higher leverage, higher Return on Equity, better valuations and thus a chance to raise capital on better terms. To paraphrase the Godfather, that will be an offer which very few NBFCs will be able to refuse.\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ee4d9437a1&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The RBI Can Reverse the NBFC Crisis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1536-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 09:13:35', '2019-10-23 09:13:35', '', 1536, 'http://marcellus.in/1536-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(887, 1, '2019-10-23 09:04:04', '2019-10-23 09:04:04', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:7 June, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em><strong>We navigate day-to-day life, making decisions mostly based on our intuitive thinking, which is formed by years of experience in understanding and judging events. However, many important decisions in life, especially in investing, require thinking beyond the obvious, what is called System 2 thinking.</strong></em></p>\nThis summer, I went tiger sighting at one of India’s 50 odd Tiger Reserves. The mercury was breaching 45<sup>o</sup>C, but the safaris were fully booked, indicating the tiger’s popularity with enthusiasts and regular tourists alike. However, there was a short period of time in 2012, when tiger tourism had been banned by the Supreme Court, in response to a petition filed by an NGO. The contention was that tourism was detrimental to conservation efforts and keeping tourists away from the ‘core’ areas of the reserves will lead to improved habitats, and as a result, an increase in the tiger population.\n\nThere was also another school of thought which advocated the exact opposite. Since local populations depend on tourism for their livelihood, they are incentivised to not only preserve the forests, but also report activities such as poaching, illegal tree-cutting and so on. Tourism thus helps the tiger population thrive.\n\nMatters of conservation aside, this episode highlights how we often mistakenly identify the cause of a problem. Sometimes, what appears at first glance to be the cause is a completely unrelated issue, could be just a symptom or in the case of tiger tourism, turn out to be a possible solution to the problem. And what seems like a possible solution could sometimes worsen the problem. Like banning liquor to prevent alcoholism drives people to seek spurious sources, leading to more serious health concerns. Or waiving farm loans to relieve agrarian distress worsens a famer’s access to credit in the long term.\n\nIt is therefore crucial to look beyond the obvious, so that the cause of a problem is correctly identified, and the right solution applied. The same principle works in the case of investing, but with the objective reversed – one is looking for opportunities rather than problems. We try to identify the core drivers of success as well as the root causes of failures of a business. While this seems so basic that it shouldn’t even warrant a mention by an asset management firm like ours, it is quite difficult in practice. And at Marcellus we constantly remind ourselves of the risks of falling into the trap of getting swayed by what seems obvious at first glance.\n\nDaniel Kahneman, the Nobel prize winning psychologist describes this as System 1 and System 2 thinking. One is intuitive and the other, analytical. System 1 operates automatically and with practically no effort. For example, the answer to 2 + 2 would come to you in in instant. System 2 on the other hand requires some concentration and thinking. Consider this puzzle: A bat and ball together cost $1.1. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Kahneman’s (with Shane Frederick) research showed that most people tend to use System 1 thinking and answer that the ball costs 10 cents, which is wrong. A little effort (System 2 thinking) yields the correct answer.\n\nWe make decisions most of the times intuitively, and it has little consequence on the outcome. However, in managing investments, we need to frequently call upon our System 2 thinking. A civil EPC company reporting a consistent increase in operating margins should be a positive indicator to buy the stock, right? But how much of the margin expansion is due to aggressive revenue recognition or from liberal credit terms granted to customers? A commodity producer sees profitability improve despite a fall in volumes. How much of it is explained by better realisations (the obvious) and how much by the reduced volumes leading to a higher proportion of relatively lower-cost captive raw material consumed (the not-so-obvious)?\n\nOf the many ways in which we, at Marcellus try and avoid some of the traps in identifying success factors of a business, is constantly questioning ourselves as, well as colleagues, for all stock ideas under research. Our portfolio counsellors face a barrage of Whys, Hows and Whats in every team meeting, forcing all of us to collectively uncover, layer by layer, the secret sauce of a potential portfolio stock. A stock discussion in our research meeting could go like this:\n<em>Colleague A: General Insurance Company XYZ will earn RoE in excess of n% over the next 5 years</em>\n<em>Colleague B: Why?</em>\n<em>A: Because their combined ratio will go below 100% and investment yields will sustain at 9%</em>\n<em>C: Why will combined ratio improve?</em>\n<em>A: They have an experienced underwriting team and strong risk selection processes</em>\n<em>D: What is strong about the risk selection process?</em>\n<em>A: They use extensive data analytics to price risks and the sales team is penalised for poor underwriting experience, which incentivises them to select customers carefully</em>\n<em>B: What are the examples of use of data analytics and evidence of how it has helped in avoiding risks</em>\n\n<em>…these discussions thus go on till the team is convinced of the fundamental drivers of a company’s performance.</em>\n\nIdentifying the root cause of a company’s performance is thus the first important step in our investment analysis. The second, and equally important step is to understand whether the drivers of performance can be sustained over the long term or not – what is a defensible moat or an enduring competitive advantage? An IT company has been consistently growing profits and let’s say we identify its industry-leading attrition rate as one of the reasons for its success. We are then interested in knowing what in its HR policies helps keep employee retention at such high levels. And then, what is it that competitors cannot do to achieve the same level of success in retaining people.\n\nThe task of finding the core drivers of success and their sustainability is especially challenging for companies that are already successful. For example, in trying to identify the root cause of the low attrition of the same IT company mentioned above, we may seek feedback from employees or external HR consultants or competitors. The answers we’ll probably get are ‘we have an employee friendly culture’, ‘the company helps maintain work-life balance’, ‘management cares for people’, ‘best learning and training policies in the industry’ and so on. How should one interpret this feedback? Is the company offering the best training in the industry as an employee retention tool, which in turn is driving profits? Or that the company can afford to offer high quality training because it is so profitable? And if profits slow or decline in the future, will training budgets get cut? The same goes for culture – a bank’s culture of pursuing aggressive growth is admired when profits are rising. But when NPAs also rise, the same aggression is blamed for the downfall.\n\nPhil Rosenzweig captures these issues brilliantly in his book, ‘The Halo Effect’. He says, “Successful companies will almost always be described in terms of a clear strategy, good organization, strong corporate culture, and customer focus. But whether these things drive company performance, or whether they’re mainly attributions based on performance, is a different matter.”\n\nWhile our research process is much more extensive and covers more ground than explained above, we always start with the two essential steps – first, knowing what the key to success is, and then understanding if it can be replicated by others or not. Most often, the answers to these questions set us on the path to uncovering the enduring competitive advantage (or the lack of it) of a business and then eventually, the decision to hold it in our portfolios.\n\nSo, while we go back to pondering more on potential investment ideas, we would urge you to contemplate taking your next holiday in the wild and help save some tigers!\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em></p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong><em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em></li>\n</ol>', 'Marcellus: India\'s tiger boom is System 2 thinking exemplified', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '886-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 09:04:04', '2019-10-23 09:04:04', '', 886, 'http://marcellus.in/886-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(889, 1, '2019-06-08 15:59:38', '2019-06-08 15:59:38', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:8 June, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>British neuroscientist, Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, has shown that the human brain continues to learn, evolve and adapt throughout its life. Her work on the plasticity of the human brain is a tonic for those of us who are keen to learn new skills and push our minds to places it has not gone before. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The idea that the brain is somehow fixed in early childhood which was an idea that was very strongly believed up until recently, is completely wrong. There’s no evidence that the brain is somehow set and can’t change after early childhood. In fact, it goes through this very large development throughout adolescence and right into the 20s and 30s, and even after that it’s plastic forever; the plasticity is a baseline state no matter how old you are.” </em><strong>– Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College, London </strong>(Source: “The Adolescent Brain” in “Thinking” edited by John Brockman (2013))</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>A visit to the Strand bookstore changed my life</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Like most people around me, I grew up with the notion that the human brain can only grow and evolve through childhood and into adolescence. As per this school of thought by our early 20s our mental evolution maxes out. Like other believers of this school of thought, once I entered my 30s, I spent my weekends browsing magazines, watching movies and hanging out with friends &amp; family. I had convinced myself when our first child was born that since I had a demanding job, I deserved my weekend downtime.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then in 2013 during a visit to the massive Strand bookstore in New York, I stumbled upon a book of essays called “Thinking: the New Science of Decision Making” (edited by John Brockman, a literary agent and author specializing in scientific literature). These essays on how our mind works included an especially interesting piece by Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, a professor in Cognitive Neuroscience at University College, London.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ms Blakemore said in her essay that the human brain continues to evolve well into the 40s. Furthermore, she highlighted cutting edge research which shows that human brain – at all ages – is immensely plastic (i.e. flexible) insofar as it can learn new skills fairly rapidly and adapt to new challenges. In the subsequent weeks, I googled more of her research pieces and TED talks. Her work not only inspired the last chapter of my first bestselling book <em>“Gurus of Chaos: Modern India’s Money Masters”</em> (2014), it also changed the way I view my ability to develop my 43-year old mind further.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The human brain says “Use it or Lose it”</strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In her first full length book <em>“Inventing Ourselves: The Secret Life of the Teenage Brain”</em> (2018), Ms Blakemore has now summarised for non-scientists like me what cutting edge science has to say about the trainability and the plasticity of the human brain regardless of edge. Her work has immense relevance for professionals like us and for our children.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, Ms Blakemore reiterates that <em>“Even though </em><strong><em>brain development</em></strong><em> seems to level off at some point, the brain never stops being capable of change. </em><strong><em>Plasticity</em></strong><em> – the brain’s capacity to adapt to changing environmental stimuli – is in action all the time, whenever learning takes place, and there’s no age limit on it. Plasticity enables us to learn and we can learn new information at any age.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ms Blakemore gives compelling examples in her book of how neuroscientists have figured out the plasticity of the human brain: <em>“Brain changes can be rapid – even occurring over a matter of days. In a study of how the sensory and motor areas of the adult brain can adapt according to how they are used, adults who were new to piano learned a simple piano exercise for hours a day for five days. The area of the brain that controls finger movements (the motor cortex) increased in volume and became more active in these participants compared with a control group who had not learned the exercise.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, Ms Blakemore highlights repeatedly in her book that the way the brain seems to have a strong tendency of “Use it or Lose it” i.e. if we don’t exercise certain parts of our brains often enough, those parts of our brain seem to regress: <em>“A number of studies have looked at learning to juggle. One of these studies carried out by Arne May and colleagues at the University of Regensburg in Germany scanned people’s brains before and after they had practised juggling three balls every day for three months. At the end of this time, two regions of the jugglers’ brains that process visual motion information had grown in size. But after the passage of another three months, during which the same people had not done any juggling, these regions had returned to their previous size.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, Ms Blakemore gives us a more nuanced picture of how the brain learns to adapt to the world around us. She says that there are two different types of plasticity: <em>“</em><strong><em>Experience-dependent plasticity</em></strong><em>…is the brain’s ability to adapt to new information and underlies new learning at any age.”</em> The brain retains this type of plasticity throughout our lives. <em>“Experience-dependent plasticity in the adult brain generally occurs as a function of usage. In other words, the adult brain continuously adapts to changes in its environment. Learning to play tennis or a musical instrument, learning new vocabulary or new computer software; all these are examples of tasks that require experience-dependent plasticity. There is no age limit to this kind of learning, which can and does occur throughout life.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">On the other hand, <em>“</em><strong><em>Experience-expectant plasticity</em></strong><em> is the readiness of the brain to respond to sensory input from its environment at the appropriate stage of development…An example of early experience-expectant plasticity…is the mechanism by which an infant learns the sound of his or her language…For some functions to develop normally, such as recognising the sound of one’s own language, the baby must receive appropriate sensory input from its environment at the appropriate stage of development…If a child is deprived of a particular kind of input (say, speech) during that important period, it will be difficult for that function…to develop normally”.</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nWhether we are managing our clients’ monies or our company or indeed our lives, Ms Blakemore’s work should spur us to keep learning and keep pushing our minds. Science now shows that age is no bar to hitting the high mental notes even as we grow older. Warren Buffett is in his 80s and Charlie Munger is in his 90s. Both are going strong. My paternal grandfather, a solicitor in Kolkata, passed away a few years ago aged 101. Until the age of 90, he was meeting clients to resolve their Income Tax issues. Until the age of 80, he was the President of his profession’s trade body in Kolkata. Further afield, we can see that the leading fiction writers in English are 60+. In non-fiction, Jared Diamond wrote his pathbreaking book “Guns, Germs &amp; Steel” in his 60s.</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you combine what Ms Blakemore is saying regarding the plasticity of our brain with Malcolm Gladwell’s ’10,000 hours rule’ i.e. with 10,000 hours of deliberate, purposeful practice almost anyone can become an expert in her chosen field (see “Outliers” (2008)), you cannot but walk away with a lifelong commitment to learning and growing your capabilities. And then if you consider how medical advances are allowing us to live longer, you might end up viewing our era as a golden period for those who see life as a never-ending stint at university.</span></em></p>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'Marcellus: Your All-Powerful Plastic Brain', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-your-all-powerful-plastic-brain', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:20:00', '2019-11-13 12:20:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=889', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1985, 1, '2019-11-13 12:30:07', '2019-11-13 12:30:07', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:14 June, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>High flown theories of Finance &amp; Investing don’t work in India. What works in the Indian stockmarket is risk minimisation. We minimise risks associated with accounting fraud, with topline &amp; bottomline volatility and with liquidity. In other words, we invest in clean monopolies selling essential products. </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Sophisticated investment literature can be damaging for your wealth</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There are many delusional theories in Finance. One of these is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) which contends that since stock prices efficiently discount all the available information in the market, it is impossible to beat the market. Another is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) which claims that the returns from a stock will be directly proportional to the systematic risk (or beta) represented by the stock.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Whilst Warren Buffett’s rubbishing of the EMH is well-known (see<a href=\"https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/sites/valueinvesting/files/files/Buffett1984.pdf</a>), thanks to the pseudo-science peddled by business schools, CAPM is still taught in classrooms across the world including in India, a country where CAPM is even less applicable than it is in America.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">CAPM says that returns are proportional to risk, it follows therefore that the only way you can generate higher returns in the market is by taking more risk. Basis this elegant theory, wealth managers lead their clients down the garden path towards high risk products whilst selling the delusion that higher risk will lead to higher returns.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Crushing risk is the key to generating higher returns</strong>\nOur decade of working and investing in India has led us to conclude that you need to minimise four types of risks if you want to generate steady &amp; healthy investment returns in the Indian stockmarket:</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Accounting risk</strong>: Whilst we all now know how prominent public and private sector banks in India fudged their NPA figures for years on end until the RBI’s Asset Quality Review forced them to come clean, the same problem exists with several housing finance companies (who don’t come under the RBI’s purview). The accounts of a leading cement manufacturer don’t stack up. Neither does the annual report of high flying retailer make sense. Ditto with a prominent petchem company and a prominent pharma company. In fact, the majority of the companies in the BSE500 have annual reports which don’t pass scrutiny. Using ten forensic accounting ratios and a financial model which contains time series data on 1300 of India’s largest listed companies, we seek to identify that 20% of the Indian stockmarket whose books are actually believable.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Topline risk</strong>: At US$2000, India’s per capita income is still very low (less than half the level of Sri Lanka and a quarter of the level of South East Asian countries like Thailand and Malaysia). As a result, beyond the basic essentials of life – FMCG products, pharma products, basic apparel – most other products in India are luxury items for most Indians. As a result, even for small cars or entry-level two-wheelers, demand in India fluctuates wildly. Eg. Maruti Suzuki typically experiences 5-6 years of strong demand growth (growth well above 15% per annum) followed by 3-4 years of famine (growth well below 5% per annum). Whilst its cross-cycle average growth tends to be around 12%, the stock price volatility reflects the volatility of Maruti’s topline growth. In contrast, a company selling essential products like Asian Paints or Marico, tends to see steady revenue growth – between 10-20% per annum – pretty much every year. Investing in companies selling essential products in India therefore reduces risk.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Bottomline risk</strong>: As the cost of capital is still pretty high for India, it is rare to find Indian companies who spend heavily on genuine R&amp;D. Understandably therefore, the Indian economy is characterized by rapid imitation – one company spots a niche (say, gold loan finance) and within a decade it has a 100 imitators. This rapid new entry squeezes the profitability of the first mover and thus creates risk for its shareholders. In order to reduce such risk we look for sectors where over extended periods of time, 1 or 2 companies cumulatively account for 80% of the sector’s profit pie. Such monopolies have lower volatility in their profit margin.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>4. Liquidity risk</strong>: India is the least liquid of the world’s top ten stockmarkets largely because promoters own more than half of the shares outstanding in the Indian market. As a result of this, beyond the top 30 or so stocks in India, liquidity – measured by average daily traded volume (ADV) – drops rapidly. By the time you are in the lower reaches of the BSE100, ADV is well below $5m per day. Such low liquidity creates stock price gyrations as investors go through their cycles of election induced euphoria followed by accounting fraud induced panic. Tilting the portfolio towards liquid stocks reduces this risk.</span></em></p>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over the past decade another corollary of CAPM – smart beta - has become fashionable. Smart beta practitioners (no pun intended) believe that there are various types of systematic risk embedded in stock prices eg. size (i.e. small caps should outperform large caps), value (i.e. cheaper stocks should outperform more expensive stocks), momentum (i.e. stocks which are doing well should continue doing well), etc. Basically, what smart beta practitioners are saying is that investors who take any of the four risks outlined in the preceding section should be rewarded by the market for taking that extra risk. That line of thinking does not work in India.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In my book <em>“Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em> (2018), I have shown that identifying stocks with low accounting risk, low topline risk and low bottomline risk using a simple quantitative filter (revenue growth should be in double digits <u>and</u> ROCE should be above 15% every year for ten consecutive years) consistently generates returns in the vicinity of 20% per annum with share price volatility half that of the Nifty. Even without adjusting for risk (volatility), you are far better off investing in this portfolio rather than in the Nifty. In fact, you are far better off investing in this portfolio – akin to our Consistent Compounder Portfolio (CCP) – relative to almost every other asset class in India (including real estate, private equity and government bonds) – see chart above. You do NOT have to take extra risk in India (or load up on beta) to get healthy returns.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Why does this simple filter-based approach to creating a CCP work so consistently? Because the CCP basically seeks to minimise the four risks outlined in the preceding section. If a company is able to grow revenues at double digits every year for ten consecutive years, it is almost certainly selling an essential product which will be in demand in both economic booms and busts. Secondly, if a company is able to generate ROCE above 15% every year for ten consecutive years, it is highly likely to be a dominant/moated franchise. (The vast majority of the Nifty companies have not generated an ROCE of 15% even once in the past ten years.)</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Less than 15 companies make it through the two filters described above. And because we are seeking to minimise risk rather than chase returns, the occasional period of underperformance (see our recent newsletter:<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\">https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf</a>) does not cause us to lose sleep. We are happy crushing risk rather than chasing the ephemeral fantasies of high returns.</span></em></p>\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Crushing Risk is More Rewarding than Chasing Returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '891-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:30:07', '2019-11-13 12:30:07', '', 891, 'http://marcellus.in/891-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(892, 1, '2019-06-14 14:07:04', '2019-06-14 14:07:04', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:8 June, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>British neuroscientist, Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, has shown that the human brain continues to learn, evolve and adapt throughout its life. Her work on the plasticity of the human brain is a tonic for those of us who are keen to learn new skills and push our minds to places it has not gone before. </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“The idea that the brain is somehow fixed in early childhood which was an idea that was very strongly believed up until recently, is completely wrong. There’s no evidence that the brain is somehow set and can’t change after early childhood. In fact, it goes through this very large development throughout adolescence and right into the 20s and 30s, and even after that it’s plastic forever; the plasticity is a baseline state no matter how old you are.” </em><strong>– Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Professor of Cognitive Neuroscience, University College, London </strong>(Source: “The Adolescent Brain” in “Thinking” edited by John Brockman (2013))</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>A visit to the Strand bookstore changed my life</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Like most people around me, I grew up with the notion that the human brain can only grow and evolve through childhood and into adolescence. As per this school of thought by our early 20s our mental evolution maxes out. Like other believers of this school of thought, once I entered my 30s, I spent my weekends browsing magazines, watching movies and hanging out with friends &amp; family. I had convinced myself when our first child was born that since I had a demanding job, I deserved my weekend downtime.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Then in 2013 during a visit to the massive Strand bookstore in New York, I stumbled upon a book of essays called “Thinking: the New Science of Decision Making” (edited by John Brockman, a literary agent and author specializing in scientific literature). These essays on how our mind works included an especially interesting piece by Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, a professor in Cognitive Neuroscience at University College, London.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ms Blakemore said in her essay that the human brain continues to evolve well into the 40s. Furthermore, she highlighted cutting edge research which shows that human brain – at all ages – is immensely plastic (i.e. flexible) insofar as it can learn new skills fairly rapidly and adapt to new challenges. In the subsequent weeks, I googled more of her research pieces and TED talks. Her work not only inspired the last chapter of my first bestselling book <em>“Gurus of Chaos: Modern India’s Money Masters”</em> (2014), it also changed the way I view my ability to develop my 43-year old mind further.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The human brain says “Use it or Lose it”</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In her first full length book <em>“Inventing Ourselves: The Secret Life of the Teenage Brain”</em> (2018), Ms Blakemore has now summarised for non-scientists like me what cutting edge science has to say about the trainability and the plasticity of the human brain regardless of edge. Her work has immense relevance for professionals like us and for our children.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Firstly, Ms Blakemore reiterates that <em>“Even though </em><strong><em>brain development</em></strong><em> seems to level off at some point, the brain never stops being capable of change. </em><strong><em>Plasticity</em></strong><em> – the brain’s capacity to adapt to changing environmental stimuli – is in action all the time, whenever learning takes place, and there’s no age limit on it. Plasticity enables us to learn and we can learn new information at any age.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Ms Blakemore gives compelling examples in her book of how neuroscientists have figured out the plasticity of the human brain: <em>“Brain changes can be rapid – even occurring over a matter of days. In a study of how the sensory and motor areas of the adult brain can adapt according to how they are used, adults who were new to piano learned a simple piano exercise for hours a day for five days. The area of the brain that controls finger movements (the motor cortex) increased in volume and became more active in these participants compared with a control group who had not learned the exercise.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Secondly, Ms Blakemore highlights repeatedly in her book that the way the brain seems to have a strong tendency of “Use it or Lose it” i.e. if we don’t exercise certain parts of our brains often enough, those parts of our brain seem to regress: <em>“A number of studies have looked at learning to juggle. One of these studies carried out by Arne May and colleagues at the University of Regensburg in Germany scanned people’s brains before and after they had practised juggling three balls every day for three months. At the end of this time, two regions of the jugglers’ brains that process visual motion information had grown in size. But after the passage of another three months, during which the same people had not done any juggling, these regions had returned to their previous size.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Thirdly, Ms Blakemore gives us a more nuanced picture of how the brain learns to adapt to the world around us. She says that there are two different types of plasticity: <em>“</em><strong><em>Experience-dependent plasticity</em></strong><em>…is the brain’s ability to adapt to new information and underlies new learning at any age.”</em> The brain retains this type of plasticity throughout our lives. <em>“Experience-dependent plasticity in the adult brain generally occurs as a function of usage. In other words, the adult brain continuously adapts to changes in its environment. Learning to play tennis or a musical instrument, learning new vocabulary or new computer software; all these are examples of tasks that require experience-dependent plasticity. There is no age limit to this kind of learning, which can and does occur throughout life.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">On the other hand, <em>“</em><strong><em>Experience-expectant plasticity</em></strong><em> is the readiness of the brain to respond to sensory input from its environment at the appropriate stage of development…An example of early experience-expectant plasticity…is the mechanism by which an infant learns the sound of his or her language…For some functions to develop normally, such as recognising the sound of one’s own language, the baby must receive appropriate sensory input from its environment at the appropriate stage of development…If a child is deprived of a particular kind of input (say, speech) during that important period, it will be difficult for that function…to develop normally”.</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\nWhether we are managing our clients’ monies or our company or indeed our lives, Ms Blakemore’s work should spur us to keep learning and keep pushing our minds. Science now shows that age is no bar to hitting the high mental notes even as we grow older. Warren Buffett is in his 80s and Charlie Munger is in his 90s. Both are going strong. My paternal grandfather, a solicitor in Kolkata, passed away a few years ago aged 101. Until the age of 90, he was meeting clients to resolve their Income Tax issues. Until the age of 80, he was the President of his profession’s trade body in Kolkata. Further afield, we can see that the leading fiction writers in English are 60+. In non-fiction, Jared Diamond wrote his pathbreaking book “Guns, Germs &amp; Steel” in his 60s.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you combine what Ms Blakemore is saying regarding the plasticity of our brain with Malcolm Gladwell’s ’10,000 hours rule’ i.e. with 10,000 hours of deliberate, purposeful practice almost anyone can become an expert in her chosen field (see “Outliers” (2008)), you cannot but walk away with a lifelong commitment to learning and growing your capabilities. And then if you consider how medical advances are allowing us to live longer, you might end up viewing our era as a golden period for those who see life as a never-ending stint at university.</span></em></p>\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e7301faba9&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'Marcellus: Your All-Powerful Plastic Brain', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '889-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-14 14:07:04', '2019-06-14 14:07:04', '', 889, 'http://marcellus.in/889-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2154, 1, '2019-11-03 03:59:20', '2019-11-03 03:59:20', 'This epic takedown of WeWork will go down in the history of journalism as one of the defining pieces which captured the craziness of the post-QE world. Matt Levine has written a rip-roaring piece designed to enliven even the most down-at-heel start-up owner.\r\nThe article begins on a business-like note: <em>“A lot of kids starting at Harvard Business School next fall will be hanging up posters of Adam Neumann in their dorm rooms. Neumann, the founder of WeWork, will walk away from this corporate bonfire with a billion dollars and a bunch of fancy houses. His great-grandchildren will be prominent philanthropists with their names on museums and universities, the strange origin of their fortunes long forgotten. Neumann did a certain sort of capitalism—one with some cachet at HBS!—as well as anyone has ever done it… Neumann created a company that destroyed value at a blistering pace and nonetheless extracted a billion dollars for himself. He lit $10 billion of SoftBank’s money on fire and then went back to them and demanded a 10% commission....”</em>\r\nThe Levine steps on the gas and says: <em>“My very favorite part of the Adam Neumann legend might be the story of his first encounter with Masayoshi Son, who runs SoftBank Group Corp. and invests its vast piles of money. (One insane aspect of this encounter is that it happened in 2017. A busy two years!) “Mr. Neumann has told others that Mr. Son appreciated how he was crazy—but thought that he needed to be crazier.” I like to imagine that conversation with the hindsight of the last few months:</em>\r\n<em>Son: What does your company do?</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: We lease office buildings, spruce up the space and sublet it in small chunks.</em>\r\n<em>Son: Hmm I invest in visionary tech stuff, this doesn’t really sound like my thing.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: Did I mention we are a state of consciousness. A generation of interconnected emotionally intelligent entrepreneurs.</em>\r\n<em>Son: Okay yeah that’s more like—</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: The world’s first physical social network. We encompass all aspects of people’s lives, in both physical and digital worlds.</em>\r\n<em>Son: You’re crazy! I love it! But could you be, say, ten times crazier?</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: You’re going to invest $10 billion in my company, which I will use as kindling to light the whole edifice on fire, and then when we are both standing in the ashes you will pay me another billion dollars to walk away while I laugh at you.</em>\r\n<em>Son: All my life I have dreamed of meeting someone as crazy as you, but I never really believed this day would come.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: I’m gonna use your money to buy a mansion with a room shaped like a guitar, where I will play the world’s tiniest violin after all your money is gone.</em>\r\n<em>Son: YES PUNCH ME IN THE FACE.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: Also I’ll rename the company “We” and charge it $6 million for the name.</em>\r\n<em>Son: RUN ME OVER WITH A TRUCK.”</em>\r\nAfter this the article gets even better as Levine overlays sarcasm and analysis in equal measure. Wouldn’t it be fun if Indian crony capitalists were also subjected to the Matt Levine treatment?', 'How Do You Like We Now', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-do-you-like-we-now', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:02:05', '2019-11-05 04:02:05', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2154', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(894, 1, '2019-06-16 07:09:11', '2019-06-16 07:09:11', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.       <strong>Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><strong>Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.       Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.       Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.       </strong><strong>Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:09:11', '2019-06-16 07:09:11', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(896, 1, '2019-06-16 07:12:38', '2019-06-16 07:12:38', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> 4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5.      Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> </strong><strong><strong>6.      Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:12:38', '2019-06-16 07:12:38', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(895, 1, '2019-06-16 07:10:22', '2019-06-16 07:10:22', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n1.       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>2.       </em><p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3.       <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4.      <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5.      <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6.      <p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> </strong><strong>Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:10:22', '2019-06-16 07:10:22', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(897, 1, '2019-06-16 07:13:45', '2019-06-16 07:13:45', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5.      Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> </strong><strong><strong>6.      Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:13:45', '2019-06-16 07:13:45', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(899, 1, '2019-06-16 07:15:37', '2019-06-16 07:15:37', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5.      Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>6.      Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:15:37', '2019-06-16 07:15:37', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(898, 1, '2019-06-16 07:14:21', '2019-06-16 07:14:21', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\nAuthor: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\nAs everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Greg Bartalos\r\nSource: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\nNew York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\nAuthor: Claudia Hammond\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\nIn our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\nSteve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5.      Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\nAuthor: Devin Gordon\r\nSource: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\nIt is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> </strong><strong><strong><strong>6.      Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\nAuthor: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\nSource: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\nLast year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:14:21', '2019-06-16 07:14:21', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(900, 1, '2019-06-16 07:27:46', '2019-06-16 07:27:46', '<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Greg Bartalos\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Claudia Hammond\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Zachary Crockett\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5. Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Devin Gordon\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>6. Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:27:46', '2019-06-16 07:27:46', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(901, 1, '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '<em>Published on: 12th May, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Greg Bartalos\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Claudia Hammond\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Zachary Crockett\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5. Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Devin Gordon\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>6. Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '2019-06-16 07:34:04', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(902, 1, '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '<em>Published on: 16th June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>This week’s reads focus on how data analytics helped Liverpool succeed, how Ritholtz could be revolutionising marketing in wealth management, the benefits of reading fiction, a restaurateur\'s run-in with Yelp, how a wealth manager is inculcating frugality among NBA stars and the emergence of sober bars as people go teetotaling.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef89c34615&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>1. Long read: How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Bruce Shoenfeld\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44db7c5e95&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/magazine/soccer-data-liverpool.html </a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n<em>“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.</em>\r\n<em>Graham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”</em>\r\n<em>Graham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”</em>\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: <em>“Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.</em>\r\n<em>Analytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>2. Long read: Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing - or Just Wasting Time?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Greg Bartalos\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: RIA Intel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=36eaed0947&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.riaintel.com/article/b1fn730zgdqvf9/josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. <em>“Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”</em>\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. <em>“In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?...</em> <em>Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”</em>\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. <em>“Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown. </em>\r\n<em>In sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.</em>\r\n<em>Six years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”</em>\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “<em>Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>3. Long read: Does reading fiction make us better people?</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Claudia Hammond\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d165268254&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190523-does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, <em>“is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.</em>\r\n<em>Having said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.</em>\r\n<em>To follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”</em>\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, <em>“At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.</em>\r\n<em>People who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story? </em>\r\n<em>The experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: </em><strong><em>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</em></strong><em>.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>4. Short read: The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Zachary Crockett\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d96c97c6b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/botto-bistro-1-star-yelp/</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n<em>“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Edsel Ford Fong</em></a><em> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Hall of Shame</em></a><em> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>FAQ</em></a><em> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.</em>\r\n<em>To loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”</em>\r\n<em>One morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)</em>\r\n<em>….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.</em>\r\n<em>In a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”</em>\r\n<em>“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>5. Short read: Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Devin Gordon\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: New York Times (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b2d7cbb669&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/business/nba-wealth-manager-klay-thompson-joe-mclean.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star -  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n<em>“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.</em>\r\n<em>Managing basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy. </em>\r\n<em>….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.</em>\r\n<em>…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"> <strong>6. Short read: People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the \'sober curious\'</strong>\r\n<strong>Author</strong>: Sara Ashley O’Brien\r\n<strong>Source</strong>: CNN (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71cbe6486&amp;e=5648501957\">https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/08/tech/alcohol-alternative-sober-curious/index.html</a>)\r\n</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n<em>“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.</em>\r\n<em>They are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.</em>\r\n<em>…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They\'re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the \"sober curious,\" people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.</em>\r\n<em>Kin\'s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called \"High Rhode.\" It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics. </em>\r\n<em>…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is \"Murder Your Thirst.\" Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, \"This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.\"</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they\'re downing simple H2O.</em>\r\n<em>The original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you\'re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em></span></em></p>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '16th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '893-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '2019-06-16 07:34:18', '', 893, 'http://marcellus.in/893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(903, 1, '2019-06-21 14:28:00', '2019-06-21 14:28:00', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:21 June, 2019</span></em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>In an insightful book written 40 years ago, French philosopher, Rene Girard, explains how</strong> <strong>in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other. That in turn leads to conflict &amp; grief which in turn creates the need for scapegoats who can act as a lightning rod for our grievances. Great leaders are those who can game this construct by using religion, culture, and other people as scapegoats. </strong></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…in order to succeed one must take up an old problem, one not fashionable at the moment, and radically rethink it…there is nothing, or next to nothing, in human behaviour that is not learned, and all learning is based on imitation. If human beings suddenly cased imitating, all forms of culture would vanish. Neurologists remind us frequently that the human brain is an enormous imitation machine.” – <strong>Rene Girard</strong> in “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World” (1978) </em></span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rene Girard, an original thinker with powerful insights</strong>\r\nIn 1978, Rene Girard published a remarkable book called “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World”. The book, written in the form of a dialogue between the philosopher, Girard, and two psychologists provides deep insights into how societies evolve, compete, fight and resolve conflict. Those insights in turn have implications for how we think about countries and companies.\r\nGirard’s hypothesis unfolds sequentially:</span></em></p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">1. Human beings have an innate desire to compete with each other and rise in the world. At the outset, this desire to compete and create new things, conquer new frontiers is a healthy thing as it spurs creativity, innovation and differentiation.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">2. Then a complication kicks in because human beings, being social animals. learn from each other and copy each other. As a result, we start coveting the same things as others. For example, in isolation I have no incentive to covet a diamond which to my mind is a worthless stone. However, if 20 people around me begin coveting diamonds (or admission for their children into a certain school or flats on Altamount Road or holiday villas in Goa), then I too am likely to covet the same. Girard calls this <strong>“mimesis”</strong> i.e. we mimic each other in our desires. Notice that it is almost certain that we will covet things which are scarce in supply; hence diamonds are more coveted than water (at least until water becomes scarce) even though water is far more useful for us than diamonds.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">3. As hoards of people start seeking the same things, competition (or mimesis as Girard calls it) intensifies. Then, in the heat of the battle, differentiation takes a back seat as all of us strive to outdo each other in acquiring these symbols of prestige. The logical escalation of this competitive battle is aggression vis a vis each other which sometimes culminates in violence.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">4. During this period of intense competition, as unhappiness increases and grievances multiply, society seeks a scapegoat. The scapegoat is deemed to be responsible for all grievances although, in reality, the grievances arise from mimesis. The scapegoat can a be a person (see next bullet) or a community (eg. Jews in Germany in the 1930s, Jews in Hungary today, Muslims in India today, Latino immigrants in Trump’s America).</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">5. Punishment is then meted out to the scapegoat so as to assuage the masses. In extreme cases, the scapegoat is murdered (eg. Jesus Christ, Julius Caesar). In less extreme cases, the scapegoat serves out a period of punishment (eg. Ram &amp; Sita going into exile, ditto for the Pandavas). Figures in positions of power &amp; influence – Kings in the ancient world, CEOs, Presidents and senior politicians today – partly exist to serve as scapegoats.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">6. Since powerful leaders realise that they can be readily sacrificed as scapegoats, they seek to institutionalise ways such that they can distribute the heat arising from society’s grievances (eg. by creating a Board of Directors or a Cabinet or a Parliament) whilst also increasing the supply of potential scapegoats (eg. the Vice Presidents of a firm, various Ministers and civil servants in a Government). A skillful leader who understands the above dynamic, moves preemptively to sacrifice a scapegoat other than herself to address society’s grievances.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">7. Religion serves an important purpose insofar it helps our leaders quell grievances with reduced conflict and/or smaller scapegoats. Similarly, in corporate life “culture” serves an important purpose as it forces people to focus on the bigger picture rather than the next promotion round. Ditto for nationalism at the level of the country.</p>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nGirard’s central thesis of mimesis (i.e. in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other) leading to conflict &amp; grief and that in turn creating the need for scapegoats is as simple as it is powerful. We can understand its implications at several levels:</span></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">At the level of the individual, we set ourselves up for a life of strife and unhappiness if we cannot have desires and goals which are different from the people around us. The more differentiated our desires and goals, the lower the chances of us spending our lives fighting empty battles for wealth, power &amp; prestige.However, if we do decide to aspire for the same things that many other people want then we have to realise that our success, our ascendancy creates the risk that we ourselves become the scapegoat.</li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">You can apply this thinking at the level of the company as well. The less differentiated a company’s offering/business model, the more likely that it will be engaged in intense competition with others. Such competition between similar companies is likely to result in almost all the player generating ROCE lower than their cost of capital. That in turn will trigger lobbying i.e. certain companies will push the Government to make somebody a scapegoat. A picture perfect case study of this is how the telecom industry in India has evolved over the past 20 years – all the companies essentially the same product/business model and a result none of them has ever been able generate ROCE above their cost of capital. Their almost daily efforts at lobbying in New Delhi led to the 2G scam and the arrests which followed thereafter.</li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">For us to generate healthy returns for our clients we have to look for companies which are either utterly dominant in their industries with Himalayan barriers to entry around then (eg. Asian Paints, Nestle, Pidilite, Relaxo) or look for companies whose products/business models are highly differentiated and hence won’t attract competition for a considerable period of time.  You will hear more from us on the latter theme in the months to come.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nYou can also apply Girard’s philosophy at the level of the country but that subject is best discussed on a different day and probably in a different forum.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      http://marcellus.in/resources/ </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-things-hidden-since-the-foundation-of-the-world', '', '', '2019-11-05 09:50:09', '2019-11-05 09:50:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=903', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(934, 1, '2019-06-21 09:58:50', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10\nyears on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.\n\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital\nemployed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates\nUS grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs\nsubstantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\n\n[wpsm_comparison_table id=\"1\" class=\"\"]\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-907 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-1st-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"194\" />\n\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table\nand chart below).\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-908 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-2nd-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"672\" height=\"292\" />\n\nSource: Companies, Ace Equity; ROE used for the chart on the left is a rolling 5 year average ROE with x-axis depicting the year in which the 5 year period ended\n\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often\nseen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each\nunit of capital employed. However, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that\nthey can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\n\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth,\nconsistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms ‘Consistent Compounders’.\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like\nthat of a government bond!\n\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average\nROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan\nUnilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this\nsame period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints\nleads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\n\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households Our PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these\nstocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless\ndrive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\n\nGruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception During the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated\n8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and\nKarnataka.\n\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive\nadvantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and\nc) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\n\nOn the evening of 7th January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh\nFinance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment\nCommittee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8th January.\n\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8th January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\n\nPerformance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31st January 2019 Given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more\nthan one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-911 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-4th-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"329\" />\n\nNote: The above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated\nby the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved. This communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Title 1', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2019-06-21 09:58:50', '2019-06-21 09:58:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=934', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(936, 1, '2019-06-21 10:24:45', '2019-06-21 10:24:45', '', 'table-1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'table-1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:26:59', '2019-06-21 10:26:59', '', 937, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/table-1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(937, 1, '2019-06-21 10:28:31', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10\nyears on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.\n\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital\nemployed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates\nUS grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs\nsubstantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-907 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-1st-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"194\" />\n\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table\nand chart below).\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-908 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-2nd-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"672\" height=\"292\" />\n\nSource: Companies, Ace Equity; ROE used for the chart on the left is a rolling 5 year average ROE with x-axis depicting the year in which the 5 year period ended\n\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often\nseen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each\nunit of capital employed. However, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that\nthey can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below is probably the best example of such firms.\n\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth,\nconsistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms ‘Consistent Compounders’.\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like\nthat of a government bond!\n\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average\nROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challenge is that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan\nUnilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this\nsame period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints\nleads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\n\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households Our PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these\nstocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks, FMCG, apparel, footwear, diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentless\ndrive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\n\nGruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception During the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated\n8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and\nKarnataka.\n\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive\nadvantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and\nc) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh understand its borrowers better.\n\nOn the evening of 7th January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh\nFinance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment\nCommittee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morning of 8th January.\n\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8th January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\n\nPerformance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31st January 2019 Given the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more\nthan one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-936 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/table-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"881\" height=\"460\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-911 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/feb-newsletter-4th-image.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"329\" />\n\nNote: The above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated\nby the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved. This communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Title -1', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:28:31', '2019-06-21 10:28:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=937', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(939, 1, '2018-10-21 10:37:52', '2018-10-21 10:37:52', 'This investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment.', 'The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-big-hack-how-china-used-a-tiny-chip-to-infiltrate-us-companies-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:55:25', '2019-11-13 11:55:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=939', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(940, 1, '2019-06-21 10:37:52', '2019-06-21 10:37:52', 'This investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment.', 'The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '939-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:37:52', '2019-06-21 10:37:52', '', 939, 'http://marcellus.in/939-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(941, 1, '2018-10-21 10:39:23', '2018-10-21 10:39:23', 'In the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people.\r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.', 'Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:53:53', '2019-11-13 11:53:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=941', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(942, 1, '2019-06-21 10:39:23', '2019-06-21 10:39:23', 'In the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people.\r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.', 'Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '941-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:39:23', '2019-06-21 10:39:23', '', 941, 'http://marcellus.in/941-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(943, 1, '2018-10-21 10:41:20', '2018-10-21 10:41:20', 'One of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.', 'In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'in-the-himalayas-living-the-crisis-that-the-ipcc-report-warns-off-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:52:42', '2019-11-13 11:52:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=943', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(944, 1, '2019-06-21 10:41:20', '2019-06-21 10:41:20', 'One of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.', 'In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '943-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:41:20', '2019-06-21 10:41:20', '', 943, 'http://marcellus.in/943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(945, 1, '2018-10-21 10:42:48', '2018-10-21 10:42:48', 'Some of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did.\r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”</em>', 'Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dodgy-data-makes-it-hard-to-judge-modis-job-promises-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:51:32', '2019-11-13 11:51:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=945', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(946, 1, '2019-06-21 10:42:48', '2019-06-21 10:42:48', 'Some of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did.\r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”</em>', 'Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '945-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:42:48', '2019-06-21 10:42:48', '', 945, 'http://marcellus.in/945-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(947, 1, '2018-10-21 10:45:16', '2018-10-21 10:45:16', 'In his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>', 'The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-case-for-drip-feed-investing-is-plausible-but-costs-more-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:49:42', '2019-11-13 11:49:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=947', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(948, 1, '2019-06-21 10:45:16', '2019-06-21 10:45:16', 'In his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>', 'The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '947-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:45:16', '2019-06-21 10:45:16', '', 947, 'http://marcellus.in/947-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(949, 1, '2018-10-21 10:47:52', '2018-10-21 10:47:52', 'To end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-tech-employees-are-pushing-silicon-valley-to-put-ethics-before-profit-2', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:47:58', '2019-11-13 11:47:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=949', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(950, 1, '2019-06-21 10:47:52', '2019-06-21 10:47:52', 'To end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '949-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 10:47:52', '2019-06-21 10:47:52', '', 949, 'http://marcellus.in/949-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1433, 1, '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '<em>Published on: 23rd June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on a fascinatingly eccentric comic novelist, effect of online gaming on male bonding, impact of modern life on the human skeleton, liquidity risk taken by fund managers, heartbeat as a unique human identifier, and why hybrids are better than battery electric vehicles at reducing carbon emissions.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bc362fa8b&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The best comic novel ever written?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Graham\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=38113c1044&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20190521-is-this-the-best-shaggy-dog-story-ever-written</a>)\r\nWritten in the middle of the 18<sup>th</sup> century by Lawrence Stern, an Anglican Parish priest who wanted to become famous, the autobiography of the fictional character Tristram Shandy, “The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman” is a wildly original bestseller which influenced some of the greatest writers of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The book was a smash hit upon publication. <em>““The first two volumes were wildly popular,”  Judith Hawley, an expert on 18th-Century literature, tells BBC Culture. “So much so that the name Tristram Shandy entered popular culture. There was a lot of branded merchandise; race horses were named after him; lots of imitation novels. It became a marketing phenomenon.””</em>\r\nSo what exactly did Sterne do which marked this books out as one of the most original books ever written?\r\nFirstly, the chronology used in the book is deliberately messed up: <em>“to describe them as a sequence belies the screwy time scheme of the book, which is by turns stretched and squashed, folded back on itself and internally disordered. The author’s preface turns up in the third volume, when Tristram’s mother is giving birth (to him) and the Shandy men have dozed off: “All my heroes are off my hands; – ’tis the first time I have had a moment to spare, – and I’ll make use of it, and write my preface”. The end, “Finis,” comes at the close of the fourth. In the sixth volume, as if regretting his tendency to digress, Tristram suggests he will get on with the story from them on “in a tolerable straight line.” He immediately jumps to a travelogue in France. At one point, Tristram notes it is a year since he started writing, and he’s not even a day old in the book. He’s falling ever further behind.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Sterne creates a narrative style which would nearly 200 years later (once it was used by James Joyce and Virgina Woolf) be called the “stream of consciousness”: <em>“Throughout, Tristram’s voice is the only real sense of continuity. A precursor of the stream-of-consciousness style, it runs on the association of ideas, with an idiosyncratic use of dashes to mimic the structure of thought and conversation. The dashes cover every page, varying in length and expressivity but showing the seams between one idea and the next that chips in, usually before the first was fully formed. They give a sense of constant improvisation.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the book was notable for its highly original and bold formatting even by today’s standards: <em>“Sterne was absolutely serious about its physical production. His surviving letters to publishers are exacting in their demands about paper quality, print type and lay out, and he would supervise the printing of each volume. That’s because they involved some very particular visual elements, including three famous disruptions to the text….The first appears midway through volume one, as Tristram narrates the dying moment of Parson Yorick. As the chapter ends, the facing page is simply black, a slab of ink, as is its reverse side. The second is a marbled page found in the third volume. Originally, these were marbled by hand before being stuck into each book. In modern editions, the marbled page is monochrome and uniform, robbing it of its meaning. The idea was that each reader would have a unique design in hand – that everyone was reading the same book, and yet in fact their copy was singular. And the third is a blank page, at the end of the sixth volume, when Tristram introduces Mrs Wadham, and tells the reader to get a pen and “paint her to your own mind – as like your mistress as you can – as unlike your wife as your conscience will let you – ’tis all one to me – please but your own fancy in it.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: For Men Who Hate Talking On The Phone, Games Keep Friendships Alive</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Cecilia D\'Anastasio\r\nSource: Kotaku (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bf4ffefdf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kotaku.com/for-men-who-hate-talking-on-the-phone-games-keep-frien-1835277944</a>)\r\nMen spend way less talk time on the phone than women is no secret. This piece by Cecilia says why so and furthermore show how men are adapting their traditional ways of bonding with male friends - through activity - in the modern technology driven world - through say, online gaming.  Online gaming has cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. New age millennials nowadays prefer phones for official work and not for bonding with friends. Cecilia refers to her discussion with three researchers to say that \"that they do think that there are specific reasons why men prefer catching up casually over games instead of segmenting out intentional phone time. One of them, Robin Dunbar, is a professor of evolutionary psychology at the University of Oxford and a contributor to the aforementioned study about how adult male friendships decline. Men’s relationships, he said in an email, are “underpinned by ‘doing stuff together.’” Men’s phone calls, he added, are statistically shorter than women’s. “I sometimes joke that this is because the only reason for phoning someone is to say ‘I’ll see you down the bar at 7 o’clock,’” he said.”\r\nCecilia quotes researchers to say that different behaviour of girls &amp; boys in interacting are due to the ways boys and girls are socialized from a young age. Boys are pushed away from family emotional support at young age and are expected to be independent and strong. Online gaming helps men to overcome the challenge of communicating and bonding. Video games aren’t just entertainment—they’re communication technologies in 21s century.\r\n<em>“Any time a friend of Eddie Gill’s calls him on the phone, his first thought is: “Why the fuck are you calling me?” Gill, a physician from Hingham, MA, is 30 years old—around the age when, according to an oft-cited study by Royal Society Open Science, the number of friendships the average man maintains dramatically declines. He is not a phone guy. He’ll talk to his mom, or his grandparents. Other than that, he finds keeping in touch with friends and family to be as difficult as chasing around his seven-month-old, or working with his patients. Like others his age, Gill says that his close friendships from high school and college have atrophied, not only because of the distance but because of their mutual aversion to talking on the phone. “The absolute exception,” said Gill, “are the friends I regularly play games with.”</em>\r\n<em>Put Eddie Gill and one of his friends on the phone, and it would be painful for both parties—stilted conversation, awkward silences, brusque goodbyes. But drop them into a game of Apex Legends and the conversation flows freely.Over Xbox voice chat, Gill gabs with his buddies about the latest Game of Thrones episode, their favorite NFL teams and, sometimes, their personal lives. When his wife was pregnant, he told his friends over a game of Destiny 2. Like over two dozen other people Kotaku spoke to—the vast majority of whom were men—Gill says online gaming has replaced phone calls, and even real-life meetups. It’s cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. “I don’t think I would be as close with these guys if we didn’t hang out online the way we do,” Gill says of his childhood friends with whom he plays Apex Legends. “It would be impossible.”…….. </em>\r\n<em>… “I also think we have raised boys and girls differently and given girls more emotional language tools to use than we give boys,” said Dan Hemmerly-Brown, a 39-year-old technician for a market research firm. Hemmerly-Brown says that if his wife is concerned about something, she’ll call her friend to talk it through. For him, though, it might get brought up over Xbox voice chat with his gaming buddies. Fourteen other men I talked to agreed with the idea that online gaming is a casual way to stave off the loneliness and emotional isolation that can come with getting older.</em>\r\n<em>Chris Richardson, 28, a mechanical engineer, told the story of how his good friend’s wife came up to him at their wedding to tell him that his co-op gaming with her husband while he was out of state on an internship “made him feel so much less lonely because he was living alone in a new town.” Richardson wasn’t likely to have called and checked in. Growing up, when Richardson talked to a childhood friend on the phone, he’d only do it “while playing Super Smash Bros. Melee and listening to Linkin Park… </em>\r\n<em>..“Women tend to be more conversational and more emotionally open than men on average,” Williams said, “and so it’s not surprising that men would seek to be less emotional in any medium, including voice.” While everyone needs emotional support, he says, it can feel awkward for men if “emotional support” is the stated reason for initiating an interaction. “Guys will go drink, play football, play games together. All of that would serve the function of emotional connection, but they would be uncomfortable if you labeled it like that,” he said. On the other hand, Williams said, when his wife hosts her book club, she’s open about the fact that it’s not always about the books. “They have no problem saying that,” he said. “Guys playing games—it’s really no different, except for the awareness of it.” Adam Johns is a clinician and the founder of Game To Grow, a therapy group that uses role-playing games to support social skills and mental health. He said he has noticed that his male therapy clients are more likely to interact over an activity. He has clients who say that they would never talk to their school acquaintances outside of gaming with them online, and have never sought to close the IRL-URL gap……. “</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How modern life is transforming the human skeleton</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zaria Gorvett\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6bbffa8763&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190610-how-modern-life-is-transforming-the-human-skeleton</a>)\r\nThe human body doesn’t cease to fascinate especially its malleability. For centuries, scientists believed that our bones were fixed and that they grow in a predictable way depending upon the genes we inherit from our parents. However, a Dutch scientist‘s investigation of a goat’s skeleton which had one leg missing &amp; one leg deformed by birth changed the myth that our bones are fixed. He found that goat’s bones had started to adapt his body structure – “The bones in his hips and legs were thicker than you would expect, while the ones in his ankles had been stretched out. Finally, his toes and hips were abnormally angled, to accommodate a more upright posture. The goat’s frame had started to look a lot like those of animals which hop.”\r\nOsteobiography – literally “the biography of bones” – involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. Research shows that men in 16<sup>th</sup>/17<sup>th</sup> century were very strong and the reason men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work. Zaria refers to a health scientist’s work to highlight more recent developments in the human skeleton - a spike-like feature found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck and attributes it to the amount of time spent on smartphones. Furthermore, she cites, Christiane Scheffler’s work which shows that children’s skeletons are becoming more &amp; more fragile each year and suggests a straightforward adaptation to modern life - since it doesn’t make sense to grow bone that you don’t need.\r\n“<em>…So what will future archaeologists make of our skeletons, when they examine them from their spaceships? If we’re not careful, they’ll reveal unhealthy diets, staggering levels of inactivity, and a morbid attachment to technology. Perhaps it’s best to be cremated.”</em>\r\n<em>“Today it’s an established fact that our skeletons are surprisingly malleable. The pure white remains displayed in museums may seem solid and inert, but the bones beneath our flesh are very much alive – they’re actually pink with blood vessels – and they’re constantly being broken down and rebuilt. So although each person’s skeleton develops according to a rough template set out in their DNA, it is then tailored to accommodate the unique stresses of their life. This has led to a discipline known as “osteobiography\" – literally “the biography of bones” – which involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. It relies on the fact that certain activities, such as walking on two legs, leave a predictable signature behind, such as sturdier hip bones. And from the discovery of a curious spiky growth on the back of many people’s skulls to the realisation that our jaws are getting smaller, to the enigmatic finding that German youths currently have narrower elbows than ever before, it’s clear that modern life is having an impact on our bones.  </em>\r\n<em>For an example of how osteobiography works, take the mystery of the “strong men” of Guam and the Mariana Islands. It began with the discovery of a male skeleton on the island of Tinian, which lies 1,600 miles (2,560km) east of the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean, in 1924. The remains were dated to the 16th or 17th Century, and they were positively gigantic. The man’s skull, arm bones, collarbones, and the bones of his lower legs suggested that he had been immensely strong and unusually tall. The finding slotted in nicely with local legends of enormous ancient rulers, who had been capable of truly heroic physical feats. Archaeologists called him Taotao Tagga – “man of Tagga” – after the island’s famous mythological chief Taga, who was renowned for his super-human strength. As other graves were discovered, it became clear that the first skeleton was no anomaly; in fact as well as fiction, Tinian and the surrounding islands had been home to a race of extraordinarily brawny men. But where had they got their strength from? …..This was no mysterious race of muscular giants; the men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work.</em>\r\n<em>If, in the future, the same technique were used to piece together how people lived in 2019, the scientists would find characteristic changes in our skeletons that reflect our modern lifestyles. “I have been a clinician for 20 years, and only in the last decade, increasingly I have been discovering that my patients have this growth on the skull,” says David Shahar, a health scientist at the University of The Sunshine Coast, Australia. The spike-like feature, also known as the “external occipital protuberance” is found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck. If you have one, it’s likely that you will be able to feel it with your fingers – or if you’re bald, it may even be visible from behind.</em>\r\n<em>…Shahar thinks the spike explosion is down to modern technology, particularly our recent obsession with smartphones and tablets. As we hunch over them, we crane our necks and hold our heads forward. This is problematic, because the average head weighs around 10 pounds (4.5 kg) – about as much as a large watermelon.</em>\r\n<em>When we’re sitting upright, these hefty objects are balanced neatly on top of our spines. But as we lean forwards to pore over famous dogs on social media, our necks must strain to hold them in place. Doctors call the pain this can cause “text neck”. Shahar thinks the spikes form because the hunched posture creates extra pressure on the place where the neck muscles attach to the skull – and the body responds by laying down fresh layers of bone. These help the skull to cope with the extra stress, by spreading the weight over a wider area. Of course, bad posture was not invented in the 21st Century – people have always found something to hunch over. So why didn’t we get the skull protuberances from books? One possibility is down to the sheer amount of time that we currently spend on our phones, versus how long a person would previously have spent reading. For example, even in 1973, well before most modern hand-held distractions were invented,  the average American typically read for about two hours each day. In contrast, today people are spending nearly double that time on their phones. Indeed, for Shahar, the biggest surprise was just how large the spikes were. Before his study, the most recent research was conducted at an osteological lab in India, in 2012. That’s a lab specialising entirely in bones – as you can imagine, they have quite a lot of skulls – but the doctor there only found one with the growth. It measured 8 mm, which is so small, it wouldn’t even have been included in Shahar’s results. “And he thought it was significant enough to write a whole paper about it!” he says. In his own study, the most substantial growths were 30mm long.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: GAM. Woodford. H2O. There\'s Never One Cockroach</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Mark Gilbert\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=181d5169e1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-20/gam-woodford-h2o-there-s-never-one-cockroach</a>)\r\nThis article focuses on how two prominent European funds – superstar manager Neil Woodford’s fund and French investment manager Natixis’ H2) fund - are in the limelight after disclosing that a surprisingly large proportion of their assets were in illiquid investments. Coming as they do in the wake of India’s largest fund house, HDFC Asset Management, dipping into its own Balance Sheet to make good investor’s losses from investing in Essel Group paper, these developments are reminiscent of what happened in the penultimate stages of the credit crisis [when hedge funds and money market funds started getting into trouble]. It is becoming apparent that for several managers the outperformance that they have shown in the post-Lehman era is heavily reliant on investing in illiquid assets i.e. much of the extra return they are generating is a compensation for liquidity risk.\r\nIn fact, the liquidity risk that Woodford is taking in his US$5bn+ fund is astonishing. <em>“The revelations about the scale of Woodford’s escapades prior to his move earlier this month to freeze redemptions from his flagship fund suggest that investors can’t rely on the regulator to safeguard their interests. In a letter published this week, the Financial Conduct Authority revealed that its “preliminary supervisory inquiries” suggest Woodford had about 20% of his Woodford Equity Income Fund in unlisted securities in February of this year. That’s astonishing.</em>\r\n<em>The maximum allowed for the fund was 10%. So Woodford didn’t just edge over the limit, he blasted through it. For every 100 pounds ($127) invested, 20 pounds was in illiquid investments, double the amount that investors in his fund would have expected.”</em>\r\nNatixis’ love for illiquid assets is equally pronounced. <em>“Shares in Natixis SA dropped to their lowest in three years after the Financial Times wrote that one of its investment funds, H2O asset management, had loaded up on hard-to-trade bonds of companies related to German entrepreneur Lars Windhorst. The article prompted Morningstar to suspend its rating on one of the funds managed by H2O, which oversaw almost $33 billion at the end of last year.”</em>\r\nWhen this tide of liquidity created by central banks goes out, we will see that many more funds are in a similar situation.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The Pentagon has a laser that can identify people from a distance - by their heartbeat</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: David Hambling\r\nSource: TechnologyReview (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=68afc9ee62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613891/the-pentagon-has-a-laser-that-can-identify-people-from-a-distanceby-their-heartbeat/</a>)\r\n\r\nFrom fingerprints to biometric to facial recognition….now new technology allows human recognition from heartbeats. Apparently, our cardiac movements are unique much like our fingerprints or iris. The Pentagon has developed a new device to recognise people from a distance by detecting the heartbeat and has supposedly been already used to identify an ISIS terrorist at a drone strike. The device was developed as an extension of a product which was used to detect vibrations from a distance such as that in wind turbines. Besides security, the application of the device could be extended to healthcare where hospitals can keep a tab on the patients’ conditions without having to wire them up.\r\n<em>“Everyone’s heart is different. Like the iris or fingerprint, our unique cardiac signature can be used as a way to tell us apart. Crucially, it can be done from a distance.</em>\r\n<em>It’s that last point that has intrigued US Special Forces. Other long-range biometric techniques include gait analysis, which identifies someone by the way he or she walks. This method was supposedly used to identify an infamous ISIS terrorist before a drone strike. But gaits, like faces, are not necessarily distinctive. An individual’s cardiac signature is unique, though, and unlike faces or gait, it remains constant and cannot be altered or disguised.</em>\r\n<em>A new device, developed for the Pentagon after US Special Forces requested it, can identify people without seeing their face: instead it detects their unique cardiac signature with an infrared laser. While it works at 200 meters (219 yards), longer distances could be possible with a better laser. “I don’t want to say you could do it from space,” says Steward Remaly, of the Pentagon’s Combatting Terrorism Technical Support Office, “but longer ranges should be possible.”</em>\r\n<em>Contact infrared sensors are often used to automatically record a patient’s pulse. They work by detecting the changes in reflection of infrared light caused by blood flow. By contrast, the new device, called Jetson, uses a technique known as laser vibrometry to detect the surface movement caused by the heartbeat. This works though typical clothing like a shirt and a jacket (though not thicker clothing such as a winter coat).</em>\r\n<em>The most common way of carrying out remote biometric identification is by face recognition. But this needs good, frontal view of the face, which can be hard to obtain, especially from a drone. Face recognition may also be confused by beards, sunglasses, or headscarves.</em>\r\n<em>Cardiac signatures are already used for security identification. The Canadian company </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0654962b5f&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Nymi</em></a><em> has developed a wrist-worn pulse sensor as an alternative to fingerprint identification. The technology has been trialed by the Halifax building society in the UK.</em>\r\n<em>Jetson extends this approach by adapting an off-the shelf device that is usually used to check vibration from a distance in structures such as wind turbines. For Jetson, a special gimbal was added so that an invisible, quarter-size laser spot could be kept on a target. It takes about 30 seconds to get a good return, so at present the device is only effective where the subject is sitting or standing.</em>\r\n<em>In the longer run, this technology could find many more uses, its developers believe. For example, a doctor could scan for arrythmias and other conditions remotely, or hospitals could monitor the condition of patients without having to wire them up to machines.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: Hybrids are 14 times better than battery electric vehicles at reducing real-world carbon dioxide missions</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: NA\r\nSource: Emissions Analytics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e251d7428b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/hybrids-are-better</a>)\r\n\r\nElectrification of automobiles today is most constrained by battery production capacity. Given present technology available, a pure Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) requires significantly large sized batteries which puts a strain on the battery supply chain globally and restricts a more democratic and mass spread of electrification of automobiles through the hybrid route. This newsletter presents data evidence to show that at least until the point that battery supply chains globally become more efficient, the world is better off adopting hybrids than pure BEVs, where more number of people can adopt electrification even if in part and thereby contribute to reduction in emissions. The analysis doesn’t factor in the fact that CO2 emissions in upstream electricity is higher than that in gasoline production. So considering that, the case for hybrids over pure EVs in the short term becomes even stronger.\r\n<em>“Battery production capacity for motor vehicles is currently scarce, expensive and suffering supply lags and challenges. This may change over time, but for some period securing an economic supply of battery production capacity will be pivotal to the successful commercialisation of electrified vehicles, and to the relative fortunes of individual auto makers. At the same time, electrification is a proven route to tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction, or elimination. Therefore, the efficient deployment of available battery capacity between competing applications is critical to maximising fleet CO2 reduction.</em>\r\n<em>….The problem with the pure electric vehicle approach is that the transition will be slow, BEVs need disproportionately large batteries to give acceptable consumer utility, just as battery capacity is currently a scarce resource. As cumulative CO2 emissions are important for climate change – due to the long life of the gas in the atmosphere – a smaller reduction per vehicle now, but across many more hybrid vehicles, would eliminate a far greater volume of CO2 than applying the scarce battery resource to a smaller number of BEVs. This approach also helps mitigate naturally slow fleet turnover, with the average age of cars on the road being over twelve years.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '30th June 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'open', '', '30th-june-2019', '', '', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=1433', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(952, 1, '2018-10-28 11:14:54', '2018-10-28 11:14:54', 'The authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey &amp; Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'What Sets Successful CEOs Apart', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-sets-successful-ceos-apart', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:46:38', '2019-11-13 11:46:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=952', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(953, 1, '2019-06-21 11:14:54', '2019-06-21 11:14:54', 'The authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey &amp; Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'What Sets Successful CEOs Apart', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '952-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:14:54', '2019-06-21 11:14:54', '', 952, 'http://marcellus.in/952-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(954, 1, '2018-10-28 11:16:36', '2018-10-28 11:16:36', 'Cliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.', 'Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'quant-investor-cliff-asness-hasnt-smashed-his-screen-this-year-yet', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:45:06', '2019-11-13 11:45:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=954', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(955, 1, '2019-06-21 11:16:36', '2019-06-21 11:16:36', 'Cliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.', 'Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '954-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:16:36', '2019-06-21 11:16:36', '', 954, 'http://marcellus.in/954-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(957, 1, '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', 'a:10:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"text\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"placeholder\";s:18:\"Author Name Second\";s:7:\"prepend\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"append\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"maxlength\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Author Name Second', 'author_name_second', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d0cbd9626bb6', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '', 912, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&p=957', 2, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(958, 1, '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', 'a:10:{s:4:\"type\";s:4:\"text\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"placeholder\";s:13:\"Source Second\";s:7:\"prepend\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"append\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"maxlength\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Source Second', 'source_second', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d0cbdbd26bb7', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '2019-06-21 11:22:29', '', 912, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&p=958', 3, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(959, 1, '2018-10-28 11:25:48', '2018-10-28 11:25:48', 'In India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show.\r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'two-articles-which-should-be-read-together-1-how-social-democracy-lost-its-way-a-report-from-german-and-2-what-the-left-misses-about-nationalism', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:43:43', '2019-11-13 11:43:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=959', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(960, 1, '2019-06-21 11:25:48', '2019-06-21 11:25:48', 'In India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show.\r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>', 'Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '959-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:25:48', '2019-06-21 11:25:48', '', 959, 'http://marcellus.in/959-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(961, 1, '2018-10-28 11:27:02', '2018-10-28 11:27:02', 'The author – inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates – says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>', 'Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'do-not-believe-the-hype-about-artificial-intelligence', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:41:30', '2019-11-13 11:41:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=961', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(962, 1, '2019-06-21 11:27:02', '2019-06-21 11:27:02', 'The author – inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates – says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>', 'Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '961-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:27:02', '2019-06-21 11:27:02', '', 961, 'http://marcellus.in/961-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(963, 1, '2018-10-28 11:28:06', '2018-10-28 11:28:06', 'The pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>', 'Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ticketmaster-stages-fightback-against-touts', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:39:04', '2019-11-13 11:39:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=963', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(964, 1, '2019-06-21 11:28:06', '2019-06-21 11:28:06', 'The pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>', 'Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '963-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:28:06', '2019-06-21 11:28:06', '', 963, 'http://marcellus.in/963-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(965, 1, '2018-10-28 11:29:14', '2018-10-28 11:29:14', 'A slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time.\r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'getting-rich-vs-staying-rich', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:37:46', '2019-11-13 11:37:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=965', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(966, 1, '2019-06-21 11:29:14', '2019-06-21 11:29:14', 'A slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time.\r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '965-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:29:14', '2019-06-21 11:29:14', '', 965, 'http://marcellus.in/965-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(967, 1, '2018-10-14 11:30:20', '2018-10-14 11:30:20', 'If you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….', 'The creation of a mobile juggernaut', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-creation-of-a-mobile-juggernaut', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:01:57', '2019-11-13 12:01:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=967', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(968, 1, '2019-06-21 11:30:20', '2019-06-21 11:30:20', 'If you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….', 'The creation of a mobile juggernaut', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '967-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:30:20', '2019-06-21 11:30:20', '', 967, 'http://marcellus.in/967-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1514, 1, '2019-07-23 13:44:16', '2019-07-23 13:44:16', '', 'HEADER', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'header', '', '', '2019-07-23 13:44:16', '2019-07-23 13:44:16', '', 1513, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/HEADER.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1515, 1, '2019-07-23 13:44:31', '2019-07-23 13:44:31', '', 'BLOG', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blog-2', '', '', '2019-07-23 13:44:31', '2019-07-23 13:44:31', '', 1513, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/BLOG.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(970, 1, '2018-10-14 11:32:43', '2018-10-14 11:32:43', 'The legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”', '‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'this-guy-doesnt-know-anything-the-inside-story-of-trumps-shambolic-transition-team', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:00:39', '2019-11-13 12:00:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=970', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(971, 1, '2019-06-21 11:32:43', '2019-06-21 11:32:43', 'The legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”', '‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '970-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:32:43', '2019-06-21 11:32:43', '', 970, 'http://marcellus.in/970-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(972, 1, '2018-10-14 11:33:40', '2018-10-14 11:33:40', 'As millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>', 'How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-online-shopping-makes-suckers-of-us-all', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:59:17', '2019-11-13 11:59:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=972', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(973, 1, '2019-06-21 11:33:40', '2019-06-21 11:33:40', 'As millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>', 'How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '972-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:33:40', '2019-06-21 11:33:40', '', 972, 'http://marcellus.in/972-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(974, 1, '2018-10-14 11:35:05', '2018-10-14 11:35:05', 'Janan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free &amp; fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.', 'What made the US unique has become history', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-made-the-us-unique-has-become-history', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:58:08', '2019-11-13 11:58:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=974', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(975, 1, '2019-06-21 11:35:05', '2019-06-21 11:35:05', 'Janan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free &amp; fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.', 'What made the US unique has become history', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '974-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:35:05', '2019-06-21 11:35:05', '', 974, 'http://marcellus.in/974-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(976, 1, '2018-10-14 11:38:30', '2018-10-14 11:38:30', 'Most psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'psychotherapy-is-not-harmless-on-the-side-effects-of-cbt', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:56:50', '2019-11-13 11:56:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=976', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(977, 1, '2019-06-21 11:38:30', '2019-06-21 11:38:30', 'Most psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.”</em>', 'Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '976-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:38:30', '2019-06-21 11:38:30', '', 976, 'http://marcellus.in/976-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(980, 1, '2018-11-25 11:41:41', '2018-11-25 11:41:41', 'Plastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson &amp; Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference.\r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show).', 'The plastic backlash: what’s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-plastic-backlash-whats-behind-our-sudden-rage-and-will-it-make-a-difference', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:58:20', '2019-11-13 10:58:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=980', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(981, 1, '2019-06-21 11:41:41', '2019-06-21 11:41:41', 'Plastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson &amp; Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference.\r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show).', 'The plastic backlash: what’s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '980-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:41:41', '2019-06-21 11:41:41', '', 980, 'http://marcellus.in/980-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(982, 1, '2018-11-25 11:42:53', '2018-11-25 11:42:53', 'This article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n 	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n 	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless.</li>\r\n 	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n 	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n 	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n 	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n 	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n 	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n 	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India.</li>\r\n 	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.', 'The future of war', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-future-of-war', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:57:06', '2019-11-13 10:57:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=982', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(983, 1, '2019-06-21 11:42:53', '2019-06-21 11:42:53', 'This article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n 	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n 	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless.</li>\r\n 	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n 	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n 	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n 	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n 	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n 	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n 	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India.</li>\r\n 	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.', 'The future of war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '982-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:42:53', '2019-06-21 11:42:53', '', 982, 'http://marcellus.in/982-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(984, 1, '2018-11-25 11:44:16', '2018-11-25 11:44:16', 'In light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-visit-to-north-sentinel-island-please-please-please-let-us-not-destroy-this-last-haven', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:54:22', '2019-11-13 10:54:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=984', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(985, 1, '2019-06-21 11:44:16', '2019-06-21 11:44:16', 'In light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>', 'A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '984-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:44:16', '2019-06-21 11:44:16', '', 984, 'http://marcellus.in/984-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(986, 1, '2018-11-25 11:47:00', '2018-11-25 11:47:00', 'Have you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full &amp; final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.', 'Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'proxy-resignation-service-helps-japans-dutiful-workers-to-quit-dead-end-jobs', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:53:00', '2019-11-13 10:53:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=986', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(987, 1, '2019-06-21 11:47:00', '2019-06-21 11:47:00', 'Have you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full &amp; final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.', 'Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '986-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:47:00', '2019-06-21 11:47:00', '', 986, 'http://marcellus.in/986-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(988, 1, '2018-11-25 11:48:09', '2018-11-25 11:48:09', 'From the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing – which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh &amp; Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly &amp; gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock.\r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent &amp; puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory.\r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a>', 'Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'momentum-investing-it-works-but-why', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:51:40', '2019-11-13 10:51:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=988', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(989, 1, '2019-06-21 11:48:09', '2019-06-21 11:48:09', 'From the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing – which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh &amp; Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly &amp; gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock.\r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent &amp; puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory.\r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a>', 'Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '988-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:48:09', '2019-06-21 11:48:09', '', 988, 'http://marcellus.in/988-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(990, 1, '2018-11-25 11:49:45', '2018-11-25 11:49:45', 'Another gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.\r\n\r\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'Time Horizon vs. Endurance', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'time-horizon-vs-endurance', '', '', '2019-06-26 10:57:49', '2019-06-26 10:57:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=990', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(991, 1, '2019-06-21 11:49:45', '2019-06-21 11:49:45', 'Another gem from Morgan Housel. The gospel of long term investing remains incomplete without acknowledging the importance of keeping an eye on events in the short run. At Marcellus, whilst we swear by our low churn, buy-and-hold philosophy, we do spend every ounce of our energy analysing any short term developments and trying to decipher the noise from the signal that can either validate or question our long term investment thesis on a continuous basis.\r\n\r\n<em>Housel writes, “It’s wrong – dangerous – to assume that because you have a long time horizon you can ignore the short run. If you ignore something, you’re unprepared for it. And when you’re unprepared for it it will eventually take advantage of you. The beauty of a long time horizon is capturing a compounding effect that others who quit before you forgo. But that only works when you’re keenly aware of, and prepared for, and managing for, the kind of short-term stuff that people with shorter time horizons don’t want to deal with.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'Time Horizon vs. Endurance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '990-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-21 11:49:45', '2019-06-21 11:49:45', '', 990, 'http://marcellus.in/990-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2168, 1, '2019-11-05 09:51:22', '2019-11-05 09:51:22', '', 'Financial Tech 5', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'financial-tech-5', '', '', '2019-11-05 09:51:22', '2019-11-05 09:51:22', '', 903, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Things-Hidden-Since-the-Foundation-of-the-World.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1979, 1, '2019-10-22 11:53:17', '2019-10-22 11:53:17', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 17 April, 2019</span></em>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The clients who ask us the most probing questions tend to have well organised work lives and a fierce focus on doing what is most useful and most enjoyable for them. Everything else is edited out of their lives. Such clients are not just successful capital allocators, they are also great time allocators. Each of those skills feeds into the other to create a virtuous cycle.</strong><strong>\n</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Most of what exists in the universe – our actions, and all other forces, resources, ideas – has little value and yields little result; on the other hand, a few things work fantastically well and have tremendous impact.” </em>― <strong>Richard Koch in </strong>‘The 80/20 Individual: How to Build on the 20% of What You do Best’ (2003)\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Clarity of thought….</strong>\nOver the past six months as we have crisscrossed India bolstering Marcellus’ assets under management, we have met over 500 businesspeople. The businesses they run range from being huge listed companies to small trading/wholesaling operations. However, regardless of how wealthy our clients are and regardless of how well educated they are, the tone &amp; tenor of our meetings across India are determined by one variable and one variable only – the clarity of thought that the client is able to bring to bear in the meeting.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Since in every meeting we pitch the same product – Marcellus’ Portfolio Management Services – we are able to watch the client’s mind click through the gears as she absorbs our pitch, processes the information, asks questions and reaches a conclusion regarding the utility of our services. The majority of the people we pitch to will ask questions about elections, climate change, water scarcity, China/trade war, interest rates, QE/global liquidity, P/E multiples, digitisation/Artificial Intelligence/automation, etc. These clients are well informed and we can see that their head is packed with information.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">However, only around one in three clients are able to ask the three questions which get to the heart of the matter, namely:\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(a) How can you show me that your interests are aligned with mine?</strong> Specifically, tell me how much of your own networth in invested in Marcellus’ funds? And are you willing to paid entirely on a profit share basis rather than charging fixed fees?\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(b) Explain to me in layman’s jargon how you will invest my money?</strong> To be more specific, how do you ensure that my money does not get invested in crony capitalist’s companies or in companies run by unethical management teams?\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>(c) What will you do to minimise the risk</strong> associated with investing my corpus in the Indian stockmarket? In specific, if I need my money back at very short notice, will you be able to accommodate me? If I want to avoid the high brokerage, custody &amp; fund accounting costs and the capital gains taxes typically associated with PMS investments in India, how can you help me?\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">It is not so much that this minority of our clients understands what we do more or less than the rest of our clients. It is more that they are able to zero in on what really matters in the hour that is allocated to these meetings. The enviable ability of a minority of people to understand a relatively complex matter quickly and ask penetrating questions is something we too would like to possess. So why is it that some people have greater clarity of thought than others?\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>….is fundamentally linked to focusing on what matters in life</strong>\nI used to think that clarity of thought is a genetic attribute – either god gave it to you or she didn’t. However, as we get to know our clients better, we have realised that like any other powerful skill, clarity of thought can be cultivated. Furthermore, businesspeople who are able to acquire this skill are also able to run their businesses far more effectively than those who don’t have this skill.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">So how does one acquire clarity of thought? [I too am learning inspite of all pretensions to the contrary. Hence please read this as ‘work in progress’.] The first step seems to be the realisation that most of the information that we get via email, social media and mainstream media and most of what surrounds us is actually irrelevant. In an outstanding book on this subject, <em>“Essentialism: the Disciplined Pursuit of Less”</em>, Greg McKeown says that <em>‘The overwhelming reality is: we live in a world where almost everything is worthless and a few very few things are exceptionally valuable.’</em>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The second is step seems to be around finding time &amp; space to think and to reflect. To carve out time to think, you need to have a clear appreciation of what matters to you i.e. what is absolutely essential to your working day (and, by implication, what are the peripheral activities which you should minimise). We have seen that clients who are able to carve out a solid hour to spend with us (when they are not fiddling with their phones) are far more able to focus on the three core questions listed above.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The third step entails using the space &amp; time freed up to play i.e. do work which you enjoy, which gets your creative juices going, work where the process of working/thinking is as important as the final outcome. Psychologists have found that play expands our mind in three different ways:\n<ol>\n 	<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1) Play broadens our mind and helps us see possibilities that otherwise wouldn’t exist. For example, the promoter of a listed company who gave us money to manage read our bestselling book ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (<a href=\">https://www.amazon.in/Unusual-Billionaires-Saurabh-Mukherjea/dp/0670089257</a>) on holiday and realized that the same principles could also help his business. Upon his request we conducted a strategy workshop for his twenty most senior executives. We in turn learnt from this management team how tricky it is to build durable entry barriers in the consumer durables sector.</li>\n 	<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2) Play is an antidote to stress. As is well known, stress can shut down the creative, inquisitive part of our brain. Writing these blogs, for instance, is for us as much about de-stressing and learning interesting things as it is about promoting our dogma.</li>\n 	<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3) Third, and perhaps most importantly, <em>“as Edward M.Hallowell, as psychiatrist who specializes in brain science, explains, play has a positive effect on the executive function of the brain…Play stimulates the parts of the brain involved in both careful logical reasoning and carefree, unbound exploration. Given that, it should hardly be surprising that key breakthroughs in thinking have taken place in times of play.” </em>(Source: ‘Essentialism: the Disciplined Pursuit of Less’, Greg McKeown (2014))</li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The final step in this sequential journey towards building clarity of thought is derisking or buffering oneself from the vicissitudes of life. You can only do this if you have sufficient time &amp; space to assess risks and understand steps that can be taken to reduce risk. People who are super busy and/or stressed seldom have the mindspace available to think through derisking. The clients whose questions are the most probing are the clients who have prepared in advance of our meeting. Why? Because they know that if they assess us properly during our hour with them, they are de-risking the management of their wealth in a far more effective way than worrying either about the outcome of India\'s elections or how Donald Trump will stymie Indian exports to America.\n\n<em>If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=eb0d58b045&amp;e=2d8f737438\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Most Important Questions to Ask Your Fund Manager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '726-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-22 11:53:17', '2019-10-22 11:53:17', '', 726, 'http://marcellus.in/726-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(993, 1, '2019-06-23 18:25:40', '2019-06-23 18:25:40', 'At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n1.	Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells “the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, “the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model “the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”\r\n \r\n2.	Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against \"cash deserts\"\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.\r\nThe angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.\r\nIn banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”\r\n \r\n3.	Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. “…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”\r\n \r\n4.	Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”\r\n“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.\r\n…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.\r\nRecognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””\r\n \r\n5.	Short read: The promotion curse\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.\r\nThere is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent article for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.\r\nThe research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.\r\nScott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.\r\nPeople get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”\r\n \r\n6.	Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India\'s hottest place\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma \r\nSource: Business Standard (https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html  )\r\n \r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.\r\nThe district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.\r\n“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.\r\nSince the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””\r\n \r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n', '23 June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '992-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-23 18:25:40', '2019-06-23 18:25:40', '', 992, 'http://marcellus.in/992-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(994, 1, '2019-06-23 18:26:07', '2019-06-23 18:26:07', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6276076f8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6857b7a685&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting</a>)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against \"cash deserts\"</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6adc7be2d1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/</a>)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d0c14ee030&amp;e=5648501957\">https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c</a> )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=534a7d4da3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/</a>)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The promotion curse</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1bc4b172bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse</a> )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India\'s hottest place</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma\r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c5c5455cb3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html</a>  )\r\n\r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '23 June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '992-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-23 18:26:07', '2019-06-23 18:26:07', '', 992, 'http://marcellus.in/992-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(995, 1, '2019-06-23 18:28:59', '2019-06-23 18:28:59', '<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.                   </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6276076f8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6857b7a685&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting</a>)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against \"cash deserts\"</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6adc7be2d1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/</a>)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d0c14ee030&amp;e=5648501957\">https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c</a> )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=534a7d4da3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/</a>)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The promotion curse</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1bc4b172bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse</a> )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India\'s hottest place</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma\r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c5c5455cb3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html</a>  )\r\n\r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '23 June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '992-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-23 18:28:59', '2019-06-23 18:28:59', '', 992, 'http://marcellus.in/992-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(996, 1, '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '<em>Published on: 23rd June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.                   </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6276076f8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6857b7a685&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting</a>)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against \"cash deserts\"</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6adc7be2d1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/</a>)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d0c14ee030&amp;e=5648501957\">https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c</a> )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=534a7d4da3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/</a>)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The promotion curse</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1bc4b172bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse</a> )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India\'s hottest place</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma\r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c5c5455cb3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html</a>  )\r\n\r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '23rd June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '992-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '2019-06-23 18:34:38', '', 992, 'http://marcellus.in/992-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1434, 1, '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '<em>Published on: 23rd June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on a fascinatingly eccentric comic novelist, effect of online gaming on male bonding, impact of modern life on the human skeleton, liquidity risk taken by fund managers, heartbeat as a unique human identifier, and why hybrids are better than battery electric vehicles at reducing carbon emissions.</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8bc362fa8b&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The best comic novel ever written?</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Thomas Graham\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=38113c1044&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20190521-is-this-the-best-shaggy-dog-story-ever-written</a>)\r\nWritten in the middle of the 18<sup>th</sup> century by Lawrence Stern, an Anglican Parish priest who wanted to become famous, the autobiography of the fictional character Tristram Shandy, “The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman” is a wildly original bestseller which influenced some of the greatest writers of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The book was a smash hit upon publication. <em>““The first two volumes were wildly popular,”  Judith Hawley, an expert on 18th-Century literature, tells BBC Culture. “So much so that the name Tristram Shandy entered popular culture. There was a lot of branded merchandise; race horses were named after him; lots of imitation novels. It became a marketing phenomenon.””</em>\r\nSo what exactly did Sterne do which marked this books out as one of the most original books ever written?\r\nFirstly, the chronology used in the book is deliberately messed up: <em>“to describe them as a sequence belies the screwy time scheme of the book, which is by turns stretched and squashed, folded back on itself and internally disordered. The author’s preface turns up in the third volume, when Tristram’s mother is giving birth (to him) and the Shandy men have dozed off: “All my heroes are off my hands; – ’tis the first time I have had a moment to spare, – and I’ll make use of it, and write my preface”. The end, “Finis,” comes at the close of the fourth. In the sixth volume, as if regretting his tendency to digress, Tristram suggests he will get on with the story from them on “in a tolerable straight line.” He immediately jumps to a travelogue in France. At one point, Tristram notes it is a year since he started writing, and he’s not even a day old in the book. He’s falling ever further behind.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Sterne creates a narrative style which would nearly 200 years later (once it was used by James Joyce and Virgina Woolf) be called the “stream of consciousness”: <em>“Throughout, Tristram’s voice is the only real sense of continuity. A precursor of the stream-of-consciousness style, it runs on the association of ideas, with an idiosyncratic use of dashes to mimic the structure of thought and conversation. The dashes cover every page, varying in length and expressivity but showing the seams between one idea and the next that chips in, usually before the first was fully formed. They give a sense of constant improvisation.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the book was notable for its highly original and bold formatting even by today’s standards: <em>“Sterne was absolutely serious about its physical production. His surviving letters to publishers are exacting in their demands about paper quality, print type and lay out, and he would supervise the printing of each volume. That’s because they involved some very particular visual elements, including three famous disruptions to the text….The first appears midway through volume one, as Tristram narrates the dying moment of Parson Yorick. As the chapter ends, the facing page is simply black, a slab of ink, as is its reverse side. The second is a marbled page found in the third volume. Originally, these were marbled by hand before being stuck into each book. In modern editions, the marbled page is monochrome and uniform, robbing it of its meaning. The idea was that each reader would have a unique design in hand – that everyone was reading the same book, and yet in fact their copy was singular. And the third is a blank page, at the end of the sixth volume, when Tristram introduces Mrs Wadham, and tells the reader to get a pen and “paint her to your own mind – as like your mistress as you can – as unlike your wife as your conscience will let you – ’tis all one to me – please but your own fancy in it.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: For Men Who Hate Talking On The Phone, Games Keep Friendships Alive</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Cecilia D\'Anastasio\r\nSource: Kotaku (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bf4ffefdf&amp;e=5648501957\">https://kotaku.com/for-men-who-hate-talking-on-the-phone-games-keep-frien-1835277944</a>)\r\nMen spend way less talk time on the phone than women is no secret. This piece by Cecilia says why so and furthermore show how men are adapting their traditional ways of bonding with male friends - through activity - in the modern technology driven world - through say, online gaming.  Online gaming has cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. New age millennials nowadays prefer phones for official work and not for bonding with friends. Cecilia refers to her discussion with three researchers to say that \"that they do think that there are specific reasons why men prefer catching up casually over games instead of segmenting out intentional phone time. One of them, Robin Dunbar, is a professor of evolutionary psychology at the University of Oxford and a contributor to the aforementioned study about how adult male friendships decline. Men’s relationships, he said in an email, are “underpinned by ‘doing stuff together.’” Men’s phone calls, he added, are statistically shorter than women’s. “I sometimes joke that this is because the only reason for phoning someone is to say ‘I’ll see you down the bar at 7 o’clock,’” he said.”\r\nCecilia quotes researchers to say that different behaviour of girls &amp; boys in interacting are due to the ways boys and girls are socialized from a young age. Boys are pushed away from family emotional support at young age and are expected to be independent and strong. Online gaming helps men to overcome the challenge of communicating and bonding. Video games aren’t just entertainment—they’re communication technologies in 21s century.\r\n<em>“Any time a friend of Eddie Gill’s calls him on the phone, his first thought is: “Why the fuck are you calling me?” Gill, a physician from Hingham, MA, is 30 years old—around the age when, according to an oft-cited study by Royal Society Open Science, the number of friendships the average man maintains dramatically declines. He is not a phone guy. He’ll talk to his mom, or his grandparents. Other than that, he finds keeping in touch with friends and family to be as difficult as chasing around his seven-month-old, or working with his patients. Like others his age, Gill says that his close friendships from high school and college have atrophied, not only because of the distance but because of their mutual aversion to talking on the phone. “The absolute exception,” said Gill, “are the friends I regularly play games with.”</em>\r\n<em>Put Eddie Gill and one of his friends on the phone, and it would be painful for both parties—stilted conversation, awkward silences, brusque goodbyes. But drop them into a game of Apex Legends and the conversation flows freely.Over Xbox voice chat, Gill gabs with his buddies about the latest Game of Thrones episode, their favorite NFL teams and, sometimes, their personal lives. When his wife was pregnant, he told his friends over a game of Destiny 2. Like over two dozen other people Kotaku spoke to—the vast majority of whom were men—Gill says online gaming has replaced phone calls, and even real-life meetups. It’s cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. “I don’t think I would be as close with these guys if we didn’t hang out online the way we do,” Gill says of his childhood friends with whom he plays Apex Legends. “It would be impossible.”…….. </em>\r\n<em>… “I also think we have raised boys and girls differently and given girls more emotional language tools to use than we give boys,” said Dan Hemmerly-Brown, a 39-year-old technician for a market research firm. Hemmerly-Brown says that if his wife is concerned about something, she’ll call her friend to talk it through. For him, though, it might get brought up over Xbox voice chat with his gaming buddies. Fourteen other men I talked to agreed with the idea that online gaming is a casual way to stave off the loneliness and emotional isolation that can come with getting older.</em>\r\n<em>Chris Richardson, 28, a mechanical engineer, told the story of how his good friend’s wife came up to him at their wedding to tell him that his co-op gaming with her husband while he was out of state on an internship “made him feel so much less lonely because he was living alone in a new town.” Richardson wasn’t likely to have called and checked in. Growing up, when Richardson talked to a childhood friend on the phone, he’d only do it “while playing Super Smash Bros. Melee and listening to Linkin Park… </em>\r\n<em>..“Women tend to be more conversational and more emotionally open than men on average,” Williams said, “and so it’s not surprising that men would seek to be less emotional in any medium, including voice.” While everyone needs emotional support, he says, it can feel awkward for men if “emotional support” is the stated reason for initiating an interaction. “Guys will go drink, play football, play games together. All of that would serve the function of emotional connection, but they would be uncomfortable if you labeled it like that,” he said. On the other hand, Williams said, when his wife hosts her book club, she’s open about the fact that it’s not always about the books. “They have no problem saying that,” he said. “Guys playing games—it’s really no different, except for the awareness of it.” Adam Johns is a clinician and the founder of Game To Grow, a therapy group that uses role-playing games to support social skills and mental health. He said he has noticed that his male therapy clients are more likely to interact over an activity. He has clients who say that they would never talk to their school acquaintances outside of gaming with them online, and have never sought to close the IRL-URL gap……. “</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How modern life is transforming the human skeleton</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zaria Gorvett\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6bbffa8763&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190610-how-modern-life-is-transforming-the-human-skeleton</a>)\r\nThe human body doesn’t cease to fascinate especially its malleability. For centuries, scientists believed that our bones were fixed and that they grow in a predictable way depending upon the genes we inherit from our parents. However, a Dutch scientist‘s investigation of a goat’s skeleton which had one leg missing &amp; one leg deformed by birth changed the myth that our bones are fixed. He found that goat’s bones had started to adapt his body structure – “The bones in his hips and legs were thicker than you would expect, while the ones in his ankles had been stretched out. Finally, his toes and hips were abnormally angled, to accommodate a more upright posture. The goat’s frame had started to look a lot like those of animals which hop.”\r\nOsteobiography – literally “the biography of bones” – involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. Research shows that men in 16<sup>th</sup>/17<sup>th</sup> century were very strong and the reason men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work. Zaria refers to a health scientist’s work to highlight more recent developments in the human skeleton - a spike-like feature found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck and attributes it to the amount of time spent on smartphones. Furthermore, she cites, Christiane Scheffler’s work which shows that children’s skeletons are becoming more &amp; more fragile each year and suggests a straightforward adaptation to modern life - since it doesn’t make sense to grow bone that you don’t need.\r\n“<em>…So what will future archaeologists make of our skeletons, when they examine them from their spaceships? If we’re not careful, they’ll reveal unhealthy diets, staggering levels of inactivity, and a morbid attachment to technology. Perhaps it’s best to be cremated.”</em>\r\n<em>“Today it’s an established fact that our skeletons are surprisingly malleable. The pure white remains displayed in museums may seem solid and inert, but the bones beneath our flesh are very much alive – they’re actually pink with blood vessels – and they’re constantly being broken down and rebuilt. So although each person’s skeleton develops according to a rough template set out in their DNA, it is then tailored to accommodate the unique stresses of their life. This has led to a discipline known as “osteobiography\" – literally “the biography of bones” – which involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. It relies on the fact that certain activities, such as walking on two legs, leave a predictable signature behind, such as sturdier hip bones. And from the discovery of a curious spiky growth on the back of many people’s skulls to the realisation that our jaws are getting smaller, to the enigmatic finding that German youths currently have narrower elbows than ever before, it’s clear that modern life is having an impact on our bones.  </em>\r\n<em>For an example of how osteobiography works, take the mystery of the “strong men” of Guam and the Mariana Islands. It began with the discovery of a male skeleton on the island of Tinian, which lies 1,600 miles (2,560km) east of the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean, in 1924. The remains were dated to the 16th or 17th Century, and they were positively gigantic. The man’s skull, arm bones, collarbones, and the bones of his lower legs suggested that he had been immensely strong and unusually tall. The finding slotted in nicely with local legends of enormous ancient rulers, who had been capable of truly heroic physical feats. Archaeologists called him Taotao Tagga – “man of Tagga” – after the island’s famous mythological chief Taga, who was renowned for his super-human strength. As other graves were discovered, it became clear that the first skeleton was no anomaly; in fact as well as fiction, Tinian and the surrounding islands had been home to a race of extraordinarily brawny men. But where had they got their strength from? …..This was no mysterious race of muscular giants; the men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work.</em>\r\n<em>If, in the future, the same technique were used to piece together how people lived in 2019, the scientists would find characteristic changes in our skeletons that reflect our modern lifestyles. “I have been a clinician for 20 years, and only in the last decade, increasingly I have been discovering that my patients have this growth on the skull,” says David Shahar, a health scientist at the University of The Sunshine Coast, Australia. The spike-like feature, also known as the “external occipital protuberance” is found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck. If you have one, it’s likely that you will be able to feel it with your fingers – or if you’re bald, it may even be visible from behind.</em>\r\n<em>…Shahar thinks the spike explosion is down to modern technology, particularly our recent obsession with smartphones and tablets. As we hunch over them, we crane our necks and hold our heads forward. This is problematic, because the average head weighs around 10 pounds (4.5 kg) – about as much as a large watermelon.</em>\r\n<em>When we’re sitting upright, these hefty objects are balanced neatly on top of our spines. But as we lean forwards to pore over famous dogs on social media, our necks must strain to hold them in place. Doctors call the pain this can cause “text neck”. Shahar thinks the spikes form because the hunched posture creates extra pressure on the place where the neck muscles attach to the skull – and the body responds by laying down fresh layers of bone. These help the skull to cope with the extra stress, by spreading the weight over a wider area. Of course, bad posture was not invented in the 21st Century – people have always found something to hunch over. So why didn’t we get the skull protuberances from books? One possibility is down to the sheer amount of time that we currently spend on our phones, versus how long a person would previously have spent reading. For example, even in 1973, well before most modern hand-held distractions were invented,  the average American typically read for about two hours each day. In contrast, today people are spending nearly double that time on their phones. Indeed, for Shahar, the biggest surprise was just how large the spikes were. Before his study, the most recent research was conducted at an osteological lab in India, in 2012. That’s a lab specialising entirely in bones – as you can imagine, they have quite a lot of skulls – but the doctor there only found one with the growth. It measured 8 mm, which is so small, it wouldn’t even have been included in Shahar’s results. “And he thought it was significant enough to write a whole paper about it!” he says. In his own study, the most substantial growths were 30mm long.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: GAM. Woodford. H2O. There\'s Never One Cockroach</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Mark Gilbert\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=181d5169e1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-06-20/gam-woodford-h2o-there-s-never-one-cockroach</a>)\r\nThis article focuses on how two prominent European funds – superstar manager Neil Woodford’s fund and French investment manager Natixis’ H2) fund - are in the limelight after disclosing that a surprisingly large proportion of their assets were in illiquid investments. Coming as they do in the wake of India’s largest fund house, HDFC Asset Management, dipping into its own Balance Sheet to make good investor’s losses from investing in Essel Group paper, these developments are reminiscent of what happened in the penultimate stages of the credit crisis [when hedge funds and money market funds started getting into trouble]. It is becoming apparent that for several managers the outperformance that they have shown in the post-Lehman era is heavily reliant on investing in illiquid assets i.e. much of the extra return they are generating is a compensation for liquidity risk.\r\nIn fact, the liquidity risk that Woodford is taking in his US$5bn+ fund is astonishing. <em>“The revelations about the scale of Woodford’s escapades prior to his move earlier this month to freeze redemptions from his flagship fund suggest that investors can’t rely on the regulator to safeguard their interests. In a letter published this week, the Financial Conduct Authority revealed that its “preliminary supervisory inquiries” suggest Woodford had about 20% of his Woodford Equity Income Fund in unlisted securities in February of this year. That’s astonishing.</em>\r\n<em>The maximum allowed for the fund was 10%. So Woodford didn’t just edge over the limit, he blasted through it. For every 100 pounds ($127) invested, 20 pounds was in illiquid investments, double the amount that investors in his fund would have expected.”</em>\r\nNatixis’ love for illiquid assets is equally pronounced. <em>“Shares in Natixis SA dropped to their lowest in three years after the Financial Times wrote that one of its investment funds, H2O asset management, had loaded up on hard-to-trade bonds of companies related to German entrepreneur Lars Windhorst. The article prompted Morningstar to suspend its rating on one of the funds managed by H2O, which oversaw almost $33 billion at the end of last year.”</em>\r\nWhen this tide of liquidity created by central banks goes out, we will see that many more funds are in a similar situation.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The Pentagon has a laser that can identify people from a distance - by their heartbeat</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: David Hambling\r\nSource: TechnologyReview (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=68afc9ee62&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613891/the-pentagon-has-a-laser-that-can-identify-people-from-a-distanceby-their-heartbeat/</a>)\r\n\r\nFrom fingerprints to biometric to facial recognition….now new technology allows human recognition from heartbeats. Apparently, our cardiac movements are unique much like our fingerprints or iris. The Pentagon has developed a new device to recognise people from a distance by detecting the heartbeat and has supposedly been already used to identify an ISIS terrorist at a drone strike. The device was developed as an extension of a product which was used to detect vibrations from a distance such as that in wind turbines. Besides security, the application of the device could be extended to healthcare where hospitals can keep a tab on the patients’ conditions without having to wire them up.\r\n<em>“Everyone’s heart is different. Like the iris or fingerprint, our unique cardiac signature can be used as a way to tell us apart. Crucially, it can be done from a distance.</em>\r\n<em>It’s that last point that has intrigued US Special Forces. Other long-range biometric techniques include gait analysis, which identifies someone by the way he or she walks. This method was supposedly used to identify an infamous ISIS terrorist before a drone strike. But gaits, like faces, are not necessarily distinctive. An individual’s cardiac signature is unique, though, and unlike faces or gait, it remains constant and cannot be altered or disguised.</em>\r\n<em>A new device, developed for the Pentagon after US Special Forces requested it, can identify people without seeing their face: instead it detects their unique cardiac signature with an infrared laser. While it works at 200 meters (219 yards), longer distances could be possible with a better laser. “I don’t want to say you could do it from space,” says Steward Remaly, of the Pentagon’s Combatting Terrorism Technical Support Office, “but longer ranges should be possible.”</em>\r\n<em>Contact infrared sensors are often used to automatically record a patient’s pulse. They work by detecting the changes in reflection of infrared light caused by blood flow. By contrast, the new device, called Jetson, uses a technique known as laser vibrometry to detect the surface movement caused by the heartbeat. This works though typical clothing like a shirt and a jacket (though not thicker clothing such as a winter coat).</em>\r\n<em>The most common way of carrying out remote biometric identification is by face recognition. But this needs good, frontal view of the face, which can be hard to obtain, especially from a drone. Face recognition may also be confused by beards, sunglasses, or headscarves.</em>\r\n<em>Cardiac signatures are already used for security identification. The Canadian company </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0654962b5f&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>Nymi</em></a><em> has developed a wrist-worn pulse sensor as an alternative to fingerprint identification. The technology has been trialed by the Halifax building society in the UK.</em>\r\n<em>Jetson extends this approach by adapting an off-the shelf device that is usually used to check vibration from a distance in structures such as wind turbines. For Jetson, a special gimbal was added so that an invisible, quarter-size laser spot could be kept on a target. It takes about 30 seconds to get a good return, so at present the device is only effective where the subject is sitting or standing.</em>\r\n<em>In the longer run, this technology could find many more uses, its developers believe. For example, a doctor could scan for arrythmias and other conditions remotely, or hospitals could monitor the condition of patients without having to wire them up to machines.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: Hybrids are 14 times better than battery electric vehicles at reducing real-world carbon dioxide missions</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: NA\r\nSource: Emissions Analytics (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e251d7428b&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news/hybrids-are-better</a>)\r\n\r\nElectrification of automobiles today is most constrained by battery production capacity. Given present technology available, a pure Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) requires significantly large sized batteries which puts a strain on the battery supply chain globally and restricts a more democratic and mass spread of electrification of automobiles through the hybrid route. This newsletter presents data evidence to show that at least until the point that battery supply chains globally become more efficient, the world is better off adopting hybrids than pure BEVs, where more number of people can adopt electrification even if in part and thereby contribute to reduction in emissions. The analysis doesn’t factor in the fact that CO2 emissions in upstream electricity is higher than that in gasoline production. So considering that, the case for hybrids over pure EVs in the short term becomes even stronger.\r\n<em>“Battery production capacity for motor vehicles is currently scarce, expensive and suffering supply lags and challenges. This may change over time, but for some period securing an economic supply of battery production capacity will be pivotal to the successful commercialisation of electrified vehicles, and to the relative fortunes of individual auto makers. At the same time, electrification is a proven route to tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction, or elimination. Therefore, the efficient deployment of available battery capacity between competing applications is critical to maximising fleet CO2 reduction.</em>\r\n<em>….The problem with the pure electric vehicle approach is that the transition will be slow, BEVs need disproportionately large batteries to give acceptable consumer utility, just as battery capacity is currently a scarce resource. As cumulative CO2 emissions are important for climate change – due to the long life of the gas in the atmosphere – a smaller reduction per vehicle now, but across many more hybrid vehicles, would eliminate a far greater volume of CO2 than applying the scarce battery resource to a smaller number of BEVs. This approach also helps mitigate naturally slow fleet turnover, with the average age of cars on the road being over twelve years.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', '30th June 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1433-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '2019-07-01 04:18:46', '', 1433, 'http://marcellus.in/1433-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(998, 1, '2019-06-24 03:29:39', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '<em><strong>In an insightful book written 40 years ago, French philosopher, Rene Girard, explains how</strong> <strong>in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other. That in turn leads to conflict &amp; grief which in turn creates the need for scapegoats who can act as a lightning rod for our grievances. Great leaders are those who can game this construct by using religion, culture, and other people as scapegoats.</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<em>“…in order to succeed one must take up an old problem, one not fashionable at the moment, and radically rethink it…there is nothing, or next to nothing, in human behaviour that is not learned, and all learning is based on imitation. If human beings suddenly cased imitating, all forms of culture would vanish. Neurologists remind us frequently that the human brain is an enormous imitation machine.” – <strong>Rene Girard</strong> in “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World” (1978)</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>Rene Girard, an original thinker with powerful insights</strong>\r\nIn 1978, Rene Girard published a remarkable book called “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World”. The book, written in the form of a dialogue between the philosopher, Girard, and two psychologists provides deep insights into how societies evolve, compete, fight and resolve conflict. Those insights in turn have implications for how we think about countries and companies.\r\nGirard’s hypothesis unfolds sequentially:</em>\r\n\r\n1. Human beings have an innate desire to compete with each other and rise in the world. At the outset, this desire to compete and create new things, conquer new frontiers is a healthy thing as it spurs creativity, innovation and differentiation.\r\n\r\n2. Then a complication kicks in because human beings, being social animals. learn from each other and copy each other. As a result, we start coveting the same things as others. For example, in isolation I have no incentive to covet a diamond which to my mind is a worthless stone. However, if 20 people around me begin coveting diamonds (or admission for their children into a certain school or flats on Altamount Road or holiday villas in Goa), then I too am likely to covet the same. Girard calls this <strong>“mimesis”</strong> i.e. we mimic each other in our desires. Notice that it is almost certain that we will covet things which are scarce in supply; hence diamonds are more coveted than water (at least until water becomes scarce) even though water is far more useful for us than diamonds.\r\n\r\n3. As hoards of people start seeking the same things, competition (or mimesis as Girard calls it) intensifies. Then, in the heat of the battle, differentiation takes a back seat as all of us strive to outdo each other in acquiring these symbols of prestige. The logical escalation of this competitive battle is aggression vis a vis each other which sometimes culminates in violence.\r\n\r\n4. During this period of intense competition, as unhappiness increases and grievances multiply, society seeks a scapegoat. The scapegoat is deemed to be responsible for all grievances although, in reality, the grievances arise from mimesis. The scapegoat can a be a person (see next bullet) or a community (eg. Jews in Germany in the 1930s, Jews in Hungary today, Muslims in India today, Latino immigrants in Trump’s America).\r\n\r\n5. Punishment is then meted out to the scapegoat so as to assuage the masses. In extreme cases, the scapegoat is murdered (eg. Jesus Christ, Julius Caesar). In less extreme cases, the scapegoat serves out a period of punishment (eg. Ram &amp; Sita going into exile, ditto for the Pandavas). Figures in positions of power &amp; influence – Kings in the ancient world, CEOs, Presidents and senior politicians today – partly exist to serve as scapegoats.\r\n\r\n6. Since powerful leaders realise that they can be readily sacrificed as scapegoats, they seek to institutionalise ways such that they can distribute the heat arising from society’s grievances (eg. by creating a Board of Directors or a Cabinet or a Parliament) whilst also increasing the supply of potential scapegoats (eg. the Vice Presidents of a firm, various Ministers and civil servants in a Government). A skillful leader who understands the above dynamic, moves preemptively to sacrifice a scapegoat other than herself to address society’s grievances.\r\n\r\n7. Religion serves an important purpose insofar it helps our leaders quell grievances with reduced conflict and/or smaller scapegoats. Similarly, in corporate life “culture” serves an important purpose as it forces people to focus on the bigger picture rather than the next promotion round. Ditto for nationalism at the level of the country.\r\n\r\n<em><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nGirard’s central thesis of mimesis (i.e. in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other) leading to conflict &amp; grief and that in turn creating the need for scapegoats is as simple as it is powerful. We can understand its implications at several levels:</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. At the level of the individual, we set ourselves up for a life of strife and unhappiness if we cannot have desires and goals which are different from the people around us. The more differentiated our desires and goals, the lower the chances of us spending our lives fighting empty battles for wealth, power &amp; prestige.</li>\r\n 	<li>2. However, if we do decide to aspire for the same things that many other people want then we have to realise that our success, our ascendancy creates the risk that we ourselves become the scapegoat.</li>\r\n 	<li>3. You can apply this thinking at the level of the company as well. The less differentiated a company’s offering/business model, the more likely that it will be engaged in intense competition with others. Such competition between similar companies is likely to result in almost all the player generating ROCE lower than their cost of capital. That in turn will trigger lobbying i.e. certain companies will push the Government to make som</li>\r\n</ol>', 'sfcsdfgvbfgdhhfhhhh', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2019-06-24 03:29:39', '2019-06-24 03:29:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=998', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(1000, 1, '2019-06-24 03:29:26', '2019-06-24 03:29:26', '<em><strong>In an insightful book written 40 years ago, French philosopher, Rene Girard, explains how</strong> <strong>in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other. That in turn leads to conflict &amp; grief which in turn creates the need for scapegoats who can act as a lightning rod for our grievances. Great leaders are those who can game this construct by using religion, culture, and other people as scapegoats.</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<em>“…in order to succeed one must take up an old problem, one not fashionable at the moment, and radically rethink it…there is nothing, or next to nothing, in human behaviour that is not learned, and all learning is based on imitation. If human beings suddenly cased imitating, all forms of culture would vanish. Neurologists remind us frequently that the human brain is an enormous imitation machine.” – <strong>Rene Girard</strong> in “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World” (1978)</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>Rene Girard, an original thinker with powerful insights</strong>\r\nIn 1978, Rene Girard published a remarkable book called “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World”. The book, written in the form of a dialogue between the philosopher, Girard, and two psychologists provides deep insights into how societies evolve, compete, fight and resolve conflict. Those insights in turn have implications for how we think about countries and companies.\r\nGirard’s hypothesis unfolds sequentially:</em>\r\n\r\n1. Human beings have an innate desire to compete with each other and rise in the world. At the outset, this desire to compete and create new things, conquer new frontiers is a healthy thing as it spurs creativity, innovation and differentiation.\r\n\r\n2. Then a complication kicks in because human beings, being social animals. learn from each other and copy each other. As a result, we start coveting the same things as others. For example, in isolation I have no incentive to covet a diamond which to my mind is a worthless stone. However, if 20 people around me begin coveting diamonds (or admission for their children into a certain school or flats on Altamount Road or holiday villas in Goa), then I too am likely to covet the same. Girard calls this <strong>“mimesis”</strong> i.e. we mimic each other in our desires. Notice that it is almost certain that we will covet things which are scarce in supply; hence diamonds are more coveted than water (at least until water becomes scarce) even though water is far more useful for us than diamonds.\r\n\r\n3. As hoards of people start seeking the same things, competition (or mimesis as Girard calls it) intensifies. Then, in the heat of the battle, differentiation takes a back seat as all of us strive to outdo each other in acquiring these symbols of prestige. The logical escalation of this competitive battle is aggression vis a vis each other which sometimes culminates in violence.\r\n\r\n4. During this period of intense competition, as unhappiness increases and grievances multiply, society seeks a scapegoat. The scapegoat is deemed to be responsible for all grievances although, in reality, the grievances arise from mimesis. The scapegoat can a be a person (see next bullet) or a community (eg. Jews in Germany in the 1930s, Jews in Hungary today, Muslims in India today, Latino immigrants in Trump’s America).\r\n\r\n5. Punishment is then meted out to the scapegoat so as to assuage the masses. In extreme cases, the scapegoat is murdered (eg. Jesus Christ, Julius Caesar). In less extreme cases, the scapegoat serves out a period of punishment (eg. Ram &amp; Sita going into exile, ditto for the Pandavas). Figures in positions of power &amp; influence – Kings in the ancient world, CEOs, Presidents and senior politicians today – partly exist to serve as scapegoats.\r\n\r\n6. Since powerful leaders realise that they can be readily sacrificed as scapegoats, they seek to institutionalise ways such that they can distribute the heat arising from society’s grievances (eg. by creating a Board of Directors or a Cabinet or a Parliament) whilst also increasing the supply of potential scapegoats (eg. the Vice Presidents of a firm, various Ministers and civil servants in a Government). A skillful leader who understands the above dynamic, moves preemptively to sacrifice a scapegoat other than herself to address society’s grievances.\r\n\r\n7. Religion serves an important purpose insofar it helps our leaders quell grievances with reduced conflict and/or smaller scapegoats. Similarly, in corporate life “culture” serves an important purpose as it forces people to focus on the bigger picture rather than the next promotion round. Ditto for nationalism at the level of the country.\r\n\r\n<em><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nGirard’s central thesis of mimesis (i.e. in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other) leading to conflict &amp; grief and that in turn creating the need for scapegoats is as simple as it is powerful. We can understand its implications at several levels:</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. At the level of the individual, we set ourselves up for a life of strife and unhappiness if we cannot have desires and goals which are different from the people around us. The more differentiated our desires and goals, the lower the chances of us spending our lives fighting empty battles for wealth, power &amp; prestige.</li>\r\n 	<li>2. However, if we do decide to aspire for the same things that many other people want then we have to realise that our success, our ascendancy creates the risk that we ourselves become the scapegoat.</li>\r\n 	<li>3. You can apply this thinking at the level of the company as well. The less differentiated a company’s offering/business model, the more likely that it will be engaged in intense competition with others. Such competition between similar companies is likely to result in almost all the player generating ROCE lower than their cost of capital. That in turn will trigger lobbying i.e. certain companies will push the Government to make som</li>\r\n</ol>', 'sfcsdfgvbfgdhhfhhhh', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '998-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 03:29:26', '2019-06-24 03:29:26', '', 998, 'http://marcellus.in/998-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1525, 1, '2019-07-28 10:51:35', '2019-07-28 10:51:35', 'Author: Margaret Morris\r\nSource: Fivebooks.com (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51ba133f23&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fivebooks.com/best-books/how-to-use-technology-margaret-morris/</a>)\r\nPsychologist Margaret Morris talks about the five books that shaped her approach to technology. These books are:\r\n·       The Saturated Self by Kenneth Gergen;\r\n·       The Stories We Live By: Personal Myths And The Making Of The Self by Dan McAdams;\r\n·       How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett\r\n·       Loneliness – Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by  John T. Cacioppo  and William Patrick;\r\n·       Evocative Objects – Things we think with by by Sherry Turkle, Tod Machover, Carol Strohecker, Susan Yee and Mitchel Resnick.\r\nHer central point is that whether technology benefits you or damages you/your family/your relationships, etc depends on how well you use technology. These five books can show you how to use technology better.\r\nDan McAdams’ book highlights something called the interview process which one can use to optimise one’s use of social media: <em>“That interview process was developed by psychologist Dan McAdams, who wrote one of the books that I’ve recommended, The Stories We Live By. I first ask students to do that interview with themselves. It’s a pretty personal and in-depth thing just to acknowledge the major chapters, themes and struggles in one’s life. Next they integrate a description of the technologies that were significant at different points in their lives. Then they find points where their technology use might be either exacerbating certain struggles or certainly not helping them move on. They might recognize what Dan McAdams calls ‘a narrative rut.’ Then they can start thinking about what to do differently. So that’s a pretty explicit, deliberate approach.”</em>\r\nLisa Feldman Barrett turns the argument that technology influences us on its head. Instead she shows in her book how <em>“…we can become “the architects of our experiences.” She pushes against the idea that events trigger emotions in a predetermined way and suggests we find the most specific language possible to describe our experiences and feelings. This specificity may propel us to move forward from challenges in a constructive way…We are not just this objective summary of what has happened to us. We are our interpretations of things, and how we articulate them...</em> <em>Her work suggests that perhaps what’s going to really help a person is actually not technology that tells them how they’re feeling, but something that helps them articulate how they’re feeling.”</em>\r\nJohn Cacioppo’s book delves into an unusual subject. He focuses <em>“…tools to help people—particularly people in later life—reach out to others, or at least recognize that loneliness isn’t something that’s fixed and a necessary part of life. In one project for older adults and their caregivers, we depicted loneliness—or, on the flipside, social connectedness—in a visual display that looked like a solar system. It was driven by sensors and also a journal that they kept. In making this with interaction designers and developers, what I really wanted was to take some ideas about loneliness from John Cacioppo’s work and from ‘learned helplessness’ to show that things are changeable…Learned helplessness is when someone stops trying to change a negative situation after repeated failures. The situation is perceived as fixed or stable, part of an attributional style that’s associated with depression. In the case of his study, that would be the feeling that as one participant said at the start of the study ‘Loneliness is a part of old age and there’s nothing you can do about it.’</em>\r\n<em>We wanted to create feedback that immediately rewarded social effort. So that if the older adult made a phone call or sent an email or had someone over, the dynamic display immediately updated to reinforce that effort. It conveyed that they could change their social engagement through small steps.</em>\r\n<em>The other part of it is what you can do to bring about change. One of the things I found really interesting in John Cacioppo’s work is that loneliness isn’t exclusively about receiving social support. It’s about participating in different kinds of relationships and communities. Making small gestures for others and not expecting anything in return is one really positive path out of loneliness.”</em>\r\nSheryl Turkle and her colleagues’ book is a collection of essays about cherished objects. <em>“Turkle investigates and celebrates the attachment that we have to objects. The relationships with objects isn’t between one person and one thing. There are all these human relationships and stories that are entangled in our attachment to objects. That is why a lot of people are attached to their phones. It’s not about the device, it’s about the relationships and the validation that they can have access to through these devices. That’s why they’re so important to them, they are a touchpoint for all that human connection.</em>\r\n<em>There’s always the question, ‘Why are people spending so much time on their screens?’ I think maybe a slightly better question is, ‘What are they getting out of it?’ or ‘What are they seeking from their screens?’ There’s a search for a signal that I matter, or that people want to talk to me. It’s acknowledging that I’m desirable, I’m important, I’m significant to other people.</em>\r\n<em>That’s maybe a more fruitful conversation to have than just wondering how we get people to be less attached to their screens. Maybe kids need more validation, more world-opening experiences or more role models than those available to them in their local environments. Or maybe they just need more excitement. It’s about addressing those needs. Those are the kind of things we should be thinking about.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How To Use Technology And Not Be Used By It: A Psychologist’s Reading List', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1522-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:51:35', '2019-07-28 10:51:35', '', 1522, 'http://marcellus.in/1522-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1524, 1, '2019-07-28 10:47:07', '2019-07-28 10:47:07', 'Author: Margaret Morris\r\nSource: Fivebooks.com (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51ba133f23&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fivebooks.com/best-books/how-to-use-technology-margaret-morris/</a>)\r\nPsychologist Margaret Morris talks about the five books that shaped her approach to technology. These books are:\r\n·       The Saturated Self by Kenneth Gergen;\r\n·       The Stories We Live By: Personal Myths And The Making Of The Self by Dan McAdams;\r\n·       How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett\r\n·       Loneliness – Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by  John T. Cacioppo  and William Patrick;\r\n·       Evocative Objects – Things we think with by by Sherry Turkle, Tod Machover, Carol Strohecker, Susan Yee and Mitchel Resnick.\r\nHer central point is that whether technology benefits you or damages you/your family/your relationships, etc depends on how well you use technology. These five books can show you how to use technology better.\r\nDan McAdams’ book highlights something called the interview process which one can use to optimise one’s use of social media: <em>“That interview process was developed by psychologist Dan McAdams, who wrote one of the books that I’ve recommended, The Stories We Live By. I first ask students to do that interview with themselves. It’s a pretty personal and in-depth thing just to acknowledge the major chapters, themes and struggles in one’s life. Next they integrate a description of the technologies that were significant at different points in their lives. Then they find points where their technology use might be either exacerbating certain struggles or certainly not helping them move on. They might recognize what Dan McAdams calls ‘a narrative rut.’ Then they can start thinking about what to do differently. So that’s a pretty explicit, deliberate approach.”</em>\r\nLisa Feldman Barrett turns the argument that technology influences us on its head. Instead she shows in her book how <em>“…we can become “the architects of our experiences.” She pushes against the idea that events trigger emotions in a predetermined way and suggests we find the most specific language possible to describe our experiences and feelings. This specificity may propel us to move forward from challenges in a constructive way…We are not just this objective summary of what has happened to us. We are our interpretations of things, and how we articulate them...</em> <em>Her work suggests that perhaps what’s going to really help a person is actually not technology that tells them how they’re feeling, but something that helps them articulate how they’re feeling.”</em>\r\nJohn Cacioppo’s book delves into an unusual subject. He focuses <em>“…tools to help people—particularly people in later life—reach out to others, or at least recognize that loneliness isn’t something that’s fixed and a necessary part of life. In one project for older adults and their caregivers, we depicted loneliness—or, on the flipside, social connectedness—in a visual display that looked like a solar system. It was driven by sensors and also a journal that they kept. In making this with interaction designers and developers, what I really wanted was to take some ideas about loneliness from John Cacioppo’s work and from ‘learned helplessness’ to show that things are changeable…Learned helplessness is when someone stops trying to change a negative situation after repeated failures. The situation is perceived as fixed or stable, part of an attributional style that’s associated with depression. In the case of his study, that would be the feeling that as one participant said at the start of the study ‘Loneliness is a part of old age and there’s nothing you can do about it.’</em>\r\n<em>We wanted to create feedback that immediately rewarded social effort. So that if the older adult made a phone call or sent an email or had someone over, the dynamic display immediately updated to reinforce that effort. It conveyed that they could change their social engagement through small steps.</em>\r\n<em>The other part of it is what you can do to bring about change. One of the things I found really interesting in John Cacioppo’s work is that loneliness isn’t exclusively about receiving social support. It’s about participating in different kinds of relationships and communities. Making small gestures for others and not expecting anything in return is one really positive path out of loneliness.”</em>\r\nSheryl Turkle and her colleagues’ book is a collection of essays about cherished objects. <em>“Turkle investigates and celebrates the attachment that we have to objects. The relationships with objects isn’t between one person and one thing. There are all these human relationships and stories that are entangled in our attachment to objects. That is why a lot of people are attached to their phones. It’s not about the device, it’s about the relationships and the validation that they can have access to through these devices. That’s why they’re so important to them, they are a touchpoint for all that human connection.</em>\r\n<em>There’s always the question, ‘Why are people spending so much time on their screens?’ I think maybe a slightly better question is, ‘What are they getting out of it?’ or ‘What are they seeking from their screens?’ There’s a search for a signal that I matter, or that people want to talk to me. It’s acknowledging that I’m desirable, I’m important, I’m significant to other people.</em>\r\n<em>That’s maybe a more fruitful conversation to have than just wondering how we get people to be less attached to their screens. Maybe kids need more validation, more world-opening experiences or more role models than those available to them in their local environments. Or maybe they just need more excitement. It’s about addressing those needs. Those are the kind of things we should be thinking about.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How To Use Technology And Not Be Used By It: A Psychologist’s Reading List', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1522-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:47:07', '2019-07-28 10:47:07', '', 1522, 'http://marcellus.in/1522-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1002, 1, '2018-11-18 04:01:49', '2018-11-18 04:01:49', 'Neuroscience has shown that the neurons in our brain gradually start dying from middle age and therefore our brain starts slowing down unless we keep it active by pushing it to learn new things. This heartwarming story from the Indian Express shows that ordinary Indians don’t need neuroscience to tell them such things. They figured out themselves that whatever be the odds and however old they might be, they will learn. In fact, they will learn first to read and write their native language even if they are 96 years old – as is the case with the heroine of this story, Karthyayani Amma (from Alappuzha in Kerala). Then they will learn English (Amma says “I want to learn more….I want to learn English next”).\r\n\r\n<em>“Karthyayani is among 60,000 people in the state who have been initiated into the world of letters through over half-a-dozen literacy schemes run by the Mission. An overwhelming number of them are, like Karthyayani, elderly women who have never gone to school. Having struggled through a major part of their lives and now in their sunset years, these women, huddled together in community centres and anganwadis, are discovering a whole new world — the magical loopiness of the Malayalam alphabet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Why didn’t I go to school? Because I was too busy bringing up my children,” says Karthyayani. For several decades, the mother of six worked as a casual cleaning worker at half a dozen temples in Cheppad in Alappuzha district.”</em>', 'Amma goes to school', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'amma-goes-to-school', '', '', '2019-06-26 10:58:23', '2019-06-26 10:58:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1002', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1003, 1, '2019-06-24 04:01:49', '2019-06-24 04:01:49', 'Neuroscience has shown that the neurons in our brain gradually start dying from middle age and therefore our brain starts slowing down unless we keep it active by pushing it to learn new things. This heartwarming story from the Indian Express shows that ordinary Indians don’t need neuroscience to tell them such things. They figured out themselves that whatever be the odds and however old they might be, they will learn. In fact, they will learn first to read and write their native language even if they are 96 years old – as is the case with the heroine of this story, Karthyayani Amma (from Alappuzha in Kerala). Then they will learn English (Amma says “I want to learn more….I want to learn English next”).\r\n\r\n<em>“Karthyayani is among 60,000 people in the state who have been initiated into the world of letters through over half-a-dozen literacy schemes run by the Mission. An overwhelming number of them are, like Karthyayani, elderly women who have never gone to school. Having struggled through a major part of their lives and now in their sunset years, these women, huddled together in community centres and anganwadis, are discovering a whole new world — the magical loopiness of the Malayalam alphabet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Why didn’t I go to school? Because I was too busy bringing up my children,” says Karthyayani. For several decades, the mother of six worked as a casual cleaning worker at half a dozen temples in Cheppad in Alappuzha district.”</em>', 'Amma goes to school', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1002-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:01:49', '2019-06-24 04:01:49', '', 1002, 'http://marcellus.in/1002-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1004, 1, '2018-11-18 04:03:38', '2018-11-18 04:03:38', 'For those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>', 'USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'usaid-monsanto-and-the-real-reason-behind-delhis-horrific-smoke-season', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:06:51', '2019-11-13 11:06:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1004', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1005, 1, '2019-06-24 04:03:38', '2019-06-24 04:03:38', 'For those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>', 'USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1004-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:03:38', '2019-06-24 04:03:38', '', 1004, 'http://marcellus.in/1004-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1006, 1, '2018-11-18 04:06:23', '2018-11-18 04:06:23', 'Harmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet “like a son”, because “I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn’t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, ‘Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?’ [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men’s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane’s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane’s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy’s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women’s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India’s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women’s game at large. The tournament’s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India – as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women’s sport final.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“She just raised the bar high enough to see what’s possible,” says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell</em>', 'The girl who took women’s cricket to the next level', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-girl-who-took-womens-cricket-to-the-next-level', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:05:24', '2019-11-13 11:05:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1006', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(999, 1, '2019-06-24 03:28:47', '2019-06-24 03:28:47', '<hr />\r\n\r\n<div id=\"wrapper\"><header>\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"top_header\">\r\n<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-12 col-md-12 col-lg-4 col-xl-4\"><a class=\"logo navbar-brand\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"><img title=\"Marcellus\" src=\"http://mshop.php-dev.in/marcellus/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/logo.png\" alt=\"Marcellus\" /></a></div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-12 col-md-12 col-lg-8 col-xl-8\">\r\n<div id=\"navigation\"><nav class=\"main-menu navbar navbar-expand-lg navbar-light bg-light\">\r\n<div id=\"navbarSupportedContent\" class=\"collapse navbar-collapse\">\r\n<div class=\"menu-main-menu-container\">\r\n<ul id=\"menu-main-menu\" class=\"menu\">\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-102\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-102\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Home</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-101\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-101\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/about-marcellus/\">About Marcellus</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-103\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-103\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/our-team/\">Our Team</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-9\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-custom menu-item-object-custom menu-item-has-children menu-item-9\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/23rd-june-2019/#\">Resources</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-107\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-107\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/media-coverage/\">Media Coverage</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-116\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-116\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">Jobs</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-113\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-113\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">Contact Us</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-637\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-637\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/products/\">Products</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-752\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-752\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/faqs/\">FAQs</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</nav></div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</header>\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\"><section class=\"media-banner-bg\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<h1 class=\"page-title-cus\">Three Longs &amp; Three Shorts</h1>\r\n</div>\r\n</section>\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n\r\n<em>Published on: 23rd June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>At the end of each week, we will share with you our favourite reads. We would be grateful if you could reciprocate. This week’s reads focus on how analytics helped transform a baseball team, the disappearance of cash in the digital world, how Amazon’s efficiency drive might be hurting labour, why promotions in your career might be over rated, the hottest place in India and how a janitor became VP at Frito-Lay.                  </strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6276076f8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik\r\nSource: The Ringer (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6857b7a685&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting</a>)\r\nIn this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: Scotland is on the front line in the fight against “cash deserts”</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: John Detrixhe\r\nSource: Quartz (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6adc7be2d1&amp;e=5648501957\">https://qz.com/1598949/scotlands-many-cash-deserts-result-from-bank-branch-closures/</a>)\r\nIn order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Long read: The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Malcolm Harris\r\nSource: Medium (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d0c14ee030&amp;e=5648501957\">https://medium.com/s/story/the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos-3e280baa045c</a> )\r\nIn our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Zachary Crockett\r\nSource: The Hustle (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=534a7d4da3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://thehustle.co/hot-cheetos-inventor/</a>)\r\nWhilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: The promotion curse</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Bartleby\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1bc4b172bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/business/2019/06/20/the-promotion-curse</a> )\r\nThe Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Short read: How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India’s hottest place</strong></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAuthor: Ritwik Sharma\r\nSource: Business Standard (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c5c5455cb3&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-india-s-hottest-place-119061401444_1.html</a>  )\r\n\r\nFor those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<aside id=\"sidebar\"></aside></div>\r\n<footer>\r\n<div class=\"footer-menu\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"menu-footer-menu-container\">\r\n<ul id=\"menu-footer-menu\" class=\"nav\">\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-208\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-208\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Home</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-207\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-207\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/about-marcellus/\">About Marcellus</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-205\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-205\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/our-team/\">Our Team</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-203\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-203\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">Resources</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-204\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-204\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/media-coverage/\">Media Coverage</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-206\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-206\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/jobs/\">Jobs</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-202\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-202\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">Contact Us</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-215\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-215\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/privacy-policy/\">Privacy Policy</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-214\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-214\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/terms-and-conditions/\">Terms and Conditions</a></li>\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-216\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-216\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/disclaimer/\">Disclaimer</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<section class=\"copyright-section\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n<div id=\"copyright\">2018 © Marcellus - 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(1007, 1, '2019-06-24 04:06:23', '2019-06-24 04:06:23', 'Harmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet “like a son”, because “I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn’t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, ‘Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?’ [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men’s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane’s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane’s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy’s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women’s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India’s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women’s game at large. The tournament’s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India – as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women’s sport final.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“She just raised the bar high enough to see what’s possible,” says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell</em>', 'The girl who took women’s cricket to the next level', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1006-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:06:23', '2019-06-24 04:06:23', '', 1006, 'http://marcellus.in/1006-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1008, 1, '2018-11-18 04:08:01', '2018-11-18 04:08:01', 'Last week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”.\r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest.\r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”</em>', 'Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'humanitys-calling-card-is-the-destruction-of-our-planet', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:03:25', '2019-11-13 11:03:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1008', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1009, 1, '2019-06-24 04:08:01', '2019-06-24 04:08:01', 'Last week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”.\r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest.\r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”</em>', 'Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1008-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:08:01', '2019-06-24 04:08:01', '', 1008, 'http://marcellus.in/1008-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1010, 1, '2018-11-18 04:09:09', '2018-11-18 04:09:09', '<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating.', 'Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'banks-race-to-launch-blockchain-trade-platforms', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1010', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1011, 1, '2019-06-24 04:09:09', '2019-06-24 04:09:09', '<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating.', 'Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1010-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:09:09', '2019-06-24 04:09:09', '', 1010, 'http://marcellus.in/1010-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1012, 1, '2018-11-18 04:10:35', '2018-11-18 04:10:35', 'Amazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">estimates</a>have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-amazons-search-for-a-second-headquarters-backfired', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:00:05', '2019-11-13 11:00:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1012', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1013, 1, '2019-06-24 04:10:35', '2019-06-24 04:10:35', 'Amazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">estimates</a>have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1012-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:10:35', '2019-06-24 04:10:35', '', 1012, 'http://marcellus.in/1012-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1014, 1, '2018-11-11 04:14:46', '2018-11-11 04:14:46', 'Even well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education.', 'Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'business-education-the-waning-popularity-of-the-american-mba', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:18:02', '2019-11-13 11:18:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1014', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1015, 1, '2019-06-24 04:14:46', '2019-06-24 04:14:46', 'Even well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education.', 'Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1014-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:14:46', '2019-06-24 04:14:46', '', 1014, 'http://marcellus.in/1014-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1016, 1, '2019-06-24 04:14:51', '2019-06-24 04:14:51', 'Even well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\n\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\n\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\n\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education.', 'Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1014-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:14:51', '2019-06-24 04:14:51', '', 1014, 'http://marcellus.in/1014-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1017, 1, '2018-11-11 04:16:12', '2018-11-11 04:16:12', 'As the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on.\r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>', 'The rickety house of Paytm', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-rickety-house-of-paytm', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:16:42', '2019-11-13 11:16:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1017', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1018, 1, '2019-06-24 04:16:12', '2019-06-24 04:16:12', 'As the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on.\r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>', 'The rickety house of Paytm', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:16:12', '2019-06-24 04:16:12', '', 1017, 'http://marcellus.in/1017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1019, 1, '2018-11-11 04:17:01', '2018-11-11 04:17:01', 'At Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication.', 'The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-new-atlanta-billionaires-behind-an-unlikely-tech-unicorn', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:11:56', '2019-11-13 11:11:56', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1019', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1020, 1, '2019-06-24 04:17:01', '2019-06-24 04:17:01', 'At Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication.', 'The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1019-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:17:01', '2019-06-24 04:17:01', '', 1019, 'http://marcellus.in/1019-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1021, 1, '2018-11-11 04:18:13', '2018-11-11 04:18:13', 'In 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book.\r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world.', 'How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-a-welsh-schoolgirl-disrupted-the-publishing-world', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:10:42', '2019-11-13 11:10:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1021', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1022, 1, '2019-06-24 04:18:13', '2019-06-24 04:18:13', 'In 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book.\r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world.', 'How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1021-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:18:13', '2019-06-24 04:18:13', '', 1021, 'http://marcellus.in/1021-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1023, 1, '2018-11-11 04:19:08', '2018-11-11 04:19:08', 'Moore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>', 'As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'as-moores-law-fades-computing-seeks-a-new-dimension', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:08:38', '2019-11-13 11:08:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1023', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1024, 1, '2019-06-24 04:19:08', '2019-06-24 04:19:08', 'Moore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>', 'As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1023-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:19:08', '2019-06-24 04:19:08', '', 1023, 'http://marcellus.in/1023-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1028, 1, '2018-11-04 04:23:05', '2018-11-04 04:23:05', 'Shudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population.\r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy.\r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins &amp; Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins &amp; Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way.\r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.\r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>', 'Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'where-are-the-shudras-why-the-shudras-are-lost-in-todays-india', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:30:38', '2019-11-13 11:30:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1028', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1029, 1, '2019-06-24 04:23:05', '2019-06-24 04:23:05', 'Shudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population.\r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy.\r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins &amp; Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins &amp; Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way.\r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.\r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>', 'Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1028-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:23:05', '2019-06-24 04:23:05', '', 1028, 'http://marcellus.in/1028-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1030, 1, '2019-06-23 04:24:29', '2019-06-23 04:24:29', 'The car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart.\r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe.\r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'germanys-profitable-automakers-are-being-hit-quicker-than-expected-by-the-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-diesel-bans-and-the-us-china-trade-war', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:06:28', '2019-11-06 11:06:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1030', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1031, 1, '2019-06-24 04:24:29', '2019-06-24 04:24:29', 'The car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart.\r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe.\r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants.', 'Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1030-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:24:29', '2019-06-24 04:24:29', '', 1030, 'http://marcellus.in/1030-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1032, 1, '2018-11-04 04:25:58', '2018-11-04 04:25:58', 'In case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place:\r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?”\r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move.\r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet.\r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence.\r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>', 'Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'government-versus-rbi-dissent-at-the-podium', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:29:24', '2019-11-13 11:29:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1032', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1033, 1, '2019-06-24 04:25:58', '2019-06-24 04:25:58', 'In case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place:\r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?”\r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move.\r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet.\r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence.\r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>', 'Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1032-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:25:58', '2019-06-24 04:25:58', '', 1032, 'http://marcellus.in/1032-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1034, 1, '2018-11-04 04:26:50', '2018-11-04 04:26:50', 'Elaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&amp;P 500.”</em>', 'Keep it simple, silly', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'keep-it-simple-silly', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:24:38', '2019-11-13 11:24:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1034', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1035, 1, '2019-06-24 04:26:50', '2019-06-24 04:26:50', 'Elaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&amp;P 500.”</em>', 'Keep it simple, silly', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1034-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:26:50', '2019-06-24 04:26:50', '', 1034, 'http://marcellus.in/1034-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1036, 1, '2018-11-04 04:28:57', '2018-11-04 04:28:57', 'As Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'A business ethics class from Australian cricket', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-business-ethics-class-from-australian-cricket', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:21:45', '2019-11-13 11:21:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1036', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1037, 1, '2019-06-24 04:28:57', '2019-06-24 04:28:57', 'As Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'A business ethics class from Australian cricket', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1036-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:28:57', '2019-06-24 04:28:57', '', 1036, 'http://marcellus.in/1036-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1038, 1, '2018-12-30 04:35:56', '2018-12-30 04:35:56', 'In case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy.\r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>', 'Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:30:36', '2019-11-13 06:30:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1038', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1039, 1, '2019-06-24 04:35:56', '2019-06-24 04:35:56', 'In case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy.\r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>', 'Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1038-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:35:56', '2019-06-24 04:35:56', '', 1038, 'http://marcellus.in/1038-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1040, 1, '2019-06-24 04:36:02', '2019-06-24 04:36:02', 'In case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\n\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy.\n\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\n\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\n\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\n\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\n\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\n\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\n\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\n\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\n\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\n\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\n\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>', 'Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1038-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:36:02', '2019-06-24 04:36:02', '', 1038, 'http://marcellus.in/1038-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1041, 1, '2018-12-30 04:37:52', '2018-12-30 04:37:52', '<hr />\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client.\r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article.', 'How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-mckinsey-has-helped-raise-the-stature-of-authoritarian-governments', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1041', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1042, 1, '2019-06-24 04:37:52', '2019-06-24 04:37:52', '<hr />\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client.\r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article.', 'How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1041-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:37:52', '2019-06-24 04:37:52', '', 1041, 'http://marcellus.in/1041-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1043, 1, '2018-12-30 04:39:42', '2018-12-30 04:39:42', 'For the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show’s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and ’80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can’t remember where you know them from. It has moments you’re not sure you’ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn’t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn’t just any episode. It’s an “interactive film”—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via “state tracking,” a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But “much smaller” is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>', 'How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-surprise-new-interactive-black-mirror-came-together', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:27:44', '2019-11-13 06:27:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1043', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1044, 1, '2019-06-24 04:39:42', '2019-06-24 04:39:42', 'For the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show’s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and ’80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can’t remember where you know them from. It has moments you’re not sure you’ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn’t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn’t just any episode. It’s an “interactive film”—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via “state tracking,” a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But “much smaller” is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>', 'How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1043-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:39:42', '2019-06-24 04:39:42', '', 1043, 'http://marcellus.in/1043-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1045, 1, '2018-12-30 04:42:01', '2018-12-30 04:42:01', 'We know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>', 'People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'people-who-exercise-have-different-proteins-moving-through-their-bloodstreams-than-those-who-are-generally-sedentary', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:26:08', '2019-11-13 06:26:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1045', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1046, 1, '2019-06-24 04:42:01', '2019-06-24 04:42:01', 'We know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>', 'People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1045-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:42:01', '2019-06-24 04:42:01', '', 1045, 'http://marcellus.in/1045-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1047, 1, '2018-12-30 04:44:17', '2018-12-30 04:44:17', 'John Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>', 'Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'wedding-excess-has-reached-giddy-new-heights', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:24:43', '2019-11-13 06:24:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1047', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1048, 1, '2019-06-24 04:44:17', '2019-06-24 04:44:17', 'John Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>', 'Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1047-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:44:17', '2019-06-24 04:44:17', '', 1047, 'http://marcellus.in/1047-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1049, 1, '2019-06-24 04:44:52', '2019-06-24 04:44:52', 'John Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>', 'Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1047-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:44:52', '2019-06-24 04:44:52', '', 1047, 'http://marcellus.in/1047-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1050, 1, '2018-12-30 04:46:02', '2018-12-30 04:46:02', 'An introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….\r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'My life as an oracle', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'my-life-as-an-oracle', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:23:06', '2019-11-13 06:23:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1050', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1051, 1, '2019-06-24 04:46:02', '2019-06-24 04:46:02', 'An introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….\r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'My life as an oracle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1050-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:46:02', '2019-06-24 04:46:02', '', 1050, 'http://marcellus.in/1050-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1052, 1, '2018-12-23 04:53:31', '2018-12-23 04:53:31', 'A variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere &amp; Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.', 'FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ft-big-read-agritech-disrupters-take-root', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:42:01', '2019-11-13 09:42:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1052', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1053, 1, '2019-06-24 04:53:31', '2019-06-24 04:53:31', 'A variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere &amp; Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.', 'FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1052-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:53:31', '2019-06-24 04:53:31', '', 1052, 'http://marcellus.in/1052-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1054, 1, '2018-12-23 04:54:08', '2018-12-23 04:54:08', '<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'passive-attack-the-story-of-a-wall-street-revolution', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:11:54', '2019-06-26 11:11:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1054', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1055, 1, '2019-06-24 04:54:08', '2019-06-24 04:54:08', '<em>For those interested in knowing everything about arguably the greatest financial innovation of the past century – passive investing, this piece delivers it – from the origins to mass market commercialisation to the risks it might pose in the future. A balanced piece with some gems from the man himself, John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard (who according to the article was preceded by over a dozen pioneers ranging from Eugene Fama to Paul Samuelson, who contributed to the birth of passive investing). The common thread among these people was the belief that investing was science than anything else.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Index funds have revolutionised investing, saving millions of people untold billions of dollars in fees that would otherwise have gone to fund managers with a dismal long-term record of actually beating the market. It is no exaggeration to say that the rise of passive investing is probably one of the most consequential financial inventions of the past half-century. It is rewiring markets and reshaping the finance industry….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The University of Chicago and MIT were at the centre of this nascent financial-academic revolution. In 1965 Eugene Fama, the famed Chicago economist, first articulated his “efficient markets” hypothesis, which stipulated that securities fully reflect all known information, and the market cannot be beaten. But even for those who believe that markets are inefficient, there is a simple, inescapable mathematical truth: the market is made up of investors, so the average investor cannot do better than the market. For every one that beats it, someone else must fall short.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…And when the cost of trading and the fees charged by a fund manager are factored in, the average investor will, in fact, underperform the wider market, points out Burton Malkiel, the Princeton economics professor and author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Some skilled managers might beat the market in any given year — or maybe even over a decade — but identifying consistent stars has proven to be tricky both in theory and practice. “The intellectual case for indexing is airtight,” Malkiel says.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“He suggested that Mellon start an index fund, but his boss was underwhelmed. “He accused me of trying to turn his job into a science,” Fouse recalls. “So I fled.””</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….(John)Bogle admits that he was a zealot. “It was a crusade. If you really believe in something, you have to become a preacher,” he says. “I believed the numbers would ultimately tell. The superiority of the index is guaranteed. The math will never let you down.” By the end of 1976, the Vanguard fund still languished with $14m. But in 1982, it crossed $100m. By 1988 the fund boasted $1bn. By 1996 it crossed $10bn. Today the now-renamed Vanguard 500 Index Fund manages more than $400bn…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…In a 2016 tribute to “a real f**king people’s hero”, the writer Hamilton Nolan said: “John Bogle founded a multitrillion-dollar investment firm and did not use it to make himself into a multibillionaire but instead used it to produce a good product at a fair price that saves money for everyone who uses it.”Bogle says he appreciated Nolan’s sentiment — if not the strong language — and bristles with pride over Vanguard, even if it didn’t bring him the financial rewards that other investment behemoths have brought their founders. “What do I need a private jet for? I need my wife to drive me around. It doesn’t do my psyche any good to know that I have more than someone else,” he says. “I’m very comfortable with what I’ve done for the world.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The sheer force of flows into these funds has been an important driver of the relative outperformance of indexed assets. When these flows reverse, or even pause, the effects could be just as impactful on relative prices, but in reverse, and possibly more abrupt and intense.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Every great invention comes with side effects that should be recognised and addressed. Within the foreseeable future, they could hold a commanding vote in most major US public companies — a development that worries even Bogle.“Is that good for capitalism?” he questions. “It’s hard to know how big we can get, and the consequences. But it does raise issues that we need to address. We cannot ignore them. But to solve this we should not destroy the greatest invention in the history of finance.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Passive attack: the story of a Wall Street revolution', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1054-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:54:08', '2019-06-24 04:54:08', '', 1054, 'http://marcellus.in/1054-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1056, 1, '2018-12-23 04:54:56', '2018-12-23 04:54:56', 'Looking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to avoid burnout this Christmas', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-avoid-burnout-this-christmas', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:36:54', '2019-11-13 09:36:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1056', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1057, 1, '2019-06-24 04:54:56', '2019-06-24 04:54:56', 'Looking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to avoid burnout this Christmas', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1056-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 04:54:56', '2019-06-24 04:54:56', '', 1056, 'http://marcellus.in/1056-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1058, 1, '2018-12-23 05:12:23', '2018-12-23 05:12:23', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Blade sets course for congested cities in India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blade-sets-course-for-congested-cities-in-india', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1058', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1059, 1, '2019-06-24 05:12:23', '2019-06-24 05:12:23', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Blade sets course for congested cities in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1058-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:12:23', '2019-06-24 05:12:23', '', 1058, 'http://marcellus.in/1058-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1060, 1, '2018-12-23 05:25:15', '2018-12-23 05:25:15', 'This graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ft-big-read-india-the-most-polluted-place-on-earth', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:34:19', '2019-11-13 09:34:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1060', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1061, 1, '2019-06-24 05:25:15', '2019-06-24 05:25:15', 'This graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1060-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:25:15', '2019-06-24 05:25:15', '', 1060, 'http://marcellus.in/1060-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1062, 1, '2018-12-23 05:26:07', '2018-12-23 05:26:07', 'A video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job – <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-our-elitist-reaction-to-the-zomato-delivery-man-tells-us-about-our-lack-of-empathy', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:31:54', '2019-11-13 06:31:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1062', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1063, 1, '2019-06-24 05:26:07', '2019-06-24 05:26:07', 'A video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job – <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1062-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:26:07', '2019-06-24 05:26:07', '', 1062, 'http://marcellus.in/1062-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1064, 1, '2018-12-16 05:34:53', '2018-12-16 05:34:53', 'Christopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics – talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>', 'Christopher Wylie – what happens next?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'christopher-wylie-what-happens-next', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:10:05', '2019-11-13 10:10:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1064', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1065, 1, '2019-06-24 05:34:53', '2019-06-24 05:34:53', 'Christopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics – talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>', 'Christopher Wylie – what happens next?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1064-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:34:53', '2019-06-24 05:34:53', '', 1064, 'http://marcellus.in/1064-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1066, 1, '2019-06-24 05:35:13', '2019-06-24 05:35:13', 'Christopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics – talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\n\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\n\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>', 'Christopher Wylie – what happens next?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1064-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:35:13', '2019-06-24 05:35:13', '', 1064, 'http://marcellus.in/1064-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1067, 1, '2018-12-16 05:38:17', '2018-12-16 05:38:17', 'The revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”</em>\r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research &amp; academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Jim Simons – the Numbers King', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'jim-simons-the-numbers-king', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:03:18', '2019-11-13 10:03:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1067', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1068, 1, '2019-06-24 05:38:17', '2019-06-24 05:38:17', 'The revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”</em>\r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research &amp; academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Jim Simons – the Numbers King', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1067-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:38:17', '2019-06-24 05:38:17', '', 1067, 'http://marcellus.in/1067-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1069, 1, '2019-06-24 05:38:20', '2019-06-24 05:38:20', 'The revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\n\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\n\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\n\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”</em>\n\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research &amp; academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.\n\n&nbsp;', 'Jim Simons – the Numbers King', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1067-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:38:20', '2019-06-24 05:38:20', '', 1067, 'http://marcellus.in/1067-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1070, 1, '2018-12-16 05:39:39', '2018-12-16 05:39:39', 'An investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla’s Production Hell', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dr-elon-mr-musk-life-inside-teslas-production-hell', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:01:00', '2019-11-13 10:01:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1070', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1071, 1, '2019-06-24 05:39:39', '2019-06-24 05:39:39', 'An investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla’s Production Hell', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1070-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:39:39', '2019-06-24 05:39:39', '', 1070, 'http://marcellus.in/1070-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1072, 1, '2018-12-16 05:40:50', '2018-12-16 05:40:50', 'Simon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why northern Europe is the new American dream?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-northern-europe-is-the-new-american-dream', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:59:35', '2019-11-13 09:59:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1072', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1073, 1, '2019-06-24 05:40:50', '2019-06-24 05:40:50', 'Simon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why northern Europe is the new American dream?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1072-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:40:50', '2019-06-24 05:40:50', '', 1072, 'http://marcellus.in/1072-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1074, 1, '2018-12-16 05:42:04', '2018-12-16 05:42:04', 'A wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The State of Being Stuck', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-state-of-being-stuck', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:57:06', '2019-11-13 09:57:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1074', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1075, 1, '2019-06-24 05:42:04', '2019-06-24 05:42:04', 'A wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The State of Being Stuck', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1074-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:42:04', '2019-06-24 05:42:04', '', 1074, 'http://marcellus.in/1074-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1076, 1, '2018-12-16 05:42:55', '2018-12-16 05:42:55', 'There is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lifting-weights-has-a-surprising-effect-on-mental-health', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:55:46', '2019-11-13 09:55:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1076', 0, 'story', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1077, 1, '2019-06-24 05:42:55', '2019-06-24 05:42:55', 'There is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1076-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:42:55', '2019-06-24 05:42:55', '', 1076, 'http://marcellus.in/1076-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1078, 1, '2018-12-09 05:44:22', '2018-12-09 05:44:22', 'In this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.', 'Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'three-lessons-in-decision-making-from-a-poker-champion', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:20:30', '2019-11-13 10:20:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1078', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1079, 1, '2019-06-24 05:44:22', '2019-06-24 05:44:22', 'In this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.', 'Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1078-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:44:22', '2019-06-24 05:44:22', '', 1078, 'http://marcellus.in/1078-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1080, 1, '2018-12-09 05:45:20', '2018-12-09 05:45:20', 'No, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind.\r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>', 'The Friendship That Made Google Huge', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-friendship-that-made-google-huge', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:19:09', '2019-11-13 10:19:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1080', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1081, 1, '2019-06-24 05:45:20', '2019-06-24 05:45:20', 'No, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind.\r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>', 'The Friendship That Made Google Huge', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1080-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:45:20', '2019-06-24 05:45:20', '', 1080, 'http://marcellus.in/1080-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1082, 1, '2018-12-09 05:47:03', '2018-12-09 05:47:03', 'This New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>', 'Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'be-afraid-of-economic-bigness-be-very-afraid', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:16:19', '2019-11-13 10:16:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1082', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1083, 1, '2019-06-24 05:47:03', '2019-06-24 05:47:03', 'This New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>', 'Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1082-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:47:03', '2019-06-24 05:47:03', '', 1082, 'http://marcellus.in/1082-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1084, 1, '2018-12-09 05:48:04', '2018-12-09 05:48:04', 'Bilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset.\r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing.\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector.', 'Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bilfinger-launches-youtube-style-skills-videos', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:15:02', '2019-11-13 10:15:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1084', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1085, 1, '2019-06-24 05:48:04', '2019-06-24 05:48:04', 'Bilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset.\r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing.\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector.', 'Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1084-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:48:04', '2019-06-24 05:48:04', '', 1084, 'http://marcellus.in/1084-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1086, 1, '2018-12-09 05:49:00', '2018-12-09 05:49:00', 'The genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science.\r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.”</em>', 'Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'intelligence-profiling-opens-up-uber-parenting-potential', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:13:33', '2019-11-13 10:13:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1086', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1087, 1, '2019-06-24 05:49:00', '2019-06-24 05:49:00', 'The genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science.\r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.”</em>', 'Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1086-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:49:00', '2019-06-24 05:49:00', '', 1086, 'http://marcellus.in/1086-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1088, 1, '2018-12-09 05:50:05', '2018-12-09 05:50:05', 'Airbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts… While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', 'Airbnb will start designing – and selling – homes', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'airbnb-will-start-designing-and-selling-homes', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:12:07', '2019-11-13 10:12:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1088', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1089, 1, '2019-06-24 05:50:05', '2019-06-24 05:50:05', 'Airbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts… While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', 'Airbnb will start designing – and selling – homes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1088-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:50:05', '2019-06-24 05:50:05', '', 1088, 'http://marcellus.in/1088-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1090, 1, '2019-06-24 05:50:09', '2019-06-24 05:50:09', 'Airbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts… While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\n\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', 'Airbnb will start designing – and selling – homes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1088-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 05:50:09', '2019-06-24 05:50:09', '', 1088, 'http://marcellus.in/1088-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1091, 1, '2018-12-02 06:08:26', '2018-12-02 06:08:26', 'As a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'adm-mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:49:43', '2019-11-13 10:49:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1091', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1092, 1, '2019-06-24 06:08:26', '2019-06-24 06:08:26', 'As a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1091-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:08:26', '2019-06-24 06:08:26', '', 1091, 'http://marcellus.in/1091-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1093, 1, '2018-12-02 06:09:54', '2018-12-02 06:09:54', 'Canadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>', 'Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'extreme-athleticism-is-the-new-midlife-crisis', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:38:29', '2019-11-13 10:38:29', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1093', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1094, 1, '2019-06-24 06:09:54', '2019-06-24 06:09:54', 'Canadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>', 'Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1093-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:09:54', '2019-06-24 06:09:54', '', 1093, 'http://marcellus.in/1093-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2676, 1, '2020-01-06 04:35:20', '2020-01-06 04:35:20', 'Given that many of us have spent our Christmas break speaking to friends and relatives who are either worried about the CAA-NRC turmoil in India or are exultant about India’s turn to the Right, we felt it is worth beginning the New Year on a positive note. We believe that this too shall pass, that the Indian Republic will emerge from its current examination stronger, not weaker. We shall overcome. Some of our reasons for optimism are echoed by this piece in the New York Times. Whilst Ms Kakutani’s piece is about USA and Trump, you can replace these proper nouns with Indian ones to understand why the Indian republic too can follow a similar path as the American one.\r\nThe first strand of optimism arises from the fact that American history reveals the rise of the Right to be episodic as opposed to being structural. Historian Richard Hofstadter calls Trump’s style of leadership “the paranoid style”.<em> “The “paranoid style,” Hofstadter observed, tends to occur in “episodic waves.” The modern right wing, he wrote, feels dispossessed: “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it.” In their view, “the old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals,” and national independence has been “destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners but major statesmen seated at the very centers of American power.”</em>\r\n<em>One well-known eruption of the “paranoid style” occurred in the 1950s with the anti-Communist hysteria led by Joseph McCarthy. It would surface again in the 1960s with the emergence on the national stage of George C. Wallace, who ran a presidential campaign fueled by racism and white working-class rage.</em>\r\n<em>In his 2018 book “The Soul of America,” the historian Jon Meacham also wrote about the cycles of hope and fear in American history, emphasizing the role that presidents play in setting a tone for the country and defining — or undermining — its founding ideals. He wrote about presidents who have worked to unify the country and appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature,” and those who have courted discord and division.</em>\r\n<em>Lincoln was followed in office by his vice president Andrew Johnson, a champion of white supremacy who pardoned more than 7,000 Confederates and opposed the 14th Amendment. Johnson was impeached in 1868…”</em>\r\nSecondly, extremist sentiments rise when the economy is under the pump and such sentiments abate when prosperity becomes more widespread. <em>“Mr. Meacham note that “extremism, racism, nativism, and isolationism, driven by fear of the unknown, tend to spike in periods of economic and social stress.” Periods, that is, like our own, when change of every sort is blowing across the globe.</em>\r\n<em>The event that turned people’s sense of dislocation and disillusionment into populist anger on both the right (the Tea Party) and the left (Occupy Wall Street and, later, Bernie Sanders’s candidacy) was the 2008 financial crisis. Trust in government had been in sharp decline in previous decades — driven by Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, and more recently by the invasion of Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction there…But the lingering fallout of the 2008 crash — growing income inequality, declining social mobility and dwindling job security — ignited rage against the elites and the status quo.</em>\r\n<em>While the banks were bailed out and the fortunate 1 percent soon made back its losses (and more), working- and middle-class voters struggled to make up lost ground.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the incompetence of paranoid, authoritarian right wing rulers sows the seeds of their own demise. <em>“As a candidate, Mr. Trump sold himself as the champion of such voters — whom he called “the forgotten men and women” — and he promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. But once in office, he enlarged the swamp, hiring some 281 lobbyists, and set about cutting taxes for corporations and the very rich.</em>\r\n<em>He also began a war on the institutions that were the very pillars of the government he now headed. In early 2017, Mr. Trump’s then adviser and strategist Steve Bannon vowed that the administration would wage a tireless battle for the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and the administration has done so ever since — nihilistically trying to undermine public faith in the efficacy, the professionalism, even the mission of the institutions that are crucial for guarding our national security, negotiating with foreign governments and ensuring the safety of our environment and workplaces. Mr. Trump also launched chilling attacks on those he reviled — from the F.B.I. to the judiciary — for having failed to put loyalty to him ahead of loyalty to the Constitution.</em>\r\n<em>This is familiar behavior among authoritarians and would-be dictators, who resent constitutional checks and balances, and who want to make themselves the sole arbiters of truth and reality. A reporter said that in 2016 when she asked Mr. Trump why he continually assailed the press, he replied: “I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.”…</em>\r\n<em>One of the terrible ironies of Mr. Trump’s presidency is that his administration’s dysfunction — little to no policymaking process on many issues, impulsive decision-making, contempt for expertise and plunging morale at beleaguered agencies — creates a toxic feedback loop that further undermines public trust in the government and lends momentum to his desire to eviscerate the “deep state.” The conflicts of interest that swirl around Mr. Trump and his cronies further increase the public’s perception of corruption and unfairness.”</em>', 'The 2010s Were the End of Normal - How social media, the Great Recession and Donald Trump combined to bring out the ‘indigenous American berserk.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2672-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:35:20', '2020-01-06 04:35:20', '', 2672, 'https://marcellus.in/2672-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1097, 1, '2018-12-02 06:11:53', '2018-12-02 06:11:53', 'Across the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China.', 'Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'will-uk-house-prices-ever-rise-again', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:36:19', '2019-11-13 10:36:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1097', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1098, 1, '2019-06-24 06:11:53', '2019-06-24 06:11:53', 'Across the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China.', 'Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1097-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:11:53', '2019-06-24 06:11:53', '', 1097, 'http://marcellus.in/1097-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1099, 1, '2018-12-02 06:13:12', '2018-12-02 06:13:12', 'In this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>', 'Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-central-bank-digital-currencies-will-destroy-cryptocurrencies', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:34:58', '2019-11-13 10:34:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1099', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1100, 1, '2019-06-24 06:13:12', '2019-06-24 06:13:12', 'In this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>', 'Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1099-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:13:12', '2019-06-24 06:13:12', '', 1099, 'http://marcellus.in/1099-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1101, 1, '2018-12-02 06:14:07', '2018-12-02 06:14:07', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<aside id=\"sidebar\"></aside></div>\r\n<footer>\r\n<div class=\"footer-menu\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"menu-footer-menu-container\">\r\n<ul id=\"menu-footer-menu\" class=\"nav\">\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-208\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-208\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Home</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</footer>', 'Why my generation is the last of the hedonists', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-my-generation-is-the-last-of-the-hedonists', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1101', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1102, 1, '2019-06-24 06:14:07', '2019-06-24 06:14:07', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<aside id=\"sidebar\"></aside></div>\r\n<footer>\r\n<div class=\"footer-menu\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"menu-footer-menu-container\">\r\n<ul id=\"menu-footer-menu\" class=\"nav\">\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-208\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-208\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Home</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</footer>', 'Why my generation is the last of the hedonists', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1101-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:14:07', '2019-06-24 06:14:07', '', 1101, 'http://marcellus.in/1101-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1103, 1, '2019-01-20 06:16:57', '2019-01-20 06:16:57', 'In this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup>century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.', 'Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'shareholders-dethroned-as-rulers-of-value', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:56:33', '2019-11-13 05:56:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1103', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1104, 1, '2019-06-24 06:16:57', '2019-06-24 06:16:57', 'In this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup>century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.', 'Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1103-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:16:57', '2019-06-24 06:16:57', '', 1103, 'http://marcellus.in/1103-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1105, 1, '2019-01-20 06:18:07', '2019-01-20 06:18:07', 'The single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“…the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>', 'Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'volatility-how-algos-changed-the-rhythm-of-the-market', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:52:45', '2019-11-13 05:52:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1105', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1106, 1, '2019-06-24 06:18:07', '2019-06-24 06:18:07', 'The single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“…the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>', 'Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1105-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:18:07', '2019-06-24 06:18:07', '', 1105, 'http://marcellus.in/1105-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1107, 1, '2019-01-20 06:19:23', '2019-01-20 06:19:23', 'From patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.', 'I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'i-saw-the-making-of-cheteshwar-pujara', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:51:43', '2019-11-13 05:51:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1107', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1108, 1, '2019-06-24 06:19:23', '2019-06-24 06:19:23', 'From patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.', 'I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1107-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:19:23', '2019-06-24 06:19:23', '', 1107, 'http://marcellus.in/1107-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1109, 1, '2019-01-20 06:36:22', '2019-01-20 06:36:22', 'Esquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>', 'Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:50:38', '2019-11-13 05:50:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1109', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1110, 1, '2019-06-24 06:36:22', '2019-06-24 06:36:22', 'Esquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>', 'Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1109-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:36:22', '2019-06-24 06:36:22', '', 1109, 'http://marcellus.in/1109-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1111, 1, '2019-01-20 06:37:12', '2019-01-20 06:37:12', 'We had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'jack-bogle-the-selfless-preacher-of-the-passive-revolution', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:49:17', '2019-11-13 05:49:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1111', 0, 'story', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1112, 1, '2019-06-24 06:37:12', '2019-06-24 06:37:12', 'We had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1111-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:37:12', '2019-06-24 06:37:12', '', 1111, 'http://marcellus.in/1111-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1113, 1, '2019-01-20 06:38:14', '2019-01-20 06:38:14', 'Rohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery – 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-you-gotta-love-jasprit-bumrah', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:47:43', '2019-11-13 05:47:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1113', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1114, 1, '2019-06-24 06:38:14', '2019-06-24 06:38:14', 'Rohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery – 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1113-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:38:14', '2019-06-24 06:38:14', '', 1113, 'http://marcellus.in/1113-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1115, 1, '2019-01-13 06:42:55', '2019-01-13 06:42:55', '“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?… Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>', 'Blowing up – How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blowing-up-how-nassim-taleb-turned-the-inevitability-of-disaster-into-an-investment-strategy', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1115', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1116, 1, '2019-06-24 06:42:55', '2019-06-24 06:42:55', '“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?… Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>', 'Blowing up – How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1115-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:42:55', '2019-06-24 06:42:55', '', 1115, 'http://marcellus.in/1115-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1117, 1, '2019-01-13 06:44:09', '2019-01-13 06:44:09', 'In case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.\r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.', 'Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bitter-bill-indias-transgender-community-is-going-to-be-policed-by-a-bill-which-gives-the-government-the-right-to-examine-their-bodies', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:09:29', '2019-11-13 06:09:29', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1117', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1118, 1, '2019-06-24 06:44:09', '2019-06-24 06:44:09', 'In case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.\r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.', 'Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1117-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:44:09', '2019-06-24 06:44:09', '', 1117, 'http://marcellus.in/1117-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1119, 1, '2019-06-24 06:44:13', '2019-06-24 06:44:13', 'In case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.”</em>\n\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.\n\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\n\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.', 'Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1117-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:44:13', '2019-06-24 06:44:13', '', 1117, 'http://marcellus.in/1117-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1120, 1, '2019-01-13 06:45:06', '2019-01-13 06:45:06', 'More of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability.\r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is …academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.”</em>', 'IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:04:16', '2019-11-13 06:04:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1120', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1121, 1, '2019-06-24 06:45:06', '2019-06-24 06:45:06', 'More of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability.\r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is …academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.”</em>', 'IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1120-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:45:06', '2019-06-24 06:45:06', '', 1120, 'http://marcellus.in/1120-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1122, 1, '2019-01-13 06:45:58', '2019-01-13 06:45:58', 'In case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook’s advertising networks. That’s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app’s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook’s advertising networks….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook – the owner of WhatsApp – in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers – that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly – advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: ‘It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.’”</em>', 'WhatsApp’s child porn problem: Google and Facebook’s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'whatsapps-child-porn-problem-google-and-facebooks-ad-networks-funded-apps-that-led-users-to-groups-on-the-private-messenger-that-are-dedicated-to-swapping-illegal-images', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:31:12', '2019-06-26 11:31:12', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1122', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1123, 1, '2019-06-24 06:45:58', '2019-06-24 06:45:58', 'In case you thought that the worst thing about social media is that it allows facists and religious fundamentals to spread hatred, think again. In the last week of December two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, published research showing that WhatsApp is now the favoured method to circulate child porn.\r\n\r\n<em>“WhatsApp is being used to distribute child porn via third party apps that have received funding from Google and Facebook’s advertising networks. That’s the finding of an investigation into the growing problem of illegal images of children on the instant messaging service. Paedophiles have been abusing the protection offered by the app’s data encryption to spread vile images of abuse on private groups. These groups can be discovered through specially created third-party software, which offenders use to seek them out, that can be downloaded from app stores. Now it has been discovered that these third-party apps were receiving funding via Google and Facebook’s advertising networks….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The true scale of the problem emerged after Israeli researchers warned Facebook – the owner of WhatsApp – in September how easy it was to find and join group chats dedicated to the spread of child pornography.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In some cases, up to 256 people were sharing sexual images and videos of children, according to reports in the Financial Times (FT).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The matter escalated in recent weeks when two charities in Israel dedicated to online safety, Netivei Reshet and Screensaverz, made their findings public. Over the course of several months they discovered identifiers – that were not encrypted and able to be viewed publicly – advertising the disturbing contents of said groups.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking to the FT on December 20, Netivei Reshet’s Yona Pressburger said: ‘It is a disaster: this sort of material was once mostly found on the darknet, but now it’s on WhatsApp.’”</em>', 'WhatsApp’s child porn problem: Google and Facebook’s ad networks funded apps that led users to groups on the private messenger that are dedicated to swapping illegal images', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1122-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:45:58', '2019-06-24 06:45:58', '', 1122, 'http://marcellus.in/1122-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1124, 1, '2019-01-13 06:46:56', '2019-01-13 06:46:56', 'Milk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>', 'Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'oat-milk-sales-surge-as-more-consumers-go-dairy-free', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:01:05', '2019-11-13 06:01:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1124', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1125, 1, '2019-06-24 06:46:56', '2019-06-24 06:46:56', 'Milk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>', 'Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1124-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:46:56', '2019-06-24 06:46:56', '', 1124, 'http://marcellus.in/1124-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1126, 1, '2019-01-13 06:47:50', '2019-01-13 06:47:50', 'The article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much – read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Why people prefer bad news', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-people-prefer-bad-news', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:58:09', '2019-11-13 05:58:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1126', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1127, 1, '2019-06-24 06:47:50', '2019-06-24 06:47:50', 'The article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much – read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Why people prefer bad news', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1126-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:47:50', '2019-06-24 06:47:50', '', 1126, 'http://marcellus.in/1126-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1128, 1, '2019-01-06 06:49:09', '2019-01-06 06:49:09', 'Maureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way.\r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics.', 'Too rich to jail', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'too-rich-to-jail', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:21:34', '2019-11-13 06:21:34', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1128', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1129, 1, '2019-06-24 06:49:09', '2019-06-24 06:49:09', 'Maureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way.\r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics.', 'Too rich to jail', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1128-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:49:09', '2019-06-24 06:49:09', '', 1128, 'http://marcellus.in/1128-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1130, 1, '2019-01-06 06:50:06', '2019-01-06 06:50:06', 'A fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it – <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>', 'Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'beyond-the-bottom-line-should-business-put-purpose-before-profit', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:19:14', '2019-11-13 06:19:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1130', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1131, 1, '2019-06-24 06:50:06', '2019-06-24 06:50:06', 'A fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it – <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>', 'Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1130-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:50:06', '2019-06-24 06:50:06', '', 1130, 'http://marcellus.in/1130-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1132, 1, '2019-01-06 06:52:22', '2019-01-06 06:52:22', 'A paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>', 'Intellectual humility – the importance of knowing you might be wrong', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'intellectual-humility-the-importance-of-knowing-you-might-be-wrong', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:16:18', '2019-11-13 06:16:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1132', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1133, 1, '2019-06-24 06:52:22', '2019-06-24 06:52:22', 'A paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>', 'Intellectual humility – the importance of knowing you might be wrong', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1132-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:52:22', '2019-06-24 06:52:22', '', 1132, 'http://marcellus.in/1132-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1134, 1, '2019-01-06 06:53:31', '2019-01-06 06:53:31', 'The fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. “It keeps me up at night,” he says. “I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn’t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. […] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others — and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish’s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>', 'Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'climate-change-drives-fish-into-new-waters-remaking-an-industry', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:14:22', '2019-11-13 06:14:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1134', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1135, 1, '2019-06-24 06:53:31', '2019-06-24 06:53:31', 'The fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. “It keeps me up at night,” he says. “I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn’t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. […] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others — and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish’s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>', 'Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1134-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:53:31', '2019-06-24 06:53:31', '', 1134, 'http://marcellus.in/1134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1136, 1, '2019-01-06 06:54:41', '2019-01-06 06:54:41', '<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>', 'ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING – Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'artificial-intelligence-machine-learning-powerful-predictors-diagnosing-cancer-in-india-using-ai', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1136', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1137, 1, '2019-06-24 06:54:41', '2019-06-24 06:54:41', '<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>', 'ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING – Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1136-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:54:41', '2019-06-24 06:54:41', '', 1136, 'http://marcellus.in/1136-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1138, 1, '2019-01-06 06:55:45', '2019-01-06 06:55:45', '20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure.\r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What’s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government’s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&amp;M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Retreat from private infrastructure projects', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'retreat-from-private-infrastructure-projects', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1138', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1139, 1, '2019-06-24 06:55:45', '2019-06-24 06:55:45', '20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure.\r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What’s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government’s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&amp;M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Retreat from private infrastructure projects', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1138-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 06:55:45', '2019-06-24 06:55:45', '', 1138, 'http://marcellus.in/1138-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1140, 1, '2019-02-17 07:00:01', '2019-02-17 07:00:01', '<em>25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</em>', 'Tribal World – Group Identity is All', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tribal-world-group-identity-is-all', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1140', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1141, 1, '2019-06-24 07:00:01', '2019-06-24 07:00:01', '<em>25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</em>', 'Tribal World – Group Identity is All', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1140-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:00:01', '2019-06-24 07:00:01', '', 1140, 'http://marcellus.in/1140-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1142, 1, '2019-02-17 07:01:36', '2019-02-17 07:01:36', '<em>A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. “What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”\r\n“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….\r\n…one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…\r\n….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”\r\n“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”\r\nSometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..\r\n….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”\r\n….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em>', 'The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-extraordinary-science-of-addictive-junk-food', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1142', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1143, 1, '2019-06-24 07:01:36', '2019-06-24 07:01:36', '<em>A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. “What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”\r\n“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….\r\n…one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…\r\n….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”\r\n“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”\r\nSometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..\r\n….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”\r\n….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em>', 'The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1142-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:01:36', '2019-06-24 07:01:36', '', 1142, 'http://marcellus.in/1142-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1144, 1, '2019-02-17 07:02:23', '2019-02-17 07:02:23', '<em>The Indian Government’s proposed amendment to the IT act to regulate content on social media and messaging platforms has triggered a roaring debate among tech companies to freedom-of-speech activists to political parties. Whilst the headline of this NYT piece might have gone too far in comparing it with China (several countries including those from the west have implemented rules to various degrees in this direction), it does raise questions given the timing of the law – weeks before what will undoubtedly be a crucial general election from the perspective of the country’s long term political future.\r\n“…Under the proposed rules, Indian officials could demand that Facebook, Google, Twitter, TikTok and others remove posts or videos that they deem libelous, invasive of privacy, hateful or deceptive. Internet companies would also have to build automated screening tools to block Indians from seeing “unlawful information or content.” Another provision would weaken the privacy protections of messaging services like WhatsApp so that the authorities could trace messages back to their original senders….\r\n… “The proposed changes have an authoritarian bent,” said Apar Gupta, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital rights group, which plans to challenge the rules in court if they are enacted. “This is very similar to what China does to its citizens, where it polices their every move and tracks their every post on social media.” India’s proposals add to the growing resistance worldwide against internet behemoths like Google and Facebook, which once flourished largely unimpeded. In Europe, officials last year enacted tough new rules to protect people’s online data, forcing the companies to change some practices. China has long used a system of internet filters, known as the Great Firewall, to block content and shut out global tech companies. And in a 2017 review, The New York Times tallied more than 50 countries that had passed laws in recent years to gain greater control over how their people use the web…..\r\n…In a filing with the ministry last week, Microsoft said that complying with India’s new standards would be “impossible from the process, legal and technology point of view.” The company — whose Hyderabad-born chief executive, Satya Nadella, is a business icon in India — said the proposal lumped together all intermediaries, as varied as social networks and Wi-Fi hot spots, even though each has a different level of control over content that flows through it. In the filing, Microsoft said it would be difficult to screen out gambling content, as the rules would require. Filtering the full range of content demanded by the government would not only violate privacy and freedom of expression, the company wrote, but would also be so challenging that “the cost of even attempting compliance will be prohibitive.”\r\n“WhatsApp cares deeply about creating a space for private conversations online,” Carl Woog, a company spokesman, said at a news conference in New Delhi. He said the proposed rules “would require us to re-architect WhatsApp, leading to a different product, one that would not be fundamentally private.”\r\n….Indian authorities are struggling to deal with inflammatory messages that spread on social platforms. They shut down the entire internet in 2017 in the state of Punjab just before a popular spiritual guru was convicted on rape charges. That did not stop his followers from flooding the streets, and at least 30 people died in the violence.\r\n… One of the biggest cheerleaders for the new rules was Reliance Jio, a fast-growing mobile phone company controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest industrialist. Mr. Ambani, an ally of Mr. Modi, has made no secret of his plans to turn Reliance Jio into an all-purpose information service that offers streaming video and music, messaging, money transfer, online shopping, and home broadband services.\r\nIn a filing last week, Reliance Jio said the new rules were necessary to combat “miscreants” and urged the government to ignore free-speech protests. The company also said that encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp, “although perceivably beneficial to users, are detrimental to national interest and hence should not be allowed.”</em>', 'India Proposes Chinese-Style Internet Censorship', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'india-proposes-chinese-style-internet-censorship', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:35:50', '2019-06-26 11:35:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1144', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1145, 1, '2019-06-24 07:02:23', '2019-06-24 07:02:23', '<em>The Indian Government’s proposed amendment to the IT act to regulate content on social media and messaging platforms has triggered a roaring debate among tech companies to freedom-of-speech activists to political parties. Whilst the headline of this NYT piece might have gone too far in comparing it with China (several countries including those from the west have implemented rules to various degrees in this direction), it does raise questions given the timing of the law – weeks before what will undoubtedly be a crucial general election from the perspective of the country’s long term political future.\r\n“…Under the proposed rules, Indian officials could demand that Facebook, Google, Twitter, TikTok and others remove posts or videos that they deem libelous, invasive of privacy, hateful or deceptive. Internet companies would also have to build automated screening tools to block Indians from seeing “unlawful information or content.” Another provision would weaken the privacy protections of messaging services like WhatsApp so that the authorities could trace messages back to their original senders….\r\n… “The proposed changes have an authoritarian bent,” said Apar Gupta, executive director of the Internet Freedom Foundation, a digital rights group, which plans to challenge the rules in court if they are enacted. “This is very similar to what China does to its citizens, where it polices their every move and tracks their every post on social media.” India’s proposals add to the growing resistance worldwide against internet behemoths like Google and Facebook, which once flourished largely unimpeded. In Europe, officials last year enacted tough new rules to protect people’s online data, forcing the companies to change some practices. China has long used a system of internet filters, known as the Great Firewall, to block content and shut out global tech companies. And in a 2017 review, The New York Times tallied more than 50 countries that had passed laws in recent years to gain greater control over how their people use the web…..\r\n…In a filing with the ministry last week, Microsoft said that complying with India’s new standards would be “impossible from the process, legal and technology point of view.” The company — whose Hyderabad-born chief executive, Satya Nadella, is a business icon in India — said the proposal lumped together all intermediaries, as varied as social networks and Wi-Fi hot spots, even though each has a different level of control over content that flows through it. In the filing, Microsoft said it would be difficult to screen out gambling content, as the rules would require. Filtering the full range of content demanded by the government would not only violate privacy and freedom of expression, the company wrote, but would also be so challenging that “the cost of even attempting compliance will be prohibitive.”\r\n“WhatsApp cares deeply about creating a space for private conversations online,” Carl Woog, a company spokesman, said at a news conference in New Delhi. He said the proposed rules “would require us to re-architect WhatsApp, leading to a different product, one that would not be fundamentally private.”\r\n….Indian authorities are struggling to deal with inflammatory messages that spread on social platforms. They shut down the entire internet in 2017 in the state of Punjab just before a popular spiritual guru was convicted on rape charges. That did not stop his followers from flooding the streets, and at least 30 people died in the violence.\r\n… One of the biggest cheerleaders for the new rules was Reliance Jio, a fast-growing mobile phone company controlled by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest industrialist. Mr. Ambani, an ally of Mr. Modi, has made no secret of his plans to turn Reliance Jio into an all-purpose information service that offers streaming video and music, messaging, money transfer, online shopping, and home broadband services.\r\nIn a filing last week, Reliance Jio said the new rules were necessary to combat “miscreants” and urged the government to ignore free-speech protests. The company also said that encrypted messaging services like WhatsApp, “although perceivably beneficial to users, are detrimental to national interest and hence should not be allowed.”</em>', 'India Proposes Chinese-Style Internet Censorship', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1144-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:02:23', '2019-06-24 07:02:23', '', 1144, 'http://marcellus.in/1144-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1146, 1, '2019-02-17 07:03:32', '2019-02-17 07:03:32', '<em>Office goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</em>', 'The two tribes of working life', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-two-tribes-of-working-life', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1146', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1147, 1, '2019-06-24 07:03:32', '2019-06-24 07:03:32', '<em>Office goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</em>', 'The two tribes of working life', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1146-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:03:32', '2019-06-24 07:03:32', '', 1146, 'http://marcellus.in/1146-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1148, 1, '2019-06-24 07:03:49', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'The Biggest Returns', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:03:49', '2019-06-24 07:03:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1148', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1149, 1, '2019-02-17 07:05:07', '2019-02-17 07:05:07', '<em>In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia…\r\nTil Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.\r\nHer dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em>', 'Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'evidence-deficit-haunts-billion-dollar-brain-trainers', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1149', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1150, 1, '2019-06-24 07:05:07', '2019-06-24 07:05:07', '<em>In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia…\r\nTil Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.\r\nHer dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em>', 'Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1149-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:05:07', '2019-06-24 07:05:07', '', 1149, 'http://marcellus.in/1149-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1151, 1, '2019-02-17 07:06:49', '2019-02-17 07:06:49', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<em>Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n“The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…\r\n…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….\r\n…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.\r\nInvestment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.\r\nIf we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…\r\n….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.\r\nVanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book Enough with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\nAt a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”\r\nEnough. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>', 'The Biggest Returns', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-biggest-returns', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1151', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1152, 1, '2019-06-24 07:06:49', '2019-06-24 07:06:49', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<em>Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n“The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…\r\n…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….\r\n…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.\r\nInvestment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.\r\nIf we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…\r\n….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.\r\nVanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book Enough with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\nAt a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”\r\nEnough. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>', 'The Biggest Returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1151-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:06:49', '2019-06-24 07:06:49', '', 1151, 'http://marcellus.in/1151-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1153, 1, '2019-02-10 07:11:17', '2019-02-10 07:11:17', 'In an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.', 'The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-disturbing-surprisingly-complex-relationship-between-white-identity-politics-and-racism', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:39:00', '2019-11-13 05:39:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1153', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1154, 1, '2019-06-24 07:11:17', '2019-06-24 07:11:17', 'In an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.', 'The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1153-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:11:17', '2019-06-24 07:11:17', '', 1153, 'http://marcellus.in/1153-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1155, 1, '2019-02-10 07:12:38', '2019-02-10 07:12:38', 'This remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>', 'Why women win in the long run', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-women-win-in-the-long-run', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:37:42', '2019-11-13 05:37:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1155', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1156, 1, '2019-06-24 07:12:38', '2019-06-24 07:12:38', 'This remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>', 'Why women win in the long run', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1155-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:12:38', '2019-06-24 07:12:38', '', 1155, 'http://marcellus.in/1155-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1157, 1, '2019-02-10 07:13:45', '2019-02-10 07:13:45', 'Gideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>', 'The Trump era could last 30 years', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-trump-era-could-last-30-years', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:36:23', '2019-11-13 05:36:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1157', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1158, 1, '2019-06-24 07:13:45', '2019-06-24 07:13:45', 'Gideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>', 'The Trump era could last 30 years', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1157-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:13:45', '2019-06-24 07:13:45', '', 1157, 'http://marcellus.in/1157-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1159, 1, '2019-02-10 07:14:48', '2019-02-10 07:14:48', 'Eileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness…Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>', 'Bridgewater’s Self-Obsession Actually … Works?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bridgewaters-self-obsession-actually-works', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:33:13', '2019-11-13 05:33:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1159', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1160, 1, '2019-06-24 07:14:48', '2019-06-24 07:14:48', 'Eileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness…Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>', 'Bridgewater’s Self-Obsession Actually … Works?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1159-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:14:48', '2019-06-24 07:14:48', '', 1159, 'http://marcellus.in/1159-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1161, 1, '2019-02-17 07:15:36', '2019-02-17 07:15:36', 'Vrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India – ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>', 'How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-a-naga-tribe-is-challenging-cliched-notions-of-advancement-backwardness', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:14:42', '2019-11-11 12:14:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1161', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1162, 1, '2019-06-24 07:15:36', '2019-06-24 07:15:36', 'Vrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India – ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>', 'How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1161-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:15:36', '2019-06-24 07:15:36', '', 1161, 'http://marcellus.in/1161-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1163, 1, '2019-02-10 07:16:28', '2019-02-10 07:16:28', 'In his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ikea-furniture-does-not-need-to-fall-apart', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:31:35', '2019-11-13 05:31:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1163', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1164, 1, '2019-06-24 07:16:28', '2019-06-24 07:16:28', 'In his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1163-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:16:28', '2019-06-24 07:16:28', '', 1163, 'http://marcellus.in/1163-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1165, 1, '2019-02-03 07:18:37', '2019-02-03 07:18:37', 'A pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.', 'Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'kotak-lawsuit-will-it-finally-make-rbi-accountable', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:46:17', '2019-11-13 05:46:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1165', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1166, 1, '2019-06-24 07:18:37', '2019-06-24 07:18:37', 'A pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.', 'Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1165-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:18:37', '2019-06-24 07:18:37', '', 1165, 'http://marcellus.in/1165-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1167, 1, '2019-02-03 07:30:40', '2019-02-03 07:30:40', 'Part of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em>', 'Dharavi Diary – What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dharavi-diary-what-happens-when-girls-in-one-of-the-worlds-largest-slums-start-coding-and-building-apps', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:40:28', '2019-06-26 11:40:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1167', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1168, 1, '2019-06-24 07:30:40', '2019-06-24 07:30:40', 'Part of India’s renaissance is ordinary people making extraordinary efforts to life of the people around them. This, in a sense, is the continuation of the million mutinies that VS Naipaul wrote about in his 1990 book. Here is one more example if India’s million mutinies.\r\n<em>“Dharavi Diary, a non-profit organisation run by documentary filmmaker Nawneet Ranjan…For the children there, Dharavi Diary is more than just an after-school academic programme. Ranjan teaches them—mainly girls—English, math, computer applications like MS Powerpoint and Excel, and basic coding. In fact, using the open-source developing tool MIT App Inventor, some girls have even built mobile apps to tackle problems like sexual harassment, water scarcity, and lack of education….The premise of the venture is his belief that storytelling and technology should play a bigger part in learning—a world away from India’s system of rote learning. ”When you understand the process of creation, you care more, which is completely missing in our education system. Through this (project), I get to inculcate an attitude of questioning the status quo,” Ranjan, who is from Muzaffarpur, a small town in Bihar, said. </em>\r\n<em>So at Dharavi Diary’s Naya Nagar centre, open from 9am to 11pm through the week, science is taught through experiments. To hone language skills, movies are screened every Saturday….</em>\r\n<em>Getting the project up and running burnt a hole in Ranjan’s pocket. He put all of his $30,000 personal savings into finding a venue, getting laptops, internet, and learning kits, organising field trips beyond the neighbourhood, sports events, film screenings, and even urban gardening.</em>\r\n<em>When the funds dried up, Ranjan’s family and friends helped in cash and kind. In 2016, GO Campaign extended a grant of $10,000 for Dharavi Diary’s Girl Coding Project. As the project gained traction, corporates chipped in. In 2016, California-based Nvidia provided some funds. Later, Dharavi Diary went on to win the Google Rise Award which is helping it expand beyond the shanty town to other underprivileged localities of Mumbai, as well as those in Hyderabad and Pune. The organisation has already met nearly three-quarters of its current Rs1.5-crore (over $233,000) fundraising goal from corporates and individual backers. Ranjan has also applied for a grant to get a 3-D printer….</em>\r\n<em>Instead of pushing technology products, Dharavi Diary gives girls from underprivileged communities the tools to create their own relevant apps. “In fact, a small group is now known as the Tech Girls of Dharavi,” Ranjan said…</em>\r\n<em>Seventeen-year-old Ansuja Madival, for instance, was one of Dharavi Diary’s first members. Before that, she had minimal exposure to computers in school. Today she has achieved something unimaginable to her earlier—launching her own app on Google Play store.</em>\r\n<em>Using MIT App Inventor, an open-source coding platform, Madival created Women Fight Back, which allows one to set off distress alarms and send SMS alerts. It has been downloaded 500 times, Madival said.”</em>', 'Dharavi Diary – What happens when girls in one of the world’s largest slums start coding and building apps', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1167-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 07:30:40', '2019-06-24 07:30:40', '', 1167, 'http://marcellus.in/1167-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1169, 1, '2019-02-03 08:39:28', '2019-02-03 08:39:28', 'Morgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        – What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”', 'How This All Happened', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-this-all-happened', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:44:48', '2019-11-13 05:44:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1169', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1170, 1, '2019-06-24 08:39:28', '2019-06-24 08:39:28', 'Morgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        – What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”', 'How This All Happened', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1169-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:39:28', '2019-06-24 08:39:28', '', 1169, 'http://marcellus.in/1169-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1171, 1, '2019-02-03 08:40:25', '2019-02-03 08:40:25', 'Priya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,” author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up” (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,” he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,” he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,” he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.”</em>', 'Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'afroz-shahs-new-year-lesson', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:43:51', '2019-11-13 05:43:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1171', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1172, 1, '2019-06-24 08:40:25', '2019-06-24 08:40:25', 'Priya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,” author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up” (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,” he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,” he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,” he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.”</em>', 'Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1171-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:40:25', '2019-06-24 08:40:25', '', 1171, 'http://marcellus.in/1171-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1173, 1, '2019-02-03 08:41:39', '2019-02-03 08:41:39', 'Part of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>', 'Cracks are opening in the global monetary system', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'cracks-are-opening-in-the-global-monetary-system', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:42:24', '2019-11-13 05:42:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1173', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1174, 1, '2019-06-24 08:41:39', '2019-06-24 08:41:39', 'Part of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>', 'Cracks are opening in the global monetary system', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1173-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:41:39', '2019-06-24 08:41:39', '', 1173, 'http://marcellus.in/1173-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1175, 1, '2019-02-03 08:42:37', '2019-02-03 08:42:37', 'In his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>“this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Another tech bubble could be about to burst', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'another-tech-bubble-could-be-about-to-burst', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:40:12', '2019-11-13 05:40:12', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1175', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1176, 1, '2019-06-24 08:42:37', '2019-06-24 08:42:37', '', 'Another tech bubble could be about to burst', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1175-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:42:37', '2019-06-24 08:42:37', '', 1175, 'http://marcellus.in/1175-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1177, 1, '2019-06-24 08:42:54', '2019-06-24 08:42:54', 'In his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>“this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Another tech bubble could be about to burst', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1175-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:42:54', '2019-06-24 08:42:54', '', 1175, 'http://marcellus.in/1175-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1178, 1, '2019-03-31 08:45:56', '2019-03-31 08:45:56', '<em>Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems – congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Future shock: inside Google’s smart city', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'future-shock-inside-googles-smart-city', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1178', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1179, 1, '2019-06-24 08:45:56', '2019-06-24 08:45:56', '<em>Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems – congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Future shock: inside Google’s smart city', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1178-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 08:45:56', '2019-06-24 08:45:56', '', 1178, 'http://marcellus.in/1178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1181, 1, '2019-03-31 09:12:02', '2019-03-31 09:12:02', '<em>This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world’s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….“No one has a perfect bird’s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith’s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today’s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith’s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Underground Railroad of North Korea', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-underground-railroad-of-north-korea', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1181', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1182, 1, '2019-06-24 09:12:02', '2019-06-24 09:12:02', '<em>This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world’s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….“No one has a perfect bird’s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith’s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today’s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith’s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Underground Railroad of North Korea', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1181-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:12:02', '2019-06-24 09:12:02', '', 1181, 'http://marcellus.in/1181-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1183, 1, '2019-03-31 09:14:31', '2019-03-31 09:14:31', '<em>Oxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its highest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. “Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall,</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? “Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Frontier market debt at a 15-year high', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'frontier-market-debt-at-a-15-year-high', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1183', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1184, 1, '2019-06-24 09:14:31', '2019-06-24 09:14:31', '<em>Oxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its highest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. “Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall,</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? “Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Frontier market debt at a 15-year high', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1183-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:14:31', '2019-06-24 09:14:31', '', 1183, 'http://marcellus.in/1183-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1185, 1, '2019-03-31 09:15:40', '2019-03-31 09:15:40', '<em>In what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. “Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.\r\nFor the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018… In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance…. “In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>', 'Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'money-losing-companies-that-went-public-in-2018-did-better-than-profitable-ones', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1185', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1186, 1, '2019-06-24 09:15:40', '2019-06-24 09:15:40', '<em>In what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. “Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.\r\nFor the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018… In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance…. “In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>', 'Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1185-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:15:40', '2019-06-24 09:15:40', '', 1185, 'http://marcellus.in/1185-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1187, 1, '2019-03-31 09:20:10', '2019-03-31 09:20:10', 'India draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World’s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate… The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: “The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India’s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? “The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Can India provide water for all by 2030?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'can-india-provide-water-for-all-by-2030', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:17:20', '2019-11-11 11:17:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1187', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1188, 1, '2019-06-24 09:20:10', '2019-06-24 09:20:10', 'India draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World’s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate… The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: “The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India’s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? “The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Can India provide water for all by 2030?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1187-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:20:10', '2019-06-24 09:20:10', '', 1187, 'http://marcellus.in/1187-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1451, 1, '2019-07-03 09:12:59', '2019-07-03 09:12:59', '', 'favicon', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'favicon', '', '', '2019-07-03 09:12:59', '2019-07-03 09:12:59', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/favicon.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1190, 1, '2019-03-31 09:34:54', '2019-03-31 09:34:54', '<em>Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram – access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-instagram-replaced-the-contacts-list', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1190', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1191, 1, '2019-06-24 09:34:54', '2019-06-24 09:34:54', '<em>Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram – access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1190-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:34:54', '2019-06-24 09:34:54', '', 1190, 'http://marcellus.in/1190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1192, 1, '2019-03-24 09:40:49', '2019-03-24 09:40:49', '<em>This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: “The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: “As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: “An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Meet the safecracker of last resort', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'meet-the-safecracker-of-last-resort', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1192', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1193, 1, '2019-06-24 09:40:49', '2019-06-24 09:40:49', '<em>This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: “The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: “As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: “An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Meet the safecracker of last resort', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1192-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:40:49', '2019-06-24 09:40:49', '', 1192, 'http://marcellus.in/1192-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1194, 1, '2019-03-24 09:43:19', '2019-03-24 09:43:19', '<em>Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. “…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '‘We spoke English to set ourselves apart’: how I rediscovered my mother tongue', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'we-spoke-english-to-set-ourselves-apart-how-i-rediscovered-my-mother-tongue', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1194', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1195, 1, '2019-06-24 09:43:19', '2019-06-24 09:43:19', '<em>Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. “…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '‘We spoke English to set ourselves apart’: how I rediscovered my mother tongue', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1194-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:43:19', '2019-06-24 09:43:19', '', 1194, 'http://marcellus.in/1194-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1196, 1, '2019-03-24 09:44:26', '2019-03-24 09:44:26', '<em>Most of us would have observed and pondered over the effects of social media on various aspects of the society and economy alike. David Perell puts those observations in a framework that allows the reader to distinctly see these changes, especially focusing on the fields of commerce, education and politics and how the effects are in someways similar in all three fields. Central to the transformation is the shift from information scarcity to information abundance in the hands of the consumer, the student and the voter. Such a shift is obviously disrupting incumbents breaking down entry barriers (brand and distribution are no longer the competitive advantages that they used to be) whilst allowing new comers to take a shot at an industry’s profit pie which hitherto would have been out of reach given the stranglehold of mass media as the main tool of influence and the consequent prohibitive costs. “…legacy advertisers, distribution channels, and the mass media once formed an impenetrable holy trinity but now that trinity rests on wobbly ground, and its parts will decompose into fossils of the Mass Media era….among the top 100 consumer-packaged good (CPG) brands, 90 percent experienced a decline in market share in 2015 and in the past three years, over $17 billion in sales has evaporated from the 10 largest U.S. packaged-food companies.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In education, large universities are being disintermediated to the benefit of both students and teachers to deliver the value proposition in the industry. David reckons ”Harvard and Stanford will be okay, but dark days are ahead for mid-tier universities” But given the unravelling of admission processes, it is not clear why the Ivy league should be any more moated.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Burdened by rising costs and unable to justify tuition prices, mid-tier universities are on the brink of bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen, who coined the term “disruption,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a1e8751e73&amp;e=5648501957\">predicts</a> 50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States will be bankrupt in the next 10 to 15 years. The challenges are most acute for mid-size liberal arts schools such as Concord University in West Virginia. Its freshman enrollment fell 19% in five years. It burned through $12 million in reserves, and now it <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07da3a9f69&amp;e=5648501957\">can’t afford</a> to tear down to empty dormitories. “</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The best section of the article is the one on politics which David uses to conclude why despite the threat of fake news and the ability of politicians or anyone else wanting to use social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to influence public opinion, it is still better than the status quo – in the past, given the information asymmetry we took for granted any information thrown at us by an individual or entity with a perceived sense of authority – such as Walter Cronkite’s (the influential CBS anchor) role in tilting Amercians’ opinion about the Vietnam War or the role of Britannica encyclopedia as the ultimate authority on a subject of our curiosity vs our ability to question Wikipedia’s authenticity. Now with not just a shift towards information abundance but also two-way information flow, the ability to influence public opinion is with the anti-status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In political science, the “Overton Window” represents the range of acceptable opinions in society. Rather than controlling speech itself, people can control speech by determining the limits of acceptable conversation. As Noam Chomsky, the father of modern linguistics said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before cable, the limits of acceptable speech were enforced by political parties, who, due to their incentives for mass appeal, encouraged political centrism. With the stroke of a pen, small groups set narratives for the masses. Every town has one or two newspapers and three TV stations — all centrist, pro-business, and respectful of authority. Newspapers and television stations monopolized the distribution of information within their local territory. Through their power, they built social cohesion by eliminating diverse opinion and creating a shared intellectual ground for citizens…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What the hell is going on?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-the-hell-is-going-on', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:47:50', '2019-06-26 11:47:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1196', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1197, 1, '2019-06-24 09:44:26', '2019-06-24 09:44:26', '<em>Most of us would have observed and pondered over the effects of social media on various aspects of the society and economy alike. David Perell puts those observations in a framework that allows the reader to distinctly see these changes, especially focusing on the fields of commerce, education and politics and how the effects are in someways similar in all three fields. Central to the transformation is the shift from information scarcity to information abundance in the hands of the consumer, the student and the voter. Such a shift is obviously disrupting incumbents breaking down entry barriers (brand and distribution are no longer the competitive advantages that they used to be) whilst allowing new comers to take a shot at an industry’s profit pie which hitherto would have been out of reach given the stranglehold of mass media as the main tool of influence and the consequent prohibitive costs. “…legacy advertisers, distribution channels, and the mass media once formed an impenetrable holy trinity but now that trinity rests on wobbly ground, and its parts will decompose into fossils of the Mass Media era….among the top 100 consumer-packaged good (CPG) brands, 90 percent experienced a decline in market share in 2015 and in the past three years, over $17 billion in sales has evaporated from the 10 largest U.S. packaged-food companies.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In education, large universities are being disintermediated to the benefit of both students and teachers to deliver the value proposition in the industry. David reckons ”Harvard and Stanford will be okay, but dark days are ahead for mid-tier universities” But given the unravelling of admission processes, it is not clear why the Ivy league should be any more moated.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Burdened by rising costs and unable to justify tuition prices, mid-tier universities are on the brink of bankruptcy. Clayton Christensen, who coined the term “disruption,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a1e8751e73&amp;e=5648501957\">predicts</a> 50% of the 4,000 colleges and universities in the United States will be bankrupt in the next 10 to 15 years. The challenges are most acute for mid-size liberal arts schools such as Concord University in West Virginia. Its freshman enrollment fell 19% in five years. It burned through $12 million in reserves, and now it <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07da3a9f69&amp;e=5648501957\">can’t afford</a> to tear down to empty dormitories. “</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The best section of the article is the one on politics which David uses to conclude why despite the threat of fake news and the ability of politicians or anyone else wanting to use social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter to influence public opinion, it is still better than the status quo – in the past, given the information asymmetry we took for granted any information thrown at us by an individual or entity with a perceived sense of authority – such as Walter Cronkite’s (the influential CBS anchor) role in tilting Amercians’ opinion about the Vietnam War or the role of Britannica encyclopedia as the ultimate authority on a subject of our curiosity vs our ability to question Wikipedia’s authenticity. Now with not just a shift towards information abundance but also two-way information flow, the ability to influence public opinion is with the anti-status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In political science, the “Overton Window” represents the range of acceptable opinions in society. Rather than controlling speech itself, people can control speech by determining the limits of acceptable conversation. As Noam Chomsky, the father of modern linguistics said: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before cable, the limits of acceptable speech were enforced by political parties, who, due to their incentives for mass appeal, encouraged political centrism. With the stroke of a pen, small groups set narratives for the masses. Every town has one or two newspapers and three TV stations — all centrist, pro-business, and respectful of authority. Newspapers and television stations monopolized the distribution of information within their local territory. Through their power, they built social cohesion by eliminating diverse opinion and creating a shared intellectual ground for citizens…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What the hell is going on?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1196-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:44:26', '2019-06-24 09:44:26', '', 1196, 'http://marcellus.in/1196-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1198, 1, '2019-03-24 09:46:40', '2019-03-24 09:46:40', '<em>The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: “First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…\r\nJoyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”\r\nNo word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'qantas-airways-ceo-delivered-a-masterclass-in-leadership', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1198', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1199, 1, '2019-06-24 09:46:40', '2019-06-24 09:46:40', '<em>The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: “First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…\r\nJoyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”\r\nNo word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1198-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:46:40', '2019-06-24 09:46:40', '', 1198, 'http://marcellus.in/1198-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1200, 1, '2019-06-24 09:46:45', '2019-06-24 09:46:45', '<em>The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.</em>\n\n<em>Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: “First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\n\n<em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\n\n<em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.</em>\n\n<em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…\nJoyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”\nNo word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\n\n&nbsp;', 'Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1198-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:46:45', '2019-06-24 09:46:45', '', 1198, 'http://marcellus.in/1198-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1201, 1, '2019-03-24 09:48:00', '2019-03-24 09:48:00', '<em>When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort…people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-makes-a-fulfilling-career-ask-a-teenager', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1201', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1202, 1, '2019-06-24 09:48:00', '2019-06-24 09:48:00', '<em>When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort…people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1201-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:48:00', '2019-06-24 09:48:00', '', 1201, 'http://marcellus.in/1201-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1203, 1, '2019-03-24 09:49:10', '2019-03-24 09:49:10', '<em>When one of our readers sent this article to us, I immediately forwarded it to the missus to score a point in the endless debate over kids’ hygiene. But even the more relaxed amongst us are far more obsessed about cleanliness compared to our previous generations. Our fathers would have recommended applying a bit of soil from the football pitch on the wound from the fall and get on with the game but I am not sure if many from our generation would find it cool enough. Matt Richtel, in this well researched piece shows that with increase in cleanliness and hygiene conditions, humans’ immune system does not interact regularly with the natural world and hence becomes hyper sensitive and prone to allergies.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….”I tell people, when they drop food on the floor, please pick it up and eat it,” said Dr. Meg Lemon, a dermatologist in Denver who treats people with allergies and autoimmune disorders. “Get rid of the antibacterial soap. Immunize! If a new vaccine comes out, run and get it. I immunized the living hell out of my children. And it’s O.K. if they eat dirt.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Dr. Lemon’s prescription for a better immune system doesn’t end there. “You should not only pick your nose, you should eat it,” she said. She’s referring, with a facetious touch, to the fact our immune system can become disrupted if it doesn’t have regular interactions with the natural world. “Our immune system needs a job,” Dr. Lemon said. “We evolved over millions of years to have our immune systems under constant assault. Now they don’t have anything to do.” She isn’t alone. Leading physicians and immunologists are reconsidering the antiseptic, at times hysterical, ways in which we interact with our environment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“..The British Journal of Homeopathy, volume 29, published in 1872, included a startlingly prescient observation: “Hay fever is said to be an aristocratic disease, and there can be no doubt that, if it is not almost wholly confined to the upper classes of society, it is rarely, if ever, met with but among the educated.” Hay fever is a catchall term for seasonal allergies to pollen and other airborne irritants. With this idea that hay fever was an aristocratic disease, British scientists were on to something. More than a century later, in November 1989, another highly influential paper was published on the subject of hay fever. The paper was short, less than two pages, in BMJ, titled “Hay Fever, Hygiene, and Household Size.” The author looked at the prevalence of hay fever among 17,414 children born in March 1958. Of 16 variables the scientist explored, he described as “most striking” an association between the likelihood that a child would get hay fever allergy and the number of his or her siblings.It was an inverse relationship, meaning the more siblings the child had, the less likely it was that he or she would get the allergy. Not just that, but the children least likely to get allergies were ones who had older siblings. The paper hypothesized that “allergic diseases were prevented by infection in early childhood, transmitted by unhygienic contact with older siblings, or acquired prenatally from a mother infected by contact with her older children. “Over the past century declining family size, improvements in household amenities, and higher standards of personal cleanliness have reduced the opportunity for cross infection in young families,” the paper continued. “This may have resulted in more widespread clinical expression of atopic disease, emerging in wealthier people, as seems to have occurred for hay fever.”\r\n“We survived over tens of thousands of years. Eventually, we washed our hands, swept our floors, cooked our food, avoided certain foods altogether. We improved the hygiene of the animals we raised and slaughtered for food. Particularly in the wealthier areas of the world, we purified our water, and developed plumbing and waste treatment plants; we isolated and killed bacteria and other germs. The immune system’s enemies list was attenuated, largely for the good. Now, though, our bodies are proving that they cannot keep up with this change. We have created a mismatch between the immune system — one of the longest surviving and most refined balancing acts in the world — and our environment. Thanks to all the powerful learning we’ve done as a species, we have minimized the regular interaction not just with parasites but even with friendly bacteria and parasites that helped to teach and hone the immune system — that “trained” it. It doesn’t encounter as many bugs when we are babies. This is not just because our homes are cleaner, but also because our families are smaller (fewer older children are bringing home the germs), our foods and water cleaner, our milk sterilized. Some refer to the lack of interaction with all kinds of microbes we used to meet in nature as the “old friends mechanism.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What does the immune system do when it’s not properly trained? It can overreact. It becomes aggrieved by things like dust mites or pollen. It develops what we called allergies, chronic immune system attacks — inflammation — in a way that is counterproductive, irritating, even dangerous. The percentage of children in the United States with a food allergy rose 50 percent between 1997–1999 and 2009–2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The jump in skin allergies was 69 percent during that period, leaving 12.5 percent of American children with eczema and other irritations. Food and respiratory allergies rose in tandem with income level. More money, which typically correlates with higher education, has meant more risk of allergy. This may reflect differences in who reports such allergies, but it also springs from differences in environment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These trends are seen internationally, too. Skin allergies “doubled or tripled in industrialized countries during the past three decades, affecting 15–30 percent of children and 2–10 percent of adults,” according to a paper citing research from the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. By 2011, one in four children in Europe had an allergy, and the figure was on the rise, according to a report by the World Allergy Organization. Reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis, the paper noted that migration studies have shown that children born overseas have lower levels of some types of both allergy and autoimmunity than migrants whose children are born in the United States.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51c49e62a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Your Environment Is Cleaner. Your Immune System Has Never Been So Unprepared', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'your-environment-is-cleaner-your-immune-system-has-never-been-so-unprepared', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:48:59', '2019-06-26 11:48:59', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1203', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1204, 1, '2019-06-24 09:49:10', '2019-06-24 09:49:10', '<em>When one of our readers sent this article to us, I immediately forwarded it to the missus to score a point in the endless debate over kids’ hygiene. But even the more relaxed amongst us are far more obsessed about cleanliness compared to our previous generations. Our fathers would have recommended applying a bit of soil from the football pitch on the wound from the fall and get on with the game but I am not sure if many from our generation would find it cool enough. Matt Richtel, in this well researched piece shows that with increase in cleanliness and hygiene conditions, humans’ immune system does not interact regularly with the natural world and hence becomes hyper sensitive and prone to allergies.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….”I tell people, when they drop food on the floor, please pick it up and eat it,” said Dr. Meg Lemon, a dermatologist in Denver who treats people with allergies and autoimmune disorders. “Get rid of the antibacterial soap. Immunize! If a new vaccine comes out, run and get it. I immunized the living hell out of my children. And it’s O.K. if they eat dirt.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Dr. Lemon’s prescription for a better immune system doesn’t end there. “You should not only pick your nose, you should eat it,” she said. She’s referring, with a facetious touch, to the fact our immune system can become disrupted if it doesn’t have regular interactions with the natural world. “Our immune system needs a job,” Dr. Lemon said. “We evolved over millions of years to have our immune systems under constant assault. Now they don’t have anything to do.” She isn’t alone. Leading physicians and immunologists are reconsidering the antiseptic, at times hysterical, ways in which we interact with our environment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“..The British Journal of Homeopathy, volume 29, published in 1872, included a startlingly prescient observation: “Hay fever is said to be an aristocratic disease, and there can be no doubt that, if it is not almost wholly confined to the upper classes of society, it is rarely, if ever, met with but among the educated.” Hay fever is a catchall term for seasonal allergies to pollen and other airborne irritants. With this idea that hay fever was an aristocratic disease, British scientists were on to something. More than a century later, in November 1989, another highly influential paper was published on the subject of hay fever. The paper was short, less than two pages, in BMJ, titled “Hay Fever, Hygiene, and Household Size.” The author looked at the prevalence of hay fever among 17,414 children born in March 1958. Of 16 variables the scientist explored, he described as “most striking” an association between the likelihood that a child would get hay fever allergy and the number of his or her siblings.It was an inverse relationship, meaning the more siblings the child had, the less likely it was that he or she would get the allergy. Not just that, but the children least likely to get allergies were ones who had older siblings. The paper hypothesized that “allergic diseases were prevented by infection in early childhood, transmitted by unhygienic contact with older siblings, or acquired prenatally from a mother infected by contact with her older children. “Over the past century declining family size, improvements in household amenities, and higher standards of personal cleanliness have reduced the opportunity for cross infection in young families,” the paper continued. “This may have resulted in more widespread clinical expression of atopic disease, emerging in wealthier people, as seems to have occurred for hay fever.”\r\n“We survived over tens of thousands of years. Eventually, we washed our hands, swept our floors, cooked our food, avoided certain foods altogether. We improved the hygiene of the animals we raised and slaughtered for food. Particularly in the wealthier areas of the world, we purified our water, and developed plumbing and waste treatment plants; we isolated and killed bacteria and other germs. The immune system’s enemies list was attenuated, largely for the good. Now, though, our bodies are proving that they cannot keep up with this change. We have created a mismatch between the immune system — one of the longest surviving and most refined balancing acts in the world — and our environment. Thanks to all the powerful learning we’ve done as a species, we have minimized the regular interaction not just with parasites but even with friendly bacteria and parasites that helped to teach and hone the immune system — that “trained” it. It doesn’t encounter as many bugs when we are babies. This is not just because our homes are cleaner, but also because our families are smaller (fewer older children are bringing home the germs), our foods and water cleaner, our milk sterilized. Some refer to the lack of interaction with all kinds of microbes we used to meet in nature as the “old friends mechanism.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What does the immune system do when it’s not properly trained? It can overreact. It becomes aggrieved by things like dust mites or pollen. It develops what we called allergies, chronic immune system attacks — inflammation — in a way that is counterproductive, irritating, even dangerous. The percentage of children in the United States with a food allergy rose 50 percent between 1997–1999 and 2009–2011, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The jump in skin allergies was 69 percent during that period, leaving 12.5 percent of American children with eczema and other irritations. Food and respiratory allergies rose in tandem with income level. More money, which typically correlates with higher education, has meant more risk of allergy. This may reflect differences in who reports such allergies, but it also springs from differences in environment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These trends are seen internationally, too. Skin allergies “doubled or tripled in industrialized countries during the past three decades, affecting 15–30 percent of children and 2–10 percent of adults,” according to a paper citing research from the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. By 2011, one in four children in Europe had an allergy, and the figure was on the rise, according to a report by the World Allergy Organization. Reinforcing the hygiene hypothesis, the paper noted that migration studies have shown that children born overseas have lower levels of some types of both allergy and autoimmunity than migrants whose children are born in the United States.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51c49e62a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Your Environment Is Cleaner. Your Immune System Has Never Been So Unprepared', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1203-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:49:10', '2019-06-24 09:49:10', '', 1203, 'http://marcellus.in/1203-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1205, 1, '2019-03-17 09:53:05', '2019-03-17 09:53:05', '<em>Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia’s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn’t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>', 'How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-parents-of-child-influencers-package-their-kids-lives-for-instagram', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1205', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1206, 1, '2019-06-24 09:53:05', '2019-06-24 09:53:05', '<em>Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia’s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn’t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>', 'How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1205-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:53:05', '2019-06-24 09:53:05', '', 1205, 'http://marcellus.in/1205-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1207, 1, '2019-03-17 09:54:14', '2019-03-17 09:54:14', '<em>In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em>', 'Getting In – The social logic of Ivy League admissions', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'getting-in-the-social-logic-of-ivy-league-admissions', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1207', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1208, 1, '2019-06-24 09:54:14', '2019-06-24 09:54:14', '<em>In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em>', 'Getting In – The social logic of Ivy League admissions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1207-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:54:14', '2019-06-24 09:54:14', '', 1207, 'http://marcellus.in/1207-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1209, 1, '2019-06-24 09:55:18', '2019-06-24 09:55:18', '<em>In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</em>\n\n<em>“The admissions office demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel write</em><em>at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, </em><em>s, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em>\n\n<em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful…</em>\n\n<em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em>\n\n<em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em>\n\n<em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em>', 'Getting In – The social logic of Ivy League admissions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1207-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 09:55:18', '2019-06-24 09:55:18', '', 1207, 'http://marcellus.in/1207-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1210, 1, '2019-03-17 10:02:52', '2019-03-17 10:02:52', '<em>With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em>', 'People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'people-think-that-data-is-in-the-cloud-but-its-not-its-in-the-ocean', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1210', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1211, 1, '2019-06-24 10:02:52', '2019-06-24 10:02:52', '<em>With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em>', 'People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1210-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 10:02:52', '2019-06-24 10:02:52', '', 1210, 'http://marcellus.in/1210-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1212, 1, '2019-03-17 10:50:27', '2019-03-17 10:50:27', '<em>As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….\r\nFinancial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>', 'How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-merrill-lynch-is-planning-for-its-customers-to-live-to-100', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:53:06', '2019-06-26 11:53:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1212', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1213, 1, '2019-06-24 10:50:27', '2019-06-24 10:50:27', '<em>As lifespans increase, there is good chance that many of us will live into our 90s. This is going to create new avenues for wealth managers to make money. Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management is seeking to latch on to these opportunities.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In 2014, the company convened multiple business lines for a strategic meeting. They reviewed the new demographic changes and asked leaders from each group to consider how longevity would impact their business and to identify needs and opportunities it created.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Initially, the company asked: “What is on people’s minds when they think about retirement?” Research projects and in-depth studies on the question produced a comprehensive framework for financial advisors that helped people get to and navigate through retirement. It is called the 7 Life Priorities. The program enhances the retirement planning by focusing well beyond just financial health to encompass all 7 major areas in which life priorities change in retirement: Family, work, health, home, giving, leisure, and, of course, finances.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New initiatives, research, tools, checklists, training, and education were also created to enhance the use of the new framework and the institution’s longevity strategy. The goal was to be sure each client and their advisor could address the simple question: “Are You Fit to Live to 100?””\r\nThe article describes the six program that Merrill has unveiled to capitalise on this opportunity:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“A Specially Trained Longevity Advisor Force: Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch Wealth Management hired the industry’s first financial gerontologist in 2014 to help the more than 14,000 financial advisors better understand the needs of their clients…The financial gerontologist, provides training, education, resources and one-on-one attention to engage clients on the topics of aging, longevity, retirement, and life planning….A supplemental training module on Cognitive Decline and Alzheimer’s disease was added recently, and a training program across different life stages has also been developed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools and Resources for Clients to Prepare for Longevity:…A Preparing for Longevity Checklist was created that outlines points to consider at every stage of retirement, including: Planning for the Future (ages 50-59); Medicare and Required Distributions, Social Security and Withdrawal Strategy (ages 60- 70 ½). Additional checklists and assessment tools were created, e.g., How Sound is Your Estate Plan? And What’s Your Investment Personality?…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Forums for Discussions on Longevity and Related Issues: Communities across the country have held meetings for clients, business, civic and nonprofit representatives to start dialogues about longevity and its impact on local communities….\r\nFinancial Education for Clients: …The company partnered with Khan Academy to create financial literacy videos and online resources, called Better Money Habits, on a broad range of topics, and including content focused on caregiving.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>New Tools for the Unique Planning Needs of Women: In 2018, Merrill Lynch conducted research on women and financial wellness. It identified a $1 million wealth gap for women by the time they reach retirement, due to the wage gap and career interruptions, and on average longer lifespans than men. These findings led to a new initiatives, tools and checklists focused specifically on women’s life journeys, including parenting and elder caregiving. The research also found that women’s number one financial regret is not investing more of their money, so their financial advisors now plan with a goals-based approach that takes into account a woman’s longer lifespan and unique planning needs towards financial wellness.…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Longevity will become the core organizing principle for all financial services companies,” according to Russ Hill, Chairman and CEO of Halbert Hargrove Global Advisors, a financial services industry expert. “It will be necessary for considerations of time,” as lifespan and health span will be the new paradigm.”</em>', 'How Merrill Lynch is Planning for its Customers to Live to 100', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1212-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 10:50:27', '2019-06-24 10:50:27', '', 1212, 'http://marcellus.in/1212-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1214, 1, '2019-03-17 10:51:42', '2019-03-17 10:51:42', '<em>This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em>', 'Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'do-not-fear-flying-on-the-boeing-737-max', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1214', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1215, 1, '2019-06-24 10:51:42', '2019-06-24 10:51:42', '<em>This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em>', 'Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1214-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 10:51:42', '2019-06-24 10:51:42', '', 1214, 'http://marcellus.in/1214-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1216, 1, '2019-03-17 10:54:02', '2019-03-17 10:54:02', '<em>This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that “Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: “But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'China gains the upper hand over Germany', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'china-gains-the-upper-hand-over-germany', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1216', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1217, 1, '2019-06-24 10:54:02', '2019-06-24 10:54:02', '<em>This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that “Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: “But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'China gains the upper hand over Germany', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1216-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 10:54:02', '2019-06-24 10:54:02', '', 1216, 'http://marcellus.in/1216-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1218, 1, '2019-03-03 11:07:32', '2019-03-03 11:07:32', '<em>Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that “Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…\r\nScientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.\r\n“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.\r\nHe and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.\r\nAfter receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.\r\nAltering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.\r\nThe scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. “ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported.. If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>', 'Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'germs-in-your-gut-are-talking-to-your-brain-scientists-want-to-know-what-theyre-saying', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1218', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1219, 1, '2019-06-24 11:07:32', '2019-06-24 11:07:32', '<em>Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that “Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…\r\nScientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.\r\n“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.\r\nHe and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.\r\nAfter receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.\r\nAltering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.\r\nThe scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. “ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported.. If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>', 'Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1218-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:07:32', '2019-06-24 11:07:32', '', 1218, 'http://marcellus.in/1218-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1220, 1, '2019-03-03 11:09:37', '2019-03-03 11:09:37', '<em>Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”\r\nThis is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.\r\nWhat is unique?\r\nOne of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.\r\nA few things that help you get there.\r\n<strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..\r\n<strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong>\r\nSome problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.\r\n<strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.\r\n<strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”\r\nThe latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring – A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1220', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1221, 1, '2019-06-24 11:09:37', '2019-06-24 11:09:37', '<em>Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”\r\nThis is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.\r\nWhat is unique?\r\nOne of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.\r\nA few things that help you get there.\r\n<strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..\r\n<strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong>\r\nSome problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.\r\n<strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.\r\n<strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”\r\nThe latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring – A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1220-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:09:37', '2019-06-24 11:09:37', '', 1220, 'http://marcellus.in/1220-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1222, 1, '2019-03-03 11:11:23', '2019-03-03 11:11:23', '<em>A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? ”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.\r\nAnd finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.\r\nOne of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.\r\nTo some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>', 'Wealthy, Successful and Miserable', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'wealthy-successful-and-miserable', '', '', '2019-06-26 11:55:49', '2019-06-26 11:55:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1222', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1223, 1, '2019-06-24 11:11:23', '2019-06-24 11:11:23', '<em>A superb piece from Charles Duhigg about what leads to job satisfaction. Charles, a Pullitzer prize winner and the author of the brilliantly researched book – The Power of Habit, brings out the importance of meaning and purpose when it comes to our professional lives. “…a job is usually more than just a means to a paycheck. It’s a source of purpose and meaning, a place in the world”\r\n“..One classmate described having to invest $5 million a day — which didn’t sound terrible, until he explained that if he put only $4 million to work on Monday, he had to scramble to place $6 million on Tuesday, and his co-workers were constantly undermining one another in search of the next promotion. It was insanely stressful work, done among people he didn’t particularly like. He earned about $1.2 million a year and hated going to the office.“I feel like I’m wasting my life,” he told me. “When I die, is anyone going to care that I earned an extra percentage point of return? My work feels totally meaningless.” He recognized the incredible privilege of his pay and status, but his anguish seemed genuine. “If you spend 12 hours a day doing work you hate, at some point it doesn’t matter what your paycheck says,” he told me. There’s no magic salary at which a bad job becomes good. He had received an offer at a start-up, and he would have loved to take it, but it paid half as much, and he felt locked into a lifestyle that made this pay cut impossible.”\r\nSo why do people even in such highly respected professions feel a constant sense of discontent? ”…the answer comes down to oppressive hours, political infighting, increased competition sparked by globalization, an “always-on culture” bred by the internet — but also something that’s hard for these professionals to put their finger on, an underlying sense that their work isn’t worth the grueling effort they’re putting into it.”\r\nSo what does bring fulfilment?\r\n“…What’s interesting, however, is that once you can provide financially for yourself and your family, according to studies, additional salary and benefits don’t reliably contribute to worker satisfaction. Much more important are things like whether a job provides a sense of autonomy — the ability to control your time and the authority to act on your unique expertise. People want to work alongside others whom they respect (and, optimally, enjoy spending time with) and who seem to respect them in return.\r\nAnd finally, workers want to feel that their labors are meaningful. “You don’t have to be curing cancer,” says Barry Schwartz, a visiting professor of management at the University of California, Berkeley. We want to feel that we’re making the world better, even if it’s as small a matter as helping a shopper find the right product at the grocery store. “You can be a salesperson, or a toll collector, but if you see your goal as solving people’s problems, then each day presents 100 opportunities to improve someone’s life, and your satisfaction increases dramatically,” Schwartz says.\r\nOne of the more significant examples of how meaningfulness influences job satisfaction comes from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b12e4bdb9&amp;e=5648501957\">a study published in 2001.</a> Two researchers — Amy Wrzesniewski of Yale and Jane Dutton, now a distinguished emeritus professor at the University of Michigan — wanted to figure out why particular janitors at a large hospital were so much more enthusiastic than others. So they began conducting interviews and found that, by design and habit, some members of the janitorial staff saw their jobs not as just tidying up but as a form of healing. One woman, for instance, mopped rooms inside a brain-injury unit where many residents were comatose. The woman’s duties were basic: change bedpans, pick up trash. But she also sometimes took the initiative to swap around the pictures on the walls, because she believed a subtle stimulation change in the unconscious patients’ environment might speed their recovery. She talked to other convalescents about their lives. “I enjoy entertaining the patients,” she told the researchers. “That is not really part of my job description, but I like putting on a show for them.” She would dance around, tell jokes to families sitting vigil at bedsides, try to cheer up or distract everyone from the pain and uncertainty that otherwise surrounded them. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6392b0dec1&amp;e=5648501957\">In a 2003 study</a> led by the researchers, another custodian described cleaning the same room two times in order to ease the mind of a stressed-out father.\r\nTo some, the moral might seem obvious: If you see your job as healing the sick, rather than just swabbing up messes, you’re likely to have a deeper sense of purpose whenever you grab the mop. But what’s remarkable is how few workplaces seem to have internalized this simple lesson. “There are so many jobs where people feel like what they do is relatively meaningless,” Wrzesniewski says. “Even for well-paid positions, or jobs where you assume workers feel a sense of meaning, people feel like what they’re doing doesn’t matter.” That’s certainly true for my miserable classmate earning $1.2 million a year. Even though, in theory, the investments he makes each day help fund pensions — and thus the lives of retirees — it’s pretty hard to see that altruism from his window office in a Manhattan skyscraper. “It’s just numbers on a screen to me,” he told me. “I’ve never met a retiree who enjoyed a vacation because of what I do. It’s so theoretical it hardly seems real.”</em>', 'Wealthy, Successful and Miserable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1222-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:11:23', '2019-06-24 11:11:23', '', 1222, 'http://marcellus.in/1222-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1224, 1, '2019-03-03 11:28:00', '2019-03-03 11:28:00', '<em>A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”\r\n(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. “…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>', 'Why living experimentally beats taking bets', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-living-experimentally-beats-taking-bets', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1224', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1225, 1, '2019-06-24 11:28:00', '2019-06-24 11:28:00', '<em>A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”\r\n(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. “…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>', 'Why living experimentally beats taking bets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1224-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:28:00', '2019-06-24 11:28:00', '', 1224, 'http://marcellus.in/1224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1226, 1, '2019-03-03 11:34:13', '2019-03-03 11:34:13', '<em>With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n“The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.\r\nRajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.\r\nMuller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.\r\nMuller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear.\r\nUber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-data-helps-deliver-your-dinner-on-time-and-warm', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1226', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1227, 1, '2019-06-24 11:34:13', '2019-06-24 11:34:13', '<em>With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n“The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.\r\nRajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.\r\nMuller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.\r\nMuller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear.\r\nUber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1226-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:34:13', '2019-06-24 11:34:13', '', 1226, 'http://marcellus.in/1226-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1228, 1, '2019-04-28 11:36:13', '2019-04-28 11:36:13', 'Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”\r\n</em>So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em>From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.<em>\r\n</em>Here is Tagore writing in 1885,<em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.\r\nQuoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”\r\n</em>Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting<em>: “In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.\r\nThe Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati<em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.\r\nTagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality – in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.<em>\r\n</em>Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.\r\n</em>This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”\r\n</em>Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India –  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.<em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Traveling With Tagore', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'traveling-with-tagore', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:21:08', '2019-11-11 10:21:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1228', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1229, 1, '2019-06-24 11:36:13', '2019-06-24 11:36:13', 'Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”\r\n</em>So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em>From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.<em>\r\n</em>Here is Tagore writing in 1885,<em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.\r\nQuoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”\r\n</em>Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting<em>: “In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.\r\nThe Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati<em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.\r\nTagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality – in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.<em>\r\n</em>Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.\r\n</em>This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”\r\n</em>Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India –  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.<em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>', 'Traveling With Tagore', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1228-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:36:13', '2019-06-24 11:36:13', '', 1228, 'http://marcellus.in/1228-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1230, 1, '2019-04-28 11:37:29', '2019-04-28 11:37:29', 'Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:<em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”\r\nThe life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”\r\n</em>So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with<em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:\r\n‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’\r\nThis habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: “Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:\r\n‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’\r\nNot only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: “Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: “I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”\r\nFarnam Street notes that “Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”\r\n</em>And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:<em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.\r\n‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’\r\nSo we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-darwin-though-the-golden-rule-of-thinking', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:17:25', '2019-11-11 10:17:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1230', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1231, 1, '2019-06-24 11:37:29', '2019-06-24 11:37:29', 'Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:<em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”\r\nThe life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”\r\n</em>So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with<em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:\r\n‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’\r\nThis habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: “Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:\r\n‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’\r\nNot only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: “Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: “I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”\r\nFarnam Street notes that “Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”\r\n</em>And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:<em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.\r\n‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’\r\nSo we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>', 'How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1230-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:37:29', '2019-06-24 11:37:29', '', 1230, 'http://marcellus.in/1230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1232, 1, '2019-04-28 11:38:58', '2019-04-28 11:38:58', 'Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.<em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%….Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em> These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?<em>\r\n“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house.\r\nWhen they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…\r\n…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills.\r\nThe process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”\r\n</em>So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.<em>\r\n“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive.\r\n….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings”\r\n</em>Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.<em>\r\n“…Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.\r\n….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…\r\n…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000.\r\n<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Driving? The Kids Are So Over It', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'driving-the-kids-are-so-over-it', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:22:53', '2019-06-28 05:22:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1232', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1233, 1, '2019-06-24 11:38:58', '2019-06-24 11:38:58', 'Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.<em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%….Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em> These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?<em>\r\n“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house.\r\nWhen they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…\r\n…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills.\r\nThe process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”\r\n</em>So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.<em>\r\n“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive.\r\n….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings”\r\n</em>Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.<em>\r\n“…Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.\r\n….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…\r\n…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000.\r\n<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>', 'Driving? The Kids Are So Over It', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1232-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:38:58', '2019-06-24 11:38:58', '', 1232, 'http://marcellus.in/1232-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1234, 1, '2019-04-28 11:39:53', '2019-04-28 11:39:53', 'From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? “<em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”\r\n</em>Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.<em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”\r\n</em>Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.<em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”\r\n</em>Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-identify-talent-five-lessons-from-the-nfl-draft', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:13:23', '2019-11-11 10:13:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1234', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1235, 1, '2019-06-24 11:39:53', '2019-06-24 11:39:53', 'From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? “<em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”\r\n</em>Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.<em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”\r\n</em>Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.<em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”\r\n</em>Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>', 'How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1234-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:39:53', '2019-06-24 11:39:53', '', 1234, 'http://marcellus.in/1234-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1236, 1, '2019-04-28 11:40:44', '2019-04-28 11:40:44', 'Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.<em>\r\n“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.\r\n…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…\r\n…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…\r\nRestraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.\r\nThere were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.\r\nSay that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-reduce-digital-distractions-advice-from-medieval-monks', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:11:13', '2019-11-11 10:11:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1236', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1237, 1, '2019-06-24 11:40:44', '2019-06-24 11:40:44', 'Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.<em>\r\n“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.\r\n…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…\r\n…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…\r\nRestraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.\r\nThere were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.\r\nSay that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>', 'How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1236-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:40:44', '2019-06-24 11:40:44', '', 1236, 'http://marcellus.in/1236-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1238, 1, '2019-06-24 11:41:20', '2019-06-24 11:41:20', 'Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.<em>\r\n“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.\r\n…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…\r\n…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…\r\nRestraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.\r\nThere were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.\r\nSay that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>', 'How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1236-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:41:20', '2019-06-24 11:41:20', '', 1236, 'http://marcellus.in/1236-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1239, 1, '2019-04-28 11:51:46', '2019-04-28 11:51:46', 'Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:<em>\r\n“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.\r\nThe scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.\r\nAfter successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”\r\n</em>Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.<em>\r\n“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'big-techs-invasion-of-banking', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:09:48', '2019-11-11 10:09:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1239', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1240, 1, '2019-06-24 11:51:46', '2019-06-24 11:51:46', 'Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:<em>\r\n“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.\r\nThe scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.\r\nAfter successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”\r\n</em>Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.<em>\r\n“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1239-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-24 11:51:46', '2019-06-24 11:51:46', '', 1239, 'http://marcellus.in/1239-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1241, 1, '2019-04-21 03:22:03', '2019-04-21 03:22:03', '<em>This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.\r\nThese hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: “But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. “Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.\r\nBut other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.\r\nThey realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.\r\nThen there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).\r\nWhen people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>', 'The Moral Peril of Meritocracy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-moral-peril-of-meritocracy', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1241', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1242, 1, '2019-06-25 03:22:03', '2019-06-25 03:22:03', '<em>This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.\r\nThese hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: “But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. “Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.\r\nBut other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.\r\nThey realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.\r\nThen there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).\r\nWhen people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>', 'The Moral Peril of Meritocracy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1241-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:22:03', '2019-06-25 03:22:03', '', 1241, 'http://marcellus.in/1241-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1243, 1, '2019-04-28 03:22:52', '2019-04-28 03:22:52', '<em>Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.\r\nWe can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.\r\nOn the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………\r\nTo move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.\r\nNone of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-think-about-taxing-and-spending-like-a-swede', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1243', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1244, 1, '2019-06-25 03:22:52', '2019-06-25 03:22:52', '<em>Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.\r\nWe can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.\r\nOn the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………\r\nTo move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.\r\nNone of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>', 'How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1243-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:22:52', '2019-06-25 03:22:52', '', 1243, 'http://marcellus.in/1243-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1245, 1, '2019-04-21 03:23:56', '2019-04-21 03:23:56', '<em>After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\n….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business?\r\n…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.\r\nThe dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\nIt’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive.\r\nTake the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.\r\nBut the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues.\r\nA better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.\r\nRemember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”\r\nKnowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to Value a Pot Stock', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-value-a-pot-stock', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1245', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1246, 1, '2019-06-25 03:23:56', '2019-06-25 03:23:56', '<em>After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\n….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business?\r\n…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.\r\nThe dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\nIt’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive.\r\nTake the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.\r\nBut the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues.\r\nA better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.\r\nRemember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”\r\nKnowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to Value a Pot Stock', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1245-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:23:56', '2019-06-25 03:23:56', '', 1245, 'http://marcellus.in/1245-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1247, 1, '2019-04-28 03:27:23', '2019-04-28 03:27:23', '<em>Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”\r\nKaren’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)\r\nYet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.\r\n<u>Patronage on wall street</u>\r\nIn the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.\r\nJulia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..\r\nJay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.\r\n“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”\r\n“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.\r\n“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”\r\nThis patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.\r\n<u>A revolving door</u>\r\nPatrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….\r\nPatrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'elite-men-and-inequality-in-the-hedge-fund-industry', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1247', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1248, 1, '2019-06-25 03:27:23', '2019-06-25 03:27:23', '<em>Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”\r\nKaren’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)\r\nYet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.\r\n<u>Patronage on wall street</u>\r\nIn the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.\r\nJulia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..\r\nJay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.\r\n“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”\r\n“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.\r\n“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”\r\nThis patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.\r\n<u>A revolving door</u>\r\nPatrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….\r\nPatrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>', 'Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1247-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:27:23', '2019-06-25 03:27:23', '', 1247, 'http://marcellus.in/1247-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1249, 1, '2019-04-28 03:28:39', '2019-04-28 03:28:39', '<em>20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. “Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. “Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”\r\nFor 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow: “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”\r\nMore and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Netanyauism is Winning in Israel – and Globally', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'netanyauism-is-winning-in-israel-and-globally', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1249', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1250, 1, '2019-06-25 03:28:39', '2019-06-25 03:28:39', '<em>20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. “Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. “Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”\r\nFor 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow: “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”\r\nMore and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>', 'Netanyauism is Winning in Israel – and Globally', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1249-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:28:39', '2019-06-25 03:28:39', '', 1249, 'http://marcellus.in/1249-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1251, 1, '2019-04-28 03:39:10', '2019-04-28 03:39:10', '<em>This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). “At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.\r\nClaudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”… According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'having-kids-is-terrible-for-womens-earning-power', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1251', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1252, 1, '2019-06-25 03:39:10', '2019-06-25 03:39:10', '<em>This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). “At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.\r\nClaudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”… According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1251-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:39:10', '2019-06-25 03:39:10', '', 1251, 'http://marcellus.in/1251-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1253, 1, '2019-04-14 03:44:40', '2019-04-14 03:44:40', '<em>This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context – such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The star of the article is “George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? “George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? “Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: “All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Two’s Are Now Underestimated – The Mikan Drill For Stocks', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'twos-are-now-underestimated-the-mikan-drill-for-stocks', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1253', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1254, 1, '2019-06-25 03:44:40', '2019-06-25 03:44:40', '<em>This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context – such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The star of the article is “George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? “George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? “Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: “All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Two’s Are Now Underestimated – The Mikan Drill For Stocks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1253-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 03:44:40', '2019-06-25 03:44:40', '', 1253, 'http://marcellus.in/1253-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1255, 1, '2019-04-14 04:31:34', '2019-04-14 04:31:34', '<em>Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users’ Conversations', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'thousands-of-amazon-workers-listen-to-alexa-users-conversations', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1255', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1256, 1, '2019-06-25 04:31:34', '2019-06-25 04:31:34', '<em>Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users’ Conversations', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1255-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 04:31:34', '2019-06-25 04:31:34', '', 1255, 'http://marcellus.in/1255-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1257, 1, '2019-04-14 04:54:46', '2019-04-14 04:54:46', '<em>Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-humble-zipper-has-profound-things-to-tell-us-about-international-trade', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1257', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1258, 1, '2019-06-25 04:54:46', '2019-06-25 04:54:46', '<em>Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1257-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 04:54:46', '2019-06-25 04:54:46', '', 1257, 'http://marcellus.in/1257-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1259, 1, '2019-04-14 04:56:08', '2019-04-14 04:56:08', 'All of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n\r\n<em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. “We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-single-women-are-driving-gentrification-in-hong-kong-and-elsewhere', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:48:26', '2019-11-11 10:48:26', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1259', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1260, 1, '2019-06-25 04:56:08', '2019-06-25 04:56:08', 'All of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n\r\n<em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. “We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1259-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 04:56:08', '2019-06-25 04:56:08', '', 1259, 'http://marcellus.in/1259-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1261, 1, '2019-04-14 04:56:56', '2019-04-14 04:56:56', '<em>At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: “<strong>A decade of earnings predictability:</strong> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.\r\n<strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. “Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Replicating Buffet’s Wide Moat Investing Method', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'replicating-buffets-wide-moat-investing-method', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1261', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1262, 1, '2019-06-25 04:56:56', '2019-06-25 04:56:56', '<em>At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: “<strong>A decade of earnings predictability:</strong> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.\r\n<strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. “Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Replicating Buffet’s Wide Moat Investing Method', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1261-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 04:56:56', '2019-06-25 04:56:56', '', 1261, 'http://marcellus.in/1261-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1263, 1, '2019-04-14 04:57:58', '2019-04-14 04:57:58', '<em>A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-great-space-wait-how-virgin-galactic-kept-ticket-holders-interest-and-money', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1263', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1264, 1, '2019-06-25 04:57:58', '2019-06-25 04:57:58', '<em>A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1263-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 04:57:58', '2019-06-25 04:57:58', '', 1263, 'http://marcellus.in/1263-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1265, 1, '2019-04-07 05:01:33', '2019-04-07 05:01:33', '<em>In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management – is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: “…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: “Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, “DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: “DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'de-shaw-inside-manhattans-silicon-valley-hedge-fund', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1265', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1266, 1, '2019-06-25 05:01:33', '2019-06-25 05:01:33', '<em>In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management – is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: “…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: “Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, “DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: “DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1265-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:01:33', '2019-06-25 05:01:33', '', 1265, 'http://marcellus.in/1265-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1267, 1, '2019-04-07 05:02:43', '2019-04-07 05:02:43', '<em>The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. “…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. “We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: “In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: “Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: “The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The World’s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-worlds-cheapest-hospital-has-to-get-even-cheaper', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1267', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1268, 1, '2019-06-25 05:02:43', '2019-06-25 05:02:43', '<em>The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. “…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. “We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: “In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: “Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: “The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The World’s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1267-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:02:43', '2019-06-25 05:02:43', '', 1267, 'http://marcellus.in/1267-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1269, 1, '2019-04-07 05:19:39', '2019-04-07 05:19:39', '<em>Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-chinese-takeover-of-indian-app-ecosystem', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1269', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1270, 1, '2019-06-25 05:19:39', '2019-06-25 05:19:39', '<em>Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1269-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:19:39', '2019-06-25 05:19:39', '', 1269, 'http://marcellus.in/1269-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1271, 1, '2019-04-07 05:20:33', '2019-04-07 05:20:33', '<em>Kolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. “Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): “When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? “Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'In Kolkata, home is where the drama is', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'in-kolkata-home-is-where-the-drama-is', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1271', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1272, 1, '2019-06-25 05:20:33', '2019-06-25 05:20:33', '<em>Kolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. “Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): “When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? “Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'In Kolkata, home is where the drama is', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1271-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:20:33', '2019-06-25 05:20:33', '', 1271, 'http://marcellus.in/1271-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1273, 1, '2019-04-07 05:21:21', '2019-04-07 05:21:21', '<em>Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n\r\n<em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-eating-meat-was-banned-in-japan-for-centuries', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1273', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1274, 1, '2019-06-25 05:21:21', '2019-06-25 05:21:21', '<em>Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n\r\n<em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1273-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:21:21', '2019-06-25 05:21:21', '', 1273, 'http://marcellus.in/1273-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1275, 1, '2019-04-07 05:22:10', '2019-04-07 05:22:10', '<em>As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mindfulness-meditation-in-america-has-a-capitalism-problem', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1275', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1276, 1, '2019-06-25 05:22:10', '2019-06-25 05:22:10', '<em>As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1275-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:22:10', '2019-06-25 05:22:10', '', 1275, 'http://marcellus.in/1275-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1277, 1, '2019-05-12 05:30:30', '2019-05-12 05:30:30', '<em>Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: “…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? “…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.\r\nHere’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how “rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that “Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.”\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: “The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'vanguard-patented-a-way-to-avoid-taxes-on-mutual-funds', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1277', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1278, 1, '2019-06-25 05:30:30', '2019-06-25 05:30:30', '<em>Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: “…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? “…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.\r\nHere’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how “rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that “Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.”\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: “The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>', 'Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1277-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:30:30', '2019-06-25 05:30:30', '', 1277, 'http://marcellus.in/1277-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1279, 1, '2019-06-25 05:30:35', '2019-06-25 05:30:35', '<em>Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: “…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”\nSo how is this miracle performed? “…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.\nHere’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how “rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that “Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.”\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: “The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>', 'Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1277-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:30:35', '2019-06-25 05:30:35', '', 1277, 'http://marcellus.in/1277-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1280, 1, '2019-05-12 05:35:43', '2019-05-12 05:35:43', '<em>Millions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is “…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.” The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: “Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Truth about Dentistry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-truth-about-dentistry', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1280', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1281, 1, '2019-06-25 05:35:43', '2019-06-25 05:35:43', '<em>Millions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is “…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.” The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: “Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.</em>', 'The Truth about Dentistry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1280-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:35:43', '2019-06-25 05:35:43', '', 1280, 'http://marcellus.in/1280-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1282, 1, '2019-06-25 05:35:45', '2019-06-25 05:35:45', '<em>Millions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is “…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.” The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\n“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: “Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.</em>', 'The Truth about Dentistry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1280-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:35:45', '2019-06-25 05:35:45', '', 1280, 'http://marcellus.in/1280-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1283, 1, '2019-05-12 05:36:38', '2019-05-12 05:36:38', '<em>This unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.\r\nAs Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….\r\nAround 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'kidnapping-a-very-efficient-business', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1283', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1284, 1, '2019-06-25 05:36:38', '2019-06-25 05:36:38', '<em>This unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.\r\nAs Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….\r\nAround 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>', 'Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1283-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:36:38', '2019-06-25 05:36:38', '', 1283, 'http://marcellus.in/1283-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1285, 1, '2019-05-12 05:39:04', '2019-05-12 05:39:04', '<em>It was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade – consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,”\r\n“…The World Bank’s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows.\r\nDuring the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055.\r\nRoy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India’s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy.\r\nThe risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime.\r\n…And it’s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. “India’s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,” it had warned.\r\n…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world’s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world’s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India’s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest.\r\nA growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: “A time will come when that will stop.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi’s top guys', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'could-the-single-engine-driving-india-crash-yes-if-you-go-by-one-of-modis-top-guys', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1285', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1286, 1, '2019-06-25 05:39:04', '2019-06-25 05:39:04', '<em>It was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade – consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,”\r\n“…The World Bank’s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows.\r\nDuring the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055.\r\nRoy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India’s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy.\r\nThe risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime.\r\n…And it’s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. “India’s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,” it had warned.\r\n…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world’s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world’s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India’s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest.\r\nA growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: “A time will come when that will stop.”</em>', 'Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi’s top guys', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1285-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:39:04', '2019-06-25 05:39:04', '', 1285, 'http://marcellus.in/1285-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1287, 1, '2019-05-12 05:43:54', '2019-05-12 05:43:54', 'In his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Dear school leavers, don’t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dear-school-leavers-dont-believe-all-the-stories-that-will-be-told-to-you-about-the-world-you-face', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:16:39', '2019-06-28 05:16:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1287', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1288, 1, '2019-06-25 05:43:54', '2019-06-25 05:43:54', 'In his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>', 'Dear school leavers, don’t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1287-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:43:54', '2019-06-25 05:43:54', '', 1287, 'http://marcellus.in/1287-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1289, 1, '2019-06-25 05:43:58', '2019-06-25 05:43:58', 'In his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>', 'Dear school leavers, don’t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1287-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:43:58', '2019-06-25 05:43:58', '', 1287, 'http://marcellus.in/1287-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1290, 1, '2019-05-12 05:44:47', '2019-05-12 05:44:47', '<em>The iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. “Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”\r\n….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?\r\nSocial media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.\r\nIn 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.\r\nOne BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”\r\n…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice<strong>. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-radical-transparency-about-salaries-can-pay-off', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1290', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1291, 1, '2019-06-25 05:44:47', '2019-06-25 05:44:47', '<em>The iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. “Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”\r\n….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?\r\nSocial media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.\r\nIn 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.\r\nOne BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”\r\n…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1290-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 05:44:47', '2019-06-25 05:44:47', '', 1290, 'http://marcellus.in/1290-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1292, 1, '2019-05-05 07:22:05', '2019-05-05 07:22:05', '<em>Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> “The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.”” So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? “Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”\r\n–    </em><em><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> “Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> “Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.” The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'You played yourself', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'you-played-yourself', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1292', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1293, 1, '2019-06-25 07:22:05', '2019-06-25 07:22:05', '<em>Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> “The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.”” So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? “Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”\r\n–    </em><em><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> “Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> “Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.” The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</em>', 'You played yourself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1292-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:22:05', '2019-06-25 07:22:05', '', 1292, 'http://marcellus.in/1292-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1294, 1, '2019-05-05 07:23:05', '2019-05-05 07:23:05', '<em>Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. ““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. “The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. “Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. “Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-kleiner-perkins-empire-fell', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1294', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1295, 1, '2019-06-25 07:23:05', '2019-06-25 07:23:05', '<em>Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. ““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. “The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. “Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. “Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</em>', 'How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1294-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:23:05', '2019-06-25 07:23:05', '', 1294, 'http://marcellus.in/1294-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1296, 1, '2019-05-05 07:24:43', '2019-05-05 07:24:43', 'A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n\r\n“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.\r\n\r\nIn the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.\r\n\r\nThere is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.\r\n\r\nThe result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.\r\n\r\nThe neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'progressive-capitalism-is-not-an-oxymoron', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:01:09', '2019-11-11 10:01:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1296', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1297, 1, '2019-06-25 07:24:43', '2019-06-25 07:24:43', '<em>A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1296-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:24:43', '2019-06-25 07:24:43', '', 1296, 'http://marcellus.in/1296-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1298, 1, '2019-05-05 07:28:22', '2019-05-05 07:28:22', '<em>This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. “Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. “Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Political good girls are losing the battle', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'political-good-girls-are-losing-the-battle', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1298', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1299, 1, '2019-06-25 07:28:22', '2019-06-25 07:28:22', '<em>This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. “Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. “Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>', 'Political good girls are losing the battle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1298-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:28:22', '2019-06-25 07:28:22', '', 1298, 'http://marcellus.in/1298-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1300, 1, '2019-05-05 07:29:43', '2019-05-05 07:29:43', '<em>Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.\r\nThe Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.\r\nIn Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'chinas-debt-diplomacy-is-a-misnomer-call-it-crony-diplomacy', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1300', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1301, 1, '2019-06-25 07:29:43', '2019-06-25 07:29:43', '<em>Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.\r\nThe Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.\r\nIn Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>', 'China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1300-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:29:43', '2019-06-25 07:29:43', '', 1300, 'http://marcellus.in/1300-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1302, 1, '2019-05-05 07:30:23', '2019-05-05 07:30:23', '<em>Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, <strong>Charles Ellis</strong> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.\r\nAmateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.\r\n….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.\r\nIn a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'avoiding-stupidity-is-easier-than-seeking-brilliance', '', '', '2019-06-27 06:58:41', '2019-06-27 06:58:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1302', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1303, 1, '2019-06-25 07:30:23', '2019-06-25 07:30:23', '<em>Farnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=83797b6f48&amp;e=5648501957\">The Loser’s Game</a>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, <strong>Charles Ellis</strong> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.\r\nAmateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.\r\n….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.\r\nIn a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1302-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 07:30:23', '2019-06-25 07:30:23', '', 1302, 'http://marcellus.in/1302-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1305, 1, '2019-06-23 08:42:00', '2019-06-23 08:42:00', 'In this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-houston-astros-disrupted-player-development-to-become-the-model-mlb-franchise', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:54:24', '2019-11-06 10:54:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1305', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1306, 1, '2019-06-25 08:42:00', '2019-06-25 08:42:00', 'In this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>', 'How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1305-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:42:00', '2019-06-25 08:42:00', '', 1305, 'http://marcellus.in/1305-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1307, 1, '2019-06-23 08:43:47', '2019-06-23 08:43:47', 'In order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Scotland is on the front line in the fight against “cash deserts”', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'scotland-is-on-the-front-line-in-the-fight-against-cash-deserts', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:52:36', '2019-11-06 10:52:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1307', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1308, 1, '2019-06-25 08:43:47', '2019-06-25 08:43:47', 'In order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>', 'Scotland is on the front line in the fight against “cash deserts”', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1307-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:43:47', '2019-06-25 08:43:47', '', 1307, 'http://marcellus.in/1307-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1309, 1, '2019-06-23 08:45:11', '2019-06-23 08:45:11', 'In our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-singular-pursuit-of-comrade-bezos', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:50:02', '2019-11-06 10:50:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1309', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1310, 1, '2019-06-25 08:45:11', '2019-06-25 08:45:11', 'In our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>', 'The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1309-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:45:11', '2019-06-25 08:45:11', '', 1309, 'http://marcellus.in/1309-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1311, 1, '2019-06-23 08:46:13', '2019-06-23 08:46:13', 'Whilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-a-janitor-at-frito-lay-invented-flamin-hot-cheetos', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:45:00', '2019-11-06 10:45:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1311', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1312, 1, '2019-06-25 08:46:13', '2019-06-25 08:46:13', 'Whilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>', 'How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1311-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:46:13', '2019-06-25 08:46:13', '', 1311, 'http://marcellus.in/1311-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1313, 1, '2019-06-25 08:46:17', '2019-06-25 08:46:17', 'Whilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>', 'How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1311-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:46:17', '2019-06-25 08:46:17', '', 1311, 'http://marcellus.in/1311-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1314, 1, '2019-06-23 08:47:09', '2019-06-23 08:47:09', 'The Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The promotion curse', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-promotion-curse', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:29:51', '2019-06-28 03:29:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1314', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1315, 1, '2019-06-25 08:47:09', '2019-06-25 08:47:09', 'The Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>', 'The promotion curse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1314-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:47:09', '2019-06-25 08:47:09', '', 1314, 'http://marcellus.in/1314-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1316, 1, '2019-06-23 08:47:48', '2019-06-23 08:47:48', 'For those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India’s hottest place', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-people-keep-their-cool-during-summer-in-churu-indias-hottest-place', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:42:58', '2019-11-06 10:42:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1316', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1317, 1, '2019-06-25 08:47:48', '2019-06-25 08:47:48', 'For those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India’s hottest place', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1316-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:47:48', '2019-06-25 08:47:48', '', 1316, 'http://marcellus.in/1316-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1318, 1, '2019-06-25 08:48:19', '2019-06-25 08:48:19', 'For those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India’s hottest place', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1316-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:48:19', '2019-06-25 08:48:19', '', 1316, 'http://marcellus.in/1316-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1319, 1, '2019-06-16 08:51:07', '2019-06-16 08:51:07', '<em>As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.\r\nGraham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”\r\nGraham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: “Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.\r\nAnalytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-data-and-some-breathtaking-soccer-brought-liverpool-to-the-cusp-of-glory', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1319', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1320, 1, '2019-06-25 08:51:07', '2019-06-25 08:51:07', '<em>As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.\r\nGraham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”\r\nGraham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: “Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.\r\nAnalytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory</em>', 'How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1319-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:51:07', '2019-06-25 08:51:07', '', 1319, 'http://marcellus.in/1319-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1321, 1, '2019-06-16 08:51:56', '2019-06-16 08:51:56', '<em>New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. “Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. “In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?… Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. “Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown.\r\nIn sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.\r\nSix years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing – or Just Wasting Time?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'josh-and-barry-tweet-like-crazy-are-they-revolutionaizing-ria-marketing-or-just-wasting-time', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1321', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1322, 1, '2019-06-25 08:51:56', '2019-06-25 08:51:56', '<em>New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. “Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. “In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?… Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. “Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown.\r\nIn sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.\r\nSix years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>', 'Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing – or Just Wasting Time?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1321-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:51:56', '2019-06-25 08:51:56', '', 1321, 'http://marcellus.in/1321-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1323, 1, '2019-06-16 08:52:53', '2019-06-16 08:52:53', '<em>In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, “is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.\r\nHaving said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.\r\nTo follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, “At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.\r\nPeople who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story?\r\nThe experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: <strong>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</strong>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Does reading fiction make us better people?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'does-reading-fiction-make-us-better-people', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1323', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1324, 1, '2019-06-25 08:52:53', '2019-06-25 08:52:53', '<em>In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, “is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.\r\nHaving said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.\r\nTo follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, “At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.\r\nPeople who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story?\r\nThe experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: <strong>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</strong>.”</em>', 'Does reading fiction make us better people?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1323-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:52:53', '2019-06-25 08:52:53', '', 1323, 'http://marcellus.in/1323-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1325, 1, '2019-06-16 08:59:50', '2019-06-16 08:59:50', '<em>Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\">Edsel Ford Fong</a> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\">Hall of Shame</a> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\">FAQ</a> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.\r\nTo loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”\r\nOne morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)\r\n….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.\r\nIn a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”\r\n“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-restaurant-owner-who-asked-for-1-star-yelp-reviews', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1325', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1326, 1, '2019-06-25 08:59:50', '2019-06-25 08:59:50', '<em>Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\">Edsel Ford Fong</a> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\">Hall of Shame</a> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\">FAQ</a> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.\r\nTo loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”\r\nOne morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)\r\n….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.\r\nIn a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”\r\n“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>', 'The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1325-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 08:59:50', '2019-06-25 08:59:50', '', 1325, 'http://marcellus.in/1325-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1327, 1, '2019-06-16 09:01:44', '2019-06-16 09:01:44', '<em>It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star –  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.\r\nManaging basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.\r\n…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy.\r\n….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”\r\nMr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”\r\nMr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect C<strong>apital, manages contracts worth $</strong>1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.\r\n…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'meet-the-money-whisperer-to-the-super-rich-n-b-a-elite', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:24:16', '2019-11-06 11:24:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1327', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1328, 1, '2019-06-25 09:01:44', '2019-06-25 09:01:44', '<em>It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star –  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.\r\nManaging basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.\r\n…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy.\r\n….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”\r\nMr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”\r\nMr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect Capital, manages contracts worth $1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.\r\n…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>', 'Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1327-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:01:44', '2019-06-25 09:01:44', '', 1327, 'http://marcellus.in/1327-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1329, 1, '2019-06-16 09:02:28', '2019-06-16 09:02:28', 'Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.\r\nThey are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.\r\n…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They’re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the “sober curious,” people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.\r\nKin’s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called “High Rhode.” It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics.\r\n…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is “Murder Your Thirst.” Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, “This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.”\r\nThe idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they’re downing simple H2O.\r\nThe original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you’re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the ‘sober curious’', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'people-are-sick-of-drinking-investors-are-betting-on-the-sober-curious', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:07:41', '2019-11-06 11:07:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1329', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1330, 1, '2019-06-25 09:02:28', '2019-06-25 09:02:28', '<em>Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.\r\nThey are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.\r\n…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They’re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the “sober curious,” people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.\r\nKin’s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called “High Rhode.” It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics.\r\n…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is “Murder Your Thirst.” Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, “This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.”\r\nThe idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they’re downing simple H2O.\r\nThe original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you’re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the ‘sober curious’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1329-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:02:28', '2019-06-25 09:02:28', '', 1329, 'http://marcellus.in/1329-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1331, 1, '2019-06-06 09:04:36', '2019-06-06 09:04:36', 'American fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'return-on-capital-super-heroes', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:20:28', '2019-11-08 12:20:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1331', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1332, 1, '2019-06-25 09:04:36', '2019-06-25 09:04:36', 'American fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1331-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:04:36', '2019-06-25 09:04:36', '', 1331, 'http://marcellus.in/1331-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1333, 1, '2019-06-06 09:05:27', '2019-06-06 09:05:27', 'Diamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. “As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: “Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: “In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: “And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”', 'Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'beyond-the-hype-of-lab-grown-diamonds', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:18:57', '2019-11-08 12:18:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1333', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1375, 1, '2019-06-26 08:55:31', '2019-06-26 08:55:31', 'Diamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. “As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: “Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: “In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: “And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”', 'Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1333-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 08:55:31', '2019-06-26 08:55:31', '', 1333, 'http://marcellus.in/1333-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1334, 1, '2019-06-25 09:05:27', '2019-06-25 09:05:27', 'Diamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. <em>“As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”</em>\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds<em>. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”</em>\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: <em>“Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”</em>\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: <em>“In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”</em>\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: <em>“And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”</em>', 'Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1333-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:05:27', '2019-06-25 09:05:27', '', 1333, 'http://marcellus.in/1333-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1335, 1, '2019-06-06 09:06:17', '2019-06-06 09:06:17', 'IT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Why Doctors Hate Their Computers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-doctors-hate-their-computers', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:03:57', '2019-06-28 05:03:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1335', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1336, 1, '2019-06-25 09:06:17', '2019-06-25 09:06:17', 'IT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>', 'Why Doctors Hate Their Computers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1335-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:06:17', '2019-06-25 09:06:17', '', 1335, 'http://marcellus.in/1335-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1337, 1, '2019-06-06 09:07:19', '2019-06-06 09:07:19', 'This conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'if-akbar-and-ibrahim-ii-had-met-they-would-have-liked-each-other-manu-s-pillai', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:53:38', '2019-06-28 04:53:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1337', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1338, 1, '2019-06-25 09:07:19', '2019-06-25 09:07:19', 'This conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>', 'If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1337-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:07:19', '2019-06-25 09:07:19', '', 1337, 'http://marcellus.in/1337-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1339, 1, '2019-06-06 09:08:45', '2019-06-06 09:08:45', 'Elena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-tracking-your-symptoms-can-make-you-feel-worse', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:58:04', '2019-11-06 11:58:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1339', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1340, 1, '2019-06-25 09:08:45', '2019-06-25 09:08:45', 'Elena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>6. </strong><strong>Short read: Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself</strong>', 'Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1339-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:08:45', '2019-06-25 09:08:45', '', 1339, 'http://marcellus.in/1339-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1342, 1, '2019-06-06 09:09:36', '2019-06-06 09:09:36', 'Utkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'influencer-grannies-are-a-lesson-in-how-to-reinvent-oneself', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:43:11', '2019-11-06 11:43:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1342', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1343, 1, '2019-06-25 09:09:36', '2019-06-25 09:09:36', 'Utkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1342-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 09:09:36', '2019-06-25 09:09:36', '', 1342, 'http://marcellus.in/1342-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1521, 1, '2019-07-26 11:37:41', '2019-07-26 11:37:41', '', 'Disclosure Document - Marcellus Consistent Compounders Scheme dated 27th July 2019-compressed_compressed -min', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'disclosure-document-marcellus-consistent-compounders-scheme-dated-27th-july-2019-compressed_compressed-min', '', '', '2019-07-26 11:37:41', '2019-07-26 11:37:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-min.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(1523, 1, '2019-07-28 10:41:04', '2019-07-28 10:41:04', 'Author: Margaret Morris\r\nSource: Fivebooks.com (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51ba133f23&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fivebooks.com/best-books/how-to-use-technology-margaret-morris/</a>)\r\nPsychologist Margaret Morris talks about the five books that shaped her approach to technology. These books are:\r\n·       The Saturated Self by Kenneth Gergen;\r\n·       The Stories We Live By: Personal Myths And The Making Of The Self by Dan McAdams;\r\n·       How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett\r\n·       Loneliness – Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by  John T. Cacioppo  and William Patrick;\r\n·       Evocative Objects – Things we think with by by Sherry Turkle, Tod Machover, Carol Strohecker, Susan Yee and Mitchel Resnick.\r\nHer central point is that whether technology benefits you or damages you/your family/your relationships, etc depends on how well you use technology. These five books can show you how to use technology better.\r\nDan McAdams’ book highlights something called the interview process which one can use to optimise one’s use of social media: <em>“That interview process was developed by psychologist Dan McAdams, who wrote one of the books that I’ve recommended, The Stories We Live By. I first ask students to do that interview with themselves. It’s a pretty personal and in-depth thing just to acknowledge the major chapters, themes and struggles in one’s life. Next they integrate a description of the technologies that were significant at different points in their lives. Then they find points where their technology use might be either exacerbating certain struggles or certainly not helping them move on. They might recognize what Dan McAdams calls ‘a narrative rut.’ Then they can start thinking about what to do differently. So that’s a pretty explicit, deliberate approach.”</em>\r\nLisa Feldman Barrett turns the argument that technology influences us on its head. Instead she shows in her book how <em>“…we can become “the architects of our experiences.” She pushes against the idea that events trigger emotions in a predetermined way and suggests we find the most specific language possible to describe our experiences and feelings. This specificity may propel us to move forward from challenges in a constructive way…We are not just this objective summary of what has happened to us. We are our interpretations of things, and how we articulate them...</em> <em>Her work suggests that perhaps what’s going to really help a person is actually not technology that tells them how they’re feeling, but something that helps them articulate how they’re feeling.”</em>\r\nJohn Cacioppo’s book delves into an unusual subject. He focuses <em>“…tools to help people—particularly people in later life—reach out to others, or at least recognize that loneliness isn’t something that’s fixed and a necessary part of life. In one project for older adults and their caregivers, we depicted loneliness—or, on the flipside, social connectedness—in a visual display that looked like a solar system. It was driven by sensors and also a journal that they kept. In making this with interaction designers and developers, what I really wanted was to take some ideas about loneliness from John Cacioppo’s work and from ‘learned helplessness’ to show that things are changeable…Learned helplessness is when someone stops trying to change a negative situation after repeated failures. The situation is perceived as fixed or stable, part of an attributional style that’s associated with depression. In the case of his study, that would be the feeling that as one participant said at the start of the study ‘Loneliness is a part of old age and there’s nothing you can do about it.’</em>\r\n<em>We wanted to create feedback that immediately rewarded social effort. So that if the older adult made a phone call or sent an email or had someone over, the dynamic display immediately updated to reinforce that effort. It conveyed that they could change their social engagement through small steps.</em>\r\n<em>The other part of it is what you can do to bring about change. One of the things I found really interesting in John Cacioppo’s work is that loneliness isn’t exclusively about receiving social support. It’s about participating in different kinds of relationships and communities. Making small gestures for others and not expecting anything in return is one really positive path out of loneliness.”</em>\r\nSheryl Turkle and her colleagues’ book is a collection of essays about cherished objects. <em>“Turkle investigates and celebrates the attachment that we have to objects. The relationships with objects isn’t between one person and one thing. There are all these human relationships and stories that are entangled in our attachment to objects. That is why a lot of people are attached to their phones. It’s not about the device, it’s about the relationships and the validation that they can have access to through these devices. That’s why they’re so important to them, they are a touchpoint for all that human connection.</em>\r\n<em>There’s always the question, ‘Why are people spending so much time on their screens?’ I think maybe a slightly better question is, ‘What are they getting out of it?’ or ‘What are they seeking from their screens?’ There’s a search for a signal that I matter, or that people want to talk to me. It’s acknowledging that I’m desirable, I’m important, I’m significant to other people.</em>\r\n<em>That’s maybe a more fruitful conversation to have than just wondering how we get people to be less attached to their screens. Maybe kids need more validation, more world-opening experiences or more role models than those available to them in their local environments. Or maybe they just need more excitement. It’s about addressing those needs. Those are the kind of things we should be thinking about.”</em>', 'How To Use Technology And Not Be Used By It: A Psychologist’s Reading List', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1522-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:41:04', '2019-07-28 10:41:04', '', 1522, 'http://marcellus.in/1522-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1519, 1, '2019-07-26 10:37:58', '2019-07-26 10:37:58', '', 'Disclosure Document - Marcellus Consistent Compounders Scheme dated 27th July 2019-compressed_compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'disclosure-document-marcellus-consistent-compounders-scheme-dated-27th-july-2019-compressed_compressed', '', '', '2019-07-26 10:37:58', '2019-07-26 10:37:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Disclosure-Document-Marcellus-Consistent-Compounders-Scheme-dated-27th-July-2019-compressed_compressed-.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(1349, 1, '2019-01-25 13:16:20', '2019-01-25 13:16:20', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a </span><strong style=\"color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Compliance Officer </strong><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">with at least four years of work experience in a Compliance role in a reputed Financial Services firm. Preference will be given to candidates with legal qualifications  (LLB or LLM) from reputed institutions and with experience in compliance with SEBI PMS &amp; Registered Investment Advisor regulations, FPI regulations, company law, drafting and vetting of contracts and other legal documents. Interested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 15<sup>th</sup> July 2019.</span></span></em>', 'Compliance Officer', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', 'compliance-officer', '', '', '2019-10-18 11:09:41', '2019-10-18 11:09:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=1349', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
(1350, 1, '2019-06-25 13:18:24', '2019-06-25 13:18:24', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Marcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a </span><strong style=\"color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, serif;\">Compliance Officer </strong><span style=\"font-family: Georgia, serif;\">with at least four years of work experience in a Compliance role in a reputed Financial Services firm. Preference will be given to candidates with legal qualifications  (LLB or LLM) from reputed institutions and with experience in compliance with SEBI PMS &amp; Registered Investment Advisor regulations, FPI regulations, company law, drafting and vetting of contracts and other legal documents. Interested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:research@marcellus.in\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 15<sup>th</sup> July 2019.</span></span></em>', 'Compliance Officer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1349-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-25 13:18:24', '2019-06-25 13:18:24', '', 1349, 'http://marcellus.in/1349-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1460, 1, '2019-07-07 08:07:02', '2019-07-07 08:07:02', 'Author: Nick Maggiulli\r\nSource: Of Dollars and Data (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a6f504fcfa&amp;e=5648501957\">https://ofdollarsanddata.com/should-you-take-the-annuity-or-the-lump-sum/</a>)\r\nIn the book Coffee Can Investing, co-authored by our colleagues Saurabh Mukherjea and Rakshit Ranjan, they highlight the gross under-provision for retirement amongst middle class Indian families, not just because of the sub-optimal asset allocation (often skewed towards real estate) but exacerbated by rising life expectancy i.e, the very real possibility that people could outlive or outspend their savings. In a country with no meaningful social security, this is likely to be an endemic challenge. <em>“…as William Sharpe, the Nobel Laureate, notes, retirement is the “nastiest, hardest problem in finance.”…...With the multiple layers of uncertainty (inflation, life expectancy, returns, and lifestyle choices) the problem is not solvable in the strict sense” </em>says Nick Maggiulli of Ritholtz Wealth Management in this piece as he discusses one such relevant dilemma which many people face as they approach their retirement age: “Lump Sum vs. Annuity decision”. Whilst he acknowledges there is no one-size fits all solution, he does provide a framework to resolve the dilemma based on one’s specific circumstances.\r\n<em>At some point in our life we will have to choose between two options - 1) Lump Sum: Receive $XXX today of qualified money, or 2) Annuity: Receive $XX a month for life starting X years from today (this is when you would reach age 60-62)</em>\r\n<em>On the face of it the problem might look simple with a simple solution – find the present value of the future payout and compare it with the lumpsum amount. But if you consider various other variables in the equation (like inflation, life expectancy, spending rate, returns etc), the problem becomes challenging. </em>\r\n<em>The risk you take in both situations are:</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>With the Lump Sum there is the risk of outliving your money either due to long life or subpar investment returns. </em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>With the Annuity there is the risk of dying before retirement age and the risk of seeing your income lose its purchasing power due to inflation</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>There is no one single correct answer and it all depends what risk do you want to take.</em>', 'Should You Take the Annunity or the Lump Sum?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1459-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:07:02', '2019-07-07 08:07:02', '', 1459, 'http://marcellus.in/1459-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1352, 1, '2019-02-01 05:48:50', '2019-02-01 05:48:50', '<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Philosophy identifies firms with high pricing power that helps sustain a wide gap between returns on capital employed and cost of equity. The portfolio holds such firms for 8-10 years on average and aims to deliver healthy returns with volatility like that of a government bond. We also made the first churn in our portfolio since inception – sold Gruh Finance.</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our first newsletter, we highlight one of the most unique characteristics of Indian economy and how the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS is positioned to benefit from it.\r\n\r\nIndia is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity (see table below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1354\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"234\" />\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row (see table\r\nand chart below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1355\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news1-2-300x156.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"390\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nMost conventional valuation methodologies (P/E multiples or PEG ratios or Discounted Cash Flows) assume that this gap between ROCE and COE will compress over the next 5/10/15 years. This is because- as is often seen in the Western economies - a wide gap between ROCE and COE invites intense competition which forces the gap to narrow down as the dominant players compromise on the quantum of earnings generated on each unit of capital employed.\r\n\r\nHowever, there are a few firms in India which have such a high pricing power / competitive advantage, that they can sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE over very long periods of time. The chart on Asian Paints below probably the best example of such firms.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1356 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news1-3-e1561530612461.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"451\" />\r\n\r\nThe gap between ROCE and COE is the free cash flow that a firm generates for its shareholders. Provided these firms sustain this wide gap whilst also growing their capital employed, they will give a healthy earnings growth, consistently over long periods of time, regardless of changes in the internal or external operating environment of these companies. We call these firms <strong>‘Consistent Compounders’</strong>.\r\n\r\nOnce an investor builds a portfolio of such firms, all that he should do is hold them for long periods of time and benefit from the power of compounding of healthy returns, with the volatility in these returns being like that of a government bond!\r\n\r\nThis sounds very simple, but simple is not always easy! The first challenge is that whilst it is easy to find firms like Maruti Suzuki which maintain their industry dominance (&gt;50% market share of cars in India), their average ROCE (for the last 10 years) is only 17% - like that of Toyota and Hanes highlighted above. The second challengeis that amongst firms that sustain a wide gap between ROCE and COE, there will be examples like Hindustan Unilever (HUL) which do not find avenues to grow their capital employed and hence, despite maintaining &gt;80% ROCE over the past 10-15 years, end up generating an annualised earnings growth of only 8% (CAGR) over this same period. The third challenge is that even if an investor holds stocks like Asian Paints in his portfolio (healthy ROCE with healthy growth), lack of enough conviction in the fundamentals of firms like Asian Paints leads to a less than ideal percentage allocation in the portfolio and shorter than ideal holding period of such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders benefits from the resilience of India’s middle-class households </strong>\r\n\r\nOur PMS Portfolio consists of 12 stocks which we believe are ‘consistent compounders’. Interestingly, all these stocks belong to small-ticket B2C (business to consumers) sectors like banks,FMCG, apparel, footwear,diagnostic labs (retail) and home building materials. As a result, the portfolio benefits from the scale, relentlessdrive and resilience of Indian middle-class households by taking part in the evolution of day-to-day basic needs of these households.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gruh Finance exit – Our first portfolio churn since inception</strong>\r\nDuring the month of January 2019, we executed the first exit in our portfolio since inception. We had allocated 8% of our AUM (assets under management) to shares in Gruh Finance - an HDFC Ltd subsidiary providing home loans to sub-prime borrowers predominantly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka.\r\n\r\nThe competitive advantages of Gruh are around its ability to maintain asset quality discipline, access to low cost of funds, and high operating efficiencies. Amongst the various factors contributing to these competitive advantages, were the following three factors: a) the stellar quality of its board of directors, which included the senior management team of HDFC Ltd; b) the quality of Gruh’s management team led by Sudhin Choksey; and c) a gradual (rather than rapid) pace of geographical expansion over the past 20 years, which helped Gruh\r\nunderstand its borrowers better.\r\n\r\nOn the evening of 7th January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank which meant that all our clients were being offered shares of Bandhan Bank in exchange to the shares held in Gruh Finance. Given the nature of this transaction, we had concerns around the sustainability of the three sources of competitive advantages highlighted above, and hence – after a long overnight discussion - our Investment Committee accepted the proposal to exit Gruh Finance from all our client portfolios first thing on the morningof 8th January.\r\n\r\nWe sold Gruh Finance for all our clients at Rs 281 per share on 8th January at 9.15am. Another NBFC, Bajaj Finance, has replaced Gruh in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31st January 2019 </strong>\r\n\r\nGiven the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1357 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news1-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"922\" height=\"485\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated </strong><strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an</strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Why India is Blessed with Consistent Compounders?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'why-india-is-blessed-with-consistent-compounders', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:57:01', '2020-01-20 10:57:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1352', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(1357, 1, '2019-06-26 05:05:45', '2019-06-26 05:05:45', '', 'news1-4', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'news1-4', '', '', '2019-06-26 05:05:45', '2019-06-26 05:05:45', '', 1352, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news1-4.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1358, 1, '2019-06-27 04:30:25', '2019-06-27 04:30:25', '<em>Published on:27 June, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>Charlie Munger, as much as Warren Buffett, has lessons for those who invest in Indian stocks. The central tenet of our 12 stock portfolio from a 25 stock investment universe is inspired by Munger’s approach to developing deep knowledge, building mental models and staying within a tight circle of competence. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>[Marcellus is recruiting a Compliance Officer and a Quant Analyst. Click here for more details: </strong><strong><a href=\"/jobs/\"> https://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>\r\n<em>“Carnegie was always proud that he took very little salary. Rockefeller and Vanderbilt were the same. It was a common culture in a different era. All of these people thought of themselves as the founder…If you’re highly conscientious and you hate to disappoint, you will feel the pressure to live up to your incentive fee.” – <strong>Charlie Munger </strong>(Berkshire AGM, 2003) </em></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>The key insights of a giant intellect</strong>\r\nA uniquely original and astonishingly capable mind, learned across multiple disciplines without taking a single course in university on business or finance, Charlie Munger’s life provides rich learnings for those who seek wisdom. <strong>At the core of Munger’s wisdom is the realisation that thinking does not come naturally to the vast majority of people in the stockmarket i.e. most of us do NOT think most of the time</strong>; we parrot/imitate and respond reflexively to what we read, see and hear. Therefore, if we can set up systems &amp; processes and learn tricks which teach us to think, in fact make us think, we will gradually become better than most people around us. This central insight from Munger is extremely relevant for investors in a market like India where herd instinct is even stronger than it is in the developed markets and where accounting/governance inadequacies characterise even prominent companies.\r\n\r\nBasis our reading of three superb books – ‘Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger’ (2003) by Peter Bevelin, ‘Charlie Munger: the Complete Investor’ (2015) by Tren Griffin, and ‘Poor Charlie’s Almanack’ (2005)  - we provide our summary of what we are trying to learn from this titan:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Continuously learning, thinking, building mental models &amp; deep knowledge</strong>: In order to benefit from this model of focused learning, we need to be patient and we need to realise that there will always be people who will be going faster than us. However, if we persist, we will benefit from what is called the second half of the chessboard – the knowledge compounding heaven where the real action takes place (see <a href=\"https://medium.com/@brian.leiberman1/the-second-half-of-the-chessboard-understanding-exponential-leaps-forward-1ee0832a10c3\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://medium.com/@brian.leiberman1/the-second-half-of-the-chessboard-understanding-exponential-leaps-forward-1ee0832a10c3</a>\r\n. In Munger’s words, <em>“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThere’s another way to think about what Munger is saying. If we gradually build a repository of knowledge and accumulated experience of real world situations, we will gradually become more able to correlate problems we are coming across with the knowledge we have already accumulated. In the words of the psychologist-cum-economist Herbert Simon, <em>“The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition.”</em>\r\n\r\n<b>2. Understanding our circle of competence and staying within it:</b> A decade ago, Munger said in a BBC interview, <em>“We have to deal with things that we’re capable of understanding.”</em> At Marcellus have repeatedly been asked why don’t we invest in stocks which don’t have high Return on Capital and strong cashflows. After all, the thinking goes, great investors are all about finding decent companies at bargain prices. However, since we can’t second guess how an ugly frog will become a handsome prince, we have focused on our core competence of investing in great franchises with strong moats &amp; clean management. To quote Munger, <em>“It’s obvious that if a company generates high returns on capital and reinvests at high returns, it will do well. But this wouldn’t sell books, so there’s a lot of twaddle and fuzzy concepts that have been introduced that don’t add much.”</em>\r\n\r\nMunger also makes the broader point that <em>“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant”</em> and <em>“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.” </em>Munger’s friend Li Lu has restated this nicely: <em>“The true insights a person can get in life are still very limited, so correct decision making must necessarily be confined to your “circle of competence”. A “competence” that has no defined borders cannot be called a true competence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>3. Focus on one or two variables:</strong> Both in the businesses he invested in and in the way he gradually built a vast body of knowledge, Munger learned to focus on the one or two variables which drive success. In his words <em>“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.” </em>\r\n\r\nAs Farnam Street said in a blog honouring Munger, <em>“When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.” </em>(See <a href=\"https://fs.blog/2017/02/charlie-munger-wisdom/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://fs.blog/2017/02/charlie-munger-wisdom/</a>\r\n\r\nWarren Buffett has articulated this point of view from the perspective of an investor: <em>“You only have to be right on a very, very few things in your lifetime as long as you never make any big mistakes…An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>4. Focus on outstanding businesses, NOT on cheap stocks:</strong> Until he started collaborating with Munger, Buffett was focused on using Ben Graham’s cigar-butt style of ‘value investing’. Munger’s influence played a major role in Buffett gradually abandoning this style through the 1970s and 1980s and moving towards investing in outstanding franchises like Capital Cities/ABC and Coca Cola. Munger deserves enormous credit for first saying:\r\n\r\n<em>“Ben Graham had blind spots. He had too low an appreciation of the fact some businesses were worth paying big premiums for.”</em> and then saying:\r\n<em>“Ben Graham had a lot to learn as an investor. His ideas on how to value companies were all shaped by how the Great Crash and Depression almost destroyed him, and he was always a little afraid of what the market can do. It left him with an aftermath of fear for the rest of his life, and all his methods were designed to keep that at bay. I think Ben Graham wasn’t nearly as good an investor as Warren Buffett is or even as good as I am. Buying those cheap, cigar-butt stocks [companies with limited potential growth selling at a fraction of what they would be worth in a takeover or liquidation] was a snare and a delusion…” </em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, this resulted in an investment style for Munger (heavily influenced by the great Phil Fisher) which works nicely for us in India and has given us a portfolio of moated, relatively clean, well run companies like Asian Paints, Marico, HDFC Bank and Page Industries. In Munger’s words, <em>“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>5. Carefully choose the people you work with:</strong> We are fortunate insofar as hundreds of people send us their CVs . However, Munger says one has to be selective because people who do unwise things in one setting usually proceed to do unwise things in other setting as well. In Munger’s words, <em>“…it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nOur team’s coverage universe of Indian stocks is only 25. Our Consistent Compounders Portfolio has only 12 stocks in it. We have five analysts in our team and each is required to dissect only 4-5 stocks. Why? Because we don’t think we can realistically ask our analysts to build deep knowledge on more than this number of companies. By ‘deep knowledge’ we mean: (a) familiarity with the last 15 years of annual reports of each of these companies; (b) deep understanding of every single major capital allocation decision made by these companies over the last 15 years; (c) a deeper understanding of the competitive advantages – or the lack thereof – of these companies than anyone else in the Indian stockmarket has; and (d) full understanding of accounting/governance tricks being used to flatter profits &amp; networth. The two variables we obsessively focus on are a company’s sustainable competitive advantages and its accounting quality. All our effort goes in training and teaching ourselves to understand how clever companies build deep moats and how unscrupulous companies steal shareholders’ money. We have described the evolution of our investment philosophy in this film: <a href=\"/about-marcellus/\"> https://marcellus.in/about-marcellus/</a>\r\nThe past decade has taught us that building deep knowledge of high quality Indian firms is unusually rewarding because most analysts/investors operating in India are seldom able to focus long enough on a company to truly understand its moats. For obvious reasons, the management teams of these companies do NOT host conference calls where they spill the beans on the real moat of the company. As a result, if we can understand the same better than others, we should generate superior results over long periods of time. That being said, it is tough, grindingly hard work – not just because of the many hours spent reading but also because of the time &amp; effort involved in tracking down experts who can provide deep, original insights into the workings of these companies. The fact that a legend like Charlie Munger traversed a similar path and came out smiling spurs us on.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em><a href=\"https://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Marvel that is Munger: Learning from the Legend', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-the-marvel-that-is-munger-learning-from-the-legend', '', '', '2019-11-05 10:06:47', '2019-11-05 10:06:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1358', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1353, 1, '2019-06-26 04:39:46', '2019-06-26 04:39:46', '', 'new', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'new', '', '', '2019-06-26 04:39:46', '2019-06-26 04:39:46', '', 1352, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/new.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1359, 1, '2019-06-26 05:45:19', '2019-06-26 05:45:19', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>Thre Long and Short Story</h3>\r\n<div class=\"row \">\r\n						<div class=\"col-lg-12 col-md-12\">\r\n							 <h4>October 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/28th-oct-2018/\">28th Oct 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/21st-oct-2018/\">21st Oct 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/14th-oct-2018/\">14th Oct 2018</a></li></ul><h4>November 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/25th-nov-2018/\">25th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/18th-nov-2018/\">18th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/11th-nov-2018/\">11th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/4th-nov-2018/\">4th Nov 2018</a></li></ul><h4>December 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/30th-dec-2018/\">30th Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/23rd-dec-2018/\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/16-dec-2018/\">16 Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/9th-dec-2018/\">9th Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/2nd-dec-2018/\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li></ul><h4>January 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/20-jan-2019/\">20 Jan 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/13-jan-2019/\">13 Jan 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/6-jan-2019/\">6 Jan 2019</a></li></ul><h4>February 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/17th-feb-2019/\">17th Feb 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/548-2/\">10th Feb 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/3rd-feb-2019/\">3rd Feb 2019</a></li></ul><h4>March 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/31st-march-2019/\">31st March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/24-march-2019/\">24 March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/17-march-2019/\">17 March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/3rd-mar-2019/\">3rd Mar 2019</a></li></ul><h4>April 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/28th-april-2019/\">28th April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/21st-april-2019/\">21st April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/14th-april-2019/\">14th April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/7th-april-2019/\">7th April 2019</a></li></ul><h4>May 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/810-2/\">12th May 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/5th-may-2019/\">5th May 2019</a></li></ul><h4>June 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/23rd-june-2019/\">23rd June 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/16th-june-2019/\">16th June 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/6th-june-2019/\">6th June 2019</a></li></ul>						</div>\r\n					</div>', 'Newsletter Page', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'newsletter-page', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?page_id=1359', 0, 'page', '', 0),
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(1366, 1, '2019-04-01 07:23:47', '2019-04-01 07:23:47', '<strong>Buying the Consistent Compounders and holding them for long time periods becomes a difficult exercise as</strong><strong>investors are bombarded with newsflow and the apprehensions which come with newsflow. As a result,</strong><strong>investors tend to do injustice to the size of their allocation to the Consistent Compounders and the length </strong><strong>of the holding period of this portfolio. The solution is to have greater conviction on the sustainable </strong><strong>competitive advantages of these companies.</strong>\r\n\r\n“That’s been one of my mantras — focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”- Steve Jobs, BusinessWeek, May 25, 1998\r\n\r\nConsider the following factual statements – “Asian Paints has reported annualised earnings growth of 15% over the past 5 years, 20% over the past 10 years and 21% over the past 15 years. As a result, its annualised share price return has been 22% over the past five years, 34% over the past 10 years, and 30% over the past 15 years. In addition to this, the stock also delivered 1.5-2% annualised dividend yield. All that an investor had to do was hold on to Asian Paints in his portfolio and he would have compounded his wealth at a very healthy pace without much volatility.”\r\n\r\nThe set of statements above sound very simple, and one would presume that many investors who bought Asian Paints 10-15 years ago would have enjoyed this consistent and healthy compounding. Unsurprisingly therefore many clients ask us about why our simple philosophy of Consistent Compounders is not easy for someone to replicate.\r\n\r\nI have been covering Asian Paints an equity analyst for almost a decade now, and hence I have had the experience of going through the reams of newsflow which challenged the conviction of Asian Paints’ shareholders. Here is how it felt like, to a shareholder of Asian Paints -\r\n\r\n<strong>March 2007</strong> – Asian Paints’ share price has compounded at 29% CAGR over the last 5 years, and at 21% CAGR over the last 10 years. Its P/E multiple is at a 30% premium to its 10 year historical average, 20% premium to its 5 year historical average, and it is trading at twice the P/E multiple of its closest rival Berger Paints! Is Asian Paints overvalued?\r\n\r\n• <strong>April 2007</strong> - Sherwin Williams, world’s largest paint company has entered India. In a press article (click here) the CEO of Sherwin Williams India confidently says that by having access to modern technology and global range of products, the firm will grow by leaps and bounds in India. Is it time to sell Asian Paints?\r\n\r\n• <strong>2008</strong> – Promoters have decided to step down from their executive positions completely! P.M. Murty, who had recently retired from Asian Paints, has been brought back in as the CEO (click here). Is this the next example of an Indian company losing its competitive edge once it transitions from a promoter-led to professionals-led organisation?\r\n\r\n•<strong> 2008-09</strong> – Crude oil price touched $145 per barrel in July 2008, fell sharply to $35 by December 2008 and rose back up to $70 by July 2009. Asian Paints’ share price fell by ~35%, as the broader markets tumbled by ~60% in FY09. The firm reported an EBITDA margin of only 9% in the quarter ending December 2008, one of the lowest ever margins reported since the firm was listed in 1983! Should\r\nshareholders book profits?\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2011</strong> – FY11 earnings declined by 0.2% YoY. Price hike taken by Asian Paints over 2010 and 2011 has been as high as 25%! Will this back-fire due to price elasticity of demand and hence adverse impact on volume growth rates?\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2011-2012</strong> – Berger grew volumes at 18% in FY11 (vs 17% for Asian Paints) and by 15% in FY12 (vs 13% for Asian Paints). Berger is gaining market share from Asian Paints!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2012</strong> – All paint companies have announced aggressive capacity expansion plans which will more than double the industry’s capacity over the next 2-3 years. Most brokerages believe that this over-supply will result in competition intensifying as firms try to increase their capacity utilisation levels.\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – One of the promoter families (Dani family) have pledged their stake to buy more shares from the open market! There are rumours of disputes amongst the promoter families which can blow out of proportion over the next few months / years!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – Erstwhile market leader Shalimar is planning to make a comeback (click here)!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – Rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar from an exchange rate of Rs 44 / USD in Aug’11 to Rs 65 / USD in Sept’13! Asian Paints imports ~40% of its raw materials. Will its margins decline?\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2013-14</strong> - Asian Paints has bought Sleek in kitchenware (Mar’13) and Ess Ess in sanitaryware (Apr’14)! Two unrelated acquisitions! Is this the start of capital misallocation due to complacency? Remember how Asian Paints’ acquisition of the Berger International (17 countries) did not work out12 years ago?\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2014</strong> – Valuations! Look at the P/E multiple - It is at 45x, 50% higher than the last 5 years’ average and at 25% premium to Berger’s valuations!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2014</strong> - Akzo Nobel India has got a new management, over ~US$1bn of surplus capital, and the management is talking about very aggressive plans in their presentation to shareholders!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2016</strong> – Crude oil has fallen from $100 to $30. Chinese Renminbi has been devalued overnight. Although there is margin expansion for Asian Paints, the firm has cut its prices so significantly that revenue growth is down to single digits! This clearly suggests low pricing power – they can’t hold onto input cost tailwinds!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2016</strong> – Demonetisation will structurally affect the home building materials industry. New housing demand will fall. People who used to get their walls repainted only because they had black money lying in the drawers of their wardrobe, will elongate their repainting cycles!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – A sell side analyst told me that Asian Paints’ management has always been very arrogant (“look at how they laugh at analysts in the quarterly calls”). And now this analyst’s channel checks suggest that the dealer network has had enough of this arrogance. Channel relationships are weakening, leading to the recent underperformance in fundamentals.\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – GST – Paints is in the highest bracket of GST rates!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2017-18</strong> – Quarter after quarter, Kansai Nerolac’s management comes on TV and reports ~10-20% volume growth when Asian Paints reports only 0-10% volume growth; Kansai Nerolac’s product Soldier appears to be taking market share away from Asian Paints!\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – Jalaj Dani has resigned! Is there friction amongst promoters?\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – JSW (Sajjan Jindal group) is investing Rs 1,000 crores in paints to take on Asian Paints (click\r\nhere).\r\n\r\n<strong>• 2018</strong> – Crude oil price has spiked up to US$8 per barrel. Rupee has depreciated to Rs75 per USD. Asian Paints’ margins are down 200-400bps YoY and earnings growth is down to only 5% in FY18.\r\n\r\nWe can safely assume that the list mentioned above is neither exhaustive for Asian Paints (we didn’t add to it election outcomes, Indo-Pak tensions, Donald Trump, real estate downturn, etc!), nor is it limited to only Asian Paints. In fact, shareholders in every listed stock undergo a similar experience. Within our portfolio, Page Industries is undergoing such apprehensions currently, Dr. Lal Pathlabs was undergoing such apprehensions a year ago, HDFC Bank will undergo such apprehensions once Aditya Puri retires – there is no end to this list.\r\n\r\n99% of the companies in the listed universe do not have an exceptionally strong pricing power and are not institutionalised moated franchises. Such companies are susceptible to volatility in their fundamentals at frequent intervals due to such newsflow / events. Hence, it makes sense for a shareholder to decide entry and exit points in these 99% companies, based on some of these evolutionary or disruptive events happening in\r\nor around these companies.\r\n\r\nFor the balance 1% of the listed universe - the companies that we call ‘Consistent Compounders’ – the depth of the moat / competitive advantages / pricing power ensures that they manage to disconnect their fundamentals from any such headwinds.\r\n\r\nHowever, while investing in a portfolio of Consistent Compounders, investors tend to make two types of mistakes when faced with the string of newsflow highlighted above:\r\n\r\n<strong>1.Lack of concentration</strong>: Without digging deep into understanding the DNA of a firm, it becomes difficult to build conviction on whether a particular firm is a Consistent Compounder in the first place or not (see difference between Type B and Type C companies discussed in our recent blog on the subject). As a result, investors might not allocate enough to Consistent Compounders in their overall stock exposure, and hence although many portfolios will have an Asian Paints or an HDFC Bank as a holding, the beauty of a Consistent Compounder gets diluted by holdings in several other companies which are not Consistent Compounders.\r\n\r\n<strong>2. Short holding periods</strong>: As the intensity of newsflow strikes, apprehensions lead to an investor selling out of a Consistent Compounder too soon and hence don’t benefit from the power of compounding of a long enough holding period of such stocks.\r\n\r\nHence, while we aspire to give our clients 20-25% portfolio compounding with volatility in returns (of a 3 year or longer holding period) similar to that of a Government Bond, we should be aware that the journey will always contain reams of news flow and (mis)apprehensions which will keep testing our conviction on the portfolio companies. On most occasions, the best decision might be to keep your seat belts fastened and ‘do\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31st March 2019nothing’ with the portfolio.</strong>\r\n\r\nGiven the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn annually). We did not make any changes to our clients’ portfolio in March 2019.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1370 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"838\" height=\"433\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated </strong><strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an </strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '‘Doing nothing’ is perhaps the most difficult thing to do', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'doing-nothing-is-perhaps-the-most-difficult-thing-to-do', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:55:55', '2020-01-20 10:55:55', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1366', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(1363, 1, '2019-06-26 06:55:04', '2019-06-26 06:55:04', '', 'news 2-1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'news-2-1', '', '', '2019-06-26 06:55:04', '2019-06-26 06:55:04', '', 1362, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news-2-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1362, 1, '2019-03-01 07:03:40', '2019-03-01 07:03:40', '<strong>Many investors try to time their investments basis the perceived impact of external events on either the</strong><strong>broader stock market or on the share prices of specific firms. Analysing the last 30 years of stock market</strong><strong>data suggests that even if an investor were to perfectly time her investments in indices / good companies</strong><strong>each year, her returns would not be significantly higher than other investors who randomly time their</strong><strong>investments.</strong>\r\n\r\n\"I can\'t recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes\' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you\'d think somebody would have made billions by doing it.\" – Peter Lynch\r\n\r\nIn this months’ newsletter, we analyse this statement from Peter Lynch. Assume we have two investors - both of whom invest Rs. 1 crore annually in shares of Asian Paints from their annual savings. The first investor is Mr. Gifted. He is skilled at timing share prices. Each year, he buys Rs 1 crore worth of Asian Paints shares at the lowest price point of that year. The second investor is Mr. Mortal. He believes he cannot time share price movements, and hence he buys Rs 1 crore worth of Asian Paints shares on the 1st January of each year,regardless of the prevailing share price.\r\n\r\nMr. Gifted and Mr. Mortal start investing in Asian Paints from 2008 onwards.\r\n\r\nIn their first year of investing, Mr. Mortal invests Rs 1 crore in Asian Paints at Rs 113.6 per share on 1st January 2008. However, Mr. Gifted uses his skills, waits for Asian Paints’ share price to fall to its lowest level for the year - Rs 85.3 per share on 15th December 2008 - and hence invests his Rs 1 crore at a 25% lower share price vs Mr. Gifted, on their 2008 investment.\r\n\r\nSomething similar transpires in the second year of investing - Mr. Mortal invests Rs 1 crore in Asian Paints at Rs 88.8 per share on 1st January 2009. However, Mr. Gifted uses his skills, waits for Asian Paints’ share price to fall to its lowest level for the year - Rs 71.0 per share on 12th March 2009 - and hence invests his Rs 1 crore at a 20% lower share price vs Mr. Gifted, on their 2009 investment.\r\n\r\nThe two investors follow this process annually for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 years, on 31st December 2017, the two investors compare their portfolio values and XIRR (annualised rate of return).\r\n\r\nMr. Gifted’s portfolio is worth Rs 55.5 crores, an XIRR of 30.0%!\r\n\r\nMr. Mortal’s portfolio is worth Rs 47.3 crores, an XIRR of 27.2%!\r\n\r\nMr. Mortal’s portfolio value is only 15% lower than that of Mr. Gifted!! Whilst that is a meaningful premium, it is not as high a premium as many imagine market timers to command. The chart below shows the progression of their portfolio values during the 10 years investment period. Note: These portfolio values DO NOT include dividends – they are based only on share price movements. Including Dividends will increase the XIRR numbers by 1-2% for both investors.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1363 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"846\" height=\"434\" />\r\n\r\nMoreover, this was not the only 10-year period when Mr. Gifted failed to add much value via his skills of timing\r\nhis annual investments into Asian Paints share price. The table below shows that no matter when the two investors started this exercise, Mr. Mortal ended by being only 12% less wealthy than Mr. Gifted at the end of their 10 year investment.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1364 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"355\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Other variants of this analysis</strong>\r\n• If we consider investing in the Sensex (instead of Asian Paints) over any 10 year time period after 1991,\r\nthe outcome would not have been dissimilar. Mr. Mortal’s 10 year portfolio value would have been\r\n80-90% (average of 82%) of Mr. Gifted’s portfolio value.\r\n• If we increase the time frame of investment of each portfolio from 10 years to 20 years for any year\r\nafter 1991, the outcome would still be the same! Mr. Mortal’s 20 year portfolio value would have been\r\non average 82% of Mr. Gifted’s portfolio value if invested in Sensex, and an average of 84% if invested\r\nin Asian Paints.\r\n\r\n<strong>Why does this happen?</strong>\r\nThe simple reason why Mr. Mortal isn’t too far behind Mr. Gifted in all these portfolio iterations discussed above is that - Earnings drive 80-90% (if not higher) of the stock returns generated over the long run. As a result, provided the underlying asset (company or an index) delivers a modest or healthy earnings growth, it does not matter whether the entry point of one investor was 20% higher or lower than another investor.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications for markets in general and Consistent Compounders in particular</strong>\r\n\r\nMost investors have recurring cash flows to invest each year. However, too many people spend a lot of effort trying to be Mr. Gifted. For instance, several investors in India are trying to time their investment in the stock market in 2019, basis their expected outcome of events such as the general elections in India or tensions between India and Pakistan. However, not only is it difficult being Mr. Gifted in market timing, it is also not worth the effort.\r\n\r\nThe philosophy we follow for Consistent Compounders PMS aims at investing in companies whose earnings, believe, will compound consistently at 20-25% over long periods of time. Instead of worrying about howbest we can time the market volatility and entry valuations for these investments, we spend all our efforts trying to understand and build high conviction on their fundamental strengths which are likely to drive their earnings in future.\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 28th February 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nGiven the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1365 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news2-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"412\" />\r\n\r\nRegards\r\nTeam Marcellus\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated </strong><strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an </strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The\r\nrecipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Quantifying the futility of timing the market', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'quantifying-the-futility-of-timing-the-market', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:11', '2020-01-20 10:56:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1362', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(1851, 1, '2019-10-04 09:58:36', '2019-10-04 09:58:36', 'a:7:{s:8:\"location\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"param\";s:13:\"page_template\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:21:\"templates/product.php\";}}}s:8:\"position\";s:15:\"acf_after_title\";s:5:\"style\";s:7:\"default\";s:15:\"label_placement\";s:3:\"top\";s:21:\"instruction_placement\";s:5:\"label\";s:14:\"hide_on_screen\";a:6:{i:0;s:11:\"the_content\";i:1;s:10:\"discussion\";i:2;s:8:\"comments\";i:3;s:14:\"featured_image\";i:4;s:10:\"categories\";i:5;s:4:\"tags\";}s:11:\"description\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Invest With Us', 'invest-with-us', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'group_5d971741158d9', '', '', '2019-10-14 11:05:44', '2019-10-14 11:05:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field-group&#038;p=1851', 0, 'acf-field-group', '', 0),
(1370, 1, '2019-06-26 07:22:08', '2019-06-26 07:22:08', '', 'news3-1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'news3-1', '', '', '2019-06-26 07:22:08', '2019-06-26 07:22:08', '', 1366, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news3-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1371, 1, '2019-10-30 13:16:48', '2019-10-30 13:16:48', '<strong>Buying the Consistent Compounders and holding them for long time periods becomes a difficult exercise as </strong><b>investors are bombarded with news flow and the apprehensions which come with news flow. As a result,</b><strong>investors tend to do injustice to the size of their allocation to the Consistent Compounders and the length </strong><strong>of the holding period of this portfolio. The solution is to have greater conviction on the sustainable </strong><strong>competitive advantages of these companies.</strong>\n\n“That’s been one of my mantras — focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.”- Steve Jobs, Business Week, May 25, 1998\n\nConsider the following factual statements – “Asian Paints has reported annualised earnings growth of 15% over the past 5 years, 20% over the past 10 years and 21% over the past 15 years. As a result, its annualised share price return has been 22% over the past five years, 34% over the past 10 years, and 30% over the past 15 years. In addition to this, the stock also delivered 1.5-2% annualised dividend yield. All that an investor had to do was hold on to Asian Paints in his portfolio and he would have compounded his wealth at a very healthy pace without much volatility.”\n\nThe set of statements above sound very simple, and one would presume that many investors who bought Asian Paints 10-15 years ago would have enjoyed this consistent and healthy compounding. Unsurprisingly therefore many clients ask us about why our simple <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/why-india-is-blessed-with-consistent-compounders/\">philosophy of Consistent Compounders</a> is not easy for someone to replicate.\n\nI have been covering Asian Paints an equity analyst for almost a decade now, and hence I have had the experience of going through the reams of news flow which challenged the conviction of Asian Paints’ shareholders. Here is how it felt like, to a shareholder of Asian Paints -\n\n<strong>March 2007</strong> – Asian Paints’ share price has compounded at 29% CAGR over the last 5 years, and at 21% CAGR over the last 10 years. Its P/E multiple is at a 30% premium to its 10 year historical average, 20% premium to its 5 year historical average, and it is trading at twice the P/E multiple of its closest rival Berger Paints! Is Asian Paints overvalued?\n\n• <strong>April 2007</strong> - Sherwin Williams, world’s largest paint company has entered India. In a press article (click here) the CEO of Sherwin Williams India confidently says that by having access to modern technology and global range of products, the firm will grow by leaps and bounds in India. Is it time to sell Asian Paints?\n\n• <strong>2008</strong> – Promoters have decided to step down from their executive positions completely! P.M. Murty, who had recently retired from Asian Paints, has been brought back in as the CEO (click here). Is this the next example of an Indian company losing its competitive edge once it transitions from a promoter-led to professionals-led organisation?\n\n•<strong> 2008-09</strong> – Crude oil price touched $145 per barrel in July 2008, fell sharply to $35 by December 2008 and rose back up to $70 by July 2009. Asian Paints’ share price fell by ~35%, as the broader markets tumbled by ~60% in FY09. The firm reported an EBITDA margin of only 9% in the quarter ending December 2008, one of the lowest ever margins reported since the firm was listed in 1983! Should\nshareholders book profits?\n\n<strong>• 2011</strong> – FY11 earnings declined by 0.2% YoY. Price hike taken by Asian Paints over 2010 and 2011 has been as high as 25%! Will this back-fire due to price elasticity of demand and hence adverse impact on volume growth rates?\n\n<strong>• 2011-2012</strong> – Berger grew volumes at 18% in FY11 (vs 17% for Asian Paints) and by 15% in FY12 (vs 13% for Asian Paints). Berger is gaining market share from Asian Paints!\n\n<strong>• 2012</strong> – All paint companies have announced aggressive capacity expansion plans which will more than double the industry’s capacity over the next 2-3 years. Most brokerages believe that this over-supply will result in competition intensifying as firms try to increase their capacity utilisation levels.\n\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – One of the promoter families (Dani family) have pledged their stake to buy more shares from the open market! There are rumours of disputes amongst the promoter families which can blow out of proportion over the next few months / years!\n\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – Erstwhile market leader Shalimar is planning to make a comeback (click here)!\n\n<strong>• 2013</strong> – Rupee has depreciated against the US Dollar from an exchange rate of Rs 44 / USD in Aug’11 to Rs 65 / USD in Sept’13! Asian Paints imports ~40% of its raw materials. Will its margins decline?\n\n<strong>• 2013-14</strong> - Asian Paints has bought Sleek in kitchenware (Mar’13) and Ess in sanitary ware (Apr’14)! Two unrelated acquisitions! Is this the start of capital misallocation due to complacency? Remember how Asian Paints’ acquisition of the Berger International (17 countries) did not work out 12 years ago?\n\n<strong>• 2014</strong> – Valuations! Look at the P/E multiple - It is at 45x, 50% higher than the last 5 years’ average and at 25% premium to Berger’s valuations!\n\n<strong>• 2014</strong> - Akzo Nobel India has got a new management, over ~US$1bn of surplus capital, and the management is talking about very aggressive plans in their presentation to shareholders!\n\n<strong>• 2016</strong> – Crude oil has fallen from $100 to $30. Chinese Renminbi has been devalued overnight. Although there is margin expansion for Asian Paints, the firm has cut its prices so significantly that revenue growth is down to single digits! This clearly suggests low pricing power – they can’t hold onto input cost tailwinds!\n\n<strong>• 2016</strong> – Demonetisation will structurally affect the home building materials industry. New housing demand will fall. People who used to get their walls repainted only because they had black money lying in the drawers of their wardrobe, will elongate their repainting cycles!\n\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – A sell side analyst told me that Asian Paints’ management has always been very arrogant (“look at how they laugh at analysts in the quarterly calls”). And now this analyst’s channel checks suggest that the dealer network has had enough of this arrogance. Channel relationships are weakening, leading to the recent underperformance in fundamentals.\n\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – GST – Paints is in the highest bracket of GST rates!\n\n<strong>• 2017-18</strong> – Quarter after quarter, Kansai Nerolac’s management comes on TV and reports ~10-20% volume growth when Asian Paints reports only 0-10% volume growth; Kansai Nerolac’s product Soldier appears to be taking market share away from Asian Paints!\n\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – Jalaj Dani has resigned! Is there friction amongst promoters?\n\n<strong>• 2017</strong> – JSW (Sajjan Jindal group) is investing Rs 1,000 crores in paints to take on Asian Paints (click\nhere).\n\n<strong>• 2018</strong> – Crude oil price has spiked up to US$8 per barrel. Rupee has depreciated to Rs75 per USD. Asian Paints’ margins are down 200-400bps YoY and earnings growth is down to only 5% in FY18.\n\nWe can safely assume that the list mentioned above is neither exhaustive for Asian Paints (we didn’t add to it election outcomes, Indo-Pak tensions, Donald Trump, real estate downturn, etc!), nor is it limited to only Asian Paints. In fact, shareholders in every listed stock undergo a similar experience. Within our portfolio, Page Industries is undergoing such apprehensions currently, Dr. Lal Path labs was undergoing such apprehensions a year ago, HDFC Bank will undergo such apprehensions once Aditya Puri retires – there is no end to this list.\n\n99% of the companies in the listed universe do not have an exceptionally strong pricing power and are not institutionalised moated franchises. Such companies are susceptible to volatility in their fundamentals at frequent intervals due to such news flow / events. Hence, it makes sense for a shareholder to decide entry and exit points in these 99% companies, based on some of these evolutionary or disruptive events happening in\nor around these companies.\n\nFor the balance 1% of the listed universe - the companies that we call ‘Consistent Compounders’ – the depth of the moat / competitive advantages / pricing power ensures that they manage to disconnect their fundamentals from any such headwinds.\n\nHowever, while investing in a portfolio of Consistent Compounders, investors tend to make two types of mistakes when faced with the string of newsflow highlighted above:\n\n<strong>1.Lack of concentration</strong>: Without digging deep into understanding the DNA of a firm, it becomes difficult to build conviction on whether a particular firm is a Consistent Compounder in the first place or not (see difference between Type B and Type C companies discussed in our recent blog on the subject). As a result, investors might not allocate enough to Consistent Compounders in their overall stock exposure, and hence although many portfolios will have an Asian Paints or an HDFC Bank as a holding, the beauty of a Consistent Compounder gets diluted by holdings in several other companies which are not Consistent Compounders.\n\n<strong>2. Short holding periods</strong>: As the intensity of news flow strikes, apprehensions lead to an investor selling out of a Consistent Compounder too soon and hence don’t benefit from the power of compounding of a long enough holding period of such stocks.\n\nHence, while we aspire to give our clients 20-25% portfolio compounding with volatility in returns (of a 3 year or longer holding period) similar to that of a Government Bond, we should be aware that the journey will always contain reams of news flow and (mis)apprehensions which will keep testing our conviction on the portfolio companies. On most occasions, the best decision might be to keep your seat belts fastened and ‘do\n\n<strong>Performance update – Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – as on 31st March 2019 nothing’ with the portfolio.</strong>\n\nGiven the longevity of fundamentals of our portfolio companies, we don’t expect the portfolio to churn more than one stock per year on an average (i.e., no more than 5-10% expected average churn annually). We did not make any changes to our clients’ portfolio in March 2019.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1370 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"838\" height=\"433\" />\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated </strong><strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an </strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', '‘Doing nothing’ is perhaps the most difficult thing to do', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1366-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 13:16:48', '2019-10-30 13:16:48', '', 1366, 'http://marcellus.in/1366-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1372, 1, '2019-06-26 07:25:15', '2019-06-26 07:25:15', '', 'Resources', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'resources-2', '', '', '2019-06-26 07:25:15', '2019-06-26 07:25:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=1372', 4, 'nav_menu_item', '', 0),
(1373, 1, '2019-06-26 08:51:05', '2019-06-26 08:51:05', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 08:51:05', '2019-06-26 08:51:05', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1374, 1, '2019-06-26 08:51:49', '2019-06-26 08:51:49', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletter Page', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1359-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 08:51:49', '2019-06-26 08:51:49', '', 1359, 'http://marcellus.in/1359-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1376, 1, '2019-06-26 08:57:12', '2019-06-26 08:57:12', 'Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.\r\nThey are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.\r\n…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They’re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the “sober curious,” people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.\r\nKin’s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called “High Rhode.” It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics.\r\n…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is “Murder Your Thirst.” Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, “This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.”\r\nThe idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they’re downing simple H2O.\r\nThe original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you’re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the ‘sober curious’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1329-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 08:57:12', '2019-06-26 08:57:12', '', 1329, 'http://marcellus.in/1329-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1377, 1, '2019-06-26 09:01:28', '2019-06-26 09:01:28', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>Thre Long and Short Story</h3>\r\n\r\n<h4>January 2019</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_6Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_13Jan2019.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">13th Jan 2019</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>December 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_2Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_9Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">9th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_16Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">16th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_23Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_30Dec2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">30th Dec 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>November 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_25Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">25th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_18Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">18th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_11Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_4Nov2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">4th Nov 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h4>October 2018</h4>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_28Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">28th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_21Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">21st Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n 	<li><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/demo/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/3-longs-3-shorts_best-reads_14Oct2018.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14th Oct 2018</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n', 'Newsletter Page', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1359-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:01:28', '2019-06-26 09:01:28', '', 1359, 'http://marcellus.in/1359-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1378, 1, '2019-05-01 09:34:28', '2019-05-01 09:34:28', 'The holy grail of investing in stock markets is to buy companies which can sustain a healthy ROCE with growing capital employed, thereby delivering consistent earnings growth over long time periods. In this newsletter, we divide the Nifty50’s constituents into three buckets – A (no moats), B (shallow moats), and C (deep moats) based on their historical ROCE and revenue growth. Unlike the standard definition of riskreward framework (i.e. increasing returns come with rising risk), the Indian stock market offers an arbitrage. Bucket C companies not only delivered healthier returns vs the broader market, the risk involved was also much lower, similar to that of a Government bond!\r\n\r\n“And the things best to know are first principles and causes. For through them and from them all other things may be known but not they through the things covered by them… But these things, the most universal, are perhaps the most difficult things for men to grasp, for they are farthest removed from the senses.” – Aristotle (384-322 B.C.E.), Metaphysics\r\n\r\nFirst principles thinking in stock market investing would suggest the following:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>All investors (not speculators) in the stock market intend to make a healthy return on their investment\r\nover long periods of time</li>\r\n 	<li>The simplest way to understand what drives share price performance of a company is the following\r\nmathematical equation: Price = (Price / Earnings) x Earnings</li>\r\n 	<li>Out of the two components of share price movement defined in the equation above, over the long\r\nterm, while the earnings of a stock can compound, the P/E multiple does NOT compound. For instance,\r\nyou can find companies whose earnings grew from 10 units to 100, and then to 1000 and 10,000 over\r\na long time period. However, there are no stocks which saw their P/E multiple growing from 10x to\r\n100x, and then to 1000x and 10,000x</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nA combination of the three bullets highlighted above would suggest that long term share price performance\r\nof any stock is determined by its ability to compound earnings over the long term.\r\n\r\nThat brings us to the next question – how can one measure the ability of a company to compound its earnings over the long term? Using first principles, the most common way for a firm to compound its earnings over the long term is to first deliver healthy earnings on its capital employed (i.e. a healthy ROCE) and then redeploy part of these earnings back onto the balance sheet and hence grow the capital employed. Ongoing sustenance of a healthy ROCE on a growing base of capital employed then delivers sustainable growth in earnings over time.\r\n\r\nSearching for evidence of such an engine of consistent earnings growth in the long-term historical financials of a firm, would therefore mean, looking at a combination of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE of a firm.\r\n\r\nIn the Indian context, where the country’s nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth + inflation) has been higher than 10% consistently, and where cost of capital in the country has been around 15% consistently, the bare minimum that an investor would want from the management of his investee company is to beat these two benchmarks as the firm’s revenue growth and ROCE respectively. Sounds easy, but let’s see how many firms manage to deliver this.\r\n\r\n<strong>Analysing the constituents of Nifty50, as they existed in 2008</strong>\r\n\r\nSensex and Nifty50 are the most commonly used benchmarks in Indian stock market. So, let’s divide the Nifty50 constituents of a decade ago - 2008 - into three buckets based on their revenue growth and ROCE delivered over FY08-18\r\n\r\nCompanies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in less than\r\nor equal to 3 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies which do not possess any moats, and hence\r\nare not able to sustain healthy ROCEs.\r\n\r\n<strong>Bucket-B (B for Buffett)</strong>: Companies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in more than\r\n3 financial years, but less than or equal to 7 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies with shallow\r\nmoats that get challenged every now and then by aggressive competition.\r\n\r\n<strong>Bucket-C (C for Compounders)</strong>: Companies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in more\r\nthan 7 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies which perhaps possess deep moats that are difficult\r\nto break into.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1380 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"721\" height=\"519\" />\r\n\r\nNext, let’s create equal weighted portfolios of stocks in each of the three buckets in 2008 and analyse the riskreward of a three-year holding period return of these portfolios. We use monthly rolling 3 year return data points i.e. (1st Apr 2008 to 31st Mar 2011), (1st May 2008 to 30th Apr 2011), (1st June 2008 to 31st May 2011) and so on. The exhibit below shows the outcome of this exercise. Alongside the three buckets, the exhibit below also includes data points for Nifty50 (i.e. the index as it has evolved over the past decade).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1381 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"478\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Analysing the constituents of Nifty50, as they exist in 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nEven if one were to repeat the exercise highlighted above for today’s Nifty50 constituents, using their revenue growth and ROCE reported over FY08-18, and then look at the performance of today’s Nifty50 constituents over the past decade, the outcome is very similar to what we saw with 2008 Nifty50 constituents.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1382 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"549\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1383 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"480\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nFollowing are the key conclusions emerging from the analysis above:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Unlike the standard definition of risk-reward framework (i.e. increasing returns come with rising risk),\r\nIndian stock market offers an arbitrage. Over the past decade, if you chose companies which delivered\r\n&gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in a reasonably consistent manner, not only did you get a much\r\nhealthier return vs the broader market, this return came with a much lower risk as well – similar to\r\nthat of a Government Bond!</li>\r\n 	<li>Over the past decade, a portfolio of companies from Bucket C made redundant, the top-right quadrant\r\nof Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 4. In other words, there would have been several investment philosophies over\r\nthe past decade which aimed at delivering &gt;20% CAGR over a 3-year investment horizon by taking a\r\nhigh risk in the form of spotting a ‘unicorn’ / multi-bagger amongst small caps, or by timing events\r\n(general elections, macro-economic parameter), timing cycles, valuations etc. Any such investment\r\nphilosophy which involved higher risk in exchange for and 20-25% CAGR in returns, was worse off,\r\ncompared to companies in Bucket C which delivered lower risk for the similar or higher returns.</li>\r\n 	<li>Regardless of when you did this exercise over the past 25 years, the Indian stock market has always\r\noffered this arbitrage of generating low-risk and high-returns.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – Performance update</strong>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS has a coverage universe of just over a couple of dozen stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research process then involves, understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe delivered a great historical track record. Based on this understanding, we construct a portfolio of 10-15 companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS is shown in the chart below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1384 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"809\" height=\"397\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"/resources/\"> https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Risk-reward arbitrage of investing in quality', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'risk-reward-arbitrage-of-investing-in-quality', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:21', '2020-01-20 10:56:21', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1378', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(1379, 1, '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3>Thre Long and Short Story</h3>\r\n<div class=\"row \">\r\n						<div class=\"col-lg-12 col-md-12\">\r\n							 <h4>October 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/28th-oct-2018/\">28th Oct 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/21st-oct-2018/\">21st Oct 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/14th-oct-2018/\">14th Oct 2018</a></li></ul><h4>November 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/25th-nov-2018/\">25th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/18th-nov-2018/\">18th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/11th-nov-2018/\">11th Nov 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/4th-nov-2018/\">4th Nov 2018</a></li></ul><h4>December 2018</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/30th-dec-2018/\">30th Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/23rd-dec-2018/\">23rd Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/16-dec-2018/\">16 Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/9th-dec-2018/\">9th Dec 2018</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/2nd-dec-2018/\">2nd Dec 2018</a></li></ul><h4>January 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/20-jan-2019/\">20 Jan 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/13-jan-2019/\">13 Jan 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/6-jan-2019/\">6 Jan 2019</a></li></ul><h4>February 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/17th-feb-2019/\">17th Feb 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/548-2/\">10th Feb 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/3rd-feb-2019/\">3rd Feb 2019</a></li></ul><h4>March 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/31st-march-2019/\">31st March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/24-march-2019/\">24 March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/17-march-2019/\">17 March 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/3rd-mar-2019/\">3rd Mar 2019</a></li></ul><h4>April 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/28th-april-2019/\">28th April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/21st-april-2019/\">21st April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/14th-april-2019/\">14th April 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/7th-april-2019/\">7th April 2019</a></li></ul><h4>May 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/810-2/\">12th May 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/5th-may-2019/\">5th May 2019</a></li></ul><h4>June 2019</h4><ul class=\"post-title\"><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/23rd-june-2019/\">23rd June 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/16th-june-2019/\">16th June 2019</a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" href=\"http://marcellus.in/6th-june-2019/\">6th June 2019</a></li></ul>						</div>\r\n					</div>', 'Newsletter Page', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1359-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '2019-06-26 09:13:06', '', 1359, 'http://marcellus.in/1359-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1384, 1, '2019-06-26 09:31:44', '2019-06-26 09:31:44', '', 'news4-5', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'news4-5', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:31:44', '2019-06-26 09:31:44', '', 1378, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-5.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1385, 1, '2019-06-26 09:36:33', '2019-06-26 09:36:33', 'The holy grail of investing in stock markets is to buy companies which can sustain a healthy ROCE with growing capital employed, thereby delivering consistent earnings growth over long time periods. In this newsletter, we divide the Nifty50’s constituents into three buckets – A (no moats), B (shallow moats), and C (deep moats) based on their historical ROCE and revenue growth. Unlike the standard definition of riskreward framework (i.e. increasing returns come with rising risk), the Indian stock market offers an arbitrage. Bucket C companies not only delivered healthier returns vs the broader market, the risk involved was also much lower, similar to that of a Government bond!\n\n“And the things best to know are first principles and causes. For through them and from them all other things may be known but not they through the things covered by them… But these things, the most universal, are perhaps the most difficult things for men to grasp, for they are farthest removed from the senses.” – Aristotle (384-322 B.C.E.), Metaphysics\n\nFirst principles thinking in stock market investing would suggest the following:\n<ul>\n 	<li>All investors (not speculators) in the stock market intend to make a healthy return on their investment\nover long periods of time</li>\n 	<li>The simplest way to understand what drives share price performance of a company is the following\nmathematical equation: Price = (Price / Earnings) x Earnings</li>\n 	<li>Out of the two components of share price movement defined in the equation above, over the long\nterm, while the earnings of a stock can compound, the P/E multiple does NOT compound. For instance,\nyou can find companies whose earnings grew from 10 units to 100, and then to 1000 and 10,000 over\na long time period. However, there are no stocks which saw their P/E multiple growing from 10x to\n100x, and then to 1000x and 10,000x</li>\n</ul>\nA combination of the three bullets highlighted above would suggest that long term share price performance\nof any stock is determined by its ability to compound earnings over the long term.\n\nThat brings us to the next question – how can one measure the ability of a company to compound its earnings over the long term? Using first principles, the most common way for a firm to compound its earnings over the long term is to first deliver healthy earnings on its capital employed (i.e. a healthy ROCE) and then redeploy part of these earnings back onto the balance sheet and hence grow the capital employed. Ongoing sustenance of a healthy ROCE on a growing base of capital employed then delivers sustainable growth in earnings over time.\n\nSearching for evidence of such an engine of consistent earnings growth in the long-term historical financials of a firm, would therefore mean, looking at a combination of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE of a firm.\n\nIn the Indian context, where the country’s nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth + inflation) has been higher than 10% consistently, and where cost of capital in the country has been around 15% consistently, the bare minimum that an investor would want from the management of his investee company is to beat these two benchmarks as the firm’s revenue growth and ROCE respectively. Sounds easy, but let’s see how many firms manage to deliver this.\n\n<strong>Analysing the constituents of Nifty50, as they existed in 2008</strong>\n\nSensex and Nifty50 are the most commonly used benchmarks in Indian stock market. So, let’s divide the Nifty50 constituents of a decade ago - 2008 - into three buckets based on their revenue growth and ROCE delivered over FY08-18\n\nCompanies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in less than\nor equal to 3 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies which do not possess any moats, and hence\nare not able to sustain healthy ROCEs.\n\n<strong>Bucket-B (B for Buffett)</strong>: Companies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in more than\n3 financial years, but less than or equal to 7 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies with shallow\nmoats that get challenged every now and then by aggressive competition.\n\n<strong>Bucket-C (C for Compounders)</strong>: Companies who have delivered &gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in more\nthan 7 financial years over FY08-18. These are companies which perhaps possess deep moats that are difficult\nto break into.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1380 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"721\" height=\"519\" />\n\nNext, let’s create equal weighted portfolios of stocks in each of the three buckets in 2008 and analyse the riskreward of a three-year holding period return of these portfolios. We use monthly rolling 3 year return data points i.e. (1st Apr 2008 to 31st Mar 2011), (1st May 2008 to 30th Apr 2011), (1st June 2008 to 31st May 2011) and so on. The exhibit below shows the outcome of this exercise. Alongside the three buckets, the exhibit below also includes data points for Nifty50 (i.e. the index as it has evolved over the past decade).\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1381 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"844\" height=\"478\" />\n\n<strong>Analysing the constituents of Nifty50, as they exist in 2019</strong>\n\nEven if one were to repeat the exercise highlighted above for today’s Nifty50 constituents, using their revenue growth and ROCE reported over FY08-18, and then look at the performance of today’s Nifty50 constituents over the past decade, the outcome is very similar to what we saw with 2008 Nifty50 constituents.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1382 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"549\" />\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1383 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"839\" height=\"480\" />\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nFollowing are the key conclusions emerging from the analysis above:\n<ul>\n 	<li>Unlike the standard definition of risk-reward framework (i.e. increasing returns come with rising risk),\nIndian stock market offers an arbitrage. Over the past decade, if you chose companies which delivered\n&gt;10% revenue growth and &gt;15% ROCE in a reasonably consistent manner, not only did you get a much\nhealthier return vs the broader market, this return came with a much lower risk as well – similar to\nthat of a Government Bond!</li>\n 	<li>Over the past decade, a portfolio of companies from Bucket C made redundant, the top-right quadrant\nof Exhibit 2 and Exhibit 4. In other words, there would have been several investment philosophies over\nthe past decade which aimed at delivering &gt;20% CAGR over a 3-year investment horizon by taking a\nhigh risk in the form of spotting a ‘unicorn’ / multi-bagger amongst small caps, or by timing events\n(general elections, macro-economic parameter), timing cycles, valuations etc. Any such investment\nphilosophy which involved higher risk in exchange for and 20-25% CAGR in returns, was worse off,\ncompared to companies in Bucket C which delivered lower risk for the similar or higher returns.</li>\n 	<li>Regardless of when you did this exercise over the past 25 years, the Indian stock market has always\noffered this arbitrage of generating low-risk and high-returns.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – Performance update</strong>\n\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS has a coverage universe of just over a couple of dozen stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research process then involves, understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe delivered a great historical track record. Based on this understanding, we construct a portfolio of 10-15 companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS is shown in the chart below.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1384 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news4-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"809\" height=\"397\" />\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Risk-reward arbitrage of investing in quality', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1378-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-26 09:36:33', '2019-06-26 09:36:33', '', 1378, 'http://marcellus.in/1378-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1386, 1, '2019-06-01 10:08:31', '2019-06-01 10:08:31', 'In FY19, our portfolio companies reported 18% revenue growth, 16% earnings growth and 37% ROCE. Whilst this was a healthy performance at an overall level, the external environment facing our companies deteriorated towards the end of FY19 due to tight credit conditions accentuated by the challenges in the NBFC sector (and hence challenges faced by the distribution channel in getting working capital finance). With earnings contributing to 80% of the share price movement of our portfolio companies over FY15-19, we continue to be comfortable with the current valuations of our portfolio companies, given the sustenance of their competitive advantages (and hence healthy ROCEs) over the long term in future. Last month we also added Kotak Mahindra Bank as a new stock to the portfolios of our clients, taking our exposure to the Financial Services sector towards 25% of the portfolio.\r\n\r\nEarnings growth is the biggest driver of share prices over the longer term. This is best depicted by the chart shown below. Whilst in the short term, a gap might open-up between earnings trajectory and share prices, this gap always vanishes over the longer term.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1387 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news-5-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"841\" height=\"370\" />\r\n\r\nAgainst this backdrop, it is worth analyzing the recently reported performance of our portfolio companies’ fundamentals in FY19, as summarized below (on a weighted average basis, where weights equate to stockwise allocations in our model portfolio).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1388 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/news5-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"772\" height=\"359\" />\r\n\r\nRevenue and earnings growth rates: Our portfolio companies reported revenue growth of 18% YoY in FY19, supported by an average volume growth of 12% YoY. This growth reflected market share gains for almost all firms in our portfolio, despite a difficult macro-economic environment for middle class consumption.\r\n\r\nThe first half of FY19 saw some improvement in the demand conditions with trade and supply channels recovering from the past disruptions caused by demonetisation and the implementation of GST. However, Q4 FY19 was particularly weak with revenue growth of 15% YoY (supported by volume growth of 9% YoY) being lower than the historical long-term average of 20-25% CAGR reported by our portfolio companies. Our reading is that the weakness in Q4 FY19 arose from:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Tight credit conditions accentuated by the challenges in the NBFC sector (and hence challenges faced\r\nby the distribution channel in getting working capital finance)</li>\r\n 	<li>Rising unemployment</li>\r\n 	<li>Low rural and urban income growth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nFor instance, Page Industries, a firm which has reported volume growth above 10% YoY in most quarters historically, reported only 1% YoY growth in Q4 FY19. This included volume decline on a YoY basis for the multibrand outlets (like hosiery stores – which rely substantially on working capital finance), whilst volumes grew at a relatively healthy pace for the exclusive brand outlets (Jockey branded stores) and large format stores (like Lifestyle and Pantaloons). Some of our portfolio companies in the paints industry, footwear industry, diagnostic lab industry etc. reported healthy volume growth rates of more than 10% YoY in Q4 FY19, driven by market share gains.\r\n\r\nWe expect the weakness in revenue growth related to the issues faced by the distribution channel to be temporary in nature. Hence revenue growth rates of our portfolio companies should see a recovery as FY20 progresses.\r\n\r\nMoving on from topline growth towards bottomline growth, earnings growth of our portfolio companies was at 16% YoY in FY19 and only 9% YoY in Q4 FY19. Margins in Q4 FY19 were adversely affected by higher raw material prices for firms in the paints, adhesives and footwear industries, compared to Q4 FY18. As highlighted in our April 2019 Newsletter, fluctuations in crude oil prices and currencies has always caused volatility in quarterly earnings for a firm like Asian Paints as it takes a few months for them to pass on the adverse impact / benefits of raw material prices to its customers by means of price hikes / cuts. Since we remain convinced about the strength of the competitive advantages (and hence about the pricing power) possessed by our portfolio companies, we are not worried about one or two quarter compression in margins and hence earnings growth of these firms.\r\n\r\n<strong>Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)</strong>:\r\n\r\nThe most sustainable way for a firm to grow its earnings over the longer term is to deliver ROCE substantially higher than the cost of capital (around 15% in India), then be able to plough this free cash flow back into the business to grow the capital employed, sustain its high ROCE and thereby grow its earnings. As shown in the exhibit 2 above, our portfolio companies have consistently delivered ROCE of 35-37% historically whilst re-deploying 50-60% of their operating cash flows back into the business.\r\n\r\n<strong>Share price movements and P/E multiples</strong>\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in exhibit 2 (see encircled figures), for Nifty50 Index, earnings growth has contributed to only one-fifth of the index return over FY15-19 (i.e. 2% earnings CAGR vs 8% index value CAGR), and hence the bulk of the index return has come from P/E multiple expansion. On the contrary, for our portfolio companies, earnings growth has contributed to four-fifth (i.e. 80%) of the share price returns, with P/E expansion being only a small contributor to the portfolio’s performance. In other words, our portfolio companies have delivered returns in sync with their earnings growth over FY15-19. Moreover, since the P/E multiples do NOT adequately capture the longevity of a business, we continue to be comfortable  with the current valuations of our portfolio companies, given the sustenance of their competitive advantages (and hence healthy ROCEs) over the long term in future.\r\n\r\n<strong>Changes made to our portfolio</strong>\r\n\r\nLast month we added Kotak Mahindra Bank as a new stock to the portfolios of our clients. Kotak has demonstrated highly consistent and healthy historical track record – a pre-requisite for inclusion in our Consistent Compounders Philosophy. Kotak’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 27% over FY09 – FY19. Consolidated earnings growth CAGR during the same period (FY09-19) was at 27%. Kotak’s loan book grew by greater than 15% YoY in 9 out of the last 11 years.\r\n\r\nEven more interestingly, Kotak’s net NPA ratio has been at 0.87% during FY09-FY19 (one of the lowest in the industry). Over the last five years, while other banks have struggled with asset quality issues in their corporate loan book, Kotak’s corporate loan book has grown at more than 20% CAGR in a challenging environment.\r\n\r\nKotak’s key strengths include: (a) CASA (current account savings account) contributes to 53% of its total funds (up from 30% in FY13) – this is the stickiest source of funding which is related to trust built with its retail customers, and most importantly it helps in understanding the customers better (HDFC Bank’s CASA contributes to 40% of its total funds); (b) prudence in managing risk, which is reflected in its NPA numbers; (c) anticipating market cycles well ahead of peers; and (d) capital allocation discipline. A strong retail franchise, exceptional management and healthy capitalization (Tier1 capital of 17.6%), place Kotak Mahindra Bank in a sweet spot to capitalize on growth opportunities and gain market share in future, especially as other banks and NBFCs struggle with poor asset quality and difficulties in raising low cost funds.\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – Performance update</strong>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS has a coverage universe of over a couple of dozen stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research process involves understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a portfolio of 10-15 companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS is shown in the chart below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1389 \" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/NEWS-5-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"394\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/ </a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek\r\npayment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated</strong>\r\n<strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an </strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Why are we underperforming the Nifty?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'why-are-we-underperforming-the-nifty', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:50', '2020-01-20 10:56:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1386', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(1390, 1, '2019-11-01 06:32:16', '2019-11-01 06:32:16', '<em>Published on:27 June, 2019</em>\n<strong>Charlie Munger, as much as Warren Buffett, has lessons for those who invest in Indian stocks. The central tenet of our 12 stock portfolio from a 25 stock investment universe is inspired by Munger’s approach to developing deep knowledge, building mental models and staying within a tight circle of competence. </strong>\n\n<strong>[Marcellus is recruiting a Compliance Officer and a Quant Analyst. Click here for more details: </strong><strong><a href=\"/jobs/\"> http://marcellus.in/jobs/</a>\n<em>“Carnegie was always proud that he took very little salary. Rockefeller and Vanderbilt were the same. It was a common culture in a different era. All of these people thought of themselves as the founder…If you’re highly conscientious and you hate to disappoint, you will feel the pressure to live up to your incentive fee.” – <strong>Charlie Munger </strong>(Berkshire AGM, 2003) </em></strong>\n\n<strong>The key insights of a giant intellect</strong>\nA uniquely original and astonishingly capable mind, learned across multiple disciplines without taking a single course in university on business or finance, Charlie Munger’s life provides rich learnings for those who seek wisdom. <strong>At the core of Munger’s wisdom is the realisation that thinking does not come naturally to the vast majority of people in the stockmarket i.e. most of us do NOT think most of the time</strong>; we parrot/imitate and respond reflexively to what we read, see and hear. Therefore, if we can set up systems &amp; processes and learn tricks which teach us to think, in fact make us think, we will gradually become better than most people around us. This central insight from Munger is extremely relevant for investors in a market like India where herd instinct is even stronger than it is in the developed markets and where accounting/governance inadequacies characterise even prominent companies.\n\nBasis our reading of three superb books – ‘Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger’ (2003) by Peter Bevelin, ‘Charlie Munger: the Complete Investor’ (2015) by Tren Griffin, and ‘Poor Charlie’s Almanack’ (2005)  - we provide our summary of what we are trying to learn from this titan:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>Continuously learning, thinking, building mental models &amp; deep knowledge</strong>: In order to benefit from this model of focused learning, we need to be patient and we need to realise that there will always be people who will be going faster than us. However, if we persist, we will benefit from what is called the second half of the chessboard – the knowledge compounding heaven where the real action takes place (see <a href=\"https://medium.com/@brian.leiberman1/the-second-half-of-the-chessboard-understanding-exponential-leaps-forward-1ee0832a10c3\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://medium.com/@brian.leiberman1/the-second-half-of-the-chessboard-understanding-exponential-leaps-forward-1ee0832a10c3</a>\n. In Munger’s words, <em>“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”</em></li>\n</ol>\nThere’s another way to think about what Munger is saying. If we gradually build a repository of knowledge and accumulated experience of real world situations, we will gradually become more able to correlate problems we are coming across with the knowledge we have already accumulated. In the words of the psychologist-cum-economist Herbert Simon, <em>“The situation has provided a cue; this cue has given the expert access to information stored in memory, and the information provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition.”</em>\n\n<b>2. Understanding our circle of competence and staying within it:</b> A decade ago, Munger said in a BBC interview, <em>“We have to deal with things that we’re capable of understanding.”</em> At Marcellus have repeatedly been asked why don’t we invest in stocks which don’t have high Return on Capital and strong cashflows. After all, the thinking goes, great investors are all about finding decent companies at bargain prices. However, since we can’t second guess how an ugly frog will become a handsome prince, we have focused on our core competence of investing in great franchises with strong moats &amp; clean management. To quote Munger, <em>“It’s obvious that if a company generates high returns on capital and reinvests at high returns, it will do well. But this wouldn’t sell books, so there’s a lot of twaddle and fuzzy concepts that have been introduced that don’t add much.”</em>\n\nMunger also makes the broader point that <em>“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant”</em> and <em>“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.” </em>Munger’s friend Li Lu has restated this nicely: <em>“The true insights a person can get in life are still very limited, so correct decision making must necessarily be confined to your “circle of competence”. A “competence” that has no defined borders cannot be called a true competence.”</em>\n\n<strong>3. Focus on one or two variables:</strong> Both in the businesses he invested in and in the way he gradually built a vast body of knowledge, Munger learned to focus on the one or two variables which drive success. In his words <em>“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.” </em>\n\nAs Farnam Street said in a blog honouring Munger, <em>“When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.” </em>(See <a href=\"https://fs.blog/2017/02/charlie-munger-wisdom/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://fs.blog/2017/02/charlie-munger-wisdom/</a>\n\nWarren Buffett has articulated this point of view from the perspective of an investor: <em>“You only have to be right on a very, very few things in your lifetime as long as you never make any big mistakes…An investor needs to do very few things right as long as he or she avoids big mistakes.”</em>\n\n<strong>4. Focus on outstanding businesses, NOT on cheap stocks:</strong> Until he started collaborating with Munger, Buffett was focused on using Ben Graham’s cigar-butt style of ‘value investing’. Munger’s influence played a major role in Buffett gradually abandoning this style through the 1970s and 1980s and moving towards investing in outstanding franchises like Capital Cities/ABC and Coca Cola. Munger deserves enormous credit for first saying:\n\n<em>“Ben Graham had blind spots. He had too low an appreciation of the fact some businesses were worth paying big premiums for.”</em> and then saying:\n<em>“Ben Graham had a lot to learn as an investor. His ideas on how to value companies were all shaped by how the Great Crash and Depression almost destroyed him, and he was always a little afraid of what the market can do. It left him with an aftermath of fear for the rest of his life, and all his methods were designed to keep that at bay. I think Ben Graham wasn’t nearly as good an investor as Warren Buffett is or even as good as I am. Buying those cheap, cigar-butt stocks [companies with limited potential growth selling at a fraction of what they would be worth in a takeover or liquidation] was a snare and a delusion…” </em>\n\nInterestingly, this resulted in an investment style for Munger (heavily influenced by the great Phil Fisher) which works nicely for us in India and has given us a portfolio of moated, relatively clean, well run companies like Asian Paints, Marico, HDFC Bank and Page Industries. In Munger’s words, <em>“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”</em>\n\n<strong>5. Carefully choose the people you work with:</strong> We are fortunate insofar as hundreds of people send us their CVs . However, Munger says one has to be selective because people who do unwise things in one setting usually proceed to do unwise things in other setting as well. In Munger’s words, <em>“…it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”</em>\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nOur team’s coverage universe of Indian stocks is only 25. Our Consistent Compounders Portfolio has only 12 stocks in it. We have five analysts in our team and each is required to dissect only 4-5 stocks. Why? Because we don’t think we can realistically ask our analysts to build deep knowledge on more than this number of companies. By ‘deep knowledge’ we mean: (a) familiarity with the last 15 years of annual reports of each of these companies; (b) deep understanding of every single major capital allocation decision made by these companies over the last 15 years; (c) a deeper understanding of the competitive advantages – or the lack thereof – of these companies than anyone else in the Indian stockmarket has; and (d) full understanding of accounting/governance tricks being used to flatter profits &amp; networth. The two variables we obsessively focus on are a company’s sustainable competitive advantages and its accounting quality. All our effort goes in training and teaching ourselves to understand how clever companies build deep moats and how unscrupulous companies steal shareholders’ money. We have described the evolution of our investment philosophy in this film: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/about-marcellus/\"> http://marcellus.in/about-marcellus/</a>\nThe past decade has taught us that building deep knowledge of high quality Indian firms is unusually rewarding because most analysts/investors operating in India are seldom able to focus long enough on a company to truly understand its moats. For obvious reasons, the management teams of these companies do NOT host conference calls where they spill the beans on the real moat of the company. As a result, if we can understand the same better than others, we should generate superior results over long periods of time. That being said, it is tough, grindingly hard work – not just because of the many hours spent reading but also because of the time &amp; effort involved in tracking down experts who can provide deep, original insights into the workings of these companies. The fact that a legend like Charlie Munger traversed a similar path and came out smiling spurs us on.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Marvel that is Munger: Learning from the Legend', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1358-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:32:16', '2019-11-01 06:32:16', '', 1358, 'http://marcellus.in/1358-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1391, 1, '2019-06-27 04:49:27', '2019-06-27 04:49:27', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletter', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-27 04:49:27', '2019-06-27 04:49:27', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1392, 1, '2019-06-27 04:50:05', '2019-06-27 04:50:05', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-27 04:50:05', '2019-06-27 04:50:05', '', 131, 'http://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1393, 1, '2019-06-28 03:29:51', '2019-06-28 03:29:51', 'The Peter principle states that workers get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence. This week’s Bartleby column in The Economist, revisits this principle to show why promotions (often leading up to a managerial role from being a functional specialist) may not necessarily be the best thing to happen to you from a career progression perspective. Nor is it ideal from an employer’s perspective to reward every top performer with a move up into a supervisory role without considering the relevance of the said individual’s skills for the new job. Of course with investments to upskill and training on behalf of the employee and the employer, it is very much possible for people to grow into larger roles but the article points to the norm that is prevalent in today’s organisations, which does create a sub-optimal outcome for both the individual and the organisation.\r\n<em>“…If you are good at your job, you rise up the career ladder. Eventually, there will be a job you are not good at and at that point your career will stall. The logical corollary is that any senior staff members who have been in their job for an extended period are incompetent.</em>\r\n<em>There is another problem with chasing the promotion chimera. In a recent </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8ce37b620c&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>article</em></a><em> for VoxEU, the records of almost 40,000 salespeople across 131 firms were studied by Alan Benson, Danielle Li and Kelly Shue. They found that companies have a strong tendency to promote the best sales people. Convincing people to buy goods and services is a useful skill, requiring charisma and persistence. But, as the authors point out, these are not the same capabilities as the strategic planning and administrative competence needed to lead a sales team.</em>\r\n<em>The research then looked at what happened after these super-salespeople were promoted. Their previous sales performance was actually a negative indicator of managerial success. The sales growth of workers assigned to the star sellers was 7.5 percentage points lower than for those whose managers were previously weaker performers.</em>\r\n<em>Scott Adams, the cartoonist, described this problem in his book, the “The Dilbert Principle”. In his world, the least competent people get promoted because these are the people you don’t want to do the actual work. It is foolish to promote the best salesperson or computer programmer to a management role, since the company will then be deprived of unique skills. That’s how the workers in the Dilbert cartoon strip end up being managed by the clueless “pointy-haired boss”.</em>\r\n<em>People get promoted until they reach a level when they stop enjoying their jobs. At this point, it is not just their competence that is affected; it is their happiness as well. The trick to avoiding this curse is to stick to what you like doing. If you enjoy teaching, don’t be a headmaster or college principal. If you like writing articles and columns, editing other people’s work may not give you the same degree of satisfaction (let alone conducting career reviews).”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The promotion curse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1314-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:29:51', '2019-06-28 03:29:51', '', 1314, 'http://marcellus.in/1314-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1394, 1, '2019-06-28 03:30:39', '2019-06-28 03:30:39', 'Whilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1311-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:30:39', '2019-06-28 03:30:39', '', 1311, 'http://marcellus.in/1311-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1395, 1, '2019-06-28 03:32:32', '2019-06-28 03:32:32', 'In our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1309-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:32:32', '2019-06-28 03:32:32', '', 1309, 'http://marcellus.in/1309-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1396, 1, '2019-06-28 03:32:51', '2019-06-28 03:32:51', 'In order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Scotland is on the front line in the fight against “cash deserts”', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1307-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:32:51', '2019-06-28 03:32:51', '', 1307, 'http://marcellus.in/1307-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1397, 1, '2019-06-28 03:33:09', '2019-06-28 03:33:09', 'In this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1305-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:33:09', '2019-06-28 03:33:09', '', 1305, 'http://marcellus.in/1305-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1398, 1, '2019-06-28 03:33:26', '2019-06-28 03:33:26', 'The car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart.\r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe.\r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1030-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:33:26', '2019-06-28 03:33:26', '', 1030, 'http://marcellus.in/1030-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1399, 1, '2019-06-28 03:33:41', '2019-06-28 03:33:41', 'In light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '984-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 03:33:41', '2019-06-28 03:33:41', '', 984, 'http://marcellus.in/984-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1400, 1, '2019-06-28 04:30:49', '2019-06-28 04:30:49', '<em>It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star –  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.\r\nManaging basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.\r\n…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy.\r\n….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”\r\nMr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”\r\nMr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect C<strong>apital, manages contracts worth $</strong>1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.\r\n…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1327-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:30:49', '2019-06-28 04:30:49', '', 1327, 'http://marcellus.in/1327-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1401, 1, '2019-06-28 04:42:58', '2019-06-28 04:42:58', '<em>Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\">Edsel Ford Fong</a> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\">Hall of Shame</a> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\">FAQ</a> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.\r\nTo loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”\r\nOne morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)\r\n….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.\r\nIn a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”\r\n“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1325-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:42:58', '2019-06-28 04:42:58', '', 1325, 'http://marcellus.in/1325-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1402, 1, '2019-06-28 04:43:24', '2019-06-28 04:43:24', '<em>In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, “is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.\r\nHaving said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.\r\nTo follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, “At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.\r\nPeople who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story?\r\nThe experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: <strong>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</strong>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Does reading fiction make us better people?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1323-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:43:24', '2019-06-28 04:43:24', '', 1323, 'http://marcellus.in/1323-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1403, 1, '2019-06-28 04:43:48', '2019-06-28 04:43:48', 'Most psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '976-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:43:48', '2019-06-28 04:43:48', '', 976, 'http://marcellus.in/976-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1404, 1, '2019-06-28 04:44:05', '2019-06-28 04:44:05', 'In India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show.\r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '959-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:44:05', '2019-06-28 04:44:05', '', 959, 'http://marcellus.in/959-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2432, 1, '2019-11-13 11:41:30', '2019-11-13 11:41:30', 'The author – inspite of running an AI service provider for corporates – says that AI is being overhyped and overpromoted. He believes that:\r\n\r\n<em>“We have much faster computers, thanks to Moore’s law, but the underlying algorithms are mostly identical to those that powered machines 40 years ago. Instead, we have creatively rebranded those algorithms. Good old-fashioned “data” has suddenly become “big”. And 1970s-vintage neural networks have started to provide the mysterious phenomenon of “deep learning”.”</em>\r\n\r\nHe highlights that celebrated AI success stories like IBM’s Watson and Google’s Deep Mind have performed disastrously in the real world. That begs the question: what is AI good for? Chishti’s answer, <em>“What it has always been good for: the identification of patterns in complex data. Medical image anomaly detection, hydrocarbon detection, consumer behavioural prediction and fraud detection have all benefited from advances in computational capacity. These all share two things: large volumes of well-structured input data and well-defined endpoints.”</em>', 'Do not believe the hype about artificial intelligence', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '961-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:41:30', '2019-11-13 11:41:30', '', 961, 'https://marcellus.in/961-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2433, 1, '2019-11-13 11:43:43', '2019-11-13 11:43:43', 'In India it is a common refrain that the Congress can’t get its act together whilst the BJP displays its political muscle on a daily basis. However, the challenges of traditional left of centre political parties do not seem to be confined to India alone as these articles in the FT and NYT show.\r\n\r\nIn September, the Social Democrats in Germany were drubbed not only by Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats but also by Greens and Far Right parties. Since 1998 the Social Democrats have lost half of their voter base even as the Germany economy has continued to boom.\r\n\r\nWhy is this happening? <em>“Many of the party’s core voters have seen their lives turned upside down by sweeping economic and social change, from globalisation and automation to mass migration. The SPD, once so confident in the righteousness of its cause, has struggled to formulate a response. “The SPD has a leadership problem and a narrative problem,” says Andrea Römmele, a professor at Berlin’s Hertie School of Governance. “The party has no story to tell to the voters, and a story is what voters need.””</em>\r\n\r\nKevin Kuhnert, the leader of the SPD’s Youth Wing says, <em>“For the first time in many years we have a young generation where many sense that they will not automatically be able to live better than their parents. People on low salaries have seen their wages stagnate, or even fall. They can afford less than they could at the end of the 1990s. I don’t need to have a big macroeconomic debate with them: they know they do not belong to society’s winners.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT’s says that the rise of nationalism (bred by the rise of insecurity) is common across America and Europe. The underlying driver seems to be: <em>“Today’s nationalist revival is in reaction to the failure of global, not nation-based, initiatives that sailed over the heads of ordinary citizens. The reaction has been most potent on the political right, but there is certainly a basis for a liberal or social-democratic nationalism. If anything, the decline of liberal and social-democratic parties is a result at least in part of their inability to distinguish what is legitimate and justifiable in nationalism from what is small-minded, bigoted and contrary to the national interest it claims to uphold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Two articles which should be read together: (1) How social democracy lost its way: a report from German; and (2) What the Left misses about Nationalism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '959-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:43:43', '2019-11-13 11:43:43', '', 959, 'https://marcellus.in/959-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1406, 1, '2019-06-28 04:44:39', '2019-06-28 04:44:39', '<em>New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. “Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. “In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?… Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. “Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown.\r\nIn sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.\r\nSix years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing – or Just Wasting Time?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1321-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:44:39', '2019-06-28 04:44:39', '', 1321, 'http://marcellus.in/1321-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1407, 1, '2019-06-28 04:47:22', '2019-06-28 04:47:22', '<em>As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.\r\nGraham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”\r\nGraham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: “Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.\r\nAnalytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1319-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:47:22', '2019-06-28 04:47:22', '', 1319, 'http://marcellus.in/1319-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1408, 1, '2019-06-28 04:53:17', '2019-06-28 04:53:17', 'Elena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1339-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:53:17', '2019-06-28 04:53:17', '', 1339, 'http://marcellus.in/1339-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1409, 1, '2019-06-28 04:53:38', '2019-06-28 04:53:38', 'This conversation between two of India’s best historians who are currently in circulation – William Dalrymple and Manu Pillai – exposes the cardboard cutout history that is routinely taught in India’s schools and which infect the popular narrative of how India has evolved.\r\nPillai points out that whilst Shivaji (and his war with the Mughals) is the main prism through which most of the view the Deccan in the Middle Ages, the history of the Deccan is far richer than that:<em>“The Deccan witnessed fascinating events, presided over by even more fascinating people. We have Persian immigrants transform into kings; African warlords marrying their daughters to Sultans; begums who refused purdah (provoking their sons to blot them out of paintings); and a constant religious exchange, whether it was at court where Hindu poets sang of the Mahabharata to Sultans, or on the ground where the saint Eknath could produce a ‘Hindu-Turk Samvad’.”</em>\r\nIn fact, as Pillai explains in his book “Rebel Sultans”, the Deccan can boast of a star cast of heroes beyond Shivaji and the Mughals: <em>“Ibrahim Adil Shah II of Bijapur ranks high on my list. This late-16th, early-17th century prince was an extraordinary figure. He could get, given the times in which he lived, cruel where matters of power were concerned…To some today, this sort of action can be taken out of its historical context and used to paint people as “good” or “bad” when the fact is that across the board, till a few centuries ago, violence and power went hand in hand. Ibrahim, however, was supremely interesting. His patronage of art (including a luckless European painter and the miniaturist Farrukh Beg), his love for music, his interest in literature, his contribution to architecture, all combined in a long reign to establish him as one of the finest historical figures to have shaped early-modern India.</em>\r\n<em>The other figure has to be Malik Ambar. Here was a man born in Africa, snatched as a boy and sold into slavery, who arrives in India and rises to near-princely rank through sheer determination and not a little shrewdness.</em>\r\n<em>As the Mughals begin their conquest of the Deccan in the early 17th century, all that stands in their way for decades is this man, and at least two generations of emperors were reduced to barking insults in frustration. Jehangir, especially, hated him to the extent that he commissioned a painting showing himself shooting an arrow at Ambar’s impaled head — something he never succeeded in doing in real life, of course.”</em>\r\nPillai also does his bit to dispel the notion that the Deccan is where Islam and Hinduism clashed to the detriment of one or the other. Religion, Pillai explains, was used then – as it is now – as a way of canvassing support: <em>“Naipaul is not the first to succumb to the romanticised idea of Vijayanagar as a Hindu bulwark against Islamic aggression. It was certainly founded by Hindu brothers, whose ideology of state was set in Sanskritic terms. But from the very start, we find that it was not driven by religion. Bukka, one of the empire’s founders, for instance, was hardly a man who despised Muslims — why, then, would he invite the Sultan of Delhi to ally with him and destroy the Bahmani state? In inscriptions, we find that ‘Turks’ are only despised as much as other Hindu kingdoms are, and Muslims are not at the receiving end of any pronounced, unusual hostility.</em>\r\n<em>Besides, Vijayanagar wasn’t sunk in a sea of religious resentments from the past — it was a land of bold innovations that looked enthusiastically to the future. One of the most remarkable things about this empire and its rulers is also that, from the late 1340s, we have them use a particularly revealing title. They called themselves Hinduraya Suratrana, Sultans among Hindu Kings. This is fascinating because on the one hand this appears to be the first time that Indian sovereigns use the word ‘Hindu’ consciously in projecting their self-image. But while they do so, they also lay claim to the title of ‘Sultan’. At once, they were both — Hindu Sultans alongside Muslim Sultans.</em>\r\n<em>Bijapur, Golconda and Ahmadnagar too are interesting from the ‘Hindu-Muslim’ question. They too formally projected themselves as ideal Muslim rulers. The Sultans were out to “destroy infidels”, while Vijayanagar wanted to rid the world of “Turks” and “mlechchas”. But real life was not over-blown rhetoric — we find Hindus at the feet of Muslim saints, and Muslims adopting Hindu customs. Vijayanagar actively sought Muslim cavalrymen for its forces, just as the Sultans needed Brahmins and Marathas to sustain their power.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'If Akbar and Ibrahim II had met, they would have liked each other: Manu S Pillai', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1337-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:53:38', '2019-06-28 04:53:38', '', 1337, 'http://marcellus.in/1337-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1410, 1, '2019-06-28 04:54:53', '2019-06-28 04:54:53', 'IT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the specifi</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the fir</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>', 'Why Doctors Hate Their Computers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1335-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:54:53', '2019-06-28 04:54:53', '', 1335, 'http://marcellus.in/1335-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1411, 1, '2019-06-28 04:56:57', '2019-06-28 04:56:57', '<em>It was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade – consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,”\r\n“…The World Bank’s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows.\r\nDuring the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055.\r\nRoy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India’s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy.\r\nThe risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime.\r\n…And it’s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. “India’s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,” it had warned.\r\n…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world’s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world’s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India’s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest.\r\nA growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: “A time will come when that will stop.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi’s top guys', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1285-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:56:57', '2019-06-28 04:56:57', '', 1285, 'http://marcellus.in/1285-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1412, 1, '2019-06-28 04:59:25', '2019-06-28 04:59:25', '<em>This unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.\r\nAs Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….\r\nAround 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1283-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:59:25', '2019-06-28 04:59:25', '', 1283, 'http://marcellus.in/1283-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1413, 1, '2019-06-28 04:59:43', '2019-06-28 04:59:43', '<em>Millions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is “…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.” The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: “Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Truth about Dentistry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1280-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 04:59:43', '2019-06-28 04:59:43', '', 1280, 'http://marcellus.in/1280-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1414, 1, '2019-06-28 05:00:04', '2019-06-28 05:00:04', '<em>Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: “…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? “…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.\r\nHere’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how “rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that “Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.”\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: “The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1277-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:00:04', '2019-06-28 05:00:04', '', 1277, 'http://marcellus.in/1277-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1415, 1, '2019-06-28 05:00:34', '2019-06-28 05:00:34', '<em>Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.\r\nThe Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.\r\nIn Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1300-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:00:34', '2019-06-28 05:00:34', '', 1300, 'http://marcellus.in/1300-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1416, 1, '2019-06-28 05:01:01', '2019-06-28 05:01:01', '<em>This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. “Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. “Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Political good girls are losing the battle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1298-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:01:01', '2019-06-28 05:01:01', '', 1298, 'http://marcellus.in/1298-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1427, 1, '2019-06-28 05:24:42', '2019-06-28 05:24:42', 'A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n\r\n“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.\r\n\r\nIn the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.\r\n\r\nThere is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.\r\n\r\nThe result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.\r\n\r\nThe neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1296-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:24:42', '2019-06-28 05:24:42', '', 1296, 'http://marcellus.in/1296-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1417, 1, '2019-06-28 05:01:27', '2019-06-28 05:01:27', '<em>A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1296-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:01:27', '2019-06-28 05:01:27', '', 1296, 'http://marcellus.in/1296-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1418, 1, '2019-06-28 05:01:49', '2019-06-28 05:01:49', '<em>Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. ““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. “The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. “Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. “Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1294-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:01:49', '2019-06-28 05:01:49', '', 1294, 'http://marcellus.in/1294-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1419, 1, '2019-06-28 05:02:08', '2019-06-28 05:02:08', '<em>Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> “The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.”” So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? “Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”\r\n–    </em><em><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> “Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> “Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.” The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'You played yourself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1292-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:02:08', '2019-06-28 05:02:08', '', 1292, 'http://marcellus.in/1292-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1420, 1, '2019-06-28 05:02:29', '2019-06-28 05:02:29', 'IT systems in large enterprises often cause as much anguish among the users whose lives these very systems were created to simplify in the first place. In this piece from the New Yorker, Atul Gawande a surgeon and better known as a best-selling <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Books-Atul-Gawande/s?rh=n%3A976389031%2Cp_27%3AAtul+Gawande\">author</a> applies this situation particularly to the world of doctors where the advent of healthcare systems haven’t really helped them be significantly more effective nor productive enough to have a better work-life balance but instead diverted much of their working hours away from facing patients to facing computer screens logging information. He points out that at the same time, there is no denying the fact that systems can help doctors improve the diagnosis by for example providing better access to case histories, etc. Dr Gawande concludes by saying much like everywhere else, it is a matter of a fine balance between systems and human interaction that makes service delivery most effective. As we build out our systems to  make Marcellus a scalable organisation, this comes as a timely reminder.\r\n<em>“A 2016 study found that physicians spent about two hours doing computer work for every hour spent face to face with a patient—whatever the brand</em>\r\n<em>of medical software. In the examination room, physicians devoted half of their patient time facing the screen to do electronic tasks. And these tasks were spilling over after hours. The University of Wisconsin found that the average workday for its family physicians had grown to eleven and a half hours. The result has been epidemic levels of burnout among clinicians. Forty per cent screen positive for depression, and seven per cent report suicidal thinking—almost double the rate of the general working population.</em>\r\n<em>Something’s gone terribly wrong. Doctors are among the most technology-avid people in society; computerization has simpli</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ed tasks in many industries. Yet somehow we’ve reached a point where people in the medical profession actively, viscerally, volubly hate their computers.</em>\r\n<em>…Before, Sadoughi almost never had to bring tasks home to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nish. Now she routinely spends an hour or more on the computer after her children have gone to bed. She gave me an example. Each patient has a “problem list” with his or her active medical issues, such as difficult-to-control diabetes, early signs of dementia, a chronic heart-valve problem. The list is intended to tell clinicians at a glance what they have to consider when seeing a patient. Sadoughi used to keep the list carefully updated—deleting problems that were no longer relevant, adding details about ones that were. But now everyone across the organization can modify the list, and, she said, “it has become utterly useless.” Three people will list the same diagnosis three different ways. Or an orthopedist will list the same generic symptom for every patient (“pain in leg”), which is sufficient for billing purposes but not useful to colleagues who need to know the speci</em><em>􀈩</em><em>c diagnosis (e.g., “osteoarthritis in the right knee”). Or someone will add “anemia” to the problem list but not have the expertise to record the relevant details; Sadoughi needs to know that it’s “anemia due to iron de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>ciency, last colonoscopy 2017.” The problem lists have become a hoarder’s stash.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re long, they’re de</em><em>􀈩</em><em>cient, they’re redundant,” she said. “Now I come to look at a patient, I pull up the problem list, and it means nothing. I have to go read through their past notes, especially if I’m doing urgent care,” where she’s usually meeting someone for the </em><em>􀈩</em><em>rst time. And piecing together what’s important about the patient’s history is at times actually harder than when she had to leaf through a sheaf of paper records. Doctors’ handwritten notes were brief and to the point. With computers, however, the shortcut is to paste in whole blocks of information—an entire two-page imaging report, say—rather than selecting the relevant details. The next doctor must hunt through several pages to </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nd what really matters. Multiply that by twenty-some patients a day, and you can see Sadoughi’s problem.</em>\r\n<em>…The I.B.M. software engineer Frederick Brooks, in his classic 1975 book, “The Mythical Man-Month,” called this </em><em>􀈩</em><em>nal state the Tar Pit. There is, he said, a predictable progression from a cool program (built, say, by a few nerds for a few of their nerd friends) to a bigger, less cool program product (to deliver the same function to more people, with different computer systems and different levels of ability) to an even bigger, very uncool program system (for even more people, with many different needs in many kinds of work).</em>\r\n<em>As a program adapts and serves more people and more functions, it naturally requires tighter regulation. Software systems govern how we interact as groups, and that makes them unavoidably bureaucratic in nature. There will always be those who want to maintain the system and those who want to push the system’s boundaries. Conservatives and liberals emerge.</em>\r\n<em>The Tar Pit has trapped a great many of us: clinicians, scientists, police, salespeople —all of us hunched over our screens, spending more time dealing with constraints on how we do our jobs and less time simply doing them. And the only choice we seem to have is to adapt to this reality or become crushed by it.</em>\r\n<em>….Medicine is a complex adaptive system: it is made up of many interconnected, multilayered parts, and it is meant to evolve with time and changing conditions. Software is not. It is complex, but it does not adapt. That is the heart of the problem for its users, us humans. Adaptation requires two things: mutation and selection. Mutation produces variety and deviation; selection kills off the least functional mutations. Our old, craft-based, pre-computer system of professional practice—in medicine and in other fi</em><em>elds—was all mutation and no selection. There was plenty of room for individuals to do things differently from the norm; everyone could be an innovator. But there was no real mechanism for weeding out bad ideas or practices.</em>\r\n<em>Computerization, by contrast, is all selection and no mutation. Leaders install a monolith, and the smallest changes require a committee decision, plus weeks of testing and debugging to make sure that </em><em>fi</em><em>xing the daylight-saving-time problem, say, doesn’t wreck some other, distant part of the system.</em>\r\n<em>Why can’t our work systems be like our smartphones—</em><em>􀈫</em><em>exible, easy, customizable? The answer is that the two systems have different purposes. Consumer technology is all about letting me be me. Technology for complex enterprises is about helping groups do what the members cannot easily do by themselves—work in coördination. Our individual activities have to mesh with everyone else’s. What we want and don’t have, however, is a system that accommodates both mutation and selection.</em>\r\n<em>Many fear that the advance of technology will replace us all with robots. Yet in </em><em>􀈩</em><em>elds like health care the more imminent prospect is that it will make us all behave like robots. And the people we serve need something more than either robots or robot-like people can provide. They need human enterprises that can adapt to change.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Why Doctors Hate Their Computers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1335-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:02:29', '2019-06-28 05:02:29', '', 1335, 'http://marcellus.in/1335-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1421, 1, '2019-06-28 05:15:59', '2019-06-28 05:15:59', '<em>The iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. “Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”\r\n….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?\r\nSocial media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.\r\nIn 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.\r\nOne BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”\r\n…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice<strong>. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1290-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:15:59', '2019-06-28 05:15:59', '', 1290, 'http://marcellus.in/1290-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1422, 1, '2019-06-28 05:16:39', '2019-06-28 05:16:39', 'In his latest blog, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea writes about <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3d046a827&amp;e=5648501957\">“The Tussle Between What we “Should do” &amp; What we “Must do</a>”” blaming in part to societal expectations for “what we should do”. In this Indian Express OpEd, Pratap Bhanu Mehta extends the debate to Indian students’ educational choices and how they are driven or rather constrained by the same social valuations. At a time when millions of students are making their choices for higher educations, this piece from the vice chancellor of Ashoka University, an institution that is bringing some change in the way Indians think about higher education is indeed worth pondering over.</em>\r\n<em>“The larger social structures constrict educational possibilities and the way in which we imagine the relationship between education and life. As another generation of school leavers enters college or the job market, we will console them with familiar platitudes. Do not place undue emphasis on marks. Choose an educational pathway that you like, rather than conform to social pressure, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>These are fine sentiments and make a good deal of sense. But even as we say these things, we know there is something hollow about them in our social context. The familiar tensions between the practical demands of navigating a pathway in a modern economy, and education for its own sake, will play out within each one of us.</em>\r\n<em>…broader structures of inequality and unfreedom actually constrain educational choice. The freedom we urge upon our students runs into a world of necessity and constraint; and the promise that education will be the pathway to equality exposes them to a new kind of inequality…</em>\r\n<em>…the inequality challenge is not just about access. It is about modes of valuation that are inherent in the way we think of the relationship between education and society. The philosopher, Thomas Nagel, once wrote: “When racial and sexual (and you might add, caste) injustice have been reduced, we shall still be left with the great injustice of the smart and the dumb, who are so differently rewarded for comparable effort.” It must be pointed out that “smart” and “dumb” are categories that are themselves the products of forms of social valuation. But to deny the fact that in our cultures there is a deep tension between the cult of individual achievement and the equal valuation of persons, would be to deny reality. You might argue that to acknowledge some particular achievement (good marks) is not necessarily to devalue persons who do not display that achievement. But the truth is that it is hard to sustain that distinction in practice. In aristocratic societies, trappings of wealth and social valuation go hand in hand. In our societies, manifest ability and social valuation go hand in hand; recognising accomplishment shades over into valuing persons differently.</em>\r\n<em>But this mode of valuation is compounded by two other features of modern society. The first is meritocracy, the idea that your achievement is due to individual effort. Again, this is an understandable association. But its corollary is that failure is also an individual failing. In an aristocratic society you might be subordinate, but the psychic story is that this is just the nature of things. In our societies, the individual is devalued or blamed for the lack of achievement, there is a different kind of stress associated with falling behind. Valuing individual achievement is a great spur to ambition, but it is also a psychological disaster: In modern constructions of failure, you have no one to blame but yourself.</em>\r\n<em>The second myth of modern society is this: You might not be able to do some things well, but there are other things you might do well. This is good advice. But the plausibility of this advice depends again upon modes of social valuation. In societies where the income and status gaps between different professions are inordinately high, the line between choosing your own thing and being condemned to social oblivion can be pretty thin. In societies where the social cost of not making it to the top five or 10 per cent are so high, it is also more difficult to make the argument in good faith to “do your own thing.” The life penalties associated with those choices can be much higher.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Dear school leavers, don’t believe all the stories that will be told to you about the world you face', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1287-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:16:39', '2019-06-28 05:16:39', '', 1287, 'http://marcellus.in/1287-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1423, 1, '2019-06-28 05:19:47', '2019-06-28 05:19:47', 'Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.<em>\r\n“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.\r\n…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…\r\n…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…\r\nRestraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.\r\nThere were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.\r\nSay that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1236-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:19:47', '2019-06-28 05:19:47', '', 1236, 'http://marcellus.in/1236-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1424, 1, '2019-06-28 05:22:33', '2019-06-28 05:22:33', 'From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? “<em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”\r\n</em>Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.<em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”\r\n</em>Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.<em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”\r\n</em>Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1234-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:22:33', '2019-06-28 05:22:33', '', 1234, 'http://marcellus.in/1234-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1425, 1, '2019-06-28 05:22:53', '2019-06-28 05:22:53', 'Last week, we wrote about the disruptions caused by the millenials’ changing attitude towards real estate ownership – you can read that <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3aec280b2c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. This piece talks about how it is no longer a done thing for kids in America to get a driving license, what that is doing to automobile sales and how the auto makers are reacting to this.<em>“J.D. Power estimates that Gen Zers will purchase about 120,000 fewer new vehicles this year compared with millennials in 2004, when they were the new generation of drivers—or 488,198 vehicles versus 607,329 then…. In 1983, the first year Mr. Sivak began analyzing the ages of drivers based on licensing data, the percentage of 16-year-olds with driver’s licenses was 46%. By 2008, it had fallen to less than a third and in 2014, it hit a low point of 24.5%….Even among those in their early 20s, fewer are getting their licenses. About 80% of 20- to 24-year-olds were licensed drivers in 2017, compared with 92% in 1983….”</em> These are fairly steep drops which don’t augur well for the auto industry from a long-term perspective. What’s driving this change?<em>\r\n“…teenagers are reaching their driving age at a time when most have access to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft to shuttle them around town. At the same time, social media and video chat let them hang out with friends without actually leaving the house.\r\nWhen they reach their 20s, more are moving to big cities with mass transit, where owning a car is neither necessary nor practical…\r\n…Generation Zers grew up during the financial crisis and tend to be more budget-conscious, according to researchers who study generational trends. In addition, many face substantial student-loan payments, making them more cautious about big-ticket purchases. Total student-loan debt <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e2c45f6a51&amp;e=5648501957\">has soared</a> to $1.5 trillion, surpassing Americans’ credit-card and car-loan bills.\r\nThe process for teenagers is also getting more expensive. State budget cuts have meant that many public schools no longer offer free driver’s training and a private course can cost upward of a thousand dollars, say driver’s-ed professionals”\r\n</em>So how are the auto makers reacting. Seems like Detroit has indeed in someways contributed to delaying car ownership by raising new vehicle prices.<em>\r\n“Cost is increasingly a challenge. The average price paid for a new vehicle was $32,544 in 2018, up from $25,490 a decade ago, according to J.D. Power. The average monthly payment on a new-car loan reached $535 a month last year, or more than 10% of the median household income, a level most Americans can’t afford, said Cox Automotive.\r\n….On top of the shortage of small cars, auto makers are also packing more technology into vehicles, contributing to rising prices. The new extras also make cars more expensive to repair, helping to drive up car-insurance costs, another deterrent for many teens and 20-somethings”\r\n</em>Detroit seems to be betting contrary to the Japanese and Koreans.<em>\r\n“…Detroit has jettisoned many of their lower-priced compact and subcompact cars like the Ford Fiesta and Chevy Cruze that have traditionally been starter cars for young buyers. For the auto makers, the strategy makes sense: Sport-utility vehicles or trucks have steadily become more popular over the past decade, and also have much better profit margins.\r\n….Detroit is betting that even if young people wait longer to buy a car, they eventually will when finances improve and they start families. And then, they’ll buy an SUV or truck…\r\n…Japanese auto makers are keeping their lower-priced sedans as a way to attract young people to their brands…To appeal to younger consumers, several auto makers. have recently debuted small, sporty crossovers priced under $25,000.\r\n<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3430a7d700&amp;e=5648501957\">Hyundai Motor</a> Co. , for example, rolled out a new Kona small utility last year that comes packed with technology—including a seven-inch touch screen—for a starting price of $19,000. The Korean auto maker revealed an even smaller crossover, called the Venue, at the New York Auto Show this month”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Driving? The Kids Are So Over It', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1232-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:22:53', '2019-06-28 05:22:53', '', 1232, 'http://marcellus.in/1232-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1426, 1, '2019-06-28 05:24:11', '2019-06-28 05:24:11', 'A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1296-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:24:11', '2019-06-28 05:24:11', '', 1296, 'http://marcellus.in/1296-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1428, 1, '2019-06-28 05:26:26', '2019-06-28 05:26:26', 'Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:<em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”\r\nThe life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”\r\n</em>So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with<em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:\r\n‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’\r\nThis habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: “Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:\r\n‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’\r\nNot only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: “Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: “I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”\r\nFarnam Street notes that “Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”\r\n</em>And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:<em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.\r\n‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’\r\nSo we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1230-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:26:26', '2019-06-28 05:26:26', '', 1230, 'http://marcellus.in/1230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1429, 1, '2019-06-28 05:26:52', '2019-06-28 05:26:52', 'Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”\r\n</em>So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em>From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.<em>\r\n</em>Here is Tagore writing in 1885,<em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.\r\nQuoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”\r\n</em>Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting<em>: “In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.\r\nThe Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati<em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.\r\nTagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality – in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.<em>\r\n</em>Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.\r\n</em>This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”\r\n</em>Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India –  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.<em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Traveling With Tagore', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1228-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:26:52', '2019-06-28 05:26:52', '', 1228, 'http://marcellus.in/1228-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1430, 1, '2019-06-28 05:27:17', '2019-06-28 05:27:17', '<em>20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. “Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. “Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”\r\nFor 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow: “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”\r\nMore and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Netanyauism is Winning in Israel – and Globally', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1249-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:27:17', '2019-06-28 05:27:17', '', 1249, 'http://marcellus.in/1249-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1431, 1, '2019-06-28 05:28:05', '2019-06-28 05:28:05', '<em>Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”\r\nKaren’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)\r\nYet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.\r\n<u>Patronage on wall street</u>\r\nIn the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.\r\nJulia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..\r\nJay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.\r\n“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”\r\n“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.\r\n“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”\r\nThis patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.\r\n<u>A revolving door</u>\r\nPatrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….\r\nPatrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1247-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:28:05', '2019-06-28 05:28:05', '', 1247, 'http://marcellus.in/1247-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1432, 1, '2019-06-28 05:28:28', '2019-06-28 05:28:28', '<em>Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.\r\nWe can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.\r\nOn the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………\r\nTo move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.\r\nNone of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1243-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-06-28 05:28:28', '2019-06-28 05:28:28', '', 1243, 'http://marcellus.in/1243-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2932, 1, '2020-02-22 05:42:26', '2020-02-22 05:42:26', '', 'Marcellus_Consistent Compounders_Feb 2020', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_consistent-compounders_feb-2020', '', '', '2020-02-22 05:42:26', '2020-02-22 05:42:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Feb-2020.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(1592, 1, '2019-08-14 13:52:16', '2019-08-14 13:52:16', '<em>Published on:14 August, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>Asking tough questions which shed new light on the opportunities and challenges facing companies is a non-trivial task. Asking difficult questions involves not just preparation but also an understanding of Q&amp;A techniques and a willingness to shed the deference that analysts naturally have of CEOs.</strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<em>“Getting the right question is the key to getting the right answer.” </em>–<strong> Jeff Bezos</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“When you’re a student, you’re judged by how well you answer questions. Somebody else asks the questions, and if you give good answers, you’ll get a good grade. But in life, you’re judged by how good your questions are.” – </em><strong>Robert Langer, MIT professor </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Questions, curiosity and creativity</strong>\r\n“Question everything” said Albert Einstein. The link between curiosity, creativity and questioning is intuitive as at the root of all three behaviours is a yearning for exploring, for probing, for understanding better and/or knowing more than what others do. We have written before creativity and how it has its roots in non-conformist and sceptical/questioning mindset – see<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/\">/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/</a>\r\nWe have also written about the questions that investors need to ask their fund managers – see <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-most-important-questions-to-ask-your-fund-manager/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-most-important-questions-to-ask-your-fund-manager/</a>\r\n\r\nNow we turn our attention to the questions investors like us should ask of the companies which we invest in. These questions are not necessarily meant to be posed just to the CEO of the investee company; indeed smart CEOs will be evasive about answering these sorts of questions. Instead they can also be posed to ex-employees of the company, competitors of the company or distributors or suppliers of the company. The questions are also meant to be answered by the investment analyst herself as she examines the Annual Reports of the company over the past decade.\r\n\r\n<strong>So how can we ask better/more probing questions?</strong>\r\n<strong>Look for questions rather than answers:</strong> When you start analysing a company, the instinctive thing to do is to try look for answers. In fact, from the outset our brain is asking us “How good is this company?”. It takes a conscious effort to switch off this mindset and instead look for questions - rather than answers -  which will help us understand the company better. So, for instance, if we can see that a company has generated superior operating margins and ROCEs for over 10 years, the instinctive question will be regarding the competitive advantages which allowed the company to deliver these great results. The more useful question for the company’s CEO would <em>“Tell me about the evolution of your firm over the past decade. To what extent were the success factors external rather than internal to the firm?”</em> With a question like this, you are keeping your mind open to the possibility that the drivers of the company’s success over the past decade might be exogenous to the firm.\r\n\r\n<strong>Focus on qualitative issues rather than quantitative:</strong> Even ordinary CEOs are good enough to deal with most quantitative questions that investors throw at them eg. How will you improve your ROCE? What CEOs are less prepared to handle are questions on the softer aspects of what makes a company successful. Eg. <em>Who are your two most important direct reports and how did you select them?</em> Another eg. <em>Take us through your capital allocation process.</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Ask open ended rather than closed ended questions:</strong> As Donald Rumsfeld famously noted, we live in a world with unknown unknowns i.e. there are lots of things you don’t know that you don’t know. That’s why open ended questions (eg. <em>What are your recruitment techniques?</em>) are more useful than closed ended questions (eg. Are you satisfied with your recruitment techniques?) because the former leaves the door open for “unknown unknowns” to emerge. Another example of an open ended question would be <em>“Why do you think growth has slowed down?”</em> whereas a closed ended question would “Has revenue growth fallen below your expectations?” [Note: closed ended questions are defined as those which can be answered with a yes/no.]\r\n\r\n<strong>As short questions rather than long questions:</strong> When confronted by successful senior executives such as the CEO of a listed company, most analysts want to avoid getting on the wrong side the executive. This results in the analyst asking wordy questions which are heavily caveated and often closed ended eg. Given that we have had an unusually heavy monsoons, will your second quarter profits be impacted? Short open-ended questions are usually more effective eg. <em>How is business?</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Ask follow-up/funnel questions to clarify and/or to probe further: </strong>If you ask open-ended questions, you tend to get answers which are broad ranging. It makes sense at that juncture to push the CEO towards specifics. So, for example, in response to your question “How is business?”, the CEO answers “We are suffering due to the economic slowdown”, you follow-up questions could be: <em>“How are you measuring the impact of the slowdown? Is there an indicator that can do this for us?”</em> It’s useful to keep a few follow-up questions in your back pocket. Even if you’re looking for a factual response, digging a little deeper can lead to more insightful answer.\r\n\r\n<strong>Use negative framing to your advantage: </strong>In a hierarchical society, most CEOs are used to being told what they want to hear. Hence if you learn to negatively frame most situations, you are more likely to take the CEO outside his zone of comfort. A CEO’s irritation at negatively framed questions can be very revealing. Eg. <em>What can we learn from the sharp slowdown in revenue growth over the past years?</em> Another eg. <em>Given the slowing economy, what red flags are you watching out for in your company’s financial performance?</em> In this context, you might want to read our blog on how to spot CEOs who lie: <a href=\"/blogs/spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>Take notes and refer back to them: </strong>If you are meeting companies every week, you need to keep track of what the CEO said in July 2018 so that you when you meet her again in January 2019, you can refer back to what she said seven months ago. Furthermore, it is also useful to set up a system where suppose I met the CEO in July 2018 but in January 2019 it is my colleague Rakshit who meets the same lady, Rakshit should be able to readily access all of my notes on the company. Otherwise we have no way of assessing whether the CEO delivers on what she promises. Software which makes it easy for your firm to record and retrieve notes are therefore a useful investment.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nInvestment teams who answer the toughest questions (of themselves, of the data at hand, of the company and of their primary data sources) usually deliver superior investment insights. In contrast, investment teams who use standard business school frameworks to analyse companies deliver conventional investment insights. To ask probing questions takes not just preparation but also the willingness to confront the hierarchical mindset which pervades corporate life in many parts of the world. Here are a couple of examples of smart interviewers probing powerful interviewees:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx92bUw7WX8\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx92bUw7WX8</a>: Henry Blodget probes Jeff Bezos for 40 minutes. Blodget is polite and unrelenting in his probing. Bezos is thoughtful and candid in his responses.\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHYiOfBRng\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHYiOfBRng</a>: British journalist David Frost’s 1975 interviews of Richard Nixon (who by this time had stepped down from being the US President due to the Watergate scandal) are the stuff of legend. Not only does Nixon break down under tough questioning from Frost (who had prepared meticulously for this interview), the interviews form the basis of an award winning movie made in 2008.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em><a href=\"/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Asking Difficult Questions', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'asking-difficult-questions', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:17:18', '2019-11-01 06:17:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1592', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1551, 1, '2019-08-07 06:56:01', '2019-08-07 06:56:01', '<em>Published on:7 August, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>The Government of India allowed Marcellus to incorporate as a private limited company on 7<sup>th</sup> August 2018. We have enjoyed serving our 500 clients – in India and abroad – over the past year. We thank our clients for their support and aim to continue compounding their wealth for many years to come. On our first anniversary, we felt it was appropriate to share with you a significant element of our mental transition over the past year.  </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.” – <strong>Charlie Munger</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Epiphany at an investment conference</strong>\r\nLast week someone made the mistake of inviting me to speak at an investment conference in Mumbai. Once I had suitably riled the audience, I exited the venue only to find myself pursued by a salesman from one the financial data vending shops. The salesman was under the misapprehension that I was still the CEO of an investment bank which was spending well in excess of US$150K per annum on financial data. I disabused him of this notion and disappointed him with the factoid that Marcellus’ financial data budget is $1.5K per annum, a figure which would just about pay for the smartphone which the salesman was sporting.\r\n\r\nOnce the salesman had abandoned me for more fruitful quarries, I pondered during my taxi ride home as to why with a 99% drop in my colleagues’ financial data spend we at Marcellus actually feel happier in terms of our relationship with the stockmarket and why the drop in financial data spend had not impacted our investment performance (so far).\r\n\r\nMy conclusion - self-serving as it might be for a group which is more interested in psychology, forensic accounting, history, economics and corporate strategy - is that being on top of whatever it is that is happening in financial markets actually doesn’t count for much. Whilst it probably makes one feel busy as one peers into those big screens, it rarely generates investment insight. So, why is this the case?\r\n\r\n<strong>Being market savvy is the least important driver of investment success</strong>\r\nThe English poet DH Lawrence once noted that if we stare at a map long enough <em>“The map appears to us more real than the land”</em>. Extending the metaphor to market data, if one stares at share prices, P/E multiples, central bank pronouncements and quarterly results long enough, the financial market appears to be more real (and more relevant) to an investor than the real world. Taken to its extreme, the obsession with prices and high frequency data becomes a kind of psychological disorder wherein investor loses all sense of perspective of the real world and builds algorithms to trade basis smoke signals being generated tick-by-tick by the financial market.\r\n\r\nIn their different ways, Buffett, Munger and John Bogle understood this form of psychosis earlier than other investors and built varied investment methods to capitalise on this insight (that focusing on financial markets per se does not generate wealth). Buffett &amp; Munger popularised the notion of delving deep into the sustainable competitive advantages of a company and understanding the quality of its accounts. Bogle’s insight was even more profound.\r\n\r\nBogle took Paul Samuelson’s Efficient Markets theory to heart and was amongst the first executives in the mutual fund industry to fully understand its profound implication, namely, it makes little or no sense to pay juicy fees to a fund manager to manage your money given that the fund manager has little or no chance of consistently beating the market. Thus was born Bogle’s breakthrough idea – in 1975 Vanguard launched the world\'s first index mutual fund. Instead of beating the index and charging high fees, the index fund would mimic the index performance over the long run—thus achieving higher returns with lower costs than the costs associated with actively managed funds.\r\n\r\nDaniel Kahneman’s famous “System 1 vs System 2” framework (from ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ (2011)) can also be used to understand why being on top of stockmarket data does little to generate wealth or happiness. Brian Portnoy in his enjoyable book ‘The Geometry of Wealth: How to shape a life of money &amp; meaning’ (2018) explains why System 1 – which he calls our fast brain i.e. the part of the brain most exposed to financial market data – leads to poor decision making:\r\n<em>“The fast brain loves consistency. It is biased to confirm beliefs and see patterns even when they don’t exist. It shies away from ambiguity and doubt. It accepts given categories and isn’t fond of thinking in terms of probability, preferring specific predictions. It anchors on what you already think you know and ignores evidence that is hard to find. In Kahneman’s terms, ‘what you see is all there is’.”</em>\r\n\r\nNotice the similarity between Kahneman\'s insight (highlighted by last sentence of Portnoy’s para) and the DH Lawrence quote cited earlier in the note – financial markets create an illusory world which can drown those who immerse themselves in market data. This in turn leads to investment mirages such as the one we had highlighted in our 20<sup>th</sup> October 2018 blog on Indian NBFCs – see <a href=\"/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nI don’t have a single financial market app or social media app on my phone (which itself is a battered four year old thing). When I need to check prices I go to the stock exchange website using my phone and that process takes 20-30 seconds. That time lag switches off my fast brain/System 1. Most of my colleagues access stock price data using similar techniques. Only our trader has ready access to real time prices.\r\n\r\nOur five analysts (plus the three interns who work with us) share one terminal from a Indian financial data provider. The terminal’s main function is to give us in digital form financial statements for around 5000 Indian companies going back around 20 years. My colleagues take turns to use this terminal. The delay in accessing the terminal in turn slows down the impulse to drown in data.\r\n\r\nAll of this gives us ample time to read Annual Reports and books. Not only does that make bookworms like me happy, it also gives us a better chance of generating insights. We believe insights which make money tend to come from extensive reading, thinking and in-depth discussions with well-informed people (ideally people who see the world from a different vantage point from our own).\r\n\r\nWe have also invested in a hot water kettle, a big jar of coffee and noise cancelling headsets as we find that these are more useful than financial market data in generating investment insights. In contrast, absorbing loads of market data and crunching massive datasets is a good way to spend time but as highlighted in my 18<sup>th</sup> July blog, that rarely generate insights which people like us can use to make money for our 500 clients: see <a href=\"/blogs/small-data-is-more-important-than-big-data/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/small-data-is-more-important-than-big-data/</a>\r\n\r\nThe Government of India allowed Marcellus Investment Managers to incorporate as a private limited company on 7<sup>th</sup> August 2018. We have had the time of our lives serving our 500 clients – in India and abroad – over the past 12 months. We thank our clients for their support and aim to continue com­pounding their wealth for many years to come.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Being Market Savvy Doesn\'t Help Very Much', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'being-market-savvy-doesnt-help-very-much', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:30:49', '2019-11-19 06:30:49', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1551', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1441, 1, '2019-07-02 07:18:43', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'Valuing longevity of healthy fundamentals', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2019-07-02 07:18:43', '2019-07-02 07:18:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=1441', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(2700, 1, '2020-01-08 03:48:05', '2020-01-08 03:48:05', '<div><strong>With the money market continuing to show reluctance in terms of financing NBFCs, the balance sheet of the sector continues to shrink with obvious adverse consequences for the Indian economy. We suggest three remedies which the authorities should consider implementing in order to prevent the NBFC sector from unravelling further.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>The slide continues</strong>\r\nIn its recent report <em>‘Trend and Progress of Banking in India’</em>, the RBI has said that the asset quality of the NBFC sector has continued to deteriorate in the first half of FY2020. The banks are also suffering a similar fate; the RBI in its Dec, 2019 financial stability report stated that “<em>the gross NPAs of scheduled commercial banks may increase from 9.3% in Sep, 2019 to 9.9% in Sep, 2020 due to a change in macroeconomic scenario, marginal increase in slippages and the denominator effect of declining credit growth.</em>” This seemingly unsolvable problem of persistently high NPAs in India’s lending ecosystem has been further compounded by low credit growth (7.1% in 2019 – this is the second slowest pace of growth in the previous decade).  This has led to a unique situation – on one hand, the excess cash in India’s banking system is at Rs. 4 lakh crores – the highest since the post-demonetisation period and on the other hand we are seeing the second lowest credit growth (the lowest again being the post demonetisation period) in a decade.\r\n\r\n<strong>How did we get ourselves into such a mess?</strong>\r\nAt the heart of India’s economic slowdown is a failure of its financial system. This failure has two distinct drivers:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in crony capitalist lending by banks (public and private sector) which started around 12 years ago and which continued until 3-4 years ago. NPAs arising from this lending have amounted to nearly 15% of the Indian banking system’s assets and have destroyed the risk appetite of all Indian banks (public and private sector) for funding capex.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in NBFC lending in 2017 (driven by cheap availability of debt in the money market which in turn was a consequence of the excess liquidity generated by the events of Nov 2016) resulted in NBFCs financing low quality residential real estate developers along with pilferage of cash by the promoters of these NBFCs. The unravelling of IL&amp;FS in 2018 and Dewan Housing in 2019 was a symptom of this slipshod lending in 2017 &amp; 2018. With other NBFCs teetering on the brink, the money market has stopped financing all NBFCs barring 3 or 4 marquee names. The AA rated NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are now paying a 400-430 bps premium over benchmark yields compared to 300bps a year ago to access bank funding. As a result, the NBFCs have started shrinking their balance sheet size which in turn means that auto loans and home loans have been curtailed severely with obvious consequences for the Indian economy. For a more detailed account of this unravelling, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b40609da4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1b40609da4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797569000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGb167uTeEqTZVzE1j7ZPx1tGZFOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-rbi-can-reverse-the-nbfc-<wbr />crisis</a>.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs a result of the above, credit disbursal in the Indian economy is down 90% YOY i.e. the economy is running on minimal credit disbursal. For a more detailed account of this slowdown, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72fc9f99e3&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D72fc9f99e3%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHmYwlfa3qZBBFh_ly8WJDu54VLXA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>How can we get out of this mess?</strong>\r\nGiven that at the heart of this slowdown is the cancer in India’s lending ecosystem, it follows therefore that remedies must address this cancer. Given the multi-headed nature of the problem, multiple lines of attack must be pursued:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>Privatisation of Indian public sector banks:</u> Whilst the Indian government has repeatedly recapitalised public sector banks (injecting nearly US$50 billion over the last 5 years), it is still not clear whether: (a) the PSU banks’ balance sheets are in good shape with considerable doubts remaining on whether they have properly accounted for their lending to shaky NBFCs (post the ILFS crisis, credit to NBFCs as a % of overall banking credit has grown to almost 9% vs. 5.5% in the pre ILFS era as banks have replaced the CP and CD borrowing of these NBFCs) and other shady business houses; (b) barring a couple of high quality PSU banks, these banks have limited ability to hire adequately trained personnel and build high quality risk management systems. Whilst private sector banks have also suffered from high NPAs, the talent deficit is not as glaring in the private sector. For the banking system to move forward, the government must allow privatisation of PSU banks. The first step forward would be to privatise IDBI Bank. Interestingly, IDBI Bank was NOT nationalised by an act of Parliament and hence is a unique public sector bank whose privatisation does not need to be approved by Parliament. Furthermore, because it is a corporate bank – albeit with a challenged balance sheet – it will be an easier bank to privatise provided the government is realistic about what valuations such a sale might fetch. Once, IDBI is out of the way, the Government can try to see if a better-quality PSU bank like Bank of Baroda can be privatised at a superior valuation. In parallel, the Government needs to expedite the recently announced BPCL privatisation and the long-delayed privatisation of Air India. Without letting go of Government owned assets, it will be difficult for the Government to find the money required for the next steps outlined below.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>A “bad bank” for NBFCs:</u> Barring 3 or 4 prominent NBFCs, the rest of the sector is suffering from the money markets’ lack of faith in their balance sheets as evident from the fact that CPs of NBFCs and HFCs used to account for 23% of the investments of mutual funds and asset managers in the Sep, 2018 quarter, that number has now almost halved to 12%. Loaded up as these balance sheets are with loans to real estate developers, loans to homeowners whose flats have not been delivered (and probably will never be delivered), loans to SME owners whose collateral (shops, factories &amp; warehouses) is highly illiquid. By all accounts, NBFCs’ balance sheets are continuing the deterioration on a monthly basis – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd060c2bb9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfd060c2bb9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE34xi94QOAMjXS0bSFaRVXK6FypQ\">https://www.livemint.com/<wbr />industry/banking/nbfcs-asset-<wbr />quality-continues-to-<wbr />deteriorate-11577210758437.<wbr />html</a>. The RBI Governor has said that the central bank is doing a deep dive into the balance sheet of NBFCs to identify such rotten assets. Identification alone however won’t be enough. These rotten loans then have to be disposed off to a bad bank (or a “bad fund”). The Govt announced last month such a “bad fund” but gave it a corpus of only US$3.5billion and strangely asked for the monies to be directed towards beleaguered real estate developers rather than for the purchase of bad assets (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=972645bbe6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D972645bbe6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEhuArX_2JL4xnRElbMX1_gJT0Ztw\">https://economictimes.<wbr />indiatimes.com/wealth/real-<wbr />estate/have-a-house-in-a-<wbr />stalled-project-heres-all-you-<wbr />need-to-know-about-nirmala-<wbr />sitharamans-realty-und/<wbr />articleshow/71953951.cms</a>). This fund needs far more capital and that capital needs to be used to purchase weak assets which are in workout mode. The question is how much more?\r\n\r\nNBFCs’ NPAs which have remained doubtful for over 2 years (i.e. loans which are highly likely to be a 100% write-off) amounts to nearly 2.5% of their loans outstanding. That amounts to around US$10 billion. To our mind, this is the minimum corpus this fund needs to be able to absorb the lowest quality assets from the balance sheet of weak NBFCs. Ideally, the fund needs to have twice this corpus because it is highly likely that the NBFCs’ current balance sheets understate the scale of the bad loans sitting on their books. Ideally, therefore the “bad fund” needs US$20 billion. In return for being willing to buy these bad assets, the “bad fund” should have a backstop arrangement with the Government that: (a) these bad loans will NOT be subject to the IBC process as that process does not seem to work for lenders (more details given below); and (b) the Government will provide a minimum assured rate of return to investors in the fund. Subject to these two criteria and subject to appropriate oversight of the Investment Committee of the bad fund, foreign investors would be willing to provide capital to the bad fund.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>Clarifying the bankruptcy process for NBFCs and for real estate developers:</u> So far, the IBC process even for conventional borrowers has had mixed success at best. As described by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman in their recent paper <em>“whereas the law specified that cases should be resolved within 270 days, completed cases have actually taken an average of 409 days so far. And progress is even slower in the larger cases, which account for the bulk of the bad loan amounts. More than two years after the RBI referred 12 large debtors to the IBC only half of these cases have been resolved, mostly in the steel sector. Consider the big picture. Only Rs. 2 lakh crore has been resolved through the IBC so far (with recoveries of just Rs. 83,000 crore), a small fraction of the initial stock of NPAs. At this rate, it will take a very, very long time to solve the bad debt problem. And the current rate of resolution actually overstates the prospects, since most of the bankruptcies processed by the IBC so far have been relatively straightforward cases, such as steel producers caught out by downturns in global steel prices….More complex cases, especially those of the independent power producers, which account for a large portion of stressed assets, are still far away from any resolution.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor the Financial Services sector, the IBC situation will be even more complicated as it is not clear from a legal perspective how the rights of a bond holder (who has lent money to an NBFC with specific loans being offered to her as collateral) can be overridden by the waterfall structure mandated by the IBC. This lacuna looks likely to result in prolonged litigation as secured creditors (bondholders), unsecured creditors and depositors fight it out in court. India cannot afford to get into this sort of prolonged legal mess. The Government must step in and in collaboration with the appropriate regulators clarify the law rather than letting the courts establish the case law through trial &amp; error over the next several years. Without legal clarity on this matter, it is not clear that the first two panaceas identified above will work and without the first two panaceas it is not clear, we will get out of the economic mess we find ourselves in.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Tej Shah are CIO and Portfolio Counsellor respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d8ffa14b61&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd8ffa14b61%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLTe5-JtpdOz_oMISH2oivXUOEug\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>).</em></div>\r\n<div>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bc4bc07dd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0bc4bc07dd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEW2QHeN92YbKMcO41QmG7KesYXTg\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'How Can the NBFC Sector\'s Ongoing Slide be Reversed?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'how-can-the-nbfc-sectors-ongoing-slide-be-reversed', '', '', '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?page_id=2700', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(1449, 1, '2019-07-02 08:02:08', '2019-07-02 08:02:08', '', 'july1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'july1-2', '', '', '2019-07-02 08:02:08', '2019-07-02 08:02:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/july1-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2069, 1, '2019-11-01 07:02:30', '2019-11-01 07:02:30', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Marcellus</a>, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 07:02:30', '2019-11-01 07:02:30', '', 38, 'https://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1461, 1, '2019-07-07 08:09:21', '2019-07-07 08:09:21', 'Vivek Deshpande has beautifully captured the story of Pyare Khan’s hard work, determination and his growth as well as opportunities which a developing country like India throws to its ordinary citizens.\r\nPyare Khan’s journey starts from riding an autorickshaw in the by lanes of Nagpur. His desire of making big led him to take a loan for his first truck in 2004. He never looked back since then and his company is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. He won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus as he presented his case in Hindi and without any laptop.\r\n<em>“In 2004, when 26-year-old autorickshaw driver Pyare Khan approached the Nagpur branch of ING Vysya Bank for a loan to buy a truck, branch manager Bhushan Bais wasn’t impressed since Khan had little by way of collateral. Yet, after Khan’s relentless pursuit, Bais finally sanctioned a loan of Rs 11 lakh. Khan bought his truck and repaid the loan within two years, at least two years ahead of the deadline. On June 20 this year, when UAE-based investment bank Imperial Capital L.L.C. offered a loan of Rs 80 crore to Khan’s transport company, Ashmi Road Transport, leading the charge on Khan’s behalf was Bais as the company’s Head of Finance, a position he took up after he quit ING Vysya in 2016. </em>\r\n<em>Between the story of these two loans lies the story of how Khan, now 41, scripted one of the most heartwarming entrepreneurial success stories. Registered in 2013, Khan’s Ashmi Road Transport Pvt Ltd is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. The company has 10 branch offices across the country, with about 500 employees. Talking of his days of struggle, Khan says, “My mother Raisa Khatun did odd jobs to feed the four of us — my two brothers, a sister and me. We chipped in by selling oranges at the Nagpur railway station. As soon as I got a driving licence, I joined a courier company as driver but left the job after an accident in Odisha when I was 18. In the late nineties, I bought an auto-rickshaw and ran it for a while,” says Khan, adding that in those days, he played the keyboard and was part of Nagpur’s Melody Makers group. “I thought I should buy a bus to ferry our group to programme venues. So I bought one by selling some of my instruments and other valuables,” he says. That venture, however, soon went bust and in 2004, he decided to buy a truck. There has been no looking back since then. By 2007, Khan had a fleet of eight trucks and in 2013, he registered his company. Khan now undertakes deliveries for companies such as KEC International, JSW Steel, Tata and SAIL…..</em>\r\n<em>Says Bais, “Though I had my reservations about granting him the loan in 2004, I had a gut feeling that he was perhaps an honest man. He proved me right. In 2016, after hearing of his impeccable credentials as a businessman, I accepted his offer to join him.” Khan’s moment of glory came in 2018, when he won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus. Unlike 18 other contestants, two of them from the US, who were equipped with laptops and PowerPoint presentations, Khan simply stood up and presented his case, in Hindi.</em>\r\n<em>“When the organisers of the contest asked me to take part, I wasn’t sure. I didn’t even know what IIM was. So I went there reluctantly, without knowing what to say,” says Khan. But when he was declared winner and he received the award, tears rolled down his cheeks, Khan says. For now, Khan is focussed on expanding his business. Ashmi Road Transport Private Limited will soon shift to a Rs 7-crore corporate office on three acres close to Nagpur city. “I intend to expand my business in a couple of years and generate more jobs, which is what our country needs the most,” says Khan.</em>', 'Auto-driver to IIM case study: Pyare Khan’s journey on uncharted highway', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'auto-driver-to-iim-case-study-pyare-khans-journey-on-uncharted-highway', '', '', '2019-07-19 11:56:15', '2019-07-19 11:56:15', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1461', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(1465, 1, '2019-07-10 14:52:30', '2019-07-10 14:52:30', '<em>Published on:10 July, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>The basic steps to reduce mental clutter appear to be relatively straightforward: (1) Start with your goals, (2) Then prioritise your tasks &amp; actions, and (3) Then use checklists for planning &amp; execution. As I cut down on my mental clutter, it is becoming easier to focus longer and deeper on the sorts of things which I like to do eg. reading and thinking at length about a very small number of companies. </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Nothing contributes so much to tranquilize the mind as a steady purpose – a point on which the soul may fix its intellectual eye.”– <strong>Mary Shelley</strong></em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Five sequential steps to reducing mental clutter</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Start with your Goals: </strong>Each of us has to figure out what we want from our lives. Over the years, I have with great envy watched people wiser than me lay out their goals with great clarity. A friend, who also manages a fund, recently told me <em>“In an ever more complicated world, I have sought to simplify my life and focus on fewer things – starting with my family, my investors and closest colleagues”. </em>Another helpful way to figure out what to focus on comes from Greg McKeown in his outstanding book ‘Essentialism’ (2011): <em>“If it isn’t a clear yes, it’s a clear no.” </em>What McKeown is saying is that eliminating all the “maybes” from our life allows us – perhaps forces us – to focus on the stuff that we know we really want to focus on.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nA very different philosophy to use to settle upon what to do with your life comes from Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon. Before he started Amazon, Bezos was a trader in the New York offices of the investment manager, DE Shaw &amp; Co. Not only was Bezos highly paid, the founder of the firm liked him and seemed to have earmarked him for bigger things. To leave all this behind him and start an online bookstore in the early 1990s – at a time when few people had heard of the internet let alone understand what an online bookstore would be – was a massive deal for Bezos. Most people around him – including his boss and Bezos’ parents – urged caution.\r\n\r\nSo how did Bezos convince himself to take the plunge and chart a course which not only reset his goals in life but changed the way the <em>world shops?</em> In Bezos’ own words:\r\n<em>“The framework I found, which made the decision incredibly easy, was what I called – which only a nerd would call – a “regret minimisation framework”. So I wanted to project myself forward to age 80 and say, “Okay, now I’m looking back on my life. I want to have minimized the number of regrets I have.” I knew that when I was 80 I was not going to regret having tried this. I was not going to regret trying to participate in this thing called the Internet that I thought was going to be a really big deal. I knew that if I failed I wouldn’t regret that, but I knew the one thing that I might regret is not ever having tried. I knew that that would haunt me every day, and so, when I thought about it that way it was an incredibly easy decision.”</em>\r\n\r\nOur goals don’t always have to be profound life goals hinging around our family &amp; friends; they can be practical goals such us getting promoted at work or saving money for retirement or becoming the best drummer in the country. Whatever they might be, goals are the foundation of mental decluttering. Goals give our life purpose and, as highlighted in the Mary Shelley quote, that plays a major role in decluttering our mind\r\n\r\n<strong>2. Then prioritise: </strong>Even a basic “to do” list helps me declutter my mind and frees up mental space. For most of us, if we don’t write things down, the chances are high that we will forget that action point. More recently, I have moved to using the memo function available on my smartphone to create a “to do” list which can easily be turned into a prioritised list of action points. When it comes prioritising, the most useful principle is to do the ‘tough things first’ (Ray Zinn wrote a famous book with this title and with the management philosophy that leaders need to tackle the most difficult problems first.)\r\n\r\nBut suppose you were to say that your goals are not as profound as those of the fund manager in the preceding paragraph; instead you are trying to achieve something as practical as, say, buying a flat or getting a well-paid job or finding a husband. How should you prioritise?\r\n\r\nIn a beautiful book on how maths can help us optimize our goal seeking in everyday life, Brian Christian &amp; Tom Griffiths explain in “Algorithms to Live By” (2016) that all of these are variants of the “optimal stopping” problem i.e. problems where faced with a range of possible choices (which usually appear to you in sequential form such that once you have rejected an option, that option never reappears) we need to decide when to stop looking and grab the first best option which appears thereafter. The answer to these sorts of problems is usually 37%. So, if, for example, you are planning to sell your house over the next 100 days, you should wait to see what offers you get until day 37 and then take the best offer you get on any day thereafter. It’s worth Googling on this subject (of optimal stopping) to see how high school probability calculations can help us reduce mental clutter and improve clarity of thought.\r\n\r\n<strong>3. Then use checklists for planning &amp; execution: </strong>Thanks to Atul Gawande and his bestselling book “The Checklist Manifesto” (2009), millions of professionals have understood the power of this seemingly simple process. Gawande highlighted that checklists break down complex tasks whilst ensuring consistency and efficiency especially if more than one person is working on a project. Everybody – from ambulance crews to ariline pilots to architects – can benefit from checklists.\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, we have turned the investment process of assessing a stock into a checklist (step 1: check accounting quality; step 2: check consistency of ROCE generation and revenue growth over the past 15 years; step 3: read the last 15 years of annual reports to assess capital allocation; step 4: assess sustainable competitive advantages, etc).\r\n\r\n<strong>4. Use a jotter for thoughts &amp; ideas: </strong>More often than not, many of us get our best ideas not when we are at our desk trying to solve a problem. Instead, the breakthrough ideas, the lightbulb moments often arise when our brain is relaxed, say, in the shower or during the morning run. Rather than merging these ideas with the “to do” list or with the execution plan, it is usually a better to create a separate repository for such creative ideas. Save your best ideas in your chosen repository so that you neither lose them and nor do they take up valuable mental real estate.\r\n\r\n<b>5. Reduce time spent on the smartphone: </b>Most smartphones allow you to track how much time you are spending staring at that screen. Given that many professionals now end up having to do 50-60 hour weeks (including commuting time), if over and above that you are spending any more than an hour a day on your smartphone, it will be hard for you to think straight. (Until a year ago, I was doing 3 hours of phone screentime per day on average.)\r\n\r\nThe obvious way to reduce time spent on the phone is to eliminate social media and newsfeeds from your life. Life will become a little boring at first as you miss out on those great jokes on Whatsapp, the daily trolling of liberals on Facebook and the latest update on politics &amp; sport but soon you will find yourself enjoying your new, freed up mental real estate. Cal Newport has laid out of the merits of reduced smartphone usage in his fabulous books – ‘Deep Work’ (2016) and ‘Digital Minimalism’ (2019).\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nMany of us at Marcellus are refugees from the large corporate world where our life was a daily blur of meetings, targets, budgets, travel, deadlines, networking, etc. We walked away from that world partly because we realised that no matter what our abilities were, if we couldn’t control our working environment, we wouldn’t be able to function effectively. As Phil Dobson says in ‘The Brain Book’ (2016), <em>“Even if you meditate every day, if you can’t manage your tasks and your projects, you system will go back into stress due to cognitive overload.” </em>\r\n\r\nWhilst I often struggle with the definition of what’s important in my personal life, it has become easier to de-clutter my professional life. For example, I have found that one of the biggest time wasters in corporate life are “networking events” where people whose own objectives of attending the event are fuzzy meet others with equally fuzzy objectives in a noisy setting. Pulling out of work-related events where no work really gets done is a relatively straightforward to reducing mental clutter.\r\n\r\nAs I gradually seek to reduce mental clutter, I am finding that it is becoming easier to focus longer and deeper on the sorts of things which I like to do eg. thinking about which companies are better than others and why they are better than others; then reading up more on these companies, meeting interesting people who know more about these companies than I do and then thinking further. It is the sort of work I haven’t had a chance to do for a long time.\r\n\r\nAround the time my fellow founders and I were setting up Marcellus, we read Cal Newport’s ‘Deep Work: Rules for Focused Success in a Distracted World’. Newport says: <em>“The ability to perform deep work is increasingly rare at exactly the same time that the work is becoming increasingly valuable in our economy. As a consequence, the few who cultivate this skill, and then make it the core of their working life will thrive.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Five Steps to Decluttering our Minds', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-five-steps-to-decluttering-our-minds', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:32:08', '2019-11-01 06:32:08', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1465', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1499, 1, '2019-07-19 11:56:15', '2019-07-19 11:56:15', 'Vivek Deshpande has beautifully captured the story of Pyare Khan’s hard work, determination and his growth as well as opportunities which a developing country like India throws to its ordinary citizens.\r\nPyare Khan’s journey starts from riding an autorickshaw in the by lanes of Nagpur. His desire of making big led him to take a loan for his first truck in 2004. He never looked back since then and his company is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. He won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus as he presented his case in Hindi and without any laptop.\r\n<em>“In 2004, when 26-year-old autorickshaw driver Pyare Khan approached the Nagpur branch of ING Vysya Bank for a loan to buy a truck, branch manager Bhushan Bais wasn’t impressed since Khan had little by way of collateral. Yet, after Khan’s relentless pursuit, Bais finally sanctioned a loan of Rs 11 lakh. Khan bought his truck and repaid the loan within two years, at least two years ahead of the deadline. On June 20 this year, when UAE-based investment bank Imperial Capital L.L.C. offered a loan of Rs 80 crore to Khan’s transport company, Ashmi Road Transport, leading the charge on Khan’s behalf was Bais as the company’s Head of Finance, a position he took up after he quit ING Vysya in 2016. </em>\r\n<em>Between the story of these two loans lies the story of how Khan, now 41, scripted one of the most heartwarming entrepreneurial success stories. Registered in 2013, Khan’s Ashmi Road Transport Pvt Ltd is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. The company has 10 branch offices across the country, with about 500 employees. Talking of his days of struggle, Khan says, “My mother Raisa Khatun did odd jobs to feed the four of us — my two brothers, a sister and me. We chipped in by selling oranges at the Nagpur railway station. As soon as I got a driving licence, I joined a courier company as driver but left the job after an accident in Odisha when I was 18. In the late nineties, I bought an auto-rickshaw and ran it for a while,” says Khan, adding that in those days, he played the keyboard and was part of Nagpur’s Melody Makers group. “I thought I should buy a bus to ferry our group to programme venues. So I bought one by selling some of my instruments and other valuables,” he says. That venture, however, soon went bust and in 2004, he decided to buy a truck. There has been no looking back since then. By 2007, Khan had a fleet of eight trucks and in 2013, he registered his company. Khan now undertakes deliveries for companies such as KEC International, JSW Steel, Tata and SAIL…..</em>\r\n<em>Says Bais, “Though I had my reservations about granting him the loan in 2004, I had a gut feeling that he was perhaps an honest man. He proved me right. In 2016, after hearing of his impeccable credentials as a businessman, I accepted his offer to join him.” Khan’s moment of glory came in 2018, when he won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus. Unlike 18 other contestants, two of them from the US, who were equipped with laptops and PowerPoint presentations, Khan simply stood up and presented his case, in Hindi.</em>\r\n<em>“When the organisers of the contest asked me to take part, I wasn’t sure. I didn’t even know what IIM was. So I went there reluctantly, without knowing what to say,” says Khan. But when he was declared winner and he received the award, tears rolled down his cheeks, Khan says. For now, Khan is focussed on expanding his business. Ashmi Road Transport Private Limited will soon shift to a Rs 7-crore corporate office on three acres close to Nagpur city. “I intend to expand my business in a couple of years and generate more jobs, which is what our country needs the most,” says Khan.</em>', 'Auto-driver to IIM case study: Pyare Khan’s journey on uncharted highway', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1461-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-19 11:56:15', '2019-07-19 11:56:15', '', 1461, 'http://marcellus.in/1461-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1462, 1, '2019-07-07 08:09:21', '2019-07-07 08:09:21', 'Author: Vivek Deshpande\r\nSource: Indian Express (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ffc66b1b67&amp;e=5648501957\">https://indianexpress.com/article/india/auto-driver-to-iim-case-study-his-journey-on-uncharted-highway-5807065/</a>)\r\n\r\nVivek Deshpande has beautifully captured the story of Pyare Khan’s hard work, determination and his growth as well as opportunities which a developing country like India throws to its ordinary citizens.\r\nPyare Khan’s journey starts from riding an autorickshaw in the by lanes of Nagpur. His desire of making big led him to take a loan for his first truck in 2004. He never looked back since then and his company is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. He won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus as he presented his case in Hindi and without any laptop.\r\n<em>“In 2004, when 26-year-old autorickshaw driver Pyare Khan approached the Nagpur branch of ING Vysya Bank for a loan to buy a truck, branch manager Bhushan Bais wasn’t impressed since Khan had little by way of collateral. Yet, after Khan’s relentless pursuit, Bais finally sanctioned a loan of Rs 11 lakh. Khan bought his truck and repaid the loan within two years, at least two years ahead of the deadline. On June 20 this year, when UAE-based investment bank Imperial Capital L.L.C. offered a loan of Rs 80 crore to Khan’s transport company, Ashmi Road Transport, leading the charge on Khan’s behalf was Bais as the company’s Head of Finance, a position he took up after he quit ING Vysya in 2016. </em>\r\n<em>Between the story of these two loans lies the story of how Khan, now 41, scripted one of the most heartwarming entrepreneurial success stories. Registered in 2013, Khan’s Ashmi Road Transport Pvt Ltd is now a Rs 400-cr-turnover company that owns a fleet of 125 trucks and hires a fleet of over 3,000 trucks a day to ferry steel and power infrastructure across the country, and even abroad. The company has 10 branch offices across the country, with about 500 employees. Talking of his days of struggle, Khan says, “My mother Raisa Khatun did odd jobs to feed the four of us — my two brothers, a sister and me. We chipped in by selling oranges at the Nagpur railway station. As soon as I got a driving licence, I joined a courier company as driver but left the job after an accident in Odisha when I was 18. In the late nineties, I bought an auto-rickshaw and ran it for a while,” says Khan, adding that in those days, he played the keyboard and was part of Nagpur’s Melody Makers group. “I thought I should buy a bus to ferry our group to programme venues. So I bought one by selling some of my instruments and other valuables,” he says. That venture, however, soon went bust and in 2004, he decided to buy a truck. There has been no looking back since then. By 2007, Khan had a fleet of eight trucks and in 2013, he registered his company. Khan now undertakes deliveries for companies such as KEC International, JSW Steel, Tata and SAIL…..</em>\r\n<em>Says Bais, “Though I had my reservations about granting him the loan in 2004, I had a gut feeling that he was perhaps an honest man. He proved me right. In 2016, after hearing of his impeccable credentials as a businessman, I accepted his offer to join him.” Khan’s moment of glory came in 2018, when he won the top prize in a contest for young transport entrepreneurs, a programme organised jointly by IIM-Ahmedabad and Mahindra Truck &amp; Bus. Unlike 18 other contestants, two of them from the US, who were equipped with laptops and PowerPoint presentations, Khan simply stood up and presented his case, in Hindi.</em>\r\n<em>“When the organisers of the contest asked me to take part, I wasn’t sure. I didn’t even know what IIM was. So I went there reluctantly, without knowing what to say,” says Khan. But when he was declared winner and he received the award, tears rolled down his cheeks, Khan says. For now, Khan is focussed on expanding his business. Ashmi Road Transport Private Limited will soon shift to a Rs 7-crore corporate office on three acres close to Nagpur city. “I intend to expand my business in a couple of years and generate more jobs, which is what our country needs the most,” says Khan.</em>', 'Auto-driver to IIM case study: Pyare Khan’s journey on uncharted highway', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1461-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:09:21', '2019-07-07 08:09:21', '', 1461, 'http://marcellus.in/1461-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1463, 1, '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', 'Author: Kapil Viswanathan, Sangita Jindal\r\nSource: Live Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8599f71633&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.livemint.com/opinion</a>)\r\nArt has witnessed the evolution of human progress over centuries and it is our ability to appreciate beauty through art that set us apart from other living species &amp; machines. In a changing world of data, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous machines, the arts are of greater significance than ever before. Arts can motivate thinking that is non-linear, breaking stereotypes and existing paradigms and that is what we need today to solve the deep, reflective and purposeful consideration of problems facing our world today.\r\nToday people will have to adopt new tools like Virtual Reality &amp; Artificial Intelligence to improve/enlarge their artistic expression. In future, it will not be only humans that create arts as now machines/AI can create music/ songs by studying thousands of popular tunes. The implications of machine-created art and new media are complex and several. But one thing is for sure—it will add to the richness of the universe of the arts, which humans can enjoy and appreciate.\r\n<em>“From cave paintings during the stone age to subway graffiti in today’s cities, the arts have consistently borne witness to the complex journey of human progress. The ability to appreciate and create beauty in various forms sets us apart from other living species and machines—it is what makes us human. The 6th century Sanskrit poet Bhartrihari, in his Neeti Shatakam, opines that a person devoid of poetry, music and arts is veritably an animal. A thousand years later, the bard, Shakespeare, in The Merchant Of Venice, similarly derided “the man who hath no music in himself\" as someone fit for treason and not to be trusted. In more recent times, when Winston Churchill was asked to cut government spending on the arts during World War II, his purported response was, “Then what are we fighting for?\"</em>\r\n<em>Art is much more than the display of a skill; it is a way of imaginatively exploring and responding to social situations, political crises and technological innovations. Whether it is Picasso’s Guernica or Joseph Heller’s Catch-22, an impassioned work of art or literature carries within itself the capacity to explore and expose the status quo, in this case the brutality of war. Movements like Cubism and Abstraction have held a mirror to the changing face of our civilization—the atomization of the individual and the fragmentation of life itself in the mechanized 20th century. At the centre of changing technology and altering art forms stands the human being, whose own technologies of the self are constantly and continuously transforming.</em>\r\n<em>In a changing world of data, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous machines, the arts are of greater significance than ever before. The culture of instant gratification and shortening attention spans are at odds with deep, reflective and purposeful consideration of problems facing our world today. Harvard University’s former president Drew Gilpin Faust boasts of an arts history class at Harvard where students are compelled to gaze at a painting for three straight hours. It’s not difficult to imagine the impact this would have on fast millennial minds. John Hennessy, the iconic former president of Stanford University, in an address to Stanford’s academic council, emphasized the role of the arts, interwoven with other disciplines such as technology, in helping students think creatively and imaginatively in solving complex problems….. Google’s project Magenta has already written a song by itself, without any human input. It developed a taste for music by studying thousands of popular tunes, and taught itself how to create a new tune. Aiva (acronym for Artificial Intelligence Virtual Artist) is the first machine to be recognized as a composer by a music society, the 150-year old SACEM in Paris. Ahmed Elgammal, a computer scientist at Rutgers University, has created an algorithm to produce original paintings, based on an aesthetic it develops by studying thousands of paintings of different artistic styles. In a blind (poor pun intended) test with human subjects, he found that the paintings produced by his algorithm were preferred over paintings produced by human artists, including several from Art Basel, one of the top art shows in the world…. The arts have been an integral and defining part of the human journey. Whether we lived in caves or plan to colonize Mars, the arts represent the essence of humanity.</em>', 'The special role of arts in the day and age of machines', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-special-role-of-arts-in-the-day-and-age-of-machines', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1463', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1464, 1, '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', 'Author: Kapil Viswanathan, Sangita Jindal\r\nSource: Live Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8599f71633&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.livemint.com/opinion</a>)\r\nArt has witnessed the evolution of human progress over centuries and it is our ability to appreciate beauty through art that set us apart from other living species &amp; machines. In a changing world of data, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous machines, the arts are of greater significance than ever before. Arts can motivate thinking that is non-linear, breaking stereotypes and existing paradigms and that is what we need today to solve the deep, reflective and purposeful consideration of problems facing our world today.\r\nToday people will have to adopt new tools like Virtual Reality &amp; Artificial Intelligence to improve/enlarge their artistic expression. In future, it will not be only humans that create arts as now machines/AI can create music/ songs by studying thousands of popular tunes. The implications of machine-created art and new media are complex and several. But one thing is for sure—it will add to the richness of the universe of the arts, which humans can enjoy and appreciate.\r\n<em>“From cave paintings during the stone age to subway graffiti in today’s cities, the arts have consistently borne witness to the complex journey of human progress. The ability to appreciate and create beauty in various forms sets us apart from other living species and machines—it is what makes us human. The 6th century Sanskrit poet Bhartrihari, in his Neeti Shatakam, opines that a person devoid of poetry, music and arts is veritably an animal. A thousand years later, the bard, Shakespeare, in The Merchant Of Venice, similarly derided “the man who hath no music in himself\" as someone fit for treason and not to be trusted. In more recent times, when Winston Churchill was asked to cut government spending on the arts during World War II, his purported response was, “Then what are we fighting for?\"</em>\r\n<em>Art is much more than the display of a skill; it is a way of imaginatively exploring and responding to social situations, political crises and technological innovations. Whether it is Picasso’s Guernica or Joseph Heller’s Catch-22, an impassioned work of art or literature carries within itself the capacity to explore and expose the status quo, in this case the brutality of war. Movements like Cubism and Abstraction have held a mirror to the changing face of our civilization—the atomization of the individual and the fragmentation of life itself in the mechanized 20th century. At the centre of changing technology and altering art forms stands the human being, whose own technologies of the self are constantly and continuously transforming.</em>\r\n<em>In a changing world of data, Artificial Intelligence and autonomous machines, the arts are of greater significance than ever before. The culture of instant gratification and shortening attention spans are at odds with deep, reflective and purposeful consideration of problems facing our world today. Harvard University’s former president Drew Gilpin Faust boasts of an arts history class at Harvard where students are compelled to gaze at a painting for three straight hours. It’s not difficult to imagine the impact this would have on fast millennial minds. John Hennessy, the iconic former president of Stanford University, in an address to Stanford’s academic council, emphasized the role of the arts, interwoven with other disciplines such as technology, in helping students think creatively and imaginatively in solving complex problems….. Google’s project Magenta has already written a song by itself, without any human input. It developed a taste for music by studying thousands of popular tunes, and taught itself how to create a new tune. Aiva (acronym for Artificial Intelligence Virtual Artist) is the first machine to be recognized as a composer by a music society, the 150-year old SACEM in Paris. Ahmed Elgammal, a computer scientist at Rutgers University, has created an algorithm to produce original paintings, based on an aesthetic it develops by studying thousands of paintings of different artistic styles. In a blind (poor pun intended) test with human subjects, he found that the paintings produced by his algorithm were preferred over paintings produced by human artists, including several from Art Basel, one of the top art shows in the world…. The arts have been an integral and defining part of the human journey. Whether we lived in caves or plan to colonize Mars, the arts represent the essence of humanity.</em>', 'The special role of arts in the day and age of machines', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1463-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '2019-07-07 08:10:14', '', 1463, 'http://marcellus.in/1463-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1500, 1, '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', 'Author: Masha Gessen\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=99f62bacf8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/martina-navratilova-on-megan-rapinoe-and-the-trajectory-of-gay-women-in-sports</a>)\r\nThe unwinding of prejudice – whether it is around race, caste or sexuality – is not just a socially relevant issue, it is also fascinating for investors to watch given the insights it provides into how “consensus” on a given subject evolves the course of 20-30 years. Hence, in the wake of America’s victory in the women’s football world cup, the author begins this New Yorker piece by saying: <em>“Megan Rapinoe, the co-captain of the champion U.S. women’s soccer team, is confidently and casually everyone’s current favorite athlete, leader, and lesbian. As I watched her take the podium at the ticker-tape parade in New York on Wednesday, her gestures and posture unapologetically what some of us watching would classify as dykey (others may say, politely, that her presentation was not traditionally feminine), I wondered what this moment felt like for another woman, the first American professional athlete to come out.”</em>\r\nSo the author, Masha Gessen, called tennis legend Martina Navratilova to understand how she “came out” as a lesbian in the early 1980s. Martina’s first challenge was that she was seeking American nationality and hence was fearful of coming out: <em>“In 1979, Navratilova fell in love with the writer Rita Mae Brown, whose 1973 novel, “Rubyfruit Jungle,” remains the only American lesbian-themed massive best-seller. (It was published by a feminist collective and picked up by Bantam, a few years later, when it had sold seventy thousand copies.) Brown introduced Navratilova to the world of politically active lesbians, in which she was a celebrity, and Navratilova began thinking of coming out publicly. The problem was, her application for U.S. citizenship was still pending and could be denied on the grounds of her homosexuality. (This provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act was dropped in 1990, when it was redrafted by Representative Barney Frank, of Massachusetts, who is gay.) Navratilova developed a new way of deflecting the sexuality question: she would now say, “I can’t talk about it now.””</em>\r\nMartina’s second challenge was dealing with her sponsors and the sponsors of the women’s tennis tour, both of whom might not like the idea of sponsoring lesbians: <em>““The sponsors had said to the people in charge that if there was another scandal that they would pull their sponsorship from the tour. So first I was protecting my citizenship, and then I was protecting the people I was with at the W.T.A. I felt I was responsible for sixty to a hundred women.” Their livelihoods depended in large part on the sponsorship money that came from Avon, the cosmetics company then behind the W.T.A.”</em>\r\nAs the 1980s wore on, American advertisers gradually came to terms with Martina’s sexual identity but advertisers outside America did not: <em>“Avon did not in fact drop its sponsorship of the W.T.A. Nor did Navratilova lose the endorsements she had—the racquets and shoes stayed in place. “But I couldn’t get any deals outside of that in the U.S., because I was out,” she said. Even as her career soared, as did the popularity of women’s tennis, advertising agencies stayed away. “They would call my agent about a commercial or something, and she would say, ‘How about Martina?’ and they would say no and then Chris [Evert] would get the deal, or somebody else. It was the kiss of death. Advertisers wouldn’t touch me with a ten-foot pole.”</em>\r\nSo how does Martina feel when she now sees how openly same sex US footballers are advertising their sexuality to the world: <em>““It’s just fantastic,” Navratilova said. “It took a long time. This was thirty years ago that this was going on. It seems like it happened so quickly, gay marriage and all that, but if you are living in the middle of it, it happened very slowly. I am just thrilled that it’s not only O.K.—it’s becoming less and less of a thing. When people come out, it doesn’t make headlines anymore. It’s a non-issue, which I’ve always said—that I hope one day it will be a non-issue. That’s exactly what I’ve been marching for for decades. I’m thrilled. I’m just so thrilled.””</em>', 'Martina Navratilova on Megan Rapinoe and the Trajectory of Gay Women in Sports', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'martina-navratilova-on-megan-rapinoe-and-the-trajectory-of-gay-women-in-sports', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1500', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1501, 1, '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', 'Author: Masha Gessen\r\nSource: New Yorker (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=99f62bacf8&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/martina-navratilova-on-megan-rapinoe-and-the-trajectory-of-gay-women-in-sports</a>)\r\nThe unwinding of prejudice – whether it is around race, caste or sexuality – is not just a socially relevant issue, it is also fascinating for investors to watch given the insights it provides into how “consensus” on a given subject evolves the course of 20-30 years. Hence, in the wake of America’s victory in the women’s football world cup, the author begins this New Yorker piece by saying: <em>“Megan Rapinoe, the co-captain of the champion U.S. women’s soccer team, is confidently and casually everyone’s current favorite athlete, leader, and lesbian. As I watched her take the podium at the ticker-tape parade in New York on Wednesday, her gestures and posture unapologetically what some of us watching would classify as dykey (others may say, politely, that her presentation was not traditionally feminine), I wondered what this moment felt like for another woman, the first American professional athlete to come out.”</em>\r\nSo the author, Masha Gessen, called tennis legend Martina Navratilova to understand how she “came out” as a lesbian in the early 1980s. Martina’s first challenge was that she was seeking American nationality and hence was fearful of coming out: <em>“In 1979, Navratilova fell in love with the writer Rita Mae Brown, whose 1973 novel, “Rubyfruit Jungle,” remains the only American lesbian-themed massive best-seller. (It was published by a feminist collective and picked up by Bantam, a few years later, when it had sold seventy thousand copies.) Brown introduced Navratilova to the world of politically active lesbians, in which she was a celebrity, and Navratilova began thinking of coming out publicly. The problem was, her application for U.S. citizenship was still pending and could be denied on the grounds of her homosexuality. (This provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act was dropped in 1990, when it was redrafted by Representative Barney Frank, of Massachusetts, who is gay.) Navratilova developed a new way of deflecting the sexuality question: she would now say, “I can’t talk about it now.””</em>\r\nMartina’s second challenge was dealing with her sponsors and the sponsors of the women’s tennis tour, both of whom might not like the idea of sponsoring lesbians: <em>““The sponsors had said to the people in charge that if there was another scandal that they would pull their sponsorship from the tour. So first I was protecting my citizenship, and then I was protecting the people I was with at the W.T.A. I felt I was responsible for sixty to a hundred women.” Their livelihoods depended in large part on the sponsorship money that came from Avon, the cosmetics company then behind the W.T.A.”</em>\r\nAs the 1980s wore on, American advertisers gradually came to terms with Martina’s sexual identity but advertisers outside America did not: <em>“Avon did not in fact drop its sponsorship of the W.T.A. Nor did Navratilova lose the endorsements she had—the racquets and shoes stayed in place. “But I couldn’t get any deals outside of that in the U.S., because I was out,” she said. Even as her career soared, as did the popularity of women’s tennis, advertising agencies stayed away. “They would call my agent about a commercial or something, and she would say, ‘How about Martina?’ and they would say no and then Chris [Evert] would get the deal, or somebody else. It was the kiss of death. Advertisers wouldn’t touch me with a ten-foot pole.”</em>\r\nSo how does Martina feel when she now sees how openly same sex US footballers are advertising their sexuality to the world: <em>““It’s just fantastic,” Navratilova said. “It took a long time. This was thirty years ago that this was going on. It seems like it happened so quickly, gay marriage and all that, but if you are living in the middle of it, it happened very slowly. I am just thrilled that it’s not only O.K.—it’s becoming less and less of a thing. When people come out, it doesn’t make headlines anymore. It’s a non-issue, which I’ve always said—that I hope one day it will be a non-issue. That’s exactly what I’ve been marching for for decades. I’m thrilled. I’m just so thrilled.””</em>', 'Martina Navratilova on Megan Rapinoe and the Trajectory of Gay Women in Sports', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1500-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '2019-07-21 08:14:03', '', 1500, 'http://marcellus.in/1500-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1467, 1, '2019-06-30 08:06:35', '2019-06-30 08:06:35', 'Author: Thomas Graham\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=38113c1044&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20190521-is-this-the-best-shaggy-dog-story-ever-written</a>)\r\nWritten in the middle of the 18<sup>th</sup> century by Lawrence Stern, an Anglican Parish priest who wanted to become famous, the autobiography of the fictional character Tristram Shandy, “The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman” is a wildly original bestseller which influenced some of the greatest writers of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The book was a smash hit upon publication. <em>““The first two volumes were wildly popular,”  Judith Hawley, an expert on 18th-Century literature, tells BBC Culture. “So much so that the name Tristram Shandy entered popular culture. There was a lot of branded merchandise; race horses were named after him; lots of imitation novels. It became a marketing phenomenon.””</em>\r\nSo what exactly did Sterne do which marked this books out as one of the most original books ever written?\r\nFirstly, the chronology used in the book is deliberately messed up: <em>“to describe them as a sequence belies the screwy time scheme of the book, which is by turns stretched and squashed, folded back on itself and internally disordered. The author’s preface turns up in the third volume, when Tristram’s mother is giving birth (to him) and the Shandy men have dozed off: “All my heroes are off my hands; – ’tis the first time I have had a moment to spare, – and I’ll make use of it, and write my preface”. The end, “Finis,” comes at the close of the fourth. In the sixth volume, as if regretting his tendency to digress, Tristram suggests he will get on with the story from them on “in a tolerable straight line.” He immediately jumps to a travelogue in France. At one point, Tristram notes it is a year since he started writing, and he’s not even a day old in the book. He’s falling ever further behind.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Sterne creates a narrative style which would nearly 200 years later (once it was used by James Joyce and Virgina Woolf) be called the “stream of consciousness”: <em>“Throughout, Tristram’s voice is the only real sense of continuity. A precursor of the stream-of-consciousness style, it runs on the association of ideas, with an idiosyncratic use of dashes to mimic the structure of thought and conversation. The dashes cover every page, varying in length and expressivity but showing the seams between one idea and the next that chips in, usually before the first was fully formed. They give a sense of constant improvisation.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the book was notable for its highly original and bold formatting even by today’s standards: <em>“Sterne was absolutely serious about its physical production. His surviving letters to publishers are exacting in their demands about paper quality, print type and lay out, and he would supervise the printing of each volume. That’s because they involved some very particular visual elements, including three famous disruptions to the text….The first appears midway through volume one, as Tristram narrates the dying moment of Parson Yorick. As the chapter ends, the facing page is simply black, a slab of ink, as is its reverse side. The second is a marbled page found in the third volume. Originally, these were marbled by hand before being stuck into each book. In modern editions, the marbled page is monochrome and uniform, robbing it of its meaning. The idea was that each reader would have a unique design in hand – that everyone was reading the same book, and yet in fact their copy was singular. And the third is a blank page, at the end of the sixth volume, when Tristram introduces Mrs Wadham, and tells the reader to get a pen and “paint her to your own mind – as like your mistress as you can – as unlike your wife as your conscience will let you – ’tis all one to me – please but your own fancy in it.””</em>', 'The best comic novel ever written?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-best-comic-novel-ever-written', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:06:57', '2019-07-11 08:06:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1467', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1468, 1, '2019-07-11 08:06:35', '2019-07-11 08:06:35', 'Author: Thomas Graham\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=38113c1044&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20190521-is-this-the-best-shaggy-dog-story-ever-written</a>)\r\nWritten in the middle of the 18<sup>th</sup> century by Lawrence Stern, an Anglican Parish priest who wanted to become famous, the autobiography of the fictional character Tristram Shandy, “The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman” is a wildly original bestseller which influenced some of the greatest writers of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. The book was a smash hit upon publication. <em>““The first two volumes were wildly popular,”  Judith Hawley, an expert on 18th-Century literature, tells BBC Culture. “So much so that the name Tristram Shandy entered popular culture. There was a lot of branded merchandise; race horses were named after him; lots of imitation novels. It became a marketing phenomenon.””</em>\r\nSo what exactly did Sterne do which marked this books out as one of the most original books ever written?\r\nFirstly, the chronology used in the book is deliberately messed up: <em>“to describe them as a sequence belies the screwy time scheme of the book, which is by turns stretched and squashed, folded back on itself and internally disordered. The author’s preface turns up in the third volume, when Tristram’s mother is giving birth (to him) and the Shandy men have dozed off: “All my heroes are off my hands; – ’tis the first time I have had a moment to spare, – and I’ll make use of it, and write my preface”. The end, “Finis,” comes at the close of the fourth. In the sixth volume, as if regretting his tendency to digress, Tristram suggests he will get on with the story from them on “in a tolerable straight line.” He immediately jumps to a travelogue in France. At one point, Tristram notes it is a year since he started writing, and he’s not even a day old in the book. He’s falling ever further behind.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Sterne creates a narrative style which would nearly 200 years later (once it was used by James Joyce and Virgina Woolf) be called the “stream of consciousness”: <em>“Throughout, Tristram’s voice is the only real sense of continuity. A precursor of the stream-of-consciousness style, it runs on the association of ideas, with an idiosyncratic use of dashes to mimic the structure of thought and conversation. The dashes cover every page, varying in length and expressivity but showing the seams between one idea and the next that chips in, usually before the first was fully formed. They give a sense of constant improvisation.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the book was notable for its highly original and bold formatting even by today’s standards: <em>“Sterne was absolutely serious about its physical production. His surviving letters to publishers are exacting in their demands about paper quality, print type and lay out, and he would supervise the printing of each volume. That’s because they involved some very particular visual elements, including three famous disruptions to the text….The first appears midway through volume one, as Tristram narrates the dying moment of Parson Yorick. As the chapter ends, the facing page is simply black, a slab of ink, as is its reverse side. The second is a marbled page found in the third volume. Originally, these were marbled by hand before being stuck into each book. In modern editions, the marbled page is monochrome and uniform, robbing it of its meaning. The idea was that each reader would have a unique design in hand – that everyone was reading the same book, and yet in fact their copy was singular. And the third is a blank page, at the end of the sixth volume, when Tristram introduces Mrs Wadham, and tells the reader to get a pen and “paint her to your own mind – as like your mistress as you can – as unlike your wife as your conscience will let you – ’tis all one to me – please but your own fancy in it.””</em>', 'The best comic novel ever written?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1467-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:06:35', '2019-07-11 08:06:35', '', 1467, 'http://marcellus.in/1467-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1469, 1, '2019-06-30 08:09:03', '2019-06-30 08:09:03', 'Author: Cecilia D\'Anastasio\r\nSource: Kotaku (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bf4ffefdf&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">https://kotaku.com/for-men-who-hate-talking-on-the-phone-games-keep-frien-1835277944</a>)\r\nMen spend way less talk time on the phone than women is no secret. This piece by Cecilia says why so and furthermore show how men are adapting their traditional ways of bonding with male friends - through activity - in the modern technology driven world - through say, online gaming.  Online gaming has cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. New age millennials nowadays prefer phones for official work and not for bonding with friends. Cecilia refers to her discussion with three researchers to say that \"that they do think that there are specific reasons why men prefer catching up casually over games instead of segmenting out intentional phone time. One of them, Robin Dunbar, is a professor of evolutionary psychology at the University of Oxford and a contributor to the aforementioned study about how adult male friendships decline. Men’s relationships, he said in an email, are “underpinned by ‘doing stuff together.’” Men’s phone calls, he added, are statistically shorter than women’s. “I sometimes joke that this is because the only reason for phoning someone is to say ‘I’ll see you down the bar at 7 o’clock,’” he said.”\r\nCecilia quotes researchers to say that different behaviour of girls &amp; boys in interacting are due to the ways boys and girls are socialized from a young age. Boys are pushed away from family emotional support at young age and are expected to be independent and strong. Online gaming helps men to overcome the challenge of communicating and bonding. Video games aren’t just entertainment—they’re communication technologies in 21s century.\r\n<em>“Any time a friend of Eddie Gill’s calls him on the phone, his first thought is: “Why the fuck are you calling me?” Gill, a physician from Hingham, MA, is 30 years old—around the age when, according to an oft-cited study by Royal Society Open Science, the number of friendships the average man maintains dramatically declines. He is not a phone guy. He’ll talk to his mom, or his grandparents. Other than that, he finds keeping in touch with friends and family to be as difficult as chasing around his seven-month-old, or working with his patients. Like others his age, Gill says that his close friendships from high school and college have atrophied, not only because of the distance but because of their mutual aversion to talking on the phone. “The absolute exception,” said Gill, “are the friends I regularly play games with.”</em>\r\n<em>Put Eddie Gill and one of his friends on the phone, and it would be painful for both parties—stilted conversation, awkward silences, brusque goodbyes. But drop them into a game of Apex Legends and the conversation flows freely.Over Xbox voice chat, Gill gabs with his buddies about the latest Game of Thrones episode, their favorite NFL teams and, sometimes, their personal lives. When his wife was pregnant, he told his friends over a game of Destiny 2. Like over two dozen other people Kotaku spoke to—the vast majority of whom were men—Gill says online gaming has replaced phone calls, and even real-life meetups. It’s cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. “I don’t think I would be as close with these guys if we didn’t hang out online the way we do,” Gill says of his childhood friends with whom he plays Apex Legends. “It would be impossible.”…….. </em>\r\n<em>… “I also think we have raised boys and girls differently and given girls more emotional language tools to use than we give boys,” said Dan Hemmerly-Brown, a 39-year-old technician for a market research firm. Hemmerly-Brown says that if his wife is concerned about something, she’ll call her friend to talk it through. For him, though, it might get brought up over Xbox voice chat with his gaming buddies. Fourteen other men I talked to agreed with the idea that online gaming is a casual way to stave off the loneliness and emotional isolation that can come with getting older.</em>\r\n<em>Chris Richardson, 28, a mechanical engineer, told the story of how his good friend’s wife came up to him at their wedding to tell him that his co-op gaming with her husband while he was out of state on an internship “made him feel so much less lonely because he was living alone in a new town.” Richardson wasn’t likely to have called and checked in. Growing up, when Richardson talked to a childhood friend on the phone, he’d only do it “while playing Super Smash Bros. Melee and listening to Linkin Park… </em>\r\n<em>..“Women tend to be more conversational and more emotionally open than men on average,” Williams said, “and so it’s not surprising that men would seek to be less emotional in any medium, including voice.” While everyone needs emotional support, he says, it can feel awkward for men if “emotional support” is the stated reason for initiating an interaction. “Guys will go drink, play football, play games together. All of that would serve the function of emotional connection, but they would be uncomfortable if you labeled it like that,” he said. On the other hand, Williams said, when his wife hosts her book club, she’s open about the fact that it’s not always about the books. “They have no problem saying that,” he said. “Guys playing games—it’s really no different, except for the awareness of it.” Adam Johns is a clinician and the founder of Game To Grow, a therapy group that uses role-playing games to support social skills and mental health. He said he has noticed that his male therapy clients are more likely to interact over an activity. He has clients who say that they would never talk to their school acquaintances outside of gaming with them online, and have never sought to close the IRL-URL gap……. “</em>', 'For Men Who Hate Talking On The Phone, Games Keep Friendships Alive', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'for-men-who-hate-talking-on-the-phone-games-keep-friendships-alive', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:09:50', '2019-07-11 08:09:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1469', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1470, 1, '2019-07-11 08:09:03', '2019-07-11 08:09:03', 'Author: Cecilia D\'Anastasio\r\nSource: Kotaku (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bf4ffefdf&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">https://kotaku.com/for-men-who-hate-talking-on-the-phone-games-keep-frien-1835277944</a>)\r\nMen spend way less talk time on the phone than women is no secret. This piece by Cecilia says why so and furthermore show how men are adapting their traditional ways of bonding with male friends - through activity - in the modern technology driven world - through say, online gaming.  Online gaming has cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. New age millennials nowadays prefer phones for official work and not for bonding with friends. Cecilia refers to her discussion with three researchers to say that \"that they do think that there are specific reasons why men prefer catching up casually over games instead of segmenting out intentional phone time. One of them, Robin Dunbar, is a professor of evolutionary psychology at the University of Oxford and a contributor to the aforementioned study about how adult male friendships decline. Men’s relationships, he said in an email, are “underpinned by ‘doing stuff together.’” Men’s phone calls, he added, are statistically shorter than women’s. “I sometimes joke that this is because the only reason for phoning someone is to say ‘I’ll see you down the bar at 7 o’clock,’” he said.”\r\nCecilia quotes researchers to say that different behaviour of girls &amp; boys in interacting are due to the ways boys and girls are socialized from a young age. Boys are pushed away from family emotional support at young age and are expected to be independent and strong. Online gaming helps men to overcome the challenge of communicating and bonding. Video games aren’t just entertainment—they’re communication technologies in 21s century.\r\n<em>“Any time a friend of Eddie Gill’s calls him on the phone, his first thought is: “Why the fuck are you calling me?” Gill, a physician from Hingham, MA, is 30 years old—around the age when, according to an oft-cited study by Royal Society Open Science, the number of friendships the average man maintains dramatically declines. He is not a phone guy. He’ll talk to his mom, or his grandparents. Other than that, he finds keeping in touch with friends and family to be as difficult as chasing around his seven-month-old, or working with his patients. Like others his age, Gill says that his close friendships from high school and college have atrophied, not only because of the distance but because of their mutual aversion to talking on the phone. “The absolute exception,” said Gill, “are the friends I regularly play games with.”</em>\r\n<em>Put Eddie Gill and one of his friends on the phone, and it would be painful for both parties—stilted conversation, awkward silences, brusque goodbyes. But drop them into a game of Apex Legends and the conversation flows freely.Over Xbox voice chat, Gill gabs with his buddies about the latest Game of Thrones episode, their favorite NFL teams and, sometimes, their personal lives. When his wife was pregnant, he told his friends over a game of Destiny 2. Like over two dozen other people Kotaku spoke to—the vast majority of whom were men—Gill says online gaming has replaced phone calls, and even real-life meetups. It’s cemented male relationships that might otherwise have evaporated. “I don’t think I would be as close with these guys if we didn’t hang out online the way we do,” Gill says of his childhood friends with whom he plays Apex Legends. “It would be impossible.”…….. </em>\r\n<em>… “I also think we have raised boys and girls differently and given girls more emotional language tools to use than we give boys,” said Dan Hemmerly-Brown, a 39-year-old technician for a market research firm. Hemmerly-Brown says that if his wife is concerned about something, she’ll call her friend to talk it through. For him, though, it might get brought up over Xbox voice chat with his gaming buddies. Fourteen other men I talked to agreed with the idea that online gaming is a casual way to stave off the loneliness and emotional isolation that can come with getting older.</em>\r\n<em>Chris Richardson, 28, a mechanical engineer, told the story of how his good friend’s wife came up to him at their wedding to tell him that his co-op gaming with her husband while he was out of state on an internship “made him feel so much less lonely because he was living alone in a new town.” Richardson wasn’t likely to have called and checked in. Growing up, when Richardson talked to a childhood friend on the phone, he’d only do it “while playing Super Smash Bros. Melee and listening to Linkin Park… </em>\r\n<em>..“Women tend to be more conversational and more emotionally open than men on average,” Williams said, “and so it’s not surprising that men would seek to be less emotional in any medium, including voice.” While everyone needs emotional support, he says, it can feel awkward for men if “emotional support” is the stated reason for initiating an interaction. “Guys will go drink, play football, play games together. All of that would serve the function of emotional connection, but they would be uncomfortable if you labeled it like that,” he said. On the other hand, Williams said, when his wife hosts her book club, she’s open about the fact that it’s not always about the books. “They have no problem saying that,” he said. “Guys playing games—it’s really no different, except for the awareness of it.” Adam Johns is a clinician and the founder of Game To Grow, a therapy group that uses role-playing games to support social skills and mental health. He said he has noticed that his male therapy clients are more likely to interact over an activity. He has clients who say that they would never talk to their school acquaintances outside of gaming with them online, and have never sought to close the IRL-URL gap……. “</em>', 'For Men Who Hate Talking On The Phone, Games Keep Friendships Alive', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1469-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:09:03', '2019-07-11 08:09:03', '', 1469, 'http://marcellus.in/1469-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1471, 1, '2019-06-30 08:10:39', '2019-06-30 08:10:39', 'Author: Zaria Gorvett\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6bbffa8763&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190610-how-modern-life-is-transforming-the-human-skeleton</a>)\r\nThe human body doesn’t cease to fascinate especially its malleability. For centuries, scientists believed that our bones were fixed and that they grow in a predictable way depending upon the genes we inherit from our parents. However, a Dutch scientist‘s investigation of a goat’s skeleton which had one leg missing &amp; one leg deformed by birth changed the myth that our bones are fixed. He found that goat’s bones had started to adapt his body structure – “The bones in his hips and legs were thicker than you would expect, while the ones in his ankles had been stretched out. Finally, his toes and hips were abnormally angled, to accommodate a more upright posture. The goat’s frame had started to look a lot like those of animals which hop.”\r\nOsteobiography – literally “the biography of bones” – involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. Research shows that men in 16<sup>th</sup>/17<sup>th</sup> century were very strong and the reason men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work. Zaria refers to a health scientist’s work to highlight more recent developments in the human skeleton - a spike-like feature found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck and attributes it to the amount of time spent on smartphones. Furthermore, she cites, Christiane Scheffler’s work which shows that children’s skeletons are becoming more &amp; more fragile each year and suggests a straightforward adaptation to modern life - since it doesn’t make sense to grow bone that you don’t need.\r\n“<em>…So what will future archaeologists make of our skeletons, when they examine them from their spaceships? If we’re not careful, they’ll reveal unhealthy diets, staggering levels of inactivity, and a morbid attachment to technology. Perhaps it’s best to be cremated.”</em>\r\n<em>“Today it’s an established fact that our skeletons are surprisingly malleable. The pure white remains displayed in museums may seem solid and inert, but the bones beneath our flesh are very much alive – they’re actually pink with blood vessels – and they’re constantly being broken down and rebuilt. So although each person’s skeleton develops according to a rough template set out in their DNA, it is then tailored to accommodate the unique stresses of their life. This has led to a discipline known as “osteobiography\" – literally “the biography of bones” – which involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. It relies on the fact that certain activities, such as walking on two legs, leave a predictable signature behind, such as sturdier hip bones. And from the discovery of a curious spiky growth on the back of many people’s skulls to the realisation that our jaws are getting smaller, to the enigmatic finding that German youths currently have narrower elbows than ever before, it’s clear that modern life is having an impact on our bones.  </em>\r\n<em>For an example of how osteobiography works, take the mystery of the “strong men” of Guam and the Mariana Islands. It began with the discovery of a male skeleton on the island of Tinian, which lies 1,600 miles (2,560km) east of the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean, in 1924. The remains were dated to the 16th or 17th Century, and they were positively gigantic. The man’s skull, arm bones, collarbones, and the bones of his lower legs suggested that he had been immensely strong and unusually tall. The finding slotted in nicely with local legends of enormous ancient rulers, who had been capable of truly heroic physical feats. Archaeologists called him Taotao Tagga – “man of Tagga” – after the island’s famous mythological chief Taga, who was renowned for his super-human strength. As other graves were discovered, it became clear that the first skeleton was no anomaly; in fact as well as fiction, Tinian and the surrounding islands had been home to a race of extraordinarily brawny men. But where had they got their strength from? …..This was no mysterious race of muscular giants; the men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work.</em>\r\n<em>If, in the future, the same technique were used to piece together how people lived in 2019, the scientists would find characteristic changes in our skeletons that reflect our modern lifestyles. “I have been a clinician for 20 years, and only in the last decade, increasingly I have been discovering that my patients have this growth on the skull,” says David Shahar, a health scientist at the University of The Sunshine Coast, Australia. The spike-like feature, also known as the “external occipital protuberance” is found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck. If you have one, it’s likely that you will be able to feel it with your fingers – or if you’re bald, it may even be visible from behind.</em>\r\n<em>…Shahar thinks the spike explosion is down to modern technology, particularly our recent obsession with smartphones and tablets. As we hunch over them, we crane our necks and hold our heads forward. This is problematic, because the average head weighs around 10 pounds (4.5 kg) – about as much as a large watermelon.</em>\r\n<em>When we’re sitting upright, these hefty objects are balanced neatly on top of our spines. But as we lean forwards to pore over famous dogs on social media, our necks must strain to hold them in place. Doctors call the pain this can cause “text neck”. Shahar thinks the spikes form because the hunched posture creates extra pressure on the place where the neck muscles attach to the skull – and the body responds by laying down fresh layers of bone. These help the skull to cope with the extra stress, by spreading the weight over a wider area. Of course, bad posture was not invented in the 21st Century – people have always found something to hunch over. So why didn’t we get the skull protuberances from books? One possibility is down to the sheer amount of time that we currently spend on our phones, versus how long a person would previously have spent reading. For example, even in 1973, well before most modern hand-held distractions were invented,  the average American typically read for about two hours each day. In contrast, today people are spending nearly double that time on their phones. Indeed, for Shahar, the biggest surprise was just how large the spikes were. Before his study, the most recent research was conducted at an osteological lab in India, in 2012. That’s a lab specialising entirely in bones – as you can imagine, they have quite a lot of skulls – but the doctor there only found one with the growth. It measured 8 mm, which is so small, it wouldn’t even have been included in Shahar’s results. “And he thought it was significant enough to write a whole paper about it!” he says. In his own study, the most substantial growths were 30mm long.”</em>', 'How modern life is transforming the human skeleton', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-modern-life-is-transforming-the-human-skeleton', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:16:34', '2019-07-11 08:16:34', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1471', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1472, 1, '2019-07-11 08:10:39', '2019-07-11 08:10:39', 'Author: Zaria Gorvett\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6bbffa8763&amp;e=a90b83e5c4\">http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190610-how-modern-life-is-transforming-the-human-skeleton</a>)\r\nThe human body doesn’t cease to fascinate especially its malleability. For centuries, scientists believed that our bones were fixed and that they grow in a predictable way depending upon the genes we inherit from our parents. However, a Dutch scientist‘s investigation of a goat’s skeleton which had one leg missing &amp; one leg deformed by birth changed the myth that our bones are fixed. He found that goat’s bones had started to adapt his body structure – “The bones in his hips and legs were thicker than you would expect, while the ones in his ankles had been stretched out. Finally, his toes and hips were abnormally angled, to accommodate a more upright posture. The goat’s frame had started to look a lot like those of animals which hop.”\r\nOsteobiography – literally “the biography of bones” – involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. Research shows that men in 16<sup>th</sup>/17<sup>th</sup> century were very strong and the reason men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work. Zaria refers to a health scientist’s work to highlight more recent developments in the human skeleton - a spike-like feature found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck and attributes it to the amount of time spent on smartphones. Furthermore, she cites, Christiane Scheffler’s work which shows that children’s skeletons are becoming more &amp; more fragile each year and suggests a straightforward adaptation to modern life - since it doesn’t make sense to grow bone that you don’t need.\r\n“<em>…So what will future archaeologists make of our skeletons, when they examine them from their spaceships? If we’re not careful, they’ll reveal unhealthy diets, staggering levels of inactivity, and a morbid attachment to technology. Perhaps it’s best to be cremated.”</em>\r\n<em>“Today it’s an established fact that our skeletons are surprisingly malleable. The pure white remains displayed in museums may seem solid and inert, but the bones beneath our flesh are very much alive – they’re actually pink with blood vessels – and they’re constantly being broken down and rebuilt. So although each person’s skeleton develops according to a rough template set out in their DNA, it is then tailored to accommodate the unique stresses of their life. This has led to a discipline known as “osteobiography\" – literally “the biography of bones” – which involves looking at a skeleton to find out how its owner lived. It relies on the fact that certain activities, such as walking on two legs, leave a predictable signature behind, such as sturdier hip bones. And from the discovery of a curious spiky growth on the back of many people’s skulls to the realisation that our jaws are getting smaller, to the enigmatic finding that German youths currently have narrower elbows than ever before, it’s clear that modern life is having an impact on our bones.  </em>\r\n<em>For an example of how osteobiography works, take the mystery of the “strong men” of Guam and the Mariana Islands. It began with the discovery of a male skeleton on the island of Tinian, which lies 1,600 miles (2,560km) east of the Philippines in the Pacific Ocean, in 1924. The remains were dated to the 16th or 17th Century, and they were positively gigantic. The man’s skull, arm bones, collarbones, and the bones of his lower legs suggested that he had been immensely strong and unusually tall. The finding slotted in nicely with local legends of enormous ancient rulers, who had been capable of truly heroic physical feats. Archaeologists called him Taotao Tagga – “man of Tagga” – after the island’s famous mythological chief Taga, who was renowned for his super-human strength. As other graves were discovered, it became clear that the first skeleton was no anomaly; in fact as well as fiction, Tinian and the surrounding islands had been home to a race of extraordinarily brawny men. But where had they got their strength from? …..This was no mysterious race of muscular giants; the men achieved their powerful builds by sheer hard work.</em>\r\n<em>If, in the future, the same technique were used to piece together how people lived in 2019, the scientists would find characteristic changes in our skeletons that reflect our modern lifestyles. “I have been a clinician for 20 years, and only in the last decade, increasingly I have been discovering that my patients have this growth on the skull,” says David Shahar, a health scientist at the University of The Sunshine Coast, Australia. The spike-like feature, also known as the “external occipital protuberance” is found at the lower back of the skull, just above the neck. If you have one, it’s likely that you will be able to feel it with your fingers – or if you’re bald, it may even be visible from behind.</em>\r\n<em>…Shahar thinks the spike explosion is down to modern technology, particularly our recent obsession with smartphones and tablets. As we hunch over them, we crane our necks and hold our heads forward. This is problematic, because the average head weighs around 10 pounds (4.5 kg) – about as much as a large watermelon.</em>\r\n<em>When we’re sitting upright, these hefty objects are balanced neatly on top of our spines. But as we lean forwards to pore over famous dogs on social media, our necks must strain to hold them in place. Doctors call the pain this can cause “text neck”. Shahar thinks the spikes form because the hunched posture creates extra pressure on the place where the neck muscles attach to the skull – and the body responds by laying down fresh layers of bone. These help the skull to cope with the extra stress, by spreading the weight over a wider area. Of course, bad posture was not invented in the 21st Century – people have always found something to hunch over. So why didn’t we get the skull protuberances from books? One possibility is down to the sheer amount of time that we currently spend on our phones, versus how long a person would previously have spent reading. For example, even in 1973, well before most modern hand-held distractions were invented,  the average American typically read for about two hours each day. In contrast, today people are spending nearly double that time on their phones. Indeed, for Shahar, the biggest surprise was just how large the spikes were. Before his study, the most recent research was conducted at an osteological lab in India, in 2012. That’s a lab specialising entirely in bones – as you can imagine, they have quite a lot of skulls – but the doctor there only found one with the growth. It measured 8 mm, which is so small, it wouldn’t even have been included in Shahar’s results. “And he thought it was significant enough to write a whole paper about it!” he says. In his own study, the most substantial growths were 30mm long.”</em>', 'How modern life is transforming the human skeleton', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1471-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-11 08:10:39', '2019-07-11 08:10:39', '', 1471, 'http://marcellus.in/1471-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1474, 1, '2019-07-14 16:37:41', '2019-07-14 16:37:41', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Sam Knight</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: New Yorker (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b8c260814e&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/03/how-football-leaks-is-exposing-corruption-in-european-soccer</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Did you know that last season, according to the accounting firm Deloitte, European soccer had revenues of twenty-eight billion dollars, about the same as Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, and the National Football League </span><strong><u>combined</u></strong><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">. European soccer is the most lucrative sports arena in the world and the scale of money on offer is leading to corruption. Now thanks to a Portuguese website called Football Leaks the rest of the world is getting to understand the nature and the scale of the corruption. The site is run by a 30 year old Portuguese man, Rui Pinto, who has been jailed for the way he hacked his way to nearly 90 million documents involving the purchase, sale and transfer of football players.</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> When we read about the transfer of a player from Club X to Club Y, we imagine this to a bilateral contract. The reality is something else:</span>\r\n<em>“The first documents released by Football Leaks related to a controversial investment model known as third-party ownership. One of the ways that clubs make money is by buying and selling players. T.P.O., which originated in Latin America, allows external parties to buy a stake in promising young players, in the hope of profiting from a huge transfer deal one day. (In 2017, the Brazilian striker Neymar was sold by Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain for around a quarter of a billion dollars.) Proponents of T.P.O. describe it as a form of lending, but many fans believe that it gives investors too much control over a club’s roster and the shape of players’ careers, by influencing when and where a player might be traded.</em>\r\n<em>In Portugal, one of the most vehement critics of T.P.O. was Bruno de Carvalho, the president of Sporting Lisbon, who described it as “a monster coming to football.” fifa, soccer’s global governing body, banned the practice in May, 2015. But the contracts that Varela read on Football Leaks showed that Sporting Lisbon had entered into a secret, T.P.O.-like arrangement with an Angolan club named Recreativo da Caála. “It was powerful,” Varela said. “People say one thing but they are doing something completely different.””</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> The nature of the criminal activity which characterises European football is rich and varied:</span>\r\n<em>“The information provided by Pinto has led to the conviction of dozens of top soccer players for tax evasion. It has prompted the Las Vegas police department to investigate an allegation of rape against Ronaldo. It has also revealed likely rule-breaking by Manchester City, the all-conquering champions of the English game, and a plan by Europe’s leading teams to leave their national leagues and form their own competition.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> This New Yorker story is made more complicated and more interesting because the man behind the hacking and leaking of this data is an unemployed Portuguese university student living in Hungary and hacking his way into the accounts of banks and football clubs across Europe.</span>', 'How Football Leaks Is Exposing Corruption in European Soccer', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-football-leaks-is-exposing-corruption-in-european-soccer', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:37:41', '2019-07-14 16:37:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1474', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1475, 1, '2019-07-14 16:37:03', '2019-07-14 16:37:03', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Sam Knight</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: New Yorker (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b8c260814e&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/06/03/how-football-leaks-is-exposing-corruption-in-european-soccer</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Did you know that last season, according to the accounting firm Deloitte, European soccer had revenues of twenty-eight billion dollars, about the same as Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, and the National Football League </span><strong><u>combined</u></strong><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">. European soccer is the most lucrative sports arena in the world and the scale of money on offer is leading to corruption. Now thanks to a Portuguese website called Football Leaks the rest of the world is getting to understand the nature and the scale of the corruption. The site is run by a 30 year old Portuguese man, Rui Pinto, who has been jailed for the way he hacked his way to nearly 90 million documents involving the purchase, sale and transfer of football players.</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> When we read about the transfer of a player from Club X to Club Y, we imagine this to a bilateral contract. The reality is something else:</span>\r\n<em>“The first documents released by Football Leaks related to a controversial investment model known as third-party ownership. One of the ways that clubs make money is by buying and selling players. T.P.O., which originated in Latin America, allows external parties to buy a stake in promising young players, in the hope of profiting from a huge transfer deal one day. (In 2017, the Brazilian striker Neymar was sold by Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain for around a quarter of a billion dollars.) Proponents of T.P.O. describe it as a form of lending, but many fans believe that it gives investors too much control over a club’s roster and the shape of players’ careers, by influencing when and where a player might be traded.</em>\r\n<em>In Portugal, one of the most vehement critics of T.P.O. was Bruno de Carvalho, the president of Sporting Lisbon, who described it as “a monster coming to football.” fifa, soccer’s global governing body, banned the practice in May, 2015. But the contracts that Varela read on Football Leaks showed that Sporting Lisbon had entered into a secret, T.P.O.-like arrangement with an Angolan club named Recreativo da Caála. “It was powerful,” Varela said. “People say one thing but they are doing something completely different.””</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> The nature of the criminal activity which characterises European football is rich and varied:</span>\r\n<em>“The information provided by Pinto has led to the conviction of dozens of top soccer players for tax evasion. It has prompted the Las Vegas police department to investigate an allegation of rape against Ronaldo. It has also revealed likely rule-breaking by Manchester City, the all-conquering champions of the English game, and a plan by Europe’s leading teams to leave their national leagues and form their own competition.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> This New Yorker story is made more complicated and more interesting because the man behind the hacking and leaking of this data is an unemployed Portuguese university student living in Hungary and hacking his way into the accounts of banks and football clubs across Europe.</span>', 'How Football Leaks Is Exposing Corruption in European Soccer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1474-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:37:03', '2019-07-14 16:37:03', '', 1474, 'http://marcellus.in/1474-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1476, 1, '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Arthur C Brooks</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: The Atlantic (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7181be7c44&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/work-peak-professional-decline/590650/</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> It is no secret that age and happiness is linked. However, the relationship between age and happiness is not linear: </span><em>“In wealthier countries, most people’s contentment starts to increase again in their 50s, until age 70 or so. That is where things get less predictable, however. After 70, some people stay steady in happiness; others get happier until death. Others—men in particular—see their happiness plummet. Indeed, depression and suicide rates for men increase after age 75.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So why do some men become unhappy after 70? The answer in one word is irrelevance. </span><em>“In 2007, a team of academic researchers at UCLA and Princeton analyzed data on more than 1,000 older adults. Their findings, published in the Journal of Gerontology, showed that senior citizens who rarely or never “felt useful” were nearly three times as likely as those who frequently felt useful to develop a mild disability, and were more than three times as likely to have died during the course of the study.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Ironically, the more gifted you are, the more painful it seems to be to get older. In fact, elite performers suffer the most when it comes to coming to terms with the ravages of ageing: </span><em>“Why might former elite performers have such a hard time? No academic research has yet proved this, but I strongly suspect that the memory of remarkable ability, if that is the source of one’s self-worth, might, for some, provide an invidious contrast to a later, less remarkable life. “Unhappy is he who depends on success to be happy,” Alex Dias Ribeiro, a former Formula 1 race-car driver, once wrote. “For such a person, the end of a successful career is the end of the line. His destiny is to die of bitterness or to search for more success in other careers and to go on living from success to success until he falls dead. In this case, there will not be life after success.””</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Whilst all of us find it easy to understand the physical decline that elite athletes have to go bear, few of us realise that around us are other professionals who are having to face up to premature decline even though they are only in their 20s and 30s:</span><em> “In some professions, early decline is inescapable. No one expects an Olympic athlete to remain competitive until age 60. But in many physically nondemanding occupations, we implicitly reject the inevitability of decline before very old age…The data are shockingly clear that for most people, in most fields, decline starts earlier than almost anyone thinks.</em>\r\n<em>According to research by Dean Keith Simonton, a professor emeritus of psychology at UC Davis and one of the world’s leading experts on the trajectories of creative careers, success and productivity increase for the first 20 years after the inception of a career, on average. So if you start a career in earnest at 30, expect to do your best work around 50 and go into decline soon after that….Jones has found that the most common age for producing a magnum opus is the late 30s. He has shown that the likelihood of a major discovery increases steadily through one’s 20s and 30s and then declines…When Martin Hill Ortiz, a poet and novelist, collected data on New York Times fiction best sellers from 1960 to 2015, he found that authors were likeliest to reach the No. 1 spot in their 40s and 50s…”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So if decline is inevitable and comes earlier than we think what can we do to prepare for it? </span><em>“….some people have managed their declines well. Consider the case of Johann Sebastian Bach. Born in 1685 to a long line of prominent musicians in central Germany, Bach quickly distinguished himself as a musical genius. In his 65 years, he published more than 1,000 compositions for all the available instrumentations of his day.</em>\r\n<em>Early in his career, Bach was considered an astoundingly gifted organist and improviser. Commissions rolled in; royalty sought him out; young composers emulated his style. He enjoyed real prestige.</em>\r\n<em>But it didn’t last—in no small part because his career was overtaken by musical trends ushered in by, among others, his own son, Carl Philipp Emanuel, known as C.P.E. to the generations that followed. The fifth of Bach’s 20 children, C.P.E. exhibited the musical gifts his father had. He mastered the baroque idiom, but he was more fascinated with a new “classical” style of music, which was taking Europe by storm. As classical music displaced baroque, C.P.E.’s prestige boomed while his father’s music became passé.</em>\r\n<em>Bach easily could have become embittered, like Darwin. Instead, he chose to redesign his life, moving from innovator to instructor. He spent a good deal of his last 10 years writing The Art of Fugue, not a famous or popular work in his time, but one intended to teach the techniques of the baroque to his children and students—and, as unlikely as it seemed at the time, to any future generations that might be interested. In his later years, he lived a quieter life as a teacher and a family man….When Bach fell behind, he reinvented himself as a master instructor…”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So how can we be like Bach?</span><em> “A potential answer lies in the work of the British psychologist Raymond Cattell, who in the early 1940s introduced the concepts of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Cattell defined fluid intelligence as the ability to reason, analyze, and solve novel problems—what we commonly think of as raw intellectual horsepower. Innovators typically have an abundance of fluid intelligence. It is highest relatively early in adulthood and diminishes starting in one’s 30s and 40s….Crystallized intelligence, in contrast, is the ability to use knowledge gained in the past. Think of it as possessing a vast library and understanding how to use it. It is the essence of wisdom. Because crystallized intelligence relies on an accumulating stock of knowledge, it tends to increase through one’s 40s, and does not diminish until very late in life.</em> <em>Careers that rely primarily on fluid intelligence tend to peak early, while those that use more crystallized intelligence peak later. For example, Dean Keith Simonton has found that poets—highly fluid in their creativity—tend to have produced half their lifetime creative output by age 40 or so. Historians—who rely on a crystallized stock of knowledge—don’t reach this milestone until about 60….you can always endeavor to weight your career away from innovation and toward the strengths that persist, or even increase, later in life.</em>\r\n<em>Like what? As Bach demonstrated, teaching is an ability that decays very late in life, a principal exception to the general pattern of professional decline over time. A study in The Journal of Higher Education showed that the oldest college professors in disciplines requiring a large store of fixed knowledge, specifically the humanities, tended to get evaluated most positively by students. This probably explains the professional longevity of college professors, three-quarters of whom plan to retire after age 65—more than half of them after 70, and some 15 percent of them after 80.”</em>', 'Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'your-professional-decline-is-coming-much-sooner-than-you-think', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1476', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1477, 1, '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Arthur C Brooks</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: The Atlantic (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7181be7c44&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/07/work-peak-professional-decline/590650/</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> It is no secret that age and happiness is linked. However, the relationship between age and happiness is not linear: </span><em>“In wealthier countries, most people’s contentment starts to increase again in their 50s, until age 70 or so. That is where things get less predictable, however. After 70, some people stay steady in happiness; others get happier until death. Others—men in particular—see their happiness plummet. Indeed, depression and suicide rates for men increase after age 75.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So why do some men become unhappy after 70? The answer in one word is irrelevance. </span><em>“In 2007, a team of academic researchers at UCLA and Princeton analyzed data on more than 1,000 older adults. Their findings, published in the Journal of Gerontology, showed that senior citizens who rarely or never “felt useful” were nearly three times as likely as those who frequently felt useful to develop a mild disability, and were more than three times as likely to have died during the course of the study.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Ironically, the more gifted you are, the more painful it seems to be to get older. In fact, elite performers suffer the most when it comes to coming to terms with the ravages of ageing: </span><em>“Why might former elite performers have such a hard time? No academic research has yet proved this, but I strongly suspect that the memory of remarkable ability, if that is the source of one’s self-worth, might, for some, provide an invidious contrast to a later, less remarkable life. “Unhappy is he who depends on success to be happy,” Alex Dias Ribeiro, a former Formula 1 race-car driver, once wrote. “For such a person, the end of a successful career is the end of the line. His destiny is to die of bitterness or to search for more success in other careers and to go on living from success to success until he falls dead. In this case, there will not be life after success.””</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Whilst all of us find it easy to understand the physical decline that elite athletes have to go bear, few of us realise that around us are other professionals who are having to face up to premature decline even though they are only in their 20s and 30s:</span><em> “In some professions, early decline is inescapable. No one expects an Olympic athlete to remain competitive until age 60. But in many physically nondemanding occupations, we implicitly reject the inevitability of decline before very old age…The data are shockingly clear that for most people, in most fields, decline starts earlier than almost anyone thinks.</em>\r\n<em>According to research by Dean Keith Simonton, a professor emeritus of psychology at UC Davis and one of the world’s leading experts on the trajectories of creative careers, success and productivity increase for the first 20 years after the inception of a career, on average. So if you start a career in earnest at 30, expect to do your best work around 50 and go into decline soon after that….Jones has found that the most common age for producing a magnum opus is the late 30s. He has shown that the likelihood of a major discovery increases steadily through one’s 20s and 30s and then declines…When Martin Hill Ortiz, a poet and novelist, collected data on New York Times fiction best sellers from 1960 to 2015, he found that authors were likeliest to reach the No. 1 spot in their 40s and 50s…”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So if decline is inevitable and comes earlier than we think what can we do to prepare for it? </span><em>“….some people have managed their declines well. Consider the case of Johann Sebastian Bach. Born in 1685 to a long line of prominent musicians in central Germany, Bach quickly distinguished himself as a musical genius. In his 65 years, he published more than 1,000 compositions for all the available instrumentations of his day.</em>\r\n<em>Early in his career, Bach was considered an astoundingly gifted organist and improviser. Commissions rolled in; royalty sought him out; young composers emulated his style. He enjoyed real prestige.</em>\r\n<em>But it didn’t last—in no small part because his career was overtaken by musical trends ushered in by, among others, his own son, Carl Philipp Emanuel, known as C.P.E. to the generations that followed. The fifth of Bach’s 20 children, C.P.E. exhibited the musical gifts his father had. He mastered the baroque idiom, but he was more fascinated with a new “classical” style of music, which was taking Europe by storm. As classical music displaced baroque, C.P.E.’s prestige boomed while his father’s music became passé.</em>\r\n<em>Bach easily could have become embittered, like Darwin. Instead, he chose to redesign his life, moving from innovator to instructor. He spent a good deal of his last 10 years writing The Art of Fugue, not a famous or popular work in his time, but one intended to teach the techniques of the baroque to his children and students—and, as unlikely as it seemed at the time, to any future generations that might be interested. In his later years, he lived a quieter life as a teacher and a family man….When Bach fell behind, he reinvented himself as a master instructor…”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> So how can we be like Bach?</span><em> “A potential answer lies in the work of the British psychologist Raymond Cattell, who in the early 1940s introduced the concepts of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Cattell defined fluid intelligence as the ability to reason, analyze, and solve novel problems—what we commonly think of as raw intellectual horsepower. Innovators typically have an abundance of fluid intelligence. It is highest relatively early in adulthood and diminishes starting in one’s 30s and 40s….Crystallized intelligence, in contrast, is the ability to use knowledge gained in the past. Think of it as possessing a vast library and understanding how to use it. It is the essence of wisdom. Because crystallized intelligence relies on an accumulating stock of knowledge, it tends to increase through one’s 40s, and does not diminish until very late in life.</em> <em>Careers that rely primarily on fluid intelligence tend to peak early, while those that use more crystallized intelligence peak later. For example, Dean Keith Simonton has found that poets—highly fluid in their creativity—tend to have produced half their lifetime creative output by age 40 or so. Historians—who rely on a crystallized stock of knowledge—don’t reach this milestone until about 60….you can always endeavor to weight your career away from innovation and toward the strengths that persist, or even increase, later in life.</em>\r\n<em>Like what? As Bach demonstrated, teaching is an ability that decays very late in life, a principal exception to the general pattern of professional decline over time. A study in The Journal of Higher Education showed that the oldest college professors in disciplines requiring a large store of fixed knowledge, specifically the humanities, tended to get evaluated most positively by students. This probably explains the professional longevity of college professors, three-quarters of whom plan to retire after age 65—more than half of them after 70, and some 15 percent of them after 80.”</em>', 'Your Professional Decline Is Coming (Much) Sooner Than You Think', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1476-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '2019-07-14 16:39:18', '', 1476, 'http://marcellus.in/1476-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1478, 1, '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: David Epstein</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: The Guardian (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=572b5c55f6&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jul/12/generalise-dont-specialise-why-focusing-too-narrowly-is-bad-for-us</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> In his best-selling book </span><em>The Outliers</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">, Malcolm Gladwell talked about the power of singular focus and specialised training over </span><em>\'10,000 hours\'</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> as a means to achieve success in any given field. David Epstein, (who also authored The Sports Gene) in his new book </span><em>‘Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialised World’</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> questions this thesis and turns it on its head through research shows that there are as many merits to stay a generalist, especially in the growing up years sampling a diverse set of disciplines, which in later years actually helps excel in the chosen area of specialisation. In this piece in The Guardian, which is an adaptation of his book, Epstein demonstrates how whilst Tiger Woods has been the poster boy of ultra-specialised training and dedication from a very young age, exhibits for the generalist camp include none other than Roger Federer, who played a variety of sports until his late teens before going onto focus on tennis and become the legend that he is now. He gives a slew of other examples of multi-disciplinarians making it big, such as the program that backed the British Olympics team of 2012, American quarterbacks Tom Brady and Nick Foles, Czech athelete Ester Ledecka who actually won golds in two different events (skiing and snowboarding) in the same winter Olympics, Ukrainian boxer Vasyl Lomachenko, the Jazz legend Duke Ellington and the award winning mathematician Maryam Mirzakhani.</span>\r\n<em>“Elite athletes at the peak of their abilities do spend more time on deliberate practice than their near-elite peers. But scientists have found that, at a younger age, those who go on to become elite athletes typically devote less time to deliberate practice in the activity in which they will eventually become experts. Instead, they undergo what researchers call a “sampling period”. They play a variety of sports, usually in an unstructured or lightly structured environment; they gain a range of physical proficiencies from which they can draw; they learn about their own abilities and proclivities; and only later do they focus in on one area. The title of one study of athletes in individual sports proclaimed “late specialisation” as “the key to success”; another was titled Making It to the Top in Team Sports: Start Later, Intensify, and Be Determined.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Epstein says that specialisation and narrowing the focus can have negative consequences and gives examples of specialized doctors who wears same lens for all their patients.</span>\r\n<em>“Specialised healthcare professionals have developed their own versions of the “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail” problem. Interventional cardiologists have grown so used to treating chest pain with stents – metal tubes that pry open blood vessels – that they do so reflexively even in cases where voluminous research has proven that they are inappropriate or dangerous. A recent study found that cardiac patients were less likely to die if they were admitted during a national cardiology meeting, when thousands of cardiologists were away; the researchers suggested it could be because common treatments of dubious effect were less likely to be performed. Arturo Casadevall, an internationally renowned scientist, believes that increasing specialisation has created a “system of parallel trenches” in the quest for innovation. Everyone is digging deeper into their own trench and rarely standing up to look in the next trench over, even if the solution to their problem happens to reside there. Casadevall is taking it upon himself to attempt to despecialise the training of future researchers; he hopes that eventually it will spread to training in every field. He profited immensely from cultivating range in his own life, even as he was pushed to specialise. And now he is broadening his purview again, designing a training programme in an attempt to give others a chance to deviate from the Tiger path. “This may be the most important thing I will ever do in my life,” he told me.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Epstein adds that delayed specialization and advantages of breath are enormous as it gives a person ability to view things in holistic manner.</span>\r\n<em>“The challenge we all face is how to maintain the benefits of breadth, diverse experience, interdisciplinary thinking and delayed concentration in a world that increasingly incentivises or even demands hyperspecialisation. While it is true that there are areas that require individuals with Tiger’s precocity and clarity of purpose, as complexity increases – as technology spins the world into vaster webs of interconnected systems in which each individual only sees a small part – we also need more Rogers: people who start broad and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives while they progress. People with range.”</em>', 'Generalise, don\'t specialise: why focusing too narrowly is bad for us', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'generalise-dont-specialise-why-focusing-too-narrowly-is-bad-for-us', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:45:53', '2019-07-14 16:45:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1478', 0, 'story', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1479, 1, '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: David Epstein</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: The Guardian (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=572b5c55f6&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jul/12/generalise-dont-specialise-why-focusing-too-narrowly-is-bad-for-us</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> In his best-selling book </span><em>The Outliers</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">, Malcolm Gladwell talked about the power of singular focus and specialised training over </span><em>\'10,000 hours\'</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> as a means to achieve success in any given field. David Epstein, (who also authored The Sports Gene) in his new book </span><em>‘Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialised World’</em><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> questions this thesis and turns it on its head through research shows that there are as many merits to stay a generalist, especially in the growing up years sampling a diverse set of disciplines, which in later years actually helps excel in the chosen area of specialisation. In this piece in The Guardian, which is an adaptation of his book, Epstein demonstrates how whilst Tiger Woods has been the poster boy of ultra-specialised training and dedication from a very young age, exhibits for the generalist camp include none other than Roger Federer, who played a variety of sports until his late teens before going onto focus on tennis and become the legend that he is now. He gives a slew of other examples of multi-disciplinarians making it big, such as the program that backed the British Olympics team of 2012, American quarterbacks Tom Brady and Nick Foles, Czech athelete Ester Ledecka who actually won golds in two different events (skiing and snowboarding) in the same winter Olympics, Ukrainian boxer Vasyl Lomachenko, the Jazz legend Duke Ellington and the award winning mathematician Maryam Mirzakhani.</span>\r\n<em>“Elite athletes at the peak of their abilities do spend more time on deliberate practice than their near-elite peers. But scientists have found that, at a younger age, those who go on to become elite athletes typically devote less time to deliberate practice in the activity in which they will eventually become experts. Instead, they undergo what researchers call a “sampling period”. They play a variety of sports, usually in an unstructured or lightly structured environment; they gain a range of physical proficiencies from which they can draw; they learn about their own abilities and proclivities; and only later do they focus in on one area. The title of one study of athletes in individual sports proclaimed “late specialisation” as “the key to success”; another was titled Making It to the Top in Team Sports: Start Later, Intensify, and Be Determined.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Epstein says that specialisation and narrowing the focus can have negative consequences and gives examples of specialized doctors who wears same lens for all their patients.</span>\r\n<em>“Specialised healthcare professionals have developed their own versions of the “if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail” problem. Interventional cardiologists have grown so used to treating chest pain with stents – metal tubes that pry open blood vessels – that they do so reflexively even in cases where voluminous research has proven that they are inappropriate or dangerous. A recent study found that cardiac patients were less likely to die if they were admitted during a national cardiology meeting, when thousands of cardiologists were away; the researchers suggested it could be because common treatments of dubious effect were less likely to be performed. Arturo Casadevall, an internationally renowned scientist, believes that increasing specialisation has created a “system of parallel trenches” in the quest for innovation. Everyone is digging deeper into their own trench and rarely standing up to look in the next trench over, even if the solution to their problem happens to reside there. Casadevall is taking it upon himself to attempt to despecialise the training of future researchers; he hopes that eventually it will spread to training in every field. He profited immensely from cultivating range in his own life, even as he was pushed to specialise. And now he is broadening his purview again, designing a training programme in an attempt to give others a chance to deviate from the Tiger path. “This may be the most important thing I will ever do in my life,” he told me.”</em>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Epstein adds that delayed specialization and advantages of breath are enormous as it gives a person ability to view things in holistic manner.</span>\r\n<em>“The challenge we all face is how to maintain the benefits of breadth, diverse experience, interdisciplinary thinking and delayed concentration in a world that increasingly incentivises or even demands hyperspecialisation. While it is true that there are areas that require individuals with Tiger’s precocity and clarity of purpose, as complexity increases – as technology spins the world into vaster webs of interconnected systems in which each individual only sees a small part – we also need more Rogers: people who start broad and embrace diverse experiences and perspectives while they progress. People with range.”</em>', 'Generalise, don\'t specialise: why focusing too narrowly is bad for us', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1478-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '2019-07-14 16:41:27', '', 1478, 'http://marcellus.in/1478-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1480, 1, '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: John Gapper</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: FT (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=98736ed03d&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.ft.com/content/4ba8c746-7bc4-11e9-8b5c-33d0560f039c</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<strong>Only 22% of Searches on Amazon Include a Brand Name</strong>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Author: Juozas \"Joe\" Kaziukėnas</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Market Place Pulse (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6a9e3dc531&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/only-22-of-searches-on-amazon-include-a-brand-name</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> John Kay, a British economist in his brilliant book on corporate strategy – “The Foundations of Corporate Success” cites among the most sustainable sources of competitive advantages as Brand, Architecture (external and internal networks), Strategic Assets (location, licenses, etc) and Innovation (the least sustainable of them all). Investors, including the legendary Warren Buffet look for companies with such enduring ‘moats’ whilst making their investment decisions. However, increasingly ‘Brand’ as a sustainable moat is being threatened and questioned not least because of the recent Kraft debacle, a Buffet investment in itself. We feature twin articles emerging in different places this week. First, John Gapper of the FT using the Kraft context, in this succinct piece, takes a shot at explaining why the churn rate in the world’s top brands is rising. He ascribes three key reasons:</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             globalisation (brands from emerging economies such as China are going global threatening incumbents),</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             technology (recently built brands such as Amazon, Google are from the tech world which naturally lends itself to obsolescence) and</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             generational change (the millenials’ consumption preferences is not only vastly different from its previous generations but also changes much quicker than any of the preceding generations).</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Second, Joe Kaziukenas, the founder of Market Place Pulse talks about how among the 100,000 most popular searches on Amazon, only 22% include a brand name. Consumers are increasingly searching for generics “Running shoes for women” as opposed to Nike or Puma and as he cites in the article “AA batteries” rather than “Duracell”, which has made Amazon’s inhouse brand AmazonBasics the largest selling brand for batteries. Similarly, in the Kraft context, one can’t ignore the impact of Costco and Walmart’s private labels gaining share displacing incumbent brands either. Perhaps, John Gapper should have had a fourth bullet in his list of reasons for the decline in brands.</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> At Marcellus, we are wary that brands from a consumers’ perspective is different from that of an investor. For eg, Asian Paints’ success over the past 70yrs is often ascribed to its brand strength. However, research on Asian Paints as elaborated by our colleague Saurabh Mukherjea, in his book - ‘The Unusual Billionnaires’, suggests something else. Indeed, we find John Kay’s ‘Architecture’ as a far more enduring moat. Understanding a company’s ‘Architecture’ or what our fund manager, Rakshit Ranjan prefers to refer as ‘the DNA of the company’, involves looking at companies from the inside-out, often requiring interviewing several people over months on end, including customers, suppliers, ex-employees and other parts of the company’s ecosystem. How these various entities interact with the firm, their incentives and systems and processes that binds them is a far enriching experience in terms of understanding sustainable moats and often not well understood by the market (due to the sheer grind involved in the process) and hence not reflected in the price.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'China and new tech generation shake old notions of good branding', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'china-and-new-tech-generation-shake-old-notions-of-good-branding', '', '', '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1480', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1481, 1, '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: John Gapper</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: FT (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=98736ed03d&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.ft.com/content/4ba8c746-7bc4-11e9-8b5c-33d0560f039c</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<strong>Only 22% of Searches on Amazon Include a Brand Name</strong>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Author: Juozas \"Joe\" Kaziukėnas</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Market Place Pulse (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6a9e3dc531&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/only-22-of-searches-on-amazon-include-a-brand-name</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> John Kay, a British economist in his brilliant book on corporate strategy – “The Foundations of Corporate Success” cites among the most sustainable sources of competitive advantages as Brand, Architecture (external and internal networks), Strategic Assets (location, licenses, etc) and Innovation (the least sustainable of them all). Investors, including the legendary Warren Buffet look for companies with such enduring ‘moats’ whilst making their investment decisions. However, increasingly ‘Brand’ as a sustainable moat is being threatened and questioned not least because of the recent Kraft debacle, a Buffet investment in itself. We feature twin articles emerging in different places this week. First, John Gapper of the FT using the Kraft context, in this succinct piece, takes a shot at explaining why the churn rate in the world’s top brands is rising. He ascribes three key reasons:</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             globalisation (brands from emerging economies such as China are going global threatening incumbents),</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             technology (recently built brands such as Amazon, Google are from the tech world which naturally lends itself to obsolescence) and</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             generational change (the millenials’ consumption preferences is not only vastly different from its previous generations but also changes much quicker than any of the preceding generations).</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Second, Joe Kaziukenas, the founder of Market Place Pulse talks about how among the 100,000 most popular searches on Amazon, only 22% include a brand name. Consumers are increasingly searching for generics “Running shoes for women” as opposed to Nike or Puma and as he cites in the article “AA batteries” rather than “Duracell”, which has made Amazon’s inhouse brand AmazonBasics the largest selling brand for batteries. Similarly, in the Kraft context, one can’t ignore the impact of Costco and Walmart’s private labels gaining share displacing incumbent brands either. Perhaps, John Gapper should have had a fourth bullet in his list of reasons for the decline in brands.</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> At Marcellus, we are wary that brands from a consumers’ perspective is different from that of an investor. For eg, Asian Paints’ success over the past 70yrs is often ascribed to its brand strength. However, research on Asian Paints as elaborated by our colleague Saurabh Mukherjea, in his book - ‘The Unusual Billionnaires’, suggests something else. Indeed, we find John Kay’s ‘Architecture’ as a far more enduring moat. Understanding a company’s ‘Architecture’ or what our fund manager, Rakshit Ranjan prefers to refer as ‘the DNA of the company’, involves looking at companies from the inside-out, often requiring interviewing several people over months on end, including customers, suppliers, ex-employees and other parts of the company’s ecosystem. How these various entities interact with the firm, their incentives and systems and processes that binds them is a far enriching experience in terms of understanding sustainable moats and often not well understood by the market (due to the sheer grind involved in the process) and hence not reflected in the price.</span>', 'China and new tech generation shake old notions of good branding', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1480-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '2019-07-14 16:48:05', '', 1480, 'http://marcellus.in/1480-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1482, 1, '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Guy Vidra</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Collaborative Fund (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=43d0e1ed42&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/going-the-distance/</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> In 3L-3S, we have frequently featured The Collaborative Fund’s Morgan Housel for his lucid writing and clarity of thought. In this edition, we pick a blog from Morgan’s colleague Guy Vidra – a piece we HAD to feature in 3L-3S. Not least because for a business in its first year, we at Marcellus can relate to every bit of this essay but also the context of boxing and its connection with Marcellus. For those who may not know the background, you can read our blog </span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3ad433a320&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">here</a>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Vidra talks about three things that are common to boxing and building a business from his experiences from boxing for a workout and looking after startups as part of his job – Presence (or Focus), Stamina and Fear. There are some gems for insights in here including the opening quote -</span><em> “A champion is someone who gets up when he can’t.” – Jack Dempsey</em>\r\n<em>“I first stepped into a boxing gym six years ago. I wanted a fun and engaging workout, and someone I trust suggested it to me. Well, I got the fun and engaging part in spades. What I did not expect were lessons I apply to my professional life.Three things are a constant in the ring: presence, stamina, and fear.</em>\r\n<em>I think about these things frequently in my role as Operating Partner at Collaborative. In my twenty years of operating, I’ve experienced how presence, stamina, and fear impacted me and those around me. I also see it often when it comes to the challenges our founders face as they’re building a business.</em>\r\n<em>Presence</em>\r\n<em>When someone is trying to hit you – often pretty damned hard – your mind is not wandering. You aren’t thinking about the emails lingering in your inbox. You are, existentially, present and focused. If you’re like me, your default state at work might consist of skitting between one task and another, phone in-hand, pecking away at it while your colleagues (or clients) are mid-sentence. The really tough stuff at work, however, requires presence and focus. It may be a gnarly technical issue, a hard budgeting decision, or a difficult conversation with someone on the team. The best leaders are able to put aside distractions and focus on what matters most. This requires ruthless prioritization and self-control, but a sharp focus on the most meaningful issues is the only way to drive real change.</em>\r\n<em>Stamina</em>\r\n<em>Boxers love the jump-rope. We use them to warm up and to set the stage for what we call “active rest,” which helps build stamina. There is no resting in boxing because when you’re in the ring, and you are absolutely exhausted, unfortunately you can’t sit down and take a minute. Pacing yourself, understanding how to “rest,” and pushing through when you just want to give up – that’s what matters. Stamina is one of the most underappreciated qualities necessary in building a business. We are constantly reading stories of unicorn rounds, monster IPOs, and we celebrate invincible-seeming founders and CEOs. The reality is that those leaders are human. They have the same anxieties and fears we have. I promise you, they went through many more “downs” than “ups” in the (much longer than you imagine) story of their success. And, there are many more failures than there are successes. What matters is lifting yourself up when you feel like you can’t. There is no better indicator of future success than resilience, determination, and stamina.</em>\r\n<em>Fear</em>\r\n<em>I thought I knew what it meant to be afraid. I grew up in New York City in the 1980s. It wasn’t a war zone, or a third world nation. I was then, and still remain today, privileged. But it was a different time and the city was not a very safe place. I was robbed growing up… twice. The memory of that experience is nothing compared to the sheer terror I felt the first time I was in the ring and someone came barreling at me. It was a blur of sweat, spit, leather, and blood. Every cell in my body seemed to scream out: “RUN!” The reaction was physical. My mind and my body worked in self-preservational ways to accelerate my heart rate, leading to rapid breathing, and an almost out-of-body experience. Over time, I taught myself to control my mind and my body. I had to get comfortable with the fear. I had to embrace it. As one of my first trainers told me, “boxing is like swimming. If you get into the pool you’re going to get wet. If you get into the ring, you’re going to get hit.”</em>\r\n<em>We rarely talk about fear in the context of business. But, it’s there. The biggest mistakes I’ve made in my career stemmed from fear; fear of losing my job, fear of going against the tide, fear of conflict. Dreading a conversation with your investors? Wishing you didn’t have to fire your co-founder, your friend? Can’t sleep because you know the all-hands tomorrow is when you tell everyone about the layoffs? We don’t talk about it, but fear creates the loneliest and toughest times for most CEOs. When the fear comes barreling at you, and your heart is racing, and there’s no other option, you can run away and avoid things, or you can take a deep breath, relax, and embrace it.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Going The Distance', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'going-the-distance', '', '', '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1482', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1483, 1, '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Guy Vidra</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Collaborative Fund (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=43d0e1ed42&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/going-the-distance/</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> In 3L-3S, we have frequently featured The Collaborative Fund’s Morgan Housel for his lucid writing and clarity of thought. In this edition, we pick a blog from Morgan’s colleague Guy Vidra – a piece we HAD to feature in 3L-3S. Not least because for a business in its first year, we at Marcellus can relate to every bit of this essay but also the context of boxing and its connection with Marcellus. For those who may not know the background, you can read our blog </span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3ad433a320&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">here</a>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Vidra talks about three things that are common to boxing and building a business from his experiences from boxing for a workout and looking after startups as part of his job – Presence (or Focus), Stamina and Fear. There are some gems for insights in here including the opening quote -</span><em> “A champion is someone who gets up when he can’t.” – Jack Dempsey</em>\r\n<em>“I first stepped into a boxing gym six years ago. I wanted a fun and engaging workout, and someone I trust suggested it to me. Well, I got the fun and engaging part in spades. What I did not expect were lessons I apply to my professional life.Three things are a constant in the ring: presence, stamina, and fear.</em>\r\n<em>I think about these things frequently in my role as Operating Partner at Collaborative. In my twenty years of operating, I’ve experienced how presence, stamina, and fear impacted me and those around me. I also see it often when it comes to the challenges our founders face as they’re building a business.</em>\r\n<em>Presence</em>\r\n<em>When someone is trying to hit you – often pretty damned hard – your mind is not wandering. You aren’t thinking about the emails lingering in your inbox. You are, existentially, present and focused. If you’re like me, your default state at work might consist of skitting between one task and another, phone in-hand, pecking away at it while your colleagues (or clients) are mid-sentence. The really tough stuff at work, however, requires presence and focus. It may be a gnarly technical issue, a hard budgeting decision, or a difficult conversation with someone on the team. The best leaders are able to put aside distractions and focus on what matters most. This requires ruthless prioritization and self-control, but a sharp focus on the most meaningful issues is the only way to drive real change.</em>\r\n<em>Stamina</em>\r\n<em>Boxers love the jump-rope. We use them to warm up and to set the stage for what we call “active rest,” which helps build stamina. There is no resting in boxing because when you’re in the ring, and you are absolutely exhausted, unfortunately you can’t sit down and take a minute. Pacing yourself, understanding how to “rest,” and pushing through when you just want to give up – that’s what matters. Stamina is one of the most underappreciated qualities necessary in building a business. We are constantly reading stories of unicorn rounds, monster IPOs, and we celebrate invincible-seeming founders and CEOs. The reality is that those leaders are human. They have the same anxieties and fears we have. I promise you, they went through many more “downs” than “ups” in the (much longer than you imagine) story of their success. And, there are many more failures than there are successes. What matters is lifting yourself up when you feel like you can’t. There is no better indicator of future success than resilience, determination, and stamina.</em>\r\n<em>Fear</em>\r\n<em>I thought I knew what it meant to be afraid. I grew up in New York City in the 1980s. It wasn’t a war zone, or a third world nation. I was then, and still remain today, privileged. But it was a different time and the city was not a very safe place. I was robbed growing up… twice. The memory of that experience is nothing compared to the sheer terror I felt the first time I was in the ring and someone came barreling at me. It was a blur of sweat, spit, leather, and blood. Every cell in my body seemed to scream out: “RUN!” The reaction was physical. My mind and my body worked in self-preservational ways to accelerate my heart rate, leading to rapid breathing, and an almost out-of-body experience. Over time, I taught myself to control my mind and my body. I had to get comfortable with the fear. I had to embrace it. As one of my first trainers told me, “boxing is like swimming. If you get into the pool you’re going to get wet. If you get into the ring, you’re going to get hit.”</em>\r\n<em>We rarely talk about fear in the context of business. But, it’s there. The biggest mistakes I’ve made in my career stemmed from fear; fear of losing my job, fear of going against the tide, fear of conflict. Dreading a conversation with your investors? Wishing you didn’t have to fire your co-founder, your friend? Can’t sleep because you know the all-hands tomorrow is when you tell everyone about the layoffs? We don’t talk about it, but fear creates the loneliest and toughest times for most CEOs. When the fear comes barreling at you, and your heart is racing, and there’s no other option, you can run away and avoid things, or you can take a deep breath, relax, and embrace it.”</em>', 'Going The Distance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1482-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '2019-07-14 16:52:22', '', 1482, 'http://marcellus.in/1482-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1484, 1, '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Justin Bachman</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Bloomberg (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a1e7d6a58&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/hedge-funds-are-tracking-private-jets-to-find-the-next-megadeal</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> That hedge funds are always data hungry is not surprising but the new ways they find to satiate their hunger surprises us. Justin Bachman in his article shows how hedge fund managers track private jets to predict the next big M&amp;A in the USA. He gives a recent example of an analyst predicting that Occidental Petroleum Corp. is negotiating deal with Warren Buffett based on company’s aircraft being spotted in Omaha and the prediction turned out to be true.</span>\r\n<em>“In April, a stock research firm told clients that a Gulfstream V owned by Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. had been spotted at an Omaha airport. The immediate speculation was that Occidental executives were negotiating with Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to get financial help in their $38 billion offer for rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Two days later, Buffett announced a $10 billion investment in Occidental.”</em>\r\n<em>A 2018 paper from security researchers at the University of Oxford and Switzerland’s federal Science and Technology department, tracked aircraft from three dozen public companies and identified seven instances of mergers-and-acquisitions activity.</em>\r\n<em>With improvement in technology it is becoming even more easy for anyone to track flight movements. Hedge Fund managers agree that tracking of flight cannot be the primary source to figure out next M&amp;A activity but alternative data is always welcomed. And the way things are moving, it seems unlikely that flying will ever be completely private again.</em>\r\n<em>“If you have a meeting with Warren Buffett in Omaha and you want to keep it a secret, consider driving. The airports are being watched. In April, a stock research firm told clients that a Gulfstream V owned by Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. had been spotted at an Omaha airport. The immediate speculation was that Occidental executives were negotiating with Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to get financial help in their $38 billion offer for rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Two days later, Buffett announced a $10 billion investment in Occidental.</em>\r\n<em>Where there’s a jet, there’s a data trail, and several “alternative data” firms are keeping tabs on private aircraft for hedge funds and other investors. The data on the Occidental plane came from Quandl Inc., which was acquired by Nasdaq Inc. in December. (Bloomberg LP, which publishes Bloomberg Businessweek, provides clients with reports from another company called JetTrack.) There’s some evidence that aircraft-tracking can be used to get an early read on corporate news. A 2018 paper from security researchers at the University of Oxford and Switzerland’s federal Science and Technology department, tracked aircraft from three dozen public companies and identified seven instances of mergers-and-acquisitions activity. “It probably shouldn’t be your prime source of investing information, but as a feeder, as an alert of something else what might be going on, that’s where this work might be useful,” says Matthew Smith, a researcher at Oxford’s computer science department and one of the authors.</em>\r\n<em>Whether that’s enough to give investors an edge is another question; as alternative data becomes more available, it’s more likely to be rapidly reflected in stock prices. At the same time, some owners of private jets are doing their best to get their flights back into stealth mode. Online aviation trackers that focus on commercial traffic, including FlightAware, allow anyone to see the position of thousands of airborne planes, based on in part a raw data feed provided by the Federal Aviation Administration. What’s not visible are 28,000 private craft, from small, single-engine turboprops to large, intercontinental business jets. An FAA policy lets these owners request that their plane’s identities be blocked from public display.</em>\r\n<em>But the FAA isn’t the only data source. Many planes are equipped with a technology called Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B), which transmits an aircraft’s transponder code, call sign, model type, position, and airspeed. As of Jan. 1, 2020, the FAA will mandate that any aircraft flying in most U.S.-controlled airspace be equipped with ADS-B. Anyone with the right antennas can pick up ADS-B data and observe virtually all passing air traffic. A co-op called ADS-B Exchange takes information from a network of antennas around the world and makes it freely available. Such information isn’t useful for only hedge funds. Dictator Alert tracks airplanes registered to or owned by authoritarian leaders—mostly in the Middle East and Africa—into and out of Geneva Airport in Switzerland, and posts the information using a Twitter bot. The service was begun by two journalists and operates with a private ADS-B antenna near the airport.</em>\r\n<em>In the U.S., the National Business Aviation Association has pressed the government for stricter blocking measures. “A businessperson should not have to give up her safety, security, and privacy or business confidentiality just because they get on an airplane,” says NBAA spokesman Dan Hubbard. The association is working with the FAA and others in the aviation industry to develop new tools for more effectively blocking data on private aircraft in the era of ADS-B coverage. “Claims that this information is secret or ‘sensitive’ do not hold water,” ADS-B Exchange says on its website. “Any member of the public with $100 and the ability to order parts from Amazon can receive this data.” Just getting planes’ basic information isn’t enough for someone trying to track them for investing purposes. Figuring out who owns a particular aircraft, or is likely to be flying in it, can be tricky, given the common use of shell companies and foreign registrations. Paid services may task employees with the chore of following a jet’s paper trail as far as possible to suss out which aircraft are worth watching.</em>\r\n<em>It seems unlikely that flying will ever be completely private again. “The technology to track these aircraft is cheap and widely available,” says David White, vice president of business development at Cirium, an aviation data and analytics firm. Even if public data sources mask more data about flights, companies with hedge fund clients could “pick and choose the business hubs” where private aircraft movements would most likely yield cues about corporate activity, White says. “It’s not rocket science, that’s for sure.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. </span><strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Hedge Funds Are Tracking Private Jets to Find the Next Megadeal', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'hedge-funds-are-tracking-private-jets-to-find-the-next-megadeal', '', '', '2019-07-19 11:29:25', '2019-07-19 11:29:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1484', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1485, 1, '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Justin Bachman</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Bloomberg (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2a1e7d6a58&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/hedge-funds-are-tracking-private-jets-to-find-the-next-megadeal</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> That hedge funds are always data hungry is not surprising but the new ways they find to satiate their hunger surprises us. Justin Bachman in his article shows how hedge fund managers track private jets to predict the next big M&amp;A in the USA. He gives a recent example of an analyst predicting that Occidental Petroleum Corp. is negotiating deal with Warren Buffett based on company’s aircraft being spotted in Omaha and the prediction turned out to be true.</span>\r\n<em>“In April, a stock research firm told clients that a Gulfstream V owned by Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. had been spotted at an Omaha airport. The immediate speculation was that Occidental executives were negotiating with Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to get financial help in their $38 billion offer for rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Two days later, Buffett announced a $10 billion investment in Occidental.”</em>\r\n<em>A 2018 paper from security researchers at the University of Oxford and Switzerland’s federal Science and Technology department, tracked aircraft from three dozen public companies and identified seven instances of mergers-and-acquisitions activity.</em>\r\n<em>With improvement in technology it is becoming even more easy for anyone to track flight movements. Hedge Fund managers agree that tracking of flight cannot be the primary source to figure out next M&amp;A activity but alternative data is always welcomed. And the way things are moving, it seems unlikely that flying will ever be completely private again.</em>\r\n<em>“If you have a meeting with Warren Buffett in Omaha and you want to keep it a secret, consider driving. The airports are being watched. In April, a stock research firm told clients that a Gulfstream V owned by Houston-based Occidental Petroleum Corp. had been spotted at an Omaha airport. The immediate speculation was that Occidental executives were negotiating with Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to get financial help in their $38 billion offer for rival Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Two days later, Buffett announced a $10 billion investment in Occidental.</em>\r\n<em>Where there’s a jet, there’s a data trail, and several “alternative data” firms are keeping tabs on private aircraft for hedge funds and other investors. The data on the Occidental plane came from Quandl Inc., which was acquired by Nasdaq Inc. in December. (Bloomberg LP, which publishes Bloomberg Businessweek, provides clients with reports from another company called JetTrack.) There’s some evidence that aircraft-tracking can be used to get an early read on corporate news. A 2018 paper from security researchers at the University of Oxford and Switzerland’s federal Science and Technology department, tracked aircraft from three dozen public companies and identified seven instances of mergers-and-acquisitions activity. “It probably shouldn’t be your prime source of investing information, but as a feeder, as an alert of something else what might be going on, that’s where this work might be useful,” says Matthew Smith, a researcher at Oxford’s computer science department and one of the authors.</em>\r\n<em>Whether that’s enough to give investors an edge is another question; as alternative data becomes more available, it’s more likely to be rapidly reflected in stock prices. At the same time, some owners of private jets are doing their best to get their flights back into stealth mode. Online aviation trackers that focus on commercial traffic, including FlightAware, allow anyone to see the position of thousands of airborne planes, based on in part a raw data feed provided by the Federal Aviation Administration. What’s not visible are 28,000 private craft, from small, single-engine turboprops to large, intercontinental business jets. An FAA policy lets these owners request that their plane’s identities be blocked from public display.</em>\r\n<em>But the FAA isn’t the only data source. Many planes are equipped with a technology called Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B), which transmits an aircraft’s transponder code, call sign, model type, position, and airspeed. As of Jan. 1, 2020, the FAA will mandate that any aircraft flying in most U.S.-controlled airspace be equipped with ADS-B. Anyone with the right antennas can pick up ADS-B data and observe virtually all passing air traffic. A co-op called ADS-B Exchange takes information from a network of antennas around the world and makes it freely available. Such information isn’t useful for only hedge funds. Dictator Alert tracks airplanes registered to or owned by authoritarian leaders—mostly in the Middle East and Africa—into and out of Geneva Airport in Switzerland, and posts the information using a Twitter bot. The service was begun by two journalists and operates with a private ADS-B antenna near the airport.</em>\r\n<em>In the U.S., the National Business Aviation Association has pressed the government for stricter blocking measures. “A businessperson should not have to give up her safety, security, and privacy or business confidentiality just because they get on an airplane,” says NBAA spokesman Dan Hubbard. The association is working with the FAA and others in the aviation industry to develop new tools for more effectively blocking data on private aircraft in the era of ADS-B coverage. “Claims that this information is secret or ‘sensitive’ do not hold water,” ADS-B Exchange says on its website. “Any member of the public with $100 and the ability to order parts from Amazon can receive this data.” Just getting planes’ basic information isn’t enough for someone trying to track them for investing purposes. Figuring out who owns a particular aircraft, or is likely to be flying in it, can be tricky, given the common use of shell companies and foreign registrations. Paid services may task employees with the chore of following a jet’s paper trail as far as possible to suss out which aircraft are worth watching.</em>\r\n<em>It seems unlikely that flying will ever be completely private again. “The technology to track these aircraft is cheap and widely available,” says David White, vice president of business development at Cirium, an aviation data and analytics firm. Even if public data sources mask more data about flights, companies with hedge fund clients could “pick and choose the business hubs” where private aircraft movements would most likely yield cues about corporate activity, White says. “It’s not rocket science, that’s for sure.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. </span><strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Hedge Funds Are Tracking Private Jets to Find the Next Megadeal', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1484-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '2019-07-14 16:55:20', '', 1484, 'http://marcellus.in/1484-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1538, 1, '2019-08-01 06:54:04', '2019-08-01 06:54:04', '<strong>Page’s promoters have used their experience in the Philippines to fortify Page’s moats around: a) product differentiation based on in-house manufacturing in a labour-intensive industry; b) aspirational brand recall using Caucasian models in high-impact advertising campaigns; and c) IT investments and control on the distribution channel to manage a wide spectrum of products. Whilst these moats have helped the firm deliver an exceptional track record, recent moderation in revenue growth momentum has raised investor concerns around the sustainability of healthy fundamentals in future. In this newsletter we highlight why Page’s competitive advantages are sustainable in the long run, and why we believe that the recent headwinds are unlikely to sustain.</strong>\r\n<strong>Performance update</strong>\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1542 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"472\" />\r\n\r\nPage Industries is one of the larger allocations in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP). It’s share price has halved from its all-time high of Rs 36,000 per share achieved on 28<sup>th</sup> August 2018. This calendar year Page Industries has fallen by 28% and has been the weakest performing stock in our portfolio. Given this backdrop, many clients have asked us for our views on Page Industries and why we continue to hold it in our portfolio despite the ongoing weakness in its share price. In this month’s newsletter, we reiterate why we believe Page is a consistent compounder and why we have not reduced exposure to Page in our clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<strong>Innerwear industry’s product characteristics – what do consumers want?</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“One would think that making innerwear isn’t rocket science. And given that innerwear is neither on display (at least not in India) when worn by users or widely spoken about in everyday conversation, the presumption would be that brand can’t possibly be that important. But think about this: comfort in innerwear is much more important than the clothes we wear above them. Innerwear also has to be strong and durable. As if all this wasn’t enough, difference in physiques, weather-related factors, consumer preferences of comfort in India are not entirely similar to those aboard. Consequently, the product design, fit and fabric composition of an undergarment stock keeping unit (SKU) has to be indigenized in order to be successful in India. This is a curse if you get it wrong and a boon if you get it right. If a consumer accepts a particular style and brand, it is highly likely that he will stick to it. Therefore, consistency of product quality and design over a period of time across geographies is critical for a brand to avoid losing a satisfied consumer. Finally, a steady stream of new products keeps distributors and retailers active and interested. Selling the same product year after year does get boring. The ‘feel good’ factor of consumer purchase in innerwear is driven by a combination of fresh introduction of designs across various sub-segments of innerwear, and fresh introduction of colours within existing styles. Very few clothing brands have got all of these factors right in India.”</em> <strong>– from ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ by Saurabh Mukherjea (2016) (see the chapter on Page Industries).</strong>\r\n\r\nPage Industries has the exclusive license to manufacture and sell Jockey branded innerwear and leisurewear (sleepwear / sportswear) products in India. Manufacturing and selling products in this segment broadly has four features:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Utility oriented products</strong>: Utility, in innerwear, gets typically defined by durable, high-quality fabric and a comfortable fit. Successful products sold in the western world cannot be replicated in India because of the difference in weather conditions, physiques and usage habits. Fashion and luxury are not the primary aspects of innerwear consumption.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Loyalty based purchase: </strong>There exists a broad spectrum of loyalty across products of frequent consumption. Customers of personal care products (soaps, face wash, body lotions, etc) feel bored of consuming the same SKU month after month. Hence, they remain open to experimenting with new offerings. However, customers of Maggi Noodles and infant formula milk do not shop-around once they have decided on their preferred SKU. Innerwear consumption is more like Maggi Noodles. Once the customers decide on the brand, style and size which feels most comfortable to them, they stick to the same product until it is readily available and continues to meet their utility criteria.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Labour intensive manufacturing: </strong>Textile is perhaps the most labour intensive industry in India. Moreover, if a manufacturer uses R&amp;D to indigenise product development, the workforce needs to be skillful and trained. Such a manufacturer cannot afford to have high attrition rates and hence outsource labour workforce.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Mom-and-pop hosiery stores: </strong>Mom-and-pop hosiery stores (multi-brand) control the biggest share of innerwear sales in India. Ready availability of a customer’s preferred SKU at these shops is critical for a manufacturer to build loyalty with the customer. Moreover, most of these shops do NOT have a trial room, which further increases the loyalty component of a customer’s purchase.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>What is Page’s offering to the end consumer?</strong>\r\n\r\nPage offers to a consumer, a combination of the following four things:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Product differentiation</strong> around comfort and durability;</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Affordable price points</strong> which are only 20-30% higher than the inferior quality economy products, and are 20-50% cheaper than similar quality products being offered by peers like Benetton, Fruit of the Loom, Hanes etc;</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Aspirational brand</strong> recall; and</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Widespread distribution</strong> with availability across 55,000 multi-brand outlets, large format stores (like Pantaloons, Lifestyle), over 650 exclusive brand outlets and an ecommerce channel (both on aggregator platforms like amazon.in as well as their own website <a href=\"http://www.jockeyindia.com\">www.jockeyindia.com</a>).</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>How is Page different from its competitors?</strong>\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in the chart below, in every aspect of its business – product range, manufacturing, distribution, branding - Page has chosen the more difficult route, which not only adds greater value to the end consumer, but also makes Page’s competitive advantages more sustainable and difficult to replicate.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1543 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image12PNG.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"833\" height=\"521\" />\r\n\r\nFor a deeper understanding of our view on Page’s secret sauce, please read the chapter on Page Industries in our book <em>The Unusual Billionaires (2016)</em>.\r\n\r\n<strong>Page’s consistent historical track record</strong>\r\n\r\nThanks to the strength of the franchise as highlighted above, Page has delivered a very high degree of consistency in healthy fundamentals historically – see charts below. This has also been backed by high and rising efficiencies around labour management, advertising etc.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1544 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"861\" height=\"405\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1545 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image14.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"822\" height=\"437\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1546 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"436\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Headwinds / Investor concerns faced by Page in FY19</strong>\r\n\r\nConcerns faced by investors in Page Industries over the past 12 months have included:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Revenue growth moderated down to 12% in FY19 (vs 24% over FY13-18). Volume growth moderated down to 6% in FY19 (vs 14% over FY13-18). Hence, earnings growth rates moderated down to 13% in FY19 (vs 25% over FY13-18).</li>\r\n 	<li>Van Heusen (part of ABFRL) has reported revenues of Rs 200 crores in innerwear / leisurewear segments in FY19, up from less than Rs 50 crores in FY18.</li>\r\n 	<li>Page stopped reporting segmental volume and revenue growth rates on a quarterly basis. Management states that as Page grows in size and across several segments, such disclosures put the firm at a competitive disadvantage when Page is the only firm in its industry reporting such granularity.</li>\r\n 	<li>Shamir Genomal (son of Mr. Sunder Ashok Genomal) has risen through the ranks within five years, to become the deputy-MD of the firm.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>Why have we not reduced our exposure to Page?</strong>\r\n\r\nBased on our discussions with industry participants (distributors, suppliers, competitors), we believe that the issues faced by Page Industries are related more to the external-environment rather than being Page-specific, and are non-structural in nature because of the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>No market share loss to peers</strong> like Rupa, VIP, Lux, Loveable, Dollar etc. Firstly, market share gains reported by new entrants like Van Heusen have been small (Van-Heusen’s incremental sales in FY19 are less than 5% of Page’s overall sales), and have been achieved on the back of unsustainable practices, such as buying significantly superior quality yarn at expensive prices and then relying on outsourced manufacturing to deliver a product priced at only 5-10% premium price point vs Jockey, offering products to distributors and dealers on a returnable basis, with higher channel margins etc. Secondly, firms like Dollar (unlike Page) have managed to grow their revenues in FY19 at the cost of a substantial increase in their receivable days (i.e. longer credit terms with distributors and wholesalers).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1547 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"822\" height=\"439\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Moderation in industry’s growth rates is more a distribution-channel issue</strong> rather than end-consumer demand issue. The textile industry’s distribution channel has been the worst affected by GST. Working capital finance available to the channel has also been constrained over the past 6-9 months.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>No deterioration visible in the softer aspects of Page’s business</strong> i.e. no issues around succession planning, complacency or talent attrition amongst senior management team. Page continues to make substantial investments in IT to manage the scale of operations and width of SKUs.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Corrective actions underway at Page</strong> – changes made to the terms of trade with the distribution channel; significant thrust on EBO expansion and product portfolio expansion (kidswear, dri-fits etc); IT investments to get in touch with the end consumer.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, we believe that the end consumer demand for Page’s products has moderated by a smaller extent compared to the revenue growth moderation reported by Page Industries over the past 12 months. The channel related issues faced by the textile industry seem likely to be resolved over the next 12 months, and as long as Indian middle-class household consumption growth continues, Page Industries is one of the better positioned players to capitalize on it.\r\n\r\n<strong>What about valuations when it still trades at 51x FY19 (trailing) P/E? </strong>\r\n\r\nThis is a valid question from a short term (less than 2 years of investment horizon) perspective. From a longer term (more than five years) perspective, as highlighted in our previous blogs and newsletters (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/\">Valuing longevity of healthy fundamentals</a>; <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-value-investing-the-indian-challenge/\">Value Investing-The Indian Challenge</a>), the only relevant question to ask is “Will the earnings growth momentum sustain at a healthy level (let’s say more than 20% CAGR) consistently for the next decade or longer?”. If the answer to this question is “NO”, then such a stock is expensive even at half of its current P/E. On the other hand, if the answer to this question is “YES, earnings growth can sustain at 20% CAGR”, then P/E inflation or deflation will be an insignificant contributor towards delivering satisfactory shareholder returns, if invested at the current levels.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1548 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"798\" height=\"207\" />In the short term, any moderation in earnings growth rate of high-growth stocks like Page Industries tends to result in a significant volatility in its share price trajectory. For instance, the chart below shows the 40% drop in its share price witnessed in FY16 after the firm reported only 15%, 21%, 16%, earnings growth YoY in Q1, Q2, Q3 of FY16 <em>(v/s 26%, 22%,29% reported in corresponding period in previous year)</em>  which was also followed by a reduction in the promoter’s shareholding to below 50%.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-1549 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"830\" height=\"428\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Page Industries – Why do we continue holding it in our portfolio', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'page-industries-why-do-we-continue-holding-it-in-our-portfolio', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:57:16', '2020-01-20 10:57:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1538', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(1487, 1, '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: Guy Vidra</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Collaborative Fund (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=43d0e1ed42&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/going-the-distance/</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> In 3L-3S, we have frequently featured The Collaborative Fund’s Morgan Housel for his lucid writing and clarity of thought. In this edition, we pick a blog from Morgan’s colleague Guy Vidra – a piece we HAD to feature in 3L-3S. Not least because for a business in its first year, we at Marcellus can relate to every bit of this essay but also the context of boxing and its connection with Marcellus. For those who may not know the background, you can read our blog </span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3ad433a320&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">here</a>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Vidra talks about three things that are common to boxing and building a business from his experiences from boxing for a workout and looking after startups as part of his job – Presence (or Focus), Stamina and Fear. There are some gems for insights in here including the opening quote -</span><em> “A champion is someone who gets up when he can’t.” – Jack Dempsey</em>\r\n<em>“I first stepped into a boxing gym six years ago. I wanted a fun and engaging workout, and someone I trust suggested it to me. Well, I got the fun and engaging part in spades. What I did not expect were lessons I apply to my professional life.Three things are a constant in the ring: presence, stamina, and fear.</em>\r\n<em>I think about these things frequently in my role as Operating Partner at Collaborative. In my twenty years of operating, I’ve experienced how presence, stamina, and fear impacted me and those around me. I also see it often when it comes to the challenges our founders face as they’re building a business.</em>\r\n<em>Presence</em>\r\n<em>When someone is trying to hit you – often pretty damned hard – your mind is not wandering. You aren’t thinking about the emails lingering in your inbox. You are, existentially, present and focused. If you’re like me, your default state at work might consist of skitting between one task and another, phone in-hand, pecking away at it while your colleagues (or clients) are mid-sentence. The really tough stuff at work, however, requires presence and focus. It may be a gnarly technical issue, a hard budgeting decision, or a difficult conversation with someone on the team. The best leaders are able to put aside distractions and focus on what matters most. This requires ruthless prioritization and self-control, but a sharp focus on the most meaningful issues is the only way to drive real change.</em>\r\n<em>Stamina</em>\r\n<em>Boxers love the jump-rope. We use them to warm up and to set the stage for what we call “active rest,” which helps build stamina. There is no resting in boxing because when you’re in the ring, and you are absolutely exhausted, unfortunately you can’t sit down and take a minute. Pacing yourself, understanding how to “rest,” and pushing through when you just want to give up – that’s what matters. Stamina is one of the most underappreciated qualities necessary in building a business. We are constantly reading stories of unicorn rounds, monster IPOs, and we celebrate invincible-seeming founders and CEOs. The reality is that those leaders are human. They have the same anxieties and fears we have. I promise you, they went through many more “downs” than “ups” in the (much longer than you imagine) story of their success. And, there are many more failures than there are successes. What matters is lifting yourself up when you feel like you can’t. There is no better indicator of future success than resilience, determination, and stamina.</em>\r\n<em>Fear</em>\r\n<em>I thought I knew what it meant to be afraid. I grew up in New York City in the 1980s. It wasn’t a war zone, or a third world nation. I was then, and still remain today, privileged. But it was a different time and the city was not a very safe place. I was robbed growing up… twice. The memory of that experience is nothing compared to the sheer terror I felt the first time I was in the ring and someone came barreling at me. It was a blur of sweat, spit, leather, and blood. Every cell in my body seemed to scream out: “RUN!” The reaction was physical. My mind and my body worked in self-preservational ways to accelerate my heart rate, leading to rapid breathing, and an almost out-of-body experience. Over time, I taught myself to control my mind and my body. I had to get comfortable with the fear. I had to embrace it. As one of my first trainers told me, “boxing is like swimming. If you get into the pool you’re going to get wet. If you get into the ring, you’re going to get hit.”</em>\r\n<em>We rarely talk about fear in the context of business. But, it’s there. The biggest mistakes I’ve made in my career stemmed from fear; fear of losing my job, fear of going against the tide, fear of conflict. Dreading a conversation with your investors? Wishing you didn’t have to fire your co-founder, your friend? Can’t sleep because you know the all-hands tomorrow is when you tell everyone about the layoffs? We don’t talk about it, but fear creates the loneliest and toughest times for most CEOs. When the fear comes barreling at you, and your heart is racing, and there’s no other option, you can run away and avoid things, or you can take a deep breath, relax, and embrace it.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Going The Distance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1482-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '2019-07-14 17:23:19', '', 1482, 'http://marcellus.in/1482-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1488, 1, '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">Author: John Gapper</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: FT (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=98736ed03d&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.ft.com/content/4ba8c746-7bc4-11e9-8b5c-33d0560f039c</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<strong>Only 22% of Searches on Amazon Include a Brand Name</strong>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Author: Juozas \"Joe\" Kaziukėnas</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Source: Market Place Pulse (</span><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6a9e3dc531&amp;e=098ce1553a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https://www.marketplacepulse.com/articles/only-22-of-searches-on-amazon-include-a-brand-name</a><span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\">)</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> John Kay, a British economist in his brilliant book on corporate strategy – “The Foundations of Corporate Success” cites among the most sustainable sources of competitive advantages as Brand, Architecture (external and internal networks), Strategic Assets (location, licenses, etc) and Innovation (the least sustainable of them all). Investors, including the legendary Warren Buffet look for companies with such enduring ‘moats’ whilst making their investment decisions. However, increasingly ‘Brand’ as a sustainable moat is being threatened and questioned not least because of the recent Kraft debacle, a Buffet investment in itself. We feature twin articles emerging in different places this week. First, John Gapper of the FT using the Kraft context, in this succinct piece, takes a shot at explaining why the churn rate in the world’s top brands is rising. He ascribes three key reasons:</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             globalisation (brands from emerging economies such as China are going global threatening incumbents),</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             technology (recently built brands such as Amazon, Google are from the tech world which naturally lends itself to obsolescence) and</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> -             generational change (the millenials’ consumption preferences is not only vastly different from its previous generations but also changes much quicker than any of the preceding generations).</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> Second, Joe Kaziukenas, the founder of Market Place Pulse talks about how among the 100,000 most popular searches on Amazon, only 22% include a brand name. Consumers are increasingly searching for generics “Running shoes for women” as opposed to Nike or Puma and as he cites in the article “AA batteries” rather than “Duracell”, which has made Amazon’s inhouse brand AmazonBasics the largest selling brand for batteries. Similarly, in the Kraft context, one can’t ignore the impact of Costco and Walmart’s private labels gaining share displacing incumbent brands either. Perhaps, John Gapper should have had a fourth bullet in his list of reasons for the decline in brands.</span>\r\n<span style=\"display: inline !important; float: none; background-color: transparent; color: #202020; font-family: helvetica neue,Helvetica,arial,verdana,sans-serif,serif,\'EmojiFont\'; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: justify; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;\"> At Marcellus, we are wary that brands from a consumers’ perspective is different from that of an investor. For eg, Asian Paints’ success over the past 70yrs is often ascribed to its brand strength. However, research on Asian Paints as elaborated by our colleague Saurabh Mukherjea, in his book - ‘The Unusual Billionnaires’, suggests something else. Indeed, we find John Kay’s ‘Architecture’ as a far more enduring moat. Understanding a company’s ‘Architecture’ or what our fund manager, Rakshit Ranjan prefers to refer as ‘the DNA of the company’, involves looking at companies from the inside-out, often requiring interviewing several people over months on end, including customers, suppliers, ex-employees and other parts of the company’s ecosystem. How these various entities interact with the firm, their incentives and systems and processes that binds them is a far enriching experience in terms of understanding sustainable moats and often not well understood by the market (due to the sheer grind involved in the process) and hence not reflected in the price.</span>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'China and new tech generation shake old notions of good branding', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1480-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '2019-07-14 17:44:46', '', 1480, 'http://marcellus.in/1480-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1491, 1, '2018-10-20 12:48:13', '2018-10-20 12:48:13', '<em>Published on:20 October, 2018</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>There are plenty of cleverly crafted games in which you win most of the time and are rewarded with small payoffs</strong><strong>. However, in such games there is always one scenario (which is not the base case scenario) where you get wiped out completely. Investing in NBFCs resembles these games of chance. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.”</em></strong><strong> – J.M.Keynes in “The General Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Money” (1936) </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Would you gamble if the odds are stacked in your favour?</strong>\r\n\r\nImagine you walk into a European casino in Monaco and are ushered towards a roulette wheel. The wheel has 37 numbers: the numbers 1 through to 36 and the number zero. You are told that if you bet $100 you will get an extra $3 if any non-zero number comes up. But if zero comes up, you will lose your $100. You swiftly do the maths in your head and realised that the odds are stacked in your favour. In fact, on average you expect to make 21.6 cents every time the wheel is spun [36/37 x 3 – 1/37 x 0]. Being a switched on Indian HNW you realise that you will lose money only 3% of the time (1/37).\r\n\r\nThe wheel is spun a few times and as expected you win repeatedly as non-zero numbers come up. You then call up your bank in Switzerland and ask them to give you some margin funding so that you can wager larger amounts. As you sustain your sterling track record, you call up a Private Equity fund in Mumbai, spell out your track record of continuous profits and explain how they too can get a slice of the action if they take a stake in your enterprise. With debt from Swiss banks and equity from PE, you are now betting many multiples of $100. It is all going swimmingly until one day, the wheel stops on zero.\r\n\r\n<strong>The financial model of an NBFC (in India and beyond)</strong>\r\n\r\nThe business model of a non-bank lender is and always has been straightforward. The lender has equity of $10 and borrows $90 (debt:equity of 9x) from the wholesale money market (say, at the rate of $45 every six months).\r\n\r\nThis $100 is then lent at a certain interest rate either to people who want to buy flats (20 year home loans) or to developer who want to construct residential housing blocks (5 year developer loans). Most of the interest collected from these borrowers goes to the wholesale money market participants who gave the NBFC the $90. Assuming a spread between the two interest rates of 3%, gives the NBFC a gross profit of $3 on the $100 it has lent. From that, the NBFC pays for its operating costs (assume 50 cents) and for bad debts (i.e. for borrowers who do not repay). Assuming it is a well-run NBFC, the bad debts could be as little 50 cents. That means that on $100 of loans (funded by a mere $10 of equity), the NBFC will make a profit of $2 (3 – 0.50 – 0.50). That results in a very impressive Return on Equity of 20% (2 / 10), enough to convince every PE house in town to seek a stake in the said NBFC.\r\n\r\nThen one day, one of the developers (who has been lent, say, just $2) says that he cannot repay. So the NBFC takes possession of the half constructed building that the developer has erected but can’t find any buyers for the skeletal structure. That year the NBFC’s profits go to zero as the normal operating profit of $2 is wiped out by the developer’s default - the equivalent of the roulette wheel stopping on zero. Next month, the wholesale money market – unnerved by the NBFC’s zero profits - refuses to extend its usual $45 to the NBFC; rather it coughs up only $25. This is not enough for the NBFC to rollover its existing debt.\r\n\r\nSince the NBFC’s shareholders’ equity is only $10, the NBFC is now left insufficient funds. It can do one of two things: (1) raise more equity (which would heavily dilute the current shareholders but protect the wholesale money market lenders who have lent money to the NBFC); or (2) default on the monies that it owes the wholesale market (which completely wipes out the current shareholders and the wholesale money market lenders).\r\n\r\n<strong>Investing in a NBFC is like playing European roulette</strong>\r\n\r\nFor the past couple of years we have told anyone who was willing to listen and any TV station that was willing to give us a pulpit that investing in NBFCs is like playing European roulette. You will make money most of the time – typically in large, free market economies NBFCs go bust once every decade or so. But then one day you will (yes, “will” is the apt word) lose everything you invested in the NBFC.\r\n\r\nTo cite a more prosaic game that most of us played as kids – investing in NBFCs is like playing Snakes &amp; Ladders. There is that super long snake in the penultimate cell who brings you back to zero (although only a minority of the cells contain snakes). On the other hand, investing in clean, well-managed companies in the real world is like playing Ludo – it is more laborious but we know where we are going and ultimately get there.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em><em>     </em>', 'Fooled by probabilities and by Indian NBFCs', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs', '', '', '2019-11-22 11:53:34', '2019-11-22 11:53:34', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1491', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1492, 1, '2019-07-18 12:55:27', '2019-07-18 12:55:27', '<em>Published on:10 July, 2019</em>\r\n<strong>There are plenty of cleverly crafted games in which you win most of the time and are rewarded with small payoffs</strong><strong>. However, in such games there is always one scenario (which is not the base case scenario) where you get wiped out completely. Investing in NBFCs resembles these games of chance. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>“When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.”</em></strong><strong> – J.M.Keynes in “The General Theory of Unemployment, Interest and Money” (1936) </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Would you gamble if the odds are stacked in your favour?</strong>\r\n\r\nImagine you walk into a European casino in Monaco and are ushered towards a roulette wheel. The wheel has 37 numbers: the numbers 1 through to 36 and the number zero. You are told that if you bet $100 you will get an extra $3 if any non-zero number comes up. But if zero comes up, you will lose your $100. You swiftly do the maths in your head and realised that the odds are stacked in your favour. In fact, on average you expect to make 21.6 cents every time the wheel is spun [36/37 x 3 – 1/37 x 0]. Being a switched on Indian HNW you realise that you will lose money only 3% of the time (1/37).\r\n\r\nThe wheel is spun a few times and as expected you win repeatedly as non-zero numbers come up. You then call up your bank in Switzerland and ask them to give you some margin funding so that you can wager larger amounts. As you sustain your sterling track record, you call up a Private Equity fund in Mumbai, spell out your track record of continuous profits and explain how they too can get a slice of the action if they take a stake in your enterprise. With debt from Swiss banks and equity from PE, you are now betting many multiples of $100. It is all going swimmingly until one day, the wheel stops on zero.\r\n\r\n<strong>The financial model of an NBFC (in India and beyond)</strong>\r\n\r\nThe business model of a non-bank lender is and always has been straightforward. The lender has equity of $10 and borrows $90 (debt:equity of 9x) from the wholesale money market (say, at the rate of $45 every six months).\r\n\r\nThis $100 is then lent at a certain interest rate either to people who want to buy flats (20 year home loans) or to developer who want to construct residential housing blocks (5 year developer loans). Most of the interest collected from these borrowers goes to the wholesale money market participants who gave the NBFC the $90. Assuming a spread between the two interest rates of 3%, gives the NBFC a gross profit of $3 on the $100 it has lent. From that, the NBFC pays for its operating costs (assume 50 cents) and for bad debts (i.e. for borrowers who do not repay). Assuming it is a well-run NBFC, the bad debts could be as little 50 cents. That means that on $100 of loans (funded by a mere $10 of equity), the NBFC will make a profit of $2 (3 – 0.50 – 0.50). That results in a very impressive Return on Equity of 20% (2 / 10), enough to convince every PE house in town to seek a stake in the said NBFC.\r\n\r\nThen one day, one of the developers (who has been lent, say, just $2) says that he cannot repay. So the NBFC takes possession of the half constructed building that the developer has erected but can’t find any buyers for the skeletal structure. That year the NBFC’s profits go to zero as the normal operating profit of $2 is wiped out by the developer’s default - the equivalent of the roulette wheel stopping on zero. Next month, the wholesale money market – unnerved by the NBFC’s zero profits - refuses to extend its usual $45 to the NBFC; rather it coughs up only $25. This is not enough for the NBFC to rollover its existing debt.\r\n\r\nSince the NBFC’s shareholders’ equity is only $10, the NBFC is now left insufficient funds. It can do one of two things: (1) raise more equity (which would heavily dilute the current shareholders but protect the wholesale money market lenders who have lent money to the NBFC); or (2) default on the monies that it owes the wholesale market (which completely wipes out the current shareholders and the wholesale money market lenders).\r\n\r\n<strong>Investing in a NBFC is like playing European roulette</strong>\r\n\r\nFor the past couple of years we have told anyone who was willing to listen and any TV station that was willing to give us a pulpit that investing in NBFCs is like playing European roulette. You will make money most of the time – typically in large, free market economies NBFCs go bust once every decade or so. But then one day you will (yes, “will” is the apt word) lose everything you invested in the NBFC.\r\n\r\nTo cite a more prosaic game that most of us played as kids – investing in NBFCs is like playing Snakes &amp; Ladders. There is that super long snake in the penultimate cell who brings you back to zero (although only a minority of the cells contain snakes). On the other hand, investing in clean, well-managed companies in the real world is like playing Ludo – it is more laborious but we know where we are going and ultimately get there.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”. He’s also the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers.</em><em>     </em>', 'Fooled by probabilities and by Indian NBFCs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1491-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-07-18 12:55:27', '2019-07-18 12:55:27', '', 1491, 'http://marcellus.in/1491-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1493, 1, '2019-07-18 16:24:35', '2019-07-18 16:24:35', '<em>Published on:18 July, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<b><span style=\"color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: small;\">In the context of investing, the current fad for big data and machine learning seems overblown. Successful investing entails understanding basic probabilities well and whilst machines can be used to crunch these probabilities, to date the old fashioned method of reading annual reports to calculate these probabilities has worked pretty well.\r\n</span></b>\r\n<em>“Small data is big data in disguise. The reason we can often make good predictions from a small number of observations…is that our priors [prior experiences] are so rich. Whether we know it or not, we appear to carry around in our heads, surprisingly accurate priors about movies grosses,…poem lengths, political terms of office…and human life spans. We don’t need to gather them explicitly; we absorb them from the world.”– </em><strong><em>Brian Christian &amp; Tom Griffiths in ‘Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions’ (2016) </em></strong>[square brackets are our insertions]\r\n\r\n<strong>The Big Data craze on the London Underground</strong>\r\nLast week whilst travelling on the London Undergound I was whiling away a train journey reading the adverts pasted on the walls of the subway train. When I saw that most of the adverts for professional education courses were centered around Big Data (eg. “Learn Python in 7 days” or “Masters in Big Data” or “Advanced Courses in Statistics”, etc), I couldn’t help remembering how 20 years ago the same adverts on the London Underground trains were for courses in Java, web design or graphic design.\r\n\r\nAt that time as a freshly minted graduate, I had gone to my then manager, Steve Norton, and requested him to give me time off to learn Java. To my chagrin, Steve had sat me down and given me a lecture on why I needed to focus on understanding how to analyse businesses and corporate strategy rather than joining the web bandwagon. 20 years on as I see today’s graduates climb the Big Data bandwagon I realise how right Steve was.\r\n\r\nSteve’s insight is apt today as it was 20 years ago – small data i.e. an understanding of on how companies and industries operate is for investors far more powerful than any amount of big data crunching. Let me illustrate with an example.\r\n\r\n<strong>The world reveals itself to us through small data</strong>\r\nLet us begin with a simple game. Assume that we have two buckets: A &amp; B. Each bucket has balls of two colours: red and black. Each of us gets one chance to pick one ball from one bucket (we can choose which bucket to pick from). Whoever picks the first black ball wins the game.\r\n\r\n<strong>Bucket A</strong> has 100 balls of which 90 are red and the rest are black. <strong>Bucket B</strong> has 1000 balls of which 990 are red and the rest are black.\r\n\r\nIf the goal is to pick a black ball then obviously <strong>you should pick from bucket A</strong> since the probability of drawing black is 10% in bucket A versus 1% in bucket B. In other words, you are 10x more likely to be win the game if you focus on Bucket A than on Bucket B.\r\n\r\nSounds simple enough doesn’t it. Now, let’s bring this game to the real world. Bucket A is the paints sector in India and Bucket B is the NBFC sector in India. Black balls are like Rob Kirby’s Coffee Can stocks (see Kirby’s celebrated paper <a href=\"http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-coffee-can-portfolio.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-coffee-can-portfolio.pdf</a> from 1984 or my book ‘Coffee Can Investing’ from 2018 for more details) which can give you high returns with low volatility. Red balls are like typical Nifty stocks i.e. you will get returns of around 13% per annum over ten years (i.e. half as much as the black balls) with moderate-high volatility.\r\n\r\nIf the NBFC sector is like Bucket B and Bucket B is 10x less likely to be a winning bet compared to Bucket A, then why do so many smart investors bet on the NBFC sector? Conversely, if the paints sector is like Bucket A, why do so few investors bet on paint companies? [I can think of only one private equity (PE) company in India who has invested in the paints sector in the past five years whereas nearly every PE company has an NBFC investment.] In other words, why don’t investors understand the basic probabilities of successful investing?\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nThere are a number of reasons why so much capital flows into the NBFC sector and so little into the paints sector:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The barriers to setting up an NBFC in India are relatively low (in what remains a country with scarce provision of credit) compared to setting up a paint company. In paints, thanks to Asian Paints, it is a big challenge for a new entrant to get its distribution into a competitive position [to understand more about this read Chapters 2 &amp; 3 of my book ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016)]. As a result, there are many more NBFCs clamouring for capital than there are paint companies. [Remember, Bucket B has 10x as many balls as Bucket A.] Economists call it “adverse selection” i.e. the inferior agent more proactively seeks out the money. The same thing happens when hospital blood banks offer cash for blood donations.</li>\r\n 	<li>NBFC companies – even the most successful ones – are highly capital consumptive because they rarely generate enough surplus on an annual basis to finance their loan book growth. Paint companies – even second rung ones – typically have Return on Capital above their Cost of Capital which means that routinely generate free cashflow. Hence paint companies seldom need money whilst NBFCs routinely need money.</li>\r\n 	<li>In the game that I sketched out at the beginning of this note, I assumed that we could easily distinguish whether you had picked a red ball or a black ball. But what if you could fool me into believing that the red ball you had drawn was actually a black ball? If you can easily fool me then it is no longer obvious that you should choose Bucket A (90% of balls are red) over Bucket B (99% of balls are red). Applying this to the real world, it is far easier for NBFCs to fool investors about the quality of their business (by evergreening their bad debts) than it is for a paint company (whose free cashflows or Return on Capital will give a pretty clear indication of its health). Hence in the real world investors get drawn to the NBFC sector thinking that it is like Bucket A (not Bucket B). In other words, investors see a Bajaj Finance or a Cholamandalam and end up being fooled by other NBFCs into believing that they are the next BAF or Chola.</li>\r\n 	<li>Leaving aside accounting jugglery, the fact that NBFCs are unlikely to produce as high a proportion of black balls as the paints sector takes time to hit home because of the capital structure of NBFCs. As we wrote in our 20 November 2018 blog <em>\"...investing in NBFCs is like playing European roulette. You will make money most of the time – typically in large, free market economies NBFCs go bust once every decade or so. But then one day you will (yes, “will” is the apt word) lose everything you invested in the NBFC.\r\nTo cite a more prosaic game that most of us played as kids – investing in NBFCs is like playing Snakes &amp; Ladders. There is that super long snake in the penultimate cell who brings you back to zero (although only a minority of the cells contain snakes). On the other hand, investing in clean, well-managed companies in the real world is like playing Ludo – it is more laborious but we know where we are going and ultimately get there.\"</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nTo conclude, whilst the base probability of making a successful investment in a given sector can be readily calculated from publicly available data on databases like ACE (which also includes data from unlisted companies), most investors are rarely able to think about the world like this. And if you call these sorts of probabilities small data (because you need only a small amount of data to calculate these probabilities), you can see why small data is more powerful than big data.\r\n\r\nIn fact, what legendary investors do is read the annual reports of thousands of companies over the course of several decades. That allows them to build a mental database of the base probabilities of successful investing in any given sector. Looking at the world this way, you realise that successful investing is essentially the translation of years of reading/absorbing reams of data into probabilities. In effect, it is when big data becomes small data that you actually get value out of it.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Small Data is More Important than Big Data', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'small-data-is-more-important-than-big-data', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:32:20', '2019-11-04 09:32:20', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1493', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1497, 1, '2019-10-22 11:41:20', '2019-10-22 11:41:20', '<em>Published on:18 July, 2019</em>\n\n<b><span style=\"color: #202020; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: small;\">In the context of investing, the current fad for big data and machine learning seems overblown. Successful investing entails understanding basic probabilities well and whilst machines can be used to crunch these probabilities, to date the old fashioned method of reading annual reports to calculate these probabilities has worked pretty well.\n</span></b>\n<em>“Small data is big data in disguise. The reason we can often make good predictions from a small number of observations…is that our priors [prior experiences] are so rich. Whether we know it or not, we appear to carry around in our heads, surprisingly accurate priors about movies grosses,…poem lengths, political terms of office…and human life spans. We don’t need to gather them explicitly; we absorb them from the world.”– </em><strong><em>Brian Christian &amp; Tom Griffiths in ‘Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions’ (2016) </em></strong>[square brackets are our insertions]\n\n<strong>The Big Data craze on the London Underground</strong>\nLast week whilst travelling on the London Undergound I was whiling away a train journey reading the adverts pasted on the walls of the subway train. When I saw that most of the adverts for professional education courses were centered around Big Data (eg. “Learn Python in 7 days” or “Masters in Big Data” or “Advanced Courses in Statistics”, etc), I couldn’t help remembering how 20 years ago the same adverts on the London Underground trains were for courses in Java, web design or graphic design.\n\nAt that time as a freshly minted graduate, I had gone to my then manager, Steve Norton, and requested him to give me time off to learn Java. To my chagrin, Steve had sat me down and given me a lecture on why I needed to focus on understanding how to analyse businesses and corporate strategy rather than joining the web bandwagon. 20 years on as I see today’s graduates climb the Big Data bandwagon I realise how right Steve was.\n\nSteve’s insight is apt today as it was 20 years ago – small data i.e. an understanding of on how companies and industries operate is for investors far more powerful than any amount of big data crunching. Let me illustrate with an example.\n\n<strong>The world reveals itself to us through small data</strong>\nLet us begin with a simple game. Assume that we have two buckets: A &amp; B. Each bucket has balls of two colours: red and black. Each of us gets one chance to pick one ball from one bucket (we can choose which bucket to pick from). Whoever picks the first black ball wins the game.\n\n<strong>Bucket A</strong> has 100 balls of which 90 are red and the rest are black. <strong>Bucket B</strong> has 1000 balls of which 990 are red and the rest are black.\n\nIf the goal is to pick a black ball then obviously <strong>you should pick from bucket A</strong> since the probability of drawing black is 10% in bucket A versus 1% in bucket B. In other words, you are 10x more likely to be win the game if you focus on Bucket A than on Bucket B.\n\nSounds simple enough doesn’t it. Now, let’s bring this game to the real world. Bucket A is the paints sector in India and Bucket B is the NBFC sector in India. Black balls are like Rob Kirby’s Coffee Can stocks (see Kirby’s celebrated paper <a href=\"http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-coffee-can-portfolio.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\">http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/the-coffee-can-portfolio.pdf</a> from 1984 or my book ‘Coffee Can Investing’ from 2018 for more details) which can give you high returns with low volatility. Red balls are like typical Nifty stocks i.e. you will get returns of around 13% per annum over ten years (i.e. half as much as the black balls) with moderate-high volatility.\n\nIf the NBFC sector is like Bucket B and Bucket B is 10x less likely to be a winning bet compared to Bucket A, then why do so many smart investors bet on the NBFC sector? Conversely, if the paints sector is like Bucket A, why do so few investors bet on paint companies? [I can think of only one private equity (PE) company in India who has invested in the paints sector in the past five years whereas nearly every PE company has an NBFC investment.] In other words, why don’t investors understand the basic probabilities of successful investing?\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nThere are a number of reasons why so much capital flows into the NBFC sector and so little into the paints sector:\n<ol>\n 	<li>The barriers to setting up an NBFC in India are relatively low (in what remains a country with scarce provision of credit) compared to setting up a paint company. In paints, thanks to Asian Paints, it is a big challenge for a new entrant to get its distribution into a competitive position [to understand more about this read Chapters 2 &amp; 3 of my book ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016)]. As a result, there are many more NBFCs clamouring for capital than there are paint companies. [Remember, Bucket B has 10x as many balls as Bucket A.] Economists call it “adverse selection” i.e. the inferior agent more proactively seeks out the money. The same thing happens when hospital blood banks offer cash for blood donations.</li>\n 	<li>NBFC companies – even the most successful ones – are highly capital consumptive because they rarely generate enough surplus on an annual basis to finance their loan book growth. Paint companies – even second rung ones – typically have Return on Capital above their Cost of Capital which means that routinely generate free cashflow. Hence paint companies seldom need money whilst NBFCs routinely need money.</li>\n 	<li>In the game that I sketched out at the beginning of this note, I assumed that we could easily distinguish whether you had picked a red ball or a black ball. But what if you could fool me into believing that the red ball you had drawn was actually a black ball? If you can easily fool me then it is no longer obvious that you should choose Bucket A (90% of balls are red) over Bucket B (99% of balls are red). Applying this to the real world, it is far easier for NBFCs to fool investors about the quality of their business (by evergreening their bad debts) than it is for a paint company (whose free cashflows or Return on Capital will give a pretty clear indication of its health). Hence in the real world investors get drawn to the NBFC sector thinking that it is like Bucket A (not Bucket B). In other words, investors see a Bajaj Finance or a Cholamandalam and end up being fooled by other NBFCs into believing that they are the next BAF or Chola.</li>\n 	<li>Leaving aside accounting jugglery, the fact that NBFCs are unlikely to produce as high a proportion of black balls as the paints sector takes time to hit home because of the capital structure of NBFCs. As we wrote in our 20 November 2018 blog <em>\"...investing in NBFCs is like playing European roulette. You will make money most of the time – typically in large, free market economies NBFCs go bust once every decade or so. But then one day you will (yes, “will” is the apt word) lose everything you invested in the NBFC.\nTo cite a more prosaic game that most of us played as kids – investing in NBFCs is like playing Snakes &amp; Ladders. There is that super long snake in the penultimate cell who brings you back to zero (although only a minority of the cells contain snakes). On the other hand, investing in clean, well-managed companies in the real world is like playing Ludo – it is more laborious but we know where we are going and ultimately get there.\"</em></li>\n</ol>\nTo conclude, whilst the base probability of making a successful investment in a given sector can be readily calculated from publicly available data on databases like ACE (which also includes data from unlisted companies), most investors are rarely able to think about the world like this. And if you call these sorts of probabilities small data (because you need only a small amount of data to calculate these probabilities), you can see why small data is more powerful than big data.\n\nIn fact, what legendary investors do is read the annual reports of thousands of companies over the course of several decades. That allows them to build a mental database of the base probabilities of successful investing in any given sector. Looking at the world this way, you realise that successful investing is essentially the translation of years of reading/absorbing reams of data into probabilities. In effect, it is when big data becomes small data that you actually get value out of it.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=222daea88a&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Small Data is More Important than Big Data', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1493-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-22 11:41:20', '2019-10-22 11:41:20', '', 1493, 'http://marcellus.in/1493-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1522, 1, '2019-07-28 10:41:04', '2019-07-28 10:41:04', 'Author: Margaret Morris\r\nSource: Fivebooks.com (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=51ba133f23&amp;e=5648501957\">https://fivebooks.com/best-books/how-to-use-technology-margaret-morris/</a>)\r\nPsychologist Margaret Morris talks about the five books that shaped her approach to technology. These books are:\r\n·       The Saturated Self by Kenneth Gergen;\r\n·       The Stories We Live By: Personal Myths And The Making Of The Self by Dan McAdams;\r\n·       How Emotions Are Made: The Secret Life of the Brain by Lisa Feldman Barrett\r\n·       Loneliness – Human Nature and the Need for Social Connection by  John T. Cacioppo  and William Patrick;\r\n·       Evocative Objects – Things we think with by by Sherry Turkle, Tod Machover, Carol Strohecker, Susan Yee and Mitchel Resnick.\r\nHer central point is that whether technology benefits you or damages you/your family/your relationships, etc depends on how well you use technology. These five books can show you how to use technology better.\r\nDan McAdams’ book highlights something called the interview process which one can use to optimise one’s use of social media: <em>“That interview process was developed by psychologist Dan McAdams, who wrote one of the books that I’ve recommended, The Stories We Live By. I first ask students to do that interview with themselves. It’s a pretty personal and in-depth thing just to acknowledge the major chapters, themes and struggles in one’s life. Next they integrate a description of the technologies that were significant at different points in their lives. Then they find points where their technology use might be either exacerbating certain struggles or certainly not helping them move on. They might recognize what Dan McAdams calls ‘a narrative rut.’ Then they can start thinking about what to do differently. So that’s a pretty explicit, deliberate approach.”</em>\r\nLisa Feldman Barrett turns the argument that technology influences us on its head. Instead she shows in her book how <em>“…we can become “the architects of our experiences.” She pushes against the idea that events trigger emotions in a predetermined way and suggests we find the most specific language possible to describe our experiences and feelings. This specificity may propel us to move forward from challenges in a constructive way…We are not just this objective summary of what has happened to us. We are our interpretations of things, and how we articulate them...</em> <em>Her work suggests that perhaps what’s going to really help a person is actually not technology that tells them how they’re feeling, but something that helps them articulate how they’re feeling.”</em>\r\nJohn Cacioppo’s book delves into an unusual subject. He focuses <em>“…tools to help people—particularly people in later life—reach out to others, or at least recognize that loneliness isn’t something that’s fixed and a necessary part of life. In one project for older adults and their caregivers, we depicted loneliness—or, on the flipside, social connectedness—in a visual display that looked like a solar system. It was driven by sensors and also a journal that they kept. In making this with interaction designers and developers, what I really wanted was to take some ideas about loneliness from John Cacioppo’s work and from ‘learned helplessness’ to show that things are changeable…Learned helplessness is when someone stops trying to change a negative situation after repeated failures. The situation is perceived as fixed or stable, part of an attributional style that’s associated with depression. In the case of his study, that would be the feeling that as one participant said at the start of the study ‘Loneliness is a part of old age and there’s nothing you can do about it.’</em>\r\n<em>We wanted to create feedback that immediately rewarded social effort. So that if the older adult made a phone call or sent an email or had someone over, the dynamic display immediately updated to reinforce that effort. It conveyed that they could change their social engagement through small steps.</em>\r\n<em>The other part of it is what you can do to bring about change. One of the things I found really interesting in John Cacioppo’s work is that loneliness isn’t exclusively about receiving social support. It’s about participating in different kinds of relationships and communities. Making small gestures for others and not expecting anything in return is one really positive path out of loneliness.”</em>\r\nSheryl Turkle and her colleagues’ book is a collection of essays about cherished objects. <em>“Turkle investigates and celebrates the attachment that we have to objects. The relationships with objects isn’t between one person and one thing. There are all these human relationships and stories that are entangled in our attachment to objects. That is why a lot of people are attached to their phones. It’s not about the device, it’s about the relationships and the validation that they can have access to through these devices. That’s why they’re so important to them, they are a touchpoint for all that human connection.</em>\r\n<em>There’s always the question, ‘Why are people spending so much time on their screens?’ I think maybe a slightly better question is, ‘What are they getting out of it?’ or ‘What are they seeking from their screens?’ There’s a search for a signal that I matter, or that people want to talk to me. It’s acknowledging that I’m desirable, I’m important, I’m significant to other people.</em>\r\n<em>That’s maybe a more fruitful conversation to have than just wondering how we get people to be less attached to their screens. Maybe kids need more validation, more world-opening experiences or more role models than those available to them in their local environments. Or maybe they just need more excitement. It’s about addressing those needs. Those are the kind of things we should be thinking about.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How To Use Technology And Not Be Used By It: A Psychologist’s Reading List', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-use-technology-and-not-be-used-by-it-a-psychologists-reading-list', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:51:35', '2019-07-28 10:51:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1522', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1502, 1, '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', 'Author: Annesha Ghosh\r\nSource: The Cricket Monthly (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44d3191d4e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1194801/-i-couldn-t-handle-being-the-best-because-the-only-way-was-down</a>)\r\nEven as men’s cricket has made significant strides over the years especially in terms of players’ fitness reflecting in the general athleticism on the field or the power hitting, the gap between men’s and women’s cricket has remarkably narrowed in recent years. Adam Gilchrist’s quote in this article that Sarah Taylor was the best wicket keeper around, male or female, is testimony to this. But this article isn’t so much about women’s cricket. Annesha Ghosh of ESPNcricinfo brings out a rather worrying aspect of high-performing professionals – rising incidents of mental ailments. English cricket has had high profile cases in Marcus Trescothik, Monty Panesar and more recently Jonathan Trott. Annesha takes us through the English women’s team wicket keeper, Sarah Taylor’s experience to show: a) how immensely driven athletes (in this case, but could be in any profession) succumb under their own need to achieve perfection; b) how lack of awareness of mental ailments prevents near and dear ones to recognise and lend a helping hand. It ends on a promising note about how Sarah dealt with it and how she intends to help others. But it does raise the alarm bells for all of us to keep a lookout for those around us who might be in need of help as Taylor puts it: <em>\"The awareness around mental well-being isn\'t for people that are suffering but actually for people that aren\'t. If they don\'t understand, they would never really be able to help, even if they may like to help.\"</em>\r\n<em>“Taylor traces the roots of her ailment to her growing-up years and her desire for perfection. \"If I look back, I have always tried to be the best at everything, and I was always the best at everything,\" she says. \"I was always that girl that played football with the boys because I was good enough. I was always picked first in anything that had to do with sport. And then, all of a sudden, dealing with the fact you weren\'t [following the 2016 World T20].</em>\r\n<em> \"All the girls here [in the England team] know that I like to be a perfectionist at everything I do. Ultimately, that\'s probably the downfall. I know, rationally, that I cannot be perfect at everything. But at the time, and in that moment, my brain is going haywire because I\'m not perfect or because I know being perfect is not possible. \"When I look back, I can probably remember that if I wanted to be perfect at something, instead of trying it out and failing and learning, I would avoid it completely.\"</em>\r\n<em>Recognising and accepting one\'s frailties is never easy. For Taylor, it took till she was at the top of her game to realise that something was wrong. \"Just before I took the indefinite break [in 2016], I learnt I couldn\'t deal with not being the best. It was in that [World T20] tournament that I was ranked No. 1 in the world in T20Is. </em><strong><em>I got to [being] the best and I couldn\'t handle it because the only way was down, and I didn\'t know how to process that.</em></strong>\r\n<em>\"And then the expectations grew from others and myself and I didn\'t know how to handle them, so it went all… (mimics a plane going down, blowing a raspberry). It all just hit me at once and that\'s why the break happened.\"</em>\r\n<em>….Often the signs of someone\'s torment are all but invisible to those around them. \"That\'s the hard bit and that\'s why things have gone on for long periods of time,\" says Brunt. \"If they choose not to speak about it, it would be very hard to be able to know that anything is wrong.\"</em>\r\n<em>Perceptions regarding mental health are one thing; dealing with issues is another. Taylor has been playing a part in getting the conversation going in her immediate circle and beyond.</em>\r\n<em>\"The awareness around mental well-being,\" she says, \"isn\'t for people that are suffering but actually for people that aren\'t. If they don\'t understand, they would never really be able to help, even if they may like to help.\"</em>\r\n<em>Eighteen months after Taylor opened up about her struggles, her England team-mate Kate Cross spoke publicly about dealing with anxiety. Taylor\'s advocacy - through her social-media posts, in-depth interviews and charity - has left a mark elsewhere too.</em>\r\n<em>\"I think Sarah Taylor\'s speaking up has started a discussion around it as far as female cricketers are concerned,\" says India batsman Smriti Mandhana, who is a fan of Taylor and who, as a teen, once remonstrated with her father for not grooming her into a wicketkeeper.</em>\r\n<em>\"In our dressing room, too, girls may be facing similar issues. But does everyone know what a mental illness is? I think 50-70% of our team has read or watched her interviews, so there is some knowledge now.\"</em>\r\n<em>Taylor says she has not exactly considered the possibility of being a role model in the mental-health discourse as far as women\'s cricket goes, but she is determined to push for help for and support fellow sufferers and survivors.</em>\r\n<em>\"If someone\'s not getting the right treatment or is treated poorly, or is not handled properly, I get a little bit affected by it; it hurts,\" says Taylor. \"If I can say or do anything that can help people understand, then I\'d love to do it.\"</em>\r\n<em>To that end, she has found a potential avenue she can go down after she is done with active cricket: she completed a diploma in life coaching in November last year. A few months ago, she announced she was co-founding a mental-health charity, Awesome Minds. If the opportunity to be a life coach in a professional sports team set-up comes by, Taylor says she would be open to exploring it. \"I would love to help as many people as I can.\"</em>\r\n<em>As for the immediate future, she has her sights set on playing the World T20 in Australia in February-March next year. \"Obviously you want to be successful in your field ultimately,\" she says. Her pursuit of perfection continues, but it is no longer bereft of moderation or perspective.</em>\r\n<em>\"I have learnt to accept who I am. It\'s not a bad thing. If that makes me do a running session, makes me have a hit [at the nets] for another hour, it\'s okay. That\'s still me trying to be the best me that I possibly can be, to give myself the best opportunities to score runs, and Robbo too is big on that - the importance of best-preparedness.\"</em>\r\n<em>She acknowledges the role of hindsight in her increased self-awareness. The past year alone, she says, has brought forth self-knowledge that she struggled to find in the past. Some of the things she learnt about herself \"weren\'t that great,\" she adds with a smile, but it has been \"a nice change\" overall.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s [learning from what went wrong] not something I would have previously wanted to do. I would bury it; hide it. \'Nothing\'s wrong; everything is fine.\' Now, I know. \'This isn\'t working. What can I do to improve?\' That\'s been the biggest journey for me - to learn that it\'s okay to fail and you have to fail. You\'re never going to get better otherwise.\"</em>', '\'I couldn\'t handle being the best because the only way was down\'', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'i-couldnt-handle-being-the-best-because-the-only-way-was-down', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1502', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1503, 1, '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', 'Author: Annesha Ghosh\r\nSource: The Cricket Monthly (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=44d3191d4e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://www.thecricketmonthly.com/story/1194801/-i-couldn-t-handle-being-the-best-because-the-only-way-was-down</a>)\r\nEven as men’s cricket has made significant strides over the years especially in terms of players’ fitness reflecting in the general athleticism on the field or the power hitting, the gap between men’s and women’s cricket has remarkably narrowed in recent years. Adam Gilchrist’s quote in this article that Sarah Taylor was the best wicket keeper around, male or female, is testimony to this. But this article isn’t so much about women’s cricket. Annesha Ghosh of ESPNcricinfo brings out a rather worrying aspect of high-performing professionals – rising incidents of mental ailments. English cricket has had high profile cases in Marcus Trescothik, Monty Panesar and more recently Jonathan Trott. Annesha takes us through the English women’s team wicket keeper, Sarah Taylor’s experience to show: a) how immensely driven athletes (in this case, but could be in any profession) succumb under their own need to achieve perfection; b) how lack of awareness of mental ailments prevents near and dear ones to recognise and lend a helping hand. It ends on a promising note about how Sarah dealt with it and how she intends to help others. But it does raise the alarm bells for all of us to keep a lookout for those around us who might be in need of help as Taylor puts it: <em>\"The awareness around mental well-being isn\'t for people that are suffering but actually for people that aren\'t. If they don\'t understand, they would never really be able to help, even if they may like to help.\"</em>\r\n<em>“Taylor traces the roots of her ailment to her growing-up years and her desire for perfection. \"If I look back, I have always tried to be the best at everything, and I was always the best at everything,\" she says. \"I was always that girl that played football with the boys because I was good enough. I was always picked first in anything that had to do with sport. And then, all of a sudden, dealing with the fact you weren\'t [following the 2016 World T20].</em>\r\n<em> \"All the girls here [in the England team] know that I like to be a perfectionist at everything I do. Ultimately, that\'s probably the downfall. I know, rationally, that I cannot be perfect at everything. But at the time, and in that moment, my brain is going haywire because I\'m not perfect or because I know being perfect is not possible. \"When I look back, I can probably remember that if I wanted to be perfect at something, instead of trying it out and failing and learning, I would avoid it completely.\"</em>\r\n<em>Recognising and accepting one\'s frailties is never easy. For Taylor, it took till she was at the top of her game to realise that something was wrong. \"Just before I took the indefinite break [in 2016], I learnt I couldn\'t deal with not being the best. It was in that [World T20] tournament that I was ranked No. 1 in the world in T20Is. </em><strong><em>I got to [being] the best and I couldn\'t handle it because the only way was down, and I didn\'t know how to process that.</em></strong>\r\n<em>\"And then the expectations grew from others and myself and I didn\'t know how to handle them, so it went all… (mimics a plane going down, blowing a raspberry). It all just hit me at once and that\'s why the break happened.\"</em>\r\n<em>….Often the signs of someone\'s torment are all but invisible to those around them. \"That\'s the hard bit and that\'s why things have gone on for long periods of time,\" says Brunt. \"If they choose not to speak about it, it would be very hard to be able to know that anything is wrong.\"</em>\r\n<em>Perceptions regarding mental health are one thing; dealing with issues is another. Taylor has been playing a part in getting the conversation going in her immediate circle and beyond.</em>\r\n<em>\"The awareness around mental well-being,\" she says, \"isn\'t for people that are suffering but actually for people that aren\'t. If they don\'t understand, they would never really be able to help, even if they may like to help.\"</em>\r\n<em>Eighteen months after Taylor opened up about her struggles, her England team-mate Kate Cross spoke publicly about dealing with anxiety. Taylor\'s advocacy - through her social-media posts, in-depth interviews and charity - has left a mark elsewhere too.</em>\r\n<em>\"I think Sarah Taylor\'s speaking up has started a discussion around it as far as female cricketers are concerned,\" says India batsman Smriti Mandhana, who is a fan of Taylor and who, as a teen, once remonstrated with her father for not grooming her into a wicketkeeper.</em>\r\n<em>\"In our dressing room, too, girls may be facing similar issues. But does everyone know what a mental illness is? I think 50-70% of our team has read or watched her interviews, so there is some knowledge now.\"</em>\r\n<em>Taylor says she has not exactly considered the possibility of being a role model in the mental-health discourse as far as women\'s cricket goes, but she is determined to push for help for and support fellow sufferers and survivors.</em>\r\n<em>\"If someone\'s not getting the right treatment or is treated poorly, or is not handled properly, I get a little bit affected by it; it hurts,\" says Taylor. \"If I can say or do anything that can help people understand, then I\'d love to do it.\"</em>\r\n<em>To that end, she has found a potential avenue she can go down after she is done with active cricket: she completed a diploma in life coaching in November last year. A few months ago, she announced she was co-founding a mental-health charity, Awesome Minds. If the opportunity to be a life coach in a professional sports team set-up comes by, Taylor says she would be open to exploring it. \"I would love to help as many people as I can.\"</em>\r\n<em>As for the immediate future, she has her sights set on playing the World T20 in Australia in February-March next year. \"Obviously you want to be successful in your field ultimately,\" she says. Her pursuit of perfection continues, but it is no longer bereft of moderation or perspective.</em>\r\n<em>\"I have learnt to accept who I am. It\'s not a bad thing. If that makes me do a running session, makes me have a hit [at the nets] for another hour, it\'s okay. That\'s still me trying to be the best me that I possibly can be, to give myself the best opportunities to score runs, and Robbo too is big on that - the importance of best-preparedness.\"</em>\r\n<em>She acknowledges the role of hindsight in her increased self-awareness. The past year alone, she says, has brought forth self-knowledge that she struggled to find in the past. Some of the things she learnt about herself \"weren\'t that great,\" she adds with a smile, but it has been \"a nice change\" overall.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s [learning from what went wrong] not something I would have previously wanted to do. I would bury it; hide it. \'Nothing\'s wrong; everything is fine.\' Now, I know. \'This isn\'t working. What can I do to improve?\' That\'s been the biggest journey for me - to learn that it\'s okay to fail and you have to fail. You\'re never going to get better otherwise.\"</em>', '\'I couldn\'t handle being the best because the only way was down\'', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1502-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '2019-07-21 08:15:14', '', 1502, 'http://marcellus.in/1502-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1504, 1, '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', 'Author: BBC Correspondent\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd4c97d0e7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846</a>)\r\nIt is no surprise that Scandinavian countries often find themselves atop most rankings for human development indices or happiness quotients. Yet this is a fascinating story in the BBC about how Norway treats its prisoners or rather prepares its convicted citizens while in prison to resume a normal life upon completion of the sentence. Like the article says <em>\"In Norway, all will be released - there are no life sentences…So we are releasing your neighbour….If we treat inmates like animals in prison, then we will release animals on to your street.\" </em>From providing a comfortably kitted cell to allowing prisoners to pursue professional courses to allowing a couple of days with family at a chalet within the prison complex to having half of the prison staff as women, Norway’s prisons are intent on rehabilitating its citizens than treating jail time as just punishment. Indeed, it is showing results - repeat offence rates in Norway have dropped to as low as 20% vs 50% in the UK as the author notes.\r\n<em> “every inmate has his own cell, which comes with an en suite toilet and shower room, a fridge, desk, flat TV screen and forest views … immaculate sofas and a well-equipped kitchenette in the communal common room”</em>\r\n<em>\"In Norway, the punishment is just to take away someone\'s liberty. The other rights stay. Prisoners can vote, they can have access to school, to health care; they have the same rights as any Norwegian citizen. Because inmates are human beings. They have done wrong, they must be punished, but they are still human beings.\"</em>\r\n<em>In the on-site garage, two inmates in overalls are tinkering with the wheel arch of a car, brushing out mud and carefully re-fixing bolts. Like most of the prisoners here, they leave their cells at 07:30 each morning and are at work by 08:15. Apart from one hour\'s rest in their cells during the afternoon, to coincide with the guards\' break, they are not locked in again until 20:30 at night.</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to give them a sense of normality and to help them focus on preparing for a new life when they get out. Many inmates will be released from Halden as fully qualified mechanics, carpenters and chefs.</em>\r\n<em>\"We start planning their release on the first day they arrive,\" explains Hoidal, as we walk through to the carpentry workshop where several inmates are making wooden summer houses and benches to furnish a new prison being built in the south of Norway.</em>\r\n<em>\"In Norway, all will be released - there are no life sentences,\" he reminds me.</em>\r\n<em>\"So we are releasing your neighbour,\" he continues. \"If we treat inmates like animals in prison, then we will release animals on to your street.\"</em>\r\n<em>In the graphic design studio, quietly spoken Fredrik is putting the finishing touches to his striking design for the front cover of the prison\'s cookery book. Sentenced to 15 years for murder, Fredrik says he has struggled to come to terms with what he has done and the pain he has caused. Going on a silent three-week retreat within the prison has helped him achieve peace, he adds, and to reflect on his past.</em>\r\n<em>He is not boasting when he tells me that he\'s achieved a diploma in graphic design since he arrived at Halden, nor that he\'s passed eight other exams at A and B grade and is now studying the Norwegian equivalent of A-level maths and physics; he is just keen that I should understand he is using his time inside wisely for a projected future outside the curved wall.</em>\r\n<em>\"If you don\'t have opportunities and you are just locked in a cage, you don\'t become a good citizen,\" Fredrik says as he adjusts the colours on one of the photos on his screen. \"Here there are good opportunities, you can have a diploma and when you come out, you can maybe get a stable job and that\'s important.\"</em>\r\n<em>Normalising life behind bars (not that there are any bars on the windows at Halden) is the key philosophy that underpins the Norwegian Correctional service. At Halden, this means not only providing daily routines but ensuring family contact is maintained too. Once every three months, inmates with children can apply to a \"Daddy In Prison\" scheme which, if they pass the necessary safeguarding tests, means they can spend a couple of nights with their partner, sons and daughters in a cosy chalet within the prison grounds.</em>\r\n<em>\"Lots of toys and children\'s books,\" points out prison officer Linn Andreassen as she unlocks the gate and shows me the little play garden. I note the double bed in the main bedroom, flanked by a cot.</em>\r\n<em>Linn is a slight young woman in her early 30s. She\'s been in the prison service for 11 years already, 10 of which have been spent at Halden - almost half of the staff at this category A prison are female. But Linn assures me she has sounded the personal alarm that all Norwegian prison officers carry only twice in her career, and insists she has never felt sexually threatened.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s normal to have women in society,\" she shrugs. \"So the guys here need to cope with that. They need to respect not just the uniform but the person, the woman as well. And we respect them, so they respect us.\"</em>', 'How Norway turns criminals into good neighbours', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-norway-turns-criminals-into-good-neighbours', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1504', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1505, 1, '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', 'Author: BBC Correspondent\r\nSource: BBC (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd4c97d0e7&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-48885846</a>)\r\nIt is no surprise that Scandinavian countries often find themselves atop most rankings for human development indices or happiness quotients. Yet this is a fascinating story in the BBC about how Norway treats its prisoners or rather prepares its convicted citizens while in prison to resume a normal life upon completion of the sentence. Like the article says <em>\"In Norway, all will be released - there are no life sentences…So we are releasing your neighbour….If we treat inmates like animals in prison, then we will release animals on to your street.\" </em>From providing a comfortably kitted cell to allowing prisoners to pursue professional courses to allowing a couple of days with family at a chalet within the prison complex to having half of the prison staff as women, Norway’s prisons are intent on rehabilitating its citizens than treating jail time as just punishment. Indeed, it is showing results - repeat offence rates in Norway have dropped to as low as 20% vs 50% in the UK as the author notes.\r\n<em> “every inmate has his own cell, which comes with an en suite toilet and shower room, a fridge, desk, flat TV screen and forest views … immaculate sofas and a well-equipped kitchenette in the communal common room”</em>\r\n<em>\"In Norway, the punishment is just to take away someone\'s liberty. The other rights stay. Prisoners can vote, they can have access to school, to health care; they have the same rights as any Norwegian citizen. Because inmates are human beings. They have done wrong, they must be punished, but they are still human beings.\"</em>\r\n<em>In the on-site garage, two inmates in overalls are tinkering with the wheel arch of a car, brushing out mud and carefully re-fixing bolts. Like most of the prisoners here, they leave their cells at 07:30 each morning and are at work by 08:15. Apart from one hour\'s rest in their cells during the afternoon, to coincide with the guards\' break, they are not locked in again until 20:30 at night.</em>\r\n<em>The idea is to give them a sense of normality and to help them focus on preparing for a new life when they get out. Many inmates will be released from Halden as fully qualified mechanics, carpenters and chefs.</em>\r\n<em>\"We start planning their release on the first day they arrive,\" explains Hoidal, as we walk through to the carpentry workshop where several inmates are making wooden summer houses and benches to furnish a new prison being built in the south of Norway.</em>\r\n<em>\"In Norway, all will be released - there are no life sentences,\" he reminds me.</em>\r\n<em>\"So we are releasing your neighbour,\" he continues. \"If we treat inmates like animals in prison, then we will release animals on to your street.\"</em>\r\n<em>In the graphic design studio, quietly spoken Fredrik is putting the finishing touches to his striking design for the front cover of the prison\'s cookery book. Sentenced to 15 years for murder, Fredrik says he has struggled to come to terms with what he has done and the pain he has caused. Going on a silent three-week retreat within the prison has helped him achieve peace, he adds, and to reflect on his past.</em>\r\n<em>He is not boasting when he tells me that he\'s achieved a diploma in graphic design since he arrived at Halden, nor that he\'s passed eight other exams at A and B grade and is now studying the Norwegian equivalent of A-level maths and physics; he is just keen that I should understand he is using his time inside wisely for a projected future outside the curved wall.</em>\r\n<em>\"If you don\'t have opportunities and you are just locked in a cage, you don\'t become a good citizen,\" Fredrik says as he adjusts the colours on one of the photos on his screen. \"Here there are good opportunities, you can have a diploma and when you come out, you can maybe get a stable job and that\'s important.\"</em>\r\n<em>Normalising life behind bars (not that there are any bars on the windows at Halden) is the key philosophy that underpins the Norwegian Correctional service. At Halden, this means not only providing daily routines but ensuring family contact is maintained too. Once every three months, inmates with children can apply to a \"Daddy In Prison\" scheme which, if they pass the necessary safeguarding tests, means they can spend a couple of nights with their partner, sons and daughters in a cosy chalet within the prison grounds.</em>\r\n<em>\"Lots of toys and children\'s books,\" points out prison officer Linn Andreassen as she unlocks the gate and shows me the little play garden. I note the double bed in the main bedroom, flanked by a cot.</em>\r\n<em>Linn is a slight young woman in her early 30s. She\'s been in the prison service for 11 years already, 10 of which have been spent at Halden - almost half of the staff at this category A prison are female. But Linn assures me she has sounded the personal alarm that all Norwegian prison officers carry only twice in her career, and insists she has never felt sexually threatened.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s normal to have women in society,\" she shrugs. \"So the guys here need to cope with that. They need to respect not just the uniform but the person, the woman as well. And we respect them, so they respect us.\"</em>', 'How Norway turns criminals into good neighbours', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1504-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '2019-07-21 08:16:14', '', 1504, 'http://marcellus.in/1504-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1506, 1, '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', 'Author: Andy Mukherjee\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1aceb6fe92&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-10/singapore-s-temasek-revives-specter-of-secular-stagnation</a>)\r\nTemasek, Singapore’s state investing firm, has in its annual report raised the spectre of “secular stagnation”: <em>“The concept of a persistent downturn that doesn’t respond to easy money featured in the Singapore state investment firm’s annual report for the first time since 2016, one of three possible troubling scenarios alongside a hard landing in China and a severe escalation in trade and tech tensions.”</em>\r\nColumnist Andy Mukherjee says that <em>“If a patient investor with S$313 billion ($230 billion) in assets is barely able to turn in a 1.5% annual return, even with a global remit to invest in both listed and unlisted equity, then other asset owners and money managers will want to know if this is a blip or a potentially permanent shadow over their performance.”</em>\r\nTemasek had flagged secular stagnation as a risk in 2016 but then the Fed started raising rates and the fear faded. Then Jerome Powell took charge of the Fed in December 2018 and started cutting rates again. <em>“For investment bank analysts, it’s time once again to consider the twin effects of an aging global population and the rise of the robotic arm. Pension pools are swelling, but where can they find returns? Certainly not in government bonds: More than $13 trillion of them are trading at negative yields globally. How will wage growth and wage-led demand take root as algorithms make a lot of human work dispensable?”</em>', 'Singapore Sends an Alert to the Investing World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'singapore-sends-an-alert-to-the-investing-world', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1506', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1507, 1, '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', 'Author: Andy Mukherjee\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1aceb6fe92&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-07-10/singapore-s-temasek-revives-specter-of-secular-stagnation</a>)\r\nTemasek, Singapore’s state investing firm, has in its annual report raised the spectre of “secular stagnation”: <em>“The concept of a persistent downturn that doesn’t respond to easy money featured in the Singapore state investment firm’s annual report for the first time since 2016, one of three possible troubling scenarios alongside a hard landing in China and a severe escalation in trade and tech tensions.”</em>\r\nColumnist Andy Mukherjee says that <em>“If a patient investor with S$313 billion ($230 billion) in assets is barely able to turn in a 1.5% annual return, even with a global remit to invest in both listed and unlisted equity, then other asset owners and money managers will want to know if this is a blip or a potentially permanent shadow over their performance.”</em>\r\nTemasek had flagged secular stagnation as a risk in 2016 but then the Fed started raising rates and the fear faded. Then Jerome Powell took charge of the Fed in December 2018 and started cutting rates again. <em>“For investment bank analysts, it’s time once again to consider the twin effects of an aging global population and the rise of the robotic arm. Pension pools are swelling, but where can they find returns? Certainly not in government bonds: More than $13 trillion of them are trading at negative yields globally. How will wage growth and wage-led demand take root as algorithms make a lot of human work dispensable?”</em>', 'Singapore Sends an Alert to the Investing World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '2019-07-21 08:17:01', '', 1506, 'http://marcellus.in/1506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1508, 1, '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', 'Author: The Economist Correspondent\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae0c18792e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/07/18/elon-musk-wants-to-link-brains-directly-to-machines</a>)\r\nThe Economist calls him the “world’s most famous entrepreneur” given his desire to solve the world’s problems, be it climate change, mobility, space travel, urban transportation. Yet his most progressive project, in terms of potential impact on humanity could be Neuralink, his company which last week announced a new Brain-Machine Interface (BMI) that can connect the human brain to computers by implanting electrodes inside the brain  picking up signals (thoughts or instructions) and transmit them to machines to perform tasks. This at one level is intended to make humans achieve their full potential (Musk believes that the human brain’s computing capacity is immense and is only constrained by its input and output capacity i.e, there are only so many books you can read in a lifetime or there is only so much we can speak or write/type). At another level, Musk’s intentions are to prepare humans to compete with machines lest AI lets machines take over the planet. Well, if Neuralink fails, we hope he succeeds with SpaceX to take us all to Mars.\r\n<em>“Connecting brains directly to machines is a long-standing aspiration. And it is already happening, albeit in a crude way. In deep-brain stimulation, for example, neurosurgeons implant a few electrodes into a patient’s brain in order to treat Parkinson’s disease. Utah arrays, collections of 100 conductive silicon needles, are now employed experimentally to record brain waves. A team at the University of Washington has built a “brain-to-brain network” that allows people to play games with each other using just their thoughts. And researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, have captured neural signals from people as they talk, and have then turned that information, via a computer, into intelligible speech.</em>\r\n<em>As with all things Musk-related, Neuralink is much more ambitious. The firm does not just want to develop a better BMI. Its aim is to create a “neural lace”, a mesh of ultra-thin electrodes that capture as much information from the brain as possible. Unsurprisingly, hurdles abound. The electrodes needed to do this must be flexible, so that they do not damage brain tissue and will also last for a long time. They have to number at least in the thousands, to provide sufficient bandwidth. And to make the implantation of so many electrodes safe, painless and effective, the process has to be automated, much like LASIK surgery, which uses lasers to correct eyesight.</em>\r\n<em>Neuralink does indeed seem to have made progress towards these goals. Its presentation, at the California Academy of Sciences, in San Francisco, included videos of a neurosurgical robot that is best described as a sewing machine. This robot grabs “threads” (films, containing electrodes, that measure less than a quarter of the diameter of a human hair), and shoots them deep into the brain through a hole in the skull. It is capable of inserting six threads, each carrying 32 electrodes, per minute. The firm has also designed a chip that can handle signals from as many as 3,072 electrodes—ten times more than the best current systems—and transmit them wirelessly.</em>\r\n<em>The real magic, however, kicks in only when the output is analysed—which happens in real time. Looked at superficially, neurons in the brain seem to fire at random. Software can, though, detect patterns when the individual those neurons are in does certain things. Stick enough electrodes into someone’s motor cortex, for instance, and it is possible to record what happens in the brain when he types on a keyboard or moves a mouse around. Those data can then be used to control a computer directly. Conversely, the electrodes can be employed to stimulate neurons, perhaps to give the person in question the feeling of touching something.</em>\r\n<em>Neuralink has already tested its system successfully on rats and monkeys. These were, it says, able to move cursors on screens with it. The firm now hopes to work with human volunteers, perhaps as early as next year should America’s Food and Drug Administration play along.</em>\r\n<em>The first goal is to use the technology to help people overcome such ailments as blindness and paralysis. Neuralink is, however, clearly aiming for a bigger market than this. It has also designed a small device that would sit behind someone’s ear, picking up signals from the implanted chip and passing them on as appropriate. In a few years, using a brain implant to control your devices may be as de rigueur among San Francisco’s techno-chics as wearing wireless earbuds is today. Ultimately, Mr Musk predicts, neural lace will allow humans to merge with AI systems, thus enabling the species to survive.</em>\r\n<em>Though, as this announcement shows, Mr Musk does have a habit of presenting himself as the saviour of the human race (his desire to settle Mars seems motivated partly by fear of what might, in the future, happen to Earth), the idea that some machines at least will come under the direct control of human brains seems plausible. The biggest obstruction to this happening will probably not be writing the software needed to interpret brainwaves, but rather persuading people that the necessary surgery, whether by sewing machine or otherwise, is actually a good idea.”</em>', 'Elon Musk wants to link brains directly to machines', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'elon-musk-wants-to-link-brains-directly-to-machines', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1508', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1509, 1, '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', 'Author: The Economist Correspondent\r\nSource: The Economist (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae0c18792e&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2019/07/18/elon-musk-wants-to-link-brains-directly-to-machines</a>)\r\nThe Economist calls him the “world’s most famous entrepreneur” given his desire to solve the world’s problems, be it climate change, mobility, space travel, urban transportation. Yet his most progressive project, in terms of potential impact on humanity could be Neuralink, his company which last week announced a new Brain-Machine Interface (BMI) that can connect the human brain to computers by implanting electrodes inside the brain  picking up signals (thoughts or instructions) and transmit them to machines to perform tasks. This at one level is intended to make humans achieve their full potential (Musk believes that the human brain’s computing capacity is immense and is only constrained by its input and output capacity i.e, there are only so many books you can read in a lifetime or there is only so much we can speak or write/type). At another level, Musk’s intentions are to prepare humans to compete with machines lest AI lets machines take over the planet. Well, if Neuralink fails, we hope he succeeds with SpaceX to take us all to Mars.\r\n<em>“Connecting brains directly to machines is a long-standing aspiration. And it is already happening, albeit in a crude way. In deep-brain stimulation, for example, neurosurgeons implant a few electrodes into a patient’s brain in order to treat Parkinson’s disease. Utah arrays, collections of 100 conductive silicon needles, are now employed experimentally to record brain waves. A team at the University of Washington has built a “brain-to-brain network” that allows people to play games with each other using just their thoughts. And researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, have captured neural signals from people as they talk, and have then turned that information, via a computer, into intelligible speech.</em>\r\n<em>As with all things Musk-related, Neuralink is much more ambitious. The firm does not just want to develop a better BMI. Its aim is to create a “neural lace”, a mesh of ultra-thin electrodes that capture as much information from the brain as possible. Unsurprisingly, hurdles abound. The electrodes needed to do this must be flexible, so that they do not damage brain tissue and will also last for a long time. They have to number at least in the thousands, to provide sufficient bandwidth. And to make the implantation of so many electrodes safe, painless and effective, the process has to be automated, much like LASIK surgery, which uses lasers to correct eyesight.</em>\r\n<em>Neuralink does indeed seem to have made progress towards these goals. Its presentation, at the California Academy of Sciences, in San Francisco, included videos of a neurosurgical robot that is best described as a sewing machine. This robot grabs “threads” (films, containing electrodes, that measure less than a quarter of the diameter of a human hair), and shoots them deep into the brain through a hole in the skull. It is capable of inserting six threads, each carrying 32 electrodes, per minute. The firm has also designed a chip that can handle signals from as many as 3,072 electrodes—ten times more than the best current systems—and transmit them wirelessly.</em>\r\n<em>The real magic, however, kicks in only when the output is analysed—which happens in real time. Looked at superficially, neurons in the brain seem to fire at random. Software can, though, detect patterns when the individual those neurons are in does certain things. Stick enough electrodes into someone’s motor cortex, for instance, and it is possible to record what happens in the brain when he types on a keyboard or moves a mouse around. Those data can then be used to control a computer directly. Conversely, the electrodes can be employed to stimulate neurons, perhaps to give the person in question the feeling of touching something.</em>\r\n<em>Neuralink has already tested its system successfully on rats and monkeys. These were, it says, able to move cursors on screens with it. The firm now hopes to work with human volunteers, perhaps as early as next year should America’s Food and Drug Administration play along.</em>\r\n<em>The first goal is to use the technology to help people overcome such ailments as blindness and paralysis. Neuralink is, however, clearly aiming for a bigger market than this. It has also designed a small device that would sit behind someone’s ear, picking up signals from the implanted chip and passing them on as appropriate. In a few years, using a brain implant to control your devices may be as de rigueur among San Francisco’s techno-chics as wearing wireless earbuds is today. Ultimately, Mr Musk predicts, neural lace will allow humans to merge with AI systems, thus enabling the species to survive.</em>\r\n<em>Though, as this announcement shows, Mr Musk does have a habit of presenting himself as the saviour of the human race (his desire to settle Mars seems motivated partly by fear of what might, in the future, happen to Earth), the idea that some machines at least will come under the direct control of human brains seems plausible. The biggest obstruction to this happening will probably not be writing the software needed to interpret brainwaves, but rather persuading people that the necessary surgery, whether by sewing machine or otherwise, is actually a good idea.”</em>', 'Elon Musk wants to link brains directly to machines', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1508-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '2019-07-21 08:17:53', '', 1508, 'http://marcellus.in/1508-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1510, 1, '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', 'Author: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: The Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39df590a14&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/the-generosity-of-true-sportsmen-1563513345806.html</a>)\r\nJust as last Sunday’s double sport madness in London culminated with the insane end to the cricket world cup finals and the rivetting five-setter Wimbledon men’s singles finals, one could crave for how Rohit Brijnath, one of the best writers of sport prose, capture this on paper. Unsurprisingly, he does a brilliant job, taking the real essence in the end (which what most people would consider bitter) – that which every sportsman should take away as a key lesson. The composure of the two protagonists who ended up on the losing side -  Roger Federer and Kane Williamson during the post- match press conference and their eloquence about what it meant to them brought out the best elements of sportsmanship – being graceful in defeat.\r\n<em>“…It is Tuesday morning and I am watching videos of their press conferences again, sifting through their transcripts, reading lines and between them, because—like you perhaps— I am so taken by these men. Grace is a precious thing.</em>\r\n<em>If you haven’t already, watch those videos, it’s like attending a class on perspective, it’s a study in sporting loss, it’s a series of verbal snapshots of pain, resolve, misery, humanness. It’s Williamson never using the word “luck\" and gently pushing away a question about whether the ricochet off Ben Stokes’ bat was a rule that should change. He just answers, and answers, because it’s his job, because he’s a leader, because people want immediate insight, all of us admirers but also voyeurs.</em>\r\n<em>Let’s make copies of these videos and send them to schools, to young athletes, coaches, administrators, parents, teams. Youngsters need to appreciate every part of sport, especially this, the professionalism of showing up and looking the questioner in the eye. The strength that it requires to be honest, to let people glimpse your despair and also witness your conviction. On their worst days, the great athlete is only beaten, not broken.</em>\r\n<em>Federer insists that “for now it hurts and it should\". He bares himself and says: “I don’t know what I feel right now. I just feel like it’s such an incredible opportunity missed, I can’t believe it.\" And yet, as athletes incredibly do, he finds positivity amidst the pieces, and says: “(You) take it on your chin, you move on. You try to forget, try to take the good things out of this match. There’s just tons of it.\"</em>\r\n<em>Someone who doesn’t follow tennis asked, why do people like Federer? One reason is his generosity, his sustained willingness to be a tennis evangelist, his refusal to simply play and leave but in fact speak and expound, advertise his sport and clarify his craft. If he plays 75 matches a year, that means 75 post-match interviews for print writers, in multiple languages, plus radio and television, not to mention one-on-ones, and sometimes pre-event interviews, everyone scrambling for his minutes, assaulting him with familiar questions, and yet he makes an effort to provide a worthy answer.</em>\r\n<em>And so he does on this day, praising Novak Djokovic’s backhand, discussing his schedule, but mostly being a willing participant in this autopsy of his heartbreak. Like Williamson, he’s given enough effort this day but here is more. And so both of them sit there, great athletes tripped by fickleness, toppled by a tiny margin, undone by their own frailties, not gods, just imperfect men bringing dignity to defeat. There is no better way to meet it.</em>\r\n<em>Williamson’s final question is from a journalist who states he’s standing to ask the question because he respects the Kiwi. Then he appears to ask, rather amusingly but sweetly, if Williamson thinks everyone should be a gentleman like him.</em>\r\n<em>“Everybody are allowed to be themselves,\" replies Williamson amidst some hilarity. “That is a good thing about the world. And everybody should be a little bit different as well. Really difficult question to answer. That is probably my best answer, just be yourself and try and enjoy what you do.\"”</em>', 'The Generosity Of True Sportsmen', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-generosity-of-true-sportsmen', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1510', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1511, 1, '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', 'Author: Rohit Brijnath\r\nSource: The Mint (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39df590a14&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/the-generosity-of-true-sportsmen-1563513345806.html</a>)\r\nJust as last Sunday’s double sport madness in London culminated with the insane end to the cricket world cup finals and the rivetting five-setter Wimbledon men’s singles finals, one could crave for how Rohit Brijnath, one of the best writers of sport prose, capture this on paper. Unsurprisingly, he does a brilliant job, taking the real essence in the end (which what most people would consider bitter) – that which every sportsman should take away as a key lesson. The composure of the two protagonists who ended up on the losing side -  Roger Federer and Kane Williamson during the post- match press conference and their eloquence about what it meant to them brought out the best elements of sportsmanship – being graceful in defeat.\r\n<em>“…It is Tuesday morning and I am watching videos of their press conferences again, sifting through their transcripts, reading lines and between them, because—like you perhaps— I am so taken by these men. Grace is a precious thing.</em>\r\n<em>If you haven’t already, watch those videos, it’s like attending a class on perspective, it’s a study in sporting loss, it’s a series of verbal snapshots of pain, resolve, misery, humanness. It’s Williamson never using the word “luck\" and gently pushing away a question about whether the ricochet off Ben Stokes’ bat was a rule that should change. He just answers, and answers, because it’s his job, because he’s a leader, because people want immediate insight, all of us admirers but also voyeurs.</em>\r\n<em>Let’s make copies of these videos and send them to schools, to young athletes, coaches, administrators, parents, teams. Youngsters need to appreciate every part of sport, especially this, the professionalism of showing up and looking the questioner in the eye. The strength that it requires to be honest, to let people glimpse your despair and also witness your conviction. On their worst days, the great athlete is only beaten, not broken.</em>\r\n<em>Federer insists that “for now it hurts and it should\". He bares himself and says: “I don’t know what I feel right now. I just feel like it’s such an incredible opportunity missed, I can’t believe it.\" And yet, as athletes incredibly do, he finds positivity amidst the pieces, and says: “(You) take it on your chin, you move on. You try to forget, try to take the good things out of this match. There’s just tons of it.\"</em>\r\n<em>Someone who doesn’t follow tennis asked, why do people like Federer? One reason is his generosity, his sustained willingness to be a tennis evangelist, his refusal to simply play and leave but in fact speak and expound, advertise his sport and clarify his craft. If he plays 75 matches a year, that means 75 post-match interviews for print writers, in multiple languages, plus radio and television, not to mention one-on-ones, and sometimes pre-event interviews, everyone scrambling for his minutes, assaulting him with familiar questions, and yet he makes an effort to provide a worthy answer.</em>\r\n<em>And so he does on this day, praising Novak Djokovic’s backhand, discussing his schedule, but mostly being a willing participant in this autopsy of his heartbreak. Like Williamson, he’s given enough effort this day but here is more. And so both of them sit there, great athletes tripped by fickleness, toppled by a tiny margin, undone by their own frailties, not gods, just imperfect men bringing dignity to defeat. There is no better way to meet it.</em>\r\n<em>Williamson’s final question is from a journalist who states he’s standing to ask the question because he respects the Kiwi. Then he appears to ask, rather amusingly but sweetly, if Williamson thinks everyone should be a gentleman like him.</em>\r\n<em>“Everybody are allowed to be themselves,\" replies Williamson amidst some hilarity. “That is a good thing about the world. And everybody should be a little bit different as well. Really difficult question to answer. That is probably my best answer, just be yourself and try and enjoy what you do.\"”</em>', 'The Generosity Of True Sportsmen', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1510-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '2019-07-21 08:19:50', '', 1510, 'http://marcellus.in/1510-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1526, 1, '2019-07-28 10:55:57', '2019-07-28 10:55:57', 'Author: Isaac Asimov\r\nSource: MIT Technology Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8e720a11d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.technologyreview.com/s/531911/isaac-asimov-asks-how-do-people-get-new-ideas/</a>)\r\nA 1959 essay by Isaac Asimov about Creativity -what makes creative people succeed, how to identify people with a creative bent of mind, how to form a team of creative people and how to incentivise such teams. From creating new art forms to new scientific discoveries, the world needs people to come up with new ideas that takes mankind forward. However, creativity is not just a requirement in the world of art and science. Even in our own world of investing, we find Asimov’s thoughts quite apt for identifying talent and also the process of investment management itself – especially a) the ability to draw from a diverse pot of knowledge, making connections and developing new insight and b) the need to think contrarian and question conventional wisdom.\r\nOn the former, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea recently wrote in his blog about the best exponent of this theory – Charlie Munger (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=892452495d&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>).\r\n<em>“One way of investigating the problem is to consider the great ideas of the past and see just how they were generated. Unfortunately, the method of generation is never clear even to the “generators” themselves. But what if the same earth-shaking idea occurred to two men, simultaneously and independently? Perhaps, the common factors involved would be illuminating. Consider the theory of evolution by natural selection, independently created by Charles Darwin and Alfred Wallace.</em>\r\n<em>There is a great deal in common there. Both traveled to far places, observing strange species of plants and animals and the manner in which they varied from place to place. Both were keenly interested in finding an explanation for this, and both failed until each happened to read Malthus’s “Essay on Population.”</em>\r\n<em>Both then saw how the notion of overpopulation and weeding out (which Malthus had applied to human beings) would fit into the doctrine of evolution by natural selection (if applied to species generally).</em>\r\n<em>Obviously, then, what is needed is not only people with a good background in a particular field, but also people capable of making a connection between item 1 and item 2 which might not ordinarily seem connected.</em>\r\n<em>Undoubtedly in the first half of the 19th century, a great many naturalists had studied the manner in which species were differentiated among themselves. A great many people had read Malthus. Perhaps some both studied species and read Malthus. But what you needed was someone who studied species, read Malthus, and had the ability to make a cross-connection.</em>\r\n<em>That is the crucial point that is the rare characteristic that must be found. Once the cross-connection is made, it becomes obvious. Thomas H. Huxley is supposed to have exclaimed after reading On the Origin of Species, “How stupid of me not to have thought of this.”</em>\r\n<em>But why didn’t he think of it? The history of human thought would make it seem that there is difficulty in thinking of an idea even when all the facts are on the table. Making the cross-connection requires a certain daring. It must, for any cross-connection that does not require daring is performed at once by many and develops not as a “new idea,” but as a mere “corollary of an old idea.”</em>\r\n<em>It is only afterward that a new idea seems reasonable. To begin with, it usually seems unreasonable. It seems the height of unreason to suppose the earth was round instead of flat, or that it moved instead of the sun, or that objects required a force to stop them when in motion, instead of a force to keep them moving, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>A person willing to fly in the face of reason, authority, and common sense must be a person of considerable self-assurance. Since he occurs only rarely, he must seem eccentric (in at least that respect) to the rest of us. A person eccentric in one respect is often eccentric in others.</em>\r\n<em>Consequently, the person who is most likely to get new ideas is a person of good background in the field of interest and one who is unconventional in his habits. (To be a crackpot is not, however, enough in itself.)</em>\r\n<em>…If a single individual present is unsympathetic to the foolishness that would be bound to go on at such a session, the others would freeze. The unsympathetic individual may be a gold mine of information, but the harm he does will more than compensate for that. It seems necessary to me, then, that all people at a session be willing to sound foolish and listen to others sound foolish…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Isaav Asimov Asks, \"How Do People Get New Ideas?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'isaav-asimov-asks-how-do-people-get-new-ideas', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:58:53', '2019-07-28 10:58:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1526', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1527, 1, '2019-07-28 10:55:57', '2019-07-28 10:55:57', 'Author: Isaac Asimov\r\nSource: MIT Technology Review (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8e720a11d0&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.technologyreview.com/s/531911/isaac-asimov-asks-how-do-people-get-new-ideas/</a>)\r\nA 1959 essay by Isaac Asimov about Creativity -what makes creative people succeed, how to identify people with a creative bent of mind, how to form a team of creative people and how to incentivise such teams. From creating new art forms to new scientific discoveries, the world needs people to come up with new ideas that takes mankind forward. However, creativity is not just a requirement in the world of art and science. Even in our own world of investing, we find Asimov’s thoughts quite apt for identifying talent and also the process of investment management itself – especially a) the ability to draw from a diverse pot of knowledge, making connections and developing new insight and b) the need to think contrarian and question conventional wisdom.\r\nOn the former, my colleague Saurabh Mukherjea recently wrote in his blog about the best exponent of this theory – Charlie Munger (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=892452495d&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>).\r\n<em>“One way of investigating the problem is to consider the great ideas of the past and see just how they were generated. Unfortunately, the method of generation is never clear even to the “generators” themselves. But what if the same earth-shaking idea occurred to two men, simultaneously and independently? Perhaps, the common factors involved would be illuminating. Consider the theory of evolution by natural selection, independently created by Charles Darwin and Alfred Wallace.</em>\r\n<em>There is a great deal in common there. Both traveled to far places, observing strange species of plants and animals and the manner in which they varied from place to place. Both were keenly interested in finding an explanation for this, and both failed until each happened to read Malthus’s “Essay on Population.”</em>\r\n<em>Both then saw how the notion of overpopulation and weeding out (which Malthus had applied to human beings) would fit into the doctrine of evolution by natural selection (if applied to species generally).</em>\r\n<em>Obviously, then, what is needed is not only people with a good background in a particular field, but also people capable of making a connection between item 1 and item 2 which might not ordinarily seem connected.</em>\r\n<em>Undoubtedly in the first half of the 19th century, a great many naturalists had studied the manner in which species were differentiated among themselves. A great many people had read Malthus. Perhaps some both studied species and read Malthus. But what you needed was someone who studied species, read Malthus, and had the ability to make a cross-connection.</em>\r\n<em>That is the crucial point that is the rare characteristic that must be found. Once the cross-connection is made, it becomes obvious. Thomas H. Huxley is supposed to have exclaimed after reading On the Origin of Species, “How stupid of me not to have thought of this.”</em>\r\n<em>But why didn’t he think of it? The history of human thought would make it seem that there is difficulty in thinking of an idea even when all the facts are on the table. Making the cross-connection requires a certain daring. It must, for any cross-connection that does not require daring is performed at once by many and develops not as a “new idea,” but as a mere “corollary of an old idea.”</em>\r\n<em>It is only afterward that a new idea seems reasonable. To begin with, it usually seems unreasonable. It seems the height of unreason to suppose the earth was round instead of flat, or that it moved instead of the sun, or that objects required a force to stop them when in motion, instead of a force to keep them moving, and so on.</em>\r\n<em>A person willing to fly in the face of reason, authority, and common sense must be a person of considerable self-assurance. Since he occurs only rarely, he must seem eccentric (in at least that respect) to the rest of us. A person eccentric in one respect is often eccentric in others.</em>\r\n<em>Consequently, the person who is most likely to get new ideas is a person of good background in the field of interest and one who is unconventional in his habits. (To be a crackpot is not, however, enough in itself.)</em>\r\n<em>…If a single individual present is unsympathetic to the foolishness that would be bound to go on at such a session, the others would freeze. The unsympathetic individual may be a gold mine of information, but the harm he does will more than compensate for that. It seems necessary to me, then, that all people at a session be willing to sound foolish and listen to others sound foolish…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Isaav Asimov Asks, \"How Do People Get New Ideas?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1526-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 10:55:57', '2019-07-28 10:55:57', '', 1526, 'http://marcellus.in/1526-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1528, 1, '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', 'Author: Allison Schrager\r\nSource: The Scroll (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=91424914c9&amp;e=5648501957\">https://scroll.in/article/928505/an-economist-walks-into-a-brothel-and-comes-back-with-lessons-in-financial-risk</a>)\r\nCentral to our investment philosophy is the idea of reducing risk to the extent we can, as elaborated in our blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ac669b74a1&amp;e=5648501957\">“Crushing risk is more rewarding than chasing returns”</a>. Allison Schrager, an economist and journalist has delved deep into the world of risk in her book <em>“An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk”. </em>Allison ventures into ‘unusual markets’ to understand how professionals like sex workers, big wave surfers, celebrity paparazzi deal with risk in their lives and see if we can draw learnings for traditional industries. She says<em> “Unusual markets often provide the clearest insight into how risk is assessed, bought, and sold. Because nothing is hidden in markets like sex work, the subtleties that exist in all markets are made obvious. This is why we can learn the most by studying how business is conducted at the edges of the economy and ap- ply that knowledge to more typical economic transactions.” </em>A direct read across to investing is about how risk is valued in the stock market. <em>“In most areas of economics, value is based on scarcity. It doesn’t work quite the same way in financial economics. Financial economics assumes risk is also a critical component of value. Goods that lessen risk tend to cost more. This critical piece of information can revolutionise the way you assess everyday decisions and help you make better, more informed choices.” </em>Prospective investors often are concerned whether our portfolio stocks are priced to perfection. The fact these companies are run by clean promoters (low risk of minority shareholders getting a raw deal), sell essential goods (low risk of demand fluctuations) and are monopolists (low risk of margin fluctuations) needs to get reflected in their valuations whether through lower equity risk premiums in your DCF or any other preferred technique. What makes it less of an exact science is the challenge in quantifying each of these risks. Allison’s book provides some answers from the most unexpected places.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'An economist walks into a brothel and comes back with lessons in financial risk', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'an-economist-walks-into-a-brothel-and-comes-back-with-lessons-in-financial-risk', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1528', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1529, 1, '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', 'Author: Allison Schrager\r\nSource: The Scroll (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=91424914c9&amp;e=5648501957\">https://scroll.in/article/928505/an-economist-walks-into-a-brothel-and-comes-back-with-lessons-in-financial-risk</a>)\r\nCentral to our investment philosophy is the idea of reducing risk to the extent we can, as elaborated in our blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ac669b74a1&amp;e=5648501957\">“Crushing risk is more rewarding than chasing returns”</a>. Allison Schrager, an economist and journalist has delved deep into the world of risk in her book <em>“An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk”. </em>Allison ventures into ‘unusual markets’ to understand how professionals like sex workers, big wave surfers, celebrity paparazzi deal with risk in their lives and see if we can draw learnings for traditional industries. She says<em> “Unusual markets often provide the clearest insight into how risk is assessed, bought, and sold. Because nothing is hidden in markets like sex work, the subtleties that exist in all markets are made obvious. This is why we can learn the most by studying how business is conducted at the edges of the economy and ap- ply that knowledge to more typical economic transactions.” </em>A direct read across to investing is about how risk is valued in the stock market. <em>“In most areas of economics, value is based on scarcity. It doesn’t work quite the same way in financial economics. Financial economics assumes risk is also a critical component of value. Goods that lessen risk tend to cost more. This critical piece of information can revolutionise the way you assess everyday decisions and help you make better, more informed choices.” </em>Prospective investors often are concerned whether our portfolio stocks are priced to perfection. The fact these companies are run by clean promoters (low risk of minority shareholders getting a raw deal), sell essential goods (low risk of demand fluctuations) and are monopolists (low risk of margin fluctuations) needs to get reflected in their valuations whether through lower equity risk premiums in your DCF or any other preferred technique. What makes it less of an exact science is the challenge in quantifying each of these risks. Allison’s book provides some answers from the most unexpected places.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'An economist walks into a brothel and comes back with lessons in financial risk', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1528-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '2019-07-28 11:04:48', '', 1528, 'http://marcellus.in/1528-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1530, 1, '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', 'Author: Faye Flam\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b50845b78c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/save-on-drug-costs-by-identifying-the-pills-that-don-t-work</a>)\r\nIt turns out that most of the drugs we pay for don’t actually work very well. To make matters worse, they actually have negative side effects! <em>“Buried among the mediocre drugs are a few that do add years of life or alleviate significant suffering. Clarifying which ones really are lifesavers – such as insulin, drugs for HIV and hepatitis C – would help get those drugs to the people who need them, and help spare everyone from unnecessary medication.”</em>\r\nThere is also growing evidence regarding the power of pharma companies to promote needless drug use. Data from America shows <em>“The number of prescriptions being written has tripled in the last 15 years, but this has not been matched by a tripling of the number of miracle cures and magic bullets. How are we consumers to know which drugs we really need? Drug companies skew statistics and market heavily to make their products sound much safer and more effective than they really are…Many products that are heavily advertised are overrated. The drug industry spends approximately $30 billion a year on marketing. Ad campaigns can “raise public awareness” of problems that were essentially invented to sell drugs. Consider the blockbuster eye drop Restasis, which has very little effect on anyone’s eyes. Ad campaigns scared people into thinking they had “dry eye syndrome” and risked”. Another popular campaign convinced healthy men to take testosterone by raising awareness of “Low-T of aging,” though the risks of taking the drug are likely to outweigh benefits for those without certain health conditions.”</em>\r\nSo how does the pharma industry promote needless use of drugs? Answer: wine &amp; dine doctors. <em>“Some of that $30 billion marketing money goes to influencing physicians. Many receive generous speaking fees, are taken on junkets, or are named “influencers” and treated to fancy dinners and luxurious hotels. Psychologists who study conflicts of interest have shown how this has an insidious effect: Doctors think they are not being influenced by their industry benefactors, but they do prescribe more of those companies’ drugs. The press can also boost marketing by parroting statistics put out by industry press releases, some of which are true but misleading. In “Doctoring Data,” physician Malcolm Kendrick shows how a study can be spun to suggest a drug will save 50,000 lives, but the same data can be read to say that of 200 people taking the drug, 199 will get no benefit and the other one will live only several months longer. The more impressive number of “saved” lives is derived from assuming that millions of people will take the drug and that a couple of extra months counts as a saved life. Such calculations often fail to note that giving drugs to that many people often causes more harm, through side effects, than good.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Save on Drug Costs! Ditch Useless Pills !', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'save-on-drug-costs-ditch-useless-pills', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1530', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1531, 1, '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', 'Author: Faye Flam\r\nSource: Bloomberg (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b50845b78c&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.bloombergquint.com/opinion/save-on-drug-costs-by-identifying-the-pills-that-don-t-work</a>)\r\nIt turns out that most of the drugs we pay for don’t actually work very well. To make matters worse, they actually have negative side effects! <em>“Buried among the mediocre drugs are a few that do add years of life or alleviate significant suffering. Clarifying which ones really are lifesavers – such as insulin, drugs for HIV and hepatitis C – would help get those drugs to the people who need them, and help spare everyone from unnecessary medication.”</em>\r\nThere is also growing evidence regarding the power of pharma companies to promote needless drug use. Data from America shows <em>“The number of prescriptions being written has tripled in the last 15 years, but this has not been matched by a tripling of the number of miracle cures and magic bullets. How are we consumers to know which drugs we really need? Drug companies skew statistics and market heavily to make their products sound much safer and more effective than they really are…Many products that are heavily advertised are overrated. The drug industry spends approximately $30 billion a year on marketing. Ad campaigns can “raise public awareness” of problems that were essentially invented to sell drugs. Consider the blockbuster eye drop Restasis, which has very little effect on anyone’s eyes. Ad campaigns scared people into thinking they had “dry eye syndrome” and risked”. Another popular campaign convinced healthy men to take testosterone by raising awareness of “Low-T of aging,” though the risks of taking the drug are likely to outweigh benefits for those without certain health conditions.”</em>\r\nSo how does the pharma industry promote needless use of drugs? Answer: wine &amp; dine doctors. <em>“Some of that $30 billion marketing money goes to influencing physicians. Many receive generous speaking fees, are taken on junkets, or are named “influencers” and treated to fancy dinners and luxurious hotels. Psychologists who study conflicts of interest have shown how this has an insidious effect: Doctors think they are not being influenced by their industry benefactors, but they do prescribe more of those companies’ drugs. The press can also boost marketing by parroting statistics put out by industry press releases, some of which are true but misleading. In “Doctoring Data,” physician Malcolm Kendrick shows how a study can be spun to suggest a drug will save 50,000 lives, but the same data can be read to say that of 200 people taking the drug, 199 will get no benefit and the other one will live only several months longer. The more impressive number of “saved” lives is derived from assuming that millions of people will take the drug and that a couple of extra months counts as a saved life. Such calculations often fail to note that giving drugs to that many people often causes more harm, through side effects, than good.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Save on Drug Costs! Ditch Useless Pills !', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1530-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '2019-07-28 11:05:42', '', 1530, 'http://marcellus.in/1530-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1532, 1, '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', 'Author: John Naughton\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b19867cc26&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/14/the-networker-customer-data-liability-not-asset-british-airways-ico-fine-leak-marriott-hotel-group</a>)\r\nOil, which was once considered as indispensable to the economy is witnessing a reversal of fortune. Environmental costs of digging up and burning oil have forced humans to look for renewable sources of energy and now talks are when will renewable source of energy will overtake oil. Countries heavily dependent on oil for generating revenues are looking to diversify and reduce its dependence on oil revenue. Today data is considered to be the new oil and companies are falling over each other to generate and control data.\r\n<em>“Data is the new oil” is a tired metaphor designed to capture the fact that, just as the old economy ran on oil, so the new digital economy runs on data. Just as plentiful reserves of underground oil were good for oil companies, so the possession of masses of data would likewise be a great asset for tech companies lucky enough to have it. And whether or not they count it explicitly as an asset on their balance sheets, in practice it gives them a powerful bulwark against competitors and startups. It’s no longer enough for a couple of grad students to come up with a better search algorithm than Google’s, for example; they would also have to build a global network of massive server farms – and have acquired exabytes of data. So possession of large quantities of data greatly heightens the barrier to entry for competitors and thereby strengthens incumbents. The more data you have, the better.”</em>\r\nHowever, storing and protecting data is not easy as we have seen major data breaches across big companies. If you are not able to protect the data then it becomes toxic and your strength becomes your weakness.\r\n<em>“UK Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) had fined the Marriott hotel chain £99.2m for a data breach that happened in November 2018. The breach involved the theft of 500 million customer records from the company’s guest reservation database. A few days earlier, the ICO had imposed a fine of £183m on British Airways for a breach that had leaked the data of half a million users.”</em>\r\nCompanies will continue to spend heavily on safeguarding data or else it will meet the same fate as that of oil – you have it but cannot use it.\r\n<em> “.. The ICO’s recent fines, however, cast a shadow on this cosy scene. Possessing oodles of data is only an unalloyed good if you can protect it from thieves, hackers and other criminals. If you can’t, then that precious asset can suddenly turn toxic – just like fossil fuel reserves. And as a result your balance sheet no longer looks quite as inviting to investors. Apart from the reputational damage – public humiliation, exposure of corporate incompetence, etc – there is also the matter of the fines. Prior to the EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), many of the penalties levied by data-protection authorities were risible, especially to large companies. But under the GDPR the bill can run to 4% of global turnover. As the man said, a billion here and a billion there and soon you’re talking real money. More important, however, the centrality of data in the tech economy provides a useful indicator of where the main levers for regulation may lie. Facebook (with global revenues of $55.838bn in 2018) could easily absorb a 4% fine ($2.23bn). But if regulators insisted that it had to open up its data trove to competitors then that would really hurt. Also, the announcement two weeks ago that the UK Competition and Markets Authority is embarking on a major investigation into the hidden data trading markets that underpin both Facebook’s and Google’s current prosperity suggests that – finally – governments are beginning to flex their muscles for the coming fray with the tech giants. It’s taken an age for this to happen, but better late than never.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Like fossil fuel in the ground, customer data may soon be a liability, not an asset', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'like-fossil-fuel-in-the-ground-customer-data-may-soon-be-a-liability-not-an-asset', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1532', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1533, 1, '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', 'Author: John Naughton\r\nSource: The Guardian (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b19867cc26&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/14/the-networker-customer-data-liability-not-asset-british-airways-ico-fine-leak-marriott-hotel-group</a>)\r\nOil, which was once considered as indispensable to the economy is witnessing a reversal of fortune. Environmental costs of digging up and burning oil have forced humans to look for renewable sources of energy and now talks are when will renewable source of energy will overtake oil. Countries heavily dependent on oil for generating revenues are looking to diversify and reduce its dependence on oil revenue. Today data is considered to be the new oil and companies are falling over each other to generate and control data.\r\n<em>“Data is the new oil” is a tired metaphor designed to capture the fact that, just as the old economy ran on oil, so the new digital economy runs on data. Just as plentiful reserves of underground oil were good for oil companies, so the possession of masses of data would likewise be a great asset for tech companies lucky enough to have it. And whether or not they count it explicitly as an asset on their balance sheets, in practice it gives them a powerful bulwark against competitors and startups. It’s no longer enough for a couple of grad students to come up with a better search algorithm than Google’s, for example; they would also have to build a global network of massive server farms – and have acquired exabytes of data. So possession of large quantities of data greatly heightens the barrier to entry for competitors and thereby strengthens incumbents. The more data you have, the better.”</em>\r\nHowever, storing and protecting data is not easy as we have seen major data breaches across big companies. If you are not able to protect the data then it becomes toxic and your strength becomes your weakness.\r\n<em>“UK Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) had fined the Marriott hotel chain £99.2m for a data breach that happened in November 2018. The breach involved the theft of 500 million customer records from the company’s guest reservation database. A few days earlier, the ICO had imposed a fine of £183m on British Airways for a breach that had leaked the data of half a million users.”</em>\r\nCompanies will continue to spend heavily on safeguarding data or else it will meet the same fate as that of oil – you have it but cannot use it.\r\n<em> “.. The ICO’s recent fines, however, cast a shadow on this cosy scene. Possessing oodles of data is only an unalloyed good if you can protect it from thieves, hackers and other criminals. If you can’t, then that precious asset can suddenly turn toxic – just like fossil fuel reserves. And as a result your balance sheet no longer looks quite as inviting to investors. Apart from the reputational damage – public humiliation, exposure of corporate incompetence, etc – there is also the matter of the fines. Prior to the EU’s GDPR (General Data Protection Regulation), many of the penalties levied by data-protection authorities were risible, especially to large companies. But under the GDPR the bill can run to 4% of global turnover. As the man said, a billion here and a billion there and soon you’re talking real money. More important, however, the centrality of data in the tech economy provides a useful indicator of where the main levers for regulation may lie. Facebook (with global revenues of $55.838bn in 2018) could easily absorb a 4% fine ($2.23bn). But if regulators insisted that it had to open up its data trove to competitors then that would really hurt. Also, the announcement two weeks ago that the UK Competition and Markets Authority is embarking on a major investigation into the hidden data trading markets that underpin both Facebook’s and Google’s current prosperity suggests that – finally – governments are beginning to flex their muscles for the coming fray with the tech giants. It’s taken an age for this to happen, but better late than never.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Like fossil fuel in the ground, customer data may soon be a liability, not an asset', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1532-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '2019-07-28 11:06:33', '', 1532, 'http://marcellus.in/1532-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1534, 1, '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', 'Author: Jim Carlton\r\nSource: The Wall Street Journal (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2eb0c810bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/instagram-turns-obscure-u-s-sights-into-social-media-destinations-11562410801</a>)\r\nInternet and internet companies like Instagram, Facebook, etc have made access to data/information very easy and have helped people across the world come more close. People are sharing their information on a real time basis and one of the unexpected beneficiaries out of it is the tourism sector. People are sharing photos of their vacations on social sites and indirectly turning obscure places into social-media destinations. Horseshoe Bend (a 1,000-foot drop-off at a natural attraction), part of the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area in Page, Arizona has witnessed huge surge in tourist arrivals (two million visit annually Vs 40,000 people annually decade ack) due to people posting their pictures in front of Horsebend on social media.\r\n<em>“Visits to U.S. national parks increased 11.6% between 2009 and 2018, according to government statistics. They jumped even more at places such as Utah’s Zion National Park (up 59%) and Arizona’s Grand Canyon National Park (up 49%), which park advocates say have been among the most popular for social media posts.”</em>\r\nHowever, unplanned growth brings with it many challenges like environmental, safety and traffic.\r\n<em>“Across the U.S., smartphone-wielding masses are converging on picturesque attractions that many learned of on social media. The teeming crowds are creating problems that range from traffic to trash to deaths. Five people have fallen off the edge of Horseshoe Bend and died since 2017. The last such fatality had been in 2010, according to National Park Service statistics. People have also fallen while taking pictures at the Grand Canyon and Yosemite. California’s Big Sur coast and Colorado’s Hanging Lake have been soiled by trampling of vegetation and discarded human waste.”</em>\r\nSocial media is here to stay and we will have to learn to manage the negatives of it &amp; keep adapting ourself.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Instagram Turns Obscure U.S. Sights Into Social-Media Destinations', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'instagram-turns-obscure-u-s-sights-into-social-media-destinations', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1534', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1535, 1, '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', 'Author: Jim Carlton\r\nSource: The Wall Street Journal (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2eb0c810bc&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/instagram-turns-obscure-u-s-sights-into-social-media-destinations-11562410801</a>)\r\nInternet and internet companies like Instagram, Facebook, etc have made access to data/information very easy and have helped people across the world come more close. People are sharing their information on a real time basis and one of the unexpected beneficiaries out of it is the tourism sector. People are sharing photos of their vacations on social sites and indirectly turning obscure places into social-media destinations. Horseshoe Bend (a 1,000-foot drop-off at a natural attraction), part of the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area in Page, Arizona has witnessed huge surge in tourist arrivals (two million visit annually Vs 40,000 people annually decade ack) due to people posting their pictures in front of Horsebend on social media.\r\n<em>“Visits to U.S. national parks increased 11.6% between 2009 and 2018, according to government statistics. They jumped even more at places such as Utah’s Zion National Park (up 59%) and Arizona’s Grand Canyon National Park (up 49%), which park advocates say have been among the most popular for social media posts.”</em>\r\nHowever, unplanned growth brings with it many challenges like environmental, safety and traffic.\r\n<em>“Across the U.S., smartphone-wielding masses are converging on picturesque attractions that many learned of on social media. The teeming crowds are creating problems that range from traffic to trash to deaths. Five people have fallen off the edge of Horseshoe Bend and died since 2017. The last such fatality had been in 2010, according to National Park Service statistics. People have also fallen while taking pictures at the Grand Canyon and Yosemite. California’s Big Sur coast and Colorado’s Hanging Lake have been soiled by trampling of vegetation and discarded human waste.”</em>\r\nSocial media is here to stay and we will have to learn to manage the negatives of it &amp; keep adapting ourself.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Instagram Turns Obscure U.S. Sights Into Social-Media Destinations', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1534-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '2019-07-28 11:07:41', '', 1534, 'http://marcellus.in/1534-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1536, 1, '2019-07-30 05:44:18', '2019-07-30 05:44:18', '<em>Published on:30 July, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Indian NBFCs are struggling not because of lack of liquidity in the system but because the money market has lost faith in most NBFCs’ balance sheets and in the credit rating agencies’ ratings. Hence rather than cutting CRR/SLR/repo rate, the RBI should vet the balance sheets of the NBFCs and make the findings public. A “voluntary AQR” for the 50 largest NBFCs will reverse the ongoing crisis.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>A guide to how NBFCs function across the world</strong>\r\nThe business model of a non-bank lender is and always has been straightforward, in India and abroad. The lender has equity of $10 and borrows $90 (debt:equity of 9x) from the wholesale money market (say, at the run rate of $45 every six months).\r\n\r\nThis $100 is then lent at a certain interest rate either to people who want to buy flats (20 year home loans) or to a developer who wants to construct residential housing blocks (5 year developer loans) or to consumers who want to buy cars, trucks, TVs (2-3 year loans). Most of the interest collected from these borrowers goes to the wholesale money market participants who gave the NBFC the $90. Assuming a spread between the two interest rates of 3%, gives the NBFC a gross profit of $3 on the $100 it has lent.\r\n\r\nWith that $3, the NBFC pays for its operating costs (assume 50 cents) and for bad debts (i.e. for borrowers who do not repay). Assuming it is a well-run NBFC, the bad debts could be as little 50 cents. That means that on $100 of loans (funded by a mere $10 of equity), the NBFC will make a profit of $2 (3 – 0.50 – 0.50). That results in a very impressive Return on Equity of 20% (2 / 10), enough to convince almost every fund manager in India to seek a stake in the said NBFC.\r\n\r\nThen one day, one of the developers (who has been lent, say, just $2) says that he cannot repay. So the NBFC takes possession of the half constructed building that the developer has erected but can’t find any buyers for the skeletal structure. That year the NBFC’s profits go to zero as the normal operating profit of $2 is wiped out by the developer’s default. Next month, the wholesale money market – unnerved by the NBFC’s zero profits – refuses to extend its usual $45 to the NBFC; rather it coughs up only $25. This is not enough for the NBFC to rollover its existing debt.\r\n\r\nSince the NBFC’s shareholders’ equity is only $10, the NBFC is now left insufficient funds. It can do one of two things: (1) raise more equity (which would heavily dilute the current shareholders but protect the wholesale money market lenders who have lent money to the NBFC); or (2) default on the monies that it owes the wholesale market (which completely wipes out the current shareholders and the wholesale money market lenders). [The above text is taken from our 20<sup>th</sup> October 2018 note on how fund managers get fooled into investing in NBFCs: see <a href=\"/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>The significance of NBFCs and HFCs in India</strong>\r\nIndian NBFCs and HFCs account for 23% of loans outstanding in the country at the end of FY19, up from 15% of loans outstanding at the end of FY15 (throughout this note, we will use the abbreviation NBFCs to refer to NBFCs and HFCs). However, their importance is even more pronounced in two specific sectors – NBFCs account for 21% of the credit outstanding to SMEs and 54% of loans outstanding to the real estate sector as on 31<sup>st</sup> December, 2018. It is well known that NBFCs provide credit to that part of the Indian economy where the private sector banks prefer not to lend (either because the risks are too high or because the returns are too low).\r\n\r\nIt is therefore unfortunate that in the wake of the IL&amp;FS debacle, NBFCs are increasingly finding it hard to access funding. The reason for this is not hard to find. Unlike banks, NBFCs credit growth has been fueled largely by borrowings from the banks and from the capital and money markets. In particular, NBFCs were accessing half of their funding from the mutual funds by issuing Commercial Papers (CPs) and Certificates of Deposits (CDs). Between FY14 and FY18, the share of CPs within the borrowing mix doubled for NBFCs while it tripled for HFCs. Due to relatively lower costs, the sharp rise in share of CP borrowings had a positive effect on the cost of funds and margins for NBFCs. However, it increased vulnerability to asset liability mismatches (ALM; this refers to the fact that these lenders have short dated borrowings and long dated assets).\r\n\r\nIn specific, if the NBFC is unable to rollover or refinance the CPs, solvency issues arise, and growth is adversely impacted (as explained at the beginning of the note). The NBFCs\' growth over FY14-18 was fueled by this huge influx of capital from multiple sources. This was owing to their perceived capability to grow ahead of the system and tap lending opportunities to under-served segments and geographies. The IL&amp;FS debacle materially damaged the sector’s image and squeezed the flow of capital to the sector.\r\n\r\nFurther, the rating agencies have belatedly downgraded the debt papers of some of these lenders, making it even more difficult for them to raise funds from banks or MFs. While mutual funds are not allowed to lend to firms rated below B, the threshold for insurance firms and pension funds is set at AA. .\r\n\r\nThe shortage of funding for these lenders is having a direct impact on economic growth which has in the past 6 months slowed down to a decadal low. More specifically, auto sales are falling sharply, the real estate sector (historically, the largest creator of jobs in India) continues to struggle and channel financing is becoming hard to come by for everything from electrical equipment to undergarments.\r\n\r\n<strong>How can the RBI remedy the situation?</strong>\r\nAs noted before, NBFCs were accessing half of their funding from the mutual funds by issuing CPs &amp; CDs. Since the mutual funds are finding it more difficult now to rely upon the ratings disbursed by credit rating agencies and they no longer trust the stated balance sheets of the NBFCs, the mutual funds no longer  want to buy CPs and CDs. Thus the NBFCs are thus deprived of incremental funding which in turn is jamming economic activity amongst SMEs, auto manufactures and real estate developers.\r\n\r\n<u>A potential solution which can break this logjam is announcement of a “Voluntary AQR” scheme by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). </u>The RBI gave birth to the AQR (Asset Quality Review) when 4 years ago when it announced that all banks’ balance sheets will be scrutinised to assess if the banks are understating their Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). The six month long exercise found that several prominent banks were indeed understating their NPAs by a significant margin. In the wake of this development, CEOs of prominent banks resigned from their posts. Several of these banks have since raised fresh equity capital. Gradually, the financial markets are recovering their faith in the banks’ balance sheets.\r\n\r\nWhat the RBI did to the banks can be called a compulsory AQR. At this juncture, NBFCs are in no financial position to be subjected to a compulsory AQR. Instead, what should be considered is a carrot and stick approach called voluntary AQR wherein NBFCs who opt to subject themselves to the RBI’s AQR are given a lower regulatory capital requirement (RCR) once the RBI has cleansed their balance sheet. More specifically, the RCR can be lowered in a targeted manner by giving the lenders lower regulatory risk weights for lending to economically sensitive sectors such as SMEs, affordable housing (say, homes below Rs 50 lakhs) and auto (say vehicles below Rs 10 lakhs).\r\n\r\nGiven that the annual audit cycle is done, the RBI should be able to hire on a temporary basis, auditors from the large Tax &amp; Audit firms who specialise in auditing Banks &amp; Financial Services companies. Moreover, if the goal is to get the economy back on track, the RBI can focus the voluntary AQR exercise on the top 20 HFCs and the top 50 NBFCs [the smaller lenders are unlikely to be disbursing significant amounts of credit from the perspective of the economy].\r\n\r\nA voluntary AQR will allow the better run, cleaner NBFCs to signal their quality to the CP and CD market; in simple English, it will separate the wheat from the chaff. This in turn will encourage the mutual funds and large corporate treasuries to buy the CPs and CDs issued by the NBFCs who pass the voluntary AQR. These NBFCs will then be able to resume lending activity thus arresting the ongoing decline in economic growth.\r\n\r\nWhy should the better run NBFCs submit to voluntary AQR? Because of the carrot of lower regulatory capital requirements which in turn implies higher leverage, higher Return on Equity, better valuations and thus a chance to raise capital on better terms. To paraphrase the Godfather, that will be an offer which very few NBFCs will be able to refuse.\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The RBI Can Reverse the NBFC Crisis', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-rbi-can-reverse-the-nbfc-crisis', '', '', '2019-11-15 09:39:44', '2019-11-15 09:39:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1536', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1989, 1, '2019-10-23 09:29:50', '2019-10-23 09:29:50', '<table class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlockOuter\">\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\n<table class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_2301802153652381622mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\"><strong>Inspite of the origins of meditation in the East, it is Western investors who are highlighting to a sceptical world the significant benefits that meditation confers upon practitioners whose day jobs are highly stressful. </strong>\n\n<em>“I am so busy today that…I am going to meditate for two hours instead of one.”</em> ― <strong><em>Mahatma Gandhi</em></strong>\n\n<strong>Meditation: definitions &amp; origins</strong>\nMeditation is a practice where an individual trains her attention to achieve a clear, calm and stable state-of-mind. The Dalai Lama believes that meditation and prayer have similar benefits. However, my reading of the subject suggests that there are two differences between meditation and prayer. Firstly, meditation is, in general, a more advanced form of concentrating and focusing the mind than prayer. Secondly, whilst prayer has as its focus either a god or a deity, meditation – especially in its more advanced forms – cam be about completely blanking out the mind.\n\nThe recorded origins of meditation are usually traced to the Chinese and Indian civilisations although it also appears highly likely that people elsewhere in the ancient world had also clocked onto the benefits of this simple but powerful practice. As John Selby says in “Seven Masters, One Path: Meditation Secrets from the World\'s Greatest Teachers” (2003):\n<em>“Several thousands of years ago, among the…the Taoist culture of ancient China, the judging, analytical thinking mind was already correctly identified as the perpetrator not only of our particularly human blessings in life, but also of our particularly human curses. They understood clearly that…we humans have gained vast powers to think logically, reflect upon past experiences, and manipulate the world to our advantage. However, because thinking is a past-future function of the mind, we have tended to lose touch with the vital experience of participating spontaneously in the present moment. </em>\n<em>Meditation aims to resolve this “lost in thought” dilemma as we temporarily distance ourselves from the constant barrage of thoughts from our inner virtual reality, and shift into a deeper consciousness. By learning to calmly watch thoughts flowing through our minds without being attached to those thoughts, we liberate ourselves from chronic identification with our ego’s limited notion of what life is all about…In the Taoist tradition, when we quiet our thoughts in meditation, we let go of trying to manipulate the world based on our inner fantasies of how things should be.”</em>\n\n<strong>What are the work-related benefits of meditation?</strong>\nOne legendary investor, Ray Dalio, and another highly successful albeit lesser known investor, Jason Voss, have written extensively about how meditation has helped them become better investors (Dalio in his book “Principles” (2016) and Voss in his book “The Intuitive Investor” (2010). When I bumped into Jason last year and asked him how meditation had helped him, he pointed me towards John Selby’s excellent book which is referenced above. What follows in this section is a summary of what I have learnt from these three books and from my chats with Jason Voss. The benefits of meditation - going from the most basic to the most advanced - appear to be:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>Stress relief and recovery from difficult experiences</strong>: This is the most commonly cited benefit of meditation. Normally, mental and physical stress causes increased levels of cortisol (also called the primary stress hormone). Cortisol in turn promotes depression and anxiety and disrupts sleep. Scientific studies show that meditation reduces stress and cortisone. Effectively, meditation has the opposite effect - on the body &amp; the mind – as an adrenaline rush (which increases your heart rate, elevates your blood pressure and boosts energy levels). As a result, meditation plays a dual role of not only providing relief from a stressful experience but also helping in the rejuvenation &amp; recovery process (via lower cortisol, less anxiety and better sleep).</li>\n 	<li><strong>Clarity of thought and greater focus</strong>: Uncluttering our mind so that we can think more clearly, even if we are facing time pressure and/or financial pressure, is clearly a valuable skill to have. Psychologists are increasingly of the view that one of the best ways to regulate your body and your emotions is through meditation. In fact, research shows that meditation not only improves your health, it also strengthens your mental muscle especially your ability to focus and concentrate. A brain imaging study by Massachusetts General Hospital found physical changes in the brain after an eight-week meditation course. Researchers identified increased activity in parts of the brain associated with learning, memory, self-awareness, compassion, and introspection as well as decreased activity in the amygdala.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Higher level thinking and creative ideas</strong>: According to Jason Voss meditation allows you<em>“access to creativity, intuition and wealth manifestation. Exploration of this topic opens up an entirely new world, one rich with skills for making you richer.”</em> In other words, by subduing your ego and your sense of self, meditation allows more creative thoughts to bubble up to the forefront of your mind. To quote from Ray Dalio’s book ‘Principles’, <em>“I also came to understand that while some subconscious parts of our brains are dangerously animalistic, other are smarter and quicker than our conscious minds. Our greatest moments of inspiration often “pop” up from our subconscious. We experience these creative breakthroughs when we are relaxed and not trying to access the part of the brain in which they reside, which is generally the neocortex. When you say, “I just thought of something”, you noticed your subconscious mind telling your consciousness mind something.”</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Greater ability to work co-operatively: </strong>Regardless of how talented we might be, successful professional endeavor almost always involve working in collaboration with other people. Unfortunately, our education system and the general ethos of capitalism focuses on our identity as individuals. That in turn inhibits the extent to which we are voluntarily willing to collaborate with others. Life, especially in the Financial Services profession, seems to hinge around chasing greater pay &amp; perks. Meditation helps you to de-emphasise your own role and what rewards you will get from your efforts. That in turn makes it easier for you to work with others for their benefit. Ironically, that is a far more efficient way to move forward in the world rather than barging forward Gordon “Greed is Good” Gekko style (see ‘Wall Street’ (1987)).</li>\n</ol>\n<strong>So how does one meditate in the midst of a packed schedule? </strong>\nThe <strong>beginner’s format</strong> for meditation simply focuses on using a basic technique to either distract or relax your conscious mind (where your ego resides).  Here is my basic technique to meditate on flights and car journeys – I close my eyes and count backwards from 100 to zero whilst trying to visualise each number as I call the number out in your mind. The reverse counting is a way of distracting my ego and thus letting the mind enter a more relaxed mode. Practising this technique on a daily basis for even ten minutes allows you to gain control of your mind to such an extent that soon you will be able to meditate at a time and a place of your choosing.\n\nThe more <strong>advanced formats</strong> involves concentrating in one or more long sessions (of an hour or more) each day. This often involves chanting as the technique being used to distract the egoic mind. The effort then is to focus the mind on the mantra that you are chanting and hold that focus for very long periods of time. It is hard to do but Dalio and Voss swear by these advanced meditation techniques and the way these techniques have helped them become better investors and better human beings.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a >http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.   </em>\n\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved    </em>\n\n&nbsp;</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'Marcellus: Can Meditation Help Us at Work?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '841-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 09:29:50', '2019-10-23 09:29:50', '', 841, 'http://marcellus.in/841-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1552, 1, '2019-11-19 06:29:17', '2019-11-19 06:29:17', '<em>Published on:7 August, 2019</em>\n<strong>The Government of India allowed Marcellus to incorporate as a private limited company on 7<sup>th</sup> August 2018. We have enjoyed serving our 500 clients – in India and abroad – over the past year. We thank our clients for their support and aim to continue compounding their wealth for many years to come. On our first anniversary, we felt it was appropriate to share with you a significant element of our mental transition over the past year.  </strong>\n\n<em>“Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.” – <strong>Charlie Munger</strong></em>\n\n<strong>Epiphany at an investment conference</strong>\nLast week someone made the mistake of inviting me to speak at an investment conference in Mumbai. Once I had suitably riled the audience, I exited the venue only to find myself pursued by a salesman from one the financial data vending shops. The salesman was under the misapprehension that I was still the CEO of an investment bank which was spending well in excess of US$150K per annum on financial data. I disabused him of this notion and disappointed him with the factoid that Marcellus’ financial data budget is $1.5K per annum, a figure which would just about pay for the smartphone which the salesman was sporting.\n\nOnce the salesman had abandoned me for more fruitful quarries, I pondered during my taxi ride home as to why with a 99% drop in my colleagues’ financial data spend we at Marcellus actually feel happier in terms of our relationship with the stockmarket and why the drop in financial data spend had not impacted our investment performance (so far).\n\nMy conclusion - self-serving as it might be for a group which is more interested in psychology, forensic accounting, history, economics and corporate strategy - is that being on top of whatever it is that is happening in financial markets actually doesn’t count for much. Whilst it probably makes one feel busy as one peers into those big screens, it rarely generates investment insight. So, why is this the case?\n\n<strong>Being market savvy is the least important driver of investment success</strong>\nThe English poet DH Lawrence once noted that if we stare at a map long enough <em>“The map appears to us more real than the land”</em>. Extending the metaphor to market data, if one stares at share prices, P/E multiples, central bank pronouncements and quarterly results long enough, the financial market appears to be more real (and more relevant) to an investor than the real world. Taken to its extreme, the obsession with prices and high frequency data becomes a kind of psychological disorder wherein investor loses all sense of perspective of the real world and builds algorithms to trade basis smoke signals being generated tick-by-tick by the financial market.\n\nIn their different ways, Buffett, Munger and John Bogle understood this form of psychosis earlier than other investors and built varied investment methods to capitalise on this insight (that focusing on financial markets per se does not generate wealth). Buffett &amp; Munger popularised the notion of delving deep into the sustainable competitive advantages of a company and understanding the quality of its accounts. Bogle’s insight was even more profound.\n\nBogle took Paul Samuelson’s Efficient Markets theory to heart and was amongst the first executives in the mutual fund industry to fully understand its profound implication, namely, it makes little or no sense to pay juicy fees to a fund manager to manage your money given that the fund manager has little or no chance of consistently beating the market. Thus was born Bogle’s breakthrough idea – in 1975 Vanguard launched the world\'s first index mutual fund. Instead of beating the index and charging high fees, the index fund would mimic the index performance over the long run—thus achieving higher returns with lower costs than the costs associated with actively managed funds.\n\nDaniel Kahneman’s famous “System 1 vs System 2” framework (from ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’ (2011)) can also be used to understand why being on top of stockmarket data does little to generate wealth or happiness. Brian Portnoy in his enjoyable book ‘The Geometry of Wealth: How to shape a life of money &amp; meaning’ (2018) explains why System 1 – which he calls our fast brain i.e. the part of the brain most exposed to financial market data – leads to poor decision making:\n<em>“The fast brain loves consistency. It is biased to confirm beliefs and see patterns even when they don’t exist. It shies away from ambiguity and doubt. It accepts given categories and isn’t fond of thinking in terms of probability, preferring specific predictions. It anchors on what you already think you know and ignores evidence that is hard to find. In Kahneman’s terms, ‘what you see is all there is’.”</em>\n\nNotice the similarity between Kahneman\'s insight (highlighted by last sentence of Portnoy’s para) and the DH Lawrence quote cited earlier in the note – financial markets create an illusory world which can drown those who immerse themselves in market data. This in turn leads to investment mirages such as the one we had highlighted in our 20<sup>th</sup> October 2018 blog on Indian NBFCs – see <a href=\"/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/fooled-by-probabilities-and-by-indian-nbfcs/</a>\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nI don’t have a single financial market app or social media app on my phone (which itself is a battered four year old thing). When I need to check prices I go to the stock exchange website using my phone and that process takes 20-30 seconds. That time lag switches off my fast brain/System 1. Most of my colleagues access stock price data using similar techniques. Only our trader has ready access to real time prices.\n\nOur five analysts (plus the three interns who work with us) share one terminal from a Indian financial data provider. The terminal’s main function is to give us in digital form financial statements for around 5000 Indian companies going back around 20 years. My colleagues take turns to use this terminal. The delay in accessing the terminal in turn slows down the impulse to drown in data.\n\nAll of this gives us ample time to read Annual Reports and books. Not only does that make bookworms like me happy, it also gives us a better chance of generating insights. We believe insights which make money tend to come from extensive reading, thinking and in-depth discussions with well-informed people (ideally people who see the world from a different vantage point from our own).\n\nWe have also invested in a hot water kettle, a big jar of coffee and noise cancelling headsets as we find that these are more useful than financial market data in generating investment insights. In contrast, absorbing loads of market data and crunching massive datasets is a good way to spend time but as highlighted in my 18<sup>th</sup> July blog, that rarely generate insights which people like us can use to make money for our 500 clients: see <a href=\"/blogs/small-data-is-more-important-than-big-data/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/small-data-is-more-important-than-big-data/</a>\n\nThe Government of India allowed Marcellus Investment Managers to incorporate as a private limited company on 7<sup>th</sup> August 2018. We have had the time of our lives serving our 500 clients – in India and abroad – over the past 12 months. We thank our clients for their support and aim to continue com­pounding their wealth for many years to come.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Being Market Savvy Doesn\'t Help Very Much', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1551-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:29:17', '2019-11-19 06:29:17', '', 1551, 'http://marcellus.in/1551-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2480, 1, '2019-11-19 06:30:20', '2019-11-19 06:30:20', '', 'Private Limited', 'Incorporation of a private limited company', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'private-limited', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:30:20', '2019-11-19 06:30:20', '', 1551, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Being-Market-Savvy-Doesn’t-Help-Very-Much.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1553, 1, '2019-08-07 07:08:06', '2019-08-07 07:08:06', 'The Ritholz machine keeps providing us good material to read and learn from. In this piece, they list five pieces of wisdom which are supposed to be the gospel truth but are actually bad for your financial health.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> Stocks are riskier than bonds:</strong> <em>“One-month U.S. Treasury bills, often put in the risk-free bucket, went 68 years with a negative real return. Sure stocks can kill you fast, but bonds can kill you slowly.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>2. Gold is a good hedge against inflation:</strong> <em>“This makes sense in theory, but it is not always the case in reality. If gold did provide a hedge against inflation, you would expect the two to be at least somewhat correlated…starting in 1980, a decade after rampant inflation and amazing returns for gold, but still, over the last 40 years, this conventional wisdom has not held up well.”</em>\r\n<strong>3. If you can time the economy, you can time the stockmarket:</strong> <em>“…it turns out that knowing when a recession starts is a great signal to get out of stocks. Problem is you can never know in real time when a where you are in the business cycle, but that’s another story for another day.”</em>\r\n<strong>4. Stocks crash from all-time highs:</strong> <em>“Since 1927, there have been 202 monthly closing highs in the S&amp;P 500. There have been 4 market crashes. That’s a lot of time spent worrying about something that happens 2% of the time. All-time highs are generally more of a green light than a red one.”</em>\r\n<strong>5. Your house is a good investment:</strong> <em>“According to Shiller’s data, this simply isn’t true. Real home prices went nowhere for 100 years. I am not suggesting home ownership is bad in any way, but there is this idea that you buy a house, sell it after thirty years, take your gains and retire to a beach. The truth is closer to what my friend Morgan Housel once said: “A house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.’”</em>', 'Opposite of Conventional Wisdom', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'opposite-of-conventional-wisdom', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:08:31', '2019-08-07 07:08:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1553', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1554, 1, '2019-08-07 07:08:06', '2019-08-07 07:08:06', 'The Ritholz machine keeps providing us good material to read and learn from. In this piece, they list five pieces of wisdom which are supposed to be the gospel truth but are actually bad for your financial health.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> Stocks are riskier than bonds:</strong> <em>“One-month U.S. Treasury bills, often put in the risk-free bucket, went 68 years with a negative real return. Sure stocks can kill you fast, but bonds can kill you slowly.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>2. Gold is a good hedge against inflation:</strong> <em>“This makes sense in theory, but it is not always the case in reality. If gold did provide a hedge against inflation, you would expect the two to be at least somewhat correlated…starting in 1980, a decade after rampant inflation and amazing returns for gold, but still, over the last 40 years, this conventional wisdom has not held up well.”</em>\r\n<strong>3. If you can time the economy, you can time the stockmarket:</strong> <em>“…it turns out that knowing when a recession starts is a great signal to get out of stocks. Problem is you can never know in real time when a where you are in the business cycle, but that’s another story for another day.”</em>\r\n<strong>4. Stocks crash from all-time highs:</strong> <em>“Since 1927, there have been 202 monthly closing highs in the S&amp;P 500. There have been 4 market crashes. That’s a lot of time spent worrying about something that happens 2% of the time. All-time highs are generally more of a green light than a red one.”</em>\r\n<strong>5. Your house is a good investment:</strong> <em>“According to Shiller’s data, this simply isn’t true. Real home prices went nowhere for 100 years. I am not suggesting home ownership is bad in any way, but there is this idea that you buy a house, sell it after thirty years, take your gains and retire to a beach. The truth is closer to what my friend Morgan Housel once said: “A house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.’”</em>', 'Opposite of Conventional Wisdom', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1553-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:08:06', '2019-08-07 07:08:06', '', 1553, 'http://marcellus.in/1553-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1555, 1, '2019-08-07 07:08:15', '2019-08-07 07:08:15', 'The Ritholz machine keeps providing us good material to read and learn from. In this piece, they list five pieces of wisdom which are supposed to be the gospel truth but are actually bad for your financial health.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong> Stocks are riskier than bonds:</strong> <em>“One-month U.S. Treasury bills, often put in the risk-free bucket, went 68 years with a negative real return. Sure stocks can kill you fast, but bonds can kill you slowly.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>2. Gold is a good hedge against inflation:</strong> <em>“This makes sense in theory, but it is not always the case in reality. If gold did provide a hedge against inflation, you would expect the two to be at least somewhat correlated…starting in 1980, a decade after rampant inflation and amazing returns for gold, but still, over the last 40 years, this conventional wisdom has not held up well.”</em>\r\n<strong>3. If you can time the economy, you can time the stockmarket:</strong> <em>“…it turns out that knowing when a recession starts is a great signal to get out of stocks. Problem is you can never know in real time when a where you are in the business cycle, but that’s another story for another day.”</em>\r\n<strong>4. Stocks crash from all-time highs:</strong> <em>“Since 1927, there have been 202 monthly closing highs in the S&amp;P 500. There have been 4 market crashes. That’s a lot of time spent worrying about something that happens 2% of the time. All-time highs are generally more of a green light than a red one.”</em>\r\n<strong>5. Your house is a good investment:</strong> <em>“According to Shiller’s data, this simply isn’t true. Real home prices went nowhere for 100 years. I am not suggesting home ownership is bad in any way, but there is this idea that you buy a house, sell it after thirty years, take your gains and retire to a beach. The truth is closer to what my friend Morgan Housel once said: “A house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.’”</em>', 'Opposite of Conventional Wisdom', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1553-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:08:15', '2019-08-07 07:08:15', '', 1553, 'http://marcellus.in/1553-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1556, 1, '2019-08-07 07:09:44', '2019-08-07 07:09:44', 'This well written article says that American corporations are spending trillions of dollars to repurchase their own stock. <em>“The practice is enriching CEOs—at the expense of everyone else.”</em>\r\nIt wasn’t always thus – buybacks are a recent fad. <em>“Before the 1980s, corporations rarely repurchased shares of their own stock. When they started to, it was typically a defensive move intended to fend off raiders, who were drawn to cash piles on a company’s balance sheet. By contrast, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Goldman Sachs, over the past nine years, corporations have put more money into their own stocks—an astonishing $3.8 trillion—than every other type of investor (individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, foreign investors) combined.”</em>\r\nSo why do companies buyback their own shares? Finance 101 says that <em>“By reducing the number of shares outstanding in the market, a buyback lifts the price of each remaining share.”</em> But the challenge is that this share price spike is shortlived. <em>“A study by the research firm Fortuna Advisors found that, five years out, the stocks of companies that engaged in heavy buybacks performed worse for shareholders than the stocks of companies that didn’t.”</em>\r\nThe real reason that companies do buybacks has nothing to do with shareholders. <em>“One class of shareholder, however, has benefited greatly from the temporary price jumps: the managers who initiate buybacks and are privy to their exact scope and timing. Last year, SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Jr. instructed his staff to “take a look at how buybacks affect how much skin executives keep in the game.” This analysis revealed that in the eight days following a buyback announcement, executives on average sold five times as much stock as they had on an ordinary day. “Thus,” Jackson said, “executives personally capture the benefit of the short-term stock-price pop created by the buyback announcement.””</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give some great examples of what look like seriously questionable buybacks: <em>“Today, the abuse of stock buybacks is so widespread that naming abusers is a bit like singling out snowflakes for ruining the driveway. But somebody needs to be called out.</em>\r\n<em>So take Craig Menear, the chairman and CEO of Home Depot. On a conference call with investors in February 2018, he and his team mentioned their “plan to repurchase approximately $4 billion of outstanding shares during the year.” The next day, he sold 113,687 shares, netting $18 million.* The following day, he was granted 38,689 new shares, and promptly unloaded 24,286 shares for a profit of $4.5 million. Though Menear’s stated compensation in SEC filings was $11.4 million for 2018, stock sales helped him earn an additional $30 million for the year.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, the median worker pay at Home Depot is $23,000 a year. If the money spent on buybacks had been used to boost salaries, the Roosevelt Institute and the National Employment Law Project calculated, each worker would have made an additional $18,000 a year. But buybacks are more than just unfair. They’re myopic. Amazon (which hasn’t repurchased a share in seven years) is presently making the sort of investments in people, technology, and products that could eventually make Home Depot irrelevant. When that happens, Home Depot will probably wish it hadn’t spent all those billions to buy back 35 percent of its shares. “When you’ve got a mature company, when everything seems to be going smoothly, that’s the exact moment you need to start worrying Jeff Bezos is going to start eating your lunch,” the shareholder activist Nell Minow told me.”</em>', 'The Stock-Buyback Swinde', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-stock-buyback-swinde', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:33:58', '2019-11-06 10:33:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1556', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1557, 1, '2019-08-07 07:09:44', '2019-08-07 07:09:44', 'This well written article says that American corporations are spending trillions of dollars to repurchase their own stock. <em>“The practice is enriching CEOs—at the expense of everyone else.”</em>\r\nIt wasn’t always thus – buybacks are a recent fad. <em>“Before the 1980s, corporations rarely repurchased shares of their own stock. When they started to, it was typically a defensive move intended to fend off raiders, who were drawn to cash piles on a company’s balance sheet. By contrast, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Goldman Sachs, over the past nine years, corporations have put more money into their own stocks—an astonishing $3.8 trillion—than every other type of investor (individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, foreign investors) combined.”</em>\r\nSo why do companies buyback their own shares? Finance 101 says that <em>“By reducing the number of shares outstanding in the market, a buyback lifts the price of each remaining share.”</em> But the challenge is that this share price spike is shortlived. <em>“A study by the research firm Fortuna Advisors found that, five years out, the stocks of companies that engaged in heavy buybacks performed worse for shareholders than the stocks of companies that didn’t.”</em>\r\nThe real reason that companies do buybacks has nothing to do with shareholders. <em>“One class of shareholder, however, has benefited greatly from the temporary price jumps: the managers who initiate buybacks and are privy to their exact scope and timing. Last year, SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Jr. instructed his staff to “take a look at how buybacks affect how much skin executives keep in the game.” This analysis revealed that in the eight days following a buyback announcement, executives on average sold five times as much stock as they had on an ordinary day. “Thus,” Jackson said, “executives personally capture the benefit of the short-term stock-price pop created by the buyback announcement.””</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give some great examples of what look like seriously questionable buybacks: <em>“Today, the abuse of stock buybacks is so widespread that naming abusers is a bit like singling out snowflakes for ruining the driveway. But somebody needs to be called out.</em>\r\n<em>So take Craig Menear, the chairman and CEO of Home Depot. On a conference call with investors in February 2018, he and his team mentioned their “plan to repurchase approximately $4 billion of outstanding shares during the year.” The next day, he sold 113,687 shares, netting $18 million.* The following day, he was granted 38,689 new shares, and promptly unloaded 24,286 shares for a profit of $4.5 million. Though Menear’s stated compensation in SEC filings was $11.4 million for 2018, stock sales helped him earn an additional $30 million for the year.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, the median worker pay at Home Depot is $23,000 a year. If the money spent on buybacks had been used to boost salaries, the Roosevelt Institute and the National Employment Law Project calculated, each worker would have made an additional $18,000 a year. But buybacks are more than just unfair. They’re myopic. Amazon (which hasn’t repurchased a share in seven years) is presently making the sort of investments in people, technology, and products that could eventually make Home Depot irrelevant. When that happens, Home Depot will probably wish it hadn’t spent all those billions to buy back 35 percent of its shares. “When you’ve got a mature company, when everything seems to be going smoothly, that’s the exact moment you need to start worrying Jeff Bezos is going to start eating your lunch,” the shareholder activist Nell Minow told me.”</em>', 'The Stock-Buyback Swinde', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1556-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:09:44', '2019-08-07 07:09:44', '', 1556, 'http://marcellus.in/1556-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1558, 1, '2019-08-07 07:31:32', '2019-08-07 07:31:32', 'Indian auto stocks have taken a serious beating off late with concerns not just on the current cyclical decline in sales (perhaps the industry’s worst ever downturn) but also the threat of disruptions for the future – electric, autonomous, ride-sharing, etc. Well, the concerns are global in nature and perhaps the history of automobiles  can provide some cues. In this thoroughly enjoyable read, Nathan Heller looks at two books on the automobile industry to help understand America’s association with the automobile over the years, its impact  on society, culture, politics in general and perhaps extend this evolution into the future to get a sense which way we are headed. The two books Nathan discusses in this piece are Dan Albert’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72c3da125b&amp;e=5648501957\">Are We There Yet?: The American Automobile Past, Present, and Driverless</a>,”  and Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85a37e7a6e&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>”.\r\nIt is fascinating to know from Albert that indeed, electric cars were not just a reality as early as the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century but were considered the mainstay. Not just that, the first adoption of mass market use of automobiles was in ride sharing mode. Now, over a century later, both ideas of electric cars and ride sharing are back in the reckoning. As Albert explains, how privately-owned gasoline powered cars took off eventually turns out to be an absolute random event.\r\n<em>“….in the late nineteenth century, electric cars and gasoline cars developed side by side. One assumes that electrics were only notionally in the running at this stage. Surprisingly, Albert reports, gas cars were the B-fleet for years.</em>\r\n<em>Turn-of-the-century electric cars were more maneuverable than their gasoline-powered counterparts. They had faster acceleration, better braking, and powerful torque, which compensated for the heft of their batteries. They set land-speed records—in 1902, an electric car briefly attained an astonishing hundred and two miles per hour—and, unlike internal-combustion vehicles, didn’t sputter out in traffic and need to be cranked up in the middle of the road…. </em>\r\n<em>“The internal-combustion car that had to be coaxed and muscled to life, with its lubes and explosions and thrusting pistons, that would be the car for men,” Albert writes. Electrics—quiet, practical, and, in one engineer’s estimation, “tame”—took on female associations. Not for the last time, the makers of gas cars didn’t so much win the market as create a market they could win. The triumph of gas engines entailed a shift in the whole transportation model—from shared cars to privately owned cars, from an extension of the metropolitan network to a vehicle that required infrastructure of its own. “Had this period of random technological mutation selected for the electric, the social history of America would be unrecognizable,” Albert notes”</em>\r\n<em>…A clearer way to think about the future can be found in Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fdaf7c74bc&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>,” written with Karen Kelly. Schwartz is known to New Yorkers of a certain age as Gridlock Sam, owing to his role, in the nineteen-eighties, as New York City’s traffic commissioner and, later, as the Department of Transportation’s chief engineer. It was he who took credit for turning the West Side Highway from a groaning overpass to a riverside boulevard. He also implemented early bike lanes and, in 1971, designed the failed “red zone,” which would have banned cars in midtown from late morning to midafternoon. Schwartz approaches the future much as he approaches traffic—as a complex, dynamic system—and his book emerges as a clearheaded bible for the twenty-first-century road. Historically, he argues, planning favored car interests over “actual traffic habits.” With driverless cars zooming into view, he sees a chance to do the planning properly for the first time.</em>\r\n<em>….Many drivers regard autonomous cars as a pervert technology, like sex robots or Nespresso machines, and plan to reject the things as soon as they show up. In reality, self-driving cars are likely to overtake the market through a gradual shift in norms and features, a process that, Albert and Schwartz agree, has already begun. Many drivers today cede way-finding to apps like Waze, which draws on the hive-mind intelligence of other vehicles to ease bottlenecks and dodge perils. Some cars now brake to avoid collision if the driver fails to, and many ping at you, like a better driver in the back seat, if you drift too close to danger.</em>\r\n<em>This human-proofing, far from throwing off the rhythms of the road, has increased safety, by most evidence, which is no surprise. Commercial airplanes are what we’d call self-driving except at takeoff and landing, and the result is that it’s now nearly impossible for a cruising jet to fall out of the sky without malice or a series of compounding errors by the pilots. (Lethal computer glitches are so rare that if they appear even twice among tens of millions of flights, as in the case of Boeing’s 737 max 8, the industry goes into crisis.) People get the willies at the idea of putting their lives in the hands of computers, but there’s every reason to think that, as far as transportation goes, we’re safer in their care.”</em>', 'Was the Automotive Era a Terrible Mistake?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'was-the-automotive-era-a-terrible-mistake', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:24:03', '2019-11-06 10:24:03', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1558', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1559, 1, '2019-08-07 07:31:32', '2019-08-07 07:31:32', 'Indian auto stocks have taken a serious beating off late with concerns not just on the current cyclical decline in sales (perhaps the industry’s worst ever downturn) but also the threat of disruptions for the future – electric, autonomous, ride-sharing, etc. Well, the concerns are global in nature and perhaps the history of automobiles  can provide some cues. In this thoroughly enjoyable read, Nathan Heller looks at two books on the automobile industry to help understand America’s association with the automobile over the years, its impact  on society, culture, politics in general and perhaps extend this evolution into the future to get a sense which way we are headed. The two books Nathan discusses in this piece are Dan Albert’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72c3da125b&amp;e=5648501957\">Are We There Yet?: The American Automobile Past, Present, and Driverless</a>,”  and Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85a37e7a6e&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>”.\r\nIt is fascinating to know from Albert that indeed, electric cars were not just a reality as early as the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century but were considered the mainstay. Not just that, the first adoption of mass market use of automobiles was in ride sharing mode. Now, over a century later, both ideas of electric cars and ride sharing are back in the reckoning. As Albert explains, how privately-owned gasoline powered cars took off eventually turns out to be an absolute random event.\r\n<em>“….in the late nineteenth century, electric cars and gasoline cars developed side by side. One assumes that electrics were only notionally in the running at this stage. Surprisingly, Albert reports, gas cars were the B-fleet for years.</em>\r\n<em>Turn-of-the-century electric cars were more maneuverable than their gasoline-powered counterparts. They had faster acceleration, better braking, and powerful torque, which compensated for the heft of their batteries. They set land-speed records—in 1902, an electric car briefly attained an astonishing hundred and two miles per hour—and, unlike internal-combustion vehicles, didn’t sputter out in traffic and need to be cranked up in the middle of the road…. </em>\r\n<em>“The internal-combustion car that had to be coaxed and muscled to life, with its lubes and explosions and thrusting pistons, that would be the car for men,” Albert writes. Electrics—quiet, practical, and, in one engineer’s estimation, “tame”—took on female associations. Not for the last time, the makers of gas cars didn’t so much win the market as create a market they could win. The triumph of gas engines entailed a shift in the whole transportation model—from shared cars to privately owned cars, from an extension of the metropolitan network to a vehicle that required infrastructure of its own. “Had this period of random technological mutation selected for the electric, the social history of America would be unrecognizable,” Albert notes”</em>\r\n<em>…A clearer way to think about the future can be found in Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fdaf7c74bc&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>,” written with Karen Kelly. Schwartz is known to New Yorkers of a certain age as Gridlock Sam, owing to his role, in the nineteen-eighties, as New York City’s traffic commissioner and, later, as the Department of Transportation’s chief engineer. It was he who took credit for turning the West Side Highway from a groaning overpass to a riverside boulevard. He also implemented early bike lanes and, in 1971, designed the failed “red zone,” which would have banned cars in midtown from late morning to midafternoon. Schwartz approaches the future much as he approaches traffic—as a complex, dynamic system—and his book emerges as a clearheaded bible for the twenty-first-century road. Historically, he argues, planning favored car interests over “actual traffic habits.” With driverless cars zooming into view, he sees a chance to do the planning properly for the first time.</em>\r\n<em>….Many drivers regard autonomous cars as a pervert technology, like sex robots or Nespresso machines, and plan to reject the things as soon as they show up. In reality, self-driving cars are likely to overtake the market through a gradual shift in norms and features, a process that, Albert and Schwartz agree, has already begun. Many drivers today cede way-finding to apps like Waze, which draws on the hive-mind intelligence of other vehicles to ease bottlenecks and dodge perils. Some cars now brake to avoid collision if the driver fails to, and many ping at you, like a better driver in the back seat, if you drift too close to danger.</em>\r\n<em>This human-proofing, far from throwing off the rhythms of the road, has increased safety, by most evidence, which is no surprise. Commercial airplanes are what we’d call self-driving except at takeoff and landing, and the result is that it’s now nearly impossible for a cruising jet to fall out of the sky without malice or a series of compounding errors by the pilots. (Lethal computer glitches are so rare that if they appear even twice among tens of millions of flights, as in the case of Boeing’s 737 max 8, the industry goes into crisis.) People get the willies at the idea of putting their lives in the hands of computers, but there’s every reason to think that, as far as transportation goes, we’re safer in their care.”</em>', 'Was the Automotive Era a Terrible Mistake?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1558-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:31:32', '2019-08-07 07:31:32', '', 1558, 'http://marcellus.in/1558-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1560, 1, '2019-08-07 07:32:48', '2019-08-07 07:32:48', 'At the core of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders investment philosophy is identifying monopolistic franchises which dominate their industries for long periods of time. Therefore, the returns from the stocks in those sectors are also likely to be concentrated around these monopolies. Commentators on the Indian stock market have also recently lamented that returns have been restricted to a handful of stocks and how there is no ‘market breadth’. Turns out we are not the only concentrated market in the world and it isn’t a recent phenomenon either. Barry Ritholtz, in this piece for Bloomberg refers to a research paper by Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University to say that the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.\r\nResearcher Hendrik looked at 62,000 global stocks from 1990 to 2018 and figured out that the best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation. Another data point shown is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.\r\n<em>“The winner-take-all phenomenon is well-documented among sports stars, pop singers, fiction authors, actors and hedge-fund managers -- those at the top reap fabulous rewards while everyone else scrapes to get by. It turns out the same hold true in the stock market: Just 1.3% of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades. Outside the U.S., the gains are even more concentrated, with less than 1% of all equities driving all of the net appreciation in share prices. Those numbers come from a new study on equities, and how their gains are distributed. Ardent stock pickers who read the paper might find themselves turned into indexers as a result of what they see. The lead author of the paper, Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, and the rest of his researchers looked at 62,000 global common stocks from 1990 to 2018, and ranked them on a compounded, total-return basis. That period includes two decade-long market expansions, from 1990 to 2000 and 2009 through 2018, as well as two major market crashes in 2000 and 2008. These periods, encompassing bear and bull cycles, make it less likely that the findings are due to anomalies or one-off events. The data analysis reveals the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.  </em>\r\n<em>Just five companies -- Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.Com Inc., Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Exxon Mobil Corp. -- accounted for 8.3% of global net wealth creation. It is hard to imagine a greater example of the winner-take-all distribution -- these five companies account for just 0.008% of the total sample set of 62,000 publicly traded companies. Expand that to the top 0.5%, or 306 companies, and they account for 73% of global net wealth creation. The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation.</em>\r\n<em>Let’s translate those percentages into dollar amounts: During that 1990-2018 period, those companies accounted for the entire net stock market appreciation of $44.7 trillion, in excess of Treasury returns. Outside the U.S., less than 1% of international equities generated $16 trillion in capital appreciation, also in excess of Treasury returns. Less than half of the stocks in the study -- 23,905 -- had cumulative positive returns. When added to the top gainers, these stocks generated $66.6 trillion of wealth. However, a majority of stocks -- 37,195, or 60.9% -- were net money losers, subtracting a $21.83 trillion from the total. The total gains of winners minus losers netted out to that $44.7 trillion figure. Concentration of stock returns was not the original focus of the research; ironically, the study sought to determine how many stocks managed to outperform bonds over shorter time frames. The discovery of the intense market concentration seems to be a happy accident. The researchers found during shorter periods of time, about 56% of U.S. stocks and 61% of international stocks, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills. In any given month, only 43.7% of U.S. stocks, and 39.3% of non-U.S. stocks, outperformed the accumulated returns of one-month Treasury bills over the full sample period of 29 years. We can shrug at that data point: after all, stocks are long-term investments and we really shouldn\'t care very much about any given month’s returns. It’s the compounding, especially with dividends re-invested, that investors and savers should be thinking about. Still, this was yet another datapoint I found surprising.</em>\r\n<em>Another data point is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.  This isn’t necessarily all bad news for active investors; some of the data could be encouraging or even u seful to stock pickers. One revelation might be that active managers should consider focusing less on being stock pickers, and more on being “stock-unpickers” -- in other words, avoiding the dogs. Identifying the characteristics of those 37,195 long-term money-losers -- what quantitative characteristics do they share that could be screened out -- might be useful. This is a common practice for quants, but the sheer number of money-losing stocks makes one wonder if that approach is being fully exploited. If screens could eliminate some of the long-term losers, it might not only improve returns, but could help to justify fees higher than simple indexing. Others might interpret the study as revealing yet another advantage of indexing: Not only are low costs and beta (market-matching performance) an indexing given, but the research suggests that investors who index broadly may be more likely to hold the rare and outsized winners that drive much of the market gains over time.”</em>', 'Winner-Take-All Phenomenon Rules the Stock Market, Too', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'winner-take-all-phenomenon-rules-the-stock-market-too', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:22:30', '2019-11-06 10:22:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1560', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1561, 1, '2019-08-07 07:32:48', '2019-08-07 07:32:48', 'At the core of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders investment philosophy is identifying monopolistic franchises which dominate their industries for long periods of time. Therefore, the returns from the stocks in those sectors are also likely to be concentrated around these monopolies. Commentators on the Indian stock market have also recently lamented that returns have been restricted to a handful of stocks and how there is no ‘market breadth’. Turns out we are not the only concentrated market in the world and it isn’t a recent phenomenon either. Barry Ritholtz, in this piece for Bloomberg refers to a research paper by Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University to say that the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.\r\nResearcher Hendrik looked at 62,000 global stocks from 1990 to 2018 and figured out that the best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation. Another data point shown is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.\r\n<em>“The winner-take-all phenomenon is well-documented among sports stars, pop singers, fiction authors, actors and hedge-fund managers -- those at the top reap fabulous rewards while everyone else scrapes to get by. It turns out the same hold true in the stock market: Just 1.3% of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades. Outside the U.S., the gains are even more concentrated, with less than 1% of all equities driving all of the net appreciation in share prices. Those numbers come from a new study on equities, and how their gains are distributed. Ardent stock pickers who read the paper might find themselves turned into indexers as a result of what they see. The lead author of the paper, Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, and the rest of his researchers looked at 62,000 global common stocks from 1990 to 2018, and ranked them on a compounded, total-return basis. That period includes two decade-long market expansions, from 1990 to 2000 and 2009 through 2018, as well as two major market crashes in 2000 and 2008. These periods, encompassing bear and bull cycles, make it less likely that the findings are due to anomalies or one-off events. The data analysis reveals the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.  </em>\r\n<em>Just five companies -- Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.Com Inc., Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Exxon Mobil Corp. -- accounted for 8.3% of global net wealth creation. It is hard to imagine a greater example of the winner-take-all distribution -- these five companies account for just 0.008% of the total sample set of 62,000 publicly traded companies. Expand that to the top 0.5%, or 306 companies, and they account for 73% of global net wealth creation. The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation.</em>\r\n<em>Let’s translate those percentages into dollar amounts: During that 1990-2018 period, those companies accounted for the entire net stock market appreciation of $44.7 trillion, in excess of Treasury returns. Outside the U.S., less than 1% of international equities generated $16 trillion in capital appreciation, also in excess of Treasury returns. Less than half of the stocks in the study -- 23,905 -- had cumulative positive returns. When added to the top gainers, these stocks generated $66.6 trillion of wealth. However, a majority of stocks -- 37,195, or 60.9% -- were net money losers, subtracting a $21.83 trillion from the total. The total gains of winners minus losers netted out to that $44.7 trillion figure. Concentration of stock returns was not the original focus of the research; ironically, the study sought to determine how many stocks managed to outperform bonds over shorter time frames. The discovery of the intense market concentration seems to be a happy accident. The researchers found during shorter periods of time, about 56% of U.S. stocks and 61% of international stocks, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills. In any given month, only 43.7% of U.S. stocks, and 39.3% of non-U.S. stocks, outperformed the accumulated returns of one-month Treasury bills over the full sample period of 29 years. We can shrug at that data point: after all, stocks are long-term investments and we really shouldn\'t care very much about any given month’s returns. It’s the compounding, especially with dividends re-invested, that investors and savers should be thinking about. Still, this was yet another datapoint I found surprising.</em>\r\n<em>Another data point is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.  This isn’t necessarily all bad news for active investors; some of the data could be encouraging or even u seful to stock pickers. One revelation might be that active managers should consider focusing less on being stock pickers, and more on being “stock-unpickers” -- in other words, avoiding the dogs. Identifying the characteristics of those 37,195 long-term money-losers -- what quantitative characteristics do they share that could be screened out -- might be useful. This is a common practice for quants, but the sheer number of money-losing stocks makes one wonder if that approach is being fully exploited. If screens could eliminate some of the long-term losers, it might not only improve returns, but could help to justify fees higher than simple indexing. Others might interpret the study as revealing yet another advantage of indexing: Not only are low costs and beta (market-matching performance) an indexing given, but the research suggests that investors who index broadly may be more likely to hold the rare and outsized winners that drive much of the market gains over time.”</em>', 'Winner-Take-All Phenomenon Rules the Stock Market, Too', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1560-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:32:48', '2019-08-07 07:32:48', '', 1560, 'http://marcellus.in/1560-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1562, 1, '2019-08-07 07:33:49', '2019-08-07 07:33:49', 'This should bring cheer to those disappointed with the beef bans in places across India. The plant-based meat technology has received a shot in the arm with the USFDA clearing the use of soy leghemoglobin, a protein-based color additive uses to make the Impossible Burger “bleed” like real meat. This piece by Rowan Jacobsen in Outside, captures the significant strides made by the plant-based meat industry  led by \"start-ups\" like Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger, recent times that one can in the near future look to savour a juicy burger yet stay vegetarian and environment friendly.\r\n<em>“Part of the appeal of the new burgers is their smaller environmental footprint. Beef is the most wasteful food on the planet. Cows are not optimized to make meat; they’re optimized to be cows. It takes 36,000 calories of feed to produce 1,000 calories of beef. In the process, it uses more than 430 gallons of water and 1,500 square feet of land, and it generates nearly ten kilograms of greenhouse-gas emissions. In comparison, an Impossible Burger <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9b9193b2e8&amp;e=5648501957\">uses</a> 87 percent less water, 96 percent less land, and produces 89 percent fewer greenhouse-gas emissions. Beyond Meat’s footprint is similarly svelte.</em>\r\n<em>..By 2018, sales of both the Beyond Burger and the Impossible Burger were surging, and the companies began to ink deals with restaurant chains. Beyond Meat got Carl’s Jr. and A&amp;W (as well as supermarket chains like Food Lion and Safeway), while Impossible got White Castle. They’re coming back at Del Taco, too, which launched a Beyond Meat taco in April. Within two months, it had sold two million, one of the most successful product launches in its history, so it decided to add Beyond Meat burritos as well. And then there’s Burger King. The second-largest fast-food chain in the world rattled big beef’s cage by testing an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=03da23d5af&amp;e=5648501957\">Impossible Whopper in St. Louis</a> in April. Resulting</em> <em>foot traffic was so strong that Burger King decided to serve the Impossible Whopper in all 7,200 restaurants, marking the moment when alt meat stopped being alt. </em>\r\n<em>…As this shift accelerates, the beef industry will lose its last advantage—price. Most offerings made with Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are about a buck a burger more expensive. But it’s inherently cheaper to make a burger directly out of plants than it is to feed those plants to an animal first. Beef is currently cheaper because of scale. Big food companies can negotiate tremendously reduced prices for feed, and gigantic factories and supply chains are much more efficient to run.</em>\r\n<em>But the playing field is leveling fast. Last week, Dunkin’ announced a new Beyond Sausage breakfast sandwich that will be just 14 cents more than the meat version. But more than anything Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods has accomplished, the true death knell for the cattlemen is how the mainstream food industry has embraced</em> <em>alt meat. Whole Foods just announced it will start selling burgers from the UK-based startup the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=47bbe3a049&amp;e=5648501957\">Meatless Farm</a> in all of its stores. Nestlé is launching its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=991729e3f7&amp;e=5648501957\">Awesome Burger</a> this fall. Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat producer, just debuted its own plant-based nuggets, with more products to come.\" </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6dc28517c1&amp;e=5648501957\">Recent projections</a> suggest that 60 percent of the meat eaten in 2040 will be alt, a figure I think may actually be too conservative. An estimated 95 percent of the people buying alt burgers are meat-eaters. This is not about making vegetarians happy. It’s not even about climate change. This is a battle for America’s flame-broiled soul. Meat is about to break free from its animal past. As traditional meat companies embrace alt meat with the fervor of the just converted, making it cheap and ubiquitious, it’s unclear if Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods can survive the feeding frenzy (though Impossible’s patents on its core IP may help)..”</em>', 'This Is the Beginning of the End of the Beef Industry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'this-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-beef-industry', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:18:07', '2019-11-06 10:18:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1562', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1563, 1, '2019-08-07 07:33:49', '2019-08-07 07:33:49', 'This should bring cheer to those disappointed with the beef bans in places across India. The plant-based meat technology has received a shot in the arm with the USFDA clearing the use of soy leghemoglobin, a protein-based color additive uses to make the Impossible Burger “bleed” like real meat. This piece by Rowan Jacobsen in Outside, captures the significant strides made by the plant-based meat industry  led by \"start-ups\" like Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger, recent times that one can in the near future look to savour a juicy burger yet stay vegetarian and environment friendly.\r\n<em>“Part of the appeal of the new burgers is their smaller environmental footprint. Beef is the most wasteful food on the planet. Cows are not optimized to make meat; they’re optimized to be cows. It takes 36,000 calories of feed to produce 1,000 calories of beef. In the process, it uses more than 430 gallons of water and 1,500 square feet of land, and it generates nearly ten kilograms of greenhouse-gas emissions. In comparison, an Impossible Burger <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9b9193b2e8&amp;e=5648501957\">uses</a> 87 percent less water, 96 percent less land, and produces 89 percent fewer greenhouse-gas emissions. Beyond Meat’s footprint is similarly svelte.</em>\r\n<em>..By 2018, sales of both the Beyond Burger and the Impossible Burger were surging, and the companies began to ink deals with restaurant chains. Beyond Meat got Carl’s Jr. and A&amp;W (as well as supermarket chains like Food Lion and Safeway), while Impossible got White Castle. They’re coming back at Del Taco, too, which launched a Beyond Meat taco in April. Within two months, it had sold two million, one of the most successful product launches in its history, so it decided to add Beyond Meat burritos as well. And then there’s Burger King. The second-largest fast-food chain in the world rattled big beef’s cage by testing an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=03da23d5af&amp;e=5648501957\">Impossible Whopper in St. Louis</a> in April. Resulting</em> <em>foot traffic was so strong that Burger King decided to serve the Impossible Whopper in all 7,200 restaurants, marking the moment when alt meat stopped being alt. </em>\r\n<em>…As this shift accelerates, the beef industry will lose its last advantage—price. Most offerings made with Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are about a buck a burger more expensive. But it’s inherently cheaper to make a burger directly out of plants than it is to feed those plants to an animal first. Beef is currently cheaper because of scale. Big food companies can negotiate tremendously reduced prices for feed, and gigantic factories and supply chains are much more efficient to run.</em>\r\n<em>But the playing field is leveling fast. Last week, Dunkin’ announced a new Beyond Sausage breakfast sandwich that will be just 14 cents more than the meat version. But more than anything Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods has accomplished, the true death knell for the cattlemen is how the mainstream food industry has embraced</em> <em>alt meat. Whole Foods just announced it will start selling burgers from the UK-based startup the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=47bbe3a049&amp;e=5648501957\">Meatless Farm</a> in all of its stores. Nestlé is launching its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=991729e3f7&amp;e=5648501957\">Awesome Burger</a> this fall. Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat producer, just debuted its own plant-based nuggets, with more products to come.\" </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6dc28517c1&amp;e=5648501957\">Recent projections</a> suggest that 60 percent of the meat eaten in 2040 will be alt, a figure I think may actually be too conservative. An estimated 95 percent of the people buying alt burgers are meat-eaters. This is not about making vegetarians happy. It’s not even about climate change. This is a battle for America’s flame-broiled soul. Meat is about to break free from its animal past. As traditional meat companies embrace alt meat with the fervor of the just converted, making it cheap and ubiquitious, it’s unclear if Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods can survive the feeding frenzy (though Impossible’s patents on its core IP may help)..”</em>', 'This Is the Beginning of the End of the Beef Industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1562-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:33:49', '2019-08-07 07:33:49', '', 1562, 'http://marcellus.in/1562-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1564, 1, '2019-08-07 07:47:45', '2019-08-07 07:47:45', 'William Shakespeare famously wrote in <em>Romeo and Juliet</em> “What\'s in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Turns out, there is actually a lot that can be gathered from the name, at least going by Rishabh Srivastava’s big data analytics story on Scroll. Rishabh is the founder of Loki.ai, as the name suggests an AI focused company. Loki.ai has analysed more than 100 million names from publicly available sources to develop algorithms that predict audience demographics including age, affluence, ethnicity, etc and that is making its way into how marketeers and lenders scan the vast population to target the right audience for their products and services.\r\n<em>“Is someone named Rhea Ahluwalia more likely to be affluent than someone named Panna Lal? If your instinctive answer was “Yes”, you would – ceteris paribus – be right. Indian names, both first and last, contain enormous signalling value. They can be used by marketers, analysts and entrepreneurs to assess the affluence, age, ethnicity and gender distributions of their audience.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Age prediction: </strong></em><em>Intuitively, most Indians recognise that names such as Shubham and Rishabh are younger and more modern names, while names like Om and Shashi are older names. We quantified this by creating an age histogram for individual names. For instance, a cursory look at the graph below shows that the name Abhishek skews young. We used the skew of these histograms to create an age-index for each first name in India. The lower the age-index for a name, the younger a name is likely to be. The graph below shows the age-index for selected names….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Affluence estimation: </strong></em><em>We also overlaid electoral roll data with data scraped from property sites to discover correlations between where different communities lived and where property and rental prices were the highest. For instance, property prices in Bankner in Delhi are far lower than property prices in areas like Rajouri Gardens and Rohini. We could draw correlations between these prices and the distributions of different communities in these areas. The image below, for instance, lists the nine most common surnames in selected communities in Delhi….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Ethnicity prediction: </strong></em><em>Rishabh Srivastava, my name, is highly likely to be that of a North Indian, while a name like Ronojoy Sen is highly likely to be that of someone who is ethnically Bengali….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Applications: </strong></em><em>We built these tools mostly as a fun learning project, but have since learnt that they have a number of commercially useful applications. Using names can help brands measure the demographics and affluence of their audience, as well as that of the publishers they advertise with. Similarly, publishers can use names to find out what kind of stories attract what kind of audiences….Calculating the affluence index of users acquired from campaigns in real time can help brand stop a campaign that acquires the wrong kinds of users before too many marketing dollars have been spent. Name analytics can also be used by e-commerce and content websites to target specific demographics with specific campaigns. For example, Marathi users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Ganesh Chaturthi. Similarly, Bengali users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Durga Puja.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Can an algorithm determine just how rich an Indian is merely from their name?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'can-an-algorithm-determine-just-how-rich-an-indian-is-merely-from-their-name', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:16:56', '2019-11-06 10:16:56', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1564', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1565, 1, '2019-08-07 07:47:45', '2019-08-07 07:47:45', 'William Shakespeare famously wrote in <em>Romeo and Juliet</em> “What\'s in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Turns out, there is actually a lot that can be gathered from the name, at least going by Rishabh Srivastava’s big data analytics story on Scroll. Rishabh is the founder of Loki.ai, as the name suggests an AI focused company. Loki.ai has analysed more than 100 million names from publicly available sources to develop algorithms that predict audience demographics including age, affluence, ethnicity, etc and that is making its way into how marketeers and lenders scan the vast population to target the right audience for their products and services.\r\n<em>“Is someone named Rhea Ahluwalia more likely to be affluent than someone named Panna Lal? If your instinctive answer was “Yes”, you would – ceteris paribus – be right. Indian names, both first and last, contain enormous signalling value. They can be used by marketers, analysts and entrepreneurs to assess the affluence, age, ethnicity and gender distributions of their audience.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Age prediction: </strong></em><em>Intuitively, most Indians recognise that names such as Shubham and Rishabh are younger and more modern names, while names like Om and Shashi are older names. We quantified this by creating an age histogram for individual names. For instance, a cursory look at the graph below shows that the name Abhishek skews young. We used the skew of these histograms to create an age-index for each first name in India. The lower the age-index for a name, the younger a name is likely to be. The graph below shows the age-index for selected names….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Affluence estimation: </strong></em><em>We also overlaid electoral roll data with data scraped from property sites to discover correlations between where different communities lived and where property and rental prices were the highest. For instance, property prices in Bankner in Delhi are far lower than property prices in areas like Rajouri Gardens and Rohini. We could draw correlations between these prices and the distributions of different communities in these areas. The image below, for instance, lists the nine most common surnames in selected communities in Delhi….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Ethnicity prediction: </strong></em><em>Rishabh Srivastava, my name, is highly likely to be that of a North Indian, while a name like Ronojoy Sen is highly likely to be that of someone who is ethnically Bengali….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Applications: </strong></em><em>We built these tools mostly as a fun learning project, but have since learnt that they have a number of commercially useful applications. Using names can help brands measure the demographics and affluence of their audience, as well as that of the publishers they advertise with. Similarly, publishers can use names to find out what kind of stories attract what kind of audiences….Calculating the affluence index of users acquired from campaigns in real time can help brand stop a campaign that acquires the wrong kinds of users before too many marketing dollars have been spent. Name analytics can also be used by e-commerce and content websites to target specific demographics with specific campaigns. For example, Marathi users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Ganesh Chaturthi. Similarly, Bengali users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Durga Puja.</em>', 'Can an algorithm determine just how rich an Indian is merely from their name?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1564-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:47:45', '2019-08-07 07:47:45', '', 1564, 'http://marcellus.in/1564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1566, 1, '2019-08-07 07:50:51', '2019-08-07 07:50:51', 'William Shakespeare famously wrote in <em>Romeo and Juliet</em> “What\'s in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Turns out, there is actually a lot that can be gathered from the name, at least going by Rishabh Srivastava’s big data analytics story on Scroll. Rishabh is the founder of Loki.ai, as the name suggests an AI focused company. Loki.ai has analysed more than 100 million names from publicly available sources to develop algorithms that predict audience demographics including age, affluence, ethnicity, etc and that is making its way into how marketeers and lenders scan the vast population to target the right audience for their products and services.\n<em>“Is someone named Rhea Ahluwalia more likely to be affluent than someone named Panna Lal? If your instinctive answer was “Yes”, you would – ceteris paribus – be right. Indian names, both first and last, contain enormous signalling value. They can be used by marketers, analysts and entrepreneurs to assess the affluence, age, ethnicity and gender distributions of their audience.</em>\n<em><strong>Age prediction: </strong></em><em>Intuitively, most Indians recognise that names such as Shubham and Rishabh are younger and more modern names, while names like Om and Shashi are older names. We quantified this by creating an age histogram for individual names. For instance, a cursory look at the graph below shows that the name Abhishek skews young. We used the skew of these histograms to create an age-index for each first name in India. The lower the age-index for a name, the younger a name is likely to be. The graph below shows the age-index for selected names….</em>\n<em><strong>Affluence estimation: </strong></em><em>We also overlaid electoral roll data with data scraped from property sites to discover correlations between where different communities lived and where property and rental prices were the highest. For instance, property prices in Bankner in Delhi are far lower than property prices in areas like Rajouri Gardens and Rohini. We could draw correlations between these prices and the distributions of different communities in these areas. The image below, for instance, lists the nine most common surnames in selected communities in Delhi….</em>\n<em><strong>Ethnicity prediction: </strong></em><em>Rishabh Srivastava, my name, is highly likely to be that of a North Indian, while a name like Ronojoy Sen is highly likely to be that of someone who is ethnically Bengali….</em>\n<em><strong>Applications: </strong></em><em>We built these tools mostly as a fun learning project, but have since learnt that they have a number of commercially useful applications. Using names can help brands measure the demographics and affluence of their audience, as well as that of the publishers they advertise with. Similarly, publishers can use names to find out what kind of stories attract what kind of audiences….Calculating the affluence index of users acquired from campaigns in real time can help brand stop a campaign that acquires the wrong kinds of users before too many marketing dollars have been spent. Name analytics can also be used by e-commerce and content websites to target specific demographics with specific campaigns. For example, Marathi users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Ganesh Chaturthi. Similarly, Bengali users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Durga Puja.</em>\n\n&nbsp;\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Can an algorithm determine just how rich an Indian is merely from their name?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1564-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 07:50:51', '2019-08-07 07:50:51', '', 1564, 'http://marcellus.in/1564-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1567, 1, '2019-08-07 14:19:12', '2019-08-07 14:19:12', 'William Shakespeare famously wrote in <em>Romeo and Juliet</em> “What\'s in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Turns out, there is actually a lot that can be gathered from the name, at least going by Rishabh Srivastava’s big data analytics story on Scroll. Rishabh is the founder of Loki.ai, as the name suggests an AI focused company. Loki.ai has analysed more than 100 million names from publicly available sources to develop algorithms that predict audience demographics including age, affluence, ethnicity, etc and that is making its way into how marketeers and lenders scan the vast population to target the right audience for their products and services.\r\n<em>“Is someone named Rhea Ahluwalia more likely to be affluent than someone named Panna Lal? If your instinctive answer was “Yes”, you would – ceteris paribus – be right. Indian names, both first and last, contain enormous signalling value. They can be used by marketers, analysts and entrepreneurs to assess the affluence, age, ethnicity and gender distributions of their audience.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Age prediction: </strong></em><em>Intuitively, most Indians recognise that names such as Shubham and Rishabh are younger and more modern names, while names like Om and Shashi are older names. We quantified this by creating an age histogram for individual names. For instance, a cursory look at the graph below shows that the name Abhishek skews young. We used the skew of these histograms to create an age-index for each first name in India. The lower the age-index for a name, the younger a name is likely to be. The graph below shows the age-index for selected names….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Affluence estimation: </strong></em><em>We also overlaid electoral roll data with data scraped from property sites to discover correlations between where different communities lived and where property and rental prices were the highest. For instance, property prices in Bankner in Delhi are far lower than property prices in areas like Rajouri Gardens and Rohini. We could draw correlations between these prices and the distributions of different communities in these areas. The image below, for instance, lists the nine most common surnames in selected communities in Delhi….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Ethnicity prediction: </strong></em><em>Rishabh Srivastava, my name, is highly likely to be that of a North Indian, while a name like Ronojoy Sen is highly likely to be that of someone who is ethnically Bengali….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Applications: </strong></em><em>We built these tools mostly as a fun learning project, but have since learnt that they have a number of commercially useful applications. Using names can help brands measure the demographics and affluence of their audience, as well as that of the publishers they advertise with. Similarly, publishers can use names to find out what kind of stories attract what kind of audiences….Calculating the affluence index of users acquired from campaigns in real time can help brand stop a campaign that acquires the wrong kinds of users before too many marketing dollars have been spent. Name analytics can also be used by e-commerce and content websites to target specific demographics with specific campaigns. For example, Marathi users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Ganesh Chaturthi. Similarly, Bengali users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Durga Puja.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Can an algorithm determine just how rich an Indian is merely from their name?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1564-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-07 14:19:12', '2019-08-07 14:19:12', '', 1564, 'http://marcellus.in/1564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1666, 1, '2019-09-13 20:56:42', '2019-09-13 20:56:42', '<em>Published on: 13 September, 2019</em>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<strong>Amidst the gloom &amp; doom of the economic downturn, we continue to see weekly inflows from small town India into Marcellus’ funds. More generally, equity inflows into mutual funds are holding up as are insurance premiums written by even third rung insurers. Our trips to small towns suggest that such flows point to a broader shift taking place in the Indian economy.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“We find several attributes of Indian households that are exceptional in the international context. Importantly, these distinctive features of Indian household balance sheets cannot be explained by differences in the demographic characteristics, wealth, or income of Indian households relative to their counterparts in other countries…A large fraction of the wealth of Indian households is in the form of physical assets (in particular, gold and real estate). This is unusual in the international context, and especially unusual for younger households, and for households in the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, i.e., those with the lowest amounts of gross assets…Over the coming decade and a half, the elderly cohort is expected to grow by 75percent. Only a small fraction of this cohort has saved in private pension plans. Moreover, a large segment of the population of households in all age cohorts has not actively taken steps to insure adequate financial coverage during retirement. The need to finance adequate consumption during retirement is therefore a looming issue, and when combined with the low penetration of insurance, households appear particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks later in life.” </em>–<strong> Report of the Household Finance Committee, RBI, July 2017 </strong>(Source: <a href=\"https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>The visitor from Haryana…</strong>\r\nA month ago an elderly doctor from a small town in Haryana came to our office. A paediatrician in his early-60s, the doctor explained that the real estate crash of the past five years had dented the value of his landholdings. Hence around three years ago he had invested in a small-midcap PMS offered by a prominent asset management house in Mumbai. The small-midcap correction of the past couple of years dented that portfolio as well. Then the doctor had stumbled upon the two books we have written based on Rob Kirby’s Coffee Can Investing principle. He had come to our office in Mumbai to know whether we could help him compound his life’s savings.\r\n\r\n<strong>…represents a generational shift in SME savings</strong>\r\nThe doctor from Haryana is representative of a broader trend. As we travel around India, we see that in small town India owners of SME businesses have understood the devastating implications of not being able to retire with a large enough corpus. In particular, they have figured out that their property &amp; gold will not be enough to fund them through retirement. The RBI’s remarkably well researched August 2017 Household Financial Committee report says that 95% of Indian households’ stock of wealth is in physical assets. As most people now realise that physical assets struggle to keep up even with the rate of inflation, SME owners are first turning their black money savings into white money by paying Income Tax (as attested by the growing number of Income Tax payers even in the sluggish economic climate). Then they are searching for providers of financial savings products who can give them steady compounding. As a result, in this economic downturn, equity inflows into mutual funds are holding up as are insurance premiums written by even third rung insurers (you can check out the data on <a href=\"https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund</a>\r\n\r\nThe practical implication of this trend is that the smaller the town, the quicker the SME owner warms to Marcellus’ offering. So, using Tamilnadu as an example, a pitch which takes an hour in Chennai, takes 45 minutes in Coimbatore (population: 1.6 million), 40 minutes in Tirrupur (population: 0.8 million) and around 30 minutes in Erode (population: 0.5 million). There are several reasons I believe for this pattern (which we have seen in Maharashtra as well):\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The financialisation of savings has happened to a certain extent in big cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. In smaller cities, most SME owners have only a smattering of financial assets (usually fixed deposits and Life Insurance Company policies).</li>\r\n 	<li>The market for residential property and land still has some liquidity in the big cities – at least a few flats are being bought and sold in cities like Mumbai and Chennai. In smaller cities, the market for real estate is completely frozen solid. There have been no deals all year long in several of the smaller cities we have visited.</li>\r\n 	<li>The audience which meets us in the bigger cities tends to have a greater proportion of people from white collar professions – people who have a steady income and hence a greater sense of security. In the smaller cities, the audience is overwhelmingly <a href=\"/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/\">SME owners</a> who have to live by their wits eg. textile traders, spice traders, car dealers, local real estate developers. These people have to live with volatility in their day job and hence crave the security that comes from investing in a relatively predictable financial asset.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIf India’s per capita income – which is around US$2000 today – grows at 5% per annum (which is what it has done in the last 10 years) over the next 10 years, the country’s per capita income will be around US$3,300. As­suming a population of 1.5 billion, this gives India a US$5 trillion GDP ten years hence. Assuming further that our household savings rate will stay at broadly 20% a decade out gives us annual household savings of US$1 trillion. At present, roughly half of household savings in India are in financial assets (the rest is in physical). If this ratio persists, then a decade out, annual household savings should be around US$500 billion in India.\r\n\r\nHowever, such a figure ignores the balance sheet shift that we highlighted in the opening paras of this note. As SME owners realise that they need to save more through financial rather than physical savings, they will start selling their real estate to invest in financial assets. The question is at what rate will this shift take place? As per RBI data, presently 95% of Indian wealth is in physical assets. If this number drops by 1% point per annum (which is what our reading of the Credit Suisse World Wealth Yearbook suggests) then that implies that around $100 billion per annum could get added to the annual flow into financial savings.\r\n\r\nWith potentially $500 billion of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade (from US$200 billion today to US$600 billion). That in turn makes it imperative that the country figures out how not just how to give Indian savers a fair deal but also how to harness these savings ideally at a national level. That in turn takes us into the whole debate on how the ongoing “formalisation” of the Indian economy can be managed in a less disruptive manner.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit\r\n<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">/resources/</a>\r\n<em><a href=\"/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Marcellus: Rising Equity Inflows from Small Town India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-rising-equity-inflows-from-small-town-india', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:10:07', '2019-11-01 06:10:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1666', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1667, 1, '2019-09-16 11:10:42', '2019-09-16 11:10:42', '<div class=\"container text-center mt-5 mb-5\">\r\nWe have received your message and would like to thank you for writing to us.\r\nIf your inquiry is urgent, please use the telephone number listed below to talk to one of our staff members.\r\nOtherwise, we will reply by email as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Thank you', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'thank-you', '', '', '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?page_id=1667', 0, 'page', '', 0),
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(1711, 1, '2019-09-22 04:58:11', '2019-09-22 04:58:11', 'At Marcellus, we are big fans of giant data-hungry quant screens which can rigorously sift through years of data on thousands of companies and give us a small set of 25-30 companies on which can do detailed qualitative research. Given such proclivities, we found this piece in Barron’s to be a really interesting read. The article profiles a fund manager called Bob Bergson who runs a US$446mn fund called ‘Northern Small Cap Core’. Barron’s says, <em>“While some fund managers devote the majority of their time to uncovering the very best companies, Bob Bergson has spent nearly a decade making sure that his $446 million Northern Small Cap Core fund avoids the very worst.</em>\r\n<em>It helps that underperforming companies exhibit common traits: declining margins, too much debt, and inadequate cash flow, to name a few. Meanwhile, “successful companies tend to have very individual paths,” says Bergson, 54.”</em>\r\nInterestingly, rather than screening to get the best companies, Bergson screens to avoid the worst: <em>“Bergson uses a factor-based approach to give investors exposure to the broader small-cap universe—minus the worst of the worst. The goal is to capture the outsize return characteristics of small companies, while keeping stock-specific risks and trading costs in check. Over the past decade, the fund (ticker: NSGRX) has returned an average of more than 12% a year, putting it ahead of 87% of its small-blend peers and the Russell 2000 index.”</em>\r\nUnderlying this investment philosophy are some interesting insights from Bergson: <em>““I wanted to understand where you get rewarded for the risk you take and how to avoid the sorts of risks you don’t think you’re getting rewarded for,” says Bergson…</em> <em>“Some of the biggest outsize returns in the space come from the smallest segments of the small-cap universe,” he says, noting that stocks added to the Russell 2000 returned, on average, more than double the index in the year prior. Admittedly, these results are positively skewed—the stocks make it into the index because they outperformed—“but if you don’t have exposure to them, you miss out on a big portion of that upside,” he says. As an added benefit, microcap stocks have a slightly lower correlation to the broader market, he says. In a big selloff, he says, “What do investors sell first? It’s not the microcaps. It’s larger, more liquid securities.”</em>\r\nAlongside this unique investing philosophy, Bergson maintains low levels of churn in his portfolio: <em>“Bergson and his team, which includes four co-managers, don’t screen microcaps for quality. Instead, they aim to own a large sample that reflects sector weightings of the Russell 2000, and keep trading to a minimum. “You let the market, in a sense, reward that exposure,” says Bergson, whose portfolio turnover was recently just 21%....</em> <em>It’s far easier to identify companies that are least likely to succeed, he says. That emphasis on what not to buy helps minimize turnover and saves on trading costs. Eight of the fund’s recent top 10 holdings have been in the portfolio since Bergson took over in 2010…”</em>', 'How a Small-Cap Fund Weeds Out the Worst Stocks', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-a-small-cap-fund-weeds-out-the-worst-stocks', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:30:14', '2019-11-04 07:30:14', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1711', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1964, 1, '2019-10-18 08:46:51', '2019-10-18 08:46:51', '<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1961 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"358\" />\n\n<strong>Ever since India started liberalising its economy in the early 1980s, the two-year period following General Elections has always generated positive returns with one exception (1999). In fact, the two years following General Elections have accounted for 80% of the returns generated by the Indian stockmarket. Furthermore, Consistent Compounder stocks have more than adequately participated in these post-Election rallies.</strong>\n\n<em>“In Italy, for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance.</em>\n<em>In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace – and what did they produce? The cuckoo clock.” - </em><strong>Orson Welles as Harry Lime in ‘The Third Man’ (1949)</strong><b>\n\n<strong>The link between General Elections and Sensex returns</strong></b>\nAs the quote above suggests, the impact of good/bad political governance on the stockmarket is less obvious than most imagine it to be. Whatever you or I might think of the quality of successive Indian administrations, of the nine elections that India has seen since 1984 (that being the period when India began liberalising its economy), eight have produced positive stockmarket returns in the two year period following elections (1999 being the only aberration and one that can be blamed on the dotcom bust rather than on domestic factors). Even more remarkably, the average one year and two year post-election returns for the Sensex are 41% and 27% respectively (the two year return is a CAGR figure).\n\nSince the Sensex’s 35-year CAGR (1984-2019) has been 15% and since the two-year post-election CAGR is 27%, simple arithmetic suggests that <em>the two years following General Elections have driven 80% of the Sensex’s returns in the last 35 years</em><strong><i>.</i></strong> If you believe in the takeaways from historical data, the message is that if you don’t invest in the Indian stockmarket in the two year period following General Elections, you are missing out…bigtime. So why does this link exist and will history repeat itself in the grim economic aftermath of the 2019 General Elections?\n\n<strong>Why does this link exist?</strong>\nIn economic theory, the correlation between election cycles and the economic cycle has been discussed for nearly a century now. As Lisa Chauvet of DIAL (a Paris-based think tank) and Paul Collier of Oxford University pointed out in 2008: <em>“Economic policy is critical for prosperity and so how it is shaped is of enormous importance for developing societies. It is now widely accepted that the struggle for good economic policies and governance is predominantly an internal process within these societies rather than something that can be imposed from outside…Potentially, elections are the key institutional technology of democracy than enables citizens to hold governments to account. While the potential may seem self-evident, quantitative political science research has become rather sceptical of the efficacy of democracy in improving economic performance…We have investigated whether elections have forced governments into policy improvement…</em><strong><i>Elections in developing countries have cyclical effects on policy.</i></strong><em>” </em>[Emphasis in bold is ours]\n\nIndia’s history, since the early 1980s, points to a close link between political and economic cycles. Specifically, the combination of a decisive electoral mandate and decisive economic reform has typically acted as a major spur for the Sensex even without economic growth being an immediate beneficiary of economic reform. For example, after the 1991 General Election, the economic reforms initiated by the then Congress government presaged a two year drop in GDP growth even as the stockmarket roared away.\n\nA more recent example is the corporate tax reforms enacted last month wherein not only did the Finance Minister cut the corporate tax rate by nearly 10% points, she also said that manufacturers who set up new plants post 1st October 2019 can avail of a 15% corporate tax rate on the profits generated from the new plants. As explained in our recent newsletter (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e08065e2b1&amp;e=30e8f97910\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De08065e2b1%26e%3D30e8f97910&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571464138839000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgm_N1qckNtS0qLySIlZ0L8EHYbw\">http://marcellus.in/<wbr />newsletter/consistent-<wbr />compounders-benefit-<wbr />disproportionately-from-tax-<wbr />rate-cuts/</a>):\n<em>“…the biggest beneficiaries of the cut in corporate tax rates are companies with a combination of high ROCE + high reinvestment rate + high tax rate. Firms which will NOT benefit much from the tax rate cut are those which either do not have avenues for capital reinvestment, or which have low pricing power (and hence will have to sacrifice the gains from the tax cut), or which have low ROCE, or those that are not cash generative. In short, the vast majority of the Indian stockmarket will not benefit from the recent cut in corporate tax rates! Those gains shall, rightfully, go to their consumers...</em>\n\n<em><b>Consistent Compounders benefit disproportionately from the cut in corporate tax rates</b></em>\n<em>As highlighted in exhibit 5 below, the 13 stocks in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) will not only benefit from high existing tax rates (an effect which has been factored into their share price in September already), but also from accelerated earnings growth given their high ROCEs and capital reinvestment rates (a snowball effect which has not yet been factored into their share price).”</em>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1962 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"730\" height=\"360\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1963 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"567\" height=\"342\" />\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, moving beyond the specifics of the recent corporate tax rate cut, we find that more generally our Consistent Compounder stocks participate more than adequately in the post-Election rallies. As shown in the chart above, in the two year period following General Elections:\n(a) the lowest return HDFC Bank has given is 20% CAGR;\n(b) the lowest return Asian Paints has given is -17% CAGR [post the 1996 elections];\n(c) HDFC Bank has never given negative returns; and\n(d) Asian Paints has once given negative returns.\n\nTo conclude, the more general points we are driving at are that:</p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li>Economic reforms often seem to benefit specific types of companies rather than benefiting the economy as a whole or benefiting the entire corporate community.</li>\n 	<li>We have seen repeatedly in India that economic reforms often come in the wake of decisive General Election results.</li>\n 	<li>In the wake of reforms, even as GDP growth slows, the stockmarket rallies as it anticipates higher future profits for a subset of companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=850d1a38eb&amp;e=30e8f97910\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D850d1a38eb%26e%3D30e8f97910&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571464138840000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyOxNn7iISK0IH7BY_3nYptuHNqw\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em></p>', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1960-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-18 08:46:51', '2019-10-18 08:46:51', '', 1960, 'http://marcellus.in/1960-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1575, 1, '2019-08-09 06:35:50', '2019-08-09 06:35:50', '', 'cpatch', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'cpatch-2', '', '', '2019-08-09 06:35:50', '2019-08-09 06:35:50', '', 152, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/cpatch-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1576, 1, '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'adm-mcraven-urges-graduates-to-find-courage-to-change-the-world-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1576', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1594, 1, '2019-08-19 14:36:01', '2019-08-19 14:36:01', '<em>Published on:19 August, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Whilst David Epstein’s latest book, ‘Range’, has ignited the debate on Generalists vs Specialists, we believe that the ideal recipe is a combination i.e. in any competitive profession the people who will rise to the top are those who have: (1) the skills/experience to deal with a wide variety of challenges; AND (2) deep expertise in the core competence offered by the profession to its customers.</strong><strong>\r\n</strong>\r\n<em>“Use only that which works, and take it from any place you can find it.” </em>–<strong> Bruce Lee as quoted in ‘Bruce Lee: Fighting Spirit’ (1994) by Bruce Thomas</strong>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1595\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Bruce-Lee.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"183\" height=\"276\" /></p>\r\n<strong>David Epstein’s fine book triggers a debate</strong>\r\nMalcolm Gladwell’s bestseller ‘The Outliers’ (2008) popularised the concept that with 10,000 hours of ‘deliberate’ practice under the guidance of an expert/coach anyone could become a world beater at anything. That in turn led to ambitious parents enrolling their kids into coaching classes as early as they could to ensure that their children started clocking those 10,000 hours ASAP.\r\n\r\nNow, however, in an equally well written book <em>‘Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World’</em> (2019), David Epstein says that the ‘10,000 hours of practice’ theory is not only misguided, it could also be damaging. Epstein argues that specialists flourish in “kind” learning environments (such as golf, classical music, technology innovation, chess), where patterns recur and feedback is quick and accurate. By contrast, generalists flourish in “wicked” learning environments (business, politics, fund management, medicine, day-to-day life), where patterns are harder to discern and feedback is delayed and/or inaccurate. Why so?\r\n\r\nEpstein cites two reasons why generalists outperform specialists in ‘wicked’ learning environments. Firstly, generalists tend to have a more rounded set of skills and hence are able to adapt to difficult/fluid learning environments better than specialists (who tend to be more uni-dimensional in their talents &amp; training). Secondly, generalists have better “match” quality i.e. because they have done a broader range of things in life, the odds are relatively high generalists have settled upon/specialised in an activity which fits (or matches) their talents better. As it happens, another recently published book, ‘Bruce Lee: A Life’ (2018), by Matthew Polly provides an almost ideal exemplification of Epstein’s theory in a setting many of us can identify with, namely, the rise of Asia amidst the ascendancy of the US after World War II.\r\n\r\n<strong>Bruce Lee: the ultimate “Generalist”</strong>\r\nPolly begins the book by giving us the outline of Bruce Lee’s life. He was born San Francisco in 1940 to Chinese parents who were in the US on a working visa. He then grew up in Hong Kong and became a child movie star before he was banished by his father to the US when he was 18. He finished his schooling in Seattle and set up his first martial arts (kung-fu) school there even before we he went to the University of Washington. Another kung-fu school in Oakland followed three years later before Hollywood discovered Bruce Lee at the Long Beach Karate Championships in 1964.\r\n\r\nSmall roles in US TV serials followed but Hollywood couldn’t get over its mental block about an Asian man helming a movie. Instead, in 1971 Bruce Lee’s big break came from Hong Kong – his lead role in “The Big Boss” made him a superstar in Asia. Over the next two years, four more hit movies (the final one being “Enter the Dragon”, widely considered to be the finest martial arts movie of all time) established Bruce Lee as a global superstar before his tragic death in Hong Kong in 1973 in mysterious circumstances. Whilst some say that Bruce Lee died due to an allergic reaction to a prescription painkiller, Polly says that Bruce’s death was caused due to his body overheating as he had had the sweat glands in his armpits removed so as to help him film for longer without having to change shirts. Without sweat glands, Polly claims, Bruce’s body could not cool down swiftly enough in the peak of the Hong Kong summer.\r\n\r\nMore than his death in mysterious circumstances, what makes Bruce Lee interesting is his fusion of many different styles of fighting not just to create a unique style of combat (which would go on to be called Mixed Martial Arts) but also to create a new genre of cinema – the martial arts movie.\r\n\r\nAs a schoolboy, Bruce Lee began by learning <em>wing chun</em>, an obscure style of kung-fu, in Hong Kong from his first and only formal guru, Ip Man. He then studied other styles of kung-fu whilst learning judo from his pupil in Seattle, Jesse Glover, and taekwondo from his friend in Oakland, Jhoon Rhee, also known as the “father of taekwondo in America”. In fact, Bruce Lee learnt martial arts from so many people that when he became a star, several people - from Chuck Norris and Jhoon Rhee – claim to have taught him his famous side-kick.\r\n\r\nWhilst still in his early teens, Bruce was taught the basics of Western-style boxing by Father Gordon, a schoolteacher in Hong Kong. After he moved to America, Bruce studied boxing films closely, especially those of Muhammad Ali (formerly Cassius Marcellus Clay, the man whose life inspired the name of our firm), to understand how the entire body can be used to pack an enormously powerful punch. Bruce also took from boxing its training techniques – skipping, weight training, punching heavy bags five hundred times in a day and a five-mile run at the crack of dawn to build stamina.\r\n\r\nIn his early teens, Bruce also learned the basics of fencing from his brother. He would go on read and build a library of many dozens of books on fencing. Not only did he become an expert fencer, he combined kung-fu and fencing to create the pose which he holds in his iconic photographs wherein he “leads” with his right hand and “finishes” or signs-off with his feet. Bruce called his style of kung-fu “fencing without a sword” see <a href=\"https://academyoffencingmasters.com/blog/bruce-lee-the-worlds-most-famous-fencer/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://academyoffencingmasters.com/blog/bruce-lee-the-worlds-most-famous-fencer/</a> for more details).\r\n\r\nIn his twenties, after reading American body building magazines, Bruce Lee adopted the dietary practices recommended by them i.e. a protein rich diet accompanied by weight training with lots of repetitions to improve muscle definition. Addicted to non-stop training, whilst watching TV or whilst waiting for his next shot on the sets of a movie, Bruce would do hundreds of repetitions.\r\n\r\nBattling Hollywood’s relentless racism, from acting coaches Bruce Lee learnt how to slow down his English so that it was easier for Western audiences to follow him and how to slow down his fighting so that the camera could actually see him. By slowing down his fight scenes – most of which he choreographed himself – Bruce Lee transformed the Asian martial arts movie from a sideshow to mainstream entertainment in the US market. (Sadly, 45 years on some people in Hollywood are still can’t stop tripping over the issue of race:<a href=\"https://ew.com/movies/2019/08/17/kareem-abdul-jabbar-quentin-tarantino-bruce-lee-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://ew.com/movies/2019/08/17/kareem-abdul-jabbar-quentin-tarantino-bruce-lee-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood/</a>\r\n\r\nAlongside all this training &amp; movie work, Bruce Lee was reading and writing at a frenetic pace. He extensively read Western, Taoist and Confucian philosophy and was particularly influenced by Jiddu Krishnamurthy’s religion-less philosophy. Martial arts coach to the biggest Hollywood stars of his time, Bruce Lee went on to write two martial art guides to his style of kung-fu, <em>“Chinese Gung-Fu: The Philosophical Art of Self Defense”</em> and <em>“The Tao of Jeet Kune Do”.</em> The latter book, published after his death, has become the largest selling martial arts book of all time (see <a href=\"https://blackbeltmag.com/store/books/tao-of-jeet-kune-do-expanded-edition\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://blackbeltmag.com/store/books/tao-of-jeet-kune-do-expanded-edition</a>\r\n\r\nIn the 1971 American TV series, ‘Longstreet’, Bruce Lee narrated the lines which have almost became his epitaph: <em>“Don\'t get set into one form, adapt it and build your own, and let it grow, be like water. Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.” </em>(Source: Bruce Lee: A Warrior\'s Journey (2000))\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nWhilst ‘Range’ makes a compelling case that all of us should strive for broadness throughout our careers, long before we had heard of David Epstein, we at Marcellus were not only fans of reading material from a wide range of disciplines (as exemplified by the “3 Longs &amp; 3 Shorts” pieces which we send you every Sunday morning), we had also created a recruitment process which filtered in people from eclectic backgrounds (Engineering, Accounting, Statistics, Economics, Law, etc).\r\n\r\nMore generally, we fail to see the conflict between Epstein’s ‘Range’ and Gladwell’s 10,000 hours. In fact, the two books appear to be complementary for it seems self-evident to us that in any competitive profession the people who will rise to the top are those who have: (1) the skills/experience to deal with a wide variety of challenges; <strong>AND</strong> (2) deep expertise in the core competence offered by the profession to its customers.\r\n\r\nSo, regardless of whether you are a cricketer, a politician, a fund manager, a dancer or a film star, it is hard to believe that in the rapidly evolving flux of a complex and competitive society: (a) a uni-dimensional expert; OR (b) an incompetent expert will reach the summit.\r\n\r\nThe mental-model for achieving success in complex “wicked” societies such as ours is therefore that of a “T” i.e. broad based knowledge along deep-focused expertise. In case you want a simple way to remember the same, you could consider making this Bruce Lee poster your screensaver:\r\n<a href=\"https://www.wallpaperup.com/170153/THE_WAY_OF_THE_DRAGON_martial_arts_bruce_lee_f.html\r\n\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.wallpaperup.com/170153/THE_WAY_OF_THE_DRAGON_martial_arts_bruce_lee_f.html</a>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">\"http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'Bruce Lee And The Rise Of The \"Generalist\"', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bruce-lee-and-the-rise-of-the-generalist', '', '', '2019-10-22 09:42:24', '2019-10-22 09:42:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1594', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(1577, 1, '2019-08-13 15:35:20', '2019-08-13 15:35:20', '<em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:35:20', '2019-08-13 15:35:20', '', 1576, 'http://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1578, 1, '2019-08-13 15:35:47', '2019-08-13 15:35:47', 'Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:35:47', '2019-08-13 15:35:47', '', 1576, 'http://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1579, 1, '2019-08-13 15:35:59', '2019-08-13 15:35:59', '<em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:35:59', '2019-08-13 15:35:59', '', 1576, 'http://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1580, 1, '2019-08-13 15:36:12', '2019-08-13 15:36:12', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:36:12', '2019-08-13 15:36:12', '', 1576, 'http://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1581, 1, '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '2019-08-13 15:36:19', '', 1576, 'http://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1582, 1, '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '<strong><em>Featured in the 3<sup>rd</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring: A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'not-caring-a-unique-and-powerful-skill-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1582', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1583, 1, '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '<strong><em>Featured in the 3<sup>rd</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring: A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1582-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '2019-08-13 15:37:32', '', 1582, 'http://marcellus.in/1582-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1584, 1, '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> June edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'return-on-capital-super-heroes-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1584', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1585, 1, '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> June edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1584-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '2019-08-13 15:39:00', '', 1584, 'http://marcellus.in/1584-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1586, 1, '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '<strong><em>Featured in the 5<sup>th</sup> May edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers, when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87753f0b1a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>The Loser’s Game</em></a>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>', 'Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'avoiding-stupidity-is-easier-than-seeking-brilliance-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1586', 0, 'story', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1587, 1, '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '<strong><em>Featured in the 5<sup>th</sup> May edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers, when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87753f0b1a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>The Loser’s Game</em></a>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>', 'Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1586-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '2019-08-13 15:40:08', '', 1586, 'http://marcellus.in/1586-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1588, 1, '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '<strong><em>Featured in the 20th January edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'jack-bogle-the-selfless-preacher-of-the-passive-revolution-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1588', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1589, 1, '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '<strong><em>Featured in the 20th January edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1588-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '2019-08-13 15:41:23', '', 1588, 'http://marcellus.in/1588-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1590, 1, '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '<strong><em>Featured in the 24<sup>th</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWhen we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fun &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-makes-a-fulfilling-career-ask-a-teenager-2', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1590', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1591, 1, '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '<strong><em>Featured in the 24<sup>th</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWhen we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fun &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1590-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '2019-08-13 15:42:15', '', 1590, 'http://marcellus.in/1590-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1976, 1, '2019-10-23 07:24:32', '2019-10-23 07:24:32', '<em>Published on: 13 September, 2019</em>\n<div>\n\n<strong>Amidst the gloom &amp; doom of the economic downturn, we continue to see weekly inflows from small town India into Marcellus’ funds. More generally, equity inflows into mutual funds are holding up as are insurance premiums written by even third rung insurers. Our trips to small towns suggest that such flows point to a broader shift taking place in the Indian economy.</strong>\n\n<em>“We find several attributes of Indian households that are exceptional in the international context. Importantly, these distinctive features of Indian household balance sheets cannot be explained by differences in the demographic characteristics, wealth, or income of Indian households relative to their counterparts in other countries…A large fraction of the wealth of Indian households is in the form of physical assets (in particular, gold and real estate). This is unusual in the international context, and especially unusual for younger households, and for households in the bottom 40% of the wealth distribution, i.e., those with the lowest amounts of gross assets…Over the coming decade and a half, the elderly cohort is expected to grow by 75percent. Only a small fraction of this cohort has saved in private pension plans. Moreover, a large segment of the population of households in all age cohorts has not actively taken steps to insure adequate financial coverage during retirement. The need to finance adequate consumption during retirement is therefore a looming issue, and when combined with the low penetration of insurance, households appear particularly vulnerable to adverse shocks later in life.” </em>–<strong> Report of the Household Finance Committee, RBI, July 2017 </strong>(Source: <a href=\"https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF</a>\n\n<strong>The visitor from Haryana…</strong>\nA month ago an elderly doctor from a small town in Haryana came to our office. A paediatrician in his early-60s, the doctor explained that the real estate crash of the past five years had dented the value of his landholdings. Hence around three years ago he had invested in a small-midcap PMS offered by a prominent asset management house in Mumbai. The small-midcap correction of the past couple of years dented that portfolio as well. Then the doctor had stumbled upon the two books we have written based on Rob Kirby’s Coffee Can Investing principle. He had come to our office in Mumbai to know whether we could help him compound his life’s savings.\n\n<strong>…represents a generational shift in SME savings</strong>\nThe doctor from Haryana is representative of a broader trend. As we travel around India, we see that in small town India owners of SME businesses have understood the devastating implications of not being able to retire with a large enough corpus. In particular, they have figured out that their property &amp; gold will not be enough to fund them through retirement. The RBI’s remarkably well researched August 2017 Household Financial Committee report says that 95% of Indian households’ stock of wealth is in physical assets. As most people now realise that physical assets struggle to keep up even with the rate of inflation, SME owners are first turning their black money savings into white money by paying Income Tax (as attested by the growing number of Income Tax payers even in the sluggish economic climate). Then they are searching for providers of financial savings products who can give them steady compounding. As a result, in this economic downturn, equity inflows into mutual funds are holding up as are insurance premiums written by even third rung insurers (you can check out the data on <a href=\"https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund</a>\n\nThe practical implication of this trend is that the smaller the town, the quicker the SME owner warms to Marcellus’ offering. So, using Tamilnadu as an example, a pitch which takes an hour in Chennai, takes 45 minutes in Coimbatore (population: 1.6 million), 40 minutes in Tirrupur (population: 0.8 million) and around 30 minutes in Erode (population: 0.5 million). There are several reasons I believe for this pattern (which we have seen in Maharashtra as well):\n<ul>\n 	<li>The financialisation of savings has happened to a certain extent in big cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. In smaller cities, most SME owners have only a smattering of financial assets (usually fixed deposits and Life Insurance Company policies).</li>\n 	<li>The market for residential property and land still has some liquidity in the big cities – at least a few flats are being bought and sold in cities like Mumbai and Chennai. In smaller cities, the market for real estate is completely frozen solid. There have been no deals all year long in several of the smaller cities we have visited.</li>\n 	<li>The audience which meets us in the bigger cities tends to have a greater proportion of people from white collar professions – people who have a steady income and hence a greater sense of security. In the smaller cities, the audience is overwhelmingly <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/the-rise-of-indian-smes/\">SME owners</a> who have to live by their wits eg. textile traders, spice traders, car dealers, local real estate developers. These people have to live with volatility in their day job and hence crave the security that comes from investing in a relatively predictable financial asset.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIf India’s per capita income – which is around US$2000 today – grows at 5% per annum (which is what it has done in the last 10 years) over the next 10 years, the country’s per capita income will be around US$3,300. As­suming a population of 1.5 billion, this gives India a US$5 trillion GDP ten years hence. Assuming further that our household savings rate will stay at broadly 20% a decade out gives us annual household savings of US$1 trillion. At present, roughly half of household savings in India are in financial assets (the rest is in physical). If this ratio persists, then a decade out, annual household savings should be around US$500 billion in India.\n\nHowever, such a figure ignores the balance sheet shift that we highlighted in the opening paras of this note. As SME owners realise that they need to save more through financial rather than physical savings, they will start selling their real estate to invest in financial assets. The question is at what rate will this shift take place? As per RBI data, presently 95% of Indian wealth is in physical assets. If this number drops by 1% point per annum (which is what our reading of the Credit Suisse World Wealth Yearbook suggests) then that implies that around $100 billion per annum could get added to the annual flow into financial savings.\n\nWith potentially $500 billion of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another $100 billion arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), our back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade (from US$200 billion today to US$600 billion). That in turn makes it imperative that the country figures out how not just how to give Indian savers a fair deal but also how to harness these savings ideally at a national level. That in turn takes us into the whole debate on how the ongoing “formalisation” of the Indian economy can be managed in a less disruptive manner.\n\n</div>\nTo read our other published material, please visit\n<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">\"http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Marcellus: Rising Equity Inflows from Small Town India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1666-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 07:24:32', '2019-10-23 07:24:32', '', 1666, 'http://marcellus.in/1666-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1595, 1, '2019-08-19 14:28:41', '2019-08-19 14:28:41', '', 'Bruce Lee', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bruce-lee', '', '', '2019-08-19 14:28:41', '2019-08-19 14:28:41', '', 1594, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Bruce-Lee.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1596, 1, '2019-08-21 18:01:05', '2019-08-21 18:01:05', 'Whilst political corruption is extensively discussed in India, the corruption of the Indian judiciary is both reported less frequently by the press and discussed even less frequently by Indian voters. That’s a shame because alongside the executive and the Parliament, the judiciary is the third pillar of India’s democracy. This in-depth piece from the Caravan – a magazine which has the guts to speak its mind – details the steady erosion of ethics in the upper echelons of the Indian judiciary over the past 40 years.\r\nIt all started with Indira Gandhi: <em>““Indira was the worst,” a senior advocate of the Supreme Court told me recently. It is not far-fetched to imagine India’s entire legal community singing that line in unison. Indira Gandhi’s decision as prime minister to install AN Ray as the CJI in 1973—superseding the Supreme Court’s three most senior judges at the time—violated the convention of promotion by seniority that the judiciary has held dear for its entire history. The move was seen as retribution for the superseded trio’s positions in the Kesavananda Bharati case. In it, the Supreme Court, by a narrow majority of a 13-judge bench, had ruled that parliament could not pass any laws that violated the “basic structure” of the Constitution; and affirmed, for the first time, the court’s right to strike down any laws that did. Gandhi had not taken kindly to this curtailment of the government’s power.</em>\r\n<em>The pernicious fruit of what Gandhi sowed arrived, most famously, with the Habeas Corpus Case, which followed her declaration of the Emergency, in 1975. Faced with the government’s use of emergency powers to detain its critics without trial, a five-judge bench headed by Ray waved away citizens’ right to appeal their detention before a court of law. Only a single judge dared to dissent.”</em>\r\nIn the post-Indira world, through the 1980s, 90s and noughties, the judiciary fought back to entrench itself and its powers: <em>“After the Emergency, the judiciary faced the job of restoring its fallen image. Its response, always invoking the extremes of the Emergency for justification, was the consolidation of the doctrine of judicial primacy—part of which now means that judges must be pre-eminent in the appointment process. This presumed that, if left to itself, the judiciary would automatically produce competent and independent courts…Step by step, India’s top judges arrogated to themselves more and more of the authority to select and promote their own.”</em>\r\nWhen the NDA came to power in the 2014 it did not take a genius to figure out that one of its first priorities would be to get its arms around the judiciary: <em>“To add to the disquiet, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s parent body, had long wanted to inject the judiciary with its Hindutva ideology. A draft proposal for restructuring the Indian government that was circulated at a 1998 conference of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the student wing of the RSS, proposed the creation of a “guru sabha” comprising sadhus and sanyasis. Among other functions, this body would act as a judicial commission, with the power to nominate and impeach judges of the Supreme Court. This was reported in 2000 by Subramanian Swamy, now a member of the BJP, in a magazine article titled “The RSS game plan.””</em>\r\nIn 2015 the judiciary managed to see off the NDA’s attempt to replace the current collegium system followed by the Supreme Court for selecting its seniormost judges (a system where the judges choose other judges for the highest judicial posts available in the nation). But even as they were doing this, other corrupt judges were using political patronage to muscle their way to the top. It is worth reading the article to understand this process and what it means for the future of law &amp; order in India.', 'In Sua Causa: What the judiciary has done to itself', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'in-sua-causa-what-the-judiciary-has-done-to-itself', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:49:35', '2019-11-06 09:49:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1596', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1597, 1, '2019-08-21 18:01:05', '2019-08-21 18:01:05', 'Whilst political corruption is extensively discussed in India, the corruption of the Indian judiciary is both reported less frequently by the press and discussed even less frequently by Indian voters. That’s a shame because alongside the executive and the Parliament, the judiciary is the third pillar of India’s democracy. This in-depth piece from the Caravan – a magazine which has the guts to speak its mind – details the steady erosion of ethics in the upper echelons of the Indian judiciary over the past 40 years.\r\nIt all started with Indira Gandhi: <em>““Indira was the worst,” a senior advocate of the Supreme Court told me recently. It is not far-fetched to imagine India’s entire legal community singing that line in unison. Indira Gandhi’s decision as prime minister to install AN Ray as the CJI in 1973—superseding the Supreme Court’s three most senior judges at the time—violated the convention of promotion by seniority that the judiciary has held dear for its entire history. The move was seen as retribution for the superseded trio’s positions in the Kesavananda Bharati case. In it, the Supreme Court, by a narrow majority of a 13-judge bench, had ruled that parliament could not pass any laws that violated the “basic structure” of the Constitution; and affirmed, for the first time, the court’s right to strike down any laws that did. Gandhi had not taken kindly to this curtailment of the government’s power.</em>\r\n<em>The pernicious fruit of what Gandhi sowed arrived, most famously, with the Habeas Corpus Case, which followed her declaration of the Emergency, in 1975. Faced with the government’s use of emergency powers to detain its critics without trial, a five-judge bench headed by Ray waved away citizens’ right to appeal their detention before a court of law. Only a single judge dared to dissent.”</em>\r\nIn the post-Indira world, through the 1980s, 90s and noughties, the judiciary fought back to entrench itself and its powers: <em>“After the Emergency, the judiciary faced the job of restoring its fallen image. Its response, always invoking the extremes of the Emergency for justification, was the consolidation of the doctrine of judicial primacy—part of which now means that judges must be pre-eminent in the appointment process. This presumed that, if left to itself, the judiciary would automatically produce competent and independent courts…Step by step, India’s top judges arrogated to themselves more and more of the authority to select and promote their own.”</em>\r\nWhen the NDA came to power in the 2014 it did not take a genius to figure out that one of its first priorities would be to get its arms around the judiciary: <em>“To add to the disquiet, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s parent body, had long wanted to inject the judiciary with its Hindutva ideology. A draft proposal for restructuring the Indian government that was circulated at a 1998 conference of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the student wing of the RSS, proposed the creation of a “guru sabha” comprising sadhus and sanyasis. Among other functions, this body would act as a judicial commission, with the power to nominate and impeach judges of the Supreme Court. This was reported in 2000 by Subramanian Swamy, now a member of the BJP, in a magazine article titled “The RSS game plan.””</em>\r\nIn 2015 the judiciary managed to see off the NDA’s attempt to replace the current collegium system followed by the Supreme Court for selecting its seniormost judges (a system where the judges choose other judges for the highest judicial posts available in the nation). But even as they were doing this, other corrupt judges were using political patronage to muscle their way to the top. It is worth reading the article to understand this process and what it means for the future of law &amp; order in India.', 'In Sua Causa: What the judiciary has done to itself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1596-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:01:05', '2019-08-21 18:01:05', '', 1596, 'http://marcellus.in/1596-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1598, 1, '2019-08-21 18:19:12', '2019-08-21 18:19:12', 'You would think that whilst financial markets can change rapidly, social change takes place more gradually. This academic paper challenges that notion in an important area – how people of opposite sexes meet each other and enter a relationship specifically in the USA: <em>“We present new data from a nationally representative 2017 survey of American adults. For heterosexual couples in the U.S., meeting online has become the most popular way couples meet, eclipsing meeting through friends for the first time around 2013. Moreover, among the couples who meet online, the proportion who have met through the mediation of third persons has declined over time. We find that Internet meeting is displacing the roles that family and friends once played in bringing couples together.”</em>\r\nUntil 15 years ago, most American couples met via friends and family and this was thought to be a perfectly rational thing to do. “<em>The traditional system of dating, mediated by friends and family, has long been theorized to be optimal for mate selection. The family system is historically predicated, in part, on catalyzing and promoting the most socially acceptable mating outcomes for the younger generation (Rosenfeld 2007). Meeting through friends and family provided guarantees that any potential partner had been personally vetted and vouched for by trusted alters. Classic work by Bott (1957) found that social closure had benefits in terms of relationship quality and duration.” </em>\r\nThe internet however has displaced friends and family in terms of how couples meet: <em>“Despite the traditional advantages of meeting face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face through connections established by friends and family, the potential technological benefits of online dating are numerous as well (Cacioppo et al. 2013; Rosenfeld 2017), and are described below. Our Hypothesis 1 is that the percentage of heterosexual couples meeting online will have continued to grow beyond the previously identified 2005</em><em>‐</em><em>2009 plateau of 22%.</em><em>”</em>\r\nInterestingly, that does NOT necessarily mean that marriages in America will become more heterogenous. <em>“The broad dissemination of land line telephones in the US in the early 20th century, made it easier for Americans to stay in touch with relatives from out of town, but it did not change who interacted with whom. Most telephone calls were made to people one already knew (Fischer 1994)…</em> <em>Research on technology as reinforcing existing face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face social ties leads to our Hypothesis 2: Any rise in Internet dating will reinforce rather than displace the intermediary roles of friends and family.”</em>\r\nThat being said the authors contend that going forward the internet might well replace conventional social networks and thus lead to people choosing their mates from a broader network of people: <em>“There are several potential reasons why the ascendency of Internet dating might displace friends and family, despite the expectations of Hypothesis 2. First, the sets of people connected to Tinder, Match, and eHarmony are larger than the sets of people connected to one’s mother or friend. Larger choice sets are valuable to everyone engaged in search (Rosenfeld 2017). Larger choice sets are especially valuable for people who are searching for something unusual or hard</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>find, which is why online dating is even more valuable for gays and lesbians than it is for heterosexuals (Rosenfeld and Thomas 2012)</em><em>…</em><em>. Dating perfect strangers encountered online is potentially more discreet than dating a friend</em><em>’</em><em>s friend.”</em>\r\nIt would be incredibly interesting if someone could do research of this kind on the Indian marriage market. Companies like Matrimony and Jeevansathi are sitting on goldmines of data which could be analysed to assess which of the hypothesis outlined above are more relevant for India.', 'Disintermediating your friends', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'disintermediating-your-friends', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:48:06', '2019-11-06 09:48:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1598', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1599, 1, '2019-08-21 18:19:12', '2019-08-21 18:19:12', 'You would think that whilst financial markets can change rapidly, social change takes place more gradually. This academic paper challenges that notion in an important area – how people of opposite sexes meet each other and enter a relationship specifically in the USA: <em>“We present new data from a nationally representative 2017 survey of American adults. For heterosexual couples in the U.S., meeting online has become the most popular way couples meet, eclipsing meeting through friends for the first time around 2013. Moreover, among the couples who meet online, the proportion who have met through the mediation of third persons has declined over time. We find that Internet meeting is displacing the roles that family and friends once played in bringing couples together.”</em>\r\nUntil 15 years ago, most American couples met via friends and family and this was thought to be a perfectly rational thing to do. “<em>The traditional system of dating, mediated by friends and family, has long been theorized to be optimal for mate selection. The family system is historically predicated, in part, on catalyzing and promoting the most socially acceptable mating outcomes for the younger generation (Rosenfeld 2007). Meeting through friends and family provided guarantees that any potential partner had been personally vetted and vouched for by trusted alters. Classic work by Bott (1957) found that social closure had benefits in terms of relationship quality and duration.” </em>\r\nThe internet however has displaced friends and family in terms of how couples meet: <em>“Despite the traditional advantages of meeting face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face through connections established by friends and family, the potential technological benefits of online dating are numerous as well (Cacioppo et al. 2013; Rosenfeld 2017), and are described below. Our Hypothesis 1 is that the percentage of heterosexual couples meeting online will have continued to grow beyond the previously identified 2005</em><em>‐</em><em>2009 plateau of 22%.</em><em>”</em>\r\nInterestingly, that does NOT necessarily mean that marriages in America will become more heterogenous. <em>“The broad dissemination of land line telephones in the US in the early 20th century, made it easier for Americans to stay in touch with relatives from out of town, but it did not change who interacted with whom. Most telephone calls were made to people one already knew (Fischer 1994)…</em> <em>Research on technology as reinforcing existing face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face social ties leads to our Hypothesis 2: Any rise in Internet dating will reinforce rather than displace the intermediary roles of friends and family.”</em>\r\nThat being said the authors contend that going forward the internet might well replace conventional social networks and thus lead to people choosing their mates from a broader network of people: <em>“There are several potential reasons why the ascendency of Internet dating might displace friends and family, despite the expectations of Hypothesis 2. First, the sets of people connected to Tinder, Match, and eHarmony are larger than the sets of people connected to one’s mother or friend. Larger choice sets are valuable to everyone engaged in search (Rosenfeld 2017). Larger choice sets are especially valuable for people who are searching for something unusual or hard</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>find, which is why online dating is even more valuable for gays and lesbians than it is for heterosexuals (Rosenfeld and Thomas 2012)</em><em>…</em><em>. Dating perfect strangers encountered online is potentially more discreet than dating a friend</em><em>’</em><em>s friend.”</em>\r\nIt would be incredibly interesting if someone could do research of this kind on the Indian marriage market. Companies like Matrimony and Jeevansathi are sitting on goldmines of data which could be analysed to assess which of the hypothesis outlined above are more relevant for India.', 'Disintermediating your friends', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1598-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:19:12', '2019-08-21 18:19:12', '', 1598, 'http://marcellus.in/1598-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1600, 1, '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '‘Learning how to learn’ is arguably the most important skill that any of us can master. Furthermore, once you acquire/learn new things, you want to be able to retain them. Unfortunately, our schools are not focused on teaching us these skills. <em>“During the school years, most of us got used to spending hours at a time memorizing facts, equations, the names of the elements, French verbs, dates of key historical events. We found ourselves frantically cramming the night before a test. We probably read through our notes over and over, a gallon of coffee in hand, in the hope that the information would somehow lodge in our brains. Once the test was over, we doubtless forgot everything straight away.”</em>\r\nThis method of rote learning is tedious and ineffective.<em>” This is where the spacing effect comes in. It’s a wildly useful phenomenon: we are better able to recall information and concepts if we learn them in multiple, spread-out sessions. We can leverage this effect by using spaced repetition to slowly learn almost anything.”</em>\r\nSo what is spaced repetition? Gabriel Wyner gives an example in his book ‘Fluent Forever: How to Learn Any Language and Never Forget It’: <em>“Spaced repetition…[is] extraordinarily efficient. In a four-month period, practising for 30 minutes a day, you can expect to learn and retain 3600 flashcards with 90 to 95 percent accuracy. These flashcards can teach you an alphabet, vocabulary, grammar, and even pronunciation. And they can do it without becoming tedious because they’re always challenging enough to remain interesting and fun.”</em>\r\nThe man who discovered this is Hermann Ebbinghaus, a German psychologist. He figured out how the mind forgets (there is a lovely chart in the article showing this). That in turn led him towards a method to optimise retention. <em>“There is a way to slow down the process of forgetting. We need only to recall or revisit the information after we originally come across it. Going over the information later, at intervals, helps us remember a greater percentage of the material. Persistence will allow us to recall with 100% accuracy all that we want to remember….Under normal conditions, frequent repetitions aid memory. We know this intuitively. Just try to memorize this article on a single repetition. However much attention, focus, or individual ability you have, it won’t work.</em>\r\n<em>Memory mastery comes from repeated exposure to the material. Ebbinghaus observes, “Left to itself every mental content gradually loses its capacity for being revived, or at least suffers loss in this regard under the influence of time.” Cramming is not an effective memorization strategy. Lacking the robustness developed in later sessions, crammed facts soon vanish. Even something as important and frequently used as language can decay if not put into use.”</em>\r\nAstonishingly, no psychologist has as yet figured out why spaced repetition works so well. Hence the article presents some of theories which have been laid out to explain the efficacy of this technique. We find it even more surprising that schools don’t use this technique more frequently.', 'The Spacing Effect: How to Improve Learning and Maximise Retention', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-spacing-effect-how-to-improve-learning-and-maximise-retention', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1600', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1601, 1, '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '‘Learning how to learn’ is arguably the most important skill that any of us can master. Furthermore, once you acquire/learn new things, you want to be able to retain them. Unfortunately, our schools are not focused on teaching us these skills. <em>“During the school years, most of us got used to spending hours at a time memorizing facts, equations, the names of the elements, French verbs, dates of key historical events. We found ourselves frantically cramming the night before a test. We probably read through our notes over and over, a gallon of coffee in hand, in the hope that the information would somehow lodge in our brains. Once the test was over, we doubtless forgot everything straight away.”</em>\r\nThis method of rote learning is tedious and ineffective.<em>” This is where the spacing effect comes in. It’s a wildly useful phenomenon: we are better able to recall information and concepts if we learn them in multiple, spread-out sessions. We can leverage this effect by using spaced repetition to slowly learn almost anything.”</em>\r\nSo what is spaced repetition? Gabriel Wyner gives an example in his book ‘Fluent Forever: How to Learn Any Language and Never Forget It’: <em>“Spaced repetition…[is] extraordinarily efficient. In a four-month period, practising for 30 minutes a day, you can expect to learn and retain 3600 flashcards with 90 to 95 percent accuracy. These flashcards can teach you an alphabet, vocabulary, grammar, and even pronunciation. And they can do it without becoming tedious because they’re always challenging enough to remain interesting and fun.”</em>\r\nThe man who discovered this is Hermann Ebbinghaus, a German psychologist. He figured out how the mind forgets (there is a lovely chart in the article showing this). That in turn led him towards a method to optimise retention. <em>“There is a way to slow down the process of forgetting. We need only to recall or revisit the information after we originally come across it. Going over the information later, at intervals, helps us remember a greater percentage of the material. Persistence will allow us to recall with 100% accuracy all that we want to remember….Under normal conditions, frequent repetitions aid memory. We know this intuitively. Just try to memorize this article on a single repetition. However much attention, focus, or individual ability you have, it won’t work.</em>\r\n<em>Memory mastery comes from repeated exposure to the material. Ebbinghaus observes, “Left to itself every mental content gradually loses its capacity for being revived, or at least suffers loss in this regard under the influence of time.” Cramming is not an effective memorization strategy. Lacking the robustness developed in later sessions, crammed facts soon vanish. Even something as important and frequently used as language can decay if not put into use.”</em>\r\nAstonishingly, no psychologist has as yet figured out why spaced repetition works so well. Hence the article presents some of theories which have been laid out to explain the efficacy of this technique. We find it even more surprising that schools don’t use this technique more frequently.', 'The Spacing Effect: How to Improve Learning and Maximise Retention', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1600-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '2019-08-21 18:23:12', '', 1600, 'http://marcellus.in/1600-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1602, 1, '2019-08-21 18:24:43', '2019-08-21 18:24:43', 'Given the lifestyle of most professionals and the way they deal with broadcast &amp; social media <em>“many of us are highly overstimulated at best and addicted at worst to things that grab at our attention. Even worse, we don\'t realize the extent—as I wrote, Americans spend a whopping 11 hours a day engaging with media of some kind! It’s unclear what the long-term implications of this overstimulation are on our brains, but in my private practice working with executive clients, I have observed that this interferes with our ability to sustain attention, regulate our emotions in non-avoidant ways, and enjoy simple tasks that seem boring by comparison.”</em>\r\nIn chemical terms what is happening is that our brains have become accustomed to seeking dopamine shots relentlessly. <em>“Dopamine is the neurotransmitter in our brains that’s responsible for motivation and reward. To grossly oversimplify, dopaminergic drugs (e.g. stimulants such as Adderall, cocaine, &amp; methamphetamine) act on dopamine receptors like a key opening a lock, and over time, downregulate these receptors, which makes us less sensitive to dopamine. This results in using more and more of a stimulant to get the same effects, enabling the cycle of addiction. But even behaviors such as gaming or gambling can become problematic and addictive through the reinforcement that dopamine brings….This is not to demonize dopamine; it’s an important brain chemical,…</em> <em>my point is that we may be getting too much of a good thing, especially when dopamine reinforces behaviors that are out of line with our values.”</em>\r\nSo what is remedy? How can we calm down and rid ourselves of our dopamine addiction? The author, Dr Sepah, says <em>“I am popularizing “dopamine fasting” as the antidote to our overstimulated age. Dopamine fasting has precedent from psychiatric practice….To be clear: the goal is not to achieve a no/low dopamine state! Rather, taking a break from behaviors that trigger strong amounts of dopamine release (especially in a repeated fashion) allows our brain to recover and restore itself. Most importantly, dopamine fasting is training yourself to have more control and flexibility over whether or not you engage in a behavior when you need to (e.g. choosing not to procrastinate when you have a deadline).”</em>\r\nThe doctor proceeds to recommend six types of behaviours from which we need to do take breaks from (i.e. avoid or “fast”) on an intermittent basis:\r\n·       Pleasure eating\r\n·       Internet/gaming\r\n·       Gambling/shopping\r\n·       Porn/Masturbation\r\n·       Thrill/novelty seeking\r\n·       Recreational drugs\r\nThe doctor then gives you a fasting timetable: <em>“A suggested schedule for dopamine fasting is as follows:</em>\r\n<em>1-4 hours at the end of the day (depending on work &amp; family demands)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend day (spent it outside on a Saturday or Sunday)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend per quarter (go on a local trip)</em>\r\n<em>1 week per year (go on vacation!)”</em>\r\nTo our untrained eye, this appears to be a “beginners guide to vipassana”. That being said, as a way to settle down our monkey mind, Dr Sepah’s remedy sounds useful.', 'Dopamine Fasting - The Hot Silicon Valley Trend', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dopamine-fasting-the-hot-silicon-valley-trend', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:38:45', '2019-11-06 09:38:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1602', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1603, 1, '2019-08-21 18:24:43', '2019-08-21 18:24:43', 'Given the lifestyle of most professionals and the way they deal with broadcast &amp; social media <em>“many of us are highly overstimulated at best and addicted at worst to things that grab at our attention. Even worse, we don\'t realize the extent—as I wrote, Americans spend a whopping 11 hours a day engaging with media of some kind! It’s unclear what the long-term implications of this overstimulation are on our brains, but in my private practice working with executive clients, I have observed that this interferes with our ability to sustain attention, regulate our emotions in non-avoidant ways, and enjoy simple tasks that seem boring by comparison.”</em>\r\nIn chemical terms what is happening is that our brains have become accustomed to seeking dopamine shots relentlessly. <em>“Dopamine is the neurotransmitter in our brains that’s responsible for motivation and reward. To grossly oversimplify, dopaminergic drugs (e.g. stimulants such as Adderall, cocaine, &amp; methamphetamine) act on dopamine receptors like a key opening a lock, and over time, downregulate these receptors, which makes us less sensitive to dopamine. This results in using more and more of a stimulant to get the same effects, enabling the cycle of addiction. But even behaviors such as gaming or gambling can become problematic and addictive through the reinforcement that dopamine brings….This is not to demonize dopamine; it’s an important brain chemical,…</em> <em>my point is that we may be getting too much of a good thing, especially when dopamine reinforces behaviors that are out of line with our values.”</em>\r\nSo what is remedy? How can we calm down and rid ourselves of our dopamine addiction? The author, Dr Sepah, says <em>“I am popularizing “dopamine fasting” as the antidote to our overstimulated age. Dopamine fasting has precedent from psychiatric practice….To be clear: the goal is not to achieve a no/low dopamine state! Rather, taking a break from behaviors that trigger strong amounts of dopamine release (especially in a repeated fashion) allows our brain to recover and restore itself. Most importantly, dopamine fasting is training yourself to have more control and flexibility over whether or not you engage in a behavior when you need to (e.g. choosing not to procrastinate when you have a deadline).”</em>\r\nThe doctor proceeds to recommend six types of behaviours from which we need to do take breaks from (i.e. avoid or “fast”) on an intermittent basis:\r\n·       Pleasure eating\r\n·       Internet/gaming\r\n·       Gambling/shopping\r\n·       Porn/Masturbation\r\n·       Thrill/novelty seeking\r\n·       Recreational drugs\r\nThe doctor then gives you a fasting timetable: <em>“A suggested schedule for dopamine fasting is as follows:</em>\r\n<em>1-4 hours at the end of the day (depending on work &amp; family demands)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend day (spent it outside on a Saturday or Sunday)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend per quarter (go on a local trip)</em>\r\n<em>1 week per year (go on vacation!)”</em>\r\nTo our untrained eye, this appears to be a “beginners guide to vipassana”. That being said, as a way to settle down our monkey mind, Dr Sepah’s remedy sounds useful.', 'Dopamine Fasting - The Hot Silicon Valley Trend', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1602-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:24:43', '2019-08-21 18:24:43', '', 1602, 'http://marcellus.in/1602-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1604, 1, '2019-08-21 18:25:37', '2019-08-21 18:25:37', 'How to spot the peak of a market bubble? WeWork’s planned IPO might just give you the template – a flawed business model with assets and liabilities totally out of whack, an up-in-the-air valuation, outright corporate governance misdemeanours, related party transactions, creative accounting in all its glory, a self-aggrandizing founder and here’s the best part – to call it the peak of the tech bubble, it is not even a tech company. The IPO prospectus that came out earlier this week has stunned analysts and investors alike for the bold disclosures. Whilst you can indulge yourself with several scathing and some hilariously so pieces on the subject, Chris Bryant at Bloomberg sums it up crisply for us.\r\n<strong>Accounting and Governance Shenanigans</strong>\r\n<em>“The “hip” office space provider makes huge losses but its individual locations are somehow deemed profitable thanks to flattering accounting adjustments. While there was no mention this time of the company’s “community-adjusted Ebitda,” a much-maligned metric that boosted its profit shamelessly, it came up with an equally problematic “contribution margin” even though that positive figure excludes some hefty corporate operating expenses.</em>\r\n<em>…Neumann’s grip on the company is equally troubling as he’ll still control most of the voting rights after the listing. That gives him the power to remove directors and executives who displease him and, of course, to dictate strategy. It’s an unequal relationship too. Despite his apparent importance he doesn’t have an employment contract, meaning he could leave at any time in theory.</em>\r\n<em>…Various eye-opening “related-party” transactions (in this case, WeWork taking out leases on buildings owned by Neumann) are declared, as my colleague Shira Ovide points out. Meanwhile, three of the banks underwriting the IPO have extended Neumann a $500 million credit line secured against his shares. If he were ever unable to satisfy a margin call, the lenders could seize and sell stock, the prospectus notes, putting downward pressure on the share price. In other words, the interests of Neumann and other investors aren’t necessarily aligned.”</em>\r\n<strong>Business model and Valuation</strong>\r\n<em>“Just because Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank entities and other backers believe this company is worth at least $47 billion (or perhaps twice that if the targets of a recent stock incentive plan are any guide) doesn’t just make it so. The reality is that that WeWork operates in a cyclical sector with few barriers to new competitors, and it remains both a corporate governance nightmare and a cash bonfire. Its main listed rival, the U.K.’s IWG Plc, is capitalized at just 3.75 billion pounds ($4.4 billion). And that’s despite it generating more revenue than WeWork and making a profit.</em>\r\n<em>…But how can one put a value on the shares anyway? The company doesn’t plan on paying dividends, which is hardly surprising in view of the $2.5 billion of cash it burned through in the first six months of this year. And you can’t easily apply a multiple of earnings to estimate its value because WeWork doesn’t have any of those either – and won’t do for the foreseeable future.</em>\r\n<em>Net losses, which totaled $1.6 billion in 2018, “may increase as a percentage of revenue in the near term and will continue to grow on an absolute basis,” the company said, ominously. </em>\r\n<em>This all matters because WeWork has a growing pile of debt and $47 billion of mostly long-term lease obligations. Unlike a WeWork membership, those leases can’t be cancelled easily. Revenue that’s been committed covers less than one-tenth of that total lease obligation“</em>\r\n<strong>Founder</strong>\r\n<em>“…Meanwhile, WeWork’s description of Adam Neumann, its co-founder and chief executive, stops short of claiming he can walk on water, but only just: “Adam is a unique leader who has proven he can simultaneously wear the hats of visionary, operator and innovator, while thriving as a community and culture creator,” it says. That’s a lot of headgear.”</em>', 'WeWork Stands Before Us in All Its Naked Glory', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'wework-stands-before-us-in-all-its-naked-glory', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:36:42', '2019-11-06 09:36:42', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1604', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1605, 1, '2019-08-21 18:25:37', '2019-08-21 18:25:37', 'How to spot the peak of a market bubble? WeWork’s planned IPO might just give you the template – a flawed business model with assets and liabilities totally out of whack, an up-in-the-air valuation, outright corporate governance misdemeanours, related party transactions, creative accounting in all its glory, a self-aggrandizing founder and here’s the best part – to call it the peak of the tech bubble, it is not even a tech company. The IPO prospectus that came out earlier this week has stunned analysts and investors alike for the bold disclosures. Whilst you can indulge yourself with several scathing and some hilariously so pieces on the subject, Chris Bryant at Bloomberg sums it up crisply for us.\r\n<strong>Accounting and Governance Shenanigans</strong>\r\n<em>“The “hip” office space provider makes huge losses but its individual locations are somehow deemed profitable thanks to flattering accounting adjustments. While there was no mention this time of the company’s “community-adjusted Ebitda,” a much-maligned metric that boosted its profit shamelessly, it came up with an equally problematic “contribution margin” even though that positive figure excludes some hefty corporate operating expenses.</em>\r\n<em>…Neumann’s grip on the company is equally troubling as he’ll still control most of the voting rights after the listing. That gives him the power to remove directors and executives who displease him and, of course, to dictate strategy. It’s an unequal relationship too. Despite his apparent importance he doesn’t have an employment contract, meaning he could leave at any time in theory.</em>\r\n<em>…Various eye-opening “related-party” transactions (in this case, WeWork taking out leases on buildings owned by Neumann) are declared, as my colleague Shira Ovide points out. Meanwhile, three of the banks underwriting the IPO have extended Neumann a $500 million credit line secured against his shares. If he were ever unable to satisfy a margin call, the lenders could seize and sell stock, the prospectus notes, putting downward pressure on the share price. In other words, the interests of Neumann and other investors aren’t necessarily aligned.”</em>\r\n<strong>Business model and Valuation</strong>\r\n<em>“Just because Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank entities and other backers believe this company is worth at least $47 billion (or perhaps twice that if the targets of a recent stock incentive plan are any guide) doesn’t just make it so. The reality is that that WeWork operates in a cyclical sector with few barriers to new competitors, and it remains both a corporate governance nightmare and a cash bonfire. Its main listed rival, the U.K.’s IWG Plc, is capitalized at just 3.75 billion pounds ($4.4 billion). And that’s despite it generating more revenue than WeWork and making a profit.</em>\r\n<em>…But how can one put a value on the shares anyway? The company doesn’t plan on paying dividends, which is hardly surprising in view of the $2.5 billion of cash it burned through in the first six months of this year. And you can’t easily apply a multiple of earnings to estimate its value because WeWork doesn’t have any of those either – and won’t do for the foreseeable future.</em>\r\n<em>Net losses, which totaled $1.6 billion in 2018, “may increase as a percentage of revenue in the near term and will continue to grow on an absolute basis,” the company said, ominously. </em>\r\n<em>This all matters because WeWork has a growing pile of debt and $47 billion of mostly long-term lease obligations. Unlike a WeWork membership, those leases can’t be cancelled easily. Revenue that’s been committed covers less than one-tenth of that total lease obligation“</em>\r\n<strong>Founder</strong>\r\n<em>“…Meanwhile, WeWork’s description of Adam Neumann, its co-founder and chief executive, stops short of claiming he can walk on water, but only just: “Adam is a unique leader who has proven he can simultaneously wear the hats of visionary, operator and innovator, while thriving as a community and culture creator,” it says. That’s a lot of headgear.”</em>', 'WeWork Stands Before Us in All Its Naked Glory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1604-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:25:37', '2019-08-21 18:25:37', '', 1604, 'http://marcellus.in/1604-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1606, 1, '2019-08-21 18:26:32', '2019-08-21 18:26:32', 'At the core of Marcellus’ investment philosophy is the hunt for quasi-monopolies i.e, companies that dominate their sectors, especially where the product or service is essential to the common man. Such dominance often comes with superior RoCE’s (Return on Capital Employed) which in turn allows high reinvestment rates and therefore long term sustainable profit growth. This piece in the Guardian takes a similar look at the American consumption basket and points to the trend of a handful of companies dominating product categories. This might seem to suggest that the consumer is bereft of choice and hence capitalism has failed in its duty to drive competition and offer the consumer the freedom to choose. The article however argues that such dominance may not necessarily be a failure of capitalism but indeed the result of capitalism where companies that deliver value to the consumer through innovation and efficiencies and offer better products at lower prices end up taking the lion’s share of the consumer wallet. Marcellus’ portfolio companies too exhibit similar traits where despite high market shares, they are averse to taking price hikes but instead strive to drive profitability through operating efficiencies.\r\n<em>“American culture valorizes the small. Small-town life is overrepresented and romanticized on the screen – think Hawkins in Stranger Things – a form of escapism in a country where 80% of people live in a city, but two in five say they’d prefer a rural or small-town home. Likewise companies: US adults are three times as likely to have a “very favorable” view of small businesses as they are of large enterprises (59% v 17%), according to a 2018 survey from the Public Affairs Council. The nostalgia for small-town life and “mom and pop” stores stands in stark contrast not only to an urbanized population but the power of large companies. Capitalism is an engine of choice-making and competition, but very often the competition is between brands owned by the same company, or between small numbers of large economic players. Smallness rules the imagination; bigness rules the high street.</em>\r\n<em>From the moment we wake up to eat our cereal and brush our teeth, our consumer choices are dominated by a handful of large companies.</em>\r\n<em><strong>7.30am: </strong></em><em>You brush every morning, right? Good. And there are so very many pastes to choose from. But most of these are produced by one of the three companies that dominate the market: Crest (20%), Colgate (21%) and Sensodyne (12%). </em>\r\n<em><strong>8am: </strong></em><em>A meal created by modernity, cereal has become a staple of western diets (unfortunately, but that’s another story). And it does not come artisan crafted from down the road, but from huge companies: Kellogg and General Mills have virtually carved the market up between them, accounting for almost a third of sales each.</em>\r\n<em><strong>8.30am: </strong></em><em>Most Americans drive to work, and most do so in a car manufactured by one of four companies: General Motors, Ford, Toyota or Fiat Chrysler. Together these four account for 60% of car sales. That said, the next five companies account for 30%: Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai and Kia. Here at least there seems to be some pretty robust competition, not least from overseas. But let’s see if that lasts…….</em>\r\n<em><strong>6pm: </strong></em><em>Calling a friend for after-work plans? That will be with an iPhone, most likely (55% market share): or perhaps a Samsung (25%). Either way, the chances are it will be using either Verizon or AT&amp;T, who between them control two-thirds of the wireless market.</em>\r\n<em>Big companies dominate consumption. This is not a bad thing in itself. Companies get big by winning customers, and they win customers by providing a good product and/or service, which is the whole point of consumer markets. Different divisions of large companies may compete against each other; consumers are often unaware that they are choosing between two products owned by the same company. The problem comes if success leads to incumbency, with large, powerful companies able to use their power to shape regulations to suit them, rather than assist their competitors. Being market-friendly is not the same thing as being business-friendly, a confusion common to politicians. Big is neither beautiful nor bad, so long as regulators remain faithful to consumers, rather than the companies serving them.”</em>', 'Starbucks v Dunkin\': how capitalism gives us the illusion of choice', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'starbucks-v-dunkin-how-capitalism-gives-us-the-illusion-of-choice', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:34:40', '2019-11-06 09:34:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1606', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1607, 1, '2019-08-21 18:26:32', '2019-08-21 18:26:32', 'At the core of Marcellus’ investment philosophy is the hunt for quasi-monopolies i.e, companies that dominate their sectors, especially where the product or service is essential to the common man. Such dominance often comes with superior RoCE’s (Return on Capital Employed) which in turn allows high reinvestment rates and therefore long term sustainable profit growth. This piece in the Guardian takes a similar look at the American consumption basket and points to the trend of a handful of companies dominating product categories. This might seem to suggest that the consumer is bereft of choice and hence capitalism has failed in its duty to drive competition and offer the consumer the freedom to choose. The article however argues that such dominance may not necessarily be a failure of capitalism but indeed the result of capitalism where companies that deliver value to the consumer through innovation and efficiencies and offer better products at lower prices end up taking the lion’s share of the consumer wallet. Marcellus’ portfolio companies too exhibit similar traits where despite high market shares, they are averse to taking price hikes but instead strive to drive profitability through operating efficiencies.\r\n<em>“American culture valorizes the small. Small-town life is overrepresented and romanticized on the screen – think Hawkins in Stranger Things – a form of escapism in a country where 80% of people live in a city, but two in five say they’d prefer a rural or small-town home. Likewise companies: US adults are three times as likely to have a “very favorable” view of small businesses as they are of large enterprises (59% v 17%), according to a 2018 survey from the Public Affairs Council. The nostalgia for small-town life and “mom and pop” stores stands in stark contrast not only to an urbanized population but the power of large companies. Capitalism is an engine of choice-making and competition, but very often the competition is between brands owned by the same company, or between small numbers of large economic players. Smallness rules the imagination; bigness rules the high street.</em>\r\n<em>From the moment we wake up to eat our cereal and brush our teeth, our consumer choices are dominated by a handful of large companies.</em>\r\n<em><strong>7.30am: </strong></em><em>You brush every morning, right? Good. And there are so very many pastes to choose from. But most of these are produced by one of the three companies that dominate the market: Crest (20%), Colgate (21%) and Sensodyne (12%). </em>\r\n<em><strong>8am: </strong></em><em>A meal created by modernity, cereal has become a staple of western diets (unfortunately, but that’s another story). And it does not come artisan crafted from down the road, but from huge companies: Kellogg and General Mills have virtually carved the market up between them, accounting for almost a third of sales each.</em>\r\n<em><strong>8.30am: </strong></em><em>Most Americans drive to work, and most do so in a car manufactured by one of four companies: General Motors, Ford, Toyota or Fiat Chrysler. Together these four account for 60% of car sales. That said, the next five companies account for 30%: Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai and Kia. Here at least there seems to be some pretty robust competition, not least from overseas. But let’s see if that lasts…….</em>\r\n<em><strong>6pm: </strong></em><em>Calling a friend for after-work plans? That will be with an iPhone, most likely (55% market share): or perhaps a Samsung (25%). Either way, the chances are it will be using either Verizon or AT&amp;T, who between them control two-thirds of the wireless market.</em>\r\n<em>Big companies dominate consumption. This is not a bad thing in itself. Companies get big by winning customers, and they win customers by providing a good product and/or service, which is the whole point of consumer markets. Different divisions of large companies may compete against each other; consumers are often unaware that they are choosing between two products owned by the same company. The problem comes if success leads to incumbency, with large, powerful companies able to use their power to shape regulations to suit them, rather than assist their competitors. Being market-friendly is not the same thing as being business-friendly, a confusion common to politicians. Big is neither beautiful nor bad, so long as regulators remain faithful to consumers, rather than the companies serving them.”</em>', 'Starbucks v Dunkin\': how capitalism gives us the illusion of choice', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1606-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-21 18:26:32', '2019-08-21 18:26:32', '', 1606, 'http://marcellus.in/1606-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1609, 1, '2019-08-25 18:02:10', '2019-08-25 18:02:10', 'Cal Newport begins by telling us for most of human history, messaging was synchronous by default i.e. in an office or a factory people who needed to be told something had to meet the message giver face to face. As a result, for much of the 20<sup>th</sup> century <em>“the push to create what communication specialists call “asynchronous messaging” in the workplace. An interaction is said to be synchronous when all parties participate at the same time, while standing in the same room, perhaps, or by telephone. Asynchronous communication, by contrast, doesn’t require the receiver to be present when a message is sent. I can send a message to you whenever I want; you answer it at your leisure.”</em>\r\nInitially, offices used message slips to make messaging asynchronous. However, as message slips started piling up on people’s desks, the limitations of this messaging medium became apparent. In the midst of this chaos, arrived e-mail: <em>“Then, in the nineteen-eighties, a far more convenient technology arrived, in the form of desktop computers connected through digital networks. As these networks spread, e-mail emerged as the killer app for bringing asynchronous communication to the office. To better understand this shift, I talked to Gloria Mark, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who studies the impact that computer technology has had on the workplace. “I can show it to you,” she told me, when I asked about the spread of e-mail. She showed me a data table she had constructed, which summarized the results of office-time-use studies from 1965 to 2006. The studies can be divided into two groups: before e-mail and after. In the studies conducted before e-mail, workers spent around forty per cent of their time in “scheduled meetings,” and twenty per cent engaged in “desk work.” In those conducted after e-mail, the percentages are swapped.</em>\r\n<em>With the arrival of practical asynchronous communication, people replaced a significant portion of the interaction that used to unfold in person with on-demand digital messaging, and they haven’t looked back. The Radicati Group, a technology-research firm, now estimates that more than a hundred and twenty-eight billion business e-mails will be sent and received daily in 2019, with the average business user dealing with a hundred and twenty-six messages a day. The domination of asynchronous communication over synchronous collaboration has been so complete that some developers of digital-collaboration tools mock the fact that we ever relied on anything so primitive as in-person meetings.”</em>\r\nHowever, life is not as simple as it looks. Newport now introduces a twist in the story: <em>“As e-mail was taking over the modern office, researchers in the theory of distributed systems—the subfield in which, as a computer scientist, I specialize—were also studying the trade-offs between synchrony and asynchrony. As it happens, the conclusion they reached was exactly the opposite of the prevailing consensus. They became convinced that synchrony was superior and that spreading communication out over time hindered work rather than enabling it….</em>\r\n<em>Investigating asynchronous communication using a mathematical approach known as algorithm theory, they [computer scientists] discovered that spreading out communication with unpredictable delays introduced new complexities that were difficult to reduce. While the business world came to see synchrony as an obstacle to overcome, theorists began to realize that it was fundamental for effective collaboration…It turns out that asynchrony makes coördination so complicated that it’s almost always worth paying the price required to introduce at least some synchronization.”</em>\r\nSo why is any of this of interest to you and me? It is because Cal Newport goes on to explain that the current paradigm of emails, phone calls and instant messaging that we use to work is actually neither efficient (from the perspective of time management) nor very effective (in terms of the quality of decision making): <em>“Anyone who works in a standard office environment has firsthand experience with the problems that followed the enthusiastic embrace of asynchronous communication. As the distributed-system theorists discovered, shifting away from synchronous interaction makes coördination more complex. The dream of replacing the quick phone call with an even quicker e-mail message didn’t come to fruition; instead, what once could have been resolved in a few minutes on the phone now takes a dozen back-and-forth messages to sort out. With larger groups of people, this increased complexity becomes even more notable. Is an unresponsive colleague just delayed, or is she completely checked out? When has consensus been reached in a group e-mail exchange? Are you, the e-mail recipient, required to respond, or can you stay silent without holding up the decision-making process? Was your point properly understood, or do you now need to clarify with a follow-up message? Office workers pondering these puzzles—the real-life analogues of the theory of distributed systems—now dedicate an increasing amount of time to managing a growing number of never-ending interactions.”</em>\r\nFurthermore as we frequently check our email or our messages, our attention spans are blown to bits with consequential impact on our depth of thinking: <em>“Last year, the software company RescueTime gathered and aggregated anonymized computer-usage logs from tens of thousands of people. When its data scientists crunched the numbers, they found that, on average, users were checking e-mail or instant-messenger services like Slack once every six minutes. Not long before, a team led by Gloria Mark, the U.C. Irvine professor, had installed similar logging software on the computers of employees at a large corporation; the study found that the employees checked their in-boxes an average of seventy-seven times a day. Although we shifted toward asynchronous communication so that we could stop wasting time playing phone tag or arranging meetings, communicating in the workplace had become more onerous than it used to be. Work has become something we do in the small slivers of time that remain amid our Sisyphean skirmishes with our in-boxes.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What is the solution? <em>“Isolated examples of well-planned, structured synchrony are starting to emerge in the business world. Many of these experiments come from the tech sector…Recently, the founder and CEO of a publicly traded technology company told me that he spends at most two or three hours a week sending and receiving e-mails; he has replaced most of his asynchronous messaging with a “regular rhythm” of meetings, which allows him to efficiently address issues in real time…</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, the software-development firm Basecamp now allows employees to set professor-style office hours: if you need to talk to an expert on a given subject, you can sign up for her office hours instead of shooting her an e-mail. “You get that person’s full, undivided attention,” Jason Fried, the company’s co-founder and C.E.O., said, on the podcast Curious Minds. “It’s such a calmer way of doing this.” If something is urgent and the expert’s office hours aren’t for another few days, then, Fried explained, “that’s just how it goes.”</em>\r\n<em>At many technology companies, a popular alternative to hyperactive asynchronous messaging is a collaboration framework called Scrum, popular among software developers. Teams of programmers using Scrum divide their efforts into “sprints,” each focussed on introducing a related set of features to a piece of software. During these sprints, which last from one to four weeks, the team meets once a day. Everyone gets a chance to speak. Team members describe what they accomplished yesterday and what they’re going to work on today; if they think they’ll need help, they let the right people know. In classic Scrum, colored notes pinned to a board are arranged to publicly reflect these commitments, so that there’s no ambiguity about the plan. These meetings are often held standing up, so that no one feels tempted to bloviate, and they typically last for around fifteen minutes. The idea that a quarter of an hour of structured synchrony is enough time to enable a full day of work might sound preposterous, but, for more than twelve million software developers, it seems to be working. Many people are surprised when they first learn about the effectiveness of Scrum…”</em>', 'Was e-mail a mistake?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'was-e-mail-a-mistake', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:33:11', '2019-11-06 09:33:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1609', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1610, 1, '2019-08-25 18:02:10', '2019-08-25 18:02:10', 'Cal Newport begins by telling us for most of human history, messaging was synchronous by default i.e. in an office or a factory people who needed to be told something had to meet the message giver face to face. As a result, for much of the 20<sup>th</sup> century <em>“the push to create what communication specialists call “asynchronous messaging” in the workplace. An interaction is said to be synchronous when all parties participate at the same time, while standing in the same room, perhaps, or by telephone. Asynchronous communication, by contrast, doesn’t require the receiver to be present when a message is sent. I can send a message to you whenever I want; you answer it at your leisure.”</em>\r\nInitially, offices used message slips to make messaging asynchronous. However, as message slips started piling up on people’s desks, the limitations of this messaging medium became apparent. In the midst of this chaos, arrived e-mail: <em>“Then, in the nineteen-eighties, a far more convenient technology arrived, in the form of desktop computers connected through digital networks. As these networks spread, e-mail emerged as the killer app for bringing asynchronous communication to the office. To better understand this shift, I talked to Gloria Mark, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who studies the impact that computer technology has had on the workplace. “I can show it to you,” she told me, when I asked about the spread of e-mail. She showed me a data table she had constructed, which summarized the results of office-time-use studies from 1965 to 2006. The studies can be divided into two groups: before e-mail and after. In the studies conducted before e-mail, workers spent around forty per cent of their time in “scheduled meetings,” and twenty per cent engaged in “desk work.” In those conducted after e-mail, the percentages are swapped.</em>\r\n<em>With the arrival of practical asynchronous communication, people replaced a significant portion of the interaction that used to unfold in person with on-demand digital messaging, and they haven’t looked back. The Radicati Group, a technology-research firm, now estimates that more than a hundred and twenty-eight billion business e-mails will be sent and received daily in 2019, with the average business user dealing with a hundred and twenty-six messages a day. The domination of asynchronous communication over synchronous collaboration has been so complete that some developers of digital-collaboration tools mock the fact that we ever relied on anything so primitive as in-person meetings.”</em>\r\nHowever, life is not as simple as it looks. Newport now introduces a twist in the story: <em>“As e-mail was taking over the modern office, researchers in the theory of distributed systems—the subfield in which, as a computer scientist, I specialize—were also studying the trade-offs between synchrony and asynchrony. As it happens, the conclusion they reached was exactly the opposite of the prevailing consensus. They became convinced that synchrony was superior and that spreading communication out over time hindered work rather than enabling it….</em>\r\n<em>Investigating asynchronous communication using a mathematical approach known as algorithm theory, they [computer scientists] discovered that spreading out communication with unpredictable delays introduced new complexities that were difficult to reduce. While the business world came to see synchrony as an obstacle to overcome, theorists began to realize that it was fundamental for effective collaboration…It turns out that asynchrony makes coördination so complicated that it’s almost always worth paying the price required to introduce at least some synchronization.”</em>\r\nSo why is any of this of interest to you and me? It is because Cal Newport goes on to explain that the current paradigm of emails, phone calls and instant messaging that we use to work is actually neither efficient (from the perspective of time management) nor very effective (in terms of the quality of decision making): <em>“Anyone who works in a standard office environment has firsthand experience with the problems that followed the enthusiastic embrace of asynchronous communication. As the distributed-system theorists discovered, shifting away from synchronous interaction makes coördination more complex. The dream of replacing the quick phone call with an even quicker e-mail message didn’t come to fruition; instead, what once could have been resolved in a few minutes on the phone now takes a dozen back-and-forth messages to sort out. With larger groups of people, this increased complexity becomes even more notable. Is an unresponsive colleague just delayed, or is she completely checked out? When has consensus been reached in a group e-mail exchange? Are you, the e-mail recipient, required to respond, or can you stay silent without holding up the decision-making process? Was your point properly understood, or do you now need to clarify with a follow-up message? Office workers pondering these puzzles—the real-life analogues of the theory of distributed systems—now dedicate an increasing amount of time to managing a growing number of never-ending interactions.”</em>\r\nFurthermore as we frequently check our email or our messages, our attention spans are blown to bits with consequential impact on our depth of thinking: <em>“Last year, the software company RescueTime gathered and aggregated anonymized computer-usage logs from tens of thousands of people. When its data scientists crunched the numbers, they found that, on average, users were checking e-mail or instant-messenger services like Slack once every six minutes. Not long before, a team led by Gloria Mark, the U.C. Irvine professor, had installed similar logging software on the computers of employees at a large corporation; the study found that the employees checked their in-boxes an average of seventy-seven times a day. Although we shifted toward asynchronous communication so that we could stop wasting time playing phone tag or arranging meetings, communicating in the workplace had become more onerous than it used to be. Work has become something we do in the small slivers of time that remain amid our Sisyphean skirmishes with our in-boxes.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What is the solution? <em>“Isolated examples of well-planned, structured synchrony are starting to emerge in the business world. Many of these experiments come from the tech sector…Recently, the founder and CEO of a publicly traded technology company told me that he spends at most two or three hours a week sending and receiving e-mails; he has replaced most of his asynchronous messaging with a “regular rhythm” of meetings, which allows him to efficiently address issues in real time…</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, the software-development firm Basecamp now allows employees to set professor-style office hours: if you need to talk to an expert on a given subject, you can sign up for her office hours instead of shooting her an e-mail. “You get that person’s full, undivided attention,” Jason Fried, the company’s co-founder and C.E.O., said, on the podcast Curious Minds. “It’s such a calmer way of doing this.” If something is urgent and the expert’s office hours aren’t for another few days, then, Fried explained, “that’s just how it goes.”</em>\r\n<em>At many technology companies, a popular alternative to hyperactive asynchronous messaging is a collaboration framework called Scrum, popular among software developers. Teams of programmers using Scrum divide their efforts into “sprints,” each focussed on introducing a related set of features to a piece of software. During these sprints, which last from one to four weeks, the team meets once a day. Everyone gets a chance to speak. Team members describe what they accomplished yesterday and what they’re going to work on today; if they think they’ll need help, they let the right people know. In classic Scrum, colored notes pinned to a board are arranged to publicly reflect these commitments, so that there’s no ambiguity about the plan. These meetings are often held standing up, so that no one feels tempted to bloviate, and they typically last for around fifteen minutes. The idea that a quarter of an hour of structured synchrony is enough time to enable a full day of work might sound preposterous, but, for more than twelve million software developers, it seems to be working. Many people are surprised when they first learn about the effectiveness of Scrum…”</em>', 'Was e-mail a mistake?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1609-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:02:10', '2019-08-25 18:02:10', '', 1609, 'http://marcellus.in/1609-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1611, 1, '2019-08-25 18:03:11', '2019-08-25 18:03:11', 'This piece in the WIRED is an adaptation from the book <em>The Breakthrough: Immunotherapy and the Race to Cure Cancer. </em>Quite a riveting story about how when the parents of a six year old offered a bunch of researchers a chance to save their daughter when doctors of conventional medicine had given up all hope. How these researchers had been trialling the cure for decades and finally came up with the ‘Breakthrough” goes to demonstrate the perseverance of scientists and more importantly the incremental contributions made by several scientists working on the solution across the world, which all added up to the eventual ‘discovery’.\r\n<em>“Emily Whitehead would be the world’s first kid to try an experimental cancer therapy, called CAR-T. Researchers were offering to reprogram her immune cells into a clone army of cancer-targeting serial killers. A CAR-T CELL is a reengineered T cell that has been removed from the cancer patient, tweaked in the lab to recognize that patient’s cancer, and then injected back into the patient. Because each of these reengineered cells is a monstrous robocop-like assemblage of immune cell parts, researchers had given their invention the equally monstrous name of “Chimeric Antigen Receptor T cell” (in Greek mythology, the chimera is a patchwork monster combining aspects of a lion, goat, and serpent), but “CAR-T” sounds much better.</em>\r\n<em>CAR-T is often called the “most complex drug ever created,” but it is not really a drug in the traditional sense. Unlike an inert molecule introduced to the body for some temporary effect, CAR-T is alive. If it worked as designed, this “living drug” would go on living in Emily’s bloodstream like a cancer-killing superpower, providing her with a sort of immunity against her disease. And in the process, it would give humanity a revolutionary new weapon in the war on cancer.</em>\r\n<em>THE HUNDREDS OF millions of T cells that patrol our bloodstreams and lymph nodes are expert at recognizing sick body cells and killing them. And, although the idea was </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=173f7525b2&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>dismissed by most scientists</em></a><em> for the past 100 years, a handful of these T cells are predisposed to recognizing and killing cancer, too.</em>\r\n<em>So, why doesn’t our immune system do that job? You always know when you have a cold or the flu, but cancer arrives without so much as a sniffle. Why does it usually require a test to know that we have this deadly disease?</em>\r\n<em>The answer to that question came in a series of breakthrough discoveries of how cancer uses tricks to turn off, hide from, and overwhelm our immune response. Cancer shuts down T cells before they get a chance to call for reinforcements, reproduce into an overwhelming clone army, and do their job. But what if there was a way to overwhelm cancer instead, barraging it with huge numbers of immune cells capable of recognizing and killing it?”</em>', 'How Scientists Built A \'Living Drug\' to beat Cancer', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-scientists-built-a-living-drug-to-beat-cancer', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:30:00', '2019-11-06 09:30:00', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1611', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1612, 1, '2019-08-25 18:03:11', '2019-08-25 18:03:11', 'This piece in the WIRED is an adaptation from the book <em>The Breakthrough: Immunotherapy and the Race to Cure Cancer. </em>Quite a riveting story about how when the parents of a six year old offered a bunch of researchers a chance to save their daughter when doctors of conventional medicine had given up all hope. How these researchers had been trialling the cure for decades and finally came up with the ‘Breakthrough” goes to demonstrate the perseverance of scientists and more importantly the incremental contributions made by several scientists working on the solution across the world, which all added up to the eventual ‘discovery’.\r\n<em>“Emily Whitehead would be the world’s first kid to try an experimental cancer therapy, called CAR-T. Researchers were offering to reprogram her immune cells into a clone army of cancer-targeting serial killers. A CAR-T CELL is a reengineered T cell that has been removed from the cancer patient, tweaked in the lab to recognize that patient’s cancer, and then injected back into the patient. Because each of these reengineered cells is a monstrous robocop-like assemblage of immune cell parts, researchers had given their invention the equally monstrous name of “Chimeric Antigen Receptor T cell” (in Greek mythology, the chimera is a patchwork monster combining aspects of a lion, goat, and serpent), but “CAR-T” sounds much better.</em>\r\n<em>CAR-T is often called the “most complex drug ever created,” but it is not really a drug in the traditional sense. Unlike an inert molecule introduced to the body for some temporary effect, CAR-T is alive. If it worked as designed, this “living drug” would go on living in Emily’s bloodstream like a cancer-killing superpower, providing her with a sort of immunity against her disease. And in the process, it would give humanity a revolutionary new weapon in the war on cancer.</em>\r\n<em>THE HUNDREDS OF millions of T cells that patrol our bloodstreams and lymph nodes are expert at recognizing sick body cells and killing them. And, although the idea was </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=173f7525b2&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>dismissed by most scientists</em></a><em> for the past 100 years, a handful of these T cells are predisposed to recognizing and killing cancer, too.</em>\r\n<em>So, why doesn’t our immune system do that job? You always know when you have a cold or the flu, but cancer arrives without so much as a sniffle. Why does it usually require a test to know that we have this deadly disease?</em>\r\n<em>The answer to that question came in a series of breakthrough discoveries of how cancer uses tricks to turn off, hide from, and overwhelm our immune response. Cancer shuts down T cells before they get a chance to call for reinforcements, reproduce into an overwhelming clone army, and do their job. But what if there was a way to overwhelm cancer instead, barraging it with huge numbers of immune cells capable of recognizing and killing it?”</em>', 'How Scientists Built A \'Living Drug\' to beat Cancer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1611-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:03:11', '2019-08-25 18:03:11', '', 1611, 'http://marcellus.in/1611-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1613, 1, '2019-08-25 18:04:09', '2019-08-25 18:04:09', 'We would like to believe a lot of investing success can be attributed to behavioural aspects or psychology than subject matter expertise. Now there is a whole body of research emerging taking this to the next level in terms of assessment of the fund manager’s personality traits as a key input to manager selection, according to this piece in The Institutional Investor. The piece ends with this quote from a pension fund manager about what all he considers while selecting fund managers <em>“It may seem silly,” he says. “But in my experience, yes, if there’s a lot of red Ferraris in the parking lot — particularly if they’re leaving by 3 in the afternoon — it’s time to get off the bus.”</em> Like he says, it might seem too simplistic but one gets the drift. Indeed, we at Marcellus incorporate this line of thinking whilst assessing promoters (or CEOs) of the companies we would like to invest in. My colleague Saurabh Mukherjea has written extensively on the behavioural aspect of investing – whether in the context of capital allocation by a CEO or a business owner or a fund manager or indeed our clients when they invest with us. You can read two of those pieces <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5e0ec6e753&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3acdf75223&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. As fund manager evaluation in future will likely incorporate such behavioural aspects, we at Marcellus look forward to undergoing a slew of psychometric tests from our prospective clients.\r\n<em>“Should investors care about a fund manager’s relationship status? What kind of car they drive? Ask them if they’ve won any poker games lately? Research points to yes. A recent outpouring of academic papers links the investment performance of professional fund managers to their characteristics as individuals — how they grew up, their personality traits, even their testosterone levels. Studies have explored the impact of everything from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00a1efc685&amp;e=5648501957\">where investors went to school</a> to <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3f8224f4d&amp;e=5648501957\">whether they lost a parent in childhood.</a> The studies have attracted widespread attention from financial and mainstream media outlets — Institutional Investor included. You’ve probably seen the headlines: “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ea1d6cf2de&amp;e=5648501957\">A Hedge Fund Manager Who Drives a Ferrari Will Probably Underperform</a>.” “‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d908eed27&amp;e=5648501957\">Psychopath’ Hedge Fund Managers Make Less Money Than Nice Guys</a>.” “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=315d7525d1&amp;e=5648501957\">Why ‘Alpha Males’ Make Bad Hedge Fund Managers</a>.” The <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fbea76228b&amp;e=5648501957\">list</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00d774af2d&amp;e=5648501957\">goes</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=803d136fb0&amp;e=5648501957\">on</a>.</em>\r\n<em>….One such paper arose after a hedge fund of funds sought to quantify the relationship between personality traits and performance. The firm, San Francisco-based TeamCo Advisers, approached psychology professor Dacher Keltner and psychology PhD Leanne ten Brinke, now an assistant professor at the University of Denver.</em>\r\n<em>Ten Brinke remembers having “no idea what a hedge fund was.” Her prior research had focused on the psychopathic tendencies of criminals. At that time, she was conducting personality assessments and using nonverbal cues to identify psychopathic and other personality traits. TeamCo Advisers wanted to take that skill set and apply it to hedge fund manager selection. “They were interested in if you could find a personality trait that led to greater returns,” says ten Brinke. “But they were particularly interested in avoiding blowups — Bernie Madoff types who are just ripping people off.” </em>\r\n<em>The resulting collaboration was a study focused on what psychologists refer to as the dark triad: narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. By analyzing videotaped interviews of 101 hedge fund managers, ten Brinke and Keltner spotted these traits and examined whether there was any distinguishable link to investment performance.</em>\r\n<em>The results were definitive: Hedge fund managers who most exhibited the dark triad characteristics trailed the overall group by almost a full percentage point each year in investment returns annualized from 2005 to 2015. When their performance was adjusted for risk, the gap grew even wider.”</em>', 'Sports Cars, Psychopaths, and Testosterone: Inside the New Frontier of Fund Manager Research', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sports-cars-psychopaths-and-testosterone-inside-the-new-frontier-of-fund-manager-research', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:25:23', '2019-11-06 09:25:23', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1613', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1614, 1, '2019-08-25 18:04:09', '2019-08-25 18:04:09', 'We would like to believe a lot of investing success can be attributed to behavioural aspects or psychology than subject matter expertise. Now there is a whole body of research emerging taking this to the next level in terms of assessment of the fund manager’s personality traits as a key input to manager selection, according to this piece in The Institutional Investor. The piece ends with this quote from a pension fund manager about what all he considers while selecting fund managers <em>“It may seem silly,” he says. “But in my experience, yes, if there’s a lot of red Ferraris in the parking lot — particularly if they’re leaving by 3 in the afternoon — it’s time to get off the bus.”</em> Like he says, it might seem too simplistic but one gets the drift. Indeed, we at Marcellus incorporate this line of thinking whilst assessing promoters (or CEOs) of the companies we would like to invest in. My colleague Saurabh Mukherjea has written extensively on the behavioural aspect of investing – whether in the context of capital allocation by a CEO or a business owner or a fund manager or indeed our clients when they invest with us. You can read two of those pieces <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5e0ec6e753&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3acdf75223&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. As fund manager evaluation in future will likely incorporate such behavioural aspects, we at Marcellus look forward to undergoing a slew of psychometric tests from our prospective clients.\r\n<em>“Should investors care about a fund manager’s relationship status? What kind of car they drive? Ask them if they’ve won any poker games lately? Research points to yes. A recent outpouring of academic papers links the investment performance of professional fund managers to their characteristics as individuals — how they grew up, their personality traits, even their testosterone levels. Studies have explored the impact of everything from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00a1efc685&amp;e=5648501957\">where investors went to school</a> to <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3f8224f4d&amp;e=5648501957\">whether they lost a parent in childhood.</a> The studies have attracted widespread attention from financial and mainstream media outlets — Institutional Investor included. You’ve probably seen the headlines: “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ea1d6cf2de&amp;e=5648501957\">A Hedge Fund Manager Who Drives a Ferrari Will Probably Underperform</a>.” “‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d908eed27&amp;e=5648501957\">Psychopath’ Hedge Fund Managers Make Less Money Than Nice Guys</a>.” “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=315d7525d1&amp;e=5648501957\">Why ‘Alpha Males’ Make Bad Hedge Fund Managers</a>.” The <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fbea76228b&amp;e=5648501957\">list</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00d774af2d&amp;e=5648501957\">goes</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=803d136fb0&amp;e=5648501957\">on</a>.</em>\r\n<em>….One such paper arose after a hedge fund of funds sought to quantify the relationship between personality traits and performance. The firm, San Francisco-based TeamCo Advisers, approached psychology professor Dacher Keltner and psychology PhD Leanne ten Brinke, now an assistant professor at the University of Denver.</em>\r\n<em>Ten Brinke remembers having “no idea what a hedge fund was.” Her prior research had focused on the psychopathic tendencies of criminals. At that time, she was conducting personality assessments and using nonverbal cues to identify psychopathic and other personality traits. TeamCo Advisers wanted to take that skill set and apply it to hedge fund manager selection. “They were interested in if you could find a personality trait that led to greater returns,” says ten Brinke. “But they were particularly interested in avoiding blowups — Bernie Madoff types who are just ripping people off.” </em>\r\n<em>The resulting collaboration was a study focused on what psychologists refer to as the dark triad: narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. By analyzing videotaped interviews of 101 hedge fund managers, ten Brinke and Keltner spotted these traits and examined whether there was any distinguishable link to investment performance.</em>\r\n<em>The results were definitive: Hedge fund managers who most exhibited the dark triad characteristics trailed the overall group by almost a full percentage point each year in investment returns annualized from 2005 to 2015. When their performance was adjusted for risk, the gap grew even wider.”</em>', 'Sports Cars, Psychopaths, and Testosterone: Inside the New Frontier of Fund Manager Research', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1613-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:04:09', '2019-08-25 18:04:09', '', 1613, 'http://marcellus.in/1613-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1615, 1, '2019-08-25 18:07:28', '2019-08-25 18:07:28', 'Barry Ritholtz has written this article in the context of the US Financial Services industry but he might as well be talking about India given that India’s rating agencies have covered themselves with as much muck over the past four years as the US rating agencies did in the run-up to the Lehman crisis. For those of us who lived through the Lehman crisis, the sins of the rating agencies are a story we have heard before: <em>“Moody’s and S&amp;P (Fitch was a relatively small player) slapped investment grade ratings on securities backed by junk subprime loans because they were literally paid to do so by debt issuers. Issuers shopped for ratings -- if Moody’s refused to provide a desired grade, then S&amp;P would (and vice versa). When it all went south, the debt raters made feeble attempts to claim their ratings were \"opinions,\" or protected political speech under the First Amendment. These arguments failed, eventually leading to fines for their malfeasance. S&amp;P paid $1.5 billion to settle with the U.S. and individual states; Moody’s paid a much smaller fine.”</em>\r\nSo what can be done to fix the rating agencies especially since 11 years on from Lehman the agencies seem to be riddled with the same conflicts of interest that destroyed the fabric of the financial system 11 years ago? Ritholtz has a few suggestions that regulators should consider:\r\n1.       <strong>Sell ratings to bond buyers, not bond issuers:</strong> <em>“…During the 19th century, investors in railroads paid for information on the quality of the bonds they were buying, which is how S&amp;P and Moody\'s got their start. In the 1970s, the raters began the practice of charging issuers for their services, displacing the subscriber-pays model. That the investor-pays model once prevailed suggests that under the right conditions and with the right incentives it could work again.”</em>\r\n2.       <strong>Assign and rotate rating companies randomly:</strong> <em>“After the many accounting scandal of the early 2000s…a number of reforms were made to the accounting industry. Included in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was the establishment of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB. This established new standards for independence, created audit rules and mandated quality control. Perhaps most importantly, it required whoever the lead partner was on an audit to rotate off that project every five years, reducing the tendency of those who are supposed to work at arm\'s length from getting too cozy….The incentive to cheat was replaced with a high probability of getting caught. The result has been a dearth of the kind of accounting frauds that were so common in the late 1990s and 2000s.” </em>\r\n3.       <strong>Eliminate the government stamp of approval:</strong> <em>“The credit raters were granted special government dispensations in 1975, setting them up as the official arbiters of corporate credit quality. This unique status created a moral hazard, with raters facing few consequences for their actions; it is also what enabled the structural problem in the first place. Compare this situation to the equity side: the dot-com implosion taught stock buyers not to rely on Wall Street analyst ratings, which exist (mostly) for the benefit of investment bankers, not investors.”</em>\r\nIronically, although India has made more progress than America in bringing the auditors to heel (through mandatory rotation of auditors and through the creation of an independent regulator for the audit profession), India has done as little as America to make the credit rating agencies more accountable. Ritholtz’s ideas therefore have as much relevance in India as in the US.', 'The Bond Raters Still Need to Be Fixed', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-bond-raters-still-need-to-be-fixed', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:23:56', '2019-11-06 09:23:56', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1615', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1616, 1, '2019-08-25 18:07:28', '2019-08-25 18:07:28', 'Barry Ritholtz has written this article in the context of the US Financial Services industry but he might as well be talking about India given that India’s rating agencies have covered themselves with as much muck over the past four years as the US rating agencies did in the run-up to the Lehman crisis. For those of us who lived through the Lehman crisis, the sins of the rating agencies are a story we have heard before: <em>“Moody’s and S&amp;P (Fitch was a relatively small player) slapped investment grade ratings on securities backed by junk subprime loans because they were literally paid to do so by debt issuers. Issuers shopped for ratings -- if Moody’s refused to provide a desired grade, then S&amp;P would (and vice versa). When it all went south, the debt raters made feeble attempts to claim their ratings were \"opinions,\" or protected political speech under the First Amendment. These arguments failed, eventually leading to fines for their malfeasance. S&amp;P paid $1.5 billion to settle with the U.S. and individual states; Moody’s paid a much smaller fine.”</em>\r\nSo what can be done to fix the rating agencies especially since 11 years on from Lehman the agencies seem to be riddled with the same conflicts of interest that destroyed the fabric of the financial system 11 years ago? Ritholtz has a few suggestions that regulators should consider:\r\n1.       <strong>Sell ratings to bond buyers, not bond issuers:</strong> <em>“…During the 19th century, investors in railroads paid for information on the quality of the bonds they were buying, which is how S&amp;P and Moody\'s got their start. In the 1970s, the raters began the practice of charging issuers for their services, displacing the subscriber-pays model. That the investor-pays model once prevailed suggests that under the right conditions and with the right incentives it could work again.”</em>\r\n2.       <strong>Assign and rotate rating companies randomly:</strong> <em>“After the many accounting scandal of the early 2000s…a number of reforms were made to the accounting industry. Included in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was the establishment of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB. This established new standards for independence, created audit rules and mandated quality control. Perhaps most importantly, it required whoever the lead partner was on an audit to rotate off that project every five years, reducing the tendency of those who are supposed to work at arm\'s length from getting too cozy….The incentive to cheat was replaced with a high probability of getting caught. The result has been a dearth of the kind of accounting frauds that were so common in the late 1990s and 2000s.” </em>\r\n3.       <strong>Eliminate the government stamp of approval:</strong> <em>“The credit raters were granted special government dispensations in 1975, setting them up as the official arbiters of corporate credit quality. This unique status created a moral hazard, with raters facing few consequences for their actions; it is also what enabled the structural problem in the first place. Compare this situation to the equity side: the dot-com implosion taught stock buyers not to rely on Wall Street analyst ratings, which exist (mostly) for the benefit of investment bankers, not investors.”</em>\r\nIronically, although India has made more progress than America in bringing the auditors to heel (through mandatory rotation of auditors and through the creation of an independent regulator for the audit profession), India has done as little as America to make the credit rating agencies more accountable. Ritholtz’s ideas therefore have as much relevance in India as in the US.', 'The Bond Raters Still Need to Be Fixed', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1615-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:07:28', '2019-08-25 18:07:28', '', 1615, 'http://marcellus.in/1615-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1617, 1, '2019-08-25 18:08:17', '2019-08-25 18:08:17', 'For most physics students, the introduction of Richard Feynman’s lectures would have made learning a joyful adventure by the sheer simplicity of Feynman’s teachings. In this article, Morgan Housel references Feynman to drive home the point that when it comes to advice, especially financial advice, simplicity struggles. We at Marcellus can relate to this as we reflect on our sales pitches. The selling pitch of buying high quality companies and holding them for long periods of time somehow draws a yawning response from prospective clients. On the contrary there are easy takers for a complex derivative structure which the client can’t comprehend. As Housel quotes computer scientist Edsger Dijkstra: <em>“Simplicity is the hallmark of truth— we should know better, but complexity continues to have a morbid attraction. When you give for an academic audience a lecture that is crystal clear from alpha to omega, your audience feels cheated and leaves the lecture hall commenting to each other: “That was rather trivial, wasn’t it? The sore truth is that complexity sells better.”</em>\r\nHousel explains four reasons why complexity sells:\r\n<em><strong>1. Simplicity feels like an easy walk. Complexity feels like mental CrossFit.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If the reps don’t hurt when you’re exercising, you’re not really exercising. Pain is the sign of progress that tells you you’re paying the unavoidable cost of admission. Short and simple communication is different. Richard Feynman and Stephen Hawking could teach math with simple language that didn’t hurt your head, not because they dumbed down the topics but because they knew how to get from A to Z in as few steps as possible. An effective rule of thumb doesn’t bypass complexity; It wraps things you don’t understand into things you do, like a baseball player who – by keeping <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=96f8e76a8a&amp;e=5648501957\">a ball level in his gaze</a> – knows where the ball will land as well as a physicist calculating the ball’s flight with precision.</em>\r\n<em>The problem with simplicity is that the reps don’t hurt, so you don’t feel like you’re getting a mental workout. It can create a preference for laborious learning that students are actually OK with because it feels like a cognitive bench press, with all the assumed benefits.</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Length is often the only thing that can signal effort and thoughtfulness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>The U.S. constitution is 7,591 words. A typical business management book covering a single topic is perhaps 250 pages, or something like 65,000 words.</em>\r\n<em>The funny thing is the average reader does not come close to finishing most books they buy. Even among bestsellers, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1ff18cf07&amp;e=5648501957\">average readers quit after a few dozen pages</a>. Length, then, has to serve a purpose other than providing more material. My theory is that length indicates the author has spent more time thinking about a topic than you have, which can be the only data point signaling they might have insight you don’t. It doesn’t mean their thinking is right. And you may get enough of their thinking after two chapters. But the purpose of chapters 3-16 is often to show the author has done so much work that chapters 1 and 2 might have some insight. Same for research reports and white papers.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Things you don’t understand create a mystique around people who do.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If you say something I didn’t know but can understand I might think you’re smart. If you say something I can’t understand I might think you have an ability to think about a topic in ways I can’t, which is a whole different species of admiration. When you understand things I don’t I have a hard time judging the limits of your knowledge in that field, which makes me more prone to taking your views at face value.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>In most fields a handful of variables <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=76b547e21d&amp;e=5648501957\">dictate the majority</a> of outcomes. But only paying attention to those few variables can feel like you’re leaving too much of the outcome to fate. The more knobs you can fiddle with – the 100-tab spreadsheet, or the Big Data analysis – the more control you feel you have over the situation, if only because the impression of knowledge increases. The flip side is that only paying attention to a few variables while ignoring the majority of others can make you look ignorant. If a client says, “What about this, what’s happening here?” and you respond, “Oh, I have no idea, I don’t even look at that,” the odds that you’ll sound uninformed are greater than the odds you’ll sound like you’ve mastered simplicity.</em>', 'Why Complexity Sells', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-complexity-sells', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:19:22', '2019-11-06 09:19:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1617', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1618, 1, '2019-08-25 18:08:17', '2019-08-25 18:08:17', 'For most physics students, the introduction of Richard Feynman’s lectures would have made learning a joyful adventure by the sheer simplicity of Feynman’s teachings. In this article, Morgan Housel references Feynman to drive home the point that when it comes to advice, especially financial advice, simplicity struggles. We at Marcellus can relate to this as we reflect on our sales pitches. The selling pitch of buying high quality companies and holding them for long periods of time somehow draws a yawning response from prospective clients. On the contrary there are easy takers for a complex derivative structure which the client can’t comprehend. As Housel quotes computer scientist Edsger Dijkstra: <em>“Simplicity is the hallmark of truth— we should know better, but complexity continues to have a morbid attraction. When you give for an academic audience a lecture that is crystal clear from alpha to omega, your audience feels cheated and leaves the lecture hall commenting to each other: “That was rather trivial, wasn’t it? The sore truth is that complexity sells better.”</em>\r\nHousel explains four reasons why complexity sells:\r\n<em><strong>1. Simplicity feels like an easy walk. Complexity feels like mental CrossFit.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If the reps don’t hurt when you’re exercising, you’re not really exercising. Pain is the sign of progress that tells you you’re paying the unavoidable cost of admission. Short and simple communication is different. Richard Feynman and Stephen Hawking could teach math with simple language that didn’t hurt your head, not because they dumbed down the topics but because they knew how to get from A to Z in as few steps as possible. An effective rule of thumb doesn’t bypass complexity; It wraps things you don’t understand into things you do, like a baseball player who – by keeping <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=96f8e76a8a&amp;e=5648501957\">a ball level in his gaze</a> – knows where the ball will land as well as a physicist calculating the ball’s flight with precision.</em>\r\n<em>The problem with simplicity is that the reps don’t hurt, so you don’t feel like you’re getting a mental workout. It can create a preference for laborious learning that students are actually OK with because it feels like a cognitive bench press, with all the assumed benefits.</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Length is often the only thing that can signal effort and thoughtfulness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>The U.S. constitution is 7,591 words. A typical business management book covering a single topic is perhaps 250 pages, or something like 65,000 words.</em>\r\n<em>The funny thing is the average reader does not come close to finishing most books they buy. Even among bestsellers, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1ff18cf07&amp;e=5648501957\">average readers quit after a few dozen pages</a>. Length, then, has to serve a purpose other than providing more material. My theory is that length indicates the author has spent more time thinking about a topic than you have, which can be the only data point signaling they might have insight you don’t. It doesn’t mean their thinking is right. And you may get enough of their thinking after two chapters. But the purpose of chapters 3-16 is often to show the author has done so much work that chapters 1 and 2 might have some insight. Same for research reports and white papers.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Things you don’t understand create a mystique around people who do.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If you say something I didn’t know but can understand I might think you’re smart. If you say something I can’t understand I might think you have an ability to think about a topic in ways I can’t, which is a whole different species of admiration. When you understand things I don’t I have a hard time judging the limits of your knowledge in that field, which makes me more prone to taking your views at face value.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>In most fields a handful of variables <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=76b547e21d&amp;e=5648501957\">dictate the majority</a> of outcomes. But only paying attention to those few variables can feel like you’re leaving too much of the outcome to fate. The more knobs you can fiddle with – the 100-tab spreadsheet, or the Big Data analysis – the more control you feel you have over the situation, if only because the impression of knowledge increases. The flip side is that only paying attention to a few variables while ignoring the majority of others can make you look ignorant. If a client says, “What about this, what’s happening here?” and you respond, “Oh, I have no idea, I don’t even look at that,” the odds that you’ll sound uninformed are greater than the odds you’ll sound like you’ve mastered simplicity.</em>', 'Why Complexity Sells', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1617-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:08:17', '2019-08-25 18:08:17', '', 1617, 'http://marcellus.in/1617-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1619, 1, '2019-08-25 18:09:38', '2019-08-25 18:09:38', 'Central banks’ influence on the global economy has been on the rise over the past few decades with ultra-low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing. Whilst they can be credited to have pulled financial markets up from the crises, their impact on the real economy remains a matter of debate. Growth is still amiss in Europe and Japan whilst the Fed is frustratingly short of its inflation target. Closer home too, the RBI’s own inflation forecasting hasn’t been particularly accurate, thereby resulting in high real interest rates. It is this aspect of central bankers’ ability to forecast macro-economic variables or the lack thereof and hence the efficacy of their policies is the main point of Claire Jones’ Alphaville piece. In this midst, she points out to the statement of Mr Chetan Ghate, one of the members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – an excerpt of which goes like “I will carefully watch the evolving growth-inflation risk picture. Estimates of economic growth in India have unfortunately been subject to a fair degree of floccinaucinihilipilification”. Claire explains <em>“While the choice of word is smug, its meaning -- <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=122e9d1cfd&amp;e=5648501957\">that trying to put a firm estimate on certain things is essentially worthless</a> -- harks back to an era of the more humble central banker.</em>\r\n<em>We’re not there yet, though. Following this admission of fallibility, Mr Ghate immediately reverted back to type. The next words out of his mouth: “Notwithstanding this, growth is likely to pick up from Q2-Q3: 2019-2020.”</em>', 'On floccinaucinihilipilification', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'on-floccinaucinihilipilification', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:15:53', '2019-11-06 09:15:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1619', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1620, 1, '2019-08-25 18:09:38', '2019-08-25 18:09:38', 'Central banks’ influence on the global economy has been on the rise over the past few decades with ultra-low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing. Whilst they can be credited to have pulled financial markets up from the crises, their impact on the real economy remains a matter of debate. Growth is still amiss in Europe and Japan whilst the Fed is frustratingly short of its inflation target. Closer home too, the RBI’s own inflation forecasting hasn’t been particularly accurate, thereby resulting in high real interest rates. It is this aspect of central bankers’ ability to forecast macro-economic variables or the lack thereof and hence the efficacy of their policies is the main point of Claire Jones’ Alphaville piece. In this midst, she points out to the statement of Mr Chetan Ghate, one of the members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – an excerpt of which goes like “I will carefully watch the evolving growth-inflation risk picture. Estimates of economic growth in India have unfortunately been subject to a fair degree of floccinaucinihilipilification”. Claire explains <em>“While the choice of word is smug, its meaning -- <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=122e9d1cfd&amp;e=5648501957\">that trying to put a firm estimate on certain things is essentially worthless</a> -- harks back to an era of the more humble central banker.</em>\r\n<em>We’re not there yet, though. Following this admission of fallibility, Mr Ghate immediately reverted back to type. The next words out of his mouth: “Notwithstanding this, growth is likely to pick up from Q2-Q3: 2019-2020.”</em>', 'On floccinaucinihilipilification', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1619-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-25 18:09:38', '2019-08-25 18:09:38', '', 1619, 'http://marcellus.in/1619-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2199, 1, '2019-11-06 09:06:39', '2019-11-06 09:06:39', 'Last three years have seen Elon Musk’s public perception slide from an iconoclast solving the world’s problems to borderline unhinged as his critics rise in number and intensity. Indeed, there is a common hashtag his critics use on Twitter - #TSLAQ with the first four letters being Tesla’s ticker symbol and the Q at the end which is normally used for companies delisted for bankruptcy, suggesting an eventual end game for Tesla and Musk. So, what changed for the boy wonder bordering genius who could do no wrong – from Paypal, Model S the wonder car, sending rockets to space and back to tweeting price sensitive information, smoking pot on TV, unfair corporate governance practices? Bethany Mclean looks at the events that unfolded at Solarcity which Musk eventually got Tesla to bail out in a controversial deal and suggests that could eventually go down as the beginning of the end for Musk.\r\n<em>“SolarCity was founded by two of Musk’s cousins, Lyndon and Peter Rive, who grew up with him in South Africa. Musk, who put in $10 million, was the largest shareholder and chairman of the board. The initial idea, the Rives explained, was not to be a manufacturer but rather to control the entire consumer experience of going solar, from sale to installation, thereby driving down costs. For a time, SolarCity was a hot stock, growing almost tenfold from its public offering in 2012 to its peak in early 2014.</em>\r\n<em>As is common with Musk’s ventures, SolarCity professed to be focused on changing the world. “Everything was very motivational,” says a former executive. Some workers, taking the ethos to heart, sported SolarCity tattoos.</em>\r\n<em>But the initial success of the company’s stock masked some difficult realities. SolarCity’s business model was to front the costs of installing solar panels and allow homeowners to pay over time, which created a constant need for cash. That required raising money from outside investors, often big banks, who were then entitled to the first chunk of the payments homeowners made—leaving SolarCity in a never-ending scramble to raise more debt. The real engineering that took place at SolarCity, in short, was financial, not environmental.</em>\r\n<em>On the consumer side, SolarCity was plagued by complaints about misleading sales tactics and shoddy installations. As the problems mounted, some workers began to feel manipulated by the company’s talk about being a force for good in the world. “I turned a blind eye to a lot of the silliness because of the idealism,” says one former senior employee. “I don’t know when the Rubicon was crossed, but there were micro-crossings every day.”</em>\r\n<em>…In reality, the situation was even uglier than outsiders knew. As SolarCity struggled to raise money from institutional investors, it began offering individuals a chance to buy what it called Solar Bonds. (“Now you can get paid while driving the solar revolution,” the marketing material said.) But there were few takers—so other parts of the Musk empire took up the slack. According to the shareholder lawsuit, SpaceX acquired $255 million of the bonds. Musk himself bought $75 million of them, and the Rives acquired another $38 million. To raise the cash, Musk borrowed against both Tesla and SolarCity stock, increasing his personal credit lines from $85 million to $475 million. He also used his own reputation to shore up the stock: In February 2016, when SolarCity stock plunged to its lowest level in three years, Musk bought $10 million in shares. A week later, when the news became public, the stock soared by almost 25 percent.</em>\r\n<em>At the same time, according to the shareholder lawsuit against Tesla, the company faced “significant liquidity concerns”—meaning it was running out of money. An accounting inquiry from the SEC noted that SolarCity was burning through cash—$659 million in the first quarter of 2016 alone. That February, at a Tesla board meeting, Musk proposed a solution: Tesla, he said, should acquire SolarCity.</em>\r\n<em>It was a hopelessly conflicted situation. Musk owned more than 20 percent of both SolarCity and Tesla. His brother, Kimbal, served on both boards, as did several investors, including Antonio Gracias, a close friend of Musk’s. As a judge in the shareholder lawsuit ruled, it is “reasonably conceivable” that Musk effectively controlled the Tesla board when he pushed it to acquire SolarCity. </em>\r\n<em>…three years after Tesla bought SolarCity, there are serious doubts as to whether the plant will ever fulfill its promises. The website CleanTechnica, which is mostly supportive of Musk, calls SolarCity “a disaster waiting to happen.” A potentially costly lawsuit alleges that Tesla acquired SolarCity at the expense of its own shareholders. And former employees want to know what happened to the massive subsidy Tesla received. “New York State taxpayers deserved more from a $750 million investment,” a laid-off employee named Dale Witherell wrote to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. “Tesla has done a tremendous job providing smoke and mirrors and empty promises to the area.”</em>\r\n<em>There are growing questions about SolarCity’s product, too. Last week, Walmart sued Tesla for breach of contract due to “years of gross negligence,” claiming that solar panels installed at seven of its stores went up in flames, causing millions of dollars in damage. The lawsuit, citing Tesla’s “utter incompetence,” seeks to have the company remove rooftop panels it installed at more than 240 Walmart stores.</em>\r\n<em>The controversy over SolarCity, which has dovetailed with questions about Musk’s mountain of debt and profit shortfalls, offers a window into the mind-set of America’s most outlandish and unpredictable CEO. Musk’s believers argue that the details of his ventures don’t matter: It’s the grand vision that counts. “The guy has a will to make stuff happen that is extraordinary,” says someone who worked closely with Musk. “He willed Tesla to happen. And in willing a reality into existence, he might not stick to the facts.” But in the case of SolarCity, Musk’s penchant for making promises he can’t deliver on turned out to matter a great deal—and could even pose a threat to his entire empire.”</em>', '\"He\'s Full Of Shit\": How Elon Musk Fooled Investors, Bilked Taxpayers, And Gambled Tesla To Save Solarcity', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1647-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:06:39', '2019-11-06 09:06:39', '', 1647, 'https://marcellus.in/1647-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1623, 1, '2019-08-26 11:39:29', '2019-08-26 11:39:29', 'Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry\'s standard dummy text ever since the 1500s, when an unknown printer took a galley of type and scrambled it to make a type specimen book. It has survived not only five centuries, but also the leap into electronic typesetting, remaining essentially unchanged. It was popularised in the 1960s with the release of Letraset sheets containing Lorem Ipsum passages, and more recently with desktop publishing software like Aldus PageMaker including versions of Lorem Ipsum.', 'Books', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '127-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 11:39:29', '2019-08-26 11:39:29', '', 127, 'http://marcellus.in/127-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1628, 1, '2019-08-26 11:58:57', '2019-08-26 11:58:57', '<strong>Coffee Can Investing </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat if there really were a way to realize not 10, not even 15, but 20% compound annual growth rate on your investments? In his bestseller Coffee Can Investing, Saurubh Mukherjea walks you through this unique way of multiplying your capital as much as five times while assuming only half the market risk.\r\n\r\n<strong>The Unusual Billionaires </strong>\r\n\r\nEver wondered the secret elixir behind the making of a multi-billion dollar corporation? What common factor is responsible for the continued success of unusual billionaires such as Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Marico, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, and Berger Paints? Saurabh Mukherjea lifts the lid on these questions in his bestseller - The Unusual Billionaires.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>Gurus of Chaos </strong>\r\n\r\nEverything in life comes with a price tag. So what exactly is the cost of becoming a successful investor? Is it merely a gift from the Almighty or is it a matter of deliberate and consistent effort? The Indian stock market favours those who take not just the thrill but also the risks involved in becoming successful long-term investors, in their stride. Accompany Saurabh Mukherjea in Gurus of Chaos, as he dives into the stories of seven such individuals who went from amateurs to successful investors and gather some invaluable pearls of investment wisdom along the way.', 'Books', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '127-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 11:58:57', '2019-08-26 11:58:57', '', 127, 'http://marcellus.in/127-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1627, 1, '2019-08-26 11:58:31', '2019-08-26 11:58:31', '<strong>Coffee Can Investing </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat if there really were a way to realize not 10, not even 15, but 20% compound annual growth rate on your investments? In his bestseller <strong>Coffee Can Investing</strong>, Saurubh Mukherjea walks you through this unique way of multiplying your capital as much as five times while assuming only half the market risk.\r\n\r\n<strong>The Unusual Billionaires </strong>\r\n\r\nEver wondered the secret elixir behind the making of a multi-billion dollar corporation? What common factor is responsible for the continued success of <strong>unusual billionaires</strong> such as Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Marico, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, and Berger Paints? Saurabh Mukherjea lifts the lid on these questions in his bestseller - The Unusual Billionaires.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>Gurus of Chaos </strong>\r\n\r\nEverything in life comes with a price tag. So what exactly is the cost of becoming a successful investor? Is it merely a gift from the Almighty or is it a matter of deliberate and consistent effort? The Indian stock market favours those who take not just the thrill but also the risks involved in becoming successful long-term investors, in their stride. Accompany Saurabh Mukherjea in <strong>Gurus of Chaos</strong>, as he dives into the stories of seven such individuals who went from amateurs to successful investors and gather some invaluable pearls of investment wisdom along the way.', 'Books', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '127-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 11:58:31', '2019-08-26 11:58:31', '', 127, 'http://marcellus.in/127-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1629, 1, '2019-08-26 14:27:51', '2019-08-26 14:27:51', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 14:27:51', '2019-08-26 14:27:51', '', 15, 'http://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1630, 1, '2019-08-26 14:29:06', '2019-08-26 14:29:06', '<strong>Coffee Can Investing </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat if there really were a way to realize not 10, not even 15, but 20% compound annual growth rate on your investments? What if there was a way to grow your money four to five times whilst taking half the risk compared to the overall market? Best-selling author of <em>Gurus of Chaos</em> and <em>The Unusual Billionaires</em>, Saurabh Mukherjea puts his money where his mouth is. Saurabh follows the <strong>Coffee Can</strong> approach to high-quality, low-risk investing. In his bestseller <strong>Coffee Can Investing</strong>, Saurabh Mukherjea walks you through this unique way of multiplying your capital as much as five times while assuming only half the market risk.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>The Unusual Billionaires </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat makes a company truly outstanding? What is the secret sauce of delivering successful results over multiple decades? What is common to Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Marico, Berger Paints, Page Industries and Astral Poly?\r\n\r\nThey are Unusual Companies, built by Unusual Billionaires. This book tells the story of these seven companies, handpicked out of 5000 listed on the stock exchange. Built by visionary business leaders, they have delivered outstanding results for a decade and more.\r\n\r\nHow did these companies do it? Why couldn’t this be replicated by other companies?\r\nWhat are they doing differently?\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea, bestselling author of Gurus of Chaos, delivers an exceptional book with lessons to learn from these seven businesses. Mukherjea tells you why focusing on the core business is central to corporate success and how a promoter giving up control to the top management could be a boon. He also explains how investors can generate market-beating investment returns from identifying companies such as these using a simple set of metrics.\r\n\r\nThis book is mandatory reading for anyone who wants to understand how business is done successfully in India.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gurus of Chaos </strong>\r\n\r\nEverything in life comes with a price tag. So what exactly is the cost of becoming a successful investor? Is it merely a gift from the Almighty or is it a matter of deliberate and consistent effort? The Indian stock market favours those who take not just the thrill but also the risks involved in becoming successful long-term investors, in their stride. Accompany Saurabh Mukherjea in <strong>Gurus of Chaos</strong>, as he dives into the stories of seven such individuals who went from amateurs to successful investors and gather some invaluable pearls of investment wisdom along the way.', 'Books', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '127-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 14:29:06', '2019-08-26 14:29:06', '', 127, 'http://marcellus.in/127-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1631, 1, '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '<strong>Coffee Can Investing </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat if there really were a way to realize not 10, not even 15, but 20% compound annual growth rate on your investments? What if there was a way to grow your money four to five times whilst taking half the risk compared to the overall market? Best-selling author of <em>Gurus of Chaos</em> and <em>The Unusual Billionaires</em>, Saurabh Mukherjea puts his money where his mouth is. Saurabh follows the <strong>Coffee Can</strong> approach to high-quality, low-risk investing. In his bestseller <strong>Coffee Can Investing</strong>, Saurabh Mukherjea walks you through this unique way of multiplying your capital as much as five times while assuming only half the market risk.\r\n\r\n<strong>The Unusual Billionaires </strong>\r\n\r\nWhat makes a company truly outstanding? What is the secret sauce of delivering successful results over multiple decades? What is common to Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Marico, Berger Paints, Page Industries and Astral Poly?\r\n\r\nThey are Unusual Companies, built by Unusual Billionaires. This book tells the story of these seven companies, handpicked out of 5000 listed on the stock exchange. Built by visionary business leaders, they have delivered outstanding results for a decade and more.\r\n\r\nHow did these companies do it? Why couldn’t this be replicated by other companies?\r\nWhat are they doing differently?\r\n\r\nSaurabh Mukherjea, bestselling author of Gurus of Chaos, delivers an exceptional book with lessons to learn from these seven businesses. Mukherjea tells you why focusing on the core business is central to corporate success and how a promoter giving up control to the top management could be a boon. He also explains how investors can generate market-beating investment returns from identifying companies such as these using a simple set of metrics.\r\n\r\nThis book is mandatory reading for anyone who wants to understand how business is done successfully in India.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gurus of Chaos </strong>\r\n\r\nEverything in life comes with a price tag. So what exactly is the cost of becoming a successful investor? Is it merely a gift from the Almighty or is it a matter of deliberate and consistent effort? The Indian stock market favours those who take not just the thrill but also the risks involved in becoming successful long-term investors, in their stride. Accompany Saurabh Mukherjea in <strong>Gurus of Chaos</strong>, as he dives into the stories of seven such individuals who went from amateurs to successful investors and gather some invaluable pearls of investment wisdom along the way.', 'Books', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '127-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '2019-08-26 14:29:54', '', 127, 'http://marcellus.in/127-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1632, 1, '2019-08-27 12:20:05', '2019-08-27 12:20:05', '<em>Published on: 27 August, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>The Marwari community serves as a case study of durable and extensive collaboration <u>without</u> the need for a dominant leader to oversee such an endeavour. This sort of community-based collaboration provides richer insights than B-School paradigms into why some teams succeed and others fail.      </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“…read the sub-text and you will find that it spells ‘family’. It is the tie that has underpinned these businesses and is, often self-admittedly, the force that powers the risk-takers to…take risks….the Marwaris take the family in ‘family-owned business’ seriously. The most powerful industrialist will, even in the boardroom, rush to touch an elder relative’s feet as a greeting. Deferring to the older generation may be an archaic notion, but it is also a sign of respect that prevents the delicate balance of commerce and emotion from unravelling…” </em>–<strong> Abhilasha Khaitan in the 17<sup>th</sup> March 2014 edition of Forbes India </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Looking at collaboration from a different angle</strong>\r\nUsually when the question “Why do some teams collaborate whilst others don’t?” is asked, the reflexive answer which pops into most of our minds is “It must be because some teams have great leaders and other don’t.” This tendency to see the world through the prism of the individual, her abilities and her greatness is a by-product of the liberal values which have been hammered into our heads courtesy the westernised education systems which most of us (in India and elsewhere) have grown up in.\r\n\r\nHowever, seeing successful collaboration amongst teams, within companies/societies/countries, through the prism of leadership doesn’t get us very far. Yes, Abraham Lincoln was a great leader and he steered America through the dark days of the Civil War by building a brilliant team (as described memorably by Doris Kearns Goodwin in her book “Team of Rivals” and as enacted by Daniel Day Lewis in the Oscar winning movie). However, a lesser man than Lincoln would have struggled to hold together the team that Lincoln built. The average CEO is likely to be in deep trouble if he followed Lincoln and built a team of rivals.\r\n\r\nSo, what are the broader societal values/qualities which lead to some teams/companies/societies pulling together so cohesively so that end result is much greater than the sum of the parts? We look for answers in the rich literature that has sprung up around India’s small (there are fewer than 9 million Marwaris in India) but spectacularly successful Marwari business community (for a table of prominent listed Marwari firms, see <a href=\"http://www.forbesindia.com/article/marwari-power/top-100-listed-marwariowned-companies/37407/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">http://www.forbesindia.com/article/marwari-power/top-100-listed-marwariowned-companies/37407/1</a>).\r\n\r\n<strong>Understanding collaboration as an incentive co-ordination game</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>A clear common goal: </strong>Aristotle said, <em>“Man is by nature a social animal; an individual who is unsocial naturally and not accidentally is either beneath our notice or more than human. Society is something that precedes the individual.”</em> What Aristotle seems to be driving at is that most of are naturally wired to collaborate to achieve common goals. Our parents, our teachers, our colleagues, our mentors are all collaborators in ensuring that we get the best that they can give. The clearer the common goal, the more aligned it is to our interests, the easier it is for us to collaborate with those around us.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Alignment of interests: </strong>Over a hundred years ago, and long before agency theory was developed by academics in American business schools, the Great Marwari Firms which controlled trade in India’s Ganga-Yamuna flood plains had created a system of incentives which aligned their managers’ interests with the promoters’. <em>“Until the First World War, the Tarachand Ghanshyamdas office or gaddi at 18, Mullick Street in Calcutta took up an entire floor….There were 89 clerks working there. The head manager, Chhaganlal Bhavsinghka, was paid the princely sum of Rs 250 a month…Besides their pay, the managers often received a share in the profits of the firm. Jainarain Poddar, the chief manager, testified in court that he received Rs 2-3 lakhs annually over a period of several years, probably his share of profits. Other branch managers had variously defined share of profits. The exact arrangements differed from firm to firm.”</em> (Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg)</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Complimentarity of skillsets/interests: </strong>For a team to collaborate over an extended period of time to achieve a common goal there has to be avoidance of duplicating skillsets and responsibilities within the team. As soon as two people in a team realize that they have similar skillsets and responsibilities, politics kicks in to vitiate the atmosphere in the team. Long before HR managers had discovered ‘strength finders’ and skill maps, the Marwari Great Firms had figured out a unique solution to this problem: <em>“Managers and clerks in 1914 were mostly Shekhawati Aggarwals like the Poddars themselves….Some other Great Firms preferred Brahmin clerks to those from their own caste because it was perceived that they would be less likely to enter into competition with the original firm…The managers were regularly rotated and promoted. Harduttrai Prahladka joined the firm in 1860 in Calcutta and moved to the Mathura and Ramgarh branches, before leaving the firm. He returned as a branch manager in 1896.”</em>  (Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg)</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Monitoring of performance alongside rules which provide rewards &amp; punishments: </strong>In her book ‘Business Maharajas’ (2000), Gita Piramal uses a quote from the industrialist Shashi Ruia to explain why the late Aditya Birla was so successful: <em>“The key to Aditya Birla’s success in lay in his ability to organize himself and everyone around him.” </em>She then quotes Birla himself as saying<em> “What do you do to attract people? You give them tremendous powers and independence whilst monitoring their performance…Watch the financials, intervene if necessary, decide what next industry to get into, and which ones to withdraw from.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Willingness to look beyond personal financial incentives: </strong>Several centuries before the term ‘to network’ became a verb, the Marwari community had understood the power of co-operation across vast networks. In common with what the Jews did in Europe, the Marwaris therefore groomed their children in a specific way: <em>“Communities and castes with a history of involvement in business orient their children…to the trade, applaud success and know how to help each other in business. It is for this reason that the psychological make-up of those who run businesses in crowded markets is often marked by </em><strong><em>n-affiliation</em></strong><em> (a psychological orientation to work social networks, as politicians do) rather than </em><strong><em>n-achievement</em></strong><em> [refers to an individual\'s desire for significant accomplishment, mastering of skills, control, or high standards]. In a study of small engineering shop owners in Howrah, Raymond Owens demonstrated that members of the Mahasiya caste, who were prominent among owners of shops, had high n-affiliation since their business success was dependent on networking with caste fellows. The other entrepreneurs who came from a wide variety of castes, usually upper-class ‘service castes’ (Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Baidyas), had high n-achievement…Everything in the environment of these young Marwari men assisted them in being successful in business. They had a first-class support network constituted by their traditional family firms, business groups and the community. When they arrived in a new place, they found a basa, which provided boarding, lodging and society. Their friends and relatives were already in business and could help them.” </em>(Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg) [Square brackers and emphasis in bold is ours]</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe leader’s key roles in the context of a collaborative endeavour revolve around the creation, implementation and governance of the carrots &amp; sticks highlighted above. In her book ‘Business Maharajas’ (2000) Gita Piramal quotes the late Aditya Birla making a specific reference to Ratan Tata but one which is more generally applicable: <em>“If you don’t have systems, any individual will fail, and if you have systems but if don’t have a leader to lead the system, it will fail…I’m sure the Tatas have very good systems…I think there is a need to take some hard decisions which doesn’t come from guidance alone…Success is knocking confidence into Ratan.”</em>\r\n\r\nThat being said, complex collaborative endeavours cannot sustain just because of the leader. As elaborated above, the Marwaris are a supremely successful business community with proven ability to collaborate with each other within India and across national borders. And yet the Marwari community does NOT have a leader per se.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nThe most interesting aspect of meeting the management team of a company is NOT the meeting with the promoter. They are in fact the meetings, first with the layer of management which has direct contact with the promoter (usually the CEO and CFO) and then the meetings with the 4-5 people who report into the CEO. What we try to assess is whether the collective works together just because of the dominant leader or because they are bound together by a common purpose &amp; values, by complimentary skills and by a clearly laid out system of carrots &amp; sticks.\r\n\r\nLike most useful things in life, this construct is simple enough for us to explain it to you but as most company’s the world over have discovered, it is hard to successfully sustain this construct over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/blog/\">http://marcellus.in/blog</a>\r\n<em><a href=\"/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Collaboration Across Vast Networks: Lessons from the Marwaris', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'collaboration-across-vast-networks-lessons-from-the-marwaris', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:12:45', '2019-11-01 06:12:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1632', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1659, 1, '2019-09-05 15:30:14', '2019-09-05 15:30:14', '<em>Published on: 5 September, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Like investors, investigative journalists are paid to uncover undiscovered facts and perspectives. The best investigative journalists have the mental agility to deal with complexity &amp; detail alongside the courage to acknowledge unpleasant realities. We seek to learn from four outstanding investigative writers – Steve Coll, Robert Caro, Ram Guha and Manu Pillai.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Interviews: silence is the weapon, silence and people’s need to fill it…Two of fiction’s greatest interviewers – Georges Simeonon’s Inspector Maigret and John Le Carre’s George Smiley – have little devices they use to keep themselves from talking, and let silence do its work…When I’m waiting for the person I’m interviewing to break a silence by giving me a piece of information I want, I write “SU” (for Shut Up!) in my notebook. If anyone were to ever look through my notebooks, he would find a lot of ‘SUs’ there.” </em>–<strong> Robert Caro in ‘Working: Researching, Interviewing, Writing” (2019) </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Learning from the specialists in discovering hidden facts/perspectives </strong>\r\nAt Marcellus, we try to focus less on outcomes (eg. returns delivered, winning stocks) and more on process (eg. logical reasoning skills, capital allocation analysis, recruitment of smart &amp; ethical people). Of course, like most people, we too often get excited by positive outcomes as opposed to the effortful immersion in methodical research. Hence we keep looking for ways to make the immersion in process and in detail more interesting. This note describes some of our efforts in this regard.\r\n\r\nAs investors we get paid to either see the world in ways others cannot see and/or for uncovering data/facts that others haven’t discovered. Another profession which gets paid for much the same things is investigative journalism. So who are the leading investigate journalists/researchers of our time and what can we learn from them? In this note, we focus on four outstanding researchers - Robert Caro, Steve Coll, Ram Guha and Manu Pillai – whose work is easily accessible to us. For those who haven’t come across their work, here are short bios on these four writers:\r\n\r\n<strong>Robert Caro:</strong> Two time Pullitzer Prize winner, Robert Caro, is famous for his biographies of Robert Moses - the powerful but racist civil servant who built most of the expressways, bridges and parks around New York City - and former US President Lyndon Johnson. Caro began his career as a newspaper journalist but the seven years which took him to write his book on Robert Moses – a book which won him his first Pullitzer - resulted in him becoming a full time historian. Such is Caro’s reputation for exhaustive research and detail, he is sometimes invoked by reviewers of other writers who are called \"Caro-esque\" for their own extensive research.\r\n\r\n<strong>Steve Coll:</strong> Another Two time Pullitzer Prize winner, Steve Coll is currently the dean of Columbia University’s famous School of Journalism. The first Steve Coll book we read was ‘On the Grand Trunk Road’ (1994), a book written whilst Coll was living in India as the Washington Post’s South Asia Bureau Chief. Coll then cemented his legendary status in a series of remarkably well researched books on how the SEC functions, how the CIA functions, how Al-Qaeda is run and how Pakistan’s ISI makes a fool out of everybody else. So deep is Coll’s knowledge that the US Government turns to him for guidance on some of these matters. If you are interested in the Al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s ISI, you have to read Coll’s ‘Ghosts Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afgahnistan and Bin Laden…’ (2004) and ‘Directorate S: the CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afgahnistan and Pakistan’ (2018).\r\n\r\n<strong>Ramachandra Guha:</strong> A versatile intellectual, Ram Guha is arguably contemporary India’s most famous historian. He’s best known for his epic trilogy of books which capture India’s evolution over the past 150 years – ‘India After Gandhi’ (2007), ‘Gandhi Before India’ (2013) and ‘Gandhi: The Years That Changed the World’ (2018). His research into the social history of Indian cricket culminated in an award winning book, ‘A Corner of a Foreign Field: The Indian history of a British Sport’ (2002).\r\n\r\n<strong>Manu Pillai:</strong> By far the youngest of this quartet of great writers, Manu Pillai is arguably the brightest young historian in India. Four years ago the BBC appointed him as a research assistant to help Sunil Khilnani with his outstanding book-cum-radio shows - ‘Incarnations: India in 50 Lives’ (2016). Subsequently, in the last three years, Pillai has published three well researched books: ‘Ivory Throne: Chronicles of the House of Travancore’ (2016), ‘Rebel Sultans: the Deccan from Khilji to Shivaji’ (2018) and ‘The Courtesan, the Mahatma and the Italian Brahmin: Tales from Indian History’ (2019). Whilst we haven’t read the third book, we can safely say that first two books are riveting tales of intrigue &amp; conflict that would hold your attention for hours on an end.\r\n\r\nSo what can we learn from these writers? How can we improve our own skillset &amp; mindset?\r\n\r\n<strong>What marks out the greatest researchers?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1 . Question the received wisdom: </strong>Although Mark Twain said that <em>“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority it is time to pause &amp; reflect”</em>, most of us live in an echo chamber surrounded by people who are culturally and economically similar to us. We tell them what they like to hear and, for the most part, they return the favour. Great researchers buck this trend by having a more sceptical mindset. For them the natural thing to do is question the status quo rather than accepting things as they are.\r\n\r\nFor example, in his five volume biography of President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ), Robert Caro dismantles the conventional narrative built around LBJ by his previous biographers, namely that LBJ rose from a dirt poor Texan background and worked his way up to the Presidency courtesy his intelligence and his industry. Caro shows how money from the Texan construction company, Brown &amp; Root, underpinned LBJ’s ascent. Thanks to Caro’s research we now know that LBJ was the first modern day American President to cut deals with firms who benefit from government contracts – Brown &amp; Root provided money to Democrat politicians who needed election campaign finance. In return these politicians supported LBJ. And LBJ in turn saw to it that Brown &amp; Root got the government contracts it sought. Cynics who believe that only India is populated by such politicians should revisit their cynicism.\r\n\r\n<b>2 . Absorb the detail but see the big picture</b>: Before they hit the ‘eureka moment’, great researchers learn to keep digging. And in order to avoid getting lost in the detail, they learn to keep the big picture in mind. Steve Coll provides a masterly demonstration of this in ‘Directorate S’. The book is based on 550 interviews (conducted over 2007-17 across USA, Pakistan, Afghanistan &amp; Europe by Coll and his four researchers), hundreds of Wikileak cables, court documents from 7 cases fought in US courts, 20 sets of documents from the US Government, around 30 reports published by a variety of bodies (eg. the US Army, the London School of Economics, Atlantic Council, etc) and over 200 other books &amp; news reports.\r\n\r\nAnd yet through all of this Coll keeps his and the reader’s focus on the central narrative, namely: (a) Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda used the Taliban and Pakistan’s ISI to create a base in Afghanistan from which to attack American interests; (b) the ISI made extensive use of American money to fund terrorists in Afghanistan who eventually turned their guns &amp; bombs on America itself; and (c) the American intelligence agencies persistently underestimated the threat posed by Bin Laden and ISI inspite of the considerable body of evidence available to the CIA of the same\r\n\r\n<strong>3 . The courage to question your own hypothesis:</strong> Outstanding researchers have the willingness to continue researching even when the facts suggest that their own initial hypothesis is incorrect. Whilst most biographers of Mahatma Gandhi have typically relied on the great man’s account of his own life (which runs into 5000 pages) along with Richard Attenborough’s 1982 movie, Ram Guha takes a different approach in his two volume biography of the Mahatma.\r\n\r\nGuha repeatedly digs out contemporaneous sources and cites them in his books even when they contradict the Mahatma’s own account of his life. For example, in the second volume of the biography, Guha cites a letter written in the mid-1940s by Horace Alexander, a close friend of Gandhi’s. The subject of the letter are the chastity tests that Gandhi was subjecting himself by <em>“sleeping in a bed with his teenage grandniece, Manu Gandhi.”</em> Guha then quotes from Manu’s own diary what she thought of these experiments. Then he concludes <em>“There may have been, as it were, two sides to the story. Both Gandhi and Manu may have wanted to go through this experiment, or ordeal. To be sure, there was a certain amount of imposition – from his side.” </em>Guha knows that for him and for other devotees of the great man, this isn’t an easy conclusion to reach. However, he does not flinch from doing the research and telling us what he makes of the situation.\r\n\r\n<strong>4 . Communicate by simplifying complexity:</strong> The oldest book on human communication is Aristotle’s ‘Rhetorica’. Aristotle believed that an effective communicator must use compelling logic to make his point. Great researchers are adept at this. In India today, more than any other writer, Manu Pillai is communicating Indian history to a contemporary audience with short attention spans. He says, <em>“The books I read made it clear to me that the typical (and I daresay tedious) linear narratives which masquerade as history in popular imagination are highly limited, unable by their very nature to do justice to the magnificence of India’s story…it was work on my first book, The Ivory Throne, that really got me questioning received wisdom and notions—my protagonist, Sethu Lakshmi Bayi, was the last female Maharajah of Travancore…I wanted to resurrect her because she deserved to be more than a passing footnote in the story of Kerala. The themes I tried to weave around her tale—the matrilineal system, the invention of “tradition”, and the constant intermixing of cultures, in ways that would amaze and perhaps even shock some of us today—challenged elementary concepts I had learnt in school, based as they were on patriarchal standards and viewed through historically limited lens. As soon as my eyes were opened, I wanted to combine solid research with appealing language—after all, what is the point of discovering the past in all its glory, if it cannot be disseminated to a larger audience? We are all heirs to a remarkable heritage, and we owe it to ourselves to do justice to that heritage.” (Source:</em> <a href=\"https://www.platform-mag.com/literature/manu-s-pillai.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.platform-mag.com/literature/manu-s-pillai.html</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nThe goal of good investigative writers – and of good researchers in general - is too trigger action. Rarely are such people working in a cloister because they enjoy research for research’s sake. They see research as a means to an end. The end could be to expose a corrupt politician or it could be make a case against social injustice or to resurrect a forgotten story/figure.\r\n\r\nIn much the same vein, those of who undertake deep research into listed companies are either doing so to discover hidden perspectives/facts about these entities. Such perspectives could be negative (eg. many of India’s leading companies have financial statements which do not stack up) or they could be positive (eg. some of India’s most consistently profitable companies have built formidable barriers to entry which are cleverly hidden from the wider world).\r\n\r\nMore pertinently, the more we as investors look beyond <a href=\"http://blogs/the-indian-stockmarket-is-unique-here-is-the-data/\">stock prices</a> and P/E multiples and obsess about digging for facts &amp; perspectives in the real world, the more <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">we can anchor our investments</a> in the harsh realities of the highly competitive free market economy that is India today.\r\n\r\nWhether it is in investigative writing or in the<a href=\"/blogs/how-competitive-advantage-drives-churn-in-the-stockmarket/\"> stockmarket,</a> when we find people who are thoughtful, conscientious and forthright, we latch on to them because such people are more likely than not to deliver outstanding results in the professions of their choice.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<a href=\"/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'learning-from-great-investigative-writers', '', '', '2019-11-26 05:40:07', '2019-11-26 05:40:07', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1659', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1635, 1, '2019-08-31 06:11:52', '2019-08-31 06:11:52', '<em>Published on: 31 August, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Once a new technology rolls over you, if you\'re not part of the steamroller, you\'re part of the road – Stewart Brand, American Writer.</em>\r\n\r\nIn a few days from now, on September 7<sup>th</sup>, 2019, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is expected to land the Chandrayaan-2 on the Moon, joining a select group of nations to claim this achievement. Ask your friends and family, and you’ll see a general sense of pride in the moon-landing, as well as ISRO’s multiple achievements over the last many years. And rightly so. However, this wasn’t the case some years ago, when ISRO began thinking beyond just satellite launches. Arguments like “Why waste money in space when there is so much poverty here?” were common. We hear of similar arguments now, about the planned bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Why spend $15-16bn on a high-speed train instead of improving safety, cleanliness (or the quality of cutlets served!) on the existing network?\r\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a capital starved country like ours, these are natural, and obvious questions. Are there any visible or near-to-medium-term benefits of sending a probe to the moon? The investor or business manager in you might ask if this is sound capital allocation! <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">The payoffs of these investments</a> can be known only after decades of perseverance, as is now being seen in the case of ISRO. And there will be many failures too. That is why, any pursuit of a higher technology always comes with these quandaries. But thinking of it purely from a point of view of competing use of funds would stall progress completely, as a developing nation will always have other priorities over a bullet train, or a space mission.</p>\r\nSo how do we then think of technology investments in a capital constrained environment? Both, in terms of the process of technological development itself, and the desired or planned outcomes.\r\n\r\nWith capital as a constraining factor, the default process of development becomes the pursuit of marginal gains. Keep tinkering with the existing locomotives and related infrastructure to achieve small, incremental increases in trains speeds. From an average speed of 44kmph of passenger trains currently, to 54kmph and then 64kmph and so on, instead of a direct jump to a 300kmph bullet train. To be sure, the Indian Railways have been undertaking many initiatives towards this – developing 3-phase locos, eliminating manual rail crossings, electrifying more tracts of the network, automating signalling and so on. In a way, this is what ISRO did too, as it gradually built on its learnings from each mission, increasing payloads on every subsequent launch vehicle, and making the shift from the PSLV to the GSLV. This is a relatively lower cost path to progress. But it is long drawn, with a series of linear outcomes, before we reach a tipping point beyond which gains accrue in a non-linear fashion. It took ISRO nearly 30 years after the first satellite launch from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota, to launch the first orbiter mission to the moon, Chandrayaan-1. From the Chandrayaan-1, it took a mere 5 years to the Mangalyaan (Mars Orbiter Mission) and another 6 years to the Chandrayaan-2 moon landing.\r\n\r\nThe other mode of development is to move directly from linear to non-linear results by taking a giant stride. In many cases it is imperative to make the big leap in order to catch up with the changing pace of technology worldwide. Aim directly for the 300kmph speed on the train! Or reimagine highway development with a 700km, 6-lane greenfield expressway (under construction between Mumbai and Nagpur), instead of first building a two-lane highway, then expanding it to four and then six lanes over 15 years. The analysis of outcomes needs to be more nuanced here, since no traditional economic metric, or an outcome budget, will justify the outlay. The nuance comes from looking at spill over effects of such projects, in addition to the direct benefits or results achieved against desired outcomes.\r\n\r\nISRO’s missions have clearly helped build indigenous capabilities in aerospace engineering, material science, metallurgy and so on. But they have also had far reaching benefits in weather forecasting, military communication, television broadcasting, street-level navigation and many other areas. When the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) took up the development of an indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), it was a big technology leap. But after 30 years there still isn’t a full squadron of these aircraft inducted by the Indian Air Force. But the project has spawned an array of indigenous engineering and technology companies, both large and small, which today are exporting critical components and equipment to global aeronautical majors and a few countries have expressed interest in buying the LCA itself.\r\n\r\nSimilarly, the bullet train project will drive a technology leap in the domestic transportation ecosystem. A further, more interesting and path-breaking effect could be the potential to disperse populations from our overcrowded cities. A diamond merchant need not make Mumbai, the diamond trading hub, his or her home – Surat, the diamond processing hub will be just an hour away in a high-speed train. In fact, as costs per kilometre reduce with every additional bullet train project built, the greatest benefit can be in decongesting our cities – think of links between, and along Bangalore-Mysore, Mumbai-Pune, Mumbai-Nashik, Delhi-Jaipur, Chennai-Bangalore and so on.\r\n\r\nWe have seen this happen with the Mumbai-Pune Expressway which, when built, was the first of its kind in India. In the very first decade of getting connected, Pune saw a 12% CAGR in real GDP, acceleration in development of new urban localities such as Wakad, Aundh, Hinjewadi, and its steady rise as a weforum. The Mumbai-Nagpur Expressway can be equally transformative for other Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities like Aurangabad, Nagpur etc.\r\n\r\nA parting thought is to ponder how would things work in an environment where capital is not so much a constraint? Take the example of the Indian IT industry. The 4 biggest Indian companies reported an aggregate EBIT of close to $50bn over a decade starting 2006. Could this large pool of funds have been deployed to alter the tech landscape and achieve a big leap forward? Moving from services to products, or to the cutting edge of mobile computing or to global leadership in artificial intelligence? Maybe. But that’s a discussion for some other time.\r\n<em><a href=\"/team/salil-desai/\">Salil Desai</a> is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Technology, for more than technology’s sake', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'technology-for-more-than-technologys-sake', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:11:57', '2019-11-01 06:11:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1635', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1657, 1, '2019-11-01 06:14:10', '2019-11-01 06:14:10', '<em>Published on:19 August, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Whilst David Epstein’s latest book, ‘Range’, has ignited the debate on Generalists vs Specialists, we believe that the ideal recipe is a combination i.e. in any competitive profession the people who will rise to the top are those who have: (1) the skills/experience to deal with a wide variety of challenges; AND (2) deep expertise in the core competence offered by the profession to its customers.</strong><strong>\n</strong>\n<em>“Use only that which works, and take it from any place you can find it.” </em>–<strong> Bruce Lee as quoted in ‘Bruce Lee: Fighting Spirit’ (1994) by Bruce Thomas</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1595\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Bruce-Lee.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"183\" height=\"276\" /></p>\n<strong>David Epstein’s fine book triggers a debate</strong>\nMalcolm Gladwell’s bestseller ‘The Outliers’ (2008) popularised the concept that with 10,000 hours of ‘deliberate’ practice under the guidance of an expert/coach anyone could become a world beater at anything. That in turn led to ambitious parents enrolling their kids into coaching classes as early as they could to ensure that their children started clocking those 10,000 hours ASAP.\n\nNow, however, in an equally well written book <em>‘Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World’</em> (2019), David Epstein says that the ‘10,000 hours of practice’ theory is not only misguided, it could also be damaging. Epstein argues that specialists flourish in “kind” learning environments (such as golf, classical music, technology innovation, chess), where patterns recur and feedback is quick and accurate. By contrast, generalists flourish in “wicked” learning environments (business, politics, fund management, medicine, day-to-day life), where patterns are harder to discern and feedback is delayed and/or inaccurate. Why so?\n\nEpstein cites two reasons why generalists outperform specialists in ‘wicked’ learning environments. Firstly, generalists tend to have a more rounded set of skills and hence are able to adapt to difficult/fluid learning environments better than specialists (who tend to be more uni-dimensional in their talents &amp; training). Secondly, generalists have better “match” quality i.e. because they have done a broader range of things in life, the odds are relatively high generalists have settled upon/specialised in an activity which fits (or matches) their talents better. As it happens, another recently published book, ‘Bruce Lee: A Life’ (2018), by Matthew Polly provides an almost ideal exemplification of Epstein’s theory in a setting many of us can identify with, namely, the rise of Asia amidst the ascendancy of the US after World War II.\n\n<strong>Bruce Lee: the ultimate “Generalist”</strong>\nPolly begins the book by giving us the outline of Bruce Lee’s life. He was born San Francisco in 1940 to Chinese parents who were in the US on a working visa. He then grew up in Hong Kong and became a child movie star before he was banished by his father to the US when he was 18. He finished his schooling in Seattle and set up his first martial arts (kung-fu) school there even before we he went to the University of Washington. Another kung-fu school in Oakland followed three years later before Hollywood discovered Bruce Lee at the Long Beach Karate Championships in 1964.\n\nSmall roles in US TV serials followed but Hollywood couldn’t get over its mental block about an Asian man helming a movie. Instead, in 1971 Bruce Lee’s big break came from Hong Kong – his lead role in “The Big Boss” made him a superstar in Asia. Over the next two years, four more hit movies (the final one being “Enter the Dragon”, widely considered to be the finest martial arts movie of all time) established Bruce Lee as a global superstar before his tragic death in Hong Kong in 1973 in mysterious circumstances. Whilst some say that Bruce Lee died due to an allergic reaction to a prescription painkiller, Polly says that Bruce’s death was caused due to his body overheating as he had had the sweat glands in his armpits removed so as to help him film for longer without having to change shirts. Without sweat glands, Polly claims, Bruce’s body could not cool down swiftly enough in the peak of the Hong Kong summer.\n\nMore than his death in mysterious circumstances, what makes Bruce Lee interesting is his fusion of many different styles of fighting not just to create a unique style of combat (which would go on to be called Mixed Martial Arts) but also to create a new genre of cinema – the martial arts movie.\n\nAs a schoolboy, Bruce Lee began by learning <em>wing chun</em>, an obscure style of kung-fu, in Hong Kong from his first and only formal guru, Ip Man. He then studied other styles of kung-fu whilst learning judo from his pupil in Seattle, Jesse Glover, and taekwondo from his friend in Oakland, Jhoon Rhee, also known as the “father of taekwondo in America”. In fact, Bruce Lee learnt martial arts from so many people that when he became a star, several people - from Chuck Norris and Jhoon Rhee – claim to have taught him his famous side-kick.\n\nWhilst still in his early teens, Bruce was taught the basics of Western-style boxing by Father Gordon, a schoolteacher in Hong Kong. After he moved to America, Bruce studied boxing films closely, especially those of Muhammad Ali (formerly Cassius Marcellus Clay, the man whose life inspired the name of our firm), to understand how the entire body can be used to pack an enormously powerful punch. Bruce also took from boxing its training techniques – skipping, weight training, punching heavy bags five hundred times in a day and a five-mile run at the crack of dawn to build stamina.\n\nIn his early teens, Bruce also learned the basics of fencing from his brother. He would go on read and build a library of many dozens of books on fencing. Not only did he become an expert fencer, he combined kung-fu and fencing to create the pose which he holds in his iconic photographs wherein he “leads” with his right hand and “finishes” or signs-off with his feet. Bruce called his style of kung-fu “fencing without a sword” see <a href=\"https://academyoffencingmasters.com/blog/bruce-lee-the-worlds-most-famous-fencer/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://academyoffencingmasters.com/blog/bruce-lee-the-worlds-most-famous-fencer/</a> for more details).\n\nIn his twenties, after reading American body building magazines, Bruce Lee adopted the dietary practices recommended by them i.e. a protein rich diet accompanied by weight training with lots of repetitions to improve muscle definition. Addicted to non-stop training, whilst watching TV or whilst waiting for his next shot on the sets of a movie, Bruce would do hundreds of repetitions.\n\nBattling Hollywood’s relentless racism, from acting coaches Bruce Lee learnt how to slow down his English so that it was easier for Western audiences to follow him and how to slow down his fighting so that the camera could actually see him. By slowing down his fight scenes – most of which he choreographed himself – Bruce Lee transformed the Asian martial arts movie from a sideshow to mainstream entertainment in the US market. (Sadly, 45 years on some people in Hollywood are still can’t stop tripping over the issue of race:<a href=\"https://ew.com/movies/2019/08/17/kareem-abdul-jabbar-quentin-tarantino-bruce-lee-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://ew.com/movies/2019/08/17/kareem-abdul-jabbar-quentin-tarantino-bruce-lee-once-upon-a-time-in-hollywood/</a>\n\nAlongside all this training &amp; movie work, Bruce Lee was reading and writing at a frenetic pace. He extensively read Western, Taoist and Confucian philosophy and was particularly influenced by Jiddu Krishnamurthy’s religion-less philosophy. Martial arts coach to the biggest Hollywood stars of his time, Bruce Lee went on to write two martial art guides to his style of kung-fu, <em>“Chinese Gung-Fu: The Philosophical Art of Self Defense”</em> and <em>“The Tao of Jeet Kune Do”.</em> The latter book, published after his death, has become the largest selling martial arts book of all time (see <a href=\"https://blackbeltmag.com/store/books/tao-of-jeet-kune-do-expanded-edition\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://blackbeltmag.com/store/books/tao-of-jeet-kune-do-expanded-edition</a>\n\nIn the 1971 American TV series, ‘Longstreet’, Bruce Lee narrated the lines which have almost became his epitaph: <em>“Don\'t get set into one form, adapt it and build your own, and let it grow, be like water. Empty your mind, be formless, shapeless — like water. Now you put water in a cup, it becomes the cup; You put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle; You put it in a teapot it becomes the teapot. Now water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.” </em>(Source: Bruce Lee: A Warrior\'s Journey (2000))\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nWhilst ‘Range’ makes a compelling case that all of us should strive for broadness throughout our careers, long before we had heard of David Epstein, we at Marcellus were not only fans of reading material from a wide range of disciplines (as exemplified by the “3 Longs &amp; 3 Shorts” pieces which we send you every Sunday morning), we had also created a recruitment process which filtered in people from eclectic backgrounds (Engineering, Accounting, Statistics, Economics, Law, etc).\n\nMore generally, we fail to see the conflict between Epstein’s ‘Range’ and Gladwell’s 10,000 hours. In fact, the two books appear to be complementary for it seems self-evident to us that in any competitive profession the people who will rise to the top are those who have: (1) the skills/experience to deal with a wide variety of challenges; <strong>AND</strong> (2) deep expertise in the core competence offered by the profession to its customers.\n\nSo, regardless of whether you are a cricketer, a politician, a fund manager, a dancer or a film star, it is hard to believe that in the rapidly evolving flux of a complex and competitive society: (a) a uni-dimensional expert; OR (b) an incompetent expert will reach the summit.\n\nThe mental-model for achieving success in complex “wicked” societies such as ours is therefore that of a “T” i.e. broad based knowledge along deep-focused expertise. In case you want a simple way to remember the same, you could consider making this Bruce Lee poster your screensaver:\n<a href=\"https://www.wallpaperup.com/170153/THE_WAY_OF_THE_DRAGON_martial_arts_bruce_lee_f.html \" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.wallpaperup.com/170153/THE_WAY_OF_THE_DRAGON_martial_arts_bruce_lee_f.html</a>\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">\"http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'Bruce Lee And The Rise Of The \"Generalist\"', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1594-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:14:10', '2019-11-01 06:14:10', '', 1594, 'http://marcellus.in/1594-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1661, 1, '2019-09-09 06:56:54', '2019-09-09 06:56:54', '', 'close-ico', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'close-ico', '', '', '2019-09-09 06:56:54', '2019-09-09 06:56:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/close-ico.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
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(1978, 1, '2019-10-30 11:15:32', '2019-10-30 11:15:32', '<em>Published on: 31 August, 2019</em>\n\n<em>Once a new technology rolls over you, if you\'re not part of the steamroller, you\'re part of the road – Stewart Brand, American Writer.</em>\n\nIn a few days from now, on September 7<sup>th</sup>, 2019, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is expected to land the Chandrayaan-2 on the Moon, joining a select group of nations to claim this achievement. Ask your friends and family, and you’ll see a general sense of pride in the moon-landing, as well as ISRO’s multiple achievements over the last many years. And rightly so. However, this wasn’t the case some years ago, when ISRO began thinking beyond just satellite launches. Arguments like “Why waste money in space when there is so much poverty here?” were common. We hear of similar arguments now, about the planned bullet train project between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. Why spend $15-16bn on a high-speed train instead of improving safety, cleanliness (or the quality of cutlets served!) on the existing network?\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In a capital starved country like ours, these are natural, and obvious questions. Are there any visible or near-to-medium-term benefits of sending a probe to the moon? The investor or business manager in you might ask if this is sound capital allocation! <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">The payoffs of these investments</a> can be known only after decades of perseverance, as is now being seen in the case of ISRO. And there will be many failures too. That is why, any pursuit of a higher technology always comes with these quandaries. But thinking of it purely from a point of view of competing use of funds would stall progress completely, as a developing nation will always have other priorities over a bullet train, or a space mission.</p>\nSo how do we then think of technology investments in a capital constrained environment? Both, in terms of the process of technological development itself, and the desired or planned outcomes.\n\nWith capital as a constraining factor, the default process of development becomes the pursuit of marginal gains. Keep tinkering with the existing locomotives and related infrastructure to achieve small, incremental increases in trains speeds. From an average speed of 44kmph of passenger trains currently, to 54kmph and then 64kmph and so on, instead of a direct jump to a 300kmph bullet train. To be sure, the Indian Railways have been undertaking many initiatives towards this – developing 3-phase locos, eliminating manual rail crossings, electrifying more tracts of the network, automating signalling and so on. In a way, this is what ISRO did too, as it gradually built on its learnings from each mission, increasing payloads on every subsequent launch vehicle, and making the shift from the PSLV to the GSLV. This is a relatively lower cost path to progress. But it is long drawn, with a series of linear outcomes, before we reach a tipping point beyond which gains accrue in a non-linear fashion. It took ISRO nearly 30 years after the first satellite launch from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota, to launch the first orbiter mission to the moon, Chandrayaan-1. From the Chandrayaan-1, it took a mere 5 years to the Mangalyaan (Mars Orbiter Mission) and another 6 years to the Chandrayaan-2 moon landing.\n\nThe other mode of development is to move directly from linear to non-linear results by taking a giant stride. In many cases it is imperative to make the big leap in order to catch up with the changing pace of technology worldwide. Aim directly for the 300kmph speed on the train! Or reimagine highway development with a 700km, 6-lane greenfield expressway (under construction between Mumbai and Nagpur), instead of first building a two-lane highway, then expanding it to four and then six lanes over 15 years. The analysis of outcomes needs to be more nuanced here, since no traditional economic metric, or an outcome budget, will justify the outlay. The nuance comes from looking at spill over effects of such projects, in addition to the direct benefits or results achieved against desired outcomes.\n\nISRO’s missions have clearly helped build indigenous capabilities in aerospace engineering, material science, metallurgy and so on. But they have also had far reaching benefits in weather forecasting, military communication, television broadcasting, street-level navigation and many other areas. When the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) took up the development of an indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), it was a big technology leap. But after 30 years there still isn’t a full squadron of these aircraft inducted by the Indian Air Force. But the project has spawned an array of indigenous engineering and technology companies, both large and small, which today are exporting critical components and equipment to global aeronautical majors and a few countries have expressed interest in buying the LCA itself.\n\nSimilarly, the bullet train project will drive a technology leap in the domestic transportation ecosystem. A further, more interesting and path-breaking effect could be the potential to disperse populations from our overcrowded cities. A diamond merchant need not make Mumbai, the diamond trading hub, his or her home – Surat, the diamond processing hub will be just an hour away in a high-speed train. In fact, as costs per kilometre reduce with every additional bullet train project built, the greatest benefit can be in decongesting our cities – think of links between, and along Bangalore-Mysore, Mumbai-Pune, Mumbai-Nashik, Delhi-Jaipur, Chennai-Bangalore and so on.\n\nWe have seen this happen with the Mumbai-Pune Expressway which, when built, was the first of its kind in India. In the very first decade of getting connected, Pune saw a 12% CAGR in real GDP, acceleration in development of new urban localities such as Wakad, Aundh, Hinjewadi, and its steady rise as a weforum. The Mumbai-Nagpur Expressway can be equally transformative for other Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities like Aurangabad, Nagpur etc.\n\nA parting thought is to ponder how would things work in an environment where capital is not so much a constraint? Take the example of the Indian IT industry. The 4 biggest Indian companies reported an aggregate EBIT of close to $50bn over a decade starting 2006. Could this large pool of funds have been deployed to alter the tech landscape and achieve a big leap forward? Moving from services to products, or to the cutting edge of mobile computing or to global leadership in artificial intelligence? Maybe. But that’s a discussion for some other time.\n<em><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/salil-desai/\">Salil Desai</a> is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Technology, for more than technology’s sake', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1635-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 11:15:32', '2019-10-30 11:15:32', '', 1635, 'http://marcellus.in/1635-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1636, 1, '2019-09-01 00:28:36', '2019-09-01 00:28:36', '<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio has shown resilience since inception in 2018. This resilience is not uncommon for share prices of great companies. Over the past 2 decades, in stock market crashes,stocks like Asian Paints and HDFC Bank have, more often than not, delivered positive and healthy returns.More importantly, in the few instances that these stocks have delivered negative returns during stock market crashes, their drawdowns have been smaller than that of the market, and the recovery has been sooner and sharper vs the market. This outperformance during periods of market crash is due to a combination of two factors: a) earnings growth of such stocks more than offsets the P/E multiple compression; and b) the degree of P/E multiple compression for consistent compounders is lower than that for the broader market. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31st August 2019 </strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with a intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1637 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image-1-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"440\" />\r\n\r\nThis performance has been well supported by robust underlying fundamentals of our portfolio companies. As highlighted in the chart below, <strong>revenue growth and earnings growth of our portfolio companies (weighted by the % of portfolio in that stock) have been 16% YoY and 17% YoY respectively.</strong> This robust performance has been delivered during a period when the broader economic environment is undergoing substantial moderation, in particular for the B2C consumption oriented categories. Most of our portfolio constituents are companies involved in products and services associated with middle class household consumption.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1638 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"789\" height=\"426\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Consistent compounders outperform during market stress </strong>\r\n\r\n“’Only when the tide goes out do you discover who\'s been swimming naked’. This insight from Warren Buffett has repeatedly proved to be correct when it comes to investing in stocks. When the broader market is\r\nundergoing a euphoric or bullish phase, most stocks do well regardless of the quality of their underlying fundamentals. However, when the euphoria ends, stocks with poor underlying fundamentals are decimated, leading to significant capital erosion for investors who did not adequately understand the weak fundamentals of their portfolio companies.” – <strong>from ‘Coffee Can Investing: The low risk route to stupendous wealth’ (2018)by Rakshit Ranjan, Saurabh Mukherjea &amp; Pranab Uniyal</strong>\r\n\r\nBSE Sensex Index has delivered 12% CAGR over the past 20 financial years (FY99-FY19). Out of these 20 years,<strong>the Sensex has delivered a negative return in six years.</strong> In each of these six years, an investor would have ideally wanted to sit out in cash and hence avoid any drawdown in his portfolio. However, <strong>staying invested in a portfolio of consistent compounders throughout these 20 years, including the six years of Sensex crash would have been more prudent.</strong>\r\nLet us first understand this using Asian Paints’ example in the chart below.\r\n\r\nThe horizontal axis of the chart shows Sensex’s one-year performance for a financial year (1st April to 31st March). The vertical axis of the chart shows Asian Paints’ one-year performance for the same financial year. Here is the difference between misconception and reality:\r\n\r\n•<strong> The misconception:</strong> When an investor tries to time his entry and exit from Asian Paints based on his expected direction of Sensex, he is assuming that investments in Asian Paints will either fall in the top right quadrant of this chart or in the bottom left quadrant of this chart.\r\n\r\n•<strong> The reality:</strong> As shown in exhibit 4, there are more data points in the top-left quadrant of the chartthan there are in the bottom-left quadrant of the chart! Hence, even if an investor can predict a Sensexcrash correctly, in 67% of such Sensex crashes historically, Asian Paints has delivered a positive share price performance. This has made it futile to time entry and exit from Asian Paints based on an investor’s view of the broader stock market direction!\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1639 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"469\" />\r\n\r\nAnd here are some added benefits of staying invested in Asian Paints (see exhibit 5):\r\n<strong>• 20%+ share price increase per annum in 13 out of 20 years</strong>: Data points above the red dotted horizontal line in exhibit 5 below show that in 13 out of 20 financial years, Asian Paints has delivered more than 20% share price return. Most importantly, <strong>two of these 13 instances are those where Sensex was negative (and still Asian Paints delivered more than 20% share price rise in these years).</strong>\r\nHence, if an investor sits out in cash waiting for the market to correct, it could be a year when the investor’s call on the market is right, but Asian Paints is (more likely than not) to rise by 20% or more even in such circumstances.\r\n\r\n• <strong>Positive alpha in 16 out of 20 years:</strong> The black dotted line is an ‘X=Y’ line. Data points above this line are where <strong>Asian Paints’ share price has outperformed vs Sensex. Asian Paints has outperformed vs Sensex in 16 out of 20 years i.e. 80% of the instances!</strong>\r\n\r\nLastly, there are no data points in the bottom right quadrant i.e. there are ZERO instances of Asian Paints delivering a negative return when Sensex delivered a positive return.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1640 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"843\" height=\"564\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Asian Paints is not an exception – all consistent compounders deliver similar outcomes</strong>\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in the table below, the observations highlighted for Asian Paints in the analysis above are common across all consistent compounders.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1641 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"765\" height=\"296\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Why do consistent compounders outperform during market stress?</strong>\r\nLet’s consider a simple equation - share price is a product of two factors – ‘P/E multiple’ and ‘Earnings’.\r\n\r\nThe broader market delivers no more than 10-12% annualized earnings compounding, but in an inconsistent manner. Hence, when periods of weak earnings growth (say 0-5%) coincide with P/E multiple compression,  we see a stock market crash.\r\n\r\nConsistent compounders (the kind of stocks highlighted in exhibit 4 above), have historically delivered 20-25% annualized earnings compounding in a very consistent manner. Even during periods of weak economic growth\r\nthese firms tend to deliver 15-17% annualized earnings growth. Moreover, given their consistency of healthy of healthy fundamentals  during periods of P/E multiple compression these stocks undergo a low degree of P/E multiple compression than the border market.The interplay between these two markets for consistent compounders ensures that:\r\n<strong>1.Earnings growth more than offsets the P/E de-rating:</strong> For example, in FY03 and FY16 (see exhibit 7 below), Asian Paints managed to maintain healthy earnings growth even in a disruptive external environment. Hence, the ripple effect of a stressed stock market’s P/E multiple de-rating has been more than offset by Asian Paints’s earnings growth during the same period.\r\n\r\n<strong>2.P/E does not de-rate because the market incrementally factors in longevity of earnings:</strong> In FY12, Asian Paints’s P/E multiple expanded by 9% with an EPS growth of 17%, in a year when the Sensex’s P/E multiple deflated by 16% and Sensex’s earnings grew by 6%.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1643 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"287\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications - The trinity of uncertainty</strong>\r\nAt any point of time for an equity investor, there is no shortage of uncertain / unexpected events around the next 12 month’s macro-economic environment. For example - 2019 has been about politics (general elections),union budget, US-China trade war etc. 2018 was about the union budget (long term capital gains tax), SEBI regulations for mutual funds (large cap MF can’t hold too much exposure to mid and small caps), IL&amp;FS crisis, crude oil price rally in September etc. 2017 had GST, 2016 had demonetization – so on and so forth. Amidst\r\nall this ‘excitement’, most equity investors tend to predict three layers of uncertainty:\r\n<strong>1. Outcome of major global/national events</strong> – for instance, not too many investors could have predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in 2019, let alone predicting events like demonetization and the extent of the trade war between the USA and China!\r\n<strong>2. Direction of the stock market based on the outcome of these events -</strong> for example, sitting in November 2016, it was difficult to think that demonetization will be followed by one of the biggest stock markets rally in 2017. Similarly, not too many investors could foresee that the BJP’s crushing victory in the 2019 elections would be followed by a stock market correction.\r\n<strong>3. Share price movements in your stock portfolio, based on the direction of the stock market</strong> – logically speaking, only the P/E multiple of a stock can have some correlation with the broader market, not the stock’s fundamentals (earnings). Hence, weak fundamentals will lead to a share price fall in a rising market and vice a versa. A recent example of this is Asian Paints’ 17-18% YoY volume growth in 1QFY20 amidst broader consumption slowdown, which has led to a 18% rally in its share price over the past two months when Sensex has fallen by 5%.\r\n\r\nGiven the difficultly of predicting the outcome of this trinity of uncertainty, over the longer term it becomes a speculative and futile exercise for an equity investor to time entry and exit from the stock market based on these events.\r\n\r\nOur Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) overcomes this challenge by building a portfolio of companies whose consistency of healthy fundamentals results in a low-volatility of their share prices. In cricketing parlance, predicting when Rahul Dravid would make a half century, did not require someone to analyse factors like pitch-report, weather-report, opposition bowlers’ strength, whether it is a league match or a high pressure series final etc. However, predicting the batting performance of most other batsmen, would have required all this analysis!\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\"> https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this emaihttp://marcellus.in/resources/l in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person\r\nrelying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy', 'Why consistent compounders outperform during market stress?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:57', '2020-01-20 10:56:57', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1636', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(1662, 1, '2019-09-09 07:05:41', '2019-09-09 07:05:41', '<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12 sname\">\r\n<label> <span class=\"label\">Name* </span>\r\n    [text* your-name autocomplete:off]\r\n</label>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 semail\">\r\n<label> <span class=\"label\"> Email* </span>\r\n    [email* your-email autocomplete:off] \r\n </label>\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 stel\">\r\n<label> <span class=\"label\"> Phone number* </span>\r\n    [tel* tel-309 autocomplete:off]\r\n</label>\r\n</div>\r\n[submit \"Send\"]\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\n1\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\nrajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\nFrom: [your-name] <[your-email]>\r\nSubject: [your-subject]\r\n\r\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: [your-email]\n\n\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'Enquiry Form', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'enquiry-form', '', '', '2019-09-24 10:34:45', '2019-09-24 10:34:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&#038;p=1662', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
(1644, 1, '2019-08-31 15:50:26', '2019-08-31 15:50:26', '<strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio has shown resilience since inception in 2018. This resilience is not uncommon for share prices of great companies. Over the past 2 decades, in stock market crashes,stocks like Asian Paints and HDFC Bank have, more often than not, delivered positive and healthy returns.More importantly, in the few instances that these stocks have delivered negative returns during stock market crashes, their drawdowns have been smaller than that of the market, and the recovery has been sooner and sharper vs the market. This outperformance during periods of market crash is due to a combination of two factors: a) earnings growth of such stocks more than offsets the P/E multiple compression; and b) the degree of P/E multiple compression for consistent compounders is lower than that for the broader market. </strong>\n\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31st August 2019 </strong>\n\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with a intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1637 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image-1-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"440\" />\n\nThis performance has been well supported by robust underlying fundamentals of our portfolio companies. As highlighted in the chart below, <strong>revenue growth and earnings growth of our portfolio companies (weighted by the % of portfolio in that stock) have been 16% YoY and 17% YoY respectively.</strong> This robust performance has been delivered during a period when the broader economic environment is undergoing substantial moderation, in particular for the B2C consumption oriented categories. Most of our portfolio constituents are companies involved in products and services associated with middle class household consumption.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1638 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"789\" height=\"426\" />\n\n<strong>Consistent compounders outperform during market stress </strong>\n\n“’Only when the tide goes out do you discover who\'s been swimming naked’. This insight from Warren Buffett has repeatedly proved to be correct when it comes to investing in stocks. When the broader market is\nundergoing a euphoric or bullish phase, most stocks do well regardless of the quality of their underlying fundamentals. However, when the euphoria ends, stocks with poor underlying fundamentals are decimated, leading to significant capital erosion for investors who did not adequately understand the weak fundamentals of their portfolio companies.” – <strong>from ‘Coffee Can Investing: The low risk route to stupendous wealth’ (2018)by Rakshit Ranjan, Saurabh Mukherjea &amp; Pranab Uniyal</strong>\n\nBSE Sensex Index has delivered 12% CAGR over the past 20 financial years (FY99-FY19). Out of these 20 years,<strong>the Sensex has delivered a negative return in six years.</strong> In each of these six years, an investor would have ideally wanted to sit out in cash and hence avoid any drawdown in his portfolio. However, <strong>staying invested in a portfolio of consistent compounders throughout these 20 years, including the six years of Sensex crash would have been more prudent.</strong>\nLet us first understand this using Asian Paints’ example in the chart below.\n\nThe horizontal axis of the chart shows Sensex’s one-year performance for a financial year (1st April to 31st March). The vertical axis of the chart shows Asian Paints’ one-year performance for the same financial year. Here is the difference between misconception and reality:\n\n•<strong> The misconception:</strong> When an investor tries to time his entry and exit from Asian Paints based on his expected direction of Sensex, he is assuming that investments in Asian Paints will either fall in the top right quadrant of this chart or in the bottom left quadrant of this chart.\n\n•<strong> The reality:</strong> As shown in exhibit 4, there are more data points in the top-left quadrant of the chartthan there are in the bottom-left quadrant of the chart! Hence, even if an investor can predict a Sensexcrash correctly, in 67% of such Sensex crashes historically, Asian Paints has delivered a positive share price performance. This has made it futile to time entry and exit from Asian Paints based on an investor’s view of the broader stock market direction!\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1639 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"818\" height=\"469\" />\n\nAnd here are some added benefits of staying invested in Asian Paints (see exhibit 5):\n<strong>• 20%+ share price increase per annum in 13 out of 20 years</strong>: Data points above the red dotted horizontal line in exhibit 5 below show that in 13 out of 20 financial years, Asian Paints has delivered more than 20% share price return. Most importantly, <strong>two of these 13 instances are those where Sensex was negative (and still Asian Paints delivered more than 20% share price rise in these years).</strong>\nHence, if an investor sits out in cash waiting for the market to correct, it could be a year when the investor’s call on the market is right, but Asian Paints is (more likely than not) to rise by 20% or more even in such circumstances.\n\n• <strong>Positive alpha in 16 out of 20 years:</strong> The black dotted line is an ‘X=Y’ line. Data points above this line are where <strong>Asian Paints’ share price has outperformed vs Sensex. Asian Paints has outperformed vs Sensex in 16 out of 20 years i.e. 80% of the instances!</strong>\n\nLastly, there are no data points in the bottom right quadrant i.e. there are ZERO instances of Asian Paints delivering a negative return when Sensex delivered a positive return.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1640 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"843\" height=\"564\" />\n\n<strong>Asian Paints is not an exception –</strong> all consistent compounders deliver similar outcomes As highlighted in the table below, the observations highlighted for Asian Paints in the analysis above are common across all consistent compounders.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1641 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"765\" height=\"296\" />\n\n<strong>Why do consistent compounders outperform during market stress?</strong>\nLet’s consider a simple equation - share price is a product of two factors – ‘P/E multiple’ and ‘Earnings’.\n\nThe broader market delivers no more than 10-12% annualized earnings compounding, but in an inconsistent manner. Hence, when periods of weak earnings growth (say 0-5%) coincide with P/E multiple compression,  we see a stock market crash.\n\nConsistent compounders (the kind of stocks highlighted in exhibit 4 above), have historically delivered 20-25% annualized earnings compounding in a very consistent manner. Even during periods of weak economic growth\nthese firms tend to deliver 15-17% annualized earnings growth. Moreover, given their consistency of healthy of healthy fundamentals  during periods of P/E multiple compression these stocks undergo a low degree of P/E multiple compression than the border market.The interplay between these two markets for consistent compounders ensures that:\n<strong>1.Earnings growth more than offsets the P/E de-rating:</strong> For example, in FY03 and FY16 (see exhibit 7 below), Asian Paints managed to maintain healthy earnings growth even in a disruptive external environment. Hence, the ripple effect of a stressed stock market’s P/E multiple de-rating has been more than offset by Asian Paints’s earnings growth during the same period.\n\n<strong>2.P/E does not de-rate because the market incrementally factors in longevity of earnings:</strong> In FY12, Asian Paints’s P/E multiple expanded by 9% with an EPS growth of 17%, in a year when the Sensex’s P/E multiple deflated by 16% and Sensex’s earnings grew by 6%.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1643 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/image6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"287\" />\n\n<strong>Investment implications - The trinity of uncertainty</strong>\nAt any point of time for an equity investor, there is no shortage of uncertain / unexpected events around the next 12 month’s macro-economic environment. For example - 2019 has been about politics (general elections),union budget, US-China trade war etc. 2018 was about the union budget (long term capital gains tax), SEBI regulations for mutual funds (large cap MF can’t hold too much exposure to mid and small caps), IL&amp;FS crisis, crude oil price rally in September etc. 2017 had GST, 2016 had demonetization – so on and so forth. Amidst\nall this ‘excitement’, most equity investors tend to predict three layers of uncertainty:\n<strong>1. Outcome of major global/national events</strong> – for instance, not too many investors could have predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in 2019, let alone predicting events like demonetization and the extent of the trade war between the USA and China!\n<strong>2. Direction of the stock market based on the outcome of these events -</strong> for example, sitting in November 2016, it was difficult to think that demonetization will be followed by one of the biggest stock markets rally in 2017. Similarly, not too many investors could foresee that the BJP’s crushing victory in the 2019 elections would be followed by a stock market correction.\n<strong>3. Share price movements in your stock portfolio, based on the direction of the stock market</strong> – logically speaking, only the P/E multiple of a stock can have some correlation with the broader market, not the stock’s fundamentals (earnings). Hence, weak fundamentals will lead to a share price fall in a rising market and vice a versa. A recent example of this is Asian Paints’ 17-18% YoY volume growth in 1QFY20 amidst broader consumption slowdown, which has led to a 18% rally in its share price over the past two months when Sensex has fallen by 5%.\n\nGiven the difficultly of predicting the outcome of this trinity of uncertainty, over the longer term it becomes a speculative and futile exercise for an equity investor to time entry and exit from the stock market based on these events.\n\nOur Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) overcomes this challenge by building a portfolio of companies whose consistency of healthy fundamentals results in a low-volatility of their share prices. In cricketing parlance, predicting when Rahul Dravid would make a half century, did not require someone to analyse factors like pitch-report, weather-report, opposition bowlers’ strength, whether it is a league match or a high pressure series final etc. However, predicting the batting performance of most other batsmen, would have required all this analysis!\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person\nrelying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy', 'Why consistent compounders outperform during market stress?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1636-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-08-31 15:50:26', '2019-08-31 15:50:26', '', 1636, 'http://marcellus.in/1636-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1645, 1, '2019-09-01 13:33:58', '2019-09-01 13:33:58', 'The author is yet another high-quality writer from the Ritholtz stable and he has produced a really interesting piece of how trading, like other aspects of life, has gradually become an arms race. He begins by using Darwin’s theory of evolution to lay out the basic concept: <em>“Darwin is in the Galápagos Islands when he notices something peculiar about the various finches living there.  Each finch species had a different kind of beak.  On some of the islands the beaks were small, while on others they were large.  Some were pointy and some were smooth.</em>\r\n<em>As Darwin continued to observe the finches, he realized that their beaks were well suited for acquiring food on their particular island of residence.  It was as if the finches had adapted their beaks to fit their environment…Evolution by natural selection was born…However, by focusing solely on mother nature we miss half the story.  Because evolution isn’t just about adapting to the environment.  It’s also about adapting to the other players in that environment. </em><strong><em> We don’t just evolve to face the elements, we also evolve to face each other.</em></strong><em>”</em>\r\nThe author then highlights a book by Matt Ridley which expands on the point highlighted in bold font. <em>“This is the critical point made by Matt Ridley in The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature.  In the book, Ridley argues that there is an evolutionary arms race between predators and prey, parasites and hosts, and even males and females.  This ongoing conflict implies, as Ridley suggests, that “the struggle for existence never gets easier.”  As Ridley states in his book:</em>\r\n<em>One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage.  Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention.  Every success contains the seeds of its overthrow.  Every hegemony comes to an end.  Evolutionary history is no different…The faster you run, the more the world moves with you and the less progress you make.  Life is a chess tournament in which if you win a game, you start the next game with the handicap of a missing pawn.”</em>\r\nThe author then brings this analogy into the financial markets: <em>“Just like the evolutionary arms race that Ridley describes, there is an investors arms race going on as well.  Once an investor finds an edge, it is only a matter of time until others figure out that edge and start copying it.  Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) learned this lesson the hard way as explained by Sebastian Mallaby in More Money Than God:</em>\r\n<em>‘Even though Long-Term shrouded itself in secrecy, routing its trades through multiple brokers so that none of them could understand its bets, an army of imitators had pierced together much of its strategy.  The upshot was that LTCM’s large portfolio was mirrored by an even larger superportfolio created by its disciples, meaning that LTCM’s trades were monstrously crowded.’</em>\r\n<em>These mirrored trades were partially what led to LTCM’s demise when it couldn’t exit its positions without causing markets to tumble.  What had worked for LTCM for years suddenly stop working.”</em>\r\nSo what implications does this theory for investors like you and me? The answer it would appear is:<em> “…any complex, adaptive system like the stock market will continue to evolve based on the decisions made by its many participants.</em>\r\n<em>This is why investing will never be easy.  Because if it was, then other investors would arbitrage any such easy return streams until it wasn’t easy anymore.  This explains why “buy the dip” will continue to work in this relentless bull market…until it doesn’t.  Or why gaining more information is advantageous until everyone else has that information as well.  Back and forth.  Back and forth...</em>\r\n<em>To echo what my colleague Michael Batnick recently asked, “Why should you get reward with no risk?”</em>\r\n<em>If the Red Queen has taught you anything, it should be that you (and your assets) will never be safe.  No advantage will persist forever….Because you have to earn your keep.  You have to be disciplined.  You have to work hard and keep working hard to hold onto your lead.  Because if it was handed to you, it will be taken back in time.  The Red Queen guarantees it.  So never stop running and make sure you earn it.”</em>', 'The Red Queen of Investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-red-queen-of-investing', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:08:22', '2019-11-06 09:08:22', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1645', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1646, 1, '2019-09-01 13:33:58', '2019-09-01 13:33:58', 'The author is yet another high-quality writer from the Ritholtz stable and he has produced a really interesting piece of how trading, like other aspects of life, has gradually become an arms race. He begins by using Darwin’s theory of evolution to lay out the basic concept: <em>“Darwin is in the Galápagos Islands when he notices something peculiar about the various finches living there.  Each finch species had a different kind of beak.  On some of the islands the beaks were small, while on others they were large.  Some were pointy and some were smooth.</em>\r\n<em>As Darwin continued to observe the finches, he realized that their beaks were well suited for acquiring food on their particular island of residence.  It was as if the finches had adapted their beaks to fit their environment…Evolution by natural selection was born…However, by focusing solely on mother nature we miss half the story.  Because evolution isn’t just about adapting to the environment.  It’s also about adapting to the other players in that environment. </em><strong><em> We don’t just evolve to face the elements, we also evolve to face each other.</em></strong><em>”</em>\r\nThe author then highlights a book by Matt Ridley which expands on the point highlighted in bold font. <em>“This is the critical point made by Matt Ridley in The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature.  In the book, Ridley argues that there is an evolutionary arms race between predators and prey, parasites and hosts, and even males and females.  This ongoing conflict implies, as Ridley suggests, that “the struggle for existence never gets easier.”  As Ridley states in his book:</em>\r\n<em>One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage.  Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention.  Every success contains the seeds of its overthrow.  Every hegemony comes to an end.  Evolutionary history is no different…The faster you run, the more the world moves with you and the less progress you make.  Life is a chess tournament in which if you win a game, you start the next game with the handicap of a missing pawn.”</em>\r\nThe author then brings this analogy into the financial markets: <em>“Just like the evolutionary arms race that Ridley describes, there is an investors arms race going on as well.  Once an investor finds an edge, it is only a matter of time until others figure out that edge and start copying it.  Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) learned this lesson the hard way as explained by Sebastian Mallaby in More Money Than God:</em>\r\n<em>‘Even though Long-Term shrouded itself in secrecy, routing its trades through multiple brokers so that none of them could understand its bets, an army of imitators had pierced together much of its strategy.  The upshot was that LTCM’s large portfolio was mirrored by an even larger superportfolio created by its disciples, meaning that LTCM’s trades were monstrously crowded.’</em>\r\n<em>These mirrored trades were partially what led to LTCM’s demise when it couldn’t exit its positions without causing markets to tumble.  What had worked for LTCM for years suddenly stop working.”</em>\r\nSo what implications does this theory for investors like you and me? The answer it would appear is:<em> “…any complex, adaptive system like the stock market will continue to evolve based on the decisions made by its many participants.</em>\r\n<em>This is why investing will never be easy.  Because if it was, then other investors would arbitrage any such easy return streams until it wasn’t easy anymore.  This explains why “buy the dip” will continue to work in this relentless bull market…until it doesn’t.  Or why gaining more information is advantageous until everyone else has that information as well.  Back and forth.  Back and forth...</em>\r\n<em>To echo what my colleague Michael Batnick recently asked, “Why should you get reward with no risk?”</em>\r\n<em>If the Red Queen has taught you anything, it should be that you (and your assets) will never be safe.  No advantage will persist forever….Because you have to earn your keep.  You have to be disciplined.  You have to work hard and keep working hard to hold onto your lead.  Because if it was handed to you, it will be taken back in time.  The Red Queen guarantees it.  So never stop running and make sure you earn it.”</em>', 'The Red Queen of Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1645-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:33:58', '2019-09-01 13:33:58', '', 1645, 'http://marcellus.in/1645-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1647, 1, '2019-09-01 13:35:19', '2019-09-01 13:35:19', 'Last three years have seen Elon Musk’s public perception slide from an iconoclast solving the world’s problems to borderline unhinged as his critics rise in number and intensity. Indeed, there is a common hashtag his critics use on Twitter - #TSLAQ with the first four letters being Tesla’s ticker symbol and the Q at the end which is normally used for companies delisted for bankruptcy, suggesting an eventual end game for Tesla and Musk. So, what changed for the boy wonder bordering genius who could do no wrong – from Paypal, Model S the wonder car, sending rockets to space and back to tweeting price sensitive information, smoking pot on TV, unfair corporate governance practices? Bethany Mclean looks at the events that unfolded at Solarcity which Musk eventually got Tesla to bail out in a controversial deal and suggests that could eventually go down as the beginning of the end for Musk.\r\n<em>“SolarCity was founded by two of Musk’s cousins, Lyndon and Peter Rive, who grew up with him in South Africa. Musk, who put in $10 million, was the largest shareholder and chairman of the board. The initial idea, the Rives explained, was not to be a manufacturer but rather to control the entire consumer experience of going solar, from sale to installation, thereby driving down costs. For a time, SolarCity was a hot stock, growing almost tenfold from its public offering in 2012 to its peak in early 2014.</em>\r\n<em>As is common with Musk’s ventures, SolarCity professed to be focused on changing the world. “Everything was very motivational,” says a former executive. Some workers, taking the ethos to heart, sported SolarCity tattoos.</em>\r\n<em>But the initial success of the company’s stock masked some difficult realities. SolarCity’s business model was to front the costs of installing solar panels and allow homeowners to pay over time, which created a constant need for cash. That required raising money from outside investors, often big banks, who were then entitled to the first chunk of the payments homeowners made—leaving SolarCity in a never-ending scramble to raise more debt. The real engineering that took place at SolarCity, in short, was financial, not environmental.</em>\r\n<em>On the consumer side, SolarCity was plagued by complaints about misleading sales tactics and shoddy installations. As the problems mounted, some workers began to feel manipulated by the company’s talk about being a force for good in the world. “I turned a blind eye to a lot of the silliness because of the idealism,” says one former senior employee. “I don’t know when the Rubicon was crossed, but there were micro-crossings every day.”</em>\r\n<em>…In reality, the situation was even uglier than outsiders knew. As SolarCity struggled to raise money from institutional investors, it began offering individuals a chance to buy what it called Solar Bonds. (“Now you can get paid while driving the solar revolution,” the marketing material said.) But there were few takers—so other parts of the Musk empire took up the slack. According to the shareholder lawsuit, SpaceX acquired $255 million of the bonds. Musk himself bought $75 million of them, and the Rives acquired another $38 million. To raise the cash, Musk borrowed against both Tesla and SolarCity stock, increasing his personal credit lines from $85 million to $475 million. He also used his own reputation to shore up the stock: In February 2016, when SolarCity stock plunged to its lowest level in three years, Musk bought $10 million in shares. A week later, when the news became public, the stock soared by almost 25 percent.</em>\r\n<em>At the same time, according to the shareholder lawsuit against Tesla, the company faced “significant liquidity concerns”—meaning it was running out of money. An accounting inquiry from the SEC noted that SolarCity was burning through cash—$659 million in the first quarter of 2016 alone. That February, at a Tesla board meeting, Musk proposed a solution: Tesla, he said, should acquire SolarCity.</em>\r\n<em>It was a hopelessly conflicted situation. Musk owned more than 20 percent of both SolarCity and Tesla. His brother, Kimbal, served on both boards, as did several investors, including Antonio Gracias, a close friend of Musk’s. As a judge in the shareholder lawsuit ruled, it is “reasonably conceivable” that Musk effectively controlled the Tesla board when he pushed it to acquire SolarCity. </em>\r\n<em>…three years after Tesla bought SolarCity, there are serious doubts as to whether the plant will ever fulfill its promises. The website CleanTechnica, which is mostly supportive of Musk, calls SolarCity “a disaster waiting to happen.” A potentially costly lawsuit alleges that Tesla acquired SolarCity at the expense of its own shareholders. And former employees want to know what happened to the massive subsidy Tesla received. “New York State taxpayers deserved more from a $750 million investment,” a laid-off employee named Dale Witherell wrote to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. “Tesla has done a tremendous job providing smoke and mirrors and empty promises to the area.”</em>\r\n<em>There are growing questions about SolarCity’s product, too. Last week, Walmart sued Tesla for breach of contract due to “years of gross negligence,” claiming that solar panels installed at seven of its stores went up in flames, causing millions of dollars in damage. The lawsuit, citing Tesla’s “utter incompetence,” seeks to have the company remove rooftop panels it installed at more than 240 Walmart stores.</em>\r\n<em>The controversy over SolarCity, which has dovetailed with questions about Musk’s mountain of debt and profit shortfalls, offers a window into the mind-set of America’s most outlandish and unpredictable CEO. Musk’s believers argue that the details of his ventures don’t matter: It’s the grand vision that counts. “The guy has a will to make stuff happen that is extraordinary,” says someone who worked closely with Musk. “He willed Tesla to happen. And in willing a reality into existence, he might not stick to the facts.” But in the case of SolarCity, Musk’s penchant for making promises he can’t deliver on turned out to matter a great deal—and could even pose a threat to his entire empire.”</em>', '\"He\'s Full Of Shit\": How Elon Musk Fooled Investors, Bilked Taxpayers, And Gambled Tesla To Save Solarcity', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'hes-full-of-shit-how-elon-musk-fooled-investors-bilked-taxpayers-and-gambled-tesla-to-save-solarcity', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:06:39', '2019-11-06 09:06:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1647', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1648, 1, '2019-09-01 13:35:19', '2019-09-01 13:35:19', 'Last three years have seen Elon Musk’s public perception slide from an iconoclast solving the world’s problems to borderline unhinged as his critics rise in number and intensity. Indeed, there is a common hashtag his critics use on Twitter - #TSLAQ with the first four letters being Tesla’s ticker symbol and the Q at the end which is normally used for companies delisted for bankruptcy, suggesting an eventual end game for Tesla and Musk. So, what changed for the boy wonder bordering genius who could do no wrong – from Paypal, Model S the wonder car, sending rockets to space and back to tweeting price sensitive information, smoking pot on TV, unfair corporate governance practices? Bethany Mclean looks at the events that unfolded at Solarcity which Musk eventually got Tesla to bail out in a controversial deal and suggests that could eventually go down as the beginning of the end for Musk.\r\n<em>“SolarCity was founded by two of Musk’s cousins, Lyndon and Peter Rive, who grew up with him in South Africa. Musk, who put in $10 million, was the largest shareholder and chairman of the board. The initial idea, the Rives explained, was not to be a manufacturer but rather to control the entire consumer experience of going solar, from sale to installation, thereby driving down costs. For a time, SolarCity was a hot stock, growing almost tenfold from its public offering in 2012 to its peak in early 2014.</em>\r\n<em>As is common with Musk’s ventures, SolarCity professed to be focused on changing the world. “Everything was very motivational,” says a former executive. Some workers, taking the ethos to heart, sported SolarCity tattoos.</em>\r\n<em>But the initial success of the company’s stock masked some difficult realities. SolarCity’s business model was to front the costs of installing solar panels and allow homeowners to pay over time, which created a constant need for cash. That required raising money from outside investors, often big banks, who were then entitled to the first chunk of the payments homeowners made—leaving SolarCity in a never-ending scramble to raise more debt. The real engineering that took place at SolarCity, in short, was financial, not environmental.</em>\r\n<em>On the consumer side, SolarCity was plagued by complaints about misleading sales tactics and shoddy installations. As the problems mounted, some workers began to feel manipulated by the company’s talk about being a force for good in the world. “I turned a blind eye to a lot of the silliness because of the idealism,” says one former senior employee. “I don’t know when the Rubicon was crossed, but there were micro-crossings every day.”</em>\r\n<em>…In reality, the situation was even uglier than outsiders knew. As SolarCity struggled to raise money from institutional investors, it began offering individuals a chance to buy what it called Solar Bonds. (“Now you can get paid while driving the solar revolution,” the marketing material said.) But there were few takers—so other parts of the Musk empire took up the slack. According to the shareholder lawsuit, SpaceX acquired $255 million of the bonds. Musk himself bought $75 million of them, and the Rives acquired another $38 million. To raise the cash, Musk borrowed against both Tesla and SolarCity stock, increasing his personal credit lines from $85 million to $475 million. He also used his own reputation to shore up the stock: In February 2016, when SolarCity stock plunged to its lowest level in three years, Musk bought $10 million in shares. A week later, when the news became public, the stock soared by almost 25 percent.</em>\r\n<em>At the same time, according to the shareholder lawsuit against Tesla, the company faced “significant liquidity concerns”—meaning it was running out of money. An accounting inquiry from the SEC noted that SolarCity was burning through cash—$659 million in the first quarter of 2016 alone. That February, at a Tesla board meeting, Musk proposed a solution: Tesla, he said, should acquire SolarCity.</em>\r\n<em>It was a hopelessly conflicted situation. Musk owned more than 20 percent of both SolarCity and Tesla. His brother, Kimbal, served on both boards, as did several investors, including Antonio Gracias, a close friend of Musk’s. As a judge in the shareholder lawsuit ruled, it is “reasonably conceivable” that Musk effectively controlled the Tesla board when he pushed it to acquire SolarCity. </em>\r\n<em>…three years after Tesla bought SolarCity, there are serious doubts as to whether the plant will ever fulfill its promises. The website CleanTechnica, which is mostly supportive of Musk, calls SolarCity “a disaster waiting to happen.” A potentially costly lawsuit alleges that Tesla acquired SolarCity at the expense of its own shareholders. And former employees want to know what happened to the massive subsidy Tesla received. “New York State taxpayers deserved more from a $750 million investment,” a laid-off employee named Dale Witherell wrote to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. “Tesla has done a tremendous job providing smoke and mirrors and empty promises to the area.”</em>\r\n<em>There are growing questions about SolarCity’s product, too. Last week, Walmart sued Tesla for breach of contract due to “years of gross negligence,” claiming that solar panels installed at seven of its stores went up in flames, causing millions of dollars in damage. The lawsuit, citing Tesla’s “utter incompetence,” seeks to have the company remove rooftop panels it installed at more than 240 Walmart stores.</em>\r\n<em>The controversy over SolarCity, which has dovetailed with questions about Musk’s mountain of debt and profit shortfalls, offers a window into the mind-set of America’s most outlandish and unpredictable CEO. Musk’s believers argue that the details of his ventures don’t matter: It’s the grand vision that counts. “The guy has a will to make stuff happen that is extraordinary,” says someone who worked closely with Musk. “He willed Tesla to happen. And in willing a reality into existence, he might not stick to the facts.” But in the case of SolarCity, Musk’s penchant for making promises he can’t deliver on turned out to matter a great deal—and could even pose a threat to his entire empire.”</em>', '\"He\'s Full Of Shit\": How Elon Musk Fooled Investors, Bilked Taxpayers, And Gambled Tesla To Save Solarcity', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1647-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:35:19', '2019-09-01 13:35:19', '', 1647, 'http://marcellus.in/1647-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1649, 1, '2019-09-01 13:36:25', '2019-09-01 13:36:25', 'In his refreshingly positive book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=432f5cd8d5&amp;e=5648501957\">Factfulness</a>, Dr Hans Rosling talked about how people across the world are living longer with average life expectancy globally now at 72yrs rising up form 60yrs in 1973. This trend was true for the United States as well until recently when it has started to decline. It turns out that Dr Rosling like most of us was also misled by statistical averages which masked the long declining trend of life expectancy for the American poor. <em>“Perhaps the starkest measure of the failure of our economic policies is that the average American’s life expectancy is in decline, as inequalities of wealth have become inequalities of health. Life expectancy rose for the wealthiest 20 percent of Americans between 1980 and 2010. Over the same three decades, life expectancy declined for the poorest 20 percent of Americans. Shockingly, the difference in average life expectancy between poor and wealthy women widened from 3.9 years to 13.6 years” </em>says Binyamin Appelbaum in this essay which is adapted from this forthcoming book “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aeb9abd107&amp;e=5648501957\">The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets and the Fracture of Society</a>”. Appelbaum attributes the rise in income inequalities now reflecting in rather diverging trends in health to the rise in economists\' role in policymaking over the past five decades, especially their  willful indifference towards distribution of prosperity. He notes that until 1968 economists had little role in policymaking.\r\n<em>“In the early 1950s, a young economist named Paul Volcker worked as a human calculator in an office deep inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He crunched numbers for the people who made decisions, and he told his wife that he saw little chance of ever moving up. The central bank’s leadership included bankers, lawyers and an Iowa hog farmer, but not a single economist. The Fed’s chairman, a former stockbroker named William McChesney Martin, once told a visitor that he kept a small staff of economists in the basement of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. They were in the building, he said, because they asked good questions. They were in the basement because “they don’t know their own limitations.”</em>\r\n<em>Martin’s distaste for economists was widely shared among the midcentury American elite. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt dismissed John Maynard Keynes, the most important economist of his generation, as an impractical “mathematician.” President Eisenhower, in his farewell address, urged Americans to keep technocrats from power. Congress rarely consulted economists; regulatory agencies were led and staffed by lawyers; courts wrote off economic evidence as irrelevant.”</em>\r\nFrom 1969, they began to influence policy making, first with rationalising the administration of policy and then to setting policy goals as well. Much of it was towards the development of free markets driving deregulation across industries and reduction in the role of the government. But it is their lack of appreciation of the threats to inequality that Appelbaum laments.\r\n\r\n<em>“Although nature tends toward entropy, they (economists) shared a confidence that markets tend toward equilibrium. They agreed that the primary goal of economic policy was to increase the dollar value of the nation’s output. And they had little patience for efforts to limit inequality. Charles L. Schultze, the chairman of Mr. Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in the early 1980s that economists should fight for efficient policies “even when the result is significant income losses for particular groups — which it almost always is.” A generation later, in 2004, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas warned against any revival of efforts to reduce inequality. “Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution.”...</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….The market economy remains one of humankind’s most awesome inventions, a powerful machine for the creation of wealth. But the measure of a society is the quality of life throughout the pyramid, not just at the top, and a growing body of research shows that those born at the bottom today have less chance than in earlier generations to achieve prosperity or to contribute to society’s general welfare — even if they are rich by historical standards.</em>\r\n<em>This is not just bad for those who suffer, although surely that is bad enough. It is bad for affluent Americans, too. When wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few, studies show, total consumption declines and investment lags. Corporations and wealthy households increasingly resemble Scrooge McDuck, sitting on piles of money they can’t use productively.</em>\r\n<em>Willful indifference to the distribution of prosperity over the last half century is an important reason the very survival of liberal democracy is now being tested by nationalist demagogues. I have no special insight into how long the rope can hold, or how much weight it can bear. But I know our shared bonds will last longer if we can find ways to reduce the strain”</em>', 'Blame Economists for the Mess We’re In', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'blame-economists-for-the-mess-were-in', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:41:45', '2019-11-05 12:41:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1649', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1650, 1, '2019-09-01 13:36:25', '2019-09-01 13:36:25', 'In his refreshingly positive book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=432f5cd8d5&amp;e=5648501957\">Factfulness</a>, Dr Hans Rosling talked about how people across the world are living longer with average life expectancy globally now at 72yrs rising up form 60yrs in 1973. This trend was true for the United States as well until recently when it has started to decline. It turns out that Dr Rosling like most of us was also misled by statistical averages which masked the long declining trend of life expectancy for the American poor. <em>“Perhaps the starkest measure of the failure of our economic policies is that the average American’s life expectancy is in decline, as inequalities of wealth have become inequalities of health. Life expectancy rose for the wealthiest 20 percent of Americans between 1980 and 2010. Over the same three decades, life expectancy declined for the poorest 20 percent of Americans. Shockingly, the difference in average life expectancy between poor and wealthy women widened from 3.9 years to 13.6 years” </em>says Binyamin Appelbaum in this essay which is adapted from this forthcoming book “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aeb9abd107&amp;e=5648501957\">The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets and the Fracture of Society</a>”. Appelbaum attributes the rise in income inequalities now reflecting in rather diverging trends in health to the rise in economists\' role in policymaking over the past five decades, especially their  willful indifference towards distribution of prosperity. He notes that until 1968 economists had little role in policymaking.\r\n<em>“In the early 1950s, a young economist named Paul Volcker worked as a human calculator in an office deep inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He crunched numbers for the people who made decisions, and he told his wife that he saw little chance of ever moving up. The central bank’s leadership included bankers, lawyers and an Iowa hog farmer, but not a single economist. The Fed’s chairman, a former stockbroker named William McChesney Martin, once told a visitor that he kept a small staff of economists in the basement of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. They were in the building, he said, because they asked good questions. They were in the basement because “they don’t know their own limitations.”</em>\r\n<em>Martin’s distaste for economists was widely shared among the midcentury American elite. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt dismissed John Maynard Keynes, the most important economist of his generation, as an impractical “mathematician.” President Eisenhower, in his farewell address, urged Americans to keep technocrats from power. Congress rarely consulted economists; regulatory agencies were led and staffed by lawyers; courts wrote off economic evidence as irrelevant.”</em>\r\nFrom 1969, they began to influence policy making, first with rationalising the administration of policy and then to setting policy goals as well. Much of it was towards the development of free markets driving deregulation across industries and reduction in the role of the government. But it is their lack of appreciation of the threats to inequality that Appelbaum laments.\r\n\r\n<em>“Although nature tends toward entropy, they (economists) shared a confidence that markets tend toward equilibrium. They agreed that the primary goal of economic policy was to increase the dollar value of the nation’s output. And they had little patience for efforts to limit inequality. Charles L. Schultze, the chairman of Mr. Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in the early 1980s that economists should fight for efficient policies “even when the result is significant income losses for particular groups — which it almost always is.” A generation later, in 2004, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas warned against any revival of efforts to reduce inequality. “Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution.”...</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….The market economy remains one of humankind’s most awesome inventions, a powerful machine for the creation of wealth. But the measure of a society is the quality of life throughout the pyramid, not just at the top, and a growing body of research shows that those born at the bottom today have less chance than in earlier generations to achieve prosperity or to contribute to society’s general welfare — even if they are rich by historical standards.</em>\r\n<em>This is not just bad for those who suffer, although surely that is bad enough. It is bad for affluent Americans, too. When wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few, studies show, total consumption declines and investment lags. Corporations and wealthy households increasingly resemble Scrooge McDuck, sitting on piles of money they can’t use productively.</em>\r\n<em>Willful indifference to the distribution of prosperity over the last half century is an important reason the very survival of liberal democracy is now being tested by nationalist demagogues. I have no special insight into how long the rope can hold, or how much weight it can bear. But I know our shared bonds will last longer if we can find ways to reduce the strain”</em>', 'Blame Economists for the Mess We’re In', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1649-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:36:25', '2019-09-01 13:36:25', '', 1649, 'http://marcellus.in/1649-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1651, 1, '2019-09-01 13:37:36', '2019-09-01 13:37:36', 'My colleagues Saurabh Mukherjea and Rakshit Ranjan co-authored a book titled <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fa36e1ead6&amp;e=5648501957\">Coffee Can Investing</a> with a subtitle - “The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth”. In this blog, Justin Carbonneau of Validea brings out a similar  essence from the book <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa3b769ab5&amp;e=5648501957\">High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox</a></em>, authored by Robeco fund managers Pim van Vliet and Jan de Koning, whose research with long term data support highlights this paradox in the stock market. Popular belief is that investors seek an appropriate reward for the risk they are willing to take and hence to generate higher returns one needs to take higher risk. The authors demonstrate that indeed it is possible to generate higher returns with low volatility. Van Vliet’s multi-factor model overlays a momentum and quality factor over the original low volatility universe.\r\nIn this month’s <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=caedffc980&amp;e=5648501957\">newsletter</a>, we explain why Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio has been resilient through the recent bout of market weakness (the portfolio is up 5.8% in August vs Nifty’s -0.9% and is up 10.6% in the past six months vs Nifty’s 2.1%) – our portfolio’s weighted avg earnings grew 17% vs Nifty’s 1.8%. It also explains how our portfolio companies’ manage to sustain these earnings despite the macro slowdown – because these companies produce goods and services which are essential to the common man. That in effect is one of three parts to our investment philosophy of reducing volatility: First, look for companies with clean accounting and governance – hence avoid fraud risk. Second, prefer companies which make essential products, thereby reducing demand risk. Finally, look for deep competitive moats, which alleviate risks to profitability.\r\n<em>“Van Vliet developed a factor-based model that combines three relatively simple investment criteria – volatility, momentum and net buyback yield. This is what he calls a “conservative formula” for stock selection.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Volatility</strong></em><em>: The investable universe (the 1,000 largest companies by market cap) is separated into two groups. The 500 least volatile stocks are eligible for inclusion in the model, while the 500 most volatile are ineligible. Volatility is define by the 3 year standard deviation of returns for each security in the universe.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Momentum</strong></em><em>: Stocks with higher momentum are rewarded in the model. Academic studies have shown momentum tends to persist in the intermediate term, but mean revert in the short-term and long-term. As a result, stocks are ranked based on their one year momentum, excluding the most recent month.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Net Payout Yield: </strong></em><em>Net payout yield, which is the sum of the dividend yield and the share buyback yield, partly capture the value and quality premium in stocks. The higher the net payout yield the better.</em>\r\n<em>The stocks that passed the initial volatility test are ranked by the other two factors, and then a combined rank is calculated. The stocks with the best combination of momentum and net payout yield get the highest scores.</em>\r\n<em>…From 1929 to 2016, the top 100 conservative stocks selected using the factors mentioned above produced an annualized return of 15.1% compared to 9.3% for the overall market and 2.1% for the most speculative stock cohort. The conservative and speculative portfolios were made up of the 100 top ranked stocks, rebalanced quarterly. The outperformance is not just limited to the US market, as the conservative formula also produced alpha generating results in different markets, including Europe, Japan and Emerging markets.”</em>', 'Long Term Compounding Using Low Volatility & Other Fundamental Factors', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'long-term-compounding-using-low-volatility-other-fundamental-factors', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:24:54', '2019-11-05 12:24:54', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1651', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1652, 1, '2019-09-01 13:37:36', '2019-09-01 13:37:36', 'My colleagues Saurabh Mukherjea and Rakshit Ranjan co-authored a book titled <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fa36e1ead6&amp;e=5648501957\">Coffee Can Investing</a> with a subtitle - “The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth”. In this blog, Justin Carbonneau of Validea brings out a similar  essence from the book <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa3b769ab5&amp;e=5648501957\">High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox</a></em>, authored by Robeco fund managers Pim van Vliet and Jan de Koning, whose research with long term data support highlights this paradox in the stock market. Popular belief is that investors seek an appropriate reward for the risk they are willing to take and hence to generate higher returns one needs to take higher risk. The authors demonstrate that indeed it is possible to generate higher returns with low volatility. Van Vliet’s multi-factor model overlays a momentum and quality factor over the original low volatility universe.\r\nIn this month’s <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=caedffc980&amp;e=5648501957\">newsletter</a>, we explain why Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio has been resilient through the recent bout of market weakness (the portfolio is up 5.8% in August vs Nifty’s -0.9% and is up 10.6% in the past six months vs Nifty’s 2.1%) – our portfolio’s weighted avg earnings grew 17% vs Nifty’s 1.8%. It also explains how our portfolio companies’ manage to sustain these earnings despite the macro slowdown – because these companies produce goods and services which are essential to the common man. That in effect is one of three parts to our investment philosophy of reducing volatility: First, look for companies with clean accounting and governance – hence avoid fraud risk. Second, prefer companies which make essential products, thereby reducing demand risk. Finally, look for deep competitive moats, which alleviate risks to profitability.\r\n<em>“Van Vliet developed a factor-based model that combines three relatively simple investment criteria – volatility, momentum and net buyback yield. This is what he calls a “conservative formula” for stock selection.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Volatility</strong></em><em>: The investable universe (the 1,000 largest companies by market cap) is separated into two groups. The 500 least volatile stocks are eligible for inclusion in the model, while the 500 most volatile are ineligible. Volatility is define by the 3 year standard deviation of returns for each security in the universe.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Momentum</strong></em><em>: Stocks with higher momentum are rewarded in the model. Academic studies have shown momentum tends to persist in the intermediate term, but mean revert in the short-term and long-term. As a result, stocks are ranked based on their one year momentum, excluding the most recent month.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Net Payout Yield: </strong></em><em>Net payout yield, which is the sum of the dividend yield and the share buyback yield, partly capture the value and quality premium in stocks. The higher the net payout yield the better.</em>\r\n<em>The stocks that passed the initial volatility test are ranked by the other two factors, and then a combined rank is calculated. The stocks with the best combination of momentum and net payout yield get the highest scores.</em>\r\n<em>…From 1929 to 2016, the top 100 conservative stocks selected using the factors mentioned above produced an annualized return of 15.1% compared to 9.3% for the overall market and 2.1% for the most speculative stock cohort. The conservative and speculative portfolios were made up of the 100 top ranked stocks, rebalanced quarterly. The outperformance is not just limited to the US market, as the conservative formula also produced alpha generating results in different markets, including Europe, Japan and Emerging markets.”</em>', 'Long Term Compounding Using Low Volatility & Other Fundamental Factors', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1651-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:37:36', '2019-09-01 13:37:36', '', 1651, 'http://marcellus.in/1651-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1653, 1, '2019-09-01 13:38:36', '2019-09-01 13:38:36', 'Most of the press around autonomous vehicles focuses on cars and yet it is in trucking that the most commercially viable advances in autonomous driving are being made. Last week we learnt that: <em>“The self-driving freight truck startup TuSimple has been carrying mail across the state of Arizona for several weeks.</em>\r\n<em>UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.”</em>\r\nIn parallel, UPS and TuSimple have also announced <em>“a two-week pilot program to deliver mail between Phoenix and Dallas, a 1,000 mile trip.”</em>\r\nIf successful, autonomous trucks could cut the cost of moving cargo in America: <em>“TuSimple claims it can cut the average cost of shipping in a tractor-trailer by 30 percent.”</em>', 'UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ups-has-been-delivering-cargo-in-self-driving-trucks-for-months-and-no-one-knew', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:22:13', '2019-11-05 12:22:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1653', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1654, 1, '2019-09-01 13:38:36', '2019-09-01 13:38:36', 'Most of the press around autonomous vehicles focuses on cars and yet it is in trucking that the most commercially viable advances in autonomous driving are being made. Last week we learnt that: <em>“The self-driving freight truck startup TuSimple has been carrying mail across the state of Arizona for several weeks.</em>\r\n<em>UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.”</em>\r\nIn parallel, UPS and TuSimple have also announced <em>“a two-week pilot program to deliver mail between Phoenix and Dallas, a 1,000 mile trip.”</em>\r\nIf successful, autonomous trucks could cut the cost of moving cargo in America: <em>“TuSimple claims it can cut the average cost of shipping in a tractor-trailer by 30 percent.”</em>', 'UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:38:36', '2019-09-01 13:38:36', '', 1653, 'http://marcellus.in/1653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1655, 1, '2019-09-01 13:39:45', '2019-09-01 13:39:45', 'Last Sunday was yet another super Sunday for sport. India got its latest world champion in PV Sindhu who finally came won the World Badminton Championships after agonisingly coming second best in the previous two editions. Then Ben Stokes single-handedly pulled off a miraculous victory to keep the English in contention for the Ashes. Finally, in less dramatic fashion but yet very meaningful, the Indian fast bowlers demolished the West Indies batting line up through sheer pace as if the world had come a full circle from the times that Caribbean pacers terrorised the cricketing world from the 60’s to the 90’s. All stories of glory and will surely be remembered years down the line. However, this piece by Rohit Brijnath is about those sportspersons who will be forgotten but have also attained glory in their own right. Right after super Sunday, a young Indian – Sumit Nagal was playing his first Grand Slam at the US Open, taking on Roger Federer in the first round. He managed to grab a set and an encouraging comment from the legend “….(Sumit) has a solid future”. Whether Nagal goes on to achieve greater feats or not, Brijnath’s piece is an ode to all those sportspersons who have contributed to sport without getting the same adulation as the stars yet have done so for the sheer love of sport.\r\n<em>“….we were talking about the forgotten, the unheralded athletes who fill the lanes and the ranking tables, the luckless and the dreamers, the so-close and the will-be, all mainly housed on the outskirts of fame.</em>\r\n<em>Like Benjamin Pietri, 23, ranked No.1,079 on the ATP Tour, earnings $2,904 (around ₹2.07 lakh) this year, no picture available as if he’s faceless, accompanied by the words: “Unfortunately, we do not currently have any bio information for this player.\"</em>\r\n<em>Some athletes are forever almost-theres. But many do get there, to a place precious to them, to a first round in a Grand Slam, into a Ranji Trophy team, into an Olympics, earning a single national cap. Places that watchers tend to dismiss, places that people are snobbish about—“kitna Test khela?\" (How many Test matches has he played?) is Indian sport’s most unpleasant phrase—but places that are so hard to get to.</em>\r\n<em>…..And these athletes, on the margins looking in, whom you see walking behind the champion who is being interviewed on camera, whom no one stops for a selfie, are in fact the best interviewees, because they are shorn of ego, because they have a story and no one’s ever asked it.</em>\r\n<em>And it’s an education to hang out with them, at practice, around changing rooms. One of the many reasons I admire journalist Sharda Ugra’s work is because she spent so much time just listening to Ranji Trophy players, spending long days in a time before mobile phones, understanding through them the viscera of sport, the small triumphs, the dusty dreams, the workings of the game.</em>\r\n<em>Who sustains sport? In this over-worshipping time, we would say Serena Williams, Lionel Messi, Virat Kohli. But, really, it’s these people, the ones who contest the heats, who want one chance to play Federer, who share rooms on tour and load up on free breakfasts, who never ride on private jets but still don’t quit, who might be the pride of their small town because no one from there ever went so far, who, well, love sport even if it doesn’t always love them back.</em>\r\n<em>Last year at the Asian Games, I wrote about Aishath Sausan, a cheerful mother from the Maldives who came last in the 200m backstroke but set a new national record. I emailed her this week and she, 31, told me she still trains in an ocean pool in the Maldives where eels appear, and sometimes garbage, because all she wants, just one time, is to get to the Olympics.</em>\r\n<em>She told me she had been swimming since she was 9 and in a life of studies, marriage, two children and a five-year break, had never got to a Games. “So,\" she wrote about the Tokyo Olympics next year, “(I’m) really, really hoping that I could achieve my biggest dream this time.\" Even in the flat, unfeeling typeface of an email you can feel her desperation.</em>\r\n<em>This August, Sausan went to the World Championships and finished 44th out of 48 competitors in the 50m backstroke, but she set another national record. An irrelevant statistic to you, but everything to her. When it mattered, she had found her best.”</em>', 'Athletes on the outskirts of fame', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'athletes-on-the-outskirts-of-fame', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:19:58', '2019-11-05 12:19:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1655', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1656, 1, '2019-09-01 13:39:45', '2019-09-01 13:39:45', 'Last Sunday was yet another super Sunday for sport. India got its latest world champion in PV Sindhu who finally came won the World Badminton Championships after agonisingly coming second best in the previous two editions. Then Ben Stokes single-handedly pulled off a miraculous victory to keep the English in contention for the Ashes. Finally, in less dramatic fashion but yet very meaningful, the Indian fast bowlers demolished the West Indies batting line up through sheer pace as if the world had come a full circle from the times that Caribbean pacers terrorised the cricketing world from the 60’s to the 90’s. All stories of glory and will surely be remembered years down the line. However, this piece by Rohit Brijnath is about those sportspersons who will be forgotten but have also attained glory in their own right. Right after super Sunday, a young Indian – Sumit Nagal was playing his first Grand Slam at the US Open, taking on Roger Federer in the first round. He managed to grab a set and an encouraging comment from the legend “….(Sumit) has a solid future”. Whether Nagal goes on to achieve greater feats or not, Brijnath’s piece is an ode to all those sportspersons who have contributed to sport without getting the same adulation as the stars yet have done so for the sheer love of sport.\r\n<em>“….we were talking about the forgotten, the unheralded athletes who fill the lanes and the ranking tables, the luckless and the dreamers, the so-close and the will-be, all mainly housed on the outskirts of fame.</em>\r\n<em>Like Benjamin Pietri, 23, ranked No.1,079 on the ATP Tour, earnings $2,904 (around ₹2.07 lakh) this year, no picture available as if he’s faceless, accompanied by the words: “Unfortunately, we do not currently have any bio information for this player.\"</em>\r\n<em>Some athletes are forever almost-theres. But many do get there, to a place precious to them, to a first round in a Grand Slam, into a Ranji Trophy team, into an Olympics, earning a single national cap. Places that watchers tend to dismiss, places that people are snobbish about—“kitna Test khela?\" (How many Test matches has he played?) is Indian sport’s most unpleasant phrase—but places that are so hard to get to.</em>\r\n<em>…..And these athletes, on the margins looking in, whom you see walking behind the champion who is being interviewed on camera, whom no one stops for a selfie, are in fact the best interviewees, because they are shorn of ego, because they have a story and no one’s ever asked it.</em>\r\n<em>And it’s an education to hang out with them, at practice, around changing rooms. One of the many reasons I admire journalist Sharda Ugra’s work is because she spent so much time just listening to Ranji Trophy players, spending long days in a time before mobile phones, understanding through them the viscera of sport, the small triumphs, the dusty dreams, the workings of the game.</em>\r\n<em>Who sustains sport? In this over-worshipping time, we would say Serena Williams, Lionel Messi, Virat Kohli. But, really, it’s these people, the ones who contest the heats, who want one chance to play Federer, who share rooms on tour and load up on free breakfasts, who never ride on private jets but still don’t quit, who might be the pride of their small town because no one from there ever went so far, who, well, love sport even if it doesn’t always love them back.</em>\r\n<em>Last year at the Asian Games, I wrote about Aishath Sausan, a cheerful mother from the Maldives who came last in the 200m backstroke but set a new national record. I emailed her this week and she, 31, told me she still trains in an ocean pool in the Maldives where eels appear, and sometimes garbage, because all she wants, just one time, is to get to the Olympics.</em>\r\n<em>She told me she had been swimming since she was 9 and in a life of studies, marriage, two children and a five-year break, had never got to a Games. “So,\" she wrote about the Tokyo Olympics next year, “(I’m) really, really hoping that I could achieve my biggest dream this time.\" Even in the flat, unfeeling typeface of an email you can feel her desperation.</em>\r\n<em>This August, Sausan went to the World Championships and finished 44th out of 48 competitors in the 50m backstroke, but she set another national record. An irrelevant statistic to you, but everything to her. When it mattered, she had found her best.”</em>', 'Athletes on the outskirts of fame', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1655-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-01 13:39:45', '2019-09-01 13:39:45', '', 1655, 'http://marcellus.in/1655-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1905, 1, '2019-10-07 04:55:42', '2019-10-07 04:55:42', '', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'learning-from-great-investigative-writers-4', '', '', '2019-10-07 04:55:42', '2019-10-07 04:55:42', '', 1659, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Learning-from-Great-Investigative-Writers-2.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1906, 1, '2019-10-07 04:56:33', '2019-10-07 04:56:33', '', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'learning-from-great-investigative-writers-5', '', '', '2019-10-07 04:56:33', '2019-10-07 04:56:33', '', 1659, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Learning-from-Great-Investigative-Writers-3.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1907, 1, '2019-10-07 04:58:05', '2019-10-07 04:58:05', '', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'learning-from-great-investigative-writers-6', '', '', '2019-10-07 04:58:05', '2019-10-07 04:58:05', '', 1659, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Learning-from-Great-Investigative-Writers-4.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1908, 1, '2019-10-07 05:03:11', '2019-10-07 05:03:11', '', 'new product page', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:03:11', '2019-10-07 05:03:11', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1909, 1, '2019-10-07 05:06:30', '2019-10-07 05:06:30', '', 'new product page', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:06:30', '2019-10-07 05:06:30', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1910, 1, '2019-10-07 05:09:21', '2019-10-07 05:09:21', 'Marcellus Investment Managers in December 2018 launched a PMS strategy – Consistent Compounders to invest in a concentrated portfolio of heavily moated companies that can drive healthy earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n<ul>         Portfolio construction involves a two stage process:</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>1. a filter based approach to create an investible universe of 30-35 stocks</li>\r\n 	<li>2. in-depth bottom-up research of such companies in the universe to assess sustainable competitive moats</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nto build a portfolio of 10-20 stocks that deliver healthy compounded earnings growth over long periods of time.\r\n\r\nSuch a portfolio is monitored for sustainability of moats on a continuous basis through extensive primary research.\r\n\r\nRepeating the filters annually helps keep the investible universe updated and also such a universe is continuously researched for developing or strengthening of moats to augment the portfolio.\r\n\r\nWe are happy to offer this with ZERO entry load or exit load without any lock in. The fee options include a performance based fee option with no fixed fees. For more information, <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Apr-2019.pdf\">click here.</a>\r\n\r\nIf you would like our representative to reach out to you, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here</a>.', 'Products - old', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:09:21', '2019-10-07 05:09:21', '', 634, 'http://marcellus.in/634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1911, 1, '2019-10-07 05:09:50', '2019-10-07 05:09:50', '', 'Product', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:09:50', '2019-10-07 05:09:50', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1915, 1, '2019-10-07 05:12:09', '2019-10-07 05:12:09', '', 'Invest With Us', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'invest-with-us-2', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:12:09', '2019-10-07 05:12:09', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?p=1915', 4, 'nav_menu_item', '', 0),
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(1917, 1, '2019-10-07 05:15:42', '2019-10-07 05:15:42', '', 'Products', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 05:15:42', '2019-10-07 05:15:42', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2264, 1, '2019-11-08 12:18:57', '2019-11-08 12:18:57', 'Diamonds were formed deep inside the bowels of Planet Earth billions of years ago. “As the edges of Earth’s tectonic plates plunged down into the upper mantle, bits of carbon, some likely hailing from long-dead life forms were melted and compressed into rigid lattices. Over millions of years, those lattices grew into the most durable, dazzling gems the planet had ever cooked up. And every so often, for reasons scientists still don’t fully understand, an eruption would send a stash of these stones rocketing to the surface inside a bubbly magma known as kimberlite. There, the diamonds would remain, nestled in the kimberlite volcanoes that delivered them from their fiery home, until humans evolved, learned of their existence, and began to dig them up.”\r\nHowever, diamond mining scars the earth. Hence, some diamond seekers have turned to lab-grown diamonds. “These gems aren’t simulants or synthetic substitutes; they are optically, chemically, and physically identical to their Earth-mined counterparts. They’re also cheaper, and in theory, limitless. The arrival of lab-grown diamonds has rocked the jewelry world to its core and prompted fierce pushback from diamond miners.”\r\nThe lab-grown diamond industry is about to take-off: “Today, that sector is taking off. The International Grown Diamond Association (IGDA), a trade group formed in 2016 by a dozen lab diamond growers and sellers, now has about 50 members, according to IGDA secretary general Dick Garard. When the IGDA first formed, lab-grown diamonds were estimated to represent about 1 percent of a $14 billion rough diamond market. This year, industry analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates they account for 2-3 percent of the market. He expects that share will only continue to grow as factories in China that already produce millions of carats a year for industrial purposes start to see an opportunity in jewelry.”\r\nAs a result, the establishment is not just waking up and taking notice, it is blessing lab-grown diamonds: “In the summer, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) reversed decades of guidance when it expanded the definition of a diamond to include those created in labs and dropped ‘synthetic’ as a recommended descriptor for lab-grown stones. The decision came on the heels of the world’s top diamond producer, De Beers, announcing the launch of its own lab-grown diamond line, Lightbox…”\r\nNow, here comes the problem for you and me – the lab-grown diamonds are virtually indistinguishable from the natural diamonds and that creates a real risk that any diamonds we have might lose their value: “And while lab-grown diamonds boast the same sparkle as their Earthly counterparts, they do so at a significant discount. Zimnisky said that today, your typical one carat, medium quality diamond grown in a lab will sell for about $3,600, compared with $6,100 for its Earth-mined counterpart—a discount of about 40 percent. Two years ago, that discount was only 18 percent. And while the price drop has “slightly tapered off” as Zimnisky put it, he expects it will fall further thanks in part to the aforementioned ramp up in Chinese production, as well as technological improvements. …Zimnisky said that if the price falls too fast, it could devalue lab-grown diamonds in the eyes of consumers.”', 'Beyond the Hype of Lab-Grown Diamonds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1333-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:18:57', '2019-11-08 12:18:57', '', 1333, 'https://marcellus.in/1333-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1918, 1, '2019-10-07 08:54:59', '2019-10-07 08:54:59', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the Indian economy. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - Consistent Compounders PMS is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 08:54:59', '2019-10-07 08:54:59', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1924, 1, '2019-10-07 11:40:41', '2019-10-07 11:40:41', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-07 11:40:41', '2019-10-07 11:40:41', '', 15, 'http://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1925, 1, '2019-10-08 05:09:58', '2019-10-08 05:09:58', '<em>Published on: 8th October, 2019</em>\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"wp-image-1926 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/veghese-194x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"215\" height=\"333\" /></p>\r\n<strong>Simon Sinek’s latest book ‘The Infinite Game’ should be celebrated as a breath of fresh air in the futile discourse around the rightful purpose of capitalism. In that context, one of India’s greatest sons – the late Verghese Kurien, the man who made Amul a powerhouse - deserves to be lauded as the greatest player of the ‘Infinite Game’. We can learn from Sinek &amp; Kurien about how ‘just cause’ lie at the heart of great enterprises.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“…he was the man who revolutionised milk production in India, transforming the country from a milk-deficient place to the world’s largest producer (with 17% of the global total), and along the way drawing millions of rural farmers out of poverty…Few others had his tenacity, his drive, his sheer bloody-mindedness, to get government ministers and foot-dragging babus to yield to his ideas. No village panchayat, no landowner, no grasping corporatist, stood for long in his way. One minister of agriculture tried to remove him from the National Dairy Development Board, of which he was founder-chairman for 33 years; instead, the minister lost his own job. The saying in Delhi was, “Don’t touch Kurien.” Once engaged in a knuckle-banging argument, he never gave in; and he never gave in, of course, because he was right.” –</em><strong> The Economist’s obituary on Verghese Kurien, 22 September 2012 </strong>(source: <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/obituary/2012/09/22/verghese-kurien\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.economist.com/obituary/2012/09/22/verghese-kurien</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>The Greatest Exponent of the Infinite Game….</strong>\r\nNine years ago Simon Sinek shot to fame with his incredibly popular <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4\">Ted Talk</a>. His books <a href=\"https://simonsinek.com/product/start-with-why/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Start With Why</a>and <a href=\"https://simonsinek.com/product/leaders-eat-last/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Leaders Eat Last </a> have been an inspiration for those looking to build businesses with purpose. In his latest book, The Infinite Game, he extends those principles for those who want to build businesses that outlast them. In an interview with Greg Thomas of Workday (see <a href=\"https://blogs.workday.com/simon-sinek-to-succeed-in–business-you-must-understand-the-game/ \" rel=\"nofollow\">https://blogs.workday.com/simon-sinek-to-succeed-in–business-you-must-understand-the-game/</a> Sinek cites the example of the Vietnamese war which the Americans lost despite winning all the battles. Sinek says <em>‘It’s not so much that America lost the war, it’s that America was fighting to win and the North Vietnamese were fighting for their lives. America didn’t lose, they ran out of the will or the resources to stay in the game and dropped out of it.</em>’ For anyone seeking to build a lasting business, it is important to distinguish the battles from the war and thus play Sinek’s infinite game.\r\n\r\nIn fact, quoting further from Sinek’s interview with Workday illustrates this point more clearly:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>“<em>There is no such thing as winning business—it doesn’t exist. We can have wins inside a business like you can have battles, but there’s no such thing as “winning” business. The problem is too many business owners, too many leaders don’t know the game they’re playing. They talk about being number one, being the best, beating their competition. Based upon what agreed-upon metrics? Based upon what agreed upon timeframes? There’s no such thing.</em>\r\n<em>When we play with a finite mindset in the infinite game, there are a few very consistent and predictable things that happen. Over the course of time, you will see a decline in trust, cooperation, and innovation. Eventually, your organization will run out of the will or the resources to stay in the game. We call it bankruptcy; we call it a merger and acquisition.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>In order to build an infinite business, you need to have several things in place. “First, you have to have a just cause. A cause so just that you would willingly sacrifice your interest to advance that cause. Second, you have to have trusting teams. It means that we work with and for people such that we can raise our hands and say, “I made a mistake or I’m scared or I have troubles at home and they’re affecting my work,” without any fear of humiliation and retribution.</em>\r\n<em>Third, you have to have a worthy rival. They reveal to us our weaknesses; that’s what makes us so uncomfortable in their presence or when their names come up. Instead of getting angry about them, try to learn what it is about them that people admire and love so much, and maybe focus that energy into working on ourselves. Self-improvement. Every day. Constantly.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, you have to have the capacity for existential flexibility. This is much bigger than the daily flexibility that we need to have in our jobs. An existential flex is the capacity to make a dramatically huge strategic shift in an entirely new direction to advance our cause.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, you have to have the courage to lead. That means the courage to say, “That’s bad for business, and I’m going to do it differently.” People may call you naïve and say you don’t understand the business. You may say they don’t understand the game they’re playing. That takes tremendous courage.</em>\r\n<em>…I’m talking about the ability to massively shift an entire business model because it’s the right thing to do to advance the movement. Why is it that the technology industry invented the electronic book, and not the publishing industry? Because publishing thought they were in the book business, not the reading business. Why is it that the movie industry and the television industry didn’t invent Netflix? It’s because companies can be so preoccupied with protecting the status quo they don’t make these existential flexes until they’re forced to, and then they’re playing defense the entire time.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>…Lived &amp; worked in Anand, Gujarat</strong>\r\nSinek’s new book isn’t available in India as yet but reading the Workday blog reminded us of Amul and the man who engineered this remarkable enterprise’s rise to glory – Verghese Kurien.\r\n\r\nBorn into an affluent Syrian Anglican family in Kerala in 1921, Kurien excelled in academics &amp; sport first in Loyola College in Chennai, then in the College of Engineering (Guindy) and, finally, in Michigan State University (where he was sent on an elite scholarship sponsored by the Government of India). Upon his return to India, in 1949 the Government sent him to work at a run-down creamery in Anand in what was then part of Bombay state and is now Gujarat.\r\n\r\nKurien hated his Government job in Anand and when he quit a few months later, Tribhuvandas Patel, a prominent political leader of local farmers, persuaded Kurien to stay and help run the Kaira District Cooperative Milk Producers\' Union Limited which came to be known popularly as Amul dairy). 25 years later this co-operative was merged into other co-operatives to create the now legendary Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd (GCMMF).\r\n\r\nArguably, the most striking example of sustained co-operation on an epic scale in India, GCMMF generated revenues in FY19 of Rs 330 billion (nearly US$5 billion). That is 3x as much as its closest competitor Nestle India’s revenues and that is only 20% shy of Hindustan Unilever’s revenues. On this measure, GCMMF is India’s second largest FMCG company.\r\n\r\nNot only is GCMMF big, it grows much faster than its rivals. Over the past decade, GCMMF has grown revenues at 17% CAGR compared to Nestle’s 10% and HUL’s 9%. Over the last five years, the growth gap between GCMMF and its two largest rivals is even bigger! In key FMCG product categories such as butter, cheese and packaged milk, Amul has been the longstanding market leader in the face of sustained efforts by MNCs to break its dominance. GCMMF is also India’s biggest exporter of dairy products.\r\n\r\nGrowth aside, the scale on which GCMMF operates is astonishing. GCMMF’s daily procurement of milk is 23 million litres from over 18,700 village milk co-operative societies (which include 3.6 million milk producer members). The way GCMMF aggregates the milk produced by over 3 million families into the village co-operative dairy and then further aggregates that into the district co-operative which in turn feeds into the mother dairy has been studied by numerous management experts.\r\n\r\nSo how does GCMMF give a fair deal to its farmers, its management team, its 10,000 dealers, its one million retailers and its hundreds of millions of customers? At the core of this pioneering co-operative’s success appear to be four factors:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Careful cultivation of brand:</strong> Its 60 year old brand with the its distinctive imagery of the little girl in the polka red dotted dress has been central to Amul\'s success. Cultivated with great effort and patience, numerous surveys has shown ‘Amul’ to be one of the most trusted brands in the country. As Kurien says in his autobiography <em>‘I Too Had a Dream’</em> (2005), <em>“…we had to make the products as attractive as possible to the market.. We sought help from advertising professionals…In 1966…the Amul account was given to the Advertising and Sales Promotion Company (ASP) with the brief that they should dislodge Polson from its ‘premier brand’ position in Bombay. That was when Eustace Fernandes of ASP created the Amul mascot – the mischievous, endearing girl. The image of the Amul girl went down so well with consumers that very soon it became synonymous with Amul….Together, the team at ASP gave Amul butter its memorable and catchy campaign tagline ‘Utterly, butterly, delicious’ – which broke all records to become the longest-running campaigns in Indian advertising history.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Sustained alignment with stakeholders’ interests: </strong>The practical concept – implemented daily in millions of homes - of a fair deal for the farmer and the linked idea of the disintermediation of the middleman. As Harish Damodaran explains in <em>‘India’s New Capitalists’</em> (2008), <em>“A farmer pouring buffalo milk with 6% fat content to a Gujarat co-operative 2004-05 would receive Rs 13-14 per litre, which is 25-30% more than the corresponding farmgate prices paid by dairies elsewhere in the country...If the electronic tester displayed in front were to show the fat content for a particular lot of milk at 8%, the milkman would be entitled to a proportionately higher prices of Rs 17-18 per litre. Taking an average rate of Rs 13, the GCMMF dairies would in 2004-05 have pumped in around Rs 2,800 core to their farm members, constituting 70% of their aggregate turnover of Rs 4,000 crore. By contrast, milk purchase costs are less than half of the value of product sales for a company like Nestle India, marking the essential difference between a farmer controlled co-operative and an investor owned concern.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Political and regulatory capture: </strong>GCMMF and Kurien were able to co-opt almost every single politician of note in independent India to help them promote the cause of Gujarati farmers. As Kurien’s autobiography shows, Sardar Patel, Tribhuvandas Patel, JL Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Morarji Desai, TT Krishnamachari, YB Chavan, Indira Gandhi - basically anybody who mattered in New Delhi or Western Indian politics was brought to Anand, wowed by the scale of the miracle in Anand and converted to the cause of promoting Amul. Kurien explains in his autobiography how he repeatedly used his political clout to hurt his competitors by getting bans, embargoes, tariffs, etc imposed on them. Eg. in 1962, upon the Indian Army’s request, Kurien stopped supplying butter to the open market and instead diverted all his output to the Army. When a rival company, Polson, took advantage of this by increasing the prices of its butter, Kurien simply went to the Government and had Polson’s butter output frozen. When Polson’s aggrieved promoter complained to the relevant Minister in Ahmedabad, Kurien told him in front of the Minister <em>“You bloody bastard. You come here and speak lies to the Minister. I will castrate you.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Calculated risk taking a consistent basis: </strong>With a clear goal of helping farmer’s earn more from their produce, Kurien repeatedly took major risks to open up new opportunities for Amul. For example, in the 1950s, in the flush season Amul’s farmers were producing twice as much as milk as was required by the Bombay market (Amul’s main market at that point). The logical thing to do was to convert this surplus into skimmed milk powder and condensed milk. However, at that point of time the received wisdom the world over was that buffalo milk – which was Amul’s main output – could not be used to make skimmed milk powder and condensed milk. In a ‘world first’ demonstration of its kind, using a machine made by L&amp;T, Kurien’s colleague and college friend, HM Dalaya, demonstrated to the Bombay Government that buffalo milk could be used to make skimmed milk powder. (Incidentally, the demo took place a couple of kilometres from Marcellus’ office in Andheri East.) A few years later, Amul made cheese from buffalo milk, another world first. Kurien’s autobiography <em>‘I Too Had a Dream’ </em>contains several examples of audacious risk taking on a pan-India including the launch of ‘Operation Flood’ in 1970 – the scheme which took the Amul model pan-India and catapulted India from a milk powder importing beggarly nation into a surplus milk exporter. (If you grew up in the India of the 1970s and 1980s, you owe your physical development to Operation Flood milk and hence to Kurien!)</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIn Sinek’s world it does not matter whether an enterprise is for-profit or not-for-profit, private sector or public sector. What matters more is over what horizon the enterprise thinks, plans and acts. If these enterprises don’t think, plan and act over very long time frames, it is ‘game over’ for them regardless of how good their staff are, how strong their competitive advantages are, how strong their balance sheet is. Furthermore, to sustain any purposeful endeavour over long periods of time, the enterprise needs to be centred around a ‘just cause’ [whether it is for-profit or otherwise is a secondary distinction because customers are not bothered about the enterprise’s profits].\r\n\r\nIn India, we find a very small number of listed enterprises have the mindset to play the infinite game. Not only are most promoters short termist, they have no cause to pursue (the two issues are obviously linked). As a result they flit from one opportunity to other whilst constant being buffeted by free market forces and being preyed upon by bankers, brokers and corporate financiers.\r\n\r\nTo quote from my 2016 bestseller ‘The Unusual Billionaires’: <em>“’Most Indian companies tend to focus on short-term results and hence that makes them frequently do things that deviate away from their articulated strategy…these deviations take them away from the path they have to travel to achieve their long term goals…the willingness to resist the temptation of short-term ‘off strategy’ profits for long-term sustainable gain is not there in most leading companies,’ writes Rama Bijapurkar, a leading market strategy consultant…The typical promoter profiled in [“<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-unusual-billionaires-flip-the-competitive-paradigm/\">The Unusual Billionaires</a>’] is patient and persevering, even bordering of the boring. He ignores short-term thrills based on flavour-of-the-month ideas. He consciously rejects aggressive forays into unrelated businesses…Such behaviour requires tremendous patience and a willingness to ignore the stock market’s proclamations regarding prevailing fads and fashions.” </em>\r\n\r\nAsian Paints, Berger Paints, Marico and HDFC Bank are amongst the companies covered in detail in “The Unusual Billionaires.” All four companies are a part of our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. You can see here how our portfolio is doing:\r\n\r\nVerghese Kurien was ousted from his leadership role in GCMMF in 2006 by politically vested interests. (If you are interested in what transpired.The great man passed away six years later. Verghese Kurien’s legacy will outlast the vested interests who found it fit to stab this modern day Caesar in his Rome.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Greatest Exponent Of The ‘Infinite Game’: Verghese Kurien', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-greatest-exponent-of-the-infinite-game-verghese-kurien', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:07:16', '2019-11-01 06:07:16', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1925', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(1676, 1, '2019-09-17 07:09:11', '2019-09-17 07:09:11', '<div class=\"container text-center mt-5\">\r\n<hr />\r\nWe have received your message and would like to thank you for writing to us.\r\nIf your inquiry is urgent, please use the telephone number listed below to talk to one of our staff members.\r\nOtherwise, we will reply by email as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Thank you', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1667-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-17 07:09:11', '2019-09-17 07:09:11', '', 1667, 'http://marcellus.in/1667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1678, 1, '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '<div class=\"container text-center mt-5 mb-5\">\r\nWe have received your message and would like to thank you for writing to us.\r\nIf your inquiry is urgent, please use the telephone number listed below to talk to one of our staff members.\r\nOtherwise, we will reply by email as soon as possible.\r\n\r\n</div>', 'Thank you', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1667-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '2019-09-17 07:09:43', '', 1667, 'http://marcellus.in/1667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1679, 1, '2019-09-17 12:55:20', '2019-09-17 12:55:20', '<em>Published on: 17 September, 2019</em>\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockOuter\">\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\"><strong>Most of the drivers of the current slowdown appear to be transient and related to channel financing/GST credit issues. Understanding why the economy has slowed down at various levels (i.e. consumer, dealer, distributor, manufacturer) is central to investing sensibly in this time of flux. <em>Whilst heavy repo rate cuts are needed, the notion that structural reform is needed to resuscitate the economy is damagingly misguided.</em></strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlockOuter\">\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageContent\" valign=\"top\"><img class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImage CToWUd a6T\" tabindex=\"0\" src=\"https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/qTzCjxPUKV0B2Ncc0og5IKc-IONv9l1INLgmsmdTw5FBLHTnunSxvopQ_mxP0UpQhBCWeeshQNQ-EByKbO3eLS8Kc9e8zn0kZqEzUEHHjQHLzH1YfvR1dbLCU_1KyEvJMxEqE3tLYPppoRpf2c4B6kBcOkhOyvFocV0=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407/images/2daa315b-d679-4230-a95c-4a1dd048fdaf.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"482\" align=\"center\" /></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockOuter\">\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<div><strong>The reset is now well understood…</strong>\r\nMost people now understand that India is gradually transitioning from:</div>\r\n<div> <strong>(a)</strong> a country where it was easy to transact in cash to a country where it has become hard – albeit not impossible – to transact in cash;</div>\r\n<div><strong>(b) </strong>a country where SMEs routinely used to evade taxes to a country where such routine tax evasion has become much harder;</div>\r\n<div>and <strong>(c)</strong> from a country where the scope of operation for 90%+ companies was local/regional to a country where a far higher proportion of companies is operating on a nationwide scale courtesy much improved transport &amp; communication networks &amp; due to an integrated nationwide framework for indirect taxes (GST).Plenty has been written on these subjects. For instance on 13<sup>th</sup> August 2018, we said in our note to clients, <em>“Small/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality….India seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%)…These factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises….It goes without saying that not every small firm will be able to build a national niche. The winners will be those who have: (a) the work ethic to build a pan-India brand and national distributor-dealer networks; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally &amp; patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages....”</em><strong>…but the economic slowdown is misunderstood</strong>\r\nAnd yet, although everyone understands that we are in the throes of change, most people – investors &amp; companies alike – find it hard to understand how this change will play out. Who will be the winners &amp; losers? How long will the transition to the new world take? How painful will the transition be? In this note, we offer our few paisa worth of wisdom regarding these questions.The economic slowdown that is impacting India can be broken down into its constituent components:</div>\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<strong>Challenge 1: The capex conk-off a decade ago </strong>– The Indian economy’s slowdown started within three years of 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Ever since 2012, India’s earnings growth started decelerating arguably because the era of crony capitalism (during which promoters got easy money from Indian banks and/or global financial markets) ended with the unveiling of the 2G spectrum scam in 2010. As capex growth gradually decelerated, earnings growth for the Nifty started sliding – see chart above created using data from Bloomberg.The impact on growth of this capex conk-off was buffered by households’ savings rate falling from around 25% of GDP ten years ago to around 17% now. Basically, as corporates lost the appetite to borrow, lenders focused their efforts on convincing consumers to borrow for homes, cars and washing machines. Obviously, such a savings conk-off could not continue indefinitely. Hence as the household savings rate bottoms out, and by implication consumption (as a % of GDP) tops out, the economy feels the full impact of a conked off capex engine. Let’s label this conk-off in demand as<strong><u> S%</u></strong> CAGR.\r\n\r\n<strong>Challenge 2: Three shocks in three years (2016-2018)</strong> – The impact of three big shocks in three successive years – the latest shock being the NBFC meltdown - has impacted demand further (over and above the demand conk off identified in Challenge 1). This impact is multi-faceted and deserves to be disaggregated carefully:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>The end consumer:</strong> At a psychological level, the endless talk of jobless growth, NPAs, corporate fraud, etc seems to have had some impact on consumers’ willingness to spend. We can see this in our social circles wherein affluent people are throttling off on discretionary spend on holidays, marriage related spend, cars, etc. Furthermore, given the nature of the Indian economy, many consumers are dealers, distributor or manufacturers of something or the other (see the impacts discussed in the following bullets). Hence it is but natural that they have throttled off on spending as they see their businesses hit by the slowdown. Let’s label this conk-off in demand as<strong><u> J%</u></strong> CAGR.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>The dealer: </strong>This guy is your typical local shopkeeper. All his life he has hidden most of his profits from the taxman (i.e. his profits are black money). Now, in the post-GST world, he is reluctant to show all his revenues in white as that will invite scrutiny from the taxman of the prior years. His next challenge is working capital financing of his inventory - all these years his inventory was financed through black money. Now he needs white money channel financing but no lender will provide the same as the dealer’s white money profits have historically been negligible. As a result, we have heard from several companies that the dealer does not have money to finance his purchase of inventory. The dealer’s predicament has a multiplier impact on demand because he’s part of the pipe through which goods reach the consumer (and the triple shocks of the last 3 years has basically squeezed the pipe). Let’s call this multiplier <strong><u>K</u></strong> where K is a number greater than 1. The cumulative impact therefore becomes <strong>(S%+J%)xK</strong> where K amplifies the demand conk-off.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>The distributor</strong>: The impact of GST on the distributors’ margins do NOT appear to be anything as serious as the impact on the dealers’ margins. The distributors’ problem appears to be the late payment of GST credit which has resulted in distributors’ operating cashflow being crunched. That in turn has meant that the distributor is ordering less from the manufacturer. Think of this as another multiplicative factor, <strong><u>M </u></strong>(where M&gt;1), which squeezes the pipe through which goods reach the consumer. The cumulative impact therefore becomes <strong>(S%+J%)xKxM</strong> where K &amp; M amplify the demand conk-off.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>The manufacturer: </strong>Like the distributor, the manufacturers’ operating cashflows too are impacted by the withholding of GST credit. In addition, the NBFC conk-off hits the ability of the SME manufacturers to borrow to finance their working capital needs. More obviously, as demand conks-off, operating leverage works in reverse to crunch profits even more than the fall in demand. Let’s call operative leverage P where P is a multiplicative factor (and P&gt;1). Hence the conk-off in manufacturers’ profits is <strong>(S%+J%)xKxMxP</strong> where K, M and P are factors amplifying the demand slowdown.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>What is transient and what is structural?</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Clearly Challenge 1 is NOT transient.</strong> Barring 1994-97 and 2004-10, India has not seen a capex boom ever. Hence it is unlikely that the capex cycle will turn around in a pronounced manner (i.e. 2004-10 style) anytime soon. Furthermore, thanks to the Insolvency &amp; Bankruptcy Code, the crony capitalists who financed India’s capex historically can no longer default on their loans in the manner in which they are historically accustomed to. Therefore, it seems likely to be while before we see a proper capex boom in India.\r\n\r\nHowever,most of the issues pertaining to Challenge 2 appear to us to be transient provided the Government (or the global economy) does not deliver yet another adverse shock. Three weeks ago the Finance Minister promised to address the GST credit issue which is bedevilling the entire distribution chain. Secondly, we are aware that several lenders are working on providing channel financing constructs which address the needs of dealers. Thirdly, the falling prices of steel, rubber, land and capital mean that prices should come off for most products thereby allowing the economy to adjust to a lower level of demand. This is how free market economies adjust to demand shocks. This is how the Indian economy is likely adjust.\r\n\r\nOverall therefore whilst the S% conk-off appears unlikely to go away, K, M, P &amp; J% look likely to be gradually addressed over the coming year. Hence we do NOT buy the argument that something fundamental is broken in the Indian economy and structural reforms are the need of the hour. In fact, we would argue rapid structural reform has resulted in many of the issues highlighted above! To ask for more structural reform at present is therefore misguided. That being said, a logical response to the reduced demand highlighted above would be for the RBI to highlight a glide path towards significantly lower interest rates over the next 12 months. We reckon as much as 200bps of repo rate cuts over the next two years could be warranted given the severity of the two challenges outlined in the note.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications: how can we make money in this slowdown?</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Companies for whom the <strong>distribution channel is non-existent</strong> will be less impacted by the slowdown. One can see this clearly in the way the slowdown has not impacted Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Trent and Westlife (McDonald’s). Similarly, Amazon, Flipkart and DMart are NOT experiencing any slowdown. See <a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html</a></li>\r\n 	<li>Companies which sell <strong>essential products </strong>(eg. baby milk powder (Nestle), blood tests (Dr Lals), adhesives (Pidilite)) will be less impacted by the slowdown as households throttle off on discretionary consumption. Basically, for them S% and J% will be much lower for companies selling essential products (than it is for companies selling discretionary items). If such companies have managed their channel properly, then K, M &amp; P would also be lower for them.</li>\r\n 	<li>Companies which <strong>finance SMEs’ working capital needs</strong> will be severely impacted by the slowdown. Such lenders are feeling the amplifying impact of K, M and P. Many of these lenders seem likely to go out of business before Challenge 2 subsides. At the same time a massive brand new opportunity – channel financing for dealers, distributors, manufacturers operating in the white economy – will open up for smart, well capitalised lenders. We reckon Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance can capitalize on this opportunity.</li>\r\n 	<li>Companies which are able to <strong>pull market share from their competitors</strong> will be less impacted by the slowdown. Basically, these firms will use market share gains to negate the impact of S% and J%. Structurally, the biggest winners across sectors are companies who are able to understand the drivers of the changes highlighted above and move adroitly to consolidate market share in their sectors. We have tried our best to pack our clients’ <a href=\"/products/\">portfolios with such stocks</a>. Earnings of the companies in our portfolio grew 17% in Q1 FY20. However, given the complexity of the changes outlined above we cannot afford to let our guard down in this time of flux. You can see here how our CCP portfolio is doing: <a href=\"/newsletter/why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress/\">http://marcellus.in/newsletter/why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress/</a></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n</div>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/blog/\">http://marcellus.in/blog/</a>\r\n<em><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Marcellus: Dissecting the Economic Slowdown in India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:09:30', '2019-11-01 06:09:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1679', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(1971, 1, '2019-11-01 06:10:39', '2019-11-01 06:10:39', '<em>Published on: 5 September, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Like investors, investigative journalists are paid to uncover undiscovered facts and perspectives. The best investigative journalists have the mental agility to deal with complexity &amp; detail alongside the courage to acknowledge unpleasant realities. We seek to learn from four outstanding investigative writers – Steve Coll, Robert Caro, Ram Guha and Manu Pillai.</strong>\n\n<em>“Interviews: silence is the weapon, silence and people’s need to fill it…Two of fiction’s greatest interviewers – Georges Simeonon’s Inspector Maigret and John Le Carre’s George Smiley – have little devices they use to keep themselves from talking, and let silence do its work…When I’m waiting for the person I’m interviewing to break a silence by giving me a piece of information I want, I write “SU” (for Shut Up!) in my notebook. If anyone were to ever look through my notebooks, he would find a lot of ‘SUs’ there.” </em>–<strong> Robert Caro in ‘Working: Researching, Interviewing, Writing” (2019) </strong>\n\n<strong>Learning from the specialists in discovering hidden facts/perspectives </strong>\nAt Marcellus, we try to focus less on outcomes (eg. returns delivered, winning stocks) and more on process (eg. logical reasoning skills, capital allocation analysis, recruitment of smart &amp; ethical people). Of course, like most people, we too often get excited by positive outcomes as opposed to the effortful immersion in methodical research. Hence we keep looking for ways to make the immersion in process and in detail more interesting. This note describes some of our efforts in this regard.\n\nAs investors we get paid to either see the world in ways others cannot see and/or for uncovering data/facts that others haven’t discovered. Another profession which gets paid for much the same things is investigative journalism. So who are the leading investigate journalists/researchers of our time and what can we learn from them? In this note, we focus on four outstanding researchers - Robert Caro, Steve Coll, Ram Guha and Manu Pillai – whose work is easily accessible to us. For those who haven’t come across their work, here are short bios on these four writers:\n\n<strong>Robert Caro:</strong> Two time Pullitzer Prize winner, Robert Caro, is famous for his biographies of Robert Moses - the powerful but racist civil servant who built most of the expressways, bridges and parks around New York City - and former US President Lyndon Johnson. Caro began his career as a newspaper journalist but the seven years which took him to write his book on Robert Moses – a book which won him his first Pullitzer - resulted in him becoming a full time historian. Such is Caro’s reputation for exhaustive research and detail, he is sometimes invoked by reviewers of other writers who are called \"Caro-esque\" for their own extensive research.\n\n<strong>Steve Coll:</strong> Another Two time Pullitzer Prize winner, Steve Coll is currently the dean of Columbia University’s famous School of Journalism. The first Steve Coll book we read was ‘On the Grand Trunk Road’ (1994), a book written whilst Coll was living in India as the Washington Post’s South Asia Bureau Chief. Coll then cemented his legendary status in a series of remarkably well researched books on how the SEC functions, how the CIA functions, how Al-Qaeda is run and how Pakistan’s ISI makes a fool out of everybody else. So deep is Coll’s knowledge that the US Government turns to him for guidance on some of these matters. If you are interested in the Al-Qaeda and Pakistan’s ISI, you have to read Coll’s ‘Ghosts Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afgahnistan and Bin Laden…’ (2004) and ‘Directorate S: the CIA and America’s Secret Wars in Afgahnistan and Pakistan’ (2018).\n\n<strong>Ramachandra Guha:</strong> A versatile intellectual, Ram Guha is arguably contemporary India’s most famous historian. He’s best known for his epic trilogy of books which capture India’s evolution over the past 150 years – ‘India After Gandhi’ (2007), ‘Gandhi Before India’ (2013) and ‘Gandhi: The Years That Changed the World’ (2018). His research into the social history of Indian cricket culminated in an award winning book, ‘A Corner of a Foreign Field: The Indian history of a British Sport’ (2002).\n\n<strong>Manu Pillai:</strong> By far the youngest of this quartet of great writers, Manu Pillai is arguably the brightest young historian in India. Four years ago the BBC appointed him as a research assistant to help Sunil Khilnani with his outstanding book-cum-radio shows - ‘Incarnations: India in 50 Lives’ (2016). Subsequently, in the last three years, Pillai has published three well researched books: ‘Ivory Throne: Chronicles of the House of Travancore’ (2016), ‘Rebel Sultans: the Deccan from Khilji to Shivaji’ (2018) and ‘The Courtesan, the Mahatma and the Italian Brahmin: Tales from Indian History’ (2019). Whilst we haven’t read the third book, we can safely say that first two books are riveting tales of intrigue &amp; conflict that would hold your attention for hours on an end.\n\nSo what can we learn from these writers? How can we improve our own skillset &amp; mindset?\n\n<strong>What marks out the greatest researchers?</strong>\n\n<strong>1 . Question the received wisdom: </strong>Although Mark Twain said that <em>“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority it is time to pause &amp; reflect”</em>, most of us live in an echo chamber surrounded by people who are culturally and economically similar to us. We tell them what they like to hear and, for the most part, they return the favour. Great researchers buck this trend by having a more sceptical mindset. For them the natural thing to do is question the status quo rather than accepting things as they are.\n\nFor example, in his five volume biography of President Lyndon Johnson (LBJ), Robert Caro dismantles the conventional narrative built around LBJ by his previous biographers, namely that LBJ rose from a dirt poor Texan background and worked his way up to the Presidency courtesy his intelligence and his industry. Caro shows how money from the Texan construction company, Brown &amp; Root, underpinned LBJ’s ascent. Thanks to Caro’s research we now know that LBJ was the first modern day American President to cut deals with firms who benefit from government contracts – Brown &amp; Root provided money to Democrat politicians who needed election campaign finance. In return these politicians supported LBJ. And LBJ in turn saw to it that Brown &amp; Root got the government contracts it sought. Cynics who believe that only India is populated by such politicians should revisit their cynicism.\n\n<b>2 . Absorb the detail but see the big picture</b>: Before they hit the ‘eureka moment’, great researchers learn to keep digging. And in order to avoid getting lost in the detail, they learn to keep the big picture in mind. Steve Coll provides a masterly demonstration of this in ‘Directorate S’. The book is based on 550 interviews (conducted over 2007-17 across USA, Pakistan, Afghanistan &amp; Europe by Coll and his four researchers), hundreds of Wikileak cables, court documents from 7 cases fought in US courts, 20 sets of documents from the US Government, around 30 reports published by a variety of bodies (eg. the US Army, the London School of Economics, Atlantic Council, etc) and over 200 other books &amp; news reports.\n\nAnd yet through all of this Coll keeps his and the reader’s focus on the central narrative, namely: (a) Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda used the Taliban and Pakistan’s ISI to create a base in Afghanistan from which to attack American interests; (b) the ISI made extensive use of American money to fund terrorists in Afghanistan who eventually turned their guns &amp; bombs on America itself; and (c) the American intelligence agencies persistently underestimated the threat posed by Bin Laden and ISI inspite of the considerable body of evidence available to the CIA of the same\n\n<strong>3 . The courage to question your own hypothesis:</strong> Outstanding researchers have the willingness to continue researching even when the facts suggest that their own initial hypothesis is incorrect. Whilst most biographers of Mahatma Gandhi have typically relied on the great man’s account of his own life (which runs into 5000 pages) along with Richard Attenborough’s 1982 movie, Ram Guha takes a different approach in his two volume biography of the Mahatma.\n\nGuha repeatedly digs out contemporaneous sources and cites them in his books even when they contradict the Mahatma’s own account of his life. For example, in the second volume of the biography, Guha cites a letter written in the mid-1940s by Horace Alexander, a close friend of Gandhi’s. The subject of the letter are the chastity tests that Gandhi was subjecting himself by <em>“sleeping in a bed with his teenage grandniece, Manu Gandhi.”</em> Guha then quotes from Manu’s own diary what she thought of these experiments. Then he concludes <em>“There may have been, as it were, two sides to the story. Both Gandhi and Manu may have wanted to go through this experiment, or ordeal. To be sure, there was a certain amount of imposition – from his side.” </em>Guha knows that for him and for other devotees of the great man, this isn’t an easy conclusion to reach. However, he does not flinch from doing the research and telling us what he makes of the situation.\n\n<strong>4 . Communicate by simplifying complexity:</strong> The oldest book on human communication is Aristotle’s ‘Rhetorica’. Aristotle believed that an effective communicator must use compelling logic to make his point. Great researchers are adept at this. In India today, more than any other writer, Manu Pillai is communicating Indian history to a contemporary audience with short attention spans. He says, <em>“The books I read made it clear to me that the typical (and I daresay tedious) linear narratives which masquerade as history in popular imagination are highly limited, unable by their very nature to do justice to the magnificence of India’s story…it was work on my first book, The Ivory Throne, that really got me questioning received wisdom and notions—my protagonist, Sethu Lakshmi Bayi, was the last female Maharajah of Travancore…I wanted to resurrect her because she deserved to be more than a passing footnote in the story of Kerala. The themes I tried to weave around her tale—the matrilineal system, the invention of “tradition”, and the constant intermixing of cultures, in ways that would amaze and perhaps even shock some of us today—challenged elementary concepts I had learnt in school, based as they were on patriarchal standards and viewed through historically limited lens. As soon as my eyes were opened, I wanted to combine solid research with appealing language—after all, what is the point of discovering the past in all its glory, if it cannot be disseminated to a larger audience? We are all heirs to a remarkable heritage, and we owe it to ourselves to do justice to that heritage.” (Source:</em> <a href=\"https://www.platform-mag.com/literature/manu-s-pillai.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.platform-mag.com/literature/manu-s-pillai.html</a>)\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nThe goal of good investigative writers – and of good researchers in general - is too trigger action. Rarely are such people working in a cloister because they enjoy research for research’s sake. They see research as a means to an end. The end could be to expose a corrupt politician or it could be make a case against social injustice or to resurrect a forgotten story/figure.\n\nIn much the same vein, those of who undertake deep research into listed companies are either doing so to discover hidden perspectives/facts about these entities. Such perspectives could be negative (eg. many of India’s leading companies have financial statements which do not stack up) or they could be positive (eg. some of India’s most consistently profitable companies have built formidable barriers to entry which are cleverly hidden from the wider world).\n\nMore pertinently, the more we as investors look beyond <a href=\"http://blogs/the-indian-stockmarket-is-unique-here-is-the-data/\">stock prices</a> and P/E multiples and obsess about digging for facts &amp; perspectives in the real world, the more <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-our-habits-as-much-as-our-brains-drive-investment-decisions/\">we can anchor our investments</a> in the harsh realities of the highly competitive free market economy that is India today.\n\nWhether it is in investigative writing or in the<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/how-competitive-advantage-drives-churn-in-the-stockmarket/\"> stockmarket,</a> when we find people who are thoughtful, conscientious and forthright, we latch on to them because such people are more likely than not to deliver outstanding results in the professions of their choice.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Learning from Great Investigative Writers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1659-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:10:39', '2019-11-01 06:10:39', '', 1659, 'http://marcellus.in/1659-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1734, 1, '2019-09-30 05:54:18', '2019-09-30 05:54:18', 'a:12:{s:4:\"type\";s:5:\"radio\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:1;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:7:\"choices\";a:2:{s:7:\"Youtube\";s:7:\"Youtube\";s:7:\"Website\";s:7:\"Website\";}s:10:\"allow_null\";i:0;s:12:\"other_choice\";i:0;s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:6:\"layout\";s:8:\"vertical\";s:13:\"return_format\";s:5:\"value\";s:17:\"save_other_choice\";i:0;}', 'Link Type', 'link_type', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d9198647679c', '', '', '2019-09-30 05:56:48', '2019-09-30 05:56:48', '', 1728, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&#038;p=1734', 0, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(1682, 1, '2019-09-08 05:54:50', '2019-09-08 05:54:50', 'Richard Seymour has written a superb essay on the destructive powers of social media networks. Such is the power of the “network effects” and such is attraction of the approbation of others that millions of us are spending hours each day writing on social media. In return what are we getting: <em>“In a form of mass casualisation, writers no longer expect to be paid or given employment contracts. What do the platforms offer us, in lieu of a wage? What gets us hooked? Approval, attention, retweets, shares and likes.”</em>\r\nBut beyond network effects and our desire for social approval, why exactly are social media platforms like Twitter so powerful? <em>“The Twittering Machine thrives on its speed, informality and interactivity. The protocols of Twitter itself, for example, encourage people to post quickly and often. The feed has an extremely rapid turnover, so that anything posted will, unless it “goes viral”, tend to be quickly forgotten by most followers. The system of followers, @ing and threading encourages sprawling conversations to develop from initial tweets, favouring constant interaction. This is what people like about it, what makes it engaging: it is like texting, but in a public, collective context.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, as with financial options, Twitter thrives on chaos. <em>“The regular sweet spot sought after is a brief period of ecstatic collective frenzy around any given topic. It doesn’t particularly matter to the platforms what the frenzy is about: the point is to generate data, one of the most profitable raw materials yet discovered. As in the financial markets, volatility adds value. The more chaos, the better.”</em>\r\nThe addiction that social media platforms generate, says the author, is akin to a gambler’s craving for the next roll of the dice. <em>“Every gambler trusts in a few abstract symbols – the dots on a dice, numerals, suits, red or black, the graphemes on a fruit machine – to tell them who they are. In most cases, the answer is brutal and swift: you are a loser and you are going home with nothing. The true gambler takes a perverse joy in anteing up, putting their whole being at stake. On social media, you scratch out a few words, a few symbols, and press send, rolling the dice. The internet will tell you who you are and what your destiny is through arithmetic likes, shares and comments.”</em>\r\nIn the casino the addicts gamble for money. On social media, the addicts vie with each other for attention. <em>“Going viral, or trending, is the equivalent of a windfall. But sometimes, winning is the worst thing that can happen. The temperate climate of likes and approval is apt to break, lightning-quick, into sudden storms of fury and disapproval.”</em>\r\nAs we get more entrenched in our make believe world of social media, it gets increasingly hard to maintain a real sense of perspective about the outside world: <em>“The sense of dropping out of time is common to many addictions. As one former gambling addict puts it: “All I can remember is living in a trance for four years.” Schüll calls it the “machine zone”, where ordinary reality is “suspended in the mechanical rhythm of a repeating process”. For many addicts, the idea of facing the normal flow of time is unbearably depressing. Marc Lewis, a neuroscientist and former heroin addict, describes how even after kicking the drug, he couldn’t face “a day without a change of state”.</em>\r\n<em>The Twittering Machine, as a wholly designed operant conditioning chamber, needs none of the expedients of the casino or opium den. The user has already dropped out of work, a boring lunch or an anxious social situation to enter into a different, timeless zone…</em>\r\n<em>The experience of platform users, on the other hand, is organised in a trance-like flow. The user is plunged into a stream of real-time information and disciplined to stay constantly ahead of it. Twitter highlights not the time and date of posts, but their age and thus currency: 4m, or 12h, as the case may be.</em>\r\n<em>The ensuing trance-like state, according to the digital theorist David Berry, is remarkably similar to what in early stock markets was called the “ticker trance”. Financial speculators would become absorbed in watching the signals conveyed on stock market ticker tape, vigilant to every minute variation in a real-time flow.”</em>\r\nThe author then makes a really interesting point regarding how social media is the real<strong> convergence of financial markets and tech:</strong> <em>“And there is a logical convergence between financialisation and tech. The financial sector is the most computerised sector of capitalism, and the use of software for trading has resulted in numerous efforts to “game the system” – as in May 2010, when a trader’s use of algorithms to repeatedly spoof bets against the market some 19,000 times briefly caused a trillion-dollar crash.”</em>\r\nLike alcoholism and like gambling, social media is destroying careers, families and lives: <em>“The complaints are almost always the same: users end up constantly distracted, unproductive, anxious, needy and depressed – yet also curiously susceptible to advertising. Patrick Garratt wrote of his social media addiction causing a “desperate, hollow pressure of waste” in his working life as a journalist. Social-media addiction has been linked, repeatedly, to increased depression: interaction with the platforms correlates with a major decline in mental health, while increased screen time (or “time on device”) may be contributing to a recent surge in teen suicides.”</em>', 'The machine always wins: what drives our addiction to social media', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-machine-always-wins-what-drives-our-addiction-to-social-media', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:17:11', '2019-11-05 12:17:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1682', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1683, 1, '2019-09-20 05:49:11', '2019-09-20 05:49:11', 'Richard Seymour has written a superb essay on the destructive powers of social media networks. Such is the power of the “network effects” and such is attraction of the approbation of others that millions of us are spending hours each day writing on social media. In return what are we getting: <em>“In a form of mass casualisation, writers no longer expect to be paid or given employment contracts. What do the platforms offer us, in lieu of a wage? What gets us hooked? Approval, attention, retweets, shares and likes.”</em>\r\nBut beyond network effects and our desire for social approval, why exactly are social media platforms like Twitter so powerful? <em>“The Twittering Machine thrives on its speed, informality and interactivity. The protocols of Twitter itself, for example, encourage people to post quickly and often. The feed has an extremely rapid turnover, so that anything posted will, unless it “goes viral”, tend to be quickly forgotten by most followers. The system of followers, @ing and threading encourages sprawling conversations to develop from initial tweets, favouring constant interaction. This is what people like about it, what makes it engaging: it is like texting, but in a public, collective context.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, as with financial options, Twitter thrives on chaos. <em>“The regular sweet spot sought after is a brief period of ecstatic collective frenzy around any given topic. It doesn’t particularly matter to the platforms what the frenzy is about: the point is to generate data, one of the most profitable raw materials yet discovered. As in the financial markets, volatility adds value. The more chaos, the better.”</em>\r\nThe addiction that social media platforms generate, says the author, is akin to a gambler’s craving for the next roll of the dice. <em>“Every gambler trusts in a few abstract symbols – the dots on a dice, numerals, suits, red or black, the graphemes on a fruit machine – to tell them who they are. In most cases, the answer is brutal and swift: you are a loser and you are going home with nothing. The true gambler takes a perverse joy in anteing up, putting their whole being at stake. On social media, you scratch out a few words, a few symbols, and press send, rolling the dice. The internet will tell you who you are and what your destiny is through arithmetic likes, shares and comments.”</em>\r\nIn the casino the addicts gamble for money. On social media, the addicts vie with each other for attention. <em>“Going viral, or trending, is the equivalent of a windfall. But sometimes, winning is the worst thing that can happen. The temperate climate of likes and approval is apt to break, lightning-quick, into sudden storms of fury and disapproval.”</em>\r\nAs we get more entrenched in our make believe world of social media, it gets increasingly hard to maintain a real sense of perspective about the outside world: <em>“The sense of dropping out of time is common to many addictions. As one former gambling addict puts it: “All I can remember is living in a trance for four years.” Schüll calls it the “machine zone”, where ordinary reality is “suspended in the mechanical rhythm of a repeating process”. For many addicts, the idea of facing the normal flow of time is unbearably depressing. Marc Lewis, a neuroscientist and former heroin addict, describes how even after kicking the drug, he couldn’t face “a day without a change of state”.</em>\r\n<em>The Twittering Machine, as a wholly designed operant conditioning chamber, needs none of the expedients of the casino or opium den. The user has already dropped out of work, a boring lunch or an anxious social situation to enter into a different, timeless zone…</em>\r\n<em>The experience of platform users, on the other hand, is organised in a trance-like flow. The user is plunged into a stream of real-time information and disciplined to stay constantly ahead of it. Twitter highlights not the time and date of posts, but their age and thus currency: 4m, or 12h, as the case may be.</em>\r\n<em>The ensuing trance-like state, according to the digital theorist David Berry, is remarkably similar to what in early stock markets was called the “ticker trance”. Financial speculators would become absorbed in watching the signals conveyed on stock market ticker tape, vigilant to every minute variation in a real-time flow.”</em>\r\nThe author then makes a really interesting point regarding how social media is the real<strong> convergence of financial markets and tech:</strong> <em>“And there is a logical convergence between financialisation and tech. The financial sector is the most computerised sector of capitalism, and the use of software for trading has resulted in numerous efforts to “game the system” – as in May 2010, when a trader’s use of algorithms to repeatedly spoof bets against the market some 19,000 times briefly caused a trillion-dollar crash.”</em>\r\nLike alcoholism and like gambling, social media is destroying careers, families and lives: <em>“The complaints are almost always the same: users end up constantly distracted, unproductive, anxious, needy and depressed – yet also curiously susceptible to advertising. Patrick Garratt wrote of his social media addiction causing a “desperate, hollow pressure of waste” in his working life as a journalist. Social-media addiction has been linked, repeatedly, to increased depression: interaction with the platforms correlates with a major decline in mental health, while increased screen time (or “time on device”) may be contributing to a recent surge in teen suicides.”</em>', 'The machine always wins: what drives our addiction to social media', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1682-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 05:49:11', '2019-09-20 05:49:11', '', 1682, 'http://marcellus.in/1682-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1684, 1, '2019-09-20 05:54:50', '2019-09-20 05:54:50', 'Richard Seymour has written a superb essay on the destructive powers of social media networks. Such is the power of the “network effects” and such is attraction of the approbation of others that millions of us are spending hours each day writing on social media. In return what are we getting: <em>“In a form of mass casualisation, writers no longer expect to be paid or given employment contracts. What do the platforms offer us, in lieu of a wage? What gets us hooked? Approval, attention, retweets, shares and likes.”</em>\r\nBut beyond network effects and our desire for social approval, why exactly are social media platforms like Twitter so powerful? <em>“The Twittering Machine thrives on its speed, informality and interactivity. The protocols of Twitter itself, for example, encourage people to post quickly and often. The feed has an extremely rapid turnover, so that anything posted will, unless it “goes viral”, tend to be quickly forgotten by most followers. The system of followers, @ing and threading encourages sprawling conversations to develop from initial tweets, favouring constant interaction. This is what people like about it, what makes it engaging: it is like texting, but in a public, collective context.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, as with financial options, Twitter thrives on chaos. <em>“The regular sweet spot sought after is a brief period of ecstatic collective frenzy around any given topic. It doesn’t particularly matter to the platforms what the frenzy is about: the point is to generate data, one of the most profitable raw materials yet discovered. As in the financial markets, volatility adds value. The more chaos, the better.”</em>\r\nThe addiction that social media platforms generate, says the author, is akin to a gambler’s craving for the next roll of the dice. <em>“Every gambler trusts in a few abstract symbols – the dots on a dice, numerals, suits, red or black, the graphemes on a fruit machine – to tell them who they are. In most cases, the answer is brutal and swift: you are a loser and you are going home with nothing. The true gambler takes a perverse joy in anteing up, putting their whole being at stake. On social media, you scratch out a few words, a few symbols, and press send, rolling the dice. The internet will tell you who you are and what your destiny is through arithmetic likes, shares and comments.”</em>\r\nIn the casino the addicts gamble for money. On social media, the addicts vie with each other for attention. <em>“Going viral, or trending, is the equivalent of a windfall. But sometimes, winning is the worst thing that can happen. The temperate climate of likes and approval is apt to break, lightning-quick, into sudden storms of fury and disapproval.”</em>\r\nAs we get more entrenched in our make believe world of social media, it gets increasingly hard to maintain a real sense of perspective about the outside world: <em>“The sense of dropping out of time is common to many addictions. As one former gambling addict puts it: “All I can remember is living in a trance for four years.” Schüll calls it the “machine zone”, where ordinary reality is “suspended in the mechanical rhythm of a repeating process”. For many addicts, the idea of facing the normal flow of time is unbearably depressing. Marc Lewis, a neuroscientist and former heroin addict, describes how even after kicking the drug, he couldn’t face “a day without a change of state”.</em>\r\n<em>The Twittering Machine, as a wholly designed operant conditioning chamber, needs none of the expedients of the casino or opium den. The user has already dropped out of work, a boring lunch or an anxious social situation to enter into a different, timeless zone…</em>\r\n<em>The experience of platform users, on the other hand, is organised in a trance-like flow. The user is plunged into a stream of real-time information and disciplined to stay constantly ahead of it. Twitter highlights not the time and date of posts, but their age and thus currency: 4m, or 12h, as the case may be.</em>\r\n<em>The ensuing trance-like state, according to the digital theorist David Berry, is remarkably similar to what in early stock markets was called the “ticker trance”. Financial speculators would become absorbed in watching the signals conveyed on stock market ticker tape, vigilant to every minute variation in a real-time flow.”</em>\r\nThe author then makes a really interesting point regarding how social media is the real<strong> convergence of financial markets and tech:</strong> <em>“And there is a logical convergence between financialisation and tech. The financial sector is the most computerised sector of capitalism, and the use of software for trading has resulted in numerous efforts to “game the system” – as in May 2010, when a trader’s use of algorithms to repeatedly spoof bets against the market some 19,000 times briefly caused a trillion-dollar crash.”</em>\r\nLike alcoholism and like gambling, social media is destroying careers, families and lives: <em>“The complaints are almost always the same: users end up constantly distracted, unproductive, anxious, needy and depressed – yet also curiously susceptible to advertising. Patrick Garratt wrote of his social media addiction causing a “desperate, hollow pressure of waste” in his working life as a journalist. Social-media addiction has been linked, repeatedly, to increased depression: interaction with the platforms correlates with a major decline in mental health, while increased screen time (or “time on device”) may be contributing to a recent surge in teen suicides.”</em>', 'The machine always wins: what drives our addiction to social media', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1682-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 05:54:50', '2019-09-20 05:54:50', '', 1682, 'http://marcellus.in/1682-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1685, 1, '2019-09-08 05:56:52', '2019-09-08 05:56:52', 'In the wake of growing concerns from the rise of the ‘Big corporate’, two weeks ago, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82d45cbd24&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82d45cbd24%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTg5qZ2bZ3HTIqqM42EWARuDVJSg\">an American corporate lobby comprised of CEOs</a> of some of the largest corporates pledged to look beyond just shareholder interests and instead become inclusive in terms of taking care of customers, employees, vendors and the society at large. Perhaps, an appropriate time for William Dalrymple, the Scottish historian settled in India to come up with his new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=37b683e7f2&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D37b683e7f2%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEw3MZZjTsBTZFgAxVEbs_a1rMngA\">‘The Anarchy’</a> which tracks the evolution of the East India Company into a giant and ruthless corporation. In this leading piece in the FT, Dalrymple gives a sense of how big and influential really was the world’s first ‘big corporate’ and puts that in the context of today’s monopolistic behemoths such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc. The East India Company’s influence was far and wide including triggering the American War of Independence on the back of the Boston Tea Party where the company’s tea trade from China to the west got on the wrong side of the patriots. Dalrymple clarifies that more than colonialism the British rule of the Indian sub-continent was a result of unbridled profit motives of the EIC, a company effectively set up by a bunch of traders to look beyond the European continent as Britain got sidelined by the Protestant-Catholic rift with mainland Europe (a Brexit of sorts, says John Gapper). Indeed the company got so powerful in the context of the nation state itself that it ended up morphing into a colonial rule. Dalrymple notes that at some stage the private security force of the company was twice the size of the British army. Dalrymple concludes that whilst today’s ‘Big Corporates’ may not need armies of their own, their influence on governments and hence legislations will in some ways resemble the EIC.\r\n\r\n<em>“We still talk about the British conquering India, but that phrase disguises a more sinister reality. For it was not the British government that began seizing chunks of India in the mid-18th century, but a dangerously unregulated private company headquartered in one small office, five windows wide, in London, and managed in India by a violent, ruthless and mentally unstable corporate predator — Robert Clive. India’s transition to colonialism, in other words, took place under a for-profit corporation, which existed entirely for the purpose of enriching its investors.</em>\r\n<em>…By the beginning of the 19th century, the East India Company had become, as one of its directors admitted, “an empire within an empire”, with the power to make war or peace anywhere in the east. The EIC had created a vast and sophisticated administration and civil service in India, and built much of London’s Docklands. Its annual spending in Britain — around £8.5m — equalled about a quarter of total British government annual expenditure. No wonder the Company now referred to itself as “the grandest society of merchants in the Universe”. Its private armies were larger than those of almost all nation-states and its power encircled the globe; indeed, its shares were a kind of global reserve currency. As the parliamentarian Edmund Burke wrote: “The Constitution of the Company began in commerce and ended in Empire.”…</em>\r\n<em>….When people voice fears today about the power of corporations and the way global companies can find ways around the laws and the legislatures of individual nation-states, it is no accident that they sound like 18th-century commentators such as Horace Walpole, who decried the way that EIC wealth had corrupted parliament: “What is England now?” he asked, but “a sink of Indian wealth, filled by nabobs [with] . . . a Senate sold and despised.”…”</em>', 'Lessons for Capitalism from the East India Company', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lessons-for-capitalism-from-the-east-india-company', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:14:27', '2019-11-05 12:14:27', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1685', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1686, 1, '2019-09-20 05:57:44', '2019-09-20 05:57:44', 'In the wake of growing concerns from the rise of the ‘Big corporate’, two weeks ago, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82d45cbd24&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82d45cbd24%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTg5qZ2bZ3HTIqqM42EWARuDVJSg\">an American corporate lobby comprised of CEOs</a> of some of the largest corporates pledged to look beyond just shareholder interests and instead become inclusive in terms of taking care of customers, employees, vendors and the society at large. Perhaps, an appropriate time for William Dalrymple, the Scottish historian settled in India to come up with his new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=37b683e7f2&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D37b683e7f2%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEw3MZZjTsBTZFgAxVEbs_a1rMngA\">‘The Anarchy’</a> which tracks the evolution of the East India Company into a giant and ruthless corporation. In this leading piece in the FT, Dalrymple gives a sense of how big and influential really was the world’s first ‘big corporate’ and puts that in the context of today’s monopolistic behemoths such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc. The East India Company’s influence was far and wide including triggering the American War of Independence on the back of the Boston Tea Party where the company’s tea trade from China to the west got on the wrong side of the patriots. Dalrymple clarifies that more than colonialism the British rule of the Indian sub-continent was a result of unbridled profit motives of the EIC, a company effectively set up by a bunch of traders to look beyond the European continent as Britain got sidelined by the Protestant-Catholic rift with mainland Europe (a Brexit of sorts, says John Gapper). Indeed the company got so powerful in the context of the nation state itself that it ended up morphing into a colonial rule. Dalrymple notes that at some stage the private security force of the company was twice the size of the British army. Dalrymple concludes that whilst today’s ‘Big Corporates’ may not need armies of their own, their influence on governments and hence legislations will in some ways resemble the EIC.\r\n\r\n<em>“We still talk about the British conquering India, but that phrase disguises a more sinister reality. For it was not the British government that began seizing chunks of India in the mid-18th century, but a dangerously unregulated private company headquartered in one small office, five windows wide, in London, and managed in India by a violent, ruthless and mentally unstable corporate predator — Robert Clive. India’s transition to colonialism, in other words, took place under a for-profit corporation, which existed entirely for the purpose of enriching its investors.</em>\r\n<em>…By the beginning of the 19th century, the East India Company had become, as one of its directors admitted, “an empire within an empire”, with the power to make war or peace anywhere in the east. The EIC had created a vast and sophisticated administration and civil service in India, and built much of London’s Docklands. Its annual spending in Britain — around £8.5m — equalled about a quarter of total British government annual expenditure. No wonder the Company now referred to itself as “the grandest society of merchants in the Universe”. Its private armies were larger than those of almost all nation-states and its power encircled the globe; indeed, its shares were a kind of global reserve currency. As the parliamentarian Edmund Burke wrote: “The Constitution of the Company began in commerce and ended in Empire.”…</em>\r\n<em>….When people voice fears today about the power of corporations and the way global companies can find ways around the laws and the legislatures of individual nation-states, it is no accident that they sound like 18th-century commentators such as Horace Walpole, who decried the way that EIC wealth had corrupted parliament: “What is England now?” he asked, but “a sink of Indian wealth, filled by nabobs [with] . . . a Senate sold and despised.”…”</em>', 'Lessons for Capitalism from the East India Company', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 05:57:44', '2019-09-20 05:57:44', '', 1685, 'http://marcellus.in/1685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1687, 1, '2019-09-08 05:57:54', '2019-09-08 05:57:54', 'The emergence of super bugs or germs that are resistant to most known anti-biotics has created a quandary among medical professionals dealing with cancer patients. Chemotherapy, the most common cancer treatment has evolved over the years not just in terms of efficacy but also in improving post treatment quality of life through reduced side effects. However, it does leave patients exposed to possibility of getting their bloodstreams infected by bugs which break through the walls of the digestive tract weakened by chemotherapy. The author notes that this problem is particularly acute in a place like India where twin drivers: a) careless and rampant over use of anti-biotics has led to mutant drug-resistant bacteria; b) poor hygiene and sanitation create a conducive environment for such bacteria to develop and spread.\r\n<em>Worldwide, at least 700,000 people die annually from drug-resistant infections. That number will balloon to 10 million a year by 2050 and will cost more than $100 trillion in lost economic output without corrective actions, according to a U.K. government study, which estimates that by midcentury more people will die from superbug infections than from cancer and diabetes combined.</em>\r\n<em>Germs acquired through ingesting contaminated food and water become part of the normal gut microbiome, but they can turn deadly if they escape the bowel and infect the urinary tract, blood, and other tissues. Chemotherapy is often the culprit, allowing that to happen by weakening the lining of the digestive tract.</em>\r\n<em>Almost two-thirds of cancer patients with a carbapenem-resistant infection are dead within four weeks, vs. a 28-day mortality rate of 38% in patients whose infections are curable, Ghafur and colleagues reported in 2014. Ghafur typically tries a last-resort antibiotic called colistin with the most stubborn antibiotic-resistant strains. Increasingly, that’s failing too, resulting in pan-drug-resistant infections. In the past, says Ghafur, “maybe once in six months, once a year I got this kind of bacteria—resistant to everything.” Now it’s occurring every other week.</em>\r\n<em>Ghafur, one of India’s fiercest anti-superbug campaigners, says the cancer patients he sees dying from drug-resistant bacterial infections represent a so-called post-antibiotic era in which something as simple as a scratched knee can kill. “If you’re talking about the post-antibiotic era, you first see that in cancer patients,” he says. “They are expecting us to cure their cancer with chemotherapy—and there are wonderful chemotherapy drugs—and then we explain it to the family: Yes, your cancer will be controlled, but then you may die of infection.”</em>', 'Superbugs Deadlier Than Cancer Put Chemotherapy Into Question', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'superbugs-deadlier-than-cancer-put-chemotherapy-into-question', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:12:48', '2019-11-05 12:12:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1687', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1688, 1, '2019-09-20 05:58:32', '2019-09-20 05:58:32', 'The emergence of super bugs or germs that are resistant to most known anti-biotics has created a quandary among medical professionals dealing with cancer patients. Chemotherapy, the most common cancer treatment has evolved over the years not just in terms of efficacy but also in improving post treatment quality of life through reduced side effects. However, it does leave patients exposed to possibility of getting their bloodstreams infected by bugs which break through the walls of the digestive tract weakened by chemotherapy. The author notes that this problem is particularly acute in a place like India where twin drivers: a) careless and rampant over use of anti-biotics has led to mutant drug-resistant bacteria; b) poor hygiene and sanitation create a conducive environment for such bacteria to develop and spread.\r\n<em>Worldwide, at least 700,000 people die annually from drug-resistant infections. That number will balloon to 10 million a year by 2050 and will cost more than $100 trillion in lost economic output without corrective actions, according to a U.K. government study, which estimates that by midcentury more people will die from superbug infections than from cancer and diabetes combined.</em>\r\n<em>Germs acquired through ingesting contaminated food and water become part of the normal gut microbiome, but they can turn deadly if they escape the bowel and infect the urinary tract, blood, and other tissues. Chemotherapy is often the culprit, allowing that to happen by weakening the lining of the digestive tract.</em>\r\n<em>Almost two-thirds of cancer patients with a carbapenem-resistant infection are dead within four weeks, vs. a 28-day mortality rate of 38% in patients whose infections are curable, Ghafur and colleagues reported in 2014. Ghafur typically tries a last-resort antibiotic called colistin with the most stubborn antibiotic-resistant strains. Increasingly, that’s failing too, resulting in pan-drug-resistant infections. In the past, says Ghafur, “maybe once in six months, once a year I got this kind of bacteria—resistant to everything.” Now it’s occurring every other week.</em>\r\n<em>Ghafur, one of India’s fiercest anti-superbug campaigners, says the cancer patients he sees dying from drug-resistant bacterial infections represent a so-called post-antibiotic era in which something as simple as a scratched knee can kill. “If you’re talking about the post-antibiotic era, you first see that in cancer patients,” he says. “They are expecting us to cure their cancer with chemotherapy—and there are wonderful chemotherapy drugs—and then we explain it to the family: Yes, your cancer will be controlled, but then you may die of infection.”</em>', 'Superbugs Deadlier Than Cancer Put Chemotherapy Into Question', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1687-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 05:58:32', '2019-09-20 05:58:32', '', 1687, 'http://marcellus.in/1687-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1691, 1, '2019-09-20 05:59:46', '2019-09-20 05:59:46', 'The emergence of super bugs or germs that are resistant to most known anti-biotics has created a quandary among medical professionals dealing with cancer patients. Chemotherapy, the most common cancer treatment has evolved over the years not just in terms of efficacy but also in improving post treatment quality of life through reduced side effects. However, it does leave patients exposed to possibility of getting their bloodstreams infected by bugs which break through the walls of the digestive tract weakened by chemotherapy. The author notes that this problem is particularly acute in a place like India where twin drivers: a) careless and rampant over use of anti-biotics has led to mutant drug-resistant bacteria; b) poor hygiene and sanitation create a conducive environment for such bacteria to develop and spread.\r\n<em>Worldwide, at least 700,000 people die annually from drug-resistant infections. That number will balloon to 10 million a year by 2050 and will cost more than $100 trillion in lost economic output without corrective actions, according to a U.K. government study, which estimates that by midcentury more people will die from superbug infections than from cancer and diabetes combined.</em>\r\n<em>Germs acquired through ingesting contaminated food and water become part of the normal gut microbiome, but they can turn deadly if they escape the bowel and infect the urinary tract, blood, and other tissues. Chemotherapy is often the culprit, allowing that to happen by weakening the lining of the digestive tract.</em>\r\n<em>Almost two-thirds of cancer patients with a carbapenem-resistant infection are dead within four weeks, vs. a 28-day mortality rate of 38% in patients whose infections are curable, Ghafur and colleagues reported in 2014. Ghafur typically tries a last-resort antibiotic called colistin with the most stubborn antibiotic-resistant strains. Increasingly, that’s failing too, resulting in pan-drug-resistant infections. In the past, says Ghafur, “maybe once in six months, once a year I got this kind of bacteria—resistant to everything.” Now it’s occurring every other week.</em>\r\n<em>Ghafur, one of India’s fiercest anti-superbug campaigners, says the cancer patients he sees dying from drug-resistant bacterial infections represent a so-called post-antibiotic era in which something as simple as a scratched knee can kill. “If you’re talking about the post-antibiotic era, you first see that in cancer patients,” he says. “They are expecting us to cure their cancer with chemotherapy—and there are wonderful chemotherapy drugs—and then we explain it to the family: Yes, your cancer will be controlled, but then you may die of infection.”</em>', 'Superbugs Deadlier Than Cancer Put Chemotherapy Into Question', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1687-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 05:59:46', '2019-09-20 05:59:46', '', 1687, 'http://marcellus.in/1687-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1690, 1, '2019-09-08 05:58:40', '2019-09-08 05:58:40', 'Thomas Middlehoff, the former boss of Bertelsmann, has written a book called “Guilty”. Mr Middlehoff who was jailed for three years for tax evasion and breach of trust feels that <em>“he committed the seven deadly sins in a biblical sense, he says, which is why he feels he deserved time behind bars and the loss of his fortune, reputation, health and marriage. He wants the account of his failures to serve as a cautionary tale for businesspeople in Germany and beyond.”</em>\r\nThe Economist says that Mr Middlehoff was a very unusual German success story: <em>“He climbed to the top of Bertelsmann through a combination of hard work, unwavering belief in his instincts, showmanship and an Anglo-Saxon appetite for risk. Perhaps his biggest coup was a partnership with Steve Case, who at the time was the virtually unknown boss of a struggling startup called America Online. Then known as “Big T”, Mr Middelhoff made a fortune for Bertelsmann when he sold its stake in aol for close to €7bn ($6.7bn) in 2000, just before the dotcom bubble burst.”</em>\r\nSo how did this superstar fall from grace? <em>“Greed, he says, led him to invest in dodgy real-estate funds and tax-avoidance schemes. In 2002 he was forced out of Bertelsmann after clashing with the Mohn family, who own the company, over his plans to take the firm public. Eager for a second act as a German business tycoon, in 2005 he took the helm of KarstadtQuelle, which later became Arcandor, then Germany’s biggest retailer. His efforts to turn around that ailing company led to his humiliating decline. He sold Arcandor’s property portfolio for €4.5bn but saddled its department stores with high rents…By June the retailer had collapsed.</em>\r\n<em>That is when prosecutors began investigating Mr Middelhoff’s conduct at the company. They uncovered his use of Arcandor aircraft for private purposes and company cash to part-finance a book honouring his mentor at Bertelsmann. In 2014 a court in Essen found him guilty. He was arrested in the courtroom in front of his family. A year later he declared personal bankruptcy.”</em>\r\nMr Middelhoff’s tale of hubris should resonate in India’s boardrooms.', 'Thomas Middelhoff reflects on failure in German business', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'thomas-middelhoff-reflects-on-failure-in-german-business', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:09:39', '2019-11-05 12:09:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1690', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1692, 1, '2019-09-20 06:00:51', '2019-09-20 06:00:51', 'Thomas Middlehoff, the former boss of Bertelsmann, has written a book called “Guilty”. Mr Middlehoff who was jailed for three years for tax evasion and breach of trust feels that <em>“he committed the seven deadly sins in a biblical sense, he says, which is why he feels he deserved time behind bars and the loss of his fortune, reputation, health and marriage. He wants the account of his failures to serve as a cautionary tale for businesspeople in Germany and beyond.”</em>\r\nThe Economist says that Mr Middlehoff was a very unusual German success story: <em>“He climbed to the top of Bertelsmann through a combination of hard work, unwavering belief in his instincts, showmanship and an Anglo-Saxon appetite for risk. Perhaps his biggest coup was a partnership with Steve Case, who at the time was the virtually unknown boss of a struggling startup called America Online. Then known as “Big T”, Mr Middelhoff made a fortune for Bertelsmann when he sold its stake in aol for close to €7bn ($6.7bn) in 2000, just before the dotcom bubble burst.”</em>\r\nSo how did this superstar fall from grace? <em>“Greed, he says, led him to invest in dodgy real-estate funds and tax-avoidance schemes. In 2002 he was forced out of Bertelsmann after clashing with the Mohn family, who own the company, over his plans to take the firm public. Eager for a second act as a German business tycoon, in 2005 he took the helm of KarstadtQuelle, which later became Arcandor, then Germany’s biggest retailer. His efforts to turn around that ailing company led to his humiliating decline. He sold Arcandor’s property portfolio for €4.5bn but saddled its department stores with high rents…By June the retailer had collapsed.</em>\r\n<em>That is when prosecutors began investigating Mr Middelhoff’s conduct at the company. They uncovered his use of Arcandor aircraft for private purposes and company cash to part-finance a book honouring his mentor at Bertelsmann. In 2014 a court in Essen found him guilty. He was arrested in the courtroom in front of his family. A year later he declared personal bankruptcy.”</em>\r\nMr Middelhoff’s tale of hubris should resonate in India’s boardrooms.', 'Thomas Middelhoff reflects on failure in German business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1690-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:00:51', '2019-09-20 06:00:51', '', 1690, 'http://marcellus.in/1690-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1693, 1, '2019-09-08 06:01:09', '2019-09-08 06:01:09', 'A lively account of her first visit to the ‘Burning Man’ by Hannah Murphy this year, a year when Ray Dalio, the iconic hedge fund manager at Bridgewater Associates, proudly endorsed the event on social media as a place with great vibe and amazing creativity. Yet Hannah draws us to the ‘palpable tension that the festival aspires to be and its reality’ akin to the growing inequalities in society today.\r\n<em>“…the annual bacchanal — where artists and hedonists push the boundaries of their creativity with a brief return to the Sixties ideals of free love and drugs, against a backdrop of thumping electronic music — has become a choice destination for moneyed Silicon Valley executives (alumni include Elon Musk and Larry Page)……(I)         text close family and friends to explain that they will not be able to contact me — at all — for the next five days. There will be no internet or phone signal in this 70,000-strong makeshift tent city. It lends new meaning to the term escapism.</em>\r\n<em>…Commerce is prohibited on the site, in favour of a “gifting economy” in which each camp must “give back” to the desert “playa”, in the form of food, drink or entertainment. Some, such as the “ShamanDome”, offer spiritual fixes; others, intellectual rigour (talks on data privacy). You can guess the selling point of the infamous Orgy Dome…..</em>\r\n<em>But it is a radical expense — close to $500 per ticket including taxes, plus travel (about $150), camp fees ($300), and hiring a bike to get around the sprawling site ($175).The camp system itself also allows for jarring hierarchy ….</em>\r\n<em>…the past few years have seen the emergence of so-called “plug-and-play” camps that promise luxury bed and board without the need to lift a finger; the all-inclusive fees often run into the thousands of dollars. At night-time dance parties, I watch as these blow-ins wiggle atop the “art cars” — mutant vehicles that the richest camps revamp with lights, lasers and mega sound systems — with an entourage in tow snapping pictures.</em>\r\n<em>The clash of cultures is apparent everywhere. In my first few weeks in San Francisco, I met a start-up founder at the Battery, the city’s Soho House for VCs, who proudly told me that he had helped to crowdfund $5m to turn a Boeing 747 aircraft hangar into “the biggest party bus ever”. His vision came to pass. But during the week, I learn of a plan to storm the plane, which has apparently been rather exclusive in its door policy. “Let’s show everyone the true meaning of ‘Radical Inclusion’,” the organisers threatened in a post on Facebook.“They burn the man today; but they become the man again tomorrow,” one festivalgoer complains. Coming by way of San Francisco, where the tech boom has led to widening income inequality, such resentment is sadly familiar….</em>\r\n<em>… Despite our shared distaste for the influencers’ incursions into the festival, we are now busily uploading our snaps of the week to social media. And we are not alone. The hashtag #burningman has more than a million posts on Instagram, with #burnerbabes and #burnerettes not far behind. “Most of the people at Burning Man want to give rather than take, and live rather than ‘gram,” one idealistic campmate says when I ask him to sum up the week.”</em>', 'Burning Man diary: sticking it to the Man with Ray Dalio', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'burning-man-diary-sticking-it-to-the-man-with-ray-dalio', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:57:46', '2019-11-05 11:57:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1693', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1694, 1, '2019-09-20 06:02:12', '2019-09-20 06:02:12', 'A lively account of her first visit to the ‘Burning Man’ by Hannah Murphy this year, a year when Ray Dalio, the iconic hedge fund manager at Bridgewater Associates, proudly endorsed the event on social media as a place with great vibe and amazing creativity. Yet Hannah draws us to the ‘palpable tension that the festival aspires to be and its reality’ akin to the growing inequalities in society today.\r\n<em>“…the annual bacchanal — where artists and hedonists push the boundaries of their creativity with a brief return to the Sixties ideals of free love and drugs, against a backdrop of thumping electronic music — has become a choice destination for moneyed Silicon Valley executives (alumni include Elon Musk and Larry Page)……(I)         text close family and friends to explain that they will not be able to contact me — at all — for the next five days. There will be no internet or phone signal in this 70,000-strong makeshift tent city. It lends new meaning to the term escapism.</em>\r\n<em>…Commerce is prohibited on the site, in favour of a “gifting economy” in which each camp must “give back” to the desert “playa”, in the form of food, drink or entertainment. Some, such as the “ShamanDome”, offer spiritual fixes; others, intellectual rigour (talks on data privacy). You can guess the selling point of the infamous Orgy Dome…..</em>\r\n<em>But it is a radical expense — close to $500 per ticket including taxes, plus travel (about $150), camp fees ($300), and hiring a bike to get around the sprawling site ($175).The camp system itself also allows for jarring hierarchy ….</em>\r\n<em>…the past few years have seen the emergence of so-called “plug-and-play” camps that promise luxury bed and board without the need to lift a finger; the all-inclusive fees often run into the thousands of dollars. At night-time dance parties, I watch as these blow-ins wiggle atop the “art cars” — mutant vehicles that the richest camps revamp with lights, lasers and mega sound systems — with an entourage in tow snapping pictures.</em>\r\n<em>The clash of cultures is apparent everywhere. In my first few weeks in San Francisco, I met a start-up founder at the Battery, the city’s Soho House for VCs, who proudly told me that he had helped to crowdfund $5m to turn a Boeing 747 aircraft hangar into “the biggest party bus ever”. His vision came to pass. But during the week, I learn of a plan to storm the plane, which has apparently been rather exclusive in its door policy. “Let’s show everyone the true meaning of ‘Radical Inclusion’,” the organisers threatened in a post on Facebook.“They burn the man today; but they become the man again tomorrow,” one festivalgoer complains. Coming by way of San Francisco, where the tech boom has led to widening income inequality, such resentment is sadly familiar….</em>\r\n<em>… Despite our shared distaste for the influencers’ incursions into the festival, we are now busily uploading our snaps of the week to social media. And we are not alone. The hashtag #burningman has more than a million posts on Instagram, with #burnerbabes and #burnerettes not far behind. “Most of the people at Burning Man want to give rather than take, and live rather than ‘gram,” one idealistic campmate says when I ask him to sum up the week.”</em>', 'Burning Man diary: sticking it to the Man with Ray Dalio', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1693-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:02:12', '2019-09-20 06:02:12', '', 1693, 'http://marcellus.in/1693-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1695, 1, '2019-09-08 06:02:18', '2019-09-08 06:02:18', 'At Marcellus, our endeavour is to find unusual promoters/companies who look at the industry they operate in very differently from others and change the entire contours of the industry in their favour. Whether it is Asian Paints (who focused on supply chain optimisation when the rest focused on product) or HDFC Bank (who focused on the liabilities franchise when others were focusing on growing assets), these unusual companies continuously elevate entry barriers around their businesses which make it difficult to surmount for competitors and allows them to consistently compound their earnings for long periods of time. In this blog, John Paul Koning talks about one such global franchise - Starbucks, the wordl\'s largest coffee chain and how it thought out of the box to raise interest free loan from its customers.\r\nJohn refers to Starbucks Annual Report to show that it has USD 1.6bn in stored value card liabilities outstanding. This represents the sum of all physical gift cards held in customer\'s wallets as well as the digital value of electronic balances held in the Starbucks Mobile App. It amounts to ~6% of all of the company\'s liabilities with zero interest payout. By launching physical gift cards and mobile app, Starbucks not only gets interest free loan from its loyal customers but have locked down future revenue as well. Starbucks can use the money in higher-yielding opportunities like funding its operations and expansion.\r\nOn the top of providing interest free loan via pre-paid cards to Starbucks, many customers forget to use the card which results in windfall gains for Starbucks.<em> “Each year Starbucks recognizes that a portion of its stored value liabilities will be permanently lost. This is known as breakage. Starbucks recognizes this amount as profit. In 2018 the company recognized $155 million in breakage, around 10% of all stored value balances. Wow! Starbucks already pays just 0% on its debts to customers, but add in breakage and that equates to a roughly -10% interest rate!”</em>\r\nNo other retailer in US has been as successful as Starbucks to raise money via gift cards. Walmart\'s annual sales are 20x larger than Starbucks sales (~$500b vs $25b). But Walmart only has $1.9 billion in unredeemed gift card balances, not much more than Starbucks. Starbucks is really good at harvesting seigniorage and it is also one of its secret sauce of success.', 'Starbucks, monetary superpower', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'starbucks-monetary-superpower', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:55:13', '2019-11-05 11:55:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1695', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1696, 1, '2019-09-20 06:03:16', '2019-09-20 06:03:16', 'At Marcellus, our endeavour is to find unusual promoters/companies who look at the industry they operate in very differently from others and change the entire contours of the industry in their favour. Whether it is Asian Paints (who focused on supply chain optimisation when the rest focused on product) or HDFC Bank (who focused on the liabilities franchise when others were focusing on growing assets), these unusual companies continuously elevate entry barriers around their businesses which make it difficult to surmount for competitors and allows them to consistently compound their earnings for long periods of time. In this blog, John Paul Koning talks about one such global franchise - Starbucks, the wordl\'s largest coffee chain and how it thought out of the box to raise interest free loan from its customers.\r\nJohn refers to Starbucks Annual Report to show that it has USD 1.6bn in stored value card liabilities outstanding. This represents the sum of all physical gift cards held in customer\'s wallets as well as the digital value of electronic balances held in the Starbucks Mobile App. It amounts to ~6% of all of the company\'s liabilities with zero interest payout. By launching physical gift cards and mobile app, Starbucks not only gets interest free loan from its loyal customers but have locked down future revenue as well. Starbucks can use the money in higher-yielding opportunities like funding its operations and expansion.\r\nOn the top of providing interest free loan via pre-paid cards to Starbucks, many customers forget to use the card which results in windfall gains for Starbucks.<em> “Each year Starbucks recognizes that a portion of its stored value liabilities will be permanently lost. This is known as breakage. Starbucks recognizes this amount as profit. In 2018 the company recognized $155 million in breakage, around 10% of all stored value balances. Wow! Starbucks already pays just 0% on its debts to customers, but add in breakage and that equates to a roughly -10% interest rate!”</em>\r\nNo other retailer in US has been as successful as Starbucks to raise money via gift cards. Walmart\'s annual sales are 20x larger than Starbucks sales (~$500b vs $25b). But Walmart only has $1.9 billion in unredeemed gift card balances, not much more than Starbucks. Starbucks is really good at harvesting seigniorage and it is also one of its secret sauce of success.', 'Starbucks, monetary superpower', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1695-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:03:16', '2019-09-20 06:03:16', '', 1695, 'http://marcellus.in/1695-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1697, 1, '2019-09-20 06:04:10', '2019-09-20 06:04:10', 'In the wake of growing concerns from the rise of the ‘Big corporate’, two weeks ago, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82d45cbd24&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82d45cbd24%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTg5qZ2bZ3HTIqqM42EWARuDVJSg\">an American corporate lobby comprised of CEOs</a> of some of the largest corporates pledged to look beyond just shareholder interests and instead become inclusive in terms of taking care of customers, employees, vendors and the society at large. Perhaps, an appropriate time for William Dalrymple, the Scottish historian settled in India to come up with his new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=37b683e7f2&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D37b683e7f2%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEw3MZZjTsBTZFgAxVEbs_a1rMngA\">‘The Anarchy’</a> which tracks the evolution of the East India Company into a giant and ruthless corporation. In this leading piece in the FT, Dalrymple gives a sense of how big and influential really was the world’s first ‘big corporate’ and puts that in the context of today’s monopolistic behemoths such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc. The East India Company’s influence was far and wide including triggering the American War of Independence on the back of the Boston Tea Party where the company’s tea trade from China to the west got on the wrong side of the patriots. Dalrymple clarifies that more than colonialism the British rule of the Indian sub-continent was a result of unbridled profit motives of the EIC, a company effectively set up by a bunch of traders to look beyond the European continent as Britain got sidelined by the Protestant-Catholic rift with mainland Europe (a Brexit of sorts, says John Gapper). Indeed the company got so powerful in the context of the nation state itself that it ended up morphing into a colonial rule. Dalrymple notes that at some stage the private security force of the company was twice the size of the British army. Dalrymple concludes that whilst today’s ‘Big Corporates’ may not need armies of their own, their influence on governments and hence legislations will in some ways resemble the EIC.\r\n\r\n<em>“We still talk about the British conquering India, but that phrase disguises a more sinister reality. For it was not the British government that began seizing chunks of India in the mid-18th century, but a dangerously unregulated private company headquartered in one small office, five windows wide, in London, and managed in India by a violent, ruthless and mentally unstable corporate predator — Robert Clive. India’s transition to colonialism, in other words, took place under a for-profit corporation, which existed entirely for the purpose of enriching its investors.</em>\r\n<em>…By the beginning of the 19th century, the East India Company had become, as one of its directors admitted, “an empire within an empire”, with the power to make war or peace anywhere in the east. The EIC had created a vast and sophisticated administration and civil service in India, and built much of London’s Docklands. Its annual spending in Britain — around £8.5m — equalled about a quarter of total British government annual expenditure. No wonder the Company now referred to itself as “the grandest society of merchants in the Universe”. Its private armies were larger than those of almost all nation-states and its power encircled the globe; indeed, its shares were a kind of global reserve currency. As the parliamentarian Edmund Burke wrote: “The Constitution of the Company began in commerce and ended in Empire.”…</em>\r\n<em>….When people voice fears today about the power of corporations and the way global companies can find ways around the laws and the legislatures of individual nation-states, it is no accident that they sound like 18th-century commentators such as Horace Walpole, who decried the way that EIC wealth had corrupted parliament: “What is England now?” he asked, but “a sink of Indian wealth, filled by nabobs [with] . . . a Senate sold and despised.”…”</em>', 'Lessons for Capitalism from the East India Company', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:04:10', '2019-09-20 06:04:10', '', 1685, 'http://marcellus.in/1685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1698, 1, '2019-09-15 06:09:13', '2019-09-15 06:09:13', 'The old fashioned merchant – who was almost crushed in the 20<sup>th</sup> century - is staging a comeback, not in the real world, but on the internet. There are two ways that merchants can ride on the internet. First up is Amazon: <em>“Many of today’s e-merchants sell in a digital marketplace, akin to a medieval town square. That mostly means Amazon, which handles almost half of American online sales on behalf of 1.9m suppliers. Its reputation for providing support to sellers is iffy. But it compensates by offering them an endless stream of customers, including 100m Prime subscribers who buy frequently and enjoy free, speedy delivery.”</em>\r\nSecondly, merchants can strike out on their own: <em>“Some online retailers, however, prefer to strike out on their own, like the craftsmen of old. They are developing “microbrands” they peddle themselves, handling payment, delivery and other customer relationships. But they can use assistance, of the sort that the guilds of yore offered their predecessors. Enter Shopify, a Canadian software firm whose value has rocketed by 180% in the past year, to $45bn, eclipsing eBay, a better-known veteran of e-commerce…Amazon excels at making consumers cheerful. Shopify, by contrast, is focused squarely on its merchants.”</em>\r\nShopify’s accidental birth explains why it has became a valuable route-to-market for merchants who are wary of Amazon: <em>“Its boss, Tobi Lütke, epitomised the new breed of digital merchants when he set out, with friends, to build an online snowboard shop, Snowdevil, in 2004. At the time, selling online meant one of a few things. You could spend a small fortune, either on developing your own sales channel or paying someone like IBM to build one for you, which only deep-pocketed firms could afford. Alternatively, you could rely on Amazon, sacrifice part of your margins and, with your product being delivered in Amazon’s boxes, cede control over your relations with the customer. Worse still, you risked being elbowed out if it created its own version of your wares….</em>\r\n<em>Mr Lütke built his own platform. Within two years he had switched from selling snowboards to software. In the process Shopify glided stealthily into the e-commerce big leagues without going head to head with Amazon, as Walmart, Target and other big retailers have done, sometimes with soul-sapping results. Its success has put further strain on bricks-and-mortar shops, which were already dying in droves.</em>\r\n<em>Unlike Amazon, Shopify keeps out of the relationship between merchants and their customers. To the buyers, it is invisible. To the sellers, who flogged $41bn-worth of stuff on its platform last year, it can be indispensable. They range from fashionistas of the Kardashian clan, mattress sellers, gym-wear specialists and Canadian marijuana growers to venerable brands such as Lay’s potato chips (owned by PepsiCo). Some have grown with Shopify from scratch to selling billions of dollars of merchandise.”</em>\r\nNot only has Shopify grown fast (it is America’s third-largest online retailer by volume of goods sold after Amazon and eBay), it has also built formidable competitive advantages: <em>“It generates high margins and recurring revenue from merchants, who pay a monthly fee for the software, based on their sales. On top of that, Shopify collects fees for helping run each stage of their e-commerce business, from designing an online store and advertising on social-media sites such as Instagram to processing payments and arranging logistics. This is the fastest-growing part of its business, though it is less profitable than selling software subscriptions.”</em>', 'Shopify and the return of the merchant class', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'shopify-and-the-return-of-the-merchant-class', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:52:32', '2019-11-05 11:52:32', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1698', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1699, 1, '2019-09-20 06:10:28', '2019-09-20 06:10:28', 'The old fashioned merchant – who was almost crushed in the 20<sup>th</sup> century - is staging a comeback, not in the real world, but on the internet. There are two ways that merchants can ride on the internet. First up is Amazon: <em>“Many of today’s e-merchants sell in a digital marketplace, akin to a medieval town square. That mostly means Amazon, which handles almost half of American online sales on behalf of 1.9m suppliers. Its reputation for providing support to sellers is iffy. But it compensates by offering them an endless stream of customers, including 100m Prime subscribers who buy frequently and enjoy free, speedy delivery.”</em>\r\nSecondly, merchants can strike out on their own: <em>“Some online retailers, however, prefer to strike out on their own, like the craftsmen of old. They are developing “microbrands” they peddle themselves, handling payment, delivery and other customer relationships. But they can use assistance, of the sort that the guilds of yore offered their predecessors. Enter Shopify, a Canadian software firm whose value has rocketed by 180% in the past year, to $45bn, eclipsing eBay, a better-known veteran of e-commerce…Amazon excels at making consumers cheerful. Shopify, by contrast, is focused squarely on its merchants.”</em>\r\nShopify’s accidental birth explains why it has became a valuable route-to-market for merchants who are wary of Amazon: <em>“Its boss, Tobi Lütke, epitomised the new breed of digital merchants when he set out, with friends, to build an online snowboard shop, Snowdevil, in 2004. At the time, selling online meant one of a few things. You could spend a small fortune, either on developing your own sales channel or paying someone like IBM to build one for you, which only deep-pocketed firms could afford. Alternatively, you could rely on Amazon, sacrifice part of your margins and, with your product being delivered in Amazon’s boxes, cede control over your relations with the customer. Worse still, you risked being elbowed out if it created its own version of your wares….</em>\r\n<em>Mr Lütke built his own platform. Within two years he had switched from selling snowboards to software. In the process Shopify glided stealthily into the e-commerce big leagues without going head to head with Amazon, as Walmart, Target and other big retailers have done, sometimes with soul-sapping results. Its success has put further strain on bricks-and-mortar shops, which were already dying in droves.</em>\r\n<em>Unlike Amazon, Shopify keeps out of the relationship between merchants and their customers. To the buyers, it is invisible. To the sellers, who flogged $41bn-worth of stuff on its platform last year, it can be indispensable. They range from fashionistas of the Kardashian clan, mattress sellers, gym-wear specialists and Canadian marijuana growers to venerable brands such as Lay’s potato chips (owned by PepsiCo). Some have grown with Shopify from scratch to selling billions of dollars of merchandise.”</em>\r\nNot only has Shopify grown fast (it is America’s third-largest online retailer by volume of goods sold after Amazon and eBay), it has also built formidable competitive advantages: <em>“It generates high margins and recurring revenue from merchants, who pay a monthly fee for the software, based on their sales. On top of that, Shopify collects fees for helping run each stage of their e-commerce business, from designing an online store and advertising on social-media sites such as Instagram to processing payments and arranging logistics. This is the fastest-growing part of its business, though it is less profitable than selling software subscriptions.”</em>', 'Shopify and the return of the merchant class', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1698-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:10:28', '2019-09-20 06:10:28', '', 1698, 'http://marcellus.in/1698-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1700, 1, '2019-09-15 06:10:39', '2019-09-15 06:10:39', 'Diversity in the workplace is no longer a social imperative but a must for businesses who want to avoid blindspots in their understanding of the problem at hand and possible solutions for the same. Especially so in our world of investment management, it is easy for teams that have worked together for long periods of time to get caught in their echo chambers resulting in groupthink and make sub-par investment decisions. This piece in the BBC by Matthew Syed takes the example of the CIA – how the homogeneity at the CIA created blindspots which perhaps a diverse team of analysts could have avoided and potentially prevented 9/11.\r\n<em>“….there is no doubt they hired exceptional people.  \"The two major exams were a SAT-style test to probe a candidate\'s intelligence and a psychological profile to examine their mental state,\" says a CIA veteran. \"The tests filtered out anyone who was not stellar on both tests. In the year I applied, they accepted one candidate for every 20,000 applicants. When the CIA talked about hiring the best, they were bang on the money .\"</em>\r\n<em>And yet most of these recruits also happened to look very similar - white, male, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant Americans.</em>\r\n<em>This is a common phenomenon in recruiting, sometimes called \"homophily\": people tend to hire people who think (and often look) like themselves. It is validating to be surrounded by people who share one\'s perspectives and beliefs. Indeed, brain scans suggest that when others reflect our own thoughts back to us, it stimulates the pleasure centres of our brains.</em>\r\n<em>…..Why did this homogeneity matter? If you are hiring a relay team, don\'t you just want the fastest runners? Why would it matter if they are the same colour, gender, social class, etc?</em>\r\n<em>Yet this logic, while sound for simple tasks like running, flips for complex tasks like intelligence. Why? Because when a problem is complex, no one person has all the answers. We all have blind spots, gaps in our understanding.</em>\r\n<em>This means, in turn, that if you bring a group of people who share similar perspectives and backgrounds, they are liable to share the same blind spots. And this means that far from challenging and addressing these blind spots, they are likely to be reinforced.</em>\r\n<em>….Getting the right mix of diversity in human groups isn\'t easy. There is a science to putting together the right minds, with perspectives that challenge, augment, diverge and cross-pollinate rather than parrot, corroborate and restrict. This is set to become a key source of competitive advantage for organisations, not to mention security agencies. This is how wholes become more than the sum of their parts. “</em>', 'The CIA, 9/11 and collective blindness', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-cia-9-11-and-collective-blindness', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:50:58', '2019-11-05 11:50:58', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1700', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1701, 1, '2019-09-20 06:11:25', '2019-09-20 06:11:25', 'Diversity in the workplace is no longer a social imperative but a must for businesses who want to avoid blindspots in their understanding of the problem at hand and possible solutions for the same. Especially so in our world of investment management, it is easy for teams that have worked together for long periods of time to get caught in their echo chambers resulting in groupthink and make sub-par investment decisions. This piece in the BBC by Matthew Syed takes the example of the CIA – how the homogeneity at the CIA created blindspots which perhaps a diverse team of analysts could have avoided and potentially prevented 9/11.\r\n<em>“….there is no doubt they hired exceptional people.  \"The two major exams were a SAT-style test to probe a candidate\'s intelligence and a psychological profile to examine their mental state,\" says a CIA veteran. \"The tests filtered out anyone who was not stellar on both tests. In the year I applied, they accepted one candidate for every 20,000 applicants. When the CIA talked about hiring the best, they were bang on the money .\"</em>\r\n<em>And yet most of these recruits also happened to look very similar - white, male, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant Americans.</em>\r\n<em>This is a common phenomenon in recruiting, sometimes called \"homophily\": people tend to hire people who think (and often look) like themselves. It is validating to be surrounded by people who share one\'s perspectives and beliefs. Indeed, brain scans suggest that when others reflect our own thoughts back to us, it stimulates the pleasure centres of our brains.</em>\r\n<em>…..Why did this homogeneity matter? If you are hiring a relay team, don\'t you just want the fastest runners? Why would it matter if they are the same colour, gender, social class, etc?</em>\r\n<em>Yet this logic, while sound for simple tasks like running, flips for complex tasks like intelligence. Why? Because when a problem is complex, no one person has all the answers. We all have blind spots, gaps in our understanding.</em>\r\n<em>This means, in turn, that if you bring a group of people who share similar perspectives and backgrounds, they are liable to share the same blind spots. And this means that far from challenging and addressing these blind spots, they are likely to be reinforced.</em>\r\n<em>….Getting the right mix of diversity in human groups isn\'t easy. There is a science to putting together the right minds, with perspectives that challenge, augment, diverge and cross-pollinate rather than parrot, corroborate and restrict. This is set to become a key source of competitive advantage for organisations, not to mention security agencies. This is how wholes become more than the sum of their parts. “</em>', 'The CIA, 9/11 and collective blindness', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1700-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:11:25', '2019-09-20 06:11:25', '', 1700, 'http://marcellus.in/1700-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1702, 1, '2019-09-15 06:11:35', '2019-09-15 06:11:35', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nine years ago Simon Sinek shot to fame with his incredibly popular <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9c12a24b92&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9c12a24b92%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFj48ad-ILBceFVaNITzMdxIdU1jw\">Ted Talk</a> which has now had more than 10m views on YouTube. His books <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ec05eef568&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dec05eef568%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFm73ba8ffb5vGUmOdB5nhI49Oy8w\">Start With Why</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b847ad0f43&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db847ad0f43%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELU5iNynrsjecr_atV4XREZVP89w\">Leaders Eat Last</a> have been an inspiration yet a guide for those looking to build businesses with purpose and with people who trust in you and help chart the course. In his latest book, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82f631f97d&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82f631f97d%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxwxYizVLzrJW5vTdW2A7P6B6zIA\">The Infinite Game</a>, he extends those principles for those who want to build businesses that outlast them. This blog is an excerpt from Workday’s Greg Thomas’ interview with Sinek which succinctly captures the key takeaways from the book. To set the context, Sinek cites the example of the Vietnamese war which the Americans lost despite winning all the battles. Sinek says <em>‘It’s not so much that America lost the war, it’s that America was fighting to win and the North Vietnamese were fighting for their lives. America didn’t lose, they ran out of the will or the resources to stay in the game and dropped out of it.</em>’ For all of us at Marcellus as much as anyone else hoping to build a lasting business, it is important to distinguish the battles from the war – play the infinite game.</p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>How does the concept of the infinite game mindset apply in business?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>There is no such thing as winning business—it doesn’t exist. We can have wins inside a business like you can have battles, but there’s no such thing as “winning” business. The problem is too many business owners, too many leaders don’t know the game they’re playing. They talk about being number one, being the best, beating their competition. Based upon what agreed-upon metrics? Based upon what agreed upon timeframes? There’s no such thing.</em>\r\n<em>When we play with a finite mindset in the infinite game, there are a few very consistent and predictable things that happen. Over the course of time, you will see a decline in trust, cooperation, and innovation. Eventually, your organization will run out of the will or the resources to stay in the game. We call it bankruptcy; we call it a merger and acquisition.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What factors shape an infinite mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>First, you have to have a just cause. A cause so just that you would willingly sacrifice your interest to advance that cause.</em>\r\n<em>Second, you have to have trusting teams. It means that we work with and for people such that we can raise our hands and say, “I made a mistake or I’m scared or I have troubles at home and they’re affecting my work,” without any fear of humiliation and retribution.</em>\r\n<em>Third, you have to have a worthy rival. They reveal to us our weaknesses; that’s what makes us so uncomfortable in their presence or when their names come up. Instead of getting angry about them, try to learn what it is about them that people admire and love so much, and maybe focus that energy into working on ourselves. Self-improvement. Every day. Constantly.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, you have to have the capacity for existential flexibility. This is much bigger than the daily flexibility that we need to have in our jobs. An existential flex is the capacity to make a dramatically huge strategic shift in an entirely new direction to advance our cause.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, you have to have the courage to lead. That means the courage to say, “That’s bad for business, and I’m going to do it differently.” People may call you naïve and say you don’t understand the business. You may say they don’t understand the game they’re playing. That takes tremendous courage.</em>\r\n<em>When I talk about existential flexibility, I’m talking about the ability to massively shift an entire business model because it’s the right thing to do to advance the movement. Why is it that the technology industry invented the electronic book, and not the publishing industry? Because publishing thought they were in the book business, not the reading business. Why is it that the movie industry and the television industry didn’t invent Netflix? It’s because companies can be so preoccupied with protecting the status quo they don’t make these existential flexes until they’re forced to, and then they’re playing defense the entire time.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>Regarding existential flexibility—how can companies structure their organization in a way that promotes this agile mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>In order for you to have the capacity for existential flexibility you better have a crystal clear just cause, because that’s what will direct the decisions. Also, you better work with people who love you and trust you because there’s going to be short-term pain, and you’re going to have to have people who are going to go along with you because they believe that it’s worth it.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What’s your advice for folks to shift towards more of the infinite game mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Most of us are playing with a finite mindset and haven’t given our people any reason to build a company without us. That’s what it means to lead with an infinite mindset: That we will leave our organizations in better shape than we found them, and that we will build organizations that inspire other people to want to continue to build them without us.”</em></p>', 'Simon Sinek: To Succeed in Business, You Must Understand the Game', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'simon-sinek-to-succeed-in-business-you-must-understand-the-game', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1702', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(1703, 1, '2019-09-20 06:12:21', '2019-09-20 06:12:21', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nine years ago Simon Sinek shot to fame with his incredibly popular <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9c12a24b92&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9c12a24b92%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFj48ad-ILBceFVaNITzMdxIdU1jw\">Ted Talk</a> which has now had more than 10m views on YouTube. His books <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ec05eef568&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dec05eef568%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFm73ba8ffb5vGUmOdB5nhI49Oy8w\">Start With Why</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b847ad0f43&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db847ad0f43%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELU5iNynrsjecr_atV4XREZVP89w\">Leaders Eat Last</a> have been an inspiration yet a guide for those looking to build businesses with purpose and with people who trust in you and help chart the course. In his latest book, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82f631f97d&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82f631f97d%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxwxYizVLzrJW5vTdW2A7P6B6zIA\">The Infinite Game</a>, he extends those principles for those who want to build businesses that outlast them. This blog is an excerpt from Workday’s Greg Thomas’ interview with Sinek which succinctly captures the key takeaways from the book. To set the context, Sinek cites the example of the Vietnamese war which the Americans lost despite winning all the battles. Sinek says <em>‘It’s not so much that America lost the war, it’s that America was fighting to win and the North Vietnamese were fighting for their lives. America didn’t lose, they ran out of the will or the resources to stay in the game and dropped out of it.</em>’ For all of us at Marcellus as much as anyone else hoping to build a lasting business, it is important to distinguish the battles from the war – play the infinite game.</p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>How does the concept of the infinite game mindset apply in business?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>There is no such thing as winning business—it doesn’t exist. We can have wins inside a business like you can have battles, but there’s no such thing as “winning” business. The problem is too many business owners, too many leaders don’t know the game they’re playing. They talk about being number one, being the best, beating their competition. Based upon what agreed-upon metrics? Based upon what agreed upon timeframes? There’s no such thing.</em>\r\n<em>When we play with a finite mindset in the infinite game, there are a few very consistent and predictable things that happen. Over the course of time, you will see a decline in trust, cooperation, and innovation. Eventually, your organization will run out of the will or the resources to stay in the game. We call it bankruptcy; we call it a merger and acquisition.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What factors shape an infinite mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>First, you have to have a just cause. A cause so just that you would willingly sacrifice your interest to advance that cause.</em>\r\n<em>Second, you have to have trusting teams. It means that we work with and for people such that we can raise our hands and say, “I made a mistake or I’m scared or I have troubles at home and they’re affecting my work,” without any fear of humiliation and retribution.</em>\r\n<em>Third, you have to have a worthy rival. They reveal to us our weaknesses; that’s what makes us so uncomfortable in their presence or when their names come up. Instead of getting angry about them, try to learn what it is about them that people admire and love so much, and maybe focus that energy into working on ourselves. Self-improvement. Every day. Constantly.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, you have to have the capacity for existential flexibility. This is much bigger than the daily flexibility that we need to have in our jobs. An existential flex is the capacity to make a dramatically huge strategic shift in an entirely new direction to advance our cause.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, you have to have the courage to lead. That means the courage to say, “That’s bad for business, and I’m going to do it differently.” People may call you naïve and say you don’t understand the business. You may say they don’t understand the game they’re playing. That takes tremendous courage.</em>\r\n<em>When I talk about existential flexibility, I’m talking about the ability to massively shift an entire business model because it’s the right thing to do to advance the movement. Why is it that the technology industry invented the electronic book, and not the publishing industry? Because publishing thought they were in the book business, not the reading business. Why is it that the movie industry and the television industry didn’t invent Netflix? It’s because companies can be so preoccupied with protecting the status quo they don’t make these existential flexes until they’re forced to, and then they’re playing defense the entire time.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>Regarding existential flexibility—how can companies structure their organization in a way that promotes this agile mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>In order for you to have the capacity for existential flexibility you better have a crystal clear just cause, because that’s what will direct the decisions. Also, you better work with people who love you and trust you because there’s going to be short-term pain, and you’re going to have to have people who are going to go along with you because they believe that it’s worth it.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What’s your advice for folks to shift towards more of the infinite game mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Most of us are playing with a finite mindset and haven’t given our people any reason to build a company without us. That’s what it means to lead with an infinite mindset: That we will leave our organizations in better shape than we found them, and that we will build organizations that inspire other people to want to continue to build them without us.”</em></p>', 'Simon Sinek: To Succeed in Business, You Must Understand the Game', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1702-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:12:21', '2019-09-20 06:12:21', '', 1702, 'http://marcellus.in/1702-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1704, 1, '2019-09-15 06:12:36', '2019-09-15 06:12:36', 'A decade ago Malcolm Gladwell’s bestseller “Outliers” popularised the idea of ‘10,000 hours’: <em>““Ten thousand hours is the magic number of greatness,” Gladwell wrote, drawing on anecdotes from famous success-havers (like Bill Gates and the Beatles), but also on the 1993 paper (which according to Google Scholar has been cited more than 9,800 times)...</em> <em>The original finding was simple, and compelling: The very best, expert players — those who were considered elite — were the ones who had practiced the most. The conclusions implied that deliberate practice was the most important ingredient needed to achieve elite status, more important than inborn characteristics like genetics, or personality”</em>\r\nSo does this idea hold up when subjected to rigorous testing? <em>“The journal Royal Society Open Science published a replication of an influential 1993 study on violin players at a music school in the journal Psychological Review…</em>\r\n<em>The replication — conducted by Brooke Macnamara and Megha Maitra of Case Western Reserve University — included a somewhat larger sample size and tighter study controls, and was preregistered (meaning that the scientists locked their methods and analysis plans in place before they collected any data, preventing them from retroactively changing their premise to fit their findings).</em>\r\n<em>It finds that practice does matter for performance, but not nearly as much as the original article claimed, and surprisingly, it works differently for elite performers.</em>\r\n<em>“In fact, the majority of the best violinists had accumulated less practice alone than the average amount of the good violinists,” the authors write. Practice still mattered: It accounted for 26 percent of the difference between good violinists and the less accomplished students. But the original study claimed that practice accounted for 48 percent of the difference.”</em>\r\nOther people too have found that the original ’10,000 hours’ idea overstresses the importance of practice: <em>“A 2016 meta-analysis — also co-authored by Macnamara — in Perspectives in Psychological Science looked at 33 studies on the relationship between deliberate practice and athletic achievement and found that practice just doesn’t matter that much. More precisely, the analysis found, practice can account for 18 percent of the difference in athletic success. Put another way, if we compare batting averages between two baseball players, the amount of time the players spent in the batting cage would only account for 18 percent of the reason one player’s average is better than the other.</em>\r\n<em>Which isn’t nothing. But it also means that a great many other factors — like genetics, personality, life history, etc. — makes up the majority of the difference. “Almost across the board, practice should improve one’s performance,” Macnamara told me in 2016.</em>\r\n<em>Practice matters, yes. But at the same time, it’s unlikely to bridge the gap between natural superstars and your average player.”</em>', 'The \"10,000-hour rule\" was debunked again', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-10000-hour-rule-was-debunked-again', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:38:39', '2019-11-05 11:38:39', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1704', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1705, 1, '2019-09-20 06:13:26', '2019-09-20 06:13:26', 'A decade ago Malcolm Gladwell’s bestseller “Outliers” popularised the idea of ‘10,000 hours’: <em>““Ten thousand hours is the magic number of greatness,” Gladwell wrote, drawing on anecdotes from famous success-havers (like Bill Gates and the Beatles), but also on the 1993 paper (which according to Google Scholar has been cited more than 9,800 times)...</em> <em>The original finding was simple, and compelling: The very best, expert players — those who were considered elite — were the ones who had practiced the most. The conclusions implied that deliberate practice was the most important ingredient needed to achieve elite status, more important than inborn characteristics like genetics, or personality”</em>\r\nSo does this idea hold up when subjected to rigorous testing? <em>“The journal Royal Society Open Science published a replication of an influential 1993 study on violin players at a music school in the journal Psychological Review…</em>\r\n<em>The replication — conducted by Brooke Macnamara and Megha Maitra of Case Western Reserve University — included a somewhat larger sample size and tighter study controls, and was preregistered (meaning that the scientists locked their methods and analysis plans in place before they collected any data, preventing them from retroactively changing their premise to fit their findings).</em>\r\n<em>It finds that practice does matter for performance, but not nearly as much as the original article claimed, and surprisingly, it works differently for elite performers.</em>\r\n<em>“In fact, the majority of the best violinists had accumulated less practice alone than the average amount of the good violinists,” the authors write. Practice still mattered: It accounted for 26 percent of the difference between good violinists and the less accomplished students. But the original study claimed that practice accounted for 48 percent of the difference.”</em>\r\nOther people too have found that the original ’10,000 hours’ idea overstresses the importance of practice: <em>“A 2016 meta-analysis — also co-authored by Macnamara — in Perspectives in Psychological Science looked at 33 studies on the relationship between deliberate practice and athletic achievement and found that practice just doesn’t matter that much. More precisely, the analysis found, practice can account for 18 percent of the difference in athletic success. Put another way, if we compare batting averages between two baseball players, the amount of time the players spent in the batting cage would only account for 18 percent of the reason one player’s average is better than the other.</em>\r\n<em>Which isn’t nothing. But it also means that a great many other factors — like genetics, personality, life history, etc. — makes up the majority of the difference. “Almost across the board, practice should improve one’s performance,” Macnamara told me in 2016.</em>\r\n<em>Practice matters, yes. But at the same time, it’s unlikely to bridge the gap between natural superstars and your average player.”</em>', 'The \"10,000-hour rule\" was debunked again', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1704-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:13:26', '2019-09-20 06:13:26', '', 1704, 'http://marcellus.in/1704-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1706, 1, '2019-09-15 06:13:38', '2019-09-15 06:13:38', 'With the dust now settled around the seemingly tragic and melodramatic episode of India’s failed attempt to put a lander and a rover on the surface of the moon, here is a fact based account of what indeed has the rest of the mission achieved, in particular the orbiter which has successfully lodged itself to orbit the moon. In this context, it is worth reading my colleague Salil Desai’s blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3f65788de6&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3f65788de6%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083440000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEj2K91aLOiDdZDObHSDOa1M5w1rQ\">Technology, for more than technology’s sake</a>\r\n<em>“The orbiter, connected with the Indian Deep Space Network – a collection of antennas and relays to support its interplanetary missions – is absolutely packed with top-notch tech. Here’s a taste of what that little orbiter will be able to accomplish as it spins around the moon in glorious solitude.</em>\r\n<em>-      Its Terrain Mapping Camera 2, or TMC 2, will be able to develop a detailed cartography of the lunar surface to a fairly decent resolution. This will help create 3D maps of the surface of the moon’s most massive scar, full of elusive, oft-hidden topographies and locked up supplies of water ice.</em>\r\n<em>-      This will be aided by a radar system, one that will be capable of peering into regions of the moon that are perpetually in shadow. The radar will bounce off and warp inside the surface-level formations, and scientists will be able to use these perturbations to calculate the various thicknesses of said formations, including that all-important water ice.</em>\r\n<em>-      The devil is in the details, which is why the infrared spectrometer instrument will come in handy. Using the characteristics of the light being emitted by the rocks lingering at the surface, this piece of kit will be able to identify a range of mineral species, thereby improving our understanding of the moon’s geology and how its south polar region varies from, say, the near side regions sampled by the Apollo missions around half a century earlier.</em>\r\n<em>-      It’s not all about the moon. The orbiter’s X-ray Monitor will look at the fury being emitted by the Sun and its enigmatic, wisp-like corona, in effect allowing scientists to see how much solar radiation makes it to the moon, and how it changes along its journey.</em>\r\n<em>Originally designed to last a year, the orbiters flawless insertion into a stable lunar ballet is now reportedly allowing it to function for almost seven years. Short of a rogue cometary or asteroidal fragment slamming into the orbiter, then, these instruments – and several others – will keep working, providing scientists all over the world with game-changing data until potentially sometime in 2026.</em>\r\n<em>The fact that ISRO managed to place it there is an enormously laudable feat, and act of technical wizardry so immediately rewarding that it almost doesn’t matter that Vikram toppled over and went silent. It is, of course, hugely disappointing that Vikram looks to be unrecoverable. The science it and its Pragyan rover could have carried out in one of the geologically strangest and increasingly strategic parts of the Moon would have been a thrill to see. But, you know, space is hard.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t let that crash-landing get you down, though; the moon still has a brand-new robotic friend, one that will, in time, reveal more of its secrets than anyone can possibly imagine.”</em>', 'India’s Moon Mission Was Anything But A Failure. Here’s Why', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'indias-moon-mission-was-anything-but-a-failure-heres-why', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:15:01', '2019-09-20 06:15:01', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1706', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1707, 1, '2019-09-20 06:15:01', '2019-09-20 06:15:01', 'With the dust now settled around the seemingly tragic and melodramatic episode of India’s failed attempt to put a lander and a rover on the surface of the moon, here is a fact based account of what indeed has the rest of the mission achieved, in particular the orbiter which has successfully lodged itself to orbit the moon. In this context, it is worth reading my colleague Salil Desai’s blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3f65788de6&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3f65788de6%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083440000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEj2K91aLOiDdZDObHSDOa1M5w1rQ\">Technology, for more than technology’s sake</a>\r\n<em>“The orbiter, connected with the Indian Deep Space Network – a collection of antennas and relays to support its interplanetary missions – is absolutely packed with top-notch tech. Here’s a taste of what that little orbiter will be able to accomplish as it spins around the moon in glorious solitude.</em>\r\n<em>-      Its Terrain Mapping Camera 2, or TMC 2, will be able to develop a detailed cartography of the lunar surface to a fairly decent resolution. This will help create 3D maps of the surface of the moon’s most massive scar, full of elusive, oft-hidden topographies and locked up supplies of water ice.</em>\r\n<em>-      This will be aided by a radar system, one that will be capable of peering into regions of the moon that are perpetually in shadow. The radar will bounce off and warp inside the surface-level formations, and scientists will be able to use these perturbations to calculate the various thicknesses of said formations, including that all-important water ice.</em>\r\n<em>-      The devil is in the details, which is why the infrared spectrometer instrument will come in handy. Using the characteristics of the light being emitted by the rocks lingering at the surface, this piece of kit will be able to identify a range of mineral species, thereby improving our understanding of the moon’s geology and how its south polar region varies from, say, the near side regions sampled by the Apollo missions around half a century earlier.</em>\r\n<em>-      It’s not all about the moon. The orbiter’s X-ray Monitor will look at the fury being emitted by the Sun and its enigmatic, wisp-like corona, in effect allowing scientists to see how much solar radiation makes it to the moon, and how it changes along its journey.</em>\r\n<em>Originally designed to last a year, the orbiters flawless insertion into a stable lunar ballet is now reportedly allowing it to function for almost seven years. Short of a rogue cometary or asteroidal fragment slamming into the orbiter, then, these instruments – and several others – will keep working, providing scientists all over the world with game-changing data until potentially sometime in 2026.</em>\r\n<em>The fact that ISRO managed to place it there is an enormously laudable feat, and act of technical wizardry so immediately rewarding that it almost doesn’t matter that Vikram toppled over and went silent. It is, of course, hugely disappointing that Vikram looks to be unrecoverable. The science it and its Pragyan rover could have carried out in one of the geologically strangest and increasingly strategic parts of the Moon would have been a thrill to see. But, you know, space is hard.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t let that crash-landing get you down, though; the moon still has a brand-new robotic friend, one that will, in time, reveal more of its secrets than anyone can possibly imagine.”</em>', 'India’s Moon Mission Was Anything But A Failure. Here’s Why', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1706-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:15:01', '2019-09-20 06:15:01', '', 1706, 'http://marcellus.in/1706-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1708, 1, '2019-09-15 06:15:10', '2019-09-15 06:15:10', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2016/07/18/india-planted-50-million-trees-24-hours/#6523d3066f99\">combination of some massive tree</a>  and growing agricultural intensity.\r\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\r\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\r\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\r\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\r\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\r\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\r\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'human-activity-in-china-and-india-dominates-the-greening-of-earth-nasa-study-shows', '', '', '2019-11-04 08:40:13', '2019-11-04 08:40:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1708', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1709, 1, '2019-09-20 06:16:27', '2019-09-20 06:16:27', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a combination of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dd0d9fc716&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Ddd0d9fc716%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083440000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_2GK-uMZcHdloSzVrjlCf2XBN7w\">some massive tree planting drives</a> and growing agricultural intensity.\r\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\r\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\r\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\r\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\r\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\r\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\r\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1708-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-20 06:16:27', '2019-09-20 06:16:27', '', 1708, 'http://marcellus.in/1708-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1712, 1, '2019-09-25 04:59:49', '2019-09-25 04:59:49', 'At Marcellus, we are big fans of giant data-hungry quant screens which can rigorously sift through years of data on thousands of companies and give us a small set of 25-30 companies on which can do detailed qualitative research. Given such proclivities, we found this piece in Barron’s to be a really interesting read. The article profiles a fund manager called Bob Bergson who runs a US$446mn fund called ‘Northern Small Cap Core’. Barron’s says, <em>“While some fund managers devote the majority of their time to uncovering the very best companies, Bob Bergson has spent nearly a decade making sure that his $446 million Northern Small Cap Core fund avoids the very worst.</em>\r\n<em>It helps that underperforming companies exhibit common traits: declining margins, too much debt, and inadequate cash flow, to name a few. Meanwhile, “successful companies tend to have very individual paths,” says Bergson, 54.”</em>\r\nInterestingly, rather than screening to get the best companies, Bergson screens to avoid the worst: <em>“Bergson uses a factor-based approach to give investors exposure to the broader small-cap universe—minus the worst of the worst. The goal is to capture the outsize return characteristics of small companies, while keeping stock-specific risks and trading costs in check. Over the past decade, the fund (ticker: NSGRX) has returned an average of more than 12% a year, putting it ahead of 87% of its small-blend peers and the Russell 2000 index.”</em>\r\nUnderlying this investment philosophy are some interesting insights from Bergson: <em>““I wanted to understand where you get rewarded for the risk you take and how to avoid the sorts of risks you don’t think you’re getting rewarded for,” says Bergson…</em> <em>“Some of the biggest outsize returns in the space come from the smallest segments of the small-cap universe,” he says, noting that stocks added to the Russell 2000 returned, on average, more than double the index in the year prior. Admittedly, these results are positively skewed—the stocks make it into the index because they outperformed—“but if you don’t have exposure to them, you miss out on a big portion of that upside,” he says. As an added benefit, microcap stocks have a slightly lower correlation to the broader market, he says. In a big selloff, he says, “What do investors sell first? It’s not the microcaps. It’s larger, more liquid securities.”</em>\r\nAlongside this unique investing philosophy, Bergson maintains low levels of churn in his portfolio: <em>“Bergson and his team, which includes four co-managers, don’t screen microcaps for quality. Instead, they aim to own a large sample that reflects sector weightings of the Russell 2000, and keep trading to a minimum. “You let the market, in a sense, reward that exposure,” says Bergson, whose portfolio turnover was recently just 21%....</em> <em>It’s far easier to identify companies that are least likely to succeed, he says. That emphasis on what not to buy helps minimize turnover and saves on trading costs. Eight of the fund’s recent top 10 holdings have been in the portfolio since Bergson took over in 2010…”</em>', 'How a Small-Cap Fund Weeds Out the Worst Stocks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 04:59:49', '2019-09-25 04:59:49', '', 1711, 'http://marcellus.in/1711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1713, 1, '2019-09-22 05:01:29', '2019-09-22 05:01:29', 'A fascinating piece in Vanity Fair about the contradiction that Imran Khan, the Pakistani cricketing superstar and now Prime Minister, has turned out to be. Pakistani author Aatish Taseer compares Imran’s relationships with women of contrastingly different backgrounds to his ambivalent political stances on Islamic extremism or Western influence. Whilst Aatish reckons some of this has strategic intent to balance the forces at play to achieve his ultimate goals, he also suggests such conflicts are in some ways a reflection of the dichotomy that Pakistani society is dealing with. Full of interesting anecdotes, some quite explosive in true Vanity Fair style, Aatish produces a thoroughly entertaining yet thought provoking article on cricket’s most decorated <em>‘allrounder’.</em>\r\n<em>“The distance between the “day-time Khan” and the “night-time Khan,” his biographer suggests, was something that people had noticed about him even in the 1980s, when he was playing county cricket in Britain. But what one can dismiss in a sportsman is harder to ignore in a politician—especially one who is as stern a moralist as Khan. “To the Weekly Standard,” writes Sandford, “he was the ‘Khan artist’ who continued to ‘inveigh against the West by day and enjoy its pleasures by night.’ ” In treating the West as nothing but a source of permissiveness and turning the East into a romantic symbol of purity, Khan provides a fascinating mirror of the cultural confusions and anxieties of our time.</em>\r\n<em>….“Here he is, trying to play a very difficult game,” Salman Rushdie said of Khan at a panel I chaired in Delhi in 2012. (Khan, the chief guest, had withdrawn in protest upon hearing that the author of The Satanic Verses would be present.) Khan, Rushdie said, was “placating the mullahs on one hand, cozying up to the army on the other, while trying to present himself to the West as the modernizing face of Pakistan.” He added acidly, “I’d concentrate on that, Imran. Try and keep those balls in the air. It’s not going to be easy.”</em>\r\n<em>…Into this gladiatorial arena, shirt open, eyes bedroom-y, hair long and tousled, stepped Khan. He was one of those rare figures, like Muhammad Ali, who emerge once a generation on the frontier of sport, sex, and politics. “Imran may not have been the first player to enjoy his own cult following,” writes his biographer Christopher Sandford, “but he was more or less single-handedly responsible for sexualizing what had hitherto been an austere, male-oriented activity patronized at the most devoted level by the obsessed or the disturbed.”</em>\r\n<em>Arrestingly handsome and Oxford-educated, albeit with a third-class degree, Khan found the doors of the British aristocracy thrown open to him. Mark Shand, the brother of Camilla Parker Bowles, now the Duchess of Cornwall, was among his best friends; he was seen out on the town with Jerry Hall and Goldie Hawn; if his second wife, the television personality Reham Khan, is to be believed, he took part in a threesome with Grace Jones. The man who shunned the label of “playboy”—“I have never considered myself a sex symbol,” he told my mother in 1983—nonetheless left a long line of Khan-quests from Bollywood to Hollywood, with a pit stop in Chelsea, where his flat, with its tented ceilings of gold silk, was one part harem, one part bordello. “He had a lot of women in his life,” my uncle, Yousaf Salahuddin, one of Khan’s best friends and a cultural institution in his own right, told me recently in Lahore, “because he was a very wanted man. In India, I have seen women from the age of just 6 to 60 going crazy over him.” In 1995, at age 43, Khan married Jemima Goldsmith, the daughter of the tycoon Jimmy Goldsmith, who is said to have presciently remarked of his son-in-law, “He’ll make an excellent first husband.” As a teenager, I remember gaping over paparazzi photos of the newly wed couple, including some of them in flagrante on a balcony in Marbella. If the fascination with Khan’s sexual prowess was fetishistic in Britain, it was edged with racial pride in Pakistan. As Mohsin Hamid, the country’s most famous writer, told me in Lahore, “Imran Khan was a symbol of emancipatory virility.”</em>\r\n<em>….Khan, like a real-world version of Stannis Baratheon desperately consulting the Red Woman in Game of Thrones, had begun to see Pinky for “spiritual guidance.” The clairvoyant’s usual fee for making the impossible possible, a senior media figure in Karachi told me on condition of anonymity, was great vats of cooked meat. These, he explained, over a Japanese meal, she fed to the jinns she kept at her disposal.</em>\r\n<em>Then he came to the surreal story that is on the lips of everyone in Pakistan, from senior diplomats and ministers to journalists and entertainers. Although Maneka has dismissed it as mere rumor, the story has attained the status of fable—a supernatural tale that seeks to illuminate a deeper truth. Once Maneka had her prophetic vision, the media veteran told me, no amount of cooked meat would suffice to fulfill Khan’s ambition. The voice in her dream was clear: If Imran Khan was to be prime minister, it was imperative he be married to the right woman—i.e., a member of Maneka’s own family.</em>\r\n<em>In one version of this torrid tale, Maneka offered her sister to Khan. In another, it was her daughter. Either way, Khan demurred. Then Maneka went away to dream again. This time, however, she was no bystander to someone else’s vision. The voice in her head told her that she, Bushra Maneka, a married woman and a mother of five, was the wife Imran Khan needed. What Maneka now wanted from Khan was what every woman had ever wanted from him: She wanted him.</em>\r\n<em>Khan had never set eyes on Maneka, for she consulted her followers from behind a veil. But this time, he acceded to her vision. The stars aligned and Maneka’s husband, a customs official, agreed to give her a divorce, praising Khan as a “disciple of our spiritual family.”</em>\r\n<em>In February 2018, cricketer and clairvoyant were married in a private ceremony. Six months later, Imran Khan was elected prime minister of Pakistan, and Pinky Peerni, a character who would stretch the limits of Salman Rushdie’s imagination, was its first lady.”</em>', 'He Is Trying To Play A Very Difficult Game\": The Once And Future Imran Khan', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'he-is-trying-to-play-a-very-difficult-game-the-once-and-future-imran-khan', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:26:36', '2019-11-04 07:26:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1713', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1714, 1, '2019-09-25 05:01:29', '2019-09-25 05:01:29', 'A fascinating piece in Vanity Fair about the contradiction that Imran Khan, the Pakistani cricketing superstar and now Prime Minister, has turned out to be. Pakistani author Aatish Taseer compares Imran’s relationships with women of contrastingly different backgrounds to his ambivalent political stances on Islamic extremism or Western influence. Whilst Aatish reckons some of this has strategic intent to balance the forces at play to achieve his ultimate goals, he also suggests such conflicts are in some ways a reflection of the dichotomy that Pakistani society is dealing with. Full of interesting anecdotes, some quite explosive in true Vanity Fair style, Aatish produces a thoroughly entertaining yet thought provoking article on cricket’s most decorated <em>‘allrounder’.</em>\r\n<em>“The distance between the “day-time Khan” and the “night-time Khan,” his biographer suggests, was something that people had noticed about him even in the 1980s, when he was playing county cricket in Britain. But what one can dismiss in a sportsman is harder to ignore in a politician—especially one who is as stern a moralist as Khan. “To the Weekly Standard,” writes Sandford, “he was the ‘Khan artist’ who continued to ‘inveigh against the West by day and enjoy its pleasures by night.’ ” In treating the West as nothing but a source of permissiveness and turning the East into a romantic symbol of purity, Khan provides a fascinating mirror of the cultural confusions and anxieties of our time.</em>\r\n<em>….“Here he is, trying to play a very difficult game,” Salman Rushdie said of Khan at a panel I chaired in Delhi in 2012. (Khan, the chief guest, had withdrawn in protest upon hearing that the author of The Satanic Verses would be present.) Khan, Rushdie said, was “placating the mullahs on one hand, cozying up to the army on the other, while trying to present himself to the West as the modernizing face of Pakistan.” He added acidly, “I’d concentrate on that, Imran. Try and keep those balls in the air. It’s not going to be easy.”</em>\r\n<em>…Into this gladiatorial arena, shirt open, eyes bedroom-y, hair long and tousled, stepped Khan. He was one of those rare figures, like Muhammad Ali, who emerge once a generation on the frontier of sport, sex, and politics. “Imran may not have been the first player to enjoy his own cult following,” writes his biographer Christopher Sandford, “but he was more or less single-handedly responsible for sexualizing what had hitherto been an austere, male-oriented activity patronized at the most devoted level by the obsessed or the disturbed.”</em>\r\n<em>Arrestingly handsome and Oxford-educated, albeit with a third-class degree, Khan found the doors of the British aristocracy thrown open to him. Mark Shand, the brother of Camilla Parker Bowles, now the Duchess of Cornwall, was among his best friends; he was seen out on the town with Jerry Hall and Goldie Hawn; if his second wife, the television personality Reham Khan, is to be believed, he took part in a threesome with Grace Jones. The man who shunned the label of “playboy”—“I have never considered myself a sex symbol,” he told my mother in 1983—nonetheless left a long line of Khan-quests from Bollywood to Hollywood, with a pit stop in Chelsea, where his flat, with its tented ceilings of gold silk, was one part harem, one part bordello. “He had a lot of women in his life,” my uncle, Yousaf Salahuddin, one of Khan’s best friends and a cultural institution in his own right, told me recently in Lahore, “because he was a very wanted man. In India, I have seen women from the age of just 6 to 60 going crazy over him.” In 1995, at age 43, Khan married Jemima Goldsmith, the daughter of the tycoon Jimmy Goldsmith, who is said to have presciently remarked of his son-in-law, “He’ll make an excellent first husband.” As a teenager, I remember gaping over paparazzi photos of the newly wed couple, including some of them in flagrante on a balcony in Marbella. If the fascination with Khan’s sexual prowess was fetishistic in Britain, it was edged with racial pride in Pakistan. As Mohsin Hamid, the country’s most famous writer, told me in Lahore, “Imran Khan was a symbol of emancipatory virility.”</em>\r\n<em>….Khan, like a real-world version of Stannis Baratheon desperately consulting the Red Woman in Game of Thrones, had begun to see Pinky for “spiritual guidance.” The clairvoyant’s usual fee for making the impossible possible, a senior media figure in Karachi told me on condition of anonymity, was great vats of cooked meat. These, he explained, over a Japanese meal, she fed to the jinns she kept at her disposal.</em>\r\n<em>Then he came to the surreal story that is on the lips of everyone in Pakistan, from senior diplomats and ministers to journalists and entertainers. Although Maneka has dismissed it as mere rumor, the story has attained the status of fable—a supernatural tale that seeks to illuminate a deeper truth. Once Maneka had her prophetic vision, the media veteran told me, no amount of cooked meat would suffice to fulfill Khan’s ambition. The voice in her dream was clear: If Imran Khan was to be prime minister, it was imperative he be married to the right woman—i.e., a member of Maneka’s own family.</em>\r\n<em>In one version of this torrid tale, Maneka offered her sister to Khan. In another, it was her daughter. Either way, Khan demurred. Then Maneka went away to dream again. This time, however, she was no bystander to someone else’s vision. The voice in her head told her that she, Bushra Maneka, a married woman and a mother of five, was the wife Imran Khan needed. What Maneka now wanted from Khan was what every woman had ever wanted from him: She wanted him.</em>\r\n<em>Khan had never set eyes on Maneka, for she consulted her followers from behind a veil. But this time, he acceded to her vision. The stars aligned and Maneka’s husband, a customs official, agreed to give her a divorce, praising Khan as a “disciple of our spiritual family.”</em>\r\n<em>In February 2018, cricketer and clairvoyant were married in a private ceremony. Six months later, Imran Khan was elected prime minister of Pakistan, and Pinky Peerni, a character who would stretch the limits of Salman Rushdie’s imagination, was its first lady.”</em>', 'He Is Trying To Play A Very Difficult Game\": The Once And Future Imran Khan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1713-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 05:01:29', '2019-09-25 05:01:29', '', 1713, 'http://marcellus.in/1713-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1715, 1, '2019-09-22 05:01:44', '2019-09-22 05:01:44', 'Four weeks ago, the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ee32125f54&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dee32125f54%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569473621625000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzMQLgD5616YseUvrdOQEA42eiHw\">Business Roundtable</a>, a group of CEOs from the world’s largest corporations issued a statement that corporates should move from just focusing on maximising value for shareholders to benefit a wider group of stakeholders – customers, employees, vendors and the community at large. This statement has reignited the debate against capitalism and the consequent effects of inequality across political and economist circles alike. Martin Wolf of the FT offers his perspective on the debate in this lucid piece where he lays the blame primarily on rentier capitalism or financialisation of the global economy among other things. Wolf points out financial services as an industry and finance professionals have gained disproportionately in the last four decades with little contribution to the real economy or productivity growth, some would argue that the contribution has indeed been negative.\r\n<em>“Finance plays a key role, with several dimensions. Liberalised finance tends to metastasise, like a cancer. Thus, the financial sector’s ability to create credit and money finances its own activities, incomes and (often illusory) profits.</em>\r\n<em>A 2015 study by Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi for the Bank for International Settlements said “the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth, and that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth”. When the financial sector grows quickly, they argue, it hires talented people.</em>\r\n<em>These then lend against property, because it generates collateral. This is a diversion of talented human resources in unproductive, useless directions.</em>\r\n<em>Again, excessive growth of credit almost always leads to crises, as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff showed in This Time is Different. This is why no modern government dares let the supposedly market-driven financial sector operate unaided and unguided. But that in turn creates huge opportunities to gain from irresponsibility: heads, they win; tails, the rest of us lose. Further crises are guaranteed.</em>\r\n<em>Finance also creates rising inequality. Thomas Philippon of the Stern School of Business and Ariell Reshef of the Paris School of Economics showed that the relative earnings of finance professionals exploded upwards in the 1980s with the deregulation of finance. They estimated that “rents” — earnings over and above those needed to attract people into the industry — accounted for 30-50 per cent of the pay differential between finance professionals and the rest of the private sector.</em>\r\n<em>This explosion of financial activity since 1980 has not raised the growth of productivity. If anything, it has lowered it, especially since the crisis. The same is true of the explosion in pay of corporate management, yet another form of rent extraction. As Deborah Hargreaves, founder of the High Pay Centre, notes, in the UK the ratio of average chief executive pay to that of average workers rose from 48 to one in 1998 to 129 to one in 2016. In the US, the same ratio rose from 42 to one in 1980 to 347 to one in 2017.</em>\r\n<em>As the US essayist HL Mencken wrote: “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” Pay linked to the share price gave management a huge incentive to raise that price, by manipulating earnings or borrowing money to buy the shares. Neither adds value to the company. But they can add a great deal of wealth to management. A related problem with governance is conflicts of interest, notably over independence of auditors.</em>\r\n<em>In sum, personal financial considerations permeate corporate decision-making. As the independent economist Andrew Smithers argues in Productivity and the Bonus Culture, this comes at the expense of corporate investment and so of long-run productivity growth.”</em>', 'Why rigged capitalism is damaging liberal democracy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-rigged-capitalism-is-damaging-liberal-democracy', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:26:02', '2019-11-04 07:26:02', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1715', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1716, 1, '2019-09-25 05:02:56', '2019-09-25 05:02:56', 'Four weeks ago, the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ee32125f54&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dee32125f54%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569473621625000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzMQLgD5616YseUvrdOQEA42eiHw\">Business Roundtable</a>, a group of CEOs from the world’s largest corporations issued a statement that corporates should move from just focusing on maximising value for shareholders to benefit a wider group of stakeholders – customers, employees, vendors and the community at large. This statement has reignited the debate against capitalism and the consequent effects of inequality across political and economist circles alike. Martin Wolf of the FT offers his perspective on the debate in this lucid piece where he lays the blame primarily on rentier capitalism or financialisation of the global economy among other things. Wolf points out financial services as an industry and finance professionals have gained disproportionately in the last four decades with little contribution to the real economy or productivity growth, some would argue that the contribution has indeed been negative.\r\n<em>“Finance plays a key role, with several dimensions. Liberalised finance tends to metastasise, like a cancer. Thus, the financial sector’s ability to create credit and money finances its own activities, incomes and (often illusory) profits.</em>\r\n<em>A 2015 study by Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi for the Bank for International Settlements said “the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth, and that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth”. When the financial sector grows quickly, they argue, it hires talented people.</em>\r\n<em>These then lend against property, because it generates collateral. This is a diversion of talented human resources in unproductive, useless directions.</em>\r\n<em>Again, excessive growth of credit almost always leads to crises, as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff showed in This Time is Different. This is why no modern government dares let the supposedly market-driven financial sector operate unaided and unguided. But that in turn creates huge opportunities to gain from irresponsibility: heads, they win; tails, the rest of us lose. Further crises are guaranteed.</em>\r\n<em>Finance also creates rising inequality. Thomas Philippon of the Stern School of Business and Ariell Reshef of the Paris School of Economics showed that the relative earnings of finance professionals exploded upwards in the 1980s with the deregulation of finance. They estimated that “rents” — earnings over and above those needed to attract people into the industry — accounted for 30-50 per cent of the pay differential between finance professionals and the rest of the private sector.</em>\r\n<em>This explosion of financial activity since 1980 has not raised the growth of productivity. If anything, it has lowered it, especially since the crisis. The same is true of the explosion in pay of corporate management, yet another form of rent extraction. As Deborah Hargreaves, founder of the High Pay Centre, notes, in the UK the ratio of average chief executive pay to that of average workers rose from 48 to one in 1998 to 129 to one in 2016. In the US, the same ratio rose from 42 to one in 1980 to 347 to one in 2017.</em>\r\n<em>As the US essayist HL Mencken wrote: “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” Pay linked to the share price gave management a huge incentive to raise that price, by manipulating earnings or borrowing money to buy the shares. Neither adds value to the company. But they can add a great deal of wealth to management. A related problem with governance is conflicts of interest, notably over independence of auditors.</em>\r\n<em>In sum, personal financial considerations permeate corporate decision-making. As the independent economist Andrew Smithers argues in Productivity and the Bonus Culture, this comes at the expense of corporate investment and so of long-run productivity growth.”</em>', 'Why rigged capitalism is damaging liberal democracy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1715-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 05:02:56', '2019-09-25 05:02:56', '', 1715, 'http://marcellus.in/1715-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1717, 1, '2019-09-22 05:03:13', '2019-09-22 05:03:13', 'It couldn’t have been a better week to be talking about inequality as Thomas Piketty’s new book “Capital and Ideology” is published in French (the English version isn’t due until next year). As the man who brought the inequality debate to the front and centre of all political and economic discourse with his award winning book – <em>“Capital in the 21<sup>st</sup> century”,</em> his self-proclaimed new and improved book could have significant ramifications for policy making especially in the rich world – higher income and wealth taxes for the super-rich.\r\n<em>“And he says his new book addresses two shortcomings of the last one, which was too focused on Western economies, and didn’t give enough space to the political ideologies that lie behind inequality.</em>\r\n<em>“Capital and Ideology’’ ranges across time and geography, with analysis of colonial, slave-owning and communist economies, and references to India, China and Brazil.</em>\r\n<em>“In this book I will try to convince the reader that the lessons of history can be leaned upon to define a more demanding norm of justice and equality,” he writes, in an extract from the new book published by Le Monde newspaper.</em>\r\n<em>Piketty says his conclusion is that it’s a mistake to see inequality as rooted in nature, or driven by changes in technology. Its real causes are to be found in politics and ideology -- and that makes it easier to challenge.</em>\r\n<em>In the new book, according to L’Obs, Piketty argues that no shareholder should control more than 10 per cent of voting rights at a company –- even if they hold a much bigger stake.</em>\r\n<em>He backs a kind of capital handout for the public –- a variant of helicopter money. Piketty’s “inheritance for all’’ would grant all French citizens a lump sum of 120,000 euros ($132,000) when they reach the age of 25.</em>\r\n<em>And he advocates a wealth tax to enshrine the idea that ownership of property above a certain value can only be “temporary’’.</em>\r\n<em>In France, for example, the scale would range from a 0.1 per cent charge on wealth below the national average of 200,000 euros, to as much as 90 per cent.</em>\r\n<em>“The system I propose makes it possible to own several million euros, or even tens of millions, at least for a while,’’ Piketty told L’Obs. “But those with several hundred million euros, or several billion, will have to share power.’’</em>', 'Thomas Piketty Back With a 1,200 Page Guide To Abolishing Billionaires', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'thomas-piketty-back-with-a-1200-page-guide-to-abolishing-billionaires', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:25:25', '2019-11-04 07:25:25', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1717', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1718, 1, '2019-09-25 05:04:17', '2019-09-25 05:04:17', 'It couldn’t have been a better week to be talking about inequality as Thomas Piketty’s new book “Capital and Ideology” is published in French (the English version isn’t due until next year). As the man who brought the inequality debate to the front and centre of all political and economic discourse with his award winning book – <em>“Capital in the 21<sup>st</sup> century”,</em> his self-proclaimed new and improved book could have significant ramifications for policy making especially in the rich world – higher income and wealth taxes for the super-rich.\r\n<em>“And he says his new book addresses two shortcomings of the last one, which was too focused on Western economies, and didn’t give enough space to the political ideologies that lie behind inequality.</em>\r\n<em>“Capital and Ideology’’ ranges across time and geography, with analysis of colonial, slave-owning and communist economies, and references to India, China and Brazil.</em>\r\n<em>“In this book I will try to convince the reader that the lessons of history can be leaned upon to define a more demanding norm of justice and equality,” he writes, in an extract from the new book published by Le Monde newspaper.</em>\r\n<em>Piketty says his conclusion is that it’s a mistake to see inequality as rooted in nature, or driven by changes in technology. Its real causes are to be found in politics and ideology -- and that makes it easier to challenge.</em>\r\n<em>In the new book, according to L’Obs, Piketty argues that no shareholder should control more than 10 per cent of voting rights at a company –- even if they hold a much bigger stake.</em>\r\n<em>He backs a kind of capital handout for the public –- a variant of helicopter money. Piketty’s “inheritance for all’’ would grant all French citizens a lump sum of 120,000 euros ($132,000) when they reach the age of 25.</em>\r\n<em>And he advocates a wealth tax to enshrine the idea that ownership of property above a certain value can only be “temporary’’.</em>\r\n<em>In France, for example, the scale would range from a 0.1 per cent charge on wealth below the national average of 200,000 euros, to as much as 90 per cent.</em>\r\n<em>“The system I propose makes it possible to own several million euros, or even tens of millions, at least for a while,’’ Piketty told L’Obs. “But those with several hundred million euros, or several billion, will have to share power.’’</em>', 'Thomas Piketty Back With a 1,200 Page Guide To Abolishing Billionaires', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1717-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 05:04:17', '2019-09-25 05:04:17', '', 1717, 'http://marcellus.in/1717-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1719, 1, '2019-09-22 05:04:25', '2019-09-22 05:04:25', 'Once upon a time most of the cricketers in the Indian cricket (men’s and women’s) team came from the posh schools in India’s biggest cities. These schools had names like St. Xavier’s, St. Joseph’s, Don Bosco, etc. That era is fading away as kids in the posh schools in big cities spend their lives glued to their phones &amp; ipads. Both the men’s and women’s cricket teams in India now draw their superstars from working class backgrounds – highly driven, talented, hardworking girls &amp; boys, whose parents’ blue collar jobs mean that financing cricket coaching usually maxes out the family’s finances. Mumbai, it would appear, is on its way to producing yet another wunderkind from this highly reliable talent factory which has propelled India’s rise to the top of Test Cricket rankings.\r\n<em>“Vaidehi Ankolekar, a bus conductor with Brihanmumbai Electricity Supply and Transport (BEST) in Mumbai, rushed to her boss at the bus depot in Marol near Andheri on Saturday with a request for an off. The bosses couldn’t say no to her plea as her son Atharva was playing for India in the final of the Under-19 Asia Cup cricket tournament in Colombo in Sri Lanka.</em>\r\n<em>The leave was granted but another problem awaited at home. The cable TV at her house didn’t have the sports channel that was live-telecasting the game. In order to catch the action, Vaidehi hurried to her in-laws place nearby and spent the rest of the day praying for her son. Her prayers didn’t go unanswered.</em>\r\n<em>Atharva, who is a left-arm spinner, starred with a five-wicket haul to enable India beat Bangladesh by five runs in a low-scoring thriller to retain the Asia Cup title. Batting first, India were all out for 106 in 32.4 overs. Atharva ran through Bangladesh’s middle and lower order, including two wickets in what turned out to be the final over of the match. He was adjudged Player of the Match and finished the eight-team tournament as the highest wicket-taker (12)”.</em>\r\nThe budding star’s mum is a single mother who has slogged it out as a conductor in Mumbai’s buses for eight years to finance her son’s career: <em>“When Atharva was ten, his father Vinod Ankolekar had passed away. To support her two sons, Vaidehi took up her husband’s job of conductor in BEST…A single mother’s life isn’t easy, of course. “We didn’t have money to buy his cricketing shoes, someone had helped him. Other day Atharva had called and said not to buy shoes for his younger brother (who is part of Mumbai’s under-14 probables). He said he would buy them from the money he got as daily allowance in Sri Lanka,” she added.”</em>', 'His bus conductor mother praying back home, Atharva Ankolekar steers India to U-19 Asia Cup title', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'his-bus-conductor-mother-praying-back-home-atharva-ankolekar-steers-india-to-u-19-asia-cup-title', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:24:46', '2019-11-04 07:24:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1719', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1720, 1, '2019-09-25 05:06:10', '2019-09-25 05:06:10', 'Once upon a time most of the cricketers in the Indian cricket (men’s and women’s) team came from the posh schools in India’s biggest cities. These schools had names like St. Xavier’s, St. Joseph’s, Don Bosco, etc. That era is fading away as kids in the posh schools in big cities spend their lives glued to their phones &amp; ipads. Both the men’s and women’s cricket teams in India now draw their superstars from working class backgrounds – highly driven, talented, hardworking girls &amp; boys, whose parents’ blue collar jobs mean that financing cricket coaching usually maxes out the family’s finances. Mumbai, it would appear, is on its way to producing yet another wunderkind from this highly reliable talent factory which has propelled India’s rise to the top of Test Cricket rankings.\r\n<em>“Vaidehi Ankolekar, a bus conductor with Brihanmumbai Electricity Supply and Transport (BEST) in Mumbai, rushed to her boss at the bus depot in Marol near Andheri on Saturday with a request for an off. The bosses couldn’t say no to her plea as her son Atharva was playing for India in the final of the Under-19 Asia Cup cricket tournament in Colombo in Sri Lanka.</em>\r\n<em>The leave was granted but another problem awaited at home. The cable TV at her house didn’t have the sports channel that was live-telecasting the game. In order to catch the action, Vaidehi hurried to her in-laws place nearby and spent the rest of the day praying for her son. Her prayers didn’t go unanswered.</em>\r\n<em>Atharva, who is a left-arm spinner, starred with a five-wicket haul to enable India beat Bangladesh by five runs in a low-scoring thriller to retain the Asia Cup title. Batting first, India were all out for 106 in 32.4 overs. Atharva ran through Bangladesh’s middle and lower order, including two wickets in what turned out to be the final over of the match. He was adjudged Player of the Match and finished the eight-team tournament as the highest wicket-taker (12)”.</em>\r\nThe budding star’s mum is a single mother who has slogged it out as a conductor in Mumbai’s buses for eight years to finance her son’s career: <em>“When Atharva was ten, his father Vinod Ankolekar had passed away. To support her two sons, Vaidehi took up her husband’s job of conductor in BEST…A single mother’s life isn’t easy, of course. “We didn’t have money to buy his cricketing shoes, someone had helped him. Other day Atharva had called and said not to buy shoes for his younger brother (who is part of Mumbai’s under-14 probables). He said he would buy them from the money he got as daily allowance in Sri Lanka,” she added.”</em>', 'His bus conductor mother praying back home, Atharva Ankolekar steers India to U-19 Asia Cup title', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1719-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 05:06:10', '2019-09-25 05:06:10', '', 1719, 'http://marcellus.in/1719-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1721, 1, '2019-09-22 05:06:25', '2019-09-22 05:06:25', 'An incredible piece in ESPN on what hours of playing chess can do to your body. Aishwarya Kumar highlights research that shows chess can be as stressful on the body as any other physical sport. The best part of the article however is about the fitness regime of the current world chess champion and a legend already at 29, Magnus Carlsen. Carlsen’s genius is well known but the work ethic to sustain that genius is quite an inspiration. The piece also goes to show why physical fitness is key to succeed in seemingly physically less demanding but mentally stressful vocations, including our own world of investment management. Don’t be surprised if you see a Marcellus portfolio counsellor pumping iron at your neighbourhood gym.\r\n<em>“IT SEEMS ABSURD. How could two humans -- seated for hours, exerting themselves in no greater manner than intermittently extending their arms a foot at a time -- face physical demands?</em>\r\n<em>Still, the evidence overwhelms.</em>\r\n<em>The 1984 World Chess Championship was called off after five months and 48 games because defending champion Anatoly Karpov had lost 22 pounds. \"He looked like death,\" grandmaster and commentator Maurice Ashley recalls.</em>\r\n<em>In 2004, winner Rustam Kasimdzhanov walked away from the six-game world championship having lost 17 pounds. In October 2018, Polar, a U.S.-based company that tracks heart rates, monitored chess players during a tournament and found that 21-year-old Russian grandmaster Mikhail Antipov had burned 560 calories in two hours of sitting and playing chess -- or roughly what Roger Federer would burn in an hour of singles tennis.</em>\r\n<em>Robert Sapolsky, who studies stress in primates at Stanford University, says a chess player can burn up to 6,000 calories a day while playing in a tournament, three times what an average person consumes in a day. Based on breathing rates (which triple during competition), blood pressure (which elevates) and muscle contractions before, during and after major tournaments, Sapolsky suggests that grandmasters\' stress responses to chess are on par with what elite athletes experience.</em>\r\n<em>\"Grandmasters sustain elevated blood pressure for hours in the range found in competitive marathon runners,\" Sapolsky says.</em>\r\n<em>It all combines to produce an average weight loss of 2 pounds a day, or about 10-12 pounds over the course of a 10-day tournament in which each grandmaster might play five or six times.</em>\r\n<em>Grandmasters in competition are subjected to a constant torrent of mental stress. That stress, in turn, causes their heart rates to increase, which, in turn, forces their bodies to produce more energy to, in turn, produce more oxygen. It is, according to Marcus Raichle, a neurologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and Philip Cryer, a metabolism expert at the school, a vicious, destructive cycle.”</em>', 'The grandmaster diet: How to lose weight while barely moving', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-grandmaster-diet-how-to-lose-weight-while-barely-moving', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:28:27', '2019-11-04 07:28:27', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1721', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1722, 1, '2019-09-25 05:07:38', '2019-09-25 05:07:38', 'An incredible piece in ESPN on what hours of playing chess can do to your body. Aishwarya Kumar highlights research that shows chess can be as stressful on the body as any other physical sport. The best part of the article however is about the fitness regime of the current world chess champion and a legend already at 29, Magnus Carlsen. Carlsen’s genius is well known but the work ethic to sustain that genius is quite an inspiration. The piece also goes to show why physical fitness is key to succeed in seemingly physically less demanding but mentally stressful vocations, including our own world of investment management. Don’t be surprised if you see a Marcellus portfolio counsellor pumping iron at your neighbourhood gym.\r\n<em>“IT SEEMS ABSURD. How could two humans -- seated for hours, exerting themselves in no greater manner than intermittently extending their arms a foot at a time -- face physical demands?</em>\r\n<em>Still, the evidence overwhelms.</em>\r\n<em>The 1984 World Chess Championship was called off after five months and 48 games because defending champion Anatoly Karpov had lost 22 pounds. \"He looked like death,\" grandmaster and commentator Maurice Ashley recalls.</em>\r\n<em>In 2004, winner Rustam Kasimdzhanov walked away from the six-game world championship having lost 17 pounds. In October 2018, Polar, a U.S.-based company that tracks heart rates, monitored chess players during a tournament and found that 21-year-old Russian grandmaster Mikhail Antipov had burned 560 calories in two hours of sitting and playing chess -- or roughly what Roger Federer would burn in an hour of singles tennis.</em>\r\n<em>Robert Sapolsky, who studies stress in primates at Stanford University, says a chess player can burn up to 6,000 calories a day while playing in a tournament, three times what an average person consumes in a day. Based on breathing rates (which triple during competition), blood pressure (which elevates) and muscle contractions before, during and after major tournaments, Sapolsky suggests that grandmasters\' stress responses to chess are on par with what elite athletes experience.</em>\r\n<em>\"Grandmasters sustain elevated blood pressure for hours in the range found in competitive marathon runners,\" Sapolsky says.</em>\r\n<em>It all combines to produce an average weight loss of 2 pounds a day, or about 10-12 pounds over the course of a 10-day tournament in which each grandmaster might play five or six times.</em>\r\n<em>Grandmasters in competition are subjected to a constant torrent of mental stress. That stress, in turn, causes their heart rates to increase, which, in turn, forces their bodies to produce more energy to, in turn, produce more oxygen. It is, according to Marcus Raichle, a neurologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and Philip Cryer, a metabolism expert at the school, a vicious, destructive cycle.”</em>', 'The grandmaster diet: How to lose weight while barely moving', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1721-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-25 05:07:38', '2019-09-25 05:07:38', '', 1721, 'http://marcellus.in/1721-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1724, 1, '2019-09-25 06:02:06', '2019-09-25 06:02:06', '<em>Published on: 25 September, 2019</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>As tax evading businesses and investors in real estate stare into the abyss, we look at the forceful resurgence of a north Indian business community which was uprooted by Partition. The Khatris’ history is one of remarkable enterprise and outstanding success punctuated by politically motivated loot of their wealth. Today, with momentum on their side, the Khatris stand second only to the Marwaris in their wealth &amp; power. </strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“The association of the Khatris and Aroras with business is even more deep…In Jalandhar, Amritsar, and the big towns now part of Pakistan (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Multan and Peshawar) the Khatris occupied the commanding heights of business, ahead of the Banias, who ‘were practically unknown to the West of Lahore.’ They controlled much of the region’s business in shawls and woollens and, along with the Shikarpuri Lohanas, also the overland trans-Asian trade in dry fruits, carpets and furs across the Khyber Pass. In addition, there were migrant Khatri trading families who, from the late eighteenth century, had established themselves in the cities of the Gangetic valley as bankers…and military contractors for the Raj…”</em> – <strong>Harish Damodaran</strong> in  “India’s New Capitalists: Caste, Business &amp; Industry in a Modern Nation” (2008)\r\n\r\n<strong>Change produces dislocation…</strong>\r\nIn last week’s note we highlighted how the<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\"> Indian economy</a> is being altered by resets around reduced use of cash, a crackdown on tax evasion, GST and, more generally, the creation of a more integrated, more networked economy (see <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\r\nAs better roads &amp; communication networks create a more integrated economy, the rewards for being a broker, trader or intermediary are falling sharply in India. To take an extreme example, in the early 1990s stockbrokers in Mumbai used to earn commissions in excess of 2%. Now, the same profession struggles to get commissions of 0.10%. Why? Because the rise of modern communication networks and low barriers to entry has crushed the returns to being a stock market intermediary in India. A similar fate seems likely to befall tens of millions of Indians who currently earn a living as retailers, distributors, wholesalers or traders either of daily essentials or of commodities.\r\n\r\n<strong>…and the Khatris have demonstrated how to deal with dislocation</strong>\r\nAs Indian businesses grapple with economic disruption, they can draw inspiration from North India’s remarkable Khatri community which over the past eight hundred years has suffered brutal reverses and reinvented itself repeatedly. Their ability to respond successfully to setbacks and grasp a wide variety of economic opportunities – from manufacturing, to trading &amp; banking, to being entertainers and even civil servants – sets them apart from India’s other great business communities like the Marwaris, the Gujaratis or the Parsis.\r\n\r\nSo, who are the Khatris? From our reading of two really interesting books on India’s business communities – Scott C.Levi’s “Caravans: Punjabi Khatri Merchants on the Silk Road” (2015) and Harish Damodaran’s “India’s New Capitalists: Caste, Business &amp; Industry in a Modern Nation” (2008) – and from our discussions with Khatri businessmen, it would appear that the Khatris are predominantly Punjabis and, to a lesser extent, Sindhis, with roots in two cities – Multan and Shikarpur - which lie on the borders of Sindh and Punjab in present day Pakistan. The community seems to be of Kshatriya (warrior) descent and all ten of Sikhism’s gurus appear to be of Khatri descent. Interestingly, in contemporary Pakistan, there are also Muslim Khatris who trace their origins to the two cities mentioned earlier in this paragraph.\r\n\r\n<strong>From Bankers &amp; Traders to Bollywood &amp; Delhi Royalty: The Khatris’ Reinvention</strong>\r\nThe earliest records we can find of the Khatri ascendancy is in the two hundred years either side of the sixteenth century. In this 400 year period, the Khatris became the spine of India’s trade with what is today Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Russia. Through the passes in the Hindu Kush mountains (Khyber, Bolan, Sangar and Sarwand), the Khatris would take tens of thousands of camels loaded with cotton, spices, weapons &amp; sugar and sell these products in the great bazaars of Iran, central Asia and Russia (all the way up to Moscow). They would then finance the local harvest in the hinterland around market cities like Isfahan, Kandahar, Samarkand, Astrakhan, etc . Then on the way back, the Khatris would import to India hundreds of thoroughbred horses from Central Asia along with dry fruits, fresh fruits, carpets and furs.\r\n\r\nAs Scott Levi says in his book: <em>“We have seen that, from the Middle of the sixteenth century, the Multanis not only mediated India’s trade with Central Asia, they established settlements in key locations beyond the Hindu Kush and laid the foundation for an extensive commercial network that would endure even into the twentieth century. A circulating population of tens of thousands of Multanis, and then Shikarpuris, moved merchandise, wealth and information between north-western India and distant markets of Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran and Russia, eventually reaching as far as Moscow and St.Petersburg…From their time as young apprentices, agents of these family firms were instructed in complicated legal codes, accounting techniques, various methods to calculate interest, and other skills that they would need to utilize the commercial techniques available to them…The agents would then be loaned a large amount of capital, usually in the form of cotton textiles, before they would travel by caravan to a distant market. On arriving at these markets…as they gradually sold their merchandise, the agents would reinvest the cash retrieved in other profitable activities, most notably short-term high interest moneylending ventures. Following this model, agents could realise a 200 to 300 per cent annual increase in their total wealth. After several years – the Multanis’ average tenure abroad was seven or eight years - the agents would return home…”</em>\r\n\r\nThe sheer skill and success of the Multani and Shikarpuri merchants made them obvious targets for envious local elites. The first major attack on the community took place in the middle of the eighteenth century. The Ghilzai Afghans, who occupied the Safavid capital of Isfhan in 1722, came down hard on the Indian merchants by looting and extorting from them. They were overthrown by Nadir Shah in 1736 and he in turn retained policies hostile to the Indians. This gave his supporters a ready excuse to confiscate the Indians’ wealth &amp; properties.\r\n\r\nThe Indian merchants regrouped under the patronage of Ahmed Shah Durrani (who ruled from 1747 to 1722) and shifted base from Multan to Shikarpur (with the latter city being a Durrani protectorate). The next blow to the Indian merchants came with the rise of Imperial Russia (1865-1918) – during the 1870s the Russians implemented a series of policies designed to undermine the Indians’ business interests in Central Asia. And then when the Bolsheviks took charge in Moscow in 1918 it was game over for the Indian businessmen in Central Asia.\r\n\r\nThe Khatris then reinvented themselves as regional merchants, moneylenders and officials in pre-Partition Punjab. As Harish Damodaran says in his book, <em>“The majority were merchants, moneylenders and shopkeepers, if not employed as lawyers, teachers, munshis (clerks) or kanungos (revenue officials…). Moreover, the land to which the Khatris belonged had very little industry or rail infrastructure till well into the twentieth century…industry in Punjab was nothing more than an assortment of flour mills, iron foundries, cotton ginneries and shawl-making and carpet-weaving units. The scope for emergence of big indigenous capital in a primarily agriculture-based, landlocked province was limited.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe Partition of India resulted in the Khatris being dislocated again from their heartland in undivided Punjab. Quoting again from Harish Damodaran’s engrossing book, “<em>The community’s full-fledged emergence on the national business map had to wait for a cataclysmic event like Partition, which literally pushed them in droves towards Delhi and its neighbourhoods. This massive exodus marked a human tragedy unparalleled in history, even as it opened up new avenues for a middle class with sound moorings in education and trade…Proximity to the seat of power provided a platform from where they could be heard and also a vantage position to influence policy. A combination of enterprise, articulation and strategic closeness to the national capital – which, in itself, was becoming a major growth hub…- created conditions for Khatri capital to flourish in the post-Partition period.”</em>\r\n\r\nToday the roll call of prominent Khatri businesses is long enough for this community to be rated second only to the Marwaris in the power &amp; influence they wield especially in the National Capital Region (NCR) which is clearly the Khatris’ stronghold with nearly 10% of the population of India’s capital city belonging to that community. However, since the Marwaris were not dislocated as profoundly as the Khatris by Partition, the rapidity of the Khatris\' rise in independent India marks them out as a uniquely resourceful community.\r\n\r\nProminent Khatri businesses include M&amp;M, HeroMoto, Hero Cycles, Apollo Tyres and most of the auto ancillary companies in the NCR (Subros, Rico, Sona Koyo, etc), the various entities of the Thapar group (Ballarpur, Greaves Cotton, Crompton), Ranbaxy, Max Life, East India Hotels, Berger Paints, the Apeejay group (owners of the Park Hotels chain), the late Ponty Chadha (king of liquor distribution in the North) and the India Today group. Most of India’s sports goods industry – centered around Jalandhar and Meerut – is controlled by Khatris. In Bollywood, the Khatris’ supremacy has been absolute since Independence. Raj Kapoor, BR Chopra, Yash Chopra, Subhas Ghai, Dev Anand, Ekta Kapoor, Prakash Mehra, Shekhar Kapur and Vidhu Vinod Chopra are all Khatris.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nMany of us see communities in static &amp; stereotypical terms eg. the martial Sikh, the cerebral Tamil Brahmin, the creative Bengali, the cunning Marwari. In the midst of great change, such labels become increasingly irrelevant. As Prime Minister Modi rings the reset bell, entire communities in India look likely to see their fortunes fluctuate. The Khatris’ story tells us that enterprising communities with high levels of education, with access to political power and with the adaptability to move across a wide range of professions will excel in the new India. Unsurprisingly, all of the companies in our Consistent Compounder Portfolio which hail from the NCR have promoters from the Khatri community.\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Excelling Amidst Disruption - India’s Khatri Community', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-excelling-amidst-disruption-indias-khatri-community', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:08:35', '2019-11-01 06:08:35', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1724', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(1959, 1, '2019-10-18 08:37:30', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'The Relationship Between Reforms & Returns in India', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2019-10-18 08:37:30', '2019-10-18 08:37:30', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1959', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(1960, 1, '2019-10-18 08:46:17', '2019-10-18 08:46:17', '<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1961 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"708\" height=\"358\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Ever since India started liberalising its economy in the early 1980s, the two-year period following General Elections has always generated positive returns with one exception (1999). In fact, the two years following General Elections have accounted for 80% of the returns generated by the Indian stockmarket. Furthermore, Consistent Compounder stocks have more than adequately participated in these post-Election rallies.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“In Italy, for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance.</em>\r\n<em>In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had 500 years of democracy and peace – and what did they produce? The cuckoo clock.” - </em><strong>Orson Welles as Harry Lime in ‘The Third Man’ (1949)</strong><b></b>\r\n\r\n<strong>The link between General Elections and Sensex returns</strong>\r\nAs the quote above suggests, the impact of good/bad political governance on the stockmarket is less obvious than most imagine it to be. Whatever you or I might think of the quality of successive Indian administrations, of the nine elections that India has seen since 1984 (that being the period when India began liberalising its economy), eight have produced positive stockmarket returns in the two year period following elections (1999 being the only aberration and one that can be blamed on the dotcom bust rather than on domestic factors). Even more remarkably, the average one year and two year post-election returns for the Sensex are 41% and 27% respectively (the two year return is a CAGR figure).\r\n\r\nSince the Sensex’s 35-year CAGR (1984-2019) has been 15% and since the two-year post-election CAGR is 27%, simple arithmetic suggests that <em>the two years following General Elections have driven 80% of the Sensex’s returns in the last 35 years</em><strong><i>.</i></strong> If you believe in the takeaways from historical data, the message is that if you don’t invest in the Indian stockmarket in the two year period following General Elections, you are missing out…bigtime. So why does this link exist and will history repeat itself in the grim economic aftermath of the 2019 General Elections?\r\n\r\n<strong>Why does this link exist?</strong>\r\nIn economic theory, the correlation between election cycles and the economic cycle has been discussed for nearly a century now. As Lisa Chauvet of DIAL (a Paris-based think tank) and Paul Collier of Oxford University pointed out in 2008: <em>“Economic policy is critical for prosperity and so how it is shaped is of enormous importance for developing societies. It is now widely accepted that the struggle for good economic policies and governance is predominantly an internal process within these societies rather than something that can be imposed from outside…Potentially, elections are the key institutional technology of democracy than enables citizens to hold governments to account. While the potential may seem self-evident, quantitative political science research has become rather sceptical of the efficacy of democracy in improving economic performance…We have investigated whether elections have forced governments into policy improvement…</em><strong><i>Elections in developing countries have cyclical effects on policy.</i></strong><em>” </em>[Emphasis in bold is ours]\r\n\r\nIndia’s history, since the early 1980s, points to a close link between political and economic cycles. Specifically, the combination of a decisive electoral mandate and decisive economic reform has typically acted as a major spur for the Sensex even without economic growth being an immediate beneficiary of economic reform. For example, after the 1991 General Election, the economic reforms initiated by the then Congress government presaged a two year drop in GDP growth even as the stockmarket roared away.\r\n\r\nA more recent example is the corporate tax reforms enacted last month wherein not only did the Finance Minister cut the corporate tax rate by nearly 10% points, she also said that manufacturers who set up new plants post 1st October 2019 can avail of a 15% corporate tax rate on the profits generated from the new plants. As explained in our recent newsletter (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e08065e2b1&amp;e=30e8f97910\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De08065e2b1%26e%3D30e8f97910&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571464138839000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgm_N1qckNtS0qLySIlZ0L8EHYbw\">http://marcellus.in/<wbr />newsletter/consistent-<wbr />compounders-benefit-<wbr />disproportionately-from-tax-<wbr />rate-cuts/</a>):\r\n<em>“…the biggest beneficiaries of the cut in corporate tax rates are companies with a combination of high ROCE + high reinvestment rate + high tax rate. Firms which will NOT benefit much from the tax rate cut are those which either do not have avenues for capital reinvestment, or which have low pricing power (and hence will have to sacrifice the gains from the tax cut), or which have low ROCE, or those that are not cash generative. In short, the vast majority of the Indian stockmarket will not benefit from the recent cut in corporate tax rates! Those gains shall, rightfully, go to their consumers...</em>\r\n\r\n<em><b>Consistent Compounders benefit disproportionately from the cut in corporate tax rates</b></em>\r\n<em>As highlighted in exhibit 5 below, the 13 stocks in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) will not only benefit from high existing tax rates (an effect which has been factored into their share price in September already), but also from accelerated earnings growth given their high ROCEs and capital reinvestment rates (a snowball effect which has not yet been factored into their share price).”</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1962 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"730\" height=\"360\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1963 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"567\" height=\"342\" />\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In fact, moving beyond the specifics of the recent corporate tax rate cut, we find that more generally our Consistent Compounder stocks participate more than adequately in the post-Election rallies. As shown in the chart above, in the two year period following General Elections:\r\n(a) the lowest return HDFC Bank has given is 20% CAGR;\r\n(b) the lowest return Asian Paints has given is -17% CAGR [post the 1996 elections];\r\n(c) HDFC Bank has never given negative returns; and\r\n(d) Asian Paints has once given negative returns.</p>\r\nTo conclude, the more general points we are driving at are that:\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>Economic reforms often seem to benefit specific types of companies rather than benefiting the economy as a whole or benefiting the entire corporate community.</li>\r\n 	<li>We have seen repeatedly in India that economic reforms often come in the wake of decisive General Election results.</li>\r\n 	<li>In the wake of reforms, even as GDP growth slows, the stockmarket rallies as it anticipates higher future profits for a subset of companies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=850d1a38eb&amp;e=30e8f97910\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D850d1a38eb%26e%3D30e8f97910&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571464138840000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyOxNn7iISK0IH7BY_3nYptuHNqw\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em></p>', 'The Relationship Between Reforms & Returns in India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-relationship-between-reforms-returns-in-india', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:21:17', '2019-11-06 06:21:17', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=1960', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(1961, 1, '2019-10-18 08:44:01', '2019-10-18 08:44:01', '', 'picture 1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'picture-1', '', '', '2019-10-18 08:44:01', '2019-10-18 08:44:01', '', 1960, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1962, 1, '2019-10-18 08:44:49', '2019-10-18 08:44:49', '', 'picture2', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'picture2', '', '', '2019-10-18 08:44:49', '2019-10-18 08:44:49', '', 1960, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/picture2.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(1837, 1, '2019-10-01 04:50:34', '2019-10-01 04:50:34', 'The superficial approach of choosing winners from the recently announced tax rate cuts, is to look for companies paying the highest rate of tax and then expect a 10-15% increase in their profits. Instead, the real winners will be determined by the ability of a company to either: (a)reinvest the incremental cash flows back into the business and generate a high return on capital on this incremental capital deployed; and/or (b) increase operating expenditure via advert spends, price cuts, channel incentives, IT initiatives, HR spends, or R&amp;D spends. Hence, firms with high ROCE and high rate of reinvestment of cash flows will be able to create a ‘snowball’ effect on their future earnings, which is yet to be factored into their share prices. Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders are the perfect fit examples of such firms. “…there has been a lot of fuzzy and often partisan commentary about who really pays corporate taxes -\r\nbusinesses or their customers…. What really happens? When the corporate rate is cut, do Berkshire, The Washington Post, Cap Cities, etc., themselves soak up the benefits, or do these companies pass the benefits along to their customers in the form of lower prices? This is an important question for investors…” – Warren Buffett in Berkshire Hathaway’s 1986 Letter to shareholders Performance update – as on 30th September 2019 .We have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1838 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"667\" height=\"359\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Tax rate cuts – the incorrect conclusion: higher the existing tax rates, higher the future benefits</strong>\r\nOn 20th September 2019, India’s Finance Minister announced a reduction in corporate tax rates from 30% to 22%. The knee jerk reaction to such an announcement is to find companies which incur the highest rate of tax currently and compute the increase in their profits following this announcement. Then, assuming the fair value P/E multiple of such companies remains unchanged, any increase in profits should warrant a commensurate increase in the share price of the company. As summarized in the exhibit below, using this approach, two companies with the same tax rate, but different profit margins and ROCEs, are expected to see the same appreciation in their fair values and hence share prices.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1839 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"628\" height=\"366\" />\r\n\r\nNote that the table shown above <strong>concludes that profits of the ‘Great company’ will be twice as much as the </strong><strong>profits of the ‘Average company’, both before as well as after the cut in corporate tax rates.</strong> We shall return to this point further on in this note.\r\n\r\nThis part of the benefit from 20th September’s announcement by the Finance Minister has already been factored into share prices over the past 10 days. However, this conclusion is superficial and incompletebecause it does not consider, the ability of a company to retain (or not retain), and then reinvest, any benefitsfrom the incremental profits retained following a cut in corporate tax payout.\r\n\r\nOn this subject, Warren Buffett stated in Berkshire Hathaway’s 1986 Letter to Shareholders (Click here) –“…there has been a lot of fuzzy and often partisan commentary about who really pays corporate taxes -businesses or their customers…. What really happens? When the corporate rate is cut, do Berkshire, The Washington Post, Cap Cities, etc., themselves soak up the benefits, or do these companies pass the benefitsalong to their customers in the form of lower prices? This is an important question for investors and managers, as well as for policymakers….\r\n\r\nOur conclusion is that… in the price-competitive industry, whose companies typically operate with very weak business franchises. In such industries, the free market \"regulates\" after-tax profits in a delayed and irregular, but generally effective, manner. The marketplace, in effect, performs much the same function in dealing with the price-competitive industry as the Public Utilities Commission does in dealing with electric utilities. In these industries, therefore, tax changes eventually affect prices more than profits.\r\n\r\nIn the case of unregulated businesses blessed with strong franchises, the corporation and its shareholders are then the major beneficiaries of tax cuts. These companies benefit from a tax cut much as the electric company would if it lacked a regulator to force down prices. Many of our businesses, both those we own in whole and in part, possess such franchises. Consequently, reductions in their taxes largely end up in our pockets rather than the pockets of our customers. While this may be impolitic to state, it is impossible to deny.”\r\n\r\n<strong>Tax rate cuts – the real impact: High ROCE + High Reinvestment rate will determine the winner</strong>\r\nExtending the comparative analysis between a ‘Great company’ and an ‘Average company’ from exhibit 3\r\nabove, let us assume the following:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>A Great company can deliver 50% ROCE (14% PAT margin and 3.6x capital employed turnover) with\r\n100% capital reinvestment rate</li>\r\n 	<li>An Average company can deliver 10% ROCE (7% PAT margin and 1.4x capital employed turnover) with\r\n100% capital reinvestment rate</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs highlighted in exhibit 4 below, the Great company will plough back the incremental profits generated from reduced tax rates, thereby creating a strong snowball effect as time progresses. Due to this ‘snowball effect’,\r\nthe ratio of incremental profits for the Great company and those for the Average company, will not remain\r\nconstant at 2x (which was apparent in the superficial analysis of Exhibit 3 above). Instead, it will widen\r\nexponentially over time into the long-term future. This ‘snowball effect’ accelerates the earnings growth rate\r\nof the Great company into the long term.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1840 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"642\" height=\"438\" />\r\n\r\nIt is also worth noting here that a firm like HUL, which has ~100% ROCE, is unlikely to create this ‘snowball effect’ (versus a firm like Asian Paints with 40% ROCE or Pidilite with 37% ROCE) because HUL has less than 20% rate of reinvestment of cash-flows (vs 51% for Asian Paints and 68% for Pidilite) i.e. HUL has not demonstrated its ability to redeploy a large part of its operating cash flows back onto the balance sheet and then sustain its high ROCE.\r\n\r\nIn addition to the ‘snowball effect’ of reinvesting incremental profits back onto the balance sheet, some great\r\ncompanies might also decide to utilise the incremental profits via increase in costs like advertisement spends,\r\nR&amp;D spends, IT initiatives, HR initiatives, price cuts, etc. Such actions will also benefit a ‘Great company’ more than an ‘Average company’ because of two reasons: (a) as highlighted in Exhibit 3 above, the quantum of incremental profits of a Great company are higher than those of an Average company, giving it the extra firepower to spend in these areas; (b) some of the moats of a Great company might have been built around R&amp;D / IT / HR / brand-recall, etc – which might not be true for the Average company. At this point, it might be tempting to believe that a firm like HUL will be able to benefit from its higher profit margin, brand and distribution strength etc compared to its competitors. However, for such firms, these gains might be temporary because the next price war from a competitor like Patanjali / Nirma / Colgate / P&amp;G will force HUL to cut its product price and hence sacrifice the incremental profits earned from the cut in corporate tax rates.\r\n\r\nTo conclude, the biggest beneficiaries of the cut in corporate tax rates are companies with a combination of high ROCE + high reinvestment rate + high tax rate. Firms which will NOT benefit much from the tax rate cut are those which either do not have avenues for capital reinvestment, or which have low pricing power (and hence will have to sacrifice the gains from the tax cut), or which have low ROCE, or those that are not cash generative. In short, the vast majority of the Indian stockmarket will not benefit from the recent cut in corporate tax rates! Those gains shall, rightfully, go to their consumers as Warren Buffett points in the quote cited earlier on in this note.\r\n\r\n<strong>Consistent Compounders benefit disproportionately from the cut in corporate tax rates</strong>\r\nAs highlighted in exhibit 5 below, the 13 stocks in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) will not only benefit from high existing tax rates (an effect which has been factored into their share price in September already), but also from accelerated earnings growth given their high ROCEs and capital reinvestment rates (a snowball effect which has not yet been factored into their share price).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1841 size-full\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/image4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"628\" height=\"372\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Changes made to the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio</strong>\r\nIn September, we added one stock to the portfolios of our clients (no stock was exited though) – Abbott India Ltd. Abbott India has delivered an excellent historical financial performance track record with industry-beating revenues, EBITDA and net earnings CAGR of 18%, 23% and 22% respectively over the last 10 years. Abbott India has consistently generated high ROCEs, averaging 39% (pre-tax) and ROICs (averaging 94% pre-tax) over the last 10 years. The firm benefits from a strong focus on India by its MNC parent firm Abbott Laboratories, which is reflected in terms of new product introductions, rigorous oversight on product/manufacturing quality and support in the implementation of global best practices across all key functions. All top ten revenue contributing brands of Abbott India rank either as #1 or #2 in their respective application areas – for instance Thyronorm (treating Thyroid), Duphaston (infertility/miscarriages), Vertin (Vertigo), etc.\r\n\r\nAbbott India has an opportunity to grow faster than Indian pharma industry on the back of: (i) presence in under-penetrated therapy areas like thyroid, gynaecology, vaccines, etc; (ii) market share gains in core products as well as introduction of new products for treating adjacencies within the broader therapy areas. Abbott India is exceptionally strong in product efficacy, sales and marketing. The company’s earnings have historically demonstrated strong resilience to price control measures – for instance, reduction in Thyronorm prices in FY14 led to an increase its market shares/volumes and the ensuing operating leverage helped mitigate the adverse impact on margins. There exists an opportunity for margin expansion on the back of rising share of own brand contribution (currently Abbott India generates ~30-35% revenues from distribution of Novo-Nordisk Insulins where the distribution margin is low). Miles White, the Chairman and CEO of Abbott Laboratories has had a strong track record of capital allocation which – as explained in this note - is particularly important for a high cash generative firm like Abbott India which currently holds Rs 17 billion of surplus cash on its balance sheet.\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated </strong><strong>by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an </strong><strong>Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Consistent Compounders benefit disproportionately from tax rate cuts', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:55:51', '2020-01-20 10:55:51', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=1837', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(1838, 1, '2019-10-01 04:23:23', '2019-10-01 04:23:23', '', 'image 1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'image-1-4', '', '', '2019-10-01 04:23:23', '2019-10-01 04:23:23', '', 1837, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/image-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2042, 1, '2019-10-27 17:24:19', '2019-10-27 17:24:19', 'Uber and Airbnb were both founded around a decade ago and most of us think of them as being synonymous of the gig economy where millions of vendors sell their wares via asset-light platforms who act as a shopfront. However, “As Airbnb prepares to go public next year, its boss, Brian Chesky, has been making the case for his company, both to the press and behind closed doors. He is keen to get across that, sharing-economy heritage notwithstanding, Airbnb is no Uber.”\r\nSo, what are the differences between the two platforms? <em>“But here the similarities end, starting with money. Whereas Uber has yet to turn a profit (and, sceptics say, never will), Airbnb says it is already profitable (to be precise, ebitda-positive) and has been since 2017, when it is thought to have earned $93m on revenues of $2.6bn. That is not the only distinction. </em>\r\n<em>For ride-hailing firms like Uber and Lyft, supply and demand must be matched in the same city; a driver in Manhattan is no use to a rider in Mumbai. Airbnb’s listings, by contrast, are global. Any property anywhere can potentially appeal to any user; a Mumbaiker may want to stay in New York. A telltale sign of Airbnb’s superior “network effects” is that whereas drivers for Uber often drive for Lyft, and vice versa, doing their utmost to play the platforms off against each other, most of Airbnb’s listings do not appear on any other platform.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Airbnb has been cleverer than Uber in the way it has dealt with regulators around the world. <em>“Airbnb decided earlier than Uber to work with regulators rather than fighting them. It has struck deals in more than 500 big cities around the world. It says it has collected more than $1bn in hotel and tourism taxes in America alone and is “on track to become the world’s largest single collector of these taxes”.</em>', 'Airbnb and Uber are chalk and cheese', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'airbnb-and-uber-are-chalk-and-cheese', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:15:04', '2019-11-01 12:15:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2042', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1728, 1, '2019-09-27 09:59:12', '2019-09-27 09:59:12', 'a:7:{s:8:\"location\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"param\";s:9:\"post_type\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:5:\"video\";}}}s:8:\"position\";s:6:\"normal\";s:5:\"style\";s:7:\"default\";s:15:\"label_placement\";s:3:\"top\";s:21:\"instruction_placement\";s:5:\"label\";s:14:\"hide_on_screen\";a:5:{i:0;s:11:\"the_content\";i:1;s:8:\"comments\";i:2;s:14:\"featured_image\";i:3;s:10:\"categories\";i:4;s:4:\"tags\";}s:11:\"description\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Video', 'video', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'group_5d8ddcf71a985', '', '', '2019-09-30 09:08:05', '2019-09-30 09:08:05', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field-group&#038;p=1728', 0, 'acf-field-group', '', 0),
(1729, 1, '2019-09-27 09:59:12', '2019-09-27 09:59:12', 'a:15:{s:4:\"type\";s:5:\"image\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"return_format\";s:5:\"array\";s:12:\"preview_size\";s:6:\"medium\";s:7:\"library\";s:3:\"all\";s:9:\"min_width\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"min_height\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"min_size\";s:0:\"\";s:9:\"max_width\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"max_height\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"max_size\";s:0:\"\";s:10:\"mime_types\";s:0:\"\";}', 'Video Thumbnail', 'video_thumbnail', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d8ddd1891f61', '', '', '2019-09-30 05:56:27', '2019-09-30 05:56:27', '', 1728, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&#038;p=1729', 1, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(1730, 1, '2019-09-27 09:59:12', '2019-09-27 09:59:12', 'a:7:{s:4:\"type\";s:3:\"url\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:122:\"Copy the URL from Youtube embedded iframe code and paste it in below field\r\ne.g. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Q22D7avwa_Y\";s:8:\"required\";i:1;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"placeholder\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"conditional_logic\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"field\";s:19:\"field_5d9198647679c\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"!=\";s:5:\"value\";s:7:\"Website\";}}}}', 'Youtube URL', 'youtube_url', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d8ddd3a91f62', '', '', '2019-09-30 09:07:21', '2019-09-30 09:07:21', '', 1728, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&#038;p=1730', 2, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(1731, 1, '2019-09-27 09:59:12', '2019-09-27 09:59:12', 'a:7:{s:4:\"type\";s:3:\"url\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:1;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:11:\"placeholder\";s:0:\"\";s:17:\"conditional_logic\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"field\";s:19:\"field_5d9198647679c\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:7:\"Website\";}}}}', 'Website Link', 'website_link', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d8ddd5691f63', '', '', '2019-09-30 09:03:41', '2019-09-30 09:03:41', '', 1728, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&#038;p=1731', 4, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(1900, 1, '2019-10-07 04:49:11', '2019-10-07 04:49:11', 'As tax evading businesses and investors in real estate stare into the abyss, we look at the forceful resurgence of a north Indian business community which was uprooted by Partition. ', 'Group of Diverse Multiethnic People Teamwork Concept', 'Group of Diverse Multiethnic People Teamwork Concept', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'group-of-diverse-multiethnic-people-teamwork-concept', '', '', '2019-10-30 10:54:01', '2019-10-30 10:54:01', '', 1724, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Excelling-Amidst-Disruption-India-Khatri-Community.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1733, 1, '2019-09-27 10:05:44', '2019-09-27 10:05:44', '<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-md-4\">\r\n  [text* your-name class:form-control placeholder\"Your name\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-md-4\">\r\n  [email* your-email class:form-control placeholder\"Your email (Required)\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-md-4\">\r\n  [text tel-297 class:form-control placeholder\"Your phone number\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n  [textarea your-message class:form-control placeholder\"Enter your message\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n[submit \"Send\" class:btn-primary]\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\n1\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\nrajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\nFrom: [your-name] <[your-email]>\r\nSubject: [your-subject]\r\n\r\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: [your-email]\n\n\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (http://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-09-27 10:05:44', '2019-09-27 10:05:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&p=1733', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
(1735, 1, '2019-09-30 05:58:55', '2019-09-30 05:58:55', 'a:10:{s:4:\"type\";s:7:\"wysiwyg\";s:12:\"instructions\";s:0:\"\";s:8:\"required\";i:0;s:7:\"wrapper\";a:3:{s:5:\"width\";s:0:\"\";s:5:\"class\";s:0:\"\";s:2:\"id\";s:0:\"\";}s:13:\"default_value\";s:0:\"\";s:4:\"tabs\";s:3:\"all\";s:7:\"toolbar\";s:4:\"full\";s:12:\"media_upload\";i:1;s:5:\"delay\";i:0;s:17:\"conditional_logic\";a:1:{i:0;a:1:{i:0;a:3:{s:5:\"field\";s:19:\"field_5d9198647679c\";s:8:\"operator\";s:2:\"==\";s:5:\"value\";s:7:\"Youtube\";}}}}', 'Video Transcript', 'video_transcript', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'field_5d91993f84650', '', '', '2019-09-30 05:59:52', '2019-09-30 05:59:52', '', 1728, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=acf-field&#038;p=1735', 3, 'acf-field', '', 0),
(1737, 1, '2019-09-29 07:37:51', '2019-09-29 07:37:51', 'It is fashionable to believe these days that Trump, Putin, Modi, Xi, Erdogan, etc have ushered in a new era of right-wing politics wherein all of us being relentlessly subject to propaganda and our liberties are being curtailed. This piece in The Guardian questions this notion and says “<em>It’s not about foreign trolls, filter bubbles or fake news. Technology encourages us to believe we can all have first-hand access to the ‘real’ facts…the single biggest change in our public sphere is that we now have an unimaginable excess of news and content, where once we had scarcity. Suddenly, the analogue channels and professions we depended on for our knowledge of the world have come to seem partial, slow and dispensable.”</em>\r\nBasically, we are now fed so much information that we believe – that in our infinite wisdom – we have the definitive perspective and the last word on every damn thing under the sun. In the process, we have lost sense of perspective: <em>“How exactly do we distinguish this critical mentality from that of the conspiracy theorist, who is convinced that they alone have seen through the official version of events? Or to turn the question around, how might it be possible to recognise the most flagrant cases of bias in the behaviour of reporters and experts, but nevertheless to accept that what they say is often a reasonable depiction of the world?”</em>\r\nOur loss of perspective on what is real and what isn’t, what is relevant and what isn’t is especially devastating for us if <em>“contrary to initial hype surrounding big data, the explosion of information available to us is making it harder, not easier, to achieve consensus on truth. As the quantity of information increases, the need to pick out bite-size pieces of content rises accordingly. In this radically sceptical age, questions of where to look, what to focus on and who to trust are ones that we increasingly seek to answer for ourselves, without the help of intermediaries. This is a liberation of sorts, but it is also at the heart of our deteriorating confidence in public institutions.”</em>\r\nThis loss of faith in public institutions can have powerful implications. Rather than Trump or Modi attacking democracy, our own – self-inflicted – loss of faith in public institutions can undermine democracy. In fact, at Marcellus we would argue this has already happened with many members of Indian urban elite having switched off from the political discourse due to the notion that nothing can be done about Indian politics and Indian politicians. The Guardian article warns us about the dangers of burying our heads in the sand: <em>“Over-reliant on analogies to 20th century totalitarianism, it paints the present moment as a moral conflict between truth and lies, with an unthinking public passively consuming the results. But our relationship to information and news is now entirely different: it has become an active and critical one, that is deeply suspicious of the official line. Nowadays, everyone is engaged in spotting and rebutting propaganda of one kind or another, curating our news feeds, attacking the framing of the other side and consciously resisting manipulation. In some ways, we have become too concerned with truth, to the point where we can no longer agree on it…political problems arise once we turn against all representations and framings of reality, on the basis that these are compromised and biased – as if some purer, unmediated access to the truth might be possible instead. This is a seductive, but misleading ideal.”</em>', 'Why can’t we agree on what’s true anymore?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-cant-we-agree-on-whats-true-anymore', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:23:11', '2019-11-04 07:23:11', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1737', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1738, 1, '2019-09-30 07:46:30', '2019-09-30 07:46:30', 'It is fashionable to believe these days that Trump, Putin, Modi, Xi, Erdogan, etc have ushered in a new era of right-wing politics wherein all of us being relentlessly subject to propaganda and our liberties are being curtailed. This piece in The Guardian questions this notion and says “<em>It’s not about foreign trolls, filter bubbles or fake news. Technology encourages us to believe we can all have first-hand access to the ‘real’ facts…the single biggest change in our public sphere is that we now have an unimaginable excess of news and content, where once we had scarcity. Suddenly, the analogue channels and professions we depended on for our knowledge of the world have come to seem partial, slow and dispensable.”</em>\r\nBasically, we are now fed so much information that we believe – that in our infinite wisdom – we have the definitive perspective and the last word on every damn thing under the sun. In the process, we have lost sense of perspective: <em>“How exactly do we distinguish this critical mentality from that of the conspiracy theorist, who is convinced that they alone have seen through the official version of events? Or to turn the question around, how might it be possible to recognise the most flagrant cases of bias in the behaviour of reporters and experts, but nevertheless to accept that what they say is often a reasonable depiction of the world?”</em>\r\nOur loss of perspective on what is real and what isn’t, what is relevant and what isn’t is especially devastating for us if <em>“contrary to initial hype surrounding big data, the explosion of information available to us is making it harder, not easier, to achieve consensus on truth. As the quantity of information increases, the need to pick out bite-size pieces of content rises accordingly. In this radically sceptical age, questions of where to look, what to focus on and who to trust are ones that we increasingly seek to answer for ourselves, without the help of intermediaries. This is a liberation of sorts, but it is also at the heart of our deteriorating confidence in public institutions.”</em>\r\nThis loss of faith in public institutions can have powerful implications. Rather than Trump or Modi attacking democracy, our own – self-inflicted – loss of faith in public institutions can undermine democracy. In fact, at Marcellus we would argue this has already happened with many members of Indian urban elite having switched off from the political discourse due to the notion that nothing can be done about Indian politics and Indian politicians. The Guardian article warns us about the dangers of burying our heads in the sand: <em>“Over-reliant on analogies to 20th century totalitarianism, it paints the present moment as a moral conflict between truth and lies, with an unthinking public passively consuming the results. But our relationship to information and news is now entirely different: it has become an active and critical one, that is deeply suspicious of the official line. Nowadays, everyone is engaged in spotting and rebutting propaganda of one kind or another, curating our news feeds, attacking the framing of the other side and consciously resisting manipulation. In some ways, we have become too concerned with truth, to the point where we can no longer agree on it…political problems arise once we turn against all representations and framings of reality, on the basis that these are compromised and biased – as if some purer, unmediated access to the truth might be possible instead. This is a seductive, but misleading ideal.”</em>', 'Why can’t we agree on what’s true anymore?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1737-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:46:30', '2019-09-30 07:46:30', '', 1737, 'http://marcellus.in/1737-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1739, 1, '2019-09-29 07:46:45', '2019-09-29 07:46:45', 'If building a business with strong competitive advantages is tough, sustaining the competitive advantage is many degrees tougher. In retailing, the internet makes it relatively easy to replicate at scale, an existing business model. And this makes it tough for incumbents to protect their market share till the time they have built enough scale for network effects to start positively strengthening their economic moats. But how does a single-product, online-only business thrive? An online mattress retailing company thinks the answer is in selling ‘sleep’ not just a mattress. Casper, a start-up wants to be the ‘Nike of Sleep’.\r\n<em>“A mattress primer: For a long time, the American market has been dominated by Tempur Sealy and Serta Simmons, both of which date back to the 19th century. But the current state of the industry began to take shape in 2014, when a group of men at a co-working space noticed the direct-to-consumer trend and figured that a good industry to disrupt might be one whose incumbents had been around since Thomas Edison was messing with electricity. They started Casper, and before long it was synonymous with the mattress-in-a-box concept.</em>\r\n<em>But in the years since, Casper has had to shift positions. Dozens of mattress-in-a-box competitors crowded the market. Realizing the limitations of an entirely virtual business model, Casper began opening storefronts and selling products like pillows and sheets. All the while, the wellness industry rose up, with companies attaching their wares to a sense of higher, healthful purpose. While businesses devoted to optimizing most of the core bodily functions abound — start-ups that promise more healthful eating, more holistic hydration, etc. — no company has yet established itself as the clear leader of the sleep space.</em>\r\n<em>So ahead of a possible initial public offering, Casper is trying to recast itself as “the Nike of sleep,” in the company’s phrase. It has assembled a “sleep advisory board” that includes Dr. Lipman, who contributes articles and recipes to Goop.com, in addition to impressively credentialed academics and supposed sleep experts from Brown, the University of Arizona and elsewhere.</em>\r\n<em>“If I’m wearing a pair of Nike shoes, a little part of me feels connected to the Olympic athletes that wear those shoes, and maybe I feel like I’m a little bit faster of a runner. That’s the mentality shift.</em>\r\n<em>There’s no doubt that there is money to be made in sleep: Consider the $149,900 horsetail hair mattress from the Swedish company Hästens, or the parents who spend thousands of dollars on sleep consultants for their newborns. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreed sleep deprivation a public health problem, saying that about a third of American adults do not get enough rest — contributing to the sense that quality shut-eye is becoming a luxury.</em>\r\n<em>Today Casper has a $1.1 billion valuation and a slew of imitators, including Purple, Avocado and Leesa. The wrinkle is that Casper has never posted a profit. And its biggest rivals say they are not, well, losing sleep. “Our stock’s up 80 percent, and we’re a $4 billion company,” Scott Thompson, Tempur Sealy’s chief executive, told me. “We’re having a great time.”</em>\r\n<em>But while Mr. Thompson may scoff at the start-ups’ business model, his company has been forced to play catch-up. Tempur Sealy now offers Cocoon, a bed-in-a-box that, just like Casper, comes with a 100-night trial period. Direct-to-consumer sales now account for about 10 percent of the company’s sales. (Last year, Serta Simmons acquired the Casper rival Tuft &amp; Needle.)</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Parikh said Casper’s customer base was “everyone — everyone is in the market for sleep, because everyone can sleep better.” It may be true, but for now, in a business sense, it’s very much a dream.”</em>', 'Casper Dreams of Being Bigger Than Mattresses', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'casper-dreams-of-being-bigger-than-mattresses', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:22:10', '2019-11-04 07:22:10', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1739', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1740, 1, '2019-09-30 07:47:38', '2019-09-30 07:47:38', 'If building a business with strong competitive advantages is tough, sustaining the competitive advantage is many degrees tougher. In retailing, the internet makes it relatively easy to replicate at scale, an existing business model. And this makes it tough for incumbents to protect their market share till the time they have built enough scale for network effects to start positively strengthening their economic moats. But how does a single-product, online-only business thrive? An online mattress retailing company thinks the answer is in selling ‘sleep’ not just a mattress. Casper, a start-up wants to be the ‘Nike of Sleep’.\r\n<em>“A mattress primer: For a long time, the American market has been dominated by Tempur Sealy and Serta Simmons, both of which date back to the 19th century. But the current state of the industry began to take shape in 2014, when a group of men at a co-working space noticed the direct-to-consumer trend and figured that a good industry to disrupt might be one whose incumbents had been around since Thomas Edison was messing with electricity. They started Casper, and before long it was synonymous with the mattress-in-a-box concept.</em>\r\n<em>But in the years since, Casper has had to shift positions. Dozens of mattress-in-a-box competitors crowded the market. Realizing the limitations of an entirely virtual business model, Casper began opening storefronts and selling products like pillows and sheets. All the while, the wellness industry rose up, with companies attaching their wares to a sense of higher, healthful purpose. While businesses devoted to optimizing most of the core bodily functions abound — start-ups that promise more healthful eating, more holistic hydration, etc. — no company has yet established itself as the clear leader of the sleep space.</em>\r\n<em>So ahead of a possible initial public offering, Casper is trying to recast itself as “the Nike of sleep,” in the company’s phrase. It has assembled a “sleep advisory board” that includes Dr. Lipman, who contributes articles and recipes to Goop.com, in addition to impressively credentialed academics and supposed sleep experts from Brown, the University of Arizona and elsewhere.</em>\r\n<em>“If I’m wearing a pair of Nike shoes, a little part of me feels connected to the Olympic athletes that wear those shoes, and maybe I feel like I’m a little bit faster of a runner. That’s the mentality shift.</em>\r\n<em>There’s no doubt that there is money to be made in sleep: Consider the $149,900 horsetail hair mattress from the Swedish company Hästens, or the parents who spend thousands of dollars on sleep consultants for their newborns. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreed sleep deprivation a public health problem, saying that about a third of American adults do not get enough rest — contributing to the sense that quality shut-eye is becoming a luxury.</em>\r\n<em>Today Casper has a $1.1 billion valuation and a slew of imitators, including Purple, Avocado and Leesa. The wrinkle is that Casper has never posted a profit. And its biggest rivals say they are not, well, losing sleep. “Our stock’s up 80 percent, and we’re a $4 billion company,” Scott Thompson, Tempur Sealy’s chief executive, told me. “We’re having a great time.”</em>\r\n<em>But while Mr. Thompson may scoff at the start-ups’ business model, his company has been forced to play catch-up. Tempur Sealy now offers Cocoon, a bed-in-a-box that, just like Casper, comes with a 100-night trial period. Direct-to-consumer sales now account for about 10 percent of the company’s sales. (Last year, Serta Simmons acquired the Casper rival Tuft &amp; Needle.)</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Parikh said Casper’s customer base was “everyone — everyone is in the market for sleep, because everyone can sleep better.” It may be true, but for now, in a business sense, it’s very much a dream.”</em>', 'Casper Dreams of Being Bigger Than Mattresses', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1739-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:47:38', '2019-09-30 07:47:38', '', 1739, 'http://marcellus.in/1739-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1741, 1, '2019-09-29 07:47:46', '2019-09-29 07:47:46', '<hr />\r\n\r\n“When my information changes, I change my mind”, is an oft quoted statement, usually attributed to economist John Keynes. But Keynes clearly is an outlier. Confirmation bias makes people ignore data or information that counters their beliefs, and no matter how hard you try, your arguments, based on facts, will usually have no effect. This piece suggests ways to avoid falling into most common traps that make you close your mind to new information and keep reinforcing your beliefs, no matter how flawed those might be.\r\nThe author says, “Drowning the other person with facts, I assumed, was the best way to prove that global warming is real, the war on drugs has failed, or the current business strategy adopted by your risk-averse boss with zero imagination is not working. Since then, I’ve discovered a significant problem with this approach. It doesn’t work.”\r\nAs a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on the opposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.\r\nThe author suggests 4 ways to help you change your, or the other person’s mind.\r\n<strong><u>Give the mind an out</u></strong> – We’re reluctant to acknowledge mistakes. The key is to trick the mind by giving it an excuse. Convince your own mind (or your friend) that your prior decision or prior belief was the right one given what you knew, but now that the underlying facts have changed, so should the mind.\r\n<strong><u>Your beliefs are not you</u></strong> – When your beliefs are entwined with your identity, changing your mind means changing your identity. A possible solution, and one that I’ve adopted in my own life, is to put a healthy separation between you and the products of you. At conferences, instead of saying, “In this paper, I argue . . .,” I began to say “This paper argues . . .”\r\n<strong><u>Build up your empathy muscle</u></strong> – If employment is the primary concern of the Detroit auto worker, showing him images of endangered penguins (as adorable as they may be) or Antarctica’s melting glaciers will get you nowhere. Instead, show him how renewable energy will provide job security to his grandchildren. Now, you’ve got his attention.\r\n<strong><u>Get out of your echo chamber</u></strong> – This means our opinions aren’t being stress tested nearly as frequently as they should. Make a point to befriend people who disagree with you. Expose yourself to environments where your opinions can be challenged, as uncomfortable and awkward as that might be.', 'Facts Don’t Change People’s Minds. Here’s What Does', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'facts-dont-change-peoples-minds-heres-what-does', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1741', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1742, 1, '2019-09-30 07:48:40', '2019-09-30 07:48:40', '<hr />\r\n\r\n“When my information changes, I change my mind”, is an oft quoted statement, usually attributed to economist John Keynes. But Keynes clearly is an outlier. Confirmation bias makes people ignore data or information that counters their beliefs, and no matter how hard you try, your arguments, based on facts, will usually have no effect. This piece suggests ways to avoid falling into most common traps that make you close your mind to new information and keep reinforcing your beliefs, no matter how flawed those might be.\r\nThe author says, “Drowning the other person with facts, I assumed, was the best way to prove that global warming is real, the war on drugs has failed, or the current business strategy adopted by your risk-averse boss with zero imagination is not working. Since then, I’ve discovered a significant problem with this approach. It doesn’t work.”\r\nAs a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on the opposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.\r\nThe author suggests 4 ways to help you change your, or the other person’s mind.\r\n<strong><u>Give the mind an out</u></strong> – We’re reluctant to acknowledge mistakes. The key is to trick the mind by giving it an excuse. Convince your own mind (or your friend) that your prior decision or prior belief was the right one given what you knew, but now that the underlying facts have changed, so should the mind.\r\n<strong><u>Your beliefs are not you</u></strong> – When your beliefs are entwined with your identity, changing your mind means changing your identity. A possible solution, and one that I’ve adopted in my own life, is to put a healthy separation between you and the products of you. At conferences, instead of saying, “In this paper, I argue . . .,” I began to say “This paper argues . . .”\r\n<strong><u>Build up your empathy muscle</u></strong> – If employment is the primary concern of the Detroit auto worker, showing him images of endangered penguins (as adorable as they may be) or Antarctica’s melting glaciers will get you nowhere. Instead, show him how renewable energy will provide job security to his grandchildren. Now, you’ve got his attention.\r\n<strong><u>Get out of your echo chamber</u></strong> – This means our opinions aren’t being stress tested nearly as frequently as they should. Make a point to befriend people who disagree with you. Expose yourself to environments where your opinions can be challenged, as uncomfortable and awkward as that might be.', 'Facts Don’t Change People’s Minds. Here’s What Does', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1741-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:48:40', '2019-09-30 07:48:40', '', 1741, 'http://marcellus.in/1741-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1743, 1, '2019-09-29 07:48:46', '2019-09-29 07:48:46', '<hr />\r\n\r\nMore than a decade after the Lehman Brothers bust unleashed the greatest tide of liquidity seen in the history of mankind, across the world we are now seeing weird &amp; wonderful transactions in the Tech sector. From WeWork’s stalled IPO to Uber’s tanking share price to, closer home, the remarkable valuation of Ola Electric. Moneycontrol has published a neat little article on the latter issue.\r\nOla, the parent company, was <em>“founded in 2010, Ola has raised $3.3 billion to date, and is valued at $5.7 billion. Key investors in the startup include SoftBank, Tiger Global, Tencent, Matrix Partners and DST Global.”</em>\r\nNow, let’s look at the subsidiary, Ola Electric, the main subject of the article. <em>“On May 26, 2017, Ola Electric was set up as a 100 percent subsidiary of ANI Technologies, which operates Ola, India’s largest cab aggregator. A few dozen people were employed by Ola Electric, but they continued to be on the payroll of Ola (aka ANI Technologies).</em>\r\n<em>Between December 2018 and January 2019, Bhavish Aggarwal, the founder and CEO of Ola, purchased 92.5 percent of the stake in Ola Electric for Rs 92,500. The balance stake was held by Ola for using its brand name. Soon after, a few dozen employees were transferred as full-time Ola Electric employees, documents seen by Moneycontrol show….</em>\r\n<em>In March, Ola Electric raised Rs 300 crore ($42.2 million) from Matrix Partners, Ratan Tata and Tiger Global at an undisclosed valuation. The fundraising was closed in February itself, a month after Aggarwal completed the buyout of Ola Electric. And then, in July, Ola Electric announced that it had raised $250 million from SoftBank at a valuation of $1 billion. Udaan says it is the fastest unicorn in India, taking 25 months to reach this milestone.”</em>\r\nThe Moneycontrol article poses some simple questions: <em>“Between January, when Aggarwal valued Ola Electric at Rs 1 lakh, and July, when it was valued at $1 billion, what changed? Did Ola Electric do something so electrifying that its valuation was supercharged from nothing to a billion dollars in less than six months?”</em>\r\nAnd here is the most ironic aspect of the Ola Electric valuation: <em>“Today, Aggarwal owns a 40 percent stake in Ola Electric worth $400 million. He owns 6.7 percent of Ola, which puts the value of his holding in the company at $382 million. So, for having built Ola from scratch for nine years, Aggarwal’s stake in the company is worth less than what he managed to obtain in just a few months through Ola Electric.”</em>', 'The curious case of Bhavish Aggarwal and Ola Electric', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-curious-case-of-bhavish-aggarwal-and-ola-electric', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1743', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1744, 1, '2019-09-30 07:50:19', '2019-09-30 07:50:19', '<hr />\r\n\r\nMore than a decade after the Lehman Brothers bust unleashed the greatest tide of liquidity seen in the history of mankind, across the world we are now seeing weird &amp; wonderful transactions in the Tech sector. From WeWork’s stalled IPO to Uber’s tanking share price to, closer home, the remarkable valuation of Ola Electric. Moneycontrol has published a neat little article on the latter issue.\r\nOla, the parent company, was <em>“founded in 2010, Ola has raised $3.3 billion to date, and is valued at $5.7 billion. Key investors in the startup include SoftBank, Tiger Global, Tencent, Matrix Partners and DST Global.”</em>\r\nNow, let’s look at the subsidiary, Ola Electric, the main subject of the article. <em>“On May 26, 2017, Ola Electric was set up as a 100 percent subsidiary of ANI Technologies, which operates Ola, India’s largest cab aggregator. A few dozen people were employed by Ola Electric, but they continued to be on the payroll of Ola (aka ANI Technologies).</em>\r\n<em>Between December 2018 and January 2019, Bhavish Aggarwal, the founder and CEO of Ola, purchased 92.5 percent of the stake in Ola Electric for Rs 92,500. The balance stake was held by Ola for using its brand name. Soon after, a few dozen employees were transferred as full-time Ola Electric employees, documents seen by Moneycontrol show….</em>\r\n<em>In March, Ola Electric raised Rs 300 crore ($42.2 million) from Matrix Partners, Ratan Tata and Tiger Global at an undisclosed valuation. The fundraising was closed in February itself, a month after Aggarwal completed the buyout of Ola Electric. And then, in July, Ola Electric announced that it had raised $250 million from SoftBank at a valuation of $1 billion. Udaan says it is the fastest unicorn in India, taking 25 months to reach this milestone.”</em>\r\nThe Moneycontrol article poses some simple questions: <em>“Between January, when Aggarwal valued Ola Electric at Rs 1 lakh, and July, when it was valued at $1 billion, what changed? Did Ola Electric do something so electrifying that its valuation was supercharged from nothing to a billion dollars in less than six months?”</em>\r\nAnd here is the most ironic aspect of the Ola Electric valuation: <em>“Today, Aggarwal owns a 40 percent stake in Ola Electric worth $400 million. He owns 6.7 percent of Ola, which puts the value of his holding in the company at $382 million. So, for having built Ola from scratch for nine years, Aggarwal’s stake in the company is worth less than what he managed to obtain in just a few months through Ola Electric.”</em>', 'The curious case of Bhavish Aggarwal and Ola Electric', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1743-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:50:19', '2019-09-30 07:50:19', '', 1743, 'http://marcellus.in/1743-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1745, 1, '2019-09-29 07:50:27', '2019-09-29 07:50:27', '<hr />\r\n\r\nA whistle blower has released a letter that has set off the events that may well end with President Trump’s impeachment. The contents of the letter are so remarkable that Trump\'s decision to make public the recording of the call to the Ukranian president (which is at the centre of the controversy) in an attempt to nullify the letter has now backfired and compelled the speaker to initiate impeachment proceedings. The reporter of this New Yorker article seems to suggest that the fact that the letter was so accurate without the whistleblower actually been privvy to the actual call means it was orchestrated by someone fully in the know. The coming days and weeks promise to be full of fun and games. It is never a dull day in Trump\'s Washington.\r\n<em>“In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals. The President’s personal lawyer, Mr. Rudolph Giuliani, is a central figure in this effort. Attorney General Barr appears to be involved as well....</em><i>\r\n<em>The letter was released and made public minutes before Joseph Maguire (the acting director of National Intelligence), was to testify before the House Intelligence Committee about the complaint. The process of impeachment will drag for long but the entire event must have shaken the powerful elites and will make them realise that they are not above law.</em>\r\n<em>For one thing, the whistle-blower can write. The document is a masterpiece of precise bureaucratic prose, laying out a forceful narrative, citing multiple streams of information both from within the Administration and from outside public reporting, and explaining its own logic as it goes. “If a classification marking is applied retroactively, I believe it is incumbent upon the classifying authority to explain why such a marking was applied, and to which specific information it pertains,” the whistle-blower writes on the second page of the document. This is a person who has considered all the angles.</em>\r\n<em>The other important early fact about the letter is that we already have evidence that bolsters the whistle-blower’s credibility. This week, the White House released a sort of summary of the President’s call with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, a call which is at the center of the whistle-blower’s complaint. The whistle-blower, when he or she wrote this letter, did not have access to the call summary. And yet the substance of Trump’s call with Zelensky is conveyed accurately. This is someone who knew what he or she was talking about.\"</em></i>', 'The House Releases the Declassified Whistle-Blower Complaint Against Donald Trump', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-house-releases-the-declassified-whistle-blower-complaint-against-donald-trump', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1745', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1746, 1, '2019-09-30 07:52:05', '2019-09-30 07:52:05', '<hr />\r\n\r\nA whistle blower has released a letter that has set off the events that may well end with President Trump’s impeachment. The contents of the letter are so remarkable that Trump\'s decision to make public the recording of the call to the Ukranian president (which is at the centre of the controversy) in an attempt to nullify the letter has now backfired and compelled the speaker to initiate impeachment proceedings. The reporter of this New Yorker article seems to suggest that the fact that the letter was so accurate without the whistleblower actually been privvy to the actual call means it was orchestrated by someone fully in the know. The coming days and weeks promise to be full of fun and games. It is never a dull day in Trump\'s Washington.\r\n<em>“In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals. The President’s personal lawyer, Mr. Rudolph Giuliani, is a central figure in this effort. Attorney General Barr appears to be involved as well....</em><i>\r\n<em>The letter was released and made public minutes before Joseph Maguire (the acting director of National Intelligence), was to testify before the House Intelligence Committee about the complaint. The process of impeachment will drag for long but the entire event must have shaken the powerful elites and will make them realise that they are not above law.</em>\r\n<em>For one thing, the whistle-blower can write. The document is a masterpiece of precise bureaucratic prose, laying out a forceful narrative, citing multiple streams of information both from within the Administration and from outside public reporting, and explaining its own logic as it goes. “If a classification marking is applied retroactively, I believe it is incumbent upon the classifying authority to explain why such a marking was applied, and to which specific information it pertains,” the whistle-blower writes on the second page of the document. This is a person who has considered all the angles.</em>\r\n<em>The other important early fact about the letter is that we already have evidence that bolsters the whistle-blower’s credibility. This week, the White House released a sort of summary of the President’s call with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, a call which is at the center of the whistle-blower’s complaint. The whistle-blower, when he or she wrote this letter, did not have access to the call summary. And yet the substance of Trump’s call with Zelensky is conveyed accurately. This is someone who knew what he or she was talking about.\"</em></i>', 'The House Releases the Declassified Whistle-Blower Complaint Against Donald Trump', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1745-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:52:05', '2019-09-30 07:52:05', '', 1745, 'http://marcellus.in/1745-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1747, 1, '2019-09-29 07:52:14', '2019-09-29 07:52:14', 't Marcellus we never stop harping on the importance of clean books of accounts and why companies with cooked up numbers have caused major wealth erosion of shareholders/bondholders/banks over the years. Among other things, companies must pass our forensic audit to become part of our portfolio.\r\nThis article is an excerpt from Vinod Rai’s new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=511f5fb0e1&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D511f5fb0e1%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569905085758000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHksX8mAZraL7Ad2IC07K_k6FUgoA\"><em>‘Rethinking Good Governance’</em></a> and talks about the (mis)management of a renowned Thiruvananthapuram temple. Vinod Rai became a household name in India after the 2G and Coal Scam report he published during his tenure as the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. The Supreme Court of India appointed Vinod Rai to conduct a special audit of Kerala’s Shree Padmanabhaswamy temple. The temple was in the news for the discovery of huge amount of gold in its vaults and the consequent accusation of mismanagement of accounts &amp; pilferage.\r\nMr. Rai gives various instances of mismanagement in the temple in his books which is an eye opener.\r\n<em>“The temple did not have a system of ascertaining the weight and purity of gold and silver articles before handing them over to jewellers for melting and purification for ornamentation works. For example, the weight of the gold taken out from the cellars for melting, according to the weight recorded by the gold work contractors in a particular transaction, was 887 kg. On melting and purification of the gold, the pure gold returned was only 624 kg. The loss in the process was 263 kg, which was nearly 30 per cent, indicating that there is no benchmark for the percentage of loss that should be permitted in the purification process. What was returned by the jewellers after purification was accepted, on trust, as accurate. This obviously led to speculation and allegations…….. These are some of the issues that seem to have beset the temple and its administration over the years, thereby leading to the conclusion that its management is lax and that it has consequently suffered severe loss of revenue, valuables and real estate.”</em>\r\nIt now seems that cooked up books of account are also one of the major reasons for the loss of GOD’s OWN WEALTH.', 'What former CAG Vinod Rai found when auditing the accounts of Kerala’s Shree Padmanabhaswamy temple', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-former-cag-vinod-rai-found-when-auditing-the-accounts-of-keralas-shree-padmanabhaswamy-temple', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:18:47', '2019-11-04 07:18:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1747', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1748, 1, '2019-09-30 07:53:39', '2019-09-30 07:53:39', 't Marcellus we never stop harping on the importance of clean books of accounts and why companies with cooked up numbers have caused major wealth erosion of shareholders/bondholders/banks over the years. Among other things, companies must pass our forensic audit to become part of our portfolio.\r\nThis article is an excerpt from Vinod Rai’s new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=511f5fb0e1&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D511f5fb0e1%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569905085758000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHksX8mAZraL7Ad2IC07K_k6FUgoA\"><em>‘Rethinking Good Governance’</em></a> and talks about the (mis)management of a renowned Thiruvananthapuram temple. Vinod Rai became a household name in India after the 2G and Coal Scam report he published during his tenure as the Comptroller and Auditor General of India. The Supreme Court of India appointed Vinod Rai to conduct a special audit of Kerala’s Shree Padmanabhaswamy temple. The temple was in the news for the discovery of huge amount of gold in its vaults and the consequent accusation of mismanagement of accounts &amp; pilferage.\r\nMr. Rai gives various instances of mismanagement in the temple in his books which is an eye opener.\r\n<em>“The temple did not have a system of ascertaining the weight and purity of gold and silver articles before handing them over to jewellers for melting and purification for ornamentation works. For example, the weight of the gold taken out from the cellars for melting, according to the weight recorded by the gold work contractors in a particular transaction, was 887 kg. On melting and purification of the gold, the pure gold returned was only 624 kg. The loss in the process was 263 kg, which was nearly 30 per cent, indicating that there is no benchmark for the percentage of loss that should be permitted in the purification process. What was returned by the jewellers after purification was accepted, on trust, as accurate. This obviously led to speculation and allegations…….. These are some of the issues that seem to have beset the temple and its administration over the years, thereby leading to the conclusion that its management is lax and that it has consequently suffered severe loss of revenue, valuables and real estate.”</em>\r\nIt now seems that cooked up books of account are also one of the major reasons for the loss of GOD’s OWN WEALTH.', 'What former CAG Vinod Rai found when auditing the accounts of Kerala’s Shree Padmanabhaswamy temple', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1747-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-09-30 07:53:39', '2019-09-30 07:53:39', '', 1747, 'http://marcellus.in/1747-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1750, 1, '2019-09-30 07:59:04', '2019-09-30 07:59:04', 'Marcellus (<a href=\"http://www.marcellus.in/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.marcellus.in&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569911985124000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4G330nO7aG7NrBBBmQjLxu679gg\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is hiring an Onboarding and Client Servicing manager in our investment operations team based in Mumbai (Andheri East). The role is combination of handling documentation (KYC, account opening, etc), managing client onboaring and delivering client servicing. The ideal candidate would energetic, driven, and obsessed about delivering best in class service experience to clients. She/he would also be process oriented, organised and able to self-manage work in pressure situations whilst working with multiple clients in parallel. The candidate would have excellent analytical, problem-solving and communication skills (both written and verbal), and would be proficient in Microsoft Office suite including Excel with working knowledge of CRM Platforms (such as Salesforce etc). Candidates with a Bachelors degree with 4 years of experience in similar role should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:careers@marcellus.in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 4<sup>th</sup> October 2019.', 'Onboarding and Client Servicing Manager', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', 'onboarding-and-client-servicing-manager', '', '', '2019-10-18 11:09:45', '2019-10-18 11:09:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=1750', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
(1755, 1, '2019-09-30 09:01:19', '2019-09-30 09:01:19', '', 'Marcellus-webinar-Tax-cuts--Consistent-Compounders-benefit-disproportionately', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-webinar-tax-cuts-consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-2', '', '', '2019-09-30 09:01:19', '2019-09-30 09:01:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Marcellus-webinar-Tax-cuts-Consistent-Compounders-benefit-disproportionately.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2271, 1, '2019-11-10 03:53:41', '2019-11-10 03:53:41', 'Nokia, the Finnish pioneer in mobile phones controlled almost 40% of the world’s mobile phone market a little over a decade ago. In no time, it disappeared into oblivion as far as its position as a mobile phone maker is concerned (although its network equipment business continues to thrive). At Marcellus, we look for competitive advantages or moats in a company, but more importantly the sustainability of the same. Nokia is the best demonstration of why competitive advantage is a dynamic concept and failure to strengthen it relentlessly will eventually lead to its downfall. Furthermore, the Nokia example shows why technology is such a weak source of competitive advantage – something that can be replicated if not bettered too soon. But this piece is more about the Scandinavian/Nordic approach to welfare which in turn breeds innovation. It talks about a town in Finland which as one of the key locations for Nokia got severely affected by Nokia’s fall but bounced back quickly as a hub of innovative tech companies, thanks to both the Finnish state’s efforts as well as the culture of corporate responsibility in the Nordics by which Nokia ensured the employees it made redundant were rehabilitated.\r\n“For about a decade, starting in 2005, Nokia suffered setback after setback. Lietsalmi ascribes this slump to a change in the company’s overall approach, from aggressive innovation to something approaching complacency. The company was a world-leader in mobile handsets, he said, when its executive staff decided to adopt a more conservative strategy. “The leadership, including myself, started to think that [success was] not about inventing new things that much, but about managing growth,” he says. Hungry foreign competitors, meanwhile, were innovating at a frantic pace.\r\n“If you stay with that mindset,” he says, wistfully, “then when the growth is over, someone else will come and disrupt the market.” Nokia had grown complacent, he says, under the assumption that the top spot was theirs for good. At the same time, cheaper Chinese exports threatened its more basic models. Though the company attempted to make forays into smartphones with touchscreen devices such as 2004’s 7710 model, its efforts failed to capture the imagination of the public. In 2007, when Apple introduced the iPhone, Nokia simply couldn’t keep up: Despite selling reasonably well initially, its competing N97 model had significant hardware and software problems, and was eventually written off by the company as a “tremendous disappointment.” Within four years, the company had lost 75% of its market value.\r\nBy this point, Oulu had been a key Nokia location for decades.…In 2016, with almost 2,000 lost Nokia jobs, Oulu’s unemployment rate rose to more than 16%, about double the national average….It happens all the time—when the biggest employer in town goes down, it takes the town with it.\r\nBut Oulu wasn’t like Flint, Michigan, or its Rust Belt brothers. Instead, Ala-Mursula tells me, the Nokia layoffs took two key resources—concentrated talent, and intellectual property—and spread them across the region within Finland, like a child blowing the fluff from a dandelion. According to the city government, in 2017 alone, Oulu became home to 1,175 new companies, many of which were started by or employ the talented engineers previously been at Nokia’s helm.\r\nNokia itself is, in part, to thank for these efforts. After Microsoft came in, the company instituted a “bridge program” designed to help its workers find jobs in other companies. “The idea was to give social support to the people who are leaving their jobs with Nokia,” regional manager Sankari told me on a tour of Nokia’s present-day factory and 5G facility. “We help them to be employed, help them find a new career as fast as possible.”\r\nOf the thousand or so people who have been a part of Nokia’s bridge program, more than 80% have found their way onto a new path, Sankari says. Some received coaching; others were given Nokia intellectual property, with a view to starting something new.\r\nSuch Nordic corporate responsibility isn’t totally unusual, Sankari adds, though Nokia’s commitment is particularly deep-rooted. “Quite often the bridge program is referred in Finnish media, at least, as kind of a best practice,” she says. “It’s kind of a Scandinavian system and heritage that you need to take care of your employees so that they can have a good life, even if you might not be able to provide it for them.””', 'Nokia’s collapse turned a sleepy town in Finland into an internet wonderland', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nokias-collapse-turned-a-sleepy-town-in-finland-into-an-internet-wonderland', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:01:16', '2019-11-11 04:01:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2271', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(1778, 1, '2018-11-12 09:34:36', '2018-11-12 09:34:36', '', 'Coffee Can Investing: What Mahesh Patil learned from legends Chandrakant Sampat, Parag Parikh', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-what-mahesh-patil-learned-from-legends-chandrakant-sampat-parag-parikh', '', '', '2019-11-28 08:37:06', '2019-11-28 08:37:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1778', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1780, 1, '2018-08-06 09:37:25', '2018-08-06 09:37:25', '', 'Coffee Can Investing | S Naren\'s biggest contrarian call: Betting his house on a real estate crash', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-s-narens-biggest-contrarian-call-betting-his-house-on-a-real-estate-crash', '', '', '2019-11-28 09:20:06', '2019-11-28 09:20:06', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1780', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1782, 1, '2018-08-09 09:38:53', '2018-08-09 09:38:53', '', 'Coffee Can Investing | To understand a company better, speak to line managers, not promoters, says SageOne’s Vartak', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-to-understand-a-company-better-speak-to-line-managers-not-promoters-says-sageones-vartak', '', '', '2019-11-28 07:17:48', '2019-11-28 07:17:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1782', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1790, 1, '2018-10-10 09:48:45', '2018-10-10 09:48:45', '', 'Coffee Can Investing | Reliance MF’s Manish Gunwani shares his recipe on mastering the art of investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-reliance-mfs-manish-gunwani-shares-his-recipe-on-mastering-the-art-of-investing', '', '', '2019-11-28 07:15:19', '2019-11-28 07:15:19', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1790', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1792, 1, '2018-11-12 09:51:06', '2018-11-12 09:51:06', '', 'Coffee Can Investing | Rajeev Thakkar shares his mantra of parallel investing in global markets', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-rajeev-thakkar-shares-his-mantra-of-parallel-investing-in-global-markets', '', '', '2019-11-28 07:14:27', '2019-11-28 07:14:27', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1792', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1794, 1, '2019-04-30 09:52:30', '2019-04-30 09:52:30', '', 'Coffee Can Investing | Navneet Munot feels investing in equities is more about EQ than IQ', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-navneet-munot-feels-investing-in-equities-is-more-about-eq-than-iq', '', '', '2019-11-28 07:13:31', '2019-11-28 07:13:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=1794', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(1977, 1, '2019-11-01 06:08:29', '2019-11-01 06:08:29', '<em>Published on: 25 September, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>As tax evading businesses and investors in real estate stare into the abyss, we look at the forceful resurgence of a north Indian business community which was uprooted by Partition. The Khatris’ history is one of remarkable enterprise and outstanding success punctuated by politically motivated loot of their wealth. Today, with momentum on their side, the Khatris stand second only to the Marwaris in their wealth &amp; power. </strong>\n\n<em>“The association of the Khatris and Aroras with business is even more deep…In Jalandhar, Amritsar, and the big towns now part of Pakistan (Lahore, Rawalpindi, Multan and Peshawar) the Khatris occupied the commanding heights of business, ahead of the Banias, who ‘were practically unknown to the West of Lahore.’ They controlled much of the region’s business in shawls and woollens and, along with the Shikarpuri Lohanas, also the overland trans-Asian trade in dry fruits, carpets and furs across the Khyber Pass. In addition, there were migrant Khatri trading families who, from the late eighteenth century, had established themselves in the cities of the Gangetic valley as bankers…and military contractors for the Raj…”</em> – <strong>Harish Damodaran</strong> in  “India’s New Capitalists: Caste, Business &amp; Industry in a Modern Nation” (2008)\n\n<strong>Change produces dislocation…</strong>\nIn last week’s note we highlighted how the<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\"> Indian economy</a> is being altered by resets around reduced use of cash, a crackdown on tax evasion, GST and, more generally, the creation of a more integrated, more networked economy (see <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\nAs better roads &amp; communication networks create a more integrated economy, the rewards for being a broker, trader or intermediary are falling sharply in India. To take an extreme example, in the early 1990s stockbrokers in Mumbai used to earn commissions in excess of 2%. Now, the same profession struggles to get commissions of 0.10%. Why? Because the rise of modern communication networks and low barriers to entry has crushed the returns to being a stock market intermediary in India. A similar fate seems likely to befall tens of millions of Indians who currently earn a living as retailers, distributors, wholesalers or traders either of daily essentials or of commodities.\n\n<strong>…and the Khatris have demonstrated how to deal with dislocation</strong>\nAs Indian businesses grapple with economic disruption, they can draw inspiration from North India’s remarkable Khatri community which over the past eight hundred years has suffered brutal reverses and reinvented itself repeatedly. Their ability to respond successfully to setbacks and grasp a wide variety of economic opportunities – from manufacturing, to trading &amp; banking, to being entertainers and even civil servants – sets them apart from India’s other great business communities like the Marwaris, the Gujaratis or the Parsis.\n\nSo, who are the Khatris? From our reading of two really interesting books on India’s business communities – Scott C.Levi’s “Caravans: Punjabi Khatri Merchants on the Silk Road” (2015) and Harish Damodaran’s “India’s New Capitalists: Caste, Business &amp; Industry in a Modern Nation” (2008) – and from our discussions with Khatri businessmen, it would appear that the Khatris are predominantly Punjabis and, to a lesser extent, Sindhis, with roots in two cities – Multan and Shikarpur - which lie on the borders of Sindh and Punjab in present day Pakistan. The community seems to be of Kshatriya (warrior) descent and all ten of Sikhism’s gurus appear to be of Khatri descent. Interestingly, in contemporary Pakistan, there are also Muslim Khatris who trace their origins to the two cities mentioned earlier in this paragraph.\n\n<strong>From Bankers &amp; Traders to Bollywood &amp; Delhi Royalty: The Khatris’ Reinvention</strong>\nThe earliest records we can find of the Khatri ascendancy is in the two hundred years either side of the sixteenth century. In this 400 year period, the Khatris became the spine of India’s trade with what is today Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Russia. Through the passes in the Hindu Kush mountains (Khyber, Bolan, Sangar and Sarwand), the Khatris would take tens of thousands of camels loaded with cotton, spices, weapons &amp; sugar and sell these products in the great bazaars of Iran, central Asia and Russia (all the way up to Moscow). They would then finance the local harvest in the hinterland around market cities like Isfahan, Kandahar, Samarkand, Astrakhan, etc . Then on the way back, the Khatris would import to India hundreds of thoroughbred horses from Central Asia along with dry fruits, fresh fruits, carpets and furs.\n\nAs Scott Levi says in his book: <em>“We have seen that, from the Middle of the sixteenth century, the Multanis not only mediated India’s trade with Central Asia, they established settlements in key locations beyond the Hindu Kush and laid the foundation for an extensive commercial network that would endure even into the twentieth century. A circulating population of tens of thousands of Multanis, and then Shikarpuris, moved merchandise, wealth and information between north-western India and distant markets of Afghanistan, Central Asia, Iran and Russia, eventually reaching as far as Moscow and St.Petersburg…From their time as young apprentices, agents of these family firms were instructed in complicated legal codes, accounting techniques, various methods to calculate interest, and other skills that they would need to utilize the commercial techniques available to them…The agents would then be loaned a large amount of capital, usually in the form of cotton textiles, before they would travel by caravan to a distant market. On arriving at these markets…as they gradually sold their merchandise, the agents would reinvest the cash retrieved in other profitable activities, most notably short-term high interest moneylending ventures. Following this model, agents could realise a 200 to 300 per cent annual increase in their total wealth. After several years – the Multanis’ average tenure abroad was seven or eight years - the agents would return home…”</em>\n\nThe sheer skill and success of the Multani and Shikarpuri merchants made them obvious targets for envious local elites. The first major attack on the community took place in the middle of the eighteenth century. The Ghilzai Afghans, who occupied the Safavid capital of Isfhan in 1722, came down hard on the Indian merchants by looting and extorting from them. They were overthrown by Nadir Shah in 1736 and he in turn retained policies hostile to the Indians. This gave his supporters a ready excuse to confiscate the Indians’ wealth &amp; properties.\n\nThe Indian merchants regrouped under the patronage of Ahmed Shah Durrani (who ruled from 1747 to 1722) and shifted base from Multan to Shikarpur (with the latter city being a Durrani protectorate). The next blow to the Indian merchants came with the rise of Imperial Russia (1865-1918) – during the 1870s the Russians implemented a series of policies designed to undermine the Indians’ business interests in Central Asia. And then when the Bolsheviks took charge in Moscow in 1918 it was game over for the Indian businessmen in Central Asia.\n\nThe Khatris then reinvented themselves as regional merchants, moneylenders and officials in pre-Partition Punjab. As Harish Damodaran says in his book, <em>“The majority were merchants, moneylenders and shopkeepers, if not employed as lawyers, teachers, munshis (clerks) or kanungos (revenue officials…). Moreover, the land to which the Khatris belonged had very little industry or rail infrastructure till well into the twentieth century…industry in Punjab was nothing more than an assortment of flour mills, iron foundries, cotton ginneries and shawl-making and carpet-weaving units. The scope for emergence of big indigenous capital in a primarily agriculture-based, landlocked province was limited.”</em>\n\nThe Partition of India resulted in the Khatris being dislocated again from their heartland in undivided Punjab. Quoting again from Harish Damodaran’s engrossing book, “<em>The community’s full-fledged emergence on the national business map had to wait for a cataclysmic event like Partition, which literally pushed them in droves towards Delhi and its neighbourhoods. This massive exodus marked a human tragedy unparalleled in history, even as it opened up new avenues for a middle class with sound moorings in education and trade…Proximity to the seat of power provided a platform from where they could be heard and also a vantage position to influence policy. A combination of enterprise, articulation and strategic closeness to the national capital – which, in itself, was becoming a major growth hub…- created conditions for Khatri capital to flourish in the post-Partition period.”</em>\n\nToday the roll call of prominent Khatri businesses is long enough for this community to be rated second only to the Marwaris in the power &amp; influence they wield especially in the National Capital Region (NCR) which is clearly the Khatris’ stronghold with nearly 10% of the population of India’s capital city belonging to that community. However, since the Marwaris were not dislocated as profoundly as the Khatris by Partition, the rapidity of the Khatris\' rise in independent India marks them out as a uniquely resourceful community.\n\nProminent Khatri businesses include M&amp;M, HeroMoto, Hero Cycles, Apollo Tyres and most of the auto ancillary companies in the NCR (Subros, Rico, Sona Koyo, etc), the various entities of the Thapar group (Ballarpur, Greaves Cotton, Crompton), Ranbaxy, Max Life, East India Hotels, Berger Paints, the Apeejay group (owners of the Park Hotels chain), the late Ponty Chadha (king of liquor distribution in the North) and the India Today group. Most of India’s sports goods industry – centered around Jalandhar and Meerut – is controlled by Khatris. In Bollywood, the Khatris’ supremacy has been absolute since Independence. Raj Kapoor, BR Chopra, Yash Chopra, Subhas Ghai, Dev Anand, Ekta Kapoor, Prakash Mehra, Shekhar Kapur and Vidhu Vinod Chopra are all Khatris.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nMany of us see communities in static &amp; stereotypical terms eg. the martial Sikh, the cerebral Tamil Brahmin, the creative Bengali, the cunning Marwari. In the midst of great change, such labels become increasingly irrelevant. As Prime Minister Modi rings the reset bell, entire communities in India look likely to see their fortunes fluctuate. The Khatris’ story tells us that enterprising communities with high levels of education, with access to political power and with the adaptability to move across a wide range of professions will excel in the new India. Unsurprisingly, all of the companies in our Consistent Compounder Portfolio which hail from the NCR have promoters from the Khatri community.\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Excelling Amidst Disruption - India’s Khatri Community', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1724-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:08:29', '2019-11-01 06:08:29', '', 1724, 'http://marcellus.in/1724-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1926, 1, '2019-10-08 05:00:22', '2019-10-08 05:00:22', '', 'veghese', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'veghese', '', '', '2019-10-08 05:00:22', '2019-10-08 05:00:22', '', 1925, 'http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/veghese.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(1927, 1, '2019-10-23 08:26:31', '2019-10-23 08:26:31', '<em>Published on: 8th October, 2019</em>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"wp-image-1926 aligncenter\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/veghese-194x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"215\" height=\"333\" /></p>\n<strong>Simon Sinek’s latest book ‘The Infinite Game’ should be celebrated as a breath of fresh air in the futile discourse around the rightful purpose of capitalism. In that context, one of India’s greatest sons – the late Verghese Kurien, the man who made Amul a powerhouse - deserves to be lauded as the greatest player of the ‘Infinite Game’. We can learn from Sinek &amp; Kurien about how ‘just cause’ lie at the heart of great enterprises.</strong>\n\n<em>“…he was the man who revolutionised milk production in India, transforming the country from a milk-deficient place to the world’s largest producer (with 17% of the global total), and along the way drawing millions of rural farmers out of poverty…Few others had his tenacity, his drive, his sheer bloody-mindedness, to get government ministers and foot-dragging babus to yield to his ideas. No village panchayat, no landowner, no grasping corporatist, stood for long in his way. One minister of agriculture tried to remove him from the National Dairy Development Board, of which he was founder-chairman for 33 years; instead, the minister lost his own job. The saying in Delhi was, “Don’t touch Kurien.” Once engaged in a knuckle-banging argument, he never gave in; and he never gave in, of course, because he was right.” –</em><strong> The Economist’s obituary on Verghese Kurien, 22 September 2012 </strong>(source: <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/obituary/2012/09/22/verghese-kurien\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.economist.com/obituary/2012/09/22/verghese-kurien</a>)\n\n<strong>The Greatest Exponent of the Infinite Game….</strong>\nNine years ago Simon Sinek shot to fame with his incredibly popular <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp0HIF3SfI4\">Ted Talk</a>. His books <a href=\"https://simonsinek.com/product/start-with-why/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Start With Why</a>and <a href=\"https://simonsinek.com/product/leaders-eat-last/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Leaders Eat Last </a> have been an inspiration for those looking to build businesses with purpose. In his latest book, The Infinite Game, he extends those principles for those who want to build businesses that outlast them. In an interview with Greg Thomas of Workday (see <a href=\"https://blogs.workday.com/simon-sinek-to-succeed-in–business-you-must-understand-the-game/ \" rel=\"nofollow\">https://blogs.workday.com/simon-sinek-to-succeed-in–business-you-must-understand-the-game/</a> Sinek cites the example of the Vietnamese war which the Americans lost despite winning all the battles. Sinek says <em>‘It’s not so much that America lost the war, it’s that America was fighting to win and the North Vietnamese were fighting for their lives. America didn’t lose, they ran out of the will or the resources to stay in the game and dropped out of it.</em>’ For anyone seeking to build a lasting business, it is important to distinguish the battles from the war and thus play Sinek’s infinite game.\n\nIn fact, quoting further from Sinek’s interview with Workday illustrates this point more clearly:\n<ul>\n 	<li>“<em>There is no such thing as winning business—it doesn’t exist. We can have wins inside a business like you can have battles, but there’s no such thing as “winning” business. The problem is too many business owners, too many leaders don’t know the game they’re playing. They talk about being number one, being the best, beating their competition. Based upon what agreed-upon metrics? Based upon what agreed upon timeframes? There’s no such thing.</em>\n<em>When we play with a finite mindset in the infinite game, there are a few very consistent and predictable things that happen. Over the course of time, you will see a decline in trust, cooperation, and innovation. Eventually, your organization will run out of the will or the resources to stay in the game. We call it bankruptcy; we call it a merger and acquisition.”</em></li>\n 	<li><em>In order to build an infinite business, you need to have several things in place. “First, you have to have a just cause. A cause so just that you would willingly sacrifice your interest to advance that cause. Second, you have to have trusting teams. It means that we work with and for people such that we can raise our hands and say, “I made a mistake or I’m scared or I have troubles at home and they’re affecting my work,” without any fear of humiliation and retribution.</em>\n<em>Third, you have to have a worthy rival. They reveal to us our weaknesses; that’s what makes us so uncomfortable in their presence or when their names come up. Instead of getting angry about them, try to learn what it is about them that people admire and love so much, and maybe focus that energy into working on ourselves. Self-improvement. Every day. Constantly.</em>\n<em>Fourth, you have to have the capacity for existential flexibility. This is much bigger than the daily flexibility that we need to have in our jobs. An existential flex is the capacity to make a dramatically huge strategic shift in an entirely new direction to advance our cause.</em>\n<em>And finally, you have to have the courage to lead. That means the courage to say, “That’s bad for business, and I’m going to do it differently.” People may call you naïve and say you don’t understand the business. You may say they don’t understand the game they’re playing. That takes tremendous courage.</em>\n<em>…I’m talking about the ability to massively shift an entire business model because it’s the right thing to do to advance the movement. Why is it that the technology industry invented the electronic book, and not the publishing industry? Because publishing thought they were in the book business, not the reading business. Why is it that the movie industry and the television industry didn’t invent Netflix? It’s because companies can be so preoccupied with protecting the status quo they don’t make these existential flexes until they’re forced to, and then they’re playing defense the entire time.”</em></li>\n</ul>\n<strong>…Lived &amp; worked in Anand, Gujarat</strong>\nSinek’s new book isn’t available in India as yet but reading the Workday blog reminded us of Amul and the man who engineered this remarkable enterprise’s rise to glory – Verghese Kurien.\n\nBorn into an affluent Syrian Anglican family in Kerala in 1921, Kurien excelled in academics &amp; sport first in Loyola College in Chennai, then in the College of Engineering (Guindy) and, finally, in Michigan State University (where he was sent on an elite scholarship sponsored by the Government of India). Upon his return to India, in 1949 the Government sent him to work at a run-down creamery in Anand in what was then part of Bombay state and is now Gujarat.\n\nKurien hated his Government job in Anand and when he quit a few months later, Tribhuvandas Patel, a prominent political leader of local farmers, persuaded Kurien to stay and help run the Kaira District Cooperative Milk Producers\' Union Limited which came to be known popularly as Amul dairy). 25 years later this co-operative was merged into other co-operatives to create the now legendary Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation Ltd (GCMMF).\n\nArguably, the most striking example of sustained co-operation on an epic scale in India, GCMMF generated revenues in FY19 of Rs 330 billion (nearly US$5 billion). That is 3x as much as its closest competitor Nestle India’s revenues and that is only 20% shy of Hindustan Unilever’s revenues. On this measure, GCMMF is India’s second largest FMCG company.\n\nNot only is GCMMF big, it grows much faster than its rivals. Over the past decade, GCMMF has grown revenues at 17% CAGR compared to Nestle’s 10% and HUL’s 9%. Over the last five years, the growth gap between GCMMF and its two largest rivals is even bigger! In key FMCG product categories such as butter, cheese and packaged milk, Amul has been the longstanding market leader in the face of sustained efforts by MNCs to break its dominance. GCMMF is also India’s biggest exporter of dairy products.\n\nGrowth aside, the scale on which GCMMF operates is astonishing. GCMMF’s daily procurement of milk is 23 million litres from over 18,700 village milk co-operative societies (which include 3.6 million milk producer members). The way GCMMF aggregates the milk produced by over 3 million families into the village co-operative dairy and then further aggregates that into the district co-operative which in turn feeds into the mother dairy has been studied by numerous management experts.\n\nSo how does GCMMF give a fair deal to its farmers, its management team, its 10,000 dealers, its one million retailers and its hundreds of millions of customers? At the core of this pioneering co-operative’s success appear to be four factors:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>Careful cultivation of brand:</strong> Its 60 year old brand with the its distinctive imagery of the little girl in the polka red dotted dress has been central to Amul\'s success. Cultivated with great effort and patience, numerous surveys has shown ‘Amul’ to be one of the most trusted brands in the country. As Kurien says in his autobiography <em>‘I Too Had a Dream’</em> (2005), <em>“…we had to make the products as attractive as possible to the market.. We sought help from advertising professionals…In 1966…the Amul account was given to the Advertising and Sales Promotion Company (ASP) with the brief that they should dislodge Polson from its ‘premier brand’ position in Bombay. That was when Eustace Fernandes of ASP created the Amul mascot – the mischievous, endearing girl. The image of the Amul girl went down so well with consumers that very soon it became synonymous with Amul….Together, the team at ASP gave Amul butter its memorable and catchy campaign tagline ‘Utterly, butterly, delicious’ – which broke all records to become the longest-running campaigns in Indian advertising history.”</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Sustained alignment with stakeholders’ interests: </strong>The practical concept – implemented daily in millions of homes - of a fair deal for the farmer and the linked idea of the disintermediation of the middleman. As Harish Damodaran explains in <em>‘India’s New Capitalists’</em> (2008), <em>“A farmer pouring buffalo milk with 6% fat content to a Gujarat co-operative 2004-05 would receive Rs 13-14 per litre, which is 25-30% more than the corresponding farmgate prices paid by dairies elsewhere in the country...If the electronic tester displayed in front were to show the fat content for a particular lot of milk at 8%, the milkman would be entitled to a proportionately higher prices of Rs 17-18 per litre. Taking an average rate of Rs 13, the GCMMF dairies would in 2004-05 have pumped in around Rs 2,800 core to their farm members, constituting 70% of their aggregate turnover of Rs 4,000 crore. By contrast, milk purchase costs are less than half of the value of product sales for a company like Nestle India, marking the essential difference between a farmer controlled co-operative and an investor owned concern.”</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Political and regulatory capture: </strong>GCMMF and Kurien were able to co-opt almost every single politician of note in independent India to help them promote the cause of Gujarati farmers. As Kurien’s autobiography shows, Sardar Patel, Tribhuvandas Patel, JL Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, Morarji Desai, TT Krishnamachari, YB Chavan, Indira Gandhi - basically anybody who mattered in New Delhi or Western Indian politics was brought to Anand, wowed by the scale of the miracle in Anand and converted to the cause of promoting Amul. Kurien explains in his autobiography how he repeatedly used his political clout to hurt his competitors by getting bans, embargoes, tariffs, etc imposed on them. Eg. in 1962, upon the Indian Army’s request, Kurien stopped supplying butter to the open market and instead diverted all his output to the Army. When a rival company, Polson, took advantage of this by increasing the prices of its butter, Kurien simply went to the Government and had Polson’s butter output frozen. When Polson’s aggrieved promoter complained to the relevant Minister in Ahmedabad, Kurien told him in front of the Minister <em>“You bloody bastard. You come here and speak lies to the Minister. I will castrate you.”</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Calculated risk taking a consistent basis: </strong>With a clear goal of helping farmer’s earn more from their produce, Kurien repeatedly took major risks to open up new opportunities for Amul. For example, in the 1950s, in the flush season Amul’s farmers were producing twice as much as milk as was required by the Bombay market (Amul’s main market at that point). The logical thing to do was to convert this surplus into skimmed milk powder and condensed milk. However, at that point of time the received wisdom the world over was that buffalo milk – which was Amul’s main output – could not be used to make skimmed milk powder and condensed milk. In a ‘world first’ demonstration of its kind, using a machine made by L&amp;T, Kurien’s colleague and college friend, HM Dalaya, demonstrated to the Bombay Government that buffalo milk could be used to make skimmed milk powder. (Incidentally, the demo took place a couple of kilometres from Marcellus’ office in Andheri East.) A few years later, Amul made cheese from buffalo milk, another world first. Kurien’s autobiography <em>‘I Too Had a Dream’ </em>contains several examples of audacious risk taking on a pan-India including the launch of ‘Operation Flood’ in 1970 – the scheme which took the Amul model pan-India and catapulted India from a milk powder importing beggarly nation into a surplus milk exporter. (If you grew up in the India of the 1970s and 1980s, you owe your physical development to Operation Flood milk and hence to Kurien!)</li>\n</ol>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIn Sinek’s world it does not matter whether an enterprise is for-profit or not-for-profit, private sector or public sector. What matters more is over what horizon the enterprise thinks, plans and acts. If these enterprises don’t think, plan and act over very long time frames, it is ‘game over’ for them regardless of how good their staff are, how strong their competitive advantages are, how strong their balance sheet is. Furthermore, to sustain any purposeful endeavour over long periods of time, the enterprise needs to be centred around a ‘just cause’ [whether it is for-profit or otherwise is a secondary distinction because customers are not bothered about the enterprise’s profits].\n\nIn India, we find a very small number of listed enterprises have the mindset to play the infinite game. Not only are most promoters short termist, they have no cause to pursue (the two issues are obviously linked). As a result they flit from one opportunity to other whilst constant being buffeted by free market forces and being preyed upon by bankers, brokers and corporate financiers.\n\nTo quote from my 2016 bestseller ‘The Unusual Billionaires’: <em>“’Most Indian companies tend to focus on short-term results and hence that makes them frequently do things that deviate away from their articulated strategy…these deviations take them away from the path they have to travel to achieve their long term goals…the willingness to resist the temptation of short-term ‘off strategy’ profits for long-term sustainable gain is not there in most leading companies,’ writes Rama Bijapurkar, a leading market strategy consultant…The typical promoter profiled in [“The Unusual Billionaires’] is patient and persevering, even bordering of the boring. He ignores short-term thrills based on flavour-of-the-month ideas. He consciously rejects aggressive forays into unrelated businesses…Such behaviour requires tremendous patience and a willingness to ignore the stock market’s proclamations regarding prevailing fads and fashions.” </em>\n\nAsian Paints, Berger Paints, Marico and HDFC Bank are amongst the companies covered in detail in “The Unusual Billionaires.” All four companies are a part of our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. You can see here how our portfolio is doing:\n\nVerghese Kurien was ousted from his leadership role in GCMMF in 2006 by politically vested interests. (If you are interested in what transpired.The great man passed away six years later. Verghese Kurien’s legacy will outlast the vested interests who found it fit to stab this modern day Caesar in his Rome.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Greatest Exponent Of The ‘Infinite Game’: Verghese Kurien', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1925-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 08:26:31', '2019-10-23 08:26:31', '', 1925, 'http://marcellus.in/1925-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1987, 1, '2019-10-23 08:45:24', '2019-10-23 08:45:24', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 22 March, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Around the world, making money from stocks does involve a significant element of market timing. However, for a small minority of stocks in India, the classical value investing paradigm does not readily work. These companies are best understood using our ‘Consistent Compounders\' paradigm.</strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“Given the way price multiples have expanded for high-quality companies over the last decade, should investors be concerned about the sustainability of stock returns from such companies if they buy at current levels? Our answer is a resounding NO. As we show in Appendix 5 of this book, whether we look at bull market phases of the Indian stock market or bear market phases, all the evidence points in one direction – starting-period valuations have very little impact on long-medium run investment returns in India. The lack of correlation between starting-period valuations and long-term holding period returns seems to be specific to India.”</em> – <strong>Rakshit Ranjan, Pranab Uniyal &amp; Saurabh Mukherjea in ‘Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth’</strong>, 2018, Penguin Random House</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Value investing works</strong>\n80 years ago Benjamin Graham and David Dodd introduced to the investing world the then revolutionary and interlinked concepts of ‘value investing’ and ‘margin of safety’ in their book ‘Security Analysis’. In an era ravaged by the Great Depression, the two men pointed out that the way to make money in the stockmarket with a high degree of certainty is to buy companies with low P/B, low P/E multiples and low debt. Such investments meant that your purchase price would be significantly below the fair value of the stock thus providing a ‘margin of safety’ for the investor.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In the years since the publication of Security Analysis, numerous academics have shown that value investing does generate superior results in the US market and elsewhere. Even more famously, Warren Buffett in a celebrated 1984 speech at Columbia University (<a href=\"https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/columbia-business/superinvestors</a>) reaffirmed the superiority of value investing to other investing approaches: <em>“The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market. Essentially, they exploit those discrepancies without the efficient market theorist’s concern as to whether the stocks are bought on Monday or Thursday, or whether it is January or July, etc. Incidentally, when businessmen buy businesses, which is just what our Graham &amp; Dodd investors are doing through the medium of marketable stocks…Our Graham &amp; Dodd investors, needless to say, do not discuss beta, the capital asset pricing model, or covariance in returns among securities. These are not subjects of any interest to them….The investors simply focus on two variables: price and value.”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">In India too one could argue that for the majority of stocks, value investing (i.e. buying companies when they are inexpensive on P/E) makes sense. In fact, one can divide the Indian stockmarket into broadly three sets of companies:\n<strong>Type A</strong> stocks comprise around 80-90% of the Indian market. Such companies find it difficult to grow earnings over extended periods of time as they have no sustainable competitive advantages and hence no ability to generate a Return on Capital (ROC) in excess of the Cost of Capital (COC). The gap between ROC and COC is Free Cash Flow which in turn in the means by which a company finances its growth. Lacking sustainable FCF such companies struggle to invest in growing their businesses. Examples of such companies are India’s telcos and its airlines – companies with never ending volume growth but no sustainable competitive advantages and hence no earnings growth.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you assume that you make returns from investing in any company from two sources – either the P/E expands or the earnings expand - with Type A stocks, your only hope of making money is that the P/E expands (since the earnings are unlikely to expand). If you find a fund manager who can double the Type A company’s P/E over a decade, your returns will compound at 7% CAGR. If the fund manager you have found has mistimed his investment i.e. he entered when the P/E was high (he wasn’t a value investor) and exited when the P/E had halved, your return will be -7% CAGR.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Type B</strong> stocks account for a further 5-10% of the Indian market and this segment includes good franchises like Maruti or HUL which have meaningful competitive advantages. As a result, in most years, these companies will have a ROC in excess of COC. The reinvestment of the free cash flow will allow these companies to grow the business at around 12% i.e. the same rate as nominal GDP growth on a cross-cycle basis.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here too value investing works. If you can find a fund manager who enters Maruti at 13x P/E and exits a decade later at 26x P/E, the stock would give you returns of around 19% [12% from earnings growth and 7% from P/E doubling]. If, on the other hand, your fund manager has mistimed your investment i.e. he entered when the P/E was high (he wasn’t a value investor) and exited when the P/E had halved, your return will be 5% CAGR [12% minus 7%]. With Type B stocks, a committed value investor like Warren Buffett can generate high teens returns if he times his entry point well. In fact, this is exactly what Buffett’s legend is built around.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If you and I were living in America (or in any other large economy barring India), Type A &amp; B stocks would form our entire investment universe. However, in the Indian stock-market there exists a third subset of stocks – <strong>Type C</strong>.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The Indian stockmarket has a unique subset of companies</strong>\nAs stated by our fund manager, Rakshit Ranjan, in our February 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf\">http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_Feb_2019-1.pdf</a>), “<em>India is perhaps the only large economy where several industries are dominated by one or two players, and these dominant players make returns on capital employed (ROCE – earnings generated on each unit of capital employed on the balance sheet) significantly higher than the cost of capital (or COE – cost of equity) for several decades. For instance, it is not hard to find global players who dominate their industries – Walmart dominates US grocery retailing, Carrefour dominates French grocery retailing, Toyota dominates the mid-segment car market in Japan, Hanes dominates Europe’s innerwear market. However, none of these companies make ROEs substantially higher than their cost of equity… On the other hand, there are several industries in India where one or two companies not only have a dominant market share, their ROCEs have remained substantially above the cost of equity for decades in a row…”</em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We can call these Indian companies – whose ROCs are a million miles above their COC for decades on an end – <strong>Type C</strong>. The vast free cash flows that these firms generate decade after decade allow them to not only pay generous dividends (dividend yields for such firms tend to be 2-3%) but also reinvest in growing the business. Earnings growth for such firms tends to be around 25% per annum.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">With a Type C firm, if our fund manager is able to get the timing of his entry and exit right, the results are spectacular: 25% earnings growth + 7% from doubling of P/E + 2% from dividend yield = 34% per annum return. However, since many of these firms are trading at optically high P/Es, let’s assume that their P/Es halve over the next decade. Even then these the Type C firms produce a return of 20% [25% earnings growth – 7% for P/E halving + 2% dividend yield]. Interestingly, even with P/Es halving over ten years, Type C firms produce returns similar to what Type B firms do with P/E doubling [20% vs 19%].</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\nFor 99% of Indian stocks, value investing provides the only route to decent returns (in the mid-high teens). The challenge that India’s Type C firms pose to Graham &amp; Dodd’s value investment paradigm can be understood in the context of the investment framework that these legends had laid out in ‘Security Analysis’.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The value of a firm is nothing more than its future cashflows (discounted appropriately). These future cashflows are nothing more than the gap between ROC and COC. If the gap between ROC and COC does not close (say, because the Indian economy is not as competitive as the US economy or the Chinese economy) – as happens for the Type C companies in India – the value of the firm is very high. Such firms can therefore command very high P/E multiples. Our Consistent Compounders Portfolio consists of such companies (click here for more information: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf\">http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Mar-2019-1.pdf</a>). To our regret, less than 1% of the stocks in the Indian market fall in this category! For the remainder of the investment universe in India – as in America – the rules of Graham &amp; Doddsville can be successfully applied. The table below summarises the taxonomy of Types A, B &amp; C that we have outlined above.</span></em></p>\n<img class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-663\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/22blog.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"766\" height=\"251\" />\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\"> http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved\n\n&nbsp;', 'Marcellus: Value Investing - The Indian Challenge', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '661-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 08:45:24', '2019-10-23 08:45:24', '', 661, 'http://marcellus.in/661-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2026, 1, '2019-10-25 07:11:52', '2019-10-25 07:11:52', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\r\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\r\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\r\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\r\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\r\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here:  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1934-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 07:11:52', '2019-10-25 07:11:52', '', 1934, 'http://marcellus.in/1934-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1935, 1, '2019-10-14 07:14:26', '2019-10-14 07:14:26', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\r\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\r\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\r\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\r\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\r\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b50b4408f5&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db50b4408f5%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHeTQ-OqXI7SwtRFc_ecQ9tc6J2wQ\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1934-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:14:26', '2019-10-14 07:14:26', '', 1934, 'http://marcellus.in/1934-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1936, 1, '2019-10-13 07:14:34', '2019-10-13 07:14:34', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, here’a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'stephen-schwarzman-hung-out-a-shingle-then-he-waited', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1936', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2030, 1, '2019-10-25 08:28:11', '2019-10-25 08:28:11', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, here’a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:28:11', '2019-10-25 08:28:11', '', 1936, 'http://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2029, 1, '2019-10-25 08:26:24', '2019-10-25 08:26:24', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07f8cfabed&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D07f8cfabed%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEc9ZoCABBf-RKn1WErntFrSTI_vA\">here’s</a> a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:26:24', '2019-10-25 08:26:24', '', 1936, 'http://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1937, 1, '2019-10-14 07:15:40', '2019-10-14 07:15:40', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6750852d31&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6750852d31%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcZ8Acs3zoCcmUOt0ho_bzS7XRKA\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=24cd1e8e4e&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D24cd1e8e4e%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGS1eY5LPpvqrfB8baG5DX204rg-g\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07f8cfabed&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D07f8cfabed%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEc9ZoCABBf-RKn1WErntFrSTI_vA\">here’s</a> a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:\r\n</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:15:40', '2019-10-14 07:15:40', '', 1936, 'http://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1938, 1, '2019-10-13 07:15:52', '2019-10-13 07:15:52', 'As we approach the next US presidential elections, the chorus against big corporate will only get louder. Hence, it is only logical that the largest corporate – Amazon becomes front and centre of this outrage. Plenty has been written about Amazon’s ‘Day One’ and ‘Flywheel’ approach to business which has made it a relentless growth machine (apparently Bezos did consider naming the company Relentless in 1995) and the public outcry against Amazon’s lack of empathy with employees and a bullying attitude towards the state. But in this New Yorker piece, Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer winning journalist and the author of the delightful <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Power-Habit-Why-What-Change/dp/1847946240\" rel=\"nofollow\">The Power of Habit</a>, gives a thoroughly researched and well balanced take on these two polarised views on the company. In true Duhigg style, the piece has plenty of anecdotes and details that can help build a clearer perspective.\r\n<em>“Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia, said, “Amazon is a microeconomist’s wet dream. If you’re a consumer, it’s perfect for maximizing the efficiency of finding what you want and getting it as cheap and fast as possible. But, the thing is, most of us aren’t just consumers. We’re also producers, or manufacturers, or employees, or we live in cities where retailers have gone out of business because they can’t compete with Amazon, and so Amazon kind of pits us against ourselves.”</em>\r\n<em>…More than a hundred thousand people work at Amazon’s fulfillment centers, and nearly everything they do is digitally tracked and evaluated, meaning that if someone falls behind—even for just a few minutes—it can be grounds for reprimand. Many employees carry handheld scanners that deliver a constant stream of instructions, such as a countdown clock detailing how many seconds remain until the next item must be plucked from a shelf. Workers can walk more than fifteen miles a day, and their breaks, including trips to the bathroom, are brief and closely measured. A company document explains, “Amazon’s system tracks the rates of each individual associate’s productivity and automatically generates any warnings or terminations regarding quality of productivity without input from supervisors.” A former warehouse employee told me that she knew of people who got fired largely “because they were too old, or their knees started acting up, or they just had a bad week.” She added, “Managers are always vague about what will get you fired, which creates this paranoia.” Employees, she said, sometimes ask questions about “what exactly will get them fired, and the responses are so vague that you basically know that if you’re not constantly moving, you’re probably gone.” Employees line up at vending machines that dispense free over-the-counter painkillers. For years, some Amazon warehouses lacked sufficient air-conditioning; this changed only after reports emerged, in 2011, of workers passing out and requiring emergency medical treatment for heat-related problems.</em>\r\n<em>…Many Amazon executives have become defensive about the fact that even centrist politicians like Joe Biden see the company as a symbol of capitalism gone awry. (On Twitter, Biden recently said of Amazon, “No company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters and teachers.”) Jeff Wilke, one of Bezos’s top lieutenants, told me that Amazon “tries to be a good corporate citizen,” and added, “We’ve built a for-profit enterprise that is improving the lives of customers and taking great care of employees. There’s a lot to be proud of.” The company, he said, has committed to spending seven hundred million dollars to train its workers in such subjects as coding and robotics.</em>\r\n<em>…One senior Amazon executive said of its warehouses, “It’s a hard economy for people without college degrees right now. We can’t run a philanthropy, but we’re trying to be the best of those bad kinds of jobs.” Another top executive suggested that Amazon was merely a cog in the American economic machine—and inevitably reflected how contemporary inequality had created winners and losers. “We’re doing what we can,” he said. “But ultimately this is a problem only the government can really solve—by changing how the economy works.”</em>\r\n<em>….Amazon has always been unabashed about being a cutthroat competitor. When the company started, in 1995, with fewer than a dozen employees, Bezos considered naming it Relentless. (The company still owns the URL for <a href=\"http://relentless.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://relentless.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjrAUYRaQgpFhUmkjh_W937T3GEw\">relentless.com</a>—it redirects you to Amazon.com.) Amazonians know that outsiders want them to change, but listening to outsiders is not one of the Leadership Principles. One executive told me, with barely suppressed resentment, “What has made us great for so long is suddenly being seen as something we ought to be ashamed of!”</em>\r\n<em>…Amazon is a process company. Last year, it collected a hundred and twenty-two billion dollars from online retail sales, and another forty-two billion by helping other firms sell and ship their own goods. The company collected twenty-six billion dollars from its Web-services division, which has little to do with selling things to consumers, and fourteen billion more from people who sign up for such subscription services as Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited. Amazon is estimated to have taken in hundreds of millions of dollars from selling the Echo. Seventeen billion came from sales at such brick-and-mortar stores as Whole Foods. And then there’s ten billion from ad sales and other activities too numerous to list in financial filings. No other tech company does as many unrelated things, on such a scale, as Amazon.</em>\r\n<em>…with the rise of Amazon, the give-and-take that has long undergirded the retail economy has become lopsided in a titan’s favor. “Capitalism is supposed to be a system of checks and balances,” he said. “It’s a marketplace where everyone haggles until we’re all basically satisfied, and it works because you can always threaten to walk away if you don’t get a fair deal. But when there’s only one marketplace, and it’s impossible to walk away, everything is out of balance. Amazon owns the marketplace. They can do whatever they want. That’s not capitalism. That’s piracy.”</em>', 'Is Amazon Unstoppable?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'is-amazon-unstoppable', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:45:12', '2019-11-01 12:45:12', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1938', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2032, 1, '2019-10-25 08:32:03', '2019-10-25 08:32:03', 'As we approach the next US presidential elections, the chorus against big corporate will only get louder. Hence, it is only logical that the largest corporate – Amazon becomes front and centre of this outrage. Plenty has been written about Amazon’s ‘Day One’ and ‘Flywheel’ approach to business which has made it a relentless growth machine (apparently Bezos did consider naming the company Relentless in 1995) and the public outcry against Amazon’s lack of empathy with employees and a bullying attitude towards the state. But in this New Yorker piece, Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer winning journalist and the author of the delightful <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Power-Habit-Why-What-Change/dp/1847946240\" rel=\"nofollow\">The Power of Habit</a>, gives a thoroughly researched and well balanced take on these two polarised views on the company. In true Duhigg style, the piece has plenty of anecdotes and details that can help build a clearer perspective.\r\n<em>“Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia, said, “Amazon is a microeconomist’s wet dream. If you’re a consumer, it’s perfect for maximizing the efficiency of finding what you want and getting it as cheap and fast as possible. But, the thing is, most of us aren’t just consumers. We’re also producers, or manufacturers, or employees, or we live in cities where retailers have gone out of business because they can’t compete with Amazon, and so Amazon kind of pits us against ourselves.”</em>\r\n<em>…More than a hundred thousand people work at Amazon’s fulfillment centers, and nearly everything they do is digitally tracked and evaluated, meaning that if someone falls behind—even for just a few minutes—it can be grounds for reprimand. Many employees carry handheld scanners that deliver a constant stream of instructions, such as a countdown clock detailing how many seconds remain until the next item must be plucked from a shelf. Workers can walk more than fifteen miles a day, and their breaks, including trips to the bathroom, are brief and closely measured. A company document explains, “Amazon’s system tracks the rates of each individual associate’s productivity and automatically generates any warnings or terminations regarding quality of productivity without input from supervisors.” A former warehouse employee told me that she knew of people who got fired largely “because they were too old, or their knees started acting up, or they just had a bad week.” She added, “Managers are always vague about what will get you fired, which creates this paranoia.” Employees, she said, sometimes ask questions about “what exactly will get them fired, and the responses are so vague that you basically know that if you’re not constantly moving, you’re probably gone.” Employees line up at vending machines that dispense free over-the-counter painkillers. For years, some Amazon warehouses lacked sufficient air-conditioning; this changed only after reports emerged, in 2011, of workers passing out and requiring emergency medical treatment for heat-related problems.</em>\r\n<em>…Many Amazon executives have become defensive about the fact that even centrist politicians like Joe Biden see the company as a symbol of capitalism gone awry. (On Twitter, Biden recently said of Amazon, “No company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters and teachers.”) Jeff Wilke, one of Bezos’s top lieutenants, told me that Amazon “tries to be a good corporate citizen,” and added, “We’ve built a for-profit enterprise that is improving the lives of customers and taking great care of employees. There’s a lot to be proud of.” The company, he said, has committed to spending seven hundred million dollars to train its workers in such subjects as coding and robotics.</em>\r\n<em>…One senior Amazon executive said of its warehouses, “It’s a hard economy for people without college degrees right now. We can’t run a philanthropy, but we’re trying to be the best of those bad kinds of jobs.” Another top executive suggested that Amazon was merely a cog in the American economic machine—and inevitably reflected how contemporary inequality had created winners and losers. “We’re doing what we can,” he said. “But ultimately this is a problem only the government can really solve—by changing how the economy works.”</em>\r\n<em>….Amazon has always been unabashed about being a cutthroat competitor. When the company started, in 1995, with fewer than a dozen employees, Bezos considered naming it Relentless. (The company still owns the URL for <a href=\"http://relentless.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://relentless.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjrAUYRaQgpFhUmkjh_W937T3GEw\">relentless.com</a>—it redirects you to Amazon.com.) Amazonians know that outsiders want them to change, but listening to outsiders is not one of the Leadership Principles. One executive told me, with barely suppressed resentment, “What has made us great for so long is suddenly being seen as something we ought to be ashamed of!”</em>\r\n<em>…Amazon is a process company. Last year, it collected a hundred and twenty-two billion dollars from online retail sales, and another forty-two billion by helping other firms sell and ship their own goods. The company collected twenty-six billion dollars from its Web-services division, which has little to do with selling things to consumers, and fourteen billion more from people who sign up for such subscription services as Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited. Amazon is estimated to have taken in hundreds of millions of dollars from selling the Echo. Seventeen billion came from sales at such brick-and-mortar stores as Whole Foods. And then there’s ten billion from ad sales and other activities too numerous to list in financial filings. No other tech company does as many unrelated things, on such a scale, as Amazon.</em>\r\n<em>…with the rise of Amazon, the give-and-take that has long undergirded the retail economy has become lopsided in a titan’s favor. “Capitalism is supposed to be a system of checks and balances,” he said. “It’s a marketplace where everyone haggles until we’re all basically satisfied, and it works because you can always threaten to walk away if you don’t get a fair deal. But when there’s only one marketplace, and it’s impossible to walk away, everything is out of balance. Amazon owns the marketplace. They can do whatever they want. That’s not capitalism. That’s piracy.”</em>', 'Is Amazon Unstoppable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1938-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:32:03', '2019-10-25 08:32:03', '', 1938, 'http://marcellus.in/1938-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1939, 1, '2019-10-14 07:16:52', '2019-10-14 07:16:52', 'As we approach the next US presidential elections, the chorus against big corporate will only get louder. Hence, it is only logical that the largest corporate – Amazon becomes front and centre of this outrage. Plenty has been written about Amazon’s ‘Day One’ and ‘Flywheel’ approach to business which has made it a relentless growth machine (apparently Bezos did consider naming the company Relentless in 1995) and the public outcry against Amazon’s lack of empathy with employees and a bullying attitude towards the state. But in this New Yorker piece, Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer winning journalist and the author of the delightful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=482420e539&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D482420e539%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0w2teu4U5X_W3PotqlVnQ6ZijDA\">‘The Power of Habit’</a>, gives a thoroughly researched and well balanced take on these two polarised views on the company. In true Duhigg style, the piece has plenty of anecdotes and details that can help build a clearer perspective.\r\n<em>“Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia, said, “Amazon is a microeconomist’s wet dream. If you’re a consumer, it’s perfect for maximizing the efficiency of finding what you want and getting it as cheap and fast as possible. But, the thing is, most of us aren’t just consumers. We’re also producers, or manufacturers, or employees, or we live in cities where retailers have gone out of business because they can’t compete with Amazon, and so Amazon kind of pits us against ourselves.”</em>\r\n<em>…More than a hundred thousand people work at Amazon’s fulfillment centers, and nearly everything they do is digitally tracked and evaluated, meaning that if someone falls behind—even for just a few minutes—it can be grounds for reprimand. Many employees carry handheld scanners that deliver a constant stream of instructions, such as a countdown clock detailing how many seconds remain until the next item must be plucked from a shelf. Workers can walk more than fifteen miles a day, and their breaks, including trips to the bathroom, are brief and closely measured. A company document explains, “Amazon’s system tracks the rates of each individual associate’s productivity and automatically generates any warnings or terminations regarding quality of productivity without input from supervisors.” A former warehouse employee told me that she knew of people who got fired largely “because they were too old, or their knees started acting up, or they just had a bad week.” She added, “Managers are always vague about what will get you fired, which creates this paranoia.” Employees, she said, sometimes ask questions about “what exactly will get them fired, and the responses are so vague that you basically know that if you’re not constantly moving, you’re probably gone.” Employees line up at vending machines that dispense free over-the-counter painkillers. For years, some Amazon warehouses lacked sufficient air-conditioning; this changed only after reports emerged, in 2011, of workers passing out and requiring emergency medical treatment for heat-related problems.</em>\r\n<em>…Many Amazon executives have become defensive about the fact that even centrist politicians like Joe Biden see the company as a symbol of capitalism gone awry. (On Twitter, Biden recently said of Amazon, “No company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters and teachers.”) Jeff Wilke, one of Bezos’s top lieutenants, told me that Amazon “tries to be a good corporate citizen,” and added, “We’ve built a for-profit enterprise that is improving the lives of customers and taking great care of employees. There’s a lot to be proud of.” The company, he said, has committed to spending seven hundred million dollars to train its workers in such subjects as coding and robotics.</em>\r\n<em>…One senior Amazon executive said of its warehouses, “It’s a hard economy for people without college degrees right now. We can’t run a philanthropy, but we’re trying to be the best of those bad kinds of jobs.” Another top executive suggested that Amazon was merely a cog in the American economic machine—and inevitably reflected how contemporary inequality had created winners and losers. “We’re doing what we can,” he said. “But ultimately this is a problem only the government can really solve—by changing how the economy works.”</em>\r\n<em>….Amazon has always been unabashed about being a cutthroat competitor. When the company started, in 1995, with fewer than a dozen employees, Bezos considered naming it Relentless. (The company still owns the URL for <a href=\"http://relentless.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://relentless.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjrAUYRaQgpFhUmkjh_W937T3GEw\">relentless.com</a>—it redirects you to Amazon.com.) Amazonians know that outsiders want them to change, but listening to outsiders is not one of the Leadership Principles. One executive told me, with barely suppressed resentment, “What has made us great for so long is suddenly being seen as something we ought to be ashamed of!”</em>\r\n<em>…Amazon is a process company. Last year, it collected a hundred and twenty-two billion dollars from online retail sales, and another forty-two billion by helping other firms sell and ship their own goods. The company collected twenty-six billion dollars from its Web-services division, which has little to do with selling things to consumers, and fourteen billion more from people who sign up for such subscription services as Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited. Amazon is estimated to have taken in hundreds of millions of dollars from selling the Echo. Seventeen billion came from sales at such brick-and-mortar stores as Whole Foods. And then there’s ten billion from ad sales and other activities too numerous to list in financial filings. No other tech company does as many unrelated things, on such a scale, as Amazon.</em>\r\n<em>…with the rise of Amazon, the give-and-take that has long undergirded the retail economy has become lopsided in a titan’s favor. “Capitalism is supposed to be a system of checks and balances,” he said. “It’s a marketplace where everyone haggles until we’re all basically satisfied, and it works because you can always threaten to walk away if you don’t get a fair deal. But when there’s only one marketplace, and it’s impossible to walk away, everything is out of balance. Amazon owns the marketplace. They can do whatever they want. That’s not capitalism. That’s piracy.”</em>', 'Is Amazon Unstoppable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1938-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:16:52', '2019-10-14 07:16:52', '', 1938, 'http://marcellus.in/1938-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1940, 1, '2019-10-13 07:16:59', '2019-10-13 07:16:59', 'WeWork’s failed IPO has led to several notable commentators in America highlighting the folly of private markets and pointing to the broader house of cards constructed by venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. The most famous of these pieces has come from veteran commentator, Jason Zweig (see <a href=\"https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/</a>> ). The responses to Zweig’s piece are actually very interesting and vary from people saying that nobody apart from Softbank is crazy enough to buy the overvalued assets in which Softbank has invested in to people saying that Zweig is making too much of a single data point (i.e. WeWork). This piece from Seeking Alpha takes Zweig’s piece and makes an equally valid point about public markets.\r\nThe point is this: more money in the US stockmarket is managed by passive funds than active funds. The author, Jesse Felder, says that in the month ending August 2019, for the first time funds that track broad US indices hit US$4.3 trillion (that’s almost twice India’s GDP!). Given this glut of money flooding into index trackers, Felder says that we need to view the valuation of listed equities with a degree of scepticism: <em>“With the shift in perception towards these private market behemoths, epitomized by the WeCompany fiasco, it\'s inevitable we will see a very similar shift in the public market. Investors will soon come to realize once again that equities, private or public, are not the easy path to riches they have seemed to be over the past decade; they are worth nothing more than the discounted value of their future cash flows (and not discounted at today\'s \"risk-free\" rates but at a more historically appropriate rate). And that true value is far lower than current prices.”</em>', 'The True Cost Of Ignoring True Cost', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-true-cost-of-ignoring-true-cost', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:43:53', '2019-11-01 12:43:53', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1940', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2033, 1, '2019-10-25 08:34:47', '2019-10-25 08:34:47', 'WeWork’s failed IPO has led to several notable commentators in America highlighting the folly of private markets and pointing to the broader house of cards constructed by venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. The most famous of these pieces has come from veteran commentator, Jason Zweig (see <a href=\"https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/</a>> ). The responses to Zweig’s piece are actually very interesting and vary from people saying that nobody apart from Softbank is crazy enough to buy the overvalued assets in which Softbank has invested in to people saying that Zweig is making too much of a single data point (i.e. WeWork). This piece from Seeking Alpha takes Zweig’s piece and makes an equally valid point about public markets.\r\nThe point is this: more money in the US stockmarket is managed by passive funds than active funds. The author, Jesse Felder, says that in the month ending August 2019, for the first time funds that track broad US indices hit US$4.3 trillion (that’s almost twice India’s GDP!). Given this glut of money flooding into index trackers, Felder says that we need to view the valuation of listed equities with a degree of scepticism: <em>“With the shift in perception towards these private market behemoths, epitomized by the WeCompany fiasco, it\'s inevitable we will see a very similar shift in the public market. Investors will soon come to realize once again that equities, private or public, are not the easy path to riches they have seemed to be over the past decade; they are worth nothing more than the discounted value of their future cash flows (and not discounted at today\'s \"risk-free\" rates but at a more historically appropriate rate). And that true value is far lower than current prices.”</em>', 'The True Cost Of Ignoring True Cost', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1940-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:34:47', '2019-10-25 08:34:47', '', 1940, 'http://marcellus.in/1940-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1941, 1, '2019-10-14 07:17:41', '2019-10-14 07:17:41', 'WeWork’s failed IPO has led to several notable commentators in America highlighting the folly of private markets and pointing to the broader house of cards constructed by venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. The most famous of these pieces has come from veteran commentator, Jason Zweig (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4e8f61107&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De4e8f61107%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELjY3Rp3M1-8IkQp4cAwpXjqEPbg\">https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-<wbr />should-bust-an-investing-myth/</a> ). The responses to Zweig’s piece are actually very interesting and vary from people saying that nobody apart from Softbank is crazy enough to buy the overvalued assets in which Softbank has invested in to people saying that Zweig is making too much of a single data point (i.e. WeWork). This piece from Seeking Alpha takes Zweig’s piece and makes an equally valid point about public markets.\r\nThe point is this: more money in the US stockmarket is managed by passive funds than active funds. The author, Jesse Felder, says that in the month ending August 2019, for the first time funds that track broad US indices hit US$4.3 trillion (that’s almost twice India’s GDP!). Given this glut of money flooding into index trackers, Felder says that we need to view the valuation of listed equities with a degree of scepticism: <em>“With the shift in perception towards these private market behemoths, epitomized by the WeCompany fiasco, it\'s inevitable we will see a very similar shift in the public market. Investors will soon come to realize once again that equities, private or public, are not the easy path to riches they have seemed to be over the past decade; they are worth nothing more than the discounted value of their future cash flows (and not discounted at today\'s \"risk-free\" rates but at a more historically appropriate rate). And that true value is far lower than current prices.”</em>', 'The True Cost Of Ignoring True Cost', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1940-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:17:41', '2019-10-14 07:17:41', '', 1940, 'http://marcellus.in/1940-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1982, 1, '2019-10-23 05:06:00', '2019-10-23 05:06:00', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 18 April, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The rapidly growing sharing economy, and the availability of easy credit for pursuing ‘dreams’ and ‘desires’, together are shaping the attitude of young Indians towards buying assets. The impact is most visible in the waning demand for assets that demand long-term financial commitments and where options exist to delink usage from ownership. We are already seeing the changed attitudes impacting car buying and home buying. As these changes disrupt the housing property market, businesses will need to adapt their models accordingly. In parallel, exciting new business models will emerge.</strong>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">If there is an award for the Business Buzzword of the last decade, ‘Disruption’ would surely be a frontrunner for the prize. A lot has been written about how several different businesses, from city transport to credit cards and from enterprise IT to insurance, have either been already disrupted or are facing severe threats from new business models, especially technology-enabled ones. These industries are seeing what we can call the ‘first-degree’ impact of disruption. Shopping online is a direct threat to the traditional retail model as is use of payment wallets to credit cards. The interplay of the first-degree effects in different industries over time is likely to drive derivative effects in completely unrelated businesses. One such business is likely to be residential real estate.\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">There are changes we are seeing in two disparate industries, the outcomes of which will shape how future generations will think of buying property.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">First is the evolution of fintech models, that are rapidly changing how and, more pertinently, who consumes credit. Using data as obvious as your borrowing history, to data from your browsing and search history and phone contacts list, new age lenders are making credit available to a much wider set of people and for a much wider purpose than banks traditionally have. Today you can borrow money for a destination wedding, with the lender exhorting you to not let money be a constraint in getting the finest venue, outfits and caterers! And you can follow that up with a loan for the honeymoon as well. My favourite <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Companies/OTEdrhCiBcJpLM3oSXYyEI/Ordering-food-online-Heres-how-you-can-pay-for-it-later.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">is LazyPay</a>>, which can give you a 2-week interest-free credit when you order food (among other things) online. Elders in my family would pity my mother if they hear that I am borrowing money for dinner!\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">While today the <a href=\"https://scroll.in/magazine/891189/for-indian-millennials-travel-is-a-way-of-life-and-theyre-even-taking-loans-to-fund-it\" rel=\"nofollow\"> biggest users of such loans are the millennials </a>i.e. those who achieved adulthood at the turn of the millennium, as these products become more widespread, adoption amongst the post millennials (Generation Z; those born in and after the 1990s) will only rise with time. A typical post millennial starting out on a career was born post 1991, in an India with no artificial supply constraints, and hence has not known deferment of gratification that the older generations grew up with. If the Gen Z can fulfil a desire and there is someone ready to help them with the funding, they are more than willing to consider it. Talk to a 25-year old and you can hear stories of how some of his/her friends are regulars at the Sunburn music festival in Goa, or have been to Singapore for the F1 weekend, and have aspirations to travel to Germany for Oktoberfest.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Simultaneously, the other disruption that is shaping consumer behaviour is the sharing economy. We are already seeing privately owned cars being <a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/auto/auto-news/how-car-ownership-is-changing-rapidly-and-irreversibly-in-india/articleshow/66296079.cms\" rel=\"nofollow\"> replaced by Ola or Uber for daily commutes </a>. Car ownership has been seeing a significant downgrade in priority in the millennials’ consumption bucket list. Why buy a car and get in to a long-term commitment for EMIs, insurance, maintenance etc. when a chauffeur-driven vehicle is available anytime and anywhere.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Fast forward a decade and we will have a whole generation of people who’ve come to realise they don’t need to own an asset to use or enjoy it. And even if they were to think of buying an asset, is there room for another monthly instalment in their budgets, after having spent on an exotic vacation and for the latest iPhone? Buying a large ticket asset such as real estate then seems to be an impossible task, especially in the metro cities where property prices are unaffordable for most white-collar workers even today. A generation conditioned by the conveniences of a sharing economy, and the ubiquity of cheap credit that spurs consumption, will have a detached attitude towards home buying, a purchase/investment which once upon a time was seen as a milestone for Indian families. Millennials and Generation Z will see lesser merit in buying a home and greater sense in renting one, especially given the huge differential (4-5x) between rents and an EMI for a loan on the same house. They would rather spend the difference on consumer durables or holidays or even <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/Money/Y4F0nBaOnZbcPqiqFuO1sI/Why-millennials-dont-like-real-estate.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> invest </a> it. Other demographic changes, such as higher mobility (for jobs across cities) and late marriages will also increasingly shape the demand for residential property – owned or rented. Some of these trends, in varying degrees, have been seen in the US and<a href=\"https://www.scmp.com/tech/e-commerce/article/2165861/chinese-millennials-buy-now-pay-later-mentality-fuels-thriving-micro\" rel=\"nofollow\"> China </a>too,\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">That does not imply that the younger generations will forever stay in rented homes. Just that they will feel no pressing need to make that a priority i.e. they will postpone their home buying. And it doesn’t take long for such behavioural changes to impact share prices - we are seeing the effect that just 6 years of Uber’s operations in India have had on demand for cars in India.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This is the second degree or derivative disruption that will be felt in the residential housing industry and will require adapting the current entrenched business models to changing buying behaviour. If more people are likely to rent homes in the future, residential real estate will acquire hues of commercial property development, where developers are also landlords. However, given the poor yield in residential real estate (3% at best), developers currently have no incentive to own property. Therefore, for reviving and sustaining interest in residential housing as an attractive investment, either yields must increase materially, or home prices need to correct massively – both of which will be hugely disruptive.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">More people renting homes will also impact businesses such as real estate classifieds (and websites that offer such services), movers and packers, furniture rentals among others. Owners/managers of these businesses will see a third-degree impact and will have to think of the extent of disruption that will hit them and how resilient their business model is to such changes. At the same time, <a href=\"https://www.livemint.com/companies/start-ups/end-to-the-house-hunt-india-s-rental-disruptors-1549907714969.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> new business models </a> will make deeper inroads. Either way, the next decade is set to be exciting for the housing property market in India.\n\n<em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=14fac21eeb&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Three Degrees of Disruption in Home Buying in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '728-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 05:06:00', '2019-10-23 05:06:00', '', 728, 'http://marcellus.in/728-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1943, 1, '2019-10-13 07:17:49', '2019-10-13 07:17:49', 'Behaviours of entire generations such as that of the baby boomers and the millienials and their influence on the economy has been a matter of interest for policy makers. But now, it seems like policy makers are delving deeper on this subject. Christopher Severen at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has analysed the behaviour of people born in 1964 when it comes to car ownership and usage, which is distinctly different (averse) from the generation preceeding or following them. Severen attributes this aversion to the oil price spike in 1979, a time when these people would be coming of age and learning to drive.\r\n<em>The economists analyzed millions of government survey responses from the 1960s through the 2010s and found it wasn’t just the Iran oil crisis. Gas prices left scars whenever and wherever they spiked throughout that period.</em>\r\n<em>If inflation-adjusted gas prices doubled while someone was learning to drive, they found, that person would be less likely to drive to work later on, and would drive an average of 900 to 1,100 fewer miles each year as adults. They are also less likely to own gas-guzzling light trucks and more likely to take public transit.</em>\r\n<em>“We find that pretty surprising,” Severen said. “In the U.S. most people drive to work and not much has budged that over the past few decades.”</em>\r\n<em>Drivers are only vulnerable to this level of scarring during that narrow slice of their teenage years when they’re just learning to drive. When prices jump, scars don’t appear in folks who were younger than 15 or older than 18. In some analyses, the researchers shifted the window to fit each state’s driving-age requirements.</em>\r\n<em>“You develop a particular taste for driving from this formative window of when you’re roughly 15 to 18, and that’s influenced by gas-price volatility during that period,\" Severen said. \"People who experience these large shocks have a lower taste for driving.”</em>', 'An economic crisis in your teens can alter your behaviour for life, economists find', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'an-economic-crisis-in-your-teens-can-alter-your-behaviour-for-life-economists-find', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:36:24', '2019-10-25 08:36:24', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1943', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1944, 1, '2019-10-14 07:18:35', '2019-10-14 07:18:35', 'Behaviours of entire generations such as that of the baby boomers and the millienials and their influence on the economy has been a matter of interest for policy makers. But now, it seems like policy makers are delving deeper on this subject. Christopher Severen at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has analysed the behaviour of people born in 1964 when it comes to car ownership and usage, which is distinctly different (averse) from the generation preceeding or following them. Severen attributes this aversion to the oil price spike in 1979, a time when these people would be coming of age and learning to drive.\r\n<em>The economists analyzed millions of government survey responses from the 1960s through the 2010s and found it wasn’t just the Iran oil crisis. Gas prices left scars whenever and wherever they spiked throughout that period.</em>\r\n<em>If inflation-adjusted gas prices doubled while someone was learning to drive, they found, that person would be less likely to drive to work later on, and would drive an average of 900 to 1,100 fewer miles each year as adults. They are also less likely to own gas-guzzling light trucks and more likely to take public transit.</em>\r\n<em>“We find that pretty surprising,” Severen said. “In the U.S. most people drive to work and not much has budged that over the past few decades.”</em>\r\n<em>Drivers are only vulnerable to this level of scarring during that narrow slice of their teenage years when they’re just learning to drive. When prices jump, scars don’t appear in folks who were younger than 15 or older than 18. In some analyses, the researchers shifted the window to fit each state’s driving-age requirements.</em>\r\n<em>“You develop a particular taste for driving from this formative window of when you’re roughly 15 to 18, and that’s influenced by gas-price volatility during that period,\" Severen said. \"People who experience these large shocks have a lower taste for driving.”</em>', 'An economic crisis in your teens can alter your behaviour for life, economists find', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1943-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:18:35', '2019-10-14 07:18:35', '', 1943, 'http://marcellus.in/1943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1945, 1, '2019-10-13 07:18:40', '2019-10-13 07:18:40', 'One would assume that an article on urban development in Bangalore would talk about the ridiculous traffic congestion in the city. But Aditi and Anish, students of urban development will hopefully tackle that on a different day. In this article, they trace the city’s emergence as a IT hub to economic policies set in as far back as 1911 by Sir M Visweswaraiah the then Diwan (Prime Minister) of the Princely state of Mysore. Sir MV in a landmark Mysore Economic Conference in 1911 laid out the industrialisation plan for the kingdom. The infrastructure build out then eventually upon gaining independence made Bangalore the preferred destination for the Govt of India’s strategic industries (such as HAL, ITI, BEL, etc) alongside research and educational institutes (IISc, DRDO, ISRO). The largely knowledge worker population that settled in the city on the back of these organisations made Bangalore the choice of destination for the tech industry post liberalisation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'How Bangalore’s IT sector flowered from a princely state Diwan’s industrial dream in 1911', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-bangalores-it-sector-flowered-from-a-princely-state-diwans-industrial-dream-in-1911', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:42:38', '2019-11-01 12:42:38', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=1945', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(1946, 1, '2019-10-14 07:19:21', '2019-10-14 07:19:21', 'One would assume that an article on urban development in Bangalore would talk about the ridiculous traffic congestion in the city. But Aditi and Anish, students of urban development will hopefully tackle that on a different day. In this article, they trace the city’s emergence as a IT hub to economic policies set in as far back as 1911 by Sir M Visweswaraiah the then Diwan (Prime Minister) of the Princely state of Mysore. Sir MV in a landmark Mysore Economic Conference in 1911 laid out the industrialisation plan for the kingdom. The infrastructure build out then eventually upon gaining independence made Bangalore the preferred destination for the Govt of India’s strategic industries (such as HAL, ITI, BEL, etc) alongside research and educational institutes (IISc, DRDO, ISRO). The largely knowledge worker population that settled in the city on the back of these organisations made Bangalore the choice of destination for the tech industry post liberalisation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'How Bangalore’s IT sector flowered from a princely state Diwan’s industrial dream in 1911', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1945-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-14 07:19:21', '2019-10-14 07:19:21', '', 1945, 'http://marcellus.in/1945-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1965, 1, '2019-10-18 10:43:22', '2019-10-18 10:43:22', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the final two years of his 8 year stint in Ambit Capital, Pramod was Managing Director &amp; Head of Institutional Equities (from 2016 to 2018). Prior to that Pramod, served as the head of Ambit’s Singapore office from 2013-2016. Before joining Ambit, Pramod worked across sales and research functions at Clear Capital, a British equity research firm. Pramod is Head of Sales in<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\"> Marcellus</a> and manages the sales &amp; marketing efforts of the firm. He also sits on Investment Committee that discusses and approves investment strategies of the firm.</p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besides being a technology analyst, Pramod has served in technology firms such as HCL Technologies and Philips Semiconductors’ Indian arm in Business Development and Engineering respectively.</p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Qualifications : </strong>Pramod is CFA charter holder with a B.Tech from Regional Engineering College, Surathkal and a Post-graduate Diploma in Management from the Indian Institute of Management – Ahmedabad.</p>', 'Pramod Gubbi, CFA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '50-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-18 10:43:22', '2019-10-18 10:43:22', '', 50, 'http://marcellus.in/50-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1968, 1, '2019-10-18 11:17:30', '2019-10-18 11:17:30', 'There are no jobs currently.Kindly check later.', 'Jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '68-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-18 11:17:30', '2019-10-18 11:17:30', '', 68, 'http://marcellus.in/68-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(1970, 1, '2019-10-30 09:52:51', '2019-10-30 09:52:51', '<em>Published on: 17 September, 2019</em>\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockOuter\">\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\"><strong>Most of the drivers of the current slowdown appear to be transient and related to channel financing/GST credit issues. Understanding why the economy has slowed down at various levels (i.e. consumer, dealer, distributor, manufacturer) is central to investing sensibly in this time of flux. <em>Whilst heavy repo rate cuts are needed, the notion that structural reform is needed to resuscitate the economy is damagingly misguided.</em></strong></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlockOuter\">\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImageContent\" valign=\"top\"><img class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnImage CToWUd a6T aligncenter\" tabindex=\"0\" src=\"https://ci5.googleusercontent.com/proxy/qTzCjxPUKV0B2Ncc0og5IKc-IONv9l1INLgmsmdTw5FBLHTnunSxvopQ_mxP0UpQhBCWeeshQNQ-EByKbO3eLS8Kc9e8zn0kZqEzUEHHjQHLzH1YfvR1dbLCU_1KyEvJMxEqE3tLYPppoRpf2c4B6kBcOkhOyvFocV0=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407/images/2daa315b-d679-4230-a95c-4a1dd048fdaf.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"482\" height=\"289\" align=\"center\" /></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlock\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockOuter\">\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextBlockInner\" valign=\"top\">\n<table class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"m_-3048095342162278131mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">\n<div><strong>The reset is now well understood…</strong>\nMost people now understand that India is gradually transitioning from:</div>\n<div> <strong>(a)</strong> a country where it was easy to transact in cash to a country where it has become hard – albeit not impossible – to transact in cash;</div>\n<div><strong>(b) </strong>a country where SMEs routinely used to evade taxes to a country where such routine tax evasion has become much harder;</div>\n<div>and <strong>(c)</strong> from a country where the scope of operation for 90%+ companies was local/regional to a country where a far higher proportion of companies is operating on a nationwide scale courtesy much improved transport &amp; communication networks &amp; due to an integrated nationwide framework for indirect taxes (GST).Plenty has been written on these subjects. For instance on 13<sup>th</sup> August 2018, we said in our note to clients, <em>“Small/informal businesses flourish in an underdeveloped economy where due to the lack of availability of electricity, good roads, reliable communication networks and affordable credit, businesses can operate only a small scale and that too within the confines of their immediate locality….India seems to be going through period comparable to what America went through in the 50 years post the Civil War. Over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.9 million km to 5.6 million km (implied CAGR of 4.2%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 234 million to 1.2 billion (CAGR of 20%)…These factors have made it easier for smaller companies to build pan-India franchises….It goes without saying that not every small firm will be able to build a national niche. The winners will be those who have: (a) the work ethic to build a pan-India brand and national distributor-dealer networks; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally &amp; patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages....”</em><strong>…but the economic slowdown is misunderstood</strong>\nAnd yet, although everyone understands that we are in the throes of change, most people – investors &amp; companies alike – find it hard to understand how this change will play out. Who will be the winners &amp; losers? How long will the transition to the new world take? How painful will the transition be? In this note, we offer our few paisa worth of wisdom regarding these questions.The economic slowdown that is impacting India can be broken down into its constituent components:</div>\n<div>\n\n<strong>Challenge 1: The capex conk-off a decade ago </strong>– The Indian economy’s slowdown started within three years of 2008 Great Financial Crisis. Ever since 2012, India’s earnings growth started decelerating arguably because the era of crony capitalism (during which promoters got easy money from Indian banks and/or global financial markets) ended with the unveiling of the 2G spectrum scam in 2010. As capex growth gradually decelerated, earnings growth for the Nifty started sliding – see chart above created using data from Bloomberg.The impact on growth of this capex conk-off was buffered by households’ savings rate falling from around 25% of GDP ten years ago to around 17% now. Basically, as corporates lost the appetite to borrow, lenders focused their efforts on convincing consumers to borrow for homes, cars and washing machines. Obviously, such a savings conk-off could not continue indefinitely. Hence as the household savings rate bottoms out, and by implication consumption (as a % of GDP) tops out, the economy feels the full impact of a conked off capex engine. Let’s label this conk-off in demand as<strong><u> S%</u></strong> CAGR.\n\n<strong>Challenge 2: Three shocks in three years (2016-2018)</strong> – The impact of three big shocks in three successive years – the latest shock being the NBFC meltdown - has impacted demand further (over and above the demand conk off identified in Challenge 1). This impact is multi-faceted and deserves to be disaggregated carefully:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>The end consumer:</strong> At a psychological level, the endless talk of jobless growth, NPAs, corporate fraud, etc seems to have had some impact on consumers’ willingness to spend. We can see this in our social circles wherein affluent people are throttling off on discretionary spend on holidays, marriage related spend, cars, etc. Furthermore, given the nature of the Indian economy, many consumers are dealers, distributor or manufacturers of something or the other (see the impacts discussed in the following bullets). Hence it is but natural that they have throttled off on spending as they see their businesses hit by the slowdown. Let’s label this conk-off in demand as<strong><u> J%</u></strong> CAGR.</li>\n 	<li><strong>The dealer: </strong>This guy is your typical local shopkeeper. All his life he has hidden most of his profits from the taxman (i.e. his profits are black money). Now, in the post-GST world, he is reluctant to show all his revenues in white as that will invite scrutiny from the taxman of the prior years. His next challenge is working capital financing of his inventory - all these years his inventory was financed through black money. Now he needs white money channel financing but no lender will provide the same as the dealer’s white money profits have historically been negligible. As a result, we have heard from several companies that the dealer does not have money to finance his purchase of inventory. The dealer’s predicament has a multiplier impact on demand because he’s part of the pipe through which goods reach the consumer (and the triple shocks of the last 3 years has basically squeezed the pipe). Let’s call this multiplier <strong><u>K</u></strong> where K is a number greater than 1. The cumulative impact therefore becomes <strong>(S%+J%)xK</strong> where K amplifies the demand conk-off.</li>\n 	<li><strong>The distributor</strong>: The impact of GST on the distributors’ margins do NOT appear to be anything as serious as the impact on the dealers’ margins. The distributors’ problem appears to be the late payment of GST credit which has resulted in distributors’ operating cashflow being crunched. That in turn has meant that the distributor is ordering less from the manufacturer. Think of this as another multiplicative factor, <strong><u>M </u></strong>(where M&gt;1), which squeezes the pipe through which goods reach the consumer. The cumulative impact therefore becomes <strong>(S%+J%)xKxM</strong> where K &amp; M amplify the demand conk-off.</li>\n 	<li><strong>The manufacturer: </strong>Like the distributor, the manufacturers’ operating cashflows too are impacted by the withholding of GST credit. In addition, the NBFC conk-off hits the ability of the SME manufacturers to borrow to finance their working capital needs. More obviously, as demand conks-off, operating leverage works in reverse to crunch profits even more than the fall in demand. Let’s call operative leverage P where P is a multiplicative factor (and P&gt;1). Hence the conk-off in manufacturers’ profits is <strong>(S%+J%)xKxMxP</strong> where K, M and P are factors amplifying the demand slowdown.</li>\n</ol>\n<strong>What is transient and what is structural?</strong>\n\n<strong>Clearly Challenge 1 is NOT transient.</strong> Barring 1994-97 and 2004-10, India has not seen a capex boom ever. Hence it is unlikely that the capex cycle will turn around in a pronounced manner (i.e. 2004-10 style) anytime soon. Furthermore, thanks to the Insolvency &amp; Bankruptcy Code, the crony capitalists who financed India’s capex historically can no longer default on their loans in the manner in which they are historically accustomed to. Therefore, it seems likely to be while before we see a proper capex boom in India.\n\nHowever,most of the issues pertaining to Challenge 2 appear to us to be transient provided the Government (or the global economy) does not deliver yet another adverse shock. Three weeks ago the Finance Minister promised to address the GST credit issue which is bedevilling the entire distribution chain. Secondly, we are aware that several lenders are working on providing channel financing constructs which address the needs of dealers. Thirdly, the falling prices of steel, rubber, land and capital mean that prices should come off for most products thereby allowing the economy to adjust to a lower level of demand. This is how free market economies adjust to demand shocks. This is how the Indian economy is likely adjust.\n\nOverall therefore whilst the S% conk-off appears unlikely to go away, K, M, P &amp; J% look likely to be gradually addressed over the coming year. Hence we do NOT buy the argument that something fundamental is broken in the Indian economy and structural reforms are the need of the hour. In fact, we would argue rapid structural reform has resulted in many of the issues highlighted above! To ask for more structural reform at present is therefore misguided. That being said, a logical response to the reduced demand highlighted above would be for the RBI to highlight a glide path towards significantly lower interest rates over the next 12 months. We reckon as much as 200bps of repo rate cuts over the next two years could be warranted given the severity of the two challenges outlined in the note.\n\n<strong>Investment implications: how can we make money in this slowdown?</strong>\n<ol>\n 	<li>Companies for whom the <strong>distribution channel is non-existent</strong> will be less impacted by the slowdown. One can see this clearly in the way the slowdown has not impacted Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Trent and Westlife (McDonald’s). Similarly, Amazon, Flipkart and DMart are NOT experiencing any slowdown. See <a href=\"https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/amazon-and-flipkart-on-the-same-page-say-no-economic-slowdown-in-india-119091601535_1.html</a></li>\n 	<li>Companies which sell <strong>essential products </strong>(eg. baby milk powder (Nestle), blood tests (Dr Lals), adhesives (Pidilite)) will be less impacted by the slowdown as households throttle off on discretionary consumption. Basically, for them S% and J% will be much lower for companies selling essential products (than it is for companies selling discretionary items). If such companies have managed their channel properly, then K, M &amp; P would also be lower for them.</li>\n 	<li>Companies which <strong>finance SMEs’ working capital needs</strong> will be severely impacted by the slowdown. Such lenders are feeling the amplifying impact of K, M and P. Many of these lenders seem likely to go out of business before Challenge 2 subsides. At the same time a massive brand new opportunity – channel financing for dealers, distributors, manufacturers operating in the white economy – will open up for smart, well capitalised lenders. We reckon Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance can capitalize on this opportunity.</li>\n 	<li>Companies which are able to <strong>pull market share from their competitors</strong> will be less impacted by the slowdown. Basically, these firms will use market share gains to negate the impact of S% and J%. Structurally, the biggest winners across sectors are companies who are able to understand the drivers of the changes highlighted above and move adroitly to consolidate market share in their sectors. We have tried our best to pack our clients’ <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/products/\">portfolios with such stocks</a>. Earnings of the companies in our portfolio grew 17% in Q1 FY20. However, given the complexity of the changes outlined above we cannot afford to let our guard down in this time of flux. You can see here how our CCP portfolio is doing: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress/\">http://marcellus.in/newsletter/why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress/</a></li>\n</ol>\n</div>\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blog/\">http://marcellus.in/blog/</a>\n<em><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'Marcellus: Dissecting the Economic Slowdown in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1679-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 09:52:51', '2019-10-30 09:52:51', '', 1679, 'http://marcellus.in/1679-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1975, 1, '2019-11-01 06:17:14', '2019-11-01 06:17:14', '<em>Published on:14 August, 2019</em>\n<strong>Asking tough questions which shed new light on the opportunities and challenges facing companies is a non-trivial task. Asking difficult questions involves not just preparation but also an understanding of Q&amp;A techniques and a willingness to shed the deference that analysts naturally have of CEOs.</strong><strong>\n</strong>\n<em>“Getting the right question is the key to getting the right answer.” </em>–<strong> Jeff Bezos</strong>\n\n<em>“When you’re a student, you’re judged by how well you answer questions. Somebody else asks the questions, and if you give good answers, you’ll get a good grade. But in life, you’re judged by how good your questions are.” – </em><strong>Robert Langer, MIT professor </strong>\n\n<strong>Questions, curiosity and creativity</strong>\n“Question everything” said Albert Einstein. The link between curiosity, creativity and questioning is intuitive as at the root of all three behaviours is a yearning for exploring, for probing, for understanding better and/or knowing more than what others do. We have written before creativity and how it has its roots in non-conformist and sceptical/questioning mindset – see<a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/\">/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/</a>\nWe have also written about the questions that investors need to ask their fund managers – see <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-most-important-questions-to-ask-your-fund-manager/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-most-important-questions-to-ask-your-fund-manager/</a>\n\nNow we turn our attention to the questions investors like us should ask of the companies which we invest in. These questions are not necessarily meant to be posed just to the CEO of the investee company; indeed smart CEOs will be evasive about answering these sorts of questions. Instead they can also be posed to ex-employees of the company, competitors of the company or distributors or suppliers of the company. The questions are also meant to be answered by the investment analyst herself as she examines the Annual Reports of the company over the past decade.\n\n<strong>So how can we ask better/more probing questions?</strong>\n<strong>Look for questions rather than answers:</strong> When you start analysing a company, the instinctive thing to do is to try look for answers. In fact, from the outset our brain is asking us “How good is this company?”. It takes a conscious effort to switch off this mindset and instead look for questions - rather than answers -  which will help us understand the company better. So, for instance, if we can see that a company has generated superior operating margins and ROCEs for over 10 years, the instinctive question will be regarding the competitive advantages which allowed the company to deliver these great results. The more useful question for the company’s CEO would <em>“Tell me about the evolution of your firm over the past decade. To what extent were the success factors external rather than internal to the firm?”</em> With a question like this, you are keeping your mind open to the possibility that the drivers of the company’s success over the past decade might be exogenous to the firm.\n\n<strong>Focus on qualitative issues rather than quantitative:</strong> Even ordinary CEOs are good enough to deal with most quantitative questions that investors throw at them eg. How will you improve your ROCE? What CEOs are less prepared to handle are questions on the softer aspects of what makes a company successful. Eg. <em>Who are your two most important direct reports and how did you select them?</em> Another eg. <em>Take us through your capital allocation process.</em>\n\n<strong>Ask open ended rather than closed ended questions:</strong> As Donald Rumsfeld famously noted, we live in a world with unknown unknowns i.e. there are lots of things you don’t know that you don’t know. That’s why open ended questions (eg. <em>What are your recruitment techniques?</em>) are more useful than closed ended questions (eg. Are you satisfied with your recruitment techniques?) because the former leaves the door open for “unknown unknowns” to emerge. Another example of an open ended question would be <em>“Why do you think growth has slowed down?”</em> whereas a closed ended question would “Has revenue growth fallen below your expectations?” [Note: closed ended questions are defined as those which can be answered with a yes/no.]\n\n<strong>As short questions rather than long questions:</strong> When confronted by successful senior executives such as the CEO of a listed company, most analysts want to avoid getting on the wrong side the executive. This results in the analyst asking wordy questions which are heavily caveated and often closed ended eg. Given that we have had an unusually heavy monsoons, will your second quarter profits be impacted? Short open-ended questions are usually more effective eg. <em>How is business?</em>\n\n<strong>Ask follow-up/funnel questions to clarify and/or to probe further: </strong>If you ask open-ended questions, you tend to get answers which are broad ranging. It makes sense at that juncture to push the CEO towards specifics. So, for example, in response to your question “How is business?”, the CEO answers “We are suffering due to the economic slowdown”, you follow-up questions could be: <em>“How are you measuring the impact of the slowdown? Is there an indicator that can do this for us?”</em> It’s useful to keep a few follow-up questions in your back pocket. Even if you’re looking for a factual response, digging a little deeper can lead to more insightful answer.\n\n<strong>Use negative framing to your advantage: </strong>In a hierarchical society, most CEOs are used to being told what they want to hear. Hence if you learn to negatively frame most situations, you are more likely to take the CEO outside his zone of comfort. A CEO’s irritation at negatively framed questions can be very revealing. Eg. <em>What can we learn from the sharp slowdown in revenue growth over the past years?</em> Another eg. <em>Given the slowing economy, what red flags are you watching out for in your company’s financial performance?</em> In this context, you might want to read our blog on how to spot CEOs who lie: <a href=\"/blogs/spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/spotting-the-liar-in-the-boardroom/</a>\n\n<strong>Take notes and refer back to them: </strong>If you are meeting companies every week, you need to keep track of what the CEO said in July 2018 so that you when you meet her again in January 2019, you can refer back to what she said seven months ago. Furthermore, it is also useful to set up a system where suppose I met the CEO in July 2018 but in January 2019 it is my colleague Rakshit who meets the same lady, Rakshit should be able to readily access all of my notes on the company. Otherwise we have no way of assessing whether the CEO delivers on what she promises. Software which makes it easy for your firm to record and retrieve notes are therefore a useful investment.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nInvestment teams who answer the toughest questions (of themselves, of the data at hand, of the company and of their primary data sources) usually deliver superior investment insights. In contrast, investment teams who use standard business school frameworks to analyse companies deliver conventional investment insights. To ask probing questions takes not just preparation but also the willingness to confront the hierarchical mindset which pervades corporate life in many parts of the world. Here are a couple of examples of smart interviewers probing powerful interviewees:\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx92bUw7WX8\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xx92bUw7WX8</a>: Henry Blodget probes Jeff Bezos for 40 minutes. Blodget is polite and unrelenting in his probing. Bezos is thoughtful and candid in his responses.\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHYiOfBRng\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFHYiOfBRng</a>: British journalist David Frost’s 1975 interviews of Richard Nixon (who by this time had stepped down from being the US President due to the Watergate scandal) are the stuff of legend. Not only does Nixon break down under tough questioning from Frost (who had prepared meticulously for this interview), the interviews form the basis of an award winning movie made in 2008.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Asking Difficult Questions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1592-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 06:17:14', '2019-11-01 06:17:14', '', 1592, 'http://marcellus.in/1592-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1972, 1, '2019-10-22 05:40:57', '2019-10-22 05:40:57', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-22 05:40:57', '2019-10-22 05:40:57', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1973, 1, '2019-10-22 05:41:31', '2019-10-22 05:41:31', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-22 05:41:31', '2019-10-22 05:41:31', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1974, 1, '2019-10-22 05:45:23', '2019-10-22 05:45:23', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-22 05:45:23', '2019-10-22 05:45:23', '', 1864, 'http://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2025, 1, '2019-10-25 07:11:31', '2019-10-25 07:11:31', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here: <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1934-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 07:11:31', '2019-10-25 07:11:31', '', 1934, 'http://marcellus.in/1934-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1983, 1, '2019-10-23 05:21:44', '2019-10-23 05:21:44', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 3 May, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The renewed easing of monetary policy by the Fed is unsustainable. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to prepare for the end of accommodative monetary policy in the US. For India, such a regime change, would increase the cost of capital, hurt Indian real estate and those who finance the same. It could however help shore up India’s flagging household savings rate even as it depresses discretionary consumption in India. </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“If the Federal Reserve were to signal…the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve put on stock markets, much of the problems associated with financial capitalism – poor returns to labour, excessive...executive compensations, short-term investment horizons, preference to financial over real investments, investor indifference to risk, build-up of public and private debt and systemic risk – would begin to sort themselves out…The rise of finance has been too steep and has crossed the peak usefulness for many societies.”</em> ― <strong>V.Anantha Nageswaran &amp; Gulzar Natarajan</strong> in ‘The Rise of Finance: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ (2019)</span></em></p>\n<strong>What the Fed is doing is scary</strong>\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Over 50 years ago, Hyman Minsky famously said that <em>“Stability leads to instability. The more stable things becomes and the longer things are stable, the more unstable they will be when the crisis hits.”</em></span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We can’t think of a better demonstration of Minsky’s theory than what the Federal Reserve has been upto since 21<sup>st</sup> December 2018. Spooked by the correction witnessed in US equity markets in December 2018, the Fed did an abrupt turnaround in monetary policy (from hiking rates to not hiking, from shrinking its balance sheet to not shrinking it any more). In fact, if the US media is to be believed, the Fed is about to announce a new variant of QE: <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/fed-looking-at-a-program-that-could-be-version-of-quantitative-easing.html\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/29/fed-looking-at-a-program-that-could-be-version-of-quantitative-easing.html </a>. The Fed doesn’t seem to care that unemployment in America is at 20-year low or that equity and residential real estate valuations in America (as measured by P/E multiples and rental yields respectively) are higher than they were prior to the Lehman crisis.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The Fed’s behaviour is compounded by a US President who wants monetary policy to be relaxed further and by central bankers across the world who are falling over each other in trying to follow the Fed. Thanks to these central bankers, we are seeing IPOs at wonderful valuations eg. USD3 billion for a coffee company in China: <a href=\"https://in.reuters.com/article/us-luckin-coffee-ipo-breakingviews/breakingviews-chinas-wannabe-starbucks-brews-a-muddy-ipo-idINKCN1RZ0ET\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://in.reuters.com/article/us-luckin-coffee-ipo-breakingviews/breakingviews-chinas-wannabe-starbucks-brews-a-muddy-ipo-idINKCN1RZ0ET </a></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Financialisation creates significant political risk for the West</strong>\nThis sort of accommodation of financial markets further enriches the American elite and further taxes the ordinary Jane Doe (through more expensive real estate and more generally through the higher cost of living). In a hard hitting new book, Anantha Nageswaran and Gulzar Natarajan lay out some sobering facts with regards to the United States:</span></em></p>\n\n<ul>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>1. “Credit market debt and the market value of equities in America were 212% of GDP in 1981 and 514% of GDP in 2014. </em></span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>2. The balance sheet of the Federal Reserve exploded from USD 200 billion to USD 4.5 trillion. Call that 23x gain…</em></span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>3. During the same years, the value of non-financial US corporate equities rose from USD 2.3 trillion to USD 23.6 trillion. Call it 10.3x…</em></span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>4. The median nominal income of US families increased from USD 31,000 to USD 71,000 over the over the period. Call it 2.3x….</em></span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>5. The average weekly wage of full-time workers in constant 1982 dollars was USD 330 per week in 1987 and is currently USD 340. Call it 1.03x.” (Source: ‘The Rise of Finance: Causes, Consequences and Cures’ – V.Anantha Nageswaran &amp; Gulzar Natarajan (2019)</em></span></em></li>\n</ul>\n<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As Western monetary policies continue to exacerbate pronounced inequalities, it feels like a matter of time before populist pressures force a withdrawal of such monetary policies (labelled the ‘Greenspan Put’ to celebrate the man who led America down the garden path). Whilst it is not possible for us to guess when such a policy reversal will take place, it is incumbent upon us to prepare for it.</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Focusing on downside risk</strong>\nThe most likely consequence of the withdrawal of the Federal Reserve/Greenspan Put will be a sustained rise in the cost of capital globally. The US 10-year Government bond yield is the world’s risk free rate. As shown by this link (<a href=\"https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart\" rel=\"nofollow\"> https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart</a>) for nearly forty years this rate has been falling. It bottomed out at 1.5% in August 2016 (down from 15.4% in September 1981). To quote from our 19<sup>th</sup> November 2018 piece: <em>“This epic downward trend in the world’s risk free rate has defined most of our careers. Had it not been for this downward trend, it is doubtful whether Emerging Market equities or Private Equity or Real Estate for that matter would be as big an asset class today as it has become.” </em>(See <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/have-we-hit-peak-finance/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/have-we-hit-peak-finance/</a>)</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">From 1.5% in August 2016, the US 10-year Government bond yield has risen to 2.5% in April 2019. If one looks forward, there is good reason to believe that the US 10-year bond yield will rise towards 5% (which is where it was before the Lehman crisis struck) if the political consensus in America shifts against the accommodation of Wall Street at the expense of Jane Doe.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Such a rise in US interest rates will almost certainly have a corresponding impact on the cost of money in India. Assuming a similar rise in the cost of money in India will take the Government of India ten year bond yield nearer to 9-10% (compared to the current 7-8%). How will that impact the Indian stockmarket?</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">We see three layers of impact playing out:</span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">1. The immediate consequence looks likely to be a shift in lending market share from the NBFCs to private sector banks (especially private banks with strong CASA franchises). Given the issues already plaguing the wholesale money market in India (IL&amp;FS, Essel, Debt mutual funds’ challenges, etc) this shift in market share in favour of private banks is already underway. A sustained rise in the US 10-year bond yield could make this shift more long lasting.</span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">2. The medium term consequence looks likely to be a rise in household financial savings (India’s household savings rate has fallen sharply from 25% in FY10 to 17% in FY17) and a drop in discretionary consumption (which has boomed over the last decade). Such a shift could create further issues for sectors like residential real estate and auto. The challenge could also extend to next rung down of discretionary consumption eg. electricals, consumer durables. On the other hand, the rise in household financial savings should help India’s banks (most of whom are struggling to attract deposits).</span></em></li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">3. The longer term consequence looks likely to be a drop in the price of land, real estate and fixed assets as the world and India gets accustomed to more expensive capital. (On this issue, my colleague, Salil Desai has written an interesting piece: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-three-degrees-of-disruption-in-home-buying-in-india/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-three-degrees-of-disruption-in-home-buying-in-india/</a>) It is hard to  gauge the full consequences of such a readjustment in fixed asset prices. Perhaps it will lead to a renewal of interest of gold as a safeharbour asset. Alternatively, it could lead to greater household financial savings as highlighted in the preceding bullet.</span></em></li>\n</ol>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\nOur straightforward style of investing in companies which consistently generate double digit revenue growth alongside delivering Return of Capital consistently in excess of cost of capital typically pushes us away from the sorts of companies which seem likely to suffer if the world readjusts to a permanently higher cost of capital.</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As shown in the Appendices of both of my bestselling books “The Unusual Billionaires” (2016) and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth” (2018), our portfolios tend to: <strong>(a)</strong> correct much less than the broader market in the wake of a financial upheaval; and <strong>(b)</strong> recover more quickly than the broader market once the upheaval has subsided. Worrying comes naturally to risk averse investors like us as we seek to ascertain when this extraordinary accommodation of financial markets by Western central bankers will end.</span></em></p>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Fed’s Accommodation of Wall Street: Endgame', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '786-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 05:21:44', '2019-10-23 05:21:44', '', 786, 'http://marcellus.in/786-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1991, 1, '2019-11-20 07:28:50', '2019-11-20 07:28:50', '<em>Published on: 18 Jan, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>Intensely researched, well thought through non-consensus opinions are priceless. VS Naipaul’s final book on India is an example of such work. Meticulously researched, Naipaul’s 1990 book flagged that India was a country on the move and on the make. At a time when the norm was to berate India for its many  failures, Naipaul had the courage and the conviction to tell the world that India was healing after seven hundred years of subjugation.    </strong>\n\n<em>“Now there were many revolutions within that revolution…All over India scores of particularities that had been frozen by foreign rule, or by poverty or lack of opportunity or abjectness had begun to flow again.” </em>– <strong>VS Naipaul in ‘India: A Million Mutinies Now’ </strong>(1990)\n\n<strong>Naipaul was a special talent….</strong>\nIn last week’s piece we discussed how we as investors need to balance the rational and the emotional especially since most of our formal training focuses on analysing rational inputs whilst ignoring the emotional stimuli that all of us are being relentlessly subjected to. Nobel Laureate VS Naipaul’s great strength was that as an accomplished author of fiction &amp; non-fiction books (a rare combination) his senses were as tuned into emotional stimuli as they were to rational facts &amp; figures.\n\nSir Vidiadhar Surajprasad Naipaul (1932-2018), although a Trinidadian by birth and British by nationality understood India in a way few foreigners can, both, because of his family’s Indian origins (he grandfather had migrated from India to Trinidad as an indentured labourer) and because of his repeated trips to India. The combination of all this gave birth to a remarkable book in 1990 - ‘India: A Million Mutinies Now’. The book not only not only foresaw India’s economic rebirth and social churn in the coming 20 years, it was and remains the most accurate, the most revealing narrative of India ever written, as relevant today as it was in 1990.\n\n<strong>….and produced a special book</strong>\nOver the course of 1988 &amp; 1989, Naipaul travelled across India, starting in Mumbai and then moving in an anti-clockwise direction across the country, eventually ending up in Kashmir. During the journey he met and interviewed criminal gang leaders in Bombay, Hindu and Muslim extremists, a leader of the Dalit Panthers, Naxalites and their police torturers in Chennai, Sikh terrorists, stockbrokers, government clerks, politicians, filmmakers and, of course, god men. The interviews with these men are interesting but by itself the content of the interviews would not surprise “natives” of India.\n\nThe astounding thing is how Naipaul joined up these interviews to produce conclusions that no one else had ever come up with. Even though most of the people he met give him the standard Indian bylines – that \"India had changed; it was not the good and stable country it had once been\"; that \"the great investment in development over three or four decades had led only to this: to \'corruption,\' to the \'criminalization of politics\' – Naipaul joined the dots very differently. His takeaway (which is as relevant today as it was in 1990) is:\n\n<em>“The book was dedicated to a further idea: that India was, in the simplest way, on the move; that all over the vast country, men and women had moved out of the cramped ways and expectations of their parents and grandparents, and were expecting more. This was the \"million mutinies\" of the title…’</em> – VS Naipaul [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul/</a>\n\nThis core point of the book was that a mighty country was on the move, a fractured land had been able to over the last hundred years, with steady acceleration, define and regenerate itself. This message has several facets which are teased out in the book, for example the rise of the Dalits, the rise of feminism, the willingness of Indians to migrate from one part of the country to another in search of a higher incomes, the aspirations of small businessmen to build something bigger, the flaming out of Naxalism, etc. Consider the following paragraph (from Chapter 3 of the book):\n<em>“People had a little bit more money now. It showed in the Karnataka countryside on the road to Goa. Indian poverty was still visible…But the fields, of sugar-cane and cotton and other crops, looked rich and well-tended; the village houses were often neat with plastered walls and red-tile roofs. There was nothing like the destitution I had seen 26 years before…”</em>\n\n<strong>Why was Naipaul able to see what no one else could?</strong>\nWhether in 1990 or in 2020, the standard view on India – given by residents and visitors, Indians and non-Indians – is that things are falling apart, that progress is glacial, that the country is riven by corruption, that democracy is a massive drag on development, that India for all its promise will ultimately not amount to much, etc.\n\nNaipaul was able to come up with a non-consensus view on India through a mixture of skill and hard work. Writing in 2007, when India was being celebrated as a boom country, he says:\n<em>“This seems a reasonable thing to say now, in 2007, at the time of an acknowledged Indian boom. It was different in 1988, when I began the book. India was full of a pietistic Gandhian gloom, self-satisfied and rather happy as this kind of gloom often is in India. The talk among the talkers in the towns was of degeneracy, a falling away from the standards of earlier times: politics were being criminalised, and there was corruption everywhere. Standard stuff, not profound, not based on any real knowledge of the country; but it could undermine one. It was the background against which I worked out my idea of the mutinies... The idea didn\'t come to me out of the air. I had done a lot of hard travelling in India in the past 26 years…I had picked up a more varied knowledge of the country than most Indians, who were bound to their families and jobs. I had spent many weeks in the districts, away from the big towns…”</em> [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul</a>]\n\nAlongside his highly developed powers of observation (honed in the prior decades by writing books on Africa and South America based on extensive travels in those continents) his sheer hard work helped Naipaul perceive India in a way no one else ever had even though he was an outsider. As a result, Naipaul had all the information of an insider with few of the biases and prejudices which insiders have. In his words, <em>“…I had to deal first of all with my ancestral land, India. I was not an insider, even after many months of travel; nor could I consider myself an outsider: India and the idea of India had always been important to me. So I was always divided about India, and found it hard to say a final word.”</em> [Source: <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://www.theguardian.com/books/2007/mar/10/fiction.vsnaipaul</a>]\n\n<strong>Investment implications </strong>\nIf we can bring to the table even 50% of the skill, the informed perspective and sheer industry that VS Naipaul had, we should be able to come up with uniquely valuable insights. In the context of our lives, our takeaways from Naipaul’s method of investigation is:\n<ol>\n 	<li>The superficial aspects of what makes a company unique can be understood in a few hours but it takes months, sometimes years, of research to understand what is the real sustainable competitive advantage of a company.\n2. We have to go off the beaten trail and dig deeper than others if we aspire to uncover fresh perspectives. So it is not just good enough to meet customers, suppliers and distributors of listed companies, we have to find even more unique perspectives on listed companies. Drinks &amp; dinner with the retired CEO of a rival company might provide more useful insights that the usual channel checks that most investors now conduct.</li>\n 	<li>When we do meet the usual suspects (company management, customers, suppliers and distributors of listed companies) we have to ask ourselves whether there are alternative ways to join the dots. So, if for example, our sources are saying that the “two wheeler market is saturated”, it might well be that the purchasing power of a key customer segment is maxed out for now rather than demand being satiated in the market.</li>\n 	<li>Rather than repeatedly making the same analyst in our team – the so called ‘sector expert’ – opine on that sector, we are better off by asking analysts to rotate across sectors so that we get the insider-outsider perspective that Naipaul had.</li>\n 	<li>We have to recognise that there is no substitute for experience. However, bright we might be, we can’t possibly understand HDFC Bank better than someone who is as bright as us, works as hard us as but has known HDFC Bank for twice as long. So dollops are humility are called for as we navigate our portfolios through the Indian market.</li>\n 	<li>And finally, we at Marcellus have to be cognisant that we too are one of India’s million mutinies. Not only are we a “challenger” firm, we are part of a generation that is challenging preconceived notions of India inside and outside the country. As a gentleman called Pravas tells Naipaul in Chapter 3 of the book: <em>“My son will go through a very large change in circumstances in many ways. In the family, in the school surroundings, in the job market, everywhere. I grew up in a half ritualistic background. My son will have no ritualistic background…There will be many like him. Society is moving that way.”</em></li>\n</ol>\n<em>If you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a></em>\n\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Marcellus: Reading VS Naipaul Will Make You Richer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '545-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-20 07:28:50', '2019-11-20 07:28:50', '', 545, 'http://marcellus.in/545-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(1994, 1, '2019-10-23 12:12:15', '2019-10-23 12:12:15', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on: 29 March, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The triangle of relationships – between politics/state on the first vertex, god/religion/ethics on the second vertex and commerce/investing/property rights on the third vertex – is a delicate interplay. The fact that over the last five decades, India’s GDP growth has been higher in every decade than in the one before, suggests that India has got the tensions between the three vertices broadly under control.</strong><strong>\n</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…if God is all-powerful, who needs Caesars? Without Caesars, Augustine replies, there’d be no Christians, and that can’t be God’s will. To be a Christian is itself to choose, freely, to follow Christ; but that choice would have left little behind if all Christians had been fed to the lions. Caesars rarely did that, however: the Roman empire over the three centuries from Jesus’ death to Constantine’s was, despite repressive intervals, a surprisingly hospitable place for the new religion [Christianity].”</em> – <strong>John Lewis Gaddis in ‘On Grand Strategy’</strong>, 2018 [square brackets are ours; Augustine refers to Saint Augustine (354–430AD), an early Christian theologian whose writings influenced the development of Western Christianity &amp; philosophy.]\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Football in Kolkata</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">On a recent trip to Kolkata, I went for a run along the Rabindra Sarobor (called “the Lake” by the locals). Every morning, and especially on Saturday mornings, dozens of cricket and football matches take place next to the Lake. At the end of my run, I stopped to see a competitive football match between two teams of teenage girls. As is the norm the world over, most of the spectators were parents. In this case many of the parents were burkha clad ladies. After the final whistle the two teams lined up to sing the national anthem and it felt nice listening to Rabi Thakur’s anthem sung with much enthusiasm in Rabindra Sarobor. Just as interesting was what followed.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">As the players dispersed and the burkha clad mothers walked home with their teenage daughters in football gear, the daughters - many of who had their football boots strung around their necks – received the standard dose of parental chastisement. One mother criticised her daughter in Hindi for not passing the ball enough. I heard another daughter being told in Bengali “if you don’t go for your early morning runs, you will be out of puff, like you were today, half way through the match.” Walking past these tiger mums reminded me of the fascinating relationship between politics, religion and investing.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>The triangle which under girds our lives</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Numerous political scientists and philosophers the world over have written on the interplay between the state/politics and the church/organised religion. Broadly speaking, the conventional demarcation between these two pillars of civilised life is as follows:\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Religion is supposed to provide us an ethical code which underpins life – both business &amp; personal – in way that the government/state/politics alone cannot. For example, if you and I are running competing companies in the same market, should I poach your customers away if you fall ill for a couple of months? The law cannot provide an answer to that question. Only ethics &amp; religion can and in that regard religion/ethics can be said to form the foundation of civilised life.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Where law or government/politics comes in is without the overarching protection of the state, it is hard for religion or commerce to flourish. Ideally, a well-functioning state provides shelter to the practitioners of various religions to practice their faith provided their faith does not encroach upon the remit of the state/law.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Unfortunately, this is exactly where there is a tension between the role of the state and that of religion. In particular, a state which is too weak might not be able to protect the practitioners of a specific faith from the attacks of rival faiths. On the other hand, a state which is overbearing might dictate to its citizens what religion/faith they should practice. This latter approach is the one that countries dominated by the Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Zionism and Islam) have taken for the most part. To this day, you have to be an Anglican Christian to the be Prime Minister of Britain. To this day, Britons who are not Anglicans have to listen to the hectoring of politicians who worry about the national fabric being ruined by Catholics, Muslims, Hindus, etc.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Interestingly, this fusing (sometimes explicit but usually implicit) between the role of the state and that of religion seems to be something which has hitherto been restricted to countries dominated by Abrahamic religions. For example, neither in Japan nor in China nor India does the head of the state have to belong to a particular religion. In fact, in none of the Asian countries dominated by non-Abrahamic religions has a formal attempt been made to link religion with the state (although in countries like Sri Lanka and Thailand several attempts have been made to make Buddhism the official religion and thus a prerequisite for offices of power).\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">The tension that characterises the interplay between the role of the state/polity and the role of religion also extends to commerce and investing. Whether I am investing in a stock or in my daughter’s education or in a piece of real estate in India, I am placing my faith in the Indian state and its politicians that they will protect my investment (rather than usurping my investment and violating my rights in the name of the greater good) regardless of what religion I practice. As Machiavelli said in ‘The Discourses’: <em>“It is only in republics that the common good is looked to properly in that all that promotes it is carried out; and however much this or that private person may be the loser on this account, there are <u>so many who benefit thereby that the common good can be realized in spite of those few who suffer in consequence</u>.” [Underlining is ours]</em>\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Here the countries with Abrahamic faiths have a mixed track record. In much of the Middle East you have to be an Arab to have secure property rights. In Britain, where the head of the Church of England is also the head of the state, or in the United States (where the President is formally not supposed to be linked to a specific religion but usually shows himself to be a God-fearing Christian), the state makes a great show of protecting property rights. The fact that other countries take this posturing with a pinch of salt is evident from the need to create the World Trade Organisation in 1995. The WTO sits above national governments and supervises global trade. It is not beholden to any country or to any religion.\n\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">This triangle of relationships – between politics/state on the first vertex, god/religion/ethics on the second vertex and commerce/investing/property rights on the third vertex – is a delicate interplay in India and elsewhere. The fact that over the last five decades, India’s GDP growth has been higher in every decade than in the one before, suggests that India has got the tensions between the three vertices of this triangle broadly under control. That by itself is a feat worth celebrating. In fact, India is the only large economy in the world which for five consecutive decades has demonstrated a rising trend in economic growth. The amount of progress we make in the next fifty years will depend more on sustaining this delicate balance (between the three vertices which define a civilised society) rather than on further liberalising our economy.\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: The Delicate Dance Between Politics, Religion & Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '680-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-23 12:12:15', '2019-10-23 12:12:15', '', 680, 'http://marcellus.in/680-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(1997, 1, '2019-10-24 04:13:39', '2019-10-24 04:13:39', '20 years ago twelve American academics published a collection of studies tracing the intellectual development of giants like Einstein, Darwin, Faraday, Lavoisier, Beethoven and Wordsworth. This intense study of creative people yields rich leanings. At the core of creativity is a heavy duty memory, a multiplicity of projects, stimulating company and a willingness to work at perfecting your craft for decades on end.\n\n“…it is a truism to say that the creative person is unique, since that is true for every human being. But the key point is that the student of creative work makes the understanding of that uniqueness the central goal of the investigation. If there is to be a scientific understanding of creative people, it cannot be limited to those few things we may find that some creative people have in common. Instead, we must search for a general approach to the description and understanding of unique, creative people.” - Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber in ‘Creative People at Work’ (1989)\n\nLearnings from experts’ study of creativity\nWhatever our abilities might be, the British neuroscientist, Sarah-Jayne Blakemore has shown that we can improve regardless of our age because of the trainability, the plasticity of the human brain: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-your-all-powerful-plastic-brain/. An especially exciting area of learning is around enhancing our creativity and improving our ability to think originally. American academic, Adam Grant’s exceptional book on this subject ‘Originals: How Non-Conformists Change the World’ (2016) has been a rich source of learning for us. We learnt from Grant that “original thinkers – in investing and beyond – have wide ranging interests beyond their profession, have a yearning to alter the status quo and a high rate of idea generation.” (You can find our blog on this subject here: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-non-conformism-underpins-original-thought/)\n\nAdam Grant’s book refers to an older, more detailed study of creativity conducted by a dozen American academics in 1989. ‘Creative People at Work: Twelve Cognitive Case Studies’ is an engrossing study of the greatest minds of the last 500 years. Edited by Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber, the book traces in detail the education and step-by-step intellectual development of giants like Alfred Einstein, Charles Darwin, Michael Faraday, Antoine Lavoisier, Hans Krebs, Beethoven and William Wordsworth. What did they study? For how long? Who were their friends and their sounding boards? How did they juggle multiple projects? How did they deal with setbacks?\n\nBoth ‘Originals’ and ‘Creative People at Work’ say that there is no cut &amp; dried recipe for creativity. Nor is there is a fixed set of personality traits which indicate whether one person will be more or less creative than her neighbour. Both books stress that creativity is the result of purposeful, determined &amp; sustained effort rather than being the result – as the popular preconception goes – of a lightbulb going off in the head of a genius. So what then are the most reliable methods to juice up creativity? Here are our learnings from ‘Creative People at Work’ (CPW).\n\nFive methods to enhance creativity\nMemory: One of the most fascinating aspects of creativity is how dependent it is on memory. Beethoven wrote that “I carry my thoughts about with me for a very long time, often for a very long time before writing them down. I can…be sure that…I shall not forget [a theme] even years later. I change many things, discard others and try again and again until I am satisfied; then in my head I begin to elaborate the work…the underlying idea never deserts me. It rises, it grows. I hear and see the image in front of me from every angle…” (Source: ‘Beethoven: Letters and Journals and Conversations’ (1952) by M.Hamburger).\nIn our 10th December 2018 blog we have elaborated upon how psychologists have demonstrated that memory is a type of intelligence; in fact, intelligence is nothing more than a specialised bank of memories (see http://marcellus.in/blogs/your-memory-will-determine-how-much-money-you-make/). In his landmark book ‘Thinking, Fast &amp; Slow’ (2011) Danny Kahneman famously says, “Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find the relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.” That in turn leads us to delve into how creative people enhance their memories so that their recall is richer and deeper than that of the average person.\n\nHenry Roediger, who runs the Memory Lab at the University of Washington at St Louis, has found that “memory champions” have high cognitive ability. “We found that one of the biggest differences between memory athletes and the rest of us is in a cognitive ability that’s not a direct measure of memory at all but of attention”.\nSimply put, people who have developed their memories to a very high level have highly developed “attentional control”, i.e. the ability to maintain heightened focus on essential information for long periods of time. In other words, a side effect of the effort that these champions put into memorising stuff is that they learn to concentrate for extended periods of time. This ability can be then usefully applied to any task requiring deep concentration.\n\nWide reading alongside deep education: If just reading around widely was all that it took to be creative then we would have millions of newspaper readers and social media junkies bursting with fresh ideas. Instead, creativity it would appears arises from gaining mastery of one’s discipline by using a very specific style of reading/education. We call it the “T-shaped” model of brain development i.e. the creative masters read around extensively whilst educating/training themselves intensively in a specific field. Chapter 9 of CPW explains how Albert Einstein used this model of mastery to generate the insight which ultimately led to his “special theory of relativity, a monumental achievement…[for] a single scientist working alone and out of the academic mainstream”. Experts who have sought to understand how Einstein cracked this puzzle have broken his problem-solving into two parts.\nStep 1 was a thought experiment that Einstein conducted when he was just 16 years old. This thought experiment contained the seeds to cracking the problem of special relativity. In Einstein’s own words from his ‘Autobiographical Notes’: \"...a paradox upon which I had already hit at the age of sixteen: If I pursue a beam of light with the velocity c (velocity of light in a vacuum), I should observe such a beam of light as an electromagnetic field at rest though spatially oscillating. There seems to be no such thing, however, neither on the basis of experience nor according to Maxwell\'s equations. From the very beginning it appeared to me intuitively clear that, judged from the standpoint of such an observer, everything would have to happen according to the same laws as for an observer who, relative to the earth, was at rest. For how should the first observer know or be able to determine, that he is in a state of fast uniform motion? One sees in this paradox the germ of the special relativity theory is already contained.\" [For an illustrated account what Einstein is saying, read https://www.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/Goodies/Chasing_the_light/]\nEinstein’s thought experiment highlighted a paradox with utmost simplicity: either I am moving with the beam of light with velocity c or I am at rest. I cannot be in both states at the same time.\n\nStep 2 is Einstein proceeding to crack this paradox over the next 11 years and helping the world understand how light travels and more generally, how objects – including celestial bodies – move in a world where gravitational effects are negligible.\n\nCPW contends that Einstein’s ability to hit upon the novel thought experiment in Step 1 was greatly helped not just by by his (fairly conventional) schooling in Germany and then Italy but also by: (a) his extensive discussions with his uncle, Caesar Koch, who would spend hours discussing complex maths problems with his teenage nephew; and (b) his special schooling in Switzerland in a Kantonsschule which specialised in Anschauung i.e. intuition or ‘apprehension or immediate perception that involves fewest elements of rational insight’.\n\nEinstein’s success in Step 2 was also underpinned not just by his conventional university education in Zurich Polytechnic but also the inputs he received on his scientific papers from his uncle. Furthermore, through his teenage years Einstein absorbed the philosophy of Immanuel Kant, the father of Anschauung, who propounded that all of us possess not just intellect but also intuition. Kant famously argued that the objects we see around us are just “mere representations and not as things in themselves\". Kant’s exhortation to think about the world in abstract terms and nail down truths which are independent of what we have experienced in our day-to-day life had a direct influence, say the authors of CPW, on Einstein’s intellectual development.\n\nTo see an alternative illustration of the T-shaped model of creative mastery in the martial arts, see our blog on Bruce Lee: http://marcellus.in/blogs/Bruce-lee-and-the-rise-of-the-generalist/\n\nA multiplicity of projects pursed with patience &amp; purpose: As Wallace &amp; Grubber say in CPW, “We use the term enterprise to stand for a group of related projects and activities broadly enough defined so that (1) the enterprise may continue when the creative person finds one path blocked but another open toward the same goal and (2) when success is achieved the enterprise does not come to an end but generates new tasks and projects that continue it.\nEnterprises rarely come singly. The creative person differentiates a number of main lines of activity. This has the advantage that when enterprise grinds to a halt, productive work does not cease. The person has an agenda, some measure of control over the rhythm and sequence with which different enterprises are activated. This control can be used to deal with needs for variety, with obstacles encountered…\nA second outstanding characteristic of enterprises is their longevity and durability. To take only one example, Milton began the work that led to ‘Paradise Lost’ in 1640 but did not complete it until 1667. It was the major project within the enterprise of writing epic poems; that enterprise was one among several – politics, prose pamphlets, and the shorter poems.”\n\nHow does pursuing a bunch of projects help creativity? Firstly, these projects give structure to the creative person’s life which might otherwise – to the outsider – look disorganised. Secondly, this range of projects ‘allows the person to choose tasks that fit different moods and needs.’ Thirdly, pursuing a portfolio of projects allows for cross fertilization of ideas. For example, “Darwin was a pigeon fancier, but he had no need to strive to be a great breeder. For him, consorting with pigeon breeders was a way of steeping himself in the art and lore of breeding, knowledge that he could turn to good account in other enterprises, in the zone of his greatness.”\n\nPurposeful repetition &amp; revision: One of the great ironies of creativity is that great works of art or literature that are commonly perceived to be the result of a burst of creativity are usually the result of endless practice, repetition and rehearsal. Take, for example, the poems of William Butler Yeats: “Lest it be thought that liberation “from the pressure of will” produced outpourings of untrammeled spontaneity, be it noted that Yeats was an extremely deliberate writer. He “followed a pattern of composition which was to vary very little for the rest of his life: prose draft, rough verse drafts, fair copy, magazine publication and then further revisions for the first printing in book form.”…one of his biographers stresses “the tremendous organisation that informs the poems and the poet; every crisis is mastered and every poem comes out of years of preparation.”\n\nCollaboration &amp; interaction with others: It is extremely rare for creative people to work in a void. Such people have a range of associates around them to provide emotional support (especially encouragement in the face of setbacks), intellectual support (especially thoughts on how to see the same idea differently) and practical help (money, meals, etc). CPW has a riveting chapter on how the English poet, William Wordsworth, wrote his poems and the role that others – particularly his sister, Dorothy, and the poet Coleridge – played in the composition of one of Wordsworth’s most famous poems, ‘The Daffodils’ aka ‘I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud’ (https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45521/i-wandered-lonely-as-a-cloud):\n“Wordsworth’s living arrangements facilitated bringing others into the process of reworking [his poems]. This was true of his collaborative relationship with Coleridge and more pervasive and long lived in his relationship with his sister Dorothy.\nDorothy was an extremely sensitive observer and recorder of the Lake District’s landscape scenes where she and her brother lived and walked. Wordsworth\'s famous poem ‘The Daffodils’, composed in 1804, finds its source in the vocabulary and images of Dorothy’s ‘Journal’ where she describes the daffodils she and her brother had seen on a walk together…Wordsworth’s poem begins:\n‘I wandered lonely as a cloud\nThat floats on high o’er vales and hills\nWhen all at once I saw a crowd,\nA host of golden daffodils-\nAlong the lake, beneath the trees,\nTen thousand dancing in the breeze…’\n\nDorothy had described the scene in her ‘Journal’ in in April 1802: ‘I never saw daffodils so beautiful they grew upon mossy stones and about them, some rested their heads upon these stones as a on a pillow for weariness and the rest tossed and reeled and danced and seemed as if they verily laughed with the wind that blew upon them…’\n\nThus one of the best known poems in English begins with a joint experience, a scene observed by William and Dorothy…” (Source: ‘Creative People at Work’ (1989) by Doris Wallace &amp; Howard Gruber)\n\nThe five bullet points listed above are obviously related. For example, it is difficult for a creative person to pursue repetition &amp; revision if her memory is not highly developed. The causality also flows in the opposite direction: it is not easy to have a highly developed memory if one does not repeatedly practice one’s art. Furthermore, it is difficult to find the motivation for prolonged and repetitive revisions if one does not have an underlying sense of purpose of drive. That in turn raises the question why it is that some people are more driven and more motivated than others. We have tried to address this issue in our 5th April 2019 blog: http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-foundations-of-self-belief/.\n\nInvestment implications\nWhen we began building Marcellus a little over a year ago, we consciously looked around not just for the smartest people we knew in the investment profession but also for people who love to read extensively, to discuss ideas for hours on end and – at the same time - know how to work hard (knowing full well that ‘hard work’ in our profession can come in a multitude of forms ranging from forensic financial analysis to meeting a dozen undergarment dealers in four different cities over two days). In fact, for most of us the very decision to leave behind the world of broking, investment banking and wealth management in order to build Marcellus hinged around such considerations i.e. we wanted to spend lots of time reading and discussing ideas rather than chasing targets, budgets, deadlines and other such ephemera from the conventional business world. We remain keen to work with people who enjoy reading at length and in-depth whilst having the maturity to bounce half-formed ideas off colleagues. We have learnt over time that from the seeds of such protean ideas are great investments born.\n\nWe seek to work with people whose core purpose in life is purposeful, deep inquiry into companies with the aim of generating healthy returns with compressed levels of risk for our 800 clients. We believe that the reason our two recent books – ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ (2016) and ‘Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’ (2018) – have become national bestsellers is inherently linked to why our portfolio is delivering decent results i.e. we put our minds together to create a novel construct for investing in a highly conservative manner amidst the chaos of India. You can see here how we are doing: <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/</a> Needless to say, we intend to continue learning from people who are more creative than us. Marcellus Investment Managers wishes all its clients, friends and well wishers a very Happy Diwali.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit http://marcellus.in/resources/\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.', 'Diwali Special: Learning From Creative People At Work', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1996-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-24 04:13:39', '2019-10-24 04:13:39', '', 1996, 'http://marcellus.in/1996-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2002, 1, '2019-10-25 04:52:29', '2019-10-25 04:52:29', 'In many aspects of our lives, we tend to take certain age-old practices for granted without understanding the underlying principles and context, including our own world of investing - whilst principles of investing are broadly applicable across the world, there are nuances in each market which require a more contextual application. In this article, John F. Sullivan, a former US Army officer who served in China takes a sceptical view of Sun Tzu’s military strategy as expounded in his book - ‘The Art of War’ in terms of its universal applicability across time and place. Indeed, John highlights the fact Chinese military leaders over time themselves have questioned Sun Tzu whereas the West continues to treat his writings as the holy grail of military strategy.\r\n“The main problem, though, is that The Art of War is no longer viewed as merely one entrant within a larger arena of competing strategic ideas. For too many, especially in the West, Sun Tzu is often the lone voice speaking on behalf of millennia of Chinese strategic and military thinking. Michael Handel’s Masters of War, which examines the similarities and differences between Eastern and Western strategic philosophies, exemplifies this issue. While Handel focuses primarily on Clausewitz in examining the Western view of strategy, he also supplements his assessment with the writings of a diverse group of competing theorists from vastly different eras, such as Thucydides, Polybius, Machiavelli, Napoleon, Jomini, Mahan, and Corbett. The Eastern side of the equation focuses exclusively on Sun Tzu, with the exception of a smattering of Mao Zedong quotes. The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box. Within the curriculum of prestigious strategic studies courses such as the U.S. Army War College and Yale’s Program in Grand Strategy, Sun Tzu retains his status as the sole representative of the entire corpus of Chinese strategic thinking.\r\nThis skeptical stance does not suggest that there is nothing of value to be gained from continued study of The Art of War, nor that we should purge it from strategic studies syllabi. There is still much to be admired in the work. “Do not depend on the enemy not coming; depend rather on being ready for him,” should be carved into granite above the main entrance to each of the service’s war colleges.[14] Sun Tzu’s admonition that “a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined to defeat fights in the hope of winning,” should be affixed to the cubicle of every staff officer in the Pentagon.[15] But we err in our unchallenged assumption that Sun Tzu also provides us a viable roadmap to achieving these goals. Despite the prevailing conventional wisdom, the text is much more reflective of the character of warfare during the early Warring States era than a treatise on the unchanging nature of war. If we insist on clinging to the false narrative of Sun Tzu’s enduring relevance, we are destined to fare no better in our quest to master strategy than the oblivious archers of Yue.”', 'Notes from a Sun Tzu skeptic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2001-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 04:52:29', '2019-10-25 04:52:29', '', 2001, 'http://marcellus.in/2001-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2003, 1, '2019-10-06 04:53:21', '2019-10-06 04:53:21', 'We have featured the rise of the fake meat or the plant based protein industry in this space earlier highlighting how this could go a long way in reducing carbon footprint generated by the beef industry. This blog by Seth Miller provides an alternate perspective – about how the success of fake meat may not necessarily disrupt the traditional meat industry and hence consequentially any carbon footprint associated with it. Seth argues that the efficiency of the beef industry where the farm share of the retail shelf price is as high as 45%, even greater than apples and lemons where there’s no processing involved, makes it somewhat immune to the threat from fake meat. Seth’s math using Beyond Meat’s numbers shows that for fake meat to become comparably efficient, volumes will have to rise to such an extent that Beyond Meat alone will have to be larger than the entire cattle market today. With both Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger emerging from Silicon Valley, Seth reckons this is one disruption the valley may not end up pulling off.\r\n“That’s what cows do all day, every day — they eat grass. They use that plant energy to locate more grass, and eat that too. A cow’s ceaseless job is to convert the planet’s most fibrous, lowest quality feed into milk and meat. A cow is an engine that turns sunlight to dollars.\r\nIt is also an engine that pollutes: Cows alone contribute almost as much to climate change as all of the cars in the world — over 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gases. Their nearly indigestible diet nourishes a microbial community which respires methane into belches and nitrous oxide into manure. Tropical rainforest, and all the carbon it keeps, is leveled to create pasture. Gasoline is burned to keep the butchered meat cold and fresh. Every pound of steak we produce adds almost thirty pounds of carbon to the atmosphere. Every pound of steak protein requires 25 pounds of vegetable protein to grow….For the climate to sustain, global dairy and meat consumption must be cut in half from today’s levels. In developed nations like the US, beef consumption must drop 80% or more by 2050….\r\n……..But the cow is a new sort of target for Silicon Valley. A cow is not a hunk of capital like an internal combustion engine or a coal-fired boiler. A cow will not join your social network or be called by an API. A cow is an animal which has been naturally selected, over millions of years, to turn feed into protein as efficiently as nature allows, lest it be out-competed by another, more efficient creature. A cow, thick with meat and fat, is dinner that humans have evolved to love.\r\nSilicon Valley has convened to disrupt a thing that is solar powered, fully autonomous, and has — to borrow one of the Valley’s favorite terms — perfect product-market fit.\r\n…..Ground beef outsells fake meat by a factor of nearly 100-fold, so it is no surprise that it is less expensive. But the opportunity to close the gap remains: a rough rule of thumb for manufacturing is that increasing scale by 10X will drop production costs in half. Make a burger that the masses are willing to eat and costs will come down naturally. The world’s vegan meat corporations will recoup their investments as the market grows.\r\nBut this framework underestimates just how streamlined the cow — and the global beef production system — really is. There is more to the cost of food than just the raw ingredients — there is processing, packaging, marketing, transport. The “farm share” of a Beyond Burger — the total retail value that returns to the farm — is probably just 15¢ per pound of patty. The processed Beyond Burger sells for $12/lb at retail — a price at which the company still loses money — meaning that 1.25% of the shelf price returns to the farm to pay for raw ingredients. This is well below the farm shares of high volume commodity processed food like bread (4%), tofu (2–3%), and roughly on par with a branded product like Coca Cola (1.6%).\r\nMeanwhile, the farm share of a cow is 45%.\r\nAlmost half the grocery store price of ground beef covers the cost of the live cow. Thanks to the magic of commodity capitalism trucks are filled consistently, less meat ages in inventory, and little is lost to waste. With volume high, everyone in the supply chain subsists on a sliver of revenue, and grocery stores keep retail prices at or even below cost to drive traffic into the store.\r\nHow much do economies of scale save? The farm share of beef is double that of apples, and triple that of lemons. We can slaughter beef, box it, transport it across the country and stock it on shelves with lower added cost than we can put a sticker on fruit.\r\nTo match the price of beef on the retail shelf and to win over the bulk of its price-conscious customers, Beyond Meat has to scale. Automated equipment must be erected to purify and texture pea protein, and burgers must be slung at terrifying rates to spread that cost across hundreds of millions of customers. To meet its promise to the Earth, Beyond has to get bigger. Terrifically, implausibly bigger.\r\nTo understand how big requires a little math. Today, Beyond’s small production volume — 20 million pounds of plant burger per year, or just 0.2% of the US ground beef market — leaves each burger 4X more expensive to produce than beef.[3] If we use my simple rule of thumb that a 10X increase in scale will drop costs by 2X, then Beyond will have to scale 100-fold — to 2 billion pounds per year, or 20% of US ground beef production — before it matches beef on production cost.[4] But if it also wants profits — a standard 60% “gross margin” above costs to pay for marketing and provide a return to investors — another halving of production costs and another 10X increase in scale is in order (recall that it must compete with beef, a commodity that gets by with barely any profit at all). A single company would have to produce more fake meat than the entire cattle market sells today.\r\nSimply put, there is no Moore’s Law of meat. There is no exponential technological improvement that inevitably turns a cow into a relic of earlier civilization like a steam engine or photographic film. Our canonical vision of disruption arises in industries overturning early, crude human technology, not a machine that Nature has built. There is no universe where technology-enabled meat is half the price of the original, the way that solar is already half the price of coal in the sunniest areas of the world.\r\nCows are and will remain the technology we wish we could invent: Modular, self-powered factories able to build value from waste. Cows are the open source solution for food, low cost and available to all. Cows are what our technologies might aspire to after a few million years of our own technological evolution, herds of them quietly grooming the planet\r\nWe will not stop eating cow because we have built a better meat. When we stop eating cow, it will be because we have built a better us.”', 'Is it possible to disrupt a cow?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'is-it-possible-to-disrupt-a-cow', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:16:31', '2019-11-04 07:16:31', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2003', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2004, 1, '2019-10-25 04:59:17', '2019-10-25 04:59:17', 'We have featured the rise of the fake meat or the plant based protein industry in this space earlier highlighting how this could go a long way in reducing carbon footprint generated by the beef industry. This blog by Seth Miller provides an alternate perspective – about how the success of fake meat may not necessarily disrupt the traditional meat industry and hence consequentially any carbon footprint associated with it. Seth argues that the efficiency of the beef industry where the farm share of the retail shelf price is as high as 45%, even greater than apples and lemons where there’s no processing involved, makes it somewhat immune to the threat from fake meat. Seth’s math using Beyond Meat’s numbers shows that for fake meat to become comparably efficient, volumes will have to rise to such an extent that Beyond Meat alone will have to be larger than the entire cattle market today. With both Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger emerging from Silicon Valley, Seth reckons this is one disruption the valley may not end up pulling off.\r\n“That’s what cows do all day, every day — they eat grass. They use that plant energy to locate more grass, and eat that too. A cow’s ceaseless job is to convert the planet’s most fibrous, lowest quality feed into milk and meat. A cow is an engine that turns sunlight to dollars.\r\nIt is also an engine that pollutes: Cows alone contribute almost as much to climate change as all of the cars in the world — over 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gases. Their nearly indigestible diet nourishes a microbial community which respires methane into belches and nitrous oxide into manure. Tropical rainforest, and all the carbon it keeps, is leveled to create pasture. Gasoline is burned to keep the butchered meat cold and fresh. Every pound of steak we produce adds almost thirty pounds of carbon to the atmosphere. Every pound of steak protein requires 25 pounds of vegetable protein to grow….For the climate to sustain, global dairy and meat consumption must be cut in half from today’s levels. In developed nations like the US, beef consumption must drop 80% or more by 2050….\r\n……..But the cow is a new sort of target for Silicon Valley. A cow is not a hunk of capital like an internal combustion engine or a coal-fired boiler. A cow will not join your social network or be called by an API. A cow is an animal which has been naturally selected, over millions of years, to turn feed into protein as efficiently as nature allows, lest it be out-competed by another, more efficient creature. A cow, thick with meat and fat, is dinner that humans have evolved to love.\r\nSilicon Valley has convened to disrupt a thing that is solar powered, fully autonomous, and has — to borrow one of the Valley’s favorite terms — perfect product-market fit.\r\n…..Ground beef outsells fake meat by a factor of nearly 100-fold, so it is no surprise that it is less expensive. But the opportunity to close the gap remains: a rough rule of thumb for manufacturing is that increasing scale by 10X will drop production costs in half. Make a burger that the masses are willing to eat and costs will come down naturally. The world’s vegan meat corporations will recoup their investments as the market grows.\r\nBut this framework underestimates just how streamlined the cow — and the global beef production system — really is. There is more to the cost of food than just the raw ingredients — there is processing, packaging, marketing, transport. The “farm share” of a Beyond Burger — the total retail value that returns to the farm — is probably just 15¢ per pound of patty. The processed Beyond Burger sells for $12/lb at retail — a price at which the company still loses money — meaning that 1.25% of the shelf price returns to the farm to pay for raw ingredients. This is well below the farm shares of high volume commodity processed food like bread (4%), tofu (2–3%), and roughly on par with a branded product like Coca Cola (1.6%).\r\nMeanwhile, the farm share of a cow is 45%.\r\nAlmost half the grocery store price of ground beef covers the cost of the live cow. Thanks to the magic of commodity capitalism trucks are filled consistently, less meat ages in inventory, and little is lost to waste. With volume high, everyone in the supply chain subsists on a sliver of revenue, and grocery stores keep retail prices at or even below cost to drive traffic into the store.\r\nHow much do economies of scale save? The farm share of beef is double that of apples, and triple that of lemons. We can slaughter beef, box it, transport it across the country and stock it on shelves with lower added cost than we can put a sticker on fruit.\r\nTo match the price of beef on the retail shelf and to win over the bulk of its price-conscious customers, Beyond Meat has to scale. Automated equipment must be erected to purify and texture pea protein, and burgers must be slung at terrifying rates to spread that cost across hundreds of millions of customers. To meet its promise to the Earth, Beyond has to get bigger. Terrifically, implausibly bigger.\r\nTo understand how big requires a little math. Today, Beyond’s small production volume — 20 million pounds of plant burger per year, or just 0.2% of the US ground beef market — leaves each burger 4X more expensive to produce than beef.[3] If we use my simple rule of thumb that a 10X increase in scale will drop costs by 2X, then Beyond will have to scale 100-fold — to 2 billion pounds per year, or 20% of US ground beef production — before it matches beef on production cost.[4] But if it also wants profits — a standard 60% “gross margin” above costs to pay for marketing and provide a return to investors — another halving of production costs and another 10X increase in scale is in order (recall that it must compete with beef, a commodity that gets by with barely any profit at all). A single company would have to produce more fake meat than the entire cattle market sells today.\r\nSimply put, there is no Moore’s Law of meat. There is no exponential technological improvement that inevitably turns a cow into a relic of earlier civilization like a steam engine or photographic film. Our canonical vision of disruption arises in industries overturning early, crude human technology, not a machine that Nature has built. There is no universe where technology-enabled meat is half the price of the original, the way that solar is already half the price of coal in the sunniest areas of the world.\r\nCows are and will remain the technology we wish we could invent: Modular, self-powered factories able to build value from waste. Cows are the open source solution for food, low cost and available to all. Cows are what our technologies might aspire to after a few million years of our own technological evolution, herds of them quietly grooming the planet\r\nWe will not stop eating cow because we have built a better meat. When we stop eating cow, it will be because we have built a better us.”', 'Is it possible to disrupt a cow?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2003-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 04:59:17', '2019-10-25 04:59:17', '', 2003, 'http://marcellus.in/2003-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2005, 1, '2019-10-06 04:59:26', '2019-10-06 04:59:26', 'Another masterpiece by Morgan Housel, more so because the subject matter of the blog is the reason we produce Three longs and three shorts. Morgan brings out the need to have a perspective on a wide variety of topics so as to be in a position to connect seemingly disparate events/issues and draw a coherent meaningful insight. In this piece, Morgan talks about what he considers as the three most important issues influencing humanity today - Demographics, Inequality and Access to Information. On each of these issues, Morgan brings out a historical perspective which can help drive second level thinking and hence a very different take on what might transpire in the future than what is reflected by the current consensus. For example, he reckons that whilst demographically ageing populations might affect most countries in the developed world, America is likely to see its competitiveness rise thanks to a long history of immigration not only offsetting the falling population but also driving enterprise and nation building. On inequality, he takes on an equally sanguine stance that mean reversion historically has meant that the have-nots of today will get together and drive policy towards redistribution. On the internet and breaking down on information barriers, he is less decisive given both fascinating and terrifying things emerge alongside – removal of ideological ignorance and meritocracy as the positives on the one hand to the travesty that fake news creates on the other. A fascinating read nonetheless about how insight is the product of knowledge gained across a diverse set of topics and the ability to join the dots.', 'Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'three-big-things-the-most-important-forces-shaping-the-world', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:15:36', '2019-11-04 07:15:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2005', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2006, 1, '2019-10-25 05:00:44', '2019-10-25 05:00:44', 'Another masterpiece by Morgan Housel, more so because the subject matter of the blog is the reason we produce Three longs and three shorts. Morgan brings out the need to have a perspective on a wide variety of topics so as to be in a position to connect seemingly disparate events/issues and draw a coherent meaningful insight. In this piece, Morgan talks about what he considers as the three most important issues influencing humanity today - Demographics, Inequality and Access to Information. On each of these issues, Morgan brings out a historical perspective which can help drive second level thinking and hence a very different take on what might transpire in the future than what is reflected by the current consensus. For example, he reckons that whilst demographically ageing populations might affect most countries in the developed world, America is likely to see its competitiveness rise thanks to a long history of immigration not only offsetting the falling population but also driving enterprise and nation building. On inequality, he takes on an equally sanguine stance that mean reversion historically has meant that the have-nots of today will get together and drive policy towards redistribution. On the internet and breaking down on information barriers, he is less decisive given both fascinating and terrifying things emerge alongside – removal of ideological ignorance and meritocracy as the positives on the one hand to the travesty that fake news creates on the other. A fascinating read nonetheless about how insight is the product of knowledge gained across a diverse set of topics and the ability to join the dots.', 'Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2005-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:00:44', '2019-10-25 05:00:44', '', 2005, 'http://marcellus.in/2005-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2007, 1, '2019-10-06 05:00:50', '2019-10-06 05:00:50', 'Ben Carlson, another star commentator from the fabulous Ritholtz stable, discusses one of the best business books he has read for a long time - Mike Isaac’s book ‘Super Pumped: The Battle For Uber’.\r\nCarlson says that there are no neat black &amp; white takeaways from Uber’s rise; instead there a good, bad and ugly takeaways.\r\nLesson 1 – Tech can clearly &amp; obviously supercharge businesses: “Garrett Camp came up with the idea for Uber in 2008 because the transportation system in the Bay Area was so subpar. Travis Kalanick took that idea and ran with it, creating a business out of thin air that’s now worth more than $50 billion.\r\nA little over 10 years after that idea was hatched, Uber is a company that operates worldwide, using a process that has disrupted the transportation business in an obscenely short amount of time.”\r\nLesson 2 – There is tons of cheap VC money sloshing around in America – The book details “…an Uber company-wide party in Las Vegas to celebrate hitting the $1 billion mark in gross bookings. Thousands of employees were flown to Vegas for an entire week of celebration, drinking, and debauchery. There were open bars everywhere, parties at clubs, and a grand finale performance by Beyonce…” Queen B was paid $6m in restricted stock units for her performance that night even as her husband – a megastar in his own right – sat and watched the wild party.\r\nLesson 3 – Most boards in Silicon Valley (and perhaps most boards everywhere) are useless: The book has a killer anecdote to drive home this point: “Kalanick had a standing meeting with Apple’s Tim Cook and Eddie Cue because the App Store was so important to the Uber’s business model. Cue asked Kalanick why Uber took an investment from Google and placed their chief legal officer on the board, considering both Uber and Google are in the self-driving car space.\r\nKalanick told them bluntly: “The board is irrelevant,” Kalanick said, waving them off of the idea. “I hand pick all of these guys. They do what I tell them, and the way I’ve structured things, I do what I want.”\r\nCue was taken aback. Many founders at least performed a sense of humility in public—a strategic modesty that Kalanick clearly lacked.”\r\nLesson 4 – Most companies cut corners to rise to the top: “Uber…pushed these grey areas to the extreme, going so far as spying on government officials, tracking their digital lives and even following them to their houses to keep tabs on them.\r\nThe most egregious example Isaac used was a line of code called Greyball, which allowed the company to identify people who posed a threat to the company from a regulation perspective when they downloaded the Uber app.\r\nKalanick and the leadership team also took secret meetings with regulators in certain cities to encourage them to go after the competition such as Lyft.”', 'Contradictory Figures: Lessons From Uber’s Rise', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'contradictory-figures-lessons-from-ubers-rise', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:14:43', '2019-11-04 07:14:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2007', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2008, 1, '2019-10-25 05:01:51', '2019-10-25 05:01:51', 'Ben Carlson, another star commentator from the fabulous Ritholtz stable, discusses one of the best business books he has read for a long time - Mike Isaac’s book ‘Super Pumped: The Battle For Uber’.\r\nCarlson says that there are no neat black & white takeaways from Uber’s rise; instead there a good, bad and ugly takeaways.\r\nLesson 1 – Tech can clearly & obviously supercharge businesses: “Garrett Camp came up with the idea for Uber in 2008 because the transportation system in the Bay Area was so subpar. Travis Kalanick took that idea and ran with it, creating a business out of thin air that’s now worth more than $50 billion.\r\nA little over 10 years after that idea was hatched, Uber is a company that operates worldwide, using a process that has disrupted the transportation business in an obscenely short amount of time.”\r\nLesson 2 – There is tons of cheap VC money sloshing around in America – The book details “…an Uber company-wide party in Las Vegas to celebrate hitting the $1 billion mark in gross bookings. Thousands of employees were flown to Vegas for an entire week of celebration, drinking, and debauchery. There were open bars everywhere, parties at clubs, and a grand finale performance by Beyonce…” Queen B was paid $6m in restricted stock units for her performance that night even as her husband – a megastar in his own right – sat and watched the wild party.\r\nLesson 3 – Most boards in Silicon Valley (and perhaps most boards everywhere) are useless: The book has a killer anecdote to drive home this point: “Kalanick had a standing meeting with Apple’s Tim Cook and Eddie Cue because the App Store was so important to the Uber’s business model. Cue asked Kalanick why Uber took an investment from Google and placed their chief legal officer on the board, considering both Uber and Google are in the self-driving car space.\r\nKalanick told them bluntly: “The board is irrelevant,” Kalanick said, waving them off of the idea. “I hand pick all of these guys. They do what I tell them, and the way I’ve structured things, I do what I want.”\r\nCue was taken aback. Many founders at least performed a sense of humility in public—a strategic modesty that Kalanick clearly lacked.”\r\nLesson 4 – Most companies cut corners to rise to the top: “Uber…pushed these grey areas to the extreme, going so far as spying on government officials, tracking their digital lives and even following them to their houses to keep tabs on them.\r\nThe most egregious example Isaac used was a line of code called Greyball, which allowed the company to identify people who posed a threat to the company from a regulation perspective when they downloaded the Uber app.\r\nKalanick and the leadership team also took secret meetings with regulators in certain cities to encourage them to go after the competition such as Lyft.”', 'Contradictory Figures: Lessons From Uber’s Rise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2007-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:01:51', '2019-10-25 05:01:51', '', 2007, 'http://marcellus.in/2007-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2009, 1, '2019-10-06 05:02:14', '2019-10-06 05:02:14', 'The arresting piece contends that “Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.”\r\nThe article begins with several examples of how quickly authoritarian governments cave-in when faced with civil protest. It then says that civil disobedience is not only the moral way to bring about change, it is also the most effective way to bring about political change.\r\nErica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University “found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.”\r\n“Working with Maria Stephan, a researcher at the ICNC, Chenoweth performed an extensive review of the literature on civil resistance and social movements from 1900 to 2006 – a data set then corroborated with other experts in the field. They primarily considered attempts to bring about regime change. A movement was considered a success if it fully achieved its goals both within a year of its peak engagement and as a direct result of its activities. A regime change resulting from foreign military intervention would not be considered a success, for instance. A campaign was considered violent, meanwhile, if it involved bombings, kidnappings, the destruction of infrastructure – or any other physical harm to people or property.\r\n“We were trying to apply a pretty hard test to nonviolent resistance as a strategy,” Chenoweth says. (The criteria were so strict that India’s independence movement was not considered as evidence in favour of nonviolent protest in Chenoweth and Stephan’s analysis – since Britain’s dwindling military resources were considered to have been a deciding factor, even if the protests themselves were also a huge influence.)\r\nBy the end of this process, they had collected data from 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns. And their results – which were published in their book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict – were striking.\r\nOverall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.”\r\nSo why are non-violent campaigns so successful? Firstly, “nonviolent campaigns are more likely to succeed because they can recruit many more participants from a much broader demographic, which can cause severe disruption that paralyses normal urban life and the functioning of society.\r\nIn fact, of the 25 largest campaigns that they studied, 20 were nonviolent, and 14 of these were outright successes. Overall, the nonviolent campaigns attracted around four times as many participants (200,000) as the average violent campaign (50,000).”\r\nSecondly, you need surprisingly few people to bring about large scale change. “There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth – a phenomenon she has called the “3.5% rule”.\r\nThirdly, “Chenoweth points out that nonviolent protests also have fewer physical barriers to participation. You do not need to be fit and healthy to engage in a strike, whereas violent campaigns tend to lean on the support of physically fit young men. And while many forms of nonviolent protests also carry serious risks – just think of China’s response in Tiananmen Square in 1989 – Chenoweth argues that nonviolent campaigns are generally easier to discuss openly, which means that news of their occurrence can reach a wider audience. Violent movements, on the other hand, require a supply of weapons, and tend to rely on more secretive underground operations that might struggle to reach the general population.”\r\nSo if non-violent campaigns are so effective so often why do we harbour a mental image that guns &amp; bombs are needed to bring about change? It turns out that we are mentally anchored by the nonsense we are taught in school. ““So many of the histories that we tell one another focus on violence – and even if it is a total disaster, we still find a way to find victories within it,” she says. Yet we tend to ignore the success of peaceful protest, she says.\r\n“Ordinary people, all the time, are engaging in pretty heroic activities that are actually changing the way the world – and those deserve some notice and celebration as well.””', '\'The 3.5% rule: How a small minority can change the world', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-3-5-rule-how-a-small-minority-can-change-the-world', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:47:44', '2019-11-04 06:47:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2009', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2010, 1, '2019-10-25 05:03:18', '2019-10-25 05:03:18', 'The arresting piece contends that “Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.”\r\nThe article begins with several examples of how quickly authoritarian governments cave-in when faced with civil protest. It then says that civil disobedience is not only the moral way to bring about change, it is also the most effective way to bring about political change.\r\nErica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University “found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.”\r\n“Working with Maria Stephan, a researcher at the ICNC, Chenoweth performed an extensive review of the literature on civil resistance and social movements from 1900 to 2006 – a data set then corroborated with other experts in the field. They primarily considered attempts to bring about regime change. A movement was considered a success if it fully achieved its goals both within a year of its peak engagement and as a direct result of its activities. A regime change resulting from foreign military intervention would not be considered a success, for instance. A campaign was considered violent, meanwhile, if it involved bombings, kidnappings, the destruction of infrastructure – or any other physical harm to people or property.\r\n“We were trying to apply a pretty hard test to nonviolent resistance as a strategy,” Chenoweth says. (The criteria were so strict that India’s independence movement was not considered as evidence in favour of nonviolent protest in Chenoweth and Stephan’s analysis – since Britain’s dwindling military resources were considered to have been a deciding factor, even if the protests themselves were also a huge influence.)\r\nBy the end of this process, they had collected data from 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns. And their results – which were published in their book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict – were striking.\r\nOverall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.”\r\nSo why are non-violent campaigns so successful? Firstly, “nonviolent campaigns are more likely to succeed because they can recruit many more participants from a much broader demographic, which can cause severe disruption that paralyses normal urban life and the functioning of society.\r\nIn fact, of the 25 largest campaigns that they studied, 20 were nonviolent, and 14 of these were outright successes. Overall, the nonviolent campaigns attracted around four times as many participants (200,000) as the average violent campaign (50,000).”\r\nSecondly, you need surprisingly few people to bring about large scale change. “There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth – a phenomenon she has called the “3.5% rule”.\r\nThirdly, “Chenoweth points out that nonviolent protests also have fewer physical barriers to participation. You do not need to be fit and healthy to engage in a strike, whereas violent campaigns tend to lean on the support of physically fit young men. And while many forms of nonviolent protests also carry serious risks – just think of China’s response in Tiananmen Square in 1989 – Chenoweth argues that nonviolent campaigns are generally easier to discuss openly, which means that news of their occurrence can reach a wider audience. Violent movements, on the other hand, require a supply of weapons, and tend to rely on more secretive underground operations that might struggle to reach the general population.”\r\nSo if non-violent campaigns are so effective so often why do we harbour a mental image that guns & bombs are needed to bring about change? It turns out that we are mentally anchored by the nonsense we are taught in school. ““So many of the histories that we tell one another focus on violence – and even if it is a total disaster, we still find a way to find victories within it,” she says. Yet we tend to ignore the success of peaceful protest, she says.\r\n“Ordinary people, all the time, are engaging in pretty heroic activities that are actually changing the way the world – and those deserve some notice and celebration as well.””', '\'The 3.5% rule: How a small minority can change the world', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2009-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:03:18', '2019-10-25 05:03:18', '', 2009, 'http://marcellus.in/2009-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2011, 1, '2019-10-06 05:03:24', '2019-10-06 05:03:24', 'An argument in favour of automation using Artificial Intelligence replacing humans with machines for jobs that are menial is that humans will go on to devoting more time to solving the harder and more challenging problems the world is facing. However, cognitive psychology suggests that in some fields, taking away the menial jobs from humans is doing more harm than good in terms of the morale of the workers involved. The argument being most humans need easy and quick wins to keep themselves motivated to solve the harder bits. By taking away the menial chores which delivered those easy wins for workers, AI is actually creating work related stress for workers who now spend most of their time finding solutions to problems the machine couldn’t solve.\r\n“Decision making is very cognitively draining,” the author and former clinical psychologist Alice Boyes told me via email, “so it’s nice to have some tasks that provide a sense of accomplishment but just require getting it done and repeating what you know, rather than everything needing very taxing novel decision making.”\r\nThat people “need both experiences of mastery and pleasure for healthy mood,” Boyes said, is a core idea of cognitive-behavioral psychology. It’s important, she said, “to vary the difficulty of the mastery experiences, rather than having everything be super challenging.”\r\nAt Kickstarter, our robot picked off the projects that were clearly the easiest to analyze. Left for human reviewers were projects with muddier scores—particularly ones for ideas that tested the limits of our guidelines, such as projects for helmets (Kickstarter prohibits medical devices) or overly optimistic gadgets (Kickstarter also banned hyperrealistic 3-D renderings of technology that didn’t exist yet). Staffers who had been used to reviewing slam-dunk proposals were no longer seeing them. Their jobs weren’t quite as enjoyable as they had been.\r\nThis problem is cropping up at other companies, too. For example, the tech journalist Kara Swisher reported last year that YouTube content-moderation staff, once used to reviewing clips featuring cute animals, are now frustrated by the difficult ethics decisions that dominate their work. She wrote that “their jobs used to be about wrangling cat videos and now they had degenerated into a daily hell of ethics debates about the fate of humanity.”\r\nThe best-designed machine-learning systems are the ones that can pass on the unclear or low-confidence decisions and redirect them to humans. But when humans are looking only at the difficult, muddiest, most intractable cases, not only will morale suffer, but human workers’ chances of making the “right” decision will drop as well. The frustration will only be compounded when their accuracy, as humans, is compared with that of a robot, which will continue to pick off the easiest work.”', 'AI Is Coming for Your Favorite Menial Tasks', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ai-is-coming-for-your-favorite-menial-tasks', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:46:36', '2019-11-04 06:46:36', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2011', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2012, 1, '2019-10-25 05:04:46', '2019-10-25 05:04:46', 'An argument in favour of automation using Artificial Intelligence replacing humans with machines for jobs that are menial is that humans will go on to devoting more time to solving the harder and more challenging problems the world is facing. However, cognitive psychology suggests that in some fields, taking away the menial jobs from humans is doing more harm than good in terms of the morale of the workers involved. The argument being most humans need easy and quick wins to keep themselves motivated to solve the harder bits. By taking away the menial chores which delivered those easy wins for workers, AI is actually creating work related stress for workers who now spend most of their time finding solutions to problems the machine couldn’t solve.\r\n“Decision making is very cognitively draining,” the author and former clinical psychologist Alice Boyes told me via email, “so it’s nice to have some tasks that provide a sense of accomplishment but just require getting it done and repeating what you know, rather than everything needing very taxing novel decision making.”\r\nThat people “need both experiences of mastery and pleasure for healthy mood,” Boyes said, is a core idea of cognitive-behavioral psychology. It’s important, she said, “to vary the difficulty of the mastery experiences, rather than having everything be super challenging.”\r\nAt Kickstarter, our robot picked off the projects that were clearly the easiest to analyze. Left for human reviewers were projects with muddier scores—particularly ones for ideas that tested the limits of our guidelines, such as projects for helmets (Kickstarter prohibits medical devices) or overly optimistic gadgets (Kickstarter also banned hyperrealistic 3-D renderings of technology that didn’t exist yet). Staffers who had been used to reviewing slam-dunk proposals were no longer seeing them. Their jobs weren’t quite as enjoyable as they had been.\r\nThis problem is cropping up at other companies, too. For example, the tech journalist Kara Swisher reported last year that YouTube content-moderation staff, once used to reviewing clips featuring cute animals, are now frustrated by the difficult ethics decisions that dominate their work. She wrote that “their jobs used to be about wrangling cat videos and now they had degenerated into a daily hell of ethics debates about the fate of humanity.”\r\nThe best-designed machine-learning systems are the ones that can pass on the unclear or low-confidence decisions and redirect them to humans. But when humans are looking only at the difficult, muddiest, most intractable cases, not only will morale suffer, but human workers’ chances of making the “right” decision will drop as well. The frustration will only be compounded when their accuracy, as humans, is compared with that of a robot, which will continue to pick off the easiest work.”', 'AI Is Coming for Your Favorite Menial Tasks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2011-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:04:46', '2019-10-25 05:04:46', '', 2011, 'http://marcellus.in/2011-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2013, 1, '2019-10-20 05:05:58', '2019-10-20 05:05:58', 'The Economist – normally a champion of full on free market capitalism – has a heart warming story regarding a British retailer which has succeeded by treating its staff well. Julian Richer has built a successful high-street chain of 52 stores, named Richer Sounds. “…the 60-year-old Mr Richer is an atypical entrepreneur. That became clear in May when he announced he was selling a majority stake in the company to a trust owned by the staff, and remitting around 40% of the proceeds in the form of a cash bonus to colleagues. For every year of service, they received £1,000 ($1,230). His gesture reflected the management philosophy he has developed over his 40-year business career.”\r\nMr Richer claims to have been inspired by that legendary management tome from the 1980s, “In Search of Excellence” by Tom Peters and Robert Waterman. “The top-performing companies described in the book had two common features, Mr Richer noticed: they treated both customers and their employees well.\r\nIn “The Ethical Capitalist”, one of his two books on management, Mr Richer writes that “organisations that create a culture based on fairness, honesty and respect reap the rewards.” They attract motivated staff “who are there for the long haul”. High staff turnover, he says, is a sign that something is fundamentally wrong. And he cites his firm’s turnover rate of 11% a year, compared with an industry average of 25%, as a sign of success. Richer Sounds also tries to promote from within. Each of the other nine board members has risen through the ranks.”\r\nThat’s not all. Mr Richer does a range of other things to look after his people: “How does he keep staff loyal? One way is to survey morale every week. Employees rate it, anonymously, on a ten-point scale. Store managers report the average and the lowest score. If there is a two, the company will investigate.\r\nAnother tactic is to ensure staff have the time to learn about the latest equipment in stock. The shops open at noon so that there is time for staff training without dragging people out of bed unreasonably early… if an employee has to take a telephone call on their day off, they get a £20 hassle bonus.\r\n…Workers can stay at one of the group’s holiday homes; over 70% make use of this perk once a year. The only charge they face is £10 per night per adult, and £5 per child. The British authorities treats such holidays as a taxable benefit but the company covers this cost as well.\r\nMr Richer…does not like high-pressure sales tactics, preferring repeat buyers; bonuses are based on surveys of shoppers’ satisfaction as well as sales. On top of the bonus, workers get a monthly profit share, based on each store’s performance, and an annual share of the group profit.”\r\n ', 'From rags to richer', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'from-rags-to-richer', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:37:26', '2019-11-01 12:37:26', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2013', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2014, 1, '2019-10-25 05:09:05', '2019-10-25 05:09:05', 'The Economist – normally a champion of full on free market capitalism – has a heart warming story regarding a British retailer which has succeeded by treating its staff well. Julian Richer has built a successful high-street chain of 52 stores, named Richer Sounds. “…the 60-year-old Mr Richer is an atypical entrepreneur. That became clear in May when he announced he was selling a majority stake in the company to a trust owned by the staff, and remitting around 40% of the proceeds in the form of a cash bonus to colleagues. For every year of service, they received £1,000 ($1,230). His gesture reflected the management philosophy he has developed over his 40-year business career.”\r\nMr Richer claims to have been inspired by that legendary management tome from the 1980s, “In Search of Excellence” by Tom Peters and Robert Waterman. “The top-performing companies described in the book had two common features, Mr Richer noticed: they treated both customers and their employees well.\r\nIn “The Ethical Capitalist”, one of his two books on management, Mr Richer writes that “organisations that create a culture based on fairness, honesty and respect reap the rewards.” They attract motivated staff “who are there for the long haul”. High staff turnover, he says, is a sign that something is fundamentally wrong. And he cites his firm’s turnover rate of 11% a year, compared with an industry average of 25%, as a sign of success. Richer Sounds also tries to promote from within. Each of the other nine board members has risen through the ranks.”\r\nThat’s not all. Mr Richer does a range of other things to look after his people: “How does he keep staff loyal? One way is to survey morale every week. Employees rate it, anonymously, on a ten-point scale. Store managers report the average and the lowest score. If there is a two, the company will investigate.\r\nAnother tactic is to ensure staff have the time to learn about the latest equipment in stock. The shops open at noon so that there is time for staff training without dragging people out of bed unreasonably early… if an employee has to take a telephone call on their day off, they get a £20 hassle bonus.\r\n…Workers can stay at one of the group’s holiday homes; over 70% make use of this perk once a year. The only charge they face is £10 per night per adult, and £5 per child. The British authorities treats such holidays as a taxable benefit but the company covers this cost as well.\r\nMr Richer…does not like high-pressure sales tactics, preferring repeat buyers; bonuses are based on surveys of shoppers’ satisfaction as well as sales. On top of the bonus, workers get a monthly profit share, based on each store’s performance, and an annual share of the group profit.”\r\n ', 'From rags to richer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2013-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:09:05', '2019-10-25 05:09:05', '', 2013, 'http://marcellus.in/2013-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2015, 1, '2019-10-20 05:09:12', '2019-10-20 05:09:12', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'salesforce-founder-marc-benioff-what-business-school-never-taught-me', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:35:48', '2019-11-01 12:35:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2015', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2016, 1, '2019-10-25 05:10:43', '2019-10-25 05:10:43', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:10:43', '2019-10-25 05:10:43', '', 2015, 'http://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2017, 1, '2019-10-20 05:11:05', '2019-10-20 05:11:05', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\r\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\r\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\r\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\r\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\r\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-tycoons-behind-chinas-gadget-factories-boom-prepare-to-pivot', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:28:43', '2019-11-01 12:28:43', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2017', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2018, 1, '2019-10-25 05:12:43', '2019-10-25 05:12:43', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\r\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\r\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\r\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\r\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\r\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:12:43', '2019-10-25 05:12:43', '', 2017, 'http://marcellus.in/2017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2019, 1, '2019-10-20 05:12:53', '2019-10-20 05:12:53', 'As an ever increasing number of people across the world take to running citing benefits varying from the physical to the metaphysical, there is more inspiration coming from the field of long distance running. In an epic run last weekend, the current marathon world champion and world record holder Eliud Kipchoge broke the two-hour barrier by a handsome 20 seconds. Whilst this wasn’t a regular race and hence the record may not get official recognition, the feat deserves attention as this piece in the NYT highlights that human endeavour combined with science and technology can break barriers hitherto considered unsurpassable.\r\n“…It’s difficult to convey just how fast his time was. Mr. Kipchoge just ran a mile in 4 minutes and 33 seconds — 26 times. He ran at a pace of 13 miles per hour, for two hours in a row. And when it got tough toward the end, he did what he always does: He smiled.\r\nMr. Kipchoge’s performance has echoes of breaking the 4-minute-mile barrier in the 1950s. It’s not that we didn’t think humans would get here — scientific barriers based on round figures are fundamentally arbitrary after all. It’s that we didn’t realize it would be so soon. At the first Olympic marathon in 1896, on a shorter course than the modern marathon, only the winner finished in under three hours. As recently as last year, one expert predicted the two-hour mark wouldn’t be broken until 2028 or 2029.\r\nSo what made it possible? It’s not so different from when Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay summited Everest for the first time in 1953, aided by supplementary oxygen. In both cases, the requirements were extraordinary determination, outstanding physical condition — and a heavy dose of science.\r\nBut with science comes controversy. For Mr. Kipchoge, the run involved a few tricks that purists don’t tend to buy — and that violate enough rules to make it ineligible to be considered a “real” world record. (With his time of 2:01:39 at the Berlin Marathon last year, Mr. Kipchoge holds that record anyway.)\r\nHe ran with a dream team of 41 pacers from around the world, including the American Olympic medalists Matthew Centrowitz and Bernard Lagat, and the three Ingebrigtsen brothers from Norway. They were deployed by sports scientists who adapted the same technological drafting tricks used by cyclists. Five runners formed a V-shape ahead of Mr. Kipchoge, reducing drag, and two runners followed directly behind to push him forward. There was also a pace car that drove 15 meters in front of everyone, casting a laser line on the road to keep them on track.\r\nTo reap the benefits, Mr. Kipchoge had to stay exactly in the center of the formation, to the centimeter. The team traded members off every five kilometers, and he stayed under a two-hour pace for almost the entire time. They gave way for him to pass as he closed in on the finish line, fanning out into a line behind him. And then they started absolutely freaking out.\r\nWhen he finished, Mr. Kipchoge compared what he’d just accomplished to man walking on the moon. It’s an apt analogy. Rather than showing what humanity is naturally capable of, his performance indicates what we can achieve with a boost from technology. For instance, Mr. Kipchoge wore an unreleased version of Nike’s special, and controversial, speed shoes, which were designed to give a significant edge to anyone racing in them. (Like a lot of runners, I have logged my fastest races in older versions of these shoes.) The shoes have enormous, spongy, springy soles. (Remember “barefoot running”? That era is over). If this performance was like walking on the moon, he was racing in the terrestrial equivalent of moon shoes.”', 'How Did Eliud Kipchoge Break the Marathon Record So Soon?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-did-eliud-kipchoge-break-the-marathon-record-so-soon', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:12:46', '2019-10-25 09:12:46', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2019', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2020, 1, '2019-10-25 05:17:16', '2019-10-25 05:17:16', 'As an ever increasing number of people across the world take to running citing benefits varying from the physical to the metaphysical, there is more inspiration coming from the field of long distance running. In an epic run last weekend, the current marathon world champion and world record holder Eliud Kipchoge broke the two-hour barrier by a handsome 20 seconds. Whilst this wasn’t a regular race and hence the record may not get official recognition, the feat deserves attention as this piece in the NYT highlights that human endeavour combined with science and technology can break barriers hitherto considered unsurpassable.\r\n“…It’s difficult to convey just how fast his time was. Mr. Kipchoge just ran a mile in 4 minutes and 33 seconds — 26 times. He ran at a pace of 13 miles per hour, for two hours in a row. And when it got tough toward the end, he did what he always does: He smiled.\r\nMr. Kipchoge’s performance has echoes of breaking the 4-minute-mile barrier in the 1950s. It’s not that we didn’t think humans would get here — scientific barriers based on round figures are fundamentally arbitrary after all. It’s that we didn’t realize it would be so soon. At the first Olympic marathon in 1896, on a shorter course than the modern marathon, only the winner finished in under three hours. As recently as last year, one expert predicted the two-hour mark wouldn’t be broken until 2028 or 2029.\r\nSo what made it possible? It’s not so different from when Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay summited Everest for the first time in 1953, aided by supplementary oxygen. In both cases, the requirements were extraordinary determination, outstanding physical condition — and a heavy dose of science.\r\nBut with science comes controversy. For Mr. Kipchoge, the run involved a few tricks that purists don’t tend to buy — and that violate enough rules to make it ineligible to be considered a “real” world record. (With his time of 2:01:39 at the Berlin Marathon last year, Mr. Kipchoge holds that record anyway.)\r\nHe ran with a dream team of 41 pacers from around the world, including the American Olympic medalists Matthew Centrowitz and Bernard Lagat, and the three Ingebrigtsen brothers from Norway. They were deployed by sports scientists who adapted the same technological drafting tricks used by cyclists. Five runners formed a V-shape ahead of Mr. Kipchoge, reducing drag, and two runners followed directly behind to push him forward. There was also a pace car that drove 15 meters in front of everyone, casting a laser line on the road to keep them on track.\r\nTo reap the benefits, Mr. Kipchoge had to stay exactly in the center of the formation, to the centimeter. The team traded members off every five kilometers, and he stayed under a two-hour pace for almost the entire time. They gave way for him to pass as he closed in on the finish line, fanning out into a line behind him. And then they started absolutely freaking out.\r\nWhen he finished, Mr. Kipchoge compared what he’d just accomplished to man walking on the moon. It’s an apt analogy. Rather than showing what humanity is naturally capable of, his performance indicates what we can achieve with a boost from technology. For instance, Mr. Kipchoge wore an unreleased version of Nike’s special, and controversial, speed shoes, which were designed to give a significant edge to anyone racing in them. (Like a lot of runners, I have logged my fastest races in older versions of these shoes.) The shoes have enormous, spongy, springy soles. (Remember “barefoot running”? That era is over). If this performance was like walking on the moon, he was racing in the terrestrial equivalent of moon shoes.”', 'How Did Eliud Kipchoge Break the Marathon Record So Soon?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2019-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:17:16', '2019-10-25 05:17:16', '', 2019, 'http://marcellus.in/2019-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2021, 1, '2019-10-20 05:17:21', '2019-10-20 05:17:21', 'We alluded to Bangalore’s traffic congestion problem in last week’s 3L-3S but it is the city’s ability to deal with the challenges around water scarcity which will likely shape its future. Mridula Ramesh, who is the founder of the Sundaram Climate Institute, and author of The Climate Solution — India\'s Climate Crisis and What We Can Do About It, emphasises the point about how water management or the lack of it can cause cities to rise and fall respectively, citing the example of a 2500yr old city discovered recently in South India.\r\n“Whoever they were, the Keeladians were masters at managing water. Water-management infrastructure predominated in the finds.\r\nUntil now, at least three kinds of channels have been discovered: one was a shallow, broad channel — about half a metre across, a few inches in height and about 6 metres thus far excavated in length — lined with shards of broken terracotta roof tiles. Nearby there was a beautifully crafted terracotta pipe which appeared to feed into a strategically placed pot, which in turn was placed on top of another pot. The last type of channel was a closed channel, gently curved, with the curved portion buttressed with additional support — was this because the liquid was pressurised? This channel ran close to a small, square, brick-lined tank at the site.\r\nThe different types of channels allude to different qualities of water being transported — the flat, broad, open channel could have been used to carry fresh water perhaps, where smell was not a concern. One possibility is that the closed channels were used to carry away smellier liquids — sewage or effluent, maybe. During an earlier dig in Keeladi, archaeologists unearthed four parallel water channels — which implied the movement of a lot of water — far more than a single household could use. And the sheer numbers of channels discovered now — there were several crisscrossing a 300 sq mtr stretch — suggest that this was an intense water-using site. The Keeladians were moving water strategically from place to place for some function.\r\n…one interesting find was the ring wells, several of which were found at the site. Essentially, these wells used terracotta rings inside a shaft to prevent the collapse of the sides. These ringwells, as per Dr Pande, could have been used as either draw wells or soak pits, and were widely found across in India in the 4th-5th centuries BCE. Ring wells as draw wells are a clever idea when water was available close below the surface — in this case, about 5-10 feet below the surface. One explanation for water at such shallow depths is that the river Vaigai ran far closer to Keeladi 2,500 years ago.\r\n….One suggestion (refuted by others, of course!) has been that they share roots with the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC). The IVC declined a good thousand years-plus before the thus-far dated Keeladi site — also laid low by the lack of water.\r\n….Both the Indus Valley residents and the Keeladians were masters at water management. Moving to the present, water is the foundation of our prosperity as it was for the Keeladians. We use it in our factories today, much like they did, even as we discover the power of recycling it. We use wells like their ringwells — deeper and more powerful, to be sure, but ours are reaching their limits and coming up dry, like theirs did before they perished. Today, as the peripheries of our cities experience a seasonal ‘Day Zero’ and our water future looks to become decidedly more temperamental, the Keeladi site almost serves as a ‘Back to the Future’ moment for our cities: Manage and cherish your water or perish.”', 'Findings from Keeladi excavation site have a clear message for modern cities: Cherish your water, or perish', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'findings-from-keeladi-excavation-site-have-a-clear-message-for-modern-cities-cherish-your-water-or-perish', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:12:13', '2019-10-25 09:12:13', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2021', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2022, 1, '2019-10-25 05:18:39', '2019-10-25 05:18:39', 'We alluded to Bangalore’s traffic congestion problem in last week’s 3L-3S but it is the city’s ability to deal with the challenges around water scarcity which will likely shape its future. Mridula Ramesh, who is the founder of the Sundaram Climate Institute, and author of The Climate Solution — India\'s Climate Crisis and What We Can Do About It, emphasises the point about how water management or the lack of it can cause cities to rise and fall respectively, citing the example of a 2500yr old city discovered recently in South India.\r\n“Whoever they were, the Keeladians were masters at managing water. Water-management infrastructure predominated in the finds.\r\nUntil now, at least three kinds of channels have been discovered: one was a shallow, broad channel — about half a metre across, a few inches in height and about 6 metres thus far excavated in length — lined with shards of broken terracotta roof tiles. Nearby there was a beautifully crafted terracotta pipe which appeared to feed into a strategically placed pot, which in turn was placed on top of another pot. The last type of channel was a closed channel, gently curved, with the curved portion buttressed with additional support — was this because the liquid was pressurised? This channel ran close to a small, square, brick-lined tank at the site.\r\nThe different types of channels allude to different qualities of water being transported — the flat, broad, open channel could have been used to carry fresh water perhaps, where smell was not a concern. One possibility is that the closed channels were used to carry away smellier liquids — sewage or effluent, maybe. During an earlier dig in Keeladi, archaeologists unearthed four parallel water channels — which implied the movement of a lot of water — far more than a single household could use. And the sheer numbers of channels discovered now — there were several crisscrossing a 300 sq mtr stretch — suggest that this was an intense water-using site. The Keeladians were moving water strategically from place to place for some function.\r\n…one interesting find was the ring wells, several of which were found at the site. Essentially, these wells used terracotta rings inside a shaft to prevent the collapse of the sides. These ringwells, as per Dr Pande, could have been used as either draw wells or soak pits, and were widely found across in India in the 4th-5th centuries BCE. Ring wells as draw wells are a clever idea when water was available close below the surface — in this case, about 5-10 feet below the surface. One explanation for water at such shallow depths is that the river Vaigai ran far closer to Keeladi 2,500 years ago.\r\n….One suggestion (refuted by others, of course!) has been that they share roots with the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC). The IVC declined a good thousand years-plus before the thus-far dated Keeladi site — also laid low by the lack of water.\r\n….Both the Indus Valley residents and the Keeladians were masters at water management. Moving to the present, water is the foundation of our prosperity as it was for the Keeladians. We use it in our factories today, much like they did, even as we discover the power of recycling it. We use wells like their ringwells — deeper and more powerful, to be sure, but ours are reaching their limits and coming up dry, like theirs did before they perished. Today, as the peripheries of our cities experience a seasonal ‘Day Zero’ and our water future looks to become decidedly more temperamental, the Keeladi site almost serves as a ‘Back to the Future’ moment for our cities: Manage and cherish your water or perish.”', 'Findings from Keeladi excavation site have a clear message for modern cities: Cherish your water, or perish', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2021-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:18:39', '2019-10-25 05:18:39', '', 2021, 'http://marcellus.in/2021-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2023, 1, '2019-10-20 05:18:48', '2019-10-20 05:18:48', 'In his book Factfulness, Dr Hans Rosling remarked that the sanitary pads market remained the world’s largest untapped business opportunity, which could also make the biggest difference to humanity by improving women’s menstrual health, given the huge underpenetration of this product, especially in the third world. The issue got some much required publicity in India last year on the back of the success of a Bollywood Movie Padman, which was inspired by a South Indian social entrepreneur Arunachalam Muruganantham who introduced low cost sanitary pads. Earlier this year, the government of India’s “Bureau of Pharma Public Sector Undertakings of India (BPPI)” launched sanitary pads priced at Re 1, thereby fulfilling the BJP’s promise from its election manifesto. The article talks about how even in the suburbs of the national capital, sales have shot up on the back of such affordable pricing, highlighting the significant under-penetration of an essential product. However, the article also alludes to quality issues with the product suggesting Dr Rosling’s opportunity remains open for a private sector for-profit initiative to deliver a cost effective yet quality solution to women in the poorest parts of the world.\r\n“Throughout the day, those dropping in at the Jan Aushadhi medical store in Shakarpur, East Delhi, can barely disguise their surprise. Among them Alvira Mukherjee, a teacher at Vivekananda College in Vivek Vihar, Delhi, who stops over on way back home to Laxmi Nagar from college. So, instead of one pack of Suvidha oxo-biodegradable sanitary pads, Mukherjee, 27, decides to buy two.\r\n….Yasmita Arora, the owner of the Shakarpur Jan Aushadhi store, says customers, cutting across age, gender and class, have been buying the pads for themselves, their wives and daughters or relatives. While earlier she would sell around 500 of the Rs 10 pads per week, she has been selling as many in two days now, Arora says.\r\nIn one corner of Arora’s shop, 45-year-old Anju, with a dupatta wrapped around her head, has been waiting for some time, throwing anxious glances at the three male customers. Arora, realising what the matter was, seeks her out with a questioning glance, and Anju lifts two fingers and mouths the word “packet”.\r\nWhile cotton swabs, band-aids and toothbrushes lie on top of the counter, and shampoos and diapers hang from a rod above, Arora takes out the Suvidha packs from inside a cabinet.\r\nAnju, who lives nearby, says she and her 24-year-old daughter have been using Suvidha for a year. “When I heard the pads had become cheaper, I bought some extra packets for my relatives,” she says. As she leaves, some of the men around purchase a packet of Suvidha for family members to try.”', '‘Only Re 1’: Customers line up for sanitary pads as price slashed at Jan Aushadhi stores', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'only-re-1-customers-line-up-for-sanitary-pads-as-price-slashed-at-jan-aushadhi-stores', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:11:03', '2019-10-25 09:11:03', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2023', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2024, 1, '2019-10-25 05:19:36', '2019-10-25 05:19:36', 'In his book Factfulness, Dr Hans Rosling remarked that the sanitary pads market remained the world’s largest untapped business opportunity, which could also make the biggest difference to humanity by improving women’s menstrual health, given the huge underpenetration of this product, especially in the third world. The issue got some much required publicity in India last year on the back of the success of a Bollywood Movie Padman, which was inspired by a South Indian social entrepreneur Arunachalam Muruganantham who introduced low cost sanitary pads. Earlier this year, the government of India’s “Bureau of Pharma Public Sector Undertakings of India (BPPI)” launched sanitary pads priced at Re 1, thereby fulfilling the BJP’s promise from its election manifesto. The article talks about how even in the suburbs of the national capital, sales have shot up on the back of such affordable pricing, highlighting the significant under-penetration of an essential product. However, the article also alludes to quality issues with the product suggesting Dr Rosling’s opportunity remains open for a private sector for-profit initiative to deliver a cost effective yet quality solution to women in the poorest parts of the world.\r\n“Throughout the day, those dropping in at the Jan Aushadhi medical store in Shakarpur, East Delhi, can barely disguise their surprise. Among them Alvira Mukherjee, a teacher at Vivekananda College in Vivek Vihar, Delhi, who stops over on way back home to Laxmi Nagar from college. So, instead of one pack of Suvidha oxo-biodegradable sanitary pads, Mukherjee, 27, decides to buy two.\r\n….Yasmita Arora, the owner of the Shakarpur Jan Aushadhi store, says customers, cutting across age, gender and class, have been buying the pads for themselves, their wives and daughters or relatives. While earlier she would sell around 500 of the Rs 10 pads per week, she has been selling as many in two days now, Arora says.\r\nIn one corner of Arora’s shop, 45-year-old Anju, with a dupatta wrapped around her head, has been waiting for some time, throwing anxious glances at the three male customers. Arora, realising what the matter was, seeks her out with a questioning glance, and Anju lifts two fingers and mouths the word “packet”.\r\nWhile cotton swabs, band-aids and toothbrushes lie on top of the counter, and shampoos and diapers hang from a rod above, Arora takes out the Suvidha packs from inside a cabinet.\r\nAnju, who lives nearby, says she and her 24-year-old daughter have been using Suvidha for a year. “When I heard the pads had become cheaper, I bought some extra packets for my relatives,” she says. As she leaves, some of the men around purchase a packet of Suvidha for family members to try.”', '‘Only Re 1’: Customers line up for sanitary pads as price slashed at Jan Aushadhi stores', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2023-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 05:19:36', '2019-10-25 05:19:36', '', 2023, 'http://marcellus.in/2023-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2027, 1, '2019-10-25 07:21:53', '2019-10-25 07:21:53', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\r\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\r\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\r\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\r\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\r\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here:  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1934-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 07:21:53', '2019-10-25 07:21:53', '', 1934, 'http://marcellus.in/1934-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2028, 1, '2019-10-25 07:27:47', '2019-10-25 07:27:47', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=07f8cfabed&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D07f8cfabed%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEc9ZoCABBf-RKn1WErntFrSTI_vA\">here’s</a> a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 07:27:47', '2019-10-25 07:27:47', '', 1936, 'http://marcellus.in/1936-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2031, 1, '2019-10-25 08:30:46', '2019-10-25 08:30:46', 'As we approach the next US presidential elections, the chorus against big corporate will only get louder. Hence, it is only logical that the largest corporate – Amazon becomes front and centre of this outrage. Plenty has been written about Amazon’s ‘Day One’ and ‘Flywheel’ approach to business which has made it a relentless growth machine (apparently Bezos did consider naming the company Relentless in 1995) and the public outcry against Amazon’s lack of empathy with employees and a bullying attitude towards the state. But in this New Yorker piece, Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer winning journalist and the author of the delightful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=482420e539&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D482420e539%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0w2teu4U5X_W3PotqlVnQ6ZijDA\">‘The Power of Habit’</a>, gives a thoroughly researched and well balanced take on these two polarised views on the company. In true Duhigg style, the piece has plenty of anecdotes and details that can help build a clearer perspective.\r\n<em>“Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia, said, “Amazon is a microeconomist’s wet dream. If you’re a consumer, it’s perfect for maximizing the efficiency of finding what you want and getting it as cheap and fast as possible. But, the thing is, most of us aren’t just consumers. We’re also producers, or manufacturers, or employees, or we live in cities where retailers have gone out of business because they can’t compete with Amazon, and so Amazon kind of pits us against ourselves.”</em>\r\n<em>…More than a hundred thousand people work at Amazon’s fulfillment centers, and nearly everything they do is digitally tracked and evaluated, meaning that if someone falls behind—even for just a few minutes—it can be grounds for reprimand. Many employees carry handheld scanners that deliver a constant stream of instructions, such as a countdown clock detailing how many seconds remain until the next item must be plucked from a shelf. Workers can walk more than fifteen miles a day, and their breaks, including trips to the bathroom, are brief and closely measured. A company document explains, “Amazon’s system tracks the rates of each individual associate’s productivity and automatically generates any warnings or terminations regarding quality of productivity without input from supervisors.” A former warehouse employee told me that she knew of people who got fired largely “because they were too old, or their knees started acting up, or they just had a bad week.” She added, “Managers are always vague about what will get you fired, which creates this paranoia.” Employees, she said, sometimes ask questions about “what exactly will get them fired, and the responses are so vague that you basically know that if you’re not constantly moving, you’re probably gone.” Employees line up at vending machines that dispense free over-the-counter painkillers. For years, some Amazon warehouses lacked sufficient air-conditioning; this changed only after reports emerged, in 2011, of workers passing out and requiring emergency medical treatment for heat-related problems.</em>\r\n<em>…Many Amazon executives have become defensive about the fact that even centrist politicians like Joe Biden see the company as a symbol of capitalism gone awry. (On Twitter, Biden recently said of Amazon, “No company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters and teachers.”) Jeff Wilke, one of Bezos’s top lieutenants, told me that Amazon “tries to be a good corporate citizen,” and added, “We’ve built a for-profit enterprise that is improving the lives of customers and taking great care of employees. There’s a lot to be proud of.” The company, he said, has committed to spending seven hundred million dollars to train its workers in such subjects as coding and robotics.</em>\r\n<em>…One senior Amazon executive said of its warehouses, “It’s a hard economy for people without college degrees right now. We can’t run a philanthropy, but we’re trying to be the best of those bad kinds of jobs.” Another top executive suggested that Amazon was merely a cog in the American economic machine—and inevitably reflected how contemporary inequality had created winners and losers. “We’re doing what we can,” he said. “But ultimately this is a problem only the government can really solve—by changing how the economy works.”</em>\r\n<em>….Amazon has always been unabashed about being a cutthroat competitor. When the company started, in 1995, with fewer than a dozen employees, Bezos considered naming it Relentless. (The company still owns the URL for <a href=\"http://relentless.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://relentless.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjrAUYRaQgpFhUmkjh_W937T3GEw\">relentless.com</a>—it redirects you to Amazon.com.) Amazonians know that outsiders want them to change, but listening to outsiders is not one of the Leadership Principles. One executive told me, with barely suppressed resentment, “What has made us great for so long is suddenly being seen as something we ought to be ashamed of!”</em>\r\n<em>…Amazon is a process company. Last year, it collected a hundred and twenty-two billion dollars from online retail sales, and another forty-two billion by helping other firms sell and ship their own goods. The company collected twenty-six billion dollars from its Web-services division, which has little to do with selling things to consumers, and fourteen billion more from people who sign up for such subscription services as Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited. Amazon is estimated to have taken in hundreds of millions of dollars from selling the Echo. Seventeen billion came from sales at such brick-and-mortar stores as Whole Foods. And then there’s ten billion from ad sales and other activities too numerous to list in financial filings. No other tech company does as many unrelated things, on such a scale, as Amazon.</em>\r\n<em>…with the rise of Amazon, the give-and-take that has long undergirded the retail economy has become lopsided in a titan’s favor. “Capitalism is supposed to be a system of checks and balances,” he said. “It’s a marketplace where everyone haggles until we’re all basically satisfied, and it works because you can always threaten to walk away if you don’t get a fair deal. But when there’s only one marketplace, and it’s impossible to walk away, everything is out of balance. Amazon owns the marketplace. They can do whatever they want. That’s not capitalism. That’s piracy.”</em>', 'Is Amazon Unstoppable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1938-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:30:46', '2019-10-25 08:30:46', '', 1938, 'http://marcellus.in/1938-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2034, 1, '2019-10-25 08:35:58', '2019-10-25 08:35:58', 'Behaviours of entire generations such as that of the baby boomers and the millienials and their influence on the economy has been a matter of interest for policy makers. But now, it seems like policy makers are delving deeper on this subject. Christopher Severen at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has analysed the behaviour of people born in 1964 when it comes to car ownership and usage, which is distinctly different (averse) from the generation preceeding or following them. Severen attributes this aversion to the oil price spike in 1979, a time when these people would be coming of age and learning to drive.\r\n<em>The economists analyzed millions of government survey responses from the 1960s through the 2010s and found it wasn’t just the Iran oil crisis. Gas prices left scars whenever and wherever they spiked throughout that period.</em>\r\n<em>If inflation-adjusted gas prices doubled while someone was learning to drive, they found, that person would be less likely to drive to work later on, and would drive an average of 900 to 1,100 fewer miles each year as adults. They are also less likely to own gas-guzzling light trucks and more likely to take public transit.</em>\r\n<em>“We find that pretty surprising,” Severen said. “In the U.S. most people drive to work and not much has budged that over the past few decades.”</em>\r\n<em>Drivers are only vulnerable to this level of scarring during that narrow slice of their teenage years when they’re just learning to drive. When prices jump, scars don’t appear in folks who were younger than 15 or older than 18. In some analyses, the researchers shifted the window to fit each state’s driving-age requirements.</em>\r\n<em>“You develop a particular taste for driving from this formative window of when you’re roughly 15 to 18, and that’s influenced by gas-price volatility during that period,\" Severen said. \"People who experience these large shocks have a lower taste for driving.”</em>', 'An economic crisis in your teens can alter your behaviour for life, economists find', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1943-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:35:58', '2019-10-25 08:35:58', '', 1943, 'http://marcellus.in/1943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2035, 1, '2019-10-25 08:36:24', '2019-10-25 08:36:24', 'Behaviours of entire generations such as that of the baby boomers and the millienials and their influence on the economy has been a matter of interest for policy makers. But now, it seems like policy makers are delving deeper on this subject. Christopher Severen at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has analysed the behaviour of people born in 1964 when it comes to car ownership and usage, which is distinctly different (averse) from the generation preceeding or following them. Severen attributes this aversion to the oil price spike in 1979, a time when these people would be coming of age and learning to drive.\r\n<em>The economists analyzed millions of government survey responses from the 1960s through the 2010s and found it wasn’t just the Iran oil crisis. Gas prices left scars whenever and wherever they spiked throughout that period.</em>\r\n<em>If inflation-adjusted gas prices doubled while someone was learning to drive, they found, that person would be less likely to drive to work later on, and would drive an average of 900 to 1,100 fewer miles each year as adults. They are also less likely to own gas-guzzling light trucks and more likely to take public transit.</em>\r\n<em>“We find that pretty surprising,” Severen said. “In the U.S. most people drive to work and not much has budged that over the past few decades.”</em>\r\n<em>Drivers are only vulnerable to this level of scarring during that narrow slice of their teenage years when they’re just learning to drive. When prices jump, scars don’t appear in folks who were younger than 15 or older than 18. In some analyses, the researchers shifted the window to fit each state’s driving-age requirements.</em>\r\n<em>“You develop a particular taste for driving from this formative window of when you’re roughly 15 to 18, and that’s influenced by gas-price volatility during that period,\" Severen said. \"People who experience these large shocks have a lower taste for driving.”</em>', 'An economic crisis in your teens can alter your behaviour for life, economists find', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1943-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 08:36:24', '2019-10-25 08:36:24', '', 1943, 'http://marcellus.in/1943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2036, 1, '2019-10-25 09:11:03', '2019-10-25 09:11:03', 'In his book Factfulness, Dr Hans Rosling remarked that the sanitary pads market remained the world’s largest untapped business opportunity, which could also make the biggest difference to humanity by improving women’s menstrual health, given the huge underpenetration of this product, especially in the third world. The issue got some much required publicity in India last year on the back of the success of a Bollywood Movie Padman, which was inspired by a South Indian social entrepreneur Arunachalam Muruganantham who introduced low cost sanitary pads. Earlier this year, the government of India’s “Bureau of Pharma Public Sector Undertakings of India (BPPI)” launched sanitary pads priced at Re 1, thereby fulfilling the BJP’s promise from its election manifesto. The article talks about how even in the suburbs of the national capital, sales have shot up on the back of such affordable pricing, highlighting the significant under-penetration of an essential product. However, the article also alludes to quality issues with the product suggesting Dr Rosling’s opportunity remains open for a private sector for-profit initiative to deliver a cost effective yet quality solution to women in the poorest parts of the world.\r\n“Throughout the day, those dropping in at the Jan Aushadhi medical store in Shakarpur, East Delhi, can barely disguise their surprise. Among them Alvira Mukherjee, a teacher at Vivekananda College in Vivek Vihar, Delhi, who stops over on way back home to Laxmi Nagar from college. So, instead of one pack of Suvidha oxo-biodegradable sanitary pads, Mukherjee, 27, decides to buy two.\r\n….Yasmita Arora, the owner of the Shakarpur Jan Aushadhi store, says customers, cutting across age, gender and class, have been buying the pads for themselves, their wives and daughters or relatives. While earlier she would sell around 500 of the Rs 10 pads per week, she has been selling as many in two days now, Arora says.\r\nIn one corner of Arora’s shop, 45-year-old Anju, with a dupatta wrapped around her head, has been waiting for some time, throwing anxious glances at the three male customers. Arora, realising what the matter was, seeks her out with a questioning glance, and Anju lifts two fingers and mouths the word “packet”.\r\nWhile cotton swabs, band-aids and toothbrushes lie on top of the counter, and shampoos and diapers hang from a rod above, Arora takes out the Suvidha packs from inside a cabinet.\r\nAnju, who lives nearby, says she and her 24-year-old daughter have been using Suvidha for a year. “When I heard the pads had become cheaper, I bought some extra packets for my relatives,” she says. As she leaves, some of the men around purchase a packet of Suvidha for family members to try.”', '‘Only Re 1’: Customers line up for sanitary pads as price slashed at Jan Aushadhi stores', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2023-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:11:03', '2019-10-25 09:11:03', '', 2023, 'http://marcellus.in/2023-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2037, 1, '2019-10-25 09:12:13', '2019-10-25 09:12:13', 'We alluded to Bangalore’s traffic congestion problem in last week’s 3L-3S but it is the city’s ability to deal with the challenges around water scarcity which will likely shape its future. Mridula Ramesh, who is the founder of the Sundaram Climate Institute, and author of The Climate Solution — India\'s Climate Crisis and What We Can Do About It, emphasises the point about how water management or the lack of it can cause cities to rise and fall respectively, citing the example of a 2500yr old city discovered recently in South India.\r\n“Whoever they were, the Keeladians were masters at managing water. Water-management infrastructure predominated in the finds.\r\nUntil now, at least three kinds of channels have been discovered: one was a shallow, broad channel — about half a metre across, a few inches in height and about 6 metres thus far excavated in length — lined with shards of broken terracotta roof tiles. Nearby there was a beautifully crafted terracotta pipe which appeared to feed into a strategically placed pot, which in turn was placed on top of another pot. The last type of channel was a closed channel, gently curved, with the curved portion buttressed with additional support — was this because the liquid was pressurised? This channel ran close to a small, square, brick-lined tank at the site.\r\nThe different types of channels allude to different qualities of water being transported — the flat, broad, open channel could have been used to carry fresh water perhaps, where smell was not a concern. One possibility is that the closed channels were used to carry away smellier liquids — sewage or effluent, maybe. During an earlier dig in Keeladi, archaeologists unearthed four parallel water channels — which implied the movement of a lot of water — far more than a single household could use. And the sheer numbers of channels discovered now — there were several crisscrossing a 300 sq mtr stretch — suggest that this was an intense water-using site. The Keeladians were moving water strategically from place to place for some function.\r\n…one interesting find was the ring wells, several of which were found at the site. Essentially, these wells used terracotta rings inside a shaft to prevent the collapse of the sides. These ringwells, as per Dr Pande, could have been used as either draw wells or soak pits, and were widely found across in India in the 4th-5th centuries BCE. Ring wells as draw wells are a clever idea when water was available close below the surface — in this case, about 5-10 feet below the surface. One explanation for water at such shallow depths is that the river Vaigai ran far closer to Keeladi 2,500 years ago.\r\n….One suggestion (refuted by others, of course!) has been that they share roots with the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC). The IVC declined a good thousand years-plus before the thus-far dated Keeladi site — also laid low by the lack of water.\r\n….Both the Indus Valley residents and the Keeladians were masters at water management. Moving to the present, water is the foundation of our prosperity as it was for the Keeladians. We use it in our factories today, much like they did, even as we discover the power of recycling it. We use wells like their ringwells — deeper and more powerful, to be sure, but ours are reaching their limits and coming up dry, like theirs did before they perished. Today, as the peripheries of our cities experience a seasonal ‘Day Zero’ and our water future looks to become decidedly more temperamental, the Keeladi site almost serves as a ‘Back to the Future’ moment for our cities: Manage and cherish your water or perish.”', 'Findings from Keeladi excavation site have a clear message for modern cities: Cherish your water, or perish', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2021-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:12:13', '2019-10-25 09:12:13', '', 2021, 'http://marcellus.in/2021-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2038, 1, '2019-10-25 09:12:46', '2019-10-25 09:12:46', 'As an ever increasing number of people across the world take to running citing benefits varying from the physical to the metaphysical, there is more inspiration coming from the field of long distance running. In an epic run last weekend, the current marathon world champion and world record holder Eliud Kipchoge broke the two-hour barrier by a handsome 20 seconds. Whilst this wasn’t a regular race and hence the record may not get official recognition, the feat deserves attention as this piece in the NYT highlights that human endeavour combined with science and technology can break barriers hitherto considered unsurpassable.\r\n“…It’s difficult to convey just how fast his time was. Mr. Kipchoge just ran a mile in 4 minutes and 33 seconds — 26 times. He ran at a pace of 13 miles per hour, for two hours in a row. And when it got tough toward the end, he did what he always does: He smiled.\r\nMr. Kipchoge’s performance has echoes of breaking the 4-minute-mile barrier in the 1950s. It’s not that we didn’t think humans would get here — scientific barriers based on round figures are fundamentally arbitrary after all. It’s that we didn’t realize it would be so soon. At the first Olympic marathon in 1896, on a shorter course than the modern marathon, only the winner finished in under three hours. As recently as last year, one expert predicted the two-hour mark wouldn’t be broken until 2028 or 2029.\r\nSo what made it possible? It’s not so different from when Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay summited Everest for the first time in 1953, aided by supplementary oxygen. In both cases, the requirements were extraordinary determination, outstanding physical condition — and a heavy dose of science.\r\nBut with science comes controversy. For Mr. Kipchoge, the run involved a few tricks that purists don’t tend to buy — and that violate enough rules to make it ineligible to be considered a “real” world record. (With his time of 2:01:39 at the Berlin Marathon last year, Mr. Kipchoge holds that record anyway.)\r\nHe ran with a dream team of 41 pacers from around the world, including the American Olympic medalists Matthew Centrowitz and Bernard Lagat, and the three Ingebrigtsen brothers from Norway. They were deployed by sports scientists who adapted the same technological drafting tricks used by cyclists. Five runners formed a V-shape ahead of Mr. Kipchoge, reducing drag, and two runners followed directly behind to push him forward. There was also a pace car that drove 15 meters in front of everyone, casting a laser line on the road to keep them on track.\r\nTo reap the benefits, Mr. Kipchoge had to stay exactly in the center of the formation, to the centimeter. The team traded members off every five kilometers, and he stayed under a two-hour pace for almost the entire time. They gave way for him to pass as he closed in on the finish line, fanning out into a line behind him. And then they started absolutely freaking out.\r\nWhen he finished, Mr. Kipchoge compared what he’d just accomplished to man walking on the moon. It’s an apt analogy. Rather than showing what humanity is naturally capable of, his performance indicates what we can achieve with a boost from technology. For instance, Mr. Kipchoge wore an unreleased version of Nike’s special, and controversial, speed shoes, which were designed to give a significant edge to anyone racing in them. (Like a lot of runners, I have logged my fastest races in older versions of these shoes.) The shoes have enormous, spongy, springy soles. (Remember “barefoot running”? That era is over). If this performance was like walking on the moon, he was racing in the terrestrial equivalent of moon shoes.”', 'How Did Eliud Kipchoge Break the Marathon Record So Soon?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2019-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:12:46', '2019-10-25 09:12:46', '', 2019, 'http://marcellus.in/2019-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2039, 1, '2019-10-25 09:15:33', '2019-10-25 09:15:33', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:15:33', '2019-10-25 09:15:33', '', 2015, 'http://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2040, 1, '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '<strong style=\"color: #990000\">What can you achieve using Email Subscribers?</strong><p>Add subscription forms on website, send HTML newsletters & automatically notify subscribers about new blog posts once it is published. You can also Import or Export subscribers from any list to Email Subscribers.</p> <strong style=\"color: #990000\">Plugin Features</strong><ol> <li>Send notification emails to subscribers when new blog posts are published.</li> <li>Subscribe form available with 3 options to setup.</li> <li>Double Opt-In and Single Opt-In support.</li> <li>Email notification to admin when a new user signs up (Optional).</li> <li>Automatic welcome email to subscriber.</li> <li>Auto add unsubscribe link in the email.</li> <li>Import/Export subscriber emails to migrate to any lists.</li> <li>Default WordPress editor to create emails.</li> </ol> <strong>Thanks & Regards,</strong><br>Admin', 'Welcome To Email Subscribers', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'welcome-to-email-subscribers', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '2019-10-25 09:42:44', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/es_template/welcome-to-email-subscribers/', 0, 'es_template', '', 0),
(2041, 1, '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', 'Hello {{NAME}},\r\n\r\nWe have published a new blog article on our website : {{POSTTITLE}}\r\n{{POSTIMAGE}}\r\n\r\nYou can view it from this link : {{POSTLINK}}\r\n\r\nThanks & Regards,\r\nAdmin\r\n\r\nYou received this email because in the past you have provided us your email address : {{EMAIL}} to receive notifications when new updates are posted.', 'New Post Published - {{POSTTITLE}}', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'new-post-published-posttitle', '', '', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '2019-10-25 09:42:45', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/es_template/new-post-published-posttitle/', 0, 'es_template', '', 0),
(2043, 1, '2019-10-27 17:24:19', '2019-10-27 17:24:19', 'Uber and Airbnb were both founded around a decade ago and most of us think of them as being synonymous of the gig economy where millions of vendors sell their wares via asset-light platforms who act as a shopfront. However, “As Airbnb prepares to go public next year, its boss, Brian Chesky, has been making the case for his company, both to the press and behind closed doors. He is keen to get across that, sharing-economy heritage notwithstanding, Airbnb is no Uber.”\r\nSo, what are the differences between the two platforms? <em>“But here the similarities end, starting with money. Whereas Uber has yet to turn a profit (and, sceptics say, never will), Airbnb says it is already profitable (to be precise, ebitda-positive) and has been since 2017, when it is thought to have earned $93m on revenues of $2.6bn. That is not the only distinction. </em>\r\n<em>For ride-hailing firms like Uber and Lyft, supply and demand must be matched in the same city; a driver in Manhattan is no use to a rider in Mumbai. Airbnb’s listings, by contrast, are global. Any property anywhere can potentially appeal to any user; a Mumbaiker may want to stay in New York. A telltale sign of Airbnb’s superior “network effects” is that whereas drivers for Uber often drive for Lyft, and vice versa, doing their utmost to play the platforms off against each other, most of Airbnb’s listings do not appear on any other platform.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Airbnb has been cleverer than Uber in the way it has dealt with regulators around the world. <em>“Airbnb decided earlier than Uber to work with regulators rather than fighting them. It has struck deals in more than 500 big cities around the world. It says it has collected more than $1bn in hotel and tourism taxes in America alone and is “on track to become the world’s largest single collector of these taxes”.</em>', 'Airbnb and Uber are chalk and cheese', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2042-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:24:19', '2019-10-27 17:24:19', '', 2042, 'http://marcellus.in/2042-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2044, 1, '2019-10-27 17:26:51', '2019-10-27 17:26:51', 'Many of us who endure long commutes and work in businesses where frequent air travel is a must know a thing or two about sleep deprivation. But very few of us understand the full effects of sleep deprivation on our bodies &amp; minds. The ESPN article on players in the American NBA therefore becomes required reading for us.\r\n<em>“Fatigue has long been a reality of life in the NBA, a league with teams that play 82 games in under six months and fly up to 50,000 miles per season -- roughly 20,000 more miles each season than NFL teams and far enough to circle the globe twice. Over the 2018-19 season, the average NBA team played every 2.07 days, had 13.3 back-to-back sets and flew the equivalent of 250 miles a day for 25 straight weeks.”</em>\r\nThis sort of playing schedule imposes severe loads on players’ bodies. Take for example a player called Tobias Harris. <em>“This is how Tobias Harris rolls: On off-days, he\'ll make sure he\'s done with everything by 6 p.m. so he can be in bed by 8:30 to achieve his nightly goal of nine hours of sleep. On game nights, he kick-starts his recovery as soon as the buzzer sounds. At his locker, he\'ll strap a breathing belt around his waist and slip a heart-rate monitor on his index finger. He knows the game has caused his body to release cortisol, a hormone that wakes him up, while suppressing melatonin, the hormone the body naturally produces to regulate sleep. He\'s out of balance. So for a few minutes, still wearing his jersey, adrenaline still flowing through his veins, he\'ll take several deep breaths, trying to slow his heart rate and breathing until they\'re aligned, monitoring his progress on an iPad.</em>\r\n<em>He calls this his quiet time. The goal? Re-balance just enough so that once he settles into bed, he can quickly enter a deep, restorative sleep.</em>\r\n<em>There\'s more. Harris travels with an electroencephalogram machine, examining his brain waves almost daily, engaging in daily 45-minute training sessions. He clips sensors onto each ear, another onto his temple, the three wires leading back into the EEG, then cues up a film or TV show; as the show plays, the EEG reads his brain waves. If they venture outside an optimal range for focus and concentration, the show doesn\'t play.</em>\r\n<em>What Harris is doing is called neurofeedback. And although its efficacy has been debated by medical experts, Harris swears by it -- believes it arms him with knowledge in his ongoing battle against fatigue.</em>\r\n<em>This has been Harris\' routine for the past five seasons. But he\'s far from the only NBA player to feel the need to manage the impact of travel and sleep loss.”</em>\r\nSo what are the negative impacts of lack of sleep? As per the legend that is LeBron James, <em>“There\'s nothing more important than optimal REM sleep.”</em>\r\nPortland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum says: <em>\"Lack of sleep messes up your recovery, messes up how you play, your cognitive function, your mindset, how you\'re moving on the court,\" McCollum says. \"Sleep is everything.\"</em>\r\nTimothy Royer, a performance athlete specialist, believes <em>“Sleep deprivation…is more than just a hindrance to NBA players on the court. It likely is injuring them -- and shortening their lives.” </em>In fact, Royer has found tangible evidence of how this plays out: <em>“By January, just three months into the 2012-13 NBA season, the testosterone of one player in his 20s had dropped to that of a 50-year-old man. (Those reductions in testosterone, it\'s worth noting, are not permanent, but they do require multiple days of recovery to offset.) And as testosterone levels fell for more players, the injuries seemed to correspondingly accumulate.”</em>\r\n<em>“Chronic sleep loss has been associated with higher risk for cancer, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, heart attacks, Alzheimer\'s, dementia, depression, stroke, psychosis and suicide. As Phyllis Zee, chief of sleep medicine in the department of neurology at Northwestern University\'s Feinberg School of Medicine, says, \"Sleep deprivation ... doesn\'t only affect the brain -- it affects all your other organs. ... Think about it as punching your other organs.”</em>', 'NBA exec: \'It\'s the dirty little secret that everybody knows about\'', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nba-exec-its-the-dirty-little-secret-that-everybody-knows-about', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:14:40', '2019-11-01 12:14:40', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2044', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2045, 1, '2019-10-27 17:26:51', '2019-10-27 17:26:51', 'Many of us who endure long commutes and work in businesses where frequent air travel is a must know a thing or two about sleep deprivation. But very few of us understand the full effects of sleep deprivation on our bodies &amp; minds. The ESPN article on players in the American NBA therefore becomes required reading for us.\r\n<em>“Fatigue has long been a reality of life in the NBA, a league with teams that play 82 games in under six months and fly up to 50,000 miles per season -- roughly 20,000 more miles each season than NFL teams and far enough to circle the globe twice. Over the 2018-19 season, the average NBA team played every 2.07 days, had 13.3 back-to-back sets and flew the equivalent of 250 miles a day for 25 straight weeks.”</em>\r\nThis sort of playing schedule imposes severe loads on players’ bodies. Take for example a player called Tobias Harris. <em>“This is how Tobias Harris rolls: On off-days, he\'ll make sure he\'s done with everything by 6 p.m. so he can be in bed by 8:30 to achieve his nightly goal of nine hours of sleep. On game nights, he kick-starts his recovery as soon as the buzzer sounds. At his locker, he\'ll strap a breathing belt around his waist and slip a heart-rate monitor on his index finger. He knows the game has caused his body to release cortisol, a hormone that wakes him up, while suppressing melatonin, the hormone the body naturally produces to regulate sleep. He\'s out of balance. So for a few minutes, still wearing his jersey, adrenaline still flowing through his veins, he\'ll take several deep breaths, trying to slow his heart rate and breathing until they\'re aligned, monitoring his progress on an iPad.</em>\r\n<em>He calls this his quiet time. The goal? Re-balance just enough so that once he settles into bed, he can quickly enter a deep, restorative sleep.</em>\r\n<em>There\'s more. Harris travels with an electroencephalogram machine, examining his brain waves almost daily, engaging in daily 45-minute training sessions. He clips sensors onto each ear, another onto his temple, the three wires leading back into the EEG, then cues up a film or TV show; as the show plays, the EEG reads his brain waves. If they venture outside an optimal range for focus and concentration, the show doesn\'t play.</em>\r\n<em>What Harris is doing is called neurofeedback. And although its efficacy has been debated by medical experts, Harris swears by it -- believes it arms him with knowledge in his ongoing battle against fatigue.</em>\r\n<em>This has been Harris\' routine for the past five seasons. But he\'s far from the only NBA player to feel the need to manage the impact of travel and sleep loss.”</em>\r\nSo what are the negative impacts of lack of sleep? As per the legend that is LeBron James, <em>“There\'s nothing more important than optimal REM sleep.”</em>\r\nPortland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum says: <em>\"Lack of sleep messes up your recovery, messes up how you play, your cognitive function, your mindset, how you\'re moving on the court,\" McCollum says. \"Sleep is everything.\"</em>\r\nTimothy Royer, a performance athlete specialist, believes <em>“Sleep deprivation…is more than just a hindrance to NBA players on the court. It likely is injuring them -- and shortening their lives.” </em>In fact, Royer has found tangible evidence of how this plays out: <em>“By January, just three months into the 2012-13 NBA season, the testosterone of one player in his 20s had dropped to that of a 50-year-old man. (Those reductions in testosterone, it\'s worth noting, are not permanent, but they do require multiple days of recovery to offset.) And as testosterone levels fell for more players, the injuries seemed to correspondingly accumulate.”</em>\r\n<em>“Chronic sleep loss has been associated with higher risk for cancer, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, heart attacks, Alzheimer\'s, dementia, depression, stroke, psychosis and suicide. As Phyllis Zee, chief of sleep medicine in the department of neurology at Northwestern University\'s Feinberg School of Medicine, says, \"Sleep deprivation ... doesn\'t only affect the brain -- it affects all your other organs. ... Think about it as punching your other organs.”</em>', 'NBA exec: \'It\'s the dirty little secret that everybody knows about\'', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2044-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:26:51', '2019-10-27 17:26:51', '', 2044, 'http://marcellus.in/2044-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2046, 1, '2019-10-27 17:29:26', '2019-10-27 17:29:26', 'Women are not only smashing the glass ceiling in the corporate world but also apparently in the world of statues. Women have always been given a raw deal in a male dominated society and capturing the important role they have played in the past through the means of statues also shows our society’s apathy towards women.\r\n<em>“Across the US, there are fewer than 400 public statues of women. San Francisco has three statues of historical women and 85 of men. In Washington, D.C. some of the statues depicting women represent the metaphorical ideals of our democracy. In New York City, only five of 150 statues are real women. The problem extends to other countries, too. In the UK, out of 828 recorded statues, 94 are nameless representations of females and 80 are named women, according to the BBC. But approximately 15 of those named women aren’t real women, and a whole 38 of them are royal figures—mainly various versions of Queen Victoria I. In Australia there are more statues of animals than of women; just under 4% of all of the country’s statues represent historical female figures, according to columnist Tracey Spicer.” This lack of representation has real effects. Because women—actual, real women—couldn’t be venerated in the form of sculpture, people subconsciously understood that women weren’t worthy of being emulated and idolized.</em>\r\nHowever, things are changing as many organizations and NGO’s have started campaigning for placing real women statues in public places.\r\n<em>“In 2018, Salt Lake City-based statue manufacturer Statues.com started a campaign called “Where Are The Women?” in an effort to produce 20 seven-inch busts of heroic American women to launch in 2020. The daughter of Illinois poet laureate Gwendolyn Brooks and the great-granddaughter of investigative journalist Ida B. Wells have separately pushed to get statues of their inspirational family members in public sites in Chicago. Brooks’ statue was unveiled last year in Brooks Park, while Wells’ statue will likely be installed by the end of 2019.”</em>\r\n<em>“All these initiatives come with educational programs intended to teach the public about monumental women in history. “The monuments are important, I’m a believer in the monuments,” says Gale Brewer, Manhattan’s Borough President. “[But] I’m more of a believer in the history and the ongoing discussion in our community. If we do these monuments they have to be accompanied with extremely intensive information, on apps, online, in the schools. And I know they will.”</em>', 'The US has fewer than 400 statues of women—but that’s changing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-us-has-fewer-than-400-statues-of-women-but-thats-changing', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:14:04', '2019-11-01 12:14:04', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2046', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2047, 1, '2019-10-27 17:29:26', '2019-10-27 17:29:26', 'Women are not only smashing the glass ceiling in the corporate world but also apparently in the world of statues. Women have always been given a raw deal in a male dominated society and capturing the important role they have played in the past through the means of statues also shows our society’s apathy towards women.\r\n<em>“Across the US, there are fewer than 400 public statues of women. San Francisco has three statues of historical women and 85 of men. In Washington, D.C. some of the statues depicting women represent the metaphorical ideals of our democracy. In New York City, only five of 150 statues are real women. The problem extends to other countries, too. In the UK, out of 828 recorded statues, 94 are nameless representations of females and 80 are named women, according to the BBC. But approximately 15 of those named women aren’t real women, and a whole 38 of them are royal figures—mainly various versions of Queen Victoria I. In Australia there are more statues of animals than of women; just under 4% of all of the country’s statues represent historical female figures, according to columnist Tracey Spicer.” This lack of representation has real effects. Because women—actual, real women—couldn’t be venerated in the form of sculpture, people subconsciously understood that women weren’t worthy of being emulated and idolized.</em>\r\nHowever, things are changing as many organizations and NGO’s have started campaigning for placing real women statues in public places.\r\n<em>“In 2018, Salt Lake City-based statue manufacturer Statues.com started a campaign called “Where Are The Women?” in an effort to produce 20 seven-inch busts of heroic American women to launch in 2020. The daughter of Illinois poet laureate Gwendolyn Brooks and the great-granddaughter of investigative journalist Ida B. Wells have separately pushed to get statues of their inspirational family members in public sites in Chicago. Brooks’ statue was unveiled last year in Brooks Park, while Wells’ statue will likely be installed by the end of 2019.”</em>\r\n<em>“All these initiatives come with educational programs intended to teach the public about monumental women in history. “The monuments are important, I’m a believer in the monuments,” says Gale Brewer, Manhattan’s Borough President. “[But] I’m more of a believer in the history and the ongoing discussion in our community. If we do these monuments they have to be accompanied with extremely intensive information, on apps, online, in the schools. And I know they will.”</em>', 'The US has fewer than 400 statues of women—but that’s changing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2046-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:29:26', '2019-10-27 17:29:26', '', 2046, 'http://marcellus.in/2046-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2048, 1, '2019-10-27 17:31:00', '2019-10-27 17:31:00', 'Spotify has been Godsend for music lovers across the world, especially given its ability to machine learn your music taste and push stuff that you didn’t know existed but you would absolutely love. But little is known about how Daniel Ek, its founder, was inspired by an equally loved online music service called Napster. If you were in your late teens or early twenties at the turn of the millennium, it is highly likely that you would have been bitten by the Napster bug which suddenly opened up the whole world of music at the click of a mouse button. Here’s the backstory to Spotify’s rise from Napster’s ashes from Quartz’s Daniel Kopf who very honestly admits to striking a deal with his father to “buying the album if he downloaded more than three songs from the same album on Napster” and eventually failing to honour the deal. Whilst Napster triggered the fall in music industry revenues from $21bn in 1999 to $7bn in 2014, Spotify may have given a ray of hope with revenues now recovering to $10bn in 2018.\r\n<em>“Napster was a company with a popular software in search of a revenue model, one it would never get the chance to find.</em>\r\n<em>Napster was eventually shut down in 2001 due to lawsuit by the Recording Industry Association of America, the trade group for the US music industry. A US court found Napster was facilitating the illegal transfer of copyrighted music, and was told that unless it was able to stop that activity on its site, it would have to shutdown. Napster couldn’t comply. </em>\r\n<em>From the abyss, Spotify appeared. Daniel Ek, the co-founder and CEO of Spotify, has said that Spotify, launched in 2008, is a direct byproduct of his love for Napster, and his desire to create a similar experience for users.</em>\r\n<em>Daniel Ek, the founder of Spotify says “he thought he could create a “better product than piracy” by making streaming so fast that you wouldn’t even notice the loading time. He would avoid the trap that Napster fell into by getting music labels to agree to have their songs on his platform. To fund operations and licensing costs, he would sell advertising between songs (subscriptions were not originally part of the model), making music “free” like on Napster, but his program would be even easier to use and less likely to give you a computer virus. He thought his company would help save a declining music industry, and help people “discover better music.”</em>\r\n<em>The authors of the 2019 book Spotify Teardown, an academic examination of rise of Spotify, say something very different happened. The book, written by a group of Swedish media studies professors, historians, and programmers, contends that Spotify was simply an opportunistic application of a technology that Ek developed, rather than effort to save the music industry.</em>\r\n<em>Though it may not have been Ek’s intention to “save” the music industry, his company might have done so by showing the viability of streaming. Because some of the revenue from streaming companies is sent on to labels, the music industry has finally started making money again. From a nadir of about $7 billion in revenue in 2014 (in 2018 dollars), US revenue rose to almost $10 billion in 2018. That is still less than half of the money the industry was making in 1999, but it’s progress nonetheless.”</em>', 'Napster paved the way for streaming-reliant music industry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'napster-paved-the-way-for-streaming-reliant-music-industry', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:13:28', '2019-11-01 12:13:28', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2048', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2049, 1, '2019-10-27 17:31:00', '2019-10-27 17:31:00', 'Spotify has been Godsend for music lovers across the world, especially given its ability to machine learn your music taste and push stuff that you didn’t know existed but you would absolutely love. But little is known about how Daniel Ek, its founder, was inspired by an equally loved online music service called Napster. If you were in your late teens or early twenties at the turn of the millennium, it is highly likely that you would have been bitten by the Napster bug which suddenly opened up the whole world of music at the click of a mouse button. Here’s the backstory to Spotify’s rise from Napster’s ashes from Quartz’s Daniel Kopf who very honestly admits to striking a deal with his father to “buying the album if he downloaded more than three songs from the same album on Napster” and eventually failing to honour the deal. Whilst Napster triggered the fall in music industry revenues from $21bn in 1999 to $7bn in 2014, Spotify may have given a ray of hope with revenues now recovering to $10bn in 2018.\r\n<em>“Napster was a company with a popular software in search of a revenue model, one it would never get the chance to find.</em>\r\n<em>Napster was eventually shut down in 2001 due to lawsuit by the Recording Industry Association of America, the trade group for the US music industry. A US court found Napster was facilitating the illegal transfer of copyrighted music, and was told that unless it was able to stop that activity on its site, it would have to shutdown. Napster couldn’t comply. </em>\r\n<em>From the abyss, Spotify appeared. Daniel Ek, the co-founder and CEO of Spotify, has said that Spotify, launched in 2008, is a direct byproduct of his love for Napster, and his desire to create a similar experience for users.</em>\r\n<em>Daniel Ek, the founder of Spotify says “he thought he could create a “better product than piracy” by making streaming so fast that you wouldn’t even notice the loading time. He would avoid the trap that Napster fell into by getting music labels to agree to have their songs on his platform. To fund operations and licensing costs, he would sell advertising between songs (subscriptions were not originally part of the model), making music “free” like on Napster, but his program would be even easier to use and less likely to give you a computer virus. He thought his company would help save a declining music industry, and help people “discover better music.”</em>\r\n<em>The authors of the 2019 book Spotify Teardown, an academic examination of rise of Spotify, say something very different happened. The book, written by a group of Swedish media studies professors, historians, and programmers, contends that Spotify was simply an opportunistic application of a technology that Ek developed, rather than effort to save the music industry.</em>\r\n<em>Though it may not have been Ek’s intention to “save” the music industry, his company might have done so by showing the viability of streaming. Because some of the revenue from streaming companies is sent on to labels, the music industry has finally started making money again. From a nadir of about $7 billion in revenue in 2014 (in 2018 dollars), US revenue rose to almost $10 billion in 2018. That is still less than half of the money the industry was making in 1999, but it’s progress nonetheless.”</em>', 'Napster paved the way for streaming-reliant music industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2048-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:31:00', '2019-10-27 17:31:00', '', 2048, 'http://marcellus.in/2048-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2050, 1, '2019-10-27 17:32:25', '2019-10-27 17:32:25', 'It is almost a century since Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for his work in quantum physics. Whilst applications from his work have emerged across diverse fields and solved real world problems, quantum computing has been a mega promise yet to see real world applications. From that perspective, Google’s announcement this week that their 53-bit quantum computer Sycamore took 200 seconds to perform a calculation that otherwise would have taken the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years, sounds like a step-progress of sorts. Gideon Lichfield grills Google CEO Sundar Pichai on what exactly this means for mankind whilst Pichai guardedly alludes to the bigger picture of progress for the sake of progress. Afterall, Niels Bohr famously said of the inherent paradoxical or ambivalent nature of quantum physics and what it means for progress: “How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress.”\r\n<em>“….To borrow an analogy—the Wright brothers. The first plane flew only for 12 seconds, and so there is no practical application of that. But it showed the possibility that a plane could fly.</em>\r\n<em>“We’re only one creative algorithm away from valuable near-term applications.”</em>\r\n<em>The real excitement about quantum is that the universe fundamentally works in a quantum way, so you will be able to understand nature better. It’s early days, but where quantum mechanics shines is the ability to simulate molecules, molecular processes, and I think that is where it will be the strongest. Drug discovery is a great example. Or fertilizers—the Haber process produces 2% of carbon [emissions] in the world [see Note 1]. In nature the same process gets done more efficiently.</em>\r\n<em>…Caffeine has 2^43 states or something like that.... We know we can’t even understand the basic structure of molecules today with classical computing. So when I look at climate change, when I look at medicines, this is why I am confident one day quantum computing will drive progress there.”</em>', 'Google CEO Sundar Pichai on achieving quantum supremacy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'google-ceo-sundar-pichai-on-achieving-quantum-supremacy', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:12:48', '2019-11-01 12:12:48', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2050', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2051, 1, '2019-10-27 17:32:25', '2019-10-27 17:32:25', 'It is almost a century since Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for his work in quantum physics. Whilst applications from his work have emerged across diverse fields and solved real world problems, quantum computing has been a mega promise yet to see real world applications. From that perspective, Google’s announcement this week that their 53-bit quantum computer Sycamore took 200 seconds to perform a calculation that otherwise would have taken the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years, sounds like a step-progress of sorts. Gideon Lichfield grills Google CEO Sundar Pichai on what exactly this means for mankind whilst Pichai guardedly alludes to the bigger picture of progress for the sake of progress. Afterall, Niels Bohr famously said of the inherent paradoxical or ambivalent nature of quantum physics and what it means for progress: “How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress.”\r\n<em>“….To borrow an analogy—the Wright brothers. The first plane flew only for 12 seconds, and so there is no practical application of that. But it showed the possibility that a plane could fly.</em>\r\n<em>“We’re only one creative algorithm away from valuable near-term applications.”</em>\r\n<em>The real excitement about quantum is that the universe fundamentally works in a quantum way, so you will be able to understand nature better. It’s early days, but where quantum mechanics shines is the ability to simulate molecules, molecular processes, and I think that is where it will be the strongest. Drug discovery is a great example. Or fertilizers—the Haber process produces 2% of carbon [emissions] in the world [see Note 1]. In nature the same process gets done more efficiently.</em>\r\n<em>…Caffeine has 2^43 states or something like that.... We know we can’t even understand the basic structure of molecules today with classical computing. So when I look at climate change, when I look at medicines, this is why I am confident one day quantum computing will drive progress there.”</em>', 'Google CEO Sundar Pichai on achieving quantum supremacy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2050-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:32:25', '2019-10-27 17:32:25', '', 2050, 'http://marcellus.in/2050-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2052, 1, '2019-10-27 17:33:45', '2019-10-27 17:33:45', 'If over a billion people on the planet are going to be revelling in in festivities over the next three days, it is worth finding out the history behind this. And who better to help us understand the historical significance of Diwali, the festival of lights, than Manu Pillai, arguably the best Indian historian of today, especially when it comes to events of the past south of the Vindhyas. Pillai touches upon the nuanced differences in significance of the festival across different sects of the Hindu and Jain communities. But in general it refers to enlightenment or the elimination of darkness in various contexts such as the autumnal harvest signifying prosperity or the slaying of demons putting an end to evil. However, the best representation is captured in his concluding para: <em>“In essence, though, celebrating the power of light in throwing off even the most forbidding cloaks of darkness remains the principal physical and philosophical motif for Diwali. The 13th century Jnaneshwari, in fact, compares the shine of Diwali’s festive lamps to the light of knowledge—an attractive metaphor, perhaps, for our own time, which seems to be seized by the creeping darkness of wilful ignorance. Those bearing today’s lamps may have to endure much like Mahavir did in his own day—but it is a quest worth its exactions, for even a single flickering flame is capable of keeping shadows at bay.”</em>\r\n<em>“Through many an age, Diwali has endured as a festival of tremendous significance in India. Some see it as having evolved from an autumnal agrarian celebration: In the somewhat sniffy words of a colonial commentator, the festival marks the annual return of a time when “the granaries are full of corn, the tension of labour and anxiety about the harvest are…removed, the people are idle, and thus there is a natural tendency to outbreaks of eroticism and temporary relaxation of the laws of order\".</em>\r\n<em>To orthodox Jains, though, this was not originally about mere rejoicing—as a day that marks the attainment of moksha (salvation) by Mahavir, it was at first spent in silence, with fasts and other austerities as experienced by the 24th Tirthankar. Over time, though, more cheerful elements made their way into the Jain Diwali too. With many Jains being prosperous merchants and purveyors of trade, they too welcomed the goddess of wealth to their homes on this day, paving Lakshmi’s way with light and decorative opulence.</em>\r\n<em>….Whatever the chief tradition, though, lamps and illumination are key to Diwali—even the Jains who stayed silent and fasted brightened up the night, remembering that when Mahavir died, 18 kings came together and declared, “Since the light of intelligence is gone, let us make an illumination of material matter.\"”</em>', 'The many beginnings of Diwali', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-many-beginnings-of-diwali', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:11:52', '2019-11-01 12:11:52', '', 0, 'http://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2052', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2053, 1, '2019-10-27 17:33:45', '2019-10-27 17:33:45', 'If over a billion people on the planet are going to be revelling in in festivities over the next three days, it is worth finding out the history behind this. And who better to help us understand the historical significance of Diwali, the festival of lights, than Manu Pillai, arguably the best Indian historian of today, especially when it comes to events of the past south of the Vindhyas. Pillai touches upon the nuanced differences in significance of the festival across different sects of the Hindu and Jain communities. But in general it refers to enlightenment or the elimination of darkness in various contexts such as the autumnal harvest signifying prosperity or the slaying of demons putting an end to evil. However, the best representation is captured in his concluding para: <em>“In essence, though, celebrating the power of light in throwing off even the most forbidding cloaks of darkness remains the principal physical and philosophical motif for Diwali. The 13th century Jnaneshwari, in fact, compares the shine of Diwali’s festive lamps to the light of knowledge—an attractive metaphor, perhaps, for our own time, which seems to be seized by the creeping darkness of wilful ignorance. Those bearing today’s lamps may have to endure much like Mahavir did in his own day—but it is a quest worth its exactions, for even a single flickering flame is capable of keeping shadows at bay.”</em>\r\n<em>“Through many an age, Diwali has endured as a festival of tremendous significance in India. Some see it as having evolved from an autumnal agrarian celebration: In the somewhat sniffy words of a colonial commentator, the festival marks the annual return of a time when “the granaries are full of corn, the tension of labour and anxiety about the harvest are…removed, the people are idle, and thus there is a natural tendency to outbreaks of eroticism and temporary relaxation of the laws of order\".</em>\r\n<em>To orthodox Jains, though, this was not originally about mere rejoicing—as a day that marks the attainment of moksha (salvation) by Mahavir, it was at first spent in silence, with fasts and other austerities as experienced by the 24th Tirthankar. Over time, though, more cheerful elements made their way into the Jain Diwali too. With many Jains being prosperous merchants and purveyors of trade, they too welcomed the goddess of wealth to their homes on this day, paving Lakshmi’s way with light and decorative opulence.</em>\r\n<em>….Whatever the chief tradition, though, lamps and illumination are key to Diwali—even the Jains who stayed silent and fasted brightened up the night, remembering that when Mahavir died, 18 kings came together and declared, “Since the light of intelligence is gone, let us make an illumination of material matter.\"”</em>', 'The many beginnings of Diwali', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2052-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-27 17:33:45', '2019-10-27 17:33:45', '', 2052, 'http://marcellus.in/2052-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2191, 1, '2019-11-06 06:03:21', '2019-11-06 06:03:21', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:03:21', '2019-11-06 06:03:21', '', 38, 'https://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2056, 1, '2019-10-30 09:24:16', '2019-10-30 09:24:16', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Marcellus</a>, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 09:24:16', '2019-10-30 09:24:16', '', 38, 'http://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2060, 1, '2019-10-30 11:05:46', '2019-10-30 11:05:46', '<em>Published on: 27 August, 2019</em>\n\n<strong>The Marwari community serves as a case study of durable and extensive collaboration <u>without</u> the need for a dominant leader to oversee such an endeavour. This sort of community-based collaboration provides richer insights than B-School paradigms into why some teams succeed and others fail.      </strong>\n\n<em>“…read the sub-text and you will find that it spells ‘family’. It is the tie that has underpinned these businesses and is, often self-admittedly, the force that powers the risk-takers to…take risks….the Marwaris take the family in ‘family-owned business’ seriously. The most powerful industrialist will, even in the boardroom, rush to touch an elder relative’s feet as a greeting. Deferring to the older generation may be an archaic notion, but it is also a sign of respect that prevents the delicate balance of commerce and emotion from unravelling…” </em>–<strong> Abhilasha Khaitan in the 17<sup>th</sup> March 2014 edition of Forbes India </strong>\n\n<strong>Looking at collaboration from a different angle</strong>\nUsually when the question “Why do some teams collaborate whilst others don’t?” is asked, the reflexive answer which pops into most of our minds is “It must be because some teams have great leaders and other don’t.” This tendency to see the world through the prism of the individual, her abilities and her greatness is a by-product of the liberal values which have been hammered into our heads courtesy the westernised education systems which most of us (in India and elsewhere) have grown up in.\n\nHowever, seeing successful collaboration amongst teams, within companies/societies/countries, through the prism of leadership doesn’t get us very far. Yes, Abraham Lincoln was a great leader and he steered America through the dark days of the Civil War by building a brilliant team (as described memorably by Doris Kearns Goodwin in her book “Team of Rivals” and as enacted by Daniel Day Lewis in the Oscar winning movie). However, a lesser man than Lincoln would have struggled to hold together the team that Lincoln built. The average CEO is likely to be in deep trouble if he followed Lincoln and built a team of rivals.\n\nSo, what are the broader societal values/qualities which lead to some teams/companies/societies pulling together so cohesively so that end result is much greater than the sum of the parts? We look for answers in the rich literature that has sprung up around India’s small (there are fewer than 9 million Marwaris in India) but spectacularly successful Marwari business community (for a table of prominent listed Marwari firms, see <a href=\"http://www.forbesindia.com/article/marwari-power/top-100-listed-marwariowned-companies/37407/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">http://www.forbesindia.com/article/marwari-power/top-100-listed-marwariowned-companies/37407/1</a>).\n\n<strong>Understanding collaboration as an incentive co-ordination game</strong>\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>A clear common goal: </strong>Aristotle said, <em>“Man is by nature a social animal; an individual who is unsocial naturally and not accidentally is either beneath our notice or more than human. Society is something that precedes the individual.”</em> What Aristotle seems to be driving at is that most of are naturally wired to collaborate to achieve common goals. Our parents, our teachers, our colleagues, our mentors are all collaborators in ensuring that we get the best that they can give. The clearer the common goal, the more aligned it is to our interests, the easier it is for us to collaborate with those around us.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Alignment of interests: </strong>Over a hundred years ago, and long before agency theory was developed by academics in American business schools, the Great Marwari Firms which controlled trade in India’s Ganga-Yamuna flood plains had created a system of incentives which aligned their managers’ interests with the promoters’. <em>“Until the First World War, the Tarachand Ghanshyamdas office or gaddi at 18, Mullick Street in Calcutta took up an entire floor….There were 89 clerks working there. The head manager, Chhaganlal Bhavsinghka, was paid the princely sum of Rs 250 a month…Besides their pay, the managers often received a share in the profits of the firm. Jainarain Poddar, the chief manager, testified in court that he received Rs 2-3 lakhs annually over a period of several years, probably his share of profits. Other branch managers had variously defined share of profits. The exact arrangements differed from firm to firm.”</em> (Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg)</li>\n 	<li><strong>Complimentarity of skillsets/interests: </strong>For a team to collaborate over an extended period of time to achieve a common goal there has to be avoidance of duplicating skillsets and responsibilities within the team. As soon as two people in a team realize that they have similar skillsets and responsibilities, politics kicks in to vitiate the atmosphere in the team. Long before HR managers had discovered ‘strength finders’ and skill maps, the Marwari Great Firms had figured out a unique solution to this problem: <em>“Managers and clerks in 1914 were mostly Shekhawati Aggarwals like the Poddars themselves….Some other Great Firms preferred Brahmin clerks to those from their own caste because it was perceived that they would be less likely to enter into competition with the original firm…The managers were regularly rotated and promoted. Harduttrai Prahladka joined the firm in 1860 in Calcutta and moved to the Mathura and Ramgarh branches, before leaving the firm. He returned as a branch manager in 1896.”</em>  (Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg)</li>\n 	<li><strong>Monitoring of performance alongside rules which provide rewards &amp; punishments: </strong>In her book ‘Business Maharajas’ (2000), Gita Piramal uses a quote from the industrialist Shashi Ruia to explain why the late Aditya Birla was so successful: <em>“The key to Aditya Birla’s success in lay in his ability to organize himself and everyone around him.” </em>She then quotes Birla himself as saying<em> “What do you do to attract people? You give them tremendous powers and independence whilst monitoring their performance…Watch the financials, intervene if necessary, decide what next industry to get into, and which ones to withdraw from.”</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Willingness to look beyond personal financial incentives: </strong>Several centuries before the term ‘to network’ became a verb, the Marwari community had understood the power of co-operation across vast networks. In common with what the Jews did in Europe, the Marwaris therefore groomed their children in a specific way: <em>“Communities and castes with a history of involvement in business orient their children…to the trade, applaud success and know how to help each other in business. It is for this reason that the psychological make-up of those who run businesses in crowded markets is often marked by </em><strong><em>n-affiliation</em></strong><em> (a psychological orientation to work social networks, as politicians do) rather than </em><strong><em>n-achievement</em></strong><em> [refers to an individual\'s desire for significant accomplishment, mastering of skills, control, or high standards]. In a study of small engineering shop owners in Howrah, Raymond Owens demonstrated that members of the Mahasiya caste, who were prominent among owners of shops, had high n-affiliation since their business success was dependent on networking with caste fellows. The other entrepreneurs who came from a wide variety of castes, usually upper-class ‘service castes’ (Brahmins, Kshatriyas, Baidyas), had high n-achievement…Everything in the environment of these young Marwari men assisted them in being successful in business. They had a first-class support network constituted by their traditional family firms, business groups and the community. When they arrived in a new place, they found a basa, which provided boarding, lodging and society. Their friends and relatives were already in business and could help them.” </em>(Source: ‘The Marwaris: From Jagat Seth To The Birlas’ (2014) by Thomas A.Timberg) [Square brackers and emphasis in bold is ours]</li>\n</ol>\nThe leader’s key roles in the context of a collaborative endeavour revolve around the creation, implementation and governance of the carrots &amp; sticks highlighted above. In her book ‘Business Maharajas’ (2000) Gita Piramal quotes the late Aditya Birla making a specific reference to Ratan Tata but one which is more generally applicable: <em>“If you don’t have systems, any individual will fail, and if you have systems but if don’t have a leader to lead the system, it will fail…I’m sure the Tatas have very good systems…I think there is a need to take some hard decisions which doesn’t come from guidance alone…Success is knocking confidence into Ratan.”</em>\n\nThat being said, complex collaborative endeavours cannot sustain just because of the leader. As elaborated above, the Marwaris are a supremely successful business community with proven ability to collaborate with each other within India and across national borders. And yet the Marwari community does NOT have a leader per se.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nThe most interesting aspect of meeting the management team of a company is NOT the meeting with the promoter. They are in fact the meetings, first with the layer of management which has direct contact with the promoter (usually the CEO and CFO) and then the meetings with the 4-5 people who report into the CEO. What we try to assess is whether the collective works together just because of the dominant leader or because they are bound together by a common purpose &amp; values, by complimentary skills and by a clearly laid out system of carrots &amp; sticks.\n\nLike most useful things in life, this construct is simple enough for us to explain it to you but as most company’s the world over have discovered, it is hard to successfully sustain this construct over long periods of time.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blog/\">http://marcellus.in/blog</a>\n<em><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/team/saurabh-mukherjea-cfa/\">Saurabh Mukherjea</a> is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.       </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this publication in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Collaboration Across Vast Networks: Lessons from the Marwaris', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1632-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 11:05:46', '2019-10-30 11:05:46', '', 1632, 'http://marcellus.in/1632-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2063, 1, '2019-10-30 12:17:17', '2019-10-30 12:17:17', '<em>Published on: 10 Sep, 2018</em>\n\n\"The writer-physician Atul Gawande has written about the phenomenon of \'positive deviants\' in the medical profession, that small set of players who are mired in the same environmental conditions as everyone else but stubbornly refuse to allow themselves to be constrained by conventional wisdoms, and as a consequence are able to identify fresh and often counter-traditional ways to address seemingly intractable problems. In business, I believe that there will always be positive deviants, brands that are exceptional, not because they are able to run harder or faster than the rest, but because at some fundamental level they have made a commitment to not taking the status quo for granted.\" – <strong>Youngme Moon in \'Different: Escaping the Competitive Herd\' (2010)</strong>\n\n<strong>Original Thinking + Focused Specialisation + Simplicity</strong>\n\nIn our first piece for The Ken, my friend – Anupam Gupta – and I concluded that the path to a more meaningful and successful life lies in deep specialisation allied to original thinking and simple rules. (Click here to read The Ken article: https://theken.com/story/tsundoku-mental-clutter/) No sooner was this piece published that we started consuming our own cooking i.e. applying this recipe to<a href=\"http://marcellus.in/our-team/\"> Marcellus Investment Managers</a>. In the process, my colleagues at <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Marcellus</a> and I came across a very interesting branch of marketing strategy – reverse positioned brands.\n\n<strong>Changing the playing field</strong>\n\nThe standard paradigm along which competition evolves in any sphere of life involves gradually upping the ante. So if you and I are Indian politicians and I call you a scoundrel, you will call me an even bigger scoundrel. I will then call you and your previous generation various names. You will then retaliate by saying that my last three generations were wasters and thus this linear escalation in abusive competition will continue.\n\nAs Younge Moon explains in her short, lucid book on marketing, in business life, the standard paradigm plays out as:\n<ul>\n 	<li>A company augments its value proposition by offering customers a new benefit.</li>\n 	<li>Customers are pleased.</li>\n 	<li>Competitors race to match (imitate) the augmentation.</li>\n 	<li>The augmentation becomes standard across the category.</li>\n 	<li>Satisfaction levels are recalibrated, which is to say that customers now feel entitled to what they were grateful for yesterday.</li>\n 	<li>Meanwhile, the expanded value proposition has expanded and the minimal requirements for competing in the category have gone up.</li>\n 	<li>Repeat step 1.</li>\n</ul>\nThe result of this iterative process in which everyone copies everyone else is that over time most of the players in the sector end up with very similar offerings. So, for 2 example, once upon a time, Jet Airways was markedly more comfortable than Indigo and Indigo was markedly cheaper than Jet. Now neither is Jet Airways significantly more comfortable that Indigo nor is Indigo significantly cheaper than Jet.\n\nIn this context, reverse positioned brands - i.e. brands which refuse to stick to the standard playbook - tend to change the paradigm and turn the industry on its head. When I was in college in the mid-1990s, I discovered the internet. I was clueless about technology and delighted to find Yahoo – a portal which would guide me to useful sites on sports, entertainment, travel, etc. From 1997 until 2000, I was a devoted Yahoo user. Then one day in 2001, a colleague told me about Google. Initially, I was puzzled by the emptiness of Google’s search engine page. It took me a while to understand that Google was a reverse positioned brand.\n\nYoungme Moon defines a reverse positioned brands as: \"<em>A reverse positioned brand is a very particular kind of idea brand, one that makes the deliberate decision to defy the augmentation trend in a category in which customers have come to expect augmentation. What this means is that there is a commitment to withholding benefits that the rest of the industry considers necessary to compete. Reverse brands say no where others say yes. And they do so openly…In business…there are few greater sins than failing to meet customer expectations. So nothing is likely to raise eyebrows more quickly than a decision to strip away benefits that consumers expect to receive. This is why the concept of reversal goes against every instinct a businessperson has. When the entire category is racing north, it is no trivial matter to point yourself south.\"</em>\n\n&nbsp;', 'Reverse Positioned Brands', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '346-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-10-30 12:17:17', '2019-10-30 12:17:17', '', 346, 'http://marcellus.in/346-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2070, 1, '2019-11-01 07:04:02', '2019-11-01 07:04:02', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"/newsletter/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 07:04:02', '2019-11-01 07:04:02', '', 38, 'https://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2076, 1, '2019-11-01 10:56:04', '2019-11-01 10:56:04', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Great lenders (banks as well as NBFCs), which are Consistent Compounders, benefit significantly in the aftermath of a financial crisis. This is because: (a) when the competition struggles to raise funds during &amp; after a crisis, great lenders have access to adequate liquidity; and (b) as competition’s ability to lend reduces, great lenders can pick and choose quality borrowers, leading to better net interest margins (NIMs), higher loan book growth, lower NPAs and hence better RoEs. However, it is also worth bearing in mind that as the crisis intensifies, great lenders might witness some short-term moderation in loan book growth (which then leads to a temporary rise in NPA ratios) as it is always prudent to maintain discipline while selecting borrowers during a deteriorating macro environment. In this month’s newsletter we highlight the journey of great lenders through the 1997 and 2008 financial crisis, and why we continue holding HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank in our portfolio during the ongoing financial crisis.</strong>\r\n\r\n“These bubbles and crises seem to be deep-rooted in human nature and inherent to the capitalist system. By one count there have been sixty different crises since the early seventeenth century—the first documented bank panic can, however, be dated to A.D. 33 when the Emperor Tiberius had to inject one million gold pieces of public money into the Roman financial system to keep it from collapsing… Watching central bankers and finance officials grappling with the current situation—trying one thing after another to restore confidence, throwing everything they can at the problem, coping daily with unexpected and startling shifts in market sentiment—reinforces the lesson that there is no magic bullet or simple formula for dealing with financial panics” – <strong>Liaquat Ahamed in ‘Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World’ (2009)</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31st October 2019</strong>\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2077 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"369\" />\r\n\r\nThree financial stocks – HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank – together form a significant allocation in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP). Over the past year, as a host of banks and NBFCs faced their own set of troubles, we continue to stay invested in these three lenders in our clients’ portfolios. This newsletter summarizes the rationale for our conviction.\r\n\r\n<strong>Lessons from historical financial crises</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>What is certainly clear is that again and again, countries, banks, individuals, and firms take on excessive debt in good times without enough awareness of the risks that will follow when the inevitable recession hits. This time may seem different, but all too often a deeper look shows it is not... More money has been lost because of four words than at the point of a gun. Those words are ‘This time is different. </em>– <strong>Carmen Reinhart and and Kenneth Rogoff, ‘This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’</strong> <strong>(2009)</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2078 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"663\" height=\"318\" />\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in Exhibit 3 above, a few years of high loan book growth, low NPAs and economic boom are inevitably followed by low credit growth, high NPAs and recessionary fears. Good quality banks and NBFCs manoeuvre through these economic and financial cycles with razor-sharp focus on capital allocation, execution and underwriting and they do not get swayed by the emotions of greed and fear. Having said that, it is worth bearing in mind how loan book growth, NIMs (Net Interest Margins), NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) and P/E multiples of good quality lenders move during and after a crisis.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><u>Loan book growth:</u> Even for good banks and NBFCs, loan book growth tends to moderate during the crisis, although it remains much higher than the loan book growth reported by their peers. This moderation in growth is because of the heightened caution exercised by lenders as the external environment incrementally deteriorates. However, since the liability side of the balance sheet (funding) is comfortable through the crisis for these good lenders, the loan book growth rates accelerate after the crisis has bottomed out. This is due to market share gains in an environment where the liability side of the balance sheet is severely constrained for their peers.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>NIMs (Net Interest Margins):</u> If cost of funds rises during a liquidity crisis, NIMs for the good quality lenders can compress a bit during the crisis. However, once the crisis is over, the pricing power of the good quality lenders leads to an increase in their NIMs because competition is less aggressive in the aftermath of a crisis, given their weaker ability to raise funds.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>NPAs ratio (Non-Performing Assets as a % of total assets):</u> Although asset quality might deteriorate a bit during the crisis, the improved ability of great lenders to cherry-pick quality borrowers in the aftermath of the crisis (because of reduced competition) leads to a substantial improvement in the asset quality of good quality lenders in the years following a financial crisis. Moreover, this ratio reflects an optical increase to a certain extent during the crisis, because the loan book growth rates (i.e. the denominator) fall below historical averages while NPAs (the numerator) in absolute amounts might keep rising at the historical loan book growth rate. Similarly, during the years following the crisis, the ratio tends to show an optical decline as the loan book growth accelerates.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>P/E multiple:</u> P/E multiple of a high quality lender typically moves in the same direction as that of the broader market / financial services sector – which tends to be downward direction during a financial crisis. However, such a movement in the P/E multiple doesn’t matter much for good quality banks and NBFCs because:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>In the case of great lenders, earnings growth more than offsets P/E multiple compression within 12-24 months.</li>\r\n 	<li>P/E multiple compression reverses for the great banks and NBFCs because of the benefits highlighted around loan book growth, NIMs and NPAs in the three bullets above.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nGiven the current environment of gloom and doom for the lending stocks, in the next section we analyse how great lenders emerged as winners from such crises in the past – HDFC Ltd. from the NBFC crisis of the late 1990s and HDFC Bank from the global financial crisis of 2008-09.\r\n\r\n<strong>HDFC Ltd. during the NBFC crisis of the late 1990s and early 2000s</strong>\r\n\r\nThe Indian NBFC crisis in the 1990s was marred by fraudulent behaviour of large NBFCs, changing regulations, and eventually a shakeout in the NBFC sector. In 1997-98, CRB Capital, a financial Services conglomerate with a net worth of over Rs. 400 Cr and an asset base of Rs. 1,000 Cr (this was as big as ~15% of HDFC Limited’s loan book size then), which was even granted a provisional banking licence, duped millions of small investors of their investments in its mutual fund and in its fixed deposits.\r\n\r\nEven though CRB had a AAA credit rating (just like IL&amp;FS did before the ongoing crisis started), the auditors never pointed out any problems and CRB had 133 subsidiaries before the crisis. As the crisis deepened, the Government infused Rs. 2,550 Cr into three public sector banks, IFCI had to be bailed out with a Rs. 1,000 Cr package, NPAs of IDBI increased to 18% and Global Trust Bank’s networth turned negative (it had to be eventually merged with the Oriental Bank of Commerce). Subsequently, as the RBI tightened NBFC regulations, the number of NBFCs dropped to 7,855 in March, 1999 from 55,995 in March, 1995 i.e. over 80% of the NBFCs were shut down.\r\n\r\nExhibit 4 below shows how HDFC Ltd. reported an increase in GNPAs (Gross NPAs) by ~50% i.e. from 0.7% in FY98 to 1% in FY99. Growth in PAT and loan book moderated and the P/E ratio compressed by ~40% in FY99. However, after the crisis, HDFC Ltd’s loan book growth accelerated from 18% in FY99 to 31% in FY01 and 30% in FY02, and its PAT growth went back to over 20% CAGR after the crisis, from as low as 14% during the crisis. As a result, despite a 40% cut in its P/E multiple in FY99, over the five year period from March 1998 to March 2003, HDFC Ltd. delivered a share price CAGR of +16%, while the Sensex delivered a -5% CAGR (<em>negative</em>) during the same period.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2079 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"208\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>HDFC Bank during the 2008-09 global financial crisis</strong>\r\n\r\nDuring the 2008-09 crisis, Indian NBFCs had a massive ALM mismatch (asset-liability-management) - over 50% of the NBFCs had borrowings which matured within one year while average asset duration was 3 years. Disbursements for several NBFCs were down by 50-70% due to lack of funds. In September 2008, NBFCs’ borrowings from mutual funds had increased to 45% of total borrowings vs. 30% in March 2006. ICICI Bank, the largest private sector bank at that time, saw large delinquencies on its retail book - GNPAs for ICICI Bank rose 100bps from 3.3% in FY08 to 4.3% in FY09. Immediately after the Lehman crisis subsided, as part of its attempt to deal with inflation, the RBI changed the policy rate a record 13 times between Apr’10 and Oct’11, increasing it from 3.25% to 8.50% during the period.\r\n\r\nIn an uncertain and volatile environment with the lending system afflicted by rising NPAs, HDFC Bank continued to cautiously grow its retail loan book. HDFC Bank suffered the same fate as HDFC Ltd. in the previous crisis: its NPAs as a % of loan book increased by ~50% and P/E ratio compressed by ~40% in FY09 (see Exhibit 5 below). Then, in the years following the crisis, HDFC Bank was able to rapidly gain market share and its asset quality became better than the pre-crisis years. As competition reduced, yields increased and HDFC Bank was able to offset the asset quality risk with better pricing. PAT growth was sustained at ~30% CAGR both before as well as after the crisis. As a result, despite a 40% cut in its P/E multiple in FY09, over the five year period of Mar’08 to Mar’13, HDFC Bank delivered a share price CAGR of +26%, while the Sensex delivered a +4% CAGR during the same period.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2116 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image55-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"228\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>What differentiates the lending stocks which we hold in our clients’ portfolios, from their competitors?</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“With little differentiation in finished products (loans and services) and no aspirational value attached to these products, low raw material cost (as measured by the cost of funds) and superior execution are the only two key competitive advantages for a top-quality retail bank. Moreover, a hugely leveraged balance sheet (10x leverage is normal for banks) means that below-par credit selection usually has a disproportionately large adverse impact on the bank’s profitability.” - </em><strong>‘The Unusual Billionaires’ by Saurabh Mukherjea (2016) – see chapter 7 on HDFC Bank. </strong>\r\n\r\nApart from having their own individual strengths, the commonalities that differentiate HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance from their competitors are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Good corporate governance;</li>\r\n 	<li>Focus on consistent and sustainable long-term growth across market cycles;</li>\r\n 	<li>Prudent credit underwriting; and</li>\r\n 	<li>Management teams with an innate sense of capital allocation.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHighlighted below is a summary of our stock-specific views on each of these three lenders.\r\n\r\n<u>HDFC Bank</u>\r\n\r\nHDFC Bank’s strength lies in its consistent execution and a focus on long term profitable growth. Over the years, HDFC Bank has developed such stringent systems and processes that business continuity, irrespective of employee turnover, is no longer a challenge. For instance, a newly appointed HDFC Bank collection manager who had previously worked with another lender confessed to us that <em>“at HDFC Bank I have to sit in front of the system all day long and keep feeding it data, there is no need for any human intervention or offline coordination. However, the number of hours that HDFC Bank makes its employees work is much more than any other lender.” </em>This is reflected in HDFC Bank’s consistent growth and NPA metrics. Its loan book has grown by more than 15% in each of the previous 11 years with a 24% CAGR over FY09-19. Its PAT has grown at a CAGR of 26% during the same period. HDFC Bank’s average net NPAs over FY09-19 have been 0.31%, substantially lower than that of its peers.\r\n\r\nOver the years, HDFC Bank has focused on procuring low cost funds (cost of funds at 4.8% is one of the lowest in the industry), high quality assets (as seen in the NPA numbers above) and impeccable execution. HDFC Bank’s consistently high RoE (average of 19% over FY09-19) is a testament to its robust business model and capital allocation skills. The strength of the ‘HDFC’ brand, the ability to execute relentlessly despite its gigantic size and its vast omni channel distribution network will enable HDFC Bank to keep growing consistently in the coming years.\r\n\r\n<u>Bajaj Finance</u>\r\n\r\nBajaj Finance (BAF) is the sole NBFC in our portfolio. Amongst Indian NBFCs, BAF appears to be unique in its ability to balance profitable growth and risk by combining technology and high-quality execution. BAF’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 47% over FY09-19 (more than 15% loan book growth in each of the last 11 years). PAT has grown at a CAGR of 61% during the same period (FY09-19). Along with the stellar loan book growth, BAF has been able to maintain steady asset quality with average net NPAs of 1.03% during FY09-19 (average net NPA ratio has been 0.40% during FY11-19).\r\n\r\nIn the recent past, as much as 70% of BAF’s incremental loans have been given to its existing customers. In a relatively short period of time, BAF has emerged as the only sizeable diversified NBFC in India – it offers consumer durable loans, housing finance, auto loans, gold loans, loan-against-property as well as credit cards. This has ensured that it has a diverse set of growth drivers in its portfolio which help it reduce cyclicality in growth and asset quality. BAF has a stable liability profile with deposits now forming 16% of the liability mix, up from 1% in FY14. Thanks to disciplined asset liability management and the implicit backing BAF receives from its parent’s mighty balance sheet (Rs 16,368 crores of net cash in Bajaj Auto’s balance sheet), helps BAF keep funding costs in check during a crisis. As a result, BAF was one of the few NBFCs which had access to adequate liquidity post the recent IL&amp;FS crisis. Over FY12-19, on average only ~8% of Bajaj’s liabilities were raised in the form of short-term borrowings (CPs).\r\n\r\nBAF has been proactive in making timely investments in technology and automation, which over a period of time, will help reduce operating and delivery costs. Given its multiple levers of growth, adequate access to liquidity and a long run-way of growth available to it from the financial sector, BAF is poised to rapidly gain market share over the next few years.\r\n\r\n<u>Kotak Bank</u>\r\n\r\nKotak has demonstrated highly consistent and healthy historical track record – a pre-requisite for inclusion in our Consistent Compounders portfolio. Kotak’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 27% over FY09 – FY19. Consolidated earnings growth CAGR during the same period (FY09-19) was at 27%. Kotak’s loan book grew by greater than 15% YoY in 9 out of the last 11 years. Even more interestingly, Kotak’s net NPA ratio has been at 0.87% during FY09-FY19 (one of the lowest in the industry). Over the last five years, while other banks have struggled with asset quality issues in their corporate loan book, Kotak’s corporate loan book has grown at more than 20% CAGR in a challenging environment. Kotak’s key strengths include: <strong>(a)</strong> CASA (current account savings account) contributes to 53% of its total funds (up from 30% in FY13) – this is the stickiest source of funding which is related to trust built with its retail customers, and most importantly it helps in understanding the customers better; <strong>(b)</strong> prudence in managing risk, which is reflected in its NPA numbers; <strong>(c)</strong> anticipating market cycles well ahead of peers; and <strong>(d)</strong> capital allocation discipline.\r\n\r\nIn an industry which is so closely linked to the macro environment, Kotak’s ability to maneuver through market cycles with exceptional capital allocation sets it apart from competition. The management has been successful in creating a conservative credit culture and has ingrained the ethos of entrepreneurship, innovation and customer centricity in its employees. A strong retail franchise, exceptional management and healthy capitalization (Tier1 capital of 17.6%), place Kotak Mahindra Bank in a sweet spot to capitalize on growth opportunities and gain market share especially as other banks and NBFCs struggle with poor asset quality and difficulties in raising low cost funds.\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nHistory may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. We believe that the ongoing financial crisis will turn out to be a big positive for the three lenders in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. As was also witnessed recently, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and Bajaj Finance emerged largely unscathed from the IL&amp;FS debacle - the only impact they suffered was a short-term de-rating of multiples while business continued as usual for these companies.  Our portfolio action in this circumstance is to stay away from poor quality lenders and to keep focusing on high quality players which have stability on both the liability as well as asset side of their balance sheet. As highlighted in our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/quantifying-the-futility-of-timing-the-market/\">March, 2019 newsletter</a> it is futile to time the market and therefore instead of worrying about timing our entry and exit into these well managed lenders, we are spending most of our time and energy on further deepening our understanding of these great lenders.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Lenders In Our Portfolio Will Gain From The Ongoing Crisis', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:36', '2020-01-20 10:56:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2076', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2120, 1, '2019-11-04 06:42:51', '2019-11-04 06:42:51', 'This insightful interview with Amit Sheth, the promoter of Orbit Lifesciences, is a rare example of a promoter talking rationally and articulately about the ongoing economic slowdown. [Most promoters’ interviews regarding the slowdown span the narrow spectrum from begging the Government for help to thanking the Government for help!]\r\nFirst off, BloombergQuint gives you a sense of the scale of the problem facing smaller pharma companies: “Second-generation entrepreneur Amit Sheth followed his father into India’s pharma industry, nurturing a near 40-year-old business to a point where it now deals in finished formulations, active pharmaceutical ingredients and their import and export to 50 countries around the world. The company even manufactures for some of India’s bigger drugmakers. But Sheth is now in a quandary rarely experienced by the industry.”\r\nIn Sheth’s own words: <em>“Pharma is the only sector in the world which has never, ever de-grown globally, which is primarily the essential nature of the goods. This is the first time ever, in the domestic pharma industry, that as the contract manufacturer we are facing de-growth of the entire assembly belt.”</em>\r\nSo what are the problems facing a small pharma company like Orbit Lifesciences? Firstly, liquidity in the system is jammed and fund flow to the sector has been crunched: <em>““Jammed liquidity” and stifling regulatory measures are making it difficult for domestic firms to innovate, contribute and compete in the developed markets, Sheth said…According to Sheth, lack of funds also limits companies like Orbit Lifesciences from realising their growth potential. India’s bid to clean up its public sector banks, coupled with a string of defaults in some non-banking financial companies, has left small and medium enterprises starving for cash. While Sheth supports the need to clean up the country’s financial system, he said small players like his are going to suffer in the short term. Barring one or two NBFCs, none of the institutions are lending money, Sheth said… “Our ability to grow the business within a limited amount of capital is becoming less and less, day by day... Right now, the situation is such that in spite of having a good opportunity to grow, globally and domestically, due to the dearth of capital I think a lot of SMEs are impacted,” he said. This puts the onus on the government to ease the fund crunch, Sheth said, adding the country is far behind developed markets when it comes to credit cost. “Naturally, with this burden of interest, it is not allowing us to do business and expand business because we constantly have the pressure to pay back the interest.”</em>\r\nThe second challenge is the growing burden of regulatory compliance vis a vis a battery of regulators, in India and abroad. Sheth says, <em>“The insurance regulatory body, IRDAI, is getting stricter by the day. Pharmaceuticals, the DCGI (Drug Controller General of India), the FDA are getting stricter by the day...at times we do feel that they are so overwhelming, and at times you feel that it is overpowering you...and your growth is getting stopped and it is getting curtailed due to the over-emphasis of the regulations…For example, if I bring in innovative products from outside of India which is not there, we need to get in the registration. Earlier it used to take six to eight months. Now it is taking us 12-18 months. Probably, 24 months…“Is there any one single molecule in the pharma industry which is an innovation by India? No. Because there are no incentives for research and development in the pharma industry, which is sad because today India has the best skill labour, best technical brains, best technology in pharmaceuticals and ideally better infrastructure in pharmaceuticals for the global play than any other country in thein the world. Despite that, we are not able to come up with a single molecule which is innovation or an original research product.”</em>\r\nMarcellus’ own take on the ongoing economic slowdown can be found here:  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>', 'Real Economy Check: ‘Jammed Liquidity’ To ‘Overwhelming Regulations’ Hurting Small Drugmakers, Says Orbit Lifesciences', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1934-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:42:51', '2019-11-04 06:42:51', '', 1934, 'https://marcellus.in/1934-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2081, 1, '2019-11-04 03:36:57', '2019-11-04 03:36:57', '&nbsp;\n\n<strong>Great lenders (banks as well as NBFCs), which are Consistent Compounders, benefit significantly in the aftermath of a financial crisis. This is because: (a) when the competition struggles to raise funds during &amp; after a crisis, great lenders have access to adequate liquidity; and (b) as competition’s ability to lend reduces, great lenders can pick and choose quality borrowers, leading to better net interest margins (NIMs), higher loan book growth, lower NPAs and hence better RoEs. However, it is also worth bearing in mind that as the crisis intensifies, great lenders might witness some short-term moderation in loan book growth (which then leads to a temporary rise in NPA ratios) as it is always prudent to maintain discipline while selecting borrowers during a deteriorating macro environment. In this month’s newsletter we highlight the journey of great lenders through the 1997 and 2008 financial crisis, and why we continue holding HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank in our portfolio during the ongoing financial crisis.</strong>\n\n“These bubbles and crises seem to be deep-rooted in human nature and inherent to the capitalist system. By one count there have been sixty different crises since the early seventeenth century—the first documented bank panic can, however, be dated to A.D. 33 when the Emperor Tiberius had to inject one million gold pieces of public money into the Roman financial system to keep it from collapsing… Watching central bankers and finance officials grappling with the current situation—trying one thing after another to restore confidence, throwing everything they can at the problem, coping daily with unexpected and startling shifts in market sentiment—reinforces the lesson that there is no magic bullet or simple formula for dealing with financial panics” – <strong>Liaquat Ahamed in ‘Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World’ (2009)</strong>\n\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31st October 2019</strong>\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2077 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"369\" />\n\nThree financial stocks – HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Kotak Mahindra Bank – together form a significant allocation in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP). Over the past year, as a host of banks and NBFCs faced their own set of troubles, we continue to stay invested in these three lenders in our clients’ portfolios. This newsletter summarizes the rationale for our conviction.\n\n<strong>Lessons from historical financial crises</strong>\n\n<em>What is certainly clear is that again and again, countries, banks, individuals, and firms take on excessive debt in good times without enough awareness of the risks that will follow when the inevitable recession hits. This time may seem different, but all too often a deeper look shows it is not... More money has been lost because of four words than at the point of a gun. Those words are ‘This time is different. </em>– <strong>Carmen Reinhart and and Kenneth Rogoff, ‘This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’</strong> <strong>(2009)</strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2078 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"663\" height=\"318\" />\n\nAs highlighted in Exhibit 3 above, a few years of high loan book growth, low NPAs and economic boom are inevitably followed by low credit growth, high NPAs and recessionary fears. Good quality banks and NBFCs manoeuvre through these economic and financial cycles with razor-sharp focus on capital allocation, execution and underwriting and they do not get swayed by the emotions of greed and fear. Having said that, it is worth bearing in mind how loan book growth, NIMs (Net Interest Margins), NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) and P/E multiples of good quality lenders move during and after a crisis.\n<ul>\n 	<li><u>Loan book growth:</u> Even for good banks and NBFCs, loan book growth tends to moderate during the crisis, although it remains much higher than the loan book growth reported by their peers. This moderation in growth is because of the heightened caution exercised by lenders as the external environment incrementally deteriorates. However, since the liability side of the balance sheet (funding) is comfortable through the crisis for these good lenders, the loan book growth rates accelerate after the crisis has bottomed out. This is due to market share gains in an environment where the liability side of the balance sheet is severely constrained for their peers.</li>\n 	<li><u>NIMs (Net Interest Margins):</u> If cost of funds rises during a liquidity crisis, NIMs for the good quality lenders can compress a bit during the crisis. However, once the crisis is over, the pricing power of the good quality lenders leads to an increase in their NIMs because competition is less aggressive in the aftermath of a crisis, given their weaker ability to raise funds.</li>\n 	<li><u>NPAs ratio (Non-Performing Assets as a % of total assets):</u> Although asset quality might deteriorate a bit during the crisis, the improved ability of great lenders to cherry-pick quality borrowers in the aftermath of the crisis (because of reduced competition) leads to a substantial improvement in the asset quality of good quality lenders in the years following a financial crisis. Moreover, this ratio reflects an optical increase to a certain extent during the crisis, because the loan book growth rates (i.e. the denominator) fall below historical averages while NPAs (the numerator) in absolute amounts might keep rising at the historical loan book growth rate. Similarly, during the years following the crisis, the ratio tends to show an optical decline as the loan book growth accelerates.</li>\n 	<li><u>P/E multiple:</u> P/E multiple of a high quality lender typically moves in the same direction as that of the broader market / financial services sector – which tends to be downward direction during a financial crisis. However, such a movement in the P/E multiple doesn’t matter much for good quality banks and NBFCs because:\n<ul>\n 	<li>In the case of great lenders, earnings growth more than offsets P/E multiple compression within 12-24 months.</li>\n 	<li>P/E multiple compression reverses for the great banks and NBFCs because of the benefits highlighted around loan book growth, NIMs and NPAs in the three bullets above.</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\nGiven the current environment of gloom and doom for the lending stocks, in the next section we analyse how great lenders emerged as winners from such crises in the past – HDFC Ltd. from the NBFC crisis of the late 1990s and HDFC Bank from the global financial crisis of 2008-09.\n\n<strong>HDFC Ltd. during the NBFC crisis of the late 1990s and early 2000s</strong>\n\nThe Indian NBFC crisis in the 1990s was marred by fraudulent behaviour of large NBFCs, changing regulations, and eventually a shakeout in the NBFC sector. In 1997-98, CRB Capital, a financial Services conglomerate with a net worth of over Rs. 400 Cr and an asset base of Rs. 1,000 Cr (this was as big as ~15% of HDFC Limited’s loan book size then), which was even granted a provisional banking licence, duped millions of small investors of their investments in its mutual fund and in its fixed deposits.\n\nEven though CRB had a AAA credit rating (just like IL&amp;FS did before the ongoing crisis started), the auditors never pointed out any problems and CRB had 133 subsidiaries before the crisis. As the crisis deepened, the Government infused Rs. 2,550 Cr into three public sector banks, IFCI had to be bailed out with a Rs. 1,000 Cr package, NPAs of IDBI increased to 18% and Global Trust Bank’s networth turned negative (it had to be eventually merged with the Oriental Bank of Commerce). Subsequently, as the RBI tightened NBFC regulations, the number of NBFCs dropped to 7,855 in March, 1999 from 55,995 in March, 1995 i.e. over 80% of the NBFCs were shut down.\n\nExhibit 4 below shows how HDFC Ltd. reported an increase in GNPAs (Gross NPAs) by ~50% i.e. from 0.7% in FY98 to 1% in FY99. Growth in PAT and loan book moderated and the P/E ratio compressed by ~40% in FY99. However, after the crisis, HDFC Ltd’s loan book growth accelerated from 18% in FY99 to 31% in FY01 and 30% in FY02, and its PAT growth went back to over 20% CAGR after the crisis, from as low as 14% during the crisis. As a result, despite a 40% cut in its P/E multiple in FY99, over the five year period from March 1998 to March 2003, HDFC Ltd. delivered a share price CAGR of +16%, while the Sensex delivered a -5% CAGR (<em>negative</em>) during the same period.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2079 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"208\" />\n\n<strong>HDFC Bank during the 2008-09 global financial crisis</strong>\n\nDuring the 2008-09 crisis, Indian NBFCs had a massive ALM mismatch (asset-liability-management) - over 50% of the NBFCs had borrowings which matured within one year while average asset duration was 3 years. Disbursements for several NBFCs were down by 50-70% due to lack of funds. In September 2008, NBFCs’ borrowings from mutual funds had increased to 45% of total borrowings vs. 30% in March 2006. ICICI Bank, the largest private sector bank at that time, saw large delinquencies on its retail book - GNPAs for ICICI Bank rose 100bps from 3.3% in FY08 to 4.3% in FY09. Immediately after the Lehman crisis subsided, as part of its attempt to deal with inflation, the RBI changed the policy rate a record 13 times between Apr’10 and Oct’11, increasing it from 3.25% to 8.50% during the period.\n\nIn an uncertain and volatile environment with the lending system afflicted by rising NPAs, HDFC Bank continued to cautiously grow its retail loan book. HDFC Bank suffered the same fate as HDFC Ltd. in the previous crisis: its NPAs as a % of loan book increased by ~50% and P/E ratio compressed by ~40% in FY09 (see Exhibit 5 below). Then, in the years following the crisis, HDFC Bank was able to rapidly gain market share and its asset quality became better than the pre-crisis years. As competition reduced, yields increased and HDFC Bank was able to offset the asset quality risk with better pricing. PAT growth was sustained at ~30% CAGR both before as well as after the crisis. As a result, despite a 40% cut in its P/E multiple in FY09, over the five year period of Mar’08 to Mar’13, HDFC Bank delivered a share price CAGR of +26%, while the Sensex delivered a +4% CAGR during the same period.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2116 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image55-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"228\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong>HDFC Bank during the 2008-09 global financial crisis</strong>\n\nDuring the 2008-09 crisis, Indian NBFCs had a massive ALM mismatch (asset-liability-management) - over 50% of the NBFCs had borrowings which matured within one year while average asset duration was 3 years. Disbursements for several NBFCs were down by 50-70% due to lack of funds. In September 2008, NBFCs’ borrowings from mutual funds had increased to 45% of total borrowings vs. 30% in March 2006. ICICI Bank, the largest private sector bank at that time, saw large delinquencies on its retail book - GNPAs for ICICI Bank rose 100bps from 3.3% in FY08 to 4.3% in FY09. Immediately after the Lehman crisis subsided, as part of its attempt to deal with inflation, the RBI changed the policy rate a record 13 times between Apr’10 and Oct’11, increasing it from 3.25% to 8.50% during the period.\n\nIn an uncertain and volatile environment with the lending system afflicted by rising NPAs, HDFC Bank continued to cautiously grow its retail loan book. HDFC Bank suffered the same fate as HDFC Ltd. in the previous crisis: its NPAs as a % of loan book increased by ~50% and P/E ratio compressed by ~40% in FY09 (see Exhibit 5 below). Then, in the years following the crisis, HDFC Bank was able to rapidly gain market share and its asset quality became better than the pre-crisis years. As competition reduced, yields increased and HDFC Bank was able to offset the asset quality risk with better pricing. PAT growth was sustained at ~30% CAGR both before as well as after the crisis. As a result, despite a 40% cut in its P/E multiple in FY09, over the five year period of Mar’08 to Mar’13, HDFC Bank delivered a share price CAGR of +26%, while the Sensex delivered a +4% CAGR during the same period.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2115 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image55.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"228\" />\n\n<strong>What differentiates the lending stocks which we hold in our clients’ portfolios, from their competitors?</strong>\n\n<em>“With little differentiation in finished products (loans and services) and no aspirational value attached to these products, low raw material cost (as measured by the cost of funds) and superior execution are the only two key competitive advantages for a top-quality retail bank. Moreover, a hugely leveraged balance sheet (10x leverage is normal for banks) means that below-par credit selection usually has a disproportionately large adverse impact on the bank’s profitability.” - </em><strong>‘The Unusual Billionaires’ by Saurabh Mukherjea (2016) – see chapter 7 on HDFC Bank. </strong>\n\nApart from having their own individual strengths, the commonalities that differentiate HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance from their competitors are:\n<ul>\n 	<li>Good corporate governance;</li>\n 	<li>Focus on consistent and sustainable long-term growth across market cycles;</li>\n 	<li>Prudent credit underwriting; and</li>\n 	<li>Management teams with an innate sense of capital allocation.</li>\n</ul>\nHighlighted below is a summary of our stock-specific views on each of these three lenders.\n\n<u>HDFC Bank</u>\n\nHDFC Bank’s strength lies in its consistent execution and a focus on long term profitable growth. Over the years, HDFC Bank has developed such stringent systems and processes that business continuity, irrespective of employee turnover, is no longer a challenge. For instance, a newly appointed HDFC Bank collection manager who had previously worked with another lender confessed to us that <em>“at HDFC Bank I have to sit in front of the system all day long and keep feeding it data, there is no need for any human intervention or offline coordination. However, the number of hours that HDFC Bank makes its employees work is much more than any other lender.” </em>This is reflected in HDFC Bank’s consistent growth and NPA metrics. Its loan book has grown by more than 15% in each of the previous 11 years with a 24% CAGR over FY09-19. Its PAT has grown at a CAGR of 26% during the same period. HDFC Bank’s average net NPAs over FY09-19 have been 0.31%, substantially lower than that of its peers.\n\nOver the years, HDFC Bank has focused on procuring low cost funds (cost of funds at 4.8% is one of the lowest in the industry), high quality assets (as seen in the NPA numbers above) and impeccable execution. HDFC Bank’s consistently high RoE (average of 19% over FY09-19) is a testament to its robust business model and capital allocation skills. The strength of the ‘HDFC’ brand, the ability to execute relentlessly despite its gigantic size and its vast omni channel distribution network will enable HDFC Bank to keep growing consistently in the coming years.\n\n<u>Bajaj Finance</u>\n\nBajaj Finance (BAF) is the sole NBFC in our portfolio. Amongst Indian NBFCs, BAF appears to be unique in its ability to balance profitable growth and risk by combining technology and high-quality execution. BAF’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 47% over FY09-19 (more than 15% loan book growth in each of the last 11 years). PAT has grown at a CAGR of 61% during the same period (FY09-19). Along with the stellar loan book growth, BAF has been able to maintain steady asset quality with average net NPAs of 1.03% during FY09-19 (average net NPA ratio has been 0.40% during FY11-19).\n\nIn the recent past, as much as 70% of BAF’s incremental loans have been given to its existing customers. In a relatively short period of time, BAF has emerged as the only sizeable diversified NBFC in India – it offers consumer durable loans, housing finance, auto loans, gold loans, loan-against-property as well as credit cards. This has ensured that it has a diverse set of growth drivers in its portfolio which help it reduce cyclicality in growth and asset quality. BAF has a stable liability profile with deposits now forming 16% of the liability mix, up from 1% in FY14. Thanks to disciplined asset liability management and the implicit backing BAF receives from its parent’s mighty balance sheet (Rs 16,368 crores of net cash in Bajaj Auto’s balance sheet), helps BAF keep funding costs in check during a crisis. As a result, BAF was one of the few NBFCs which had access to adequate liquidity post the recent IL&amp;FS crisis. Over FY12-19, on average only ~8% of Bajaj’s liabilities were raised in the form of short-term borrowings (CPs).\n\nBAF has been proactive in making timely investments in technology and automation, which over a period of time, will help reduce operating and delivery costs. Given its multiple levers of growth, adequate access to liquidity and a long run-way of growth available to it from the financial sector, BAF is poised to rapidly gain market share over the next few years.\n\n<u>Kotak Bank</u>\n\nKotak has demonstrated highly consistent and healthy historical track record – a pre-requisite for inclusion in our Consistent Compounders portfolio. Kotak’s loan book has grown at a CAGR of 27% over FY09 – FY19. Consolidated earnings growth CAGR during the same period (FY09-19) was at 27%. Kotak’s loan book grew by greater than 15% YoY in 9 out of the last 11 years. Even more interestingly, Kotak’s net NPA ratio has been at 0.87% during FY09-FY19 (one of the lowest in the industry). Over the last five years, while other banks have struggled with asset quality issues in their corporate loan book, Kotak’s corporate loan book has grown at more than 20% CAGR in a challenging environment. Kotak’s key strengths include: <strong>(a)</strong> CASA (current account savings account) contributes to 53% of its total funds (up from 30% in FY13) – this is the stickiest source of funding which is related to trust built with its retail customers, and most importantly it helps in understanding the customers better; <strong>(b)</strong> prudence in managing risk, which is reflected in its NPA numbers; <strong>(c)</strong> anticipating market cycles well ahead of peers; and <strong>(d)</strong> capital allocation discipline.\n\nIn an industry which is so closely linked to the macro environment, Kotak’s ability to maneuver through market cycles with exceptional capital allocation sets it apart from competition. The management has been successful in creating a conservative credit culture and has ingrained the ethos of entrepreneurship, innovation and customer centricity in its employees. A strong retail franchise, exceptional management and healthy capitalization (Tier1 capital of 17.6%), place Kotak Mahindra Bank in a sweet spot to capitalize on growth opportunities and gain market share especially as other banks and NBFCs struggle with poor asset quality and difficulties in raising low cost funds.\n\n<strong> </strong><strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\nHistory may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. We believe that the ongoing financial crisis will turn out to be a big positive for the three lenders in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio. As was also witnessed recently, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and Bajaj Finance emerged largely unscathed from the IL&amp;FS debacle - the only impact they suffered was a short-term de-rating of multiples while business continued as usual for these companies.  Our portfolio action in this circumstance is to stay away from poor quality lenders and to keep focusing on high quality players which have stability on both the liability as well as asset side of their balance sheet. As highlighted in our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/quantifying-the-futility-of-timing-the-market/\">March, 2019 newsletter</a> it is futile to time the market and therefore instead of worrying about timing our entry and exit into these well managed lenders, we are spending most of our time and energy on further deepening our understanding of these great lenders.\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em> </em><em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\n\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;', 'The Lenders In Our Portfolio Will Gain From The Ongoing Crisis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2076-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 03:36:57', '2019-11-04 03:36:57', '', 2076, 'https://marcellus.in/2076-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2115, 1, '2019-11-04 03:28:57', '2019-11-04 03:28:57', '', 'image55', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'image55', '', '', '2019-11-04 03:28:57', '2019-11-04 03:28:57', '', 2076, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/image55.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2122, 1, '2019-11-04 06:47:44', '2019-11-04 06:47:44', 'The arresting piece contends that “Nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.”\r\nThe article begins with several examples of how quickly authoritarian governments cave-in when faced with civil protest. It then says that civil disobedience is not only the moral way to bring about change, it is also the most effective way to bring about political change.\r\nErica Chenoweth, a political scientist at Harvard University “found that nonviolent campaigns are twice as likely to achieve their goals as violent campaigns. And although the exact dynamics will depend on many factors, she has shown it takes around 3.5% of the population actively participating in the protests to ensure serious political change.”\r\n“Working with Maria Stephan, a researcher at the ICNC, Chenoweth performed an extensive review of the literature on civil resistance and social movements from 1900 to 2006 – a data set then corroborated with other experts in the field. They primarily considered attempts to bring about regime change. A movement was considered a success if it fully achieved its goals both within a year of its peak engagement and as a direct result of its activities. A regime change resulting from foreign military intervention would not be considered a success, for instance. A campaign was considered violent, meanwhile, if it involved bombings, kidnappings, the destruction of infrastructure – or any other physical harm to people or property.\r\n“We were trying to apply a pretty hard test to nonviolent resistance as a strategy,” Chenoweth says. (The criteria were so strict that India’s independence movement was not considered as evidence in favour of nonviolent protest in Chenoweth and Stephan’s analysis – since Britain’s dwindling military resources were considered to have been a deciding factor, even if the protests themselves were also a huge influence.)\r\nBy the end of this process, they had collected data from 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns. And their results – which were published in their book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict – were striking.\r\nOverall, nonviolent campaigns were twice as likely to succeed as violent campaigns: they led to political change 53% of the time compared to 26% for the violent protests.”\r\nSo why are non-violent campaigns so successful? Firstly, “nonviolent campaigns are more likely to succeed because they can recruit many more participants from a much broader demographic, which can cause severe disruption that paralyses normal urban life and the functioning of society.\r\nIn fact, of the 25 largest campaigns that they studied, 20 were nonviolent, and 14 of these were outright successes. Overall, the nonviolent campaigns attracted around four times as many participants (200,000) as the average violent campaign (50,000).”\r\nSecondly, you need surprisingly few people to bring about large scale change. “There weren’t any campaigns that had failed after they had achieved 3.5% participation during a peak event,” says Chenoweth – a phenomenon she has called the “3.5% rule”.\r\nThirdly, “Chenoweth points out that nonviolent protests also have fewer physical barriers to participation. You do not need to be fit and healthy to engage in a strike, whereas violent campaigns tend to lean on the support of physically fit young men. And while many forms of nonviolent protests also carry serious risks – just think of China’s response in Tiananmen Square in 1989 – Chenoweth argues that nonviolent campaigns are generally easier to discuss openly, which means that news of their occurrence can reach a wider audience. Violent movements, on the other hand, require a supply of weapons, and tend to rely on more secretive underground operations that might struggle to reach the general population.”\r\nSo if non-violent campaigns are so effective so often why do we harbour a mental image that guns &amp; bombs are needed to bring about change? It turns out that we are mentally anchored by the nonsense we are taught in school. ““So many of the histories that we tell one another focus on violence – and even if it is a total disaster, we still find a way to find victories within it,” she says. Yet we tend to ignore the success of peaceful protest, she says.\r\n“Ordinary people, all the time, are engaging in pretty heroic activities that are actually changing the way the world – and those deserve some notice and celebration as well.””', '\'The 3.5% rule: How a small minority can change the world', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2009-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:47:44', '2019-11-04 06:47:44', '', 2009, 'https://marcellus.in/2009-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2082, 1, '2019-11-01 11:55:07', '2019-11-01 11:55:07', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 11:55:07', '2019-11-01 11:55:07', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2683, 1, '2020-01-05 04:41:02', '2020-01-05 04:41:02', '<div>Amongst many ‘looking back at the decade’ studies, this one is quite fascinating. A study by Innosight of the most transformative businesses of the decade inspired by the need to attach a purpose to business which then drives transformation.\r\n<em>“the Business Roundtable [in August] released a statement signed by 181 CEOs stating that serving shareholders can no longer be the main purpose of a corporation; rather, it needs to be about serving society, through innovation, commitment to a healthy environment and economic opportunity for all.</em>\r\n<em>Our aim was to identify the global companies that have achieved the highest-impact business transformations over the past decade, using the same methodology as our 2017 study. Our research team screened all the firms in the S&amp;P 500 and Global 2000 using three lenses:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>New growth: How successful has the company been at creating new products, services, new markets, and new business models? This includes our primary metric: the percentage of revenue outside the core that can be attributed to new growth areas.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Repositioning the core: How effectively has the company adapted its traditional core business to changes or disruptions in its markets, giving its legacy business new life?</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Financials: Has the company posted strong financial and stock market performance, or has it turned around its business from losses or slow growth to get back on track? We looked at revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate), profitability, and stock price CAGR during the transformation period, which was different for each firm.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Our initial phase of research identified 52 companies making substantial progress towards strategic transformation—merely 3% of the public companies in our data set. From this second-round list, an Innosight partner panel voted to narrow it down to 27 finalists. For the third round, the following companies were selected as the Transformation 20 and ranked by a panel of management experts</em>\r\nThe list features Netflix at the top and includes companies like Adobe, Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba on the one hand and the likes of Siemens, Philips. Schneider and Fujifilm on the other.\r\n<em>“Each of these companies developed new-growth businesses outside its traditional core  which have become a significant share of the overall business. However, we believe it’s the decision to infuse a higher purpose into the culture, one that guides strategic decisions and gives clarity to everyday tasks, that has propelled these companies to success.</em>\r\n<em>The #1 company, Netflix, is a case in point. In 2013, CEO Reed Hastings released an 11-page memo to employees and investors detailing a  commitment to move from just distributing content digitally to become a leading producer of original content that could win Emmys and Oscars. As the memo said, “We don’t and can’t compete on breadth with Comcast, Sky, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, or Google. For us to be hugely successful we have to be a focused passion brand. Starbucks, not 7-Eleven. Southwest, not United. HBO, not Dish.” Since unveiling that new purpose, Netflix revenue has roughly tripled, its profits have multiplied 32-fold, and its stock CAGR has increased 57% annually, versus 11% for the S&amp;P 500.</em></div>', 'The Top 20 Business Transformations of the Last Decade', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-top-20-business-transformations-of-the-last-decade', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2683', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2682, 1, '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '3L-3S has been prolific in featuring the growing dominance of big tech, fascinated by its ability to take mankind forward yet concerned about the perils associated with it including threats to competitive capitalism, data privacy, etc. It is only appropriate we feature a TV series titled Silicon Valley (featuring on Hotstar in India) that brings out all that is good, bad and ugly about tech in a ludicrous enough way that it has been much loved across the world. The Emmy award winning series which completed airing its sixth and final season last month brings a lot of authenticity to it with its creator Mike Judge having involved valley bigwigs including Bill Gates, Marc Andreesen, Eric Schmidt, etc for the script. Indeed, Gates makes an appearance in one of the episodes and has indeed <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55227bea50&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55227bea50%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578370689600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHUyv3SQu08yWntdD6eTHIDRJRPPg\">blogged</a> saying “<em>If you want to understand Silicon Valley, watch Silicon Valley”. </em>The protagonist is the typical genius programmer but social awkward, clueless about managing teams or scaling up a business yet has his heart in the right place.\r\n<em>“Richard Hendricks, the chief executive officer of Pied Piper, the internet company he started five seasons earlier, is testifying before a Senate committee alongside executives from Facebook, Google, Amazon and, of course, Hooli, run by Hendricks’s archnemesis Gavin Belson. The hearing is about data privacy.</em>\r\n<em>When it’s Hendricks’s turn to speak, he gets up from his seat on the panel and starts pacing (“I just think better on my feet”), grabbing a bulky microphone box so the senators can hear him. Thomas Middleditch, who plays Hendricks, is a master of physical comedy, and the image of him walking back and forth with a big microphone box under his arm is hilarious. But what he’s saying isn’t remotely comical:</em>\r\n<em>“These people up here — you want to rein them in. But you can’t. Facebook owns 80% of mobile social traffic. Google owns 92% of search. And Amazon Web Services is bigger than their next four competitors combined. … They track our every move. They monitor every moment in our lives. And they exploit our data for profit. You can ask them all the questions you want, but they’re not going to change. They don’t have to. These companies are kings and they rule over kingdoms far larger than any nation in human history. They won. We lost.””</em>\r\nWhilst data privacy among others are legitimate concerns about tech, there is no doubt that tech has contributed immensely towards making the world a better place. But the show highlights a point about how even this noble intention has come a farce in the face of hyper competitive megalomaniacal tech entrepreneurs.\r\n<em>“Or, in perhaps the single greatest line in the entire series, the ruthless, platitude-happy Belson, warning of a coming “datageddon,” tells his executives that Hooli’s compression algorithm has to beat Pied Piper’s. After all, he explains, “I don’t want to live in a world where someone else makes the world a better place better than we do.”  </em>', 'Silicon Valley’ Exits With Serious Points About Big Tech', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2681-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '', 2681, 'https://marcellus.in/2681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2681, 1, '2020-01-05 04:38:59', '2020-01-05 04:38:59', '3L-3S has been prolific in featuring the growing dominance of big tech, fascinated by its ability to take mankind forward yet concerned about the perils associated with it including threats to competitive capitalism, data privacy, etc. It is only appropriate we feature a TV series titled Silicon Valley (featuring on Hotstar in India) that brings out all that is good, bad and ugly about tech in a ludicrous enough way that it has been much loved across the world. The Emmy award winning series which completed airing its sixth and final season last month brings a lot of authenticity to it with its creator Mike Judge having involved valley bigwigs including Bill Gates, Marc Andreesen, Eric Schmidt, etc for the script. Indeed, Gates makes an appearance in one of the episodes and has indeed <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55227bea50&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55227bea50%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578370689600000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHUyv3SQu08yWntdD6eTHIDRJRPPg\">blogged</a> saying “<em>If you want to understand Silicon Valley, watch Silicon Valley”. </em>The protagonist is the typical genius programmer but social awkward, clueless about managing teams or scaling up a business yet has his heart in the right place.\r\n<em>“Richard Hendricks, the chief executive officer of Pied Piper, the internet company he started five seasons earlier, is testifying before a Senate committee alongside executives from Facebook, Google, Amazon and, of course, Hooli, run by Hendricks’s archnemesis Gavin Belson. The hearing is about data privacy.</em>\r\n<em>When it’s Hendricks’s turn to speak, he gets up from his seat on the panel and starts pacing (“I just think better on my feet”), grabbing a bulky microphone box so the senators can hear him. Thomas Middleditch, who plays Hendricks, is a master of physical comedy, and the image of him walking back and forth with a big microphone box under his arm is hilarious. But what he’s saying isn’t remotely comical:</em>\r\n<em>“These people up here — you want to rein them in. But you can’t. Facebook owns 80% of mobile social traffic. Google owns 92% of search. And Amazon Web Services is bigger than their next four competitors combined. … They track our every move. They monitor every moment in our lives. And they exploit our data for profit. You can ask them all the questions you want, but they’re not going to change. They don’t have to. These companies are kings and they rule over kingdoms far larger than any nation in human history. They won. We lost.””</em>\r\nWhilst data privacy among others are legitimate concerns about tech, there is no doubt that tech has contributed immensely towards making the world a better place. But the show highlights a point about how even this noble intention has come a farce in the face of hyper competitive megalomaniacal tech entrepreneurs.\r\n<em>“Or, in perhaps the single greatest line in the entire series, the ruthless, platitude-happy Belson, warning of a coming “datageddon,” tells his executives that Hooli’s compression algorithm has to beat Pied Piper’s. After all, he explains, “I don’t want to live in a world where someone else makes the world a better place better than we do.”  </em>', 'Silicon Valley’ Exits With Serious Points About Big Tech', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'silicon-valley-exits-with-serious-points-about-big-tech', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '2020-01-06 04:40:44', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2681', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2087, 1, '2019-11-01 12:11:52', '2019-11-01 12:11:52', 'If over a billion people on the planet are going to be revelling in in festivities over the next three days, it is worth finding out the history behind this. And who better to help us understand the historical significance of Diwali, the festival of lights, than Manu Pillai, arguably the best Indian historian of today, especially when it comes to events of the past south of the Vindhyas. Pillai touches upon the nuanced differences in significance of the festival across different sects of the Hindu and Jain communities. But in general it refers to enlightenment or the elimination of darkness in various contexts such as the autumnal harvest signifying prosperity or the slaying of demons putting an end to evil. However, the best representation is captured in his concluding para: <em>“In essence, though, celebrating the power of light in throwing off even the most forbidding cloaks of darkness remains the principal physical and philosophical motif for Diwali. The 13th century Jnaneshwari, in fact, compares the shine of Diwali’s festive lamps to the light of knowledge—an attractive metaphor, perhaps, for our own time, which seems to be seized by the creeping darkness of wilful ignorance. Those bearing today’s lamps may have to endure much like Mahavir did in his own day—but it is a quest worth its exactions, for even a single flickering flame is capable of keeping shadows at bay.”</em>\r\n<em>“Through many an age, Diwali has endured as a festival of tremendous significance in India. Some see it as having evolved from an autumnal agrarian celebration: In the somewhat sniffy words of a colonial commentator, the festival marks the annual return of a time when “the granaries are full of corn, the tension of labour and anxiety about the harvest are…removed, the people are idle, and thus there is a natural tendency to outbreaks of eroticism and temporary relaxation of the laws of order\".</em>\r\n<em>To orthodox Jains, though, this was not originally about mere rejoicing—as a day that marks the attainment of moksha (salvation) by Mahavir, it was at first spent in silence, with fasts and other austerities as experienced by the 24th Tirthankar. Over time, though, more cheerful elements made their way into the Jain Diwali too. With many Jains being prosperous merchants and purveyors of trade, they too welcomed the goddess of wealth to their homes on this day, paving Lakshmi’s way with light and decorative opulence.</em>\r\n<em>….Whatever the chief tradition, though, lamps and illumination are key to Diwali—even the Jains who stayed silent and fasted brightened up the night, remembering that when Mahavir died, 18 kings came together and declared, “Since the light of intelligence is gone, let us make an illumination of material matter.\"”</em>', 'The many beginnings of Diwali', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2052-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:11:52', '2019-11-01 12:11:52', '', 2052, 'https://marcellus.in/2052-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2088, 1, '2019-11-01 12:12:48', '2019-11-01 12:12:48', 'It is almost a century since Niels Bohr won the Nobel Prize for his work in quantum physics. Whilst applications from his work have emerged across diverse fields and solved real world problems, quantum computing has been a mega promise yet to see real world applications. From that perspective, Google’s announcement this week that their 53-bit quantum computer Sycamore took 200 seconds to perform a calculation that otherwise would have taken the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years, sounds like a step-progress of sorts. Gideon Lichfield grills Google CEO Sundar Pichai on what exactly this means for mankind whilst Pichai guardedly alludes to the bigger picture of progress for the sake of progress. Afterall, Niels Bohr famously said of the inherent paradoxical or ambivalent nature of quantum physics and what it means for progress: “How wonderful that we have met with a paradox. Now we have some hope of making progress.”\r\n<em>“….To borrow an analogy—the Wright brothers. The first plane flew only for 12 seconds, and so there is no practical application of that. But it showed the possibility that a plane could fly.</em>\r\n<em>“We’re only one creative algorithm away from valuable near-term applications.”</em>\r\n<em>The real excitement about quantum is that the universe fundamentally works in a quantum way, so you will be able to understand nature better. It’s early days, but where quantum mechanics shines is the ability to simulate molecules, molecular processes, and I think that is where it will be the strongest. Drug discovery is a great example. Or fertilizers—the Haber process produces 2% of carbon [emissions] in the world [see Note 1]. In nature the same process gets done more efficiently.</em>\r\n<em>…Caffeine has 2^43 states or something like that.... We know we can’t even understand the basic structure of molecules today with classical computing. So when I look at climate change, when I look at medicines, this is why I am confident one day quantum computing will drive progress there.”</em>', 'Google CEO Sundar Pichai on achieving quantum supremacy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2050-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:12:48', '2019-11-01 12:12:48', '', 2050, 'https://marcellus.in/2050-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2089, 1, '2019-11-01 12:13:28', '2019-11-01 12:13:28', 'Spotify has been Godsend for music lovers across the world, especially given its ability to machine learn your music taste and push stuff that you didn’t know existed but you would absolutely love. But little is known about how Daniel Ek, its founder, was inspired by an equally loved online music service called Napster. If you were in your late teens or early twenties at the turn of the millennium, it is highly likely that you would have been bitten by the Napster bug which suddenly opened up the whole world of music at the click of a mouse button. Here’s the backstory to Spotify’s rise from Napster’s ashes from Quartz’s Daniel Kopf who very honestly admits to striking a deal with his father to “buying the album if he downloaded more than three songs from the same album on Napster” and eventually failing to honour the deal. Whilst Napster triggered the fall in music industry revenues from $21bn in 1999 to $7bn in 2014, Spotify may have given a ray of hope with revenues now recovering to $10bn in 2018.\r\n<em>“Napster was a company with a popular software in search of a revenue model, one it would never get the chance to find.</em>\r\n<em>Napster was eventually shut down in 2001 due to lawsuit by the Recording Industry Association of America, the trade group for the US music industry. A US court found Napster was facilitating the illegal transfer of copyrighted music, and was told that unless it was able to stop that activity on its site, it would have to shutdown. Napster couldn’t comply. </em>\r\n<em>From the abyss, Spotify appeared. Daniel Ek, the co-founder and CEO of Spotify, has said that Spotify, launched in 2008, is a direct byproduct of his love for Napster, and his desire to create a similar experience for users.</em>\r\n<em>Daniel Ek, the founder of Spotify says “he thought he could create a “better product than piracy” by making streaming so fast that you wouldn’t even notice the loading time. He would avoid the trap that Napster fell into by getting music labels to agree to have their songs on his platform. To fund operations and licensing costs, he would sell advertising between songs (subscriptions were not originally part of the model), making music “free” like on Napster, but his program would be even easier to use and less likely to give you a computer virus. He thought his company would help save a declining music industry, and help people “discover better music.”</em>\r\n<em>The authors of the 2019 book Spotify Teardown, an academic examination of rise of Spotify, say something very different happened. The book, written by a group of Swedish media studies professors, historians, and programmers, contends that Spotify was simply an opportunistic application of a technology that Ek developed, rather than effort to save the music industry.</em>\r\n<em>Though it may not have been Ek’s intention to “save” the music industry, his company might have done so by showing the viability of streaming. Because some of the revenue from streaming companies is sent on to labels, the music industry has finally started making money again. From a nadir of about $7 billion in revenue in 2014 (in 2018 dollars), US revenue rose to almost $10 billion in 2018. That is still less than half of the money the industry was making in 1999, but it’s progress nonetheless.”</em>', 'Napster paved the way for streaming-reliant music industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2048-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:13:28', '2019-11-01 12:13:28', '', 2048, 'https://marcellus.in/2048-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2090, 1, '2019-11-01 12:14:04', '2019-11-01 12:14:04', 'Women are not only smashing the glass ceiling in the corporate world but also apparently in the world of statues. Women have always been given a raw deal in a male dominated society and capturing the important role they have played in the past through the means of statues also shows our society’s apathy towards women.\r\n<em>“Across the US, there are fewer than 400 public statues of women. San Francisco has three statues of historical women and 85 of men. In Washington, D.C. some of the statues depicting women represent the metaphorical ideals of our democracy. In New York City, only five of 150 statues are real women. The problem extends to other countries, too. In the UK, out of 828 recorded statues, 94 are nameless representations of females and 80 are named women, according to the BBC. But approximately 15 of those named women aren’t real women, and a whole 38 of them are royal figures—mainly various versions of Queen Victoria I. In Australia there are more statues of animals than of women; just under 4% of all of the country’s statues represent historical female figures, according to columnist Tracey Spicer.” This lack of representation has real effects. Because women—actual, real women—couldn’t be venerated in the form of sculpture, people subconsciously understood that women weren’t worthy of being emulated and idolized.</em>\r\nHowever, things are changing as many organizations and NGO’s have started campaigning for placing real women statues in public places.\r\n<em>“In 2018, Salt Lake City-based statue manufacturer Statues.com started a campaign called “Where Are The Women?” in an effort to produce 20 seven-inch busts of heroic American women to launch in 2020. The daughter of Illinois poet laureate Gwendolyn Brooks and the great-granddaughter of investigative journalist Ida B. Wells have separately pushed to get statues of their inspirational family members in public sites in Chicago. Brooks’ statue was unveiled last year in Brooks Park, while Wells’ statue will likely be installed by the end of 2019.”</em>\r\n<em>“All these initiatives come with educational programs intended to teach the public about monumental women in history. “The monuments are important, I’m a believer in the monuments,” says Gale Brewer, Manhattan’s Borough President. “[But] I’m more of a believer in the history and the ongoing discussion in our community. If we do these monuments they have to be accompanied with extremely intensive information, on apps, online, in the schools. And I know they will.”</em>', 'The US has fewer than 400 statues of women—but that’s changing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2046-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:14:04', '2019-11-01 12:14:04', '', 2046, 'https://marcellus.in/2046-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2091, 1, '2019-11-01 12:14:40', '2019-11-01 12:14:40', 'Many of us who endure long commutes and work in businesses where frequent air travel is a must know a thing or two about sleep deprivation. But very few of us understand the full effects of sleep deprivation on our bodies &amp; minds. The ESPN article on players in the American NBA therefore becomes required reading for us.\r\n<em>“Fatigue has long been a reality of life in the NBA, a league with teams that play 82 games in under six months and fly up to 50,000 miles per season -- roughly 20,000 more miles each season than NFL teams and far enough to circle the globe twice. Over the 2018-19 season, the average NBA team played every 2.07 days, had 13.3 back-to-back sets and flew the equivalent of 250 miles a day for 25 straight weeks.”</em>\r\nThis sort of playing schedule imposes severe loads on players’ bodies. Take for example a player called Tobias Harris. <em>“This is how Tobias Harris rolls: On off-days, he\'ll make sure he\'s done with everything by 6 p.m. so he can be in bed by 8:30 to achieve his nightly goal of nine hours of sleep. On game nights, he kick-starts his recovery as soon as the buzzer sounds. At his locker, he\'ll strap a breathing belt around his waist and slip a heart-rate monitor on his index finger. He knows the game has caused his body to release cortisol, a hormone that wakes him up, while suppressing melatonin, the hormone the body naturally produces to regulate sleep. He\'s out of balance. So for a few minutes, still wearing his jersey, adrenaline still flowing through his veins, he\'ll take several deep breaths, trying to slow his heart rate and breathing until they\'re aligned, monitoring his progress on an iPad.</em>\r\n<em>He calls this his quiet time. The goal? Re-balance just enough so that once he settles into bed, he can quickly enter a deep, restorative sleep.</em>\r\n<em>There\'s more. Harris travels with an electroencephalogram machine, examining his brain waves almost daily, engaging in daily 45-minute training sessions. He clips sensors onto each ear, another onto his temple, the three wires leading back into the EEG, then cues up a film or TV show; as the show plays, the EEG reads his brain waves. If they venture outside an optimal range for focus and concentration, the show doesn\'t play.</em>\r\n<em>What Harris is doing is called neurofeedback. And although its efficacy has been debated by medical experts, Harris swears by it -- believes it arms him with knowledge in his ongoing battle against fatigue.</em>\r\n<em>This has been Harris\' routine for the past five seasons. But he\'s far from the only NBA player to feel the need to manage the impact of travel and sleep loss.”</em>\r\nSo what are the negative impacts of lack of sleep? As per the legend that is LeBron James, <em>“There\'s nothing more important than optimal REM sleep.”</em>\r\nPortland Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum says: <em>\"Lack of sleep messes up your recovery, messes up how you play, your cognitive function, your mindset, how you\'re moving on the court,\" McCollum says. \"Sleep is everything.\"</em>\r\nTimothy Royer, a performance athlete specialist, believes <em>“Sleep deprivation…is more than just a hindrance to NBA players on the court. It likely is injuring them -- and shortening their lives.” </em>In fact, Royer has found tangible evidence of how this plays out: <em>“By January, just three months into the 2012-13 NBA season, the testosterone of one player in his 20s had dropped to that of a 50-year-old man. (Those reductions in testosterone, it\'s worth noting, are not permanent, but they do require multiple days of recovery to offset.) And as testosterone levels fell for more players, the injuries seemed to correspondingly accumulate.”</em>\r\n<em>“Chronic sleep loss has been associated with higher risk for cancer, diabetes, obesity, heart disease, heart attacks, Alzheimer\'s, dementia, depression, stroke, psychosis and suicide. As Phyllis Zee, chief of sleep medicine in the department of neurology at Northwestern University\'s Feinberg School of Medicine, says, \"Sleep deprivation ... doesn\'t only affect the brain -- it affects all your other organs. ... Think about it as punching your other organs.”</em>', 'NBA exec: \'It\'s the dirty little secret that everybody knows about\'', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2044-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:14:40', '2019-11-01 12:14:40', '', 2044, 'https://marcellus.in/2044-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2092, 1, '2019-11-01 12:15:04', '2019-11-01 12:15:04', 'Uber and Airbnb were both founded around a decade ago and most of us think of them as being synonymous of the gig economy where millions of vendors sell their wares via asset-light platforms who act as a shopfront. However, “As Airbnb prepares to go public next year, its boss, Brian Chesky, has been making the case for his company, both to the press and behind closed doors. He is keen to get across that, sharing-economy heritage notwithstanding, Airbnb is no Uber.”\r\nSo, what are the differences between the two platforms? <em>“But here the similarities end, starting with money. Whereas Uber has yet to turn a profit (and, sceptics say, never will), Airbnb says it is already profitable (to be precise, ebitda-positive) and has been since 2017, when it is thought to have earned $93m on revenues of $2.6bn. That is not the only distinction. </em>\r\n<em>For ride-hailing firms like Uber and Lyft, supply and demand must be matched in the same city; a driver in Manhattan is no use to a rider in Mumbai. Airbnb’s listings, by contrast, are global. Any property anywhere can potentially appeal to any user; a Mumbaiker may want to stay in New York. A telltale sign of Airbnb’s superior “network effects” is that whereas drivers for Uber often drive for Lyft, and vice versa, doing their utmost to play the platforms off against each other, most of Airbnb’s listings do not appear on any other platform.”</em>\r\nThirdly, Airbnb has been cleverer than Uber in the way it has dealt with regulators around the world. <em>“Airbnb decided earlier than Uber to work with regulators rather than fighting them. It has struck deals in more than 500 big cities around the world. It says it has collected more than $1bn in hotel and tourism taxes in America alone and is “on track to become the world’s largest single collector of these taxes”.</em>', 'Airbnb and Uber are chalk and cheese', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2042-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:15:04', '2019-11-01 12:15:04', '', 2042, 'https://marcellus.in/2042-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2093, 1, '2019-11-01 12:15:46', '2019-11-01 12:15:46', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2017-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:15:46', '2019-11-01 12:15:46', '', 2017, 'https://marcellus.in/2017-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2094, 1, '2019-11-01 12:16:20', '2019-11-01 12:16:20', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\r\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\r\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\r\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\r\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\r\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:16:20', '2019-11-01 12:16:20', '', 2017, 'https://marcellus.in/2017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2095, 1, '2019-11-01 12:18:18', '2019-11-01 12:18:18', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:18:18', '2019-11-01 12:18:18', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2096, 1, '2019-11-01 12:20:07', '2019-11-01 12:20:07', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:20:07', '2019-11-01 12:20:07', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2097, 1, '2019-11-01 12:24:59', '2019-11-01 12:24:59', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:24:59', '2019-11-01 12:24:59', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2098, 1, '2019-11-01 12:25:35', '2019-11-01 12:25:35', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:25:35', '2019-11-01 12:25:35', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2099, 1, '2019-11-01 12:28:21', '2019-11-01 12:28:21', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\r\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\r\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\r\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\r\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\r\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:28:21', '2019-11-01 12:28:21', '', 2017, 'https://marcellus.in/2017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2100, 1, '2019-11-01 12:28:43', '2019-11-01 12:28:43', 'This is a super piece on how cold calculations – rather than national or ethnic identity – drive FDI. As China’s trade war with America rumbles on, Taiwanese entrepreneurs who set up factories in China 30 years ago are reconsidering their commitment to China. “Today, four Taiwan-based companies—Foxconn Technology Group, Inventec, Quanta Computer, and Compal—together account for some 40% of exports from China to the U.S. of computers, phones, and related items. But faced with growing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, the leaders of those companies are reconsidering their commitment to China. Although any pivot away from the country is just starting, factories that leave won’t come back anytime soon.”\r\nThe four entrepreneurs with giant companies who will determine the flow tech FDI in Asia are:\r\nTerry Gou, the Founder of Foxconn. “Key products: Apple iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Google Pixel. Signs of change: Expanded Indian manufacturing of older-model iPhones; building a plant in Wisconsin…Foxconn is the world’s biggest electronics contract manufacturer, with facilities in more than 30 Chinese cities and in 14 other countries.”\r\nYeh Kuo-I, the Founder of Inventec. “Key products: HP laptops, Apple AirPods, Google servers. Signs of change: Plans to move production of laptops for the U.S. market to Taiwan by December. Yeh is a key backer of Taiwanese tech companies…Yeh had offered to convert an orchid-growing facility in Vietnam into an Inventec factory to skirt U.S. tariffs…Inventec has shifted some production of small appliances to Malaysia and has said it will move manufacturing of U.S.-bound laptops to Taiwan.”\r\nBarry Lam, the Founder of Quanta Computer. “Key products: Apple MacBook, Apple Watch, Amazon and Google servers. Signs of change: Expanding capacity in Taiwan and looking at locations elsewhere in Asia….e’s bought a factory adjacent to a Quanta facility in the northern Taiwanese city of Taoyuan, where he’ll make what he calls “premium products”—likely servers and high-end laptops. He’s also scouting locations in Southeast Asia and expanding a 7-year-old data center business in the U.S. On Friday, Lam\'s company announced it would be setting up a Thai subsidiary -- its very first in Southeast Asia.”\r\nRay Chen, Chairman of Compal Electronics. “Key products: HP and Dell laptops. Signs of change: Adding notebook-manufacturing capacity in Taiwan and considering further investments in Vietnam…Today, Compal is looking back home, with a new factory in Taoyuan and expansion of a plant nearby. After Trump introduced his tariffs, Compal began making networking gear in Vietnam, and the company says it may add other products to its facilities there.”', 'The Tycoons Behind China’s Gadget Factories Boom Prepare to Pivot', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:28:43', '2019-11-01 12:28:43', '', 2017, 'https://marcellus.in/2017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2101, 1, '2019-11-01 12:30:41', '2019-11-01 12:30:41', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:30:41', '2019-11-01 12:30:41', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2102, 1, '2019-11-01 12:33:13', '2019-11-01 12:33:13', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:33:13', '2019-11-01 12:33:13', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2103, 1, '2019-11-01 12:34:03', '2019-11-01 12:34:03', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:34:03', '2019-11-01 12:34:03', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2104, 1, '2019-11-01 12:34:51', '2019-11-01 12:34:51', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:34:51', '2019-11-01 12:34:51', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2105, 1, '2019-11-01 12:35:48', '2019-11-01 12:35:48', 'Continuing with heartwarming inspirations from the world of business, Marc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and co-CEO of Salesforce has to be right up there. Ahead of the release of his latest book Trailblazer: The Power of Business as the Greatest Platform for Change, Marc’s interview with the Fortune magazine gives a peek into the mind of someone who walks the talk when it comes to building a business with purpose and using business as a platform for change. For example, whilst most people talk about gender based pay discrimination, Salesforce actually undertook three successive pay adjustments to eliminate any gap costing the company millions of dollars. Similarly, when it comes to ensuring ethical use of its product, Salesforce is happy to walk away from deals where it believes the use of its technology is unethical even if the customer is the state (Salesforce backed off when it learnt that its software was being used in the government’s border operations, which had resulted in the separation of migrant children from their families). Such acts of standing up for your beliefs even when it costs you is what inspires us at Marcellus (read here about why the name Marcellus). Not just us, more than 9000 companies have been inspired and have implemented Marc’s famous 1-1-1 model (giving 1% of a company’s product, 1% of equity, and 1% of employee time to philanthropic causes). Salesforce has shown that all this doesn’t have to come at the cost of shareholder value creation either. Since IPO in 2004, Salesforce shares are up a staggering 5300%, a compounding of 30% annually and now a $131bn market cap company.\r\n“The new capitalism is one where we value all of our stakeholders: our customers and our employees, our public schools, our planet, as well as our shareholders. And going forward, this stakeholder return is as important as the shareholder return. That’s why we’ve given $300 million in grants towards worthy causes, our employees have volunteered 4 million hours to the community, and 40,000 nonprofits and NGOs use a billion dollars of our software for free each year.\r\n(About equality in pay)…Because this is a subconscious bias, you have to monitor and measure it on a regular basis. So this is just happening automatically when people are getting hired. But number two is, we didn’t realize that when we acquired companies, we weren’t just buying their innovation, we were also buying their pay scales. And that can really, really impact you as a CEO—if you buy a company and you’ve done all this good work, and now you discover that they had the wrong pay scale.\r\n…What business books talk about that? Even go back and look at every article ever written in Fortune magazine. You’re not going to find an article that says, “When you acquire a company, make sure you not only look at technology, but that you also look at the culture, and the ethics, and the leadership—Oh, and look at the pay scales as well.” That’s not part of how [most companies] do things.\r\nBut now, we have to look at it constantly and transactionally. So when my head of corporate development comes in and says, “Hey, we’re going to buy this company,” I will say, “Okay, how much are the workers paid? Show me the pay scales. Are men and women paid differently?”\r\n….When I went to business school, which was from 1982 to 1986 at USC, I didn’t take any classes on equality. Or on sustainability. Or on stakeholderism. I took none of those classes. The classes I took were on accounting, marketing, organizational behavior, leadership. That’s what business was. Well, that’s not what leadership and business is today.\r\n…a year ago my company put in place an Office of Ethical and Humane Use, led by a team of people who do nothing but ask what you just asked—which is look at how our products are being used. Because that has to be the cornerstone of how we operate. That’s also why we recently banned assault weapons (and products like bump stocks) being sold on our commerce cloud—because they determined that it was not ethical. That’s our new world.\"   ', 'Salesforce Founder Marc Benioff: What Business School Never Taught Me', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2015-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:35:48', '2019-11-01 12:35:48', '', 2015, 'https://marcellus.in/2015-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2106, 1, '2019-11-01 12:36:44', '2019-11-01 12:36:44', 'The Economist – normally a champion of full on free market capitalism – has a heart warming story regarding a British retailer which has succeeded by treating its staff well. Julian Richer has built a successful high-street chain of 52 stores, named Richer Sounds. “…the 60-year-old Mr Richer is an atypical entrepreneur. That became clear in May when he announced he was selling a majority stake in the company to a trust owned by the staff, and remitting around 40% of the proceeds in the form of a cash bonus to colleagues. For every year of service, they received £1,000 ($1,230). His gesture reflected the management philosophy he has developed over his 40-year business career.”\r\nMr Richer claims to have been inspired by that legendary management tome from the 1980s, “In Search of Excellence” by Tom Peters and Robert Waterman. “The top-performing companies described in the book had two common features, Mr Richer noticed: they treated both customers and their employees well.\r\nIn “The Ethical Capitalist”, one of his two books on management, Mr Richer writes that “organisations that create a culture based on fairness, honesty and respect reap the rewards.” They attract motivated staff “who are there for the long haul”. High staff turnover, he says, is a sign that something is fundamentally wrong. And he cites his firm’s turnover rate of 11% a year, compared with an industry average of 25%, as a sign of success. Richer Sounds also tries to promote from within. Each of the other nine board members has risen through the ranks.”\r\nThat’s not all. Mr Richer does a range of other things to look after his people: “How does he keep staff loyal? One way is to survey morale every week. Employees rate it, anonymously, on a ten-point scale. Store managers report the average and the lowest score. If there is a two, the company will investigate.\r\nAnother tactic is to ensure staff have the time to learn about the latest equipment in stock. The shops open at noon so that there is time for staff training without dragging people out of bed unreasonably early… if an employee has to take a telephone call on their day off, they get a £20 hassle bonus.\r\n…Workers can stay at one of the group’s holiday homes; over 70% make use of this perk once a year. The only charge they face is £10 per night per adult, and £5 per child. The British authorities treats such holidays as a taxable benefit but the company covers this cost as well.\r\nMr Richer…does not like high-pressure sales tactics, preferring repeat buyers; bonuses are based on surveys of shoppers’ satisfaction as well as sales. On top of the bonus, workers get a monthly profit share, based on each store’s performance, and an annual share of the group profit.”\r\n ', 'From rags to richer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2013-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:36:44', '2019-11-01 12:36:44', '', 2013, 'https://marcellus.in/2013-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2107, 1, '2019-11-01 12:37:26', '2019-11-01 12:37:26', 'The Economist – normally a champion of full on free market capitalism – has a heart warming story regarding a British retailer which has succeeded by treating its staff well. Julian Richer has built a successful high-street chain of 52 stores, named Richer Sounds. “…the 60-year-old Mr Richer is an atypical entrepreneur. That became clear in May when he announced he was selling a majority stake in the company to a trust owned by the staff, and remitting around 40% of the proceeds in the form of a cash bonus to colleagues. For every year of service, they received £1,000 ($1,230). His gesture reflected the management philosophy he has developed over his 40-year business career.”\r\nMr Richer claims to have been inspired by that legendary management tome from the 1980s, “In Search of Excellence” by Tom Peters and Robert Waterman. “The top-performing companies described in the book had two common features, Mr Richer noticed: they treated both customers and their employees well.\r\nIn “The Ethical Capitalist”, one of his two books on management, Mr Richer writes that “organisations that create a culture based on fairness, honesty and respect reap the rewards.” They attract motivated staff “who are there for the long haul”. High staff turnover, he says, is a sign that something is fundamentally wrong. And he cites his firm’s turnover rate of 11% a year, compared with an industry average of 25%, as a sign of success. Richer Sounds also tries to promote from within. Each of the other nine board members has risen through the ranks.”\r\nThat’s not all. Mr Richer does a range of other things to look after his people: “How does he keep staff loyal? One way is to survey morale every week. Employees rate it, anonymously, on a ten-point scale. Store managers report the average and the lowest score. If there is a two, the company will investigate.\r\nAnother tactic is to ensure staff have the time to learn about the latest equipment in stock. The shops open at noon so that there is time for staff training without dragging people out of bed unreasonably early… if an employee has to take a telephone call on their day off, they get a £20 hassle bonus.\r\n…Workers can stay at one of the group’s holiday homes; over 70% make use of this perk once a year. The only charge they face is £10 per night per adult, and £5 per child. The British authorities treats such holidays as a taxable benefit but the company covers this cost as well.\r\nMr Richer…does not like high-pressure sales tactics, preferring repeat buyers; bonuses are based on surveys of shoppers’ satisfaction as well as sales. On top of the bonus, workers get a monthly profit share, based on each store’s performance, and an annual share of the group profit.”\r\n ', 'From rags to richer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2013-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:37:26', '2019-11-01 12:37:26', '', 2013, 'https://marcellus.in/2013-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2109, 1, '2019-11-01 12:42:38', '2019-11-01 12:42:38', 'One would assume that an article on urban development in Bangalore would talk about the ridiculous traffic congestion in the city. But Aditi and Anish, students of urban development will hopefully tackle that on a different day. In this article, they trace the city’s emergence as a IT hub to economic policies set in as far back as 1911 by Sir M Visweswaraiah the then Diwan (Prime Minister) of the Princely state of Mysore. Sir MV in a landmark Mysore Economic Conference in 1911 laid out the industrialisation plan for the kingdom. The infrastructure build out then eventually upon gaining independence made Bangalore the preferred destination for the Govt of India’s strategic industries (such as HAL, ITI, BEL, etc) alongside research and educational institutes (IISc, DRDO, ISRO). The largely knowledge worker population that settled in the city on the back of these organisations made Bangalore the choice of destination for the tech industry post liberalisation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'How Bangalore’s IT sector flowered from a princely state Diwan’s industrial dream in 1911', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1945-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:42:38', '2019-11-01 12:42:38', '', 1945, 'https://marcellus.in/1945-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2110, 1, '2019-11-01 12:43:53', '2019-11-01 12:43:53', 'WeWork’s failed IPO has led to several notable commentators in America highlighting the folly of private markets and pointing to the broader house of cards constructed by venture capitalists in Silicon Valley. The most famous of these pieces has come from veteran commentator, Jason Zweig (see <a href=\"https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/\" rel=\"nofollow\">https://jasonzweig.com/how-we-should-bust-an-investing-myth/</a>> ). The responses to Zweig’s piece are actually very interesting and vary from people saying that nobody apart from Softbank is crazy enough to buy the overvalued assets in which Softbank has invested in to people saying that Zweig is making too much of a single data point (i.e. WeWork). This piece from Seeking Alpha takes Zweig’s piece and makes an equally valid point about public markets.\r\nThe point is this: more money in the US stockmarket is managed by passive funds than active funds. The author, Jesse Felder, says that in the month ending August 2019, for the first time funds that track broad US indices hit US$4.3 trillion (that’s almost twice India’s GDP!). Given this glut of money flooding into index trackers, Felder says that we need to view the valuation of listed equities with a degree of scepticism: <em>“With the shift in perception towards these private market behemoths, epitomized by the WeCompany fiasco, it\'s inevitable we will see a very similar shift in the public market. Investors will soon come to realize once again that equities, private or public, are not the easy path to riches they have seemed to be over the past decade; they are worth nothing more than the discounted value of their future cash flows (and not discounted at today\'s \"risk-free\" rates but at a more historically appropriate rate). And that true value is far lower than current prices.”</em>', 'The True Cost Of Ignoring True Cost', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1940-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:43:53', '2019-11-01 12:43:53', '', 1940, 'https://marcellus.in/1940-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2111, 1, '2019-11-01 12:45:12', '2019-11-01 12:45:12', 'As we approach the next US presidential elections, the chorus against big corporate will only get louder. Hence, it is only logical that the largest corporate – Amazon becomes front and centre of this outrage. Plenty has been written about Amazon’s ‘Day One’ and ‘Flywheel’ approach to business which has made it a relentless growth machine (apparently Bezos did consider naming the company Relentless in 1995) and the public outcry against Amazon’s lack of empathy with employees and a bullying attitude towards the state. But in this New Yorker piece, Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer winning journalist and the author of the delightful <a href=\"https://www.amazon.in/Power-Habit-Why-What-Change/dp/1847946240\" rel=\"nofollow\">The Power of Habit</a>, gives a thoroughly researched and well balanced take on these two polarised views on the company. In true Duhigg style, the piece has plenty of anecdotes and details that can help build a clearer perspective.\r\n<em>“Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia, said, “Amazon is a microeconomist’s wet dream. If you’re a consumer, it’s perfect for maximizing the efficiency of finding what you want and getting it as cheap and fast as possible. But, the thing is, most of us aren’t just consumers. We’re also producers, or manufacturers, or employees, or we live in cities where retailers have gone out of business because they can’t compete with Amazon, and so Amazon kind of pits us against ourselves.”</em>\r\n<em>…More than a hundred thousand people work at Amazon’s fulfillment centers, and nearly everything they do is digitally tracked and evaluated, meaning that if someone falls behind—even for just a few minutes—it can be grounds for reprimand. Many employees carry handheld scanners that deliver a constant stream of instructions, such as a countdown clock detailing how many seconds remain until the next item must be plucked from a shelf. Workers can walk more than fifteen miles a day, and their breaks, including trips to the bathroom, are brief and closely measured. A company document explains, “Amazon’s system tracks the rates of each individual associate’s productivity and automatically generates any warnings or terminations regarding quality of productivity without input from supervisors.” A former warehouse employee told me that she knew of people who got fired largely “because they were too old, or their knees started acting up, or they just had a bad week.” She added, “Managers are always vague about what will get you fired, which creates this paranoia.” Employees, she said, sometimes ask questions about “what exactly will get them fired, and the responses are so vague that you basically know that if you’re not constantly moving, you’re probably gone.” Employees line up at vending machines that dispense free over-the-counter painkillers. For years, some Amazon warehouses lacked sufficient air-conditioning; this changed only after reports emerged, in 2011, of workers passing out and requiring emergency medical treatment for heat-related problems.</em>\r\n<em>…Many Amazon executives have become defensive about the fact that even centrist politicians like Joe Biden see the company as a symbol of capitalism gone awry. (On Twitter, Biden recently said of Amazon, “No company pulling in billions of dollars of profits should pay a lower tax rate than firefighters and teachers.”) Jeff Wilke, one of Bezos’s top lieutenants, told me that Amazon “tries to be a good corporate citizen,” and added, “We’ve built a for-profit enterprise that is improving the lives of customers and taking great care of employees. There’s a lot to be proud of.” The company, he said, has committed to spending seven hundred million dollars to train its workers in such subjects as coding and robotics.</em>\r\n<em>…One senior Amazon executive said of its warehouses, “It’s a hard economy for people without college degrees right now. We can’t run a philanthropy, but we’re trying to be the best of those bad kinds of jobs.” Another top executive suggested that Amazon was merely a cog in the American economic machine—and inevitably reflected how contemporary inequality had created winners and losers. “We’re doing what we can,” he said. “But ultimately this is a problem only the government can really solve—by changing how the economy works.”</em>\r\n<em>….Amazon has always been unabashed about being a cutthroat competitor. When the company started, in 1995, with fewer than a dozen employees, Bezos considered naming it Relentless. (The company still owns the URL for <a href=\"http://relentless.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://relentless.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1571116487456000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjrAUYRaQgpFhUmkjh_W937T3GEw\">relentless.com</a>—it redirects you to Amazon.com.) Amazonians know that outsiders want them to change, but listening to outsiders is not one of the Leadership Principles. One executive told me, with barely suppressed resentment, “What has made us great for so long is suddenly being seen as something we ought to be ashamed of!”</em>\r\n<em>…Amazon is a process company. Last year, it collected a hundred and twenty-two billion dollars from online retail sales, and another forty-two billion by helping other firms sell and ship their own goods. The company collected twenty-six billion dollars from its Web-services division, which has little to do with selling things to consumers, and fourteen billion more from people who sign up for such subscription services as Amazon Prime or Kindle Unlimited. Amazon is estimated to have taken in hundreds of millions of dollars from selling the Echo. Seventeen billion came from sales at such brick-and-mortar stores as Whole Foods. And then there’s ten billion from ad sales and other activities too numerous to list in financial filings. No other tech company does as many unrelated things, on such a scale, as Amazon.</em>\r\n<em>…with the rise of Amazon, the give-and-take that has long undergirded the retail economy has become lopsided in a titan’s favor. “Capitalism is supposed to be a system of checks and balances,” he said. “It’s a marketplace where everyone haggles until we’re all basically satisfied, and it works because you can always threaten to walk away if you don’t get a fair deal. But when there’s only one marketplace, and it’s impossible to walk away, everything is out of balance. Amazon owns the marketplace. They can do whatever they want. That’s not capitalism. That’s piracy.”</em>', 'Is Amazon Unstoppable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1938-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:45:12', '2019-11-01 12:45:12', '', 1938, 'https://marcellus.in/1938-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2112, 1, '2019-11-01 12:46:29', '2019-11-01 12:46:29', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, here’a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:46:29', '2019-11-01 12:46:29', '', 1936, 'https://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2113, 1, '2019-11-01 12:47:13', '2019-11-01 12:47:13', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, here’a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:47:13', '2019-11-01 12:47:13', '', 1936, 'https://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2114, 1, '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The appropriately titled <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/King-Capital-Remarkable-Schwarzman-Blackstone/dp/0307886026\" rel=\"nofollow\">King Capital</a> was a story about Blackstone and how Stephen Schwarzman built a world class investment management organisation. Now, you can hear it straight from the horse’s mouth in Schwarzman’s new book <a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/What-Takes-Lessons-Pursuit-Excellence/dp/1501158147\" rel=\"nofollow\">What It Takes: Lessons in the\r\nPursuit of Excellence</a>. Here’s a two-part excerpt of the book from The Institutional Investor. If you would rather not get bored with a painful yet thoroughly enjoyable journey of raising a fund or building a business in general, here’a compilation of Schwarzman’s words of wisdom that all of us can use irrespective of what field we are in. A lot of it resonates with what we aspire to build at Marcellus:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><em>Believe in something greater than yourself and your personal needs. It can be your company, your country, or a duty for service. Any challenge you tackle that is inspired by your beliefs and core values will be worth it, regardless of whether you succeed or fail.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never deviate from your sense of right and wrong. Your integrity must be unquestionable. It is easy to do what’s right when you don’t have to write a check or suffer any consequences. It’s harder when you have to give something up. Always do what you say you will, and never mislead anyone for your own advantage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Never get complacent. Nothing is forever. Whether it is an individual or a business, your competition will defeat you if you are not constantly seeking ways to reinvent and improve yourself. Organizations, especially, are more fragile than you think.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Sales rarely get made on the first pitch. Just because you believe in something doesn’t mean everyone else will. You need to be able to sell your vision with conviction over and over again. Most people don’t like change, so you need to be able to convince them why they should accept it. Don\'t be afraid to ask for what you want.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Don’t lose money!!! Objectively assess the risks of every opportunity. Worrying is an active, liberating activity. If channelled appropriately, it allows you to articulate the downside in any situation and drives you to take action to avoid it.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>It’s as easy to do something big as it is to do something small, so reach for a fantasy worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The best executives are made, not born. They never stop learning. Study the people and organizations in your life that have had enormous success. They offer a free course from the real world to help you improve.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge. Information is the most important asset in business. The more you know, the more perspectives you have, and the more likely you are to spot patterns and anomalies before your competition. So always be open to new inputs, whether they are people, experiences, or knowledge.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Recalling this on my sixtieth birthday, Pete said that one of my unique qualities is that my “goals are so demanding and dynamic that sometimes it is even hard for me to accept yes for an answer.” </em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Stephen Schwarzman Hung Out a Shingle.Then He Waited.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1936-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '2019-11-01 12:47:47', '', 1936, 'https://marcellus.in/1936-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2121, 1, '2019-11-04 06:46:36', '2019-11-04 06:46:36', 'An argument in favour of automation using Artificial Intelligence replacing humans with machines for jobs that are menial is that humans will go on to devoting more time to solving the harder and more challenging problems the world is facing. However, cognitive psychology suggests that in some fields, taking away the menial jobs from humans is doing more harm than good in terms of the morale of the workers involved. The argument being most humans need easy and quick wins to keep themselves motivated to solve the harder bits. By taking away the menial chores which delivered those easy wins for workers, AI is actually creating work related stress for workers who now spend most of their time finding solutions to problems the machine couldn’t solve.\r\n“Decision making is very cognitively draining,” the author and former clinical psychologist Alice Boyes told me via email, “so it’s nice to have some tasks that provide a sense of accomplishment but just require getting it done and repeating what you know, rather than everything needing very taxing novel decision making.”\r\nThat people “need both experiences of mastery and pleasure for healthy mood,” Boyes said, is a core idea of cognitive-behavioral psychology. It’s important, she said, “to vary the difficulty of the mastery experiences, rather than having everything be super challenging.”\r\nAt Kickstarter, our robot picked off the projects that were clearly the easiest to analyze. Left for human reviewers were projects with muddier scores—particularly ones for ideas that tested the limits of our guidelines, such as projects for helmets (Kickstarter prohibits medical devices) or overly optimistic gadgets (Kickstarter also banned hyperrealistic 3-D renderings of technology that didn’t exist yet). Staffers who had been used to reviewing slam-dunk proposals were no longer seeing them. Their jobs weren’t quite as enjoyable as they had been.\r\nThis problem is cropping up at other companies, too. For example, the tech journalist Kara Swisher reported last year that YouTube content-moderation staff, once used to reviewing clips featuring cute animals, are now frustrated by the difficult ethics decisions that dominate their work. She wrote that “their jobs used to be about wrangling cat videos and now they had degenerated into a daily hell of ethics debates about the fate of humanity.”\r\nThe best-designed machine-learning systems are the ones that can pass on the unclear or low-confidence decisions and redirect them to humans. But when humans are looking only at the difficult, muddiest, most intractable cases, not only will morale suffer, but human workers’ chances of making the “right” decision will drop as well. The frustration will only be compounded when their accuracy, as humans, is compared with that of a robot, which will continue to pick off the easiest work.”', 'AI Is Coming for Your Favorite Menial Tasks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2011-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 06:46:36', '2019-11-04 06:46:36', '', 2011, 'https://marcellus.in/2011-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2123, 1, '2019-11-04 07:14:43', '2019-11-04 07:14:43', 'Ben Carlson, another star commentator from the fabulous Ritholtz stable, discusses one of the best business books he has read for a long time - Mike Isaac’s book ‘Super Pumped: The Battle For Uber’.\r\nCarlson says that there are no neat black &amp; white takeaways from Uber’s rise; instead there a good, bad and ugly takeaways.\r\nLesson 1 – Tech can clearly &amp; obviously supercharge businesses: “Garrett Camp came up with the idea for Uber in 2008 because the transportation system in the Bay Area was so subpar. Travis Kalanick took that idea and ran with it, creating a business out of thin air that’s now worth more than $50 billion.\r\nA little over 10 years after that idea was hatched, Uber is a company that operates worldwide, using a process that has disrupted the transportation business in an obscenely short amount of time.”\r\nLesson 2 – There is tons of cheap VC money sloshing around in America – The book details “…an Uber company-wide party in Las Vegas to celebrate hitting the $1 billion mark in gross bookings. Thousands of employees were flown to Vegas for an entire week of celebration, drinking, and debauchery. There were open bars everywhere, parties at clubs, and a grand finale performance by Beyonce…” Queen B was paid $6m in restricted stock units for her performance that night even as her husband – a megastar in his own right – sat and watched the wild party.\r\nLesson 3 – Most boards in Silicon Valley (and perhaps most boards everywhere) are useless: The book has a killer anecdote to drive home this point: “Kalanick had a standing meeting with Apple’s Tim Cook and Eddie Cue because the App Store was so important to the Uber’s business model. Cue asked Kalanick why Uber took an investment from Google and placed their chief legal officer on the board, considering both Uber and Google are in the self-driving car space.\r\nKalanick told them bluntly: “The board is irrelevant,” Kalanick said, waving them off of the idea. “I hand pick all of these guys. They do what I tell them, and the way I’ve structured things, I do what I want.”\r\nCue was taken aback. Many founders at least performed a sense of humility in public—a strategic modesty that Kalanick clearly lacked.”\r\nLesson 4 – Most companies cut corners to rise to the top: “Uber…pushed these grey areas to the extreme, going so far as spying on government officials, tracking their digital lives and even following them to their houses to keep tabs on them.\r\nThe most egregious example Isaac used was a line of code called Greyball, which allowed the company to identify people who posed a threat to the company from a regulation perspective when they downloaded the Uber app.\r\nKalanick and the leadership team also took secret meetings with regulators in certain cities to encourage them to go after the competition such as Lyft.”', 'Contradictory Figures: Lessons From Uber’s Rise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2007-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:14:43', '2019-11-04 07:14:43', '', 2007, 'https://marcellus.in/2007-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2124, 1, '2019-11-04 07:15:36', '2019-11-04 07:15:36', 'Another masterpiece by Morgan Housel, more so because the subject matter of the blog is the reason we produce Three longs and three shorts. Morgan brings out the need to have a perspective on a wide variety of topics so as to be in a position to connect seemingly disparate events/issues and draw a coherent meaningful insight. In this piece, Morgan talks about what he considers as the three most important issues influencing humanity today - Demographics, Inequality and Access to Information. On each of these issues, Morgan brings out a historical perspective which can help drive second level thinking and hence a very different take on what might transpire in the future than what is reflected by the current consensus. For example, he reckons that whilst demographically ageing populations might affect most countries in the developed world, America is likely to see its competitiveness rise thanks to a long history of immigration not only offsetting the falling population but also driving enterprise and nation building. On inequality, he takes on an equally sanguine stance that mean reversion historically has meant that the have-nots of today will get together and drive policy towards redistribution. On the internet and breaking down on information barriers, he is less decisive given both fascinating and terrifying things emerge alongside – removal of ideological ignorance and meritocracy as the positives on the one hand to the travesty that fake news creates on the other. A fascinating read nonetheless about how insight is the product of knowledge gained across a diverse set of topics and the ability to join the dots.', 'Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2005-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:15:36', '2019-11-04 07:15:36', '', 2005, 'https://marcellus.in/2005-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2125, 1, '2019-11-04 07:16:31', '2019-11-04 07:16:31', 'We have featured the rise of the fake meat or the plant based protein industry in this space earlier highlighting how this could go a long way in reducing carbon footprint generated by the beef industry. This blog by Seth Miller provides an alternate perspective – about how the success of fake meat may not necessarily disrupt the traditional meat industry and hence consequentially any carbon footprint associated with it. Seth argues that the efficiency of the beef industry where the farm share of the retail shelf price is as high as 45%, even greater than apples and lemons where there’s no processing involved, makes it somewhat immune to the threat from fake meat. Seth’s math using Beyond Meat’s numbers shows that for fake meat to become comparably efficient, volumes will have to rise to such an extent that Beyond Meat alone will have to be larger than the entire cattle market today. With both Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger emerging from Silicon Valley, Seth reckons this is one disruption the valley may not end up pulling off.\r\n“That’s what cows do all day, every day — they eat grass. They use that plant energy to locate more grass, and eat that too. A cow’s ceaseless job is to convert the planet’s most fibrous, lowest quality feed into milk and meat. A cow is an engine that turns sunlight to dollars.\r\nIt is also an engine that pollutes: Cows alone contribute almost as much to climate change as all of the cars in the world — over 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gases. Their nearly indigestible diet nourishes a microbial community which respires methane into belches and nitrous oxide into manure. Tropical rainforest, and all the carbon it keeps, is leveled to create pasture. Gasoline is burned to keep the butchered meat cold and fresh. Every pound of steak we produce adds almost thirty pounds of carbon to the atmosphere. Every pound of steak protein requires 25 pounds of vegetable protein to grow….For the climate to sustain, global dairy and meat consumption must be cut in half from today’s levels. In developed nations like the US, beef consumption must drop 80% or more by 2050….\r\n……..But the cow is a new sort of target for Silicon Valley. A cow is not a hunk of capital like an internal combustion engine or a coal-fired boiler. A cow will not join your social network or be called by an API. A cow is an animal which has been naturally selected, over millions of years, to turn feed into protein as efficiently as nature allows, lest it be out-competed by another, more efficient creature. A cow, thick with meat and fat, is dinner that humans have evolved to love.\r\nSilicon Valley has convened to disrupt a thing that is solar powered, fully autonomous, and has — to borrow one of the Valley’s favorite terms — perfect product-market fit.\r\n…..Ground beef outsells fake meat by a factor of nearly 100-fold, so it is no surprise that it is less expensive. But the opportunity to close the gap remains: a rough rule of thumb for manufacturing is that increasing scale by 10X will drop production costs in half. Make a burger that the masses are willing to eat and costs will come down naturally. The world’s vegan meat corporations will recoup their investments as the market grows.\r\nBut this framework underestimates just how streamlined the cow — and the global beef production system — really is. There is more to the cost of food than just the raw ingredients — there is processing, packaging, marketing, transport. The “farm share” of a Beyond Burger — the total retail value that returns to the farm — is probably just 15¢ per pound of patty. The processed Beyond Burger sells for $12/lb at retail — a price at which the company still loses money — meaning that 1.25% of the shelf price returns to the farm to pay for raw ingredients. This is well below the farm shares of high volume commodity processed food like bread (4%), tofu (2–3%), and roughly on par with a branded product like Coca Cola (1.6%).\r\nMeanwhile, the farm share of a cow is 45%.\r\nAlmost half the grocery store price of ground beef covers the cost of the live cow. Thanks to the magic of commodity capitalism trucks are filled consistently, less meat ages in inventory, and little is lost to waste. With volume high, everyone in the supply chain subsists on a sliver of revenue, and grocery stores keep retail prices at or even below cost to drive traffic into the store.\r\nHow much do economies of scale save? The farm share of beef is double that of apples, and triple that of lemons. We can slaughter beef, box it, transport it across the country and stock it on shelves with lower added cost than we can put a sticker on fruit.\r\nTo match the price of beef on the retail shelf and to win over the bulk of its price-conscious customers, Beyond Meat has to scale. Automated equipment must be erected to purify and texture pea protein, and burgers must be slung at terrifying rates to spread that cost across hundreds of millions of customers. To meet its promise to the Earth, Beyond has to get bigger. Terrifically, implausibly bigger.\r\nTo understand how big requires a little math. Today, Beyond’s small production volume — 20 million pounds of plant burger per year, or just 0.2% of the US ground beef market — leaves each burger 4X more expensive to produce than beef.[3] If we use my simple rule of thumb that a 10X increase in scale will drop costs by 2X, then Beyond will have to scale 100-fold — to 2 billion pounds per year, or 20% of US ground beef production — before it matches beef on production cost.[4] But if it also wants profits — a standard 60% “gross margin” above costs to pay for marketing and provide a return to investors — another halving of production costs and another 10X increase in scale is in order (recall that it must compete with beef, a commodity that gets by with barely any profit at all). A single company would have to produce more fake meat than the entire cattle market sells today.\r\nSimply put, there is no Moore’s Law of meat. There is no exponential technological improvement that inevitably turns a cow into a relic of earlier civilization like a steam engine or photographic film. Our canonical vision of disruption arises in industries overturning early, crude human technology, not a machine that Nature has built. There is no universe where technology-enabled meat is half the price of the original, the way that solar is already half the price of coal in the sunniest areas of the world.\r\nCows are and will remain the technology we wish we could invent: Modular, self-powered factories able to build value from waste. Cows are the open source solution for food, low cost and available to all. Cows are what our technologies might aspire to after a few million years of our own technological evolution, herds of them quietly grooming the planet\r\nWe will not stop eating cow because we have built a better meat. When we stop eating cow, it will be because we have built a better us.”', 'Is it possible to disrupt a cow?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2003-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:16:31', '2019-11-04 07:16:31', '', 2003, 'https://marcellus.in/2003-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2126, 1, '2019-11-04 07:17:51', '2019-11-04 07:17:51', 'In many aspects of our lives, we tend to take certain age-old practices for granted without understanding the underlying principles and context, including our own world of investing - whilst principles of investing are broadly applicable across the world, there are nuances in each market which require a more contextual application. In this article, John F. Sullivan, a former US Army officer who served in China takes a sceptical view of Sun Tzu’s military strategy as expounded in his book - ‘The Art of War’ in terms of its universal applicability across time and place. Indeed, John highlights the fact Chinese military leaders over time themselves have questioned Sun Tzu whereas the West continues to treat his writings as the holy grail of military strategy.\r\n“The main problem, though, is that The Art of War is no longer viewed as merely one entrant within a larger arena of competing strategic ideas. For too many, especially in the West, Sun Tzu is often the lone voice speaking on behalf of millennia of Chinese strategic and military thinking. Michael Handel’s Masters of War, which examines the similarities and differences between Eastern and Western strategic philosophies, exemplifies this issue. While Handel focuses primarily on Clausewitz in examining the Western view of strategy, he also supplements his assessment with the writings of a diverse group of competing theorists from vastly different eras, such as Thucydides, Polybius, Machiavelli, Napoleon, Jomini, Mahan, and Corbett. The Eastern side of the equation focuses exclusively on Sun Tzu, with the exception of a smattering of Mao Zedong quotes. The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box. Within the curriculum of prestigious strategic studies courses such as the U.S. Army War College and Yale’s Program in Grand Strategy, Sun Tzu retains his status as the sole representative of the entire corpus of Chinese strategic thinking.\r\nThis skeptical stance does not suggest that there is nothing of value to be gained from continued study of The Art of War, nor that we should purge it from strategic studies syllabi. There is still much to be admired in the work. “Do not depend on the enemy not coming; depend rather on being ready for him,” should be carved into granite above the main entrance to each of the service’s war colleges.[14] Sun Tzu’s admonition that “a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined to defeat fights in the hope of winning,” should be affixed to the cubicle of every staff officer in the Pentagon.[15] But we err in our unchallenged assumption that Sun Tzu also provides us a viable roadmap to achieving these goals. Despite the prevailing conventional wisdom, the text is much more reflective of the character of warfare during the early Warring States era than a treatise on the unchanging nature of war. If we insist on clinging to the false narrative of Sun Tzu’s enduring relevance, we are destined to fare no better in our quest to master strategy than the oblivious archers of Yue.”', 'Notes from a Sun Tzu skeptic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2001-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:17:51', '2019-11-04 07:17:51', '', 2001, 'https://marcellus.in/2001-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2127, 1, '2019-11-04 07:17:55', '2019-11-04 07:17:55', 'In many aspects of our lives, we tend to take certain age-old practices for granted without understanding the underlying principles and context, including our own world of investing - whilst principles of investing are broadly applicable across the world, there are nuances in each market which require a more contextual application. In this article, John F. Sullivan, a former US Army officer who served in China takes a sceptical view of Sun Tzu’s military strategy as expounded in his book - ‘The Art of War’ in terms of its universal applicability across time and place. Indeed, John highlights the fact Chinese military leaders over time themselves have questioned Sun Tzu whereas the West continues to treat his writings as the holy grail of military strategy.\n“The main problem, though, is that The Art of War is no longer viewed as merely one entrant within a larger arena of competing strategic ideas. For too many, especially in the West, Sun Tzu is often the lone voice speaking on behalf of millennia of Chinese strategic and military thinking. Michael Handel’s Masters of War, which examines the similarities and differences between Eastern and Western strategic philosophies, exemplifies this issue. While Handel focuses primarily on Clausewitz in examining the Western view of strategy, he also supplements his assessment with the writings of a diverse group of competing theorists from vastly different eras, such as Thucydides, Polybius, Machiavelli, Napoleon, Jomini, Mahan, and Corbett. The Eastern side of the equation focuses exclusively on Sun Tzu, with the exception of a smattering of Mao Zedong quotes. The 2,400 intervening years of Chinese strategic writing and history between Sun and Mao—let alone the centuries preceding Sun Tzu—remain an unexamined black box. Within the curriculum of prestigious strategic studies courses such as the U.S. Army War College and Yale’s Program in Grand Strategy, Sun Tzu retains his status as the sole representative of the entire corpus of Chinese strategic thinking.\nThis skeptical stance does not suggest that there is nothing of value to be gained from continued study of The Art of War, nor that we should purge it from strategic studies syllabi. There is still much to be admired in the work. “Do not depend on the enemy not coming; depend rather on being ready for him,” should be carved into granite above the main entrance to each of the service’s war colleges.[14] Sun Tzu’s admonition that “a victorious army wins its victories before seeking battle; an army destined to defeat fights in the hope of winning,” should be affixed to the cubicle of every staff officer in the Pentagon.[15] But we err in our unchallenged assumption that Sun Tzu also provides us a viable roadmap to achieving these goals. Despite the prevailing conventional wisdom, the text is much more reflective of the character of warfare during the early Warring States era than a treatise on the unchanging nature of war. If we insist on clinging to the false narrative of Sun Tzu’s enduring relevance, we are destined to fare no better in our quest to master strategy than the oblivious archers of Yue.”', 'Notes from a Sun Tzu skeptic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2001-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:17:55', '2019-11-04 07:17:55', '', 2001, 'https://marcellus.in/2001-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2128, 1, '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '<hr />\r\n\r\nA whistle blower has released a letter that has set off the events that may well end with President Trump’s impeachment. The contents of the letter are so remarkable that Trump\'s decision to make public the recording of the call to the Ukranian president (which is at the centre of the controversy) in an attempt to nullify the letter has now backfired and compelled the speaker to initiate impeachment proceedings. The reporter of this New Yorker article seems to suggest that the fact that the letter was so accurate without the whistleblower actually been privvy to the actual call means it was orchestrated by someone fully in the know. The coming days and weeks promise to be full of fun and games. It is never a dull day in Trump\'s Washington.\r\n<em>“In the course of my official duties, I have received information from multiple U.S. Government officials that the President of the United States is using the power of his office to solicit interference from a foreign country in the 2020 U.S. election. This interference includes, among other things, pressuring a foreign country to investigate one of the President’s main domestic political rivals. The President’s personal lawyer, Mr. Rudolph Giuliani, is a central figure in this effort. Attorney General Barr appears to be involved as well....</em><i>\r\n<em>The letter was released and made public minutes before Joseph Maguire (the acting director of National Intelligence), was to testify before the House Intelligence Committee about the complaint. The process of impeachment will drag for long but the entire event must have shaken the powerful elites and will make them realise that they are not above law.</em>\r\n<em>For one thing, the whistle-blower can write. The document is a masterpiece of precise bureaucratic prose, laying out a forceful narrative, citing multiple streams of information both from within the Administration and from outside public reporting, and explaining its own logic as it goes. “If a classification marking is applied retroactively, I believe it is incumbent upon the classifying authority to explain why such a marking was applied, and to which specific information it pertains,” the whistle-blower writes on the second page of the document. This is a person who has considered all the angles.</em>\r\n<em>The other important early fact about the letter is that we already have evidence that bolsters the whistle-blower’s credibility. This week, the White House released a sort of summary of the President’s call with the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, a call which is at the center of the whistle-blower’s complaint. The whistle-blower, when he or she wrote this letter, did not have access to the call summary. And yet the substance of Trump’s call with Zelensky is conveyed accurately. This is someone who knew what he or she was talking about.\"</em></i>', 'The House Releases the Declassified Whistle-Blower Complaint Against Donald Trump', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1745-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '2019-11-04 07:19:24', '', 1745, 'https://marcellus.in/1745-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2129, 1, '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '<hr />\r\n\r\nMore than a decade after the Lehman Brothers bust unleashed the greatest tide of liquidity seen in the history of mankind, across the world we are now seeing weird &amp; wonderful transactions in the Tech sector. From WeWork’s stalled IPO to Uber’s tanking share price to, closer home, the remarkable valuation of Ola Electric. Moneycontrol has published a neat little article on the latter issue.\r\nOla, the parent company, was <em>“founded in 2010, Ola has raised $3.3 billion to date, and is valued at $5.7 billion. Key investors in the startup include SoftBank, Tiger Global, Tencent, Matrix Partners and DST Global.”</em>\r\nNow, let’s look at the subsidiary, Ola Electric, the main subject of the article. <em>“On May 26, 2017, Ola Electric was set up as a 100 percent subsidiary of ANI Technologies, which operates Ola, India’s largest cab aggregator. A few dozen people were employed by Ola Electric, but they continued to be on the payroll of Ola (aka ANI Technologies).</em>\r\n<em>Between December 2018 and January 2019, Bhavish Aggarwal, the founder and CEO of Ola, purchased 92.5 percent of the stake in Ola Electric for Rs 92,500. The balance stake was held by Ola for using its brand name. Soon after, a few dozen employees were transferred as full-time Ola Electric employees, documents seen by Moneycontrol show….</em>\r\n<em>In March, Ola Electric raised Rs 300 crore ($42.2 million) from Matrix Partners, Ratan Tata and Tiger Global at an undisclosed valuation. The fundraising was closed in February itself, a month after Aggarwal completed the buyout of Ola Electric. And then, in July, Ola Electric announced that it had raised $250 million from SoftBank at a valuation of $1 billion. Udaan says it is the fastest unicorn in India, taking 25 months to reach this milestone.”</em>\r\nThe Moneycontrol article poses some simple questions: <em>“Between January, when Aggarwal valued Ola Electric at Rs 1 lakh, and July, when it was valued at $1 billion, what changed? Did Ola Electric do something so electrifying that its valuation was supercharged from nothing to a billion dollars in less than six months?”</em>\r\nAnd here is the most ironic aspect of the Ola Electric valuation: <em>“Today, Aggarwal owns a 40 percent stake in Ola Electric worth $400 million. He owns 6.7 percent of Ola, which puts the value of his holding in the company at $382 million. So, for having built Ola from scratch for nine years, Aggarwal’s stake in the company is worth less than what he managed to obtain in just a few months through Ola Electric.”</em>', 'The curious case of Bhavish Aggarwal and Ola Electric', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1743-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '2019-11-04 07:20:47', '', 1743, 'https://marcellus.in/1743-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2130, 1, '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '<hr />\r\n\r\n“When my information changes, I change my mind”, is an oft quoted statement, usually attributed to economist John Keynes. But Keynes clearly is an outlier. Confirmation bias makes people ignore data or information that counters their beliefs, and no matter how hard you try, your arguments, based on facts, will usually have no effect. This piece suggests ways to avoid falling into most common traps that make you close your mind to new information and keep reinforcing your beliefs, no matter how flawed those might be.\r\nThe author says, “Drowning the other person with facts, I assumed, was the best way to prove that global warming is real, the war on drugs has failed, or the current business strategy adopted by your risk-averse boss with zero imagination is not working. Since then, I’ve discovered a significant problem with this approach. It doesn’t work.”\r\nAs a result of the well-documented confirmation bias, we tend to undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. We filter out inconvenient truths and arguments on the opposing side. As a result, our opinions solidify, and it becomes increasingly harder to disrupt established patterns of thinking.\r\nThe author suggests 4 ways to help you change your, or the other person’s mind.\r\n<strong><u>Give the mind an out</u></strong> – We’re reluctant to acknowledge mistakes. The key is to trick the mind by giving it an excuse. Convince your own mind (or your friend) that your prior decision or prior belief was the right one given what you knew, but now that the underlying facts have changed, so should the mind.\r\n<strong><u>Your beliefs are not you</u></strong> – When your beliefs are entwined with your identity, changing your mind means changing your identity. A possible solution, and one that I’ve adopted in my own life, is to put a healthy separation between you and the products of you. At conferences, instead of saying, “In this paper, I argue . . .,” I began to say “This paper argues . . .”\r\n<strong><u>Build up your empathy muscle</u></strong> – If employment is the primary concern of the Detroit auto worker, showing him images of endangered penguins (as adorable as they may be) or Antarctica’s melting glaciers will get you nowhere. Instead, show him how renewable energy will provide job security to his grandchildren. Now, you’ve got his attention.\r\n<strong><u>Get out of your echo chamber</u></strong> – This means our opinions aren’t being stress tested nearly as frequently as they should. Make a point to befriend people who disagree with you. Expose yourself to environments where your opinions can be challenged, as uncomfortable and awkward as that might be.', 'Facts Don’t Change People’s Minds. Here’s What Does', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1741-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '2019-11-04 07:21:29', '', 1741, 'https://marcellus.in/1741-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2131, 1, '2019-11-04 07:22:10', '2019-11-04 07:22:10', 'If building a business with strong competitive advantages is tough, sustaining the competitive advantage is many degrees tougher. In retailing, the internet makes it relatively easy to replicate at scale, an existing business model. And this makes it tough for incumbents to protect their market share till the time they have built enough scale for network effects to start positively strengthening their economic moats. But how does a single-product, online-only business thrive? An online mattress retailing company thinks the answer is in selling ‘sleep’ not just a mattress. Casper, a start-up wants to be the ‘Nike of Sleep’.\r\n<em>“A mattress primer: For a long time, the American market has been dominated by Tempur Sealy and Serta Simmons, both of which date back to the 19th century. But the current state of the industry began to take shape in 2014, when a group of men at a co-working space noticed the direct-to-consumer trend and figured that a good industry to disrupt might be one whose incumbents had been around since Thomas Edison was messing with electricity. They started Casper, and before long it was synonymous with the mattress-in-a-box concept.</em>\r\n<em>But in the years since, Casper has had to shift positions. Dozens of mattress-in-a-box competitors crowded the market. Realizing the limitations of an entirely virtual business model, Casper began opening storefronts and selling products like pillows and sheets. All the while, the wellness industry rose up, with companies attaching their wares to a sense of higher, healthful purpose. While businesses devoted to optimizing most of the core bodily functions abound — start-ups that promise more healthful eating, more holistic hydration, etc. — no company has yet established itself as the clear leader of the sleep space.</em>\r\n<em>So ahead of a possible initial public offering, Casper is trying to recast itself as “the Nike of sleep,” in the company’s phrase. It has assembled a “sleep advisory board” that includes Dr. Lipman, who contributes articles and recipes to Goop.com, in addition to impressively credentialed academics and supposed sleep experts from Brown, the University of Arizona and elsewhere.</em>\r\n<em>“If I’m wearing a pair of Nike shoes, a little part of me feels connected to the Olympic athletes that wear those shoes, and maybe I feel like I’m a little bit faster of a runner. That’s the mentality shift.</em>\r\n<em>There’s no doubt that there is money to be made in sleep: Consider the $149,900 horsetail hair mattress from the Swedish company Hästens, or the parents who spend thousands of dollars on sleep consultants for their newborns. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has decreed sleep deprivation a public health problem, saying that about a third of American adults do not get enough rest — contributing to the sense that quality shut-eye is becoming a luxury.</em>\r\n<em>Today Casper has a $1.1 billion valuation and a slew of imitators, including Purple, Avocado and Leesa. The wrinkle is that Casper has never posted a profit. And its biggest rivals say they are not, well, losing sleep. “Our stock’s up 80 percent, and we’re a $4 billion company,” Scott Thompson, Tempur Sealy’s chief executive, told me. “We’re having a great time.”</em>\r\n<em>But while Mr. Thompson may scoff at the start-ups’ business model, his company has been forced to play catch-up. Tempur Sealy now offers Cocoon, a bed-in-a-box that, just like Casper, comes with a 100-night trial period. Direct-to-consumer sales now account for about 10 percent of the company’s sales. (Last year, Serta Simmons acquired the Casper rival Tuft &amp; Needle.)</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Parikh said Casper’s customer base was “everyone — everyone is in the market for sleep, because everyone can sleep better.” It may be true, but for now, in a business sense, it’s very much a dream.”</em>', 'Casper Dreams of Being Bigger Than Mattresses', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1739-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:22:10', '2019-11-04 07:22:10', '', 1739, 'https://marcellus.in/1739-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2132, 1, '2019-11-04 07:23:11', '2019-11-04 07:23:11', 'It is fashionable to believe these days that Trump, Putin, Modi, Xi, Erdogan, etc have ushered in a new era of right-wing politics wherein all of us being relentlessly subject to propaganda and our liberties are being curtailed. This piece in The Guardian questions this notion and says “<em>It’s not about foreign trolls, filter bubbles or fake news. Technology encourages us to believe we can all have first-hand access to the ‘real’ facts…the single biggest change in our public sphere is that we now have an unimaginable excess of news and content, where once we had scarcity. Suddenly, the analogue channels and professions we depended on for our knowledge of the world have come to seem partial, slow and dispensable.”</em>\r\nBasically, we are now fed so much information that we believe – that in our infinite wisdom – we have the definitive perspective and the last word on every damn thing under the sun. In the process, we have lost sense of perspective: <em>“How exactly do we distinguish this critical mentality from that of the conspiracy theorist, who is convinced that they alone have seen through the official version of events? Or to turn the question around, how might it be possible to recognise the most flagrant cases of bias in the behaviour of reporters and experts, but nevertheless to accept that what they say is often a reasonable depiction of the world?”</em>\r\nOur loss of perspective on what is real and what isn’t, what is relevant and what isn’t is especially devastating for us if <em>“contrary to initial hype surrounding big data, the explosion of information available to us is making it harder, not easier, to achieve consensus on truth. As the quantity of information increases, the need to pick out bite-size pieces of content rises accordingly. In this radically sceptical age, questions of where to look, what to focus on and who to trust are ones that we increasingly seek to answer for ourselves, without the help of intermediaries. This is a liberation of sorts, but it is also at the heart of our deteriorating confidence in public institutions.”</em>\r\nThis loss of faith in public institutions can have powerful implications. Rather than Trump or Modi attacking democracy, our own – self-inflicted – loss of faith in public institutions can undermine democracy. In fact, at Marcellus we would argue this has already happened with many members of Indian urban elite having switched off from the political discourse due to the notion that nothing can be done about Indian politics and Indian politicians. The Guardian article warns us about the dangers of burying our heads in the sand: <em>“Over-reliant on analogies to 20th century totalitarianism, it paints the present moment as a moral conflict between truth and lies, with an unthinking public passively consuming the results. But our relationship to information and news is now entirely different: it has become an active and critical one, that is deeply suspicious of the official line. Nowadays, everyone is engaged in spotting and rebutting propaganda of one kind or another, curating our news feeds, attacking the framing of the other side and consciously resisting manipulation. In some ways, we have become too concerned with truth, to the point where we can no longer agree on it…political problems arise once we turn against all representations and framings of reality, on the basis that these are compromised and biased – as if some purer, unmediated access to the truth might be possible instead. This is a seductive, but misleading ideal.”</em>', 'Why can’t we agree on what’s true anymore?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1737-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:23:11', '2019-11-04 07:23:11', '', 1737, 'https://marcellus.in/1737-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2133, 1, '2019-11-04 07:24:02', '2019-11-04 07:24:02', 'An incredible piece in ESPN on what hours of playing chess can do to your body. Aishwarya Kumar highlights research that shows chess can be as stressful on the body as any other physical sport. The best part of the article however is about the fitness regime of the current world chess champion and a legend already at 29, Magnus Carlsen. Carlsen’s genius is well known but the work ethic to sustain that genius is quite an inspiration. The piece also goes to show why physical fitness is key to succeed in seemingly physically less demanding but mentally stressful vocations, including our own world of investment management. Don’t be surprised if you see a Marcellus portfolio counsellor pumping iron at your neighbourhood gym.\r\n<em>“IT SEEMS ABSURD. How could two humans -- seated for hours, exerting themselves in no greater manner than intermittently extending their arms a foot at a time -- face physical demands?</em>\r\n<em>Still, the evidence overwhelms.</em>\r\n<em>The 1984 World Chess Championship was called off after five months and 48 games because defending champion Anatoly Karpov had lost 22 pounds. \"He looked like death,\" grandmaster and commentator Maurice Ashley recalls.</em>\r\n<em>In 2004, winner Rustam Kasimdzhanov walked away from the six-game world championship having lost 17 pounds. In October 2018, Polar, a U.S.-based company that tracks heart rates, monitored chess players during a tournament and found that 21-year-old Russian grandmaster Mikhail Antipov had burned 560 calories in two hours of sitting and playing chess -- or roughly what Roger Federer would burn in an hour of singles tennis.</em>\r\n<em>Robert Sapolsky, who studies stress in primates at Stanford University, says a chess player can burn up to 6,000 calories a day while playing in a tournament, three times what an average person consumes in a day. Based on breathing rates (which triple during competition), blood pressure (which elevates) and muscle contractions before, during and after major tournaments, Sapolsky suggests that grandmasters\' stress responses to chess are on par with what elite athletes experience.</em>\r\n<em>\"Grandmasters sustain elevated blood pressure for hours in the range found in competitive marathon runners,\" Sapolsky says.</em>\r\n<em>It all combines to produce an average weight loss of 2 pounds a day, or about 10-12 pounds over the course of a 10-day tournament in which each grandmaster might play five or six times.</em>\r\n<em>Grandmasters in competition are subjected to a constant torrent of mental stress. That stress, in turn, causes their heart rates to increase, which, in turn, forces their bodies to produce more energy to, in turn, produce more oxygen. It is, according to Marcus Raichle, a neurologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and Philip Cryer, a metabolism expert at the school, a vicious, destructive cycle.”</em>', 'The grandmaster diet: How to lose weight while barely moving', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1721-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:24:02', '2019-11-04 07:24:02', '', 1721, 'https://marcellus.in/1721-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2134, 1, '2019-11-04 07:24:46', '2019-11-04 07:24:46', 'Once upon a time most of the cricketers in the Indian cricket (men’s and women’s) team came from the posh schools in India’s biggest cities. These schools had names like St. Xavier’s, St. Joseph’s, Don Bosco, etc. That era is fading away as kids in the posh schools in big cities spend their lives glued to their phones &amp; ipads. Both the men’s and women’s cricket teams in India now draw their superstars from working class backgrounds – highly driven, talented, hardworking girls &amp; boys, whose parents’ blue collar jobs mean that financing cricket coaching usually maxes out the family’s finances. Mumbai, it would appear, is on its way to producing yet another wunderkind from this highly reliable talent factory which has propelled India’s rise to the top of Test Cricket rankings.\r\n<em>“Vaidehi Ankolekar, a bus conductor with Brihanmumbai Electricity Supply and Transport (BEST) in Mumbai, rushed to her boss at the bus depot in Marol near Andheri on Saturday with a request for an off. The bosses couldn’t say no to her plea as her son Atharva was playing for India in the final of the Under-19 Asia Cup cricket tournament in Colombo in Sri Lanka.</em>\r\n<em>The leave was granted but another problem awaited at home. The cable TV at her house didn’t have the sports channel that was live-telecasting the game. In order to catch the action, Vaidehi hurried to her in-laws place nearby and spent the rest of the day praying for her son. Her prayers didn’t go unanswered.</em>\r\n<em>Atharva, who is a left-arm spinner, starred with a five-wicket haul to enable India beat Bangladesh by five runs in a low-scoring thriller to retain the Asia Cup title. Batting first, India were all out for 106 in 32.4 overs. Atharva ran through Bangladesh’s middle and lower order, including two wickets in what turned out to be the final over of the match. He was adjudged Player of the Match and finished the eight-team tournament as the highest wicket-taker (12)”.</em>\r\nThe budding star’s mum is a single mother who has slogged it out as a conductor in Mumbai’s buses for eight years to finance her son’s career: <em>“When Atharva was ten, his father Vinod Ankolekar had passed away. To support her two sons, Vaidehi took up her husband’s job of conductor in BEST…A single mother’s life isn’t easy, of course. “We didn’t have money to buy his cricketing shoes, someone had helped him. Other day Atharva had called and said not to buy shoes for his younger brother (who is part of Mumbai’s under-14 probables). He said he would buy them from the money he got as daily allowance in Sri Lanka,” she added.”</em>', 'His bus conductor mother praying back home, Atharva Ankolekar steers India to U-19 Asia Cup title', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1719-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:24:46', '2019-11-04 07:24:46', '', 1719, 'https://marcellus.in/1719-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2135, 1, '2019-11-04 07:25:25', '2019-11-04 07:25:25', 'It couldn’t have been a better week to be talking about inequality as Thomas Piketty’s new book “Capital and Ideology” is published in French (the English version isn’t due until next year). As the man who brought the inequality debate to the front and centre of all political and economic discourse with his award winning book – <em>“Capital in the 21<sup>st</sup> century”,</em> his self-proclaimed new and improved book could have significant ramifications for policy making especially in the rich world – higher income and wealth taxes for the super-rich.\r\n<em>“And he says his new book addresses two shortcomings of the last one, which was too focused on Western economies, and didn’t give enough space to the political ideologies that lie behind inequality.</em>\r\n<em>“Capital and Ideology’’ ranges across time and geography, with analysis of colonial, slave-owning and communist economies, and references to India, China and Brazil.</em>\r\n<em>“In this book I will try to convince the reader that the lessons of history can be leaned upon to define a more demanding norm of justice and equality,” he writes, in an extract from the new book published by Le Monde newspaper.</em>\r\n<em>Piketty says his conclusion is that it’s a mistake to see inequality as rooted in nature, or driven by changes in technology. Its real causes are to be found in politics and ideology -- and that makes it easier to challenge.</em>\r\n<em>In the new book, according to L’Obs, Piketty argues that no shareholder should control more than 10 per cent of voting rights at a company –- even if they hold a much bigger stake.</em>\r\n<em>He backs a kind of capital handout for the public –- a variant of helicopter money. Piketty’s “inheritance for all’’ would grant all French citizens a lump sum of 120,000 euros ($132,000) when they reach the age of 25.</em>\r\n<em>And he advocates a wealth tax to enshrine the idea that ownership of property above a certain value can only be “temporary’’.</em>\r\n<em>In France, for example, the scale would range from a 0.1 per cent charge on wealth below the national average of 200,000 euros, to as much as 90 per cent.</em>\r\n<em>“The system I propose makes it possible to own several million euros, or even tens of millions, at least for a while,’’ Piketty told L’Obs. “But those with several hundred million euros, or several billion, will have to share power.’’</em>', 'Thomas Piketty Back With a 1,200 Page Guide To Abolishing Billionaires', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1717-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:25:25', '2019-11-04 07:25:25', '', 1717, 'https://marcellus.in/1717-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2136, 1, '2019-11-04 07:26:02', '2019-11-04 07:26:02', 'Four weeks ago, the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ee32125f54&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dee32125f54%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569473621625000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzMQLgD5616YseUvrdOQEA42eiHw\">Business Roundtable</a>, a group of CEOs from the world’s largest corporations issued a statement that corporates should move from just focusing on maximising value for shareholders to benefit a wider group of stakeholders – customers, employees, vendors and the community at large. This statement has reignited the debate against capitalism and the consequent effects of inequality across political and economist circles alike. Martin Wolf of the FT offers his perspective on the debate in this lucid piece where he lays the blame primarily on rentier capitalism or financialisation of the global economy among other things. Wolf points out financial services as an industry and finance professionals have gained disproportionately in the last four decades with little contribution to the real economy or productivity growth, some would argue that the contribution has indeed been negative.\r\n<em>“Finance plays a key role, with several dimensions. Liberalised finance tends to metastasise, like a cancer. Thus, the financial sector’s ability to create credit and money finances its own activities, incomes and (often illusory) profits.</em>\r\n<em>A 2015 study by Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi for the Bank for International Settlements said “the level of financial development is good only up to a point, after which it becomes a drag on growth, and that a fast-growing financial sector is detrimental to aggregate productivity growth”. When the financial sector grows quickly, they argue, it hires talented people.</em>\r\n<em>These then lend against property, because it generates collateral. This is a diversion of talented human resources in unproductive, useless directions.</em>\r\n<em>Again, excessive growth of credit almost always leads to crises, as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff showed in This Time is Different. This is why no modern government dares let the supposedly market-driven financial sector operate unaided and unguided. But that in turn creates huge opportunities to gain from irresponsibility: heads, they win; tails, the rest of us lose. Further crises are guaranteed.</em>\r\n<em>Finance also creates rising inequality. Thomas Philippon of the Stern School of Business and Ariell Reshef of the Paris School of Economics showed that the relative earnings of finance professionals exploded upwards in the 1980s with the deregulation of finance. They estimated that “rents” — earnings over and above those needed to attract people into the industry — accounted for 30-50 per cent of the pay differential between finance professionals and the rest of the private sector.</em>\r\n<em>This explosion of financial activity since 1980 has not raised the growth of productivity. If anything, it has lowered it, especially since the crisis. The same is true of the explosion in pay of corporate management, yet another form of rent extraction. As Deborah Hargreaves, founder of the High Pay Centre, notes, in the UK the ratio of average chief executive pay to that of average workers rose from 48 to one in 1998 to 129 to one in 2016. In the US, the same ratio rose from 42 to one in 1980 to 347 to one in 2017.</em>\r\n<em>As the US essayist HL Mencken wrote: “For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” Pay linked to the share price gave management a huge incentive to raise that price, by manipulating earnings or borrowing money to buy the shares. Neither adds value to the company. But they can add a great deal of wealth to management. A related problem with governance is conflicts of interest, notably over independence of auditors.</em>\r\n<em>In sum, personal financial considerations permeate corporate decision-making. As the independent economist Andrew Smithers argues in Productivity and the Bonus Culture, this comes at the expense of corporate investment and so of long-run productivity growth.”</em>', 'Why rigged capitalism is damaging liberal democracy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1715-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:26:02', '2019-11-04 07:26:02', '', 1715, 'https://marcellus.in/1715-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2137, 1, '2019-11-04 07:26:36', '2019-11-04 07:26:36', 'A fascinating piece in Vanity Fair about the contradiction that Imran Khan, the Pakistani cricketing superstar and now Prime Minister, has turned out to be. Pakistani author Aatish Taseer compares Imran’s relationships with women of contrastingly different backgrounds to his ambivalent political stances on Islamic extremism or Western influence. Whilst Aatish reckons some of this has strategic intent to balance the forces at play to achieve his ultimate goals, he also suggests such conflicts are in some ways a reflection of the dichotomy that Pakistani society is dealing with. Full of interesting anecdotes, some quite explosive in true Vanity Fair style, Aatish produces a thoroughly entertaining yet thought provoking article on cricket’s most decorated <em>‘allrounder’.</em>\r\n<em>“The distance between the “day-time Khan” and the “night-time Khan,” his biographer suggests, was something that people had noticed about him even in the 1980s, when he was playing county cricket in Britain. But what one can dismiss in a sportsman is harder to ignore in a politician—especially one who is as stern a moralist as Khan. “To the Weekly Standard,” writes Sandford, “he was the ‘Khan artist’ who continued to ‘inveigh against the West by day and enjoy its pleasures by night.’ ” In treating the West as nothing but a source of permissiveness and turning the East into a romantic symbol of purity, Khan provides a fascinating mirror of the cultural confusions and anxieties of our time.</em>\r\n<em>….“Here he is, trying to play a very difficult game,” Salman Rushdie said of Khan at a panel I chaired in Delhi in 2012. (Khan, the chief guest, had withdrawn in protest upon hearing that the author of The Satanic Verses would be present.) Khan, Rushdie said, was “placating the mullahs on one hand, cozying up to the army on the other, while trying to present himself to the West as the modernizing face of Pakistan.” He added acidly, “I’d concentrate on that, Imran. Try and keep those balls in the air. It’s not going to be easy.”</em>\r\n<em>…Into this gladiatorial arena, shirt open, eyes bedroom-y, hair long and tousled, stepped Khan. He was one of those rare figures, like Muhammad Ali, who emerge once a generation on the frontier of sport, sex, and politics. “Imran may not have been the first player to enjoy his own cult following,” writes his biographer Christopher Sandford, “but he was more or less single-handedly responsible for sexualizing what had hitherto been an austere, male-oriented activity patronized at the most devoted level by the obsessed or the disturbed.”</em>\r\n<em>Arrestingly handsome and Oxford-educated, albeit with a third-class degree, Khan found the doors of the British aristocracy thrown open to him. Mark Shand, the brother of Camilla Parker Bowles, now the Duchess of Cornwall, was among his best friends; he was seen out on the town with Jerry Hall and Goldie Hawn; if his second wife, the television personality Reham Khan, is to be believed, he took part in a threesome with Grace Jones. The man who shunned the label of “playboy”—“I have never considered myself a sex symbol,” he told my mother in 1983—nonetheless left a long line of Khan-quests from Bollywood to Hollywood, with a pit stop in Chelsea, where his flat, with its tented ceilings of gold silk, was one part harem, one part bordello. “He had a lot of women in his life,” my uncle, Yousaf Salahuddin, one of Khan’s best friends and a cultural institution in his own right, told me recently in Lahore, “because he was a very wanted man. In India, I have seen women from the age of just 6 to 60 going crazy over him.” In 1995, at age 43, Khan married Jemima Goldsmith, the daughter of the tycoon Jimmy Goldsmith, who is said to have presciently remarked of his son-in-law, “He’ll make an excellent first husband.” As a teenager, I remember gaping over paparazzi photos of the newly wed couple, including some of them in flagrante on a balcony in Marbella. If the fascination with Khan’s sexual prowess was fetishistic in Britain, it was edged with racial pride in Pakistan. As Mohsin Hamid, the country’s most famous writer, told me in Lahore, “Imran Khan was a symbol of emancipatory virility.”</em>\r\n<em>….Khan, like a real-world version of Stannis Baratheon desperately consulting the Red Woman in Game of Thrones, had begun to see Pinky for “spiritual guidance.” The clairvoyant’s usual fee for making the impossible possible, a senior media figure in Karachi told me on condition of anonymity, was great vats of cooked meat. These, he explained, over a Japanese meal, she fed to the jinns she kept at her disposal.</em>\r\n<em>Then he came to the surreal story that is on the lips of everyone in Pakistan, from senior diplomats and ministers to journalists and entertainers. Although Maneka has dismissed it as mere rumor, the story has attained the status of fable—a supernatural tale that seeks to illuminate a deeper truth. Once Maneka had her prophetic vision, the media veteran told me, no amount of cooked meat would suffice to fulfill Khan’s ambition. The voice in her dream was clear: If Imran Khan was to be prime minister, it was imperative he be married to the right woman—i.e., a member of Maneka’s own family.</em>\r\n<em>In one version of this torrid tale, Maneka offered her sister to Khan. In another, it was her daughter. Either way, Khan demurred. Then Maneka went away to dream again. This time, however, she was no bystander to someone else’s vision. The voice in her head told her that she, Bushra Maneka, a married woman and a mother of five, was the wife Imran Khan needed. What Maneka now wanted from Khan was what every woman had ever wanted from him: She wanted him.</em>\r\n<em>Khan had never set eyes on Maneka, for she consulted her followers from behind a veil. But this time, he acceded to her vision. The stars aligned and Maneka’s husband, a customs official, agreed to give her a divorce, praising Khan as a “disciple of our spiritual family.”</em>\r\n<em>In February 2018, cricketer and clairvoyant were married in a private ceremony. Six months later, Imran Khan was elected prime minister of Pakistan, and Pinky Peerni, a character who would stretch the limits of Salman Rushdie’s imagination, was its first lady.”</em>', 'He Is Trying To Play A Very Difficult Game\": The Once And Future Imran Khan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1713-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:26:36', '2019-11-04 07:26:36', '', 1713, 'https://marcellus.in/1713-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2138, 1, '2019-11-04 07:27:05', '2019-11-04 07:27:05', 'At Marcellus, we are big fans of giant data-hungry quant screens which can rigorously sift through years of data on thousands of companies and give us a small set of 25-30 companies on which can do detailed qualitative research. Given such proclivities, we found this piece in Barron’s to be a really interesting read. The article profiles a fund manager called Bob Bergson who runs a US$446mn fund called ‘Northern Small Cap Core’. Barron’s says, <em>“While some fund managers devote the majority of their time to uncovering the very best companies, Bob Bergson has spent nearly a decade making sure that his $446 million Northern Small Cap Core fund avoids the very worst.</em>\r\n<em>It helps that underperforming companies exhibit common traits: declining margins, too much debt, and inadequate cash flow, to name a few. Meanwhile, “successful companies tend to have very individual paths,” says Bergson, 54.”</em>\r\nInterestingly, rather than screening to get the best companies, Bergson screens to avoid the worst: <em>“Bergson uses a factor-based approach to give investors exposure to the broader small-cap universe—minus the worst of the worst. The goal is to capture the outsize return characteristics of small companies, while keeping stock-specific risks and trading costs in check. Over the past decade, the fund (ticker: NSGRX) has returned an average of more than 12% a year, putting it ahead of 87% of its small-blend peers and the Russell 2000 index.”</em>\r\nUnderlying this investment philosophy are some interesting insights from Bergson: <em>““I wanted to understand where you get rewarded for the risk you take and how to avoid the sorts of risks you don’t think you’re getting rewarded for,” says Bergson…</em> <em>“Some of the biggest outsize returns in the space come from the smallest segments of the small-cap universe,” he says, noting that stocks added to the Russell 2000 returned, on average, more than double the index in the year prior. Admittedly, these results are positively skewed—the stocks make it into the index because they outperformed—“but if you don’t have exposure to them, you miss out on a big portion of that upside,” he says. As an added benefit, microcap stocks have a slightly lower correlation to the broader market, he says. In a big selloff, he says, “What do investors sell first? It’s not the microcaps. It’s larger, more liquid securities.”</em>\r\nAlongside this unique investing philosophy, Bergson maintains low levels of churn in his portfolio: <em>“Bergson and his team, which includes four co-managers, don’t screen microcaps for quality. Instead, they aim to own a large sample that reflects sector weightings of the Russell 2000, and keep trading to a minimum. “You let the market, in a sense, reward that exposure,” says Bergson, whose portfolio turnover was recently just 21%....</em> <em>It’s far easier to identify companies that are least likely to succeed, he says. That emphasis on what not to buy helps minimize turnover and saves on trading costs. Eight of the fund’s recent top 10 holdings have been in the portfolio since Bergson took over in 2010…”</em>', 'How a Small-Cap Fund Weeds Out the Worst Stocks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:27:05', '2019-11-04 07:27:05', '', 1711, 'https://marcellus.in/1711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2139, 1, '2019-11-04 07:27:35', '2019-11-04 07:27:35', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a combination of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=dd0d9fc716&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Ddd0d9fc716%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083440000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_2GK-uMZcHdloSzVrjlCf2XBN7w\">some massive tree planting drives</a> and growing agricultural intensity.\r\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\r\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\r\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\r\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\r\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\r\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\r\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1708-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:27:35', '2019-11-04 07:27:35', '', 1708, 'https://marcellus.in/1708-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2140, 1, '2019-11-04 07:28:27', '2019-11-04 07:28:27', 'An incredible piece in ESPN on what hours of playing chess can do to your body. Aishwarya Kumar highlights research that shows chess can be as stressful on the body as any other physical sport. The best part of the article however is about the fitness regime of the current world chess champion and a legend already at 29, Magnus Carlsen. Carlsen’s genius is well known but the work ethic to sustain that genius is quite an inspiration. The piece also goes to show why physical fitness is key to succeed in seemingly physically less demanding but mentally stressful vocations, including our own world of investment management. Don’t be surprised if you see a Marcellus portfolio counsellor pumping iron at your neighbourhood gym.\r\n<em>“IT SEEMS ABSURD. How could two humans -- seated for hours, exerting themselves in no greater manner than intermittently extending their arms a foot at a time -- face physical demands?</em>\r\n<em>Still, the evidence overwhelms.</em>\r\n<em>The 1984 World Chess Championship was called off after five months and 48 games because defending champion Anatoly Karpov had lost 22 pounds. \"He looked like death,\" grandmaster and commentator Maurice Ashley recalls.</em>\r\n<em>In 2004, winner Rustam Kasimdzhanov walked away from the six-game world championship having lost 17 pounds. In October 2018, Polar, a U.S.-based company that tracks heart rates, monitored chess players during a tournament and found that 21-year-old Russian grandmaster Mikhail Antipov had burned 560 calories in two hours of sitting and playing chess -- or roughly what Roger Federer would burn in an hour of singles tennis.</em>\r\n<em>Robert Sapolsky, who studies stress in primates at Stanford University, says a chess player can burn up to 6,000 calories a day while playing in a tournament, three times what an average person consumes in a day. Based on breathing rates (which triple during competition), blood pressure (which elevates) and muscle contractions before, during and after major tournaments, Sapolsky suggests that grandmasters\' stress responses to chess are on par with what elite athletes experience.</em>\r\n<em>\"Grandmasters sustain elevated blood pressure for hours in the range found in competitive marathon runners,\" Sapolsky says.</em>\r\n<em>It all combines to produce an average weight loss of 2 pounds a day, or about 10-12 pounds over the course of a 10-day tournament in which each grandmaster might play five or six times.</em>\r\n<em>Grandmasters in competition are subjected to a constant torrent of mental stress. That stress, in turn, causes their heart rates to increase, which, in turn, forces their bodies to produce more energy to, in turn, produce more oxygen. It is, according to Marcus Raichle, a neurologist at Washington University in St. Louis, and Philip Cryer, a metabolism expert at the school, a vicious, destructive cycle.”</em>', 'The grandmaster diet: How to lose weight while barely moving', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1721-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:28:27', '2019-11-04 07:28:27', '', 1721, 'https://marcellus.in/1721-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2141, 1, '2019-11-04 07:30:14', '2019-11-04 07:30:14', 'At Marcellus, we are big fans of giant data-hungry quant screens which can rigorously sift through years of data on thousands of companies and give us a small set of 25-30 companies on which can do detailed qualitative research. Given such proclivities, we found this piece in Barron’s to be a really interesting read. The article profiles a fund manager called Bob Bergson who runs a US$446mn fund called ‘Northern Small Cap Core’. Barron’s says, <em>“While some fund managers devote the majority of their time to uncovering the very best companies, Bob Bergson has spent nearly a decade making sure that his $446 million Northern Small Cap Core fund avoids the very worst.</em>\r\n<em>It helps that underperforming companies exhibit common traits: declining margins, too much debt, and inadequate cash flow, to name a few. Meanwhile, “successful companies tend to have very individual paths,” says Bergson, 54.”</em>\r\nInterestingly, rather than screening to get the best companies, Bergson screens to avoid the worst: <em>“Bergson uses a factor-based approach to give investors exposure to the broader small-cap universe—minus the worst of the worst. The goal is to capture the outsize return characteristics of small companies, while keeping stock-specific risks and trading costs in check. Over the past decade, the fund (ticker: NSGRX) has returned an average of more than 12% a year, putting it ahead of 87% of its small-blend peers and the Russell 2000 index.”</em>\r\nUnderlying this investment philosophy are some interesting insights from Bergson: <em>““I wanted to understand where you get rewarded for the risk you take and how to avoid the sorts of risks you don’t think you’re getting rewarded for,” says Bergson…</em> <em>“Some of the biggest outsize returns in the space come from the smallest segments of the small-cap universe,” he says, noting that stocks added to the Russell 2000 returned, on average, more than double the index in the year prior. Admittedly, these results are positively skewed—the stocks make it into the index because they outperformed—“but if you don’t have exposure to them, you miss out on a big portion of that upside,” he says. As an added benefit, microcap stocks have a slightly lower correlation to the broader market, he says. In a big selloff, he says, “What do investors sell first? It’s not the microcaps. It’s larger, more liquid securities.”</em>\r\nAlongside this unique investing philosophy, Bergson maintains low levels of churn in his portfolio: <em>“Bergson and his team, which includes four co-managers, don’t screen microcaps for quality. Instead, they aim to own a large sample that reflects sector weightings of the Russell 2000, and keep trading to a minimum. “You let the market, in a sense, reward that exposure,” says Bergson, whose portfolio turnover was recently just 21%....</em> <em>It’s far easier to identify companies that are least likely to succeed, he says. That emphasis on what not to buy helps minimize turnover and saves on trading costs. Eight of the fund’s recent top 10 holdings have been in the portfolio since Bergson took over in 2010…”</em>', 'How a Small-Cap Fund Weeds Out the Worst Stocks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1711-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:30:14', '2019-11-04 07:30:14', '', 1711, 'https://marcellus.in/1711-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2144, 1, '2019-11-04 08:40:13', '2019-11-04 08:40:13', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2016/07/18/india-planted-50-million-trees-24-hours/#6523d3066f99\">combination of some massive tree</a>  and growing agricultural intensity.\r\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\r\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\r\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\r\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\r\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\r\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\r\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1708-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 08:40:13', '2019-11-04 08:40:13', '', 1708, 'https://marcellus.in/1708-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2142, 1, '2019-11-04 07:33:07', '2019-11-04 07:33:07', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a combination of <a href=\"http://&lt;a href=&quot;https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2016/07/18/india-planted-50-million-trees-24-hours/#2a39650f6f99&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;some massive tree planting drives&lt;/a&gt;\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Ddd0d9fc716%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083440000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_2GK-uMZcHdloSzVrjlCf2XBN7w\">some massive tree planting drives</a> and growing agricultural intensity.\r\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\r\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\r\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\r\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\r\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\r\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\r\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1708-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 07:33:07', '2019-11-04 07:33:07', '', 1708, 'https://marcellus.in/1708-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2143, 1, '2019-11-04 08:39:15', '2019-11-04 08:39:15', 'Amidst all the doom and gloom around how we humans are destroying the planet in the wake of the Amazon fires, here’s a refreshingly positive piece from earlier this year. According to data from NASA satellites, the world is literally a greener place than it was 20yrs ago. And surprisingly, the countries making the biggest difference are China and India, thanks to a combination of <a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2016/07/18/india-planted-50-million-trees-24-hours/#6523d3066f99\">some massive tree  and growing agricultural intensity</a>.\n“….<em>This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.</em>\n<em>Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.</em>\n<em>“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.</em>\n<em>An advantage of the MODIS satellite sensor is the intensive coverage it provides, both in space and time: MODIS has captured as many as four shots of every place on Earth, every day for the last 20 years….</em>\n<em>China’s outsized contribution to the global greening trend comes in large part (42%) from programs to conserve and expand forests. These were developed in an effort to reduce the effects of soil erosion, air pollution and climate change. Another 32% there – and 82% of the greening seen in India – comes from intensive cultivation of food crops.</em>\n<em>Land area used to grow crops is comparable in China and India – more than 770,000 square miles – and has not changed much since the early 2000s. Yet these regions have greatly increased both their annual total green leaf area and their food production. This was achieved through multiple cropping practices, where a field is replanted to produce another harvest several times a year. Production of grains, vegetables, fruits and more have increased by about 35-40% since 2000 to feed their large populations….</em>\n<em>….Overall, Nemani sees a positive message in the new findings. “Once people realize there’s a problem, they tend to fix it,” he said. “In the 70s and 80s in India and China, the situation around vegetation loss wasn’t good; in the 90s, people realized it; and today things have improved. Humans are incredibly resilient. That’s what we see in the satellite data.””</em>', 'Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1708-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 08:39:15', '2019-11-04 08:39:15', '', 1708, 'https://marcellus.in/1708-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2145, 1, '2019-11-04 09:04:26', '2019-11-04 09:04:26', '', 'Brand', 'Brand related words. Part of a series of business concepts.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'brand', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:04:26', '2019-11-04 09:04:26', '', 346, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Reverse-Positioned-Brands-1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
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(2147, 1, '2019-11-04 09:10:54', '2019-11-04 09:10:54', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:10:54', '2019-11-04 09:10:54', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2148, 1, '2019-11-04 09:18:31', '2019-11-04 09:18:31', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:18:31', '2019-11-04 09:18:31', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2149, 1, '2019-11-04 09:23:40', '2019-11-04 09:23:40', '', 'Male hand holding gold medal against the dramatic sky', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'male-hand-holding-gold-medal-against-the-dramatic-sky', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:23:40', '2019-11-04 09:23:40', '', 356, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/The-Hero-Delusion-in-Sport-Business-Elsewhere.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2150, 1, '2019-11-04 09:32:11', '2019-11-04 09:32:11', '', 'Datamining', 'Data mining (dataminig) process and big data analysis (bigdata) issue concept. Analyst give you structured and relevant data.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'datamining', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:32:11', '2019-11-04 09:32:11', '', 1493, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Small-Data-is-More-Important-than-Big-Data.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2152, 1, '2019-11-04 09:39:24', '2019-11-04 09:39:24', '', 'Elections are irrelevant for equity investors', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'elections-are-irrelevant-for-equity-investors-2', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:39:24', '2019-11-04 09:39:24', '', 351, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Elections-are-irrelevant-for-equity-investors.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2153, 1, '2019-11-04 09:42:43', '2019-11-04 09:42:43', '', 'Reversion to the mean in politics & investing', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'reversion-to-the-mean-in-politics-investing-2', '', '', '2019-11-04 09:42:43', '2019-11-04 09:42:43', '', 339, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Reversion-to-the-mean-in-politics-investing.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2155, 1, '2019-11-05 04:02:05', '2019-11-05 04:02:05', 'This epic takedown of WeWork will go down in the history of journalism as one of the defining pieces which captured the craziness of the post-QE world. Matt Levine has written a rip-roaring piece designed to enliven even the most down-at-heel start-up owner.\r\nThe article begins on a business-like note: <em>“A lot of kids starting at Harvard Business School next fall will be hanging up posters of Adam Neumann in their dorm rooms. Neumann, the founder of WeWork, will walk away from this corporate bonfire with a billion dollars and a bunch of fancy houses. His great-grandchildren will be prominent philanthropists with their names on museums and universities, the strange origin of their fortunes long forgotten. Neumann did a certain sort of capitalism—one with some cachet at HBS!—as well as anyone has ever done it… Neumann created a company that destroyed value at a blistering pace and nonetheless extracted a billion dollars for himself. He lit $10 billion of SoftBank’s money on fire and then went back to them and demanded a 10% commission....”</em>\r\nThe Levine steps on the gas and says: <em>“My very favorite part of the Adam Neumann legend might be the story of his first encounter with Masayoshi Son, who runs SoftBank Group Corp. and invests its vast piles of money. (One insane aspect of this encounter is that it happened in 2017. A busy two years!) “Mr. Neumann has told others that Mr. Son appreciated how he was crazy—but thought that he needed to be crazier.” I like to imagine that conversation with the hindsight of the last few months:</em>\r\n<em>Son: What does your company do?</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: We lease office buildings, spruce up the space and sublet it in small chunks.</em>\r\n<em>Son: Hmm I invest in visionary tech stuff, this doesn’t really sound like my thing.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: Did I mention we are a state of consciousness. A generation of interconnected emotionally intelligent entrepreneurs.</em>\r\n<em>Son: Okay yeah that’s more like—</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: The world’s first physical social network. We encompass all aspects of people’s lives, in both physical and digital worlds.</em>\r\n<em>Son: You’re crazy! I love it! But could you be, say, ten times crazier?</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: You’re going to invest $10 billion in my company, which I will use as kindling to light the whole edifice on fire, and then when we are both standing in the ashes you will pay me another billion dollars to walk away while I laugh at you.</em>\r\n<em>Son: All my life I have dreamed of meeting someone as crazy as you, but I never really believed this day would come.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: I’m gonna use your money to buy a mansion with a room shaped like a guitar, where I will play the world’s tiniest violin after all your money is gone.</em>\r\n<em>Son: YES PUNCH ME IN THE FACE.</em>\r\n<em>Neumann: Also I’ll rename the company “We” and charge it $6 million for the name.</em>\r\n<em>Son: RUN ME OVER WITH A TRUCK.”</em>\r\nAfter this the article gets even better as Levine overlays sarcasm and analysis in equal measure. Wouldn’t it be fun if Indian crony capitalists were also subjected to the Matt Levine treatment?', 'How Do You Like We Now', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2154-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:02:05', '2019-11-05 04:02:05', '', 2154, 'https://marcellus.in/2154-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2156, 1, '2019-11-03 04:02:23', '2019-11-03 04:02:23', 'Just as a surprise burst of showers sent Mumbaikars scrambling around on Friday, you could hear Axl Rose, Slash and co belting out <em>November Rain</em> in your mind only to be interrupted by the cab driver ranting about how we have brought all this upon ourselves by felling trees and building a concrete mess. This coincided with the Delhi government shutting down schools until the 5<sup>th</sup> of November due to deteriorating air quality conditions. If you thought that things couldn’t get worse, a new research paper <em>- New Elevation Data Triple Estimates Of Global Vulnerability To Sea-level Rise And Coastal Flooding </em>by Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. Strauss says <em>“We have severely underestimated just how much global coastlines are in danger from rising sea levels”. </em>To the extent that large parts of Mumbai and Kolkata could be underwater in as little as 30yrs. Turns out that all these years we have been overestimating the elevation of land - hence the startling finding that at the current pace of rising water levels, we would be submerged much sooner than we thought.\r\n<em>“Take India, for example: Even by moderate estimates, by 2050, 36 million people (going by the 2010 census) living in coastal areas will be at risk from annual flooding due to sea-level rise; the previous estimate was five million. By the end of the century, these areas will be permanently underwater, and the number of affected people would go up to 44 million; much of Mumbai and Kolkata, as well as Odisha’s coast, coastal Gujarat around Surat and the Sunderbans in Bengal will be badly affected.</em>\r\n<em>…The reason for this worse-than-imagined scenario is based on the computational model developed by Kulp and Strauss. Currently, coastal elevation data is primarily measured using Nasa’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The authors found the data to be unreliable, in that SRTM was seen to overestimate global coastal elevations by as much as 6ft. This went up to 8-15ft in some places around the world. To negate the mistakes in estimates, they devised the CoastalDEM (digital elevation model), using machine learning for truer coastal elevations. The results are astonishing.</em>\r\n<em>Imagine a Mumbai that, by 2050, will be subjected to severe annual floods, reducing the city and its immediate neighbourhoods to the islands they once were. According to interactive maps on the Climate Central website, a future scenario of limited mitigation and no adaptation would turn areas like Colaba, Malabar Hill, Bandra West and the Sanjay Gandhi National Park into isolated patches rising above the flood. Much of the city, which is below the tideline, will be overwhelmed, all the way up past Vasai and Nala Sopara to the north, and Navi Mumbai and Dombivili to the east. Sensitive infrastructure, like the reactors of the Bhabha Atomic Centre, would be at risk.”</em>', 'Mumbai and Kolkata face the wrath of sea-level rise', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mumbai-and-kolkata-face-the-wrath-of-sea-level-rise', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:04:11', '2019-11-05 04:04:11', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2156', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2157, 1, '2019-11-05 04:04:11', '2019-11-05 04:04:11', 'Just as a surprise burst of showers sent Mumbaikars scrambling around on Friday, you could hear Axl Rose, Slash and co belting out <em>November Rain</em> in your mind only to be interrupted by the cab driver ranting about how we have brought all this upon ourselves by felling trees and building a concrete mess. This coincided with the Delhi government shutting down schools until the 5<sup>th</sup> of November due to deteriorating air quality conditions. If you thought that things couldn’t get worse, a new research paper <em>- New Elevation Data Triple Estimates Of Global Vulnerability To Sea-level Rise And Coastal Flooding </em>by Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. Strauss says <em>“We have severely underestimated just how much global coastlines are in danger from rising sea levels”. </em>To the extent that large parts of Mumbai and Kolkata could be underwater in as little as 30yrs. Turns out that all these years we have been overestimating the elevation of land - hence the startling finding that at the current pace of rising water levels, we would be submerged much sooner than we thought.\r\n<em>“Take India, for example: Even by moderate estimates, by 2050, 36 million people (going by the 2010 census) living in coastal areas will be at risk from annual flooding due to sea-level rise; the previous estimate was five million. By the end of the century, these areas will be permanently underwater, and the number of affected people would go up to 44 million; much of Mumbai and Kolkata, as well as Odisha’s coast, coastal Gujarat around Surat and the Sunderbans in Bengal will be badly affected.</em>\r\n<em>…The reason for this worse-than-imagined scenario is based on the computational model developed by Kulp and Strauss. Currently, coastal elevation data is primarily measured using Nasa’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). The authors found the data to be unreliable, in that SRTM was seen to overestimate global coastal elevations by as much as 6ft. This went up to 8-15ft in some places around the world. To negate the mistakes in estimates, they devised the CoastalDEM (digital elevation model), using machine learning for truer coastal elevations. The results are astonishing.</em>\r\n<em>Imagine a Mumbai that, by 2050, will be subjected to severe annual floods, reducing the city and its immediate neighbourhoods to the islands they once were. According to interactive maps on the Climate Central website, a future scenario of limited mitigation and no adaptation would turn areas like Colaba, Malabar Hill, Bandra West and the Sanjay Gandhi National Park into isolated patches rising above the flood. Much of the city, which is below the tideline, will be overwhelmed, all the way up past Vasai and Nala Sopara to the north, and Navi Mumbai and Dombivili to the east. Sensitive infrastructure, like the reactors of the Bhabha Atomic Centre, would be at risk.”</em>', 'Mumbai and Kolkata face the wrath of sea-level rise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2156-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:04:11', '2019-11-05 04:04:11', '', 2156, 'https://marcellus.in/2156-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2158, 1, '2019-11-03 04:04:28', '2019-11-03 04:04:28', 'It is often said that in the world of investing, the most important personality trait for success is humility, especially the intellectual kind – defined as an awareness of one’s limitations of knowledge and understanding of the world. However, it is also often the hardest to sustain given the job requires one to demonstrate enough conviction to be able to act on ideas which goes against consensus. This article in the NYT talks about how research psychologists are digging deeper into this personality trait with the view to understand if humility can be taught or inculcated in an individual. Research findings show that humility is often corelated with other traits such as curiosity, reflection and open-mindedness. Indeed, another study has shown that it is inversely corelated to political and ideological polarisation i.e, a person with intellectual humility is likely to be a centrist. On that basis, one wonders if there is any humility left in the world. Intellectually humble are also less gullible to propaganda. More importantly, research shows how humility can help with committed relationships and even enhancing mental health.\r\n<em>“…Other research has found that people who score high for humility are less aggressive and less judgmental toward members of other religious groups than are less-humble people, even and especially after being challenged about their own religious views.</em>\r\n<em>“These kinds of findings may account for the fact that people high in intellectual humility are not easily manipulated with regard to their views,” Dr. Krumrei Mancuso said. The findings, she added, may also “help us understand how humility can be associated with holding convictions.”</em>\r\n<em>In the new review paper, Dr. Van Tongeren and his colleagues proposed several explanations for why humility, intellectual or otherwise, is such a valuable facet of personality. A humble disposition can be critical to sustaining a committed relationship. It may also nourish mental health more broadly, providing a psychological resource to shake off grudges, suffer fools patiently and forgive oneself.</em>\r\n<em>Now that humility is attracting some research attention, Dr. Van Tongeren said, there are a number of open questions, including whether it can somehow be taught, or perhaps integrated into psychotherapy. “One of the thorny issues is that the people who are the most open and willing cultivate humility might be the ones who need it the least,” he said. “And vice versa: Those most in need could be the most resistant.”</em>', 'Be Humble, and Proudly, Psychologists Say', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'be-humble-and-proudly-psychologists-say', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:17:33', '2019-11-05 04:17:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2158', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2159, 1, '2019-11-05 04:17:33', '2019-11-05 04:17:33', 'It is often said that in the world of investing, the most important personality trait for success is humility, especially the intellectual kind – defined as an awareness of one’s limitations of knowledge and understanding of the world. However, it is also often the hardest to sustain given the job requires one to demonstrate enough conviction to be able to act on ideas which goes against consensus. This article in the NYT talks about how research psychologists are digging deeper into this personality trait with the view to understand if humility can be taught or inculcated in an individual. Research findings show that humility is often corelated with other traits such as curiosity, reflection and open-mindedness. Indeed, another study has shown that it is inversely corelated to political and ideological polarisation i.e, a person with intellectual humility is likely to be a centrist. On that basis, one wonders if there is any humility left in the world. Intellectually humble are also less gullible to propaganda. More importantly, research shows how humility can help with committed relationships and even enhancing mental health.\r\n<em>“…Other research has found that people who score high for humility are less aggressive and less judgmental toward members of other religious groups than are less-humble people, even and especially after being challenged about their own religious views.</em>\r\n<em>“These kinds of findings may account for the fact that people high in intellectual humility are not easily manipulated with regard to their views,” Dr. Krumrei Mancuso said. The findings, she added, may also “help us understand how humility can be associated with holding convictions.”</em>\r\n<em>In the new review paper, Dr. Van Tongeren and his colleagues proposed several explanations for why humility, intellectual or otherwise, is such a valuable facet of personality. A humble disposition can be critical to sustaining a committed relationship. It may also nourish mental health more broadly, providing a psychological resource to shake off grudges, suffer fools patiently and forgive oneself.</em>\r\n<em>Now that humility is attracting some research attention, Dr. Van Tongeren said, there are a number of open questions, including whether it can somehow be taught, or perhaps integrated into psychotherapy. “One of the thorny issues is that the people who are the most open and willing cultivate humility might be the ones who need it the least,” he said. “And vice versa: Those most in need could be the most resistant.”</em>', 'Be Humble, and Proudly, Psychologists Say', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2158-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:17:33', '2019-11-05 04:17:33', '', 2158, 'https://marcellus.in/2158-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2160, 1, '2019-11-03 04:17:58', '2019-11-03 04:17:58', '<hr />\r\n\r\nNick Maggiulli comes out with a timely post on the subject of valuations when investors world over are questioning the future of value investing. Nick for one doesn’t debunk value investing either – indeed his post on margin of safety last year (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=11891291e2&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D11891291e2%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533729000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqMFJ9TikjS2VqXQ-G7-mw3xWBDw\">here</a>) emphasises the importance of price in any investment decision i.e, price should be below the intrinsic value with a margin of safety. What he questions here though is the ability of PE (or for that matter, even a more credible Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE)) to determine the intrinsic value. For starters, he demonstrates how PE is at best a relative measure of value – relative to other similar markets or stocks or for the more evolved, relative to its own historical averages. It is not an absolute measure of value either way - <em>“For example, is a CAPE of 20 high or low?  It isn’t either.  It’s just high or low relative to what people have paid historically.  That’s it.  If investors collectively decide that they want to pay more for the same amount of earnings going forward, then what used to be considered “high” is now normal.  As economic circumstances change, so will peoples’ willingness to pay more (or less) for stocks.”</em> Whilst Nick’s arguments are at the market level, similar arguments for the shortcomings of the use of PE as the last word on valuation can be made for single stocks as well - PE fails to capture the extent of future growth, the longevity of growth nor the volatility of growth. See our July newsletter <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=27da422c64&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D27da422c64%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEGf9WMY62jT8AcLz8qP8yBhoYJcg\">here</a> for more on the subject of longevity of growth. In a separate <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3011e56253&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3011e56253%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHO6kpgWRUPaO2omwVXGFnUHyMydQ\">blog</a> from earlier this year, Morgan Housel comes at it from the point of investing time horizon – longer the horizon less the effect of starting PE on eventual returns, beautifully bringing out the fact that PE multiples DO NOT compound but earnings do, mostly. Why then is PE the most popular valuation metric used globally? First, it is easy to compute - all you need is the current share price and either trailing or forward earnings for one year and it is simple enough for most people to understand. Whatever said and done, it does form a reasonable starting point for valuation.', 'The sCAPEgoat: Why Valuations Get More Attention Than They Deserve', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-scapegoat-why-valuations-get-more-attention-than-they-deserve', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2160', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2161, 1, '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '<hr />\r\n\r\nNick Maggiulli comes out with a timely post on the subject of valuations when investors world over are questioning the future of value investing. Nick for one doesn’t debunk value investing either – indeed his post on margin of safety last year (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=11891291e2&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D11891291e2%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533729000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqMFJ9TikjS2VqXQ-G7-mw3xWBDw\">here</a>) emphasises the importance of price in any investment decision i.e, price should be below the intrinsic value with a margin of safety. What he questions here though is the ability of PE (or for that matter, even a more credible Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE)) to determine the intrinsic value. For starters, he demonstrates how PE is at best a relative measure of value – relative to other similar markets or stocks or for the more evolved, relative to its own historical averages. It is not an absolute measure of value either way - <em>“For example, is a CAPE of 20 high or low?  It isn’t either.  It’s just high or low relative to what people have paid historically.  That’s it.  If investors collectively decide that they want to pay more for the same amount of earnings going forward, then what used to be considered “high” is now normal.  As economic circumstances change, so will peoples’ willingness to pay more (or less) for stocks.”</em> Whilst Nick’s arguments are at the market level, similar arguments for the shortcomings of the use of PE as the last word on valuation can be made for single stocks as well - PE fails to capture the extent of future growth, the longevity of growth nor the volatility of growth. See our July newsletter <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=27da422c64&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D27da422c64%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEGf9WMY62jT8AcLz8qP8yBhoYJcg\">here</a> for more on the subject of longevity of growth. In a separate <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3011e56253&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3011e56253%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHO6kpgWRUPaO2omwVXGFnUHyMydQ\">blog</a> from earlier this year, Morgan Housel comes at it from the point of investing time horizon – longer the horizon less the effect of starting PE on eventual returns, beautifully bringing out the fact that PE multiples DO NOT compound but earnings do, mostly. Why then is PE the most popular valuation metric used globally? First, it is easy to compute - all you need is the current share price and either trailing or forward earnings for one year and it is simple enough for most people to understand. Whatever said and done, it does form a reasonable starting point for valuation.', 'The sCAPEgoat: Why Valuations Get More Attention Than They Deserve', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2160-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '2019-11-05 04:19:20', '', 2160, 'https://marcellus.in/2160-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2162, 1, '2019-11-05 04:19:24', '2019-11-05 04:19:24', '<hr />\n\nNick Maggiulli comes out with a timely post on the subject of valuations when investors world over are questioning the future of value investing. Nick for one doesn’t debunk value investing either – indeed his post on margin of safety last year (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=11891291e2&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D11891291e2%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533729000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqMFJ9TikjS2VqXQ-G7-mw3xWBDw\">here</a>) emphasises the importance of price in any investment decision i.e, price should be below the intrinsic value with a margin of safety. What he questions here though is the ability of PE (or for that matter, even a more credible Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE)) to determine the intrinsic value. For starters, he demonstrates how PE is at best a relative measure of value – relative to other similar markets or stocks or for the more evolved, relative to its own historical averages. It is not an absolute measure of value either way - <em>“For example, is a CAPE of 20 high or low?  It isn’t either.  It’s just high or low relative to what people have paid historically.  That’s it.  If investors collectively decide that they want to pay more for the same amount of earnings going forward, then what used to be considered “high” is now normal.  As economic circumstances change, so will peoples’ willingness to pay more (or less) for stocks.”</em> Whilst Nick’s arguments are at the market level, similar arguments for the shortcomings of the use of PE as the last word on valuation can be made for single stocks as well - PE fails to capture the extent of future growth, the longevity of growth nor the volatility of growth. See our July newsletter <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=27da422c64&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D27da422c64%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEGf9WMY62jT8AcLz8qP8yBhoYJcg\">here</a> for more on the subject of longevity of growth. In a separate <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3011e56253&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3011e56253%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHO6kpgWRUPaO2omwVXGFnUHyMydQ\">blog</a> from earlier this year, Morgan Housel comes at it from the point of investing time horizon – longer the horizon less the effect of starting PE on eventual returns, beautifully bringing out the fact that PE multiples DO NOT compound but earnings do, mostly. Why then is PE the most popular valuation metric used globally? First, it is easy to compute - all you need is the current share price and either trailing or forward earnings for one year and it is simple enough for most people to understand. Whatever said and done, it does form a reasonable starting point for valuation.', 'The sCAPEgoat: Why Valuations Get More Attention Than They Deserve', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2160-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:19:24', '2019-11-05 04:19:24', '', 2160, 'https://marcellus.in/2160-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2163, 1, '2019-11-03 04:19:26', '2019-11-03 04:19:26', 'We are fond of stories which describe the ascent made by Indians from modest origins. If such stories narrate quirky success stories then so much the better. Mangesh Ghogre’s success belongs to this category. Over the past 15 years, this engineering graduate from Panvel, a suburb of Mumbai, has become one of the leading crossword constructors in the world: <em>“Mangesh Ghogre. The 39-year-old is the executive director and head of equity capital markets at investment bank Nomura India, and also the only Indian to have constructed crosswords for The New York Times (NYT)—the holy grail for puzzle enthusiasts. He has also been published in the LA Times and The Wall Street Journal, and this month is particularly special. On a quest to contribute to India’s global recognition, Ghogre has built a Gandhi-themed crossword to celebrate Bapu’s 150th birth anniversary, which the NYT has agreed to publish on October 2. Considering the paper gets about 150 crossword requests a week, this is prestigious, and no mean feat. Nor is his journey to getting here.”</em>\r\nEven more interesting than Ghogre’s achievement is how he achieved his mastery in crossword construction: <em>““For us, Indians from different parts of the country, English was not second nature,” he says. “We were never exposed to the sorts of words these exams tested, and few of us came from true English-medium schools in those days. So my hostel mates and I had an idea—we would get The Times of India every day, and its back page had a crossword. We thought solving that would be a good way to improve our vocabulary.”</em>\r\n<em>About seven or eight students, including Ghogre, began to laboriously try to solve the crosswords—and quickly realised they didn’t know a single word. “Not even one,” he stresses. “We didn’t know this then but the crossword was actually American, syndicated from the LA Times.”</em>\r\n<em>This was around 1997, when the Internet had yet to penetrate India, and even television cable had perhaps one English movie channel. “We had hardly any exposure to American culture, let alone its slang,” Ghogre recalls. “So most of the words just didn’t make sense to us.”…Ghogre began studying the solutions, which published in the paper the next day, even as his friends soon lost interest. “I was hooked to the idea of America, and learning all about it,” he tells me, fishing out a faded notebook that you can tell has seen better days. “So every day, I would write each and every clue and its solution, as I realised that crossword clues are often repeated.”</em>\r\n<em>The pocket-sized notebook—which Ghogre says he shows his kids now—is just slightly tattered but speaks of a world of passion. There in ballpoint, in no fathomable order, lie words. On the left side of one page, all of them allude to Greek and Roman gods; on another corner, a list of rivers and their tributaries.</em>\r\n<em>Slowly, Ghogre began to trace patterns. “Initially, it was small things. If a clue was plural, its answer would also be plural, so I would blindly fill out the letter ‘S’ on the grid,” he says. “But every day, I was learning. I learned Latin words, French words, Spanish words…I had never been to America, but those black-and-white squares became my window to the world.”…Ghogre was hooked, to say the least. Even after engineering, when he would commute back and forth to his MBA college, he would solve the crossword, mildly frustrated that it was still all American. “This is around 2004-2005, and we had Google by now, so I had realised that the ToI crossword was entirely syndicated from LA Times,” he says. “By that time, I started reading a lot of crossword blogs, which had huge fan following, and would analyse every day’s puzzle….By 2006, I had become obsessed with research in this area, and realised that while I could make one, it was a long shot to get it published—there’s usually a long waiting list, and the papers usually have regular creators they work with,” he says. “So I started thinking about having my own work published in 2006; and my first crossword published in the LA Times in 2010.””</em>', 'Gandhi at 150: Icon immortalised in special New York Times crossword, made by Indian', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'gandhi-at-150-icon-immortalised-in-special-new-york-times-crossword-made-by-indian', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:31:02', '2019-11-05 04:31:02', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2163', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2164, 1, '2019-11-05 04:31:02', '2019-11-05 04:31:02', 'We are fond of stories which describe the ascent made by Indians from modest origins. If such stories narrate quirky success stories then so much the better. Mangesh Ghogre’s success belongs to this category. Over the past 15 years, this engineering graduate from Panvel, a suburb of Mumbai, has become one of the leading crossword constructors in the world: <em>“Mangesh Ghogre. The 39-year-old is the executive director and head of equity capital markets at investment bank Nomura India, and also the only Indian to have constructed crosswords for The New York Times (NYT)—the holy grail for puzzle enthusiasts. He has also been published in the LA Times and The Wall Street Journal, and this month is particularly special. On a quest to contribute to India’s global recognition, Ghogre has built a Gandhi-themed crossword to celebrate Bapu’s 150th birth anniversary, which the NYT has agreed to publish on October 2. Considering the paper gets about 150 crossword requests a week, this is prestigious, and no mean feat. Nor is his journey to getting here.”</em>\r\nEven more interesting than Ghogre’s achievement is how he achieved his mastery in crossword construction: <em>““For us, Indians from different parts of the country, English was not second nature,” he says. “We were never exposed to the sorts of words these exams tested, and few of us came from true English-medium schools in those days. So my hostel mates and I had an idea—we would get The Times of India every day, and its back page had a crossword. We thought solving that would be a good way to improve our vocabulary.”</em>\r\n<em>About seven or eight students, including Ghogre, began to laboriously try to solve the crosswords—and quickly realised they didn’t know a single word. “Not even one,” he stresses. “We didn’t know this then but the crossword was actually American, syndicated from the LA Times.”</em>\r\n<em>This was around 1997, when the Internet had yet to penetrate India, and even television cable had perhaps one English movie channel. “We had hardly any exposure to American culture, let alone its slang,” Ghogre recalls. “So most of the words just didn’t make sense to us.”…Ghogre began studying the solutions, which published in the paper the next day, even as his friends soon lost interest. “I was hooked to the idea of America, and learning all about it,” he tells me, fishing out a faded notebook that you can tell has seen better days. “So every day, I would write each and every clue and its solution, as I realised that crossword clues are often repeated.”</em>\r\n<em>The pocket-sized notebook—which Ghogre says he shows his kids now—is just slightly tattered but speaks of a world of passion. There in ballpoint, in no fathomable order, lie words. On the left side of one page, all of them allude to Greek and Roman gods; on another corner, a list of rivers and their tributaries.</em>\r\n<em>Slowly, Ghogre began to trace patterns. “Initially, it was small things. If a clue was plural, its answer would also be plural, so I would blindly fill out the letter ‘S’ on the grid,” he says. “But every day, I was learning. I learned Latin words, French words, Spanish words…I had never been to America, but those black-and-white squares became my window to the world.”…Ghogre was hooked, to say the least. Even after engineering, when he would commute back and forth to his MBA college, he would solve the crossword, mildly frustrated that it was still all American. “This is around 2004-2005, and we had Google by now, so I had realised that the ToI crossword was entirely syndicated from LA Times,” he says. “By that time, I started reading a lot of crossword blogs, which had huge fan following, and would analyse every day’s puzzle….By 2006, I had become obsessed with research in this area, and realised that while I could make one, it was a long shot to get it published—there’s usually a long waiting list, and the papers usually have regular creators they work with,” he says. “So I started thinking about having my own work published in 2006; and my first crossword published in the LA Times in 2010.””</em>', 'Gandhi at 150: Icon immortalised in special New York Times crossword, made by Indian', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2163-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:31:02', '2019-11-05 04:31:02', '', 2163, 'https://marcellus.in/2163-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2165, 1, '2019-11-03 04:31:19', '2019-11-03 04:31:19', 'Earlier this week IndusInd Bank shares rose supposedly as the bank announced that it has finalised a potential candidate to replace its current CEO Ramesh Sobti who will have to retire at the age of 70yrs as per the current norms of the RBI. Similarly, Aditya Puri, the CEO of HDFC Bank, India’s largest private sector bank is set to retire next October as he turns 70yrs. There have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=84bd20f0a0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D84bd20f0a0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqxsNWH6hjp7h6EmdUf8HpawZL-g\">arguments</a> about why there should be such a hard and fast rule for retirement as long as the individual concerned is fit enough to fulfil her duties. This piece by Joona Räsänen, a bioethicist at the University of Oslo, perhaps lends some muscle to these arguments. Joona points out that individuals age biologically at different rates, both in mind and body and hence their ‘official age’ determined by their date of birth has relatively less relevance.\r\n<em>“Age change should be allowed when the following three conditions are met. First, the person is at risk of being discriminated against because of age. Second, the person’s body and mind are in better shape than would be expected based on the person’s chronological age (that is, the person is biologically younger than he is chronologically). Third, the person does not feel that his legal age is befitting.</em>\r\n<em>….Age doesn’t always refer to the time that something has existed. For example, whiskey doesn’t age in a bottle. A whiskey’s ‘age’ refers only to the time between distillation and bottling. A 21-year-old whiskey is still 21 years old even though it has been in a bottle for 10 years. So, while the whiskey has existed, chronologically, for 31 years, we say (rightly) that the whiskey is 21 years old. That is because the chronological age of the whiskey does not matter.</em>\r\n<em>Now, suppose it becomes possible to cryopreserve living human beings in ultra-low temperature for dozens of years, and by this way reduce their biological ageing rate to, say, 10 per cent of the normal rate. A person who is frozen at the age of 40 and woken up after 100 years would be biologically in as good shape as a 50-year-old. Surely the law should not treat him as being 140 years old, even though he has existed that long?</em>\r\n<em>…..How fast our physical and mental functions crumble and how fast our cells deteriorate depends on many factors, such as genetics, epigenetics and lifestyle habits such as diet and exercise. In the field of geriatric medicine, biological age is a commonly used term. While little consensus exists on how it should be determined, some estimates of biological age predict mortality more accurately than chronological age. People who have existed for an equally long time can age at varying rates biologically. So why must their legal age be the same if their biological age is so different?”</em>', 'Why older people should be allowed to change their legal age', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-older-people-should-be-allowed-to-change-their-legal-age', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:32:33', '2019-11-05 04:32:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2165', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2166, 1, '2019-11-05 04:32:33', '2019-11-05 04:32:33', 'Earlier this week IndusInd Bank shares rose supposedly as the bank announced that it has finalised a potential candidate to replace its current CEO Ramesh Sobti who will have to retire at the age of 70yrs as per the current norms of the RBI. Similarly, Aditya Puri, the CEO of HDFC Bank, India’s largest private sector bank is set to retire next October as he turns 70yrs. There have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=84bd20f0a0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D84bd20f0a0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573012533730000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEqxsNWH6hjp7h6EmdUf8HpawZL-g\">arguments</a> about why there should be such a hard and fast rule for retirement as long as the individual concerned is fit enough to fulfil her duties. This piece by Joona Räsänen, a bioethicist at the University of Oslo, perhaps lends some muscle to these arguments. Joona points out that individuals age biologically at different rates, both in mind and body and hence their ‘official age’ determined by their date of birth has relatively less relevance.\r\n<em>“Age change should be allowed when the following three conditions are met. First, the person is at risk of being discriminated against because of age. Second, the person’s body and mind are in better shape than would be expected based on the person’s chronological age (that is, the person is biologically younger than he is chronologically). Third, the person does not feel that his legal age is befitting.</em>\r\n<em>….Age doesn’t always refer to the time that something has existed. For example, whiskey doesn’t age in a bottle. A whiskey’s ‘age’ refers only to the time between distillation and bottling. A 21-year-old whiskey is still 21 years old even though it has been in a bottle for 10 years. So, while the whiskey has existed, chronologically, for 31 years, we say (rightly) that the whiskey is 21 years old. That is because the chronological age of the whiskey does not matter.</em>\r\n<em>Now, suppose it becomes possible to cryopreserve living human beings in ultra-low temperature for dozens of years, and by this way reduce their biological ageing rate to, say, 10 per cent of the normal rate. A person who is frozen at the age of 40 and woken up after 100 years would be biologically in as good shape as a 50-year-old. Surely the law should not treat him as being 140 years old, even though he has existed that long?</em>\r\n<em>…..How fast our physical and mental functions crumble and how fast our cells deteriorate depends on many factors, such as genetics, epigenetics and lifestyle habits such as diet and exercise. In the field of geriatric medicine, biological age is a commonly used term. While little consensus exists on how it should be determined, some estimates of biological age predict mortality more accurately than chronological age. People who have existed for an equally long time can age at varying rates biologically. So why must their legal age be the same if their biological age is so different?”</em>', 'Why older people should be allowed to change their legal age', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2165-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 04:32:33', '2019-11-05 04:32:33', '', 2165, 'https://marcellus.in/2165-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2167, 1, '2019-11-05 09:45:27', '2019-11-05 09:45:27', '<em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\">Published on:21 June, 2019</span></em>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>In an insightful book written 40 years ago, French philosopher, Rene Girard, explains how</strong> <strong>in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other. That in turn leads to conflict &amp; grief which in turn creates the need for scapegoats who can act as a lightning rod for our grievances. Great leaders are those who can game this construct by using religion, culture, and other people as scapegoats. </strong></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><em>“…in order to succeed one must take up an old problem, one not fashionable at the moment, and radically rethink it…there is nothing, or next to nothing, in human behaviour that is not learned, and all learning is based on imitation. If human beings suddenly cased imitating, all forms of culture would vanish. Neurologists remind us frequently that the human brain is an enormous imitation machine.” – <strong>Rene Girard</strong> in “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World” (1978) </em></span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Rene Girard, an original thinker with powerful insights</strong>\nIn 1978, Rene Girard published a remarkable book called “Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World”. The book, written in the form of a dialogue between the philosopher, Girard, and two psychologists provides deep insights into how societies evolve, compete, fight and resolve conflict. Those insights in turn have implications for how we think about countries and companies.\nGirard’s hypothesis unfolds sequentially:</span></em></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">1. Human beings have an innate desire to compete with each other and rise in the world. At the outset, this desire to compete and create new things, conquer new frontiers is a healthy thing as it spurs creativity, innovation and differentiation.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">2. Then a complication kicks in because human beings, being social animals. learn from each other and copy each other. As a result, we start coveting the same things as others. For example, in isolation I have no incentive to covet a diamond which to my mind is a worthless stone. However, if 20 people around me begin coveting diamonds (or admission for their children into a certain school or flats on Altamount Road or holiday villas in Goa), then I too am likely to covet the same. Girard calls this <strong>“mimesis”</strong> i.e. we mimic each other in our desires. Notice that it is almost certain that we will covet things which are scarce in supply; hence diamonds are more coveted than water (at least until water becomes scarce) even though water is far more useful for us than diamonds.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">3. As hoards of people start seeking the same things, competition (or mimesis as Girard calls it) intensifies. Then, in the heat of the battle, differentiation takes a back seat as all of us strive to outdo each other in acquiring these symbols of prestige. The logical escalation of this competitive battle is aggression vis a vis each other which sometimes culminates in violence.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">4. During this period of intense competition, as unhappiness increases and grievances multiply, society seeks a scapegoat. The scapegoat is deemed to be responsible for all grievances although, in reality, the grievances arise from mimesis. The scapegoat can a be a person (see next bullet) or a community (eg. Jews in Germany in the 1930s, Jews in Hungary today, Muslims in India today, Latino immigrants in Trump’s America).</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">5. Punishment is then meted out to the scapegoat so as to assuage the masses. In extreme cases, the scapegoat is murdered (eg. Jesus Christ, Julius Caesar). In less extreme cases, the scapegoat serves out a period of punishment (eg. Ram &amp; Sita going into exile, ditto for the Pandavas). Figures in positions of power &amp; influence – Kings in the ancient world, CEOs, Presidents and senior politicians today – partly exist to serve as scapegoats.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">6. Since powerful leaders realise that they can be readily sacrificed as scapegoats, they seek to institutionalise ways such that they can distribute the heat arising from society’s grievances (eg. by creating a Board of Directors or a Cabinet or a Parliament) whilst also increasing the supply of potential scapegoats (eg. the Vice Presidents of a firm, various Ministers and civil servants in a Government). A skillful leader who understands the above dynamic, moves preemptively to sacrifice a scapegoat other than herself to address society’s grievances.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">7. Religion serves an important purpose insofar it helps our leaders quell grievances with reduced conflict and/or smaller scapegoats. Similarly, in corporate life “culture” serves an important purpose as it forces people to focus on the bigger picture rather than the next promotion round. Ditto for nationalism at the level of the country.</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\"><em><span style=\"font-family: \'Georgia\',serif; color: #333333;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\nGirard’s central thesis of mimesis (i.e. in our desires, we are programmed to imitate each other) leading to conflict &amp; grief and that in turn creating the need for scapegoats is as simple as it is powerful. We can understand its implications at several levels:</span></em></p>\n\n<ol>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">At the level of the individual, we set ourselves up for a life of strife and unhappiness if we cannot have desires and goals which are different from the people around us. The more differentiated our desires and goals, the lower the chances of us spending our lives fighting empty battles for wealth, power &amp; prestige.However, if we do decide to aspire for the same things that many other people want then we have to realise that our success, our ascendancy creates the risk that we ourselves become the scapegoat.</li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">3. You can apply this thinking at the level of the company as well. The less differentiated a company’s offering/business model, the more likely that it will be engaged in intense competition with others. Such competition between similar companies is likely to result in almost all the player generating ROCE lower than their cost of capital. That in turn will trigger lobbying i.e. certain companies will push the Government to make somebody a scapegoat. A picture perfect case study of this is how the telecom industry in India has evolved over the past 20 years – all the companies essentially the same product/business model and a result none of them has ever been able generate ROCE above their cost of capital. Their almost daily efforts at lobbying in New Delhi led to the 2G scam and the arrests which followed thereafter.</li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: justify; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; word-spacing: 0px;\">4. For us to generate healthy returns for our clients we have to look for companies which are either utterly dominant in their industries with Himalayan barriers to entry around then (eg. Asian Paints, Nestle, Pidilite, Relaxo) or look for companies whose products/business models are highly differentiated and hence won’t attract competition for a considerable period of time.  You will hear more from us on the latter theme in the months to come.</li>\n</ol>\nYou can also apply Girard’s philosophy at the level of the country but that subject is best discussed on a different day and probably in a different forum.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      http://marcellus.in/resources/ </em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Marcellus: Things Hidden Since the Foundation of the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '903-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 09:45:27', '2019-11-05 09:45:27', '', 903, 'https://marcellus.in/903-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2169, 1, '2019-11-05 09:55:51', '2019-11-05 09:55:51', '', 'Businessman with many questions', 'Worried businessman with many work questions unanswered', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'businessman-with-many-questions-2', '', '', '2019-11-05 09:55:51', '2019-11-05 09:55:51', '', 726, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Asking-Difficult-Questions.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2170, 1, '2019-11-05 10:05:54', '2019-11-05 10:05:54', '', 'How You Can Do Much Better Than Warren Buffet text background wordcloud concept', 'How You Can Do Much Better Than Warren Buffet text background wordcloud concept', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-you-can-do-much-better-than-warren-buffet-text-background-wordcloud-concept', '', '', '2019-11-05 10:05:54', '2019-11-05 10:05:54', '', 1358, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Marvel-that-is-Munger-Learning-from-the-Legend.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2171, 1, '2019-11-05 11:10:13', '2019-11-05 11:10:13', '', 'Thinkers pose', 'The famous sculptures around the austrian parliament dedicated to the greek goddess pallas athena', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'thinkers-pose', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:10:13', '2019-11-05 11:10:13', '', 344, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-smartest-thinkers-on-competitive-advantage.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2172, 1, '2019-11-05 11:16:11', '2019-11-05 11:16:11', '', 'liquid dollar', 'water drops and ripples with a one hundred dollar bill as a background and reflection', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'liquid-dollar', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:16:11', '2019-11-05 11:16:11', '', 345, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Lehman-liquidity-and-Indias-exposed-financial-system.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2173, 1, '2019-11-05 11:19:13', '2019-11-05 11:19:13', '', 'successful business icons set', 'set of successful business icons on white background', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'successful-business-icons-set', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:19:13', '2019-11-05 11:19:13', '', 859, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus-Unusual-Billionaires-Flip-the-Competitive-Paradigm.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2174, 1, '2019-11-05 11:26:10', '2019-11-05 11:26:10', '', 'The rise of Indian SMEs', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-rise-of-indian-smes-2', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:26:10', '2019-11-05 11:26:10', '', 340, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/The-rise-of-Indian-SMEs.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2180, 1, '2019-11-05 11:55:13', '2019-11-05 11:55:13', 'At Marcellus, our endeavour is to find unusual promoters/companies who look at the industry they operate in very differently from others and change the entire contours of the industry in their favour. Whether it is Asian Paints (who focused on supply chain optimisation when the rest focused on product) or HDFC Bank (who focused on the liabilities franchise when others were focusing on growing assets), these unusual companies continuously elevate entry barriers around their businesses which make it difficult to surmount for competitors and allows them to consistently compound their earnings for long periods of time. In this blog, John Paul Koning talks about one such global franchise - Starbucks, the wordl\'s largest coffee chain and how it thought out of the box to raise interest free loan from its customers.\r\nJohn refers to Starbucks Annual Report to show that it has USD 1.6bn in stored value card liabilities outstanding. This represents the sum of all physical gift cards held in customer\'s wallets as well as the digital value of electronic balances held in the Starbucks Mobile App. It amounts to ~6% of all of the company\'s liabilities with zero interest payout. By launching physical gift cards and mobile app, Starbucks not only gets interest free loan from its loyal customers but have locked down future revenue as well. Starbucks can use the money in higher-yielding opportunities like funding its operations and expansion.\r\nOn the top of providing interest free loan via pre-paid cards to Starbucks, many customers forget to use the card which results in windfall gains for Starbucks.<em> “Each year Starbucks recognizes that a portion of its stored value liabilities will be permanently lost. This is known as breakage. Starbucks recognizes this amount as profit. In 2018 the company recognized $155 million in breakage, around 10% of all stored value balances. Wow! Starbucks already pays just 0% on its debts to customers, but add in breakage and that equates to a roughly -10% interest rate!”</em>\r\nNo other retailer in US has been as successful as Starbucks to raise money via gift cards. Walmart\'s annual sales are 20x larger than Starbucks sales (~$500b vs $25b). But Walmart only has $1.9 billion in unredeemed gift card balances, not much more than Starbucks. Starbucks is really good at harvesting seigniorage and it is also one of its secret sauce of success.', 'Starbucks, monetary superpower', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1695-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:55:13', '2019-11-05 11:55:13', '', 1695, 'https://marcellus.in/1695-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2176, 1, '2019-11-05 11:38:39', '2019-11-05 11:38:39', 'A decade ago Malcolm Gladwell’s bestseller “Outliers” popularised the idea of ‘10,000 hours’: <em>““Ten thousand hours is the magic number of greatness,” Gladwell wrote, drawing on anecdotes from famous success-havers (like Bill Gates and the Beatles), but also on the 1993 paper (which according to Google Scholar has been cited more than 9,800 times)...</em> <em>The original finding was simple, and compelling: The very best, expert players — those who were considered elite — were the ones who had practiced the most. The conclusions implied that deliberate practice was the most important ingredient needed to achieve elite status, more important than inborn characteristics like genetics, or personality”</em>\r\nSo does this idea hold up when subjected to rigorous testing? <em>“The journal Royal Society Open Science published a replication of an influential 1993 study on violin players at a music school in the journal Psychological Review…</em>\r\n<em>The replication — conducted by Brooke Macnamara and Megha Maitra of Case Western Reserve University — included a somewhat larger sample size and tighter study controls, and was preregistered (meaning that the scientists locked their methods and analysis plans in place before they collected any data, preventing them from retroactively changing their premise to fit their findings).</em>\r\n<em>It finds that practice does matter for performance, but not nearly as much as the original article claimed, and surprisingly, it works differently for elite performers.</em>\r\n<em>“In fact, the majority of the best violinists had accumulated less practice alone than the average amount of the good violinists,” the authors write. Practice still mattered: It accounted for 26 percent of the difference between good violinists and the less accomplished students. But the original study claimed that practice accounted for 48 percent of the difference.”</em>\r\nOther people too have found that the original ’10,000 hours’ idea overstresses the importance of practice: <em>“A 2016 meta-analysis — also co-authored by Macnamara — in Perspectives in Psychological Science looked at 33 studies on the relationship between deliberate practice and athletic achievement and found that practice just doesn’t matter that much. More precisely, the analysis found, practice can account for 18 percent of the difference in athletic success. Put another way, if we compare batting averages between two baseball players, the amount of time the players spent in the batting cage would only account for 18 percent of the reason one player’s average is better than the other.</em>\r\n<em>Which isn’t nothing. But it also means that a great many other factors — like genetics, personality, life history, etc. — makes up the majority of the difference. “Almost across the board, practice should improve one’s performance,” Macnamara told me in 2016.</em>\r\n<em>Practice matters, yes. But at the same time, it’s unlikely to bridge the gap between natural superstars and your average player.”</em>', 'The \"10,000-hour rule\" was debunked again', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1704-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:38:39', '2019-11-05 11:38:39', '', 1704, 'https://marcellus.in/1704-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2177, 1, '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Nine years ago Simon Sinek shot to fame with his incredibly popular <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9c12a24b92&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9c12a24b92%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFj48ad-ILBceFVaNITzMdxIdU1jw\">Ted Talk</a> which has now had more than 10m views on YouTube. His books <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ec05eef568&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dec05eef568%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFm73ba8ffb5vGUmOdB5nhI49Oy8w\">Start With Why</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b847ad0f43&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db847ad0f43%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELU5iNynrsjecr_atV4XREZVP89w\">Leaders Eat Last</a> have been an inspiration yet a guide for those looking to build businesses with purpose and with people who trust in you and help chart the course. In his latest book, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82f631f97d&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82f631f97d%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083439000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxwxYizVLzrJW5vTdW2A7P6B6zIA\">The Infinite Game</a>, he extends those principles for those who want to build businesses that outlast them. This blog is an excerpt from Workday’s Greg Thomas’ interview with Sinek which succinctly captures the key takeaways from the book. To set the context, Sinek cites the example of the Vietnamese war which the Americans lost despite winning all the battles. Sinek says <em>‘It’s not so much that America lost the war, it’s that America was fighting to win and the North Vietnamese were fighting for their lives. America didn’t lose, they ran out of the will or the resources to stay in the game and dropped out of it.</em>’ For all of us at Marcellus as much as anyone else hoping to build a lasting business, it is important to distinguish the battles from the war – play the infinite game.</p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>How does the concept of the infinite game mindset apply in business?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>There is no such thing as winning business—it doesn’t exist. We can have wins inside a business like you can have battles, but there’s no such thing as “winning” business. The problem is too many business owners, too many leaders don’t know the game they’re playing. They talk about being number one, being the best, beating their competition. Based upon what agreed-upon metrics? Based upon what agreed upon timeframes? There’s no such thing.</em>\r\n<em>When we play with a finite mindset in the infinite game, there are a few very consistent and predictable things that happen. Over the course of time, you will see a decline in trust, cooperation, and innovation. Eventually, your organization will run out of the will or the resources to stay in the game. We call it bankruptcy; we call it a merger and acquisition.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What factors shape an infinite mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>First, you have to have a just cause. A cause so just that you would willingly sacrifice your interest to advance that cause.</em>\r\n<em>Second, you have to have trusting teams. It means that we work with and for people such that we can raise our hands and say, “I made a mistake or I’m scared or I have troubles at home and they’re affecting my work,” without any fear of humiliation and retribution.</em>\r\n<em>Third, you have to have a worthy rival. They reveal to us our weaknesses; that’s what makes us so uncomfortable in their presence or when their names come up. Instead of getting angry about them, try to learn what it is about them that people admire and love so much, and maybe focus that energy into working on ourselves. Self-improvement. Every day. Constantly.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, you have to have the capacity for existential flexibility. This is much bigger than the daily flexibility that we need to have in our jobs. An existential flex is the capacity to make a dramatically huge strategic shift in an entirely new direction to advance our cause.</em>\r\n<em>And finally, you have to have the courage to lead. That means the courage to say, “That’s bad for business, and I’m going to do it differently.” People may call you naïve and say you don’t understand the business. You may say they don’t understand the game they’re playing. That takes tremendous courage.</em>\r\n<em>When I talk about existential flexibility, I’m talking about the ability to massively shift an entire business model because it’s the right thing to do to advance the movement. Why is it that the technology industry invented the electronic book, and not the publishing industry? Because publishing thought they were in the book business, not the reading business. Why is it that the movie industry and the television industry didn’t invent Netflix? It’s because companies can be so preoccupied with protecting the status quo they don’t make these existential flexes until they’re forced to, and then they’re playing defense the entire time.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>Regarding existential flexibility—how can companies structure their organization in a way that promotes this agile mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>In order for you to have the capacity for existential flexibility you better have a crystal clear just cause, because that’s what will direct the decisions. Also, you better work with people who love you and trust you because there’s going to be short-term pain, and you’re going to have to have people who are going to go along with you because they believe that it’s worth it.</em></p>\r\n\r\n<h4><strong>What’s your advice for folks to shift towards more of the infinite game mindset?</strong></h4>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Most of us are playing with a finite mindset and haven’t given our people any reason to build a company without us. That’s what it means to lead with an infinite mindset: That we will leave our organizations in better shape than we found them, and that we will build organizations that inspire other people to want to continue to build them without us.”</em></p>', 'Simon Sinek: To Succeed in Business, You Must Understand the Game', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1702-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '2019-11-05 11:48:24', '', 1702, 'https://marcellus.in/1702-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2178, 1, '2019-11-05 11:50:58', '2019-11-05 11:50:58', 'Diversity in the workplace is no longer a social imperative but a must for businesses who want to avoid blindspots in their understanding of the problem at hand and possible solutions for the same. Especially so in our world of investment management, it is easy for teams that have worked together for long periods of time to get caught in their echo chambers resulting in groupthink and make sub-par investment decisions. This piece in the BBC by Matthew Syed takes the example of the CIA – how the homogeneity at the CIA created blindspots which perhaps a diverse team of analysts could have avoided and potentially prevented 9/11.\r\n<em>“….there is no doubt they hired exceptional people.  \"The two major exams were a SAT-style test to probe a candidate\'s intelligence and a psychological profile to examine their mental state,\" says a CIA veteran. \"The tests filtered out anyone who was not stellar on both tests. In the year I applied, they accepted one candidate for every 20,000 applicants. When the CIA talked about hiring the best, they were bang on the money .\"</em>\r\n<em>And yet most of these recruits also happened to look very similar - white, male, Anglo-Saxon, Protestant Americans.</em>\r\n<em>This is a common phenomenon in recruiting, sometimes called \"homophily\": people tend to hire people who think (and often look) like themselves. It is validating to be surrounded by people who share one\'s perspectives and beliefs. Indeed, brain scans suggest that when others reflect our own thoughts back to us, it stimulates the pleasure centres of our brains.</em>\r\n<em>…..Why did this homogeneity matter? If you are hiring a relay team, don\'t you just want the fastest runners? Why would it matter if they are the same colour, gender, social class, etc?</em>\r\n<em>Yet this logic, while sound for simple tasks like running, flips for complex tasks like intelligence. Why? Because when a problem is complex, no one person has all the answers. We all have blind spots, gaps in our understanding.</em>\r\n<em>This means, in turn, that if you bring a group of people who share similar perspectives and backgrounds, they are liable to share the same blind spots. And this means that far from challenging and addressing these blind spots, they are likely to be reinforced.</em>\r\n<em>….Getting the right mix of diversity in human groups isn\'t easy. There is a science to putting together the right minds, with perspectives that challenge, augment, diverge and cross-pollinate rather than parrot, corroborate and restrict. This is set to become a key source of competitive advantage for organisations, not to mention security agencies. This is how wholes become more than the sum of their parts. “</em>', 'The CIA, 9/11 and collective blindness', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1700-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:50:58', '2019-11-05 11:50:58', '', 1700, 'https://marcellus.in/1700-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2179, 1, '2019-11-05 11:52:32', '2019-11-05 11:52:32', 'The old fashioned merchant – who was almost crushed in the 20<sup>th</sup> century - is staging a comeback, not in the real world, but on the internet. There are two ways that merchants can ride on the internet. First up is Amazon: <em>“Many of today’s e-merchants sell in a digital marketplace, akin to a medieval town square. That mostly means Amazon, which handles almost half of American online sales on behalf of 1.9m suppliers. Its reputation for providing support to sellers is iffy. But it compensates by offering them an endless stream of customers, including 100m Prime subscribers who buy frequently and enjoy free, speedy delivery.”</em>\r\nSecondly, merchants can strike out on their own: <em>“Some online retailers, however, prefer to strike out on their own, like the craftsmen of old. They are developing “microbrands” they peddle themselves, handling payment, delivery and other customer relationships. But they can use assistance, of the sort that the guilds of yore offered their predecessors. Enter Shopify, a Canadian software firm whose value has rocketed by 180% in the past year, to $45bn, eclipsing eBay, a better-known veteran of e-commerce…Amazon excels at making consumers cheerful. Shopify, by contrast, is focused squarely on its merchants.”</em>\r\nShopify’s accidental birth explains why it has became a valuable route-to-market for merchants who are wary of Amazon: <em>“Its boss, Tobi Lütke, epitomised the new breed of digital merchants when he set out, with friends, to build an online snowboard shop, Snowdevil, in 2004. At the time, selling online meant one of a few things. You could spend a small fortune, either on developing your own sales channel or paying someone like IBM to build one for you, which only deep-pocketed firms could afford. Alternatively, you could rely on Amazon, sacrifice part of your margins and, with your product being delivered in Amazon’s boxes, cede control over your relations with the customer. Worse still, you risked being elbowed out if it created its own version of your wares….</em>\r\n<em>Mr Lütke built his own platform. Within two years he had switched from selling snowboards to software. In the process Shopify glided stealthily into the e-commerce big leagues without going head to head with Amazon, as Walmart, Target and other big retailers have done, sometimes with soul-sapping results. Its success has put further strain on bricks-and-mortar shops, which were already dying in droves.</em>\r\n<em>Unlike Amazon, Shopify keeps out of the relationship between merchants and their customers. To the buyers, it is invisible. To the sellers, who flogged $41bn-worth of stuff on its platform last year, it can be indispensable. They range from fashionistas of the Kardashian clan, mattress sellers, gym-wear specialists and Canadian marijuana growers to venerable brands such as Lay’s potato chips (owned by PepsiCo). Some have grown with Shopify from scratch to selling billions of dollars of merchandise.”</em>\r\nNot only has Shopify grown fast (it is America’s third-largest online retailer by volume of goods sold after Amazon and eBay), it has also built formidable competitive advantages: <em>“It generates high margins and recurring revenue from merchants, who pay a monthly fee for the software, based on their sales. On top of that, Shopify collects fees for helping run each stage of their e-commerce business, from designing an online store and advertising on social-media sites such as Instagram to processing payments and arranging logistics. This is the fastest-growing part of its business, though it is less profitable than selling software subscriptions.”</em>', 'Shopify and the return of the merchant class', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1698-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:52:32', '2019-11-05 11:52:32', '', 1698, 'https://marcellus.in/1698-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2181, 1, '2019-11-05 11:57:46', '2019-11-05 11:57:46', 'A lively account of her first visit to the ‘Burning Man’ by Hannah Murphy this year, a year when Ray Dalio, the iconic hedge fund manager at Bridgewater Associates, proudly endorsed the event on social media as a place with great vibe and amazing creativity. Yet Hannah draws us to the ‘palpable tension that the festival aspires to be and its reality’ akin to the growing inequalities in society today.\r\n<em>“…the annual bacchanal — where artists and hedonists push the boundaries of their creativity with a brief return to the Sixties ideals of free love and drugs, against a backdrop of thumping electronic music — has become a choice destination for moneyed Silicon Valley executives (alumni include Elon Musk and Larry Page)……(I)         text close family and friends to explain that they will not be able to contact me — at all — for the next five days. There will be no internet or phone signal in this 70,000-strong makeshift tent city. It lends new meaning to the term escapism.</em>\r\n<em>…Commerce is prohibited on the site, in favour of a “gifting economy” in which each camp must “give back” to the desert “playa”, in the form of food, drink or entertainment. Some, such as the “ShamanDome”, offer spiritual fixes; others, intellectual rigour (talks on data privacy). You can guess the selling point of the infamous Orgy Dome…..</em>\r\n<em>But it is a radical expense — close to $500 per ticket including taxes, plus travel (about $150), camp fees ($300), and hiring a bike to get around the sprawling site ($175).The camp system itself also allows for jarring hierarchy ….</em>\r\n<em>…the past few years have seen the emergence of so-called “plug-and-play” camps that promise luxury bed and board without the need to lift a finger; the all-inclusive fees often run into the thousands of dollars. At night-time dance parties, I watch as these blow-ins wiggle atop the “art cars” — mutant vehicles that the richest camps revamp with lights, lasers and mega sound systems — with an entourage in tow snapping pictures.</em>\r\n<em>The clash of cultures is apparent everywhere. In my first few weeks in San Francisco, I met a start-up founder at the Battery, the city’s Soho House for VCs, who proudly told me that he had helped to crowdfund $5m to turn a Boeing 747 aircraft hangar into “the biggest party bus ever”. His vision came to pass. But during the week, I learn of a plan to storm the plane, which has apparently been rather exclusive in its door policy. “Let’s show everyone the true meaning of ‘Radical Inclusion’,” the organisers threatened in a post on Facebook.“They burn the man today; but they become the man again tomorrow,” one festivalgoer complains. Coming by way of San Francisco, where the tech boom has led to widening income inequality, such resentment is sadly familiar….</em>\r\n<em>… Despite our shared distaste for the influencers’ incursions into the festival, we are now busily uploading our snaps of the week to social media. And we are not alone. The hashtag #burningman has more than a million posts on Instagram, with #burnerbabes and #burnerettes not far behind. “Most of the people at Burning Man want to give rather than take, and live rather than ‘gram,” one idealistic campmate says when I ask him to sum up the week.”</em>', 'Burning Man diary: sticking it to the Man with Ray Dalio', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1693-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 11:57:46', '2019-11-05 11:57:46', '', 1693, 'https://marcellus.in/1693-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2182, 1, '2019-11-05 12:00:25', '2019-11-05 12:00:25', 'Thomas Middlehoff, the former boss of Bertelsmann, has written a book called “Guilty”. Mr Middlehoff who was jailed for three years for tax evasion and breach of trust feels that <em>“he committed the seven deadly sins in a biblical sense, he says, which is why he feels he deserved time behind bars and the loss of his fortune, reputation, health and marriage. He wants the account of his failures to serve as a cautionary tale for businesspeople in Germany and beyond.”</em>\r\nThe Economist says that Mr Middlehoff was a very unusual German success story: <em>“He climbed to the top of Bertelsmann through a combination of hard work, unwavering belief in his instincts, showmanship and an Anglo-Saxon appetite for risk. Perhaps his biggest coup was a partnership with Steve Case, who at the time was the virtually unknown boss of a struggling startup called America Online. Then known as “Big T”, Mr Middelhoff made a fortune for Bertelsmann when he sold its stake in aol for close to €7bn ($6.7bn) in 2000, just before the dotcom bubble burst.”</em>\r\nSo how did this superstar fall from grace? <em>“Greed, he says, led him to invest in dodgy real-estate funds and tax-avoidance schemes. In 2002 he was forced out of Bertelsmann after clashing with the Mohn family, who own the company, over his plans to take the firm public. Eager for a second act as a German business tycoon, in 2005 he took the helm of KarstadtQuelle, which later became Arcandor, then Germany’s biggest retailer. His efforts to turn around that ailing company led to his humiliating decline. He sold Arcandor’s property portfolio for €4.5bn but saddled its department stores with high rents…By June the retailer had collapsed.</em>\r\n<em>That is when prosecutors began investigating Mr Middelhoff’s conduct at the company. They uncovered his use of Arcandor aircraft for private purposes and company cash to part-finance a book honouring his mentor at Bertelsmann. In 2014 a court in Essen found him guilty. He was arrested in the courtroom in front of his family. A year later he declared personal bankruptcy.”</em>\r\nMr Middelhoff’s tale of hubris should resonate in India’s boardrooms.', 'Thomas Middelhoff reflects on failure in German business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1690-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:00:25', '2019-11-05 12:00:25', '', 1690, 'https://marcellus.in/1690-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2183, 1, '2019-11-05 12:09:39', '2019-11-05 12:09:39', 'Thomas Middlehoff, the former boss of Bertelsmann, has written a book called “Guilty”. Mr Middlehoff who was jailed for three years for tax evasion and breach of trust feels that <em>“he committed the seven deadly sins in a biblical sense, he says, which is why he feels he deserved time behind bars and the loss of his fortune, reputation, health and marriage. He wants the account of his failures to serve as a cautionary tale for businesspeople in Germany and beyond.”</em>\r\nThe Economist says that Mr Middlehoff was a very unusual German success story: <em>“He climbed to the top of Bertelsmann through a combination of hard work, unwavering belief in his instincts, showmanship and an Anglo-Saxon appetite for risk. Perhaps his biggest coup was a partnership with Steve Case, who at the time was the virtually unknown boss of a struggling startup called America Online. Then known as “Big T”, Mr Middelhoff made a fortune for Bertelsmann when he sold its stake in aol for close to €7bn ($6.7bn) in 2000, just before the dotcom bubble burst.”</em>\r\nSo how did this superstar fall from grace? <em>“Greed, he says, led him to invest in dodgy real-estate funds and tax-avoidance schemes. In 2002 he was forced out of Bertelsmann after clashing with the Mohn family, who own the company, over his plans to take the firm public. Eager for a second act as a German business tycoon, in 2005 he took the helm of KarstadtQuelle, which later became Arcandor, then Germany’s biggest retailer. His efforts to turn around that ailing company led to his humiliating decline. He sold Arcandor’s property portfolio for €4.5bn but saddled its department stores with high rents…By June the retailer had collapsed.</em>\r\n<em>That is when prosecutors began investigating Mr Middelhoff’s conduct at the company. They uncovered his use of Arcandor aircraft for private purposes and company cash to part-finance a book honouring his mentor at Bertelsmann. In 2014 a court in Essen found him guilty. He was arrested in the courtroom in front of his family. A year later he declared personal bankruptcy.”</em>\r\nMr Middelhoff’s tale of hubris should resonate in India’s boardrooms.', 'Thomas Middelhoff reflects on failure in German business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1690-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:09:39', '2019-11-05 12:09:39', '', 1690, 'https://marcellus.in/1690-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2184, 1, '2019-11-05 12:12:48', '2019-11-05 12:12:48', 'The emergence of super bugs or germs that are resistant to most known anti-biotics has created a quandary among medical professionals dealing with cancer patients. Chemotherapy, the most common cancer treatment has evolved over the years not just in terms of efficacy but also in improving post treatment quality of life through reduced side effects. However, it does leave patients exposed to possibility of getting their bloodstreams infected by bugs which break through the walls of the digestive tract weakened by chemotherapy. The author notes that this problem is particularly acute in a place like India where twin drivers: a) careless and rampant over use of anti-biotics has led to mutant drug-resistant bacteria; b) poor hygiene and sanitation create a conducive environment for such bacteria to develop and spread.\r\n<em>Worldwide, at least 700,000 people die annually from drug-resistant infections. That number will balloon to 10 million a year by 2050 and will cost more than $100 trillion in lost economic output without corrective actions, according to a U.K. government study, which estimates that by midcentury more people will die from superbug infections than from cancer and diabetes combined.</em>\r\n<em>Germs acquired through ingesting contaminated food and water become part of the normal gut microbiome, but they can turn deadly if they escape the bowel and infect the urinary tract, blood, and other tissues. Chemotherapy is often the culprit, allowing that to happen by weakening the lining of the digestive tract.</em>\r\n<em>Almost two-thirds of cancer patients with a carbapenem-resistant infection are dead within four weeks, vs. a 28-day mortality rate of 38% in patients whose infections are curable, Ghafur and colleagues reported in 2014. Ghafur typically tries a last-resort antibiotic called colistin with the most stubborn antibiotic-resistant strains. Increasingly, that’s failing too, resulting in pan-drug-resistant infections. In the past, says Ghafur, “maybe once in six months, once a year I got this kind of bacteria—resistant to everything.” Now it’s occurring every other week.</em>\r\n<em>Ghafur, one of India’s fiercest anti-superbug campaigners, says the cancer patients he sees dying from drug-resistant bacterial infections represent a so-called post-antibiotic era in which something as simple as a scratched knee can kill. “If you’re talking about the post-antibiotic era, you first see that in cancer patients,” he says. “They are expecting us to cure their cancer with chemotherapy—and there are wonderful chemotherapy drugs—and then we explain it to the family: Yes, your cancer will be controlled, but then you may die of infection.”</em>', 'Superbugs Deadlier Than Cancer Put Chemotherapy Into Question', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1687-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:12:48', '2019-11-05 12:12:48', '', 1687, 'https://marcellus.in/1687-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2185, 1, '2019-11-05 12:14:27', '2019-11-05 12:14:27', 'In the wake of growing concerns from the rise of the ‘Big corporate’, two weeks ago, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82d45cbd24&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D82d45cbd24%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTg5qZ2bZ3HTIqqM42EWARuDVJSg\">an American corporate lobby comprised of CEOs</a> of some of the largest corporates pledged to look beyond just shareholder interests and instead become inclusive in terms of taking care of customers, employees, vendors and the society at large. Perhaps, an appropriate time for William Dalrymple, the Scottish historian settled in India to come up with his new book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=37b683e7f2&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D37b683e7f2%26e%3Dd4bc0ec9d7&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1569039083500000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEw3MZZjTsBTZFgAxVEbs_a1rMngA\">‘The Anarchy’</a> which tracks the evolution of the East India Company into a giant and ruthless corporation. In this leading piece in the FT, Dalrymple gives a sense of how big and influential really was the world’s first ‘big corporate’ and puts that in the context of today’s monopolistic behemoths such as Google, Amazon, Facebook, etc. The East India Company’s influence was far and wide including triggering the American War of Independence on the back of the Boston Tea Party where the company’s tea trade from China to the west got on the wrong side of the patriots. Dalrymple clarifies that more than colonialism the British rule of the Indian sub-continent was a result of unbridled profit motives of the EIC, a company effectively set up by a bunch of traders to look beyond the European continent as Britain got sidelined by the Protestant-Catholic rift with mainland Europe (a Brexit of sorts, says John Gapper). Indeed the company got so powerful in the context of the nation state itself that it ended up morphing into a colonial rule. Dalrymple notes that at some stage the private security force of the company was twice the size of the British army. Dalrymple concludes that whilst today’s ‘Big Corporates’ may not need armies of their own, their influence on governments and hence legislations will in some ways resemble the EIC.\r\n\r\n<em>“We still talk about the British conquering India, but that phrase disguises a more sinister reality. For it was not the British government that began seizing chunks of India in the mid-18th century, but a dangerously unregulated private company headquartered in one small office, five windows wide, in London, and managed in India by a violent, ruthless and mentally unstable corporate predator — Robert Clive. India’s transition to colonialism, in other words, took place under a for-profit corporation, which existed entirely for the purpose of enriching its investors.</em>\r\n<em>…By the beginning of the 19th century, the East India Company had become, as one of its directors admitted, “an empire within an empire”, with the power to make war or peace anywhere in the east. The EIC had created a vast and sophisticated administration and civil service in India, and built much of London’s Docklands. Its annual spending in Britain — around £8.5m — equalled about a quarter of total British government annual expenditure. No wonder the Company now referred to itself as “the grandest society of merchants in the Universe”. Its private armies were larger than those of almost all nation-states and its power encircled the globe; indeed, its shares were a kind of global reserve currency. As the parliamentarian Edmund Burke wrote: “The Constitution of the Company began in commerce and ended in Empire.”…</em>\r\n<em>….When people voice fears today about the power of corporations and the way global companies can find ways around the laws and the legislatures of individual nation-states, it is no accident that they sound like 18th-century commentators such as Horace Walpole, who decried the way that EIC wealth had corrupted parliament: “What is England now?” he asked, but “a sink of Indian wealth, filled by nabobs [with] . . . a Senate sold and despised.”…”</em>', 'Lessons for Capitalism from the East India Company', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1685-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:14:27', '2019-11-05 12:14:27', '', 1685, 'https://marcellus.in/1685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2186, 1, '2019-11-05 12:17:11', '2019-11-05 12:17:11', 'Richard Seymour has written a superb essay on the destructive powers of social media networks. Such is the power of the “network effects” and such is attraction of the approbation of others that millions of us are spending hours each day writing on social media. In return what are we getting: <em>“In a form of mass casualisation, writers no longer expect to be paid or given employment contracts. What do the platforms offer us, in lieu of a wage? What gets us hooked? Approval, attention, retweets, shares and likes.”</em>\r\nBut beyond network effects and our desire for social approval, why exactly are social media platforms like Twitter so powerful? <em>“The Twittering Machine thrives on its speed, informality and interactivity. The protocols of Twitter itself, for example, encourage people to post quickly and often. The feed has an extremely rapid turnover, so that anything posted will, unless it “goes viral”, tend to be quickly forgotten by most followers. The system of followers, @ing and threading encourages sprawling conversations to develop from initial tweets, favouring constant interaction. This is what people like about it, what makes it engaging: it is like texting, but in a public, collective context.”</em>\r\nFurthermore, as with financial options, Twitter thrives on chaos. <em>“The regular sweet spot sought after is a brief period of ecstatic collective frenzy around any given topic. It doesn’t particularly matter to the platforms what the frenzy is about: the point is to generate data, one of the most profitable raw materials yet discovered. As in the financial markets, volatility adds value. The more chaos, the better.”</em>\r\nThe addiction that social media platforms generate, says the author, is akin to a gambler’s craving for the next roll of the dice. <em>“Every gambler trusts in a few abstract symbols – the dots on a dice, numerals, suits, red or black, the graphemes on a fruit machine – to tell them who they are. In most cases, the answer is brutal and swift: you are a loser and you are going home with nothing. The true gambler takes a perverse joy in anteing up, putting their whole being at stake. On social media, you scratch out a few words, a few symbols, and press send, rolling the dice. The internet will tell you who you are and what your destiny is through arithmetic likes, shares and comments.”</em>\r\nIn the casino the addicts gamble for money. On social media, the addicts vie with each other for attention. <em>“Going viral, or trending, is the equivalent of a windfall. But sometimes, winning is the worst thing that can happen. The temperate climate of likes and approval is apt to break, lightning-quick, into sudden storms of fury and disapproval.”</em>\r\nAs we get more entrenched in our make believe world of social media, it gets increasingly hard to maintain a real sense of perspective about the outside world: <em>“The sense of dropping out of time is common to many addictions. As one former gambling addict puts it: “All I can remember is living in a trance for four years.” Schüll calls it the “machine zone”, where ordinary reality is “suspended in the mechanical rhythm of a repeating process”. For many addicts, the idea of facing the normal flow of time is unbearably depressing. Marc Lewis, a neuroscientist and former heroin addict, describes how even after kicking the drug, he couldn’t face “a day without a change of state”.</em>\r\n<em>The Twittering Machine, as a wholly designed operant conditioning chamber, needs none of the expedients of the casino or opium den. The user has already dropped out of work, a boring lunch or an anxious social situation to enter into a different, timeless zone…</em>\r\n<em>The experience of platform users, on the other hand, is organised in a trance-like flow. The user is plunged into a stream of real-time information and disciplined to stay constantly ahead of it. Twitter highlights not the time and date of posts, but their age and thus currency: 4m, or 12h, as the case may be.</em>\r\n<em>The ensuing trance-like state, according to the digital theorist David Berry, is remarkably similar to what in early stock markets was called the “ticker trance”. Financial speculators would become absorbed in watching the signals conveyed on stock market ticker tape, vigilant to every minute variation in a real-time flow.”</em>\r\nThe author then makes a really interesting point regarding how social media is the real<strong> convergence of financial markets and tech:</strong> <em>“And there is a logical convergence between financialisation and tech. The financial sector is the most computerised sector of capitalism, and the use of software for trading has resulted in numerous efforts to “game the system” – as in May 2010, when a trader’s use of algorithms to repeatedly spoof bets against the market some 19,000 times briefly caused a trillion-dollar crash.”</em>\r\nLike alcoholism and like gambling, social media is destroying careers, families and lives: <em>“The complaints are almost always the same: users end up constantly distracted, unproductive, anxious, needy and depressed – yet also curiously susceptible to advertising. Patrick Garratt wrote of his social media addiction causing a “desperate, hollow pressure of waste” in his working life as a journalist. Social-media addiction has been linked, repeatedly, to increased depression: interaction with the platforms correlates with a major decline in mental health, while increased screen time (or “time on device”) may be contributing to a recent surge in teen suicides.”</em>', 'The machine always wins: what drives our addiction to social media', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1682-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:17:11', '2019-11-05 12:17:11', '', 1682, 'https://marcellus.in/1682-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2187, 1, '2019-11-05 12:19:58', '2019-11-05 12:19:58', 'Last Sunday was yet another super Sunday for sport. India got its latest world champion in PV Sindhu who finally came won the World Badminton Championships after agonisingly coming second best in the previous two editions. Then Ben Stokes single-handedly pulled off a miraculous victory to keep the English in contention for the Ashes. Finally, in less dramatic fashion but yet very meaningful, the Indian fast bowlers demolished the West Indies batting line up through sheer pace as if the world had come a full circle from the times that Caribbean pacers terrorised the cricketing world from the 60’s to the 90’s. All stories of glory and will surely be remembered years down the line. However, this piece by Rohit Brijnath is about those sportspersons who will be forgotten but have also attained glory in their own right. Right after super Sunday, a young Indian – Sumit Nagal was playing his first Grand Slam at the US Open, taking on Roger Federer in the first round. He managed to grab a set and an encouraging comment from the legend “….(Sumit) has a solid future”. Whether Nagal goes on to achieve greater feats or not, Brijnath’s piece is an ode to all those sportspersons who have contributed to sport without getting the same adulation as the stars yet have done so for the sheer love of sport.\r\n<em>“….we were talking about the forgotten, the unheralded athletes who fill the lanes and the ranking tables, the luckless and the dreamers, the so-close and the will-be, all mainly housed on the outskirts of fame.</em>\r\n<em>Like Benjamin Pietri, 23, ranked No.1,079 on the ATP Tour, earnings $2,904 (around ₹2.07 lakh) this year, no picture available as if he’s faceless, accompanied by the words: “Unfortunately, we do not currently have any bio information for this player.\"</em>\r\n<em>Some athletes are forever almost-theres. But many do get there, to a place precious to them, to a first round in a Grand Slam, into a Ranji Trophy team, into an Olympics, earning a single national cap. Places that watchers tend to dismiss, places that people are snobbish about—“kitna Test khela?\" (How many Test matches has he played?) is Indian sport’s most unpleasant phrase—but places that are so hard to get to.</em>\r\n<em>…..And these athletes, on the margins looking in, whom you see walking behind the champion who is being interviewed on camera, whom no one stops for a selfie, are in fact the best interviewees, because they are shorn of ego, because they have a story and no one’s ever asked it.</em>\r\n<em>And it’s an education to hang out with them, at practice, around changing rooms. One of the many reasons I admire journalist Sharda Ugra’s work is because she spent so much time just listening to Ranji Trophy players, spending long days in a time before mobile phones, understanding through them the viscera of sport, the small triumphs, the dusty dreams, the workings of the game.</em>\r\n<em>Who sustains sport? In this over-worshipping time, we would say Serena Williams, Lionel Messi, Virat Kohli. But, really, it’s these people, the ones who contest the heats, who want one chance to play Federer, who share rooms on tour and load up on free breakfasts, who never ride on private jets but still don’t quit, who might be the pride of their small town because no one from there ever went so far, who, well, love sport even if it doesn’t always love them back.</em>\r\n<em>Last year at the Asian Games, I wrote about Aishath Sausan, a cheerful mother from the Maldives who came last in the 200m backstroke but set a new national record. I emailed her this week and she, 31, told me she still trains in an ocean pool in the Maldives where eels appear, and sometimes garbage, because all she wants, just one time, is to get to the Olympics.</em>\r\n<em>She told me she had been swimming since she was 9 and in a life of studies, marriage, two children and a five-year break, had never got to a Games. “So,\" she wrote about the Tokyo Olympics next year, “(I’m) really, really hoping that I could achieve my biggest dream this time.\" Even in the flat, unfeeling typeface of an email you can feel her desperation.</em>\r\n<em>This August, Sausan went to the World Championships and finished 44th out of 48 competitors in the 50m backstroke, but she set another national record. An irrelevant statistic to you, but everything to her. When it mattered, she had found her best.”</em>', 'Athletes on the outskirts of fame', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1655-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:19:58', '2019-11-05 12:19:58', '', 1655, 'https://marcellus.in/1655-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2188, 1, '2019-11-05 12:22:13', '2019-11-05 12:22:13', 'Most of the press around autonomous vehicles focuses on cars and yet it is in trucking that the most commercially viable advances in autonomous driving are being made. Last week we learnt that: <em>“The self-driving freight truck startup TuSimple has been carrying mail across the state of Arizona for several weeks.</em>\r\n<em>UPS announced on Thursday that its venture capital arm has made a minority investment in TuSimple. The announcement also revealed that since May TuSimple autonomous trucks have been hauling UPS loads on a 115-mile route between Phoenix and Tucson.”</em>\r\nIn parallel, UPS and TuSimple have also announced <em>“a two-week pilot program to deliver mail between Phoenix and Dallas, a 1,000 mile trip.”</em>\r\nIf successful, autonomous trucks could cut the cost of moving cargo in America: <em>“TuSimple claims it can cut the average cost of shipping in a tractor-trailer by 30 percent.”</em>', 'UPS Has Been Delivering Cargo in Self-Driving Trucks for Months And No One Knew', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1653-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:22:13', '2019-11-05 12:22:13', '', 1653, 'https://marcellus.in/1653-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2189, 1, '2019-11-05 12:24:54', '2019-11-05 12:24:54', 'My colleagues Saurabh Mukherjea and Rakshit Ranjan co-authored a book titled <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fa36e1ead6&amp;e=5648501957\">Coffee Can Investing</a> with a subtitle - “The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth”. In this blog, Justin Carbonneau of Validea brings out a similar  essence from the book <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa3b769ab5&amp;e=5648501957\">High Returns from Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox</a></em>, authored by Robeco fund managers Pim van Vliet and Jan de Koning, whose research with long term data support highlights this paradox in the stock market. Popular belief is that investors seek an appropriate reward for the risk they are willing to take and hence to generate higher returns one needs to take higher risk. The authors demonstrate that indeed it is possible to generate higher returns with low volatility. Van Vliet’s multi-factor model overlays a momentum and quality factor over the original low volatility universe.\r\nIn this month’s <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=caedffc980&amp;e=5648501957\">newsletter</a>, we explain why Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio has been resilient through the recent bout of market weakness (the portfolio is up 5.8% in August vs Nifty’s -0.9% and is up 10.6% in the past six months vs Nifty’s 2.1%) – our portfolio’s weighted avg earnings grew 17% vs Nifty’s 1.8%. It also explains how our portfolio companies’ manage to sustain these earnings despite the macro slowdown – because these companies produce goods and services which are essential to the common man. That in effect is one of three parts to our investment philosophy of reducing volatility: First, look for companies with clean accounting and governance – hence avoid fraud risk. Second, prefer companies which make essential products, thereby reducing demand risk. Finally, look for deep competitive moats, which alleviate risks to profitability.\r\n<em>“Van Vliet developed a factor-based model that combines three relatively simple investment criteria – volatility, momentum and net buyback yield. This is what he calls a “conservative formula” for stock selection.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Volatility</strong></em><em>: The investable universe (the 1,000 largest companies by market cap) is separated into two groups. The 500 least volatile stocks are eligible for inclusion in the model, while the 500 most volatile are ineligible. Volatility is define by the 3 year standard deviation of returns for each security in the universe.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Momentum</strong></em><em>: Stocks with higher momentum are rewarded in the model. Academic studies have shown momentum tends to persist in the intermediate term, but mean revert in the short-term and long-term. As a result, stocks are ranked based on their one year momentum, excluding the most recent month.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Net Payout Yield: </strong></em><em>Net payout yield, which is the sum of the dividend yield and the share buyback yield, partly capture the value and quality premium in stocks. The higher the net payout yield the better.</em>\r\n<em>The stocks that passed the initial volatility test are ranked by the other two factors, and then a combined rank is calculated. The stocks with the best combination of momentum and net payout yield get the highest scores.</em>\r\n<em>…From 1929 to 2016, the top 100 conservative stocks selected using the factors mentioned above produced an annualized return of 15.1% compared to 9.3% for the overall market and 2.1% for the most speculative stock cohort. The conservative and speculative portfolios were made up of the 100 top ranked stocks, rebalanced quarterly. The outperformance is not just limited to the US market, as the conservative formula also produced alpha generating results in different markets, including Europe, Japan and Emerging markets.”</em>', 'Long Term Compounding Using Low Volatility & Other Fundamental Factors', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1651-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:24:54', '2019-11-05 12:24:54', '', 1651, 'https://marcellus.in/1651-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2190, 1, '2019-11-05 12:41:45', '2019-11-05 12:41:45', 'In his refreshingly positive book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=432f5cd8d5&amp;e=5648501957\">Factfulness</a>, Dr Hans Rosling talked about how people across the world are living longer with average life expectancy globally now at 72yrs rising up form 60yrs in 1973. This trend was true for the United States as well until recently when it has started to decline. It turns out that Dr Rosling like most of us was also misled by statistical averages which masked the long declining trend of life expectancy for the American poor. <em>“Perhaps the starkest measure of the failure of our economic policies is that the average American’s life expectancy is in decline, as inequalities of wealth have become inequalities of health. Life expectancy rose for the wealthiest 20 percent of Americans between 1980 and 2010. Over the same three decades, life expectancy declined for the poorest 20 percent of Americans. Shockingly, the difference in average life expectancy between poor and wealthy women widened from 3.9 years to 13.6 years” </em>says Binyamin Appelbaum in this essay which is adapted from this forthcoming book “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aeb9abd107&amp;e=5648501957\">The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets and the Fracture of Society</a>”. Appelbaum attributes the rise in income inequalities now reflecting in rather diverging trends in health to the rise in economists\' role in policymaking over the past five decades, especially their  willful indifference towards distribution of prosperity. He notes that until 1968 economists had little role in policymaking.\r\n<em>“In the early 1950s, a young economist named Paul Volcker worked as a human calculator in an office deep inside the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He crunched numbers for the people who made decisions, and he told his wife that he saw little chance of ever moving up. The central bank’s leadership included bankers, lawyers and an Iowa hog farmer, but not a single economist. The Fed’s chairman, a former stockbroker named William McChesney Martin, once told a visitor that he kept a small staff of economists in the basement of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. They were in the building, he said, because they asked good questions. They were in the basement because “they don’t know their own limitations.”</em>\r\n<em>Martin’s distaste for economists was widely shared among the midcentury American elite. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt dismissed John Maynard Keynes, the most important economist of his generation, as an impractical “mathematician.” President Eisenhower, in his farewell address, urged Americans to keep technocrats from power. Congress rarely consulted economists; regulatory agencies were led and staffed by lawyers; courts wrote off economic evidence as irrelevant.”</em>\r\nFrom 1969, they began to influence policy making, first with rationalising the administration of policy and then to setting policy goals as well. Much of it was towards the development of free markets driving deregulation across industries and reduction in the role of the government. But it is their lack of appreciation of the threats to inequality that Appelbaum laments.\r\n\r\n<em>“Although nature tends toward entropy, they (economists) shared a confidence that markets tend toward equilibrium. They agreed that the primary goal of economic policy was to increase the dollar value of the nation’s output. And they had little patience for efforts to limit inequality. Charles L. Schultze, the chairman of Mr. Carter’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in the early 1980s that economists should fight for efficient policies “even when the result is significant income losses for particular groups — which it almost always is.” A generation later, in 2004, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas warned against any revival of efforts to reduce inequality. “Of the tendencies that are harmful to sound economics, the most seductive, and in my opinion the most poisonous, is to focus on questions of distribution.”...</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….The market economy remains one of humankind’s most awesome inventions, a powerful machine for the creation of wealth. But the measure of a society is the quality of life throughout the pyramid, not just at the top, and a growing body of research shows that those born at the bottom today have less chance than in earlier generations to achieve prosperity or to contribute to society’s general welfare — even if they are rich by historical standards.</em>\r\n<em>This is not just bad for those who suffer, although surely that is bad enough. It is bad for affluent Americans, too. When wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few, studies show, total consumption declines and investment lags. Corporations and wealthy households increasingly resemble Scrooge McDuck, sitting on piles of money they can’t use productively.</em>\r\n<em>Willful indifference to the distribution of prosperity over the last half century is an important reason the very survival of liberal democracy is now being tested by nationalist demagogues. I have no special insight into how long the rope can hold, or how much weight it can bear. But I know our shared bonds will last longer if we can find ways to reduce the strain”</em>', 'Blame Economists for the Mess We’re In', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1649-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-05 12:41:45', '2019-11-05 12:41:45', '', 1649, 'https://marcellus.in/1649-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2192, 1, '2019-11-06 06:13:15', '2019-11-06 06:13:15', '', 'Man working on laptop while holding up pantone palette, colormap from behind angle', 'Man working on laptop while holding up pantone palette, colormap from behind angle. Concept graphic designer, renovation, color samples, interior design, printing industry', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'man-working-on-laptop-while-holding-up-pantone-palette-colormap-from-behind-angle', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:13:15', '2019-11-06 06:13:15', '', 1996, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Diwali-Special-Learning-From-Creative-People-At-Work.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2193, 1, '2019-11-06 06:16:50', '2019-11-06 06:16:50', '', 'Analysis business accounting on info sheets. Businessman hand working on analyzing investment charts for Gold market, Forex market and Trading market.', 'financial instruments with various type of indicators including volume analysis for professional technical analysis on the monitor of a computer. Fundamental and technical analysis concept.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'analysis-business-accounting-on-info-sheets-businessman-hand-working-on-analyzing-investment-charts-for-gold-market-forex-market-and-trading-market', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:16:50', '2019-11-06 06:16:50', '', 1960, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Sensex’.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2194, 1, '2019-11-06 06:31:55', '2019-11-06 06:31:55', '', 'White Angle 360 degrees icon isolated with long shadow. Rotation of 360 degrees. Geometry math symbol. Full rotation. Purple hexagon button. Vector Illustration', 'White Angle 360 degrees icon isolated with long shadow. Rotation of 360 degrees. Geometry math symbol. Full rotation. Purple hexagon button. Vector Illustration', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'white-angle-360-degrees-icon-isolated-with-long-shadow-rotation-of-360-degrees-geometry-math-symbol-full-rotation-purple-hexagon-button-vector-illustration', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:31:55', '2019-11-06 06:31:55', '', 728, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Three-Degrees-of-Disruption-in-Home-Buying-in-India.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2195, 1, '2019-11-06 06:38:23', '2019-11-06 06:38:23', '', 'Pen on calculator. Coins of ten roubles in the background.', 'Pen on calculator. Coins of ten roubles in the background. Closeup', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pen-on-calculator-coins-of-ten-roubles-in-the-background', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:38:23', '2019-11-06 06:38:23', '', 355, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Accounting-fraud-and-liquidity-crunches-are-bedfellows.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2196, 1, '2019-11-06 06:51:19', '2019-11-06 06:51:19', '', 'Nice joyful woman looking at the city', 'Beautiful city. Nice joyful woman looking at the city while holding her hands up', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nice-joyful-woman-looking-at-the-city', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:51:19', '2019-11-06 06:51:19', '', 786, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/The-Fed’s-Accommodation-of-Wall-Street-Endgame.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2197, 1, '2019-11-06 06:53:01', '2019-11-06 06:53:01', '', 'Financial situation review', 'Man working on financial papers', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'financial-situation-review', '', '', '2019-11-06 06:53:01', '2019-11-06 06:53:01', '', 737, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Drive-Investment-Decisions.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2198, 1, '2019-11-06 07:20:09', '2019-11-06 07:20:09', '', 'writing text on retro typewriter', 'type spelling the word writing on a vintage typewriter, great concept for blogs, journalism, news, authors or the mass media', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'writing-text-on-retro-typewriter', '', '', '2019-11-06 07:20:09', '2019-11-06 07:20:09', '', 1659, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Great-Investigative-Writers.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2200, 1, '2019-11-06 09:08:22', '2019-11-06 09:08:22', 'The author is yet another high-quality writer from the Ritholtz stable and he has produced a really interesting piece of how trading, like other aspects of life, has gradually become an arms race. He begins by using Darwin’s theory of evolution to lay out the basic concept: <em>“Darwin is in the Galápagos Islands when he notices something peculiar about the various finches living there.  Each finch species had a different kind of beak.  On some of the islands the beaks were small, while on others they were large.  Some were pointy and some were smooth.</em>\r\n<em>As Darwin continued to observe the finches, he realized that their beaks were well suited for acquiring food on their particular island of residence.  It was as if the finches had adapted their beaks to fit their environment…Evolution by natural selection was born…However, by focusing solely on mother nature we miss half the story.  Because evolution isn’t just about adapting to the environment.  It’s also about adapting to the other players in that environment. </em><strong><em> We don’t just evolve to face the elements, we also evolve to face each other.</em></strong><em>”</em>\r\nThe author then highlights a book by Matt Ridley which expands on the point highlighted in bold font. <em>“This is the critical point made by Matt Ridley in The Red Queen: Sex and the Evolution of Human Nature.  In the book, Ridley argues that there is an evolutionary arms race between predators and prey, parasites and hosts, and even males and females.  This ongoing conflict implies, as Ridley suggests, that “the struggle for existence never gets easier.”  As Ridley states in his book:</em>\r\n<em>One of the peculiar features of history is that time always erodes advantage.  Every invention sooner or later leads to a counterinvention.  Every success contains the seeds of its overthrow.  Every hegemony comes to an end.  Evolutionary history is no different…The faster you run, the more the world moves with you and the less progress you make.  Life is a chess tournament in which if you win a game, you start the next game with the handicap of a missing pawn.”</em>\r\nThe author then brings this analogy into the financial markets: <em>“Just like the evolutionary arms race that Ridley describes, there is an investors arms race going on as well.  Once an investor finds an edge, it is only a matter of time until others figure out that edge and start copying it.  Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) learned this lesson the hard way as explained by Sebastian Mallaby in More Money Than God:</em>\r\n<em>‘Even though Long-Term shrouded itself in secrecy, routing its trades through multiple brokers so that none of them could understand its bets, an army of imitators had pierced together much of its strategy.  The upshot was that LTCM’s large portfolio was mirrored by an even larger superportfolio created by its disciples, meaning that LTCM’s trades were monstrously crowded.’</em>\r\n<em>These mirrored trades were partially what led to LTCM’s demise when it couldn’t exit its positions without causing markets to tumble.  What had worked for LTCM for years suddenly stop working.”</em>\r\nSo what implications does this theory for investors like you and me? The answer it would appear is:<em> “…any complex, adaptive system like the stock market will continue to evolve based on the decisions made by its many participants.</em>\r\n<em>This is why investing will never be easy.  Because if it was, then other investors would arbitrage any such easy return streams until it wasn’t easy anymore.  This explains why “buy the dip” will continue to work in this relentless bull market…until it doesn’t.  Or why gaining more information is advantageous until everyone else has that information as well.  Back and forth.  Back and forth...</em>\r\n<em>To echo what my colleague Michael Batnick recently asked, “Why should you get reward with no risk?”</em>\r\n<em>If the Red Queen has taught you anything, it should be that you (and your assets) will never be safe.  No advantage will persist forever….Because you have to earn your keep.  You have to be disciplined.  You have to work hard and keep working hard to hold onto your lead.  Because if it was handed to you, it will be taken back in time.  The Red Queen guarantees it.  So never stop running and make sure you earn it.”</em>', 'The Red Queen of Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1645-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:08:22', '2019-11-06 09:08:22', '', 1645, 'https://marcellus.in/1645-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2201, 1, '2019-11-06 09:15:53', '2019-11-06 09:15:53', 'Central banks’ influence on the global economy has been on the rise over the past few decades with ultra-low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies such as quantitative easing. Whilst they can be credited to have pulled financial markets up from the crises, their impact on the real economy remains a matter of debate. Growth is still amiss in Europe and Japan whilst the Fed is frustratingly short of its inflation target. Closer home too, the RBI’s own inflation forecasting hasn’t been particularly accurate, thereby resulting in high real interest rates. It is this aspect of central bankers’ ability to forecast macro-economic variables or the lack thereof and hence the efficacy of their policies is the main point of Claire Jones’ Alphaville piece. In this midst, she points out to the statement of Mr Chetan Ghate, one of the members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – an excerpt of which goes like “I will carefully watch the evolving growth-inflation risk picture. Estimates of economic growth in India have unfortunately been subject to a fair degree of floccinaucinihilipilification”. Claire explains <em>“While the choice of word is smug, its meaning -- <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=122e9d1cfd&amp;e=5648501957\">that trying to put a firm estimate on certain things is essentially worthless</a> -- harks back to an era of the more humble central banker.</em>\r\n<em>We’re not there yet, though. Following this admission of fallibility, Mr Ghate immediately reverted back to type. The next words out of his mouth: “Notwithstanding this, growth is likely to pick up from Q2-Q3: 2019-2020.”</em>', 'On floccinaucinihilipilification', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1619-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:15:53', '2019-11-06 09:15:53', '', 1619, 'https://marcellus.in/1619-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2202, 1, '2019-11-06 09:19:22', '2019-11-06 09:19:22', 'For most physics students, the introduction of Richard Feynman’s lectures would have made learning a joyful adventure by the sheer simplicity of Feynman’s teachings. In this article, Morgan Housel references Feynman to drive home the point that when it comes to advice, especially financial advice, simplicity struggles. We at Marcellus can relate to this as we reflect on our sales pitches. The selling pitch of buying high quality companies and holding them for long periods of time somehow draws a yawning response from prospective clients. On the contrary there are easy takers for a complex derivative structure which the client can’t comprehend. As Housel quotes computer scientist Edsger Dijkstra: <em>“Simplicity is the hallmark of truth— we should know better, but complexity continues to have a morbid attraction. When you give for an academic audience a lecture that is crystal clear from alpha to omega, your audience feels cheated and leaves the lecture hall commenting to each other: “That was rather trivial, wasn’t it? The sore truth is that complexity sells better.”</em>\r\nHousel explains four reasons why complexity sells:\r\n<em><strong>1. Simplicity feels like an easy walk. Complexity feels like mental CrossFit.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If the reps don’t hurt when you’re exercising, you’re not really exercising. Pain is the sign of progress that tells you you’re paying the unavoidable cost of admission. Short and simple communication is different. Richard Feynman and Stephen Hawking could teach math with simple language that didn’t hurt your head, not because they dumbed down the topics but because they knew how to get from A to Z in as few steps as possible. An effective rule of thumb doesn’t bypass complexity; It wraps things you don’t understand into things you do, like a baseball player who – by keeping <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=96f8e76a8a&amp;e=5648501957\">a ball level in his gaze</a> – knows where the ball will land as well as a physicist calculating the ball’s flight with precision.</em>\r\n<em>The problem with simplicity is that the reps don’t hurt, so you don’t feel like you’re getting a mental workout. It can create a preference for laborious learning that students are actually OK with because it feels like a cognitive bench press, with all the assumed benefits.</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Length is often the only thing that can signal effort and thoughtfulness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>The U.S. constitution is 7,591 words. A typical business management book covering a single topic is perhaps 250 pages, or something like 65,000 words.</em>\r\n<em>The funny thing is the average reader does not come close to finishing most books they buy. Even among bestsellers, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1ff18cf07&amp;e=5648501957\">average readers quit after a few dozen pages</a>. Length, then, has to serve a purpose other than providing more material. My theory is that length indicates the author has spent more time thinking about a topic than you have, which can be the only data point signaling they might have insight you don’t. It doesn’t mean their thinking is right. And you may get enough of their thinking after two chapters. But the purpose of chapters 3-16 is often to show the author has done so much work that chapters 1 and 2 might have some insight. Same for research reports and white papers.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Things you don’t understand create a mystique around people who do.</strong></em>\r\n<em>If you say something I didn’t know but can understand I might think you’re smart. If you say something I can’t understand I might think you have an ability to think about a topic in ways I can’t, which is a whole different species of admiration. When you understand things I don’t I have a hard time judging the limits of your knowledge in that field, which makes me more prone to taking your views at face value.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness.</strong></em>\r\n<em>In most fields a handful of variables <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=76b547e21d&amp;e=5648501957\">dictate the majority</a> of outcomes. But only paying attention to those few variables can feel like you’re leaving too much of the outcome to fate. The more knobs you can fiddle with – the 100-tab spreadsheet, or the Big Data analysis – the more control you feel you have over the situation, if only because the impression of knowledge increases. The flip side is that only paying attention to a few variables while ignoring the majority of others can make you look ignorant. If a client says, “What about this, what’s happening here?” and you respond, “Oh, I have no idea, I don’t even look at that,” the odds that you’ll sound uninformed are greater than the odds you’ll sound like you’ve mastered simplicity.</em>', 'Why Complexity Sells', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1617-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:19:22', '2019-11-06 09:19:22', '', 1617, 'https://marcellus.in/1617-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2203, 1, '2019-11-06 09:23:56', '2019-11-06 09:23:56', 'Barry Ritholtz has written this article in the context of the US Financial Services industry but he might as well be talking about India given that India’s rating agencies have covered themselves with as much muck over the past four years as the US rating agencies did in the run-up to the Lehman crisis. For those of us who lived through the Lehman crisis, the sins of the rating agencies are a story we have heard before: <em>“Moody’s and S&amp;P (Fitch was a relatively small player) slapped investment grade ratings on securities backed by junk subprime loans because they were literally paid to do so by debt issuers. Issuers shopped for ratings -- if Moody’s refused to provide a desired grade, then S&amp;P would (and vice versa). When it all went south, the debt raters made feeble attempts to claim their ratings were \"opinions,\" or protected political speech under the First Amendment. These arguments failed, eventually leading to fines for their malfeasance. S&amp;P paid $1.5 billion to settle with the U.S. and individual states; Moody’s paid a much smaller fine.”</em>\r\nSo what can be done to fix the rating agencies especially since 11 years on from Lehman the agencies seem to be riddled with the same conflicts of interest that destroyed the fabric of the financial system 11 years ago? Ritholtz has a few suggestions that regulators should consider:\r\n1.       <strong>Sell ratings to bond buyers, not bond issuers:</strong> <em>“…During the 19th century, investors in railroads paid for information on the quality of the bonds they were buying, which is how S&amp;P and Moody\'s got their start. In the 1970s, the raters began the practice of charging issuers for their services, displacing the subscriber-pays model. That the investor-pays model once prevailed suggests that under the right conditions and with the right incentives it could work again.”</em>\r\n2.       <strong>Assign and rotate rating companies randomly:</strong> <em>“After the many accounting scandal of the early 2000s…a number of reforms were made to the accounting industry. Included in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act was the establishment of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, or PCAOB. This established new standards for independence, created audit rules and mandated quality control. Perhaps most importantly, it required whoever the lead partner was on an audit to rotate off that project every five years, reducing the tendency of those who are supposed to work at arm\'s length from getting too cozy….The incentive to cheat was replaced with a high probability of getting caught. The result has been a dearth of the kind of accounting frauds that were so common in the late 1990s and 2000s.” </em>\r\n3.       <strong>Eliminate the government stamp of approval:</strong> <em>“The credit raters were granted special government dispensations in 1975, setting them up as the official arbiters of corporate credit quality. This unique status created a moral hazard, with raters facing few consequences for their actions; it is also what enabled the structural problem in the first place. Compare this situation to the equity side: the dot-com implosion taught stock buyers not to rely on Wall Street analyst ratings, which exist (mostly) for the benefit of investment bankers, not investors.”</em>\r\nIronically, although India has made more progress than America in bringing the auditors to heel (through mandatory rotation of auditors and through the creation of an independent regulator for the audit profession), India has done as little as America to make the credit rating agencies more accountable. Ritholtz’s ideas therefore have as much relevance in India as in the US.', 'The Bond Raters Still Need to Be Fixed', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1615-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:23:56', '2019-11-06 09:23:56', '', 1615, 'https://marcellus.in/1615-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2204, 1, '2019-11-06 09:25:23', '2019-11-06 09:25:23', 'We would like to believe a lot of investing success can be attributed to behavioural aspects or psychology than subject matter expertise. Now there is a whole body of research emerging taking this to the next level in terms of assessment of the fund manager’s personality traits as a key input to manager selection, according to this piece in The Institutional Investor. The piece ends with this quote from a pension fund manager about what all he considers while selecting fund managers <em>“It may seem silly,” he says. “But in my experience, yes, if there’s a lot of red Ferraris in the parking lot — particularly if they’re leaving by 3 in the afternoon — it’s time to get off the bus.”</em> Like he says, it might seem too simplistic but one gets the drift. Indeed, we at Marcellus incorporate this line of thinking whilst assessing promoters (or CEOs) of the companies we would like to invest in. My colleague Saurabh Mukherjea has written extensively on the behavioural aspect of investing – whether in the context of capital allocation by a CEO or a business owner or a fund manager or indeed our clients when they invest with us. You can read two of those pieces <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5e0ec6e753&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3acdf75223&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a>. As fund manager evaluation in future will likely incorporate such behavioural aspects, we at Marcellus look forward to undergoing a slew of psychometric tests from our prospective clients.\r\n<em>“Should investors care about a fund manager’s relationship status? What kind of car they drive? Ask them if they’ve won any poker games lately? Research points to yes. A recent outpouring of academic papers links the investment performance of professional fund managers to their characteristics as individuals — how they grew up, their personality traits, even their testosterone levels. Studies have explored the impact of everything from <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00a1efc685&amp;e=5648501957\">where investors went to school</a> to <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c3f8224f4d&amp;e=5648501957\">whether they lost a parent in childhood.</a> The studies have attracted widespread attention from financial and mainstream media outlets — Institutional Investor included. You’ve probably seen the headlines: “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ea1d6cf2de&amp;e=5648501957\">A Hedge Fund Manager Who Drives a Ferrari Will Probably Underperform</a>.” “‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d908eed27&amp;e=5648501957\">Psychopath’ Hedge Fund Managers Make Less Money Than Nice Guys</a>.” “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=315d7525d1&amp;e=5648501957\">Why ‘Alpha Males’ Make Bad Hedge Fund Managers</a>.” The <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fbea76228b&amp;e=5648501957\">list</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=00d774af2d&amp;e=5648501957\">goes</a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=803d136fb0&amp;e=5648501957\">on</a>.</em>\r\n<em>….One such paper arose after a hedge fund of funds sought to quantify the relationship between personality traits and performance. The firm, San Francisco-based TeamCo Advisers, approached psychology professor Dacher Keltner and psychology PhD Leanne ten Brinke, now an assistant professor at the University of Denver.</em>\r\n<em>Ten Brinke remembers having “no idea what a hedge fund was.” Her prior research had focused on the psychopathic tendencies of criminals. At that time, she was conducting personality assessments and using nonverbal cues to identify psychopathic and other personality traits. TeamCo Advisers wanted to take that skill set and apply it to hedge fund manager selection. “They were interested in if you could find a personality trait that led to greater returns,” says ten Brinke. “But they were particularly interested in avoiding blowups — Bernie Madoff types who are just ripping people off.” </em>\r\n<em>The resulting collaboration was a study focused on what psychologists refer to as the dark triad: narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy. By analyzing videotaped interviews of 101 hedge fund managers, ten Brinke and Keltner spotted these traits and examined whether there was any distinguishable link to investment performance.</em>\r\n<em>The results were definitive: Hedge fund managers who most exhibited the dark triad characteristics trailed the overall group by almost a full percentage point each year in investment returns annualized from 2005 to 2015. When their performance was adjusted for risk, the gap grew even wider.”</em>', 'Sports Cars, Psychopaths, and Testosterone: Inside the New Frontier of Fund Manager Research', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1613-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:25:23', '2019-11-06 09:25:23', '', 1613, 'https://marcellus.in/1613-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2205, 1, '2019-11-06 09:30:00', '2019-11-06 09:30:00', 'This piece in the WIRED is an adaptation from the book <em>The Breakthrough: Immunotherapy and the Race to Cure Cancer. </em>Quite a riveting story about how when the parents of a six year old offered a bunch of researchers a chance to save their daughter when doctors of conventional medicine had given up all hope. How these researchers had been trialling the cure for decades and finally came up with the ‘Breakthrough” goes to demonstrate the perseverance of scientists and more importantly the incremental contributions made by several scientists working on the solution across the world, which all added up to the eventual ‘discovery’.\r\n<em>“Emily Whitehead would be the world’s first kid to try an experimental cancer therapy, called CAR-T. Researchers were offering to reprogram her immune cells into a clone army of cancer-targeting serial killers. A CAR-T CELL is a reengineered T cell that has been removed from the cancer patient, tweaked in the lab to recognize that patient’s cancer, and then injected back into the patient. Because each of these reengineered cells is a monstrous robocop-like assemblage of immune cell parts, researchers had given their invention the equally monstrous name of “Chimeric Antigen Receptor T cell” (in Greek mythology, the chimera is a patchwork monster combining aspects of a lion, goat, and serpent), but “CAR-T” sounds much better.</em>\r\n<em>CAR-T is often called the “most complex drug ever created,” but it is not really a drug in the traditional sense. Unlike an inert molecule introduced to the body for some temporary effect, CAR-T is alive. If it worked as designed, this “living drug” would go on living in Emily’s bloodstream like a cancer-killing superpower, providing her with a sort of immunity against her disease. And in the process, it would give humanity a revolutionary new weapon in the war on cancer.</em>\r\n<em>THE HUNDREDS OF millions of T cells that patrol our bloodstreams and lymph nodes are expert at recognizing sick body cells and killing them. And, although the idea was </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=173f7525b2&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>dismissed by most scientists</em></a><em> for the past 100 years, a handful of these T cells are predisposed to recognizing and killing cancer, too.</em>\r\n<em>So, why doesn’t our immune system do that job? You always know when you have a cold or the flu, but cancer arrives without so much as a sniffle. Why does it usually require a test to know that we have this deadly disease?</em>\r\n<em>The answer to that question came in a series of breakthrough discoveries of how cancer uses tricks to turn off, hide from, and overwhelm our immune response. Cancer shuts down T cells before they get a chance to call for reinforcements, reproduce into an overwhelming clone army, and do their job. But what if there was a way to overwhelm cancer instead, barraging it with huge numbers of immune cells capable of recognizing and killing it?”</em>', 'How Scientists Built A \'Living Drug\' to beat Cancer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1611-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:30:00', '2019-11-06 09:30:00', '', 1611, 'https://marcellus.in/1611-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2206, 1, '2019-11-06 09:33:11', '2019-11-06 09:33:11', 'Cal Newport begins by telling us for most of human history, messaging was synchronous by default i.e. in an office or a factory people who needed to be told something had to meet the message giver face to face. As a result, for much of the 20<sup>th</sup> century <em>“the push to create what communication specialists call “asynchronous messaging” in the workplace. An interaction is said to be synchronous when all parties participate at the same time, while standing in the same room, perhaps, or by telephone. Asynchronous communication, by contrast, doesn’t require the receiver to be present when a message is sent. I can send a message to you whenever I want; you answer it at your leisure.”</em>\r\nInitially, offices used message slips to make messaging asynchronous. However, as message slips started piling up on people’s desks, the limitations of this messaging medium became apparent. In the midst of this chaos, arrived e-mail: <em>“Then, in the nineteen-eighties, a far more convenient technology arrived, in the form of desktop computers connected through digital networks. As these networks spread, e-mail emerged as the killer app for bringing asynchronous communication to the office. To better understand this shift, I talked to Gloria Mark, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, who studies the impact that computer technology has had on the workplace. “I can show it to you,” she told me, when I asked about the spread of e-mail. She showed me a data table she had constructed, which summarized the results of office-time-use studies from 1965 to 2006. The studies can be divided into two groups: before e-mail and after. In the studies conducted before e-mail, workers spent around forty per cent of their time in “scheduled meetings,” and twenty per cent engaged in “desk work.” In those conducted after e-mail, the percentages are swapped.</em>\r\n<em>With the arrival of practical asynchronous communication, people replaced a significant portion of the interaction that used to unfold in person with on-demand digital messaging, and they haven’t looked back. The Radicati Group, a technology-research firm, now estimates that more than a hundred and twenty-eight billion business e-mails will be sent and received daily in 2019, with the average business user dealing with a hundred and twenty-six messages a day. The domination of asynchronous communication over synchronous collaboration has been so complete that some developers of digital-collaboration tools mock the fact that we ever relied on anything so primitive as in-person meetings.”</em>\r\nHowever, life is not as simple as it looks. Newport now introduces a twist in the story: <em>“As e-mail was taking over the modern office, researchers in the theory of distributed systems—the subfield in which, as a computer scientist, I specialize—were also studying the trade-offs between synchrony and asynchrony. As it happens, the conclusion they reached was exactly the opposite of the prevailing consensus. They became convinced that synchrony was superior and that spreading communication out over time hindered work rather than enabling it….</em>\r\n<em>Investigating asynchronous communication using a mathematical approach known as algorithm theory, they [computer scientists] discovered that spreading out communication with unpredictable delays introduced new complexities that were difficult to reduce. While the business world came to see synchrony as an obstacle to overcome, theorists began to realize that it was fundamental for effective collaboration…It turns out that asynchrony makes coördination so complicated that it’s almost always worth paying the price required to introduce at least some synchronization.”</em>\r\nSo why is any of this of interest to you and me? It is because Cal Newport goes on to explain that the current paradigm of emails, phone calls and instant messaging that we use to work is actually neither efficient (from the perspective of time management) nor very effective (in terms of the quality of decision making): <em>“Anyone who works in a standard office environment has firsthand experience with the problems that followed the enthusiastic embrace of asynchronous communication. As the distributed-system theorists discovered, shifting away from synchronous interaction makes coördination more complex. The dream of replacing the quick phone call with an even quicker e-mail message didn’t come to fruition; instead, what once could have been resolved in a few minutes on the phone now takes a dozen back-and-forth messages to sort out. With larger groups of people, this increased complexity becomes even more notable. Is an unresponsive colleague just delayed, or is she completely checked out? When has consensus been reached in a group e-mail exchange? Are you, the e-mail recipient, required to respond, or can you stay silent without holding up the decision-making process? Was your point properly understood, or do you now need to clarify with a follow-up message? Office workers pondering these puzzles—the real-life analogues of the theory of distributed systems—now dedicate an increasing amount of time to managing a growing number of never-ending interactions.”</em>\r\nFurthermore as we frequently check our email or our messages, our attention spans are blown to bits with consequential impact on our depth of thinking: <em>“Last year, the software company RescueTime gathered and aggregated anonymized computer-usage logs from tens of thousands of people. When its data scientists crunched the numbers, they found that, on average, users were checking e-mail or instant-messenger services like Slack once every six minutes. Not long before, a team led by Gloria Mark, the U.C. Irvine professor, had installed similar logging software on the computers of employees at a large corporation; the study found that the employees checked their in-boxes an average of seventy-seven times a day. Although we shifted toward asynchronous communication so that we could stop wasting time playing phone tag or arranging meetings, communicating in the workplace had become more onerous than it used to be. Work has become something we do in the small slivers of time that remain amid our Sisyphean skirmishes with our in-boxes.”</em>\r\nSo what is the way forward? What is the solution? <em>“Isolated examples of well-planned, structured synchrony are starting to emerge in the business world. Many of these experiments come from the tech sector…Recently, the founder and CEO of a publicly traded technology company told me that he spends at most two or three hours a week sending and receiving e-mails; he has replaced most of his asynchronous messaging with a “regular rhythm” of meetings, which allows him to efficiently address issues in real time…</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, the software-development firm Basecamp now allows employees to set professor-style office hours: if you need to talk to an expert on a given subject, you can sign up for her office hours instead of shooting her an e-mail. “You get that person’s full, undivided attention,” Jason Fried, the company’s co-founder and C.E.O., said, on the podcast Curious Minds. “It’s such a calmer way of doing this.” If something is urgent and the expert’s office hours aren’t for another few days, then, Fried explained, “that’s just how it goes.”</em>\r\n<em>At many technology companies, a popular alternative to hyperactive asynchronous messaging is a collaboration framework called Scrum, popular among software developers. Teams of programmers using Scrum divide their efforts into “sprints,” each focussed on introducing a related set of features to a piece of software. During these sprints, which last from one to four weeks, the team meets once a day. Everyone gets a chance to speak. Team members describe what they accomplished yesterday and what they’re going to work on today; if they think they’ll need help, they let the right people know. In classic Scrum, colored notes pinned to a board are arranged to publicly reflect these commitments, so that there’s no ambiguity about the plan. These meetings are often held standing up, so that no one feels tempted to bloviate, and they typically last for around fifteen minutes. The idea that a quarter of an hour of structured synchrony is enough time to enable a full day of work might sound preposterous, but, for more than twelve million software developers, it seems to be working. Many people are surprised when they first learn about the effectiveness of Scrum…”</em>', 'Was e-mail a mistake?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1609-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:33:11', '2019-11-06 09:33:11', '', 1609, 'https://marcellus.in/1609-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2207, 1, '2019-11-06 09:34:40', '2019-11-06 09:34:40', 'At the core of Marcellus’ investment philosophy is the hunt for quasi-monopolies i.e, companies that dominate their sectors, especially where the product or service is essential to the common man. Such dominance often comes with superior RoCE’s (Return on Capital Employed) which in turn allows high reinvestment rates and therefore long term sustainable profit growth. This piece in the Guardian takes a similar look at the American consumption basket and points to the trend of a handful of companies dominating product categories. This might seem to suggest that the consumer is bereft of choice and hence capitalism has failed in its duty to drive competition and offer the consumer the freedom to choose. The article however argues that such dominance may not necessarily be a failure of capitalism but indeed the result of capitalism where companies that deliver value to the consumer through innovation and efficiencies and offer better products at lower prices end up taking the lion’s share of the consumer wallet. Marcellus’ portfolio companies too exhibit similar traits where despite high market shares, they are averse to taking price hikes but instead strive to drive profitability through operating efficiencies.\r\n<em>“American culture valorizes the small. Small-town life is overrepresented and romanticized on the screen – think Hawkins in Stranger Things – a form of escapism in a country where 80% of people live in a city, but two in five say they’d prefer a rural or small-town home. Likewise companies: US adults are three times as likely to have a “very favorable” view of small businesses as they are of large enterprises (59% v 17%), according to a 2018 survey from the Public Affairs Council. The nostalgia for small-town life and “mom and pop” stores stands in stark contrast not only to an urbanized population but the power of large companies. Capitalism is an engine of choice-making and competition, but very often the competition is between brands owned by the same company, or between small numbers of large economic players. Smallness rules the imagination; bigness rules the high street.</em>\r\n<em>From the moment we wake up to eat our cereal and brush our teeth, our consumer choices are dominated by a handful of large companies.</em>\r\n<em><strong>7.30am: </strong></em><em>You brush every morning, right? Good. And there are so very many pastes to choose from. But most of these are produced by one of the three companies that dominate the market: Crest (20%), Colgate (21%) and Sensodyne (12%). </em>\r\n<em><strong>8am: </strong></em><em>A meal created by modernity, cereal has become a staple of western diets (unfortunately, but that’s another story). And it does not come artisan crafted from down the road, but from huge companies: Kellogg and General Mills have virtually carved the market up between them, accounting for almost a third of sales each.</em>\r\n<em><strong>8.30am: </strong></em><em>Most Americans drive to work, and most do so in a car manufactured by one of four companies: General Motors, Ford, Toyota or Fiat Chrysler. Together these four account for 60% of car sales. That said, the next five companies account for 30%: Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Hyundai and Kia. Here at least there seems to be some pretty robust competition, not least from overseas. But let’s see if that lasts…….</em>\r\n<em><strong>6pm: </strong></em><em>Calling a friend for after-work plans? That will be with an iPhone, most likely (55% market share): or perhaps a Samsung (25%). Either way, the chances are it will be using either Verizon or AT&amp;T, who between them control two-thirds of the wireless market.</em>\r\n<em>Big companies dominate consumption. This is not a bad thing in itself. Companies get big by winning customers, and they win customers by providing a good product and/or service, which is the whole point of consumer markets. Different divisions of large companies may compete against each other; consumers are often unaware that they are choosing between two products owned by the same company. The problem comes if success leads to incumbency, with large, powerful companies able to use their power to shape regulations to suit them, rather than assist their competitors. Being market-friendly is not the same thing as being business-friendly, a confusion common to politicians. Big is neither beautiful nor bad, so long as regulators remain faithful to consumers, rather than the companies serving them.”</em>', 'Starbucks v Dunkin\': how capitalism gives us the illusion of choice', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1606-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:34:40', '2019-11-06 09:34:40', '', 1606, 'https://marcellus.in/1606-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2208, 1, '2019-11-06 09:36:42', '2019-11-06 09:36:42', 'How to spot the peak of a market bubble? WeWork’s planned IPO might just give you the template – a flawed business model with assets and liabilities totally out of whack, an up-in-the-air valuation, outright corporate governance misdemeanours, related party transactions, creative accounting in all its glory, a self-aggrandizing founder and here’s the best part – to call it the peak of the tech bubble, it is not even a tech company. The IPO prospectus that came out earlier this week has stunned analysts and investors alike for the bold disclosures. Whilst you can indulge yourself with several scathing and some hilariously so pieces on the subject, Chris Bryant at Bloomberg sums it up crisply for us.\r\n<strong>Accounting and Governance Shenanigans</strong>\r\n<em>“The “hip” office space provider makes huge losses but its individual locations are somehow deemed profitable thanks to flattering accounting adjustments. While there was no mention this time of the company’s “community-adjusted Ebitda,” a much-maligned metric that boosted its profit shamelessly, it came up with an equally problematic “contribution margin” even though that positive figure excludes some hefty corporate operating expenses.</em>\r\n<em>…Neumann’s grip on the company is equally troubling as he’ll still control most of the voting rights after the listing. That gives him the power to remove directors and executives who displease him and, of course, to dictate strategy. It’s an unequal relationship too. Despite his apparent importance he doesn’t have an employment contract, meaning he could leave at any time in theory.</em>\r\n<em>…Various eye-opening “related-party” transactions (in this case, WeWork taking out leases on buildings owned by Neumann) are declared, as my colleague Shira Ovide points out. Meanwhile, three of the banks underwriting the IPO have extended Neumann a $500 million credit line secured against his shares. If he were ever unable to satisfy a margin call, the lenders could seize and sell stock, the prospectus notes, putting downward pressure on the share price. In other words, the interests of Neumann and other investors aren’t necessarily aligned.”</em>\r\n<strong>Business model and Valuation</strong>\r\n<em>“Just because Masayoshi Son’s SoftBank entities and other backers believe this company is worth at least $47 billion (or perhaps twice that if the targets of a recent stock incentive plan are any guide) doesn’t just make it so. The reality is that that WeWork operates in a cyclical sector with few barriers to new competitors, and it remains both a corporate governance nightmare and a cash bonfire. Its main listed rival, the U.K.’s IWG Plc, is capitalized at just 3.75 billion pounds ($4.4 billion). And that’s despite it generating more revenue than WeWork and making a profit.</em>\r\n<em>…But how can one put a value on the shares anyway? The company doesn’t plan on paying dividends, which is hardly surprising in view of the $2.5 billion of cash it burned through in the first six months of this year. And you can’t easily apply a multiple of earnings to estimate its value because WeWork doesn’t have any of those either – and won’t do for the foreseeable future.</em>\r\n<em>Net losses, which totaled $1.6 billion in 2018, “may increase as a percentage of revenue in the near term and will continue to grow on an absolute basis,” the company said, ominously. </em>\r\n<em>This all matters because WeWork has a growing pile of debt and $47 billion of mostly long-term lease obligations. Unlike a WeWork membership, those leases can’t be cancelled easily. Revenue that’s been committed covers less than one-tenth of that total lease obligation“</em>\r\n<strong>Founder</strong>\r\n<em>“…Meanwhile, WeWork’s description of Adam Neumann, its co-founder and chief executive, stops short of claiming he can walk on water, but only just: “Adam is a unique leader who has proven he can simultaneously wear the hats of visionary, operator and innovator, while thriving as a community and culture creator,” it says. That’s a lot of headgear.”</em>', 'WeWork Stands Before Us in All Its Naked Glory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1604-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:36:42', '2019-11-06 09:36:42', '', 1604, 'https://marcellus.in/1604-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2209, 1, '2019-11-06 09:38:45', '2019-11-06 09:38:45', 'Given the lifestyle of most professionals and the way they deal with broadcast &amp; social media <em>“many of us are highly overstimulated at best and addicted at worst to things that grab at our attention. Even worse, we don\'t realize the extent—as I wrote, Americans spend a whopping 11 hours a day engaging with media of some kind! It’s unclear what the long-term implications of this overstimulation are on our brains, but in my private practice working with executive clients, I have observed that this interferes with our ability to sustain attention, regulate our emotions in non-avoidant ways, and enjoy simple tasks that seem boring by comparison.”</em>\r\nIn chemical terms what is happening is that our brains have become accustomed to seeking dopamine shots relentlessly. <em>“Dopamine is the neurotransmitter in our brains that’s responsible for motivation and reward. To grossly oversimplify, dopaminergic drugs (e.g. stimulants such as Adderall, cocaine, &amp; methamphetamine) act on dopamine receptors like a key opening a lock, and over time, downregulate these receptors, which makes us less sensitive to dopamine. This results in using more and more of a stimulant to get the same effects, enabling the cycle of addiction. But even behaviors such as gaming or gambling can become problematic and addictive through the reinforcement that dopamine brings….This is not to demonize dopamine; it’s an important brain chemical,…</em> <em>my point is that we may be getting too much of a good thing, especially when dopamine reinforces behaviors that are out of line with our values.”</em>\r\nSo what is remedy? How can we calm down and rid ourselves of our dopamine addiction? The author, Dr Sepah, says <em>“I am popularizing “dopamine fasting” as the antidote to our overstimulated age. Dopamine fasting has precedent from psychiatric practice….To be clear: the goal is not to achieve a no/low dopamine state! Rather, taking a break from behaviors that trigger strong amounts of dopamine release (especially in a repeated fashion) allows our brain to recover and restore itself. Most importantly, dopamine fasting is training yourself to have more control and flexibility over whether or not you engage in a behavior when you need to (e.g. choosing not to procrastinate when you have a deadline).”</em>\r\nThe doctor proceeds to recommend six types of behaviours from which we need to do take breaks from (i.e. avoid or “fast”) on an intermittent basis:\r\n·       Pleasure eating\r\n·       Internet/gaming\r\n·       Gambling/shopping\r\n·       Porn/Masturbation\r\n·       Thrill/novelty seeking\r\n·       Recreational drugs\r\nThe doctor then gives you a fasting timetable: <em>“A suggested schedule for dopamine fasting is as follows:</em>\r\n<em>1-4 hours at the end of the day (depending on work &amp; family demands)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend day (spent it outside on a Saturday or Sunday)</em>\r\n<em>1 weekend per quarter (go on a local trip)</em>\r\n<em>1 week per year (go on vacation!)”</em>\r\nTo our untrained eye, this appears to be a “beginners guide to vipassana”. That being said, as a way to settle down our monkey mind, Dr Sepah’s remedy sounds useful.', 'Dopamine Fasting - The Hot Silicon Valley Trend', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1602-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:38:45', '2019-11-06 09:38:45', '', 1602, 'https://marcellus.in/1602-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2210, 1, '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '‘Learning how to learn’ is arguably the most important skill that any of us can master. Furthermore, once you acquire/learn new things, you want to be able to retain them. Unfortunately, our schools are not focused on teaching us these skills. <em>“During the school years, most of us got used to spending hours at a time memorizing facts, equations, the names of the elements, French verbs, dates of key historical events. We found ourselves frantically cramming the night before a test. We probably read through our notes over and over, a gallon of coffee in hand, in the hope that the information would somehow lodge in our brains. Once the test was over, we doubtless forgot everything straight away.”</em>\r\nThis method of rote learning is tedious and ineffective.<em>” This is where the spacing effect comes in. It’s a wildly useful phenomenon: we are better able to recall information and concepts if we learn them in multiple, spread-out sessions. We can leverage this effect by using spaced repetition to slowly learn almost anything.”</em>\r\nSo what is spaced repetition? Gabriel Wyner gives an example in his book ‘Fluent Forever: How to Learn Any Language and Never Forget It’: <em>“Spaced repetition…[is] extraordinarily efficient. In a four-month period, practising for 30 minutes a day, you can expect to learn and retain 3600 flashcards with 90 to 95 percent accuracy. These flashcards can teach you an alphabet, vocabulary, grammar, and even pronunciation. And they can do it without becoming tedious because they’re always challenging enough to remain interesting and fun.”</em>\r\nThe man who discovered this is Hermann Ebbinghaus, a German psychologist. He figured out how the mind forgets (there is a lovely chart in the article showing this). That in turn led him towards a method to optimise retention. <em>“There is a way to slow down the process of forgetting. We need only to recall or revisit the information after we originally come across it. Going over the information later, at intervals, helps us remember a greater percentage of the material. Persistence will allow us to recall with 100% accuracy all that we want to remember….Under normal conditions, frequent repetitions aid memory. We know this intuitively. Just try to memorize this article on a single repetition. However much attention, focus, or individual ability you have, it won’t work.</em>\r\n<em>Memory mastery comes from repeated exposure to the material. Ebbinghaus observes, “Left to itself every mental content gradually loses its capacity for being revived, or at least suffers loss in this regard under the influence of time.” Cramming is not an effective memorization strategy. Lacking the robustness developed in later sessions, crammed facts soon vanish. Even something as important and frequently used as language can decay if not put into use.”</em>\r\nAstonishingly, no psychologist has as yet figured out why spaced repetition works so well. Hence the article presents some of theories which have been laid out to explain the efficacy of this technique. We find it even more surprising that schools don’t use this technique more frequently.', 'The Spacing Effect: How to Improve Learning and Maximise Retention', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1600-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '2019-11-06 09:42:51', '', 1600, 'https://marcellus.in/1600-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2211, 1, '2019-11-06 09:48:06', '2019-11-06 09:48:06', 'You would think that whilst financial markets can change rapidly, social change takes place more gradually. This academic paper challenges that notion in an important area – how people of opposite sexes meet each other and enter a relationship specifically in the USA: <em>“We present new data from a nationally representative 2017 survey of American adults. For heterosexual couples in the U.S., meeting online has become the most popular way couples meet, eclipsing meeting through friends for the first time around 2013. Moreover, among the couples who meet online, the proportion who have met through the mediation of third persons has declined over time. We find that Internet meeting is displacing the roles that family and friends once played in bringing couples together.”</em>\r\nUntil 15 years ago, most American couples met via friends and family and this was thought to be a perfectly rational thing to do. “<em>The traditional system of dating, mediated by friends and family, has long been theorized to be optimal for mate selection. The family system is historically predicated, in part, on catalyzing and promoting the most socially acceptable mating outcomes for the younger generation (Rosenfeld 2007). Meeting through friends and family provided guarantees that any potential partner had been personally vetted and vouched for by trusted alters. Classic work by Bott (1957) found that social closure had benefits in terms of relationship quality and duration.” </em>\r\nThe internet however has displaced friends and family in terms of how couples meet: <em>“Despite the traditional advantages of meeting face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face through connections established by friends and family, the potential technological benefits of online dating are numerous as well (Cacioppo et al. 2013; Rosenfeld 2017), and are described below. Our Hypothesis 1 is that the percentage of heterosexual couples meeting online will have continued to grow beyond the previously identified 2005</em><em>‐</em><em>2009 plateau of 22%.</em><em>”</em>\r\nInterestingly, that does NOT necessarily mean that marriages in America will become more heterogenous. <em>“The broad dissemination of land line telephones in the US in the early 20th century, made it easier for Americans to stay in touch with relatives from out of town, but it did not change who interacted with whom. Most telephone calls were made to people one already knew (Fischer 1994)…</em> <em>Research on technology as reinforcing existing face</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>face social ties leads to our Hypothesis 2: Any rise in Internet dating will reinforce rather than displace the intermediary roles of friends and family.”</em>\r\nThat being said the authors contend that going forward the internet might well replace conventional social networks and thus lead to people choosing their mates from a broader network of people: <em>“There are several potential reasons why the ascendency of Internet dating might displace friends and family, despite the expectations of Hypothesis 2. First, the sets of people connected to Tinder, Match, and eHarmony are larger than the sets of people connected to one’s mother or friend. Larger choice sets are valuable to everyone engaged in search (Rosenfeld 2017). Larger choice sets are especially valuable for people who are searching for something unusual or hard</em><em>‐</em><em>to</em><em>‐</em><em>find, which is why online dating is even more valuable for gays and lesbians than it is for heterosexuals (Rosenfeld and Thomas 2012)</em><em>…</em><em>. Dating perfect strangers encountered online is potentially more discreet than dating a friend</em><em>’</em><em>s friend.”</em>\r\nIt would be incredibly interesting if someone could do research of this kind on the Indian marriage market. Companies like Matrimony and Jeevansathi are sitting on goldmines of data which could be analysed to assess which of the hypothesis outlined above are more relevant for India.', 'Disintermediating your friends', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1598-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:48:06', '2019-11-06 09:48:06', '', 1598, 'https://marcellus.in/1598-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2212, 1, '2019-11-06 09:49:35', '2019-11-06 09:49:35', 'Whilst political corruption is extensively discussed in India, the corruption of the Indian judiciary is both reported less frequently by the press and discussed even less frequently by Indian voters. That’s a shame because alongside the executive and the Parliament, the judiciary is the third pillar of India’s democracy. This in-depth piece from the Caravan – a magazine which has the guts to speak its mind – details the steady erosion of ethics in the upper echelons of the Indian judiciary over the past 40 years.\r\nIt all started with Indira Gandhi: <em>““Indira was the worst,” a senior advocate of the Supreme Court told me recently. It is not far-fetched to imagine India’s entire legal community singing that line in unison. Indira Gandhi’s decision as prime minister to install AN Ray as the CJI in 1973—superseding the Supreme Court’s three most senior judges at the time—violated the convention of promotion by seniority that the judiciary has held dear for its entire history. The move was seen as retribution for the superseded trio’s positions in the Kesavananda Bharati case. In it, the Supreme Court, by a narrow majority of a 13-judge bench, had ruled that parliament could not pass any laws that violated the “basic structure” of the Constitution; and affirmed, for the first time, the court’s right to strike down any laws that did. Gandhi had not taken kindly to this curtailment of the government’s power.</em>\r\n<em>The pernicious fruit of what Gandhi sowed arrived, most famously, with the Habeas Corpus Case, which followed her declaration of the Emergency, in 1975. Faced with the government’s use of emergency powers to detain its critics without trial, a five-judge bench headed by Ray waved away citizens’ right to appeal their detention before a court of law. Only a single judge dared to dissent.”</em>\r\nIn the post-Indira world, through the 1980s, 90s and noughties, the judiciary fought back to entrench itself and its powers: <em>“After the Emergency, the judiciary faced the job of restoring its fallen image. Its response, always invoking the extremes of the Emergency for justification, was the consolidation of the doctrine of judicial primacy—part of which now means that judges must be pre-eminent in the appointment process. This presumed that, if left to itself, the judiciary would automatically produce competent and independent courts…Step by step, India’s top judges arrogated to themselves more and more of the authority to select and promote their own.”</em>\r\nWhen the NDA came to power in the 2014 it did not take a genius to figure out that one of its first priorities would be to get its arms around the judiciary: <em>“To add to the disquiet, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the BJP’s parent body, had long wanted to inject the judiciary with its Hindutva ideology. A draft proposal for restructuring the Indian government that was circulated at a 1998 conference of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, the student wing of the RSS, proposed the creation of a “guru sabha” comprising sadhus and sanyasis. Among other functions, this body would act as a judicial commission, with the power to nominate and impeach judges of the Supreme Court. This was reported in 2000 by Subramanian Swamy, now a member of the BJP, in a magazine article titled “The RSS game plan.””</em>\r\nIn 2015 the judiciary managed to see off the NDA’s attempt to replace the current collegium system followed by the Supreme Court for selecting its seniormost judges (a system where the judges choose other judges for the highest judicial posts available in the nation). But even as they were doing this, other corrupt judges were using political patronage to muscle their way to the top. It is worth reading the article to understand this process and what it means for the future of law &amp; order in India.', 'In Sua Causa: What the judiciary has done to itself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1596-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:49:35', '2019-11-06 09:49:35', '', 1596, 'https://marcellus.in/1596-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2213, 1, '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '<strong><em>Featured in the 24<sup>th</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWhen we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fun &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort...people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1590-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '2019-11-06 09:59:11', '', 1590, 'https://marcellus.in/1590-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2214, 1, '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '<strong><em>Featured in the 20th January edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nWe had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1588-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '2019-11-06 10:01:02', '', 1588, 'https://marcellus.in/1588-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2215, 1, '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '<strong><em>Featured in the 5<sup>th</sup> May edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nFarnam Street’s reiteration of its 2014 blog about a concept that we encounter everyday in our interactions with prospective clients. Most of us are enamoured with the hunt for undiscovered value or the big thematic plays that can go onto become multi-baggers, when portfolio after portfolio we find that the more successful ones are less about these multi-baggers than about avoiding the duds and the frauds. This piece drives home the point using the amateur tennis analogy elaborated in Charles Ellis’ award winning article <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87753f0b1a&amp;e=5648501957\"><em>The Loser’s Game</em></a>. The piece has nuggets from Charles Ellis, Benjamin Graham and a gem from Charlie Munger to finish off.\r\n<em>“In his 1975 essay, The Loser’s Game, </em><strong><em>Charles Ellis</em></strong><em> calls professional tennis a “Winner’s Game.” While there is some degree of skill and luck involved, the game is generally determined by the actions of the winner.</em>\r\n<em>Amateur tennis is an entirely different game. Not in how it is played or the rules but, rather, in how it’s won. Long and powerful rallies are generally a thing of the past. Mistakes are frequent. Balls are constantly hit into nets or out of bounds. Double faults are nearly as common as faults.</em>\r\n<em>The amateur duffer seldom beats his opponent, but he beats himself all the time. The victor in this game of tennis gets a higher score than the opponent, but he gets that higher score because his opponent is losing even more points.</em>\r\n<em>….The point is that most of us are amateurs but we refuse to believe it.</em>\r\n<em>This is a problem because we’re often playing the game of the professionals. What we should do in this case, when we’re the amateur, is to invert the problem. Rather than trying to win, we should avoid losing.</em>\r\n<em>This was a point <strong><u>Charlie Munger</u></strong>, the billionaire business partner of Warren Buffett, made a long time ago.</em>\r\n<em>In a letter to Wesco Shareholders, where he was at the time Chairman (and found in the excellent Damn Right!: Behind the Scenes with Berkshire Hathaway Billionaire Charlie Munger), Munger writes: Wesco continues to try more to profit from always remembering the obvious than from grasping the esoteric….It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent. There must be some wisdom in the folk saying, `It’s the strong swimmers who drown.”’</em>', 'Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1586-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '2019-11-06 10:02:33', '', 1586, 'https://marcellus.in/1586-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2216, 1, '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> June edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAmerican fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1584-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '2019-11-06 10:09:17', '', 1584, 'https://marcellus.in/1584-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2217, 1, '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '<strong><em>Featured in the 3<sup>rd</sup> March edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nMorgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n<em>“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”</em>\r\n<em>This is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.</em>\r\n<em>What is unique?</em>\r\n<em>One of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.</em>\r\n<em>A few things that help you get there.</em>\r\n<em><strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong></em><em> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..</em>\r\n<em><strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Some problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.</em>\r\n<em><strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong></em><em> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.</em>\r\n<em><strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong></em><em> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”</em>\r\n<em>The latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring: A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1582-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '2019-11-06 10:10:58', '', 1582, 'https://marcellus.in/1582-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2218, 1, '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '<strong><em>Featured in the 2<sup>nd</sup> December edition of 3L&amp;3S</em></strong>\r\n\r\nAs a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1576-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '2019-11-06 10:12:10', '', 1576, 'https://marcellus.in/1576-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2219, 1, '2019-11-06 10:16:56', '2019-11-06 10:16:56', 'William Shakespeare famously wrote in <em>Romeo and Juliet</em> “What\'s in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” Turns out, there is actually a lot that can be gathered from the name, at least going by Rishabh Srivastava’s big data analytics story on Scroll. Rishabh is the founder of Loki.ai, as the name suggests an AI focused company. Loki.ai has analysed more than 100 million names from publicly available sources to develop algorithms that predict audience demographics including age, affluence, ethnicity, etc and that is making its way into how marketeers and lenders scan the vast population to target the right audience for their products and services.\r\n<em>“Is someone named Rhea Ahluwalia more likely to be affluent than someone named Panna Lal? If your instinctive answer was “Yes”, you would – ceteris paribus – be right. Indian names, both first and last, contain enormous signalling value. They can be used by marketers, analysts and entrepreneurs to assess the affluence, age, ethnicity and gender distributions of their audience.</em>\r\n<em><strong>Age prediction: </strong></em><em>Intuitively, most Indians recognise that names such as Shubham and Rishabh are younger and more modern names, while names like Om and Shashi are older names. We quantified this by creating an age histogram for individual names. For instance, a cursory look at the graph below shows that the name Abhishek skews young. We used the skew of these histograms to create an age-index for each first name in India. The lower the age-index for a name, the younger a name is likely to be. The graph below shows the age-index for selected names….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Affluence estimation: </strong></em><em>We also overlaid electoral roll data with data scraped from property sites to discover correlations between where different communities lived and where property and rental prices were the highest. For instance, property prices in Bankner in Delhi are far lower than property prices in areas like Rajouri Gardens and Rohini. We could draw correlations between these prices and the distributions of different communities in these areas. The image below, for instance, lists the nine most common surnames in selected communities in Delhi….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Ethnicity prediction: </strong></em><em>Rishabh Srivastava, my name, is highly likely to be that of a North Indian, while a name like Ronojoy Sen is highly likely to be that of someone who is ethnically Bengali….</em>\r\n<em><strong>Applications: </strong></em><em>We built these tools mostly as a fun learning project, but have since learnt that they have a number of commercially useful applications. Using names can help brands measure the demographics and affluence of their audience, as well as that of the publishers they advertise with. Similarly, publishers can use names to find out what kind of stories attract what kind of audiences….Calculating the affluence index of users acquired from campaigns in real time can help brand stop a campaign that acquires the wrong kinds of users before too many marketing dollars have been spent. Name analytics can also be used by e-commerce and content websites to target specific demographics with specific campaigns. For example, Marathi users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Ganesh Chaturthi. Similarly, Bengali users can be targeted with campaigns linked to Durga Puja.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Can an algorithm determine just how rich an Indian is merely from their name?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1564-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:16:56', '2019-11-06 10:16:56', '', 1564, 'https://marcellus.in/1564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2220, 1, '2019-11-06 10:18:07', '2019-11-06 10:18:07', 'This should bring cheer to those disappointed with the beef bans in places across India. The plant-based meat technology has received a shot in the arm with the USFDA clearing the use of soy leghemoglobin, a protein-based color additive uses to make the Impossible Burger “bleed” like real meat. This piece by Rowan Jacobsen in Outside, captures the significant strides made by the plant-based meat industry  led by \"start-ups\" like Beyond Meat and Impossible Burger, recent times that one can in the near future look to savour a juicy burger yet stay vegetarian and environment friendly.\r\n<em>“Part of the appeal of the new burgers is their smaller environmental footprint. Beef is the most wasteful food on the planet. Cows are not optimized to make meat; they’re optimized to be cows. It takes 36,000 calories of feed to produce 1,000 calories of beef. In the process, it uses more than 430 gallons of water and 1,500 square feet of land, and it generates nearly ten kilograms of greenhouse-gas emissions. In comparison, an Impossible Burger <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9b9193b2e8&amp;e=5648501957\">uses</a> 87 percent less water, 96 percent less land, and produces 89 percent fewer greenhouse-gas emissions. Beyond Meat’s footprint is similarly svelte.</em>\r\n<em>..By 2018, sales of both the Beyond Burger and the Impossible Burger were surging, and the companies began to ink deals with restaurant chains. Beyond Meat got Carl’s Jr. and A&amp;W (as well as supermarket chains like Food Lion and Safeway), while Impossible got White Castle. They’re coming back at Del Taco, too, which launched a Beyond Meat taco in April. Within two months, it had sold two million, one of the most successful product launches in its history, so it decided to add Beyond Meat burritos as well. And then there’s Burger King. The second-largest fast-food chain in the world rattled big beef’s cage by testing an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=03da23d5af&amp;e=5648501957\">Impossible Whopper in St. Louis</a> in April. Resulting</em> <em>foot traffic was so strong that Burger King decided to serve the Impossible Whopper in all 7,200 restaurants, marking the moment when alt meat stopped being alt. </em>\r\n<em>…As this shift accelerates, the beef industry will lose its last advantage—price. Most offerings made with Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods are about a buck a burger more expensive. But it’s inherently cheaper to make a burger directly out of plants than it is to feed those plants to an animal first. Beef is currently cheaper because of scale. Big food companies can negotiate tremendously reduced prices for feed, and gigantic factories and supply chains are much more efficient to run.</em>\r\n<em>But the playing field is leveling fast. Last week, Dunkin’ announced a new Beyond Sausage breakfast sandwich that will be just 14 cents more than the meat version. But more than anything Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods has accomplished, the true death knell for the cattlemen is how the mainstream food industry has embraced</em> <em>alt meat. Whole Foods just announced it will start selling burgers from the UK-based startup the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=47bbe3a049&amp;e=5648501957\">Meatless Farm</a> in all of its stores. Nestlé is launching its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=991729e3f7&amp;e=5648501957\">Awesome Burger</a> this fall. Tyson Foods, America’s largest meat producer, just debuted its own plant-based nuggets, with more products to come.\" </em>\r\n<em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6dc28517c1&amp;e=5648501957\">Recent projections</a> suggest that 60 percent of the meat eaten in 2040 will be alt, a figure I think may actually be too conservative. An estimated 95 percent of the people buying alt burgers are meat-eaters. This is not about making vegetarians happy. It’s not even about climate change. This is a battle for America’s flame-broiled soul. Meat is about to break free from its animal past. As traditional meat companies embrace alt meat with the fervor of the just converted, making it cheap and ubiquitious, it’s unclear if Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods can survive the feeding frenzy (though Impossible’s patents on its core IP may help)..”</em>', 'This Is the Beginning of the End of the Beef Industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1562-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:18:07', '2019-11-06 10:18:07', '', 1562, 'https://marcellus.in/1562-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2221, 1, '2019-11-06 10:22:30', '2019-11-06 10:22:30', 'At the core of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders investment philosophy is identifying monopolistic franchises which dominate their industries for long periods of time. Therefore, the returns from the stocks in those sectors are also likely to be concentrated around these monopolies. Commentators on the Indian stock market have also recently lamented that returns have been restricted to a handful of stocks and how there is no ‘market breadth’. Turns out we are not the only concentrated market in the world and it isn’t a recent phenomenon either. Barry Ritholtz, in this piece for Bloomberg refers to a research paper by Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University to say that the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.\r\nResearcher Hendrik looked at 62,000 global stocks from 1990 to 2018 and figured out that the best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation. Another data point shown is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.\r\n<em>“The winner-take-all phenomenon is well-documented among sports stars, pop singers, fiction authors, actors and hedge-fund managers -- those at the top reap fabulous rewards while everyone else scrapes to get by. It turns out the same hold true in the stock market: Just 1.3% of the world’s public companies account for all the market gains during the past three decades. Outside the U.S., the gains are even more concentrated, with less than 1% of all equities driving all of the net appreciation in share prices. Those numbers come from a new study on equities, and how their gains are distributed. Ardent stock pickers who read the paper might find themselves turned into indexers as a result of what they see. The lead author of the paper, Hendrik Bessembinder of the Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, and the rest of his researchers looked at 62,000 global common stocks from 1990 to 2018, and ranked them on a compounded, total-return basis. That period includes two decade-long market expansions, from 1990 to 2000 and 2009 through 2018, as well as two major market crashes in 2000 and 2008. These periods, encompassing bear and bull cycles, make it less likely that the findings are due to anomalies or one-off events. The data analysis reveals the net gains for equities can be found in a small group of outliers -- and much fewer in number than is commonly thought of by most market participants.  </em>\r\n<em>Just five companies -- Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.Com Inc., Alphabet Inc. (Google) and Exxon Mobil Corp. -- accounted for 8.3% of global net wealth creation. It is hard to imagine a greater example of the winner-take-all distribution -- these five companies account for just 0.008% of the total sample set of 62,000 publicly traded companies. Expand that to the top 0.5%, or 306 companies, and they account for 73% of global net wealth creation. The best performing 811 companies (1.33% of the total) accounted for all net global wealth creation.</em>\r\n<em>Let’s translate those percentages into dollar amounts: During that 1990-2018 period, those companies accounted for the entire net stock market appreciation of $44.7 trillion, in excess of Treasury returns. Outside the U.S., less than 1% of international equities generated $16 trillion in capital appreciation, also in excess of Treasury returns. Less than half of the stocks in the study -- 23,905 -- had cumulative positive returns. When added to the top gainers, these stocks generated $66.6 trillion of wealth. However, a majority of stocks -- 37,195, or 60.9% -- were net money losers, subtracting a $21.83 trillion from the total. The total gains of winners minus losers netted out to that $44.7 trillion figure. Concentration of stock returns was not the original focus of the research; ironically, the study sought to determine how many stocks managed to outperform bonds over shorter time frames. The discovery of the intense market concentration seems to be a happy accident. The researchers found during shorter periods of time, about 56% of U.S. stocks and 61% of international stocks, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills. In any given month, only 43.7% of U.S. stocks, and 39.3% of non-U.S. stocks, outperformed the accumulated returns of one-month Treasury bills over the full sample period of 29 years. We can shrug at that data point: after all, stocks are long-term investments and we really shouldn\'t care very much about any given month’s returns. It’s the compounding, especially with dividends re-invested, that investors and savers should be thinking about. Still, this was yet another datapoint I found surprising.</em>\r\n<em>Another data point is obvious: the longer buy-and-hold investors retained their equities, the greater the outperformance relative to Treasury bills. It is about 1% for any one month on average, about 14% for a year, 95% for a decade and a giant 260% for the 29-year sample period.  This isn’t necessarily all bad news for active investors; some of the data could be encouraging or even u seful to stock pickers. One revelation might be that active managers should consider focusing less on being stock pickers, and more on being “stock-unpickers” -- in other words, avoiding the dogs. Identifying the characteristics of those 37,195 long-term money-losers -- what quantitative characteristics do they share that could be screened out -- might be useful. This is a common practice for quants, but the sheer number of money-losing stocks makes one wonder if that approach is being fully exploited. If screens could eliminate some of the long-term losers, it might not only improve returns, but could help to justify fees higher than simple indexing. Others might interpret the study as revealing yet another advantage of indexing: Not only are low costs and beta (market-matching performance) an indexing given, but the research suggests that investors who index broadly may be more likely to hold the rare and outsized winners that drive much of the market gains over time.”</em>', 'Winner-Take-All Phenomenon Rules the Stock Market, Too', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1560-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:22:30', '2019-11-06 10:22:30', '', 1560, 'https://marcellus.in/1560-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2222, 1, '2019-11-06 10:24:03', '2019-11-06 10:24:03', 'Indian auto stocks have taken a serious beating off late with concerns not just on the current cyclical decline in sales (perhaps the industry’s worst ever downturn) but also the threat of disruptions for the future – electric, autonomous, ride-sharing, etc. Well, the concerns are global in nature and perhaps the history of automobiles  can provide some cues. In this thoroughly enjoyable read, Nathan Heller looks at two books on the automobile industry to help understand America’s association with the automobile over the years, its impact  on society, culture, politics in general and perhaps extend this evolution into the future to get a sense which way we are headed. The two books Nathan discusses in this piece are Dan Albert’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72c3da125b&amp;e=5648501957\">Are We There Yet?: The American Automobile Past, Present, and Driverless</a>,”  and Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85a37e7a6e&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>”.\r\nIt is fascinating to know from Albert that indeed, electric cars were not just a reality as early as the beginning of the 20<sup>th</sup> century but were considered the mainstay. Not just that, the first adoption of mass market use of automobiles was in ride sharing mode. Now, over a century later, both ideas of electric cars and ride sharing are back in the reckoning. As Albert explains, how privately-owned gasoline powered cars took off eventually turns out to be an absolute random event.\r\n<em>“….in the late nineteenth century, electric cars and gasoline cars developed side by side. One assumes that electrics were only notionally in the running at this stage. Surprisingly, Albert reports, gas cars were the B-fleet for years.</em>\r\n<em>Turn-of-the-century electric cars were more maneuverable than their gasoline-powered counterparts. They had faster acceleration, better braking, and powerful torque, which compensated for the heft of their batteries. They set land-speed records—in 1902, an electric car briefly attained an astonishing hundred and two miles per hour—and, unlike internal-combustion vehicles, didn’t sputter out in traffic and need to be cranked up in the middle of the road…. </em>\r\n<em>“The internal-combustion car that had to be coaxed and muscled to life, with its lubes and explosions and thrusting pistons, that would be the car for men,” Albert writes. Electrics—quiet, practical, and, in one engineer’s estimation, “tame”—took on female associations. Not for the last time, the makers of gas cars didn’t so much win the market as create a market they could win. The triumph of gas engines entailed a shift in the whole transportation model—from shared cars to privately owned cars, from an extension of the metropolitan network to a vehicle that required infrastructure of its own. “Had this period of random technological mutation selected for the electric, the social history of America would be unrecognizable,” Albert notes”</em>\r\n<em>…A clearer way to think about the future can be found in Samuel I. Schwartz’s “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fdaf7c74bc&amp;e=5648501957\">No One at the Wheel: Driverless Cars and the Road of the Future</a>,” written with Karen Kelly. Schwartz is known to New Yorkers of a certain age as Gridlock Sam, owing to his role, in the nineteen-eighties, as New York City’s traffic commissioner and, later, as the Department of Transportation’s chief engineer. It was he who took credit for turning the West Side Highway from a groaning overpass to a riverside boulevard. He also implemented early bike lanes and, in 1971, designed the failed “red zone,” which would have banned cars in midtown from late morning to midafternoon. Schwartz approaches the future much as he approaches traffic—as a complex, dynamic system—and his book emerges as a clearheaded bible for the twenty-first-century road. Historically, he argues, planning favored car interests over “actual traffic habits.” With driverless cars zooming into view, he sees a chance to do the planning properly for the first time.</em>\r\n<em>….Many drivers regard autonomous cars as a pervert technology, like sex robots or Nespresso machines, and plan to reject the things as soon as they show up. In reality, self-driving cars are likely to overtake the market through a gradual shift in norms and features, a process that, Albert and Schwartz agree, has already begun. Many drivers today cede way-finding to apps like Waze, which draws on the hive-mind intelligence of other vehicles to ease bottlenecks and dodge perils. Some cars now brake to avoid collision if the driver fails to, and many ping at you, like a better driver in the back seat, if you drift too close to danger.</em>\r\n<em>This human-proofing, far from throwing off the rhythms of the road, has increased safety, by most evidence, which is no surprise. Commercial airplanes are what we’d call self-driving except at takeoff and landing, and the result is that it’s now nearly impossible for a cruising jet to fall out of the sky without malice or a series of compounding errors by the pilots. (Lethal computer glitches are so rare that if they appear even twice among tens of millions of flights, as in the case of Boeing’s 737 max 8, the industry goes into crisis.) People get the willies at the idea of putting their lives in the hands of computers, but there’s every reason to think that, as far as transportation goes, we’re safer in their care.”</em>', 'Was the Automotive Era a Terrible Mistake?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1558-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:24:03', '2019-11-06 10:24:03', '', 1558, 'https://marcellus.in/1558-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2223, 1, '2019-11-06 10:33:58', '2019-11-06 10:33:58', 'This well written article says that American corporations are spending trillions of dollars to repurchase their own stock. <em>“The practice is enriching CEOs—at the expense of everyone else.”</em>\r\nIt wasn’t always thus – buybacks are a recent fad. <em>“Before the 1980s, corporations rarely repurchased shares of their own stock. When they started to, it was typically a defensive move intended to fend off raiders, who were drawn to cash piles on a company’s balance sheet. By contrast, according to Federal Reserve data compiled by Goldman Sachs, over the past nine years, corporations have put more money into their own stocks—an astonishing $3.8 trillion—than every other type of investor (individuals, mutual funds, pension funds, foreign investors) combined.”</em>\r\nSo why do companies buyback their own shares? Finance 101 says that <em>“By reducing the number of shares outstanding in the market, a buyback lifts the price of each remaining share.”</em> But the challenge is that this share price spike is shortlived. <em>“A study by the research firm Fortuna Advisors found that, five years out, the stocks of companies that engaged in heavy buybacks performed worse for shareholders than the stocks of companies that didn’t.”</em>\r\nThe real reason that companies do buybacks has nothing to do with shareholders. <em>“One class of shareholder, however, has benefited greatly from the temporary price jumps: the managers who initiate buybacks and are privy to their exact scope and timing. Last year, SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Jr. instructed his staff to “take a look at how buybacks affect how much skin executives keep in the game.” This analysis revealed that in the eight days following a buyback announcement, executives on average sold five times as much stock as they had on an ordinary day. “Thus,” Jackson said, “executives personally capture the benefit of the short-term stock-price pop created by the buyback announcement.””</em>\r\nThe article goes on to give some great examples of what look like seriously questionable buybacks: <em>“Today, the abuse of stock buybacks is so widespread that naming abusers is a bit like singling out snowflakes for ruining the driveway. But somebody needs to be called out.</em>\r\n<em>So take Craig Menear, the chairman and CEO of Home Depot. On a conference call with investors in February 2018, he and his team mentioned their “plan to repurchase approximately $4 billion of outstanding shares during the year.” The next day, he sold 113,687 shares, netting $18 million.* The following day, he was granted 38,689 new shares, and promptly unloaded 24,286 shares for a profit of $4.5 million. Though Menear’s stated compensation in SEC filings was $11.4 million for 2018, stock sales helped him earn an additional $30 million for the year.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, the median worker pay at Home Depot is $23,000 a year. If the money spent on buybacks had been used to boost salaries, the Roosevelt Institute and the National Employment Law Project calculated, each worker would have made an additional $18,000 a year. But buybacks are more than just unfair. They’re myopic. Amazon (which hasn’t repurchased a share in seven years) is presently making the sort of investments in people, technology, and products that could eventually make Home Depot irrelevant. When that happens, Home Depot will probably wish it hadn’t spent all those billions to buy back 35 percent of its shares. “When you’ve got a mature company, when everything seems to be going smoothly, that’s the exact moment you need to start worrying Jeff Bezos is going to start eating your lunch,” the shareholder activist Nell Minow told me.”</em>', 'The Stock-Buyback Swinde', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1556-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:33:58', '2019-11-06 10:33:58', '', 1556, 'https://marcellus.in/1556-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2224, 1, '2019-11-06 10:42:58', '2019-11-06 10:42:58', 'For those who claim climate change is a myth, this summer’s global heatwave should have busted it without doubt. Last week, Kuwait recorded the world’s hottest temperatures with almost 63 degrees Celsius under direct sunlight. There are reports of cars melting in Saudi. In India too, 36 lives have been lost to the heat wave. Here’s a story about India’s hottest place – Churu and how residents here manage to fight the heat.\r\n<em>“The heat wave has claimed 36 lives in India this year. None of these casualties was from Churu, despite its extreme weather. This is partly because of the people’s resilience and partly owing to the measures the administration has taken.</em>\r\n<em>The district administration has directed hospitals to treat patients suffering from heat stroke as a result of loo (the dry, dusty summer wind from the west that blows over North India) as emergency cases. It has advised Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act workers to start early, at 6 am instead of 10 am, and return home by 2 pm. Advisories ask people to stay indoors between noon and 3 pm, and also warn against making beasts of burden toil during these hours.</em>\r\n<em>“People here have raabdi, which aids the enzymes allowing the body to adjust to the weather. Even Border Security Force jawans have it.” Raabdi is prepared by mixing the flour of bajra (pearl millet) and moth beans with chaach, to which water is added. When the temperature soars, the gruel is kept out in the sun. The froth is separated from the fermented mix, which is then cooked and kept overnight. Many, in rural areas especially, start the day with this drink mixed with chaach, cumin seeds and salt. Locals claim it’s the best way to protect oneself from the loo. With its sour flavour, it is similar to an alcoholic drink that can induce sound sleep, they add.</em>\r\n<em>Since the Indira Gandhi Canal closed for repairs from March-end to April, the administration has been monitoring water provisioning for the peak summer months. Nayak says that except for a crisis in some interior areas, there is no shortage of drinking water in Churu. The only infrastructural problem, he adds, is posed to the grid substations where power lines risk catching fire if the mercury shoots to 50 and above, as it has this year. “So every hour, we have a power cut to ease pressure on the substations.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How people keep their cool during summer in Churu, India’s hottest place', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1316-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:42:58', '2019-11-06 10:42:58', '', 1316, 'https://marcellus.in/1316-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2225, 1, '2019-11-06 10:45:00', '2019-11-06 10:45:00', 'Whilst POTUS pursues his wall building ambitions, here is a heart-warming story about how a first generation Mexican immigrant who dropped out of fourth grade, went on from being a janitor at Frito Lay to Vice President. A story of self belief and the will to succeed through a pursuit of excellence best captured by this advice from his grandfather when he got the janitor’s job<em> “…his grandfather imparted a piece of advice that would always stick with him: “Make sure that floor shines,” the man told his grandson. “And let them know that a Montañez mopped it.” Montañez decided he was going to be the “best janitor Frito-Lay had ever seen” — and he quickly made his presence known. “Every time someone walked into a room, it would smell fresh,” he says. “I realized there’s no such thing as ‘just a janitor’ when you believe you’re going to be the best.”</em>\r\n<em>“On an early morning in the late 1980s, a group of the highest-powered executives at Frito-Lay — the CEO, CMO, and a platoon of VPs — gathered in a California conference room to hear what Richard Montañez had to say. Montañez didn’t share their pedigree. He wasn’t an executive. He had no fancy degree. He had a 4th-grade-level education, and couldn’t read or write. Montañez was a janitor. But he was a janitor with an idea — an idea that would make the company billions of dollars and become one of history’s most celebrated and iconic snack foods: Flamin’ Hot Cheetos. But first, he had to convince the world to hear him out.</em>\r\n<em>…Today, Flamin’ Hot Cheetos are one of Frito-Lay’s hottest-selling commodities — a multi-billion-dollar snack celebrated by everyone from Katy Perry to middle-schoolers on meal vouchers. There’s even a rap song about them. And Montañez is no longer sweeping floors: Over a 35-year career, the former janitor rose through the corporate ranks and is now the vice president of multicultural sales for PepsiCo America (the holding company of Frito-Lay). Before Montañez joined the executive team, Frito-Lay had only 3 Cheeto products; since then, the company has launched more than 20, each worth $300m+.</em>\r\n<em>Recognized by Newsweek and Fortune as one of the most influential Hispanic leaders in America, Montañez is a gifted speaker who often tours the country giving keynotes. And soon, his story will hit the silver screen: Fox Searchlight Pictures is currently working on a biopic about his life, appropriately titled “Flamin’ Hot.” He still lives in Rancho Cucamonga, where he gives back to his community through a nonprofit he launched and teaches MBA classes at a nearby college. Recently, a student asked him how he was teaching without a Ph.D. “I do have a Ph.D.,” he responded. “I’ve been poor, hungry and determined.””</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How a janitor at Frito-Lay invented Flamin’ Hot Cheetos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1311-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:45:00', '2019-11-06 10:45:00', '', 1311, 'https://marcellus.in/1311-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2226, 1, '2019-11-06 10:50:02', '2019-11-06 10:50:02', 'In our Consistent Compounders portfolio, we try and identify companies with significant competitive advantages to the extent that some of them are quasi monopolies except that much of the competitive edge is built on supreme efficiencies which keeps their customers better off as opposed to monopolistic trade practices. In this Feb’ 18 piece in the Medium, Malcolm Harris features Amazon on similar lines where dominance of the marketplace such as that for books built on clockwork efficiencies has actually delivered immense value to the consumer. <em>“…All 10 or so bookstores I frequented as a high school and college student have closed, yet our access to books has improved — at least as far as we seem to be able to measure. It’s hard to expect consumers to feel bad enough about that to change our behaviour”. </em>Yet Malcolm’s point is less about value to the consumer as much as it is about how Amazon’s efficiencies have hurt labour and wages. Malcolm compares Amazon to a communist styled planned economy as opposed to a product of a free market economy albeit one that has crushed labour.\r\n<em>“From a financial point of view, Amazon doesn’t behave much like a successful 21st-century company. Amazon has not bought back its own stock since 2012. Amazon has never offered its shareholders a dividend. Unlike its peers Google, Apple, and Facebook, Amazon does not hoard cash. It has only recently started to record small, predictable profits. Instead, whenever it has resources, Amazon invests in capacity, which results in growth at a ridiculous clip. When the company found itself with $13.8 billion lying around, it bought a grocery chain for $13.7 billion… More than a profit-seeking corporation, Amazon is behaving like a planned economy.</em><em>\r\n…Although they attempt to grow in a single direction, planned economies always destroy as well as build. In the 1930s, the Soviet Union compelled the collectivization of kulaks, or prosperous peasants. Small farms were incorporated into a larger collective agricultural system. Depending on who you ask, dekulakization was literal genocide, comparable to the Holocaust, and/or it catapulted what had been a continent-sized expanse of peasants into a modern superpower. Amazon’s decimation of small businesses (bookstores in particular) is a similar sort of collectivization, purging small proprietors or driving them onto Amazon platforms. The process is decentralized and executed by the market rather than the state, but don’t get confused: Whether or not Bezos is banging on his desk, demanding the extermination of independent booksellers — though he probably is — these are top-down decisions to eliminate particular ways of life.\r\nResponding to reports that Amazon will begin offering free two-hour Whole Foods delivery for Prime customers, BuzzFeed’s Tom Gara tweeted, “Stuff like this suggests Amazon is going to remove every cent of profit from the grocery industry.” Free two-hour grocery delivery is ludicrously convenient, perhaps the most convenient thing Amazon has come up with yet. And why should we consumers pay for huge dividends to Kroger shareholders? Fuck ’em; if Bezos has the discipline to stick to the growth plan instead of stuffing shareholder pockets every quarter, then let him eat their lunch. Despite a business model based on eliminating competition, Amazon has avoided attention from antitrust authorities because prices are down. If consumers are better off, who cares if it’s a monopoly? American antitrust law doesn’t exist to protect kulaks, whether they’re selling books or groceries.\r\n…From the perspective of the average consumer, it’s hard to beat Amazon. The single-minded focus on efficiency and growth has worked, and delivery convenience is perhaps the one area of American life that has kept up with our past expectations for the future. However, we do not make the passage from cradle to grave as mere average consumers. Take a look at package delivery, for example: Amazon’s latest disruptive announcement is “Shipping with Amazon,” a challenge to the USPS, from which Amazon has been conniving preferential rates. As a government agency bound to serve everyone, the Postal Service has had to accept all sorts of inefficiencies, like free delivery for rural customers or subsidized media distribution to realize freedom of the press. Amazon, on the other hand, is a private company that doesn’t really have to do anything it doesn’t want to do. In aggregate, as average consumers, we should be cheering. Maybe we are. But as members of a national community, I hope we stop to ask if efficiency is all we want from our delivery infrastructure. Lowering costs as far as possible sounds good until you remember that one of those costs is labor. One of those costs is us.\r\nJust because a plan is efficient doesn’t mean it’s good. Postal Service employees are unionized; they have higher wages, paths for advancement, job stability, negotiated grievance procedures, health benefits, vacation time, etc. Amazon delivery drivers are not and do not. That difference counts as efficiency when we measure by price, and that is, to my mind, a very good argument for not handing the world over to the king of efficiency. The question that remains is whether we have already been too far reduced, whether after being treated as consumers and costs, we might still have it in us to be more, because that’s what it will take to wrench society away from Bezos and from the people who have made him look like a reasonable alternative.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Singular Pursuit of Comrade Bezos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1309-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:50:02', '2019-11-06 10:50:02', '', 1309, 'https://marcellus.in/1309-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2227, 1, '2019-11-06 10:52:36', '2019-11-06 10:52:36', 'In order to meet clients, we often have to travel to smaller towns in India with population below 1mn. One of the most noticeable things about these small towns is how much harder it has become in the last couple of years to get cash from ATMs. Initially, we used to think this was because of demonetisation. Two years on we realised that something more fundamental has happened. This article describes the same phenomenon in the more remote parts of Scotland. Basically, what’s happening is the opposite of “network effects” i.e. as in the busy parts of the country, people are replacing cash with digital money, it is become less and less viable for banks to run ATMs and branches. However, since the banks dare not pull back significantly on ATMs and branches in the big cities, they are doing so in the countryside where, unfortunately, people are less able – due to age, literacy, etc – to migrate to digital money. This article’s description of the Scottish countryside is likely to soon apply to swathes of the Indian countryside.\r\n<em>“An average of 460 cash machines vanished every month in 2018, and the country has fewer than 8,000 bank branches now, down from nearly 18,000 in 1989. Around 1,500 previously banked towns no longer have one.</em>\r\n<em>The angst in these villages and towns shows that a swath of people can’t, or don’t want to, leave the analog world behind, even as the number of ways to manage money online is exploding. And they have a point: Research shows that online finance isn’t yet a full replacement for its physical predecessor. Banks like RBS, Lloyds, and Barclays, meanwhile, are under pressure from impatient shareholders to cut costs, as digital rivals brag about their lack of costly physical branch networks.</em>\r\n<em>In banks’ eagerness to embrace more profitable digital alternatives, they are scrapping branches and ATMs faster than society is ready for. As they retreat, the UK is becoming a laboratory for what the rest of the developed world can expect as financial apps rise and storefronts get boarded up”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Scotland is on the front line in the fight against “cash deserts”', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1307-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:52:36', '2019-11-06 10:52:36', '', 1307, 'https://marcellus.in/1307-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2228, 1, '2019-11-06 10:54:24', '2019-11-06 10:54:24', 'In this article, authors Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik, give a preview of their own book which describes the transformation of this baseball team from Houston from being one of the worst teams in the league to one the best. The book called “The MVP Machine: How Baseball’s New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players” tells <em>“the behind-the-scenes story of the players, coaches, and teams that are driving baseball’s current revolution in player development, which is transforming the sport from the Moneyball model of finding preexisting talent to one in which teams are competing to create talent…Houston Astros, who have used new techniques and technology to maximize players’ potential.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly have the Astros done which is so revolutionary? There seem to be at least 3 ingredients to the Astros’ success: (a) Using analytics to tell players which of their balls to throw and which not to throw; (b) Using analytics to select the right kind of players i.e. those who throw certain types of ball which historical data crunching shows work more often that not; (c) Encouraging players to change their game in favour of doing things which analytics show have a high probability of success. In short, <em>“the Astros implemented a model for finding and developing players that would be self-sustaining”.</em>\r\nIn consonance with this model, the Astros’ junior teams dominate the minor leagues as well (where, presumably, their matches produce more data for their number crunchers to sift through).\r\nAs you would expect from a team with such an unusual operating model <em>“the Astros aren’t led by lifelong baseball men. Luhnow was a McKinsey consultant before Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt Jr. hired him as a scouting executive to help the Cards catch up to the sabermetric movement. Sig Mejdal, a Moneyball disciple Luhnow hired to head up the team’s newly formed analytics department in 2005, was a former part-time blackjack dealer who went on to collect a long list of degrees and work as an engineer for Lockheed Martin and NASA. Mejdal’s amateur-player projections, which were based on painstakingly assembled college stats…The Astros’ string of spectacular successes in data-driven player development started in earnest in 2013, propelled in part by the 2012 hiring of Mike Fast as a front-office analyst. Fast, a tech engineer with a physics degree, started producing baseball analysis on his personal blog in 2007, then climbed the hierarchy of sabermetric sites. His pioneering PITCHf/x analyses soon drew the attention of teams, and the Astros spirited him out of the public sphere not long after Baseball Prospectus published his most influential article, a September 2011 piece that conclusively demonstrated the impact of pitch-framing.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Houston Astros Disrupted Player Development to Become the Model MLB Franchise', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1305-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 10:54:24', '2019-11-06 10:54:24', '', 1305, 'https://marcellus.in/1305-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2229, 1, '2019-11-06 11:06:28', '2019-11-06 11:06:28', 'The car industry in Germany is being pounded on multiple fronts and its plight could well be a precursor of what might happen elsewhere in the world. The problems are coming from four directions:\r\n\r\n(a) In February, a federal court said that diesel car bans are an effective way of reducing air pollution. Next year, comprehensive bans will kick in on diesel engines in big cities like Frankfurt, Berlin and Stuttgart.\r\n\r\n(b) In the escalating trade war between USA and China, German carmarkers are highly exposed because they invested heavily in building plants in America which export cars to China. These cars are now subject to a 40% tariff.\r\n\r\n(c) The German car industry’s technological superiority is based around the combustion engine. It does not have an edge either in electric battery technology nor in the software that goes into electric cars. The Chinese and the Americas lead the world in these new technologies. Furthermore, the outsourcing of production for electric cars and their components is also happening in Asia, not Europe.\r\n\r\n(d) Tesla now outsells both BMW and Mercedes in the US. Tesla’s non-US sales are now higher than Jaguar and Porsche. Tesla is gradually becoming a serious challenger in the global luxury car market. Time therefore seems to be running out for the German giants.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Germany’s profitable automakers are being hit quicker than expected by the adoption of electric vehicles, diesel bans and the US-China trade war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1030-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:06:28', '2019-11-06 11:06:28', '', 1030, 'https://marcellus.in/1030-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2230, 1, '2019-11-06 11:07:41', '2019-11-06 11:07:41', 'Last year, Coca-Cola launched its first alcoholic beverage in Japan partly to make up for the dwindling sales as the trend to stay away from sugary drinks gains strength. Turns out that people are now giving up drinking alcohol too. This piece in the CNN talks about how a combination of the need to take care of health, and companies and investors, especially in the start-up powered Silicon Valley, sobering down on the alcoholic part of their free will culture, people are turning teetotallers, resulting in the emergence of ‘sober bars’ to alcohol companies launching non-alcoholic beverages.\r\n“Getaway is a sober bar, a new kind of dry nightlife option that is cropping up in New York City. The idea is to provide outlets for people who want to socialize in a bar-like location, but without having to drink alcohol.\r\nThey are part of larger trend. People are paying <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3b990d9a3&amp;e=5648501957\">greater attention</a> to their mental health and wellness, and many Americans are specifically looking to reduce their alcohol intake. People of all ages are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5baa095964&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less beer</a>, while millennials are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=604cb22efa&amp;e=5648501957\">drinking less overall</a>. And Silicon Valley is taking note, with tech companies reevaluating their alcohol policies and investors looking to capitalize on people who prefer not to drink.\r\n…Their <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=49a800acb7&amp;e=5648501957\">sales of alcoholic beverages</a> have been <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=188be3725b&amp;e=5648501957\">declining</a>, big alcohol companies, ranging from Heineken to AB InBev (the owner of popular beer brands such as Budweiser), see an opportunity: They’re<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=014ec49908&amp;e=5648501957\"> investing in non-</a>, or low-alcohol drinks. So too, startup investors and entrepreneurs are hoping to cater to the “sober curious,” people who for the sake of wellness are reevaluating their relationships with alcohol and how often they drink.\r\nKin’s first product is a non-alcoholic beverage called “High Rhode.” It is part adaptogen (a nontoxic plant that is claimed to have de-stressing effects), part nootropics (a supplement said to help with cognitive functions), and part botanics.\r\n…  <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c20b2aad9a&amp;e=5648501957\">Liquid Death</a> made waves when it launched. The startup applies the bold marketing of energy drinks to a water-in-a-can beverage. Its tagline is “Murder Your Thirst.” Like an alcohol brand, it has an age gate on its website that says, “This water may give nightmares to persons under 18 years of age.”\r\nThe idea is to make consumers look cool while they keep hydrated, and to the unsuspecting eye, one may never know they’re downing simple H2O.\r\nThe original impetus, according to CEO and co-founder Mike Cessario, was to cater to heavy metal and punk rock fans. But the ability to drink water out of a can (which is more ecofriendly than plastic) and look like you’re drinking a beer or an energy drink, has broader appeal.”\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'People are sick of drinking. Investors are betting on the ‘sober curious’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1329-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:07:41', '2019-11-06 11:07:41', '', 1329, 'https://marcellus.in/1329-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2231, 1, '2019-11-06 11:19:34', '2019-11-06 11:19:34', '<em>It is often said that likelier route to achieving financial independence is not so much in generating superlative returns as much in having a disciplined approach to saving. This applies even more so for sports superstars who often at a very young age tend to earn big bucks, quickly get on to a lavish lifestyle forgetting that their earnings period is short lived as their bodies age and their skills are no longer valued. This NYT piece talks about the unlikeliest of places – the NBA known for the extravagant lifestyles of its star –  where a wealth manager has built a successful franchise inculcating discipline and frugality (in the given context) among his superstar clients.\r\n“Every day of Joe McLean’s job, as the premier wealth manager of the N.B.A. elite, requires him to make the kind of purchases that most of us make only once or twice in a lifetime. He bought 25 cars on behalf of his clients last year, and he probably sold nearly as many. He closed on four houses in February alone. You wouldn’t believe how many pool tables he’s bought, let alone how many pools.\r\nManaging basketball players’ money is not the same thing as managing their wealth. It’s Mr. McLean’s job to protect his clients’ assets no matter what form they take. Their cars need customizing. Their houses need renovating. Their private bowling alleys need polishing. Their koi ponds — filled with 30 creatures, each worth around $5,000 — need a specific kind of emergency netting installed when the team is on the road and there’s a hurricane bearing down.\r\n…This is not to say Mr. McLean’s clients are profligate. To retain his services, each player must agree to put aside at least 60 percent of every dollar he earns, with the rate climbing to 80 percent if he’s fortunate enough to land a long-term deal. Or they’re gone. Mr. McLean has fired two clients for ignoring the policy.\r\n….Mr. McLean doesn’t negotiate his clients’ deals — he’s not an agent. His job is to grow every dollar that comes in and track every dollar that goes out. He’s part investor, part butler, a C.F.O. and a golf buddy, a sports therapist and, when necessary, the disapproving dad. When the explosive power forward Aaron Gordon got his first big contract last summer ($84 million), Mr. McLean warned him that “with great abundance comes great discipline.”\r\nMr. Gordon, 23, is unusually self-aware for a rich young athlete, and he knew it was exactly what he needed to hear. “Joe helps me pump the brakes,” he said over the phone in April, the night before Orlando’s first playoff game in more than a decade. “I like the idea of instant gratification. I want to hit home runs every single time. Joe’s been dealing with money for a long time, and he understands it’s not about home runs, you know, it’s about the singles, it’s about the doubles. Longevity.”\r\nMr. McLean earns players’ trust in part by doing the work — sourcing the golf clubs, buying the koi nets — almost entirely himself. His company, Intersect C<strong>apital, manages contracts worth $</strong>1.7 billion for about 50 athletes, and it could add another billion in value this summer alone. And yet his firm, which is in San Ramon, Calif., employs only 10 other people, because the white-glove treatment is the whole point.\r\n…”And Joe’s been right by my side. Whether he has to tell me, ‘O.K., this month you spent too much, we gotta calm down these next few months’ — I trust him that much.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Meet the Money Whisperer to the Super-Rich N.B.A. Elite', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1327-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:19:34', '2019-11-06 11:19:34', '', 1327, 'https://marcellus.in/1327-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2232, 1, '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '<em>Steve Jobs is known to have trashed any market research as he staunchly believed that customers seldom know what they want. The online review systems have in some ways used this fact to influence customer choices and perhaps even, as this Hustle piece suggests, at the cost of extorting small businesses. David Cerretini, a restaurateur in California, upset by the online review site Yelp’s heavy handed techniques to get him to advertise with them in exchange for positive reviews (or if he failed to advertise, penalise him by removing the good reviews and pushing the negative ones to the top), decided to flip the whole system upside down. He made an offer to his customers that if they left a one-star review about his restaurant on Yelp, they would get a 25% discount, only to see his business booming on the back of that.\r\n“At the time, Cerretini had a reputation for being snarky. In the vein of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bddb13df93&amp;e=5648501957\">Edsel Ford Fong</a> (who gained a reputation in 1960s San Francisco for being the ‘World’s Rudest Waiter’), his sassy attitude with diners was part of his appeal. He maintained a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ecff960716&amp;e=5648501957\">Hall of Shame</a> featuring facetious Yelp Eliters (or “Village Idiots”). He compiled idiotic customer inquiries (e.g. “Do you sell burgers?”) and sent out a newsletter of the “Stupidest Questions of the Month.” He posted an <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=08c023b61a&amp;e=5648501957\">FAQ</a> on his website stating that the customer is not, in fact, always right.\r\nTo loyal diners, it was Davide being Davide; to transient Yelpers, it was 1-star service. Soon, he came to a realization: “What if I don’t give a shit about reputation? What if I take away their power by actually making it worse?”\r\nOne morning in September of 2014, he placed a simple sign in front of Botto Bistro: Give us a one star review on Yelp and get 25% off any pizza! Hate us on Yelp. (The discount was later increased to 50%.)\r\n….Most supporters refused to take the discount, but were thrilled to write a review and partake in what they deemed to be a grassroots, anti-Yelp uprising.\r\nIn a few days’ time, Botto Bistro’s Yelp page attracted more than 2,300 1-star ratings (95% of its total reviews) extolling the good food, proper service, and rustic ambiance. “Botto Bistro sucks,” wrote one reviewer. “Delicious food priced fairly. One star.”\r\n“I got thousands and thousands of letters, thousands of emails a day,” says Cerretini. “People were sending me boxes of chocolates, cash, checks. Business owners from all over the country stopped by to thank me and write a bad review.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The restaurant owner who asked for 1-star Yelp reviews', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1325-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '2019-11-06 11:25:48', '', 1325, 'https://marcellus.in/1325-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2233, 1, '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '<em>In our blogs we often discuss the impact of reading extensively on the human mind (example: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cbeb081290&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>). This fascinating piece from the BBC goes a step further and cites scientific research which shows that reading does make us better people.\r\nWhy does this happen? Reading, it turns out, “is like a training course in understanding others. The Canadian cognitive psychologist Keith Oatley calls fiction “the mind’s flight simulator”. Just as pilots can practise flying without leaving the ground, people who read fiction may improve their social skills each time they open a novel. In his research, he has found that as we begin to identify with the characters, we start to consider their goals and desires instead of our own. When they are in danger, our hearts start to race. We might even gasp. But we read with luxury of knowing that none of this is happening to us. We don’t wet ourselves with terror or jump out of windows to escape.\r\nHaving said that, some of the neural mechanisms the brain uses to make sense of narratives in stories do share similarities with those used in real-life situations. If we read the word “kick”, for example, areas of the brain related to physically kicking are activated. If we read that a character pulled a light cord, activity increases in the region of the brain associated with grasping.\r\nTo follow a plot, we need to know who knows what, how they feel about it and what each character believes others might be thinking. This requires the skill known as “theory of mind”. When people read about a character’s thoughts, areas of the brain associated with theory of mind are activated.”\r\nThe article goes on to cite multiple studies which have shown that people who read fiction are more perceptive than the rest of us, can read other people’s emotions better and are more helpful. For example, “At the Princeton Social Neuroscience Lab, psychologist Diana Tamir has demonstrated that people who often read fiction have better social cognition. In other words, they’re more skilled at working out what other people are thinking and feeling. Using brain scans, she has found that while reading fiction, there is more activity in parts of the default mode network of the brain that are involved in simulating what other people are thinking.\r\nPeople who read novels appear to be better than average at reading other people’s emotions, but does that necessarily make them better people? To test this, researchers at used a method many a psychology student has tried at some point, where you “accidentally” drop a bunch of pens on the floor and then see who offers to help you gather them up. Before the pen-drop took place participants were given a mood questionnaire interspersed with questions measuring empathy. Then they read a short story and answered a series of questions about to the extent they had felt transported while reading the story. Did they have a vivid mental picture of the characters? Did they want to learn more about the characters after they’d finished the story?\r\nThe experimenters then said they needed to fetch something from another room and, oops, dropped six pens on the way out. It worked: <strong>the people who felt the most transported by the story and expressed the most empathy for the characters were more likely to help retrieve the pens</strong>.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Does reading fiction make us better people?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1323-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '2019-11-06 11:29:17', '', 1323, 'https://marcellus.in/1323-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2234, 1, '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '<em>New York–based investment advisory firm Ritholtz Wealth Management is famous for its outstanding blogs and for Ben Carlson’s bestselling book “A Wealth of Commonsense”. What Ritholz is also doing is redefining marketing for the wealth management profession.\r\nJosh Brown, is the co-founder, CEO and public face of the firm. “Brown, who tweets under the handle @ReformedBroker, has stormed the advisory space with his relentless and ubiquitous media — both traditional and social — presence. He recently made a splashy guest appearance on the Showtime hit Billions. And with more than a million Twitter followers, Brown also builds business through his widely read Reformed Broker blog, CNBC appearances, and The Compound channel on YouTube, where he riffs with his team about wealth management, markets, and pop culture.”\r\nBut in a world where everyone’s attention is distracted by social media, why does anyone listen to what Ritholz has to say. “In a media-drenched landscape, quality guarantees nothing. Being different, however, offers a way to blast through the clutter. And Brown, 41, stands far apart from most advisers by not being buttoned up and polished. A big part of his appeal is his no-bullshit persona with a sense of humor served up in ultracasual attire. Brown’s “let it all hang out” mien is disarming and enticing, especially in an age when every syllable is focus-grouped and spun for maximum effect. People want what’s genuine and recoil from claims of omniscience. However, should authenticity reflexively correlate with trust?… Yet despite a glib and freewheeling style, his advice is informed by humility, he claims, likely born of hard lessons learned over many years as a stockbroker and arguably out of necessity, given his fee-only firm’s sober-minded corporate mission.”\r\nJosh Brown is not the only asset that Ritholz has when it comes to marketing. “Brown’s partner, Barry Ritholtz, 57, also works in the limelight. The co-founder, chairman, and chief investment officer writes the well-respected Big Picture blog and, for Bloomberg, hosts the influential Masters in Business podcast and writes a column. Ritholtz, who tweets under the handle @ritholtz, has nearly 140,000 followers, the second most among advisers after Brown.\r\nIn sum, a strategy based on passive investing and active evangelizing is working.\r\nSix years ago, Brown, Ritholtz…launched Ritholtz Wealth Management (@RitholtzWealth) with roughly $90 million in assets. Today the firm has about 30 employees and a stunning $1 billion in assets.”\r\nIn case you work for a big brand in the asset or wealth management industry, you will find much of the what guys at Ritholtz have to say really hard to swallow. Eg. “Brown believes that ideas should be vetted publicly and is dismissive of the prestige automatically conferred on people by dint of the company names on their business cards. He once wrote, “I don’t think I would ever invest money with someone who isn’t on Twitter.” Brown acknowledges that it “sounds ridiculous,” then explains: “If you’re just a nameless, faceless person at UBS or wherever, nobody really knows what you think. You’re living on the brand. And no one does the brand anymore. People follow people.” Brown asserts that that’s why Kim Kardashian has far more Twitter followers than the E! channel she appears on. “Nobody cares about the E! channel. They care about her. That’s happening in finance.””</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Josh and Barry Tweet Like Crazy: Are They Revolutionaizing RIA Marketing – or Just Wasting Time?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1321-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '2019-11-06 11:32:33', '', 1321, 'https://marcellus.in/1321-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2235, 1, '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '<em>As everyone now knows, Liverpool are once again the football champions of Europe. But what you might know is the role data analytics – Moneyball style, Billie Bean style analytics – has played in Liverpool’s triumph. In fact, without analytics, Liverpool (which is owned by the same American company which owns baseball’s Boston Red Sox) would not even have hired the inspirational coach, Jurgen Klopp, who guided them to the European title.\r\n“Jürgen Klopp was in his third week as Liverpool’s manager, in November 2015, when the team’s director of research, Ian Graham, arrived at his office carrying computer printouts. Graham wanted to show Klopp, whom he hadn’t yet met, what his work could do. Then he hoped to persuade Klopp to actually use it.\r\nGraham spread out his papers on the table in front of him. He began talking about a game that Borussia Dortmund, the German club that Klopp coached before joining Liverpool, had played the previous season. He noted that Dortmund had numerous chances against the lightly regarded Mainz, a smaller club that would end up finishing in 11th place. Yet Klopp’s team lost, 2-0. Graham was starting to explain what his printouts showed when Klopp’s face lit up. “Ah, you saw that game,” he said. “It was crazy. We killed them. You saw it!”\r\nGraham had not seen the game. But earlier that fall, as Liverpool was deciding who should replace the manager it was about to fire, Graham fed a numerical rendering of every attempted pass, shot and tackle by Dortmund’s players during Klopp’s tenure into a mathematical model he had constructed. Then he evaluated each of Dortmund’s games based on how his calculations assessed the players’ performances that day. The difference was striking. Dortmund had finished seventh during Klopp’s last season at the club, but the model determined that it should have finished second. Graham’s conclusion was that the disappointing season had nothing to do with Klopp, though his reputation had suffered because of it. He just happened to be coaching one of the unluckiest teams in recent history.”\r\nIan Graham, the Director of Research at Liverpool, does not watch football matches at all. He simply studies the data and teases out the analytics and helps Liverpool make better decisions: “Graham had not seen that game, either. In fact, he told Klopp, he hadn’t seen any of Dortmund’s games that season, neither live nor on video. He hadn’t needed to…To understand what happened, all he needed was his data.\r\nAnalytics has famously influenced the tactics in professional baseball and basketball in recent years. Ultimately, it may have just as great an impact on soccer, which traditionally hasn’t relied on statistics to figure out much of anything. Graham, who earned a doctorate in theoretical physics at Cambridge, built his own database to track the progress of more than 100,000 players from around the world. By recommending which of them Liverpool should try to acquire, and then how the new arrivals should be used, he has helped the club, once soccer’s most glamorous and successful, return to the cusp of glory.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Data (and Some Breathtaking Soccer) Brought Liverpool to the Cusp of Glory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1319-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '2019-11-06 11:40:05', '', 1319, 'https://marcellus.in/1319-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2236, 1, '2019-11-06 11:43:11', '2019-11-06 11:43:11', 'Utkarsh Amitabh in his succinct post talks about the need for everyone to keep evolving to stay relevant in the current environment. He cites the example of Italian grannies who have embraced social media &amp; digital marketing to spread their handmade pasta recipe and their culture. Their readiness to evolve &amp; accept technology has helped them augment their skill and made them relevant in today’s world. Utkarsh refers to the authors of “100 Year Life” to predict three defining features of work in the 21st century:\r\n1)      People are likely to live longer\r\n2)      the lifespan of organizations will reduce &amp;\r\n3)      the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice.\r\nBasis the above factors, Utkarash says that people might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years and hence ability to evolve &amp; learn will be the key to success in the future.\r\n<em>“Vicky Bennison read zoology in college and graduated with an MBA from the University of Bath. She then worked in international development across Siberia, South Africa and Turkmenistan. Today, she is best known as the person behind Pasta Grannies, a YouTube channel that finds and films real Italian grannies — nonnas — making handmade pasta. These grannies make lip-smacking pasta and tell delightful stories. What amazes me even more is how grandmas have embraced social media, learned digital marketing and emerged as media entrepreneurs across the world. Closer home, we have the example of Mastanamma, the world’s oldest celebrity chef who got her big break at 105 when her grandson filmed her cooking eggplant curry and put it online. She had cataract, wore dentures, and cooked on an open fire. As The New York Times said, it was all part of the charm. Mastanamma was a natural on camera and got one million subscribers in two years.</em>\r\n<em>These grandmas offer precious insights about the future of work, especially the importance of reinventing oneself. Unfortunately, most journals and media reports overemphasize the importance of certain skills without explaining how challenging it gets to acquire them with each passing year. Reinventing our mental models will probably be the most crucial aspect of finding work in the coming years. Let’s understand why. The authors of 100 Year Life, Lynda Gratton and Andrew Scott, offer three defining features of work in the 21st century. First, people are likely to live longer. Second, the lifespan of organizations will reduce. Third, the concept of retirement will fade away, partly due to financial reasons and partly out of choice. Combining all these factors, it is easy to visualize how one might have to learn to work in different industries, sectors and functions every few years. One of the first things we will see is the disruption of the traditional study, work and retire model by loops of work followed by study. People will probably go to college multiple times in their lives or enrol in a specialized degree at 75. It is also possible that college degrees get split into chunks or the notion of going to college is replaced by alternate learning and apprenticeship models. Several venture capital backed companies in Silicon Valley are already tinkering with this. It is clear that lifelong learning will be central to all our lives. Lifelong learning doesn’t mean chasing buzzwords, hashtags and the latest obsessions. If we do that, we will be on a perennial wild goose chase because there are way too many new things. To become effective lifelong learners, we must figure out ways to connect the dots between what we already know and what we aspire to know. What we aspire to know must follow our curiosity and factor our strengths, interests and time availability. The Italian grandmas and centenarians like Mastanamma succeeded because they leveraged their strengths and worked on things they cared about. They used technology to augment their potential and thoroughly enjoyed the experience of reinventing themselves as cutting-edge digital content producers. In addition to income, starting up at 100 gave them something to look forward to and added meaning to their lives. If you want to see how this manifests, check out Gina Petitti’s YouTube video thanking her fans on reaching 100,000 subscribers.</em>\r\n<em>Videos are great but if you prefer a real-life demo, you can meet my grandmother at the India International Centre Library, writing chapters of her new book on her tablet. Perhaps Vicky Bennison will consider doing a video series on Indian grannies as well.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Influencer grannies are a lesson in how to reinvent oneself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1342-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:43:11', '2019-11-06 11:43:11', '', 1342, 'https://marcellus.in/1342-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2237, 1, '2019-11-06 11:58:04', '2019-11-06 11:58:04', 'Elena Lacey at WIRED cites some research studies to show how tracking your symptoms actually makes you feel worse than help in a recovery.\r\n<em>“Fifteen percent of adults in the US use an app regularly or occasionally to track symptoms of a disease. About as many use a sleep-tracking app to figure out whether they get enough shut-eye. Turns out, dwelling on symptoms, <a href=\"https://www.wired.com/story/sleep-no-more-crusade-genetic-killer/\">including insomnia</a>, makes them more likely to occur. Call it <a href=\"https://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6359/44\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the nocebo effect</a>—the dark sibling of the placebo effect, the familiar mind-over-matter tendency that makes us feel better if we take a sugar pill that we believe is an effective medication.</em>\r\n<em>“The body’s response can be triggered by negative expectations,” says Luana Colloca, a University of Maryland neuroscientist and physician who studies placebo and nocebo effects. “It’s a mechanism of self-defense. From an evolutionary point of view, we’ve developed mechanisms to prevent dangerous situations.”</em>\r\n<em>The symptom tracker doesn’t just reveal your highs and lows. It produces a state of anxiety—and possibly more pain.</em>\r\n<em>That’s because our expectations shape how we feel. About 18 percent of people enrolled in trials of migraine drugs <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0333102410391485?journalCode=cepa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported side effects—from a sugar pill</a>. (They didn’t know if they were taking the real drug or the fake one.) In a different study, people who were told that their postoperative morphine was ending felt a sudden surge in pain; other patients whose morphine drip stopped without a specific warning didn’t feel that intense pain.</em>\r\n<em>A stunning example of how the mind shapes our physiology emerged from <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0483-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a recent Stanford University study</a> of how people react to learning about genetic risk factors. About 200 study participants took genetic tests and were told that, based on the results, they were either at risk of or protected from two obesity-related factors: cardiorespiratory (heart-lung) exercise capacity or satiety (feeling full) after eating. In fact, they had been assigned to the different groups randomly.</em>\r\n<em>The news changed their physiology to match what they were told. Regardless of their actual DNA-based risk, they had more or less lung capacity and endurance when exercising and more or less of a hormone that makes people feel full.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Tracking Your Symptoms Can Make You Feel Worse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1339-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-06 11:58:04', '2019-11-06 11:58:04', '', 1339, 'https://marcellus.in/1339-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2238, 1, '2019-11-06 17:12:52', '2019-11-06 17:12:52', '<strong>In the BSE100 universe we find no significant correlation between starting period valuations (i.e. at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at – phases of rapid P/E multiple expansion, significant P/E multiple compression, strong earnings growth, or weak earnings growth. Instead, in each of the historical phases, <u>there has been a strong correlation between earnings growth rates and share price returns</u>. Provided an investor can build a portfolio of consistent compounders, such a portfolio outperforms the broader market, and delivers healthy absolute returns in all types of external market environments.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Cognitive psychology tells us that the unaided human mind is vulnerable to many fallacies and illusions because of its reliance on its memory for vivid anecdotes rather than systematic statistics.”</em> – <strong>Steven Pinker</strong>, a Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University.\r\n\r\nTwo of the most common fallacies of investing in the stock market are:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>P/E multiple of 10x is cheap and P/E multiple of 50x is expensive</li>\r\n 	<li>During time periods when P/E multiples of great companies compress, share prices of poor quality companies will outperform those of great companies.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLet’s do a quick statistical analysis to test these two points. As shown in the exhibits that follow, the BSE100 universe in India has had no significant correlation between starting period valuations (as at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at.\r\n\r\n<strong>Scenario 1 – FY14-19 – High-quality stocks were in vogue!</strong>\r\nThe first scenario considers the five-year period of FY14-19 during which ‘high quality stocks’ were in vogue (although many not-so-great-quality stocks were also perceived to be ‘high quality’ during this phase). During this period, BSE100 index delivered a weak earnings CAGR of 4%, but underwent a 50% expansion in its P/E multiple from 18x to 26x (see exhibit 1).\r\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2253 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"197\" /></p>\r\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 2 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (0.02%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-square = 32%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of significant P/E multiple expansion for the entire index, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index.</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2254 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"519\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Scenario 2 – FY04-08 – Capex and infra boom!</strong>\r\nThis scenario considers the four-year period of FY04-08 during which BSE100 delivered earnings CAGR of 22% - twice the long-term average earnings growth rate. In this phase, earnings growth rates were broad based with only a narrow gap between earnings CAGR of high quality stock and the not-so-high-quality stocks in the index. P/E multiple expanded at a modest pace (see exhibit 3).<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2255 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"202\" />\r\n\r\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 4 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (R-squared = 0.52%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 40%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of broad-based healthy earnings CAGR with only a modest P/E multiple expansion for the entire index, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index. </strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2256 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"528\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Scenario 3 – FY94-04 – P/E multiples HALVED!</strong>\r\nThis scenario considers the 10 year period of FY94-04 during which BSE100 underwent a massive compression in its P/E multiple from 47x in FY94 to 16x in FY04. The P/E compression was broad-based with stocks like Asian Paints, Nestle, ITC undergoing more than 50% reduction in their P/E multiples over the decade (see exhibit 5).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2257 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"850\" height=\"292\" />\r\n\r\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 6 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (R-squared = 0.45%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 75%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period – see Exhibit 6 on the right below. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of deflation in P/E for quality stocks, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index.</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2258 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"537\" />\r\n\r\nWhat is also quite interesting is that the absolute share price return of high-quality stocks was in mid-teens CAGR, a run-rate which should be quite comfortable for most investors if that is the worst-case scenario. Hence, sitting on cash / investing fixed deposits was less rewarding compared to investing in equities even in this scenario, <em><strong>provided</strong></em> an investor can orient their portfolio only towards great companies.\r\n\r\n<strong>Scenario 4 – FY04-19 – The long term story</strong>\r\nThis scenario takes into account a 15-year period which has seen different phases of growth as well as contraction and expansion of PE. More than 70% of the returns in the index is explained by earnings and less than 30% is explained by PE expansion (see exhibit 7 and 8 below)\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2262 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qqq.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"884\" height=\"266\" />\r\n\r\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 8 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (0.45%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 66%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period – see Exhibit 8 on the right below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2260 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"525\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIn our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/\">2nd July 2019 newsletter</a>, we highlighted that Nestle India’s P/E multiple was 64x (trailing) in 1994 and it is 69x currently i.e. the stock appeared expensive 25 years ago, and it might appear expensive today as well. However, investment in Nestle in 1994 at 64x P/E multiple would have fetched 17% CAGR (1994-2019) compared to 10% CAGR delivered by Sensex over the same time period. To put it in another way, investment in Nestle India at 290x P/E multiple in 1994 and exit at today’s price, would have delivered shareholder returns in line with Sensex. <strong>Hence, in 1994 Nestle’s fair valuation P/E multiple was 290x!</strong>\r\n<strong>Why do such conundrums exist? </strong>Let us start with an analogy. Let’s say you went to purchase a new car for yourself, and you were offered two cars by the car dealers - a Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire for Rs 30 lakhs and a Bentley for Rs. 30 lakhs. Your instant reaction will be that the Swift Dzire is overvalued and that the Bentley is undervalued. Why? Because you are aware of the tangible utility and luxury offered by these cars which helps you to conclude that the fair value of Swift Dzire is substantially lower than Rs 30 lakhs and that of the Bentley is substantially higher than Rs 30 lakhs. But what if you were new to the car industry and this awareness was not there at all? What if the Swift Dzire marketing campaign talked about ride comfort in exactly the same manner as Bentley’s marketing campaign? Then you might not think that Bentley’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is deeply undervalued and that Swift Dzire’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is substantially overvalued.\r\n\r\nNow, let’s get back to the stock market. If you go by first principles, the fair value of any firm is the present value of all <em><strong>expected</strong></em> future cash flows. However, it is difficult to predict the future because of the uncertain interplay between continuity and disruption. As a result, at the same price tag of 45x P/E multiple in 1999, both Nestle and Unilever appeared similar in quality to most investors. More importantly, at that price tag, both appeared ‘expensive’, when Nestle turned out to be significantly cheap at that price tag (and HUL turned out to be radically overvalued).\r\n\r\nAlmost 99% of the companies listed on the stock exchanges, have historically exhibited a very high degree of volatility in their revenues, earnings and ROCE. Due to such weak and unpredictable fundamentals, even at 10x / 20x / 30x P/E multiples, they have proved to be over-valued. There are less than 1% of firms which have delivered consistency of healthy fundamentals over several decades in a row. Such firms have been found to be undervalued even at P/E multiples of 30x / 40x / 50x, as quantified below.\r\n\r\nAt a portfolio level for Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS, earnings growth rates have been ~20% CAGR historically – see the Exhibit 9 below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2261 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"824\" height=\"500\" />\r\n\r\nIt is worth noticing that over the past five years (FY14-19), India has witnessed a significant moderation in economic activity (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">click here </a> for our blog on this subject) with the nominal GDP growth in India being in single digits, significantly lower than its long term historical average. This has led to BSE100 Index delivering only 4% EPS CAGR (see exhibit 1 under Scenario 1 of this blog). During such a period of weak external environment, as shown in Exhibit 9 above, our portfolio companies have managed to deliver 19% earnings CAGR. This 15% gap against the benchmark index has fully supported the outperformance of the share prices of our portfolio companies relative to the index returns over this period.\r\n\r\nThere are a handful of companies which are consistent compounders of earnings due to their superior businesses and great management. These businesses are incredibly rare, not even 1% of the listed universe. Provided an investor can build a portfolio full of only consistent compounders, such a portfolio outperforms the broader market, and delivers healthy absolute returns in all types of external market environments.\r\n\r\nOur research team of five analysts focuses only on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe are likely to deliver consistent and healthy earnings growth in future as well.', 'The role of P/E multiples in determining investment returns', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-role-of-p-e-multiples-in-determining-investment-returns', '', '', '2019-11-07 05:29:07', '2019-11-07 05:29:07', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2238', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(2263, 1, '2019-11-07 05:27:31', '2019-11-07 05:27:31', '<strong>In the BSE100 universe we find no significant correlation between starting period valuations (i.e. at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at – phases of rapid P/E multiple expansion, significant P/E multiple compression, strong earnings growth, or weak earnings growth. Instead, in each of the historical phases, <u>there has been a strong correlation between earnings growth rates and share price returns</u>. Provided an investor can build a portfolio of consistent compounders, such a portfolio outperforms the broader market, and delivers healthy absolute returns in all types of external market environments.</strong>\n\n<em>“Cognitive psychology tells us that the unaided human mind is vulnerable to many fallacies and illusions because of its reliance on its memory for vivid anecdotes rather than systematic statistics.”</em> – <strong>Steven Pinker</strong>, a Johnstone Family Professor in the Department of Psychology at Harvard University.\n\nTwo of the most common fallacies of investing in the stock market are:\n<ol>\n 	<li>P/E multiple of 10x is cheap and P/E multiple of 50x is expensive</li>\n 	<li>During time periods when P/E multiples of great companies compress, share prices of poor quality companies will outperform those of great companies.</li>\n</ol>\nLet’s do a quick statistical analysis to test these two points. As shown in the exhibits that follow, the BSE100 universe in India has had no significant correlation between starting period valuations (as at the beginning of the concerned period) and subsequent long-term returns, no matter which phase of the stock market one looks at.\n\n<strong>Scenario 1 – FY14-19 – High-quality stocks were in vogue!</strong>\nThe first scenario considers the five-year period of FY14-19 during which ‘high quality stocks’ were in vogue (although many not-so-great-quality stocks were also perceived to be ‘high quality’ during this phase). During this period, BSE100 index delivered a weak earnings CAGR of 4%, but underwent a 50% expansion in its P/E multiple from 18x to 26x (see exhibit 1).\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2253 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"197\" /></p>\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 2 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (0.02%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-square = 32%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of significant P/E multiple expansion for the entire index, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index.</strong>\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2254 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"776\" height=\"519\" />\n\n<strong>Scenario 2 – FY04-08 – Capex and infra boom!</strong>\nThis scenario considers the four-year period of FY04-08 during which BSE100 delivered earnings CAGR of 22% - twice the long-term average earnings growth rate. In this phase, earnings growth rates were broad based with only a narrow gap between earnings CAGR of high quality stock and the not-so-high-quality stocks in the index. P/E multiple expanded at a modest pace (see exhibit 3).<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2255 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"202\" />\n\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 4 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (R-squared = 0.52%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 40%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of broad-based healthy earnings CAGR with only a modest P/E multiple expansion for the entire index, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index. </strong>\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2256 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"760\" height=\"528\" />\n\n<strong>Scenario 3 – FY94-04 – P/E multiples HALVED!</strong>\nThis scenario considers the 10 year period of FY94-04 during which BSE100 underwent a massive compression in its P/E multiple from 47x in FY94 to 16x in FY04. The P/E compression was broad-based with stocks like Asian Paints, Nestle, ITC undergoing more than 50% reduction in their P/E multiples over the decade (see exhibit 5).\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2257 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"850\" height=\"292\" />\n\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 6 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (R-squared = 0.45%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 75%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period – see Exhibit 6 on the right below. <strong>Hence, despite this being a phase of deflation in P/E for quality stocks, it has been earnings (rather than starting period P/E multiples) which have determined outperformance of a stock relative to the index.</strong>\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2258 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"537\" />\n\nWhat is also quite interesting is that the absolute share price return of high-quality stocks was in mid-teens CAGR, a run-rate which should be quite comfortable for most investors if that is the worst-case scenario. Hence, sitting on cash / investing fixed deposits was less rewarding compared to investing in equities even in this scenario, <em><strong>provided</strong></em> an investor can orient their portfolio only towards great companies.\n\n<strong>Scenario 4 – FY04-19 – The long term story</strong>\nThis scenario takes into account a 15-year period which has seen different phases of growth as well as contraction and expansion of PE. More than 70% of the returns in the index is explained by earnings and less than 30% is explained by PE expansion (see exhibit 7 and 8 below)\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2262 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qqq.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"884\" height=\"266\" />\n\nAs can be seen clearly from Exhibit 8 on the left below, there is no significant correlation (0.45%) between the returns profile and the starting price multiples of the index constituents. Instead, there is a strong correlation (R-squared = 66%) between the returns profile and earnings compounding during this period – see Exhibit 8 on the right below.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2260 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"728\" height=\"525\" />\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIn our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=91b5898bff&amp;e=5648501957\">2nd July 2019 newsletter</a>, we highlighted that Nestle India’s P/E multiple was 64x (trailing) in 1994 and it is 69x currently i.e. the stock appeared expensive 25 years ago, and it might appear expensive today as well. However, investment in Nestle in 1994 at 64x P/E multiple would have fetched 17% CAGR (1994-2019) compared to 10% CAGR delivered by Sensex over the same time period. To put it in another way, investment in Nestle India at 290x P/E multiple in 1994 and exit at today’s price, would have delivered shareholder returns in line with Sensex. <strong>Hence, in 1994 Nestle’s fair valuation P/E multiple was 290x!</strong>\n<strong>Why do such conundrums exist? </strong>Let us start with an analogy. Let’s say you went to purchase a new car for yourself, and you were offered two cars by the car dealers - a Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire for Rs 30 lakhs and a Bentley for Rs. 30 lakhs. Your instant reaction will be that the Swift Dzire is overvalued and that the Bentley is undervalued. Why? Because you are aware of the tangible utility and luxury offered by these cars which helps you to conclude that the fair value of Swift Dzire is substantially lower than Rs 30 lakhs and that of the Bentley is substantially higher than Rs 30 lakhs. But what if you were new to the car industry and this awareness was not there at all? What if the Swift Dzire marketing campaign talked about ride comfort in exactly the same manner as Bentley’s marketing campaign? Then you might not think that Bentley’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is deeply undervalued and that Swift Dzire’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is substantially overvalued.\n\nNow, let’s get back to the stock market. If you go by first principles, the fair value of any firm is the present value of all <em><strong>expected</strong></em> future cash flows. However, it is difficult to predict the future because of the uncertain interplay between continuity and disruption. As a result, at the same price tag of 45x P/E multiple in 1999, both Nestle and Unilever appeared similar in quality to most investors. More importantly, at that price tag, both appeared ‘expensive’, when Nestle turned out to be significantly cheap at that price tag (and HUL turned out to be radically overvalued).\n\nAlmost 99% of the companies listed on the stock exchanges, have historically exhibited a very high degree of volatility in their revenues, earnings and ROCE. Due to such weak and unpredictable fundamentals, even at 10x / 20x / 30x P/E multiples, they have proved to be over-valued. There are less than 1% of firms which have delivered consistency of healthy fundamentals over several decades in a row. Such firms have been found to be undervalued even at P/E multiples of 30x / 40x / 50x, as quantified below.\n\nAt a portfolio level for Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS, earnings growth rates have been ~20% CAGR historically – see the Exhibit 9 below.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2261 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/qq9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"824\" height=\"500\" />\n\nIt is worth noticing that over the past five years (FY14-19), India has witnessed a significant moderation in economic activity (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=71aadef678&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a> for our blog on this subject) with the nominal GDP growth in India being in single digits, significantly lower than its long term historical average. This has led to BSE100 Index delivering only 4% EPS CAGR (see exhibit 1 under Scenario 1 of this blog). During such a period of weak external environment, as shown in Exhibit 9 above, our portfolio companies have managed to deliver 19% earnings CAGR. This 15% gap against the benchmark index has fully supported the outperformance of the share prices of our portfolio companies relative to the index returns over this period.\n\nThere are a handful of companies which are consistent compounders of earnings due to their superior businesses and great management. These businesses are incredibly rare, not even 1% of the listed universe. Provided an investor can build a portfolio full of only consistent compounders, such a portfolio outperforms the broader market, and delivers healthy absolute returns in all types of external market environments.\n\nOur research team of five analysts focuses only on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe are likely to deliver consistent and healthy earnings growth in future as well.', 'The role of P/E multiples in determining investment returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2238-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-07 05:27:31', '2019-11-07 05:27:31', '', 2238, 'https://marcellus.in/2238-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2265, 1, '2019-11-08 12:20:28', '2019-11-08 12:20:28', 'American fund manager, Tom Machperson of Nintai Partners, highlights something that many of us who manage money know but never fully acknowledge i.e. <em>“Managers who are frugal, both in their personal lives and in their compensation, generally run companies with higher returns on capital than those overseen by the most highly compensated managers.”</em>\r\nNintai Partners’ number crunching suggests that CEOs who are paid less generate more Return on Capital: <em>“We chose 36 companies from the top decile of the S&amp;P 500 and 49 companies from the top decile of the Russell 3000 and calculated return on capital for the years 2009 to 2013. We chose the same amount for the lowest decile. In addition, we wanted to see if individuals who are compensated at either the highest or lowest decile had a different tenure within their respective companies. Last, we were interested to see what happened to the company’s return on capital after that management team had left. (The pool of candidates was smaller here simply because not everyone has left yet.)</em>\r\n<em>It turns out there was a strong correlation. The numbers seen below show that management who are compensated the least have a dramatic – and positive – impact on ROC. I should note this applied in every industry sector listed (in the Corporate Sector Make Up). The lowest 10% in compensation achieved an average ROC from 2009 to 2013 of 17.3%. The highest 10% compensated managers achieved a ROC of only 11.4%. Additionally, the lowest paid managers stayed on in their CEO position nearly 10 years longer. As an investor, not only does your holding managed by the lowest compensated managers generate a higher ROC, but it achieves it for a longer period of time.”</em>\r\nThe same finding apparently holds true in fund management – lower paid fund managers generate better returns: “<em>It turns out the data show that managers who are frugally compensated have a tendency to generate much higher return on capital than those who are lavishly compensated.”</em>\r\nSo why do we see this correlation? Is there causation here i.e. are lower paid CEOs and fund managers doing something through their frugality which is helping their firms make more money? Macpherson sees three effects at play:\r\n·       <em>“….some individuals run a tight financial ship throughout their lives. This type of tight-fisted approach to spending can run through an entire business, creating extraordinary internal returns (such as return on capital, return on equity and return on assets) as well as investor returns….</em>\r\n·       <em>…managers who faithfully showed up on the lowest compensated list year after year remained at their post far longer than those who were the highest compensated.</em>\r\n·       <em>…While return on capital decreased slightly after the departure of a lowest-compensated manager, generally the company continued to outperform companies with the highest compensated managers. This persisted over the next five to 10 years in nearly every case. The values of the cheapskate CEO had a lasting effect.”</em>', 'Return on Capital Super Heroes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1331-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:20:28', '2019-11-08 12:20:28', '', 1331, 'https://marcellus.in/1331-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2266, 1, '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '<em>The iconoclastic hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates emphasised about ‘radical transparency’ in the work place, well documented in his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f3f0644040&amp;e=5648501957\">Principles</a>’. This piece in the FT focuses on transparency in perhaps the most opaque aspect of worklife – salaries. “Pay has long been considered a taboo subject in many parts of the world. As Kim Scott, previously at Google and Apple, and author of Radical Candor, puts it: “We behave about money the way the Victorians behaved about sex.”\r\nAt Marcellus, we are hoping to establish a culture of radical transparency having started with full disclosure in salaries. As the piece goes onto argue that it is relatively simpler in early stage companies such as ours, yet it might be the way forward for even large established organisations if done with the right intent and understanding of the pitfalls. In particular, the author argues that such transparency in pay can help bridge the gender and racial pay gaps that exist across organisations globally.\r\n“Organisations work “very hard” to make pay opaque, she says. “They know they can’t always justify differences. It’s in [their] interest as an employer not to be open about these things.” Such secrecy puts workers at a huge disadvantage in negotiating salary, says Alison Green, the US management consultant behind the site Ask A Manager, who has compiled an anonymous database on pay. “It also makes it far harder to uncover pay disparities by gender or race.”\r\n….Technology and legislation are shifting attitudes to pay secrecy. At its most extreme, some companies have embraced radical transparency — making their staff’s salaries accessible to each other. Could this be the future?\r\nSocial media has made the private public, and websites such as Glassdoor and Salary Expert help workers find information about pay. At the same time, legislation has brought pay under public scrutiny. In the US and UK, listed companies are required to publish the pay ratio between chief executives and workers’ averages. Gender pay gap reporting has been introduced in the UK and France. A new law in Germany allows women to ask for the median salary of a group of at least six men doing similar work, and vice versa.\r\nIn 2017, the BBC revealed that two-thirds of its highest paid stars were men. The following year, Carrie Gracie resigned from her post as China editor, writing in an open letter that the broadcaster was “breaking equality law and resisting pressure for a fair and transparent pay structure”.\r\nOne BBC employee says that the pay controversy has encouraged some men to share their salary levels with female staff, so they can discover if they are being underpaid. “It can be immensely helpful. The genie is out of the bottle. We believe that transparency is right in court proceedings, in MPs’ expenses. We need to be more prepared to be open with each other about what we earn.”\r\n…Research by the Fawcett Society last year found that 53 per cent of female workers and 47 of male workers would be uncomfortable disclosing their pay to a peer. However, when they believed there was discrimination, 62 per cent of women and 57 per cent of men would share the data.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice<strong>. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why radical transparency about salaries can pay off', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1290-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '2019-11-08 12:25:27', '', 1290, 'https://marcellus.in/1290-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2267, 1, '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '<em>It was about time someone brought the ‘middle income trap’ risk back to the front and centre of the discourse on the Indian economy. There are few better than Rathin Roy to have done it, not just because he is one of India’s finest macroeconomists. That he is a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) makes this an admission of sorts by the establishment, adding some gravitas to the discourse. (He is also the Director of National Institute of Public Finance &amp; Policy, a think tank which influences India’s fiscal policy making). This comes at a time when pretty much every data point – macro or micro, over the past two quarters is pointing towards a slowdown in the only engine that has been firing the Indian economy over the past decade – consumption. Roy reckons there are structural reasons behind this which if not rectified soon can pose a serious risk that India will remain a lower  middle income country or get caught in the so called ‘middle income trap’ like Brazil or South Africa and will never become another China or South Korea. He says “In the history of the world, countries have avoided the middle income trap, but no country — once caught in it — has ever been able to get out,”\r\n“…The World Bank’s lower middle income range for countries is defined as per capita gross national income (GNI) of between $996 and $3,895. As per 2017 figures, the income of an average Indian was in the vicinity of $1,795, which placed the country well below the halfway mark, data from Bloomberg shows.\r\nDuring the same period, the comparable figure for China stood at $8,690, which put it well above the halfway mark in the upper middle income range — defined as GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055.\r\nRoy said that the 10 crore Indian consumers who have so far been powering India’s growth story are now beginning to plateau out. He called it an early warning: since 1991 the economy has been driven not by exports but by what these 10 crore consumers wanted to buy.\r\nThe risk, Roy said, now runs deeper; the possibility that India will remain stuck at the middle income range has now started appearing more and more real, which indicates India will never be another China or South Korea but could begin replicating basket cases like South Africa or Brazil where large swathes of poor population are powering not growth, but crime.\r\n…And it’s not just Rathin Roy. Even the Ministry of Finance, in its Monthly Economic Report of March 2019, had shed ample light on the current scenario. “India’s economy appears to have slowed down slightly in 2018-19. The proximate factors responsible for this slowdown include declining growth of private consumption, tepid increase in fixed investment, and muted exports,” it had warned.\r\n…And what does Roy think of the claim about India being the world’s fastest-growing economy? India certainly is currently the world’s fastest-growing, but this is not the fastest growth in India’s history, he says, adding an interesting aspect to the debate — he thinks India is fastest only because China is not currently the fastest.\r\nA growth rate of 6.1-6.6 per cent is not bad, but consumption slowdown is going to put that under threat, Roy warned: “A time will come when that will stop.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Could the single engine driving India crash? Yes, if you go by one of Modi’s top guys', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1285-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '2019-11-08 12:28:18', '', 1285, 'https://marcellus.in/1285-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2268, 1, '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '<em>This unusual and interesting article is a review of two books on kidnapping. These books are ‘We Want to Negotiate: The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages, and Ransom’ by Joel Simon and ‘Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business’ by Anja Shortland. The article explains that not only is kidnapping a well organised, professionally managed business but the insurers who provide ‘Kidnap &amp; Ransom’ insurance across the world also work as a tight knit group. Whilst the article does not talk about India, what we know about the big ticket kidnapping business in India tallies nicely with thrust of this article. Here a couple of the most interesting examples cited in this piece:\r\n“In Argentina in the early 1970s, leftist guerrillas started snatching executives of multinational companies and demanding ransoms. This culminated in the payment of $60 million to the Montoneros, a Peronist guerrilla group, for the release of the brothers Juan and Jorge Born, executives at the grain-exporting firm Bunge &amp; Born and the sons of its president. The ransom seems noteworthy for its heft—at about $275 million in today’s money, it stands as the largest one paid in a conventional kidnapping case. (In 2017 Qatar reportedly paid $1 billion to an al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win the release of a royal hunting party.) But perhaps what makes the Born case more unusual in the history of the ransom trade is the fact that Jorge himself negotiated the price while captive. He had intimate knowledge of the company’s finances and thus had a precise sense of how much money could be raised—though not, crucially, how much ought to be paid. The deal he struck was delivered to Born père, who had refused the initial demand of $100 million, as a signed memorandum.\r\nAs Argentine ransoms soared, insurers at Lloyd’s of London were beginning to rake in premiums from a peculiar product. Kidnap-and-ransom (K&amp;R) insurance had existed since 1932—it was developed in response to the abduction and killing of Charles Lindbergh’s twenty-month-old son—but it didn’t take off until the 1960s, following a series of kidnappings of businessmen and their families in Europe and Latin America. Companies started buying coverage for those employees most likely to be targeted, and the market boomed. Had Bunge &amp; Born purchased coverage for the brothers, it would have been reimbursed for at least a portion of the payout….\r\nAround 90 percent of all kidnappings are successfully resolved, meaning the hostages return alive, usually through ransom—an “astonishing success rate,” remarks Anja Shortland in Kidnap: Inside the Ransom Business. And the odds are considerably better if specialists are involved: more than 97 percent of cases handled by professional negotiators are resolved successfully, almost always through ransom. (A small percentage of hostages escape and an even smaller number are rescued.) In almost all of these cases, the negotiators are provided as part of an insurance package, but if a victim is uninsured, they can be hired directly (the good ones for over $2,000 a day).”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Kidnapping – A Very Efficient Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1283-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '2019-11-08 12:29:41', '', 1283, 'https://marcellus.in/1283-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2269, 1, '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '<em>Millions of people dread sitting in the dentist’s chair and most of them can’t bear the sound of the dentist’s drill grinding into their teeth. Now they can draw solace from this article which says that dentistry is “…much less scientific—and more prone to gratuitous procedures—than you may think.” The article uses American data and American examples to explain how dentists not only overcharge, they routinely make patients undergo procedures (root canals, crowns, bridges, etc) which are not required but which help the dentist boost his earnings. So why are dentists peculiarly well positioned to exploit their patients?\r\n“In other medical contexts, such as a visit to a general practitioner or a cardiologist, we are fairly accustomed to seeking a second opinion before agreeing to surgery or an expensive regimen of pills with harsh side effects. But in the dentist’s office—perhaps because we both dread dental procedures and belittle their medical significance—the impulse is to comply without much consideration, to get the whole thing over with as quickly as possible.”\r\nFurthermore, credible scientific reviews – the article claims – show that most dental procedures actually confer no tangible benefit on the patient: “Fluoridation of drinking water seems to help reduce tooth decay in children, but there is insufficient evidence that it does the same for adults. Some data suggest that regular flossing, in addition to brushing, mitigates gum disease, but there is only “weak, very unreliable” evidence that it combats plaque. As for common but invasive dental procedures, an increasing number of dentists question the tradition of prophylactic wisdom-teeth removal; often, the safer choice is to monitor unproblematic teeth for any worrying developments. Little medical evidence justifies the substitution of tooth-colored resins for typical metal amalgams to fill cavities. And what limited data we have don’t clearly indicate whether it’s better to repair a root-canaled tooth with a crown or a filling.”\r\nIn America patients are litigating successfully against exploitative dentists and getting some recompense. In India, given the state of our courts, that is unlikely to work. Hence the next time you are in a dentist’s chair, it is worth being objective about what he’s recommending.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'The Truth about Dentistry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1280-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '2019-11-08 12:30:42', '', 1280, 'https://marcellus.in/1280-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2270, 1, '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '<em>Vanguard, the world’s second largest fund management house, continues to astound. Not contend with becoming a giant in index funds, Vanguard has found a new innovation – avoiding capital gains taxes for its clients: “…Vanguard Group Inc. has figured out a way to shut off taxes in its mutual funds. The first to benefit was the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund. Investors’ end-of-year tax forms abruptly stopped showing capital gains in 2001, even as the fund went on to generate billions of dollars of them. By 2011, Vanguard had flipped the switch in 14 stock funds. In all, these funds have booked $191 billion in gains while reporting zero to the Internal Revenue Service.”\r\nSo how is this miracle performed? “…a review of financial statements and trading data shows that Vanguard relies substantially on so-called heartbeat trades, which wash away taxes by rapidly pumping stocks in and out of a fund. These controversial transactions are common in exchange-traded funds—a record $98 billion of them took place last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News—but only Vanguard has used them routinely to also benefit mutual funds.\r\nHere’s how it works: Vanguard attaches a more tax-efficient ETF to an existing mutual fund. Then the ETF siphons appreciated stocks out of the mutual fund without incurring taxes, often using heartbeat trades. Robert Gordon, who has written about the concept and is president of Twenty-First Securities Corp. in New York, calls it a tax “dialysis machine.””\r\nThe article contains a useful chart which shows how “rapidly pumping money into and out of the exchange-traded portion of the Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund removes taxable gains for the benefit of the mutual fund’s shareholders.”\r\nJust in case you are thinking about doing this for your fund as well, you need to know that “Vanguard even got a patent on the design, valid until 2023, so competitors can’t copy it.”\r\nThe article goes onto show that Vanguard uses heartbeat trades more than any other American fund manager. So, how meaningful is the benefit to Vanguard’s American clients from this clever tax manoeuvre: “The main benefit of avoiding taxable gains in a mutual fund is tax deferral. Funds distribute their taxable gains to investors, who pay income taxes on them in the same year. By avoiding tax events within the fund, investors get to delay taxes until they sell the fund, which could be years or decades later. It’s akin to a zero-interest loan from the IRS.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1277-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '2019-11-08 12:32:04', '', 1277, 'https://marcellus.in/1277-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2272, 1, '2019-11-11 03:55:04', '2019-11-11 03:55:04', 'Nokia, the Finnish pioneer in mobile phones controlled almost 40% of the world’s mobile phone market a little over a decade ago. In no time, it disappeared into oblivion as far as its position as a mobile phone maker is concerned (although its network equipment business continues to thrive). At Marcellus, we look for competitive advantages or moats in a company, but more importantly the sustainability of the same. Nokia is the best demonstration of why competitive advantage is a dynamic concept and failure to strengthen it relentlessly will eventually lead to its downfall. Furthermore, the Nokia example shows why technology is such a weak source of competitive advantage – something that can be replicated if not bettered too soon. But this piece is more about the Scandinavian/Nordic approach to welfare which in turn breeds innovation. It talks about a town in Finland which as one of the key locations for Nokia got severely affected by Nokia’s fall but bounced back quickly as a hub of innovative tech companies, thanks to both the Finnish state’s efforts as well as the culture of corporate responsibility in the Nordics by which Nokia ensured the employees it made redundant were rehabilitated.\r\n“For about a decade, starting in 2005, Nokia suffered setback after setback. Lietsalmi ascribes this slump to a change in the company’s overall approach, from aggressive innovation to something approaching complacency. The company was a world-leader in mobile handsets, he said, when its executive staff decided to adopt a more conservative strategy. “The leadership, including myself, started to think that [success was] not about inventing new things that much, but about managing growth,” he says. Hungry foreign competitors, meanwhile, were innovating at a frantic pace.\r\n“If you stay with that mindset,” he says, wistfully, “then when the growth is over, someone else will come and disrupt the market.” Nokia had grown complacent, he says, under the assumption that the top spot was theirs for good. At the same time, cheaper Chinese exports threatened its more basic models. Though the company attempted to make forays into smartphones with touchscreen devices such as 2004’s 7710 model, its efforts failed to capture the imagination of the public. In 2007, when Apple introduced the iPhone, Nokia simply couldn’t keep up: Despite selling reasonably well initially, its competing N97 model had significant hardware and software problems, and was eventually written off by the company as a “tremendous disappointment.” Within four years, the company had lost 75% of its market value.\r\nBy this point, Oulu had been a key Nokia location for decades.…In 2016, with almost 2,000 lost Nokia jobs, Oulu’s unemployment rate rose to more than 16%, about double the national average….It happens all the time—when the biggest employer in town goes down, it takes the town with it.\r\nBut Oulu wasn’t like Flint, Michigan, or its Rust Belt brothers. Instead, Ala-Mursula tells me, the Nokia layoffs took two key resources—concentrated talent, and intellectual property—and spread them across the region within Finland, like a child blowing the fluff from a dandelion. According to the city government, in 2017 alone, Oulu became home to 1,175 new companies, many of which were started by or employ the talented engineers previously been at Nokia’s helm.\r\nNokia itself is, in part, to thank for these efforts. After Microsoft came in, the company instituted a “bridge program” designed to help its workers find jobs in other companies. “The idea was to give social support to the people who are leaving their jobs with Nokia,” regional manager Sankari told me on a tour of Nokia’s present-day factory and 5G facility. “We help them to be employed, help them find a new career as fast as possible.”\r\nOf the thousand or so people who have been a part of Nokia’s bridge program, more than 80% have found their way onto a new path, Sankari says. Some received coaching; others were given Nokia intellectual property, with a view to starting something new.\r\nSuch Nordic corporate responsibility isn’t totally unusual, Sankari adds, though Nokia’s commitment is particularly deep-rooted. “Quite often the bridge program is referred in Finnish media, at least, as kind of a best practice,” she says. “It’s kind of a Scandinavian system and heritage that you need to take care of your employees so that they can have a good life, even if you might not be able to provide it for them.””', 'Nokia’s collapse turned a sleepy town in Finland into an internet wonderland', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2271-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 03:55:04', '2019-11-11 03:55:04', '', 2271, 'https://marcellus.in/2271-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2273, 1, '2019-11-10 03:59:38', '2019-11-10 03:59:38', 'Warren Buffet calls it the ovarian lottery. For most of us, the conditions of our birth – financial, geographical and social, determine much of how the rest of our lives pan out. Few people defy this lottery and rise up against all odds. The Mint carries a heart-warming story of a boy who came up from modest beginnings and toiled through teenage years to now being considered the next big thing in Indian cricket. The story is about Yashasvi Jaiswal, the 17yr old Mumbai cricket team’s opening batsman, who as a 10yr old left his family back in a village in UP to come to Mumbai, the home of Indian cricket with nothing but a dream. In some ways he demonstrates that the fact that he came with nothing to lose helped him with the resolve to succeed and even better, learn to deal with success. “Cricket is a game where 40 out of 50 times you aren’t successful,\" he says. “Ten times you succeed. The best thing is to enjoy. The day you get runs it’s important to be happy because other days it’s not so easy. You need to be normal whether it’s going well or not.\"\r\n“When Jaiswal, the fourth of six children, first arrived from Uttar Pradesh to play cricket at the age of 10, the immediate challenge wasn’t how to hit cover drives or score centuries, but more basic: where to sleep, how to eat, where to bathe. In the early months, he stayed with an uncle, then worked briefly at a dairy, from where he was turfed out two months later for working less and playing more.\r\nEventually, he started staying at the Muslim United Club’s tent at Azad Maidan, Mumbai, where the gardeners and ground staff lived—he spent about three years there. He had to use the public toilets at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus and served pani puris in the evenings, at times even to his teammates to earn a spot of cash. “Who would like this?\" he asks. “It didn’t feel good. But I thought it’s okay, let it go.\"\r\nHis kit was borrowed or donated. Meals were a gamble. Literally. Every day he would wager against coaches and other players: “If you get me out, I will give you ₹100, if I get you out, you have to give me ₹100\". Plenty of people came to the maidan to play, so there were enough bets to place and win, usually enough to pay for food. “It used to work out for me,\" he says.\r\n….What set Jaiswal apart wasn’t his skill, the coach says, but something that was harder to teach: determination. “I don’t look at the cricket,\" says Singh. “Technique we can teach, we are coaches. The main thing is attitude…. I knew this guy won’t give up.\"\r\nWhen Singh first started training Jaiswal in 2013, the boy was weak, and suffered constantly from knee injuries. Because instead of resting when he needed to, he would train harder in the mistaken belief that he wasn’t fit enough.\r\nBut at that physically formative age, Jaiswal needed proper nutrition rather than misguided determination. “Underprivileged kids, those without facilities, their muscles don’t develop correctly and when you put pressure, they give trouble,\" says Singh. “This was a big challenge with him. But luckily we intervened in time.\"\r\nIn a personal highlights reel that is awash in runs and wickets, Jaiswal believes his strength is his staying power, his ability to not just play big shots but persevere through an innings. It’s a fortitude built out of struggle, of living through uncertainty. “In any situation I can manage, nothing frightens me,\" he says. “I keep fighting, that’s my goal. That mindset was built from there; there is nothing you get for free. You have to do everything for yourself.\"', 'The giant steps of Yashasvi Jaiswal', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-giant-steps-of-yashasvi-jaiswal', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:02:18', '2019-11-11 04:02:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2273', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2274, 1, '2019-11-11 04:01:16', '2019-11-11 04:01:16', 'Nokia, the Finnish pioneer in mobile phones controlled almost 40% of the world’s mobile phone market a little over a decade ago. In no time, it disappeared into oblivion as far as its position as a mobile phone maker is concerned (although its network equipment business continues to thrive). At Marcellus, we look for competitive advantages or moats in a company, but more importantly the sustainability of the same. Nokia is the best demonstration of why competitive advantage is a dynamic concept and failure to strengthen it relentlessly will eventually lead to its downfall. Furthermore, the Nokia example shows why technology is such a weak source of competitive advantage – something that can be replicated if not bettered too soon. But this piece is more about the Scandinavian/Nordic approach to welfare which in turn breeds innovation. It talks about a town in Finland which as one of the key locations for Nokia got severely affected by Nokia’s fall but bounced back quickly as a hub of innovative tech companies, thanks to both the Finnish state’s efforts as well as the culture of corporate responsibility in the Nordics by which Nokia ensured the employees it made redundant were rehabilitated.\r\n“For about a decade, starting in 2005, Nokia suffered setback after setback. Lietsalmi ascribes this slump to a change in the company’s overall approach, from aggressive innovation to something approaching complacency. The company was a world-leader in mobile handsets, he said, when its executive staff decided to adopt a more conservative strategy. “The leadership, including myself, started to think that [success was] not about inventing new things that much, but about managing growth,” he says. Hungry foreign competitors, meanwhile, were innovating at a frantic pace.\r\n“If you stay with that mindset,” he says, wistfully, “then when the growth is over, someone else will come and disrupt the market.” Nokia had grown complacent, he says, under the assumption that the top spot was theirs for good. At the same time, cheaper Chinese exports threatened its more basic models. Though the company attempted to make forays into smartphones with touchscreen devices such as 2004’s 7710 model, its efforts failed to capture the imagination of the public. In 2007, when Apple introduced the iPhone, Nokia simply couldn’t keep up: Despite selling reasonably well initially, its competing N97 model had significant hardware and software problems, and was eventually written off by the company as a “tremendous disappointment.” Within four years, the company had lost 75% of its market value.\r\nBy this point, Oulu had been a key Nokia location for decades.…In 2016, with almost 2,000 lost Nokia jobs, Oulu’s unemployment rate rose to more than 16%, about double the national average….It happens all the time—when the biggest employer in town goes down, it takes the town with it.\r\nBut Oulu wasn’t like Flint, Michigan, or its Rust Belt brothers. Instead, Ala-Mursula tells me, the Nokia layoffs took two key resources—concentrated talent, and intellectual property—and spread them across the region within Finland, like a child blowing the fluff from a dandelion. According to the city government, in 2017 alone, Oulu became home to 1,175 new companies, many of which were started by or employ the talented engineers previously been at Nokia’s helm.\r\nNokia itself is, in part, to thank for these efforts. After Microsoft came in, the company instituted a “bridge program” designed to help its workers find jobs in other companies. “The idea was to give social support to the people who are leaving their jobs with Nokia,” regional manager Sankari told me on a tour of Nokia’s present-day factory and 5G facility. “We help them to be employed, help them find a new career as fast as possible.”\r\nOf the thousand or so people who have been a part of Nokia’s bridge program, more than 80% have found their way onto a new path, Sankari says. Some received coaching; others were given Nokia intellectual property, with a view to starting something new.\r\nSuch Nordic corporate responsibility isn’t totally unusual, Sankari adds, though Nokia’s commitment is particularly deep-rooted. “Quite often the bridge program is referred in Finnish media, at least, as kind of a best practice,” she says. “It’s kind of a Scandinavian system and heritage that you need to take care of your employees so that they can have a good life, even if you might not be able to provide it for them.””', 'Nokia’s collapse turned a sleepy town in Finland into an internet wonderland', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2271-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:01:16', '2019-11-11 04:01:16', '', 2271, 'https://marcellus.in/2271-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2275, 1, '2019-11-11 04:02:18', '2019-11-11 04:02:18', 'Warren Buffet calls it the ovarian lottery. For most of us, the conditions of our birth – financial, geographical and social, determine much of how the rest of our lives pan out. Few people defy this lottery and rise up against all odds. The Mint carries a heart-warming story of a boy who came up from modest beginnings and toiled through teenage years to now being considered the next big thing in Indian cricket. The story is about Yashasvi Jaiswal, the 17yr old Mumbai cricket team’s opening batsman, who as a 10yr old left his family back in a village in UP to come to Mumbai, the home of Indian cricket with nothing but a dream. In some ways he demonstrates that the fact that he came with nothing to lose helped him with the resolve to succeed and even better, learn to deal with success. “Cricket is a game where 40 out of 50 times you aren’t successful,\" he says. “Ten times you succeed. The best thing is to enjoy. The day you get runs it’s important to be happy because other days it’s not so easy. You need to be normal whether it’s going well or not.\"\r\n“When Jaiswal, the fourth of six children, first arrived from Uttar Pradesh to play cricket at the age of 10, the immediate challenge wasn’t how to hit cover drives or score centuries, but more basic: where to sleep, how to eat, where to bathe. In the early months, he stayed with an uncle, then worked briefly at a dairy, from where he was turfed out two months later for working less and playing more.\r\nEventually, he started staying at the Muslim United Club’s tent at Azad Maidan, Mumbai, where the gardeners and ground staff lived—he spent about three years there. He had to use the public toilets at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus and served pani puris in the evenings, at times even to his teammates to earn a spot of cash. “Who would like this?\" he asks. “It didn’t feel good. But I thought it’s okay, let it go.\"\r\nHis kit was borrowed or donated. Meals were a gamble. Literally. Every day he would wager against coaches and other players: “If you get me out, I will give you ₹100, if I get you out, you have to give me ₹100\". Plenty of people came to the maidan to play, so there were enough bets to place and win, usually enough to pay for food. “It used to work out for me,\" he says.\r\n….What set Jaiswal apart wasn’t his skill, the coach says, but something that was harder to teach: determination. “I don’t look at the cricket,\" says Singh. “Technique we can teach, we are coaches. The main thing is attitude…. I knew this guy won’t give up.\"\r\nWhen Singh first started training Jaiswal in 2013, the boy was weak, and suffered constantly from knee injuries. Because instead of resting when he needed to, he would train harder in the mistaken belief that he wasn’t fit enough.\r\nBut at that physically formative age, Jaiswal needed proper nutrition rather than misguided determination. “Underprivileged kids, those without facilities, their muscles don’t develop correctly and when you put pressure, they give trouble,\" says Singh. “This was a big challenge with him. But luckily we intervened in time.\"\r\nIn a personal highlights reel that is awash in runs and wickets, Jaiswal believes his strength is his staying power, his ability to not just play big shots but persevere through an innings. It’s a fortitude built out of struggle, of living through uncertainty. “In any situation I can manage, nothing frightens me,\" he says. “I keep fighting, that’s my goal. That mindset was built from there; there is nothing you get for free. You have to do everything for yourself.\"', 'The giant steps of Yashasvi Jaiswal', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2273-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:02:18', '2019-11-11 04:02:18', '', 2273, 'https://marcellus.in/2273-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2276, 1, '2019-11-10 04:02:29', '2019-11-10 04:02:29', 'Renaissance Technologies, one of the world’s best performing investment firms ever has been an enigma of sorts with very little understanding outside the firm about what underpins this sustained stupendous performance. Exactly how stupendous are we talking – Renaissance’s Medallion fund over the last 30yrs has returned 39% annually net of fees. That’s not all – Medallion’s fees are a whopping 5% (fixed) and 44% (variable). So, gross of fees, the fund returned a staggering 66% annually for 30years. To help unravel some of the underlying secrets behind this, Greg Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal, has authored a new book The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. about the chain smoking, octagenarion, mathematician turned hedge fund manager founder. In this blog, Ben Carlson captures the key lessons about the man and the fund from Greg’s book – many of which are not particularly intuitive.\r\n“Keep it simple. Most quant investors employ multiple models or sleeves within their main strategies. Simons decided the Medallion fund would use a single model to make things easier. Zuckerman explained: The beauty of the approach was that, by combining all their trading signals and portfolio requirements into a single, monolithic model, Renaissance could easily test and add new signals, instantly knowing if the gains from a potential new strategy were likely to top its costs. None of us are going to have a strategy as complex as Ren Tech but it’s nice to know even one of the most complex trading models in the world still keeps things simple in other ways.\r\n\r\nKnow who’s on the other side of your trades. If Renaissance made $100 billion in profits that means someone had to be on the losing end of their trades. One of their researchers joked it was mostly overconfident dentists who frequently traded that they took advantage of.\r\nSimons gave a different answer: Over time, Simons came to the conclusion that the losers probably weren’t those who trade infrequently, such as buy-and-hold individual investors, or even the “treasurer of a multinational corporation,” who adjusts her portfolio of foreign currencies every once in a while to suit her company’s needs, as Simons told his investors. Instead, it seemed Renaissance was exploiting the foibles and faults of fellow speculators, both big and small. The manager of a global hedge fund is guessing on a frequent basis the direction of the French bond market may be a more exploitable participant,” Simons said. There are so many market participants that it can be difficult to discern who is on the other end when you’re buying or selling. But many investors assume the person on the other end is wrong or irrational. Sometimes the person on the other side of your trade could be Jim Simons and his band of PhDs. This should give us all pause when we try to outsmart the market over the short-term.\r\n\r\nSometimes the whys don’t matter. One of the reasons Simons and his researchers have been successful is they didn’t come from an investing background. So they didn’t care about how or why something worked, just that it did. These trends and oddities sometimes happened so quickly that they were unnoticeable to most investors. They were so faint, the team took to calling them ghosts, yet they kept reappearing with enough frequency to be worthy additions to their mix of ideas. Simons had come around to the view that the whys didn’t matter, just that the trades worked. By 1997, though, more than half of the trading signals Simons’s team was discovering were nonintuitive, or those they couldn’t fully understand. At one point someone at Ren Tech fat-fingered a trade causing them to buy five times as many wheat contracts as intended, nudging prices higher. Analysts and the financial media blamed a poor wheat harvest the next day for Ren Tech’s miscue. The whys in the markets don’t always make sense.\r\n\r\nHuman behavior makes the market go round. Even after reading the book it’s still impossible to succinctly explain how Simons figured out how to mint money. But this was the best simplistic explanation from one of his researchers:\r\n“What you’re really modeling is human behavior,” explains Penavic, the researcher. “Humans are most predictable in times of high stress — they act instinctively and panic. Our entire premise was that human actors will react the way humans did in the past…we learned to take advantage.” Many investors claim to take advantage of human nature. Ren tech actually does it.\r\n\r\nBe humble. Zuckerman compared Ren Tech’s models with those of Long-Term Capital Management, another quant fund full of mathematicians and PhDs that blew up spectacularly in the late-1990s: “LTCM’s basic error was believing its models were truth,” Patterson says. “We never believed our models reflected reality — just some aspects of reality.” No one has the markets completely figured out. In fact, Ren Tech claimed to only be right on roughly 51% of their trades. People who think they’re right all the time will eventually be humbled by the markets.\r\n\r\nEven the world’s greatest investors get nervous just like you and me. Last December, as the stock market was in the midst of a 20% decline, Simons became nervous about his investments. Simons was worth $23 billion at this point and knew he would be fine but he hated losing money. So he called up the manager of his family office and asked, “Should we be selling short?” The market bottomed the next day on Christmas Eve.”', 'Non-Intuitive Lessons From the Man Who Solved the Market', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'non-intuitive-lessons-from-the-man-who-solved-the-market', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:03:53', '2019-11-11 04:03:53', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2276', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2277, 1, '2019-11-11 04:03:53', '2019-11-11 04:03:53', 'Renaissance Technologies, one of the world’s best performing investment firms ever has been an enigma of sorts with very little understanding outside the firm about what underpins this sustained stupendous performance. Exactly how stupendous are we talking – Renaissance’s Medallion fund over the last 30yrs has returned 39% annually net of fees. That’s not all – Medallion’s fees are a whopping 5% (fixed) and 44% (variable). So, gross of fees, the fund returned a staggering 66% annually for 30years. To help unravel some of the underlying secrets behind this, Greg Zuckerman of the Wall Street Journal, has authored a new book The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. about the chain smoking, octagenarion, mathematician turned hedge fund manager founder. In this blog, Ben Carlson captures the key lessons about the man and the fund from Greg’s book – many of which are not particularly intuitive.\r\n“Keep it simple. Most quant investors employ multiple models or sleeves within their main strategies. Simons decided the Medallion fund would use a single model to make things easier. Zuckerman explained: The beauty of the approach was that, by combining all their trading signals and portfolio requirements into a single, monolithic model, Renaissance could easily test and add new signals, instantly knowing if the gains from a potential new strategy were likely to top its costs. None of us are going to have a strategy as complex as Ren Tech but it’s nice to know even one of the most complex trading models in the world still keeps things simple in other ways.\r\n\r\nKnow who’s on the other side of your trades. If Renaissance made $100 billion in profits that means someone had to be on the losing end of their trades. One of their researchers joked it was mostly overconfident dentists who frequently traded that they took advantage of.\r\nSimons gave a different answer: Over time, Simons came to the conclusion that the losers probably weren’t those who trade infrequently, such as buy-and-hold individual investors, or even the “treasurer of a multinational corporation,” who adjusts her portfolio of foreign currencies every once in a while to suit her company’s needs, as Simons told his investors. Instead, it seemed Renaissance was exploiting the foibles and faults of fellow speculators, both big and small. The manager of a global hedge fund is guessing on a frequent basis the direction of the French bond market may be a more exploitable participant,” Simons said. There are so many market participants that it can be difficult to discern who is on the other end when you’re buying or selling. But many investors assume the person on the other end is wrong or irrational. Sometimes the person on the other side of your trade could be Jim Simons and his band of PhDs. This should give us all pause when we try to outsmart the market over the short-term.\r\n\r\nSometimes the whys don’t matter. One of the reasons Simons and his researchers have been successful is they didn’t come from an investing background. So they didn’t care about how or why something worked, just that it did. These trends and oddities sometimes happened so quickly that they were unnoticeable to most investors. They were so faint, the team took to calling them ghosts, yet they kept reappearing with enough frequency to be worthy additions to their mix of ideas. Simons had come around to the view that the whys didn’t matter, just that the trades worked. By 1997, though, more than half of the trading signals Simons’s team was discovering were nonintuitive, or those they couldn’t fully understand. At one point someone at Ren Tech fat-fingered a trade causing them to buy five times as many wheat contracts as intended, nudging prices higher. Analysts and the financial media blamed a poor wheat harvest the next day for Ren Tech’s miscue. The whys in the markets don’t always make sense.\r\n\r\nHuman behavior makes the market go round. Even after reading the book it’s still impossible to succinctly explain how Simons figured out how to mint money. But this was the best simplistic explanation from one of his researchers:\r\n“What you’re really modeling is human behavior,” explains Penavic, the researcher. “Humans are most predictable in times of high stress — they act instinctively and panic. Our entire premise was that human actors will react the way humans did in the past…we learned to take advantage.” Many investors claim to take advantage of human nature. Ren tech actually does it.\r\n\r\nBe humble. Zuckerman compared Ren Tech’s models with those of Long-Term Capital Management, another quant fund full of mathematicians and PhDs that blew up spectacularly in the late-1990s: “LTCM’s basic error was believing its models were truth,” Patterson says. “We never believed our models reflected reality — just some aspects of reality.” No one has the markets completely figured out. In fact, Ren Tech claimed to only be right on roughly 51% of their trades. People who think they’re right all the time will eventually be humbled by the markets.\r\n\r\nEven the world’s greatest investors get nervous just like you and me. Last December, as the stock market was in the midst of a 20% decline, Simons became nervous about his investments. Simons was worth $23 billion at this point and knew he would be fine but he hated losing money. So he called up the manager of his family office and asked, “Should we be selling short?” The market bottomed the next day on Christmas Eve.”', 'Non-Intuitive Lessons From the Man Who Solved the Market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2276-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:03:53', '2019-11-11 04:03:53', '', 2276, 'https://marcellus.in/2276-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2278, 1, '2019-11-10 04:04:02', '2019-11-10 04:04:02', 'As some of you might know, at Marcellus we offer clients an unusual fee structure: we charge fees only if we deliver in excess of 8% and our fees are a fifth of the return generated in excess of 8%. Now, an American wealth manager has done some research which provides intellectual justification for our approach.\r\nWestwood, a Dallas based wealth manager, has found that: <em>“The problem for active management is not high fees, but rather that they charge investors during inevitable periods of underperformance…Under the traditional model, “You’re paying a fixed fee for an uncertain outcome,” said Westwood’s Philip DeSantis, head of product management, in an interview. “Beta drives a large portion of the total return for any long-only mandate, even though the active manager gets paid on the entire bucket,” he said…Investors paid more than $105 billion in fees to underperforming large cap managers in the last 10 years as of the end of 2018, according to Morningstar…Over the last five years, investors paid median fees that amounted to 45 percent of the return of market-neutral funds and 63 percent of returns in the multi-alternative fund category. Even in categories thought of as inefficient, such as SMID — a mix of small and mid-cap stocks — only a little more than 40 percent of institutional products outperformed their benchmarks over 10 years, the manager found.”</em>\r\nSo what is the remedy for these sorts of illogical fee structures? <em>“Westwood came up with a radical proposal: Charge zero percent for managing capital and 30 percent for outperformance — a 0-and-30 model.</em>\r\n<em>For example, an investor with a $100 million portfolio that earned 5 percent annually over 20 years would save $9.2 million in fees under a 0-and-30 structure versus a flat 0.40 percent management fee.</em>\r\n<em>But more importantly, paying only for alpha would help investors grapple with volatility. In bad years, investors do not pay any fees. Active managers need to give investors a better probability of winning, DeSantis said.”</em>\r\nSo why is Westwood offering this fee construct? <em>“DeSantis said the effort is designed to beat back the trend to passive, particularly in the most efficient asset classes like large cap stocks. In large caps, for instance, the best managers hold concentrated portfolios, and inevitably have periods of underperformance. If an active manager charges a low base fee combined with a performance fee, there’s little incentive for investors to opt for passive. That’s because the active strategy is only charging for the alpha it creates in the years that it is actually produced, DeSantis explained.”</em>', 'A Long-Only Manager’s Radical, Logical Idea of Zero Management Fees', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-long-only-managers-radical-logical-idea-of-zero-management-fees', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:05:54', '2019-11-11 04:05:54', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2278', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2279, 1, '2019-11-11 04:05:54', '2019-11-11 04:05:54', 'As some of you might know, at Marcellus we offer clients an unusual fee structure: we charge fees only if we deliver in excess of 8% and our fees are a fifth of the return generated in excess of 8%. Now, an American wealth manager has done some research which provides intellectual justification for our approach.\r\nWestwood, a Dallas based wealth manager, has found that: <em>“The problem for active management is not high fees, but rather that they charge investors during inevitable periods of underperformance…Under the traditional model, “You’re paying a fixed fee for an uncertain outcome,” said Westwood’s Philip DeSantis, head of product management, in an interview. “Beta drives a large portion of the total return for any long-only mandate, even though the active manager gets paid on the entire bucket,” he said…Investors paid more than $105 billion in fees to underperforming large cap managers in the last 10 years as of the end of 2018, according to Morningstar…Over the last five years, investors paid median fees that amounted to 45 percent of the return of market-neutral funds and 63 percent of returns in the multi-alternative fund category. Even in categories thought of as inefficient, such as SMID — a mix of small and mid-cap stocks — only a little more than 40 percent of institutional products outperformed their benchmarks over 10 years, the manager found.”</em>\r\nSo what is the remedy for these sorts of illogical fee structures? <em>“Westwood came up with a radical proposal: Charge zero percent for managing capital and 30 percent for outperformance — a 0-and-30 model.</em>\r\n<em>For example, an investor with a $100 million portfolio that earned 5 percent annually over 20 years would save $9.2 million in fees under a 0-and-30 structure versus a flat 0.40 percent management fee.</em>\r\n<em>But more importantly, paying only for alpha would help investors grapple with volatility. In bad years, investors do not pay any fees. Active managers need to give investors a better probability of winning, DeSantis said.”</em>\r\nSo why is Westwood offering this fee construct? <em>“DeSantis said the effort is designed to beat back the trend to passive, particularly in the most efficient asset classes like large cap stocks. In large caps, for instance, the best managers hold concentrated portfolios, and inevitably have periods of underperformance. If an active manager charges a low base fee combined with a performance fee, there’s little incentive for investors to opt for passive. That’s because the active strategy is only charging for the alpha it creates in the years that it is actually produced, DeSantis explained.”</em>', 'A Long-Only Manager’s Radical, Logical Idea of Zero Management Fees', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2278-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:05:54', '2019-11-11 04:05:54', '', 2278, 'https://marcellus.in/2278-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2280, 1, '2019-11-10 04:06:03', '2019-11-10 04:06:03', 'Anyone out there who despairs about the amount of religion, language and caste related bigotry we see in India should despair less. This super piece from Pallavi Aiyer explains how an ultra-conservative country like Japan – where people have told pollsters that they would prefer to work with robots rather than work with foreigners - is learning to embrace other cultures. The catalyst for this change appears to be sport: <em>“…sport is challenging the idea that a Japanese identity must be ethnically determined, allowing for new and more inclusive definitions of “Japaneseness”. The most visible case in point are the Brave Blossoms, Japan’s squad at the ongoing Rugby World Cup tournament that the country is hosting. The team made it to the quarterfinals against the odds. Legions of fans, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, could be seen literally leaping with noisy joy every time a team member scored a try.”</em>\r\nNow comes the interesting part: <em>“The catch is that about half of the Japanese rugby team is either ethnically non-Japanese or biracial. A picture of the Brave Blossoms is almost like an ad for the United Colours of Benetton, suggestive of the kind of rainbow nation Japan has never been and seemed determined not to become. The 31-strong team includes 16 players originally from foreign countries, including Tonga, Samoa, New Zealand, Korea and South Africa. The captain, who is the face of Japanese rugby, is Michael Leitch, a player of mixed New Zealand and Fijian heritage, who has lived in Japan since he was 15.”</em>\r\nAnd this surge in diversity in Japan is not just restricted to rugby: <em>“Beyond rugby, the mixed race Haitian-Japanese tennis star, Naomi Osaka (who has renounced her U.S. citizenship and now plays as Japanese), has been embraced. And a number of Japan’s top athletes at next year’s Olympic Games will not be of “pure” ethnicity. Sprinter Asuka Cambridge, for example, has a Jamaican father. Ace basketball player Rui Hachimura, the first Japanese to make the NBA draft, is half Beninese.”</em>', 'Despatch from Tokyo - The multiracialism of the Brave Blossoms', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'despatch-from-tokyo-the-multiracialism-of-the-brave-blossoms', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:12:00', '2019-11-11 04:12:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2280', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2281, 1, '2019-11-11 04:07:42', '2019-11-11 04:07:42', 'Anyone out there who despairs about the amount of religion, language and caste related bigotry we see in India should despair less. This super piece from Pallavi Aiyer explains how an ultra-conservative country like Japan – where people have told pollsters that they would prefer to work with robots rather than work with foreigners - is learning to embrace other cultures. The catalyst for this change appears to be sport: <em>“…sport is challenging the idea that a Japanese identity must be ethnically determined, allowing for new and more inclusive definitions of “Japaneseness”. The most visible case in point are the Brave Blossoms, Japan’s squad at the ongoing Rugby World Cup tournament that the country is hosting. The team made it to the quarterfinals against the odds. Legions of fans, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, could be seen literally leaping with noisy joy every time a team member scored a try.”</em>\r\nNow comes the interesting part: <em>“The catch is that about half of the Japanese rugby team is either ethnically non-Japanese or biracial. A picture of the Brave Blossoms is almost like an ad for the United Colours of Benetton, suggestive of the kind of rainbow nation Japan has never been and seemed determined not to become. The 31-strong team includes 16 players originally from foreign countries, including Tonga, Samoa, New Zealand, Korea and South Africa. The captain, who is the face of Japanese rugby, is Michael Leitch, a player of mixed New Zealand and Fijian heritage, who has lived in Japan since he was 15.”</em>\r\nAnd this surge in diversity in Japan is not just restricted to rugby: <em>“Beyond rugby, the mixed race Haitian-Japanese tennis star, Naomi Osaka (who has renounced her U.S. citizenship and now plays as Japanese), has been embraced. And a number of Japan’s top athletes at next year’s Olympic Games will not be of “pure” ethnicity. Sprinter Asuka Cambridge, for example, has a Jamaican father. Ace basketball player Rui Hachimura, the first Japanese to make the NBA draft, is half Beninese.”</em>', 'Despatch from Tokyo - The multiracialism of the Brave Blossoms', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2280-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:07:42', '2019-11-11 04:07:42', '', 2280, 'https://marcellus.in/2280-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2282, 1, '2019-11-10 04:07:49', '2019-11-10 04:07:49', 'In his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5753898400&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5753898400%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2Cy6BereDyTp72KqwMeUG1-VEBg\">Principles</a>’, Ray Dalio talks about the concept of ‘Radical transparency’ as the cornerstone of his firm Bridgewater Associates’ culture. Another firm which has adopted the principle is the iconoclastic founder and CEO Reed Hastings’ Netflix, rather controversially at that (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a3e3f82e37&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da3e3f82e37%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdg9Q2fNnDxt72JTBARm-OduEGhA\">here</a> to know about Netflix’s popular ‘Culture deck’). In a book released this week <em>“<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71f7ea61c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd71f7ea61c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpwhKJOzdIuo_dgJezu-ISyCGXSQ\">That Will Never Work: the Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea</a>”</em>, Netflix’s co-founder and first CEO Marc Rudolph talks about an extreme example of such rather ‘blunt’ principle at work which resulted in him getting fired as the CEO by Hastings. Rather than cribbing about it, Rudolph extols the virtue of such a principle which eventually helps take decisions which is right for the business.\r\n<em>“Employees at Netflix in its early days had no set hours and no vacation allotments. The same is true today. There was also a corporate culture of “radical honesty” that also perseveres. Employees evaluate one another and are encouraged to weigh in on strategic decisions. Salary information is transparent.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Randolph describes an evening in 1998 when he got a big dose of Netflix’s radical honesty. It happened after a botched investor pitch and a promotion deal with Sony that went horribly wrong. Mr. Hastings asked to see Mr. Randolph alone and subjected him to a PowerPoint presentation detailing the reasons he was no longer fit to remain chief executive.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Hastings closed his Dell laptop. By the end of the talk, Mr. Randolph was bumped down to president, and Mr. Hastings was the new chief executive. As part of the demotion, Mr. Hastings persuaded Mr. Randolph to give up some 650,000 stock shares, which reduced his Netflix stake to 15 percent.</em>\r\n<em>“Doing it with a PowerPoint slide show perhaps wasn’t the most empathetic gesture,” Mr. Randolph said with a laugh. “But he was right.”</em>\r\n<em>The episode, as described in the book, helps form a portrait of Mr. Hastings as someone whose bluntness results more from a sure sense of what a business needs than from an inner ruthlessness.</em>\r\n<em>“What I really want from the book is to paint Reed as a real person,” Mr. Randolph said. “I hope it comes through that I have this tremendous respect and affection for him, as opposed to bitterness. Most people wouldn’t have had the strength to say that. But he recognized it was the right thing for the company.”</em>', 'Long Before ‘Netflix and Chill,’ He Was the Netflix C.E.O.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'long-before-netflix-and-chill-he-was-the-netflix-c-e-o', '', '', '2019-11-11 06:04:26', '2019-11-11 06:04:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2282', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2283, 1, '2019-11-11 04:09:06', '2019-11-11 04:09:06', 'In his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5753898400&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5753898400%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2Cy6BereDyTp72KqwMeUG1-VEBg\">Principles</a>’, Ray Dalio talks about the concept of ‘Radical transparency’ as the cornerstone of his firm Bridgewater Associates’ culture. Another firm which has adopted the principle is the iconoclastic founder and CEO Reed Hastings’ Netflix, rather controversially at that (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a3e3f82e37&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da3e3f82e37%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdg9Q2fNnDxt72JTBARm-OduEGhA\">here</a> to know about Netflix’s popular ‘Culture deck’). In a book released this week <em>“<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71f7ea61c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd71f7ea61c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpwhKJOzdIuo_dgJezu-ISyCGXSQ\">That Will Never Work: the Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea</a>”</em>, Netflix’s co-founder and first CEO Marc Rudolph talks about an extreme example of such rather ‘blunt’ principle at work which resulted in him getting fired as the CEO by Hastings. Rather than cribbing about it, Rudolph extols the virtue of such a principle which eventually helps take decisions which is right for the business.\r\n<em>“Employees at Netflix in its early days had no set hours and no vacation allotments. The same is true today. There was also a corporate culture of “radical honesty” that also perseveres. Employees evaluate one another and are encouraged to weigh in on strategic decisions. Salary information is transparent.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Randolph describes an evening in 1998 when he got a big dose of Netflix’s radical honesty. It happened after a botched investor pitch and a promotion deal with Sony that went horribly wrong. Mr. Hastings asked to see Mr. Randolph alone and subjected him to a PowerPoint presentation detailing the reasons he was no longer fit to remain chief executive.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Hastings closed his Dell laptop. By the end of the talk, Mr. Randolph was bumped down to president, and Mr. Hastings was the new chief executive. As part of the demotion, Mr. Hastings persuaded Mr. Randolph to give up some 650,000 stock shares, which reduced his Netflix stake to 15 percent.</em>\r\n<em>“Doing it with a PowerPoint slide show perhaps wasn’t the most empathetic gesture,” Mr. Randolph said with a laugh. “But he was right.”</em>\r\n<em>The episode, as described in the book, helps form a portrait of Mr. Hastings as someone whose bluntness results more from a sure sense of what a business needs than from an inner ruthlessness.</em>\r\n<em>“What I really want from the book is to paint Reed as a real person,” Mr. Randolph said. “I hope it comes through that I have this tremendous respect and affection for him, as opposed to bitterness. Most people wouldn’t have had the strength to say that. But he recognized it was the right thing for the company.”</em>', 'Long Before ‘Netflix and Chill,’ He Was the Netflix C.E.O.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2282-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:09:06', '2019-11-11 04:09:06', '', 2282, 'https://marcellus.in/2282-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2284, 1, '2019-11-11 04:12:00', '2019-11-11 04:12:00', 'Anyone out there who despairs about the amount of religion, language and caste related bigotry we see in India should despair less. This super piece from Pallavi Aiyer explains how an ultra-conservative country like Japan – where people have told pollsters that they would prefer to work with robots rather than work with foreigners - is learning to embrace other cultures. The catalyst for this change appears to be sport: <em>“…sport is challenging the idea that a Japanese identity must be ethnically determined, allowing for new and more inclusive definitions of “Japaneseness”. The most visible case in point are the Brave Blossoms, Japan’s squad at the ongoing Rugby World Cup tournament that the country is hosting. The team made it to the quarterfinals against the odds. Legions of fans, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, could be seen literally leaping with noisy joy every time a team member scored a try.”</em>\r\nNow comes the interesting part: <em>“The catch is that about half of the Japanese rugby team is either ethnically non-Japanese or biracial. A picture of the Brave Blossoms is almost like an ad for the United Colours of Benetton, suggestive of the kind of rainbow nation Japan has never been and seemed determined not to become. The 31-strong team includes 16 players originally from foreign countries, including Tonga, Samoa, New Zealand, Korea and South Africa. The captain, who is the face of Japanese rugby, is Michael Leitch, a player of mixed New Zealand and Fijian heritage, who has lived in Japan since he was 15.”</em>\r\nAnd this surge in diversity in Japan is not just restricted to rugby: <em>“Beyond rugby, the mixed race Haitian-Japanese tennis star, Naomi Osaka (who has renounced her U.S. citizenship and now plays as Japanese), has been embraced. And a number of Japan’s top athletes at next year’s Olympic Games will not be of “pure” ethnicity. Sprinter Asuka Cambridge, for example, has a Jamaican father. Ace basketball player Rui Hachimura, the first Japanese to make the NBA draft, is half Beninese.”</em>', 'Despatch from Tokyo - The multiracialism of the Brave Blossoms', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2280-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:12:00', '2019-11-11 04:12:00', '', 2280, 'https://marcellus.in/2280-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2285, 1, '2019-11-11 04:14:43', '2019-11-11 04:14:43', 'In his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5753898400&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5753898400%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2Cy6BereDyTp72KqwMeUG1-VEBg\">Principles</a>’, Ray Dalio talks about the concept of ‘Radical transparency’ as the cornerstone of his firm Bridgewater Associates’ culture. Another firm which has adopted the principle is the iconoclastic founder and CEO Reed Hastings’ Netflix, rather controversially at that (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a3e3f82e37&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da3e3f82e37%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdg9Q2fNnDxt72JTBARm-OduEGhA\">here</a> to know about Netflix’s popular ‘Culture deck’). In a book released this week <em>“<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71f7ea61c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd71f7ea61c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpwhKJOzdIuo_dgJezu-ISyCGXSQ\">That Will Never Work: the Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea</a>”</em>, Netflix’s co-founder and first CEO Marc Rudolph talks about an extreme example of such rather ‘blunt’ principle at work which resulted in him getting fired as the CEO by Hastings. Rather than cribbing about it, Rudolph extols the virtue of such a principle which eventually helps take decisions which is right for the business.\r\n<em>“Employees at Netflix in its early days had no set hours and no vacation allotments. The same is true today. There was also a corporate culture of “radical honesty” that also perseveres. Employees evaluate one another and are encouraged to weigh in on strategic decisions. Salary information is transparent.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Randolph describes an evening in 1998 when he got a big dose of Netflix’s radical honesty. It happened after a botched investor pitch and a promotion deal with Sony that went horribly wrong. Mr. Hastings asked to see Mr. Randolph alone and subjected him to a PowerPoint presentation detailing the reasons he was no longer fit to remain chief executive.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Hastings closed his Dell laptop. By the end of the talk, Mr. Randolph was bumped down to president, and Mr. Hastings was the new chief executive. As part of the demotion, Mr. Hastings persuaded Mr. Randolph to give up some 650,000 stock shares, which reduced his Netflix stake to 15 percent.</em>\r\n<em>“Doing it with a PowerPoint slide show perhaps wasn’t the most empathetic gesture,” Mr. Randolph said with a laugh. “But he was right.”</em>\r\n<em>The episode, as described in the book, helps form a portrait of Mr. Hastings as someone whose bluntness results more from a sure sense of what a business needs than from an inner ruthlessness.</em>\r\n<em>“What I really want from the book is to paint Reed as a real person,” Mr. Randolph said. “I hope it comes through that I have this tremendous respect and affection for him, as opposed to bitterness. Most people wouldn’t have had the strength to say that. But he recognized it was the right thing for the company.”</em>', 'Long Before ‘Netflix and Chill,’ He Was the Netflix C.E.O.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2282-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 04:14:43', '2019-11-11 04:14:43', '', 2282, 'https://marcellus.in/2282-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(2526, 1, '2019-11-26 03:51:56', '2019-11-26 03:51:56', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\"><strong>The complete breakdown of the relationship between Nifty earnings and GDP growth raises major questions about India’s premier benchmark index. Whilst the underlying drivers of this relationship breakdown are non-trivial (and merit greater investigation), unless repaired this relationship breakdown could have major adverse consequences for the Indian economy.  </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Our 15<sup>th</sup> Feb note…</strong>\r\nOn 15<sup>th</sup> February 2019, we wrote a note on why the Nifty is no longer a play on the Indian economy. Last week, The Economic Times (ET) invited us to speak on this subject at a conference hosted by them. That compelled us to do some more research on this unusual phenomenon. What follows below is a summary of my address to the delegates at the ET’s conference.\r\n\r\n<strong>…has triggered a broader debate</strong>\r\nThere are a couple of puzzling macroeconomic trends which have developed in India over the past decade.\r\n\r\n<em>Puzzle 1: The United States is growing corporate earnings twice as fast as India</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"><img class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnImage CToWUd a6T\" tabindex=\"0\" src=\"https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/RNHkXKP3H2kcT7I7m77H6-51sgDuPB40avtWczCyXq0XKQBLA9cBg8cekxapI6_I6v5DrC64mG28jr7NGUJlr9OqcuFfVv09rSiEazq8-PceduNHoR4sB5sqGsfKu0vLUuptmG--XbnibbY0i5skOpCuyvVQr2KT0-o=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407/images/3a120b87-7c3f-4382-bb73-38f81870c4e9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"564\" align=\"center\" /></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">Over CY09-19, the Nifty, has seen its earnings grow at a mere 4.3% per annum in USD terms. In America on the other hand, the S&amp;P 500’s earnings has grown at 8.6% per annum i.e. twice as fast as the Nifty. How could this have happened during a decade in which India’s real GDP growth at around 6-7% was nearly twice that of America?\r\n\r\n<em>Puzzle 2: Indian GDP growth and Nifty EPS growth does not seem to correlate.</em></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"><img class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnImage CToWUd a6T\" tabindex=\"0\" src=\"https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/LpGHl9YK8pANFuz4XcEtRqJXKiQoSXle3vgxCo_BQCo0qy9460q3p0jMT0DxisYfZE8yzy2CApBnlzxLwAF3dlh5Z6hwZc2rHTu_JoXicD2TfIlGVtzFOwGNwDSBaAX_x6qVsC2gyIdOYrTv-yB8GrLlfy0BgUWL9gw=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407/images/164d84d5-7c56-4736-9ed5-f61023752046.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"518\" align=\"center\" /></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_-184450620494799931mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\nThe relationship between Nifty EPS growth and GDP growth seems to have completely broken down in the last five years. Note:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The growing gap between the two lines in the chart above; and</li>\r\n 	<li>The fact that the lines often go in opposite directions.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, the Nifty no longer appears to be a play on the Indian economy.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Nifty no longer captures the dynamism of the Indian economy a good place to start is the index as it stood ten years ago. On the face of it, the ten year share price return from investing in the Nifty is a very respectable 15% but that is a deceptively flattering figure. A better way to understand the quality (or lack thereof) of the Nifty is to look at the return from investing in the underlying fifty stocks which were in the Nifty ten years ago – such a portfolio (equal weighted) would give you a return of a mere <u>7.7% per annum</u> (CAGR over ten years) i.e. significantly lower than India’s nominal GDP growth which over the preceding decade has been around 12% per annum.\r\n\r\n<strong>Why is this happening?</strong>\r\nThese trends belie easy explanations. It is possible that the Indian economy has altered so radically over the past decade that the Nifty no longer captures the development of the economy. (A market cap weighted index like the Nifty will mirror the past rather than reflecting what the best companies of tomorrow might be. A fundamentally weighted, say ROCE weighted index, will – arguably – do a better job of capturing tomorrow’s stars.)\r\n\r\nSignificant drivers of the Indian economy are no longer in the listed market. For example, taxi aggregators (Ola, Uber), online retailers (Flipkart, Amazon), electronics goods manufacturers, car manufacturers other than Maruti, hotels other than Taj, Oberoi and Lemontree, etc – basically most of the things that affluent India buys beyond FMCG and apparel – is no longer in the listed market. These companies are able to access capital at low cost without entering the stockmarket and therefore their contribution to GDP is not reflected in the stockmarket. In contrast, the US stockmarket us doing the opposite – US companies are increasingly generating their profit growth from Emerging Markets. As a result, the S&amp;P500’s earnings are growing much faster than the American economy.\r\n\r\nThere are is another potential explanation for the disconnect identified above: namely, the composition of the Nifty kills the link between GDP &amp; EPS growth:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Financial Services accounts for 39% of the Nifty’s weight, up from 20% in 1995. As per FY19 Gross Value Added (GVA) data provided by the Government of India, ‘Financial Services, Real Estate &amp; Professional Services’ is 21% of the Indian economy i.e. <strong>Financial Services seems to be significantly over represented in the Nifty.</strong></li>\r\n 	<li>Auto + Media + Telecom form 8% of the Nifty’s weight, down from 12% in 1995. As per FY19 GVA data, ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’ is 19% of the Indian economy i.e. <strong>Auto seems to be significantly under represented in the Nifty.</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Construction accounts for 4% of the Nifty’s weight. As per FY19 GVA data, ‘Construction’ is 7.5% of the Indian economy i.e. <strong>Construction seems to be under represented in the Nifty.</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nDoes the composition of the Nifty matter? This is India’s premier benchmark index. This is the medium via which most investors tap into India’s economic growth. As the Indian economy undergoes structural changes, the Nifty’s composition needs to be relooked at. Otherwise, we will run into four big problems beyond the obvious issue that the Nifty will no longer be a play on the Indian economy:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The cost of capital for listed companies will get distorted. Over represented sectors (e.g. Financial Services will get capital at too low a cost (and that in turn results in bubbles in the Financial Services sector eg. the NBFC bubble which is blowing up in front of us at huge cost to the Indian economy). In contrast, under represented sectors (e.g. Auto) will have to pay over the odds for capital (when was the last time you saw an Indian auto company going public?).</li>\r\n 	<li>As described in our 19<sup>th</sup> November 2019 note on John Bogle, passive indexing has transformed the lives of millions of American investors (see:  <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/bogle-diving-deeper-to-learn-more-from-the-legend/\" target=\"_blank\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/bogle-diving-deeper-to-learn-more-from-the-legend/</a>). For the advancement of financial savings in India, the Indian stockmarket has to efficiently expedite low cost passive investing. The rise of low cost passive indexing will be stymied if the benchmark index does not capture India’s economic growth.</li>\r\n 	<li>The inability of the Indian stockmarket to provide lower cost funding than the Private Equity (PE) firms is depriving the Indian stockmarket of high quality companies which can dominate their sectors and help the stockmarket participate in India’s economic growth. The more important foreign companies and PE funded companies become in India, the bigger the questions mark around the relevance of the Indian stockmarket as a medium via which ordinary investors can benefit from India’s economic growth.</li>\r\n 	<li>Given that nearly two-thirds of the Nifty constituents have failed to give a return above the cost of capital, large cap Indian funds which draw their constituents largely from the Nifty are a difficult investment to justify. On the other hand, even a relatively simple method – like our Consistent Compounders algorithm which focuses on a select subset of large cap stocks – is able to deliver returns which are consistently above the cost of capital. Click here to see how we are doing this: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa762ed348&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daa762ed348%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1574912760549000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4ibTD7z8GTkIn8_WemrJRgKRffw\">https://marcellus.in/<wbr />newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-<wbr />portfolio-will-gain-from-the-<wbr />ongoing-crisis/</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit  <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources\" target=\"_blank\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a><wbr />\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>\r\n\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Nifty & Indian GDP: A Complete Breakdown in Relationship', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nifty-indian-gdp-a-complete-breakdown-in-relationship', '', '', '2019-11-27 03:56:44', '2019-11-27 03:56:44', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2526', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2680, 1, '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '“Work is worship” is a popular saying attributed to several people from the 12<sup>th</sup> century philosopher Basavanna to Gandhi. Yet 20<sup>th</sup> century economists believed as humans trade off between work and leisure and they get more productive at work or as nations become richer, people will spend fewer hours working into the 21<sup>st</sup> century. However, that hasn’t particularly translated into reality. Indeed, in America, a phenomenon the author calls Workism has become prevalent, especially among the rich.\r\n<em>What is workism? It is the belief that work is not only necessary to economic production, but also the centerpiece of one’s identity and life’s purpose; and the belief that any policy to promote human welfare must </em><em>always </em>encourage more work.\r\n<em>Homo industrious</em><em> is not new to the American landscape. The American dream—that hoary mythology that hard work always guarantees upward mobility—has for more than a century made the U.S. obsessed with material success and the exhaustive striving required to earn it.</em>\r\nIn reality, for the whole American population, working hours has indeed reduced for the longest time except for the rich.\r\n<em>In 1980, the highest-earning men actually worked fewer hours per week than middle-class and low-income men, according to a survey by the Minneapolis Fed. But that’s changed. By 2005, the richest 10 percent of married men had the </em><em>longest </em><em>average workweek. In that same time, college-educated men reduced their leisure time more than any other group. Today, it is fair to say that elite American men have transformed themselves into the world’s premier workaholics, toiling longer hours than both poorer men in the U.S. and rich men in similarly rich countries.</em>\r\n<em>This shift defies economic logic—and economic history. The rich have always worked less than the poor, because they could afford to. The landed gentry of preindustrial Europe dined, danced, and gossiped, while serfs toiled without end. In the early 20th century, rich Americans used their ample downtime to buy weekly movie tickets and dabble in sports. Today’s rich American men can afford vastly more downtime. But they have used their wealth to buy the strangest of prizes: more work!</em>\r\nThis obsession with work has passed on to the millennial generation too, who are supposedly more liberated in their approach to life.\r\n<em>“…in a recent Pew Research report on the epidemic of youth anxiety, 95 percent of teens </em><em>said “having a job or career they enjoy” would be “extremely or very important” to them as an adult. This ranked higher than any other priority, including “helping other people who are in need” (81 percent) or getting married (47 percent). Finding meaning at work beats family and kindness as the top ambition of today’s young people.</em>\r\n<em>American Millennials have been collectively defined by two external traumas. The first is student debt. Millennials are the most educated generation ever, a distinction that should have made them rich and secure. But rising educational attainment has come at a steep price. Since 2007, outstanding student debt has grown by almost $1 trillion, roughly tripling in just 12 years. And since the economy cratered in 2008, average wages for young graduates have stagnated—making it even harder to pay off loans.</em>\r\n<em>The second external trauma of the Millennial generation has been the disturbance of social media, which has amplified the pressure to craft an image of success—for oneself, for one’s friends and colleagues, and even for one’s parents.”</em>\r\n<em>“The problem with this gospel—</em><em>Your dream job is out there, so never stop hustling</em><em>—is that it’s a blueprint for spiritual and physical exhaustion. Long hours don’t make anybody more productive or creative; they make people </em><em>stressed, tired and bitter. But the overwork myths survive “because they justify the extreme wealth created for a small group of elite techies,” Griffith writes.</em>\r\n<em>Workism offers a perilous trade-off. On the one hand, Americans’ high regard for hard work may be responsible for its special place in world history and its reputation as the global capital of start-up success. A culture that worships the pursuit of extreme success will likely produce some of it. But extreme success is a falsifiable god, which rejects the vast majority of its worshippers. Our jobs were never meant to shoulder the burdens of a faith, and they are buckling under the weight. A staggering 87 percent of employees are not engaged at their job, according to </em><em>Gallup. That number is rising by the year.”</em>\r\nSo how do you resolve this?\r\n<em>“One solution to this epidemic of disengagement would be to make work less awful. But maybe the better prescription is to make work less </em><em>central.</em>\r\n<em>This can start with public policy. There is new enthusiasm for universal policies—like universal basic income, parental leave, subsidized child care, and a child allowance—which would make long working hours less necessary for all Americans. These changes alone might not be enough to reduce Americans’ devotion to work for work’s sake, since it’s the rich who are most devoted. But they would spare the vast majority of the public from the pathological workaholism that grips today’s elites, and perhaps create a bottom-up movement to displace work as the centerpiece of the secular American identity.</em>\r\n<em>The vast majority of workers are happier when they spend more hours with family, friends, and partners, according to research conducted by Ashley Whillans, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School. In one study, she concluded that the happiest young workers were those who said around the time of their college graduation that they preferred careers that gave them time away from the office to focus on their relationships and their hobbies.</em>\r\n<em>How quaint that sounds. But it’s the same perspective that inspired the economist John Maynard Keynes to predict in 1930 that Americans would eventually have five-day weekends, rather than five-day weeks. It is the belief—the faith, even—that work is not life’s product, but its currency. What we choose to buy with it is the ultimate project of living.”</em>', 'Workism Is Making Americans Miserable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2679-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '', 2679, 'https://marcellus.in/2679-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2679, 1, '2020-01-05 04:37:38', '2020-01-05 04:37:38', '“Work is worship” is a popular saying attributed to several people from the 12<sup>th</sup> century philosopher Basavanna to Gandhi. Yet 20<sup>th</sup> century economists believed as humans trade off between work and leisure and they get more productive at work or as nations become richer, people will spend fewer hours working into the 21<sup>st</sup> century. However, that hasn’t particularly translated into reality. Indeed, in America, a phenomenon the author calls Workism has become prevalent, especially among the rich.\r\n<em>What is workism? It is the belief that work is not only necessary to economic production, but also the centerpiece of one’s identity and life’s purpose; and the belief that any policy to promote human welfare must </em><em>always </em>encourage more work.\r\n<em>Homo industrious</em><em> is not new to the American landscape. The American dream—that hoary mythology that hard work always guarantees upward mobility—has for more than a century made the U.S. obsessed with material success and the exhaustive striving required to earn it.</em>\r\nIn reality, for the whole American population, working hours has indeed reduced for the longest time except for the rich.\r\n<em>In 1980, the highest-earning men actually worked fewer hours per week than middle-class and low-income men, according to a survey by the Minneapolis Fed. But that’s changed. By 2005, the richest 10 percent of married men had the </em><em>longest </em><em>average workweek. In that same time, college-educated men reduced their leisure time more than any other group. Today, it is fair to say that elite American men have transformed themselves into the world’s premier workaholics, toiling longer hours than both poorer men in the U.S. and rich men in similarly rich countries.</em>\r\n<em>This shift defies economic logic—and economic history. The rich have always worked less than the poor, because they could afford to. The landed gentry of preindustrial Europe dined, danced, and gossiped, while serfs toiled without end. In the early 20th century, rich Americans used their ample downtime to buy weekly movie tickets and dabble in sports. Today’s rich American men can afford vastly more downtime. But they have used their wealth to buy the strangest of prizes: more work!</em>\r\nThis obsession with work has passed on to the millennial generation too, who are supposedly more liberated in their approach to life.\r\n<em>“…in a recent Pew Research report on the epidemic of youth anxiety, 95 percent of teens </em><em>said “having a job or career they enjoy” would be “extremely or very important” to them as an adult. This ranked higher than any other priority, including “helping other people who are in need” (81 percent) or getting married (47 percent). Finding meaning at work beats family and kindness as the top ambition of today’s young people.</em>\r\n<em>American Millennials have been collectively defined by two external traumas. The first is student debt. Millennials are the most educated generation ever, a distinction that should have made them rich and secure. But rising educational attainment has come at a steep price. Since 2007, outstanding student debt has grown by almost $1 trillion, roughly tripling in just 12 years. And since the economy cratered in 2008, average wages for young graduates have stagnated—making it even harder to pay off loans.</em>\r\n<em>The second external trauma of the Millennial generation has been the disturbance of social media, which has amplified the pressure to craft an image of success—for oneself, for one’s friends and colleagues, and even for one’s parents.”</em>\r\n<em>“The problem with this gospel—</em><em>Your dream job is out there, so never stop hustling</em><em>—is that it’s a blueprint for spiritual and physical exhaustion. Long hours don’t make anybody more productive or creative; they make people </em><em>stressed, tired and bitter. But the overwork myths survive “because they justify the extreme wealth created for a small group of elite techies,” Griffith writes.</em>\r\n<em>Workism offers a perilous trade-off. On the one hand, Americans’ high regard for hard work may be responsible for its special place in world history and its reputation as the global capital of start-up success. A culture that worships the pursuit of extreme success will likely produce some of it. But extreme success is a falsifiable god, which rejects the vast majority of its worshippers. Our jobs were never meant to shoulder the burdens of a faith, and they are buckling under the weight. A staggering 87 percent of employees are not engaged at their job, according to </em><em>Gallup. That number is rising by the year.”</em>\r\nSo how do you resolve this?\r\n<em>“One solution to this epidemic of disengagement would be to make work less awful. But maybe the better prescription is to make work less </em><em>central.</em>\r\n<em>This can start with public policy. There is new enthusiasm for universal policies—like universal basic income, parental leave, subsidized child care, and a child allowance—which would make long working hours less necessary for all Americans. These changes alone might not be enough to reduce Americans’ devotion to work for work’s sake, since it’s the rich who are most devoted. But they would spare the vast majority of the public from the pathological workaholism that grips today’s elites, and perhaps create a bottom-up movement to displace work as the centerpiece of the secular American identity.</em>\r\n<em>The vast majority of workers are happier when they spend more hours with family, friends, and partners, according to research conducted by Ashley Whillans, an assistant professor at Harvard Business School. In one study, she concluded that the happiest young workers were those who said around the time of their college graduation that they preferred careers that gave them time away from the office to focus on their relationships and their hobbies.</em>\r\n<em>How quaint that sounds. But it’s the same perspective that inspired the economist John Maynard Keynes to predict in 1930 that Americans would eventually have five-day weekends, rather than five-day weeks. It is the belief—the faith, even—that work is not life’s product, but its currency. What we choose to buy with it is the ultimate project of living.”</em>', 'Workism Is Making Americans Miserable', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'workism-is-making-americans-miserable', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '2020-01-06 04:38:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2679', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2678, 1, '2020-01-06 04:37:31', '2020-01-06 04:37:31', '15 years ago when US mortgage lenders relaxed their lending criteria for individuals with relative low ability to service their debts, they sowed the seeds of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This Bloomberg article purports that something similar is happening in the US junk bond market now. (It is interesting how articles on accounting shenanigans are proliferating in the US financial press as highlighted by some of the pieces we have featured in “3 Longs &amp; 3 Shorts” over the past couple of months.)\r\n<em>“…fuzzy numbers may be creating a false perception of safety in the $2.5 trillion market for low-rated corporate debt. That market is a key source of funds for companies with less-than-stellar credit and for private equity firms, which typically load the businesses they acquire with debt to boost returns. Institutional investors have increased their purchases of high-risk loans and bonds over the past decade, as near-zero interest rates made other fixed-income assets less attractive. That demand helped make bigger and riskier loans possible.”</em>\r\nSo how are American corporates juicing up their EBITDA? <em>“Ebitda…[is] seen as a relatively direct measurement of a company’s ability to generate cash, because it strips out the effects of management’s decisions on capital investments and indebtedness. In theory it provides evidence of how much money the company could have available to service its debt.</em>\r\n<em>Over the past several years, Wall Street lawyers and advisers have worked to squeeze generous adjustments into the Ebitda calculation, helping make purchase prices look smaller and debt loads more manageable. Exela Technologies Inc., a document processing company formed through the merger of SourceHOV and Novitex, relied on several rounds of adjustments to boost Ebitda when it borrowed money to finance the deal in 2017.</em>\r\n<em>After removing interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, plus some one-time costs, the company arrived at Ebitda of $247 million. In another round of adjustments, Exela counted expected benefits from shutting offices, cutting workers, and renegotiating vendor contracts. The resulting “further adjusted Ebitda” showed it pulling in $353 million for the 12 months ended on March 31, 2017. Based on generally accepted accounting principles, the combined company would have lost almost $63 million over that period…</em>\r\n<em>In perhaps the most flagrant example of creative Ebitda, office-sharing company WeWork turned a $933 million loss into $233 million of what it called “community adjusted Ebitda” last year, when it issued its debut bond. The widely ridiculed—and since discontinued—metric excluded even basic general and administrative expenses. “We have never seen a net negative adjustment to Ebitda—it only goes up,” says Jason Dillow, CEO of Bardin Hill, a credit investment firm.”</em>\r\nSo how significant is the risk posed by EBITDA massaging to the US bond market? <em>“Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS Group AG, says even a garden-variety recession in the next year or two could cause earnings for the weaker borrowers to drop by as much as 40% from peak to trough, rivaling the declines seen during the global financial crisis. Such a meltdown of corporate balance sheets could fuel a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies….</em>\r\n<em>In the first quarter of this year, companies issuing leveraged loans for mergers and acquisitions inflated their Ebitda by an average 43%, according to Covenant Review, an independent research firm that analyzes debt documents for investors. That’s the highest of any quarter in the data, which dates to 2015.</em>\r\n<em>Evidence suggests that when companies make optimistic adjustments to Ebitda, disappointments are the norm soon after a deal is done. According to a recent study by S&amp;P Global Ratings, companies involved in a merger or a leveraged buyout in 2015 missed their own earnings projections by an average 29% in the first year following the deal. For deals originating in 2016, the projections were off 35%.”</em>', 'Fuzzy Math That Fuelled Junk Debt Boom Is Sparking Jitters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2677-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:37:31', '2020-01-06 04:37:31', '', 2677, 'https://marcellus.in/2677-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2677, 1, '2020-01-05 04:37:31', '2020-01-05 04:37:31', '15 years ago when US mortgage lenders relaxed their lending criteria for individuals with relative low ability to service their debts, they sowed the seeds of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This Bloomberg article purports that something similar is happening in the US junk bond market now. (It is interesting how articles on accounting shenanigans are proliferating in the US financial press as highlighted by some of the pieces we have featured in “3 Longs &amp; 3 Shorts” over the past couple of months.)\r\n<em>“…fuzzy numbers may be creating a false perception of safety in the $2.5 trillion market for low-rated corporate debt. That market is a key source of funds for companies with less-than-stellar credit and for private equity firms, which typically load the businesses they acquire with debt to boost returns. Institutional investors have increased their purchases of high-risk loans and bonds over the past decade, as near-zero interest rates made other fixed-income assets less attractive. That demand helped make bigger and riskier loans possible.”</em>\r\nSo how are American corporates juicing up their EBITDA? <em>“Ebitda…[is] seen as a relatively direct measurement of a company’s ability to generate cash, because it strips out the effects of management’s decisions on capital investments and indebtedness. In theory it provides evidence of how much money the company could have available to service its debt.</em>\r\n<em>Over the past several years, Wall Street lawyers and advisers have worked to squeeze generous adjustments into the Ebitda calculation, helping make purchase prices look smaller and debt loads more manageable. Exela Technologies Inc., a document processing company formed through the merger of SourceHOV and Novitex, relied on several rounds of adjustments to boost Ebitda when it borrowed money to finance the deal in 2017.</em>\r\n<em>After removing interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, plus some one-time costs, the company arrived at Ebitda of $247 million. In another round of adjustments, Exela counted expected benefits from shutting offices, cutting workers, and renegotiating vendor contracts. The resulting “further adjusted Ebitda” showed it pulling in $353 million for the 12 months ended on March 31, 2017. Based on generally accepted accounting principles, the combined company would have lost almost $63 million over that period…</em>\r\n<em>In perhaps the most flagrant example of creative Ebitda, office-sharing company WeWork turned a $933 million loss into $233 million of what it called “community adjusted Ebitda” last year, when it issued its debut bond. The widely ridiculed—and since discontinued—metric excluded even basic general and administrative expenses. “We have never seen a net negative adjustment to Ebitda—it only goes up,” says Jason Dillow, CEO of Bardin Hill, a credit investment firm.”</em>\r\nSo how significant is the risk posed by EBITDA massaging to the US bond market? <em>“Matthew Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS Group AG, says even a garden-variety recession in the next year or two could cause earnings for the weaker borrowers to drop by as much as 40% from peak to trough, rivaling the declines seen during the global financial crisis. Such a meltdown of corporate balance sheets could fuel a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies….</em>\r\n<em>In the first quarter of this year, companies issuing leveraged loans for mergers and acquisitions inflated their Ebitda by an average 43%, according to Covenant Review, an independent research firm that analyzes debt documents for investors. That’s the highest of any quarter in the data, which dates to 2015.</em>\r\n<em>Evidence suggests that when companies make optimistic adjustments to Ebitda, disappointments are the norm soon after a deal is done. According to a recent study by S&amp;P Global Ratings, companies involved in a merger or a leveraged buyout in 2015 missed their own earnings projections by an average 29% in the first year following the deal. For deals originating in 2016, the projections were off 35%.”</em>', 'Fuzzy Math That Fuelled Junk Debt Boom Is Sparking Jitters', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fuzzy-math-that-fuelled-junk-debt-boom-is-sparking-jitters', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:49:47', '2020-01-06 04:49:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2677', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2292, 1, '2019-11-11 06:03:28', '2019-11-11 06:03:28', 'In his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5753898400&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5753898400%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2Cy6BereDyTp72KqwMeUG1-VEBg\">Principles</a>’, Ray Dalio talks about the concept of ‘Radical transparency’ as the cornerstone of his firm Bridgewater Associates’ culture. Another firm which has adopted the principle is the iconoclastic founder and CEO Reed Hastings’ Netflix, rather controversially at that (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a3e3f82e37&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da3e3f82e37%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdg9Q2fNnDxt72JTBARm-OduEGhA\">here</a> to know about Netflix’s popular ‘Culture deck’). In a book released this week <em>“<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71f7ea61c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd71f7ea61c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpwhKJOzdIuo_dgJezu-ISyCGXSQ\">That Will Never Work: the Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea</a>”</em>, Netflix’s co-founder and first CEO Marc Rudolph talks about an extreme example of such rather ‘blunt’ principle at work which resulted in him getting fired as the CEO by Hastings. Rather than cribbing about it, Rudolph extols the virtue of such a principle which eventually helps take decisions which is right for the business.\r\n<em>“Employees at Netflix in its early days had no set hours and no vacation allotments. The same is true today. There was also a corporate culture of “radical honesty” that also perseveres. Employees evaluate one another and are encouraged to weigh in on strategic decisions. Salary information is transparent.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Randolph describes an evening in 1998 when he got a big dose of Netflix’s radical honesty. It happened after a botched investor pitch and a promotion deal with Sony that went horribly wrong. Mr. Hastings asked to see Mr. Randolph alone and subjected him to a PowerPoint presentation detailing the reasons he was no longer fit to remain chief executive.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Hastings closed his Dell laptop. By the end of the talk, Mr. Randolph was bumped down to president, and Mr. Hastings was the new chief executive. As part of the demotion, Mr. Hastings persuaded Mr. Randolph to give up some 650,000 stock shares, which reduced his Netflix stake to 15 percent.</em>\r\n<em>“Doing it with a PowerPoint slide show perhaps wasn’t the most empathetic gesture,” Mr. Randolph said with a laugh. “But he was right.”</em>\r\n<em>The episode, as described in the book, helps form a portrait of Mr. Hastings as someone whose bluntness results more from a sure sense of what a business needs than from an inner ruthlessness.</em>\r\n<em>“What I really want from the book is to paint Reed as a real person,” Mr. Randolph said. “I hope it comes through that I have this tremendous respect and affection for him, as opposed to bitterness. Most people wouldn’t have had the strength to say that. But he recognized it was the right thing for the company.”</em>', 'Long Before ‘Netflix and Chill,’ He Was the Netflix C.E.O.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2282-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 06:03:28', '2019-11-11 06:03:28', '', 2282, 'https://marcellus.in/2282-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2293, 1, '2019-11-11 06:04:26', '2019-11-11 06:04:26', 'In his book ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5753898400&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5753898400%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2Cy6BereDyTp72KqwMeUG1-VEBg\">Principles</a>’, Ray Dalio talks about the concept of ‘Radical transparency’ as the cornerstone of his firm Bridgewater Associates’ culture. Another firm which has adopted the principle is the iconoclastic founder and CEO Reed Hastings’ Netflix, rather controversially at that (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a3e3f82e37&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da3e3f82e37%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdg9Q2fNnDxt72JTBARm-OduEGhA\">here</a> to know about Netflix’s popular ‘Culture deck’). In a book released this week <em>“<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d71f7ea61c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd71f7ea61c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573530032591000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpwhKJOzdIuo_dgJezu-ISyCGXSQ\">That Will Never Work: the Birth of Netflix and the Amazing Life of an Idea</a>”</em>, Netflix’s co-founder and first CEO Marc Rudolph talks about an extreme example of such rather ‘blunt’ principle at work which resulted in him getting fired as the CEO by Hastings. Rather than cribbing about it, Rudolph extols the virtue of such a principle which eventually helps take decisions which is right for the business.\r\n<em>“Employees at Netflix in its early days had no set hours and no vacation allotments. The same is true today. There was also a corporate culture of “radical honesty” that also perseveres. Employees evaluate one another and are encouraged to weigh in on strategic decisions. Salary information is transparent.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Randolph describes an evening in 1998 when he got a big dose of Netflix’s radical honesty. It happened after a botched investor pitch and a promotion deal with Sony that went horribly wrong. Mr. Hastings asked to see Mr. Randolph alone and subjected him to a PowerPoint presentation detailing the reasons he was no longer fit to remain chief executive.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Hastings closed his Dell laptop. By the end of the talk, Mr. Randolph was bumped down to president, and Mr. Hastings was the new chief executive. As part of the demotion, Mr. Hastings persuaded Mr. Randolph to give up some 650,000 stock shares, which reduced his Netflix stake to 15 percent.</em>\r\n<em>“Doing it with a PowerPoint slide show perhaps wasn’t the most empathetic gesture,” Mr. Randolph said with a laugh. “But he was right.”</em>\r\n<em>The episode, as described in the book, helps form a portrait of Mr. Hastings as someone whose bluntness results more from a sure sense of what a business needs than from an inner ruthlessness.</em>\r\n<em>“What I really want from the book is to paint Reed as a real person,” Mr. Randolph said. “I hope it comes through that I have this tremendous respect and affection for him, as opposed to bitterness. Most people wouldn’t have had the strength to say that. But he recognized it was the right thing for the company.”</em>', 'Long Before ‘Netflix and Chill,’ He Was the Netflix C.E.O.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2282-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 06:04:26', '2019-11-11 06:04:26', '', 2282, 'https://marcellus.in/2282-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2294, 1, '2019-11-11 09:19:49', '2019-11-11 09:19:49', '', 'Marcellus_Consistent Compounders_Nov 2019_PMS', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_consistent-compounders_nov-2019_pms', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:19:49', '2019-11-11 09:19:49', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Marcellus_Consistent-Compounders_Nov-2019_PMS.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(2295, 1, '2019-11-11 09:20:40', '2019-11-11 09:20:40', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:20:40', '2019-11-11 09:20:40', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2296, 1, '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '<em>Twin pieces with the latter cross-referencing the former, together summarising the point that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is less of a conspiring move on the part of the Chinese Government to colonise large parts of emerging Asia and Africa as contemplated by several commentators including our own Brahma Chellaney than a case of a simple extension of crony capitalism that has flourished within China through its development of local infrastructure and now.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Some small countries “take on loans like it’s a drug addiction and then get trapped in debt servitude,” <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ff7f216db7&amp;e=5648501957\">opined</a> </u>the influential Indian strategist Brahma Chellaney. “It’s clearly part of China’s geostrategic vision.” Through debt diplomacy, China exerts bilateral influence by bankrupting partner nations with unsustainable debt and then demanding steep concessions as part of the debt relief – or so the thinking goes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…As China continues its global infrastructure financing push across the developing world, allegations of debt diplomacy keep arising. Upon taking office in May 2018, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad suspended a host of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects, asserting that his country could not support the unprecedented level of debt and charging China with implementing a <u>new version of colonialism</u>. Ethiopia has also experienced debt concerns over Chinese-built projects: Repayment on its $4 billion railway linking capital Addis Ababa with neighboring Djibouti has been <u>extended by 20 years</u> over concerns of debt distress. Fears of unsustainable Chinese lending in Zambia led <u>critics to allege</u> that China will take control over key state assets due to the Zambia’s indebtedness. Most recently, in October, Pakistan sought a <u><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7b31dddb3b&amp;e=5648501957\">bailout</a></u> due to its balance of payment crisis, partly stemming from its debts to China for infrastructure projects assumed under the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In each of these cases, debt diplomacy has been used to define China’s engagement abroad.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, little evidence actually suggests that Beijing coordinates a unified strategy to lure the developing world into unsustainable debt.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Instead of a state-led strategy, Chinese firms — motivated by profit and abetted by a toxic combination of bureaucratic disorganization, incompetence, and negligence at the state level — have exploited poor nations, which are dependent on cheap, and sometimes bad, loans. These companies, knowingly or unknowingly, persuade countries to pursue projects where benefits to the firms far outpace the benefits of the host nation. Asymmetric information or deception may even misrepresent the feasibility or sustainability of pursued projects. What is worse, governments sign onto nonconcessional loans that accrue high interest rates or carry onerous terms that disadvantage already vulnerable countries.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This practice does not trap recipient countries into taking on unsustainable debt. Instead, it allows Chinese companies to profit from often crooked deals building much-needed infrastructure in some of the world’s poorest countries, exploiting the undersupply of financing and these countries’ appetite for infrastructure projects. Forget debt diplomacy – call it crony diplomacy.\r\nFrom Andrew Batson’s piece</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s become increasingly clear that the “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0a4010facb&amp;e=5648501957\">debt-trap diplomacy</a>” meme started by Indian commentator Brahma Chellaney is not an accurate description of how the Belt and Road actually operates, despite the fervent embrace of this idea by China hawks. Basically, China is not actually organized enough to come up with such a clever and nefarious plan, and there is no evidence that there is a deliberate strategy to trap other countries in debt. A detailed examination of debt transactions by Rhodium Group also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=152f7109d4&amp;e=5648501957\">found</a> that in many cases borrowers were able to get China to write off or renegotiate their loans.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The flaw in the debt-trap diplomacy theory, and with many other analyses, is that it mistakes the Belt and Road for a for a “highly centralized and coordinated” initiative. In reality, it is more of a slogan attached to the decentralized actions of state-owned enterprises and banks.\r\nThe Belt and Road is really the expansion of a specific part of China’s domestic political economy to the rest of the world. That is the nexus between state-owned contractors and state-owned banks, which formed in the domestic infrastructure building spree construction that began after the 2008 global financial crisis (and has not yet ended).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Local governments discovered they could borrow basically without limit to fund infrastructure projects, and despite many predictions of doom, those debts have not yet collapsed. The lesson China has learned is that debt is free and that Western criticisms of excessive infrastructure investment are nonsense, so there is never any downside to borrowing to build more infrastructure. China’s infrastructure-building complex, facing diminishing returns domestically, is now applying that lesson to the whole world.\r\nIn Belt and Road projects, foreign countries simply take the place of Chinese local governments in this model (those who detect a neo-imperial vibe around the Belt and Road are, in this sense, onto something). Even the players are the same. In the 1990s, China Development Bank helped invent the local-government financing vehicle structure that underpinned the massive domestic infrastructure boom. Now, China Development Bank is one of the biggest lenders for overseas construction projects.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'China’s ‘Debt Diplomacy’ Is a Misnomer. Call It ‘Crony Diplomacy.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1300-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '2019-11-11 09:49:50', '', 1300, 'https://marcellus.in/1300-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2297, 1, '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '<em>This FT article explains how our gender stereotypes influence women to think about the most appropriate course of action in a given circumstance. “Research has shown that girls are commonly praised for being “good” — whether that means sitting quietly, following instructions or excelling academically. Boys, on the other hand, do worse in school and better in life. They are typically rewarded for breaking the rules — think disruptive innovation — and for aiming to win at all costs.”\r\nThe article goes on to give examples from contemporary politics of good girls. “Theresa May, British prime minister, is the ultimate political good girl, surrounded by bad boys who have repeatedly put their personal ambitions ahead of the fate of their country and knocked each other out in the process.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Surveying the field of candidates for the 2020 US election, we see much the same dynamic. Of the 20-odd current runners, six are women. Four of them — senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren — have followed the traditional playbook that requires a candidate to serve as a senator or governor before jumping into the presidential fray. They are also all in their 50s and 60s, having accumulated the necessary experience to dare try for the top job.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The men in the field…include…Pete Buttigieg is mayor of South Bend, Indiana. At 37, he has rocketed on to the national stage with an appealing CV and some great speeches. Seth Moulton, the latest congressman to enter the race, has been in politics for only five years…Good girls all — following the rules that many of their male competitors are either gleefully ignoring or upending. They were undoubtedly all very good in school and many of us admire their talent and their grit. But conscientiously following the script, even when it gets the job done, never seems to merit an A when it is the public doing the grading.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Political good girls are losing the battle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1298-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '2019-11-11 09:53:01', '', 1298, 'https://marcellus.in/1298-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2298, 1, '2019-11-11 10:01:09', '2019-11-11 10:01:09', 'A brilliantly articulated and constructive piece from the Nobel winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, in conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, about the much discussed global “rise in inequality”. Stiglitz blames how in the name of free markets, the world economic order has brewed inequities not just among individuals but also among corporates. Indeed, these inequities have resulted in political inequalities furthering the problem. However, Stiglitz offers progressive capitalism as a solution out of this rut – a social contract where the role of the state is reinstated with respect making regulations that encourage competition that can balance out the powers between corporates and workers, politicians and voters, the rich and the poor.\r\n\r\n“Despite the lowest unemployment rates since the late 1960s, the American economy is failing its citizens. Some 90 percent have seen their incomes stagnate or decline in the past 30 years. This is not surprising, given that the United States has the highest level of inequality among the advanced countries and one of the lowest levels of opportunity — with the fortunes of young Americans more dependent on the income and education of their parents than elsewhere. But things don’t have to be that way. There is an alternative: progressive capitalism. Progressive capitalism is not an oxymoron; we can indeed channel the power of the market to serve society.\r\n\r\nIn the 1980s, Ronald Reagan’s regulatory “reforms,” which reduced the ability of government to curb the excesses of the market, were sold as great energizers of the economy. But just the opposite happened: Growth slowed, and weirder still, this happened in the innovation capital of the world. The sugar rush produced by President Trump’s largess to corporations in the 2017 tax law didn’t deal with any of these long-run problems, and is already fading. Growth is expected to be a little under 2 percent next year. This is where we’ve descended to, but not where we have to stay. A progressive capitalism based on an understanding of what gives rise to growth and societal well-being gives us a way out of this quagmire and a way up for our living standards. Standards of living began to improve in the late 18th century for two reasons: the development of science (we learned how to learn about nature and used that knowledge to increase productivity and longevity) and developments in social organization (as a society, we learned how to work together, through institutions like the rule of law, and democracies with checks and balances). Key to both were systems of assessing and verifying the truth. The real and long-lasting danger of the Trump presidency is the risk it poses to these pillars of our economy and society, its attack on the very idea of knowledge and expertise, and its hostility to institutions that help us discover and assess the truth.\r\n\r\nThere is a broader social compact that allows a society to work and prosper together, and that, too, has been fraying. America created the first truly middle-class society; now, a middle-class life is increasingly out of reach for its citizens. America arrived at this sorry state of affairs because we forgot that the true source of the wealth of a nation is the creativity and innovation of its people. One can get rich either by adding to the nation’s economic pie or by grabbing a larger share of the pie by exploiting others — abusing, for instance, market power or informational advantages. We confused the hard work of wealth creation with wealth-grabbing (or, as economists call it, rent-seeking), and too many of our talented young people followed the siren call of getting rich quickly. Beginning with the Reagan era, economic policy played a key role in this dystopia: Just as forces of globalization and technological change were contributing to growing inequality, we adopted policies that worsened societal inequities. Even as economic theories like information economics (dealing with the ever-present situation where information is imperfect), behavioral economics and game theory arose to explain why markets on their own are often not efficient, fair, stable or seemingly rational, we relied more on markets and scaled back social protections.\r\n\r\nThe result is an economy with more exploitation — whether it’s abusive practices in the financial sector or the technology sector using our own data to take advantage of us at the cost of our privacy. The weakening of antitrust enforcement, and the failure of regulation to keep up with changes in our economy and the innovations in creating and leveraging market power, meant that markets became more concentrated and less competitive. Politics has played a big role in the increase in corporate rent-seeking and the accompanying inequality. Markets don’t exist in a vacuum; they have to be structured by rules and regulations, and those rules and regulations must be enforced…..If we don’t change course matters will likely grow worse, as machines (artificial intelligence and robots) replace an increasing fraction of routine labor, including many of the jobs of the several million Americans making their living by driving. The prescription follows from the diagnosis: It begins by recognizing the vital role that the state plays in making markets serve society. We need regulations that ensure strong competition without abusive exploitation, realigning the relationship between corporations and the workers they employ and the customers they are supposed to serve. We must be as resolute in combating market power as the corporate sector is in increasing it……………………… As an economist, I am always asked: Can we afford to provide this middle-class life for most, let alone all, Americans? Somehow, we did when we were a much poorer country in the years after World War II. In our politics, in our labor-market participation, and in our health we are already paying the price for our failures.\r\n\r\nThe neoliberal fantasy that unfettered markets will deliver prosperity to everyone should be put to rest. It is as fatally flawed as the notion after the fall of the Iron Curtain that we were seeing “the end of history” and that we would all soon be liberal democracies with capitalist economies.\r\nMost important, our exploitive capitalism has shaped who we are as individuals and as a society. The rampant dishonesty we’ve seen from Wells Fargo and Volkswagen or from members of the Sackler family as they promoted drugs they knew were addictive — this is what is to be expected in a society that lauds the pursuit of profits as leading, to quote Adam Smith, “as if by an invisible hand,” to the well-being of society, with no regard to whether those profits derive from exploitation or wealth creation.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.', 'Progressive Capitalism Is Not an Oxymoron', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1296-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:01:09', '2019-11-11 10:01:09', '', 1296, 'https://marcellus.in/1296-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2299, 1, '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '<em>Once the home of rockstar VCs such as Vinod Khosla this Fortune article contends that legendary VC firm, Kleiner Perkins, has lost its way and seeks to understand the roots of its malaise. Why did Kleiner fail to spot the potential of hot startups like Robinhood which repeatedly came knocking at its door?\r\nPart of the problem seems to be a war going on inside the firm. ““Growth” investing, with its more developed companies, should be somewhat safer than “venture” investing and would also earn commensurately lower returns. Yet Meeker’s investment team outperformed the venture group overseen by longtime Kleiner leader John Doerr and a rotating ensemble of lesser-known investors who joined and left him over the years. Meeker, not the venture capital investing unit, was landing stakes in the era’s most promising companies, including Slack, DocuSign, Spotify, and Uber, breeding resentment over tension points as old as the investing business: Who gets the credit and, more important, who gets paid.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Worse, a class system developed inside Kleiner, evident to the outside world as well, notably among entrepreneurs mulling accepting Kleiner’s money: Team Meeker was a top-tier operation while the venture unit was B-list at best.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The second problem appears to be superstar VC John Doerr’s fondness for renewable energy projects. “The firm’s ablest investor for two decades, though his name wasn’t on the letterhead, was John Doerr. A former Intel salesman, Doerr joined Kleiner in 1980 and over time became its de facto leader. Doerr scored a string of hits—Netscape, Amazon, and Google—becoming an active and forceful board member at the tech industry’s most exciting companies. He also was a prominent cheerleader for Silicon Valley in the age of the Internet.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Doerr was so powerful, in fact, that he was able to pivot Kleiner’s entire thrust away from the Internet and toward his latest passion project: renewable energy companies he believed would be the next important wave of tech investing. Doerr was a prominent Democratic fundraiser and pal of former Vice President Al Gore, whom Doerr made a ­Kleiner partner. Between 2004 and 2009, the firm had invested $630 million across 54 “clean tech” companies, and 12 of its 22 partners spent some or all of their time on so-called green investments. The firm’s heart may have been in the right place, but its investments flopped.”\r\nThe third challenge seems to be a loss of talent as smart VC left Kleiner since they felt they could not get the top job. “Vinod Khosla, another Sun cofounder and the closest Doerr had to an investing peer, jumped ship in 2004 to set up his own shop, a formidable power on Sand Hill Road today.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Kleiner also became known as a firm full of highly pedigreed young investors who stayed for a number of years but left without being given a shot at ascending to the top ranks. Many constitute the next generation of leadership in the venture capital world—but not at Kleiner. Steve Anderson, for example, did a four-year stint in the early 2000s. He went out on his own and later became the first investor in Instagram, which sold itself to Facebook for $1 billion. Aileen Lee, famous for coining the expression “unicorn” for the once-rare billion-dollar startup, now runs Cowboy Ventures.”\r\nAll of this seems to have lead to a full blown succession planning challenge. “Doerr set out in 2014 to solve the early-stage leadership problem by trying to buy another firm. He approached Chamath Palihapitiya, an outspoken former Facebook executive who was the driving force behind Social Capital…Talks eventually broke down, however, over how much control Palihapitiya…would have over all of Kleiner….Doerr continued his hunt for new talent. He…found it at the same place Doerr tried before, Social Capital, by recruiting another cofounder, Mamoon Hamid, to head up early-stage investing. Hamid, who had led Social Capital’s investment in Slack, joined Kleiner in 2017, a year after Doerr became chairman, a role that connotes something like emeritus status at a venture firm. Doerr presented Hamid as the new leader of Kleiner—a move that would put the newcomer in conflict with Meeker, who already was providing plenty of leadership of her own.”\r\nThis battle culminated in Meeker quitting in September 2018 with her team to set up her own shop. So now with the glory years behind them a small group of Kleiner partners are trying to rebuild the firm’s reputation.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How the Kleiner Perkins Empire Fell', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1294-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '2019-11-11 10:02:54', '', 1294, 'https://marcellus.in/1294-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2300, 1, '2019-11-11 10:07:00', '2019-11-11 10:07:00', '<em>Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\n–   </em><em><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> “The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”\n–   </em><em><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\n–   </em><em><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.”” So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? “Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”\n–    </em><em><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> “Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…”\n–   </em><em><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> “Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.” The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</em>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'You played yourself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1292-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:07:00', '2019-11-11 10:07:00', '', 1292, 'https://marcellus.in/1292-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2301, 1, '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '<em>Insightful as ever, Morgan Housel takes us on a tour of the lesser known – but just as deadly – behavioural finance pitfalls (which are less discussed than the better known pitfalls such as anchoring and overconfidence).\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Pluralistic ignorance:</strong> “The heart of pluralistic ignorance is having misperceptions about how others in your peer group think. And that’s usually what happens when you have a view about an investment that you assume isn’t held by a large percentage of other investors. Take the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, which is coming up next week. It’s 40,000 people, all of whom consider themselves contrarians. People show up at 4 am to wait in line with thousands of other people to tell each other about their lifelong commitment to not following the crowd. Pluralistic ignorance at its finest.”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Illusory correlation:</strong> “Assuming two things are correlated because that correlation seems common sense, even though there’s actually no relationship. Then you only notice times when those two things coincidentally appear next to each other, ignoring all the times they don’t, leading you to believe that the correlation not only exists but is strong.” Eg. changes in GDP growth and stockmarket returns are not correlated and yet most people them to be.\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Rosy prospection and introspection: </strong>“Anticipating that something in the future is going to be better than it actually will be, and remembering that event as being better than it actually was. Basically you love all states of time except the present, which never feels better than “just OK.”” So why does this happen? Why do we suffer from this? “Say you anticipate a beach vacation. Imagining yourself laying on the beach in the sun sounds nice. Then you get to the beach and all the umbrellas are taken, you get sunscreen in your eyes, and you step on a piece of coral. After you get home you remember the trip as being wonderful. Why? Partly because the sunscreen is now out of your eyes, and partly because you spent $10,000 on a beach vacation and it hurts to remember it as anything but nice.”\r\n–    </em><em><strong>Levelling and sharpening effects:</strong> “Memories of certain parts of an event are retold and sharpened in your mind because they make sense to you, while other parts of an event are kept out because they don’t fit one of your existing mental models, leveling their importance. So memory of big events can become distorted over time, giving more weight to some details – particularly the parts that make good, easy stories – while other details become forgotten and filled in with bits of the sharpened memory. The sharpened memories can take on a life of their own, morphing into false memories as the whole story has to be contorted…”\r\n–   </em><em><strong>Choice supportive errors:</strong> “Thinking the outcome of a decision you made is better than it actually was, and downplaying the performance of the option you decided against. A cousin of this is misremembering how and why you did something in a way that justifies your past decisions.” The best example of this in in the Indian market is Eicher Motors. Most people who bought Eicher before the Royal Enfield recovery began bought it because of the Volvo-Eicher JV. In retrospect, few remember that that is why the purchased this multibagger.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'You played yourself', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1292-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '2019-11-11 10:08:18', '', 1292, 'https://marcellus.in/1292-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2302, 1, '2019-11-11 10:09:48', '2019-11-11 10:09:48', 'Much is being written about disruptions in banking from fintech. Yet this piece suggests that the traditional banks have so far warded off that threat fairly well by innovating themselves using technology what with their deep pockets of capital and regulatory protections. This piece however focuses on the threat from Big Tech – not just on the incumbents but also on the financial system and the economy in general. Clearly, China has set the tone in many ways. Consider these:<em>\r\n“Just 10 years after starting Alipay, Alibaba consolidated all of its financial products and services under the umbrella of Ant Financial. Today, Ant Financial offers almost every financial service that the average customer needs, including deposit accounts, credit and wealth management.\r\nThe scale of this success is breathtaking: Ant Financial’s market cap is greater than that of Goldman Sachs, and its <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7e516ffb7f&amp;e=5648501957\">Yu’e Bao money market fund</a> is the largest in the world. Even so, its offerings are rivaled by Tencent, whose Tenpay platform has even more active users than Alipay.\r\nAfter successfully chipping away at the business of banking one product at a time, Ant Financial and Tencent opened China’s first internet banks, MYbank and WeBank, in 2014.”\r\n</em>Whilst Big Tech’s ability to drive financial inclusion particularly in the emerging economies of Asia and Africa are indeed positives, regulators are dabbling with concerns on market abuse (big tech has driven monopolies faster than ever), data privacy and the very disruptive and hence potentially destabilising nature of big tech.<em>\r\n“At this point, the rise of banking with big tech triggered a regulatory response from China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China. Today, the PBoC requires China’s tech giants to link certain internet bank accounts to traditional bank accounts and to keep 100 percent of their “float” in reserve at the central bank itself. This arrangement is designed to safeguard the financial system and also solidifies big tech’s place in its customers’ lives as both the face of traditional banking and as a regulated nonbank.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39cac4e67d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Big Tech’s Invasion of Banking', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1239-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:09:48', '2019-11-11 10:09:48', '', 1239, 'https://marcellus.in/1239-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2303, 1, '2019-11-11 10:11:13', '2019-11-11 10:11:13', 'Most smartphone users can barely read a 1000 word essay without getting distracted or switching the screen a few times. Why blame the smartphone? Turns out that the human mind is inherently susceptible to distractions – digital or otherwise. In this piece, Jamie Kreiner shows how the medieval monks almost 1600yrs ago faced similar problems concentrating and how led by John Cassian, they figured out a range of techniques to focus their mental energies.<em>\r\n“Medieval monks had a terrible time concentrating. And concentration was their lifelong work! Their tech was obviously different from ours. But their anxiety about distraction was not. They complained about being overloaded with information, and about how, even once you finally settled on something to read, it was easy to get bored and turn to something else. They were frustrated by their desire to stare out of the window, or to constantly check on the time (in their case, with the Sun as their clock), or to think about food or sex when they were supposed to be thinking about God. They even worried about getting distracted in their dreams.\r\n…(John Cassian) complained that the mind ‘seems driven by random incursions’. It ‘wanders around like it were drunk’. It would think about something else while it prayed and sang. It would meander into its future plans or past regrets in the middle of its reading. It couldn’t even stay focused on its own entertainment – let alone the difficult ideas that called for serious concentration…\r\n…Some of these strategies were tough. Renunciation, for instance. Monks and nuns were supposed to give up the things that most people loved – families, properties, businesses, day-to-day drama – not only to erode their sense of individual entitlement but also to ensure that they wouldn’t be preoccupied by that stuff in their professional lives of prayer. When the mind wanders, the monastic theorists observed, it usually veers off into recent events. Cut back your commitments to serious stuff, and you’ll have fewer thoughts competing for your attention…\r\nRestraint had to work on a physiological level, too. There were many theories in Late Antiquity and the Middle Ages about the connection between the mind and body. Most Christians agreed that the body was a needy creature whose bottomless appetite for food, sex and comfort held back the mind from what mattered most. That didn’t mean that the body must be rejected, only that it needed tough love. For all monks and nuns, since the very start of monasticism in the 4th century, this meant a moderate diet and no sex. Many of them also added regular manual labour to the regimen. They found it easier to concentrate when their bodies were moving, whether they were baking or farming or weaving.\r\nThere were also solutions that might strike people today as strange, which depended on imaginary pictures. Part of monastic education involved learning how to form cartoonish cognitive figures, to help sharpen one’s mnemonic and meditative skills. The mind loves stimuli such as colour, gore, sex, violence, noise and wild gesticulations. The challenge was to accept its delights and preferences, in order to take advantage of them. Authors and artists might do some of the legwork here, by writing vivid narratives or sculpting grotesque figures that embodied the ideas they wanted to communicate. But if a nun wanted to really learn something she’d read or heard, she would do this work herself, by rendering the material as a series of bizarre animations in her mind. The weirder the mnemonic devices the better – strangeness would make them easier to retrieve, and more captivating to think with when she ‘returned’ to look them over.\r\nSay that you wanted to learn the sequence of the zodiac. Thomas Bradwardine (a 14th-century university master, theologian and advisor to Edward III of England) suggests that you imagine a gleaming white ram with golden horns, kicking a bright red bull in the testicles. While the bull bleeds profusely, imagine that there’s a woman in front of it, giving birth to twins, in a gory labour that seems to split her up to her chest. As her twins burst forth, they’re playing with an awful red crab, which is pinching them and making them cry. And so on…”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to reduce digital distractions: advice from medieval monks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1236-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:11:13', '2019-11-11 10:11:13', '', 1236, 'https://marcellus.in/1236-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2304, 1, '2019-11-11 10:13:23', '2019-11-11 10:13:23', 'From our (limited) knowledge of American Football we know that the quarterback is the key player (filling the role of a creative midfielder in soccer). This week the Cleveland Browns will choose a quarterback in the annual NFA draft. Whoever they pick will get US$30mn. So it is important that they make the right pick. How will they get it right? “<em>It turns out that best practices in hiring have much in common with what psychologists have preached for decades. a structured decision process is especially valuable. The best teams have philosophies and policies that firmly guide the draft process. There are few organizations capable of doing that consistently, and it’s a real advantage for those who can…There is no silver bullet…there is no test or technology that reliably distinguishes star from bust, despite all our advances and many promises otherwise. How should we do it then? What can we learn from how NFL teams draft?”\r\n</em>Firstly, the recruiter needs to be clear about her goals. “…if you don’t know where you’re going, any road will get you there. An easy way to flub a hire from the beginning is to skip asking exactly what it is you’re looking for. People often don’t understand their decision objectives, but the most successful sports teams are clear about their goal and don’t stray from the principles and attributes they’ve established.”\r\nSecondly, keep your judges or interviewers separated from each other. <em>“People are impressionable. When they are exposed to other’s opinions before forming their own, they tend to anchor on the existing view. More generally, the “wisdom of the crowd” depends on the independence of the respective opinions within the crowd.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, break down the evaluation of the candidate into detailed component parts.<em>“NFL teams break players down in minute detail. There are physical qualities: For a quarterback it includes, for example, arm strength, mobility, and release. And then there is their “makeup,” or the intangibles considered critical for success. Ideally even these intangibles are broken into component parts, such as work ethic and selflessness. This decomposition means players are explicitly evaluated on many distinct dimensions….It’s much easier to give one, global evaluation—like or dislike, hire or reject. These overarching evaluations are natural and efficient, but unfortunately, they are often biased….Daniel Kahneman recognized the importance of this step years ago when designing performance evaluations for the Israeli military and has advocated for them since.”\r\n</em>Fourthly, create a mechanical model for pulling all our interviewers views on each candidate’s each skillset into one overall score.<em>“Letting a spreadsheet—or a model—summarize your judgment may seem like an abdication, but we’ve known for decades that simple linear models outperform intuitive judgment. This isn’t because evaluators don’t have expertise but rather because they apply their expertise inconsistently. Hiring decisions shouldn’t depend on the loudest voice in the room or how many strong candidates were seen earlier that day. The best way to ensure this is to aggregate mechanically. It also happens to be a big time-saver, freeing you to focus on the issues humans handle better than machines.”\r\n</em>Fifthly, capture data on the performance of your interviewers so that over time you can tell your model which interviewer is more reliable than others (and hence whose inputs should you attach more weight to). <em>“The trick is to capture those judgments and track them over time to learn how predictive they are. This applies to all judgments. Hiring is best thought of as a forecasting process, and the only way to improve forecasts is to map them against results and refine the process over time. By doing this, teams learn which tests matter most, which questions are more informative, and which scouts are best with each position on the field…At the moment, the defending champions in all three major professional sports—the Eagles, Astros, and Warriors—are unapologetic devotees of “Moneyball” in some form. Moneyball isn’t about a model or a technology but rather a decision-making process. The tenets of that process suggest steps any organization can take to improve their hiring.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Identify Talent: Five Lessons from the NFL Draft', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1234-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:13:23', '2019-11-11 10:13:23', '', 1234, 'https://marcellus.in/1234-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2305, 1, '2019-11-11 10:17:25', '2019-11-11 10:17:25', 'Charlie Munger had said in 1986 that there is a reason why Charles Darwin achieved extraordinary things without an extraordinary intellect:<em>“Darwin’s result was due in large measure to his working method, which violated all my rules for misery and particularly emphasized a backward twist in that he always gave priority attention to evidence tending to disconfirm whatever cherished and hard-won theory he already had. In contrast, most people early achieve and later intensify a tendency to process new and disconfirming information so that any original conclusion remains intact. They become people of whom Philip Wylie observed: “You couldn’t squeeze a dime between what they already know and what they will never learn.”\r\nThe life of Darwin demonstrates how a turtle may outrun a hare, aided by extreme objectivity, which helps the objective person end up like the only player without a blindfold in a game of Pin the Tail on the Donkey.”\r\n</em>So what can we learn from Charles Darwin’s methods? A lot it turns out. To begin with<em>“Darwin was a hoover of information related to a topic he was interested in. After describing some of his specific areas of study while aboard the H.M.S. Beagle, Darwin concludes in his Autobiography:\r\n‘The above various special studies were, however, of no importance compared with the habit of energetic industry and of concentrated attention to whatever I was engaged in, which I then acquired. Everything about which I thought or read was made to bear directly on what I had seen and was likely to see; and this habit of mind was continued during the five years of the voyage. I feel sure that it was this training which has enabled me to do whatever I have done in science.’\r\nThis habit of pure and attentive focus to the task at hand is, of course, echoed in many of our favorite thinkers…Munger himself remarked that “I did not succeed in life by intelligence. I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”\r\nSecondly, Darwin not only read widely, he not only collected data from a wide array of sources, he also took detailed notes and was a careful thinker: “Says David Quammen in his fabulous The Reluctant Mr. Darwin:\r\n‘One of Darwin’s great strengths as a scientist was also, in some ways, a disadvantage: his extraordinary breadth of curiosity. From his study at Down House he ranged widely and greedily, in his constant search for data, across distances (by letter) and scientific fields. He read eclectically and kept notes like a pack rat. Over the years he collected an enormous quantity of interconnected facts. He looked for patterns but was intrigued equally by exceptions to the patterns, and exceptions to the exceptions. He tested his ideas against complicated groups of organisms with complicated stories, such as the barnacles, the orchids, the social insects, the primroses, and the hominids.’\r\nNot only was Darwin thinking broadly, taking in facts at all turns and on many subjects, but he was thinking carefully, This is where Munger’s admiration comes in: Darwin wanted to look at the exceptions. The exceptions to the exceptions. He was on the hunt for truth and not necessarily to confirm some highly-loved idea.”\r\nEven more interestingly, as Darwin continued with his copious note writing, he was able to identify gaps in his own knowledge: “Darwin was a relentless note-taker. Notebook A, Notebook B, Notebook C, Notebook M, Notebook N…all filled with observations from his study of journals and texts, his own scientific work, his travels, and his life. Once he sat down to write, he had an enormous amount of prior written thought to draw on. He could also see gaps in his understanding, which he diligently filled in.”\r\nThirdly, Darwin learnt early on in life from his mentor, the geologist Charles Lyell, the benefits of becoming an in-depth expert on a specific area. Here is Darwin’s description of Lyell: “I saw more of Lyell than of any other man before and after my marriage. His mind was characterized, as it appeared to me, by clearness, caution, sound judgment and a good deal of originality. When I made any remark to him on Geology, he never rested until he saw the whole case clearly and often made me see it more clearly than I had done before. He would advance all possible objections to my suggestions, and even after these were exhausted would long remain dubious.”\r\nFarnam Street notes that “Studying Lyell and geology enhanced Darwin’s (probably natural) suspicion that careful, detailed, and objective work was required to create scientific breakthroughs. And once Darwin had expertise and grounding in the level of expertise required by Lyell to understand and explain the theory of geology, he had a basis for the rest of his scientific work…Why was the acquisition of expert knowledge in geology so important to the development of Darwin’s overall thinking? Because in learning geology Darwin ground a conceptual lens — a device for bringing into focus and clarifying the problems to which he turned his attention. When his attention shifted to problems beyond geology, the lens remained and Darwin used it in exploring new problems.”\r\n</em>And finally, through painstaking data collection, note taking and careful thought, Darwin made himself an expert in counterintuitive thought:<em>“Counter-intuition was Darwin’s specialty. And the reason he was so good was he had a very simple habit of thought, described in the autobiography and so cherished by Charlie Munger: He paid special attention to collecting facts which did not agree with his prior conceptions. He called this a golden rule.\r\n‘I had, also, during many years, followed a golden rule, namely, that whenever a published fact, a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once; for I had found by experience that such facts and thoughts were far more apt to escape from memory than favorable ones. Owing to this habit, very few objections were raised against my views which I had not at least noticed and attempted to answer.’\r\nSo we see that Darwin’s great success, by his own analysis, owed to his ability to see, note, and learn from objections to his cherished thoughts. The Origin of Species has stood up in the face of 157 years of subsequent biological research because Darwin was so careful to make sure the theory was nearly impossible to refute.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How Darwin Though: The Golden Rule of Thinking', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1230-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:17:25', '2019-11-11 10:17:25', '', 1230, 'https://marcellus.in/1230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2306, 1, '2019-11-11 10:19:19', '2019-11-11 10:19:19', 'Ram Guha, himself a giant amongst contemporary scholars, makes a case for seeing Rabindranath Tagore as one of the ‘four founders of modern India’ alongside Gandhi, Nehru and Ambedkar.\r\nGuha begins by correctly noting that Bengalis and in particular the university that Tagore founded, Vishwa Bharati, have tried to appropriate for themselves this intellectual giant.<em> “Ravi Shankar compared Tagore to the German genius Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832); so, before him, had the critic Buddhadeva Bose. Both men, remarked Bose, ‘participate[d] in almost everything’. Certainly, no one since Goethe worked in so many different fields and did original things in so many of them. Tagore was a poet, a novelist, a playwright, a lyricist, a composer, and an artist. He had good days and bad, but at his best he was outstanding in each of these fields.”\r\n</em>So why is Tagore such an important figure in India’s development? Firstly, Tagore was perhaps the first contemporary Indian who <em>“…travelled to other lands out of curiosity, simply to see and speak with humans of a cultural background other than his own.”</em>From these experiences he produced the first synthesis of Eastern and Western thought which we now take as a given in India.<em>\r\n</em>Here is Tagore writing in 1885,<em>“‘I sometimes detect in myself ‘a background where two opposing forces are constantly in action, one beckoning me to peace and cessation of all strife, the other egging me on to battle. It is as though the restless energy and the will to action of the West were perpetually assaulting the citadel of my Indian placidity. Hence this swing of the pendulum between passionate pain and calm detachment, between lyrical abandon and philosophizing, between love of my country and mockery of patriotism, between an itch to enter the lists and a longing to remain wrapt in thought’.\r\nQuoting this precocious passage, the Tagore scholar Swapan Majumdar says that it ‘strikes the keynote in his understanding of the West’. Tagore’s mission to synthesize East and West was part personal, part civilizational. In time it also became political. In the early years of the 20th century, the intelligentsia of Bengal was engulfed by the Swadeshi movement, where protests against British rule were expressed by the burning of foreign cloth and the rejection of all things Western. After an initial enthusiasm for the movement, Tagore turned against it.”\r\n</em>Secondly, very few people realise the scale of Tagore’s intellectual achievement. He was the first Asian to win the Nobel Prize in any category. In the West’s understanding of Asia, Tagore was a milestone. The story behind Tagore’s journey to Nobel is itself very interesting<em>: “In the summer of 1912, Rabindranath Tagore visited England, a country he had been to twice before. He was carrying some translations of his poems, which were misplaced on the London Underground. Fortunately, they were retrieved from the ‘lost luggage’ department of the Underground. Shortly afterwards, Tagore struck up a friendship with W. B. Yeats, who helped him refine the translations. Published by the India Society under the title Gitanjali, these poems were an immediate sensation, going through ten printings in six months. In November 1913 Tagore was awarded the Nobel Prize for literature.\r\nThe Nobel Prizes had been in existence only a decade, but had acquired a considerable prestige. Tagore was the first Asian winner in any category. He was already known in Europe and the United States (which he had visited, after finishing with Yeats and company, in that summer of 1912), but the Nobel award gained for him a massively enhanced status within India, and across Asia. The award was seen as an acknowledgement of the importance of a continent anxious to reclaim its past greatness. Thus, when Tagore arrived for the first time in the Japanese capital of Tokyo in June 1916, some twenty thousand people turned out to receive him at the city’s central railway station.”\r\n</em>Thirdly, even before Mahatma Gandhi has returned to India from South Africa, Tagore had with his own resources (augmented by payments received for lectures given in America often in front of sneering audiences) started creating what became India’s first privately funded university, Visva-Bharati<em>“….which may be translated as ‘India in the World’, or alternatively as ‘The World in India’. Its Memorandum of Association described its objectives as the bringing together of ‘thinkers and scholars of both Eastern and Western countries, free from all antagonisms of race, nationality, creed or caste…’; and the realization ‘in a common fellowship of study [of] the meeting of East and West’.\r\nTagore raised money for his new university through friends in India, and by subscriptions from abroad. In the summer of 1920 he undertook an extended trip of Europe and North America for the purpose.” </em>The man’s practicality – in realising that India could not move forward through idealism and through harking back to a golden bygone age – is remarkable if you put it in the context of what was happening in India and in Europe in the 1910s and 1920s.<em>\r\n</em>Fourthly, the exchanges between Tagore and Gandhi are a turning point in Indian history not least because Tagore gave Gandhi the prefix of the “Mahatma”. More importantly, the relationship convinced Gandhi to tell the world that anti-Western thought and philosophy is not what he was espousing. Most memorably Gandhi said, <em>‘I hope I am as great a believer in free air as the great Poet. I do not want my house to be walled in on all sides and my windows to be stuffed. I want the cultures of all the lands to be blown about my house as freely as possible. But I refuse to be blown off my feet by any’.\r\n</em>This debate between two of the titanic figures in modern Indian history is worthy of being made into a Netflix movie (ironically, Bollywood won’t have the stomach for it). Guha writes: <em>“Eighty years on, the Tagore-Gandhi debate still makes for compelling reading. The Mahatma insisted that a colonized nation had first to discover itself before discovering the world. The poet answered that there was a thin line between nationalism and xenophobia—besides, hatred of the foreigner could later turn into an hatred of Indians different from oneself (he was particularly sceptical of the claim that non-co-operation had or would dissolve Hindu-Muslim differences). Both men come out well; Tagore slightly better perhaps. He stood his ground, whereas Gandhi shifted his, somewhat. Pressed and challenged by Tagore, he broadened his nationalism to allow in winds from all parts of the world.”\r\n</em>Finally, and most importantly perhaps, whilst Tagore did not live to see India gain Independence (he died in 1941), his vision of India –  as a tolerant, heterogenous society which embraces the best ideas from the rest of the world whilst developing on its own terms – is the only credible vision we have had with which to build a nation.<em>“No one could accuse Tagore of not loving his country. This is what lends a special force to his criticisms of nationalism. As he saw it, the staggering hetereogeneity of India was the product of its hospitality, in the past, to cultures and ideas from outside. He wished that this open-ness be retained and even enhanced in the present. Unlike other patriots, Tagore refused to privilege a particular aspect of India—Hindu, North Indian, upper caste, etc.—and make this the essence of the nation, and then demand that other aspects conform or subordinate themselves to it. For Tagore, as the historian Tanika Sarkar has pointed out, India ‘was and must remain a land without a centre’.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Traveling With Tagore', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1228-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:19:19', '2019-11-11 10:19:19', '', 1228, 'https://marcellus.in/1228-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2307, 1, '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '<em>This article quantifies what many of us have seen happening in our lives (or in the lives of our better halves). “At the beginning of their careers, men’s and women’s income are practically equivalent. By the time everyone’s in their mid-40s, women on average make as little as 55 percent of what men do.\r\nClaudia Goldin, an economics professor at Harvard University and an expert on the gender pay gap…her research finds that women often pull back from their careers because their unpaid work—raising and caring for a child—becomes more demanding. In a 15-year study of MBA students at the University of Chicago, Goldin and her colleagues found that the pay gap started to widen a year or two after a woman had her first child. “These women are extraordinarily driven and dedicated to what they’re doing,” she said. “They’re trying as hard as they can, but at some point, the demands of home are really getting to them.”… According to research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women spend more time on more days of the week caring for their children than men do. They also spend more time on domestic duties such as cleaning and laundry.”\r\nUnfortunately, for women their reduction in working hours post-motherhood has a non-linear impact on their earnings: “Those additional responsibilities often lead women to limit the time they spend at their paying jobs…Women’s attempts to deal with these dueling demands are often mistaken for a lack of dedication or ambition in their careers. That perception also contributes to the gender pay gap, Goldin says.“The difference in hours is not that large,” she said. “But the penalties are very, very large.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4b46fe572e&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Having Kids Is Terrible for Women’s Earning Power', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1251-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '2019-11-11 10:26:19', '', 1251, 'https://marcellus.in/1251-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2308, 1, '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '<em>20 years ago for many non-Israelis, Israel looked like a strange country – a country created from the ravages of World War II by and for Jewish people, a country that seemed to be fighting the Palestinians almost perpetually. 20 years on Israel looks like everywhere else. The rest of the world seems to have become like Israel – every country seems to be perpetually in a state of civil war. “Israel, far from being an anachronism, turned out to be a harbinger. Rather than Israel coming to more closely resemble other democracies, other democracies are looking increasingly Israeli.”\r\nAs a result, the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems to have become a poster boy for other leaders in countries as disparate as Brazil, Hungary and India. Everybody, it would appear, wants a page out of the Netanyahu playbook. “Mr. Netanyahu rose to power in the 1990s by championing skepticism and fear of efforts to make peace with the Palestinians, a common sentiment among Orthodox and secular nationalist Jewish Israelis. When he defeated Shimon Peres in elections in 1996, Mr. Peres commented, “The Jews had beaten the Israelis.”\r\nFor 20 years in and out of power after that, Mr. Netanyahu played what many American diplomats suspected was a double game. Abroad or when speaking in English, he would emphasize Israel’s democratic system, its hope for peace with the Palestinians and its respect for international rules and norms. At home and speaking to his base, typically in Hebrew, he would promise stern treatment of Palestinians, promise to expand the settlements choking off the West Bank and warn darkly about Arab Israeli voters.”\r\nAnd so, against all odds, Israel has laid the template for the kind of right wing politics that many other countries seem destined to follow: “…Netanyahuism is succeeding beyond Israel. Voters around the world are flocking to strong-fisted rulers who promise to protect “us” — usually defined, at least implicitly, along racial, ethnic and religious lines — by controlling or expelling the minorities or cultural outsiders unlucky enough to be categorized as “them.”\r\nMore and more often, defying the international order, with its idealistic restrictions on everything from the use of force to a state’s obligations to refugees, is seen as a plus. In this new nationalist order, there is one country that, paradoxically, wields little power in the traditional sense but commands great cultural sway…There is more going on here than evangelical pro-Israel attitudes or strategic interests in the Middle East. Israel’s old-style ethnonationalism and its hard-line treatment of Palestinians, once an international liability, have become an asset.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Netanyauism is Winning in Israel – and Globally', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1249-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '2019-11-11 10:28:14', '', 1249, 'https://marcellus.in/1249-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2309, 1, '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '<em>Megan Tobias Neely, a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Clayman Institute for Gender Research at Stanford University, tries to find the reason as to why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Based on her work, Megan believes the answer lies in a system of patronage organizing the industry. There is a very strong mentorship environment in the hedge fund industry. One generation teaches the next generation who teaches the next generation as there’s a strong sense of loyalty, there’s a strong sense of kinship and family. Megan also says that patrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington – Ben Bernanke/Alan Greenspan after completing their Federal Reserve stint consulted hedge funds.\r\nMegan says patrimonialism warrants closer examination as elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.\r\n“I’m sorry, but so and so’s brother needed to get hired. Shit happens,” Karen recounted, with resignation, a time her boss denied her a promotion. Karen is a white woman who works at a hedge fund, a private financial firm. She continued, “When there’s big money, greed, power, people protect their own. And sometimes it’s the guy in the parish, the guy in the corner [office], the guy in the whatever.”\r\nKaren’s account provides insight into why firms run by white men manage 97 percent of hedge fund assets­—a $3.55 trillion industry. Moreover, she sheds light on why these elite men have amassed riches. Indeed, I find that gender and racial inequality provide a key to explaining why hedge funds drive the divide between the rich and the rest. Since 1980, U.S. income inequality has skyrocketed, in part due to mushrooming pay in financial services. Hedge fund managers are well represented among the “1 percent” with average pay of $2.4 million. Even entry-level positions earn on average $372,000. ($390,000 is the threshold for the top 1 percent of families.)\r\nYet, the “winners” of widening inequality—at hedge funds and among top earners overall—are mostly white men. Why is this lucrative industry a bastion of white-male power and privilege? From 2013 until 2017, I interviewed and observed people who worked at hedge funds. I find the answers lie in a system of patronage organizing the industry. In a recent article, I show how patronage allows a select group of men to groom and transfer capital to one another.\r\n<u>Patronage on wall street</u>\r\nIn the 1900s, Max Weber defined a patrimonial system of authority as based on trust, loyalty, and tradition. He observed as a new capitalist elite replaced patriarchal monarchies during the Industrial Revolution. Weber predicted that bureaucracy would replace patrimonialism as the organizing fabric of capitalism.\r\nJulia Adams later specified how a patrimonial leader rules “paternally” as a symbolic father. This patriarchal system legitimizes the monopoly of power and resources among men. Does patronage exist on Wall Street today? I find that patronage entrenches inequality at hedge funds. Men identify, groom, and seed future generations of financial elites—usually other men. Gender, race, and class status shape whom they deem to be trustworthy and loyal………..\r\nJay recognized family-like mentorship as the way to gain the know-how of the industry.\r\n“As you get older, wiser, more experienced, you seek somebody who reminds you of you, who has that same ambition, that same passion, that same drive.” Jay said, “And you teach them all that you know.” I realized the younger men I observed with Jay were his mentees. When I asked, he said, “Yes!”\r\n“How did you build these relationships?” I asked.\r\n“As you start climbing the totem pole, if you will, you start looking for people like yourself.” Jay said, “It’s this organic process whereby you see people that have the same mentality, the same passion. It’s very tough to explain from a data perspective; quantitatively, how do you quantify that? You just see it. You kind of feel it. It’s organic.”\r\nThis patrimonial system of white male privilege is not only self-sustaining. It speeds up over time, as the beneficiaries concentrate their power and resources by investing in protégés.\r\n<u>A revolving door</u>\r\nPatrimonialism has widespread impacts that extend beyond Wall Street and into Washington. First, hedge funds have collapsed markets and currencies. George Soros “broke the Bank of England” by short-selling the British pound. The Hollywood hit “The Big Short” exposed how hedge funds profited from the greatest stock market crash in recent history. Second, a “revolving door” exists between Wall Street and Washington. Former male politicians with ties to Goldman Sachs alone, include Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Head of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt, House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt, and White House Chief Strategist Stephen Bannon……………….\r\nPatrimonialism warrants closer examination. Elite networks—whether in finance, technology, or government—impact public policy and generate systemic inequality on a broad scale. We need to better understand what can be done to change this system of inequality, and what is at stake if we don’t.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Elite men and inequality in the hedge fund industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1247-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '2019-11-11 10:30:00', '', 1247, 'https://marcellus.in/1247-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2310, 1, '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '<em>Monica Prasad, a professor of sociology at Northwestern, discusses tax structures of various countries and its impact on reducing poverty and inequality. Sweden as a country has low poverty &amp; inequality compared to other European countries and America. Whilst the average Swede falls under the high tax bracket (42.9%) compared to the average American (31.7%), on the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky.\r\nMonica says that Governments have to adopt policies that reduces poverty &amp; inequality yet are business friendly.\r\n“In the recent rush of proposals to tax the rich, Democrats have forgotten — or never really cared to learn — an important lesson: The countries that have been most successful at reducing poverty and inequality have not done it by taxing the wealthy and giving to the poor. Take Sweden, a country often cited by progressives for its extensive social programs. Sweden has very low poverty and inequality, and economic mobility is significantly higher than it is in the United States; a poor Swede is much more likely to become middle class than a poor American is.\r\nWe can learn from Sweden, but the lesson is not what many people think. Rich Swedes do get taxed at high rates, but so does everyone else: The average American worker’s total tax burden is 31.7 percent of earnings, compared with 42.9 percent for the average Swede. The Swedes actually tax corporations less: 19.8 percent, compared with 34.2 percent in the United States in 2017, the last year for which we have comparative data — and yes, that’s after all the loopholes and deductions have been accounted for. The American rate will be lower after the 2017 tax bill, but it’s still unlikely to be as low as Sweden’s. Estate tax? In the United States the average effective rate is 16.5 percent. In Sweden, it’s zero. Swedish national sales taxes, which fall disproportionately on the middle classes, are much higher than sales taxes in the United States. In France, another country held up as an exemplar by progressives, the economist Thomas Piketty and his collaborators found the overall tax structure was actually a bit regressive, meaning the wealthiest pay slightly lower rates of tax than the less wealthy. Throughout Europe, since World War II, the rule has been high taxes on labor and low taxes on capital.\r\nOn the spending side, Sweden does not target much of its spending specifically to the poor. Tax revenue is spent on universal programs, like health care, which benefit most those who live longest; free college tuition takes from those who do not go to college and gives to those who do. Many aspects of welfare state spending in Sweden — as in other European countries — are linked to income, so that the more you earn, the more you receive in benefits. This is enormously effective, because it gives an incentive to Swedes to work hard and earn more. Poverty and inequality do get reduced, though not by redistribution from rich to poor, but rather by redistribution within classes — as the American sociologist Arthur Stinchcombe once put it, from the healthy to the unhealthy, from the young to the old and from the lucky to the unlucky. These patterns go back to the early 20th century, when many European countries were trying to figure out how to compete with the rising American economic behemoth and decided that they had to nurture their capitalists to do so……………The real lesson to take away from Europe is that progressive social programs are most popular, most effective and most durable when they are carried out in ways that do not damage business prosperity. European social reformers didn’t just reduce poverty and inequality. They created a new reality. When conservatives come into power in European countries, they find they cannot take away the progressive policies. European reformers managed this by embedding progressive policies in business-oriented arrangements. Low taxes on capital are just one example. We don’t need to enact exactly the same policies now — given how much wealthy Americans have benefited over the last several decades, progressive taxation still has a role to play in the United States — but we do need to learn the larger lesson that the secret of the European welfare states is that they are surprisingly business-friendly…………\r\nTo move from vision to reality, the Green New Deal coalition must include business groups, manufacturers, farmers and unions, and reformers need to genuinely listen to and respond to their concerns. They need to focus on solving problems such as the decline in productivity and work force participation, by using the revenue from a carbon tax to create jobs in energy efficiency and renewable energy, and by using higher taxes on capital gains to fund infrastructure, education, and research and development. Green reformers also need to explain the enormous business opportunity that this historic shift to a zero carbon economy presents. Get businesses to make investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, and you make your policies not only more feasible, but also irreversible.\r\nNone of this would create a European-style welfare state. But if done right, it would create something even more extraordinary: a new model of capitalism that European progressives themselves would, someday, try to imitate.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'How to Think About Taxing and Spending Like a Swede', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1243-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '2019-11-11 10:32:20', '', 1243, 'https://marcellus.in/1243-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2311, 1, '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '<em>After enough research to show marijuana or cannabis or good old pot is now less harmful than tobacco and alcohol, leading to legalisation in America, there is plenty of new business models emerging to capitalise on this trend. More intriguing now is how these businesses are valued given the absolute greenfield nature of this business. This article throws on light on how some of the big tobacco and booze companies are pre-empting a potential disruption to their core businesses lest the pot business takes off in way that no one had envisaged barely a year gao.\r\n“Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\n….Cannabis growers have hardly any revenue and their product is still illegal in their most desirable market, the U.S. That’s not stopping investors and corporate giants from spending billions of dollars to take stakes in these companies. They obviously see growth potential. And yet the question remains, how do you even value a pot business?\r\n…Altria Group Inc., the U.S. tobacco leader and maker of Marlboro cigarettes, announced in December that it was buying 45 percent of Cronos Group Inc., one of Canada’s growing number of cannabis producers and among the industry’s high-flying stocks. The $1.8 billion transaction left us wondering: How did Altria determine that price? After all, in the period before the deal, Cronos generated sales of less than $4 million – no, that’s not a typo – and certainly no profits. Recreational pot had only just become legal in Canada two months earlier. Altria, a $105 billion market-cap company that rarely does splashy deals, placed immense value on a barely existent business in a nascent market.\r\nThe dynamics were the same when Constellation Brands Inc., a beer and liquor conglomerate, spent $3.8 billion to increase its stake in Canopy Growth Corp. earlier in 2018. Canopy’s CEO has said he wants it to become the Google of pot – but he’ll need to add a few more digits to its sales figures.\r\nIt’s a tricky thing to gauge the worth of assets that will potentially be highly valuable down the road – but are difficult to quantify just yet. Looking at other industries where this has been the case is helpful. Even if their businesses aren’t perfect comparisons, the method of valuing them can be instructive.\r\nTake the natural-resources space, where the focus is often on non-financial metrics. They include production capacity and tangible assets, such as proved oil reserves – which is to say, how much fuel a producer can likely pump from their land. It can be argued that this is similar to how individual investors already have been gauging cannabis companies, dazzled by how many kilograms can be produced and how many acres of greenhouse they have.\r\nBut the downside to this approach for cannabis is that it puts too much emphasis on supply-chain processes that may become commoditized, and a rudimentary focus on capacity doesn’t capture how the early movers in this market can differentiate themselves. The industry’s novelty also distracts from what can be a challenging business from an operational standpoint. For example, Aphria Inc.’s share price increased more than elevenfold over the last five years, but in its latest quarter the business was hamstrung by supply shortages and packaging issues.\r\nA better comparison for cannabis may be the biotechnology space. Deals for drug developers involve big, risky bets on future potential blockbusters. These products may not generate revenue yet, but they aim to address very specific markets and are expected to have an economic moat that wards off competition. For pharmaceuticals, that moat comes from patent exclusivity that prevents copycat versions of a therapy. In some ways, this is what the more advanced cannabis companies are looking to accomplish. They won’t have patents in the same way, but they do aim to create intellectual property and specialized brands that appeal to certain types of customers. And they want to be first to form those customer relationships.\r\nRemember, this market will be far more expansive than simply selling a box of joints. There’s an opportunity to create all sorts of consumer products, and the marketing can vary widely – from wellness drinks and beauty items infused with cannabidiol, or CBD (the part of cannabis that doesn’t deliver a high), to “sin” products like marijuana-infused edibles, or something more akin to having a glass of wine.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Look at it this way: Altria doesn’t own tobacco farms. It owns high-margin brands that source from tobacco growers. So when it’s studying the future of marijuana, it’s not looking solely at production. It’s looking for unique brands that can be scaled up by a team with the necessary know-how. In the case of Cronos, CEO Mike Gorenstein said on the last earnings call that the company is trying to differentiate itself with pre-rolled joints, adding that innovation around branding and efficiency will be “a bigger differentiator than just cultivation.”\r\nKnowing the important role that brand-building will play in the next phase of the cannabis industry’s growth story, it’s useful to study these companies’ senior management teams and look for branding and retail pedigree. It’s a good sign that Cronos’s head of marketing has had stints at PepsiCo Inc. and Mondelez International Inc., and that Tilray Inc. has a one-time Starbucks Corp. executive running its retail strategy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..Wherever it’s sold, if the cannabis business is to grow as big as the industry’s bulls hope, it is going to have to successfully court non-users and infrequent users. That’s where newer innovations, such as edibles and beauty items, may be more important than smokeable products. </em>\r\n<em>The companies that become the breakout stars in the legal cannabis era will be the ones that have a vision for how to create demand for such goods, whether through curiosity-inducing product, a great in-store experience or alluring marketing. These capabilities – not merely spreading more seeds in soil – should be a critical part of valuing the pot pioneers”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to Value a Pot Stock', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1245-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '2019-11-11 10:36:06', '', 1245, 'https://marcellus.in/1245-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2312, 1, '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '<em>This remarkable article from the NYT raises a toast to those who first fail in the great capitalist race to become rich &amp; famous but then lift themselves up to imbue their own lives and that of others with more meaning. These are people whose lives have been lived on what the author calls “two mountains”.\r\n“People on the first mountain spend a lot of time on reputation management. They ask: What do people think of me? Where do I rank? They’re trying to win the victories the ego enjoys.\r\nThese hustling years are also powerfully shaped by our individualistic and meritocratic culture. People operate under this assumption: I can make myself happy. If I achieve excellence, lose more weight, follow this self-improvement technique, fulfillment will follow.”\r\nSounds familiar? But then comes the interesting twist in the article: “But in the lives of the people I’m talking about — the ones I really admire — something happened that interrupted the linear existence they had imagined for themselves. Something happened that exposed the problem with living according to individualistic, meritocratic values. Some of them achieved success and found it unsatisfying. They figured there must be more to life, some higher purpose. Others failed. They lost their job or endured some scandal. Suddenly they were falling, not climbing, and their whole identity was in peril. Yet another group of people got hit sideways by something that wasn’t part of the original plan. They had a cancer scare or suffered the loss of a child. These tragedies made the first-mountain victories seem, well, not so important.”\r\nThis crisis separates the women from the girls so to speak. “Some people are broken by this kind of pain and grief. They seem to get smaller and more afraid, and never recover. They get angry, resentful and tribal.\r\nBut other people are broken open. The theologian Paul Tillich wrote that suffering upends the normal patterns of life and reminds you that you are not who you thought you were. The basement of your soul is much deeper than you knew. Some people look into the hidden depths of themselves and they realize that success won’t fill those spaces. Only a spiritual life and unconditional love from family and friends will do. They realize how lucky they are. They are down in the valley, but their health is O.K.; they’re not financially destroyed; they’re about to be dragged on an adventure that will leave them transformed.\r\nThey realize that while our educational system generally prepares us for climbing this or that mountain, your life is actually defined by how you make use of your moment of greatest adversity.”\r\nSo how do our heroes and heroines find redemption?\r\n“First, there has to be a period of solitude, in the wilderness, where self-reflection can occur…The self-centered voice of the ego has to be quieted before a person is capable of freely giving and receiving love.\r\nThen there is contact with the heart and soul — through prayer, meditation, writing, whatever it is that puts you in contact with your deepest desires….In the wilderness the desire for esteem is stripped away and bigger desires are made visible: the desires of the heart (to live in loving connection with others) and the desires of the soul (the yearning to serve some transcendent ideal and to be sanctified by that service).\r\nWhen people are broken open in this way, they are more sensitive to the pains and joys of the world. They realize: Oh, that first mountain wasn’t my mountain. I am ready for a larger journey.”</em>', 'The Moral Peril of Meritocracy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1241-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '2019-11-11 10:38:32', '', 1241, 'https://marcellus.in/1241-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2313, 1, '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '<em>A beautiful piece on customer service, especially the role of customer communication when it comes to handling adversity and sustaining trust that underpins the relationship with the customer. Virgin Galactic’s multiple delays in its long anticipated retail space travel can be quite frustrating for customers who have signed up a long time ago, some as long as 15yrs. This article is about how Virgin has retained the interests and enthusiasm of its customers not just in the face of these delays but also adverse events such as that of a fatal crash of test flight.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….While waiting for their trip, some since 2004, Virgin ticket holders have been busied with treats on earth: from a custom-created solar eclipse festival in Idaho and test-flight viewings in California’s Mojave Desert to spaceship-shaped cufflinks at Christmas and group excursions to Branson’s private island in the Caribbean, where they can play tennis with the famous entrepreneur and swap design ideas for the spaceflight around a campfire.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It’s more than just a trip to space, it’s a huge, ongoing event,” said Icelandic ticket holder Gislason, who has a Virgin Galactic logo tattooed on his arm and bought his ticket to space in 2010. “I’ve already got what I paid for, so I’m just in for a bonus,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The biggest test of this carefully built customer community came in 2014, when a test flight crash killed the co-pilot and seriously injured the pilot.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I remember very well waking up very early on Saturday morning after the Friday accident and wondering what would happen to this customer base,” Attenborough said.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The company reached out to customers by email on the day of the crash, both before and after the co-pilot’s death was known. There was a blog post from Branson on that day, and later, a video message. A subsequent email from the astronaut relations team said that they planned to call every customer individually.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, Attenborough said only a “handful” of customers asked for refunds.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1aec48946&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Great Space Wait – How Virgin Galactic kept ticket holders’ interest and money', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1263-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '2019-11-11 10:43:05', '', 1263, 'https://marcellus.in/1263-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2314, 1, '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '<em>At Marcellus, we like the idea of using a mixture of quantitative and qualitative methods for identifying firms with big moats. The author, an American fund manager, seems to be doing something similar in the US.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Whilst we use YOY revenue growth and ROCE as our filters, he uses: “<strong>A decade of earnings predictability:</strong> Our Buffett model looks at 10 years worth of earnings and rewards firms that have increasing earnings over that time period. Using 10 years should give a snapshot of corporate performance over various parts of the business cycle. Growing earnings in and of itself isn’t completely a sign of a competitive advantage, but a decade of growing earnings can give an investor confidence in future earnings of the company.\r\n<strong>A decade of above average return on equity and return on total capital:</strong> It’s not enough for a company to just have consistent earnings, but the real determination of whether a moat exists comes in looking at 10 years of return on equity (ROE) and 10 years of return on capital (ROTC). ROE measures the profits a company is able to generate on its equity, or net assets, since equity equals assets minus liabilities. Since leverage can be used to magnify earnings, ROTC takes both equity and debt, or total capital, into consideration.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Then even more interesting part of this paper is data from a book by the legendary Roger Ibbotson on whether these firms with wide moats outperform. “Research from the new book: Popularity: A Bridge between Classical and Behavioral Finance by Roger Ibbotson and three Morningstar investment researchers, Thomas Idzorek, CFA, Paul Kaplan, CFA, and James Xiong, CFA, counters the belief that wide moats equal superior stock returns. What these researchers found was that characteristics like a strong brand name, a defined competitive advantage, a wide moat, or a good reputation made stocks more popular, and therefore more expensive. For wide moat firms specifically, the authors measured the performance of those companies with the highest Morningstar Economic Moat ratings and compared the performance to firms with narrow moats or no moats. The data shows “wide moat” firms actually underperformed narrow moat or no moat firms from a raw performance perspective, but did generate superior risk-adjusted performance.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The article gives a table from Ibbotson’s book that the Sharpe Ratio for firms with “wide moats” (quantitatively measured) is 0.82 whereas the Share Ratio for firms with “no moats” 0.73.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Replicating Buffet’s Wide Moat Investing Method', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1261-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '2019-11-11 10:45:11', '', 1261, 'https://marcellus.in/1261-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2315, 1, '2019-11-11 10:48:26', '2019-11-11 10:48:26', 'All of us live with the knowledge the living in HK or London or even Bandra is an expensive affair. Many of us have elaborate financial theories for why this is so. This article comes up with a novel explanation for why living in the big financial &amp; tech capitals of the major economies is becoming prohibitively expensive – it is all happening due to single women.\r\n\r\n<em>“We study urban development and its social, physical and environmental impacts. We recently examined two decades of cultural transitions in Hong Kong with a focus on how the changing status of women and attitudes toward marriage have altered the real estate market. What we found is that single women in Hong Kong have played a surprising and little-studied role in gentrification. Women have been marrying later in life around the world for many years…Throughout the second half of the 20th century, East and Southeast Asia, in particular, witnessed a growing number of single men and women. From 1950 to 1990, the number of young single women across Asia – China excluded – increased almost fourfold, from 22 million to 82 million…This trend has produced a ripple effect throughout the economy, including the property market and local redevelopment, as the increased number of single women – who are also attaining higher-paid jobs – boosts demand for housing.”\r\nSo how big is this effect? The authors have done some useful number crunching. “We analyzed standardized census data from 1986 to 2006 across all of Hong Kong, with a focus on exploring the impact of women on neighborhoods that were gentrifying. The analysis, which took four years to complete, identified about 34 percent of Hong Kong as experiencing gentrification…A telltale sign of gentrification is the shift from rentals to owner-occupied housing. The share of units with owners living in them in these areas climbed from 45.5 percent in 1986 to 64.2 percent two decades later.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>During the same time period, the number of people employed in traditional, working-class sectors like manufacturing more than halved, from 177,917 in 1986 to 73,870 in 2006. At the same time, the number of residents employed in finance, insurance, real estate and business services tripled, from 49,276 in 1986 to 150,237 in 2006…Single women increased by 53.2 percent over the two decades, compared with a rise of just 15.2 percent among single men…As a result, the share of households led by single women, whether never-married or divorced, jumped to 47.1 percent in 2006 from just 25.8 percent two decades earlier.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How single women are driving gentrification in Hong Kong and elsewhere', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1259-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:48:26', '2019-11-11 10:48:26', '', 1259, 'https://marcellus.in/1259-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2316, 1, '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '<em>Zip manufacturing is not the most often discussed industries in investor forums. Yet this article brings out some key insights about the implications of international trade on competitive intensity and more generally the competitive advantage and its implications on the consumers in the industry. We often think about pricing power as the manifestation of underlying moats or competitive advantage. And that pricing power is simply the ability to take price hikes with no commensurate impact on volumes or market share. However, the article shows that pricing power is perhaps more in relation to the firm’s ability to drive efficiencies superior to competition so that it obviates the need for any price increases which inturn puts pressure on competition. The zip industry’s experience shows that whilst opening up of global trade could drive competitive intensity, we could still end up with an oligopoly of sorts where one or two companies through sheer efficiencies could end up dominating up the industry. And despite such dominance, the consumer remains the biggest beneficiary of such efficiencies through lower prices. This is very akin to what we see in some of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio – where an Asian Paints or a Relaxo Footwear or Dr Lal’s Pathlabs have kept price increases fairly modest, driving their profitability through internal efficiencies (sourcing, workforce productivity, smart use of tech, etc) better than competition who in turn get suffocated by the lack of price increases.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“…Take a sample of five items in your clothes closet and examine the tabs on any zippers. Odds are that at least one is marked with the letters YKK. It was made by a Japanese firm, currently the world’s top zipper manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual revenue and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=db361be965&amp;e=5648501957\">40% global market share</a>—pretty impressive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the 1960s the incumbent zipper manufacturer, Talon, enjoyed a comfortably dominant position in its home market. Its name featured on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c4ae8fab6a&amp;e=5648501957\">seven out of ten tabs</a>. But a decade later it had lost half its market share and these days it barely rates just a few percentage points. This was a classic case of a monopoly coming unstuck after resting too long on its laurels. It didn’t do enough to improve productivity, so its prices were too high; it failed to innovate, consequently neglecting new applications such as handbags, luggage or outdoor gear; averse to risk, it exported little, despite the fact that textile manufacturing was fast relocating.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Soon after the Japanese firm was incorporated, it started building its own machines to achieve faster, higher-quality production. It also went abroad, soon setting up subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand, and Costa Rica. It first appeared in the US market in 1960, marketing zippers that were cheaper than Talon’s and comparable, if not better. YKK’s first US production unit followed 12 years later. In a humiliating blow to Talon, the pressure suits worn by the first two astronauts to walk on the moon were fitted with YKK zippers. It was as if James Bond’s zipper-unzipping magnetic watch in Live and Let Die hadn’t been invented by the gadget-master Q, but by the R&amp;D division at YKK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For our champion zipper manufacturer, one of these assets was its machine-tool know-how. Unlike its competitors, the Japanese firm based its expansion on developing its own materials and equipment. From the outset it designed its own tools and fed them proprietary materials. It only purchased plastic pellets and a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=48f3c64173&amp;e=5648501957\">mixture of alloys of its own invention</a>.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Under equivalent competitive conditions this will benefit the consumer because the price will be lower. Which is indeed the case in Melitz’s model. The same competitive regime prevails regardless of how open international trade may be. At equilibrium all the firms cover their average unit cost and none of them behave strategically. The firms go on operating as separate entities, as in a situation of perfect competition.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Yet international trade generally encourages the emergence and consolidation of powerful firms with substantial market share, or in other words oligopolies which coalesce and gather strength. So it changes the intensity and competition regime.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The humble zipper has profound things to tell us about international trade', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1257-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '2019-11-11 10:50:45', '', 1257, 'https://marcellus.in/1257-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2317, 1, '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '<em>Individuals’ right to privacy is one of the most intensely debated issues around the globe as technology has blurred the definition/meaning of privacy. Amazon’s Alexa has become very popular and has entered millions of homes across the world (78m smart speakers made Amazon, Google, etc were sold globally last year alone). Recent revelations that it is not just machines or software that are listening to your commands but “Amazon employs thousands of people around the world who listen to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering” will intensify the debate of right to privacy.\r\n“….Tens of millions of people use smart speakers and their voice software to play games, find music or trawl for trivia. Millions more are reluctant to invite the devices and their powerful microphones into their homes out of concern that someone might be listening. Sometimes, someone is.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Amazon.com Inc. employs thousands of people around the world to help improve the Alexa digital assistant powering its line of Echo speakers. The team listens to voice recordings captured in Echo owners’ homes and offices. The recordings are transcribed, annotated and then fed back into the software as part of an effort to eliminate gaps in Alexa’s understanding of human speech and help it better respond to commands. The Alexa voice review process, described by seven people who have worked on the program, highlights the often-overlooked human role in training software algorithms. In marketing materials Amazon says Alexa “lives in the cloud and is always getting smarter.” But like many software tools built to learn from experience, humans are doing some of the teaching….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The team comprises a mix of contractors and full-time Amazon employees who work in outposts from Boston to Costa Rica, India and Romania, according to the people, who signed nondisclosure agreements barring them from speaking publicly about the program. They work nine hours a day, with each reviewer parsing as many as 1,000 audio clips per shift…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Amazon says we have strict technical and operational safeguards, and have a zero tolerance policy for the abuse of our system and the process helps to improve the performance of the device…. Employees do not have direct access to information that can identify the person or account as part of this workflow.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. Amazon, in its marketing and privacy policy materials, doesn’t explicitly say humans are listening to recordings of some conversations picked up by Alexa. “We use your requests to Alexa to train our speech recognition and natural language understanding systems,” the company says in a list of frequently asked questions. In Alexa’s privacy settings, Amazon gives users the option of disabling the use of their voice recordings for the development of new features. The company says people who opt out of that program might still have their recordings analyzed by hand over the regular course of the review process. A screenshot reviewed by Bloomberg shows that the recordings sent to the Alexa reviewers don’t provide a user’s full name and address but are associated with an account number, as well as the user’s first name and the device’s serial number……..“Whether that’s a privacy concern or not depends on how cautious Amazon and other companies are in what type of information they have manually annotated, and how they present that information to someone,” he added.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….A recent Amazon job posting, seeking a quality assurance manager for Alexa Data Services in Bucharest, describes the role humans play: “Every day she [Alexa] listens to thousands of people talking to her about different topics and different languages, and she needs our help to make sense of it all.” The want ad continues: “This is big data handling like you’ve never seen it. We’re creating, labeling, curating and analyzing vast quantities of speech on a daily basis.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…..In homes around the world, Echo owners frequently speculate about who might be listening, according to two of the reviewers. “Do you work for the NSA?” they ask. “Alexa, is someone else listening to us?”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Thousands of Amazon Workers Listen to Alexa Users’ Conversations', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1255-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '2019-11-11 10:52:24', '', 1255, 'https://marcellus.in/1255-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2318, 1, '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '<em>This is an interesting and rewarding long read from an investment advisory firm in Houston. The article uses the stats &amp; the history of professional basketball in the US to draw analogies for stockmarket investing. The article appeals to us for the implications it has for our style of investing in well known, widely held and, dare we say it, boring long-term compounders which also pay a decent dividend. The authors explain that – in the American context – such stocks make you extremely wealthy in the long run. They also highlight that most American millionaires who hold such stocks live modest lives in unflashy homes with unflashy cars. [The flashier millionaires presumably give their money to hedge funds.]</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The star of the article is “George Mikan was the very first superstar of the NBA. He was the key to the league even surviving before it could thrive. Making him one of the most underappreciated athletes of all-time. Maybe because he was not athletic at all. His go-to move can best explain how to shoot a high percentage in the Stock Market as well, always has, but it has become equally under-utilized.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So what was the secret to George Mikan’s success? “George tweaked one of Meyer’s drills and developed his own simple routine. He took the ball directly under the basket and with one step learned how to lay it in with his right hand, jumping off his left foot. Catch it from the net with both hands. Then, one step to lay it in with the left hand, jumping off the right foot. Over and over, both the hands and feet learning the basic recipes for scoring anywhere close to the basket from any angle. George made three hundred of these 2-foot baskets per session. The Mikan Drill was born.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Inspite of the simplicity and effectiveness of Mikan’s idea, very few players today use it. Why? “Go into any gym and you will see the exact opposite being practiced today, thanks to the analytics boom from the NBA. You will see high schoolers wide open, with the ball in their hands in front of the rim unguarded, exactly where the Mikan drill begins. Only now, he is instructed to lean around under the backboard and rifle a one-handed pass 23-feet to the corner so the shooter can take one step…into a 3-pointer instead…No longer were players looking for good open shots, or even their favorite shots, as the first century of basketball instincts had taught them. Now, they were pre-programmed for what the computers said were the most efficient shots. Kevin O’Connor wrote, “An LED board wraps around the Rockets locker room, above each player’s stall. But it doesn’t flash motivational quotes from Vince Lombardi or Jack Ramsay; it shows stats: offensive rating, defensive rating, effective field goal percentage, and quality-shot percentage. You get the feeling you’re in a mad scientist’s lab — a stat geek’s man cave, not a sweaty locker room for alpha males.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The mad scientists wanted as many 3’s as possible now and the most precious element isolated in that lab is called the “short corner.” You see, in the far corner of the 3-point arc, by the baseline, it is exactly one foot closer to the rim. Untold billions of dollars began chasing that one foot when you add up all the contracts being given to 3-point specialists, staffs organizing offenses around them, and the technology departments being built from scratch to analyze this data….”\r\nThis obviously has striking parallel with quant investing in the stockmarket: “All that money and time and effort to find that one foot of difference sounds familiar in the Stock Market. It is no accident that some of the best quants on Wall Street are now leading sports franchises. Indexing with ETF’s have revolutionized their game as well. Unquestionably more efficient systems have taken over each sport.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Two’s Are Now Underestimated – The Mikan Drill For Stocks', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1253-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '2019-11-11 10:53:45', '', 1253, 'https://marcellus.in/1253-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2319, 1, '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '<em>As scores of people across the world take to meditation as a tool to enhance mental health, this interview with David Forbes, a professor at Brooklyn college, brings out how even this could be falling prey to capitalism. Calm, a popular mobile app used for meditation is already a unicorn (valued at over a billion dollars).</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The number of Americans who’ve tried meditation <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=726159fee4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>has tripled</strong></a> since 2012. And many are doing a specific practice with Buddhist roots called mindfulness, which involves directing your attention to your experience in the present moment with kindness and without judgment. The practice is increasingly being offered in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cc29397e9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>schools</strong></a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d164d5c33f&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>health care facilities,</strong></a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a01f3ab157&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>prisons</strong></a> to improve well-being. So how is this a bad thing?…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. The mindfulness you see in Buddhist communities is not the same mindfulness being promoted in corporations and schools across the country…. At the same time, mindfulness is also becoming an industry, and lots of companies are cashing in on it. … there are <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f6cbbbc8e4&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>money-making studios</strong></a> <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b1d550bea9&amp;e=5648501957\"><strong>popping up</strong></a> all over the place. And mindfulness is being marketed [by them] as very much an individualistic practice, which is not healthy and even further contributes to stress and ill-health.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhists seek to let go of attachment to the myth of the private, solid, unchanging self, and to promote universal compassion and end universal suffering.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But capitalist culture enforces the myth of the privatized, self-centered self. So unless mindfulness is employed in the service of making the world a better place — then practicing can and does end up serving to maintain the very self-centered, greedy, individualistic institutions and relationships that contribute to the lack of connected presence, kindness, and compassion that contribute to our unhappiness.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Buddhism has ethical values and practices such as non-violence. Its deeper moral stance is that we are interconnected with all beings, to all our social relationships and institutions, and with the earth itself.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>People will argue that you become kinder and more compassionate just by practicing mindfulness. But I believe people need a moral framework in addition to mindfulness, some social vision to guide them. I think [in many US contexts it has] been severed from this moral tradition. Without that, meditation can become just another tool of self-absorption.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… problem is that it ultimately doesn’t go far enough because it reinforces the sources of our unhappiness. As long as mindfulness is focused on the individual and not on our social situation, it will not help us change the conditions that are making us unhappy, namely a hyper-competitive, ultra-individualistic culture that separates and alienates us…”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e4f350da98&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Mindfulness meditation in America has a capitalism problem', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1275-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '2019-11-11 10:55:19', '', 1275, 'https://marcellus.in/1275-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2320, 1, '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '<em>Whilst India goes through its own debate over beef, it is intriguing to know that for over 12 centuries, meat eating was considered taboo in Japan. This may come across as a surprise to some people who have found Japan to be the haven for quality beef or have seen other unconventional meat on menus of Japanese restaurants. Whilst the advent of Buddhism was a factor, there were practical reasons around the terrain not being conducive for rearing animals for meat and the simple scarcity of animals, which would rather be used in farms.\r\n“For both religious and practical reasons, the Japanese mostly avoided eating meat for more than 12 centuries. Beef was especially taboo, with certain shrines demanding more than 100 days of fasting as penance for consuming it. The story of Japan’s shift away from meat began with the arrival of Buddhism from Korea in the 6th century. At that time, the Japanese were meat eaters. Venison and wild boar (which was sometimes called yama kujira, or “mountain whale”) were particularly popular. Aristocrats enjoyed hunting and feasting on deer entrails and wild fowl.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But the meat ban also had secular roots. Even before Buddhism, meat wasn’t an essential part of the Japanese diet. As a nation of islands, Japan has always relied on fish and seafood as staples. … Raising animals is resource-intensive, so Japanese farmers working with limited space in their mountainous island nation largely avoided it. It was also in the best interest of the country to discourage the eating of useful farm animals, since there were relatively few of them in Japan.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. One government decree stated that anyone who’d eaten wild goat, wolf, rabbit, or raccoon dog (tanuki) was required to repent for five days before visiting a shrine. Those who’d eaten pork or venison, however, were required to repent for 60 days. For eaters of beef and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3907a4a869&amp;e=5648501957\">horse meat</a>, it was 150 days. On the rare occasions that they did eat meat, Japanese people cooked it on fires outside the home and avoided looking directly at their altars afterwards so as not to contaminate them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When Portuguese missionaries arrived in Japan in the early 16th century, they had been counseled that the locals considered drinking milk to be like drinking blood and that eating beef was unthinkable. Even the warlord Toyotomi Hideyoshi supposedly questioned Portuguese missionaries on their practice of eating beef, as cows were so useful <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6727b3e79a&amp;e=5648501957\">as farm animals.</a> Nevertheless, the Portuguese were able to spread some of their cuisine <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4c2e99d9ca&amp;e=5648501957\">to the locals</a>, including sweets, tempura, and beef, which Kyotoites called waka, from the Portuguese vaca.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Dietary customs began to change faster in the late 19th century. After Emperor Meiji assumed power in 1868, the Japanese government moved to end their two centuries of isolation and adopt Western practices and technology as quickly as possible. Plus, many believed “that one reason why the Japanese had poor physiques compared to Westerners was that they did not eat meat or dairy products,” <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ddab980aba&amp;e=5648501957\">writes Ishige.</a></em>\r\n\r\n<em>.. One prefectural decree from 1872 reads “Although beef is a wonderfully nutritious food, there are still a great number of people barring our attempt at westernization by clinging to conventional customs,” adding, “Such action is contrary to the wishes of the Emperor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the end, the wishes of the Emperor prevailed. As Japan opened up to the world, it began to absorb meat-based dishes from Korea, China, and the West. Soon, expensive Western-style restaurants serving meat popped up in cities, followed by affordable Japanese restaurants serving a medicinal beef stew, which would evolve into the dish sukiyaki. Today, the Japanese eat almost as much meat as they do seafood. While it took a few decades, meat is now as much a part of Japanese cuisine as sushi.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why Eating Meat Was Banned in Japan for Centuries', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1273-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '2019-11-11 10:57:16', '', 1273, 'https://marcellus.in/1273-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2321, 1, '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '<em>Kolkata is witnessing a new type of theatre. Called site-specific theatre, these are plays which are staged in the city’s grand old homes. “Site-specific theatre, a term that The Guardian says has been gaining traction since the 1980s, refers to productions that are not in the traditional theatre space but grow out of the sites where they are performed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This article begins with a play called 32 Ashwini Dutta Road (performed in a house with that address): “When we, the audience, knocked at 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, a handsome, 80-year-old South Kolkata residence, a young girl opened the door and welcomed us in absent-mindedly. She led the way to the baithak khana (living room), a high-ceilinged room belonging to a different Kolkata, the Calcutta of yore, which had grand houses with window sills wide enough for two to sit comfortably. The girl settled us in before getting into a heated chat with her friend and neighbour about the family pressure she was facing to get married. What we were witnessing was the play, 32 Ashwini Dutta Road, arguably the first site-specific production in Bengali…The play is conceptualised by the interdisciplinary artist Sujoy Prosad Chatterjee, who first saw such a performance in a heritage house in Toronto, which was once home to a former mayor.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, why bother with staging plays in old houses? “Kolkata was once packed with these family seats, described by Amartya Sen as “eccentric” and “beautiful” in his letter of support to novelist Amit Chaudhuri’s campaign for conserving these properties. The city’s centre was the business district, made up of British neo-classical buildings and Armenian and Jewish mansions. A large number of these family houses have been replaced with unlovely apartments today. The houses that remain have emptied out, many of the rooms are locked up, their residents now in distant cities.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Chatterjee’s project, running till March, wants to make use of such houses again. Not only in the older, more historic neighbourhoods of Bhawanipore and Ballygunge, but also in relatively new suburbs like Salt Lake, where too many houses are now thinly inhabited. At the end of the performance, Chatterjee invites the audience to start performances like this in their localities. Aside from reimagining these spaces, he hopes that projects like his will rekindle a sense of community in these hollowed-out neighbourhoods. When you visit someone’s home and walk through their rooms and sit on their beds, it’s hard not to start a conversation.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'In Kolkata, home is where the drama is', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1271-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '2019-11-11 11:03:56', '', 1271, 'https://marcellus.in/1271-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2322, 1, '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '<em>Chinese mobile handset manufacturers dominating the Indian mobile devices market was not surprising given their dominance in manufacturing but Chinese apps taking over the Indian app ecosystem is a big surprise for many. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Few reasons for the spectacular success of Chinese: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular Indian users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings. Chinese companies are fast learning the nuances of doing business in India. They opt for local talent and local content to make inroads in the Indian market. Companies are not focussing on the top 100 million urban crowd which is well served. Their target is the next 200 million to 600 million consumers, who do not have a go-to entertainment, payment or ecommerce platform yet. Shadma rings the alarm bell for Indian players and says “If Indian app entrepreneurs can make good learnings from the Chinese invading their fief, it may stem the hollowing out of the Indian app ecosystem.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….TikTok is a Youtube killer.” “Helo is giving ShareChat a tough time and has a higher chance of winning India market.” “TikTok is like Instagram for India.” “Bigo Live is a platform for companionship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For those trying to make sense of the Chinese dominance of the Indian app ecosystem, these are familiar statements. Yet, until about a year or a little more ago, these platforms and their Chinese parents were not heard of. Now, they are not just a rage but have inspired several dozens of other platforms to launch and experiment in the internet booming India market. 2018 is likely to be remembered as the year when the Chinese took over Indian smartphones. In December 2017, the top 10 mobile apps on Google Playstore looked a lot different than what they look from a year later. The Playstore rankings for India in 2018 have China written all over it. Five out of the top 10 mobile apps in India are Chinese — versus two at the end of 2017. That’s not all. As of December 2017, there were 18 Chinese apps among the top 100 across various categories on Google Playstore. These included popular ones such as UCBrowser, SHAREit, and NewsDog. Fast forward to the end of 2018. The number of Chinese apps in the top 100 Playstore apps has reached 44. Beyond the top 100, there are others like Rozbuzz, a social entertainment content platform, and YouStar, a video chat room platform, that enjoy a more than one million downloads in India – a threshold that evokes grudging respect in this app community……..There are many things that are common between Chinese apps launching in India: deep pockets for marketing expense, focus on vernacular India users, an addictive user interface, racy content, quick iterations and execution cycles, and cheap offerings to name a few. Also, there’s a huge emphasis to shed the “Chinese” tag. This could be an effort to address the general mistrust among Indians of Chinese products or a precautionary PR exercise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In 2012, when Tencent’s relatively popular messenger WeChat launched in India it spared no expense in marketing and branding of the product. From product launches in malls to roping in popular Bollywood actors as brand ambassadors, WeChat launched and acquired users with commendable speed. But as the platform started getting more mainstream in China, its growth in India tanked. By 2015, Tencent wound up its WeChat team in India. “A lot of it had to do with failing to localise the platform for India,” says Himanshu Gupta, former associate director of marketing and strategy, WeChat India. Nevertheless, WeChat’s failure presents learnings for the Chinese ambitions of making India their next big market. Not only are Chinese entrepreneurs aware of it, but they also understand the nuances of the India market. This is evident from the strategy adopted by popular Chinese players in the India vernacular content market. For example, Helo by ByteDance has a local team entirely based in New Delhi…….</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Chinese takeover of Indian app ecosystem', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1269-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '2019-11-11 11:05:52', '', 1269, 'https://marcellus.in/1269-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2323, 1, '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '<em>The article begins with a description of Dr Devi Shetty, the founder &amp; promoter of Narayana Hrudayalaya – a chain of heart centres and multi-specialty hospitals – performing a complicated heart surgery. “…pulmonary thromboendarterectomy, the surgery Shetty performed, can tie up an operating room for most of a day. In the U.S., the procedure can cost more than $200,000. Shetty did it for about $10,000 and turned a profit. A cardiac surgeon by training, Shetty is the founder and chairman of Narayana Health, a chain of 23 hospitals across India that may be the cheapest full-service health-care provider in the world….Narayana has made Shetty one of India’s best-known doctors and the proprietor of a lucrative business, with about $8 million in profit in 2017.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Shetty now wants to reduce the price of his firm’s services further to meet the rates set by the Ayushman Bharat healthcare program: “…Narayana needs to find ways to cut costs further—and then keep cutting. Shetty thinks he can do it and, in the process, create a model for ultralow-cost health care that can be applied anywhere. “We are trying to produce a pilot for the rest of the world to follow,” he said over a lunch of curries and fried fish after scrubbing out from the heart operation. He was still wearing his surgical cap. “In 10 years, India will become the first country in the world to dissociate health from affluence. India will prove that the wealth of the nation has nothing to do with the quality of health care its citizens can enjoy”… For a surgery like the one he’d just performed, Modicare would provide only $1,300.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Central to Shetty’s success is upskilling or task-shifting: “In the mid-1990s, Shetty began experimenting with a business school concept alternately called upskilling or task-shifting. The idea is for everyone involved in a complex process to work only at the top of his qualification, leaving simpler tasks to lower-paid workers. In a hospital, this might mean that the costliest staff—experienced surgeons—enter the operating theater only to complete the most difficult part of a procedure, leaving everything else to junior doctors or well-trained nurses. Then they move to the next theater to perform the same task again.”\r\nIn 2000, with seed funding from his father-in-law, Shetty put his assembly line method of surgery into place …”to create the first Narayana hospital, which would put assembly line surgery into action. (Narayana was the benefactor’s middle name.) Initially focused solely on cardiac procedures, Shetty gradually expanded Narayana’s remit to include most major operations and set up regional hospitals that could feed patients with complex conditions into its two largest facilities: the Bangalore flagship and another in Kolkata. Within a decade the company had a national network and, in 2014, even opened in the Cayman Islands, in part to attract medical tourists from the U.S. Two years later, Narayana Health went public in Mumbai; it’s been continuously profitable since.”\r\nAnother colleague of Devi Shetty explains how the Narayana system works to sustain profitability: “Everyone does as much as they can,” Ashwinikumar Kudari, a senior gastrointestinal surgeon, says toward the end of a busy day at the Bangalore hospital. He’s just removed two malignant tumors the size of golf balls from a middle-aged woman’s intestines—the seventh surgery he’s performed or supervised since morning. A compact man with a trim mustache and a wry smile, Kudari is soon on the move again, checking in briefly on a gallstone removal next door before dashing up a spiral staircase to another operating theater. There, he takes over from a colleague who’s struggling to locate a particularly tricky fistula. “Our margins are low on one surgery, but because we do so many in a day, we can make enough,” he remarks after the elusive fistula—the longest he’s ever seen—is found, running from the man’s anus to above his groin. By working at this pace, the average Narayana surgeon performs as many as six times more procedures annually than an American counterpart.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That’s not all. Devi Shetty has squeezed savings out of many other parts of his hospitals’ operations: “The surgical gowns are procured from a local company for about a third of the cost of international suppliers. The tubes that carry blood to heart-and-lung machines are sterilized and reused after each surgery; in the West, they’re thrown away. The machines themselves, along with devices such as CT and MRI scanners, are used well past their warranties, kept running by a team of in-house mechanics. The operating rooms, pieces of real estate so expensive that many hospitals bill for their use by the minute, are also part of the assembly line. Whereas preparing a U.S. surgical theater for the next patient can take 30 minutes or more, Narayana has gotten the process down to less than 15, in part by keeping turnaround teams with fresh instruments, drapes, and other supplies on immediate standby, ready to roll the moment a room is available. Even patients’ families are part of the upskilling model. Narayana trains them to bathe patients and change bandages in the hospital, as they’ll do when they get home. This allows paid staff to focus on more challenging work. Through all these methods and more, Narayana has been able to get the retail cost of a heart bypass, its most common operation, down to $2,000, about 98 percent less than the U.S. average.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The World’s Cheapest Hospital Has to Get Even Cheaper', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1267-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '2019-11-11 11:07:29', '', 1267, 'https://marcellus.in/1267-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2324, 1, '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '<em>In 1988, David Shaw, a computer science professor in Columbia University created a small company above a bookshop – Revolution Books – in New York City. That startup is today one of the largest hedge funds in the world – DE Shaw has US$50bn of assets under management. It is the fourth highest grossing hedge fund of all time having generated nearly US$29bn for its clients since inception.\r\nThis article on the secretive hedge fund – based on a series of interviews with its senior management – is the closest most of us will get to understanding one of the first and most successful quant funds: “…DE Shaw has evolved dramatically from the algorithmic, computer-driven “quantitative” trading it helped pioneer in the 1980s. It is now a leader in combining quantitative investing with traditional “fundamental” strategies driven by humans, such as stockpicking. This symbiosis has been dubbed “quantamental” by asset managers now attempting to do the same. Many in the industry believe this is the future…The combination of DE Shaw’s performance and the secrecy around exactly what it does both vexes and fascinates rivals and counterparties. “They’re like a calibrated machine that can respond to nearly every market,” says the head of an investment bank’s hedge fund trading desk.”\r\nDE Shaw’s performance numbers are already the stuff of legend: “Last year its flagship $14bn Composite Fund — which has been closed to new investors since 2013 — returned over 11 per cent to investors net of fees, despite the turmoil in financial markets. That was its seventh double-digit gain of the past decade, over which period it has not suffered a losing year. Its $7.6bn “macro” fund, Oculus, returned 5.9 per cent in 2018, and the $7bn stocks-focused Valence made 8 per cent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 1300 people (including 80 PhDs) who work at DE Shaw use a mixture of quantitative and discretionary approaches to make money. It would appear that in all of these approaches, quantitative techniques provide the main framework with discretion being applied at the margin. However, “DE Shaw runs some quant strategies so complex or quick that they are in practice almost beyond human understanding — something that many quantitative analysts are reluctant to concede. The goal is to find patterns on the fuzzy edge of observability in financial markets, so faint that they haven’t already been exploited by other quants. They then hoard as many of these signals as possible and systematically mine them until they run dry — and repeat the process. These can range from tiny, fleeting arbitrage opportunities between closely-linked stocks that only machines can detect, to using new alternative data sets such as satellite imagery and mobile phone data to get a better understanding of a company’s results.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, the biggest opportunities, the firm believes are in good old fashioned long-only equity investing: “DE Shaw still sees plenty of opportunities in the quantitative investing side, especially its “long-only”, non-hedge fund investing business, DE Shaw Investment Management. DESIM has quintupled in size since 2011 and now manages $24bn. To grow this further, the company is expanding into something dubbed “risk premia”, systematically exploiting theoretically timeless drivers of returns, such as the tendency for smaller or cheaper stocks to outperform the overall market over time.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'DE Shaw: inside Manhattan’s ‘Silicon Valley’ hedge fund', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1265-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '2019-11-11 11:12:34', '', 1265, 'https://marcellus.in/1265-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2325, 1, '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '<em>Technology is changing the way we interact and communicate with each other and Instagram is fast becoming the preferred mode for millennials to interact with the world. With over a billion monthly Instagram users, people are preferring to exchange their Instagram handle rather than exchanging their mobile number. Taylor points to various advantages of using and sharing Instagram – access to full name &amp; bio of the user, direct line of contact through Instagram DM, easy to disconnect any follower. The growth of new age technology Instagram, WhatsApp &amp; the likes is resulting in iMessage &amp; SMS getting obsolete very fast.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“When Chris Rackliffe, a motivational speaker in New York, met a potential friend at a bar last weekend, it never occurred to him to exchange phone numbers. Instead, the two swapped Instagram handles, and have been liking each other’s posts. Rackliffe said they’ll probably meet up in person again soon. “It’s so much more casual to give someone your Instagram handle and keep in touch through stories and DMs,” Rackliffe said. “Swapping numbers feels so serious and stiff nowadays.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As Instagram has grown to more than a billion monthly users, it has also morphed into people’s default public internet profile and communication method. “I cannot imagine preferring phone number to Instagram handle,” said Ziad Ahmed, the founder of Juv, a Generation Z consulting agency. While many people message frequently throughout the day with their closest friends, Instagram is particularly great for connecting with people you don’t know super well, or have just met.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Usually someone hands you their phone, and you follow yourself on their Instagram,” said Rachel Schultz, who works in the advertising industry. “It’s nice because you can then share things with them like events or funny things or whatever they’re into, which makes nourishing new friendships easy.” Crucially, Instagram provides much more context—and conversation fodder—than a random string of 10 digits. Because iMessage and SMS don’t come with public profiles, when someone texts you from a number outside your contacts, you have little to no information on who that person is or where you met. Sometimes people will provide this information themselves via text, but often you’re left guessing. But adding people on Instagram is like scanning a digital business card into your address book. You get their full name and bio, and a direct line of contact through Instagram DM. Plus, you have the added benefit of scrolling back on their profile for additional context on who they are and what they’re into.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A person’s Instagram posts provide a stream of conversation prompts: Maybe you’ll just reply to a Story, asking about that lunchtime pasta, or notice that the new acquaintance is nearby and ask to meet up for a drink. One of the hardest parts of fostering a new connection is figuring out how to reach out and start a conversation out of thin air. Instagram makes it easy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>John Colucci, a social strategist in Seattle, said he’s even seen the insta swap become more popular in business settings. In fact, he has all but done away with his physical business cards. Instagram is “a less intense, light-touch connection,” he said. It’s notably less uptight than LinkedIn, said Allison Winer, a public-relations strategist in Baltimore. “LinkedIn is so stale when it comes to being interactive, and then exchanging numbers is a little too formal and close for comfort,” she told me. And, of course, because Instagram is such a good way to get a sense of someone’s personality and interests, it’s also a great way to suss out dating opportunities. Winer said that men nearly always ask for her Instagram handle as opposed to her phone number. “To be honest, I always try to look them up that way too,” she said. “It gives you a little insight into their life and, of course, selfies.” Many dating apps, such as Tinder and Bumble, even allow users to sync their Instagram profiles so suitors can browse their recent pics. In 2017, New York magazine coined the term Tindstagramming, for the growing phenomenon of men who slide directly into women’s DMs on Instagram looking for a date. Revealing your phone number to too many people can also be a security concern. Once someone adds your number to a contacts list, finding your profiles on other apps is easy. Given the prevalence of two-factor authentication, keeping your phone number private is an important part of thwarting SIM-card hackers. “I avoid giving my [phone number] out unless I know a person very well,” said Nima Gardideh, a tech worker and entrepreneur, citing security concerns…. Instagram swapping doesn’t work in all contexts. Many users, particularly older ones, still consider the platform personal and are uncomfortable being followed by, for example, more junior members at work. But there are signs the practice is spreading. After I recently posed the question in a Facebook group for Bay Area parents, many moms revealed that they preferred connecting via Instagram before giving away more detailed contact information.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I asked to exchange phone numbers for texting with another mom, and I felt a weird vibe, like I was being intrusive,” commented Tina Grove. “I think I should have asked for her Instagram handle instead.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7825770e5d&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How Instagram Replaced the Contacts List', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1190-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '2019-11-11 11:14:13', '', 1190, 'https://marcellus.in/1190-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2326, 1, '2019-11-11 11:17:20', '2019-11-11 11:17:20', 'India draws a third of its water from aquifers. However, these aquifers are depleting at a rapid rate. <em>“Most of the world’s water systems that keep the ecosystems thriving and feed a growing human population are under severe stress.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands in its report, Global Wetland Outlook: State of World’s Wetlands and their Services to People (2018), makes an alarming observation that up to 87 per cent of the global wetland resource has been lost since 1700. The analysis of satellite data of NASA underlines that half of the earth’s 37 largest aquifers are running too fast to be replenished and an additional 13 are declining at a faster rate… The United Nations in its World Water Development Report 2018 has highlighted that the global water use has increased by a factor of six over the past 100 years and continues to grow at a rate of one per cent per year. Competitive demand for water from various sectors has resulted in water scarcity that is affecting almost every part of the world.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The World Bank in its latest report has underlined that the Ganga River Basin could see drinking water shortage go up by as much as 39 per cent in some States by 2040. A recent study (2016) from the University of Twente, Netherlands, warns that two-third of the global population lives with severe water scarcity for at least one month every year and nearly half of those people live in India and China.”\r\nWith specific reference to India, the situation is more serious than many of us imagine it to be. In fact, 30 years hence India could become an importer of water: “The water crisis in India is more dire than imagined. The annual per capita availability of water continues to decline sharply from about 5,177 cubic metres in 1951 to about 1,720 cubic metres in 2019. The NITI Aayog in its report on Composite Water Management Index (2018) has underlined that currently 600 million people face high to extreme water stress, about two lakh die every year due to inadequate access to safe water, about three-fourths of the household do not get drinking water at their premise and about 70 per cent of water is contaminated.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The rate of groundwater extraction is so severe that NASA’s findings suggest that India’s water table is declining alarmingly at a rate of about 0.3 metres per year. At this rate of depletion, India will have only 22 per cent of the present daily per capita water available in 2050, possibly forcing the country to import water.”\r\nSo what is the way forward? What remedies do we have on hand? “The World Bank, in its report India’s Water Economy: Bracing for a Turbulent Future (2006), had outlined that dams in India have the capacity to store only about 30 days of rainfall, compared with 900 days in major river basins in arid areas of developed countries. Hence, more efforts need to be taken to develop water infrastructure in a decentralised manner by shifting the focus to cost-effective methods.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Small water bodies (mainly tanks) are less capital-intensive, user-friendly with fewer environmental problems and augment groundwater resources through sub-surface recharge.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, most small water bodies have been encroached and subject to centuries of neglect and mismanagement. The Standing Committee on Water Resources on “Repair, Renovation and Restoration of Water Bodies” highlighted in its 16th report that out of 5.56 lakh tanks in the country, only 4.71 lakh tanks are in use.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Can India provide water for all by 2030?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1187-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:17:20', '2019-11-11 11:17:20', '', 1187, 'https://marcellus.in/1187-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2327, 1, '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '<em>In what looks like a classic sign of a “bubble”, public investors are valuing unprofitable companies higher than they are profitable ones that entered public stock exchanges last year. “Those are the findings from a new PitchBook report on the stock performance of US unicorns. The study looked at the median stock-price change for startups valued at more than a billion dollars when they went public.\r\nFor the unprofitable ones that went public in 2018, their median stock-price growth has been 120 percent on an annualized basis, from the IPO offering price through March 12 of this year. The median decline for stocks that were profitable has been 57 percent for 2018… In general over the past nine years, profitability has barely made a difference for performance…. “In general, you’re not seeing a huge preference either way in public markets for if a company has been profitable or unprofitable at its IPO,” Cameron Stanfill, an analyst at PitchBook and the report’s author, told Recode…“They believe in the business model and are disregarding the current state of profitability at the IPO,” Stanfill said.”</em>', 'Money-losing companies that went public in 2018 did better than profitable ones', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1185-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '2019-11-11 11:19:50', '', 1185, 'https://marcellus.in/1185-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2328, 1, '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '<em>Oxford Economics says that thanks to aggressive bond investments from Chinese investors, public debt in frontier markets is at its highest level since 2004. “  More worrying still, the credit boom largely appears to have been wasted, with the countries that have borrowed the most having the lowest levels of investment, suggesting much of the money has not been put to productive use.”\r\nChina’s Belt &amp; Road Initiative seems to be responsible for much of the rise in public debt. “Project finance to the 17 frontier countries examined by Oxford Economics has risen 26-fold since 2009 to $280bn, almost half of which has flowed to just three: Pakistan, Nigeria and Argentina, according to the China Global Investment Tracker…Some $32bn of these deals are already characterised as “troubled transactions” by the CGIT.”\r\nOver and above these bonds, there are also bilateral loans extended by China. However, data on just how much China has lent via bilateral loans is not publicly available.\r\nOverall,</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“debt levels have since risen back towards their early 2000s peak…with Costa Rica, Ghana and Ecuador seeing the biggest rises in borrowing and Lebanon, Ukraine and Sri Lanka having the highest absolute levels of debt. Worse still, less of this is in the form of concessional lending from western governments and multinational bodies than was the case earlier this century. As a result, non-concessional debt — whether from China or via the bond markets — has risen to 17 per cent of median GDP, above the early 2000s peak.”\r\nAnd what is the result of all this lending by China? “Pakistan’s attempts to secure an IMF bailout have already been complicated by the murky nature of Chinese lending, which has rendered it hard to judge whether the country’s debt is sustainable.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In Sri Lanka, China has taken control of Hambantota port and 15,000 acres of adjacent land after the island nation was unable to service a $1.2bn loan used to build the facility…This need to fund larger deficits could be why little of the fresh borrowing appears to be funding productive investment, despite this being the clear objective of China’s BRI-related project financing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Frontier market debt at a 15-year high', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1183-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '2019-11-11 11:21:26', '', 1183, 'https://marcellus.in/1183-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2329, 1, '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '<em>This is a thrilling read about the secret network of NGOs and brokers rescuing thousands of North Korean refugees through hidden and treacherous routes across China and South East Asia into South Korea. Doug Bock Clark, the author of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=73bd6cee19&amp;e=5648501957\">‘The Last Whalers’</a>, has written this piece with the support of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting. The piece builds the narrative around two stories – one of a North Korean woman named Faith who crossed over to China with the help of smugglers who in turn sold her off to a Chinese man (millions of Chinese men left willing to buy wives given the gender imbalance from the one-child policy) then escaped to Vietnam and Cambodia where she sought asylum at the South Korean embassy; and the second about a man named Stephen Kim (called by some as the Oskar Schindler of North Korea) who helped Faith and hundreds of other refugees escape the oppressive North Korean regime. At the end of the riveting read, Doug adds a reality check to the stories highlighting the potential sensationalism to Kim’s narratives and likely swindling of funds from desperate refugees and unassuming NGO’s especially given the secretive nature of the whole operation. Yet, the fact there is an effort to take on the ruthless regime and its friendly super power of a neighbour – China, and save thousands of lives is heart warming nonetheless.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Normally it would be the responsibility of the United Nations to assist the thousands of North Koreans hiding in China. Instead, because China labels North Koreans “economic migrants” rather than refugees at the behest of its ally North Korea, “it is up to the heroic civilians of the Underground Railroad to risk their lives to do what the international community is prevented from doing by China,” said Suzanne Scholte, president of the Defense Forum Foundation. Over two decades, Underground Railroad activists have built up a network of secret routes and safe houses to transport refugees across Asia and, in doing so, have managed to fill in where some of the world’s most powerful institutions have failed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>…Stephen Kim is a man</strong> whose life has been shrouded in legend. For leading the rescue of over 700 North Koreans, he has been called “the Oskar Schindler of North Korea,” a nickname that he shares with several other humanitarians who do similar work. Associates refer to him by the code name Superman, and he has been called “<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f2e29299e3&amp;e=5648501957\">mythical</a>” by human-rights activists, as reported by The Times of London</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….“No one has a perfect bird’s-eye view of the history of the Underground Railroad,” said Tim Peters, the founder and director of Helping Hands Korea, a prominent rescue NGO that has saved more than 1,000 people, “as all rescue organizations silo their information,” given the sensitive nature of the work. That said, after talking to 13 people involved in the Underground Railroad, I think that the following seems clear: The individual efforts of several dozen South Korean, American, Japanese, and Chinese activists in the late 1990s coalesced into several formal organizations by the early 2000s. Some sneaked refugees into South Korean and other sympathetic embassies in China until security became too tight. Others favored the Mongolian route, before China sealed it in the mid-2000s. This meant the primary way out was to cross all of China and then much of Southeast Asia. Although North and South Korea are divided only by the impenetrably fortified 2.5-mile-wide demilitarized zone, the journey between the nations had become one of about 6,000 miles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….As the Underground Railroad expanded, the number of North Koreans arriving in Seoul skyrocketed. In 2001, Kang was one of just more than 1,000 arrivals. By 2007, that number rose to over 2,500. So much success, however, prompted China to crack down. The missionaries had little experience running clandestine networks, and many began to be jailed or disappeared. Kim kept his cover as a businessman but increasingly found himself harassed by Chinese police.</em>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>….As Faith journeyed</strong> across Asia, Kim kept close tabs on her group and steered them via encrypted communications with his agents, doling out payments via wire transfers. (An escape costs about $2,000 to $2,500 per person.) During Faith’s escape attempt, security was tight in the Laos-China region, where today’s standard route has refugees hike through jungles into Laos, cross the Mekong River on fishing boats into Thailand, and then claim asylum at the South Korean embassy. So instead, Kim piloted Faith’s group on a relatively new and risky route, toward Vietnam, planning to extract them through the South Korean embassy in Cambodia.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By then, in 2017, the situation had gotten so critical, with widespread arrests and only 1,127 refugees making it to freedom, that some activists worried about the future of the Underground Railroad. “My fear is that we will continue to see a decline in escapees,” explained Sokeel Park, a director for the NGO Liberty in North Korea (LiNK), which has rescued over 1,000 refugees, “with escapees possibly diminishing to a few hundred annually in the future.” Other activists worried that if the Thailand route closed, there would be no viable backups to handle large numbers of refugees.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The loss of the Underground Railroad would deprive the world of an essential humanitarian institution. By the end of 2018, the seven public rescue organizations had saved at least 5,000 North Koreans, according to numbers provided by them.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Underground Railroad of North Korea', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1181-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '2019-11-11 11:22:40', '', 1181, 'https://marcellus.in/1181-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2330, 1, '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '<em>Since the Facebook Cambridge Analytica scandal in 2018, data privacy and misuse of data are among the key concerns for Government and Legal watchdogs across the world. Critics use the same concerns to red flag Google’s ambitious smart city project in Toronto, Canada. Google thought its subsidiary has won the bid to develop 12 acres stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto into a high-tech city at the expense of USD 1bn. The city will aim to address ubiquitous urban problems – congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing as well as try to control the temperature through an innovative ‘raincoat’ technology. However, the downside of the new city is that every move of its residents will be recorded and monitored through hidden cameras across the city.\r\nDespite all the backlash, Canadians do not want to shelve the project immediately. Anna points towards a February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board which shows that 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. Success or failure of Google’s project will have a huge impact on how new cities are developed in the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The former fish processing plant is so unremarkable that, at first, my taxi driver speeds right past it. He shrugs as we come to a stop in an empty parking lot across the street. Along a dreary 12-acre stretch of forgotten waterfront land on the outskirts of Toronto sits a boxy blue building, almost invisible among the factories and highway. The land is neglected now, but that will change if Google has its way. This is the site where the technology company wants to build a city of the future.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One of the project’s main aims is to address ubiquitous urban problems, such as congestion, inefficient services and unaffordable housing. Illustrative plans featuring futuristic, mass-timber buildings were released in February. The structures, some by Thomas Heatherwick’s studio and Snøhetta, an architectural practice based in Norway, were imagined towering over the shoreline of Lake Ontario. Google’s blue building houses the planning operation and exhibition centre, which it has assembled in preparation for a decision — expected within months — by the city’s authorities. Inside, it is more like a science museum than a Google-owned HQ. A model of a “dynamic street” made up of hexagonal wooden blocks, and a prototype of a “raincoat” — transparent, domed plastic awnings that would attach to buildings and cover the areas in front — are on display.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The raincoat’s climate technology, it is claimed, would make residents feel warm in winter and cool in summer for at least 50 days a year. Given the average temperature in Toronto falls to -7C in winter and reaches 27C in July, life could become pretty comfortable…….But what has caused most alarm is that, in this quayside city of the future, residents’ every move would be recorded. Inevitably, anxieties about privacy and covert surveillance have followed. Small hidden cameras would snap low-resolution images of people and cars as they move through the streets. Sidewalk says its systems would blur identifiable information, label pictures either “pedestrian” or “vehicle”, then enter it into a “public data trust”. The data would be used to plan services in real time, in what it calls a “feedback of residents”……..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In many ways, Google’s ambitions are nothing new. Grand attempts at “smart cities” in North America date back to the 1960s, when Walt Disney dreamt up the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow — Epcot for short — a Floridian city of the future underpinned by technology. Disney died before his vision could be realised on the scale he had imagined. Today, a new generation of tech visionaries has taken up the same challenge, seeking to reimagine the spaces in which we live. Apple, Amazon and Google have all bought chunks of land across the US. In 2017, a Bill Gates-run investment company spent $80m on a piece of Arizona desert land to build a “smart city”, tentatively called Belmont.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But the Waterfront Toronto project represents North America’s biggest, most ambitious smart-city test case: up to 350 acres of untouched urban land in one of the continent’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas. At first, Canadians cheered; 18 months on, the project risks generating more resentment than enthusiasm. Sidewalk’s plans have upset many people. Critics include local technologists, property developers, politicians from both the left-leaning NDP and Conservative parties, urbanists, academics, privacy experts, business leaders and the Canadian Civil Liberties Union…….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….With hundreds of smart city pilot projects under way around the world, “this is a cautionary tale”, says Balsillie. “Data spreads seamlessly. These data strategies are not just contained to this piece of land. It’s like somebody is putting a virus in your backyard.” At this point “it’s a real question mark”, says Cavoukian, over whether Google-ification will ever happen. Critics such as Julie DiLorenzo, a prominent Toronto property developer, say Sidewalk has only revealed pie-in-the-sky renderings, and seems unable to answer concrete questions such as how the project will be financed and whether people will be able to opt out of data collection.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“They’ve come in here and made all these assumptions about what the people of Toronto want,” says one local developer. “The raincoat idea to effectively be inside all the time. We want to be outside; the cold is part of our culture and this city.” But despite the backlash, it seems Canadians do not want to say goodbye to Google just yet. A February poll commissioned by Toronto’s trade board showed 55 per cent of Torontonians still support the project and 76 per cent feel it should carry on as long as public interests are safeguarded. “The Board of Trade is glad that Sidewalk Labs is here and glad the company has a shot at bringing innovative development ideas to Quayside, alongside our growing smart cities sector in Toronto,” says Jan De Silva chief executive of Toronto’s trade board. “But our support isn’t unconditional.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Future shock: inside Google’s smart city', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1178-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '2019-11-11 11:24:21', '', 1178, 'https://marcellus.in/1178-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2331, 1, '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '<em>When we are young, we want to do something creative, something fun in our lives. As we grow older, other considerations kick in and often we find ourselves stuck in a career which is anything but fund &amp; creative. Janan Ganesh delves into why this happens and what we can do stop the next generation getting caught in the same rat race.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The bitterest divide among working people I know is not money, even though their incomes now range from well south of the national average to the tens of millions. It is the extent to which they are able to express themselves in their work…Those who cannot are apt to lose themselves in the extramural with an avidity that only makes me wonder at what they must be escaping. Beyond a certain level of material comfort…people start casting restlessly around for opportunities to create.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…art forms that have always struck me as monstrously over-supplied, such as fiction and, in Britain, stand-up comedy, now make all the sense in the world. Many of the jobbing practitioners did not start out in these fields at 18 or 21. They are eking out an escapist sideline to their unloved careers. They are not dilettantes. They are more desperate than that…Regardless, they will keep writing or acting or honing jokes until they absolutely have to give it up…To have no outlet at all is a kind of death.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These are, I realise, improbable candidates for sympathy. They are well into the fourth tier of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. They have sustenance, material trappings (often lots of them), intimate relationships and professional respect. It is just that the transition into the fifth tier — “self-actualisation” — turns out to be a great divider in life….The young, when charting their way in life, deserve to know.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What makes a fulfilling career? Ask a teenager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1201-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '2019-11-11 11:33:39', '', 1201, 'https://marcellus.in/1201-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2332, 1, '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '<em>The article describes a remarkable exchange of letters between Irishman Alan Joyce is the CEO of Qantas Airways and 10 year old, Alex Jacquot, the self-appointed CEO of Australia’s newest airline company, Oceania Express.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Alex wrote to Alan Joyce a letter in which he posed a range of questions: “First, being on school holiday, Jacquot wonders what he should be doing as CEO, given he has “more time to work with.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Second, Jacquot is looking for a few tips on starting an airline, stating, “I’d be very grateful to know what you have to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And third, Jacquot is curious about the Sydney/Melbourne to London flight on the new A350 airplane, and is “having a lot of trouble thinking about sleep.” He wishes for advice from Joyce on what to do for the passengers over the gruelling 25-hour flight.”\r\nRemarkably, Alan Joyce not only took the time to respond but also requested Alex to join him for a strategy session.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Here’s how the letter opened: Thank you for letting me know about your new airline. I had heard some rumours of another entrant in the market, so I appreciate you taking the time to write. First, I should say that I’m not typically in the business of giving advice to my competitors. Your newly-appointed Head of Legal might have something to say about that, too. But I’m going to make an exception on this occasion because I too was once a young boy who was so curious about flight and all its possibilities.”…\r\nJoyce then invited Jacquot to Qantas headquarters for “a Project Sunrise meeting between myself, as the CEO of Australia’s oldest airline, and you, as the CEO of Australia’s newest airline.”\r\nNo word yet on how that meeting between CEOs turned out, but at the very root of this story is Joyce’s touching example of compassion. It’s also a clear-cut example of love-based leadership, something I’m going to be discussing in this column more and more over the coming weeks and months.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Qantas Airways CEO Delivered a Masterclass in Leadership', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1198-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '2019-11-11 11:36:10', '', 1198, 'https://marcellus.in/1198-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2333, 1, '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '<em>Most of us in urban India often find it frustratingly amusing that how our kids can patiently respond in English to our endless questions intentionally thrown in the vernacular. In this beautiful piece in the Guardian, Adaobi narrates his experience of English versus the mother tongue in Nigeria, an experience that most Indians will be able to relate to, given similarities around colonial history and the heterogeneity of local dialects.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“..my parents had chosen to speak only English to their children. Guests in our home adjusted to the fact that we were an English-speaking household, with varying degrees of success. Our helps were also encouraged to speak English. Many arrived from their remote villages unable to utter a single word of the foreign tongue, but as the weeks rolled by, they soon began to string complete sentences together with less contortion of their faces. My parents also spoke to each other in English – never mind that they had grown up speaking Igbo with their families. On the rare occasion my father and mother spoke Igbo to each other, it was a clear sign that they were conducting a conversation in which the children were not supposed to participate.\r\nAdaobi brings out the Singapore experience of adopting English as a critical tool towards becoming a developed economy under Lee Kuan Yew. “…he believed the future of his country’s children depended on their command of the language of the latest textbooks, which would undoubtedly be English.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“With English, no race would have an advantage,” he wrote. “English as our working language has … given us a competitive advantage because it is the international language of business and diplomacy, of science and technology. Without it, we would not have many of the world’s multinationals and over 200 of the world’s top banks in Singapore. Nor would our people have taken so readily to computers and the internet.” Within a few decades of independence from Britain in 1965, Singapore had risen from poverty and disorder to become an economic powerhouse. The country’s transformation under Lee’s guidance is often described as dramatic.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Speaking English was just one way of showing off, especially when one lived, like my parents, in what was then a small, little-known town. Some of my parents’ contemporaries distinguished themselves by appending their academic qualifications to their names. Apart from academics and medical doctors, it was common to hear people describe themselves as Architect Peter or Engineer Paul or Pharmacist Okoro.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africans are no longer helplessly watching outsiders tell our own stories, as we did in past decades, but foreigners still retain the veto over the stories we tell. Publishers in Britain and America decide which of our narratives to present to the world. Then their judges decide which of us to award accolades – and subsequent fame. The literary audiences in our various countries usually watch and wait until the west crowns a new writer, then begin applauding that person. Local writers without some western seal of approval are automatically regarded by their compatriots as inferior.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps Ngũgĩ and some other African writers care little about westerners being able to read their works. It could be that Nobel prizes and sales figures mean absolutely nothing to them. Maybe they are quite content with a local audience – but the local audiences themselves may not be able to read the authors’ books written in Gikuyu or Igbo or Chi.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Africa currently has the world’s lowest literacy rates. <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=044d00fcbe&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">U</a><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1996e285c4&amp;e=5648501957\" data-link-name=\"in body link\">nesco reports</a> that more than 1 in 3 adults in sub-Saharan Africa are unable to read and write, as are 47 million young people (ages 15-24). The region accounts for almost half of the 64 million primary school-aged children in the world who are not in school. Not even the English are born with the ability to read their language. They are taught – usually in schools.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>That said, having one language to dominate others must have reduced conflict. If, for example, we decided to dump English and use a mother tongue as the language of instruction in local schools, which of the at least 300 tongues in Nigeria or the 70 in Kenya or the 120 in Tanzania (and so on) would those countries use to teach their children? This would be more difficult than ever today, when many African societies are becoming urbanised, with different ethnic groups converging in the same locality. Which language should schools select and which should they abandon? How many fresh accusations of marginalisation would arise from this process?</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', '‘We spoke English to set ourselves apart’: how I rediscovered my mother tongue', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1194-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '2019-11-11 11:37:48', '', 1194, 'https://marcellus.in/1194-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2334, 1, '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '<em>This story profiles Charlie Santore, a 48-year-old safecracker licensed in the city of Los Angeles. Charlie operates under the name Santore &amp; Son and he goes about his business in a 1997 Mercedes so overloaded with safecracking equipment that its trunk nearly scrapes the ground. The author says:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“I spent more than six months shadowing Santore because I wanted to know what the city looks like through the eyes of a safecracker, a person for whom no vault is an actual barrier and no safe is truly secure. There are a lot of safecrackers, I learned, but the good ones, like Santore, live in a state of magical realism, suspended somewhere between technology and superstition. The safecracker sees what everyone else has been hiding—the stashed cash and jewels, the embarrassing photographs. He is a kind of human X-ray revealing the true, naked secrets of a city.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A good safe technician can pass through sealed bank vaults and open jammed strongboxes after just a few minutes of casual manipulation, using skills that often look more like sleight of hand. But just when I started to think that it was all art, pure finesse, I’d see feats of sheer industrial brutality, watching Santore bore through several inches of heavy metal at a time, aerosolized steel filing past his face like smoke.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Unlike many Indian promoters, Charlie has already got his succession planning in place: “The son in Santore &amp; Son is Charlie’s kid Louis, 13, who appears now and then on the Instagram feed. Louis Santore is being groomed…to take over the family business.”\r\nDemand for Charlie’s services is so high that he rarely gets a spare minute: “As Santore completes one job, another will arise in the form of frantic phone calls—a jewelry business locked out of its vault, a suburban father whose gun safe no longer operates, an investor flipping houses who discovers a locked safe in the floor of her newest conquest. He even keeps a bulletproof vest in his car trunk for when he’s called out to open an ATM, in case he gets held up for the cash inside.”\r\nWhat makes Charlie’s career even more interesting is that supply is limited in his industry: “An invaluable resource for the field is a members-only online forum hosted by the National Safecrackers’ Organization. The forum is small, with slightly more than 200 active members, but it is very busy, buzzing most of the day with posts…”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Meet the safecracker of last resort', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1192-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '2019-11-11 11:41:08', '', 1192, 'https://marcellus.in/1192-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2335, 1, '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '<em>This perceptive piece from Wolfgang Munchau underscores just how powerful China has become relative to almost every other country in the world barring the United States. Chinese power is not so much about raw economic growth as it is about China’s growing technological prowess. Munchau writes that “Last week, a German business magazine reported that a senior official of Angela Merkel’s chancellery had visited China to explore an anti-spying agreement. Such agreements are usually not worth the paper they are written on. The context of this visit was the bid by Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker, for the fifth generation mobile licences in Germany (on which a decision is due at some point this month). A no-spying agreement would allow Germany to pretend that China does not constitute a security threat after all…Germany is ambivalent about China. It needs Chinese technology, such as Huawei’s. German mobile phone operators are particularly keen on Huawei’s 5G bid because they already use the Chinese company’s hardware in their networks”\r\nEven as Germany is keen to maintain access to Chinese products, it is passing legislation to limit China’s ability to acquire German companies: “But Germany also worries about Chinese companies acquiring its technology. Last December, a new law reduced the threshold of equity stakes that automatically trigger a mergers investigation. The new industrial strategy, recently proposed by Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, wants to protect entire sectors from Chinese acquisitions — aircraft, finance, telecommunication, trains, energy and robotics…Germany once saw China as an export market for machinery with which China would develop its industrial base. Today, China is becoming the senior partner in the relationship.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In contrast to this, we in India have few, if any, safeguards to protect ourselves from the growing technological might of the Chinese. Most of our electronics – including the core of our telecom networks – come from China. Moreover, Alibaba is now an omnipresent investor in the Indian tech services sector. As we spend our mornings reading the PM’s latest pronouncements regarding Pakistan, one cannot but help wonder whether we are still fighting last century’s war. The real threat is more muscular, more technologically advanced, better equipped and financially mightier than Pakistan.</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5178a1a404&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved</em>', 'China gains the upper hand over Germany', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1216-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '2019-11-11 11:43:04', '', 1216, 'https://marcellus.in/1216-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2336, 1, '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '<em>This piece was written before Trump grounded the 737 Max’s in America but most other countries had. Still, John Gapper’s arguments in favour of automation in aviation or ‘fly-by-wire” as it is called, make a lot of sense. His key argument rests on the overwhelming data that most aerial accidents have been attributed to pilot error. Indeed, he shows that fatal accidents have reduced from 11 in a million to 0.1 in the last six decades, thanks to technology. Whilst French investigators are checking out the blackboxes to ascertain the cause of the Ethiopian airlines crash, Gapper reckons the error could be similar to that of the Lion Air crash in Indonesia last October, where the system overrode the pilot causing the crash but the override was triggered by a faulty sensor. He goes on to point out that such very overrides have indeed prevented several potential crashes in the past. Ironically, the advent of technology has only reduced the alertness and skills of pilots (90% of flying time in America is on autopilot). Fearing a backlash on technology, he instead recommends improving on sensors and software fixes and pilot training than otherwise.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“….flying is far less dangerous than it was decades ago — the 11 fatal accidents per million flights in 1960 fell to around 0.1 in 2017, with only six fatal crashes and 19 deaths. The main contributor to this advance is technology, especially fly-by-wire software that responds to the pilots’ touch on the controls by adjusting the thrust, flaps and other surfaces to produce the desired outcome. This includes “flight envelope protection”, which means that if a pilot tries to turn the jet too sharply, or push up the nose and risk a catastrophic stall, the software can disobey in some modes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As fly-by-wire aircraft have superseded earlier generations of autopilot, the number of crashes caused by pilot error (which is responsible for more than half of accidents) has fallen. Nearly half the commercial aircraft in service are now fourth generation jets, which have reduced “loss of control in flight” crashes such as the Lion Air case by 75 per cent, according to Airbus.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Technology has its drawbacks — the spread of fly-by-wire and use of autopilot means that some of the biggest dangers lie on the border between human and computer control. Pilots usually switch on autopilot shortly after take-off and do not fly manually until landing (the FAA estimates that autopilot is used for 90 per cent of flying time), which limits their experience.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The best known recent case of pilots being unable to cope without technology was the Air France flight 447 crash of an Airbus 330 over the Atlantic in 2009. Its autopilot disengaged in a storm because airspeed sensors were blocked and an inexperienced co-pilot put it into too steep a climb. While the control system warned loudly of the danger, it stalled and fell out of the sky.  The 737 Max 8 may have suffered the opposite problem — the pilots were flying both jets manually but part of the flight software is designed to override the aircraft’s tendency to pitch its nose up when climbing and turning. In the Lion Air case, a faulty sensor reading could have made the computers respond as if it was breaching its flight envelope, although it was not.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The 737 Max 8 crashes will turn out to have been avoidable if its software contributed to losses of control. But Boeing need not redesign its aircraft entirely, and curbing the involvement of computers in flight systems more generally makes little sense. The moral is that pilots should be sufficiently trained and practised to fly manually if required.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Given the choice of flying on an aircraft with pilots who are wholly in charge of the trip, or one on which software is able to countermand them if it senses an error, I would pick the latter. The 737 Max 8 accidents, tragic though they are, do not alter that.”</em>', 'Do not fear flying on the Boeing 737 Max', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1214-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '2019-11-11 11:44:17', '', 1214, 'https://marcellus.in/1214-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2337, 1, '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '<em>With wireless internet becoming ubiquitous, most of us are oblivious to the fact that much of the data criss-crossing the internet travels through cables, mostly under-sea. And it isn’t just internet or telecom service providers, big tech including the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc are laying their own undersea cables to get proprietary infrastructure to move data – it is indeed the new oil. Some fascinating data points in the NY Times piece by Adam Satariano about what goes into laying these cables. Eg, it takes four weeks to load a ship with the cable to be laid out in the sea,  cables connecting the continents now run up to as much as three fourths of a million miles, etc</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not,” said Jayne Stowell, who oversees construction of Google’s undersea cable projects. “It’s in the ocean.” Getting it there is an exacting and time-intensive process. A 456-foot ship named Durable will eventually deliver the cable to sea. But first, the cable is assembled inside a sprawling factory a few hundred yards away, in Newington, N.H. The factory, owned by the company SubCom, is filled with specialized machinery used to maintain tension in the wire and encase it in protective skin.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The cables begin as a cluster of strands of tiny threads of glass fibers. Lasers propel data down the threads at nearly the speed of light, using fiber-optic technology. After reaching land and connecting with an existing network, the data needed to read an email or open a web page makes its way onto a person’s device.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the manufacturing process, the cables move through high-speed mills the size of jet engines, wrapping the wire in a copper casing that carries electricity across the line to keep the data moving. Depending on where the cable will be located, plastic, steel and tar are added later to help it withstand unpredictable ocean environments. When finished, the cables will end up the size of a thick garden hose.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A year of planning goes into charting a cable route that avoids underwater hazards, but the cables still have to withstand heavy currents, rock slides, earthquakes and interference from fishing trawlers. Each cable is expected to last up to 25 years. A conveyor that staff members call “the Cable Highway” moves the cable directly into Durable, docked in the Piscataqua River. The ship will carry over 4,000 miles of cable weighing about 3,500 metric tons when fully loaded. Inside the ship, workers spool the cable into cavernous tanks. One person walks the cable swiftly in a circle, as if laying out a massive garden hose, while others lie down to hold it in place to ensure it doesn’t snag or knot. Even with teams working around the clock, it takes about four weeks before the ship is loaded up with enough cable to hit the open sea.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Poor weather is inevitable. Swells reach up to 20 feet, occasionally requiring the ship captain to order the subsea cable to be cut so the ship can seek safer waters. When conditions improve, the ship returns, retrieving the cut cable that has been left attached to a floating buoy, then splicing it back together before continuing. Work on board is slow and plodding. The ship, at sea for months at a time, moves about six miles per hour, as the cables are pulled from the giant basins out through openings at the back of the ship. Closer to shore, where there’s more risk of damage, an underwater plow is used to bury the cable in the sea floor.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The Durable crew doesn’t expect the work to slow down anytime soon. After the Latin America project, Google plans to build a new cable running from Virginia to France, set to be done by 2020. The company has 13 data centers open around the world, with eight more under construction — all needed to power the trillions of Google searches made each year and the more than 400 hours of video uploaded to YouTube each minute.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It really is management of a very complex multidimensional chess board,” said Ms. Stowell of Google, who wears an undersea cable as a necklace. Demand for undersea cables will only grow as more businesses rely on cloud computing services. And technology expected around the corner, like more powerful artificial intelligence and driverless cars, will all require fast data speeds as well. Areas that didn’t have internet are now getting access, with the United Nations reporting that for the first time more than half the global population is now online. “This is a huge part of the infrastructure that’s making that happen,” said Debbie Brask, the vice president at SubCom, who is managing the Google project. “All of that data is going in the undersea cables.”</em>', 'People think that data is in the cloud, but it’s not. It’s in the ocean', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1210-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '2019-11-11 11:46:46', '', 1210, 'https://marcellus.in/1210-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2338, 1, '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '<em>In the wake of last week’s American college admissions scandal (which ironically was brought to light thanks to a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=75c9929b9e&amp;e=5648501957\">securities fraud accused</a>), this 2005 New Yorker piece by Malcolm Gladwell highlights the farcical nature of elite school admissions that most parents get drawn into. Gladwell at his investigative best, shows how Harvard (and later Yale and Princeton) changed its admissions process in the 1920’s, first to stop the growing proportion of Jews who would dominate any academic criteria to now when it is akin to a ‘luxury-brand-management business’ i.e, meeting more of a social need than an economic one (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4a0638916c&amp;e=5648501957\">here</a> Mr Housel concurs)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The admissions office at Harvard became much more interested in the details of an applicant’s personal life. Lowell told his admissions officers to elicit information about the “character” of candidates from “persons who know the applicants well,” and so the letter of reference became mandatory. Harvard started asking applicants to provide a photograph. Candidates had to write personal essays, demonstrating their aptitude for leadership, and list their extracurricular activities. “Starting in the fall of 1922,” Karabel writes, “applicants were required to answer questions on ‘Race and Color,’ ‘Religious Preference,’ ‘Maiden Name of Mother,’ ‘Birthplace of Father,’ and ‘What change, if any, has been made since birth in your own name or that of your father? (Explain fully).’ ”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….Social scientists distinguish between what are known as treatment effects and selection effects. The Marine Corps, for instance, is largely a treatment-effect institution. It doesn’t have an enormous admissions office grading applicants along four separate dimensions of toughness and intelligence. It’s confident that the experience of undergoing Marine Corps basic training will turn you into a formidable soldier. A modelling agency, by contrast, is a selection-effect institution. You don’t become beautiful by signing up with an agency. You get signed up by an agency because you’re beautiful…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…At the heart of the American obsession with the Ivy League is the belief that schools like Harvard provide the social and intellectual equivalent of Marine Corps basic training—that being taught by all those brilliant professors and meeting all those other motivated students and getting a degree with that powerful name on it will confer advantages that no local state university can provide. Fuelling the treatment-effect idea are studies showing that if you take two students with the same S.A.T. scores and grades, one of whom goes to a school like Harvard and one of whom goes to a less selective college, the Ivy Leaguer will make far more money ten or twenty years down the road.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…. For most students, though, the general rule seems to be that if you are a hardworking and intelligent person you’ll end up doing well regardless of where you went to school. You’ll make good contacts at Penn. But Penn State is big enough and diverse enough that you can make good contacts there, too. Having Penn on your résumé opens doors. But if you were good enough to get into Penn you’re good enough that those doors will open for you anyway. “I can see why families are really concerned about this,” Krueger went on. “The average graduate from a top school is making nearly a hundred and twenty thousand dollars a year, the average graduate from a moderately selective school is making ninety thousand dollars. That’s an enormous difference, and I can see why parents would fight to get their kids into the better school. But I think they are just assigning to the school a lot of what the student is bringing with him to the school.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The endless battle over admissions in the United States proceeds on the assumption that some great moral principle is at stake in the matter of whom schools like Harvard choose to let in—that those who are denied admission by the whims of the admissions office have somehow been harmed. If you are sick and a hospital shuts its doors to you, you are harmed. But a selective school is not a hospital, and those it turns away are not sick. Élite schools, like any luxury brand, are an aesthetic experience—an exquisitely constructed fantasy of what it means to belong to an élite —and they have always been mindful of what must be done to maintain that experience.</em>', 'Getting In – The social logic of Ivy League admissions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1207-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '2019-11-11 11:48:45', '', 1207, 'https://marcellus.in/1207-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2339, 1, '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '<em>Parents are now spending serious time and effort get their kids’ images online from the time they are toddlers. Even before they can start walking, these kids become infant “style hackers” – basically, paid models for clothing companies – as their parents post their photos on Instagram and other social media sites. Some parents have even quit their jobs to do this full time:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Many of these posts are sponsored by retailers, such as the Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s natural-baby-product brand, or eBay. Wixom said that these companies accurately represent her Los Angeles–based family’s values—which means you won’t see @ministylehacker promoting CBD oils, diet pills, or anything Collette thinks her kids would be embarrassed by when they grow up. When Collette started @ministylehacker, she was working in yearbook sales. Now she makes her living by working with an agent, brokering partnership deals (Wixom declined to share her fees for sponsored posts), and packaging her family’s life for Instagram and YouTube.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clothes is just the tip of iceberg. These children are also used to promote toys, foods and even kitchen appliances. Instagram has been particularly influential in bringing to the fore this new form of advertising:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Since the early days of mommy blogging, kids’ everyday lives—and the merchandise associated with them—have been common internet fodder. As the popular platform for documenting one’s life shifted from textual blogs to the more visual medium of Instagram, it became easier to make money through simply sharing a picture of a child and a product rather than presenting a narrative around parenting itself, Crystal Abidin, a digital anthropologist at Australia’s Deakin University, told me.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Though a photo might appear simpler to create than a long narrative blog post, complex preparations go into packaging a kid’s life for Instagram. “When the money came into play, the visual aesthetic, the vocabulary, and the processes of capturing parenthood on social media greatly changed,” Abidin said. “With the rise of the influencer industry en masse, instead of the stories of children going through the process of trying out the products with their moms, they have been reduced to props.””\r\nThere is big money being made by some of the parents but as you can imagine this sort of commercialising of your children’s lives might not end well. In fact, the rise of this phenomenon itself is an interesting commentary on how many of us struggle to understand the ethics underpinning what we do in life:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The ease with which fun with kids can easily become work leads many Instagram parents to draw careful boundaries. Foos told me that she took a step back from social media after she woke Vada up one day before school to take a picture. “That just didn’t feel right,” she said. Foos and Vada took a couple of two-week posting hiatuses at the start of the year to reset. Dedukaj said she once canceled one of Laerta’s appearances because she thought she was putting too much pressure on her daughter.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As these kidfluencers age—and age out of their parents’ vision of their life—what will become of their platform? Princeton Cannon, a 10-year-old from Atlanta, is aware of the work involved in making his Instagram pop: the photo shoots, the exclusive events, the outfit selection. (Princeton receives thousands of dollars’ worth of clothing to model on his feed.) “He says, ‘Do you think my fans would like this?’” Keira Cannon, Princeton’s mother, told me.”</em>', 'How Parents of Child Influencers Package Their Kids’ Lives for Instagram', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1205-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '2019-11-11 11:50:16', '', 1205, 'https://marcellus.in/1205-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2340, 1, '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '<em>With Uber deciding to sell Uber Eats India to Swiggy for a stake in the latter, the food delivery space in India is consolidating with Swiggy, Zomato (owned by the publicly listed company, Info Edge) and Food Panda (owned by Ola). But this piece in the WIRED is about the fascinating data science behind the food delivery business and the disruptions it is likely to cause to the much larger restaurants business.\r\n“The more detail with which we can model the physical world, the more accurate we can be,” says Eric Gu, an engineering manager with Uber Eats’ data team. The company employs meteorologists to help predict the effect of rain or snow on orders and delivery times. To refine its predictions, it also tracks when drivers are sitting or standing still, driving, or walking—joining the growing ranks of employers monitoring their workers’ every move. Improved accuracy can convert directly into dollars, for example by helping Uber combine orders so that drivers carry multiple meals without any getting cold. Drivers get a small bonus for ferrying multiple orders on one trip. “We can save on delivery costs and pass back some savings to the eater,” Gu says. Four blocks away, Uber rival DoorDash has its own team of data mavens working on an AI-powered crystal ball for food deliveries. One of their findings is that sunset matters. People tend to order dinner when it’s dusk, meaning they eat later in summer and shift their habits when the clocks change in spring and fall. Like Uber, the company keeps a close eye on sports schedules and weather patterns, while also tracking prep times for the dishes offered at different restaurants. Company data indicates that pad thai takes 2 minutes longer to prepare Friday through Sunday than during the rest of the week, because kitchens are busier.\r\nRajat Shroff, vice president of product, says DoorDash data also clearly shows the connection between accurate delivery predictions and customer loyalty. “That’s driving a big chunk of our growth,” he says. The company was valued at $7 billion this month by investors who plowed in $400 million of fresh funding. DoorDash has also been working to better understand what happens in restaurants, for example by connecting its systems with Chipotle’s in-house software so orders can be sent in more smoothly, and DoorDash can track how they’re progressing. The company has built a food-delivery simulator in which past data is replayed to test different scheduling and prediction algorithms. Both DoorDash and Uber use their data to offer drivers more money to head to areas where demand is expected to be strong…. “I’ve spent my whole career trying to figure out how to put the best product in front of people,” Hargrave says. “Now I’ve been thrown this curveball where I have to put it in a box.” Tacolicious switched its register system to better handle delivery orders without compromising in-store service. There’s now often a person in each restaurant working exclusively on packaging and checking delivery orders.\r\nMuller and Hargrave say the app-and-algorithm approach to dining can squeeze conventional restaurants and could even put some out of business. Uber’s standard cut of each order is 30 percent, a significant bite in a traditionally low-margin industry. Even restaurants like Tacolicious that accommodate delivery services must also serve people who walk in the door. That’s one reason Uber is encouraging the development of “virtual restaurants,” which operate out of an existing restaurant’s kitchen but sell only via its app. Uber said last year that it was working with more than 800 virtual restaurants in the US; many operate during hours when a restaurant’s main business is slack or closed, allowing more efficient operation and use of the property. Uber and DoorDash also work with so-called dark kitchens, operations that serve only via delivery apps and can be more efficient and predictable than conventional restaurants. DoorDash operates a 2,000-square-foot kitchen space in the Bay Area that it rents to such operators.\r\nMuller likens the arrival of Uber Eats and others to how online travel sites shook up the hotel industry, forcing hoteliers to adapt their business models to a market where consumers are more engaged, driving more visits, but at lower prices. How lucrative this new form of restaurant business will be is unclear.\r\nUber and DoorDash both declined to provide more detail about their businesses but are rapidly expanding their reach. DoorDash says it covers 80 percent of the US population, and Uber Eats claims to have reached more than 70 percent, in addition to serving more than 100 cities in Africa, Asia, and Europe. Sallenave, the Uber Eats head for the US and Canada, predicts eating via app will become the norm everywhere, not just in urban areas. “We fundamentally believe we can make this business economically viable, not only in large cities but also in small towns and in the suburbs,” she says.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=93bd76a6ca&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How data helps deliver your dinner on time—and warm', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1226-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '2019-11-11 11:51:59', '', 1226, 'https://marcellus.in/1226-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2341, 1, '2019-11-11 12:06:43', '2019-11-11 12:06:43', '<em>A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”\r\n(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. “…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>', 'Why living experimentally beats taking bets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1224-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:06:43', '2019-11-11 12:06:43', '', 1224, 'https://marcellus.in/1224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2342, 1, '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '<em>A year ago, former Poker world champion, Annie Duke, published a superb book where she warned against the dangers of “resulting” – our habit of seeing the world on the basis of results rather than assessing the underlying process (and the probabilities embedded in the process). For example, if I drive drunk from one end of Mumbai to another and reach my destination safely, it does not mean that driving drunk is a good idea or advisable. It just means that I am lucky. Duke went on to say in the book that we should think of our steps and strategies in life in terms of probabilities and in terms of bets.\r\nIn this piece, Tim Harford highlights two issues with Duke’s mode of thinking:\r\n(1)    “One quibble is that games have a much more tightly defined spectrum than reality does. Edward Thorpe, a mathematician who achieved considerable success at blackjack and as a hedge fund manager, found that the true risks he faced at the casino were not an unlucky turn of the card but crooked dealers and poisoned coffee. Not for nothing does Nassim Taleb, author of the “Black Swan” warn of the “ludic fallacy” – treating the unknown risks of life as though they were known risks of a game of chance.”\r\n(2)    “Some big decisions are by their nature irreversible Each big poker hand is a one-shot proposition that does not offer much scope for experimentation. The same could be said of some investments….”\r\nHarford says that a better way to live in an uncertain world is to use experiments wherein you gradually, gingerly walk across the stream – a step at a time – by gingerly feeling the pebbles underneath your feet. “…other decisions are more experimental. In these cases the choices can be made in stages, with each step designed to reveal some information. From Marvel’s decision to publish the Spiderman comics (that went well) to Google’s launch of the G+ social network (that didn’t) a company can see what works and then either redouble its efforts or abandon the project. For an individual, anything from a new hobby to a career can be treated as an experiment.”</em>', 'Why living experimentally beats taking bets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1224-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '2019-11-11 12:09:13', '', 1224, 'https://marcellus.in/1224-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2343, 1, '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '<em>Morgan Housel may not come up with radically original thinking in everything he writes but he does have a special skill in making lateral connections and  bringing out the profundity in seemingly prosaic concepts. A timely piece – when there are so many moving parts in the world, when sources of distraction are aplenty, knowing to differentiate between the signal and noise becomes the only source of differentiation in our profession. Actually, more than just knowing, mustering the courage to act on your belief when everyone else around you says otherwise, is indeed the hardest thing in our profession. And because it is so hard, it becomes the most critical success factor. Morgan highlights the point that IQ or intelligence do not matter beyond a point as lucrativeness of the profession attracts enough smart people to it for it become an edge.\r\n“Jiddu Krishnamurti was an Indian philosopher. His message became more candid as he aged. In one famous moment during a talk, he asked the audience if they wanted to know his secret. He leaned forward, and whispered: “You see, I don’t mind what happens.”\r\nThis is a unique and powerful skill if you can actually do it. Almost 600 people ace the SATs each year. Another 7,000 come within a handful of points. There are a lot of smart people. And they’re getting smarter. Average IQ scores have risen 10 points per generation for decades. A field as competitive as investing can only repeatedly reward skills that are truly unique. And any skill that others can be taught is not unique, because this industry is so lucrative that thousands of people will move mountains to learn it. The extreme tails of intelligence are rewarded. But merely high intelligence rarely is because there are many so smart people chasing the same thing – outperformance – with intelligence learned from the same schools and firms. Smart is not a unique skill. That’s why so many smart people don’t outperform.\r\nWhat is unique?\r\nOne of the most unique and valuable skills in this industry is Jiddu’s secret: not minding what happens. Not in a flippant way. You have to care about eventual outcomes, the people you work with, etc. But if you can remain dispassionate about what people think of you while you’re trying to get that outcome, or about the noise around you during the process, you have an advantage that I doubt one in a hundred thousand has in this industry. There are two drivers of enduring investment performance: Doing something others don’t. Doing something others do but during a time they don’t want to. Every investor done well over a long period of time can put their success into one or both of those buckets. And both require some degree of not caring what happens.\r\nA few things that help you get there.\r\n<strong>1. Not caring about looking dumb when you’re confident others are being dumber.</strong> Peter Kaufman once told a story of a conversation he had with Warren Buffett. Kaufman told Buffett he had a theory about why he was the greatest investor in the world. It was 1999. “During the bubble, everybody said you’re an idiot, behind the times. You’ve lost it, you don’t understand technology.” Kaufman said…..\r\n<strong>2. Not caring about having an imperfect portfolio.</strong>\r\nSome problems can never be solved because the world they live in is always adapting and changing. Portfolio construction is one of them. Incredible amounts of effort are devoted to finding the optimal level of diversification and position sizing. There are critical elements to both. But some level of “good enough” can be ideal for most people. The factors that determine future returns are still out of your control no matter how many spreadsheet tabs your model uses, and when you let go of caring about having a perfect portfolio you have fewer knobs to fiddle with, which reduces the chances of regrettable decisions. A rule of thumb is to prefer the strategy that’s likely to get you closest to your goal with the fewest number of decisions needed along the way.\r\n<strong>3. Not caring about the reputational hit that comes from changing your mind.</strong> If you’re right about one thing, people will pay attention to you. You’ll become an expert in that one thing, asked to make predictions about what it will do next. Then, if you change your mind about that thing, a wave of people who gave you attention because they wanted to believe in the thing will flee and discount your wisdom, since they can no longer use you to confirm their views. Not caring about that demotion is a gift. There are things that never change, but underneath them are trends, industries, companies, countries, and strategies that come and go. The ability to let go of past beliefs when they’re no longer valid, or you realize you were wrong to begin with, is indispensable in this field. The only thing more dangerous than a view that changes on a dime is a view that hasn’t changed in decades.\r\n<strong>4. Not caring about not having no explanation for the majority of events.</strong> There’s two types of “I don’t know.” One is, “I don’t know, but I’m trying to figure it out.” The other is, “I don’t know and don’t care because it doesn’t matter to what I’m doing.”\r\nThe latter one is underrated and more important, because it forces you to acknowledge factors that do, and don’t, make a difference to your strategy. The thing about statements like “Stocks fell amid news of slower economic growth” is not just that we don’t know whether it’s correlation or causation. It’s that even if we did know it’s causation it may not matter. Would you do anything different if you knew exactly why stocks fell today? Would it change your strategy? Maybe not. Probably not. Hopefully not. A lot of events fit this category. Einstein’s alleged quip of “Not everything that can be counted counts” holds true for maybe 98% of what happens in financial markets. And if you can put that idea to use you free up time to focus on the 2% that does count. Figure out what you can control and obsess over it. Identify what doesn’t matter and ignore it. Determine what you’re incapable of and stay away from it.”</em>', 'Not Caring – A Unique and Powerful Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1220-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '2019-11-11 12:12:04', '', 1220, 'https://marcellus.in/1220-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2344, 1, '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '<em>Microbiomes are the trillions of microbes inside the healthy human body. This arresting New York Times article says that “Research continues to turn up remarkable links between the microbiome and the brain. Scientists are finding evidence that microbiome may play a role not just in Alzheimer’s disease, but Parkinson’s disease, depression, schizophrenia, autism and other conditions…\r\nScientists have long known that microbes live inside us. In 1683, the Dutch scientist Antonie van Leeuwenhoek put plaque from his teeth under a microscope and discovered tiny creatures swimming about. But the microbiome has stubbornly resisted scientific discovery…In the early 2000s, however, the science of the microbiome took a sudden leap forward when researchers figured out how to sequence DNA from these microbes…Few of them gave much thought to the brain — there didn’t seem to be much point. The brain is shielded from microbial invasion by the so-called blood-brain barrier. Normally, only small molecules pass through.\r\n“As recently as 2011, it was considered crazy to look for associations between the microbiome and behavior,” said Rob Knight, a microbiologist at the University of California, San Diego.\r\nHe and his colleagues discovered some of the earliest hints of these links. Investigators took stool from mice with a genetic mutation that caused them to eat a lot and put on weight. They transferred the stool to mice that had been raised germ-free — that is, entirely without gut microbiomes — since birth.\r\nAfter receiving this so-called fecal transplant, the germ-free mice got hungry, too, and put on weight.\r\nAltering appetite isn’t the only thing that the microbiome can do to the brain, it turns out. Dr. Cryan and his colleagues, for example, have found that mice without microbiomes become loners, preferring to stay away from fellow rodents.\r\nThe scientists eventually discovered changes in the brains of these antisocial mice. One region, called the amygdala, is important for processing social emotions. In germ-free mice, the neurons in the amygdala make unusual sets of proteins, changing the connections they make with other cells.”\r\nIn fact, the link between microbiomes and the human brain is being seen in the most remarkable of human beings. “ Children with autism have unusual patterns of microbial species in their stool. Differences in the gut bacteria of people with a host of other brain-based conditions also have been reported.. If you hold a mouse by its tail, it normally wriggles in an effort to escape. If you give it a fecal transplant from humans with major depression, you get a completely different result: The mice give up sooner, simply hanging motionless.”</em>', 'Germs in Your Gut Are Talking to Your Brain. Scientists Want to Know What They’re Saying', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1218-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '2019-11-11 12:13:28', '', 1218, 'https://marcellus.in/1218-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2345, 1, '2019-11-11 12:14:42', '2019-11-11 12:14:42', 'Vrinda Shukla in her beautiful and eye-opening article questions the definition of backwardness. Vrinda shares her experience of visiting one of the remotest parts of India – ‘Mon’, a picturesque district of Nagaland, running along the Myanmar border and considered to be one of the most backward districts in the country. Residents of Mon celebrated “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks, in the most eco-friendly way possible with not a speck of plastic being used and Vrinda wonders whether it is Mon which is a backward place or the big global cities which generates tons of plastic wastes each second.\r\n<em>“One of the grandest annual celebrations in Mon is the “Lao-Ong Mo”, a post-harvest festival of the Konyaks. I too was invited to express gratitude to the divine spirits for the bountiful harvest by way of praying, singing, dancing and feasting. It was a spectacular affair, attended, inter alia, by a posse of political leaders, senior government officials, heads of village councils and local unions. The feast was a gastronomical delight — tables groaning under the weight of an endless array of dishes, prepared from the freshly harvested produce. But more than the colourful cuisine, it was the unique dining experience that struck a real chord. As I walked into the dining hall, a bearer, decked in her traditional finery, handed me a beautifully woven bamboo food tray. The tray was shaped quite like a North Indian thaal/thaali, sturdy yet light to hold. It was lined with fresh green leaves. After I had finished eating, another equally charming bearer swiftly cleared away my tray. I followed my gentle helper, out of curiosity, to the room meant for disposal. I saw her upturn the tray into a large waste bin, also made of bamboo. The leaves had been lined on the trays with such skill that they fell into the bin as a neat little packet with all the waste food secured inside, without any of it soiling the tray, and without the cleaner having to touch any leftovers. The trays were being collected for sunning and reuse.</em>\r\n<em>As per the Konyak tradition, an anti-oxidant rich black tea, called “phika” is served after food. I was again thrilled to find my steaming phika cha poured into a disposable glass, carved out of bamboo stem. Such a seamlessly biodegradable pattern of food consumption was a first-of-its-kind experience. I was also one of the luckier guests, who received a gift hamper of local produce. Recently harvested millets, spices and vegetables were meticulously packed in firm packets made of palm leaf, and all the packets were tucked inside a beautiful sturdy bamboo basket. Not a speck of plastic was used in the otherwise usual guzzlers — feasting and packaging.</em>\r\n<em>Generally, public events of such scale, both in India and abroad, would generate an abominable quantity of non-biodegradable waste. Material prosperity, associated with high-end retail and luxurious lifestyles, but built on toxic and unsustainable consumption patterns, may not quite be a sign of advancement. For instance, Starbucks’ reported consumption of plastic, of which the straws alone annually contribute 2,000 tonnes of plastic to the world’s oceans, is exacerbating global menaces like the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and threatening the marine ecosystem.</em>\r\n<em>At the end of the festival, I scanned the vast ground and the massive dining hall and found not a trace of refuse. I stood there for a while, immensely satisfied to have had my stereotypes about “backwardness” take a beating, yet again. It was a powerful reminder that true advancement must encompass the good sense to clean up after ourselves and the thoughtfulness to adopt consumption patterns generating as little waste as possible.”</em>', 'How a Naga tribe is challenging cliched notions of advancement, backwardness', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1161-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:14:42', '2019-11-11 12:14:42', '', 1161, 'https://marcellus.in/1161-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2346, 1, '2019-11-11 12:15:06', '2019-11-11 12:15:06', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:15:06', '2019-11-11 12:15:06', '', 15, 'https://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2347, 1, '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\n<em>Morgan Housel uses the energy efficiency analogy to bring out the point that we have a better shot at securing our financial future by regulating our lifestyle than generating superior returns on our investments.\r\n“The biggest energy story of the last four decades has nothing to do with oil or gas. It’s not wind turbines or solar panels…It’s conservation and efficiency. We don’t need as much energy to do stuff as we used to. The United States uses 60% less energy per dollar of GDP today than it did in 1950. Globally, it’s dropped 25% since 1990. The average miles per gallon of all vehicles on the road has doubled since 1975. U.S. oil and gas production has increased 65% since 1975, while conservation and efficiency has more than doubled what we can do with that energy. Easy to see which has mattered more to energy markets…\r\n…And efficiency is largely in your control, versus the rest of the energy industry that relies on a slippery mix of having the right geology, geography, weather, and geopolitics. The decision to buy a lighter car or ride a bike is up to you and has a 100% chance of improving efficiency. But getting energy from wind only works where it’s windy; not in your control. Fracking only works where geology and regulators allow it; not in your control, and subject to change….\r\n…Things that are in your control and have the highest likelihood of working can make the biggest difference over time. It follows Jeff Bezos’s rule of <a href=\"https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/betting-on-things-that-never-change/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">betting on things that never change</a>, since you can confidently throw your weight behind them. The importance of every endeavor is its potential multiplied by the odds of it working and how long it will work for. Conservation and efficiency don’t rank high on the first part, but they’re so strong on the second two that over time their impact exceeds what’s been done in more exciting parts of the industry.\r\nInvestment returns have a lot of potential to make you rich and achieve your goals. But whether a strategy will work, and how long it will work for, and whether markets will cooperate, is always a question. Personal savings and frugality – finance’s conservation and efficiency – are parts of the money equation that are largely in your control and have a 100% chance at being as effective in the future as they are today.\r\nIf we have the same assets and I can earn an 8% annual returns, and you can earn 12% annual returns, but I need half as much money to be happy while your lifestyle compounds as fast as your assets, I’m better off than you are. I’m getting more benefit from my investments despite lower returns…\r\n….My personal investments are designed to maximize for sleeping well at night, not necessarily scouting for the highest returns. But my wife and I are so good at happily living an efficient life – you can call us cheap – that adding our lifestyle efficiency to our investment returns leaves us better off than others who may earn higher returns. Investing alpha is hard and often fleeting, but the lifestyle version is more in your control and permanent. There are those who can earn excellent returns and live an efficient life. Warren Buffett, living in the same house he bought in his 20s, is the best example. But the idea that there are two ways to improve your financial wellbeing, and one is more in your control with higher odds of success than the other, is as overlooked in finance as it has been with energy.\r\nVanguard founder Jack Bogle, who passed away last week, began his book Enough with the following paragraphs. From an investor who improved the financial wellbeing of tens of millions of people through cost efficiency, not outperformance, this is invaluable:\r\nAt a party given by a billionaire on Shelter Island, Kurt Vonnegut informs his pal, Joseph Heller, that their host, a hedge fund manager, had made more money in a single day than Heller had earned from his wildly popular novel Catch-22 over its whole history. Heller responds,“Yes, but I have something he will never have . . . enough.”\r\nEnough. I was stunned by the simple eloquence of that word—stunned for two reasons: first, because I have been given so much in my own life and, second, because Joseph Heller couldn’t have been more accurate. For a critical element of our society, including many of the wealthiest and most powerful among us, there seems to be no limit today on what enough entails …We chase the false rabbits of success; we too often bow down at the altar of the transitory and finally meaningless and fail to cherish what is beyond calculation, indeed eternal. That message, I think, is what Joseph Heller captured in that powerful single word, enough.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0cf8ea2d77&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\nCopyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>', 'The Biggest Returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1151-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '2019-11-11 12:16:11', '', 1151, 'https://marcellus.in/1151-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2348, 1, '2019-11-11 12:16:31', '2019-11-11 12:16:31', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:16:31', '2019-11-11 12:16:31', '', 15, 'https://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2349, 1, '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '<em>In our quest to become smarter, many of us have to taken to using books, apps and trainers. In this piece, Anjana Ahuja says that there is no evidence that any of this stuff is actually of any use.\r\n“Scientists, though, have long been sceptical of the brain-training industry, forecast to be worth more than $8bn by 2021. The claim is that tailored video games can sharpen cognitive skills and delay the hallmarks of senility such as memory loss. The view of the Alzheimer’s Society is that “no studies have shown that brain training prevents dementia…\r\nTil Wykes, professor of clinical psychology at King’s College London, who was not involved in the study, suggested that eight hours a month might be better spent going for a walk or to the gym. Exercise helps cognitive health, as does staying mentally engaged by, say, playing board games.\r\nHer dismissive analysis hints at the evidence deficit haunting the brain-training industry. Individual studies purporting to showcase a causal link between games and better brainpower tend to be small, short-term and of wildly varying designs, making results inconclusive or unreliable. Any benefits tend to be judged using other computer tests, rather than whether users cope better with everyday challenges (the “generalisability” problem).”</em>', 'Evidence deficit haunts billion-dollar brain trainers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1149-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '2019-11-11 12:17:38', '', 1149, 'https://marcellus.in/1149-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2350, 1, '2019-11-12 05:02:30', '2019-11-12 05:02:30', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Beyond the negative impact of our smartphones on our attention spans lie other harms. These negatives include anxiety, loneliness and a tendency to take extreme stances. Cal Newport says that by jettisoning all but the most essential digital tools for a month, not only can we learn “deep work”, we can also build more fulfilling social &amp; family lives.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><u>“Facebook is the new cigarettes…You know, it’s addictive. It’s not good for you. There’s people trying to get you to use it that even you don’t understand what’s going on. The government needs to step in. The government needs to really regulate what’s happening,”</u></em><strong> – Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce </strong>on CNBC (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b0d2f12637&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db0d2f12637%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573707202649000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGc5E0kWPyL6_cEuz1r1WmNROu6KQ\">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/salesforce-ceo-marc-benioff-facebook-is-the-new-cigarettes.html</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>The route to professional success is paved with…deep work</strong>\r\nIt is fashionable these days to highlight social media stars who are apparently minting millions. Such people - whose cooking/ cosmetic make-up/ sports/ fashion design skills are so well honed that they – are deemed to have cut free of the conventional constraints imposed by old media and conventional corporate constructs. Hence by the time they are in their early twenties, these new age stars appear to have hit the jackpot of social media success.\r\n\r\nThis narrative does not hold up to rational analysis. For every Kim Kardashian there are millions of other youngsters who are doing their thing on social media for next to no reward. For every celebrity chef on social media there a billions of others cooking grub for no return. Of course, this is no different than what happens in the conventional world – for every Virat Kohli there are millions of cricketers who never get to play for the Indian cricket team.\r\n\r\n<u>In <em>‘Deep Work’</em> (2016), Cal Newport says that the free market – on a global scale - rewards people who master hard skills (eg. the ability to write high quality prose in the English language) and then produce consistently at an elite level (eg. writing Harry Potter novels which is what JK Rowling did to rise from poverty to become a dollar billionaire).</u>\r\n\r\nNewport points out that Rowling habitually locks herself up in a hotel in downtown Edinburgh when she is working on her novels. In a similar vein, he highlights that the young Bill Gates worked non-stop for two months to produce the first version of the programming language, BASIC. During this period of frenetic programming to write the code that would ultimately form the foundation of Microsoft’s dominant operating system, Gates would fall asleep in front of his computer whilst coding. He would then wake up an hour later and continue coding (for a short video on ‘Deep Work’ watch: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=682a67e660&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D682a67e660%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573707202650000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHr43FaD3M9cOxkIx2bFgUr0oklIw\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD7dXfdDPfg</a>).\r\n\r\nIn contrast, the vast majority of the cooking, sports, politics and make-up videos on social media are easy to replicate. In fact, that is exactly what millions of teenagers around the world – including my children – are doing. That is an interesting hobby for them to have but it is unlikely to be the path they take to build their name &amp; fame.\r\n\r\nEven if you believe that there are other drivers to JK Rowling and Bill Gates’ success, it is hard to rebut Newport’s key point: deep work i.e. <em>“professional activities performed in a state of distraction-free concentration that push your cognitive capabilities to their limit” </em>creates value, improves your skills and helps you create output which is hard to replicate.\r\n\r\nEven more interestingly, as an increasing percentage of people find their attention and their cognition fragmented by digital media and, specifically, by smartphones, <em>“the ability to perform deep work is becoming increasingly rare at exactly the same time it is becoming increasingly valuable in our economy. As a consequence, the few who cultivate this skill, and then make it the core of their working life, will thrive.”</em>\r\n\r\nAlongside several others like Marc Benioff (see quote at the beginning of this note) and Kanye West, Newport believes that smartphones and social media are causing deep-seated psychological damage. Newport’s recent book, <em>‘Digital Minimalism’</em> (2019), elaborates on this point more extensively. <u>Beyond the obvious distraction caused by checking your phone 85 times a day and spending three hours of screentime per day (stats of the average phone user in the United States)</u>, Newport highlights more insidious harms caused by smartphones:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong><u>Loneliness: </u></strong>Citing research conducted by psychologist Matthew Lieberman – author of <em>‘Social: Why our brains are wired to connect’</em> (2013) – Newport says <em>“our brains adapted to automatically practice social thinking during any moments of cognitive downtime, and it’s this practice that helps us become really interested in our social world”.</em> Basically, our brains are wired to be social – to read other people’s emotions, their minds, their feelings and then to connect with them and interact with them.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Smartphones and social media are damaging our ability to cognitively connect with the world around us in two ways: (a) by reducing the time available for such interactions because of amount of the time we spend on our smartphones; and (b) reducing the need to have such interactions by persuading us that we can interact with our friends, our colleagues and our suppliers on the phone rather than actually talking to them.\r\nNewport says, ‘<em>The loss of social connection…turns out to trigger the same system as physical pain…’</em>What is the result of this? Brian Primack from the University of Pittsburgh showed in an article which appeared in July 2017 in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine that <em>“…the more someone used social media, the more likely they were to be lonely. Indeed, someone in the highest quartile of social media use was three times more likely to be lonelier than someone in the lowest quartile.”</em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Extremism: </strong>Around the world, in large and seemingly mature democracies, the political discourse seems to be becoming increasingly polarised. Americans saw this in to the run up to Trump’s election, Britons saw this in the run-up to Brexit and Indians see this whenever a General Election is around the corner. The way social media is designed, says Newport, contributes to this: <em>“….online discussions seem to accelerate people’s shift towards emotionally charged and draining extremes. The techno-philosopher Jaron Lanier convincingly argues that the primacy of anger and outrage online is, in some sense, an unavoidable feature of the medium: In an open marketplace for attention, darker emotions attract more eyeballs than positive and constructive thoughts. For heavy internet users, repeated interaction with this darkness can become a source of draining negativity – a steep price that many don’t even realize they’re paying…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Anxiety: </strong>All of us need peace and solitude to do high quality work on difficult, complex subjects. The digital world robs us of this peace and solitude, not just in our offices, not just in our homes but also when we are at the playground with our kids, when we are on holiday and when we are relaxing with friends. Newport says, <em>“Eliminating solitude also introduces new negative repercussions that we’re only now beginning to understand. A good way to investigate a behaviour’s effect is to study a population that pushes the behaviour to an extreme…these extremes are readily apparent among young people born after 1995…a 2015 study by Common Sense Media found that teenagers were consuming media….nine hours per day on average…If persistent solitude deprivation causes problems, we should see them show up here first...</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>…San Diego University psychology professor Jean Twenge…is one of the world’s foremost experts on generational differences in American youth. As Twenge notes in her September 2017 article for the Atlantic, she has been studying these trends for over twenty-five years. But starting around 2012, she noticed a shift in the measurements of teenager emotional states…Young people born between 1995 and 2012, a group Twenge calls “iGen”, exhibited remarkable differences as compared to the Millennials that preceded them…”Rates of teen depression and suicide have skyrocketed,” Twenge writes…“It’s not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental-health crisis in decades.”…”Much of this deterioration can be traced to their phones,” Twenge concludes.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs you would expect given how powerful the social media giants are, the negative commentary cited above has been countered by other psychologists who claim that the dangers of social media are being overstated. Says Jeff Hancock, a psychologist who runs the Social Media Lab at Stanford University, <em>“Using social media is essentially a trade-off…You get very small but significant advantages for your well-being that come with very small but statistically significant costs.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe website, Scientific American, summarised the results from Hancock’s research as: <em>“Hancock and his team found that more social media use was associated slightly with higher depression and anxiety (though not loneliness) and more strongly associated with relationship benefits (though not eudaemonic or hedonic well-being). (The largest effect, at 0.20, was the benefit of stronger relationships.) He and his colleagues also found that active rather than passive use was positively associated with well-being.”</em> (Source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e01ae99fdd&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De01ae99fdd%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573707202650000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfa-kjVqlY6pJaGJR43fIsWhBScQ\">https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/social-media-has-not-destroyed-a-generation/</a>)\r\n\r\nWhilst the debate on exactly how damaging social media is continues, it is difficult to argue with the point that any form of distraction when you are trying to do high quality work reduces your effectiveness. So, how can we minimise such distractions?\r\n\r\n<strong>The remedy: digital detox</strong>\r\n<u>Thanks to the success of <em>‘Deep Work’</em>, Newport’s prescriptions for creating 90 minute slots for solid, uninterrupted work (without internet or emails or colleagues disturbing you) are now well known. Newport says that you should begin by trying to do this for an hour each day and then gradually build up to four hours deep work every day. As you do so, you will develop myelin – a white tissue which develops around neurons – in the relevant areas of your brain. This allows your brain cells to fire faster and cleaner. Effectively, you are upgrading your brain and this should allow you to come up with new ideas and solutions quicker.</u>\r\n\r\nBut you can only do this if you get rid of your craving for social media, for text messaging, for constantly checking your emails and answering phone calls through the day. How can we break all these nasty habits which we have acquired from years of shallow work?\r\n\r\nNewport’s book <em>‘Digital Minimalism’</em> advocates what it says on the tin i.e. he asks you to first quit social media (watch <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=524072b2dd&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D524072b2dd%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573707202650000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEGW5qugLO1-wADVCDJrhYfGoKCAA\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E7hkPZ-HTk</a>) and then undergo a form of digital detox wherein for a month you abandon all forms of optional digital media (basically, abandon everything which is not essential for your family’s life safety &amp; wellbeing). Since most of us are totally hooked to our phones, Newport gives us a few tips on how we can get ready of our one month digital sabbatical:</p>\r\n\r\n<ol style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Build up your social life:</strong> Before you begin your digital detox, you need understand how you will fill the void left by digital media in your life. For many people compulsive phone use fills up the void created by a well-developed social &amp; family life. The itinerant life of the typical Indian professional – wherein almost every other year she moves cities – makes it even harder to build relationships in the local community. If you are such an individual – and truth be told, many of us are – you need to plan in advance which classes or community groups you will join or activities you will do with your family in the time freed up during your digital detox.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Partial phone deprivation: </strong>During weekdays, start leaving your phone behind on your desk when you go for meetings or when you go for your lunch break. On holidays, start leaving your phone at home when you go our dinner or for a movie or – better still – for a long walk in the park. As you do this you will gradually get accustomed to staying away from your phone. That in turn will make you less prone to picking up your phone and peering at it repeatedly.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Put your phone on DND: </strong>Even when you are with your phone, learn to put in on ‘Do Not Disturb’ (DND) mode so that you don’t get notifications for anything and you don’t get incoming calls. You can adjust your DND settings such that near and dear ones can reach you but no one else can. Then in specific chunks of time which you have set aside each day – ideally during your evening commute – get your phone calls done.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Scheduled digital dosing: </strong>As with your phone calls, so with your use of the internet, social media and text messaging  - have pre-scheduled time slots each day in which you access the internet and do your emailing and text messaging. For the rest of the day, stay away from the internet and from messaging. If through the day you keep responding to every message which crops up on your screen you are giving yourself no chance to do deep work which also means that you are giving yourself no chance to develop your Myelin.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Digital downtime every evening: </strong>When you are done with work for the day, try to shut down for the day completely. So no emailing, text messaging and internet surfing once you have shut shop for the day. That necessarily implies that you: (a) focus on your family and your social relationships and yourself after you have wound up work for the day; and (b) have a clear plan for how you will spend your evening. (If you don’t have a plan the chances are that you will drift back to digital media for entertainment.)</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Remove social media apps &amp; use website versions: </strong>Social media platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn have a multitude of uses and whilst some of these features have become addictive for millions of users (this seems to be particularly true for Facebook), you might not want to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Hence, one way to hold on to the best features of these platforms (eg. the ability to find like minded people, the ability to recruit the right people or find the right suppliers, etc) whilst jettisoning the worst (eg. notifications, ‘likes’) is to delete these apps from your phone and install the website versions on your desktop. You will find that the time it takes to boot up your desktop, then open your web browser and then fire up Facebook kills a big part of the impulse-driven behaviour which characterizes our use of social media.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Effectively what Newport is saying is that we need to try to build a routine for our workday wherein internet use takes place within pre-specified time slots and ditto for phone calling. By implication the rest of the schedule is freed up for deep work. In our 17<sup>th</sup> May 2019 blog on how great men &amp; women have built their working days over the past four hundred years, we described how they had created a similar daily routine albeit before the arrival of the shiny smartphones: see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1f5fde98bb&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1f5fde98bb%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1573707202650000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH_YK8bn5VtD3a-2RnSkb7bJOKj_Q\">http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</a>\r\n\r\nI have implemented bullets 2, 5 and 6. With a bit of help from my better half, I might be able to implement 1 and 5. Then I will be ready for Newport’s digital detox. When I begin my one month digital detox, Newport warns that the first two weeks will be painful and there are no tips or tricks that can mitigate that pain. But as I consciously pull back from all optional forms of digital media over the course of the month, I will find that things will settle down. Newport assures me that my friends and clients won’t abandon me. Gradually, I will find that the quantum and quality of interactions with friends &amp; family improving. I will become less stressed, less anxious and less fidgety. After a month of full digital detox, I can then add back a small number of carefully chosen online activities that I believe will provide massive benefit to me for activities or goals which you deeply value eg. posting my blogs on LinkedIn (using the website version of LinkedIn), visiting the 3 websites where I find high quality commentary on Finance, Economics and Psychology and reading my email.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nAmongst my colleagues, I can see a wide spectrum of behaviours in terms of smartphone usage. Two of my colleagues are super disciplined in terms of phone and internet use and I have seen for over a year now that these two guys have no trouble working in a focused manner for 90 minute intervals. Unsurprisingly, these two guys produce outstanding investment insights.\r\n\r\nAt the other end of the spectrum tend to be bright young interns who work for us – they belong to the iPhone generation and I can see that they struggle to read an annual report in one sitting. It takes them a few months before their minds settle down, their phones switch off and they start learning that concentrating for long periods of time is 50% of the skill required to be an analyst.\r\n\r\nAs I see the youngsters in our team grow up, I remember my teenage years when my dad used to sit next to me as I struggled with algebra &amp; calculus. He would lock the door of my room, sit himself down next to my desk and say the same thing again and again: <em>“Concentrate….concentrate…learn to concentrate”</em>. I used to hate my dad for doing this but with the benefit of hindsight I realise that his years in IIT Kharagpur had taught him the value of deep work. I needed Cal Newport in order to learn the same lesson.</p>', 'Smartphones: How They Damage You & How You Can Fight Back', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'smartphones-how-they-damage-you-how-you-can-fight-back', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:50:51', '2019-11-13 05:50:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2350', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2351, 1, '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '<em>Office goers, says this column in The Economist, can be split into two groups. The first tribe are called FOMO: people who love meeting other people and who are haunted by the fear of missing out (FOMO) lest they don’t attend a meeting, a networking event or a business trip. The second tribe are called JOMO: people who like to sit at their desk and actually do some useful work and hate attending meetings/events/conference calls outside normal business hours. They actually enjoy spending time with their family. That’s the joy of missing out (JOMO).\r\nIn a well run company you need both tribes. The FOMO people run around looking busy, attending meetings are staring at Powerpoint presentations, emailing, videoconferencing and whatsapping like mad. The JOMO people sit at their desks and get the work done.</em>', 'The two tribes of working life', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1146-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '2019-11-13 05:27:26', '', 1146, 'https://marcellus.in/1146-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2352, 1, '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '<em>A six year old article but a fascinating one nonetheless about the science that gets us addicted to junk food. Michael Moss who won the Pulitzer Prize in 2010 for his reporting on the meat industry, authored “Salt Sugar Fat: How the Food Giants Hooked Us”, a superb piece of investigative journalism, from which this article is adapted. Michael spent four years researching what was a conscious effort on part of the food industry using a combination of scientific experiments in laboratories to well thought through marketing campaigns to get people hooked on to junk food. “What follows is a series of small case studies of a handful of characters whose work then, and perspective now, sheds light on how the foods are created and sold to people who, while not powerless, are extremely vulnerable to the intensity of these companies’ industrial formulations and selling campaigns.”\r\n“As a culture, we’ve become upset by the tobacco companies advertising to children, but we sit idly by while the food companies do the very same thing. And we could make a claim that the toll taken on the public health by a poor diet rivals that taken by tobacco….\r\n…one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids, and 24 million Americans are afflicted by type 2 diabetes, often caused by poor diet, with another 79 million people having pre-diabetes. Even gout, a painful form of arthritis once known as “the rich man’s disease” for its associations with gluttony, now afflicts eight million Americans…\r\n….In the process of product optimization, food engineers alter a litany of variables with the sole intent of finding the most perfect version (or versions) of a product. Ordinary consumers are paid to spend hours sitting in rooms where they touch, feel, sip, smell, swirl and taste whatever product is in question. Their opinions are dumped into a computer, and the data are sifted and sorted through a statistical method called conjoint analysis, which determines what features will be most attractive to consumers. Moskowitz likes to imagine that his computer is divided into silos, in which each of the attributes is stacked. But it’s not simply a matter of comparing Color 23 with Color 24. In the most complicated projects, Color 23 must be combined with Syrup 11 and Packaging 6, and on and on, in seemingly infinite combinations. Even for jobs in which the only concern is taste and the variables are limited to the ingredients, endless charts and graphs will come spewing out of Moskowitz’s computer. “The mathematical model maps out the ingredients to the sensory perceptions these ingredients create,” he told me, “so I can just dial a new product. This is the engineering approach.”\r\n“There’s no moral issue for me,” he said. “I did the best science I could. I was struggling to survive and didn’t have the luxury of being a moral creature. As a researcher, I was ahead of my time.”\r\nSometimes innovations within the food industry happen in the lab, with scientists dialing in specific ingredients to achieve the greatest allure. And sometimes, as in the case of Oscar Mayer’s bologna crisis, the innovation involves putting old products in new packages. ..\r\n….The prevailing attitude among the company’s food managers — through the 1990s, at least, before obesity became a more pressing concern — was one of supply and demand. “People could point to these things and say, ‘They’ve got too much sugar, they’ve got too much salt,’ ” Bible said. “Well, that’s what the consumer wants, and we’re not putting a gun to their head to eat it. That’s what they want. If we give them less, they’ll buy less, and the competitor will get our market. So you’re sort of trapped.”\r\n….To get a better feel for their work, I called on Steven Witherly, a food scientist who wrote a fascinating guide for industry insiders titled, “Why Humans Like Junk Food.” I brought him two shopping bags filled with a variety of chips to taste. He zeroed right in on the Cheetos. “This,” Witherly said, “is one of the most marvelously constructed foods on the planet, in terms of pure pleasure.” He ticked off a dozen attributes of the Cheetos that make the brain say more. But the one he focused on most was the puff’s uncanny ability to melt in the mouth. “It’s called vanishing caloric density,” Witherly said. “If something melts down quickly, your brain thinks that there’s no calories in it . . . you can just keep eating it forever.”</em>', 'The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1142-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '2019-11-13 05:28:33', '', 1142, 'https://marcellus.in/1142-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2353, 1, '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '<em>25 years ago Samuel Huntington had taught those who read his controversial book “The Class of Civilisations and the Remaking of the World Order” that all of us are tribal people and will ultimately focus on looking after our own. All our education and our reading is merely a façade said the great intellectual (who like other great thinkers could not care less what people thought about him). Beneath the façade all of us have strong tribal instincts which extends to wanting to the downfall of other tribes.\r\nUber-successful American author, Amy Chua, expands on this point in her super piece in Foreign Affairs. She makes three distinct points:\r\na)      American politicians have for generations failed to understand this point around how tribal identity works. This failure has hobbled US foreign policy for generations. Irag, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are, according to Chua, debacles driven by American failure to understand the tribal politics of these countries. In Vietnam, for example, the Americans completely ignorant of the hatred the Vietnamese had for the Chinese who lived in Vietnam, who dominated 80% of the business interests in that country and to whom the Americans were giving business.\r\nb)      Research conducted by psychologists show that children as young as four demonstrate these tribal instincts. So Jewish kids have little sympathy for Arab kids and vice versa. Research also shows that if kids don’t have such instincts, they can be very easily trained to harbour such instincts.\r\nc)      As economic life in America polarises between the “haves” on the coast and the “have nots” everywhere else, the have nots are behaving exactly as you would expect a tribe under pressure to behave. They are electing someone who behaves like them – Trump – to lead them. They are ostracising the “have nots”. They are supporting measures to crush other tribes eg. immigrants.\r\nUnless the elites in America wake up the tribal instincts that people display – in America and elsewhere – they will continue to suffer reverses at home and abroad.</em>', 'Tribal World – Group Identity is All', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1140-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '2019-11-13 05:29:33', '', 1140, 'https://marcellus.in/1140-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2354, 1, '2019-11-13 05:31:35', '2019-11-13 05:31:35', 'In his succinct article, John discusses the adverse impact that consumption led growth has put on the environment and how recycling can reduce the burden on the environment.\r\n<em>“Each person in the world draws about 10 tonnes of raw materials from metals to biomass annually into the economy to support consumption and production, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which advocates a circular economy. Much of it will end up as waste, given how hard it is to reuse — only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is taken for recycling, and far less actually recycled.”</em>\r\nJohn further shares Ikeas plan of not only recycling more of its furniture but also leasing them out. He discusses the benefits of circular economy (recycling/reusing/leasing) and how photocopier and automobile companies have successfully used renting/leasing model over the years.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most circular thing about Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, has traditionally been the path that it makes customers follow through its superstores to find the goods they have driven there to buy. As they wander along its displays, Ikea wants them to spot other decorations and take them home too. The “circular economy” now means something else: the reuse and repurposing of products in different ways. Ikea disclosed this week that it not only wants to recycle more furniture, but plans a trial in Switzerland this year to lease desks, chairs and perhaps kitchens. Instead of acquiring furniture cheaply and later throwing it away, customers might lease it for a while and then upgrade, with the old pieces being refurbished for other users.”</em>\r\n<em>Companies can start with packaging, too much of which is made from complex plastics that ends up in landfill or the world’s oceans. Reusing a tiny sachet with a pullback plastic lid is very tricky, and recycling in general is more expensive following China’s crackdown on imports of waste last year. More containers should be refillable, like the glass bottles brought to my door by our milkman, and SodaStream’s carbon dioxide gas canisters for bubbly water. Packaged goods groups including Nestlé and Procter &amp; Gamble plan to experiment this year in London, Paris and the US with refillable brand packaging through a start-up called Loop.</em>\r\n<em>Packaging is only one of the excesses in the way that products are marketed and consumed. Not only are things bought and disposed of rapidly, but many are used sparingly while their owners have them — in Europe, the average car is parked 92 per cent of the time and 31 per cent of food is wasted, McKinsey estimates.</em>\r\n<em>Consumers can learn a lesson from the way companies often lease equipment and goods, paying by usage rather than for objects themselves. That applies to photocopiers made by Kyocera and Xerox, while the flooring company Desso leases office carpets — cleaning as well as fitting.</em>\r\n<em>More things could be rented by individuals, as technology has encouraged. The internet makes it easier to share occupancy of cars and apartments through Uber and Airbnb, and people subscribe to music and other digital services rather than buying discs. People lease cars for three or four years and there is no reason why more durable goods, including furniture, cannot be rented. Not only does it limit waste but it gives companies an incentive to make things sturdily — better materials would require fewer repairs.</em>\r\n<em>The circular economy has pitfalls, notably the so-called rebound effect: the easier it is to use products, the more intensively this will happen. That is not a problem for furniture, but sharing cars can exacerbate congestion and pollution rather than curbing it. But the reuse and refurbishment of goods has enormous benefits compared with things being sold once, used for a time and then dumped. At best, recycling involves breaking things into raw materials and, in effect, discarding all the investment and labour that went into their making and marketing.</em>\r\n<em>If Ikea aspires to become circular, there is no reason why others should not follow. It will be difficult to reform the consumption habits of the past few decades but all of us — consumers and companies — can try.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Ikea furniture does not need to fall apart', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1163-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:31:35', '2019-11-13 05:31:35', '', 1163, 'https://marcellus.in/1163-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2355, 1, '2019-11-13 05:33:13', '2019-11-13 05:33:13', 'Eileen Murray, the co-chief executive officer of Bridgewater Associates, spoke at a hedge fund conference this week, and reiterated that what makes Bridgewater so successful is:\r\n<em>“Bridgewater Associates has been so successful, year after year, Murray said, because of its unique and intense culture.</em>\r\n<em>Bridgewater’s ethos of “radical transparency” involves videotaping or tape-recording every conversation for review later, constant evaluations of peers across what elsewhere would be called a hierarchy in its “dot system” which aggregates into “baseball cards,” portraits of each employee which indicate that person’s strengths or weaknesses. That makes it hard to fly below the radar with mediocre performance and low accountability. And, given the volume of dots, the odds that your portrait is accurate are pretty high, Murray said.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s kind of a family atmosphere,” she said. “I don’t know about you, but for me, my family tells me things I don’t want to hear. But they do it out of a sense of love and kindness…Some people think [the culture] sounds harsh and stressful. I think it’s very kind.”</em>\r\nThe author of this article is however sceptical that this sort of self-obsession is actually useful. His scepticism is however laced with grudging admiration that maybe this degree of self-obsession is what the rest of us need if we want to be as successful as Bridgewater:\r\n<em>“Clearly some hedge-fund-like outputs are being produced, somehow, by someone. But from the outside, from what you read in the press and hear from its public statements, Bridgewater’s radical transparency seems to be a perfectly closed system, always and only about itself, never about investing.</em>\r\n<em>Don’t get me wrong: That’s really cool! I mean it would be a lot less cool if they didn’t make any money, but they do, and the fact that they seem to make a lot of money mostly by sitting around and gossiping about each other is weirdly inspiring. It is an odd financial form of the paradox of hedonism, or rather an inversion of it: You might naively think something like “if we get together a team of smart people who all have a single-minded focus on making good investment decisions, then the interpersonal dynamics and managerial techniques will take care of themselves.” Many hedge funds — and tech startups for that matter — more or less consciously take exactly that approach, with mixed results. But in fact, at Bridgewater, it is precisely the opposite: If you get together a team of smart people who are willing to spend 100 percent of their time doing weird interpersonal exercises and subjecting themselves to managerial experiments, somehow they will make good investment decisions as a byproduct.</em><em>\r\n”</em>', 'Bridgewater’s Self-Obsession Actually … Works?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1159-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:33:13', '2019-11-13 05:33:13', '', 1159, 'https://marcellus.in/1159-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2356, 1, '2019-11-13 05:36:23', '2019-11-13 05:36:23', 'Gideon Rachman raises the question whether Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump are a temporary aberration or a beginning of a new era. Gideon divides the post-war era into two periods each of which lasted roughly around 30 years– 1) from 1945-75, which was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management and 2) from 1979 with the election win of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980 and lasted till 2008. Both the eras witnessed strong growth and spread of ideologies to different parts of the world. Gideon says that Trump ideology is spreading across the globe with people/political parties condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees. However, Gideon rightfully points to a fact that populist movement will not survive decades just on electoral success but needs to show tangible results like improved living standards visible across the west during 1945-75 and renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war during 1979-2008 era.\r\n<em>“How long is this going to last? Ever since the twin political upheavals of 2016 — Britain’s vote for Brexit and America’s election of Donald Trump — analysts have argued about whether this a temporary aberration, or the beginning of a new era.</em>\r\n<em>It is still early days. But it already seems likely that future historians will look upon the events of 2016 as marking the beginning of a new cycle in international history. The bad news for anguished liberals is that these cycles can last quite a long time — 30 years seems to be about average. In the years since “Brexit-and-Trump”, a global populist movement has gathered momentum. The fact that Mr Trump is despised by much of the western establishment and media can obscure this point. But the US president has many admirers, some of them running governments around the world.</em>\r\n<em>Jair Bolsonaro, the new president of Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, is an avowed Trump fan. In the Middle East, the Saudi and Israeli governments much prefer Mr Trump to Barack Obama, his predecessor. His fan club also extends into Europe. The governments of Poland and Hungary are closer ideologically to the Trump White House than to the European Commission in Brussels. Matteo Salvini, the deputy prime minister of Italy (and the country’s most powerful man), also sees Mr Trump as a role model.</em>\r\n<em>The horror show of Brexit means that there are few other European populist parties currently campaigning to leave the EU. But the anti-establishment impulse that gave rise to the Brexit vote is still gathering strength in Europe. It has found expression in diverse forms, from the gilets jaunes movement in France to the rise of the Alternative for Germany party, which is now the official opposition in the German parliament.</em>\r\n<em>Past precedent suggests that if a “populist era” takes hold, it might last as long as three decades. All efforts at historical periodisation are slightly artificial. But it is possible to identify two distinct eras in postwar western politics, both of which lasted roughly 30 years. The period from 1945-1975, known as les trente glorieuses in France, was identified with a period of strong economic growth across the west, alongside the construction of welfare states and Keynesian demand-management — all played out against the international backdrop of the cold war. By the mid-1970s, this model had run into trouble in the Anglo-American world, with Britain suffering from “stagflation” and President Jimmy Carter diagnosing a national “malaise” in the US. A new era (often termed “neoliberal” by its critics) began in 1979 with the election of Margaret Thatcher in Britain, followed by Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980.</em>\r\n<em>In retrospect, this was also part of a global shift. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping came to power in China and initiated a policy of market-based “reform and opening-up”. The communist bloc in Europe also began to crack with the formation of the Solidarity trade union in Poland in September 1980. The foundations of a globalised capitalist economy were emerging. This “neoliberal era” also lasted roughly 30 years until it was discredited by the global financial crisis of 2008. As with the end of the trente glorieuses, it took a few years of uncertainty before a new ideological movement emerged. But that happened in 2016, with Mr Trump’s election and Brexit.</em>\r\n<em>But why should cycles in modern history last for roughly 30 years? One possible explanation is that the successful ideologies and the political movements they spawn go through a cycle of emulation followed by overshoot. If new movements or politicians develop an aura of success, they find imitators around the world. That sense of ideological momentum then creates a demand for the original ideas behind the movement to be pushed further and faster. And that leads to the over-reach phase of the cycle. An example of ideological over-reach is the way in which the Reaganite demand for lower taxes and less red tape eventually led to the excessive deregulation of finance, culminating in the financial crisis. The fact that populist and nationalist parties around the world are already taking their cue from Mr Trump suggests that the cycle of emulation is already well under way. It is now standard practice for politicians, such as Viktor Orban in Hungary, as well as Messrs Salvini and Bolsonaro, to imitate the Trump playbook — condemning “globalism”, accusing the media of spreading fake news, mocking the “politically correct”, and scorning international organisations that attempt to deal with problems such as climate change or the resettlement of refugees.</em>\r\n<em>The rapid spread of this new political style could be just the beginning of a new era that lasts decades. But there is one major qualification to this idea, that distressed liberals should hang on to. If the period of emulation and intensification is to last, the populist movement needs more than electoral success. It also needs to point to results in the real world. The trente glorieuses were deemed glorious because living standards were visibly rising across the west. In the same way, the Reagan-Thatcher era was solidified by renewed economic growth and victory in the cold war.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Brexit is in deep trouble and the Trump administration is floundering. Unless populists can deliver tangible results, their new era could yet die in its infancy.”</em>', 'The Trump era could last 30 years', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1157-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:36:23', '2019-11-13 05:36:23', '', 1157, 'https://marcellus.in/1157-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2357, 1, '2019-11-13 05:37:42', '2019-11-13 05:37:42', 'This remarkable FT article takes us into the world ultra-long distance running where the results show that women don’t just beat men, they leave the men dozens of miles behind. Why exactly this is happening has become the subject of research by scientists. Scientists at the University of British Columbia in Canada have found that men tire more quickly than women. Other scientists have found that men’s calves and thighs get fatigued more quickly than that of women. Long distance running experts say that preparation also plays a role – women seem to prepare more meticulously for races than men. Whatever the underlying drivers are, our preconceptions of which gender is stronger is taking a knock and with it the notion of what it really means to be strong.\r\n<em>“Men will always, on average, have bigger hearts and a greater capacity to get oxygen to their muscles, which are also leaner. These advantages don’t go away at longer distances, but they do get clouded by many other factors, making the science tricky even where it happens. “If you want to predict who will win a 5km race, you can take them into the lab and get a good sense,” says Alex Hutchinson, author of Outside Magazine’s Sweat Science blog, and the book Endure: Mind, Body, and the Curiously Elastic Limits of Human Performance. “But if you want to know who’s going to win a 200-mile race, lab tests will tell you way less.”</em>\r\n<em>More efficient storage of glycogen, a vital fuel, may slightly favour women. A lower centre of gravity may help them cover challenging terrain. Several more studies have looked at muscle fatigue. Guillaume Millet, a former endurance runner and professor at the Université Jean Monnet in France, studied male and female participants before and after the Ultra-Trail du Mont-Blanc, a major ultra-marathon in the Alps. He found that the men’s calves and thighs got more fatigued than the women’s. “It suggests females are more fatigue-resistant,” Millet says. “But another potential explanation is that women have a more protective base — they decide not to damage themselves as much.”</em>\r\n<em>Enter: psychology, which takes in attitude, ego and personality, and perhaps counts for as much if not more than legs and lungs in extreme races. Millet says no scientist entertains cod theories about childbirth and the evolutionary advantage that it supposedly awards women who encounter pain. (“My daughter was born backwards but I don’t think that one experience trains you for other unpleasant experiences,” Paris says.) But some suggest an instinct for preservation — and organisation — may provide an edge.”</em>', 'Why women win in the long run', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1155-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:37:42', '2019-11-13 05:37:42', '', 1155, 'https://marcellus.in/1155-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2358, 1, '2019-11-13 05:39:00', '2019-11-13 05:39:00', 'In an interesting new book called “White Identity Politics”, American political scientist Ashley Jardina of Duke University looks at the increasing relevance of white identity in American politics. What she finds is interesting and potentially has relevance for Indian politics if you replace “white” with “caste Hindus”.\r\n<em>“Drawing on data from American National Election Studies surveys and her own research, Jardina finds that about thirty to forty per cent of white Americans say that white identity is important to them, and she adds an interesting twist—that this group only partly overlaps with the group of white Americans who hold racist views. According to Jardina’s analysis, about thirty-eight per cent of white people who highly value their white identity are at or below the mean level of racial resentment, while forty-four per cent of white people who say their racial identity is less important are at or above that level.”</em>\r\nBasically, a lot of Americans who don’t necessarily think of themselves as white are racist. In the Indian context we see this effect play out in daily life – a lot of people who are not necessarily devout Hindus have strong anti-Islamic feelings.\r\nJardina highlights that Trump’s cleverness lies in understanding this and constantly playing up issues which pander to the inner racist in white Americans. Take for example, the whole furore around the wall that he wants to build on the Mexican border. There is a reason Trump has doubled down on this issue. Jardina says:\r\n<em>“I mean, we see this now with his strong stance on the border wall. Immigration is a particularly important topic to white identifiers, and Trump has continued to make that a central issue to the national political agenda, even in the face of the fact that we don’t have a border crisis. Since Trump took office, immigration levels have decreased in the United States.”</em>\r\nIn India we can see how the RSS and the BJP is consistently able to keep issues around religious identity (triple talaq, Ram mandir, Citizenship Act, cows, Islamic sounding names of streets or stations) in the public eye. Why does this help? Because as Jardina points out whites don’t necessarily need to dislike African-Americans or Latinos for Trump to get their vote. All he has to do is give whites an image of America – white, strong, Anglo-Saxon, etc – which they can feel good about and which they identify with Trump.\r\n<em>“For people high on white identity, opposition to immigration doesn’t necessarily come as a result of disliking Latinos. It is rootbed in something different, which is that they think immigration is threatening American culture, but a particular flavor of American culture, one which is defined by Anglo-Saxon Protestant heritage, which is very much defined by whiteness. Somebody might just be opposed to immigration because they dislike Latinos. But there’s a different component to this that’s going on in the minds of a lot of white people. It’s not, “I dislike Latino people.” It’s, “I don’t like the idea that the country that I envision, the country that I grew up in, the place that is defined by this Anglo-Saxon culture, is somehow threatened by this new group. I don’t like the idea that we’re talking about Spanish being a prevalent language rather than English.” It’s about the erosion of the ability to define mainstream America as white.”</em>\r\nIn their ability to transcend the old fashioned economic issues of jobs and growth, a new generation of politicians are showing the world that elections are won by appealing to our inner fears and fantasies rather than to our wallets.', 'The Disturbing, Surprisingly Complex Relationship Between White Identity Politics and Racism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1153-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:39:00', '2019-11-13 05:39:00', '', 1153, 'https://marcellus.in/1153-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2359, 1, '2019-11-13 05:40:12', '2019-11-13 05:40:12', 'In his article, Rana Foroohar beautifully captures the downside of massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. She starts the article by highlighting the over-optimism shown by new tech companies which is in sharp contrast to what market expects from the technology sector this year.\r\nAccording to Rana, many big IPO’s are going to hit the market this year not only to beat the expected recession in the economy but also to encash the lofty valuation of their investee company <em>– “The coming spate of initial public offerings in particular looks shaky. Uber’s chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi was all over Davos, talking up the company’s forthcoming initial public offering. But the talk had a whiff of desperation. Uber, along with Lyft and a host of other large, still-private tech companies such as Slack and Airbnb, are likely to try to go public sooner rather than later — not only because of worries about a coming recession and volatile markets, but because they have grown so fat on private funding, it is unclear whether the market will be able to sustain their valuations. (Uber’s, for example, is pegged at $100bn.) They want to get their money while the getting is good.”</em>\r\nRana discusses how the new generation of entrepreneurs and VC funds are focussing on delivering unicorns at the shortest span of time and often at the expense of sustainable &amp; profitable business model – <em>“Over the past five or so years, there’s been a massive growth in the number of venture-capital-backed unicorns. Companies such as Uber, Lyft, Spotify, and Dropbox can lose money hand over fist, and yet still continue to grow in valuation. Indeed, it is all part of the new business dynamic.</em>\r\n<em>Low barriers to entry result in many competitors and a race to spend as much as possible to grab market share. Not only do the private companies that emerge from this unproductive cycle become bloated, so too do the venture funds themselves. Billion-dollar venture funds, once unheard of, are now commonplace. Last year, Sequoia raised an $8bn seed fund, and SoftBank a whopping $100bn fund.”</em>\r\nRana ends the article on a cautious note and highlights University of California academic notes which says “unicorns are mythical beasts” – <em>“this may be good for some of the VCs who can use the inflated values of unicorns on their books to raise more money and charge more management fees. But I can’t see how it is good for economic value overall. Massive debt financing of unprofitable firms to create monopolies might benefit some entrepreneurs and investors, but it distorts capital and labour markets and is anti-competitive.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As long as investors are willing to accept growth as a metric for value, the music can keep playing. But as the University of California academics note, “unicorns are mythical beasts”. This year, their financial reality, as well as the sustainability of the current funding model, will be subject to some much-needed testing.</em>\r\n<em>Some of the new crop of hyped-up companies may eventually turn into Cheshire cats, disappearing and leaving behind only the grins of those who got out before the bubble burst.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=201c0cacc3&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Another tech bubble could be about to burst', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1175-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:40:12', '2019-11-13 05:40:12', '', 1175, 'https://marcellus.in/1175-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2360, 1, '2019-11-13 05:42:24', '2019-11-13 05:42:24', 'Part of the fun of reading the legendary strategist Russell Napier is that we are reminded that we have so much more to learn about the world we live in. In this succinct piece for the FT he explains (once again) what he has been saying for the past ten years – now that the post-Lehman damage limitation job is done [in the form of QE] we are heading towards the collapse of the global monetary system.\r\nThe system we are living in at present, says Napier, was stitched together post mid-1990s Asian crisis wherein central banks implicitly agreed that they would keep their currencies weak by constantly buying US government bonds. This resulted in most countries other than America accumulating massive forex reserves and it allowed America to fund its burgeoning public debt at low yields. For equity investors around the world this created conditions in which they could make lots of money – growth was punchy thanks to weak currencies and the global cost of capital was low since US government bond yields were held in check. In effect, the rise in American public debt was funded by central banks in other countries thus freeing up American savings (and savings in other countries) to invest in the private sector.\r\nNapier says that this party started coming to end from 2014 onwards as other central banks started cutting back on their purchases of US government bonds. <em>“Foreign central banks ownership of US Treasuries has fallen from a third five years ago to just under a quarter today. Savers must take up the funding slack, while also buying Treasuries being sold by the Federal Reserve. This structural shift in the demand for Treasuries comes as supply is boosted by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy. Savers now have to fund the US government, and to do so they have to either sell other assets or save more. All the movements in asset prices over the past six months bear witness to the huge shift in savings under way, with negative implications ultimately for economic growth.”</em>\r\nNapier reckons things will get worse going forward. (1) Lower growth, lower inflation and higher cost of capital will lead to lower asset prices and lower cashflows. That in turn will create solvency issues since the global ratio of non-financial debt: GDP is 234% now vs 210% in Dec 2010. (2) China looks like it is heading for a train wreck as the <em>“country’s debt:GDP ratio is rising at probably the fastest rate ever for a big economy is peacetime….the burden of the economic adjustment enforced by the end of the growth in its foreign exchange reserves, and hence money supply, will probably be deflationary and will involve debt default. China will probably move to a flexible exchange rate, thus creating the freedom to grow and inflate away these debts. It is that exchange-rate adjustment that will destroy the current global monetary system.”</em>', 'Cracks are opening in the global monetary system', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1173-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:42:24', '2019-11-13 05:42:24', '', 1173, 'https://marcellus.in/1173-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2361, 1, '2019-11-13 05:43:51', '2019-11-13 05:43:51', 'Priya Ramani, the Mint columnist whose spunk catalysed the “Me Too” movement in India last year, profiles a very different type of Indian – Afroz Shah. Unlike people like us who sit in air-conditioned offices and fulminate about the challenges facing India, Afroz hits the beaches and riverbanks of Mumbai to deal with messiest of problems, namely, the accumulation of garbage, of sewage and of industrial pollutants on the beaches of Mumbai and in the Mithi River (whose source lies 3 miles away from Marcellus’ offices).\r\n<em>“The story of the Mithi—named so because its waters were once sweet and fit to drink—is a bitter one. The 18km-long river, which carries the overflow of the city’s Powai and Vihar lakes to the Arabian Sea, has been dismissed by experts as the city’s biggest sewer. After its starring role in Mumbai’s 2005 floods, when instead of playing its part as an efficient storm water drain, the river vomited thousands of litres of sewage and industrial waste-filled water on to the streets, any residual love the city had for it dried up quickly.</em>\r\n<em>Observers who have tracked the erosion of the once dense mangroves around the Mithi were not surprised by the havoc the river wreaked. “Over a decade, the river’s course had been diverted ninety degrees by the extension of a runway at the airport, its width narrowed by the Bandra Kurla Complex, and its mouth pinched by the Bandra-Worli Sea Link,” author Naresh Fernandes says in A City Adrift, adding that middle-class Mumbaikars predictably glossed over this and instead blamed the catastrophe on the slums that had come up on the river’s banks. Crores have been spent—mostly unsuccessfully—trying to revive the river.</em>\r\n<em>But these are just details for Shah, who recently completed the “world’s biggest beach clean-up” (in the words of the United Nations’ environment arm) at Versova in Mumbai. After clearing 20 million kilogrammes of garbage in three years, Shah handed over a pristine beach to the city’s municipal body in November.”</em>\r\nWhat makes Afroz even more interesting is his financial model and operating philosophy:\r\n<em>“Shah does his work without any external grants or organizational support; the money comes mostly from his earnings as a successful lawyer. His is an entirely volunteer-run effort. “Each one does his or her bit and goes home. Ten per cent of what I earn I give back,” he says. “If I need three tractors or four excavators, I go to the bank and withdraw money and rent them,” he says….</em>\r\n<em>Every weekend, he cooks and carries with him food for 50-100 people. He uses community meals as a platform to educate the millions who live along the river, explaining ideas such as recycling and sustainability. In recent weeks, the Dawoodi Bohra community has pitched in with food….</em>\r\n<em>He gets exasperated when, like your average annoying adult, I ask him for solutions to our couldn’t-care-less attitude about garbage. “Your assumption is that there is a solution. After working for four years, I’m not under any illusion that there is any solution,” he says, adding that the only thing we can do is to start our own personal journeys. “If a solution comes, so be it. If not, we still have to do our duty.”</em>', 'Afroz Shah’s New Year Lesson', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1171-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:43:51', '2019-11-13 05:43:51', '', 1171, 'https://marcellus.in/1171-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2362, 1, '2019-11-13 05:44:48', '2019-11-13 05:44:48', 'Morgan Housel distils the post war US economy into this lucid piece which brilliantly converges the discourse towards inequality. <em>“But a central theme of this story is that expectations move slower than reality on the ground. That was true when people clung to 1950s expectations as the economy changed over the next 35 years. And even if a middle-class boom began today, expectations that the odds are stacked against everyone but those at the top may stick around.” </em>However, whilst Morgan explains how such inequality came about, he leaves out the why for another debate.\r\n<strong>1. August, 1945. World War II ends.</strong>\r\nMorgan starts the article with US victory and end of World War II in 1945 and the big question being faced by US decision makers –“ What happens now”. Sixteen million Americans ( 11% of the population) who served in the war were freed-up with the war ending and the question in front of the Government was        – What were they going to do next?, Where were they going to work?, Where were they going to live?\r\n<strong>2. So we did something about it: Low interest rates and the intentional birth of the American consumer.</strong>\r\nFed kept the interest rate very low which resulted in borrowing to buy homes, cars, gadgets, and toys really cheap. “An era of encouraging thrift and saving to fund the war quickly turned into an era of actively promoting spending.”\r\n<strong>3. Pent-up demand for stuff fed by a credit boom and a hidden 1930s productivity boom led to an economic boom.</strong>\r\n“The answer to the question, “What are all these GIs going to do after the war?” was now obvious. They were going to buy stuff, with money earned from their jobs making new stuff, helped by cheap borrowed money to buy even more stuff.”\r\n<strong>4. Gains are shared more equally than ever before.</strong>\r\n“The defining characteristic of economics in the 1950s is that the country got rich by making the poor less poor….Average wages doubled from 1940 to 1948, then doubled again by 1963…. Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980…. The rich man smokes the same sort of cigarettes as the poor man, shaves with the same sort of razor, uses the same sort of telephone, vacuum cleaner, radio, and TV set, has the same sort of lighting and heating equipment in his house, and so on indefinitely….. This was important. People measure their well being against their peers. And for most of the 1945-1980 period, people had a lot of what looked like peers to compare themselves to. Many people – most people – lived lives that were either equal or at least fathomable to those around them.”\r\n<strong>5. Debt rose tremendously. But so did incomes, so the impact wasn’t a big deal.</strong>\r\nSharp jump in household debt (5X from 1947 to 1957) did not have much impact due to strong income growth during the same period\r\n<strong>6. Things start cracking.</strong>\r\n“1973 was the first year where it became clear the economy was walking down a new path. The recession that began that year brought unemployment to the highest it had been since the 1930s. Inflation surged. But unlike the post-war spikes, it stayed high. Short-term interest rates hit 8% in 1973, up from 2.5% a decade earlier.”\r\n<strong>7. The boom resumes, but it’s different than before.</strong>\r\nThe biggest difference between the economy of the 1945-1973 period and that of the 1982-2000 period was that the same amount of growth found its way into totally different pockets. Between 1993 and 2012, the top 1 percent saw their incomes grow 86.1 percent, while the bottom 99 percent saw just 6.6 percent growth. Joseph Stiglitz in 2011:<em>While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone.</em>\r\n<em>Why this happened is one of the nastiest debates in economics, topped only by the debate over what we should do about it. Lucky for this article neither matters.</em>\r\n<em>All that matters is that sharp inequality became a force over the last 35 years, and it happened during a period where, culturally, Americans held onto two ideas rooted in the post-WW2 economy: That you should live a lifestyle similar to most other Americans, and that taking on debt to finance that lifestyle is acceptable.</em>\r\n<strong>8. The Big Stretch</strong>\r\nThe lifestyles of a small portion of legitimately rich Americans inflated the aspirations of the majority of Americans, whose incomes weren’t rising. And to fulfil their aspiration, Americans started to borrow heavily – from housing loan to car loan to personal loan.\r\n<em>“A culture of equality and Togetherness that came out of the 1950s-1970s innocently morphs into a Keeping Up With The Joneses effect.</em>\r\n<em>Now you can see the problem.</em>\r\n<em>Joe, an investment banker making $900,000 a year, buys a 4,000 square foot house with two Mercedes and sends three of his kids to Pepperdine. He can afford it.</em>\r\n<em>Peter, a bank branch manager making $80,000 a year, sees Joe and feels a subconscious sense of entitlement to live a similar lifestyle, because Peter’s parents believed – and instilled in him – that Americans’ lifestyles weren’t that different even if they had different jobs. His parents were right during their era, because incomes fell into a tight distribution. But that was then. Peter lives in a different world. But his expectations haven’t changed much from his parents, even if the facts have.</em>\r\n<em>So what does Peter do?</em>\r\n<em>He takes out a huge mortgage. He has $45,000 of credit card debt. He leases two cars. His kids will graduate with heavy student loans. He can’t afford the stuff Joe can, but he’s pushed to stretch for the same lifestyle. It is a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>This would have seemed preposterous to someone in the 1930s. But we’ve spent a half-century since the end of the war fostering a cultural acceptance of household debt.”</em>\r\n<strong>9. Once a paradigm is in place it is very hard to turn it around.</strong>\r\n“A lot of debt was shed after 2008. And then interest rates plunged. Household debt payments as a percentage of income are now at the lowest levels in 35 years.”\r\nMorgan discusses the human psychology of expecting something which in reality is not possible – “It just matters that it did happen, and it caused the economy to shift away from people’s expectations that were set after the war: That there’s a broad middle class without systematic inequality, where your neighbours next door and a few miles down the road live a life that’s pretty similar to yours.\r\nPart of the reason these expectations have stuck around for 35 years after they shifted away from reality is because they felt so good for so many people when they were valid. Something that good – or at least the impression that it was that good – isn’t easy to let go of.\r\n<strong>10. The Tea Party, Occupy Wall Street, Brexit, and the rise of Donald Trump each represents a group shouting, “Stop the ride, I want off.” So people haven’t let go of it. They want it back.”</strong>\r\n<em>“The details of their shouting are different, but they’re all shouting – at least in part – because stuff isn’t working for them within the context of the post-war expectation that stuff should work roughly the same for roughly everyone…</em>\r\n<em>You can scoff at linking the rise of Trump to income inequality alone. And you should. These things are always layers of complexity deep. But it’s a key part of what drives people to think, “I don’t live in the world I expected. That pisses me off. So screw this. And screw you! I’m going to fight for something totally different, because this – whatever it is – isn’t working.”</em>\r\n<em>Take that mentality and raise it to the power of Facebook, Instagram, and cable news – where people are more keenly aware of how other people live than ever before. It’s gasoline on a flame. Benedict Evans says, “The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.” That’s a big shift from the post-war economy where the range of economic opinions were smaller, both because the actual range of outcomes was lower and because it wasn’t as easy to see and learn what other people thought and how they lived.</em>”', 'How This All Happened', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1169-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:44:48', '2019-11-13 05:44:48', '', 1169, 'https://marcellus.in/1169-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2363, 1, '2019-11-13 05:46:17', '2019-11-13 05:46:17', 'A pioneer in investigative journalism in India, Sucheta Dalal, has written a thought provoking piece on what is probably the most important court case in RBI’s history – it’s tussle with Uday Kotak on the matter of Mr Kotak’s shareholding in Kotak Bank. If the RBI loses this case it is hard to see how it will be able to maintain the legitimacy of the myriad rules it has created with regards to bank ownership in India.\r\n<em>“RBI ordered the promoters of Kotak Mahindra Bank (Kotak) and Bandhan Bank to bring down promoter holding to below 20%. In Kotak’s case, there has been back-and-forth on the issue for 10 long years, largely because of the many changes in guidelines and regulations in the interim. Finally, RBI gave an ultimatum to both the Banks and threatened coercive action if they did not comply by 31 December 2018….</em>\r\n<em>Does RBI really have the power to punish banks on the basis of unexplained and ever-changing rules on the acceptable promoter holding? Can a regulator, which has repeatedly failed to catch wrongdoing for over 25 years (from Harshad Mehta to Nirav Modi and Gitanjali), have no accountability for capricious actions against good managements and consequent damage to shareholder value? Isn’t it absurd that two highly successful bankers are being punished by the regulator, despite exemplary performance?</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition raises many important issues which, if  taken to a logical conclusion, will force some clarity on RBI’s powers, policymaking and supervision and its accountability….</em>\r\n<em>The Kotak petition, which I have reviewed, makes four compelling points. </em>\r\n<em>1. RBI’s many changes on promoter shareholding, after it was granted a banking licence in February 2003, ought not be applied retrospectively to it.</em>\r\n<em> 2. RBI’s regulations are ultra vires of Sections 12, Sec 12(2) and Sec 12(B) of the Banking Regulation Act (BR Act). Kotak argues that the BR Act does not empower RBI to ask any bank to reduce shareholding; the Act only permits it to fix a ceiling on voting rights. Or, if a shareholder is found to be ‘not fit and proper’ [Sec 12-B (8)], to curtail such person’s voting rights to 5%. It further argues that RBI’s general powers under Sec 35-A to issue directions to banks and make delegated legislation, is also circumscribed by the need for these to be in public interest and to protect depositors’ interest. </em>\r\n<em> 3. Kotak claims that it has complied with RBI’s direction by reducing its stake to 19.5% (below the mandated 20%) in August 2018 by issuing perpetual non-convertible preference shares (PNCPs). RBI had immediately rejected the move and demanded a reduction in paid-up voting capital to prevent concentration of control.</em>\r\n<em> 4. Finally, the petition says, compliance would require the Bank to issue fresh equity of Rs1.10 lakh crore, which was “equal to the entire market-capitalisation of State Bank of India.” It calls this ‘manifestly unreasonable’, since it would not only dilute share value but require large placements to foreign institutional investors….</em>\r\n<em>Whichever way one looks at it, the Kotak petition is a lose-lose proposition for RBI, whose power has been challenged for the first time in court (unlike SEBI which is routinely dragged to the Supreme Court over most decisions). </em>\r\n<em>If Kotak wins—and it has a strong case—it could seriously circumscribe RBI’s powers and make it more accountable than the government could ever have done. Investors will also want to know how this extreme rigidity, backed by punitive action, helps improve its supervision and catch the next IL&amp;FS or NiravModi/Gitanjali in time. Those failures have inflicted far bigger pain on India’s financial system. If RBI wins and forces Kotak to dilute shareholding through needless acquisitions or issue of capital, it would mean an endorsement of capricious changes and no accountability for regulators.”</em>\r\nClearly, the piece has been written from Uday Kotak’s point of view. It would be really interesting if someone as distinguished as Ms Dalal could write a piece from the RBI’s point-of-view. In particular, it would be really interesting to know what transpired in July-September 2018 which prompted the RBI to go after Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and Bandhan Bank’s promoters.', 'Kotak Lawsuit: Will It Finally Make RBI Accountable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1165-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:46:17', '2019-11-13 05:46:17', '', 1165, 'https://marcellus.in/1165-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2364, 1, '2019-11-13 05:47:43', '2019-11-13 05:47:43', 'Rohit Brijnath is the sort of sportswriter who can make a sportslover love sport even more. But this one is about Jasprit Bumrah. And Brijnath in his typical style invokes the legends…from a Messi to Nadal to Warne to Federer. Bumrah has a long way to go before he can be quoted in the same breath but given that he, alongside Pujara sculpted what is a historic test series win Down Under, Brijnath will be excused. If Sandeep Dwivedi’s sublime prose was about Pujara’s grind up to greatness, Brijnath’s ode romanticises Bumrah’s exciting talent from a fan’s perspective. Here is why:\r\n<em><u>Because he is fast</u></em><em> and he takes us back in time in 1970-80’s when everything was slow—“ But really in Kolkata, where I come from, life in the 1970-80s was unhurried. Even the tea seemed to brew more slowly. Babus slurped it and gravelly pondered every request as if it was an existential question. Trams rattled and wheezed, street-side bookshops were lingered at and the world was debated without conclusion at coffee shops. Bishen Singh Bedi turned his arm over at Eden Gardens like a man in a slow trance, Sunil Gavaskar batted time, Ramesh Krishnan’s serve took part of a day to cross the net and my dad wanted to take me to Alekhine Chess Club to watch carved pieces move. So excuse me if I keep staring at the radar gun after each Bumrah delivery – 140kmh. 142.5. 148..”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he’s an adult – “</u></em><em>Bumrah is a send-off-free hero who is too smart to be a stereotype, too evolved to be just another swearing, pointing, glaring fast bowler.”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because he makes things happen- “</u></em><em>When he holds the ball, I always find my chair, as if I’m attending a private concert. There’s no one else in the Indian team I do that for. Not even Kohli (sorry, mate).”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because He’s Always At Batsmen- “</u></em><em>He’s suffocating in his own way, imprisoning with his accuracy, asking questions as fast and intelligently as an interrogator from an Aaron Sorkin script, frustrating batsmen, making them hurry, giving no respite”</em>\r\n<em><u>Because Of That Action- “</u></em><em>We’ve all played against a kid like him in our youth. Or the one who didn’t move his left arm and just rolled his right arm over. Or the cack-handed hockey guy and the tennis fellow who chased his service toss. We used to laugh because we believed only in the classical. As if there was a set way for everything.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5b19be87b5&amp;e=d4bc0ec9d7\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Why you gotta love Jasprit Bumrah', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1113-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:47:43', '2019-11-13 05:47:43', '', 1113, 'https://marcellus.in/1113-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2365, 1, '2019-11-13 05:49:17', '2019-11-13 05:49:17', 'We had to pay our respects. And the FT Editorial does the job in a nice, succinct way. Jack Bogle, the father of passive investing, arguably the most impactful innovation in the investment management industry, passed away last week. The editorial aptly starts by quoting Noble Prize-winning economist Paul Samuelson’s article in which he argues that <em>“There might be stock pickers who beat others consistently but they were “remarkably well hidden” and trying to find them rather than investing in the market as a whole was a waste of money.”</em>\r\n<em>Samuelson pointed out that Wall Street was ignoring this inconvenient truth, despite reams of academic evidence, and called for a revolution. “The ball is in the court of the practical men: it is the turn of the Mountain to take a first step toward the theoretical Mohammed,” he wrote.The Mountain soon arrived in the form of Jack Bogle, the charming, iconoclastic and persuasive financial pioneer who died this week at the age of 89. Bogle’s innovation — the first mutual fund to follow passively the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 index — changed Wall Street and saved billions in fees. “He is a hero to them and to me,” the investor Warren Buffett once wrote.”</em>\r\nBogle not only highlighted the merits of passive investing but also highlighted the issue of conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry –<em>“ Technology needed a human face and Bogle provided it. It also needed someone to reject the conflict of interest at the heart of the investment industry. As long as mutual funds convinced people that star fund managers achieved higher returns, they could charge fat fees. Bogle was willing to court unpopularity by admitting that his fellow emperors lacked clothes.”</em>', 'Jack Bogle: the selfless preacher of the passive revolution', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1111-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:49:17', '2019-11-13 05:49:17', '', 1111, 'https://marcellus.in/1111-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2366, 1, '2019-11-13 05:50:24', '2019-11-13 05:50:24', 'Beyond the negative impact of our smartphones on our attention spans lie other harms. These negatives include anxiety, loneliness and a tendency to take extreme stances. Cal Newport says that by jettisoning all but the most essential digital tools for a month, not only can we learn “deep work”, we can also build more fulfilling social &amp; family lives.\n\n“Facebook is the new cigarettes…You know, it’s addictive. It’s not good for you. There’s people trying to get you to use it that even you don’t understand what’s going on. The government needs to step in. The government needs to really regulate what’s happening,” – Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce on CNBC (see <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/salesforce-ceo-marc-benioff-facebook-is-the-new-cigarettes.html/rel=\">https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/14/salesforce-ceo-marc-benioff-facebook-is-the-new-cigarettes.html</a>\n)\n\nThe route to professional success is paved with…deep work\nIt is fashionable these days to highlight social media stars who are apparently minting millions. Such people - whose cooking/ cosmetic make-up/ sports/ fashion design skills are so well honed that they – are deemed to have cut free of the conventional constraints imposed by old media and conventional corporate constructs. Hence by the time they are in their early twenties, these new age stars appear to have hit the jackpot of social media success.\n\nThis narrative does not hold up to rational analysis. For every Kim Kardashian there are millions of other youngsters who are doing their thing on social media for next to no reward. For every celebrity chef on social media there a billions of others cooking grub for no return. Of course, this is no different than what happens in the conventional world – for every Virat Kohli there are millions of cricketers who never get to play for the Indian cricket team.\n\nIn ‘Deep Work’ (2016), Cal Newport says that the free market – on a global scale - rewards people who master hard skills (eg. the ability to write high quality prose in the English language) and then produce consistently at an elite level (eg. writing Harry Potter novels which is what JK Rowling did to rise from poverty to become a dollar billionaire).\n\nNewport points out that Rowling habitually locks herself up in a hotel in downtown Edinburgh when she is working on her novels. In a similar vein, he highlights that the young Bill Gates worked non-stop for two months to produce the first version of the programming language, BASIC. During this period of frenetic programming to write the code that would ultimately form the foundation of Microsoft’s dominant operating system, Gates would fall asleep in front of his computer whilst coding. He would then wake up an hour later and continue coding (for a short video on ‘Deep Work’ watch: <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD7dXfdDPfg/rel=\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZD7dXfdDPfg</a>\n).\n\nIn contrast, the vast majority of the cooking, sports, politics and make-up videos on social media are easy to replicate. In fact, that is exactly what millions of teenagers around the world – including my children – are doing. That is an interesting hobby for them to have but it is unlikely to be the path they take to build their name &amp; fame.\n\nEven if you believe that there are other drivers to JK Rowling and Bill Gates’ success, it is hard to rebut Newport’s key point: deep work i.e. “professional activities performed in a state of distraction-free concentration that push your cognitive capabilities to their limit” creates value, improves your skills and helps you create output which is hard to replicate.\n\nEven more interestingly, as an increasing percentage of people find their attention and their cognition fragmented by digital media and, specifically, by smartphones, “the ability to perform deep work is becoming increasingly rare at exactly the same time it is becoming increasingly valuable in our economy. As a consequence, the few who cultivate this skill, and then make it the core of their working life, will thrive.”\n\nAlongside several others like Marc Benioff (see quote at the beginning of this note) and Kanye West, Newport believes that smartphones and social media are causing deep-seated psychological damage. Newport’s recent book, ‘Digital Minimalism’ (2019), elaborates on this point more extensively. Beyond the obvious distraction caused by checking your phone 85 times a day and spending three hours of screentime per day (stats of the average phone user in the United States), Newport highlights more insidious harms caused by smartphones:\n\nLoneliness: Citing research conducted by psychologist Matthew Lieberman – author of ‘Social: Why our brains are wired to connect’ (2013) – Newport says “our brains adapted to automatically practice social thinking during any moments of cognitive downtime, and it’s this practice that helps us become really interested in our social world”. Basically, our brains are wired to be social – to read other people’s emotions, their minds, their feelings and then to connect with them and interact with them.\nSmartphones and social media are damaging our ability to cognitively connect with the world around us in two ways: (a) by reducing the time available for such interactions because of amount of the time we spend on our smartphones; and (b) reducing the need to have such interactions by persuading us that we can interact with our friends, our colleagues and our suppliers on the phone rather than actually talking to them.\nNewport says, ‘The loss of social connection…turns out to trigger the same system as physical pain…’What is the result of this? Brian Primack from the University of Pittsburgh showed in an article which appeared in July 2017 in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine that “…the more someone used social media, the more likely they were to be lonely. Indeed, someone in the highest quartile of social media use was three times more likely to be lonelier than someone in the lowest quartile.”\n\nExtremism: Around the world, in large and seemingly mature democracies, the political discourse seems to be becoming increasingly polarised. Americans saw this in to the run up to Trump’s election, Britons saw this in the run-up to Brexit and Indians see this whenever a General Election is around the corner. The way social media is designed, says Newport, contributes to this: “….online discussions seem to accelerate people’s shift towards emotionally charged and draining extremes. The techno-philosopher Jaron Lanier convincingly argues that the primacy of anger and outrage online is, in some sense, an unavoidable feature of the medium: In an open marketplace for attention, darker emotions attract more eyeballs than positive and constructive thoughts. For heavy internet users, repeated interaction with this darkness can become a source of draining negativity – a steep price that many don’t even realize they’re paying…”\nAnxiety: All of us need peace and solitude to do high quality work on difficult, complex subjects. The digital world robs us of this peace and solitude, not just in our offices, not just in our homes but also when we are at the playground with our kids, when we are on holiday and when we are relaxing with friends. Newport says, “Eliminating solitude also introduces new negative repercussions that we’re only now beginning to understand. A good way to investigate a behaviour’s effect is to study a population that pushes the behaviour to an extreme…these extremes are readily apparent among young people born after 1995…a 2015 study by Common Sense Media found that teenagers were consuming media….nine hours per day on average…If persistent solitude deprivation causes problems, we should see them show up here first...\n…San Diego University psychology professor Jean Twenge…is one of the world’s foremost experts on generational differences in American youth. As Twenge notes in her September 2017 article for the Atlantic, she has been studying these trends for over twenty-five years. But starting around 2012, she noticed a shift in the measurements of teenager emotional states…Young people born between 1995 and 2012, a group Twenge calls “iGen”, exhibited remarkable differences as compared to the Millennials that preceded them…”Rates of teen depression and suicide have skyrocketed,” Twenge writes…“It’s not an exaggeration to describe iGen as being on the brink of the worst mental-health crisis in decades.”…”Much of this deterioration can be traced to their phones,” Twenge concludes.”\n\nAs you would expect given how powerful the social media giants are, the negative commentary cited above has been countered by other psychologists who claim that the dangers of social media are being overstated. Says Jeff Hancock, a psychologist who runs the Social Media Lab at Stanford University, “Using social media is essentially a trade-off…You get very small but significant advantages for your well-being that come with very small but statistically significant costs.”\n\nThe website, Scientific American, summarised the results from Hancock’s research as: “Hancock and his team found that more social media use was associated slightly with higher depression and anxiety (though not loneliness) and more strongly associated with relationship benefits (though not eudaemonic or hedonic well-being). (The largest effect, at 0.20, was the benefit of stronger relationships.) He and his colleagues also found that active rather than passive use was positively associated with well-being.” (Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/social-media-has-not-destroyed-a-generation/)\n\nWhilst the debate on exactly how damaging social media is continues, it is difficult to argue with the point that any form of distraction when you are trying to do high quality work reduces your effectiveness. So, how can we minimise such distractions?\n\n<strong>The remedy: digital detox</strong>\nThanks to the success of ‘Deep Work’, Newport’s prescriptions for creating 90 minute slots for solid, uninterrupted work (without internet or emails or colleagues disturbing you) are now well known. Newport says that you should begin by trying to do this for an hour each day and then gradually build up to four hours deep work every day. As you do so, you will develop myelin – a white tissue which develops around neurons – in the relevant areas of your brain. This allows your brain cells to fire faster and cleaner. Effectively, you are upgrading your brain and this should allow you to come up with new ideas and solutions quicker.\n\nBut you can only do this if you get rid of your craving for social media, for text messaging, for constantly checking your emails and answering phone calls through the day. How can we break all these nasty habits which we have acquired from years of shallow work?\n\nNewport’s book ‘Digital Minimalism’ advocates what it says on the tin i.e. he asks you to first quit social media (watch <a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E7hkPZ-HTk/rel=\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3E7hkPZ-HTk</a>) and then undergo a form of digital detox wherein for a month you abandon all forms of optional digital media (basically, abandon everything which is not essential for your family’s life safety &amp; wellbeing). Since most of us are totally hooked to our phones, Newport gives us a few tips on how we can get ready of our one month digital sabbatical:\n<ol>\n 	<li>Build up your social life: Before you begin your digital detox, you need understand how you will fill the void left by digital media in your life. For many people compulsive phone use fills up the void created by a well-developed social &amp; family life. The itinerant life of the typical Indian professional – wherein almost every other year she moves cities – makes it even harder to build relationships in the local community. If you are such an individual – and truth be told, many of us are – you need to plan in advance which classes or community groups you will join or activities you will do with your family in the time freed up during your digital detox.\nPartial phone deprivation: During weekdays, start leaving your phone behind on your desk when you go for meetings or when you go for your lunch break. On holidays, start leaving your phone at home when you go our dinner or for a movie or – better still – for a long walk in the park. As you do this you will gradually get accustomed to staying away from your phone. That in turn will make you less prone to picking up your phone and peering at it repeatedly.\nPut your phone on DND: Even when you are with your phone, learn to put in on ‘Do Not Disturb’ (DND) mode so that you don’t get notifications for anything and you don’t get incoming calls. You can adjust your DND settings such that near and dear ones can reach you but no one else can. Then in specific chunks of time which you have set aside each day – ideally during your evening commute – get your phone calls done.\nScheduled digital dosing: As with your phone calls, so with your use of the internet, social media and text messaging - have pre-scheduled time slots each day in which you access the internet and do your emailing and text messaging. For the rest of the day, stay away from the internet and from messaging. If through the day you keep responding to every message which crops up on your screen you are giving yourself no chance to do deep work which also means that you are giving yourself no chance to develop your Myelin.\nDigital downtime every evening: When you are done with work for the day, try to shut down for the day completely. So no emailing, text messaging and internet surfing once you have shut shop for the day. That necessarily implies that you: (a) focus on your family and your social relationships and yourself after you have wound up work for the day; and (b) have a clear plan for how you will spend your evening. (If you don’t have a plan the chances are that you will drift back to digital media for entertainment.)\nRemove social media apps &amp; use website versions: Social media platforms like Facebook and LinkedIn have a multitude of uses and whilst some of these features have become addictive for millions of users (this seems to be particularly true for Facebook), you might not want to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Hence, one way to hold on to the best features of these platforms (eg. the ability to find like minded people, the ability to recruit the right people or find the right suppliers, etc) whilst jettisoning the worst (eg. notifications, ‘likes’) is to delete these apps from your phone and install the website versions on your desktop. You will find that the time it takes to boot up your desktop, then open your web browser and then fire up Facebook kills a big part of the impulse-driven behaviour which characterizes our use of social media.\nEffectively what Newport is saying is that we need to try to build a routine for our workday wherein internet use takes place within pre-specified time slots and ditto for phone calling. By implication the rest of the schedule is freed up for deep work. In our 17th May 2019 blog on how great men &amp; women have built their working days over the past four hundred years, we described how they had created a similar daily routine albeit before the arrival of the shiny smartphones: see http://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-the-working-habits-of-great-minds/</li>\n</ol>\nI have implemented bullets 2, 5 and 6. With a bit of help from my better half, I might be able to implement 1 and 5. Then I will be ready for Newport’s digital detox. When I begin my one month digital detox, Newport warns that the first two weeks will be painful and there are no tips or tricks that can mitigate that pain. But as I consciously pull back from all optional forms of digital media over the course of the month, I will find that things will settle down. Newport assures me that my friends and clients won’t abandon me. Gradually, I will find that the quantum and quality of interactions with friends &amp; family improving. I will become less stressed, less anxious and less fidgety. After a month of full digital detox, I can then add back a small number of carefully chosen online activities that I believe will provide massive benefit to me for activities or goals which you deeply value eg. posting my blogs on LinkedIn (using the website version of LinkedIn), visiting the 3 websites where I find high quality commentary on Finance, Economics and Psychology and reading my email.\n\nInvestment implications\nAmongst my colleagues, I can see a wide spectrum of behaviours in terms of smartphone usage. Two of my colleagues are super disciplined in terms of phone and internet use and I have seen for over a year now that these two guys have no trouble working in a focused manner for 90 minute intervals. Unsurprisingly, these two guys produce outstanding investment insights.\n\nAt the other end of the spectrum tend to be bright young interns who work for us – they belong to the iPhone generation and I can see that they struggle to read an annual report in one sitting. It takes them a few months before their minds settle down, their phones switch off and they start learning that concentrating for long periods of time is 50% of the skill required to be an analyst.\n\nAs I see the youngsters in our team grow up, I remember my teenage years when my dad used to sit next to me as I struggled with algebra &amp; calculus. He would lock the door of my room, sit himself down next to my desk and say the same thing again and again: “Concentrate….concentrate…learn to concentrate”. I used to hate my dad for doing this but with the benefit of hindsight I realise that his years in IIT Kharagpur had taught him the value of deep work. I needed Cal Newport in order to learn the same lesson.\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\nSaurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.', 'Smartphones: How They Damage You & How You Can Fight Back', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2350-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:50:24', '2019-11-13 05:50:24', '', 2350, 'https://marcellus.in/2350-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2367, 1, '2019-11-13 05:50:38', '2019-11-13 05:50:38', 'Esquel, a Chinese company, is a leading manufacturer of shirts for Western brands like Hugo Boss and Tommy Hilfiger and also for its own brand, PYE. The firm has 56,000 employees but is constantly focusing on mechanising tasks in the shirt making process so that its employees can focus on more value added work.\r\nThe garment supply chain is brutally competitive. <em>“The work is repetitive; piece work makes it all the more soul-sapping. It is relatively hard to automate soft materials like textiles; making Esquel’s shirts involves up to 65 fiddly sub-processes, such as stitching sleeves and cuffs. As soon as labour costs rise, textile and garment factories tend to fly away, seeking cheaper fingers to work to the bone, be they in Bangladesh or Ethiopia. Esquel plans instead to keep lots of its work in China…even if American tariffs rise further, many Chinese companies are betting heavily on automation to remain competitive. In 2017 China’s installations of industrial robots rose by 59% to 138,000, more than in America and Europe combined. While downplaying its controversial “Made in China 2025” industrial policy, to soothe the fears of the Trump administration, the Chinese government is happy to throw money at existing manufacturing industries in order to help them tool up. That will help keep the robot revolution running.</em>\r\n<em>Walk through Esquel’s biggest factory in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta and it is clear that even here the robots are coming. The hundreds of workers sitting, heads down, in pink caps are a sight to behold. They are also outnumbered by machines. On some lines, robotic arms swish, trimming collar bottoms and pressing plackets. The devices do fiddly jobs like making sure that tiny pearl-coloured buttons for Banana Republic have the word Banana on the top. Israeli cameras, adapted from military devices, use artificial intelligence to scan for flaws in the fabric, automating one of the most mind-numbing of jobs.</em>\r\n<em>Some workers have been displaced but productivity has improved, keeping the firm’s profits stable despite a tripling since 2006 of its average monthly wage in China, to 4,500 yuan ($650)…</em> <em>Despite the frictions, Marjorie Yang, Esquel’s chairman, is in effect doubling down on China. She touts a 2bn yuan investment in a new factory in Guilin, a picturesque region, including a yarn-spinning division so high-tech that visitors are not allowed to walk the floors. So far Esquel’s products have been spared American tariffs. American clients are nervous, so if need be the firm could shift some production to its factories outside China, such as in Mauritius, while moving other lines back home.”</em>', 'Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1109-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:50:38', '2019-11-13 05:50:38', '', 1109, 'https://marcellus.in/1109-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2368, 1, '2019-11-13 05:51:43', '2019-11-13 05:51:43', 'From patience in maths to patience in life and on the cricket field, this outstanding piece on Cheteshwar Pujara has to be read and savoured. The author, Sandeep Dwiwedi, grew up with Pujara in the Indian Railways compound in Rajkot. He saw the grind that the now legendary test batsman’s parents – Arvind and Rina – had to go through to support Pujara’s training. Arvind, an Railway employee, was also Cheteshwar’s coach and from the time his son was 8, Arvind Pujara taught him to play straight in the local playground under a neem tree.\r\nFather and son lost their biggest supporter when in the mid-2000s, Rina Pujara, passed away after battling cancer. And yet, even as coach’s around India kept berating Cheteshwar his slow strike rate, father &amp; son maintained their faith in playing with the straight bat.\r\nAs Cheteshwar piled up the runs in domestic cricket, the legend whose shoes he would go on to fill spotted him playing a match for Indian Oil in Bangalore. <em>“Cheteshwar was in Bangalore playing for his long-time employers, Indian Oil Company, in a corporate tournament. As usual he was scoring heavily. He had scored a couple of hundreds and was nearing the third. That’s when Rahul Dravid, the then India captain, turned up at the ground for a jog. The batsman on the centre square made him curious. He asked the scorer. True to his profession he also gave the run details of the boy who would go on to fill Dravid’s shoes as India’s reliable No.3.</em>\r\n<em>It was a Saurashtra Cricket Association official who told Arvind about this. “From the stadium, he called Niranjanbhai (BCCI old hand and SCA secretary). He told him ‘take care of this boy’,” recalls Arvind. Later when Dravid came to Rajkot for a Ranji game, he would meet Cheteshwar again. Standing in the slips, he had a closer and longer look at the Saurashtra No.5. “After the game, he called the Saurashtra captain and told him that Cheteshwar should bat up the order. This shows his class,” says Arvind. Years later, Pujara would make his Test debut and he would bat at No. 5 behind Dravid and Tendulkar.”</em>\r\nThe rest is history. A great cricketer’s achievements captured in the appropriate context by the country’s best newspaper.', 'I saw the making of Cheteshwar Pujara', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1107-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:51:43', '2019-11-13 05:51:43', '', 1107, 'https://marcellus.in/1107-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2369, 1, '2019-11-13 05:52:45', '2019-11-13 05:52:45', 'The single most frequently asked question to a stock market professional is “where do you think the markets are headed?”. A seemingly more pertinent question asked by clients is “shouldn’t we wait for xyz event (election, rate hike, missile launch, etc) for a better entry point?” Our own experience as market participants have made us believe that it is increasingly impossible to predict market movements, especially in the short run given the rise and rise of algos, HFTs, ETFs, etc. This piece in the FT gives some facts and nuggets to drive home the point.\r\n<em>“Philippe Jabre was the quintessential swashbuckling trader, slicing his way through markets first at GLG Partners and then an eponymous hedge fund he founded in 2007 — at the time one of the industry’s biggest-ever launches. But in December he fell on his sword, closing Jabre Capital after racking up huge losses. The fault, he said, was machines.”</em>\r\n<em>“…the volatility in financial markets in December, when US equities suffered their biggest monthly decline since the financial crisis, despite little fundamental economic news”. </em>\r\n<em>“Even hedge fund veterans admit the game has changed. “These ‘algos’ have taken all the rhythm out of the market, and have become extremely confusing to me,” Stanley Druckenmiller, a famed investor and hedge fund manager, recently told an industry TV station.”</em>\r\n<em>“JPMorgan estimates that only about 10 per cent of US equity trading is now done by traditional investors. Other markets remain more human, yet are slowly but surely being transformed.”</em>\r\nBut not everybody has a problem with the machines <em>“But markets have always been tempestuous, and machines make a convenient, faceless bogeyman for fund managers who stumble. Meanwhile, quants point out that they are still only small players compared with the vastness of global markets. “It’s insane,” says Clifford Asness, the founder of AQR Capital Management. “People are missing the forest for the trees. That we trade electronically doesn’t change things, we just deliver the same thing more efficiently . . . It’s just used by pundits and fund managers as an excuse.” </em>\r\nHowever, strong views are forming in Wall Street that SEC should have more control over the algo trades – <em>“Leon Cooperman, the founder of Omega Advisors, has argued that the US Securities and Exchange Commission should investigate and tame the new “wild, wild west environment in the stock market” caused by these volatility-sensitive strategies. </em>\r\n<em>“I think your next guest ought to be somebody from the SEC to explain why they have sat back calmly, quietly, without saying anything and allowing these algorithmic, trend-following models to wreak havoc with what has, up to now, been the best capital market in the world,” he told CNBC in December.”</em>\r\n<em>“We just have to accept that financial markets are nearly fully automated,” he says, “and try to make sure that things don’t get so technologically complex and inter-connected that it’s dangerous to the financial system.”</em>', 'Volatility: how ‘algos’ changed the rhythm of the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1105-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:52:45', '2019-11-13 05:52:45', '', 1105, 'https://marcellus.in/1105-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2370, 1, '2019-11-13 05:56:33', '2019-11-13 05:56:33', 'In this sublime essay, John Plender explains how capitalism has changed in the last 100 years and the implications it has for how companies will be run henceforth. <em>“When Thomas Edison’s General Electric was at its most innovative in the late 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup>century, manager and proprietor were one and the same. Control rights in the corporation at that time were put in the hands of shareholders because they were seen as the bearers of greatest risk and thus entitled to the residual profits after the claims of other stakeholders – customers, employees, creditors, the tax authorities – had been met. In a world where capital was scarce and labour plentiful that made sense.”</em>\r\nPlender then explains how the paradigm outlined above gradually changed as the 20<sup>th</sup> century progressed. “Yet as the shareholder base expanded ownership became dispersed, leading to the divorce between ownership and control identified by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means in the 1930s. Owen Young, the chief executive of General Electric between the wars, declared: <em>‘The stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays with the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.’</em>”\r\nThe next step in the dethroning of the shareholder came in the 1980s with the shareholder value revolution, with CEOs lack Jack Welch (who believed that they, and not capital, were the scare resource) and with academics like Harvard’s Michael Jensen (who said that paying CEOs with equity helps align managers’ interests with that of shareholders). The result of this revolution in thinking was the CEOs like Welch were given financial incentives to push the share price upwards using a variety of means including using dollops of financial leverage. <em>“Under Mr Welch, GE came to derive 40 per cent of its profits from a financial subsidiary, GE Capital. In the event, GE Capital proved to be the group’s Achilles heel. Because it was excessively reliant on short-term wholesale funding, GE was forced under Mr Welch’s successor, Jeff Immelt, to turn to the Federal Reserve in 2008 for funds to bail out the ailing subsidiary.”</em>\r\nPlender says that the time is now ripe for another devaluation in the role of shareholders. <em>“Research has shown that investment is consistently and significantly higher in private rather than broadly identical public companies relative to turnover or profits. The biggest flaw in the shareholder primacy model is that the shareholder is no longer the residual risk-taker in the corporation. Bankruptcy is no great threat to institutional investors running huge, diversified portfolios. Employees are much more at risk, especially where their skills are specific to the firm. Suppliers likewise often have more at risk than shareholders.”</em>\r\nThese forces are likely to result in increased lobbying on Governments to redefine directors’ legal duties to stakeholders other than shareholders. Whilst shareholders are likely to counter such measures with lobbying of their own, it would appear that the way capitalism is evolving in the West, a further relegation in shareholders’ status in the pecking order might not be very far away.', 'Shareholders dethroned as rulers of value', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1103-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:56:33', '2019-11-13 05:56:33', '', 1103, 'https://marcellus.in/1103-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2371, 1, '2019-11-13 05:58:09', '2019-11-13 05:58:09', 'The article reinforces the subject of “Factfulness”, the refreshingly positive and fascinating book by the late Dr Hans Rosling about how we have a tendency to take a predominantly depressing view of the world when in reality it is exactly the opposite – the fact show as much – read Dr Rosling. Matt Ridley, who himself has authored a book on the subject, highlights some typical reasons for our pessimistic behaviour.\r\n\r\n<em>“No matter how persuasive our evidence, we routinely encounter disbelief and even hostility, as if accentuating the positive was callous. People cling to pessimism about the state of the world. John Stuart Mill neatly summarized this tendency as far back as 1828: “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.” It’s cool to be gloomy….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>… Plane crashes have been getting steadily scarcer—2017 was the first year with no commercial passenger plane crashes at all, despite four billion people in the air—but each one now receives vastly more coverage. Many people still consider planes a risky mode of transport…. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>….This is part of what psychologists call the “availability bias,” a quirk of human cognition first noticed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s. People vastly overestimate the frequency of crime, because crime disproportionately dominates the news. But random violence makes the news because it is rare, whereas routine kindness doesn’t make the news because it is so common….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>….But as the historian Lord Macaulay wrote almost two centuries ago, “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So cheer up. The world’s doing better than you think.”</em>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Why people prefer bad news', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1126-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 05:58:09', '2019-11-13 05:58:09', '', 1126, 'https://marcellus.in/1126-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2372, 1, '2019-11-13 06:01:05', '2019-11-13 06:01:05', 'Milk from cows or from soya beans or almonds is passe. The new fad is milk from oats. <em>“The scramble for oat milk is so intense that Oatly, a large Swedish producer, has been forced to delay production of certain products so that it can meet demand in existing markets such as the US and the UK.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“We’re seeing hyper growth in demand,” said Ishen Paran, UK general manager at Oatly, which expected its turnover this year to rise almost 60 per cent to £84m…oat milk sales have outstripped those of almond milk in the past year, while soya milk sales have fallen. The thirst for oat milk has prompted large food groups to try to cash in, with PepsiCo, the owner of Quaker Oats, planning to launch oat milk lines to US consumers next month.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Oat milk retail sales surged almost 50 per cent in the 52 weeks to early August in the US, according to data from consumer data firm Nielsen. That compares with 9 per cent growth in overall plant-based milk and 11 per cent for almond milk.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Oatly is really good with coffee and people like its texture,” said Tom Bailey, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank. Its popularity has been helped by hip US and UK coffee shops, due to its “Barista edition”, designed to froth like cow’s milk.”</em>', 'Oat milk sales surge as more consumers go dairy-free', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1124-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:01:05', '2019-11-13 06:01:05', '', 1124, 'https://marcellus.in/1124-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2373, 1, '2019-11-13 06:04:16', '2019-11-13 06:04:16', 'More of Taleb this week, this one is by Taleb. In his usual scathingly critical style, he has a go at psychologists and their use of IQ as a measure of intelligence with plenty of evidence showing the corelation is non-existent, except that lower IQ levels do prove mental disability.\r\n\r\n<em>“…consider that if someone has mental needs, there will be 100% correlation between performance and IQ tests. But the performance doesn’t correlate as well at higher levels, though the psychologists will think it does.(The statistical spin, as a marketing argument, is that a person with an IQ of 70 cannot prove theorems, which is obvious for a measure of unintelligence — but they fail to reveal how many IQs of 150 are doing menial jobs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…If someone came up with a numerical “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or a physical quantity, you’d find it absurd. But put enough academics w/physics envy on it and it will become an official measure…..</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The argument by psychologists to make IQ useful is of the sort: who would you like to do brain surgery on you/who would you hire in your company/who would you recommend, someone with a 90 IQ or one with 130is …academic. Well, you pick people on task-specific performance, which should include this filtering. In the real world you interview people from their CV (not from some IQ sent to you as in a thought experiment), and, once you have their CV, the 68 IQ fellow is weeded out. So the only think for which IQ can select, the mentally disabled, is already weeded out in real life: he/she can’t have a degree in engineering or medicine. Which explains why IQ is unnecessary and using it is risky because you miss out on the Einsteins and Feynmans.”</em>', 'IQ is largely a pseudoscientific swindle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1120-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:04:16', '2019-11-13 06:04:16', '', 1120, 'https://marcellus.in/1120-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2374, 1, '2019-11-13 06:09:29', '2019-11-13 06:09:29', 'In case you are on those people who spends her waking hours worrying what will happen in the next General Election or some other pressing matter of national import, here is a public policy issue which should make you sit up. The Lok Sabha has passed a Bill which says that when a parent or immediate family is unable to take care of a transgender person, <em>“the competent court shall by an order direct such person to be placed in a rehab centre.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe Bill says that a transgender person needs to get a special identity card and to get such a card they have to follow a two step process. Firstly, they have to meet the District Magistrate who will direct her/him to a screening committee which will physically examine the transgender person. The screening committee will include a psychologist and a government official. Only once the committee classifies a person as “transgender” can he/she access the welfare schemes provided by the Government.\r\n\r\nThen comes step two. <em>“…the second step for registration as a transgender person is surgery (paid for by the state)…the Bill says that only once you surgically change your body will your gender be set right.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe bill says nothing about the civil rights of transgender people such as marriage, civil partnership, property rights, and so on.', 'Bitter Bill – India’s transgender community is going to be policed by a bill which gives the Government the right to examine their bodies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1117-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:09:29', '2019-11-13 06:09:29', '', 1117, 'https://marcellus.in/1117-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2375, 1, '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '“Taleb runs Empirica Capital out of an anonymous concrete office park in the woods on the outskirts of Greenwich, Connecticut…. Empirica follows a very particular investment strategy. It trades options, which is to say that it deals not in stocks and bonds but in the volatility of stocks and bonds… Nassim Taleb and his team at Empirica are quants. But they reject the quant orthodoxy; because they don’t believe that things like the stock market behave in the way that physical phenomena like mortality statistics do. Physical events, whether death rates or poker games, are the predictable function of a limited and stable set of factors, and tend to follow what statisticians call a “normal distribution” — a bell curve. But do the ups and downs of the market follow a bell curve? The economist Eugene Fama once pointed out that if the movement of stock prices followed a normal distribution you’d expect a really big jump — what he specified as a movement five standard deviations from the mean — once every seven thousand years. In fact, jumps of that magnitude happen in the stock market every three or four years, because investors don’t behave with any kind of statistical orderliness….\r\n\r\nIn the summer of 1997, Taleb predicted that hedge finds like Long-Term Capital Management were headed for trouble, because they did not understand this notion of fat tails. Just a year later, L.T.C.M. sold an extraordinary number of longdated indexed options, because its computer models told it that the markets ought to be calming down. And what happened? The Russian government defaulted on its bonds; the markets went crazy; and in a matter of weeks L.T.C.M. was finished. Mark Spitznagel, Taleb’s head trader, says that he recently heard one of the former top executives of L.T.C.M. give a lecture in which he defended the gamble that the fund had made. “What he said was ‘Look, when I drive home every night in the fall I see all these leaves scattered around the base of the trees,’“ Spitznagel recounts. “‘There is a statistical distribution that governs the way they fall, and I can be pretty accurate in figuring out what that distribution is going to be. But one day I came home and the leaves were in little piles. Does that falsify my theory that there are statistical rules governing how leaves fall? No. It was a man-made event.’“ In other words, the Russians, by defaulting on their bonds, did something that they were not supposed to do, a once-in-a-lifetime, rule-breaking event. <strong>But this, to Taleb, is just the point: in the markets, unlike in the physical universe, the rules of the game can be changed. Central banks can decide to default on government-backed securities…</strong>\r\n<strong>Taleb likes to invoke Popper: “No amount of observations of white swans can allow the inference that all swans are white, but the observation of a single black swan is sufficient to refute that conclusion.” Because L.T.C.M. had never seen a black swan in Russia, it thought no Russian black swans existed.</strong>\r\n\r\nTaleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicated entirely on the existence of black swans — on the possibility of some random, unexpected event sweeping the markets. He never sells options, then. He only buys them. He’s never the one who can lose a great deal of money if G.M. stock suddenly plunges. Nor does he ever bet on the market’s moving in one direction or another. That would require Taleb to assume that he understands the market, and he knows that he doesn’t. He doesn’t have Warren Buffett’s confidence. So he buys options on both sides — on the possibility of the market’s moving both up and down. And he doesn’t bet on minor fluctuations in the market. Why bother? If everyone else is vastly underestimating the possibility of rare events, then an option on G.M. at, say, forty dollars is going to be undervalued. So Taleb buys out-of-themoney options by the truckload. He buys them for hundreds of different stocks, and if they expire worthless he simply buys more. Taleb doesn’t even invest in stocks — not for Empirica and not for his own personal account. Buying a stock, unlike buying an option, is a gamble that the future will represent an improved version of the past. And who knows whether that will be true?… Taleb’s hero…is <strong>Karl Popper, who said that you cannot know with certainty that a theory is true; you can only know that it is not true.”</strong>', 'Blowing up – How Nassim Taleb turned the inevitability of disaster into an investment strategy.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1115-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '2019-11-13 06:10:51', '', 1115, 'https://marcellus.in/1115-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2376, 1, '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '20 years ago there was lots of discussion in India about how to attract more private sector investment in infrastructure. Then between 2004-11 India saw a boom in private sector investment in infrastructure. For a variety of reasons that did not go down well with the public and with the banking system. So now again, we have reverted to predominantly Government driven investment in infrastructure.\r\n\r\n<em>“…we got a huge increase from 2003 to 2011: a gain of roughly 10x in nominal rupees. By 2011, there was a stock of roughly Rs.25 trillion rupees of private infrastructure investment projects that were under implementation. After that, private infrastructure projects have receded substantially. We have a decline of Rs.5 trillion in nominal terms. If inflation were taken into account, that is a decline of another 25%.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>How has government infrastructure investment activity fared? This shows a picture of steady growth. In 2011, both private and government projects were at roughly Rs.25 trillion. From there, the private projects have dropped to Rs.20 trillion while the government has gone on to Rs.38 trillion. There is growth in the stock of government infrastructure investment projects under implementation, even after you take out the 25% increase in prices from 2011 till today….What’s the overall picture of infrastructure investment? Putting the two together…the private sector is losing ground and government infrastructure projects are gaining ground.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Against this backdrop, Ajay Shah reiterates the need to attract private sector money to infrastructure. “The private sector will use capital more effectively, deliver a better incremental capital-output ratio, and take care of assets better. Conversely, public sector domination of infrastructure investment is going to deliver reduced bang for the buck.….In the first wave of pushing private sector participation, we did not adequately understand that private participation in infrastructure requires complex institutional machinery. The government’s role in infrastructure is in three parts: Planning, Contracting and Regulating. Clear structures needed to be established for each of these three pillars. Mechanisms were required for resolving disputes and protecting cashflows from user charges. We needed to keep our eye on the prize: the projects that come out of all the complexities of the early stage and make it into the listed space, as boring utilities who just collect user charges and do O&amp;M. With the benefit of hindsight, we went about private sector investment in infrastructure in a slipshod manner.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In the recent period, instead of fixing these institutional complexities, there has been an excessive willingness to give up on private sector participation and make do with muscular State-led investment. It feels like an entire generation of institutional memory, about the problems of public sector infrastructure investment, has been lost. We are now running a Chinese-style risk of large investments going in with low returns in terms of incremental GDP per unit investment.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Retreat from private infrastructure projects', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1138-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '2019-11-13 06:12:00', '', 1138, 'https://marcellus.in/1138-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2377, 1, '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '<em>“In India, approximately 74,000 women die from cervical cancer every year, accounting for 1/3rd of the burden of cervical cancer deaths globally. Less than 10,000 pathologists must service a population of 1.3 billion people…Aindra Systems, a tech start-up from India, has developed an innovative workaround. Leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to provide point-of-care cervical cancer detection, Aindra is demonstrating how strategic use of automated technologies has the potential to democratize access to quality care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Aindra’s end-to-end diagnostic platform was developed using human-centered design, an iterative approach to design to ensure a final product that meets the needs and circumstances of end-users. Biological samples are stained by an autostainer, converted into a digital image, then analyzed by AI algorithms to differentiate between cancerous cells and healthy cells. This three-part process is done onsite at a clinic, eliminating the need for the tedious process of manual staining and the transport of large batches of samples to distant laboratories. As a result, a patient is told if they have cancerous lesions within 1-2 hours instead of 5-6 weeks.”</em>', 'ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE / MACHINE LEARNING – Powerful Predictors: Diagnosing Cancer in India Using AI', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1136-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '2019-11-13 06:13:16', '', 1136, 'https://marcellus.in/1136-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2378, 1, '2019-11-13 06:14:22', '2019-11-13 06:14:22', 'The fishing grounds are shifting northward as water temperatures rise, forcing crews to retool their boats and rework their businesses. This WSJ article says:\r\n\r\n<em>“Aboard the Stanley K and the Oracle, two 58-foot vessels, Buck Laukitis and his crews chase halibut across the Bering Sea worth $5 a pound at the docks. As sea temperatures rise, and Arctic ice retreats the fish appear to be avoiding warming waters, migrating northward where they cost more to reach, federal fisheries biologists say. Twice this past fall, the Oracle sailed 800 miles north from the seaport of Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands, before finding the halibut that a decade ago lived several hundred miles closer to home. Each voyage took twice as long and yielded half as many fish. “It keeps me up at night,” he says. “I woke up at three in the morning. I couldn’t sleep thinking about where the fish are going.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Across the continent from Mr. Laukitis in Rhode Island, black sea bass have moved in with the warming waters. The bulk once lived roughly 700 miles south off North Carolina. Now they are a staple catch in Point Judith, R.I., along with the summer flounder that also have begun appearing. […] The impact of climate change has a price, and for fishing-boat owners in sea ports, that means following the catch. The northward movement of fish around the world is disrupting some fishing grounds and revitalizing others — and fishing businesses are trying to adapt their operations…Higher temperatures mean less dissolved oxygen in the water while increasing a fish’s demand for oxygen by speeding up its metabolism. Warming water may also favor predators or drive off species on which commercial fish feed. All told, warming ocean temperatures are pushing hundreds of marine species outside of their traditional ranges, ocean scientists say.”</em>', 'Climate Change Drives Fish Into New Waters, Remaking an Industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1134-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:14:22', '2019-11-13 06:14:22', '', 1134, 'https://marcellus.in/1134-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2379, 1, '2019-11-13 06:16:18', '2019-11-13 06:16:18', 'A paradoxical attempt by Brian Resnick to bat for intellectual humility especially among social scientists backed by research from….social scientists/psychologists. <em>“…We need more intellectual humility for two reasons. One is that our culture promotes and rewards overconfidence and arrogance (think Trump and Theranos, or the advice your career counselor gave you when going into job interviews). At the same time, when we are wrong — out of ignorance or error — and realize it, our culture doesn’t make it easy to admit it. Humbling moments too easily can turn into moments of humiliation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe first step towards building intellectual humility is the appreciation of our cognitive blind spots – much has been written about this in recent years, yet there isn’t a simple practical guide for it. <em>“..it’s a method of thinking. It’s about entertaining the possibility that you may be wrong and being open to learning from the experience of others….it is about being actively curious about your blind spots. One illustration is in the ideal of the scientific method, where a scientist actively works against her own hypothesis, attempting to rule out any other alternative explanations for a phenomenon before settling on a conclusion. It’s about asking: What am I missing here?”</em>\r\n\r\nThe second step is to give up the notion that owning up to our mistakes undermines our credibility among peers, in society, etc when the reality is exactly the opposite.\r\n<em>“Many of us fear we’ll be seen as less competent, less trustworthy, if we admit wrongness. Even when we can see our own errors — which, as outlined above, is not easy to do — we’re hesitant to admit it.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But turns out this assumption is <a href=\"https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0143723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">false</a>. As <a href=\"https://www.utep.edu/liberalarts/psychology/people/adam-k-fetterman.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Adam Fetterman</a>, a social psychologist at the University of Texas El Paso, has found in a <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191886918305336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">few studies</a>, wrongness admission isn’t usually judged harshly. “When we do see someone admit that they are wrong, the wrongness admitter is seen as more communal, more friendly,” he says. It’s almost never the case, in his studies, “that when you admit you’re wrong, people think you are less competent.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Even among scientists — people who ought to question everything — intellectual humility is hard. In some cases, researchers have refused to concede their original conclusions despite the <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">unveiling of new evidence</a>. (One famous psychologist under fire recently told me <a href=\"https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/6/28/17509470/stanford-prison-experiment-zimbardo-interview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">angrily</a>, “I will stand by that conclusion for the rest of my life, no matter what anyone says.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Psychologists are human. When they reach a conclusion, it becomes hard to see things another way. Plus, the incentives for a successful career in science push researchers to publish as many positive findings as possible.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are two solutions — among many — to make psychological science more humble, and I think we can learn from them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One is that humility needs to be built into the standard practices of the science. And that happens through transparency. It’s becoming more commonplace for scientists to preregister — i.e., commit to — a study design before even embarking on an experiment. That way, it’s harder for them to deviate from the plan and cherry-pick results. It also makes sure all data is open and accessible to anyone who wants to conduct a reanalysis.</em>\r\n<em>That “sort of builds humility into the structure of the scientific enterprise,” Chabris says. “We’re not all-knowing and all-seeing and perfect at our jobs, so we put [the data] out there for other people to check out, to improve upon it, come up with new ideas from and so on.” To be more intellectually humble, we need to be more transparent about our knowledge. We need to show others what we know and what we don’t.</em>\r\n<em>And two, there needs to be more celebration of failure, and a culture that accepts it. That includes building safe places for people to admit they were wrong, like the <a href=\"https://lossofconfidence.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Loss of Confidence</a> Project.”</em>', 'Intellectual humility – the importance of knowing you might be wrong', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1132-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:16:18', '2019-11-13 06:16:18', '', 1132, 'https://marcellus.in/1132-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2380, 1, '2019-11-13 06:19:14', '2019-11-13 06:19:14', 'A fairly balanced and constructive debate around the need for ‘purposeful capitalism’, that can even carry the most ardent of Friedman’s followers. <em>“Milton Friedman’s argument that for a company to pursue anything other than (legal) profit would be “pure and unadulterated socialism””</em> effectively underpinned the unbridled rise of capitalism over the last 50yrs. Of late though, criticisms have emerged from all quarters:\r\n\r\n<em>“The pursuit of returns to companies’ owners at the expense of other stakeholders has undoubtedly led to greater profits, generating enormous wealth for investors and the executives whose rewards have been increasingly tied to shareholder returns. But it has come at a cost to employees, customers and the environment; incentivised boards to pay less tax; diverted cash to earnings-flattering share buybacks rather than investment; and — among those outside the privileged club of equity owners — eroded the trust on which companies ultimately depend.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>A decade after the financial crisis shook voters’ confidence in capitalism, the challenges to Friedman’s model have been gathering momentum. Now — even as US President Donald Trump pursues stereotypically “pro-business” policies such as cutting corporate taxes and regulations — they are starting to converge into something that looks like a new worldview, shared by leading executives and</em>\r\n<em>investors and shaped by an unlikely alliance of consumers, employees, campaigners, academics and regulators. Together, they could break a consensus that has governed business for two generations and offer a new model for capitalism based on the watchwords of purpose, inclusion and sustainability.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe arguments for change go beyond altruism – as Colin Mayer, the economist and author of the new book ‘Prosperity’ puts it – <em>“Elevating shareholders’ interests above those of employees, the environment or communities may have made sense when financial capital was scarce,….but now finance is abundant while human, natural and social capital are in short supply.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For this capitalist reformation to succeed, however, it will have to prove it has more substance than spin, survive the market’s down cycles and persuade a public whose faith in corporate and institutional elites remains fragile.”</em>\r\n\r\nLike Friedman championed the cause of capitalism, support for change is emerging from the very beneficiaries of capitalism – the bosses of the likes of Blackrock, Unilever, etc\r\n\r\n<em>“If Friedman’s article provided the intellectual underpinning for the idea that a public company’s only social responsibility was to increase its profits, the catalytic text for the new era of purposeful capitalism was a letter sent to chief executives a year ago by BlackRock’s Larry Fink, who with $6.3tn of assets under management counts as the biggest investor of them all.”</em>\r\nFink wrote <em>“With governments failing to prepare for the future, people were looking to companies to deliver not only financial performance, but a positive contribution to society, benefiting customers and communities as well as shareholders. Without a social purpose, companies fail to make the investments in employees, innovation and capital expenditures needed for long-term growth — and above-par returns to the likes of BlackRock.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Mayer’s manifesto recasts the company’s place in society, arguing alliteratively that its purpose is “producing profitable solutions to problems of people and planet.” Profit, in other words, flows from the pursuit of a broader social purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“As companies’ self-interest converges with the interests of other stakeholders, those who would improve the world have a chance to get some of the world’s most powerful instruments for change onside. They should grasp the opportunity business’s moral money moment has given them.”</em>', 'Beyond the bottom line: should business put purpose before profit?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1130-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:19:14', '2019-11-13 06:19:14', '', 1130, 'https://marcellus.in/1130-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2381, 1, '2019-11-13 06:21:34', '2019-11-13 06:21:34', 'Maureen Dowd says that the rise of populist politicians like Trump is due to the failure of the American political system and Barack Obama to punish the Wall Street bankers who wrecked the economy and the lives of millions of people in 2008. She says,<em> “We let the corrupt bankers who ravaged our economy roam free with bigger bonuses, more lavish Hamptons houses and fresh risky schemes. The big banks are bigger than ever and prosecution of white-collar crimes is at a 20-year low. And, cherry on the gilded cake, we put white-collar criminals in charge of the country — elevating epic grifters to the presidency and powerful cabinet posts. Reading all the recent stories about the 10th anniversary of the financial crisis, it’s easy to see the neon line leading from Barack Obama’s failure to punish Wall Street scammers to the fact that Republican scammers are now infecting the entire infrastructure of government.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis political failure gave political space to people like Trump and the Tea Party. [We could say that in India in 2013-14, Narendra Modi spotted a similar opportunity.]\r\n\r\n<em>“In his 2016 book, “Listen, Liberal,” Thomas Frank wrote that “the hope drained out of the Obama movement” at the meeting between the fledgling president and Wall Street C.E.O.s in March 2009: “After warning them about ‘the pitchforks’ of an angry public, Obama reassured the frightened bankers that they could count on him to protect them; that he had no intention of restructuring their industry or changing the economic direction of the nation.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe political opportunity created for Trump by the cowardliness of the Democrats has been used by Trump in a very interesting way.\r\n\r\n<em>“Donald Trump scooped up “the forgotten,” promising to punish Wall Street for “getting away with murder,” and pledging to break up the big banks and force bankers to pay higher taxes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But it was just another Trump con. His administration, The Times reported, “has presided over a sharp decline in financial penalties against banks and big companies accused of malfeasance,” sparing corporate wrongdoers billions in fines….Trump’s White House started off like a branch office of Goldman Sachs, as Elizabeth Warren noted. Gary Cohn, Trump’s former economic adviser from Goldman, showed that Wall Street’s arrogance shines bright when he recently told Reuters that borrowers were just as responsible for the 2008 crisis as lenders.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Who broke the law?” Cohn asked, adding: “Was the waitress in Las Vegas who had six houses leveraged at 100 percent with no income, was she reckless and stupid? Or was the banker reckless and stupid?””</em>\r\n\r\nWe don’t think it is an exaggeration to say that the continuing failure of democratic politics in countries like USA and India to deliver even what looks like a semblance of justice opens the door for right wing fascists to enter mainstream politics.', 'Too rich to jail', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1128-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:21:34', '2019-11-13 06:21:34', '', 1128, 'https://marcellus.in/1128-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2382, 1, '2019-11-13 06:23:06', '2019-11-13 06:23:06', 'An introspective piece by Gideon Rachman, arguably one of the best commentators on geopolitics. The introspection brings about two key aspects which most commentators might relate to – first, how one or two key guiding ideas underpin most of your opinions as a commentator and second, how one tends to find more success in doomsday predictions compared to your more optimistic forecasts. Not quite the happy thought we would have liked to part 2018 with….\r\n\r\n<em>“If anything, I think my bigger mistakes came when I ditched my habitual pessimism, and tried to look on the bright side. In a column written at the beginning of this year, I suggested that 2018 might see positive change in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Spectacularly wrong. Blinded by optimism, I also predicted that England would win the World Cup. Wrong again. Going further back, I also failed to anticipate the aggressive actions of Russia in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, guessing that the Kremlin would behave more “reasonably”. By contrast, imagining the worst has usually proved to be quite a good strategy. In November 2015, a year before the US presidential election and before Mr Trump had won a single primary, I wrote a column urging readers to take seriously the idea that Mr Trump and Marine Le Pen could be elected as presidents of the US and France. Of course, Ms Le Pen failed. But Mr Trump did indeed make it all the way to the White House. (In case you haven’t noticed). My longstanding predictions of a trade war — reiterated in the FT’s end-of-year predictions for 2018— were also finally vindicated.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'My life as an oracle', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1050-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:23:06', '2019-11-13 06:23:06', '', 1050, 'https://marcellus.in/1050-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2383, 1, '2019-11-13 06:24:43', '2019-11-13 06:24:43', 'John Gapper helps us understand why intelligent, rich people like Isha Ambani and Priyanka Chopra spend so much money on their marriage. For answers he looks at the customs of Native Indian tribes in Canada. These tribes would mark a wedding with something called “Potlatch”.\r\n\r\n<em>“Their display is reminiscent of potlatch, the traditional ceremony of feasting and gift giving among Native Americans, which was banned by Canada in 1885. The winter feast, meaning “gift”, was a way not only of celebrating status and family bonds at events such as weddings, but of keeping the rest of the community close with largesse.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Potlatch could be extravagant, particularly after the arrival of European fur traders and their goods: some chiefs would burn canoes and pieces of shields to show off their wealth. It was compared by the US economist Thorstein Veblen to conspicuous consumption by the Victorian leisure class at balls, to which guests were invited to “witness the consumption of that excess of good things” owned by the host.”</em>\r\n\r\nGapper reminds us that Veblen had told us over a century ago that <em>“It is not sufficient merely to possess wealth or power. [It] must be put in evidence,”</em>\r\n\r\nCombine Potlatch and Veblen’s insights and you can rationalise the Ambani and Chopra weddings and those of other billionaires in China and America.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Ambani wedding shows how globalisation, entertainment and luxury create an even bigger splash. It is part of the shift towards “experiential luxury”, in which the rich covet experiences, such as at the 2013 wedding of the technology billionaire Sean Parker in a Californian redwood forest — guests passed through an imposing iron gate forged with the betrothed couple’s names…Weddings have become ferociously expensive because they involve a heady mix of family and status (as well as being, at least in theory, one-off events that parents feel compelled to make memorable).“</em>', 'Wedding excess has reached giddy new heights', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1047-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:24:43', '2019-11-13 06:24:43', '', 1047, 'https://marcellus.in/1047-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2384, 1, '2019-11-13 06:26:08', '2019-11-13 06:26:08', 'We know that people who exercise are healthier and live longer. What we don’t know is why is there a link between exercise and a longer life. <em>“…for the new study, which was published in November in the Journal of Applied Physiology, researchers at the University of Colorado, Boulder, set out to look at various people’s proteins.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>They first gathered 31 healthy young men and women, about half of whom exercised regularly, while the rest did not. They also recruited an additional group of 16 healthy middle-aged and older men, half of whom were physically active and half of whom were sedentary….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In five of the modules, in fact, levels of certain proteins varied, sometimes substantially, if someone exercised compared to if he or she were sedentary. Many of the differences were apparent both in the younger participants and those in middle age.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Perhaps most important, the researchers also found correlations between the makeup of people’s modules and their health. People who exercised and had similarities in various protein levels also tended to have desirable blood pressures and insulin responses, with the opposite true for the inactive volunteers.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>These data suggest that changes in protein levels are likely to be integral to the complex process by which a workout becomes wellness.”</em>', 'People who exercise have different proteins moving through their bloodstreams than those who are generally sedentary', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1045-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:26:08', '2019-11-13 06:26:08', '', 1045, 'https://marcellus.in/1045-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2385, 1, '2019-11-13 06:27:44', '2019-11-13 06:27:44', 'For the uninitiated, Black Mirror is a futuristic series on Netflix about the dark side of mankind’s advances in technology. In reality, the biggest horror is from the fact that what was considered futuristic in its earlier seasons are already playing out in the real world. But this article is about television’s next step – interactive TV. It is only apt that such an experience is first seen with Black Mirror – just in case you weren’t fascinated enough by the content in the first place. The script of the episode isn’t reality a script but more of a software program written in the programming language “Twine” used for video games suggesting the first step towards convergence of gaming and television (Gaming is already a popularly viewed ‘sport’). It is also no surprise that the producers will ‘use’ the viewer’s choices during the interactive show to customise content, advertising, product placement, etc.\r\n\r\n<em>“Black Mirror: Bandersnatch sits squarely in the dystopian anthology show’s tradition of chilling tech parables. It has elements of horror, science fiction, and ’80s nostalgia. It has British actors you know you know, just can’t remember where you know them from. It has moments you’re not sure you’ve ever seen on TV before. One thing it doesn’t have, though, is a run time. You might watch it in 50 minutes, or it might be closer to 70. Hell, it might take you two hours to watch. Because Bandersnatch isn’t just any episode. It’s an “interactive film”—one you steer as you watch, choosing the way you want the story to unfold.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“It registers your choice via “state tracking,” a technology Netflix developed to accomplish exactly what Brooker and Jones were hoping for, and saves it to be deployed later—in this case, when a television set in the background of a scene plays a commercial for the cereal you chose.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The magic of combinatorial math means that there are technically more than a trillion paths through the story, though in reality the number is much smaller. But “much smaller” is still pretty huge: There are five main endings, with multiple variants of each—though upon reaching an ending, Netflix will also helpfully bring you back to pivotal decision points so that you can ease your FOMO and try the path not travelled”</em>', 'How the Surprise New Interactive Black Mirror Came Together', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1043-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:27:44', '2019-11-13 06:27:44', '', 1043, 'https://marcellus.in/1043-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2386, 1, '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '<hr />\r\n\r\nThis year McKinsey’s annual retreat for its busy consultants was in Kashgar in China, a country which McKinsey, like many other MNCs, believes is important for its future. <em>“About four miles from where the McKinsey consultants discussed their work, which includes advising some of China’s most important state-owned companies, a sprawling internment camp had sprung up to hold thousands of ethnic Uighurs — part of a vast archipelago of indoctrination camps where the Chinese government has locked up as many as one million people. One week before the McKinsey event, a United Nations committee had denounced the mass detentions and urged China to stop….For a quarter-century, the company has joined many American corporations in helping stoke China’s transition from an economic laggard to the world’s second-largest economy. But as China’s growth presents a muscular challenge to American dominance, Washington has become increasingly critical of some of Beijing’s signature policies, including the ones McKinsey has helped advance.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, China isn’t the only authoritarian regime which can pride itself on being a McKinsey client.\r\n\r\n<em>“…clients have included Saudi Arabia’s absolute monarchy, Turkey under the autocratic leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and corruption-plagued governments in countries like South Africa. In Ukraine, McKinsey and Paul Manafort — President Trump’s campaign chairman, later convicted of financial fraud — were paid by the same oligarch to help burnish the image of a disgraced presidential candidate, Viktor F. Yanukovych, recasting him as a reformer….Inside Russia itself, McKinsey has worked with Kremlin-linked companies…In Malaysia, the company laid out the case for one of Asia’s most corrupt leaders to pursue billions of dollars from China at a time when he was suspected of funneling vast sums of public money into his own pocket, drawing tens of thousands into the streets to protest against him.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe NYT article highlights how projects/authoritiarian leaders advised by McKinsey often get into trouble (we are putting it politely; the article is less polite). Here is an example:\r\n\r\n<em>“In a confidential PowerPoint report, McKinsey told Malaysian officials that the rail line could increase economic growth in parts of the country by as much as 1.5 percent. It was a figure that the prime minister at the time, Najib Razak, who now has been charged with corruption, liked to cite. In bullet points, McKinsey also said the project would help improve ties with China — “build the nation-to-nation relationship” — because of its importance in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. And McKinsey endorsed the idea of heavy borrowing from China, referring to it as a “game changer” elsewhere in the region.”</em>\r\n\r\nHopefully, Indian politicians – who often use McKinsey to prop up their reformist credentials – will read the NYT article.', 'How McKinsey has helped raise the stature of authoritarian Governments?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1041-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '2019-11-13 06:29:02', '', 1041, 'https://marcellus.in/1041-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2387, 1, '2019-11-13 06:30:36', '2019-11-13 06:30:36', 'In case you have not heard about Nate Silver, here is the bluffer’s guide. <em>“Nate Silver is the co-founder of FiveThirtyEight. A massively popular data focused blog that gained fame for its accuracy predicting the outcomes for the U.S. elections in 2008. Silver generates predictions using a clever poll aggregating technique which accounts for biases, such as pollsters who only call people with landlines.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe other protagonist in our story, Nassim Taleb, is a rockstar author, a successful options trader and generally a smart, outspoken guy.\r\n\r\nThe twist in the tale is that Taleb has announced that FiveThirtyEight does not know how to forecast elections. This announcement has triggered a two year Twitter war between Silver and Taleb. We can learn a lot about forecasting from this debate.\r\n\r\n<em>“The primary source of controversy and confusion surrounding FiveThirtyEight’s predictions is that they are ‘probabilistic.’ Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or loser but instead report a likelihood. Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates (sometimes with model implied error), well in advance of the event…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Their forecast process is to build a quantitative replica of a system with expert knowledge (elections, sporting events, etc.) then run a Monte Carlo simulation. If the model closely represents the real-world, the simulation averages can be reliably used for probabilistic statements. So what FiveThirtyEight is actually saying is:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>x% of the time our Monte Carlo simulation resulted in this particular outcome</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong in some way. This type of model building allows for some amount of subjectivity in construction. For example, Silver has said on numerous occasions that other competitive models do not correctly incorporate correlation. When describing modeling approaches, he also makes clear that they tune outcomes (like artificially increasing variance based on the time until an event or similar adjustments). This creates an infinitely recursive debate as to whose model is the ‘best’ or most like the real world. Of course, to judge this, you could look at who performed better in the long run. This is where things go off the rails a bit.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Because FiveThirtyEight only predicts probabilities, they do not ever take an absolute stand on an outcome: No ‘skin in the game’ as Taleb would say. This is not, however, something their readers follow suit on. In the public eye, they (FiveThirtyEight) are judged on how many events with forecasted probabilities above and below 50% happened or didn’t respectively (in a binary setting)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The public can be excused for using the 50% rule without asking. For example, in supervised machine learning, a classification model must have a characteristic called a ‘decision boundary.’ This is often decided a priori and is a fundamental part of understanding the quality of the model after it is trained. Above this boundary, the machine believes one thing and below it the opposite (in the binary case)…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If FiveThirtyEight has no stated decision boundary, it can be difficult to know how good their model actually is. The confusion is compounded when they are crowned, and gladly accept it, with platitudes of crystal ball-like precision in 2008 and 2012, due to the implied decision boundary. However, when they are accused of being wrong they fall back to a simple quip: You just don’t understand math and probability….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What is not clear is that there is a factor hidden from the FiveThirtyEight reader. Predictions have two types of uncertainty; aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is concerned with the fundamental system (probability of rolling a six on a standard die). Epistemic uncertainty is concerned with the uncertainty of the system (how many sides does a die have? And what is the probability of rolling a six?). With the latter, you have to guess the game and the outcome; like an election!</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Bespoke models, like FiveThirtyEight’s, only report to the public aleatory uncertainty as it concerns their statistical outputs (inference by Monte Carlo in this case). The trouble is that epistemic uncertainty is very difficult (sometimes impossible) to estimate. For example, why didn’t FiveThirtyEight’s model incorporate, before it happened, a chance that Comey would re-open his investigation into Clintons emails? Instead, this seems to have caused a massive spike in the variation of the prediction. Likely because this event was impossible to forecast….I think this is what has Taleb up in arms. The blog feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis (though it may very well be). If a prediction does not obey some fundamental characteristics, it should not be marketed as a probability. More importantly, a prediction should be judged from the time it is given to the public and not just the moment before the event. A forecaster should be held responsible for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>When viewed this way, it is clear that FiveThirtyEight reports too much noise leading up to an event and not enough signal. This is great for driving users to read long series of related articles on the same topic but not so rigorous to bet your fortune on.”</em>', 'Why you should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1038-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:30:36', '2019-11-13 06:30:36', '', 1038, 'https://marcellus.in/1038-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2388, 1, '2019-11-13 06:31:54', '2019-11-13 06:31:54', 'A video uploaded on Twitter showed a Zomato delivery rider eating the customer’s order before proceeding with his delivery. This lead to Zomato users reacting with rage – ‘how could the rider do this?’ they asked. Predictably, the rider was fired. The author says that the incident highlights the growing disparity in Indian society. The average delivery rider earns Rs 19K per month. The riders earn Rs 60 per ride and then with that money <em>“Riders also have to bear all the expenses for fuel, and pay out of their own pocket for any damaged food items.”</em> The typical order he delivers is north of Rs 700, implying that the typical order is out of his reach financially. Furthermore, given how unsafe India’s roads, these riders don’t exactly have a “safe” job – <em>“In August this year, two Zomato delivery executives died in road accidents in Nagpur.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'What Our Elitist Reaction to the Zomato Delivery Man Tells Us About Our Lack of Empathy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1062-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 06:31:54', '2019-11-13 06:31:54', '', 1062, 'https://marcellus.in/1062-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2389, 1, '2019-11-13 09:34:19', '2019-11-13 09:34:19', 'This graphics rich FT article shows why those who live in India (especially those of us who are raising our children in India) need to be alive to the biggest threat to public health in this country.\r\n\r\n“The FT collated NASA satellite data of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key standard for measuring air quality, and mapped it against population density data from the European Commission…those breathing air contaminated with particulates that multiple times over the level deemed same – 10 micrograms of PM2.5 – by the WHO. More than 4.2bn people in Asia are breathing air many times dirtier than the WHO limit…Historically China has grabbed most headlines for poor air quality. But the data on PM2.5 pollution between 1996 and 2016 show India is now in a worse state than its larger neighbour ever was….<strong>At least 140mn people in India are breathing air 10 times or more over the WHO safe limit. A study published in The Lancet estimates that in 2017 air pollution killed 1.24mn India. The 10 most polluted cities in the world are all in northern India….</strong>The biggest causes are vehicular pollution, industrial emissions, thermal power plants, construction dust, waste burning and millions of poor households’ use of cheap and dirty fuels…” [Emphasis in bold is ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'FT big read – India: The most polluted place on earth', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1060-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:34:19', '2019-11-13 09:34:19', '', 1060, 'https://marcellus.in/1060-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2390, 1, '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '&nbsp;\r\n\r\nBlade, a helicopter rides app, is expanding into India, its first non-US market. Blade has done some number crunching which shows what those of us stuck in traffic jams in Mumbai have known all our lives:\r\n\r\n<em>“Constrained by its peninsular geography, Mumbai is India’s most congested city, with about 1500 registered vehicles per kilometre of road. Blade said the traffic problem made it the logical first foreign market for the company.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>To gauge potential demand for the route, “we tend to look at the ratio of the helicopter flight time to the average drive time,” said Will Heyburn Blade’s head of corporate development. “We’ve just never seen metrics like we’ve seen in India. You’re talking about 40-minute helicopter rides that are replacing four-to-eight hour drives.”…One of the company’s first two routes will be the 190km between Mumbai and Shirdi, a pilgrimage site. The second will allow business travellers to….[travel] between Mumbai and industrial hub of Pune, 120km south-east.” </em>[Brackets are ours.]\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Blade sets course for congested cities in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1058-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '2019-11-13 09:35:32', '', 1058, 'https://marcellus.in/1058-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2391, 1, '2019-11-13 09:36:54', '2019-11-13 09:36:54', 'Looking for a New Year’s resolution? Embrace aimlessness, suggests Josh Cohen, a psychoanalyst and professor of modern literary theory at Goldsmiths, University of London. In this piece which is a brief introduction to his upcoming book ‘Not Working: Why We Have to Stop’, Josh explores the paradoxical pleasures of inactivity. Josh starts with the typical schedule for the Christmas break where most of us tend to stuff in so much activity that we end up needing another holiday to recover. He extends this to normal everday life where unrelenting busyness pervades yet the culture looks down upon inactivity or idleness. Josh highlights the need to rekindle the dying art of doing nothing for it remains a key ingredient for imaginative freedom and creativity. Looking forward to carving out time for some daydreaming in 2019.\r\n\r\n<em>“The German-American psychologist Herbert J Freudenberger employed the term “burnout” in 1974 to describe the growing phenomenon of “physical or mental collapse caused by overwork or stress”. Freudenberger observed workers drained of positive commitment to their own role and to those around them, running on empty and depleted of all but the most minimal internal resources. Burnout is the ultimate experience of that impossible bind: a yearning for a state of rest alongside the sense that it cannot be attained, a sense that some demand or anxiety or distraction won’t let us go.So how might we evade this fate, individually and collectively? This question seems especially important for our children, in whom anxiety disorders and feelings of academic and physical inadequacy are reportedly proliferating. If children are under perpetual pressure to achieve learning targets (just as their parents are cajoled into meeting productivity targets), the antidote is surely to cultivate in them — and even in ourselves — the capacity for aimlessness, for letting the mind wander without specific goal or purpose.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'How to avoid burnout this Christmas', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1056-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:36:54', '2019-11-13 09:36:54', '', 1056, 'https://marcellus.in/1056-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2392, 1, '2019-11-13 09:42:01', '2019-11-13 09:42:01', 'A variety of Silicon Valley funded start-ups are bringing a range of innovations to bear upon the US farm sector with the goal of improving technology at the start of the food chain and “enhance the earning power of those working the land.”\r\n\r\nFor example, Farmers Business Network (FBN) founded by Amol Deshpande (ex Kleiner Perkins) and Charles Baron (ex-Google) is a digital platform dubbed as “Google for farmers”. Farmers can log-on and find what seeds will help them make money (the FT article profiles one such happy farmer from South Dakota). FBN farmers pay $600 per annum for data on “efficacy and yields of various seeds, fertilisers and pesticides in different soil types and geographies, helping them make buying and planting decisions.”\r\n\r\nOther agrotech start-ups are innovating elsewhere. David Perry co-founded Indigo, a Boston-based agricultural microbes start-up. “Indigo hunts out naturally occurring organisms such as bacteria and fungi to coat the seeds of grains to aid plant growth. It has also created what it calls “farmers ebay”, an online marketplace which matches buyers and sellers of grains and oilseeds.”\r\n\r\nInspite of the rising interest in this sector, since Monsanto’s near $1bn purchase of Climate Corporation in 2013, there have been only two other large transactions in the sector: DuPont’s purchase of farm software group Granular for $300m and tractor maker’s Deere &amp; Co’s $305m deal to buy Blue River, a start-up that makes machine learning tools for the industry.', 'FT Big read – Agritech – Disrupters take root', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1052-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:42:01', '2019-11-13 09:42:01', '', 1052, 'https://marcellus.in/1052-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2393, 1, '2019-11-13 09:55:46', '2019-11-13 09:55:46', 'There is plenty of research which shows that exercise can help with depression. Most studies however focus on aerobic exercise (running, cycling, etc). Could it be that lifting weights also helps tackle depression? In a paper published in JAMA Psychiatry, researchers analysed the results of 33 experiments focused on this issue. They found that:\r\n\r\na) Strength training was linked across the board to improvements in depressive symptoms, such as low mood, a loss of interest in activities, and feelings of worthlessness. In fact, <em>“…resistance training may be particularly effective for those with greater depressive symptoms.”</em>\r\n\r\nb) <em>“…the number of weekly workouts didn’t seem to matter. The benefits were much the same, whether people trained twice or five times a week. In addition, improvements in physical strength didn’t correlate with less depression. Just getting the training done, irrespective of the amount of strength gained, seemed to help.”</em>\r\n\r\nc) <em>“Resistance training…is also a highly effective way to manage symptoms of anxiety…Both types of exercise led to a significant drop in symptoms of worry, with subjects in the resistance training group seeing the best results. In fact, lifting weights just twice a week led to a remission rate that was on par with antidepressants.”</em>\r\n\r\nd) <em>“Six months of resistance training has also been shown to increase the size of certain regions of the brain. And this change in brain structure was tied to an improvement in mental function.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Lifting Weights Has a Surprising Effect on Mental Health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1076-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:55:46', '2019-11-13 09:55:46', '', 1076, 'https://marcellus.in/1076-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2394, 1, '2019-11-13 09:57:06', '2019-11-13 09:57:06', 'A wonderful piece on patience and perseverance from a Mathematician’s perspective – virtues key to success in any field, more so if you are an inventor. But this article ties it in with the whole process of learning for children and adults alike and adopting a growth mindset to living – accepting ‘the state of being stuck’ as Andrew Wiles puts it.\r\n\r\n<em>“What you have to handle when you start doing mathematics as an older child or as an adult is accepting the state of being stuck,” Wiles said. “People don’t get used to that. They find it very stressful.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“These days, the educational conversation revolves instead around Carol Dweck’s grit-related concept of mindsets.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Some people exhibit a fixed mindset. They believe that one’s intelligence and abilities are unchanging, stable traits. Success, to them, is not about effort; it’s about raw ability. To struggle is to reveal your intellectual shortcomings. They can accept the state of being stuck only insofar as they accept the state of being visibly and irrefutably stupid—which is to say, not very far.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By contrast, those with a growth mindset believe that effort fuels progress. The harder you work, the more you’ll learn. To be stuck is a transient state, which you overcome with patience and persistence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“If you hold one mental image of Wiles, he wants it to be this: not the triumphant scholar with the medal around his neck, but the child learning to glory in the state of being stuck.“</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The State of Being Stuck', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1074-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:57:06', '2019-11-13 09:57:06', '', 1074, 'https://marcellus.in/1074-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2395, 1, '2019-11-13 09:59:35', '2019-11-13 09:59:35', 'Simon Kuper is in superb form in this fluent essay on how overworked American professionals now look enviously at Northern Europeans. Why? Because many Northern Europeans <em>“get home from work in time for dinner with the kids; no stress about paying for their education or healthcare; safe streets in a safe region; an affordable home near extended family; frequent holidays and a long life. You won’t get rich, but you won’t need to either.”</em>\r\n\r\nAs Donald Trump has said “Sadly, the American dream is dead.” America now is a society dominated by heirs, <em>“the predictable result of 80 years of national wealth accumulation and low to non-existent inheritance taxes. The US has less social mobility than northern Europe…most Democrats and young Americans now believe in “socialism”. By that, they seem to mean a more equal society with decent social services – in short, something like Northern Europe.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Why northern Europe is the new American dream?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1072-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 09:59:35', '2019-11-13 09:59:35', '', 1072, 'https://marcellus.in/1072-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2396, 1, '2019-11-13 10:01:00', '2019-11-13 10:01:00', 'An investigative piece about Elon Musk’s travails with Gigafactory and Model 3 by Charles Duhigg, the Pullitzer prize winner and author of The Power of Habit. Charles brings out the other side of genius in this piece in the WIRED. It is full of anecdotes, sometimes hilarious but often times grave enough to know that beautiful minds come with an immense inherent ability to self-destruct.\r\n\r\n<em>““The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy toward a solar electric economy,” Musk wrote in a 2006 document he called “The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan.” “We will not stop until every car on the road is electric,” he said at one point. It was a lesson in his approach to life. “Optimism, pessimism, fuck that,” he once told WIRED about his other company, SpaceX. “We’re going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I’m hell-bent on making it work.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Silicon Valley was built on such audaciousness. Musk’s story, in particular, has been embraced as proof that believing in the impossible can sometimes make it real.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Musk’s odd behavior isn’t unique or even extreme in the annals of inventors. Howard Hughes lived like a hermit in hotels, watching movies in the nude and refusing to cut his fingernails. Nikola Tesla, who pioneered alternating current electricity delivery—and who is honored in the name of Musk’s company—died destitute, convinced he had invented a motor that could run on “cosmic rays” and obsessed with caring for sick pigeons. (He is reputed to have said of one, “I loved that pigeon as a man loves a woman, and she loved me.”)</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There’s a sense of tragedy in such stories because these men seemed, at one point, to rise above the masses and suggest that genius is possible. Silicon Valley in particular reveres these kind of heroes—and the more willful and ornery they are, the better. Technologists are often called upon to do things that seem impossible, and so they celebrate when doubters are proven wrong—when dismissal of an idea becomes evidence of its visionary reach. The idea of the odd genius is afforded a special status within technology. People lionize inventors who listen to their intuition and ignore naysayers, who hold themselves and everyone else to a standard of perfection, regardless of what it costs those around them. Steve Jobs is gone; now we have Elon Musk.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“On July 1—more than two years after opening reservations for the Model 3—Musk finally sent the jubilant email many employees had been waiting for. “I think we just became a real car company,” he wrote. Tesla had manufactured 5,031 Model 3 vehicles during a seven-day period. They had hit their goal, six months late, at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and dozens of executive departures. “What an incredible job by an amazing team,” Musk wrote. “Couldn’t be more proud to work with you.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Employees inside the company also thought it was amazing, though some cite different reasons.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“For me, the fact that we were able to build at scale, amid all that craziness, that’s the real accomplishment,” one former engineering executive told me. “Just think about it: We designed a car that is so simple and elegant you can build it in a tent. You can build it when your CEO is melting down. You can build it when everyone is quitting or getting fired. That’s a real accomplishment. That’s amazing.”</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Dr. Elon & Mr. Musk: Life Inside Tesla’s Production Hell', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1070-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:01:00', '2019-11-13 10:01:00', '', 1070, 'https://marcellus.in/1070-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2397, 1, '2019-11-13 10:03:18', '2019-11-13 10:03:18', 'The revolution that Jim Simons, an award winning Maths professor from Stony Brook University, started in 1982 when he set up Renaissance Capital has changed the face of investing. Inspired by the success of Renaissance’s Medallion fund – 75% CAGR before fees from 1991 to 2005 – a whole generation of quant funds have transformed investing. Now, the majority of American money that is traded is managed by quants and their algorithms. This New Yorker article helps you understand the remarkable man behind this revolution.\r\n\r\nA decade into his “retirement” from Renaissance Capital he is still one of the highest paid individuals in the world (puling in nearly a couple of billion dollars each year) thanks to his massive stake in the hedge fund he founded. In fact, the Renaissance Medallion fund still makes so much money that it for at least a decade now it has stopped taking any inflows.\r\n\r\nBut what makes Simons really interesting is not just his enormous networth (estimated at nearly $20bn). It is how he spends his wealth. Simons is spending close to $90m each year in funding and running the Flatiron Institute in Manhattan. The Institute’s sole job is to make world class computing firepower available to America’s smartest academics.\r\n\r\n<em>“The Flatiron Institute, which is in an eleven-story fin-de-siècle building on the corner of Twenty-first Street and Fifth Avenue, is devoted exclusively to computational science—the development and application of algorithms to analyze enormous caches of scientific data. In recent decades, university researchers have become adept at collecting digital information: trillions of base pairs from sequenced human genomes; light measurements from billions of stars. But, because few of these scientists are professional coders, they have often analyzed their hauls with jury-rigged code that has been farmed out to graduate students. The institute’s aim is to help provide top researchers across the scientific spectrum with bespoke algorithms that can detect even the faintest tune in the digital cacophony…The Flatiron doesn’t conduct any new experiments. Most of its fellows collaborate with universities that generate fresh data from “wet” labs—the ones with autoclaves and genetically engineered mice—and other facilities. The institute’s algorithms and computer models are meant to help its fellows uncover information hidden in data sets that have already been collected: inferring the location of new planets from the distorted space-time that surrounds them; identifying links to mutations among apparently functionless parts of chromosomes. As a result, the interior of the institute looks less like a lab than like an ordinary Flatiron-district office: casually dressed people sitting all day at desks, staring at screens, under high ceilings.”</em>\r\n\r\nReading this piece makes you realise that the top researchers across disciplines as diverse as biotech, climatology, physics and finance are all collecting vast amounts of data and then applying quant techniques to tease out signals. That in turn is changing the nature of research &amp; academia. Out of the window goes abstract theoreticising (for example, the kind of work that made Einstein an immortal) and into the arena comes data collection and heavy number crunching. In that sense, what Jim Simons is doing is taking the methods that made him rich and spreading them across all other academic disciplines. Now, that’s called building a real legacy.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Jim Simons – the Numbers King', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1067-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:03:18', '2019-11-13 10:03:18', '', 1067, 'https://marcellus.in/1067-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2398, 1, '2019-11-13 10:10:05', '2019-11-13 10:10:05', 'Christopher Wylie, the former Cambridge Analytica employee, who blew the cover on what the group was upto, is a very original thinker. In this remarkable interview with the FT, the Canadian – who dropped out of school, then taught himself to write code and then studied law at the London School of Economics – talks about: (a) how the modern tech companies are exploiting our personal data and given others the ability to “weaponise” our personal data; and (b) the links between popular culture, fashion and politics. Key quotes from a refreshingly original interview:\r\n\r\n<em>“I think a lot of regulators and legislators are realising that the argument that we should have development without any rules and regulations, just for the sake of innovating, can go terribly wrong. When you have data and algorithms being weaponised and being used against a population, to undermine their very perception of what’s real, the impact of that is Donald Trump, or Brexit, or the rapid expansion of the alt-right and neo-Nazis. Our products, in my view, are weapons of mass destruction. And that has been facilitated, in many cases knowingly, by companies like Facebook…We are trading our democracy for ad optimisation. I don’t agree with that trade-off.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The first discussion I had with Steve Bannon, we ended up talking about fashion, because he was asking “How do you create cultural change?” He thinks about what he’s doing as a cultural war. And when you look at weapons, weapons have two fundamental aspects. You’ve got a payload and you’ve got a targeting system. The payload in cultural warfare are narratives, and the targeting systems are algorithms. And that war is fought, at the moment, in the domain of cyberspace. Fashion and politics are the same industry. in many regards, because it’s about identity, and it’s cyclical, and people get really emotive about it. In psychology they call it an affective response, where you have a gut response. Fashion affects you.”</em>', 'Christopher Wylie – what happens next?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1064-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:10:05', '2019-11-13 10:10:05', '', 1064, 'https://marcellus.in/1064-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2399, 1, '2019-11-13 10:12:07', '2019-11-13 10:12:07', 'Airbnb is getting into the business of providing affordable homes through an initiative called Backyard which is to be launched in 2019. <em>“…people will soon be able to buy homes from Airbnb that can then be rented out through Airbnb’s platform. It’s an obvious win-win for the company. But for the rest of us, it’s an example of the way companies like Airbnb — which was once relegated to one sector of the economy — are increasingly encroaching on our everyday lives. Airbnb’s foray into homebuilding suggests a future in which everything is commodified and nothing, even the home, is private…Backyard buildings, designed by Airbnb’s new in-house design studio Samara, are intended to be “optimal Airbnb rentals” and could further streamline this aesthetic. To be clear, the Backyard homes — which, by the way, won’t be located in actual backyards — won’t be limited to Airbnb hosts… While that may be true, these adaptable homes will also make it easier for people to be Airbnb hosts. Not everyone has an extra room to rent out; a Backyard home’s modular floor plan could fix that.”</em>\r\n\r\nThis initiative by Airbnb echoes what Uber and Lyft are doing with cars (leasing and selling cars to drivers) and what Tulerie is doing with clothes (let’s users rent clothes from each other). The sharing economy is going from some of us renting parts of our houses/cars with others to all of renting almost everything we have with each other!\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong> To know more about us, visit www.marcellus.in', 'Airbnb will start designing – and selling – homes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1088-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:12:07', '2019-11-13 10:12:07', '', 1088, 'https://marcellus.in/1088-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2400, 1, '2019-11-13 10:13:33', '2019-11-13 10:13:33', 'The genetically perfect Superwoman is pretty quickly going to become a reality to two different streams of advances in science.\r\n\r\nFirstly, a US company, Genomic Predictions, says that it can genetically profile embryos to predict IQ, height and disease risk. Since fertility treatment often produces multiple embryos, prospective parents can then pick those with the “best” genes. In fact, parents may soon feel the moral responsibility to choose their best selves. China, apparently, has long been reading the genomes of its best students.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Chinese are doing what they are doing (remember, this week a Chinese scientist has announced that he has produced the world’s first genetically edited babies (<a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/29/work-on-gene-edited-babies-blatant-violation-of-the-law-says-china</a>), we need to realise that each of us has a set of genomes which are slightly different from everyone else’s genomes. This is our genetic fingerprint and the points of difference between my fingerprint and yours are called SNPs. If a distinctive pattern of SNPs shows up repeatedly in the context of a disorder or in the context of high achieving students, you have the basis for gene editing and/or embryo selection.\r\n\r\nRobert Plomin of the Institute of Psychiatry in London says that genes are the key drivers of schoolchildren’s exam results. In fact, there are around 1,000 genes which underpin “intelligence”. Plomin says that we are heading into an era of precision education where parents will do everything possible before a child is born to enhance the child’s life chances. In the future parents’ goal <em>“might no longer be giving a child the best start to life, but instead of giving a start in life to the best child.”</em>', 'Intelligence profiling opens up uber-parenting potential', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1086-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:13:33', '2019-11-13 10:13:33', '', 1086, 'https://marcellus.in/1086-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2401, 1, '2019-11-13 10:15:02', '2019-11-13 10:15:02', 'Bilfinger, a German construction group, has created a series of videos in response to the German working age population falling from 49mn in 2020 to 44mn in 2030. With 50% of Germany’s blue collar workers set to retire over the next five years, these videos seek to capture the skills/domain knowledge of the workers before they disappear into the sunset.\r\n\r\n“Industrial Tube is a software program enabling workers with little experience of filming and editing to make quick “how to” videos to teach others specific niche skills built up over decades.”\r\n\r\nMicrosoft has helped Bilfinger with language recognition software so that spoken words are automatically sub-titled. Workers follow templates so that the videos are shot in snippets thus obviating the need for editing.\r\n\r\nIn the meantime, Bosch is planning to launch BoschTube in January, a learning platform for workers in the manufacturing sector.', 'Bilfinger launches Youtube-style skills videos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1084-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:15:02', '2019-11-13 10:15:02', '', 1084, 'https://marcellus.in/1084-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2402, 1, '2019-11-13 10:16:19', '2019-11-13 10:16:19', 'This New York Times piece by Tim Wu, a law professor and the author of the recently published “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age”, highlights the link between two major emerging phenomena of rising populism, nationalism or neofascism and increasing economic concentration or Big Corporate. He highlights that throughout history the origins of fascism are as much economic as socio-political.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is a story that should sound uncomfortably familiar: An economic crisis yields widespread economic suffering, feeding an appetite for a nationalistic and extremist leader. The leader rides to power promising a return to national greatness, deliverance from economic suffering and the defeat of enemies foreign and domestic (including big business). Yet in reality, the leader seeks alliances with large enterprises and the great monopolies, so long as they obey him, for each has something the other wants: He gets their loyalty, and they avoid democratic accountability.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“There is a direct link between concentration and the distortion of democratic process. As any undergraduate political science major could tell you, the more concentrated an industry — the fewer members it has — the easier it is to cooperate to achieve its political goals. A group like the middle class is hopelessly disorganized and has limited influence in Congress. But concentrated industries, like the pharmaceutical industry, find it easy to organize to take from the public for their own benefit”.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As the lawyer and consumer advocate Robert Pitofsky warned in 1979, we must not forget the economic origins of totalitarianism, that “massively concentrated economic power, or state intervention induced by that level of concentration, is incompatible with liberal, constitutional democracy.”</em>', 'Be Afraid of Economic ‘Bigness.’ Be Very Afraid.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1082-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:16:19', '2019-11-13 10:16:19', '', 1082, 'https://marcellus.in/1082-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2403, 1, '2019-11-13 10:19:09', '2019-11-13 10:19:09', 'No, this is not about Sergei Brin and Larry Page. James Somers, in this lovely piece in The New Yorker, talks about how Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat, two Google engineers who “changed the course of the company – and the Internet”. Part of the piece talks about how Larry Page’s idea to index the web may well have been just another idea but for the genius of these two engineers who resolved the bottle neck over what would now be considered historic four days given the impact Google has had on mankind.\r\n\r\n<em>“Today, Google’s engineers exist in a Great Chain of Being that begins at Level 1. At the bottom are the I.T. support staff. Level 2s are fresh out of college; Level 3s often have master’s degrees. Getting to Level 4 takes several years, or a Ph.D. Most progression stops at Level 5. Level 6 engineers—the top ten per cent—are so capable that they could be said to be the reason a project succeeds; Level 7s are Level 6s with a long track record. Principal Engineers, the Level 8s, are associated with a major product or piece of infrastructure. Distinguished Engineers, the Level 9s, are spoken of with reverence. To become a Google Fellow, a Level 10, is to win an honor that will follow you for life. Google Fellows are usually the world’s leading experts in their fields. Jeff and Sanjay are Google Senior Fellows—the company’s first and only Level 11s.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rest of the piece is even more interesting – highlighting how the duo despite having vastly different personalities complement each other and continue to solve some of the world’s most complex problems. It is intriguing that in a field seemingly as individualistic as software coding, working in pairs can be far more effective. Indeed, the piece cites studies which have shown examples of Picasso-Braque, Lennon-McCartney as pairs which worked in unison in art and music too.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his book “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/0226238679/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Collaborative Circles: Friendship Dynamics and Creative Work</a>,” from 2001, the sociologist Michael P. Farrell made a study of close creative groups—the French Impressionists, Sigmund Freud and his contemporaries. “Most of the fragile insights that laid the foundation of a new vision emerged not when the whole group was together, and not when members worked alone, but when they collaborated and responded to one another in pairs,” he wrote. It took Monet and Renoir, working side by side in the summer of 1869, to develop the style that became Impressionism; during the six-year collaboration that gave rise to Cubism, <a href=\"https://www.newyorker.com/tag/pablo-picasso\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pablo Picasso</a> and Georges Braque would often sign only the backs of their canvases, to obscure which of them had completed each painting. (“A canvas was not finished until both of us felt it was,” Picasso later recalled.) In “<a href=\"https://www.amazon.com/dp/1848545924/?tag=thneyo0f-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Powers of Two: Finding the Essence of Innovation in Creative Pairs</a>,” the writer Joshua Wolf Shenk quotes from a 1971 interview in which John Lennon explained that either he or Paul McCartney would “write the good bit, the part that was easy, like ‘I read the news today’ or whatever it was.” One of them would get stuck until the other arrived—then, Lennon said, “I would sing half, and he would be inspired to write the next bit and vice versa.” Everyone falls into creative ruts, but two people rarely do so at the same time.”</em>', 'The Friendship That Made Google Huge', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1080-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:19:09', '2019-11-13 10:19:09', '', 1080, 'https://marcellus.in/1080-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2404, 1, '2019-11-13 10:20:30', '2019-11-13 10:20:30', 'In this crisp video, poker champion Liv Boeree, tells us that there are three mistakes which poker players make which are also made by many of us in day-to-day life:\r\n\r\na) <strong>Misunderstanding the role of luck:</strong> if due to a slice of good fortune, you win big but then misinterpret that victory as being underpinned by your skill then you are likely to not just become more complacent/lazy going forward but also take more risk (since you are convinced that you are very skilful). This combination is likely to result in your career graph sliding. Our egos love to downplay the luck factor and that often costs us a lot of money.\r\n\r\nb) <strong>Quantification is essential:</strong> poker is a game of probabilities and you have to train yourself to think in numbers. Numbers bring precision into our thinking. Numbers allow us to communicate precisely with other people (as opposed to using words like “probably” and “maybe” which are open to subjective interpretation).\r\n\r\nc) <strong>Intuition is not going to get you very far:</strong> The people we are competing against are not going to use intuition to beat us. They will use careful, precise research and quantification to us. Intuition is only useful when we do the same thing thousands of time and hence the probabilities and risk-reward payoffs become second nature to us. Most investment-related activities do not fall into this domain.', 'Three lessons in decision making from a poker champion', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1078-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:20:30', '2019-11-13 10:20:30', '', 1078, 'https://marcellus.in/1078-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2405, 1, '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '<div id=\"wrapper\">\r\n<div class=\"clearfix\">\r\n<div id=\"content\">\r\n<div id=\"full-content\" class=\"media-coverage-page single-post-detail-page\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"entry\">\r\n\r\nJanan Ganesh notes the millenials’ growing abstinence from use of alcohol and drugs and even physical intimacy and wonders if these typical hedonistic pleasures of the previous generation are being replaced by hits from digital tools.\r\n\r\n<em>“Consider the well-documented abstention of the young: America’s millennial homebodies, the near-third of British 16- to 24-year-olds who refuse alcohol, their avoidance of illicit drugs, the “sexual recession”. Thus did the shuttered nightclub become this decade’s video-rental chain in receivership.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The previous generation “tends to an instrumental view of tech: it is there to arrange personal gatherings, and improve the time in between. The emergent suspicion is that, for younger millennials, digital contact with others is socialising.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“The dread, as voiced by Sean Parker, among others, is a deeper re-wiring of the brain so that it registers the same stimulus from remote interaction as from drugs and physical intimacies. Hence the generational decline in both. If this is going on, it is not just hard to reverse, it is liable to accelerate. Imagine the millennials’ children.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“History has thrown up these ruptures before: generations divided along the knife’s edge of a new invention. Think of the difference in teenagers just before and just after the advent of the pill. The world did not cave in. Nor is it clear that Generation Sensible is losing out. The internet’s “social-validation feedback loop” (Parker’s phrase) seems insidious to we who grew up without it. But teetotal Instagrammers will wonder if alcohol is any smarter a way of flooding human dopamine receptors. As for the decline in sex, teenage pregnancies have been falling in England and Wales for a decade.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n<aside id=\"sidebar\"></aside></div>\r\n<footer>\r\n<div class=\"footer-menu\">\r\n<div class=\"container\">\r\n<div class=\"menu-footer-menu-container\">\r\n<ul id=\"menu-footer-menu\" class=\"nav\">\r\n 	<li id=\"menu-item-208\" class=\"menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-208\"><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">Home</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</footer>', 'Why my generation is the last of the hedonists', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1101-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '2019-11-13 10:23:51', '', 1101, 'https://marcellus.in/1101-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2406, 1, '2019-11-13 10:34:58', '2019-11-13 10:34:58', 'In this insightful piece, Roubini explains why it is easy and almost inevitable that Central Banks use their unique place in the financial system to displace cryptocurrencies with their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). If we extrapolate Roubini’s thinking, a broader point emerges: wherever blockchain challenges the authority or the role of the sovereign, it will be easy for the sovereign to step into the blockchain and take control of it.\r\n\r\n<em>“…only commercial banks have access to central banks’ balance sheets; and central banks’ reserves are already held as digital currencies…Because individuals, corporations, and non-bank financial institutions do not enjoy the same access, they must rely on licensed commercial banks to process their transactions. Bank deposits, then, are a form of private money that is used for transactions among non-bank private agents. As a result, not even fully digital systems such as Alipay or Venmo can operate apart from the banking system.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>By allowing any individual to make transactions through the central bank, CBDCs would upend this arrangement, alleviating the need for cash, traditional bank accounts, and even digital payment services. Better yet, CBDCs would not have to rely on public “permission-less,”“trustless” distributed ledgers like those underpinning cryptocurrencies. After all, central banks already have a centralized permissioned private non-distributed ledger that allows for payments and transactions to be facilitated safely and seamlessly…If a CBDC were to be issued, it would immediately displace cryptocurrencies, which are not scalable, cheap, secure, or actually decentralized….</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The main problem with CBDCs is that they would disrupt the current fractional-reserve system through which commercial banks create money by lending out more than they hold in liquid deposits. Banks need deposits in order to make loans and investment decisions. If all private bank deposits were to be moved into CBDCs, then traditional banks would need to become “loanable funds intermediaries,” borrowing long-term funds to finance long-term loans such as mortgages.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>In other words, the fractional-reserve banking system would be replaced by a narrow-banking system administered mostly by the central bank. That would amount to a financial revolution – and one that would yield many benefits. Central banks would be in a much better position to control credit bubbles, stop bank runs, prevent maturity mismatches, and regulate risky credit/lending decisions by private banks.”</em>', 'Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1099-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:34:58', '2019-11-13 10:34:58', '', 1099, 'https://marcellus.in/1099-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2407, 1, '2019-11-13 10:36:19', '2019-11-13 10:36:19', 'Across the English speaking world – including India – a delusion that grips affluent people is that there is some sort of law in Finance which says that house prices have to rise, if not tomorrow, if not next year, then at least in the next decade. This delusion is fuelled by a belief that somehow land/housing is in limited supply and hence should go up in price.\r\n\r\nThis article busts that myth in the context of the UK. Deutsche Bank’s long term asset return study shows that UK house prices have risen by just 3% a year in inflation-adjusted terms since 1939. But before that they fell by 50% in inflation adjusted terms from 1290 to 1939!! So why have house prices shown an upward drift in the last 80 years?\r\n\r\nThe answer lies in demographics. From 1950 to 2000, the global population doubled from 2.5bn to 6.1bn. Even more specifically, as the baby boomers came into the job market from the 1970s onwards and then created their own families, they started looking for houses. As they became affluent, they started seeking bigger houses. In the Western world, this seems to have been the main driver on house prices. That impulse is now dying down as the West (with the exception of the US) ages.\r\n\r\nIt is therefore now possible that UK house prices go back to being static for a long period of time. In the East Asian context data is already emerging that family formation is beginning to decline. It is not hard to imagine the consequences this might have for house prices in a market like China.', 'Will UK House Prices Ever Rise Again?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1097-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:36:19', '2019-11-13 10:36:19', '', 1097, 'https://marcellus.in/1097-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2408, 1, '2019-11-13 10:38:29', '2019-11-13 10:38:29', 'Canadian psychologist Elliot Jacques’s 1957 paper on “Death and the Mid-Life crisis” brought out the aspect of realisation of mortality as we approach mid-life. In this piece, Paul Flannery links the rise in middle aged people taking up extreme endurance activities as a response to such realisation and suggests that it is perhaps a more positive and constructive way of dealing with that anxiety.\r\n\r\n<em>“Getting older can trigger a kind of introspection, and often that introspection focuses on how much time has passed, how much is left, and what to do with it. That can create anxiety, and that anxiety can be multiplied by depression, stress, or good old-fashioned existential ennui.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For decades, the midlife crisis has been expressed in tired pop-culture tropes in which (usually) white men buy sports cars and carry on affairs with younger women in a doomed and desperate bid to feel young again. But increasingly, people are responding to the anxieties of middle age not by clinging to the last vestiges of expiring youth but to taking on challenges that seem to belong to the young alone: by pushing the limits of what they’re physically capable of through endurance athletics and extreme fitness. The focus is less on what happened before the crisis and more on what happens after. Call it the midlife correction.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Today, almost a third of all triathlon participants in the United States are between the ages of 40 and 49, according to the U.S. Triathlon organization. That’s the largest age demographic by decade and one of the most competitive. The same holds true for the Boston Marathon, where more than 8,200 runners in their 40s crossed the finish line in April, a little more than 31 percent of the total field. The largest field of competitors at the 2017 New York Marathon was between the ages of 40 and 44. In London in 2015, those 40–49 runners had faster overall times than the 20–29-year-olds.”</em>', 'Extreme Athleticism Is the New Midlife Crisis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1093-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:38:29', '2019-11-13 10:38:29', '', 1093, 'https://marcellus.in/1093-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2409, 1, '2019-11-13 10:49:43', '2019-11-13 10:49:43', 'As a start-up, we run into people every now and then who try to use their muscle to put us in our place. In the narrow context of our lives and in the broader context of the world we live in, we loved this commencement speech given by US Navy veteran, Admiral McRaven (ninth commander of U.S. Special Operations Command) to the University of Texas.\r\n\r\nWhat the Admiral does in his speech is to use his Navy Seal training course as a metaphor for our lives. Three of his vignettes stand out:\r\n\r\n<em>“Every morning in basic SEAL training, my instructors, who at the time were all Vietnam veterans, would show up in my barracks room and the first thing they would inspect was your bed. If you did it right, the corners would be square, the covers pulled tight, the pillow centered just under the headboard and the extra blanket folded neatly at the foot of the rack — that’s Navy talk for bed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It was a simple task — mundane at best. But every morning we were required to make our bed to perfection. It seemed a little ridiculous at the time, particularly in light of the fact that were aspiring to be real warriors, tough battle-hardened SEALs, but the wisdom of this simple act has been proven to me many times over.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you make your bed every morning you will have accomplished the first task of the day. It will give you a small sense of pride, and it will encourage you to do another task and another and another. By the end of the day, that one task completed will have turned into many tasks completed. Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that little things in life matter. If you can’t do the little things right, you will never do the big things right.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And, if by chance you have a miserable day, you will come home to a bed that is made — that you made — and a made bed gives you encouragement that tomorrow will be better. If you want to change the world, start off by making your bed.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Several times a week, the instructors would line up the class and do a uniform inspection. It was exceptionally thorough. Your hat had to be perfectly starched, your uniform immaculately pressed and your belt buckle shiny and void of any smudges. But it seemed that no matter how much effort you put into starching your hat, or pressing your uniform or polishing your belt buckle — it just wasn’t good enough. The instructors would find “something” wrong.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For failing the uniform inspection, the student had to run, fully clothed into the surfzone and then, wet from head to toe, roll around on the beach until every part of your body was covered with sand. The effect was known as a “sugar cookie.” You stayed in that uniform the rest of the day — cold, wet and sandy.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There were many a student who just couldn’t accept the fact that all their effort was in vain. That no matter how hard they tried to get the uniform right, it was unappreciated. Those students didn’t make it through training. Those students didn’t understand the purpose of the drill. You were never going to succeed. You were never going to have a perfect uniform.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Sometimes no matter how well you prepare or how well you perform you still end up as a sugar cookie. It’s just the way life is sometimes.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If you want to change the world get over being a sugar cookie and keep moving forward.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“During the land warfare phase of training, the students are flown out to San Clemente Island which lies off the coast of San Diego. The waters off San Clemente are a breeding ground for the great white sharks. To pass SEAL training there are a series of long swims that must be completed. One is the night swim.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Before the swim the instructors joyfully brief the trainees on all the species of sharks that inhabit the waters off San Clemente. They assure you, however, that no student has ever been eaten by a shark — at least not recently. But, you are also taught that if a shark begins to circle your position — stand your ground. Do not swim away. Do not act afraid. And if the shark, hungry for a midnight snack, darts towards you — then summon up all your strength and punch him in the snout, and he will turn and swim away.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>There are a lot of sharks in the world. If you hope to complete the swim you will have to deal with them.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>So, if you want to change the world, don’t back down from the sharks.”</em>', 'Adm. McRaven Urges Graduates to Find Courage to Change the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1091-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:49:43', '2019-11-13 10:49:43', '', 1091, 'https://marcellus.in/1091-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2410, 1, '2019-11-13 10:51:40', '2019-11-13 10:51:40', 'From the time we entered the stockmarket, all of us have been taught that “if everyone knows that the stock is a BUY then that info is fully factored in the stock price and you can’t make money”. But if that is the case then how is that <em>“momentum investing – which is betting that the stock market’s recent winners will remain winners in the near term and, likewise, that the recent losers will remain losers”</em> – works.\r\n\r\nIn 1993 a pioneering study published in the Journal of Finance by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman, both at UCLA Anderson at the time, showed that <em>“buying recent stock winners and selling recent losers generated significantly higher near-term returns than the U.S. market overall from 1965 to 1989.”</em> However, Jegadeesh &amp; Titman did not explain in that piece why momentum investing works\r\n\r\nUCLA Anderson’s Avanidhar Subrahmanyam has had a crack at laying out some of the reasons why momentum investing works in his August 2018 paper for the Pacific-Basin Finance Journal.\r\n\r\n<em>“In his research into 25 years of academic literature on momentum, Subrahmanyam found that many of the rationales presented for the strategy’s success fall into one of two behavioral categories: Investors either overreact to important information, or they underreact to it. Because, after all, we’re only human.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor example, we underreact to momentum because some stocks rise slowly &amp; gradually. At a psychological level, it appears that our brain does not lock-into these winners early enough and discount the entire upside that can accrue in the future. Another example of a psychological bias which could cause momentum is if a stock has been doing well in our portfolio, we become wedded to it and fail to discount bad news on the company efficiently (our brain does not place a high enough emphasis on the bad news).\r\n\r\nLeaving aside psychology, another reason momentum investing might be so successful is risk premia i.e. the upside we get from momentum investing is the return we get from buying a risky stock.\r\n\r\nAll of this being said, even Subrahmanyam concludes that the consistent &amp; puzzling success of momentum investing is perhaps the greatest challenge to Eugene Fama’s “efficient markets” theory.\r\n\r\nTo read, Subrahmanyam’s fascinating paper, click here:\r\n<a href=\"http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/Documents/sites/faculty/review%20publications/research/Subra2018_Momentum.pdf</a>', 'Momentum Investing: It Works, But Why?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '988-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:51:40', '2019-11-13 10:51:40', '', 988, 'https://marcellus.in/988-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2411, 1, '2019-11-13 10:53:00', '2019-11-13 10:53:00', 'Have you been in a situation where you desperately want to quit a job but you don’t quite have it in you to tell your employer? Well, the Japanese have figured out a solution to this problem. In Japan, all you have to do is call a proxy resignation service, tell them you want to quit and when you want to quit. They will take it from there i.e. they will call your employer and tell that you will no longer be coming to office and that the employer needs to expedite – switching to Indian parlance use – the “full &amp; final settlement”.\r\n\r\nThe name of one of the more prominent proxy resignation service providers in Japan is Exit. However, this space, whilst uncrowded at present, is expect to see rapid new entry as in a labour starved market like Japan, it is really easy to quit a job you don’t like and get a new one. As the market for skilled labour tightens in India, this sort of service would work really well in India.', 'Proxy resignation service helps Japan’s dutiful workers to quit dead end jobs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '986-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:53:00', '2019-11-13 10:53:00', '', 986, 'https://marcellus.in/986-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2412, 1, '2019-11-13 10:54:22', '2019-11-13 10:54:22', 'In light of this week’s <a href=\"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/american-killed-isolated-indian-tribe-north-sentinel-island\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">news</a> of the killing of an American man in the North Sentinel Island of the Andaman’s by an isolated tribe, this book excerpt on Scroll.in is a fascinating read on what remains one of the last bunch of humans completely isolated from the rest of humanity and how very little is known about them. Indeed, it highlights the paradox of how the isolation has somewhat kept them alive (due to the tribe’s lack of immunity to modern human diseases) yet the actions of the rest of humanity (climate change) might eventually send them to extinction.\r\n\r\n<em>“I had decidedly mixed feelings about the trip. The Sentinel Islanders should be left alone, I completely believed. On the other hand, many fishermen approached the island because of its rich waters, and one heard of foreign poachers as well. I felt I needed to know if the islanders were interacting with outsiders, for that was the beginning of the end. But I recognized that most anyone could construct a rationale for why she and no one else should have access to an endangered people….What would kill off the Sentinel islanders, ultimately, would not be the impoverished populations nearby, which are now held at bay. It would be the flatulence of the wealthy society where I lived, at the other end of the globe.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'A visit to North Sentinel island: ‘Please, please, please, let us not destroy this last haven’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '984-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:54:22', '2019-11-13 10:54:22', '', 984, 'https://marcellus.in/984-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2413, 1, '2019-11-13 10:57:06', '2019-11-13 10:57:06', 'This article provides a riveting insight just how high tech war has already become and how frighteningly sophisticated it is about to become. At the vanguard of this revolution in fighting are, as expected, USA and China, both of whom seem to be preparing for World War III. With America intent upon using India as a counterweight to China (and with India not really having any other high powered ally in its emerging conflict with China), it seems certain that some of our tax dollars will be spent buying these high tech weapons.\r\n\r\nPatriots and nationalists out there who think war and fighting can solve anything should read this long and superbly detailed article. Some of the key points made in this piece are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The autonomous military vehicles of the future – tanks, drones, robots, etc – may have legs rather than wheels or tracks.</li>\r\n 	<li>Human armies seem likely to become obsolete as much of the fighting will be done by machines (who will fight other machines). AI powered robot-soldiers will be fighters of tomorrow.</li>\r\n 	<li>Robot-soldiers will come in all sorts of shape and sizes. Some will be the size and shop of dogs and will be sent on scouting missions to assess hidden threats. Others will be as small as insects and will attach themselves to sensitive military equipment. The possibilities seem endless.</li>\r\n 	<li>The US is developing hypersonic missiles i.e. missiles which fly at 5x the speed of sound.</li>\r\n 	<li>Tomorrow’s bullets will use electronmagnetic force so that they can far exceed the damage done by conventional bullets.</li>\r\n 	<li>High energy supersonic lasers which can zap drones and missiles are under development.</li>\r\n 	<li>The speed of warfare in the future will be blinding. Hence monitoring and management of war will require heavy of satellite technology and tech grids which can feed information to the war planners/generals. Therefore, jammers which could block enemy satellites will be critical. Secondly, quantum computing – which works much faster than conventional computing – will be essential to have an edge on the enemy.</li>\r\n 	<li>To the extent, conventional soldiers will have a role, their bodies will be enhanced by high tech add-ons such as a “third arm” i.e. a exoskeleton arm which can hold a gun (or whatever else you want it to hold) and carry on shooting if need be (whilst the soldier assesses the battlefront using his optically enhanced visor snap).</li>\r\n 	<li>China has developed its own stealth fighter jets and put missiles and bombers in a string of islands on the South China Sea thus restricting the US’ ability to protect longstanding allies like Taiwan and Japan. It is a fair bet that China will try to replicate this strategy in the Indian Ocean and seek to encircle India.</li>\r\n 	<li>It takes China less than seven years to build a weapon from idea to operational capability. It takes the US 16 years to do the same. Let’s not even ask how long it takes India.</li>\r\n 	<li>China has vowed become as strong as the US in AI by 2025 and become the dominant world force by 2030. Vladimir Putin has said that whoever becomes the world leader in AI will rule the world.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn the meantime, back in the ranch in India, we can’t get our military procurement moving as scandal after scandal ensnares India’s defence procurement. You don’t have to be a long term thinker or investor to think through the implications of the above.', 'The future of war', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '982-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:57:06', '2019-11-13 10:57:06', '', 982, 'https://marcellus.in/982-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2414, 1, '2019-11-13 10:58:20', '2019-11-13 10:58:20', 'Plastic is the main background material of modern material life. <em>“You might be surprised to learn, for instance, that today’s cars and planes are, by volume, about 50% plastic. More clothing is made out of polyester and nylon, both plastics, than cotton or wool. Plastic is also used in minute quantities as an adhesive to seal the vast majority of the 60bn teabags used in Britain each year… Each year, the world produces around 340m tonnes of the stuff, enough to fill every skyscraper in New York City. Humankind has produced unfathomable quantities of plastic for decades, first passing the 100m tonne mark in the early 1990s. But for some reason it is only very recently that people have really begun to care.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut getting rid of plastic won’t be easy. Plastic is cheap, light and flexible. <em>“…plastic made possible the cheap and disposable consumer culture that we have come to take for granted.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo why have people become so worked up about plastic all of a sudden?\r\n\r\n<em>“The shift in thinking started with the public outcry over microbeads, the small, abrasive grains of plastic that companies began pouring into cosmetic and cleaning products in the mid-1990s to add grit. (Nearly every plastic product has a natural and often biodegradable antecedent – plastic microbeads replaced ground seed kernels or pumice stones.) Scientists began raising the alarm about potential dangers posed to sea life in 2010, and people were shocked to learn that microbeads were in thousands of products, from Johnson &amp; Johnson’s spot-clearing face scrubs, to supposedly eco-friendly brands like the Body Shop.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The realisation that microbeads were pouring down millions of shower drains was a key moment in the public turn against plastic, according to Will McCallum, head of plastics campaigns at Greenpeace UK. “It was a design decision, a design flaw really,” he said. “It led people to ask, ‘How did this happen?’”</em>\r\n\r\nThen we learnt that synthetic fabrics like nylon and polyester would shed thousands of microscopic fibres with every wash. These fibres end up lodged in the guts of fish. Then came tyres – 60% of the volume of a tyre is plastic and these tyres shed even more microfibres than our synthetic clothes.\r\n\r\nAs these issues built up, plastic became public enemy #1 and crowded out what are arguably more important issues like global warming. Part of the reason for this is that people feel they can do something about plastic – using a paper straw makes you feel you are doing something useful in saving the planet. That in turn has meant that across the world the campaign against single-use plastic has taken off. In contrast, with someone as big and as complex as global warming, many people have stopped believing that their own actions can make a difference.\r\n\r\nPoliticians too have realised that going after single use plastic gives them green credentials in a way that tackling global warming couldn’t give them (because tangible progress with a mega-issue like global warming is hard to show).', 'The plastic backlash: what’s behind our sudden rage – and will it make a difference?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '980-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 10:58:20', '2019-11-13 10:58:20', '', 980, 'https://marcellus.in/980-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2415, 1, '2019-11-13 11:00:05', '2019-11-13 11:00:05', 'Amazon’s much publicised hunt for its second headquarters (HQ2) seems to be drawing some negative PR given the disclosures around how much of taxpayers’ money politicians are willing to fork out as incentives. <em>“Each year, local politicians spend up to an estimated $90 billion to lure corporations like Amazon to their states, which The Atlantic points out is “more than the federal government spends on housing, education, or infrastructure.”</em> Especially at a time when concerns around the concentration of power among a handful of big corporates, particularly big-tech are rising. Some of the stats in this piece from WIRED are startling.\r\n\r\n<em>HQ2’s public nature and enormous size turned individual proposals into front-page news—especially how much lawmakers planned to give the retail giant. Maryland, for example, was willing to fork over <a href=\"https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/oped/bs-ed-op-0415-amazon-incentives-20180411-story.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as much as $8.5 billion</a>…</em>\r\n<em>..The size of the deal quickly sparked outrage from both sides of the political spectrum, particularly in New York….“The richest man in the world just got $2 billion in taxpayer subsidies? How does that work?”…</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The company regularly receives public incentives to open facilities like warehouses and data centers, which Good Jobs First <a href=\"https://www.goodjobsfirst.org/amazon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">estimates</a>have totaled $1.6 billion. An <a href=\"https://theintercept.com/2018/04/19/amazon-snap-subsidies-warehousing-wages/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">investigation</a> from the nonprofit New Food Economy found that some Amazon warehouse workers are paid so little that they often qualify for another type of public benefit: food stamps. In some cases, taxpayers may even be subsidizing Amazon’s electricity costs, according to a <a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-20/amazon-isn-t-paying-its-electric-bills-you-might-be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg</a> report from August.</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'Why Amazon’s Search for a Second Headquarters Backfired', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1012-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:00:05', '2019-11-13 11:00:05', '', 1012, 'https://marcellus.in/1012-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2416, 1, '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '<em>“When Texas-based Tricon Energy wanted to buy Polymers from India’s Reliance Energy, the two companies avoided the usual rigmarole of phone calls, couriered documents and emails by logging into a new Blockchain system called Voltron.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Within minutes they had completed negotiations of the terms of the sale and then secured a letter of credit and advice from ING and HSBC to finalise the deal…”</em>\r\n\r\nThis article says that at least in the area of trade finance, banks seem to be on the way to monetising the billions of dollars they have invested in Blockchain so far. However, there are two issues still to contend with: (a) there are multiple blockchain platforms in the same area eg. trade finance and there will be a wave of consolidation before the system settles down; and (b) there are various networks of blockchains for various activities eg. shipping companies like AP Moller-Maersk and Hyundai are creating a blockchain which may or may not mesh with the banks’ blockchain which in turn may not mesh with the blockchain that large agro-commodity firms like Cargill or Bunge are creating.', 'Banks race to launch blockchain trade platforms', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1010-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '2019-11-13 11:01:19', '', 1010, 'https://marcellus.in/1010-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2417, 1, '2019-11-13 11:03:25', '2019-11-13 11:03:25', 'Last week China controversially reinstated the trade in rhino horns. In fact, the Chinese Government decided that it is alright once again to use and trade rhino and tiger parts. Globally, there are 30,000 rhinos and 4,000 tigers in the wild. China seems to be implicitly telling the world “we need these beasts for traditional Chinese medicines more than you need them for biodiversity”.\r\n\r\nThe WWF in its Living Planet report says that wildlife populations have declined by 60% between 1970 and 2014. Biodiversity should NOT be a niche concern – the number of bees and other pollinators, for example, impacts food production. The strongmen who are being elected to power in country after country don’t care about such things. The new Brazilian President, Jair Bolsanaro, has already said that he wants to loosen regulation of the Amazon rainforest.\r\n\r\n<em>“This planet provides us with food, water,…minerals…worth an estimated US$125 tn per annum. Instead of preserving our greatest assets, we are squandering it…You can guess the punchline to that.”</em>', 'Humanity’s calling card is the destruction of our planet', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1008-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:03:25', '2019-11-13 11:03:25', '', 1008, 'https://marcellus.in/1008-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2418, 1, '2019-11-13 11:05:24', '2019-11-13 11:05:24', 'Harmanpreet Kaur’s 51-ball century against New Zealand in the ongoing Women’s T20 world cup, follows her spectacular 171 not out in last year’s World Cup semi-finals against Australia where she single handedly steered her team to victory. This piece in Cricinfo’s The Cricket Monthly, profiles her life and career and highlights the impact she has had on raising the profile of women’s cricket not just in India but world over and how it has dramatically narrowed the gap from men’s cricket from the perspective of the cricket fan.\r\n\r\n<em>A former state-level basketball and handball player, and club cricketer, Harmandar raised Harmanpreet “like a son”, because “I wanted her to be the athlete I couldn’t be…When Harman used to come with me to the evening cricket matches, many from the neighbourhood said, ‘Ladki ko khilaake kya karoge?’ [What will you get by making a girl play cricket?] But I never cared about what others had to say.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Harmanpreet is a batting allrounder who modelled her aggressive style of play on that of her idol Virender Sehwag. But it was watching the India men’s Test vice-captain Ajinkya Rahane’s restraint at a nets session in 2016 that taught her the value of patience. And though her popularity in the cricketing landscape is nowhere close to Rahane’s, the fact that posters of both players (who are ambassadors for a leading sportswear brand) came up at the National Cricket Academy’s refurbished gym earlier this year is not bereft of symbolism. It represents the post-2017 World Cup era for women’s cricket in India, one with Harmanpreet at its centre.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Despite the second-place finish (in last year’s world cup), India’s breakout campaign brought much needed visibility to the team, and to the women’s game at large. The tournament’s 180 million reach, according to the ICC, included a 500% increase in viewing hours in India since 2013. The overall viewership for the final touched a record high of 126 million in India – as many people as watched the 2017 IPL final. On the web, #WWC17Final was the most tweeted hashtag for a women’s sport final.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“She just raised the bar high enough to see what’s possible,” says former Australia vice-captain Alex Blackwell</em>', 'The girl who took women’s cricket to the next level', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1006-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:05:24', '2019-11-13 11:05:24', '', 1006, 'https://marcellus.in/1006-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2419, 1, '2019-11-13 11:06:51', '2019-11-13 11:06:51', 'For those of us who grew up in Delhi and cannot understand why smoke from Punjabi farmers burning rice stubble has become such a major source of pollution for the capital city, this story gives one interesting answer and one controversial answer.\r\nThe interesting answer is this: “<em>Until a few years ago, when farmers in Punjab burnt the remnants of the rice crops in their fields in preparation for sowing wheat, the smoke from such fires was confined to Punjab.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to a publication of the Indian Council of Social Science Research(external link) published in 1991, ‘At the end of September and in early October, it becomes difficult to travel in the rural areas of Punjab because the air is thick with the smoke of burning paddy straw.’</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Clearly, farmers burnt the straw in late September and early October. However, in recent years, farmers have delayed the burning until late October.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>This delay is crucial and responsible for the smoke being carried all the way to Delhi. An analysis of the wind flow patterns reveals that wind blows into Delhi primarily from the west during the monsoon season, but changes direction in October and starts blowing into Delhi from the north.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The decision to delay the clearing of the fields was not the choice of farmers, but was forced on them by the Punjab government which passed the Punjab Preservation of Subsoil Water Act (external link) in 2009.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>According to this law, farmers could no longer sow rice in April, but had to wait until the middle of June. Rice has a 120-day period between germination and harvest, and the restriction on sowing means that the fields would be harvested and cleared only in October by which time the direction of wind would have changed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Delhi’s problem of being covered by smoke started right after this law was implemented…This piece of legislation was passed ostensibly to preserve groundwater, the depletion of which was blamed on rice fields which supposedly used too much water and which were prone to evaporation, but this argument is a very tenuous one.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And the controversial answer is this: “The group that has been primarily responsible for exerting pressure to move away from growing rice in the name of ‘crop diversification’ is the United States Agency for International Development.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Over a period of several years, it has used the excuse of preventing the decline of groundwater to push this agenda.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>USAID has a worldwide reputation of behaving like a front group for American multinational corporations such as Monsanto, and so it should come as no surprise that Monsanto is at the forefront of the purported solution for Punjab’s problems.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Apparently, if farmers stop growing rice and replace it with Monsanto’s GMO maize, the problem will be solved.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>India’s surplus food grain supply is an uncomfortable fact for Monsanto and other proponents of GMO food who insist that the world would face a shortage of food grains if not for genetically engineered plants sold by Monsanto.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It is in this light that one must view Monsanto’s collusion with the Punjab government and their joint efforts targeting the production of rice in India.”</em>', 'USAID, Monsanto and the real reason behind Delhi’s horrific smoke season', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1004-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:06:51', '2019-11-13 11:06:51', '', 1004, 'https://marcellus.in/1004-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2420, 1, '2019-11-13 11:08:38', '2019-11-13 11:08:38', 'Moore’s law, named after Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, implied computing power would double every two years. This did hold true for 40years contributing immensely to availability of computing power to enterprises and individuals alike and the consequent gains in productivity. However, this law hasn’t kept pace in the recent past fazed by physical limitations. Does that mean that we should be prepared for more modest progress in technology going forward? Whilst there is hope through specialist chips to cloud computing to quantum computing, the strongest prospects emerge from a geo-political angle where the US and China driven by national pride and interest spend their way to finding the next big thing.\r\n\r\n<em>At the ERI’s launch in San Francisco, Kristen Baldwin, a deputy director at the Department of Defense, made it clear that the US was now in a computing race with China. “We want to align our common needs to counter China’s desire to be the pre-eminent leader in next generation semiconductors,” she said. Chip design is becoming an urgent matter of US national strategic interest, as well as intense commercial rivalry, which may yet be good news for all computer users. Historically, superpower competition has been a great way of spurring innovation.</em>', 'As Moore’s law fades, computing seeks a new dimension', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1023-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:08:38', '2019-11-13 11:08:38', '', 1023, 'https://marcellus.in/1023-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2421, 1, '2019-11-13 11:10:42', '2019-11-13 11:10:42', 'In 2011, Beth Reeks a 15-year old Welsh schoolgirl decided to write a teenage romantic novel. So after finishing her homework, she would stay up all night writing her novel. Then she chose a “route to market” which was unique. Rather than hiring a literary agent to find a publisher, she posted three chapters of her boy-meets-girl novel, The Kissing Booth, on Wattpad (an online story sharing platform). As comments poured in, Reeks turned to social media – she started a Tumblr blog and a Twitter account to promote her book.\r\n\r\nBy the time she was 16, Reeks had garnered 19 million “reads” even though her book has not yet published (in the traditional sense). Then, by the time Reeks went to college, her work had been turned into a e-book, then a paperback and this year Netflix released it as a film.\r\n\r\nThe internet has disrupted traditional publishing. Today, anybody can self-publish on platforms like Lulu, Smashwords and Kindle Direct. If the public then takes to their work then big book and film deals await the really skilful authors. The rest have the self-satisfaction of knowing that there work was made available to the wider world.', 'How a Welsh schoolgirl disrupted the publishing world', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1021-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:10:42', '2019-11-13 11:10:42', '', 1021, 'https://marcellus.in/1021-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2422, 1, '2019-11-13 11:11:56', '2019-11-13 11:11:56', 'At Marcellus, we are fans of Mailchimp. In fact you are reading this email thanks to the cost-effective and user friendly platform that Mailchimp makes available for SMEs like Marcellus. This story is about how two self-taught techies in Atlanta used their own savings and 18 years of hard work to build a business with US$600m of revenues, strong profitability and a valuation of US$4.2 billion. Leaving aside the zero use of VC funding, what makes Mailchimp even more unusual is its focus on one thing and one thing alone for 18 years – email driven marketing solutions for businesses. Even as social media fever rages, the Mailchimp founders – Ben Chestnut and Dan Kurzius – are happy to focus on a low-tech, unsexy medium of communication.', 'The New Atlanta Billionaires Behind An Unlikely Tech Unicorn', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1019-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:11:56', '2019-11-13 11:11:56', '', 1019, 'https://marcellus.in/1019-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2423, 1, '2019-11-13 11:16:42', '2019-11-13 11:16:42', 'As the latest scandal to hit Paytm ripples across the media (the CEO’s PA might have tried to extort Rs 20 crores from him or, depending on which story you believe, she might be the victim of other vested interests working in the firm), this story summarises the other scandals to have hit the firm recently (the CEO’s brother offered to help a powerful Far Right organisation spread religious propaganda and prior to that a Board member was fired for sexual misconduct). Even more interestingly, the story details how just how extensive a set of competitors Paytm has taken on.\r\n\r\nFor example, in payments – its flagship business – it is up against Google, Whatsapp, Phonepay and Mobikwick. In ecommerce, it is up against Amazon and Flipkart. Its travel is up against Makemytrip and Yatra. Barring payments, in almost every segment that Paytm operates in, it is behind its competitors (most of whom are specialist “vertical” players. Unsurprisingly therefore, the article ends on a sober note:\r\n\r\n<em>“Paytm, is the arrowhead of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in India. The cost of missing the India opportunity will be far too great for Alibaba. So it may yet survive minor scandals at a personal level.\r\nBut as Paytm— which has seen a turn of good fortune since it moved away from being a value-added services player in the telecom era to a mobile payments juggernaut— runs afoul of regulators, launches new business at breakneck speed, shuts older ones, and battles competitors in nearly every business it has gone into and takes more than a few tumbles along the way, Sharma’s beliefs will be called into question.”</em>', 'The rickety house of Paytm', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1017-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:16:42', '2019-11-13 11:16:42', '', 1017, 'https://marcellus.in/1017-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2424, 1, '2019-11-13 11:18:02', '2019-11-13 11:18:02', 'Even well established American business schools are seeing a step drop in applications for their MBA courses. Top tier MBAs like Harvard, Fuqua and Haas are seeing falling demand for their MBA courses. Given the red-hot state of the US economy, why is this happening? This article cites three drivers for the waning popularity of the traditional American MBA:\r\n\r\na) Students now have found many other ways to acquire the skills that an MBA drills into them. For example, online courses in Finance and Marketing or specialist business qualifications in say, supply-chain management, are perfectly viable – and lower cost – ways to acquire valuable skills.\r\n\r\nb) Chinese applicants want to do MBAs in China and the country’s high quality university system is catering to this demand. Alibaba, Tencent and their like are heavy recruiters of MBA graduates and they are happy hiring locally trained MBAs.\r\n\r\nc) The opportunity cost of doing a full time MBA when you are in your 20s is very high for talented people (who know they can get good jobs in Tech or Finance without the MBA). For such people, the part-time MBA is a more viable way to get a more rounded business education.', 'Business education – the waning popularity of the American MBA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1014-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:18:02', '2019-11-13 11:18:02', '', 1014, 'https://marcellus.in/1014-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2425, 1, '2019-11-13 11:19:36', '2019-11-13 11:19:36', 'As Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'A business ethics class from Australian cricket', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1036-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:19:36', '2019-11-13 11:19:36', '', 1036, 'https://marcellus.in/1036-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2426, 1, '2019-11-13 11:21:45', '2019-11-13 11:21:45', 'As Australians introspect on the back of the ball-tampering scandal in South Africa with several reviews, one such review by the Ethics Centre seems to point to the origins of the win-at-any-cost attitude to incentive mechanisms in business. <em>“The review traces some of the roots of the cultural failings to a 2011 investigation into poor performance of the Australia team, led by Don Argus, former chairman of BHP Billiton and ex-chief executive of National Australia Bank. The Argus report urged cricket’s administrators to copy business and link monetary bonuses to quantifiable goals, such as world rankings and match wins. In implementing those suggestions, the review says, Cricket Australia seems to have “merely overlooked” the ethical dimension “as irrelevant to the pursuit of enhanced performance”</em>. Indeed, now the learnings from sport can potentially help address the shortcomings of incentives sans ethical dimensions in the world of business.\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services.</strong>', 'A business ethics class from Australian cricket', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1036-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:21:45', '2019-11-13 11:21:45', '', 1036, 'https://marcellus.in/1036-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2427, 1, '2019-11-13 11:24:38', '2019-11-13 11:24:38', 'Elaborating on the power of simplicity, the authors not only drive home the point that <em>“In an increasingly complex world, simplicity is the key to success. And to mental well-being and a better life on the whole”</em> but also provide a step-wise guide of sorts to achieve simplicity – think different, deliberate practice and deep thought and relying on decisions based on frameworks or rules than judgements. The piece includes examples of simplicity from the investing world such as the successes of Systematic Investing Plan (SIP) and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). But the most fascinating example of the outperformance of businesses which make up the <strong>Simplicity Index</strong> – <em>“Simple businesses can also make for great investments. Branding firm Siegel+Gale runs the <a href=\"http://simplicityindex.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Simplicity Index</a>, which surveyed 14,000 respondents in nine countries to gather perspectives on simplicity and how industries and brands make people’s lives simpler or more complex. Siegel+Gale even made a stock portfolio comprised of the publicly traded simplest brands in their global top 10 list. That portfolio rose 433% from 2009 till 2016, compared with 135% for the S&amp;P 500.”</em>', 'Keep it simple, silly', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1034-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:24:38', '2019-11-13 11:24:38', '', 1034, 'https://marcellus.in/1034-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2428, 1, '2019-11-13 11:29:24', '2019-11-13 11:29:24', 'In case you have not been keeping up with the bickering between the RBI and the Government, Ira Duggal gives you a primer. <em>“Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel and his team have now come out at least four times to defend their policies through public speeches. While these speeches have helped explain the viewpoint of an otherwise reticent central bank, they also suggest that more amiable lines of communication between the government and the RBI are jammed.”</em>\r\n\r\nThere seem to be 3 faultlines along which the squabbling is taking place:\r\n\r\n(a) Every time a big bank fraud emerges (which is usually every month) or NPAs start swelling again, someone influential in New Delhi gives a comment to the media along the lines of “how could this happen…what was the RBI doing?”\r\n\r\n(b) Whenever the RBI increases the voltage on NPAs (by forcing banks to recognise NPAs promptly), New Delhi tries to jam the move.\r\n\r\n(c) Whenever there is a need felt to juice up economic growth or to increase system liquidity, New Delhi starts talking about why the RBI should relax the “Prompt Corrective Action” framework that it has applied to 11 PSU banks, thus prohibiting them from expanding their balance sheet.\r\n\r\nFinally, like a teenager fed up of being upbraided by out-of-touch parent, the RBI let rip last week openly highlighting some of the areas where the government is attempting to impinge on central bank independence.\r\n\r\n<em>“’Governments that do not respect central bank independence will sooner or later incur the wrath of financial markets, ignite economic fire, and come to rue the day they undermined an important regulatory institution’ said Viral Acharya, Deputy Governor, RBI. Apart from concerns over banking regulation, Acharya highlighted the government’s attempt to withdraw capital and reserves from the RBI’s balance sheet. The speech, while given by Acharya, had the full backing of Governor Patel, suggesting the message was going from one institution (the RBI) to another (the government).”</em>', 'Government Versus RBI: Dissent At The Podium', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1032-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:29:24', '2019-11-13 11:29:24', '', 1032, 'https://marcellus.in/1032-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2429, 1, '2019-11-13 11:30:38', '2019-11-13 11:30:38', 'Shudras comprise approximately half the population of India…The Mandal Commission concluded in the 1980s that the OBCs, not including the “upper” Shudra castes, represent 52 percent of all Indians…By comparison, the “forward” castes—Hindu castes outside the OBCs, Scheduled Cates and Scheduled Tribes—all together count for no more than 20 percent of the Indian population.\r\n\r\nSo, why is it that the “forward” castes still have almost complete dominance of Indian politics, business and academia with the Shudras being invisible in these spheres? Even more intriguingly, how is it that Dalits – people deemed to be outside the margins of the Hindu caste system – have made more progress over the last 40 years than the Shudras have?\r\n\r\nIn a lucid essay, Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd contends that there are 3 factors which have held back the Shudras:\r\n\r\n(a) the rise of the free market in India has greatly helped the Bania class in India – the third tier of the Indian caste system – cement their position as elites on a par with Brahmins. The rise of the BJP is in a way correlated to the rise of the Banias who have flourished as India has integrated its economy with the global economy.\r\n\r\n(b) the Brahmins &amp; Banias have ensured that their kids study English in school and then get advanced education in the top-flight universities in India or abroad. The Shudras have not had this singular focus on intellectual advancement. Their education has not only allowed the Brahmins &amp; Banias to stand toe to toe with the global elite, the lack of such an education has left the Shudras bereft of ideas for advancement. The Shudras are still waiting for a Western educated intellectual of the stature of Ambedkar to show them the way.\r\n\r\n(c) Either by design or by accident, the Shudra movement splintered around 40 years ago wherein the agrarian Shudras (Yadavs, Reddys, Nairs, Gowdas, Jats, Patels, etc) broke away and said that they did NOT want the “Other Backward Caste” reservations created by the 1990 Mandal Commission. Now 30 years on, the non-OBC Shudras find that their farms and their fields can no longer sustain them. So now they are seeking OBC status. In contrast, Ambedkar coalesced the Dalits into a coherent group and successfully got them reservations right at the dawn of India’s independence.\r\n<a href=\"https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/will-underwhelming-agriculture-growth-become-a-liability-for-bjp-in-2019/articleshow/66394330.cms</a>', 'Where Are the Shudras? Why the Shudras are lost in today’s India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1028-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:30:38', '2019-11-13 11:30:38', '', 1028, 'https://marcellus.in/1028-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2430, 1, '2019-11-13 11:37:46', '2019-11-13 11:37:46', 'A slighlty dated yet appropriate piece for the times we live in. Morgan Housel one of the most original thinkers and writers to have emerged in recent years highlights how ‘there are a million ways to get rich, but there is only way to stay rich – humility’. Whilst we all know people in real life who have gone through the experiences of Livermore in investing, Housel extends the phenomenon to companies as well. Businesses, no matter how deep the moats are, remain susceptible to disruption. Only those with a healthy dose of paranoia are able to withstand these forces and deliver excess returns over cost of capital over long periods of time.\r\n\r\n<em>“Andy Grove, Intel’s founder, put it this way: “Business success contains the seeds of its own destruction.” Scrappiness and the ability to think differently turns into complacency and the desire to keep things the same. Harvard Business Review wrote about Grove’s management philosophy in 1996:</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Grove believes that at least some fear is healthy—especially in organizations that have had a history of success. Fear can be a healthy antidote to the complacency that success often breeds. A touch of paranoia—a suspicion that the world is changing against you—is what Grove prescribes.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'Getting Rich vs. Staying Rich', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '965-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:37:46', '2019-11-13 11:37:46', '', 965, 'https://marcellus.in/965-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2431, 1, '2019-11-13 11:39:04', '2019-11-13 11:39:04', 'The pop star Taylor Swift’s business acumen is once again in full display as she comes up with a novel way to solve an age old economic problem.\r\n\r\nThe problem is as follows: when the tickets for a rock concert are sold, the fans who buy the tickets tend to span a wide spectrum of income levels (from students through to HNWs). Historically, the concert organisers would price the tickets at an “average” level to ensure that they cover all of these income categories. However, that would immediately lead to a black market wherein richer (or keener) fans would buy the tickets from poorer (less avid) fans. What Taylor Swift seems to have done with help from Ticketmaster is to have circumvented this problem by getting fans to show their hand early (and thus giving herself a chance to price them to perfection).\r\n\r\nFor the tour supporting her latest album, <em>“…she initially only sold tickets to those who registered weeks ahead of time through Ticketmaster’s new technology, called Verified Fan. Ms Swift added an additional hurdle to potential touts, unveiling a points system that gives fans who watched her videos or bought merchandise a better chance at buying tickets. Later, tickets were released on general sale but at steeper prices, with the best seats running into the thousands of dollars, slicing the arbitrage opportunity for touts.”</em>', 'Ticketmaster stages fightback against touts', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '963-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:39:04', '2019-11-13 11:39:04', '', 963, 'https://marcellus.in/963-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2434, 1, '2019-11-13 11:45:06', '2019-11-13 11:45:06', 'Cliff Asness has built AQR Capital Management into a systematic investing giant by capitalizing on two trends: the growing power of computers and the demand for lower fund fees. Today, AQR runs $226 billion in strategies built on so-called factors—behaviors that securities tend to exhibit over time. The problem is the “over time” qualifier – AQR is having a miserable 2018. So how is Asness dealing with it?\r\n\r\nFirstly, he seems to have identified why he’s doing badly: <em>“The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. That one has been bad for quite a long time, probably since just after the financial crisis. And, to answer a question you didn’t ask, our faith in that doesn’t change a drop either. So in a given year, value might have a tough time, but if quality, momentum, and carry all do well, we can do well. This year, the other ones are not making up for value.”</em>\r\n\r\nNext, he claims to have checked that the factors that have worked well for him in the past have not broken down (i.e. got arbitraged away): <em>“It’s something we actively monitor. The main tool that many people use these days to monitor the state of where we are and whether these are being arbitraged away is something called the value spread. Any factor can be thought of as a long/short portfolio. And on various value metrics—any of your favorites, price-to-earnings, sales-to-book—how expensive are the longs vs. the shorts? For the value factor itself, the longs always look cheap by definition. But for the other factors, it varies, and all of them have a range through history. None of that is at levels where the factors have not done well going forward.”</em>\r\n\r\nFinally, he does NOT think the end of QE fundamentally changes the game for quant funds (who, some believe, are glorified trend following machines): <em>“It is reasonable, it’s just absolutely not borne out by the data. A lot of these tests go back longer than the bull market in bonds. Look at the core, old-fashioned but still wonderful value and momentum factors for picking U.S. stocks. The data in that starts in the ’20s, and the initial tests on it were done in the mid-’80s. There was no bond bull market to drive that. The last 30 years have been a pretty massive, on net, bond bull market. But there have been some pretty horrible bear ones, and we don’t see a tremendous pattern there either.”</em>\r\n\r\nInterestingly, Asness happily admits in the interview that Renaissance Technologies’ remarkable Medallion fund is the best quant fund in the world. He also lauds Arrowstreet Capital in Boston and Rob Arnott’s Research Affiliates.', 'Quant Investor Cliff Asness Hasn’t Smashed His Screen This Year—Yet', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '954-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:45:06', '2019-11-13 11:45:06', '', 954, 'https://marcellus.in/954-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2435, 1, '2019-11-13 11:46:38', '2019-11-13 11:46:38', 'The authors conducted a 10-year study (dubbed the “CEO Genome Project”) to identify what sets successful CEOs apart. They tapped into a database containing more than 17,000 assessments of C-suite executives, including 2,000 CEOs and <em>“sifted through that information, looking for what distinguished candidates who got hired as CEOs from those who didn’t, and those who excelled in the role from those who underperformed.”</em>\r\n\r\nSo what did they find? As per the authors, successful CEOs display the following four behaviours (to varying extents but more than the average Joe would display in these areas):\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deciding with speed and conviction:</strong> <em>“….High-performing CEOs do not necessarily stand out for making great decisions all the time; rather, they stand out for being more decisive. They make decisions earlier, faster, and with greater conviction. They do so consistently—even amid ambiguity, with incomplete information, and in unfamiliar domains. In our data, people who were described as “decisive” were 12 times more likely to be high-performing CEOs. Good CEOs realize that a wrong decision may be better than no decision at all.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Engaging for impact:</strong> <em>“Once CEOs set a clear course for the business, they must get buy-in among their employees and other stakeholders. We found that strong performers balance keen insight into their stakeholders’ priorities with an unrelenting focus on delivering business results. They start by developing an astute understanding of their stakeholders’ needs and motivations, and then get people on board by driving for performance and aligning them around the goal of value creation. In our data, CEOs who deftly engaged stakeholders with this results orientation were 75% more successful in the role.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Adapting proactively:</strong> <em>“Our analysis shows that CEOs who excel at adapting are 6.7 times more likely to succeed. CEOs themselves told us over and over that this skill was critical. When asked what differentiates effective CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing partner of McKinsey &amp; Company, immediately offered: “It’s dealing with situations that are not in the playbook. As a CEO you are constantly faced with situations where a playbook simply cannot exist. You’d better be ready to adapt. Most CEOs know they have to divide their attention among short-, medium-, and long-term perspectives, but the adaptable CEOs spent significantly more of their time—as much as 50%—thinking about the long term.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Delivering reliably:</strong><em> “…the ability to reliably produce results was possibly the most powerful of the four essential CEO behaviors. In our sample, CEO candidates who scored high on reliability were twice as likely to be picked for the role and 15 times more likely to succeed in it.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'What Sets Successful CEOs Apart', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '952-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:46:38', '2019-11-13 11:46:38', '', 952, 'https://marcellus.in/952-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2436, 1, '2019-11-13 11:47:58', '2019-11-13 11:47:58', 'To end on a brighter note, whilst the world is understandably worried about rapid groundbreaking technological advancements potentially working against humanity if abused, here is a piece which gives hope, for a better future. To the extent, leaders of large organisations drive culture around ethics, it is refreshing to see employees effecting shared beliefs even if it means overturning company strategy. This piece in the Vox talks about how Google and Microsoft employees are expressing their stand against usage of cutting edge tech such as AI for military progress for instance, is a healthy sign of ‘employee activisim” driving ethical behaviour of corporates, especially in tech.\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus is not authorized to provide either. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.</em>', 'How tech employees are pushing Silicon Valley to put ethics before profit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '949-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:47:58', '2019-11-13 11:47:58', '', 949, 'https://marcellus.in/949-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2437, 1, '2019-11-13 11:49:42', '2019-11-13 11:49:42', 'In his typical style, the Undercover Economist debunks yet another everyday gospel – cost averaging. He shows that it works neither in theory nor has backing from historical data. Yet, he concludes it might still be the best thing to do simple because the alternatives known to us aren’t any better. However, acknowledging the shortcomings should drive discovery of a better alternative, much like many other aspects of life. <em>“Greg Davies, a behavioural finance expert at Oxford Risk, describes cost averaging as “deliberately doing something slightly inferior, to prevent the likelihood of something very inferior”. Just so. And it is worth looking for other areas where we might benefit from being guided by a slightly inferior rule of thumb — anything from “if it takes less than two minutes, do it immediately” to “never drink alone”. There are exceptions to these rules, but you may be better off just sticking to the rules.As a wise man once said, it’s such a fine line between stupid and clever. Cost averaging seems clever, but we should recognise that its true value lies in not being stupid.”</em>', 'The case for drip-feed investing is plausible, but costs more', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '947-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:49:42', '2019-11-13 11:49:42', '', 947, 'https://marcellus.in/947-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2438, 1, '2019-11-13 11:51:32', '2019-11-13 11:51:32', 'Some of us in Marcellus were still in primary school when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister. In that era, our parents would give the news broadcast on Doordarshan a miss and tune into the BBC World Service’s 9pm broadcast to understand what was happening in India. Ironically, the BBC reported both Indira Gandhi’s and Rajiv Gandhi’s assassinations before India’s state run TV did.\r\n\r\nLife has come a full circle for us because now even the private sector Indian media is as silenced as Doordarshan was in the Gandhian era. As a result, one has to once again turn to foreign media to get a more realistic perspective on matters closer to home.\r\n\r\nIn this piece, Amy Kazmin highlights, amongst other things, that:<em> “In 2008, the then Congress-party government started a quarterly employment survey, which sampled 2,000 enterprises — each with at least 10 employees — in eight labour-intensive sectors to track trends. That has since been expanded to cover some 10,000 businesses. In 2010, the government also started an annual survey of households, asking questions about employment status, type of work, frequency and earnings, capturing trends in both formal and informal jobs. </em>\r\n\r\n<em>But Mr Modi’s administration has not released the quarterly survey since March. Those results showed a paltry 136,000 new jobs from July to October 2017, far far below the numbers needed to absorb the 12m young Indians entering the labour market each year. New Delhi hasn’t released the household employment survey for the 2016-2017 financial year either, though the data is thought to have been collected.”</em>', 'Dodgy data makes it hard to judge Modi’s job promises', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '945-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:51:32', '2019-11-13 11:51:32', '', 945, 'https://marcellus.in/945-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2439, 1, '2019-11-13 11:52:42', '2019-11-13 11:52:42', 'One of the challenges of our job is that we tend to lose all sense of proportion and obsess about trivialities such as the RBI’s interest rate announcements or the latest sexual escapades of our politicians. Meanwhile, changes take place in the real world which are quite literally earth-shaking. On 6th October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) said that by 2030 and no later than mid-century, global warming will reach 1.5 degree Celsius when compared to pre-Industrial Age temperatures. No one in India seemed to care inspite of the fact that India is one of the countries most vulnerable in the face of rising temperatures.\r\n\r\nThis Indiaspend article looks at the impact of climate change on the Indian part of the Himalayas. New trees and fruit plants never seen before are sprouting up, apple production is falling and summers in the Himalayas are hotter than ever. Glaciers are retreating and river basins are threatened. Surely, you are not one of those who is investing heavily in companies with plants in Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh.', 'In the Himalayas, living the crisis that the IPCC report warns off', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '943-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:52:42', '2019-11-13 11:52:42', '', 943, 'https://marcellus.in/943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2440, 1, '2019-11-13 11:53:53', '2019-11-13 11:53:53', 'In the wake of what looks like the murder of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, in the Saudi Arabian embassy in Turkey, it is worth spending some time to understand how and why the heir apparent to the Saudi throne, Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS), is moving at such speed to stamp out all opposition to the house of Saud.\r\n\r\nThis astonishingly well research piece suggests that there are three factors at play: (1) the Trump White House sees Iran as enemy #1 in the Middle East and is clearly focused on using Israel and Saudi Arabia to neutralise Iranian influence in the region; (2) Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has built a close relationship with MBS and has this might have emboldened MBS to take steps which previous Saudi monarchs would have hesitated to take; and (3) MBS himself comes across a entitled, ambitious and ruthless young man who from his teenage days learnt how to use power to scare the living daylights out of people.\r\nIf the New Yorker’s hypothesis plays out and America and Saudi Arabia manage to isolate Iran, sideline second rung states like Qatar and make MBS de facto boss of the Middle East, it is difficult to see oil prices falling significantly.', 'Saudi Princes Quest to Remake the Middle East', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '941-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:53:53', '2019-11-13 11:53:53', '', 941, 'https://marcellus.in/941-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2441, 1, '2019-11-13 11:55:25', '2019-11-13 11:55:25', 'This investigative article based on interviews with American government officials and corporates claims that Chinese spies attacked almost 30 US companies, including Amazon and Apple “by compromising America’s technology supply chain”. So how did China pull this off? It appears that China inserted a tiny microchip, not much bigger than a grain of rice, into the servers used by American corporates, by the CIA, by the US Department of Defense, the US Navy, both Houses of Congress…the list is long and growing as the probe into the matter is still open.\r\n\r\nOnce you have read the piece, you might want to sit back and ponder at the safety of India’s corporate and government servers and, more generally, at the sheer amount of control that the Chinese can exert on our hardware – from our phones to our servers to our telecom equipment.', 'The Big Hack – How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate US Companies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '939-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:55:25', '2019-11-13 11:55:25', '', 939, 'https://marcellus.in/939-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2442, 1, '2019-11-13 11:56:50', '2019-11-13 11:56:50', 'Most psychologists and psychotherapists that you and I know will be trained in Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CBT). CBT has become increasingly popular over the past 20 years as the stresses and strains of modern life amidst a raft of bestselling books on psychology have made visiting a shrink as commonplace as visiting the local clinic for a health check-up. However, CBT has powerful psychological side-effects and research is showing that these side-effects are severe or very severe for 40% of those who are subjected to CBT.\r\n\r\nSo what are these side-effects? <em>“…the researchers estimated that 43 per cent of clients had experienced at least one unwanted side effect from CBT, equating to an average of 0.57 per client (one client had four, the maximum allowed by the research methodology): most often distress, deterioration and strains in family relations. More than 40 per cent of side effects were rated as severe or very severe, and more than a quarter lasted weeks or months, though the majority were mild or moderate and transient…Examples of severe side effects included: ‘suicidality, breakups, negative feedback from family members, withdrawal from relatives, feelings of shame and guilt, or intensive crying and emotional disturbance during sessions’.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></em>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Psychotherapy is not harmless: on the side effects of CBT', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '976-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:56:50', '2019-11-13 11:56:50', '', 976, 'https://marcellus.in/976-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2443, 1, '2019-11-13 11:58:08', '2019-11-13 11:58:08', 'Janan Ganesh is one the FT’s finest columnists and here he uses a Michael Porter-type competitive advantage framework to explain the decline of the USA. Ganesh says that until the 1990s, America could boast that its openness to immigrants, free &amp; fair elections and its free market economy were unique strengths. Now, almost all significant economies barring Russia and China can say that they too have free markets and democratic elections. Furthermore, most of the OECD economies plus city-states like Singapore and Dubai have shown that they can assimilate immigrants successfully. In short, over the last 30 years many other countries have more or less copied the things that made America stand out. In fact now these countries can highlight things that they have but America doesn’t eg. long histories and “preponderant ethnic majorities”. And around such comparisons now hinges the jockeying between nation states intent upon reversing the tide of American exceptionalism.', 'What made the US unique has become history', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '974-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:58:08', '2019-11-13 11:58:08', '', 974, 'https://marcellus.in/974-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2444, 1, '2019-11-13 11:59:17', '2019-11-13 11:59:17', 'As millions of Indians go beserk shopping online at this week’s annual binges at the likes of Amazon and Flipkart, this slightly dated yet fascinating piece by The Atlantic shows how online retailers may have regained their pricing edge over consumers who were supposed to have been empowered by the transparency of the internet. Employing an army of economists (Amazon has a dedicated jobs site for economists) combining Big Data with consumer psychology and Game theory among others, e-tailers are deploying exotic price discrimination strategies that maximise profit rather than simply offer the lowest price as popularly perceived.\r\n\r\n<em>“…its software engine isn’t built to match the lowest price out there. (That, Hariharan notes, would be a simple algorithm.) It’s built to manage consumers’ perception of price. The software identifies the goods that loom largest in consumers’ perception and keeps their prices carefully in line with competitors’ prices, if not lower. The price of everything else is allowed to drift upward….\r\n…Are other companies doing this? Four researchers in Catalonia tried to answer the question with dummy computers that mimicked the web-browsing patterns of either “affluent” or “budget conscious” customers for a week. When the personae went “shopping,” they weren’t shown different prices for the same goods. They were shown different goods. The average price of the headphones suggested for the affluent personae was four times the price of those suggested for the budget-conscious personae. Another experiment demonstrated a more direct form of price discrimination: Computers with addresses in greater Boston were shown lower prices than those in more-remote parts of Massachusetts on identical goods.”</em>', 'How Online Shopping Makes Suckers of Us All', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '972-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 11:59:17', '2019-11-13 11:59:17', '', 972, 'https://marcellus.in/972-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2445, 1, '2019-11-13 12:00:39', '2019-11-13 12:00:39', 'The legendary Michael Lewis describes in this piece how Donald Trump could not (or did not) prepare properly to become the President of the United States. It is an extraordinary story of rich people on the verge of extreme power using colourful language but not realising the enormity of the task ahead of them. After reading it you will find yourself feeling a little proud that politicians in India are not like Trump. Last we knew, they don’t shout at their aides: “<em>Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.</em>”', '‘This guy doesn’t know anything’: the inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '970-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:00:39', '2019-11-13 12:00:39', '', 970, 'https://marcellus.in/970-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2446, 1, '2019-11-13 12:01:57', '2019-11-13 12:01:57', 'If you are a budding Indian entrepreneur and are wondering how to create a giant enterprise in a highly regulated sector, you have to read this lucid piece from the FT on how Reliance Industries conquered the Indian mobile telephony sector and in the process humbled Bharti, Vodafone and Idea. The story is not exactly pretty but then one shouldn’t expect the conquest of a highly regulated sector in a country which is 131st on the UN’s Human Development Index to be a stirring tale of enterprise and innovation. Step by step the telecom regulator yielded ground until one day….', 'The creation of a mobile juggernaut', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '967-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:01:57', '2019-11-13 12:01:57', '', 967, 'https://marcellus.in/967-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2447, 1, '2019-11-13 12:19:49', '2019-11-13 12:19:49', '', 'Powerful Intelligence', 'Powerful intelligence with an electric lightning bolt strike in the shape of a human head illuminated on a storm cloud night sky as a brain function neurology health care symbol.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'powerful-intelligence', '', '', '2019-11-13 12:19:49', '2019-11-13 12:19:49', '', 889, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Your-All-Powerful-Plastic-Brain.jpeg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2449, 1, '2019-11-14 05:45:50', '2019-11-14 05:45:50', '', 'Flat designed banners', 'Flat designed banners for our mission, we have a winning team and our business strategy. Vector', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'flat-designed-banners', '', '', '2019-11-14 05:45:50', '2019-11-14 05:45:50', '', 1465, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Steps-to-Decluttering-our-Minds.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2450, 1, '2019-11-14 05:54:27', '2019-11-14 05:54:27', '', 'Tussle Between What we “Should do” & What we “Must do', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tussle-between-what-we-should-do-what-we-must-do', '', '', '2019-11-14 05:54:27', '2019-11-14 05:54:27', '', 807, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Tussle-Between-What-we-“Should-do”-What-we-“Must-do.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2451, 1, '2019-11-14 06:00:25', '2019-11-14 06:00:25', '', 'Two faces', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'two-faces', '', '', '2019-11-14 06:00:25', '2019-11-14 06:00:25', '', 817, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Working-Habits-of-Great-Minds.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2452, 1, '2019-11-14 06:06:38', '2019-11-14 06:06:38', '', 'e440a117-cd50-4b46-9903-4bf1c27c124a', 'e440a117-cd50-4b46-9903-4bf1c27c124a', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'e440a117-cd50-4b46-9903-4bf1c27c124a', '', '', '2019-11-14 06:06:38', '2019-11-14 06:06:38', '', 661, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Value-Investing-–-The-Indian-Challenge.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2457, 1, '2019-11-17 04:05:29', '2019-11-17 04:05:29', 'Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the rise of “wealth management” in India is the notion that the wealth manager will choose for her HNW clients outperforming fund managers. We have shown in our book <em>“Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em> that such a notion is NOT supported by data – pages 84 &amp; 85 of the book show using data from the Indian mutual funds’ trade body (AMFI) that there is very little persistence in the performance of India’s top 100 mutual fund schemes. In this piece, Joshua Brown, from Ritholtz, makes a similar point in the context of the United States:\r\n“<em>Persistence doesn’t exist. Financial advisors are periodically asked to defend their asset allocation choices to the clients who’ve entrusted their money to them. Financial advisors used to put themselves into the position of selecting active fund managers and then either defending the underperforming ones or making a big show out of firing them, demonstrating their value-add to the client by making manager changes.</em>\r\n<em>It doesn’t work, and not because active managers can’t beat the market or their peers.”</em>\r\nThe problem Joshua explains is lack of persistence. If you take the top 5 American equity fund managers in the decade to 2010 and look at their performance over the most recent ten years, the number of fund managers who have outperformed is ZERO! Furthermore, the averages underperformance of these five fund managers over the past decade is 5% points.\r\nBrown says: <em>“You can’t use previous track records to identify the winning or losing managers for the next period of time. There aren’t any performance-related data points that will help you do this as a financial advisor. Morningstar can’t do it. Lipper can’t do it.</em>\r\n<em>We would all love to believe that a fund that has just trounced its peers for five straight years has a higher probability of doing so over the next five years, but statistically it’s just not true.</em>\r\n<em>Ten years ago Morningstar said, based on a review of its entire database, that the fund attribute most likely to predict future fund performance vs it’s peers is having a lower cost. Past performance, brand, pedigree, staff size, etc were not significant drivers of outperformance – so an advisor doing due diligence on these qualitative aspects of a fund was certainly doing her job, but it wasn’t actually helping clients beat the market on a go-forward basis.”</em>', 'Manager of Managers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'manager-of-managers', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:09:21', '2019-11-18 04:09:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2457', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2458, 1, '2019-11-18 04:09:21', '2019-11-18 04:09:21', 'Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the rise of “wealth management” in India is the notion that the wealth manager will choose for her HNW clients outperforming fund managers. We have shown in our book <em>“Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em> that such a notion is NOT supported by data – pages 84 &amp; 85 of the book show using data from the Indian mutual funds’ trade body (AMFI) that there is very little persistence in the performance of India’s top 100 mutual fund schemes. In this piece, Joshua Brown, from Ritholtz, makes a similar point in the context of the United States:\r\n“<em>Persistence doesn’t exist. Financial advisors are periodically asked to defend their asset allocation choices to the clients who’ve entrusted their money to them. Financial advisors used to put themselves into the position of selecting active fund managers and then either defending the underperforming ones or making a big show out of firing them, demonstrating their value-add to the client by making manager changes.</em>\r\n<em>It doesn’t work, and not because active managers can’t beat the market or their peers.”</em>\r\nThe problem Joshua explains is lack of persistence. If you take the top 5 American equity fund managers in the decade to 2010 and look at their performance over the most recent ten years, the number of fund managers who have outperformed is ZERO! Furthermore, the averages underperformance of these five fund managers over the past decade is 5% points.\r\nBrown says: <em>“You can’t use previous track records to identify the winning or losing managers for the next period of time. There aren’t any performance-related data points that will help you do this as a financial advisor. Morningstar can’t do it. Lipper can’t do it.</em>\r\n<em>We would all love to believe that a fund that has just trounced its peers for five straight years has a higher probability of doing so over the next five years, but statistically it’s just not true.</em>\r\n<em>Ten years ago Morningstar said, based on a review of its entire database, that the fund attribute most likely to predict future fund performance vs it’s peers is having a lower cost. Past performance, brand, pedigree, staff size, etc were not significant drivers of outperformance – so an advisor doing due diligence on these qualitative aspects of a fund was certainly doing her job, but it wasn’t actually helping clients beat the market on a go-forward basis.”</em>', 'Manager of Managers', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2457-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:09:21', '2019-11-18 04:09:21', '', 2457, 'https://marcellus.in/2457-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2459, 1, '2019-11-17 04:11:17', '2019-11-17 04:11:17', 'Many “modern” Indians and several Westerners find the Indian concept of “arranged marriage” quaint. This fascinating piece by economist Branko Milanovic shows that increasingly marriages in the West are basically arranged – not by parents but by institutions like universities or workplaces. As a result, Western economies are increasingly going to resemble India’s – a tiny elite which breeds &amp; socialises amongst itself and a ‘left behind’ rest of the economy which votes for politicians promising pride, patriotism and sundry punishments perfidious people.\r\nIn fact Milanovic says that the Western reality is even more soul-destroying than that: from the moment you are born into the American elite, it is pretty much pre-ordained what sort of person you will marry and how your life will pan-out: <em>““When I went to [Ivy League institution], I knew that I would marry a woman I met there. Women also knew the same thing. We all knew that our pool of desirable marriage candidates would never be as vast again. And then whomever I married would be a specimen of the same genre: They were all well-educated, smart women who came from the same social class, read the same novels and newspapers, dressed the same, had the same preferences about restaurants, hiking, places to live, cars to drive and people to see, as well about how to take care of the kids and what schools they should attend. It really made almost no difference socially whom among them I married.””</em>\r\nWhy does this happen? <em>“Almost everyone at the top schools comes from more or less equally affluent families, and almost everyone adopts more or less the same values and tastes. And such mutually indistinguishable people marry each other.</em>\r\n<em>Recent research has documented a clear increase in the prevalence of homogamy, or assortative mating (people of the same or similar education status and income level marrying each other). A study based on a literature review combined with decennial data from the American Community Survey showed that the association between partners’ level of education was close to zero in 1970; in every other decade through 2010, the coefficient was positive, and it kept on rising. A different database provides another perspective on this trend; it looks at marriage statistics for American women and men who married when they were “young,” that is, between the ages of twenty and thirty-five. In 1970, only 13 percent of young American men who were in the top decile of male earners married young women who were in the top decile of female earners. By 2017, that figure had risen to almost 29 percent.”</em>\r\nIn fact, this trend of assortative mating – i.e. affluent people marrying other affluent people – is growing even more rapidly amongst Western women than men: <em>“An even more dramatic change happened for women: the percentage of young high-earning women marrying young high-earning men increased from just under 13 percent to 26.4 percent, while the percentage of rich young women marrying poor young men halved. From having no preference between rich and poor men in the 1970s, women currently prefer rich men by a ratio of almost five to one.”</em>', 'Rich Like Me: How Assortative Mating Is Driving Income Inequality Author: Branko Milanovic', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rich-like-me-how-assortative-mating-is-driving-income-inequality-author-branko-milanovic', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:13:06', '2019-11-18 04:13:06', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2459', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2460, 1, '2019-11-18 04:13:06', '2019-11-18 04:13:06', 'Many “modern” Indians and several Westerners find the Indian concept of “arranged marriage” quaint. This fascinating piece by economist Branko Milanovic shows that increasingly marriages in the West are basically arranged – not by parents but by institutions like universities or workplaces. As a result, Western economies are increasingly going to resemble India’s – a tiny elite which breeds &amp; socialises amongst itself and a ‘left behind’ rest of the economy which votes for politicians promising pride, patriotism and sundry punishments perfidious people.\r\nIn fact Milanovic says that the Western reality is even more soul-destroying than that: from the moment you are born into the American elite, it is pretty much pre-ordained what sort of person you will marry and how your life will pan-out: <em>““When I went to [Ivy League institution], I knew that I would marry a woman I met there. Women also knew the same thing. We all knew that our pool of desirable marriage candidates would never be as vast again. And then whomever I married would be a specimen of the same genre: They were all well-educated, smart women who came from the same social class, read the same novels and newspapers, dressed the same, had the same preferences about restaurants, hiking, places to live, cars to drive and people to see, as well about how to take care of the kids and what schools they should attend. It really made almost no difference socially whom among them I married.””</em>\r\nWhy does this happen? <em>“Almost everyone at the top schools comes from more or less equally affluent families, and almost everyone adopts more or less the same values and tastes. And such mutually indistinguishable people marry each other.</em>\r\n<em>Recent research has documented a clear increase in the prevalence of homogamy, or assortative mating (people of the same or similar education status and income level marrying each other). A study based on a literature review combined with decennial data from the American Community Survey showed that the association between partners’ level of education was close to zero in 1970; in every other decade through 2010, the coefficient was positive, and it kept on rising. A different database provides another perspective on this trend; it looks at marriage statistics for American women and men who married when they were “young,” that is, between the ages of twenty and thirty-five. In 1970, only 13 percent of young American men who were in the top decile of male earners married young women who were in the top decile of female earners. By 2017, that figure had risen to almost 29 percent.”</em>\r\nIn fact, this trend of assortative mating – i.e. affluent people marrying other affluent people – is growing even more rapidly amongst Western women than men: <em>“An even more dramatic change happened for women: the percentage of young high-earning women marrying young high-earning men increased from just under 13 percent to 26.4 percent, while the percentage of rich young women marrying poor young men halved. From having no preference between rich and poor men in the 1970s, women currently prefer rich men by a ratio of almost five to one.”</em>', 'Rich Like Me: How Assortative Mating Is Driving Income Inequality Author: Branko Milanovic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2459-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:13:06', '2019-11-18 04:13:06', '', 2459, 'https://marcellus.in/2459-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2461, 1, '2019-11-17 04:13:26', '2019-11-17 04:13:26', 'In a world that increasingly believes data is the new oil, we have an economics Nobel laureate suggesting data is overrated, especially when it comes to economics. Robert Shiller, the Yale professor who won the 2013 Nobel and known for his contrarian calls warning of a crash ahead of both the dotcom and housing bubbles, in his new book Narrative Economics suggests that we are better off trying to understand human behaviour and narratives thereof while predicting the future as opposed to endless data crunching. He cites the spectacular failure of most data driven models in predicting recessions across the world historically as a case in point to further his thesis. As the article shows, Shiller’s thesis has few takers given it threatens to debunk the status quo. Shiller himself acknowledges that more research needs to go into his thesis before it can be more widely accepted. <em>“There are some economists who think that the economics profession should be a mathematical discipline. To me economics and other social sciences are part of a big picture. If we are trying to stay in the mathematical world, we may become irrelevant.”</em>\r\n<em>“We are developing a new side of economics,” says Dennis Snower, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, who collaborates with Shiller. “The standard statistical analyses are no longer valid. They assume that we know the probabilities with which everything will occur. In reality, we are almost never in that position.”</em>\r\n<em>There is an opening for such a challenge in a field beset by numbingly bad forecasting. Among the misfires: the unprojected 2008-’09 financial crash, and the fatefully under-appreciated ferment of people “left behind” by globalization, in part responsible for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Economics’ miserable record goes back to the beginning of modern forecasting: Of 469 recessions around the world during the last three decades, the International Monetary Fund foresaw just four by spring of the prior year, Bloomberg reported. Private sector economists did no better: From 1992 through 2014, they projected just five of 153 recessions. In an op-ed at the New York Times in September, Shiller argued that the problem is fundamental. The leading economic indicators on which economists rely, such as interest rates and GDP growth, have been better at telling us where we have been than where we are going.</em>\r\n<em>If the Chicago school is so bad at forecasting, how can it possibly be trusted to know how best to structure an economy? So it is that, though rational market advocates may not fully realize it, the times have made them exceedingly vulnerable. “I think of the current decade as comparable to the 1930s and the 1970s in the sense that a dominant approach to economic policy has come to a crashing end,” says Binyamin Appelbaum, author of The Economists’ Hour. “In the 1930s, it was the end of laissez faire; in the 1970s, the end of Keynesianism; in the 2010s, the end of blind faith in markets.”</em>\r\n<em>…But are we excessively wed to data and numbers? A growing number of experts in diverse fields — from mountaineers to investors and economists — say we are: Our math mania has eroded our sense of intuition — Shiller says we are missing time-worn narrative clues to what’s really going on, while other thinkers say our primal “mental maps” have atrophied.</em>\r\n<em>…Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago but not a “Chicago school” disciple, said that all economic models begin with a story and that economists then use data in an attempt to stand them up. Yet, he said, “when economists hear the word ‘stories,’ they wrinkle their nose and say, ‘This is below me.’”</em>\r\n<em>…Trump is an epidemic all his own, says Shiller — “a 50-year epidemic.” “He is a very good observer of human emotions and seeing what works.” Why don’t Trump’s fans mind his tenuous relationship with the truth? In his book, Shiller cites a 2018 study in Science showing that false stories are tweeted six times more often than true ones. This is not because people prefer falsehoods, but instead that they have “the urge to titillate and surprise others,” he writes.”</em>', 'The Economist Who Wants to Ditch Math', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-economist-who-wants-to-ditch-math', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:14:47', '2019-11-18 04:14:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2461', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2462, 1, '2019-11-18 04:14:47', '2019-11-18 04:14:47', 'In a world that increasingly believes data is the new oil, we have an economics Nobel laureate suggesting data is overrated, especially when it comes to economics. Robert Shiller, the Yale professor who won the 2013 Nobel and known for his contrarian calls warning of a crash ahead of both the dotcom and housing bubbles, in his new book Narrative Economics suggests that we are better off trying to understand human behaviour and narratives thereof while predicting the future as opposed to endless data crunching. He cites the spectacular failure of most data driven models in predicting recessions across the world historically as a case in point to further his thesis. As the article shows, Shiller’s thesis has few takers given it threatens to debunk the status quo. Shiller himself acknowledges that more research needs to go into his thesis before it can be more widely accepted. <em>“There are some economists who think that the economics profession should be a mathematical discipline. To me economics and other social sciences are part of a big picture. If we are trying to stay in the mathematical world, we may become irrelevant.”</em>\r\n<em>“We are developing a new side of economics,” says Dennis Snower, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, who collaborates with Shiller. “The standard statistical analyses are no longer valid. They assume that we know the probabilities with which everything will occur. In reality, we are almost never in that position.”</em>\r\n<em>There is an opening for such a challenge in a field beset by numbingly bad forecasting. Among the misfires: the unprojected 2008-’09 financial crash, and the fatefully under-appreciated ferment of people “left behind” by globalization, in part responsible for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Economics’ miserable record goes back to the beginning of modern forecasting: Of 469 recessions around the world during the last three decades, the International Monetary Fund foresaw just four by spring of the prior year, Bloomberg reported. Private sector economists did no better: From 1992 through 2014, they projected just five of 153 recessions. In an op-ed at the New York Times in September, Shiller argued that the problem is fundamental. The leading economic indicators on which economists rely, such as interest rates and GDP growth, have been better at telling us where we have been than where we are going.</em>\r\n<em>If the Chicago school is so bad at forecasting, how can it possibly be trusted to know how best to structure an economy? So it is that, though rational market advocates may not fully realize it, the times have made them exceedingly vulnerable. “I think of the current decade as comparable to the 1930s and the 1970s in the sense that a dominant approach to economic policy has come to a crashing end,” says Binyamin Appelbaum, author of The Economists’ Hour. “In the 1930s, it was the end of laissez faire; in the 1970s, the end of Keynesianism; in the 2010s, the end of blind faith in markets.”</em>\r\n<em>…But are we excessively wed to data and numbers? A growing number of experts in diverse fields — from mountaineers to investors and economists — say we are: Our math mania has eroded our sense of intuition — Shiller says we are missing time-worn narrative clues to what’s really going on, while other thinkers say our primal “mental maps” have atrophied.</em>\r\n<em>…Raghuram Rajan, a professor at the University of Chicago but not a “Chicago school” disciple, said that all economic models begin with a story and that economists then use data in an attempt to stand them up. Yet, he said, “when economists hear the word ‘stories,’ they wrinkle their nose and say, ‘This is below me.’”</em>\r\n<em>…Trump is an epidemic all his own, says Shiller — “a 50-year epidemic.” “He is a very good observer of human emotions and seeing what works.” Why don’t Trump’s fans mind his tenuous relationship with the truth? In his book, Shiller cites a 2018 study in Science showing that false stories are tweeted six times more often than true ones. This is not because people prefer falsehoods, but instead that they have “the urge to titillate and surprise others,” he writes.”</em>', 'The Economist Who Wants to Ditch Math', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2461-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:14:47', '2019-11-18 04:14:47', '', 2461, 'https://marcellus.in/2461-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2463, 1, '2019-11-17 04:15:03', '2019-11-17 04:15:03', 'As the movement for data privacy gains momentum, yet another whistleblower complaint shows how big tech may be disregarding laws to gain access to personal data that can be used to further its business interests. Google’s parent Alphabet has been pursuing ways to use Artificial Intelligence to improve healthcare delivery and outcomes, including its acquisition earlier this week of Fitbit. However, this time the whistleblower has accused Google of illegally gaining access to more than 50m patients’ personal medical information, allegedly in its bid “to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products.”\r\n<em>“The anonymous whistleblower has posted a video on the social media platform Daily Motion that contains a document dump of hundreds of images of confidential files relating to Project Nightingale. The secret scheme, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, involves the transfer to Google of healthcare data held by Ascension, the second-largest healthcare provider in the US. The data is being transferred with full personal details including name and medical history and can be accessed by Google staff.</em>\r\n<em>… Project Nightingale is understood to be by far the largest data transfer of its kind so far in the healthcare field. It will cover the entire spread of Ascension, a Catholic network of 2,600 hospitals, clinics and other medical outlets. Google has entered into similar partnerships on a much smaller scale with clients such as the Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine. But in that case all the data handed over to the search giant was encrypted, with keys being held only on the medical side.</em>\r\n<em>The deal between Google and Ascension to go ahead with the data transfer was formally signed on Monday, hours after the Wall Street Journal broke the story.</em>\r\n<em>The Guardian does not know the identity of the whistleblower. They are one of about 300 employees working on Project Nightingale, approximately half on the Google side and half with Ascension.</em>\r\n<em>… Google Cloud told the Wall Street Journal that the aim was “ultimately improving outcomes, reducing costs, and saving lives”. In a statement, Ascension said: “All work related to Ascension’s engagement with Google is HIPAA compliant and underpinned by a robust data security and protection effort and adherence to Ascension’s strict requirements for data handling.” In the video, the whistleblower begs to disagree. In annotations that run over the</em>\r\n<em>leaked documents, they suggest that in future Google might be able to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products. “Patients haven’t been told how Ascension is using their data and have not consented to their data being transferred to the cloud or being used by Google. At the very least patients should be told and be able to opt in or opt out,” the whistleblower writes.”</em>', 'Google\'s secret cache of medical data includes names and full details of millions - whistleblower', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'googles-secret-cache-of-medical-data-includes-names-and-full-details-of-millions-whistleblower', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:18:10', '2019-11-18 04:18:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2463', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2464, 1, '2019-11-18 04:17:08', '2019-11-18 04:17:08', 'As the movement for data privacy gains momentum, yet another whistleblower complaint shows how big tech may be disregarding laws to gain access to personal data that can be used to further its business interests. Google’s parent Alphabet has been pursuing ways to use Artificial Intelligence to improve healthcare delivery and outcomes, including its acquisition earlier this week of Fitbit. However, this time the whistleblower has accused Google of illegally gaining access to more than 50m patients’ personal medical information, allegedly in its bid “to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products.”\r\n<em>“The anonymous whistleblower has posted a video on the social media platform Daily Motion that contains a document dump of hundreds of images of confidential files relating to Project Nightingale. The secret scheme, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, involves the transfer to Google of healthcare data held by Ascension, the second-largest healthcare provider in the US. The data is being transferred with full personal details including name and medical history and can be accessed by Google staff.</em>\r\n<em>… Project Nightingale is understood to be by far the largest data transfer of its kind so far in the healthcare field. It will cover the entire spread of Ascension, a Catholic network of 2,600 hospitals, clinics and other medical outlets. Google has entered into similar partnerships on a much smaller scale with clients such as the Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine. But in that case all the data handed over to the search giant was encrypted, with keys being held only on the medical side.</em>\r\n<em>The deal between Google and Ascension to go ahead with the data transfer was formally signed on Monday, hours after the Wall Street Journal broke the story.</em>\r\n<em>The Guardian does not know the identity of the whistleblower. They are one of about 300 employees working on Project Nightingale, approximately half on the Google side and half with Ascension.</em>\r\n<em>… Google Cloud told the Wall Street Journal that the aim was “ultimately improving outcomes, reducing costs, and saving lives”. In a statement, Ascension said: “All work related to Ascension’s engagement with Google is HIPAA compliant and underpinned by a robust data security and protection effort and adherence to Ascension’s strict requirements for data handling.” In the video, the whistleblower begs to disagree. In annotations that run over the</em>\r\n<em>leaked documents, they suggest that in future Google might be able to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products. “Patients haven’t been told how Ascension is using their data and have not consented to their data being transferred to the cloud or being used by Google. At the very least patients should be told and be able to opt in or opt out,” the whistleblower writes.”</em>', 'Google\'s secret cache of medical data includes names and full details of millions - whistleblower', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2463-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:17:08', '2019-11-18 04:17:08', '', 2463, 'https://marcellus.in/2463-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2465, 1, '2019-11-18 04:18:10', '2019-11-18 04:18:10', 'As the movement for data privacy gains momentum, yet another whistleblower complaint shows how big tech may be disregarding laws to gain access to personal data that can be used to further its business interests. Google’s parent Alphabet has been pursuing ways to use Artificial Intelligence to improve healthcare delivery and outcomes, including its acquisition earlier this week of Fitbit. However, this time the whistleblower has accused Google of illegally gaining access to more than 50m patients’ personal medical information, allegedly in its bid “to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products.”\r\n<em>“The anonymous whistleblower has posted a video on the social media platform Daily Motion that contains a document dump of hundreds of images of confidential files relating to Project Nightingale. The secret scheme, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, involves the transfer to Google of healthcare data held by Ascension, the second-largest healthcare provider in the US. The data is being transferred with full personal details including name and medical history and can be accessed by Google staff.</em>\r\n<em>… Project Nightingale is understood to be by far the largest data transfer of its kind so far in the healthcare field. It will cover the entire spread of Ascension, a Catholic network of 2,600 hospitals, clinics and other medical outlets. Google has entered into similar partnerships on a much smaller scale with clients such as the Colorado Center for Personalized Medicine. But in that case all the data handed over to the search giant was encrypted, with keys being held only on the medical side.</em>\r\n<em>The deal between Google and Ascension to go ahead with the data transfer was formally signed on Monday, hours after the Wall Street Journal broke the story.</em>\r\n<em>The Guardian does not know the identity of the whistleblower. They are one of about 300 employees working on Project Nightingale, approximately half on the Google side and half with Ascension.</em>\r\n<em>… Google Cloud told the Wall Street Journal that the aim was “ultimately improving outcomes, reducing costs, and saving lives”. In a statement, Ascension said: “All work related to Ascension’s engagement with Google is HIPAA compliant and underpinned by a robust data security and protection effort and adherence to Ascension’s strict requirements for data handling.” In the video, the whistleblower begs to disagree. In annotations that run over the</em>\r\n<em>leaked documents, they suggest that in future Google might be able to sell or share the data with third parties, or create patient profiles against which they can advertise healthcare products. “Patients haven’t been told how Ascension is using their data and have not consented to their data being transferred to the cloud or being used by Google. At the very least patients should be told and be able to opt in or opt out,” the whistleblower writes.”</em>', 'Google\'s secret cache of medical data includes names and full details of millions - whistleblower', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2463-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:18:10', '2019-11-18 04:18:10', '', 2463, 'https://marcellus.in/2463-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2633, 1, '2019-12-30 14:41:00', '2019-12-30 14:41:00', 'When the economist, Thomas Phillipon, moved to America in 1999, he found a country where high quality products were available at “dazzlingly cheap” prices. <em>“But over the past two decades, Mr Philippon writes in “The Great Reversal”, this paradise has been lost. Europeans now enjoy cheap cross-continent flights, high-street banking, and phone and internet services; Americans are often at the mercy of indifferent corporate giants.”</em>\r\nWhy have American consumers ended up getting a raw deal over the past decade? <em>“Much that has happened to the American economy since the 1990s has not been to the typical worker’s advantage. Growth in output, wages and productivity has slowed. Inequality has risen, as have the market share and profitability of the most dominant firms. Economics journals are packed with papers on these trends, many of which argue that the dominance of big firms bears some blame for other ills. Between 1987 and 2016 the share of employment accounted for by firms with over 5,000 employees rose from 28% to 34%. Between 1997 and 2012, this newspaper reported in 2016, the average share of revenues accounted for by the top four firms in each of 900 economic sectors grew from 26% to 32%.”</em>\r\nDepending on what their political persuasions are, two opposing camps of economists are taking divergent views on the rise of mega corporations in America. In the red corner so to speak – the corner in which Mr Phillipon sits, economists argue that <em>“domestic competition has been weakened by lax antitrust enforcement, anticompetitive practices and regulatory changes friendly to powerful firms.”</em>\r\nIn the blue corner, economists say <em>“that concentration is rising because of the success of superstar firms—highly innovative and productive companies that have shoved aside unfit competitors.”</em>\r\nTo the extent that these trends being seen in America are to a large extent also being replicated in India, it is essential that we get a grip on the underlying drivers of these trends. Which corner is correct – red or blue?\r\n<em>“If concentration is caused by ultra-productive firms outcompeting weaker rivals, then investment ought to rise as those firms scale up to exploit their competitive edge. Investment, however, has been disappointing across the American economy. In the 1990s a statistic called Tobin’s q (a measure of a firm’s market value relative to the cost of replacing its assets, named after an economist, James Tobin) closely tracked rates of net investment. A high Tobin’s q indicates that future profits are likely to be high relative to the cost of expanding production. That suggests leading firms should scale up or see a flood of investment by competitors seeking to divert part of that profit stream. In this millennium, however, investment has lagged behind what one would expect, given the level of Tobin’s q across the economy. A finer-grained analysis shows that the most concentrated sectors account for nearly all the investment shortfall.”</em> So it would appear that the reds’ argument has a lot going for it.\r\nThe red argument seems even stronger when you consider the evidence (or lack thereof) of superstar firms being drivers of productivity: <em>“If concentration is mainly caused by the triumph of superstar firms, it should be rising. Here the data are murkier. The authors of “The fall of the labour share and the rise of superstar firms”, a forthcoming paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, find a clear link between size and productivity (bigger firms are more productive) and between industry concentration and patenting (which they use as a proxy for innovation). But the relationship between concentration and measures of productivity is less clear, particularly outside manufacturing. Mr Philippon, on the other hand, finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between concentration and productivity in the 1990s but not more recently. What seems clear is that even as concentration has risen across the economy over the past two decades, the rate of productivity growth has not. If superstar firms are indeed a force for concentration, their unique capabilities have not translated into broader gains for the American economy.”</em>\r\nFor those of us living in India, Phillipon’s research points to a pattern of behaviour by large American firms which echoes what we see in India on a daily basis: <em>“America’s tech giants have gobbled up competitors and spent lavishly on political donations and lobbying. There is no guarantee that superstars, having achieved dominance, will defend it through innovation and investment rather than anti-competitive behaviour.”</em>\r\nIn India, as in America, there are no easy answers to this political and economic capture. Not only will large, dominant, ambitious firms NOT give way because you and I don’t see the benefit of their dominance, it is not obvious that dismantling these firms will necessarily produce a more efficient economy. This is especially so in a poor country like India where cost of capital is high and, hence, a large company’s reinvestment of internal accruals gives it access to low cost capital.', 'Are anti-competitive firms killing American innovation?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2632-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 14:41:00', '2019-12-30 14:41:00', '', 2632, 'https://marcellus.in/2632-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2468, 1, '2019-11-17 04:20:10', '2019-11-17 04:20:10', 'Earlier this month, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bff91e03fc&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dbff91e03fc%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1574135287777000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEeHxzvmcpOyGVhcXw7zRYLs3RArw\">piece</a> on how there is increasing research from psychologists on the trait of humility and how it can be potentially inculcated through training. It is often said intellectual humility is perhaps the most important personality trait for an investor. A new study shows how investing in companies run by humble CEOs can be lucrative as well. Psychologists rated a sample of 185 CEOs on various measures of humility and found that shares of companies run by humble CEOs are likely to outperform by atleast 7% annually. And this the article attributes to the low balling of expectations and the eventual underestimation of earnings by the analyst community, which then raises the probability of the company beating estimates consistently. In our own experience at Marcellus, we have found management teams which exhibit a degree of humility often bordering on paranoia are likely to take initiatives to tackle disruptive forces as opposed to their brasher counterparts.\r\n<em>“A new study accepted for publication in the Strategic Management Journal found that analysts tend to significantly underestimate the earnings potential of companies run by humble chief executive officers. That leads to artificially low earnings forecasts from the analysts, which the firms can then more easily meet or beat.</em>\r\n<em>While humble CEOs aren’t any more or less capable leaders than their more brash peers, they tend to benefit from an “expectation discount,” which can lead to increased market returns for their companies following earnings announcements, says Federico Aime, a professor of management at the Oklahoma State University’s Spears School of Business and one of the study’s authors.</em>\r\n<em>The paper found that the magnitude of the boost depended on how humble the CEO was, but that the effect could result in at least a 7% increase in total shareholder returns annually.”</em>', 'Why investors want to bet on humble CEOs?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-investors-want-to-bet-on-humble-ceos', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:21:35', '2019-11-18 04:21:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2468', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2469, 1, '2019-11-18 04:21:35', '2019-11-18 04:21:35', 'Earlier this month, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bff91e03fc&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dbff91e03fc%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1574135287777000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEeHxzvmcpOyGVhcXw7zRYLs3RArw\">piece</a> on how there is increasing research from psychologists on the trait of humility and how it can be potentially inculcated through training. It is often said intellectual humility is perhaps the most important personality trait for an investor. A new study shows how investing in companies run by humble CEOs can be lucrative as well. Psychologists rated a sample of 185 CEOs on various measures of humility and found that shares of companies run by humble CEOs are likely to outperform by atleast 7% annually. And this the article attributes to the low balling of expectations and the eventual underestimation of earnings by the analyst community, which then raises the probability of the company beating estimates consistently. In our own experience at Marcellus, we have found management teams which exhibit a degree of humility often bordering on paranoia are likely to take initiatives to tackle disruptive forces as opposed to their brasher counterparts.\r\n<em>“A new study accepted for publication in the Strategic Management Journal found that analysts tend to significantly underestimate the earnings potential of companies run by humble chief executive officers. That leads to artificially low earnings forecasts from the analysts, which the firms can then more easily meet or beat.</em>\r\n<em>While humble CEOs aren’t any more or less capable leaders than their more brash peers, they tend to benefit from an “expectation discount,” which can lead to increased market returns for their companies following earnings announcements, says Federico Aime, a professor of management at the Oklahoma State University’s Spears School of Business and one of the study’s authors.</em>\r\n<em>The paper found that the magnitude of the boost depended on how humble the CEO was, but that the effect could result in at least a 7% increase in total shareholder returns annually.”</em>', 'Why investors want to bet on humble CEOs?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2468-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:21:35', '2019-11-18 04:21:35', '', 2468, 'https://marcellus.in/2468-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2470, 1, '2019-11-17 04:22:24', '2019-11-17 04:22:24', 'In meetings with investors, we are often asked why we don’t have any tech companies in our portfolio and by that aren’t we missing out on the next big thing? We find this fascination for tech stocks quite interesting. It is understandable given the immense amount of wealth created by the likes of FANMAG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple, Google) and also the excitement of being associated with something that can meaningfully change the way the world works. However, Simon Edelsten of Artemis, a fund management house, warns of the pitfalls. He highlights how tech often comes with a lot of hype initially and it is never easy to see through it. Recent example of WeWork where the hype masked the fact that it was hardly a tech company and yet many an investor burnt their fingers. Furthermore, the need to invest in tech way before a business model to monetise the tech means you are often at risk if competition replicates the tech but also with a means to monetise. Whilst exactly not similar, he shows the competition from Apple and Disney to Netflix who has racked up a mountain of debt procuring content. Finally, even if it does make money, valuing tech with all the uncertainties adds another layer of challenge.\r\n“<em>Tesla is a great example of a company that has made some staggering advances in car technology. This is reflected in its valuation multiples — a price/earnings ratio of 74 times for next year. But it lacks the infrastructure and manufacturing experience of the traditional giants such as Ford (on a p/e of 6.7 and throwing off a 7 per cent dividend) and Toyota (on 11x p/e and yielding 2.9 per cent). Can it beat them into submission, or is it simply showing them the way forward? Most of the world’s major car companies are working like fury on electric car designs, and the market is going to become hugely competitive in the years ahead. Which firms will survive and thrive? Tesla is likely to take a share, but how large, how profitable and how sustainable will it be? And how do you value it? Even if lots of people buy a gizmo it does not mean investors will make any money. When digital cameras came in, investors in Kodak suffered, but shares in winning digital camera makers like Canon and Fuji did not do well either as the new industry was over-competitive.</em>\r\n<em>….If you cannot pick a clear winner, consider other ways to profit with less risk. Very few of the 300,000 prospectors who rushed to California after 1849, proclaiming “there’s gold in them thar hills”, came away with much of it. The most reliably successful entrepreneurs were those selling picks and shovels and food, such as jeans inventor Levi Strauss.</em>\r\n<em>In the modern equivalent of the California gold rush, investors should follow the same approach. There is much hope for tools such as artificial intelligence, facial recognition or autonomous driving. All these applications need fast, efficient semiconductors, and each new design needs to be checked and tested before being sent to the very expensive fabrication plant. The world leaders in computer-aided design and checking are Synopsys and Cadence (the investment trust that I manage invests in both). Firms such as these are not glamorous. They may not become what investors like to call a 10-bagger, but they are probably a more reliable way of generating money from tech than many overhyped alternatives..”</em>', 'Tech enhances our lives — but is it a good investment?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tech-enhances-our-lives-but-is-it-a-good-investment-2', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:23:28', '2019-11-18 04:23:28', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2470', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2471, 1, '2019-11-18 04:23:28', '2019-11-18 04:23:28', 'In meetings with investors, we are often asked why we don’t have any tech companies in our portfolio and by that aren’t we missing out on the next big thing? We find this fascination for tech stocks quite interesting. It is understandable given the immense amount of wealth created by the likes of FANMAG (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple, Google) and also the excitement of being associated with something that can meaningfully change the way the world works. However, Simon Edelsten of Artemis, a fund management house, warns of the pitfalls. He highlights how tech often comes with a lot of hype initially and it is never easy to see through it. Recent example of WeWork where the hype masked the fact that it was hardly a tech company and yet many an investor burnt their fingers. Furthermore, the need to invest in tech way before a business model to monetise the tech means you are often at risk if competition replicates the tech but also with a means to monetise. Whilst exactly not similar, he shows the competition from Apple and Disney to Netflix who has racked up a mountain of debt procuring content. Finally, even if it does make money, valuing tech with all the uncertainties adds another layer of challenge.\r\n“<em>Tesla is a great example of a company that has made some staggering advances in car technology. This is reflected in its valuation multiples — a price/earnings ratio of 74 times for next year. But it lacks the infrastructure and manufacturing experience of the traditional giants such as Ford (on a p/e of 6.7 and throwing off a 7 per cent dividend) and Toyota (on 11x p/e and yielding 2.9 per cent). Can it beat them into submission, or is it simply showing them the way forward? Most of the world’s major car companies are working like fury on electric car designs, and the market is going to become hugely competitive in the years ahead. Which firms will survive and thrive? Tesla is likely to take a share, but how large, how profitable and how sustainable will it be? And how do you value it? Even if lots of people buy a gizmo it does not mean investors will make any money. When digital cameras came in, investors in Kodak suffered, but shares in winning digital camera makers like Canon and Fuji did not do well either as the new industry was over-competitive.</em>\r\n<em>….If you cannot pick a clear winner, consider other ways to profit with less risk. Very few of the 300,000 prospectors who rushed to California after 1849, proclaiming “there’s gold in them thar hills”, came away with much of it. The most reliably successful entrepreneurs were those selling picks and shovels and food, such as jeans inventor Levi Strauss.</em>\r\n<em>In the modern equivalent of the California gold rush, investors should follow the same approach. There is much hope for tools such as artificial intelligence, facial recognition or autonomous driving. All these applications need fast, efficient semiconductors, and each new design needs to be checked and tested before being sent to the very expensive fabrication plant. The world leaders in computer-aided design and checking are Synopsys and Cadence (the investment trust that I manage invests in both). Firms such as these are not glamorous. They may not become what investors like to call a 10-bagger, but they are probably a more reliable way of generating money from tech than many overhyped alternatives..”</em>', 'Tech enhances our lives — but is it a good investment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2470-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-18 04:23:28', '2019-11-18 04:23:28', '', 2470, 'https://marcellus.in/2470-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2472, 1, '2019-11-18 05:08:22', '2019-11-18 05:08:22', '', 'Yoga meditation silhouette pose', 'Yoga meditation in lotus pose by man silhouette with moon and purple dramatic sunset sky background. Free space for text and can be used as template for web-sit', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'yoga-meditation-silhouette-pose', '', '', '2019-11-18 05:08:22', '2019-11-18 05:08:22', '', 841, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Can-Meditation-Help-Us-at-Work.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2473, 1, '2019-11-18 05:18:52', '2019-11-18 05:18:52', '', 'Business analytics. Calculator and  financial reports.', 'Business analytics. Calculator, financial reports and graphics.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'business-analytics-calculator-and-financial-reports', '', '', '2019-11-18 05:18:52', '2019-11-18 05:18:52', '', 540, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/The-Big-Shift-in-Small-Town-India.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2476, 1, '2019-11-19 05:46:09', '2019-11-19 05:46:09', '', 'Concept Of Open Mind', 'Concept of open mind as a a deep mountain cliff shaped as a human head with a ladder leading to the outside towards a glowing sun as a psychology and mental health metaphor for spiritual discovery.', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'concept-of-open-mind', '', '', '2019-11-19 05:46:09', '2019-11-19 05:46:09', '', 543, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Does-Spirituality-Help-Improve-Clarity-of-Thought.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2478, 1, '2019-11-19 06:05:56', '2019-11-19 06:05:56', '', 'Business man point to falling graph of stock market', 'Business man point to falling graph of stock market', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'business-man-point-to-falling-graph-of-stock-market', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:05:56', '2019-11-19 06:05:56', '', 384, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Fit-2-Trip-Keyword-and-Backlink-Analysis.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2479, 1, '2019-11-19 06:29:13', '2019-11-19 06:29:13', '', 'Large business meeting', 'Large business meeting', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'large-business-meeting', '', '', '2019-11-19 06:29:13', '2019-11-19 06:29:13', '', 366, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Spotting-the-Liar-in-the-Boardroom.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2481, 1, '2019-11-19 11:47:17', '2019-11-19 11:47:17', '<strong>As study after study shows that over 80% of large cap Indian mutual funds underperform their benchmark, the intellectual legacy that John Bogle left behind becomes ever more relevant for Indian investors. Beyond the idea of index funds, Bogle identified several deeper truths about our profession – the importance of minimising costs, of being sceptical of auditors &amp; brokers, and of giving our clients a stake in our success – which are very relevant in India today.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Many investors are under the mistaken impression that mutual funds are a secure and relatively matter-of-fact what to gain the benefits of diversification at low cost. In reality…mutual funds have a large incentive to benefit from the economics of their business, rather than look after their investors’ long-term wealth. Thus we see some mutual funds not only charge outsized fees, but also practice portfolio management strategies which leave investors behind market index averages…” – </em><strong>Arthur Levitt</strong>, the longest serving SEC Chairman, in the Foreword for ‘The Clash of Cultures: Investment vs Speculation’ (2012) by John Bogle\r\n\r\n<em>“If a statue is ever erected to honour the person who has done the most for American investors, the hands down choice should be Jack Bogle. For decades, Jack has urged investors to invest in ultra-low-cost index funds. In his crusade, he amassed only a tiny percentage of the wealth that has typically flowed to managers who have promised their investors large rewards while delivering them nothing – or, as in our bet, less than nothing – of added value. In his early years, Jack was frequently mocked by the investment-management industry. Today, however, he has the satisfaction of knowing that he helped millions of investors realize far better returns on their savings than they otherwise would have earned.”</em> – <strong>Warren Buffett</strong> on John Bogle in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2016 Annual Report\r\n\r\n<strong>Bogle’s journey from Princeton University student to investment legend</strong>\r\nBorn in 1929 in Montclair, New Jersey, to an American family hit hard by the Great Depression, John Clifton Bogle, is arguably the most radically influential figure to emerge from the world of investing in the past hundred years. Having studied economics and investing at Princeton University and having written a 130 page thesis on the US mutual fund industry – titled <em>‘The Economic Role of the Investment Company’ </em>– whilst at Princeton, Bogle was by his mid-20s one of the smartest thinkers in the American investment management industry.\r\n\r\nHis industry knowledge and work ethic ensured a rapid ascent at Wellington Fund and in 1970, aged 41, he was named as the Chairman of this pioneering mutual fund house. Four years later, an unwise merger approved by Bogle led to his downfall and he was “fired with enthusiasm”, amidst much acrimony, by the Board of Wellington. In one of the most celebrated comebacks in American business, Bogle not only bounced back to found Vanguard Company in 1974 but also by pioneering a new style of investing which has become over the last 20 years the default method for investing in developed markets like the United States.\r\n\r\nWhen Bogle launched Vanguard, the great and the good in America launched an attack on him. The Chairman of Fidelity, Edward Johnson, led the sceptics assuring the world that Fidelity had no intention of following Vanguard’s lead. <em>“I can’t believe that the great mass of investors are going to be satisfied with just receiving average returns. The name of the game is to be the best” </em>said Mr Johnson (Fidelity now runs nearly $500 billion of indexed assets.) [Source: Gary Brinson Lecture delivered by Bogle at Washington State University on 13 April 20014.]\r\n\r\nNever one to care too much about what the establishment was saying, Bogle drew inspiration from the pathbreaking research published by Nobel laureate, Paul Samuelson of the University of Chicago. Samuelson is the foremost academic economist of the preceding century not least because of his seminal textbook <em>‘Economics: An Introductory Analysis’</em> which was first published in 1948 and has acted as a primer on the subject for millions of youngsters across the world. Amongst Samuelson’s several pathbreaking insights, the one which has had the greatest impact on financial markets is the “Efficient Markets” theory which says that asset prices fully reflect all available information. By implication therefore it is impossible to \"beat the market\" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.\r\n\r\nBogle took the Efficient Markets theory to heart and was the amongst the first executives in the mutual fund industry to fully understand its profound implication, namely, it makes little or no sense to pay juicy fees to a fund manager to manage your money given that the fund manager has little or no chance of consistently beating the market. Thus was born Bogle’s breakthrough idea – in 1975 Vanguard launched the world  first index mutual fund. Instead of beating the index and charging high fees, the index fund would mimic the index performance over the long run—thus achieving higher returns with lower costs than the costs associated with actively managed funds.\r\n\r\nTake the following example – suppose two people - Sarbani and Saurabh - graduate from university on the same day and get jobs with identical salaries. Assume further that throughout their 40-year long careers, they save identical amounts and invest with fund managers who generate identical returns of 12% per annum (before fees). The only difference is that Sarbani uses an index fund which charges 0.1% per annum and Saurabh uses and active fund manager which charges 2.5% per annum. As a result, over her entire career, Sarbani generates 2.4% per annum more than Saurabh and thus retires with a corpus <strong><u>2.3x</u></strong> as large as Saurabh’s! This is because fees and expenses borne by customers of mutual funds have an exponential impact – the 2.4% that Sarbani saves relative to Saurabh compounds over time to make her twice as rich as Saurabh.\r\n\r\nIn fact, Bogle’s central insight – that actively managed mutual funds are not worth the fees they charge – has a deeper implication. Bogle figured out that even if the Efficient Markets theory does <strong>not</strong> hold – and therefore even if markets were “wildly inefficient” – by definition, around half of the fund managers would underperform the index BEFORE fees &amp; expenses were taken into account. Therefore, once you subtract fees &amp; expenses from fund performance you get:\r\n<em>Net returns to the investor = Gross returns from the fund – Fees &amp; expenses of running the fund.</em>\r\nOn this basis, well over half the fund managers will underperform the market. In separate studies, Bogle, Morningstar and Rob Arnott (of Research Affiliates) have found that over the past three decades, between 80-90% of US mutual funds underperform the index. In India, if we take the last three years’ track record (upto the end of 2018), the ratio for underperforming large cap mutual funds is around 90% i.e. <strong>barely 10% of large cap mutual funds in India are able to justify their fees.</strong> (Source: <a href=\"https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-india-year-end-2018.pdf /rel=\">https://us.spindices.com/documents/spiva/spiva-india-year-end-2018.pdf</a>)\r\n\r\nEven more remarkably, as we highlight in the next section, it is impossible to predict on a forward looking basis which large cap mutual funds will outperform going forward i.e. outperformance by such funds seems to be a random affair. Furthermore, in India as in the US, most mutual funds which outperform are small (in terms of the assets under management). In particular, in India we have noticed that once a large cap fund exceeds Rs 10,000 crores (US$ 1.4 billion) in AUM, outperformance ebbs away.\r\n\r\nIn 1975, Bogle took this simple insight with regards to the importance of costs and proceeded to build a firm which crushed the cost of money management in several ways including:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Portfolio turnover related costs:</strong> In order to minimise the costs associated with brokerage, price impact and taxes, Bogle believed that portfolio turnover should be at most 3-5%. In most large stockmarkets, most funds have portfolio turnover in excess of 30%. Over a ten year period in India, such a fund will end up giving away a quarter of the investor’s wealth to stockbrokers (via commissions) and to the taxman (vis transaction taxes and capital gains taxes).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Advertising costs</strong>: In his book ‘Clash of Cultures’, Bogle wrote that <em>“There is no evidence whatsoever that advertising benefits fund investors by bringing in an amount of new assets adequate to create economies of scale that offset the amount spent.” </em>As a result, for the first 30 years of its existence Vanguard barely advertised. Over the past decade it has stepped up its spend but even now: (a) its spends much less on advertising than it mainstream competitors; (b) almost all of its spend is on digital media (no mainstream newspaper or TV spend); and (c) every dollar spent on advertising is tracked carefully. (Source: <a href=\"https://adage.com/article/special-report-marketer-alist-2012/vanguard-proves-pays-advertise/238421/rel=\"nofollow\">https://adage.com/article/special-report-marketer-alist-2012/vanguard-proves-pays-advertise/238421/</a>)</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Distribution costs</strong>: The world over fund managers use distributors/brokers to sell their products to the ultimate investor. In return, the fund manager pays commissions to these intermediaries. In India these commissions can be as high as 70% of the fees paid by the ultimate investor to the fund manager. When Vanguard was two years old, Bogle severed links with all the intermediaries who sold Vanguard’s funds and moved the entire sales &amp; marketing function in-house. Bogle thus gave the world its first fund with no distribution costs associated with it. In 2013, SEBI declared that all Indian mutual funds had to a have ‘direct’ option i.e. an option wherein the investor can invest directly without having to go through a distributor.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAs a result of Bogle’s vision, the expense ratio for Vanguard’s funds is 11bps compared to the 64bps for an average mutual fund in America. (Expense ratio is a mutual fund\'s annual operating expenses, expressed as a percentage of the fund\'s average net assets.) That 53bps differential is huge. It almost ensures that Vanguard’s funds will outperform the vast majority of actively managed funds on a consistent basis.. As a result, Vanguard’s clients would make much more money than the clients of most active managers. Such is the centrality of costs in the world of investing that Morningstar and Bogle have shown in separate number crunching exercises that the most reliable predictor of a fund’s future performance is its expense ratio.\r\n\r\nIn India, the cost differential between active vs passive investing is much bigger than it is in the US. Large cap ETFs in India are now available with an expense ratio of 5bps. In contrast, the expense ratio of large cap mutual funds in Indian is in excess of 100bps. Assuming an expense ratio advantage of just 100bps in favour of ETFs implies that Indian investors would save Rs 800 crores (US$120 million) per annum if they invested in ETFs rather than large cap mutual funds. Given that less than 4% of the Indian mutual fund industry’s AUM is in passively managed assets, you can draw your conclusions regarding which direction, the share of index funds and ETFs will go in India. (Source: https://www.livemint.com/Money/5uy7XNtE6cEXxoa5UfCiPL/Passive-investing-rises-as-largecap-funds-underperform.html)\r\n\r\nBut there is much more to Bogle’s legacy than low cost index mutual funds. He realised that there is a two tier principal-agent problems in the fund management industry: the first between the fund manager and his client (this is the problem which the index fund addresses) and the second between the fund manager and the owners/shareholders of the fund management house (the standard principal-agent problem in any business).\r\n\r\nTo address the latter issue, Bogle came up with an utterly novel construct: Vanguard would be owned by its clients! This solution actually addresses both the principal-agent problems: if the clients control the fund manager, not only does that compel the fund manager to keep his costs – including compensation costs - low, it also forces him to be responsibly build a long term franchise which is in the best interests of the shareholders who also happen to be the clients. The fund manager is therefore answerable to only one master – the client – not two (as is the case in most privately owned companies).\r\n\r\nThirdly, Bogle figured out that beyond greedy fund managers, the investor is surrounded by other agents – promoters/CEOs, auditors, investment bankers, sell-side analysts, lawyers – who collude with the promoter to gouge the investor. He called this the “double agency society” problem: <em>“The nature of this largely tacit conspiracy is not complex, and its web is wide. It includes the managers of our giant corporations – their CEOs and CFOs, directors, auditors, and lawyers – and Wall Street – investment bankers, sell-side analysts, buy-side research departments, and the managers of giant investment institutions. Their shared goal: to increase the price of a firm’s stock…to raise the value of its currency for acquisitions, to enhance the profits executives realise when they exercise their stock options…</em>\r\n<em>How to accomplish this objective? Project high long-term earnings growth, offer regular guidance to the financial community as to your short-term progress and, whether by fair means or foul, <strong>never</strong> fall short of the expectations you’ve established. Ultimately, these ambitions goals are doomed to fail for corporations as a group.” </em>(Source: ‘The Clash of Cultures: Investment vs Speculation’ (2012) by John Bogle; emphasis in bold is from Bogle)\r\n\r\nWhilst Bogle worked in the US, much of what he says is equally applicable to India. By implication, the Indian investor is not only battling against the high fees charged by Indian fund managers but also against a system loaded in favour of promoters. By design, this system loots the Indian investor with metronomic regularity through a variety of asset classes &amp; a variety of investment vehicles. At Marcellus, we are seeking to break free of this construct by: (a) using our in-house forensic accounting models rather than believing the audited financial statements published by companies; and (b) conducting in-depth research in-house rather than using sell-side research.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nNearly two-thirds of the Rs720,000 crores (around US$100 billion) equity assets managed by Indian mutual funds are invested in large &amp; midcap cap stocks (defined by the Indian regulator as the top 250 companies by market cap) [Source: https://www.sebi.gov.in/statistics/mutual-fund/mf-investment-objectives.html].\r\n\r\nAs mentioned earlier, credible studies of Indian mutual funds now show that over 80-90% of large cap mutual funds fail to beat the relevant benchmark. Such sustained underperformance actually masks even deeper challenges for these funds. In our bestselling book <em>‘Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’ (2018)</em>, we have shown:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Of the 30-40 cap leading mutual fund schemes in India which managed to generate top quartile performance in a given three year period, around 45% of these funds deliver sub-par returns (i.e. returns in the bottom two quartiles) in the subsequent three year period (see page 85 of the book).</li>\r\n 	<li>This reversion to mean implies that over the past decade, there are <strong><u>only 3</u></strong> leading mutual mutual funds in India which have managed to consistently stay in the top quartile. The remaining 97 have either been outside the top quartile for the entire decade or have sporadically entered the top quartile suggesting that luck, as much as skill, is responsible for their performance.</li>\r\n 	<li>The two preceding bullets are flattered by ‘survivorship bias’ because the mutual fund industry’s trade body, AMFI, reports all fund performance data after deleting the results of the funds which have been shut down. Since nearly 20% of Indian large cap mutual fund schemes have been wound up over the past five years, excluding these dead schemes obviously flatters the industry’s performance (on the reasonable presumption that the funds which have been shut down were the worst performing funds). [Source: <a href=\"https://www.moneylife.in/article/nearly-20-percentage-of-equity-mutual-funds-merged-or-discontinued-in-past-five-years/42003.html rel=\">https://www.moneylife.in/article/nearly-20-percentage-of-equity-mutual-funds-merged-or-discontinued-in-past-five-years/42003.html</a>]</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn light of the above, it is not surprising that Indian equity investors are migrating away from large cap funds either towards the alternative asset management industry. Even though the alternatives industry India is not exactly populated by saints, assets under management for it have rocketed from negligible levels a decade ago to Rs 250,000 crores now (US$35 billion) now [Rs 110K cr for AIF + Rs 140K cr for PMS: Source: CAIA and SEBI). As one would expect, wealthier and better informed Indian investors are at the forefront of this shift from mutual funds to alternative assets but if the American experience is anything to go by, less affluent investors are unlikely to be far behind. All they need is an Indian John Bogle. Until he/she arrives, you can see how we at Marcellus are doing in terms of return generation:\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/\">https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/</a>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.      </em>', 'Bogle: Diving Deeper to Learn More from the Legend', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bogle-diving-deeper-to-learn-more-from-the-legend', '', '', '2019-11-19 11:52:57', '2019-11-19 11:52:57', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2481', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(2506, 1, '2019-11-24 05:37:53', '2019-11-24 05:37:53', 'When children were asked what their parents want for them, 81% of American kids said that their parents value achievement and happiness over caring. Most of us who raise kids in India would probably be thinking that nearly 100% of Indian parents would want their kids to be high achievers with caring being a tertiary priority.\r\nThe authors say that from an early age kids learn to understand what their parents really care about:<em>“Kids learn what’s important to adults not by listening to what we say, but by noticing what gets our attention. And in many developed societies, parents now pay more attention to individual achievement and happiness than anything else. However much we praise kindness and caring, we’re not actually showing our kids that we value these traits…Kids, with their sensitive antennae, pick up on all this. They see their peers being celebrated primarily for the grades they get and the goals they score, not for the generosity they show. They see adults marking their achievements without paying as much attention to their character….</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, then, that kindness appears to be in decline. A rigorous analysis of annual surveys of American college students showed a substantial drop from 1979 to 2009 in empathy and in imagining the perspectives of others. Over this period, students grew less likely to feel concern for people less fortunate than themselves—and less bothered by seeing others treated unfairly.”</em>\r\nIn fact, when one of the most unfortunate aspects of modern parenting seems to be that<em>“parents subtly discourage kindness, seeing it as a source of weakness in a fiercely competitive world. In some parenting circles, for example, there’s a movement against intervening when preschoolers are selfish in their play. These parents worry that stepping in might prevent kids from learning to stick up for themselves, and say that they’re less worried about the prospect of raising an adult who doesn’t share than one who struggles to say no.”</em>\r\nIt turns out that were it not for these perverse parental signals, <em>“Children are naturally helpful—even the smallest ones appear to show an innate understanding of others’ needs. By the time they are a year and a half old, many children are eager to help set the table, sweep the floor, and clean up games; by the time they turn two and a half, many will give up their own blanket for someone else who is cold.</em>\r\n<em>But too many kids come to see kindness as a chore rather than a choice. We can change that. Experiments show that when kids are given the choice to share instead of being forced to, they’re roughly twice as likely to be generous later. And when kids are praised and recognized for helping, they are more likely to help again.”</em>\r\nSo in a hyper competitive society like India will it actually help your child if she’s more caring, more helpful than others around her?<em>“In fact, teaching children to care about others might be the best way to prepare them for a successful and fulfilling life.</em>\r\n<em>Quite a bit of evidence suggests that children who help others end up achieving more than those who don’t. Boys who are rated as helpful by their kindergarten teacher earn more money 30 years later. Middle-school students who help, cooperate, and share with their peers also excel—compared with unhelpful classmates, they get better grades and standardized-test scores. The eighth graders with the greatest academic achievement, moreover, are not the ones who got the best marks five years earlier; they’re the ones who were rated most helpful by their third-grade classmates and teachers. And middle schoolers who believe their parents value being helpful, respectful, and kind over excelling academically, attending a good college, and having a successful career perform better in school and are less likely to break rules.</em>\r\n<em>In part, that’s because concern for other people promotes supportive relationships and helps prevent depression. Students who care about others also tend to see their education as preparation for contributing to society—an outlook that inspires them to persist even when studying is dull. In adulthood, generous people earn higher incomes, better performance reviews, and more promotions than their less generous peers. This may be because the meaning they find in helping others leads to broader learning and deeper relationships, and ultimately to greater creativity and productivity.”</em>', 'Stop Trying to Raise Successful Kids', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'stop-trying-to-raise-successful-kids', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:40:21', '2019-11-25 05:40:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2506', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2507, 1, '2019-11-25 05:40:21', '2019-11-25 05:40:21', 'When children were asked what their parents want for them, 81% of American kids said that their parents value achievement and happiness over caring. Most of us who raise kids in India would probably be thinking that nearly 100% of Indian parents would want their kids to be high achievers with caring being a tertiary priority.\r\nThe authors say that from an early age kids learn to understand what their parents really care about:<em>“Kids learn what’s important to adults not by listening to what we say, but by noticing what gets our attention. And in many developed societies, parents now pay more attention to individual achievement and happiness than anything else. However much we praise kindness and caring, we’re not actually showing our kids that we value these traits…Kids, with their sensitive antennae, pick up on all this. They see their peers being celebrated primarily for the grades they get and the goals they score, not for the generosity they show. They see adults marking their achievements without paying as much attention to their character….</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, then, that kindness appears to be in decline. A rigorous analysis of annual surveys of American college students showed a substantial drop from 1979 to 2009 in empathy and in imagining the perspectives of others. Over this period, students grew less likely to feel concern for people less fortunate than themselves—and less bothered by seeing others treated unfairly.”</em>\r\nIn fact, when one of the most unfortunate aspects of modern parenting seems to be that<em>“parents subtly discourage kindness, seeing it as a source of weakness in a fiercely competitive world. In some parenting circles, for example, there’s a movement against intervening when preschoolers are selfish in their play. These parents worry that stepping in might prevent kids from learning to stick up for themselves, and say that they’re less worried about the prospect of raising an adult who doesn’t share than one who struggles to say no.”</em>\r\nIt turns out that were it not for these perverse parental signals, <em>“Children are naturally helpful—even the smallest ones appear to show an innate understanding of others’ needs. By the time they are a year and a half old, many children are eager to help set the table, sweep the floor, and clean up games; by the time they turn two and a half, many will give up their own blanket for someone else who is cold.</em>\r\n<em>But too many kids come to see kindness as a chore rather than a choice. We can change that. Experiments show that when kids are given the choice to share instead of being forced to, they’re roughly twice as likely to be generous later. And when kids are praised and recognized for helping, they are more likely to help again.”</em>\r\nSo in a hyper competitive society like India will it actually help your child if she’s more caring, more helpful than others around her?<em>“In fact, teaching children to care about others might be the best way to prepare them for a successful and fulfilling life.</em>\r\n<em>Quite a bit of evidence suggests that children who help others end up achieving more than those who don’t. Boys who are rated as helpful by their kindergarten teacher earn more money 30 years later. Middle-school students who help, cooperate, and share with their peers also excel—compared with unhelpful classmates, they get better grades and standardized-test scores. The eighth graders with the greatest academic achievement, moreover, are not the ones who got the best marks five years earlier; they’re the ones who were rated most helpful by their third-grade classmates and teachers. And middle schoolers who believe their parents value being helpful, respectful, and kind over excelling academically, attending a good college, and having a successful career perform better in school and are less likely to break rules.</em>\r\n<em>In part, that’s because concern for other people promotes supportive relationships and helps prevent depression. Students who care about others also tend to see their education as preparation for contributing to society—an outlook that inspires them to persist even when studying is dull. In adulthood, generous people earn higher incomes, better performance reviews, and more promotions than their less generous peers. This may be because the meaning they find in helping others leads to broader learning and deeper relationships, and ultimately to greater creativity and productivity.”</em>', 'Stop Trying to Raise Successful Kids', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2506-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:40:21', '2019-11-25 05:40:21', '', 2506, 'https://marcellus.in/2506-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2508, 1, '2019-11-24 05:41:27', '2019-11-24 05:41:27', 'T-Series is not just India’s largest record label, it is also the most watched YouTube channel. From its humble origins as record label flogging cheap music cassettes in the 1980s, it has risen to become a media powerhouse which also produces some of Bollywood’s most successful movies.\r\nT-Series YouTube ascendancy has no parallel: <em>“The ascent of T-Series, which has 117 million subscribers to its primary feed, caught many off guard. YouTube has been dominated by pranksters, vloggers, and beauty queens from the U.S. and Europe. No professional media producer, let alone one from Asia, had ever held the top spot. But thanks to low-cost broadband access, India is now the largest source of consumers on the open web, with more than 600 million people online. (China has more internet users, but they generally stay behind the walls of its sealed-off digital ecosystem.) And that still represents a market in its infancy—about half of India’s population doesn’t yet have internet access.</em>\r\n<em>Eager to cash in, Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon are all pouring resources into India and introducing products there before rolling them out elsewhere. In July, Netflix Inc. chose India to offer its first mobile-only subscription, an option that will be critical to unlocking emerging markets. Facebook wants to use the country as a test bed for payments via WhatsApp.”</em>\r\nBhushan Kumar, the T-Series boss, believes that he can partner with the global giants who have entered India eager for a slice of the action:<em>“Kumar argues that T-Series has no reason to fear this invasion, and not just because it sits behind a moat filled with more than 200 million YouTube subscribers….He envisions a self-reinforcing ecosystem where his YouTube channels promote his songs, his songs promote his movies and digital TV series, and when those become hits, people go back to YouTube to listen to the songs again and again, putting T-Series in an unassailable position.”</em>\r\nIf Bhushan Kumar does pull this off, he will be following in the footsteps of his father, the fruit juice seller turned media baron, Gulshan Kumar, who almost single handedly commercialised Indian film music in the late 80s:<em>“Gulshan’s distribution network put him in an excellent position to get into Bollywood soundtrack production, and in the mid-1980s he founded T-Series—the “T” an homage to the god Shiva, who’s usually depicted carrying a trident. In 1990 the label catapulted itself to the top ranks of the industry by releasing the soundtrack for the musical romance Aashiqui, which remains a bestseller. Gulshan also began aggressively snapping up the rights to Bollywood soundtracks T-Series hadn’t put together; film producers were often happy to part with them, since the company’s marketing footprint increased the odds a song would become a hit and drive box office sales.”</em>\r\nHis father’s rapid ascendancy in post-1991 India has clearly given Bhushan Kumar a nose for disruptive moves:<em>“T-Series uploaded its first YouTube video, the peppy dance number Laung Da Lashkara, in 2011, just as ringtone sales were tailing off. It featured the stars of the film Patiala House, Akshay Kumar and Anushka Sharma, cavorting in full Indian formal wear through a chandeliered ballroom, accompanied by troupes of backup dancers in turbans. Like a final transmission from an era that was about to disappear forever, it included an SMS code in the description below the frame, inviting viewers to set the song as their ringtone. The video was a hit, and it marked the beginning of an all-in bet on YouTube at a time when most record labels, whether in Santa Monica or Mumbai, still viewed it as an annoyance at best. T-Series immediately got to work uploading its entire catalog, available for free to anyone who wanted to watch.” </em>T-Series hasn’t looked back ever since.', 'Inside the Most Watched YouTube Channel in the World', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'inside-the-most-watched-youtube-channel-in-the-world', '', '', '2019-11-25 06:04:21', '2019-11-25 06:04:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2508', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2509, 1, '2019-11-25 05:43:20', '2019-11-25 05:43:20', 'T-Series is not just India’s largest record label, it is also the most watched YouTube channel. From its humble origins as record label flogging cheap music cassettes in the 1980s, it has risen to become a media powerhouse which also produces some of Bollywood’s most successful movies.\r\nT-Series YouTube ascendancy has no parallel: <em>“The ascent of T-Series, which has 117 million subscribers to its primary feed, caught many off guard. YouTube has been dominated by pranksters, vloggers, and beauty queens from the U.S. and Europe. No professional media producer, let alone one from Asia, had ever held the top spot. But thanks to low-cost broadband access, India is now the largest source of consumers on the open web, with more than 600 million people online. (China has more internet users, but they generally stay behind the walls of its sealed-off digital ecosystem.) And that still represents a market in its infancy—about half of India’s population doesn’t yet have internet access.</em>\r\n<em>Eager to cash in, Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon are all pouring resources into India and introducing products there before rolling them out elsewhere. In July, Netflix Inc. chose India to offer its first mobile-only subscription, an option that will be critical to unlocking emerging markets. Facebook wants to use the country as a test bed for payments via WhatsApp.”</em>\r\nBhushan Kumar, the T-Series boss, believes that he can partner with the global giants who have entered India eager for a slice of the action:<em>“Kumar argues that T-Series has no reason to fear this invasion, and not just because it sits behind a moat filled with more than 200 million YouTube subscribers….He envisions a self-reinforcing ecosystem where his YouTube channels promote his songs, his songs promote his movies and digital TV series, and when those become hits, people go back to YouTube to listen to the songs again and again, putting T-Series in an unassailable position.”</em>\r\nIf Bhushan Kumar does pull this off, he will be following in the footsteps of his father, the fruit juice seller turned media baron, Gulshan Kumar, who almost single handedly commercialised Indian film music in the late 80s:<em>“Gulshan’s distribution network put him in an excellent position to get into Bollywood soundtrack production, and in the mid-1980s he founded T-Series—the “T” an homage to the god Shiva, who’s usually depicted carrying a trident. In 1990 the label catapulted itself to the top ranks of the industry by releasing the soundtrack for the musical romance Aashiqui, which remains a bestseller. Gulshan also began aggressively snapping up the rights to Bollywood soundtracks T-Series hadn’t put together; film producers were often happy to part with them, since the company’s marketing footprint increased the odds a song would become a hit and drive box office sales.”</em>\r\nHis father’s rapid ascendancy in post-1991 India has clearly given Bhushan Kumar a nose for disruptive moves:<em>“T-Series uploaded its first YouTube video, the peppy dance number Laung Da Lashkara, in 2011, just as ringtone sales were tailing off. It featured the stars of the film Patiala House, Akshay Kumar and Anushka Sharma, cavorting in full Indian formal wear through a chandeliered ballroom, accompanied by troupes of backup dancers in turbans. Like a final transmission from an era that was about to disappear forever, it included an SMS code in the description below the frame, inviting viewers to set the song as their ringtone. The video was a hit, and it marked the beginning of an all-in bet on YouTube at a time when most record labels, whether in Santa Monica or Mumbai, still viewed it as an annoyance at best. T-Series immediately got to work uploading its entire catalog, available for free to anyone who wanted to watch.” </em>T-Series hasn’t looked back ever since.', 'Inside the Most Watched YouTube Channel in the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2508-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:43:20', '2019-11-25 05:43:20', '', 2508, 'https://marcellus.in/2508-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2510, 1, '2019-11-24 05:43:43', '2019-11-24 05:43:43', 'We live in the age of epic income inequality and in this era, private jets are the most sought after objects of the richest, most ambitious, most rapacious people on this planet. Interestingly, not all of these people are businessmen. Politicians – from the West and from the East – also have a thing private jets as William Cohan explains in this entertaining article.\r\nSo why do the uber rich love their private jets? Cohan puts forward a variety of reasons and illustrates them with memorable examples. Firstly, there is the small matter of exclusiveness:<em>“Setting foot on the tarmac confers an irresistible, intoxicating feeling of specialness. Avoiding security is the very definition of modern luxury, marking a bright line between private-jet owners and their lucky guests, and the merely rich. Even first-class commercial fliers, with their little glasses of Champagne, their special blankets, are schmucks, fenced off in pens, forced to take off their shoes like everyone else.”</em>\r\nSecondly, nothing announces your arrival more loudly in the world of the mega rich than the possession of a private jet:<em>“One of the first things the Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page did after becoming billionaires—thanks to the IPO of Google in 2004—was to buy a used Boeing 767–200 from Qantas, the Australian airline, for $15 million—a relative bargain—and then spend another $10 million refurbishing it with two staterooms, a shower, a dining area, a lounge, and 15 first-class seats and the ability to seat 50 passengers. That was only the beginning. Reportedly since then, Blue City Holdings, the company they created to own their jet fleet, has bought another eight jets, including two Gulfstream Vs and another Boeing, and built a private hangar, at a cost of around $82 million, in San Jose, California.”</em>\r\nThirdly, up in the air, you are a god and you can create your own perverted rulebook and get everyone to follow it:<em>“According to an age discrimination lawsuit filed (and later settled) by a male pilot against Mike Jeffries, then the CEO of Abercrombie &amp; Fitch, there were strict rules, contained in a 47-page manual, for how the young, male, scantily clad models were supposed to behave while crewing on the company’s Gulfstream G550. Male flight crew were told to present themselves clean-shaven in a uniform of Abercrombie polo shirts, boxer briefs, flip-flops, and gloves (black for when handling silverware and white for laying the table)…and wearing a “spritz” of the retailer’s own brand of aftershave.”</em>\r\nFourthly, for people who are very rich but not that powerful – and this is applicable to most billionaires – the private jet gives them a feeling that their wealth can actually buy them power:<em>““For people who are actually not that powerful except that they have a lot of money, it gives them a calling card to have power,” one private-equity mogul explains to me. “It’s all about currency. They get to leave when they want. They get to arrive when they want, and they get to make their friends be on their schedule. And then if they are really dicks, they can leave them when they are late.” [Ted] Forstmann once did that to a guy who was 20 minutes late for a flight, after he got stuck in heavy Manhattan traffic during the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting. When another passenger on the plane asked Forstmann to wait, he was told, “Fuck him. I’ve got things to do.””</em>', 'How The Private Jet Became The Singular Fetish Object Of The Modern Billionaire', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-private-jet-became-the-singular-fetish-object-of-the-modern-billionaire', '', '', '2019-11-25 06:00:19', '2019-11-25 06:00:19', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2510', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2511, 1, '2019-11-25 05:46:45', '2019-11-25 05:46:45', 'We live in the age of epic income inequality and in this era, private jets are the most sought after objects of the richest, most ambitious, most rapacious people on this planet. Interestingly, not all of these people are businessmen. Politicians – from the West and from the East – also have a thing private jets as William Cohan explains in this entertaining article.\r\nSo why do the uber rich love their private jets? Cohan puts forward a variety of reasons and illustrates them with memorable examples. Firstly, there is the small matter of exclusiveness:<em>“Setting foot on the tarmac confers an irresistible, intoxicating feeling of specialness. Avoiding security is the very definition of modern luxury, marking a bright line between private-jet owners and their lucky guests, and the merely rich. Even first-class commercial fliers, with their little glasses of Champagne, their special blankets, are schmucks, fenced off in pens, forced to take off their shoes like everyone else.”</em>\r\nSecondly, nothing announces your arrival more loudly in the world of the mega rich than the possession of a private jet:<em>“One of the first things the Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page did after becoming billionaires—thanks to the IPO of Google in 2004—was to buy a used Boeing 767–200 from Qantas, the Australian airline, for $15 million—a relative bargain—and then spend another $10 million refurbishing it with two staterooms, a shower, a dining area, a lounge, and 15 first-class seats and the ability to seat 50 passengers. That was only the beginning. Reportedly since then, Blue City Holdings, the company they created to own their jet fleet, has bought another eight jets, including two Gulfstream Vs and another Boeing, and built a private hangar, at a cost of around $82 million, in San Jose, California.”</em>\r\nThirdly, up in the air, you are a god and you can create your own perverted rulebook and get everyone to follow it:<em>“According to an age discrimination lawsuit filed (and later settled) by a male pilot against Mike Jeffries, then the CEO of Abercrombie &amp; Fitch, there were strict rules, contained in a 47-page manual, for how the young, male, scantily clad models were supposed to behave while crewing on the company’s Gulfstream G550. Male flight crew were told to present themselves clean-shaven in a uniform of Abercrombie polo shirts, boxer briefs, flip-flops, and gloves (black for when handling silverware and white for laying the table)…and wearing a “spritz” of the retailer’s own brand of aftershave.”</em>\r\nFourthly, for people who are very rich but not that powerful – and this is applicable to most billionaires – the private jet gives them a feeling that their wealth can actually buy them power:<em>““For people who are actually not that powerful except that they have a lot of money, it gives them a calling card to have power,” one private-equity mogul explains to me. “It’s all about currency. They get to leave when they want. They get to arrive when they want, and they get to make their friends be on their schedule. And then if they are really dicks, they can leave them when they are late.” [Ted] Forstmann once did that to a guy who was 20 minutes late for a flight, after he got stuck in heavy Manhattan traffic during the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting. When another passenger on the plane asked Forstmann to wait, he was told, “Fuck him. I’ve got things to do.””</em>', 'How The Private Jet Became The Singular Fetish Object Of The Modern Billionaire', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2510-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:46:45', '2019-11-25 05:46:45', '', 2510, 'https://marcellus.in/2510-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2512, 1, '2019-11-24 05:46:57', '2019-11-24 05:46:57', 'This monsoon, several Indian towns hitherto not known for flooding were submerged for days resulting in significant destruction of property and life. Amitangshu Acharya who is a Leverhulme Trust PhD scholar in human geography at the University of Edinburgh, takes a shot at explaining this increasing incidence of flooding by attributing it to the construction of dams by humans in an attempt to ironically ‘control’ the flow of rivers. Indeed, he reckons the idea of constructing dams to control the rivers is outdated and is a result of a British colonial hangover, even though western countries are moving away from dams.\r\n<em>“In 13 states of India this year, the monsoon appeared in the form of floods. The same happened in the Terai region of Nepal, Karachi and the Neelum valley area in Pakistan, several low-lying districts near the Padma river in Bangladesh, and Galle and Matara districts in Sri Lanka. In India, before the devastation of the 2005 Mumbai floods could recede from memory, floods have reappeared regularly in the cities of Mumbai and Chennai, as well as in the states of Assam and Bihar. In school geography textbooks, we were taught that rivers are productive only when caged with concrete. Our nation’s leaders and engineers decided to place greater trust in dams and embankments than “unpredictable\" rivers. This mimicked colonial engineering which attempted to civilize rivers in a subcontinent where civilizations were birthed by rivers. The language of colonial engineering—training and disciplining rivers—has continued to dominate policy.</em>\r\n<em>But insurgent South Asian rivers like the Brahmaputra, Indus, Kosi and Gandak have breached embankments repeatedly, turning engineered floodplains into hydrological dystopias. Dams kept getting built, and embankments kept getting longer and higher. A veteran scholar of rivers and an engineer by training, D.K. Mishra calculated that, in independent India, approximately 35,199km of embankments have been built around rivers as well as 4,728 large dams. Ironically, the flood-affected area of the country increased from 25 million hectares in 1952 to 49 million hectares in 2011. The solution had become a problem.</em>\r\n<em>…Himalayan rivers used to bring fine silt to north Bihar from Nepal which would be deposited across the plains, making it one of the most fertile agricultural regions in the subcontinent. Embankments cut off this efficient transport of nutrients, making the land poorer and agribusiness corporations richer. It has been calculated that each year the Kosi carries 19 cubic metres of sediment per hectare, five times higher than any other river in Bihar. Unable to deposit this sediment, the Kosi is forced to retain it. This raises its bed, making floods an inevitability, not an accident.</em>\r\n<em>….River engineering solutions are crafted by those who do not live on the floodplains. Floodwaters do not lap at the foot of their beds at midnight. The poor who live by the banks experience the river differently. They know its cycles and rhythms. They know when a river will overflow its banks simply by observing the colour of the water or the behaviour of fish. River engineering plans exclude such granular understanding of rivers acquired through lived experience. The late ecologist and conservationist Dhrubajyoti Ghosh had termed this “cognitive apartheid\"—a systematic exclusion of the knowledge of the poor by the educated elite. This is a replication of the colonial system, creating a hierarchy based on privileging the lettered over the unlettered.”</em>', 'Engineering a season of floods', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'engineering-a-season-of-floods', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:58:41', '2019-11-25 05:58:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2512', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2513, 1, '2019-11-25 05:48:32', '2019-11-25 05:48:32', 'This monsoon, several Indian towns hitherto not known for flooding were submerged for days resulting in significant destruction of property and life. Amitangshu Acharya who is a Leverhulme Trust PhD scholar in human geography at the University of Edinburgh, takes a shot at explaining this increasing incidence of flooding by attributing it to the construction of dams by humans in an attempt to ironically ‘control’ the flow of rivers. Indeed, he reckons the idea of constructing dams to control the rivers is outdated and is a result of a British colonial hangover, even though western countries are moving away from dams.\r\n<em>“In 13 states of India this year, the monsoon appeared in the form of floods. The same happened in the Terai region of Nepal, Karachi and the Neelum valley area in Pakistan, several low-lying districts near the Padma river in Bangladesh, and Galle and Matara districts in Sri Lanka. In India, before the devastation of the 2005 Mumbai floods could recede from memory, floods have reappeared regularly in the cities of Mumbai and Chennai, as well as in the states of Assam and Bihar. In school geography textbooks, we were taught that rivers are productive only when caged with concrete. Our nation’s leaders and engineers decided to place greater trust in dams and embankments than “unpredictable\" rivers. This mimicked colonial engineering which attempted to civilize rivers in a subcontinent where civilizations were birthed by rivers. The language of colonial engineering—training and disciplining rivers—has continued to dominate policy.</em>\r\n<em>But insurgent South Asian rivers like the Brahmaputra, Indus, Kosi and Gandak have breached embankments repeatedly, turning engineered floodplains into hydrological dystopias. Dams kept getting built, and embankments kept getting longer and higher. A veteran scholar of rivers and an engineer by training, D.K. Mishra calculated that, in independent India, approximately 35,199km of embankments have been built around rivers as well as 4,728 large dams. Ironically, the flood-affected area of the country increased from 25 million hectares in 1952 to 49 million hectares in 2011. The solution had become a problem.</em>\r\n<em>…Himalayan rivers used to bring fine silt to north Bihar from Nepal which would be deposited across the plains, making it one of the most fertile agricultural regions in the subcontinent. Embankments cut off this efficient transport of nutrients, making the land poorer and agribusiness corporations richer. It has been calculated that each year the Kosi carries 19 cubic metres of sediment per hectare, five times higher than any other river in Bihar. Unable to deposit this sediment, the Kosi is forced to retain it. This raises its bed, making floods an inevitability, not an accident.</em>\r\n<em>….River engineering solutions are crafted by those who do not live on the floodplains. Floodwaters do not lap at the foot of their beds at midnight. The poor who live by the banks experience the river differently. They know its cycles and rhythms. They know when a river will overflow its banks simply by observing the colour of the water or the behaviour of fish. River engineering plans exclude such granular understanding of rivers acquired through lived experience. The late ecologist and conservationist Dhrubajyoti Ghosh had termed this “cognitive apartheid\"—a systematic exclusion of the knowledge of the poor by the educated elite. This is a replication of the colonial system, creating a hierarchy based on privileging the lettered over the unlettered.”</em>', 'Engineering a season of floods', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2512-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:48:32', '2019-11-25 05:48:32', '', 2512, 'https://marcellus.in/2512-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2514, 1, '2019-11-24 05:48:54', '2019-11-24 05:48:54', 'The Economist’s this week’s edition’s Daily Chart section carries a startling chart showing the average relative environmental impact of various foods on one axis and the relative risk of dying from their consumption on the other. It shows how food that isn’t good for your health isn’t good for the environment either. The article features two recent academic papers which have studies the impact of diets on human health as well as the environment. In conclusion, it shows veganism as the way to go for humans either way.\r\n<em>“A study published this week by scientists at Oxford University and the University of Minnesota estimates both the medical and environmental burdens of having an extra serving per day of various food types. The health findings were sobering. Compared with a typical Western adult of the same age who eats an average diet, a person who guzzles an additional 50g of processed red meat (about two rashers of bacon) per day has a 41% higher chance of dying in a given year.</em>\r\n<em>…Earlier this year a group of academics, based mainly at Johns Hopkins University, simulated the environmental effects of such substitutions. They used consumption and trading data from 140 countries to estimate which foodstuffs people might switch to in order to help the planet, and came up with several hypothetical diet plans. These would allow people to achieve the recommended amounts of energy and protein in various ways.</em>\r\n<em>Giving up meat makes a big difference. For instance, compared with an American who eats 2,300 calories of a typical mix of foods, one who became vegetarian would knock 30% off their annual greenhouse-gas emissions from eating. But dairy, produced by methane-emitting cows, is still costly. Environmentally conscious omnivores can get similar reductions in their carbon footprints by cutting out milk and cheese.</em>\r\n<em>A better option still would be go to vegan for two-thirds of meals, while still occasionally indulging in animal products. Doing so would cut food-related greenhouse-gas emissions by nearly 60%. Absolute veganism, unsurprisingly, is the most environmentally friendly. Die-hard leaf-eaters can claim to have knocked off 85% off their carbon footprint.”</em>', 'How much would giving up meat help the environment?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-much-would-giving-up-meat-help-the-environment', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:56:59', '2019-11-25 05:56:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2514', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2515, 1, '2019-11-25 05:50:12', '2019-11-25 05:50:12', 'The Economist’s this week’s edition’s Daily Chart section carries a startling chart showing the average relative environmental impact of various foods on one axis and the relative risk of dying from their consumption on the other. It shows how food that isn’t good for your health isn’t good for the environment either. The article features two recent academic papers which have studies the impact of diets on human health as well as the environment. In conclusion, it shows veganism as the way to go for humans either way.\r\n<em>“A study published this week by scientists at Oxford University and the University of Minnesota estimates both the medical and environmental burdens of having an extra serving per day of various food types. The health findings were sobering. Compared with a typical Western adult of the same age who eats an average diet, a person who guzzles an additional 50g of processed red meat (about two rashers of bacon) per day has a 41% higher chance of dying in a given year.</em>\r\n<em>…Earlier this year a group of academics, based mainly at Johns Hopkins University, simulated the environmental effects of such substitutions. They used consumption and trading data from 140 countries to estimate which foodstuffs people might switch to in order to help the planet, and came up with several hypothetical diet plans. These would allow people to achieve the recommended amounts of energy and protein in various ways.</em>\r\n<em>Giving up meat makes a big difference. For instance, compared with an American who eats 2,300 calories of a typical mix of foods, one who became vegetarian would knock 30% off their annual greenhouse-gas emissions from eating. But dairy, produced by methane-emitting cows, is still costly. Environmentally conscious omnivores can get similar reductions in their carbon footprints by cutting out milk and cheese.</em>\r\n<em>A better option still would be go to vegan for two-thirds of meals, while still occasionally indulging in animal products. Doing so would cut food-related greenhouse-gas emissions by nearly 60%. Absolute veganism, unsurprisingly, is the most environmentally friendly. Die-hard leaf-eaters can claim to have knocked off 85% off their carbon footprint.”</em>', 'How much would giving up meat help the environment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2514-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:50:12', '2019-11-25 05:50:12', '', 2514, 'https://marcellus.in/2514-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2516, 1, '2019-11-24 05:50:28', '2019-11-24 05:50:28', 'These days, there isn’t a household where young kids are supplied with educational gadgets or at the least a tablet to browse curated Youtube or some such other content. Whilst there is debate over the effectiveness of such methods in terms of children’s learning, Tim Harford, who writes the Undercover Economist column for the FT draws from research on the educational effect of the popular children’s series Sesame street to support such content. A recent study by two economists noted that children exposed to Sesame street were less likely to fall behind in school.\r\n<em>“A recent study by two economists, Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine, approaches the problem from a different angle. Professors Kearney and Levine noted that in the early years of Sesame Street, some geographical areas simply couldn’t receive the broadcast signals that carried the show. Two-thirds of US children could watch the show, and many did, but one-third could not. Based on this accidental experiment, Profs Kearney and Levine concluded that the children who had lived in a region where Sesame Street was available were less likely to fall behind at school. The effect was about as large as attending the US Head Start early childhood education programme — impressive, given that TV is so cheap. The benefits were particularly large for children who lived in deprived areas.It is hard to read about this study without being reminded that Sesame Street was born in a very different world — one where children received Sesame Street via UHF broadcast, rather than watching Baby Shark on YouTube, where a version produced by the South Korean media brand Pinkfong has nearly 4bn views.Like the Children’s Television Workshop 50 years ago, Pinkfong has lofty educational goals: its videos are supposed to teach English to Korean children. It has more than twice as many YouTube subscribers as Sesame Street, which struggled financially in recent years before cutting a deal with HBO. But the vast, cosmopolitan and mysterious world of toddler YouTube seems unlikely to deliver the same educational benefits to children as Sesame Street, which was continually tweaked to help children learn rather than being relentlessly optimised for the clicks. As Alexis Madrigal observed in a long report on toddler YouTube, the viral videos tend to be fast-paced and full of superfluous details. These features may attract the attention of preschoolers, but educational experts think they are unhelpful.I’m an optimist. Online video could surely be even more educational than Sesame Street, given its ability to be interactive and to gather data on an individual child’s progress. But it would have to be carefully designed and tested, in the same way that Sesame Street was. An educational revolution doesn’t happen by accident.”</em>', 'How Sesame Street set a gold standard for education', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-sesame-street-set-a-gold-standard-for-education', '', '', '2019-11-26 03:47:54', '2019-11-26 03:47:54', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2516', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2525, 1, '2019-11-26 03:47:54', '2019-11-26 03:47:54', 'These days, there isn’t a household where young kids are supplied with educational gadgets or at the least a tablet to browse curated Youtube or some such other content. Whilst there is debate over the effectiveness of such methods in terms of children’s learning, Tim Harford, who writes the Undercover Economist column for the FT draws from research on the educational effect of the popular children’s series Sesame street to support such content. A recent study by two economists noted that children exposed to Sesame street were less likely to fall behind in school.\r\n<em>“A recent study by two economists, Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine, approaches the problem from a different angle. Professors Kearney and Levine noted that in the early years of Sesame Street, some geographical areas simply couldn’t receive the broadcast signals that carried the show. Two-thirds of US children could watch the show, and many did, but one-third could not. Based on this accidental experiment, Profs Kearney and Levine concluded that the children who had lived in a region where Sesame Street was available were less likely to fall behind at school. The effect was about as large as attending the US Head Start early childhood education programme — impressive, given that TV is so cheap. The benefits were particularly large for children who lived in deprived areas.It is hard to read about this study without being reminded that Sesame Street was born in a very different world — one where children received Sesame Street via UHF broadcast, rather than watching Baby Shark on YouTube, where a version produced by the South Korean media brand Pinkfong has nearly 4bn views.Like the Children’s Television Workshop 50 years ago, Pinkfong has lofty educational goals: its videos are supposed to teach English to Korean children. It has more than twice as many YouTube subscribers as Sesame Street, which struggled financially in recent years before cutting a deal with HBO. But the vast, cosmopolitan and mysterious world of toddler YouTube seems unlikely to deliver the same educational benefits to children as Sesame Street, which was continually tweaked to help children learn rather than being relentlessly optimised for the clicks. As Alexis Madrigal observed in a long report on toddler YouTube, the viral videos tend to be fast-paced and full of superfluous details. These features may attract the attention of preschoolers, but educational experts think they are unhelpful.I’m an optimist. Online video could surely be even more educational than Sesame Street, given its ability to be interactive and to gather data on an individual child’s progress. But it would have to be carefully designed and tested, in the same way that Sesame Street was. An educational revolution doesn’t happen by accident.”</em>', 'How Sesame Street set a gold standard for education', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2516-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-26 03:47:54', '2019-11-26 03:47:54', '', 2516, 'https://marcellus.in/2516-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2517, 1, '2019-11-25 05:51:32', '2019-11-25 05:51:32', 'These days, there isn’t a household where young kids are supplied with educational gadgets or at the least a tablet to browse curated Youtube or some such other content. Whilst there is debate over the effectiveness of such methods in terms of children’s learning, Tim Harford, who writes the Undercover Economist column for the FT draws from research on the educational effect of the popular children’s series Sesame street to support such content. A recent study by two economists noted that children exposed to Sesame street were less likely to fall behind in school.\r\n<em>“A recent study by two economists, Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine, approaches the problem from a different angle. Professors Kearney and Levine noted that in the early years of Sesame Street, some geographical areas simply couldn’t receive the broadcast signals that carried the show. Two-thirds of US children could watch the show, and many did, but one-third could not. Based on this accidental experiment, Profs Kearney and Levine concluded that the children who had lived in a region where Sesame Street was available were less likely to fall behind at school. The effect was about as large as attending the US Head Start early childhood education programme — impressive, given that TV is so cheap. The benefits were particularly large for children who lived in deprived areas.It is hard to read about this study without being reminded that Sesame Street was born in a very different world — one where children received Sesame Street via UHF broadcast, rather than watching Baby Shark on YouTube, where a version produced by the South Korean media brand Pinkfong has nearly 4bn views.Like the Children’s Television Workshop 50 years ago, Pinkfong has lofty educational goals: its videos are supposed to teach English to Korean children. It has more than twice as many YouTube subscribers as Sesame Street, which struggled financially in recent years before cutting a deal with HBO. But the vast, cosmopolitan and mysterious world of toddler YouTube seems unlikely to deliver the same educational benefits to children as Sesame Street, which was continually tweaked to help children learn rather than being relentlessly optimised for the clicks. As Alexis Madrigal observed in a long report on toddler YouTube, the viral videos tend to be fast-paced and full of superfluous details. These features may attract the attention of preschoolers, but educational experts think they are unhelpful.I’m an optimist. Online video could surely be even more educational than Sesame Street, given its ability to be interactive and to gather data on an individual child’s progress. But it would have to be carefully designed and tested, in the same way that Sesame Street was. An educational revolution doesn’t happen by accident.”</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'How Sesame Street set a gold standard for education', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2516-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:51:32', '2019-11-25 05:51:32', '', 2516, 'https://marcellus.in/2516-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2518, 1, '2019-11-25 05:54:04', '2019-11-25 05:54:04', 'These days, there isn’t a household where young kids are supplied with educational gadgets or at the least a tablet to browse curated Youtube or some such other content. Whilst there is debate over the effectiveness of such methods in terms of children’s learning, Tim Harford, who writes the Undercover Economist column for the FT draws from research on the educational effect of the popular children’s series Sesame street to support such content. A recent study by two economists noted that children exposed to Sesame street were less likely to fall behind in school.\r\n<em>“A recent study by two economists, Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine, approaches the problem from a different angle. Professors Kearney and Levine noted that in the early years of Sesame Street, some geographical areas simply couldn’t receive the broadcast signals that carried the show. Two-thirds of US children could watch the show, and many did, but one-third could not. Based on this accidental experiment, Profs Kearney and Levine concluded that the children who had lived in a region where Sesame Street was available were less likely to fall behind at school. The effect was about as large as attending the US Head Start early childhood education programme — impressive, given that TV is so cheap. The benefits were particularly large for children who lived in deprived areas.It is hard to read about this study without being reminded that Sesame Street was born in a very different world — one where children received Sesame Street via UHF broadcast, rather than watching Baby Shark on YouTube, where a version produced by the South Korean media brand Pinkfong has nearly 4bn views.Like the Children’s Television Workshop 50 years ago, Pinkfong has lofty educational goals: its videos are supposed to teach English to Korean children. It has more than twice as many YouTube subscribers as Sesame Street, which struggled financially in recent years before cutting a deal with HBO. But the vast, cosmopolitan and mysterious world of toddler YouTube seems unlikely to deliver the same educational benefits to children as Sesame Street, which was continually tweaked to help children learn rather than being relentlessly optimised for the clicks. As Alexis Madrigal observed in a long report on toddler YouTube, the viral videos tend to be fast-paced and full of superfluous details. These features may attract the attention of preschoolers, but educational experts think they are unhelpful.I’m an optimist. Online video could surely be even more educational than Sesame Street, given its ability to be interactive and to gather data on an individual child’s progress. But it would have to be carefully designed and tested, in the same way that Sesame Street was. An educational revolution doesn’t happen by accident.”</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2018 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'How Sesame Street set a gold standard for education', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2516-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:54:04', '2019-11-25 05:54:04', '', 2516, 'https://marcellus.in/2516-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2519, 1, '2019-11-25 05:55:31', '2019-11-25 05:55:31', 'The Economist’s this week’s edition’s Daily Chart section carries a startling chart showing the average relative environmental impact of various foods on one axis and the relative risk of dying from their consumption on the other. It shows how food that isn’t good for your health isn’t good for the environment either. The article features two recent academic papers which have studies the impact of diets on human health as well as the environment. In conclusion, it shows veganism as the way to go for humans either way.\r\n<em>“A study published this week by scientists at Oxford University and the University of Minnesota estimates both the medical and environmental burdens of having an extra serving per day of various food types. The health findings were sobering. Compared with a typical Western adult of the same age who eats an average diet, a person who guzzles an additional 50g of processed red meat (about two rashers of bacon) per day has a 41% higher chance of dying in a given year.</em>\r\n<em>…Earlier this year a group of academics, based mainly at Johns Hopkins University, simulated the environmental effects of such substitutions. They used consumption and trading data from 140 countries to estimate which foodstuffs people might switch to in order to help the planet, and came up with several hypothetical diet plans. These would allow people to achieve the recommended amounts of energy and protein in various ways.</em>\r\n<em>Giving up meat makes a big difference. For instance, compared with an American who eats 2,300 calories of a typical mix of foods, one who became vegetarian would knock 30% off their annual greenhouse-gas emissions from eating. But dairy, produced by methane-emitting cows, is still costly. Environmentally conscious omnivores can get similar reductions in their carbon footprints by cutting out milk and cheese.</em>\r\n<em>A better option still would be go to vegan for two-thirds of meals, while still occasionally indulging in animal products. Doing so would cut food-related greenhouse-gas emissions by nearly 60%. Absolute veganism, unsurprisingly, is the most environmentally friendly. Die-hard leaf-eaters can claim to have knocked off 85% off their carbon footprint.”</em>', 'How much would giving up meat help the environment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2514-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:55:31', '2019-11-25 05:55:31', '', 2514, 'https://marcellus.in/2514-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2520, 1, '2019-11-25 05:56:59', '2019-11-25 05:56:59', 'The Economist’s this week’s edition’s Daily Chart section carries a startling chart showing the average relative environmental impact of various foods on one axis and the relative risk of dying from their consumption on the other. It shows how food that isn’t good for your health isn’t good for the environment either. The article features two recent academic papers which have studies the impact of diets on human health as well as the environment. In conclusion, it shows veganism as the way to go for humans either way.\r\n<em>“A study published this week by scientists at Oxford University and the University of Minnesota estimates both the medical and environmental burdens of having an extra serving per day of various food types. The health findings were sobering. Compared with a typical Western adult of the same age who eats an average diet, a person who guzzles an additional 50g of processed red meat (about two rashers of bacon) per day has a 41% higher chance of dying in a given year.</em>\r\n<em>…Earlier this year a group of academics, based mainly at Johns Hopkins University, simulated the environmental effects of such substitutions. They used consumption and trading data from 140 countries to estimate which foodstuffs people might switch to in order to help the planet, and came up with several hypothetical diet plans. These would allow people to achieve the recommended amounts of energy and protein in various ways.</em>\r\n<em>Giving up meat makes a big difference. For instance, compared with an American who eats 2,300 calories of a typical mix of foods, one who became vegetarian would knock 30% off their annual greenhouse-gas emissions from eating. But dairy, produced by methane-emitting cows, is still costly. Environmentally conscious omnivores can get similar reductions in their carbon footprints by cutting out milk and cheese.</em>\r\n<em>A better option still would be go to vegan for two-thirds of meals, while still occasionally indulging in animal products. Doing so would cut food-related greenhouse-gas emissions by nearly 60%. Absolute veganism, unsurprisingly, is the most environmentally friendly. Die-hard leaf-eaters can claim to have knocked off 85% off their carbon footprint.”</em>', 'How much would giving up meat help the environment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2514-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:56:59', '2019-11-25 05:56:59', '', 2514, 'https://marcellus.in/2514-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2521, 1, '2019-11-25 05:58:41', '2019-11-25 05:58:41', 'This monsoon, several Indian towns hitherto not known for flooding were submerged for days resulting in significant destruction of property and life. Amitangshu Acharya who is a Leverhulme Trust PhD scholar in human geography at the University of Edinburgh, takes a shot at explaining this increasing incidence of flooding by attributing it to the construction of dams by humans in an attempt to ironically ‘control’ the flow of rivers. Indeed, he reckons the idea of constructing dams to control the rivers is outdated and is a result of a British colonial hangover, even though western countries are moving away from dams.\r\n<em>“In 13 states of India this year, the monsoon appeared in the form of floods. The same happened in the Terai region of Nepal, Karachi and the Neelum valley area in Pakistan, several low-lying districts near the Padma river in Bangladesh, and Galle and Matara districts in Sri Lanka. In India, before the devastation of the 2005 Mumbai floods could recede from memory, floods have reappeared regularly in the cities of Mumbai and Chennai, as well as in the states of Assam and Bihar. In school geography textbooks, we were taught that rivers are productive only when caged with concrete. Our nation’s leaders and engineers decided to place greater trust in dams and embankments than “unpredictable\" rivers. This mimicked colonial engineering which attempted to civilize rivers in a subcontinent where civilizations were birthed by rivers. The language of colonial engineering—training and disciplining rivers—has continued to dominate policy.</em>\r\n<em>But insurgent South Asian rivers like the Brahmaputra, Indus, Kosi and Gandak have breached embankments repeatedly, turning engineered floodplains into hydrological dystopias. Dams kept getting built, and embankments kept getting longer and higher. A veteran scholar of rivers and an engineer by training, D.K. Mishra calculated that, in independent India, approximately 35,199km of embankments have been built around rivers as well as 4,728 large dams. Ironically, the flood-affected area of the country increased from 25 million hectares in 1952 to 49 million hectares in 2011. The solution had become a problem.</em>\r\n<em>…Himalayan rivers used to bring fine silt to north Bihar from Nepal which would be deposited across the plains, making it one of the most fertile agricultural regions in the subcontinent. Embankments cut off this efficient transport of nutrients, making the land poorer and agribusiness corporations richer. It has been calculated that each year the Kosi carries 19 cubic metres of sediment per hectare, five times higher than any other river in Bihar. Unable to deposit this sediment, the Kosi is forced to retain it. This raises its bed, making floods an inevitability, not an accident.</em>\r\n<em>….River engineering solutions are crafted by those who do not live on the floodplains. Floodwaters do not lap at the foot of their beds at midnight. The poor who live by the banks experience the river differently. They know its cycles and rhythms. They know when a river will overflow its banks simply by observing the colour of the water or the behaviour of fish. River engineering plans exclude such granular understanding of rivers acquired through lived experience. The late ecologist and conservationist Dhrubajyoti Ghosh had termed this “cognitive apartheid\"—a systematic exclusion of the knowledge of the poor by the educated elite. This is a replication of the colonial system, creating a hierarchy based on privileging the lettered over the unlettered.”</em>', 'Engineering a season of floods', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2512-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 05:58:41', '2019-11-25 05:58:41', '', 2512, 'https://marcellus.in/2512-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2522, 1, '2019-11-25 06:00:19', '2019-11-25 06:00:19', 'We live in the age of epic income inequality and in this era, private jets are the most sought after objects of the richest, most ambitious, most rapacious people on this planet. Interestingly, not all of these people are businessmen. Politicians – from the West and from the East – also have a thing private jets as William Cohan explains in this entertaining article.\r\nSo why do the uber rich love their private jets? Cohan puts forward a variety of reasons and illustrates them with memorable examples. Firstly, there is the small matter of exclusiveness:<em>“Setting foot on the tarmac confers an irresistible, intoxicating feeling of specialness. Avoiding security is the very definition of modern luxury, marking a bright line between private-jet owners and their lucky guests, and the merely rich. Even first-class commercial fliers, with their little glasses of Champagne, their special blankets, are schmucks, fenced off in pens, forced to take off their shoes like everyone else.”</em>\r\nSecondly, nothing announces your arrival more loudly in the world of the mega rich than the possession of a private jet:<em>“One of the first things the Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page did after becoming billionaires—thanks to the IPO of Google in 2004—was to buy a used Boeing 767–200 from Qantas, the Australian airline, for $15 million—a relative bargain—and then spend another $10 million refurbishing it with two staterooms, a shower, a dining area, a lounge, and 15 first-class seats and the ability to seat 50 passengers. That was only the beginning. Reportedly since then, Blue City Holdings, the company they created to own their jet fleet, has bought another eight jets, including two Gulfstream Vs and another Boeing, and built a private hangar, at a cost of around $82 million, in San Jose, California.”</em>\r\nThirdly, up in the air, you are a god and you can create your own perverted rulebook and get everyone to follow it:<em>“According to an age discrimination lawsuit filed (and later settled) by a male pilot against Mike Jeffries, then the CEO of Abercrombie &amp; Fitch, there were strict rules, contained in a 47-page manual, for how the young, male, scantily clad models were supposed to behave while crewing on the company’s Gulfstream G550. Male flight crew were told to present themselves clean-shaven in a uniform of Abercrombie polo shirts, boxer briefs, flip-flops, and gloves (black for when handling silverware and white for laying the table)…and wearing a “spritz” of the retailer’s own brand of aftershave.”</em>\r\nFourthly, for people who are very rich but not that powerful – and this is applicable to most billionaires – the private jet gives them a feeling that their wealth can actually buy them power:<em>““For people who are actually not that powerful except that they have a lot of money, it gives them a calling card to have power,” one private-equity mogul explains to me. “It’s all about currency. They get to leave when they want. They get to arrive when they want, and they get to make their friends be on their schedule. And then if they are really dicks, they can leave them when they are late.” [Ted] Forstmann once did that to a guy who was 20 minutes late for a flight, after he got stuck in heavy Manhattan traffic during the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting. When another passenger on the plane asked Forstmann to wait, he was told, “Fuck him. I’ve got things to do.””</em>', 'How The Private Jet Became The Singular Fetish Object Of The Modern Billionaire', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2510-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 06:00:19', '2019-11-25 06:00:19', '', 2510, 'https://marcellus.in/2510-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2523, 1, '2019-11-25 06:01:35', '2019-11-25 06:01:35', 'T-Series is not just India’s largest record label, it is also the most watched YouTube channel. From its humble origins as record label flogging cheap music cassettes in the 1980s, it has risen to become a media powerhouse which also produces some of Bollywood’s most successful movies.\r\nT-Series YouTube ascendancy has no parallel: <em>“The ascent of T-Series, which has 117 million subscribers to its primary feed, caught many off guard. YouTube has been dominated by pranksters, vloggers, and beauty queens from the U.S. and Europe. No professional media producer, let alone one from Asia, had ever held the top spot. But thanks to low-cost broadband access, India is now the largest source of consumers on the open web, with more than 600 million people online. (China has more internet users, but they generally stay behind the walls of its sealed-off digital ecosystem.) And that still represents a market in its infancy—about half of India’s population doesn’t yet have internet access.</em>\r\n<em>Eager to cash in, Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon are all pouring resources into India and introducing products there before rolling them out elsewhere. In July, Netflix Inc. chose India to offer its first mobile-only subscription, an option that will be critical to unlocking emerging markets. Facebook wants to use the country as a test bed for payments via WhatsApp.”</em>\r\nBhushan Kumar, the T-Series boss, believes that he can partner with the global giants who have entered India eager for a slice of the action:<em>“Kumar argues that T-Series has no reason to fear this invasion, and not just because it sits behind a moat filled with more than 200 million YouTube subscribers….He envisions a self-reinforcing ecosystem where his YouTube channels promote his songs, his songs promote his movies and digital TV series, and when those become hits, people go back to YouTube to listen to the songs again and again, putting T-Series in an unassailable position.”</em>\r\nIf Bhushan Kumar does pull this off, he will be following in the footsteps of his father, the fruit juice seller turned media baron, Gulshan Kumar, who almost single handedly commercialised Indian film music in the late 80s:<em>“Gulshan’s distribution network put him in an excellent position to get into Bollywood soundtrack production, and in the mid-1980s he founded T-Series—the “T” an homage to the god Shiva, who’s usually depicted carrying a trident. In 1990 the label catapulted itself to the top ranks of the industry by releasing the soundtrack for the musical romance Aashiqui, which remains a bestseller. Gulshan also began aggressively snapping up the rights to Bollywood soundtracks T-Series hadn’t put together; film producers were often happy to part with them, since the company’s marketing footprint increased the odds a song would become a hit and drive box office sales.”</em>\r\nHis father’s rapid ascendancy in post-1991 India has clearly given Bhushan Kumar a nose for disruptive moves:<em>“T-Series uploaded its first YouTube video, the peppy dance number Laung Da Lashkara, in 2011, just as ringtone sales were tailing off. It featured the stars of the film Patiala House, Akshay Kumar and Anushka Sharma, cavorting in full Indian formal wear through a chandeliered ballroom, accompanied by troupes of backup dancers in turbans. Like a final transmission from an era that was about to disappear forever, it included an SMS code in the description below the frame, inviting viewers to set the song as their ringtone. The video was a hit, and it marked the beginning of an all-in bet on YouTube at a time when most record labels, whether in Santa Monica or Mumbai, still viewed it as an annoyance at best. T-Series immediately got to work uploading its entire catalog, available for free to anyone who wanted to watch.” </em>T-Series hasn’t looked back ever since.', 'Inside the Most Watched YouTube Channel in the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2508-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 06:01:35', '2019-11-25 06:01:35', '', 2508, 'https://marcellus.in/2508-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2524, 1, '2019-11-25 06:04:21', '2019-11-25 06:04:21', 'T-Series is not just India’s largest record label, it is also the most watched YouTube channel. From its humble origins as record label flogging cheap music cassettes in the 1980s, it has risen to become a media powerhouse which also produces some of Bollywood’s most successful movies.\r\nT-Series YouTube ascendancy has no parallel: <em>“The ascent of T-Series, which has 117 million subscribers to its primary feed, caught many off guard. YouTube has been dominated by pranksters, vloggers, and beauty queens from the U.S. and Europe. No professional media producer, let alone one from Asia, had ever held the top spot. But thanks to low-cost broadband access, India is now the largest source of consumers on the open web, with more than 600 million people online. (China has more internet users, but they generally stay behind the walls of its sealed-off digital ecosystem.) And that still represents a market in its infancy—about half of India’s population doesn’t yet have internet access.</em>\r\n<em>Eager to cash in, Netflix, Facebook, and Amazon are all pouring resources into India and introducing products there before rolling them out elsewhere. In July, Netflix Inc. chose India to offer its first mobile-only subscription, an option that will be critical to unlocking emerging markets. Facebook wants to use the country as a test bed for payments via WhatsApp.”</em>\r\nBhushan Kumar, the T-Series boss, believes that he can partner with the global giants who have entered India eager for a slice of the action:<em>“Kumar argues that T-Series has no reason to fear this invasion, and not just because it sits behind a moat filled with more than 200 million YouTube subscribers….He envisions a self-reinforcing ecosystem where his YouTube channels promote his songs, his songs promote his movies and digital TV series, and when those become hits, people go back to YouTube to listen to the songs again and again, putting T-Series in an unassailable position.”</em>\r\nIf Bhushan Kumar does pull this off, he will be following in the footsteps of his father, the fruit juice seller turned media baron, Gulshan Kumar, who almost single handedly commercialised Indian film music in the late 80s:<em>“Gulshan’s distribution network put him in an excellent position to get into Bollywood soundtrack production, and in the mid-1980s he founded T-Series—the “T” an homage to the god Shiva, who’s usually depicted carrying a trident. In 1990 the label catapulted itself to the top ranks of the industry by releasing the soundtrack for the musical romance Aashiqui, which remains a bestseller. Gulshan also began aggressively snapping up the rights to Bollywood soundtracks T-Series hadn’t put together; film producers were often happy to part with them, since the company’s marketing footprint increased the odds a song would become a hit and drive box office sales.”</em>\r\nHis father’s rapid ascendancy in post-1991 India has clearly given Bhushan Kumar a nose for disruptive moves:<em>“T-Series uploaded its first YouTube video, the peppy dance number Laung Da Lashkara, in 2011, just as ringtone sales were tailing off. It featured the stars of the film Patiala House, Akshay Kumar and Anushka Sharma, cavorting in full Indian formal wear through a chandeliered ballroom, accompanied by troupes of backup dancers in turbans. Like a final transmission from an era that was about to disappear forever, it included an SMS code in the description below the frame, inviting viewers to set the song as their ringtone. The video was a hit, and it marked the beginning of an all-in bet on YouTube at a time when most record labels, whether in Santa Monica or Mumbai, still viewed it as an annoyance at best. T-Series immediately got to work uploading its entire catalog, available for free to anyone who wanted to watch.” </em>T-Series hasn’t looked back ever since.', 'Inside the Most Watched YouTube Channel in the World', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2508-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-11-25 06:04:21', '2019-11-25 06:04:21', '', 2508, 'https://marcellus.in/2508-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2527, 1, '2019-11-27 04:00:21', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'Dissecting new SEBI Rules, Q2 Corporate Results & Valuing Consistent Compounders', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2019-11-27 04:00:21', '2019-11-27 04:00:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?p=2527', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(2714, 1, '2020-01-12 04:30:04', '2020-01-12 04:30:04', 'Thanks to two incredibly popular books – ‘Deep Work’ and ‘Digital Minimalism’ – Cal Newport’s status as a modern guru who can help us work smarter and think deeper is already well established. Here he comes up with a superb blog to get our engine started nicely for 2020.\r\nHe says that if you really want to do the digital detox highlighted in his book ‘Digital Minimalism’, it is far more likely that you will pull it off if you actually started to do more meaningful non-digital stuff.<em> “…if you fill your life with hard but satisfying analog alternatives — activities that resonate with our primal urges to connect, to move, to reflect, to be surrounded by nature, to manipulate elements of the physical world with out hands — you’ll find the appeal of animated GIFs and ASCII snark to be greatly diminished.”</em>\r\nIn order to help you do this, Newport has created <em>“the Analog January Challenge. It’s a collection of five commitments that last one month. They’re designed to provide you a crash course introduction to the types of satisfying analog activities that will reduce the anxious attraction of your screens.”</em>\r\nSo here are the five commitments which make up the Challenge:\r\n<em>“READ: Commit to reading 3 – 4 new books during the month…The goal is to rediscover what it feels like to make engagement with the written word an important part of your daily experience.</em>\r\n<em>MOVE: Commit to going for a walk every single day of the month. Try to make it at least 15 minutes long. Leave your phone at home…</em>\r\n<em>CONNECT: Hold a real conversation with 20 different people during the monthlong challenge. These conversations can be in person or over the phone/Facetime/Skype, but text-based communication doesn’t count…</em>\r\n<em>MAKE: Participate in a skilled hobby that requires you to interact with the physical world. This could be craft-based, like knitting, drawing, wood working, or, as I’ve taken to doing with my boys, building custom circuits. This could also be athletic, like biking, bow hunting, or, as is increasingly popular these days, Brazilian Ju Jitsu. Screen-based activities don’t count…</em>\r\n<em>JOIN: Join something local that meets weekly. For many people, this might be the hardest commitment, but it’s arguably one of the most important, especially as we enter a political season where the pseudo-anonymity and limbic-triggers of the online world attempt to bring out the worse in us. There’s nothing more fundamentally human than gathering with a group of real people in real life to work on something real together...”</em>\r\nFor most office workers in Mumbai, the last two challenges feel very challenging. But Newport urges us to not lose hope. He says that if we spend less time with our phones, these challenges will become tractable.  He says that <em>“…for the duration of the challenge that you dumb down your smartphone by following the rules I outlined </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=56cdc1dde6&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D56cdc1dde6%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578974197790000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLzx2heSXMFOXO4rxOw8zob_40LQ\"><em>here</em></a><em> (summary: use your phone only for calls, texts, maps, and audio — </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39ea067f8a&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D39ea067f8a%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578974197790000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOGFDfZwlQ8Xym91z0ItQIx_fOtg\"><em>as Steve Jobs originally intended</em></a><em>).</em>\r\n<em>Furthermore, I’d suggest that when you access social media on your computer, you always log out when you’re done, and un-save your password — introducing the crucial extra friction of typing in this information every time you want to check your account.</em><em>”</em>', 'The Analog January Challenge', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-analog-january-challenge', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:32:40', '2020-01-13 04:32:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2714', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2656, 1, '2020-01-04 08:58:31', '2020-01-04 08:58:31', '<strong>An investor looking to buy and hold stocks over a long time period, needs to be able to differentiate between businesses which can deliver longevity of consistently healthy free cashflows and those that run a high degree of uncertainty in their fundamental prospects. This differentiation is essential, both, in order to avoid premature exits from investments in great quality franchises due to concerns around expensive valuations (e.g. P/E multiples higher than 30x), and to avoid being tempted into investing in inferior quality franchises just because they are trading at apparently cheap valuations (a 10x P/E multiple might actually be super-expensive). Following on from our analysis published in the 2<sup>nd</sup> July 2019 newsletter (</strong><a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/\"><strong>click here</strong></a><strong>), this newsletter quantifies the impact of longevity on valuations of a franchise compared to conventional valuation methodologies.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31<sup>st</sup> December 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2661 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ex11-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"677\" height=\"360\" /><strong>Challenges with using the conventional DCF approach for valuing companies in India</strong>\r\n\r\nLet’s start with a simple analogy. The table below provides a comparison of annual premium payable for a term-life insurance cover of 40 years duration based on the age of the insured at the start of the period (all other details of the cover being the same).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2663 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ex22-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"575\" height=\"207\" />\r\n\r\nThe reasons behind the differential in premiums shown in the table above are obvious – Individual A (aged 20 years today) runs a lower risk of mortality over the next 40 years (i.e. before he turns 60 years old), compared to Individual D (aged 50 years today and hence turning 90 years old at the end of the term insurance period). This valuation approach (and hence annual insurance premium payment) is easy to estimate because of the tangible evidence available regarding the human body’s longevity and hence mortality risk, based on the current age of an individual. As a result, the mortality risk of Individual D is valued with 6x annual premium payment compared to that of Individual A.\r\n\r\nHowever, when it comes to drawing parallels with a business, its longevity and the corresponding impact on valuations, the conventional approach to DCF (and hence P/E multiples) fails to adopt this differentiation. A typical three stage DCF (i.e. the conventional approach to value a business) includes the following three stages of business in future:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stage 1 – Steady business prospects</strong>: Most investors forecast steady financials (and hence cash flows) of a company over the next <strong>3-5 years,</strong> based on their current understanding of the business. It is rare to see an analyst or an investor to expect the Stage 1 of the DCF to last for either 1 year (<em>“I don’t think the world will come to an end for the said company within a year!”</em>), or for as long as 10-15 years (<em>“I don’t have a crystal ball; who knows what the world will look like after 5-7 years!”</em>).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stage 2 – Fade from steady growth to terminal growth</strong>: Given the uncertainties that a business faces over the longer term, analysts or investors fade out the financials growth rates of a company over a 8-10 year period (which starts after the completion of Stage 1).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stage 3 – Terminal value</strong>: Assuming the business remains a going concern, but grows only in line with the broader macro, Stage 3 of a DCF involves forecasting cash flows to grow at a certain rate (4-5% CAGR typically) until perpetuity.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nUsing this construct, as shown in the table below, the outcome of the valuation exercise on a company results in a tight band of P/E multiples regardless of the quality of the franchise that the firm possesses. A firm which is expected to deliver 10% earnings CAGR (and cashflows CAGR) over a five-year period of Stage 1 has an implied fair value P/E multiple of 8x. And another firm which is expected to deliver 25% earnings CAGR in Stage 1 has an implied fair value P/E multiple of 24x. Since typically a quick look at most companies (basis a meeting with the management team or some other short-cut towards understanding the company’s financials) points towards earnings growth at a rate somewhere between 10% CAGR and 25% CAGR, <strong><em>the band of P/E multiples which becomes psychologically acceptable for the fair value of a firm is 8x-24x typically</em></strong>. Firms trading at valuations lower than this band appear to be cheap and those trading at valuations above this band appear to be expensive.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2664 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ex33.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"548\" height=\"235\" />\r\n\r\nHowever, the biggest challenge with the DCF approach explained above, is the rigidity of <strong><u>duration</u></strong> of Stage 1. This rigidity works both towards massive over-valuation as well as towards under-valuation, as explained below:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Over-valuation through Stage 1 of the DCF</strong>: As shown in the table below, over the past six years, Bloomberg consensus forecasts (average of forecasts published by various brokerages) have <strong><em>consistently over-estimated the 12-month forward earnings growth of Nifty50 Index by an average of 10%!</em></strong> Moreover, amongst the index constituents, there have been several firms (e.g. some banks, NBFCs, telecom companies etc) whose Stage 1 of the DCF should not have been longer than 2-3 years given the amount of business risk that they were exposed to (many of these businesses are struggling to survive now). This over-estimation is because the conventional approach towards conducting research on a firm (management meeting, reading a couple of years of annual reports, reading a few broker notes, press articles and doing some ground level channel checks) isn’t enough to forecast a bleak outlook over the short term for any business.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2665 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/ex44.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"608\" height=\"255\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Under-valuation through Stage 1 of the DCF</strong>: There have been some businesses historically which have not seen a ‘fade period’ (i.e. no end to the Stage 1 of the DCF) in their business growth prospects for several decades on end. In effect, they have delivered the ‘Stage 1 of the DCF’ for time periods lasting several decades in a highly consistent manner. Two of the best examples of such longevity have been Asian Paints and HDFC Bank – see exhibits below. The conventional valuation approach of assuming 3-5 years’ time period in Stage 1 of the DCF, <strong><em>throughout their history, would have</em></strong> <strong><em>significantly under-estimated the longevity of earnings growth and cash flows of these consistent compounders</em></strong>.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2671 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/end3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"652\" height=\"290\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Quantifying the valuation impact of changes to longevity assumptions of a business</strong>\r\n\r\n<u>We believe it is impossible to accurately forecast the future of any business.</u> Hence, it would have been impossible for an investor in Asian Paints, 40 years ago, to accurately forecast the longevity of the franchise four decades into the future (and ongoing). Similarly, it would have been highly speculative for an investor to forecast longevity of HDFC Bank in 1995 or of Bajaj Finance in 2008 given the state of their businesses at that time (HDFC Bank was a startup in 1995 and Bajaj Finance was a struggling NBFC in 2008).\r\n\r\nHowever, here are some of the tools that can be used to add at least 8-10 years or reduce 2-3 years from the conventional 5-years’ time period of Stage 1 of the firm’s DCF by using a deep-dive research approach:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Evidence of accounting fraud</strong> – which should lead to a substantial reduction in expected longevity of the franchise given the unsustainable nature of its operations. For such a business, even a 10x P/E multiple is over-valued. There was, for instance, 5 years ago abundant evidence of naughty accounting tactics used by several large listed Indian lenders. Investors who ignored this evidence paid a heavy price. To understand how we assess accounting quality, click here for a recent newsletter we published for our Little Champs PMS (<a href=\"https://marcellusindia-my.sharepoint.com/:b:/g/personal/rakshit_marcellus_in/Ec_VJoz7CrJJkexmMUWWALEBrdJsbS-thTUF_wi69KPd9A?e=ycCQ4j\">click here</a>).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Understanding of the DNA of the organization</strong> (predominantly based on historical evidence around the softer aspects of the business) – which reduces the probability of the business to self-destruct. For instance, a firm which has repeatedly demonstrated institutionalization of operations through systems and processes, empowerment of professional with a strong employee culture, succession of promoters / management team, prudent capital allocation decisions etc – deserves greater longevity assumptions than what is commonly assumed in conventional valuation methodologies. In contrast, promoters who centralize power and decision-making, severely reduce the longevity of the Stage 1 period.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deep understanding of ‘sustainability’ of the moats of an organization</strong> – which reduces the probability of external disruptions that could de-rail the longevity of a franchise. Admittedly, this is hard to do. Even with our first rate research team and even with the many decades of experience that we have of doing this and the access that we enjoy to an array of top experts in India, we have to work very hard to assess the “sustainability” of the moats around a business. You will find in “The Unusual Billionaires” (2016) many of the tools we bring to bear to assess the sustainability of moats.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThese tools (and more) might not be able to accurately forecast longevity of the business, but they can certainly be used to add a decade (or two) to an investor’s conviction on longevity assumptions of a consistent compounder. The charts below illustrate that for a firm compounding earnings at 25% annually, an addition of 10 years to Stage 1 of the DCF (all else being unchanged) increases the fair value P/E multiple of a firm from 24x to ~80x. Similarly, addition of 20 years to the Stage 1 of the DCF increases the fair value P/E multiple 24x to 250x.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2670 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/end2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"654\" height=\"382\" />\r\n\r\nThis is similar to the life-insurance term-plan analogy used in exhibit 3 above where the reduction in mortality risk of the insured led to a substantial reduction in annual premium payable. This is also similar to the analysis provided in our 2<sup>nd</sup> July 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/\"><strong>click here</strong></a>) where exhibit 3 shows how fair value P/E multiple (vertical axis) rises with an increase in ROCE and reinvestment rate (and hence earnings growth) if one factors in the longevity of 20 years for a business.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nFor an investor looking to buy and hold stocks over a long time period, a research process which doesn’t lead to substantial differentiation in longevity assumptions of a franchise will not be able to deliver healthy investment performance. This is because such an investor might make a premature exit from their investment in a great quality franchise due to concerns around expensive valuations, and the investor might also get attracted towards inferior quality franchises just because they are trading at apparently cheap valuations (when a 10x P/E multiple could also be super-expensive).\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in our 2<sup>nd</sup> July 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/\"><strong>click here</strong></a>), investment in Nestle India at 290x P/E multiple in 1994 and exit at today’s price, would have delivered shareholder returns in line with Sensex. Hence, in 1994 Nestle’s fair valuation P/E multiple was 290x! In the interim though (i.e. during 1994-2019), Nestle India’s traded P/E multiple oscillated between 65x in FY1995 (and 67x in FY2019) and 22x in FY2005 – see exhibit below. An investor who factored in the longevity of a decade or longer for Nestle India’s financials, would have found its share price undervalued at both 22x P/E multiple as well as at 65x P/E multiple.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2669 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/end1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"670\" height=\"347\" />Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio (CCP) consists of companies which we believe possess a DNA which helps sustain and evolve these firms’ competitive advantages in a manner which is likely to deliver healthy and consistent earnings and cash flows over the longer term in future. <strong><em>The weighted average FY20 P/E multiple of our portfolio is 50x currently (~4% lower than FY19 P/E for the same portfolio, using 31<sup>st</sup> March 2019 share prices)</em></strong>. Although this P/E multiple appears punchy based on the conventional DCF methodology illustrated in exhibit 7 above, we believe that this P/E multiple <strong><em><u>understates</u></em></strong> the value of expected longevity of healthy earnings (and cash flows) compounding of our portfolio companies.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>This communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'The conventional DCF method undervalues longevity of a business', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'the-conventional-dcf-method-undervalues-longevity-of-a-business', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:27', '2020-01-20 10:56:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2656', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(2530, 1, '2019-11-26 04:20:53', '2019-11-26 04:20:53', '', 'Dissecting new SEBI Rules, Q2 Corporate Results & Valuing Consistent Compounders', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dissecting-new-sebi-rules-q2-corporate-results-valuing-consistent-compounders', '', '', '2019-11-28 09:07:03', '2019-11-28 09:07:03', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=2530', 0, 'video', '', 0);
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(2598, 1, '2019-12-15 04:09:42', '2019-12-15 04:09:42', 'In the run upto the next US presidential elections, it is inevitable that the topic of taxing the rich will be front and centre of the debate with candidates such as Elizabeth Warren actually putting out a clear plan – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6314662516&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6314662516%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfqE69FJc4q6F2ESn3UOrJYCRAuA\">The Ultra-millionnaire tax</a>. The topic touches upon the role of the wealthy and big corporates in attacking inequality.\r\n<em>“…Under Ronald Reagan, the top marginal tax rates were slashed from 70 percent to 50 percent. And the top rates have fallen further over time. As the richest accumulated more wealth, as unions lost power and wages stagnated, the nation\'s wealth disparity has only grown. Today the country\'s three richest billionaires hold the same wealth as more than half the nation\'s population. As the collective wealth of the world\'s poorest 3.8 billion people fell by 11 percent in 2018, billionaire fortunes increased by 12 percent, according to Oxfam. Consider Benioff: Between 2017 and 2018, his net worth rose by $2.47 million a day, according to Business Insider. Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve data revealed that tens of millions of Americans would be unable to cover a $400 emergency expense.</em>\r\nMarc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and CEO of Salesforce.com is known for being vocal on how business needs to go beyond catering to shareholders – what he calls compassionate capitalism and has indeed demonstrated it through action. This piece in the Wired talks about how Benioff has used his position in industry and not just wealth to become an influencer of policy notably Prop C, the San Francisco City’s plan to address the growing problem of homelessness in the city.\r\n<em>“The Homelessness Gross Receipts Tax Ordinance, or Proposition C, sought to stem the city\'s spiraling homelessness problem by raising taxes by an average of half a percent on big companies—tech ones, most prominently. Doing so would bring in up to an estimated $300 million a year for various initiatives, from new beds in shelters to expanded mental health services. In the way certain votes do, Prop. C struck many as a referendum on good versus evil: not just a means of addressing San Francisco\'s housing emergency but a shot across the bow of the booming industry that was partly responsible for it, and perhaps across capitalism-as-usual.</em>\r\n<em>Enter Marc Benioff, founder and co-CEO of Salesforce, the city\'s largest employer. Declaring that “our city is in a crisis,” he threw his full support behind the measure that promised to take his company\'s money. He publicly outflanked the city\'s ostensibly liberal mayor, London Breed—who opposed it on grounds that the measure didn\'t allow for enough accountability—and pledged upward of $2 million to the Prop. C campaign. But it was on Twitter that Benioff truly went to town. “As SF\'s largest employer we recognize we are part of the solution,” he declared on October 9.</em>\r\n<em>Chief among Benioff\'s distinguishing characteristics, though, is his incessant public munificence, emphasis on incessant, emphasis on public.</em>\r\n<em>Scarcely a month goes by without another grant, another ribbon-cutting, another broadside against complacent CEOs. He and Lynne gave $250 million to build UCSF Benioff Children\'s Hospitals in San Francisco and Oakland. Between 2017 and 2019, Salesforce and the Salesforce Foundation gave away about $130 million, and the Benioffs personally donated nearly $200 million in roughly the same time period. Via large individual and company donations, a philanthropy-centric business model, and a general irrepressibility on social issues, Benioff has set his sights over the years on homelessness, oceans, public schools, local hospitals, LGBTQ+ rights, the gender pay gap, and the country\'s gun crisis. Forbes referred to him as “San Francisco\'s Giant of Generosity.” To The Silicon Review he\'s “the intrepid tech visionary who pioneered a groundbreaking philanthropic model.” Pando went so far as to call him “a people\'s billionaire.”</em>\r\n<em>Integral to Benioff\'s reputation for goodness is the insistent badness regularly displayed by his ultrarich brethren. Benioff does not offer the Russians a handy platform for derailing our democracy or erode civil discourse 280 characters at a time. He doesn\'t use his wealth to undermine public education or fund climate change denial. He does not accuse British rescue divers of pedophilia. At a moment when his plutocrat peers seem increasingly hell-bent on mucking everything up, Benioff has carved out a different brand altogether: the good billionaire”</em>\r\nThe author shows nothing so radical comes without its fair share of controversies and criticisms. Chris Colin brings out the fact Salesforce\'s own federal tax rates are abysmally low suggesting why Benioff may not be practising exactly what he preaches.\r\n\"<em>Prop. C taxes certain sectors differently than others, making it more burdensome to, say, a fintech company like Square, which would have to pay twice as much tax as Salesforce, despite bringing in a fraction of its revenue. But more important is the part Benioff never mentions: the zero dollars his company paid in federal income tax that year, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. </em><em>“This is a company that had $7.8 billion in gross profit in 2018 and didn\'t pay a dime in federal income tax,” Frank Clemente, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness, told me, before running through the assorted mechanisms used by the country\'s corporations to avoid contributions to the federal treasury: patents held by foreign subsidiaries. The so-called stock options loophole, which allows companies to lower their taxable income by paying executives in stock options. Offshore accounts. (As of 2017, Salesforce had 14 tax haven subsidiaries, in Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Singapore, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Ireland, according to a report from the advocacy group US PIRG and ITEP.)\"</em>', 'The gospel of wealth according to Marc Benioff', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-gospel-of-wealth-according-to-marc-benioff', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:48:43', '2019-12-16 04:48:43', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2598', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2577, 1, '2019-07-01 04:20:55', '2019-07-01 04:20:55', '<strong>Without a deep understanding of a business’ fundamentals, valuation becomes a difficult exercise. A weak franchise trading at 10x P/E multiple appears cheap, when its fair value P/E might actually be 5x. On the other hand, a consistent compounder trading at 50x appears expensive, when its fair value P/E could be higher than 100x. Conviction on the ability of a firm to deliver sustainable competitive advantage (represented by ROCE) as well as growth (which requires capital reinvestment) is often underappreciated in a P/E multiples based valuation methodology. In this newsletter, we quantify the relationship between longevity of healthy fundamentals and valuation for consistent compounders.</strong> <em>“Aren’t you concerned about the current P/E multiples of your portfolio companies?”</em> – This is (and perhaps will always remain) one of the most frequently asked questions about our PMS portfolio. In one of our recent blogs, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c8e5b5f622&amp;e=5648501957\">Marcellus: Value Investing – The Indian Challenge</a>, we gave an intuitive mathematical way of answering this question. In this newsletter, let’s make it a little more interesting by going one layer deeper. <strong>Relative P/E conundrum</strong>: Nestle India and Hindustan Unilever appear similar in quality with regards to their brands, MNC parentage (and hence access to a wide product portfolio), systems and processes, talent proposition etc. No wonder, they have appeared similar in fundamentals to the stock market as well – see table below. Over the last 20 years, Nestle and HUL have traded at similar trailing P/E multiples. However, the shareholder returns generated by these firms have diverged because of the divergence in their earnings growth trajectories over the same period. In particular, HUL has underperformed the Sensex over the past 20 years while Nestle India has outperformed the Sensex substantially over the same period. <strong>Hence, going by the the last 2 decades of share price performance, at the same P/E multiple HUL was over-valued 20 years ago and Nestle was undervalued.</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2578 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Capture.PNG-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"145\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Absolute P/E conundrum</strong>: Nestle India’s P/E multiple was 64x (trailing) in 1994 and it is 69x currently i.e. the stock appeared expensive 25 years ago, and it might appear expensive today as well. However, investment in Nestle in 1994 at 64x P/E multiple would have fetched 17% CAGR (1994-2019) compared to 10% CAGR delivered by Sensex over the same time period. To put it in another way, investment in Nestle India at 290x P/E multiple in 1994 and exit at today’s price, would have delivered shareholder returns in line with Sensex. <strong>Hence, in 1994 Nestle’s fair valuation P/E multiple was 290x!</strong> <strong>Why do such conundrums exist?</strong> Let us start with an analogy. Let’s say you went to purchase a new car for yourself, and you were offered two cars by the car dealers – a Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire for Rs 30 lakhs and a Bentley for Rs. 30 lakhs. Your instant reaction will be that the Swift Dzire is overvalued and that the Bentley is undervalued. Why? Because you are aware of the tangible utility and luxury offered by these cars which helps you to conclude that the fair value of Swift Dzire is substantially lower than Rs 30 lakhs and that of the Bentley is substantially higher than Rs 30 lakhs. But what if you were new to the car industry and this awareness was not there at all? What if the Swift Dzire marketing campaign talked about ride comfort in exactly the same manner as Bentley’s marketing campaign? Then you might not think that Bentley’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is deeply undervalued and that Swift Dzire’s Rs 30 lakhs price tag is substantially overvalued. Now, let’s get back to the stock market. If you go by first principles, the fair value of any firm is the present value of all <em><strong>expected</strong></em> future cash flows. However, it is difficult to predict the future because of the uncertain interplay between continuity and disruption. As a result, at the same price tag of 45x P/E multiple in 1999, both Nestle and Unilever appeared similar in quality to most investors. More importantly, at that price tag, both appeared ‘expensive’, when Nestle turned out to be significantly cheap at that price tag (and HUL turned out to be radically overvalued). Almost 99% of the companies listed on the stock exchanges, have historically exhibited a very high degree of volatility in their revenues, earnings and ROCE. Due to such weak and unpredictable fundamentals, even at 10x / 20x / 30x P/E multiples, they have proved to be over-valued. The remaining 1% are firms which have delivered consistency of healthy fundamentals over several decades in a row. Such firms have been found to be undervalued even at P/E multiples of 30x / 40x / 50x, as quantified below. <strong>Valuing longevity of healthy fundamentals</strong> The most sustainable way for a firm to grow its earnings over the longer term is to deliver ROCE (returns on capital employed) substantially higher than the cost of capital (around 15% in India) and then plough this free cash flow back into the business to grow the capital employed whilst sustaining its high ROCE (which in turn generates the free cash flow to fund the next wave of earnings growth). Let us assume that an investor builds conviction in a company’s ability to: a) sustain 40% ROCE for the next 20 years (from 2020 to 2040); and b) maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% i.e. it reinvests the balance 60% earnings back in the business and generates 40% ROCE on this incremental capital employed. Let us further assume that, in 2040, the firm will trade at the long term market average P/E multiple of 20x i.e. after 2040, the firm is not expected to deliver any better fundamentals compared to the broader market. The table below shows that entry into such a firm at 50x P/E multiple will fetch an investment return 19.2% CAGR from 2020 to 2040. [You can see a more detailed example of this in the Appendices to our book “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.]\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2579 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Capture.PNG2_.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"309\" />\r\n\r\nHere is a practical example of this phenomenon – on 31<sup>st</sup> March 1994, Asian Paints was trading at a trailing P/E multiple of 38x. A decade hence, on 31<sup>st</sup> March 2004, Asian Paints’ trailing P/E multiple had de-rated to 20x. Despite this de-rating, an investment in Asian Paints at 38x P/E multiple in 1994 would have grown at 14% CAGR till 2004 whilst the Sensex delivered only 4% CAGR over the same time period. This was because Asian Paints maintained an average ROCE of 32% with an average rate of reinvestment of earnings being 54% over these 10 years. Moreover, the period of 1994-2004 was not the only period when Asian Paints maintained a healthy ROCE and capital reinvestment rate. It has had such stellar track record of consistency for more than seven decades now! The chart below gives the fair value of 20 years longevity of all types of consistent compounders, <em>assuming that after 20 years, such a firm will trade at a P/E multiple of 20x</em>. On this chart, an investor can choose the next 20 years’ expected sustainable ROCE on the horizontal axis, and also choose the curve relating to the firm’s expected cash flow reinvestment rate. On the vertical axis, the chart shows today’s fair value at which if the firm’s shares are bought and held for the next 20 years, the investment will deliver a CAGR of 11% (i.e. market average return). Any entry point below this fair value will help the investor outperform the broader market. So, for example, if we invest in companies which reinvest 50% of their free cash flows and generate ROCEs of 40% today (this is the typical profile of stocks in our portfolio), we can deliver 11% per annum over the next 20 years even if we invest in stocks with P/E multiples today in excess of 100x !! [See the RED dashed circle on the chart]\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2580 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Capture.PNG3_.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"652\" height=\"415\" />More generally, Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS invests in stocks where we expect their fundamentals to be healthy and consistent over the long-term future. Our current portfolio’s (ex-BFSI) average ROCE for the last 10 years has been 46% and cash flow reinvestment rate over the last 10 years has been 63%. <strong>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS – Performance update</strong> We have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research process involves understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a portfolio of 10-15 companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS is shown in the chart below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2581 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Capture.PNG4_.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"337\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards,</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/resources/\">https://marcellus.in/resources/ </a>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice.<strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong> <em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>', 'Valuing longevity of healthy fundamentals', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:56:42', '2020-01-20 10:56:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2577', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(2536, 1, '2019-11-28 09:05:51', '2019-11-28 09:05:51', '', 'VIDEO', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'video', '', '', '2019-11-28 09:05:51', '2019-11-28 09:05:51', '', 2530, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/VIDEO.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2537, 1, '2019-12-01 05:57:08', '2019-12-01 05:57:08', '<b>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio consists of companies which have already delivered consistently healthy growth in their fundamentals over the past decade or longer, and where we expect the firms to deliver consistent compounding over the next decade as well. However, given the long and consistent historical track record of these companies, some investors are concerned around saturation of the growth runway for these firms given their large size vs global players in similar categories and given their already dominant market shares. Our portfolio companies overcome these potential challenges by: a) orienting their product portfolio towards a high volume of small ticket day-to-day essentials in a country which offers a long run-way for growth in middle class household consumption; and b) executing business expansion through institutionalised systems and processes, minimising product price hikes, and successfully expanding their product portfolio over time in adjacent product categories.</b>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 30<sup>th</sup> November 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2539 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/nv219.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"500\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Common apprehensions around size of consistent compounders</strong>\r\n\r\nOne of the first steps we take in our research process while trying to identify a ‘Consistent Compounder’ is a 10-years or longer historical track record of consistent and healthy fundamentals. In fact, many firms in our holding portfolio and in our coverage universe have delivered more than 20 years of consistency of healthy fundamentals. Such long and consistent track record of healthy fundamentals clearly means that by now most of our portfolio companies have become large in size (in terms of revenues, volumes, market share, etc).\r\n\r\nMoreover, given the low intended churn in our portfolio, our average holding period of a stock in the portfolio is likely to be at least 8-10 years. This means that at the very least, we don’t expect our portfolio companies to face saturation in terms of the growth run-way available to them.\r\n\r\nHowever, some of the common apprehensions that an investor might come across while investing in Consistent Compounders are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Relaxo Footwears</strong> manufactured and sold 18 crores (180 mn) pairs of footwears in FY19 in India. Compared to this number, India’s population of Rs 125 crores is only 7-times bigger – two thirds of which lives in rural areas. In comparison, <strong>Adidas</strong> (including Reebok) sold 40 crores (400 mn) pairs across the world in CY18! With Relaxo’s volumes sold being half that of Adidas globally and half of urban India’s population count, isn’t it too large already to deliver consistent growth over the next decade?</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>HDFC Bank’s</strong> loan book size is around Rs 9.5 lakh crores currently (Rs 9.5 tn). <strong>JP Morgan Chase</strong>, one of America’s largest banks is only 7 times bigger than HDFC Bank in terms of loan book size. If HDFC Bank keeps compounding at 20-25% CAGR, it will become as big as JP Morgan Chase in a decade! Given the slow pace of financial inclusion in India, and the low per capita household income compared to the US, how can HDFC Bank become as large as US’s largest retail bank after only 10 years?</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Bajaj Finance’s</strong> customer franchise has increased from 35 lakh (3,500 K) customers 10 years ago, to 4 crore (40 mn) customers today. At this pace, Bajaj Finance’s customer franchise will increase to 40 crores (400 mn) by 2029. With only 25 crore households in India today, achieving a customer base of 40 crores might mean that there is a Bajaj Finance customer in every household of the country after a decade.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Another way of looking at the growth runway</strong>\r\n\r\nLet’s consider the following points about the three companies mentioned above - Relaxo, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Relaxo:</strong> <p>India’s footwear industry is approx. Rs 40,000 crores in size. Relaxo’s revenues only Rs 2,300 crores (approx.) i.e. less than 6% of the market. 70% of the footwear industry is unorganized and the industry is likely to undergo a consistent shift from unorganized to organized footwear as GST compliance increases, aspirational consumption rises and customers look for better quality branded products. Products with a price point of Rs 2,000 or higher contribute to less than 15% of the overall market. Relaxo is the largest organized player in the economy segment of the industry because its inhouse manufacturing enables it to provide superior quality products at affordable price points (average revenue per unit sold for Relaxo stood at Rs 125 in FY19), backed by an aspirational brand recall (Sparx, Relaxo, Flite, Bahamas etc) and an efficient distribution network. Moreover, Relaxo has demonstrated its ability to: a) expand its product portfolio across sub-segments of the industry - from economy flip-flops 20 years ago to a sports shoes, sandals, women’s footwear, etc today; and b) premiumise its product portfolio over time – e.g. from white-and-blue economy flip flops (hawai chappals) to the Bahamas range of premium flip flops today. Hence, provided Relaxo continues to sustain and enhance its competitive advantages, it should not be difficult for the firm to increase its market share from 6% currently to 12% or higher over the next 10 years. Mathematically, doubling of market share over a decade contributes 7% to revenue CAGR. Alongside, if the overall footwear industry continues to grow at 10% CAGR or higher over the next decade, the runway for growth doesn’t appear to be a constraint for Relaxo</p>.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance:</strong> Credit (loans) in the Indian banking industry has grown at 13% CAGR over the past decade, broadly in line with India’s nominal GDP growth rate. HDFC Bank currently has 7% market share in this industry and Bajaj Finance has approximately 1 % market share. As highlighted in our newsletter last month (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/\">click here</a>), HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance are amongst the best placed lenders in terms of their access to low cost funds (liabilities side of the balance sheet) and their ability to grow their loan book ahead of their competitors, particularly in the aftermath of the ongoing financial crisis. Both these banks have also demonstrated their ability to use technology as an enabler to manage high quality of large volumes in small ticket size loans as the external environment evolves whilst also widening the basket of products being offered to their customers. Hence, if the broader credit industry continues to grow at a rate higher than 10% CAGR over the next decade, and within that if firms like HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance double (to 12%) and treble (to 3%) their market share respectively, the current size of these lenders won’t be an impediment to growth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>What prevents consistent compounders from saturating in their growth potential?</strong>\r\n\r\nThe context given in this newsletter so far suggests that companies which have become 100 times (or more) bigger in size over the past two decades are not necessarily approaching saturation in their growth rates. This happens because of the following factors:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Demographic dividend</strong>: A young and large population combined with economic growth supported by rising middle class household consumption provides a long runway for growth to most sectors in India. To draw a parallel – it is true that America’s largest bank JP Morgan Chase is only 7x bigger than HDFC Bank, and only thrice as big as State Bank of India in terms of its loan book size. However, it is also true that China has <u>four</u> state owned banks – ICBC, China Construction Bank Corp, Agriculture Bank of China, and Bank of China – <u>each</u> of these is twice as big as JP Morgan.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Ability to successfully expand into adjacencies over time: </strong>Page Industries started its business in India with only mens innerwear 25 years ago – a category which is ~Rs 10,000 crores in category size currently. However, today under the same brand Jockey, Page has successfully expanded into women’s innerwear, leisurewear (outerwear), and kidswear – a total category size of over Rs 40,000 crores currently. In footwear, 20-25 years ago, Relaxo Footwears used to sell predominantly rubber hawai chappals (white flip flops with blue straps) under the brand of Relaxo. Today, the firm has diversified into sports shoes (Sparx), floaters (Sparx), premium flip flops (Flite, Bahamas) etc. While Bajaj Finance was focused predominantly on consumer durable loans 8-10 years ago, today consumer durable loans contribute to no more than 10% of its overall loan book with the balance being diversified across home loans, business loans, personal loans etc. This ability to keep widening the basket of products whilst also sustaining the firm’s competitive advantages helps avoid market share related stagnation within a single product category.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Institutionalised systems and processes help play the small-ticket, high-volume game</strong>: A combination of large population in India and significant under-penetration of economy products in some of the most basic categories of day-to-day essentials creates a huge opportunity for a firm to scale up volumes in product categories of low ticket sizes. However, scaling up a pan-India business in such small ticket categories becomes difficult given the heterogeneity of consumer tastes and preferences across geographies, religions, socio-economic stratas; poor transportation and logistics infrastructure; demand centers which are remotely located from each other; and several local unorganized competitors as incumbents. One of the most common solutions to these challenges implemented by consistent compounders has been a strong focus on institutionalizing: a) IT investments in distribution and sales; b) professional empowerment of high quality talent; and c) strategic decision-making through an empowered and independent board of directors.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>A focus on product affordability via minimum price hikes: </strong>With price elasticity of demand being particularly high in low-ticket size product categories of day-to-day essentials, most Consistent Compounders minimise product price hikes while focusing on operating efficiencies to protect their profitability over time. This, combined with various other competitive advantages of these firms, ensures that there is limited room for a competitor to significantly disrupt the consistent compounder by way of ‘price wars’ by undercutting product prices. For instance, over the last couple of decades, Asian Paints has hiked product prices on a like for like basis by around 2.5% CAGR. Similarly, over the past 3-4 years, Dr. Lal Pathlabs has not hiked prices for its diagnostics tests at all.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nMost stocks in our Consistent Compounders portfolio exhibit the characteristics mentioned above while executing their business expansion. Provided, we continue to have conviction on the ability of our portfolio companies to sustain their competitive advantages, the risk of the growth runway becoming saturated appears to us to be low. Our analysis shows that the growth runway available to most of our portfolio companies - from category growth or market share gains or ability to expand the basket of product portfolio – remains long.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/\">http://marcellus.in/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Are consistent compounders too big to grow?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'are-consistent-compounders-too-big-to-grow-2', '', '', '2020-01-20 10:55:45', '2020-01-20 10:55:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2537', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(2538, 1, '2019-12-01 05:47:08', '2019-12-01 05:47:08', '', 'nov 2019', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nov-2019', '', '', '2019-12-01 05:47:08', '2019-12-01 05:47:08', '', 2537, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/nov-2019.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2540, 1, '2019-12-01 03:54:49', '2019-12-01 03:54:49', 'Plenty has been written about how the “financialisation” of Wall Street and the City of London over the last 40 years has created in these places – and hence by extension in Dalal Street – a toxic culture of greed is good, a culture that values short term share price gain over long term franchise building. This article focuses on the “financialisation” of a once venerable American giant, Boeing. It describes poignantly how engineers were put in the back seat at Boeing and the financiers were put in charge.\r\nThe article begins by describing how Boeing’s decisions to shift it corporate HQ to Chicago in 2001 – even as manufacturing stayed back in Seattle – was a colossal mistake. <em>“The isolation was deliberate. “When the headquarters is located in proximity to a principal business—as ours was in Seattle—the corporate center is inevitably drawn into day-to-day business operations,” Condit explained at the time. And that statement, more than anything, captures a cardinal truth about the aerospace giant. The present 737 Max disaster can be traced back two decades—to the moment Boeing’s leadership decided to divorce itself from the firm’s own culture.”</em>\r\nThis Wall Street-type culture of celebrating the stock price arrived at Boeing in an unexpected way: <em>“The shift had started three years earlier, with Boeing’s “reverse takeover” of McDonnell Douglas—so-called because it was McDonnell executives who perversely ended up in charge of the combined entity, and it was McDonnell’s culture that became ascendant. “McDonnell Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing’s money,” went the joke around Seattle. Condit was still in charge, yes, and told me to ignore the talk that somebody had “captured” him and was holding him “hostage” in his own office.”</em>\r\nPost the reverse merger, the new management of Boeing (i.e. the former management of McDonnell) went on a cost cutting drive (with a McDonnell executive as CFO keeping score) which was celebrated by Wall Street: “McDonnell’s stock price had risen fourfold under Stonecipher as he went on a cost-cutting tear, but many analysts feared that this came at the cost of the company’s future competitiveness. “<em>“There was a little surprise that a guy running a failing company ended up with so much power,” the former Boeing executive vice president Dick Albrecht told me at the time. Post-merger, Stonecipher brought his chain saw to Seattle. “A passion for affordability” became one of the company’s new, unloved slogans, as did “Less family, more team.” It was enough to drive the white-collar engineering union, which had historically functioned as a professional debating society, into acting more like organized labor. “We weren’t fighting against Boeing,” one union leader told me of the 40-day strike that shut down production in 2000. “We were fighting to save Boeing.””</em>\r\nThen the company decided to split up its operations into three parts &amp; three locations (all of which would be overseen by the bean counters in Chicago): <em>“The company would put its eggs in three baskets: military in St. Louis. Space in Long Beach. Passenger jets in Seattle. And it would watch that basket from Chicago. Never mind that the majority of its revenues and real estate were and are in basket three. Or that Boeing’s managers would now have the added challenge of flying all this blind—or by instrument, as it were—relying on remote readouts of the situation in Chicago instead of eyeballing it directly (as good pilots are incidentally trained to do). The goal was to change Boeing’s culture.”</em>\r\nIn a way the rest is history. After this Boeing has gradually slid into a morass of scandals of passenger safety disasters: <em>“Its rocket division was found to be in possession of 25,000 pages of stolen Lockheed Martin documents. Its CFO (ex-McDonnell) was caught violating government procurement laws and went to jail. With ethics now front and center, Condit was forced out and replaced with Stonecipher…And when Stonecipher had his own career-ending scandal (an affair with an employee), it was another GE alum—James McNerney—who came in from the outside to replace him…</em>\r\n<em>Boeing vice president, Mike Sinnett, told American Airlines pilots that the MCAS software system implicated in the 737 Max crashes didn’t have “a single-point failure,” as reported—asserting that the pilots themselves constituted a second point of backup—showing both a misunderstanding of the term and a sharp break from Boeing’s long-standing practice of having multiple backups for every flight system. Meanwhile, experienced Boeing engineers rolled their eyes as some software-development tasks (not specific to MCAS) were outsourced to recent college grads earning as little as $9 an hour, who were employed by an Indian subcontractor set up across from Seattle’s Boeing Field.”</em>', 'The Long-Forgotten Flight That Sent Boeing Off Course', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-long-forgotten-flight-that-sent-boeing-off-course', '', '', '2019-12-02 03:58:26', '2019-12-02 03:58:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2540', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2539, 1, '2019-12-01 05:54:03', '2019-12-01 05:54:03', '', 'nv219', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nv219', '', '', '2019-12-01 05:54:03', '2019-12-01 05:54:03', '', 2537, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/nv219.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2541, 1, '2019-12-02 03:58:26', '2019-12-02 03:58:26', 'Plenty has been written about how the “financialisation” of Wall Street and the City of London over the last 40 years has created in these places – and hence by extension in Dalal Street – a toxic culture of greed is good, a culture that values short term share price gain over long term franchise building. This article focuses on the “financialisation” of a once venerable American giant, Boeing. It describes poignantly how engineers were put in the back seat at Boeing and the financiers were put in charge.\r\nThe article begins by describing how Boeing’s decisions to shift it corporate HQ to Chicago in 2001 – even as manufacturing stayed back in Seattle – was a colossal mistake. <em>“The isolation was deliberate. “When the headquarters is located in proximity to a principal business—as ours was in Seattle—the corporate center is inevitably drawn into day-to-day business operations,” Condit explained at the time. And that statement, more than anything, captures a cardinal truth about the aerospace giant. The present 737 Max disaster can be traced back two decades—to the moment Boeing’s leadership decided to divorce itself from the firm’s own culture.”</em>\r\nThis Wall Street-type culture of celebrating the stock price arrived at Boeing in an unexpected way: <em>“The shift had started three years earlier, with Boeing’s “reverse takeover” of McDonnell Douglas—so-called because it was McDonnell executives who perversely ended up in charge of the combined entity, and it was McDonnell’s culture that became ascendant. “McDonnell Douglas bought Boeing with Boeing’s money,” went the joke around Seattle. Condit was still in charge, yes, and told me to ignore the talk that somebody had “captured” him and was holding him “hostage” in his own office.”</em>\r\nPost the reverse merger, the new management of Boeing (i.e. the former management of McDonnell) went on a cost cutting drive (with a McDonnell executive as CFO keeping score) which was celebrated by Wall Street: “McDonnell’s stock price had risen fourfold under Stonecipher as he went on a cost-cutting tear, but many analysts feared that this came at the cost of the company’s future competitiveness. “<em>“There was a little surprise that a guy running a failing company ended up with so much power,” the former Boeing executive vice president Dick Albrecht told me at the time. Post-merger, Stonecipher brought his chain saw to Seattle. “A passion for affordability” became one of the company’s new, unloved slogans, as did “Less family, more team.” It was enough to drive the white-collar engineering union, which had historically functioned as a professional debating society, into acting more like organized labor. “We weren’t fighting against Boeing,” one union leader told me of the 40-day strike that shut down production in 2000. “We were fighting to save Boeing.””</em>\r\nThen the company decided to split up its operations into three parts &amp; three locations (all of which would be overseen by the bean counters in Chicago): <em>“The company would put its eggs in three baskets: military in St. Louis. Space in Long Beach. Passenger jets in Seattle. And it would watch that basket from Chicago. Never mind that the majority of its revenues and real estate were and are in basket three. Or that Boeing’s managers would now have the added challenge of flying all this blind—or by instrument, as it were—relying on remote readouts of the situation in Chicago instead of eyeballing it directly (as good pilots are incidentally trained to do). The goal was to change Boeing’s culture.”</em>\r\nIn a way the rest is history. After this Boeing has gradually slid into a morass of scandals of passenger safety disasters: <em>“Its rocket division was found to be in possession of 25,000 pages of stolen Lockheed Martin documents. Its CFO (ex-McDonnell) was caught violating government procurement laws and went to jail. With ethics now front and center, Condit was forced out and replaced with Stonecipher…And when Stonecipher had his own career-ending scandal (an affair with an employee), it was another GE alum—James McNerney—who came in from the outside to replace him…</em>\r\n<em>Boeing vice president, Mike Sinnett, told American Airlines pilots that the MCAS software system implicated in the 737 Max crashes didn’t have “a single-point failure,” as reported—asserting that the pilots themselves constituted a second point of backup—showing both a misunderstanding of the term and a sharp break from Boeing’s long-standing practice of having multiple backups for every flight system. Meanwhile, experienced Boeing engineers rolled their eyes as some software-development tasks (not specific to MCAS) were outsourced to recent college grads earning as little as $9 an hour, who were employed by an Indian subcontractor set up across from Seattle’s Boeing Field.”</em>', 'The Long-Forgotten Flight That Sent Boeing Off Course', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2540-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 03:58:26', '2019-12-02 03:58:26', '', 2540, 'https://marcellus.in/2540-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2542, 1, '2019-12-01 03:58:34', '2019-12-01 03:58:34', 'Around the time that cable TV came to India in the early nineties, Michael Schumacher, the legendary Formula 1 driver was racing in a Ford and ended up winning his first two titles in that car before switching to Ferrari in which he won 5 more titles. That Ford vs Ferrari saga was reignited by the recent Christian Bale-Matt Damon starrer <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4cfbf1434f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4cfbf1434f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575344076351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG6s3o4a0tkxndZ-vn_LrlI7uuRrw\">Ford v Ferrari</a>. This article in Popular Mechanics gives a backdrop to the nuances of Ford’s build out of the GT40, something that motorheads will especially enjoy.\r\n<em>“These two guys were larger than life,” says A.J. Baime, author of Go Like Hell: Ford, Ferrari, and Their Battle for Speed and Glory at Le Mans. “Here you have arguably the most famous and powerful CEO in America, Henry Ford II, up against Enzo Ferrari—the most narcissistic man to walk the earth, but deservedly so, because he was a genius. You couldn’t write it better.”</em>\r\n<em>The clash of these titanic egos would propel Ford to design America’s greatest race car: the GT40. An unstable engineering mashup of California hot-rod ethos and high-speed NASCAR expertise, the GT40 failed to finish Le Mans in 1964 and 1965, but bold testing innovations and a never-before-seen brake strategy had them primed for 1966. Weeks before the start at Le Mans, Henry Ford II handed race program boss Leo Beebe a handwritten note: “You better win.”</em>\r\n<em>….The 1966 GT40 Mark II is more comfortable than you might expect. Designed for long-distance driving, the seat is soft and ventilated. Forward visibility is excellent. Somehow there’s plenty of interior room, considering the tiny exterior dimensions. If Le Mans circa 1966 amounted to a frantic 3,000-mile road trip, this seems like the car you’d want to do it in. But the moment you fire up the mid-mounted 427-cubic-inch V-8, you’re reminded this is a race car, capable of modern race-car speed—more than 200 mph—in 1960s analog form. No power steering. No power brakes. No electronic safety systems. A hundred miles per hour in third gear feels like you’re in a sidecar strapped to the Space Shuttle and you’re not even halfway to top speed. The guys who ran these things down the Mulsanne Straight at 210 mph, at night, on 1966-spec tires, after driving for four hours straight, must’ve been brave. Or crazy. Or a heady mixture of both.</em>\r\n<em>…“They spent a lot of money, but that was no guarantee you’d win a race,” says Preston Lerner, author of Ford GT: How Ford Silenced the Critics, Humbled Ferrari and Conquered Le Mans. “[Ford] also had to bring in the right people to win. They had to have the mechanics, the race organization people, the drivers. It could’ve been a glorious failure.”</em>\r\n<em>And in 1964 and 1965, it was. Ford’s new race car was fast, but they couldn’t figure out how to make it last for 24 hours. Gearboxes broke. Head gaskets blew. The aerodynamics were a mess, too, with cars developing so much lift they’d see wheelspin at 200 mph. After two aerodynamically unstable GT40s crashed during testing in 1964, one test driver, Roy Salvadori, quit. “I opted out of that program to save my life,” he said.</em>\r\n<em>And the brakes were a constant problem. Ford engineers calculated that when a driver hit the brakes at the end of Le Mans’ Mulsanne Straight, the front brake rotors would spike to 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit within just a few seconds, causing the rotor to fail. Trying to slow a 3,000-pound car from 210 mph, every three-and-a-half minutes, for 24 hours was a new problem in racing. “Dan Gurney told me that everything he did driving that car was about saving the brakes,” Lerner says. “At the end of the Mulsanne, he’d back off well before the brake zone and coast down so he wasn’t scrubbing 180 mph all at once.” Carroll Shelby told Baime: “We won [Le Mans] on brakes.”</em>\r\n<em>…Over the span of a few years, Ford had unveiled the Mustang, won at Le Mans, and vanquished its fuddy-​duddy image. Some of the GT40’s engineering lessons might have translated to Ford’s street cars, particularly the computer-driven durability testing, but Ford considered the Le Mans program a marketing exercise rather than a quest for innovation.</em>\r\n<em>Manufacturers are still willing to spend big on internal race programs. During Audi\'s recent reign of dominance at Le Mans, the company spent about $250 million per year on its race team, and Ferrari reportedly spends $500 million each year on its Formula One program. It\'s hard to say if those massive budgets translate to car sales, but most Audi customers probably haven’t heard of the R18 e-tron quattro, the last Audi to win Le Mans. Racing is still integral to brands like Ferrari, but mainstream companies like Audi and Toyota struggle to justify the high price tag.”</em>', 'The Feud that Created America\'s Greatest Race Car', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-feud-that-created-americas-greatest-race-car', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:34:00', '2019-12-02 04:34:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2542', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2543, 1, '2019-12-02 04:08:23', '2019-12-02 04:08:23', 'Around the time that cable TV came to India in the early nineties, Michael Schumacher, the legendary Formula 1 driver was racing in a Ford and ended up winning his first two titles in that car before switching to Ferrari in which he won 5 more titles. That Ford vs Ferrari saga was reignited by the recent Christian Bale-Matt Damon starrer <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4cfbf1434f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4cfbf1434f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575344076351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG6s3o4a0tkxndZ-vn_LrlI7uuRrw\">Ford v Ferrari</a>. This article in Popular Mechanics gives a backdrop to the nuances of Ford’s build out of the GT40, something that motorheads will especially enjoy.\r\n<em>“These two guys were larger than life,” says A.J. Baime, author of Go Like Hell: Ford, Ferrari, and Their Battle for Speed and Glory at Le Mans. “Here you have arguably the most famous and powerful CEO in America, Henry Ford II, up against Enzo Ferrari—the most narcissistic man to walk the earth, but deservedly so, because he was a genius. You couldn’t write it better.”</em>\r\n<em>The clash of these titanic egos would propel Ford to design America’s greatest race car: the GT40. An unstable engineering mashup of California hot-rod ethos and high-speed NASCAR expertise, the GT40 failed to finish Le Mans in 1964 and 1965, but bold testing innovations and a never-before-seen brake strategy had them primed for 1966. Weeks before the start at Le Mans, Henry Ford II handed race program boss Leo Beebe a handwritten note: “You better win.”</em>\r\n<em>….The 1966 GT40 Mark II is more comfortable than you might expect. Designed for long-distance driving, the seat is soft and ventilated. Forward visibility is excellent. Somehow there’s plenty of interior room, considering the tiny exterior dimensions. If Le Mans circa 1966 amounted to a frantic 3,000-mile road trip, this seems like the car you’d want to do it in. But the moment you fire up the mid-mounted 427-cubic-inch V-8, you’re reminded this is a race car, capable of modern race-car speed—more than 200 mph—in 1960s analog form. No power steering. No power brakes. No electronic safety systems. A hundred miles per hour in third gear feels like you’re in a sidecar strapped to the Space Shuttle and you’re not even halfway to top speed. The guys who ran these things down the Mulsanne Straight at 210 mph, at night, on 1966-spec tires, after driving for four hours straight, must’ve been brave. Or crazy. Or a heady mixture of both.</em>\r\n<em>…“They spent a lot of money, but that was no guarantee you’d win a race,” says Preston Lerner, author of Ford GT: How Ford Silenced the Critics, Humbled Ferrari and Conquered Le Mans. “[Ford] also had to bring in the right people to win. They had to have the mechanics, the race organization people, the drivers. It could’ve been a glorious failure.”</em>\r\n<em>And in 1964 and 1965, it was. Ford’s new race car was fast, but they couldn’t figure out how to make it last for 24 hours. Gearboxes broke. Head gaskets blew. The aerodynamics were a mess, too, with cars developing so much lift they’d see wheelspin at 200 mph. After two aerodynamically unstable GT40s crashed during testing in 1964, one test driver, Roy Salvadori, quit. “I opted out of that program to save my life,” he said.</em>\r\n<em>And the brakes were a constant problem. Ford engineers calculated that when a driver hit the brakes at the end of Le Mans’ Mulsanne Straight, the front brake rotors would spike to 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit within just a few seconds, causing the rotor to fail. Trying to slow a 3,000-pound car from 210 mph, every three-and-a-half minutes, for 24 hours was a new problem in racing. “Dan Gurney told me that everything he did driving that car was about saving the brakes,” Lerner says. “At the end of the Mulsanne, he’d back off well before the brake zone and coast down so he wasn’t scrubbing 180 mph all at once.” Carroll Shelby told Baime: “We won [Le Mans] on brakes.”</em>\r\n<em>…Over the span of a few years, Ford had unveiled the Mustang, won at Le Mans, and vanquished its fuddy-​duddy image. Some of the GT40’s engineering lessons might have translated to Ford’s street cars, particularly the computer-driven durability testing, but Ford considered the Le Mans program a marketing exercise rather than a quest for innovation.</em>\r\n<em>Manufacturers are still willing to spend big on internal race programs. During Audi\'s recent reign of dominance at Le Mans, the company spent about $250 million per year on its race team, and Ferrari reportedly spends $500 million each year on its Formula One program. It\'s hard to say if those massive budgets translate to car sales, but most Audi customers probably haven’t heard of the R18 e-tron quattro, the last Audi to win Le Mans. Racing is still integral to brands like Ferrari, but mainstream companies like Audi and Toyota struggle to justify the high price tag.”</em>', 'The Feud that Created America\'s Greatest Race Car', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2542-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:08:23', '2019-12-02 04:08:23', '', 2542, 'https://marcellus.in/2542-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2546, 1, '2019-12-01 04:09:43', '2019-12-01 04:09:43', 'India’s Q2 GDP growth was reported to be 4.5%, the lowest in six years. Much of the country’s slowdown woes can be ascribed to the liquidity squeeze caused by the financial system’s asset quality strain, which in turn has been caused by, amongst other things, the challenges in the real estate sector. Turns out, the real estate issues have resulted in another set of scams in the country – as the attractiveness of real estate as an asset class has waned in recent years, opportunities opened up for scamsters to lure investors who were in search of an alternative investment avenues. Thus were born credit cooperative societies, the hub of which appears to be Rajasthan\'s capital city of Jaipur.\r\n<em>“The PACL scam amounting to an estimated </em><em>₹</em><em>49,100 crore—considered to be one of the biggest chit-fund scams in the country affecting nearly 56 million investors—hides a larger tale about a silent transformation that has been under way in Rajasthan.</em>\r\n<em>Hints about that hidden tale tumbled out a few weeks ago when the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) released its long-delayed 2017 report documenting the nature of crimes across the country. Surprisingly, the rate of economic crimes (cases per 100,000 people) in Rajasthan’s capital city, Jaipur, topped even Delhi and Mumbai. Despite having only one-sixth of the population of Mumbai, the pink city recorded almost as many cases of economic offences as the country’s financial capital (about 4,400 or 12 cases a day). In 2017, Rajasthan also accounted for the highest share of economic crimes (cases of forgery, cheating and fraud) in the country, pushing the more populous Uttar Pradesh to second place.</em>\r\n<em>How and why did Jaipur become the country’s economic crime capital? And what does it say about the nature of economic transformation that is currently under way in India’s emerging cities?</em>\r\n<em>…Due to its proximity to several economic corridors, in Rajasthan, the credit bubble was inevitably linked to land, at least initially. PACL’s business model, for example, was to buy tracts of agricultural land using investor funds and hope for a swift appreciation in value. It worked well as long as land prices soared. And then came demonetization.</em>\r\n<em>The widely-held perception in Jaipur’s business community is that once the real estate-fuelled economic growth bubble went bust around 2016-17, people who used to invest in land began to park surplus money in credit cooperative societies, which promised roughly the same returns that land speculation used to. Here, the Rajasthanis’ innate ability to take risks came into play.</em>\r\n<em>“Rajasthanis are genetically disposed to accumulate wealth despite the desert conditions—to make money out of nothing. Personal wealth creation comes naturally to them,\" says D. K. Taknet, author of The Marwari Heritage and a business historian.</em>\r\n<em>Insiders in Rajasthan’s state police department say that around 2016-17, the rate of economic offences started to spike. Police claim that several key players in the erstwhile booming real estate sector, which was filled with a network of dubious people, spilled on to other fields—with some even launching credit cooperative societies of their own. The number of those duped over the past few years in the state is now estimated to be more than 500,000.”</em>', 'How Jaipur became an economic crimes hub', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-jaipur-became-an-economic-crimes-hub', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:11:12', '2019-12-02 04:11:12', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2546', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2547, 1, '2019-12-02 04:11:12', '2019-12-02 04:11:12', 'India’s Q2 GDP growth was reported to be 4.5%, the lowest in six years. Much of the country’s slowdown woes can be ascribed to the liquidity squeeze caused by the financial system’s asset quality strain, which in turn has been caused by, amongst other things, the challenges in the real estate sector. Turns out, the real estate issues have resulted in another set of scams in the country – as the attractiveness of real estate as an asset class has waned in recent years, opportunities opened up for scamsters to lure investors who were in search of an alternative investment avenues. Thus were born credit cooperative societies, the hub of which appears to be Rajasthan\'s capital city of Jaipur.\r\n<em>“The PACL scam amounting to an estimated </em><em>₹</em><em>49,100 crore—considered to be one of the biggest chit-fund scams in the country affecting nearly 56 million investors—hides a larger tale about a silent transformation that has been under way in Rajasthan.</em>\r\n<em>Hints about that hidden tale tumbled out a few weeks ago when the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) released its long-delayed 2017 report documenting the nature of crimes across the country. Surprisingly, the rate of economic crimes (cases per 100,000 people) in Rajasthan’s capital city, Jaipur, topped even Delhi and Mumbai. Despite having only one-sixth of the population of Mumbai, the pink city recorded almost as many cases of economic offences as the country’s financial capital (about 4,400 or 12 cases a day). In 2017, Rajasthan also accounted for the highest share of economic crimes (cases of forgery, cheating and fraud) in the country, pushing the more populous Uttar Pradesh to second place.</em>\r\n<em>How and why did Jaipur become the country’s economic crime capital? And what does it say about the nature of economic transformation that is currently under way in India’s emerging cities?</em>\r\n<em>…Due to its proximity to several economic corridors, in Rajasthan, the credit bubble was inevitably linked to land, at least initially. PACL’s business model, for example, was to buy tracts of agricultural land using investor funds and hope for a swift appreciation in value. It worked well as long as land prices soared. And then came demonetization.</em>\r\n<em>The widely-held perception in Jaipur’s business community is that once the real estate-fuelled economic growth bubble went bust around 2016-17, people who used to invest in land began to park surplus money in credit cooperative societies, which promised roughly the same returns that land speculation used to. Here, the Rajasthanis’ innate ability to take risks came into play.</em>\r\n<em>“Rajasthanis are genetically disposed to accumulate wealth despite the desert conditions—to make money out of nothing. Personal wealth creation comes naturally to them,\" says D. K. Taknet, author of The Marwari Heritage and a business historian.</em>\r\n<em>Insiders in Rajasthan’s state police department say that around 2016-17, the rate of economic offences started to spike. Police claim that several key players in the erstwhile booming real estate sector, which was filled with a network of dubious people, spilled on to other fields—with some even launching credit cooperative societies of their own. The number of those duped over the past few years in the state is now estimated to be more than 500,000.”</em>', 'How Jaipur became an economic crimes hub', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2546-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:11:12', '2019-12-02 04:11:12', '', 2546, 'https://marcellus.in/2546-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2548, 1, '2019-12-01 04:11:17', '2019-12-01 04:11:17', '<div>We are a big fan of routines and wrote a note on it six months ago: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a7e827316f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da7e827316f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575344076351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMp8XfT3i-RmV3ScvGDiabiGOecA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-the-working-habits-<wbr />of-great-minds/</a>.\r\nIn this piece Ben Carlson, from the superb Ritholz stable in NYC, writes about elite baseball players use a relatively straightforward routine which allows them to maintain strength and fitness over a long and demanding career: <em>“Dana Cavalea became the strength and conditioning coach for the New York Yankees at the tender age of 23.</em>\r\n<em>He quickly learned professional athletes who play more than 30 pre-season games, 162 regular-season games, and potentially dozens of more games in the playoffs need to have a structured routine in place in order to succeed.</em>\r\n<em>In his book, ‘Habits of a Champion’, Cavalea described a typical day in the life of a Major League Baseball player:</em>\r\n<em>For 8 months out of the year, you’re doing nothing but playing baseball.</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Workdays consist of sleeping in until 11 am or noon.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>By 3-4 pm, you’re expected to be at the “office”.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Soak for 20 minutes in the hot tub to loosen up.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Your clothes are washed and ready to go when you arrive.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Personalized stretch and workout from the strength and conditioning coach for around 40 minutes.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Grab something to eat.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Head out to the field to stretch some more.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Batting practice and throw some balls.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Pre-game meal.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Stretch yet again.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Play the game which can last anywhere from 3-4 hours.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Post-game cold tub, shower and eat (likely at a world-class restaurant).</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Go to bed well after midnight.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>Wake up the next day and do it all over again.”</em>\r\nWhen Cavalea was asked why he did not inject some variety, some change in these routines, he explained how people who vary routines to spice things up miss the point of the whole exercise: <em>“Cavalea explained how Mariano Rivera, arguably the greatest closer of all-time, had the same exact warm-up routine during every single game:</em>\r\n<em>But what many do not know about the Sandman is that two innings before heading out to the bullpen, he was on his back, listening to salsa music, getting stretched and massaged by yours truly. Every, single, game. When that 5th inning came around, if I didn’t have his green tea and a granola bar waiting, he was not a happy man. Screaming my name like a lunatic throughout the clubhouse. He was consistent, and he expected consistency. That was his method.</em>\r\n<em>The tolerance for repetition here is astounding.”</em></div>', 'Rituals and Routines', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rituals-and-routines', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:16:20', '2019-12-02 04:16:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2548', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2549, 1, '2019-12-02 04:13:39', '2019-12-02 04:13:39', '<div>We are a big fan of routines and wrote a note on it six months ago: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a7e827316f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da7e827316f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575344076351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFMp8XfT3i-RmV3ScvGDiabiGOecA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-the-working-habits-<wbr />of-great-minds/</a>.\r\nIn this piece Ben Carlson, from the superb Ritholz stable in NYC, writes about elite baseball players use a relatively straightforward routine which allows them to maintain strength and fitness over a long and demanding career: <em>“Dana Cavalea became the strength and conditioning coach for the New York Yankees at the tender age of 23.</em>\r\n<em>He quickly learned professional athletes who play more than 30 pre-season games, 162 regular-season games, and potentially dozens of more games in the playoffs need to have a structured routine in place in order to succeed.</em>\r\n<em>In his book, ‘Habits of a Champion’, Cavalea described a typical day in the life of a Major League Baseball player:</em>\r\n<em>For 8 months out of the year, you’re doing nothing but playing baseball.</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Workdays consist of sleeping in until 11 am or noon.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>By 3-4 pm, you’re expected to be at the “office”.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Soak for 20 minutes in the hot tub to loosen up.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Your clothes are washed and ready to go when you arrive.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Personalized stretch and workout from the strength and conditioning coach for around 40 minutes.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Grab something to eat.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Head out to the field to stretch some more.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Batting practice and throw some balls.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Pre-game meal.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Stretch yet again.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Play the game which can last anywhere from 3-4 hours.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Post-game cold tub, shower and eat (likely at a world-class restaurant).</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Go to bed well after midnight.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>Wake up the next day and do it all over again.”</em>\r\nWhen Cavalea was asked why he did not inject some variety, some change in these routines, he explained how people who vary routines to spice things up miss the point of the whole exercise: <em>“Cavalea explained how Mariano Rivera, arguably the greatest closer of all-time, had the same exact warm-up routine during every single game:</em>\r\n<em>But what many do not know about the Sandman is that two innings before heading out to the bullpen, he was on his back, listening to salsa music, getting stretched and massaged by yours truly. Every, single, game. When that 5th inning came around, if I didn’t have his green tea and a granola bar waiting, he was not a happy man. Screaming my name like a lunatic throughout the clubhouse. He was consistent, and he expected consistency. That was his method.</em>\r\n<em>The tolerance for repetition here is astounding.”</em></div>', 'Rituals and Routines', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2548-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:13:39', '2019-12-02 04:13:39', '', 2548, 'https://marcellus.in/2548-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2550, 1, '2019-12-01 04:16:26', '2019-12-01 04:16:26', 'Equity analysts are not exactly rocket scientists but most analysts would agree equity research is quite a fulfilling profession. It is a job where you learn something new every single day. But even the gruelling aspect of endless readings and numerous interviews with people knowledgeable about a company or an industry just to find an insight as simple as why do employees prefer to work for the company in question and then to join many such insights to assess whether the company has any distinct competitive advantage and whether the same is sustainable or not, can be quite satisfying indeed. Researchers in any field for that matter would agree. In this beautifully articulated piece, Adam Frank, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester takes us through a simple research project and the consequent ‘<em>joy of finding out’.</em>\r\n<em>“What’s the hardest thing about being a scientist? Is it the years and years of training with no certainty that it will ever lead to a steady job? Is it the endless hours of writing grant proposals, most of which will never be funded?</em>\r\n<em>While those are certainly difficulties, I believe that the hardest thing about being a scientist is not be able to tell other people the immense and profound joy that comes through finding something out.</em>\r\n<em>One of the weirdest things about research is the month-long rabbit holes you can find yourself scurrying down in search some elusive, arcane, but oh-so-important fact. When, after all those weeks in the darkness, you finally find your answer, it’s nothing less than soul-satisfying. The pleasure that comes in these moments is deep and rich—and really, really hard to explain to your loved ones, who are apt to look at you sideways when you try.But here is the thing: All that hunting, all those hours reading papers, review articles, and websites—it was all soooo</em><em> much fun. I was always learning even when I was going down a dead end. And when I found some number or mathematical expression that got me a little closer to where I needed to be, it felt like finding a nugget of buried treasure….</em>\r\n<em>…But the point here is not the number, but the exquisite joy I experienced for just a few moments when I found the number. It was truly a beautiful thing that has to be experienced to be appreciated. I felt like I’d learned something valuable, like I had gained some key insight into the nature of the world even though I knew 99 percent of the world likely didn’t care.</em>\r\n<em>So, it’s that feeling, that sense of joy that you can’t explain to anyone but another scientist. That is hardest thing about the job.</em>\r\n<em>I hope you can find your own form of this feeling in your own life, because there are many versions that come from making art or music or cooking or gardening, or whatever is your thing.</em>\r\n<em>The process of learning—particularly that eureka the moment of discovery—is about the best thing imaginable.”</em>', 'The Joy of Finding Out', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-joy-of-finding-out', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:32:10', '2019-12-02 04:32:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2550', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2551, 1, '2019-12-02 04:24:59', '2019-12-02 04:24:59', 'Equity analysts are not exactly rocket scientists but most analysts would agree equity research is quite a fulfilling profession. It is a job where you learn something new every single day. But even the gruelling aspect of endless readings and numerous interviews with people knowledgeable about a company or an industry just to find an insight as simple as why do employees prefer to work for the company in question and then to join many such insights to assess whether the company has any distinct competitive advantage and whether the same is sustainable or not, can be quite satisfying indeed. Researchers in any field for that matter would agree. In this beautifully articulated piece, Adam Frank, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester takes us through a simple research project and the consequent ‘<em>joy of finding out’.</em>\r\n<em>“What’s the hardest thing about being a scientist? Is it the years and years of training with no certainty that it will ever lead to a steady job? Is it the endless hours of writing grant proposals, most of which will never be funded?</em>\r\n<em>While those are certainly difficulties, I believe that the hardest thing about being a scientist is not be able to tell other people the immense and profound joy that comes through finding something out.</em>\r\n<em>One of the weirdest things about research is the month-long rabbit holes you can find yourself scurrying down in search some elusive, arcane, but oh-so-important fact. When, after all those weeks in the darkness, you finally find your answer, it’s nothing less than soul-satisfying. The pleasure that comes in these moments is deep and rich—and really, really hard to explain to your loved ones, who are apt to look at you sideways when you try.But here is the thing: All that hunting, all those hours reading papers, review articles, and websites—it was all soooo</em><em> much fun. I was always learning even when I was going down a dead end. And when I found some number or mathematical expression that got me a little closer to where I needed to be, it felt like finding a nugget of buried treasure….</em>\r\n<em>…But the point here is not the number, but the exquisite joy I experienced for just a few moments when I found the number. It was truly a beautiful thing that has to be experienced to be appreciated. I felt like I’d learned something valuable, like I had gained some key insight into the nature of the world even though I knew 99 percent of the world likely didn’t care.</em>\r\n<em>So, it’s that feeling, that sense of joy that you can’t explain to anyone but another scientist. That is hardest thing about the job.</em>\r\n<em>I hope you can find your own form of this feeling in your own life, because there are many versions that come from making art or music or cooking or gardening, or whatever is your thing.</em>\r\n<em>The process of learning—particularly that eureka the moment of discovery—is about the best thing imaginable.”</em>', 'The Joy of Finding Out', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2550-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:24:59', '2019-12-02 04:24:59', '', 2550, 'https://marcellus.in/2550-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2552, 1, '2019-12-01 04:25:05', '2019-12-01 04:25:05', 'It is said that intelligence is not static. Whilst we all are born with a certain IQ, it is possible that with curiosity to learn by reading, listenening and reflecting, one can improve her intelligence or indeed the lack there of could drive one the other way round. Whilst this is applicable to professionals in any field, this article by Ian Leslie brings out the fact that politicians in particular face the occupational hazard of waning intelligence given the inherent need to show their strongman side and hide any vulnerabilities including a lack of understanding of any subject lest your followers lose confidence in you.\r\n<em>“Politicians are not the only people who get dimmer over time, but they are in greater danger of it than most. Politics is a game in which the participants must purposefully blunt their own minds in order to win.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent, a person needs to stay alert to their own ignorance, and to the possibility that others have thought about things more deeply than they have – otherwise there is little point in listening, or thinking too hard. But this requires being comfortable with admitting that you don’t know, that you’re unsure, that you might be wrong. Everything about the culture of politics makes this habit dangerous and even self-destructive. To be a successful leader or activist, you must project conviction in your views at all times. We demand an absurd level of certainty from our politicians, and this makes our politicians stupid.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent requires independence of mind. It’s crucial to apply our critical faculties to propositions made by people whom we like and mostly agree with, and to be able to recognise value in ideas from people for whom we have no fellow feeling. But politics tells people this is a foolish way to behave. To clamber the heights of a political party, you have to value fealty over truth. You gain status by signalling your loyalty to the group, and lose status by questioning its received ideas. The more ingrained this habit becomes, the harder it gets to fire up the brain when it’s needed.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent requires a supple mind. An intelligent person habitually revises their assumptions in light of new evidence or better arguments. That requires a certain scepticism about your own beliefs; you can hold them firmly but you can’t enjoy them too much. Politics, at least in its most ideological form, makes a fetish out of beliefs, demanding that they be fixed, inviolable. We admire signposts, not weathercocks.</em>\r\n<em>My definition of an ideologue would be one who has a rigid mental model of the world, and allows it to substitute for actual thinking. Every new question gets processed by a simple mental algorithm that spits out an answer. An ideologue might be highly intelligent to begin with, but over time, their capacity for thought withers away, and they end up like Redwood or Burgon. This is the crucial thing to understand about stupidity: it is not just the absence of intelligence, but the dogged adherence to a flawed set of rules for thought. Stupidity is a choice – and in politics, sadly, it’s often the right choice.”</em>', 'We demand an absurd level of certainty from our politicians – and this makes them stupid', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'we-demand-an-absurd-level-of-certainty-from-our-politicians-and-this-makes-them-stupid', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:29:36', '2019-12-02 04:29:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2552', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2553, 1, '2019-12-02 04:28:57', '2019-12-02 04:28:57', '', 'We demand an absurd level of certainty from our politicians – and this makes them stupid', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2552-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:28:57', '2019-12-02 04:28:57', '', 2552, 'https://marcellus.in/2552-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2554, 1, '2019-12-02 04:29:36', '2019-12-02 04:29:36', 'It is said that intelligence is not static. Whilst we all are born with a certain IQ, it is possible that with curiosity to learn by reading, listenening and reflecting, one can improve her intelligence or indeed the lack there of could drive one the other way round. Whilst this is applicable to professionals in any field, this article by Ian Leslie brings out the fact that politicians in particular face the occupational hazard of waning intelligence given the inherent need to show their strongman side and hide any vulnerabilities including a lack of understanding of any subject lest your followers lose confidence in you.\r\n<em>“Politicians are not the only people who get dimmer over time, but they are in greater danger of it than most. Politics is a game in which the participants must purposefully blunt their own minds in order to win.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent, a person needs to stay alert to their own ignorance, and to the possibility that others have thought about things more deeply than they have – otherwise there is little point in listening, or thinking too hard. But this requires being comfortable with admitting that you don’t know, that you’re unsure, that you might be wrong. Everything about the culture of politics makes this habit dangerous and even self-destructive. To be a successful leader or activist, you must project conviction in your views at all times. We demand an absurd level of certainty from our politicians, and this makes our politicians stupid.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent requires independence of mind. It’s crucial to apply our critical faculties to propositions made by people whom we like and mostly agree with, and to be able to recognise value in ideas from people for whom we have no fellow feeling. But politics tells people this is a foolish way to behave. To clamber the heights of a political party, you have to value fealty over truth. You gain status by signalling your loyalty to the group, and lose status by questioning its received ideas. The more ingrained this habit becomes, the harder it gets to fire up the brain when it’s needed.</em>\r\n<em>To stay intelligent requires a supple mind. An intelligent person habitually revises their assumptions in light of new evidence or better arguments. That requires a certain scepticism about your own beliefs; you can hold them firmly but you can’t enjoy them too much. Politics, at least in its most ideological form, makes a fetish out of beliefs, demanding that they be fixed, inviolable. We admire signposts, not weathercocks.</em>\r\n<em>My definition of an ideologue would be one who has a rigid mental model of the world, and allows it to substitute for actual thinking. Every new question gets processed by a simple mental algorithm that spits out an answer. An ideologue might be highly intelligent to begin with, but over time, their capacity for thought withers away, and they end up like Redwood or Burgon. This is the crucial thing to understand about stupidity: it is not just the absence of intelligence, but the dogged adherence to a flawed set of rules for thought. Stupidity is a choice – and in politics, sadly, it’s often the right choice.”</em>', 'We demand an absurd level of certainty from our politicians – and this makes them stupid', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2552-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:29:36', '2019-12-02 04:29:36', '', 2552, 'https://marcellus.in/2552-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2555, 1, '2019-12-02 04:32:10', '2019-12-02 04:32:10', 'Equity analysts are not exactly rocket scientists but most analysts would agree equity research is quite a fulfilling profession. It is a job where you learn something new every single day. But even the gruelling aspect of endless readings and numerous interviews with people knowledgeable about a company or an industry just to find an insight as simple as why do employees prefer to work for the company in question and then to join many such insights to assess whether the company has any distinct competitive advantage and whether the same is sustainable or not, can be quite satisfying indeed. Researchers in any field for that matter would agree. In this beautifully articulated piece, Adam Frank, a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester takes us through a simple research project and the consequent ‘<em>joy of finding out’.</em>\r\n<em>“What’s the hardest thing about being a scientist? Is it the years and years of training with no certainty that it will ever lead to a steady job? Is it the endless hours of writing grant proposals, most of which will never be funded?</em>\r\n<em>While those are certainly difficulties, I believe that the hardest thing about being a scientist is not be able to tell other people the immense and profound joy that comes through finding something out.</em>\r\n<em>One of the weirdest things about research is the month-long rabbit holes you can find yourself scurrying down in search some elusive, arcane, but oh-so-important fact. When, after all those weeks in the darkness, you finally find your answer, it’s nothing less than soul-satisfying. The pleasure that comes in these moments is deep and rich—and really, really hard to explain to your loved ones, who are apt to look at you sideways when you try.But here is the thing: All that hunting, all those hours reading papers, review articles, and websites—it was all soooo</em><em> much fun. I was always learning even when I was going down a dead end. And when I found some number or mathematical expression that got me a little closer to where I needed to be, it felt like finding a nugget of buried treasure….</em>\r\n<em>…But the point here is not the number, but the exquisite joy I experienced for just a few moments when I found the number. It was truly a beautiful thing that has to be experienced to be appreciated. I felt like I’d learned something valuable, like I had gained some key insight into the nature of the world even though I knew 99 percent of the world likely didn’t care.</em>\r\n<em>So, it’s that feeling, that sense of joy that you can’t explain to anyone but another scientist. That is hardest thing about the job.</em>\r\n<em>I hope you can find your own form of this feeling in your own life, because there are many versions that come from making art or music or cooking or gardening, or whatever is your thing.</em>\r\n<em>The process of learning—particularly that eureka the moment of discovery—is about the best thing imaginable.”</em>', 'The Joy of Finding Out', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2550-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:32:10', '2019-12-02 04:32:10', '', 2550, 'https://marcellus.in/2550-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2556, 1, '2019-12-02 04:34:00', '2019-12-02 04:34:00', 'Around the time that cable TV came to India in the early nineties, Michael Schumacher, the legendary Formula 1 driver was racing in a Ford and ended up winning his first two titles in that car before switching to Ferrari in which he won 5 more titles. That Ford vs Ferrari saga was reignited by the recent Christian Bale-Matt Damon starrer <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4cfbf1434f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4cfbf1434f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575344076351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG6s3o4a0tkxndZ-vn_LrlI7uuRrw\">Ford v Ferrari</a>. This article in Popular Mechanics gives a backdrop to the nuances of Ford’s build out of the GT40, something that motorheads will especially enjoy.\r\n<em>“These two guys were larger than life,” says A.J. Baime, author of Go Like Hell: Ford, Ferrari, and Their Battle for Speed and Glory at Le Mans. “Here you have arguably the most famous and powerful CEO in America, Henry Ford II, up against Enzo Ferrari—the most narcissistic man to walk the earth, but deservedly so, because he was a genius. You couldn’t write it better.”</em>\r\n<em>The clash of these titanic egos would propel Ford to design America’s greatest race car: the GT40. An unstable engineering mashup of California hot-rod ethos and high-speed NASCAR expertise, the GT40 failed to finish Le Mans in 1964 and 1965, but bold testing innovations and a never-before-seen brake strategy had them primed for 1966. Weeks before the start at Le Mans, Henry Ford II handed race program boss Leo Beebe a handwritten note: “You better win.”</em>\r\n<em>….The 1966 GT40 Mark II is more comfortable than you might expect. Designed for long-distance driving, the seat is soft and ventilated. Forward visibility is excellent. Somehow there’s plenty of interior room, considering the tiny exterior dimensions. If Le Mans circa 1966 amounted to a frantic 3,000-mile road trip, this seems like the car you’d want to do it in. But the moment you fire up the mid-mounted 427-cubic-inch V-8, you’re reminded this is a race car, capable of modern race-car speed—more than 200 mph—in 1960s analog form. No power steering. No power brakes. No electronic safety systems. A hundred miles per hour in third gear feels like you’re in a sidecar strapped to the Space Shuttle and you’re not even halfway to top speed. The guys who ran these things down the Mulsanne Straight at 210 mph, at night, on 1966-spec tires, after driving for four hours straight, must’ve been brave. Or crazy. Or a heady mixture of both.</em>\r\n<em>…“They spent a lot of money, but that was no guarantee you’d win a race,” says Preston Lerner, author of Ford GT: How Ford Silenced the Critics, Humbled Ferrari and Conquered Le Mans. “[Ford] also had to bring in the right people to win. They had to have the mechanics, the race organization people, the drivers. It could’ve been a glorious failure.”</em>\r\n<em>And in 1964 and 1965, it was. Ford’s new race car was fast, but they couldn’t figure out how to make it last for 24 hours. Gearboxes broke. Head gaskets blew. The aerodynamics were a mess, too, with cars developing so much lift they’d see wheelspin at 200 mph. After two aerodynamically unstable GT40s crashed during testing in 1964, one test driver, Roy Salvadori, quit. “I opted out of that program to save my life,” he said.</em>\r\n<em>And the brakes were a constant problem. Ford engineers calculated that when a driver hit the brakes at the end of Le Mans’ Mulsanne Straight, the front brake rotors would spike to 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit within just a few seconds, causing the rotor to fail. Trying to slow a 3,000-pound car from 210 mph, every three-and-a-half minutes, for 24 hours was a new problem in racing. “Dan Gurney told me that everything he did driving that car was about saving the brakes,” Lerner says. “At the end of the Mulsanne, he’d back off well before the brake zone and coast down so he wasn’t scrubbing 180 mph all at once.” Carroll Shelby told Baime: “We won [Le Mans] on brakes.”</em>\r\n<em>…Over the span of a few years, Ford had unveiled the Mustang, won at Le Mans, and vanquished its fuddy-​duddy image. Some of the GT40’s engineering lessons might have translated to Ford’s street cars, particularly the computer-driven durability testing, but Ford considered the Le Mans program a marketing exercise rather than a quest for innovation.</em>\r\n<em>Manufacturers are still willing to spend big on internal race programs. During Audi\'s recent reign of dominance at Le Mans, the company spent about $250 million per year on its race team, and Ferrari reportedly spends $500 million each year on its Formula One program. It\'s hard to say if those massive budgets translate to car sales, but most Audi customers probably haven’t heard of the R18 e-tron quattro, the last Audi to win Le Mans. Racing is still integral to brands like Ferrari, but mainstream companies like Audi and Toyota struggle to justify the high price tag.”</em>', 'The Feud that Created America\'s Greatest Race Car', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2542-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-02 04:34:00', '2019-12-02 04:34:00', '', 2542, 'https://marcellus.in/2542-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(2672, 1, '2020-01-05 04:25:25', '2020-01-05 04:25:25', 'Given that many of us have spent our Christmas break speaking to friends and relatives who are either worried about the CAA-NRC turmoil in India or are exultant about India’s turn to the Right, we felt it is worth beginning the New Year on a positive note. We believe that this too shall pass, that the Indian Republic will emerge from its current examination stronger, not weaker. We shall overcome. Some of our reasons for optimism are echoed by this piece in the New York Times. Whilst Ms Kakutani’s piece is about USA and Trump, you can replace these proper nouns with Indian ones to understand why the Indian republic too can follow a similar path as the American one.\r\nThe first strand of optimism arises from the fact that American history reveals the rise of the Right to be episodic as opposed to being structural. Historian Richard Hofstadter calls Trump’s style of leadership “the paranoid style”.<em> “The “paranoid style,” Hofstadter observed, tends to occur in “episodic waves.” The modern right wing, he wrote, feels dispossessed: “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it.” In their view, “the old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals,” and national independence has been “destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners but major statesmen seated at the very centers of American power.”</em>\r\n<em>One well-known eruption of the “paranoid style” occurred in the 1950s with the anti-Communist hysteria led by Joseph McCarthy. It would surface again in the 1960s with the emergence on the national stage of George C. Wallace, who ran a presidential campaign fueled by racism and white working-class rage.</em>\r\n<em>In his 2018 book “The Soul of America,” the historian Jon Meacham also wrote about the cycles of hope and fear in American history, emphasizing the role that presidents play in setting a tone for the country and defining — or undermining — its founding ideals. He wrote about presidents who have worked to unify the country and appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature,” and those who have courted discord and division.</em>\r\n<em>Lincoln was followed in office by his vice president Andrew Johnson, a champion of white supremacy who pardoned more than 7,000 Confederates and opposed the 14th Amendment. Johnson was impeached in 1868…”</em>\r\nSecondly, extremist sentiments rise when the economy is under the pump and such sentiments abate when prosperity becomes more widespread. <em>“Mr. Meacham note that “extremism, racism, nativism, and isolationism, driven by fear of the unknown, tend to spike in periods of economic and social stress.” Periods, that is, like our own, when change of every sort is blowing across the globe.</em>\r\n<em>The event that turned people’s sense of dislocation and disillusionment into populist anger on both the right (the Tea Party) and the left (Occupy Wall Street and, later, Bernie Sanders’s candidacy) was the 2008 financial crisis. Trust in government had been in sharp decline in previous decades — driven by Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, and more recently by the invasion of Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction there…But the lingering fallout of the 2008 crash — growing income inequality, declining social mobility and dwindling job security — ignited rage against the elites and the status quo.</em>\r\n<em>While the banks were bailed out and the fortunate 1 percent soon made back its losses (and more), working- and middle-class voters struggled to make up lost ground.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the incompetence of paranoid, authoritarian right wing rulers sows the seeds of their own demise. <em>“As a candidate, Mr. Trump sold himself as the champion of such voters — whom he called “the forgotten men and women” — and he promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. But once in office, he enlarged the swamp, hiring some 281 lobbyists, and set about cutting taxes for corporations and the very rich.</em>\r\n<em>He also began a war on the institutions that were the very pillars of the government he now headed. In early 2017, Mr. Trump’s then adviser and strategist Steve Bannon vowed that the administration would wage a tireless battle for the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and the administration has done so ever since — nihilistically trying to undermine public faith in the efficacy, the professionalism, even the mission of the institutions that are crucial for guarding our national security, negotiating with foreign governments and ensuring the safety of our environment and workplaces. Mr. Trump also launched chilling attacks on those he reviled — from the F.B.I. to the judiciary — for having failed to put loyalty to him ahead of loyalty to the Constitution.</em>\r\n<em>This is familiar behavior among authoritarians and would-be dictators, who resent constitutional checks and balances, and who want to make themselves the sole arbiters of truth and reality. A reporter said that in 2016 when she asked Mr. Trump why he continually assailed the press, he replied: “I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.”…</em>\r\n<em>One of the terrible ironies of Mr. Trump’s presidency is that his administration’s dysfunction — little to no policymaking process on many issues, impulsive decision-making, contempt for expertise and plunging morale at beleaguered agencies — creates a toxic feedback loop that further undermines public trust in the government and lends momentum to his desire to eviscerate the “deep state.” The conflicts of interest that swirl around Mr. Trump and his cronies further increase the public’s perception of corruption and unfairness.”</em>', 'The 2010s Were the End of Normal - How social media, the Great Recession and Donald Trump combined to bring out the ‘indigenous American berserk.’', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-2010s-were-the-end-of-normal-how-social-media-the-great-recession-and-donald-trump-combined-to-bring-out-the-indigenous-american-berserk', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:35:20', '2020-01-06 04:35:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2672', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2671, 1, '2020-01-04 08:54:23', '2020-01-04 08:54:23', '', 'end3', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'end3', '', '', '2020-01-04 08:54:23', '2020-01-04 08:54:23', '', 2656, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/end3.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2675, 1, '2020-01-06 04:33:43', '2020-01-06 04:33:43', 'Given that many of us have spent our Christmas break speaking to friends and relatives who are either worried about the CAA-NRC turmoil in India or are exultant about India’s turn to the Right, we felt it is worth beginning the New Year on a positive note. We believe that this too shall pass, that the Indian Republic will emerge from its current examination stronger, not weaker. We shall overcome. Some of our reasons for optimism are echoed by this piece in the New York Times. Whilst Ms Kakutani’s piece is about USA and Trump, you can replace these proper nouns with Indian ones to understand why the Indian republic too can follow a similar path as the American one.\r\nThe first strand of optimism arises from the fact that American history reveals the rise of the Right to be episodic as opposed to being structural. Historian Richard Hofstadter calls Trump’s style of leadership “the paranoid style”.<em> “The “paranoid style,” Hofstadter observed, tends to occur in “episodic waves.” The modern right wing, he wrote, feels dispossessed: “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it.” In their view, “the old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals,” and national independence has been “destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners but major statesmen seated at the very centers of American power.”</em>\r\n<em>One well-known eruption of the “paranoid style” occurred in the 1950s with the anti-Communist hysteria led by Joseph McCarthy. It would surface again in the 1960s with the emergence on the national stage of George C. Wallace, who ran a presidential campaign fueled by racism and white working-class rage.</em>\r\n<em>In his 2018 book “The Soul of America,” the historian Jon Meacham also wrote about the cycles of hope and fear in American history, emphasizing the role that presidents play in setting a tone for the country and defining — or undermining — its founding ideals. He wrote about presidents who have worked to unify the country and appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature,” and those who have courted discord and division.</em>\r\n<em>Lincoln was followed in office by his vice president Andrew Johnson, a champion of white supremacy who pardoned more than 7,000 Confederates and opposed the 14th Amendment. Johnson was impeached in 1868…”</em>\r\nSecondly, extremist sentiments rise when the economy is under the pump and such sentiments abate when prosperity becomes more widespread. <em>“Mr. Meacham note that “extremism, racism, nativism, and isolationism, driven by fear of the unknown, tend to spike in periods of economic and social stress.” Periods, that is, like our own, when change of every sort is blowing across the globe.</em>\r\n<em>The event that turned people’s sense of dislocation and disillusionment into populist anger on both the right (the Tea Party) and the left (Occupy Wall Street and, later, Bernie Sanders’s candidacy) was the 2008 financial crisis. Trust in government had been in sharp decline in previous decades — driven by Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, and more recently by the invasion of Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction there…But the lingering fallout of the 2008 crash — growing income inequality, declining social mobility and dwindling job security — ignited rage against the elites and the status quo.</em>\r\n<em>While the banks were bailed out and the fortunate 1 percent soon made back its losses (and more), working- and middle-class voters struggled to make up lost ground.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the incompetence of paranoid, authoritarian right wing rulers sows the seeds of their own demise. <em>“As a candidate, Mr. Trump sold himself as the champion of such voters — whom he called “the forgotten men and women” — and he promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. But once in office, he enlarged the swamp, hiring some 281 lobbyists, and set about cutting taxes for corporations and the very rich.</em>\r\n<em>He also began a war on the institutions that were the very pillars of the government he now headed. In early 2017, Mr. Trump’s then adviser and strategist Steve Bannon vowed that the administration would wage a tireless battle for the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and the administration has done so ever since — nihilistically trying to undermine public faith in the efficacy, the professionalism, even the mission of the institutions that are crucial for guarding our national security, negotiating with foreign governments and ensuring the safety of our environment and workplaces. Mr. Trump also launched chilling attacks on those he reviled — from the F.B.I. to the judiciary — for having failed to put loyalty to him ahead of loyalty to the Constitution.</em>\r\n<em>This is familiar behavior among authoritarians and would-be dictators, who resent constitutional checks and balances, and who want to make themselves the sole arbiters of truth and reality. A reporter said that in 2016 when she asked Mr. Trump why he continually assailed the press, he replied: “I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.”…</em>\r\n<em>One of the terrible ironies of Mr. Trump’s presidency is that his administration’s dysfunction — little to no policymaking process on many issues, impulsive decision-making, contempt for expertise and plunging morale at beleaguered agencies — creates a toxic feedback loop that further undermines public trust in the government and lends momentum to his desire to eviscerate the “deep state.” The conflicts of interest that swirl around Mr. Trump and his cronies further increase the public’s perception of corruption and unfairness.”</em>', 'The 2010s Were the End of Normal - How social media, the Great Recession and Donald Trump combined to bring out the ‘indigenous American berserk.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2672-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:33:43', '2020-01-06 04:33:43', '', 2672, 'https://marcellus.in/2672-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2673, 1, '2020-01-06 04:30:40', '2020-01-06 04:30:40', 'Given that many of us have spent our Christmas break speaking to friends and relatives who are either worried about the CAA-NRC turmoil in India or are exultant about India’s turn to the Right, we felt it is worth beginning the New Year on a positive note. We believe that this too shall pass, that the Indian Republic will emerge from its current examination stronger, not weaker. We shall overcome. Some of our reasons for optimism are echoed by this piece in the New York Times. Whilst Ms Kakutani’s piece is about USA and Trump, you can replace these proper nouns with Indian ones to understand why the Indian republic too can follow a similar path as the American one.\r\nThe first strand of optimism arises from the fact that American history reveals the rise of the Right to be episodic as opposed to being structural. Historian Richard Hofstadter calls Trump’s style of leadership “the paranoid style”.<em> “The “paranoid style,” Hofstadter observed, tends to occur in “episodic waves.” The modern right wing, he wrote, feels dispossessed: “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it.” In their view, “the old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals,” and national independence has been “destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners but major statesmen seated at the very centers of American power.”</em>\r\n<em>One well-known eruption of the “paranoid style” occurred in the 1950s with the anti-Communist hysteria led by Joseph McCarthy. It would surface again in the 1960s with the emergence on the national stage of George C. Wallace, who ran a presidential campaign fueled by racism and white working-class rage.</em>\r\n<em>In his 2018 book “The Soul of America,” the historian Jon Meacham also wrote about the cycles of hope and fear in American history, emphasizing the role that presidents play in setting a tone for the country and defining — or undermining — its founding ideals. He wrote about presidents who have worked to unify the country and appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature,” and those who have courted discord and division.</em>\r\n<em>Lincoln was followed in office by his vice president Andrew Johnson, a champion of white supremacy who pardoned more than 7,000 Confederates and opposed the 14th Amendment. Johnson was impeached in 1868…”</em>\r\nSecondly, extremist sentiments rise when the economy is under the pump and such sentiments abate when prosperity becomes more widespread. <em>“Mr. Meacham note that “extremism, racism, nativism, and isolationism, driven by fear of the unknown, tend to spike in periods of economic and social stress.” Periods, that is, like our own, when change of every sort is blowing across the globe.</em>\r\n<em>The event that turned people’s sense of dislocation and disillusionment into populist anger on both the right (the Tea Party) and the left (Occupy Wall Street and, later, Bernie Sanders’s candidacy) was the 2008 financial crisis. Trust in government had been in sharp decline in previous decades — driven by Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, and more recently by the invasion of Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction there…But the lingering fallout of the 2008 crash — growing income inequality, declining social mobility and dwindling job security — ignited rage against the elites and the status quo.</em>\r\n<em>While the banks were bailed out and the fortunate 1 percent soon made back its losses (and more), working- and middle-class voters struggled to make up lost ground.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the incompetence of paranoid, authoritarian right wing rulers sows the seeds of their own demise. <em>“As a candidate, Mr. Trump sold himself as the champion of such voters — whom he called “the forgotten men and women” — and he promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. But once in office, he enlarged the swamp, hiring some 281 lobbyists, and set about cutting taxes for corporations and the very rich.</em>\r\n<em>He also began a war on the institutions that were the very pillars of the government he now headed. In early 2017, Mr. Trump’s then adviser and strategist Steve Bannon vowed that the administration would wage a tireless battle for the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and the administration has done so ever since — nihilistically trying to undermine public faith in the efficacy, the professionalism, even the mission of the institutions that are crucial for guarding our national security, negotiating with foreign governments and ensuring the safety of our environment and workplaces. Mr. Trump also launched chilling attacks on those he reviled — from the F.B.I. to the judiciary — for having failed to put loyalty to him ahead of loyalty to the Constitution.</em>\r\n<em>This is familiar behavior among authoritarians and would-be dictators, who resent constitutional checks and balances, and who want to make themselves the sole arbiters of truth and reality. A reporter said that in 2016 when she asked Mr. Trump why he continually assailed the press, he replied: “I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.”…</em>\r\n<em>One of the terrible ironies of Mr. Trump’s presidency is that his administration’s dysfunction — little to no policymaking process on many issues, impulsive decision-making, contempt for expertise and plunging morale at beleaguered agencies — creates a toxic feedback loop that further undermines public trust in the government and lends momentum to his desire to eviscerate the “deep state.” The conflicts of interest that swirl around Mr. Trump and his cronies further increase the public’s perception of corruption and unfairness.”</em>', 'The 2010s Were the End of Normal - How social media, the Great Recession and Donald Trump combined to bring out the ‘indigenous American berserk.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2672-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:30:40', '2020-01-06 04:30:40', '', 2672, 'https://marcellus.in/2672-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2674, 1, '2020-01-06 04:32:19', '2020-01-06 04:32:19', 'Given that many of us have spent our Christmas break speaking to friends and relatives who are either worried about the CAA-NRC turmoil in India or are exultant about India’s turn to the Right, we felt it is worth beginning the New Year on a positive note. We believe that this too shall pass, that the Indian Republic will emerge from its current examination stronger, not weaker. We shall overcome. Some of our reasons for optimism are echoed by this piece in the New York Times. Whilst Ms Kakutani’s piece is about USA and Trump, you can replace these proper nouns with Indian ones to understand why the Indian republic too can follow a similar path as the American one.\r\nThe first strand of optimism arises from the fact that American history reveals the rise of the Right to be episodic as opposed to being structural. Historian Richard Hofstadter calls Trump’s style of leadership “the paranoid style”.<em> “The “paranoid style,” Hofstadter observed, tends to occur in “episodic waves.” The modern right wing, he wrote, feels dispossessed: “America has been largely taken away from them and their kind, though they are determined to try to repossess it.” In their view, “the old American virtues have already been eaten away by cosmopolitans and intellectuals,” and national independence has been “destroyed by treasonous plots, having as their most powerful agents not merely outsiders and foreigners but major statesmen seated at the very centers of American power.”</em>\r\n<em>One well-known eruption of the “paranoid style” occurred in the 1950s with the anti-Communist hysteria led by Joseph McCarthy. It would surface again in the 1960s with the emergence on the national stage of George C. Wallace, who ran a presidential campaign fueled by racism and white working-class rage.</em>\r\n<em>In his 2018 book “The Soul of America,” the historian Jon Meacham also wrote about the cycles of hope and fear in American history, emphasizing the role that presidents play in setting a tone for the country and defining — or undermining — its founding ideals. He wrote about presidents who have worked to unify the country and appeal to what Abraham Lincoln called “the better angels of our nature,” and those who have courted discord and division.</em>\r\n<em>Lincoln was followed in office by his vice president Andrew Johnson, a champion of white supremacy who pardoned more than 7,000 Confederates and opposed the 14th Amendment. Johnson was impeached in 1868…”</em>\r\nSecondly, extremist sentiments rise when the economy is under the pump and such sentiments abate when prosperity becomes more widespread. <em>“Mr. Meacham note that “extremism, racism, nativism, and isolationism, driven by fear of the unknown, tend to spike in periods of economic and social stress.” Periods, that is, like our own, when change of every sort is blowing across the globe.</em>\r\n<em>The event that turned people’s sense of dislocation and disillusionment into populist anger on both the right (the Tea Party) and the left (Occupy Wall Street and, later, Bernie Sanders’s candidacy) was the 2008 financial crisis. Trust in government had been in sharp decline in previous decades — driven by Watergate and Vietnam in the 1970s, and more recently by the invasion of Iraq and the failure to find weapons of mass destruction there…But the lingering fallout of the 2008 crash — growing income inequality, declining social mobility and dwindling job security — ignited rage against the elites and the status quo.</em>\r\n<em>While the banks were bailed out and the fortunate 1 percent soon made back its losses (and more), working- and middle-class voters struggled to make up lost ground.”</em>\r\nThirdly, the incompetence of paranoid, authoritarian right wing rulers sows the seeds of their own demise. <em>“As a candidate, Mr. Trump sold himself as the champion of such voters — whom he called “the forgotten men and women” — and he promised to “drain the swamp” in Washington. But once in office, he enlarged the swamp, hiring some 281 lobbyists, and set about cutting taxes for corporations and the very rich.</em>\r\n<em>He also began a war on the institutions that were the very pillars of the government he now headed. In early 2017, Mr. Trump’s then adviser and strategist Steve Bannon vowed that the administration would wage a tireless battle for the “deconstruction of the administrative state” and the administration has done so ever since — nihilistically trying to undermine public faith in the efficacy, the professionalism, even the mission of the institutions that are crucial for guarding our national security, negotiating with foreign governments and ensuring the safety of our environment and workplaces. Mr. Trump also launched chilling attacks on those he reviled — from the F.B.I. to the judiciary — for having failed to put loyalty to him ahead of loyalty to the Constitution.</em>\r\n<em>This is familiar behavior among authoritarians and would-be dictators, who resent constitutional checks and balances, and who want to make themselves the sole arbiters of truth and reality. A reporter said that in 2016 when she asked Mr. Trump why he continually assailed the press, he replied: “I do it to discredit you all and demean you all so when you write negative stories about me, no one will believe you.”…</em>\r\n<em>One of the terrible ironies of Mr. Trump’s presidency is that his administration’s dysfunction — little to no policymaking process on many issues, impulsive decision-making, contempt for expertise and plunging morale at beleaguered agencies — creates a toxic feedback loop that further undermines public trust in the government and lends momentum to his desire to eviscerate the “deep state.” The conflicts of interest that swirl around Mr. Trump and his cronies further increase the public’s perception of corruption and unfairness.”</em>', 'The 2010s Were the End of Normal - How social media, the Great Recession and Donald Trump combined to bring out the ‘indigenous American berserk.’', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2672-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:32:19', '2020-01-06 04:32:19', '', 2672, 'https://marcellus.in/2672-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2570, 1, '2019-12-03 05:27:48', '2019-12-03 05:27:48', '', 'Coffee-Can-Investing-Saurabh-Mukherjea', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'coffee-can-investing-saurabh-mukherjea-2', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:27:48', '2019-12-03 05:27:48', '', 258, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Coffee-Can-Investing-Saurabh-Mukherjea.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2571, 1, '2019-12-03 05:28:09', '2019-12-03 05:28:09', 'Early in the new year, we will get an opportunity to buy super real estate developers at super cheap prices, Saurabh Mukherjea...', 'FY19 earnings growth likely to be pulled back to 8-10%: Saurabh Mukherjea', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '256-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:28:09', '2019-12-03 05:28:09', '', 256, 'https://marcellus.in/256-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2573, 1, '2019-12-03 05:31:36', '2019-12-03 05:31:36', '', 'Worried-about-foreign-fund-flows_-pharma-meaningfully-undervalued-Saurabh-Mukherjea', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'worried-about-foreign-fund-flows_-pharma-meaningfully-undervalued-saurabh-mukherjea', '', '', '2019-12-03 05:31:36', '2019-12-03 05:31:36', '', 251, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Worried-about-foreign-fund-flows_-pharma-meaningfully-undervalued-Saurabh-Mukherjea.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2576, 1, '2019-12-06 11:34:26', '2019-12-06 11:34:26', '<b>Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio consists of companies which have already delivered consistently healthy growth in their fundamentals over the past decade or longer, and where we expect the firms to deliver consistent compounding over the next decade as well. However, given the long and consistent historical track record of these companies, some investors are concerned around saturation of the growth runway for these firms given their large size vs global players in similar categories and given their already dominant market shares. Our portfolio companies overcome these potential challenges by: a) orienting their product portfolio towards a high volume of small ticket day-to-day essentials in a country which offers a long run-way for growth in middle class household consumption; and b) executing business expansion through institutionalised systems and processes, minimising product price hikes, and successfully expanding their product portfolio over time in adjacent product categories.</b>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 30<sup>th</sup> November 2019</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of five analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2539 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/nv219.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"500\" />\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_2655461665002810886mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_2655461665002810886mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<div><strong>Common apprehensions around size of consistent compounders</strong>\r\nOne of the first steps we take in our research process while trying to identify a ‘Consistent Compounder’ is a 10-years or longer historical track record of consistent and healthy fundamentals. In fact, many firms in our holding portfolio and in our coverage universe have delivered more than 20 years of consistency of healthy fundamentals. Such long and consistent track record of healthy fundamentals clearly means that by now most of our portfolio companies have become large in size (in terms of revenues, volumes, market share, etc).\r\nMoreover, given the low intended churn in our portfolio, our average holding period of a stock in the portfolio is likely to be at least 8-10 years. This means that at the very least, we don’t expect our portfolio companies to face saturation in terms of the growth run-way available to them.\r\nHowever, some of the common apprehensions that an investor might come across while investing in Consistent Compounders are:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Relaxo Footwears</strong> manufactured and sold 18 crores (180 mn) pairs of footwears in FY19 in India. Compared to this number, India’s population of Rs 125 crores is only 7-times bigger – two thirds of which lives in rural areas. In comparison, <strong>Adidas</strong> (including Reebok) sold 40 crores (400 mn) pairs across the world in CY18! With Relaxo’s volumes sold being half that of Adidas globally and half of urban India’s population count, isn’t it too large already to deliver consistent growth over the next decade?</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>HDFC Bank’s</strong> loan book size is around Rs 9.5 lakh crores currently (Rs 9.5 tn). <strong>JP Morgan Chase</strong>, one of America’s largest banks is only 7 times bigger than HDFC Bank in terms of loan book size. If HDFC Bank keeps compounding at 20-25% CAGR, it will become as big as JP Morgan Chase in a decade! Given the slow pace of financial inclusion in India, and the low per capita household income compared to the US, how can HDFC Bank become as large as US’s largest retail bank after only 10 years?</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Bajaj Finance’s</strong> customer franchise has increased from 35 lakh (3,500 K) customers 10 years ago, to 4 crore (40 mn) customers today. At this pace, Bajaj Finance’s customer franchise will increase to 40 crores (400 mn) by 2029. With only 25 crore households in India today, achieving a customer base of 40 crores might mean that there is a Bajaj Finance customer in every household of the country after a decade.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Another way of looking at the growth runway</strong>\r\nLet’s consider the following points about the three companies mentioned above - Relaxo, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Relaxo:</strong> India’s footwear industry is approx. Rs 40,000 crores in size. Relaxo’s revenues only Rs 2,300 crores (approx.) i.e. less than 6% of the market. 70% of the footwear industry is unorganized and the industry is likely to undergo a consistent shift from unorganized to organized footwear as GST compliance increases, aspirational consumption rises and customers look for better quality branded products. Products with a price point of Rs 2,000 or higher contribute to less than 15% of the overall market. Relaxo is the largest organized player in the economy segment industry because its inhouse manufacturing enables it to provide superior quality products at affordable price points (average revenue per unit sold for Relaxo stood at Rs 125 in FY19), backed by an aspirational brand recall (Sparx, Relaxo, Flite, Bahamas etc) and an efficient distribution network. Moreover, Relaxo has demonstrated its ability to: a) expand its product portfolio across sub-segments of the industry - from economy flip-flops 20 years ago to a sports shoes, sandals, women’s footwear, etc today; and b) premiumise its product portfolio over time – e.g. from white-and-blue economy flip flops (hawai chappals) to the Bahamas range of premium flip flops today. Hence, provided Relaxo continues to sustain and enhance its competitive advantages, it should not be difficult for the firm to increase its market share from 6% currently to 12% or higher over the next 10 years. Mathematically, doubling of market share over a decade contributes 7% to revenue CAGR. Alongside, if the overall footwear industry continues to grow at 10% CAGR or higher over the next decade, the runway for growth doesn’t appear to be a constraint for Relaxo.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance:</strong> Credit (loans) in the Indian banking industry has grown at 13% CAGR over the past decade, broadly in line with India’s nominal GDP growth rate. HDFC Bank currently has 7% market share in this industry and Bajaj Finance has approximately 1 % market share. As highlighted in our newsletter last month (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a7317c450d&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da7317c450d%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575710051198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGEc14ft4D36CA3TZfwouYuTbQZeQ\">click here</a>), HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance are amongst the best placed lenders in terms of their access to low cost funds (liabilities side of the balance sheet) and their ability to grow their loan book ahead of their competitors, particularly in the aftermath of the ongoing financial crisis. Both these banks have also demonstrated their ability to use technology as an enabler to manage high quality of large volumes in small ticket size loans as the external environment evolves whilst also widening the basket of products being offered to their customers. Hence, if the broader credit industry continues to grow at a rate higher than 10% CAGR over the next decade, and within that if firms like HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance double (to 12%) and treble (to 3%) their its market share respectively, the current size of these lenders won’t be an impediment to growth.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>What prevents consistent compounders from saturating in their growth potential?</strong>\r\nThe context given in this newsletter so far suggests that companies which have become 100 times (or more) bigger in size over the past two decades are not necessarily approaching saturation in their growth rates. This happens because of the following factors:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Demographic dividend</strong>: A young and large population combined with economic growth supported by rising middle class household consumption provides a long runway for growth to most sectors in India. To draw a parallel – it is true that America’s largest bank JP Morgan Chase is only 7x bigger than HDFC Bank, and only thrice as big as State Bank of India in terms of its loan book size. However, it is also true that China has <u>four</u> state owned banks – ICBC, China Construction Bank Corp, Agriculture Bank of China, and Bank of China – <u>each</u> of these is twice as big as JP Morgan.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Ability to successfully expand into adjacencies over time: </strong>Page Industries started its business in India with only mens innerwear 25 years ago – a category which is ~Rs 10,000 crores in category size currently. However, today under the same brand Jockey, Page has successfully expanded into women’s innerwear, leisurewear (outerwear), and kidswear – a total category size of over Rs 40,000 crores currently. In womenswear, 20-25 years ago, Relaxo Footwears used to sell predominantly rubber hawai chappals (white flip flops with blue straps) under the brand of Relaxo. Today, the firm has diversified into sports shoes (Sparx), floaters (Sparx), premium flip flops (Flite, Bahamas) etc. While Bajaj Finance was focused predominantly on consumer durable loans 8-10 years ago, today consumer durable loans contribute to no more than 10% of its overall loan book with the balance being diversified across home loans, business loans, personal loans etc. This ability to keep widening the basket of products whilst also sustaining the firm’s competitive advantages helps avoid market share related stagnation within a single product category.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Institutionalised systems and processes help play the small-ticket, high-volume game</strong>: A combination of large population in India and significant under-penetration of economy products in some of the most basic categories of day-to-day essentials creates a huge opportunity for a firm to scale up volumes in product categories of low ticket sizes. However, scaling up a pan-India business in such small ticket categories becomes difficult given the heterogeneity of consumer tastes and preferences across geographies, religions, socio-economic stratas; poor transportation and logistics infrastructure; demand centers which are remotely located from each other; and several local unorganized competitors as incumbents. One of the most common solutions to these challenges implemented by consistent compounders has been a strong focus on institutionalizing: a) IT investments in distribution and sales; b) professional empowerment of high quality talent; and c) strategic decision-making through an empowered and independent board of directors.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>A focus on product affordability via minimum price hikes: </strong>With price elasticity of demand being particularly high in low-ticket size product categories of day-to-day essentials, most Consistent Compounders minimise product price hikes while focusing on operating efficiencies to protect their profitability over time. This, combined with various other competitive advantages of these firms, ensures that there is limited room for a competitor to significantly disrupt the consistent compounder by way of ‘price wars’ by undercutting product prices. For instance, over the last couple of decades, Asian Paints has hiked product prices on a like for like basis by around 2.5% CAGR. Similarly, over the past 3-4 years, Dr. Lal Pathlabs has not hiked prices for its diagnostics tests at all.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nMost stocks in our Consistent Compounders portfolio exhibit the characteristics mentioned above while executing their business expansion. Provided, we continue to have conviction on the ability of our portfolio companies to sustain their competitive advantages, the risk of the growth runway becoming saturated appears to us to be low. Our analysis shows that the growth runway available to most of our portfolio companies - from category growth or market share gains or ability to expand the basket of product portfolio – remains long.\r\n\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table class=\"m_2655461665002810886mcnTextContentContainer\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td class=\"m_2655461665002810886mcnTextContent\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<div><strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span></strong></div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<em>Copyright © 2019 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Are consistent compounders too big to grow?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2537-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-12-06 11:34:26', '2019-12-06 11:34:26', '', 2537, 'https://marcellus.in/2537-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2582, 1, '2019-12-08 04:29:37', '2019-12-08 04:29:37', 'For the first time we are kicking-off of ‘Three Longs &amp; Three Shorts’ with a video because for the first time we have found a video which is worth more than a week of newspaper reading. Those of us who have watched Sacha Baron Cohen’s comedy over the past 25 years had no idea that the man is an articulate speaker with strong political convictions and with practical ideas to arrest the mess created by social media. If you love social media and the rise of the Far Right, you will not enjoy watching the video. Sacha Baron Cohen will describe for you a world of ideological imperialism where all of us sit enslaved as our societies hurtle towards a climate of mutual hatred and fear based on the colour of our skins, the languages that we speak and the gods that we worship.\r\nHere are a few snippets from the 24 minute video:\r\n“Today around the world demagogues appeal to our worst instincts…democracy which depends on shared truths is on the retreat and autocracy which depends on shared lies is on the increase…all this hate and intolerance is being propagated via a handful of internet companies….it is why Youtube recommends the videos of hate mongers billions of times…these social media companies amplify stories that appeal to our baser instincts…the greatest propaganda machine in history has spread the oldest lie in history ‘that Jews are somehow dangerous’. Just think what Goebbels could have done with the internet…On the internet everything can appeal equally legitimate. Brietbart resembles the BBC…the rantings of a lunatic can appear as credible as those a Nobel prize winner…we have lost it seems a shared sense of basic facts…Voltaire was right ‘those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities’….\r\nOver the next 12 months British voters will go to the polls with social media spreading the lie that white Christians are being swamped by Muslims. Americans will go to the polls with the lie that there is an Hispanic invasion of the country taking place…a sewer of bigotry and vile conspiracy theories…this can’t be what the creators of the internet had in mind…for the social media companies there entire business model is around generating engagement and nothing generates more engagement than lies and hatred…\r\nIf there are standards &amp; practices which regulate what TV &amp; cinemas can show, then surely there can be standards &amp; practices for social media companies…if Facebook were around in the 1930s it would allow Hitler to run 30 second adverts on his solution to the Jewish problem…we have to tell the social media companies “your product is defective, you are obliged to repair no matter how much it costs”…the ultimate aim of society has to be create a world where people are not targeted for who they are, who they love and how they pray…we can stop the greatest propaganda machine in history…”', 'ADL International Leadership Award Presented to Sacha Baron Cohen at Never Is Now 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'adl-international-leadership-award-presented-to-sacha-baron-cohen-at-never-is-now-2019', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:34:41', '2019-12-09 04:34:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2582', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2583, 1, '2019-12-09 04:34:41', '2019-12-09 04:34:41', 'For the first time we are kicking-off of ‘Three Longs &amp; Three Shorts’ with a video because for the first time we have found a video which is worth more than a week of newspaper reading. Those of us who have watched Sacha Baron Cohen’s comedy over the past 25 years had no idea that the man is an articulate speaker with strong political convictions and with practical ideas to arrest the mess created by social media. If you love social media and the rise of the Far Right, you will not enjoy watching the video. Sacha Baron Cohen will describe for you a world of ideological imperialism where all of us sit enslaved as our societies hurtle towards a climate of mutual hatred and fear based on the colour of our skins, the languages that we speak and the gods that we worship.\r\nHere are a few snippets from the 24 minute video:\r\n“Today around the world demagogues appeal to our worst instincts…democracy which depends on shared truths is on the retreat and autocracy which depends on shared lies is on the increase…all this hate and intolerance is being propagated via a handful of internet companies….it is why Youtube recommends the videos of hate mongers billions of times…these social media companies amplify stories that appeal to our baser instincts…the greatest propaganda machine in history has spread the oldest lie in history ‘that Jews are somehow dangerous’. Just think what Goebbels could have done with the internet…On the internet everything can appeal equally legitimate. Brietbart resembles the BBC…the rantings of a lunatic can appear as credible as those a Nobel prize winner…we have lost it seems a shared sense of basic facts…Voltaire was right ‘those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities’….\r\nOver the next 12 months British voters will go to the polls with social media spreading the lie that white Christians are being swamped by Muslims. Americans will go to the polls with the lie that there is an Hispanic invasion of the country taking place…a sewer of bigotry and vile conspiracy theories…this can’t be what the creators of the internet had in mind…for the social media companies there entire business model is around generating engagement and nothing generates more engagement than lies and hatred…\r\nIf there are standards &amp; practices which regulate what TV &amp; cinemas can show, then surely there can be standards &amp; practices for social media companies…if Facebook were around in the 1930s it would allow Hitler to run 30 second adverts on his solution to the Jewish problem…we have to tell the social media companies “your product is defective, you are obliged to repair no matter how much it costs”…the ultimate aim of society has to be create a world where people are not targeted for who they are, who they love and how they pray…we can stop the greatest propaganda machine in history…”', 'ADL International Leadership Award Presented to Sacha Baron Cohen at Never Is Now 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2582-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:34:41', '2019-12-09 04:34:41', '', 2582, 'https://marcellus.in/2582-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2584, 1, '2019-12-08 04:34:51', '2019-12-08 04:34:51', 'We will shift focus from Silicon Valley’s darker side to its mellower side. The Hippie counterculture from the 1960s now finds itself at the heart of capitalism. How did that happen? Well, as with most things these days, Silicon Valley played a big role: <em>“Google, Apple, Facebook, Nike, Procter &amp; Gamble and General Motors all offer programmes on mindfulness, a broad term for a number of Eastern-influenced practices designed to help you focus on the here and now. Employees at the headquarters of Cisco Systems in San Jose can attend the LifeConnections Health Centre, where they focus on the “four pillars” of wellbeing – body, mind, spirit and heart. Its senior integrated health manager for global benefits, Katelyn Johnson, is responsible for cultivating the Cisco ideal of the “corporate athlete” – ripped in body and mind. At Aetna, a giant American health-insurance company, more than a quarter of the 50,000-strong workforce have now attended at least one of the in-house mindfulness classes. According to the firm, the productivity per week of the average participant has increased by 62 minutes, and the resulting value to the company is in the region of $3,000 per employee each year. Alongside open-plan offices, ping-pong tables and informal dress codes, mindfulness in the workplace is an idea that took hold in Silicon Valley and subsequently took over the world. What was once the preserve of the retreat centre is now a sound business practice: mysticism with a measurable return on investment.”</em>\r\nThe guy who really kicked off Silicon Valley’s shift towards Hippie counterculture was Stewart Brand, a photographer and a former army parachutist, and he did it with that most innocuous of instruments, a catalogue: <em>“In 1968 he published the first edition of “The Whole Earth Catalog”, a sort of hippie mix of Which? magazine, mail-order catalogue and “The Dangerous Book for Boys”. The first edition contains articles on Japanese house-building and tensile structures, guides to growing mushrooms and keeping bees, and reviews of everything from meditation cushions to deerskin moccasins and the Hewlett-Packard 9100A Computer (“a superb inquiry machine”). Each of the Catalog’s 63 pages was a patchwork of text, diagram, table and photographic image dedicated to the proposition that, put to proper use, technology can have a liberating effect on mankind. In a commencement address at Stanford in 2005, Steve Jobs described it as “one of the bibles of my generation…sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along.””</em>\r\nThe Whole Earth offices were in Menlo Park, also home to the Homebrew Computer Club, and this is where some of Silicon Valley’s earliest blockbuster products – including the first Apple computer – were unveiled: <em>“The kinship of the counterculture and contemporary corporate culture is less paradoxical than it seems. The faith Stewart Brand and his associates placed in the communitarian ideal led directly to the informality and organisational flatness that characterises how Silicon Valley – and the global corporations in its thrall – does business today. In any case, the counterculture was always a middle-class phenomenon. Abraham Maslow taught at Esalen and was perhaps the most important intellectual influence on its founders. He suggested in his famous Hierarchy of Needs that self- actualisation is only possible when the basic requirements of “food, water, warmth and rest” have been met. Accordingly, for the most part it was the young, white, college-educated beneficiaries of the post-war economic boom that had the leisure time to indulge in psychedelics and soulcraft.”</em>\r\nThen over the last 40 years Silicon Valley found a bunch of entrepreneurs who took the mysticism and meditation of the 1960s and fused it with modern medicine to create stuff which actually delivers tangible health benefits: <em>“Jon Kabat-Zinn..in 1965, when he was studying for his phd in molecular biology at MIT, Kabat-Zinn attended a talk on meditation by an American-born teacher of Zen Buddhism, whose teachings he became increasingly intrigued by over the next decade. If meditation encouraged greater awareness of body and mind, what effect might it have on apparently intractable conditions like chronic pain and depression? Kabat-Zinn’s challenge was to bridge the two cultures…By 1979 he had developed a technique he called mindfulness-based stress reduction, or MBSR, which combined elements of hatha yoga with Buddhist mindfulness meditation, but divested them of their spiritual trappings.</em>\r\n<em>It was a decisive step in the normalisation of these esoteric ideas. Relieved of its religious baggage, mindfulness became a fit subject for scientific study. Hundreds of randomised controlled trials have since shown the effectiveness of MBSR and related techniques in reducing levels of cortisol, a hormone associated with stress, as well as improving memory and visual-spatial processing, and alleviating the wandering thought-patterns that can characterise depression and poor focus. Nirvana could wait: mindfulness was now academically respectable, the materialist’s panacea. MBSR and related therapeutic approaches are now offered by health-care systems all over the world…”</em>\r\nOnce mindfulness’ benefits were established, in a high stress environment like Silicon Valley its popularity rocketed and that allowed meditation, mysticism and the other associated paraphernalia of Hippie culture to become mainstream in the most influential business community in the world. In Silicon Valley today you will find: <em>“…in the Mission District, I visit the hipsterish raw-concrete offices of Pax Labs, where “the cannabis space”, as CEO Bharat Vasan refers to it, converges with mobile technology. (Vasan has since left the company.) Pax’s standout product is the Era, a sleek, super-lightweight vape pen designed for use with detachable pods of cannabis concentrate: the stoner’s equivalent of a Nespresso machine. The accompanying app means that dosage and vaping temperature can be controlled from your smartphone.</em>\r\n<em>“Temperature matters a great deal in our space,” explains Vasan, who sold his previous startup, a fitness-wearables company called Basis, to Intel for $100m. “Concentrates volatise at different temperatures. It’s just like with wine: the glass really matters. Different temperatures are the equivalent of wine glasses.” His objective is a “super-polished experience” in the vein of Apple or Tesla, to claim a slice of a market that Vasan estimates will be worth around $90bn “in the next five years”…”</em>', 'Hippie Inc: how the counterculture went corporate', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'hippie-inc-how-the-counterculture-went-corporate', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:36:36', '2019-12-09 04:36:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2584', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2585, 1, '2019-12-09 04:36:36', '2019-12-09 04:36:36', 'We will shift focus from Silicon Valley’s darker side to its mellower side. The Hippie counterculture from the 1960s now finds itself at the heart of capitalism. How did that happen? Well, as with most things these days, Silicon Valley played a big role: <em>“Google, Apple, Facebook, Nike, Procter &amp; Gamble and General Motors all offer programmes on mindfulness, a broad term for a number of Eastern-influenced practices designed to help you focus on the here and now. Employees at the headquarters of Cisco Systems in San Jose can attend the LifeConnections Health Centre, where they focus on the “four pillars” of wellbeing – body, mind, spirit and heart. Its senior integrated health manager for global benefits, Katelyn Johnson, is responsible for cultivating the Cisco ideal of the “corporate athlete” – ripped in body and mind. At Aetna, a giant American health-insurance company, more than a quarter of the 50,000-strong workforce have now attended at least one of the in-house mindfulness classes. According to the firm, the productivity per week of the average participant has increased by 62 minutes, and the resulting value to the company is in the region of $3,000 per employee each year. Alongside open-plan offices, ping-pong tables and informal dress codes, mindfulness in the workplace is an idea that took hold in Silicon Valley and subsequently took over the world. What was once the preserve of the retreat centre is now a sound business practice: mysticism with a measurable return on investment.”</em>\r\nThe guy who really kicked off Silicon Valley’s shift towards Hippie counterculture was Stewart Brand, a photographer and a former army parachutist, and he did it with that most innocuous of instruments, a catalogue: <em>“In 1968 he published the first edition of “The Whole Earth Catalog”, a sort of hippie mix of Which? magazine, mail-order catalogue and “The Dangerous Book for Boys”. The first edition contains articles on Japanese house-building and tensile structures, guides to growing mushrooms and keeping bees, and reviews of everything from meditation cushions to deerskin moccasins and the Hewlett-Packard 9100A Computer (“a superb inquiry machine”). Each of the Catalog’s 63 pages was a patchwork of text, diagram, table and photographic image dedicated to the proposition that, put to proper use, technology can have a liberating effect on mankind. In a commencement address at Stanford in 2005, Steve Jobs described it as “one of the bibles of my generation…sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along.””</em>\r\nThe Whole Earth offices were in Menlo Park, also home to the Homebrew Computer Club, and this is where some of Silicon Valley’s earliest blockbuster products – including the first Apple computer – were unveiled: <em>“The kinship of the counterculture and contemporary corporate culture is less paradoxical than it seems. The faith Stewart Brand and his associates placed in the communitarian ideal led directly to the informality and organisational flatness that characterises how Silicon Valley – and the global corporations in its thrall – does business today. In any case, the counterculture was always a middle-class phenomenon. Abraham Maslow taught at Esalen and was perhaps the most important intellectual influence on its founders. He suggested in his famous Hierarchy of Needs that self- actualisation is only possible when the basic requirements of “food, water, warmth and rest” have been met. Accordingly, for the most part it was the young, white, college-educated beneficiaries of the post-war economic boom that had the leisure time to indulge in psychedelics and soulcraft.”</em>\r\nThen over the last 40 years Silicon Valley found a bunch of entrepreneurs who took the mysticism and meditation of the 1960s and fused it with modern medicine to create stuff which actually delivers tangible health benefits: <em>“Jon Kabat-Zinn..in 1965, when he was studying for his phd in molecular biology at MIT, Kabat-Zinn attended a talk on meditation by an American-born teacher of Zen Buddhism, whose teachings he became increasingly intrigued by over the next decade. If meditation encouraged greater awareness of body and mind, what effect might it have on apparently intractable conditions like chronic pain and depression? Kabat-Zinn’s challenge was to bridge the two cultures…By 1979 he had developed a technique he called mindfulness-based stress reduction, or MBSR, which combined elements of hatha yoga with Buddhist mindfulness meditation, but divested them of their spiritual trappings.</em>\r\n<em>It was a decisive step in the normalisation of these esoteric ideas. Relieved of its religious baggage, mindfulness became a fit subject for scientific study. Hundreds of randomised controlled trials have since shown the effectiveness of MBSR and related techniques in reducing levels of cortisol, a hormone associated with stress, as well as improving memory and visual-spatial processing, and alleviating the wandering thought-patterns that can characterise depression and poor focus. Nirvana could wait: mindfulness was now academically respectable, the materialist’s panacea. MBSR and related therapeutic approaches are now offered by health-care systems all over the world…”</em>\r\nOnce mindfulness’ benefits were established, in a high stress environment like Silicon Valley its popularity rocketed and that allowed meditation, mysticism and the other associated paraphernalia of Hippie culture to become mainstream in the most influential business community in the world. In Silicon Valley today you will find: <em>“…in the Mission District, I visit the hipsterish raw-concrete offices of Pax Labs, where “the cannabis space”, as CEO Bharat Vasan refers to it, converges with mobile technology. (Vasan has since left the company.) Pax’s standout product is the Era, a sleek, super-lightweight vape pen designed for use with detachable pods of cannabis concentrate: the stoner’s equivalent of a Nespresso machine. The accompanying app means that dosage and vaping temperature can be controlled from your smartphone.</em>\r\n<em>“Temperature matters a great deal in our space,” explains Vasan, who sold his previous startup, a fitness-wearables company called Basis, to Intel for $100m. “Concentrates volatise at different temperatures. It’s just like with wine: the glass really matters. Different temperatures are the equivalent of wine glasses.” His objective is a “super-polished experience” in the vein of Apple or Tesla, to claim a slice of a market that Vasan estimates will be worth around $90bn “in the next five years”…”</em>', 'Hippie Inc: how the counterculture went corporate', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2584-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:36:36', '2019-12-09 04:36:36', '', 2584, 'https://marcellus.in/2584-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2586, 1, '2019-12-08 04:37:46', '2019-12-08 04:37:46', 'Social media and the rise of user-generated content has certainly bridged a lot of information gaps but also raised questions around authenticity leading to issues highlighted elsewhere in this piece, especially around fake news driven political propaganda. The issues become somewhat more serious if it were to be in the field of health and medicine. At the basic level, patients consulting ‘Google’ as their first port of call for a general physician and then self-medicating based on internet content is an issue in itself. But what if medical practitioners themselves were relying on ‘Youtube videos’ to pick up surgical skills and bridge the gap in their training? This piece by Christina Farr suggests the existence of thousands of such tutorial like videos and also the practice of using them to learn skills. Whilst many of them are genuinely helping young practitioners pick up skills, several are dubious in quality, thereby raising the likelihood of sub-optimal healthcare that could risk patients\' lives.\r\n<em>“CNBC found tens of thousands of videos showing a wide variety of medical procedures on the Google-owned video platform, some of them hovering around a million views. People have livestreamed giving birth and broadcast their face-lifts. One video, which shows the removal of a dense, white cataract, has gone somewhat viral and now has more than 1.7 million views. Others seem to have found crossover appeal with nonmedical viewers, such as a video from the U.K.-based group Audiology Associates showing a weirdly satisfying removal of a giant glob of earwax.</em>\r\n<em>Doctors are uploading these videos to market themselves or to help others in the field, and the amount is growing by leaps and bounds. Researchers in January found more than 20,000 videos related to prostate surgery alone, compared with just 500 videos in 2009.</em>\r\n<em>The videos are a particular boon for doctors in training. When the University of Iowa surveyed its surgeons, including its fourth-year medical students and residents, it found that YouTube was the most-used video source for surgical preparation by far.</em>\r\n<em>…. How can doctors tell which videos are valid and which contain bogus information?</em>\r\n<em>For instance, one recent study found more than 68,000 videos associated with a common procedure known as a distal radius fracture immobilization. The researchers evaluated the content for their technical skill demonstrated and educational skill, and created a score. Only 16 of the videos even met basic criteria, including whether they were performed by a health-care professional or institution. Among those, the scores were mixed. In several cases, the credentials of the person performing the procedure could not be identified at all.</em>\r\n<em>Even more concerning, studies are finding that the YouTube algorithm is highly ranking videos where the technique isn’t optimal. A group of researchers found that for a surgical technique called a laparoscopic cholecystectomy, about half the videos showed unsafe maneuvers.”</em>', 'Doctors are turning to YouTube to learn how to do surgical procedures, but there’s no quality control', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'doctors-are-turning-to-youtube-to-learn-how-to-do-surgical-procedures-but-theres-no-quality-control', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:40:06', '2019-12-09 04:40:06', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2586', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2587, 1, '2019-12-09 04:40:06', '2019-12-09 04:40:06', 'Social media and the rise of user-generated content has certainly bridged a lot of information gaps but also raised questions around authenticity leading to issues highlighted elsewhere in this piece, especially around fake news driven political propaganda. The issues become somewhat more serious if it were to be in the field of health and medicine. At the basic level, patients consulting ‘Google’ as their first port of call for a general physician and then self-medicating based on internet content is an issue in itself. But what if medical practitioners themselves were relying on ‘Youtube videos’ to pick up surgical skills and bridge the gap in their training? This piece by Christina Farr suggests the existence of thousands of such tutorial like videos and also the practice of using them to learn skills. Whilst many of them are genuinely helping young practitioners pick up skills, several are dubious in quality, thereby raising the likelihood of sub-optimal healthcare that could risk patients\' lives.\r\n<em>“CNBC found tens of thousands of videos showing a wide variety of medical procedures on the Google-owned video platform, some of them hovering around a million views. People have livestreamed giving birth and broadcast their face-lifts. One video, which shows the removal of a dense, white cataract, has gone somewhat viral and now has more than 1.7 million views. Others seem to have found crossover appeal with nonmedical viewers, such as a video from the U.K.-based group Audiology Associates showing a weirdly satisfying removal of a giant glob of earwax.</em>\r\n<em>Doctors are uploading these videos to market themselves or to help others in the field, and the amount is growing by leaps and bounds. Researchers in January found more than 20,000 videos related to prostate surgery alone, compared with just 500 videos in 2009.</em>\r\n<em>The videos are a particular boon for doctors in training. When the University of Iowa surveyed its surgeons, including its fourth-year medical students and residents, it found that YouTube was the most-used video source for surgical preparation by far.</em>\r\n<em>…. How can doctors tell which videos are valid and which contain bogus information?</em>\r\n<em>For instance, one recent study found more than 68,000 videos associated with a common procedure known as a distal radius fracture immobilization. The researchers evaluated the content for their technical skill demonstrated and educational skill, and created a score. Only 16 of the videos even met basic criteria, including whether they were performed by a health-care professional or institution. Among those, the scores were mixed. In several cases, the credentials of the person performing the procedure could not be identified at all.</em>\r\n<em>Even more concerning, studies are finding that the YouTube algorithm is highly ranking videos where the technique isn’t optimal. A group of researchers found that for a surgical technique called a laparoscopic cholecystectomy, about half the videos showed unsafe maneuvers.”</em>', 'Doctors are turning to YouTube to learn how to do surgical procedures, but there’s no quality control', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2586-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:40:06', '2019-12-09 04:40:06', '', 2586, 'https://marcellus.in/2586-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2588, 1, '2019-12-08 04:40:13', '2019-12-08 04:40:13', 'We all know of people who read voraciously and keep wondering how do they manage so whilst we struggle through pages. Without getting into the declining attention spans caused by social media, Morgan Housel writes in this blog that should put us out of our misery – most voracious readers also find it laborious to go through certain books. The trick is in dumping those ones mercilessly and moving on.\r\n<em>“My reading strategy is to start as many books as I can but finish few of them.Years ago I heard Charlie Munger say “Most books I don’t read past the first chapter. I’m not burdened by bad books,” and it stuck with me. Reading is a chore if you insist on finishing every book you begin, because the majority of books are either a) adequately summarized in the introduction, b) not for you, or c) not for anyone. Grinding your way to the last page of these books – a habit likely formed early in school – can turn reading into the equivalent of a 10-hour work meeting where nothing gets done and everyone is bored. And once you see reading through that lens, your willingness to pick up another book wanes.”</em>\r\nMorgan recommends a twin approach to get the most out of reading:<strong> Lots of inputs and a strong filter.</strong>\r\n<em>“…If you only pick up books you know with certainty you’re going to like you’ll confine yourself to reading the same authors on the same topics. It gives fresh oxygen to confirmation bias and limits your ability to connect the dots between different fields and different cultures. It’s better to have a low bar in what books you’re willing to try, and even the faintest tickle of interest should be enough to make the cut. Kindle samples are free so excuses are minimal.</em>\r\n<em>Once you’ve flooded your desk with inputs comes the filter. It should be ruthless, taking no prisoners and offering no mercy. Similar to dating, a book you’re not into after 10 minutes of attention has little chance of a happy ending. Slam it shut and move on. You’re not a failure if you quit a book after three pages anymore than if you reject the proposition of a 10-hour date with someone you just met who annoys you. Lots of fish in the sea.</em>\r\n<em>This applies to more than reading books. It’s true for all kinds of data, research, conversation, and learning. Without flooding your brain with inputs you’ll be stuck in the teeny tiny world of what you’ve personally experienced. But without a strong filter you’ll be overwhelmed with choice and paralyzed by inaction.</em>\r\n<em>A good reading filter is more art than science. You’ll have to find one that works for you. The bigger point is that the highest odds of finding the right piece of information comes from inundating yourself with information but very quickly being able to say, “that ain’t it.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street has a more detailed section on reading advice (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b8f8be90a&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3b8f8be90a%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575950728214000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEIUcSwZpap0ows1jLUFwTYr61Pnw\">here</a>)', 'How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong Filter', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-read-lots-of-inputs-and-a-strong-filter', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:43:55', '2019-12-09 04:43:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2588', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2589, 1, '2019-12-09 04:43:55', '2019-12-09 04:43:55', 'We all know of people who read voraciously and keep wondering how do they manage so whilst we struggle through pages. Without getting into the declining attention spans caused by social media, Morgan Housel writes in this blog that should put us out of our misery – most voracious readers also find it laborious to go through certain books. The trick is in dumping those ones mercilessly and moving on.\r\n<em>“My reading strategy is to start as many books as I can but finish few of them.Years ago I heard Charlie Munger say “Most books I don’t read past the first chapter. I’m not burdened by bad books,” and it stuck with me. Reading is a chore if you insist on finishing every book you begin, because the majority of books are either a) adequately summarized in the introduction, b) not for you, or c) not for anyone. Grinding your way to the last page of these books – a habit likely formed early in school – can turn reading into the equivalent of a 10-hour work meeting where nothing gets done and everyone is bored. And once you see reading through that lens, your willingness to pick up another book wanes.”</em>\r\nMorgan recommends a twin approach to get the most out of reading:<strong> Lots of inputs and a strong filter.</strong>\r\n<em>“…If you only pick up books you know with certainty you’re going to like you’ll confine yourself to reading the same authors on the same topics. It gives fresh oxygen to confirmation bias and limits your ability to connect the dots between different fields and different cultures. It’s better to have a low bar in what books you’re willing to try, and even the faintest tickle of interest should be enough to make the cut. Kindle samples are free so excuses are minimal.</em>\r\n<em>Once you’ve flooded your desk with inputs comes the filter. It should be ruthless, taking no prisoners and offering no mercy. Similar to dating, a book you’re not into after 10 minutes of attention has little chance of a happy ending. Slam it shut and move on. You’re not a failure if you quit a book after three pages anymore than if you reject the proposition of a 10-hour date with someone you just met who annoys you. Lots of fish in the sea.</em>\r\n<em>This applies to more than reading books. It’s true for all kinds of data, research, conversation, and learning. Without flooding your brain with inputs you’ll be stuck in the teeny tiny world of what you’ve personally experienced. But without a strong filter you’ll be overwhelmed with choice and paralyzed by inaction.</em>\r\n<em>A good reading filter is more art than science. You’ll have to find one that works for you. The bigger point is that the highest odds of finding the right piece of information comes from inundating yourself with information but very quickly being able to say, “that ain’t it.”</em>\r\nFarnam Street has a more detailed section on reading advice (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3b8f8be90a&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3b8f8be90a%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575950728214000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEIUcSwZpap0ows1jLUFwTYr61Pnw\">here</a>)', 'How to Read: Lots of Inputs and a Strong Filter', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2588-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:43:55', '2019-12-09 04:43:55', '', 2588, 'https://marcellus.in/2588-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2590, 1, '2019-12-08 04:44:01', '2019-12-08 04:44:01', 'A common question from clients these days is “<em>How comfortable are you investing now given the markets (and your portfolio stocks) are at all-time highs?”. </em>Our simple answer is that our portfolio earnings are also at all-time highs. Indeed, for the fiscal year to date, our portfolio is up a little over 20% whilst its weighted average earnings are up 46% yoy for H1 FY2020. This is of course driven by the tax rate cuts announced by the government but the benefits of those tax cuts do accrue to shareholders and should get reflected in stock prices. In this piece, Ben Carlson reinforces the fact that in general equities in the long run are upward trending (giving profits tend to grow) and hence all-time highs are completely normal. Ofcourse, he does caution that eventually one of these all-time highs will form a short/medium term top and hence may suggest moderation of future returns.\r\n<em>“So on the one hand, don’t be afraid of all-time highs. If you plan on being in the stock market over the long-term, you’re going to have to get used to the fact that stocks mostly go up over time and new highs are completely normal. In fact, following an all-time high, stocks are up roughly 70% of the time going out one, three and five years into the future.</em>\r\n<em>On the other hand, the reason 1 out of every 20 days has been a new all-time high historically is because you can’t set your watch to it. Eventually, one of these highs will be the top. Just know that there are so many highs in the market that it’s impossible to predict with any degree of certainty which one that will be.”</em>', 'All-Time Highs Are Both Scary & Normal', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'all-time-highs-are-both-scary-normal', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:55:49', '2019-12-09 04:55:49', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2590', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2591, 1, '2019-12-09 04:52:13', '2019-12-09 04:52:13', 'A common question from clients these days is “<em>How comfortable are you investing now given the markets (and your portfolio stocks) are at all-time highs?”. </em>Our simple answer is that our portfolio earnings are also at all-time highs. Indeed, for the fiscal year to date, our portfolio is up a little over 20% whilst its weighted average earnings are up 46% yoy for H1 FY2020. This is of course driven by the tax rate cuts announced by the government but the benefits of those tax cuts do accrue to shareholders and should get reflected in stock prices. In this piece, Ben Carlson reinforces the fact that in general equities in the long run are upward trending (giving profits tend to grow) and hence all-time highs are completely normal. Ofcourse, he does caution that eventually one of these all-time highs will form a short/medium term top and hence may suggest moderation of future returns.\r\n<em>“So on the one hand, don’t be afraid of all-time highs. If you plan on being in the stock market over the long-term, you’re going to have to get used to the fact that stocks mostly go up over time and new highs are completely normal. In fact, following an all-time high, stocks are up roughly 70% of the time going out one, three and five years into the future.</em>\r\n<em>On the other hand, the reason 1 out of every 20 days has been a new all-time high historically is because you can’t set your watch to it. Eventually, one of these highs will be the top. Just know that there are so many highs in the market that it’s impossible to predict with any degree of certainty which one that will be.”</em>', 'All-Time Highs Are Both Scary & Normal', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2590-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 04:52:13', '2019-12-09 04:52:13', '', 2590, 'https://marcellus.in/2590-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2592, 1, '2019-12-08 04:56:23', '2019-12-08 04:56:23', 'Corruption is often attributed as one of the key impediments to development and growth. However, Shrabani Saha and Kunal Sen of the United Nations University in a working paper (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92e44eda44&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D92e44eda44%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575950728215000&amp;usg=AFQjCNElUETtTZu7KsYyu06wMCCl67bAdw\">here</a>) show that there is indeed a positive correlation between corruption and growth drawing from the experiences of East Asian economies who demonstrated long periods of high growth despite evidence of high corruption. However, Saha and Sen show that this relationship holds only for autocratic states whilst the relationship inverts to normalcy in democracies as generally expected.\r\n<em>“Our results provide support for the so-called East Asian paradox of high corruption and high growth and suggest that the benign effect of corruption on growth is because of the authoritarian nature of the political regimes in these countries for a large duration of their development experience that gives firms confidence that the ruling powers will deliver on the deals that they have entered into and these credible commitments are vital for investment and growth. These credible commitments can be achieved through promoting economic freedom and maintain macrocosmic stability in a country. On the contrary, for the average democratic countries, the effect of corruption on growth is likely to be strongly negative. Democratization is likely to weaken the positive relationship between corruption and growth in previously autocratic countries, and the increasing wave of democratization observed in the developing world suggests that corruption may be more of a threat to economic growth in the years ahead.”  </em>', 'When is corruption good for growth?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'when-is-corruption-good-for-growth', '', '', '2019-12-09 05:01:37', '2019-12-09 05:01:37', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2592', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2593, 1, '2019-12-09 05:01:37', '2019-12-09 05:01:37', 'Corruption is often attributed as one of the key impediments to development and growth. However, Shrabani Saha and Kunal Sen of the United Nations University in a working paper (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=92e44eda44&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D92e44eda44%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1575950728215000&amp;usg=AFQjCNElUETtTZu7KsYyu06wMCCl67bAdw\">here</a>) show that there is indeed a positive correlation between corruption and growth drawing from the experiences of East Asian economies who demonstrated long periods of high growth despite evidence of high corruption. However, Saha and Sen show that this relationship holds only for autocratic states whilst the relationship inverts to normalcy in democracies as generally expected.\r\n<em>“Our results provide support for the so-called East Asian paradox of high corruption and high growth and suggest that the benign effect of corruption on growth is because of the authoritarian nature of the political regimes in these countries for a large duration of their development experience that gives firms confidence that the ruling powers will deliver on the deals that they have entered into and these credible commitments are vital for investment and growth. These credible commitments can be achieved through promoting economic freedom and maintain macrocosmic stability in a country. On the contrary, for the average democratic countries, the effect of corruption on growth is likely to be strongly negative. Democratization is likely to weaken the positive relationship between corruption and growth in previously autocratic countries, and the increasing wave of democratization observed in the developing world suggests that corruption may be more of a threat to economic growth in the years ahead.”  </em>', 'When is corruption good for growth?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2592-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-09 05:01:37', '2019-12-09 05:01:37', '', 2592, 'https://marcellus.in/2592-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2715, 1, '2020-01-13 04:32:40', '2020-01-13 04:32:40', 'Thanks to two incredibly popular books – ‘Deep Work’ and ‘Digital Minimalism’ – Cal Newport’s status as a modern guru who can help us work smarter and think deeper is already well established. Here he comes up with a superb blog to get our engine started nicely for 2020.\r\nHe says that if you really want to do the digital detox highlighted in his book ‘Digital Minimalism’, it is far more likely that you will pull it off if you actually started to do more meaningful non-digital stuff.<em> “…if you fill your life with hard but satisfying analog alternatives — activities that resonate with our primal urges to connect, to move, to reflect, to be surrounded by nature, to manipulate elements of the physical world with out hands — you’ll find the appeal of animated GIFs and ASCII snark to be greatly diminished.”</em>\r\nIn order to help you do this, Newport has created <em>“the Analog January Challenge. It’s a collection of five commitments that last one month. They’re designed to provide you a crash course introduction to the types of satisfying analog activities that will reduce the anxious attraction of your screens.”</em>\r\nSo here are the five commitments which make up the Challenge:\r\n<em>“READ: Commit to reading 3 – 4 new books during the month…The goal is to rediscover what it feels like to make engagement with the written word an important part of your daily experience.</em>\r\n<em>MOVE: Commit to going for a walk every single day of the month. Try to make it at least 15 minutes long. Leave your phone at home…</em>\r\n<em>CONNECT: Hold a real conversation with 20 different people during the monthlong challenge. These conversations can be in person or over the phone/Facetime/Skype, but text-based communication doesn’t count…</em>\r\n<em>MAKE: Participate in a skilled hobby that requires you to interact with the physical world. This could be craft-based, like knitting, drawing, wood working, or, as I’ve taken to doing with my boys, building custom circuits. This could also be athletic, like biking, bow hunting, or, as is increasingly popular these days, Brazilian Ju Jitsu. Screen-based activities don’t count…</em>\r\n<em>JOIN: Join something local that meets weekly. For many people, this might be the hardest commitment, but it’s arguably one of the most important, especially as we enter a political season where the pseudo-anonymity and limbic-triggers of the online world attempt to bring out the worse in us. There’s nothing more fundamentally human than gathering with a group of real people in real life to work on something real together...”</em>\r\nFor most office workers in Mumbai, the last two challenges feel very challenging. But Newport urges us to not lose hope. He says that if we spend less time with our phones, these challenges will become tractable.  He says that <em>“…for the duration of the challenge that you dumb down your smartphone by following the rules I outlined </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=56cdc1dde6&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D56cdc1dde6%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578974197790000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLzx2heSXMFOXO4rxOw8zob_40LQ\"><em>here</em></a><em> (summary: use your phone only for calls, texts, maps, and audio — </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39ea067f8a&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D39ea067f8a%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578974197790000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOGFDfZwlQ8Xym91z0ItQIx_fOtg\"><em>as Steve Jobs originally intended</em></a><em>).</em>\r\n<em>Furthermore, I’d suggest that when you access social media on your computer, you always log out when you’re done, and un-save your password — introducing the crucial extra friction of typing in this information every time you want to check your account.</em><em>”</em>', 'The Analog January Challenge', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2714-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:32:40', '2020-01-13 04:32:40', '', 2714, 'https://marcellus.in/2714-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2716, 1, '2020-01-12 04:37:04', '2020-01-12 04:37:04', 'The term ‘space pollution’ is being increasingly used by astronomers as human interest and hence activity outside of the planet has risen. This piece in the Vox highlights that this is set to rise exponentially in future as Elon Musk and others launch a myriad satellites in their endeavour to deliver internet from the sky. The numbers are staggering: <em>“Soon, Earth may be blanketed by tens of thousands of satellites, and they’ll greatly outnumber the approximately 9,000 stars that are visible to an unaided human eye. This is not some distant threat. It’s already happening. [Elon Musk\'s] SpaceX has already put 180 of these small satellites, collectively called Starlink, in the sky. Sixty were launched Monday. That will be followed by more launches, possibly every two weeks. In all, the company has approval from the Federal Communications Commission to launch 12,000 satellites, and Musk is seeking approval to launch 30,000 more.</em> <em>SpaceX’s goal is for Starlink satellites to form into a constellation that will provide internet access, for a price, to remote areas of Earth.</em>\r\n<em>...And it’s hardly the only company in this market. OneWeb, a UK-based company that also wants to beam internet access from space, is seeking to launch 650 satellites, beginning this January. Amazon wants to launch 3,200 satellites, in a constellation called Kuiper, also with the goal of selling internet access. In the near future, there could be 50,000 or more small satellites encircling the Earth, and for purposes other than delivering internet. These new satellites are small, mass-produced, and orbit very closely to the Earth to ensure the internet connection they provide is speedy. But that closeness also makes them more visible, and brighter in the night sky. “Satellites launched by SpaceX and others will be brighter than 99 percent of the population of objects of all types currently in Earth orbit,”</em>\r\n<em>...There are a lot of other potential concerns about so many satellites in the sky. One is space debris. When a satellite breaks down in space, it just stays up there as junk until gravity pulls it back down to Earth. Already, several Starlink satellites have stopped functioning and are just hanging out up there as debris, where they present a hazard for colliding with other objects in space…. “If you’re going to put up 10,000, or 20,000 or 30,000 satellites, you automatically, instantly intentionally have hundreds of pieces of debris right off the bat,”</em>', 'You’ll see the sky crawling”: Astronomers fear that satellites will crowd out stars', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'youll-see-the-sky-crawling-astronomers-fear-that-satellites-will-crowd-out-stars', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:44:46', '2020-01-13 04:44:46', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2716', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2717, 1, '2020-01-13 04:44:46', '2020-01-13 04:44:46', 'The term ‘space pollution’ is being increasingly used by astronomers as human interest and hence activity outside of the planet has risen. This piece in the Vox highlights that this is set to rise exponentially in future as Elon Musk and others launch a myriad satellites in their endeavour to deliver internet from the sky. The numbers are staggering: <em>“Soon, Earth may be blanketed by tens of thousands of satellites, and they’ll greatly outnumber the approximately 9,000 stars that are visible to an unaided human eye. This is not some distant threat. It’s already happening. [Elon Musk\'s] SpaceX has already put 180 of these small satellites, collectively called Starlink, in the sky. Sixty were launched Monday. That will be followed by more launches, possibly every two weeks. In all, the company has approval from the Federal Communications Commission to launch 12,000 satellites, and Musk is seeking approval to launch 30,000 more.</em> <em>SpaceX’s goal is for Starlink satellites to form into a constellation that will provide internet access, for a price, to remote areas of Earth.</em>\r\n<em>...And it’s hardly the only company in this market. OneWeb, a UK-based company that also wants to beam internet access from space, is seeking to launch 650 satellites, beginning this January. Amazon wants to launch 3,200 satellites, in a constellation called Kuiper, also with the goal of selling internet access. In the near future, there could be 50,000 or more small satellites encircling the Earth, and for purposes other than delivering internet. These new satellites are small, mass-produced, and orbit very closely to the Earth to ensure the internet connection they provide is speedy. But that closeness also makes them more visible, and brighter in the night sky. “Satellites launched by SpaceX and others will be brighter than 99 percent of the population of objects of all types currently in Earth orbit,”</em>\r\n<em>...There are a lot of other potential concerns about so many satellites in the sky. One is space debris. When a satellite breaks down in space, it just stays up there as junk until gravity pulls it back down to Earth. Already, several Starlink satellites have stopped functioning and are just hanging out up there as debris, where they present a hazard for colliding with other objects in space…. “If you’re going to put up 10,000, or 20,000 or 30,000 satellites, you automatically, instantly intentionally have hundreds of pieces of debris right off the bat,”</em>', 'You’ll see the sky crawling”: Astronomers fear that satellites will crowd out stars', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2716-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:44:46', '2020-01-13 04:44:46', '', 2716, 'https://marcellus.in/2716-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2718, 1, '2020-01-12 04:45:06', '2020-01-12 04:45:06', 'The most common advice young graduating students at the cusp of choosing their careers, in particular receive is to “Follow Your Passion”. This HBR article shows why following your passion is over-rated or atleast seriously misunderstood. The author cites the following three reasons:\r\nFirst, “<em>passion is not something one finds, but rather, it is something to be developed;”…</em> <em>One common misperception people have about passion is that it is fixed: you either have passion for something or you don’t. The problem with this belief is that it’s limiting, leading us to think of passion as something we discover or happen upon…</em> <em>To better pursue your passion, challenge your assumption that passion is something to be discovered. Focus on actively developing a passion instead. For example, you can craft your job to spend more time exploring the tasks you are more passionate about (or simply those that pique your curiosity) and working with those who inspire you. It also helps to get to know coworkers, what they are passionate about, and how they view their work. This can lead to opportunities to help each other pursue your passions.”</em>\r\nSecond, “<em>it is challenging to pursue your passion, especially as it wanes over time;…</em> <em>One of the most common ways we try to pursue our passion is that we chase what gives us the most joy or is the most fun” </em>But what is fun can change with time and hence that passion can wane. Instead we should see <em>“the pursuit of passion as “focusing on what you care about.” The distinction is subtle but meaningful: focusing on what you love associates passion with what you enjoy and what makes you happy, whereas focusing on what you care about aligns passion with your values and the impact you want to have.”</em>\r\nThird, “<em>passion can also lead us astray, and it is therefore important to recognize its limits…</em> <em>Imagine you’re presenting a project at work that you are passionate about. We find that expressing your passion may only help you if your audience already agrees with what you are presenting. If they are not already on board, your passion for the subject may not be effective in bringing them along. Similarly, if you are an entrepreneur, expressing passion for your idea may help bring investors on board, but expressing passion when discussing the term sheet may not have the same inspiring effect because of who we allow to demonstrate passion…</em> <em>Another study, led by Erica Bailey at Columbia Business School, found that more passionate employees were also more likely to be overconfident….</em> <em>In many work settings, however, overconfidence can lead to detrimental work outcomes, such that passionate and overconfident employees are less likely to seek the feedback and information necessary to succeed. If you are passionate about your work, bear in mind that this may lead to an inflated view of your own abilities and work output. This might make it more important that you seek out feedback from others, and clarify on where you truly stand; otherwise you may believe that your passion propels you, while it only does so in your head.”</em>', '3 Reasons It’s So Hard to “Follow Your Passion', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', '3-reasons-its-so-hard-to-follow-your-passion', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:47:04', '2020-01-13 04:47:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2718', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2719, 1, '2020-01-13 04:47:04', '2020-01-13 04:47:04', 'The most common advice young graduating students at the cusp of choosing their careers, in particular receive is to “Follow Your Passion”. This HBR article shows why following your passion is over-rated or atleast seriously misunderstood. The author cites the following three reasons:\r\nFirst, “<em>passion is not something one finds, but rather, it is something to be developed;”…</em> <em>One common misperception people have about passion is that it is fixed: you either have passion for something or you don’t. The problem with this belief is that it’s limiting, leading us to think of passion as something we discover or happen upon…</em> <em>To better pursue your passion, challenge your assumption that passion is something to be discovered. Focus on actively developing a passion instead. For example, you can craft your job to spend more time exploring the tasks you are more passionate about (or simply those that pique your curiosity) and working with those who inspire you. It also helps to get to know coworkers, what they are passionate about, and how they view their work. This can lead to opportunities to help each other pursue your passions.”</em>\r\nSecond, “<em>it is challenging to pursue your passion, especially as it wanes over time;…</em> <em>One of the most common ways we try to pursue our passion is that we chase what gives us the most joy or is the most fun” </em>But what is fun can change with time and hence that passion can wane. Instead we should see <em>“the pursuit of passion as “focusing on what you care about.” The distinction is subtle but meaningful: focusing on what you love associates passion with what you enjoy and what makes you happy, whereas focusing on what you care about aligns passion with your values and the impact you want to have.”</em>\r\nThird, “<em>passion can also lead us astray, and it is therefore important to recognize its limits…</em> <em>Imagine you’re presenting a project at work that you are passionate about. We find that expressing your passion may only help you if your audience already agrees with what you are presenting. If they are not already on board, your passion for the subject may not be effective in bringing them along. Similarly, if you are an entrepreneur, expressing passion for your idea may help bring investors on board, but expressing passion when discussing the term sheet may not have the same inspiring effect because of who we allow to demonstrate passion…</em> <em>Another study, led by Erica Bailey at Columbia Business School, found that more passionate employees were also more likely to be overconfident….</em> <em>In many work settings, however, overconfidence can lead to detrimental work outcomes, such that passionate and overconfident employees are less likely to seek the feedback and information necessary to succeed. If you are passionate about your work, bear in mind that this may lead to an inflated view of your own abilities and work output. This might make it more important that you seek out feedback from others, and clarify on where you truly stand; otherwise you may believe that your passion propels you, while it only does so in your head.”</em>', '3 Reasons It’s So Hard to “Follow Your Passion', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2718-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:47:04', '2020-01-13 04:47:04', '', 2718, 'https://marcellus.in/2718-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2720, 1, '2020-01-12 04:47:20', '2020-01-12 04:47:20', 'Joshua Brown is yet another good writer from Ritholtz Wealth Management. Here he talks about what he learnt as a trainee bartender in a bartending school he had attended as a student. Whilst it wasn’t exactly a life changing experience, there was one thing he learnt from the bartending sensei that stayed with him: <em>“There are two things a professional bartender never discusses with patrons: Politics and religion.</em>\r\n<em>The way the bartender sensei running the class explained it, there’s no upside. Even if the customer agrees with 95% of your political or religious opinions, the 5% is enough to enrage them.”</em>\r\nNot only is it bad from a business perspective to discuss politics and religion with clients, there is no purpose that is being served from discussing politics and religion - in person and on social media - from doing so. <em>“Are things going so well in any of our lives that we need to look for trouble deliberately? Does anyone ever actually win an argument that’s based on opinions? On a social media site? No one wins. No one changes their mind because of a Twitter exchange or a hashtag war.</em>\r\n<em>So if we know we’re not winning any converts, and that the most likely result of debating these topics is winning new enemies for ourselves, why bother?”</em>\r\nFurthermore, the less one discusses religion and politics with clients or on social media, on the rare occasion that one chooses to pipe up, he/she is bound to get an audience: <em>“One added benefit of adopting the bartender’s rule is that when there really is something that you feel absolutely compelled to speak out about, it carries more weight. “I rarely comment on things like this, but I just have to say…” Make it count.”</em>', 'Bartender School', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bartender-school', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:48:38', '2020-01-13 04:48:38', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2720', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2721, 1, '2020-01-13 04:48:38', '2020-01-13 04:48:38', 'Joshua Brown is yet another good writer from Ritholtz Wealth Management. Here he talks about what he learnt as a trainee bartender in a bartending school he had attended as a student. Whilst it wasn’t exactly a life changing experience, there was one thing he learnt from the bartending sensei that stayed with him: <em>“There are two things a professional bartender never discusses with patrons: Politics and religion.</em>\r\n<em>The way the bartender sensei running the class explained it, there’s no upside. Even if the customer agrees with 95% of your political or religious opinions, the 5% is enough to enrage them.”</em>\r\nNot only is it bad from a business perspective to discuss politics and religion with clients, there is no purpose that is being served from discussing politics and religion - in person and on social media - from doing so. <em>“Are things going so well in any of our lives that we need to look for trouble deliberately? Does anyone ever actually win an argument that’s based on opinions? On a social media site? No one wins. No one changes their mind because of a Twitter exchange or a hashtag war.</em>\r\n<em>So if we know we’re not winning any converts, and that the most likely result of debating these topics is winning new enemies for ourselves, why bother?”</em>\r\nFurthermore, the less one discusses religion and politics with clients or on social media, on the rare occasion that one chooses to pipe up, he/she is bound to get an audience: <em>“One added benefit of adopting the bartender’s rule is that when there really is something that you feel absolutely compelled to speak out about, it carries more weight. “I rarely comment on things like this, but I just have to say…” Make it count.”</em>', 'Bartender School', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2720-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:48:38', '2020-01-13 04:48:38', '', 2720, 'https://marcellus.in/2720-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2722, 1, '2020-01-12 04:48:45', '2020-01-12 04:48:45', 'At Marcellus, we are obsessed about the concept of compounding. Our purpose is to help our clients fulfil their financial goals by delivering healthy long term returns on their savings with our flagship “<em>Consistent Compounders”</em> investment strategy. Compounding returns is driven by compounding in earnings which in turn is driven by the compounded effects of several things the company does to build competitive advantages or moats around itself. In what is Farnam Street’s best piece of 2019, this article extends the concept of compounding to knowledge, citing the example of Warren Buffett whose voracious reading habits, the type of information consumed and the resulting ability to connect the dots and draw meaningful insights have helped him succeed enormously in the world of investing.\r\n<strong>Voracious reading:</strong> <em>“Alice Schroeder, the author of Warren Buffett’s authorized biography The Snowball, tells the story of getting into Buffet’s thinking in this informative talk. In her words,</em>\r\n<em>Starting [at a young age] he’s read everything that he could find about business. The subject that interests him, he’s read newspapers, biographies, trade press. He went over to his grandfather who was a grocer and he read the progressive grocer magazine, and he read articles on how to stock a meat department. He’s gone to visit every company that he could find that was even slightly interesting to him, he went down to visit a barrel maker and spent hours talking about how to make barrels. He went to American Express, and he spent hours talking about that business, he went to GEICO and learned about the insurance business. He has stacks of reports on his desk from the companies he owns, pig stalls, jewelry, boat winches, everything you can imagine. He reads hundreds of annual reports every year from companies that he doesn’t own yet, because he just wants to understand their businesses, and then when the opportunity arises, then he’s ready and he can make a decision. What he’s really done is he’s created this immense vertical filing cabinet in his brain of layers and layers and layers of files of information that he can draw back on now for more than 70 years worth of data.”</em>\r\n<strong>Information with long shelf life:</strong> “<em>A lot of us are on the treadmill of consuming expiring information. Not Buffett. He filled his mental filing cabinet with information that had a long half-life. While most of us focus on consuming information that we won’t care about next month, let alone next year, Buffett focused on knowledge and companies that change very, very slowly or not at all. And because the information he was learning changed slowly he could compound his knowledge over time. And as Schroeder notes, Buffett has been in business for a long time, giving him incredible opportunities to create a cumulative base of knowledge.”</em>\r\n<strong>Matching patterns:</strong> “<em>Buffett insists on doing his own thinking and vacuums up the details. When we don’t think for ourselves it’s easy to put the blame on someone else, to “pass the buck” so to speak. When we consume information that doesn’t expire or expires slowly;  is very detailed; and we spend time thinking about it not passing the buck, we can match patterns. This is how you learn to see what other people are missing. The longer you do this, the more advantage you get.</em>\r\n<em>Most of us use a computer to store information so that we can retrieve it when we need it. We’ve organized our knowledge around a computer. Not Buffett.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest thing he’s done is to learn and create this cumulative base of knowledge in his head. One reason that he doesn’t use a computer is that in a sense, he is one. He also needs a computer to get…he uses it for news. He wants to know what’s going on in the world. So he is on the internet a lot to get news reports, and he’s up late at night seeing what’s going on. He doesn’t use it as a filing cabinet or for computation.</em>\r\n<em>Just like the rest of us, Buffett’s dependent on information and knowledge to make great decisions. Unlike most of us, he has a great memory—perhaps because he’s not trying to outsource his memory or thinking to others.”</em>', 'Compounding Knowledge', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'compounding-knowledge', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:49:57', '2020-01-13 04:49:57', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2722', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2723, 1, '2020-01-13 04:49:57', '2020-01-13 04:49:57', 'At Marcellus, we are obsessed about the concept of compounding. Our purpose is to help our clients fulfil their financial goals by delivering healthy long term returns on their savings with our flagship “<em>Consistent Compounders”</em> investment strategy. Compounding returns is driven by compounding in earnings which in turn is driven by the compounded effects of several things the company does to build competitive advantages or moats around itself. In what is Farnam Street’s best piece of 2019, this article extends the concept of compounding to knowledge, citing the example of Warren Buffett whose voracious reading habits, the type of information consumed and the resulting ability to connect the dots and draw meaningful insights have helped him succeed enormously in the world of investing.\r\n<strong>Voracious reading:</strong> <em>“Alice Schroeder, the author of Warren Buffett’s authorized biography The Snowball, tells the story of getting into Buffet’s thinking in this informative talk. In her words,</em>\r\n<em>Starting [at a young age] he’s read everything that he could find about business. The subject that interests him, he’s read newspapers, biographies, trade press. He went over to his grandfather who was a grocer and he read the progressive grocer magazine, and he read articles on how to stock a meat department. He’s gone to visit every company that he could find that was even slightly interesting to him, he went down to visit a barrel maker and spent hours talking about how to make barrels. He went to American Express, and he spent hours talking about that business, he went to GEICO and learned about the insurance business. He has stacks of reports on his desk from the companies he owns, pig stalls, jewelry, boat winches, everything you can imagine. He reads hundreds of annual reports every year from companies that he doesn’t own yet, because he just wants to understand their businesses, and then when the opportunity arises, then he’s ready and he can make a decision. What he’s really done is he’s created this immense vertical filing cabinet in his brain of layers and layers and layers of files of information that he can draw back on now for more than 70 years worth of data.”</em>\r\n<strong>Information with long shelf life:</strong> “<em>A lot of us are on the treadmill of consuming expiring information. Not Buffett. He filled his mental filing cabinet with information that had a long half-life. While most of us focus on consuming information that we won’t care about next month, let alone next year, Buffett focused on knowledge and companies that change very, very slowly or not at all. And because the information he was learning changed slowly he could compound his knowledge over time. And as Schroeder notes, Buffett has been in business for a long time, giving him incredible opportunities to create a cumulative base of knowledge.”</em>\r\n<strong>Matching patterns:</strong> “<em>Buffett insists on doing his own thinking and vacuums up the details. When we don’t think for ourselves it’s easy to put the blame on someone else, to “pass the buck” so to speak. When we consume information that doesn’t expire or expires slowly;  is very detailed; and we spend time thinking about it not passing the buck, we can match patterns. This is how you learn to see what other people are missing. The longer you do this, the more advantage you get.</em>\r\n<em>Most of us use a computer to store information so that we can retrieve it when we need it. We’ve organized our knowledge around a computer. Not Buffett.</em>\r\n<em>The biggest thing he’s done is to learn and create this cumulative base of knowledge in his head. One reason that he doesn’t use a computer is that in a sense, he is one. He also needs a computer to get…he uses it for news. He wants to know what’s going on in the world. So he is on the internet a lot to get news reports, and he’s up late at night seeing what’s going on. He doesn’t use it as a filing cabinet or for computation.</em>\r\n<em>Just like the rest of us, Buffett’s dependent on information and knowledge to make great decisions. Unlike most of us, he has a great memory—perhaps because he’s not trying to outsource his memory or thinking to others.”</em>', 'Compounding Knowledge', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2722-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:49:57', '2020-01-13 04:49:57', '', 2722, 'https://marcellus.in/2722-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2724, 1, '2020-01-12 04:50:14', '2020-01-12 04:50:14', 'Every winter, the problem of air pollution in Indian cities gets exacerbated with severe consequences on both short-term and long-term health of their residents. Whilst these consequences are bordering on survival issues, a new finding says improving air quality can in fact help societies prosper. This article in the Vox talks about a rumoured gas leak which prompted schools in a Los Angeles area to install air filters actually resulted in increasing test scores meaningfully and sustainably. In a research paper, NYU’s Michael Gilraine shows the results comparing test scores of schools in that area to those outside who did not experience any improvement in air quality. The difference is significant even comparable to the difference made by smaller class sizes.\r\n<em>“An emergency situation that turned out to be mostly a false alarm led a lot of schools in Los Angeles to install air filters, and something strange happened: Test scores went up. By a lot. And the gains were sustained in the subsequent year rather than fading away. That’s what NYU’s Michael Gilraine finds in a new working paper titled “Air Filters, Pollution, and Student Achievement” that looks at the surprising consequences of the Aliso Canyon gas leak in 2015. The impact of the air filters is strikingly large given what a simple change we’re talking about. The school district didn’t reengineer the school buildings or make dramatic education reforms; they just installed $700 commercially available filters that you could plug into any room in the country.</em>\r\n<em>…Strikingly, however, air testing conducted around the time of the installation of the filters shows that the schools didn’t actually have abnormally high levels of the kinds of pollution that are normally associated with natural gas. Methane is lighter than air, and by the time the filters were installed — nearly three months after the leak — the extra pollution caused was all the way up in the sky and not affecting school buildings.</em>\r\n<em>Consequently, the installation of the filters served not to remove extra contamination caused by the leak, but simply to clean up the normal amount of background indoor air pollution present in the Valley. That lets Gilraine estimate the difference in student performance for schools just inside the boundary compared to those just outside. He finds that math scores went up by 0.20 standard deviations and English scores by 0.18 standard deviations, and the results hold up even when you control for “detailed student demographics, including residential ZIP Code fixed effects that help control for a student’s exposure to pollution at home.”</em>\r\n<em>For context, this is comparable in scale to some of the most optimistic studies on the potential benefits of smaller class sizes, with Alan Krueger finding that cutting class size by a third leads to a 0.22 standard deviation improvement in academic performance. Other studies find smaller or even negative effects (because adding teachers means bringing in less experienced or less effective ones), but even accepting the positive findings, it costs much more than $700 per classroom to achieve class size reductions of that scale.”</em>', 'Installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educational benefits', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'installing-air-filters-in-classrooms-has-surprisingly-large-educational-benefits', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:51:47', '2020-01-13 04:51:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2724', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2596, 1, '2019-12-10 08:14:12', '2019-12-10 08:14:12', '<strong>As we complete a year of managing money in India, we celebrate two towering legends of the Indian music industry. Not only did RD Burman and AR Rahman change the way movie music is made in India, there are striking parallels in their careers. Both men were professional musicians by their mid-teens. Both turned away from conventional styles of music composition. </strong><strong>Both were masters of their craft – which was primarily composing music for Indian movies - and yet their range of knowledge extended far beyond their chosen profession. This combination of in-depth specialization in one area alongside a vast body of knowledge is a powerful driver of creativity &amp; original thought.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Time works in a strange way. However, successful you may be, if your success is only a matter of chance or circumstances, not based on real talent, it will not stand the test of time. But if you are really great, you become greater with time. And time makes a bigger and bigger idol of you. And that is what is happening to R.D.Burman. Because time is kind to great people. And R.D.Burman was great.” – </em><strong>Javed Akhtar</strong> in the Foreword to “R.D.Burman: The Man, The Music” by Anirudha Bhattacharjee &amp; Balaji Vittal\r\n\r\n<em>““First you have the prelude and then the music comes, then you have an interlude, followed by a cross-line,” Gulzar says about the conventional film tune. “From the start, songs were written this way. Rahman broke the pattern… the horizon… at what stage the song will return to the refrain, one never knows…Like classical and semi-classical musicians, he elaborates the tune. These elaborations build links and keep unfolding.” – </em><strong>Gulzar on AR Rahman</strong> (source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8d7b3f090f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8d7b3f090f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4yB66gLYIHFWcE1cFdesT10kdEg\">https://scroll.in/article/<wbr />698525/mozart-from-madras-new-<wbr />documentary-celebrates-ar-<wbr />rahman</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>Brief bios of two legendary music directors</strong>\r\nRahul Dev Burman - or Pancham as the Bollywood star of the 1950s &amp; 60s, Ashok Kumar, named him as a toddler - was born in Kolkata in 1939 to a branch of the Tripura royal family. He did not distinguish himself in school but his father, the legendary music director SD Burman, deserves the gratitude of generations of Indian music lovers for beginning his son’s training in Hindustani classical music by the time Pancham was ten years old. The teenaged Pancham was precocious – amongst other songs, he composed <em>‘Sar jo tera chakraya’</em> for Guru Dutt’s icononic move <em>‘Pyasaa’</em> (1957).\r\n\r\nWhen Pancham was 16, his father relocated him to Mumbai and Pancham became an assistant to his famous father. Personal success however continued to elude him even though his friend, the comedian Mehmood, hired Pancham as the music director for <em>‘Chhote Nawab’</em> (1961). Pancham’s first critically acclaimed hit came with <em>‘Padosan’</em> (1968), a movie whose true worth has become more obvious to music lovers with the passage of time. Then, in the years following Padosan, Pancham composed the music for four smash hits whose music towered over everything that was composed in Bollywood in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.\r\n\r\n<em>‘Teesri Manzil’</em> (1966) was Pancham’s entry into the premier league with the full on brass band and hundred piece orchestra of <em>‘O haseena zulfon wali’</em> transforming the Bollywood song &amp; dance number, for once and for all, into a big budget spectacular. In Dev Anand’s <em>‘Hare Rama Hare Krishna’</em> (1971) Pancham memorably brought rock musjc, English lyrics and vocalists trained in Western music to Bollywood with <em>‘Dum maro dum’</em> being the most memorable outcome of this fusion between East and West. In <em>‘Kati Patang’</em> (1971), Pancham’s music resulted in Filmfare awards for superstar Rajesh Khanna, director Shakti Samanta and singer Kishore Kumar. For the next Rajesh Khanna blockbuster <em>‘Amar Prem’</em> (1972) Pancham composed three songs which pay glorious tribute to India’s rich heritage of Hindustani classical music and are regarded by the cognoscenti – playback singers (Kishore Kumar, Hemanta Mukherjee), Classical musicians (Pandit Mallikarjun Mansoor, Pandit Ajoy Chakroborty) and film directors (Shakti Samanta, Hrishikesh Mukherjee) – as the greatest songs composed for the Hindi screen.\r\n\r\nMore hits followed in the 1970s and the early 1980s until younger composers imitating the legend undercut him and left him financially stranded in the late 1980s. RD Burman died of a heart attack in 1994 soon after finishing work on<em> ‘1942: A Love Story’</em>. He was awarded the Filmfare Award posthumously for his work in his last film which itself went on to become a smash hit and launched singer Kumar Sanu’s career.\r\n\r\nBorn in 1969 in Chennai, Allahrakka Rahman’s (AR) father, the music composer RK Shekhar, died when AR was nine years old. By then AR had already become an assistant to his father in the studio. Following his father’s death, AR supported his family by renting out his father’s music equipment. By the time he dropped out of school in his mid-teens, he had already mastered the keyboard, piano, synthesizer, harmonium and guitar. However, he was particularly interested in the synthesizer because it was the \"ideal combination of music and technology\".\r\n\r\nThrough his teenage years, AR made his name in Chennai first as a synthesizer player in movie soundtracks and then as a sought after composer of advertising jingles. His big break came when Mani Ratnam approached him to compose the music for <em>‘Roja’</em> (1992). The movie was one of the first multi-lingual smash hits across India with the freshness of AR’s music being a big driver of the movie’s success. ‘Time’ magazine included ‘Roja’ in the ten best movie soundtracks of all time (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=29f90307fb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D29f90307fb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFKJRJewZgwQk7on0qk1Comwu3HwQ\">http://entertainment.time.com/<wbr />2005/02/12/all-time-100-<wbr />movies/slide/roja/</a>).\r\n\r\nEven as AR’s popularity rocketed in the Tamil movie market, further success in Bollywood came through his consistently fresh and resonant music for <em>‘Bombay’</em> (1995) – another multilingual hit from Mani Ratnam – followed by <em>‘Rangeela’</em> (1995) and then <em>‘Dil Se’</em> (1998). These critically acclaimed and commercially successful movies brought a completely new genre of music to Indian cinema.\r\n\r\nIn the new millennium, whilst AR continued making memorable movie music in India - notable successes being \'\'<em>Guru\'\'(2006)</em>, <em>‘Rang De Basanti’</em> (2006) and <em>‘Jodha Akbar’</em> (2008) - he also expanded his reach and his skillset with ventures that no Indian musician had ever undertaken before.\r\n\r\nIn 2002, AR composed the music for Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Westend and Broadway musical, <em>‘Bombay Dreams’</em>. AR\'s music Danny Boyle’s <em>‘Slumdog Millionaire’</em> (2008) won two Academy Awards (a first for an Asian) and sparked wild celebrations in Chennai. In 2012 AR composed a Punjabi song for the opening ceremony of London Olympics. In 2017, Rahman made his debut as a director and writer for the upcoming virtual reality film <em>‘Le Musk’</em>. AR remains India’s most expensive and most sought after music composer, someone whose name by itself can set the cash register ringing for the film producer.\r\n\r\n<strong>Striking parallels between the two legends</strong>\r\nRD Burman (Pancham) and AR Rahman (AR) completely redefined movie music in their respective eras and although the two men grew up and lived in different cities, the parallels between their careers and working habits is striking. We draw upon two biographies of these music legends – Anirudha Bhattacharjee &amp; Balaji Vittal’s award winning <em>‘R.D.Burman: The Man, The Music’</em> (2011) and Trilok Sharada’s <em>‘Notes of a Dream: The Authorised Biography of A.R.Rahman’</em> (2018):  – to outline their strikingly similar paths to stardom:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deep immersion in music by their mid-teens: </strong>Alongside formal training in music (Pancham from Ustad Ali Akbar Khan in Kolkata and AR from the Berklee School of Music), both men were working as professional musicians in the film industry by their mid-teens. Whilst RD was an assistant to his famous father SD Burman (a role which became ever more important as the Burman senior aged through the 1960s), he was also regarded as the best harmonica player in Mumbai. Most memorably, he played the harmonica in Hemant Kumar’s <em>‘Hai apna dil to awara’</em> in the movie <em>‘Solva Saal’</em> (1958). His father’s untimely demise meant that by the time he was ten years old, AR was the family’s main breadwinner. He alternated between his classes at school and his early career as a sessions recording artist for Tamil movies. If you assume that these composers did a 40 hour week between the ages of 15-20, by the time these men entered their twenties, one can safely say they would have clocked Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hours required for mastery of their chosen profession.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nInterestingly, but not accidentally, both men were highly focused musicians. Pancham repeatedly turned down acting roles in the 1960s and made his intention to become a notable composer in his own right clear to everyone in Mumbai. AR quit school in his mid-teens to focus exclusively on music.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Blazing desire to challenge convention norms: </strong>Pancham consciously and deliberately broke away from the traditional Bollywood form of music. He mixed jazz, rock, bossa nova, calypso, samba and Middle Eastern melodies with Hindustani Classical to create sounds which had never before been heard in Indian cinema. He brought instruments like the electric guitar, the trumpet, the trombone, the conga, the xylophone, the bongo and the vibraphone into mainstream movie music.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nPartly due to the musical education his father had imparted to him, AR brought to Indian movie music a mastery of electronic and synthesizer sounds that simply did not exist in the country in the 1990s. With the aid of these instruments, he proceeded to fuse Hindustani classical, reggae, Western pop &amp; rock\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Restless, curious musicians constantly looking for new sounds: </strong>Before he moved to Mumbai at the age of 16, Pancham already built a body of knowledge of Hindustani Classical, jazz and bossa nova, a form of music which finds its inspiration in the Brazilian samba. He then fused these different types of music to Indianise the bossa nova by stripping it of the complicated chords whilst incorporating the rhythm. As his fame grew, Pancham become even more innovative: <em>“One morning, a household help was rubbing a piece of newspaper against the floor with her foot to remove stains. The act of rubbing at a particular pace resulted in a different kind of sound, which aroused Pancham’s interest. He summoned the household help to continue generating the sound, which he recreated in the studio by running a piece of aluminum foil on a khol….”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nAR’s authorized biography contains even more remarkable stories regarding the composer’s hunger to discover new sounds. When the legendary qawalli singer, Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, came to Mumbai, <em>“AR went to Nusrat’s room at some unearthly hour, knocked on the foor and politely introduced himself…AR said to him ”I want to learn qawalli from you.” And Nusrat just wakes up his musicians and calls them up to his room and they just played all night. Nusrat told Rahman a few things and AR took notes while they were playing.” </em>In fact, in AR’s case his curiosity extends beyond music. <em>“He finds the technicians, the visual effects guys and cinematographers and just keeps talking to them.”</em>\r\n\r\nBoth of these composers were masters of their craft – which was primarily composing music for Indian movies. And yet their range of knowledge extended far beyond their chosen profession . As discussed in our 19<sup>th</sup> August note, this combination of in-depth specialization in one area alongside a vast body of knowledge is a powerful driver of creativity and original thought: see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef466faa36&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Def466faa36%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEV6solWT1eG17zATzG41o2q-CDEw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />bruce-lee-and-the-rise-of-the-<wbr />generalist/</a>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Perfectionists and deep workers: </strong>Both men are known to have worked 12 hours a day to produce their best work. AR’s success means that the studio at his homes in Chennai and Mumbai have world class recording equipment and this allows him to work from 5pm to 5am in the privacy of his residence. No phone calls and no interruptions from visitors are entertained in these 12 hours as the legend takes his mind to places to which the rest of us can only dream of. Sometimes AR takes an entire 12 hour session just to get one note right. Apparently, this was how the sublime opening notes of <em>‘Jagay hai hum’</em> for the film <em>‘Guru’</em> (2007) were composed.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhilst living a more bohemian life than AR, Pancham worked a slightly more conventional 12 hour day from 9am to 9pm in recording studios and in the pre-synthesizer era, he would be surrounded during these twelve hours by an army of musicians, most of whom worked with him for several decades. However, his musical ear was so finely honed that as soon a rehearsal began, even with a 100 piece orchestra, he could spot that, say, the sixth violin in the third row was out of tune.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Collaborators supreme: </strong>In a competitive high stakes commercially charged environment, the ability to win the trust of a diverse group of stakeholders is as important as one’s innate talent. Both music composers befriended and collaborated with a wide variety of people, an essential skill if one is to succeed in the cut throat movie markets of Mumbai and Chennai. Pancham’s deep friendship with  singers (Kishore Kumar, Lata Mangeshkar Asha Bhonsle), with lyricists (Gulzar, Gulshan Bawra, Javed Akhtar), with film stars (Shammi Kapoor, Mehmood, Rajesh Khanna, Amitabh Bachchan) and with directors (Shakti Samanta, Nasir Hussain, Ramesh Sippy, Hrishikesh Mukherjee) placed him firmly at the centre of the Bollywood movie market of the 1970s. Similarly, AR’s longstanding friendships with a diverse group of cutting edge directors like Mani Ratnam, Imtiaz Ali, Danny Boyle, Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra, Shekhar Kapur and Ashutosh Gowariker has meant that he gets the latitude to give full vent to his limitless creativity.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nIf we do what everybody else does, if we read the same books that everybody else does, move around in the same social circles as everybody else and receive the same ‘elite education’ as everybody else, you can guess what will happen to us.\r\n\r\nIf, on the other hand, through a combination of luck, circumstance and hard work, we can take our minds down pathways that others haven’t explored, if we can take the road less travelled, then not only will life be more interesting, we might even achieve results that nobody had ever believed was possible.\r\n\r\nOn the first anniversary of Marcellus Investment Managers managing money, we thank our 1100 clients, our friends across the world and our families for their support. Over the past year, we have had the time of our lives in building this firm which now consists of nearly 30 people spread between Mumbai &amp; Delhi. You can see here how we have done in our first 12 months of managing money in India: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4e65e43d8f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4e65e43d8f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFNqjfcZvoA0RSE8YS21oQ1Qu-OlQ\">https://marcellus.in/<wbr />newsletter/are-consistent-<wbr />compounders-too-big-to-grow/</a>. And you can also listen here to this iPhone X advert from the United States which uses during its entire length the theme music Pancham created in 1980 for the film <em>‘The Burning Train’</em>: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87cb3fafb5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D87cb3fafb5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0ZxdMnd-gpQtx9r5DbK7SC6--Iw\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?<wbr />v=HMS1csJSCbc</a>', 'Celebrating Marcellus with Two Creative Giants', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'celebrating-marcellus-with-two-creative-giants', '', '', '2019-12-11 08:17:42', '2019-12-11 08:17:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2596', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(2597, 1, '2019-12-11 08:16:47', '2019-12-11 08:16:47', '<strong>As we complete a year of managing money in India, we celebrate two towering legends of the Indian music industry. Not only did RD Burman and AR Rahman change the way movie music is made in India, there are striking parallels in their careers. Both men were professional musicians by their mid-teens. Both turned away from conventional styles of music composition. </strong><strong>Both were masters of their craft – which was primarily composing music for Indian movies - and yet their range of knowledge extended far beyond their chosen profession. This combination of in-depth specialization in one area alongside a vast body of knowledge is a powerful driver of creativity &amp; original thought.</strong>\n\n<em>“Time works in a strange way. However, successful you may be, if your success is only a matter of chance or circumstances, not based on real talent, it will not stand the test of time. But if you are really great, you become greater with time. And time makes a bigger and bigger idol of you. And that is what is happening to R.D.Burman. Because time is kind to great people. And R.D.Burman was great.” – </em><strong>Javed Akhtar</strong> in the Foreword to “R.D.Burman: The Man, The Music” by Anirudha Bhattacharjee &amp; Balaji Vittal\n\n<em>““First you have the prelude and then the music comes, then you have an interlude, followed by a cross-line,” Gulzar says about the conventional film tune. “From the start, songs were written this way. Rahman broke the pattern… the horizon… at what stage the song will return to the refrain, one never knows…Like classical and semi-classical musicians, he elaborates the tune. These elaborations build links and keep unfolding.” – </em><strong>Gulzar on AR Rahman</strong> (source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8d7b3f090f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8d7b3f090f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4yB66gLYIHFWcE1cFdesT10kdEg\">https://scroll.in/article/<wbr />698525/mozart-from-madras-new-<wbr />documentary-celebrates-ar-<wbr />rahman</a>)\n\n<strong>Brief bios of two legendary music directors</strong>\nRahul Dev Burman - or Pancham as the Bollywood star of the 1950s &amp; 60s, Ashok Kumar, named him as a toddler - was born in Kolkata in 1939 to a branch of the Tripura royal family. He did not distinguish himself in school but his father, the legendary music director SD Burman, deserves the gratitude of generations of Indian music lovers for beginning his son’s training in Hindustani classical music by the time Pancham was ten years old. The teenaged Pancham was precocious – amongst other songs, he composed <em>‘Sar jo tera chakraya’</em> for Guru Dutt’s icononic move <em>‘Pyasaa’</em> (1957).\n\nWhen Pancham was 16, his father relocated him to Mumbai and Pancham became an assistant to his famous father. Personal success however continued to elude him even though his friend, the comedian Mehmood, hired Pancham as the music director for <em>‘Chhote Nawab’</em> (1961). Pancham’s first critically acclaimed hit came with <em>‘Padosan’</em> (1968), a movie whose true worth has become more obvious to music lovers with the passage of time. Then, in the years following Padosan, Pancham composed the music for four smash hits whose music towered over everything that was composed in Bollywood in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.\n\n<em>‘Teesri Manzil’</em> (1966) was Pancham’s entry into the premier league with the full on brass band and hundred piece orchestra of <em>‘O haseena zulfon wali’</em> transforming the Bollywood song &amp; dance number, for once and for all, into a big budget spectacular. In Dev Anand’s <em>‘Hare Rama Hare Krishna’</em> (1971) Pancham memorably brought rock musjc, English lyrics and vocalists trained in Western music to Bollywood with <em>‘Dum maro dum’</em> being the most memorable outcome of this fusion between East and West. In <em>‘Kati Patang’</em> (1971), Pancham’s music resulted in Filmfare awards for superstar Rajesh Khanna, director Shakti Samanta and singer Kishore Kumar. For the next Rajesh Khanna blockbuster <em>‘Amar Prem’</em> (1972) Pancham composed three songs which pay glorious tribute to India’s rich heritage of Hindustani classical music and are regarded by the cognoscenti – playback singers (Kishore Kumar, Hemanta Mukherjee), Classical musicians (Pandit Mallikarjun Mansoor, Pandit Ajoy Chakroborty) and film directors (Shakti Samanta, Hrishikesh Mukherjee) – as the greatest songs composed for the Hindi screen.\n\nMore hits followed in the 1970s and the early 1980s until younger composers imitating the legend undercut him and left him financially stranded in the late 1980s. RD Burman died of a heart attack in 1994 soon after finishing work on<em> ‘1942: A Love Story’</em>. He was awarded the Filmfare Award posthumously for his work in his last film which itself went on to become a smash hit and launched singer Kumar Sanu’s career.\n\nBorn in 1969 in Chennai, Allahrakka Rahman’s (AR) father, the music composer RK Shekhar, died when AR was nine years old. By then AR had already become an assistant to his father in the studio. Following his father’s death, AR supported his family by renting out his father’s music equipment. By the time he dropped out of school in his mid-teens, he had already mastered the keyboard, piano, synthesizer, harmonium and guitar. However, he was particularly interested in the synthesizer because it was the \"ideal combination of music and technology\".\n\nThrough his teenage years, AR made his name in Chennai first as a synthesizer player in movie soundtracks and then as a sought after composer of advertising jingles. His big break came when Mani Ratnam approached him to compose the music for <em>‘Roja’</em> (1992). The movie was one of the first multi-lingual smash hits across India with the freshness of AR’s music being a big driver of the movie’s success. ‘Time’ magazine included ‘Roja’ in the ten best movie soundtracks of all time (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=29f90307fb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D29f90307fb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFKJRJewZgwQk7on0qk1Comwu3HwQ\">http://entertainment.time.com/<wbr />2005/02/12/all-time-100-<wbr />movies/slide/roja/</a>).\n\nEven as AR’s popularity rocketed in the Tamil movie market, further success in Bollywood came through his consistently fresh and resonant music for <em>‘Bombay’</em> (1995) – another multilingual hit from Mani Ratnam – followed by <em>‘Rangeela’</em> (1995) and then <em>‘Dil Se’</em> (1998). These critically acclaimed and commercially successful movies brought a completely new genre of music to Indian cinema.\n\nIn the new millennium, whilst AR continued making memorable movie music in India - notable successes being <em>‘Guru(2006)</em>, <em>‘Rang De Basanti’</em> (2006) and <em>‘Jodha Akbar’</em> (2008) - he also expanded his reach and his skillset with ventures that no Indian musician had ever undertaken before.\n\nIn 2002, AR composed the music for Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Westend and Broadway musical, <em>‘Bombay Dreams’</em>. AR\'s music Danny Boyle’s <em>‘Slumdog Millionaire’</em> (2008) won two Academy Awards (a first for an Asian) and sparked wild celebrations in Chennai. In 2012 AR composed a Punjabi song for the opening ceremony of London Olympics. In 2017, Rahman made his debut as a director and writer for the upcoming virtual reality film <em>‘Le Musk’</em>. AR remains India’s most expensive and most sought after music composer, someone whose name by itself can set the cash register ringing for the film producer.\n\n<strong>Striking parallels between the two legends</strong>\nRD Burman (Pancham) and AR Rahman (AR) completely redefined movie music in their respective eras and although the two men grew up and lived in different cities, the parallels between their careers and working habits is striking. We draw upon two biographies of these music legends – Anirudha Bhattacharjee &amp; Balaji Vittal’s award winning <em>‘R.D.Burman: The Man, The Music’</em> (2011) and Trilok Sharada’s <em>‘Notes of a Dream: The Authorised Biography of A.R.Rahman’</em> (2018):  – to outline their strikingly similar paths to stardom:\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Deep immersion in music by their mid-teens: </strong>Alongside formal training in music (Pancham from Ustad Ali Akbar Khan in Kolkata and AR from the Berklee School of Music), both men were working as professional musicians in the film industry by their mid-teens. Whilst RD was an assistant to his famous father SD Burman (a role which became ever more important as the Burman senior aged through the 1960s), he was also regarded as the best harmonica player in Mumbai. Most memorably, he played the harmonica in Hemant Kumar’s <em>‘Hai apna dil to awara’</em> in the movie <em>‘Solva Saal’</em> (1958). His father’s untimely demise meant that by the time he was ten years old, AR was the family’s main breadwinner. He alternated between his classes at school and his early career as a sessions recording artist for Tamil movies. If you assume that these composers did a 40 hour week between the ages of 15-20, by the time these men entered their twenties, one can safely say they would have clocked Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hours required for mastery of their chosen profession.</li>\n</ul>\nInterestingly, but not accidentally, both men were highly focused musicians. Pancham repeatedly turned down acting roles in the 1960s and made his intention to become a notable composer in his own right clear to everyone in Mumbai. AR quit school in his mid-teens to focus exclusively on music.\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Blazing desire to challenge convention norms: </strong>Pancham consciously and deliberately broke away from the traditional Bollywood form of music. He mixed jazz, rock, bossa nova, calypso, samba and Middle Eastern melodies with Hindustani Classical to create sounds which had never before been heard in Indian cinema. He brought instruments like the electric guitar, the trumpet, the trombone, the conga, the xylophone, the bongo and the vibraphone into mainstream movie music.</li>\n</ul>\nPartly due to the musical education his father had imparted to him, AR brought to Indian movie music a mastery of electronic and synthesizer sounds that simply did not exist in the country in the 1990s. With the aid of these instruments, he proceeded to fuse Hindustani classical, reggae, Western pop &amp; rock\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Restless, curious musicians constantly looking for new sounds: </strong>Before he moved to Mumbai at the age of 16, Pancham already built a body of knowledge of Hindustani Classical, jazz and bossa nova, a form of music which finds its inspiration in the Brazilian samba. He then fused these different types of music to Indianise the bossa nova by stripping it of the complicated chords whilst incorporating the rhythm. As his fame grew, Pancham become even more innovative: <em>“One morning, a household help was rubbing a piece of newspaper against the floor with her foot to remove stains. The act of rubbing at a particular pace resulted in a different kind of sound, which aroused Pancham’s interest. He summoned the household help to continue generating the sound, which he recreated in the studio by running a piece of aluminum foil on a khol….”</em></li>\n</ul>\nAR’s authorized biography contains even more remarkable stories regarding the composer’s hunger to discover new sounds. When the legendary qawalli singer, Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, came to Mumbai, <em>“AR went to Nusrat’s room at some unearthly hour, knocked on the foor and politely introduced himself…AR said to him ”I want to learn qawalli from you.” And Nusrat just wakes up his musicians and calls them up to his room and they just played all night. Nusrat told Rahman a few things and AR took notes while they were playing.” </em>In fact, in AR’s case his curiosity extends beyond music. <em>“He finds the technicians, the visual effects guys and cinematographers and just keeps talking to them.”</em>\n\nBoth of these composers were masters of their craft – which was primarily composing music for Indian movies. And yet their range of knowledge extended far beyond their chosen profession . As discussed in our 19<sup>th</sup> August note, this combination of in-depth specialization in one area alongside a vast body of knowledge is a powerful driver of creativity and original thought: see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef466faa36&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Def466faa36%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEV6solWT1eG17zATzG41o2q-CDEw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />bruce-lee-and-the-rise-of-the-<wbr />generalist/</a>\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Perfectionists and deep workers: </strong>Both men are known to have worked 12 hours a day to produce their best work. AR’s success means that the studio at his homes in Chennai and Mumbai have world class recording equipment and this allows him to work from 5pm to 5am in the privacy of his residence. No phone calls and no interruptions from visitors are entertained in these 12 hours as the legend takes his mind to places to which the rest of us can only dream of. Sometimes AR takes an entire 12 hour session just to get one note right. Apparently, this was how the sublime opening notes of <em>‘Jagay hai hum’</em> for the film <em>‘Guru’</em> (2007) were composed.</li>\n</ul>\nWhilst living a more bohemian life than AR, Pancham worked a slightly more conventional 12 hour day from 9am to 9pm in recording studios and in the pre-synthesizer era, he would be surrounded during these twelve hours by an army of musicians, most of whom worked with him for several decades. However, his musical ear was so finely honed that as soon a rehearsal began, even with a 100 piece orchestra, he could spot that, say, the sixth violin in the third row was out of tune.\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Collaborators supreme: </strong>In a competitive high stakes commercially charged environment, the ability to win the trust of a diverse group of stakeholders is as important as one’s innate talent. Both music composers befriended and collaborated with a wide variety of people, an essential skill if one is to succeed in the cut throat movie markets of Mumbai and Chennai. Pancham’s deep friendship with  singers (Kishore Kumar, Lata Mangeshkar Asha Bhonsle), with lyricists (Gulzar, Gulshan Bawra, Javed Akhtar), with film stars (Shammi Kapoor, Mehmood, Rajesh Khanna, Amitabh Bachchan) and with directors (Shakti Samanta, Nasir Hussain, Ramesh Sippy, Hrishikesh Mukherjee) placed him firmly at the centre of the Bollywood movie market of the 1970s. Similarly, AR’s longstanding friendships with a diverse group of cutting edge directors like Mani Ratnam, Imtiaz Ali, Danny Boyle, Rakeysh Omprakash Mehra, Shekhar Kapur and Ashutosh Gowariker has meant that he gets the latitude to give full vent to his limitless creativity.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\nIf we do what everybody else does, if we read the same books that everybody else does, move around in the same social circles as everybody else and receive the same ‘elite education’ as everybody else, you can guess what will happen to us.\n\nIf, on the other hand, through a combination of luck, circumstance and hard work, we can take our minds down pathways that others haven’t explored, if we can take the road less travelled, then not only will life be more interesting, we might even achieve results that nobody had ever believed was possible.\n\nOn the first anniversary of Marcellus Investment Managers managing money, we thank our 1100 clients, our friends across the world and our families for their support. Over the past year, we have had the time of our lives in building this firm which now consists of nearly 30 people spread between Mumbai &amp; Delhi. You can see here how we have done in our first 12 months of managing money in India: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4e65e43d8f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4e65e43d8f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFNqjfcZvoA0RSE8YS21oQ1Qu-OlQ\">https://marcellus.in/<wbr />newsletter/are-consistent-<wbr />compounders-too-big-to-grow/</a>. And you can also listen here to this iPhone X advert from the United States which uses during its entire length the theme music Pancham created in 1980 for the film <em>‘The Burning Train’</em>: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87cb3fafb5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D87cb3fafb5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576126320414000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG0ZxdMnd-gpQtx9r5DbK7SC6--Iw\">https://www.youtube.com/watch?<wbr />v=HMS1csJSCbc</a>', 'Celebrating Marcellus with Two Creative Giants', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2596-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-12-11 08:16:47', '2019-12-11 08:16:47', '', 2596, 'https://marcellus.in/2596-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2599, 1, '2019-12-16 04:28:56', '2019-12-16 04:28:56', 'In the run upto the next US presidential elections, it is inevitable that the topic of taxing the rich will be front and centre of the debate with candidates such as Elizabeth Warren actually putting out a clear plan – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6314662516&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6314662516%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfqE69FJc4q6F2ESn3UOrJYCRAuA\">The Ultra-millionnaire tax</a>. The topic touches upon the role of the wealthy and big corporates in attacking inequality.\r\n<em>“…Under Ronald Reagan, the top marginal tax rates were slashed from 70 percent to 50 percent. And the top rates have fallen further over time. As the richest accumulated more wealth, as unions lost power and wages stagnated, the nation\'s wealth disparity has only grown. Today the country\'s three richest billionaires hold the same wealth as more than half the nation\'s population. As the collective wealth of the world\'s poorest 3.8 billion people fell by 11 percent in 2018, billionaire fortunes increased by 12 percent, according to Oxfam. Consider Benioff: Between 2017 and 2018, his net worth rose by $2.47 million a day, according to Business Insider. Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve data revealed that tens of millions of Americans would be unable to cover a $400 emergency expense.</em>\r\nMarc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and CEO of Salesforce.com is known for being vocal on how business needs to go beyond catering to shareholders – what he calls compassionate capitalism and has indeed demonstrated it through action. This piece in the Wired talks about how Benioff has used his position in industry and not just wealth to become an influencer of policy notably Prop C, the San Francisco City’s plan to address the growing problem of homelessness in the city.\r\n<em>“The Homelessness Gross Receipts Tax Ordinance, or Proposition C, sought to stem the city\'s spiraling homelessness problem by raising taxes by an average of half a percent on big companies—tech ones, most prominently. Doing so would bring in up to an estimated $300 million a year for various initiatives, from new beds in shelters to expanded mental health services. In the way certain votes do, Prop. C struck many as a referendum on good versus evil: not just a means of addressing San Francisco\'s housing emergency but a shot across the bow of the booming industry that was partly responsible for it, and perhaps across capitalism-as-usual.</em>\r\n<em>Enter Marc Benioff, founder and co-CEO of Salesforce, the city\'s largest employer. Declaring that “our city is in a crisis,” he threw his full support behind the measure that promised to take his company\'s money. He publicly outflanked the city\'s ostensibly liberal mayor, London Breed—who opposed it on grounds that the measure didn\'t allow for enough accountability—and pledged upward of $2 million to the Prop. C campaign. But it was on Twitter that Benioff truly went to town. “As SF\'s largest employer we recognize we are part of the solution,” he declared on October 9.</em>\r\n<em>Chief among Benioff\'s distinguishing characteristics, though, is his incessant public munificence, emphasis on incessant, emphasis on public.</em>\r\n<em>Scarcely a month goes by without another grant, another ribbon-cutting, another broadside against complacent CEOs. He and Lynne gave $250 million to build UCSF Benioff Children\'s Hospitals in San Francisco and Oakland. Between 2017 and 2019, Salesforce and the Salesforce Foundation gave away about $130 million, and the Benioffs personally donated nearly $200 million in roughly the same time period. Via large individual and company donations, a philanthropy-centric business model, and a general irrepressibility on social issues, Benioff has set his sights over the years on homelessness, oceans, public schools, local hospitals, LGBTQ+ rights, the gender pay gap, and the country\'s gun crisis. Forbes referred to him as “San Francisco\'s Giant of Generosity.” To The Silicon Review he\'s “the intrepid tech visionary who pioneered a groundbreaking philanthropic model.” Pando went so far as to call him “a people\'s billionaire.”</em>\r\n<em>Integral to Benioff\'s reputation for goodness is the insistent badness regularly displayed by his ultrarich brethren. Benioff does not offer the Russians a handy platform for derailing our democracy or erode civil discourse 280 characters at a time. He doesn\'t use his wealth to undermine public education or fund climate change denial. He does not accuse British rescue divers of pedophilia. At a moment when his plutocrat peers seem increasingly hell-bent on mucking everything up, Benioff has carved out a different brand altogether: the good billionaire”</em>\r\nThe author shows nothing so radical comes without its fair share of controversies and criticisms. Chris Colin brings out the fact Salesforce\'s own federal tax rates are abysmally low suggesting why Benioff may not be practising exactly what he preaches.\r\n\"<em>Prop. C taxes certain sectors differently than others, making it more burdensome to, say, a fintech company like Square, which would have to pay twice as much tax as Salesforce, despite bringing in a fraction of its revenue. But more important is the part Benioff never mentions: the zero dollars his company paid in federal income tax that year, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. </em><em>“This is a company that had $7.8 billion in gross profit in 2018 and didn\'t pay a dime in federal income tax,” Frank Clemente, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness, told me, before running through the assorted mechanisms used by the country\'s corporations to avoid contributions to the federal treasury: patents held by foreign subsidiaries. The so-called stock options loophole, which allows companies to lower their taxable income by paying executives in stock options. Offshore accounts. (As of 2017, Salesforce had 14 tax haven subsidiaries, in Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Singapore, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Ireland, according to a report from the advocacy group US PIRG and ITEP.)\"</em>', 'The gospel of wealth according to Marc Benioff', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2598-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:28:56', '2019-12-16 04:28:56', '', 2598, 'https://marcellus.in/2598-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2600, 1, '2019-12-15 04:29:00', '2019-12-15 04:29:00', 'The mobile phone will likely go down in history as the technology which had the biggest impact on people’s lives and progressively so. Whilst its ability to connect people far away is often seen as the gamechanger for human civilisation, this article highlights one aspect where the smartphone has actually disconnected people. The piece in The Atlantic highlights the role of the landline as a family phone – a shared space among family members which quietly went a long way in building bonds.\r\n<em>“The shared family phone served as an anchor for home,” says Luke Fernandez, a visiting computer-science professor at Weber State University and a co-author of Bored, Lonely, Angry, Stupid: Feelings About Technology, From the Telegraph to Twitter. “Home is where you could be reached, and where you needed to go to pick up your messages.” With smartphones, Fernandez says, “we have gained mobility and privacy. But the value of the home has been diminished, as has its capacity to guide and monitor family behavior and perhaps bind families more closely together.”</em>\r\n<em>My tween will never know the sound of me calling her name from another room after the phone rings. She\'ll never sit on our kitchen floor, refrigerator humming in the background, twisting a cord around her finger while talking to her best friend.</em> <em>I\'ll get it, He\'s not here right now, and It\'s for you are all phrases that are on their way out of the modern domestic vernacular. According to the federal government, the majority of American homes now use cellphones exclusively. “We don\'t even have a landline anymore,” people began to say proudly as the new millennium progressed. But this came with a quieter, secondary loss—the loss of the shared social space of the family landline.</em>\r\n<em>And with the spread of cordless phones in the 1980s, calls became more private. But even then, when making a call to another household’s landline, you never knew who would pick up. For those of us who grew up with a shared family phone, calling friends usually meant first speaking with their parents, and answering calls meant speaking with any number of our parents’ acquaintances on a regular basis. With practice, I was capable of addressing everyone from a telemarketer to my mother\'s boss to my older brother\'s friend—not to mention any relative who happened to call. Beyond developing conversational skills, the family phone asked its users to be patient and participate in one another’s lives.</em>\r\n<em>… the calls, texts, and emails that pass through cellphones (and computers and tablets) can now be kept private from family members. “It keeps everybody separate in their own little techno-cocoons,” says Larry Rosen, a retired psychology professor at California State University at Dominguez Hills and a co-author of The Distracted Mind: Ancient Brains in a High-Tech World. Whereas early landlines united family members gathered in a single room, cellphones now silo them.</em>\r\n<em>A shared family phone meant that kids overheard some of their parents’ conversations, providing a window into their relationships, but today, children frequently see a parent silently staring at a screen, fingers tapping, occasionally furrowing a brow or chuckling.”</em>', 'How the Loss of the Landline Is Changing Family Life', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-loss-of-the-landline-is-changing-family-life', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:30:25', '2019-12-16 04:30:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2600', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2601, 1, '2019-12-16 04:30:25', '2019-12-16 04:30:25', 'The mobile phone will likely go down in history as the technology which had the biggest impact on people’s lives and progressively so. Whilst its ability to connect people far away is often seen as the gamechanger for human civilisation, this article highlights one aspect where the smartphone has actually disconnected people. The piece in The Atlantic highlights the role of the landline as a family phone – a shared space among family members which quietly went a long way in building bonds.\r\n<em>“The shared family phone served as an anchor for home,” says Luke Fernandez, a visiting computer-science professor at Weber State University and a co-author of Bored, Lonely, Angry, Stupid: Feelings About Technology, From the Telegraph to Twitter. “Home is where you could be reached, and where you needed to go to pick up your messages.” With smartphones, Fernandez says, “we have gained mobility and privacy. But the value of the home has been diminished, as has its capacity to guide and monitor family behavior and perhaps bind families more closely together.”</em>\r\n<em>My tween will never know the sound of me calling her name from another room after the phone rings. She\'ll never sit on our kitchen floor, refrigerator humming in the background, twisting a cord around her finger while talking to her best friend.</em> <em>I\'ll get it, He\'s not here right now, and It\'s for you are all phrases that are on their way out of the modern domestic vernacular. According to the federal government, the majority of American homes now use cellphones exclusively. “We don\'t even have a landline anymore,” people began to say proudly as the new millennium progressed. But this came with a quieter, secondary loss—the loss of the shared social space of the family landline.</em>\r\n<em>And with the spread of cordless phones in the 1980s, calls became more private. But even then, when making a call to another household’s landline, you never knew who would pick up. For those of us who grew up with a shared family phone, calling friends usually meant first speaking with their parents, and answering calls meant speaking with any number of our parents’ acquaintances on a regular basis. With practice, I was capable of addressing everyone from a telemarketer to my mother\'s boss to my older brother\'s friend—not to mention any relative who happened to call. Beyond developing conversational skills, the family phone asked its users to be patient and participate in one another’s lives.</em>\r\n<em>… the calls, texts, and emails that pass through cellphones (and computers and tablets) can now be kept private from family members. “It keeps everybody separate in their own little techno-cocoons,” says Larry Rosen, a retired psychology professor at California State University at Dominguez Hills and a co-author of The Distracted Mind: Ancient Brains in a High-Tech World. Whereas early landlines united family members gathered in a single room, cellphones now silo them.</em>\r\n<em>A shared family phone meant that kids overheard some of their parents’ conversations, providing a window into their relationships, but today, children frequently see a parent silently staring at a screen, fingers tapping, occasionally furrowing a brow or chuckling.”</em>', 'How the Loss of the Landline Is Changing Family Life', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2600-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:30:25', '2019-12-16 04:30:25', '', 2600, 'https://marcellus.in/2600-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2602, 1, '2019-12-15 04:30:35', '2019-12-15 04:30:35', '\"People don\'t buy what you do, they buy WHY you do it\" says Simon Sinek in his hugely popular TedTalk - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa69a33e97&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daa69a33e97%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwIPUoxaexz8reodvXH8XIeA4omA\">“Start with Why?”</a> Companies across the world are increasingly attaching a purpose to their business. Indeed, there is an official certification for companies that go beyond profit motive – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1df2e92233&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1df2e92233%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3akCosniXDDF1CHVMnrXIk3_QCA\">B Corp</a> is a private certification issued by B Lab.\r\n<em>“The movement was founded in the US in 2006 by three ex-business people who wanted to connect mission-driven companies. The first companies got certified in 2007, changing their legal designation and committing to work toward criteria in five segments: governance, workers, community, customers, and the environment.</em>\r\n<em>..To become a B Corp, companies have to score a minimum of 80 points out of a possible 200, and re-certify every three years. The points they score are publicly available. Roshan certified in 2012, making it a fairly early adopter. Its most recent score is 159.3, beating US outdoor-wear brand Patagonia (151.5 points) which is often cited as something of a gold-standard when it comes to corporations driven by purpose.</em>\r\n<em>…There are now about 2,500 B Corps globally. Many are small businesses, but increasingly big companies like Danone, The Body Shop, Athleta, and The Guardian Media Group have certified or begun to do so through their subsidiaries.”</em>\r\nThis article talks about the only company in Afghanistan with this certification – Roshan, a telecom operator.\r\n<em>“When Karim arrived, a staggering 99% of Afghans didn’t have access to a phone. There was no mobile industry. America’s war on terror, which started in 2001 in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on the US that year, and is still going on, had destroyed much of the landline infrastructure. By 2002, the Taliban regime had been toppled, and American-supported state-building had begun…Now, 90% of Afghans have access to phones.</em>\r\n<em>The ability for people across the country to talk and message with each other, and with people abroad, has been transformative….But, as anyone who has witnessed the mobile revolution of the past 20 years will know, phones aren’t just for phone calls. In 2008, Roshan was the first operator to launch M-Paisa, a mobile payments platform developed by Vodafone (and known elsewhere as M-Pesa), which made it possible for people in remote areas—for example, frontline police—to get paid.</em>\r\n<em>The company employed women, many of whom were working for the first time in their lives. Under Taliban rule, women rarely had paying jobs outside the family home or land. Karim explains that in Roshan’s early days, employing women often meant picking them up, dropping them home, providing meals, and explaining again and again the value of a second family income, and the increasing social acceptability of women earning one.</em>\r\n<em>Roshan cleared land mines to build phone towers powered by solar energy, and rebuilt them after they were regularly blown up by Taliban insurgents. They built an app, Malomat, through which rural farmers could get current market prices—via voice, if they weren’t able to read—letting them demand fair payment from middle men.</em>\r\n<em>They built playgrounds. The 32 playgrounds, purposely constructed in “very Taliban areas,” Karim says, “became like outdoor community centers on a Friday, which is the Sabbath day… Because when kids of different ethnic backgrounds play together, our view was that they would not fight and kill each other in the future.”</em>\r\n<em>…the B Corp questionnaire awards points for diverse hiring. In Afghanistan, diverse hiring means actively seeking to hire women as well as men, against social norms. It also means having a sensitivity to regional, religious, and cultural differences, while at the same time avoiding the creation of distinct ethnic teams.</em>\r\n<em>“We were very careful about putting the right ethnic groups in the right geographies,” Shainoor says of the challenge of employing a mix of Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks, Pashtuns, and people from other backgrounds, all of whom had been recently involved in a civil war. “But [we were] also mixing those groups, because what we wanted to do was build a healthy future.”</em>', 'The extraordinary story of the only B Corp in Afghanistan', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-extraordinary-story-of-the-only-b-corp-in-afghanistan', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2602', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2603, 1, '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '\"People don\'t buy what you do, they buy WHY you do it\" says Simon Sinek in his hugely popular TedTalk - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aa69a33e97&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daa69a33e97%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEwIPUoxaexz8reodvXH8XIeA4omA\">“Start with Why?”</a> Companies across the world are increasingly attaching a purpose to their business. Indeed, there is an official certification for companies that go beyond profit motive – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1df2e92233&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1df2e92233%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3akCosniXDDF1CHVMnrXIk3_QCA\">B Corp</a> is a private certification issued by B Lab.\r\n<em>“The movement was founded in the US in 2006 by three ex-business people who wanted to connect mission-driven companies. The first companies got certified in 2007, changing their legal designation and committing to work toward criteria in five segments: governance, workers, community, customers, and the environment.</em>\r\n<em>..To become a B Corp, companies have to score a minimum of 80 points out of a possible 200, and re-certify every three years. The points they score are publicly available. Roshan certified in 2012, making it a fairly early adopter. Its most recent score is 159.3, beating US outdoor-wear brand Patagonia (151.5 points) which is often cited as something of a gold-standard when it comes to corporations driven by purpose.</em>\r\n<em>…There are now about 2,500 B Corps globally. Many are small businesses, but increasingly big companies like Danone, The Body Shop, Athleta, and The Guardian Media Group have certified or begun to do so through their subsidiaries.”</em>\r\nThis article talks about the only company in Afghanistan with this certification – Roshan, a telecom operator.\r\n<em>“When Karim arrived, a staggering 99% of Afghans didn’t have access to a phone. There was no mobile industry. America’s war on terror, which started in 2001 in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks on the US that year, and is still going on, had destroyed much of the landline infrastructure. By 2002, the Taliban regime had been toppled, and American-supported state-building had begun…Now, 90% of Afghans have access to phones.</em>\r\n<em>The ability for people across the country to talk and message with each other, and with people abroad, has been transformative….But, as anyone who has witnessed the mobile revolution of the past 20 years will know, phones aren’t just for phone calls. In 2008, Roshan was the first operator to launch M-Paisa, a mobile payments platform developed by Vodafone (and known elsewhere as M-Pesa), which made it possible for people in remote areas—for example, frontline police—to get paid.</em>\r\n<em>The company employed women, many of whom were working for the first time in their lives. Under Taliban rule, women rarely had paying jobs outside the family home or land. Karim explains that in Roshan’s early days, employing women often meant picking them up, dropping them home, providing meals, and explaining again and again the value of a second family income, and the increasing social acceptability of women earning one.</em>\r\n<em>Roshan cleared land mines to build phone towers powered by solar energy, and rebuilt them after they were regularly blown up by Taliban insurgents. They built an app, Malomat, through which rural farmers could get current market prices—via voice, if they weren’t able to read—letting them demand fair payment from middle men.</em>\r\n<em>They built playgrounds. The 32 playgrounds, purposely constructed in “very Taliban areas,” Karim says, “became like outdoor community centers on a Friday, which is the Sabbath day… Because when kids of different ethnic backgrounds play together, our view was that they would not fight and kill each other in the future.”</em>\r\n<em>…the B Corp questionnaire awards points for diverse hiring. In Afghanistan, diverse hiring means actively seeking to hire women as well as men, against social norms. It also means having a sensitivity to regional, religious, and cultural differences, while at the same time avoiding the creation of distinct ethnic teams.</em>\r\n<em>“We were very careful about putting the right ethnic groups in the right geographies,” Shainoor says of the challenge of employing a mix of Uzbeks, Hazaras, Tajiks, Pashtuns, and people from other backgrounds, all of whom had been recently involved in a civil war. “But [we were] also mixing those groups, because what we wanted to do was build a healthy future.”</em>', 'The extraordinary story of the only B Corp in Afghanistan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2602-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '2019-12-16 04:32:48', '', 2602, 'https://marcellus.in/2602-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2604, 1, '2019-12-15 04:33:03', '2019-12-15 04:33:03', 'As a fund manager, Ray Dalio – the founder of Bridgewater Associates - has attained celebrity status and is arguably next only to Warren Buffett in the celebrity stakes. His book, “Principles”, <em>“his 600-page manifesto for success that has sold 2.2 million copies since its publication in September 2017. The tome, an unlikely crossover hit that’s been praised by celebrities from Bill Gates to Sean “Diddy” Combs, was recently turned into an illustrated version for kids.”</em>\r\nThe authors point out that the investment guru’s fame is at odds with his recent performance: <em>“Following peak returns of 45% in 2010 and 25% in 2011, the fund’s performance has struggled. Dalio’s flagship has returned an annualized 3.8% since the start of 2012, even with a 15% gain last year…</em>\r\n<em>Of course, Bridgewater isn’t alone in trailing the markets for much of this decade. In recent years, macro managers have found it hard to make big profits trading in their usual fare of government bonds, currencies, commodities and stock indexes. In their heyday, these funds regularly produced double-digit gains. Bridgewater has racked up an annualized 11.4% since its start in 1991. (Paul Tudor Jones and Louis Bacon, who both started in the 1980s, have done even better.)”</em>\r\nThe authors point out that indifferent investment performance hasn’t impacted flows into Bridgewater’s funds. Why not, you might ask. <em>“​The difference between Dalio and his peers is investor response to the recent performance. In many cases, clients have fled. Perhaps the hardest hit has been Brevan Howard Asset Management, where assets peaked at more than $40 billion in 2013. It now manages about $7.5 billion. Bacon, who founded Moore Capital Management, said last month he was stepping back from his duties in part because of low returns.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Pure Alpha II is closed to new capital and has a waiting list of about $5 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Investors credit Dalio’s reputation, along with savvy marketing and first-rate customer service…“Bridgewater has just become such an institutional name,” said John Culbertson, president and chief investment officer of Context Capital Partners, which invests in startup managers. “It’s very hard to get fired for allocating capital to Bridgewater because of who they are and their reputation.””</em>', 'Ray Dalio Is More Famous Than Ever and Delivering Subpar Returns', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ray-dalio-is-more-famous-than-ever-and-delivering-subpar-returns', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:34:31', '2019-12-16 04:34:31', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2604', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2605, 1, '2019-12-16 04:34:31', '2019-12-16 04:34:31', 'As a fund manager, Ray Dalio – the founder of Bridgewater Associates - has attained celebrity status and is arguably next only to Warren Buffett in the celebrity stakes. His book, “Principles”, <em>“his 600-page manifesto for success that has sold 2.2 million copies since its publication in September 2017. The tome, an unlikely crossover hit that’s been praised by celebrities from Bill Gates to Sean “Diddy” Combs, was recently turned into an illustrated version for kids.”</em>\r\nThe authors point out that the investment guru’s fame is at odds with his recent performance: <em>“Following peak returns of 45% in 2010 and 25% in 2011, the fund’s performance has struggled. Dalio’s flagship has returned an annualized 3.8% since the start of 2012, even with a 15% gain last year…</em>\r\n<em>Of course, Bridgewater isn’t alone in trailing the markets for much of this decade. In recent years, macro managers have found it hard to make big profits trading in their usual fare of government bonds, currencies, commodities and stock indexes. In their heyday, these funds regularly produced double-digit gains. Bridgewater has racked up an annualized 11.4% since its start in 1991. (Paul Tudor Jones and Louis Bacon, who both started in the 1980s, have done even better.)”</em>\r\nThe authors point out that indifferent investment performance hasn’t impacted flows into Bridgewater’s funds. Why not, you might ask. <em>“​The difference between Dalio and his peers is investor response to the recent performance. In many cases, clients have fled. Perhaps the hardest hit has been Brevan Howard Asset Management, where assets peaked at more than $40 billion in 2013. It now manages about $7.5 billion. Bacon, who founded Moore Capital Management, said last month he was stepping back from his duties in part because of low returns.</em>\r\n<em>By contrast, Pure Alpha II is closed to new capital and has a waiting list of about $5 billion, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Investors credit Dalio’s reputation, along with savvy marketing and first-rate customer service…“Bridgewater has just become such an institutional name,” said John Culbertson, president and chief investment officer of Context Capital Partners, which invests in startup managers. “It’s very hard to get fired for allocating capital to Bridgewater because of who they are and their reputation.””</em>', 'Ray Dalio Is More Famous Than Ever and Delivering Subpar Returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2604-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:34:31', '2019-12-16 04:34:31', '', 2604, 'https://marcellus.in/2604-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2606, 1, '2019-12-15 04:34:39', '2019-12-15 04:34:39', '<div>At Marcellus, a big part of our job is forensic analysis of Indian annual reports. Hence we are always interested to hear about advances in this field elsewhere in the world. In this article, Julie Segal begins by saying that <em>“Harvard Business School and MIT’s Sloan School of Management claim to have found the first empirical evidence that public companies are using information buried in footnotes to manipulate earnings.”</em>\r\nThe methodology used in this Harvard-MIT research piece – titled <em>“Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence”</em> seems to be as follows: <em>“Professors Charles Wang of HBS, and Eric So and Ethan Rouen of the Sloan School, used data from research firm New Constructs to analyze disclosures in regulatory filings, including information buried in footnotes and in the “management discussion &amp; analysis” section. The data includes revenues, expenses, gains, and losses that reflect the hidden adjustments, according to the professors…The paper analyzes 19 years of data on company earnings that are adjusted to add back non-core net expenses related to acquisitions, currency devaluations or revaluations, discontinued operations, legal or regulatory events, pension adjustments, restructuring, gains/losses that companies disclose as ‘other,’ and other unclassified gains and losses that are considered non-operating.”</em>\r\nThe main conclusions of Harvard-MIT research piece appear to be:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>“…public companies frequently disclose non-operating income-statement items and that those adjustments significantly altered the true nature of the economics of the business…these adjustments are increasing over time.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“…the number of income-related line items that management claims to be non-operating has grown over the last 20 years. Between 1998 and 2017, there was a 34 percent increase in the average number of adjustments.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The study also found that for every dollar of adjustments that increase earnings, only 55 cents are incorporated in Wall Street research earnings and other traditional analyst reports. “The selectivity of adjustments in street earnings appears to be in part driven by manager bias: firms that meet or just beat consensus EPS [earnings per share] forecasts [are] more likely to include income-increasing adjustments or exclude income-decreasing adjustments in their street earnings numbers,” wrote the professors in the study.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>““The rapid rise in earnings distortion since 2015 means that an increasing amount of corporate income is coming from unusual or one-time gains, which is not apparent to investors analyzing press releases or income statements. Corporate managers hide the one-time nature of these gains by only disclosing them in the fine print,” according to the scorecard. New Constructs found that earnings distortion is positive for the first time since 2007. In addition, it’s the highest since 2000.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Beware Footnote Mischief', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'beware-footnote-mischief', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2606', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2607, 1, '2019-12-16 04:36:47', '2019-12-16 04:36:47', '<div>At Marcellus, a big part of our job is forensic analysis of Indian annual reports. Hence we are always interested to hear about advances in this field elsewhere in the world. In this article, Julie Segal begins by saying that <em>“Harvard Business School and MIT’s Sloan School of Management claim to have found the first empirical evidence that public companies are using information buried in footnotes to manipulate earnings.”</em>\r\nThe methodology used in this Harvard-MIT research piece – titled <em>“Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence”</em> seems to be as follows: <em>“Professors Charles Wang of HBS, and Eric So and Ethan Rouen of the Sloan School, used data from research firm New Constructs to analyze disclosures in regulatory filings, including information buried in footnotes and in the “management discussion &amp; analysis” section. The data includes revenues, expenses, gains, and losses that reflect the hidden adjustments, according to the professors…The paper analyzes 19 years of data on company earnings that are adjusted to add back non-core net expenses related to acquisitions, currency devaluations or revaluations, discontinued operations, legal or regulatory events, pension adjustments, restructuring, gains/losses that companies disclose as ‘other,’ and other unclassified gains and losses that are considered non-operating.”</em>\r\nThe main conclusions of Harvard-MIT research piece appear to be:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>“…public companies frequently disclose non-operating income-statement items and that those adjustments significantly altered the true nature of the economics of the business…these adjustments are increasing over time.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“…the number of income-related line items that management claims to be non-operating has grown over the last 20 years. Between 1998 and 2017, there was a 34 percent increase in the average number of adjustments.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The study also found that for every dollar of adjustments that increase earnings, only 55 cents are incorporated in Wall Street research earnings and other traditional analyst reports. “The selectivity of adjustments in street earnings appears to be in part driven by manager bias: firms that meet or just beat consensus EPS [earnings per share] forecasts [are] more likely to include income-increasing adjustments or exclude income-decreasing adjustments in their street earnings numbers,” wrote the professors in the study.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>““The rapid rise in earnings distortion since 2015 means that an increasing amount of corporate income is coming from unusual or one-time gains, which is not apparent to investors analyzing press releases or income statements. Corporate managers hide the one-time nature of these gains by only disclosing them in the fine print,” according to the scorecard. New Constructs found that earnings distortion is positive for the first time since 2007. In addition, it’s the highest since 2000.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Beware Footnote Mischief', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2606-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:36:47', '2019-12-16 04:36:47', '', 2606, 'https://marcellus.in/2606-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2608, 1, '2019-12-15 04:40:49', '2019-12-15 04:40:49', 'Irrespective of our credentials, all of us tend to get approached for advice every now and then, from friends, family and co-workers. As advice seekers, we often find ourselves having a go-to person for advice. Why do we pick certain people over others? What do these people do better when it comes to giving advice? How can we do better as advice providers? Anna Goldfarb of The New York Times puts together a neat set of tips for all of us to learn.\r\n<strong><em>Make sure you’re actually being asked to give counsel.</em></strong><em> It’s easy to confuse being audience to a venting session with being asked to weigh in. Sometimes people just want to feel heard.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Be clear on the advice-seeker’s goals.</em></strong><em> Ask what outcome the advice-seeker hopes to see so your ideas align with the person’s desires.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Consider your qualifications.</em></strong><em> People often go to those close to them for advice, even if family members and friends aren’t always in the best position to effectively assist</em>\r\n<strong><em>Be friendly.</em></strong><em> Words have power. Words can heal. A recent study found that doctors who simply offer assurance can help alleviate their patients’ symptoms. It’s essential to start the advice-giving conversation with this same reassuring tone.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Share experience. </em></strong><em>People tend to resist when advice is preachy, Ms. Marshall said. Saying, “I’ve been there and here’s what I did,” makes people more receptive. </em>\r\n<strong><em>Identify takeaways (and give an out). </em></strong><em> After discussing a problem and suggesting how to handle it, Ms. Marshall asks her clients what tidbit resonated with them the most. Then she gives them permission to disregard any suggestions she made that weren’t a good fit.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Agree on next steps. </em></strong><em>Lastly, ask what kind of continued support is needed (if any) and what efforts should be avoided. Would checking in motivate the person, or would it feel overbearing?</em>', 'How to Give People Advice They’ll Be Delighted to Take', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-give-people-advice-theyll-be-delighted-to-take', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:42:14', '2019-12-16 04:42:14', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2608', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2609, 1, '2019-12-16 04:42:14', '2019-12-16 04:42:14', 'Irrespective of our credentials, all of us tend to get approached for advice every now and then, from friends, family and co-workers. As advice seekers, we often find ourselves having a go-to person for advice. Why do we pick certain people over others? What do these people do better when it comes to giving advice? How can we do better as advice providers? Anna Goldfarb of The New York Times puts together a neat set of tips for all of us to learn.\r\n<strong><em>Make sure you’re actually being asked to give counsel.</em></strong><em> It’s easy to confuse being audience to a venting session with being asked to weigh in. Sometimes people just want to feel heard.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Be clear on the advice-seeker’s goals.</em></strong><em> Ask what outcome the advice-seeker hopes to see so your ideas align with the person’s desires.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Consider your qualifications.</em></strong><em> People often go to those close to them for advice, even if family members and friends aren’t always in the best position to effectively assist</em>\r\n<strong><em>Be friendly.</em></strong><em> Words have power. Words can heal. A recent study found that doctors who simply offer assurance can help alleviate their patients’ symptoms. It’s essential to start the advice-giving conversation with this same reassuring tone.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Share experience. </em></strong><em>People tend to resist when advice is preachy, Ms. Marshall said. Saying, “I’ve been there and here’s what I did,” makes people more receptive. </em>\r\n<strong><em>Identify takeaways (and give an out). </em></strong><em> After discussing a problem and suggesting how to handle it, Ms. Marshall asks her clients what tidbit resonated with them the most. Then she gives them permission to disregard any suggestions she made that weren’t a good fit.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Agree on next steps. </em></strong><em>Lastly, ask what kind of continued support is needed (if any) and what efforts should be avoided. Would checking in motivate the person, or would it feel overbearing?</em>', 'How to Give People Advice They’ll Be Delighted to Take', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2608-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:42:14', '2019-12-16 04:42:14', '', 2608, 'https://marcellus.in/2608-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2610, 1, '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '<div>At Marcellus, a big part of our job is forensic analysis of Indian annual reports. Hence we are always interested to hear about advances in this field elsewhere in the world. In this article, Julie Segal begins by saying that <em>“Harvard Business School and MIT’s Sloan School of Management claim to have found the first empirical evidence that public companies are using information buried in footnotes to manipulate earnings.”</em>\r\nThe methodology used in this Harvard-MIT research piece – titled <em>“Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence”</em> seems to be as follows: <em>“Professors Charles Wang of HBS, and Eric So and Ethan Rouen of the Sloan School, used data from research firm New Constructs to analyze disclosures in regulatory filings, including information buried in footnotes and in the “management discussion &amp; analysis” section. The data includes revenues, expenses, gains, and losses that reflect the hidden adjustments, according to the professors…The paper analyzes 19 years of data on company earnings that are adjusted to add back non-core net expenses related to acquisitions, currency devaluations or revaluations, discontinued operations, legal or regulatory events, pension adjustments, restructuring, gains/losses that companies disclose as ‘other,’ and other unclassified gains and losses that are considered non-operating.”</em>\r\nThe main conclusions of Harvard-MIT research piece appear to be:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>“…public companies frequently disclose non-operating income-statement items and that those adjustments significantly altered the true nature of the economics of the business…these adjustments are increasing over time.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“…the number of income-related line items that management claims to be non-operating has grown over the last 20 years. Between 1998 and 2017, there was a 34 percent increase in the average number of adjustments.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The study also found that for every dollar of adjustments that increase earnings, only 55 cents are incorporated in Wall Street research earnings and other traditional analyst reports. “The selectivity of adjustments in street earnings appears to be in part driven by manager bias: firms that meet or just beat consensus EPS [earnings per share] forecasts [are] more likely to include income-increasing adjustments or exclude income-decreasing adjustments in their street earnings numbers,” wrote the professors in the study.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>““The rapid rise in earnings distortion since 2015 means that an increasing amount of corporate income is coming from unusual or one-time gains, which is not apparent to investors analyzing press releases or income statements. Corporate managers hide the one-time nature of these gains by only disclosing them in the fine print,” according to the scorecard. New Constructs found that earnings distortion is positive for the first time since 2007. In addition, it’s the highest since 2000.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'Beware Footnote Mischief', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2606-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '2019-12-16 04:45:45', '', 2606, 'https://marcellus.in/2606-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2611, 1, '2019-12-16 04:48:43', '2019-12-16 04:48:43', 'In the run upto the next US presidential elections, it is inevitable that the topic of taxing the rich will be front and centre of the debate with candidates such as Elizabeth Warren actually putting out a clear plan – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6314662516&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6314662516%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576554524965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHfqE69FJc4q6F2ESn3UOrJYCRAuA\">The Ultra-millionnaire tax</a>. The topic touches upon the role of the wealthy and big corporates in attacking inequality.\r\n<em>“…Under Ronald Reagan, the top marginal tax rates were slashed from 70 percent to 50 percent. And the top rates have fallen further over time. As the richest accumulated more wealth, as unions lost power and wages stagnated, the nation\'s wealth disparity has only grown. Today the country\'s three richest billionaires hold the same wealth as more than half the nation\'s population. As the collective wealth of the world\'s poorest 3.8 billion people fell by 11 percent in 2018, billionaire fortunes increased by 12 percent, according to Oxfam. Consider Benioff: Between 2017 and 2018, his net worth rose by $2.47 million a day, according to Business Insider. Meanwhile, recent Federal Reserve data revealed that tens of millions of Americans would be unable to cover a $400 emergency expense.</em>\r\nMarc Benioff, the iconoclastic founder and CEO of Salesforce.com is known for being vocal on how business needs to go beyond catering to shareholders – what he calls compassionate capitalism and has indeed demonstrated it through action. This piece in the Wired talks about how Benioff has used his position in industry and not just wealth to become an influencer of policy notably Prop C, the San Francisco City’s plan to address the growing problem of homelessness in the city.\r\n<em>“The Homelessness Gross Receipts Tax Ordinance, or Proposition C, sought to stem the city\'s spiraling homelessness problem by raising taxes by an average of half a percent on big companies—tech ones, most prominently. Doing so would bring in up to an estimated $300 million a year for various initiatives, from new beds in shelters to expanded mental health services. In the way certain votes do, Prop. C struck many as a referendum on good versus evil: not just a means of addressing San Francisco\'s housing emergency but a shot across the bow of the booming industry that was partly responsible for it, and perhaps across capitalism-as-usual.</em>\r\n<em>Enter Marc Benioff, founder and co-CEO of Salesforce, the city\'s largest employer. Declaring that “our city is in a crisis,” he threw his full support behind the measure that promised to take his company\'s money. He publicly outflanked the city\'s ostensibly liberal mayor, London Breed—who opposed it on grounds that the measure didn\'t allow for enough accountability—and pledged upward of $2 million to the Prop. C campaign. But it was on Twitter that Benioff truly went to town. “As SF\'s largest employer we recognize we are part of the solution,” he declared on October 9.</em>\r\n<em>Chief among Benioff\'s distinguishing characteristics, though, is his incessant public munificence, emphasis on incessant, emphasis on public.</em>\r\n<em>Scarcely a month goes by without another grant, another ribbon-cutting, another broadside against complacent CEOs. He and Lynne gave $250 million to build UCSF Benioff Children\'s Hospitals in San Francisco and Oakland. Between 2017 and 2019, Salesforce and the Salesforce Foundation gave away about $130 million, and the Benioffs personally donated nearly $200 million in roughly the same time period. Via large individual and company donations, a philanthropy-centric business model, and a general irrepressibility on social issues, Benioff has set his sights over the years on homelessness, oceans, public schools, local hospitals, LGBTQ+ rights, the gender pay gap, and the country\'s gun crisis. Forbes referred to him as “San Francisco\'s Giant of Generosity.” To The Silicon Review he\'s “the intrepid tech visionary who pioneered a groundbreaking philanthropic model.” Pando went so far as to call him “a people\'s billionaire.”</em>\r\n<em>Integral to Benioff\'s reputation for goodness is the insistent badness regularly displayed by his ultrarich brethren. Benioff does not offer the Russians a handy platform for derailing our democracy or erode civil discourse 280 characters at a time. He doesn\'t use his wealth to undermine public education or fund climate change denial. He does not accuse British rescue divers of pedophilia. At a moment when his plutocrat peers seem increasingly hell-bent on mucking everything up, Benioff has carved out a different brand altogether: the good billionaire”</em>\r\nThe author shows nothing so radical comes without its fair share of controversies and criticisms. Chris Colin brings out the fact Salesforce\'s own federal tax rates are abysmally low suggesting why Benioff may not be practising exactly what he preaches.\r\n\"<em>Prop. C taxes certain sectors differently than others, making it more burdensome to, say, a fintech company like Square, which would have to pay twice as much tax as Salesforce, despite bringing in a fraction of its revenue. But more important is the part Benioff never mentions: the zero dollars his company paid in federal income tax that year, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. </em><em>“This is a company that had $7.8 billion in gross profit in 2018 and didn\'t pay a dime in federal income tax,” Frank Clemente, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness, told me, before running through the assorted mechanisms used by the country\'s corporations to avoid contributions to the federal treasury: patents held by foreign subsidiaries. The so-called stock options loophole, which allows companies to lower their taxable income by paying executives in stock options. Offshore accounts. (As of 2017, Salesforce had 14 tax haven subsidiaries, in Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Singapore, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Ireland, according to a report from the advocacy group US PIRG and ITEP.)\"</em>', 'The gospel of wealth according to Marc Benioff', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2598-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-16 04:48:43', '2019-12-16 04:48:43', '', 2598, 'https://marcellus.in/2598-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2612, 1, '2019-12-18 04:18:32', '2019-12-18 04:18:32', '<div><em><strong>At first glance, software development and investing seem to be poles apart. But we find a common and interesting thread in the process that investment managers and software developers follow.</strong></em>\r\n\r\nThe first public release of the Android operating system (OS) for mobile phones was in 2008. The most recent version is its sixteenth, meaning an upgrade to the OS has averaged three times every two years! The iPhone, currently in its thirteenth year, has seen major upgrades to its iOS every single year since launch. In fact, most software products now undergo frequent updates and upgrades. Contrast this with the nostalgic era of desktops, where the Windows OS would see a new version every 5 years or so. And where upgrading the OS was a ritual, requiring the help of an IT support specialist. Now the OS and the apps on your phone get updated while you sleep!\r\n\r\nFrequent updates, or continuous iteration and improvement, is an essential feature of modern software development. Testing the iterations, getting customer response and incorporating the feedback in the next round of iterations is a process increasingly followed by software developers, who call this the ‘Agile’ methodology. The pervasiveness of Agile can be gauged from the fact that in the 250-odd page 2019 annual report of one of India’s leading IT services companies’, the word finds a mention over 100 times. Product developers, especially in tech start-ups, have their own derivative concept termed Minimum Viable Product (MVP) – an early version of the product that lets you get the best customer validation with the lowest effort/cost. You start small, and once sure of the product fit to the customer’s wants, commit more resources (capital, human) to keep building it further and better. Swiggy, for example, started in just 1 neighbourhood in Bangalore, with 25 restaurant partners and 6 delivery executives. Once the model was proven, it’s taken them just 5 years (and piles of cash!) to get to where they are today.\r\n\r\nWe routinely see the agile method at work in investment management too. The sensible (and that is why the obvious and usual) approach to investing is to undertake thorough research on a stock/business and convince yourself if it is worth committing money to. How much time to spend on the research is a function of one’s own investing style and more crucially, the fund’s mandate. The manager of a close-ended fund with an initial lock-in can, and probably will, spend weeks on a company before buying the stock. However, a relative return fund manager, expected to be a top quartile performer every quarter, will not have the same luxury. In either case, it is a practical difficulty to get a grip on all moving parts of a business, especially as an outsider.\r\n\r\nWhat the ‘agile’ fund manager then does, is evaluate whatever information she has on hand, assess its ‘minimum viability’ and price the risk of the unavailable or unknown bits, before making a move. The ‘MVP’ is then launched by committing a small proportion of the fund to the new stock. This is followed by ongoing research, the results of which determine the strength of the manager’s conviction in the business. This conviction is then expressed in the position sizing of the stock in the overall portfolio – commit a larger proportion as the conviction rises. If one observes carefully, most successful active managers follow ‘agile’ investing in some form. In fact, when you are building something complex, where more variables are at play than what the mind can fathom, it makes sense to build it gradually. This way, the risk of making catastrophic mistakes is mitigated.\r\n\r\nWhat is critical in this process is the ongoing research, and needless to say, it is critical irrespective of the time spent in the initial analysis. A small holding hardly adds value to the overall portfolio and therefore, conviction building assumes significant importance if a stock were to have a meaningful contribution to portfolio returns. In one of our portfolios at Marcellus, even after having spent a considerable amount of time on initial research, we’ve increased the weight on a stock by as much as 30%, after results of subsequent efforts bolstered our conviction in the quality of the business and its deepening moats.\r\n\r\nOne pitfall to avoid while undertaking ongoing research is the dilution of focus, from tracking structural changes in the competitive position of the business, to forecasting and monitoring earnings. Although earnings are reflective of competitive advantages, the frequency of result announcements subconsciously makes us miss the woods for the trees. How much time should one spend in tracking raw material prices to forecast the quarterly profitability of a business as accurately as possible? Instead, all that time could be better spent in identifying the factors that can improve the business’ pricing power, making the cost of raw materials nearly redundant – the company passes on cost increases to customers and retains decreases for itself.\r\n\r\nThe biggest mental hurdle to ongoing research is the stock price performance. A rising stock price immediately after building an ‘MVP’ position could be purely a stroke of luck. But this can give a false sense of conviction. In turn, this leads to complacency in continuing to dig deeper into the business. And committing more funds to the stock without adequate research could set the portfolio up for trouble in the future. At the same time, inadequate research will not convince one of greater value in a stock even after the recent price movement.\r\n\r\nWhere the gradualist approach to investing diverges from agile software development is that in the former you are dealing with a ‘noisy’ system whereas the latter is a predictable system. In noisy systems, it is harder for the system builder to know whether she’s made a serious error or whether noise has polluted the system. This is what arguably makes investing much harder and more interesting than software development.\r\n\r\nHow then, can an investor deal with noise? One way is to distance herself from it – TVs in the research offices, Bloomberg terminals on desks, WhatsApp messages, and other tools are constantly bombarding the fund manager with information, much of which is really noise. Second is to be patient. When it comes to making investing decisions, the more patient an investor is, the less likely it is that she is responding to noise.\r\n\r\nSo, next time you meet your software engineer friend, do explore the commonalities in the way you work.</div>\r\n<div>\r\n<em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n</div>\r\n<div>To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1eb842c9b1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576813908706000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGeBIJ6UbnblmBNCr1vSAhT1o8i_Q\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'Parallels between investing and software development', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'parallels-between-investing-and-software-development', '', '', '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?page_id=2612', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(2613, 1, '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '<div><em><strong>At first glance, software development and investing seem to be poles apart. But we find a common and interesting thread in the process that investment managers and software developers follow.</strong></em>\r\n\r\nThe first public release of the Android operating system (OS) for mobile phones was in 2008. The most recent version is its sixteenth, meaning an upgrade to the OS has averaged three times every two years! The iPhone, currently in its thirteenth year, has seen major upgrades to its iOS every single year since launch. In fact, most software products now undergo frequent updates and upgrades. Contrast this with the nostalgic era of desktops, where the Windows OS would see a new version every 5 years or so. And where upgrading the OS was a ritual, requiring the help of an IT support specialist. Now the OS and the apps on your phone get updated while you sleep!\r\n\r\nFrequent updates, or continuous iteration and improvement, is an essential feature of modern software development. Testing the iterations, getting customer response and incorporating the feedback in the next round of iterations is a process increasingly followed by software developers, who call this the ‘Agile’ methodology. The pervasiveness of Agile can be gauged from the fact that in the 250-odd page 2019 annual report of one of India’s leading IT services companies’, the word finds a mention over 100 times. Product developers, especially in tech start-ups, have their own derivative concept termed Minimum Viable Product (MVP) – an early version of the product that lets you get the best customer validation with the lowest effort/cost. You start small, and once sure of the product fit to the customer’s wants, commit more resources (capital, human) to keep building it further and better. Swiggy, for example, started in just 1 neighbourhood in Bangalore, with 25 restaurant partners and 6 delivery executives. Once the model was proven, it’s taken them just 5 years (and piles of cash!) to get to where they are today.\r\n\r\nWe routinely see the agile method at work in investment management too. The sensible (and that is why the obvious and usual) approach to investing is to undertake thorough research on a stock/business and convince yourself if it is worth committing money to. How much time to spend on the research is a function of one’s own investing style and more crucially, the fund’s mandate. The manager of a close-ended fund with an initial lock-in can, and probably will, spend weeks on a company before buying the stock. However, a relative return fund manager, expected to be a top quartile performer every quarter, will not have the same luxury. In either case, it is a practical difficulty to get a grip on all moving parts of a business, especially as an outsider.\r\n\r\nWhat the ‘agile’ fund manager then does, is evaluate whatever information she has on hand, assess its ‘minimum viability’ and price the risk of the unavailable or unknown bits, before making a move. The ‘MVP’ is then launched by committing a small proportion of the fund to the new stock. This is followed by ongoing research, the results of which determine the strength of the manager’s conviction in the business. This conviction is then expressed in the position sizing of the stock in the overall portfolio – commit a larger proportion as the conviction rises. If one observes carefully, most successful active managers follow ‘agile’ investing in some form. In fact, when you are building something complex, where more variables are at play than what the mind can fathom, it makes sense to build it gradually. This way, the risk of making catastrophic mistakes is mitigated.\r\n\r\nWhat is critical in this process is the ongoing research, and needless to say, it is critical irrespective of the time spent in the initial analysis. A small holding hardly adds value to the overall portfolio and therefore, conviction building assumes significant importance if a stock were to have a meaningful contribution to portfolio returns. In one of our portfolios at Marcellus, even after having spent a considerable amount of time on initial research, we’ve increased the weight on a stock by as much as 30%, after results of subsequent efforts bolstered our conviction in the quality of the business and its deepening moats.\r\n\r\nOne pitfall to avoid while undertaking ongoing research is the dilution of focus, from tracking structural changes in the competitive position of the business, to forecasting and monitoring earnings. Although earnings are reflective of competitive advantages, the frequency of result announcements subconsciously makes us miss the woods for the trees. How much time should one spend in tracking raw material prices to forecast the quarterly profitability of a business as accurately as possible? Instead, all that time could be better spent in identifying the factors that can improve the business’ pricing power, making the cost of raw materials nearly redundant – the company passes on cost increases to customers and retains decreases for itself.\r\n\r\nThe biggest mental hurdle to ongoing research is the stock price performance. A rising stock price immediately after building an ‘MVP’ position could be purely a stroke of luck. But this can give a false sense of conviction. In turn, this leads to complacency in continuing to dig deeper into the business. And committing more funds to the stock without adequate research could set the portfolio up for trouble in the future. At the same time, inadequate research will not convince one of greater value in a stock even after the recent price movement.\r\n\r\nWhere the gradualist approach to investing diverges from agile software development is that in the former you are dealing with a ‘noisy’ system whereas the latter is a predictable system. In noisy systems, it is harder for the system builder to know whether she’s made a serious error or whether noise has polluted the system. This is what arguably makes investing much harder and more interesting than software development.\r\n\r\nHow then, can an investor deal with noise? One way is to distance herself from it – TVs in the research offices, Bloomberg terminals on desks, WhatsApp messages, and other tools are constantly bombarding the fund manager with information, much of which is really noise. Second is to be patient. When it comes to making investing decisions, the more patient an investor is, the less likely it is that she is responding to noise.\r\n\r\nSo, next time you meet your software engineer friend, do explore the commonalities in the way you work.</div>\r\n<div>\r\n<em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n</div>\r\n<div>To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1eb842c9b1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576813908706000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGeBIJ6UbnblmBNCr1vSAhT1o8i_Q\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'Parallels between investing and software development', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2612-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '2019-12-19 04:19:35', '', 2612, 'https://marcellus.in/2612-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2614, 1, '2019-12-18 04:20:14', '2019-12-18 04:20:14', '<div>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>At first glance, software development and investing seem to be poles apart. But we find a common and interesting thread in the process that investment managers and software developers follow.</strong></em>\r\n\r\nThe first public release of the Android operating system (OS) for mobile phones was in 2008. The most recent version is its sixteenth, meaning an upgrade to the OS has averaged three times every two years! The iPhone, currently in its thirteenth year, has seen major upgrades to its iOS every single year since launch. In fact, most software products now undergo frequent updates and upgrades. Contrast this with the nostalgic era of desktops, where the Windows OS would see a new version every 5 years or so. And where upgrading the OS was a ritual, requiring the help of an IT support specialist. Now the OS and the apps on your phone get updated while you sleep!\r\n\r\nFrequent updates, or continuous iteration and improvement, is an essential feature of modern software development. Testing the iterations, getting customer response and incorporating the feedback in the next round of iterations is a process increasingly followed by software developers, who call this the ‘Agile’ methodology. The pervasiveness of Agile can be gauged from the fact that in the 250-odd page 2019 annual report of one of India’s leading IT services companies’, the word finds a mention over 100 times. Product developers, especially in tech start-ups, have their own derivative concept termed Minimum Viable Product (MVP) – an early version of the product that lets you get the best customer validation with the lowest effort/cost. You start small, and once sure of the product fit to the customer’s wants, commit more resources (capital, human) to keep building it further and better. Swiggy, for example, started in just 1 neighbourhood in Bangalore, with 25 restaurant partners and 6 delivery executives. Once the model was proven, it’s taken them just 5 years (and piles of cash!) to get to where they are today.\r\n\r\nWe routinely see the agile method at work in investment management too. The sensible (and that is why the obvious and usual) approach to investing is to undertake thorough research on a stock/business and convince yourself if it is worth committing money to. How much time to spend on the research is a function of one’s own investing style and more crucially, the fund’s mandate. The manager of a close-ended fund with an initial lock-in can, and probably will, spend weeks on a company before buying the stock. However, a relative return fund manager, expected to be a top quartile performer every quarter, will not have the same luxury. In either case, it is a practical difficulty to get a grip on all moving parts of a business, especially as an outsider.\r\n\r\nWhat the ‘agile’ fund manager then does, is evaluate whatever information she has on hand, assess its ‘minimum viability’ and price the risk of the unavailable or unknown bits, before making a move. The ‘MVP’ is then launched by committing a small proportion of the fund to the new stock. This is followed by ongoing research, the results of which determine the strength of the manager’s conviction in the business. This conviction is then expressed in the position sizing of the stock in the overall portfolio – commit a larger proportion as the conviction rises. If one observes carefully, most successful active managers follow ‘agile’ investing in some form. In fact, when you are building something complex, where more variables are at play than what the mind can fathom, it makes sense to build it gradually. This way, the risk of making catastrophic mistakes is mitigated.\r\n\r\nWhat is critical in this process is the ongoing research, and needless to say, it is critical irrespective of the time spent in the initial analysis. A small holding hardly adds value to the overall portfolio and therefore, conviction building assumes significant importance if a stock were to have a meaningful contribution to portfolio returns. In one of our portfolios at Marcellus, even after having spent a considerable amount of time on initial research, we’ve increased the weight on a stock by as much as 30%, after results of subsequent efforts bolstered our conviction in the quality of the business and its deepening moats.\r\n\r\nOne pitfall to avoid while undertaking ongoing research is the dilution of focus, from tracking structural changes in the competitive position of the business, to forecasting and monitoring earnings. Although earnings are reflective of competitive advantages, the frequency of result announcements subconsciously makes us miss the woods for the trees. How much time should one spend in tracking raw material prices to forecast the quarterly profitability of a business as accurately as possible? Instead, all that time could be better spent in identifying the factors that can improve the business’ pricing power, making the cost of raw materials nearly redundant – the company passes on cost increases to customers and retains decreases for itself.\r\n\r\nThe biggest mental hurdle to ongoing research is the stock price performance. A rising stock price immediately after building an ‘MVP’ position could be purely a stroke of luck. But this can give a false sense of conviction. In turn, this leads to complacency in continuing to dig deeper into the business. And committing more funds to the stock without adequate research could set the portfolio up for trouble in the future. At the same time, inadequate research will not convince one of greater value in a stock even after the recent price movement.\r\n\r\nWhere the gradualist approach to investing diverges from agile software development is that in the former you are dealing with a ‘noisy’ system whereas the latter is a predictable system. In noisy systems, it is harder for the system builder to know whether she’s made a serious error or whether noise has polluted the system. This is what arguably makes investing much harder and more interesting than software development.\r\n\r\nHow then, can an investor deal with noise? One way is to distance herself from it – TVs in the research offices, Bloomberg terminals on desks, WhatsApp messages, and other tools are constantly bombarding the fund manager with information, much of which is really noise. Second is to be patient. When it comes to making investing decisions, the more patient an investor is, the less likely it is that she is responding to noise.\r\n\r\nSo, next time you meet your software engineer friend, do explore the commonalities in the way you work.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n<div><em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em></div>\r\n<div>To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1eb842c9b1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576813908706000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGeBIJ6UbnblmBNCr1vSAhT1o8i_Q\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'Parallels between investing and software development', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', '2614', '', '', '2019-12-19 04:21:08', '2019-12-19 04:21:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2614', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2632, 1, '2019-12-29 14:37:50', '2019-12-29 14:37:50', 'When the economist, Thomas Phillipon, moved to America in 1999, he found a country where high quality products were available at “dazzlingly cheap” prices. <em>“But over the past two decades, Mr Philippon writes in “The Great Reversal”, this paradise has been lost. Europeans now enjoy cheap cross-continent flights, high-street banking, and phone and internet services; Americans are often at the mercy of indifferent corporate giants.”</em>\r\nWhy have American consumers ended up getting a raw deal over the past decade? <em>“Much that has happened to the American economy since the 1990s has not been to the typical worker’s advantage. Growth in output, wages and productivity has slowed. Inequality has risen, as have the market share and profitability of the most dominant firms. Economics journals are packed with papers on these trends, many of which argue that the dominance of big firms bears some blame for other ills. Between 1987 and 2016 the share of employment accounted for by firms with over 5,000 employees rose from 28% to 34%. Between 1997 and 2012, this newspaper reported in 2016, the average share of revenues accounted for by the top four firms in each of 900 economic sectors grew from 26% to 32%.”</em>\r\nDepending on what their political persuasions are, two opposing camps of economists are taking divergent views on the rise of mega corporations in America. In the red corner so to speak – the corner in which Mr Phillipon sits, economists argue that <em>“domestic competition has been weakened by lax antitrust enforcement, anticompetitive practices and regulatory changes friendly to powerful firms.”</em>\r\nIn the blue corner, economists say <em>“that concentration is rising because of the success of superstar firms—highly innovative and productive companies that have shoved aside unfit competitors.”</em>\r\nTo the extent that these trends being seen in America are to a large extent also being replicated in India, it is essential that we get a grip on the underlying drivers of these trends. Which corner is correct – red or blue?\r\n<em>“If concentration is caused by ultra-productive firms outcompeting weaker rivals, then investment ought to rise as those firms scale up to exploit their competitive edge. Investment, however, has been disappointing across the American economy. In the 1990s a statistic called Tobin’s q (a measure of a firm’s market value relative to the cost of replacing its assets, named after an economist, James Tobin) closely tracked rates of net investment. A high Tobin’s q indicates that future profits are likely to be high relative to the cost of expanding production. That suggests leading firms should scale up or see a flood of investment by competitors seeking to divert part of that profit stream. In this millennium, however, investment has lagged behind what one would expect, given the level of Tobin’s q across the economy. A finer-grained analysis shows that the most concentrated sectors account for nearly all the investment shortfall.”</em> So it would appear that the reds’ argument has a lot going for it.\r\nThe red argument seems even stronger when you consider the evidence (or lack thereof) of superstar firms being drivers of productivity: <em>“If concentration is mainly caused by the triumph of superstar firms, it should be rising. Here the data are murkier. The authors of “The fall of the labour share and the rise of superstar firms”, a forthcoming paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, find a clear link between size and productivity (bigger firms are more productive) and between industry concentration and patenting (which they use as a proxy for innovation). But the relationship between concentration and measures of productivity is less clear, particularly outside manufacturing. Mr Philippon, on the other hand, finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between concentration and productivity in the 1990s but not more recently. What seems clear is that even as concentration has risen across the economy over the past two decades, the rate of productivity growth has not. If superstar firms are indeed a force for concentration, their unique capabilities have not translated into broader gains for the American economy.”</em>\r\nFor those of us living in India, Phillipon’s research points to a pattern of behaviour by large American firms which echoes what we see in India on a daily basis: <em>“America’s tech giants have gobbled up competitors and spent lavishly on political donations and lobbying. There is no guarantee that superstars, having achieved dominance, will defend it through innovation and investment rather than anti-competitive behaviour.”</em>\r\nIn India, as in America, there are no easy answers to this political and economic capture. Not only will large, dominant, ambitious firms NOT give way because you and I don’t see the benefit of their dominance, it is not obvious that dismantling these firms will necessarily produce a more efficient economy. This is especially so in a poor country like India where cost of capital is high and, hence, a large company’s reinvestment of internal accruals gives it access to low cost capital.', 'Are anti-competitive firms killing American innovation?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'are-anti-competitive-firms-killing-american-innovation', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:26:50', '2019-12-30 15:26:50', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2632', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2616, 1, '2019-12-22 04:14:05', '2019-12-22 04:14:05', '<div>As the Christmas break approaches, the team at Marcellus gets ready for some heavy duty reading over the holidays (alongside, of course, copious amounts of good food consumed at a leisurely pace with friends &amp; family). If you are looking for good stuff to read over the holidays, you will find Nick Maggiulli – yet another good writer from the Ritholtz stable. Nick points you towards several superbly written articles and good books that he read in 2019. Here are some of our favourites amongst Nick’s recommendations</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>“Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World” by Morgan Housel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aaf2ae2865&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daaf2ae2865%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFtEtxzgDGednvrhBtuPLWJc__olg\">https://www.<wbr />collaborativefund.com/blog/<wbr />three-big-things-the-most-<wbr />important-forces-shaping-the-<wbr />world/</a>): This is a mindblowing piece from the great writer. Housel begins the piece by explaining how World War II has influenced almost everything in our lives – the internet, the civil rights movement in the US, the concept of a ‘social security safety net’, extensive highway networks, birth control, women in the workplace, etc. He then asks what are the 3 Big Things – as big as World War II – which will have profound impact on the coming decades. Read the Housel piece if you want to understand how the world around us really works.</li>\r\n 	<li>“Debunking the Silly “Passive is a Bubble” Myth” by Ben Carlson (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=356ce02f2e&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D356ce02f2e%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG28DbFKxgS_YzbgTBfixK8vz1tXw\">https://awealthofcommonsense.<wbr />com/2019/09/debunking-the-<wbr />silly-passive-is-a-bubble-<wbr />myth/</a>): The ‘Wealth of Commonsense” author takes on Lehman Brothers crash predictor Michael Burry’s latest prediction (that Index funds, like sub-prime CDOs, will blow up). Carlson also takes Seth Klarman who has opined that index investing is a passing fad. Carlson says that index funds are nothing special – they are simply a low cost, low turnover, simple to understand way to gain access to the stockmarket. In the US, they account for only 15% of shares issued by public companies (much lower than US mutual funds). Even more importantly Carlson points out that <em>“Yes, index investors are free riders, but this is the way most markets work. We don’t go to the grocery store to bid on prices of oranges against one another to set an equilibrium. The market does that for us.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li>“The MBA Myth and the Cult of the CEO” by By Dan Rasmussen &amp; Haonan Li (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b8e44d8d35&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db8e44d8d35%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyRwhTM-VMgs1Af5JpZEh9k4Z2LA\">https://www.<wbr />institutionalinvestor.com/<wbr />article/b1db3jy3201d38/The-<wbr />MBA-Myth-and-the-Cult-of-the-<wbr />CEO</a>): At Marcellus we love to challenge this whole notion of “credentialism” i.e. the notion that elite individuals (usually men) who get themselves an elite education (usually a foreign MBA) are any more or less useful than a hardworking, honest and intelligent, person from an unknown educational institution. This painstakingly researched, data driven article goes hammer and tongs at de-bunking corporate myths around the usefulness of MBAs, giving ESOPs to CEOs and superstar CEOs.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div></div>\r\n<div></div>', 'My Favorite Investment Writing of 2019', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'my-favorite-investment-writing-of-2019', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2616', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2617, 1, '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '<div>As the Christmas break approaches, the team at Marcellus gets ready for some heavy duty reading over the holidays (alongside, of course, copious amounts of good food consumed at a leisurely pace with friends &amp; family). If you are looking for good stuff to read over the holidays, you will find Nick Maggiulli – yet another good writer from the Ritholtz stable. Nick points you towards several superbly written articles and good books that he read in 2019. Here are some of our favourites amongst Nick’s recommendations</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>“Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World” by Morgan Housel (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aaf2ae2865&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daaf2ae2865%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFtEtxzgDGednvrhBtuPLWJc__olg\">https://www.<wbr />collaborativefund.com/blog/<wbr />three-big-things-the-most-<wbr />important-forces-shaping-the-<wbr />world/</a>): This is a mindblowing piece from the great writer. Housel begins the piece by explaining how World War II has influenced almost everything in our lives – the internet, the civil rights movement in the US, the concept of a ‘social security safety net’, extensive highway networks, birth control, women in the workplace, etc. He then asks what are the 3 Big Things – as big as World War II – which will have profound impact on the coming decades. Read the Housel piece if you want to understand how the world around us really works.</li>\r\n 	<li>“Debunking the Silly “Passive is a Bubble” Myth” by Ben Carlson (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=356ce02f2e&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D356ce02f2e%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG28DbFKxgS_YzbgTBfixK8vz1tXw\">https://awealthofcommonsense.<wbr />com/2019/09/debunking-the-<wbr />silly-passive-is-a-bubble-<wbr />myth/</a>): The ‘Wealth of Commonsense” author takes on Lehman Brothers crash predictor Michael Burry’s latest prediction (that Index funds, like sub-prime CDOs, will blow up). Carlson also takes Seth Klarman who has opined that index investing is a passing fad. Carlson says that index funds are nothing special – they are simply a low cost, low turnover, simple to understand way to gain access to the stockmarket. In the US, they account for only 15% of shares issued by public companies (much lower than US mutual funds). Even more importantly Carlson points out that <em>“Yes, index investors are free riders, but this is the way most markets work. We don’t go to the grocery store to bid on prices of oranges against one another to set an equilibrium. The market does that for us.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li>“The MBA Myth and the Cult of the CEO” by By Dan Rasmussen &amp; Haonan Li (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b8e44d8d35&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db8e44d8d35%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyRwhTM-VMgs1Af5JpZEh9k4Z2LA\">https://www.<wbr />institutionalinvestor.com/<wbr />article/b1db3jy3201d38/The-<wbr />MBA-Myth-and-the-Cult-of-the-<wbr />CEO</a>): At Marcellus we love to challenge this whole notion of “credentialism” i.e. the notion that elite individuals (usually men) who get themselves an elite education (usually a foreign MBA) are any more or less useful than a hardworking, honest and intelligent, person from an unknown educational institution. This painstakingly researched, data driven article goes hammer and tongs at de-bunking corporate myths around the usefulness of MBAs, giving ESOPs to CEOs and superstar CEOs.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div></div>\r\n<div></div>', 'My Favorite Investment Writing of 2019', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2616-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '2019-12-23 04:16:38', '', 2616, 'https://marcellus.in/2616-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2618, 1, '2019-12-22 04:18:22', '2019-12-22 04:18:22', 'This piece uses a very useful framework created by John Bogle for his classic book published 30-years ago (titled “Bogle on Mutual Funds”). In that book, Bogle shows that you can decompose the investment returns generated by the stockmarket into 3 segments): dividends, earnings growth and growth in P/E. Nir Kaissar uses this framework to make an important point regarding the post-Lehman bull market in the United States: <em>“So what do the numbers reveal about the last decade? Of the S&amp;P 500’s 13.3% annual return since 2010, 2.3% came from dividends, 10.2% from earnings growth and 0.8% from the change in the market’s valuation, as measured by the 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio. In other words, the vast majority of the gains can be attributed to a spike in earnings rather than investors’ willingness to pay more for stocks. In fact, the decade’s earnings growth was the highest on record.</em>\r\n<em>That’s a problem for those who credit the Fed for the market’s stellar decade because cheap money doesn’t appear to have pushed investors to splurge for stocks. That jibes with the recent experience of much of the developed world, where a flood of monetary stimulus in Europe and Japan over the last decade failed to expand their stock market valuations. It’s also consistent with the longer-term record in the U.S., which shows no correlation between P/E ratios and the level of interest rates since 1871, as measured by 10-year Treasury yields (-0.12), counted monthly…</em>\r\n<em>Nor is there any indication that monetary policy is behind the record jump in earnings. Here again, earnings growth has been muted in Europe and Japan in recent years despite aggressive stimulus by central banks.”</em>\r\nThere is also this notion out there that American EPS growth is driven by buybacks, not by underlying PAT growth. Nir Kaissar says: <em>“Buybacks don’t account for the growth, either. Yes, all else equal, buybacks reduce the number of outstanding shares and thereby lift earnings per share, the number commonly used to gauge earnings growth and P/E ratios. But total earnings have grown by 9.4% a year since 2010, just shy of earnings-per-share growth of 10.2%, so buybacks don’t appear to have contributed much. It’s not even clear that the recent rate of buybacks is unusually high.”</em>\r\nWe have a vested interest in highlighting the analysis in Kaissar’s article. In the context of Marcellus’ CCP portfolio in India, we have made the same point: the investment returns which we have delivered have been strongly underpinned by EPS growth (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a95d66048f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da95d66048f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3FF-cJaKV2GRgNPSdMUJ3f0zzBw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-role-of-p-e-multiples-in-<wbr />determining-investment-<wbr />returns/</a>). The problem for Indian investors is that the same cannot be said about the broader Indian market which over the past 6 years has rallied strongly with EPS growth barely running at 5-6%.', 'Expect the Roaring ’10s for Stocks to Repeat in the ’20s', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'expect-the-roaring-10s-for-stocks-to-repeat-in-the-20s', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:55:40', '2019-12-23 04:55:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2618', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2619, 1, '2019-12-23 04:18:22', '2019-12-23 04:18:22', 'This piece uses a very useful framework created by John Bogle for his classic book published 30-years ago (titled “Bogle on Mutual Funds”). In that book, Bogle shows that you can decompose the investment returns generated by the stockmarket into 3 segments): dividends, earnings growth and growth in P/E. Nir Kaissar uses this framework to make an important point regarding the post-Lehman bull market in the United States: <em>“So what do the numbers reveal about the last decade? Of the S&amp;P 500’s 13.3% annual return since 2010, 2.3% came from dividends, 10.2% from earnings growth and 0.8% from the change in the market’s valuation, as measured by the 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio. In other words, the vast majority of the gains can be attributed to a spike in earnings rather than investors’ willingness to pay more for stocks. In fact, the decade’s earnings growth was the highest on record.</em>\r\n<em>That’s a problem for those who credit the Fed for the market’s stellar decade because cheap money doesn’t appear to have pushed investors to splurge for stocks. That jibes with the recent experience of much of the developed world, where a flood of monetary stimulus in Europe and Japan over the last decade failed to expand their stock market valuations. It’s also consistent with the longer-term record in the U.S., which shows no correlation between P/E ratios and the level of interest rates since 1871, as measured by 10-year Treasury yields (-0.12), counted monthly…</em>\r\n<em>Nor is there any indication that monetary policy is behind the record jump in earnings. Here again, earnings growth has been muted in Europe and Japan in recent years despite aggressive stimulus by central banks.”</em>\r\nThere is also this notion out there that American EPS growth is driven by buybacks, not by underlying PAT growth. Nir Kaissar says: <em>“Buybacks don’t account for the growth, either. Yes, all else equal, buybacks reduce the number of outstanding shares and thereby lift earnings per share, the number commonly used to gauge earnings growth and P/E ratios. But total earnings have grown by 9.4% a year since 2010, just shy of earnings-per-share growth of 10.2%, so buybacks don’t appear to have contributed much. It’s not even clear that the recent rate of buybacks is unusually high.”</em>\r\nWe have a vested interest in highlighting the analysis in Kaissar’s article. In the context of Marcellus’ CCP portfolio in India, we have made the same point: the investment returns which we have delivered have been strongly underpinned by EPS growth (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a95d66048f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da95d66048f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577160752965000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3FF-cJaKV2GRgNPSdMUJ3f0zzBw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-role-of-p-e-multiples-in-<wbr />determining-investment-<wbr />returns/</a>). The problem for Indian investors is that the same cannot be said about the broader Indian market which over the past 6 years has rallied strongly with EPS growth barely running at 5-6%.', 'Expect the Roaring ’10s for Stocks to Repeat in the ’20s', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2618-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:18:22', '2019-12-23 04:18:22', '', 2618, 'https://marcellus.in/2618-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2620, 1, '2019-12-22 04:18:37', '2019-12-22 04:18:37', 'As we approach the New Year, many of us are getting ready with our list of resolutions. Some of us will successfully follow through. Some of us will valiantly fight until we give up and likely push it into another New Year or any other such milestone event. It is normal to procrastinate as we all value the present more and putting off seemingly hard things to do in exchange for leisure serves up instant gratification. But as the famous Stanford Marshmallow experiment shows delaying gratification actually leads to more happier and successful outcomes in life. In this latest blog, Scott Young gives us some sense of why do we procrastinate and what can we do to deal with it.', 'Why is Taking Action Hard?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-is-taking-action-hard', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:19:47', '2019-12-23 04:19:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2620', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2621, 1, '2019-12-23 04:19:47', '2019-12-23 04:19:47', 'As we approach the New Year, many of us are getting ready with our list of resolutions. Some of us will successfully follow through. Some of us will valiantly fight until we give up and likely push it into another New Year or any other such milestone event. It is normal to procrastinate as we all value the present more and putting off seemingly hard things to do in exchange for leisure serves up instant gratification. But as the famous Stanford Marshmallow experiment shows delaying gratification actually leads to more happier and successful outcomes in life. In this latest blog, Scott Young gives us some sense of why do we procrastinate and what can we do to deal with it.', 'Why is Taking Action Hard?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2620-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:19:47', '2019-12-23 04:19:47', '', 2620, 'https://marcellus.in/2620-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2622, 1, '2019-12-22 04:30:39', '2019-12-22 04:30:39', 'David Byrne’s book <em>“How Music Works”</em> talks about how music composition has a context to it. <em>“For example, he explains that medieval European music was often harmonically simple because playing lots of notes at once sounded terrible in cathedrals, and that trumpets were common in early jazz because the instrument’s high frequency could be heard over a talkative audience. Today, keyboards have become the central instrument in music composition because it translates well to MIDI, the interface for digitizing music.”</em>\r\nSimilarly, how music is delivered gives context to what sort of music gets appreciated. So, with the ubiquitous use of earphones and headsets for listening to music (according to Nielsen, computers and phones are the top two devices for listening to music and hence the use of headphones), the kind of music that appeals more to listeners is the one that is suited to the technical capabilities of earphones as a delivery device.\r\n<em>“Listening to music on headphones is very different to speakers where there is a temporal and spatial difference between you and the music,” says Charlie Harding, one of the hosts of the podcast Switched On Pop and co-author of a new book on music theory in popular music. Harding partially credits the success of podcasting to headphones: listening that way creates a feeling of closeness between the hosts and listener.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, he hears this in the singing of some pop artists, particularly Selena Gomez and Billie Eilish. “Their style of singing is almost like a whisper, as if they are right in your head,” he says. The recent single by Gomez, “Look at Her Now” is a perfect example according to Harding.</em>\r\n<em>… Another way headphones are changing music is in the production of bass-heavy music. Harding explains that on small speakers, like headphones or those in a laptop, low frequencies are harder to hear than when blasted from the big speakers you might encounter at a concert venue or club. If you ever wondered why the bass feels so powerful when you are out dancing, that’s why. In order for the bass to be heard well on headphones, music producers have to boost bass frequencies in the higher range, the part of the sound spectrum that small speakers handle well.</em>\r\n<em>Producers are increasingly mixing music for smaller speakers and the relatively low sound quality that comes from streaming music. Jeff Ellis, producer of Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange, makes a point of testing how songs sound on smartphone speakers and headphones because he knows this is how most people listen to music now.”</em>', 'How headphones are changing the sound of music', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-headphones-are-changing-the-sound-of-music', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:32:47', '2019-12-23 04:32:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2622', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2623, 1, '2019-12-23 04:32:47', '2019-12-23 04:32:47', 'David Byrne’s book <em>“How Music Works”</em> talks about how music composition has a context to it. <em>“For example, he explains that medieval European music was often harmonically simple because playing lots of notes at once sounded terrible in cathedrals, and that trumpets were common in early jazz because the instrument’s high frequency could be heard over a talkative audience. Today, keyboards have become the central instrument in music composition because it translates well to MIDI, the interface for digitizing music.”</em>\r\nSimilarly, how music is delivered gives context to what sort of music gets appreciated. So, with the ubiquitous use of earphones and headsets for listening to music (according to Nielsen, computers and phones are the top two devices for listening to music and hence the use of headphones), the kind of music that appeals more to listeners is the one that is suited to the technical capabilities of earphones as a delivery device.\r\n<em>“Listening to music on headphones is very different to speakers where there is a temporal and spatial difference between you and the music,” says Charlie Harding, one of the hosts of the podcast Switched On Pop and co-author of a new book on music theory in popular music. Harding partially credits the success of podcasting to headphones: listening that way creates a feeling of closeness between the hosts and listener.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, he hears this in the singing of some pop artists, particularly Selena Gomez and Billie Eilish. “Their style of singing is almost like a whisper, as if they are right in your head,” he says. The recent single by Gomez, “Look at Her Now” is a perfect example according to Harding.</em>\r\n<em>… Another way headphones are changing music is in the production of bass-heavy music. Harding explains that on small speakers, like headphones or those in a laptop, low frequencies are harder to hear than when blasted from the big speakers you might encounter at a concert venue or club. If you ever wondered why the bass feels so powerful when you are out dancing, that’s why. In order for the bass to be heard well on headphones, music producers have to boost bass frequencies in the higher range, the part of the sound spectrum that small speakers handle well.</em>\r\n<em>Producers are increasingly mixing music for smaller speakers and the relatively low sound quality that comes from streaming music. Jeff Ellis, producer of Frank Ocean’s Channel Orange, makes a point of testing how songs sound on smartphone speakers and headphones because he knows this is how most people listen to music now.”</em>', 'How headphones are changing the sound of music', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2622-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:32:47', '2019-12-23 04:32:47', '', 2622, 'https://marcellus.in/2622-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2624, 1, '2019-12-22 04:33:07', '2019-12-22 04:33:07', 'Paul Graham is an investor, especially known for having founded Y Combinator, a successful incubation platform in Silicon Valley, having incubated companies such as Airbnb, Drobbox, Doordash, etc. In this particularly insightful blog, Paul highlights the need for obsessive interest in a subject as a key ingredient for success, especially the creative kind of success. He uses the example of people who collect bus tickets as a passionate interest, where there is clearly no tangible benefit. Yet a bus ticket collector collects tickets simply because she is deeply interested in this. And such deep interest can be attributed to success elsewhere in other fields as well.\r\n<em>“The bus ticket theory is similar to Carlyle\'s famous definition of genius as an infinite capacity for taking pains. But there are two differences. The bus ticket theory makes it clear that the source of this infinite capacity for taking pains is not infinite diligence, as Carlyle seems to have meant, but the sort of infinite interest that collectors have. It also adds an important qualification: an infinite capacity for taking pains about something that matters.</em>\r\n<em>So what matters? You can never be sure. It\'s precisely because no one can tell in advance which paths are promising that you can discover new ideas by working on what you\'re interested in.</em>\r\n<em>But there are some heuristics you can use to guess whether an obsession might be one that matters. For example, it\'s more promising if you\'re creating something, rather than just consuming something someone else creates. It\'s more promising if something you\'re interested in is difficult, especially if it\'s more difficult for other people than it is for you. And the obsessions of talented people are more likely to be promising. When talented people become interested in random things, they\'re not truly random.”</em>\r\nPaul extends this line of thought towards parenting as well. He reckons whilst traditional schooling system should take care of helping kids with broad shallow focus, we as parents should help kids narrow their focus and let them go deep. If not for anything else but just for them to experience the joy of learning.\r\n<em>“It may even be that we can cultivate a habit of intellectual bus ticket collecting in kids. The usual plan in education is to start with a broad, shallow focus, then gradually become more specialized. But I\'ve done the opposite with my kids. I know I can count on their school to handle the broad, shallow part, so I take them deep.</em>\r\n<em>When they get interested in something, however random, I encourage them to go preposterously, bus ticket collectorly, deep. I don\'t do this because of the bus ticket theory. I do it because I want them to feel the joy of learning, and they\'re never going to feel that about something I\'m making them learn. It has to be something they\'re interested in. I\'m just following the path of least resistance; depth is a byproduct. But if in trying to show them the joy of learning I also end up training them to go deep, so much the better.</em>\r\n<em>Will it have any effect? I have no idea. But that uncertainty may be the most interesting point of all. There is so much more to learn about how to do great work. As old as human civilization feels, it\'s really still very young if we haven\'t nailed something so basic. It\'s exciting to think there are still discoveries to make about discovery. If that\'s the sort of thing you\'re interested in.”</em>', 'The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-bus-ticket-theory-of-genius', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:52:59', '2019-12-23 04:52:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2624', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2625, 1, '2019-12-23 04:52:59', '2019-12-23 04:52:59', 'Paul Graham is an investor, especially known for having founded Y Combinator, a successful incubation platform in Silicon Valley, having incubated companies such as Airbnb, Drobbox, Doordash, etc. In this particularly insightful blog, Paul highlights the need for obsessive interest in a subject as a key ingredient for success, especially the creative kind of success. He uses the example of people who collect bus tickets as a passionate interest, where there is clearly no tangible benefit. Yet a bus ticket collector collects tickets simply because she is deeply interested in this. And such deep interest can be attributed to success elsewhere in other fields as well.\r\n<em>“The bus ticket theory is similar to Carlyle\'s famous definition of genius as an infinite capacity for taking pains. But there are two differences. The bus ticket theory makes it clear that the source of this infinite capacity for taking pains is not infinite diligence, as Carlyle seems to have meant, but the sort of infinite interest that collectors have. It also adds an important qualification: an infinite capacity for taking pains about something that matters.</em>\r\n<em>So what matters? You can never be sure. It\'s precisely because no one can tell in advance which paths are promising that you can discover new ideas by working on what you\'re interested in.</em>\r\n<em>But there are some heuristics you can use to guess whether an obsession might be one that matters. For example, it\'s more promising if you\'re creating something, rather than just consuming something someone else creates. It\'s more promising if something you\'re interested in is difficult, especially if it\'s more difficult for other people than it is for you. And the obsessions of talented people are more likely to be promising. When talented people become interested in random things, they\'re not truly random.”</em>\r\nPaul extends this line of thought towards parenting as well. He reckons whilst traditional schooling system should take care of helping kids with broad shallow focus, we as parents should help kids narrow their focus and let them go deep. If not for anything else but just for them to experience the joy of learning.\r\n<em>“It may even be that we can cultivate a habit of intellectual bus ticket collecting in kids. The usual plan in education is to start with a broad, shallow focus, then gradually become more specialized. But I\'ve done the opposite with my kids. I know I can count on their school to handle the broad, shallow part, so I take them deep.</em>\r\n<em>When they get interested in something, however random, I encourage them to go preposterously, bus ticket collectorly, deep. I don\'t do this because of the bus ticket theory. I do it because I want them to feel the joy of learning, and they\'re never going to feel that about something I\'m making them learn. It has to be something they\'re interested in. I\'m just following the path of least resistance; depth is a byproduct. But if in trying to show them the joy of learning I also end up training them to go deep, so much the better.</em>\r\n<em>Will it have any effect? I have no idea. But that uncertainty may be the most interesting point of all. There is so much more to learn about how to do great work. As old as human civilization feels, it\'s really still very young if we haven\'t nailed something so basic. It\'s exciting to think there are still discoveries to make about discovery. If that\'s the sort of thing you\'re interested in.”</em>', 'The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2624-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:52:59', '2019-12-23 04:52:59', '', 2624, 'https://marcellus.in/2624-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2626, 1, '2019-12-22 04:53:06', '2019-12-22 04:53:06', 'We know of companies who have shot themselves in the foot going for instant glory and in the bargain sacrificing sustainability. Here’s an example of an entire industry – video gaming, which back in the 80s was bigger than Hollywood and pop music combined went bust, thanks to the mad rush for riches. Centrestage was the then world’s largest gaming company Atari and its hotshot video game creator Howard Scott Warshaw.\r\n<em>“Founded in 1972 by Nolan Bushnell and Ted Dabney, Atari had grown from an arcade game maker into what was then the fastest-growing company in US history — a $2B-per-year ($6.2B in 2019 dollars) behemoth with 80% market share. Warner Communications, which had purchased Atari in 1976, was thirsty for more.</em>\r\n<em>At the time, video games were in the midst of a golden age. Driven by hits like Space Invaders (1978), Asteroids (1979), and Pac-Man (1980), the coin-op arcade industry was, by the early ‘80s, more profitable than Hollywood and the pop music industry combined.</em>\r\n<em>The holy grail was in replicating these arcade games in a play-at-home console. Atari, which had recently released its VCS (later renamed the Atari 2600), was well-poised to dominate its competition…”</em>\r\nWith the huge success of Atari’s game Raiders of the Lost Ark inspired the hit Spieberg movie, gaming companies started licensing rights of successful movies often paying over the odds to chase instant success.\r\n<em>“In its earlier days, Atari gave programmers ample time (5-10 months) to create and develop innovative games. But that window closed when the company realized that the real road to riches was in licensing the rights to films.</em>\r\n<em>When Raiders of the Lost Ark saw success, Atari’s culture shifted from one led by engineers to one dominated by sales and marketing employees tasked with rushing games to the market.</em>\r\n<em>The typical game took 1k hours’ worth of work over 6 months. Warshaw had less than 36 hours to come up with a concept to present to Hollywood’s hottest director.</em>\r\n<em>Worse yet, he had just 5 weeks to finish the game — a task that one reporter called “the computer equivalent of simultaneously composing and playing a minute waltz in under 30 seconds.”</em>\r\n<em>“The reason a game takes 6 months is there’s a lot of tuning and tweaking; you work on the game until you have a good one and the variable is time,” said Warshaw. “In this case, it was an inversion of that: Instead of starting with the goal of making a good game, it’s, ‘OK I have 5 weeks — let’s see how good of a game I can make.’”</em>\r\nThe pursuit of quantity over quality meant that not just the game but the whole industry headed for disaster.\r\n<em>“Initially priced at $38, the game was soon on sale for $7.99. Millions of copies went unsold, and thousands more were returned.</em>\r\n<em>Unfortunately for Warshaw, the flop of E.T. coincided with a much graver event: The video game crash of 1983.</em>\r\n<em>A flood of low-quality, hastily created games, coupled with the rise of the personal computer, led to a moment of reckoning: In the 2 years following the release of E.T., the video game industry saw its revenue fall from $3.2B to just $100m — a 97% decline.</em>\r\n<em>By the end of 1983, Atari reported $536m in losses. Over a 12-month period, the company went from 10k to 2k employees, and its stock slid from $60 to $20. In mid-1984, Warner sold the ailing company for $50 cash and $240m in stock.”</em>', 'The man who made the “worst” video game in history', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-man-who-made-the-worst-video-game-in-history', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:54:39', '2019-12-23 04:54:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2626', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2627, 1, '2019-12-23 04:54:39', '2019-12-23 04:54:39', 'We know of companies who have shot themselves in the foot going for instant glory and in the bargain sacrificing sustainability. Here’s an example of an entire industry – video gaming, which back in the 80s was bigger than Hollywood and pop music combined went bust, thanks to the mad rush for riches. Centrestage was the then world’s largest gaming company Atari and its hotshot video game creator Howard Scott Warshaw.\r\n<em>“Founded in 1972 by Nolan Bushnell and Ted Dabney, Atari had grown from an arcade game maker into what was then the fastest-growing company in US history — a $2B-per-year ($6.2B in 2019 dollars) behemoth with 80% market share. Warner Communications, which had purchased Atari in 1976, was thirsty for more.</em>\r\n<em>At the time, video games were in the midst of a golden age. Driven by hits like Space Invaders (1978), Asteroids (1979), and Pac-Man (1980), the coin-op arcade industry was, by the early ‘80s, more profitable than Hollywood and the pop music industry combined.</em>\r\n<em>The holy grail was in replicating these arcade games in a play-at-home console. Atari, which had recently released its VCS (later renamed the Atari 2600), was well-poised to dominate its competition…”</em>\r\nWith the huge success of Atari’s game Raiders of the Lost Ark inspired the hit Spieberg movie, gaming companies started licensing rights of successful movies often paying over the odds to chase instant success.\r\n<em>“In its earlier days, Atari gave programmers ample time (5-10 months) to create and develop innovative games. But that window closed when the company realized that the real road to riches was in licensing the rights to films.</em>\r\n<em>When Raiders of the Lost Ark saw success, Atari’s culture shifted from one led by engineers to one dominated by sales and marketing employees tasked with rushing games to the market.</em>\r\n<em>The typical game took 1k hours’ worth of work over 6 months. Warshaw had less than 36 hours to come up with a concept to present to Hollywood’s hottest director.</em>\r\n<em>Worse yet, he had just 5 weeks to finish the game — a task that one reporter called “the computer equivalent of simultaneously composing and playing a minute waltz in under 30 seconds.”</em>\r\n<em>“The reason a game takes 6 months is there’s a lot of tuning and tweaking; you work on the game until you have a good one and the variable is time,” said Warshaw. “In this case, it was an inversion of that: Instead of starting with the goal of making a good game, it’s, ‘OK I have 5 weeks — let’s see how good of a game I can make.’”</em>\r\nThe pursuit of quantity over quality meant that not just the game but the whole industry headed for disaster.\r\n<em>“Initially priced at $38, the game was soon on sale for $7.99. Millions of copies went unsold, and thousands more were returned.</em>\r\n<em>Unfortunately for Warshaw, the flop of E.T. coincided with a much graver event: The video game crash of 1983.</em>\r\n<em>A flood of low-quality, hastily created games, coupled with the rise of the personal computer, led to a moment of reckoning: In the 2 years following the release of E.T., the video game industry saw its revenue fall from $3.2B to just $100m — a 97% decline.</em>\r\n<em>By the end of 1983, Atari reported $536m in losses. Over a 12-month period, the company went from 10k to 2k employees, and its stock slid from $60 to $20. In mid-1984, Warner sold the ailing company for $50 cash and $240m in stock.”</em>', 'The man who made the “worst” video game in history', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2626-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-23 04:54:39', '2019-12-23 04:54:39', '', 2626, 'https://marcellus.in/2626-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2628, 1, '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, famously said, <em>“You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”</em> A robust military structure built on the foundations of unswerving training and a disciplined approach is one that is believed to win wars. This school of thought is supported by the military strategy of <em>‘</em>attrition warfare’ whereby an army wins a battle by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. In such a scenario, the war is more often than not won by the side with more resources, the side with the bigger and stronger army so to say. The larger, more solid military structure triumphs. In other words, structure determines strategy<em>.</em>\r\n\r\nThis approach has given way to a modern school of thought called ‘manoeuvre warfare’ wherein readiness and flexibility are imbibed in military approach. Manoeuvre warfare implies defeating the enemy by tactically limiting the enemy’s movement. Napoleon used a combination of cavalry and fast infantry movement to defeat superior forces while they still moved to their intended place of battle. Shivaji, was another proponent of manoeuvre warfare, his army would use out of the box strategies and essentially the element of surprise to defeat the opponent. Manoeuvre warfare strategies are based on the premise that a fluid structure driven by a smart strategy and out of box thinking triumph over a disciplined structure, i.e. strategy determines structure.\r\n\r\nThe age-old debate of what comes first – strategy or structure is not limited to military warfare but extends to businesses as well. A study of the cause and effect relationship of these two interdependent concepts leads to interesting results.\r\n\r\nThe Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework which used to be famously used in industrial organization studies until about 20 years ago can be likened to attritional warfare. It posits that an industry’s structure dictates how firms in the industry behave and the behaviour of the company in turn drives its performance. Michael Porter’s five forces framework drew from the SCP framework and made it widely popular. Porter and industrial organization economists therefore believe that structure determines strategy (and the two together determine performance).\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, for ages, management theory has taught us that an organization’s strategy should determine its structure. The company’s vision and mission should drive all business decisions – capital structure, supply chain, reporting structure, employee policies, and so on. However, this implies that the management needs to mould the status quo to suit its objectives and attempt to alter external variables. Given the difficulty of the task ahead of them, most management teams opt for the easier way out – they change their strategy and vision to adapt to the existing industry and organization structure. Companies often fall prey to the “this is how things are done in this industry”, “this is our way of functioning”, leading to a gradual shift in strategy and alignment of all functions to the organization’s way of doing things. By trying to improve the way in which existing structures operate, and then gaining efficiencies in that structure, managers become creatures of the structure and succumb to the comforts of the known and trespassed. Unknown territories are looked at with doubt and not ventured upon for fear of the unknown. Creators of structure knowingly or unknowingly become creatures of that structure. While implementing any strategy, competitive forces and the industry structure often act as invisible barriers which an ordinary management cannot think beyond. This often serves as a deterrent to any kind of disruption or innovation and the company is caught up in its own narrow pond of thought. This results in a conundrum wherein all future strategy is drawn up within the four walls of the organization’s existing structure. Charles Ellis aptly summarizes this in his book <em>Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellence </em>(2004)<em>, “The more successfully a corporation perfects the efficiency of its structure, the more surely that structure will eventually strangulate the effectiveness of its strategy.” </em>His namesake Charles Darwin’s statement is as relevant to the field of business as to the field of evolution “<em>It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications:</strong>\r\nLarge, market leading organizations are generally associated with bureaucracy and processes that are difficult to change while younger, smaller organizations are associated with nimble footedness and agility. As a result, at Marcellus we often face the paradox of looking for dominant, market leading franchises that are also extremely fluid, which is why we end up investing from a small universe of stocks that portray this unique combination of market leadership and agility. We typically look for organizations that ideate like entrepreneurs and execute like MNCs. One of our portfolio companies, Bajaj Finance is a fitting example. Every year, the company zero bases its vital processes and starts from scratch to counteract the anchoring bias. This lends the company the freshness of a new venture even while sustaining as a large organization. Whether it is Asian Paints rethinking the structure of the paints industry (read Chapter 2 of the ‘<em>Unusual Billionaires’ </em>(2016)) or Bajaj Finance rethinking its processes every year, it is rare to find companies which have the courage and conviction to give strategy precedence over structure. It is this approach of completely altering the status quo rather than focusing on incremental innovation that leads to disproportionate benefits over long periods of time. Businesses which behave like Napolean and Shivaji show the limitations of the Porter and SCP frameworks. Our framework of identifying firms with long track records of outstanding results and then seeking to understand how their strategy drives structure upend the Porter and SCP frameworks.\r\n\r\nApart from looking for new companies that possess this unique characteristic, fluidity is an important conduit through which we also test our existing portfolio companies. In our analysis of portfolio companies, we conduct the <em>‘lethargy test’</em> wherein we constantly ask questions such as is the company nimble-footed, is it constantly innovating, is it only reacting to changes or is it being proactive and anticipating changes and so on.\r\n\r\nFluidity and flexibility in structure would imply true liberation of an organization’s strategy. Much like warfare, running successful companies is an art more than a science and much like in war, only the nimble-footed stand the test of time. Apart from ensuring that our portfolio companies keep demonstrating an ability to alter the status quo for their benefit, it is our continuous endeavour to discover clean companies which have the courage and clarity of thought to prioritise strategy over structure.</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n<em>Tej Shah is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39617b6342&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D39617b6342%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577270124797000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4g3K5t2zTzvQPka4lRMwG8C3Aig\">http://marcellus.in</a></p>', 'What come first - Strategy or Structure?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'what-come-first-strategy-or-structure', '', '', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?page_id=2628', 0, 'page', '', 0);
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(2629, 1, '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, famously said, <em>“You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”</em> A robust military structure built on the foundations of unswerving training and a disciplined approach is one that is believed to win wars. This school of thought is supported by the military strategy of <em>‘</em>attrition warfare’ whereby an army wins a battle by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. In such a scenario, the war is more often than not won by the side with more resources, the side with the bigger and stronger army so to say. The larger, more solid military structure triumphs. In other words, structure determines strategy<em>.</em>\r\n\r\nThis approach has given way to a modern school of thought called ‘manoeuvre warfare’ wherein readiness and flexibility are imbibed in military approach. Manoeuvre warfare implies defeating the enemy by tactically limiting the enemy’s movement. Napoleon used a combination of cavalry and fast infantry movement to defeat superior forces while they still moved to their intended place of battle. Shivaji, was another proponent of manoeuvre warfare, his army would use out of the box strategies and essentially the element of surprise to defeat the opponent. Manoeuvre warfare strategies are based on the premise that a fluid structure driven by a smart strategy and out of box thinking triumph over a disciplined structure, i.e. strategy determines structure.\r\n\r\nThe age-old debate of what comes first – strategy or structure is not limited to military warfare but extends to businesses as well. A study of the cause and effect relationship of these two interdependent concepts leads to interesting results.\r\n\r\nThe Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework which used to be famously used in industrial organization studies until about 20 years ago can be likened to attritional warfare. It posits that an industry’s structure dictates how firms in the industry behave and the behaviour of the company in turn drives its performance. Michael Porter’s five forces framework drew from the SCP framework and made it widely popular. Porter and industrial organization economists therefore believe that structure determines strategy (and the two together determine performance).\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, for ages, management theory has taught us that an organization’s strategy should determine its structure. The company’s vision and mission should drive all business decisions – capital structure, supply chain, reporting structure, employee policies, and so on. However, this implies that the management needs to mould the status quo to suit its objectives and attempt to alter external variables. Given the difficulty of the task ahead of them, most management teams opt for the easier way out – they change their strategy and vision to adapt to the existing industry and organization structure. Companies often fall prey to the “this is how things are done in this industry”, “this is our way of functioning”, leading to a gradual shift in strategy and alignment of all functions to the organization’s way of doing things. By trying to improve the way in which existing structures operate, and then gaining efficiencies in that structure, managers become creatures of the structure and succumb to the comforts of the known and trespassed. Unknown territories are looked at with doubt and not ventured upon for fear of the unknown. Creators of structure knowingly or unknowingly become creatures of that structure. While implementing any strategy, competitive forces and the industry structure often act as invisible barriers which an ordinary management cannot think beyond. This often serves as a deterrent to any kind of disruption or innovation and the company is caught up in its own narrow pond of thought. This results in a conundrum wherein all future strategy is drawn up within the four walls of the organization’s existing structure. Charles Ellis aptly summarizes this in his book <em>Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellence </em>(2004)<em>, “The more successfully a corporation perfects the efficiency of its structure, the more surely that structure will eventually strangulate the effectiveness of its strategy.” </em>His namesake Charles Darwin’s statement is as relevant to the field of business as to the field of evolution “<em>It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications:</strong>\r\nLarge, market leading organizations are generally associated with bureaucracy and processes that are difficult to change while younger, smaller organizations are associated with nimble footedness and agility. As a result, at Marcellus we often face the paradox of looking for dominant, market leading franchises that are also extremely fluid, which is why we end up investing from a small universe of stocks that portray this unique combination of market leadership and agility. We typically look for organizations that ideate like entrepreneurs and execute like MNCs. One of our portfolio companies, Bajaj Finance is a fitting example. Every year, the company zero bases its vital processes and starts from scratch to counteract the anchoring bias. This lends the company the freshness of a new venture even while sustaining as a large organization. Whether it is Asian Paints rethinking the structure of the paints industry (read Chapter 2 of the ‘<em>Unusual Billionaires’ </em>(2016)) or Bajaj Finance rethinking its processes every year, it is rare to find companies which have the courage and conviction to give strategy precedence over structure. It is this approach of completely altering the status quo rather than focusing on incremental innovation that leads to disproportionate benefits over long periods of time. Businesses which behave like Napolean and Shivaji show the limitations of the Porter and SCP frameworks. Our framework of identifying firms with long track records of outstanding results and then seeking to understand how their strategy drives structure upend the Porter and SCP frameworks.\r\n\r\nApart from looking for new companies that possess this unique characteristic, fluidity is an important conduit through which we also test our existing portfolio companies. In our analysis of portfolio companies, we conduct the <em>‘lethargy test’</em> wherein we constantly ask questions such as is the company nimble-footed, is it constantly innovating, is it only reacting to changes or is it being proactive and anticipating changes and so on.\r\n\r\nFluidity and flexibility in structure would imply true liberation of an organization’s strategy. Much like warfare, running successful companies is an art more than a science and much like in war, only the nimble-footed stand the test of time. Apart from ensuring that our portfolio companies keep demonstrating an ability to alter the status quo for their benefit, it is our continuous endeavour to discover clean companies which have the courage and clarity of thought to prioritise strategy over structure.</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n<em>Tej Shah is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n</p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39617b6342&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D39617b6342%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577270124797000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4g3K5t2zTzvQPka4lRMwG8C3Aig\">http://marcellus.in</a></p>', 'What come first - Strategy or Structure?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2628-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '2019-12-24 10:37:55', '', 2628, 'https://marcellus.in/2628-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2631, 1, '2019-12-24 10:40:51', '2019-12-24 10:40:51', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The former US Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, famously said, <em>“You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”</em> A robust military structure built on the foundations of unswerving training and a disciplined approach is one that is believed to win wars. This school of thought is supported by the military strategy of <em>‘</em>attrition warfare’ whereby an army wins a battle by wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and material. In such a scenario, the war is more often than not won by the side with more resources, the side with the bigger and stronger army so to say. The larger, more solid military structure triumphs. In other words, structure determines strategy<em>.</em></p>\r\nThis approach has given way to a modern school of thought called ‘manoeuvre warfare’ wherein readiness and flexibility are imbibed in military approach. Manoeuvre warfare implies defeating the enemy by tactically limiting the enemy’s movement. Napoleon used a combination of cavalry and fast infantry movement to defeat superior forces while they still moved to their intended place of battle. Shivaji, was another proponent of manoeuvre warfare, his army would use out of the box strategies and essentially the element of surprise to defeat the opponent. Manoeuvre warfare strategies are based on the premise that a fluid structure driven by a smart strategy and out of box thinking triumph over a disciplined structure, i.e. strategy determines structure.\r\n\r\nThe age-old debate of what comes first – strategy or structure is not limited to military warfare but extends to businesses as well. A study of the cause and effect relationship of these two interdependent concepts leads to interesting results.\r\n\r\nThe Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework which used to be famously used in industrial organization studies until about 20 years ago can be likened to attritional warfare. It posits that an industry’s structure dictates how firms in the industry behave and the behaviour of the company in turn drives its performance. Michael Porter’s five forces framework drew from the SCP framework and made it widely popular. Porter and industrial organization economists therefore believe that structure determines strategy (and the two together determine performance).\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, for ages, management theory has taught us that an organization’s strategy should determine its structure. The company’s vision and mission should drive all business decisions – capital structure, supply chain, reporting structure, employee policies, and so on. However, this implies that the management needs to mould the status quo to suit its objectives and attempt to alter external variables. Given the difficulty of the task ahead of them, most management teams opt for the easier way out – they change their strategy and vision to adapt to the existing industry and organization structure. Companies often fall prey to the “this is how things are done in this industry”, “this is our way of functioning”, leading to a gradual shift in strategy and alignment of all functions to the organization’s way of doing things. By trying to improve the way in which existing structures operate, and then gaining efficiencies in that structure, managers become creatures of the structure and succumb to the comforts of the known and trespassed. Unknown territories are looked at with doubt and not ventured upon for fear of the unknown. Creators of structure knowingly or unknowingly become creatures of that structure. While implementing any strategy, competitive forces and the industry structure often act as invisible barriers which an ordinary management cannot think beyond. This often serves as a deterrent to any kind of disruption or innovation and the company is caught up in its own narrow pond of thought. This results in a conundrum wherein all future strategy is drawn up within the four walls of the organization’s existing structure. Charles Ellis aptly summarizes this in his book <em>Capital: The Story of Long-Term Investment Excellence </em>(2004)<em>, “The more successfully a corporation perfects the efficiency of its structure, the more surely that structure will eventually strangulate the effectiveness of its strategy.” </em>His namesake Charles Darwin’s statement is as relevant to the field of business as to the field of evolution “<em>It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications:</strong>\r\nLarge, market leading organizations are generally associated with bureaucracy and processes that are difficult to change while younger, smaller organizations are associated with nimble footedness and agility. As a result, at Marcellus we often face the paradox of looking for dominant, market leading franchises that are also extremely fluid, which is why we end up investing from a small universe of stocks that portray this unique combination of market leadership and agility. We typically look for organizations that ideate like entrepreneurs and execute like MNCs. One of our portfolio companies, Bajaj Finance is a fitting example. Every year, the company zero bases its vital processes and starts from scratch to counteract the anchoring bias. This lends the company the freshness of a new venture even while sustaining as a large organization. Whether it is Asian Paints rethinking the structure of the paints industry (read Chapter 2 of the ‘<em>Unusual Billionaires’ </em>(2016)) or Bajaj Finance rethinking its processes every year, it is rare to find companies which have the courage and conviction to give strategy precedence over structure. It is this approach of completely altering the status quo rather than focusing on incremental innovation that leads to disproportionate benefits over long periods of time. Businesses which behave like Napolean and Shivaji show the limitations of the Porter and SCP frameworks. Our framework of identifying firms with long track records of outstanding results and then seeking to understand how their strategy drives structure upend the Porter and SCP frameworks.\r\n\r\nApart from looking for new companies that possess this unique characteristic, fluidity is an important conduit through which we also test our existing portfolio companies. In our analysis of portfolio companies, we conduct the <em>‘lethargy test’</em> wherein we constantly ask questions such as is the company nimble-footed, is it constantly innovating, is it only reacting to changes or is it being proactive and anticipating changes and so on.\r\n\r\nFluidity and flexibility in structure would imply true liberation of an organization’s strategy. Much like warfare, running successful companies is an art more than a science and much like in war, only the nimble-footed stand the test of time. Apart from ensuring that our portfolio companies keep demonstrating an ability to alter the status quo for their benefit, it is our continuous endeavour to discover clean companies which have the courage and clarity of thought to prioritise strategy over structure.\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Tej Shah is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em></p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">To read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=39617b6342&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D39617b6342%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577270124797000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4g3K5t2zTzvQPka4lRMwG8C3Aig\">https://marcellus.in</a></p>', 'What comes first - Strategy or Structure?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-come-first-strategy-or-structure', '', '', '2019-12-24 10:43:22', '2019-12-24 10:43:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2631', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2634, 1, '2019-12-29 14:41:15', '2019-12-29 14:41:15', 'If there’s one thing that has made smartphones the gamechanging tech of our lifetimes, it is the use of location data – think Amazon’s delivery efficiencies or ride sharing or food delivery, etc. Whilst all these are examples of how businesses and consumers alike have benefited from the technology, there is a dark side to it. In this superb piece of journalism, the authors of this interactive article, show how information about our whereabouts is not just being recorded but also sold as ‘insights’ thanks to our smartphones hanging onto our person all the time and the several apps whom we have knowingly or otherwise allowed to access, store and share our location data.\r\n<em>“At least 75 companies receive anonymous, precise location data from apps whose users enable location services to get local news and weather or other information, The Times found. Several of those businesses claim to track up to 200 million mobile devices in the United States — about half those in use last year. The database reviewed by The Times — a sample of information gathered in 2017 and held by one company — reveals people’s travels in startling detail, accurate to within a few yards and in some cases updated more than 14,000 times a day.</em>\r\n<em>These companies sell, use or analyze the data to cater to advertisers, retail outlets and even hedge funds seeking insights into consumer behavior. It’s a hot market, with sales of location-targeted advertising reaching an estimated $21 billion this year. IBM has gotten into the industry, with its purchase of the Weather Channel’s apps. The social network Foursquare remade itself as a location marketing company. Prominent investors in location start-ups include Goldman Sachs and Peter Thiel, the PayPal co-founder.</em>\r\n<em>“To evaluate location-sharing practices, The Times tested 20 apps, most of which had been flagged by researchers and industry insiders as potentially sharing the data. Together, 17 of the apps sent exact latitude and longitude to about 70 businesses. Precise location data from one app, WeatherBug on iOS, was received by 40 companies. When contacted by The Times, some of the companies that received that data described it as “unsolicited” or “inappropriate.”</em>\r\nMost users whilst having given permission to the app to access its location data are not completely aware of what they sign up for.\r\n<em>“Ms. Lee had given apps on her iPhone access to her location only for certain purposes — helping her find parking spaces, sending her weather alerts — and only if they did not indicate that the information would be used for anything else, she said. Ms. Magrin had allowed about a dozen apps on her Android phone access to her whereabouts for services like traffic notifications. But it is easy to share information without realizing it. Of the 17 apps that The Times saw sending precise location data, just three on iOS and one on Android told users in a prompt during the permission process that the information could be used for advertising.”</em>\r\n<em>Even industry insiders acknowledge that many people either don’t read those policies or may not fully understand their opaque language. Policies for apps that funnel location information to help investment firms, for instance, have said the data is used for market analysis, or simply shared for business purposes.</em>\r\n<em>“Most people don’t know what’s going on,” said Emmett Kilduff, the chief executive of Eagle Alpha, which sells data to financial firms and hedge funds. Mr. Kilduff said responsibility for complying with data-gathering regulations fell to the companies that collected it from people.</em>', 'Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They’re Not Keeping It Secret', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'your-apps-know-where-you-were-last-night-and-theyre-not-keeping-it-secret', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:25:33', '2019-12-30 15:25:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2634', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2635, 1, '2019-12-30 14:45:45', '2019-12-30 14:45:45', 'If there’s one thing that has made smartphones the gamechanging tech of our lifetimes, it is the use of location data – think Amazon’s delivery efficiencies or ride sharing or food delivery, etc. Whilst all these are examples of how businesses and consumers alike have benefited from the technology, there is a dark side to it. In this superb piece of journalism, the authors of this interactive article, show how information about our whereabouts is not just being recorded but also sold as ‘insights’ thanks to our smartphones hanging onto our person all the time and the several apps whom we have knowingly or otherwise allowed to access, store and share our location data.\r\n<em>“At least 75 companies receive anonymous, precise location data from apps whose users enable location services to get local news and weather or other information, The Times found. Several of those businesses claim to track up to 200 million mobile devices in the United States — about half those in use last year. The database reviewed by The Times — a sample of information gathered in 2017 and held by one company — reveals people’s travels in startling detail, accurate to within a few yards and in some cases updated more than 14,000 times a day.</em>\r\n<em>These companies sell, use or analyze the data to cater to advertisers, retail outlets and even hedge funds seeking insights into consumer behavior. It’s a hot market, with sales of location-targeted advertising reaching an estimated $21 billion this year. IBM has gotten into the industry, with its purchase of the Weather Channel’s apps. The social network Foursquare remade itself as a location marketing company. Prominent investors in location start-ups include Goldman Sachs and Peter Thiel, the PayPal co-founder.</em>\r\n<em>“To evaluate location-sharing practices, The Times tested 20 apps, most of which had been flagged by researchers and industry insiders as potentially sharing the data. Together, 17 of the apps sent exact latitude and longitude to about 70 businesses. Precise location data from one app, WeatherBug on iOS, was received by 40 companies. When contacted by The Times, some of the companies that received that data described it as “unsolicited” or “inappropriate.”</em>\r\nMost users whilst having given permission to the app to access its location data are not completely aware of what they sign up for.\r\n<em>“Ms. Lee had given apps on her iPhone access to her location only for certain purposes — helping her find parking spaces, sending her weather alerts — and only if they did not indicate that the information would be used for anything else, she said. Ms. Magrin had allowed about a dozen apps on her Android phone access to her whereabouts for services like traffic notifications. But it is easy to share information without realizing it. Of the 17 apps that The Times saw sending precise location data, just three on iOS and one on Android told users in a prompt during the permission process that the information could be used for advertising.”</em>\r\n<em>Even industry insiders acknowledge that many people either don’t read those policies or may not fully understand their opaque language. Policies for apps that funnel location information to help investment firms, for instance, have said the data is used for market analysis, or simply shared for business purposes.</em>\r\n<em>“Most people don’t know what’s going on,” said Emmett Kilduff, the chief executive of Eagle Alpha, which sells data to financial firms and hedge funds. Mr. Kilduff said responsibility for complying with data-gathering regulations fell to the companies that collected it from people.</em>', 'Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They’re Not Keeping It Secret', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 14:45:45', '2019-12-30 14:45:45', '', 2634, 'https://marcellus.in/2634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2636, 1, '2019-12-29 14:46:04', '2019-12-29 14:46:04', 'This <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9a5d92649c&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9a5d92649c%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_LcrCSdsPpYwH682cxm9warBAXw\">video</a> on Youtube of a marine conservation biologist trying to help a sea turtle relieve of a plastic straw up its nostril went viral with 38m views. Similar gut wrenching videos of vast swathes of plastic dumped in the ocean – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=093164d519&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D093164d519%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHDO_BJjEfrJ9lrvoInW6Sg_gfG0g\">the Great Pacific Garbage Patch</a> (supposedly twice the size of Texas) - have inspired some people to stand up and say no to plastic. However, the change has been very slow. This article talks about how serious the problem remains, particularly focusing on the amount of plastic used for the ubiquitous packaging of consumer goods.\r\n<em>“Today, roughly 6 per cent of global fossil-fuel consumption goes into making plastic, and that is expected to increase to 20 per cent by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.</em>\r\n<em>Plastic has become the go-to for packaging goods…The share of plastics in packaging increased from 17 per cent in 2000 to 25 per cent in 2015, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which has done extensive work on how to fix plastic ­pollution. Most of this is used once and discarded — costing $80bn to $120bn annually and flooding a global recycling system that simply cannot handle the stuff.”</em>\r\nWhilst awareness for recycling has picked up and indeed companies committing to using recycled packaging material is also growing, it is still an insignificant portion and beset with genuine technological challenges.\r\n<em>“Although few in the industry admit it, the reality is that plastic recycling rates globally are woefully low. About 8.3 billion tons of plastic has been produced since the 1950s, but research shows that only 9 per cent has been recycled. The remainder has ended up in landfill, the ocean or loose in the environment. High-income countries often ship their waste around the world for recycling but some of it is dumped instead, a problem that intensified last year when China closed its doors to waste imports. </em>\r\n<em>Unlike glass or metal, plastic packaging cannot be recycled ad infinitum because it degrades in quality. While scientists are working on so-called advanced recycling techniques to overcome this problem, they are not yet commercially viable. In the meantime, only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is even collected for recycling.</em>\r\n<em>.. “The real problem is that the technology to recycle plastic films just doesn’t exist,” says Mark Miodownik, a professor of material science at University College London, referring to the plastic in clingfilm, plastic bags, produce bags and multimaterial sachets. Then there is the toothpaste tube. Colgate-Palmolive, the world’s biggest toothpaste maker, has spent five years working on a recyclable tube. We currently use roughly 20 billion tubes annually, all of which end up in landfills or incinerated.</em>\r\n<em>...This reality has led green campaigners to argue that corporate pledges to make packaging recyclable are a cop-out. They would rather industry reduce the volume of plastic used instead. To date, only one big consumer goods company has committed to do so: Unilever aims to reduce annual use of plastic packaging by about 14 per cent by 2025. “It behoves the plastic industry to confuse people. Recycling is bullshit. It is a fig leaf of consumerism — a way to appease our guilt,” says Siân Sutherland, who co-founded the advocacy group A Plastic Planet.” </em>\r\nThere are initiatives to come up with alternatives which are relatively environment friendly.\r\n<em>“With $46m in venture funding, Israel-based start-up Tipa has developed a compostable flexible plastic film made of bio-materials that can be used to package everything from coffee beans to fresh carrots. </em>\r\n<em>Notpla, a London-based start-up, has pioneered an edible, home-­compostable film made of seaweed, which can be used to package drinks or sauces. Early trials have included handing out water pouches at the London marathon, Glenlivet whisky pods at a cocktail festival and replacing plastic ketchup packets in orders from Just Eat, the UK’s largest takeaway delivery platform.”</em>\r\nHowever, none of these are yet to be proven to be implemented at a scale that large consumer companies can deem cost effective. For now, change has to be driven by the conscious consumer who doesn’t mind a little bit of inconvenience or will pay extra for keeping the environment safe and clean for future generations.\r\n<em>“Sartre is one of the early customers of Loop, a new company that seeks to eliminate waste by teaming up with well-known brands such as Häagen-Dazs ice cream, Dove soap and Crest mouthwash to make their packaging reusable. Now in trials with tens of thousands of people in Paris and across the US, the company aims to create a radically new shopping model in which packaging becomes durable, reusable, valuable and sometimes even beautiful, instead of something to be immediately thrown away. The start-up is working both with multinationals such as Nestlé, Unilever, Procter &amp; Gamble and PepsiCo and the supermarkets that distribute their wares. </em>\r\n<em>The concept appealed to Sartre, who uses the service to teach her seven- and nine-year-old children about how their consumption habits affect the environment. “I’m pretty militant about it,” she admits. “I really want to show as a consumer that I don’t want any more plastic, and send a message to big companies that I’m ready to spend money to back another model of consumption that is more in line with my values.”  Sartre is in the vanguard of a burgeoning consumer movement against plastic packaging that has begun to spur change at the world’s biggest makers of food, drink and household products. Industry executives say that vocal customers have pushed concerns about climate change and pollution up the agenda to the point where big businesses can no longer ignore them.</em>', 'Can we break our addiction to plastic? The future of packaging', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'can-we-break-our-addiction-to-plastic-the-future-of-packaging', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:22:36', '2019-12-30 15:22:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2636', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2637, 1, '2019-12-30 14:47:54', '2019-12-30 14:47:54', 'This <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9a5d92649c&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9a5d92649c%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_LcrCSdsPpYwH682cxm9warBAXw\">video</a> on Youtube of a marine conservation biologist trying to help a sea turtle relieve of a plastic straw up its nostril went viral with 38m views. Similar gut wrenching videos of vast swathes of plastic dumped in the ocean – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=093164d519&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D093164d519%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHDO_BJjEfrJ9lrvoInW6Sg_gfG0g\">the Great Pacific Garbage Patch</a> (supposedly twice the size of Texas) - have inspired some people to stand up and say no to plastic. However, the change has been very slow. This article talks about how serious the problem remains, particularly focusing on the amount of plastic used for the ubiquitous packaging of consumer goods.\r\n<em>“Today, roughly 6 per cent of global fossil-fuel consumption goes into making plastic, and that is expected to increase to 20 per cent by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.</em>\r\n<em>Plastic has become the go-to for packaging goods…The share of plastics in packaging increased from 17 per cent in 2000 to 25 per cent in 2015, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which has done extensive work on how to fix plastic ­pollution. Most of this is used once and discarded — costing $80bn to $120bn annually and flooding a global recycling system that simply cannot handle the stuff.”</em>\r\nWhilst awareness for recycling has picked up and indeed companies committing to using recycled packaging material is also growing, it is still an insignificant portion and beset with genuine technological challenges.\r\n<em>“Although few in the industry admit it, the reality is that plastic recycling rates globally are woefully low. About 8.3 billion tons of plastic has been produced since the 1950s, but research shows that only 9 per cent has been recycled. The remainder has ended up in landfill, the ocean or loose in the environment. High-income countries often ship their waste around the world for recycling but some of it is dumped instead, a problem that intensified last year when China closed its doors to waste imports. </em>\r\n<em>Unlike glass or metal, plastic packaging cannot be recycled ad infinitum because it degrades in quality. While scientists are working on so-called advanced recycling techniques to overcome this problem, they are not yet commercially viable. In the meantime, only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is even collected for recycling.</em>\r\n<em>.. “The real problem is that the technology to recycle plastic films just doesn’t exist,” says Mark Miodownik, a professor of material science at University College London, referring to the plastic in clingfilm, plastic bags, produce bags and multimaterial sachets. Then there is the toothpaste tube. Colgate-Palmolive, the world’s biggest toothpaste maker, has spent five years working on a recyclable tube. We currently use roughly 20 billion tubes annually, all of which end up in landfills or incinerated.</em>\r\n<em>...This reality has led green campaigners to argue that corporate pledges to make packaging recyclable are a cop-out. They would rather industry reduce the volume of plastic used instead. To date, only one big consumer goods company has committed to do so: Unilever aims to reduce annual use of plastic packaging by about 14 per cent by 2025. “It behoves the plastic industry to confuse people. Recycling is bullshit. It is a fig leaf of consumerism — a way to appease our guilt,” says Siân Sutherland, who co-founded the advocacy group A Plastic Planet.” </em>\r\nThere are initiatives to come up with alternatives which are relatively environment friendly.\r\n<em>“With $46m in venture funding, Israel-based start-up Tipa has developed a compostable flexible plastic film made of bio-materials that can be used to package everything from coffee beans to fresh carrots. </em>\r\n<em>Notpla, a London-based start-up, has pioneered an edible, home-­compostable film made of seaweed, which can be used to package drinks or sauces. Early trials have included handing out water pouches at the London marathon, Glenlivet whisky pods at a cocktail festival and replacing plastic ketchup packets in orders from Just Eat, the UK’s largest takeaway delivery platform.”</em>\r\nHowever, none of these are yet to be proven to be implemented at a scale that large consumer companies can deem cost effective. For now, change has to be driven by the conscious consumer who doesn’t mind a little bit of inconvenience or will pay extra for keeping the environment safe and clean for future generations.\r\n<em>“Sartre is one of the early customers of Loop, a new company that seeks to eliminate waste by teaming up with well-known brands such as Häagen-Dazs ice cream, Dove soap and Crest mouthwash to make their packaging reusable. Now in trials with tens of thousands of people in Paris and across the US, the company aims to create a radically new shopping model in which packaging becomes durable, reusable, valuable and sometimes even beautiful, instead of something to be immediately thrown away. The start-up is working both with multinationals such as Nestlé, Unilever, Procter &amp; Gamble and PepsiCo and the supermarkets that distribute their wares. </em>\r\n<em>The concept appealed to Sartre, who uses the service to teach her seven- and nine-year-old children about how their consumption habits affect the environment. “I’m pretty militant about it,” she admits. “I really want to show as a consumer that I don’t want any more plastic, and send a message to big companies that I’m ready to spend money to back another model of consumption that is more in line with my values.”  Sartre is in the vanguard of a burgeoning consumer movement against plastic packaging that has begun to spur change at the world’s biggest makers of food, drink and household products. Industry executives say that vocal customers have pushed concerns about climate change and pollution up the agenda to the point where big businesses can no longer ignore them.</em>', 'Can we break our addiction to plastic? The future of packaging', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2636-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 14:47:54', '2019-12-30 14:47:54', '', 2636, 'https://marcellus.in/2636-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2638, 1, '2019-12-29 14:49:03', '2019-12-29 14:49:03', 'Michael Mauboussin, director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management, has conducted a study which looks at the ideal team size for an asset management firm seeking to beat the market. He finds that funds managed by a team do better than funds managed by a single individual. That begs the question “What is the ideal size of a winning asset management team?”\r\nMaubossin says <em>“The best team size is three. The next best is five…Funds managed by three-person teams tend to outperform solo-run funds by 58 basis points a year, beating any other team size, according to Mauboussin. Although the effect is small, it’s statistically significant that teams are better at managing money...”</em>\r\nSo why is three a better team size than, say, seven for managing money? <em>““The idea that more people tend to be better — more experience, more training, different points of view, and that’s to a large degree offset by coordination costs — getting people physically together,” Mauboussin said. “Smaller is better than bigger. Three would be preferable than seven.”</em>\r\n<em>Furthermore, people should go beyond the typical social category diversity when creating a team, Mauboussin said. Social category diversity reflects differences in race, ethnicity, gender, age, etc. Cognitive diversity includes differences in education, training, experience, expertise and personality, which is key to problem-solving, Mauboussin said.””</em>', 'The ideal team size for a money manager to beat the market', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-ideal-team-size-for-a-money-manager-to-beat-the-market', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:20:22', '2019-12-30 15:20:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2638', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2646, 1, '2019-12-30 15:12:12', '2019-12-30 15:12:12', 'Michael Mauboussin, director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management, has conducted a study which looks at the ideal team size for an asset management firm seeking to beat the market. He finds that funds managed by a team do better than funds managed by a single individual. That begs the question “What is the ideal size of a winning asset management team?”\r\nMaubossin says <em>“The best team size is three. The next best is five…Funds managed by three-person teams tend to outperform solo-run funds by 58 basis points a year, beating any other team size, according to Mauboussin. Although the effect is small, it’s statistically significant that teams are better at managing money...”</em>\r\nSo why is three a better team size than, say, seven for managing money? <em>““The idea that more people tend to be better — more experience, more training, different points of view, and that’s to a large degree offset by coordination costs — getting people physically together,” Mauboussin said. “Smaller is better than bigger. Three would be preferable than seven.”</em>\r\n<em>Furthermore, people should go beyond the typical social category diversity when creating a team, Mauboussin said. Social category diversity reflects differences in race, ethnicity, gender, age, etc. Cognitive diversity includes differences in education, training, experience, expertise and personality, which is key to problem-solving, Mauboussin said.””</em>', 'The ideal team size for a money manager to beat the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2638-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:12:12', '2019-12-30 15:12:12', '', 2638, 'https://marcellus.in/2638-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2639, 1, '2019-12-30 14:59:25', '2019-12-30 14:59:25', 'In last week’s 3L-3S, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4f4817aed1&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4f4817aed1%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZf7bVnkyb_CMg6omoLPOJOPivMA\">piece</a> on how the emergence of headphones are actually influencing the sort of music being produced. This piece in the Economist looks at the business side of things for ‘earwear’. The numbers are indeed staggering:\r\n<em>“Apple does not release figures for any of its “wearables”, but AirPods are the fastest-growing of all of its products, with profit margins above 50%, says Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. With the new noise-cancelling AirPod Pro, which costs around $250 a pair, he reckons Apple’s ear-ware may generate up to $15bn of sales next year. That would be about four times the revenues of a headphone veteran like Bose. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, predicts that this quarter AirPod sales could exceed those of the iPod at its peak around Christmas 2007.”</em>\r\n<em>Audible content is likewise undergoing a mini-revolution. For the third year in a row, revenues from recorded music in America grew by double digits in 2018, largely thanks to subscriptions to Spotify, Apple Music and the like. Podcasts have grown both more numerous and more compelling. This year Spotify has set out to rule the roost in this medium, which Apple first streamed via iTunes in the mid-2000s. The Swedish firm acquired Gimlet, Anchor and Parcast, three firms that serve different aspects of the podcast market; it now hosts a staggering 500,000 podcasts; hours spent listening to them grew by 39% year-on-year in the third quarter. In October it boasted that the conversion of podcast listeners to paying subscribers is “almost too good to be true”.”</em>\r\nBut even these numbers dwarf in front of the video industry prompting the audio industry leaders to suggest there is a long way to go.\r\n<em>“Industry executives contend that audio is undervalued—especially compared with video. As Spotify’s co-founder, Daniel Ek, said earlier this year, time spent on each is about the same, but the video industry is worth $1trn versus $100bn for audio. “Are our eyes really worth ten times more than our ears?” he asks.</em>\r\n<em>The eyeball plainly still dominates. The number of screens dwarfs that of “hearables”. Between them, just three Tinseltown groups—Warner Media, Disney and Netflix—have spent as much as $250bn on visual programming since 2010. Audio, including music, comes nowhere near. That said, the battle to “monetise the ear”, as Greg Maffei, Liberty Media’s boss, puts it, is in full swing. These days no one would lend Mark Antony theirs; they would rent or sell them.”</em>', 'The ideal team size for a money manager to beat the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2638-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 14:59:25', '2019-12-30 14:59:25', '', 2638, 'https://marcellus.in/2638-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2640, 1, '2019-12-29 15:00:48', '2019-12-29 15:00:48', 'In last week’s 3L-3S, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4f4817aed1&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4f4817aed1%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZf7bVnkyb_CMg6omoLPOJOPivMA\">piece</a> on how the emergence of headphones are actually influencing the sort of music being produced. This piece in the Economist looks at the business side of things for ‘earwear’. The numbers are indeed staggering:\r\n<em>“Apple does not release figures for any of its “wearables”, but AirPods are the fastest-growing of all of its products, with profit margins above 50%, says Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. With the new noise-cancelling AirPod Pro, which costs around $250 a pair, he reckons Apple’s ear-ware may generate up to $15bn of sales next year. That would be about four times the revenues of a headphone veteran like Bose. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, predicts that this quarter AirPod sales could exceed those of the iPod at its peak around Christmas 2007.”</em>\r\n<em>Audible content is likewise undergoing a mini-revolution. For the third year in a row, revenues from recorded music in America grew by double digits in 2018, largely thanks to subscriptions to Spotify, Apple Music and the like. Podcasts have grown both more numerous and more compelling. This year Spotify has set out to rule the roost in this medium, which Apple first streamed via iTunes in the mid-2000s. The Swedish firm acquired Gimlet, Anchor and Parcast, three firms that serve different aspects of the podcast market; it now hosts a staggering 500,000 podcasts; hours spent listening to them grew by 39% year-on-year in the third quarter. In October it boasted that the conversion of podcast listeners to paying subscribers is “almost too good to be true”.”</em>\r\nBut even these numbers dwarf in front of the video industry prompting the audio industry leaders to suggest there is a long way to go.\r\n<em>“Industry executives contend that audio is undervalued—especially compared with video. As Spotify’s co-founder, Daniel Ek, said earlier this year, time spent on each is about the same, but the video industry is worth $1trn versus $100bn for audio. “Are our eyes really worth ten times more than our ears?” he asks.</em>\r\n<em>The eyeball plainly still dominates. The number of screens dwarfs that of “hearables”. Between them, just three Tinseltown groups—Warner Media, Disney and Netflix—have spent as much as $250bn on visual programming since 2010. Audio, including music, comes nowhere near. That said, the battle to “monetise the ear”, as Greg Maffei, Liberty Media’s boss, puts it, is in full swing. These days no one would lend Mark Antony theirs; they would rent or sell them.”</em>', 'The buzz around AirPods', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-buzz-around-airpods', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:16:52', '2019-12-30 15:16:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2640', 0, 'story', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(2641, 1, '2019-12-30 15:02:28', '2019-12-30 15:02:28', 'In last week’s 3L-3S, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4f4817aed1&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4f4817aed1%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZf7bVnkyb_CMg6omoLPOJOPivMA\">piece</a> on how the emergence of headphones are actually influencing the sort of music being produced. This piece in the Economist looks at the business side of things for ‘earwear’. The numbers are indeed staggering:\r\n<em>“Apple does not release figures for any of its “wearables”, but AirPods are the fastest-growing of all of its products, with profit margins above 50%, says Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. With the new noise-cancelling AirPod Pro, which costs around $250 a pair, he reckons Apple’s ear-ware may generate up to $15bn of sales next year. That would be about four times the revenues of a headphone veteran like Bose. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, predicts that this quarter AirPod sales could exceed those of the iPod at its peak around Christmas 2007.”</em>\r\n<em>Audible content is likewise undergoing a mini-revolution. For the third year in a row, revenues from recorded music in America grew by double digits in 2018, largely thanks to subscriptions to Spotify, Apple Music and the like. Podcasts have grown both more numerous and more compelling. This year Spotify has set out to rule the roost in this medium, which Apple first streamed via iTunes in the mid-2000s. The Swedish firm acquired Gimlet, Anchor and Parcast, three firms that serve different aspects of the podcast market; it now hosts a staggering 500,000 podcasts; hours spent listening to them grew by 39% year-on-year in the third quarter. In October it boasted that the conversion of podcast listeners to paying subscribers is “almost too good to be true”.”</em>\r\nBut even these numbers dwarf in front of the video industry prompting the audio industry leaders to suggest there is a long way to go.\r\n<em>“Industry executives contend that audio is undervalued—especially compared with video. As Spotify’s co-founder, Daniel Ek, said earlier this year, time spent on each is about the same, but the video industry is worth $1trn versus $100bn for audio. “Are our eyes really worth ten times more than our ears?” he asks.</em>\r\n<em>The eyeball plainly still dominates. The number of screens dwarfs that of “hearables”. Between them, just three Tinseltown groups—Warner Media, Disney and Netflix—have spent as much as $250bn on visual programming since 2010. Audio, including music, comes nowhere near. That said, the battle to “monetise the ear”, as Greg Maffei, Liberty Media’s boss, puts it, is in full swing. These days no one would lend Mark Antony theirs; they would rent or sell them.”</em>', 'The buzz around AirPods', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2640-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:02:28', '2019-12-30 15:02:28', '', 2640, 'https://marcellus.in/2640-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2642, 1, '2019-12-30 15:11:17', '2019-12-30 15:11:17', 'Michael Mauboussin, director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management, has conducted a study which looks at the ideal team size for an asset management firm seeking to beat the market. He finds that funds managed by a team do better than funds managed by a single individual. That begs the question “What is the ideal size of a winning asset management team?”\nMaubossin says <em>“The best team size is three. The next best is five…Funds managed by three-person teams tend to outperform solo-run funds by 58 basis points a year, beating any other team size, according to Mauboussin. Although the effect is small, it’s statistically significant that teams are better at managing money...”</em>\nSo why is three a better team size than, say, seven for managing money? <em>““The idea that more people tend to be better — more experience, more training, different points of view, and that’s to a large degree offset by coordination costs — getting people physically together,” Mauboussin said. “Smaller is better than bigger. Three would be preferable than seven.”</em>\n<em>Furthermore, people should go beyond the typical social category diversity when creating a team, Mauboussin said. Social category diversity reflects differences in race, ethnicity, gender, age, etc. Cognitive diversity includes differences in education, training, experience, expertise and personality, which is key to problem-solving, Mauboussin said.””</em>', 'The ideal team size for a money manager to beat the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2638-autosave-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:11:17', '2019-12-30 15:11:17', '', 2638, 'https://marcellus.in/2638-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2643, 1, '2019-12-30 15:05:03', '2019-12-30 15:05:03', 'In last week’s 3L-3S, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4f4817aed1&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4f4817aed1%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZf7bVnkyb_CMg6omoLPOJOPivMA\">piece</a> on how the emergence of headphones are actually influencing the sort of music being produced. This piece in the Economist looks at the business side of things for ‘earwear’. The numbers are indeed staggering:\r\n<em>“Apple does not release figures for any of its “wearables”, but AirPods are the fastest-growing of all of its products, with profit margins above 50%, says Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. With the new noise-cancelling AirPod Pro, which costs around $250 a pair, he reckons Apple’s ear-ware may generate up to $15bn of sales next year. That would be about four times the revenues of a headphone veteran like Bose. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, predicts that this quarter AirPod sales could exceed those of the iPod at its peak around Christmas 2007.”</em>\r\n<em>Audible content is likewise undergoing a mini-revolution. For the third year in a row, revenues from recorded music in America grew by double digits in 2018, largely thanks to subscriptions to Spotify, Apple Music and the like. Podcasts have grown both more numerous and more compelling. This year Spotify has set out to rule the roost in this medium, which Apple first streamed via iTunes in the mid-2000s. The Swedish firm acquired Gimlet, Anchor and Parcast, three firms that serve different aspects of the podcast market; it now hosts a staggering 500,000 podcasts; hours spent listening to them grew by 39% year-on-year in the third quarter. In October it boasted that the conversion of podcast listeners to paying subscribers is “almost too good to be true”.”</em>\r\nBut even these numbers dwarf in front of the video industry prompting the audio industry leaders to suggest there is a long way to go.\r\n<em>“Industry executives contend that audio is undervalued—especially compared with video. As Spotify’s co-founder, Daniel Ek, said earlier this year, time spent on each is about the same, but the video industry is worth $1trn versus $100bn for audio. “Are our eyes really worth ten times more than our ears?” he asks.</em>\r\n<em>The eyeball plainly still dominates. The number of screens dwarfs that of “hearables”. Between them, just three Tinseltown groups—Warner Media, Disney and Netflix—have spent as much as $250bn on visual programming since 2010. Audio, including music, comes nowhere near. That said, the battle to “monetise the ear”, as Greg Maffei, Liberty Media’s boss, puts it, is in full swing. These days no one would lend Mark Antony theirs; they would rent or sell them.”</em>', 'The buzz around AirPods', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2640-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:05:03', '2019-12-30 15:05:03', '', 2640, 'https://marcellus.in/2640-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2644, 1, '2019-12-29 15:05:33', '2019-12-29 15:05:33', 'There is almost a sense of purity when it comes Japanese cuisine with all the emphasis on the freshness of ingredients and retaining as much original flavours of the ingredients. Indeed, Japan is host to the highest number of Michelin starred restaurants. Yet, like everything Japanese, there is an oddity involved with Japanese when it comes to their food preferences – a Christmas time fascination for KFC – a fast food chain serving processed meat, deep fried, anything but Japanese or as the author of this piece puts it <em>“the Japanese choose to associate the day with the archetypal company of the aptly named standard American diet (processed meat, pre-packaged foods, butter, fried foods, high-sugar drinks)”.</em>\r\n<em>Between December 23 and 25 is when KFC Japan has its highest sales of the year. All in all, the company sells approximately 300,000 party barrels and 800,000 Christmas packs during this peak season, which accounts for </em><em>about a third of the chain’s yearly sales in Japan….Each year, it’s estimated that 3.6 million Japanese people fill their stomachs with the Colonel’s secret blend of herbs and spices.”</em>\r\nThe article traces the origins of this ‘tradition’ for the Japanese to line up in hordes outside KFC stores across the country.\r\n<em>“To understand why, we must travel back in time to December 1974, when KFC Japan, a company run by the American parent and the Japanese Mitsubishi Corporation, had been serving the land of the rising sun for just four years….. it was on this date that the first manager of KFC, Takeshi Okawara, overheard foreigners in his store commiserating over the country’s lack of Christmas dinner. Later, in a dream, Okawara beheld a “party barrel” – a fried chicken experience to replace these sad expats’ turkey, all at a low low all-inclusive price. (This scheme did well for Okawara. He became president and CEO of Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan from 1984 to 2002.)</em>\r\n<em>“KFC came to Japan in 1970, and held the first Christmas campaign in 1974, selling the combination of KFC’s original recipe chicken and a bottle of wine,” says Yuko Nakajima, chief marketing officer of KFC Japan. “Fried chicken and wine became a hit right away and a new Christmas custom for the Japanese market was introduced. This quickly evolved into a tradition for the market, ‘Fried Chicken for Christmas’.”</em>', 'The curious tale of how Japan got hooked on KFC at Christmas', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-curious-tale-of-how-japan-got-hooked-on-kfc-at-christmas', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:15:28', '2019-12-30 15:15:28', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2644', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2645, 1, '2019-12-30 15:07:45', '2019-12-30 15:07:45', 'There is almost a sense of purity when it comes Japanese cuisine with all the emphasis on the freshness of ingredients and retaining as much original flavours of the ingredients. Indeed, Japan is host to the highest number of Michelin starred restaurants. Yet, like everything Japanese, there is an oddity involved with Japanese when it comes to their food preferences – a Christmas time fascination for KFC – a fast food chain serving processed meat, deep fried, anything but Japanese or as the author of this piece puts it <em>“the Japanese choose to associate the day with the archetypal company of the aptly named standard American diet (processed meat, pre-packaged foods, butter, fried foods, high-sugar drinks)”.</em>\r\n<em>Between December 23 and 25 is when KFC Japan has its highest sales of the year. All in all, the company sells approximately 300,000 party barrels and 800,000 Christmas packs during this peak season, which accounts for </em><em>about a third of the chain’s yearly sales in Japan….Each year, it’s estimated that 3.6 million Japanese people fill their stomachs with the Colonel’s secret blend of herbs and spices.”</em>\r\nThe article traces the origins of this ‘tradition’ for the Japanese to line up in hordes outside KFC stores across the country.\r\n<em>“To understand why, we must travel back in time to December 1974, when KFC Japan, a company run by the American parent and the Japanese Mitsubishi Corporation, had been serving the land of the rising sun for just four years….. it was on this date that the first manager of KFC, Takeshi Okawara, overheard foreigners in his store commiserating over the country’s lack of Christmas dinner. Later, in a dream, Okawara beheld a “party barrel” – a fried chicken experience to replace these sad expats’ turkey, all at a low low all-inclusive price. (This scheme did well for Okawara. He became president and CEO of Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan from 1984 to 2002.)</em>\r\n<em>“KFC came to Japan in 1970, and held the first Christmas campaign in 1974, selling the combination of KFC’s original recipe chicken and a bottle of wine,” says Yuko Nakajima, chief marketing officer of KFC Japan. “Fried chicken and wine became a hit right away and a new Christmas custom for the Japanese market was introduced. This quickly evolved into a tradition for the market, ‘Fried Chicken for Christmas’.”</em>', 'The curious tale of how Japan got hooked on KFC at Christmas', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2644-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:07:45', '2019-12-30 15:07:45', '', 2644, 'https://marcellus.in/2644-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2647, 1, '2019-12-30 15:15:28', '2019-12-30 15:15:28', 'There is almost a sense of purity when it comes Japanese cuisine with all the emphasis on the freshness of ingredients and retaining as much original flavours of the ingredients. Indeed, Japan is host to the highest number of Michelin starred restaurants. Yet, like everything Japanese, there is an oddity involved with Japanese when it comes to their food preferences – a Christmas time fascination for KFC – a fast food chain serving processed meat, deep fried, anything but Japanese or as the author of this piece puts it <em>“the Japanese choose to associate the day with the archetypal company of the aptly named standard American diet (processed meat, pre-packaged foods, butter, fried foods, high-sugar drinks)”.</em>\r\n<em>Between December 23 and 25 is when KFC Japan has its highest sales of the year. All in all, the company sells approximately 300,000 party barrels and 800,000 Christmas packs during this peak season, which accounts for </em><em>about a third of the chain’s yearly sales in Japan….Each year, it’s estimated that 3.6 million Japanese people fill their stomachs with the Colonel’s secret blend of herbs and spices.”</em>\r\nThe article traces the origins of this ‘tradition’ for the Japanese to line up in hordes outside KFC stores across the country.\r\n<em>“To understand why, we must travel back in time to December 1974, when KFC Japan, a company run by the American parent and the Japanese Mitsubishi Corporation, had been serving the land of the rising sun for just four years….. it was on this date that the first manager of KFC, Takeshi Okawara, overheard foreigners in his store commiserating over the country’s lack of Christmas dinner. Later, in a dream, Okawara beheld a “party barrel” – a fried chicken experience to replace these sad expats’ turkey, all at a low low all-inclusive price. (This scheme did well for Okawara. He became president and CEO of Kentucky Fried Chicken Japan from 1984 to 2002.)</em>\r\n<em>“KFC came to Japan in 1970, and held the first Christmas campaign in 1974, selling the combination of KFC’s original recipe chicken and a bottle of wine,” says Yuko Nakajima, chief marketing officer of KFC Japan. “Fried chicken and wine became a hit right away and a new Christmas custom for the Japanese market was introduced. This quickly evolved into a tradition for the market, ‘Fried Chicken for Christmas’.”</em>', 'The curious tale of how Japan got hooked on KFC at Christmas', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2644-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:15:28', '2019-12-30 15:15:28', '', 2644, 'https://marcellus.in/2644-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2648, 1, '2019-12-30 15:16:52', '2019-12-30 15:16:52', 'In last week’s 3L-3S, we featured a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4f4817aed1&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4f4817aed1%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZf7bVnkyb_CMg6omoLPOJOPivMA\">piece</a> on how the emergence of headphones are actually influencing the sort of music being produced. This piece in the Economist looks at the business side of things for ‘earwear’. The numbers are indeed staggering:\r\n<em>“Apple does not release figures for any of its “wearables”, but AirPods are the fastest-growing of all of its products, with profit margins above 50%, says Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment firm. With the new noise-cancelling AirPod Pro, which costs around $250 a pair, he reckons Apple’s ear-ware may generate up to $15bn of sales next year. That would be about four times the revenues of a headphone veteran like Bose. Horace Dediu, a technology analyst, predicts that this quarter AirPod sales could exceed those of the iPod at its peak around Christmas 2007.”</em>\r\n<em>Audible content is likewise undergoing a mini-revolution. For the third year in a row, revenues from recorded music in America grew by double digits in 2018, largely thanks to subscriptions to Spotify, Apple Music and the like. Podcasts have grown both more numerous and more compelling. This year Spotify has set out to rule the roost in this medium, which Apple first streamed via iTunes in the mid-2000s. The Swedish firm acquired Gimlet, Anchor and Parcast, three firms that serve different aspects of the podcast market; it now hosts a staggering 500,000 podcasts; hours spent listening to them grew by 39% year-on-year in the third quarter. In October it boasted that the conversion of podcast listeners to paying subscribers is “almost too good to be true”.”</em>\r\nBut even these numbers dwarf in front of the video industry prompting the audio industry leaders to suggest there is a long way to go.\r\n<em>“Industry executives contend that audio is undervalued—especially compared with video. As Spotify’s co-founder, Daniel Ek, said earlier this year, time spent on each is about the same, but the video industry is worth $1trn versus $100bn for audio. “Are our eyes really worth ten times more than our ears?” he asks.</em>\r\n<em>The eyeball plainly still dominates. The number of screens dwarfs that of “hearables”. Between them, just three Tinseltown groups—Warner Media, Disney and Netflix—have spent as much as $250bn on visual programming since 2010. Audio, including music, comes nowhere near. That said, the battle to “monetise the ear”, as Greg Maffei, Liberty Media’s boss, puts it, is in full swing. These days no one would lend Mark Antony theirs; they would rent or sell them.”</em>', 'The buzz around AirPods', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2640-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:16:52', '2019-12-30 15:16:52', '', 2640, 'https://marcellus.in/2640-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2649, 1, '2019-12-30 15:20:22', '2019-12-30 15:20:22', 'Michael Mauboussin, director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management, has conducted a study which looks at the ideal team size for an asset management firm seeking to beat the market. He finds that funds managed by a team do better than funds managed by a single individual. That begs the question “What is the ideal size of a winning asset management team?”\r\nMaubossin says <em>“The best team size is three. The next best is five…Funds managed by three-person teams tend to outperform solo-run funds by 58 basis points a year, beating any other team size, according to Mauboussin. Although the effect is small, it’s statistically significant that teams are better at managing money...”</em>\r\nSo why is three a better team size than, say, seven for managing money? <em>““The idea that more people tend to be better — more experience, more training, different points of view, and that’s to a large degree offset by coordination costs — getting people physically together,” Mauboussin said. “Smaller is better than bigger. Three would be preferable than seven.”</em>\r\n<em>Furthermore, people should go beyond the typical social category diversity when creating a team, Mauboussin said. Social category diversity reflects differences in race, ethnicity, gender, age, etc. Cognitive diversity includes differences in education, training, experience, expertise and personality, which is key to problem-solving, Mauboussin said.””</em>', 'The ideal team size for a money manager to beat the market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2638-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:20:22', '2019-12-30 15:20:22', '', 2638, 'https://marcellus.in/2638-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2650, 1, '2019-12-30 15:22:36', '2019-12-30 15:22:36', 'This <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9a5d92649c&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9a5d92649c%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_LcrCSdsPpYwH682cxm9warBAXw\">video</a> on Youtube of a marine conservation biologist trying to help a sea turtle relieve of a plastic straw up its nostril went viral with 38m views. Similar gut wrenching videos of vast swathes of plastic dumped in the ocean – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=093164d519&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D093164d519%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1577802898967000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHDO_BJjEfrJ9lrvoInW6Sg_gfG0g\">the Great Pacific Garbage Patch</a> (supposedly twice the size of Texas) - have inspired some people to stand up and say no to plastic. However, the change has been very slow. This article talks about how serious the problem remains, particularly focusing on the amount of plastic used for the ubiquitous packaging of consumer goods.\r\n<em>“Today, roughly 6 per cent of global fossil-fuel consumption goes into making plastic, and that is expected to increase to 20 per cent by 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.</em>\r\n<em>Plastic has become the go-to for packaging goods…The share of plastics in packaging increased from 17 per cent in 2000 to 25 per cent in 2015, according to the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which has done extensive work on how to fix plastic ­pollution. Most of this is used once and discarded — costing $80bn to $120bn annually and flooding a global recycling system that simply cannot handle the stuff.”</em>\r\nWhilst awareness for recycling has picked up and indeed companies committing to using recycled packaging material is also growing, it is still an insignificant portion and beset with genuine technological challenges.\r\n<em>“Although few in the industry admit it, the reality is that plastic recycling rates globally are woefully low. About 8.3 billion tons of plastic has been produced since the 1950s, but research shows that only 9 per cent has been recycled. The remainder has ended up in landfill, the ocean or loose in the environment. High-income countries often ship their waste around the world for recycling but some of it is dumped instead, a problem that intensified last year when China closed its doors to waste imports. </em>\r\n<em>Unlike glass or metal, plastic packaging cannot be recycled ad infinitum because it degrades in quality. While scientists are working on so-called advanced recycling techniques to overcome this problem, they are not yet commercially viable. In the meantime, only 14 per cent of plastic packaging is even collected for recycling.</em>\r\n<em>.. “The real problem is that the technology to recycle plastic films just doesn’t exist,” says Mark Miodownik, a professor of material science at University College London, referring to the plastic in clingfilm, plastic bags, produce bags and multimaterial sachets. Then there is the toothpaste tube. Colgate-Palmolive, the world’s biggest toothpaste maker, has spent five years working on a recyclable tube. We currently use roughly 20 billion tubes annually, all of which end up in landfills or incinerated.</em>\r\n<em>...This reality has led green campaigners to argue that corporate pledges to make packaging recyclable are a cop-out. They would rather industry reduce the volume of plastic used instead. To date, only one big consumer goods company has committed to do so: Unilever aims to reduce annual use of plastic packaging by about 14 per cent by 2025. “It behoves the plastic industry to confuse people. Recycling is bullshit. It is a fig leaf of consumerism — a way to appease our guilt,” says Siân Sutherland, who co-founded the advocacy group A Plastic Planet.” </em>\r\nThere are initiatives to come up with alternatives which are relatively environment friendly.\r\n<em>“With $46m in venture funding, Israel-based start-up Tipa has developed a compostable flexible plastic film made of bio-materials that can be used to package everything from coffee beans to fresh carrots. </em>\r\n<em>Notpla, a London-based start-up, has pioneered an edible, home-­compostable film made of seaweed, which can be used to package drinks or sauces. Early trials have included handing out water pouches at the London marathon, Glenlivet whisky pods at a cocktail festival and replacing plastic ketchup packets in orders from Just Eat, the UK’s largest takeaway delivery platform.”</em>\r\nHowever, none of these are yet to be proven to be implemented at a scale that large consumer companies can deem cost effective. For now, change has to be driven by the conscious consumer who doesn’t mind a little bit of inconvenience or will pay extra for keeping the environment safe and clean for future generations.\r\n<em>“Sartre is one of the early customers of Loop, a new company that seeks to eliminate waste by teaming up with well-known brands such as Häagen-Dazs ice cream, Dove soap and Crest mouthwash to make their packaging reusable. Now in trials with tens of thousands of people in Paris and across the US, the company aims to create a radically new shopping model in which packaging becomes durable, reusable, valuable and sometimes even beautiful, instead of something to be immediately thrown away. The start-up is working both with multinationals such as Nestlé, Unilever, Procter &amp; Gamble and PepsiCo and the supermarkets that distribute their wares. </em>\r\n<em>The concept appealed to Sartre, who uses the service to teach her seven- and nine-year-old children about how their consumption habits affect the environment. “I’m pretty militant about it,” she admits. “I really want to show as a consumer that I don’t want any more plastic, and send a message to big companies that I’m ready to spend money to back another model of consumption that is more in line with my values.”  Sartre is in the vanguard of a burgeoning consumer movement against plastic packaging that has begun to spur change at the world’s biggest makers of food, drink and household products. Industry executives say that vocal customers have pushed concerns about climate change and pollution up the agenda to the point where big businesses can no longer ignore them.</em>', 'Can we break our addiction to plastic? The future of packaging', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2636-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:22:36', '2019-12-30 15:22:36', '', 2636, 'https://marcellus.in/2636-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2651, 1, '2019-12-30 15:25:33', '2019-12-30 15:25:33', 'If there’s one thing that has made smartphones the gamechanging tech of our lifetimes, it is the use of location data – think Amazon’s delivery efficiencies or ride sharing or food delivery, etc. Whilst all these are examples of how businesses and consumers alike have benefited from the technology, there is a dark side to it. In this superb piece of journalism, the authors of this interactive article, show how information about our whereabouts is not just being recorded but also sold as ‘insights’ thanks to our smartphones hanging onto our person all the time and the several apps whom we have knowingly or otherwise allowed to access, store and share our location data.\r\n<em>“At least 75 companies receive anonymous, precise location data from apps whose users enable location services to get local news and weather or other information, The Times found. Several of those businesses claim to track up to 200 million mobile devices in the United States — about half those in use last year. The database reviewed by The Times — a sample of information gathered in 2017 and held by one company — reveals people’s travels in startling detail, accurate to within a few yards and in some cases updated more than 14,000 times a day.</em>\r\n<em>These companies sell, use or analyze the data to cater to advertisers, retail outlets and even hedge funds seeking insights into consumer behavior. It’s a hot market, with sales of location-targeted advertising reaching an estimated $21 billion this year. IBM has gotten into the industry, with its purchase of the Weather Channel’s apps. The social network Foursquare remade itself as a location marketing company. Prominent investors in location start-ups include Goldman Sachs and Peter Thiel, the PayPal co-founder.</em>\r\n<em>“To evaluate location-sharing practices, The Times tested 20 apps, most of which had been flagged by researchers and industry insiders as potentially sharing the data. Together, 17 of the apps sent exact latitude and longitude to about 70 businesses. Precise location data from one app, WeatherBug on iOS, was received by 40 companies. When contacted by The Times, some of the companies that received that data described it as “unsolicited” or “inappropriate.”</em>\r\nMost users whilst having given permission to the app to access its location data are not completely aware of what they sign up for.\r\n<em>“Ms. Lee had given apps on her iPhone access to her location only for certain purposes — helping her find parking spaces, sending her weather alerts — and only if they did not indicate that the information would be used for anything else, she said. Ms. Magrin had allowed about a dozen apps on her Android phone access to her whereabouts for services like traffic notifications. But it is easy to share information without realizing it. Of the 17 apps that The Times saw sending precise location data, just three on iOS and one on Android told users in a prompt during the permission process that the information could be used for advertising.”</em>\r\n<em>Even industry insiders acknowledge that many people either don’t read those policies or may not fully understand their opaque language. Policies for apps that funnel location information to help investment firms, for instance, have said the data is used for market analysis, or simply shared for business purposes.</em>\r\n<em>“Most people don’t know what’s going on,” said Emmett Kilduff, the chief executive of Eagle Alpha, which sells data to financial firms and hedge funds. Mr. Kilduff said responsibility for complying with data-gathering regulations fell to the companies that collected it from people.</em>', 'Your Apps Know Where You Were Last Night, and They’re Not Keeping It Secret', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2634-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:25:33', '2019-12-30 15:25:33', '', 2634, 'https://marcellus.in/2634-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2652, 1, '2019-12-30 15:26:50', '2019-12-30 15:26:50', 'When the economist, Thomas Phillipon, moved to America in 1999, he found a country where high quality products were available at “dazzlingly cheap” prices. <em>“But over the past two decades, Mr Philippon writes in “The Great Reversal”, this paradise has been lost. Europeans now enjoy cheap cross-continent flights, high-street banking, and phone and internet services; Americans are often at the mercy of indifferent corporate giants.”</em>\r\nWhy have American consumers ended up getting a raw deal over the past decade? <em>“Much that has happened to the American economy since the 1990s has not been to the typical worker’s advantage. Growth in output, wages and productivity has slowed. Inequality has risen, as have the market share and profitability of the most dominant firms. Economics journals are packed with papers on these trends, many of which argue that the dominance of big firms bears some blame for other ills. Between 1987 and 2016 the share of employment accounted for by firms with over 5,000 employees rose from 28% to 34%. Between 1997 and 2012, this newspaper reported in 2016, the average share of revenues accounted for by the top four firms in each of 900 economic sectors grew from 26% to 32%.”</em>\r\nDepending on what their political persuasions are, two opposing camps of economists are taking divergent views on the rise of mega corporations in America. In the red corner so to speak – the corner in which Mr Phillipon sits, economists argue that <em>“domestic competition has been weakened by lax antitrust enforcement, anticompetitive practices and regulatory changes friendly to powerful firms.”</em>\r\nIn the blue corner, economists say <em>“that concentration is rising because of the success of superstar firms—highly innovative and productive companies that have shoved aside unfit competitors.”</em>\r\nTo the extent that these trends being seen in America are to a large extent also being replicated in India, it is essential that we get a grip on the underlying drivers of these trends. Which corner is correct – red or blue?\r\n<em>“If concentration is caused by ultra-productive firms outcompeting weaker rivals, then investment ought to rise as those firms scale up to exploit their competitive edge. Investment, however, has been disappointing across the American economy. In the 1990s a statistic called Tobin’s q (a measure of a firm’s market value relative to the cost of replacing its assets, named after an economist, James Tobin) closely tracked rates of net investment. A high Tobin’s q indicates that future profits are likely to be high relative to the cost of expanding production. That suggests leading firms should scale up or see a flood of investment by competitors seeking to divert part of that profit stream. In this millennium, however, investment has lagged behind what one would expect, given the level of Tobin’s q across the economy. A finer-grained analysis shows that the most concentrated sectors account for nearly all the investment shortfall.”</em> So it would appear that the reds’ argument has a lot going for it.\r\nThe red argument seems even stronger when you consider the evidence (or lack thereof) of superstar firms being drivers of productivity: <em>“If concentration is mainly caused by the triumph of superstar firms, it should be rising. Here the data are murkier. The authors of “The fall of the labour share and the rise of superstar firms”, a forthcoming paper in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, find a clear link between size and productivity (bigger firms are more productive) and between industry concentration and patenting (which they use as a proxy for innovation). But the relationship between concentration and measures of productivity is less clear, particularly outside manufacturing. Mr Philippon, on the other hand, finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between concentration and productivity in the 1990s but not more recently. What seems clear is that even as concentration has risen across the economy over the past two decades, the rate of productivity growth has not. If superstar firms are indeed a force for concentration, their unique capabilities have not translated into broader gains for the American economy.”</em>\r\nFor those of us living in India, Phillipon’s research points to a pattern of behaviour by large American firms which echoes what we see in India on a daily basis: <em>“America’s tech giants have gobbled up competitors and spent lavishly on political donations and lobbying. There is no guarantee that superstars, having achieved dominance, will defend it through innovation and investment rather than anti-competitive behaviour.”</em>\r\nIn India, as in America, there are no easy answers to this political and economic capture. Not only will large, dominant, ambitious firms NOT give way because you and I don’t see the benefit of their dominance, it is not obvious that dismantling these firms will necessarily produce a more efficient economy. This is especially so in a poor country like India where cost of capital is high and, hence, a large company’s reinvestment of internal accruals gives it access to low cost capital.', 'Are anti-competitive firms killing American innovation?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2632-revision-v1', '', '', '2019-12-30 15:26:50', '2019-12-30 15:26:50', '', 2632, 'https://marcellus.in/2632-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2654, 1, '2020-01-02 05:26:09', '2020-01-02 05:26:09', '', 'Investor Centre', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'login', '', '', '2020-07-07 05:58:07', '2020-07-07 05:58:07', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?p=2654', 10, 'nav_menu_item', '', 0),
(2684, 1, '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '<div>Amongst many ‘looking back at the decade’ studies, this one is quite fascinating. A study by Innosight of the most transformative businesses of the decade inspired by the need to attach a purpose to business which then drives transformation.\r\n<em>“the Business Roundtable [in August] released a statement signed by 181 CEOs stating that serving shareholders can no longer be the main purpose of a corporation; rather, it needs to be about serving society, through innovation, commitment to a healthy environment and economic opportunity for all.</em>\r\n<em>Our aim was to identify the global companies that have achieved the highest-impact business transformations over the past decade, using the same methodology as our 2017 study. Our research team screened all the firms in the S&amp;P 500 and Global 2000 using three lenses:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>New growth: How successful has the company been at creating new products, services, new markets, and new business models? This includes our primary metric: the percentage of revenue outside the core that can be attributed to new growth areas.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Repositioning the core: How effectively has the company adapted its traditional core business to changes or disruptions in its markets, giving its legacy business new life?</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Financials: Has the company posted strong financial and stock market performance, or has it turned around its business from losses or slow growth to get back on track? We looked at revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate), profitability, and stock price CAGR during the transformation period, which was different for each firm.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Our initial phase of research identified 52 companies making substantial progress towards strategic transformation—merely 3% of the public companies in our data set. From this second-round list, an Innosight partner panel voted to narrow it down to 27 finalists. For the third round, the following companies were selected as the Transformation 20 and ranked by a panel of management experts</em>\r\nThe list features Netflix at the top and includes companies like Adobe, Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba on the one hand and the likes of Siemens, Philips. Schneider and Fujifilm on the other.\r\n<em>“Each of these companies developed new-growth businesses outside its traditional core  which have become a significant share of the overall business. However, we believe it’s the decision to infuse a higher purpose into the culture, one that guides strategic decisions and gives clarity to everyday tasks, that has propelled these companies to success.</em>\r\n<em>The #1 company, Netflix, is a case in point. In 2013, CEO Reed Hastings released an 11-page memo to employees and investors detailing a  commitment to move from just distributing content digitally to become a leading producer of original content that could win Emmys and Oscars. As the memo said, “We don’t and can’t compete on breadth with Comcast, Sky, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Sony, or Google. For us to be hugely successful we have to be a focused passion brand. Starbucks, not 7-Eleven. Southwest, not United. HBO, not Dish.” Since unveiling that new purpose, Netflix revenue has roughly tripled, its profits have multiplied 32-fold, and its stock CAGR has increased 57% annually, versus 11% for the S&amp;P 500.</em></div>', 'The Top 20 Business Transformations of the Last Decade', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2683-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '2020-01-06 04:47:43', '', 2683, 'https://marcellus.in/2683-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2685, 1, '2020-01-05 04:47:53', '2020-01-05 04:47:53', 'Softbank’s troubles don’t seem to be ending anytime soon. After the spectacular WeWork debacle, now fun and games have begun at another of its high-profile investments – Oyo, an aggregator of budget hotel rooms. Oyo is not only among the most valued privately-owned Indian companies and among the most successful startups alongside Flipkart and Ola, it is the foremost amongst them in terms of international expansion – it operates across 80 different countries. Hence, this story in the New York Times showing some questionable practices achieves relevance.\r\n<em>“Oyo offers rooms from unavailable hotels, such as those that have left its service, according to the company’s chief executive and nine of the current and former employees. That has the effect of inflating the number of rooms listed on Oyo’s site.</em>\r\n<em>Thousands of the rooms are from unlicensed hotels and guesthouses, its executives have acknowledged. To deter trouble from the authorities over the illegal rooms, Oyo sometimes gives free lodging to the police and other officials, according to nine of the current and former employees and internal WhatsApp messages viewed by The New York Times.</em>\r\n<em>Oyo has also imposed extra fees on hotels and declined to pay the hotels the full amounts they claimed they were owed, according to interviews with hotel owners and employees, emails, legal complaints and other documents viewed by The Times. Some hotel operators have sought to file criminal complaints against Oyo, which said it withheld payments primarily over the hotels’ customer service issues.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s a bubble that will burst,” said Saurabh Mukhopadhyay, a former Oyo operations manager in northern India who left the company in September.”</em>', 'At SoftBank\'s Jewel in India: \'Toxic\' Culture and Troubling Incidents', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'at-softbanks-jewel-in-india-toxic-culture-and-troubling-incidents', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:49:04', '2020-01-06 04:49:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2685', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2686, 1, '2020-01-06 04:49:04', '2020-01-06 04:49:04', 'Softbank’s troubles don’t seem to be ending anytime soon. After the spectacular WeWork debacle, now fun and games have begun at another of its high-profile investments – Oyo, an aggregator of budget hotel rooms. Oyo is not only among the most valued privately-owned Indian companies and among the most successful startups alongside Flipkart and Ola, it is the foremost amongst them in terms of international expansion – it operates across 80 different countries. Hence, this story in the New York Times showing some questionable practices achieves relevance.\r\n<em>“Oyo offers rooms from unavailable hotels, such as those that have left its service, according to the company’s chief executive and nine of the current and former employees. That has the effect of inflating the number of rooms listed on Oyo’s site.</em>\r\n<em>Thousands of the rooms are from unlicensed hotels and guesthouses, its executives have acknowledged. To deter trouble from the authorities over the illegal rooms, Oyo sometimes gives free lodging to the police and other officials, according to nine of the current and former employees and internal WhatsApp messages viewed by The New York Times.</em>\r\n<em>Oyo has also imposed extra fees on hotels and declined to pay the hotels the full amounts they claimed they were owed, according to interviews with hotel owners and employees, emails, legal complaints and other documents viewed by The Times. Some hotel operators have sought to file criminal complaints against Oyo, which said it withheld payments primarily over the hotels’ customer service issues.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s a bubble that will burst,” said Saurabh Mukhopadhyay, a former Oyo operations manager in northern India who left the company in September.”</em>', 'At SoftBank\'s Jewel in India: \'Toxic\' Culture and Troubling Incidents', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2685-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 04:49:04', '2020-01-06 04:49:04', '', 2685, 'https://marcellus.in/2685-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2688, 1, '2020-01-06 06:57:56', '2020-01-06 06:57:56', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 06:57:56', '2020-01-06 06:57:56', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2689, 1, '2020-01-06 06:59:12', '2020-01-06 06:59:12', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-06 06:59:12', '2020-01-06 06:59:12', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(2699, 1, '2020-01-07 06:03:05', '2020-01-07 06:03:05', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-07 06:03:05', '2020-01-07 06:03:05', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2701, 1, '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '<div><strong>With the money market continuing to show reluctance in terms of financing NBFCs, the balance sheet of the sector continues to shrink with obvious adverse consequences for the Indian economy. We suggest three remedies which the authorities should consider implementing in order to prevent the NBFC sector from unravelling further.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>The slide continues</strong>\r\nIn its recent report <em>‘Trend and Progress of Banking in India’</em>, the RBI has said that the asset quality of the NBFC sector has continued to deteriorate in the first half of FY2020. The banks are also suffering a similar fate; the RBI in its Dec, 2019 financial stability report stated that “<em>the gross NPAs of scheduled commercial banks may increase from 9.3% in Sep, 2019 to 9.9% in Sep, 2020 due to a change in macroeconomic scenario, marginal increase in slippages and the denominator effect of declining credit growth.</em>” This seemingly unsolvable problem of persistently high NPAs in India’s lending ecosystem has been further compounded by low credit growth (7.1% in 2019 – this is the second slowest pace of growth in the previous decade).  This has led to a unique situation – on one hand, the excess cash in India’s banking system is at Rs. 4 lakh crores – the highest since the post-demonetisation period and on the other hand we are seeing the second lowest credit growth (the lowest again being the post demonetisation period) in a decade.\r\n\r\n<strong>How did we get ourselves into such a mess?</strong>\r\nAt the heart of India’s economic slowdown is a failure of its financial system. This failure has two distinct drivers:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in crony capitalist lending by banks (public and private sector) which started around 12 years ago and which continued until 3-4 years ago. NPAs arising from this lending have amounted to nearly 15% of the Indian banking system’s assets and have destroyed the risk appetite of all Indian banks (public and private sector) for funding capex.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in NBFC lending in 2017 (driven by cheap availability of debt in the money market which in turn was a consequence of the excess liquidity generated by the events of Nov 2016) resulted in NBFCs financing low quality residential real estate developers along with pilferage of cash by the promoters of these NBFCs. The unravelling of IL&amp;FS in 2018 and Dewan Housing in 2019 was a symptom of this slipshod lending in 2017 &amp; 2018. With other NBFCs teetering on the brink, the money market has stopped financing all NBFCs barring 3 or 4 marquee names. The AA rated NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are now paying a 400-430 bps premium over benchmark yields compared to 300bps a year ago to access bank funding. As a result, the NBFCs have started shrinking their balance sheet size which in turn means that auto loans and home loans have been curtailed severely with obvious consequences for the Indian economy. For a more detailed account of this unravelling, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b40609da4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1b40609da4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797569000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGb167uTeEqTZVzE1j7ZPx1tGZFOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-rbi-can-reverse-the-nbfc-<wbr />crisis</a>.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs a result of the above, credit disbursal in the Indian economy is down 90% YOY i.e. the economy is running on minimal credit disbursal. For a more detailed account of this slowdown, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72fc9f99e3&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D72fc9f99e3%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHmYwlfa3qZBBFh_ly8WJDu54VLXA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>How can we get out of this mess?</strong>\r\nGiven that at the heart of this slowdown is the cancer in India’s lending ecosystem, it follows therefore that remedies must address this cancer. Given the multi-headed nature of the problem, multiple lines of attack must be pursued:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>Privatisation of Indian public sector banks:</u> Whilst the Indian government has repeatedly recapitalised public sector banks (injecting nearly US$50 billion over the last 5 years), it is still not clear whether: (a) the PSU banks’ balance sheets are in good shape with considerable doubts remaining on whether they have properly accounted for their lending to shaky NBFCs (post the ILFS crisis, credit to NBFCs as a % of overall banking credit has grown to almost 9% vs. 5.5% in the pre ILFS era as banks have replaced the CP and CD borrowing of these NBFCs) and other shady business houses; (b) barring a couple of high quality PSU banks, these banks have limited ability to hire adequately trained personnel and build high quality risk management systems. Whilst private sector banks have also suffered from high NPAs, the talent deficit is not as glaring in the private sector. For the banking system to move forward, the government must allow privatisation of PSU banks. The first step forward would be to privatise IDBI Bank. Interestingly, IDBI Bank was NOT nationalised by an act of Parliament and hence is a unique public sector bank whose privatisation does not need to be approved by Parliament. Furthermore, because it is a corporate bank – albeit with a challenged balance sheet – it will be an easier bank to privatise provided the government is realistic about what valuations such a sale might fetch. Once, IDBI is out of the way, the Government can try to see if a better-quality PSU bank like Bank of Baroda can be privatised at a superior valuation. In parallel, the Government needs to expedite the recently announced BPCL privatisation and the long-delayed privatisation of Air India. Without letting go of Government owned assets, it will be difficult for the Government to find the money required for the next steps outlined below.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>A “bad bank” for NBFCs:</u> Barring 3 or 4 prominent NBFCs, the rest of the sector is suffering from the money markets’ lack of faith in their balance sheets as evident from the fact that CPs of NBFCs and HFCs used to account for 23% of the investments of mutual funds and asset managers in the Sep, 2018 quarter, that number has now almost halved to 12%. Loaded up as these balance sheets are with loans to real estate developers, loans to homeowners whose flats have not been delivered (and probably will never be delivered), loans to SME owners whose collateral (shops, factories &amp; warehouses) is highly illiquid. By all accounts, NBFCs’ balance sheets are continuing the deterioration on a monthly basis – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd060c2bb9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfd060c2bb9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE34xi94QOAMjXS0bSFaRVXK6FypQ\">https://www.livemint.com/<wbr />industry/banking/nbfcs-asset-<wbr />quality-continues-to-<wbr />deteriorate-11577210758437.<wbr />html</a>. The RBI Governor has said that the central bank is doing a deep dive into the balance sheet of NBFCs to identify such rotten assets. Identification alone however won’t be enough. These rotten loans then have to be disposed off to a bad bank (or a “bad fund”). The Govt announced last month such a “bad fund” but gave it a corpus of only US$3.5billion and strangely asked for the monies to be directed towards beleaguered real estate developers rather than for the purchase of bad assets (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=972645bbe6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D972645bbe6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEhuArX_2JL4xnRElbMX1_gJT0Ztw\">https://economictimes.<wbr />indiatimes.com/wealth/real-<wbr />estate/have-a-house-in-a-<wbr />stalled-project-heres-all-you-<wbr />need-to-know-about-nirmala-<wbr />sitharamans-realty-und/<wbr />articleshow/71953951.cms</a>). This fund needs far more capital and that capital needs to be used to purchase weak assets which are in workout mode. The question is how much more?\r\n\r\nNBFCs’ NPAs which have remained doubtful for over 2 years (i.e. loans which are highly likely to be a 100% write-off) amounts to nearly 2.5% of their loans outstanding. That amounts to around US$10 billion. To our mind, this is the minimum corpus this fund needs to be able to absorb the lowest quality assets from the balance sheet of weak NBFCs. Ideally, the fund needs to have twice this corpus because it is highly likely that the NBFCs’ current balance sheets understate the scale of the bad loans sitting on their books. Ideally, therefore the “bad fund” needs US$20 billion. In return for being willing to buy these bad assets, the “bad fund” should have a backstop arrangement with the Government that: (a) these bad loans will NOT be subject to the IBC process as that process does not seem to work for lenders (more details given below); and (b) the Government will provide a minimum assured rate of return to investors in the fund. Subject to these two criteria and subject to appropriate oversight of the Investment Committee of the bad fund, foreign investors would be willing to provide capital to the bad fund.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>Clarifying the bankruptcy process for NBFCs and for real estate developers:</u> So far, the IBC process even for conventional borrowers has had mixed success at best. As described by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman in their recent paper <em>“whereas the law specified that cases should be resolved within 270 days, completed cases have actually taken an average of 409 days so far. And progress is even slower in the larger cases, which account for the bulk of the bad loan amounts. More than two years after the RBI referred 12 large debtors to the IBC only half of these cases have been resolved, mostly in the steel sector. Consider the big picture. Only Rs. 2 lakh crore has been resolved through the IBC so far (with recoveries of just Rs. 83,000 crore), a small fraction of the initial stock of NPAs. At this rate, it will take a very, very long time to solve the bad debt problem. And the current rate of resolution actually overstates the prospects, since most of the bankruptcies processed by the IBC so far have been relatively straightforward cases, such as steel producers caught out by downturns in global steel prices….More complex cases, especially those of the independent power producers, which account for a large portion of stressed assets, are still far away from any resolution.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor the Financial Services sector, the IBC situation will be even more complicated as it is not clear from a legal perspective how the rights of a bond holder (who has lent money to an NBFC with specific loans being offered to her as collateral) can be overridden by the waterfall structure mandated by the IBC. This lacuna looks likely to result in prolonged litigation as secured creditors (bondholders), unsecured creditors and depositors fight it out in court. India cannot afford to get into this sort of prolonged legal mess. The Government must step in and in collaboration with the appropriate regulators clarify the law rather than letting the courts establish the case law through trial &amp; error over the next several years. Without legal clarity on this matter, it is not clear that the first two panaceas identified above will work and without the first two panaceas it is not clear, we will get out of the economic mess we find ourselves in.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Tej Shah are CIO and Portfolio Counsellor respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d8ffa14b61&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd8ffa14b61%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLTe5-JtpdOz_oMISH2oivXUOEug\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>).</em></div>\r\n<div>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bc4bc07dd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0bc4bc07dd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEW2QHeN92YbKMcO41QmG7KesYXTg\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'How Can the NBFC Sector\'s Ongoing Slide be Reversed?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2700-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '2020-01-09 03:53:59', '', 2700, 'https://marcellus.in/2700-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2702, 1, '2020-01-09 03:54:04', '2020-01-09 03:54:04', '<div><strong>With the money market continuing to show reluctance in terms of financing NBFCs, the balance sheet of the sector continues to shrink with obvious adverse consequences for the Indian economy. We suggest three remedies which the authorities should consider implementing in order to prevent the NBFC sector from unravelling further.</strong>\n\n<strong>The slide continues</strong>\nIn its recent report <em>‘Trend and Progress of Banking in India’</em>, the RBI has said that the asset quality of the NBFC sector has continued to deteriorate in the first half of FY2020. The banks are also suffering a similar fate; the RBI in its Dec, 2019 financial stability report stated that “<em>the gross NPAs of scheduled commercial banks may increase from 9.3% in Sep, 2019 to 9.9% in Sep, 2020 due to a change in macroeconomic scenario, marginal increase in slippages and the denominator effect of declining credit growth.</em>” This seemingly unsolvable problem of persistently high NPAs in India’s lending ecosystem has been further compounded by low credit growth (7.1% in 2019 – this is the second slowest pace of growth in the previous decade).  This has led to a unique situation – on one hand, the excess cash in India’s banking system is at Rs. 4 lakh crores – the highest since the post-demonetisation period and on the other hand we are seeing the second lowest credit growth (the lowest again being the post demonetisation period) in a decade.\n\n<strong>How did we get ourselves into such a mess?</strong>\nAt the heart of India’s economic slowdown is a failure of its financial system. This failure has two distinct drivers:\n<ol>\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in crony capitalist lending by banks (public and private sector) which started around 12 years ago and which continued until 3-4 years ago. NPAs arising from this lending have amounted to nearly 15% of the Indian banking system’s assets and have destroyed the risk appetite of all Indian banks (public and private sector) for funding capex.</li>\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in NBFC lending in 2017 (driven by cheap availability of debt in the money market which in turn was a consequence of the excess liquidity generated by the events of Nov 2016) resulted in NBFCs financing low quality residential real estate developers along with pilferage of cash by the promoters of these NBFCs. The unravelling of IL&amp;FS in 2018 and Dewan Housing in 2019 was a symptom of this slipshod lending in 2017 &amp; 2018. With other NBFCs teetering on the brink, the money market has stopped financing all NBFCs barring 3 or 4 marquee names. The AA rated NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are now paying a 400-430 bps premium over benchmark yields compared to 300bps a year ago to access bank funding. As a result, the NBFCs have started shrinking their balance sheet size which in turn means that auto loans and home loans have been curtailed severely with obvious consequences for the Indian economy. For a more detailed account of this unravelling, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b40609da4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1b40609da4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797569000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGb167uTeEqTZVzE1j7ZPx1tGZFOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-rbi-can-reverse-the-nbfc-<wbr />crisis</a>.</li>\n</ol>\nAs a result of the above, credit disbursal in the Indian economy is down 90% YOY i.e. the economy is running on minimal credit disbursal. For a more detailed account of this slowdown, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72fc9f99e3&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D72fc9f99e3%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHmYwlfa3qZBBFh_ly8WJDu54VLXA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\n\n<strong>How can we get out of this mess?</strong>\nGiven that at the heart of this slowdown is the cancer in India’s lending ecosystem, it follows therefore that remedies must address this cancer. Given the multi-headed nature of the problem, multiple lines of attack must be pursued:\n<ol>\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>Privatisation of Indian public sector banks:</u> Whilst the Indian government has repeatedly recapitalised public sector banks (injecting nearly US$50 billion over the last 5 years), it is still not clear whether: (a) the PSU banks’ balance sheets are in good shape with considerable doubts remaining on whether they have properly accounted for their lending to shaky NBFCs (post the ILFS crisis, credit to NBFCs as a % of overall banking credit has grown to almost 9% vs. 5.5% in the pre ILFS era as banks have replaced the CP and CD borrowing of these NBFCs) and other shady business houses; (b) barring a couple of high quality PSU banks, these banks have limited ability to hire adequately trained personnel and build high quality risk management systems. Whilst private sector banks have also suffered from high NPAs, the talent deficit is not as glaring in the private sector. For the banking system to move forward, the government must allow privatisation of PSU banks. The first step forward would be to privatise IDBI Bank. Interestingly, IDBI Bank was NOT nationalised by an act of Parliament and hence is a unique public sector bank whose privatisation does not need to be approved by Parliament. Furthermore, because it is a corporate bank – albeit with a challenged balance sheet – it will be an easier bank to privatise provided the government is realistic about what valuations such a sale might fetch. Once, IDBI is out of the way, the Government can try to see if a better-quality PSU bank like Bank of Baroda can be privatised at a superior valuation. In parallel, the Government needs to expedite the recently announced BPCL privatisation and the long-delayed privatisation of Air India. Without letting go of Government owned assets, it will be difficult for the Government to find the money required for the next steps outlined below.</li>\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>A “bad bank” for NBFCs:</u> Barring 3 or 4 prominent NBFCs, the rest of the sector is suffering from the money markets’ lack of faith in their balance sheets as evident from the fact that CPs of NBFCs and HFCs used to account for 23% of the investments of mutual funds and asset managers in the Sep, 2018 quarter, that number has now almost halved to 12%. Loaded up as these balance sheets are with loans to real estate developers, loans to homeowners whose flats have not been delivered (and probably will never be delivered), loans to SME owners whose collateral (shops, factories &amp; warehouses) is highly illiquid. By all accounts, NBFCs’ balance sheets are continuing the deterioration on a monthly basis – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd060c2bb9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfd060c2bb9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE34xi94QOAMjXS0bSFaRVXK6FypQ\">https://www.livemint.com/<wbr />industry/banking/nbfcs-asset-<wbr />quality-continues-to-<wbr />deteriorate-11577210758437.<wbr />html</a>. The RBI Governor has said that the central bank is doing a deep dive into the balance sheet of NBFCs to identify such rotten assets. Identification alone however won’t be enough. These rotten loans then have to be disposed off to a bad bank (or a “bad fund”). The Govt announced last month such a “bad fund” but gave it a corpus of only US$3.5billion and strangely asked for the monies to be directed towards beleaguered real estate developers rather than for the purchase of bad assets (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=972645bbe6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D972645bbe6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEhuArX_2JL4xnRElbMX1_gJT0Ztw\">https://economictimes.<wbr />indiatimes.com/wealth/real-<wbr />estate/have-a-house-in-a-<wbr />stalled-project-heres-all-you-<wbr />need-to-know-about-nirmala-<wbr />sitharamans-realty-und/<wbr />articleshow/71953951.cms</a>). This fund needs far more capital and that capital needs to be used to purchase weak assets which are in workout mode. The question is how much more?\n\nNBFCs’ NPAs which have remained doubtful for over 2 years (i.e. loans which are highly likely to be a 100% write-off) amounts to nearly 2.5% of their loans outstanding. That amounts to around US$10 billion. To our mind, this is the minimum corpus this fund needs to be able to absorb the lowest quality assets from the balance sheet of weak NBFCs. Ideally, the fund needs to have twice this corpus because it is highly likely that the NBFCs’ current balance sheets understate the scale of the bad loans sitting on their books. Ideally, therefore the “bad fund” needs US$20 billion. In return for being willing to buy these bad assets, the “bad fund” should have a backstop arrangement with the Government that: (a) these bad loans will NOT be subject to the IBC process as that process does not seem to work for lenders (more details given below); and (b) the Government will provide a minimum assured rate of return to investors in the fund. Subject to these two criteria and subject to appropriate oversight of the Investment Committee of the bad fund, foreign investors would be willing to provide capital to the bad fund.</li>\n 	<li><u>Clarifying the bankruptcy process for NBFCs and for real estate developers:</u> So far, the IBC process even for conventional borrowers has had mixed success at best. As described by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman in their recent paper <em>“whereas the law specified that cases should be resolved within 270 days, completed cases have actually taken an average of 409 days so far. And progress is even slower in the larger cases, which account for the bulk of the bad loan amounts. More than two years after the RBI referred 12 large debtors to the IBC only half of these cases have been resolved, mostly in the steel sector. Consider the big picture. Only Rs. 2 lakh crore has been resolved through the IBC so far (with recoveries of just Rs. 83,000 crore), a small fraction of the initial stock of NPAs. At this rate, it will take a very, very long time to solve the bad debt problem. And the current rate of resolution actually overstates the prospects, since most of the bankruptcies processed by the IBC so far have been relatively straightforward cases, such as steel producers caught out by downturns in global steel prices….More complex cases, especially those of the independent power producers, which account for a large portion of stressed assets, are still far away from any resolution.”</em>\n\nFor the Financial Services sector, the IBC situation will be even more complicated as it is not clear from a legal perspective how the rights of a bond holder (who has lent money to an NBFC with specific loans being offered to her as collateral) can be overridden by the waterfall structure mandated by the IBC. This lacuna looks likely to result in prolonged litigation as secured creditors (bondholders), unsecured creditors and depositors fight it out in court. India cannot afford to get into this sort of prolonged legal mess. The Government must step in and in collaboration with the appropriate regulators clarify the law rather than letting the courts establish the case law through trial &amp; error over the next several years. Without legal clarity on this matter, it is not clear that the first two panaceas identified above will work and without the first two panaceas it is not clear, we will get out of the economic mess we find ourselves in.</li>\n</ol>\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Tej Shah are CIO and Portfolio Counsellor respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d8ffa14b61&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd8ffa14b61%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLTe5-JtpdOz_oMISH2oivXUOEug\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>).</em></div>\n<div>\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bc4bc07dd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0bc4bc07dd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEW2QHeN92YbKMcO41QmG7KesYXTg\">https://marcellus.in</a></div>', 'How Can the NBFC Sector\'s Ongoing Slide be Reversed?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2700-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-01-09 03:54:04', '2020-01-09 03:54:04', '', 2700, 'https://marcellus.in/2700-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2703, 1, '2020-01-08 03:54:25', '2020-01-08 03:54:25', '<div><strong>With the money market continuing to show reluctance in terms of financing NBFCs, the balance sheet of the sector continues to shrink with obvious adverse consequences for the Indian economy. We suggest three remedies which the authorities should consider implementing in order to prevent the NBFC sector from unravelling further.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>The slide continues</strong>\r\nIn its recent report <em>‘Trend and Progress of Banking in India’</em>, the RBI has said that the asset quality of the NBFC sector has continued to deteriorate in the first half of FY2020. The banks are also suffering a similar fate; the RBI in its Dec, 2019 financial stability report stated that “<em>the gross NPAs of scheduled commercial banks may increase from 9.3% in Sep, 2019 to 9.9% in Sep, 2020 due to a change in macroeconomic scenario, marginal increase in slippages and the denominator effect of declining credit growth.</em>” This seemingly unsolvable problem of persistently high NPAs in India’s lending ecosystem has been further compounded by low credit growth (7.1% in 2019 – this is the second slowest pace of growth in the previous decade).  This has led to a unique situation – on one hand, the excess cash in India’s banking system is at Rs. 4 lakh crores – the highest since the post-demonetisation period and on the other hand we are seeing the second lowest credit growth (the lowest again being the post demonetisation period) in a decade.\r\n\r\n<strong>How did we get ourselves into such a mess?</strong>\r\nAt the heart of India’s economic slowdown is a failure of its financial system. This failure has two distinct drivers:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in crony capitalist lending by banks (public and private sector) which started around 12 years ago and which continued until 3-4 years ago. NPAs arising from this lending have amounted to nearly 15% of the Indian banking system’s assets and have destroyed the risk appetite of all Indian banks (public and private sector) for funding capex.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\">The surge in NBFC lending in 2017 (driven by cheap availability of debt in the money market which in turn was a consequence of the excess liquidity generated by the events of Nov 2016) resulted in NBFCs financing low quality residential real estate developers along with pilferage of cash by the promoters of these NBFCs. The unravelling of IL&amp;FS in 2018 and Dewan Housing in 2019 was a symptom of this slipshod lending in 2017 &amp; 2018. With other NBFCs teetering on the brink, the money market has stopped financing all NBFCs barring 3 or 4 marquee names. The AA rated NBFCs and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) are now paying a 400-430 bps premium over benchmark yields compared to 300bps a year ago to access bank funding. As a result, the NBFCs have started shrinking their balance sheet size which in turn means that auto loans and home loans have been curtailed severely with obvious consequences for the Indian economy. For a more detailed account of this unravelling, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1b40609da4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1b40609da4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797569000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGb167uTeEqTZVzE1j7ZPx1tGZFOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />the-rbi-can-reverse-the-nbfc-<wbr />crisis</a>.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs a result of the above, credit disbursal in the Indian economy is down 90% YOY i.e. the economy is running on minimal credit disbursal. For a more detailed account of this slowdown, read: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=72fc9f99e3&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D72fc9f99e3%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHmYwlfa3qZBBFh_ly8WJDu54VLXA\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />marcellus-dissecting-the-<wbr />economic-slowdown-in-india/</a>\r\n\r\n<strong>How can we get out of this mess?</strong>\r\nGiven that at the heart of this slowdown is the cancer in India’s lending ecosystem, it follows therefore that remedies must address this cancer. Given the multi-headed nature of the problem, multiple lines of attack must be pursued:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>Privatisation of Indian public sector banks:</u> Whilst the Indian government has repeatedly recapitalised public sector banks (injecting nearly US$50 billion over the last 5 years), it is still not clear whether: (a) the PSU banks’ balance sheets are in good shape with considerable doubts remaining on whether they have properly accounted for their lending to shaky NBFCs (post the ILFS crisis, credit to NBFCs as a % of overall banking credit has grown to almost 9% vs. 5.5% in the pre ILFS era as banks have replaced the CP and CD borrowing of these NBFCs) and other shady business houses; (b) barring a couple of high quality PSU banks, these banks have limited ability to hire adequately trained personnel and build high quality risk management systems. Whilst private sector banks have also suffered from high NPAs, the talent deficit is not as glaring in the private sector. For the banking system to move forward, the government must allow privatisation of PSU banks. The first step forward would be to privatise IDBI Bank. Interestingly, IDBI Bank was NOT nationalised by an act of Parliament and hence is a unique public sector bank whose privatisation does not need to be approved by Parliament. Furthermore, because it is a corporate bank – albeit with a challenged balance sheet – it will be an easier bank to privatise provided the government is realistic about what valuations such a sale might fetch. Once, IDBI is out of the way, the Government can try to see if a better-quality PSU bank like Bank of Baroda can be privatised at a superior valuation. In parallel, the Government needs to expedite the recently announced BPCL privatisation and the long-delayed privatisation of Air India. Without letting go of Government owned assets, it will be difficult for the Government to find the money required for the next steps outlined below.</li>\r\n 	<li value=\"NaN\"><u>A “bad bank” for NBFCs:</u> Barring 3 or 4 prominent NBFCs, the rest of the sector is suffering from the money markets’ lack of faith in their balance sheets as evident from the fact that CPs of NBFCs and HFCs used to account for 23% of the investments of mutual funds and asset managers in the Sep, 2018 quarter, that number has now almost halved to 12%. Loaded up as these balance sheets are with loans to real estate developers, loans to homeowners whose flats have not been delivered (and probably will never be delivered), loans to SME owners whose collateral (shops, factories &amp; warehouses) is highly illiquid. By all accounts, NBFCs’ balance sheets are continuing the deterioration on a monthly basis – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fd060c2bb9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfd060c2bb9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE34xi94QOAMjXS0bSFaRVXK6FypQ\">https://www.livemint.com/<wbr />industry/banking/nbfcs-asset-<wbr />quality-continues-to-<wbr />deteriorate-11577210758437.<wbr />html</a>. The RBI Governor has said that the central bank is doing a deep dive into the balance sheet of NBFCs to identify such rotten assets. Identification alone however won’t be enough. These rotten loans then have to be disposed off to a bad bank (or a “bad fund”). The Govt announced last month such a “bad fund” but gave it a corpus of only US$3.5billion and strangely asked for the monies to be directed towards beleaguered real estate developers rather than for the purchase of bad assets (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=972645bbe6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D972645bbe6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEhuArX_2JL4xnRElbMX1_gJT0Ztw\">https://economictimes.<wbr />indiatimes.com/wealth/real-<wbr />estate/have-a-house-in-a-<wbr />stalled-project-heres-all-you-<wbr />need-to-know-about-nirmala-<wbr />sitharamans-realty-und/<wbr />articleshow/71953951.cms</a>). This fund needs far more capital and that capital needs to be used to purchase weak assets which are in workout mode. The question is how much more?\r\n\r\nNBFCs’ NPAs which have remained doubtful for over 2 years (i.e. loans which are highly likely to be a 100% write-off) amounts to nearly 2.5% of their loans outstanding. That amounts to around US$10 billion. To our mind, this is the minimum corpus this fund needs to be able to absorb the lowest quality assets from the balance sheet of weak NBFCs. Ideally, the fund needs to have twice this corpus because it is highly likely that the NBFCs’ current balance sheets understate the scale of the bad loans sitting on their books. Ideally, therefore the “bad fund” needs US$20 billion. In return for being willing to buy these bad assets, the “bad fund” should have a backstop arrangement with the Government that: (a) these bad loans will NOT be subject to the IBC process as that process does not seem to work for lenders (more details given below); and (b) the Government will provide a minimum assured rate of return to investors in the fund. Subject to these two criteria and subject to appropriate oversight of the Investment Committee of the bad fund, foreign investors would be willing to provide capital to the bad fund.</li>\r\n 	<li><u>Clarifying the bankruptcy process for NBFCs and for real estate developers:</u> So far, the IBC process even for conventional borrowers has had mixed success at best. As described by Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman in their recent paper <em>“whereas the law specified that cases should be resolved within 270 days, completed cases have actually taken an average of 409 days so far. And progress is even slower in the larger cases, which account for the bulk of the bad loan amounts. More than two years after the RBI referred 12 large debtors to the IBC only half of these cases have been resolved, mostly in the steel sector. Consider the big picture. Only Rs. 2 lakh crore has been resolved through the IBC so far (with recoveries of just Rs. 83,000 crore), a small fraction of the initial stock of NPAs. At this rate, it will take a very, very long time to solve the bad debt problem. And the current rate of resolution actually overstates the prospects, since most of the bankruptcies processed by the IBC so far have been relatively straightforward cases, such as steel producers caught out by downturns in global steel prices….More complex cases, especially those of the independent power producers, which account for a large portion of stressed assets, are still far away from any resolution.”</em>\r\n\r\nFor the Financial Services sector, the IBC situation will be even more complicated as it is not clear from a legal perspective how the rights of a bond holder (who has lent money to an NBFC with specific loans being offered to her as collateral) can be overridden by the waterfall structure mandated by the IBC. This lacuna looks likely to result in prolonged litigation as secured creditors (bondholders), unsecured creditors and depositors fight it out in court. India cannot afford to get into this sort of prolonged legal mess. The Government must step in and in collaboration with the appropriate regulators clarify the law rather than letting the courts establish the case law through trial &amp; error over the next several years. Without legal clarity on this matter, it is not clear that the first two panaceas identified above will work and without the first two panaceas it is not clear, we will get out of the economic mess we find ourselves in.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Tej Shah are CIO and Portfolio Counsellor respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d8ffa14b61&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd8ffa14b61%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLTe5-JtpdOz_oMISH2oivXUOEug\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>).</em></div>\r\n<div>\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0bc4bc07dd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0bc4bc07dd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578627797570000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEW2QHeN92YbKMcO41QmG7KesYXTg\">https://marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong></div>\r\n<div></div>', 'How Can the NBFC Sector\'s Ongoing Slide be Reversed?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-can-the-nbfc-sectors-ongoing-slide-be-reversed', '', '', '2020-01-09 03:55:59', '2020-01-09 03:55:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2703', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(2725, 1, '2020-01-13 04:51:47', '2020-01-13 04:51:47', 'Every winter, the problem of air pollution in Indian cities gets exacerbated with severe consequences on both short-term and long-term health of their residents. Whilst these consequences are bordering on survival issues, a new finding says improving air quality can in fact help societies prosper. This article in the Vox talks about a rumoured gas leak which prompted schools in a Los Angeles area to install air filters actually resulted in increasing test scores meaningfully and sustainably. In a research paper, NYU’s Michael Gilraine shows the results comparing test scores of schools in that area to those outside who did not experience any improvement in air quality. The difference is significant even comparable to the difference made by smaller class sizes.\r\n<em>“An emergency situation that turned out to be mostly a false alarm led a lot of schools in Los Angeles to install air filters, and something strange happened: Test scores went up. By a lot. And the gains were sustained in the subsequent year rather than fading away. That’s what NYU’s Michael Gilraine finds in a new working paper titled “Air Filters, Pollution, and Student Achievement” that looks at the surprising consequences of the Aliso Canyon gas leak in 2015. The impact of the air filters is strikingly large given what a simple change we’re talking about. The school district didn’t reengineer the school buildings or make dramatic education reforms; they just installed $700 commercially available filters that you could plug into any room in the country.</em>\r\n<em>…Strikingly, however, air testing conducted around the time of the installation of the filters shows that the schools didn’t actually have abnormally high levels of the kinds of pollution that are normally associated with natural gas. Methane is lighter than air, and by the time the filters were installed — nearly three months after the leak — the extra pollution caused was all the way up in the sky and not affecting school buildings.</em>\r\n<em>Consequently, the installation of the filters served not to remove extra contamination caused by the leak, but simply to clean up the normal amount of background indoor air pollution present in the Valley. That lets Gilraine estimate the difference in student performance for schools just inside the boundary compared to those just outside. He finds that math scores went up by 0.20 standard deviations and English scores by 0.18 standard deviations, and the results hold up even when you control for “detailed student demographics, including residential ZIP Code fixed effects that help control for a student’s exposure to pollution at home.”</em>\r\n<em>For context, this is comparable in scale to some of the most optimistic studies on the potential benefits of smaller class sizes, with Alan Krueger finding that cutting class size by a third leads to a 0.22 standard deviation improvement in academic performance. Other studies find smaller or even negative effects (because adding teachers means bringing in less experienced or less effective ones), but even accepting the positive findings, it costs much more than $700 per classroom to achieve class size reductions of that scale.”</em>', 'Installing air filters in classrooms has surprisingly large educational benefits', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2724-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-13 04:51:47', '2020-01-13 04:51:47', '', 2724, 'https://marcellus.in/2724-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2825, 1, '2020-01-26 05:25:41', '2020-01-26 05:25:41', 'This article draws an interest parallel between capital allocation in the corporate world and that in the world of football in the specific context of GE and Manchester United. The author contends that <em>“Like GE, the club once dominated its field but has lately chucked away its cash on terrible acquisitions.”</em>\r\nSo, how did these two institutions lose their way? At the heart of the problem seems the genius of their all-conquering leaders who – when they are replaced – cannot seem to be replaced with equally talented leaders: <em>“Both are storied giants used to dominating their respective fields, who enjoyed their heyday in the 1990s. In Alex Ferguson and Jack Welch respectively, they had dominant leaders who set an all-but-impossible standard to follow (even if there are questions about what they left to their unfortunate successors).”</em>\r\nThe successors to Welch and Ferguson screwed up on capital allocations says the author: <em>“Where Man Utd has spent hundreds of millions of pounds over the past eight years buying players such as French midfielder Paul Pogba and Belgian attacker Romelu Lukaku, GE went on a spending spree that included the 12.4 billion-euro ($13.8 billion) acquisition of Alstom SA’s power generation business. That deal’s entire value was ultimately written down.</em>\r\n<em>When Jeff Immelt took over as GE’s chief executive officer in 2001, it was the biggest company in the S&amp;P 500. Over his 16-year tenure, he spent some $200 billion buying companies, yet shareholders enjoyed annual returns of just 0.5%. In the same period, the S&amp;P 500 was averaging returns of 7.4% a year.</em>\r\n<em>Man Utd is much the same. After winning 12 English Premier League titles in 20 years, the club has won just one championship since its 2012 initial public offering. That’s even as it spent a net 740 million pounds ($965 million) through June 2019 buying new players. In the same period, its bitter rival Liverpool FC spent spent less than half that amount, yet was crowned European champion last year and is running away with the Premier League this season.”</em>\r\nFootball fall and investors in listed companies often whine that their club/companies are NOT investing enough. In this simplistic view of the world, capex by itself is seen as a virtuous activity. The author argues that the quality of capex is more important than the quantity: <em>“The problem isn’t that Man Utd has skimped on player investment — the numbers show that it hasn’t, at least in recent years. But it has invested poorly. A useful point of comparison is Juventus, which occupies a similar status in Italy, having won more Italian championships, known as Scudettos, than any other team.</em>\r\n<em>After the Turin-based club, run by the same Agnelli family that controls Fiat Chrysler Automotive NV, sold Pogba to Man Utd for 89 million pounds, it reinvested the proceeds in a string of players who subsequently led the team to the final of the Champions League, Europe’s top club competition. In the 12 months after Pogba’s departure, Juventus’s share price climbed 141%....”</em>', 'Manchester United Is the General Electric of Football', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'manchester-united-is-the-general-electric-of-football', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:28:39', '2020-01-27 05:28:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2825', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2727, 1, '2020-01-16 09:42:51', '2020-01-16 09:42:51', '', 'Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_creating_consistent-compounders_jan-2020', '', '', '2020-01-16 09:42:51', '2020-01-16 09:42:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(2728, 1, '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Watch the evolution of Consistent Compounder Investment Philosophy</strong></p>\r\n<a href=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XKpz8ZdVIo&amp;feature=youtu.be noopener\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-848\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Video-Title-1-300x170.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"700\" height=\"396\" /></a>\r\n<h2></h2>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<h2>An Overview</h2>\r\nAt Marcellus, our purpose is to influence efficient capital allocation in the <a href=\"/blogs/marcellus-the-nifty-is-no-longer-a-play-on-the-indian-economy/\">Indian economy</a>. We do this by channelling household savings towards high quality companies with long track records of efficient capital allocation, who in turn deliver superior returns to savers.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Our quantitative frameworks which use a combination of forensic accounting and capital allocation assessment define our investible universe.</li>\r\n 	<li>Our experienced investment team through in-depth primary research constructs a portfolio of companies with deep competitive moats</li>\r\n 	<li>We then hold these companies for long periods of time with little or no churn which allows us to capture the benefits of long term compounding and deliver superior returns</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe are delighted to inform that our first product - <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Creating_Consistent-Compounders_Jan-2020.pdf\">Consistent Compounders PMS</a> is now live and taking in investments.\r\n\r\nIf you are interested in knowing more about the same, please leave your details <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/contact-us/\">here</a>', 'Investment Philosophy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '38-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '2020-01-16 09:43:31', '', 38, 'https://marcellus.in/38-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2729, 1, '2020-01-17 05:03:40', '2020-01-17 05:03:40', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-17 05:03:40', '2020-01-17 05:03:40', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2730, 1, '2020-01-18 02:27:05', '2020-01-18 02:27:05', '<strong>Given that each year 60 companies enter the BSE500, there are indeed strong economic drivers which help well run small firms explode into prominence. From an investors’ </strong><strong>viewpoint, in the three-year run-up to entering the BSE500, new entrants outperform the index by a CAGR of 40%, indicating significant return opportunity before these stocks are discovered by institutional investors. However, at the same time, high promoter-dependency, smaller size, a propensity for accounting mischief and relatively shorter operating history necessitates much higher degree of research rigour and diligence from investors. At Marcellus, </strong><strong>the key objective of our small cap “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with stellar track records of capital allocation, clean accounts and high growth potential. We expect our robust in-house forensic and capital allocation frameworks together with our team’s experience in forensic accounting and our vast network of primary data sources to help us achieve this objective.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>The case for small-cap investing</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Successful niche focussed MSMEs have been the biggest wealth creators of the past decade</strong>\r\n\r\nThe best performing stocks on earnings growth as well as share price returns in recent years have been names relatively unknown until a decade ago. For instance, of the top 10% of best performing stocks over FY09-19, <u>~80% are stocks which ranked below the 500<sup>th</sup> largest stock in India on market capitalisation</u> as at March 2009-end. This is also evident in the significant churn in BSE500 (average ~12% p.a. over the last ten years) as these high performing small caps replace the incumbent laggards. Given that each year nearly 60 new names enter the BSE500, such a trend points towards underlying economic drivers which help well run small firms explode into prominence.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2734 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"806\" height=\"445\" />\r\n\r\nThe three common stories across these champion small caps which have grown from near obscurity to prominence over the last decade have been: (i) <strong>Businesses that were earlier local in nature, became regional and finally gained national presence. </strong>The success template here has been to build a pan-India brand, a national distribution network and thereby chipping away market share from the unorganised local players and/or grow the addressable market pie (example – Kajaria Ceramics and La Opala). (ii) <strong>Businesses that were successful in replicating their leadership in one category across multiple categories. </strong>This has been driven by profitably deploying the cashflows from the core businesses into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment (examples – Supreme Industries, Astral Poly); and (iii) <strong>Businesses that were able to successfully capture a significant part of the global pie.</strong> These not only include export-oriented companies but also players able to substitute high level of imports into India (examples - Vinati Organics, AIA Engineering and Garware Technical Fibres). [Please note that the stocks named here are NOT necessarily part of our Little Champs Portfolio.]\r\n\r\nThese successful firms have mostly focussed on small niches within a much larger market. They have been able to build market dominance in their niches, command pricing power, expand the niches and resultantly generate healthy earnings growth and returns on capital. The financial performance of these smaller firms has been clearly better than: (a) most mass-market companies; and (b) diversified large corporations.\r\n\r\n<strong>Disproportionate benefits in owning these companies before their ‘discovery’ </strong>\r\n\r\nFrom an investors’ viewpoint, more relevant than the churn in BSE500 is the returns that these entrants into the BSE500 produce as they fly into the index. As shown in the chart below, in the three-year run-up to entering the BSE500, entrants outperform the index by a CAGR of 40%!\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2735 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-011638.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"795\" height=\"366\" />\r\n\r\nThis return performance is not just a function of superior earnings growth delivered by these firms in the run-up, but also a result of their valuations getting re-rerated. When these stocks are small and still inventing the wheels of their business, they are largely unnoticed by the large investors’ and research analysts’ communities. This results in them trading at significant discounts to their larger counterparts. However, once they reach a particular size (say market capitalization above US$0.5 billion), they come under the ambit of more and more research analysts’ coverage and institutional investors’ ownership and thus move up the valuation band.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2736 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"303\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>But beware of the pitfalls</u></strong>\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying that not every small firm will be successful and the winners will be those who have: <strong>(a)</strong> the work ethic to grow the organisation whilst instilling a process oriented culture and orchestrating a devolution of power &amp; responsibilities to build scale; <strong>(b)</strong> the capital allocation skills to rationally and patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages; and <strong>(c)</strong> the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations with tight working capital cycles and lean cost structures.\r\n\r\nThere is only a narrow set of small cap companies that have been able to pass these tests and eventually generate significant shareholders’ wealth. On the other hand, there are more examples of small cap stocks that not only failed but also ended up destroying significant investor wealth.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2758 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/67.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"358\" />\r\n\r\nIn particular, the risks/hardships of investing in a small cap are due to the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Inordinate bet on the promoter’s acumen and integrity: </strong>There is relatively high dependence on promoter(s) as generally the level of institutionalisation is relatively low in the company given the stage of evolution. Hence the business acumen and integrity of the promoter(s) would play a defining role in the success/failure of these smaller companies.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Low analysts’ coverage necessitates deeper diligence:</strong> We highlighted earlier that low level of analysts’ coverage creates a ‘valuation gap’ in small cap stocks and thus creates a non-linear share price return for successful small-caps. At the same time, lack of analysts’ scrutiny necessitates the onus of deep diligence and research on the investors.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThis is also a key reason why the BSE Smallcap index has significantly <u>trailed</u> the Sensex, Nifty and BSE500 indices in generating risk adjusted returns over the last 10- 15 years. We find that this point – that there is no pre-ordained reward for owning small-cap stocks – is not properly appreciated by most investors.\r\n\r\n<b></b><strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2738 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-072356.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"792\" height=\"259\" /></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Marcellus Little Champs Investment process to navigate the tricky world of small caps</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be particularly sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of the accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30%) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimise the impact of trading costs.\r\n\r\nWe use the following process to build the Little Champs portfolio:\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2748 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-074739.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"423\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Using our in-house frameworks to shortlist high quality names:                                                                           </strong>We have developed the following rigorous screening frameworks to help shorten the large universe of ~1,200 small cap companies into a researchable universe of 40-50 companies.</li>\r\n 	<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1) Our forensic accounting framework: </strong>Evaluating the accounting quality of a company needs to be a cornerstone of any investment process in India. We at Marcellus have developed a set of 12 ratios that help to grade companies on their accounting quality. The selection of these ratios has been inspired by Howard M. Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting called ‘Financial Shenanigans’. These 12 forensic accounting ratios covers checks around key financial statement categories like income statement (revenue/ earnings manipulation), balance sheet (correct representation of assets/liabilities), cash pilferage and audit quality checks. Some of these key ratios and rationale are shown in the exhibit below. We look at the historical consolidated financial statements for the universe of firms. We first rank stocks on each of the twelve ratios and give a final decile-based pecking order on accounting quality for stocks – with D1 being the best on accounting quality and D10 being the worst. The top 5 deciles i.e. D1 to D5 are generally indicative of a company with good accounting quality/practices – we call D1 to D5 the ‘Zone of Quality’ whereas the bottom 30% i.e. D8 to D10 generally represent companies with questionable accounting practices – we call this the ‘Zone of Thuggery’.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2757 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/89.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"368\" /></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong>Our forensic accounting framework has proven to be a highly effective predictive tool. Over longer term, there has been a strong correlation between the accounting quality as suggested by our forensic model and the shareholders returns. For instance, the ‘Zone of quality’ has outperformed the ‘Zone of thuggery’ by a whopping 10% p.a. over CY16-19.\r\n\r\n<strong>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2756 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1112.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"392\" /></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>For more details on how we assess accounting quality,<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Little-Champs_Newsletter-Dec-2019-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> click here</a> for our December 2019 newsletter </em></strong>\r\n\r\n2.<b> Our competitive advantage/capital allocation framework </b>uses financial parameters like revenue growth, improvement in margin, working capital &amp; fixed assets turnover with certain thresholds on RoCE and net debt to rank the companies.<strong> Essentially, this framework helps us to identify companies which demonstrate ability to grow efficiently, generate cash and redeploy them to further grow – in essence, a self-sustaining cash machine. </strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2742 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073207.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"305\" height=\"238\" />\r\n\r\nWe have backtested the above frameworks for several years and the results have shown that the portfolio generated by the algorithm alone (i.e. without any human intervention) has not only expectedly outperformed the BSE Sensex (the benchmark) during periods of market downturn but also generally outperformed or matched the benchmark performance during market upturns. Given, the logical rule of compounding – i.e. if you fall less and rise equally - you reach higher – the framework has generated significant outperformance over December 2012-December 2018.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2743 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073420.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"827\" height=\"374\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>In-depth research and diligence from a seasoned team of analysts: </strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe stocks shortlisted by our screening frameworks are then taken up for deep dive research and diligence by the seven analysts in our team. Besides analysis of the published financials and other secondary data, we aim to build insights into the companies through interacting with a host of primary data network sources. Here, we draw upon our following strengths:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Forensic accounting skills – </strong>We have a deep pool of accounting talent in our team with every single one of our seven analysts being qualified Chartered Accountants and/or Chartered Financial Analysts who have cumulatively done more than 1,000 bespoke accounting projects over the last ten years.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Access to primary data and insights – </strong>The team has built a pan-India network of primary data sources which include dealers, distributors, promoters, ex-employees, customers, vendors etc.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nBesides getting comfort on the management’s integrity and corporate culture, our diligence is also focussed towards finding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, their track record of dealing with technological or competitive disruptions and the wisdom of their capital allocation decisions. Here, <strong>the lessons from Hermann Simon’s celebrated ‘Hidden Champions’ framework </strong>form an important part of our checklist for such qualitative assessment of stocks. This is particularly with regards to sources and sustainability of the competitive advantages (quality of market leadership, innovation, customer-orientation, work culture), management capability/continuity (organisational leadership, work culture) and capital allocation (focus, self-financing, soft diversification).<strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2744 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073633.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"791\" height=\"315\" /></strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><em>For more details on Simon’s Hidden Champions framework, refer our November 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Little-Champs_Newsletter-Nov-2019-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here</a>).</em></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>At this stage we bring down the 40-50 names shortlisted by our frameworks to around 15-20 names which we usually end up investing in. </strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Continuous monitoring and evaluation:                                                                                                                              </strong>The portfolio names are subject to continuous monitoring (keeping a tab on results, continuing to meet customers, competitors and suppliers of these companies whilst maintaining regular contact with management) of major developments. We do not put much weightage on short-term factors like weak quarterly earnings. However, we would not desist from reacting in case of any structural changes in the company like key management changes (where we think the new management is not of the same pedigree as the earlier one), any capital allocation decisions that seems out of order or any corporate governance steps that does not seem to be in the best interests of the minority shareholders.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong><u>Marcellus Little Champs portfolio characteristics and comparative analysis</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAs of today, we have a total of 14 stocks in our Little Champs portfolio with equity allocation of close to 88%. While our stock selection is purely bottom-focussed, no single sector constitutes &gt;20% of invested corpus.\r\n\r\nBacktesting results show that over the last 5 years (FY14-19) in a seemingly tough period for macro-economic environment and corporate earnings, the Little Champs portfolio has, on a median basis, delivered a net earnings CAGR of 22%. This earnings growth has been combined with a reasonably healthy average RoCE (pre-tax) of 20%. The exhibit below gives the key statistics for the Little Champs at the overall portfolio level.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2755 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"210\" />\r\n\r\nMost importantly, the earnings growth for Little Champs has been achieved without taking any big undue capital allocation bets. On an average, over the last five years, Little Champs have re-invested close to 60% of their cash back into business primarily through capex and, to a smaller extent, by acquiring other companies. This reinvestment rate is more or less similar to their small cap peers.\r\n\r\nHowever, the stark difference comes out when one compares the ‘source’ of cash. For Little Champs, superior RoCEs resulted in healthy operational cash flow which in turn has been utilized towards not only reinvesting in the business but bring down the debt levels to almost NIL. On the other hand, for the small cap peers, lower RoCE and consequent lower operational cash generation (60% of total cash raised), resulted in significant reliance on debt (&gt;20%). Besides the weak macros, meeting the debt servicing requirements has also been one of the key reasons for weak earnings growth of small cap companies over the last few years.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2754 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"783\" height=\"386\" />\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\r\n\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 28, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2747 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-074051-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"794\" height=\"339\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em> </em>', 'Introducing Little Champs – Marcellus’ Small Cap PMS', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'introducing-little-champs-marcellus-small-cap-pms', '', '', '2020-01-21 04:48:54', '2020-01-21 04:48:54', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2730', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(2748, 1, '2020-01-18 02:18:14', '2020-01-18 02:18:14', '', 'Annotation 2020-01-18 074739', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'annotation-2020-01-18-074739', '', '', '2020-01-18 02:18:14', '2020-01-18 02:18:14', '', 2730, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-074739.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(2798, 1, '2020-01-21 04:51:07', '2020-01-21 04:51:07', '<strong>45% of the stocks which were in the BSE500 ten years ago have exited the index since. The primary driver of these exits is shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation (the two are linked). In contrast, the number of companies which have significantly enriched their shareholders are a handful. Inspired by Howard Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting ‘Financial Shenanigans’ (fourth edition, 2018), we at Marcellus use 12 powerful forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting qualities of Indian companies. This framework has proved to be an effective predictive tool with strong correlation between its accounting quality results and investment returns. Besides these ratios, we also employ an exhaustive checklist for qualitative due diligence on accounts and corporate governance. In this newsletter, we also highlight a case study of how investors would could have avoided Amtek Auto using cues from its financial statements.</strong>\n\n<em>“It has been far safer to steal large sums with a pen than small sums with a gun” – Warren Buffet</em>\n\n<strong>Avoiding dubious companies is as important as identifying great companies</strong>\n\nIn our October 2019 newsletter on Little Champs, we highlighted that churn in the BSE500 is as high as 12% p.a. This high churn ratio signifies that most existing incumbents are unable to sustain their place in the index and, over the course of a decade, make way for more deserving candidates. A closer analysis of the stocks exiting the BSE500 over the last 5 to 10 years indicate that most exits had little to do with business downturns but were mainly due to corporate governance/accounting lapses and capital misallocations at these firms.\n\nIf one were to look at BSE500 as it stood in December 2009, out of the total 500 member stocks then, only 274 stocks continue to remain in the index. In other words, nearly 45% of the stocks have exited the index over the last ten years. On their way out, most of these stocks saw significant erosion in their shareholders’ wealth (on an average, the companies which exited the index have lost 40% of their December 2009 market cap). Hence, for every Bajaj Finance and Eicher Motors which significantly enriched their investors, there has been an Educomp and Lanco Infratech which left their minority shareholders high and dry.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2785 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"657\" height=\"238\" />\n\nWhile the number of companies which have generated enormous wealth for their shareholders are bound to be a handful, the number of companies which have destroyed shareholders’ wealth would be much more. Hence, the ability to stay away from dubious names is equally if not more important than the ability to discover a great company.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2786 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"651\" height=\"221\" />\n\n<strong>Evaluating accounting quality becomes all the more important for small caps</strong>\n\nWhile the reward is enormous for picking the right small cap stocks, the associated risks and rigour required are manifold compared to that in the large cap and even mid cap space for that matter. In particular, the risks/hardships of investing in a small cap are due to the following factors:\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Inordinate bet on the promoter’s integrity: </strong>There is relatively high dependence on promoter(s) as generally the level of institutionalisation is relatively low in the company given the stage of evolution. Hence the business acumen and integrity of the promoter(s) would play a defining role in the success/failure of these smaller companies.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Inadequate coverage by brokerage analysts necessitates deeper diligence: </strong>We highlighted in our October 2019 note that low level of analysts’ coverage creates a ‘valuation gap’ in small cap stocks and thus creates an opportunity for non-linear share price returns from successful small-caps. At the same time, lack of analysts’ scrutiny puts the onus of deep due diligence and research on the investors.</li>\n</ul>\nIn Exhibit 1, we highlighted the significant level of underperformers in the BSE500. This number would be even higher for a small cap index like BSE Smallcap. This is also a key reason why the BSE Smallcap index has significantly trailed the Sensex, the Nifty and the BSE500 in generating risk adjusted returns and for that matter even absolute share price returns over the last 10/15 years.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2787 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"216\" />\n\n<strong>Quality may take a backseat momentarily but always makes a comeback </strong>\n\nIn the long run, high accounting quality and efficient capital allocation define investment success. A look at longer-term stock returns suggests a direct relationship between better accounting quality and superior stock performance. In the shorter run, however, markets do have a tendency to test investors’ patience even if the investor is using the most time tested and rational investment methods. Hence during this period of irrational exuberance and abundant liquidity, where there is a pressure to chase near terms returns, quality does take a backseat. Take the instance of the bull market of CY17 which saw speculative excesses being created in lower quality stocks.\n\nHowever, things changed with the onset of CY18. As the cost of capital rose, liquidity started drying up and equity markets turned volatile. This, in turn, made investors more selective. Recurring news flow on auditor resignations further spooked investors through CY18. All of this, in turn, brought the focus back on accounting quality. This has resulted in good quality companies outperforming their poor-quality counterparts by a considerable margin in CY18 and continuing to do so in CY19.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2788 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"674\" height=\"345\" />\n\n<strong>Marcellus’ forensic framework to evaluate accounting quality</strong>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2789 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"661\" height=\"365\" />\n\n<strong>Our forensic framework has proven to be an effective predictive tool</strong>\n\nOver the longer term, there has been a strong correlation between the accounting quality as suggested by our forensic model and the shareholders returns. For instance, the ‘Zone of quality’ has outperformed the ‘Zone of thuggery’ by a whopping 9% p.a. over CY16-19.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2790 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"656\" height=\"344\" />\n\nThere is another way to understand the effectiveness of this forensic model - there are around ~53 companies (out of the BSE 500) which constantly featured in D8 to D10 rankings in our accounting model for the years FY2015-18. Over CY16-19, these companies have on an average delivered <u>negative</u> CAGR of 13% compared to benchmark BSE 500’s 10% i.e. an underperformance of nearly 23% p.a.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2791 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"678\" height=\"383\" />\n\n<strong>Beyond the forensic screens </strong>\n\nOur forensic framework helps us to weed out companies with dubious accounting quality. It also helps us identity the key accounting red flags for a company. However, our quest for accounting quality does not end there. There are several qualitative aspects of accounting and corporate governance which our forensic model may not be able to pick up due to lack of data uniformity across companies or where there are subjective judgements involved. Such areas can only be evaluated through a deep dive into historical financial statements and primary data checks around management integrity.\n\nWe have developed the following checklist for further accounting and corporate governance checks beyond the forensic model. This checklist forms an essential part of the qualitative assessment of stocks\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2792 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"671\" height=\"394\" />\n\n<strong>Case study – Amtek Auto</strong>\n\nWe produce below our first-hand experience of analysing Amtek Auto’s financial statements a few years ago. The stock looked extremely cheap on valuation multiples with very high margin profile but a very weak balance sheet. Our analysis pointed towards multiple glaring issues in its financials. We went on to be proved right on most of these things.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2796 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-100.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"654\" height=\"569\" />\n\n<strong>Little Champs Performance update</strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2797 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-11-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"685\" height=\"360\" />\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n\n&nbsp;', 'The importance of accounting quality', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2784-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 04:51:07', '2020-01-21 04:51:07', '', 2784, 'https://marcellus.in/2784-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2749, 1, '2020-01-18 02:28:46', '2020-01-18 02:28:46', '', 'Marcellus_Little Champs_Newsletter-Dec 2019', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus_little-champs_newsletter-dec-2019', '', '', '2020-01-18 02:28:46', '2020-01-18 02:28:46', '', 2730, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Little-Champs_Newsletter-Dec-2019.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0);
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(2750, 1, '2020-01-20 12:00:59', '2020-01-20 12:00:59', '<strong>Given that each year 60 companies enter the BSE500, there are indeed strong economic drivers which help well run small firms explode into prominence. From an investors’ </strong><strong>viewpoint, in the three-year run-up to entering the BSE500, new entrants outperform the index by a CAGR of 40%, indicating significant return opportunity before these stocks are discovered by institutional investors. However, at the same time, high promoter-dependency, smaller size, a propensity for accounting mischief and relatively shorter operating history necessitates much higher degree of research rigour and diligence from investors. At Marcellus, </strong><strong>the key objective of our small cap “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with stellar track records of capital allocation, clean accounts and high growth potential. We expect our robust in-house forensic and capital allocation frameworks together with our team’s experience in forensic accounting and our vast network of primary data sources to help us achieve this objective.</strong>\n\n<strong><u>The case for small-cap investing</u></strong>\n\n<strong>Successful niche focussed MSMEs have been the biggest wealth creators of the past decade</strong>\n\nThe best performing stocks on earnings growth as well as share price returns in recent years have been names relatively unknown until a decade ago. For instance, of the top 10% of best performing stocks over FY09-19, <u>~80% are stocks which ranked below the 500<sup>th</sup> largest stock in India on market capitalisation</u> as at March 2009-end. This is also evident in the significant churn in BSE500 (average ~12% p.a. over the last ten years) as these high performing small caps replace the incumbent laggards. Given that each year nearly 60 new names enter the BSE500, such a trend points towards underlying economic drivers which help well run small firms explode into prominence.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2734 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"806\" height=\"445\" />\n\nThe three common stories across these champion small caps which have grown from near obscurity to prominence over the last decade have been: (i) <strong>Businesses that were earlier local in nature, became regional and finally gained national presence. </strong>The success template here has been to build a pan-India brand, a national distribution network and thereby chipping away market share from the unorganised local players and/or grow the addressable market pie (example – Kajaria Ceramics and La Opala). (ii) <strong>Businesses that were successful in replicating their leadership in one category across multiple categories. </strong>This has been driven by profitably deploying the cashflows from the core businesses into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment (examples – Supreme Industries, Astral Poly); and (iii) <strong>Businesses that were able to successfully capture a significant part of the global pie.</strong> These not only include export-oriented companies but also players able to substitute high level of imports into India (examples - Vinati Organics, AIA Engineering and Garware Technical Fibres). [Please note that the stocks named here are NOT necessarily part of our Little Champs Portfolio.]\n\nThese successful firms have mostly focussed on small niches within a much larger market. They have been able to build market dominance in their niches, command pricing power, expand the niches and resultantly generate healthy earnings growth and returns on capital. The financial performance of these smaller firms has been clearly better than: (a) most mass-market companies; and (b) diversified large corporations.\n\n<strong>Disproportionate benefits in owning these companies before their ‘discovery’ </strong>\n\nFrom an investors’ viewpoint, more relevant than the churn in BSE500 is the returns that these entrants into the BSE500 produce as they fly into the index. As shown in the chart below, in the three-year run-up to entering the BSE500, entrants outperform the index by a CAGR of 40%!\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2735 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-011638.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"795\" height=\"366\" />\n\nThis return performance is not just a function of superior earnings growth delivered by these firms in the run-up, but also a result of their valuations getting re-rerated. When these stocks are small and still inventing the wheels of their business, they are largely unnoticed by the large investors’ and research analysts’ communities. This results in them trading at significant discounts to their larger counterparts. However, once they reach a particular size (say market capitalization above US$0.5 billion), they come under the ambit of more and more research analysts’ coverage and institutional investors’ ownership and thus move up the valuation band.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2736 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-012018.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"793\" height=\"303\" />\n\n<strong><u>But beware of the pitfalls</u></strong>\n\nIt goes without saying that not every small firm will be successful and the winners will be those who have: <strong>(a)</strong> the work ethic to grow the organisation whilst instilling a process oriented culture and orchestrating a devolution of power &amp; responsibilities to build scale; <strong>(b)</strong> the capital allocation skills to rationally and patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages; and <strong>(c)</strong> the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations with tight working capital cycles and lean cost structures.\n\nThere is only a narrow set of small cap companies that have been able to pass these tests and eventually generate significant shareholders’ wealth. On the other hand, there are more examples of small cap stocks that not only failed but also ended up destroying significant investor wealth.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2758 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/67.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"781\" height=\"358\" />\n\nIn particular, the risks/hardships of investing in a small cap are due to the following factors:\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Inordinate bet on the promoter’s acumen and integrity: </strong>There is relatively high dependence on promoter(s) as generally the level of institutionalisation is relatively low in the company given the stage of evolution. Hence the business acumen and integrity of the promoter(s) would play a defining role in the success/failure of these smaller companies.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Low analysts’ coverage necessitates deeper diligence:</strong> We highlighted earlier that low level of analysts’ coverage creates a ‘valuation gap’ in small cap stocks and thus creates a non-linear share price return for successful small-caps. At the same time, lack of analysts’ scrutiny necessitates the onus of deep diligence and research on the investors.</li>\n</ul>\nThis is also a key reason why the BSE Smallcap index has significantly <u>trailed</u> the Sensex, Nifty and BSE500 indices in generating risk adjusted returns over the last 10- 15 years. We find that this point – that there is no pre-ordained reward for owning small-cap stocks – is not properly appreciated by most investors.\n\n<b></b><strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2738 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-072356.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"792\" height=\"259\" /></strong>\n\n<strong><u>Marcellus Little Champs Investment process to navigate the tricky world of small caps</u></strong>\n\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be particularly sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of the accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30%) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimise the impact of trading costs.\n\nWe use the following process to build the Little Champs portfolio:\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2748 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-074739.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"423\" />\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Using our in-house frameworks to shortlist high quality names:                                                                           </strong>We have developed the following rigorous screening frameworks to help shorten the large universe of ~1,200 small cap companies into a researchable universe of 40-50 companies.</li>\n 	<li style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1) Our forensic accounting framework: </strong>Evaluating the accounting quality of a company needs to be a cornerstone of any investment process in India. We at Marcellus have developed a set of 12 ratios that help to grade companies on their accounting quality. The selection of these ratios has been inspired by Howard M. Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting called ‘Financial Shenanigans’. These 12 forensic accounting ratios covers checks around key financial statement categories like income statement (revenue/ earnings manipulation), balance sheet (correct representation of assets/liabilities), cash pilferage and audit quality checks. Some of these key ratios and rationale are shown in the exhibit below. We look at the historical consolidated financial statements for the universe of firms. We first rank stocks on each of the twelve ratios and give a final decile-based pecking order on accounting quality for stocks – with D1 being the best on accounting quality and D10 being the worst. The top 5 deciles i.e. D1 to D5 are generally indicative of a company with good accounting quality/practices – we call D1 to D5 the ‘Zone of Quality’ whereas the bottom 30% i.e. D8 to D10 generally represent companies with questionable accounting practices – we call this the ‘Zone of Thuggery’.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2757 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/89.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"786\" height=\"368\" /></strong>\n\n<strong> </strong>Our forensic accounting framework has proven to be a highly effective predictive tool. Over longer term, there has been a strong correlation between the accounting quality as suggested by our forensic model and the shareholders returns. For instance, the ‘Zone of quality’ has outperformed the ‘Zone of thuggery’ by a whopping 10% p.a. over CY16-19.\n\n<strong> <img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2756 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1112.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"392\" /></strong>\n\n<strong><em>For more details on how we assess accounting quality,<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Little-Champs_Newsletter-Dec-2019-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> click here</a> for our December 2019 newsletter </em></strong>\n\n2.<b> Our competitive advantage/capital allocation framework </b>uses financial parameters like revenue growth, improvement in margin, working capital &amp; fixed assets turnover with certain thresholds on RoCE and net debt to rank the companies.<strong> Essentially, this framework helps us to identify companies which demonstrate ability to grow efficiently, generate cash and redeploy them to further grow – in essence, a self-sustaining cash machine. </strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2742 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073207.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"305\" height=\"238\" />\n\nWe have backtested the above frameworks for several years and the results have shown that the portfolio generated by the algorithm alone (i.e. without any human intervention) has not only expectedly outperformed the BSE Sensex (the benchmark) during periods of market downturn but also generally outperformed or matched the benchmark performance during market upturns. Given, the logical rule of compounding – i.e. if you fall less and rise equally - you reach higher – the framework has generated significant outperformance over December 2012-December 2018.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2743 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073420.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"827\" height=\"374\" />\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>In-depth research and diligence from a seasoned team of analysts: </strong></li>\n</ul>\nThe stocks shortlisted by our screening frameworks are then taken up for deep dive research and diligence by the seven analysts in our team. Besides analysis of the published financials and other secondary data, we aim to build insights into the companies through interacting with a host of primary data network sources. Here, we draw upon our following strengths:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>Forensic accounting skills – </strong>We have a deep pool of accounting talent in our team with every single one of our seven analysts being qualified Chartered Accountants and/or Chartered Financial Analysts who have cumulatively done more than 1,000 bespoke accounting projects over the last ten years.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Access to primary data and insights – </strong>The team has built a pan-India network of primary data sources which include dealers, distributors, promoters, ex-employees, customers, vendors etc.</li>\n</ol>\nBesides getting comfort on the management’s integrity and corporate culture, our diligence is also focussed towards finding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, their track record of dealing with technological or competitive disruptions and the wisdom of their capital allocation decisions. Here, <strong>the lessons from Hermann Simon’s celebrated ‘Hidden Champions’ framework </strong>form an important part of our checklist for such qualitative assessment of stocks. This is particularly with regards to sources and sustainability of the competitive advantages (quality of market leadership, innovation, customer-orientation, work culture), management capability/continuity (organisational leadership, work culture) and capital allocation (focus, self-financing, soft diversification).\n\n<strong>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2744 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-073633.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"791\" height=\"315\" /></strong>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong><em>For more details on Simon’s Hidden Champions framework, refer our November 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Marcellus_Little-Champs_Newsletter-Nov-2019-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Click here</a>).</em></strong>\n\n<strong>At this stage we bring down the 40-50 names shortlisted by our frameworks to around 15-20 names which we usually end up investing in. </strong>\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Continuous monitoring and evaluation:                                                                                 </strong>The portfolio names are subject to continuous monitoring (keeping a tab on results, continuing to meet customers, competitors and suppliers of these companies whilst maintaining regular contact with management) of major developments. We do not put much weightage on short-term factors like weak quarterly earnings. However, we would not desist from reacting in case of any structural changes in the company like key management changes (where we think the new management is not of the same pedigree as the earlier one), any capital allocation decisions that seems out of order or any corporate governance steps that does not seem to be in the best interests of the minority shareholders.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong><u>Marcellus Little Champs portfolio characteristics and comparative analysis</u></strong>\n\nAs of today, we have a total of 14 stocks in our Little Champs portfolio with equity allocation of close to 88%. While our stock selection is purely bottom-focussed, no single sector constitutes &gt;20% of invested corpus.\n\nBacktesting results show that over the last 5 years (FY14-19) in a seemingly tough period for macro-economic environment and corporate earnings, the Little Champs portfolio has, on a median basis, delivered a net earnings CAGR of 22%. This earnings growth has been combined with a reasonably healthy average RoCE (pre-tax) of 20%. The exhibit below gives the key statistics for the Little Champs at the overall portfolio level.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2755 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"210\" />\n\nMost importantly, the earnings growth for Little Champs has been achieved without taking any big undue capital allocation bets. On an average, over the last five years, Little Champs have re-invested close to 60% of their cash back into business primarily through capex and, to a smaller extent, by acquiring other companies. This reinvestment rate is more or less similar to their small cap peers.\n\nHowever, the stark difference comes out when one compares the ‘source’ of cash. For Little Champs, superior RoCEs resulted in healthy operational cash flow which in turn has been utilized towards not only reinvesting in the business but bring down the debt levels to almost NIL. On the other hand, for the small cap peers, lower RoCE and consequent lower operational cash generation (60% of total cash raised), resulted in significant reliance on debt (&gt;20%). Besides the weak macros, meeting the debt servicing requirements has also been one of the key reasons for weak earnings growth of small cap companies over the last few years.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2754 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"783\" height=\"386\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\n\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 28, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2747 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Annotation-2020-01-18-074051-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"794\" height=\"339\" />\n\n<strong> </strong>\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\n\n&nbsp;\n\n<em> </em>', 'Introducing Little Champs – Marcellus’ Small Cap PMS', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2730-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-01-20 12:00:59', '2020-01-20 12:00:59', '', 2730, 'https://marcellus.in/2730-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2764, 1, '2019-10-18 11:57:35', '2019-10-18 11:57:35', '<strong>Given that each year 60 companies enter the BSE500, we can see that there are certain economic drivers which are helping well run small firms explode into prominence. From an investors’ </strong><strong>viewpoint, in the three years run-up to entering the BSE500, new entrants outperform the index at a CAGR of as much as 40%, indicating significant return opportunity before these stocks are discovered by institutional investors. However, at the same time, high promoter-dependency, smaller size and relatively shorter operating history necessitate much higher degree of research rigour, diligence and investment horizon/patience from the investors. At Marcellus, </strong><strong>the key objective of our small cap fund “Little Champs” is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts and high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be particularly sure of staying away from dubious names. </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><strong><u>The case for small-cap investing </u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>More and more Small caps gaining prominence and an entry in BSE500</strong>\r\n\r\nThe best performing stocks on earnings growth as well as stocks price returns in the recent years have been names relatively unknown a decade back. For instance, of the 10% best performing stocks over FY09-19, ~80% are stocks which ranked below 500th on market capitalisation as at March 2009-end. This is also evident in the significant churn in BSE500 (on an average BSE500 churned almost 12% p.a. over the last ten years) as these high performing small caps replace the incumbent laggards. Given that each year ~60 new names are entering the BSE500, such a trend clearly points to underlying economic drivers which are helping well run small firms explode into prominence.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2769 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"677\" height=\"359\" />\r\n\r\nThe three common stories across these successful firms which have grown from near obscurity to prominence over the last decade have been:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were earlier local in nature, became regional and finally gained national presence. </strong>The success template here has been to build a pan-India brand, a national distribution network and thereby chipping away share from the unorganised local plays or grow the addressable market pie. Improved integration within the economy be it communication (including internet), mode of travel (road, air) etc. have helped break-down barriers which hitherto helped informal businesses flourish. The likes of Kajaria Ceramics and La Opala have been able to take their products national and build a pan-India franchise.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were successful in replicating the leadership in one category across multiple categories. </strong>This has been driven by profitably deploying the cashflows from the core businesses into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment. Companies like Supreme Industries and Astral Poly have shown how to leverage the cash flows, product understanding as also the distribution/customer relationships of the core business to build profitable adjacencies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were able to successfully capture a significant part of the global pie.</strong> These not only include export-oriented companies but also players able to substitute high level of imports into India. The underlying drivers for success here have not only been leveraging the low-cost Indian manufacturing advantage, but also coming up with innovative products or processes that induces customers to shift from existing vendors. Successful examples here include Vinati Organics, AIA Engineering and Garware Technical Fibres each of whom have gone to dominate the global market for their products niches.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Disproportionate benefits in owning these companies before their ‘discovery’ </strong>\r\n\r\nFrom an investors’ viewpoint, more relevant than the churn in BSE500 is the returns that these entrants into the BSE500 produce as they fly into the index. As shown in the chart above, in the three years run-up to entering the BSE500, entrants outperform the index at a CAGR of as much as 40%!!!\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2770 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"293\" />\r\n\r\nThis return performance is not only a function of the superior earnings growth delivered by these firms in the run-up, but also a result of their valuations getting re-rerated. When these stocks are small and still inventing the wheels of their business, they are largely unnoticed by the large investors’ and research analysts’ communities. This results in them trading at significant discounts to their larger counterparts. However, once they reach a particular size (say market capitalization above US$0.5 billion), they come under the ambit of more and more research analysts’ coverage and institutional investors’ ownership and thus move up the valuation band.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2771 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"662\" height=\"252\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>But beware of the pitfalls</u></strong>\r\n\r\nIt goes without saying that not every small firm will be successful and the winners will be those who have: (a) the work ethic to grow the organisation larger such as instilling process oriented culture, devolution of power &amp; responsibilities to build scale etc; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally and patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages; and (c) the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations such as keeping the working capital cycles tight.\r\n\r\nThere is only a narrow set of small cap companies that have been able to pass these tests and eventually generate significant shareholders’ wealth. On the other hand, there are more examples of small cap stocks that not only failed but also ended up destroying significant investor wealth. Hence, while the reward is enormous for picking the right small cap stocks, the associated risks and rigour required are manifold compared to that in the large cap and even mid cap space for that matter.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2772 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-4-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"670\" height=\"318\" />\r\n\r\nIn particular, the risks/hardships of investing in a small cap are due to the following factors:<strong> </strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Inordinate bet on the promoter’s acumen and integrity: </strong>There is relatively high dependence on promoter(s) as generally the level of institutionalisation is relatively low in the company given the stage of evolution. Hence the business acumen and integrity of the promoter(s) would play a defining role in the success/failure of these smaller companies.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Incorrect capital allocation can be disastrous: </strong>Besides the success in the core business, allocation of the cash thus generated plays a vital role in the value creation or destruction for such companies. More than the failure in the core business, inefficient deployment of capital either due to a wrong business judgement or promoter’s hubris or sub-par corporate governance (loans to related parties) have led numerous small cap firms to fall apart. Needless to say, given their smaller sizes, capital allocation gone awry can wreak havoc in small companies.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Low analysts’ coverage necessitates deeper diligence:</strong> We highlighted earlier that low level of analysts’ coverage creates a ‘valuation gap’ in small cap stocks and thus creates a non-linear share price return for successful small-caps. At the same time, lack of analysts’ scrutiny necessitates the onus of deep diligence and research on the investors.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Higher thresholds of patience and investment horizon: </strong>Compared to the mature business, smaller companies, no matter how strong they are, tend to be affected more by business/macro cycles due to their smaller size and also low stock liquidity. Hence, during weak cycles (just like we have been experiencing for a year and half now), small-caps’ earnings as well as returns drawdowns see larger impacts compared to larger caps. Also, due to smaller size, any capex or other business decisions tend to impact earnings more in the near term (depreciation, interest costs, low utilisation) before the fruits are realised over the medium-longer term. Hence, patience and longer-term investment horizon are necessary virtues for small-cap investing.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong><u>Marcellus Little Champs PMS – how do we intend to navigate the world of small caps?</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective for the “Little Champs” fund is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts and corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be  particularly sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of the accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30%) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimise the impact of trading costs.\r\n\r\nWe use the following process to build the Little Champs portfolio:\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-2778 \" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/exh-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"684\" height=\"380\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Using our in-house frameworks to shortlist high quality names:</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe have developed the following rigorous screening frameworks to help shorten the large universe of ~1,200 small cap companies into a researchable universe of 40-50 companies\r\n\r\n<strong>a. Our forensic accounting framework </strong>draws upon Howard Schilt’s legendary text on forensic accounting, “Financial Shenanigans”. Using a set of forensic ratios, we rank the companies on accounting quality. This helps us stay away from companies with dubious financials. Our experience and analysis have shown that shareholders’ returns are strongly linked to accounting quality.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2774 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"672\" height=\"257\" /><strong>b. Our competitive advantage/capital allocation framework </strong>uses financial parameters like revenue growth, improvement in margin, working capital &amp; fixed assets turnover with certain thresholds on RoCE and net debt to rank the companies. Essentially, this framework helps us to identify companies which demonstrate ability to grow efficiently, generate cash and redeploy them to further grow – in essence, a self-sustaining cash machine.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2777 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-7-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"208\" />\r\n\r\nWe have backtested the above frameworks for several years and the results have shown that the portfolio generated by the Algo has not only expectedly outperformed the BSE Sensex (the benchmark) during periods of market downturn but also generally outperformed or matched the benchmark performance during market upturns. Given, the rule of compounding, if you fall less and rise equally, you reach higher – the framework has generated significant outperformance over December 2012-December 2018.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2775 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"673\" height=\"343\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>In-depth research and diligence: </strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe stocks shortlisted by our screening frameworks are taken up for deep dive research and diligence. Besides analysis of the published financials and other secondary data, we aim to build insights into the companies through interacting with a host of primary data network sources. Here, we draw upon our following strengths:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Forensic accounting skills – </strong>We have a deep pool of accounting talent in the team which have cumulatively done more than 1,000 bespoke accounting projects over the last ten years for institutional investors.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Access to primary data and insights – </strong>The team has built a pan-India network of primary data sources which include dealers, distributors, promoters, ex-employees, customers, vendors etc.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong> </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>In this stage we bring down the 40-50 names shortlisted by our frameworks to around 15-20 names that we end up investing in. </strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Continuous monitoring and evaluation:</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nThe portfolio names will be subject to continuous monitoring (keeping a tab on results, continuing to meet customers, competitors and suppliers of these companies whilst maintaining regular contact with management) of major developments. We do not intend to put much weightage to short-term impacts like weak quarterly earnings owning to macro/business cycles. However, we would not desist from reacting in case of any structural changes in the company like key management changes (where we think the new management is not of the same pedigree as the earlier one), any capital allocation decisions that seems out of order or any corporate governance steps that does not seem to be in the best interests of the minority shareholders.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the Live Fund</u></strong>\r\n\r\nOur fund went live on August 28, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2776 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/1-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"414\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>', 'Introducing Little Champs – our small cap PMS', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'introducing-little-champs-our-small-cap-pms', '', '', '2020-01-20 12:09:10', '2020-01-20 12:09:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2764', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2779, 1, '2019-11-21 04:09:28', '2019-11-21 04:09:28', '<strong>‘Niche’ focused players have been the biggest wealth creators in India over the past decade thanks to superlative earnings growth and high return on capital. Given this background, </strong><strong>it makes sense to identity &amp; invest in such companies, more so when such companies are relatively ‘unknown’ in the stockmarket. We find German Management Guru Hermann Simon’s ground-breaking book <em>“Hidden-Champions of the 21<sup>st</sup> Century”</em> particularly useful in identifying the traits associated with successful niche MSMEs. The lessons from Simon’s Hidden Champions form an important part of our checklist for assessment of stocks in our Little Champs portfolio. Simon’s work is particularly relevant with regards to the sustainability of the competitive advantages (quality of leadership, customer-orientation, work culture), management capability/continuity and capital allocation (focus, self-financing, soft diversification).</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Successful niche focussed MSMEs have been the biggest wealth creators of the past decade</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our maiden newsletter on Little Champs published in October 2019, we had highlighted that over the longer term “Champion Small Caps’ significantly outperform their Large Cap counterparts on both earnings growth as well as shareholder returns. Indeed, of the 20 best performing stocks (excluding Financials) over the last decade (October 2009-19), 18 stocks were those with market cap &lt;Rs300cr as at October 2009. The remaining 2 names out of the above 20 i.e. Page Industries and Eicher Motors, too, had market cap of &lt;Rs800cr and &lt;Rs1,500cr respectively in October 2009.\r\n\r\nWhat’s more intriguing than small caps dominating the best performers’ list is the nature of these small cap companies – mostly focussed on the small niches within a much larger market. These players have been able to build market dominance in their niches, command pricing power, expand the niches and resultantly generate high earnings growth and healthy returns on capital. The financial performance of these smaller companies has been clearly better than: (a) most mass market companies; and (b) diversified large corporations.  Some of these smaller companies are highlighted in the exhibit below.\r\n\r\n<strong>Exhibit 1: </strong><strong>Small-mid niche focused players have been the biggest wealth creators of the past decade driven by their superior earnings growth and return on capital </strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2780 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"648\" height=\"387\" />\r\n\r\nSome of the above names such as Eicher Motors and Page Industries have now become multi-billion dollar market cap companies as their niches have drawn in a large number of customers from the mass market thanks Royal Enfield’s and Jockey’s aspirational appeal to mass-market brand consumers.\r\n\r\n<strong>Key pillars of successful niche MSMEs: learning from Hermann Simon</strong>\r\n\r\nWe also discussed in our October 2019 newsletter that a significant portion of a successful small cap company’s share price return comes from its valuation re-rating as the stockmarket recognise its fair value over time. Given the enormous wealth generated by successful niche MSMEs, it makes sense to identify and invest in such companies and more so when these companies are relatively ‘unknown’ in the stockmarket.\r\n\r\nWe have found German Management Guru Hermann Simon’s ground-breaking book <em>“Hidden-Champions of the 21<sup>st</sup> Century”</em> (1996) particularly useful in identifying the traits associated with successful niche MSMEs. Simon’s book focuses on small companies (revenue below US$4bn) which are market leaders (number 1, 2 or 3 in the global market or number 1 on its continent) and yet very few people know about them (low level of public awareness). He calls them ‘Hidden Champions”. Based on his extensive analysis of thousands of Hidden Champions across the globe, Simon has identified certain common characteristics which he believes has made these companies successful and helped them sustain their success for decades.\r\n\r\nHermann Simon identifies the following key traits of hidden champions from his analysis of several companies over a long period - brief excerpts from the book are reproduced below:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Growth and market leadership</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“Typical hidden champions follow the mantra – grow or die.\"</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Hidden champions pursue ambitious goals particularly with regards to growth and market leadership. These goals are formulated very early on in the company’s life and communicated unequivocally across the organisation. Interestingly, the goals are long term in nature extending sometimes over generations rather than quarters.</li>\r\n 	<li>Growth is often achieved through successful innovations and expansion into new markets.</li>\r\n 	<li>Market leadership is driven not by aggressive pricing but through superior performance, innovation, quality and reputation.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Market and focus</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“The dependence on their market makes hidden champions ferocious defenders and great innovators”</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champions typically define their market narrowly. For example, La Opala for instance has deliberately focused on the niche Opalware crockery market rather than much large crockery market in India in general.</li>\r\n 	<li>Once they have selected a market, the Hidden Champions show a strong and lasting commitment to it.</li>\r\n 	<li>Focus on the core business enables hidden champions to track their market closely and defend their positions to evolving customer needs and technological developments.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Innovation</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“Innovation is one of the key pillars on which the market leadership of the hidden champions is base.”</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Innovation applies to not only to technology and products but more so to business processes.</li>\r\n 	<li>Further, process innovations are not just restricted to cost reduction but also applied in regard to quality, faster development cycles and thus help in in delivering higher value to the customers.</li>\r\n 	<li>Top management generally plays a key role in driving innovation. This involvement is not only in the initial and early phases of a Hidden Champion’s life but throughout the lifecycle of the company. For example, in almost every single company highlighted in the table on the first page of this note, the promoter continues to play a central role in driving innovation and R&amp;D.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Customer orientation</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“Hidden Champions and their customers often develop relationships similar to a symbiosis.”</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champions may be little known to the general public, but they are well-known in their industry and enjoy a strong reputation amongst their customers.</li>\r\n 	<li>The customers’ demands are aimed at performance (quality, reliability, timely delivery) rather than low prices. The products and services supplied by Hidden Champions offer not only top quality but also increasingly comprehensive solutions which are hard for others to deliver (and thus become significant barriers to entry).</li>\r\n 	<li>Top management values continuous direct customer contact and practices this on regular basis. This is possible due to their manageable size, decentralised organisational structure and regular customer contact by top managers.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Financing and organisational structure</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“Most hidden champions flourish with very little organisation”</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champions typically generate healthy profits &amp; free cash flows and a high return on capital employed. To that effect, self-financing remains the most important source of financing for the Hidden Champions creating a virtuous financial circle. You will note that very few of the companies mentioned in the table on the cover page have relied upon debt to finance their growth.</li>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champions typically exhibit decentralised customer-oriented organisational structure (empowered frontliners) with a very lean top management.</li>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champions strongly outsource non-core competencies. This is less for cost reasons than to derive higher quality from specialised suppliers.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Work culture</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“Hidden Champions have more work than heads and high-performance culture”</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Hidden champions see employee loyalty, training, motivation, and flexibility as their key competitive strengths.</li>\r\n 	<li>The work culture of hidden champions is not subject to the political correctness of the time but characterised by aspects such as long-term loyalty, intolerance of laziness and strict selection. For example, a significant barrier to entry erected by Page Industries is its labour force. Whilst Page’s competitors struggle to retain workers for more than 9 months, a typical Page employee stays with the firm for 9 years. That in turn allows Page to generate labour productivity which are many multiples of what its competitors can generate.</li>\r\n 	<li>Multi-functional assignments and transfer between functions are more widespread at Hidden Champions than in large corporations. This flexibility results in better performance at lower costs.</li>\r\n 	<li>Hidden champions ensure that they have more work than people. This condition minimises unproductive activity and proves to be an extremely effective productivity driver.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Organisational leadership </strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<em>“The leaders are the ultimate source of the success of the hidden champions. They are characterized by unity of person and purpose, single-mindedness, fearlessness, stamina, and inspiration to others”.</em>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The leaders of Hidden Champions are fearless. As entrepreneurs, their personal fortunes are often inseparably tied to the success of their companies: if their companies fail, they stand to lose everything. Clearly, they possess the courage, the fearlessness, to take risks.</li>\r\n 	<li>The leadership continuity of Hidden Champions is much stronger than that for large corporations, with leaders staying at the helm for 20 years or more. This is also why “single mindedness” is far more pronounced among the leaders of Hidden Champions.</li>\r\n 	<li>Hidden Champion leaders often spend their entire lives, or at least decades, with a single company. Thus, the plans and goals implemented by the leaders of Hidden Champions are often shaped by extremely long-term strategic thinking. In this context you might want to read our blog on leaders who play the “infinite game” [<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/the-greatest-exponent-of-the-infinite-game-verghese-kurien/\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/the-greatest-exponent-of-the-infinite-game-verghese-kurien/</a>].</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Can niche focus restrict longer term growth? </strong>\r\n\r\nA question arises that would focus on a narrow market together with a high market share may act as limiting factor for long term growth. Hidden champions, as per Simon’s findings, have often overcome this challenge through the following routes:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Globalisation (can also apply to expansion into new states in the Indian context):</strong> Globalisation not only makes even the narrow markets large, it further contributes to growth in profits through economies of scale. The foundation for the success of this strategy is that customers in the same industry tend to have similar needs across countries. Hence, it is better to expand regionally in a narrowly defined market than to enter different markets in the same region. Hidden Champions prefer their own subsidiaries for global business than entering a tie-up or alliance with a foreign partner. For example, Symphony has preferred to acquire air cooler manufacturers as far afield as USA and Australia rather than entering tie-ups.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Soft diversification: </strong>Particularly over the last two decades, diversification has been increasingly been employed by Hidden Champions to keep the flame of growth glowing. Besides the growth objective, better exploitation of existing competencies and know-how are another important motive for diversification. But wouldn’t diversification raise the risk that the Hidden Champion’s focus may be lost? To overcome this risk, Hidden Champions employ ‘soft diversification’ where new units stay close to the traditional business, both in terms of technology and market. Further, new business units are organised and managed like hidden Champions.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Using the hidden champions construct in Marcellus Little Champs investment process </strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective for our small cap “Little Champs” fund is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading Indian franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts and corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential.\r\n\r\nWe use the following process to build the Little Champs portfolio:<em> </em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Little Champs Portfolio construction process</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2782 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"320\" />\r\n\r\nOur forensic accounting and capital allocation/fundamental filters help us eliminate the dubious and weak franchises. Subsequent to this elimination process, we are left with 40-50 small cap stocks for further diligence. Due to the filters used, this shortlist invariably contains companies who are typically leaders with high RoCEs.\r\n\r\nOur diligence is then focussed towards finding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, past track record of dealing with technological or competitive disruptions and capital allocation decisions. <strong>Here, the lessons from Hidden Champions explained in preceding sections form an important part of our checklist for such qualitative assessment of stocks. This is particularly with regards to sources and sustainability of the competitive advantages (quality of market leadership, innovation, customer-orientation, work culture), management capability/continuity (organisational leadership, work culture) and capital allocation (focus, self-financing, soft diversification).</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2783 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"664\" height=\"251\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Learning from Hermann Simon', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'learning-from-hermann-simon', '', '', '2020-01-21 04:53:23', '2020-01-21 04:53:23', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2779', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2784, 1, '2019-12-21 04:24:52', '2019-12-21 04:24:52', '<strong>45% of the stocks which were in the BSE500 ten years ago have exited the index since. The primary driver of these exits is shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation (the two are linked). In contrast, the number of companies which have significantly enriched their shareholders are a handful. Inspired by Howard Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting ‘Financial Shenanigans’ (fourth edition, 2018), we at Marcellus use 12 powerful forensic ratios to evaluate the accounting qualities of Indian companies. This framework has proved to be an effective predictive tool with strong correlation between its accounting quality results and investment returns. Besides these ratios, we also employ an exhaustive checklist for qualitative due diligence on accounts and corporate governance. In this newsletter, we also highlight a case study of how investors would could have avoided Amtek Auto using cues from its financial statements.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“It has been far safer to steal large sums with a pen than small sums with a gun” – Warren Buffet</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Avoiding dubious companies is as important as identifying great companies</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our October 2019 newsletter on Little Champs, we highlighted that churn in the BSE500 is as high as 12% p.a. This high churn ratio signifies that most existing incumbents are unable to sustain their place in the index and, over the course of a decade, make way for more deserving candidates. A closer analysis of the stocks exiting the BSE500 over the last 5 to 10 years indicate that most exits had little to do with business downturns but were mainly due to corporate governance/accounting lapses and capital misallocations at these firms.\r\n\r\nIf one were to look at BSE500 as it stood in December 2009, out of the total 500 member stocks then, only 274 stocks continue to remain in the index. In other words, nearly 45% of the stocks have exited the index over the last ten years. On their way out, most of these stocks saw significant erosion in their shareholders’ wealth (on an average, the companies which exited the index have lost 40% of their December 2009 market cap). Hence, for every Bajaj Finance and Eicher Motors which significantly enriched their investors, there has been an Educomp and Lanco Infratech which left their minority shareholders high and dry.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2785 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"657\" height=\"238\" />\r\n\r\nWhile the number of companies which have generated enormous wealth for their shareholders are bound to be a handful, the number of companies which have destroyed shareholders’ wealth would be much more. Hence, the ability to stay away from dubious names is equally if not more important than the ability to discover a great company.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2786 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"651\" height=\"221\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Evaluating accounting quality becomes all the more important for small caps</strong>\r\n\r\nWhile the reward is enormous for picking the right small cap stocks, the associated risks and rigour required are manifold compared to that in the large cap and even mid cap space for that matter. In particular, the risks/hardships of investing in a small cap are due to the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Inordinate bet on the promoter’s integrity: </strong>There is relatively high dependence on promoter(s) as generally the level of institutionalisation is relatively low in the company given the stage of evolution. Hence the business acumen and integrity of the promoter(s) would play a defining role in the success/failure of these smaller companies.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Inadequate coverage by brokerage analysts necessitates deeper diligence: </strong>We highlighted in our October 2019 note that low level of analysts’ coverage creates a ‘valuation gap’ in small cap stocks and thus creates an opportunity for non-linear share price returns from successful small-caps. At the same time, lack of analysts’ scrutiny puts the onus of deep due diligence and research on the investors.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nIn Exhibit 1, we highlighted the significant level of underperformers in the BSE500. This number would be even higher for a small cap index like BSE Smallcap. This is also a key reason why the BSE Smallcap index has significantly trailed the Sensex, the Nifty and the BSE500 in generating risk adjusted returns and for that matter even absolute share price returns over the last 10/15 years.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2787 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"216\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Quality may take a backseat momentarily but always makes a comeback </strong>\r\n\r\nIn the long run, high accounting quality and efficient capital allocation define investment success. A look at longer-term stock returns suggests a direct relationship between better accounting quality and superior stock performance. In the shorter run, however, markets do have a tendency to test investors’ patience even if the investor is using the most time tested and rational investment methods. Hence during this period of irrational exuberance and abundant liquidity, where there is a pressure to chase near terms returns, quality does take a backseat. Take the instance of the bull market of CY17 which saw speculative excesses being created in lower quality stocks.\r\n\r\nHowever, things changed with the onset of CY18. As the cost of capital rose, liquidity started drying up and equity markets turned volatile. This, in turn, made investors more selective. Recurring news flow on auditor resignations further spooked investors through CY18. All of this, in turn, brought the focus back on accounting quality. This has resulted in good quality companies outperforming their poor-quality counterparts by a considerable margin in CY18 and continuing to do so in CY19.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2788 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"674\" height=\"345\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ forensic framework to evaluate accounting quality</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2799 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/3-111.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"655\" height=\"196\" />\r\n\r\nThese 12 forensic accounting ratios covers checks around key financial statement categories like income statement (revenue/ earnings manipulation), balance sheet (correct representation of assets/liabilities), cash pilferage and audit quality checks.  Some of these key ratios and rationale are shown in the below exhibit. We look at the historical consolidated financial statements for the universe of firms. We first rank stocks on each of the twelve ratios and give a final decile-based pecking order on accounting quality for stocks – with D1 being the best on accounting quality and D10 being the worst. The top 5 deciles i.e. D1 to D5 are generally indicative of a company with good accounting quality/practices – we call D1 to D5 the ‘Zone of Quality’ whereas the bottom 30% i.e. D8 to D10 generally represent companies with questionable accounting practices – we call this the ‘Zone of Thuggery’.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2789 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"661\" height=\"365\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Our forensic framework has proven to be an effective predictive tool</strong>\r\n\r\nOver the longer term, there has been a strong correlation between the accounting quality as suggested by our forensic model and the shareholders returns. For instance, the ‘Zone of quality’ has outperformed the ‘Zone of thuggery’ by a whopping 9% p.a. over CY16-19.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2790 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"656\" height=\"344\" />\r\n\r\nThere is another way to understand the effectiveness of this forensic model - there are around ~53 companies (out of the BSE 500) which constantly featured in D8 to D10 rankings in our accounting model for the years FY2015-18. Over CY16-19, these companies have on an average delivered <u>negative</u> CAGR of 13% compared to benchmark BSE 500’s 10% i.e. an underperformance of nearly 23% p.a.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2791 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"678\" height=\"383\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Beyond the forensic screens </strong>\r\n\r\nOur forensic framework helps us to weed out companies with dubious accounting quality. It also helps us identity the key accounting red flags for a company. However, our quest for accounting quality does not end there. There are several qualitative aspects of accounting and corporate governance which our forensic model may not be able to pick up due to lack of data uniformity across companies or where there are subjective judgements involved. Such areas can only be evaluated through a deep dive into historical financial statements and primary data checks around management integrity.\r\n\r\nWe have developed the following checklist for further accounting and corporate governance checks beyond the forensic model. This checklist forms an essential part of the qualitative assessment of stocks\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2792 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"671\" height=\"394\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Case study – Amtek Auto</strong>\r\n\r\nWe produce below our first-hand experience of analysing Amtek Auto’s financial statements a few years ago. The stock looked extremely cheap on valuation multiples with very high margin profile but a very weak balance sheet. Our analysis pointed towards multiple glaring issues in its financials. We went on to be proved right on most of these things.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2796 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-100.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"654\" height=\"569\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Little Champs Performance update</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2797 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/3-11-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"685\" height=\"360\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"http://marcellus.in/resources/\">http://marcellus.in/resources/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The importance of accounting quality', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'the-importance-of-accounting-quality', '', '', '2020-01-21 04:52:32', '2020-01-21 04:52:32', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2784', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2801, 1, '2020-01-19 05:37:08', '2020-01-19 05:37:08', 'Joanne Cameron, a 72-year old retired school teacher living in a village in the Scottish Highlands, suffers from a rare genetic mutation. An Indian doctor – who used to work in the Indian Navy and now works for Britain’s NHS – upon discovering this mutation realised that Ms Cameron’s rare condition (which has never been found in any other human being) can shed new light on how the human body works. This remarkable story highlights why New Yorker is the home of the best writers on the planet.\r\nMs Cameron’s rare genetic condition means that her body and mind rarely registers pain or fear or dread or anxiety: <em>““I know the word ‘pain,’ and I know people are in pain, because you can see it,” Joanne Cameron, a seventy-two-year-old retired teacher, told me, in the cluttered kitchen of her century-old stone cottage in the Scottish Highlands. Cameron has never experienced the extremes of rage, dread, grief, anxiety, or fear. She handed a cup of tea to Jim, her husband of twenty-five years, with whom she’s never had a fight. “I see stress,” she continued, “and I’ve seen pain, what it does, but I’m talking about an abstract thing.”</em>\r\n<em>Because of a combination of genetic quirks, Cameron’s negative emotional range is limited to the kinds of bearable suffering…When something bad happens, Cameron’s brain immediately searches for a way to ameliorate the situation, but it does not dwell on unhappiness. She inadvertently follows the creed of the Stoics (and of every twelve-step recovery program): Accept the things you cannot change.”</em>\r\nExperts now believe that if they can understand the precise nature of Ms Cameron’s genetic mutation and how that has altered her mind &amp; body, they might be able to create drugs which allow all of us to live the sort of happy life Ms Cameron has lived (inspite of her first husband suffering from bipolar disorder and then subsequently dying after a prolonged battle with mental illness).\r\nCameron was “discovered” by Devjit Srivastava, a former Indian Naval Officer. <em>“Srivastava is the consultant anesthetist at what he calls a “frontier hospital”—Raigmore, in Inverness, which serves the whole of the vast and remote Scottish Highlands…When Srivastava met Jo Cameron, six years ago, she told him that she wouldn’t need painkillers for the surgery she was about to undergo. He assumed that he was just dealing with a kindred imperturbable spirit….</em>\r\n<em>Cameron was having a trapeziectomy, an operation to remove a small bone at the base of the thumb joint…Srivastava told Cameron that, Scottish stoicism notwithstanding, he intended to use an anesthetic block during the operation. After she left the hospital, he reviewed her chart: “She had only one paracetamol”—a Tylenol—“immediately after the operation in the recovery area. And that was only because the nurses give everybody a paracetamol after surgery. I checked the full records of hip replacement the previous year: after hip surgery it was the same thing—nothing taken for pain. That’s when I called her in.”</em>\r\n<em>He remained slightly skeptical until Cameron let him perform a maneuver that anesthesiologists use on patients who are having difficulty regaining consciousness after sedation: they press hard on the inner edges of the eye sockets, and the pain shocks people awake. Cameron, of course, felt only pressure.</em>\r\n<em>Srivastava was surprised that no doctor or nurse had been curious about her pain insensitivity before…Srivastava recognized that her case was extraordinary—“This doesn’t fall into every anesthetist’s life,” he said—and also that understanding it would require him to supplement his own expertise. He developed a research protocol, and enlisted highly regarded scientists from around the world to try to figure out what caused her condition.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly is the mutation that Ms Cameron suffers from? Why exactly is it that she’s so extraordinary?\r\n<em>“Cameron does not have neuropathy: she can feel all the sensations the rest of us do, except pain. The most striking difference between her and everyone else is the way she processes endocannabinoids—chemicals that exist naturally in every human brain. Endocannabinoids mitigate our stress response, and they bind to the same receptors as the THC in the kind of cannabis you smoke. Normally, they are broken down by an enzyme called fatty acid amide hydrolase, or faah. But Cameron has a mutation on her faah gene that makes the enzyme less effective—so her endocannabinoids build up. She has extraordinarily high levels of one in particular: anandamide, whose name is derived from the Sanskrit word for “bliss.”</em>\r\n<em>About a third of the population has a mutation in the faah gene, which provides increased levels of anandamide. “That phenotype—low levels of anxiety, forgetfulness, a happy-go-lucky demeanor—isn’t representative of how everyone responds to cannabis, but you see a lot of the prototypical changes in them that occur when people consume cannabis,” said Matthew Hill, a biologist at the University of Calgary’s Hotchkiss Brain Institute, who was a co-author of the Cameron paper. The faah gene, like every gene, comes in a pair. People who have the mutation in one allele of the gene seem a little high; people who have it in both even more so. Jo Cameron is fully baked.”</em>\r\nIn fact, Ms Cameron’s mutation is such that it makes her close to being the “perfect human being”: <em>“Paul Bloom, a professor of psychology at Yale and the author of the book “Against Empathy,” maintains that relating to suffering has little to do with the capacity to be helpful and kind. He has published research suggesting that compassion, not empathy, drives altruistic behavior. (Most research on the subject blurs together empathy and compassion, but Bloom argues that this is a failure of experimental design: “The standard measures suck.”) “Empathy can actually get in the way—if you are in terrible pain and I feel so much empathy for you that, being with you, I feel it, too, I may decide to stay home,” he told me. “The Buddhists knew this. There’s all this teaching that says, ‘Don’t get sentimental. Joyously and lovingly help others, but don’t get in their heads.’ ” Cameron, he told me, was a perfect illustration of his point: “She’s my dream girl. She doesn’t feel the pain of others, so she doesn’t feel empathy per se. But she cares for others.””</em>', 'A World Without Pain: Does Hurting Make Us Human?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-world-without-pain-does-hurting-make-us-human', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:39:26', '2020-01-21 05:39:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2801', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2802, 1, '2020-01-21 05:39:11', '2020-01-21 05:39:11', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:39:11', '2020-01-21 05:39:11', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2803, 1, '2020-01-21 05:39:26', '2020-01-21 05:39:26', 'Joanne Cameron, a 72-year old retired school teacher living in a village in the Scottish Highlands, suffers from a rare genetic mutation. An Indian doctor – who used to work in the Indian Navy and now works for Britain’s NHS – upon discovering this mutation realised that Ms Cameron’s rare condition (which has never been found in any other human being) can shed new light on how the human body works. This remarkable story highlights why New Yorker is the home of the best writers on the planet.\r\nMs Cameron’s rare genetic condition means that her body and mind rarely registers pain or fear or dread or anxiety: <em>““I know the word ‘pain,’ and I know people are in pain, because you can see it,” Joanne Cameron, a seventy-two-year-old retired teacher, told me, in the cluttered kitchen of her century-old stone cottage in the Scottish Highlands. Cameron has never experienced the extremes of rage, dread, grief, anxiety, or fear. She handed a cup of tea to Jim, her husband of twenty-five years, with whom she’s never had a fight. “I see stress,” she continued, “and I’ve seen pain, what it does, but I’m talking about an abstract thing.”</em>\r\n<em>Because of a combination of genetic quirks, Cameron’s negative emotional range is limited to the kinds of bearable suffering…When something bad happens, Cameron’s brain immediately searches for a way to ameliorate the situation, but it does not dwell on unhappiness. She inadvertently follows the creed of the Stoics (and of every twelve-step recovery program): Accept the things you cannot change.”</em>\r\nExperts now believe that if they can understand the precise nature of Ms Cameron’s genetic mutation and how that has altered her mind &amp; body, they might be able to create drugs which allow all of us to live the sort of happy life Ms Cameron has lived (inspite of her first husband suffering from bipolar disorder and then subsequently dying after a prolonged battle with mental illness).\r\nCameron was “discovered” by Devjit Srivastava, a former Indian Naval Officer. <em>“Srivastava is the consultant anesthetist at what he calls a “frontier hospital”—Raigmore, in Inverness, which serves the whole of the vast and remote Scottish Highlands…When Srivastava met Jo Cameron, six years ago, she told him that she wouldn’t need painkillers for the surgery she was about to undergo. He assumed that he was just dealing with a kindred imperturbable spirit….</em>\r\n<em>Cameron was having a trapeziectomy, an operation to remove a small bone at the base of the thumb joint…Srivastava told Cameron that, Scottish stoicism notwithstanding, he intended to use an anesthetic block during the operation. After she left the hospital, he reviewed her chart: “She had only one paracetamol”—a Tylenol—“immediately after the operation in the recovery area. And that was only because the nurses give everybody a paracetamol after surgery. I checked the full records of hip replacement the previous year: after hip surgery it was the same thing—nothing taken for pain. That’s when I called her in.”</em>\r\n<em>He remained slightly skeptical until Cameron let him perform a maneuver that anesthesiologists use on patients who are having difficulty regaining consciousness after sedation: they press hard on the inner edges of the eye sockets, and the pain shocks people awake. Cameron, of course, felt only pressure.</em>\r\n<em>Srivastava was surprised that no doctor or nurse had been curious about her pain insensitivity before…Srivastava recognized that her case was extraordinary—“This doesn’t fall into every anesthetist’s life,” he said—and also that understanding it would require him to supplement his own expertise. He developed a research protocol, and enlisted highly regarded scientists from around the world to try to figure out what caused her condition.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly is the mutation that Ms Cameron suffers from? Why exactly is it that she’s so extraordinary?\r\n<em>“Cameron does not have neuropathy: she can feel all the sensations the rest of us do, except pain. The most striking difference between her and everyone else is the way she processes endocannabinoids—chemicals that exist naturally in every human brain. Endocannabinoids mitigate our stress response, and they bind to the same receptors as the THC in the kind of cannabis you smoke. Normally, they are broken down by an enzyme called fatty acid amide hydrolase, or faah. But Cameron has a mutation on her faah gene that makes the enzyme less effective—so her endocannabinoids build up. She has extraordinarily high levels of one in particular: anandamide, whose name is derived from the Sanskrit word for “bliss.”</em>\r\n<em>About a third of the population has a mutation in the faah gene, which provides increased levels of anandamide. “That phenotype—low levels of anxiety, forgetfulness, a happy-go-lucky demeanor—isn’t representative of how everyone responds to cannabis, but you see a lot of the prototypical changes in them that occur when people consume cannabis,” said Matthew Hill, a biologist at the University of Calgary’s Hotchkiss Brain Institute, who was a co-author of the Cameron paper. The faah gene, like every gene, comes in a pair. People who have the mutation in one allele of the gene seem a little high; people who have it in both even more so. Jo Cameron is fully baked.”</em>\r\nIn fact, Ms Cameron’s mutation is such that it makes her close to being the “perfect human being”: <em>“Paul Bloom, a professor of psychology at Yale and the author of the book “Against Empathy,” maintains that relating to suffering has little to do with the capacity to be helpful and kind. He has published research suggesting that compassion, not empathy, drives altruistic behavior. (Most research on the subject blurs together empathy and compassion, but Bloom argues that this is a failure of experimental design: “The standard measures suck.”) “Empathy can actually get in the way—if you are in terrible pain and I feel so much empathy for you that, being with you, I feel it, too, I may decide to stay home,” he told me. “The Buddhists knew this. There’s all this teaching that says, ‘Don’t get sentimental. Joyously and lovingly help others, but don’t get in their heads.’ ” Cameron, he told me, was a perfect illustration of his point: “She’s my dream girl. She doesn’t feel the pain of others, so she doesn’t feel empathy per se. But she cares for others.””</em>', 'A World Without Pain: Does Hurting Make Us Human?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2801-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:39:26', '2020-01-21 05:39:26', '', 2801, 'https://marcellus.in/2801-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2804, 1, '2020-01-19 05:40:33', '2020-01-19 05:40:33', 'A month ago we highlighted a long essay on how Boeing went from moated CCP-type franchise to a company run by cost cutters. Last week, even as news broke of Boeing’s CEO being shown the door, Slate published another piece which sheds more colour on the descent of this once luminous franchise. The piece is based on the emails and instant messages that Boeing has had to show the US Congressional investigators. These mails &amp; messages show Boeing <em>“employees describing cover-ups and concern over the safety of the 737 Max airliner…he internal comments give an unvarnished view of some of those closest to the aerospace manufacturing company’s production of the 737 Max, the plane that has since crashed twice and been grounded worldwide. The nature of the crashes—particularly the functioning of the airliner’s software system—has raised troubling questions about Boeing’s willingness to pursue profit at the expense of safety, its relationship with regulators, and what exactly it knew about the problems in its marquee aircraft.”</em>\r\nAs per the New York Times, <em>“The most damaging messages included conversations among Boeing pilots and other employees about software issues and other problems with flight simulators for the Max, a plane later involved in two accidents, in late 2018 and early 2019, that killed 346 people and threw the company into chaos…The employees appear to discuss instances in which the company concealed such problems from the [Federal Aviation Administration] during the regulator’s certification of the simulators, which were used in the development of the Max, as well as in training for pilots who had not previously flown a 737.”</em>\r\nHere is a sample of the messages &amp; mails that Boeing has had to disclose to the US Congress:\r\n<em>“• “I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year,” one employee said in a message in 2018 in an apparent reference to prior dealings with the FAA.</em>\r\n<em>• “Would you put your family on a Max simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t,” one employee said to a colleague before the first crash in 2018. “No,” the colleague said.</em>\r\n<em>• “This airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys,” an employee wrote in 2017.”</em>\r\nThe messages shed interesting light on how aircraft sales personnel use the time needed by an airline to train pilots to fly a new model as a sales tool. In particular, if the aircraft sales rep can show that pilots need little or no training to fly a new model then that becomes a key item in the sales pitch. Boeing used this trick to flog the 737 Max: <em>“The messages also show how the company pushed to reduce the scope of mandatory training for pilots to fly the new aircraft in order to cut costs. Regulators ultimately agreed to only mandate computer-based training, rather than full simulator training, for pilots with experience flying another model, the 737 NG. “You can be away from an NG for 30 years and still be able to jump into a MAX? LOVE IT!!” a Boeing marketing employee said in an email after the FAA decision. “This is a big part of the operating cost structure in our marketing decks.” This week, Boeing reversed course and recommended simulator training for pilots new to the 737 Max.”</em>', 'Boeing Hands Over Internal Employee Messages Describing 737 Max as “Designed by Clowns”', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'boeing-hands-over-internal-employee-messages-describing-737-max-as-designed-by-clowns', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:51:26', '2020-01-21 05:51:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2804', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2805, 1, '2020-01-21 05:51:26', '2020-01-21 05:51:26', 'A month ago we highlighted a long essay on how Boeing went from moated CCP-type franchise to a company run by cost cutters. Last week, even as news broke of Boeing’s CEO being shown the door, Slate published another piece which sheds more colour on the descent of this once luminous franchise. The piece is based on the emails and instant messages that Boeing has had to show the US Congressional investigators. These mails &amp; messages show Boeing <em>“employees describing cover-ups and concern over the safety of the 737 Max airliner…he internal comments give an unvarnished view of some of those closest to the aerospace manufacturing company’s production of the 737 Max, the plane that has since crashed twice and been grounded worldwide. The nature of the crashes—particularly the functioning of the airliner’s software system—has raised troubling questions about Boeing’s willingness to pursue profit at the expense of safety, its relationship with regulators, and what exactly it knew about the problems in its marquee aircraft.”</em>\r\nAs per the New York Times, <em>“The most damaging messages included conversations among Boeing pilots and other employees about software issues and other problems with flight simulators for the Max, a plane later involved in two accidents, in late 2018 and early 2019, that killed 346 people and threw the company into chaos…The employees appear to discuss instances in which the company concealed such problems from the [Federal Aviation Administration] during the regulator’s certification of the simulators, which were used in the development of the Max, as well as in training for pilots who had not previously flown a 737.”</em>\r\nHere is a sample of the messages &amp; mails that Boeing has had to disclose to the US Congress:\r\n<em>“• “I still haven’t been forgiven by God for the covering up I did last year,” one employee said in a message in 2018 in an apparent reference to prior dealings with the FAA.</em>\r\n<em>• “Would you put your family on a Max simulator trained aircraft? I wouldn’t,” one employee said to a colleague before the first crash in 2018. “No,” the colleague said.</em>\r\n<em>• “This airplane is designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkeys,” an employee wrote in 2017.”</em>\r\nThe messages shed interesting light on how aircraft sales personnel use the time needed by an airline to train pilots to fly a new model as a sales tool. In particular, if the aircraft sales rep can show that pilots need little or no training to fly a new model then that becomes a key item in the sales pitch. Boeing used this trick to flog the 737 Max: <em>“The messages also show how the company pushed to reduce the scope of mandatory training for pilots to fly the new aircraft in order to cut costs. Regulators ultimately agreed to only mandate computer-based training, rather than full simulator training, for pilots with experience flying another model, the 737 NG. “You can be away from an NG for 30 years and still be able to jump into a MAX? LOVE IT!!” a Boeing marketing employee said in an email after the FAA decision. “This is a big part of the operating cost structure in our marketing decks.” This week, Boeing reversed course and recommended simulator training for pilots new to the 737 Max.”</em>', 'Boeing Hands Over Internal Employee Messages Describing 737 Max as “Designed by Clowns”', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2804-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:51:26', '2020-01-21 05:51:26', '', 2804, 'https://marcellus.in/2804-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2806, 1, '2020-01-19 05:51:37', '2020-01-19 05:51:37', 'Like India, China’s financial system is also grappling with a mountain of bad debts which now stands at a staggering USD 319bn. China has found a silver lining in the trade war with America by opening its struggling financial sector to US institutions by allowing them to apply for asset management licences. Previously, foreign investors could only operate in the secondary market to buy portfolios of four or more loans from Chinese asset management companies.\r\nApart from the big four national bad banks established in the 1990s to resolve a heap of bad loans, more than 50 provincial distressed-asset management companies were created over the past three years by the Chinese Government. However, liquidity issues and refinancing risk is taking a toll on them with one bank (Baoshang Bank Co.) already gone bankrupt. China needs fresh capital to overcome its bad debt crisis and getting them through US Institutions is probably the best way.\r\nHowever, it is not clear how exactly will US institutions make a business case out of this opportunity as Chinese provincial asset managers operate in a fuzzy environment and the quality of assets is dubious. The market remains largely unregulated, with limited oversight and disclosure. Making money for American investors looks very challenging in the Chinese distressed asset market.\r\n<em>“Foreign investors in distressed assets made a killing in the last credit cycle two decades ago. This time won’t be so lucrative. In this sector, at least, Beijing looks like it will come out on top of Trump’s “big, beautiful monster” of a trade deal.”</em>', 'China Spins a Trade-Deal Trap in Bad Debt Market', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'china-spins-a-trade-deal-trap-in-bad-debt-market', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:53:39', '2020-01-21 05:53:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2806', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2807, 1, '2020-01-21 05:53:39', '2020-01-21 05:53:39', 'Like India, China’s financial system is also grappling with a mountain of bad debts which now stands at a staggering USD 319bn. China has found a silver lining in the trade war with America by opening its struggling financial sector to US institutions by allowing them to apply for asset management licences. Previously, foreign investors could only operate in the secondary market to buy portfolios of four or more loans from Chinese asset management companies.\r\nApart from the big four national bad banks established in the 1990s to resolve a heap of bad loans, more than 50 provincial distressed-asset management companies were created over the past three years by the Chinese Government. However, liquidity issues and refinancing risk is taking a toll on them with one bank (Baoshang Bank Co.) already gone bankrupt. China needs fresh capital to overcome its bad debt crisis and getting them through US Institutions is probably the best way.\r\nHowever, it is not clear how exactly will US institutions make a business case out of this opportunity as Chinese provincial asset managers operate in a fuzzy environment and the quality of assets is dubious. The market remains largely unregulated, with limited oversight and disclosure. Making money for American investors looks very challenging in the Chinese distressed asset market.\r\n<em>“Foreign investors in distressed assets made a killing in the last credit cycle two decades ago. This time won’t be so lucrative. In this sector, at least, Beijing looks like it will come out on top of Trump’s “big, beautiful monster” of a trade deal.”</em>', 'China Spins a Trade-Deal Trap in Bad Debt Market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2806-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:53:39', '2020-01-21 05:53:39', '', 2806, 'https://marcellus.in/2806-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2808, 1, '2020-01-19 05:53:47', '2020-01-19 05:53:47', 'Technology has made the world smaller &amp; closer but there is a flip slide to it. Instant messaging apps like Slack, WhatsApp and others have changed the way we communicate with each other. Today, people feel more comfortable in picking up the phone and messaging rather than meeting face to face or getting on a call.\r\nSLACK is an instant messaging app used in corporates to communicate with each other either individually or in a group. Sean Hargrave discusses the downside of using SLACK and the dangers of getting hooked to it. Users of instant messaging apps often feel distracted. Sean quotes Lucas Miller, lecturer at Haas School of Business at Berkeley University to make his point: <em>“Technology advances usually supplant what has come before but Slack hasn’t, it’s just doubled the pain,” he says. The problem, Miller explains, goes beyond the inconvenience of monitoring another inbox. He sees Slack as a particularly “scary offender” in stopping people getting their work done because it encourages them to be constantly distracted. It\'s scary because messenger-based systems directly tap into how humans seek to reward themselves, and the long term result is unhealthy.</em>\r\n<em>People end up checking their app frequently to stay updated on work rather than doing work. Another problem of using instant messaging app in workplace is that your seniors/boss are part of the messaging group and fear of being constantly monitored increases significantly.”</em>\r\nWe must make sure that we control messaging apps and not the other way around else this new age apps can cause havoc in our professional and personal lives.', 'How Slack ruined work', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-slack-ruined-work', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:54:59', '2020-01-21 05:54:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2808', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2809, 1, '2020-01-21 05:54:05', '2020-01-21 05:54:05', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:54:05', '2020-01-21 05:54:05', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2810, 1, '2020-01-21 05:54:59', '2020-01-21 05:54:59', 'Technology has made the world smaller &amp; closer but there is a flip slide to it. Instant messaging apps like Slack, WhatsApp and others have changed the way we communicate with each other. Today, people feel more comfortable in picking up the phone and messaging rather than meeting face to face or getting on a call.\r\nSLACK is an instant messaging app used in corporates to communicate with each other either individually or in a group. Sean Hargrave discusses the downside of using SLACK and the dangers of getting hooked to it. Users of instant messaging apps often feel distracted. Sean quotes Lucas Miller, lecturer at Haas School of Business at Berkeley University to make his point: <em>“Technology advances usually supplant what has come before but Slack hasn’t, it’s just doubled the pain,” he says. The problem, Miller explains, goes beyond the inconvenience of monitoring another inbox. He sees Slack as a particularly “scary offender” in stopping people getting their work done because it encourages them to be constantly distracted. It\'s scary because messenger-based systems directly tap into how humans seek to reward themselves, and the long term result is unhealthy.</em>\r\n<em>People end up checking their app frequently to stay updated on work rather than doing work. Another problem of using instant messaging app in workplace is that your seniors/boss are part of the messaging group and fear of being constantly monitored increases significantly.”</em>\r\nWe must make sure that we control messaging apps and not the other way around else this new age apps can cause havoc in our professional and personal lives.', 'How Slack ruined work', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2808-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:54:59', '2020-01-21 05:54:59', '', 2808, 'https://marcellus.in/2808-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2811, 1, '2020-01-19 05:55:06', '2020-01-19 05:55:06', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'phil-fisher-the-art-of-holding-on', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:05:50', '2020-01-21 06:05:50', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2811', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2815, 1, '2020-01-21 06:00:41', '2020-01-21 06:00:41', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:00:41', '2020-01-21 06:00:41', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2812, 1, '2020-01-21 05:56:21', '2020-01-21 05:56:21', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long.  He is <em>the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price</em>. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3f67521fd4&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3f67521fd4%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1579664830538000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGDYKZ7Ao2BhP5DJfq4QRM7Cw8p3w\">here</a>)\r\n<em>“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.</em>\r\n<em>Fisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.</em>\r\n<em>He’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.</em>\r\n<em>That last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.</em>\r\n<em>The difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:</em>\r\n<em>If you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…</em>\r\n<em>If I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.</em>\r\n<em>That’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.</em>\r\n<em>And there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.</em>\r\n<em>But because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.</em>\r\n<em>If the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.</em>\r\n<em>Now, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.</em>\r\n<em>Fisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”</em>', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:56:21', '2020-01-21 05:56:21', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2813, 1, '2020-01-19 05:56:37', '2020-01-19 05:56:37', 'The movie industry globally has had this Sci- Fi sub-genre \"Climatic Apocalypse\" movies, which gained momentum in the 90s and is still profitably milking it. If you watch them again (and tone down the magnitude and special effects) you will find it is more relatable and it is happening for real. Eerily unravelling like Nostradamus predictions that few believe in but some of those happen to coincide with real life events.\r\nIt is almost ironical that anything good can come out of the constantly capricious weather. But unlike the movie industry, the most obvious industry profiting from consequences of global warming is the weather industry.\r\nA niche weather data industry that would gather data from various sources and based on in depth parameters allowing them to collate, analyse and sell this information to relevant sectors. <em>\" ..companies may increasingly be paying for access to private data, trend analyses and forecasts, as part of the expansion of a new weather industry that is exploiting modern tools such as machine learning, automated sensing, internet-connected devices, and cloud computing.\"</em>\r\nWeather is a sector which is predominantly owned by governments globally. But with the onset of many private weather data collectors this might change soon<em>.\r\n“We are at a tipping point where the technology of weather forecasting, which was dominated by government and is still is, is going to change,” says Shimon Elkabetz, CEO of ClimaCell.</em> The unified data from public and private would mean accuracy, verifiability and more actionable information. Imagine getting personalized forecasts  like \"road surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, moisture and pressure. It would mean we might soon be able to traverse small scale climatic events and make our lives safer and more efficient,\r\nGetting hourly forecasts, avoiding slippery spots and storms, or bands of heavy rain and snow while on the road/ocean/ air or anywhere on Earth might soon be a story of very near future.', 'What\'s in the Forecast: Private Weather Predictions', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'whats-in-the-forecast-private-weather-predictions', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:57:58', '2020-01-21 05:57:58', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2813', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2814, 1, '2020-01-21 05:57:58', '2020-01-21 05:57:58', 'The movie industry globally has had this Sci- Fi sub-genre \"Climatic Apocalypse\" movies, which gained momentum in the 90s and is still profitably milking it. If you watch them again (and tone down the magnitude and special effects) you will find it is more relatable and it is happening for real. Eerily unravelling like Nostradamus predictions that few believe in but some of those happen to coincide with real life events.\r\nIt is almost ironical that anything good can come out of the constantly capricious weather. But unlike the movie industry, the most obvious industry profiting from consequences of global warming is the weather industry.\r\nA niche weather data industry that would gather data from various sources and based on in depth parameters allowing them to collate, analyse and sell this information to relevant sectors. <em>\" ..companies may increasingly be paying for access to private data, trend analyses and forecasts, as part of the expansion of a new weather industry that is exploiting modern tools such as machine learning, automated sensing, internet-connected devices, and cloud computing.\"</em>\r\nWeather is a sector which is predominantly owned by governments globally. But with the onset of many private weather data collectors this might change soon<em>.\r\n“We are at a tipping point where the technology of weather forecasting, which was dominated by government and is still is, is going to change,” says Shimon Elkabetz, CEO of ClimaCell.</em> The unified data from public and private would mean accuracy, verifiability and more actionable information. Imagine getting personalized forecasts  like \"road surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, moisture and pressure. It would mean we might soon be able to traverse small scale climatic events and make our lives safer and more efficient,\r\nGetting hourly forecasts, avoiding slippery spots and storms, or bands of heavy rain and snow while on the road/ocean/ air or anywhere on Earth might soon be a story of very near future.', 'What\'s in the Forecast: Private Weather Predictions', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2813-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 05:57:58', '2020-01-21 05:57:58', '', 2813, 'https://marcellus.in/2813-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2816, 1, '2020-01-21 06:01:41', '2020-01-21 06:01:41', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:01:41', '2020-01-21 06:01:41', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2817, 1, '2020-01-21 06:02:24', '2020-01-21 06:02:24', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:02:24', '2020-01-21 06:02:24', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2818, 1, '2020-01-21 06:03:31', '2020-01-21 06:03:31', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:03:31', '2020-01-21 06:03:31', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2819, 1, '2020-01-21 06:04:19', '2020-01-21 06:04:19', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:04:19', '2020-01-21 06:04:19', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2820, 1, '2020-01-21 06:05:50', '2020-01-21 06:05:50', 'At Marcellus, we believe that identifying a great company is hard enough, selling them is harder and continuing to hold them for long is hardest. Phil Fisher is a legend in the world of investing and had a similar investment philosophy of identifying great compounders and holding them for long. He is the man who influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nFisher focused on identifying companies that can grow at a high rate over long periods of time. These companies were rare and always used to trade at a premium and the opportunity loss in selling these compounders too early are very high.\r\nWe at Marcellus also give a lot of importance to longevity of company’s business and ability of the firm to compound their earnings consistently over long period of terms. (please read our latest newsletter on the subject here)\r\n“Selling is the more difficult part of investing than buying. Holding on is even harder. Phil Fisher had a philosophy around selling — or rather, not selling — that may be helpful to more than his stock-picking fans. But first, a little background.\r\nFisher was the original long-term investor. He just did it in a very highly concentrated way, a side effect of his strategy.\r\nHe’s the guy that influenced Warren Buffett’s transition from Ben Graham’s buying companies at a wonderful price to his wonderful companies at a fair price. The key change was essentially paying a higher multiple (but still undervalued price) in exchange for a longer runway.\r\nThat last bit is key. Fisher’s philosophy is built on finding the few companies that can grow at a sustainably high rate over long periods of time. While the typical Graham investment might have a holding period of a few years (1-3 years), Fisher’s was decades.\r\nThe difference in holding periods hints at the prevalence of opportunities for each strategy. Graham had a small steady supply, while Fisher’s were rare. So when it came time to sell, Fisher’s response was hopefully never…not even if it gets “expensive.” His investment in Motorola is a great example:\r\nIf you are in the right companies, the potential rise can be so enormous that everything else is secondary. Every $1,000 I and my clients put into Motorola in 1957 is now worth $1,993,846 — after all the ups and downs of the stock and of the market…\r\nIf I’d sold Motorola because I thought it was overpriced 10 or 15 years ago, chances are I would not have known when to get back in, and I would have missed a tremendous profit. If one of my stocks gets overpriced, I warn my clients that things may be unpleasant for a little while but it will rise to a new peak later.\r\nThat’s over a 20% annual return on his Motorola purchase.\r\nAnd there’s the rub. Companies that grow at a high rate of return, have stocks that earn a high rate of return. Great companies, that can sustain high growth rates, trade at a premium. They’re rare. So the demand for high future growth commands a higher multiple. Sometimes, changes in demand can throw prices out of wack.\r\nBut because high compounders are so rare, there are only a few reasons to sell: If I have a deep conviction about a stock but it has not performed after three years, I will sell it. If I think management or the basic situation has deteriorated, I will sell.\r\nIf the only thing that’s changed for the business is the stock price, selling a rarity makes no sense. It’s better to hold on and suffer a little bit, then to sell and miss the compounding potential. The price still matters (more so when buying than selling), but only at the extremes. Otherwise, the opportunity lost in selling a compounder is too high. Selling Motorola “10 or 15 years” early because it’s “overpriced,” meant missing out on the compounding effect of a 20% return over the full 40 years. Because the real benefits of compounding come at the tail end of a really long run.\r\nNow, if it only took a rearview mirror to find these gems.\r\nFisher was brilliant, had patience, and guts. He held a handful of stocks for 15 to 20 years (longer in some cases) despite huge swings in price. He had clients that bought in. And he had an above-average ability to avoid all the typical tendencies that trip up other investors. So difficult is an understatement. The more important takeaway is that over decades, a stock will earn a similar return as the business earns. A basket of businesses with sustainable high growth rates have stocks that compound at a similar rate. And selling early can be costly.Conveniently enough, a basket of stocks, who’s businesses grow at a similar rate to the market average will earn a market return. Barring some material change in those businesses, the price swings should be ignored, aside from extremes. Long term investors should focus on what matters: business growth not price swings.”', 'Phil Fisher: The Art of Holding On', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2811-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 06:05:50', '2020-01-21 06:05:50', '', 2811, 'https://marcellus.in/2811-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2821, 1, '2020-01-21 12:52:22', '2020-01-21 12:52:22', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosoph\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Scheme Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1 Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only) Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) Quarterly\r\n2 Discretionary (Fixed &amp; Variable Fees) Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3 Discretionary (variable fees only) Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 50 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client.\r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client.\r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client).\r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-21 12:52:22', '2020-01-21 12:52:22', '', 749, 'https://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2824, 1, '2020-01-23 14:17:58', '2020-01-23 14:17:58', '<strong>20 of today’s Nifty constituents are highly likely to be booted out over the next decade. We outline how you can identify the exits (relatively easy to do) and the entrants into the Nifty (a little harder to do) over the next decade. If you are good at spotting the 20 entrants into the Nifty you are likely to deliver 40% CAGR over the next decade.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Though not a single household was wired for electricity in 1880, nearly 100 percent of US urban homes were wired by 1940, and in the same time interval the percentage of urban homes with clean running piped water and sewer pipes for waste disposal had reached 94 percent. More than 80 percent of urban homes in 1940 had interior flush toilets, 73 percent had gas for heating and cooking…In short, the 1870 houses were isolated from the rest of the world, but 1940 houses were ‘networked’, most having the five connections of electricity, gas, telephone, water and sewer…Networking inherently implies equality. Everyone, rich and poor, is plugged into the same electric, water, sewer, gas and telephone network.” </em>– <strong>Robert Gordon</strong> in “The Rise &amp; Fall of American Growth” (2016)\r\n\r\n[Note: A shortened version of this piece was first published in Forbes India on 3<sup>rd</sup> Jan 2020.]\r\n\r\nThe Nifty typically churns by 40% over a ten-year period implying that 20 of the current Nifty constituents will find themselves ejected from India’s most actively traded benchmark index whilst an equal number will find themselves entering the index. If you or I can second guess some of these exits/entrants we will improve our chances of generating returns significantly higher than the long term returns of investing in the Nifty (the total returns from the Nifty were 10% per annum in the decade running upto 1<sup>st</sup> December 2019). For example, if we had taken the Nifty as it is stood a decade ago and invested only in those 30 companies which have stayed in the Nifty through the intervening ten-year period, our returns would have been 19% per annum.\r\n\r\nGoing by the historical trend since the Nifty was created, almost all the entrants into the Nifty over the next decade will come from 100 stocks currently just underneath the Nifty. In order to assess which of these 100 companies will find themselves in the benchmark a decade hence, it is worth first trying to assess how the Indian economy will change over the coming decade.\r\n\r\nWe see three noteworthy changes taking place in India over the next decade:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>The continuing formalisation of the economy and the concentration of profit share in almost every sector in the hands of one or two companies.</li>\r\n 	<li>The formalisation of savings, away from physical savings, and toward financial savings.</li>\r\n 	<li>The continuing formalisation of retail and, more generally, of distribution channels in India.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nLet’s delve deeper into each of these changes.\r\n\r\n<strong>1) Formalisation of the economy &amp; concentration of profit share:</strong> India is already an economy with extraordinary levels of profit share concentration in many key sectors. For example, in paints (Asian Paints, Berger Paints), premium cooking oil (Marico, Adani), biscuits (Britannia, Parle), hair oil (Marico, Bajaj Corp), infant milk powder (Nestle), cigarettes (ITC), adhesives (Pidilite), waterproofing (Pidilite again), trucks (Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland), small cars (Maruti, Hyundai) we already have one or two companies accounting for 80% of the profits generated in the sector. Now this trend looks likely to spread to more fragmented sectors where hitherto the unorganised players had greater profit share.\r\n\r\nLeaving aside Financial Services and Retail – which we will discuss further on in this piece – there are several other large sectors where the impact of the: (a) networking of the economy (widely available cheap broadband, low cost domestic flights, a reliable &amp; extensive road network, widespread availability of banking services) ; (b) the impact of GST and the attendant crackdown on black money look likely to compress profit share into one or two hands. Smaller players who don’t use technology optimally, who cannot build deep competitive moats and who cannot access funding at low cost will die. Effectively, the networking of the Indian economy has sounded the death knell for the small-scale local manufacturer/retailer who was hitherto insulated from competition from the market leading player.\r\n\r\nSectors where I can personally see this dynamic playing out – in terms of the research that the team in Marcellus does - are the entire building materials space barring cement (where the cost of moving material naturally creates local champions), most FMCG categories including hitherto niche categories like Indian snack food, electricals in the broadest sense of the word (lighting, fans, kitchenware, cables, wiring, consumer durables) and most auto ancillaries (where the ability of the replacement market to support spare parts suppliers who operate in the black market will wither away).\r\n\r\nThe rewards for the winners is huge – they get the profits of the entire sector and market cap in excess of US$10 billion. The losers will be numerous and understandably they will make a lot of noise because of the sheer amount of pain they will go through. Many SME owners will find that their firm’s return on capital will fall well below cost of capital. They will also find that their children will prefer to enjoy life in Western cities rather than grinding it out in a factory for measly returns. The employees of these SMEs will also find their livelihoods squeezed. This in turn will create a natural vote bank for our politicians to canvass with all too obvious implications for the taxes that the rest of us will pay.\r\n\r\n<strong>2) Financialisation of savings: </strong>As I travel around India, I see that in small town India owners of SME businesses have understood the devastating implications of not being able to retire with a large enough corpus. The RBI’s remarkably well researched August 2017 Household Financial Committee report says that 95% of Indian households’ stock of wealth is in physical assets (see: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=785729a827&amp;e=5648501957\">https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112DD314ECF5C07.PDF</a>).\r\n\r\nAs most people now realise that physical assets struggle to keep up even with the rate of inflation, SME owners are first turning their black money savings into white money by paying Income Tax. Then they are searching for providers of financial savings products who can give them steady compounding. As a result, in this economic downturn, equity inflows into mutual funds are holding up as are insurance premiums written by even third rung insurers (see the data on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=10ef38b1ec&amp;e=5648501957\">https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund</a>)\r\n\r\nThe financialisation of savings has happened to a certain extent in big cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Chennai. In smaller cities, most SME owners have only a smattering of financial assets (usually fixed deposits and Life Insurance Company policies). Furthermore, in smaller cities, the market for real estate is completely frozen solid. There have been no deals all year long in several of the smaller cities we have visited. Hence a big part of the impetus towards financial savings has come – and will continue to come – from small town India.\r\n\r\nWith potentially US$500 billion per annum of financial savings arising from annual income and with potentially another US$100 billion per annum arising from the balance sheet shift (from physical to financial), my back-of-the-envelope estimates suggest that the annual flow into financial savings could triple over the next decade (from US$200 billion today to US$600 billion). That in turn will not only create an environment conducive for insurers and asset managers, it should also bring down the cost of capital for the country as a whole. [To understand this maths in more detail, see my blog: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=87657b7f11&amp;e=5648501957\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-rising-equity-inflows-from-small-town-india/</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>3) Formalisation of retail &amp; distribution channels: </strong>30 years ago as a newspaper delivery boy in London, I saw the English high street change. Of the 60-odd shops to whom I would deliver the evening newspaper, the first to shut down were the travel agents (disrupted by the rise of online). Then by the early noughties the convenience stores (which used to sell candies, biscuits, bus passes, etc) started shutting down disrupted not so much by online but by: (a) the large supermarket which had opened a couple of kilometres down the road; and (b) the convenience-store format rolled out by the large supermarkets for local neighbourhoods such as the one I grew up in. An additional challenge for the owners of the convenience stores – which were usually run by Gujarati migrants – were that their children were landing lucrative jobs in the City of London and hence uninterested in running the family store.\r\n\r\nA similar challenge is now befalling the kirana stores in the suburb of Mumbai where I reside. And as the local kirana stores wind up, the beneficiary in my neighbourhood is the local DMart and a few enterprising shopkeepers who are spending money in growing their stores and refurbishing them to create 7/11-type formats. With the decline of the kirana store, the traditional FMCG distributor is also dying.\r\n\r\nIn fact, if I look around India high streets more generally I see that local eateries too face rising competition not just from Starbucks and Dominos but also from the organised ice cream parlours (Haagen Dazs, Baskin Robbins, Naturals) and from Indian fast food chains (Chaayos, Theobroma, Busago, etc). The same applies in the retailing of other items (clothes – Westside, jewelry – Titan, electronics – Chroma). As the economy formalises, it doesn’t take much to figure out who will win this unequal fight.\r\n\r\n<strong>Implications for the Nifty</strong>\r\nIf we look at the Nifty as it stands today, we can see a number of metals &amp; mining companies, power &amp; infrastructure companies, old-style conglomerates who struggle with rational capital allocation, and public-sector banks. We find 23 such companies within the Nifty and we can say with a degree of conviction that most of these companies will be out of the Nifty a decade hence. As highlighted at the beginning of this note, ejecting these companies from your portfolio is likely to bump up your decadal returns from investing in large cap Indian companies.\r\n\r\nLooking at the more positive side of Nifty churn, which are the companies which will make it into the Nifty? Going by the three structural trends identified above and using Marcellus’ proprietary forensic accounting and capital allocation models, the following companies appear to be potential Nifty entrants over the next decade:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Pidilite</li>\r\n 	<li>Berger Paints</li>\r\n 	<li>Divi’s Lab</li>\r\n 	<li>Marico</li>\r\n 	<li>Info Edge</li>\r\n 	<li>Abbott India</li>\r\n 	<li>Page Industries</li>\r\n 	<li>ICICI Lombard</li>\r\n 	<li>Dabur</li>\r\n 	<li>HDFC Life</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nWhilst we cannot possibly tell you in a public forum what returns the above companies will give you, we know that had we been clever enough ten years ago to predict the names of the 20 companies which have entered the Nifty in the interim period, our portfolio would have compounded at 40% per annum. (Disclosure: the first eight of the ten stocks mentioned above feature in most of Marcellus Investment Managers’ clients’ portfolios.)\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers and the author of “The Unusual Billionaires” and “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”.</em>\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bb968195a8&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in</a>', 'How the Nifty will change in the coming decade?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-nifty-will-change-in-the-coming-decade', '', '', '2020-01-23 14:17:58', '2020-01-23 14:17:58', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2824', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2822, 1, '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '<ul>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Feb_2019_v3_Letterhead_SN-compressed-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> February 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Newsletter_Mar_2019_vLetterhead-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> March 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Newsletter_Apr_2019_vLetterhead_SN-min.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> April 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Marcellus_Newsletter_May_2019_R-compressed.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> May 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n 	<li>\r\n<h3><i><img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-783\" src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/dd.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"129\" height=\"36\" /></i><a href=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Marcellus_CCP_Newsletter_June_2019-2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong> June 2019 </strong></span></a></h3>\r\n</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<h3><em> </em></h3>', 'Newsletters Consistent Compounders', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '131-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '2020-01-23 10:43:12', '', 131, 'https://marcellus.in/131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2991, 1, '2020-03-03 08:44:06', '2020-03-03 08:44:06', '', 'Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '15-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-03 08:44:06', '2020-03-03 08:44:06', '', 15, 'https://marcellus.in/15-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2826, 1, '2020-01-27 05:28:39', '2020-01-27 05:28:39', 'This article draws an interest parallel between capital allocation in the corporate world and that in the world of football in the specific context of GE and Manchester United. The author contends that <em>“Like GE, the club once dominated its field but has lately chucked away its cash on terrible acquisitions.”</em>\r\nSo, how did these two institutions lose their way? At the heart of the problem seems the genius of their all-conquering leaders who – when they are replaced – cannot seem to be replaced with equally talented leaders: <em>“Both are storied giants used to dominating their respective fields, who enjoyed their heyday in the 1990s. In Alex Ferguson and Jack Welch respectively, they had dominant leaders who set an all-but-impossible standard to follow (even if there are questions about what they left to their unfortunate successors).”</em>\r\nThe successors to Welch and Ferguson screwed up on capital allocations says the author: <em>“Where Man Utd has spent hundreds of millions of pounds over the past eight years buying players such as French midfielder Paul Pogba and Belgian attacker Romelu Lukaku, GE went on a spending spree that included the 12.4 billion-euro ($13.8 billion) acquisition of Alstom SA’s power generation business. That deal’s entire value was ultimately written down.</em>\r\n<em>When Jeff Immelt took over as GE’s chief executive officer in 2001, it was the biggest company in the S&amp;P 500. Over his 16-year tenure, he spent some $200 billion buying companies, yet shareholders enjoyed annual returns of just 0.5%. In the same period, the S&amp;P 500 was averaging returns of 7.4% a year.</em>\r\n<em>Man Utd is much the same. After winning 12 English Premier League titles in 20 years, the club has won just one championship since its 2012 initial public offering. That’s even as it spent a net 740 million pounds ($965 million) through June 2019 buying new players. In the same period, its bitter rival Liverpool FC spent spent less than half that amount, yet was crowned European champion last year and is running away with the Premier League this season.”</em>\r\nFootball fall and investors in listed companies often whine that their club/companies are NOT investing enough. In this simplistic view of the world, capex by itself is seen as a virtuous activity. The author argues that the quality of capex is more important than the quantity: <em>“The problem isn’t that Man Utd has skimped on player investment — the numbers show that it hasn’t, at least in recent years. But it has invested poorly. A useful point of comparison is Juventus, which occupies a similar status in Italy, having won more Italian championships, known as Scudettos, than any other team.</em>\r\n<em>After the Turin-based club, run by the same Agnelli family that controls Fiat Chrysler Automotive NV, sold Pogba to Man Utd for 89 million pounds, it reinvested the proceeds in a string of players who subsequently led the team to the final of the Champions League, Europe’s top club competition. In the 12 months after Pogba’s departure, Juventus’s share price climbed 141%....”</em>', 'Manchester United Is the General Electric of Football', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2825-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:28:39', '2020-01-27 05:28:39', '', 2825, 'https://marcellus.in/2825-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2827, 1, '2020-01-26 05:28:50', '2020-01-26 05:28:50', 'It is worth ignoring the puerile title of this piece and focusing on the more substantive point made by the piece: <em>“</em><em>Besides making working lives more enjoyable, there is strong evidence that fun in the workplace packs a powerful punch in terms of organisational benefits. For example, I </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2e2ee87eab&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2e2ee87eab%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE82N51j20a6JA5pNbhFc0lqzrGKg\">researched the restaurant industry</a><em> (in collaboration with John Michel from Loyola University and Michael Tews from Penn State in the US), an environment with more than 60% employee turnover annually, and found that workers who socialised more in the workplace and who saw their co-workers and the workplace as more fun were less likely to leave.</em>\r\n<em>Fun in the workplace can also foster more positive attitudes, help teams become more cohesive, and help people deal with or recover from stressful work experiences, while also developing stronger relationships.”</em>\r\nThe author says that until the 1990s the dominant paradigm in the office or the factory was the maxim laid down by Henry Ford: <em>“men work for two reasons. One is for wages, and one is for fear of losing their jobs”.</em>\r\nAll of that changed when Silicon Valley giants like Google realised that they could make more money if their workers were more creative: <em>“But the script for the workplace as a fun environment was rewritten by numerous Silicon Valley start-ups during the dot-com boom. They are now epitomised by the office perks that come with tech companies like Google. These encompass, variously: music and art studios, mini-golf courses, ping pong tables, foosball, climbing walls and even nap pods.”</em>\r\nSo how can companies create relaxed, constructive environment for work and play in the office? <em>“Our research has identified a range of factors that affect the way people judge events to be fun or not.</em>\r\n<em>1. Make fun voluntary: The more voluntary an activity, the more likely it is people will see it as fun and enjoy participating…</em>\r\n<em>2. Fun from the top: Workers are also likely to value fun in the workplace more highly if managers and leaders are supportive of fun. In simple terms, it is the difference between a manager who, as everyone runs to the break room to have birthday cake, signals “great, let’s all go and celebrate and then we will get back to work”, and one that mutters “here we go again, people are going to get distracted and we will lose 30 minutes of work time”….</em>\r\n<em>3. Recognise different personalities: Personality traits are important. Optimistic people with a positive approach to life are more likely to treat fun activities favourably. Organisations that have a strong culture of fun and believe in the benefits of hiring people that fit the culture of their organisation are more likely to have employees who share fun as a common value…</em>\r\n<em>4. Types of fun: The type of activity makes a difference. The research I’ve mentioned suggest events involving food, celebrations of personal milestones and workplace outings are best received. Avoid events where people risk making a fool of themselves in front of their co-workers…”</em>', 'Why every company needs a Chief Fun Officer', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-every-company-needs-a-chief-fun-officer', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:30:04', '2020-01-27 05:30:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2827', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2828, 1, '2020-01-27 05:30:04', '2020-01-27 05:30:04', 'It is worth ignoring the puerile title of this piece and focusing on the more substantive point made by the piece: <em>“</em><em>Besides making working lives more enjoyable, there is strong evidence that fun in the workplace packs a powerful punch in terms of organisational benefits. For example, I </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2e2ee87eab&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2e2ee87eab%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE82N51j20a6JA5pNbhFc0lqzrGKg\">researched the restaurant industry</a><em> (in collaboration with John Michel from Loyola University and Michael Tews from Penn State in the US), an environment with more than 60% employee turnover annually, and found that workers who socialised more in the workplace and who saw their co-workers and the workplace as more fun were less likely to leave.</em>\r\n<em>Fun in the workplace can also foster more positive attitudes, help teams become more cohesive, and help people deal with or recover from stressful work experiences, while also developing stronger relationships.”</em>\r\nThe author says that until the 1990s the dominant paradigm in the office or the factory was the maxim laid down by Henry Ford: <em>“men work for two reasons. One is for wages, and one is for fear of losing their jobs”.</em>\r\nAll of that changed when Silicon Valley giants like Google realised that they could make more money if their workers were more creative: <em>“But the script for the workplace as a fun environment was rewritten by numerous Silicon Valley start-ups during the dot-com boom. They are now epitomised by the office perks that come with tech companies like Google. These encompass, variously: music and art studios, mini-golf courses, ping pong tables, foosball, climbing walls and even nap pods.”</em>\r\nSo how can companies create relaxed, constructive environment for work and play in the office? <em>“Our research has identified a range of factors that affect the way people judge events to be fun or not.</em>\r\n<em>1. Make fun voluntary: The more voluntary an activity, the more likely it is people will see it as fun and enjoy participating…</em>\r\n<em>2. Fun from the top: Workers are also likely to value fun in the workplace more highly if managers and leaders are supportive of fun. In simple terms, it is the difference between a manager who, as everyone runs to the break room to have birthday cake, signals “great, let’s all go and celebrate and then we will get back to work”, and one that mutters “here we go again, people are going to get distracted and we will lose 30 minutes of work time”….</em>\r\n<em>3. Recognise different personalities: Personality traits are important. Optimistic people with a positive approach to life are more likely to treat fun activities favourably. Organisations that have a strong culture of fun and believe in the benefits of hiring people that fit the culture of their organisation are more likely to have employees who share fun as a common value…</em>\r\n<em>4. Types of fun: The type of activity makes a difference. The research I’ve mentioned suggest events involving food, celebrations of personal milestones and workplace outings are best received. Avoid events where people risk making a fool of themselves in front of their co-workers…”</em>', 'Why every company needs a Chief Fun Officer', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2827-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:30:04', '2020-01-27 05:30:04', '', 2827, 'https://marcellus.in/2827-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2829, 1, '2020-01-26 05:30:43', '2020-01-26 05:30:43', 'In his incredibly fascinating book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3bdee3df69&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3bdee3df69%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFdN3ItZ_yyOtikp6GQKEM8PqMbYg\">Loonshots</a>, Safi Bahcall discusses how serendipity plays a role in most big inventions. This aspect is even more accentuated in the field of material science. As this piece by Neil Savage in Nature shows, humans have always explored the different properties of various materials available on the planet to solve a real world problem or make the world a better place – from vulcanised rubber in automobiles to silicon in electronics to rare earth for reusable batteries to plastics in pretty much everything we use.\r\n<em>“The hunt for new, commercially viable materials with highly sought-after properties is one of the most competitive pursuits in scientific research. It offers clear applications, strong paths to market and is among the most interdisciplinary of the physical-sciences research fields. Even so, relatively few discoveries, such as organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and, to a lesser extent, graphene, rise above the throng of nascent materials; many languish in the scientific literature.</em>\r\n<em>The stakes are high: a new material in the right place and at the right time can launch a multibillion-dollar industry. Consider what happened for Charles Goodyear. When he mixed sulfur with natural rubber and invented vulcanized rubber in 1839, his discovery gave rise to a multitude of new rubber products with unprecedented tensile strength and elasticity. It advanced the automobile industry, freeing motorists from unwieldy iron wheels. With the smoother ride offered by rubber tyres came the impetus to create the first gas-powered cars. More recently, global industries producing smartphones, wearable medical devices, renewable energy and new aeroplanes have emerged from materials science research.”</em>\r\nMaterial science projects inherently have a long gestation, which means that any pursuit to discover materials to solve current problems will likely take years if not decades given time taken for discovery and then the bigger challenge of commercialisation for industrial use. Indeed, the converse is equally true as materials discovered today to have certain unique properties may not have a corresponding real world application for years to come.\r\n<em>“It can take decades for a new material to have an impact. The worldwide market for OLEDs reached US$19.45 billion in 2017, and is expected to grow to $81.76 billion by 2026. But, the OLEDS in your TV are a world away from the first experiments in the late 1950s to generate light from organic materials.</em>\r\n<em>Stephen Forrest, a physicist at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, who invented phosphorescent OLEDs, is well aware of that. … “The technologies that we had [at launch] were not particularly compelling to the market,” Forrest says. “Things happened both within the marketplace and within our lab and it sort of exploded, and now we have a $20-billion global display market based on OLEDs, and every one of them use our materials.”</em>\r\n<em>…Companies often say it takes at least 10 years for a material to move from the laboratory to the market, says Zhenan Bao, a chemical engineer at Stanford University in California who works with nanomaterials and flexible electronics, including organic semiconductors and carbon-based circuits. In 2010, Bao’s lab spun out C3 Nano, a company that makes a flexible, transparent electrode based on silver nanowires. It’s being used in some foldable displays and mobile phones available in China, she says, and may soon spread elsewhere. Since she was at Bell Labs (now owned by Nokia) 20 years ago, she has been working on foldable displays that could fit more phone screen in a given space.</em>\r\n<em>…Graphene could be an important component of the necessary flexible electronics for Bao’s electronic skins. Its unique properties have excited scientists since the material was first isolated in 2004. A one-atom-thick layer of carbon, graphene is stronger than diamond, has the highest electron mobility of any known material, and is more than 97% transparent to wavelengths of light from the ultraviolet to the far infrared. Those properties could come in handy, but so far, no one has come up with an application that has had much of an impact in the marketplace. Grand View Research estimates the global market for graphene was only $43 million in 2017, mainly in applications such as protective coatings for flexible electronics.”</em>\r\nArtificial intelligence is helping us out here as well. Algorithms that parse decades of research to match a current need are being used to address this temporal challenge in material science.\r\n<em>“Machine-learning techniques are being used to comb through published research to unearth materials already discovered but forgotten, and to predict the properties of new materials that don’t yet exist. This replaces the trial-and-error approaches the field has relied on. According to James Warren, a physicist at the US National Institute of Standards and Technology in Gaithersburg, Maryland, in a very dynamic field it’s one of the most exciting developments in recent years.</em>\r\n<em>Warren is director of the Materials Genome Initiative (MGI), a multi-agency project set up by the US government in 2011. The database of materials and their properties is open and available to researchers, to help move those materials from journal pages into potential products, says Warren. “The whole point of MGI is literally to bridge that gap,” he says.</em>\r\n<em>In just a few years, he says, it may be possible to tell a computer that you want to build a battery with a certain storage capacity, lifetime and cost, and have it suggest the optimal combination of materials to make it happen.”</em>', 'Tomorrow’s industries: from OLEDs to nanomaterials', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'tomorrows-industries-from-oleds-to-nanomaterials', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:32:36', '2020-01-27 05:32:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2829', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2830, 1, '2020-01-27 05:32:36', '2020-01-27 05:32:36', 'In his incredibly fascinating book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3bdee3df69&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3bdee3df69%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFdN3ItZ_yyOtikp6GQKEM8PqMbYg\">Loonshots</a>, Safi Bahcall discusses how serendipity plays a role in most big inventions. This aspect is even more accentuated in the field of material science. As this piece by Neil Savage in Nature shows, humans have always explored the different properties of various materials available on the planet to solve a real world problem or make the world a better place – from vulcanised rubber in automobiles to silicon in electronics to rare earth for reusable batteries to plastics in pretty much everything we use.\r\n<em>“The hunt for new, commercially viable materials with highly sought-after properties is one of the most competitive pursuits in scientific research. It offers clear applications, strong paths to market and is among the most interdisciplinary of the physical-sciences research fields. Even so, relatively few discoveries, such as organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and, to a lesser extent, graphene, rise above the throng of nascent materials; many languish in the scientific literature.</em>\r\n<em>The stakes are high: a new material in the right place and at the right time can launch a multibillion-dollar industry. Consider what happened for Charles Goodyear. When he mixed sulfur with natural rubber and invented vulcanized rubber in 1839, his discovery gave rise to a multitude of new rubber products with unprecedented tensile strength and elasticity. It advanced the automobile industry, freeing motorists from unwieldy iron wheels. With the smoother ride offered by rubber tyres came the impetus to create the first gas-powered cars. More recently, global industries producing smartphones, wearable medical devices, renewable energy and new aeroplanes have emerged from materials science research.”</em>\r\nMaterial science projects inherently have a long gestation, which means that any pursuit to discover materials to solve current problems will likely take years if not decades given time taken for discovery and then the bigger challenge of commercialisation for industrial use. Indeed, the converse is equally true as materials discovered today to have certain unique properties may not have a corresponding real world application for years to come.\r\n<em>“It can take decades for a new material to have an impact. The worldwide market for OLEDs reached US$19.45 billion in 2017, and is expected to grow to $81.76 billion by 2026. But, the OLEDS in your TV are a world away from the first experiments in the late 1950s to generate light from organic materials.</em>\r\n<em>Stephen Forrest, a physicist at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, who invented phosphorescent OLEDs, is well aware of that. … “The technologies that we had [at launch] were not particularly compelling to the market,” Forrest says. “Things happened both within the marketplace and within our lab and it sort of exploded, and now we have a $20-billion global display market based on OLEDs, and every one of them use our materials.”</em>\r\n<em>…Companies often say it takes at least 10 years for a material to move from the laboratory to the market, says Zhenan Bao, a chemical engineer at Stanford University in California who works with nanomaterials and flexible electronics, including organic semiconductors and carbon-based circuits. In 2010, Bao’s lab spun out C3 Nano, a company that makes a flexible, transparent electrode based on silver nanowires. It’s being used in some foldable displays and mobile phones available in China, she says, and may soon spread elsewhere. Since she was at Bell Labs (now owned by Nokia) 20 years ago, she has been working on foldable displays that could fit more phone screen in a given space.</em>\r\n<em>…Graphene could be an important component of the necessary flexible electronics for Bao’s electronic skins. Its unique properties have excited scientists since the material was first isolated in 2004. A one-atom-thick layer of carbon, graphene is stronger than diamond, has the highest electron mobility of any known material, and is more than 97% transparent to wavelengths of light from the ultraviolet to the far infrared. Those properties could come in handy, but so far, no one has come up with an application that has had much of an impact in the marketplace. Grand View Research estimates the global market for graphene was only $43 million in 2017, mainly in applications such as protective coatings for flexible electronics.”</em>\r\nArtificial intelligence is helping us out here as well. Algorithms that parse decades of research to match a current need are being used to address this temporal challenge in material science.\r\n<em>“Machine-learning techniques are being used to comb through published research to unearth materials already discovered but forgotten, and to predict the properties of new materials that don’t yet exist. This replaces the trial-and-error approaches the field has relied on. According to James Warren, a physicist at the US National Institute of Standards and Technology in Gaithersburg, Maryland, in a very dynamic field it’s one of the most exciting developments in recent years.</em>\r\n<em>Warren is director of the Materials Genome Initiative (MGI), a multi-agency project set up by the US government in 2011. The database of materials and their properties is open and available to researchers, to help move those materials from journal pages into potential products, says Warren. “The whole point of MGI is literally to bridge that gap,” he says.</em>\r\n<em>In just a few years, he says, it may be possible to tell a computer that you want to build a battery with a certain storage capacity, lifetime and cost, and have it suggest the optimal combination of materials to make it happen.”</em>', 'Tomorrow’s industries: from OLEDs to nanomaterials', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2829-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:32:36', '2020-01-27 05:32:36', '', 2829, 'https://marcellus.in/2829-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2831, 1, '2020-01-26 05:32:51', '2020-01-26 05:32:51', '“In God we trust, others must bring data” is a quote attributed to Deming. But Nick Maggiulli is perhaps one of the most ardent followers of that. In this piece, Nick uses long term data to show why the fact that the US stock markets have had a great run in the past decade doesn\'t necessarily mean the next decade will see a bust or a mean reversion of sorts. Nick puts up a regression of preceding and ensuing decadal returns to show that there is no evidence of an inverse correlation whatsoever. However, the 20yr return does show an inverse correlation with the ensuing decadal return, albeit with a smaller sample set. Even then, based on the past 20yr returns, the US stock market should give a 4x return for the 20’s if past trends were to hold.\r\n<em>“HHHHH…What is the probability that my sixth flip is also a heads (H)?  Assuming the coin is fair (equal likelihood of heads and tails), you already know that the answer is 50%.  Because coin flips are an independent process, prior flips have no bearing on future flips.</em>\r\n<em>But it doesn’t feel that way does it?  Even if you understand the basics of probability, after seeing five heads in a row, it can feel like a tails is “due” even though you know better.  This feeling is known as the gambler’s fallacy and explains why it is hard for humans to understand random processes.</em>\r\n<em>Investors have a similar problem when it comes to thinking about future market returns.  I call it the investor’s fallacy.  But what makes the investor’s fallacy more difficult than the gambler’s fallacy is that markets are not an independent process.  What happened yesterday can affect what happens today.  This explains why the very best days in the market and the very worst days tend to occur near each other.  The same logic goes for what happened last week, last month, or last decade.</em>\r\n<em>Because of this interdependence of market returns, it is easy for investors to convince themselves that markets can be due for good or bad years.  And with the stellar performance in U.S. markets over the previous decade, it feels like a correction is warranted.  However, if you examine the data you will realize that this thinking is just as flawed as the person expecting a tails after seeing five heads in a row.  There is little to no relationship between prior 10-year returns and growth over the next 10 years.”</em>', 'The Investor\'s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never \"Due\" for Anything', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-investors-fallacy-why-markets-are-never-due-for-anything', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2831', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2832, 1, '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '“In God we trust, others must bring data” is a quote attributed to Deming. But Nick Maggiulli is perhaps one of the most ardent followers of that. In this piece, Nick uses long term data to show why the fact that the US stock markets have had a great run in the past decade doesn\'t necessarily mean the next decade will see a bust or a mean reversion of sorts. Nick puts up a regression of preceding and ensuing decadal returns to show that there is no evidence of an inverse correlation whatsoever. However, the 20yr return does show an inverse correlation with the ensuing decadal return, albeit with a smaller sample set. Even then, based on the past 20yr returns, the US stock market should give a 4x return for the 20’s if past trends were to hold.\r\n<em>“HHHHH…What is the probability that my sixth flip is also a heads (H)?  Assuming the coin is fair (equal likelihood of heads and tails), you already know that the answer is 50%.  Because coin flips are an independent process, prior flips have no bearing on future flips.</em>\r\n<em>But it doesn’t feel that way does it?  Even if you understand the basics of probability, after seeing five heads in a row, it can feel like a tails is “due” even though you know better.  This feeling is known as the gambler’s fallacy and explains why it is hard for humans to understand random processes.</em>\r\n<em>Investors have a similar problem when it comes to thinking about future market returns.  I call it the investor’s fallacy.  But what makes the investor’s fallacy more difficult than the gambler’s fallacy is that markets are not an independent process.  What happened yesterday can affect what happens today.  This explains why the very best days in the market and the very worst days tend to occur near each other.  The same logic goes for what happened last week, last month, or last decade.</em>\r\n<em>Because of this interdependence of market returns, it is easy for investors to convince themselves that markets can be due for good or bad years.  And with the stellar performance in U.S. markets over the previous decade, it feels like a correction is warranted.  However, if you examine the data you will realize that this thinking is just as flawed as the person expecting a tails after seeing five heads in a row.  There is little to no relationship between prior 10-year returns and growth over the next 10 years.”</em>', 'The Investor\'s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never \"Due\" for Anything', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2831-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '2020-01-27 05:34:09', '', 2831, 'https://marcellus.in/2831-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2833, 1, '2020-01-26 05:34:32', '2020-01-26 05:34:32', 'Rathin Roy is perhaps one of India’s finest macro economists currently. He made <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9e7a8fe014&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9e7a8fe014%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFK90OSfZ97bzzHiyFgsc2cIPb8FA\">headlines</a> last year for suggesting that India could be heading into the middle-income trap if things weren’t fixed soon. In this logically argued piece with plenty of data in the Mint, he relieves most of us of our misery of anticipating what could be in store for us in the country’s annual Union Budget on Feb 1<sup>st</sup>. He demonstrates that it is futile to except anything material in terms of a stimulus given the state of the central government’s finances and instead suggests that the states given their relatively better fiscal position at an aggregate level can and should do much of stimulating the economy.\r\n<em>“…Even in the absence of an ongoing economic slowdown, barely 20% of the central government’s total revenue receipts—from both tax and non-tax sources—are available in a given year for funding discretionary expenditure. That is, all the money that is spent on central schemes and centrally-sponsored schemes, the non-establishment portion of the expenditure on defence and internal security, as well as the other big-ticket items in the budget such as spending on infrastructure comes out of a narrow 20% sliver of the total money that the government raises each year.</em>\r\n<em>By extension, funding committed expenditure—the expenditure on establishment (such as salaries and pensions), compensation to states for slower-than-guaranteed growth in goods and services tax revenues, interest payments on past borrowings, and all statutory and finance commission transfers to states—takes up 80% of the government of India’s total revenue receipts. All other expenditure is financed by borrowing. Most borrowing is used to finance current expenditure, rather than capital expenditure. Last year, for example, almost 70% of borrowing was for current expenditure.</em>\r\n<em>With revenue growth sluggish in a slowdown, the already-tight fiscal space has shrunk even further. In such a situation, windfall receipts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or the telecom sector can help, but will not resolve the precipitous drop in the central government’s revenue receipts, which has only been exacerbated, potentially, by the corporate tax cuts that were announced in September and, certainly, by the growth slowdown. Besides, even if disinvestment sales go through as budgeted (which is highly unlikely), the reprieve will last just for a year. The crunch will recur in FY21. Calculations based on budget figures show that just maintaining total expenditure in FY21 at the same levels as budgeted in FY20 will push the fiscal deficit up to 4.57% of GDP.</em>\r\n<em>Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that the government has a serious public funding crisis at hand.</em>\r\n<em>…What is the way out then? Taken collectively, states are a much better bet to nudge the country towards an economic recovery than pinning all hopes on the central government. It is often forgotten that fiscal policy in India is conducted at two levels. However, the focus tends to be on the Centre, ignoring the fact that the states collectively are now larger fiscal participants than the government of India. In FY19, for example, total expenditure of the states and the Centre was 28.66% of GDP. Of this, 16.5% was states’ spending, compared to 12.16% by the central government.</em>\r\n<em>Taken collectively, states also borrow largely for capital expenditure and this trend has in fact been improving over time, in clear contrast to the central government picture (Chart 2). Almost the entire fiscal deficit incurred by the states is utilized for capital expenditure. The Centre utilizes only 30% of its fiscal deficit for capital expenditure.</em>\r\n<em>In addition, revenue receipts of the states (as a whole) are 60% higher than those of the centre in FY19 (Chart 3). In fact, states’ own tax revenue was higher than the net tax revenue of the Centre in that year. Committed expenditure accounts for a far lower fraction of revenue receipts. Finally, farm loan waiver and income support schemes have also not significantly stressed the fiscal position of the states.”</em>', 'Why India faces a public funding crisis', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-india-faces-a-public-funding-crisis', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:36:28', '2020-01-27 05:36:28', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2833', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2834, 1, '2020-01-27 05:36:28', '2020-01-27 05:36:28', 'Rathin Roy is perhaps one of India’s finest macro economists currently. He made <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9e7a8fe014&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9e7a8fe014%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580189021530000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFK90OSfZ97bzzHiyFgsc2cIPb8FA\">headlines</a> last year for suggesting that India could be heading into the middle-income trap if things weren’t fixed soon. In this logically argued piece with plenty of data in the Mint, he relieves most of us of our misery of anticipating what could be in store for us in the country’s annual Union Budget on Feb 1<sup>st</sup>. He demonstrates that it is futile to except anything material in terms of a stimulus given the state of the central government’s finances and instead suggests that the states given their relatively better fiscal position at an aggregate level can and should do much of stimulating the economy.\r\n<em>“…Even in the absence of an ongoing economic slowdown, barely 20% of the central government’s total revenue receipts—from both tax and non-tax sources—are available in a given year for funding discretionary expenditure. That is, all the money that is spent on central schemes and centrally-sponsored schemes, the non-establishment portion of the expenditure on defence and internal security, as well as the other big-ticket items in the budget such as spending on infrastructure comes out of a narrow 20% sliver of the total money that the government raises each year.</em>\r\n<em>By extension, funding committed expenditure—the expenditure on establishment (such as salaries and pensions), compensation to states for slower-than-guaranteed growth in goods and services tax revenues, interest payments on past borrowings, and all statutory and finance commission transfers to states—takes up 80% of the government of India’s total revenue receipts. All other expenditure is financed by borrowing. Most borrowing is used to finance current expenditure, rather than capital expenditure. Last year, for example, almost 70% of borrowing was for current expenditure.</em>\r\n<em>With revenue growth sluggish in a slowdown, the already-tight fiscal space has shrunk even further. In such a situation, windfall receipts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or the telecom sector can help, but will not resolve the precipitous drop in the central government’s revenue receipts, which has only been exacerbated, potentially, by the corporate tax cuts that were announced in September and, certainly, by the growth slowdown. Besides, even if disinvestment sales go through as budgeted (which is highly unlikely), the reprieve will last just for a year. The crunch will recur in FY21. Calculations based on budget figures show that just maintaining total expenditure in FY21 at the same levels as budgeted in FY20 will push the fiscal deficit up to 4.57% of GDP.</em>\r\n<em>Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that the government has a serious public funding crisis at hand.</em>\r\n<em>…What is the way out then? Taken collectively, states are a much better bet to nudge the country towards an economic recovery than pinning all hopes on the central government. It is often forgotten that fiscal policy in India is conducted at two levels. However, the focus tends to be on the Centre, ignoring the fact that the states collectively are now larger fiscal participants than the government of India. In FY19, for example, total expenditure of the states and the Centre was 28.66% of GDP. Of this, 16.5% was states’ spending, compared to 12.16% by the central government.</em>\r\n<em>Taken collectively, states also borrow largely for capital expenditure and this trend has in fact been improving over time, in clear contrast to the central government picture (Chart 2). Almost the entire fiscal deficit incurred by the states is utilized for capital expenditure. The Centre utilizes only 30% of its fiscal deficit for capital expenditure.</em>\r\n<em>In addition, revenue receipts of the states (as a whole) are 60% higher than those of the centre in FY19 (Chart 3). In fact, states’ own tax revenue was higher than the net tax revenue of the Centre in that year. Committed expenditure accounts for a far lower fraction of revenue receipts. Finally, farm loan waiver and income support schemes have also not significantly stressed the fiscal position of the states.”</em>', 'Why India faces a public funding crisis', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2833-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:36:28', '2020-01-27 05:36:28', '', 2833, 'https://marcellus.in/2833-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2835, 1, '2020-01-26 05:36:42', '2020-01-26 05:36:42', 'At Marcellus, we prefer to hire our research analysts via an internship program and for interns we tend to lean towards those with an accounting or a CFA qualification as opposed to an MBA. We don’t seem to be alone in that with the MBA program globally falling out of favour to the extent that applications to US B-schools have now declined steadily for five years with several universities shutting down their MBA programs. One such university, Johns Hopkins fell short of shutting down but is instead reorienting its MBA program to reflect the needs of today’s business world – focus on data science and analytics.\r\n<em>“There was a recognition that employer taste or needs for M.B.A.s may be changing over time and that prospective students may be sort of re-evaluating, based on the cost, based on opportunity cost,” Mr. Triantis said.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Triantis said that even in a gloomy business-school market, a university of Johns Hopkins’s caliber should prove an exception to the rule. To understand why it wasn’t, the university enlisted the help of an outside consulting firm, Prophet, to understand what the Carey Business School was lacking.</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>A key finding from the research: Employers said they needed M.B.A.s with data-science and data-analytics skills. While students don’t need to be data scientists, they need to be able to supervise a team of them, Mr. Triantis said. That means they have to understand what certain software and tools are capable of, what analyses can be done with them and then make solid decisions based on sifting through data.</em>\r\n<em>More broadly, employers want to see an emphasis on science, technology and math skills in combination with softer skills like leadership that have been so in vogue in recent years.”</em>', 'Johns Hopkins University Reimagines the M.B.A.', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'johns-hopkins-university-reimagines-the-m-b-a', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:43:50', '2020-01-27 05:43:50', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2835', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2836, 1, '2020-01-27 05:43:50', '2020-01-27 05:43:50', 'At Marcellus, we prefer to hire our research analysts via an internship program and for interns we tend to lean towards those with an accounting or a CFA qualification as opposed to an MBA. We don’t seem to be alone in that with the MBA program globally falling out of favour to the extent that applications to US B-schools have now declined steadily for five years with several universities shutting down their MBA programs. One such university, Johns Hopkins fell short of shutting down but is instead reorienting its MBA program to reflect the needs of today’s business world – focus on data science and analytics.\r\n<em>“There was a recognition that employer taste or needs for M.B.A.s may be changing over time and that prospective students may be sort of re-evaluating, based on the cost, based on opportunity cost,” Mr. Triantis said.</em>\r\n<em>Mr. Triantis said that even in a gloomy business-school market, a university of Johns Hopkins’s caliber should prove an exception to the rule. To understand why it wasn’t, the university enlisted the help of an outside consulting firm, Prophet, to understand what the Carey Business School was lacking.</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>A key finding from the research: Employers said they needed M.B.A.s with data-science and data-analytics skills. While students don’t need to be data scientists, they need to be able to supervise a team of them, Mr. Triantis said. That means they have to understand what certain software and tools are capable of, what analyses can be done with them and then make solid decisions based on sifting through data.</em>\r\n<em>More broadly, employers want to see an emphasis on science, technology and math skills in combination with softer skills like leadership that have been so in vogue in recent years.”</em>', 'Johns Hopkins University Reimagines the M.B.A.', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2835-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-01-27 05:43:50', '2020-01-27 05:43:50', '', 2835, 'https://marcellus.in/2835-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2838, 1, '2020-01-30 11:55:36', '2020-01-30 11:55:36', '<strong>US FDA’s record warning letters to Indian pharma majors in the recent years, Katherine Eban’s hard hitting book on Indian pharma (ignoring the controversial aspects) and our research on the sector raises concerns around the risk-adjusted rewards of investing in the standard Indian Big Pharma model. Moreover, in an industry where non-compliance costs years of R&amp;D investments and loss of contracts, it is important for investors to give the regulatory track record of the investee companies the same level of importance that they give to its recent financial performance.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“At the behest of managers, the company’s scientists substituted lower-purity ingredients for higher ones to reduce costs. They altered test parameters so that formulations with higher impurities could be approved. They faked dissolution studies. To generate optimal results, they crushed up brand-name drugs into capsules so that they could be tested in lieu of company’s own drugs. They superimposed brand-name test results onto their own in applications…. The company even forged its own standard operating procedures, which FDA investigators rely on to assess whether a company is following its own policies…. Essentially, Ranbaxy’s manufacturing standards boiled down to whatever the company could get away with.”</em>\r\n<em>-Katherine Eban, Bottle of Lies</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Indian pharma’s unending regulatory woes</strong>\r\nIn her controversial bestselling book, <em>‘Bottle of Lies: Ranbaxy and the Dark Side of Indian Pharma’</em> (2019), American investigative journalist Katherine Eban gives several examples of sub-standard generic drug manufacturing and intentional data falsification by big pharmaceutical manufacturing companies in India, China and other countries.\r\n\r\nWith the scandal that destroyed Ranbaxy as the centrepiece (the firm seems to have cooked up the test results which gave it the right to exclusively manufacture Lipitor for 180 days once Pfizer’s patent expired), Ms. Eban highlights how several major pharma companies based in India (Ranbaxy, Mylan, Wockhardt, etc) sacrificed the interests of patients and grew their business on the back of a corporate culture which treated the efficacy of medicines and the data integrity of the drug development &amp; production process as sub-servient to the goal of maximising profits.\r\n\r\nAs one would expect, given the unflattering picture the book paints of the Indian pharma industry, the wrath of Indian authorities could potentially be unleashed upon Ms. Eban (see: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9d4326bc91&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9d4326bc91%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGnNvXSsuHgi0HqG_sN8p2T_WEehA\">https://theprint.in/health/<wbr />modi-govt-plans-action-<wbr />against-us-writer-who-said-<wbr />indian-drugs-are-flea-market-<wbr />quality/347189/</a>) who is presumably watching the cash register ring non-stop as the controversy further enhances the sales of this New York Times bestseller.\r\n\r\nOne would assume that given the examples cited in book are a decade old, things would have improved since then and the level of compliance with good manufacturing practices and adequate data integrity measures would have become part of the standard operating procedure for the generic pharma companies in India. However, the results of the inspections carried out by global regulatory bodies (primarily the US FDA) point to a different reality.\r\n\r\nIn 2019, the US FDA issued a record 20 warning letters to Indian pharma majors which includes <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=905051ccb8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D905051ccb8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEskeUR_FKOVyyq2NoYGfus5fmRRw\">Lupin</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=411b70d4e0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D411b70d4e0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMcpjW-A6812riNbwF52_Yj_myKw\">Glenmark</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e0545573c9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De0545573c9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELgi62dC1FNnRvEQxBsSS2g3E4fg\">Cadila</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85cf3bbcd4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D85cf3bbcd4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcVc7peEAf4ntmrVjFxSB3r9bO2A\">Torrent</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aaa74f8ef8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daaa74f8ef8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGFPO7ZRV0K25LTnWvHr9SOXZXJwQ\">Aurobindo</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05e6ef3c57&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D05e6ef3c57%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4Rgy3toFxZKbIz-2cVNryKmi7MQ\">Mylan (Unit 8)</a>. Just to explain, the FDA issues warning letters when drug manufacturers fail to remedy lapses bought to their attention after FDA inspections. The issues leading to stringent action by FDA against Indian pharma companies range from lax documentation of the drug manufacturing process (e.g. records of all batches – including defective ones – have to be kept) to open toilet drains to rusty &amp; malfunctioning equipment at the drug manufacturing facilities to hidden chromatography equipment (which allows the manufacturer to check the chemical composition of the drug <u>without</u> having to record the results if the results turned out to be deviating from the required norm).\r\n\r\nFor those who believe that the FDA’s efforts are a part of a sinister foreign conspiracy to handicap Indian pharma companies, apart from the red flags raised by western regulators, Indian pharma companies were also flagged by Indian regulators but were saved by weak law enforcement. To grasp the extent of compliance violation in India, consider the data published in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d6b21dcf1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1d6b21dcf1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH-m8UIvDNzENmAG461a5e8F7zXXA\">BusinessLine article</a>: between 2015-2019, there were 16,675 inspections of pharma manufacturing sites by Indian regulators in the state of Telangana and they identified 3,853 cases of non-compliance, a violation rate approaching 25%.\r\n\r\nWhy is the US$30bn+ Indian pharma industry accounting for 20% of global generic drug manufacturing repeatedly being caught by global regulators for violating compliance norms? To some extent, it is an outcome of the export-oriented business model of the Indian pharma industry which is to reverse engineer patent protected molecules and launch the generic version of those molecules in Western countries after patent expiry. This simple and clear business strategy has one big shortcoming, which is that generic drugs often see up to 90%-95% price erosion within one year of launch and this substantially reduces the chances of making profits from generic product development.\r\n\r\nTo overcome this problem in the US market, pharma companies from across the world try to be one of the early players (called “first to file”) to introduce the generic drug and thus enjoy an exclusivity period in which they can sell the generic drug at prices only slightly lower than the branded product and thus make windfall gains. Since it takes a lot of time &amp; money to develop generic drugs and obtain approval from Western regulators, most of the big Indian pharma companies work on several products at once to increase the chances of getting approval for any one product. This ambition sometimes leads to a dilution of management focus on quality control and results in deviations from prescribed manufacturing norms in order to expedite the development and delivery of new generic products to the all-important American market.\r\n\r\nAnother factor which contributes to the challenged regulatory status of the Indian pharma industry is the use of different manufacturing standards for different geographies in order to reduce costs. Use of multiple standards imply that companies need to adhere to good manufacturing norms only if prescribed by the relevant regulator. For example, since the Nigerian regulator might have less stringent requirements than the US FDA, this creates the mindset that one can take as many short-cuts as possible with the aim to just manage the local compliance requirements for Nigeria.\r\n\r\nThe above listed issues appear to be symptomatic of management’s inability to judiciously allocate time to oversee compliance with regulations which, if addressed properly, can become a critical moat for an Indian pharma company which is seeking to build an enduring franchise in the highly regulated Western markets. Arguably, the only Indian pharma to have done this successfully is Cipla with the remarkable Yusuf Hamied at the vanguard.At Marcellus, whilst we do not have access to the Indian pharma companies’ labs, we have been reading their annual reports for several years before the Ranbaxy scandal broke. The annual reports of several of the frontline listed Indian pharma companies betray the corporate culture prevalent at some of these firms: Boards are stuffed with friends &amp; family, the profits shown on the P&amp;L don’t stack up with the operating cashflows of these firms implying (at best) that the working capital cycles are relentlessly expanding or implying (at worst) that the profits flatter to deceive. In short, the annual reports appear to be a microcosm of what drug regulators – India’s included – are finding in the lab: big pharma in India prioritises short term profits in favour of building sustainable long-term competitive advantages.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nIn an industry where non-compliance costs years of R&amp;D investments and loss of contracts, it is important for investors to give the regulatory track record of the investee companies the same level of importance that they give to its recent financial performance.\r\n\r\nA company like Divi’s Laboratories has benefitted enormously from a relatively clean compliance track record and management’s focus on quality control which has resulted in Divi’s becoming the outsourced manufacturer of choice for Western Big Pharma companies. These relationships with Western Pharma have been nurtured by Divis’ senior management over nearly 30 years and ironically has given the firm a higher profit margin and higher ROCE business than any of the Indian pharma companies who are trying to sell their own drugs in the US market. In effect, Western Big Pharma is willing to pay a premium for Divis’ contract manufacturing services.\r\n\r\nDistinct from the business model followed by Divi’s, over the years while researching the portfolio companies of Marcellus’ portfolios, we have observed that the difference between industry leading firms and the rest is the unrelenting focus of the leading company’s management on brand creation, production &amp; supply chain processes and product innovation. This focus in turn seems to be a by-product of disciplined allocation of management’s time. Several of these attributes are reflected in the brand building efforts of the Indian subsidiaries of global pharma companies like Abbott, Sanofi, Pfizer, GSK, etc which helps them earn substantially higher margins than their Indian peers manufacturing unbranded drugs. The higher margins result in a very high level of free cash flows for the Indian subsidiaries of the global pharma companies. This in turn creates a more predictable and more sustainable business model (centred around the manufacturing of proven drugs) rather than more cash consumptive, less predictable, more regulatory-risk prone business model followed by the large Indian pharma companies.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: Divi’s Laboratories Ltd. and Abbott India Ltd. are part of most Marcellus’ clients’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<em>Sudhanshu Nahta is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=01de0cd886&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in</a>', 'Learnings from the Unravelling of Indian Pharma Industry', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'learnings-from-the-unravelling-of-indian-pharma-industry', '', '', '2020-01-31 04:23:45', '2020-01-31 04:23:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2838', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(2843, 1, '2020-01-31 04:23:30', '2020-01-31 04:23:30', '<strong>US FDA’s record warning letters to Indian pharma majors in the recent years, Katherine Eban’s hard hitting book on Indian pharma (ignoring the controversial aspects) and our research on the sector raises concerns around the risk-adjusted rewards of investing in the standard Indian Big Pharma model. Moreover, in an industry where non-compliance costs years of R&amp;D investments and loss of contracts, it is important for investors to give the regulatory track record of the investee companies the same level of importance that they give to its recent financial performance.</strong>\n\n<em>“At the behest of managers, the company’s scientists substituted lower-purity ingredients for higher ones to reduce costs. They altered test parameters so that formulations with higher impurities could be approved. They faked dissolution studies. To generate optimal results, they crushed up brand-name drugs into capsules so that they could be tested in lieu of company’s own drugs. They superimposed brand-name test results onto their own in applications…. The company even forged its own standard operating procedures, which FDA investigators rely on to assess whether a company is following its own policies…. Essentially, Ranbaxy’s manufacturing standards boiled down to whatever the company could get away with.”</em>\n<em>-Katherine Eban, Bottle of Lies</em>\n\n<strong>Indian pharma’s unending regulatory woes</strong>\nIn her controversial bestselling book, <em>‘Bottle of Lies: Ranbaxy and the Dark Side of Indian Pharma’</em> (2019), American investigative journalist Katherine Eban gives several examples of sub-standard generic drug manufacturing and intentional data falsification by big pharmaceutical manufacturing companies in India, China and other countries.\n\nWith the scandal that destroyed Ranbaxy as the centrepiece (the firm seems to have cooked up the test results which gave it the right to exclusively manufacture Lipitor for 180 days once Pfizer’s patent expired), Ms. Eban highlights how several major pharma companies based in India (Ranbaxy, Mylan, Wockhardt, etc) sacrificed the interests of patients and grew their business on the back of a corporate culture which treated the efficacy of medicines and the data integrity of the drug development &amp; production process as sub-servient to the goal of maximising profits.\n\nAs one would expect, given the unflattering picture the book paints of the Indian pharma industry, the wrath of Indian authorities could potentially be unleashed upon Ms. Eban (see: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9d4326bc91&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9d4326bc91%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGnNvXSsuHgi0HqG_sN8p2T_WEehA\">https://theprint.in/health/<wbr />modi-govt-plans-action-<wbr />against-us-writer-who-said-<wbr />indian-drugs-are-flea-market-<wbr />quality/347189/</a>) who is presumably watching the cash register ring non-stop as the controversy further enhances the sales of this New York Times bestseller.\n\nOne would assume that given the examples cited in book are a decade old, things would have improved since then and the level of compliance with good manufacturing practices and adequate data integrity measures would have become part of the standard operating procedure for the generic pharma companies in India. However, the results of the inspections carried out by global regulatory bodies (primarily the US FDA) point to a different reality.\n\nIn 2019, the US FDA issued a record 20 warning letters to Indian pharma majors which includes <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=905051ccb8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D905051ccb8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEskeUR_FKOVyyq2NoYGfus5fmRRw\">Lupin</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=411b70d4e0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D411b70d4e0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMcpjW-A6812riNbwF52_Yj_myKw\">Glenmark</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e0545573c9&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De0545573c9%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226050000&amp;usg=AFQjCNELgi62dC1FNnRvEQxBsSS2g3E4fg\">Cadila</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=85cf3bbcd4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D85cf3bbcd4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcVc7peEAf4ntmrVjFxSB3r9bO2A\">Torrent</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aaa74f8ef8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daaa74f8ef8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGFPO7ZRV0K25LTnWvHr9SOXZXJwQ\">Aurobindo</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05e6ef3c57&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D05e6ef3c57%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF4Rgy3toFxZKbIz-2cVNryKmi7MQ\">Mylan (Unit 8)</a>. Just to explain, the FDA issues warning letters when drug manufacturers fail to remedy lapses bought to their attention after FDA inspections. The issues leading to stringent action by FDA against Indian pharma companies range from lax documentation of the drug manufacturing process (e.g. records of all batches – including defective ones – have to be kept) to open toilet drains to rusty &amp; malfunctioning equipment at the drug manufacturing facilities to hidden chromatography equipment (which allows the manufacturer to check the chemical composition of the drug <u>without</u> having to record the results if the results turned out to be deviating from the required norm).\n\nFor those who believe that the FDA’s efforts are a part of a sinister foreign conspiracy to handicap Indian pharma companies, apart from the red flags raised by western regulators, Indian pharma companies were also flagged by Indian regulators but were saved by weak law enforcement. To grasp the extent of compliance violation in India, consider the data published in <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d6b21dcf1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1d6b21dcf1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580460226051000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH-m8UIvDNzENmAG461a5e8F7zXXA\">BusinessLine article</a>: between 2015-2019, there were 16,675 inspections of pharma manufacturing sites by Indian regulators in the state of Telangana and they identified 3,853 cases of non-compliance, a violation rate approaching 25%.\n\nWhy is the US$30bn+ Indian pharma industry accounting for 20% of global generic drug manufacturing repeatedly being caught by global regulators for violating compliance norms? To some extent, it is an outcome of the export-oriented business model of the Indian pharma industry which is to reverse engineer patent protected molecules and launch the generic version of those molecules in Western countries after patent expiry. This simple and clear business strategy has one big shortcoming, which is that generic drugs often see up to 90%-95% price erosion within one year of launch and this substantially reduces the chances of making profits from generic product development.\n\nTo overcome this problem in the US market, pharma companies from across the world try to be one of the early players (called “first to file”) to introduce the generic drug and thus enjoy an exclusivity period in which they can sell the generic drug at prices only slightly lower than the branded product and thus make windfall gains. Since it takes a lot of time &amp; money to develop generic drugs and obtain approval from Western regulators, most of the big Indian pharma companies work on several products at once to increase the chances of getting approval for any one product. This ambition sometimes leads to a dilution of management focus on quality control and results in deviations from prescribed manufacturing norms in order to expedite the development and delivery of new generic products to the all-important American market.\n\nAnother factor which contributes to the challenged regulatory status of the Indian pharma industry is the use of different manufacturing standards for different geographies in order to reduce costs. Use of multiple standards imply that companies need to adhere to good manufacturing norms only if prescribed by the relevant regulator. For example, since the Nigerian regulator might have less stringent requirements than the US FDA, this creates the mindset that one can take as many short-cuts as possible with the aim to just manage the local compliance requirements for Nigeria.\n\nThe above listed issues appear to be symptomatic of management’s inability to judiciously allocate time to oversee compliance with regulations which, if addressed properly, can become a critical moat for an Indian pharma company which is seeking to build an enduring franchise in the highly regulated Western markets. Arguably, the only Indian pharma to have done this successfully is Cipla with the remarkable Yusuf Hamied at the vanguard.At Marcellus, whilst we do not have access to the Indian pharma companies’ labs, we have been reading their annual reports for several years before the Ranbaxy scandal broke. The annual reports of several of the frontline listed Indian pharma companies betray the corporate culture prevalent at some of these firms: Boards are stuffed with friends &amp; family, the profits shown on the P&amp;L don’t stack up with the operating cashflows of these firms implying (at best) that the working capital cycles are relentlessly expanding or implying (at worst) that the profits flatter to deceive. In short, the annual reports appear to be a microcosm of what drug regulators – India’s included – are finding in the lab: big pharma in India prioritises short term profits in favour of building sustainable long-term competitive advantages.\n\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\nIn an industry where non-compliance costs years of R&amp;D investments and loss of contracts, it is important for investors to give the regulatory track record of the investee companies the same level of importance that they give to its recent financial performance.\n\nA company like Divi’s Laboratories has benefitted enormously from a relatively clean compliance track record and management’s focus on quality control which has resulted in Divi’s becoming the outsourced manufacturer of choice for Western Big Pharma companies. These relationships with Western Pharma have been nurtured by Divis’ senior management over nearly 30 years and ironically has given the firm a higher profit margin and higher ROCE business than any of the Indian pharma companies who are trying to sell their own drugs in the US market. In effect, Western Big Pharma is willing to pay a premium for Divis’ contract manufacturing services.\n\nDistinct from the business model followed by Divi’s, over the years while researching the portfolio companies of Marcellus’ portfolios, we have observed that the difference between industry leading firms and the rest is the unrelenting focus of the leading company’s management on brand creation, production &amp; supply chain processes and product innovation. This focus in turn seems to be a by-product of disciplined allocation of management’s time. Several of these attributes are reflected in the brand building efforts of the Indian subsidiaries of global pharma companies like Abbott, Sanofi, Pfizer, GSK, etc which helps them earn substantially higher margins than their Indian peers manufacturing unbranded drugs. The higher margins result in a very high level of free cash flows for the Indian subsidiaries of the global pharma companies. This in turn creates a more predictable and more sustainable business model (centred around the manufacturing of proven drugs) rather than more cash consumptive, less predictable, more regulatory-risk prone business model followed by the large Indian pharma companies.\n\nDisclosure: Divi’s Laboratories Ltd. and Abbott India Ltd. are part of most Marcellus’ clients’ portfolios.\n\n<em>Sudhanshu Nahta is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\nDisclosure: Divi’s Laboratories Ltd. and Abbott India Ltd. are part of most Marcellus’ clients’ portfolios.\n\n<em>Sudhanshu Nahta is a Portfolio Counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em>\n\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=01de0cd886&amp;e=5648501957\">http://marcellus.in</a>', 'Learnings from the Unravelling of Indian Pharma Industry', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2838-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-01-31 04:23:30', '2020-01-31 04:23:30', '', 2838, 'https://marcellus.in/2838-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(2849, 1, '2020-02-02 08:33:31', '2020-02-02 08:33:31', '<strong>The most sustainable way for a firm to compound profits over the longer term, is to sustain high ROCE alongside a high rate of capital reinvestment. However, such businesses face the challenge of consistently finding avenues for incremental capital redeployment in areas which deliver high ROCE. Some of the most common capital allocation mistakes made by cash generating firms include diversification across geographies and product categories, often inorganically (i.e. through M&amp;A). Using examples, we highlight how important it is for a ‘Consistent Compounder’ to focus on capital allocation as a means of shareholder value creation. We made one change to our Consistent Compounders portfolio in January 2020: we exited Marico and replaced it with Divi’s Labs.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31<sup>st</sup> January 2020</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2850 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/feb1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"709\" height=\"408\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Capital redeployment is one of the key drivers of shareholder value creation for firms with high ROCE</strong>\r\n\r\nFirms with deep-rooted competitive advantages deliver returns on capital employed (ROCE) substantially higher than their cost of capital (CoC). The gap between ROCE and CoC is surplus cash flow generated by the firm, which can either be returned to shareholders through dividends / share buybacks, or it can be redeployed on the balance sheet. For a firm to consistently grow its profits over the longer term, it must sensibly allocate cash flows from operations. The options available to such a promoter / senior management for capital deployment, can be broadly classified into three areas:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Invest in the core business:</strong> Redeploy capital back into areas in which the firm already possesses deep-rooted competitive advantages (which have led to the existing high ROCEs and hence free cash generation in the first place). Although this sounds obvious, as the firm grows and deepens its competitive advantages, the quantum of free cash flow available for redeployment tends to far exceed the amount that can be reinvested to grow the core business further. This then leads the promoter to explore one of the following two options.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Option 1: Diversification, usually inorganically:</strong> Promoters with aspirations of ‘empire building’ or those who want to add to their business, new revenue growth drivers for the longer term, tend to use surplus capital to diversify across geographies or product categories. This could either be organic, or inorganic diversification. Many firms prefer the inorganic route towards diversification, acquiring companies in related or unrelated businesses, forging joint ventures with other companies, acquiring minority stakes in other companies etc.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Option 2: Returning the surplus cash back to shareholders through dividends or buybacks:</strong> When surplus cash cannot be effectively deployed without dragging down the ROCE sharply, it is prudent to return it to shareholders though special dividends or share buybacks.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWhilst all this sounds straightforward, many firms with a great core franchise that consistently generates high ROCE, have found it difficult to sensibly allocate surplus capital to diversify their business, as highlighted in some examples below.\r\n\r\n<strong>Creating shareholder value through M&amp;A and offshore expansion, has proved to be difficult for firms which have sustained high ROCEs in India</strong>\r\n\r\nOver the past 3-4 decades, middle class household consumption in India has grown substantially across several essential products of day to day consumption. This has meant that over the past two decades, most dominant firms in these sectors, have generated substantial amounts of surplus capital (i.e. capital after meeting the core capex requirements of the firm).\r\n\r\nBetween 1995 and 2005, there have been various examples of firms deploying their surplus capital towards M&amp;A to acquire businesses in India. Many of these acquisitions have ended up generating substantial value for shareholders with ROCEs of the acquired businesses being well above their cost of capital. Some examples of these successful acquisitions include: Hindustan Unilever’s acquisitions of TOMCO (Tata Oil Mills Company), Kwality, Brooke Bond, Kissan, Lakme etc during the 1990s; Dabur’s acquisition of Balsara (2005); Marico’s acquisition of Nihar (2006); and Pidilite’s acquisitions of Ranipal (1999), M-Seal (2000), Dr. Fixit (2000), Steelgrip (2002), Roff (2005) etc. These acquisitions have successfully added sustainable earnings growth drivers for these firms with high ROCEs.\r\n\r\nHowever, after 2005, several dominant Indian companies have deployed surplus capital towards <strong><em>international</em></strong> expansion / acquisitions – for example GCPL (Africa, Indonesia, Latin America), Pidilite (Brazil, US, Middle East), Marico (Middle East, Bangladesh, South Africa), Dabur (Africa, US, Turkey, Egypt), Havells (Sylvania), Tata Steel (Corus), Asian Paints (Berger International, 2001), Bharti Airtel (Africa) etc.\r\n\r\nMost of these acquisitions have delivered ROCEs well below cost of equity. We have carried out the analysis of some of these companies (GCPL, Marico, Dabur and Pidilite) where most international businesses are outside the standalone business. The analysis computes the difference between consolidated ROCE and standalone ROCE for these firms, because most of the acquisitions and overseas businesses are NOT part of the standalone operations, when their core Indian business is included in the standalone operations. This ‘non-standalone’ ROCE is reflective of the returns generated by using cash from the high-ROCE standalone entity, to execute international expansion.\r\n\r\nThe following points are worth highlighting from this analysis:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>A substantial part (at times more than 100%) of operating cash flows generated from the standalone business has been deployed towards international acquisitions – see the second column of Exhibit 2.</li>\r\n 	<li>Domestic (standalone) businesses of these firms have generated ROCEs substantially higher than cost of capital, many at times even higher than 50% - see chart on the right in Exhibit 3. This is reflective of the strong moats built by these firms in India.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nInternational (non-standalone) business ROCEs of these firms have been sub-par, many at times substantially below cost of capital – see chart on the left in Exhibit 3. This is reflective of the weak moats existing in these international businesses.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2851 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/feb2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"723\" height=\"335\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2852 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/feb4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"726\" height=\"476\" />Some of the common factors why most international capital allocation decisions of dominant Indian firms have delivered sub-optimal returns include:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Complex organisation structures:</strong> It is operationally difficult for an Indian company to manage an acquired business which operates in a foreign un-known (or less known) geography with a legacy employee team / legacy culture / legacy systems and processes. Some firms choose to decentralize management, while others choose extreme centralization of management. Both structures have their pros and cons. For example, GCPL and Pidilite follow more of a decentralized approach while Marico follows a lot more centralised approach towards management. Dabur, we believe, is somewhere in the middle – a combination of both - empowered local management, with high quality due diligence from the Indian head office. Pidilite’s experiences in Brazil and Middle East led them to eventually change the local legacy management team due to unacceptable practices being carried out by them post-acquisition.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Acquiring companies which run unrelated businesses</strong> that are outside the core competence of the Indian management.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Acquiring businesses are not ‘consistent compounders’</strong> in their local markets, which necessitates the Indian management to understand the local business in order to make it a ‘consistent compounder’.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stretched management bandwidth:</strong> The Indian promoter and management team would have had single-minded focus on the core business before the international acquisition. After the acquisition, they would have faced bandwidth challenges due to the issues highlighted in the bullet points above.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Steep valuations</strong> paid for the acquisitions.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nMost firms in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio have a combination of: a) high ROCE; b) high rate of reinvestment of cash flows; and c) history of using surplus capital to acquire businesses – see exhibit below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2853 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/feb6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"726\" height=\"375\" />Hence, one of the biggest areas of diligence that our philosophy requires is around the exposure of our portfolio companies to the opportunities and challenges of capital allocation highlighted in our analysis above. Whilst it is difficult to precisely forecast future capital allocation decisions of any firm, our research team builds conviction on the capital allocation approach of our portfolio companies by analyzing the long term historical track-record of capital allocation – how / why were certain capital allocation decisions taken in the past, what were the learnings subsequently and how has the approach towards capital allocation evolved for the firm.\r\n\r\nTrack record of firms in our Consistent Compounders Portfolio can be divided into two types:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Type 1 - Capital redeployed only in core businesses historically</strong>: Firms such as Page Industries and Relaxo Footwears have redeployed on average 50% and 90% of their annual operating cash flows, respectively. This entire capital has been reinvested to expand manufacturing capacities in their core operations, enhance IT systems etc. Moreover, every layer of geographical (within India) or product category expansion has been carried out organically in adjacencies which have a significant overlap with their existing core business. For instance, Relaxo has expanded pan-India into sports shoes, various sub-segments of casual footwear, from being just a north-India focused flip-flops oriented firm 2 decades ago. Page started offering only mens innerwear in the 1990s, and has subsequently expanded into leisurewear, sportswear and outerwear categories for men, women and kids. For such companies, we focus on building conviction on the runway of growth available to the firm’s core business, and the ability of the firm to maintain high ROCE on incremental capital deployment in existing core businesses.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Type 2 - Learnt from historical experiences around M&amp;A</strong>: Firms like Asian Paints and Dr. Lal Pathlabs are open to doing acquisitions to grow their product portfolio or geographical presence respectively. However, the promoter and management teams of these firms have demonstrated significant caution and restraint in considering such opportunities in the past. They have executed bolt-on acquisitions which do not risk a large part of the firm’s capital employed and have been cautious in deploying incremental capital into these acquired businesses. One exception though is a firm like Pidilite which has had three distinct phases of large sized M&amp;A transactions in its history (as summarized below). The firm has acknowledged its mistakes, and implemented course-correction subsequently, which gives us conviction on capital allocation discipline likely to be pursued in future.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>Example - Pidilite’s capital allocation track record</u></strong><strong>:</strong>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Phase 1 (1999 to 2005) – Successful domestic M&amp;A</strong>: After having spent five decades to establish a monopoly in white glue (Fevicol), Pidilite started acquiring and building other adhesive and sealant brands to expand its product portfolio, and to extend the firm’s channel presence and intermediary influence. The acquisitions included: a) Ranipal in 1999 for Rs 4 crores; b) M-Seal and Dr. Fixit in 2000 for Rs 32 crores; c) Steelgrip in 2002 for Rs 10 crores; and d) Roff in 2005 for an undisclosed amount. Capital deployed towards acquiring these firms was approx. 11% of total operating cash flows generated by Pidilite over this period. Most of these acquisitions have become monopolies in their respective categories by now, and have delivered ROCEs substantially higher than cost of capital for Pidilite. Thanks to this phase of expansion, Pidilite is one of the most diversified consumer firms, with its products reaching various distribution channels, including convenience stores (kiranas), hardware stores, paint shops, modern retail outlets, e-commerce, paanwalas as well as stationery shops.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Phase 2 (2006 to 2014) – Unsuccessful international M&amp;A:</strong> Pidilite deployed close to ~Rs 685 crores in international acquisitions (26% of operating cash flows over this nine-year period) in Brazil, Middle East, USA and in acquiring an elastomer manufacturing plant from France. Pidilite bought small companies, some of which were operating in unrelated industries, without any market leadership. In countries like Brazil, the acquisitions were faced with an economic collapse in the country, and issues with the legacy management team of the company. Over the past decade, Pidilite has written off ~Rs 175 crores worth of its investments in subsidiaries in Brazil and Middle East, and ~Rs 300 crores of its investments in the elastomer project. The acquisition made in the USA (Cyclo) has been sold off in 2017 for ~Rs 30 crores.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Phase 3 (2014 to 2019) – Successful domestic acquisitions:</strong> Having learnt from its mistakes made in the preceding phase of international acquisitions, Pidilite has resumed its focus on frequently acquiring smaller domestic competitors in its core business. For example, Bluecoat has been acquired for ~Rs 260 crores, 6% of FY14-19 operating cash flows and Suparshva for undisclosed consideration. These acquisitions have turned out to be substantially ROCE accretive for Pidilite. The firm has also deployed ~Rs 300 crores over FY14-19 (~7% of operating cash flows and ~2-3% of capital employed over this period) to acquire businesses in adjacent categories (CIPY – floor coatings; Nina and Percept – waterproofing contractors) and has formed JVs with MNCs like ICA for niche products like wood finishes. In the JV with ICA, the MNC provides the world class technology for making the product and Pidilite uses its strong distribution network to push the product. These businesses have shown significant improvement in financial performance post acquisition. In addition to disciplined capital allocation towards M&amp;A in this phase, Pidilite also announced (and completed) a share buyback of Rs 500 crores in FY18 at Rs 1,000 per share, a 12-13% premium to the prevailing market price. This share buyback amounted to 14% of capital employed and 63% of operating cash flows in FY18.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Changes made to our Consistent Compounders Portfolio in January 2020:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Exited from Marico Ltd.: </strong>Marico maintains its dominant position across Parachute Coconut Oils, Saffola Edible Oils, and Value Added Hair Oils – the three largest segments of its revenues and earnings in India. The firm’s competitive advantages are centred around efficiencies of raw material procurement and IT investments to run an efficient supply chain and distribution infrastructure. However, in Saffola edible oils, Marico has delivered only 7% volume CAGR over FY12-19 (compared to 12-14% volume growth rates consistently prior to FY12) despite market share gains over this period, and two years ago, the management downgraded their medium-term guidance of volume growth in this product from ‘mid-teens’ to ‘high-single-digit’. Based on our recent research on this issue, we understand that this moderation in growth is due to the premium edible oils category witnessing reduction in consumption of oil per household because consumers of this product are increasingly becoming health conscious around the quantity of oil consumed in their cooking. Also, in Value Added Hair Oils, we understand that the low hanging fruits available around market share gains in areas like Amla-Hair-Oils have largely been plucked and hence VAHO segment is unlikely to report volume growth rates higher than 15% in future. In light of this, we believe that Marico is not likely to deliver earnings growth rates of 18-20% CAGR which we had previously envisaged.\r\n\r\n<strong>Added Divis laboratories: </strong>Divi’s Labs is a Hyderabad based API and nutraceutical ingredient manufacturer. It is primarily an outsourced pharma manufacturing and export franchise. Its key strengths are: a) outstanding regulatory compliance track record; b) deep relationships with big western pharma companies for contract manufacturing (CRAMS) built around trust on IP protection and product quality; c) management’s focus on deepening capabilities and increasing capacities only in bulk drugs and CRAMS segments (rather than risking dilution of focus through diversification); and d) its highly cost-efficient bulk production of key APIs for global customers. Divi’s is amongst the world’s top 3 API manufacturers. It is a global leader in production of few critical and highly voluminous molecules, and accounts for over 50% of global production of these molecules. Considering the business strengths, opportunity from relocation of outsourced manufacturing in pharma away from China and the capacity expansion and backward integration for key raw materials being undertaken by the company (with good track record of sweating assets), we expect Divi’s Labs’ profits to grow at more than 18-20% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>', 'Prudent Capital Allocation is Critical for Consistent Compounding', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'prudent-capital-allocation-is-critical-for-consistent-compounding', '', '', '2020-02-13 05:05:45', '2020-02-13 05:05:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2849', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2854, 1, '2020-02-02 10:06:20', '2020-02-02 10:06:20', 'Marcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management &amp; Investment Advisory Services, is looking for an Operational Compliance Manager with at least four years of work experience in a SEBI &amp; RBI regulated organisation. Preference will be given to candidates with legal qualification (LLB or LLM) from reputed institution, NISM certifications on PMLA &amp; KYC norms and experience in compliance with SEBI Intermediary, SEBI PMS &amp; IA regulations, RBI regulations, FPI regulations, KYC &amp; PMLA guidelines. Legal document drafting and vetting skills are must. Interested candidates can send their CV to <a href=\"mailto:careers@marcellus.in\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 7<sup>th</sup> February 2020. All CVs need to be accompanied with covering letter which clearly mentions the current employer of applicant and detailed reasons for applying for this position at Marcellus.', 'Operational Compliance Manager', '', 'private', 'open', 'closed', '', 'operational-compliance-manager', '', '', '2020-06-12 05:24:34', '2020-06-12 05:24:34', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=2854', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
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(2882, 1, '2018-11-07 08:48:44', '2018-11-07 08:48:44', 'In his 6 years stint in Ambit Private Ltd, Nitesh worked across Institutional Equities and Investment Banking division of the firm. Prior to that Nitesh worked in the investment team of private equity firm SAIF Partners in Gurgaon. Before joining SAIF, Nitesh worked as equity research analyst in CRISIL and used to track Indian Telecom &amp; Cement sector.\r\n\r\nQualifications : Nitesh is a Chartered Accountant and MBA from the Indian School of Business – Hyderabad.', 'Nitesh Bhadani, CA', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nitesh-bhadani-ca', '', '', '2020-02-09 11:47:31', '2020-02-09 11:47:31', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=team&#038;p=2882', 0, 'team', '', 0),
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(2859, 1, '2020-02-02 04:17:55', '2020-02-02 04:17:55', 'Although private equity (PE) in India has barely been around for 20 years, many of us have already seen some of our favourite brands laid low by the combined incompetence of PE firms and the original owners of the franchise. Nirula’s in the NCR is one such example.\r\nIn this piece Joe Nocera describes how Stirling Investment Partners, a mid-market PE firm in the US, acquired, rapidly expanded and then oversaw the financial unravelling of Fairway <em>“a treasured New York institution that was founded in 1933, had grown from one store on Manhattan’s Upper West Side to four stores [by 2007], three in New York City and one on Long Island. The stores were supermarket size, but they didn’t much resemble a Safeway or a Kroger. They were eclectic, with 50 brands of olive oil, dozens of varieties of olives, cheese, smoked salmon, imported beer and who knows what else. It was quintessential New York. On a per-square-foot basis, the four Fairways were among the highest grossing grocery stores in the country.”</em>\r\nThe story begins on the usual note with the original owners looking to cash out: <em>“Howie Glickberg, the grandson of the founder, was one of three partners who owned Fairway Market. The other two were ready to cash out, and others in management who held small equity stakes were looking for a payday. Glickberg needed to find a source of liquidity. Unfortunately for him, he found Sterling Investment Partners, a private equity firm based in Westport, Connecticut, that focuses on mid-market companies.”</em>\r\nThen comes the financial gearing: <em>“In the ensuing buyout, Sterling put $150 million into the company in return for an 80% ownership stake. The majority of that was debt. Needless to say, the debt landed on Fairway’s books, not Sterling’s. Three Sterling partners, including cofounder Charles Santoro, joined the board. None of them had any grocery experience.”</em>\r\nThen comes the rapid expansion along expected lines: <em>“Sterling had enormous ambitions for the company. Glickberg had envisioned expanding slowly, a store at a time. Santoro talked about turning Fairway into a national chain with hundreds of stores that would compete with Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s. Santoro did not respond to an email request for an interview.</em>\r\n<em>By 2012, Fairway was up to 12 stores, including some in suburban New Jersey, where the company’s urban cachet didn’t necessarily translate. Most of this expansion was fuelled by yet more debt. Not surprisingly, the expansion eviscerated the company’s profits while adding millions more in debt to its balance sheet. By 2012, its debt burden had grown to more than $200 million, and it was losing more than $10 million a year.”</em>\r\nThe next chapter of this familiar story is the IPO of the ailing company, something we are now accustomed to seeing in India (although we shall suppress the urge to name names), <em>“Badly in need of cash, Sterling turned to the public markets. In April 2013, Fairway Group Holdings Corp., as the company was now called, went public at $13 a share, raising $177 million. Its prospectus said that the money would go toward “new store growth and other general corporate purposes.” But that wasn’t quite accurate; the prospectus showed that more than $80 million went to pay “dividends” to preferred shareholders i.e. Sterling Investment Partners. An additional $7.3 million went to management.”</em>\r\nFinally, comes the bankruptcy: <em>“When Amazon Inc. bought Whole Foods, it meant that Fairway had a competitor with limitless cash. Fairway’s vaunted revenue-per-square-foot numbers dropped by a third. Cash flow was consistently negative. The stores looking increasingly shabby because the company couldn’t afford to keep them up. By 2016, saddled with $267 million in debt, Fairway filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It hadn’t turned a quarterly profit the entire time it was a public company.” </em>It took all of nine years to bankrupt a flourishing retailer in one of the most prosperous cities in the world at a time when interest rates were at a record low in the United States!', 'How Private Equity Wrecked New York\'s Favourite Grocery', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-private-equity-wrecked-new-yorks-favourite-grocery', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:30:03', '2020-02-03 04:30:03', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2859', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2860, 1, '2020-02-03 04:29:46', '2020-02-03 04:29:46', '', 'How Private Equity Wrecked New York\'s Favourite Grocery', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2859-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:29:46', '2020-02-03 04:29:46', '', 2859, 'https://marcellus.in/2859-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2861, 1, '2020-02-03 04:30:03', '2020-02-03 04:30:03', 'Although private equity (PE) in India has barely been around for 20 years, many of us have already seen some of our favourite brands laid low by the combined incompetence of PE firms and the original owners of the franchise. Nirula’s in the NCR is one such example.\r\nIn this piece Joe Nocera describes how Stirling Investment Partners, a mid-market PE firm in the US, acquired, rapidly expanded and then oversaw the financial unravelling of Fairway <em>“a treasured New York institution that was founded in 1933, had grown from one store on Manhattan’s Upper West Side to four stores [by 2007], three in New York City and one on Long Island. The stores were supermarket size, but they didn’t much resemble a Safeway or a Kroger. They were eclectic, with 50 brands of olive oil, dozens of varieties of olives, cheese, smoked salmon, imported beer and who knows what else. It was quintessential New York. On a per-square-foot basis, the four Fairways were among the highest grossing grocery stores in the country.”</em>\r\nThe story begins on the usual note with the original owners looking to cash out: <em>“Howie Glickberg, the grandson of the founder, was one of three partners who owned Fairway Market. The other two were ready to cash out, and others in management who held small equity stakes were looking for a payday. Glickberg needed to find a source of liquidity. Unfortunately for him, he found Sterling Investment Partners, a private equity firm based in Westport, Connecticut, that focuses on mid-market companies.”</em>\r\nThen comes the financial gearing: <em>“In the ensuing buyout, Sterling put $150 million into the company in return for an 80% ownership stake. The majority of that was debt. Needless to say, the debt landed on Fairway’s books, not Sterling’s. Three Sterling partners, including cofounder Charles Santoro, joined the board. None of them had any grocery experience.”</em>\r\nThen comes the rapid expansion along expected lines: <em>“Sterling had enormous ambitions for the company. Glickberg had envisioned expanding slowly, a store at a time. Santoro talked about turning Fairway into a national chain with hundreds of stores that would compete with Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s. Santoro did not respond to an email request for an interview.</em>\r\n<em>By 2012, Fairway was up to 12 stores, including some in suburban New Jersey, where the company’s urban cachet didn’t necessarily translate. Most of this expansion was fuelled by yet more debt. Not surprisingly, the expansion eviscerated the company’s profits while adding millions more in debt to its balance sheet. By 2012, its debt burden had grown to more than $200 million, and it was losing more than $10 million a year.”</em>\r\nThe next chapter of this familiar story is the IPO of the ailing company, something we are now accustomed to seeing in India (although we shall suppress the urge to name names), <em>“Badly in need of cash, Sterling turned to the public markets. In April 2013, Fairway Group Holdings Corp., as the company was now called, went public at $13 a share, raising $177 million. Its prospectus said that the money would go toward “new store growth and other general corporate purposes.” But that wasn’t quite accurate; the prospectus showed that more than $80 million went to pay “dividends” to preferred shareholders i.e. Sterling Investment Partners. An additional $7.3 million went to management.”</em>\r\nFinally, comes the bankruptcy: <em>“When Amazon Inc. bought Whole Foods, it meant that Fairway had a competitor with limitless cash. Fairway’s vaunted revenue-per-square-foot numbers dropped by a third. Cash flow was consistently negative. The stores looking increasingly shabby because the company couldn’t afford to keep them up. By 2016, saddled with $267 million in debt, Fairway filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. It hadn’t turned a quarterly profit the entire time it was a public company.” </em>It took all of nine years to bankrupt a flourishing retailer in one of the most prosperous cities in the world at a time when interest rates were at a record low in the United States!', 'How Private Equity Wrecked New York\'s Favourite Grocery', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2859-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:30:03', '2020-02-03 04:30:03', '', 2859, 'https://marcellus.in/2859-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2862, 1, '2020-02-02 04:30:15', '2020-02-02 04:30:15', 'Friends in Singapore keep telling us that it ain’t like the good old times in the city. The city apparently as friendly and as habitable as it was a decade ago. This piece in the Asian Review details the challenges facing Singapore.\r\nThe first problem is the familiar challenge of blue-collar manufacturing jobs disappearing: <em>“Midlevel jobs in manufacturing and multinational companies are disappearing, and being replaced by technology and financial services roles, which are easier to fill with younger, more affordable migrants. Singaporeans like Aziz struggle to get back into the workforce. Only half of retrenched over-50s are reemployed full time within six months. Nearly three-quarters of people laid off in Singapore last quarter were what the country classifies as professionals, managers, executives and technicians, or PMETs.”</em>\r\nHowever, because of white collar part of the Singapore (tech companies, Financial Services companies) continuing to flourish, the cost of living continues to rise. <em>“The bottom 20% of Singaporean households have an average monthly shortfall of S$335 between their incomes and outgoings, according to the government\'s latest economic survey. Living costs have risen. Water bills are up 30% since 2017; medical costs have increased 10% in just over five years, an acute problem in a population that is aging rapidly.”</em>\r\nChallenge #3 is slowing GDP growth: <em>“Technological disruption is breaking the link between economic growth and earnings. Growth has slowed to its lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis tipped the island into recession.”</em>\r\nAll of these challenges obviously create political issues: <em>“The depth and pace of economic progress established the political legitimacy of the PAP for generations. The party has never been out of power. Lee Kuan Yew\'s son, Lee Hsien Loong, is the current prime minister….\"The PAP\'s legitimacy has depended not primarily on electoral performance or democratic accountability. Its primary source of legitimacy has come from economic performance,\" says Donald Low, who spent 15 years in senior government roles and is now an associate partner at consultancy Centennial Asia Advisors. \"I think the social compact is fraying. The PAP\'s capability to ensure upward social mobility as long as you work hard and get an education, that ability has been seriously eroded.\"”</em>\r\nCiting Yeoh Lam Keong, former Chief Economist of GIC, the author then makes a a set of really interesting points which connects what is ailing Singapore to what is happening in the rest of the world: <em>“The roots of Singapore\'s current problems, Yeoh believes, were planted in the 1990s, when its politics lurched rightward. In line with the prevailing neoliberal thinking, the government moved toward a more market-based approach to the pricing and ownership of HDB flats. Many citizens bought houses, taking advantage of a government scheme that allows citizens to use the savings in their Central Provident Fund -- a compulsory pension scheme -- to do so. Property prices were booming, so in theory this meant that they would have a valuable asset in retirement, which they could sell or borrow against.</em>\r\n<em>However, HDB houses are sold as leaseholds, and the leases are ticking down. The value of many older homes has peaked, and their owners face a retirement with a depreciating asset and a diminished pension pot. That means the signature social policy has gone from one of the most successful public housing initiatives of the 20th century, to a liability for some elderly citizens, Yeoh said. \"It\'s a time bomb.\"</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps a more consequential policy decision was made in the belief -- and up to that point, the experience -- that growth would continue to drive social mobility and job creation.</em>\r\n<em>\"They thought that they wanted to maximize welfare by maximizing growth. They had one huge policy lever, which was immigration,\" Yeoh says.</em>\r\n<em>A state scheme to set up Singaporeans with housing assets is backfiring; thanks to a stagnant market in HDB sales, many elderly homeowners are now, in fact, saddled with liabilities. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)</em>\r\n<em>Between 2000 and 2010, Singapore\'s immigrant population nearly doubled from 755,000 to 1.3 million, not counting foreign-born citizens given permanent residence status. As of June 2019, Singapore\'s population was composed of 3.5 million citizens, 530,000 permanent residents and 1.7 million foreign workers, students and dependents.</em>\r\n<em>\"Relative to the base population, you haven\'t seen that anywhere else. It\'s unimaginable. It depressed permanently the wages of all those at the bottom,\" Yeoh says.</em>\r\n<em>Singapore has no statutory minimum wages, and labor unions have little power, so there was nothing to cushion the blow. A generation whose incomes had loosely tracked the country\'s growth suddenly found it accelerating away from them.</em>\r\n<em>\"You\'re earning your adult life in a middle-income country, and you end up having to retire ... in one of the richest developed countries in the world,\" Yeoh says. \"It\'s like working in the Philippines and retiring in London.\"”</em>', 'Is Singapore\'s \'perfect\' economy coming apart?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'is-singapores-perfect-economy-coming-apart', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:35:53', '2020-02-03 04:35:53', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2862', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2863, 1, '2020-02-03 04:35:53', '2020-02-03 04:35:53', 'Friends in Singapore keep telling us that it ain’t like the good old times in the city. The city apparently as friendly and as habitable as it was a decade ago. This piece in the Asian Review details the challenges facing Singapore.\r\nThe first problem is the familiar challenge of blue-collar manufacturing jobs disappearing: <em>“Midlevel jobs in manufacturing and multinational companies are disappearing, and being replaced by technology and financial services roles, which are easier to fill with younger, more affordable migrants. Singaporeans like Aziz struggle to get back into the workforce. Only half of retrenched over-50s are reemployed full time within six months. Nearly three-quarters of people laid off in Singapore last quarter were what the country classifies as professionals, managers, executives and technicians, or PMETs.”</em>\r\nHowever, because of white collar part of the Singapore (tech companies, Financial Services companies) continuing to flourish, the cost of living continues to rise. <em>“The bottom 20% of Singaporean households have an average monthly shortfall of S$335 between their incomes and outgoings, according to the government\'s latest economic survey. Living costs have risen. Water bills are up 30% since 2017; medical costs have increased 10% in just over five years, an acute problem in a population that is aging rapidly.”</em>\r\nChallenge #3 is slowing GDP growth: <em>“Technological disruption is breaking the link between economic growth and earnings. Growth has slowed to its lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis tipped the island into recession.”</em>\r\nAll of these challenges obviously create political issues: <em>“The depth and pace of economic progress established the political legitimacy of the PAP for generations. The party has never been out of power. Lee Kuan Yew\'s son, Lee Hsien Loong, is the current prime minister….\"The PAP\'s legitimacy has depended not primarily on electoral performance or democratic accountability. Its primary source of legitimacy has come from economic performance,\" says Donald Low, who spent 15 years in senior government roles and is now an associate partner at consultancy Centennial Asia Advisors. \"I think the social compact is fraying. The PAP\'s capability to ensure upward social mobility as long as you work hard and get an education, that ability has been seriously eroded.\"”</em>\r\nCiting Yeoh Lam Keong, former Chief Economist of GIC, the author then makes a a set of really interesting points which connects what is ailing Singapore to what is happening in the rest of the world: <em>“The roots of Singapore\'s current problems, Yeoh believes, were planted in the 1990s, when its politics lurched rightward. In line with the prevailing neoliberal thinking, the government moved toward a more market-based approach to the pricing and ownership of HDB flats. Many citizens bought houses, taking advantage of a government scheme that allows citizens to use the savings in their Central Provident Fund -- a compulsory pension scheme -- to do so. Property prices were booming, so in theory this meant that they would have a valuable asset in retirement, which they could sell or borrow against.</em>\r\n<em>However, HDB houses are sold as leaseholds, and the leases are ticking down. The value of many older homes has peaked, and their owners face a retirement with a depreciating asset and a diminished pension pot. That means the signature social policy has gone from one of the most successful public housing initiatives of the 20th century, to a liability for some elderly citizens, Yeoh said. \"It\'s a time bomb.\"</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps a more consequential policy decision was made in the belief -- and up to that point, the experience -- that growth would continue to drive social mobility and job creation.</em>\r\n<em>\"They thought that they wanted to maximize welfare by maximizing growth. They had one huge policy lever, which was immigration,\" Yeoh says.</em>\r\n<em>A state scheme to set up Singaporeans with housing assets is backfiring; thanks to a stagnant market in HDB sales, many elderly homeowners are now, in fact, saddled with liabilities. (Photo by Ken Kobayashi)</em>\r\n<em>Between 2000 and 2010, Singapore\'s immigrant population nearly doubled from 755,000 to 1.3 million, not counting foreign-born citizens given permanent residence status. As of June 2019, Singapore\'s population was composed of 3.5 million citizens, 530,000 permanent residents and 1.7 million foreign workers, students and dependents.</em>\r\n<em>\"Relative to the base population, you haven\'t seen that anywhere else. It\'s unimaginable. It depressed permanently the wages of all those at the bottom,\" Yeoh says.</em>\r\n<em>Singapore has no statutory minimum wages, and labor unions have little power, so there was nothing to cushion the blow. A generation whose incomes had loosely tracked the country\'s growth suddenly found it accelerating away from them.</em>\r\n<em>\"You\'re earning your adult life in a middle-income country, and you end up having to retire ... in one of the richest developed countries in the world,\" Yeoh says. \"It\'s like working in the Philippines and retiring in London.\"”</em>', 'Is Singapore\'s \'perfect\' economy coming apart?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2862-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:35:53', '2020-02-03 04:35:53', '', 2862, 'https://marcellus.in/2862-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2864, 1, '2020-02-02 04:36:00', '2020-02-02 04:36:00', 'Kevin Rooke is a young independent analyst focusing on investment research on technology companies. Some of his other posts about how Apple’s booming airpods business at $12bn revenues alone is bigger than some marquee tech companies including the likes of Adobe, Nvidia or AMD or the one on Tesla’s now meaningfully large energy storage business making Tesla not just an automobile company, have been quite insightful. This one is about space travel. With all three space travel companies – Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic – promising to put their first tourists into space this year, it is an exciting time to be discussing this topic. Kevin’s post not just focuses on the ‘Breakthrough for mankind’ aspect but also the economics of it were it to become another mainstream transportation industry.\r\n<em>“..In the first 12 years of NASA’s creation (1958-1969), the agency spent an inflation-adjusted $253 billion in pursuit of Kennedy’s goal. In 1966, roughly 4.4% of all US government funds went to NASA. And since then, NASA has continued to spend roughly $20 billion per year (inflation adjusted). That’s over $1 trillion spent on various space missions over the last 50 years. And the cumulative result is that 565 people have been to space in human history….the point is that it cost a ton of money to send the first astronauts to space. Somewhere on the scale of $10-$100 billion per person seems about right”</em>\r\nSo why are Bezos, Musk and Branson so gungho about something that seems so ludicrously expensive? Is it just another exclusive playground for the billionaire boys’ fetish? Or has something fundamentally changed making it economically viable?\r\n<em>“For one, 50 years of computer chip innovation means the technology behind today’s rocket development and guidance systems absolutely embarasses the technology used back in 1969.</em>\r\n<em>3D printed components can be made at lower costs and higher quality than any manufacturing process from the 1960s. And the cellphone in your pocket has roughly 100,000x more processing power and 1,000,000x more memory than the Apollo 11 guidance system that first sent man to the moon.</em>\r\n<em>But a shift in rocket design has also enabled a steep decline in the cost to send humans to space. The transition from building single-use vehicles to re-usable vehicles means for the cost of building one rocket, many flights can be completed.</em>\r\n<em>Today’s airline industry is a perfect example of a re-usable flight system. A single Boeing 747 plane can endure upwards of 35,000 flights before metal fatigue sets in. If you think your $500 plane ticket is expensive today, take a second to appreciate the 99.997% discount you receive simply because your plane can be re-used.”</em>\r\nThe rest of the blog explores the investment case for space tourism using the example of Virgin Galactic, the only space tourism pureplay of the three – with the other two having ancillary business models. Virgin Galactic is valued at $3bn with no revenues today.\r\nWith a space ticket costing $250k, finding enough customers shouldn’t be a challenge. However, like most tech businesses, with viability established, competition and the ensuing scale are likely to push down costs and therefore pricing. For this Kevin reckons Virgin should position itself as offering a differentiated experience a la Disney than just commoditised space transport.\r\n<em>“Disney theme parks are great examples of world class experiences with large moats. Disney’s “Parks, Experiences, and Products” business line does over $26 billion in annual revenues, and contributes almost $7 billion of annual operating margin. That represents 45% of the entire company’s operating profits, and a substantial chunk of Disney’s $256 billion valuation today.</em>\r\n<em>Disneyland isn’t worried about the Knotts Berry Farm across the street undercutting their prices. They’re focused on being the “Happiest Place on Earth”. Their fantastic brand name and global reputation for creating magical experiences is what allows Disney to maintain strong margins on a business with many competitors afoot.</em>\r\n<em>And if Virgin Galactic is going to maintain 70% gross margins for years to come, they’ll have to replicate the magic of Disney theme parks in space. Their space flights are already being designed as week-long experiences based out of their New Mexico ‘Spaceport America’, but that’s just the start of what the Virgin Galactic team is dreaming up.</em>\r\n<em>Their enigmatic founder Richard Branson is among the world’s greatest entrepreneurs, and he has been crafting the Virgin brand over 50 years into the instantly recognizable icon it is today. Everything he does is larger than life, and his ambition for Virgin Galactic is no different.</em>\r\n<em>The following quote from Richard Branson describes his vision for Virgin Galactic, and the similarities to a type of “Disneyland in outer space” are unquestionable.</em>\r\n<em>“Let\'s go 20 years forward, if all of this goes to plan, I hope that we will have a hotel in space; and in that hotel I hope we will have small spaceships that can go around the Moon - an excursion”</em>”', 'Virgin Galactic And The Potential of Space Tourism', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'virgin-galactic-and-the-potential-of-space-tourism', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:37:32', '2020-02-03 04:37:32', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2864', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2865, 1, '2020-02-03 04:37:32', '2020-02-03 04:37:32', 'Kevin Rooke is a young independent analyst focusing on investment research on technology companies. Some of his other posts about how Apple’s booming airpods business at $12bn revenues alone is bigger than some marquee tech companies including the likes of Adobe, Nvidia or AMD or the one on Tesla’s now meaningfully large energy storage business making Tesla not just an automobile company, have been quite insightful. This one is about space travel. With all three space travel companies – Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic – promising to put their first tourists into space this year, it is an exciting time to be discussing this topic. Kevin’s post not just focuses on the ‘Breakthrough for mankind’ aspect but also the economics of it were it to become another mainstream transportation industry.\r\n<em>“..In the first 12 years of NASA’s creation (1958-1969), the agency spent an inflation-adjusted $253 billion in pursuit of Kennedy’s goal. In 1966, roughly 4.4% of all US government funds went to NASA. And since then, NASA has continued to spend roughly $20 billion per year (inflation adjusted). That’s over $1 trillion spent on various space missions over the last 50 years. And the cumulative result is that 565 people have been to space in human history….the point is that it cost a ton of money to send the first astronauts to space. Somewhere on the scale of $10-$100 billion per person seems about right”</em>\r\nSo why are Bezos, Musk and Branson so gungho about something that seems so ludicrously expensive? Is it just another exclusive playground for the billionaire boys’ fetish? Or has something fundamentally changed making it economically viable?\r\n<em>“For one, 50 years of computer chip innovation means the technology behind today’s rocket development and guidance systems absolutely embarasses the technology used back in 1969.</em>\r\n<em>3D printed components can be made at lower costs and higher quality than any manufacturing process from the 1960s. And the cellphone in your pocket has roughly 100,000x more processing power and 1,000,000x more memory than the Apollo 11 guidance system that first sent man to the moon.</em>\r\n<em>But a shift in rocket design has also enabled a steep decline in the cost to send humans to space. The transition from building single-use vehicles to re-usable vehicles means for the cost of building one rocket, many flights can be completed.</em>\r\n<em>Today’s airline industry is a perfect example of a re-usable flight system. A single Boeing 747 plane can endure upwards of 35,000 flights before metal fatigue sets in. If you think your $500 plane ticket is expensive today, take a second to appreciate the 99.997% discount you receive simply because your plane can be re-used.”</em>\r\nThe rest of the blog explores the investment case for space tourism using the example of Virgin Galactic, the only space tourism pureplay of the three – with the other two having ancillary business models. Virgin Galactic is valued at $3bn with no revenues today.\r\nWith a space ticket costing $250k, finding enough customers shouldn’t be a challenge. However, like most tech businesses, with viability established, competition and the ensuing scale are likely to push down costs and therefore pricing. For this Kevin reckons Virgin should position itself as offering a differentiated experience a la Disney than just commoditised space transport.\r\n<em>“Disney theme parks are great examples of world class experiences with large moats. Disney’s “Parks, Experiences, and Products” business line does over $26 billion in annual revenues, and contributes almost $7 billion of annual operating margin. That represents 45% of the entire company’s operating profits, and a substantial chunk of Disney’s $256 billion valuation today.</em>\r\n<em>Disneyland isn’t worried about the Knotts Berry Farm across the street undercutting their prices. They’re focused on being the “Happiest Place on Earth”. Their fantastic brand name and global reputation for creating magical experiences is what allows Disney to maintain strong margins on a business with many competitors afoot.</em>\r\n<em>And if Virgin Galactic is going to maintain 70% gross margins for years to come, they’ll have to replicate the magic of Disney theme parks in space. Their space flights are already being designed as week-long experiences based out of their New Mexico ‘Spaceport America’, but that’s just the start of what the Virgin Galactic team is dreaming up.</em>\r\n<em>Their enigmatic founder Richard Branson is among the world’s greatest entrepreneurs, and he has been crafting the Virgin brand over 50 years into the instantly recognizable icon it is today. Everything he does is larger than life, and his ambition for Virgin Galactic is no different.</em>\r\n<em>The following quote from Richard Branson describes his vision for Virgin Galactic, and the similarities to a type of “Disneyland in outer space” are unquestionable.</em>\r\n<em>“Let\'s go 20 years forward, if all of this goes to plan, I hope that we will have a hotel in space; and in that hotel I hope we will have small spaceships that can go around the Moon - an excursion”</em>”', 'Virgin Galactic And The Potential of Space Tourism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:37:32', '2020-02-03 04:37:32', '', 2864, 'https://marcellus.in/2864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2866, 1, '2020-02-02 04:37:38', '2020-02-02 04:37:38', '<div>You can’t go too wrong with your reading if you have Bill Gates making your reading list. In this blog post, he reviews Matthew Walker’s “Why We Sleep” and based on his learnings, provides a quick tutorial on the why’s and how’s of sleep science. Reflecting upon his younger days as a software engineer pulling all-nighters, Gates cites Walker’s finding of <em>“how neglecting sleep undercuts your creativity, problem solving, decision-making, learning, memory, heart health, brain health, mental health, emotional well-being, immune system, and even your life span. “The decimation of sleep throughout industrialized nations is having a catastrophic impact,” Walker writes.”</em>\r\n<em>“<strong>Does everyone really need seven or eight hours of sleep a night? </strong>The answer is that you almost certainly do, even if you’ve convinced yourself otherwise. In the words of Dr. Thomas Roth, of the Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit, “The number of people who can survive on five hours of sleep or less without impairment, and rounded to a whole number, is zero.”</em>\r\n<strong><em>Why do we sleep?</em></strong><em> After all, when you’re sleeping—and all animals do—you can’t hunt, gather, eat, reproduce, or defend yourself. Yet Walker concludes that the evolutionary upsides of sleep are far greater than these downsides. In brief, sleep produces complex neurochemical baths that improve our brains in various ways. And it “restocks the armory of our immune system, helping fight malignancy, preventing infection, and warding off all manner of sickness.” In other words, sleep greatly enhances our evolutionary fitness—just in ways we can’t see.</em>\r\n<strong><em>What can I do to improve my sleep hygiene?</em></strong></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Replace any LEDs bulbs in your bedroom, because they emit the most sleep-corroding blue light.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>If you’re fortunate enough to be able to control the temperature where you live, set your bedroom to drop to 65 degrees at the time you intend to go to sleep. “To successfully initiate sleep … your core temperature needs to decrease by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit,” according to Walker.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Limit alcohol, because alcohol is not a sleep aid, contrary to popular belief. While it might help induce sleep, “alcohol is one of the most powerful suppressors of REM [rapid-eye-movement] sleep,” Walker says.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>If you can possibly take a short midday nap like our ancestors used to and some Mediterranean and South American cultures still do, you should (but no later than 3 pm). It will likely improve your creativity and coronary health as well as extend your lifetime.</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'This book put me to sleep', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'this-book-put-me-to-sleep', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:17:17', '2020-02-03 05:17:17', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2866', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2867, 1, '2020-02-03 04:38:46', '2020-02-03 04:38:46', '<div>You can’t go too wrong with your reading if you have Bill Gates making your reading list. In this blog post, he reviews Matthew Walker’s “Why We Sleep” and based on his learnings, provides a quick tutorial on the why’s and how’s of sleep science. Reflecting upon his younger days as a software engineer pulling all-nighters, Gates cites Walker’s finding of <em>“how neglecting sleep undercuts your creativity, problem solving, decision-making, learning, memory, heart health, brain health, mental health, emotional well-being, immune system, and even your life span. “The decimation of sleep throughout industrialized nations is having a catastrophic impact,” Walker writes.”</em>\r\n<em>“<strong>Does everyone really need seven or eight hours of sleep a night? </strong>The answer is that you almost certainly do, even if you’ve convinced yourself otherwise. In the words of Dr. Thomas Roth, of the Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit, “The number of people who can survive on five hours of sleep or less without impairment, and rounded to a whole number, is zero.”</em>\r\n<strong><em>Why do we sleep?</em></strong><em> After all, when you’re sleeping—and all animals do—you can’t hunt, gather, eat, reproduce, or defend yourself. Yet Walker concludes that the evolutionary upsides of sleep are far greater than these downsides. In brief, sleep produces complex neurochemical baths that improve our brains in various ways. And it “restocks the armory of our immune system, helping fight malignancy, preventing infection, and warding off all manner of sickness.” In other words, sleep greatly enhances our evolutionary fitness—just in ways we can’t see.</em>\r\n<strong><em>What can I do to improve my sleep hygiene?</em></strong></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Replace any LEDs bulbs in your bedroom, because they emit the most sleep-corroding blue light.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>If you’re fortunate enough to be able to control the temperature where you live, set your bedroom to drop to 65 degrees at the time you intend to go to sleep. “To successfully initiate sleep … your core temperature needs to decrease by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit,” according to Walker.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Limit alcohol, because alcohol is not a sleep aid, contrary to popular belief. While it might help induce sleep, “alcohol is one of the most powerful suppressors of REM [rapid-eye-movement] sleep,” Walker says.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>If you can possibly take a short midday nap like our ancestors used to and some Mediterranean and South American cultures still do, you should (but no later than 3 pm). It will likely improve your creativity and coronary health as well as extend your lifetime.</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'This book put me to sleep', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2866-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 04:38:46', '2020-02-03 04:38:46', '', 2866, 'https://marcellus.in/2866-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2868, 1, '2020-02-02 05:13:15', '2020-02-02 05:13:15', '<hr />\r\n\r\nIt is that time of the year when billionaires across the world come together at the Swiss ski resort town of Davos to ideate on how to make the world a better place. Tim Wu of the NY Times writes why the event is becoming increasingly farcical given the ironies involved. Last week, a meme on Twitter captured the sentiment somewhat <em>“1500 private jets have landed at Davos where the global elitists will talk about Climate Change and then come back and lecture you on why you should take the bus so you can conserve fuel”. </em>1500 is a new record for Davos.\r\n<em>“Walking around, I thought at times that I had mistakenly wandered into a business-casual Bernie Sanders rally: unrestrained capitalism has gone too far; corporate greed has endangered the planet; the time has come for radical change. On the train into Davos, a representative of Philip Morris told me that the company was “dedicated to a smoke-free future.” I blinked; she said the company had “a duty” to millions of addicted smokers.”</em>\r\nIndeed, the World Economic Forum released the Davos Manifesto which says that companies <em>“must pay their fair share of taxes; treat suppliers and workers well; accept fair competition; and have “zero tolerance for corruption.””</em>\r\n<em>“Unfortunately, there’s no particular requirement that Davos attendees actually sign or adhere to it. Donald Trump appears to have personally violated nearly every one of its dictates, yet he was a warmly welcomed opening speaker. Nor have the corporate attendees consistently endeavored, as the Davos Manifesto demands, to pay their “fair share” of taxes, continuously improve the “well-being” of employees, or treat “executive remuneration” responsibly.</em>\r\n<em>…So why not make future attendance at Davos limited to those companies that pledge agreement to the Davos Manifesto, and lean harder on miscreants? Why not, for a start, suspend all members convicted of bribery or other serious ethical offenses? The major cigarette companies were quietly disinvited from official Davos events: Should the American sellers of opioids really be showcased at an event committed to “improving the state of the world?”</em>\r\n<em>The forum’s traditional response is that Davos needs to be a neutral platform, open to contending views, and even to those who are resistant to its goals. As Klaus Schwab, the founder of the forum, says in a new documentary, “If you were a priest in a church, you would want to make the sinners come visit you on a Sunday.”</em>\r\nWhether this whole talk of stakeholder capitalism results in action or not, the investment management industry seems to be making hay with a boom in ESG themed funds (ESG stands for Environment, Social and Corporate Governance for measuring sustainability and societal impact of corporates). Indeed, 2019 turned out to be the year when ESG funds finally took off with a four-fold increase in fund flows to $20bn after having stagnated at $3-5bn p.a for the past six years.', 'The Revolution Comes to Davos', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-revolution-comes-to-davos', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2868', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2869, 1, '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '<hr />\r\n\r\nIt is that time of the year when billionaires across the world come together at the Swiss ski resort town of Davos to ideate on how to make the world a better place. Tim Wu of the NY Times writes why the event is becoming increasingly farcical given the ironies involved. Last week, a meme on Twitter captured the sentiment somewhat <em>“1500 private jets have landed at Davos where the global elitists will talk about Climate Change and then come back and lecture you on why you should take the bus so you can conserve fuel”. </em>1500 is a new record for Davos.\r\n<em>“Walking around, I thought at times that I had mistakenly wandered into a business-casual Bernie Sanders rally: unrestrained capitalism has gone too far; corporate greed has endangered the planet; the time has come for radical change. On the train into Davos, a representative of Philip Morris told me that the company was “dedicated to a smoke-free future.” I blinked; she said the company had “a duty” to millions of addicted smokers.”</em>\r\nIndeed, the World Economic Forum released the Davos Manifesto which says that companies <em>“must pay their fair share of taxes; treat suppliers and workers well; accept fair competition; and have “zero tolerance for corruption.””</em>\r\n<em>“Unfortunately, there’s no particular requirement that Davos attendees actually sign or adhere to it. Donald Trump appears to have personally violated nearly every one of its dictates, yet he was a warmly welcomed opening speaker. Nor have the corporate attendees consistently endeavored, as the Davos Manifesto demands, to pay their “fair share” of taxes, continuously improve the “well-being” of employees, or treat “executive remuneration” responsibly.</em>\r\n<em>…So why not make future attendance at Davos limited to those companies that pledge agreement to the Davos Manifesto, and lean harder on miscreants? Why not, for a start, suspend all members convicted of bribery or other serious ethical offenses? The major cigarette companies were quietly disinvited from official Davos events: Should the American sellers of opioids really be showcased at an event committed to “improving the state of the world?”</em>\r\n<em>The forum’s traditional response is that Davos needs to be a neutral platform, open to contending views, and even to those who are resistant to its goals. As Klaus Schwab, the founder of the forum, says in a new documentary, “If you were a priest in a church, you would want to make the sinners come visit you on a Sunday.”</em>\r\nWhether this whole talk of stakeholder capitalism results in action or not, the investment management industry seems to be making hay with a boom in ESG themed funds (ESG stands for Environment, Social and Corporate Governance for measuring sustainability and societal impact of corporates). Indeed, 2019 turned out to be the year when ESG funds finally took off with a four-fold increase in fund flows to $20bn after having stagnated at $3-5bn p.a for the past six years.', 'The Revolution Comes to Davos', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2868-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '2020-02-03 05:15:04', '', 2868, 'https://marcellus.in/2868-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2870, 1, '2020-02-02 05:15:17', '2020-02-02 05:15:17', 'The last couple of decades have seen a new stream of sources of information and insight with the emergence of social media or user generated content. Whilst books, journals, periodicals and news papers have contributed immensely over time, blogs, Ted talk videos, podcasts, etc have become a rich supplementary source. Whilst we have featured most of these sources at 3L-3S, for the first time we choose to feature a Twitter thread -  by Michael Mauboussin, one of the most thoughtful investment analysts over the past three decades and an adjunct professor at the Columbia Business School. He tweeted this thread as he started this year’s course on Security analysis at the school – a course famously started by the legendary Benjamin Graham in 1927. Whilst the thread itself qualifies as a short read, the references to the research papers cited by Mauboussin makes it as good as accessing the whole course free on Twitter.\r\nSome nuggets of investment wisdom:\r\n<strong>On value investing: </strong><em>“People often think about value investing in one of two ways: (1) statistical factors - e.g., P/B, P/E; or (2) buying securities with prices below value. I am firmly in the second camp, although the approaches are not mutually exclusive Sometimes statistically cheap = good value. </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=33fc4758cb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D33fc4758cb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGrVGwuPqGjwl9zRX_OFQFIXQLC7g\">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/<wbr />papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539</a>\r\n<strong>On the shift in corporate investments from tangible to intangible: </strong><em>A big part of the story is the massive shift in the form of investment, from tangible to intangible. This means analysts have to go back to basics and figure out the *magnitude of investment* and the *return on investment,* whether on the IS or BS. </em><em>Acknowledging this shift changes the discourse on corporate investment. \"Recent studies examining Capex lament the declining trend in firms’ operating investments. The trend turns positive once the investment portion of Main SG&amp;A is included.\" </em><em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=63dc4e9ecb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D63dc4e9ecb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGdBp6LnqpFlst3n2HQ4A4pkAUOwQ\">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/<wbr />papers.cfm?abstract_id=2715722</a></em>\r\n<strong>On the use of multiples for valuation: </strong><em>We spend a lot of time discussing the limitations of multiples for valuation. You earn the right to use a multiple only when you demonstrate that you understand the economic assumptions that are behind it.</em>\r\n<em>(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2e45160778&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2e45160778%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHiN32aNTSlT2CEfoqeKdev3MZeNQ\">https://www.<wbr />bluemountaincapital.com/wp-<wbr />content/uploads/2015/03/What-<wbr />Does-an-EV-EBITDA-Multiple-<wbr />Mean.pdf</a>)</em>', 'Security analysis at Columbia Business Schol', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'security-analysis-at-columbia-business-schol', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:18:05', '2020-02-03 05:18:05', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2870', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2871, 1, '2020-02-03 05:16:22', '2020-02-03 05:16:22', '', 'Security analysis at Columbia Business Schol', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2870-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:16:22', '2020-02-03 05:16:22', '', 2870, 'https://marcellus.in/2870-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2872, 1, '2020-02-03 05:18:05', '2020-02-03 05:18:05', 'The last couple of decades have seen a new stream of sources of information and insight with the emergence of social media or user generated content. Whilst books, journals, periodicals and news papers have contributed immensely over time, blogs, Ted talk videos, podcasts, etc have become a rich supplementary source. Whilst we have featured most of these sources at 3L-3S, for the first time we choose to feature a Twitter thread -  by Michael Mauboussin, one of the most thoughtful investment analysts over the past three decades and an adjunct professor at the Columbia Business School. He tweeted this thread as he started this year’s course on Security analysis at the school – a course famously started by the legendary Benjamin Graham in 1927. Whilst the thread itself qualifies as a short read, the references to the research papers cited by Mauboussin makes it as good as accessing the whole course free on Twitter.\r\nSome nuggets of investment wisdom:\r\n<strong>On value investing: </strong><em>“People often think about value investing in one of two ways: (1) statistical factors - e.g., P/B, P/E; or (2) buying securities with prices below value. I am firmly in the second camp, although the approaches are not mutually exclusive Sometimes statistically cheap = good value. </em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=33fc4758cb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D33fc4758cb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGrVGwuPqGjwl9zRX_OFQFIXQLC7g\">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/<wbr />papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539</a>\r\n<strong>On the shift in corporate investments from tangible to intangible: </strong><em>A big part of the story is the massive shift in the form of investment, from tangible to intangible. This means analysts have to go back to basics and figure out the *magnitude of investment* and the *return on investment,* whether on the IS or BS. </em><em>Acknowledging this shift changes the discourse on corporate investment. \"Recent studies examining Capex lament the declining trend in firms’ operating investments. The trend turns positive once the investment portion of Main SG&amp;A is included.\" </em><em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=63dc4e9ecb&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D63dc4e9ecb%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGdBp6LnqpFlst3n2HQ4A4pkAUOwQ\">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/<wbr />papers.cfm?abstract_id=2715722</a></em>\r\n<strong>On the use of multiples for valuation: </strong><em>We spend a lot of time discussing the limitations of multiples for valuation. You earn the right to use a multiple only when you demonstrate that you understand the economic assumptions that are behind it.</em>\r\n<em>(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2e45160778&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2e45160778%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1580792801198000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHiN32aNTSlT2CEfoqeKdev3MZeNQ\">https://www.<wbr />bluemountaincapital.com/wp-<wbr />content/uploads/2015/03/What-<wbr />Does-an-EV-EBITDA-Multiple-<wbr />Mean.pdf</a>)</em>', 'Security analysis at Columbia Business Schol', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2870-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 05:18:05', '2020-02-03 05:18:05', '', 2870, 'https://marcellus.in/2870-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3465, 1, '2020-06-08 18:14:16', '2020-06-08 18:14:16', '', 'NRO CCP', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nro-ccp', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:14:16', '2020-06-08 18:14:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/NRO-CCP.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(2874, 1, '2020-02-03 09:51:42', '2020-02-03 09:51:42', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-03 09:51:42', '2020-02-03 09:51:42', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2880, 1, '2020-02-08 05:45:15', '2020-02-08 05:45:15', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-08 05:45:15', '2020-02-08 05:45:15', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2915, 1, '2020-02-16 04:55:50', '2020-02-16 04:55:50', 'In a world where those who don’t display bigotry vis a vis foreigners are not seen as real men, The Print has a lovely story on the role of IBM – and the United States more generally – in the creation of IIT Kanpur. And how that elite university has now returned the favour by giving IBM its new CEO.\r\n<em>“The institute in Kanpur, like other IITs, was set up with the help of foreign governments. If the Soviet Union assisted IIT Bombay, West Germany helped build IIT Madras, and the United Kingdom IIT Delhi, the United States provided the technical assistance that helped the Indian government establish IIT Kanpur. Its creation — through a “consortium of nine American engineering institutions” — was among the rare successful outcomes of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s disastrous 1961 visit to the US….</em>\r\n<em>New Delhi too pulled out all stops to woo prestigious American universities like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for Kanpur. Then-MIT president Julius Stratton was informed “of the willingness of the Indian government to meet almost any conditions to persuade [the institution] to take on this task”. However, if the experts and institutional guidance came from MIT and others, IBM provided the machines on which students of IIT Kanpur could learn computer programming. Historian Ross Bassett’s gripping account of the history of IIT Kanpur narrates how the first computer – the IBM 1620 – was ferried on a chartered DC-7 plane to a military base in Kanpur in July 1963. “Within a year of its delivery,” Bassett notes, “IIT Kanpur had fully utilised the 1620,” ordering a new model shortly thereafter. In fairness, both machines – the 1620 and its successor the IBM 7044 – were on the verge of obsolescence by the mid-1960s. But the IBM machines, and sustained American collaboration, helped attract and probably retain some of the finest engineers in India as faculty members at IIT Kanpur.”</em>\r\nThe machines that IBM gifted to IIT Kanpur played a seminal role in the rise of computing in India and did so in ways that no one could have predicted. <em>“IBM no longer offered software support for the computers at IIT Kanpur, which meant the faculty and students not only had to learn coding on their own, but also ‘retrofit’ advanced versions of programming languages into older machines. Dinesh Sharma, in his sweeping history of the outsourcing industry in India, claims this problem of “producing up-to-date software for out-of-date hardware [at IIT-Kanpur] spurred innovation”.</em>\r\n<em>The results of such tinkering were truly fortuitous for India. IIT Kanpur’s computer science department, established later that decade, still enjoys a formidable reputation as one of the best programmes of its kind in the world. V. Rajaraman, who joined IIT Kanpur a couple of months before the IBM 1620 was installed on its premises, wrote his canonical work ‘Principles of Computer Programming’ as primary reading material for students in his class. The book made computer programming mainstream in India, well before the Y2K crisis created the legend of the “Indian techie”. In the late 1970s, when IIT Kanpur decided to set up an undergraduate course in computer science, the demand for enrollments was so high that other IITs “rushed to set [their own CS] departments”.”</em>\r\nAs luck would have had it, just as the IITs were coming of age <em>“the US passed the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 — allowing highly skilled immigrants a straight path to American citizenship. The rest is history.</em>\r\n<em>The IITs became feeder institutions for corporations like IBM, which were only too happy to hire their best minds. Of course, India, weighed by the license raj, struggled to incubate private entrepreneurship and left IIT-ians with few incentives to remain in the country…</em>\r\n<em>While India celebrates Arvind Krishna’s appointment — he identifies himself as an electrical engineer — it is a reminder that the country should do more to let a thousand such innovators bloom at home.”</em>', 'IBM made IIT Kanpur what it is. It just returned the favour with CEO Arvind Krishna', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ibm-made-iit-kanpur-what-it-is-it-just-returned-the-favour-with-ceo-arvind-krishna', '', '', '2020-02-17 04:57:39', '2020-02-17 04:57:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2915', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2877, 1, '2020-02-07 10:31:02', '2020-02-07 10:31:02', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-07 10:31:02', '2020-02-07 10:31:02', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2885, 1, '2020-02-24 04:53:04', '2020-02-24 04:53:04', 'Prior to joining Marcellus, Tej worked at Mayfield, a Silicon Valley headquartered venture capital fund which manages $3Bn globally and $220Mn in India. Tej spent 2 years as a part of Mayfield India’s investment team covering multiple sectors and being at the centre of India’s evolving venture ecosystem. Prior to Mayfield, Tej was a part of the equity and capital markets team of Ambit Capital where he worked on executing IPOs, QIPs and buybacks.\r\n\r\n<strong>Qualifications: </strong>Tej is a Chartered Accountant and has cleared all levels of the CFA exam. He holds a B. Com degree from Ahmedabad University.', 'Tej Shah, CFA', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '669-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:53:04', '2020-02-24 04:53:04', '', 669, 'https://marcellus.in/669-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3060, 1, '2020-03-23 12:00:10', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'vfhmgmhjgmjhgjmhjhjhjhnjnkjnjknjknknknkjhttps://www.oaknorth.co.uk/oaknorth-in-the-news/oaknorth-bank-sees-pre-tax-profits-jump-95-in-2019-to-65-9m-and-becomes-one-of-the-first-banks-globally-to-achieve-net-carbon-zero/feed/', 'Too Busy? Make Time To \'Do Nothing\'', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2020-03-23 12:00:10', '2020-03-23 12:00:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3060', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(2891, 1, '2020-02-09 04:10:38', '2020-02-09 04:10:38', 'Tyler Cowen sheds light on an issue which has puzzled many of us over the past 20 years. Here is the conundrum: in the West, over the past 20 years, a peculiar trend has emerged wherein the brightest graduates aspire to enter Finance, Management Consulting and Law. (India too has seen the onset of this trend over the past decade.) And yet, around the world, <em>“Why are so many people in top positions, whether in the public or private sector, so old?”</em>\r\nPart of the problem seems to be the complex skills now needed to occupy senior roles. <em>“Many tasks have become increasingly complex in America, often more complex than people can learn in just a few years. By the time you have experience enough to perform them, you are less interested in taking risks. In your young adventurous years, by contrast, the only jobs you can get are those that don’t reward (or allow) adventure… there are idiosyncratic, difficult, high-paying and rewarding jobs out there — editor of a major national news organization, for example, or head of a Washington think tank…But school doesn’t necessarily train you for them. Furthermore, you need to know about many aspects of American life to execute them well. The more complicated America’s society and economy become, the more it will be necessary to select for people who have many diverse kinds of experience, and that makes it harder for the relatively young.”</em>\r\nAs a result of the difficulty of rising to the top in these complex jobs, youngsters tend to choose easier, safer options. <em>“Instead, the smart graduates of America’s top universities will seek relatively thick, liquid job markets, with high upside but also protection on the downside. Management consulting is perfect. If you are intelligent and hard-working, you can signal that quickly, and the entry-level tasks are sufficiently anodyne that few very specific skills are required. These jobs are designed to attract talent, so the consulting companies have an eventual option on promoting the best candidates. The same is true of law and the less quantitative parts of finance.</em>\r\n<em>In the short term, this system seems to work for everyone. If you don’t like those vocations after a few years of trying, you still have elite connections and credentials that you can take somewhere else.”</em>\r\nBut the focus that youngsters put on getting jobs in straightforward professions like consulting, finance and law creates a peculiar dynamic which hurts the economy and hurts the youngsters as well: <em>“It might be better for the country if more of these individuals started businesses, tried their hand at chemistry or materials science, or worked in obscure corners of manufacturing in the Midwest. Of course, rates of failure or stagnation are higher in those areas, while glamour is often lower. Who wants to work on mastering a complex task for 10 or 15 years, with no real guarantee of commercial success?</em>\r\n<em>The integrated nature of America’s predicament now comes into clearer focus. As more and more experience is required for many of America’s top and most influential jobs, fewer and fewer young people qualify. Those same young people move into low-return, high-stability, establishment-oriented activities. At the same time, the elevation of so many senior individuals may erode risk-taking and creativity, as they fail to bring fresh perspectives to their jobs.</em>\r\n<em>The slower rates of growth in scientific progress are part of this picture. Older scientists are more likely to be in charge, but they also make fewer conceptual breakthroughs. Younger scientists are more temperamentally inclined to be revolutionaries, but that is hard when it may take you until your late 20s just to learn the basics of your field. Most areas are too complex for a 23-year-old to make new scientific advances, no matter how brilliant he or she may be.”</em>', 'Old People Have All the Interesting Jobs in America', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'old-people-have-all-the-interesting-jobs-in-america', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:12:41', '2020-02-10 04:12:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2891', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2892, 1, '2020-02-10 04:12:41', '2020-02-10 04:12:41', 'Tyler Cowen sheds light on an issue which has puzzled many of us over the past 20 years. Here is the conundrum: in the West, over the past 20 years, a peculiar trend has emerged wherein the brightest graduates aspire to enter Finance, Management Consulting and Law. (India too has seen the onset of this trend over the past decade.) And yet, around the world, <em>“Why are so many people in top positions, whether in the public or private sector, so old?”</em>\r\nPart of the problem seems to be the complex skills now needed to occupy senior roles. <em>“Many tasks have become increasingly complex in America, often more complex than people can learn in just a few years. By the time you have experience enough to perform them, you are less interested in taking risks. In your young adventurous years, by contrast, the only jobs you can get are those that don’t reward (or allow) adventure… there are idiosyncratic, difficult, high-paying and rewarding jobs out there — editor of a major national news organization, for example, or head of a Washington think tank…But school doesn’t necessarily train you for them. Furthermore, you need to know about many aspects of American life to execute them well. The more complicated America’s society and economy become, the more it will be necessary to select for people who have many diverse kinds of experience, and that makes it harder for the relatively young.”</em>\r\nAs a result of the difficulty of rising to the top in these complex jobs, youngsters tend to choose easier, safer options. <em>“Instead, the smart graduates of America’s top universities will seek relatively thick, liquid job markets, with high upside but also protection on the downside. Management consulting is perfect. If you are intelligent and hard-working, you can signal that quickly, and the entry-level tasks are sufficiently anodyne that few very specific skills are required. These jobs are designed to attract talent, so the consulting companies have an eventual option on promoting the best candidates. The same is true of law and the less quantitative parts of finance.</em>\r\n<em>In the short term, this system seems to work for everyone. If you don’t like those vocations after a few years of trying, you still have elite connections and credentials that you can take somewhere else.”</em>\r\nBut the focus that youngsters put on getting jobs in straightforward professions like consulting, finance and law creates a peculiar dynamic which hurts the economy and hurts the youngsters as well: <em>“It might be better for the country if more of these individuals started businesses, tried their hand at chemistry or materials science, or worked in obscure corners of manufacturing in the Midwest. Of course, rates of failure or stagnation are higher in those areas, while glamour is often lower. Who wants to work on mastering a complex task for 10 or 15 years, with no real guarantee of commercial success?</em>\r\n<em>The integrated nature of America’s predicament now comes into clearer focus. As more and more experience is required for many of America’s top and most influential jobs, fewer and fewer young people qualify. Those same young people move into low-return, high-stability, establishment-oriented activities. At the same time, the elevation of so many senior individuals may erode risk-taking and creativity, as they fail to bring fresh perspectives to their jobs.</em>\r\n<em>The slower rates of growth in scientific progress are part of this picture. Older scientists are more likely to be in charge, but they also make fewer conceptual breakthroughs. Younger scientists are more temperamentally inclined to be revolutionaries, but that is hard when it may take you until your late 20s just to learn the basics of your field. Most areas are too complex for a 23-year-old to make new scientific advances, no matter how brilliant he or she may be.”</em>', 'Old People Have All the Interesting Jobs in America', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2891-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:12:41', '2020-02-10 04:12:41', '', 2891, 'https://marcellus.in/2891-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2893, 1, '2020-02-09 04:13:04', '2020-02-09 04:13:04', 'Ben Carlson comes at the inequality challenge from an asset class ownership point of view. Over the last decade or so much of economic policy making such as quantitative easing has benefited owners of capital i.e, the rich with financial markets having their best decade. And hence contributed to the growing inequality between the have’s and the have not’s. In specific, Ben points to the fact that the American dream of home ownership means most middle class people either save up all their lives to buy a home or take a mortgage on the home only to spend the rest of their lives working to repay, leaving little to be invested in financial assets. Indians too have had a fascination with real estate not just as a home for self dwelling but also an investment avenue. The under-performance of real estate over the past seven years has meant that this is changing at the margin as seen with the significant inflows into financial assets, in particular mutual funds.\r\n<em>“…The top 1% have seen the biggest wealth gains by far since Great Recession began in 2007 but this trend has been in place for decades now. The top 1% continues to increase their stranglehold on wealth in this country while the middle and lower class are losing ground.</em>\r\n<em>One of the biggest differences between the wealthy class and everyone else is their ownership of financial assets. Data from Edward Wolff shows the top 10% in terms of wealth own roughly 84% of the stock market in the United States. And that number is rising, up from 77% in 2001.</em>\r\n<em>The rich own financial assets while the rest of the population has the majority of their net worth tied up in their home. There are a number of reasons why this disparity has made things difficult on the middle class.</em>\r\n<em>The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression because falling home prices impacted so many consumers. And the housing market took much longer to recover from its losses than the stock market.</em>\r\n<em>While the S&amp;P 500 bottomed in the spring of 2009, it wasn\'t until 2012 that real estate hit its nadir. And while housing has recovered nicely since that time, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index didn\'t break even until the end of 2016. It\'s only in the last few years that many long-term homeowners have experienced meaningful gains in their real estate assets.</em>\r\n<em>U.S. household debt is roughly $14 trillion as of the latest reading. Nearly $9.5 trillion of that number comes in the form of mortgages (with the rest made up of auto loans, credit card debt and student loans). That means close to 70% of household debt comes from borrowing to buy a house.</em>\r\n<em>The bottom 50% of households by wealth are in debt to the tune of $5.6 trillion. Only around 50% of all Americans have a direct ownership stake in the stock market. This means the bottom 50% has basically nothing invested in financial assets outside of a primary residence but holds around 40% of the total debt load.</em>\r\n<em>The great myth of the American dream is that buying a home will be the best investment you\'ll ever make. Could that be the case? Certainly for those in the right markets at the right time, especially when you consider the leverage involved in owning a home.</em>\r\n<em>But owning a home is not only a liability that slowly turns into an asset but also a form of consumption. You have to pay property taxes. Maintenance and upkeep are required. Designs can go out of style which could require renovations over time. There are also transaction costs involved with the purchase and sale of a home, along with the interest being paid on the loan.</em>\r\n<em>When you take all of the costs into consideration the investment outlook on a home may not be as great as many have led you to believe. Then there\'s the fact that you can\'t spend your house as it\'s an illiquid asset.”</em>', 'The rich own stocks, the middle class own homes. How betting it all on real estate is a wealth gap problem', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-rich-own-stocks-the-middle-class-own-homes-how-betting-it-all-on-real-estate-is-a-wealth-gap-problem', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:14:21', '2020-02-10 04:14:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2893', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2894, 1, '2020-02-10 04:14:21', '2020-02-10 04:14:21', 'Ben Carlson comes at the inequality challenge from an asset class ownership point of view. Over the last decade or so much of economic policy making such as quantitative easing has benefited owners of capital i.e, the rich with financial markets having their best decade. And hence contributed to the growing inequality between the have’s and the have not’s. In specific, Ben points to the fact that the American dream of home ownership means most middle class people either save up all their lives to buy a home or take a mortgage on the home only to spend the rest of their lives working to repay, leaving little to be invested in financial assets. Indians too have had a fascination with real estate not just as a home for self dwelling but also an investment avenue. The under-performance of real estate over the past seven years has meant that this is changing at the margin as seen with the significant inflows into financial assets, in particular mutual funds.\r\n<em>“…The top 1% have seen the biggest wealth gains by far since Great Recession began in 2007 but this trend has been in place for decades now. The top 1% continues to increase their stranglehold on wealth in this country while the middle and lower class are losing ground.</em>\r\n<em>One of the biggest differences between the wealthy class and everyone else is their ownership of financial assets. Data from Edward Wolff shows the top 10% in terms of wealth own roughly 84% of the stock market in the United States. And that number is rising, up from 77% in 2001.</em>\r\n<em>The rich own financial assets while the rest of the population has the majority of their net worth tied up in their home. There are a number of reasons why this disparity has made things difficult on the middle class.</em>\r\n<em>The Great Recession was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression because falling home prices impacted so many consumers. And the housing market took much longer to recover from its losses than the stock market.</em>\r\n<em>While the S&amp;P 500 bottomed in the spring of 2009, it wasn\'t until 2012 that real estate hit its nadir. And while housing has recovered nicely since that time, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index didn\'t break even until the end of 2016. It\'s only in the last few years that many long-term homeowners have experienced meaningful gains in their real estate assets.</em>\r\n<em>U.S. household debt is roughly $14 trillion as of the latest reading. Nearly $9.5 trillion of that number comes in the form of mortgages (with the rest made up of auto loans, credit card debt and student loans). That means close to 70% of household debt comes from borrowing to buy a house.</em>\r\n<em>The bottom 50% of households by wealth are in debt to the tune of $5.6 trillion. Only around 50% of all Americans have a direct ownership stake in the stock market. This means the bottom 50% has basically nothing invested in financial assets outside of a primary residence but holds around 40% of the total debt load.</em>\r\n<em>The great myth of the American dream is that buying a home will be the best investment you\'ll ever make. Could that be the case? Certainly for those in the right markets at the right time, especially when you consider the leverage involved in owning a home.</em>\r\n<em>But owning a home is not only a liability that slowly turns into an asset but also a form of consumption. You have to pay property taxes. Maintenance and upkeep are required. Designs can go out of style which could require renovations over time. There are also transaction costs involved with the purchase and sale of a home, along with the interest being paid on the loan.</em>\r\n<em>When you take all of the costs into consideration the investment outlook on a home may not be as great as many have led you to believe. Then there\'s the fact that you can\'t spend your house as it\'s an illiquid asset.”</em>', 'The rich own stocks, the middle class own homes. How betting it all on real estate is a wealth gap problem', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2893-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:14:21', '2020-02-10 04:14:21', '', 2893, 'https://marcellus.in/2893-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2895, 1, '2020-02-09 04:14:32', '2020-02-09 04:14:32', 'A week before Ben Carlson’s piece, this article came up in the Curbed coming at the income disparity challenge from a related yet diagonal perspective – also involving real estate. The article talks about a recent study which shows an increasing trend of relatively higher income people shunning home ownership and instead renting homes, almost as an answer to the home ownership problem highlighted in the previous place. Whether that or the general trend of the younger generation’s preference for the gig economy, this is posing another challenge for the lower income category. With rental demand consequently rising, rental costs for housing are hurting the low-income populace – in more ways than one. For a much younger population such as India, this move towards renting over ownership of homes could be even more pronounced and could have meaningful ramifications on the housing industry, both on the quantum and type of demand for housing.\r\n<em>“It’s a perfect storm for raising rental costs: low vacancy rates not seen in decades, an influx of high-income renters, constraints on building new apartments and homes, and the disappearance of low-cost rental units. A new report today from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies on the nation’s rental markets suggests the ongoing affordable housing crisis has evolved, with a growing number of well-to-do renters increasingly putting a strain on low-income, and increasingly middle-income, renters.</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps the most significant change in the nation’s rental landscape is the shift in just who is renting today. The rental market has welcomed increasing numbers of high-income renters, with the percentage of renter households making $75,000 or more in 2019 hitting 22 percent, the highest level on record.</em>\r\n<em>That’s indicative of a huge change in the makeup of U.S. renters. The number of high-income renter households rose by 45 percent between 2010 and 2018, while the share of low-income renter households, defined as those making under $30,000, declined by a little more than 5 percent—a reduction of nearly one million households.</em>\r\n<em>… As the number of wealthier renters has increased, those renters have also become more wealthy. The Harvard study notes that, according to the latest Current Population Survey, the average real income of the top fifth of renters rose 40 percent over the past 30 years. At the same time the bottom fifth saw their income shrink 6 percent. It’s a growing gap underscoring the nation’s increasing income disparity: Three decades ago, that top fifth of renters made 12 times more than the bottom fifth; today, it’s 18 times as much.</em>\r\n<em>…. Combine all these factors—more competition from high-income renters, a market designed around meeting their needs, and increasing costs associated with rental construction—and it’s no surprise the nation’s lower-income renters face more and more stress and economic strain.</em>\r\n<em>As more expensive housing options get built across the country, the stock of affordable units continues to disappear. From 2000 to 2017, the percentage of rental units nationwide that cost $600 a month or less (in 2017 dollars) fell from 37.5 percent to 25 percent. That helps explain, the report notes, why there are now only 37 available affordable units for every 100 extremely low-income households—those who make 30 percent or less of the area median income—per the National Low-Income Housing Coalition.</em>\r\n<em>The number of cost-burdened renters—those paying 30 percent or more of their income on rent—inched upward. In 2018, there were 6 million more cost-burdened renters in the U.S. than there were in 2001. While the rent-burdened population decreased slightly each year between 2015 and 2017, 2018 saw an increase of 261,000 households.</em>\r\n<em>That means 20.8 million Americans are rent-burdened, with nearly half of them, 10.9 million, qualifying as severely rent-burdened, defined as paying half their income for housing. In 46 states, more than two in five renters are considered rent-burdened.</em>\r\n<em>The report’s authors also found middle-income renters feeling more pressure. For households making $30,000 to $44,999 a year, the share of cost-burdened renters went up 5.4 percentage points, and those making $45,000 to $74,999 saw a 4.3 percentage-point increase. Harvard researchers found that the growth in these middle-income renters feeling cost burdens was most apparent in bigger, more expensive metro areas. “It is increasingly difficult for households with modest incomes to find housing that is within their means,” they concluded.”</em>', 'U.S. renters are richer, older, and have larger households', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'u-s-renters-are-richer-older-and-have-larger-households', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:15:47', '2020-02-10 04:15:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2895', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2896, 1, '2020-02-10 04:15:47', '2020-02-10 04:15:47', 'A week before Ben Carlson’s piece, this article came up in the Curbed coming at the income disparity challenge from a related yet diagonal perspective – also involving real estate. The article talks about a recent study which shows an increasing trend of relatively higher income people shunning home ownership and instead renting homes, almost as an answer to the home ownership problem highlighted in the previous place. Whether that or the general trend of the younger generation’s preference for the gig economy, this is posing another challenge for the lower income category. With rental demand consequently rising, rental costs for housing are hurting the low-income populace – in more ways than one. For a much younger population such as India, this move towards renting over ownership of homes could be even more pronounced and could have meaningful ramifications on the housing industry, both on the quantum and type of demand for housing.\r\n<em>“It’s a perfect storm for raising rental costs: low vacancy rates not seen in decades, an influx of high-income renters, constraints on building new apartments and homes, and the disappearance of low-cost rental units. A new report today from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies on the nation’s rental markets suggests the ongoing affordable housing crisis has evolved, with a growing number of well-to-do renters increasingly putting a strain on low-income, and increasingly middle-income, renters.</em>\r\n<em>Perhaps the most significant change in the nation’s rental landscape is the shift in just who is renting today. The rental market has welcomed increasing numbers of high-income renters, with the percentage of renter households making $75,000 or more in 2019 hitting 22 percent, the highest level on record.</em>\r\n<em>That’s indicative of a huge change in the makeup of U.S. renters. The number of high-income renter households rose by 45 percent between 2010 and 2018, while the share of low-income renter households, defined as those making under $30,000, declined by a little more than 5 percent—a reduction of nearly one million households.</em>\r\n<em>… As the number of wealthier renters has increased, those renters have also become more wealthy. The Harvard study notes that, according to the latest Current Population Survey, the average real income of the top fifth of renters rose 40 percent over the past 30 years. At the same time the bottom fifth saw their income shrink 6 percent. It’s a growing gap underscoring the nation’s increasing income disparity: Three decades ago, that top fifth of renters made 12 times more than the bottom fifth; today, it’s 18 times as much.</em>\r\n<em>…. Combine all these factors—more competition from high-income renters, a market designed around meeting their needs, and increasing costs associated with rental construction—and it’s no surprise the nation’s lower-income renters face more and more stress and economic strain.</em>\r\n<em>As more expensive housing options get built across the country, the stock of affordable units continues to disappear. From 2000 to 2017, the percentage of rental units nationwide that cost $600 a month or less (in 2017 dollars) fell from 37.5 percent to 25 percent. That helps explain, the report notes, why there are now only 37 available affordable units for every 100 extremely low-income households—those who make 30 percent or less of the area median income—per the National Low-Income Housing Coalition.</em>\r\n<em>The number of cost-burdened renters—those paying 30 percent or more of their income on rent—inched upward. In 2018, there were 6 million more cost-burdened renters in the U.S. than there were in 2001. While the rent-burdened population decreased slightly each year between 2015 and 2017, 2018 saw an increase of 261,000 households.</em>\r\n<em>That means 20.8 million Americans are rent-burdened, with nearly half of them, 10.9 million, qualifying as severely rent-burdened, defined as paying half their income for housing. In 46 states, more than two in five renters are considered rent-burdened.</em>\r\n<em>The report’s authors also found middle-income renters feeling more pressure. For households making $30,000 to $44,999 a year, the share of cost-burdened renters went up 5.4 percentage points, and those making $45,000 to $74,999 saw a 4.3 percentage-point increase. Harvard researchers found that the growth in these middle-income renters feeling cost burdens was most apparent in bigger, more expensive metro areas. “It is increasingly difficult for households with modest incomes to find housing that is within their means,” they concluded.”</em>', 'U.S. renters are richer, older, and have larger households', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2895-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:15:47', '2020-02-10 04:15:47', '', 2895, 'https://marcellus.in/2895-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2897, 1, '2020-02-09 04:22:22', '2020-02-09 04:22:22', 'At Marcellus, whilst we look for companies with institutionalised culture, systems and processes thereby reducing the reliance on a few key individuals, we do acknowledge the contribution of iconic CEOs towards building such an institution. Indeed, CEOs who have served longer tenures have had a lasting impact on their businesses. However, the rapidly changing technological environment combined with natural human tendencies of complacency creeping in mean that sometimes a churn at the top can also be healthy for the long term sustainability of the firm. Indeed, a recent study featured in the Harvard Business Review shows that 10-15 years is a sweet spot of a tenure for a successful CEO stint.\r\n<em>“New research from Spencer Stuart suggests that when top executives stay for more than a decade, they often deliver some of their best years of performance. The executive-search firm analyzed the annual financial results of about 750 S&amp;P 500 CEOs during their tenures and interviewed dozens of leaders in a report published in Harvard Business Review late last year. It showed that CEOs had some of their best value-creating periods in years 11 to 15 on the job.</em>\r\n<em>In these “golden years” of CEO tenure, as the report describes them, executives benefit from strong institutional knowledge and the experience of guiding a company through multiple crises. “In many cases, longer is in fact better,” said Mr. Citrin, a lead author of the report, who has presented its findings to many corporate board members.</em>\r\n<em>How long a corporate chief lasts in the corner office can depend on multiple factors, including the CEO’s financial stake in a company. Founders may be able to lead a company for extended periods due to large ownership positions or special voting powers that cement their position. Such powers are common among some of today’s best-known technology companies. Facebook Inc., Snap Inc. and Lyft Inc. all have supervoting structures.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>Often, results matter above all else, corporate-governance experts said. “If you don’t have outstanding performance, you don’t survive, period,” said Bill George, who was CEO of medical-device company Medtronic PLC for 10 years and is currently a senior fellow at Harvard Business School. “No one is irreplaceable.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. George said he considers a decade to be the magic period for a CEO: long enough to make transformative change at a company without risking complacency. After such a period, he said a company benefits from a leader who can bring a new perspective. “High-tech, fast-moving companies in this day and age need a new CEO every 10 years,” he said, adding that many founders overstay their usefulness.”</em>', 'New Thinking Emerges on Optimal Tenure for a CEO', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'u-s-renters-are-richer-older-and-have-larger-households-2', '', '', '2020-02-10 08:45:41', '2020-02-10 08:45:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2897', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2898, 1, '2020-02-10 04:24:21', '2020-02-10 04:24:21', 'At Marcellus, whilst we look for companies with institutionalised culture, systems and processes thereby reducing the reliance on a few key individuals, we do acknowledge the contribution of iconic CEOs towards building such an institution. Indeed, CEOs who have served longer tenures have had a lasting impact on their businesses. However, the rapidly changing technological environment combined with natural human tendencies of complacency creeping in mean that sometimes a churn at the top can also be healthy for the long term sustainability of the firm. Indeed, a recent study featured in the Harvard Business Review shows that 10-15 years is a sweet spot of a tenure for a successful CEO stint.\r\n<em>“New research from Spencer Stuart suggests that when top executives stay for more than a decade, they often deliver some of their best years of performance. The executive-search firm analyzed the annual financial results of about 750 S&amp;P 500 CEOs during their tenures and interviewed dozens of leaders in a report published in Harvard Business Review late last year. It showed that CEOs had some of their best value-creating periods in years 11 to 15 on the job.</em>\r\n<em>In these “golden years” of CEO tenure, as the report describes them, executives benefit from strong institutional knowledge and the experience of guiding a company through multiple crises. “In many cases, longer is in fact better,” said Mr. Citrin, a lead author of the report, who has presented its findings to many corporate board members.</em>\r\n<em>How long a corporate chief lasts in the corner office can depend on multiple factors, including the CEO’s financial stake in a company. Founders may be able to lead a company for extended periods due to large ownership positions or special voting powers that cement their position. Such powers are common among some of today’s best-known technology companies. Facebook Inc., Snap Inc. and Lyft Inc. all have supervoting structures.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>Often, results matter above all else, corporate-governance experts said. “If you don’t have outstanding performance, you don’t survive, period,” said Bill George, who was CEO of medical-device company Medtronic PLC for 10 years and is currently a senior fellow at Harvard Business School. “No one is irreplaceable.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. George said he considers a decade to be the magic period for a CEO: long enough to make transformative change at a company without risking complacency. After such a period, he said a company benefits from a leader who can bring a new perspective. “High-tech, fast-moving companies in this day and age need a new CEO every 10 years,” he said, adding that many founders overstay their usefulness.”</em>', 'U.S. renters are richer, older, and have larger households', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2897-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:24:21', '2020-02-10 04:24:21', '', 2897, 'https://marcellus.in/2897-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2899, 1, '2020-02-09 04:24:28', '2020-02-09 04:24:28', 'Whilst user generated content or social media has had its benefits on access to information as well as quality and diversity in perspectives, it has its downsides too. In particular, the growing malaise of fake news or unqualified content, whether deliberately planted by vested interests or otherwise. And the ease of forwarding a whatsapp message or retweeting makes it easy for such false content to go viral. A new study suggests a means to curb such misinformation, primarily user driven corrections.\r\n<em>\"Sumitra Badrinathan from the University of Pennsylvania, Simon Chauchard from Leiden University, and DJ Flynn from IE University recently conducted a study titled “I Don’t Think That’s True, Bro!” An Experiment on Fact-checking WhatsApp Rumors in India, where they investigated the role of users in fact-checking misinformation and disinformation on WhatsApp.\r\nThe study revealed that corrections to potentially misleading information on WhatsApp threads can minimise belief in the content of such messages, even when such corrections are low on sophistication, i.e. without a source, and the identity of the user is unknown.</em>\r\n<em>The researchers recommended that WhatsApp create a “button” to easily express their doubts over claims made in the app, which would minimse the efforts required by users to report a message and would thus, effectively slow down the dissemination of such messages.</em>\r\n<em>“Our findings suggest that though user-driven corrections work, merely signaling a doubt about a claim (regardless of how detailed this signal is) may go a long way in reducing misinformation,” Badrinathan said in a tweet.</em>\r\n<em>The study was conducted by recruiting over 5,000 Hindi speakers through Facebook, who were exposed to nine different WhatsApp threads. These threads – screenshot of a WhatsApp conversation – included a claim made by an unknown users using pro-ruling party and anti-ruling party sources, which was followed by a response by another user. The response was varied from a simple “thank you” – control condition with no correction – to expressing simple disbelief, to fact checking the claim using a source.</em>\r\n<em>The subject of the claim in the nine threads were varied from politics to health to sports, while the fact-checks by the respondent in the thread used one of these five sources: AltNews, VishwasNews, Times of India, Facebook and WhatsApp.</em>\r\n<em>Existing literature on people’s response to fact-checking initiatives in countries like the United States have found that motivated reasoning and partisanship are highly influential factors that contribute to the acceptance of a fact-check.</em>\r\n<em>However, in the context of WhatsApp users in India, the study found that motivated reasoning and partisanship had less of a role to play for users in their interaction with the claim and the fact-check.</em>\r\n<em>It also found that the sophistication of the message, cited with fact-checks by media organisations, had little to do with people believing in the fact-check by the responding user. Rather, an expression of doubt or a counter argument by a peer in a WhatsApp group was enough to lower the belief in the initial claim.”</em>', 'A matter of fact: New study shows how Indians respond to (mis)information on WhatsApp', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-matter-of-fact-new-study-shows-how-indians-respond-to-misinformation-on-whatsapp', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:26:52', '2020-02-10 04:26:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2899', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2900, 1, '2020-02-10 04:25:58', '2020-02-10 04:25:58', 'Whilst user generated content or social media has had its benefits on access to information as well as quality and diversity in perspectives, it has its downsides too. In particular, the growing malaise of fake news or unqualified content, whether deliberately planted by vested interests or otherwise. And the ease of forwarding a whatsapp message or retweeting makes it easy for such false content to go viral. A new study suggests a means to curb such misinformation, primarily user driven corrections.\r\n<em>\"Sumitra Badrinathan from the University of Pennsylvania, Simon Chauchard from Leiden University, and DJ Flynn from IE University recently conducted a study titled “I Don’t Think That’s True, Bro!” An Experiment on Fact-checking WhatsApp Rumors in India, where they investigated the role of users in fact-checking misinformation and disinformation on WhatsApp.\r\nThe study revealed that corrections to potentially misleading information on WhatsApp threads can minimise belief in the content of such messages, even when such corrections are low on sophistication, i.e. without a source, and the identity of the user is unknown.</em>\r\n<em>The researchers recommended that WhatsApp create a “button” to easily express their doubts over claims made in the app, which would minimse the efforts required by users to report a message and would thus, effectively slow down the dissemination of such messages.</em>\r\n<em>“Our findings suggest that though user-driven corrections work, merely signaling a doubt about a claim (regardless of how detailed this signal is) may go a long way in reducing misinformation,” Badrinathan said in a tweet.</em>\r\n<em>The study was conducted by recruiting over 5,000 Hindi speakers through Facebook, who were exposed to nine different WhatsApp threads. These threads – screenshot of a WhatsApp conversation – included a claim made by an unknown users using pro-ruling party and anti-ruling party sources, which was followed by a response by another user. The response was varied from a simple “thank you” – control condition with no correction – to expressing simple disbelief, to fact checking the claim using a source.</em>\r\n<em>The subject of the claim in the nine threads were varied from politics to health to sports, while the fact-checks by the respondent in the thread used one of these five sources: AltNews, VishwasNews, Times of India, Facebook and WhatsApp.</em>\r\n<em>Existing literature on people’s response to fact-checking initiatives in countries like the United States have found that motivated reasoning and partisanship are highly influential factors that contribute to the acceptance of a fact-check.</em>\r\n<em>However, in the context of WhatsApp users in India, the study found that motivated reasoning and partisanship had less of a role to play for users in their interaction with the claim and the fact-check.</em>\r\n<em>It also found that the sophistication of the message, cited with fact-checks by media organisations, had little to do with people believing in the fact-check by the responding user. Rather, an expression of doubt or a counter argument by a peer in a WhatsApp group was enough to lower the belief in the initial claim.”</em>', 'A matter of fact: New study shows how Indians respond to (mis)information on WhatsApp', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2899-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:25:58', '2020-02-10 04:25:58', '', 2899, 'https://marcellus.in/2899-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2901, 1, '2020-02-10 04:26:55', '2020-02-10 04:26:55', 'Whilst user generated content or social media has had its benefits on access to information as well as quality and diversity in perspectives, it has its downsides too. In particular, the growing malaise of fake news or unqualified content, whether deliberately planted by vested interests or otherwise. And the ease of forwarding a whatsapp message or retweeting makes it easy for such false content to go viral. A new study suggests a means to curb such misinformation, primarily user driven corrections.\n<em>\"Sumitra Badrinathan from the University of Pennsylvania, Simon Chauchard from Leiden University, and DJ Flynn from IE University recently conducted a study titled “I Don’t Think That’s True, Bro!” An Experiment on Fact-checking WhatsApp Rumors in India, where they investigated the role of users in fact-checking misinformation and disinformation on WhatsApp.\nThe study revealed that corrections to potentially misleading information on WhatsApp threads can minimise belief in the content of such messages, even when such corrections are low on sophistication, i.e. without a source, and the identity of the user is unknown.</em>\n<em>The researchers recommended that WhatsApp create a “button” to easily express their doubts over claims made in the app, which would minimse the efforts required by users to report a message and would thus, effectively slow down the dissemination of such messages.</em>\n<em>“Our findings suggest that though user-driven corrections work, merely signaling a doubt about a claim (regardless of how detailed this signal is) may go a long way in reducing misinformation,” Badrinathan said in a tweet.</em>\n<em>The study was conducted by recruiting over 5,000 Hindi speakers through Facebook, who were exposed to nine different WhatsApp threads. These threads – screenshot of a WhatsApp conversation – included a claim made by an unknown users using pro-ruling party and anti-ruling party sources, which was followed by a response by another user. The response was varied from a simple “thank you” – control condition with no correction – to expressing simple disbelief, to fact checking the claim using a source.</em>\n<em>The subject of the claim in the nine threads were varied from politics to health to sports, while the fact-checks by the respondent in the thread used one of these five sources: AltNews, VishwasNews, Times of India, Facebook and WhatsApp.</em>\n<em>Existing literature on people’s response to fact-checking initiatives in countries like the United States have found that motivated reasoning and partisanship are highly influential factors that contribute to the acceptance of a fact-check.</em>\n<em>However, in the context of WhatsApp users in India, the study found that motivated reasoning and partisanship had less of a role to play for users in their interaction with the claim and the fact-check.</em>\n<em>It also found that the sophistication of the message, cited with fact-checks by media organisations, had little to do with people believing in the fact-check by the responding user. Rather, an expression of doubt or a counter argument by a peer in a WhatsApp group was enough to lower the belief in the initial claim.”</em>', 'A matter of fact: New study shows how Indians respond to (mis)information on WhatsApp', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2899-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:26:55', '2020-02-10 04:26:55', '', 2899, 'https://marcellus.in/2899-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2902, 1, '2020-02-09 04:26:58', '2020-02-09 04:26:58', 'It is the Oscars night. Hence, it is topical to feature a piece on a movie that is a front runner for winning the best picture award – Sam Mendes’  World War I movie, <em>1917</em>. The movie has rightly received accolades for bringing out the dark brutality of war with intensity and impact. However, this piece is on a technical aspect of movie making which in some way enhances the movie watching experience of the viewer – the fact that the movie is made to look  as though it is a single continuous shot. This aspect makes the author of this piece, James Grebey to liken it to a video game. And as the author himself acknowledges that the comparison is meant more as a complement than a criticism.\r\n<em>“Sam Mendes’s new World War I epic 1917 (out tomorrow) uses impressively long takes and some clever editing to give the illusion of being one continuous shot; it puts viewers in the trenches with our two British soldier protagonists on a desperate mission to call off a doomed attack. At times, it feels like we\'re watching a video game unfold onscreen. We follow the soldiers as the stealthily sneak through no-man’s land, hoping to avoid being shot by Germans who might not even be there; we flee with them as they try to escape a collapsing bunker, Tomb Raider-style; and we run with them as they avoid enemies in a frantic escape through the maze-like remnants of a bombed town, a somewhat odd mixture of Call of Duty and Pac-Man. Each extended set-piece feels like a level, free to adopt a totally new genre. In several instances, our heroes descend from the light of day into dark bunkers where superiors give them new missions. As the light adjusts, the screen fills with blackness that hides the cut between two takes; you’d be forgiven for expecting a spinning wheel and the word “LOADING…” to pop up in the corner of the frame.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>Sometimes, the gaming approach to filming hinders the action. A Pac-Man-esque escape sequence from a ruined city feels too high-octane, like it’s from a much more fun sort of game than the bulk of the movie that preceded it. It’s a shame, but largely forgivable, since 1917’s quieter, more suspenseful beats draw on a different genre—like a Silent Hill-style horror set in no-man’s land—while training the camera on our leads to really heighten our connection to the dangers they’re facing.</em>\r\n<em>You could easily clock 1917\'s faux “one-take” as gimmicky, and it definitely feels like that sometimes. But it’s also incredibly impressive, and Mendes deserves the accolades and nominations he’s sure to get. Ultimately, 1917 succeeds and clicks because Mendes imbues an old-world narrative with the essential spirit of a very new, modern form of entertainment. We’re used to a camera closely trailing characters onscreen, because with a controller in our hands, that\'s us. That familiarity, not just with the aesthetic but also with the brave, frightened boys on the screen, thrusts us into a century-old war. In a way, 1917\'s ultimate achievement here is how grippingly clear Mendes makes it that, no matter the filming technique, there\'s no question about it: these soldiers don\'t have any extra lives.”</em>', '1917 Is a Video Game Come to Life', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', '1917-is-a-video-game-come-to-life', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:28:23', '2020-02-10 04:28:23', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2902', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2903, 1, '2020-02-10 04:28:23', '2020-02-10 04:28:23', 'It is the Oscars night. Hence, it is topical to feature a piece on a movie that is a front runner for winning the best picture award – Sam Mendes’  World War I movie, <em>1917</em>. The movie has rightly received accolades for bringing out the dark brutality of war with intensity and impact. However, this piece is on a technical aspect of movie making which in some way enhances the movie watching experience of the viewer – the fact that the movie is made to look  as though it is a single continuous shot. This aspect makes the author of this piece, James Grebey to liken it to a video game. And as the author himself acknowledges that the comparison is meant more as a complement than a criticism.\r\n<em>“Sam Mendes’s new World War I epic 1917 (out tomorrow) uses impressively long takes and some clever editing to give the illusion of being one continuous shot; it puts viewers in the trenches with our two British soldier protagonists on a desperate mission to call off a doomed attack. At times, it feels like we\'re watching a video game unfold onscreen. We follow the soldiers as the stealthily sneak through no-man’s land, hoping to avoid being shot by Germans who might not even be there; we flee with them as they try to escape a collapsing bunker, Tomb Raider-style; and we run with them as they avoid enemies in a frantic escape through the maze-like remnants of a bombed town, a somewhat odd mixture of Call of Duty and Pac-Man. Each extended set-piece feels like a level, free to adopt a totally new genre. In several instances, our heroes descend from the light of day into dark bunkers where superiors give them new missions. As the light adjusts, the screen fills with blackness that hides the cut between two takes; you’d be forgiven for expecting a spinning wheel and the word “LOADING…” to pop up in the corner of the frame.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>Sometimes, the gaming approach to filming hinders the action. A Pac-Man-esque escape sequence from a ruined city feels too high-octane, like it’s from a much more fun sort of game than the bulk of the movie that preceded it. It’s a shame, but largely forgivable, since 1917’s quieter, more suspenseful beats draw on a different genre—like a Silent Hill-style horror set in no-man’s land—while training the camera on our leads to really heighten our connection to the dangers they’re facing.</em>\r\n<em>You could easily clock 1917\'s faux “one-take” as gimmicky, and it definitely feels like that sometimes. But it’s also incredibly impressive, and Mendes deserves the accolades and nominations he’s sure to get. Ultimately, 1917 succeeds and clicks because Mendes imbues an old-world narrative with the essential spirit of a very new, modern form of entertainment. We’re used to a camera closely trailing characters onscreen, because with a controller in our hands, that\'s us. That familiarity, not just with the aesthetic but also with the brave, frightened boys on the screen, thrusts us into a century-old war. In a way, 1917\'s ultimate achievement here is how grippingly clear Mendes makes it that, no matter the filming technique, there\'s no question about it: these soldiers don\'t have any extra lives.”</em>', '1917 Is a Video Game Come to Life', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2902-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 04:28:23', '2020-02-10 04:28:23', '', 2902, 'https://marcellus.in/2902-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2904, 1, '2020-02-10 08:45:41', '2020-02-10 08:45:41', 'At Marcellus, whilst we look for companies with institutionalised culture, systems and processes thereby reducing the reliance on a few key individuals, we do acknowledge the contribution of iconic CEOs towards building such an institution. Indeed, CEOs who have served longer tenures have had a lasting impact on their businesses. However, the rapidly changing technological environment combined with natural human tendencies of complacency creeping in mean that sometimes a churn at the top can also be healthy for the long term sustainability of the firm. Indeed, a recent study featured in the Harvard Business Review shows that 10-15 years is a sweet spot of a tenure for a successful CEO stint.\r\n<em>“New research from Spencer Stuart suggests that when top executives stay for more than a decade, they often deliver some of their best years of performance. The executive-search firm analyzed the annual financial results of about 750 S&amp;P 500 CEOs during their tenures and interviewed dozens of leaders in a report published in Harvard Business Review late last year. It showed that CEOs had some of their best value-creating periods in years 11 to 15 on the job.</em>\r\n<em>In these “golden years” of CEO tenure, as the report describes them, executives benefit from strong institutional knowledge and the experience of guiding a company through multiple crises. “In many cases, longer is in fact better,” said Mr. Citrin, a lead author of the report, who has presented its findings to many corporate board members.</em>\r\n<em>How long a corporate chief lasts in the corner office can depend on multiple factors, including the CEO’s financial stake in a company. Founders may be able to lead a company for extended periods due to large ownership positions or special voting powers that cement their position. Such powers are common among some of today’s best-known technology companies. Facebook Inc., Snap Inc. and Lyft Inc. all have supervoting structures.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>Often, results matter above all else, corporate-governance experts said. “If you don’t have outstanding performance, you don’t survive, period,” said Bill George, who was CEO of medical-device company Medtronic PLC for 10 years and is currently a senior fellow at Harvard Business School. “No one is irreplaceable.”</em>\r\n<em>Mr. George said he considers a decade to be the magic period for a CEO: long enough to make transformative change at a company without risking complacency. After such a period, he said a company benefits from a leader who can bring a new perspective. “High-tech, fast-moving companies in this day and age need a new CEO every 10 years,” he said, adding that many founders overstay their usefulness.”</em>', 'New Thinking Emerges on Optimal Tenure for a CEO', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2897-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-10 08:45:41', '2020-02-10 08:45:41', '', 2897, 'https://marcellus.in/2897-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2905, 1, '2020-02-10 11:14:00', '2020-02-10 11:14:00', '<strong>After falling by about 39% from its January 2018 peak to its August 2019 trough, the BSE Smallcap index has since returned 22%. This rebound has been fairly broad-based with &gt;70% of the BSE Smallcap stocks giving positive returns. However, this rally does <u>not</u> seem to be backed by any meaningful improvement in the underlying macros and corporate earnings (as seen in muted 3QFY20 quarterly results so far). History shows that earnings growth and RoCE remain the key drivers of long-term share price performance. Against this backdrop, we stick to the time-tested formula of identifying and investing in a portfolio of small-cap companies with high earnings growth and RoCEs alongside clean corporate governance rather than focusing on superficially cheap but low-quality small-cap stocks. The key objective of our small cap “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with stellar track records of capital allocation, clean accounts and high growth potential</strong>.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 28, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2906 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"810\" height=\"419\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Earnings Growth and Return on Capital have been sustainable drivers of share price returns…</strong>\r\nThe last 10 years clearly indicate that the best performing small cap stocks have been those which have generated the highest earnings growth as well as the highest return on capital employed (ROCE). For instance, as shown in the charts below, for both the time periods FY09-14 and FY14-19, the companies which delivered the highest PBT growth also ended up delivering the highest share price returns. Interestingly for both these time periods, companies which scored the highest PBT growth (represented by bucket Quartile 1 or Q1 in below charts) also turned out to be companies generating the highest RoCE. The positive relationship between PBT growth and RoCE and vice-versa is not surprising given that companies with higher margin (and thereby higher PBT) generate higher RoCE. Similarly, higher RoCE implies higher cash generation, lower interest expenses and higher sustainable revenue growth. Hence, the inter-dependent relationship between the two.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2907 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"824\" height=\"387\" />\r\n\r\nSimilarly, as shown in the charts below, the highest RoCE companies have delivered highest share price returns. Interestingly here too, companies which generated the highest RoCE (represented by Quartile 1 or Q1 in below charts) also turned out to be companies generating the highest PBT CAGRs.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2908 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"389\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>… rather than ‘cheap’ valuations</strong>\r\nOn the other hand, a common misperception amongst the investors is that ‘cheapest’ stocks generate the best returns. In reality, there is hardly any correlation between lower P/E multiples (unless they generate healthy earnings growth and RoCEs) and higher share price return. However, this relationship (lower P/E and higher share price return) may prevail for short periods of irrational exuberance (where factors such as abundant liquidity rather than company fundamentals drive share price performance). For instance, in CY17, lower P/E stocks (combined with lower RoCEs) significantly outperformed the more expensive but quality stocks (represented by higher RoCEs). But such a run does not last long - the same set of low P/E stocks which scored big time in CY17 witnessed the steepest fall in CY18 and CY19 as liquidity dried up and share prices started tracking the underlying fundamentals (growth and return on capital).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2909 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/14.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"826\" height=\"383\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus Little Champs Investment process to navigate the tricky world of small caps</strong>\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be  particularly sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of the accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% p.a.) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimise the impact of trading costs.\r\nWe use the following process to build the Little Champs portfolio:\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2910 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"462\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><em>For more details on Marcellus Little Champs investment process please refer our January 2020 newsletter <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=800e7d07ca&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D800e7d07ca%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581414602053000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG-axL0dXJ6uQitdarZeK6axI8I_A\">(LINK)</a></em></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Little Champs – a portfolio of companies with healthy earnings growth and return on capital</strong>\r\nAs of today, we have a total of 14 stocks in our Little Champs portfolio with equity allocation of close to 90%. While our stock selection is purely bottom-focussed, no single sector constitutes &gt;20% of invested corpus. Backtesting results show that over the last five years in a seemingly tough period for macro-economic environment and corporate earnings, the Little Champs portfolio has, on a weighted basis, delivered a PBT CAGR of 29% over FY14-19. This earnings growth has been combined with a reasonably healthy weighted average RoCE (pretax) of 24% over FY15-19. This has been significantly better than the underlying PBT growth and RoCE for BSE Smallcap as shown in the below charts. In short, almost all of our investee companies would fall under Q1 if were to go by the classification used in the charts shown at the beginning of this note.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2912 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/16-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"361\" />\r\n\r\nWe will go into the details of what drives the healthy performance of Little Champs compared to its small cap counterparts in the subsequent newsletters. The objective of this newsletter is to spell out clearly that we are sticking to the time-tested formula of identifying and investing in a portfolio of small-cap companies with high earnings growth and RoCEs with clean corporate governance rather than cheap but low-quality small-cap stocks. By itself, “cheap” (i.e. low P/E) stocks are not something which are of interest to us.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/resources/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De03fce7012%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581414602053000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFEl4EIyLnlk705zJLlnYDUc9BIyA\">https://marcellus.in/resources/</a>', 'Quality Trumps “Cheap” Valuations Comprehensively', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'quality-trumps-cheap-valuations-comprehensively', '', '', '2020-02-10 11:14:00', '2020-02-10 11:14:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2905', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0);
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(2913, 1, '2020-02-11 04:20:43', '2020-02-11 04:20:43', 'Marcellus (<a href=\"http://www.marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is hiring an <strong>Onboarding and Client Servicing Manager.</strong> The role is combination of handling documentation (KYC, account opening, etc), managing client onboaring and delivering account servicing for our PMS clients. The ideal candidate would have 5+ years of experience in a similar role in PMS or Wealth management services, would be energetic, driven, and obsessed about delivering best in class service experience to clients. She/he would also be process oriented, organised and able to self-manage work in pressure situations whilst working with multiple clients / sales partners in parallel. The candidate would have excellent problem-solving and communication skills (both written and verbal), and would be proficient in Microsoft Office suite including Excel with working knowledge of CRM Platforms (such as Salesforce etc). Candidates with a Bachelors degree <strong>should email CV to <a href=\"mailto:careers@marcellus.in\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 19th June 2020.</strong>', 'Client Servicing Manager', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'client-servicing-executive', '', '', '2020-06-12 05:18:16', '2020-06-12 05:18:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=2913', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
(3521, 1, '2020-06-12 11:52:14', '2020-06-12 11:52:14', '', 'Investing Through a Crisis - A handbook from Marcellus', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'investing-through-a-crisis-a-handbook-from-marcellus', '', '', '2020-06-12 11:52:14', '2020-06-12 11:52:14', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Investing-Through-a-Crisis-A-handbook-from-Marcellus.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3520, 1, '2020-06-12 05:17:31', '2020-06-12 05:17:31', 'Marcellus (<a href=\"http://www.marcellus.in/\">www.marcellus.in</a>) is hiring an <strong>Onboarding and Client Servicing Manager.</strong> The role is combination of handling documentation (KYC, account opening, etc), managing client onboaring and delivering account servicing for our PMS clients. The ideal candidate would have 5+ years of experience in a similar role in PMS or Wealth management services, would be energetic, driven, and obsessed about delivering best in class service experience to clients. She/he would also be process oriented, organised and able to self-manage work in pressure situations whilst working with multiple clients / sales partners in parallel. The candidate would have excellent problem-solving and communication skills (both written and verbal), and would be proficient in Microsoft Office suite including Excel with working knowledge of CRM Platforms (such as Salesforce etc). Candidates with a Bachelors degree should send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:careers@marcellus.in\">careers@marcellus.in</a> latest by 19th June 2020.', 'Client Servicing Manager', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2913-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-12 05:17:31', '2020-06-12 05:17:31', '', 2913, 'https://marcellus.in/2913-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2914, 1, '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>1. </strong><strong>What is the investment philosophy of Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS defines its coverage universe based on a historical track record of consistent and healthy revenue growth and ROCE (returns on capital employed). The number of stocks in the coverage universe is around 30. Within the coverage universe, our research approach includes digging deep into understanding the DNA of these companies which helped them deliver the historical consistency. Based on such understanding of the DNA, we buy 10-15 stocks in our model portfolio of the PMS, where we have a high degree of conviction on the company’s ability to continue delivering healthy earnings CAGR over the next decade or longer, regardless of disruptive and evolutionary changes in the interim.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>2. </strong><strong>What types of companies form part of the portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio is agnostic to parameters like market cap, sectors etc. However, given the nature of the philosophy, most constituents of the Consistent Compounders portfolio are large and liquid stocks of cash generative companies, typically in the consumption and financial services sectors.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>3. </strong><strong>What is the difference between Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders portfolio and the filter-based / robotic portfolio explained in the books Coffee Can Investing and Unusual Billionaires?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe filter-based portfolios described in these books build annual portfolio iterations using preceding decade’s fundamentals and filtering out companies which have delivered double digit revenue growth and returns on capital greater than cost of capital, each year for 10 years in a row. This filter based portfolio once left untouched for a decade, has historically delivered an average CAGR of ~25% with the volatility in this return similar to that of a Government Bond.\r\n\r\nThe Consistent Compounders Portfolio combines our deep-dive stock-specific research with the benefits of the filter-based approach explained earlier, and thereby attempts to outperform vs these filter-based portfolios. This is achieved via 3 factors:\r\n\r\n<strong>Portfolio concentration</strong>: The filters might give a longer list of stock which dilutes the reliance of the portfolio on outstanding companies. We narrow the portfolio down to 12-15 ultra-high quality stocks. So, how do we do that?\r\n\r\n<strong>Ignorable consistency in historical fundamentals</strong>: Eg. Many housing finance companies which form part of the filter-based portfolios, are examples of 10 years of consistent fundamentals delivered due to unsustainable macro tailwinds for the Housing Finance Companies from low cost money market funding and a booming real estate market in the country – neither of which to our mind is sustainable.\r\n\r\n<strong>Excusable blips in historical fundamentals are forgiven</strong>: For example, Nestle’s Maggi episode ensured that revenue growth of Nestle India dropped below 10% in FY15. Similarly, the fall in crude oil prices to below US$30 per barrel caused a 6% product price cut by Asian Paints in FY17 which led to its revenue growth dropping below 10% YoY in FY17. Manual intervention in portfolio construction analyses the nature of these blips and might include such stocks in the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>4. </strong><strong>Most stocks in the Consistent Compounders portfolio are well known names. So, what stops someone from replicating this philosophy on their own?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nTheoretically speaking, it is possible and simple for a client to replicate this philosophy on his own. However, the ‘simple’ aspect of the philosophy is not ‘easy’ because if an investor doesn’t understand why he has bought a company (because he didn’t do the research on the company himself), he won’t have the conviction to do the following with his stock portfolio:\r\n\r\n1.  Allocate high allocations in the portfolio to each of the stocks\r\n\r\n2. Hold onto the portfolio despite the volatility in external environment (general elections, crude prices, currency movements, GDP growth rates etc)\r\n\r\n3. Make timely changes to the portfolio when required – best example was the Gruh Finance exit executed by Consistent Compounders as soon as possible, once its merger with Bandhan Bank was announced\r\n\r\n4. Avoid diluting the benefits from the portfolio on the overall investable surplus by diversifying into too many products and hence stocks in the overall investable surplus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>5. </strong><strong>Doesn’t a 10-15 stock portfolio, exposed to only few sectors, end up concentrating the risk rather than keeping it diversified?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe quality of DNA which helps deliver consistent and healthy fundamentals of our portfolio companies is the biggest source of reduction in volatility of stocks in this portfolio. Our back testing (explained in the book ‘Coffee Can Investing’) suggests that volatility of this portfolio is as low as that of a Government Bond for holding periods longer than 3 years\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>6. </strong><strong>What is the average churn in the portfolio in a year?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHistorically, there has been no more than 5-8% annual churn on average under this philosophy.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>7. </strong><strong>How do you time entry and exit from the portfolio? Do you take cash calls?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nWe do not believe we can time either market movements or share price movements. Moreover, the share prices of the kinds of companies that we hold in our portfolios, have had very low correlation with the broader market movements. The beauty of the Consistent Compounders portfolio is that since the average annual earnings growth of the portfolio is likely to remain healthy regardless of changes in the external environment, short and long term P/E movement is not a significant contributor in helping our clients compound their portfolios at a healthy rate. Please refer to our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 newsletter on this subject.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>8. </strong><strong>It is perceived that small caps grow faster than large caps. Then why has this portfolio delivered 20-25% annualised returns historically despite a large-cap bias?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOn a relative basis, it is true that a champion small cap stock is likely to grow faster than a champion large cap stock. However, on an absolute basis, it is not true that champion large cap stocks grow at less than 15%. In fact firms like HDFC Bank and Asian Paints have demonstrated that no matter how small or how large were these companies, their revenue and earnings growth rates have always remained in the range of 20%-30% CAGR.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>9. </strong><strong>Most stocks in your portfolio are trading at high P/E multiples. Then is it not prudent to either wait for their P/E multiples to fall, or else invest in stocks where P/E multiples are lower?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nMultiples based conventional valuation methodologies like P/E multiples and PEG ratios do not adequately factor in the longevity of a franchise – i.e. the firm’s ability to deliver returns on capital employed higher than the cost of capital for <em>several decades in a row</em>. As a result, if the intrinsic value of a company in the Consistent Compounders PMS portfolio is 100x on a P/E multiple basis, its ‘high P/E multiple’ of 40x-50x continues to be undervalued with a significant margin of safety.\r\n\r\nA mathematical way of explaining this point is that share price movement of a stock over any holding period, is a combination of the movement in its earnings growth and change in the P/E multiple. Over a holding period of 10 years or longer, share prices of all stocks converge towards their earnings growth. Over a holding period of less than 10 years, the stronger the earnings growth of the company, the less significant is the contribution from its P/E multiple in determining its share price.\r\n\r\n‘While earnings of a company compound, P/E multiple of a stock never compounds’. Hence, we focus only on companies which can compound their earnings at a healthy rate, rather than worrying too much about short term fluctuation in their P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>10. </strong><strong>When are you likely to sell a stock in this portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere are two examples of events which can convince us to sell a stock from our holding portfolio:\r\n\r\n<strong>Sudden event which changes the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: The best example of this was Gruh Finance – our first churn in the portfolio since inception. On the evening of 7<sup>th</sup> January 2019, HDFC Ltd announced the sale of Gruh Finance to Bandhan Bank, after which shareholders of Gruh will become shareholders of Bandhan Bank. Whilst we had a high degree of conviction on the quality of Gruh’s franchise, we did not believe the same for Bandhan Bank. Hence, we sold Gruh Finance from our clients’ portfolio as soon as possible on 8<sup>th</sup> January.\r\n\r\n<strong>Gradual change in the fundamental prospects of a business</strong>: This could be due to a change in the management or firm becoming complacent gradually. In such cases, it might take be a few months before our conviction drops to a level where we decide to sell the stock from the portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>11. </strong><strong>Will you ever sell a stock due to its valuations, if your conviction on the quality of its fundamentals has not deteriorated?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nHypothetically, this is possible once the traded valuation of a company is higher than its intrinsic value. However, in the real world, it is rare to see the stock price of a Consistent Compounder adequately factoring in its longevity.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>12. </strong><strong>What is a PMS (Portfolio Management Service)?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nA Portfolio Management Service is a platform created especially for high net-worth individuals to provide customized solutions for their financial investment needs. Investment management solutions in a PMS can be provided in three ways - Discretionary Portfolio, Non-Discretionary Portfolio, Advisory Portfolio.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>13. </strong><strong>What is the difference between a discretionary portfolio manager, nondiscretionary portfolio manager and Advisory Portfolio manager?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe discretionary portfolio manager individually and independently manages the funds of each client in accordance with the needs of the client.\r\n\r\nThe non-discretionary portfolio manager manages the funds in accordance with the directions of the client.\r\n\r\nThe Advisory Portfolio Manager advises the client on investments as agreed upon in the client agreement.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>14. </strong><strong>What will be the tax structure applicable under Marcellus’ PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager is a trustee acting in a fiduciary capacity on behalf of the investor. Therefore, the tax liability for a PMS investor would be the same as that of a direct investor. Marcellus’ PMS invests only in equities. However, the investor should consult a tax advisor for any tax planning related queries. Audited statement of accounts will be provided by Marcellus at the end of the financial year, which would help the investor in assessing his/her tax liabilities.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>15. </strong><strong>Is there any contract between Marcellus and its clients? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. The portfolio manager, before taking up an assignment of management of funds or portfolio of securities on behalf of the client, enters into an agreement in writing with the client, clearly defining the inter se relationship and setting out their mutual rights, liabilities and obligations relating to the management of funds or portfolio of securities, containing the details as specified in Schedule IV of the SEBI (Portfolio Managers) Regulations, 1993.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>16. </strong><strong>What is the setup fees, entry load, exit load and lock-in applicable on my PMS account at Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThere is zero entry load, zero exit load, and zero setup fees. There are no lock-ins applicable either. A client may at any time, at the client’s risk and cost, withdraw any asset from Marcellus’ PMS by giving 30 days’ notice of the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>17. </strong><strong>What fees can a Marcellus portfolio manager charge from its clients for the services rendered by him?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Scheme Particulars/conditions of fees to be charged Periodicity with which fees will be levied\r\n1 Discretionary (Fixed Fees Only) Fixed fee of 2.0% of the Net Asset Value (with NAV calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) Quarterly\r\n2 Discretionary (Fixed &amp; Variable Fees) Fixed fee of 1 % of the Net Asset Value (with NAV Calculated based on average daily NAV over the course of the quarter) plus Variable fee of 15% on all returns in excess 12% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Quarterly for fixed fees and Annually for variable fees\r\n3 Discretionary (variable fees only) Variable fee of 20% on all returns in excess of 8% (no-catch-up) subject to a high watermark Annually\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>18. </strong><strong>What is the Meaning of \"no-catch-up\"?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo catch-up means that profit share will be applicable only on the incremental return over and above the hurdle rate. For example if the value of a portfolio increases from Rs 100 to Rs 120 during a year when the fees structure included a hurdle rate of 8% (i.e. hurdle rate was at Rs 108), then the profit share will be applicable only on Rs (120-108) = Rs 12, rather than it being applicable on the entire Rs 20 profit delivered.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>19. </strong><strong>What is the meaning of ‘high watermark’?</strong></span>\r\n\r\n\'High Water Mark\' is the higher of either \'corpus investment value\' or \'highest NAV at which fees has been paid historically\'.\r\nIllustration of how the High-Water Mark would work: A client\'s initial contribution is Rs 1,00,00,000 which then rises to Rs 1,25,00,000 in its first year. Therefore, a performance fee would be payable on the Rs 25,00,000 return. Next year, the portfolio value drops to Rs 110,00,000. Therefore, no performance fee is payable. In the third year, the portfolio value rises to Rs 1,40,00,000. Performance fee is payable only on the Rs 15,00,000 which is in excess of the previously achieved high watermark of Rs 1,25,00,000.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>20. </strong><strong>Are there any other charges incurred by a client in the PMS, other than the fees structure highlighted above?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nOther applicable charges include: a) one time charge of Rs 1100 for stamp paper charge incurred at the time of account opening; b) annual charge of Rs 2000 + GST as audit fees; c) brokerage charge of 0.132% (inclusive of all taxes) on the value of trades carried out in the account; and d) STT (securities transaction tax) of Rs 0.1% of value of trades carried out in the account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>21. </strong><strong>What is the minimum investment size to open a PMS account with Marcellus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe minimum ticket size applicable at the time of opening a new account, is the same as regulatory minimum of Rs. 50 lakhs.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>22. </strong><strong>Are investors required to open new demat accounts for a PMS services? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. For investment in listed securities, an investor is required to open a new demat account in his/her own name.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>23. </strong><strong>What is a Disclosure Document related to a PMS? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe portfolio manager provides to the client the Disclosure Document at least two days prior to entering into an agreement with the client.\r\nThe Disclosure Document contains the quantum and manner of payment of fees payable by the client for each activity, portfolio risks, complete disclosures in respect of transactions with related parties, the performance of the portfolio manager and the audited financial statements of the portfolio manager for the immediately preceding three years.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>24. </strong><strong>What are the rules governing services of a Portfolio Manager? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe services of a Portfolio Manager are governed by the agreement between the portfolio manager and the investor. The agreement should cover the minimum details as specified in the SEBI Portfolio Manager Regulations. However, additional requirements can be specified by the Portfolio Manager in the agreement with the client.\r\nHence, an investor is advised to read the agreement carefully before signing it.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>25. </strong><strong>What is stock transfer process for Initial/Top up stock corpus?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAfter the demat account opening process has been completed with Marcellus, the client will be provided a copy of the Client Master List (CML) of the new demat account. The client will then have to produce this CML copy and fill up the depository slips at the entity where the client has his old demat account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>26. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock corpus from clients having Joint De mat account in that of PMS account? </strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept the stock corpus.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>27. </strong><strong>Can we accept fund from client ‘s bank account having third/other party involved?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes, we can accept this fund. However, first holder of the PMS account must be one of the joint holders of the bank account from which payment is made.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>28. </strong><strong>Can we accept stock from third party accounts to client’s portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo, we cannot accept the same.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>29. </strong><strong>How can the client access his PMS account statement and other details?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nThe client will receive, via email, a monthly account statement around the 7th day of every month. This monthly statement will include all details related to the portfolio holdings, transaction statement and statements of dividends received and expenses incurred. Also, soon after the PMS account has been activated, the client will receive login credentials to Kotak Mahindra Bank’s netbanking website and mobile app, through which the clients can access all details related to their PMS account updated as of end of previous day.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>30. </strong><strong>Do we reinvest client’s dividend in his portfolio?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nYes. Dividends against securities are credited directly into the client’s PMS account and hence get reinvested into the PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>31. </strong><strong>What is the process to add/delete joint holder in PMS?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNo. Holders cannot be added or deleted in a PMS account after it has already been activated. Clients will need to open a new PMS account with required holding pattern and for this, clients will have to complete the entire documentation required to open a new PMS account.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>32. </strong><strong>Whom has been appointed as the custodian to Marcellus’ PMS accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nKotak Mahindra Bank Limited has been appointed as the custodian.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>33. </strong><strong>What is the process to change the fees schedule?</strong></span>\r\nFees schedule can only be changed on a prospective basis, from the 1st April of a new financial year. No retrospective changes to the fees structure are allowed. Clients are required to intimate their desire to change the fees structure for the forthcoming financial year latest by 31st March of the ongoing financial year.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>34. </strong><strong>What is the procedure to change nominee in PMS account?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nChanging the name of a nominee in the PMS account just requires the client to fill up and sign one form. The client should reach out to his / her relationship manager to get this done.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>35. </strong><strong>What are the charges included in “Expense Report” specified in Portfolio Snapshot Statement?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nManagement Fees (annual), brokerage + STT incurred on trades (as and when trades are carried out), GST, custodian and fund account charges (annual), and one-time stamp paper charges incurred during account opening.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>36. </strong><strong>How is In Person Verification (IPV) carried out in the case of Non Resident Indians?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nIn Case of Non-Resident Indians who are visiting India during their account opening documentation process, IPV will be carried out by employees of Kotak Mahindra Bank at a time and place convenient for the client. However, considering the infeasibility of carrying out IPV of NRIs not visiting India, attestation of KYC documents by Notary public, any court, magistrate, Judge or local banker of the client where client is residing, may be permitted. For NRIs who are either US persons or Canadian persons, IPV has to be done only when they are visiting India.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>37. </strong><strong>Why do resident Indians have to transfer money into a Marcellus Investment Managers’ pooled bank account? Doesn’t this transfer lead to change in ownership of the funds?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nAll resident Indian clients become beneficiary owners in the pooled bank in proportion to the value of funds transferred by them into this account. Marcellus Investment Managers is NOT one of the beneficiary owner of this account. As a result, the pooled bank account will NOT get affected even in the unlikely event of all bank accounts of Marcellus Investment Managers getting locked / sealed by the regulatory bodies. Use of pooled bank account is a structure provided by SEBI to help ease operations and reduce operational costs related to execution of PMS accounts.\r\n\r\n<span style=\"color: blue;\"><strong>38. </strong><strong>What is the difference between the structure of an NRI account and other accounts?</strong></span>\r\n\r\nNRI discretionary PMS accounts include a PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a non-PIS bank account (in the name of the client), a trading account (in the name of the client) and a demat account (in the name of the client).\r\nHowever, for resident Indian discretionary PMS accounts, corporate accounts and HUF accounts, the structure includes only a demat account opened in the name of the client. For the purposes of a bank account, the client becomes one of the beneficiary owners of a pooled bank account which is used for funding, top-ups and other banking requirements.', 'FAQs', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '749-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '2020-02-12 04:02:40', '', 749, 'https://marcellus.in/749-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2916, 1, '2020-02-17 04:57:39', '2020-02-17 04:57:39', 'In a world where those who don’t display bigotry vis a vis foreigners are not seen as real men, The Print has a lovely story on the role of IBM – and the United States more generally – in the creation of IIT Kanpur. And how that elite university has now returned the favour by giving IBM its new CEO.\r\n<em>“The institute in Kanpur, like other IITs, was set up with the help of foreign governments. If the Soviet Union assisted IIT Bombay, West Germany helped build IIT Madras, and the United Kingdom IIT Delhi, the United States provided the technical assistance that helped the Indian government establish IIT Kanpur. Its creation — through a “consortium of nine American engineering institutions” — was among the rare successful outcomes of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s disastrous 1961 visit to the US….</em>\r\n<em>New Delhi too pulled out all stops to woo prestigious American universities like the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for Kanpur. Then-MIT president Julius Stratton was informed “of the willingness of the Indian government to meet almost any conditions to persuade [the institution] to take on this task”. However, if the experts and institutional guidance came from MIT and others, IBM provided the machines on which students of IIT Kanpur could learn computer programming. Historian Ross Bassett’s gripping account of the history of IIT Kanpur narrates how the first computer – the IBM 1620 – was ferried on a chartered DC-7 plane to a military base in Kanpur in July 1963. “Within a year of its delivery,” Bassett notes, “IIT Kanpur had fully utilised the 1620,” ordering a new model shortly thereafter. In fairness, both machines – the 1620 and its successor the IBM 7044 – were on the verge of obsolescence by the mid-1960s. But the IBM machines, and sustained American collaboration, helped attract and probably retain some of the finest engineers in India as faculty members at IIT Kanpur.”</em>\r\nThe machines that IBM gifted to IIT Kanpur played a seminal role in the rise of computing in India and did so in ways that no one could have predicted. <em>“IBM no longer offered software support for the computers at IIT Kanpur, which meant the faculty and students not only had to learn coding on their own, but also ‘retrofit’ advanced versions of programming languages into older machines. Dinesh Sharma, in his sweeping history of the outsourcing industry in India, claims this problem of “producing up-to-date software for out-of-date hardware [at IIT-Kanpur] spurred innovation”.</em>\r\n<em>The results of such tinkering were truly fortuitous for India. IIT Kanpur’s computer science department, established later that decade, still enjoys a formidable reputation as one of the best programmes of its kind in the world. V. Rajaraman, who joined IIT Kanpur a couple of months before the IBM 1620 was installed on its premises, wrote his canonical work ‘Principles of Computer Programming’ as primary reading material for students in his class. The book made computer programming mainstream in India, well before the Y2K crisis created the legend of the “Indian techie”. In the late 1970s, when IIT Kanpur decided to set up an undergraduate course in computer science, the demand for enrollments was so high that other IITs “rushed to set [their own CS] departments”.”</em>\r\nAs luck would have had it, just as the IITs were coming of age <em>“the US passed the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 — allowing highly skilled immigrants a straight path to American citizenship. The rest is history.</em>\r\n<em>The IITs became feeder institutions for corporations like IBM, which were only too happy to hire their best minds. Of course, India, weighed by the license raj, struggled to incubate private entrepreneurship and left IIT-ians with few incentives to remain in the country…</em>\r\n<em>While India celebrates Arvind Krishna’s appointment — he identifies himself as an electrical engineer — it is a reminder that the country should do more to let a thousand such innovators bloom at home.”</em>', 'IBM made IIT Kanpur what it is. It just returned the favour with CEO Arvind Krishna', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2915-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 04:57:39', '2020-02-17 04:57:39', '', 2915, 'https://marcellus.in/2915-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2917, 1, '2020-02-16 04:57:51', '2020-02-16 04:57:51', 'This outstanding piece from the legend that is Charles Ellis provides a far deeper understanding of Yale’s famous endowment investment model – helmed by the equally famous David Swensen - than anything else we have read to date on this iconic investment model.\r\nEllis starts with the basics by telling us why Swensen is a living legend. <em>“His gifts to the field of endowment investing have been numerous and substantial. First, of course, Swensen has set the example with his career commitment. Second, with his splendid book Pioneering Portfolio Management. Third, through the clarity of his moral compass when addressing complex questions of good governance. Fourth, by explaining complexities such as how to determine how much liquidity is optimal when investing in private equity. The list of crucial innovations goes on. Intergenerational equity is assured by using a sophisticated formula originated by Nobel Laureate James Tobin, who is also Swensen’s dissertation adviser and personal friend.”</em>\r\nThen Ellis starts telling us what the rest of us don’t understand about Yale’s model. <em>“Curiously, many investment managers and many members of the institutional investment community appear not to understand fully the great importance of risk management and risk control in the investment management process used at Yale. Adjusted for risk, certainly, the Yale endowment’s record of achievements would be shown to be even stronger.</em>\r\n<em>Risk controls in the Yale Model — important in several dimensions — start with the selection of members of the investment committee, center on diversification of the total portfolio and within each asset class, and extend to the careful selection of custody banks.”</em>\r\nThen he delves into the qualitative aspects of the Yale Model which are not properly appreciated by outsiders. <em>“The selection of managers has long been dominated by detailed assessments of character; the diversified structure of the total portfolio is designed to withstand the stresses of disruptive capital markets; diversification within each asset class is carefully designed; cash flows in venture and private equity are modeled to avoid “inconvenient” demands for funding; and once each year a soup-to-nuts review of the portfolio structure is undertaken in a rigorous search for imperfections….</em>\r\n<em>Swensen recruits from Yale College. Dozens apply. Only the best students get interviews. Of these, the most promising are invited to intern for a summer, and of those, a handful are invited to work with Swensen’s permanent staff for a few years after graduation. One or two may be invited to join the staff for the long term.</em>\r\n<em>Start with a factor already listed on the objective side of the ledger: risk control. Clearly a qualitative discipline, recognizing the centrality of risk control is a subjective factor and begins with the investment committee. At Yale members of this salient group are not chosen from those serving as trustees. The process is the reverse: Committee members are selected by Yale’s president, the chair of the investment committee, and Swensen for their ability to add value to the governance of the management of the endowment. Then, of those chosen for the committee, some are asked to serve as trustees, a sequence that ensures first-things-first.</em>\r\n<em>Committee members will long remember their responsibilities. Consistent attendance at all meetings is mandatory. At least as important is thorough preparation for active participation. Ten or more hours of reading and study before each meeting is normal. The depth and rigor of the due diligence done on managers are surely unusual and set a high standard for discussion during the quarterly meetings….</em>\r\n<em> One of Yale’s secrets is to regularly send a CPA (armed with a cheerful smile, a bow tie, and a helpful disposition) to spend a day or more with each manager to kick the tires and inspect all those internal aspects of an investment organization — reporting lines, compensation policies and practices, risk controls, information resources, etc. — that are rarely mentioned, let alone probed in-depth in conventional new-manager write-ups. Though new managers may be somewhat intimidated by the prospect, all experienced managers find the actual process congenial and the results helpful — and look forward to the next visit.</em>\r\n<em>Another qualitative Yale “secret” is the annual weekend outing when Yale hosts the managers for two special days. The first is spent on Yale’s iconic golf course, mixing managers with coaches and members of the varsity team. The second day is round-robin tennis with Yale’s president, provost, and several vice presidents, plus the varsity players and coaches. At dinner the president gives a short talk expressing gratitude, emphasizing how important it is to Yale’s fulfilling its mission to have such superb investment managers. (Note the difference from the usual attitude toward managers as mere “suppliers.”) Goodie bags filled with Yale paraphernalia are given out as reminders of a great time and a chance to get to know the whole team as real people with a deep commitment to the endowment and its mission of serving Yale University.</em>\r\n<em>A significant qualitative aspect of the Yale Model is not only that manager relationships are unusually long (averaging more than a dozen years)…”</em>', 'The (Easily Misunderstood) Yale Model', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-easily-misunderstood-yale-model', '', '', '2020-02-17 04:59:18', '2020-02-17 04:59:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2917', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2918, 1, '2020-02-17 04:59:18', '2020-02-17 04:59:18', 'This outstanding piece from the legend that is Charles Ellis provides a far deeper understanding of Yale’s famous endowment investment model – helmed by the equally famous David Swensen - than anything else we have read to date on this iconic investment model.\r\nEllis starts with the basics by telling us why Swensen is a living legend. <em>“His gifts to the field of endowment investing have been numerous and substantial. First, of course, Swensen has set the example with his career commitment. Second, with his splendid book Pioneering Portfolio Management. Third, through the clarity of his moral compass when addressing complex questions of good governance. Fourth, by explaining complexities such as how to determine how much liquidity is optimal when investing in private equity. The list of crucial innovations goes on. Intergenerational equity is assured by using a sophisticated formula originated by Nobel Laureate James Tobin, who is also Swensen’s dissertation adviser and personal friend.”</em>\r\nThen Ellis starts telling us what the rest of us don’t understand about Yale’s model. <em>“Curiously, many investment managers and many members of the institutional investment community appear not to understand fully the great importance of risk management and risk control in the investment management process used at Yale. Adjusted for risk, certainly, the Yale endowment’s record of achievements would be shown to be even stronger.</em>\r\n<em>Risk controls in the Yale Model — important in several dimensions — start with the selection of members of the investment committee, center on diversification of the total portfolio and within each asset class, and extend to the careful selection of custody banks.”</em>\r\nThen he delves into the qualitative aspects of the Yale Model which are not properly appreciated by outsiders. <em>“The selection of managers has long been dominated by detailed assessments of character; the diversified structure of the total portfolio is designed to withstand the stresses of disruptive capital markets; diversification within each asset class is carefully designed; cash flows in venture and private equity are modeled to avoid “inconvenient” demands for funding; and once each year a soup-to-nuts review of the portfolio structure is undertaken in a rigorous search for imperfections….</em>\r\n<em>Swensen recruits from Yale College. Dozens apply. Only the best students get interviews. Of these, the most promising are invited to intern for a summer, and of those, a handful are invited to work with Swensen’s permanent staff for a few years after graduation. One or two may be invited to join the staff for the long term.</em>\r\n<em>Start with a factor already listed on the objective side of the ledger: risk control. Clearly a qualitative discipline, recognizing the centrality of risk control is a subjective factor and begins with the investment committee. At Yale members of this salient group are not chosen from those serving as trustees. The process is the reverse: Committee members are selected by Yale’s president, the chair of the investment committee, and Swensen for their ability to add value to the governance of the management of the endowment. Then, of those chosen for the committee, some are asked to serve as trustees, a sequence that ensures first-things-first.</em>\r\n<em>Committee members will long remember their responsibilities. Consistent attendance at all meetings is mandatory. At least as important is thorough preparation for active participation. Ten or more hours of reading and study before each meeting is normal. The depth and rigor of the due diligence done on managers are surely unusual and set a high standard for discussion during the quarterly meetings….</em>\r\n<em> One of Yale’s secrets is to regularly send a CPA (armed with a cheerful smile, a bow tie, and a helpful disposition) to spend a day or more with each manager to kick the tires and inspect all those internal aspects of an investment organization — reporting lines, compensation policies and practices, risk controls, information resources, etc. — that are rarely mentioned, let alone probed in-depth in conventional new-manager write-ups. Though new managers may be somewhat intimidated by the prospect, all experienced managers find the actual process congenial and the results helpful — and look forward to the next visit.</em>\r\n<em>Another qualitative Yale “secret” is the annual weekend outing when Yale hosts the managers for two special days. The first is spent on Yale’s iconic golf course, mixing managers with coaches and members of the varsity team. The second day is round-robin tennis with Yale’s president, provost, and several vice presidents, plus the varsity players and coaches. At dinner the president gives a short talk expressing gratitude, emphasizing how important it is to Yale’s fulfilling its mission to have such superb investment managers. (Note the difference from the usual attitude toward managers as mere “suppliers.”) Goodie bags filled with Yale paraphernalia are given out as reminders of a great time and a chance to get to know the whole team as real people with a deep commitment to the endowment and its mission of serving Yale University.</em>\r\n<em>A significant qualitative aspect of the Yale Model is not only that manager relationships are unusually long (averaging more than a dozen years)…”</em>', 'The (Easily Misunderstood) Yale Model', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2917-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 04:59:18', '2020-02-17 04:59:18', '', 2917, 'https://marcellus.in/2917-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2919, 1, '2020-02-16 04:59:31', '2020-02-16 04:59:31', 'Increasing bodies of research show that social relationships are perhaps the biggest drivers of happiness, thanks to their role in the release of oxytocin, one of the happiness inducing chemicals in the human body and reduction in cortisol, the stress inducing hormone. This article highlights research which shows that this phenomenon is rather pronounced in adolescents and is largely determined by the bonds they build with friends, who take the role performed by parents when children are younger. The article stresses on how important it is for teachers and parents to let children build these bonds at these crucial years, which can not only make for happier teenagers but also enhance their learning abilities.\r\n<em>“Juvonen is a developmental psychologist at the University of California at Los Angeles. About 10 years ago, Juvonen set out to capture how peer relationships change over the course of adolescence. Over a period of three years, she and her team recruited 6,000 sixth graders from 26 different middle schools in Los Angeles and then followed each cohort. Every year, the participating children filled out a series of questions about peers: Name your closest friends. Does this kid have your back? Can you talk to him or her about anything? Do they come to your house? Have you ever been bullied? Have you seen anyone else be bullied?...</em>\r\n<em>…Friendship has real power for kids. Juvonen thinks that friendship may even begin to resemble an attachment relationship like what children initially have with parents. “[These] are really very, very close and emotionally intimate relationships,” Juvonen told me. “And even if that particular relationship doesn’t last, it has ramifications on ­subsequent relationships.”</em>\r\n<em>Too often educators and parents fail to appreciate the potential upside of these strong ties. Teachers often separate friends, whose banter can be disruptive in the classroom. Yet when researchers record student conversations during class, there is evidence that while kids are problem solving or working together, students collaborate more effectively with their friends. “Their dialogue is much deeper, cognitively more complex, than when we ask kids to work with just any classmate,” Juvonen said. “It’s really interesting that we as adults in the society often regard friendships more as a nuisance and a distraction rather than give them the value that they really deserve.”</em>\r\n<em>…Sixth graders who do not have friends are at risk of anxiety, depression, and low self-esteem. About 12 percent of the 6,000 sixth graders in Juvonen’s study were not named as a friend by anyone else. They had no one to sit with at lunch and no one to stick up for them when bullied…Juvonen and her student Leah Lessard investigated whether perceptions of social threat could explain the mental-health difficulties that beset friendless middle schoolers. Their hypothesis was that not having friends in sixth grade triggered a greater sense of threat in seventh grade, which led to increased internalizing difficulties, such as depression and anxiety, by eighth grade. Their research confirmed that theory: It wasn’t friendlessness alone that created problems, it was the resulting sense of threat.</em>\r\n<em>..We know that when they’re with their friends, adolescents are more likely to behave recklessly. A teenage driver who has other teenagers in the car is four times more likely to crash than one who is alone. The same is not true of adults. Teenagers are more likely to commit crimes when they’re together. Adults tend to be alone when they break the law. A teenager’s first sip of alcohol, or toke of marijuana, or experimentation with other drugs is more often in the company of friends than not. Specifically, they are seven times more likely to drink with friends than family and almost never drink for the first time when alone. Most adults think the blame goes to peer pressure—the sometimes overt, sometimes subtle urging by a teenager’s friends to try it, to chug, to just have one hit. But Steinberg has shown that it isn’t as simple as that. He and his colleagues discovered what they call a “peer effect.” Pressure doesn’t have to come into it, merely presence.</em>\r\n<em>..“There’s something about the brain during adolescence in mammals that is hardwired to be especially sensitive to peer influence and to be more reward-seeking in the presence of peers,” Steinberg said. Instead of calling the phenomenon peer pressure, they began calling it “peer presence.”</em>\r\n<em>Importantly, peer presence can be a force for good as well as for bad. “When teenagers are with each other, everything that feels good feels even better,” Steinberg said. If what feels good is something that also carries some danger to it, then kids get into trouble because they are ignorant of the danger—or choose to ignore it. But Steinberg and his colleagues have also shown that teenagers learn faster when they’re with their peers than they do by themselves. And they engage in more exploratory behavior when they’re with their peers.</em>\r\n<em>Who the peers are becomes very important. “Parents shouldn’t worry about peer pressure or peer influence,” Steinberg said. “They should worry about who the peers are that their kids are hanging around with.” When kids hang around with students who get better grades, their own grades go up over time. Teenagers can also pressure one another not to use drugs. Of course, the reverse is true as well. “Virtually all kids, because of the nature of adolescence, are going to be susceptible to peer influence and peer pressure,” Steinberg told me. “The question really is, whom are they influenced by and what is it they are being pressured to do?””</em>', 'The Outsize Influence of Your Middle-School Friends', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-outsize-influence-of-your-middle-school-friends', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:01:06', '2020-02-17 05:01:06', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2919', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2920, 1, '2020-02-17 05:01:06', '2020-02-17 05:01:06', 'Increasing bodies of research show that social relationships are perhaps the biggest drivers of happiness, thanks to their role in the release of oxytocin, one of the happiness inducing chemicals in the human body and reduction in cortisol, the stress inducing hormone. This article highlights research which shows that this phenomenon is rather pronounced in adolescents and is largely determined by the bonds they build with friends, who take the role performed by parents when children are younger. The article stresses on how important it is for teachers and parents to let children build these bonds at these crucial years, which can not only make for happier teenagers but also enhance their learning abilities.\r\n<em>“Juvonen is a developmental psychologist at the University of California at Los Angeles. About 10 years ago, Juvonen set out to capture how peer relationships change over the course of adolescence. Over a period of three years, she and her team recruited 6,000 sixth graders from 26 different middle schools in Los Angeles and then followed each cohort. Every year, the participating children filled out a series of questions about peers: Name your closest friends. Does this kid have your back? Can you talk to him or her about anything? Do they come to your house? Have you ever been bullied? Have you seen anyone else be bullied?...</em>\r\n<em>…Friendship has real power for kids. Juvonen thinks that friendship may even begin to resemble an attachment relationship like what children initially have with parents. “[These] are really very, very close and emotionally intimate relationships,” Juvonen told me. “And even if that particular relationship doesn’t last, it has ramifications on ­subsequent relationships.”</em>\r\n<em>Too often educators and parents fail to appreciate the potential upside of these strong ties. Teachers often separate friends, whose banter can be disruptive in the classroom. Yet when researchers record student conversations during class, there is evidence that while kids are problem solving or working together, students collaborate more effectively with their friends. “Their dialogue is much deeper, cognitively more complex, than when we ask kids to work with just any classmate,” Juvonen said. “It’s really interesting that we as adults in the society often regard friendships more as a nuisance and a distraction rather than give them the value that they really deserve.”</em>\r\n<em>…Sixth graders who do not have friends are at risk of anxiety, depression, and low self-esteem. About 12 percent of the 6,000 sixth graders in Juvonen’s study were not named as a friend by anyone else. They had no one to sit with at lunch and no one to stick up for them when bullied…Juvonen and her student Leah Lessard investigated whether perceptions of social threat could explain the mental-health difficulties that beset friendless middle schoolers. Their hypothesis was that not having friends in sixth grade triggered a greater sense of threat in seventh grade, which led to increased internalizing difficulties, such as depression and anxiety, by eighth grade. Their research confirmed that theory: It wasn’t friendlessness alone that created problems, it was the resulting sense of threat.</em>\r\n<em>..We know that when they’re with their friends, adolescents are more likely to behave recklessly. A teenage driver who has other teenagers in the car is four times more likely to crash than one who is alone. The same is not true of adults. Teenagers are more likely to commit crimes when they’re together. Adults tend to be alone when they break the law. A teenager’s first sip of alcohol, or toke of marijuana, or experimentation with other drugs is more often in the company of friends than not. Specifically, they are seven times more likely to drink with friends than family and almost never drink for the first time when alone. Most adults think the blame goes to peer pressure—the sometimes overt, sometimes subtle urging by a teenager’s friends to try it, to chug, to just have one hit. But Steinberg has shown that it isn’t as simple as that. He and his colleagues discovered what they call a “peer effect.” Pressure doesn’t have to come into it, merely presence.</em>\r\n<em>..“There’s something about the brain during adolescence in mammals that is hardwired to be especially sensitive to peer influence and to be more reward-seeking in the presence of peers,” Steinberg said. Instead of calling the phenomenon peer pressure, they began calling it “peer presence.”</em>\r\n<em>Importantly, peer presence can be a force for good as well as for bad. “When teenagers are with each other, everything that feels good feels even better,” Steinberg said. If what feels good is something that also carries some danger to it, then kids get into trouble because they are ignorant of the danger—or choose to ignore it. But Steinberg and his colleagues have also shown that teenagers learn faster when they’re with their peers than they do by themselves. And they engage in more exploratory behavior when they’re with their peers.</em>\r\n<em>Who the peers are becomes very important. “Parents shouldn’t worry about peer pressure or peer influence,” Steinberg said. “They should worry about who the peers are that their kids are hanging around with.” When kids hang around with students who get better grades, their own grades go up over time. Teenagers can also pressure one another not to use drugs. Of course, the reverse is true as well. “Virtually all kids, because of the nature of adolescence, are going to be susceptible to peer influence and peer pressure,” Steinberg told me. “The question really is, whom are they influenced by and what is it they are being pressured to do?””</em>', 'The Outsize Influence of Your Middle-School Friends', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2919-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:01:06', '2020-02-17 05:01:06', '', 2919, 'https://marcellus.in/2919-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2921, 1, '2020-02-16 05:01:19', '2020-02-16 05:01:19', 'Another brilliantly researched piece by Morgan Housel bringing out a simple yet hard to believe reality – <em>“hindsight makes most people look dumber than they actually were.”</em> In this blog, Housel shows that the depression seemed nowhere close to being inevitable even days prior to the bust just as much as the preceeding boom years were barely foreseen prior to that. He does that by referring to numerous press articles/headlines from those times which fascinatingly showed an absolute lack of anticipation of what was likely to follow.\r\nJust last month, Bob Prince who runs one of the largest hedge funds at Bridgewater Associates <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78f4fd9e03&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D78f4fd9e03%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581996675066000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH42F9x4Z7JGCkzMtaqv-xrIIO_Mw\">suggested</a> that the boom-bust cycle might be over given the central banks’ approach to monetary policy. Apparently, Irving Fisher, the famous Yale economist is known to have made a similar remark, just days before the beginning of the Great Depression – Housel attaches a newspaper cutting of that now infamous pronouncement. And Housel’s point is that we might attribute this to irrational exuberance in hindsight but back then in real time the idea could have seemed perfectly rational.\r\n<em>“The notion that recessions had been eliminated is easy to laugh at. But you have to consider three things about the 1920s that made the idea seem feasible.</em>\r\n<em>One is that the four inventions that transformed the 1920s – electricity, cars, the airplane, and the radio, and – seemed indistinguishable from magic to most Americans. They were more transformational to the economy than anything since the steam engine, and changed the way the average American lived day to day than perhaps any other technology before or since. Technology that spreads so far, so fast, and deeply tends to create an era of optimism, and a belief that humans can solve any problem no matter how difficult it looks. When you go from a horse to an airplane in one generation, taming the business cycle doesn’t sound outrageous, does it?</em>\r\n<em>A second factor that made the end of recessions seem feasible was the idea that World War I was the “war to end all wars.” The documentary How to Live Forever asks a group of centenarians what the happiest day of their life was. “Armistice Day” one woman says, referring to the 1918 agreement that ended World War I. “Why?” the producer asks. “Because we knew there would be no more wars ever again,” she says. When you believe the world has entered an era of permanent peace, assuming permanent prosperity will follow isn’t a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>A third argument for why prosperity would be permanent was the diversification of the global economy. Manufacturing was to the 1920s what technology was to the 2000s – a new industry with big wages and seemingly endless growth. But unlike technology today, manufacturing was incredibly labor-intensive, providing good jobs for tens of millions of Americans. A new and powerful industry can create a sense that past rules of boom and bust no longer apply, because the economy has a new quiver in its belt.”</em>\r\nWhilst there were some who reckoned that the stock market was <em>‘overpriced’</em>, what transpired soon after was beyond anyone’s imagination:\r\n<em>“Over the next three years the Great Depression put 12 million Americans out of work.</em>\r\n<em>The stock market fell 89%, reverting to levels last seen 36 years prior.</em>\r\n<em>GDP fell 27%.</em>\r\n<em>Prices fell 10% per year.</em>\r\n<em>Nine thousand banks failed, erasing $150 billion in American checking and savings accounts.</em>\r\n<em>Births declined 17%.</em>\r\n<em>Divorce rose by a third.</em>\r\n<em>Suicides rose by half.</em>\r\n<em>The depression gave rise to Adolf Hitler in Germany, setting the course for a world war that would go on to impact nearly every aspect of life we know today.</em>\r\n<em>It was, without question, one of the most consequential events of modern history. And when we look back at what people were thinking before it began, the question remains:</em>\r\n<em>Did they know?</em>\r\n<em>Did they have any clue?</em>\r\n<em>Were they blind to the inevitable?</em>\r\n<em>Or did they just suffer a terrible fate that wasn’t inevitable?”</em>\r\nIn the same vein, no on couldn\'t predict the boom periods that followed World War II, or the 1987 crash or the global financial crisis in 2009.', 'History is Only Interesting Because Nothing is Inevitable', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'history-is-only-interesting-because-nothing-is-inevitable', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:02:42', '2020-02-17 05:02:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2921', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2922, 1, '2020-02-17 05:02:42', '2020-02-17 05:02:42', 'Another brilliantly researched piece by Morgan Housel bringing out a simple yet hard to believe reality – <em>“hindsight makes most people look dumber than they actually were.”</em> In this blog, Housel shows that the depression seemed nowhere close to being inevitable even days prior to the bust just as much as the preceeding boom years were barely foreseen prior to that. He does that by referring to numerous press articles/headlines from those times which fascinatingly showed an absolute lack of anticipation of what was likely to follow.\r\nJust last month, Bob Prince who runs one of the largest hedge funds at Bridgewater Associates <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=78f4fd9e03&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D78f4fd9e03%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581996675066000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH42F9x4Z7JGCkzMtaqv-xrIIO_Mw\">suggested</a> that the boom-bust cycle might be over given the central banks’ approach to monetary policy. Apparently, Irving Fisher, the famous Yale economist is known to have made a similar remark, just days before the beginning of the Great Depression – Housel attaches a newspaper cutting of that now infamous pronouncement. And Housel’s point is that we might attribute this to irrational exuberance in hindsight but back then in real time the idea could have seemed perfectly rational.\r\n<em>“The notion that recessions had been eliminated is easy to laugh at. But you have to consider three things about the 1920s that made the idea seem feasible.</em>\r\n<em>One is that the four inventions that transformed the 1920s – electricity, cars, the airplane, and the radio, and – seemed indistinguishable from magic to most Americans. They were more transformational to the economy than anything since the steam engine, and changed the way the average American lived day to day than perhaps any other technology before or since. Technology that spreads so far, so fast, and deeply tends to create an era of optimism, and a belief that humans can solve any problem no matter how difficult it looks. When you go from a horse to an airplane in one generation, taming the business cycle doesn’t sound outrageous, does it?</em>\r\n<em>A second factor that made the end of recessions seem feasible was the idea that World War I was the “war to end all wars.” The documentary How to Live Forever asks a group of centenarians what the happiest day of their life was. “Armistice Day” one woman says, referring to the 1918 agreement that ended World War I. “Why?” the producer asks. “Because we knew there would be no more wars ever again,” she says. When you believe the world has entered an era of permanent peace, assuming permanent prosperity will follow isn’t a big stretch.</em>\r\n<em>A third argument for why prosperity would be permanent was the diversification of the global economy. Manufacturing was to the 1920s what technology was to the 2000s – a new industry with big wages and seemingly endless growth. But unlike technology today, manufacturing was incredibly labor-intensive, providing good jobs for tens of millions of Americans. A new and powerful industry can create a sense that past rules of boom and bust no longer apply, because the economy has a new quiver in its belt.”</em>\r\nWhilst there were some who reckoned that the stock market was <em>‘overpriced’</em>, what transpired soon after was beyond anyone’s imagination:\r\n<em>“Over the next three years the Great Depression put 12 million Americans out of work.</em>\r\n<em>The stock market fell 89%, reverting to levels last seen 36 years prior.</em>\r\n<em>GDP fell 27%.</em>\r\n<em>Prices fell 10% per year.</em>\r\n<em>Nine thousand banks failed, erasing $150 billion in American checking and savings accounts.</em>\r\n<em>Births declined 17%.</em>\r\n<em>Divorce rose by a third.</em>\r\n<em>Suicides rose by half.</em>\r\n<em>The depression gave rise to Adolf Hitler in Germany, setting the course for a world war that would go on to impact nearly every aspect of life we know today.</em>\r\n<em>It was, without question, one of the most consequential events of modern history. And when we look back at what people were thinking before it began, the question remains:</em>\r\n<em>Did they know?</em>\r\n<em>Did they have any clue?</em>\r\n<em>Were they blind to the inevitable?</em>\r\n<em>Or did they just suffer a terrible fate that wasn’t inevitable?”</em>\r\nIn the same vein, no on couldn\'t predict the boom periods that followed World War II, or the 1987 crash or the global financial crisis in 2009.', 'History is Only Interesting Because Nothing is Inevitable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2921-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:02:42', '2020-02-17 05:02:42', '', 2921, 'https://marcellus.in/2921-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2923, 1, '2020-02-16 05:02:56', '2020-02-16 05:02:56', 'This article was written just before the actual Academy awards night. And the conclusion wouldn’t have been any different if it were to have been done after the awards where Netflix managed to win all of a mere two awards. Indeed, the day after the awards’ night, Netflix’s shares rose, somewhat explained by the article which focuses on the business arithmetic behind Netflix’s Oscar <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=802d864845&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D802d864845%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581996675066000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGS55GrRGoGV6K6NQLv8SChEtfx1A\">lobbying</a> efforts, where winning the actual award carries little weight.\r\n<em>“For Netflix, however, the math is different. The equation has an extra variable or two and the decimal points tends to drift to the east. Oscar advertising for the streaming giant is still additive for its platform, and will likely continue to be as long as a Netflix nomination is a somewhat novel thing. This year, Netflix is up for 24 statues, more than any of its movie-making rivals. When a film like Roma is nominated for an Oscar and Netflix makes sure people know about it, the company wins curious subscribers, who, in turn, are more likely to queue up The Irishman, Marriage Story or the other five Netflix films on the ballot this year.</em>\r\n<em>Other studios aren’t so lucky. A fan of Little Women, for example, probably isn’t any more inclined to see Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Pain and Glory or any of the other Sony flicks in the running. As a consultant from central casting might say: there are no synergies.</em>\r\n<em>The payoff for Hollywood incumbents is the box-office bump a movie enjoys after winning, and the higher value it eventually commands when its rights are sold to Netflix or some other streaming platform. Streaming, however, has dragged down the value of an Oscar triumph. Late-comers are less likely to scurry out and catch a Best Picture at the theater when they know it can be screened from their couch.</em>\r\n<em>Oscar advertising isn’t a zero-sum game, but it’s close. There are only so many private screenings and local TV slots to go around, particularly in the tiny window between when the nominations drop and when the envelopes are opened. Netflix is forcing its rivals to spend more to stay in the spotlight, which leaves just a little bit less to splash around on other things like, say, producing a great film or landing an Oscar-winning director.”</em>', 'Netflix Already Won the Oscars', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'netflix-already-won-the-oscars', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:04:33', '2020-02-17 05:04:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2923', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2924, 1, '2020-02-17 05:04:33', '2020-02-17 05:04:33', 'This article was written just before the actual Academy awards night. And the conclusion wouldn’t have been any different if it were to have been done after the awards where Netflix managed to win all of a mere two awards. Indeed, the day after the awards’ night, Netflix’s shares rose, somewhat explained by the article which focuses on the business arithmetic behind Netflix’s Oscar <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=802d864845&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D802d864845%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1581996675066000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGS55GrRGoGV6K6NQLv8SChEtfx1A\">lobbying</a> efforts, where winning the actual award carries little weight.\r\n<em>“For Netflix, however, the math is different. The equation has an extra variable or two and the decimal points tends to drift to the east. Oscar advertising for the streaming giant is still additive for its platform, and will likely continue to be as long as a Netflix nomination is a somewhat novel thing. This year, Netflix is up for 24 statues, more than any of its movie-making rivals. When a film like Roma is nominated for an Oscar and Netflix makes sure people know about it, the company wins curious subscribers, who, in turn, are more likely to queue up The Irishman, Marriage Story or the other five Netflix films on the ballot this year.</em>\r\n<em>Other studios aren’t so lucky. A fan of Little Women, for example, probably isn’t any more inclined to see Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Pain and Glory or any of the other Sony flicks in the running. As a consultant from central casting might say: there are no synergies.</em>\r\n<em>The payoff for Hollywood incumbents is the box-office bump a movie enjoys after winning, and the higher value it eventually commands when its rights are sold to Netflix or some other streaming platform. Streaming, however, has dragged down the value of an Oscar triumph. Late-comers are less likely to scurry out and catch a Best Picture at the theater when they know it can be screened from their couch.</em>\r\n<em>Oscar advertising isn’t a zero-sum game, but it’s close. There are only so many private screenings and local TV slots to go around, particularly in the tiny window between when the nominations drop and when the envelopes are opened. Netflix is forcing its rivals to spend more to stay in the spotlight, which leaves just a little bit less to splash around on other things like, say, producing a great film or landing an Oscar-winning director.”</em>', 'Netflix Already Won the Oscars', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2923-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:04:33', '2020-02-17 05:04:33', '', 2923, 'https://marcellus.in/2923-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2925, 1, '2020-02-16 05:04:46', '2020-02-16 05:04:46', 'Humans are losing to robots in a rapidly rising number of industries. If ‘Robo Advisors’ have taken off in the world of financial advisory or wealth management, now, ‘Robo analysts’ seem to be disrupting the hallowed world of sell side equity research analysts. Indeed, a study by the Kelley School of Business at Indian University shows that stock recommendations by computer programs outperform those by human analysts. The study looks into the reasons for the outperformance, which look obvious in some sense. First, the programs lack the several cognitive biases that human analysts suffer from and hence enjoy superior objectivity for their analysis and recommendations. Second, computers can naturally parse through vast amounts of data and information much faster and more efficiently than their human counterparts, thereby improving the efficacy of research. Indeed, the proportion of Buy and Sell recommendations from computer programs is far more reasonable than that of humans  - <em>“Out of the total pool of outstanding robo-analyst recommendations, more than 30% represented buy ratings compared with 47% from traditional analysts (the overall number of outstanding recommendations from traditional analysts was five times the robots’). About a quarter of recommendations from the machines fell into the sell category, compared with 6% from humans.</em>\r\n<em>“The Indiana University study analyzed more than 76,000 reports issued by seven different robo-analyst firms between 2003 and 2018. Among the findings were that automated services are more likely to produce sell ratings (as opposed to holds and buys) than traditional firms. They also revise their reports more frequently and may be better at accounting for large and complex corporate disclosures, including filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</em>\r\n<em>…Traditional analysts have been under pressure recently -- machines have been doing a bigger share of the work while investors increasingly pile into passive funds. In the next decade, automation could reduce headcount on Wall Street and the banking industry by about 200,000, according to Wells Fargo Securities.</em>\r\n<em>“What we’re seeing is that research budgets at these banks are being constrained, the value proposition of sell-side equity research is being reconsidered -- for us, this industry is ripe for disruption,” said Merkley. “Technology is one of those disruptions because you can do things probably at lower cost and greater scale.””</em>', 'Robot Analysts Outwit Humans in Study of Profit From Stock Calls', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'robot-analysts-outwit-humans-in-study-of-profit-from-stock-calls', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:16:00', '2020-02-17 05:16:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2925', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2927, 1, '2020-02-17 05:16:00', '2020-02-17 05:16:00', 'Humans are losing to robots in a rapidly rising number of industries. If ‘Robo Advisors’ have taken off in the world of financial advisory or wealth management, now, ‘Robo analysts’ seem to be disrupting the hallowed world of sell side equity research analysts. Indeed, a study by the Kelley School of Business at Indian University shows that stock recommendations by computer programs outperform those by human analysts. The study looks into the reasons for the outperformance, which look obvious in some sense. First, the programs lack the several cognitive biases that human analysts suffer from and hence enjoy superior objectivity for their analysis and recommendations. Second, computers can naturally parse through vast amounts of data and information much faster and more efficiently than their human counterparts, thereby improving the efficacy of research. Indeed, the proportion of Buy and Sell recommendations from computer programs is far more reasonable than that of humans  - <em>“Out of the total pool of outstanding robo-analyst recommendations, more than 30% represented buy ratings compared with 47% from traditional analysts (the overall number of outstanding recommendations from traditional analysts was five times the robots’). About a quarter of recommendations from the machines fell into the sell category, compared with 6% from humans.</em>\r\n<em>“The Indiana University study analyzed more than 76,000 reports issued by seven different robo-analyst firms between 2003 and 2018. Among the findings were that automated services are more likely to produce sell ratings (as opposed to holds and buys) than traditional firms. They also revise their reports more frequently and may be better at accounting for large and complex corporate disclosures, including filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</em>\r\n<em>…Traditional analysts have been under pressure recently -- machines have been doing a bigger share of the work while investors increasingly pile into passive funds. In the next decade, automation could reduce headcount on Wall Street and the banking industry by about 200,000, according to Wells Fargo Securities.</em>\r\n<em>“What we’re seeing is that research budgets at these banks are being constrained, the value proposition of sell-side equity research is being reconsidered -- for us, this industry is ripe for disruption,” said Merkley. “Technology is one of those disruptions because you can do things probably at lower cost and greater scale.””</em>', 'Robot Analysts Outwit Humans in Study of Profit From Stock Calls', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2925-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:16:00', '2020-02-17 05:16:00', '', 2925, 'https://marcellus.in/2925-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2926, 1, '2020-02-17 05:07:17', '2020-02-17 05:07:17', 'Humans are losing to robots in a rapidly rising number of industries. If ‘Robo Advisors’ have taken off in the world of financial advisory or wealth management, now, ‘Robo analysts’ seem to be disrupting the hallowed world of sell side equity research analysts. Indeed, a study by the Kelley School of Business at Indian University shows that stock recommendations by computer programs outperform those by human analysts. The study looks into the reasons for the outperformance, which look obvious in some sense. First, the programs lack the several cognitive biases that human analysts suffer from and hence enjoy superior objectivity for their analysis and recommendations. Second, computers can naturally parse through vast amounts of data and information much faster and more efficiently than their human counterparts, thereby improving the efficacy of research. Indeed, the proportion of Buy and Sell recommendations from computer programs is far more reasonable than that of humans  - <em>“Out of the total pool of outstanding robo-analyst recommendations, more than 30% represented buy ratings compared with 47% from traditional analysts (the overall number of outstanding recommendations from traditional analysts was five times the robots’). About a quarter of recommendations from the machines fell into the sell category, compared with 6% from humans.</em>\r\n<em>“The Indiana University study analyzed more than 76,000 reports issued by seven different robo-analyst firms between 2003 and 2018. Among the findings were that automated services are more likely to produce sell ratings (as opposed to holds and buys) than traditional firms. They also revise their reports more frequently and may be better at accounting for large and complex corporate disclosures, including filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.</em>\r\n<em>…Traditional analysts have been under pressure recently -- machines have been doing a bigger share of the work while investors increasingly pile into passive funds. In the next decade, automation could reduce headcount on Wall Street and the banking industry by about 200,000, according to Wells Fargo Securities.</em>\r\n<em>“What we’re seeing is that research budgets at these banks are being constrained, the value proposition of sell-side equity research is being reconsidered -- for us, this industry is ripe for disruption,” said Merkley. “Technology is one of those disruptions because you can do things probably at lower cost and greater scale.””</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Robot Analysts Outwit Humans in Study of Profit From Stock Calls', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2925-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-17 05:07:17', '2020-02-17 05:07:17', '', 2925, 'https://marcellus.in/2925-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3081, 1, '2020-03-29 05:55:52', '2020-03-29 05:55:52', 'A popular view doing the rounds these days is that the battle against Coronavirus is nothing short of a full scale war against the pathogen. Hence, we are told that we should gird our loins and get ready for a long haul. Morgan Housel in the piece highlighted here explains why the battle against Covid will be akin to World War II. If you buy into this analogy you should note that in the four years in which America fought the War, its stockmarket rallied by 130% - see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c1ee0d9856&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc1ee0d9856%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399746000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJP0bXuqoeN6X4iJHSzFdRyhR8Hg\">https://www.investors.com/how-<wbr />to-invest/investors-corner/<wbr />stock-market-world-war-ii-<wbr />follow-through-day-depression/</a>\r\nWhen Housel says that what we are facing is like a War, he seems to be taking a fairly positive view of what War means: <em>“We can’t look at history to tell us what might happen next. We can, though, use history as a guide to predict the kind of behaviors people are susceptible to when faced with a similar event.</em>\r\n<em>And that’s where there is a historical map.</em>\r\n<em>It’s World War II.</em>\r\n<em>Not the battle or the geopolitics. But World War II united most of the world against a common enemy in a way that’s incredibly rare. Cooperation within, and between, countries surged.</em>\r\n<em>The fight against COVID-19 is nearly identical in that respect. This may be the first time since the 1940s that so much of the world is united so firmly against such a specific foe.</em>\r\n<em>What unity did to people’s behaviors – their abilities, their outlooks, their incentives – surprised many during World War II. If history is any guide, we’re about to be surprised again.”</em>\r\nSo what are the economic consequences of going to War? As per Housel’s WWII analogy they are: <em>“Private factories would have to halt production of everyday goods – cars, clothes, appliances – and retool to build planes, tanks, and guns. This was done by federal order. Fewer than 200 civilian vehicles were built in the United States from 1942 to 1945. Every assembly line was devoted to war.</em>\r\n<em>Second, wages had to be stabilized. No big raises, no big cuts. FDR told the nation in 1942: “Do you work for wages? You will have to forego higher wages for your particular job for the duration of the war.”</em>\r\n<em>Third, everyday goods had to be rationed. Gasoline, sugar, rubber, steel – limits were placed on how much and when you could buy.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, taxes would be raised. Income would be effectively capped.”</em>\r\nAnd through all this economic suffering, Housel believes that WWII was a positive social event – a social unifier – which compelled people to come together. His hope is that Covid could do something similar although with the social distancing required to deal with Covid, presumably the only place we will come together is in social media: <em>“Political rivalries melted virtually overnight. Republican House Minority Leader Joseph Martin said: “There is no politics here. There is only one party when it comes to the integrity and honor of this country.”</em>\r\n<em>Across America men and women were either sent to war or to a factory or office to support it. People didn’t just have jobs; they had a role in keeping the free world alive…England is a fascinating example because of the relentless night bombings that took place during the Blitz. Sebastian Junger writes in his book Tribe:</em>\r\n<em>“Before the war, projections for psychiatric breakdown in England ran as high as four million people, but as the Blitz progressed, psychiatric hospitals around the country saw admissions go down. Emergency services in London reported an average of only two cases of “bomb neuroses” a week. Psychiatrists watched in puzzlement as long-standing patients saw their symptoms subside during the period of intense air raids.”….</em>\r\n<em>Back in America the solidarity bound people in ways that seemed unfathomable years before. Women entered the workforce in record numbers. Racial equality – though far from perfect – surged. “Probably the most important thing that has happened in the United States in the field of race relations,” Eleanor Roosevelt wrote, “is that so many things are now taken for granted where the integration of the two races is concerned.””</em>', 'Common Enemies', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'common-enemies', '', '', '2020-03-30 05:56:46', '2020-03-30 05:56:46', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3081', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(2929, 1, '2020-02-19 13:57:16', '2020-02-19 13:57:16', 'The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) posits that all stocks always reflect all available information in their prices, making it impossible to find or buy undervalued stocks. With stock selection being redundant, the one way to increase portfolio returns is to increase systemic risk – i.e. buying high beta stocks. Many distinguished investors, including Warren Buffett have torn apart the very foundations of EMH. Called ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6611b97339&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Superinvestors</a>’ by Buffett, these all have been successful proponents of the value investing strategy – the assumption that markets are not efficient and there are opportunities in finding and buying stocks that are undervalued.\r\n\r\nIn the Indian context, there is a group of stocks that that has consistently flummoxed followers of the EMH as well as of value investing. These are stocks of Indian public sector units (PSUs). Say, for example, you bought State Bank of India, a stock with a relatively high beta of 1.3 in 2010. What would be your 10-year return? A CAGR of just 7.3%. If on the other hand, you tried applying value investing principles and picked a ‘low’ P/E multiple stock like ONGC (11.5x P/E), you would have lost money in absolute terms over a 10-year period.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2930\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Annotation-2020-02-19-192441.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"361\" />\r\n\r\nFor many practitioners of value investing, the quest for finding undervalued bargains often leads to stocks that look optically inexpensive – that is stocks with ‘low’ price-to-earnings ratio (PE), price-to-book value (P/BV) or enterprise value to EBIDTA (EV/EBITDA) multiples. Relying on such multiples however, has two hazards – first is extent to which one can trust reported accounting earnings (the ‘E’ in the ratio) and second is the inability of these multiples to appropriately factor in the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=15e550b9a5&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">longevity of the underlying earnings</a>. However, a ‘low’ multiple stock is a temptation that’s hard to resist for someone in the hunt of an undervalued stock that will deliver superior long-term returns. A common refrain you’ll hear is “What’s to lose in a 6x PE stock”?\r\n\r\nIn some cases, the answer to the above question is – “A LOT”. The P/E erosion of PSU stocks shows up starkly in their share price performance. As of 31 Jan 2020, 7.6% of the Nifty comprised of PSU stocks. A decade ago, the corresponding ratio was 13.4%. If a decade ago, you had invested Rs 100 in the nine PSU stocks in the Nifty (assume 100 is spread equally across the 9 stocks), on 31 Jan 2020, you would have Rs 163 in your hand (including reinvested dividends). That equates to an annual rate of return of 5%. Over the same period, the Nifty returned a CAGR of 10.7%.\r\n\r\nSo why are PSU stocks serial underperformers? The usual answers to relatively weaker financial fundamentals of PSUs include ‘public sector inefficiency’ or ‘constraints of working under the 3 Cs – CAG, CVC and Courts’. A key reason, however, is that as minority shareholders, investors play on an uneven field with the government on the other side as a dominant shareholder as also as a customer of these PSUs. This duality of the government’s role puts at risk the efficient use of capital by PSUs, as well as the longevity of their earnings, which then reflect in the low multiples.\r\n\r\n<strong>Government as dominant shareholder</strong>\r\nIn the last few years, the government has hit upon a novel way of disinvestment. Instead of offering its stake in PSUs to external financial or strategic investors, the government has forced a merger of two PSUs or the acquisition of one by another. This transfers to gives the cash reserves of the buying PSU to the government, without diluting its effective control over the selling PSU. The poor minority shareholders end up indirectly owning businesses they may have no interest in. For example, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=01bbe9203e&amp;e=5648501957\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NTPC is set to acquire</a> the government’s stake in two hydropower entities for approximately Rs100bn. These acquisitions will see NTPC’s hydropower generating capacity increasing materially from the current ~1.5%. This significantly transforms the risk profile of the business, but minority shareholders hardly have any say in it.\r\n\r\nA similar case played out in ONGC’s acquisition of the government’s stake in HPCL in January 2018. While this made the government richer by Rs369bn, minority shareholders in ONGC saw their stock price slide steadily and is now 50% lower since the acquisition. There of course are other reasons also for ONGC’s poor stock price performance. However, the PE ‘de-rating’ is permanent because the risk of minority shareholders getting short-changed in the future will always remain. And that is why the stock trades at a ‘cheap’ valuation of just 5x PE. NTPC also appears ‘attractively valued’ at about 1x P/BV, but it is so because of the risk of the dominant shareholder continuing to influence poor capital allocation decisions on the management and/or compromising the company’s longer-term earnings sustainability.\r\n\r\n<strong>Government as a customer</strong>\r\nIn many industries, the government is a major or in some cases, the only buyer of a PSU’s products. Let’s take the example of defence PSUs (DPSUs) such as Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat Dynamics etc., where the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is the only domestic customer. As a customer, the MoD wants to procure defence equipment at the best or lowest possible cost and as the dominant shareholder, it would desire to sell at the highest possible price. The conflict is not serious where a DPSU is 100% owned by the Ministry but becomes a cause of concern where there are minority shareholders. In such cases, the ministry, as a customer, can reduce pricing/profitability for the PSUs, but as a shareholder, it would escape bearing the entire brunt of the reduced profitability. This is what happened in September 2018, when the MoD reduced the margins on equipment procured from DPSUs on nomination basis. While the government gained from lower procurement costs on all future purchases, investors in a leading DPSU lost 33% of their wealth in a 3-week period from the reduced margin norms becoming known.\r\n\r\nThese issues beg the question: should PSUs where such conflicts are likely to arise be listed at all? The government believes, and rightly so, that listing increases market scrutiny and makes PSUs more accountable and hence, more efficient. But experience with many listed PSUs shows that is not always the case.\r\n\r\nThe alternative is to sell 100% of the government stake and permanently separate the unified customer/supplier set up. However, privatisation in India has multiple political angles rather than just plain economic ones and one can’t be sure how aggressively any government in power will take this path.\r\n\r\nA possible way then to resolve the conflict of interest is to separate the ownership and procurement functions within the government. The government can create a separate Ministry of PSUs to act on behalf of the shareholders, that has a mandate to maximise profitability for all PSUs it is responsible for. Such a mandate would mean that procurement rules favour the supplier with the best possible price/quality/delivery balance, irrespective of whether it’s a PSU or a private sector company. This will also mean that shareholders have a representative to resist any attempts at corporate actions that impact earnings or put balance sheets at risk.\r\n\r\nWhile rules already exist for competitive procurement across government departments, the separation of responsibilities would mean these rules are effectively implemented. An added advantage of such a separation is that it helps level the playing field for the private sector to compete in government contracts, especially in case of ministries where a separate policymaking or regulatory body does not exist. So, if the urban development ministry wants to redevelop government properties, it need not be done by a PSU under the ministry’s control, but by any agency with the most competitive project delivery capabilities.\r\n\r\nWhat is the likelihood this measure helps achieve resolution of the conflict of interest, considering that ownership and procurement continue to remain with the government, even if under separate operational ministries? The answer to this lies in the history of disinvestment in the country. The disinvestment program saw success only after the decision and execution of the same was vested in a separate Ministry of Disinvestment and not with the ministry in charge of the PSU. Today, a separate department under the Ministry of Finance decides what, when and how to divest. A separation of ownership from the functional ministry has the potential to improve efficiencies in PSUs and benefit all shareholders – the government as well as minorities.\r\n\r\nHowever, there is a practical problem with the remedy mooted above – if you separate the ownership of the PSU from the functional ministry, you effectively reduce the scope for rent-seeking and patronage available to the said ministry. This obviously is likely to be resisted by the powers that be in that ministry. And hence it is hard to see how government owned entities will ever break free of the bind laid out above. That in turn makes it all but certain that PSU stocks will continue to be serial underperformers. In effect, they are caught between two masters – the sovereign on the one hand and the demanding minority shareholder on the other. Arguably, that conflict of interest undermines their ability to serve either master fully. The cheap multiples mask this crucial aspect of investing in PSU stocks. On a broader note, the inability to capture such dynamics is what results in the traditional format of value investing also serially underperforming in India.\r\n\r\n<em>Salil Desai and Saurabh Mukherjea are Portfolio Counsellor and CIO respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7cac9818a7&amp;e=5648501957\">www.marcellus.in</a>).</em>', 'How PSU stocks disprove the Efficient Markets Hypothesis', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-psu-stocks-disprove-the-efficient-markets-hypothesis', '', '', '2020-02-19 13:57:16', '2020-02-19 13:57:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2929', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(2939, 1, '2020-02-23 04:26:47', '2020-02-23 04:26:47', 'For a historian to be profiled in a 10,000 word article in the New Yorker, which is arguably the world’s best magazine, he/she has to be pretty special. Most people who have read Yuval Noah Harari’s books will argue that he is pretty special. This profile tells you more about this unique man.\r\nThe piece first gives you the backstory behind Harari’s global bestseller “Sapiens”, the sort of book which you read once and remember for the rest of your life: “In 2008, Yuval Noah Harari, a young historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, began to write a book derived from an undergraduate world-history class that he was teaching. Twenty lectures became twenty chapters. Harari, who had previously written about aspects of medieval and early-modern warfare—but whose intellectual appetite, since childhood, had been for all-encompassing accounts of the world—wrote in plain, short sentences that displayed no anxiety about the academic decorum of a study spanning hundreds of thousands of years. It was a history of everyone, ever. The book, published in Hebrew as “A Brief History of Humankind,” became an Israeli best-seller; then, as “Sapiens,” it became an international one. Readers were offered the vertiginous pleasure of acquiring apparent mastery of all human affairs—evolution, agriculture, economics—while watching their personal narratives, even their national narratives, shrink to a point of invisibility. President Barack Obama, speaking to CNN in 2016, compared the book to a visit he’d made to the pyramids of Giza.”\r\nIn the decade following Sapiens, Harari published two other well received books (one of which deprived our book “Coffee Can Investing” of the “2018 Book of Year” prize from Amazon.in): “Harari…has spent the years since the publication of “Sapiens” in conversations about this cliffhanger. His two subsequent best-sellers—“Homo Deus” (2017) and “21 Lessons for the 21st Century” (2018)—focus on the present and the near future. Harari now defines himself as both a historian and a philosopher. He dwells particularly on the possibility that biometric monitoring, coupled with advanced computing, will give corporations and governments access to more complete data about people—about their desires and liabilities—than people have about themselves. A life under such scrutiny, he said recently, is liable to become “one long, stressing job interview.”\r\nHarari’s fame, lifestyle and income are now commensurate to that of a rockstar. The New Yorker gives mortals like us glimpses into the life of this extraordinary man: “…when speaking at conferences where C.E.O.s meet public intellectuals, or visiting Mark Zuckerberg’s Palo Alto house, or the Élysée Palace, in Paris, he’ll put a long finger to his chin and quietly answer questions about Neanderthals, self-driving cars, and the series finale of “Game of Thrones.” Harari’s publishing and speaking interests now occupy a staff of twelve, who work out of a sunny office in Tel Aviv, where an employee from Peru cooks everyone vegan lunches. Here, one can learn details of a scheduled graphic novel of “Sapiens”—a cartoon version of Harari, wearing wire-framed glasses and looking a little balder than in life, pops up here and there, across time and space. There are also plans for a “Sapiens” children’s book, and a multi-season “Sapiens”-inspired TV drama, covering sixty thousand years, with a script by the co-writer of Mel Gibson’s “Apocalypto.”\r\nHarari seldom goes to this office. He works at the home he shares with Itzik Yahav, his husband, who is also his agent and manager. They live in a village of expensive modern houses, half an hour inland from Tel Aviv, at a spot where Israel’s coastal plain is first interrupted by hills. The location gives a view of half the country and, hazily, the Mediterranean beyond. Below the house are the ruins of the once mighty Canaanite city of Gezer; Harari and Yahav walk their dog there. Their swimming pool is blob-shaped and, at night, lit a vivid mauve… Asked to consider his husband’s current place in world affairs, Yahav estimated that Harari was “between Madonna and Steven Pinker.””\r\nIf there is a problem with Harari’s work, it is this: Harari is long on bold predictions (eg. “Those who will control the world in the twenty-first century are those who will control data.” He also said that Homo sapiens would likely disappear, in a tech-driven upgrade.”) but short on what can be practically done to make things better (eg. “Harari has the ear of decision-makers; he travels the world to show them PowerPoint slides depicting mountains of trash and unemployed hordes. But, like a fiery street preacher unable to recommend one faith over another, he concludes with a policy shrug. Harari emphasizes that the public should press politicians to respond to tech threats, but when I asked what that response should be he said, “I don’t know what the answer is. I don’t think it will come from me. Even if I took three years off, and just immersed myself in some cave of books and meditation, I don’t think I would emerge with the answer.””) But therein lies the appeal of the man – in a world littered with jingoistic politicians touting easy solutions to complex problems, here is a pop intellectual saying that perhaps most of our problems don’t have any solutions.', 'Yuval Noah Harari’s History of Everyone, Ever', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'yuval-noah-hararis-history-of-everyone-ever', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:34:12', '2020-02-24 04:34:12', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2939', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2940, 1, '2020-02-24 04:34:12', '2020-02-24 04:34:12', 'For a historian to be profiled in a 10,000 word article in the New Yorker, which is arguably the world’s best magazine, he/she has to be pretty special. Most people who have read Yuval Noah Harari’s books will argue that he is pretty special. This profile tells you more about this unique man.\r\nThe piece first gives you the backstory behind Harari’s global bestseller “Sapiens”, the sort of book which you read once and remember for the rest of your life: “In 2008, Yuval Noah Harari, a young historian at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, began to write a book derived from an undergraduate world-history class that he was teaching. Twenty lectures became twenty chapters. Harari, who had previously written about aspects of medieval and early-modern warfare—but whose intellectual appetite, since childhood, had been for all-encompassing accounts of the world—wrote in plain, short sentences that displayed no anxiety about the academic decorum of a study spanning hundreds of thousands of years. It was a history of everyone, ever. The book, published in Hebrew as “A Brief History of Humankind,” became an Israeli best-seller; then, as “Sapiens,” it became an international one. Readers were offered the vertiginous pleasure of acquiring apparent mastery of all human affairs—evolution, agriculture, economics—while watching their personal narratives, even their national narratives, shrink to a point of invisibility. President Barack Obama, speaking to CNN in 2016, compared the book to a visit he’d made to the pyramids of Giza.”\r\nIn the decade following Sapiens, Harari published two other well received books (one of which deprived our book “Coffee Can Investing” of the “2018 Book of Year” prize from Amazon.in): “Harari…has spent the years since the publication of “Sapiens” in conversations about this cliffhanger. His two subsequent best-sellers—“Homo Deus” (2017) and “21 Lessons for the 21st Century” (2018)—focus on the present and the near future. Harari now defines himself as both a historian and a philosopher. He dwells particularly on the possibility that biometric monitoring, coupled with advanced computing, will give corporations and governments access to more complete data about people—about their desires and liabilities—than people have about themselves. A life under such scrutiny, he said recently, is liable to become “one long, stressing job interview.”\r\nHarari’s fame, lifestyle and income are now commensurate to that of a rockstar. The New Yorker gives mortals like us glimpses into the life of this extraordinary man: “…when speaking at conferences where C.E.O.s meet public intellectuals, or visiting Mark Zuckerberg’s Palo Alto house, or the Élysée Palace, in Paris, he’ll put a long finger to his chin and quietly answer questions about Neanderthals, self-driving cars, and the series finale of “Game of Thrones.” Harari’s publishing and speaking interests now occupy a staff of twelve, who work out of a sunny office in Tel Aviv, where an employee from Peru cooks everyone vegan lunches. Here, one can learn details of a scheduled graphic novel of “Sapiens”—a cartoon version of Harari, wearing wire-framed glasses and looking a little balder than in life, pops up here and there, across time and space. There are also plans for a “Sapiens” children’s book, and a multi-season “Sapiens”-inspired TV drama, covering sixty thousand years, with a script by the co-writer of Mel Gibson’s “Apocalypto.”\r\nHarari seldom goes to this office. He works at the home he shares with Itzik Yahav, his husband, who is also his agent and manager. They live in a village of expensive modern houses, half an hour inland from Tel Aviv, at a spot where Israel’s coastal plain is first interrupted by hills. The location gives a view of half the country and, hazily, the Mediterranean beyond. Below the house are the ruins of the once mighty Canaanite city of Gezer; Harari and Yahav walk their dog there. Their swimming pool is blob-shaped and, at night, lit a vivid mauve… Asked to consider his husband’s current place in world affairs, Yahav estimated that Harari was “between Madonna and Steven Pinker.””\r\nIf there is a problem with Harari’s work, it is this: Harari is long on bold predictions (eg. “Those who will control the world in the twenty-first century are those who will control data.” He also said that Homo sapiens would likely disappear, in a tech-driven upgrade.”) but short on what can be practically done to make things better (eg. “Harari has the ear of decision-makers; he travels the world to show them PowerPoint slides depicting mountains of trash and unemployed hordes. But, like a fiery street preacher unable to recommend one faith over another, he concludes with a policy shrug. Harari emphasizes that the public should press politicians to respond to tech threats, but when I asked what that response should be he said, “I don’t know what the answer is. I don’t think it will come from me. Even if I took three years off, and just immersed myself in some cave of books and meditation, I don’t think I would emerge with the answer.””) But therein lies the appeal of the man – in a world littered with jingoistic politicians touting easy solutions to complex problems, here is a pop intellectual saying that perhaps most of our problems don’t have any solutions.', 'Yuval Noah Harari’s History of Everyone, Ever', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2939-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:34:12', '2020-02-24 04:34:12', '', 2939, 'https://marcellus.in/2939-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2941, 1, '2020-02-23 04:34:24', '2020-02-23 04:34:24', 'This is the remarkable story of how tequila began to be manufactured in India’s Deccan Plateau. The stuff is so authentic that it is indistinguishable from the real thing. <em>“In a quiet part of Goa on the west coast of India, three identical enamelled cups were perched on a bar. Each contained a clear alcohol. In one cup was a local Indian spirit. The other two had different brands of mezcal. This spirit is made from agave, a plant grown across a semi-arid swathe of Mexico, the best-known variant of which produces tequila. To judge the drinks, a veteran of boozy sabbaticals in Oaxaca, the spiritual home of all mezcals, sipped from each cup twice. He couldn’t identify the Indian impostor.”</em>\r\nSo, who is the hero behind this remarkable enterprise? <em>“Desmond Nazareth, a 62-year-old from Mumbai, has spent the past 20 years working to perfect an Indian equivalent to tequila and other mezcals. It is made from semi-wild agave, more than 16,000km from tequila’s cultural and legal home. A cartoon motif of Nazareth appears on a range of orange plastic screw-capped bottles labelled “Indian agave spirits” under the brand name DesmondJi or DJ. Though it is still a fairly small operation – some 13,000 cases, each containing nine-litres, were sold last year – demand is growing. The drinks are now available in a number of bars and shops…”</em>\r\nThe story behind how Nazareth started making tequila in India has the makings of a Bollywood blockbuster: <em>“In the 1980s Nazareth moved to America to study film-making. During this time he began making cocktails…The margarita was an indispensable part of his arsenal. But when he moved back to Mumbai in 2000, he found that the main ingredient for his drink of choice was both scarce and pricey.</em>\r\n<em>Nazareth had a hunch that the terroir of India’s semi-arid Deccan plateau might be similar to that of central Mexico. He knew that agave plants, brought by European colonists centuries ago, already criss-crossed the landscape.</em>\r\n<em>A good agave plant takes 10 to 12 years to mature. But mimicking the correct method of distilling is tricky. To make tequila, the barrel-shaped trunks of mature agave are pared-down, steamed and finally distilled in special copper stills. The right equipment isn’t sold outside Mexico. So, in 2007, Nazareth and his business partner went as sightseers to see how the experts did it. The pair were welcomed by producers in and around the town of Tequila, and took pictures of the machinery. When they returned to India, they commissioned steelmakers to make pressure chambers, guillotine-like cutters to slice up the agave hearts and distilling pots.</em>\r\n<em>Nazareth opened his factory in 2010. He built what he describes as “madness in the middle of nowhere”. The first thing you see as you approach the site in Andhra Pradesh in south-east India is a curious-looking water tower, built in the shape of a Martini glass. On a star-shaped plot, surrounded by fields, one man’s daydream has become India’s first craft distillery. The borders, which stretch to 2.5km, are planted high with manicured giant agave. Over the past decade, tens of thousands of their offspring have been propagated in the surrounding countryside.</em>\r\n<em>A neat cluster of buildings inside the perimeter is painted pink to match the granite hillside at sunset. Workers swing a long-handled version of an Indian sickle to first cut off its spiny leaves and hack down the agave, and then later to trim clean the agave hearts…Others load discarded biomass into a furnace. Technicians mind the towering, stainless-steel vats of agave juice. It ferments in one vat and is then moved over to the pot stills….</em> <em>Nazareth took on his first employee in 2007, now he has 32 people working for him.”</em>', 'Indian tequila: one man’s quest to perfect a national spirit', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'indian-tequila-one-mans-quest-to-perfect-a-national-spirit', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:38:05', '2020-02-24 04:38:05', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2941', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2942, 1, '2020-02-24 04:38:05', '2020-02-24 04:38:05', 'This is the remarkable story of how tequila began to be manufactured in India’s Deccan Plateau. The stuff is so authentic that it is indistinguishable from the real thing. <em>“In a quiet part of Goa on the west coast of India, three identical enamelled cups were perched on a bar. Each contained a clear alcohol. In one cup was a local Indian spirit. The other two had different brands of mezcal. This spirit is made from agave, a plant grown across a semi-arid swathe of Mexico, the best-known variant of which produces tequila. To judge the drinks, a veteran of boozy sabbaticals in Oaxaca, the spiritual home of all mezcals, sipped from each cup twice. He couldn’t identify the Indian impostor.”</em>\r\nSo, who is the hero behind this remarkable enterprise? <em>“Desmond Nazareth, a 62-year-old from Mumbai, has spent the past 20 years working to perfect an Indian equivalent to tequila and other mezcals. It is made from semi-wild agave, more than 16,000km from tequila’s cultural and legal home. A cartoon motif of Nazareth appears on a range of orange plastic screw-capped bottles labelled “Indian agave spirits” under the brand name DesmondJi or DJ. Though it is still a fairly small operation – some 13,000 cases, each containing nine-litres, were sold last year – demand is growing. The drinks are now available in a number of bars and shops…”</em>\r\nThe story behind how Nazareth started making tequila in India has the makings of a Bollywood blockbuster: <em>“In the 1980s Nazareth moved to America to study film-making. During this time he began making cocktails…The margarita was an indispensable part of his arsenal. But when he moved back to Mumbai in 2000, he found that the main ingredient for his drink of choice was both scarce and pricey.</em>\r\n<em>Nazareth had a hunch that the terroir of India’s semi-arid Deccan plateau might be similar to that of central Mexico. He knew that agave plants, brought by European colonists centuries ago, already criss-crossed the landscape.</em>\r\n<em>A good agave plant takes 10 to 12 years to mature. But mimicking the correct method of distilling is tricky. To make tequila, the barrel-shaped trunks of mature agave are pared-down, steamed and finally distilled in special copper stills. The right equipment isn’t sold outside Mexico. So, in 2007, Nazareth and his business partner went as sightseers to see how the experts did it. The pair were welcomed by producers in and around the town of Tequila, and took pictures of the machinery. When they returned to India, they commissioned steelmakers to make pressure chambers, guillotine-like cutters to slice up the agave hearts and distilling pots.</em>\r\n<em>Nazareth opened his factory in 2010. He built what he describes as “madness in the middle of nowhere”. The first thing you see as you approach the site in Andhra Pradesh in south-east India is a curious-looking water tower, built in the shape of a Martini glass. On a star-shaped plot, surrounded by fields, one man’s daydream has become India’s first craft distillery. The borders, which stretch to 2.5km, are planted high with manicured giant agave. Over the past decade, tens of thousands of their offspring have been propagated in the surrounding countryside.</em>\r\n<em>A neat cluster of buildings inside the perimeter is painted pink to match the granite hillside at sunset. Workers swing a long-handled version of an Indian sickle to first cut off its spiny leaves and hack down the agave, and then later to trim clean the agave hearts…Others load discarded biomass into a furnace. Technicians mind the towering, stainless-steel vats of agave juice. It ferments in one vat and is then moved over to the pot stills….</em> <em>Nazareth took on his first employee in 2007, now he has 32 people working for him.”</em>', 'Indian tequila: one man’s quest to perfect a national spirit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2941-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:38:05', '2020-02-24 04:38:05', '', 2941, 'https://marcellus.in/2941-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2943, 1, '2020-02-23 04:38:18', '2020-02-23 04:38:18', 'There have been proclamations about how value investing, at least value investing as we know it, is dead – such as this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=220bad89da&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D220bad89da%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFD9d3pM8Q755QfuIlPQMiFHYvUEA\">one</a> which tries to argue that value of companies  with innovative capabilities (say Tesla) that can have far reaching impact over a long period of time is simply hard to assess. Well this is not the first time we have heard that line of argument. Expectedly so, some of the gurus of value investing such as Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblatt whose funds have continued to underperform have come back strongly in defence of value investing (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=695afc4afc&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D695afc4afc%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4EWYxCJuTayjZFUSFPsByjDchjw\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f37ae7f676&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Df37ae7f676%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnUke9CwZwFXadAddFKi7C7N2wjw\">here</a>). They are joined by their quant cousins in support of why the value factor will bounce back – Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and Cliff Asness of AQR have been the most vocal of the lot. This piece by Cliff as he himself acknowledges as a piece of ‘quantitative whining’ laments about how the first two months of 2020 have been the most destructive start to the year for the value factor (whilst Tesla shares have more than doubled in the same period). He begins his rant by acknowledging that the value factor tends to be riskier in the short run and almost impossible to time.\r\n<em>“We certainly know that contrarian valuation-based factor timing tilts are low Sharpe ratio strategies (very low short-term, somewhat better medium- to long-term) that are rarely immediately rewarded (few have such timing luck).”</em>\r\nBut just how bad is value’s underperformance this year compared to history?\r\n<em>“Take the Russell 1000 Growth and Value series starting in 1991. We consider this a pretty simplistic form of value investing, but it captures the core concept and is widely followed. From January 1st until February 13th of 2020 the cumulative daily return difference between the two is -6.4% (take a guess which one of the two was worse). Comparing this period to all rolling periods of the same number of days going back to 1991, this difference falls below the 3rd percentile. Of course, that includes such famous events as the technology bubble of 1998-2000 and the GFC of 2008-2009. If you only look at 2010 to today, this is the zeroth percentile event. That is, in a decade quite bad for value investing, the start of 2020 is the absolute worst 6-week period.</em>\r\n<em>Doing the same comparison among small stocks (Russell 2000 value vs. growth) from 1993 onward yields nearly identical results. Now, if we use Fama and French’s HML (using AQR data as Ken doesn’t update fast enough for this!), it’s a bit more extreme. This 6-week period falls below the first percentile since 1963 and, of course, is the worst such period since the value drawdown began a decade ago.”</em>\r\nWhilst he doesn’t quite believe that value pain is as exacerbated as during the tech bubble, he does see signs and recommends loads of patience as no one knows WHEN the mean reversion would come:\r\n<em>“I have been a pooh-pooher (if that’s not a word, it should be) of some who compare this current value pain to the tech bubble. We have found value spreads are quite wide today, but not tech-bubble wide. Though I have to admit, while you don’t come to me for my feelings about markets.., I will say comparisons to the tech bubble, in terms of seeing more radical events (no more slow steady losses for value, now it’s very quick big ones!), and the widespread embracing by many of all the reasons (which they usually have never mentioned before) as to why value is never going to work again, are converting me. It’s getting very bubbly out there…</em>\r\n<em>Again, our plan is to do very little. That doesn’t mean we don’t question everything constantly (“doing very little” does not apply to research into what’s going on or trying, as we always are, to improve strategies). But, if that questioning doesn’t result in damning evidence (again, the paper by my colleagues is forthcoming!), it means sticking with the process.</em>\r\n<em>We’ve seen this movie before a few times and we know how, but definitely not when, it ends. We believe that sticking with the process is the only way to achieve the long-term gains we seek (and which won’t always be provided by a long-only market that continues to levitate). We also know that sticking with something that’s good through its occasional very bad times, and even acting as a contrarian when others are finding newly created (and creative) reasons to throw in the towel, is very difficult.</em>\r\n<em>But this very difficulty is a large part of why we believe it’s long-term rewarded, and much harder to arbitrage away than some seem to think. As they say, if something were easy, everyone would do it.”</em>\r\nAnd amidst all this, the world’s greatest quant fund has been raking it on its Tesla position (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a540068543&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da540068543%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGS8EeHP0g8yYudVrAiWO4msIOExQ\">here</a>)', 'Never Has a Venial Sin Been Punished This Quickly and Violently!', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'never-has-a-venial-sin-been-punished-this-quickly-and-violently', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:39:51', '2020-02-24 04:39:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2943', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2944, 1, '2020-02-24 04:39:51', '2020-02-24 04:39:51', 'There have been proclamations about how value investing, at least value investing as we know it, is dead – such as this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=220bad89da&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D220bad89da%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFD9d3pM8Q755QfuIlPQMiFHYvUEA\">one</a> which tries to argue that value of companies  with innovative capabilities (say Tesla) that can have far reaching impact over a long period of time is simply hard to assess. Well this is not the first time we have heard that line of argument. Expectedly so, some of the gurus of value investing such as Seth Klarman and Joel Greenblatt whose funds have continued to underperform have come back strongly in defence of value investing (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=695afc4afc&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D695afc4afc%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG4EWYxCJuTayjZFUSFPsByjDchjw\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f37ae7f676&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Df37ae7f676%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnUke9CwZwFXadAddFKi7C7N2wjw\">here</a>). They are joined by their quant cousins in support of why the value factor will bounce back – Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates and Cliff Asness of AQR have been the most vocal of the lot. This piece by Cliff as he himself acknowledges as a piece of ‘quantitative whining’ laments about how the first two months of 2020 have been the most destructive start to the year for the value factor (whilst Tesla shares have more than doubled in the same period). He begins his rant by acknowledging that the value factor tends to be riskier in the short run and almost impossible to time.\r\n<em>“We certainly know that contrarian valuation-based factor timing tilts are low Sharpe ratio strategies (very low short-term, somewhat better medium- to long-term) that are rarely immediately rewarded (few have such timing luck).”</em>\r\nBut just how bad is value’s underperformance this year compared to history?\r\n<em>“Take the Russell 1000 Growth and Value series starting in 1991. We consider this a pretty simplistic form of value investing, but it captures the core concept and is widely followed. From January 1st until February 13th of 2020 the cumulative daily return difference between the two is -6.4% (take a guess which one of the two was worse). Comparing this period to all rolling periods of the same number of days going back to 1991, this difference falls below the 3rd percentile. Of course, that includes such famous events as the technology bubble of 1998-2000 and the GFC of 2008-2009. If you only look at 2010 to today, this is the zeroth percentile event. That is, in a decade quite bad for value investing, the start of 2020 is the absolute worst 6-week period.</em>\r\n<em>Doing the same comparison among small stocks (Russell 2000 value vs. growth) from 1993 onward yields nearly identical results. Now, if we use Fama and French’s HML (using AQR data as Ken doesn’t update fast enough for this!), it’s a bit more extreme. This 6-week period falls below the first percentile since 1963 and, of course, is the worst such period since the value drawdown began a decade ago.”</em>\r\nWhilst he doesn’t quite believe that value pain is as exacerbated as during the tech bubble, he does see signs and recommends loads of patience as no one knows WHEN the mean reversion would come:\r\n<em>“I have been a pooh-pooher (if that’s not a word, it should be) of some who compare this current value pain to the tech bubble. We have found value spreads are quite wide today, but not tech-bubble wide. Though I have to admit, while you don’t come to me for my feelings about markets.., I will say comparisons to the tech bubble, in terms of seeing more radical events (no more slow steady losses for value, now it’s very quick big ones!), and the widespread embracing by many of all the reasons (which they usually have never mentioned before) as to why value is never going to work again, are converting me. It’s getting very bubbly out there…</em>\r\n<em>Again, our plan is to do very little. That doesn’t mean we don’t question everything constantly (“doing very little” does not apply to research into what’s going on or trying, as we always are, to improve strategies). But, if that questioning doesn’t result in damning evidence (again, the paper by my colleagues is forthcoming!), it means sticking with the process.</em>\r\n<em>We’ve seen this movie before a few times and we know how, but definitely not when, it ends. We believe that sticking with the process is the only way to achieve the long-term gains we seek (and which won’t always be provided by a long-only market that continues to levitate). We also know that sticking with something that’s good through its occasional very bad times, and even acting as a contrarian when others are finding newly created (and creative) reasons to throw in the towel, is very difficult.</em>\r\n<em>But this very difficulty is a large part of why we believe it’s long-term rewarded, and much harder to arbitrage away than some seem to think. As they say, if something were easy, everyone would do it.”</em>\r\nAnd amidst all this, the world’s greatest quant fund has been raking it on its Tesla position (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a540068543&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da540068543%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGS8EeHP0g8yYudVrAiWO4msIOExQ\">here</a>)', 'Never Has a Venial Sin Been Punished This Quickly and Violently!', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2943-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:39:51', '2020-02-24 04:39:51', '', 2943, 'https://marcellus.in/2943-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2945, 1, '2020-02-23 04:40:12', '2020-02-23 04:40:12', 'At Marcellus, we have <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7f4e291479&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D7f4e291479%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFU7Uog3H6rfIKsbdG9k7yvCPvjZQ\">written</a> about the formalisation of the economy driven by GST among other factors and the resulting consolidation of industry into a few large players at the expense of the small and medium enterprise sector. This piece in the Outlook Business takes a look at the fate of the Foundry industry in Coimbatore known for serving the needs of the thriving textiles sector originally and then eventually the automobile sector. The city is known for its myriad micro SME\'s, which are now suffering the burden of GST, its compliance and the consequent rise in working capital, all at a time when end demand has slowed down.\r\n<em>“Foundries are central to the city’s economy but, for the past decade, they have been dealing with one spanner thrown in after another. Earlier, it was the power cuts and shortages, then came a crackdown by the state pollution control board and then a new taxation system. Ezhil says that the first is a thing of the past and the second has largely been dealt with, but the third — Goods and Services Tax — remains heavily taxing. On one hand, GST has driven up prices of inputs and their products.</em>\r\n<em>The taxation policy has businesses tangled up in red tape. Senthil Kumar, founder of Bluemount Castings, says compliance requirements have pushed companies, especially the MSMEs to the brink. “I’m a mechanical engineer, but operate like a chartered accountant. I’m constantly wondering which returns to pay on which day, and in the process, get little time to help my company innovate,” he says. He claims that his business, which caters to clients such as BHEL, KSB Pumps and tractor builders, has been hit by 30% at the very least.</em>\r\n<em>The micro-scale enterprises are most likely to face the pinch, according to S Soundara Rajan. He started with a single lathe (tool that rotates a workpiece) when he co-founded Falcon Toolings, and today, he employs 260 people who work on 60 machines. “Larger companies have entire departments to take care of filing GST and compliance. The smaller ventures in Coimbatore simply cannot afford such privileges. They are largely a one-man-show with a technocrat at the helm,” he says.</em>\r\n<em>An entrepreneur, who wishes to remain anonymous, laments how he had to go to the office on a Sunday to check if his supplier had filed their sales data on the GSTN portal. You can claim input tax credit (ITC, or discount on tax to be paid on sales) only for services from suppliers who have filed their sales data on or before the 12th of every month. Any delay on the suppliers’ part holds up the claim-and-refund process by a month for everyone upstream. On the 12th of every month, the GSTN portal allows you to check who among your suppliers has completed the process and, in January, 12th fell on a Sunday. “With the current system, the work of the government officials has been shifted to the tax-payers,” says the entrepreneur.</em>\r\n<em>Falcon Toolings’ Rajan believes that the GST system also robs smaller enterprises of opportunities. “A big company thinks twice about giving job orders to a young, promising company that has no GST number,” says Rajan. When you rope in a subcontractor, a smaller player usually, you pay a tax on the job work, which is work applied on another person’s work, such as welding or painting. Without a GST number, a subcontractor cannot issue you a valid receipt to claim input tax credit.</em>\r\n<em>Job work itself has become more expensive. Under the value-added tax regime, it attracted zero tax provided that you accounted for the payment done for it. As per GST norms, it was taxed at 18% till it was brought down to 12% through petitioning by Coimbatore District Small Industries Association (CODISSIA) under the leadership of its current president, R Ramamurthy. The attempt now is to bring it down to 5%.</em>\r\n<em>Foundries now face higher bills, which come more frequently than the paychecks. “One needs to file the 28% GST amount within 45 days of delivering a service, while payment cycles of corporates are typically 60 days. It holds up the working capital,”</em>', 'How to put out a bright spark', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-put-out-a-bright-spark', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:41:59', '2020-02-24 04:41:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2945', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2946, 1, '2020-02-24 04:41:59', '2020-02-24 04:41:59', 'At Marcellus, we have <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7f4e291479&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D7f4e291479%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFU7Uog3H6rfIKsbdG9k7yvCPvjZQ\">written</a> about the formalisation of the economy driven by GST among other factors and the resulting consolidation of industry into a few large players at the expense of the small and medium enterprise sector. This piece in the Outlook Business takes a look at the fate of the Foundry industry in Coimbatore known for serving the needs of the thriving textiles sector originally and then eventually the automobile sector. The city is known for its myriad micro SME\'s, which are now suffering the burden of GST, its compliance and the consequent rise in working capital, all at a time when end demand has slowed down.\r\n<em>“Foundries are central to the city’s economy but, for the past decade, they have been dealing with one spanner thrown in after another. Earlier, it was the power cuts and shortages, then came a crackdown by the state pollution control board and then a new taxation system. Ezhil says that the first is a thing of the past and the second has largely been dealt with, but the third — Goods and Services Tax — remains heavily taxing. On one hand, GST has driven up prices of inputs and their products.</em>\r\n<em>The taxation policy has businesses tangled up in red tape. Senthil Kumar, founder of Bluemount Castings, says compliance requirements have pushed companies, especially the MSMEs to the brink. “I’m a mechanical engineer, but operate like a chartered accountant. I’m constantly wondering which returns to pay on which day, and in the process, get little time to help my company innovate,” he says. He claims that his business, which caters to clients such as BHEL, KSB Pumps and tractor builders, has been hit by 30% at the very least.</em>\r\n<em>The micro-scale enterprises are most likely to face the pinch, according to S Soundara Rajan. He started with a single lathe (tool that rotates a workpiece) when he co-founded Falcon Toolings, and today, he employs 260 people who work on 60 machines. “Larger companies have entire departments to take care of filing GST and compliance. The smaller ventures in Coimbatore simply cannot afford such privileges. They are largely a one-man-show with a technocrat at the helm,” he says.</em>\r\n<em>An entrepreneur, who wishes to remain anonymous, laments how he had to go to the office on a Sunday to check if his supplier had filed their sales data on the GSTN portal. You can claim input tax credit (ITC, or discount on tax to be paid on sales) only for services from suppliers who have filed their sales data on or before the 12th of every month. Any delay on the suppliers’ part holds up the claim-and-refund process by a month for everyone upstream. On the 12th of every month, the GSTN portal allows you to check who among your suppliers has completed the process and, in January, 12th fell on a Sunday. “With the current system, the work of the government officials has been shifted to the tax-payers,” says the entrepreneur.</em>\r\n<em>Falcon Toolings’ Rajan believes that the GST system also robs smaller enterprises of opportunities. “A big company thinks twice about giving job orders to a young, promising company that has no GST number,” says Rajan. When you rope in a subcontractor, a smaller player usually, you pay a tax on the job work, which is work applied on another person’s work, such as welding or painting. Without a GST number, a subcontractor cannot issue you a valid receipt to claim input tax credit.</em>\r\n<em>Job work itself has become more expensive. Under the value-added tax regime, it attracted zero tax provided that you accounted for the payment done for it. As per GST norms, it was taxed at 18% till it was brought down to 12% through petitioning by Coimbatore District Small Industries Association (CODISSIA) under the leadership of its current president, R Ramamurthy. The attempt now is to bring it down to 5%.</em>\r\n<em>Foundries now face higher bills, which come more frequently than the paychecks. “One needs to file the 28% GST amount within 45 days of delivering a service, while payment cycles of corporates are typically 60 days. It holds up the working capital,”</em>', 'How to put out a bright spark', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2945-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:41:59', '2020-02-24 04:41:59', '', 2945, 'https://marcellus.in/2945-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2947, 1, '2020-02-23 04:42:09', '2020-02-23 04:42:09', 'An oft touched upon subject in 3L-3S is that of an inclusive capitalism, which goes beyond just serving the owners of capital, the lack of which has been one of the key drivers of income and wealth inequalities that the world is witnessing today. This piece by Dani Rodrik delves on the why’s and how’s of the subject in the context of corporate governance where the firm must go beyond the interests of shareholders and serve the interests of workers and society at large. Indeed, he posits that workers and societies are as much ‘invested’ in the firm as investors.\r\n<em>“The conventional theory under which our contemporary economies operate is that firms are governed by – or on behalf of – investors. This theory posits a clear separation between owners and employees – between capital and labor. Investors own the firm and they must make all the relevant decisions. Even where this is impractical, as in larger firms with multiple investors, the presumption is that managers are “agents” of the investors – and of investors alone.</em>\r\n<em>This theory of the firm rests on two fictions. First, investors are the only ones “invested” in the firm, and hence the only ones taking risks. Second, markets are competitive and frictionless, so that workers (and others closely affected by firms’ decisions, such as suppliers) can leave and go elsewhere if they do not like how a particular firm treats them.</em>\r\n<em>In reality, a job is much more than a source of income. It is a crucial part of an adult’s personal and social identity. The relationships workers build and the community they acquire on the job give them purpose and help define who they are. Jobs provide workers with not just material utility, but also expressive utility. The terms of employment determine not just how much we can afford to buy, but our sense of ourselves and the extent to which our aspirations and potential are fulfilled. This is why losing a job often delivers a severe shock to our overall life satisfaction.</em>\r\n<em>If markets were hyper-competitive and frictionless, and if information were perfect, none of this would matter much. Workers would enter complete contracts with investors (or their agents), taking all these considerations into account. Workers would sort themselves among firms, choosing to work for firms that give them the best combination of material benefits and expressive value. But in the real world, such complete contracts are not possible and imperfect competition is the norm, giving firms inordinate power to shape the lives of their workers.”</em>', 'New Firms for a New Era', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'new-firms-for-a-new-era', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:43:27', '2020-02-24 04:43:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2947', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2948, 1, '2020-02-24 04:43:27', '2020-02-24 04:43:27', 'An oft touched upon subject in 3L-3S is that of an inclusive capitalism, which goes beyond just serving the owners of capital, the lack of which has been one of the key drivers of income and wealth inequalities that the world is witnessing today. This piece by Dani Rodrik delves on the why’s and how’s of the subject in the context of corporate governance where the firm must go beyond the interests of shareholders and serve the interests of workers and society at large. Indeed, he posits that workers and societies are as much ‘invested’ in the firm as investors.\r\n<em>“The conventional theory under which our contemporary economies operate is that firms are governed by – or on behalf of – investors. This theory posits a clear separation between owners and employees – between capital and labor. Investors own the firm and they must make all the relevant decisions. Even where this is impractical, as in larger firms with multiple investors, the presumption is that managers are “agents” of the investors – and of investors alone.</em>\r\n<em>This theory of the firm rests on two fictions. First, investors are the only ones “invested” in the firm, and hence the only ones taking risks. Second, markets are competitive and frictionless, so that workers (and others closely affected by firms’ decisions, such as suppliers) can leave and go elsewhere if they do not like how a particular firm treats them.</em>\r\n<em>In reality, a job is much more than a source of income. It is a crucial part of an adult’s personal and social identity. The relationships workers build and the community they acquire on the job give them purpose and help define who they are. Jobs provide workers with not just material utility, but also expressive utility. The terms of employment determine not just how much we can afford to buy, but our sense of ourselves and the extent to which our aspirations and potential are fulfilled. This is why losing a job often delivers a severe shock to our overall life satisfaction.</em>\r\n<em>If markets were hyper-competitive and frictionless, and if information were perfect, none of this would matter much. Workers would enter complete contracts with investors (or their agents), taking all these considerations into account. Workers would sort themselves among firms, choosing to work for firms that give them the best combination of material benefits and expressive value. But in the real world, such complete contracts are not possible and imperfect competition is the norm, giving firms inordinate power to shape the lives of their workers.”</em>', 'New Firms for a New Era', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2947-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:43:27', '2020-02-24 04:43:27', '', 2947, 'https://marcellus.in/2947-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2949, 1, '2020-02-23 04:43:36', '2020-02-23 04:43:36', 'Steve Jobs is believed to have famously said how he wouldn’t let his kids use the iPad or smartphones in general. Coming from the man who created it, he very well knew how destructively addictive these gadgets could get. This article talks about the many ways that the smartphone addiction of today is becoming fatal for many - from causing accidents on the road to mental depression. The effects can be even more catastrophic on teenagers given hormonal activity which facilitates all types of addiction. <em>“This is “like giving them cocaine or heroin”, according to David Gillespie, the author of Teen Brain – Why Screens Are Making Your Teenager Depressed, Anxious And Prone to Lifelong Addictive Illnesses – And How to Stop it Now.</em>”\r\nYou can access our own <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b647f1007c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db647f1007c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH0OuLTpKBuZRyS7qvlOrdoHiE6Dw\">blog</a> on the subject focussed on instilling deep work as a route to success, which is made hard by the smartphone addiction which tends shorten attention spans.\r\n<em>“The most obvious example is all the people who are killed on our roads, not just because they were the ones stupidly looking at their phones while driving – Australians now believe it is the main reason for our rising road toll, with 32% of drivers admitting to reading text messages while driving, according to the Community Attitudes to Road Safety 2013 Survey Report – but because they ambled, zombie-like, into traffic while posting on Instagram.</em>\r\n<em>The number of pedestrians killed on US roads has risen by a staggering 51% since 2009. In 2017, pedestrian fatalities in Australia jumped by 20% in a year, with police blaming the stupidity of smartphones.</em>\r\n<em>If you haven’t noticed the number of people who try to cross roads while ignoring the approach of big heavy vehicles in favour of their tiny screens, it’s probably because you’ve been looking at your phone.</em>\r\n<em>….According to a study by a tracking app called Moment, the average American spends four hours a day staring at their phone. Unfortunately, not all the information our screens give us is positive, and when we’re getting, instead, irate emails from colleagues, for example, or other bad news, our bodies release cortisol, our fight-or-flight hormone.</em>\r\n<em>Cortisol is designed to prime your body to react to physical threats – such as bears, or bullies – and it changes your body physically, upping your heart rate, frizzing your adrenaline and spiking your blood sugar. Unfortunately, your body also responds with cortisol when you’re being stressed emotionally. And smartphones can provide you with these moments, wherever you are, multiple times per hour.</em>\r\n<em>“Your cortisol levels are elevated when your phone is in sight or nearby, or when you hear it or even think you hear it,” says David Greenfield, the founder of the Center for Internet and Technology Addiction.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s a stress response, and it feels unpleasant, and the body’s natural response is to want to check the phone to make the stress go away.” Checking the phone, of course, can just provide more bad news and thus you can get into a cycle that leaves you with chronically high levels of cortisol. And this can lead to all kinds of health issues, including heart attacks, dementia, diabetes and depression.”</em>', 'The everyday device in your home killing hundreds around the globe', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-everyday-device-in-your-home-killing-hundreds-around-the-globe', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:47:02', '2020-02-24 04:47:02', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2949', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2950, 1, '2020-02-24 04:47:02', '2020-02-24 04:47:02', 'Steve Jobs is believed to have famously said how he wouldn’t let his kids use the iPad or smartphones in general. Coming from the man who created it, he very well knew how destructively addictive these gadgets could get. This article talks about the many ways that the smartphone addiction of today is becoming fatal for many - from causing accidents on the road to mental depression. The effects can be even more catastrophic on teenagers given hormonal activity which facilitates all types of addiction. <em>“This is “like giving them cocaine or heroin”, according to David Gillespie, the author of Teen Brain – Why Screens Are Making Your Teenager Depressed, Anxious And Prone to Lifelong Addictive Illnesses – And How to Stop it Now.</em>”\r\nYou can access our own <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b647f1007c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db647f1007c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582603667359000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH0OuLTpKBuZRyS7qvlOrdoHiE6Dw\">blog</a> on the subject focussed on instilling deep work as a route to success, which is made hard by the smartphone addiction which tends shorten attention spans.\r\n<em>“The most obvious example is all the people who are killed on our roads, not just because they were the ones stupidly looking at their phones while driving – Australians now believe it is the main reason for our rising road toll, with 32% of drivers admitting to reading text messages while driving, according to the Community Attitudes to Road Safety 2013 Survey Report – but because they ambled, zombie-like, into traffic while posting on Instagram.</em>\r\n<em>The number of pedestrians killed on US roads has risen by a staggering 51% since 2009. In 2017, pedestrian fatalities in Australia jumped by 20% in a year, with police blaming the stupidity of smartphones.</em>\r\n<em>If you haven’t noticed the number of people who try to cross roads while ignoring the approach of big heavy vehicles in favour of their tiny screens, it’s probably because you’ve been looking at your phone.</em>\r\n<em>….According to a study by a tracking app called Moment, the average American spends four hours a day staring at their phone. Unfortunately, not all the information our screens give us is positive, and when we’re getting, instead, irate emails from colleagues, for example, or other bad news, our bodies release cortisol, our fight-or-flight hormone.</em>\r\n<em>Cortisol is designed to prime your body to react to physical threats – such as bears, or bullies – and it changes your body physically, upping your heart rate, frizzing your adrenaline and spiking your blood sugar. Unfortunately, your body also responds with cortisol when you’re being stressed emotionally. And smartphones can provide you with these moments, wherever you are, multiple times per hour.</em>\r\n<em>“Your cortisol levels are elevated when your phone is in sight or nearby, or when you hear it or even think you hear it,” says David Greenfield, the founder of the Center for Internet and Technology Addiction.</em>\r\n<em>“It’s a stress response, and it feels unpleasant, and the body’s natural response is to want to check the phone to make the stress go away.” Checking the phone, of course, can just provide more bad news and thus you can get into a cycle that leaves you with chronically high levels of cortisol. And this can lead to all kinds of health issues, including heart attacks, dementia, diabetes and depression.”</em>', 'The everyday device in your home killing hundreds around the globe', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2949-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:47:02', '2020-02-24 04:47:02', '', 2949, 'https://marcellus.in/2949-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2951, 1, '2020-02-24 04:49:13', '2020-02-24 04:49:13', '', 'IMG_1399', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'img_1399', '', '', '2020-02-24 04:49:13', '2020-02-24 04:49:13', '', 669, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/IMG_1399.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(2952, 1, '2020-02-26 11:57:44', '2020-02-26 11:57:44', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>The P/E multiple of a stock has ZERO ability when it comes to explaining future share price movements in India. The same is applicable for P/B and EV/EBITDA multiples. In contrast, Free Cash Flow (FCF) growth explains nearly 60% of the movement in the share prices of BSE100 companies. Coming to terms with this counterintuitive fact is central to successful investing in the Indian stock market.</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>“Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns six percent on capital over forty years and you hold it for that forty years, you’re not going to make much different than a six percent return — even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns eighteen percent on capital over twenty or thirty years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with one hell of a result.” </em>– <strong>Charlie Munger</strong> in “The Art of Stock Picking” (2013) [Source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=233f5cb293&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D233f5cb293%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582804028247000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGBKEobK1jEc4a7kK_phjD_5yDEww\">http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Charlie-Munger-Art-of-Stock-Picking.pdf</a>]</p>\r\n<strong>The “fundamentalists” at Marcellus</strong>\r\nOver the past couple of years, we have reiterated time and again the folly of using P/E multiples as a gauge of which stocks one should invest in. For example, in a recent newsletter for our small cap Little Champs Portfolio, we said that: <em>“The last 10 years clearly indicate that the best performing small cap stocks have been those which have generated the highest earnings growth as well as the highest return on capital employed (ROCE). For instance, as shown in the charts below, for both the time periods FY09-14 and FY14-19, the companies which delivered the highest PBT growth also ended up delivering the highest share price returns.”</em> (Source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d24663ebcb&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd24663ebcb%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582804028247000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFkFTuji8KNZmyolFTizBixMWIcyw\">https://marcellus.in/newsletter/little-champs/quality-trumps-cheap-valuations-comprehensively/</a>)\r\n\r\nMore provocatively, in our July 2019 newsletter for a our Consistent Compounders Portfolio we explained that: <em>“A weak franchise trading at 10x P/E multiple appears cheap, when its fair value P/E might actually be 5x. On the other hand, a consistent compounder trading at 50x appears expensive, when its fair value P/E could be higher than 100x. Conviction on the ability of a firm to deliver sustainable competitive advantage (represented by ROCE) as well as growth (which requires capital reinvestment) is often underappreciated in a P/E multiples based valuation methodology.”</em> In fact, in that newsletter we demonstrated that, in 1994 Nestle’s fair valuation P/E multiple was 290x! (Source: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=435c401a62&amp;e=5648501957\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D435c401a62%26e%3D5648501957&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582804028247000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5-_OisOZhO8MIwXCwcGhVkI7yjA\">https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/valuing-longevity-of-healthy-fundamentals/</a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>The futility of P/E multiple based investing</strong>\r\nIn this note, we assess the relative power of a variety of metrics which explain stock price movements. In the three charts shown below we have illustrated the ability of three different fundamental metrics – revenue growth, profit growth and Free Cash Flow (hereafter called FCF) growth – to explain stock prices of the BSE100 constituents over the last 10 years.\r\n\r\nAs you can see from the charts, whilst revenue growth can explain only 14% of the stock price movement seen over the past decade, profit growth can explain a healthy 48% of the stock price movement. But the star of the show is FCF growth – it can explain nearly 60% of the movement in BSE100 stock prices over the past decade. That is truly extraordinary and it suggests that amongst all fundamental metrics FCF growth is by far the biggest driver of shareholder value.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2953 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Capture.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"579\" height=\"265\" /><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2957 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/image-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"584\" height=\"287\" />\r\n\r\nSo what is FCF? Technically speaking it is the operating cashflow that a company generates less the monies that it spends on investing in property, plant, equipment and other assets that it acquires. The formula for FCF we have used is “Operating cash flow - (Capex+ Advances for capex) - Investment in subsidiaries &amp; intercorporate deposits”. In plain English, FCF is a true measure of how much money a company makes after paying not just for its expenses but also paying for various assets &amp; equipment that it needs to run the show.\r\n\r\nIn contrast to the potency of FCF growth in explaining stock price movements, it is worth seeing a visual illustration of how useless P/E multiples are when it comes to explaining stock price movement – P/E explains around 0% of the movement in stock prices. (No that is not a typo. It is 0%.) In plain English, whether BSE100 constituents’ share prices rose or fell over the past decade had NOTHING to do with the P/E multiples of these stocks. If you want to see how useless P/E, P/B and EV/EBITDA multiples are in India over horizons such as 1 year, 3, 5 and 10 years, please refer to Appendix 5 of our bestselling book <em>“Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth”</em> (2018).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2955 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"571\" height=\"326\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>The God-like simulation</strong>\r\nSince we know the FCF of the BSE100 constituents over the past 10 years, we can pretend that we are sitting in Mumbai in March 2008 and with God-like prescience forecast FCF over the next 10 years. Armed with these FCF forecasts, we then use a discount rate of 15% to calculate the Present Value (PV) of these free cashflows as in March 2008. That gives us PV of FCF. Using this metric, we calculate P/ PV of FCF for each of the BSE100 constituents. Now, we can test whether this new God-like metric is better than P/E multiples in explaining stock price movements.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2956 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/image4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"569\" height=\"315\" />\r\n\r\nAs shown in the chart above, P/PV of FCF explains 9% of the movement in BSE100 stock prices over the past decade. Since 9% is &gt; 0%, P/ PV of FCF appears to have greater potency than P/E multiples in explaining stock price movements. However, the relative impotence of P/ PV of FCF (compared to a metric like FCF growth) underscores the insignificance of stock prices in forecasting future stock price movements. This counterintuitive fact seems to confound many investors in the Indian stock market – they simply cannot understand why the stock price of a company today tells you next to nothing about how the company’s stock price will perform going forward.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nAs highlighted in the quote from Charlie Munger at the beginning of the note, how much money an investor will make from an investment depends fundamentally on one thing and one thing alone – what is the Return on Capital generated by the investee company. If the company’s pretax ROCE is below 15% (which is the case for just over a third of the BSE100 constituents in FY19), it will be very difficult for an investor to generate a healthy return from buying shares in such a company EVEN IF THE P/E OF THE COMPANY IS LOW. Conversely, as Mr Munger explains, if we buy shares in, say, Pidilite – a company with a pretax ROCE of 34% in FY19 – we are likely to make a very healthy return from the investment EVEN IF PIDILITE’s P/E IS OPTICALLY HIGH. [By the way, the point made here for Pidilite is equally applicable to a stock like ITC which hasn’t in recent years enjoyed as stellar a share price run as Pidilite.]\r\n\r\nFCF growth captures this aspect of investment success far better than P/E does because FCF is nothing more than ROCE less the cost of capital. Therefore, healthy growth in FCF necessarily implies equally healthy growth in ROCE. That is why, as shown in Exhibit 2, FCF growth is able to explain nearly 60% of the change in the share prices of BSE100 constituents.\r\n\r\nFor those investors who prefer focusing on a stock’s share price or P/E multiples for long term investment returns, our submission would be that at the very least they should switch to P/ PV of FCF rather than focusing on P/E multiples.\r\n\r\n(Disclosure: Please note that Pidilite and ITC are held in most of Marcellus’ portfolios)\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Deven Kulkarni are Founder and Analyst respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bd84d4853d&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dbd84d4853d%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1582803894618000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH0TRx33GbPc6yb9BvUIZp-TPtw7w\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>).</em>', 'The Stock Price of a Company Tells You Nothing Useful', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-stock-price-of-a-company-tells-you-nothing-useful', '', '', '2020-02-26 12:07:45', '2020-02-26 12:07:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=2952', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(2959, 1, '2020-03-01 08:27:18', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'The performance of Marcellus’ CCP portfolio over the past 12 months has been fully supported by fundamentals. The CCP stocks have seen more than 30% YoY growth in profits during 3QFY20 and 9MFY20 vs 28% portfolio performance since 1st April 2020. In fact, CCP stocks have seen more than 20% annualized growth in profits over FY17-20 and over FY15-20. This is predominantly due to accelerated market share gains in a difficult economic environment over the past five years. Moreover, recent regulatory changes like corporate tax rate cut and GST, are creating a ‘snowball effect’ for the earnings growth of our portfolio companies, which has not yet been adequately factored into their valuations.\nPerformance update – as on 29th February 2020\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.', 'CCP’s performance in FY20 fully supported by earnings growth', '', 'draft', 'closed', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2020-03-01 08:27:18', '2020-03-01 08:27:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2959', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(2966, 1, '2020-03-01 05:27:07', '2020-03-01 05:27:07', 'This blog is based on a book called <em>“The Path to Purpose: How Young People Find Their Calling in Life”</em> by William Damon, one of America’s leading writers on the lives of young people. Judging by the blurb on the book on Amazon.com, the book itself is the result of an extensive study of young Americans’ lives. The blogger, Eric Barker, uses material from the book to hammer home a useful point:<em> “These days kids have limitless options — and no clear answers. A world with a stifling lack of opportunities has become a paralyzing flood of possibility. (Be careful what you wish for, eh?) We don’t want to go back to the old way but we did create a void that we need to fill. It’s hardly surprising that levels of anxiety and depression are far higher among young people these days. They have no idea what they want.”</em>\r\nMany of us raise kids so that they can go to a good university and get a prestigious degree and then an equally prestigious job so that they can live in an expensive flat in an upmarket neighbourhood and drink low fat lattes all their lives. Unsurprisingly, most of our kids don’t really care for this vision that we might have of their chino-clad, Powerpoint infused futures. So how can we do a better job of visioning for our kids? Eric presents us with a 3-step solution:\r\nPart 1 is to “Fan the Flames” i.e. <em>“Every kid has interests. Start noticing. Be open-minded and supportive. Listen. Be a sounding board. Don’t judge. Encourage. Fan the flame.</em>\r\n<em>It is very very not-hard to get young people to talk about what they love. Be a Socratic coach, drawing out their thoughts and helping to slowly weave them into next steps and plans.</em>\r\n<em>Take advantage of organic opportunities to open a dialogue. When the news is on, ask kids what they think about issues, about what is right and what is wrong, about what is important and what is not. Start slow at first but you can circle closer and closer over time toward:</em>\r\n<em>What’s most important to you in life?</em>\r\n<em>Why do you care about those things?</em>\r\n<em>What does it mean to have a good life?</em>\r\n<em>What does it mean to be a good person?</em>\r\n<em>Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to help them explore possibilities and derive goals from the instincts they already feel.”</em>\r\nIf you are not feeling stressed enough by now, you can move on to part 2 which is to “Convey The Meaning You Get From Your Work”. This can be tricky if you hate your job. However, assuming you don’t: <em>“Talk to your kids about the purpose and meaning you get from your job. Children need to understand what it is you do and that it fulfills a personal sense of purpose — not just pays the bills. What makes you feel good about your job? What gives you pride in what you do? Again, you don’t have to be curing cancer. How does what you do in some very small way make the world a better place, contribute to the common good or just make someone else happy?”</em>\r\nPart 3 sounds a lot of more do-able: “Introduce Them To Mentors”. Basically, find smart, emotionally intelligent friends and foist your children upon them. <em>“You might not be able to explain to them what it’s like to be a surgeon — but your friend the doctor can.</em>\r\n<em>This might sound like a simple “good idea” but it’s more than that. In Damon’s study of young people he found a number of kids that were highly purposeful. Most of them didn’t have mentors outside the home. Nope… They all did. Every single one of them.”</em>', 'How To Help Your Kids Find Their Calling In Life: 4 Secrets From Research', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-help-your-kids-find-their-calling-in-life-4-secrets-from-research', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:40:25', '2020-03-02 05:40:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2966', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(2967, 1, '2020-03-02 05:29:45', '2020-03-02 05:29:45', 'This blog is based on a book called <em>“The Path to Purpose: How Young People Find Their Calling in Life”</em> by William Damon, one of America’s leading writers on the lives of young people. Judging by the blurb on the book on Amazon.com, the book itself is the result of an extensive study of young Americans’ lives. The blogger, Eric Barker, uses material from the book to hammer home a useful point:<em> “These days kids have limitless options — and no clear answers. A world with a stifling lack of opportunities has become a paralyzing flood of possibility. (Be careful what you wish for, eh?) We don’t want to go back to the old way but we did create a void that we need to fill. It’s hardly surprising that levels of anxiety and depression are far higher among young people these days. They have no idea what they want.”</em>\r\nMany of us raise kids so that they can go to a good university and get a prestigious degree and then an equally prestigious job so that they can live in an expensive flat in an upmarket neighbourhood and drink low fat lattes all their lives. Unsurprisingly, most of our kids don’t really care for this vision that we might have of their chino-clad, Powerpoint infused futures. So how can we do a better job of visioning for our kids? Eric presents us with a 3-step solution:\r\nPart 1 is to “Fan the Flames” i.e. <em>“Every kid has interests. Start noticing. Be open-minded and supportive. Listen. Be a sounding board. Don’t judge. Encourage. Fan the flame.</em>\r\n<em>It is very very not-hard to get young people to talk about what they love. Be a Socratic coach, drawing out their thoughts and helping to slowly weave them into next steps and plans.</em>\r\n<em>Take advantage of organic opportunities to open a dialogue. When the news is on, ask kids what they think about issues, about what is right and what is wrong, about what is important and what is not. Start slow at first but you can circle closer and closer over time toward:</em>\r\n<em>What’s most important to you in life?</em>\r\n<em>Why do you care about those things?</em>\r\n<em>What does it mean to have a good life?</em>\r\n<em>What does it mean to be a good person?</em>\r\n<em>Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to help them explore possibilities and derive goals from the instincts they already feel.”</em>\r\nIf you are not feeling stressed enough by now, you can move on to part 2 which is to “Convey The Meaning You Get From Your Work”. This can be tricky if you hate your job. However, assuming you don’t: <em>“Talk to your kids about the purpose and meaning you get from your job. Children need to understand what it is you do and that it fulfills a personal sense of purpose — not just pays the bills. What makes you feel good about your job? What gives you pride in what you do? Again, you don’t have to be curing cancer. How does what you do in some very small way make the world a better place, contribute to the common good or just make someone else happy?”</em>\r\nPart 3 sounds a lot of more do-able: “Introduce Them To Mentors”. Basically, find smart, emotionally intelligent friends and foist your children upon them. <em>“You might not be able to explain to them what it’s like to be a surgeon — but your friend the doctor can.</em>\r\n<em>This might sound like a simple “good idea” but it’s more than that. In Damon’s study of young people he found a number of kids that were highly purposeful. Most of them didn’t have mentors outside the home. Nope… They all did. Every single one of them.”</em>', 'How To Help Your Kids Find Their Calling In Life: 4 Secrets From Research', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2966-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:29:45', '2020-03-02 05:29:45', '', 2966, 'https://marcellus.in/2966-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2968, 1, '2020-03-01 05:29:58', '2020-03-01 05:29:58', 'Given our idiosyncratic style of investing, we have become accustomed to people giving us a bit of stick for how we think, write and invest. Life simply wouldn’t be as interesting without such criticism. Hence we always perk up when we come across investors elsewhere who also think and invest using methods which are off the beaten path. Here is one such investor who has been profiled by Bloomberg: <em>“Who is Cathie Wood? She’s already in the pantheon of top money handlers over any period in the past five years, and has been the most persuasive — and so far prescient — champion of Tesla Inc. Her actively managed Ark Innovation ETF is the best performer among 584 funds with at least $1 billion of assets in the global equity market, crushing the likes of BlackRock with a return of 165% (income plus appreciation) the past three years, and she beat 99% of them since Ark Investment Management LLC became a registered investment adviser in January 2014…”</em>\r\nOne of the things we have noticed is that joining the conventional clique of established investors (and thus wining &amp; dining with them) is a waste of time. Ms Woods too seems to be a non-establishment kind of person: <em>“You won’t find her at the Barron’s Roundtable, which “gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds.” She was included in the Bloomberg 50: The People Who Defined Global Business in 2018.”</em>\r\nMs Woods’ success highlights something that many people – including us – widely misunderstand – an ETF doesn’t necessarily have to be a passive stockpicker: <em>“Since its inception, Ark has earned almost 2.4 times more than the S&amp;P 500 and 1.7 times the Nasdaq, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At a point when money management mostly is a passive, index-driven business, Wood is a discerning stock picker with about $11 billion of assets. Her selection of health-care juggernauts Juno Therapeutics Inc., based in Seattle, and Invitae Corp., in San Francisco, returned 286% and 173%, respectively, in the past three years. Choosing Palo Alto-based Tesla and Buenos Aires-based MercadoLibre Inc. among consumer discretionary companies netted 185% and 269% in her fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We’re all about finding the next big thing,” said Wood…”</em>\r\nMost interestingly, going by the Bloomberg piece, Ms Woods’ success seems to be based on understanding her investee companies more than anyone else does. This seems to be particularly true of her position in Tesla: <em>“In 2016, when Tesla plummeted 11%, and 75% of the analyst recommendations opposed any purchases, Wood almost tripled her Tesla position to 5,072 shares. The following year, after Tesla appreciated 46%, and 68% of the analysts remained bearish, she enlarged her stake more than 13 times to 67,653 shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When Tesla rallied 26% last year amid tepid recommendations from 70% of the analysts, she almost doubled her stake to 471,594 shares. Tesla continued climbing this year — 91%, the best performer in the Nasdaq 100 index and No. 1 among the 500 most highly capitalized U.S. companies. Wood was a consistent seller during the rally — reducing her holding to 292,000 shares — solely to keep her Tesla stake at the designated maximum 10% of her fund.</em>\r\n<em>“If we hadn’t sold, Tesla would probably be well north of 20% in the portfolio,” she said during a phone interview last week. “Last year, we were buying aggressively when analysts were saying Tesla was going to run out of cash and go bankrupt.” Tesla still is “incredibly undervalued,” she said.</em>\r\n<em>That’s an opinion considered absurd by most analysts, who insist nothing justifies Tesla’s valuation at almost $150 billion, or 58% more than the market capitalization of global sales leader Volkswagen AG.</em>\r\n<em>On the contrary, says Wood, Tesla’s share of EV sales increased a percentage point to 18% when the so-called Tesla killers — from BYD Co. Ltd and BAIC Motor Corp. in China to Nissan Motor Co. in Japan and Volkswagen, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG…”</em>\r\n<em>Wood believes the legacy automakers will lose money on their EVs, while Tesla becomes increasingly profitable and remains years ahead of its rivals in battery and chip technology. The company also has 14 billion miles of real-world driving data. Its closest competitor, Waymo, has data on 20 million miles.”</em>', 'Cathie Wood, the Best Investor You’ve Never Heard Of', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'cathie-wood-the-best-investor-youve-never-heard-of', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:32:19', '2020-03-02 05:32:19', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2968', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2969, 1, '2020-03-02 05:32:19', '2020-03-02 05:32:19', 'Given our idiosyncratic style of investing, we have become accustomed to people giving us a bit of stick for how we think, write and invest. Life simply wouldn’t be as interesting without such criticism. Hence we always perk up when we come across investors elsewhere who also think and invest using methods which are off the beaten path. Here is one such investor who has been profiled by Bloomberg: <em>“Who is Cathie Wood? She’s already in the pantheon of top money handlers over any period in the past five years, and has been the most persuasive — and so far prescient — champion of Tesla Inc. Her actively managed Ark Innovation ETF is the best performer among 584 funds with at least $1 billion of assets in the global equity market, crushing the likes of BlackRock with a return of 165% (income plus appreciation) the past three years, and she beat 99% of them since Ark Investment Management LLC became a registered investment adviser in January 2014…”</em>\r\nOne of the things we have noticed is that joining the conventional clique of established investors (and thus wining &amp; dining with them) is a waste of time. Ms Woods too seems to be a non-establishment kind of person: <em>“You won’t find her at the Barron’s Roundtable, which “gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds.” She was included in the Bloomberg 50: The People Who Defined Global Business in 2018.”</em>\r\nMs Woods’ success highlights something that many people – including us – widely misunderstand – an ETF doesn’t necessarily have to be a passive stockpicker: <em>“Since its inception, Ark has earned almost 2.4 times more than the S&amp;P 500 and 1.7 times the Nasdaq, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. At a point when money management mostly is a passive, index-driven business, Wood is a discerning stock picker with about $11 billion of assets. Her selection of health-care juggernauts Juno Therapeutics Inc., based in Seattle, and Invitae Corp., in San Francisco, returned 286% and 173%, respectively, in the past three years. Choosing Palo Alto-based Tesla and Buenos Aires-based MercadoLibre Inc. among consumer discretionary companies netted 185% and 269% in her fund, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “We’re all about finding the next big thing,” said Wood…”</em>\r\nMost interestingly, going by the Bloomberg piece, Ms Woods’ success seems to be based on understanding her investee companies more than anyone else does. This seems to be particularly true of her position in Tesla: <em>“In 2016, when Tesla plummeted 11%, and 75% of the analyst recommendations opposed any purchases, Wood almost tripled her Tesla position to 5,072 shares. The following year, after Tesla appreciated 46%, and 68% of the analysts remained bearish, she enlarged her stake more than 13 times to 67,653 shares, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. When Tesla rallied 26% last year amid tepid recommendations from 70% of the analysts, she almost doubled her stake to 471,594 shares. Tesla continued climbing this year — 91%, the best performer in the Nasdaq 100 index and No. 1 among the 500 most highly capitalized U.S. companies. Wood was a consistent seller during the rally — reducing her holding to 292,000 shares — solely to keep her Tesla stake at the designated maximum 10% of her fund.</em>\r\n<em>“If we hadn’t sold, Tesla would probably be well north of 20% in the portfolio,” she said during a phone interview last week. “Last year, we were buying aggressively when analysts were saying Tesla was going to run out of cash and go bankrupt.” Tesla still is “incredibly undervalued,” she said.</em>\r\n<em>That’s an opinion considered absurd by most analysts, who insist nothing justifies Tesla’s valuation at almost $150 billion, or 58% more than the market capitalization of global sales leader Volkswagen AG.</em>\r\n<em>On the contrary, says Wood, Tesla’s share of EV sales increased a percentage point to 18% when the so-called Tesla killers — from BYD Co. Ltd and BAIC Motor Corp. in China to Nissan Motor Co. in Japan and Volkswagen, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG…”</em>\r\n<em>Wood believes the legacy automakers will lose money on their EVs, while Tesla becomes increasingly profitable and remains years ahead of its rivals in battery and chip technology. The company also has 14 billion miles of real-world driving data. Its closest competitor, Waymo, has data on 20 million miles.”</em>', 'Cathie Wood, the Best Investor You’ve Never Heard Of', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2968-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:32:19', '2020-03-02 05:32:19', '', 2968, 'https://marcellus.in/2968-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2970, 1, '2020-03-01 05:32:31', '2020-03-01 05:32:31', 'We often get asked by clients if we can take their lumpsum and deploy into x equal tranches over the next x weeks/months i.e, what is termed as ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’. Nick Maguilli of Ritholtz Wealth Management, in this blog supported by ample amounts of data driven analysis shows why you are better off deploying at one go as opposed to staggering it. The rationale is that whilst deploying at one go or staggering the investment both are random acts, in an upward trending asset class, a lumpsum increases the time for which the capital is at work. Using the S&amp;P500 between 1997-2020, he shows that a lumpsum investing approach outperforms the 24 month Dollar Cost Averaging approach 78% of the time with an average outperformance of 5%. Even more counter intuitively, he shows that this outperformance sustains even on a risk adjusted basis with a greater Sharpe ratio. However, as one would expect, the outperformance reduces for riskier assets which have higher volatilities as the probability of the stagger picking up lower entry points grows. Indeed, for our Consistent Compounders strategy with significantly lower volatility, a lumpsum investment would outperform a staggered deployment most of the times. Of course, this doesn’t refer to the Dollar Cost Averaging or Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) as commonly known in India where periodic cash inflows (such as salaries) are automatically channelised into an asset class – those would be more systematic savings plan as opposed to a staggered deployment strategy that the blog is referring to.', 'Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'dollar-cost-averaging-vs-lump-sum-the-definitive-guide', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:44:26', '2020-03-02 05:44:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2970', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2971, 1, '2020-03-02 05:33:49', '2020-03-02 05:33:49', 'We often get asked by clients if we can take their lumpsum and deploy into x equal tranches over the next x weeks/months i.e, what is termed as ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’. Nick Maguilli of Ritholtz Wealth Management, in this blog supported by ample amounts of data driven analysis shows why you are better off deploying at one go as opposed to staggering it. The rationale is that whilst deploying at one go or staggering the investment both are random acts, in an upward trending asset class, a lumpsum increases the time for which the capital is at work. Using the S&amp;P500 between 1997-2020, he shows that a lumpsum investing approach outperforms the 24 month Dollar Cost Averaging approach 78% of the time with an average outperformance of 5%. Even more counter intuitively, he shows that this outperformance sustains even on a risk adjusted basis with a greater Sharpe ratio. However, as one would expect, the outperformance reduces for riskier assets which have higher volatilities as the probability of the stagger picking up lower entry points grows. Indeed, for our Consistent Compounders strategy with significantly lower volatility, a lumpsum investment would outperform a staggered deployment most of the times. Of course, this doesn’t refer to the Dollar Cost Averaging or Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) as commonly known in India where periodic cash inflows (such as salaries) are automatically channelised into an asset class – those would be more systematic savings plan as opposed to a staggered deployment strategy that the blog is referring to.', 'Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2970-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:33:49', '2020-03-02 05:33:49', '', 2970, 'https://marcellus.in/2970-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2972, 1, '2020-03-01 05:34:35', '2020-03-01 05:34:35', 'Fund managers often attain star status after a period of strong outperformance. Indeed, it helps the asset management company’s cause to support that status as it helps its fund-raising campaigns. Given much of the asset management business is now mostly an asset gathering exercise, this is understandable. However, this article focuses on the sustainability of performance (or lack there of) of the \'star\' fund manager, especially in the context of recent comparisons with sports stars. The author first shows data that highlights the lack of persistency in fund performance which questions the sustainability of the fund manager’s stardom.\r\n<em>“Fund management doesn’t conform to the rules of sport. It just doesn’t.</em>\r\n<em>Take the English Premier League, for example. Yes, there are notable “black swan” events — Leicester City winning the league in 2016 being the most recent example — but you can normally predict at the start of each season at least three or four of the teams that will finish in the top six.</em>\r\n<em>Fund performance bears no resemblance to that at all. As the Persistence Scorecard produced by S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices illustrates time and again, returns appear to be completely random. The March 2019 scorecard, for example, showed that, of the 498 US-domiciled funds that finished in the top quartile over the five-year period ending March 2014, only 16.1% managed to repeat that performance over the five-year period ending March 2019. We would expect 25% to do so from random chance alone. On the other hand, 31.5% of the top-quartile funds fell into the fourth quartile — more than would be randomly expected to do so.</em>\r\n<em>The equivalent, in football parlance, is Manchester City winning the title one year, then finishing 16th, 7th, 14th and 3rd in the following four seasons, and then getting relegated.”</em>\r\nThen he goes onto identifying possible reasons for the lack of sustainability in performance:\r\n<em>“There are several possible explanations for why outperforming fund managers tend to fizzle out. One is that, as they become more popular and attract more clients, the size of the fund grows. They consequently have to broaden their range of stocks, thereby diluting their best ideas. A second explanation is that a “style” of investing that helps a particular manager to outperform for a period of time simply stops working.</em>\r\n<em>But surely the most plausible explanation is that it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish luck from skill in active money management. When you watch a top football team action, their natural ability is plain for all to see. Yes, luck will always play a part — strange refereeing decisions, for example, or injuries to key players. But, over the course of a season, it’s easy to see why a team like Liverpool will finish higher than a team like my own (let’s not go there, all we?)”</em>\r\nThe author brings up another dissimilarity with sports stars – which is that the best of sportsmen compete with their peers individually where as the fund manager competes with the collective wisdom of the market, especially given increasingly limited information asymmetry.\r\n<em>“The scale of the task fund managers face is brilliantly explained by Larry Swedroe in his book, The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, by way of a tennis analogy.</em>\r\n<em>At the height of his powers, says Swedroe, Roger Federer was the greatest tennis player of his era. That was despite Andy Roddick having a better serve, Andy Murray a better backhand, Rafael Nadal a better baseline game and so on.</em>\r\n<em>Yet while Federer’s opponents were other tennis players, fund managers are attempting to outwit a far more formidable opponent, namely the collective wisdom of the entire market. Wherever they turn, they’re constantly competing with fellow managers who are very good at whatever it is they specialise in.</em>\r\n<em>As Swedroe says, it’s as if each time Federer stepped on court he faced an opponent with Roddick’s serve, Murray’s backhand and Nadal’s skill at the baseline. If that had been the case he may not have won a single tournament.”</em>', 'Fund managers are not like sports stars (but don\'t tell them)', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'fund-managers-are-not-like-sports-stars-but-dont-tell-them', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:49:13', '2020-03-02 05:49:13', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2972', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2973, 1, '2020-03-02 05:35:59', '2020-03-02 05:35:59', 'Fund managers often attain star status after a period of strong outperformance. Indeed, it helps the asset management company’s cause to support that status as it helps its fund-raising campaigns. Given much of the asset management business is now mostly an asset gathering exercise, this is understandable. However, this article focuses on the sustainability of performance (or lack there of) of the \'star\' fund manager, especially in the context of recent comparisons with sports stars. The author first shows data that highlights the lack of persistency in fund performance which questions the sustainability of the fund manager’s stardom.\r\n<em>“Fund management doesn’t conform to the rules of sport. It just doesn’t.</em>\r\n<em>Take the English Premier League, for example. Yes, there are notable “black swan” events — Leicester City winning the league in 2016 being the most recent example — but you can normally predict at the start of each season at least three or four of the teams that will finish in the top six.</em>\r\n<em>Fund performance bears no resemblance to that at all. As the Persistence Scorecard produced by S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices illustrates time and again, returns appear to be completely random. The March 2019 scorecard, for example, showed that, of the 498 US-domiciled funds that finished in the top quartile over the five-year period ending March 2014, only 16.1% managed to repeat that performance over the five-year period ending March 2019. We would expect 25% to do so from random chance alone. On the other hand, 31.5% of the top-quartile funds fell into the fourth quartile — more than would be randomly expected to do so.</em>\r\n<em>The equivalent, in football parlance, is Manchester City winning the title one year, then finishing 16th, 7th, 14th and 3rd in the following four seasons, and then getting relegated.”</em>\r\nThen he goes onto identifying possible reasons for the lack of sustainability in performance:\r\n<em>“There are several possible explanations for why outperforming fund managers tend to fizzle out. One is that, as they become more popular and attract more clients, the size of the fund grows. They consequently have to broaden their range of stocks, thereby diluting their best ideas. A second explanation is that a “style” of investing that helps a particular manager to outperform for a period of time simply stops working.</em>\r\n<em>But surely the most plausible explanation is that it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish luck from skill in active money management. When you watch a top football team action, their natural ability is plain for all to see. Yes, luck will always play a part — strange refereeing decisions, for example, or injuries to key players. But, over the course of a season, it’s easy to see why a team like Liverpool will finish higher than a team like my own (let’s not go there, all we?)”</em>\r\nThe author brings up another dissimilarity with sports stars – which is that the best of sportsmen compete with their peers individually where as the fund manager competes with the collective wisdom of the market, especially given increasingly limited information asymmetry.\r\n<em>“The scale of the task fund managers face is brilliantly explained by Larry Swedroe in his book, The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, by way of a tennis analogy.</em>\r\n<em>At the height of his powers, says Swedroe, Roger Federer was the greatest tennis player of his era. That was despite Andy Roddick having a better serve, Andy Murray a better backhand, Rafael Nadal a better baseline game and so on.</em>\r\n<em>Yet while Federer’s opponents were other tennis players, fund managers are attempting to outwit a far more formidable opponent, namely the collective wisdom of the entire market. Wherever they turn, they’re constantly competing with fellow managers who are very good at whatever it is they specialise in.</em>\r\n<em>As Swedroe says, it’s as if each time Federer stepped on court he faced an opponent with Roddick’s serve, Murray’s backhand and Nadal’s skill at the baseline. If that had been the case he may not have won a single tournament.”</em>', 'Fund managers are not like sports stars (but don\'t tell them)', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2972-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:35:59', '2020-03-02 05:35:59', '', 2972, 'https://marcellus.in/2972-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2974, 1, '2020-03-01 05:36:11', '2020-03-01 05:36:11', 'The fascinating world of espionage has inspired many authors and film makers alike over the years and continue to enthral us with works of fiction. But the real world stories of spies have an added layer of thrill to it. This piece in the Economist talks about the instances where spies have infiltrated regular business corporations in pursuit of their mission (including one spy who worked as The Economist’s journalist). Not just infiltrating as employees, the article highlights entire corporations with legitimate business activities set up for espionage. In this context, in an increasingly data driven world, the west’s fears of the Chinese telecom company, Huawei as a means for Chinese espionage efforts may not be without reason.\r\n<em>“..Crypto AG, a Swiss company that rose to dominate the global market for cipher machines after the second world war. By the 1990s it was apparent that the firm was in bed with the National Security Agency (NSA), America’s eavesdroppers. The truth, it turns out, was even more remarkable. From 1970 to the 2000s, at least, Crypto AG was wholly owned by the CIA and, until 1993, the BND, Germany’s spy agency, according to the Washington Post. “It was the intelligence coup of the century,” crowed a CIA report. “Foreign governments were paying good money…for the privilege of having their most secret communications read.”</em>\r\n<em>The history of intelligence is littered with such front companies, used to collect intelligence or carry out covert skulduggery. “Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare”, a forthcoming book by Thomas Rid, describes how the CIA seed-funded and controlled a printing house in Berlin in the 1950s to spread propaganda in the Soviet bloc. It published political pamphlets and news magazines, forged and real, as well as a lonely-hearts newsletter, a women’s magazine, and even publications devoted to astrology and jazz. It was one of many publishing houses and publications around the world that were covertly subsidised by the CIA and KGB to spread influence.</em>\r\n<em>Some fake firms have been devilishly crafty. In the 1970s, at the height of the Troubles, the British Army established a brothel and launderette in Belfast. Not only could soldiers use laundry vans to move around discreetly, but IRA suspects’ clothes could be tested for explosive residue (both operations were eventually exposed and shot up). MI6 similarly operated a bogus travel agency that would lure republicans to Spain with free holidays, where they could be recruited as double agents. In the 1980s Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, ran a Sudanese beach resort that was used to smuggle out thousands of Jews from neighbouring Ethiopia.”</em>', 'Spies often use businesses as cover', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'spies-often-use-businesses-as-cover', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:47:55', '2020-03-02 05:47:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2974', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2975, 1, '2020-03-02 05:37:29', '2020-03-02 05:37:29', 'The fascinating world of espionage has inspired many authors and film makers alike over the years and continue to enthral us with works of fiction. But the real world stories of spies have an added layer of thrill to it. This piece in the Economist talks about the instances where spies have infiltrated regular business corporations in pursuit of their mission (including one spy who worked as The Economist’s journalist). Not just infiltrating as employees, the article highlights entire corporations with legitimate business activities set up for espionage. In this context, in an increasingly data driven world, the west’s fears of the Chinese telecom company, Huawei as a means for Chinese espionage efforts may not be without reason.\r\n<em>“..Crypto AG, a Swiss company that rose to dominate the global market for cipher machines after the second world war. By the 1990s it was apparent that the firm was in bed with the National Security Agency (NSA), America’s eavesdroppers. The truth, it turns out, was even more remarkable. From 1970 to the 2000s, at least, Crypto AG was wholly owned by the CIA and, until 1993, the BND, Germany’s spy agency, according to the Washington Post. “It was the intelligence coup of the century,” crowed a CIA report. “Foreign governments were paying good money…for the privilege of having their most secret communications read.”</em>\r\n<em>The history of intelligence is littered with such front companies, used to collect intelligence or carry out covert skulduggery. “Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare”, a forthcoming book by Thomas Rid, describes how the CIA seed-funded and controlled a printing house in Berlin in the 1950s to spread propaganda in the Soviet bloc. It published political pamphlets and news magazines, forged and real, as well as a lonely-hearts newsletter, a women’s magazine, and even publications devoted to astrology and jazz. It was one of many publishing houses and publications around the world that were covertly subsidised by the CIA and KGB to spread influence.</em>\r\n<em>Some fake firms have been devilishly crafty. In the 1970s, at the height of the Troubles, the British Army established a brothel and launderette in Belfast. Not only could soldiers use laundry vans to move around discreetly, but IRA suspects’ clothes could be tested for explosive residue (both operations were eventually exposed and shot up). MI6 similarly operated a bogus travel agency that would lure republicans to Spain with free holidays, where they could be recruited as double agents. In the 1980s Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, ran a Sudanese beach resort that was used to smuggle out thousands of Jews from neighbouring Ethiopia.”</em>', 'Spies often use businesses as cover', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2974-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:37:29', '2020-03-02 05:37:29', '', 2974, 'https://marcellus.in/2974-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2976, 1, '2020-03-01 05:37:39', '2020-03-01 05:37:39', 'At a time when newsflow associated with religion has been rather acerbic, here is a refreshing piece about how religion as a means to fight one of the gravest problems facing humanity – climate change. The Parliament of World Religions (PoWR), a global forum for inter-faith interactions, is driving discourse around climate change and committing to using religious tools to fight the issue.\r\n<em>“In May 2019, the PoWR launched The Climate Commitments Project, aimed at “committing to a low carbon world\". It enables proactive faith-based agents of change to network, document and access support from organizations such as Buddhist Global Relief, EcoSikh, Center for Earth Ethics, Govardhan Ecovillage, and The Arthur Vining Davis Foundations.</em>\r\n<em>…“The Sikh faith is well-aligned to nature, and several shabads in the Guru Granth Sahib prove this. For example, in this shabad that says ‘Air is the Guru, Water is the Father, and Earth is the Great Mother of all’, the Granth Sahib tells us to consider nature as our teacher. Organizations like EcoSikh are known for their ardent commitment to the environment, but even in gurdwaras like the Harmandir Sahib in Amritsar, saplings are distributed as prasad…Baba Sewa Singh of the Khadur Sahib gurdwara received the Padma Shri in 2010 for planting 346,000 trees along 382km of roads and 400 villages in Punjab.</em>\r\n<em>…While religious organizations like EcoSikh and Iskcon have taken action only recently, the intellectual discipline relating environmentalism to religion has been taking shape from the late 1980s. Cross-disciplinary fields like eco theology, spiritual ecology and religious environmentalism have been delving into the academic frameworks of environmentalism and religion, ethics and ecology to locate these ideas in each.</em>\r\n<em>Universities have led research in this area by offering specialized courses. Bodies such as the Forum on Religion and Ecology at Yale and independent organization Alliance of Religions and Conservation (which shut in June 2019) have carried the narrative forward.</em>\r\n<em>In his book, Islam And The Plight Of The Modern Man, (Seyyed Hossein) Nasr noted that “the environmental crisis is fundamentally a crisis of values and that religions, being a primary source of values in any culture, are thus implicated in the decisions humans make regarding the environment\". As Nasr and Palmer have said, religion can be a compelling force in driving positive change and tackle the current climate crisis. Rooted deeply in social consciousness, religion is often a much stronger motivator in driving behavioural change than facts and figures. A careful selection of nature-centric scriptural messages, when delivered by a religious leader, can lead to the swift mobilization of a community.”</em>', 'Can religion fight climate change?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'can-religion-fight-climate-change', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:39:00', '2020-03-02 05:39:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=2976', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(2977, 1, '2020-03-02 05:39:00', '2020-03-02 05:39:00', 'At a time when newsflow associated with religion has been rather acerbic, here is a refreshing piece about how religion as a means to fight one of the gravest problems facing humanity – climate change. The Parliament of World Religions (PoWR), a global forum for inter-faith interactions, is driving discourse around climate change and committing to using religious tools to fight the issue.\r\n<em>“In May 2019, the PoWR launched The Climate Commitments Project, aimed at “committing to a low carbon world\". It enables proactive faith-based agents of change to network, document and access support from organizations such as Buddhist Global Relief, EcoSikh, Center for Earth Ethics, Govardhan Ecovillage, and The Arthur Vining Davis Foundations.</em>\r\n<em>…“The Sikh faith is well-aligned to nature, and several shabads in the Guru Granth Sahib prove this. For example, in this shabad that says ‘Air is the Guru, Water is the Father, and Earth is the Great Mother of all’, the Granth Sahib tells us to consider nature as our teacher. Organizations like EcoSikh are known for their ardent commitment to the environment, but even in gurdwaras like the Harmandir Sahib in Amritsar, saplings are distributed as prasad…Baba Sewa Singh of the Khadur Sahib gurdwara received the Padma Shri in 2010 for planting 346,000 trees along 382km of roads and 400 villages in Punjab.</em>\r\n<em>…While religious organizations like EcoSikh and Iskcon have taken action only recently, the intellectual discipline relating environmentalism to religion has been taking shape from the late 1980s. Cross-disciplinary fields like eco theology, spiritual ecology and religious environmentalism have been delving into the academic frameworks of environmentalism and religion, ethics and ecology to locate these ideas in each.</em>\r\n<em>Universities have led research in this area by offering specialized courses. Bodies such as the Forum on Religion and Ecology at Yale and independent organization Alliance of Religions and Conservation (which shut in June 2019) have carried the narrative forward.</em>\r\n<em>In his book, Islam And The Plight Of The Modern Man, (Seyyed Hossein) Nasr noted that “the environmental crisis is fundamentally a crisis of values and that religions, being a primary source of values in any culture, are thus implicated in the decisions humans make regarding the environment\". As Nasr and Palmer have said, religion can be a compelling force in driving positive change and tackle the current climate crisis. Rooted deeply in social consciousness, religion is often a much stronger motivator in driving behavioural change than facts and figures. A careful selection of nature-centric scriptural messages, when delivered by a religious leader, can lead to the swift mobilization of a community.”</em>', 'Can religion fight climate change?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2976-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:39:00', '2020-03-02 05:39:00', '', 2976, 'https://marcellus.in/2976-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2978, 1, '2020-03-02 05:42:27', '2020-03-02 05:42:27', 'We often get asked by clients if we can take their lumpsum and deploy into x equal tranches over the next x weeks/months i.e, what is termed as ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’. Nick Maguilli of Ritholtz Wealth Management, in this blog supported by ample amounts of data driven analysis shows why you are better off deploying at one go as opposed to staggering it. The rationale is that whilst deploying at one go or staggering the investment both are random acts, in an upward trending asset class, a lumpsum increases the time for which the capital is at work. Using the S&amp;P500 between 1997-2020, he shows that a lumpsum investing approach outperforms the 24 month Dollar Cost Averaging approach 78% of the time with an average outperformance of 5%. Even more counter intuitively, he shows that this outperformance sustains even on a risk adjusted basis with a greater Sharpe ratio. However, as one would expect, the outperformance reduces for riskier assets which have higher volatilities as the probability of the stagger picking up lower entry points grows. Indeed, for our Consistent Compounders strategy with significantly lower volatility, a lumpsum investment would outperform a staggered deployment most of the times. Of course, this doesn’t refer to the Dollar Cost Averaging or Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) as commonly known in India where periodic cash inflows (such as salaries) are automatically channelised into an asset class – those would be more systematic savings plan as opposed to a staggered deployment strategy that the blog is referring to.', 'Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2970-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:42:27', '2020-03-02 05:42:27', '', 2970, 'https://marcellus.in/2970-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2979, 1, '2020-03-02 05:44:26', '2020-03-02 05:44:26', 'We often get asked by clients if we can take their lumpsum and deploy into x equal tranches over the next x weeks/months i.e, what is termed as ‘Dollar Cost Averaging’. Nick Maguilli of Ritholtz Wealth Management, in this blog supported by ample amounts of data driven analysis shows why you are better off deploying at one go as opposed to staggering it. The rationale is that whilst deploying at one go or staggering the investment both are random acts, in an upward trending asset class, a lumpsum increases the time for which the capital is at work. Using the S&amp;P500 between 1997-2020, he shows that a lumpsum investing approach outperforms the 24 month Dollar Cost Averaging approach 78% of the time with an average outperformance of 5%. Even more counter intuitively, he shows that this outperformance sustains even on a risk adjusted basis with a greater Sharpe ratio. However, as one would expect, the outperformance reduces for riskier assets which have higher volatilities as the probability of the stagger picking up lower entry points grows. Indeed, for our Consistent Compounders strategy with significantly lower volatility, a lumpsum investment would outperform a staggered deployment most of the times. Of course, this doesn’t refer to the Dollar Cost Averaging or Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) as commonly known in India where periodic cash inflows (such as salaries) are automatically channelised into an asset class – those would be more systematic savings plan as opposed to a staggered deployment strategy that the blog is referring to.', 'Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2970-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:44:26', '2020-03-02 05:44:26', '', 2970, 'https://marcellus.in/2970-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2980, 1, '2020-03-02 05:46:59', '2020-03-02 05:46:59', 'The fascinating world of espionage has inspired many authors and film makers alike over the years and continue to enthral us with works of fiction. But the real world stories of spies have an added layer of thrill to it. This piece in the Economist talks about the instances where spies have infiltrated regular business corporations in pursuit of their mission (including one spy who worked as The Economist’s journalist). Not just infiltrating as employees, the article highlights entire corporations with legitimate business activities set up for espionage. In this context, in an increasingly data driven world, the west’s fears of the Chinese telecom company, Huawei as a means for Chinese espionage efforts may not be without reason.\n<em>“..Crypto AG, a Swiss company that rose to dominate the global market for cipher machines after the second world war. By the 1990s it was apparent that the firm was in bed with the National Security Agency (NSA), America’s eavesdroppers. The truth, it turns out, was even more remarkable. From 1970 to the 2000s, at least, Crypto AG was wholly owned by the CIA and, until 1993, the BND, Germany’s spy agency, according to the Washington Post. “It was the intelligence coup of the century,” crowed a CIA report. “Foreign governments were paying good money…for the privilege of having their most secret communications read.”</em>\n<em>The history of intelligence is littered with such front companies, used to collect intelligence or carry out covert skulduggery. “Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare”, a forthcoming book by Thomas Rid, describes how the CIA seed-funded and controlled a printing house in Berlin in the 1950s to spread propaganda in the Soviet bloc. It published political pamphlets and news magazines, forged and real, as well as a lonely-hearts newsletter, a women’s magazine, and even publications devoted to astrology and jazz. It was one of many publishing houses and publications around the world that were covertly subsidised by the CIA and KGB to spread influence.</em>\n<em>Some fake firms have been devilishly crafty. In the 1970s, at the height of the Troubles, the British Army established a brothel and launderette in Belfast. Not only could soldiers use laundry vans to move around discreetly, but IRA suspects’ clothes could be tested for explosive residue (both operations were eventually exposed and shot up). MI6 similarly operated a bogus travel agency that would lure republicans to Spain with free holidays, where they could be recruited as double agents. In the 1980s Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, ran a Sudanese beach resort that was used to smuggle out thousands of Jews from neighbouring Ethiopia.”</em>', 'Spies often use businesses as cover', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2974-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:46:59', '2020-03-02 05:46:59', '', 2974, 'https://marcellus.in/2974-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2981, 1, '2020-03-02 05:47:55', '2020-03-02 05:47:55', 'The fascinating world of espionage has inspired many authors and film makers alike over the years and continue to enthral us with works of fiction. But the real world stories of spies have an added layer of thrill to it. This piece in the Economist talks about the instances where spies have infiltrated regular business corporations in pursuit of their mission (including one spy who worked as The Economist’s journalist). Not just infiltrating as employees, the article highlights entire corporations with legitimate business activities set up for espionage. In this context, in an increasingly data driven world, the west’s fears of the Chinese telecom company, Huawei as a means for Chinese espionage efforts may not be without reason.\r\n<em>“..Crypto AG, a Swiss company that rose to dominate the global market for cipher machines after the second world war. By the 1990s it was apparent that the firm was in bed with the National Security Agency (NSA), America’s eavesdroppers. The truth, it turns out, was even more remarkable. From 1970 to the 2000s, at least, Crypto AG was wholly owned by the CIA and, until 1993, the BND, Germany’s spy agency, according to the Washington Post. “It was the intelligence coup of the century,” crowed a CIA report. “Foreign governments were paying good money…for the privilege of having their most secret communications read.”</em>\r\n<em>The history of intelligence is littered with such front companies, used to collect intelligence or carry out covert skulduggery. “Active Measures: The Secret History of Disinformation and Political Warfare”, a forthcoming book by Thomas Rid, describes how the CIA seed-funded and controlled a printing house in Berlin in the 1950s to spread propaganda in the Soviet bloc. It published political pamphlets and news magazines, forged and real, as well as a lonely-hearts newsletter, a women’s magazine, and even publications devoted to astrology and jazz. It was one of many publishing houses and publications around the world that were covertly subsidised by the CIA and KGB to spread influence.</em>\r\n<em>Some fake firms have been devilishly crafty. In the 1970s, at the height of the Troubles, the British Army established a brothel and launderette in Belfast. Not only could soldiers use laundry vans to move around discreetly, but IRA suspects’ clothes could be tested for explosive residue (both operations were eventually exposed and shot up). MI6 similarly operated a bogus travel agency that would lure republicans to Spain with free holidays, where they could be recruited as double agents. In the 1980s Mossad, Israel’s spy agency, ran a Sudanese beach resort that was used to smuggle out thousands of Jews from neighbouring Ethiopia.”</em>', 'Spies often use businesses as cover', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2974-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:47:55', '2020-03-02 05:47:55', '', 2974, 'https://marcellus.in/2974-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(2982, 1, '2020-03-02 05:49:13', '2020-03-02 05:49:13', 'Fund managers often attain star status after a period of strong outperformance. Indeed, it helps the asset management company’s cause to support that status as it helps its fund-raising campaigns. Given much of the asset management business is now mostly an asset gathering exercise, this is understandable. However, this article focuses on the sustainability of performance (or lack there of) of the \'star\' fund manager, especially in the context of recent comparisons with sports stars. The author first shows data that highlights the lack of persistency in fund performance which questions the sustainability of the fund manager’s stardom.\r\n<em>“Fund management doesn’t conform to the rules of sport. It just doesn’t.</em>\r\n<em>Take the English Premier League, for example. Yes, there are notable “black swan” events — Leicester City winning the league in 2016 being the most recent example — but you can normally predict at the start of each season at least three or four of the teams that will finish in the top six.</em>\r\n<em>Fund performance bears no resemblance to that at all. As the Persistence Scorecard produced by S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices illustrates time and again, returns appear to be completely random. The March 2019 scorecard, for example, showed that, of the 498 US-domiciled funds that finished in the top quartile over the five-year period ending March 2014, only 16.1% managed to repeat that performance over the five-year period ending March 2019. We would expect 25% to do so from random chance alone. On the other hand, 31.5% of the top-quartile funds fell into the fourth quartile — more than would be randomly expected to do so.</em>\r\n<em>The equivalent, in football parlance, is Manchester City winning the title one year, then finishing 16th, 7th, 14th and 3rd in the following four seasons, and then getting relegated.”</em>\r\nThen he goes onto identifying possible reasons for the lack of sustainability in performance:\r\n<em>“There are several possible explanations for why outperforming fund managers tend to fizzle out. One is that, as they become more popular and attract more clients, the size of the fund grows. They consequently have to broaden their range of stocks, thereby diluting their best ideas. A second explanation is that a “style” of investing that helps a particular manager to outperform for a period of time simply stops working.</em>\r\n<em>But surely the most plausible explanation is that it’s extremely difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish luck from skill in active money management. When you watch a top football team action, their natural ability is plain for all to see. Yes, luck will always play a part — strange refereeing decisions, for example, or injuries to key players. But, over the course of a season, it’s easy to see why a team like Liverpool will finish higher than a team like my own (let’s not go there, all we?)”</em>\r\nThe author brings up another dissimilarity with sports stars – which is that the best of sportsmen compete with their peers individually where as the fund manager competes with the collective wisdom of the market, especially given increasingly limited information asymmetry.\r\n<em>“The scale of the task fund managers face is brilliantly explained by Larry Swedroe in his book, The Incredible Shrinking Alpha, by way of a tennis analogy.</em>\r\n<em>At the height of his powers, says Swedroe, Roger Federer was the greatest tennis player of his era. That was despite Andy Roddick having a better serve, Andy Murray a better backhand, Rafael Nadal a better baseline game and so on.</em>\r\n<em>Yet while Federer’s opponents were other tennis players, fund managers are attempting to outwit a far more formidable opponent, namely the collective wisdom of the entire market. Wherever they turn, they’re constantly competing with fellow managers who are very good at whatever it is they specialise in.</em>\r\n<em>As Swedroe says, it’s as if each time Federer stepped on court he faced an opponent with Roddick’s serve, Murray’s backhand and Nadal’s skill at the baseline. If that had been the case he may not have won a single tournament.”</em>', 'Fund managers are not like sports stars (but don\'t tell them)', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '2972-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-02 05:49:13', '2020-03-02 05:49:13', '', 2972, 'https://marcellus.in/2972-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(2983, 1, '2020-03-01 06:03:32', '2020-03-01 06:03:32', '<strong>The performance of Marcellus’ CCP portfolio over the past 12 months has been fully supported by fundamentals. The CCP stocks have seen more than 30% YoY growth in profits during 3QFY20 and 9MFY20 vs 28% portfolio performance since 1<sup>st</sup> April 2019. In fact, CCP stocks have seen more than 20% annualized growth in profits over FY17-20 and over FY15-20. This is predominantly due to accelerated market share gains in a difficult economic environment over the past five years. Moreover, recent regulatory changes like corporate tax rate cut and GST, are creating a ‘snowball effect’ for the earnings growth of our portfolio companies, which has not yet been adequately factored into their valuations.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 29<sup>th</sup> February 2020</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2990 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"657\" height=\"373\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>CCP Portfolio’s profits grew by more than 30% in FY20 and more than 20% CAGR over FY15-20, fully supporting the portfolio performance</strong>\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in our 6<sup>th</sup> Nov’19 blog (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/the-role-of-p-e-multiples-in-determining-investment-returns/\">click here</a>), the share price growth for any stock broadly mirrors its earnings (or cash flows) growth over the longer term. Another way to make the same statement is that in the equation of <strong><em>P = P/E * E</em></strong>, the compounding of the share price of a firm over the long run is solely dependent on compounding of its earnings, because the P/E multiple does not compound in the long run.\r\n\r\nOver the past five years, due to a tough macro-economic environment in India, earnings growth for the broader market has been subdued – the Nifty50 index has delivered only 3% earnings CAGR over FY15-20, 3% earnings CAGR over FY17-20, and only 7% YoY earnings growth in the first nine months of FY20 (i.e. 9MFY20). Hence, it is not surprising that Nifty50 Index has increased by only 6% CAGR over the past five years and delivered a -4% return since 1<sup>st</sup> April 2019.\r\n\r\nDespite such a weak external environment for the economy as well as for the stock market, the performance of our CCP Portfolio has been +28% since 1<sup>st</sup> April 2019 and our current model portfolio has delivered +24% share price CAGR over the past five years – see exhibit 2 below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2986 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"666\" height=\"440\" />\r\n\r\nThis portfolio performance over the past 1 year (approx. 30%) and over the past five years (over 20% CAGR) in a tough environment could optically cause concerns amongst investors around <strong><em>overvaluation</em></strong>. However, this portfolio performance (both in absolute terms and relative to the index) has been fully supported by equally robust fundamentals (<em>in fact the P/E multiple of our portfolio has dropped by ~5% vs what it was one year ago</em>). <strong>As shown in Exhibit 3 below, our portfolio has delivered earnings growth of over 30% YoY during FY20 and over 20% CAGR during the last five years.</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2987\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"667\" height=\"482\" />\r\n\r\nThis resilience in our portfolio’s earnings amidst a weak macro-economic environment is not unusual. As highlighted in our 1<sup>st</sup> Sept 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/why-consistent-compounders-outperform-during-market-stress/\">click here</a>), over the past 25 years, Consistent Compounders have delivered resilient share price performance during periods of market stress mainly because of their robust fundamentals and resilient earnings growth, even during periods of weak economic growth. This is mainly due to accelerated pace of market share gains by Consistent Compounders when the macro-economic environment weakens. Some of the reasons for such acceleration in market share gains include: a) the ability of CCP companies to help their distribution channel access bank financing during the ongoing liquidity crisis; b) the higher ROCE of an influencer (or channel partner) in the business carried out with CCP companies compared to their peers, which makes the influencer pass on the drop in consumer demand to firms offering lower ROCE to them, whilst keeping the business of CCP companies unaffected; and c) higher ROCEs of CCP companies provides them with better access to capital relative to peers, which can help fund expansion plans during a period of financial crisis.\r\n\r\n<strong>Recent regulatory changes are likely to create a ‘snowball effect’ on future earnings growth of our portfolio companies</strong>\r\n\r\nRegulatory changes like GST implementation and the corporate tax rate cuts have resulted in disproportionate benefits for our portfolio companies. These benefits are not limited to one or two years. Instead, they are likely to create a massive snowball effect in the following manner:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Snowball effect of corporate tax rate cut</strong>: We had explained this in Exhibit 4 of our 1<sup>st</sup> Oct 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/consistent-compounders-benefit-disproportionately-from-tax-rate-cuts/\">click here</a>). CCP companies have the rare ability to deliver healthy returns on capital employed (ROCE) whilst also maintaining a high rate (60-70%) of reinvestment of operating cash flows. Hence, such companies will plough back on to the balance sheet, the incremental profits generated from reduced tax rates, thereby creating a strong ‘snowball effect’ as time progresses. This ‘snowball effect’ accelerates the earnings growth rate of such a company into the long-term future. In addition to the ‘snowball effect’ of reinvesting incremental profits back onto the balance sheet, some CCP companies have also announced utilisation of incremental profits via: a) incremental product price cuts to suffocate competitors who did NOT receive tax cut benefits due to weaker profitability; b) increase in employee incentives to help reduce talent attrition; and c) increase in advertisement spends. Such actions are also likely to benefit a CCP company more than their peers because of two reasons: <strong>(a)</strong> the quantum of incremental profits of a CCP company are higher than those of their peers, giving it the extra firepower to spend in these areas; <strong>(b)</strong> some of the moats of a CCP company might have been built around R&amp;D / IT / HR / brand-recall, etc – which might not be true for their peers.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Snowball effect of GST</strong>: Over the past 12-18 months, the economic growth moderation in India has materially affected consumption growth to the level that even staples products with the lowest ticket size and highest utility have had flat or declining volumes on a YoY basis (<a href=\"https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/interviews/parle-g-is-worst-hit-volumes-have-declined-by-7-8-says-mayank-shah-of-parle-products/story/374545.html\">see this press article for instance</a>). Despite this, firms like Asian Paints and Berger have reported consistent and healthy volume growth rates throughout the last 12-18 months (see Exhibit 4 below). One of the biggest reasons for these healthy growth rates has been the shift of market share from unorganized to organized players in the industry, thanks to the implementation of GST. Even in the context of this shift, the CCP companies have benefited more than their other (organized sector) competitors. For example, Asian Paints and Berger have grown faster than Kansai Nerolac and Akzo Nobel due to substantially stronger moats for Asian Paints and Berger Paints around supply chain efficiencies. This is not just a short term step up in volumes, revenues and earnings for a couple of years for Asian Paints and Berger Paints. Instead, it is a snowball effect which is likely to <strong><em>accelerate</em></strong> their earnings growth in future years because of: a) their ability to redeploy the incremental earnings generated from this market share gain back into the business as explained in bullet 1 above; b) premiumisation of the newly acquired market share from economy products currently, to premium products and services in the future; and c) incremental operating efficiencies of supply chain into smaller towns and cities from where such market share gain would have been achieved after GST.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2988 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"670\" height=\"289\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2989 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"671\" height=\"348\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nThe low risk route to compounding wealth via equities at a healthy run-rate is to buy a portfolio of great companies whose fundamentals are resilient and healthy even during periods of stress in the external environment. Such companies accelerate the rate of market share gains from their weaker competitors during periods of economic stress. More importantly in India, regulatory changes over the past 3 years, like GST and corporate tax rate cuts, have only helped accelerate future earnings growth potential of such great companies by creating a ‘snowball effect’. Hence, as we have seen in the last five years, in the equation of <strong><em>P = P/E * E,</em></strong> healthy and consistent compounding of earnings of such great companies is likely to be the biggest driver of their share prices in future – regardless of how quickly (or slowly) the economy recovers.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>', 'CCP’s performance in FY20 fully supported by earnings growth', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'ccps-performance-in-fy20-fully-supported-by-earnings-growth', '', '', '2020-03-02 06:36:10', '2020-03-02 06:36:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=2983', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(3098, 1, '2020-04-06 04:20:16', '2020-04-06 04:20:16', '<strong>In FY20, Marcellus’ CCP PMS has delivered healthy absolute returns (+7.6% vs -25.0% for Nifty50 Total Return Index) alongside resilience during the recent stock market correction (since 1<sup>st</sup> Jan 2020: -12.9% for Marcellus CCP vs -29.1% for Nifty50 TRI). Beyond the period of business disruption from the ongoing lockdown, fundamentals of Marcellus’ CCP companies are likely to remain exceptionally strong due to: a) insignificant exposure to global demand and global supply chains; b) high exposure to small ticket daily essential products and services; and c) the opportunity to accelerate market share gains given the challenges faced by weaker/smaller competitors. Hence, the share price recovery after every such crisis happens sooner and sharper for CCP companies (vs the broader market) and timing entry / exits in such a portfolio tends to be a futile exercise.</strong>\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31<sup>st</sup> March 2020</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3101\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"877\" height=\"520\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Fundamentals of CCP companies are likely to remain robust with opportunities to accelerate market share </strong>\r\nAlthough there is short term uncertainty around when the lockdown related to Covid-19 will be lifted, we believe that the domestic lockdown related to the outbreak will be behind us after another 6 months (if not much sooner) i.e. offices, manufacturing plants and road transport infrastructure will be operating as normal. Bearing in mind this assumption, let us look at how the fundamentals of our portfolio companies are likely to be affected by this crisis.\r\n\r\n<strong>Next 3-5 year view of India’s economic growth</strong>: In a recent blog (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=53ce1dc3ef&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>), we had highlighted that four times in the last 40 years, a US recession alongside falling US bond yields and falling oil prices has been followed by a strong economic recovery in India. In fact, India has NEVER witnessed an economic recovery without a US recession preceding it! Now, all three conditions for an Indian economic recovery – a US recession, smashed crude prices and falling US Government bond yields are – in place.\r\n\r\n<strong>Exposure to recession in some of the western economies or to global supply chains</strong>: 12 out of our 13 portfolio companies have insignificant exposure (less than 2-3% of revenues) to exports for deriving their revenues. Divis Labs is the only portfolio company which is exposed to the export of APIs used in the manufacture of drugs like cough syrups and pain killers. Given that these drugs are essential in nature and Divis Labs controls 40%-70% market share globally in the manufacturing of these APIs, it is unlikely that there will be any adverse impact on demand for Divis Labs’ products. In fact, Divis stands to benefit if its Western Big Pharma customers increase their procurement from Divis at the expense of Chinese suppliers.\r\n\r\nAs highlighted in our 11<sup>th</sup> March webinar (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e99b416a44&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>), 6 out of 13 companies in our portfolio import upto 20% of their raw materials and hence are dependent on global supply chains. However, these imports are of chemicals and other commodities which are easy to substitute across geographies and companies – in some cases like Pidilite’s VAM procurement, imports can be substituted by in-house manufacturing of such raw materials.\r\n\r\n<strong>Deepening of the ongoing financial crisis due to rise in NPAs and tightened liquidity in the near term</strong>: The ongoing ‘lockdown’ in domestic economic activity will certainly lead to short term (2-4 months) suppression in revenues, earnings and cash flows of businesses across most parts of the economy. Undoubtedly this will result in a rise in NPAs and reduction in loan book growth rates for lenders during the 2-4 months period of lockdown.\r\n\r\nIn our 1<sup>st</sup> November 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5e3d3663c9&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>), we had explained how great lenders undergo a temporary deterioration in their financials during such a crisis, but are best placed to consolidate their market share once the crisis is over. This newsletter shows the journey of HDFC Bank during the global financial crisis of 2008 and of HDFC Ltd during the 1997-98 NBFC crisis (<em>just to emphasis the depth of the 1998 crisis - the Government infused Rs. 2,550 Cr into three PSU banks, IFCI had to be bailed out with a Rs. 1,000 Cr package, NPAs of IDBI increased to 18%, Global Trust Bank’s networth turned negative, the number of NBFCs dropped to 7,855 in Mar’99 from 55,995 in Mar’95 i.e. over 80% of NBFCs were shut down</em>).\r\n\r\nWe believe that Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are best positioned to consolidate lending market share over the next 3-4 years because of a combination of: a) a strong liabilities franchise with favorable Assets Liabilities Management (ALM) profile; b) comfortable capital adequacy ratios; c) superior quality of loan book compared to their competitors; and d) superior collections capabilities vs peers. Hence, any short-term moderation in earnings growth trajectory of these firms is likely to be more than offset by acceleration in earnings growth through market share gains over the next 3 years.\r\n\r\n<strong>Resilience of non-financials stocks in our holding portfolio</strong>: All our portfolio companies sell products and services which are small ticket, day- to-day essentials consumed by Indian middle-class households. Unlike spends on tourism / entertainment / leisure / luxury categories, demand for products and services of our portfolio companies is highly utility oriented and hence cannot be cancelled easily. For instance: a) you cannot defer the purchase of packaged foods like baby milk, Covid tests, essential medicines etc; b) you can delay by few weeks, the purchase of innerwear, footwear, diagnostic tests, etc; and c) you can delay by few months, the repainting or furniture repair in your home. Moreover, no matter how our lifestyle changes after such a crisis, habits and consumption patterns of these products are not likely to change or get substituted in the foreseeable future.\r\n\r\nMost interestingly, many of our portfolio companies are likely to <strong><u>strengthen</u></strong> their competitive positioning during this crisis through a combination of the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Support offered to channel partners</strong>: During one of our recent channel checks, a distributor of Page Industries (Jockey innerwear) told us <em>“In a normal situation, Page’s channel partners are offered upto 30-45 days of credit compared to 90-120 days of credit available from almost all competing brands of mens and womens innerwear. During a crisis like demonetization or the ongoing crisis, Page extends an extra 60 days of credit to distributors, which cannot be matched by Page’s competitors because these competitors’ balance sheets are not so strong and they do not want to extend a total of 6 months of credit to their channel partners. Such support from Page helps strengthen the firm’s relationship with their channel over the longer term”.</em> We expect this phenomenon to be true for almost all our portfolio companies which deal with distributors and dealers. Another such example is of Dr. Lal Pathlabs where the firm helps their franchisees by trying to renegotiate downwards rentals for collection centers laboratories.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Utilise benefits from last year’s corporate tax rate cuts to suffocate competition: </strong>As highlighted in our 1<sup>st</sup> October 2019 newsletter (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bd3018fad4&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>), all our portfolio companies have been the biggest beneficiaries in their respective industries, of the corporate tax rate cuts announced last year. At a time when competitors struggle due to the cash flow implications of the ongoing crisis on their balance sheet, the incremental cash flow available to our portfolio companies from tax rate cuts is likely to be used to gain market share through product price cuts, higher employee benefits, accelerated capex, support to channel partners and vendors, etc.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Possible benefits of in-house labour work force</strong>: Footwear and innerwear are the two most labour intensive manufacturing industries. Relaxo and Page have in-house manufacturing labour workforce being full time employees (vs contract labour and outsourced manufacturing for their peers). Hence, there is a high possibility that Relaxo and Page will be able to resume normalcy in their manufacturing setups much sooner than that of their competitors, given the mass exodus of contract laborers that many cities in India have witnessed over the past few weeks.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Benefits of owning / controlling the supply chain</strong>: Once the lockdown on road infrastructure is lifted, supply chains of different companies will come back to normalcy at different speeds. For instance, distributor-based supply chains will come back sooner than wholesaler-based supply chains due to the unorganized/ indirect nature and greater stress on working capital of a wholesaler vs a distributor. Firms which have fewer layers in their channel compared to others will get back to normalcy quicker. Firms like Page Industries and Relaxo are unique relative to their competitors due to their reliance only on distributors rather than wholesalers. Others like Pidilite and Nestle have a greater proportion of direct distributors compared to their competitors who are more dependent indirect distribution channels. Firms like Asian Paints and Berger do NOT have any channel partners in their supply chain barring the paint dealers on the high street. Dr. Lal Pathlabs, with its B2C business model (direct control on franchisees, lab technicians and equipment used by these lab technicians) will be better placed than competitors like Thyrocare which are more B2B in nature and do not such direct control on their supply chain infrastructure.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Market share shift from unorganized to organized players, and from small/weak players to large/stronger players</strong>: Several of our portfolio companies have been massive beneficiaries of events like demonetization and GST implementation due to the shift of market share from unorganized to organized players after these events. Due to the factors mentioned in the bullet points above, we expect this momentum of market share gains from unorganized players to continue for our portfolio companies after the COVID-19 disruption is behind us. This will apply to industries like footwear, paints, innerwear, packaged foods, adhesives and even pathology chains - opportunity to both consolidate the sector through bolt-on acquisition of weaker balance sheet path labs as well as recruit new footfalls during the crisis because smaller path labs are not allowed to do COVID-19 tests.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, while we expect the ongoing crisis to cause short term disruption in revenues and earnings of our portfolio companies, we expect these short term negatives to be more than offset by the longer term positives that are likely to emerge from the ongoing crisis (as the popular saying goes ‘<em>When the going gets tough…’).</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Share price recovery after such a crisis for CCP companies vs the broader market</strong>\r\nJust like we cannot time an exit before a stock market crash, we also cannot time entry before a stock market recovery. In fact, here are some data points which indicate that whilst it might make a lot of sense to time entry and exit from the broader market / a mediocre quality portfolio, the same exercise is not worthwhile when it comes to a portfolio of Consistent Compounders.\r\n\r\n<strong>CCP stocks fall less than the broader market during periods of market stress</strong>: As highlighted in exhibit 1a above, Marcellus’ CCP portfolio has not only remained resilient compared to the broader market, it has also delivered a healthy absolute return of +7.6% over the past 12 months, unlike the -25.0% return of Nifty50 over the same period. This is neither surprising nor unusual. As highlighted in our 1<sup>st</sup> September 2019 titled <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e9aaaefac6&amp;e=5648501957\"><em><strong>“Why Consistent Compounders outperform during periods of market stress”</strong></em></a>, in 60-70% of the instances of stock market crash on a 1-year basis, Consistent Compounders deliver a positive return only because of their stronger fundamentals compared to the broader market. In Appendix 1 of our book <em><strong>‘Coffee Can Investing: The Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’,</strong></em> we have shown that the maximum drawdown of a portfolio of CCP companies during the 2008 crash was approximately 30% compared to the approximately 65% fall in indices like Nifty50 / Sensex (a typical CCP portfolio in 2008 would have consisted of stocks such as HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, HDFC Ltd, Infosys, Cipla, Hero Motocorp etc.)\r\nThis phenomenon is not unique to India. A recent report from Morningstar (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=82629c9e38&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>) on the US stock market during the ongoing COVID-19 crash, has concluded that <em>“The shares of the highest-quality companies, as defined by Morningstar Equity Research, have lost less than the broad U.S. stock market and considerably less than low-quality stocks.”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>CCP portfolios recover much sooner and sharper compared to the broader stock market</strong>: After a 14 month long fall in the stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis, the market bottomed out on 9<sup>th</sup> March 2009. As shown in the exhibit below a typical CCP portfolio in 2008 would have recovered back to its pre-crash levels <em><strong>within 3 months</strong></em> of the market bottoming out compared to a <em><strong>long drawn 20-months recovery</strong></em> period for the Nifty50 to get back to its pre-crash levels.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3100\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"893\" height=\"464\" />\r\n\r\nThis rapid recovery in share prices of CCP portfolios after the market has bottomed out, is because of a combination of the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>CCP companies might strengthen their fundamentals during such crisis and come out stronger on the other side of the crisis – as highlighted in earlier in this newsletter.</li>\r\n 	<li>Before the stock market crash, share price performance of CCP companies is fully supported by their earnings and fundamentals (see Exhibits 2 and 3 of our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2020 newsletter on this subject – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=62f3369ef1&amp;e=5648501957\">click here</a>). The same might not be true for the performance of Nifty50 / Sensex.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Successful timing of entry / exit in a mediocre asset class makes sense, but not in a CCP portfolio</strong>: The exhibit 3a on the left below shows a framework around this and the exhibit 3b on the right below gives an example of this framework.\r\nEntry into a mediocre quality stock just before the 2008 crash would be expected to deliver 10-12% CAGR over the next decade, in-line with earnings growth potential of the underlying asset. However, given the approximately 70% drawdown in such stock during the 2008 crash, timing an entry right at the bottom of the crash would have delivered a 10-year CAGR of 26% instead. The difference between 12% (without timing) and 26% (with perfect timing) is not only big, it also changes the relevance of compounding for such a portfolio consisting of mediocre. At 12% CAGR, an investor might just be able to meet their increase in cost of living over a decade. However, at 26% CAGR, the investor would have created substantial wealth over and above the inflation in their cost of living.\r\n\r\nOn the contrary, timing entry / exit from a CCP type of portfolio during the global financial crisis of 2008 would have only shifted an investor’s CAGR from 26% to 30% - surely, not worth the effort given the costs involved around: a) risk of getting the timing wrong; b) transaction costs; and c) intense focus on share prices rather than on fundamental research (or your day job) during such times of stock market crash.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3099\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"897\" height=\"337\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nWe cannot predict the depth and duration of any stock market crash. However, during every such period of distress, Consistent Compounders deliver the most resilient share price performance with recovery in their stock prices being much sooner and sharper than the rest of the market. This makes timing entry / exits in such a portfolio a futile exercise. Hence, instead of focusing on how the event is unfolding in the short term (for example – carefully tracking the number of affected Covid-19 cases in India and across the world), we focus on only two aspects of our portfolio companies: a) will these firms be able to survive this crisis and will the demand for their products return to normalcy few months after the crisis?; and b) can these firms further strengthen their competitive positioning due to the crisis and hence lead the consolidation of market share over the next 3-5 years?\r\n\r\nBased on the answers to these two questions, we stay fully invested through the stock market crash in such Consistent Compounders in order to deliver healthy and consistent portfolio compounding with low volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong>Reminder for option to change your fees structure for FY21</strong>\r\nA reminder to all our existing clients CCP PMS client – like every year, you have the option of changing your fees structure for the next 12 months, from amongst the three fees-options that we offer. If you would like to exercise this option, please send an email to <a href=\"mailto:clientsupport@marcellus.in\">clientsupport@marcellus.in</a> before 30<sup>th</sup> April 2020. Please ignore this reminder if you do not wish to change the fees structure applicable on your Marcellus CCP PMS account.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'Consistent Compounders fall less and recover sooner and sharper', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'consistent-compounders-fall-less-and-recover-sooner-and-sharper', '', '', '2020-04-06 04:20:16', '2020-04-06 04:20:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3098', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3033, 1, '2020-03-11 03:41:25', '2020-03-11 03:41:25', '', 'Impact of ongoing events on Marcellus PMS: Mr Rakshit Ranjan & Mr Ashvin Shetty. #Fund Managers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'impact-of-ongoing-events-on-marcellus-pms-mr-rakshit-ranjan-mr-ashvin-shetty-fund-managers', '', '', '2020-03-13 03:46:18', '2020-03-13 03:46:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3033', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(2994, 1, '2020-03-03 12:26:47', '2020-03-03 12:26:47', '<span class=\"m_3049194925170336120xember-view\">Marcellus (</span><a href=\"http://www.marcellus.in/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.marcellus.in/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583320498655000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFLMFakKXjDS1LtCATMXIZ4CGZMkA\"><b>www.marcellus.in</b></a><span class=\"m_3049194925170336120xember-view\">) is expanding its Sales team and is looking to hire. The role is a combination of managing our distribution channel, direct clients and delivering client servicing. The ideal candidate would be a self-starter, energetic, eager to learn and obsessed about delivering best in class service experience to all stake holders. Candidates with 3-7 years of professional experience should send their CV along with a covering email to </span><a href=\"mailto:careers@marcellus.in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><b>careers@marcellus.in</b></a><span class=\"m_3049194925170336120xember-view\"> latest by 15th March 2020. </span><span class=\"m_3049194925170336120xember-view\">Prior experience in asset management or wealth management industry will be desirable but not mandatory. Candidates will have the flexibility to be based out of Mumbai, Bangalore or Delhi.</span>', 'Sales & Business Development Professional', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sales-business-development-professional', '', '', '2020-03-03 12:26:47', '2020-03-03 12:26:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=2994', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
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(3005, 1, '2020-03-08 04:38:31', '2020-03-08 04:38:31', 'Given that we like investing in outstanding franchises which produce stellar free cashflows for decades on end, we are particularly interested in understanding why Japan – more than any other country – houses some of the oldest companies in the world. As per this article from the BBC, “The country has 33,000 businesses at least a century old.... Back in 2008, a Bank of Korea report found that of 5,586 companies older than 200 years in 41 countries, 56% of them were in Japan. In 2019, there were over 33,000 businesses in Japan over a century old, according to research firm Teikoku Data Bank. The oldest hotel in the world has been open since 705 in Yamanashi and confectioner Ichimonjiya Wasuke has been selling sweet treats in Kyoto since 1000. Osaka-based construction giant Takenaka was founded in 1610, while even some global Japanese brands like Suntory and Nintendo have unexpectedly long histories stretching back to the 1800s.”\r\nSo why does Japan have the uncanny ability to produce companies which last centuries? “Yoshinori Hara, dean and professor at Kyoto University’s Graduate School of Management, says these long-standing entities, at least 100 years old, are known as ‘shinise’ – literally meaning ‘old shop’.\r\nHara, who worked in Silicon Valley for a decade, says that Japanese companies’ emphasis on sustainability, rather than quick maximisation of profit, is a major reason why so many of the nation’s businesses have such staying power. “In Japan, it’s more: how can we move [the company] on to our descendants, our children, our grandchildren?” he explains.”\r\nJapan’s isolation from the rest of the world has also helped its companies stay insulated from the shifting sands of global commerce: “…Innan Sasaki, an assistant professor at the University of Warwick’s business school who’s written about Japanese company longevity, says there are other reasons more specific to Japan.\r\n“More generally, we could say that it is because of the general long-term orientation: the culture of respecting tradition and ancestors, combined with the fact that it has been an island country with relatively limited interaction with other countries,” she says, pointing to people’s desire to make the most of what they have for as long as possible by preserving local companies in the community.”\r\nIn fact, in order to sustain family owned companies, the owners of these firms have been willing to do some extraordinary things: “Several companies have even benefited from the widely-accepted Japanese practice of adopting adult male workers into the family bloodline to ensure an unbroken succession for the business, something even huge firms like Suzuki Motor and Panasonic have done.”\r\nAstonishingly, one example of a family owned company which has been going since 1889 is Nintendo: “…most people don’t know that the company predates its massive global commercial success. Despite being thought of as a tech company, Nintendo was founded back in 1889, as a maker of playing cards for the Japanese game hanafuda. First imported by the Portuguese in the 16th Century, the game involves collecting cards with various flowers printed on them, each worth different points.\r\nKyoto University’s Hara says Nintendo is a great example of a company sticking to what he calls a “core competency”. That’s the basic concept behind what a company makes or does, which helps the company survive – even as the technology or world around it changes. In Nintendo’s case, it’s “how to create fun”, Hara says.”\r\nThe flipside of the Japanese love of longevity is its indifferent attitude to start-ups: ““To be in the start-up scene in terms of social acceptance has been challenging, since the ‘start-up’ world is not as acknowledged as ‘shinise’ companies. I’ve had hard times explaining and sharing with my parents or friends what I do and where I work,” says Mari Matsuzaki, 27. She works at Queue, a Tokyo-based education technology start-up, and used to run the Tokyo version of Slush, the international start-up not-for-profit aimed at students.\r\n“Out of my graduating class, I am probably the only one who decided to enter a start-up,” she says. “While in other countries, founders are praised for transforming their failures into valued experiences, in Japan, the dominant mindset towards risk and failure is a battle many entrepreneurs have to overcome.””', 'Why so many of the world’s oldest companies are in Japan', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-so-many-of-the-worlds-oldest-companies-are-in-japan', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:11:35', '2020-03-09 06:11:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3005', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3006, 1, '2020-03-09 05:59:30', '2020-03-09 05:59:30', 'Given that we like investing in outstanding franchises which produce stellar free cashflows for decades on end, we are particularly interested in understanding why Japan – more than any other country – houses some of the oldest companies in the world. As per this article from the BBC, “The country has 33,000 businesses at least a century old.... Back in 2008, a Bank of Korea report found that of 5,586 companies older than 200 years in 41 countries, 56% of them were in Japan. In 2019, there were over 33,000 businesses in Japan over a century old, according to research firm Teikoku Data Bank. The oldest hotel in the world has been open since 705 in Yamanashi and confectioner Ichimonjiya Wasuke has been selling sweet treats in Kyoto since 1000. Osaka-based construction giant Takenaka was founded in 1610, while even some global Japanese brands like Suntory and Nintendo have unexpectedly long histories stretching back to the 1800s.”\r\nSo why does Japan have the uncanny ability to produce companies which last centuries? “Yoshinori Hara, dean and professor at Kyoto University’s Graduate School of Management, says these long-standing entities, at least 100 years old, are known as ‘shinise’ – literally meaning ‘old shop’.\r\nHara, who worked in Silicon Valley for a decade, says that Japanese companies’ emphasis on sustainability, rather than quick maximisation of profit, is a major reason why so many of the nation’s businesses have such staying power. “In Japan, it’s more: how can we move [the company] on to our descendants, our children, our grandchildren?” he explains.”\r\nJapan’s isolation from the rest of the world has also helped its companies stay insulated from the shifting sands of global commerce: “…Innan Sasaki, an assistant professor at the University of Warwick’s business school who’s written about Japanese company longevity, says there are other reasons more specific to Japan.\r\n“More generally, we could say that it is because of the general long-term orientation: the culture of respecting tradition and ancestors, combined with the fact that it has been an island country with relatively limited interaction with other countries,” she says, pointing to people’s desire to make the most of what they have for as long as possible by preserving local companies in the community.”\r\nIn fact, in order to sustain family owned companies, the owners of these firms have been willing to do some extraordinary things: “Several companies have even benefited from the widely-accepted Japanese practice of adopting adult male workers into the family bloodline to ensure an unbroken succession for the business, something even huge firms like Suzuki Motor and Panasonic have done.”\r\nAstonishingly, one example of a family owned company which has been going since 1889 is Nintendo: “…most people don’t know that the company predates its massive global commercial success. Despite being thought of as a tech company, Nintendo was founded back in 1889, as a maker of playing cards for the Japanese game hanafuda. First imported by the Portuguese in the 16th Century, the game involves collecting cards with various flowers printed on them, each worth different points.\r\nKyoto University’s Hara says Nintendo is a great example of a company sticking to what he calls a “core competency”. That’s the basic concept behind what a company makes or does, which helps the company survive – even as the technology or world around it changes. In Nintendo’s case, it’s “how to create fun”, Hara says.”\r\nThe flipside of the Japanese love of longevity is its indifferent attitude to start-ups: ““To be in the start-up scene in terms of social acceptance has been challenging, since the ‘start-up’ world is not as acknowledged as ‘shinise’ companies. I’ve had hard times explaining and sharing with my parents or friends what I do and where I work,” says Mari Matsuzaki, 27. She works at Queue, a Tokyo-based education technology start-up, and used to run the Tokyo version of Slush, the international start-up not-for-profit aimed at students.\r\n“Out of my graduating class, I am probably the only one who decided to enter a start-up,” she says. “While in other countries, founders are praised for transforming their failures into valued experiences, in Japan, the dominant mindset towards risk and failure is a battle many entrepreneurs have to overcome.””', 'Why so many of the world’s oldest companies are in Japan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3005-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 05:59:30', '2020-03-09 05:59:30', '', 3005, 'https://marcellus.in/3005-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3007, 1, '2020-03-08 05:59:55', '2020-03-08 05:59:55', 'Whilst most of us at Marcellus have self-selected ourselves to get off the beaten track, many of us are as worried as any other parent as to what our kids will do when they grow up and how will they stay happy and become “successful”. In this piece, Madeline Levine, a psychologist from California tells us that <em>“When parents portray success as a linear progression of SAT scores, acceptance to selective colleges, and high-powered internships, they set kids up for disappointment.”</em>\r\nMs Levine kicks off the piece describing a ten year old boy who, whilst sitting in her office, tells her what he wants to do in life: <em>“With no hesitation, he perks up and exclaims, “I want to run a start-up.” He doesn’t even know what a start-up is, but he does know, in exacting detail, the trajectory he will need to take to become wildly successful in running one. Not yet finished with middle school, he has charted the next 15 years of his life: He plans on applying to the most competitive high school in town, hoping that this will increase his odds of going to Stanford. He knows he will have to serve time as an intern, preferably at Google. He is intent on being a “winner.”</em>\r\n<em>My young patient’s parents, teachers, and community are all likely to encourage this way of thinking, but they are only making his future chances of being successful less likely.”</em>\r\nMs Levine then goes on to explain why successful people’s lives rarely take linear trajectories: <em>“I’ve spent more than 15 years traveling the country talking to large audiences about the intersection of child development, psychology, and education. At the start of my presentation, I pull up two PowerPoint slides: One is simply a straight line on a 45-­degree angle. The other is a squiggly line with multiple ups and downs that trends in an upward direction. With the image on-screen, I ask the audience to raise their hands in response to one of these two questions: “How many of you who consider yourself successful have followed the straight path? How many have followed the squiggly path?” I have asked more than 100,000 people these questions. Whatever the composition of my audience—techies from Silicon Valley, cops and teachers from middle­-class neighborhoods, the highest levels of management from some of America’s biggest companies—the proportion of “straight arrows” and “curious wanderers” is always the same. Straight arrows make up, at most, 10 per­cent of the people who consider themselves successful. The remaining 90 percent are folks who have taken risks, failed, changed course, recovered, often failed again, but ultimately found their stride.”</em>\r\nShe goes on to elaborate why parental determination of their kids’ life trajectories can be particularly damaging: <em>“Even if parents ascended a relatively smooth track from school to career success, it’s misguided to assume that what worked for them will be right for their kids, too. (See: the parents who push their kids to apply to their alma mater, for instance.) Encouraging children to follow a linear path makes them cautious and competitive, when what they are most likely to need are curiosity, a willingness to take risks, and a talent for collaboration.”</em>\r\nMs Levine goes on to question the conventional definition of success and argues in favour of a broader view of what constitutes success: <em>“What exactly constitutes success is, of course, open to a world of meaning. Financial independence is one way to measure success, a sense of doing meaningful and fulfilling work is another, and raising a healthy family and contributing to one’s community yet another. Sometimes these varying definitions converge; sometimes they don’t. One of the patterns that I see regularly among people who consider themselves successful is real passion about the work they do: the kind of passion that makes them work harder than others, welcome mistakes and even failures as learning opportunities, and feel that what they do has impact. While money may be inherited, real success always has to be earned.</em>\r\n<em>If a linear progression tightly tied to grades, SAT scores, admittance to selective colleges, and high-­powered internships for well-­known companies were in fact the path taken by most successful people, we still would have to weigh its value against healthy child development, but at least we would have some evidence that our kids would one day benefit from all of the aggressive preparation, coaching, and tutoring. However, reality—that is, real people following real trajectories—suggests that this particular template is only modestly accurate. More often, a meandering and unexpected path is what leads to success.”</em>', 'Kids Don’t Need to Stay ‘On Track’ to Succeed', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'kids-dont-need-to-stay-on-track-to-succeed', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:01:12', '2020-03-09 06:01:12', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3007', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3008, 1, '2020-03-09 06:01:12', '2020-03-09 06:01:12', 'Whilst most of us at Marcellus have self-selected ourselves to get off the beaten track, many of us are as worried as any other parent as to what our kids will do when they grow up and how will they stay happy and become “successful”. In this piece, Madeline Levine, a psychologist from California tells us that <em>“When parents portray success as a linear progression of SAT scores, acceptance to selective colleges, and high-powered internships, they set kids up for disappointment.”</em>\r\nMs Levine kicks off the piece describing a ten year old boy who, whilst sitting in her office, tells her what he wants to do in life: <em>“With no hesitation, he perks up and exclaims, “I want to run a start-up.” He doesn’t even know what a start-up is, but he does know, in exacting detail, the trajectory he will need to take to become wildly successful in running one. Not yet finished with middle school, he has charted the next 15 years of his life: He plans on applying to the most competitive high school in town, hoping that this will increase his odds of going to Stanford. He knows he will have to serve time as an intern, preferably at Google. He is intent on being a “winner.”</em>\r\n<em>My young patient’s parents, teachers, and community are all likely to encourage this way of thinking, but they are only making his future chances of being successful less likely.”</em>\r\nMs Levine then goes on to explain why successful people’s lives rarely take linear trajectories: <em>“I’ve spent more than 15 years traveling the country talking to large audiences about the intersection of child development, psychology, and education. At the start of my presentation, I pull up two PowerPoint slides: One is simply a straight line on a 45-­degree angle. The other is a squiggly line with multiple ups and downs that trends in an upward direction. With the image on-screen, I ask the audience to raise their hands in response to one of these two questions: “How many of you who consider yourself successful have followed the straight path? How many have followed the squiggly path?” I have asked more than 100,000 people these questions. Whatever the composition of my audience—techies from Silicon Valley, cops and teachers from middle­-class neighborhoods, the highest levels of management from some of America’s biggest companies—the proportion of “straight arrows” and “curious wanderers” is always the same. Straight arrows make up, at most, 10 per­cent of the people who consider themselves successful. The remaining 90 percent are folks who have taken risks, failed, changed course, recovered, often failed again, but ultimately found their stride.”</em>\r\nShe goes on to elaborate why parental determination of their kids’ life trajectories can be particularly damaging: <em>“Even if parents ascended a relatively smooth track from school to career success, it’s misguided to assume that what worked for them will be right for their kids, too. (See: the parents who push their kids to apply to their alma mater, for instance.) Encouraging children to follow a linear path makes them cautious and competitive, when what they are most likely to need are curiosity, a willingness to take risks, and a talent for collaboration.”</em>\r\nMs Levine goes on to question the conventional definition of success and argues in favour of a broader view of what constitutes success: <em>“What exactly constitutes success is, of course, open to a world of meaning. Financial independence is one way to measure success, a sense of doing meaningful and fulfilling work is another, and raising a healthy family and contributing to one’s community yet another. Sometimes these varying definitions converge; sometimes they don’t. One of the patterns that I see regularly among people who consider themselves successful is real passion about the work they do: the kind of passion that makes them work harder than others, welcome mistakes and even failures as learning opportunities, and feel that what they do has impact. While money may be inherited, real success always has to be earned.</em>\r\n<em>If a linear progression tightly tied to grades, SAT scores, admittance to selective colleges, and high-­powered internships for well-­known companies were in fact the path taken by most successful people, we still would have to weigh its value against healthy child development, but at least we would have some evidence that our kids would one day benefit from all of the aggressive preparation, coaching, and tutoring. However, reality—that is, real people following real trajectories—suggests that this particular template is only modestly accurate. More often, a meandering and unexpected path is what leads to success.”</em>', 'Kids Don’t Need to Stay ‘On Track’ to Succeed', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3007-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:01:12', '2020-03-09 06:01:12', '', 3007, 'https://marcellus.in/3007-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3009, 1, '2020-03-08 06:01:22', '2020-03-08 06:01:22', 'As the number of countries reporting incidences of patients with Coronavirus symptoms rises, fear and panic has gripped the world even harder, with suggestions that it could be the worst pandemic the world has seen. So, what has the been the worst the world has seen historically and how does it compare to what we know about the Coronavirus thus far? This piece in The Atlantic, attempts just that. Dr Jeremy Brown, the author of the article is an emergency physician and the author of <em>Influenza: The 100-Year Hunt to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History, </em>a book about the Great Flu that killed millions in 1918 and whether the world is prepared for the next epidemic. Whilst Dr Brown allows for the possibility for the unknown unknown about Coronavirus, he reassuringly writes about the vast advances in medical science which should prevent this from coming any closer to the Great Flu. For example, back then it took almost 15yrs to simply trace the root cause of the flu to the influenza virus. <em>“The contrast with the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, could not be greater. From the very start of the outbreak, scientists suspected a virus. Within two weeks, they had identified it as a coronavirus, sequenced its genome, and discovered that the most likely animal hosts were bats. This information, which was published by a Chinese team, was instantly shared across the scientific community, allowing research labs around the world to begin the long and complicated process of understanding the virus, and finding a vaccine and a cure. We may not have beaten the enemy yet, but we certainly know a great deal about him.</em>\r\n<em>The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 occurred in the pre-antibiotic era. Although antibiotics do not treat viruses, they do treat the secondary bacterial infections that sometimes follow. These secondary infections cause severe pneumonia, and were likely responsible for most of the deaths in 1918. Back then, there was little to offer. Physicians recommended quinine (not helpful), dry champagne (ditto, though more fun), and phenolphthalein (a cancer-causing laxative). During an earlier outbreak of influenza, in 1916, British military physicians had even tried bloodletting as they treated dying soldiers. When it failed, they suggested it had simply not been tried soon enough in the course of the disease. Patients survived in spite of their doctors.</em>\r\n<em>Today we live in a world that is flooded with antibiotics. And although there is concern that bacteria are becoming ever more resistant to them, antibiotics remain an overwhelmingly powerful tool to treat secondary bacterial pneumonia. Early case reports describe these infections in COVID-19 patients, and we have every reason to believe that for many, though sadly not all, antibiotics will provide a cure.</em>\r\n<em>We also have another class of drugs available today: antivirals, which directly target the virus responsible for a disease. There are at least four approved antiviral medications, some given orally and others intravenously. They are not as effective as we would like, but they have been given to a number of very sick COVID-19 patients. Whether those antiviral medications or the antibiotics that are often given in tandem are responsible for successful outcomes is hard to determine. But we have options that were simply undreamed of a century ago.”</em>', 'The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-coronavirus-is-no-1918-pandemic', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:03:10', '2020-03-09 06:03:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3009', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3010, 1, '2020-03-09 06:03:10', '2020-03-09 06:03:10', 'As the number of countries reporting incidences of patients with Coronavirus symptoms rises, fear and panic has gripped the world even harder, with suggestions that it could be the worst pandemic the world has seen. So, what has the been the worst the world has seen historically and how does it compare to what we know about the Coronavirus thus far? This piece in The Atlantic, attempts just that. Dr Jeremy Brown, the author of the article is an emergency physician and the author of <em>Influenza: The 100-Year Hunt to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History, </em>a book about the Great Flu that killed millions in 1918 and whether the world is prepared for the next epidemic. Whilst Dr Brown allows for the possibility for the unknown unknown about Coronavirus, he reassuringly writes about the vast advances in medical science which should prevent this from coming any closer to the Great Flu. For example, back then it took almost 15yrs to simply trace the root cause of the flu to the influenza virus. <em>“The contrast with the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, could not be greater. From the very start of the outbreak, scientists suspected a virus. Within two weeks, they had identified it as a coronavirus, sequenced its genome, and discovered that the most likely animal hosts were bats. This information, which was published by a Chinese team, was instantly shared across the scientific community, allowing research labs around the world to begin the long and complicated process of understanding the virus, and finding a vaccine and a cure. We may not have beaten the enemy yet, but we certainly know a great deal about him.</em>\r\n<em>The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 occurred in the pre-antibiotic era. Although antibiotics do not treat viruses, they do treat the secondary bacterial infections that sometimes follow. These secondary infections cause severe pneumonia, and were likely responsible for most of the deaths in 1918. Back then, there was little to offer. Physicians recommended quinine (not helpful), dry champagne (ditto, though more fun), and phenolphthalein (a cancer-causing laxative). During an earlier outbreak of influenza, in 1916, British military physicians had even tried bloodletting as they treated dying soldiers. When it failed, they suggested it had simply not been tried soon enough in the course of the disease. Patients survived in spite of their doctors.</em>\r\n<em>Today we live in a world that is flooded with antibiotics. And although there is concern that bacteria are becoming ever more resistant to them, antibiotics remain an overwhelmingly powerful tool to treat secondary bacterial pneumonia. Early case reports describe these infections in COVID-19 patients, and we have every reason to believe that for many, though sadly not all, antibiotics will provide a cure.</em>\r\n<em>We also have another class of drugs available today: antivirals, which directly target the virus responsible for a disease. There are at least four approved antiviral medications, some given orally and others intravenously. They are not as effective as we would like, but they have been given to a number of very sick COVID-19 patients. Whether those antiviral medications or the antibiotics that are often given in tandem are responsible for successful outcomes is hard to determine. But we have options that were simply undreamed of a century ago.”</em>', 'The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3009-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:03:10', '2020-03-09 06:03:10', '', 3009, 'https://marcellus.in/3009-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3011, 1, '2020-03-09 06:03:14', '2020-03-09 06:03:14', 'As the number of countries reporting incidences of patients with Coronavirus symptoms rises, fear and panic has gripped the world even harder, with suggestions that it could be the worst pandemic the world has seen. So, what has the been the worst the world has seen historically and how does it compare to what we know about the Coronavirus thus far? This piece in The Atlantic, attempts just that. Dr Jeremy Brown, the author of the article is an emergency physician and the author of <em>Influenza: The 100-Year Hunt to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History, </em>a book about the Great Flu that killed millions in 1918 and whether the world is prepared for the next epidemic. Whilst Dr Brown allows for the possibility for the unknown unknown about Coronavirus, he reassuringly writes about the vast advances in medical science which should prevent this from coming any closer to the Great Flu. For example, back then it took almost 15yrs to simply trace the root cause of the flu to the influenza virus. <em>“The contrast with the coronavirus, which causes the disease COVID-19, could not be greater. From the very start of the outbreak, scientists suspected a virus. Within two weeks, they had identified it as a coronavirus, sequenced its genome, and discovered that the most likely animal hosts were bats. This information, which was published by a Chinese team, was instantly shared across the scientific community, allowing research labs around the world to begin the long and complicated process of understanding the virus, and finding a vaccine and a cure. We may not have beaten the enemy yet, but we certainly know a great deal about him.</em>\n<em>The Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 occurred in the pre-antibiotic era. Although antibiotics do not treat viruses, they do treat the secondary bacterial infections that sometimes follow. These secondary infections cause severe pneumonia, and were likely responsible for most of the deaths in 1918. Back then, there was little to offer. Physicians recommended quinine (not helpful), dry champagne (ditto, though more fun), and phenolphthalein (a cancer-causing laxative). During an earlier outbreak of influenza, in 1916, British military physicians had even tried bloodletting as they treated dying soldiers. When it failed, they suggested it had simply not been tried soon enough in the course of the disease. Patients survived in spite of their doctors.</em>\n<em>Today we live in a world that is flooded with antibiotics. And although there is concern that bacteria are becoming ever more resistant to them, antibiotics remain an overwhelmingly powerful tool to treat secondary bacterial pneumonia. Early case reports describe these infections in COVID-19 patients, and we have every reason to believe that for many, though sadly not all, antibiotics will provide a cure.</em>\n<em>We also have another class of drugs available today: antivirals, which directly target the virus responsible for a disease. There are at least four approved antiviral medications, some given orally and others intravenously. They are not as effective as we would like, but they have been given to a number of very sick COVID-19 patients. Whether those antiviral medications or the antibiotics that are often given in tandem are responsible for successful outcomes is hard to determine. But we have options that were simply undreamed of a century ago.”</em>', 'The Coronavirus Is No 1918 Pandemic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3009-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:03:14', '2020-03-09 06:03:14', '', 3009, 'https://marcellus.in/3009-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3012, 1, '2020-03-08 06:03:26', '2020-03-08 06:03:26', 'We agonise over how smartphones and social media have reduced our attention span and made us distractible in general. Turns out we human beings are naturally wired to be distractible in the first place. Indeed, new research shows that the human mind oscillates in and out of focus four times every second according to scientists at Princeton university, corroborated by similar findings from research at UC, Berkley. This means that we don’t actually see the world as registered by the brain. The brain in fact has to piece together several distinct frames at superfast speed into a motion picture of sorts, much like film making in the analog era. The research links this to evolution when human beings couldn’t afford to focus on just one thing in order to stay alert of any predatory threats.\r\n<em>“The findings are as much philosophical as they are scientific — enough to call into question our most basic understanding of reality into question. Both studies — one on humans by a team at the University of California Berkeley, and another on macaques done by scientists at Princeton University — sought to pin down how many times the human brain oscillates in and out of focus per minute. Four times every second, explains Princeton Neuroscience Institute Ian Fiebelkorn, Ph.D., to Inverse, the brain stops focusing on the task at hand. That’s about 240 times a minute.</em>\r\n<em> “The brain is wired to be somewhat distractible,” he says. “We focus in bursts, and between those bursts we have these periods of distractibility, that’s when the brain seems to check in on the rest of the environment outside to see if there’s something important going on elsewhere. These rhythms are affecting our behavior all the time.”</em>\r\n<em>To understand these “rhythms of attention,” Fiebelkorn suggests imagining standing in Times Square on New Years’ Eve, surrounded by people, cars, and music. The scene presents far more sensory information than one human brain is capable of sorting through, and so, the brain deals with all of the information in two ways. First, it focuses on a single point of interest: the street corner where you might meet a friend, or Ryan Seacrest combing the crowd for interviews. Like a filmstrip, the brain takes snapshots of these moments and pieces them together into a cohesive narrative, or “perceptual cycle.”</em>\r\n<em>We experience that moment as continuous, but in reality, we’ve only sampled certain elements of the environment around us. It feels continuous because our brains have filled in the gaps for us, explains Berkeley’s Knight Lab researcher and first author Randolph Helfrich, Ph.D. to Inverse.”</em>', 'Scientists reveal the number of times you are conscious each minute', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'scientists-reveal-the-number-of-times-you-are-conscious-each-minute', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:19:21', '2020-03-09 06:19:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3012', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3013, 1, '2020-03-09 06:05:17', '2020-03-09 06:05:17', 'We agonise over how smartphones and social media have reduced our attention span and made us distractible in general. Turns out we human beings are naturally wired to be distractible in the first place. Indeed, new research shows that the human mind oscillates in and out of focus four times every second according to scientists at Princeton university, corroborated by similar findings from research at UC, Berkley. This means that we don’t actually see the world as registered by the brain. The brain in fact has to piece together several distinct frames at superfast speed into a motion picture of sorts, much like film making in the analog era. The research links this to evolution when human beings couldn’t afford to focus on just one thing in order to stay alert of any predatory threats.\r\n<em>“The findings are as much philosophical as they are scientific — enough to call into question our most basic understanding of reality into question. Both studies — one on humans by a team at the University of California Berkeley, and another on macaques done by scientists at Princeton University — sought to pin down how many times the human brain oscillates in and out of focus per minute. Four times every second, explains Princeton Neuroscience Institute Ian Fiebelkorn, Ph.D., to Inverse, the brain stops focusing on the task at hand. That’s about 240 times a minute.</em>\r\n<em> “The brain is wired to be somewhat distractible,” he says. “We focus in bursts, and between those bursts we have these periods of distractibility, that’s when the brain seems to check in on the rest of the environment outside to see if there’s something important going on elsewhere. These rhythms are affecting our behavior all the time.”</em>\r\n<em>To understand these “rhythms of attention,” Fiebelkorn suggests imagining standing in Times Square on New Years’ Eve, surrounded by people, cars, and music. The scene presents far more sensory information than one human brain is capable of sorting through, and so, the brain deals with all of the information in two ways. First, it focuses on a single point of interest: the street corner where you might meet a friend, or Ryan Seacrest combing the crowd for interviews. Like a filmstrip, the brain takes snapshots of these moments and pieces them together into a cohesive narrative, or “perceptual cycle.”</em>\r\n<em>We experience that moment as continuous, but in reality, we’ve only sampled certain elements of the environment around us. It feels continuous because our brains have filled in the gaps for us, explains Berkeley’s Knight Lab researcher and first author Randolph Helfrich, Ph.D. to Inverse.”</em>', 'Scientists reveal the number of times you are conscious each minute', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3012-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:05:17', '2020-03-09 06:05:17', '', 3012, 'https://marcellus.in/3012-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3014, 1, '2020-03-08 06:05:32', '2020-03-08 06:05:32', 'Popular belief amongst investors is that large companies tend to grow slower, especially given that the size tends to have drag on their agility when it comes to innovation. We often are asked if we aren’t worried about our Consistent Compounders portfolio companies which are already well known market leaders in their respective sectors. In our December 2019 <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55fbdd357e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55fbdd357e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQtrYIamRHYInF-XKBZnMYzjrA-w\">newsletter</a>, we noted that in a third world economy like India, the growth runway for most products and services is still very long and hence companies that can sustain their competitive advantages can still deliver healthy long term growth rates. Separately, we have also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3360beec8e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3360beec8e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEmCs0nIT8dBpfu89lqI5K6F2y9ww\">talked</a> about the consolidation of the Indian economy into a handful of companies in each sector. However, this shouldn’t be construed as large caps being superior to small caps as dominant market leaders in niche industries can still be found among small caps. In this HBR paper, the authors who are professors at Tuck, Stern and Calgary, highlight how larger companies have indeed increased their gap over small companies not just in terms of size but also in terms of their profitabilities. In a way they link this to the larger companies’ superior ability to invest in technology, an increasing source of competitive advantage in most industries and amortise the R&amp;D spend across a larger base.\r\n<em>“Contrary to the popular notion, we find that large corporations are more and more likely to maintain their dominant positions, while small corporations are less and less likely to become big and profitable. And part of the reason for this growing corporate divide between big and small firms is the growing R&amp;D expenditures of large firms. Our results support Lou Gerstner’s thesis that the elephants are not basking in their past glory, but can indeed dance and are even becoming nimbler.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>The performance gap between the large and small increases too. The difference in median return on operating assets was 15% in the 1990s, but has recently doubled to 30-35% — an enormous gap in profitability of operating assets. Inspecting the two groups separately clarifies that the large companies are geting more profitable, whereas the small ones suffer from chronic unprofitability. In fact, both the median return on operating assets and the median profit margin of the small companies turned negative during 2015-2017.</em>\r\n<em>When we examine the main driver of enterprise performance and growth – the rate of investment in tangible and intangible (R&amp;D, brands, technology, human resources, etc.) assets – we find a dramatic increase in the gap between how much large and small companies invest in intangibles. The chart below shows, for example, that the difference between the mean annual R&amp;D spending of large and small companies grew from less than $20 million in the 1980s to almost $120 million in 2017 (inflation adjusted to 1981 dollars). On average, a large company spent $330 million on R&amp;D in 2017, while the average small company spent a paltry $6 million – obviously insufficient to keep pace with a large competitor, except through a fortuitous discovery. The decreasing productivity of R&amp;D investments makes matters worse for small companies”</em>', 'The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-gap-between-large-and-small-companies-is-growing-why', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:17:45', '2020-03-09 06:17:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3014', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3015, 1, '2020-03-09 06:06:35', '2020-03-09 06:06:35', 'Popular belief amongst investors is that large companies tend to grow slower, especially given that the size tends to have drag on their agility when it comes to innovation. We often are asked if we aren’t worried about our Consistent Compounders portfolio companies which are already well known market leaders in their respective sectors. In our December 2019 <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55fbdd357e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55fbdd357e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQtrYIamRHYInF-XKBZnMYzjrA-w\">newsletter</a>, we noted that in a third world economy like India, the growth runway for most products and services is still very long and hence companies that can sustain their competitive advantages can still deliver healthy long term growth rates. Separately, we have also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3360beec8e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3360beec8e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEmCs0nIT8dBpfu89lqI5K6F2y9ww\">talked</a> about the consolidation of the Indian economy into a handful of companies in each sector. However, this shouldn’t be construed as large caps being superior to small caps as dominant market leaders in niche industries can still be found among small caps. In this HBR paper, the authors who are professors at Tuck, Stern and Calgary, highlight how larger companies have indeed increased their gap over small companies not just in terms of size but also in terms of their profitabilities. In a way they link this to the larger companies’ superior ability to invest in technology, an increasing source of competitive advantage in most industries and amortise the R&amp;D spend across a larger base.\r\n<em>“Contrary to the popular notion, we find that large corporations are more and more likely to maintain their dominant positions, while small corporations are less and less likely to become big and profitable. And part of the reason for this growing corporate divide between big and small firms is the growing R&amp;D expenditures of large firms. Our results support Lou Gerstner’s thesis that the elephants are not basking in their past glory, but can indeed dance and are even becoming nimbler.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>The performance gap between the large and small increases too. The difference in median return on operating assets was 15% in the 1990s, but has recently doubled to 30-35% — an enormous gap in profitability of operating assets. Inspecting the two groups separately clarifies that the large companies are geting more profitable, whereas the small ones suffer from chronic unprofitability. In fact, both the median return on operating assets and the median profit margin of the small companies turned negative during 2015-2017.</em>\r\n<em>When we examine the main driver of enterprise performance and growth – the rate of investment in tangible and intangible (R&amp;D, brands, technology, human resources, etc.) assets – we find a dramatic increase in the gap between how much large and small companies invest in intangibles. The chart below shows, for example, that the difference between the mean annual R&amp;D spending of large and small companies grew from less than $20 million in the 1980s to almost $120 million in 2017 (inflation adjusted to 1981 dollars). On average, a large company spent $330 million on R&amp;D in 2017, while the average small company spent a paltry $6 million – obviously insufficient to keep pace with a large competitor, except through a fortuitous discovery. The decreasing productivity of R&amp;D investments makes matters worse for small companies”</em>', 'The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3014-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:06:35', '2020-03-09 06:06:35', '', 3014, 'https://marcellus.in/3014-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3016, 1, '2020-03-08 06:06:53', '2020-03-08 06:06:53', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'The Tesla Experiment', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-tesla-experiment', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:16:13', '2020-03-09 06:16:13', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3016', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3017, 1, '2020-03-09 06:09:35', '2020-03-09 06:09:35', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'the Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:09:35', '2020-03-09 06:09:35', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3018, 1, '2020-03-09 06:11:35', '2020-03-09 06:11:35', 'Given that we like investing in outstanding franchises which produce stellar free cashflows for decades on end, we are particularly interested in understanding why Japan – more than any other country – houses some of the oldest companies in the world. As per this article from the BBC, “The country has 33,000 businesses at least a century old.... Back in 2008, a Bank of Korea report found that of 5,586 companies older than 200 years in 41 countries, 56% of them were in Japan. In 2019, there were over 33,000 businesses in Japan over a century old, according to research firm Teikoku Data Bank. The oldest hotel in the world has been open since 705 in Yamanashi and confectioner Ichimonjiya Wasuke has been selling sweet treats in Kyoto since 1000. Osaka-based construction giant Takenaka was founded in 1610, while even some global Japanese brands like Suntory and Nintendo have unexpectedly long histories stretching back to the 1800s.”\r\nSo why does Japan have the uncanny ability to produce companies which last centuries? “Yoshinori Hara, dean and professor at Kyoto University’s Graduate School of Management, says these long-standing entities, at least 100 years old, are known as ‘shinise’ – literally meaning ‘old shop’.\r\nHara, who worked in Silicon Valley for a decade, says that Japanese companies’ emphasis on sustainability, rather than quick maximisation of profit, is a major reason why so many of the nation’s businesses have such staying power. “In Japan, it’s more: how can we move [the company] on to our descendants, our children, our grandchildren?” he explains.”\r\nJapan’s isolation from the rest of the world has also helped its companies stay insulated from the shifting sands of global commerce: “…Innan Sasaki, an assistant professor at the University of Warwick’s business school who’s written about Japanese company longevity, says there are other reasons more specific to Japan.\r\n“More generally, we could say that it is because of the general long-term orientation: the culture of respecting tradition and ancestors, combined with the fact that it has been an island country with relatively limited interaction with other countries,” she says, pointing to people’s desire to make the most of what they have for as long as possible by preserving local companies in the community.”\r\nIn fact, in order to sustain family owned companies, the owners of these firms have been willing to do some extraordinary things: “Several companies have even benefited from the widely-accepted Japanese practice of adopting adult male workers into the family bloodline to ensure an unbroken succession for the business, something even huge firms like Suzuki Motor and Panasonic have done.”\r\nAstonishingly, one example of a family owned company which has been going since 1889 is Nintendo: “…most people don’t know that the company predates its massive global commercial success. Despite being thought of as a tech company, Nintendo was founded back in 1889, as a maker of playing cards for the Japanese game hanafuda. First imported by the Portuguese in the 16th Century, the game involves collecting cards with various flowers printed on them, each worth different points.\r\nKyoto University’s Hara says Nintendo is a great example of a company sticking to what he calls a “core competency”. That’s the basic concept behind what a company makes or does, which helps the company survive – even as the technology or world around it changes. In Nintendo’s case, it’s “how to create fun”, Hara says.”\r\nThe flipside of the Japanese love of longevity is its indifferent attitude to start-ups: ““To be in the start-up scene in terms of social acceptance has been challenging, since the ‘start-up’ world is not as acknowledged as ‘shinise’ companies. I’ve had hard times explaining and sharing with my parents or friends what I do and where I work,” says Mari Matsuzaki, 27. She works at Queue, a Tokyo-based education technology start-up, and used to run the Tokyo version of Slush, the international start-up not-for-profit aimed at students.\r\n“Out of my graduating class, I am probably the only one who decided to enter a start-up,” she says. “While in other countries, founders are praised for transforming their failures into valued experiences, in Japan, the dominant mindset towards risk and failure is a battle many entrepreneurs have to overcome.””', 'Why so many of the world’s oldest companies are in Japan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3005-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:11:35', '2020-03-09 06:11:35', '', 3005, 'https://marcellus.in/3005-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3019, 1, '2020-03-09 06:12:31', '2020-03-09 06:12:31', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'the Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:12:31', '2020-03-09 06:12:31', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3020, 1, '2020-03-09 06:12:40', '2020-03-09 06:12:40', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'The Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:12:40', '2020-03-09 06:12:40', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3021, 1, '2020-03-09 06:13:28', '2020-03-09 06:13:28', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'The Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:13:28', '2020-03-09 06:13:28', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3022, 1, '2020-03-09 06:14:43', '2020-03-09 06:14:43', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'The Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:14:43', '2020-03-09 06:14:43', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3023, 1, '2020-03-09 06:16:13', '2020-03-09 06:16:13', 'When it comes to investors’ irrational exuberance in the markets, it does seem like it is no different from a child’s excitement about things that deliver instant gratification. Except unlike kids, we tend to rationalise what is entirely an act of emotion. Here’s a heartwarming story of a father taking his adolescent son on a quick introductory lesson on the stock market with an experiment involving buying one Tesla share and going through the euphoria of its sharp rally and the eventual despair from a minor crash, all within days.', 'The Tesla Experiment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3016-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:16:13', '2020-03-09 06:16:13', '', 3016, 'https://marcellus.in/3016-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3024, 1, '2020-03-09 06:17:45', '2020-03-09 06:17:45', 'Popular belief amongst investors is that large companies tend to grow slower, especially given that the size tends to have drag on their agility when it comes to innovation. We often are asked if we aren’t worried about our Consistent Compounders portfolio companies which are already well known market leaders in their respective sectors. In our December 2019 <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55fbdd357e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55fbdd357e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGQtrYIamRHYInF-XKBZnMYzjrA-w\">newsletter</a>, we noted that in a third world economy like India, the growth runway for most products and services is still very long and hence companies that can sustain their competitive advantages can still deliver healthy long term growth rates. Separately, we have also <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3360beec8e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3360beec8e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096735000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEmCs0nIT8dBpfu89lqI5K6F2y9ww\">talked</a> about the consolidation of the Indian economy into a handful of companies in each sector. However, this shouldn’t be construed as large caps being superior to small caps as dominant market leaders in niche industries can still be found among small caps. In this HBR paper, the authors who are professors at Tuck, Stern and Calgary, highlight how larger companies have indeed increased their gap over small companies not just in terms of size but also in terms of their profitabilities. In a way they link this to the larger companies’ superior ability to invest in technology, an increasing source of competitive advantage in most industries and amortise the R&amp;D spend across a larger base.\r\n<em>“Contrary to the popular notion, we find that large corporations are more and more likely to maintain their dominant positions, while small corporations are less and less likely to become big and profitable. And part of the reason for this growing corporate divide between big and small firms is the growing R&amp;D expenditures of large firms. Our results support Lou Gerstner’s thesis that the elephants are not basking in their past glory, but can indeed dance and are even becoming nimbler.</em>\r\n<em>… </em><em>The performance gap between the large and small increases too. The difference in median return on operating assets was 15% in the 1990s, but has recently doubled to 30-35% — an enormous gap in profitability of operating assets. Inspecting the two groups separately clarifies that the large companies are geting more profitable, whereas the small ones suffer from chronic unprofitability. In fact, both the median return on operating assets and the median profit margin of the small companies turned negative during 2015-2017.</em>\r\n<em>When we examine the main driver of enterprise performance and growth – the rate of investment in tangible and intangible (R&amp;D, brands, technology, human resources, etc.) assets – we find a dramatic increase in the gap between how much large and small companies invest in intangibles. The chart below shows, for example, that the difference between the mean annual R&amp;D spending of large and small companies grew from less than $20 million in the 1980s to almost $120 million in 2017 (inflation adjusted to 1981 dollars). On average, a large company spent $330 million on R&amp;D in 2017, while the average small company spent a paltry $6 million – obviously insufficient to keep pace with a large competitor, except through a fortuitous discovery. The decreasing productivity of R&amp;D investments makes matters worse for small companies”</em>', 'The Gap Between Large and Small Companies Is Growing. Why?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3014-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:17:45', '2020-03-09 06:17:45', '', 3014, 'https://marcellus.in/3014-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3025, 1, '2020-03-09 06:19:21', '2020-03-09 06:19:21', 'We agonise over how smartphones and social media have reduced our attention span and made us distractible in general. Turns out we human beings are naturally wired to be distractible in the first place. Indeed, new research shows that the human mind oscillates in and out of focus four times every second according to scientists at Princeton university, corroborated by similar findings from research at UC, Berkley. This means that we don’t actually see the world as registered by the brain. The brain in fact has to piece together several distinct frames at superfast speed into a motion picture of sorts, much like film making in the analog era. The research links this to evolution when human beings couldn’t afford to focus on just one thing in order to stay alert of any predatory threats.\r\n<em>“The findings are as much philosophical as they are scientific — enough to call into question our most basic understanding of reality into question. Both studies — one on humans by a team at the University of California Berkeley, and another on macaques done by scientists at Princeton University — sought to pin down how many times the human brain oscillates in and out of focus per minute. Four times every second, explains Princeton Neuroscience Institute Ian Fiebelkorn, Ph.D., to Inverse, the brain stops focusing on the task at hand. That’s about 240 times a minute.</em>\r\n<em> “The brain is wired to be somewhat distractible,” he says. “We focus in bursts, and between those bursts we have these periods of distractibility, that’s when the brain seems to check in on the rest of the environment outside to see if there’s something important going on elsewhere. These rhythms are affecting our behavior all the time.”</em>\r\n<em>To understand these “rhythms of attention,” Fiebelkorn suggests imagining standing in Times Square on New Years’ Eve, surrounded by people, cars, and music. The scene presents far more sensory information than one human brain is capable of sorting through, and so, the brain deals with all of the information in two ways. First, it focuses on a single point of interest: the street corner where you might meet a friend, or Ryan Seacrest combing the crowd for interviews. Like a filmstrip, the brain takes snapshots of these moments and pieces them together into a cohesive narrative, or “perceptual cycle.”</em>\r\n<em>We experience that moment as continuous, but in reality, we’ve only sampled certain elements of the environment around us. It feels continuous because our brains have filled in the gaps for us, explains Berkeley’s Knight Lab researcher and first author Randolph Helfrich, Ph.D. to Inverse.”</em>', 'Scientists reveal the number of times you are conscious each minute', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3012-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:19:21', '2020-03-09 06:19:21', '', 3012, 'https://marcellus.in/3012-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3026, 1, '2020-03-08 06:19:53', '2020-03-08 06:19:53', '<strong>In our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=711438aaa8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D711438aaa8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096671000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHcMt7dqTnTcCGJWYWXjN9Gehyjzw\">February 2020</a> newsletter we had highlighted the 22% rally in the BSE Smallcap index from August 2019-end to early February 2020. Since then the BSE Smallcap Index is down 10%. As in February 2020 when investors seemed to be turning euphoric and today when they are turning bearish, we advocate buying clean &amp; dominant franchises with high RoCEs &amp; high reinvestment rates. Such companies deliver superior earnings growth and share price returns. Similarly, whilst our Little Champs portfolio could see some short-term impact of disruptions in global trade, we do not have long term concerns and expect business for these firms to bounce-back strongly as the uncertainties fade over the coming months.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</strong>\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be particularly sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of the accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize the impact of trading costs.\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table:\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3028 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/marcellus-logo-new.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"592\" height=\"318\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>We buy small cap companies with high RoCEs combined with high reinvestment rates</strong>\r\nAn analysis of Indian small cap companies (excluding Financial Services stocks) with market caps ranging from Rs1bn to Rs35bn (the universe for the Little Champs portfolio) indicates that companies with high RoCEs invariably deliver high share price returns as shown in Exhibit 2 below. This correlation between the RoCE and the share price return is quite logical. Companies with deep rooted competitive advantages deliver returns on capital employed substantially higher than their cost of capital. This results in strong free cash flows for these companies and enables them to sustain their growth and earnings over the longer term.\r\n\r\nHowever, high RoCE by itself would not be of much use if the company is not able to find avenues to redeploy the surplus cash flows at the current high level of RoCE. On the other hand, companies which are able to maintain a combination of high re-investment rates amidst high RoCEs typically deliver the highest share price returns (see Exhibit 3 below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3029 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"583\" height=\"306\" />\r\n\r\nHowever, maintaining this combination is a lot easier said than done as there may be only limited avenues for growth within the core business and companies have to necessarily look at diversification either organically (new products, new geographies) or inorganically through acquisitions. Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders Portfolio’s <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7c5621062f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D7c5621062f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583813096671000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF2hlhwbCnZTo3iASbx0IjLKejUQQ\">February 2020 newsletter</a> details out the challenges that many firms with great core franchise face in sensibly allocating their surplus cash flows as most of the diversification measures (mainly inorganic) historically did not yield the desired results.\r\n\r\n<strong>Very few companies can combine high RoCEs with high reinvestment rates</strong>\r\nThere is an extremely small set of small cap companies in India which are able to achieve the above combination of high RoCEs and high reinvestment rates over the longer term. However, this is one of the key traits we look for while shortlisting the stocks for our Little Champs portfolio. It goes without saying that achieving  this require: (a) the work ethic to grow the organisation larger such as instilling process oriented culture, devolution of power &amp; responsibilities to build scale etc; (b) the capital allocation skills to rationally and patiently invest in building long term competitive advantages; and (c) the skill and the drive to run efficient manufacturing operations such as keeping the working capital cycles tight.\r\n\r\nOn a median basis, the Little Champs portfolio (excluding the two lenders in the portfolio) have delivered 3/5/10 year average RoCE of 24%/25%/22% respectively. Besides sustaining healthy RoCE levels, the portfolio stocks have also been able to maintain high reinvestment rates resulting in strong earnings CAGR over the 3/5/10 year periods. Please note that we are not considering the two financial services stocks that we own in our Little Champs portfolio while presenting the analysis shown below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3030 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"583\" height=\"282\" />\r\n\r\nInterestingly, most of the Little Champs companies have been able to maintain high reinvestment rates without going in for any significant acquisitions which also explains the sustenance of high RoCEs for these companies (as discussed earlier, successful inorganic growth has rarely been seen in Indian corporate life). Our analysis suggest Little Champs have been able to achieve their sustainably high levels organic growth due to the following reasons:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were earlier local in nature, became regional and finally gained national presence. </strong>The success template here has been to build a pan-India brand, a national distribution network and thereby chipping away share from the unorganised local plays or grow the addressable market pie. Improved integration within the economy be it communication (including internet), mode of travel (road, air) etc. have helped break-down barriers which hitherto helped informal businesses flourish.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were successful in replicating the leadership in one category across multiple categories. </strong>This has been driven by profitably deploying the cashflows from the core businesses into adjacencies i.e. a new product segment. Companies have been able to leverage the cash flows, product understanding as also the distribution/customer relationships of the core business to build profitable adjacencies.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Businesses that were able to successfully capture a significant part of the global pie.</strong> These not only include export-oriented companies but also players able to substitute high level of imports into India. The underlying drivers for success here have not only been leveraging the low-cost Indian manufacturing advantage, but also coming up with innovative products or processes that induces customers to shift from existing vendors.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Coronavirus and impact on Little Champs investment strategy</strong>\r\nFor understandable reasons, there has been growing investor concerns surrounding Coronavirus. Whilst there are still several uncertainties regarding when the disease will finally be brought under control, we see limited long term impact of the Coronavirus on the fundamentals of the companies we invest in due to the following reasons:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>From a demand perspective, there are 5 portfolio companies (portfolio allocation of ~40-45%) which have meaningful exports (more than 25% of their revenues). However, the exports as well as the global operations of these companies are pre-dominantly into Western geographies.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3031 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image4-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"574\" height=\"314\" />\r\n\r\nFrom a supply disruption perspective, barring one portfolio company (8% portfolio allocation) none of the other companies rely directly on any meaningful imports from China. However, there will be an indirect impact on the auto-ancillary companies in the portfolio (15-20% portfolio allocation) where the user industry (i.e. automobile OEMs) source components from China and hence are exposed to the ongoing supply chain disruption in China. We believe these supply chain disruptions can have a short-term impact on the earnings of these companies. We expect supply chain disruptions could be made up over the next 6-12 months as sourcing from China can be substituted from other geographies.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3032 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/image5-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"358\" />\r\n\r\nHistory has been a witness to many similar events like SARS, MERS, Ebola or even demonetisation (which practically shut the whole of Indian economy for about 2-3 months). Such events had only a temporary impact on business activity which bounced back quite sharply as the uncertainties faded away.\r\n\r\nFurther, there will be a few offsetting factors in the short term which will help the Little Champs companies like: (a) buffer of a few months of raw material inventory that are maintained by the companies especially for their imported components; (b) a sharp fall in crude oil prices which is positive for earnings of many of our portfolio companies; (c) liquidity easing measures by central banks globally to mitigate the impact of Coronavirus; and (d) some companies in our portfolio benefit from substitution of Chinese manufacturing by these Indian companies.\r\n\r\nAs such, while we remain to be watchful of the events unfolding in front of us (particularly since the spread of the virus in India), we continue deploying clients’ monies in buying the Little Champs stocks. These are clean, well-managed franchises with sustainable competitive advantages and they are likely to be able to continue growing their businesses inspite of the short run disruption posed by the virus.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>', 'The Trinity of Higher ROCE, High Reinvestment and High Growth', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'the-trinity-of-higher-roce-high-reinvestment-and-high-growth', '', '', '2020-03-09 06:58:08', '2020-03-09 06:58:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3026', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(3035, 1, '2020-03-15 08:47:50', '2020-03-15 08:47:50', 'At Marcellus, we go wild with happiness when we find well written, insightful reading material. This piece fits that description perfectly. Mr Rotman begins by explaining why over the last 50 years Moore’s Law has underpinned pretty much all the technological progress we have seen in the world around us: <em>“Gordon Moore’s 1965 forecast that the number of components on an integrated circuit would double every year until it reached an astonishing 65,000 by 1975 is the greatest technological prediction of the last half-century. When it proved correct in 1975, he revised what has become known as Moore’s Law to a doubling of transistors on a chip every two years. Since then, his prediction has defined the trajectory of technology and, in many ways, of progress itself.</em>\r\n<em>Moore’s argument was an economic one. Integrated circuits, with multiple transistors and other electronic devices interconnected with aluminum metal lines on a tiny square of silicon wafer, had been invented a few years earlier by Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor. Moore, the company’s R&amp;D director, realized, as he wrote in 1965, that with these new integrated circuits, “the cost per component is nearly inversely proportional to the number of components.” It was a beautiful bargain—in theory, the more transistors you added, the cheaper each one got. Moore also saw that there was plenty of room for engineering advances to increase the number of transistors you could affordably and reliably put on a chip.</em>\r\n<em>Soon these cheaper, more powerful chips would become what economists like to call a general purpose technology—one so fundamental that it spawns all sorts of other innovations and advances in multiple industries. A few years ago, leading economists credited the information technology made possible by integrated circuits with a third of US productivity growth since 1974. Almost every technology we care about, from smartphones to cheap laptops to GPS, is a direct reflection of Moore’s prediction. It has also fueled today’s breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and genetic medicine, by giving machine-learning techniques the ability to chew through massive amounts of data to find answers.”</em>\r\nNow, however, it appears that we can no longer benefit from the continuation of Moore’s Law – basically, scientists are no longer being able to stick more and more transistors on tiny squares of silicon wafer: <em>““It’s over. This year that became really clear,” says Charles Leiserson, a computer scientist at MIT and a pioneer of parallel computing, in which multiple calculations are performed simultaneously. The newest Intel fabrication plant, meant to build chips with minimum feature sizes of 10 nanometers, was much delayed, delivering chips in 2019, five years after the previous generation of chips with 14-nanometer features. Moore’s Law, Leiserson says, was always about the rate of progress, and “we’re no longer on that rate.” Numerous other prominent computer scientists have also declared Moore’s Law dead in recent years. In early 2019, the CEO of the large chipmaker Nvidia agreed.</em>\r\n<em>In truth, it’s been more a gradual decline than a sudden death. Over the decades, some, including Moore himself at times, fretted that they could see the end in sight, as it got harder to make smaller and smaller transistors. In 1999, an Intel researcher worried that the industry’s goal of making transistors smaller than 100 nanometers by 2005 faced fundamental physical problems with “no known solutions,” like the quantum effects of electrons wandering where they shouldn’t be.</em>\r\n<em>For years the chip industry managed to evade these physical roadblocks. New transistor designs were introduced to better corral the electrons. New lithography methods using extreme ultraviolet radiation were invented when the wavelengths of visible light were too thick to precisely carve out silicon features of only a few tens of nanometers. But progress grew ever more expensive. Economists at Stanford and MIT have calculated that the research effort going into upholding Moore’s Law has risen by a factor of 18 since 1971.”</em>\r\nSo what will happen now? Will the pace of technological progress slow down thus condemning our virus stricken, globally warmed generation to more misery? First the good news – all is not lost: <em>“Nonetheless, Intel—one of those three chipmakers—isn’t expecting a funeral for Moore’s Law anytime soon. Jim Keller, who took over as Intel’s head of silicon engineering in 2018, is the man with the job of keeping it alive. He leads a team of some 8,000 hardware engineers and chip designers at Intel. When he joined the company, he says, many were anticipating the end of Moore’s Law. If they were right, he recalls thinking, “that’s a drag” and maybe he had made “a really bad career move.”</em>\r\n<em>But Keller found ample technical opportunities for advances. He points out that there are probably more than a hundred variables involved in keeping Moore’s Law going, each of which provides different benefits and faces its own limits. It means there are many ways to keep doubling the number of devices on a chip—innovations such as 3D architectures and new transistor designs.</em>\r\n<em>These days Keller sounds optimistic. He says he has been hearing about the end of Moore’s Law for his entire career. After a while, he “decided not to worry about it.” He says Intel is on pace for the next 10 years, and he will happily do the math for you: 65 billion (number of transistors) times 32 (if chip density doubles every two years) is 2 trillion transistors…..”</em>\r\nNow the bad news: <em>“Neil Thompson is an economist, but his office is at CSAIL, MIT’s sprawling AI and computer center, surrounded by roboticists and computer scientists, including his collaborator Leiserson. In a new paper, the two document ample room for improving computational performance through better software, algorithms, and specialized chip architecture.</em>\r\n<em>One opportunity is in slimming down so-called software bloat to wring the most out of existing chips. When chips could always be counted on to get faster and more powerful, programmers didn’t need to worry much about writing more efficient code. And they often failed to take full advantage of changes in hardware architecture, such as the multiple cores, or processors, seen in chips used today.</em>\r\n<em>Thompson and his colleagues showed that they could get a computationally intensive calculation to run some 47 times faster just by switching from Python, a popular general-purpose programming language, to the more efficient C. That’s because C, while it requires more work from the programmer, greatly reduces the required number of operations, making a program run much faster. Further tailoring the code to take full advantage of a chip with 18 processing cores sped things up even more. In just 0.41 seconds, the researchers got a result that took seven hours with Python code.</em>\r\n<em>That sounds like good news for continuing progress, but Thompson worries it also signals the decline of computers as a general purpose technology. Rather than “lifting all boats,” as Moore’s Law has, by offering ever faster and cheaper chips that were universally available, advances in software and specialized architecture will now start to selectively target specific problems and business opportunities, favoring those with sufficient money and resources.</em>\r\n<em>Indeed, the move to chips designed for specific applications, particularly in AI, is well under way. Deep learning and other AI applications increasingly rely on graphics processing units (GPUs) adapted from gaming, which can handle parallel operations, while companies like Google, Microsoft, and Baidu are designing AI chips for their own particular needs. AI, particularly deep learning, has a huge appetite for computer power, and specialized chips can greatly speed up its performance, says Thompson.</em>\r\n<em>But the trade-off is that specialized chips are less versatile than traditional CPUs. Thompson is concerned that chips for more general computing are becoming a backwater, slowing “the overall pace of computer improvement,” as he writes in an upcoming paper, “The Decline of Computers as a General Purpose Technology.””</em>', 'We’re not prepared for the end of Moore’s Law', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law', '', '', '2020-03-16 08:49:42', '2020-03-16 08:49:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3035', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3036, 1, '2020-03-16 08:49:42', '2020-03-16 08:49:42', 'At Marcellus, we go wild with happiness when we find well written, insightful reading material. This piece fits that description perfectly. Mr Rotman begins by explaining why over the last 50 years Moore’s Law has underpinned pretty much all the technological progress we have seen in the world around us: <em>“Gordon Moore’s 1965 forecast that the number of components on an integrated circuit would double every year until it reached an astonishing 65,000 by 1975 is the greatest technological prediction of the last half-century. When it proved correct in 1975, he revised what has become known as Moore’s Law to a doubling of transistors on a chip every two years. Since then, his prediction has defined the trajectory of technology and, in many ways, of progress itself.</em>\r\n<em>Moore’s argument was an economic one. Integrated circuits, with multiple transistors and other electronic devices interconnected with aluminum metal lines on a tiny square of silicon wafer, had been invented a few years earlier by Robert Noyce at Fairchild Semiconductor. Moore, the company’s R&amp;D director, realized, as he wrote in 1965, that with these new integrated circuits, “the cost per component is nearly inversely proportional to the number of components.” It was a beautiful bargain—in theory, the more transistors you added, the cheaper each one got. Moore also saw that there was plenty of room for engineering advances to increase the number of transistors you could affordably and reliably put on a chip.</em>\r\n<em>Soon these cheaper, more powerful chips would become what economists like to call a general purpose technology—one so fundamental that it spawns all sorts of other innovations and advances in multiple industries. A few years ago, leading economists credited the information technology made possible by integrated circuits with a third of US productivity growth since 1974. Almost every technology we care about, from smartphones to cheap laptops to GPS, is a direct reflection of Moore’s prediction. It has also fueled today’s breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and genetic medicine, by giving machine-learning techniques the ability to chew through massive amounts of data to find answers.”</em>\r\nNow, however, it appears that we can no longer benefit from the continuation of Moore’s Law – basically, scientists are no longer being able to stick more and more transistors on tiny squares of silicon wafer: <em>““It’s over. This year that became really clear,” says Charles Leiserson, a computer scientist at MIT and a pioneer of parallel computing, in which multiple calculations are performed simultaneously. The newest Intel fabrication plant, meant to build chips with minimum feature sizes of 10 nanometers, was much delayed, delivering chips in 2019, five years after the previous generation of chips with 14-nanometer features. Moore’s Law, Leiserson says, was always about the rate of progress, and “we’re no longer on that rate.” Numerous other prominent computer scientists have also declared Moore’s Law dead in recent years. In early 2019, the CEO of the large chipmaker Nvidia agreed.</em>\r\n<em>In truth, it’s been more a gradual decline than a sudden death. Over the decades, some, including Moore himself at times, fretted that they could see the end in sight, as it got harder to make smaller and smaller transistors. In 1999, an Intel researcher worried that the industry’s goal of making transistors smaller than 100 nanometers by 2005 faced fundamental physical problems with “no known solutions,” like the quantum effects of electrons wandering where they shouldn’t be.</em>\r\n<em>For years the chip industry managed to evade these physical roadblocks. New transistor designs were introduced to better corral the electrons. New lithography methods using extreme ultraviolet radiation were invented when the wavelengths of visible light were too thick to precisely carve out silicon features of only a few tens of nanometers. But progress grew ever more expensive. Economists at Stanford and MIT have calculated that the research effort going into upholding Moore’s Law has risen by a factor of 18 since 1971.”</em>\r\nSo what will happen now? Will the pace of technological progress slow down thus condemning our virus stricken, globally warmed generation to more misery? First the good news – all is not lost: <em>“Nonetheless, Intel—one of those three chipmakers—isn’t expecting a funeral for Moore’s Law anytime soon. Jim Keller, who took over as Intel’s head of silicon engineering in 2018, is the man with the job of keeping it alive. He leads a team of some 8,000 hardware engineers and chip designers at Intel. When he joined the company, he says, many were anticipating the end of Moore’s Law. If they were right, he recalls thinking, “that’s a drag” and maybe he had made “a really bad career move.”</em>\r\n<em>But Keller found ample technical opportunities for advances. He points out that there are probably more than a hundred variables involved in keeping Moore’s Law going, each of which provides different benefits and faces its own limits. It means there are many ways to keep doubling the number of devices on a chip—innovations such as 3D architectures and new transistor designs.</em>\r\n<em>These days Keller sounds optimistic. He says he has been hearing about the end of Moore’s Law for his entire career. After a while, he “decided not to worry about it.” He says Intel is on pace for the next 10 years, and he will happily do the math for you: 65 billion (number of transistors) times 32 (if chip density doubles every two years) is 2 trillion transistors…..”</em>\r\nNow the bad news: <em>“Neil Thompson is an economist, but his office is at CSAIL, MIT’s sprawling AI and computer center, surrounded by roboticists and computer scientists, including his collaborator Leiserson. In a new paper, the two document ample room for improving computational performance through better software, algorithms, and specialized chip architecture.</em>\r\n<em>One opportunity is in slimming down so-called software bloat to wring the most out of existing chips. When chips could always be counted on to get faster and more powerful, programmers didn’t need to worry much about writing more efficient code. And they often failed to take full advantage of changes in hardware architecture, such as the multiple cores, or processors, seen in chips used today.</em>\r\n<em>Thompson and his colleagues showed that they could get a computationally intensive calculation to run some 47 times faster just by switching from Python, a popular general-purpose programming language, to the more efficient C. That’s because C, while it requires more work from the programmer, greatly reduces the required number of operations, making a program run much faster. Further tailoring the code to take full advantage of a chip with 18 processing cores sped things up even more. In just 0.41 seconds, the researchers got a result that took seven hours with Python code.</em>\r\n<em>That sounds like good news for continuing progress, but Thompson worries it also signals the decline of computers as a general purpose technology. Rather than “lifting all boats,” as Moore’s Law has, by offering ever faster and cheaper chips that were universally available, advances in software and specialized architecture will now start to selectively target specific problems and business opportunities, favoring those with sufficient money and resources.</em>\r\n<em>Indeed, the move to chips designed for specific applications, particularly in AI, is well under way. Deep learning and other AI applications increasingly rely on graphics processing units (GPUs) adapted from gaming, which can handle parallel operations, while companies like Google, Microsoft, and Baidu are designing AI chips for their own particular needs. AI, particularly deep learning, has a huge appetite for computer power, and specialized chips can greatly speed up its performance, says Thompson.</em>\r\n<em>But the trade-off is that specialized chips are less versatile than traditional CPUs. Thompson is concerned that chips for more general computing are becoming a backwater, slowing “the overall pace of computer improvement,” as he writes in an upcoming paper, “The Decline of Computers as a General Purpose Technology.””</em>', 'We’re not prepared for the end of Moore’s Law', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3035-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 08:49:42', '2020-03-16 08:49:42', '', 3035, 'https://marcellus.in/3035-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3037, 1, '2020-03-15 08:52:37', '2020-03-15 08:52:37', 'In India we have almost become indifferent to reading about crimes against women. For decades now the daily news has contained stories of rape &amp; brutality against women. The authorities seem to be stirred into life only if a middle class woman is raped and then murdered. Given the scale of the issue and given the paucity of resources of the Indian state it would be a miracle of the Indian state is able to do anything to reverse this grim trend. Relief, if it comes, will have to come from social change and social reform. In this context, this story from the BBC points to an encouraging trend: <em>“Omkar is one of more than 5,000 boys in Pune, India to participate in a programme called Action for Equality (AFE). Launched by the Equal Community Foundation (ECF) in 2011, the AFE programme is seeking to fight violence against women – with teenaged boys.”</em>\r\nWhy does Action for Equality focus on this specific group – teenage boys? “Battling for gender equality is like fighting the current of a rushing river, says Christina Furtado, executive director of ECF. <em>“We\'ve been telling [women], ‘It’s very important for you to fight for your rights.’ We\'ve managed to pull a few women out and put them on a life raft,” she says.</em>\r\n<em>But when solutions focus solely on women, “what you\'re not doing is not changing the flow of the current,” she says. “Because at the end of the day, educated and empowered women will go home with violent and abusive men.”</em>\r\n<em>This is why programmes like this have such an important role to play. Even so, conservative Pune, India may seem an especially unlikely place to launch a grassroots campaign for gender equality, let alone a place where teenage boys would lead the charge. In low-income, traditional communities like this one, both boys and girls often are bound by old-fashioned customs that dictate that housework is women’s work – and that men can sexually, verbally, and physically abuse women without consequence.</em>\r\n<em>In AFE, boys aged 13 to 17 spend 43 weeks studying education curricula designed to teach them about gender-based violence, disrupt gender norms, and make their communities more equitable and safer for women and girls.”</em>\r\nSo how does the program work and is it scalable? <em>“The programme’s facilitators are people who teenage boys tend to look up to: young men in their 20s. ECF requires participants to attend 60% of sessions and to complete a capstone “action project” – a community solution that they then implement. About 80% of participants graduate.</em>\r\n<em>Eighteen-year-old Akshay initially joined the AFE programme in 2014 as a volunteer to conduct the sessions. He later enrolled in it himself, along with his two brothers. Since he graduated from the programme, he says, he has become a role model for other boys in the community…But both Omkar and Kanta [his mother], equipped with the knowledge to spot signs of sexual harassment and violence, feel empowered to report incidents to police and community leaders. Omkar notes that teenage girls trust him because they know his ECF experience means he has the education and the compassion to help them when they feel unsafe…</em>\r\n<em>Omkar is already passing his knowledge on to the younger generation. With a male friend, he coaches 10 boys who are too young to join the AFE programme in gender equality concepts – teaching them not to catcall girls, to help out around the house, and to speak up if they see men being abusive.</em>\r\n<em>“We want to encourage the boys to take initiative and we are there to support them and everything that they do,” says Suhasini Mukherjee, programme associate at ECF.””</em>', 'The boys learning anti-sexism in India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-boys-learning-anti-sexism-in-india', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:06:49', '2020-03-16 09:06:49', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3037', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3038, 1, '2020-03-16 08:57:20', '2020-03-16 08:57:20', 'In India we have almost become indifferent to reading about crimes against women. For decades now the daily news has contained stories of rape &amp; brutality against women. The authorities seem to be stirred into life only if a middle class woman is raped and then murdered. Given the scale of the issue and given the paucity of resources of the Indian state it would be a miracle of the Indian state is able to do anything to reverse this grim trend. Relief, if it comes, will have to come from social change and social reform. In this context, this story from the BBC points to an encouraging trend: <em>“Omkar is one of more than 5,000 boys in Pune, India to participate in a programme called Action for Equality (AFE). Launched by the Equal Community Foundation (ECF) in 2011, the AFE programme is seeking to fight violence against women – with teenaged boys.”</em>\r\nWhy does Action for Equality focus on this specific group – teenage boys? “Battling for gender equality is like fighting the current of a rushing river, says Christina Furtado, executive director of ECF. <em>“We\'ve been telling [women], ‘It’s very important for you to fight for your rights.’ We\'ve managed to pull a few women out and put them on a life raft,” she says.</em>\r\n<em>But when solutions focus solely on women, “what you\'re not doing is not changing the flow of the current,” she says. “Because at the end of the day, educated and empowered women will go home with violent and abusive men.”</em>\r\n<em>This is why programmes like this have such an important role to play. Even so, conservative Pune, India may seem an especially unlikely place to launch a grassroots campaign for gender equality, let alone a place where teenage boys would lead the charge. In low-income, traditional communities like this one, both boys and girls often are bound by old-fashioned customs that dictate that housework is women’s work – and that men can sexually, verbally, and physically abuse women without consequence.</em>\r\n<em>In AFE, boys aged 13 to 17 spend 43 weeks studying education curricula designed to teach them about gender-based violence, disrupt gender norms, and make their communities more equitable and safer for women and girls.”</em>\r\nSo how does the program work and is it scalable? <em>“The programme’s facilitators are people who teenage boys tend to look up to: young men in their 20s. ECF requires participants to attend 60% of sessions and to complete a capstone “action project” – a community solution that they then implement. About 80% of participants graduate.</em>\r\n<em>Eighteen-year-old Akshay initially joined the AFE programme in 2014 as a volunteer to conduct the sessions. He later enrolled in it himself, along with his two brothers. Since he graduated from the programme, he says, he has become a role model for other boys in the community…But both Omkar and Kanta [his mother], equipped with the knowledge to spot signs of sexual harassment and violence, feel empowered to report incidents to police and community leaders. Omkar notes that teenage girls trust him because they know his ECF experience means he has the education and the compassion to help them when they feel unsafe…</em>\r\n<em>Omkar is already passing his knowledge on to the younger generation. With a male friend, he coaches 10 boys who are too young to join the AFE programme in gender equality concepts – teaching them not to catcall girls, to help out around the house, and to speak up if they see men being abusive.</em>\r\n<em>“We want to encourage the boys to take initiative and we are there to support them and everything that they do,” says Suhasini Mukherjee, programme associate at ECF.””</em>', 'The boys learning anti-sexism in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3037-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 08:57:20', '2020-03-16 08:57:20', '', 3037, 'https://marcellus.in/3037-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3039, 1, '2020-03-15 08:57:34', '2020-03-15 08:57:34', 'We are living in such times that WTF is no longer the most popular three letter acronym featuring the letters W and F, having been surpassed by WFH – Working From Home. Some industries such as tech and media have been used to people working from home over the years but never has this phenomenon been implemented at such a wide scale across industries and geographies. There are prophecies galore that by the end of it all, people might embrace this to an extent that it becomes the norm having appreciated the benefits of it all. In this piece in The Atlantic, Derek Thompson reckons it isn’t as straight forward – there are pitfalls to working from home, primarily around social and psychological, especially in a world with increasing prevalence of depression further ‘social distancing’ on a permanent basis could cause more harm than good.\r\n<em>“Even before the pandemic struck, remote work was accelerating in the U.S. The share of the labor force that works from home tripled in the past 15 years, according to the Federal Reserve. Two of the accelerants are obvious: living costs in metros with the highest density of knowledge workers, and technology, such as Slack and Microsoft Teams, that moves collaboration and gossip online.</em>\r\n<em>But the early returns from America’s home offices are mixed. In The New York Times, Kevin Roose writes from his makeshift quarantine bunker that remote work impedes the creative sparks that fly when we are interacting with actual people rather than their thumbnails on Slack.</em>\r\n<em>In the 2016 paper “Does Working From Home Work?” a team of economists looked at Ctrip, a 16,000-employee Chinese travel agency that had randomly assigned a small group of its call-center staff to work from home. At first, the experiment seemed like a win-win for workers and owners. Employees worked more, quit less, and said they were happier with their job. Meanwhile, the company saved more than $1,000 per employee on reduced office space. But when Ctrip rolled out this policy to the entire company, it caused a mess. One complaint swamped everything else: Loneliness.</em>\r\n<em>Beyond lost creativity and companionship, the gravest threat to many companies from remote work is that it breaks the social bonds that are necessary to productive teamwork. Several years ago, Google conducted a research project on its most productive groups. The company found that the most important quality was “psychological safety”—a confidence that team members wouldn’t embarrass or punish individuals for speaking up.”</em>\r\nHowever, one can’t overlook the benefits of eliminating commute times and the consequent benefits for climate change.\r\n<em>“As jobs concentrate in downtown areas without affordable housing, workers’ homes are pushed into the far suburbs. The American commute is a psychological and environmental scourge that increases depression, divorce, and fossil-fuel emissions. The average commute in the U.S. recently hit an all-time record of 27 minutes one-way. That’s almost an hour a day spent away from friends and family, in a machine coughing fumes into the sky. Allowing people to work closer to home—whether at a coffee shop, in a co-working space, or on a couch—could be a win for work-life balance, for happiness, and for the biosphere.”</em>\r\nDerek also brings out a more nuanced benefit of WFH – diversity, where industries don’t necessarily have to draw employees from the same geographic and hence likely socioeconomic clusters.\r\n“<em>Another downside of headquarter-based work is that the concentration of labor in high-income metros can attract people from the same socioeconomic pool, who share the same ideas and blind spots. “One thing that’s not talked about enough is that being distributed, you have a less homogenous culture,” said Gabriel Weinberg, the founder of the search engine DuckDuckGo, whose workforce is distributed around the world. “Working remotely, people are never forced to get a drink after work. You’re not substituting work socialness for community socialness. They are in their own communities. So you’re really getting real diversity of thought.””</em>', 'The Coronavirus Is Creating a Huge, Stressful Experiment in Working From Home', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-coronavirus-is-creating-a-huge-stressful-experiment-in-working-from-home', '', '', '2020-03-16 08:59:03', '2020-03-16 08:59:03', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3039', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3040, 1, '2020-03-16 08:59:03', '2020-03-16 08:59:03', 'We are living in such times that WTF is no longer the most popular three letter acronym featuring the letters W and F, having been surpassed by WFH – Working From Home. Some industries such as tech and media have been used to people working from home over the years but never has this phenomenon been implemented at such a wide scale across industries and geographies. There are prophecies galore that by the end of it all, people might embrace this to an extent that it becomes the norm having appreciated the benefits of it all. In this piece in The Atlantic, Derek Thompson reckons it isn’t as straight forward – there are pitfalls to working from home, primarily around social and psychological, especially in a world with increasing prevalence of depression further ‘social distancing’ on a permanent basis could cause more harm than good.\r\n<em>“Even before the pandemic struck, remote work was accelerating in the U.S. The share of the labor force that works from home tripled in the past 15 years, according to the Federal Reserve. Two of the accelerants are obvious: living costs in metros with the highest density of knowledge workers, and technology, such as Slack and Microsoft Teams, that moves collaboration and gossip online.</em>\r\n<em>But the early returns from America’s home offices are mixed. In The New York Times, Kevin Roose writes from his makeshift quarantine bunker that remote work impedes the creative sparks that fly when we are interacting with actual people rather than their thumbnails on Slack.</em>\r\n<em>In the 2016 paper “Does Working From Home Work?” a team of economists looked at Ctrip, a 16,000-employee Chinese travel agency that had randomly assigned a small group of its call-center staff to work from home. At first, the experiment seemed like a win-win for workers and owners. Employees worked more, quit less, and said they were happier with their job. Meanwhile, the company saved more than $1,000 per employee on reduced office space. But when Ctrip rolled out this policy to the entire company, it caused a mess. One complaint swamped everything else: Loneliness.</em>\r\n<em>Beyond lost creativity and companionship, the gravest threat to many companies from remote work is that it breaks the social bonds that are necessary to productive teamwork. Several years ago, Google conducted a research project on its most productive groups. The company found that the most important quality was “psychological safety”—a confidence that team members wouldn’t embarrass or punish individuals for speaking up.”</em>\r\nHowever, one can’t overlook the benefits of eliminating commute times and the consequent benefits for climate change.\r\n<em>“As jobs concentrate in downtown areas without affordable housing, workers’ homes are pushed into the far suburbs. The American commute is a psychological and environmental scourge that increases depression, divorce, and fossil-fuel emissions. The average commute in the U.S. recently hit an all-time record of 27 minutes one-way. That’s almost an hour a day spent away from friends and family, in a machine coughing fumes into the sky. Allowing people to work closer to home—whether at a coffee shop, in a co-working space, or on a couch—could be a win for work-life balance, for happiness, and for the biosphere.”</em>\r\nDerek also brings out a more nuanced benefit of WFH – diversity, where industries don’t necessarily have to draw employees from the same geographic and hence likely socioeconomic clusters.\r\n“<em>Another downside of headquarter-based work is that the concentration of labor in high-income metros can attract people from the same socioeconomic pool, who share the same ideas and blind spots. “One thing that’s not talked about enough is that being distributed, you have a less homogenous culture,” said Gabriel Weinberg, the founder of the search engine DuckDuckGo, whose workforce is distributed around the world. “Working remotely, people are never forced to get a drink after work. You’re not substituting work socialness for community socialness. They are in their own communities. So you’re really getting real diversity of thought.””</em>', 'The Coronavirus Is Creating a Huge, Stressful Experiment in Working From Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3039-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 08:59:03', '2020-03-16 08:59:03', '', 3039, 'https://marcellus.in/3039-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3041, 1, '2020-03-15 09:00:43', '2020-03-15 09:00:43', 'Elon Musk reckons the ‘Coronavirus panic is dumb’. Several others have criticised the panic reaction of bringing normal activity to a halt as a significant drag on the economy which could have bigger ramifications on people’s lives through loss of livelihood and related stress. However, this article provides a practical reason to adopt ‘social distancing’ – <em>“closing schools, canceling mass gatherings, working from home, self-quarantine, self-isolation, avoiding crowds — to keep the virus from spreading fast.” </em>Keeping the virus from spreading obviously buys time for the world to come up with a cure or a vaccine but a more serious benefit from the here and now is easing the pressure on the healthcare system. The gut wrenching <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05b9bd0d35&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D05b9bd0d35%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHr0Fi_CilgF-gQVeVYAM_W5HxXKA\">stories</a> from Italy about how doctors have had to choose among patients that they would rescue and those that would be left to die simply because there weren’t enough ventilators should be reason enough to adopt measures of ‘social distancing’ with utmost seriousness. Here’s some math about the capacity of the US Healthcare system. One would shudder to imagine what the equivalent arithmetic for India will be.\r\n<em>“There are serious concerns about the US system’s capacity to handle a severe outbreak. Covid-19 is a respiratory illness and in its most serious stages can require patients with pneumonia to be put on a ventilator. But there might not be enough ventilators to meet that need if the outbreak becomes too widespread.</em>\r\n<em>The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security reported in 2018 that, according to US government estimates, about 65,000 people in the United States would require ventilation in an outbreak similar to the flu pandemics of 1957-1958 (which killed 116,000 people in the US) and 1968 (which killed 100,000 Americans).</em>\r\n<em>The maximum number of ventilators that could be put in the field in the United States is about 160,000. So under those scenarios, there would theoretically be enough capacity to meet the need.</em>\r\n<em>But if the coronavirus outbreak gets worse, we could quickly run out. In a situation more similar to the Spanish flu pandemic (675,000 dead in the US), about 742,500 people in the United States would require ventilation, according to government estimates. We don’t have that many.</em>\r\n<em>The health system is much more than ventilators, of course, and the concerns about capacity apply to the rest of it, too. As HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn reported, US hospitals have about 45,000 beds in their intensive care units. In a moderate outbreak, about 200,000 patients may need to be put in the ICU, but under a more severe outbreak, it could be nearly 3 million.”</em>', 'How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-canceled-events-and-self-quarantines-save-lives-in-one-chart', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:04:18', '2020-03-16 09:04:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3041', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3042, 1, '2020-03-16 09:00:43', '2020-03-16 09:00:43', 'Elon Musk reckons the ‘Coronavirus panic is dumb’. Several others have criticised the panic reaction of bringing normal activity to a halt as a significant drag on the economy which could have bigger ramifications on people’s lives through loss of livelihood and related stress. However, this article provides a practical reason to adopt ‘social distancing’ – <em>“closing schools, canceling mass gatherings, working from home, self-quarantine, self-isolation, avoiding crowds — to keep the virus from spreading fast.” </em>Keeping the virus from spreading obviously buys time for the world to come up with a cure or a vaccine but a more serious benefit from the here and now is easing the pressure on the healthcare system. The gut wrenching <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=05b9bd0d35&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D05b9bd0d35%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHr0Fi_CilgF-gQVeVYAM_W5HxXKA\">stories</a> from Italy about how doctors have had to choose among patients that they would rescue and those that would be left to die simply because there weren’t enough ventilators should be reason enough to adopt measures of ‘social distancing’ with utmost seriousness. Here’s some math about the capacity of the US Healthcare system. One would shudder to imagine what the equivalent arithmetic for India will be.\r\n<em>“There are serious concerns about the US system’s capacity to handle a severe outbreak. Covid-19 is a respiratory illness and in its most serious stages can require patients with pneumonia to be put on a ventilator. But there might not be enough ventilators to meet that need if the outbreak becomes too widespread.</em>\r\n<em>The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security reported in 2018 that, according to US government estimates, about 65,000 people in the United States would require ventilation in an outbreak similar to the flu pandemics of 1957-1958 (which killed 116,000 people in the US) and 1968 (which killed 100,000 Americans).</em>\r\n<em>The maximum number of ventilators that could be put in the field in the United States is about 160,000. So under those scenarios, there would theoretically be enough capacity to meet the need.</em>\r\n<em>But if the coronavirus outbreak gets worse, we could quickly run out. In a situation more similar to the Spanish flu pandemic (675,000 dead in the US), about 742,500 people in the United States would require ventilation, according to government estimates. We don’t have that many.</em>\r\n<em>The health system is much more than ventilators, of course, and the concerns about capacity apply to the rest of it, too. As HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn reported, US hospitals have about 45,000 beds in their intensive care units. In a moderate outbreak, about 200,000 patients may need to be put in the ICU, but under a more severe outbreak, it could be nearly 3 million.”</em>', 'How canceled events and self-quarantines save lives, in one chart', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3041-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:00:43', '2020-03-16 09:00:43', '', 3041, 'https://marcellus.in/3041-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3043, 1, '2020-03-15 09:01:04', '2020-03-15 09:01:04', 'Losses in the stock market are a feature, not a bug – and we have another grim yet timely reminder of that. When Charlie Munger was asked in 2009 about how worried he was that stocks had fallen by 50%, he is reported to have said <em>“Zero. This is the third time Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it\'s in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact, you can argue that if you\'re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you\'re not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you\'re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.\"</em>\r\nIn this piece, Ben Carlson gives hard data about market drawdowns to show how much of a norm it is actually to see such losses.\r\n<em>“So roughly 53% of all calendar years for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 have experienced a double-digit correction. And more than 91% of the time there was at least a 5% correction or worse.</em>\r\n<em>Thirty-seven of the past 70 years have seen an intra-year double-digit correction in the stock market. Surprisingly, 22 out of those 37 years saw stocks finish the year with a positive return overall. And 13 of those years with double-digit corrections saw the S&amp;P finish out the year with double-digit gains.</em>\r\n<em>This means even when stocks have a decent year to the upside, you should plan on experiencing some downside to get there. Years like 2017 and 2019, where the worst drawdowns were -2.8% and -6.8%, respectively, are the outliers not the norm. The market is far more likely to see some serious losses on the way to earning gains than a smooth ride up the entire way.</em>\r\n<em>As an investor, you have to get used to existing in a state of drawdown because that’s where the market is the majority of the time. Since 1928, the S&amp;P 500 has hit new all-time highs in roughly 5% of trading sessions. If we invert this number, that means 95% of the time investors are in a state of drawdown.</em>\r\n<em>This time may feel different because the coronavirus has the potential to wreak havoc on the global economy. No one knows how bad things will get. Volatility begets volatility in the stock market so investors should prepare themselves for more wild swings in price to both the upside and the downside as people work through updates on this outbreak.</em>\r\n<em>But this is nothing new. There has always been volatility in the stock market and there always will be. That’s guaranteed as long as humans are the ones making buy and sell decisions.</em>\r\n<em>In the short-term, the reasons for market sell-offs feel like they matter a lot. In the long-term, investors tend to forget the specific reasons stocks fell in the past.</em>\r\n<em>In the short-term, market downturns feel like they will never end. In the long-term, all corrections look like buying opportunities.</em>\r\n<em>Regardless of how long this correction lasts, to win in the stock market over the long haul you must be willing to lose over the short-term.”</em>', 'The One Guarantee in the Stock Market', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-one-guarantee-in-the-stock-market', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:02:17', '2020-03-16 09:02:17', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3043', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3044, 1, '2020-03-16 09:02:17', '2020-03-16 09:02:17', 'Losses in the stock market are a feature, not a bug – and we have another grim yet timely reminder of that. When Charlie Munger was asked in 2009 about how worried he was that stocks had fallen by 50%, he is reported to have said <em>“Zero. This is the third time Warren and I have seen our holdings in Berkshire Hathaway go down, top tick to bottom tick, by 50%. I think it\'s in the nature of long term shareholding of the normal vicissitudes, in worldly outcomes, and in markets that the long-term holder has his quoted value of his stocks go down by say 50%. In fact, you can argue that if you\'re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you\'re not fit to be a common shareholder, and you deserve the mediocre result you\'re going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament, who can be more philosophical about these market fluctuations.\"</em>\r\nIn this piece, Ben Carlson gives hard data about market drawdowns to show how much of a norm it is actually to see such losses.\r\n<em>“So roughly 53% of all calendar years for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 have experienced a double-digit correction. And more than 91% of the time there was at least a 5% correction or worse.</em>\r\n<em>Thirty-seven of the past 70 years have seen an intra-year double-digit correction in the stock market. Surprisingly, 22 out of those 37 years saw stocks finish the year with a positive return overall. And 13 of those years with double-digit corrections saw the S&amp;P finish out the year with double-digit gains.</em>\r\n<em>This means even when stocks have a decent year to the upside, you should plan on experiencing some downside to get there. Years like 2017 and 2019, where the worst drawdowns were -2.8% and -6.8%, respectively, are the outliers not the norm. The market is far more likely to see some serious losses on the way to earning gains than a smooth ride up the entire way.</em>\r\n<em>As an investor, you have to get used to existing in a state of drawdown because that’s where the market is the majority of the time. Since 1928, the S&amp;P 500 has hit new all-time highs in roughly 5% of trading sessions. If we invert this number, that means 95% of the time investors are in a state of drawdown.</em>\r\n<em>This time may feel different because the coronavirus has the potential to wreak havoc on the global economy. No one knows how bad things will get. Volatility begets volatility in the stock market so investors should prepare themselves for more wild swings in price to both the upside and the downside as people work through updates on this outbreak.</em>\r\n<em>But this is nothing new. There has always been volatility in the stock market and there always will be. That’s guaranteed as long as humans are the ones making buy and sell decisions.</em>\r\n<em>In the short-term, the reasons for market sell-offs feel like they matter a lot. In the long-term, investors tend to forget the specific reasons stocks fell in the past.</em>\r\n<em>In the short-term, market downturns feel like they will never end. In the long-term, all corrections look like buying opportunities.</em>\r\n<em>Regardless of how long this correction lasts, to win in the stock market over the long haul you must be willing to lose over the short-term.”</em>', 'The One Guarantee in the Stock Market', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3043-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:02:17', '2020-03-16 09:02:17', '', 3043, 'https://marcellus.in/3043-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3045, 1, '2020-03-15 09:02:26', '2020-03-15 09:02:26', 'This piece is a review of a documentary that began streaming on Amazon Prime Video earlier this week – a documentary about the resurgence of Australian cricket from the ignominy of the ‘sandpaper gate’ (the ball tampering scandal in South Africa) to winning the Ashes last year. The series stands out for the seamless access the producers have got into the dressing rooms of a team going through what is clearly a massively emotional journey, highlighting a new genre of content for today’s audience.\r\n<em>“Whether you love or despise the Australian cricket team, The Test on Amazon Prime, charting the 18 months from the Cape Town sandpaper scandal to retaining the Ashes at the end of the 2019 English summer, provides a compelling insight into the workings of present-day international cricket. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect to the eight-part docuseries is how it represents Cricket Australia taking a big step forward in the content arms race.</em>\r\n<em>Since the 2013/14 Ashes and the introduction of <a href=\"http://cricket.com.au/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://cricket.com.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGzyRGLB46CxEei9EPf0bkQS9hMYw\">cricket.com.au</a>, dubbed their “independent media arm” at the time (the independent tag long since jettisoned), CA have been at the forefront of pushing their own brand. The success of that has largely been through their in-house productions.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Content creation has been the name of the game for the last ten years and, when it comes to online cricket media, <a href=\"http://cricket.com.au/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://cricket.com.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGzyRGLB46CxEei9EPf0bkQS9hMYw\">cricket.com.au</a> have been at the forefront when it comes to online streaming an social media. Much of that is to do with healthy budgets, emanating from CA headquarters, and the work of a dedicated team who operate in tandem at matches and remotely.</em>\r\n<em>…Still, it is comfortably the best of its kind: a cricket documentary that shows us a World Cup and an Ashes through the prism of a once-great team trying to find a way to be itself by shedding much of what made it reviled yet great.</em>\r\n<em>“We like them and, in a way, that’s more important than being proud of them”, is how Australian cricket writer and historian Gideon Haigh sums it up at the end. It was not made with England fans in mind, but it will certainly win a few of them over.</em>\r\n<em>But perhaps its most far-reaching impact will be showing governing bodies with cash, like the England &amp; Wales Cricket Board and the Board of Control for Cricket in India, how wedding access on their terms with outside creativity can develop a product that can compete for eyes in a saturated market.”</em>', 'The Test offers plenty even for those who hate the Australian cricket team', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-test-offers-plenty-even-for-those-who-hate-the-australian-cricket-team', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:03:46', '2020-03-16 09:03:46', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3045', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3046, 1, '2020-03-16 09:03:46', '2020-03-16 09:03:46', 'This piece is a review of a documentary that began streaming on Amazon Prime Video earlier this week – a documentary about the resurgence of Australian cricket from the ignominy of the ‘sandpaper gate’ (the ball tampering scandal in South Africa) to winning the Ashes last year. The series stands out for the seamless access the producers have got into the dressing rooms of a team going through what is clearly a massively emotional journey, highlighting a new genre of content for today’s audience.\r\n<em>“Whether you love or despise the Australian cricket team, The Test on Amazon Prime, charting the 18 months from the Cape Town sandpaper scandal to retaining the Ashes at the end of the 2019 English summer, provides a compelling insight into the workings of present-day international cricket. But perhaps the most intriguing aspect to the eight-part docuseries is how it represents Cricket Australia taking a big step forward in the content arms race.</em>\r\n<em>Since the 2013/14 Ashes and the introduction of <a href=\"http://cricket.com.au/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://cricket.com.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGzyRGLB46CxEei9EPf0bkQS9hMYw\">cricket.com.au</a>, dubbed their “independent media arm” at the time (the independent tag long since jettisoned), CA have been at the forefront of pushing their own brand. The success of that has largely been through their in-house productions.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Content creation has been the name of the game for the last ten years and, when it comes to online cricket media, <a href=\"http://cricket.com.au/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://cricket.com.au&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584422311364000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGzyRGLB46CxEei9EPf0bkQS9hMYw\">cricket.com.au</a> have been at the forefront when it comes to online streaming an social media. Much of that is to do with healthy budgets, emanating from CA headquarters, and the work of a dedicated team who operate in tandem at matches and remotely.</em>\r\n<em>…Still, it is comfortably the best of its kind: a cricket documentary that shows us a World Cup and an Ashes through the prism of a once-great team trying to find a way to be itself by shedding much of what made it reviled yet great.</em>\r\n<em>“We like them and, in a way, that’s more important than being proud of them”, is how Australian cricket writer and historian Gideon Haigh sums it up at the end. It was not made with England fans in mind, but it will certainly win a few of them over.</em>\r\n<em>But perhaps its most far-reaching impact will be showing governing bodies with cash, like the England &amp; Wales Cricket Board and the Board of Control for Cricket in India, how wedding access on their terms with outside creativity can develop a product that can compete for eyes in a saturated market.”</em>', 'The Test offers plenty even for those who hate the Australian cricket team', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3045-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:03:46', '2020-03-16 09:03:46', '', 3045, 'https://marcellus.in/3045-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3047, 1, '2020-03-16 09:06:49', '2020-03-16 09:06:49', 'In India we have almost become indifferent to reading about crimes against women. For decades now the daily news has contained stories of rape &amp; brutality against women. The authorities seem to be stirred into life only if a middle class woman is raped and then murdered. Given the scale of the issue and given the paucity of resources of the Indian state it would be a miracle of the Indian state is able to do anything to reverse this grim trend. Relief, if it comes, will have to come from social change and social reform. In this context, this story from the BBC points to an encouraging trend: <em>“Omkar is one of more than 5,000 boys in Pune, India to participate in a programme called Action for Equality (AFE). Launched by the Equal Community Foundation (ECF) in 2011, the AFE programme is seeking to fight violence against women – with teenaged boys.”</em>\r\nWhy does Action for Equality focus on this specific group – teenage boys? “Battling for gender equality is like fighting the current of a rushing river, says Christina Furtado, executive director of ECF. <em>“We\'ve been telling [women], ‘It’s very important for you to fight for your rights.’ We\'ve managed to pull a few women out and put them on a life raft,” she says.</em>\r\n<em>But when solutions focus solely on women, “what you\'re not doing is not changing the flow of the current,” she says. “Because at the end of the day, educated and empowered women will go home with violent and abusive men.”</em>\r\n<em>This is why programmes like this have such an important role to play. Even so, conservative Pune, India may seem an especially unlikely place to launch a grassroots campaign for gender equality, let alone a place where teenage boys would lead the charge. In low-income, traditional communities like this one, both boys and girls often are bound by old-fashioned customs that dictate that housework is women’s work – and that men can sexually, verbally, and physically abuse women without consequence.</em>\r\n<em>In AFE, boys aged 13 to 17 spend 43 weeks studying education curricula designed to teach them about gender-based violence, disrupt gender norms, and make their communities more equitable and safer for women and girls.”</em>\r\nSo how does the program work and is it scalable? <em>“The programme’s facilitators are people who teenage boys tend to look up to: young men in their 20s. ECF requires participants to attend 60% of sessions and to complete a capstone “action project” – a community solution that they then implement. About 80% of participants graduate.</em>\r\n<em>Eighteen-year-old Akshay initially joined the AFE programme in 2014 as a volunteer to conduct the sessions. He later enrolled in it himself, along with his two brothers. Since he graduated from the programme, he says, he has become a role model for other boys in the community…But both Omkar and Kanta [his mother], equipped with the knowledge to spot signs of sexual harassment and violence, feel empowered to report incidents to police and community leaders. Omkar notes that teenage girls trust him because they know his ECF experience means he has the education and the compassion to help them when they feel unsafe…</em>\r\n<em>Omkar is already passing his knowledge on to the younger generation. With a male friend, he coaches 10 boys who are too young to join the AFE programme in gender equality concepts – teaching them not to catcall girls, to help out around the house, and to speak up if they see men being abusive.</em>\r\n<em>“We want to encourage the boys to take initiative and we are there to support them and everything that they do,” says Suhasini Mukherjee, programme associate at ECF.””</em>', 'The boys learning anti-sexism in India', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3037-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-16 09:06:49', '2020-03-16 09:06:49', '', 3037, 'https://marcellus.in/3037-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3049, 1, '2020-03-18 09:32:01', '2020-03-18 09:32:01', '\"<em>Sometimes we are asked what it is we do all day – given we are not trading in and out of our holdings. One answer is that we are watching very closely the<strong> </strong>capital allocation<strong> </strong>decisions taken by the boards of the companies we hold – knowing that cumulatively and over time it is the calibre of those decisions that</em> <em>will determine the long term success, or otherwise, of our own investment decisions, made with your capital.</em><em>” – <strong>Nick Train, co-founder of Lindsell Train Fund Management. (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=23aff282b0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D23aff282b0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584606543117000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHgtlfWZ-j0FboYp15vuUhTtb5ng\">Link</a>)</strong></em>\r\n\r\nAs we approach the end of FY20 and look back at the past two and half decades i.e. the time since Financial Services in India started becoming part of the private sector, there have been a select few individuals who have managed to successfully steer their organisations through the multiple crises that the Indian Financial Services industry has seen. In a series of blogs, we delve deeper into the decisions taken by these bankers not only because they have created financial institutions which have endured the test of time but also because they have had a major impact on the evolution of the broader Financial Services industry. While these men come from different backgrounds, they share two common traits which we believe are key to creating wealth – a high level of integrity and prudent capital allocation skills. In part I of this series we delve deeper into the key decisions made by the world’s wealthiest self-made banker – Uday Kotak.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3050 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/March-Blog.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"565\" height=\"321\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Uday Kotak’s entrepreneurial spirit and smart capital allocation</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWarren Buffett’s observation: <em>“No matter how great the talent or efforts, some things just take time. You can’t produce a baby in one month by making nine women pregnant”</em> is apt for the financial services industry. As many who have tried and miserably failed have realised, Financial Services businesses cannot be built in a few years or even a decade’s time. Coming from a family of Kutchi Gujarati traders, Uday Kotak refused to join his family business and started a bill discounting business in 1985 from funds borrowed from friends and family. Uday Kotak’s entrepreneurial journey from the founding of Kotak Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. (KMFSL) in his family’s 300 square foot office to recently claiming the spot for the richest self-made banker in the world has been a journey of 35 years.\r\n\r\nTo cite an early example of Uday Kotak’s entrepreneurial acumen, in the mid-1980s when bank spreads used to be 10-11%, banks used to borrow at 6% and lend at 17%. Nelco, a Tata company used to borrow money for 90 days at 17% through bill discounting. Uday Kotak convinced his friends and family to lend him money at 12% which was in turn lent out to Nelco at 16% and that is how the bill discounting business started. It was a win-win for everyone – the depositors earned 12% on Tata risk vs. the 6% they earned on deposits and Nelco could borrow at 16% i.e. at 100 bps lower.\r\n\r\nAt the receiving end of another example of Uday Kotak’s innovation and customer centricity was Citibank. Citibank was the only bank disbursing car loans in 1989 and the lending rate used to be 27-28%. There was no way KMFSL could compete against the might of Citibank, but Citibank had one constraint – they could lend against cars only when the cars were available, and in the 1980s cars were in short supply in India. So, KMFSL started buying and booking cars in advance, because it usually took 6-8 months for cars to get delivered. Whenever a customer wanted a car, KMFSL could give a car along with the finance. They didn’t charge the customer a premium on the car, but the customer had to take a loan from KMFSL. The car finance business was where the spread was, and KMFSL was able to compete with a giant like Citi within 3 years of its incorporation.\r\n\r\nOver the years, Uday Kotak has shown admirable capital allocation skills, whether it is in terms of distributing dividends, acquisitions, entering into joint ventures, buying stakes of JV partners or timing of QIPs. We have elaborated here are some of the key capital allocation decisions taken by Uday Kotak over the years:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Mastering the virtuous cycle of generating and redeploying profits:</strong> Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB) has had an average dividend payout ratio (i.e. % of profits paid out as dividends) of 2.9% over the last decade (FY09 to FY19). Since capital being the raw material of a financial services business, rather than distributing it as dividends, KMB has redeployed capital and generated an average return on equity of 14.5% on that capital over FY09 to FY19.  To put things into perspective, the bank has cumulatively paid total dividends of ~Rs. 1,000 Cr (including Dividend Distribution Tax) on total profits of over Rs 34,800 Cr over FY09-19. As a result of the bank being able to redeploy 97% of its profits and consistently earn a decent RoE on it, KMB’s EPS grew at a ~23% CAGR during this time. This EPS growth has played a key role KMB’s share price growing at a CAGR of 34­­% over FY09-19.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The merger that propelled KMB into the big league:</strong> KMB’s merger with ING Vysya Bank in April, 2015 was then the largest merger in India’s banking industry. Given the size of the merger, a misjudgement would have haunted Uday Kotak for years to come. KMB entered into a share swap deal when its stock was trading at ~4.5x P/B and ING was trading at 2.2x P/B thus effectively achieving multiple objectives at the same time: firstly, KMB didn’t have to pay any cash and hence diluted its stake by only 15%; secondly Uday Kotak pared down his promoter holding as required by RBI; thirdly KMB acquired a large SME loan book (the SME segment became 20% of the bank’s loan book from 7% prior to the acquisition); and fourthly, KMB got a large branch network in Southern India.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Entering into joint ventures with the global leaders:</strong> Uday Kotak seems to have mastered the art of finding the right JV partners early on in his journey. Uday Kotak’s strategy playbook of entering into joint ventures with leading global players and then buying them out at the right time has been successfully executed with firms like Goldman Sachs, Ford and Old Mutual. The firm’s joint ventures with Goldman Sachs and Ford in 1996 helped it understand global best practices in broking, investment banking and automobile lending to the nascent Indian market. Similarly, KMB entered into a 76:24 joint venture with Old Mutual when it wanted to enter the life insurance business in 2001.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The art of exiting joint ventures amicably:</strong> Not only did KMB learn from the largest and best global players but it was also able to end those joint ventures amicably while retaining those businesses. In an era when being acquired by foreign JV partners was the norm (just 3 months prior to Goldman’s exit from Kotak Securities, Merrill Lynch had bought out Hemendra Kothari’s 50% stake in DSP Merrill Lynch), KMB not only bought out the stakes of Ford, Goldman and Old Mutual but also ended the joint ventures amicably by paying a fair price to all JV partners. Old Mutual earned a 15% CAGR return on its original investment of Rs. 185 Cr when its 26% stake was bought out in 2017. Similarly, Goldman earned a 13% CAGR on its Rs. 100 Cr investment in Kotak Mahindra Capital and Kotak Securities when it was offered Rs. 330 Cr for its 25% stake in each of the entities. By the time KMB offered an exit to its JV partners, not only had Uday Kotak capitalised on the intangibles of imbibing global best practices but had also become India’s number 1 investment bank, brokerage company, automobile lender and the country’s 6<sup>th</sup> largest life insurer. KMB is now the only large Indian bank which owns 100% of all its subsidiaries whether be it broking, investment banking, insurance or asset management.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Taking advantage of the financial crisis to foray into corporate banking:</strong> Until FY09, KMB’s loan book primarily comprised of retail loans (auto loans, CV loans, personal loans, home loans, etc.) with the share of retail loans being as high as 89% in FY08. However, the bank’s loan mix altered significantly post the financial crisis as the bank increased its focus on the corporate segment and cut down its exposure on the high-risk personal loan segment. Corporate loan book growth outpaced overall loan book growth in the coming few years as KMB capitalised on its relatively well capitalised balance sheet and superior asset quality to lend to blue chip corporates during the 2008-09 financial crisis. While the bank’s overall advances grew by 2% in FY09, the corporate loan book growth was 20%. Similarly, overall advances grew 32% in FY10 while the corporate book doubled during that year. As other lenders became risk wary or faced the heat of the financial crisis, it gave KMB the opening it was looking for to enter the balance sheets of large Indian corporates. By the end of FY10, a quarter of KMB’s loan book comprised of corporate loans vs. 11% in FY08 making it a much more stable bank with a balanced loan book mix.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Timing QIPs properly:</strong> Typically, fast growing lenders raise capital every three years or so as their ROE is below their loan book growth thus putting downward pressure on their regulatory capital ratios. In contrast, inspite of its rapid EPS growth, KMB has raised capital in the form of QIPs only twice – in 2007 and in 2017 - thus ensuring minimum dilution by raising equity when markets have been at their peak. On a lighter note, for investors who are still looking for a way to time the markets despite the futility of such a practice (for a more detailed account on the futility of timing the market, please read our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1eba4f28ef&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1eba4f28ef%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584606543117000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTiEqCzcN-hvTe3CLlI6E_hbW6kw\">March 2019</a> newsletter), a QIP from KMB is probably a good sign of the Indian stock market indices being near their peak.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Learning from mistakes:</strong> Even the greatest bankers make mistakes. For example, Wells Fargo, the most celebrated of the modern day American retail banks, suffered from a nasty “cross-selling” scandal a four years ago wherein staff seemed to have forced clients to accept credit and debit cards in order to boost their cross-selling stats (which in turn was linked to their compensation). The episode culminated in Well Fargo’s legendary CEO John Stumpf stepping down. Uday Kotak’s darkest hour seems to have been the late 1990s NBFC crisis in India. During this crisis, when many thousands of NBFCs had to shut down in India, Uday Kotak’s NBFC – KMFSL - too suffered from a funding crunch. The intensity of the resultant crisis seems to have been a key trigger for this Mr Kotak to pursue a banking license in earnest. In 2003, the RBI gave Uday Kotak a universal banking license and the rest is history.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nLending businesses are necessarily highly leveraged businesses with a high reinvestment rate. This unique characteristic of financial businesses further amplifies the impact of capital allocation decisions made by the CEOs of these organisations. As Uday Kotak has shown, good capital allocation can lead to extraordinary results while poor decisions can pose an existential threat to a bank or NBFC. Even though Kotak Mahindra Bank is currently sitting on excess capital, we believe Uday Kotak’s prudent capital allocation skills will ensure that KMB generates returns well above cost of capital in the times to come. Therefore, we continue to focus our energies on finding and staying invested in conservative financial services businesses which have a long historical track record of having made good capital allocation decisions. (for a more detailed account of our Financial Services holdings please read our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=14bf7d557e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D14bf7d557e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1584606543117000&amp;usg=AFQjCNET2JlDbiTilrZsCQ1V5xuYWTr99A\">November 2019</a> newsletter)\r\n\r\nDisclosure: Kotak Mahindra Bank is part of most of Marcellus’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<em>Tej Shah is a portfolio counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers</em>', 'India\'s Kings of Capital - Part I: Uday Kotak', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'indias-kings-of-capital-part-i-uday-kotak', '', '', '2020-03-18 09:32:01', '2020-03-18 09:32:01', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3049', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(3050, 1, '2020-03-18 09:29:26', '2020-03-18 09:29:26', '', 'March Blog', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'march-blog', '', '', '2020-03-18 09:29:26', '2020-03-18 09:29:26', '', 3049, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/March-Blog.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(3052, 1, '2020-03-22 13:54:27', '2020-03-22 13:54:27', '<strong>Four times in the last 40 years, a US recession alongside falling US bond yields and falling oil prices has been followed by a strong economic recovery in India. In fact, India has NEVER witnessed an economic recovery without a US recession preceding it! Now, all three conditions for an Indian economic recovery – a US recession, smashed crude prices and falling US Government bond yields are – in place. Our portfolios – CCP and LCP - are ideally designed to capitalise on such an economic recovery. </strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3053\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Annotation-2020-03-22-192305.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1146\" height=\"352\" />\r\n\r\nFive years ago, in December 2015 in my previous job as a stockbroker, I constructed a note which made me a hate figure in some circles. At a time when the bull run inspired by Prime Minister Modi’s 2014 election victory was still underway, the brokerage which I managed had said that India was heading for an earnings recession as the traditional model of crony capitalist capex was all set to be jammed by Prime Minster Modi and by Mr Rajan (the then RBI Governor). Hence, we said that getting all steamed up about the large cap benchmark indices in India - which were stuffed full of poorly managed crony capitalist companies – was pointless.\r\n\r\nSince December 2015, Nifty EPS growth has been a measly 2.5% per annum. The 17 companies which have exited from the Nifty since then are: Cairn India, Punjab National Bank, BHEL, Idea, Grasim, ACC, Bank of Baroda, Tata Motors DVR, Tata Power, Ambuja Cements, Aurobindo Pharma, Bosch, Lupin, HPCL, Indiabulls Housing and Yes Bank.\r\n\r\nFive years on, in the midst of the Coronavirus driven mayhem, we believe the opposite call is warranted since all the ingredients are now in place for sustained recovery in Indian earnings growth. These ingredients are: (a) cheap oil; (b) cheap money; (c) GST implementation; and (d) the corporate tax rate cuts.\r\n\r\n<strong>Cheap oil: </strong>India’s economic reform process began tentatively in the early 1980s under Mrs. Gandhi and that led to India’s first economic growth spurt between 1982-87 (alongside a tremendous bull run in the Sensex) just as Ronald Reagan was bringing the US out of the 1979-82 recession. India’s second growth spurt came two years after the momentous economic reforms of 1991 and that too triggered a crazy bull run (which Harshad Mehta manipulated to his benefit). Both of these growth spurts and the golden growth period of 2004-08 and again from 2009-11 had a common feature – oil prices crashed at the beginning of the growth spurt alongside falling US Government bond yields (see the periods marked with red chevrons in the chart above). In each of these periods, the oil price crashes and the falling Government bond yields were triggered to a significant extent by a US recession [highlighted in grey in the chart shown above].\r\n\r\nThe correlation between a recession in the world’s largest economy, tanking oil prices and falling US Government bond yields is relatively easy to understand. But why does this cocktail of factors always trigger an economic recovery in India?\r\n\r\n<strong>Cheap money: </strong>Ever since India liberalised its economy in 1991, foreign capital – both FDI and FPI – has been central to financing its growth story largely because over 80% of the flow of domestic savings has been directed towards physical savings (gold &amp; real estate). As a result, capital inflows from America – which accelerate when US bond yields fall sharply – are all important for India. For example, the drop in the US 10 year bond yield from 6.7% in Jan 2000 to 3.4% in June 2003 (<a href=\"https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart\">Link</a>) was crucial for igniting China and India’s growth engines in the 2003-07 boom. Equally important for India’s post-Lehman recovery was the flood of foreign capital which swept through India in 2009 and 2010 (remember those oversubscribed crony capitalist IPOs &amp; QIPs with prospectuses that reeked of corruption).\r\n\r\nThe demise of residential real estate in India as a credible asset class since 2015 has in this regard been useful – it has encouraged households to save through the financial markets. Unfortunately, in parallel, the overall households’ savings rate has fallen in India – from around 25% of income ten years ago to around 17% today. As a result even today, India is dependent on foreign risk capital to finance an economic recovery. Indian lenders can provide debt financing but NOT risk capital. There is only source of risk capital for the Indian economy – the US of A.\r\n\r\nIn this context, it looks likely that the flooring of interest rates by Western central banks could be doubly beneficial for India. Firstly, it is likely to encourage foreign capital to head towards India as and when the Corona panic abates. Secondly, it will encourage the RBI to do cut rates sharply (since CPI inflation is likely to be taken care of by compressed crude prices). If the Government of India also cuts the rates its offers on its savings schemes, this  will help the banks cut their deposit rates and thus their lending rates. Rate transmission can then finally happen in India and SME lending – far more important for spurring GDP growth than crony capitalist capex – could potentially come to life.\r\n\r\nWith Brent crude having corrected from US$83/barrel to US$30/barrel now, with US Treasury yields now below zero and with the US economy now likely to be in recession, key prerequisites of an Indian earnings recovery are in place. But that is not all - two key domestic reforms have also set the scene for a select few companies to benefit from the rapid formalisation of the Indian economy.\r\n\r\n<strong>GST is a massive driver of formalisation: </strong>Out of India’s workforce of around 600 million people, we estimate that around 250 million people work in the retail sector (shops, markets, supermarkets, etc). A further 50 million odd work in the logistics sector (driving trucks and the assorted light vehicles used for last mile delivery). Thus 50% of India’s workforce is associated with the retail sector. Until GST came along, most of these people never paid taxes and hence enjoyed tax free profit margins of 12-15%. With the Government going full throttle to implement GST due to fiscal compulsions, these profit margins have dropped to 2-4%. As a result, the retail sector is now gasping for working capital (for a detailed explanation see our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-dissecting-the-economic-slowdown-in-india/\">17<sup>th</sup> September 2019</a> blog). This in turn is pushing these retailers towards seeking financing from organised lenders. However, these lenders – banks like HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and NBFCs like Bajaj Finance – are discriminating between retailers who sell leading brands like Relaxo, Asian Paints and Pidilite (their retailers seem to be getting channel financing at 8% interest rates) and those who sell laggard brands (such retailers are getting funded at 15%). As a result, the market leaders are gaining market share every quarter from the laggard brands. See, for example Asian Paints’ consistent double digit volume growth in a sector which is unlikely to be growing at more than 6%.\r\n\r\n<strong>Corporate tax rate cuts help the market leaders: </strong>In September last year not only did the Government cut corporate tax rates from 35% to 25%, the Finance Minister also said that if companies committed to fresh capex in new entities, they would get a discounted corporate tax rate of 15%. For market leading firms whose ROCE is well above cost of capital - and hence who generate lots of free cash flow which can be used for capex – this announcement is manna from heaven. Companies like Relaxo, Asian Paints, Nestle and Pidilite anyway double the size of their operations every 3-5 years. Hence their effective corporate tax rates five years hence could be sub-20%. However, for their weaker competitors – who don’t have the financial means to expand capacity – the corporate tax rate is likely to continue to be 25%. A 500bps+ differential in profit margins will decisively swing the balance of power in favour of market leading companies who will then either acquire the smaller companies in their sector (see what Pidilite is doing) or turn them into outsourced suppliers. For more details on the benefit that our investee companies are deriving from these corporate tax rate cuts, read our latest <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/ccps-performance-in-fy20-fully-supported-by-earnings-growth/\">Consistent Compounders</a> newsletter.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nAcross both our portfolios – Consistent Compounders and Little Champs – we continue to stay invested in companies with clean accounts selling essential products &amp; services with high barriers to entry. These companies have high ROCEs (because of their high entry barriers). As a result they have adequate cashflows to not only self-finance their growth but also to buffer their balance sheet from Coronavirus related lockdowns which could continue for several weeks. Supply issues vis a vis China also seem to be largely under control: see this <a href=\"https://mcusercontent.com/52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407/files/10def65e-3628-4875-a39d-9523e4c36496/Marcellus_Webinar_11Mar2020.pdf\">presentation</a> from our fund managers – Rakshit &amp; Ashvin – on this subject.\r\n\r\nIn short, we have created two painstakingly curated portfolios which stand to benefit strongly from an economic recovery in India. We reiterate that the power of cheap money and cheap oil is such that the last 40 years of data shows that a recession in America is a necessary and sufficient condition for a subsequent recovery in India.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, Pidilite, Relaxo and Nestle are part of most of Marcellus’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the Founder and CIO at Marcellus Investment Managers. He’s also the author of “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth” </em>\r\n\r\n<em> </em>', 'The Foundations of India’s Economic Recovery Are in Place', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-foundations-of-indias-economic-recovery-are-in-place', '', '', '2020-03-23 04:39:59', '2020-03-23 04:39:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3052', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(3053, 1, '2020-03-22 13:53:37', '2020-03-22 13:53:37', '', 'Annotation 2020-03-22 192305', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'annotation-2020-03-22-192305', '', '', '2020-03-22 13:53:37', '2020-03-22 13:53:37', '', 3052, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Annotation-2020-03-22-192305.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3181, 1, '2020-04-22 10:59:11', '2020-04-22 10:59:11', '<strong>With communication tools becoming handier, investors are increasingly confronted with the challenge of navigating through the uncontrolled barrage of information hitting them. A large part of this flow is either not relevant or more dangerously, is misinformation. Being sceptical and questioning is a simple and useful tool, as well as an important first step in sifting through what you read or hear, in order to achieve better investing outcomes.</strong>\r\n\r\nThe global spread of Covid-19 has been accompanied by a steady stream of stories from across the world – of tragedies, of victories and of the heroism of frontline workers. And among these stories there has also been a steady stream (a deluge, actually) of misinformation. From <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=140a0e8214&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D140a0e8214%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFmYponFA8ZGqDVctL1T4RVVhql2Q\">conspiracy theories</a> on the virus’ origin, to <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f1fa2969ae&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Df1fa2969ae%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEPgo_DZ4ADaukTItMMZmRJB7TaQA\">home-remedies</a> and exaggerated stories of <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0307f31ead&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0307f31ead%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2f-1aa8kUXnkKpO2MhrDebzocrw\">nature reclaiming itself</a> from humans. The number of different individuals sharing such messages makes you wonder why people do not pause and reflect on the accuracy or question the authenticity of the news before spreading it.\r\n\r\nIn investing, where information is a key input to any analysis, the risk of being swayed by misinformation, or misjudging the information at hand cannot be understated. Given the information overload that we deal with on a daily basis, there is always a chance of a half-truth or a distortion making its way to our desks or Inbox. Such messages might even come with the caption – HoS, or Heard on Street. It so very often happens that you ‘hear’ of some ‘news’ about a company and are considering how to act on it. Meanwhile, others have ‘heard’ it too and the stock moves up. You react and buy, only to realise what you ‘heard’ was completely wrong. This <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9d2083086f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9d2083086f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGoycI4EOyOBcCgqbUIaU_7PzPVHg\">happened recently</a> when investors wanting to bet on the surge in video-conferencing services took the stock of Zoom Technologies up 80% in two hours of trading. Just that the company running the popular Zoom video call service is called Zoom Video Communications.\r\n\r\nWhile we may not be subject matter experts to check the veracity of a received message, we can at least be sceptics before forwarding it. But why is scepticism so hard to maintain in the face of the relentless stream of bogus stories that come our way?\r\n\r\nAs the speed and frequency of information flow rises with newer communication tools, it becomes imperative to treat news flow with a degree of scepticism. However, of the many approaches to analysing information that comes your way, scepticism is arguably the most underrated. It is not that investors are not questioning beings in general, but human nature usually comes in the way, in the form of Optimism Bias and Peer Pressure.\r\n\r\nMost of us suffer the ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c9a4e9dc63&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc9a4e9dc63%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFcKNXzdDxZ-6V5jFAem0ajiCNpuA\">optimism bias</a>’ and tend to overestimate our likelihood of experiencing good events in our lives and underestimate the likelihood of things going bad. After all, no one buys a stock thinking it will fall in price. Often, the optimism bias tempts you with the opportunity to make a quick buck and prompts you to act on news flow without adequate research and assessment of risk vs reward. The bias manifests in many other investing decisions also, including overpaying for assets or taking on more risk than is warranted or mandated by the portfolio. Not that the optimism bias is all bad – research shows that optimism is linked to better well-being as well as long-term success.\r\n\r\nPeer pressure manifests itself in the herd mentality, where it becomes increasingly difficult to bet against the crowd or question the consensus view. It takes rare courage to be seen as an outcast trying to go in a different direction than your friends and colleagues.\r\n\r\nIn the Indian context, practicing scepticism is particularly hard. A sceptical mindset will yield many ‘short’ ideas, most of which one can’t act on due to the shallow Futures &amp; Options market that we have. There are just 144 stocks listed on the exchanges that can be sold short. Let’s say a certain pharma company’s stock is rallying because, you are told, it has a drug that could be effective in treating Covid-19. You are not sure of this claim, so you spend a week verifying it. If your research proves your doubts and the stock is not among the 144 in the F&amp;O list, you’ve spent a pretty useless week. You did avoid a potential loss by being a sceptic but made no actual profits.\r\n\r\nA more general shortcoming of scepticism is that an extreme form leads to paralysis in decision making and you risk end up being just a spectator in the markets rather than an active player. You also need to be careful of not slipping into pessimism. However, a healthy dose of scepticism is, for lack of a better word, healthy. So, what are the ingredients to getting the right dose? Seasoned investors have offered many solutions, of which, here are three easy-to-follow ones.\r\n\r\nThe first is experience. There is no substitute for the ability to build mental models based on past experiences and mistakes. Say, news ‘sources’ claim the government is planning to bring in major reforms in electricity distribution. An analyst tracking the sector for a couple of years might get excited, thinking a solution to the woes of the sector is on its way and will start identifying potential winners. And an analyst tracking the sector for 15 years and having seen little change after at least three such reform measures in the current century will probably not give it as much priority. An investor who does not have the necessary experience will do well to get counsel from others who do.\r\n\r\nThe second is to actively seek out opinions that go against your own views. Doing this helps overcome what is known as the Confirmation Bias – the tendency to value information that confirms your beliefs over information that goes against them. Next time you hear something great about a stock you are contemplating buying, talk to someone who has a negative view on the stock. If you are bullish about the government’s economic policies, read material published by people you consider to be anti-establishment economists. Or follow those on Twitter whose opinion you most disagree with. The ability to consider outcomes other than what you desire is a great tool in objectively evaluating and analysing any kind of information that comes your way.\r\n\r\nThe third is patience. Not reacting to the first piece of information that hits you is an asset, and a highly undervalued one. Mainstream media competition and social media proliferation have made speed of information dissemination a priority over its accuracy. As a result, the first edit of the news ticker might not be an entirely accurate one. A more complete picture, better information and newer perspectives emerge with time and holding one’s horses can end up being very profitable.\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, we try and actively practice being sceptical in general, and questioning of received or popular wisdom, in particular. For example, we have raised doubts on the perceived <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=725eb82009&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D725eb82009%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_Dpskx1XhPAHYCJ2OH29rtqjtjA\">risks of Covid-19 on Indian stocks</a> or the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c23daa1225&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc23daa1225%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHhPQEP-LlOAH02yXby6WNvwXebNg\">relevance of the P/E ratio</a> in the Indian context.\r\n\r\nI am sure all active investors have had to deal with misinformation at some point in time. We would love to hear about your experiences in dealing with it using the right dose of scepticism. We will try and compile a ‘Best Of’ list and write about it in a future blog. Mine was when a friend with many years of professional investing experience suggested buying shares of Chennai Petroleum because Warren Buffett was going to take a stake in the company. It seemed odd that of all investment avenues in the world, Buffett would be interested in a small government-owned oil refinery in India. It turned out he was taking a stake in PetroChina, which, in the investing version of Chinese Whispers got modified to China Petro and then Chennai Petro!\r\n\r\n<em>Salil Desai is a Portfolio Counsellor with Marcellus Investment Managers</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>PS:</strong> To see where an extreme form of scepticism takes you, watch this delightful movie, ‘Ankhon Dekhi’ (streaming on Hotstar). After a disturbing incident, the protagonist decides not to believe anything he has himself not seen, heard or experienced.\r\n\r\nTo read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b4475cad07&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db4475cad07%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587638489179000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGxdyLMHCPwYKeuE2Afibu6xJUemA\">http://marcellus.in</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.', 'Rx – A Dose of Scepticism', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'rx-a-dose-of-scepticism', '', '', '2020-04-22 10:59:11', '2020-04-22 10:59:11', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3181', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(3095, 1, '2020-04-01 11:45:23', '2020-04-01 11:45:23', '<strong>…or how the free market messes with our minds. As we end Marcellus’ first full financial year with healthy absolute and relative returns, we are beginning to comprehend just how profoundly market forces can wreck our clarity of thought. Whilst man’s desire to know his future is primordial, the free market taps into this desire to comprehensively destroy logical thought. We thus end up becoming shadows of our true selves – rational people reduced to illogical wrecks at best and snake oil salesmen at worst. How then can we avoid this fate? A new book shows us the way forward.</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"wp-image-3097 size-full alignleft\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Capture.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"393\" height=\"537\" />\r\n\r\n<em>“All that we can know is that we know nothing. And that is the sum total of human wisdom.”</em> – <strong>Leo Tolstoy</strong>, ‘War and Peace” (1867)\r\n\r\n<em>“I am not in the business of predicting general stock market or business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should not be in the partnership.” </em>– <strong>Warren Buffett’s </strong>‘Partnership Letter’ (1966)(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6a57175241&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6a57175241%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585824342312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_mEyncrg2EDsOeYKj69-5_LX0JQ\">Link</a>)\r\n\r\nOn 31<sup>st</sup> March 2020, Marcellus Investment Managers ended its first full financial year. Whilst our fund managers will write to you next week with details of how our funds performed, in this note, I will dwell on a slightly different retrospective on the year gone by.\r\n\r\nOver the course of the year, we signed up in excess of 2,000 clients and met nearly 6,000 HNWs in India and abroad. In addition, every month tens of thousands of visitors visited our website (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8b58cc578b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8b58cc578b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585824342313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGZ84mBlyooZGrR9Jpqo03AdCWY6w\">www.marcellus.in</a>) and left behind hundreds of questions. In meetings, in conference calls and via emails, we tried to answer as many of these questions as we could, not just because it would lead to more business, but also because this repetitive Q&amp;A compels us to clarify our thinking. As these questions rose to a crescendo during the ongoing Corona virus crisis, we realised that at the core of all of these queries was the same question: <em>“Tell us, what will happen in the financial year that lies ahead of us?”</em>.\r\n\r\nOur response, by and large, is to say that neither we nor anybody else knows what the future will bring. But through the year, especially during the Corona crisis, we realised that not many clients like this answer. That led us to ask ourselves, why is it that intelligent people want us to become latter-day descendants of Nostradamus.\r\n\r\nAt one level, it is easy to see and say that man has always wanted to know the future. That is why the pseudoscience of Astrology is the second oldest profession on this planet. Great kings and ordinary mortals have for many millennia needed the services of a local soothsayer. However, that did not make such people any less able than they naturally were. For example, Julius Caesar’s glory as a great Roman ruler was not dimmed by his use of the Druids for astrological forecasts.\r\n\r\nSo why then today are we rendered vulnerable by our grasping need to know the future? The answer, we believe, lies in the way the free market abuses our basic needs. Let’s illustrate by using our dietary &amp; exercise habits as an example.\r\n\r\nNobody needs to be given an FY21 GDP growth estimate for India or a forecast of how many people will contract Corona virus globally to know what we have to eat in FY21. We know that regardless of how the economy or Covid19 pans out, we need to get our basics right i.e. eat healthy foods like fruits &amp; vegetables, avoid sugary &amp; fatty foods and get regular exercise so that we can build a robust physique. All of this sounds like commonsensical stuff.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately, however, things rarely stay as simple as that. As we become more prosperous as a society, the more propaganda is pumped into our heads as to what constitutes a good diet (is it Keto, Atkins, intermittent fasting, Dubrow, Endomorph? For a full list of currently popular diets see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e6424e84dd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De6424e84dd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585824342313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFSGVB0I56bQJgvT9RA7cVgM2i25Q\">here</a>).\r\n\r\nRationality is thus suspended as we hire dieticians who tell us what to eat knowing full well that they have to come up with something different in order to build a following/client base. The more prosperous we become, the more dieticians the free market supplies to us. Soon elementary eating decisions are no longer elementary (is more Ghee/clarified butter good for me or bad for me?). Conversely, decisions that seemed crazy once upon a time are made to come across as the way to go (eg. should I fast every day for the entire length of my working day and then stuff myself twice a day?).\r\n\r\nThus, something which was a basic skill – how to eat a relatively healthy diet – has become an industry characterised by moral hazard i.e. most of these dieticians have a conflict of interest with us. They are interested in building their differentiated brand and hence their franchise. You &amp; I, on the other hand, are interested in a healthy and easy to follow diet which our grandmothers could have taught us.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n<div>As in dieting, so in the world of investing. As Indian HNWs leave behind the wreckage of their residential real estate investments, the Financial Services sector is throwing at them an array of fund managers. As a result, high risk portfolio constructs are presented to affluent Indians as being conservative/safe investments. For example, a very popular product in India is a “balanced” portfolio of stocks and bonds which promises to give you a 1% dividend every month and therefore a 12% dividend per annum (in a country where a decent corporate bond has a 9% yield and where high dividend yielding stocks give 5% yield).</div>\r\nIn contrast, straightforward portfolio constructs - like investing in a dozen or so clean companies selling essential products/services with little or no competition – are, as we discover every day, sometimes considered to be debatable investments. After all, the critique of our Consistent Compounders Portfolio goes, who knows what will happen to Nestle or Divi’s Lab or Abbott India or Dr Lal Pathlabs in FY21? Maybe people will stop using these products/services due to Covid19 and run away into the forest never to be seen thereafter.\r\n\r\nSo, in these uncertain times, how can we maintain our rationality? Several answers to this question lie in a new book from our guru John Kay and his distinguished friend &amp; co-author, Mervyn King. In <em>“Radical Uncertainty: Decision Making Beyond the Numbers”</em> (2020), the authors take the reader on a riveting tour of contemporary areas of decision analysis, behavioural economics, finance, and policy studies to show what is wrong with the conventional reasoning in the world of business and policymaking. What is their panacea to the pseudoscience of quantitative analysis and management jargon that pervades many investment banks, asset management houses and Boardrooms?\r\n\r\nThis “radical uncertainty” of the title of the book refers to: <strong>(a)</strong> the fact that our understanding of the present is incomplete; and <strong>(b)</strong> our understanding of the future is even more fragmentary. As a result, say the authors, we must understand ourselves and explain the world to others by way of <em>“narrative reasoning…the most powerful mechanism for organizing our imperfect knowledge,”</em> creating stories about the world that assimilate our experiences, the experiences of others, and whatever reliable data we are able to collate in a <em>“world of uncertain futures and unpredictable consequences.”</em> [In case for some unfathomable reason you want to avoid reading this absorbing book, you might want to watch <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a4741481c8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da4741481c8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585824342313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGX91Bu8XhglsHTbaJhkK3MNSBkkw\">this</a> interview of John &amp; Mervyn]\r\n\r\nAn example that John &amp; Mervyn use several times in the book is the probabilistic assessment Barack Obama received when determining whether to launch the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. It wasn’t 100% clear that bin Laden was in that Pakistani compound, and a messed-up operation might have meant war with Pakistan. That bin Laden was killed, and things worked out in the end was by no means assured. Before he greenlighted the operation, Obama used not only the assessment given to him by his generals but also his basic assessment of the downside risk [which wasn’t very high compared to the upside of getting bin Laden].\r\n\r\nWith the far more modest resources available to us, we have, and will continue to do something similar in India. In both Consistent Compounders and Little Champs, we will invest in Indian companies who: <strong>(a)</strong> do not cook their books; <strong>(b)</strong> provide essential products/services; and <strong>(c) </strong>build impregnable barriers to entry. Such a style of investing limits downside risk – we have fallen half as much as the market over the past three months – whilst creating abundant upside opportunity.\r\n\r\nWe will then continue to use narrative reasoning to explain this portfolio construct to our audience. At the end of a milestone year for us we thank you for supporting our small business in its endeavour to provide a useful service to thousands of Indian investors.\r\n\r\nPS: My next book – the concluding instalment of the “Coffee Can” trilogy - will be out in May. So I hope you finish reading “Radical Uncertainty” by then.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: Nestle, Divi’s Lab, Abbott India and Dr Lal Pathlabs are part of most of Marcellus Investment Managers’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea is the Founder and CIO at Marcellus Investment Managers. He’s also the author of “Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth” and “The Unusual Billionaires”</em>', 'Knowing the Unknowable…', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'knowing-the-unknowable', '', '', '2020-04-01 12:09:08', '2020-04-01 12:09:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3095', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(3069, 1, '2020-03-22 05:17:03', '2020-03-22 05:17:03', 'This is an interview in the Nautilus with Dennis Caroll, the man who has been at the forefront of researching potential infectious diseases for humanity orignating from the animal genepool. <em>“For decades, Carroll has been a leading voice about the threat of zoonotic spillover, the transmission of pathogens from nonhuman animals to us. Scientists are confident the current outbreak, which began in Wuhan, China, stemmed from a virus inherent in bats. In 2009, after years of studying infectious diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Carroll formed a USAID program called PREDICT, where he guided trailblazing research into viruses hiding, and waiting to emerge, in animals around the world.”</em>\r\nIn this outspoken interview, Carroll talks about why humanity’s encroachment of spaces hitherto dedicated to the wild have raised the probability of import of infectious diseases as well as echoing Yuval Noah Harari’s concerns on the lack of global coordination in tackling the current situation.\r\n<em>“The first thing to understand is that whatever future threats we’re going to face already exist; they are currently circulating in wildlife. Think of it as viral dark matter. A large pool of viruses are circulating and we don’t become familiar with them until we see a spillover event and people getting ill…. We’ve been able to identify bats as reservoirs for coronaviruses and documented specific bat populations as reservoirs for Ebola virus. We want to understand how each of these bats operate within an ecosystem. Do they have certain behaviors and practices that either keep them remote from or proximal to human populations? The bat population in which we isolated the Ebola virus in West Africa was a species of bat that also tends to co-roost within human housing, so it elevates the opportunity for spillover.</em>\r\n<em>… EcoHealth Alliance, an NGO, and others, looked at all reported outbreaks since 1940. They came to a fairly solid conclusion that we’re looking at an elevation of spillover events two to three times more than what we saw 40 years earlier. That continues to increase, driven by the huge increase in the human population and our expansion into wildlife areas. The single biggest predictor of spillover events is land-use change—more land going to agriculture and more specifically to livestock production.</em>\r\n<em>…This one [Covid-19] has a lower pathogenicity. The lower its virulence, the more likely it’ll become part of an endemic, part of a seasonal event. That’s one of the big things that’s going to be a worry. If it does go quiet over the summer months, then the question’s going to be, “Is it still infecting people?” We could be walking around in the middle of summer with influenza viruses, but they’re not active. They’ve just gone quiet. When the right ecology comes into play, it starts getting cold, and damp, then it starts replicating like crazy. If it’s able to park itself, and not kill its host over the summer months, then we’ve got a virus that has all the telltale signatures of establishing itself as part of our normative landscape, much to our detriment.</em>\r\n<em>…In 2005, during the avian influenza, George W. Bush was on the phone routinely with leaders around the world about how to coordinate a global response. Barack Obama did the same in 2009 for the second H1N1 pandemic and in 2014 for the Ebola epidemic. You saw presidential leadership step up and act as a catalyst for forging a global way forward for a global problem. It has been absolute silence in this White House. I think the only reason the White House is even paying any lip service to this is because the stock market has gone into a free fall. So they’re trying to figure out what are the words they need to say to placate the stock market.</em>\r\n<em>Because the Trump administration is only interested in America first. Populism here and across Europe and elsewhere has fragmented the global networks, which had been so instrumental in being able to bring together a global approach to problems like this. I’ve not seen any reports coming out of the White House that showed that as China was struggling to bring the virus under control, our president reached out to President Xi to talk about how to coordinate action. I’m stunned by the absolute absence of global dialogue for what is a global event. In Europe right now, you would never believe that there was a European Union. From where I sit, it looks like every country is making this up as they go along. Italy isn’t coordinating with Brussels. Brussels isn’t coordinating with Germany. There’s no coherent regional approach to this problem in Europe, even though they have a platform for doing it.”</em>', 'The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-man-who-saw-the-pandemic-coming', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:36:46', '2020-03-24 05:36:46', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3069', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3501, 1, '2020-06-13 05:30:01', '2020-06-13 05:30:01', '', 'Sample - CCP RI PMS Combo V4.1 (ICICI)_compressed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sample-ccp-ri-pms-combo-v4-1-icici_compressed', '', '', '2020-06-13 05:46:26', '2020-06-13 05:46:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Sample-CCP-RI-PMS-Combo-V4.1-ICICI_compressed.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3487, 1, '2020-06-07 04:16:01', '2020-06-07 04:16:01', 'There is plenty of talk in India these days regarding how India can try to pull business away from China in the wake of Covid. Whilst James Crabtree pours cold water on Indian hopes in his piece e in the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d059ce0ed6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd059ce0ed6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEt2I_OnPriWwX6kTJaG9wqAhKZ_A\">Nikkei Asian Review</a>, Sirin Kale comes at the issue from a different and arguably more instructive angle. Kale’s long essay in Wired highlights that manufacturing in China and then selling the produce to the West is no longer just the preserve of Fortune500 companies. In fact, millions of entrepreneurs across the world are earning a living doing just that. Kale’s essay describes a loosely structured community of entrepreneurs – called “dropshippers” – living in the Indonesian island of Bali in a town called Canggu:\r\n<em>“The town, once a stop-off for backpackers en route to Ubud’s yoga studios and hippy scene, has in recent years become a hub for self-described “digital nomads”. In Canggu’s cafés, barefoot westerners run fledgling companies from MacBook Pros. When not talking Facebook ads or cost-per-click, they socialise exclusively with each other….Inside the city’s co-working spaces…people are building business empires selling products they’ve never handled, from countries they’ve never visited, to consumers they’ve never met. Welcome to the world of dropshipping.</em>\r\n<em>Dropshipping is a \"fulfilment\" method. At one end of the supply chain, an entrepreneur identifies a product – usually through Chinese e-commerce platform AliExpress – which they think they can sell to European or American consumers. They create a website using Shopify, and identify and target buyers, typically using Facebook ads, although you will find dropshippers on other platforms, including Instagram, or selling through marketplaces such as online homeware store Wayfair.</em>\r\n<em>When an order is received, the dropshipper purchases the item through AliExpress, and has it shipped directly to the buyer, pocketing their mark-up minus marketing spend. At no point does a dropshipper hold stock: they are simply the middleman in a globalised supply chain.</em>\r\n<em>Successful dropshippers often solve so-called “pain points”. Perhaps you like to go running with your dog, but find holding the lead a chore. A dropshipper finds a hands-free running leash on AliExpress, and targets it via Facebook to dog-loving runners. They’ll create a video showcasing its benefits (videos outperform imagery), and then haunt you with that video until you give in and purchase the item…”</em>\r\nOnce you read this piece you realise that this is simply a variant of the way millions of Indian SME traders do business – they identify a need in India, say cellphone batteries, and then find a source in China who can fulfil that need. The only difference is that Indian SME traders are not using social media as effectively as the dropshippers in Canggu who have turned their offices into Youtube or Facebook broadcasting platforms.\r\nIn a further echo of what happens in India, Dropshipping is finding takers amongst educated Western youth who can’t land the lucrative jobs on Wall Street that they once dreamt off: <em>““Most of my life, I’ve never had strong ambitions to have a lot of money,” says Whitaker. “But I really think if you’re poor or middle-class, you’re going to get fucked in the next 20 years. It’s going to get, like, really bad.” Dropshipping offers these men a way to accrue wealth outside of the stultifying confines of corporate culture, and without formal qualifications – many of the dropshippers I meet are college dropouts.”</em>\r\nThe economics of dropshipping is however depressingly similar to what you see in large industries with low barriers to entry: a few players make all the money and the rest of the riff raff just runs around frenetically whilst earning very little: <em>“Louden, who is 28, has the affable, languid demeanor of the well-mannered Virginia boy…In Chiang Mai, he met a dropshipper who introduced him to remote working. Louden worked for free for other dropshippers to learn the ropes….This year, his Shopify records show he’ll clear about $90,000 (£69,000) in personal profit. He describes dropshipping as a “real-life video game”, albeit one he doesn’t seem to enjoy an awful lot. “When you do dropshipping and Facebook ads, it’s like going to the casino and pressing the slot machine, and based off what happens, that’s how your emotions are going to be,” he says…Plenty of people never make it. You need money to start an online store and invest in marketing, and it’s easy to burn through cash while trying to figure out what sells.”</em>', '‘It’s bullshit’: Inside the weird, get-rich-quick world of dropshipping', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'its-bullshit-inside-the-weird-get-rich-quick-world-of-dropshipping', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:23:27', '2020-06-09 04:23:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3487', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3065, 1, '2020-03-22 12:06:51', '2020-03-22 12:06:51', 'Many of us think that when in our leisure time we read stuff on the internet or on social media, we are not “working”. Such distinctions between work and leisure are actually meaningless says this piece from David Greene which is based on a new book called <em>“Do Nothing: How to Break Away from Overworking, Overdoing and Underliving”</em>. The author of the book, Celeste Headlee, has a very interesting point of view which she backs up with solid research.\r\n<em>“When you collapse on the couch after a long workday and start scrolling through social media, you\'re not doing your tired brain any favors, says author Celeste Headlee.</em>\r\n<em>\"Your brain sees your phone as work,\" she explains. \"To your brain, any time that phone is visible, part of your brain is expending part of its energy on preparing for a notification to come in. It\'s like a runner at the starting gate.\"</em>\r\n<em>Researchers have found that simply having your phone nearby can tax cognition. \"You\'re carrying your work literally everywhere,\" Headlee says. \"As far as your brain and body are concerned, you\'re never taking time off.\"”</em>\r\nOverworking your brain hits productivity and creativity with the latter arguably being the only way any of us can stand out in a competitive global market for talent: <em>“Headlee started digging into the research and found evidence that the brain works best when it can alternate between focused labor (not multitasking!) and rest. Because even when it\'s \"resting,\" your brain is busy doing critical tasks. In fact, the brain is nearly as active during periods of rest as it is during periods of focus, Headlee says.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s sifting through memories,\" she explains. \"It\'s making new connections. It\'s doing surprising things because it\'s not focused on a task. So that\'s where a lot of creativity comes from and innovation ... making unexpected connections.\"”</em>\r\nSo how do we break this rut of overwork, exhaustion and unhappiness? Ms Headlee comes to our rescue with practical tips: <em>“Headlee found that simply tracking her time helped make her more mindful of the way she was spending it. When she started keeping a diary of her days, she admits, she was surprised to see how much online shopping she was doing.</em>\r\n<em>\"Once you subtract sleep, and work, and eating, and commuting, and all those other things, you have probably somewhere between five or six hours a day at your disposal to do with as you please,\" Headlee says. \"If you\'re using up half of that idly paging through Facebook and \'liking\' things, it might come as a surprise to you that you have more time than you think.\"</em>\r\n<em>To try to reclaim that time, Headlee has tried to limit the hours she spends engaging with email and social media.</em>\r\n<em>\"I took almost every app off my phone,\" she says, and she only checks email once per hour.</em>\r\n<em>She also does an \"untouchable day\" each week — a day she spends entirely off social media and email.”</em>', 'Too Busy? Make Time To \'Do Nothing\'', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'too-busy-make-time-to-do-nothing', '', '', '2020-03-23 12:07:52', '2020-03-23 12:07:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3065', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3066, 1, '2020-03-23 12:06:51', '2020-03-23 12:06:51', 'Many of us think that when in our leisure time we read stuff on the internet or on social media, we are not “working”. Such distinctions between work and leisure are actually meaningless says this piece from David Greene which is based on a new book called <em>“Do Nothing: How to Break Away from Overworking, Overdoing and Underliving”</em>. The author of the book, Celeste Headlee, has a very interesting point of view which she backs up with solid research.\r\n<em>“When you collapse on the couch after a long workday and start scrolling through social media, you\'re not doing your tired brain any favors, says author Celeste Headlee.</em>\r\n<em>\"Your brain sees your phone as work,\" she explains. \"To your brain, any time that phone is visible, part of your brain is expending part of its energy on preparing for a notification to come in. It\'s like a runner at the starting gate.\"</em>\r\n<em>Researchers have found that simply having your phone nearby can tax cognition. \"You\'re carrying your work literally everywhere,\" Headlee says. \"As far as your brain and body are concerned, you\'re never taking time off.\"”</em>\r\nOverworking your brain hits productivity and creativity with the latter arguably being the only way any of us can stand out in a competitive global market for talent: <em>“Headlee started digging into the research and found evidence that the brain works best when it can alternate between focused labor (not multitasking!) and rest. Because even when it\'s \"resting,\" your brain is busy doing critical tasks. In fact, the brain is nearly as active during periods of rest as it is during periods of focus, Headlee says.</em>\r\n<em>\"It\'s sifting through memories,\" she explains. \"It\'s making new connections. It\'s doing surprising things because it\'s not focused on a task. So that\'s where a lot of creativity comes from and innovation ... making unexpected connections.\"”</em>\r\nSo how do we break this rut of overwork, exhaustion and unhappiness? Ms Headlee comes to our rescue with practical tips: <em>“Headlee found that simply tracking her time helped make her more mindful of the way she was spending it. When she started keeping a diary of her days, she admits, she was surprised to see how much online shopping she was doing.</em>\r\n<em>\"Once you subtract sleep, and work, and eating, and commuting, and all those other things, you have probably somewhere between five or six hours a day at your disposal to do with as you please,\" Headlee says. \"If you\'re using up half of that idly paging through Facebook and \'liking\' things, it might come as a surprise to you that you have more time than you think.\"</em>\r\n<em>To try to reclaim that time, Headlee has tried to limit the hours she spends engaging with email and social media.</em>\r\n<em>\"I took almost every app off my phone,\" she says, and she only checks email once per hour.</em>\r\n<em>She also does an \"untouchable day\" each week — a day she spends entirely off social media and email.”</em>', 'Too Busy? Make Time To \'Do Nothing\'', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3065-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-23 12:06:51', '2020-03-23 12:06:51', '', 3065, 'https://marcellus.in/3065-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3067, 1, '2020-03-22 12:49:27', '2020-03-22 12:49:27', 'When we were college in the 1990s, “risk” was something that only Risk Management Professionals did. They even had (and still have) exams for such people. As we have grown older we have realised that all of us have to be risk managers at home, on the road and in the office. And the bad news is that the exam is never-ending and the exam doesn’t contain a syllabus. For example, Coronovirus is one massive risk examination for all of us and, even more so, for our leaders. In this article, Mr Gigerenzer says that what makes this exam really hard for our leaders is that can be lambasted both for overestimating the risk posed by the virus AND for underestimating it:\r\n<em>“The 2009 swine flu epidemic killed hundreds of thousands, mostly in Africa and Southeast Asia. But in Europe, where the threat was comparatively small, the media updated the death toll and the number of suspected cases on a daily basis. In the United Kingdom, the government predicted that as many as 65,000 citizens might die from the disease. In the end, fewer than 500 died.</em>\r\n<em>Predictably, such daily accounting triggered fear and led politicians to make hasty, ill-advised decisions – such as stockpiling medication – without examining the evidence. All eyes were focused on the new, unknown virus, and not on protecting people from more lethal threats, such as seasonal influenza, which in 2009 killed orders of magnitude more people than swine flu. It still does – as would be clear if the media bombarded us with hourly updates of the flu-related death toll.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, millions of people, particularly in developing countries, die from malaria and tuberculosis each year. And in the United States alone, hospital-acquired infections kill some 99,000 patients annually. Yet, these unlucky people get next to no attention.</em>\r\n<em>Why are we more scared of what is less likely to kill us? The psychological principle that makes us fear swine flu, avian flu, or COVID-19, but not the common flu is called fear of dread risks. It is easy to elicit fear of episodes in which many people die within a short interval, such as plane crashes or epidemics. But when just as many or more people die over a longer period – as with car accidents or the seasonal flu – it is difficult to scare the public into wearing seatbelts or getting vaccinated.”</em>\r\nMr Gigerenzer contends that the broader public – not just specialised risk professionals - needs to be trained to understand risk better so that they don’t get paranoid about plane crashes (or Coronavirus) whilst taking things talking on the mobile phone whilst driving (a routine sight on the streets of Mumbai) lightly: <em>“That is why risk literacy is so important. We need to be taught the mathematics of uncertainty, meaning statistical thinking. Just as being able to read enables people to understand texts, so statistical thinking enables us to understand and manage the risks we face.</em>\r\n<em>Part of risk literacy is learning why we fear what we fear. In fact, understanding uncertainty and understanding psychology go together. That can help the public ask the right questions – and politicians to make the right decisions.”</em>', 'Why What Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Panic', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-what-does-not-kill-us-makes-us-panic', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:36:00', '2020-03-24 05:36:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3067', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3068, 1, '2020-03-23 12:49:27', '2020-03-23 12:49:27', 'When we were college in the 1990s, “risk” was something that only Risk Management Professionals did. They even had (and still have) exams for such people. As we have grown older we have realised that all of us have to be risk managers at home, on the road and in the office. And the bad news is that the exam is never-ending and the exam doesn’t contain a syllabus. For example, Coronovirus is one massive risk examination for all of us and, even more so, for our leaders. In this article, Mr Gigerenzer says that what makes this exam really hard for our leaders is that can be lambasted both for overestimating the risk posed by the virus AND for underestimating it:\r\n<em>“The 2009 swine flu epidemic killed hundreds of thousands, mostly in Africa and Southeast Asia. But in Europe, where the threat was comparatively small, the media updated the death toll and the number of suspected cases on a daily basis. In the United Kingdom, the government predicted that as many as 65,000 citizens might die from the disease. In the end, fewer than 500 died.</em>\r\n<em>Predictably, such daily accounting triggered fear and led politicians to make hasty, ill-advised decisions – such as stockpiling medication – without examining the evidence. All eyes were focused on the new, unknown virus, and not on protecting people from more lethal threats, such as seasonal influenza, which in 2009 killed orders of magnitude more people than swine flu. It still does – as would be clear if the media bombarded us with hourly updates of the flu-related death toll.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, millions of people, particularly in developing countries, die from malaria and tuberculosis each year. And in the United States alone, hospital-acquired infections kill some 99,000 patients annually. Yet, these unlucky people get next to no attention.</em>\r\n<em>Why are we more scared of what is less likely to kill us? The psychological principle that makes us fear swine flu, avian flu, or COVID-19, but not the common flu is called fear of dread risks. It is easy to elicit fear of episodes in which many people die within a short interval, such as plane crashes or epidemics. But when just as many or more people die over a longer period – as with car accidents or the seasonal flu – it is difficult to scare the public into wearing seatbelts or getting vaccinated.”</em>\r\nMr Gigerenzer contends that the broader public – not just specialised risk professionals - needs to be trained to understand risk better so that they don’t get paranoid about plane crashes (or Coronavirus) whilst taking things talking on the mobile phone whilst driving (a routine sight on the streets of Mumbai) lightly: <em>“That is why risk literacy is so important. We need to be taught the mathematics of uncertainty, meaning statistical thinking. Just as being able to read enables people to understand texts, so statistical thinking enables us to understand and manage the risks we face.</em>\r\n<em>Part of risk literacy is learning why we fear what we fear. In fact, understanding uncertainty and understanding psychology go together. That can help the public ask the right questions – and politicians to make the right decisions.”</em>', 'Why What Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Panic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3067-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-23 12:49:27', '2020-03-23 12:49:27', '', 3067, 'https://marcellus.in/3067-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3070, 1, '2020-03-24 05:17:03', '2020-03-24 05:17:03', 'This is an interview in the Nautilus with Dennis Caroll, the man who has been at the forefront of researching potential infectious diseases for humanity orignating from the animal genepool. <em>“For decades, Carroll has been a leading voice about the threat of zoonotic spillover, the transmission of pathogens from nonhuman animals to us. Scientists are confident the current outbreak, which began in Wuhan, China, stemmed from a virus inherent in bats. In 2009, after years of studying infectious diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Carroll formed a USAID program called PREDICT, where he guided trailblazing research into viruses hiding, and waiting to emerge, in animals around the world.”</em>\r\nIn this outspoken interview, Carroll talks about why humanity’s encroachment of spaces hitherto dedicated to the wild have raised the probability of import of infectious diseases as well as echoing Yuval Noah Harari’s concerns on the lack of global coordination in tackling the current situation.\r\n<em>“The first thing to understand is that whatever future threats we’re going to face already exist; they are currently circulating in wildlife. Think of it as viral dark matter. A large pool of viruses are circulating and we don’t become familiar with them until we see a spillover event and people getting ill…. We’ve been able to identify bats as reservoirs for coronaviruses and documented specific bat populations as reservoirs for Ebola virus. We want to understand how each of these bats operate within an ecosystem. Do they have certain behaviors and practices that either keep them remote from or proximal to human populations? The bat population in which we isolated the Ebola virus in West Africa was a species of bat that also tends to co-roost within human housing, so it elevates the opportunity for spillover.</em>\r\n<em>… EcoHealth Alliance, an NGO, and others, looked at all reported outbreaks since 1940. They came to a fairly solid conclusion that we’re looking at an elevation of spillover events two to three times more than what we saw 40 years earlier. That continues to increase, driven by the huge increase in the human population and our expansion into wildlife areas. The single biggest predictor of spillover events is land-use change—more land going to agriculture and more specifically to livestock production.</em>\r\n<em>…This one [Covid-19] has a lower pathogenicity. The lower its virulence, the more likely it’ll become part of an endemic, part of a seasonal event. That’s one of the big things that’s going to be a worry. If it does go quiet over the summer months, then the question’s going to be, “Is it still infecting people?” We could be walking around in the middle of summer with influenza viruses, but they’re not active. They’ve just gone quiet. When the right ecology comes into play, it starts getting cold, and damp, then it starts replicating like crazy. If it’s able to park itself, and not kill its host over the summer months, then we’ve got a virus that has all the telltale signatures of establishing itself as part of our normative landscape, much to our detriment.</em>\r\n<em>…In 2005, during the avian influenza, George W. Bush was on the phone routinely with leaders around the world about how to coordinate a global response. Barack Obama did the same in 2009 for the second H1N1 pandemic and in 2014 for the Ebola epidemic. You saw presidential leadership step up and act as a catalyst for forging a global way forward for a global problem. It has been absolute silence in this White House. I think the only reason the White House is even paying any lip service to this is because the stock market has gone into a free fall. So they’re trying to figure out what are the words they need to say to placate the stock market.</em>\r\n<em>Because the Trump administration is only interested in America first. Populism here and across Europe and elsewhere has fragmented the global networks, which had been so instrumental in being able to bring together a global approach to problems like this. I’ve not seen any reports coming out of the White House that showed that as China was struggling to bring the virus under control, our president reached out to President Xi to talk about how to coordinate action. I’m stunned by the absolute absence of global dialogue for what is a global event. In Europe right now, you would never believe that there was a European Union. From where I sit, it looks like every country is making this up as they go along. Italy isn’t coordinating with Brussels. Brussels isn’t coordinating with Germany. There’s no coherent regional approach to this problem in Europe, even though they have a platform for doing it.”</em>', 'The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3069-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:17:03', '2020-03-24 05:17:03', '', 3069, 'https://marcellus.in/3069-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3071, 1, '2020-03-24 05:36:00', '2020-03-24 05:36:00', 'When we were college in the 1990s, “risk” was something that only Risk Management Professionals did. They even had (and still have) exams for such people. As we have grown older we have realised that all of us have to be risk managers at home, on the road and in the office. And the bad news is that the exam is never-ending and the exam doesn’t contain a syllabus. For example, Coronovirus is one massive risk examination for all of us and, even more so, for our leaders. In this article, Mr Gigerenzer says that what makes this exam really hard for our leaders is that can be lambasted both for overestimating the risk posed by the virus AND for underestimating it:\r\n<em>“The 2009 swine flu epidemic killed hundreds of thousands, mostly in Africa and Southeast Asia. But in Europe, where the threat was comparatively small, the media updated the death toll and the number of suspected cases on a daily basis. In the United Kingdom, the government predicted that as many as 65,000 citizens might die from the disease. In the end, fewer than 500 died.</em>\r\n<em>Predictably, such daily accounting triggered fear and led politicians to make hasty, ill-advised decisions – such as stockpiling medication – without examining the evidence. All eyes were focused on the new, unknown virus, and not on protecting people from more lethal threats, such as seasonal influenza, which in 2009 killed orders of magnitude more people than swine flu. It still does – as would be clear if the media bombarded us with hourly updates of the flu-related death toll.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, millions of people, particularly in developing countries, die from malaria and tuberculosis each year. And in the United States alone, hospital-acquired infections kill some 99,000 patients annually. Yet, these unlucky people get next to no attention.</em>\r\n<em>Why are we more scared of what is less likely to kill us? The psychological principle that makes us fear swine flu, avian flu, or COVID-19, but not the common flu is called fear of dread risks. It is easy to elicit fear of episodes in which many people die within a short interval, such as plane crashes or epidemics. But when just as many or more people die over a longer period – as with car accidents or the seasonal flu – it is difficult to scare the public into wearing seatbelts or getting vaccinated.”</em>\r\nMr Gigerenzer contends that the broader public – not just specialised risk professionals - needs to be trained to understand risk better so that they don’t get paranoid about plane crashes (or Coronavirus) whilst taking things talking on the mobile phone whilst driving (a routine sight on the streets of Mumbai) lightly: <em>“That is why risk literacy is so important. We need to be taught the mathematics of uncertainty, meaning statistical thinking. Just as being able to read enables people to understand texts, so statistical thinking enables us to understand and manage the risks we face.</em>\r\n<em>Part of risk literacy is learning why we fear what we fear. In fact, understanding uncertainty and understanding psychology go together. That can help the public ask the right questions – and politicians to make the right decisions.”</em>', 'Why What Does Not Kill Us Makes Us Panic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3067-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:36:00', '2020-03-24 05:36:00', '', 3067, 'https://marcellus.in/3067-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3072, 1, '2020-03-24 05:36:46', '2020-03-24 05:36:46', 'This is an interview in the Nautilus with Dennis Caroll, the man who has been at the forefront of researching potential infectious diseases for humanity orignating from the animal genepool. <em>“For decades, Carroll has been a leading voice about the threat of zoonotic spillover, the transmission of pathogens from nonhuman animals to us. Scientists are confident the current outbreak, which began in Wuhan, China, stemmed from a virus inherent in bats. In 2009, after years of studying infectious diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Carroll formed a USAID program called PREDICT, where he guided trailblazing research into viruses hiding, and waiting to emerge, in animals around the world.”</em>\r\nIn this outspoken interview, Carroll talks about why humanity’s encroachment of spaces hitherto dedicated to the wild have raised the probability of import of infectious diseases as well as echoing Yuval Noah Harari’s concerns on the lack of global coordination in tackling the current situation.\r\n<em>“The first thing to understand is that whatever future threats we’re going to face already exist; they are currently circulating in wildlife. Think of it as viral dark matter. A large pool of viruses are circulating and we don’t become familiar with them until we see a spillover event and people getting ill…. We’ve been able to identify bats as reservoirs for coronaviruses and documented specific bat populations as reservoirs for Ebola virus. We want to understand how each of these bats operate within an ecosystem. Do they have certain behaviors and practices that either keep them remote from or proximal to human populations? The bat population in which we isolated the Ebola virus in West Africa was a species of bat that also tends to co-roost within human housing, so it elevates the opportunity for spillover.</em>\r\n<em>… EcoHealth Alliance, an NGO, and others, looked at all reported outbreaks since 1940. They came to a fairly solid conclusion that we’re looking at an elevation of spillover events two to three times more than what we saw 40 years earlier. That continues to increase, driven by the huge increase in the human population and our expansion into wildlife areas. The single biggest predictor of spillover events is land-use change—more land going to agriculture and more specifically to livestock production.</em>\r\n<em>…This one [Covid-19] has a lower pathogenicity. The lower its virulence, the more likely it’ll become part of an endemic, part of a seasonal event. That’s one of the big things that’s going to be a worry. If it does go quiet over the summer months, then the question’s going to be, “Is it still infecting people?” We could be walking around in the middle of summer with influenza viruses, but they’re not active. They’ve just gone quiet. When the right ecology comes into play, it starts getting cold, and damp, then it starts replicating like crazy. If it’s able to park itself, and not kill its host over the summer months, then we’ve got a virus that has all the telltale signatures of establishing itself as part of our normative landscape, much to our detriment.</em>\r\n<em>…In 2005, during the avian influenza, George W. Bush was on the phone routinely with leaders around the world about how to coordinate a global response. Barack Obama did the same in 2009 for the second H1N1 pandemic and in 2014 for the Ebola epidemic. You saw presidential leadership step up and act as a catalyst for forging a global way forward for a global problem. It has been absolute silence in this White House. I think the only reason the White House is even paying any lip service to this is because the stock market has gone into a free fall. So they’re trying to figure out what are the words they need to say to placate the stock market.</em>\r\n<em>Because the Trump administration is only interested in America first. Populism here and across Europe and elsewhere has fragmented the global networks, which had been so instrumental in being able to bring together a global approach to problems like this. I’ve not seen any reports coming out of the White House that showed that as China was struggling to bring the virus under control, our president reached out to President Xi to talk about how to coordinate action. I’m stunned by the absolute absence of global dialogue for what is a global event. In Europe right now, you would never believe that there was a European Union. From where I sit, it looks like every country is making this up as they go along. Italy isn’t coordinating with Brussels. Brussels isn’t coordinating with Germany. There’s no coherent regional approach to this problem in Europe, even though they have a platform for doing it.”</em>', 'The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3069-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:36:46', '2020-03-24 05:36:46', '', 3069, 'https://marcellus.in/3069-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3073, 1, '2020-03-22 05:42:04', '2020-03-22 05:42:04', 'Earlier this week, Yuval Noah Harari, known for his fascinating book on history ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d0a3fdb79&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3d0a3fdb79%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585108914851000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEnzJQMrKjT6EY5FQDIjhEoPTqi8Q\">Sapiens</a>’, created a furore with his tweet accusing the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coronavirus related emergency decrees as dictatorial. In this oped in the FT, he elaborates on why this could be the biggest threat emerging out of this crisis – that governments globally could become more authoritarian as totalitarian surveillance justified by the current situation becomes the norm even in the post coronavirus world. He also raises concerns about the emerging nationalistic isolation which could hamper much required coordination amongst scientists and administrators to share insights about dealing with what might be the gravest threats humanity has ever faced.\r\n<em>“In this time of crisis, we face two particularly important choices. The first is between totalitarian surveillance and citizen empowerment. The second is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity.</em>\r\n<em>..In their battle against the coronavirus epidemic several governments have already deployed the new surveillance tools. The most notable case is China. By closely monitoring people’s smartphones, making use of hundreds of millions of face recognising cameras, and obliging people to check and report their body temperature and medical condition, the Chinese authorities can not only quickly identify suspected coronavirus carriers, but also track their movements and identify anyone they came into contact with. A range of mobile apps warn citizens about their proximity to infected patients.</em>\r\n<em>This kind of technology is not limited to east Asia. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel recently authorised the Israel Security Agency to deploy surveillance technology normally reserved for battling terrorists to track coronavirus patients. When the relevant parliamentary subcommittee refused to authorise the measure, Netanyahu rammed it through with an “emergency decree”.</em>\r\n<em>…You could, of course, make the case for biometric surveillance as a temporary measure taken during a state of emergency. It would go away once the emergency is over. But temporary measures have a nasty habit of outlasting emergencies, especially as there is always a new emergency lurking on the horizon. My home country of Israel, for example, declared a state of emergency during its 1948 War of Independence, which justified a range of temporary measures from press censorship and land confiscation to special regulations for making pudding (I kid you not). The War of Independence has long been won, but Israel never declared the emergency over, and has failed to abolish many of the “temporary” measures of 1948 (the emergency pudding decree was mercifully abolished in 2011).</em>\r\n<em>… In previous global crises — such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2014 Ebola epidemic — the US assumed the role of global leader. But the current US administration has abdicated the job of leader. It has made it very clear that it cares about the greatness of America far more than about the future of humanity. This administration has abandoned even its closest allies. When it banned all travel from the EU, it didn’t bother to give the EU so much as an advance notice — let alone consult with the EU about that drastic measure. It has scandalised Germany by allegedly offering $1bn to a German pharmaceutical company to buy monopoly rights to a new Covid-19 vaccine. Even if the current administration eventually changes tack and comes up with a global plan of action, few would follow a leader who never takes responsibility, who never admits mistakes, and who routinely takes all the credit for himself while leaving all the blame to others.”</em>', 'Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'yuval-noah-harari-the-world-after-coronavirus', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:42:27', '2020-03-24 05:42:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3073', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3074, 1, '2020-03-24 05:42:04', '2020-03-24 05:42:04', 'Earlier this week, Yuval Noah Harari, known for his fascinating book on history ‘<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d0a3fdb79&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3d0a3fdb79%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585108914851000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEnzJQMrKjT6EY5FQDIjhEoPTqi8Q\">Sapiens</a>’, created a furore with his tweet accusing the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coronavirus related emergency decrees as dictatorial. In this oped in the FT, he elaborates on why this could be the biggest threat emerging out of this crisis – that governments globally could become more authoritarian as totalitarian surveillance justified by the current situation becomes the norm even in the post coronavirus world. He also raises concerns about the emerging nationalistic isolation which could hamper much required coordination amongst scientists and administrators to share insights about dealing with what might be the gravest threats humanity has ever faced.\r\n<em>“In this time of crisis, we face two particularly important choices. The first is between totalitarian surveillance and citizen empowerment. The second is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity.</em>\r\n<em>..In their battle against the coronavirus epidemic several governments have already deployed the new surveillance tools. The most notable case is China. By closely monitoring people’s smartphones, making use of hundreds of millions of face recognising cameras, and obliging people to check and report their body temperature and medical condition, the Chinese authorities can not only quickly identify suspected coronavirus carriers, but also track their movements and identify anyone they came into contact with. A range of mobile apps warn citizens about their proximity to infected patients.</em>\r\n<em>This kind of technology is not limited to east Asia. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel recently authorised the Israel Security Agency to deploy surveillance technology normally reserved for battling terrorists to track coronavirus patients. When the relevant parliamentary subcommittee refused to authorise the measure, Netanyahu rammed it through with an “emergency decree”.</em>\r\n<em>…You could, of course, make the case for biometric surveillance as a temporary measure taken during a state of emergency. It would go away once the emergency is over. But temporary measures have a nasty habit of outlasting emergencies, especially as there is always a new emergency lurking on the horizon. My home country of Israel, for example, declared a state of emergency during its 1948 War of Independence, which justified a range of temporary measures from press censorship and land confiscation to special regulations for making pudding (I kid you not). The War of Independence has long been won, but Israel never declared the emergency over, and has failed to abolish many of the “temporary” measures of 1948 (the emergency pudding decree was mercifully abolished in 2011).</em>\r\n<em>… In previous global crises — such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2014 Ebola epidemic — the US assumed the role of global leader. But the current US administration has abdicated the job of leader. It has made it very clear that it cares about the greatness of America far more than about the future of humanity. This administration has abandoned even its closest allies. When it banned all travel from the EU, it didn’t bother to give the EU so much as an advance notice — let alone consult with the EU about that drastic measure. It has scandalised Germany by allegedly offering $1bn to a German pharmaceutical company to buy monopoly rights to a new Covid-19 vaccine. Even if the current administration eventually changes tack and comes up with a global plan of action, few would follow a leader who never takes responsibility, who never admits mistakes, and who routinely takes all the credit for himself while leaving all the blame to others.”</em>', 'Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3073-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:42:04', '2020-03-24 05:42:04', '', 3073, 'https://marcellus.in/3073-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3075, 1, '2020-03-22 05:47:39', '2020-03-22 05:47:39', '<div>Whilst the world has now accepted the importance of social distancing as the main tool to contain the spread of the virus and thereby ‘flatten the curve’, governments are also scrambling to come up with measures to handle the economic consequences, which can be quite dire by themselves. Several hundreds of thousands of businesses will likely go under due to this virtual halt to human activity and as a consequence several million people are likely to lose jobs and means of livelihood. In this article, the authors discuss possible tools governments across the world can use to help such businesses and people.\r\n<em> “The key thing to grasp is that this will be no normal recession. Economics textbooks don’t cover how to deal with the fallout from a global pandemic.</em>\r\n<em>In a normal recession, the Keynesian response calls for getting cash in the hands of consumers so that they increase their spending, pumping the economy back up again. This relies on what economists call the “marginal propensity to consume”: the degree to which consumers take that cash and spend it, rather than save it.</em>\r\n<em>A pandemic, however, depresses the marginal propensity to consume. And for good reason. As a matter of public health, many should not go to work or school, or out to eat, drink, shop, see a movie, etc. The immediate halt to activity is an essential public health measure.</em>\r\n<em>So in the current moment, a Keynesian stimulus will most likely result in many consumers taking the cash they receive and putting it in the bank. In the face of the pandemic, our standard monetary and fiscal tools are impotent against an unavoidable decline in activity.</em>\r\n<em>..Because the pandemic depresses the spending response to fiscal stimulus, fiscal efforts should be configured not with a view to boosting economic activity but to plug the hole in the budgets of the most vulnerable households and businesses over the months ahead.</em>\r\n<em>A well-designed package should contain two elements:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Support for vulnerable households—along the lines of Strain’s proposal above—will help these households navigate the period of depressed economic activity that we are about to enter.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Support for directly affected vulnerable businesses will help these businesses bridge the inevitable gap in revenues caused by the necessary economic slowdown.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'A Recession is a Public Health Necessity. Here\'s How to Make it Short and Sharp', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'a-recession-is-a-public-health-necessity-heres-how-to-make-it-short-and-sharp', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:48:04', '2020-03-24 05:48:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3075', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3076, 1, '2020-03-24 05:47:39', '2020-03-24 05:47:39', '<div>Whilst the world has now accepted the importance of social distancing as the main tool to contain the spread of the virus and thereby ‘flatten the curve’, governments are also scrambling to come up with measures to handle the economic consequences, which can be quite dire by themselves. Several hundreds of thousands of businesses will likely go under due to this virtual halt to human activity and as a consequence several million people are likely to lose jobs and means of livelihood. In this article, the authors discuss possible tools governments across the world can use to help such businesses and people.\r\n<em> “The key thing to grasp is that this will be no normal recession. Economics textbooks don’t cover how to deal with the fallout from a global pandemic.</em>\r\n<em>In a normal recession, the Keynesian response calls for getting cash in the hands of consumers so that they increase their spending, pumping the economy back up again. This relies on what economists call the “marginal propensity to consume”: the degree to which consumers take that cash and spend it, rather than save it.</em>\r\n<em>A pandemic, however, depresses the marginal propensity to consume. And for good reason. As a matter of public health, many should not go to work or school, or out to eat, drink, shop, see a movie, etc. The immediate halt to activity is an essential public health measure.</em>\r\n<em>So in the current moment, a Keynesian stimulus will most likely result in many consumers taking the cash they receive and putting it in the bank. In the face of the pandemic, our standard monetary and fiscal tools are impotent against an unavoidable decline in activity.</em>\r\n<em>..Because the pandemic depresses the spending response to fiscal stimulus, fiscal efforts should be configured not with a view to boosting economic activity but to plug the hole in the budgets of the most vulnerable households and businesses over the months ahead.</em>\r\n<em>A well-designed package should contain two elements:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Support for vulnerable households—along the lines of Strain’s proposal above—will help these households navigate the period of depressed economic activity that we are about to enter.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Support for directly affected vulnerable businesses will help these businesses bridge the inevitable gap in revenues caused by the necessary economic slowdown.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'A Recession is a Public Health Necessity. Here\'s How to Make it Short and Sharp', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3075-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:47:39', '2020-03-24 05:47:39', '', 3075, 'https://marcellus.in/3075-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3077, 1, '2020-03-22 05:52:08', '2020-03-22 05:52:08', 'Away from the doom and gloom of Covid-19, some good news from the world of material sciences – a technology to reduce or even eliminate food wastage. Reducing wastage of food not only helps more efficient utilisation of scarce resources across the global population but also helps in addressing climate change.\r\n<em>“We waste an extraordinary amount of food. In America it’s about 40%; in the UK, nearly the same. Around the world, almost a third of all the food produced – approximately 1.3bn tonnes – is lost one way or another each year. Much of the time it’s not merely lost, but brought into our homes only to be chucked in the bin, and then transported to a landfill, where it slowly releases methane back into the atmosphere, actively warming the Earth. Worldwide, a staggering 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions are linked to food waste.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a company called Apeel Sciences, founded by James Rogers, a Phd in material sciences who got intrigued by the problem of food wastage and took a shot at using his education to solve one of the biggest problems the world is facing.\r\n<em>“All fresh produce is seasonal as well as perishable.” That insight – so simple, so true – struck him like a lightning bolt. “The problem,” he recalls, “is you’re either in season and have more than you know what to do with, or you have nothing.” Plenty of animals have adapted to these natural cycles of boom and bust, fat times and lean: birds migrate, bears hibernate. Humans trade, converting this surplus into a non-perishable asset we call money. Some of the earliest forms of currency were, in fact, grains stored in clay pots. And clay pottery, Rogers is quick to point out, was one of material science’s very first breakthroughs. Clay pottery allowed us to continue eating long after the harvest. But clay pottery only got us so far. It was what material science might offer food today that interested him.</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>This substance, however, was made entirely out of plant lipids, or fatty acids. Spray it on to an avocado, say, and the substance dries into a sort of second skin, which increases the avocado’s shelf life by two to three times.</em>\r\n<em>..Costanza describes how one of the suppliers they work with no longer uses plastic wrap on cucumbers now that Apeel’s spray is in the mix. It’s a seemingly small change that quickly adds up. In a single year, that one move will save enough plastic wrap to enfold the Empire State Building 11 times over. “Imagine adding that to each food category throughout the globe,” Costanza says. “That’s a huge paradigm shift away from single-use plastics. It’s pretty crazy.” Costanza drops his voice, getting serious. “This is the type of technology you look back on as revolutionary. I hold it up there with electricity or the internet. There are so many lives we can affect in a positive way. And we have such tight intellectual property no one’s really able to replicate it – we don’t really have competition.”</em>', 'Stopping the rot: the fight to save fresh food', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'stopping-the-rot-the-fight-to-save-fresh-food', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:35:14', '2020-03-30 06:35:14', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3077', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3093, 1, '2020-03-30 06:35:14', '2020-03-30 06:35:14', 'Away from the doom and gloom of Covid-19, some good news from the world of material sciences – a technology to reduce or even eliminate food wastage. Reducing wastage of food not only helps more efficient utilisation of scarce resources across the global population but also helps in addressing climate change.\r\n<em>“We waste an extraordinary amount of food. In America it’s about 40%; in the UK, nearly the same. Around the world, almost a third of all the food produced – approximately 1.3bn tonnes – is lost one way or another each year. Much of the time it’s not merely lost, but brought into our homes only to be chucked in the bin, and then transported to a landfill, where it slowly releases methane back into the atmosphere, actively warming the Earth. Worldwide, a staggering 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions are linked to food waste.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a company called Apeel Sciences, founded by James Rogers, a Phd in material sciences who got intrigued by the problem of food wastage and took a shot at using his education to solve one of the biggest problems the world is facing.\r\n<em>“All fresh produce is seasonal as well as perishable.” That insight – so simple, so true – struck him like a lightning bolt. “The problem,” he recalls, “is you’re either in season and have more than you know what to do with, or you have nothing.” Plenty of animals have adapted to these natural cycles of boom and bust, fat times and lean: birds migrate, bears hibernate. Humans trade, converting this surplus into a non-perishable asset we call money. Some of the earliest forms of currency were, in fact, grains stored in clay pots. And clay pottery, Rogers is quick to point out, was one of material science’s very first breakthroughs. Clay pottery allowed us to continue eating long after the harvest. But clay pottery only got us so far. It was what material science might offer food today that interested him.</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>This substance, however, was made entirely out of plant lipids, or fatty acids. Spray it on to an avocado, say, and the substance dries into a sort of second skin, which increases the avocado’s shelf life by two to three times.</em>\r\n<em>..Costanza describes how one of the suppliers they work with no longer uses plastic wrap on cucumbers now that Apeel’s spray is in the mix. It’s a seemingly small change that quickly adds up. In a single year, that one move will save enough plastic wrap to enfold the Empire State Building 11 times over. “Imagine adding that to each food category throughout the globe,” Costanza says. “That’s a huge paradigm shift away from single-use plastics. It’s pretty crazy.” Costanza drops his voice, getting serious. “This is the type of technology you look back on as revolutionary. I hold it up there with electricity or the internet. There are so many lives we can affect in a positive way. And we have such tight intellectual property no one’s really able to replicate it – we don’t really have competition.”</em>', 'Stopping the rot: the fight to save fresh food', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3077-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:35:14', '2020-03-30 06:35:14', '', 3077, 'https://marcellus.in/3077-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3078, 1, '2020-03-24 05:52:08', '2020-03-24 05:52:08', 'Away from the doom and gloom of Covid-19, some good news from the world of material sciences – a technology to reduce or even eliminate food wastage. Reducing wastage of food not only helps more efficient utilisation of scarce resources across the global population but also helps in addressing climate change.\r\n<em>“We waste an extraordinary amount of food. In America it’s about 40%; in the UK, nearly the same. Around the world, almost a third of all the food produced – approximately 1.3bn tonnes – is lost one way or another each year. Much of the time it’s not merely lost, but brought into our homes only to be chucked in the bin, and then transported to a landfill, where it slowly releases methane back into the atmosphere, actively warming the Earth. Worldwide, a staggering 10% of all greenhouse gas emissions are linked to food waste.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a company called Apeel Sciences, founded by James Rogers, a Phd in material sciences who got intrigued by the problem of food wastage and took a shot at using his education to solve one of the biggest problems the world is facing.\r\n<em>“All fresh produce is seasonal as well as perishable.” That insight – so simple, so true – struck him like a lightning bolt. “The problem,” he recalls, “is you’re either in season and have more than you know what to do with, or you have nothing.” Plenty of animals have adapted to these natural cycles of boom and bust, fat times and lean: birds migrate, bears hibernate. Humans trade, converting this surplus into a non-perishable asset we call money. Some of the earliest forms of currency were, in fact, grains stored in clay pots. And clay pottery, Rogers is quick to point out, was one of material science’s very first breakthroughs. Clay pottery allowed us to continue eating long after the harvest. But clay pottery only got us so far. It was what material science might offer food today that interested him.</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>This substance, however, was made entirely out of plant lipids, or fatty acids. Spray it on to an avocado, say, and the substance dries into a sort of second skin, which increases the avocado’s shelf life by two to three times.</em>\r\n<em>..Costanza describes how one of the suppliers they work with no longer uses plastic wrap on cucumbers now that Apeel’s spray is in the mix. It’s a seemingly small change that quickly adds up. In a single year, that one move will save enough plastic wrap to enfold the Empire State Building 11 times over. “Imagine adding that to each food category throughout the globe,” Costanza says. “That’s a huge paradigm shift away from single-use plastics. It’s pretty crazy.” Costanza drops his voice, getting serious. “This is the type of technology you look back on as revolutionary. I hold it up there with electricity or the internet. There are so many lives we can affect in a positive way. And we have such tight intellectual property no one’s really able to replicate it – we don’t really have competition.”</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Stopping the rot: the fight to save fresh food', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3077-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-24 05:52:08', '2020-03-24 05:52:08', '', 3077, 'https://marcellus.in/3077-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3080, 1, '2020-03-22 09:21:36', '2020-03-22 09:21:36', '', 'Impact of ongoing events', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'impact-of-ongoing-events', '', '', '2020-07-08 06:16:30', '2020-07-08 06:16:30', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3080', 0, 'video', '', 0),
(3082, 1, '2020-03-30 05:55:52', '2020-03-30 05:55:52', 'A popular view doing the rounds these days is that the battle against Coronavirus is nothing short of a full scale war against the pathogen. Hence, we are told that we should gird our loins and get ready for a long haul. Morgan Housel in the piece highlighted here explains why the battle against Covid will be akin to World War II. If you buy into this analogy you should note that in the four years in which America fought the War, its stockmarket rallied by 130% - see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c1ee0d9856&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc1ee0d9856%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399746000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJP0bXuqoeN6X4iJHSzFdRyhR8Hg\">https://www.investors.com/how-<wbr />to-invest/investors-corner/<wbr />stock-market-world-war-ii-<wbr />follow-through-day-depression/</a>\r\nWhen Housel says that what we are facing is like a War, he seems to be taking a fairly positive view of what War means: <em>“We can’t look at history to tell us what might happen next. We can, though, use history as a guide to predict the kind of behaviors people are susceptible to when faced with a similar event.</em>\r\n<em>And that’s where there is a historical map.</em>\r\n<em>It’s World War II.</em>\r\n<em>Not the battle or the geopolitics. But World War II united most of the world against a common enemy in a way that’s incredibly rare. Cooperation within, and between, countries surged.</em>\r\n<em>The fight against COVID-19 is nearly identical in that respect. This may be the first time since the 1940s that so much of the world is united so firmly against such a specific foe.</em>\r\n<em>What unity did to people’s behaviors – their abilities, their outlooks, their incentives – surprised many during World War II. If history is any guide, we’re about to be surprised again.”</em>\r\nSo what are the economic consequences of going to War? As per Housel’s WWII analogy they are: <em>“Private factories would have to halt production of everyday goods – cars, clothes, appliances – and retool to build planes, tanks, and guns. This was done by federal order. Fewer than 200 civilian vehicles were built in the United States from 1942 to 1945. Every assembly line was devoted to war.</em>\r\n<em>Second, wages had to be stabilized. No big raises, no big cuts. FDR told the nation in 1942: “Do you work for wages? You will have to forego higher wages for your particular job for the duration of the war.”</em>\r\n<em>Third, everyday goods had to be rationed. Gasoline, sugar, rubber, steel – limits were placed on how much and when you could buy.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth, taxes would be raised. Income would be effectively capped.”</em>\r\nAnd through all this economic suffering, Housel believes that WWII was a positive social event – a social unifier – which compelled people to come together. His hope is that Covid could do something similar although with the social distancing required to deal with Covid, presumably the only place we will come together is in social media: <em>“Political rivalries melted virtually overnight. Republican House Minority Leader Joseph Martin said: “There is no politics here. There is only one party when it comes to the integrity and honor of this country.”</em>\r\n<em>Across America men and women were either sent to war or to a factory or office to support it. People didn’t just have jobs; they had a role in keeping the free world alive…England is a fascinating example because of the relentless night bombings that took place during the Blitz. Sebastian Junger writes in his book Tribe:</em>\r\n<em>“Before the war, projections for psychiatric breakdown in England ran as high as four million people, but as the Blitz progressed, psychiatric hospitals around the country saw admissions go down. Emergency services in London reported an average of only two cases of “bomb neuroses” a week. Psychiatrists watched in puzzlement as long-standing patients saw their symptoms subside during the period of intense air raids.”….</em>\r\n<em>Back in America the solidarity bound people in ways that seemed unfathomable years before. Women entered the workforce in record numbers. Racial equality – though far from perfect – surged. “Probably the most important thing that has happened in the United States in the field of race relations,” Eleanor Roosevelt wrote, “is that so many things are now taken for granted where the integration of the two races is concerned.””</em>', 'Common Enemies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3081-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 05:55:52', '2020-03-30 05:55:52', '', 3081, 'https://marcellus.in/3081-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3083, 1, '2020-03-29 06:11:41', '2020-03-29 06:11:41', 'As the world grapples with the here and now of the challenges posed to human life and the economy alike, here is a rather well thought through attempt by Ed Yong in The Atlantic at looking into the future broken into three phases: 1) The Next months; 2) The Endgame and 3) The Aftermath.\r\nEd reckons the emphasis over the next months will be the accelerated production and supply of medical equipment, increased availability of testing kits (great <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40c1069cd5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D40c1069cd5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399746000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpCZBhSVmRqYKqTB-kpBIJ8aOP_Q\">news</a> on this on Friday), social distancing and coherence on behalf of the administration.\r\n<em>“If Trump stays the course, if Americans adhere to social distancing, if testing can be rolled out, and if enough masks can be produced, there is a chance that the country can still avert the worst predictions about COVID-19, and at least temporarily bring the pandemic under control. No one knows how long that will take, but it won’t be quick. “It could be anywhere from four to six weeks to up to three months,” Fauci said, “but I don’t have great confidence in that range.”</em>\r\nEd’s scenario analysis for the end game is quite interesting – a fairy tale scenario where impeccable coordination amongst nations to kill the pandemic soon, a dangerous ‘herd immunity’ scenario leaving several millions dead and a more likely protracted ‘whack-a-mole’ scenario, “stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced”. Ed reckons the last one is the best option, but also the longest and most complicated, given even the fastest strategies to produce a vaccine will take at least 12 to 18 months. But what is clear seems to be that the virus will remain part of human life, much like the common flu. What is also likely is that there could be many bouts of the pandemic resulting in humanity to called upon for multiple bouts of social distancing, depending on the unknowns about the seasonality of the virus and the duration of immunity humans are likely to develop against it.\r\n<em>“Whether through accumulating herd immunity or the long-awaited arrival of a vaccine, the virus will find spreading explosively more and more difficult. It’s unlikely to disappear entirely. The vaccine may need to be updated as the virus changes, and people may need to get revaccinated on a regular basis, as they currently do for the flu. Models suggest that the virus might simmer around the world, triggering epidemics every few years or so. “But my hope and expectation is that the severity would decline, and there would be less societal upheaval,” Kissler says. In this future, COVID-19 may become like the flu is today—a recurring scourge of winter. Perhaps it will eventually become so mundane that even though a vaccine exists, large swaths of Gen C won’t bother getting it, forgetting how dramatically their world was molded by its absence.”</em>\r\nThe Aftermath however is a mixed bag. Ed prophesies that there will be a significant increase in psychological disorders on the one hand, whilst humanity will also discover a lot of positives to improve daily life including how we treat the environment.\r\n<em>“One could also envisage a future in which America learns a different lesson. A communal spirit, ironically born through social distancing, causes people to turn outward, to neighbors both foreign and domestic. The election of November 2020 becomes a repudiation of “America first” politics. The nation pivots, as it did after World War II, from isolationism to international cooperation. Buoyed by steady investments and an influx of the brightest minds, the health-care workforce surges. Gen C kids write school essays about growing up to be epidemiologists. Public health becomes the centerpiece of foreign policy. The U.S. leads a new global partnership focused on solving challenges like pandemics and climate change. In 2030, SARS-CoV-3 emerges from nowhere, and is brought to heel within a month.”</em>', 'How the Pandemic Will End', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-pandemic-will-end', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:11:55', '2020-03-30 06:11:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3083', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3084, 1, '2020-03-30 06:11:41', '2020-03-30 06:11:41', 'As the world grapples with the here and now of the challenges posed to human life and the economy alike, here is a rather well thought through attempt by Ed Yong in The Atlantic at looking into the future broken into three phases: 1) The Next months; 2) The Endgame and 3) The Aftermath.\r\nEd reckons the emphasis over the next months will be the accelerated production and supply of medical equipment, increased availability of testing kits (great <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=40c1069cd5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D40c1069cd5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399746000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpCZBhSVmRqYKqTB-kpBIJ8aOP_Q\">news</a> on this on Friday), social distancing and coherence on behalf of the administration.\r\n<em>“If Trump stays the course, if Americans adhere to social distancing, if testing can be rolled out, and if enough masks can be produced, there is a chance that the country can still avert the worst predictions about COVID-19, and at least temporarily bring the pandemic under control. No one knows how long that will take, but it won’t be quick. “It could be anywhere from four to six weeks to up to three months,” Fauci said, “but I don’t have great confidence in that range.”</em>\r\nEd’s scenario analysis for the end game is quite interesting – a fairy tale scenario where impeccable coordination amongst nations to kill the pandemic soon, a dangerous ‘herd immunity’ scenario leaving several millions dead and a more likely protracted ‘whack-a-mole’ scenario, “stamping out outbreaks here and there until a vaccine can be produced”. Ed reckons the last one is the best option, but also the longest and most complicated, given even the fastest strategies to produce a vaccine will take at least 12 to 18 months. But what is clear seems to be that the virus will remain part of human life, much like the common flu. What is also likely is that there could be many bouts of the pandemic resulting in humanity to called upon for multiple bouts of social distancing, depending on the unknowns about the seasonality of the virus and the duration of immunity humans are likely to develop against it.\r\n<em>“Whether through accumulating herd immunity or the long-awaited arrival of a vaccine, the virus will find spreading explosively more and more difficult. It’s unlikely to disappear entirely. The vaccine may need to be updated as the virus changes, and people may need to get revaccinated on a regular basis, as they currently do for the flu. Models suggest that the virus might simmer around the world, triggering epidemics every few years or so. “But my hope and expectation is that the severity would decline, and there would be less societal upheaval,” Kissler says. In this future, COVID-19 may become like the flu is today—a recurring scourge of winter. Perhaps it will eventually become so mundane that even though a vaccine exists, large swaths of Gen C won’t bother getting it, forgetting how dramatically their world was molded by its absence.”</em>\r\nThe Aftermath however is a mixed bag. Ed prophesies that there will be a significant increase in psychological disorders on the one hand, whilst humanity will also discover a lot of positives to improve daily life including how we treat the environment.\r\n<em>“One could also envisage a future in which America learns a different lesson. A communal spirit, ironically born through social distancing, causes people to turn outward, to neighbors both foreign and domestic. The election of November 2020 becomes a repudiation of “America first” politics. The nation pivots, as it did after World War II, from isolationism to international cooperation. Buoyed by steady investments and an influx of the brightest minds, the health-care workforce surges. Gen C kids write school essays about growing up to be epidemiologists. Public health becomes the centerpiece of foreign policy. The U.S. leads a new global partnership focused on solving challenges like pandemics and climate change. In 2030, SARS-CoV-3 emerges from nowhere, and is brought to heel within a month.”</em>', 'How the Pandemic Will End', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3083-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:11:41', '2020-03-30 06:11:41', '', 3083, 'https://marcellus.in/3083-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3085, 1, '2020-03-29 06:15:24', '2020-03-29 06:15:24', 'We often meet people in India who look at China in admiration and say wistfully that “if only we too had an authoritarian government which could prioritise economic development over everything else, we too would be like India.” This tendency to look at a successful company or country and come up with a one-dimensional view of what made that collective entity successful is very common in the stockmarket. The only problem with this view is that it is wrong. This well researched piece from the BBC provides a very unusual perspective on China’s rise on a technological superpower.\r\nThe piece focuses on a geeky Chinese woman who we in India had never heard of – Xia Peisu. Battling tremendous odds, this lady <em>“pushed computing from a geeky obsession into a transformative industry…She helped shape some of China’s first computing and computer science institutions and developed their training materials. She taught the first computer theory class in the country. Over her career, she would usher hundreds of students into the country’s burgeoning field of computer science.</em>\r\n<em>In the aftermath of war and political upheaval, Xia shaped a new field of science and a new industry in China. Through both her technological innovations and the many students she taught, Xia‘s influence resonates throughout China’s computing world today.”</em>\r\nXia’s origins show how important widespread availability of good education are for the rise of a country: <em>“Born into a family of educators in the south-eastern municipality of Chongqing on 28 July 1923, Xia rarely went without an education. First attending primary school aged four and receiving private home tutelage at eight, she went on to excel at Nanyu Secondary School and graduated top of her high school class at National No. Nine in 1940.</em>\r\n<em>China was in the throes of the Second Sino-Japanese War, an eight-year conflict that ravaged China and claimed the lives of millions of Chinese civilians. At the war’s onset in 1937, the Japanese captured Nanjing, the capital city of the Republic of China. Xia’s home of Chongqing became a haven for Nanjing refugees. It also became home to National Central University – an institution which, despite forced relocation from Nanjing, kept teaching students. In 1941, Xia joined as a student in electrical engineering.”</em>\r\nXia’s intellectual development as young scholar shows the importance of learning at world class institutions and then returning to help the mother country move forward: <em>“Xia left for Shanghai for graduate studies at the Telecommunications Institute of Jiaotong University and Yang left to study under Nobel laureate Max Born at the University of Edinburgh.</em>\r\n<em>Two years later, Xia reunited with Yang when she began to study for her doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Edinburgh. In her dissertation, “On Parametric Oscillations in Electric Circuits and A Graphical Analysis for Non-Linear Systems”, she developed methodologies that could more accurately predict variations in frequency and amplitude within electronic systems, which led to wide-reaching applications for any system with an electrical frequency, from radios to TV to computers.</em>\r\n<em>In 1950, she was awarded her PhD. Later that same year, she and Yang married in Edinburgh. Both scientifically-minded and deeply invested in putting those minds to work in their home country, the couple returned to China in 1951. They both took up positions at Tsinghua University (or Qinghua University), where Xia worked on telecommunications research.”</em>\r\nPost her return from Ediburgh, Xia then worked non-stop for 40 years to develop China’s computer industry. Thanks to the efforts of the teams she led China went from being a country which couldn’t produce a computer until the late 1950s to a country which became the world’s centre for computer production 60 years later:\r\n<em>“In 1956, she joined a delegation to Moscow and Leningrad to explore Soviet research, production and education in computing. When she returned that same year, she undertook translation of Soviet computer design from Russian into Chinese, including a 1,000-page manual that became the course text for teaching Chinese students Soviet computing.</em>\r\n<em>That same year, under the auspices of the CAS’s Institute of Mathematics and Institute of Physics, Xia taught the country’s first computer theory class….Xia was involved in developing the computer science courses at both institutions, and as a course developer and lecturer, she oversaw the training of hundreds of students between 1956 and 1962.</em>\r\n<em> “What [China] needed above all was a training program,” Mullaney notes. Xia gave them one.</em>\r\n<em>By 1959, China had succeeded in replicating two Soviet electronic computer designs; the 103 model and the 104 model, each based on the Soviet M-3 and BESM-II computers respectively….</em>\r\n<em>Far from stopping after the 1960 USSR withdrawal of support, China’s computing industry continued to advance.</em>\r\n<em>CAS researchers continued to pursue computing technology and computer science on their own. Xia’s 107 model was the first computer that China developed after Soviet withdrawal, and unlike the 103 and 104 models based on Soviet design, the 107 was the first indigenously designed and developed computer in China. The 107 was soon reproduced and installed in training institutions around China.</em>\r\n<em>Throughout the 1960s, China continued to develop more powerful and sophisticated computers at the CAS in isolation, progressing from tube circuits like that of the 107 to transistors and, in the 70s and early 80s, to integrated circuits. When a delegation of US computer scientists visited China in 1972, they didn’t expect to find China’s computer industry humming along. “All of the members of that delegation, in the few testimonials we have, all express surprise at how far [China had come],” Mullaney says…”</em>\r\nThis is how countries develop. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of effort from millions of committed, talented. Demagoguery is neither sufficient nor necessary for economic progress.', 'The Computer Pioneer Who Built Modern China', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-computer-pioneer-who-built-modern-china', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:19:33', '2020-03-30 06:19:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3085', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3086, 1, '2020-03-30 06:15:24', '2020-03-30 06:15:24', 'We often meet people in India who look at China in admiration and say wistfully that “if only we too had an authoritarian government which could prioritise economic development over everything else, we too would be like India.” This tendency to look at a successful company or country and come up with a one-dimensional view of what made that collective entity successful is very common in the stockmarket. The only problem with this view is that it is wrong. This well researched piece from the BBC provides a very unusual perspective on China’s rise on a technological superpower.\r\nThe piece focuses on a geeky Chinese woman who we in India had never heard of – Xia Peisu. Battling tremendous odds, this lady <em>“pushed computing from a geeky obsession into a transformative industry…She helped shape some of China’s first computing and computer science institutions and developed their training materials. She taught the first computer theory class in the country. Over her career, she would usher hundreds of students into the country’s burgeoning field of computer science.</em>\r\n<em>In the aftermath of war and political upheaval, Xia shaped a new field of science and a new industry in China. Through both her technological innovations and the many students she taught, Xia‘s influence resonates throughout China’s computing world today.”</em>\r\nXia’s origins show how important widespread availability of good education are for the rise of a country: <em>“Born into a family of educators in the south-eastern municipality of Chongqing on 28 July 1923, Xia rarely went without an education. First attending primary school aged four and receiving private home tutelage at eight, she went on to excel at Nanyu Secondary School and graduated top of her high school class at National No. Nine in 1940.</em>\r\n<em>China was in the throes of the Second Sino-Japanese War, an eight-year conflict that ravaged China and claimed the lives of millions of Chinese civilians. At the war’s onset in 1937, the Japanese captured Nanjing, the capital city of the Republic of China. Xia’s home of Chongqing became a haven for Nanjing refugees. It also became home to National Central University – an institution which, despite forced relocation from Nanjing, kept teaching students. In 1941, Xia joined as a student in electrical engineering.”</em>\r\nXia’s intellectual development as young scholar shows the importance of learning at world class institutions and then returning to help the mother country move forward: <em>“Xia left for Shanghai for graduate studies at the Telecommunications Institute of Jiaotong University and Yang left to study under Nobel laureate Max Born at the University of Edinburgh.</em>\r\n<em>Two years later, Xia reunited with Yang when she began to study for her doctorate in electrical engineering at the University of Edinburgh. In her dissertation, “On Parametric Oscillations in Electric Circuits and A Graphical Analysis for Non-Linear Systems”, she developed methodologies that could more accurately predict variations in frequency and amplitude within electronic systems, which led to wide-reaching applications for any system with an electrical frequency, from radios to TV to computers.</em>\r\n<em>In 1950, she was awarded her PhD. Later that same year, she and Yang married in Edinburgh. Both scientifically-minded and deeply invested in putting those minds to work in their home country, the couple returned to China in 1951. They both took up positions at Tsinghua University (or Qinghua University), where Xia worked on telecommunications research.”</em>\r\nPost her return from Ediburgh, Xia then worked non-stop for 40 years to develop China’s computer industry. Thanks to the efforts of the teams she led China went from being a country which couldn’t produce a computer until the late 1950s to a country which became the world’s centre for computer production 60 years later:\r\n<em>“In 1956, she joined a delegation to Moscow and Leningrad to explore Soviet research, production and education in computing. When she returned that same year, she undertook translation of Soviet computer design from Russian into Chinese, including a 1,000-page manual that became the course text for teaching Chinese students Soviet computing.</em>\r\n<em>That same year, under the auspices of the CAS’s Institute of Mathematics and Institute of Physics, Xia taught the country’s first computer theory class….Xia was involved in developing the computer science courses at both institutions, and as a course developer and lecturer, she oversaw the training of hundreds of students between 1956 and 1962.</em>\r\n<em> “What [China] needed above all was a training program,” Mullaney notes. Xia gave them one.</em>\r\n<em>By 1959, China had succeeded in replicating two Soviet electronic computer designs; the 103 model and the 104 model, each based on the Soviet M-3 and BESM-II computers respectively….</em>\r\n<em>Far from stopping after the 1960 USSR withdrawal of support, China’s computing industry continued to advance.</em>\r\n<em>CAS researchers continued to pursue computing technology and computer science on their own. Xia’s 107 model was the first computer that China developed after Soviet withdrawal, and unlike the 103 and 104 models based on Soviet design, the 107 was the first indigenously designed and developed computer in China. The 107 was soon reproduced and installed in training institutions around China.</em>\r\n<em>Throughout the 1960s, China continued to develop more powerful and sophisticated computers at the CAS in isolation, progressing from tube circuits like that of the 107 to transistors and, in the 70s and early 80s, to integrated circuits. When a delegation of US computer scientists visited China in 1972, they didn’t expect to find China’s computer industry humming along. “All of the members of that delegation, in the few testimonials we have, all express surprise at how far [China had come],” Mullaney says…”</em>\r\nThis is how countries develop. It takes a lot of time. It takes a lot of effort from millions of committed, talented. Demagoguery is neither sufficient nor necessary for economic progress.', 'The Computer Pioneer Who Built Modern China', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3085-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:15:24', '2020-03-30 06:15:24', '', 3085, 'https://marcellus.in/3085-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3087, 1, '2020-03-29 06:24:18', '2020-03-29 06:24:18', 'By now we have seen most countries come up with stimulus programs to help prevent a catastrophic economic collapse caused by forced lockdowns and social distancing. However, as early as last week, Denmark rapidly stitched up with a plan which still remains the most radical of stimulus programs. Stimulus might be a misnomer given the measures actually amount to <em>‘freezing the economy’. </em>Measures that will cost the Danish government as much as 13% of GDP, all spent in three months flat.\r\n<em>“Denmark’s government agreed to cover the cost of employees’ salaries at private companies as long as those companies do not fire people. If a company makes a notice saying that it has to either lay off 30 percent of their workers or fire at least 50 people, the state has agreed to take on 75 percent of workers’ salaries, up to $3,288 per month. (This would preserve the income for all employees earning up to $52,400 per year.)</em>\r\n<em>The philosophy here is that the government wants companies to preserve their relationship with their workers. It’s going to be harder to have a strong recovery if companies have to spend time hiring back workers that have been fired. The plan will last for three months, after which point they hope things come back to normal…</em>\r\n<em>…Denmark is putting the economy into the freezer for three months. You’re saying: We know that all these people won’t be able to work for the next few months. It’s inevitable. Rather than do rounds of firing followed by rounds of hiring, which will delay the recovery, let’s throw the whole economy into a deep freezer, and when the virus winds down we can thaw it out and almost everybody will still be with the company they worked for in January…We are freezing the economy. Because otherwise the government is afraid of the long-term damage that this will do to the entire system. The hope is that this will be over in three or four months, and then we can start up society again.</em>\r\n<em>.. To prevent the financial sector from shutting down, the state will guarantee 70 percent of new bank loans to companies. This will encourage more lending even in the case of more bankruptcies</em>\r\n<em>Also, the state agreed to compensate companies for their fixed expenses, like rent and contract obligations, depending on their level of income loss. If they typically sell $1 million in a period, but now they can only sell $100,000, they lose 90 percent of their income. That will qualify them to receive large government help to cover fixed expenses.</em>\r\n<em>Also, the spring payment of taxes for companies have been postponed until autumn, and all public employees will keep their salaries when sent home.”</em>', 'Denmark\'s Idea Could Help the World Avoid a Great Depression', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'denmarks-idea-could-help-the-world-avoid-a-great-depression', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:24:33', '2020-03-30 06:24:33', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3087', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3088, 1, '2020-03-30 06:24:18', '2020-03-30 06:24:18', 'By now we have seen most countries come up with stimulus programs to help prevent a catastrophic economic collapse caused by forced lockdowns and social distancing. However, as early as last week, Denmark rapidly stitched up with a plan which still remains the most radical of stimulus programs. Stimulus might be a misnomer given the measures actually amount to <em>‘freezing the economy’. </em>Measures that will cost the Danish government as much as 13% of GDP, all spent in three months flat.\r\n<em>“Denmark’s government agreed to cover the cost of employees’ salaries at private companies as long as those companies do not fire people. If a company makes a notice saying that it has to either lay off 30 percent of their workers or fire at least 50 people, the state has agreed to take on 75 percent of workers’ salaries, up to $3,288 per month. (This would preserve the income for all employees earning up to $52,400 per year.)</em>\r\n<em>The philosophy here is that the government wants companies to preserve their relationship with their workers. It’s going to be harder to have a strong recovery if companies have to spend time hiring back workers that have been fired. The plan will last for three months, after which point they hope things come back to normal…</em>\r\n<em>…Denmark is putting the economy into the freezer for three months. You’re saying: We know that all these people won’t be able to work for the next few months. It’s inevitable. Rather than do rounds of firing followed by rounds of hiring, which will delay the recovery, let’s throw the whole economy into a deep freezer, and when the virus winds down we can thaw it out and almost everybody will still be with the company they worked for in January…We are freezing the economy. Because otherwise the government is afraid of the long-term damage that this will do to the entire system. The hope is that this will be over in three or four months, and then we can start up society again.</em>\r\n<em>.. To prevent the financial sector from shutting down, the state will guarantee 70 percent of new bank loans to companies. This will encourage more lending even in the case of more bankruptcies</em>\r\n<em>Also, the state agreed to compensate companies for their fixed expenses, like rent and contract obligations, depending on their level of income loss. If they typically sell $1 million in a period, but now they can only sell $100,000, they lose 90 percent of their income. That will qualify them to receive large government help to cover fixed expenses.</em>\r\n<em>Also, the spring payment of taxes for companies have been postponed until autumn, and all public employees will keep their salaries when sent home.”</em>', 'Denmark\'s Idea Could Help the World Avoid a Great Depression', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3087-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:24:18', '2020-03-30 06:24:18', '', 3087, 'https://marcellus.in/3087-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3089, 1, '2020-03-29 06:27:05', '2020-03-29 06:27:05', 'Whilst Marcellus strategies have significantly outperformed during this fall, they too have fallen considerably in absolute terms. What has been a pleasant surprise though is our clients actually continuing to invest into this fall and new investors rushing to open their accounts. From our conversations with other fund managers in India and elsewhere, it seems like high net-worth individuals and retail investors are exhibiting similar maturity into buying or at least holding into the weakness. Ben Carlson in his recent blog confirms this sporadic anecdotal evidence with data from Vanguard showing only a marginal increase in retail investor activity through what has been one of the worst stock market crashes in history. Whilst it will be interesting to see how this behaviour pans out over the next few weeks if the market fall were to get nastier, Ben uses the context to lay out the hardest part of such a Buy and Hold strategy.\r\n<em>“They show that more than 90% of their self-directed investors haven’t made a single trade during the turmoil. And of the 8% or so of clients who have made portfolio changes, half of them made just one trade (and many of those trade were used to buy more stocks).</em>\r\n<em>This thing could get worse. Maybe this crash happened so quickly these investors haven’t had time to allow the situation to sink in. If stocks don’t recover quickly or continue to fall, it’s always possible passive investors will panic sell.</em>\r\n<em>But don’t go blaming mom and pop for the current volatility. They aren’t the ones doing the selling. If anything, most retail investors are doing nothing or even stepping in to buy.</em>\r\n<em>I’m sure there are bound to be some casualties of capitulation by the time this crisis is over. But that has nothing to do with the type of investment vehicles people are using. There will be long-term investors, short-term traders, hedge funds, institutional portfolio managers and plenty of other investors who will sell for the wrong reasons at the wrong time.</em>\r\n<em>If someone is buying at the bottom that means someone is on the other end of that trade selling to them.</em>\r\n<em>I’m sure there will be stories in the coming months about the death of buy and hold. You can set your watch to it during a serious bear market.</em>\r\n<em>This is only true for those who don’t understand how markets work over the long-term.</em>\r\n<em>If you’re a buy and hold investor it’s important to remember a market crisis such as this comes with the territory. I’m stating the obvious here but it’s worth repeating — the stock market has returned roughly 9.7% per year over the past 90+ years. That 9.7% includes the Great Depression, wars, recessions, rising interest rates, falling interest rates, various political regimes, bear markets, booms, busts, inflation, deflation and everything in-between.</em>\r\n<em>I’m not saying everyone should be a buy and hold investor. Much of that decision comes down to your personality and temperament. There’s no one-size-fits-all investment strategy. But if you decided to become a buy and hold investor when markets were rising, this is the point where the bill comes due.</em>\r\n<em>The hardest part of a buy and hold strategy is that for it to work as expected, you have to do both the buying and the holding when markets are falling too. It’s much easier to both buy and hold when markets are going up.”</em>', 'The Hardest Part of a Buy & Hold Strategy', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-hardest-part-of-a-buy-hold-strategy', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:27:21', '2020-03-30 06:27:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3089', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3090, 1, '2020-03-30 06:27:05', '2020-03-30 06:27:05', 'Whilst Marcellus strategies have significantly outperformed during this fall, they too have fallen considerably in absolute terms. What has been a pleasant surprise though is our clients actually continuing to invest into this fall and new investors rushing to open their accounts. From our conversations with other fund managers in India and elsewhere, it seems like high net-worth individuals and retail investors are exhibiting similar maturity into buying or at least holding into the weakness. Ben Carlson in his recent blog confirms this sporadic anecdotal evidence with data from Vanguard showing only a marginal increase in retail investor activity through what has been one of the worst stock market crashes in history. Whilst it will be interesting to see how this behaviour pans out over the next few weeks if the market fall were to get nastier, Ben uses the context to lay out the hardest part of such a Buy and Hold strategy.\r\n<em>“They show that more than 90% of their self-directed investors haven’t made a single trade during the turmoil. And of the 8% or so of clients who have made portfolio changes, half of them made just one trade (and many of those trade were used to buy more stocks).</em>\r\n<em>This thing could get worse. Maybe this crash happened so quickly these investors haven’t had time to allow the situation to sink in. If stocks don’t recover quickly or continue to fall, it’s always possible passive investors will panic sell.</em>\r\n<em>But don’t go blaming mom and pop for the current volatility. They aren’t the ones doing the selling. If anything, most retail investors are doing nothing or even stepping in to buy.</em>\r\n<em>I’m sure there are bound to be some casualties of capitulation by the time this crisis is over. But that has nothing to do with the type of investment vehicles people are using. There will be long-term investors, short-term traders, hedge funds, institutional portfolio managers and plenty of other investors who will sell for the wrong reasons at the wrong time.</em>\r\n<em>If someone is buying at the bottom that means someone is on the other end of that trade selling to them.</em>\r\n<em>I’m sure there will be stories in the coming months about the death of buy and hold. You can set your watch to it during a serious bear market.</em>\r\n<em>This is only true for those who don’t understand how markets work over the long-term.</em>\r\n<em>If you’re a buy and hold investor it’s important to remember a market crisis such as this comes with the territory. I’m stating the obvious here but it’s worth repeating — the stock market has returned roughly 9.7% per year over the past 90+ years. That 9.7% includes the Great Depression, wars, recessions, rising interest rates, falling interest rates, various political regimes, bear markets, booms, busts, inflation, deflation and everything in-between.</em>\r\n<em>I’m not saying everyone should be a buy and hold investor. Much of that decision comes down to your personality and temperament. There’s no one-size-fits-all investment strategy. But if you decided to become a buy and hold investor when markets were rising, this is the point where the bill comes due.</em>\r\n<em>The hardest part of a buy and hold strategy is that for it to work as expected, you have to do both the buying and the holding when markets are falling too. It’s much easier to both buy and hold when markets are going up.”</em>', 'The Hardest Part of a Buy & Hold Strategy', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3089-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:27:05', '2020-03-30 06:27:05', '', 3089, 'https://marcellus.in/3089-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3091, 1, '2020-03-29 06:33:12', '2020-03-29 06:33:12', 'At 3L-3S, we have featured the developments in audio tech, especially as it gets personalised with headphones and earpods and how musicians are adapting their output to these changes. Earlier this week, social media went viral with the message: <em>“Listen to this song with headphones (put on the 2 headphones). It is the new music of the Pentatonix, composed with 8D technology. Listen to it only with headphones. It will be the first time that you will listen to that song with your brain and not with your ears. You will feel the music from outside and not from the headphones. Feel the effects of this new technology” </em>with <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4435df8525&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4435df8525%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdjt_cuiZfqusaB6eP-WiDPfXgFg\">Pentatonix’s new song</a> attached to it. Whilst the experience is undoubtedly mind blowing, it isn’t clear whether it is the music itself or the tech that is delivering it. This piece in The Groove Cartel helps us understand what the whole thing about 8D is. It says that the tech is nothing new <em>“The reality is that there’s no new technology but a technique that allows hearing sounds as if you were in the middle of it. That feeling of music that runs through your head, thanks to the use of headphones, is the result of equalization techniques, panning and effects combined together. In short, panning is the ability to distribute the sound on different audio channels. If you think about your earphones, they have two physical channels: left and right. You can pan the sound all the way to the left or the right or, you can choose a specific sound to be played by one or the other earphone.</em>\r\n<em>The result is the so-called 8D audio (which has no sense as the physical space where we live is mapped on 3 dimensions) that let you appreciate sounds coming from different directions. You can find on YouTube or Soundcloud this kind of audio recordings from the lowest quality where the record simply moves from left to right without a real point or, you can find high-quality records where the sound is correctly located in a specific region of the 3D space and you can clearly hear it through your earphones.”</em>\r\nEven if it isn’t radically new tech, the novel experience is getting people attempt the technique across genres including legendary classics like <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=41425aface&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D41425aface%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNENVh7g8cEBYphEGc4pVG6u2b3fJg\">Stairway to Heaven</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5dff37d310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5dff37d310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGuK9u8N761qmKE2maUV95hRe-6CA\">Time</a>. Don’t forget to put on your headphones whilst you make peace with what looks like a protracted lockdown.', 'The “new” trend of 8D audio explained; what is it and how is it achieved?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-new-trend-of-8d-audio-explained-what-is-it-and-how-is-it-achieved', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:33:29', '2020-03-30 06:33:29', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3091', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3092, 1, '2020-03-30 06:33:12', '2020-03-30 06:33:12', 'At 3L-3S, we have featured the developments in audio tech, especially as it gets personalised with headphones and earpods and how musicians are adapting their output to these changes. Earlier this week, social media went viral with the message: <em>“Listen to this song with headphones (put on the 2 headphones). It is the new music of the Pentatonix, composed with 8D technology. Listen to it only with headphones. It will be the first time that you will listen to that song with your brain and not with your ears. You will feel the music from outside and not from the headphones. Feel the effects of this new technology” </em>with <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=4435df8525&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D4435df8525%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEdjt_cuiZfqusaB6eP-WiDPfXgFg\">Pentatonix’s new song</a> attached to it. Whilst the experience is undoubtedly mind blowing, it isn’t clear whether it is the music itself or the tech that is delivering it. This piece in The Groove Cartel helps us understand what the whole thing about 8D is. It says that the tech is nothing new <em>“The reality is that there’s no new technology but a technique that allows hearing sounds as if you were in the middle of it. That feeling of music that runs through your head, thanks to the use of headphones, is the result of equalization techniques, panning and effects combined together. In short, panning is the ability to distribute the sound on different audio channels. If you think about your earphones, they have two physical channels: left and right. You can pan the sound all the way to the left or the right or, you can choose a specific sound to be played by one or the other earphone.</em>\r\n<em>The result is the so-called 8D audio (which has no sense as the physical space where we live is mapped on 3 dimensions) that let you appreciate sounds coming from different directions. You can find on YouTube or Soundcloud this kind of audio recordings from the lowest quality where the record simply moves from left to right without a real point or, you can find high-quality records where the sound is correctly located in a specific region of the 3D space and you can clearly hear it through your earphones.”</em>\r\nEven if it isn’t radically new tech, the novel experience is getting people attempt the technique across genres including legendary classics like <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=41425aface&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D41425aface%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNENVh7g8cEBYphEGc4pVG6u2b3fJg\">Stairway to Heaven</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=5dff37d310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D5dff37d310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585626399747000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGuK9u8N761qmKE2maUV95hRe-6CA\">Time</a>. Don’t forget to put on your headphones whilst you make peace with what looks like a protracted lockdown.', 'The “new” trend of 8D audio explained; what is it and how is it achieved?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3091-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-03-30 06:33:12', '2020-03-30 06:33:12', '', 3091, 'https://marcellus.in/3091-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3099, 1, '2020-04-06 04:11:02', '2020-04-06 04:11:02', '', 'newsletter 3', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter-3', '', '', '2020-04-06 04:11:02', '2020-04-06 04:11:02', '', 3098, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-3.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3100, 1, '2020-04-06 04:11:04', '2020-04-06 04:11:04', '', 'newsletter 2', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter-2', '', '', '2020-04-06 04:11:04', '2020-04-06 04:11:04', '', 3098, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-2.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3101, 1, '2020-04-06 04:11:06', '2020-04-06 04:11:06', '', 'newsletter 1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter-1', '', '', '2020-04-06 04:11:06', '2020-04-06 04:11:06', '', 3098, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/newsletter-1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3096, 1, '2020-04-01 12:06:43', '2020-04-01 12:06:43', '<strong>…or how the free market messes with our minds. As we end Marcellus’ first full financial year with healthy absolute and relative returns, we are beginning to comprehend just how profoundly market forces can wreck our clarity of thought. Whilst man’s desire to know his future is primordial, the free market taps into this desire to comprehensively destroy logical thought. We thus end up becoming shadows of our true selves – rational people reduced to illogical wrecks at best and snake oil salesmen at worst. How then can we avoid this fate? A new book shows us the way forward.</strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3097 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Capture.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"393\" height=\"537\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;', 'Knowing the Unknowable…', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3095-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-04-01 12:06:43', '2020-04-01 12:06:43', '', 3095, 'https://marcellus.in/3095-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3097, 1, '2020-04-01 12:05:46', '2020-04-01 12:05:46', '', 'Capture', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'capture-5', '', '', '2020-04-01 12:05:46', '2020-04-01 12:05:46', '', 3095, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Capture.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3102, 1, '2020-04-06 04:23:29', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'CCP’s performance in FY20 fully supported by earnings growth', '', 'draft', 'closed', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2020-04-06 04:23:29', '2020-04-06 04:23:29', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3102', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3477, 1, '2020-06-08 18:54:34', '2020-06-08 18:54:34', '', 'LCP NRE', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-nre', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:54:34', '2020-06-08 18:54:34', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-NRE.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3105, 1, '2020-04-06 11:26:40', '2020-04-06 11:26:40', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-06 11:26:40', '2020-04-06 11:26:40', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3106, 1, '2020-04-06 11:31:16', '2020-04-06 11:31:16', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-06 11:31:16', '2020-04-06 11:31:16', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3107, 1, '2020-04-07 18:32:06', '2020-04-07 18:32:06', '<strong>We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a potential global recession. In fact, Little Champs are likely to emerge relatively stronger out of the situation as they can afford to invest in business growth (product/process innovation, market expansion) through the crisis but most of their peers cannot. Hence, we expect the Little Champs portfolio to demonstrate resilience in the market downturn (portfolio down 15% since January 2020 vs BSE Smallcap’s 30%) as well as to recover faster as the uncertainty fades.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\r\n\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3108 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"905\" height=\"404\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>COVID-19:  Where do we stand?</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/little-champs/the-trinity-of-higher-roce-high-reinvestment-and-high-growth/\">March 2020 Little Champs newsletter</a>, we had discussed that we see limited long term impacts of COVID-19 on our Little Champs portfolio. Since the time we wrote that newsletter, there has been a mix of positive and negative developments concerning the disease:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>On the positive side, China and certain countries like South Korea, the earliest epicentres of the virus seem to have succeeded considerably in bringing it under control. Our channel checks with businesses having Chinese supply chain links indicate that Chinese factories have resumed production across most regions and industries in the month of March. Hence, the experience from these countries do suggest that measures like lockdown and self-distancing (currently the de-factor measures employed by most of the affected countries) do help to contain the spread of the virus.</li>\r\n 	<li>However, on the negative side, Europe and USA have emerged as the new hotspots over the last month with still a lot of uncertainty where we stand in the cycle of infections/deaths in these regions (although even in Europe and USA the number of new cases is now falling). Similarly, here in India, the daily numbers are witnessing an acceleration though the overall numbers suggest that the situation is still under control.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, over the last one month, the concerns related to Covid-19 with respect to Indian companies has shifted from being a supply-side issue (disruption in imports from China) to a demand side issue (domestic lockdown and disruption in Europe/USA- the biggest export markets for Indian companies).\r\n\r\n<strong>Impact on the Little Champs portfolio</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our 23rd <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/video/impact-of-ongoing-events/\">March, 2020 webinar</a>, we had discussed our thoughts on how we see the impact of Covid-19 on Marcellus’ portfolios including Little Champs. We reproduce those thoughts below:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Sharp but only a brief lasting impact of the disease: </strong>Marcellus’ base case assumption for this event is that the disease will last for a few months rather than years. The improving situation in China and certain other countries (such as Korea) gives us confidence about this assumption. Hence, we believe the domestic lockdown (impacting both demand and production) will last a few months. This sharp but brief impact is somewhat similar to that of the Global Financial Crisis and Demonetisation on the Indian economy.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Little Champs’ strong balance sheets will help navigate short-term liquidity stress better than leveraged peers: </strong>During the lockdown, companies will not be able to generate revenues but at the same time have to continue incurring fixed costs such as payment of salaries to the employees, rentals, retainerships, utilities etc (the RBI has announced a 3 month moratorium on debt repayments). Most of the Little Champs portfolio companies with net cash on their balance sheets would be able to withstand the net cash outflows in the interim much better than their highly leveraged peers. Just to quantify - even after conservatively assuming that Little Champs portfolio companies suffer cash fixed costs for the next six months without any corresponding revenue, the weighted average net debt (cash) equity for the portfolio (ex-financials) increases from (0.11)x (i.e. net cash) at March 2020-end to just 0.11x at September 2020-end. That still leaves a lot of firepower for our investees to invest in growing their businesses.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3109 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"523\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Opportunity for Little Champs to accelerate market share gains in current situation: </strong>Little Champs portfolio companies have generated weighted net earnings CAGR of 21% over FY14-20. This healthy earnings growth is during a period where the broader corporate earnings have been hard to come by (Nifty net earnings CAGR for the same period has been only 3%) marked by disruptive events like demonetisation, GST introduction and the economic slowdown (pre-COVID) of FY20. A key part of this earnings outperformance for Little Champs has been thanks to their superior RoCEs and resulting surplus cashflows which they have deployed into strengthening their franchises viz. investing in products/people/technology, expanding distribution networks and thereby gaining share from weaker peers. We have dealt this in detail in our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/little-champs/the-trinity-of-higher-roce-high-reinvestment-and-high-growth/\">March 2020 newsletter</a> Little Champs newsletter also.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3110 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"571\" />\r\n\r\nWe don’t see any reason why the last 5 years’ story can’t play out in the current situation; in fact logic suggests an acceleration in market share by Little Champs going forward. The strong balance sheets of the Little Champs enable them to not only survive the short-term stress but also to continue to invest for future growth unlike their cash starved smaller peers for whom survival will be the key focus over the next few months.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Financial Services stocks in the portfolio well placed to consolidate market share: </strong>The ongoing ‘lockdown’ in domestic economic activity will certainly lead to short term (2-4 months) suppression in revenues, earnings and cash flows of businesses across most parts of the economy. Undoubtedly this will result in a rise in NPAs and reduction in loan book growth rates for lenders during the 2-4 months period of lockdown. In our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/\">1<sup>st</sup> November 2019</a> Consistent Compounders newsletter, we had explained how great lenders undergo a temporary deterioration in their financials during such a crisis, but are best placed to consolidate their market share once the crisis is over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe believe that financials stock in our portfolio (one bank and one NBFC) are best positioned to consolidate lending market share over the next 3-4 years because of a combination of: a) a strong liabilities franchise with favorable Assets Liabilities Management (ALM) profile; b) comfortable capital adequacy ratios; c) superior quality of loan book compared to their competitors; and d) superior collections capabilities vs peers. Hence, any short-term moderation in earnings growth trajectory of these firms is likely to be more than offset by acceleration in earnings growth through market share gains over the next 3 years.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3111 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"160\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Limited impact on exporters in our portfolio</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWith Europe and USA, the key destinations for Indian exporters (also for the Little Champs portfolio companies with exports exposure) witnessing a lockdown and a possibility of near-term recession, there are genuine concerns surrounding the companies with export exposure. In our Little Champs portfolio, there are six stocks where revenues from exports exceed &gt;20% of total revenues (weighted average export revenue share for the portfolio is close to 22%). However, we see limited impacts due to the reasons mentioned in the below exhibit.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3112 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"589\" height=\"491\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Some mitigating factors that can also help cushion Little Champs’s fundamentals in FY21</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Most of the Little Champs portfolio companies deal in products &amp; services (Financials, auto, pharma, light industrials, retail) where demand may be deferred in a weak economic environment but certainly not cancelled unlike sectors such as media &amp; entertainment. Hence, pent-up demand in such cases can led to a sharper recovery for the Little Champs portfolio.</li>\r\n 	<li>Liquidity easing measures by most of the Central Banks globally which has more spending power in the hands of the consumer which can also aid faster recovery when the uncertainty fades.</li>\r\n 	<li>A sharp fall in crude oil prices which is positive for earnings of many of our portfolio companies.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Lessons from the past: Superior quality smallcaps recover faster than the broader smallcaps universe</strong>\r\n\r\nAfter a 14-month long fall in the stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis, the market bottomed out on 9<sup>th</sup> March 2009. As shown in the exhibit below superior quality small-caps <em>(</em><em>We define ‘Superior quality smallcaps as meeting three criteria – a) FY04-08 median RoCE of 20%; (b) Earnings growth over FY03-08 of 15% and above; and (b) FY08-end net debt equity of 1x and below)</em> recovered back to its pre-crash levels by November 2009 i.e. <strong><em><u>within 8 months</u></em></strong> of the market bottoming out in March 2009. This is mainly on account of all the factors explained above on how strong franchises are able to consolidate their position in a downturn, emerge stronger and hence gain disproportionate benefits of a market recovery.\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, weaker smaller peers get structurally damaged during a slowdown as most of them face existential issues. Similarly, in a market slowdown, a whole host of smallcaps with questionable corporate governance go down the drain. This is suitably demonstrated in the below chart where the broader small-caps universe had not even managed to reach the pre-crisis level by November 2010 (i.e. nearly 20 months from the market bottoming out). Not surprisingly, the BSE SmallCap Index recovered to its January 2008 level in February 2017 i.e. <strong><u>after nearly 9 long years</u>.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3113 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"317\" />', 'Strength & Resilience in Difficult Times', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'strength-resilience-in-difficult-times', '', '', '2020-04-07 18:32:34', '2020-04-07 18:32:34', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3107', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(3114, 1, '2020-04-07 18:32:39', '2020-04-07 18:32:39', '<strong>We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a potential global recession. In fact, Little Champs are likely to emerge relatively stronger out of the situation as they can afford to invest in business growth (product/process innovation, market expansion) through the crisis but most of their peers cannot. Hence, we expect the Little Champs portfolio to demonstrate resilience in the market downturn (portfolio down 15% since January 2020 vs BSE Smallcap’s 30%) as well as to recover faster as the uncertainty fades.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of the “Little Champs” Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\r\n\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3108 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"905\" height=\"404\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>COVID-19:  Where do we stand?</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/little-champs/the-trinity-of-higher-roce-high-reinvestment-and-high-growth/\">March 2020 Little Champs newsletter</a>, we had discussed that we see limited long term impacts of COVID-19 on our Little Champs portfolio. Since the time we wrote that newsletter, there has been a mix of positive and negative developments concerning the disease:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>On the positive side, China and certain countries like South Korea, the earliest epicentres of the virus seem to have succeeded considerably in bringing it under control. Our channel checks with businesses having Chinese supply chain links indicate that Chinese factories have resumed production across most regions and industries in the month of March. Hence, the experience from these countries do suggest that measures like lockdown and self-distancing (currently the de-factor measures employed by most of the affected countries) do help to contain the spread of the virus.</li>\r\n 	<li>However, on the negative side, Europe and USA have emerged as the new hotspots over the last month with still a lot of uncertainty where we stand in the cycle of infections/deaths in these regions (although even in Europe and USA the number of new cases is now falling). Similarly, here in India, the daily numbers are witnessing an acceleration though the overall numbers suggest that the situation is still under control.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, over the last one month, the concerns related to Covid-19 with respect to Indian companies has shifted from being a supply-side issue (disruption in imports from China) to a demand side issue (domestic lockdown and disruption in Europe/USA- the biggest export markets for Indian companies).\r\n\r\n<strong>Impact on the Little Champs portfolio</strong>\r\n\r\nIn our 23rd <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/video/impact-of-ongoing-events/\">March, 2020 webinar</a>, we had discussed our thoughts on how we see the impact of Covid-19 on Marcellus’ portfolios including Little Champs. We reproduce those thoughts below:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Sharp but only a brief lasting impact of the disease: </strong>Marcellus’ base case assumption for this event is that the disease will last for a few months rather than years. The improving situation in China and certain other countries (such as Korea) gives us confidence about this assumption. Hence, we believe the domestic lockdown (impacting both demand and production) will last a few months. This sharp but brief impact is somewhat similar to that of the Global Financial Crisis and Demonetisation on the Indian economy.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Little Champs’ strong balance sheets will help navigate short-term liquidity stress better than leveraged peers: </strong>During the lockdown, companies will not be able to generate revenues but at the same time have to continue incurring fixed costs such as payment of salaries to the employees, rentals, retainerships, utilities etc (the RBI has announced a 3 month moratorium on debt repayments). Most of the Little Champs portfolio companies with net cash on their balance sheets would be able to withstand the net cash outflows in the interim much better than their highly leveraged peers. Just to quantify - even after conservatively assuming that Little Champs portfolio companies suffer cash fixed costs for the next six months without any corresponding revenue, the weighted average net debt (cash) equity for the portfolio (ex-financials) increases from (0.11)x (i.e. net cash) at March 2020-end to just 0.11x at September 2020-end. That still leaves a lot of firepower for our investees to invest in growing their businesses.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3109 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"914\" height=\"523\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Opportunity for Little Champs to accelerate market share gains in current situation: </strong>Little Champs portfolio companies have generated weighted net earnings CAGR of 21% over FY14-20. This healthy earnings growth is during a period where the broader corporate earnings have been hard to come by (Nifty net earnings CAGR for the same period has been only 3%) marked by disruptive events like demonetisation, GST introduction and the economic slowdown (pre-COVID) of FY20. A key part of this earnings outperformance for Little Champs has been thanks to their superior RoCEs and resulting surplus cashflows which they have deployed into strengthening their franchises viz. investing in products/people/technology, expanding distribution networks and thereby gaining share from weaker peers. We have dealt this in detail in our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/little-champs/the-trinity-of-higher-roce-high-reinvestment-and-high-growth/\">March 2020 newsletter</a> Little Champs newsletter also.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3110 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"918\" height=\"571\" />\r\n\r\nWe don’t see any reason why the last 5 years’ story can’t play out in the current situation; in fact logic suggests an acceleration in market share by Little Champs going forward. The strong balance sheets of the Little Champs enable them to not only survive the short-term stress but also to continue to invest for future growth unlike their cash starved smaller peers for whom survival will be the key focus over the next few months.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Financial Services stocks in the portfolio well placed to consolidate market share: </strong>The ongoing ‘lockdown’ in domestic economic activity will certainly lead to short term (2-4 months) suppression in revenues, earnings and cash flows of businesses across most parts of the economy. Undoubtedly this will result in a rise in NPAs and reduction in loan book growth rates for lenders during the 2-4 months period of lockdown. In our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/the-lenders-in-our-portfolio-will-gain-from-the-ongoing-crisis/\">1<sup>st</sup> November 2019</a> Consistent Compounders newsletter, we had explained how great lenders undergo a temporary deterioration in their financials during such a crisis, but are best placed to consolidate their market share once the crisis is over.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWe believe that financials stock in our portfolio (one bank and one NBFC) are best positioned to consolidate lending market share over the next 3-4 years because of a combination of: a) a strong liabilities franchise with favorable Assets Liabilities Management (ALM) profile; b) comfortable capital adequacy ratios; c) superior quality of loan book compared to their competitors; and d) superior collections capabilities vs peers. Hence, any short-term moderation in earnings growth trajectory of these firms is likely to be more than offset by acceleration in earnings growth through market share gains over the next 3 years.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3111 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"160\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Limited impact on exporters in our portfolio</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\nWith Europe and USA, the key destinations for Indian exporters (also for the Little Champs portfolio companies with exports exposure) witnessing a lockdown and a possibility of near-term recession, there are genuine concerns surrounding the companies with export exposure. In our Little Champs portfolio, there are six stocks where revenues from exports exceed &gt;20% of total revenues (weighted average export revenue share for the portfolio is close to 22%). However, we see limited impacts due to the reasons mentioned in the below exhibit.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3112 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"589\" height=\"491\" />\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Some mitigating factors that can also help cushion Little Champs’s fundamentals in FY21</strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Most of the Little Champs portfolio companies deal in products &amp; services (Financials, auto, pharma, light industrials, retail) where demand may be deferred in a weak economic environment but certainly not cancelled unlike sectors such as media &amp; entertainment. Hence, pent-up demand in such cases can led to a sharper recovery for the Little Champs portfolio.</li>\r\n 	<li>Liquidity easing measures by most of the Central Banks globally which has more spending power in the hands of the consumer which can also aid faster recovery when the uncertainty fades.</li>\r\n 	<li>A sharp fall in crude oil prices which is positive for earnings of many of our portfolio companies.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong>Lessons from the past: Superior quality smallcaps recover faster than the broader smallcaps universe</strong>\r\n\r\nAfter a 14-month long fall in the stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis, the market bottomed out on 9<sup>th</sup> March 2009. As shown in the exhibit below superior quality small-caps <em>(</em><em>We define ‘Superior quality smallcaps as meeting three criteria – a) FY04-08 median RoCE of 20%; (b) Earnings growth over FY03-08 of 15% and above; and (b) FY08-end net debt equity of 1x and below)</em> recovered back to its pre-crash levels by November 2009 i.e. <strong><em><u>within 8 months</u></em></strong> of the market bottoming out in March 2009. This is mainly on account of all the factors explained above on how strong franchises are able to consolidate their position in a downturn, emerge stronger and hence gain disproportionate benefits of a market recovery.\r\n\r\nOn the other hand, weaker smaller peers get structurally damaged during a slowdown as most of them face existential issues. Similarly, in a market slowdown, a whole host of smallcaps with questionable corporate governance go down the drain. This is suitably demonstrated in the below chart where the broader small-caps universe had not even managed to reach the pre-crisis level by November 2010 (i.e. nearly 20 months from the market bottoming out). Not surprisingly, the BSE SmallCap Index recovered to its January 2008 level in February 2017 i.e. <strong><u>after nearly 9 long years</u>.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong> </strong><img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3113 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/lcp-nl-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"570\" height=\"317\" />', 'Strength & Resilience in Difficult Times', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3107-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-04-07 18:32:39', '2020-04-07 18:32:39', '', 3107, 'https://marcellus.in/3107-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3468, 1, '2020-06-08 18:21:16', '2020-06-08 18:21:16', '', 'LLP CCP', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'llp-ccp', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:21:16', '2020-06-08 18:21:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LLP-CCP.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3118, 1, '2020-04-08 12:55:32', '2020-04-08 12:55:32', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-08 12:55:32', '2020-04-08 12:55:32', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3120, 1, '2020-04-12 06:37:59', '2020-04-12 06:37:59', '<div>50% of our calls with our clients during the lockdown hinges around the client probing us on whether the bottom has been reached (in terms of the Indian market bottoming out). As you would expect, our view is that neither we nor anyone else knows whether the market has bottomed or whether it will bottom out next Wednesday at 11.20am. However, clients don’t like hearing this answer. So, reading this piece from Ben Carlson, the famous wealth manager at Ritholtz, the New York City based wealth manager, brought a smile to our locked down faces.\r\nAs with all good writers, Ben begins by making an obvious point: <em>“I’m surprised we haven’t heard of a bazooka purchase from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway yet. Buffett is known for finding deals at favorable terms during a crisis.</em>\r\n<em>There is no shortage of companies or entire industries that could use Berkshire’s war chest of cash at the moment. This feels like a ‘when?’ not an ‘if?’ situation and I’m sure plenty of investors will be interested in seeing what Buffett and Munger finally do when they make a decision. Regardless of what the Oracle ends up buying, Buffett can’t time the bottom any better than you or I.”</em>\r\nAnd then Ben points out Buffett doesn’t need to time the bottom insofar as Buffett’s ability to generate returns is not dependent on him timing the market: “<em>When the stock market took a nosedive in the 1960s, one of Buffett’s clients called to warn him that stocks would surely fall further. Buffett responded with two questions:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>If you knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t you let me know it then?</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>And if you didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do you know in May?”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div>Then Ben goes on to highlight that 3 and 5 year returns in the US after a bear market have usually been pretty good: <em>“Average returns following bear markets have been 52%, 89% and 132% respectively over the ensuing one, three, and five year periods. Of course, these returns come from the depths of the bear markets….</em>\r\n<em>Six out of the eleven bear markets of 30% or worse went down more than 40%. Stocks would have to fall another 15% or so from here to be down 40% in total.</em>\r\n<em>Three of the eleven bear markets of 30% or worse went down more than 50%. Stocks would have to fall another 30% or so from here to be down 50% in total.”</em>\r\nFinally, Ben gives an example of how Buffett makes buckets of money even without nailing the bottom: <em>“In mid-October of 2008, Warren Buffett penned an op-ed for the New York Times entitled, “Buy American. I am.” At that point the S&amp;P 500 was nearly 40% off its highs and in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.</em>\r\n<em>Buffett stated: “The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So … I’ve been buying American stocks.”</em>\r\n<em>Sound familiar? Stocks would fall a further 30% or so from the day Buffett said he was buying stocks. Even the world’s greatest investor cannot nail the bottom in a falling market.</em>\r\n<em>But had you purchased a simple S&amp;P 500 index fund on the very same day Buffett said he was buying, you would be up more than 220% right now (and that includes the recent sell-off).”</em></div>', 'Even Warren Buffett Can’t Nail the Bottom', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'even-warren-buffett-cant-nail-the-bottom', '', '', '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3120', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3121, 1, '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '<div>50% of our calls with our clients during the lockdown hinges around the client probing us on whether the bottom has been reached (in terms of the Indian market bottoming out). As you would expect, our view is that neither we nor anyone else knows whether the market has bottomed or whether it will bottom out next Wednesday at 11.20am. However, clients don’t like hearing this answer. So, reading this piece from Ben Carlson, the famous wealth manager at Ritholtz, the New York City based wealth manager, brought a smile to our locked down faces.\r\nAs with all good writers, Ben begins by making an obvious point: <em>“I’m surprised we haven’t heard of a bazooka purchase from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway yet. Buffett is known for finding deals at favorable terms during a crisis.</em>\r\n<em>There is no shortage of companies or entire industries that could use Berkshire’s war chest of cash at the moment. This feels like a ‘when?’ not an ‘if?’ situation and I’m sure plenty of investors will be interested in seeing what Buffett and Munger finally do when they make a decision. Regardless of what the Oracle ends up buying, Buffett can’t time the bottom any better than you or I.”</em>\r\nAnd then Ben points out Buffett doesn’t need to time the bottom insofar as Buffett’s ability to generate returns is not dependent on him timing the market: “<em>When the stock market took a nosedive in the 1960s, one of Buffett’s clients called to warn him that stocks would surely fall further. Buffett responded with two questions:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>If you knew in February that the Dow was going to 865 in May, why didn’t you let me know it then?</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>And if you didn’t know what was going to happen during the ensuing three months back in February, how do you know in May?”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div>Then Ben goes on to highlight that 3 and 5 year returns in the US after a bear market have usually been pretty good: <em>“Average returns following bear markets have been 52%, 89% and 132% respectively over the ensuing one, three, and five year periods. Of course, these returns come from the depths of the bear markets….</em>\r\n<em>Six out of the eleven bear markets of 30% or worse went down more than 40%. Stocks would have to fall another 15% or so from here to be down 40% in total.</em>\r\n<em>Three of the eleven bear markets of 30% or worse went down more than 50%. Stocks would have to fall another 30% or so from here to be down 50% in total.”</em>\r\nFinally, Ben gives an example of how Buffett makes buckets of money even without nailing the bottom: <em>“In mid-October of 2008, Warren Buffett penned an op-ed for the New York Times entitled, “Buy American. I am.” At that point the S&amp;P 500 was nearly 40% off its highs and in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.</em>\r\n<em>Buffett stated: “The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary. So … I’ve been buying American stocks.”</em>\r\n<em>Sound familiar? Stocks would fall a further 30% or so from the day Buffett said he was buying stocks. Even the world’s greatest investor cannot nail the bottom in a falling market.</em>\r\n<em>But had you purchased a simple S&amp;P 500 index fund on the very same day Buffett said he was buying, you would be up more than 220% right now (and that includes the recent sell-off).”</em></div>', 'Even Warren Buffett Can’t Nail the Bottom', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3120-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '2020-04-13 06:43:25', '', 3120, 'https://marcellus.in/3120-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3122, 1, '2020-04-12 06:43:40', '2020-04-12 06:43:40', 'This blog from Klement renders yeoman service for HNWs by refuting the notion that HNWs should put all their eggs in one basket and then watch that basket really closely. The blog uses a clever study conducted by an Indian academic to attack the latter part of the proposition given in the previous sentence: <em>“Didn’t Andrew Carnegie say the way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket? However, the evidence is mounting that your performance becomes worse, the more you watch that basket.</em>\r\n<em>Ellapulli Vasudevan looked at the portfolios of 308,000 Finnish investors between 1995 and 2014 as well as 76,000 US investors between 1991 and 1996. He found that many investors tended to buy and sell the same stock over and over again. About 40% of investors sold all of their holdings in a stock just to buy it again at a later time. And 10% of investors engaged in at least 6 of such roundtrips….As I have written before, these investors are more likely to sell their stocks when they are sitting on a gain than when they are sitting on a loss, but what is novel about Vasudevan’s research is that he shows what happens once investors have sold the stock.</em>\r\n<em>It is most likely for investors to sell a stock when they have made a profit but experienced some recent setbacks in the stock. They have made good experiences but held the stock too long, so when they buy the stock back they tend to watch the basket of eggs even more closely. This way, it seems, they are trying to avoid the lost return from holding the stock for too long. But what they effectively do is teach themselves to become short-term traders. Every time they buy the same stock again, the average holding period declines by about 11%.”</em>\r\nSo why do investors do this? Why do their holding period for the same stock progressively fall every time they buy it again? <em>“Unfortunately, by watching their stocks more closely, they are more likely to react to short-term noise. As they try to anticipate the next correction, the returns of their stocks become smaller and smaller. The chart below shows the annualised alpha relative to the market for every roundtrip. Because every roundtrip becomes shorter and shorter, one would naturally expect the alpha to become smaller, but the annualisation guarantees that this effect is compensated for. And yet, every time they buy the same stock again, the performance relative to the market declines.”</em>\r\nThe blog then goes on to show when investors stop behaving this – when they stop making money from making these round trips.', 'The more you know a stock the worse your performance gets', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-more-you-know-a-stock-the-worse-your-performance-gets', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:50:20', '2020-04-13 09:50:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3122', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3123, 1, '2020-04-13 09:02:14', '2020-04-13 09:02:14', 'This blog from Klement renders yeoman service for HNWs by refuting the notion that HNWs should put all their eggs in one basket and then watch that basket really closely. The blog uses a clever study conducted by an Indian academic to attack the latter part of the proposition given in the previous sentence: <em>“Didn’t Andrew Carnegie say the way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket? However, the evidence is mounting that your performance becomes worse, the more you watch that basket.</em>\r\n<em>Ellapulli Vasudevan looked at the portfolios of 308,000 Finnish investors between 1995 and 2014 as well as 76,000 US investors between 1991 and 1996. He found that many investors tended to buy and sell the same stock over and over again. About 40% of investors sold all of their holdings in a stock just to buy it again at a later time. And 10% of investors engaged in at least 6 of such roundtrips….As I have written before, these investors are more likely to sell their stocks when they are sitting on a gain than when they are sitting on a loss, but what is novel about Vasudevan’s research is that he shows what happens once investors have sold the stock.</em>\r\n<em>It is most likely for investors to sell a stock when they have made a profit but experienced some recent setbacks in the stock. They have made good experiences but held the stock too long, so when they buy the stock back they tend to watch the basket of eggs even more closely. This way, it seems, they are trying to avoid the lost return from holding the stock for too long. But what they effectively do is teach themselves to become short-term traders. Every time they buy the same stock again, the average holding period declines by about 11%.”</em>\r\nSo why do investors do this? Why do their holding period for the same stock progressively fall every time they buy it again? <em>“Unfortunately, by watching their stocks more closely, they are more likely to react to short-term noise. As they try to anticipate the next correction, the returns of their stocks become smaller and smaller. The chart below shows the annualised alpha relative to the market for every roundtrip. Because every roundtrip becomes shorter and shorter, one would naturally expect the alpha to become smaller, but the annualisation guarantees that this effect is compensated for. And yet, every time they buy the same stock again, the performance relative to the market declines.”</em>\r\nThe blog then goes on to show when investors stop behaving this – when they stop making money from making these round trips.', 'The more you know a stock the worse your performance gets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3122-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:02:14', '2020-04-13 09:02:14', '', 3122, 'https://marcellus.in/3122-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3124, 1, '2020-04-12 09:02:33', '2020-04-12 09:02:33', 'Brilliant piece by John Authers, the veteran markets commentator formerly with the FT. John brings back memories of LTCM, the hedge fund which went belly up in the late nineties and how nothing really has changed since then. The S&amp;P500 lost a staggering 33% in a little over 20 trading days and then back to technical bull market territory with a 25% gain in 13 trading days flat in what is clearly a never seen before steep fall and a sharp rise. Whilst the emergence of passive funds and algo trading have been blamed for the same, John highlights the role of the now too familiar villain that is leverage for this sort of amplified market movements with a special focus on the bond markets where the US treasury yield has seen unprecedented levels. From LTCM to the sub-prime mortgage crisis to Covid, the role of leverage in asset markets has only risen as regulators have only used lowering of interest rates followed by quantitative easing to douse these crises, which in turn fuelled another leverage driven asset rally only to be followed by another crisis. And this time is no different as the Fed along with other G-7 central banks has thrown another bout of QE adding up to $1.7trn in March alone putting to shame the previous QE high of a paltry $275bn in April 2009.\r\n<em>“A few weeks ago, I recommended When Genius Failed, Roger Lowenstein’s masterly narrative of the meltdown and rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, as one of five books to read in self- isolation. It is a great read, and I suggested it because it covers a crisis that was in many ways a rehearsal for the all-in disaster that would follow 10 years later. The interest rate cuts and coordinated bailout with which the Federal Reserve dealt with LTCM might even be seen as the crucial acts in stoking the moral hazard and over-confidence that gave us 2008.</em>\r\n<em>I must confess that I didn’t recommend it as a description of what was happening currently in the bond market. But it turns out that genius failed again. The Bank for International Settlements has put out a fascinating report on events last month. These are the key takeaways: For a reminder, this is what happened to 10-year Treasury bonds during  March: The 1% barrier had never been breached before, but once 10-year yields fell through that level, they were soon below 0.5%....Obviously, the market suffered some kind of an accident; there was no explanation for moves like this in the macro-economy.</em>\r\n<em>Dealing with that accident didn’t come cheap. The bond market has returned to (relative) calm this month, but only after the Fed threw some $2 trillion at the problem, with a massive program of asset purchases that in scale equaled the first wave of quantitative easing after the Lehman bankruptcy.</em>\r\n<em>It was far more costly than LTCM: The BIS researchers suggest the problem started with hedge funds taking on too much leverage to bet on what should have been simple market discrepancies. This is exactly what happened at LTCM: taking a long position in one security and a short position in another and then leveraging it up many times.</em>\r\n<em>The problem arises with feedback loops. In an orderly market, sales tend to beget buys by others, who see that a price has fallen too far. But in extreme conditions such as in early March, sales force funds to deal with redemptions and lead to further sales. As the BIS researchers put it: One example is when an investor has borrowed money to purchase assets. When the asset price falls and threatens the investor’s solvency, the lender will call in the loan, forcing the investor to sell. In this way, a price decline can lead to further sales, not purchases. Without dealers who can absorb sales and stabilise prices, a feedback loop may develop where price declines beget more sales, leading to further price declines.</em>\r\n<em>As people grasped how severe the Covid-19 shock to the economy would be, this appears to have been exactly what happened. One “tell” of this is the gap between yields on Treasuries (which take up room on an investor’s balance sheet), and equivalent swaps (which don’t). The widening of this gap in mid-March showed that investors were desperate not to use up space on their balance sheet:</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, funds had sharply increased the leverage they had taken on. This was decreasing slightly by the end of 2019, but the BIS shows that leverage had risen at a startling rate through 2018 and early 2019 (and appeared unaffected by the major market breaks in February and December of 2018): So a lot of hedge funds were caught with over-leveraged positions that turned bad.  (This happened to LTCM.) This became more of a systemic incident because of another problem, with the supply of bonds. The number of primary dealers in the system has reduced since the last crisis, largely as an unintended consequence of post-crisis re-regulation. But supply of new bonds from the Treasury has been heavy for the last two years. Following the tax cut at the end of 2017, the government has a much bigger deficit to finance, while the Fed was for much of that period adding to the number of bonds in the system as it reduced its balance sheet. That left primary dealers with far more bonds on their hands than they wanted, and therefore more reluctance to step in as buyers of last resort.</em>\r\n<em>…So what should happen now? A lot of the BIS recommendations sound similar to proposals for reform that followed the last crisis, so it is depressing they haven’t been made. Market monitoring, the authors say, should look beyond the present and ask “what-if” questions. If stress tests are to be effective, they must look at the possibility for negative feedback loops and forced sales “especially in tranquil periods when leverage is building up”. In other words, regulators still hadn’t learned the lessons of Hyman Minsky, also very much in vogue and well aired at crisis time, that stability tends to create instability.”</em>', 'Hedge-Fund Geniuses Failed Again. When Will We Learn?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'hedge-fund-geniuses-failed-again-when-will-we-learn', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:47:32', '2020-04-13 09:47:32', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3124', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3125, 1, '2020-04-13 09:05:11', '2020-04-13 09:05:11', 'Brilliant piece by John Authers, the veteran markets commentator formerly with the FT. John brings back memories of LTCM, the hedge fund which went belly up in the late nineties and how nothing really has changed since then. The S&amp;P500 lost a staggering 33% in a little over 20 trading days and then back to technical bull market territory with a 25% gain in 13 trading days flat in what is clearly a never seen before steep fall and a sharp rise. Whilst the emergence of passive funds and algo trading have been blamed for the same, John highlights the role of the now too familiar villain that is leverage for this sort of amplified market movements with a special focus on the bond markets where the US treasury yield has seen unprecedented levels. From LTCM to the sub-prime mortgage crisis to Covid, the role of leverage in asset markets has only risen as regulators have only used lowering of interest rates followed by quantitative easing to douse these crises, which in turn fuelled another leverage driven asset rally only to be followed by another crisis. And this time is no different as the Fed along with other G-7 central banks has thrown another bout of QE adding up to $1.7trn in March alone putting to shame the previous QE high of a paltry $275bn in April 2009.\r\n<em>“A few weeks ago, I recommended When Genius Failed, Roger Lowenstein’s masterly narrative of the meltdown and rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, as one of five books to read in self- isolation. It is a great read, and I suggested it because it covers a crisis that was in many ways a rehearsal for the all-in disaster that would follow 10 years later. The interest rate cuts and coordinated bailout with which the Federal Reserve dealt with LTCM might even be seen as the crucial acts in stoking the moral hazard and over-confidence that gave us 2008.</em>\r\n<em>I must confess that I didn’t recommend it as a description of what was happening currently in the bond market. But it turns out that genius failed again. The Bank for International Settlements has put out a fascinating report on events last month. These are the key takeaways: For a reminder, this is what happened to 10-year Treasury bonds during  March: The 1% barrier had never been breached before, but once 10-year yields fell through that level, they were soon below 0.5%....Obviously, the market suffered some kind of an accident; there was no explanation for moves like this in the macro-economy.</em>\r\n<em>Dealing with that accident didn’t come cheap. The bond market has returned to (relative) calm this month, but only after the Fed threw some $2 trillion at the problem, with a massive program of asset purchases that in scale equaled the first wave of quantitative easing after the Lehman bankruptcy.</em>\r\n<em>It was far more costly than LTCM: The BIS researchers suggest the problem started with hedge funds taking on too much leverage to bet on what should have been simple market discrepancies. This is exactly what happened at LTCM: taking a long position in one security and a short position in another and then leveraging it up many times.</em>\r\n<em>The problem arises with feedback loops. In an orderly market, sales tend to beget buys by others, who see that a price has fallen too far. But in extreme conditions such as in early March, sales force funds to deal with redemptions and lead to further sales. As the BIS researchers put it: One example is when an investor has borrowed money to purchase assets. When the asset price falls and threatens the investor’s solvency, the lender will call in the loan, forcing the investor to sell. In this way, a price decline can lead to further sales, not purchases. Without dealers who can absorb sales and stabilise prices, a feedback loop may develop where price declines beget more sales, leading to further price declines.</em>\r\n<em>As people grasped how severe the Covid-19 shock to the economy would be, this appears to have been exactly what happened. One “tell” of this is the gap between yields on Treasuries (which take up room on an investor’s balance sheet), and equivalent swaps (which don’t). The widening of this gap in mid-March showed that investors were desperate not to use up space on their balance sheet:</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, funds had sharply increased the leverage they had taken on. This was decreasing slightly by the end of 2019, but the BIS shows that leverage had risen at a startling rate through 2018 and early 2019 (and appeared unaffected by the major market breaks in February and December of 2018): So a lot of hedge funds were caught with over-leveraged positions that turned bad.  (This happened to LTCM.) This became more of a systemic incident because of another problem, with the supply of bonds. The number of primary dealers in the system has reduced since the last crisis, largely as an unintended consequence of post-crisis re-regulation. But supply of new bonds from the Treasury has been heavy for the last two years. Following the tax cut at the end of 2017, the government has a much bigger deficit to finance, while the Fed was for much of that period adding to the number of bonds in the system as it reduced its balance sheet. That left primary dealers with far more bonds on their hands than they wanted, and therefore more reluctance to step in as buyers of last resort.</em>\r\n<em>…So what should happen now? A lot of the BIS recommendations sound similar to proposals for reform that followed the last crisis, so it is depressing they haven’t been made. Market monitoring, the authors say, should look beyond the present and ask “what-if” questions. If stress tests are to be effective, they must look at the possibility for negative feedback loops and forced sales “especially in tranquil periods when leverage is building up”. In other words, regulators still hadn’t learned the lessons of Hyman Minsky, also very much in vogue and well aired at crisis time, that stability tends to create instability.”</em>', 'Hedge-Fund Geniuses Failed Again. When Will We Learn?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3124-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:05:11', '2020-04-13 09:05:11', '', 3124, 'https://marcellus.in/3124-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3126, 1, '2020-04-12 09:16:34', '2020-04-12 09:16:34', 'The headline of this article could well be a common cry for help from several industries but the restaurant industry is one which could use this even without the lockdown inflicted woes. In a candid interview with the Outlook Business, Riyaaz Amlani, CEO of Impressario Handmade restaurants which runs chains like Social, Smoke House Deli, etc bears the industry\'s P&amp;L and its wafer thin margins and the consequent vulnerability it brings in situations like the one we are currently.\r\n<em>“What are the challenges the restaurant owners face?: First, rents across Indian cities are pretty high. For instance, the rental cost in Mayfair or Times Square is comparable with that of Khan Market in Delhi or Linking Road in Mumbai. While you are paying as much as a restaurateur in a developed market would, you are pricing your products differently. The purchasing power here is only about one-third of what it is in those cities. Moreover, we expect great service for that price. We expect someone to open our door, someone to park our car, someone to regularly top up our half-filled glasses and someone to take away the ashtray that has just one cigarette butt. For that, the restaurant has to employ a lot more people than they do in the West.</em>\r\n<em>….[About the ease of doing business or lack thereof] To run a restaurant, we need about 36 different licences that have to be renewed annually. Virtually, we are spending every day dealing with some or the other government organisation, instead of focusing on our business. Some of these laws are archaic. So, it gets very difficult to operate a business within the parameters that the government wants us to operate in.</em>\r\n<em>…[Cost structure] It is subjective to how well a business is doing. Ideally, the rough cost of occupancy or real estate should be around 16-17% of the total; goods should be near 35%; labour at around 18%; and utilities and other operating expenses at 22%. So, a restaurant that is doing really well, which would be the top 10% companies, could hope to report 18% Ebitda at the store level. The next batch of restaurants, doing ‘well’, would see single-digit Ebitda. To put it simply, while gross margin is pretty high, net margin is usually very low. For example, if you own a 1,000 sq ft restaurant in a city such as Mumbai, the cost of occupancy would be 400,000-500,000 per month. Thus, you would have to generate a business of about 2 million just to break even; otherwise you are losing money, which is the case for most restaurants. On the other hand, it is difficult to estimate the profit and loss for the unorganised sector since the data is not abundant. Even when it comes to a restaurant-owner owning the property, the cost structure differs.”</em>\r\nRiyaaz alludes to the non-monetary motives of restaurateurs as well…. “<em>A lot of people dream of owning a restaurant”.</em> It is this sort of an intangible return on investment that people derive out of their passion for running their dream restaurant whether it makes any money or not, that pulls the tangible return on capital down for the industry in general.', 'If The Government Does Not Step In With Clear Incentives, The Industry Will Collapse', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'if-the-government-does-not-step-in-with-clear-incentives-the-industry-will-collapse', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:22:01', '2020-04-13 09:22:01', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3126', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3127, 1, '2020-04-13 09:16:34', '2020-04-13 09:16:34', 'The headline of this article could well be a common cry for help from several industries but the restaurant industry is one which could use this even without the lockdown inflicted woes. In a candid interview with the Outlook Business, Riyaaz Amlani, CEO of Impressario Handmade restaurants which runs chains like Social, Smoke House Deli, etc bears the industry\'s P&amp;L and its wafer thin margins and the consequent vulnerability it brings in situations like the one we are currently.\r\n<em>“What are the challenges the restaurant owners face?: First, rents across Indian cities are pretty high. For instance, the rental cost in Mayfair or Times Square is comparable with that of Khan Market in Delhi or Linking Road in Mumbai. While you are paying as much as a restaurateur in a developed market would, you are pricing your products differently. The purchasing power here is only about one-third of what it is in those cities. Moreover, we expect great service for that price. We expect someone to open our door, someone to park our car, someone to regularly top up our half-filled glasses and someone to take away the ashtray that has just one cigarette butt. For that, the restaurant has to employ a lot more people than they do in the West.</em>\r\n<em>….[About the ease of doing business or lack thereof] To run a restaurant, we need about 36 different licences that have to be renewed annually. Virtually, we are spending every day dealing with some or the other government organisation, instead of focusing on our business. Some of these laws are archaic. So, it gets very difficult to operate a business within the parameters that the government wants us to operate in.</em>\r\n<em>…[Cost structure] It is subjective to how well a business is doing. Ideally, the rough cost of occupancy or real estate should be around 16-17% of the total; goods should be near 35%; labour at around 18%; and utilities and other operating expenses at 22%. So, a restaurant that is doing really well, which would be the top 10% companies, could hope to report 18% Ebitda at the store level. The next batch of restaurants, doing ‘well’, would see single-digit Ebitda. To put it simply, while gross margin is pretty high, net margin is usually very low. For example, if you own a 1,000 sq ft restaurant in a city such as Mumbai, the cost of occupancy would be 400,000-500,000 per month. Thus, you would have to generate a business of about 2 million just to break even; otherwise you are losing money, which is the case for most restaurants. On the other hand, it is difficult to estimate the profit and loss for the unorganised sector since the data is not abundant. Even when it comes to a restaurant-owner owning the property, the cost structure differs.”</em>\r\nRiyaaz alludes to the non-monetary motives of restaurateurs as well…. “<em>A lot of people dream of owning a restaurant”.</em> It is this sort of an intangible return on investment that people derive out of their passion for running their dream restaurant whether it makes any money or not, that pulls the tangible return on capital down for the industry in general.', 'If The Government Does Not Step In With Clear Incentives, The Industry Will Collapse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3126-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:16:34', '2020-04-13 09:16:34', '', 3126, 'https://marcellus.in/3126-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3129, 1, '2020-04-12 09:18:33', '2020-04-12 09:18:33', 'Industries which require employees to be physically present in the premises and hence can’t implement an effective Work From Home policy may see an accelerated adoption of automation. Replacing a human being, a natural host for the virus, with a robot provides a simplistic solution to breaking the chain. Businesses might find the robot, which neither gets infected nor transmits (at least not host the virus),  a natural replacement for workers involved in repetitive tasks. Something that may have eventually happened may just have got a Covid boost.\r\n<em>“The recycling industry was already struggling before the pandemic. Now, an increasing number of cities are suspending recycling services, partly out of fear that workers might contract the coronavirus from one another while sorting through used water bottles, food containers and boxes.</em>\r\n<em>One solution: Let robots do the job.</em>\r\n<em>Since the coronavirus took hold in the United States last month, AMP Robotics has seen a “significant” increase in orders for its robots that use artificial intelligence to sift through recycled material, weeding out trash.</em>\r\n<em>…The grocery industry is leaning more on automation to free up employees to deal with the crush of demand during the pandemic.</em>\r\n<em>Brain Corp, a San Diego company that makes software used in automated floor cleaners, said retailers were using the cleaners 13 percent more than they were just two months ago. The “autonomous floor care robots” are doing about 8,000 hours of daily work “that otherwise would have been done by an essential worker,” the company said.</em>\r\n<em>At supermarkets like Giant Eagle, robots are freeing up employees who previously spent time taking inventory to focus on disinfecting and sanitizing surfaces and processing deliveries to keep shelves stocked.</em>\r\n<em>Retailers insist the robots are augmenting the work of employees, not replacing them. But as the panic buying ebbs and sales decline in the recession that is expected to follow, companies that reassigned workers during the crisis may no longer have a need for them.</em>\r\n<em>The role of a cashier is also changing. For many years, retailers have provided self-checkout kiosks. But those machines often require intervention by workers to help shoppers navigate the often fickle and frustrating technology.”</em>', 'Robots Welcome to Take Over, as Pandemic Accelerates Automation', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'robots-welcome-to-take-over-as-pandemic-accelerates-automation', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:21:11', '2020-04-13 09:21:11', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3129', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3130, 1, '2020-04-13 09:21:11', '2020-04-13 09:21:11', 'Industries which require employees to be physically present in the premises and hence can’t implement an effective Work From Home policy may see an accelerated adoption of automation. Replacing a human being, a natural host for the virus, with a robot provides a simplistic solution to breaking the chain. Businesses might find the robot, which neither gets infected nor transmits (at least not host the virus),  a natural replacement for workers involved in repetitive tasks. Something that may have eventually happened may just have got a Covid boost.\r\n<em>“The recycling industry was already struggling before the pandemic. Now, an increasing number of cities are suspending recycling services, partly out of fear that workers might contract the coronavirus from one another while sorting through used water bottles, food containers and boxes.</em>\r\n<em>One solution: Let robots do the job.</em>\r\n<em>Since the coronavirus took hold in the United States last month, AMP Robotics has seen a “significant” increase in orders for its robots that use artificial intelligence to sift through recycled material, weeding out trash.</em>\r\n<em>…The grocery industry is leaning more on automation to free up employees to deal with the crush of demand during the pandemic.</em>\r\n<em>Brain Corp, a San Diego company that makes software used in automated floor cleaners, said retailers were using the cleaners 13 percent more than they were just two months ago. The “autonomous floor care robots” are doing about 8,000 hours of daily work “that otherwise would have been done by an essential worker,” the company said.</em>\r\n<em>At supermarkets like Giant Eagle, robots are freeing up employees who previously spent time taking inventory to focus on disinfecting and sanitizing surfaces and processing deliveries to keep shelves stocked.</em>\r\n<em>Retailers insist the robots are augmenting the work of employees, not replacing them. But as the panic buying ebbs and sales decline in the recession that is expected to follow, companies that reassigned workers during the crisis may no longer have a need for them.</em>\r\n<em>The role of a cashier is also changing. For many years, retailers have provided self-checkout kiosks. But those machines often require intervention by workers to help shoppers navigate the often fickle and frustrating technology.”</em>', 'Robots Welcome to Take Over, as Pandemic Accelerates Automation', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3129-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:21:11', '2020-04-13 09:21:11', '', 3129, 'https://marcellus.in/3129-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3131, 1, '2020-04-12 09:22:33', '2020-04-12 09:22:33', 'Contact tracing-testing-isolation has been a strategy several governments have adopted to control the Covid situation to a large extent. However, much of contact tracing techniques involve using data sources which potentially infringe on privacy laws. Whilst these can be justified in the current situation, many fear that these can be legitimised in the post Covid world. Why, apparently, as this article suggests, Facebook and Google which have been under attack for data privacy infringements have now been called upon by the CDC to collect data that can help forecast build up of the Covid infection pyramid.\r\n<em>\"When it comes to predicting the spread of an infectious disease, it’s crucial to understand what Ryan Tibshirani, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, calls the “the pyramid of severity.” The bottom of the pyramid is asymptomatic carriers (those who have the infection but feel fine); the next level is symptomatic carriers (those who are feeling ill); then come hospitalizations, critical hospitalizations, and finally deaths.</em>\r\n<em>Every level of the pyramid has a clear relationship to the next: “For example, sadly, it’s pretty predictable how many people will die once you know how many people are under critical care,” says Tibshirani, who is part of CMU’s Delphi research group, one of the best flu-forecasting teams in the US. The goal, therefore, is to have a clear measure of the lower levels of the pyramid, as the foundation for forecasting the higher ones.</em>\r\n<em>But in the US, building such a model is a Herculean task. A lack of testing makes it impossible to assess the number of asymptomatic carriers. The results also don’t accurately reflect how many symptomatic carriers there are. Different counties have different testing requirements—some choosing only to test patients who require hospitalization. Test results also often take upwards of a week to return.</em>\r\n<em>The remaining option is to measure symptomatic carriers through a large-scale, self-reported survey. But such an initiative won’t work unless it covers a big enough cross section of the entire population. Now the Delphi group, which has been working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help it coordinate the national pandemic response, has turned to the largest platforms in the US: Facebook and Google.</em>\r\n<em>In a new partnership with Delphi, both tech giants have agreed to help gather data from those who voluntarily choose to report whether they’re experiencing covid-like symptoms. Facebook will target a fraction of their US users with a CMU-run survey, while Google has thus far been using its Opinion Rewards app, which lets users respond to questions for app store credit. The hope is this new information will allow the lab to produce county-by-county projections that will help policymakers allocate resources more effectively.</em>\r\n<em>Neither company will ever actually see the survey results; they’re merely pointing users to the questions administered and processed by the lab. The lab will also never share any of the raw data back to either company. Still, the agreements represent a major deviation from typical data-sharing practices, which could raise privacy concerns. “If this wasn\'t a pandemic, I don’t know that companies would want to take the risk of being associated with or asking directly for such a personal piece of information as health,” Tibshirani says.</em>\r\n<em>Without such cooperation, the researchers would’ve been hard pressed to find the data anywhere else. Several other apps allow users to self-report symptoms, including a popular one in the UK known as the Covid Symptom Tracker that has been downloaded over 1.5 million times. But none of them offer the same systematic and expansive coverage as a Facebook or Google-administered survey, says Tibshirani. He hopes the project will collect millions of responses each week.</em>\r\n<em>Tibshirani doesn’t know whether the collaborations with Facebook and Google will last once the pandemic is over. Without the urgency and pressure of the global crisis, he isn’t sure the platforms or their users will still be willing to give up such intimate health information. But he and the rest of the lab are grateful for what they are getting now. “I think that this has the potential for enormous impact,” he says.”</em>', 'How Facebook and Google are helping the CDC forecast coronavirus', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-facebook-and-google-are-helping-the-cdc-forecast-coronavirus', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:38:42', '2020-04-13 09:38:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3131', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3132, 1, '2020-04-13 09:36:35', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'How Facebook and Google are helping the CDC forecast coronavirus', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:36:35', '2020-04-13 09:36:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3132', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3133, 1, '2020-04-13 09:38:42', '2020-04-13 09:38:42', 'Contact tracing-testing-isolation has been a strategy several governments have adopted to control the Covid situation to a large extent. However, much of contact tracing techniques involve using data sources which potentially infringe on privacy laws. Whilst these can be justified in the current situation, many fear that these can be legitimised in the post Covid world. Why, apparently, as this article suggests, Facebook and Google which have been under attack for data privacy infringements have now been called upon by the CDC to collect data that can help forecast build up of the Covid infection pyramid.\r\n<em>\"When it comes to predicting the spread of an infectious disease, it’s crucial to understand what Ryan Tibshirani, an associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University, calls the “the pyramid of severity.” The bottom of the pyramid is asymptomatic carriers (those who have the infection but feel fine); the next level is symptomatic carriers (those who are feeling ill); then come hospitalizations, critical hospitalizations, and finally deaths.</em>\r\n<em>Every level of the pyramid has a clear relationship to the next: “For example, sadly, it’s pretty predictable how many people will die once you know how many people are under critical care,” says Tibshirani, who is part of CMU’s Delphi research group, one of the best flu-forecasting teams in the US. The goal, therefore, is to have a clear measure of the lower levels of the pyramid, as the foundation for forecasting the higher ones.</em>\r\n<em>But in the US, building such a model is a Herculean task. A lack of testing makes it impossible to assess the number of asymptomatic carriers. The results also don’t accurately reflect how many symptomatic carriers there are. Different counties have different testing requirements—some choosing only to test patients who require hospitalization. Test results also often take upwards of a week to return.</em>\r\n<em>The remaining option is to measure symptomatic carriers through a large-scale, self-reported survey. But such an initiative won’t work unless it covers a big enough cross section of the entire population. Now the Delphi group, which has been working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help it coordinate the national pandemic response, has turned to the largest platforms in the US: Facebook and Google.</em>\r\n<em>In a new partnership with Delphi, both tech giants have agreed to help gather data from those who voluntarily choose to report whether they’re experiencing covid-like symptoms. Facebook will target a fraction of their US users with a CMU-run survey, while Google has thus far been using its Opinion Rewards app, which lets users respond to questions for app store credit. The hope is this new information will allow the lab to produce county-by-county projections that will help policymakers allocate resources more effectively.</em>\r\n<em>Neither company will ever actually see the survey results; they’re merely pointing users to the questions administered and processed by the lab. The lab will also never share any of the raw data back to either company. Still, the agreements represent a major deviation from typical data-sharing practices, which could raise privacy concerns. “If this wasn\'t a pandemic, I don’t know that companies would want to take the risk of being associated with or asking directly for such a personal piece of information as health,” Tibshirani says.</em>\r\n<em>Without such cooperation, the researchers would’ve been hard pressed to find the data anywhere else. Several other apps allow users to self-report symptoms, including a popular one in the UK known as the Covid Symptom Tracker that has been downloaded over 1.5 million times. But none of them offer the same systematic and expansive coverage as a Facebook or Google-administered survey, says Tibshirani. He hopes the project will collect millions of responses each week.</em>\r\n<em>Tibshirani doesn’t know whether the collaborations with Facebook and Google will last once the pandemic is over. Without the urgency and pressure of the global crisis, he isn’t sure the platforms or their users will still be willing to give up such intimate health information. But he and the rest of the lab are grateful for what they are getting now. “I think that this has the potential for enormous impact,” he says.”</em>', 'How Facebook and Google are helping the CDC forecast coronavirus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3131-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:38:42', '2020-04-13 09:38:42', '', 3131, 'https://marcellus.in/3131-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3134, 1, '2020-04-13 09:47:32', '2020-04-13 09:47:32', 'Brilliant piece by John Authers, the veteran markets commentator formerly with the FT. John brings back memories of LTCM, the hedge fund which went belly up in the late nineties and how nothing really has changed since then. The S&amp;P500 lost a staggering 33% in a little over 20 trading days and then back to technical bull market territory with a 25% gain in 13 trading days flat in what is clearly a never seen before steep fall and a sharp rise. Whilst the emergence of passive funds and algo trading have been blamed for the same, John highlights the role of the now too familiar villain that is leverage for this sort of amplified market movements with a special focus on the bond markets where the US treasury yield has seen unprecedented levels. From LTCM to the sub-prime mortgage crisis to Covid, the role of leverage in asset markets has only risen as regulators have only used lowering of interest rates followed by quantitative easing to douse these crises, which in turn fuelled another leverage driven asset rally only to be followed by another crisis. And this time is no different as the Fed along with other G-7 central banks has thrown another bout of QE adding up to $1.7trn in March alone putting to shame the previous QE high of a paltry $275bn in April 2009.\r\n<em>“A few weeks ago, I recommended When Genius Failed, Roger Lowenstein’s masterly narrative of the meltdown and rescue of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, as one of five books to read in self- isolation. It is a great read, and I suggested it because it covers a crisis that was in many ways a rehearsal for the all-in disaster that would follow 10 years later. The interest rate cuts and coordinated bailout with which the Federal Reserve dealt with LTCM might even be seen as the crucial acts in stoking the moral hazard and over-confidence that gave us 2008.</em>\r\n<em>I must confess that I didn’t recommend it as a description of what was happening currently in the bond market. But it turns out that genius failed again. The Bank for International Settlements has put out a fascinating report on events last month. These are the key takeaways: For a reminder, this is what happened to 10-year Treasury bonds during  March: The 1% barrier had never been breached before, but once 10-year yields fell through that level, they were soon below 0.5%....Obviously, the market suffered some kind of an accident; there was no explanation for moves like this in the macro-economy.</em>\r\n<em>Dealing with that accident didn’t come cheap. The bond market has returned to (relative) calm this month, but only after the Fed threw some $2 trillion at the problem, with a massive program of asset purchases that in scale equaled the first wave of quantitative easing after the Lehman bankruptcy.</em>\r\n<em>It was far more costly than LTCM: The BIS researchers suggest the problem started with hedge funds taking on too much leverage to bet on what should have been simple market discrepancies. This is exactly what happened at LTCM: taking a long position in one security and a short position in another and then leveraging it up many times.</em>\r\n<em>The problem arises with feedback loops. In an orderly market, sales tend to beget buys by others, who see that a price has fallen too far. But in extreme conditions such as in early March, sales force funds to deal with redemptions and lead to further sales. As the BIS researchers put it: One example is when an investor has borrowed money to purchase assets. When the asset price falls and threatens the investor’s solvency, the lender will call in the loan, forcing the investor to sell. In this way, a price decline can lead to further sales, not purchases. Without dealers who can absorb sales and stabilise prices, a feedback loop may develop where price declines beget more sales, leading to further price declines.</em>\r\n<em>As people grasped how severe the Covid-19 shock to the economy would be, this appears to have been exactly what happened. One “tell” of this is the gap between yields on Treasuries (which take up room on an investor’s balance sheet), and equivalent swaps (which don’t). The widening of this gap in mid-March showed that investors were desperate not to use up space on their balance sheet:</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, funds had sharply increased the leverage they had taken on. This was decreasing slightly by the end of 2019, but the BIS shows that leverage had risen at a startling rate through 2018 and early 2019 (and appeared unaffected by the major market breaks in February and December of 2018): So a lot of hedge funds were caught with over-leveraged positions that turned bad.  (This happened to LTCM.) This became more of a systemic incident because of another problem, with the supply of bonds. The number of primary dealers in the system has reduced since the last crisis, largely as an unintended consequence of post-crisis re-regulation. But supply of new bonds from the Treasury has been heavy for the last two years. Following the tax cut at the end of 2017, the government has a much bigger deficit to finance, while the Fed was for much of that period adding to the number of bonds in the system as it reduced its balance sheet. That left primary dealers with far more bonds on their hands than they wanted, and therefore more reluctance to step in as buyers of last resort.</em>\r\n<em>…So what should happen now? A lot of the BIS recommendations sound similar to proposals for reform that followed the last crisis, so it is depressing they haven’t been made. Market monitoring, the authors say, should look beyond the present and ask “what-if” questions. If stress tests are to be effective, they must look at the possibility for negative feedback loops and forced sales “especially in tranquil periods when leverage is building up”. In other words, regulators still hadn’t learned the lessons of Hyman Minsky, also very much in vogue and well aired at crisis time, that stability tends to create instability.”</em>', 'Hedge-Fund Geniuses Failed Again. When Will We Learn?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3124-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:47:32', '2020-04-13 09:47:32', '', 3124, 'https://marcellus.in/3124-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3135, 1, '2020-04-13 09:50:20', '2020-04-13 09:50:20', 'This blog from Klement renders yeoman service for HNWs by refuting the notion that HNWs should put all their eggs in one basket and then watch that basket really closely. The blog uses a clever study conducted by an Indian academic to attack the latter part of the proposition given in the previous sentence: <em>“Didn’t Andrew Carnegie say the way to become rich is to put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket? However, the evidence is mounting that your performance becomes worse, the more you watch that basket.</em>\r\n<em>Ellapulli Vasudevan looked at the portfolios of 308,000 Finnish investors between 1995 and 2014 as well as 76,000 US investors between 1991 and 1996. He found that many investors tended to buy and sell the same stock over and over again. About 40% of investors sold all of their holdings in a stock just to buy it again at a later time. And 10% of investors engaged in at least 6 of such roundtrips….As I have written before, these investors are more likely to sell their stocks when they are sitting on a gain than when they are sitting on a loss, but what is novel about Vasudevan’s research is that he shows what happens once investors have sold the stock.</em>\r\n<em>It is most likely for investors to sell a stock when they have made a profit but experienced some recent setbacks in the stock. They have made good experiences but held the stock too long, so when they buy the stock back they tend to watch the basket of eggs even more closely. This way, it seems, they are trying to avoid the lost return from holding the stock for too long. But what they effectively do is teach themselves to become short-term traders. Every time they buy the same stock again, the average holding period declines by about 11%.”</em>\r\nSo why do investors do this? Why do their holding period for the same stock progressively fall every time they buy it again? <em>“Unfortunately, by watching their stocks more closely, they are more likely to react to short-term noise. As they try to anticipate the next correction, the returns of their stocks become smaller and smaller. The chart below shows the annualised alpha relative to the market for every roundtrip. Because every roundtrip becomes shorter and shorter, one would naturally expect the alpha to become smaller, but the annualisation guarantees that this effect is compensated for. And yet, every time they buy the same stock again, the performance relative to the market declines.”</em>\r\nThe blog then goes on to show when investors stop behaving this – when they stop making money from making these round trips.', 'The more you know a stock the worse your performance gets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3122-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-13 09:50:20', '2020-04-13 09:50:20', '', 3122, 'https://marcellus.in/3122-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3136, 1, '2020-04-14 09:28:00', '2020-04-14 09:28:00', '<strong>With most investors spending majority of their time reading and thinking about Coronavirus, it would be fair to say that their minds are now firmly “anchored” by the crisis. As Kahneman &amp; Tversky showed 40 years ago, anchoring impacts our ability to think rationally. 300 years ago, Thomas Bayes created a pathbreaking theorem which can be used to rationally think about the risks around Covid-19. Applying Bayes’ Theorem shows that the risk of us dying from road accidents or from air pollution in an Indian city is at least FOUR TIMES HIGHER than the risk of us dying from Covid. Hence a rational investor like us cannot help being massively bullish on high quality Indian stocks.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir?” – </em><strong><i>John Maynard Keynes</i></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Wall to wall Covid coverage anchors us</strong>\r\nOver the last month, the global media has gone into overdrive to give all of us nonstop coverage of the Covid–19 crisis. In addition, on social media, millions of self-proclaimed Corona gurus have emerged to spell out their visions of impending doom. In such circumstances, it is but natural that most people have got “anchored” to the belief that it is the end of the world as we know it.\r\n\r\nThe first psychologists to show us how anchoring works were the fathers of behavioural science, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.  40 years ago, they showed us how anchoring results in people taking a decision based on an initial view.\r\n\r\nIn one of their experiments they asked a group of high school students to give the product of the following equation within 5 seconds: 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1. And to another group of high school students, they gave the following equation: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8. People tend to extrapolate the answers using only the first piece of information that they have and hence the median answer of the first group was 2,250 and for the second group it was 512. However, the correct answer to the equation is 40,320. (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=715349325f&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D715349325f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGO_5rZTFHVYC0m0ATv2NZmMbW_Vw\">Link</a> - pg, 1128, \"Adjustment and Anchoring\")\r\n\r\nTaking this simple example of anchoring and applying it to the current scenario, it appears to us that most people are overestimating the risk posed to them (and to their livelihoods and to their portfolios) by Covid-19. This overestimation is being fuelled further by tendency of people to resort to “confirmation bias” where people will give undue weightage to information that confirms their initial view.\r\n\r\n<strong>Bayes’ Theorem to the rescue</strong>\r\nGiven the paucity of data available on Covid-19, how does one reach a realistic assessment of risk? We at Marcellus have taken a shot at it with the help of Bayes’ Theorem, which describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.\r\n\r\nIn simple terms, Bayes’ Theorem helps in calculating the probability of certain event (say, Event A) given that another event (say, Event B) has already happened. The formula is:\r\n\r\n<img class=\"size-full wp-image-3137 aligncenter\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/marcellus-covid.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"726\" height=\"501\" />\r\n\r\n<em><b>Assumptions:</b></em>\r\n<strong>*</strong>Globally, the number of confirmed cases has reached 2 million and it is now showing signs of peaking (scroll down the page on this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2e17880ba5&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2e17880ba5%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1lRqQV_TZOiT1hC87n-Mz6llVvw\">link</a> and you will see the number of new Covid cases flat lining). However, it could well be that the number of new cases is levelling out because large parts of the world are under a lockdown and hence in our model, we have assumed 5x that number 10 million positive cases in India alone. We hope you will agree that this is an extremely conservative assumption.\r\n<strong>#</strong>While it is still unclear about the distribution between symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, we have assumed that the number of asymptomatic cases is equal to symptomatic cases. We hope you will agree that this too is an extremely conservative assumption.\r\n<strong>^</strong>The total number of tests done so far in India is around 200,000 and the number of people tested positive for Covid in India is around 10,000. Hence the ratio of cases/tests is around 5% i.e. India seems to have one of the lowest Covid infection rates in the world (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=f4f35fe749&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Df4f35fe749%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHHryvneq1s-zL4dWOnFxnUcj6chQ\">Link</a>).  Erring on the side of caution, we have assumed the infection rate to be 5% in our model. Hence the number of people having symptoms, given that the number of symptomatic cases is assumed to be 5m, is around 100m. [This number is likely to be an extremely conservative estimate because it feeds off the the two preceding assumptions which are extremely conservative.]\r\n<em>Note: Numbers are updated as of 14th April, 2020.</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3151 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Blog-.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"234\" />\r\n<h2><strong>What </strong><strong>the table above is saying is:</strong></h2>\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>Even if one has symptoms of cough &amp; cold, the chances of having Covid-19 in India is only 5% [first row of the table shown above].</li>\r\n 	<li>Without symptoms (of cough &amp; cold) the chances of being infected by Covid-19 in India falls to 0.42% [second row of the table].</li>\r\n 	<li>Even if you do have symptoms of cough &amp; cold, the chances of <strong>NOT</strong> having Covid-19 are 95% [third row of the table shown above; this is why you have to marvel at the power of Bayes’ Theorem].</li>\r\n 	<li>The chances of you not having Covid-19 and not having symptoms are very high at 99.58% [fourth row of the table shown above].</li>\r\n 	<li>Finally, the probability of an Indian citizen having Covid-19 is 0.77% [final row of the table shown above].</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Even if one tests positive for Covid-19, the probability of a fatality is around 6% worldwide, while for India, fatality rate appears to be around 3% [Death rate = No. of deaths/no. of total cases, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=97cfccfb7c&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D97cfccfb7c%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFy3fgPo6bWuYUlrxeKmFY-4G-Euw\">Link</a>). This implies that under these extremely conservative (some will say cynical) assumptions made by us, India could see 300,000 Covid fatalities (10 million from the table above * 3%). To put this number of fatalities into perspective:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>So far, globally, 120,000 people have lost their lives to Covid (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e9bd20b504&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De9bd20b504%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFZxFvJVMHTDCbgENKb1ia_DS7BRw\">Link</a>). So India alone suffering 300,000 fatalities sounds extreme.</li>\r\n 	<li>In 2018, there were around 150,000 deaths in India due to road accidents. Furthermore, the number of deaths due to air pollution in India is around 1,200,000 a year. Useful sources of getting these numbers are given - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ba248cd586&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dba248cd586%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE0uvZVxYRZA9DBdAK106f7Kh-Jrw\">deaths due to road accidents</a>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=02dd1cf212&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D02dd1cf212%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2CwP2PB3Fn_PovHMI8WJa_e4Ueg\">deaths due to air pollution</a></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nFor those of us who live in Indian cities, you and I are at far greater risk of dying from a road accident or from air pollution in India than we are from Covid-19. In fact, the risk of us dying from road accidents or from air pollution in an Indian city is at<strong> LEAST</strong> <strong>FOUR TIMES HIGHER</strong> than the risk of us dying from Covid (and we are almost certainly overestimating the Covid related risks we face in India in the maths shown above).  Of course, that shouldn’t stop us from scaring ourselves silly about Covid-19. However, the stock market rewards those who think about risks &amp; rewards rationally, people like John Maynard Keynes, who other than being a pathbreaking economist was also a very good investor.</p>\r\nThe data that is emerging from India is telling us that even amongst the 200,000 Indians who have been tested so far, the Covid-19 infection risks are amongst the lowest in the world. The data is also showing that the number of new Covid cases is already levelling out in India. We, as rational investors, believe therefore that to extrapolate the current lockdown in India and forecast a doom-laden future would be imprudent. In three separate notes recently, we have explained our view on how we are investing through the crisis:\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>In our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c0ba2d070d&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc0ba2d070d%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFh17ws8mkycXiX5_-kneYhebdf3g\">22<sup>nd</sup> March</a> blog we said that <em>“</em><strong><em>Four times in the last 40 years, a US recession alongside falling US bond yields and falling oil prices has been followed by a strong economic recovery in India. In fact, India has NEVER witnessed an economic recovery without a US recession preceding it! Now, all three conditions for an Indian economic recovery – a US recession, smashed crude prices and falling US Government bond yields are – in place. Our portfolios – CCP and LCP – are ideally designed to capitalise on such an economic recovery.”</em></strong></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>In our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c087e1c818&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc087e1c818%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFuqmKn6G60bLUmbkQqmKT-6fCrlg\">6<sup>th</sup> April</a> Consistent Compounders newsletter we said that <em><strong>“In FY20, Marcellus’ CCP PMS has delivered healthy absolute returns (+7.6% vs -25.0% for Nifty50 Total Return Index) alongside resilience during the recent stock market correction (since 1st Jan 2020: -12.9% for Marcellus CCP vs -29.1% for Nifty50 TRI). Beyond the period of business disruption from the ongoing lockdown, fundamentals of Marcellus’ CCP companies are likely to remain exceptionally strong due to: a) insignificant exposure to global demand and global supply chains; b) high exposure to small ticket daily essential products and services; and c) the opportunity to accelerate market share gains given the challenges faced by weaker/smaller competitors. Hence, the share price recovery after every such crisis happens sooner and sharper for CCP companies (vs the broader market) and timing entry / exits in such a portfolio tends to be a futile exercise.”</strong></em></li>\r\n 	<li>In our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3a8254f00f&amp;e=e931651acc\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3a8254f00f%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEsGQgkU2ubUzliE6YBXxyFv1vGJA\">7<sup>th</sup> April</a> Little Champs newsletter we said that <em><strong>“We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a potential global recession. In fact, Little Champs are likely to emerge relatively stronger out of the situation as they can afford to invest in business growth (product/process innovation, market expansion) through the crisis but most of their peers cannot. Hence, we expect the Little Champs portfolio to demonstrate resilience in the market downturn (portfolio down 15% since January 2020 vs BSE Smallcap’s 30%) as well as to recover faster as the uncertainty fades.”</strong></em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><em>Harsh Shah and Saurabh Mukherjea are Analyst and CIO respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers.</em></p>\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ef6dd72679&amp;e=e931651acc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Def6dd72679%26e%3De931651acc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586942199243000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHpu_Z8SnLVj3IT6DQzSNyK_7KDCg\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form.', 'Reverend Thomas Bayes and a Big Buy Call on India', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'reverend-thomas-bayes-and-a-big-buy-call-on-india', '', '', '2020-04-16 11:04:40', '2020-04-16 11:04:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3136', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(3284, 1, '2020-05-03 03:37:46', '2020-05-03 03:37:46', 'Every single day in Marcellus we tell our clients that at least 80% of Indian companies have suspect accounts. Further, as we have explained in this blog - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2463b8ccd1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2463b8ccd1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588735492387000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGxped7f7p07-mhHVnEYovzSyE0_Q\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />accounting-fraud-and-<wbr />liquidity-crunches-are-<wbr />bedfellows/</a> - in a crisis may of these companies find that their time is up. In the article, the Economist makes a similar point for the world at large: <em>“Booms help fraudsters paper over cracks in their accounts, from fictitious investment returns to exaggerated sales. Slowdowns rip the covering o!. As Baruch Lev, an accounting professor at New York University, puts it, “In good times everyone looks good, and the market punishes you harshly for not keeping up.” Many big book-cooking scandals of the past 20 years emerged in downturns. A decade before the crisis of 2007-09 the dotcom crash exposed accounting sins at Enron and WorldCom perpetrated in the go-go late 1990s. Both firms went bust soon after. As Warren Buffett, a revered investor, once put it: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.””</em>\r\nIn this context, it looks highly likely that the Corona driven liquidity crunch around the world will lead to more accounting frauds coming to light: <em>“Some dirty secrets are beginning to come out. Take Luckin Co!ee, which had expanded to take on Starbucks in China, attracting big-name investors like Blackrock and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund. On April 2nd the Nasdaq listed Chinese chain announced an ongoing internal probe amid allegations that its chief operating officer and other employees may have fabricated over 2bn yuan ($280m) in sales. On April 14<sup>th</sup> Citron Research, a short-seller, accused GSX, a Chinese online-tutoring firm listed in New York, of inflating last year’s sales. In a statement GSX denied the allegations and said Citron’s report was misleading and “full of subjective maliciousness”.”</em>\r\nIn fact there is good reason to believe that accounting blow-ups in the wake of Covid could be amongst the most spectacular ever: <em>“Non-GAAP adjustments have spread like wildfire through corporate accounts, making it harder to discern what numbers reflect a firm’s true financial position. The average number of non-GAAP measures used in filings by companies in the S&amp;P 500 index has increased from 2.5 to 7.5 in the past 20 years, according to PwC, a consultancy. In credit agreements analysed by Zion Research Group, the definition of EBITDA ranges from 75 words to over 2,200.”</em>', 'The economic crisis will expose a decade’s worth of corporate fraud', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-economic-crisis-will-expose-a-decades-worth-of-corporate-fraud', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:41:45', '2020-05-05 03:41:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3284', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(3187, 1, '2020-04-23 13:54:59', '2020-04-23 13:54:59', '&lt;div class=\"container\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"row\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"col-lg-12 col-md-12\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"home-contact-tabs contact-us mb-5\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"tab-content\" id=\"pills-tabContent\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"tab-pane fade show active\" id=\"pills-home\" role=\"tabpanel\" aria-labelledby=\"pills-home-tab\"&gt;\r\n&lt;?php echo do_shortcode( \'[contact-form-7 id=\"3184\" title=\"Contact As\"]\' ); ?&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"row\"&gt;\r\n&lt;div class=\"col-lg-12 col-md-12 mt-5 mb-5\"&gt;\r\n&lt;h3 class=\"text-uppercase text-center section-title\"&gt;Address&lt;/h3&gt;\r\n&lt;p class=\"text-center\"&gt;Marcellus Investment Managers &lt;br&gt;929, DBS Business Centre, Kanakia Wall Street&lt;br&gt;Andheri-Kurla Road, Andheri – East, Mumbai - 400 093 &lt;/p&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;\r\n&lt;/div&gt;', 'test connect us form', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3186-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-23 13:54:59', '2020-04-23 13:54:59', '', 3186, 'https://marcellus.in/3186-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3479, 1, '2020-06-08 18:54:50', '2020-06-08 18:54:50', '', 'LCP HUF', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-huf', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:54:50', '2020-06-08 18:54:50', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-HUF.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3480, 1, '2020-06-08 18:54:53', '2020-06-08 18:54:53', '', 'LCP Corporate', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-corporate', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:54:53', '2020-06-08 18:54:53', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-Corporate.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3481, 1, '2020-06-08 18:54:55', '2020-06-08 18:54:55', '', 'LCP LLP', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-llp', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:54:55', '2020-06-08 18:54:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-LLP.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
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(3484, 1, '2020-06-08 18:55:06', '2020-06-08 18:55:06', '', 'LCP Trust - Non Individual Trustee', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-trust-non-individual-trustee', '', '', '2020-06-08 18:55:06', '2020-06-08 18:55:06', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-Trust-Non-Individual-Trustee.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3204, 1, '2020-04-26 20:11:07', '2020-04-26 20:11:07', '', 'Kotak IND-NONIND Closure', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'kotak-ind-nonind-closure', '', '', '2020-04-26 20:11:07', '2020-04-26 20:11:07', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Kotak-IND-NONIND-Closure.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
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(3268, 1, '2020-04-30 04:41:01', '2020-04-30 04:41:01', '', 'KYC Update - Kotak', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'kyc-update-kotak', '', '', '2020-04-30 04:41:01', '2020-04-30 04:41:01', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/KYC-Update-Kotak.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3210, 1, '2020-04-26 20:27:37', '2020-04-26 20:27:37', '', 'Add Change Nominee - Kotak', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'add-change-nominee-kotak', '', '', '2020-04-26 20:27:37', '2020-04-26 20:27:37', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Add-Change-Nominee-Kotak.zip', 0, 'attachment', 'application/zip', 0),
(3275, 1, '2020-04-30 05:21:46', '2020-04-30 05:21:46', '', 'Distributor - Addendum for online acess', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'distributor-addendum-for-online-acess', '', '', '2020-04-30 05:21:46', '2020-04-30 05:21:46', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Distributor-Addendum-for-online-acess.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3273, 1, '2020-04-30 05:16:26', '2020-04-30 05:16:26', '', 'MARCELLUS FATCA - For Individual', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-fatca-for-individual', '', '', '2020-04-30 05:16:26', '2020-04-30 05:16:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/MARCELLUS-FATCA-For-Individual.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3216, 1, '2020-04-28 08:26:21', '2020-04-28 08:26:21', '', 'Sonicwall', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'sonicwall', '', '', '2020-04-28 08:26:21', '2020-04-28 08:26:21', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Sonicwall.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3217, 1, '2020-04-29 03:52:52', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'For anyone pursuing excellence in life or at work, Japan, its people and its society are an endless source of inspirational anecdotes. This BBC story reveals a side of Japan we had never heard about: very high stakes professional track cycling. It is called Keirin and it is a big deal in Japan: <em>“…in Japan, it\'s a £10bn industry, potentially lucrative for riders and fans alike as one of only four sports you can legally bet on. Its annual showpiece attracts more in wagers than is gambled over the entire British horse racing season.</em>\n<em>Keirin isn\'t just a sport in Japan. It goes deeper than that.”</em>\nKeirin cyclists have to go to a special school to train for many years: <em>“This is no ordinary school. This is keirin school, where just 10% of applicants are accepted. Only the very best get to come here.”</em>\nSir Chris Hoy, Britain’s six time Olympic gold winner, trained in such a school in Japan. He says <em>“\"It\'s a place of tradition which focuses on respect, self-control, and honesty, along with the knowledge necessary to be a professional keirin rider…It reflects Japanese culture…Everyone takes their job very seriously, they do it to the best of their ability and they do it the way they are told to do it.\"”</em>\nStructured like a monastery, keirin schools are where champions are trained both physically and mentally: <em>“Keirin school is part military academy, part training camp. The day starts at 6:30am with roll call and finishes at 10pm with lights out, for six days a week, 11 months of the year.</em>\n<em>In between, students have structured training and education sessions. Training could be on the bike, on foot or in the gym, while education sessions are both academic - studying tactics, theory and race rules in the classroom - and practical. Students also learn about bike mechanics in the workshop.</em>\n<em>Throw in meal times - students consume more than 1,000 calories at breakfast and 4,500 at dinner - cleaning responsibilities and extra exercise and there\'s very little time for anything else.</em>\n<em>Everyone wears the same uniform. There are televisions, but no mobile phones, no email access and certainly no social media. Students may call home once a week on a payphone.”</em>\nEven more interestingly, these schools allow a small number of elite foreign cyclists to come and train with them. Sir Chris Hoy was one of them.\nAnd then there is the business side of keirin: <em>“Established in 1948, keirin was created to boost income in Japan after the Second World War. More than 70 years on, there are 43 velodromes in the country and fans can watch keirin racing on 365 days of the year.</em>\n<em>\"In betting offices, cafes and bars, there are thousands of people watching each race,\" says Hoy.</em>\n<em>Top riders can earn more than £1m a year in prize money, with many continuing to compete into their 50s and 60s. Such is the scale of betting on racing that riders must abide by incredibly strict regulations.</em>\n<em>Riders must arrive at meets dressed smartly - and everyone must then surrender their mobile phone. No communication with the outside world is allowed over the entire event. Many take place over four days.</em>\n<em>Sometimes riders will race only once in those days. It will mark their only chance to see daylight, to get some fresh air. For the rest of the meeting, they are cooped up inside, hidden from the rest of the world.</em>\n<em>It\'s on the first day that riders declare their tactics. Before every race, riders know their opponents\' exact plans in advance - who is planning to attack when, and who has got a target on their back.</em>\n<em>It makes for an intense experience, particularly when, for the entire duration of the race meeting, they only have each other for company.</em>\n<em>They sleep in a dormitory, some with beds, others with mats on the floor. They eat alongside each other, bathe alongside each other, warm-up alongside each other…”</em>\nJust as interesting are the post-race rituals that riders are meant to engage in: <em>“Winners are expected to hand out water to their opponents as a way of expressing thanks for a good race, while riders frequently hand out presents to one another.</em>\n<em>\"Respect is such a big part,\" says Truman.</em>\n<em>\"I\'ve got a box full of presents, four or five pairs of gloves, tyres...”</em>\nWhen one understands how Japanese society works, how its focuses on respect, on perfection, on dedication, one understands the roots needed to build a great society and a great country.', 'Keirin School: Inside the strict and secret world of bicycle racing in Japan', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2020-04-29 03:52:52', '2020-04-29 03:52:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?p=3217', 0, 'post', '', 0),
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(3152, 1, '2020-04-16 12:07:44', '2020-04-16 12:07:44', '', 'Salil Desai', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'salil-desai-3', '', '', '2020-04-16 12:07:44', '2020-04-16 12:07:44', '', 599, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Salil-Desai.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3184, 1, '2020-04-23 13:41:19', '2020-04-23 13:41:19', '<div class=\"row\">\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n   [select* menu-596 class:form-control first_as_label \"Contact As\" \"Distributor\" \"Investor/Resident\" \"Investor/NRI\" \"Others\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12\">\r\n    [text* text-172 class:form-control placeholder \"Name\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n    [email* email-503 class:form-control placeholder \"Email\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-6\">\r\n    [tel* tel-800 class:form-control placeholder \"Phone number\"]\r\n</div>\r\n<div class=\"col-12 col-sm-12\">\r\n    [textarea your-message class:form-control placeholder\"Enter your message\"] \r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n[submit \"Submit\"]\n1\nInquiry for [menu-596]\n[email-503] <no-reply@marcellus.in>\nsales@marcellus.in\n<!DOCTYPE html>\r\n<html xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\">\r\n<head>\r\n    <meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\r\n    <title></title>\r\n</head>\r\n<body>\r\n    <table width=\"600px\" cellspacing=\"0\" align=\"center\" cellpadding=\"0\" border=\"0\" style=\"border:1px solid #ccc; background:#fff;\">\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#fff; border-bottom: solid 1px #ccc;\">\r\n                <a href=\"#\" title=\"\"><img src=\"http://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/logo.png\" title=\"\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"10\" vspace=\"10\" /></a>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"padding:25px 15px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:12px; color:#333;\">\r\n                <table width=\"100%\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"2\" cellpadding=\"3\" style=\"padding-left:10px; padding-right:10px;font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; color: #333; font-weight: standard;\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td height=\"39\" colspan=\"3\">\r\n                            <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">Dear Admin,</b> <br /> <b style=\"padding-left:10px;\">You have received the following enquiry from the website.</b> </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">Contact As</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[menu-596]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"name\">Name</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[text-172]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    \r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"email\">Email</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[email-503]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"Subject\">Contact Number</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[tel-800]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td width=\"1%\"></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"33%\"><strong>\r\n                        <label for=\"message\">Message</label>\r\n                        </strong></td>\r\n                        <td width=\"66%\">[your-message]</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td colspan=\"3\">&nbsp;</td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n        <tr>\r\n            <td style=\"background-color:#FFF; border-top:1px solid #ccc;\">\r\n                <table width=\"600\">\r\n                    <tr>\r\n                        <td style=\"text-align:left; padding:6px; font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size:11px; color:#333;\">\r\n                            Copyright 2018 Marcellus. All Rights Reserved.<br /><br />\r\n\r\n                        </td>\r\n                    </tr>\r\n                </table>\r\n            </td>\r\n        </tr>\r\n    </table>\r\n</body>\r\n</html>\n\n\n1\n\n\nMarcellus \"[your-subject]\"\nMarcellus <wordpress@marcellus.in>\n[your-email]\nMessage Body:\r\n[your-message]\r\n\r\n-- \r\nThis e-mail was sent from a contact form on Marcellus (https://marcellus.in)\nReply-To: rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com\n\n\n\nThank you for your message. It has been sent.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nOne or more fields have an error. Please check and try again.\nThere was an error trying to send your message. Please try again later.\nYou must accept the terms and conditions before sending your message.\nThe field is required.\nThe field is too long.\nThe field is too short.\nThe date format is incorrect.\nThe date is before the earliest one allowed.\nThe date is after the latest one allowed.\nThere was an unknown error uploading the file.\nYou are not allowed to upload files of this type.\nThe file is too big.\nThere was an error uploading the file.\nThe number format is invalid.\nThe number is smaller than the minimum allowed.\nThe number is larger than the maximum allowed.\nThe answer to the quiz is incorrect.\nYour entered code is incorrect.\nThe e-mail address entered is invalid.\nThe URL is invalid.\nThe telephone number is invalid.', 'Contact As', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'contact-as', '', '', '2020-04-28 04:45:25', '2020-04-28 04:45:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=wpcf7_contact_form&#038;p=3184', 0, 'wpcf7_contact_form', '', 0),
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(3159, 1, '2020-04-18 09:23:05', '2020-04-18 09:23:05', '', 'The Market Podcast | Saurabh Mukherjea gives 3 mantras for stock picking amid the COVID-19 pandemic', 'Making money could be hard for some but not for this fund manager which control over Rs 2,000 cr in asset under management (AUM). Speaking to Moneycontrol in the ‘The Market Podcast’, Saurabh Mukherjea Founder of Marcellus Investment Managers discussed his fund performance and rules how he picks stocks.\r\n\r\nMarcellus Investment Managers PMS scheme Consistent Compounder outperformed not just Nifty50 but was the top-performing scheme when compared with other PMS schemes in FY20.', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-market-podcast-saurabh-mukherjea-gives-3-mantras-for-stock-picking-amid-the-covid-19-pandemic', '', '', '2020-04-18 09:23:05', '2020-04-18 09:23:05', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3159', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(3165, 1, '2020-04-19 11:47:54', '2020-04-19 11:47:54', 'Even by the high standards of the long essays published in The Atlantic, this piece is simply exceptional. The author teaches a class in Harvard Business School on Happiness. That is not as odd as it sounds because: <em>“The scientific study of happiness has exploded over the past three decades. The Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton (both at Princeton University) publish extensively on the subject. The University of Pennsylvania has a whole graduate-degree program in positive psychology, led by Martin Seligman, one of the most distinguished social psychologists in the world. A peer-reviewed academic journal called the Journal of Happiness Studies has been in operation since the year 2000…”</em>\r\nSo what is the study of happiness about. In true American B-School style, the author boils it down to three equations.\r\nEQUATION 1: SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING = GENES + CIRCUMSTANCES + HABITS\r\n<em>“Equation 1 summarizes a vast amount of literature on subjective well-being, starting with the question of the heritability of happiness….the research is clear that there is a huge genetic component in determining your “set point” for subjective well-being, the baseline you always seem to return to after events sway your mood….the psychologists David Lykken and Auke Tellegen estimate that the genetic component of a person’s well-being is between 44 percent and 52 percent….</em>\r\n<em>The other two components are your circumstances and your habits. Research is all over the map on what percentage each part represents. Circumstances—the good and the bad that enter all of our lives—could make up as little as 10 percent or as much as 40 percent of your subjective well-being. Even if circumstances play a big role, however, most scholars think it doesn’t matter very much, because the effects of circumstance never last very long…even the unhappiness from the COVID-19 crisis will be in the rearview mirror before very long.”</em>\r\nEQUATION 2: HABITS = FAITH + FAMILY + FRIENDS + WORK\r\n<em>“This is my summary of thousands of academic studies…Enduring happiness comes from human relationships, productive work, and the transcendental elements of life….First, faith doesn’t mean any faith in particular. I practice the Catholic faith and am happy to recommend it to anyone, but the research is clear that many different faiths and secular life philosophies can provide this happiness edge. The key is to find a structure through which you can ponder life’s deeper questions and transcend a focus on your narrow self-interests to serve others.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, there is no magic formula for what shape your family and friendships should take. The key is to cultivate and maintain loving, faithful relationships with other people. One extraordinary 75-year study followed Harvard graduates from 1939 to 1944, into their 90s, looking at all aspects of their health and well-being. The principal investigator, the psychologist George Vaillant, summarized the findings as follows: “Happiness is love. Full stop.” People who have loving relationships with family and friends thrive; those who don’t, don’t.</em>\r\n<em>Finally, there’s work…One of the most robust findings in the happiness literature is the centrality of productive human endeavor in creating a sense of purpose in life…What makes work meaningful is not the kind of work it is, but the sense it gives you that you are earning your success and serving others….”</em>\r\nSo that you read the original piece in The Atlantic, we won’t give you the final equation. In our view, it is even better than the first two equations.', 'The Three Equations for a Happy Life, Even During a Pandemic', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-three-equations-for-a-happy-life-even-during-a-pandemic', '', '', '2020-04-20 11:52:55', '2020-04-20 11:52:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3165', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3166, 1, '2020-04-20 11:52:55', '2020-04-20 11:52:55', 'Even by the high standards of the long essays published in The Atlantic, this piece is simply exceptional. The author teaches a class in Harvard Business School on Happiness. That is not as odd as it sounds because: <em>“The scientific study of happiness has exploded over the past three decades. The Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton (both at Princeton University) publish extensively on the subject. The University of Pennsylvania has a whole graduate-degree program in positive psychology, led by Martin Seligman, one of the most distinguished social psychologists in the world. A peer-reviewed academic journal called the Journal of Happiness Studies has been in operation since the year 2000…”</em>\r\nSo what is the study of happiness about. In true American B-School style, the author boils it down to three equations.\r\nEQUATION 1: SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING = GENES + CIRCUMSTANCES + HABITS\r\n<em>“Equation 1 summarizes a vast amount of literature on subjective well-being, starting with the question of the heritability of happiness….the research is clear that there is a huge genetic component in determining your “set point” for subjective well-being, the baseline you always seem to return to after events sway your mood….the psychologists David Lykken and Auke Tellegen estimate that the genetic component of a person’s well-being is between 44 percent and 52 percent….</em>\r\n<em>The other two components are your circumstances and your habits. Research is all over the map on what percentage each part represents. Circumstances—the good and the bad that enter all of our lives—could make up as little as 10 percent or as much as 40 percent of your subjective well-being. Even if circumstances play a big role, however, most scholars think it doesn’t matter very much, because the effects of circumstance never last very long…even the unhappiness from the COVID-19 crisis will be in the rearview mirror before very long.”</em>\r\nEQUATION 2: HABITS = FAITH + FAMILY + FRIENDS + WORK\r\n<em>“This is my summary of thousands of academic studies…Enduring happiness comes from human relationships, productive work, and the transcendental elements of life….First, faith doesn’t mean any faith in particular. I practice the Catholic faith and am happy to recommend it to anyone, but the research is clear that many different faiths and secular life philosophies can provide this happiness edge. The key is to find a structure through which you can ponder life’s deeper questions and transcend a focus on your narrow self-interests to serve others.</em>\r\n<em>Similarly, there is no magic formula for what shape your family and friendships should take. The key is to cultivate and maintain loving, faithful relationships with other people. One extraordinary 75-year study followed Harvard graduates from 1939 to 1944, into their 90s, looking at all aspects of their health and well-being. The principal investigator, the psychologist George Vaillant, summarized the findings as follows: “Happiness is love. Full stop.” People who have loving relationships with family and friends thrive; those who don’t, don’t.</em>\r\n<em>Finally, there’s work…One of the most robust findings in the happiness literature is the centrality of productive human endeavor in creating a sense of purpose in life…What makes work meaningful is not the kind of work it is, but the sense it gives you that you are earning your success and serving others….”</em>\r\nSo that you read the original piece in The Atlantic, we won’t give you the final equation. In our view, it is even better than the first two equations.', 'The Three Equations for a Happy Life, Even During a Pandemic', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3165-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 11:52:55', '2020-04-20 11:52:55', '', 3165, 'https://marcellus.in/3165-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3167, 1, '2020-04-19 11:53:12', '2020-04-19 11:53:12', 'Several of you might have wondered why some people are natural leaders – delegating tasks or ordering people about effortlessly – whilst others are unsure, hesitant wrecks. This contrast is especially startling when you see two people or comparable ability who perform very differently in leadership roles. The author says that part of the answer to this puzzle lies in nature (genes) and part in nurture: <em>“As with almost any aspect of human nature, some of the answer comes down to your genetically inherited disposition. If your parents were shrinking violets, the odds are increased that you will be too. But that’s far from the whole story. Increasingly, psychologists are realising the important part that early life experiences play. And key here is the way your parents behaved toward you.”</em>\r\nIn turns out that overly protective parents can damage their child’s leadership abilities: <em>“Colloquially, this parenting approach is known as ‘helicopter parenting’ in reference to the idea of hovering nearby whether needed or not.</em>\r\n<em>Your parents likely had good intentions, such as ensuring you didn’t face uncomfortable challenges. Unfortunately this might have had some inadvertent, unhelpful effects, including “making you less confident and less capable of facing difficulties, therefore [leading you to] exhibit poorer leadership skills”, says Dr Judith Locke, a clinical psychologist in private practice and visiting fellow at Queensland University of Technology.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly is “helicopter parenting”? According to Ms Locke, such parenting is characterised by three deadly traits (which we at Marcellus believe are found in most Indian households): <em>“…this is an approach being extremely responsive to the child, being extremely undemanding in some contexts, yet being highly demanding in others. For instance, a helicopter parent is likely to be overprotective, overly attentive and believe their child is always right. They will try to do everything for their child (rather than expecting the child to handle it themselves), and might expect their child’s peers and school to bend over backwards to accommodate their child’s needs too. At the same time, this kind of parent will be highly demanding, in the sense of having high expectations for their child’s achievements, overscheduling their child’s time and wanting their child to be their friend and in constant contact.”</em>\r\nAs with many cultural traits demonstrated by Indians, the Chinese too have their fair share of helicopter parents: <em>“The latest research on how this extreme coddling can stifle leadership skills comes from China. Psychologists surveyed nearly 1,500 teenagers – average age 14 – at 13 schools in Beijing. Yufang Bian at Beijing Normal University and her colleagues assessed the teenagers’ leadership potential comprehensively. First they quizzed the teenagers’ peers, teachers and parents to get a sense of whether they were seen by others as being a good leader. Second, they checked whether the teenagers were actually in any leadership roles, such as being a team leader in a class science group or a president in a student club.</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, the teenagers rated how much their parents had been overprotective by agreeing or disagreeing with statements such as ‘My parents supervised my every move growing up’ and ‘My parents often stepped in to solve life problems for me’. The teens also took quizzes measuring their self-esteem and how confident they felt about being a leader.</em>\r\n<em>…Bian and her team found a clear pattern. The more overprotective their parents, the less the teens were perceived as having leadership potential by others, and the less likely they were to actually be in leadership roles. Statistically, this link was explained by the fact that the teens with helicopter parents tended to have lower self-esteem, which in turn was associated with being less confident about being a leader.”</em>\r\nIn case you are now holding your head in your hands about what to do with you child, help is at hand from Ms Locke: <em>“Locke, who is also the author of The Bonsai Child (a parenting book to help parents develop their child’s potential by not overparenting), recommends beginning to take more control over your own life, including being more financially independent if you can, and avoiding the temptation to call your parents each time you have a problem.”</em>', 'What leader are you? It depends on your parents', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'what-leader-are-you-it-depends-on-your-parents', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:34:52', '2020-04-20 12:34:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3167', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3168, 1, '2020-04-20 11:54:58', '2020-04-20 11:54:58', 'Several of you might have wondered why some people are natural leaders – delegating tasks or ordering people about effortlessly – whilst others are unsure, hesitant wrecks. This contrast is especially startling when you see two people or comparable ability who perform very differently in leadership roles. The author says that part of the answer to this puzzle lies in nature (genes) and part in nurture: <em>“As with almost any aspect of human nature, some of the answer comes down to your genetically inherited disposition. If your parents were shrinking violets, the odds are increased that you will be too. But that’s far from the whole story. Increasingly, psychologists are realising the important part that early life experiences play. And key here is the way your parents behaved toward you.”</em>\r\nIn turns out that overly protective parents can damage their child’s leadership abilities: <em>“Colloquially, this parenting approach is known as ‘helicopter parenting’ in reference to the idea of hovering nearby whether needed or not.</em>\r\n<em>Your parents likely had good intentions, such as ensuring you didn’t face uncomfortable challenges. Unfortunately this might have had some inadvertent, unhelpful effects, including “making you less confident and less capable of facing difficulties, therefore [leading you to] exhibit poorer leadership skills”, says Dr Judith Locke, a clinical psychologist in private practice and visiting fellow at Queensland University of Technology.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly is “helicopter parenting”? According to Ms Locke, such parenting is characterised by three deadly traits (which we at Marcellus believe are found in most Indian households): <em>“…this is an approach being extremely responsive to the child, being extremely undemanding in some contexts, yet being highly demanding in others. For instance, a helicopter parent is likely to be overprotective, overly attentive and believe their child is always right. They will try to do everything for their child (rather than expecting the child to handle it themselves), and might expect their child’s peers and school to bend over backwards to accommodate their child’s needs too. At the same time, this kind of parent will be highly demanding, in the sense of having high expectations for their child’s achievements, overscheduling their child’s time and wanting their child to be their friend and in constant contact.”</em>\r\nAs with many cultural traits demonstrated by Indians, the Chinese too have their fair share of helicopter parents: <em>“The latest research on how this extreme coddling can stifle leadership skills comes from China. Psychologists surveyed nearly 1,500 teenagers – average age 14 – at 13 schools in Beijing. Yufang Bian at Beijing Normal University and her colleagues assessed the teenagers’ leadership potential comprehensively. First they quizzed the teenagers’ peers, teachers and parents to get a sense of whether they were seen by others as being a good leader. Second, they checked whether the teenagers were actually in any leadership roles, such as being a team leader in a class science group or a president in a student club.</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, the teenagers rated how much their parents had been overprotective by agreeing or disagreeing with statements such as ‘My parents supervised my every move growing up’ and ‘My parents often stepped in to solve life problems for me’. The teens also took quizzes measuring their self-esteem and how confident they felt about being a leader.</em>\r\n<em>…Bian and her team found a clear pattern. The more overprotective their parents, the less the teens were perceived as having leadership potential by others, and the less likely they were to actually be in leadership roles. Statistically, this link was explained by the fact that the teens with helicopter parents tended to have lower self-esteem, which in turn was associated with being less confident about being a leader.”</em>\r\nIn case you are now holding your head in your hands about what to do with you child, help is at hand from Ms Locke: <em>“Locke, who is also the author of The Bonsai Child (a parenting book to help parents develop their child’s potential by not overparenting), recommends beginning to take more control over your own life, including being more financially independent if you can, and avoiding the temptation to call your parents each time you have a problem.”</em>', 'What leader are you? It depends on your parents', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3167-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 11:54:58', '2020-04-20 11:54:58', '', 3167, 'https://marcellus.in/3167-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3169, 1, '2020-04-19 11:55:17', '2020-04-19 11:55:17', 'In this fascinating long read, Matt Stoller tears into the Private Equity industry given the heavy indebtedness amidst the pandemic driven economic depression exposes the industry’s vulnerability and how the industry is using political capital to engineer a bailout yet again. The newsletter traces the PE industry’s origins to the 1980s junk bond boom and highlights the consequent similarities in the ‘business models’ involving leveraged buyouts. As a build up to the current issue, Stoller starts off with a riveting recap of the Michael Milken era of junk bond driven corporate raids even using the Goodfellas ‘bust-up’ model for analogy, something most of us back home in India would be far too familiar with – the promoter-banker-politician nexus which inevitably comes at the expense of shareholders, creditors and taxpayers.\r\n<em>“In 1993, economists George Akerloff and Paul Romer wrote a paper on the conjoined two crises of 1980s finance. The first was mass junk bond defaults late in the decade, and the second was the savings and loan crisis of deregulated banks going bankrupt en masse as they engaged in an orgy of self-dealing and speculation. The paper was called Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit, and in it, they described how financiers can profit by destroying corporations, using a particular strategy. “Our description of a looting strategy,” they wrote, “amounts to a sophisticated version of having a limited liability corporation borrow money, pay it into the private account of the owner, and then default on its debt.”</em>\r\n<em>What Akerloff and Romer were basically talking about was a legal version of the bust-out scene from Goodfellas. In that movie, mobsters took an ownership stake in a restaurant they often frequented, and then used the restaurant’s credit to buy liquor, which they would move out of the back and sell at half off. When the restaurant’s credit was all used up, they burned the restaurant to the ground to collect the insurance money. It was an intentional bankruptcy, a theft from creditors by those who had control of the restaurant and did not care what happened to the asset in the end.</em>\r\n<em>A bust-out requires the ability to borrow from someone, so that you can steal from the people lending you money. This is also true for its white collar cousin. So the trick, for both the mobsters, and the white collar looters described by Akerloff and Romer, is to find a way to borrow money. I’m reminded of this paper, and the bust-out scene in Goodfellas, because I’ve been trying to understand what is happening with private equity as the Coronavirus induces a massive, if short-lived, shock to our economy.”</em>\r\n<em>The reason I’m reminded of this paper is because private equity is a business created in part by junk bond takeover specialists in the 1980s, who were the topic of Akerloff’s and Romer’s paper. What’s interesting about junk bond specialists is that they had a more insidious plan than the mobsters in Goodfellas. Mobsters just stole from the bank, which did not know that the restaurant had become an object to be looted. But financiers of the 1980s actually captured control of the bank.</em>\r\n<em>Akerloff and Romer showed that both savings and loan executives and junk bond kings were making loans they knew could not be paid back, because they were often self-dealing. They would lend to entities in which they had a stake. And since they were lending money that was not theirs, they did not care if the loan went sour, as long as some of it got transferred to their own pockets. In other words, the best way to get a lender to lend you money is to put an agent in charge of the bank who doesn’t care if that money is paid back. Bill Black, a bank regulator in the 1980s, later wrote a book about this time with the memorable title: The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&amp;L Industry.</em>\r\n<em>…Between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, it had been smooth sailing for private equity firms, who had in turn gotten more and more aggressive. Pension fund investors have thrown more money at PE firms, and debt investors, hungry for anything with a return, have also gotten more hungry for higher yields. PE firms have even launched their own debt funds, meaning that they are both borrowing money to buy firms and lending money to support takeovers. Basically, there’s now an entire shadow banking system of private equity giants and their various captive institutions lending and borrowing from each other, and buying and selling each others’ companies.</em>\r\n<em>Private equity is undergoing what the great theorist Hyman Minsky pointed out is the Ponzi stage of the credit cycle in capitalist financial systems. This is the final stage before a blow-up. As Minsky observed, a period of placidity starts with firms borrowing money but being able to cover their borrowing with cash flow. Eventually, there’s more risk-taking until there’s a speculative frenzy, and firms can’t cover their debts with cash flow. They keep rolling over loans, and just hope that their assets keep going up in value so that they can sell assets to cover loans if necessary. To give an analogy, in 2006, when people in Las Vegas were flipping homes with no income, assuming that home values always went up, that was the Ponzi stage.</em>\r\n<em>Now, what happens with Ponzi financing is that at some point, nicknamed a “Minsky Moment,” the bubble pops, and there’s mass distress as asset values fall and credit is withdrawn. Selling assets isn’t enough to pay back loans, because asset prices have collapsed and there’s not enough cash flow to service the debt. Mass bankruptcies or bailouts, which are really both a restructuring of capital structures, are the result.</em>\r\n<em>I think you can see where I’m going with this. PE portfolio companies are heavily indebted, and they aren’t generating enough cash to service debts. The steady increase in asset values since 2009 has enabled funds to make tremendous gains because of the use of borrowed money. But now they are exposed to tremendous losses should there be any sort of disruption. And oh has this ever been a disruption. The coronavirus has exposed the entire sector.”</em>', 'Is Private Equity Having Its Minsky Moment?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'is-private-equity-having-its-minsky-moment', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:32:34', '2020-04-20 12:32:34', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3169', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3170, 1, '2020-04-20 11:59:53', '2020-04-20 11:59:53', 'In this fascinating long read, Matt Stoller tears into the Private Equity industry given the heavy indebtedness amidst the pandemic driven economic depression exposes the industry’s vulnerability and how the industry is using political capital to engineer a bailout yet again. The newsletter traces the PE industry’s origins to the 1980s junk bond boom and highlights the consequent similarities in the ‘business models’ involving leveraged buyouts. As a build up to the current issue, Stoller starts off with a riveting recap of the Michael Milken era of junk bond driven corporate raids even using the Goodfellas ‘bust-up’ model for analogy, something most of us back home in India would be far too familiar with – the promoter-banker-politician nexus which inevitably comes at the expense of shareholders, creditors and taxpayers.\r\n<em>“In 1993, economists George Akerloff and Paul Romer wrote a paper on the conjoined two crises of 1980s finance. The first was mass junk bond defaults late in the decade, and the second was the savings and loan crisis of deregulated banks going bankrupt en masse as they engaged in an orgy of self-dealing and speculation. The paper was called Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit, and in it, they described how financiers can profit by destroying corporations, using a particular strategy. “Our description of a looting strategy,” they wrote, “amounts to a sophisticated version of having a limited liability corporation borrow money, pay it into the private account of the owner, and then default on its debt.”</em>\r\n<em>What Akerloff and Romer were basically talking about was a legal version of the bust-out scene from Goodfellas. In that movie, mobsters took an ownership stake in a restaurant they often frequented, and then used the restaurant’s credit to buy liquor, which they would move out of the back and sell at half off. When the restaurant’s credit was all used up, they burned the restaurant to the ground to collect the insurance money. It was an intentional bankruptcy, a theft from creditors by those who had control of the restaurant and did not care what happened to the asset in the end.</em>\r\n<em>A bust-out requires the ability to borrow from someone, so that you can steal from the people lending you money. This is also true for its white collar cousin. So the trick, for both the mobsters, and the white collar looters described by Akerloff and Romer, is to find a way to borrow money. I’m reminded of this paper, and the bust-out scene in Goodfellas, because I’ve been trying to understand what is happening with private equity as the Coronavirus induces a massive, if short-lived, shock to our economy.”</em>\r\n<em>The reason I’m reminded of this paper is because private equity is a business created in part by junk bond takeover specialists in the 1980s, who were the topic of Akerloff’s and Romer’s paper. What’s interesting about junk bond specialists is that they had a more insidious plan than the mobsters in Goodfellas. Mobsters just stole from the bank, which did not know that the restaurant had become an object to be looted. But financiers of the 1980s actually captured control of the bank.</em>\r\n<em>Akerloff and Romer showed that both savings and loan executives and junk bond kings were making loans they knew could not be paid back, because they were often self-dealing. They would lend to entities in which they had a stake. And since they were lending money that was not theirs, they did not care if the loan went sour, as long as some of it got transferred to their own pockets. In other words, the best way to get a lender to lend you money is to put an agent in charge of the bank who doesn’t care if that money is paid back. Bill Black, a bank regulator in the 1980s, later wrote a book about this time with the memorable title: The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&amp;L Industry.</em>\r\n<em>…Between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, it had been smooth sailing for private equity firms, who had in turn gotten more and more aggressive. Pension fund investors have thrown more money at PE firms, and debt investors, hungry for anything with a return, have also gotten more hungry for higher yields. PE firms have even launched their own debt funds, meaning that they are both borrowing money to buy firms and lending money to support takeovers. Basically, there’s now an entire shadow banking system of private equity giants and their various captive institutions lending and borrowing from each other, and buying and selling each others’ companies.</em>\r\n<em>Private equity is undergoing what the great theorist Hyman Minsky pointed out is the Ponzi stage of the credit cycle in capitalist financial systems. This is the final stage before a blow-up. As Minsky observed, a period of placidity starts with firms borrowing money but being able to cover their borrowing with cash flow. Eventually, there’s more risk-taking until there’s a speculative frenzy, and firms can’t cover their debts with cash flow. They keep rolling over loans, and just hope that their assets keep going up in value so that they can sell assets to cover loans if necessary. To give an analogy, in 2006, when people in Las Vegas were flipping homes with no income, assuming that home values always went up, that was the Ponzi stage.</em>\r\n<em>Now, what happens with Ponzi financing is that at some point, nicknamed a “Minsky Moment,” the bubble pops, and there’s mass distress as asset values fall and credit is withdrawn. Selling assets isn’t enough to pay back loans, because asset prices have collapsed and there’s not enough cash flow to service the debt. Mass bankruptcies or bailouts, which are really both a restructuring of capital structures, are the result.</em>\r\n<em>I think you can see where I’m going with this. PE portfolio companies are heavily indebted, and they aren’t generating enough cash to service debts. The steady increase in asset values since 2009 has enabled funds to make tremendous gains because of the use of borrowed money. But now they are exposed to tremendous losses should there be any sort of disruption. And oh has this ever been a disruption. The coronavirus has exposed the entire sector.”</em>', 'Is Private Equity Having Its Minsky Moment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3169-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 11:59:53', '2020-04-20 11:59:53', '', 3169, 'https://marcellus.in/3169-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3171, 1, '2020-04-19 12:00:07', '2020-04-19 12:00:07', 'Most parts of the world, including the most severely affected United States are now reporting either a stagnation or a decline in the number of daily new cases, prompting talks of return to normal life. Given this has been achieved through stringent lockdown measures, such decisions of returning to normalcy need to factor in the possible rebound in infection rate with social distancing relaxed. However, Singapore’s experience where the last few days have seen a sharp acceleration in reported cases doesn’t lend much confidence to the prospects of a return to normalcy. Indeed, this piece in the NY Times suggests that the path to normalcy will likely involve <em>“a plan on a scale that would previously be considered unimaginable.” </em>The author explores three such seemingly outrageous plans. First, the Romer plan of maximum testing where the Nobel winning NYU professor proposes to test as much as 7% of the population every day, ambitious for the sheer scale proposed. Second, The Center for American Progress plan to contact trace through mobile phone based surveillance, the resulting privacy related outrage. Third, the PolicyLab focus on universal community-level surveillance. Whilst this piece was written before the spurt in cases in Singapore, it has only reinforced the message that a system as well managed as Singapore is unable to control the situation and has had to implement forced lockdown eventually.\r\n<em>“Paul Romer, a Nobel-winning economist and N.Y.U. professor, proposes that 7 percent of the population be tested each day. If put on a rotating schedule, that would mean everyone would be tested roughly once every two weeks. He argues that even if there are plenty of false negatives, if we committed to isolating everyone with a positive test, we could keep the vast majority of Americans out and about in normal life. All told, that would mean 150 million tests a week. Critics will argue that’s impossible. We cannot even seem to manage a million a day. They say we lack the materials, as well as the reagents for chemical analysis, the delivery infrastructure and the machines to run so many tests. Mr. Romer is not dissuaded. “I’ve been focused on a single idea my whole career, that just because something is unfamiliar doesn’t mean it’s impossible,” he said. “Building interstate highways, scanning every book, going to the moon — these were all outrageous ideas at one time. But if we put enough resources and our minds behind it, we are able to make the impossible possible.”</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>Other ambitious ideas can be found in a plan from the Center for American Progress, written by Dr. Emanuel and colleagues. Part of the proposal is an enormous information technology monitoring system. It would call for all Americans to download apps to their phones that would monitor where they go and whom they get near, which would allow contact tracing to be done instantaneously. Everyone could sign in electronically before using public transportation, entering large buildings or schools or gathering in groups above a certain number. They even propose requiring the app to be downloaded in order to receive test results. In an ideal situation, it would run in the background, regardless of whether users signed in.</em> <em>“If we could do real-time contact tracing based on a person’s phone and GPS signals, and alert people that they have been exposed to a Covid-19 positive person,” that would greatly ease the containment strategy, he said. Of course, such a system would be considered a large intrusion on privacy, and it’s not clear it is politically feasible — or even legal.     </em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>“A more realistic and useful approach would focus much more on surveillance, monitoring communities more than individuals,” she said. As detailed in a PolicyLab Policy Review, such surveillance could relax our need for active testing. It would be more reliant on passive systems, like monitoring electronic medical records or traditional infection monitoring systems to pick up signals for outbreaks, like increased visits to doctors or emergency rooms for respiratory illnesses. Surveillance could also involve a “participatory approach,” like asking patients to be tested before clinic visits, or to enter symptoms on web-based tracking platforms, or to regularly check their temperatures at home. Thermometers would be ubiquitous, and could even be linked to the internet for reminders and reporting. If such systems work well, we don’t need to capture an entire population to detect a signal. We could identify hot spots, telling us where to do more focused testing. Such testing could even be done by pooled samples. In such an approach, areas would have their individual samples combined together for testing, which saves resources. If it’s clear, everyone is safe. If an infection is found, then — again — more focused testing could be done on the individuals in the pool. The PolicyLab review also highlights the benefits of improving workplace safety, especially in high-risk areas like child care, school and health care environments, to make infection control more robust and surveillance easier to accomplish.”</em>', 'Lesson From Singapore: Why We May Need to Think Bigger', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lesson-from-singapore-why-we-may-need-to-think-bigger', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:29:22', '2020-04-20 12:29:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3171', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3172, 1, '2020-04-20 12:01:40', '2020-04-20 12:01:40', 'Most parts of the world, including the most severely affected United States are now reporting either a stagnation or a decline in the number of daily new cases, prompting talks of return to normal life. Given this has been achieved through stringent lockdown measures, such decisions of returning to normalcy need to factor in the possible rebound in infection rate with social distancing relaxed. However, Singapore’s experience where the last few days have seen a sharp acceleration in reported cases doesn’t lend much confidence to the prospects of a return to normalcy. Indeed, this piece in the NY Times suggests that the path to normalcy will likely involve <em>“a plan on a scale that would previously be considered unimaginable.” </em>The author explores three such seemingly outrageous plans. First, the Romer plan of maximum testing where the Nobel winning NYU professor proposes to test as much as 7% of the population every day, ambitious for the sheer scale proposed. Second, The Center for American Progress plan to contact trace through mobile phone based surveillance, the resulting privacy related outrage. Third, the PolicyLab focus on universal community-level surveillance. Whilst this piece was written before the spurt in cases in Singapore, it has only reinforced the message that a system as well managed as Singapore is unable to control the situation and has had to implement forced lockdown eventually.\r\n<em>“Paul Romer, a Nobel-winning economist and N.Y.U. professor, proposes that 7 percent of the population be tested each day. If put on a rotating schedule, that would mean everyone would be tested roughly once every two weeks. He argues that even if there are plenty of false negatives, if we committed to isolating everyone with a positive test, we could keep the vast majority of Americans out and about in normal life. All told, that would mean 150 million tests a week. Critics will argue that’s impossible. We cannot even seem to manage a million a day. They say we lack the materials, as well as the reagents for chemical analysis, the delivery infrastructure and the machines to run so many tests. Mr. Romer is not dissuaded. “I’ve been focused on a single idea my whole career, that just because something is unfamiliar doesn’t mean it’s impossible,” he said. “Building interstate highways, scanning every book, going to the moon — these were all outrageous ideas at one time. But if we put enough resources and our minds behind it, we are able to make the impossible possible.”</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>Other ambitious ideas can be found in a plan from the Center for American Progress, written by Dr. Emanuel and colleagues. Part of the proposal is an enormous information technology monitoring system. It would call for all Americans to download apps to their phones that would monitor where they go and whom they get near, which would allow contact tracing to be done instantaneously. Everyone could sign in electronically before using public transportation, entering large buildings or schools or gathering in groups above a certain number. They even propose requiring the app to be downloaded in order to receive test results. In an ideal situation, it would run in the background, regardless of whether users signed in.</em> <em>“If we could do real-time contact tracing based on a person’s phone and GPS signals, and alert people that they have been exposed to a Covid-19 positive person,” that would greatly ease the containment strategy, he said. Of course, such a system would be considered a large intrusion on privacy, and it’s not clear it is politically feasible — or even legal.     </em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>“A more realistic and useful approach would focus much more on surveillance, monitoring communities more than individuals,” she said. As detailed in a PolicyLab Policy Review, such surveillance could relax our need for active testing. It would be more reliant on passive systems, like monitoring electronic medical records or traditional infection monitoring systems to pick up signals for outbreaks, like increased visits to doctors or emergency rooms for respiratory illnesses. Surveillance could also involve a “participatory approach,” like asking patients to be tested before clinic visits, or to enter symptoms on web-based tracking platforms, or to regularly check their temperatures at home. Thermometers would be ubiquitous, and could even be linked to the internet for reminders and reporting. If such systems work well, we don’t need to capture an entire population to detect a signal. We could identify hot spots, telling us where to do more focused testing. Such testing could even be done by pooled samples. In such an approach, areas would have their individual samples combined together for testing, which saves resources. If it’s clear, everyone is safe. If an infection is found, then — again — more focused testing could be done on the individuals in the pool. The PolicyLab review also highlights the benefits of improving workplace safety, especially in high-risk areas like child care, school and health care environments, to make infection control more robust and surveillance easier to accomplish.”</em>', 'Lesson From Singapore: Why We May Need to Think Bigger', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3171-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:01:40', '2020-04-20 12:01:40', '', 3171, 'https://marcellus.in/3171-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3173, 1, '2020-04-19 12:01:54', '2020-04-19 12:01:54', 'It was just a matter of time. Given the efficacy of contact tracing in flattening the curve so far, to execute contact tracing at a large scale, technology had to come to the rescue. Whilst Asian countries such as China, Korea and Singapore have been using mobile phone based surveillance for contact tracing, with Apple and Google getting involved, this could now go global mainstream. The piece explains the Bluetooth based technology behind the initiative also raises some pertinent questions around privacy and the risk of use by more authoritarian states for totalitarian surveillance even beyond Covid.\r\n<em>“They [Apple and Google] are joining forces to build an opt-in contact-tracing tool using Bluetooth technology that could help public health officials track the spread of Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The new tool brings with it not only hope for a quicker end to the pandemic, but also a host of privacy and security concerns.</em>\r\n<em>The contact-tracing tool Apple and Google want to create would have your smartphone log when you’ve come into close contact with other people. If one of those people later reports Covid-19 symptoms to a public health authority, your phone would receive an alert about the diagnosis. It works a bit like exchanging contact information with everyone you meet, except everything is designed to be anonymous and automatic.</em>\r\n<em>Once it’s equipped with this new contact-tracing software, your smartphone will periodically exchange anonymized tracing keys with nearby devices via Bluetooth. The phone maintains a list of keys collected from people you have come in contact that with stays on your device, not a server, unless you test positive for coronavirus and report your diagnosis. If that happens, your phone will then upload those keys to a server that will send alerts to the owners of recently collected keys. The alert will not reveal who’s infected — in this example, that’s you — but it will share information for what people who were in proximity to you should do next.”</em>', 'Apple and Google want to turn your phone into a Covid-tracking machine', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'apple-and-google-want-to-turn-your-phone-into-a-covid-tracking-machine', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:04:39', '2020-04-20 12:04:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3173', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3174, 1, '2020-04-20 12:04:39', '2020-04-20 12:04:39', 'It was just a matter of time. Given the efficacy of contact tracing in flattening the curve so far, to execute contact tracing at a large scale, technology had to come to the rescue. Whilst Asian countries such as China, Korea and Singapore have been using mobile phone based surveillance for contact tracing, with Apple and Google getting involved, this could now go global mainstream. The piece explains the Bluetooth based technology behind the initiative also raises some pertinent questions around privacy and the risk of use by more authoritarian states for totalitarian surveillance even beyond Covid.\r\n<em>“They [Apple and Google] are joining forces to build an opt-in contact-tracing tool using Bluetooth technology that could help public health officials track the spread of Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. The new tool brings with it not only hope for a quicker end to the pandemic, but also a host of privacy and security concerns.</em>\r\n<em>The contact-tracing tool Apple and Google want to create would have your smartphone log when you’ve come into close contact with other people. If one of those people later reports Covid-19 symptoms to a public health authority, your phone would receive an alert about the diagnosis. It works a bit like exchanging contact information with everyone you meet, except everything is designed to be anonymous and automatic.</em>\r\n<em>Once it’s equipped with this new contact-tracing software, your smartphone will periodically exchange anonymized tracing keys with nearby devices via Bluetooth. The phone maintains a list of keys collected from people you have come in contact that with stays on your device, not a server, unless you test positive for coronavirus and report your diagnosis. If that happens, your phone will then upload those keys to a server that will send alerts to the owners of recently collected keys. The alert will not reveal who’s infected — in this example, that’s you — but it will share information for what people who were in proximity to you should do next.”</em>', 'Apple and Google want to turn your phone into a Covid-tracking machine', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3173-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:04:39', '2020-04-20 12:04:39', '', 3173, 'https://marcellus.in/3173-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3175, 1, '2020-04-19 12:04:51', '2020-04-19 12:04:51', 'At Marcellus, we are ardent fans of ‘The Wall’ – Rahul Dravid, not least because of the similarities between our investing beliefs and his batting temperament – minimising risk, but also the statesmanship he exudes which makes his contribution to the game go beyond that as a player – someone who derives meaning and purpose from the profession. This piece in The Scroll recollects two of his lectures – the 2011 Bradman oration and the 2015 Pataudi lecture, which bring out his statesmanship qualities –  an ability to read and learn from diverse fields, the resulting clarity of thought and ability to articulate his views on the bigger issues, exemplified by his opening for the Bradman speech:\r\n<em>“First before all else, I must say that I find myself humbled by the venue we find ourselves in. Even though there is neither a pitch in sight, nor stumps or bat and balls, as a cricketer, I feel I stand on very sacred ground tonight. When I was told that I would be speaking at the National War Memorial, I thought of how often and how meaninglessly, the words ‘war’, ‘battle’, ‘fight’ are used to describe cricket matches.</em>\r\n<em>Yes, we cricketers devote the better part of our adult lives to being prepared to perform for our countries, to persist and compete as intensely as we can - and more. This building, however, recognises the men and women who lived out the words - war, battle, fight - for real and then gave it all up for their country, their lives left incomplete, futures extinguished.</em>\r\n<em>The people of both our countries are often told that cricket is the one thing that brings Indians and Australians together. That cricket is our single common denominator.</em>\r\n<em>India’s first Test series as a free country was played against Australia in November 1947, three months after our independence. Yet the histories of our countries are linked together far more deeply than we think and further back in time than 1947.</em>\r\n<em>We share something else other than cricket. Before they played the first Test match against each other, Indians and Australians fought wars together, on the same side. In Gallipoli, where, along with the thousands of Australians, over 1300 Indians also lost their lives. In World War II, there were Indian and Australian soldiers in El Alamein, North Africa, in the Syria-Lebanon campaign, in Burma, in the battle for Singapore.</em>\r\n<em>Before we were competitors, Indians and Australians were comrades. So it is only appropriate that we are here this evening at the Australian War Memorial, where along with celebrating cricket and cricketers, we remember the unknown soldiers of both nations.”</em>\r\n<em>In 2012, noted sports journalist Gideon Haigh was delivering the oration and he started off his speech saying, “Last year, Rahul Dravid delivered perhaps the best and certainly the most-watched of all Bradman Orations, a superbly crafted double-century of a speech on which, I remember thinking at the time, it would be hard to improve.”</em>\r\n<em>“Now I find myself coming in after Rahul, a job so huge that India has traditionally left it to Sachin Tendulkar. By that marker, I can really only disappoint,” Haigh added.”</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Pause, rewind, play: Words of wisdom from The Wall – two timeless lectures by Rahul Dravid', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'pause-rewind-play-words-of-wisdom-from-the-wall-two-timeless-lectures-by-rahul-dravid', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:07:20', '2020-04-20 12:07:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3175', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3176, 1, '2020-04-20 12:07:20', '2020-04-20 12:07:20', 'At Marcellus, we are ardent fans of ‘The Wall’ – Rahul Dravid, not least because of the similarities between our investing beliefs and his batting temperament – minimising risk, but also the statesmanship he exudes which makes his contribution to the game go beyond that as a player – someone who derives meaning and purpose from the profession. This piece in The Scroll recollects two of his lectures – the 2011 Bradman oration and the 2015 Pataudi lecture, which bring out his statesmanship qualities –  an ability to read and learn from diverse fields, the resulting clarity of thought and ability to articulate his views on the bigger issues, exemplified by his opening for the Bradman speech:\r\n<em>“First before all else, I must say that I find myself humbled by the venue we find ourselves in. Even though there is neither a pitch in sight, nor stumps or bat and balls, as a cricketer, I feel I stand on very sacred ground tonight. When I was told that I would be speaking at the National War Memorial, I thought of how often and how meaninglessly, the words ‘war’, ‘battle’, ‘fight’ are used to describe cricket matches.</em>\r\n<em>Yes, we cricketers devote the better part of our adult lives to being prepared to perform for our countries, to persist and compete as intensely as we can - and more. This building, however, recognises the men and women who lived out the words - war, battle, fight - for real and then gave it all up for their country, their lives left incomplete, futures extinguished.</em>\r\n<em>The people of both our countries are often told that cricket is the one thing that brings Indians and Australians together. That cricket is our single common denominator.</em>\r\n<em>India’s first Test series as a free country was played against Australia in November 1947, three months after our independence. Yet the histories of our countries are linked together far more deeply than we think and further back in time than 1947.</em>\r\n<em>We share something else other than cricket. Before they played the first Test match against each other, Indians and Australians fought wars together, on the same side. In Gallipoli, where, along with the thousands of Australians, over 1300 Indians also lost their lives. In World War II, there were Indian and Australian soldiers in El Alamein, North Africa, in the Syria-Lebanon campaign, in Burma, in the battle for Singapore.</em>\r\n<em>Before we were competitors, Indians and Australians were comrades. So it is only appropriate that we are here this evening at the Australian War Memorial, where along with celebrating cricket and cricketers, we remember the unknown soldiers of both nations.”</em>\r\n<em>In 2012, noted sports journalist Gideon Haigh was delivering the oration and he started off his speech saying, “Last year, Rahul Dravid delivered perhaps the best and certainly the most-watched of all Bradman Orations, a superbly crafted double-century of a speech on which, I remember thinking at the time, it would be hard to improve.”</em>\r\n<em>“Now I find myself coming in after Rahul, a job so huge that India has traditionally left it to Sachin Tendulkar. By that marker, I can really only disappoint,” Haigh added.”</em>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Pause, rewind, play: Words of wisdom from The Wall – two timeless lectures by Rahul Dravid', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3175-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:07:20', '2020-04-20 12:07:20', '', 3175, 'https://marcellus.in/3175-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3177, 1, '2020-04-20 12:29:22', '2020-04-20 12:29:22', 'Most parts of the world, including the most severely affected United States are now reporting either a stagnation or a decline in the number of daily new cases, prompting talks of return to normal life. Given this has been achieved through stringent lockdown measures, such decisions of returning to normalcy need to factor in the possible rebound in infection rate with social distancing relaxed. However, Singapore’s experience where the last few days have seen a sharp acceleration in reported cases doesn’t lend much confidence to the prospects of a return to normalcy. Indeed, this piece in the NY Times suggests that the path to normalcy will likely involve <em>“a plan on a scale that would previously be considered unimaginable.” </em>The author explores three such seemingly outrageous plans. First, the Romer plan of maximum testing where the Nobel winning NYU professor proposes to test as much as 7% of the population every day, ambitious for the sheer scale proposed. Second, The Center for American Progress plan to contact trace through mobile phone based surveillance, the resulting privacy related outrage. Third, the PolicyLab focus on universal community-level surveillance. Whilst this piece was written before the spurt in cases in Singapore, it has only reinforced the message that a system as well managed as Singapore is unable to control the situation and has had to implement forced lockdown eventually.\r\n<em>“Paul Romer, a Nobel-winning economist and N.Y.U. professor, proposes that 7 percent of the population be tested each day. If put on a rotating schedule, that would mean everyone would be tested roughly once every two weeks. He argues that even if there are plenty of false negatives, if we committed to isolating everyone with a positive test, we could keep the vast majority of Americans out and about in normal life. All told, that would mean 150 million tests a week. Critics will argue that’s impossible. We cannot even seem to manage a million a day. They say we lack the materials, as well as the reagents for chemical analysis, the delivery infrastructure and the machines to run so many tests. Mr. Romer is not dissuaded. “I’ve been focused on a single idea my whole career, that just because something is unfamiliar doesn’t mean it’s impossible,” he said. “Building interstate highways, scanning every book, going to the moon — these were all outrageous ideas at one time. But if we put enough resources and our minds behind it, we are able to make the impossible possible.”</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>Other ambitious ideas can be found in a plan from the Center for American Progress, written by Dr. Emanuel and colleagues. Part of the proposal is an enormous information technology monitoring system. It would call for all Americans to download apps to their phones that would monitor where they go and whom they get near, which would allow contact tracing to be done instantaneously. Everyone could sign in electronically before using public transportation, entering large buildings or schools or gathering in groups above a certain number. They even propose requiring the app to be downloaded in order to receive test results. In an ideal situation, it would run in the background, regardless of whether users signed in.</em> <em>“If we could do real-time contact tracing based on a person’s phone and GPS signals, and alert people that they have been exposed to a Covid-19 positive person,” that would greatly ease the containment strategy, he said. Of course, such a system would be considered a large intrusion on privacy, and it’s not clear it is politically feasible — or even legal.     </em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>“A more realistic and useful approach would focus much more on surveillance, monitoring communities more than individuals,” she said. As detailed in a PolicyLab Policy Review, such surveillance could relax our need for active testing. It would be more reliant on passive systems, like monitoring electronic medical records or traditional infection monitoring systems to pick up signals for outbreaks, like increased visits to doctors or emergency rooms for respiratory illnesses. Surveillance could also involve a “participatory approach,” like asking patients to be tested before clinic visits, or to enter symptoms on web-based tracking platforms, or to regularly check their temperatures at home. Thermometers would be ubiquitous, and could even be linked to the internet for reminders and reporting. If such systems work well, we don’t need to capture an entire population to detect a signal. We could identify hot spots, telling us where to do more focused testing. Such testing could even be done by pooled samples. In such an approach, areas would have their individual samples combined together for testing, which saves resources. If it’s clear, everyone is safe. If an infection is found, then — again — more focused testing could be done on the individuals in the pool. The PolicyLab review also highlights the benefits of improving workplace safety, especially in high-risk areas like child care, school and health care environments, to make infection control more robust and surveillance easier to accomplish.”</em>', 'Lesson From Singapore: Why We May Need to Think Bigger', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3171-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:29:22', '2020-04-20 12:29:22', '', 3171, 'https://marcellus.in/3171-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3178, 1, '2020-04-20 12:30:49', '2020-04-20 12:30:49', 'In this fascinating long read, Matt Stoller tears into the Private Equity industry given the heavy indebtedness amidst the pandemic driven economic depression exposes the industry’s vulnerability and how the industry is using political capital to engineer a bailout yet again. The newsletter traces the PE industry’s origins to the 1980s junk bond boom and highlights the consequent similarities in the ‘business models’ involving leveraged buyouts. As a build up to the current issue, Stoller starts off with a riveting recap of the Michael Milken era of junk bond driven corporate raids even using the Goodfellas ‘bust-up’ model for analogy, something most of us back home in India would be far too familiar with – the promoter-banker-politician nexus which inevitably comes at the expense of shareholders, creditors and taxpayers.\r\n<em>“In 1993, economists George Akerloff and Paul Romer wrote a paper on the conjoined two crises of 1980s finance. The first was mass junk bond defaults late in the decade, and the second was the savings and loan crisis of deregulated banks going bankrupt en masse as they engaged in an orgy of self-dealing and speculation. The paper was called Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit, and in it, they described how financiers can profit by destroying corporations, using a particular strategy. “Our description of a looting strategy,” they wrote, “amounts to a sophisticated version of having a limited liability corporation borrow money, pay it into the private account of the owner, and then default on its debt.”</em>\r\n<em>What Akerloff and Romer were basically talking about was a legal version of the bust-out scene from Goodfellas. In that movie, mobsters took an ownership stake in a restaurant they often frequented, and then used the restaurant’s credit to buy liquor, which they would move out of the back and sell at half off. When the restaurant’s credit was all used up, they burned the restaurant to the ground to collect the insurance money. It was an intentional bankruptcy, a theft from creditors by those who had control of the restaurant and did not care what happened to the asset in the end.</em>\r\n<em>A bust-out requires the ability to borrow from someone, so that you can steal from the people lending you money. This is also true for its white collar cousin. So the trick, for both the mobsters, and the white collar looters described by Akerloff and Romer, is to find a way to borrow money. I’m reminded of this paper, and the bust-out scene in Goodfellas, because I’ve been trying to understand what is happening with private equity as the Coronavirus induces a massive, if short-lived, shock to our economy.”</em>\r\n<em>The reason I’m reminded of this paper is because private equity is a business created in part by junk bond takeover specialists in the 1980s, who were the topic of Akerloff’s and Romer’s paper. What’s interesting about junk bond specialists is that they had a more insidious plan than the mobsters in Goodfellas. Mobsters just stole from the bank, which did not know that the restaurant had become an object to be looted. But financiers of the 1980s actually captured control of the bank.</em>\r\n<em>Akerloff and Romer showed that both savings and loan executives and junk bond kings were making loans they knew could not be paid back, because they were often self-dealing. They would lend to entities in which they had a stake. And since they were lending money that was not theirs, they did not care if the loan went sour, as long as some of it got transferred to their own pockets. In other words, the best way to get a lender to lend you money is to put an agent in charge of the bank who doesn’t care if that money is paid back. Bill Black, a bank regulator in the 1980s, later wrote a book about this time with the memorable title: The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&amp;L Industry.</em>\r\n<em>…Between the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic, it had been smooth sailing for private equity firms, who had in turn gotten more and more aggressive. Pension fund investors have thrown more money at PE firms, and debt investors, hungry for anything with a return, have also gotten more hungry for higher yields. PE firms have even launched their own debt funds, meaning that they are both borrowing money to buy firms and lending money to support takeovers. Basically, there’s now an entire shadow banking system of private equity giants and their various captive institutions lending and borrowing from each other, and buying and selling each others’ companies.</em>\r\n<em>Private equity is undergoing what the great theorist Hyman Minsky pointed out is the Ponzi stage of the credit cycle in capitalist financial systems. This is the final stage before a blow-up. As Minsky observed, a period of placidity starts with firms borrowing money but being able to cover their borrowing with cash flow. Eventually, there’s more risk-taking until there’s a speculative frenzy, and firms can’t cover their debts with cash flow. They keep rolling over loans, and just hope that their assets keep going up in value so that they can sell assets to cover loans if necessary. To give an analogy, in 2006, when people in Las Vegas were flipping homes with no income, assuming that home values always went up, that was the Ponzi stage.</em>\r\n<em>Now, what happens with Ponzi financing is that at some point, nicknamed a “Minsky Moment,” the bubble pops, and there’s mass distress as asset values fall and credit is withdrawn. Selling assets isn’t enough to pay back loans, because asset prices have collapsed and there’s not enough cash flow to service the debt. Mass bankruptcies or bailouts, which are really both a restructuring of capital structures, are the result.</em>\r\n<em>I think you can see where I’m going with this. PE portfolio companies are heavily indebted, and they aren’t generating enough cash to service debts. The steady increase in asset values since 2009 has enabled funds to make tremendous gains because of the use of borrowed money. But now they are exposed to tremendous losses should there be any sort of disruption. And oh has this ever been a disruption. The coronavirus has exposed the entire sector.”</em>', 'Is Private Equity Having Its Minsky Moment?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3169-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:30:49', '2020-04-20 12:30:49', '', 3169, 'https://marcellus.in/3169-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3179, 1, '2020-04-20 12:34:52', '2020-04-20 12:34:52', 'Several of you might have wondered why some people are natural leaders – delegating tasks or ordering people about effortlessly – whilst others are unsure, hesitant wrecks. This contrast is especially startling when you see two people or comparable ability who perform very differently in leadership roles. The author says that part of the answer to this puzzle lies in nature (genes) and part in nurture: <em>“As with almost any aspect of human nature, some of the answer comes down to your genetically inherited disposition. If your parents were shrinking violets, the odds are increased that you will be too. But that’s far from the whole story. Increasingly, psychologists are realising the important part that early life experiences play. And key here is the way your parents behaved toward you.”</em>\r\nIn turns out that overly protective parents can damage their child’s leadership abilities: <em>“Colloquially, this parenting approach is known as ‘helicopter parenting’ in reference to the idea of hovering nearby whether needed or not.</em>\r\n<em>Your parents likely had good intentions, such as ensuring you didn’t face uncomfortable challenges. Unfortunately this might have had some inadvertent, unhelpful effects, including “making you less confident and less capable of facing difficulties, therefore [leading you to] exhibit poorer leadership skills”, says Dr Judith Locke, a clinical psychologist in private practice and visiting fellow at Queensland University of Technology.”</em>\r\nSo what exactly is “helicopter parenting”? According to Ms Locke, such parenting is characterised by three deadly traits (which we at Marcellus believe are found in most Indian households): <em>“…this is an approach being extremely responsive to the child, being extremely undemanding in some contexts, yet being highly demanding in others. For instance, a helicopter parent is likely to be overprotective, overly attentive and believe their child is always right. They will try to do everything for their child (rather than expecting the child to handle it themselves), and might expect their child’s peers and school to bend over backwards to accommodate their child’s needs too. At the same time, this kind of parent will be highly demanding, in the sense of having high expectations for their child’s achievements, overscheduling their child’s time and wanting their child to be their friend and in constant contact.”</em>\r\nAs with many cultural traits demonstrated by Indians, the Chinese too have their fair share of helicopter parents: <em>“The latest research on how this extreme coddling can stifle leadership skills comes from China. Psychologists surveyed nearly 1,500 teenagers – average age 14 – at 13 schools in Beijing. Yufang Bian at Beijing Normal University and her colleagues assessed the teenagers’ leadership potential comprehensively. First they quizzed the teenagers’ peers, teachers and parents to get a sense of whether they were seen by others as being a good leader. Second, they checked whether the teenagers were actually in any leadership roles, such as being a team leader in a class science group or a president in a student club.</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, the teenagers rated how much their parents had been overprotective by agreeing or disagreeing with statements such as ‘My parents supervised my every move growing up’ and ‘My parents often stepped in to solve life problems for me’. The teens also took quizzes measuring their self-esteem and how confident they felt about being a leader.</em>\r\n<em>…Bian and her team found a clear pattern. The more overprotective their parents, the less the teens were perceived as having leadership potential by others, and the less likely they were to actually be in leadership roles. Statistically, this link was explained by the fact that the teens with helicopter parents tended to have lower self-esteem, which in turn was associated with being less confident about being a leader.”</em>\r\nIn case you are now holding your head in your hands about what to do with you child, help is at hand from Ms Locke: <em>“Locke, who is also the author of The Bonsai Child (a parenting book to help parents develop their child’s potential by not overparenting), recommends beginning to take more control over your own life, including being more financially independent if you can, and avoiding the temptation to call your parents each time you have a problem.”</em>', 'What leader are you? It depends on your parents', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3167-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-20 12:34:52', '2020-04-20 12:34:52', '', 3167, 'https://marcellus.in/3167-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3218, 1, '2020-04-26 03:54:30', '2020-04-26 03:54:30', 'For anyone pursuing excellence in life or at work, Japan, its people and its society are an endless source of inspirational anecdotes. This BBC story reveals a side of Japan we had never heard about: very high stakes professional track cycling. It is called Keirin and it is a big deal in Japan: <em>“…in Japan, it\'s a £10bn industry, potentially lucrative for riders and fans alike as one of only four sports you can legally bet on. Its annual showpiece attracts more in wagers than is gambled over the entire British horse racing season.</em>\r\n<em>Keirin isn\'t just a sport in Japan. It goes deeper than that.”</em>\r\nKeirin cyclists have to go to a special school to train for many years: <em>“This is no ordinary school. This is keirin school, where just 10% of applicants are accepted. Only the very best get to come here.”</em>\r\nSir Chris Hoy, Britain’s six time Olympic gold winner, trained in such a school in Japan. He says <em>“\"It\'s a place of tradition which focuses on respect, self-control, and honesty, along with the knowledge necessary to be a professional keirin rider…It reflects Japanese culture…Everyone takes their job very seriously, they do it to the best of their ability and they do it the way they are told to do it.\"”</em>\r\nStructured like a monastery, keirin schools are where champions are trained both physically and mentally: <em>“Keirin school is part military academy, part training camp. The day starts at 6:30am with roll call and finishes at 10pm with lights out, for six days a week, 11 months of the year.</em>\r\n<em>In between, students have structured training and education sessions. Training could be on the bike, on foot or in the gym, while education sessions are both academic - studying tactics, theory and race rules in the classroom - and practical. Students also learn about bike mechanics in the workshop.</em>\r\n<em>Throw in meal times - students consume more than 1,000 calories at breakfast and 4,500 at dinner - cleaning responsibilities and extra exercise and there\'s very little time for anything else.</em>\r\n<em>Everyone wears the same uniform. There are televisions, but no mobile phones, no email access and certainly no social media. Students may call home once a week on a payphone.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, these schools allow a small number of elite foreign cyclists to come and train with them. Sir Chris Hoy was one of them.\r\nAnd then there is the business side of keirin: <em>“Established in 1948, keirin was created to boost income in Japan after the Second World War. More than 70 years on, there are 43 velodromes in the country and fans can watch keirin racing on 365 days of the year.</em>\r\n<em>\"In betting offices, cafes and bars, there are thousands of people watching each race,\" says Hoy.</em>\r\n<em>Top riders can earn more than £1m a year in prize money, with many continuing to compete into their 50s and 60s. Such is the scale of betting on racing that riders must abide by incredibly strict regulations.</em>\r\n<em>Riders must arrive at meets dressed smartly - and everyone must then surrender their mobile phone. No communication with the outside world is allowed over the entire event. Many take place over four days.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes riders will race only once in those days. It will mark their only chance to see daylight, to get some fresh air. For the rest of the meeting, they are cooped up inside, hidden from the rest of the world.</em>\r\n<em>It\'s on the first day that riders declare their tactics. Before every race, riders know their opponents\' exact plans in advance - who is planning to attack when, and who has got a target on their back.</em>\r\n<em>It makes for an intense experience, particularly when, for the entire duration of the race meeting, they only have each other for company.</em>\r\n<em>They sleep in a dormitory, some with beds, others with mats on the floor. They eat alongside each other, bathe alongside each other, warm-up alongside each other…”</em>\r\nJust as interesting are the post-race rituals that riders are meant to engage in: <em>“Winners are expected to hand out water to their opponents as a way of expressing thanks for a good race, while riders frequently hand out presents to one another.</em>\r\n<em>\"Respect is such a big part,\" says Truman.</em>\r\n<em>\"I\'ve got a box full of presents, four or five pairs of gloves, tyres...”</em>\r\nWhen one understands how Japanese society works, how its focuses on respect, on perfection, on dedication, one understands the roots needed to build a great society and a great country.', 'Keirin School: Inside the strict and secret world of bicycle racing in Japan', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', '3218', '', '', '2020-04-29 04:56:16', '2020-04-29 04:56:16', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3218', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3219, 1, '2020-04-29 04:55:28', '2020-04-29 04:55:28', '', '', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3218-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 04:55:28', '2020-04-29 04:55:28', '', 3218, 'https://marcellus.in/3218-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3220, 1, '2020-04-29 04:56:16', '2020-04-29 04:56:16', 'For anyone pursuing excellence in life or at work, Japan, its people and its society are an endless source of inspirational anecdotes. This BBC story reveals a side of Japan we had never heard about: very high stakes professional track cycling. It is called Keirin and it is a big deal in Japan: <em>“…in Japan, it\'s a £10bn industry, potentially lucrative for riders and fans alike as one of only four sports you can legally bet on. Its annual showpiece attracts more in wagers than is gambled over the entire British horse racing season.</em>\r\n<em>Keirin isn\'t just a sport in Japan. It goes deeper than that.”</em>\r\nKeirin cyclists have to go to a special school to train for many years: <em>“This is no ordinary school. This is keirin school, where just 10% of applicants are accepted. Only the very best get to come here.”</em>\r\nSir Chris Hoy, Britain’s six time Olympic gold winner, trained in such a school in Japan. He says <em>“\"It\'s a place of tradition which focuses on respect, self-control, and honesty, along with the knowledge necessary to be a professional keirin rider…It reflects Japanese culture…Everyone takes their job very seriously, they do it to the best of their ability and they do it the way they are told to do it.\"”</em>\r\nStructured like a monastery, keirin schools are where champions are trained both physically and mentally: <em>“Keirin school is part military academy, part training camp. The day starts at 6:30am with roll call and finishes at 10pm with lights out, for six days a week, 11 months of the year.</em>\r\n<em>In between, students have structured training and education sessions. Training could be on the bike, on foot or in the gym, while education sessions are both academic - studying tactics, theory and race rules in the classroom - and practical. Students also learn about bike mechanics in the workshop.</em>\r\n<em>Throw in meal times - students consume more than 1,000 calories at breakfast and 4,500 at dinner - cleaning responsibilities and extra exercise and there\'s very little time for anything else.</em>\r\n<em>Everyone wears the same uniform. There are televisions, but no mobile phones, no email access and certainly no social media. Students may call home once a week on a payphone.”</em>\r\nEven more interestingly, these schools allow a small number of elite foreign cyclists to come and train with them. Sir Chris Hoy was one of them.\r\nAnd then there is the business side of keirin: <em>“Established in 1948, keirin was created to boost income in Japan after the Second World War. More than 70 years on, there are 43 velodromes in the country and fans can watch keirin racing on 365 days of the year.</em>\r\n<em>\"In betting offices, cafes and bars, there are thousands of people watching each race,\" says Hoy.</em>\r\n<em>Top riders can earn more than £1m a year in prize money, with many continuing to compete into their 50s and 60s. Such is the scale of betting on racing that riders must abide by incredibly strict regulations.</em>\r\n<em>Riders must arrive at meets dressed smartly - and everyone must then surrender their mobile phone. No communication with the outside world is allowed over the entire event. Many take place over four days.</em>\r\n<em>Sometimes riders will race only once in those days. It will mark their only chance to see daylight, to get some fresh air. For the rest of the meeting, they are cooped up inside, hidden from the rest of the world.</em>\r\n<em>It\'s on the first day that riders declare their tactics. Before every race, riders know their opponents\' exact plans in advance - who is planning to attack when, and who has got a target on their back.</em>\r\n<em>It makes for an intense experience, particularly when, for the entire duration of the race meeting, they only have each other for company.</em>\r\n<em>They sleep in a dormitory, some with beds, others with mats on the floor. They eat alongside each other, bathe alongside each other, warm-up alongside each other…”</em>\r\nJust as interesting are the post-race rituals that riders are meant to engage in: <em>“Winners are expected to hand out water to their opponents as a way of expressing thanks for a good race, while riders frequently hand out presents to one another.</em>\r\n<em>\"Respect is such a big part,\" says Truman.</em>\r\n<em>\"I\'ve got a box full of presents, four or five pairs of gloves, tyres...”</em>\r\nWhen one understands how Japanese society works, how its focuses on respect, on perfection, on dedication, one understands the roots needed to build a great society and a great country.', 'Keirin School: Inside the strict and secret world of bicycle racing in Japan', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3218-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 04:56:16', '2020-04-29 04:56:16', '', 3218, 'https://marcellus.in/3218-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3221, 1, '2020-04-26 04:56:31', '2020-04-26 04:56:31', 'In the wake of Covid, many people have written “it is the end of the world as we know it” essays. This piece by John Gray is amongst the most ambitious, the most sweeping in its attempt to describe how the world will change post-Covid. Whilst we don’t necessarily subscribe to the viewpoint of most of these “turning point in history” essays, it is hard to disagree with Mr Gray’s key message: “<em>The era of peak globalisation is over.”</em>\r\nFirstly, it is clear that the insecurity created by Covid in Western countries about their dependence on imports in general and on China in particular will lead to a reset: <em>“…the hyperglobalisation of the last few decades is not coming back either. The virus has exposed fatal weaknesses in the economic system that was patched up after the 2008 financial crisis. Liberal capitalism is bust. …A situation in which so many of the world’s essential medical supplies originate in China – or any other single country – will not be tolerated. Production in these and other sensitive areas will be re-shored as a matter of national security. The notion that a country such as Britain could phase out farming and depend on imports for food will be dismissed as the nonsense it always has been.”</em>\r\nSecondly, many of us who used to secretly hate the endless amounts of air travel that we had to endure to promote our business interests will no longer willingly jump on to flights unless we are forced to: <em>“The airline industry will shrink as people travel less. Harder borders are going to be an enduring feature of the global landscape….A way of life driven by unceasing mobility is shuddering to a stop. Our lives are going to be more physically constrained and more virtual than they were. A more fragmented world is coming into being that in some ways may be more resilient.”</em>\r\nThirdly, countries – rich and poor – will be forced to invest in healthcare because now rich taxpayers realise that they can’t bathe in champagne whilst paying low taxes whilst the rest of the population lives in hovels and has low/no access to healthcare: <em>“The once formidable British state is being rapidly reinvented, and on a scale not seen before. Acting with emergency powers authorised by parliament, the government has tossed economic orthodoxy to the winds. Savaged by years of imbecilic austerity, the NHS – like the armed forces, police, prisons, fire service, care workers and cleaners – has its back to the wall. But with the noble dedication of its workers, the virus will be held at bay…”</em>\r\nMr Gray also poses two very interesting questions regarding our future. Firstly, how will the role of the state change in the post-Covid world? His view: <em>“With all its talk of freedom and choice, liberalism was in practice the experiment of dissolving traditional sources of social cohesion and political legitimacy and replacing them with the promise of rising material living standards. This experiment has now run its course. Suppressing the virus necessitates an economic shutdown that can only be temporary, but when the economy restarts, it will be in a world where governments act to curb the global market…If the limits of growth are eventually accepted, it will be because governments make the protection of their citizens their most important objective….”</em>\r\nSecondly, will the balance of power between nations change in the post-Covid world? <em>“China’s position is more complex. Given its record of cover-ups and opaque statistics, its performance during the pandemic is hard to assess…The virus has provided a rationale for expanding the surveillance state and introducing even stronger political control. Instead of wasting the crisis, Xi is using it to expand the country’s influence. China is inserting itself in place of the EU by assisting distressed national governments, such as Italy…</em>\r\n<em>The EU’s fundamental flaw is that it is incapable of discharging the protective functions of a state. The break-up of the eurozone has been predicted so often that it may seem unthinkable. Yet under the stresses they face today, the disintegration of European institutions is not unrealistic….</em>\r\n<em>An increasing influence on the EU will come from Russia. In the struggle with the Saudis that triggered the oil price collapse in March 2020, Putin has played the stronger hand. Whereas for the Saudis the fiscal break-even level – the price needed to pay for public services and keep the state solvent – is around $80 a barrel, for Russia it may be less than half that. At the same time Putin is consolidating Russia’s position as an energy power. The Nord Stream offshore pipelines that run through the Baltics secure reliable supplies of natural gas to Europe. By the same token they lock Europe into dependency on Russia …</em>\r\n<em>In the US, Donald Trump plainly considers refloating the economy more important than containing the virus….Unlike the British programme, Trump’s $2trn stimulus plan is mostly another corporate bailout. Yet if polls are to be believed increasing numbers of Americans approve of his handling of the epidemic…Whether or not he retains his hold on power, the US’s position in the world has changed irreversibly.”</em>', 'Why this crisis is a turning point in history', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-this-crisis-is-a-turning-point-in-history', '', '', '2020-04-29 04:59:54', '2020-04-29 04:59:54', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3221', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3222, 1, '2020-04-29 04:59:54', '2020-04-29 04:59:54', 'In the wake of Covid, many people have written “it is the end of the world as we know it” essays. This piece by John Gray is amongst the most ambitious, the most sweeping in its attempt to describe how the world will change post-Covid. Whilst we don’t necessarily subscribe to the viewpoint of most of these “turning point in history” essays, it is hard to disagree with Mr Gray’s key message: “<em>The era of peak globalisation is over.”</em>\r\nFirstly, it is clear that the insecurity created by Covid in Western countries about their dependence on imports in general and on China in particular will lead to a reset: <em>“…the hyperglobalisation of the last few decades is not coming back either. The virus has exposed fatal weaknesses in the economic system that was patched up after the 2008 financial crisis. Liberal capitalism is bust. …A situation in which so many of the world’s essential medical supplies originate in China – or any other single country – will not be tolerated. Production in these and other sensitive areas will be re-shored as a matter of national security. The notion that a country such as Britain could phase out farming and depend on imports for food will be dismissed as the nonsense it always has been.”</em>\r\nSecondly, many of us who used to secretly hate the endless amounts of air travel that we had to endure to promote our business interests will no longer willingly jump on to flights unless we are forced to: <em>“The airline industry will shrink as people travel less. Harder borders are going to be an enduring feature of the global landscape….A way of life driven by unceasing mobility is shuddering to a stop. Our lives are going to be more physically constrained and more virtual than they were. A more fragmented world is coming into being that in some ways may be more resilient.”</em>\r\nThirdly, countries – rich and poor – will be forced to invest in healthcare because now rich taxpayers realise that they can’t bathe in champagne whilst paying low taxes whilst the rest of the population lives in hovels and has low/no access to healthcare: <em>“The once formidable British state is being rapidly reinvented, and on a scale not seen before. Acting with emergency powers authorised by parliament, the government has tossed economic orthodoxy to the winds. Savaged by years of imbecilic austerity, the NHS – like the armed forces, police, prisons, fire service, care workers and cleaners – has its back to the wall. But with the noble dedication of its workers, the virus will be held at bay…”</em>\r\nMr Gray also poses two very interesting questions regarding our future. Firstly, how will the role of the state change in the post-Covid world? His view: <em>“With all its talk of freedom and choice, liberalism was in practice the experiment of dissolving traditional sources of social cohesion and political legitimacy and replacing them with the promise of rising material living standards. This experiment has now run its course. Suppressing the virus necessitates an economic shutdown that can only be temporary, but when the economy restarts, it will be in a world where governments act to curb the global market…If the limits of growth are eventually accepted, it will be because governments make the protection of their citizens their most important objective….”</em>\r\nSecondly, will the balance of power between nations change in the post-Covid world? <em>“China’s position is more complex. Given its record of cover-ups and opaque statistics, its performance during the pandemic is hard to assess…The virus has provided a rationale for expanding the surveillance state and introducing even stronger political control. Instead of wasting the crisis, Xi is using it to expand the country’s influence. China is inserting itself in place of the EU by assisting distressed national governments, such as Italy…</em>\r\n<em>The EU’s fundamental flaw is that it is incapable of discharging the protective functions of a state. The break-up of the eurozone has been predicted so often that it may seem unthinkable. Yet under the stresses they face today, the disintegration of European institutions is not unrealistic….</em>\r\n<em>An increasing influence on the EU will come from Russia. In the struggle with the Saudis that triggered the oil price collapse in March 2020, Putin has played the stronger hand. Whereas for the Saudis the fiscal break-even level – the price needed to pay for public services and keep the state solvent – is around $80 a barrel, for Russia it may be less than half that. At the same time Putin is consolidating Russia’s position as an energy power. The Nord Stream offshore pipelines that run through the Baltics secure reliable supplies of natural gas to Europe. By the same token they lock Europe into dependency on Russia …</em>\r\n<em>In the US, Donald Trump plainly considers refloating the economy more important than containing the virus….Unlike the British programme, Trump’s $2trn stimulus plan is mostly another corporate bailout. Yet if polls are to be believed increasing numbers of Americans approve of his handling of the epidemic…Whether or not he retains his hold on power, the US’s position in the world has changed irreversibly.”</em>', 'Why this crisis is a turning point in history', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3221-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 04:59:54', '2020-04-29 04:59:54', '', 3221, 'https://marcellus.in/3221-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3223, 1, '2020-04-26 04:59:59', '2020-04-26 04:59:59', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3223', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3224, 1, '2020-04-29 05:32:35', '2020-04-29 05:32:35', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3223-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:32:35', '2020-04-29 05:32:35', '', 3223, 'https://marcellus.in/3223-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3225, 1, '2020-04-26 05:33:00', '2020-04-26 05:33:00', 'Marc Andreessen, perhaps ranks right up there with a Bill Gates or a Steve Jobs in terms of having an impact on humanity in the digital age. Andreessen is best known as the founder of Netscape, the company that gave the world the tool to make the best of the internet – the browser. He later on went on to found the iconoclastic venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz with the purpose of seeding entrepreneurs who would ‘put a dent to the universe’ – his early investments include Facebook and Twitter. This blog of his is effectively a provocative rant at how America’s failure ‘to build’ despite all its resources has resulted in it becoming the epicentre for Covid. In some ways, he does allude to how all the money printing over the past decade has gone towards inflating financial assets as opposed to building assets in the real economy. Andreessen in particular calls for building of social infrastructure - housing, education and healthcare at a scale that America is certainly capable of – much like how its build its physical infrastructure such as railroads and freeways.\r\n<em>“…the problem is what we didn’t *do* in advance, and what we’re failing to do now. And that is a failure of action, and specifically our widespread inability to *build*.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>We see this today with the things we urgently need but don’t have. We don’t have enough coronavirus tests, or test materials — including, amazingly, cotton swabs and common reagents. We don’t have enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms, and ICU beds. And we don’t have enough surgical masks, eye shields, and medical gowns — as I write this, New York City has put out a desperate call for rain ponchos to be used as medical gowns. Rain ponchos! In 2020! In America!</em>\r\n<em>…In the U.S., we don’t even have the ability to get federal bailout money to the people and businesses that need it. Tens of millions of laid off workers and their families, and many millions of small businesses, are in serious trouble *right now*, and we have no direct method to transfer them money without potentially disastrous delays. A government that collects money from all its citizens and businesses each year has never built a system to distribute money to us when it’s needed most.</em>\r\n<em>..You see it in housing and the physical footprint of our cities. We can’t build nearly enough housing in our cities with surging economic potential — which results in crazily skyrocketing housing prices in places like San Francisco, making it nearly impossible for regular people to move in and take the jobs of the future.</em>\r\n<em>…You see it in education. We have top-end universities, yes, but with the capacity to teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18 year olds in the U.S. each year, or the 120 million new 18 year olds in the world each year. Why not educate every 18 year old? Isn’t that the most important thing we can possibly do? Why not build a far larger number of universities, or scale the ones we have way up?</em>\r\n<em>…You see it in manufacturing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, American manufacturing output is higher than ever, but why has so much manufacturing been offshored to places with cheaper manual labor? We know how to build highly automated factories. We know the enormous number of higher paying jobs we would create to design and build and operate those factories. We know — and we’re experiencing right now! — the strategic problem of relying on offshore manufacturing of key goods. Why aren’t we building Elon Musk’s “alien dreadnoughts” — giant, gleaming, state of the art factories producing every conceivable kind of product, at the highest possible quality and lowest possible cost — all throughout our country?</em>\r\n<em>..Is the problem money? That seems hard to believe when we have the money to wage endless wars in the Middle East and repeatedly bail out incumbent banks, airlines, and carmakers. The federal government just passed a $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package in two weeks! Is the problem capitalism? I’m with Nicholas Stern when he says that capitalism is how we take care of people we don’t know — all of these fields are highly lucrative already and should be prime stomping grounds for capitalist investment, good both for the investor and the customers who are served. Is the problem technical competence? Clearly not, or we wouldn’t have the homes and skyscrapers, schools and hospitals, cars and trains, computers and smartphones, that we already have.”</em>', 'It\'s time to build', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'its-time-to-build', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:37:41', '2020-04-29 05:37:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3225', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3226, 1, '2020-04-29 05:37:41', '2020-04-29 05:37:41', 'Marc Andreessen, perhaps ranks right up there with a Bill Gates or a Steve Jobs in terms of having an impact on humanity in the digital age. Andreessen is best known as the founder of Netscape, the company that gave the world the tool to make the best of the internet – the browser. He later on went on to found the iconoclastic venture capital firm, Andreessen Horowitz with the purpose of seeding entrepreneurs who would ‘put a dent to the universe’ – his early investments include Facebook and Twitter. This blog of his is effectively a provocative rant at how America’s failure ‘to build’ despite all its resources has resulted in it becoming the epicentre for Covid. In some ways, he does allude to how all the money printing over the past decade has gone towards inflating financial assets as opposed to building assets in the real economy. Andreessen in particular calls for building of social infrastructure - housing, education and healthcare at a scale that America is certainly capable of – much like how its build its physical infrastructure such as railroads and freeways.\r\n<em>“…the problem is what we didn’t *do* in advance, and what we’re failing to do now. And that is a failure of action, and specifically our widespread inability to *build*.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>We see this today with the things we urgently need but don’t have. We don’t have enough coronavirus tests, or test materials — including, amazingly, cotton swabs and common reagents. We don’t have enough ventilators, negative pressure rooms, and ICU beds. And we don’t have enough surgical masks, eye shields, and medical gowns — as I write this, New York City has put out a desperate call for rain ponchos to be used as medical gowns. Rain ponchos! In 2020! In America!</em>\r\n<em>…In the U.S., we don’t even have the ability to get federal bailout money to the people and businesses that need it. Tens of millions of laid off workers and their families, and many millions of small businesses, are in serious trouble *right now*, and we have no direct method to transfer them money without potentially disastrous delays. A government that collects money from all its citizens and businesses each year has never built a system to distribute money to us when it’s needed most.</em>\r\n<em>..You see it in housing and the physical footprint of our cities. We can’t build nearly enough housing in our cities with surging economic potential — which results in crazily skyrocketing housing prices in places like San Francisco, making it nearly impossible for regular people to move in and take the jobs of the future.</em>\r\n<em>…You see it in education. We have top-end universities, yes, but with the capacity to teach only a microscopic percentage of the 4 million new 18 year olds in the U.S. each year, or the 120 million new 18 year olds in the world each year. Why not educate every 18 year old? Isn’t that the most important thing we can possibly do? Why not build a far larger number of universities, or scale the ones we have way up?</em>\r\n<em>…You see it in manufacturing. Contrary to conventional wisdom, American manufacturing output is higher than ever, but why has so much manufacturing been offshored to places with cheaper manual labor? We know how to build highly automated factories. We know the enormous number of higher paying jobs we would create to design and build and operate those factories. We know — and we’re experiencing right now! — the strategic problem of relying on offshore manufacturing of key goods. Why aren’t we building Elon Musk’s “alien dreadnoughts” — giant, gleaming, state of the art factories producing every conceivable kind of product, at the highest possible quality and lowest possible cost — all throughout our country?</em>\r\n<em>..Is the problem money? That seems hard to believe when we have the money to wage endless wars in the Middle East and repeatedly bail out incumbent banks, airlines, and carmakers. The federal government just passed a $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package in two weeks! Is the problem capitalism? I’m with Nicholas Stern when he says that capitalism is how we take care of people we don’t know — all of these fields are highly lucrative already and should be prime stomping grounds for capitalist investment, good both for the investor and the customers who are served. Is the problem technical competence? Clearly not, or we wouldn’t have the homes and skyscrapers, schools and hospitals, cars and trains, computers and smartphones, that we already have.”</em>', 'It\'s time to build', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3225-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:37:41', '2020-04-29 05:37:41', '', 3225, 'https://marcellus.in/3225-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3227, 1, '2020-04-26 05:37:49', '2020-04-26 05:37:49', 'We have often found that CEOs who build great businesses tend to have utmost respect for their competition. In what promises to be the mother of all rivalries, the crowded video streaming industry features the punch up between perhaps the greatest entertainment company ever - Disney versus perhaps the greatest disruptor of all time – Netflix. Or in this case, have the roles of the incumbent and disruptor reversed? Disney announced earlier this month that they have mopped up more than 50m subscribers for its recently launcehd streaming service Disney+, clearly posing a threat to Netflix’s dominance. Netflix itself reported a substantial rise in subscribers (helped by the lockdown) to 189m. Here’s what Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder and CEO had to say about Disney in last week’s earnings call:\r\n<em>“Over 20 years of watching different businesses -- incumbents like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies -- I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it…To see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hat’s off to them…Great execution, clarity around brand and focus really makes a difference.”</em>\r\n<em>Hastings is one of the world’s experts on disruption, having successfully defeated Blockbuster and the video rental business with a novel mail-DVD service before upending the traditional pay-TV ecosystem with lower priced streaming video. Netflix announced today it had 183 million global customers, up 15 million subscribers in the first quarter.</em>\r\n<em>While incumbents often struggle to transform their businesses, a topic detailed in Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” Hastings’s Netflix has graduated from disrupter to top dog as streaming has become more ubiquitous. He said Netflix would continue to focus on its own service rather than the competition because “there’s nothing we can do about them.”</em>', 'Disney+ has a big fan: Netflix CEO Reed Hastings', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'disney-has-a-big-fan-netflix-ceo-reed-hastings', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:39:05', '2020-04-29 05:39:05', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3227', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3228, 1, '2020-04-29 05:39:05', '2020-04-29 05:39:05', 'We have often found that CEOs who build great businesses tend to have utmost respect for their competition. In what promises to be the mother of all rivalries, the crowded video streaming industry features the punch up between perhaps the greatest entertainment company ever - Disney versus perhaps the greatest disruptor of all time – Netflix. Or in this case, have the roles of the incumbent and disruptor reversed? Disney announced earlier this month that they have mopped up more than 50m subscribers for its recently launcehd streaming service Disney+, clearly posing a threat to Netflix’s dominance. Netflix itself reported a substantial rise in subscribers (helped by the lockdown) to 189m. Here’s what Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder and CEO had to say about Disney in last week’s earnings call:\r\n<em>“Over 20 years of watching different businesses -- incumbents like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies -- I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it…To see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hat’s off to them…Great execution, clarity around brand and focus really makes a difference.”</em>\r\n<em>Hastings is one of the world’s experts on disruption, having successfully defeated Blockbuster and the video rental business with a novel mail-DVD service before upending the traditional pay-TV ecosystem with lower priced streaming video. Netflix announced today it had 183 million global customers, up 15 million subscribers in the first quarter.</em>\r\n<em>While incumbents often struggle to transform their businesses, a topic detailed in Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” Hastings’s Netflix has graduated from disrupter to top dog as streaming has become more ubiquitous. He said Netflix would continue to focus on its own service rather than the competition because “there’s nothing we can do about them.”</em>', 'Disney+ has a big fan: Netflix CEO Reed Hastings', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3227-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:39:05', '2020-04-29 05:39:05', '', 3227, 'https://marcellus.in/3227-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3229, 1, '2020-04-29 05:39:09', '2020-04-29 05:39:09', 'We have often found that CEOs who build great businesses tend to have utmost respect for their competition. In what promises to be the mother of all rivalries, the crowded video streaming industry features the punch up between perhaps the greatest entertainment company ever - Disney versus perhaps the greatest disruptor of all time – Netflix. Or in this case, have the roles of the incumbent and disruptor reversed? Disney announced earlier this month that they have mopped up more than 50m subscribers for its recently launcehd streaming service Disney+, clearly posing a threat to Netflix’s dominance. Netflix itself reported a substantial rise in subscribers (helped by the lockdown) to 189m. Here’s what Reed Hastings, Netflix’s co-founder and CEO had to say about Disney in last week’s earnings call:\n<em>“Over 20 years of watching different businesses -- incumbents like Blockbuster and Walmart and all these companies -- I’ve never seen such a good execution of the incumbent learning the new way and mastering it…To see both the execution and the numbers line up, my hat’s off to them…Great execution, clarity around brand and focus really makes a difference.”</em>\n<em>Hastings is one of the world’s experts on disruption, having successfully defeated Blockbuster and the video rental business with a novel mail-DVD service before upending the traditional pay-TV ecosystem with lower priced streaming video. Netflix announced today it had 183 million global customers, up 15 million subscribers in the first quarter.</em>\n<em>While incumbents often struggle to transform their businesses, a topic detailed in Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” Hastings’s Netflix has graduated from disrupter to top dog as streaming has become more ubiquitous. He said Netflix would continue to focus on its own service rather than the competition because “there’s nothing we can do about them.”</em>', 'Disney+ has a big fan: Netflix CEO Reed Hastings', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3227-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:39:09', '2020-04-29 05:39:09', '', 3227, 'https://marcellus.in/3227-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3230, 1, '2020-04-26 05:39:21', '2020-04-26 05:39:21', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-a-pandemic-affects-mental-health', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:09:08', '2020-04-29 06:09:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3230', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3231, 1, '2020-04-29 05:41:27', '2020-04-29 05:41:27', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3230-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:41:27', '2020-04-29 05:41:27', '', 3230, 'https://marcellus.in/3230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3232, 1, '2020-04-29 05:50:20', '2020-04-29 05:50:20', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3230-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:50:20', '2020-04-29 05:50:20', '', 3230, 'https://marcellus.in/3230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3233, 1, '2020-04-29 05:56:36', '2020-04-29 05:56:36', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3230-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:56:36', '2020-04-29 05:56:36', '', 3230, 'https://marcellus.in/3230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3234, 1, '2020-04-29 05:59:21', '2020-04-29 05:59:21', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3230-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 05:59:21', '2020-04-29 05:59:21', '', 3230, 'https://marcellus.in/3230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3235, 1, '2020-04-29 06:02:07', '2020-04-29 06:02:07', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3223-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:02:07', '2020-04-29 06:02:07', '', 3223, 'https://marcellus.in/3223-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3236, 1, '2020-04-29 06:04:00', '2020-04-29 06:04:00', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3223-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:04:00', '2020-04-29 06:04:00', '', 3223, 'https://marcellus.in/3223-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3237, 1, '2020-04-29 06:05:18', '2020-04-29 06:05:18', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3223-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:05:18', '2020-04-29 06:05:18', '', 3223, 'https://marcellus.in/3223-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3238, 1, '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '<div>With the number of daily new cases plateauing if not declining, some people are questioning all those models which predicted millions of deaths and therefore our understanding of the threat from this virus. Some others on the other hand are attributing the decline to the lockdowns and other similar measures. This blog by Peter Attia, who runs a medical practice, is about how the truth, like always, lies in the middle i.e, both arguments are partially valid. Whilst highlighting the limitations of models and their ability to predict with accuracy, Peter argues why we shouldn’t be debunking models either, instead use them as tools to help us a find a way forward by refining the inputs into the model as our understanding improves.\r\n<em>“Today I suspect American fatalities from COVID-19 will be more in line with a very bad, perhaps the worst, season of influenza (The last decade saw flu deaths in the U.S. range from 12,000 to 61,000, so you can imagine how much variability exists). This suggests COVID-19 will kill tens of thousands in the U.S. this year, but likely not hundreds of thousands, and definitely not millions, as previously predicted.</em>\r\n<em>What accounts for my different outlook today? There are really only two first-order explanations for why I can say the early projections were incorrect:</em></div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>Either the models were wrong because they incorrectly assigned properties about the biology of the virus pertaining to its lethality and/or ability to spread, or</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>The models were correct, but as a society we changed our behavior enough in response to the threat of the virus to alter the outcome. In other words, the models were correct in assuming R_0 was high (north of 2.25 and in some estimates as high as 3), but aggressive measures of social distancing reduced R_0 to &lt;1, thereby stopping the spread of the virus, despite its lethal nature.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>It is, of course, most likely to be a combination of these two conditions.”</em>\r\nHow much of each? Peter goes on to suggest a way of figuring it out.\r\n<em>“…find out (via blood testing for antibodies) how many people were already infected that weren’t captured as “confirmed cases.”...we should test as large a cross-section of the asymptomatic NYC population as possible, and extrapolate from the results.</em>\r\n<em>These data are enormously important. If 5% of asymptomatic persons in NYC have been infected, while 95% have not, it would imply the IFR (Infected fatality rate) for COVID-19 is approximately 2.4%. This is a deadly virus, approximately 25x more deadly than seasonal influenza in NYC. It would also imply that efforts to contain the spread have been effective and/or the R_0 of the virus (the reproduction number) is much lower than has been estimated (2.2 to 2.6).</em>\r\n<em>Conversely, if the asymptomatic prevalence in NYC is, say, 30%, it would imply that the IFR for COVID-19 is approximately 0.4%. This is a far less deadly virus than previously suggested, although still approximately 4x more deadly than influenza in NYC.3 It also implies that the disease is far more widespread than previously suggested. If 30 percent of New Yorkers have been infected, then efforts to prevent its spread have not been very successful, but NYC is approaching herd immunity..</em>\r\n<em>…</em> <em>The sooner we know how the virus behaved in the most hard-hit city in the country (and likely the world), the sooner we can start making better decisions with at least some modicum of confidence, versus blind certainty in models that don’t have the humility to incorporate a margin of error or degree of uncertainty.</em>\r\n<em>Testing broadly, especially asymptomatic people, to better estimate the true fatality rate is an essential part of any strategy to move forward. Doing so, especially if we can add more elaborate tools for contact tracing, can give us real data on the most important properties of the virus: how rapidly it spreads and how harmful it is to all people, not just the ones we already know about. And that data, in turn, will help us build better and more accurate models.</em>\r\n<em>But we shouldn’t look at models to give us the “answers.” How many people will be hospitalized, how many people will die, and so on. That’s our natural, lazy inclination. Instead we should look to the models to show us how to change the answers. That’s why they are important, and why it is so important that those models a) accept uncertainty, and b) are based on the best data we can obtain. The model is not a prophet. It is simply a tool to help us understand the biology of what is happening, and to help us figure out what we have to do next.</em>\r\n<em>Go back in time to March 1: Knowing what we knew then, quarantine and extreme social distancing was absolutely the right thing to do because we didn’t even know what we didn’t know, and we needed to slow the clock down. It was like taking a timeout early in the first quarter after your opponent has just scored two lightning touchdowns in a rapid succession. It may have seemed unnecessary to some, but we needed to figure out what was going on.</em>\r\n<em>The mistake was not taking the timeout. The mistake was not using our timeout to better understand our opponent. We failed to scale up testing and gather the essential information outlined here that would have helped us create better, more nuanced and hopefully more accurate models, rather than having to essentially guess at our data inputs (and hence at the outcomes). Now, six weeks later, we are still in the dark because we didn’t do the broad testing that we should have done back then. We still don’t know fully how many people contract this virus and come out relatively unscathed.</em>\r\n<em>We still have time to reduce the health and economic damage done by this virus and our response to it, but we can’t waste another timeout sitting around looking at each other and guessing.”</em></div>', 'COVID-19: What’s wrong with the models?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3223-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '2020-04-29 06:07:03', '', 3223, 'https://marcellus.in/3223-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3239, 1, '2020-04-29 06:09:08', '2020-04-29 06:09:08', 'Much has been written about the rise of mental illnesses caused by the fear of pandemic and exacerbated by the depressing effects of a lockdown. But this piece by Utkarsh Amitabh hits the nail on the head by highlighting common issues that most of us can relate to and hopefully can do a better job dealing with them. Utkarsh highlights five issues and their remedies:\r\n<em>“First, limit news consumption and be wary of misinformation. Brooks’ research suggests that more information does not mean reliable information. Social media forwards, quack cures and unverified statistics serve no purpose beyond democratizing fear.</em>\r\n<em>Second, connect with friends both old and new. While the number of Skype, Teams and Zoom calls have gone up exponentially, we should keep in mind that more calls do not automatically mean better conversations. Like panic scrolling and panic working, people are also panic calling. To be able to meaningful and fun conversations, we need to nudge ourselves to talk beyond the havoc caused by the virus.</em>\r\n<em>Third, preempt burnout. As boundaries between work and leisure blur, we get used to being in a prolonged state of exhaustion. Our concentration suffers, creativity falls and output becomes erratic. Burnout isn’t just about the number of hours we work. It is about losing control over what we work on, when we work and what our work leads to, our overall impact.</em>\r\n<em>Being burnt out will make matters worse for us and our organizations. Taking time out for self-care and digital detox will help us brave this crisis.</em>\r\n<em>Fourth and most important, cultivate what Viktor Frankl, the Holocaust survivor and psychiatrist from Vienna, calls “tragic optimism\". Tragic optimism is an acquired skill to maintain hope and find meaning in life despite its inescapable pain, loss and suffering. He says that we all have the capacity to creatively turn life’s negative aspects into something positive or constructive.</em>\r\n<em>During times of crises, we need something to look up to and something to look forward to. Frankl kept looking forward to reuniting with his lover. That hope kept him alive and transformed his suffering to some extent.</em>\r\n<em>Fifth, let’s stop trying to be happy all the time. Happiness cannot be pursued, it must ensue. Meaning, on the other hand, can be created. There are four pillars of meaning: purpose, belonging, transcendence and storytelling (the story we tell ourselves). Crises like the one we find ourselves in is an opportunity to abandon our wanton search for happiness and relentlessly pursue meaning.”</em>', 'How a pandemic affects mental health', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3230-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-04-29 06:09:08', '2020-04-29 06:09:08', '', 3230, 'https://marcellus.in/3230-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3279, 1, '2020-05-01 09:39:51', '2020-05-01 09:39:51', '<strong>The frequency of disruptions faced by businesses has been rising over the past three decades. While most of these disruptions have been around technology, an event like Covid-19 will also be added to this list. While such events can potentially topple market leaders, Consistent Compounders use these events to disrupt their competitors. Key characteristics which allow Consistent Compounders to do so include: a) lack of complacency / lethargy; b) capital allocation to innovation; c) focus on systems &amp; processes / tech investments; d) superior employee culture; and e) control on customers, distribution partners and manufacturing processes. Instead of speculating on who will be the leading stock/sector in this rally, we continue to follow the ‘low risk route to stupendous wealth’ with Consistent Compounders. In this newsletter, we have used one of our portfolio companies – Asian Paints - as a case study of potential disruption due to Covid-19.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 30<sup>th</sup> April 2020</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3281 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"885\" height=\"519\" />\r\n\r\nThe ongoing Covid-19 crisis and the associated lockdowns are likely to change some aspects of our lives as well as several businesses. Hence, it is logical for an investor in Marcellus’ Consistent Compounders PMS (CCP PMS) to ask the following question –\r\n\r\n<em>“Thanks to Covid-19, the way we lived the last 10 years might be totally different from the way we will live the next 10 years. Hence, why would companies that won the business battles of the last 10 years continue to be the companies that will win business battles in future? And hence why would the Consistent Compounders philosophy (which delivered healthy returns in the past) continue to deliver healthy returns in the future?”</em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Several great firms systematically slide to mediocrity…</strong>\r\n\r\nLet us start with some data which supports the phrase ‘nothing lasts forever’. The Nifty50 Index churns by around 50% every decade. Hence, if a stock is in Nifty50 Index today, there is a 50% probability that it will NOT be in the index 10 years from now, and 75% probability that it will not be in the index 20 years from now. The tendency for large, successful companies to slide down the market cap spectrum is not confined to Nifty50. In most developed and emerging markets globally, 25-40% of the Index of large companies churns every decade. Firms like Polaroid and Xerox, once considered to be great companies, got disrupted over time.\r\n\r\nSome of the reasons for destruction of greatness include: a) disruption of the product / service due to evolving technology or changing consumer habits; b) disruption of the distribution channel / marketing / supply chains; c) capital misallocation decisions by the company; d) change in management team or promoters of the firm; and e) drop in focus / rigor of the management team due to complacency or lethargy.\r\n\r\n<strong>… while some great firms sustain greatness through evolutions and disruptions</strong>\r\n\r\nConsider the chart below – Asian Paints has sustained greatness (healthy growth and ROCE) and leadership in the paints industry for over seven decades now. These seven decades have included several events /phases of disruptions and evolutions in the external and internal environment that Asian Paints has faced – including the exit of Champaklal Choksey in 1997, one the four founders and the biggest contributor towards the DNA of Asian Paints (until that point). However, even in the post-Choksey era, Asian Paints continued to strengthen its dominance of the sector as well as its ROCE.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3280\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"897\" height=\"458\" />\r\n\r\nThere are several other such companies in our portfolio – for instance, Pidilite has dominated the adhesives industry with ROCEs above 20% for more than four decades. HDFC Bank has dominated retail banking for over two decades now with 17-19% ROEs. Nestle India has dominated the infant foods and noodles space for over three decades with ROCEs higher than 40%.\r\n\r\nNote: Our definition of greatness is not limited to dominant market share. There have been several firms in sectors such as airlines and telecom in India which have retained market leadership for 10-20 years in a row. Despite such dominance, the free cash flows (i.e. ROCE in excess of cost of capital) and earnings growth of these firms have been non-existent inspite of high market share.\r\n\r\n<strong>A framework to pick leaders whose leadership will not be disrupted in the aftermath of Covid-19</strong>\r\n\r\nThere is a distinct possibility that Covid-19 will change many aspects of businesses &amp; lifestyle. For instance, products and services in categories like travel &amp; entertainment could get substituted by new ones. Customers might change the way they wish to interact with the product which could disrupt traditional ways of marketing and last-mile distribution. Similarly, supply chains, manufacturing processes, office infrastructure, etc could change in a few industries. Such disruptions / evolutions have already been impacting businesses with an increasing frequency over the past few decades, and Covid-19 could accelerate them further. We do not have the ability to foresee exactly how an industry or business or customer is likely to transition in future. <strong>Searching for companies that will disrupt an incumbent is an approach that is full of speculation and hence risk. Given our philosophy of crushing risk in our portfolio, we prefer to focus on existing leaders who are likely to disrupt / innovate in their businesses to ensure that their leadership cannot be challenged by a competitor.</strong>\r\n\r\nThe following simple framework can help filter out such likely winners from the ongoing crisis:\r\n\r\n<strong>Focus on product categories which cannot be substituted easily</strong>: Big ticket, discretionary and aspirational categories of consumption could be substituted more easily compared to small ticket, day-to-day essential products / services. Almost all products and services offered by Marcellus’ CCP constituents are small-ticket day to day essentials which can neither be cancelled in demand, nor can they be easily substituted by alternate products and services. There are <u>no substitutes</u> before or after Covid-19 for baby milk products, packaged foods, footwear, innerwear, cough syrups / pain killers / other OTC drugs, paints, adhesives, or small ticket retail lending. However, there can be disruptions which will redefine a winner in these products &amp; services. Let us delve deeper into this point.\r\n\r\n<strong>Focus on companies whose DNA is to disrupt rather than get disrupted</strong>: Incumbents who are in a market leadership position before a crisis like Covid-19, are best positioned to innovate amidst disruption <em><u>provided</u></em> they have a combination of the following characteristics in their business:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Lack of complacency / lethargy: </strong><em>“Loss of focus is what most worries Charlie (Munger) and me when we contemplate investing in businesses that in general look outstanding. All too often, we have seen value stagnate in the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of managers to wander.” – Warren Buffett’s 1996 annual letter to shareholders.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\nMost instances of disruption arise from either the leader missing out on the evolution of the business environment around him or the leader misallocating capital as he grows the business. A single-minded focus on the company’s business and its capital allocation are core virtues possessed by leaders who deliver long-term success through several decades.\r\n<ol start=\"2\">\r\n 	<li><strong>High ROCEs and hence the ability to invest surplus capital towards innovation: </strong>To begin with, greater operating efficiencies and high ROCEs are an <em>outcome</em> of strong competitive advantages that a firm possesses. More importantly, high ROCEs also provide a fountain of free cash flow that is available for reinvestment. In the normal course of business, this reinvestment can either go towards expanding manufacturing capacities or paying dividends to shareholders. However, a leader with the DNA to disrupt also consistently invests some of this surplus cash flow towards initiatives which can help disrupt the competition.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Superior systems and processes / tech investments: </strong>An event like Covid-19 will certainly favour companies with greater process automation and better tech investments in areas of raw material procurement, manufacturing, demand forecasting and supply chain management. The lower the reliance on <em>adhoc</em> processes and hence on labour, the greater is the resilience of such a business.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Stronger control on customers, distribution infrastructure &amp; manufacturing infrastructure: </strong>Within the same industry there are businesses which are structured differently relative to their competitors. In-house manufacturing with an in-house workforce is likely to be better positioned than outsourced manufacturing with a contract labour workforce especially at a time when contract laborers have migrated to their villages during the lockdown. Fully owned distribution channels are better than distribution via exclusive distributors, which in turn is better than distribution via wholesalers because distributors can be provided working capital support during the crisis whilst wholesalers might not be able to survive through the crisis given the working capital challenges they face. Tech-systems or sales teams directly collecting data on the end consumer/point of sale are better positioned than reliance on a channel partner to help understand the evolution of the end-consumer.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Superior employee culture and HR practices: </strong>A strong employee culture helps execute operating efficiencies at the ground level consistently over time. Empowerment of professionals helps an organization scale up without size becoming an impediment against growth. Following the disruption of Covid-19, such characteristics around employee culture will help great businesses execute the transition to the new normal successfully with all stakeholders of the business – customers, marketing partners, distribution partners, manufacturing setups, vendors etc.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nIn our March newsletter (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/consistent-compounders-fall-less-and-recover-sooner-and-sharper/\">click here</a>), we explained how ALL companies in our portfolio are better positioned during the Covid-19 crisis compared to their competitors due to a combination of: a) working capital support provided to their channel partners while competitors don’t have enough balance sheet strength to provide such support; b) ability to get their products in front of their customers as soon as the lockdown is lifted due to in-house manufacturing and strong control on distribution; and c) surplus capital available from FY20’s corporate tax rate cut which can be used to further suffocate competition. Let us now consider a case study on the possibility of <strong><em>disruption</em></strong> in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis.\r\n\r\n<strong>Case study - Asian Paints – the DNA to disrupt rather than get disrupted</strong>\r\n\r\nOver the past few decades, Asian Paints has disrupted the paints industry in several ways. Firstly, in the 1950s and 1960s, the firm removed channel partners like distributors and wholesalers from its distribution channel; hence today, decorative paints is the only mass market category where the manufacturer directly reaches 70,000+ points of sale (paint dealers), without any channel intermediation. Secondly, the price at which a paint dealer sells Asian Paints’ products to a painter / contractor leaves only 3-5% average margin with the dealer. Hence, in order make a healthy ROI (returns on invested capital), the paint dealer requires high inventory turns, which is the biggest area of differentiation between Asian Paints and its competitors. Asian Paints has built its strengths around demand forecasting using its technology investments, which then helps it deliver a <em>voluminous</em> product (paints are at least 7-10x more voluminous vs FMCG products), <em>directly</em> to 70,000+ dealers, 3-4 times every day. Thirdly, Asian Paints has kept product price hikes to a bare minimum – less than 3% CAGR over the past two decades! This is because Asian Paints keeps extracting incremental operating efficiencies by investing in technology and in building systems and processes (here are some examples highlighted on <a href=\"https://www.cognizant.com/perspectives/asian-paints-the-digital-odyssey-of-a-serial-reinventor\">Cognizant’s</a>, <a href=\"https://new.abb.com/cpm/industry-specific-solutions/consumer-fine-chemicals/one-of-world-s-largest-dcs-and-mes-projects-for-integrated-paint-process\">ABB’s</a> and <a href=\"https://sightmachine.com/pr/asian-paints-deploys-sight-machine-for-digital-transformation-of-manufacturing/\">Sight Machine’s</a> website). Without access to such operating efficiencies, several paint manufacturers have found it difficult to survive in India and this has helped Asian Paints consolidate market share very substantially.\r\n\r\nSo, what is the future of India’s decorative paints industry and within that, what is the future of Asian Paints’ leadership in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis? To begin with, paints demand cannot be easily substituted by other products (Asian Paints is already amongst the leading wallpaper manufacturers with their brand Nilaya). 80-85% of decorative paints demand in India is repainting of households where each household has a certain repainting cycle. Demand for interior paints are at the risk of being deferred as, given the Covid-19 crisis, consumers might take a few months before they feel comfortable about inviting labour into their homes. If a household was scheduled to get their interior walls painted during the summer of 2020, it is likely that they will delay this paint project by few months. However, it is unlikely that they will get their walls painted at the end of the next cycle i.e. 7-8 years later. Also, those households which were scheduled to get their walls painted in 2021, will perhaps not defer their paint projects. Hence, during a 12-18 months period after the lockdown, we are likely to see pent-up demand from lockdown-affected households along with normal demand from the 2021-scheduled households, and hence a deferment (instead of a cancellation) of demand due to the lockdown.\r\n\r\nWhilst we cannot foresee exactly how the sector will evolve / get disrupted over the next 3-5 years, there are some very interesting observations which could guide towards an answer to this question. As highlighted in this article (<a href=\"https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/asian-paints-takes-measures-to-help-contractors-combat-covid-19/article31411840.ece\">click here</a>), Asian Paints has been providing direct cash transfer into the bank accounts of over 40,000 contractors across the country (in fact, a press article on Berger (<a href=\"https://www.outlookindia.com/newsscroll/berger-provides-financial-support-for-paint-contractors-amid-lockdown/1801441\">click here</a>) gives some indication on the quantum of these cash transfers). During our recent channel checks, we were told by some dealers that for the first time in history, Asian Paints has relaxed credit terms for payment to the company. They have given extra credit of 45 days to the dealers with a 2% discount available on the payment if made within these extra 45 days. The firm is also providing a comprehensive Covid-19 insurance coverage to people working inside a dealer’s shop and to contractors / painters attached to some of these dealers. Once the lockdown has been lifted, Asian Paints will provide free sanitization of dealers’ shops. Competitors like Akzo Nobel, Kansai Nerolac and smaller organized or unorganized players are either not providing such support to the channel partners or are providing some of this support on a chargeable basis. Also, Asian Paints’ dealers have also been informed that the firm has finalized (but not yet disclosed) <em>on ‘many areas of new products and painting services’</em> which will benefit the consumer. Now, let’s delve deeper into this.\r\n\r\nThe paints sector in India has undergone a transition over the past few decades. As mentioned above, Asian Paints has limited product price hikes to less than 3% CAGR. In a typical paint project at a household level, a customer pays for two things – the paint material and labor. While the paint material cost has gone up at a CAGR of less than 3%, labour cost has increase at a much higher rate of 8-10% CAGR. This in turn has meant that today on average, 65% of a paint project cost in India is labour, up from ~20% two decades ago. This transition calls for a possibility to drive market share in the industry by offering a value-added labor experience to a household in exchange for a labour-intensive composition of the current project cost. In order to use this transition as a source of disruption, Asian Paints has spent more than a decade in establishing value-added labour-oriented offerings like Asian Paints Home solutions, Water Proofing solutions, Color consultancies, etc. Moreover, the firm has indigenized mechanized solutions (express-painting solutions) which are used by labor workforce to execute these paint projects in less than half the time it otherwise takes painters via manual painting processes. There might also be a possibility that Asian Paints could offer such mechanized solutions in a DIY format to customers directly.\r\n\r\nAsian Paints has already spent more than a decade to get greater control on offering value-adds via the applicator (i.e. the painter or contractor) involved in the paint project. With Covid-19 being a disruption which will increase the focus of a household on the applicator’s hygiene and on the time it takes to get a house painted, Asian Paints could yet again be the best positioned paint company to disrupt the paints industry and deepen its competitive advantages further in the aftermath of this crisis. We don’t yet see the Indian decorative paints industry being disrupted in a manner which will change the leadership of this industry. It appears to us that the leader – Asian Paints – has prepared for a long time for the disruption we are seeing today.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nThere are two ways to invest in companies which win by disrupting an industry – <strong>a)</strong> invest in a newcomer who will disrupt; or <strong>b)</strong> invest in an incumbent leader who will disrupt (and will hence maintain leadership by not allowing a newcomer to enter). Whilst many industries will see the former type of disruption, we prefer to stick to the latter because of the low risk involved in adopting this approach. For instance, if blockchain is a future disruption, rather than speculating on which new technology firm will create the blockchain disruption, we would prefer to invest in Asian Paints and HDFC Bank if these are two of the companies which will use the blockchain technology to disrupt their competition. Similarly, instead of investing in a new set of companies in the aftermath of Covid-19 crisis, we would rather invest with Consistent Compounders who are likely to retain their leadership in the post-Covid world by disrupting their competitors.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Enduring Greatness in a Disrupted World', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'enduring-greatness-in-a-disrupted-world', '', '', '2020-05-01 09:39:51', '2020-05-01 09:39:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3279', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3278, 1, '2020-04-30 15:08:43', '2020-04-30 15:08:43', '', 'HDFC NRI Sample Prefilled Forms', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'hdfc-nri-sample-prefilled-forms', '', '', '2020-04-30 15:08:43', '2020-04-30 15:08:43', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/HDFC-NRI-Sample-Prefilled-Forms.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3280, 1, '2020-05-01 09:36:47', '2020-05-01 09:36:47', '', 'may2', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'may2', '', '', '2020-05-01 09:38:21', '2020-05-01 09:38:21', '', 3279, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may2.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3281, 1, '2020-05-01 09:36:51', '2020-05-01 09:36:51', '', 'may1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'may1', '', '', '2020-05-01 09:37:36', '2020-05-01 09:37:36', '', 3279, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/may1.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3285, 1, '2020-05-05 03:41:45', '2020-05-05 03:41:45', 'Every single day in Marcellus we tell our clients that at least 80% of Indian companies have suspect accounts. Further, as we have explained in this blog - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2463b8ccd1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2463b8ccd1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588735492387000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGxped7f7p07-mhHVnEYovzSyE0_Q\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />accounting-fraud-and-<wbr />liquidity-crunches-are-<wbr />bedfellows/</a> - in a crisis may of these companies find that their time is up. In the article, the Economist makes a similar point for the world at large: <em>“Booms help fraudsters paper over cracks in their accounts, from fictitious investment returns to exaggerated sales. Slowdowns rip the covering o!. As Baruch Lev, an accounting professor at New York University, puts it, “In good times everyone looks good, and the market punishes you harshly for not keeping up.” Many big book-cooking scandals of the past 20 years emerged in downturns. A decade before the crisis of 2007-09 the dotcom crash exposed accounting sins at Enron and WorldCom perpetrated in the go-go late 1990s. Both firms went bust soon after. As Warren Buffett, a revered investor, once put it: “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.””</em>\r\nIn this context, it looks highly likely that the Corona driven liquidity crunch around the world will lead to more accounting frauds coming to light: <em>“Some dirty secrets are beginning to come out. Take Luckin Co!ee, which had expanded to take on Starbucks in China, attracting big-name investors like Blackrock and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund. On April 2nd the Nasdaq listed Chinese chain announced an ongoing internal probe amid allegations that its chief operating officer and other employees may have fabricated over 2bn yuan ($280m) in sales. On April 14<sup>th</sup> Citron Research, a short-seller, accused GSX, a Chinese online-tutoring firm listed in New York, of inflating last year’s sales. In a statement GSX denied the allegations and said Citron’s report was misleading and “full of subjective maliciousness”.”</em>\r\nIn fact there is good reason to believe that accounting blow-ups in the wake of Covid could be amongst the most spectacular ever: <em>“Non-GAAP adjustments have spread like wildfire through corporate accounts, making it harder to discern what numbers reflect a firm’s true financial position. The average number of non-GAAP measures used in filings by companies in the S&amp;P 500 index has increased from 2.5 to 7.5 in the past 20 years, according to PwC, a consultancy. In credit agreements analysed by Zion Research Group, the definition of EBITDA ranges from 75 words to over 2,200.”</em>', 'The economic crisis will expose a decade’s worth of corporate fraud', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3284-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:41:45', '2020-05-05 03:41:45', '', 3284, 'https://marcellus.in/3284-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3286, 1, '2020-05-03 03:42:25', '2020-05-03 03:42:25', 'Whilst all of us have read about what happened in Café Coffee Day or Gitanjali or Amtek Auto or DHFL or IL&amp;FS, it is rare to read about an accounting blowup in the NRI community let alone a blowup which makes local Indian promoters look like babes playing in the wood. This ET story profiles BR Shetty, a man who migrated from Udupi in Karnataka to the Middle East with only $8 in his pocket, went on to become a billionaire and has now landed in hot water.\r\nAs recently as in 2018, Mr Shetty seemed to be on top of the world: <em>“…here was not a cloud on the horizon for the Abu Dhabi-based billionaire-founder of NMC Health, then the biggest private healthcare company in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Its 2012 IPO in the London Stock Exchange — the first for an Abu Dhabi-based company — was a blockbuster, raising £117 million. In 2014, he acquired UK-based forex major Travelex, paying £1 billion. A sprawl of smaller businesses that he owns across hospitality, education and pharma were all doing well…</em>\r\n<em>Shetty embodied the ultimate immigrant dream in the Persian Gulf — a man from coastal Karnataka who arrived in the oil-rich West Asian deserts in the early 1970s with $8 in his pocket and went on to create a personal fortune estimated by Forbes to be $4.2 billion in 2018.”</em>\r\nThen in December 2019, Muddy Waters – the Singapore based shorting expert – nailed Mr Shetty. Their report on the LSE listed NMC Health said:<em> “At the worst of times, the company has invested in large assets at costs that we find to be too high to be plausible – including from parties we believe are de facto under common control…NMC’s reported cash balances show two red flags that indicate they could be materially overstated…in our view, NMC also deliberately understated its debt by US$320 million as of FY18…”</em>\r\nWhat followed after the publication of the Muddy Waters report is little short of extraordinary: <em>“A private investigation revealed it might have understated its debt by $4.5 billion in 2019. Shetty’s financial services firm Finablr, an LSE-listed enterprise that owns the remittance firm UAE Exchange, has discovered that $100 million worth of cheques were issued from the company without the board’s knowledge. Top executives at both firms have either resigned or been sacked. LSE has suspended trading in the stock of both the companies. NMC Health has been placed in administration. Shetty himself stepped down as director and joint non-executive chairman of NMC Health in February and is now facing criminal charges in Abu Dhabi allegedly for fraud and forgery.</em>\r\n<em>Trading in the NMC stock was suspended in London in February. It had fallen by more than 60% from the levels that prevailed just ahead of the report (November 26)…NMC reportedly owes money to over 80 financial institutions. On March 24, NMC Health informed the LSE that the group’s debt was estimated to be $6.6 billion…”</em>', 'The staggering rise and incredible fall of a billionaire', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-staggering-rise-and-incredible-fall-of-a-billionaire', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:45:17', '2020-05-05 03:45:17', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3286', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3287, 1, '2020-05-05 03:45:17', '2020-05-05 03:45:17', 'Whilst all of us have read about what happened in Café Coffee Day or Gitanjali or Amtek Auto or DHFL or IL&amp;FS, it is rare to read about an accounting blowup in the NRI community let alone a blowup which makes local Indian promoters look like babes playing in the wood. This ET story profiles BR Shetty, a man who migrated from Udupi in Karnataka to the Middle East with only $8 in his pocket, went on to become a billionaire and has now landed in hot water.\r\nAs recently as in 2018, Mr Shetty seemed to be on top of the world: <em>“…here was not a cloud on the horizon for the Abu Dhabi-based billionaire-founder of NMC Health, then the biggest private healthcare company in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Its 2012 IPO in the London Stock Exchange — the first for an Abu Dhabi-based company — was a blockbuster, raising £117 million. In 2014, he acquired UK-based forex major Travelex, paying £1 billion. A sprawl of smaller businesses that he owns across hospitality, education and pharma were all doing well…</em>\r\n<em>Shetty embodied the ultimate immigrant dream in the Persian Gulf — a man from coastal Karnataka who arrived in the oil-rich West Asian deserts in the early 1970s with $8 in his pocket and went on to create a personal fortune estimated by Forbes to be $4.2 billion in 2018.”</em>\r\nThen in December 2019, Muddy Waters – the Singapore based shorting expert – nailed Mr Shetty. Their report on the LSE listed NMC Health said:<em> “At the worst of times, the company has invested in large assets at costs that we find to be too high to be plausible – including from parties we believe are de facto under common control…NMC’s reported cash balances show two red flags that indicate they could be materially overstated…in our view, NMC also deliberately understated its debt by US$320 million as of FY18…”</em>\r\nWhat followed after the publication of the Muddy Waters report is little short of extraordinary: <em>“A private investigation revealed it might have understated its debt by $4.5 billion in 2019. Shetty’s financial services firm Finablr, an LSE-listed enterprise that owns the remittance firm UAE Exchange, has discovered that $100 million worth of cheques were issued from the company without the board’s knowledge. Top executives at both firms have either resigned or been sacked. LSE has suspended trading in the stock of both the companies. NMC Health has been placed in administration. Shetty himself stepped down as director and joint non-executive chairman of NMC Health in February and is now facing criminal charges in Abu Dhabi allegedly for fraud and forgery.</em>\r\n<em>Trading in the NMC stock was suspended in London in February. It had fallen by more than 60% from the levels that prevailed just ahead of the report (November 26)…NMC reportedly owes money to over 80 financial institutions. On March 24, NMC Health informed the LSE that the group’s debt was estimated to be $6.6 billion…”</em>', 'The staggering rise and incredible fall of a billionaire', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3286-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:45:17', '2020-05-05 03:45:17', '', 3286, 'https://marcellus.in/3286-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3288, 1, '2020-05-03 03:45:26', '2020-05-03 03:45:26', 'The lives vs livelihood debate has become louder through the lockdown across the world with increasing calls to ‘reopen the economy’. But much of these calls have been towards helping the economically less fortunate to get back to a means of livelihood. In other cases, helping small businesses which don’t have the wherewithal to survive an extended lockdown. Several have cited the collapse of the financial system from such businesses going down as another reason to lift the lockdown. However, most agree on schools being shutdown for an extended period. This piece in the Economist argues why the long term effects of keeping schools closed may be even more damaging than some of the far more visible effects in the hear and now.\r\n<em>“Schools have striven to remain open during wars, famines and even storms. The extent and length of school closures now happening in the rich world are unprecedented. The costs are horrifying. Most immediately, having to take care of children limits the productivity of parents. But in the long run that will be dwarfed by the amount of lost learning. Those costs will fall most heavily on those children who are most in need of education. Without interventions the effects could last a lifetime.</em>\r\n<em>For these reasons Singapore in 2003 cut its month-long June holiday by two weeks to make up for a fortnight of school closures during the SARS epidemic. Closing schools even briefly hurts children’s prospects. In America third-graders (seven-year-olds) affected by weather-related closures do less well in state exams. French-speaking Belgian students hit by a two-month teachers’ strike in 1990 were more likely to repeat a grade, and less likely to complete higher education, than similar Flemish-speaking students not affected by the strike. According to some studies, over the long summer break young children in America lose between 20% and 50% of the skills they gained over the school year.”</em>\r\nWhilst online classes can somewhat help compensate where subject matter is concerned but the softer aspects of learning in a physical setting can’t be made up by the digital world, especially among younger kids. Also, access to online tools is not uniform, depriving the very section of society which benefits the most from schooling, likely resulting in further increasing inequalities.\r\n<em>“Social and emotional skills such as critical thinking, perseverance and self-control are predictors of many things, from academic success and employment to good health and the likelihood of going to jail. Whereas older children can be plonked in front of a computer, younger ones learn far more when digital study is supervised by an adult.</em>\r\n<em>…For poorer children, internet connections may be ropey. Devices may have to be shared and homes may be overcrowded or noisy. Of the poorest quarter of American children, one in four does not have access to a computer at home. Less well-off children everywhere are less likely to have well-educated parents who coax them to attend remote lessons and help them with their work. In Britain more than half of pupils in private schools are taking part in daily online classes, compared with just one in five of their peers in state schools”</em>', 'Closing schools for covid-19 does lifelong harm and widens inequality', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'closing-schools-for-covid-19-does-lifelong-harm-and-widens-inequality', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:52:03', '2020-05-05 03:52:03', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3288', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3289, 1, '2020-05-05 03:52:03', '2020-05-05 03:52:03', 'The lives vs livelihood debate has become louder through the lockdown across the world with increasing calls to ‘reopen the economy’. But much of these calls have been towards helping the economically less fortunate to get back to a means of livelihood. In other cases, helping small businesses which don’t have the wherewithal to survive an extended lockdown. Several have cited the collapse of the financial system from such businesses going down as another reason to lift the lockdown. However, most agree on schools being shutdown for an extended period. This piece in the Economist argues why the long term effects of keeping schools closed may be even more damaging than some of the far more visible effects in the hear and now.\r\n<em>“Schools have striven to remain open during wars, famines and even storms. The extent and length of school closures now happening in the rich world are unprecedented. The costs are horrifying. Most immediately, having to take care of children limits the productivity of parents. But in the long run that will be dwarfed by the amount of lost learning. Those costs will fall most heavily on those children who are most in need of education. Without interventions the effects could last a lifetime.</em>\r\n<em>For these reasons Singapore in 2003 cut its month-long June holiday by two weeks to make up for a fortnight of school closures during the SARS epidemic. Closing schools even briefly hurts children’s prospects. In America third-graders (seven-year-olds) affected by weather-related closures do less well in state exams. French-speaking Belgian students hit by a two-month teachers’ strike in 1990 were more likely to repeat a grade, and less likely to complete higher education, than similar Flemish-speaking students not affected by the strike. According to some studies, over the long summer break young children in America lose between 20% and 50% of the skills they gained over the school year.”</em>\r\nWhilst online classes can somewhat help compensate where subject matter is concerned but the softer aspects of learning in a physical setting can’t be made up by the digital world, especially among younger kids. Also, access to online tools is not uniform, depriving the very section of society which benefits the most from schooling, likely resulting in further increasing inequalities.\r\n<em>“Social and emotional skills such as critical thinking, perseverance and self-control are predictors of many things, from academic success and employment to good health and the likelihood of going to jail. Whereas older children can be plonked in front of a computer, younger ones learn far more when digital study is supervised by an adult.</em>\r\n<em>…For poorer children, internet connections may be ropey. Devices may have to be shared and homes may be overcrowded or noisy. Of the poorest quarter of American children, one in four does not have access to a computer at home. Less well-off children everywhere are less likely to have well-educated parents who coax them to attend remote lessons and help them with their work. In Britain more than half of pupils in private schools are taking part in daily online classes, compared with just one in five of their peers in state schools”</em>', 'Closing schools for covid-19 does lifelong harm and widens inequality', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3288-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:52:03', '2020-05-05 03:52:03', '', 3288, 'https://marcellus.in/3288-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3290, 1, '2020-05-03 03:52:15', '2020-05-03 03:52:15', 'Asking an analyst for this year\'s earnings forecasts may sound ridiculous now given the complete uncertainty around the lockdown and return to normalcy thereafter. But this piece is to show that the question is no less ridiculous even in normal times. Indeed, the Indian sell side community collectively has failed to come remotely close to the Nifty’s actual earnings every single time in the last five years. Morgan Housel articulates this aspect of investing which we frequently tend to grapple in our conversations with clients - when we go on and on about the long history of a portfolio company and the client asks ‘all that is fine, but tell me what will happen in the future as my returns depend on that, not the past. Show me your forecasts’. To which we promptly say we don’t have any.\r\n“<em>Studying history can feel like intellectual candy that offers no practical use to investors who are paid to foresee the future. But once you accept how fragile our assumptions of the future are, you realize that forecasts are the real fluff and history is where the meat is.</em>\r\n<em>Think of all the 2020 market forecasts published in December. Oof. Authors of these reports – most of which have been quietly removed – might say, “I couldn’t have foreseen Covid-19 in December, and it upended my entire forecast.” To which my response would be, “Yes, that’s my point.” If you claim an ability to foresee events, you can’t use events you didn’t foresee as an excuse – especially when unforeseeable events move the needle most. When a company reports poor earnings it’s often said they missed analysts’ estimates. But earnings don’t miss estimates; estimates miss earnings.</em>\r\n<em>Accepting that forecasts have little use doesn’t mean you become a blind fatalist. When you pay more attention to history than forecasts you pick up on the patterns that guide how people respond to unforeseen events, which – given how stable behavior is over time – is the next best thing to knowing what will happen next.</em>\r\n<em>I don’t know when this recession will end, and I’m not interested in your forecast. But I am interested in the historical observation that progress happens too slowly for people to notice but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore, which causes most people to recognize when a recession ended only with considerable hindsight, which requires maintaining investing optimism even when the economy around you feels broken.”</em>\r\nBut this doesn’t mean we don’t care about the future. After all the client is right – her returns will come from what will happen in future. Here as well, Morgan’s tip is to have expectations, not forecasts.\r\n<em>“If I say, “The next recession will begin in 2024,” I’ve made a forecast.</em>\r\n<em>If I say, “Recessions occur roughly every 5-10 years,” I’ve expressed an expectation.</em>\r\n<em>They seem similar, but they’re very different.</em>\r\n<em>Forecasts rely on knowing when something will occur. Expectations are an acknowledgment of what’s likely to occur without professing insight into when it will happen.</em>\r\n<em>Expectations are healthier than forecasts because they provide a vision of the future stripped of all false precision. If you know a recession will occur at some point, you won’t be that surprised whenever it arrives – which is a huge benefit. But if you assume you know exactly when it will occur you’ll be tempted into all kinds of dangerous behavior, leveraged with overconfidence. And you’ll be shocked when time passes and what you thought would occur hasn’t happened (yet).”</em>\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to compund their earnings at around 20% for the next 5-10yrs.', 'When You Have No Idea What Happens Next', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'when-you-have-no-idea-what-happens-next', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:53:29', '2020-05-05 03:53:29', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3290', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3291, 1, '2020-05-05 03:53:29', '2020-05-05 03:53:29', 'Asking an analyst for this year\'s earnings forecasts may sound ridiculous now given the complete uncertainty around the lockdown and return to normalcy thereafter. But this piece is to show that the question is no less ridiculous even in normal times. Indeed, the Indian sell side community collectively has failed to come remotely close to the Nifty’s actual earnings every single time in the last five years. Morgan Housel articulates this aspect of investing which we frequently tend to grapple in our conversations with clients - when we go on and on about the long history of a portfolio company and the client asks ‘all that is fine, but tell me what will happen in the future as my returns depend on that, not the past. Show me your forecasts’. To which we promptly say we don’t have any.\r\n“<em>Studying history can feel like intellectual candy that offers no practical use to investors who are paid to foresee the future. But once you accept how fragile our assumptions of the future are, you realize that forecasts are the real fluff and history is where the meat is.</em>\r\n<em>Think of all the 2020 market forecasts published in December. Oof. Authors of these reports – most of which have been quietly removed – might say, “I couldn’t have foreseen Covid-19 in December, and it upended my entire forecast.” To which my response would be, “Yes, that’s my point.” If you claim an ability to foresee events, you can’t use events you didn’t foresee as an excuse – especially when unforeseeable events move the needle most. When a company reports poor earnings it’s often said they missed analysts’ estimates. But earnings don’t miss estimates; estimates miss earnings.</em>\r\n<em>Accepting that forecasts have little use doesn’t mean you become a blind fatalist. When you pay more attention to history than forecasts you pick up on the patterns that guide how people respond to unforeseen events, which – given how stable behavior is over time – is the next best thing to knowing what will happen next.</em>\r\n<em>I don’t know when this recession will end, and I’m not interested in your forecast. But I am interested in the historical observation that progress happens too slowly for people to notice but setbacks happen too quickly to ignore, which causes most people to recognize when a recession ended only with considerable hindsight, which requires maintaining investing optimism even when the economy around you feels broken.”</em>\r\nBut this doesn’t mean we don’t care about the future. After all the client is right – her returns will come from what will happen in future. Here as well, Morgan’s tip is to have expectations, not forecasts.\r\n<em>“If I say, “The next recession will begin in 2024,” I’ve made a forecast.</em>\r\n<em>If I say, “Recessions occur roughly every 5-10 years,” I’ve expressed an expectation.</em>\r\n<em>They seem similar, but they’re very different.</em>\r\n<em>Forecasts rely on knowing when something will occur. Expectations are an acknowledgment of what’s likely to occur without professing insight into when it will happen.</em>\r\n<em>Expectations are healthier than forecasts because they provide a vision of the future stripped of all false precision. If you know a recession will occur at some point, you won’t be that surprised whenever it arrives – which is a huge benefit. But if you assume you know exactly when it will occur you’ll be tempted into all kinds of dangerous behavior, leveraged with overconfidence. And you’ll be shocked when time passes and what you thought would occur hasn’t happened (yet).”</em>\r\nWe expect our portfolio companies to compund their earnings at around 20% for the next 5-10yrs.', 'When You Have No Idea What Happens Next', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3290-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 03:53:29', '2020-05-05 03:53:29', '', 3290, 'https://marcellus.in/3290-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3292, 1, '2020-05-03 03:53:40', '2020-05-03 03:53:40', 'As humanity’s love for automobiles grew, in turn pushing up the demand and therefore price of oil, supply side response came from offshore drilling to fracking of shale oil. That’s intuitively expected. However, when the world went into lockdown and demand for oil fell taking down prices to even negative territory as there wasn’t enough storage capacity, why didn’t the supply side response come with shutting down of oil wells. This piece explains the technical and the resulting economic challenges to shutting down oil wells.\r\n<em>“On Friday, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, the US, and others will begin scaling back their production by nearly 10 million barrels per day. They hope that this will help stabilize prices and take some pressure off of producers and refineries that are scrambling to find a place to store the excess. But the rollback isn’t likely to be enough. Oil producers would have to reduce production by almost three times that amount to match the downturn in demand. So why don’t they?</em>\r\n<em>The short answer is because temporarily closing or “shutting in” a well costs money—and potentially lots of money. It’s not just about the foregone revenue, which is less of a concern when prices are dipping into the negative. It’s about what happens when the well is opened back up.</em>\r\n<em>…A well typically taps into a mixture of oil and water. Both are pumped to the surface, but the water is treated as waste. When a well is shut in, the ratio of oil to water is recalibrated, since there’s no longer a big pipe sucking on the fissures in the rock. Because the rock in shale wells isn’t very permeable, water may accumulate in the fractures. When the well opens up again, it may end up producing more water than oil, because the accumulated H2O impedes the movement of oil. Shale wells typically operate on thin profit margins, so even a relatively small loss in productivity could make the well unprofitable.</em>\r\n<em>Van Oort says the amount of time a well is closed doesn’t really affect how much damage the shut-in inflicts on the reservoir. Once the well is closed, the damage is done. If producers have to repeatedly shut the well, the damage can compound over time and reduce productivity even more.</em>\r\n<em>The situation is a bit better for the roughly 1,000 offshore oil derricks in the Gulf of Mexico. These are typically conventional wells where a pipe is drilled into the ground and oil is pumped up—almost like sucking a milkshake through a straw. Offshore oil producers are accustomed to temporarily turning wells off during hurricanes, and shut-ins don’t have as big of a negative effect on their ability to produce oil. The reason for this, says McLennan, is because the offshore reservoirs are more permeable, which allows the oil to flow more freely.</em>\r\n<em>But even though offshore reservoirs might not sustain as much damage from shut-ins, McLennan says the wells are a bit more challenging to turn off. Some subsea pipelines may need to be protected if the oil contains waxy paraffins, which can solidify in pipelines at the bottom of the ocean, where temperatures are just a few degrees above freezing. So before an offshore well can be turned off, there’s often a lot of preventative maintenance that needs to be done, like flushing the pipes and filling them with a fluid that prevents wax formation.”</em>', 'The World Is Still Producing More Oil Than It Needs. Why?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-world-is-still-producing-more-oil-than-it-needs-why', '', '', '2020-05-05 04:09:39', '2020-05-05 04:09:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3292', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3293, 1, '2020-05-05 04:00:33', '2020-05-05 04:00:33', 'As humanity’s love for automobiles grew, in turn pushing up the demand and therefore price of oil, supply side response came from offshore drilling to fracking of shale oil. That’s intuitively expected. However, when the world went into lockdown and demand for oil fell taking down prices to even negative territory as there wasn’t enough storage capacity, why didn’t the supply side response come with shutting down of oil wells. This piece explains the technical and the resulting economic challenges to shutting down oil wells.\r\n<em>“On Friday, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, the US, and others will begin scaling back their production by nearly 10 million barrels per day. They hope that this will help stabilize prices and take some pressure off of producers and refineries that are scrambling to find a place to store the excess. But the rollback isn’t likely to be enough. Oil producers would have to reduce production by almost three times that amount to match the downturn in demand. So why don’t they?</em>\r\n<em>The short answer is because temporarily closing or “shutting in” a well costs money—and potentially lots of money. It’s not just about the foregone revenue, which is less of a concern when prices are dipping into the negative. It’s about what happens when the well is opened back up.</em>\r\n<em>…A well typically taps into a mixture of oil and water. Both are pumped to the surface, but the water is treated as waste. When a well is shut in, the ratio of oil to water is recalibrated, since there’s no longer a big pipe sucking on the fissures in the rock. Because the rock in shale wells isn’t very permeable, water may accumulate in the fractures. When the well opens up again, it may end up producing more water than oil, because the accumulated H2O impedes the movement of oil. Shale wells typically operate on thin profit margins, so even a relatively small loss in productivity could make the well unprofitable.</em>\r\n<em>Van Oort says the amount of time a well is closed doesn’t really affect how much damage the shut-in inflicts on the reservoir. Once the well is closed, the damage is done. If producers have to repeatedly shut the well, the damage can compound over time and reduce productivity even more.</em>\r\n<em>The situation is a bit better for the roughly 1,000 offshore oil derricks in the Gulf of Mexico. These are typically conventional wells where a pipe is drilled into the ground and oil is pumped up—almost like sucking a milkshake through a straw. Offshore oil producers are accustomed to temporarily turning wells off during hurricanes, and shut-ins don’t have as big of a negative effect on their ability to produce oil. The reason for this, says McLennan, is because the offshore reservoirs are more permeable, which allows the oil to flow more freely.</em>\r\n<em>But even though offshore reservoirs might not sustain as much damage from shut-ins, McLennan says the wells are a bit more challenging to turn off. Some subsea pipelines may need to be protected if the oil contains waxy paraffins, which can solidify in pipelines at the bottom of the ocean, where temperatures are just a few degrees above freezing. So before an offshore well can be turned off, there’s often a lot of preventative maintenance that needs to be done, like flushing the pipes and filling them with a fluid that prevents wax formation.”</em>', 'The World Is Still Producing More Oil Than It Needs. Why?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3292-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 04:00:33', '2020-05-05 04:00:33', '', 3292, 'https://marcellus.in/3292-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3294, 1, '2020-05-03 04:12:16', '2020-05-03 04:12:16', 'It is said that crises bring the best out of humanity. Whilst the world is looking forward to many innovations coming up on the back of this lockdown, this applies equally to the individual level itself. Especially in the creative field, social distancing actually isn’t such a bad deal. Alone time can give people the much needed space to think and create. This piece in the FT shares some examples of how people in the creative fields of music, art and even scientists are making use of the solitude of the lockdown to come up with new ideas.\r\n<em>“A slower pace of life and learning to love boredom could not only lead to an explosion of people writing and painting masterpieces but also thinking about “creative solutions” to work problems, according to Sandi Mann, a senior psychology lecturer at the University of Central Lancashire, who is running lessons and therapy clinics remotely.\r\n“Boredom is one of the most creative forces — there are benefits to doing nothing. You start thinking in novel and productive ways,” she says. “Get through the pain barrier and discover your creativity that is waiting to emerge.”\r\n…The co-director of SynbiCITE, the UK Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Synthetic Biology, says this is the scientists’ time to contribute to helping in the national emergency. “We are seeing a classic response to an emergency by scientists rallying round and harnessing their energy to think creatively.” He has led a team of scientists to contribute to Covid-19 testing by raising £120,000 from the Dementia Research Institute to fund the repurposing of SynbiCITE’s biofoundry, a centre for designing and building the genetic make-up of cells. The\r\ntesting regime has been validated and implemented in London’s Charing Cross and St Mary’s hospitals. All of this work, which usually takes months, was done in just three weeks — an “amazing” turnround, says Prof Freemont. The result is that robotic platforms will be used to collect data on Covid-19 patients that can be analysed and help the fight against the outbreak.\"</em>\r\nHowever, not every aspect of creativity thrives in solitude. After all, social contact is still the most biggest source of happiness for most humans including those from the creative field.\r\n<em>“One challenging aspect of our current working life, though, is the lack of contact with others due to social distancing — and this can affect creativity. Both Prof Freemont and Ms Westgate find the flow of discussion can be inhibited by remote meetings where only one person can speak at a time. “Conversations can weave in a room” but the limits of technology “can interrupt the flow of ideas”, Prof Freemont says.</em> <em>“Thinking is social too and that’s been harder with the lockdown. I can’t wander down the hallway to chat with colleagues and think aloud together with them when an idea pops into my head. I miss that,” Ms Westgate says. Ms Hanks sums up how many workers are feeling: “It will be very special when [we] get together again.””</em>', 'How to tap into creativity during lockdown', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-tap-into-creativity-during-lockdown', '', '', '2020-05-05 04:13:40', '2020-05-05 04:13:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3294', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3295, 1, '2020-05-05 04:13:40', '2020-05-05 04:13:40', 'It is said that crises bring the best out of humanity. Whilst the world is looking forward to many innovations coming up on the back of this lockdown, this applies equally to the individual level itself. Especially in the creative field, social distancing actually isn’t such a bad deal. Alone time can give people the much needed space to think and create. This piece in the FT shares some examples of how people in the creative fields of music, art and even scientists are making use of the solitude of the lockdown to come up with new ideas.\r\n<em>“A slower pace of life and learning to love boredom could not only lead to an explosion of people writing and painting masterpieces but also thinking about “creative solutions” to work problems, according to Sandi Mann, a senior psychology lecturer at the University of Central Lancashire, who is running lessons and therapy clinics remotely.\r\n“Boredom is one of the most creative forces — there are benefits to doing nothing. You start thinking in novel and productive ways,” she says. “Get through the pain barrier and discover your creativity that is waiting to emerge.”\r\n…The co-director of SynbiCITE, the UK Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Synthetic Biology, says this is the scientists’ time to contribute to helping in the national emergency. “We are seeing a classic response to an emergency by scientists rallying round and harnessing their energy to think creatively.” He has led a team of scientists to contribute to Covid-19 testing by raising £120,000 from the Dementia Research Institute to fund the repurposing of SynbiCITE’s biofoundry, a centre for designing and building the genetic make-up of cells. The\r\ntesting regime has been validated and implemented in London’s Charing Cross and St Mary’s hospitals. All of this work, which usually takes months, was done in just three weeks — an “amazing” turnround, says Prof Freemont. The result is that robotic platforms will be used to collect data on Covid-19 patients that can be analysed and help the fight against the outbreak.\"</em>\r\nHowever, not every aspect of creativity thrives in solitude. After all, social contact is still the most biggest source of happiness for most humans including those from the creative field.\r\n<em>“One challenging aspect of our current working life, though, is the lack of contact with others due to social distancing — and this can affect creativity. Both Prof Freemont and Ms Westgate find the flow of discussion can be inhibited by remote meetings where only one person can speak at a time. “Conversations can weave in a room” but the limits of technology “can interrupt the flow of ideas”, Prof Freemont says.</em> <em>“Thinking is social too and that’s been harder with the lockdown. I can’t wander down the hallway to chat with colleagues and think aloud together with them when an idea pops into my head. I miss that,” Ms Westgate says. Ms Hanks sums up how many workers are feeling: “It will be very special when [we] get together again.””</em>', 'How to tap into creativity during lockdown', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3294-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-05 04:13:40', '2020-05-05 04:13:40', '', 3294, 'https://marcellus.in/3294-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3347, 1, '2020-05-13 08:22:16', '2020-05-13 08:22:16', '<strong>The 20 most profitable firms in India now generate 70% of the country’s profits, up from 14% thirty years ago. The rise of India’s networked economy (highways, cheap flights, broadband, GST) has allowed large, efficient firms to use superior technology &amp; better access to capital to squash smaller competitors. In line with what is being seen in the US, the growing dominance of a handful of very large companies in India is changing the template of capitalism in India. This has very significant implications for how portfolios are constructed and how valuation techniques are used in India.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>\"This survival of the fittest, which I have here sought to express in mechanical terms, is that which Mr. Darwin has called \'natural selection\', or the preservation of favoured races in the struggle for life.\" </em>– <strong>Herbert Spencer</strong> in ‘Principles of Biology’ (1864) after reading Charles Darwin’s book ‘On the Origin of Species’ (1859)\r\n\r\n<em>“Since the late 1990s, over 75% of US industries have experienced an increase in concentration levels. We find that firms in industries with the largest increases in product market concentration show higher profit margins and more profitable mergers and acquisitions deals. At the same time, we find no evidence for a significant increase in operational efficiency. Taken together, our results suggest that market power is becoming an important source of value…We also show that the higher profit margins associated with an increase in concentration are reflected in higher returns to shareholders. Overall, our results suggest that the US product markets have undergone a shift that has potentially weakened competition across the majority of industries.” </em>– <strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong> in ‘Are US Industries Becoming More Concentrated?’, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bec738032b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dbec738032b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEkLuyA3Ls1xfCfIsa6fHPDS-oe_g\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743.\r\n\r\n<em>“The evidence suggests that there has been a moderate increase in those broad measures of concentration…at least in the US and Japan, though not in European countries….Looking at the evidence on other indicators of competitive intensity, we can see that mark-ups and profits in the US have significantly increased. Data on mark-ups in Europe is unfortunately more limited; however, the picture that is available suggests a more mixed picture on mark-ups across different European countries, though there is a strong trend towards increased profits. Worryingly the rate of churn in the US appears to have fallen, while again in Europe the picture is mixed….there are a broad range of indicators suggesting that, on average, market power is increasing.”</em> – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aab9013c94&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daab9013c94%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGwk6huD1pviOvYZdcchSHMgxY6AQ\">‘Market Concentration Issues Paper’</a>, <strong>OECD</strong>, 20<sup>th</sup> April 2018.\r\n\r\n<strong>Time to rebuild our mental models of how India functions</strong>\r\n\r\nWhilst several Western academics have published credible analysis of how their economies have become less equal, we haven’t come across analysis of comparable quality in India. In our January 23<sup>rd</sup> 2020, blog - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=88f84c1ce0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D88f84c1ce0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQ7IyC4vgcLJJnS2KMlOl9E0qQrw\">How the Nifty will change in the coming decade?</a> we had highlighted how in several sectors in India, one or two companies account for 80% or more of the profits generated:\r\n\r\n<em>“</em><em>India is already an economy with extraordinary levels of profit share concentration in many key sectors. For example, in paints (Asian Paints, Berger Paints), premium cooking oil (Marico, Adani), biscuits (Britannia, Parle), hair oil (Marico, Bajaj Corp), infant milk powder (Nestle), cigarettes (ITC), adhesives (Pidilite), waterproofing (Pidilite again), trucks (Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland), small cars (Maruti, Hyundai) we already have one or two companies accounting for 80% of the profits generated in the sector. Now this trend looks likely to spread to more fragmented sectors where hitherto the unorganised players had greater profit share.”</em>\r\n\r\nSince at the core of our investment philosophy lies the notion of investing in firms with dominant positions and high barriers to entry, we decided to examine how the profit share of the top Indian companies has fared in the post-1991 era. What we found took our breath away.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignright wp-image-3634 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exibit-1-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"853\" height=\"412\" />\r\n\r\nThe vertical axis of the chart represents the 3-year moving average of the ratio of the amount of profit generated by 20 most profitable listed companies in India divided by the total profit generated by the entire Indian corporate sector. As the chart above shows, from around 14% when the country was opened up in the early 1990s, India’s top 20 PAT generators now account for nearly 70% of the profits generated in the world’s sixth largest economy.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3635 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"394\" />\r\n\r\nSince GDP is simply the aggregate of the returns to land, labour &amp; capital, we then looked at what % of Indian GDP is accounted for by the PAT of the top 20 companies. In the above chart, the left axis is the same as Exhibit 1 and the right axis shows the PAT of the top 20 companies divided by India’s Nominal GDP. Although the share of top 20 companies in Total PAT has increased significantly (LHS) from FY08, their PAT as a % of GDP (RHS) has declined during the same period. In fact, for the entirety of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, the two lines in Exhibit 2 have moved in opposite directions.\r\n\r\n<strong>So why are the largest Indian firms becoming utterly dominant leviathans?</strong>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>A networked economy helps more efficient companies:</strong> In our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8fb9908b4e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8fb9908b4e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjYTGq0e0EkjbpS18GQbYUF5YGLA\">Exit the Kirana Store, Enter the Supermarket</a> we had highlighted how over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.3 million km to 5.9 million km (CAGR of 6%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 392 million to 1161 million (CAGR of 12%). The number of broadband users has increased from 6 million to 563 million (CAGR of 57%). A decade ago, around 44 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 13%). 15 years ago, only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nAs a result of this networking of the Indian economy, efficient companies with strong distribution systems have pulled away from regional &amp; local players. For example, as the economy gets integrated, lending, which was once dominated by regional players is now seeing the emergence of a few national leviathans like HDFC Bank and HDFC with both lenders entering the list of top 20 PAT generators over the last 10 years.\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"2\"><strong>Regulatory burden is higher for smaller companies</strong>: Economists have long believed that onerous regulatory regimes hurt smaller companies more than larger ones. As highlighted in this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d9a122faf0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd9a122faf0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGYc46EsK1z2FRL96HdCj9xbMp19g\">article</a> a newly incorporated Indian company has to obtain registrations under at least seven regulators and file a minimum of 18 to a maximum of 69 returns a year. Clearly, smaller players, with limited resources, must spend relatively more resources than the larger ones. Similarly, the cost of adapting to GST was negligible for a leviathan like Asian Paints but far more significant for a smaller paint company with a fraction of Asian Paints’ market share.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nInterestingly, in this regard, social media has done a disservice to smaller companies – with regulators now worried that a small company under their watch will malfunction and thus cause a stink on social media, they have surrounded the small company with the same thicket of regulations which they used to foist exclusively on larger companies. In fact, the ability to handicap smaller competitors by influencing regulation has increasingly become the hallmark of many of India’s leviathans.\r\n\r\n<em>“Technological changes provide another plausible explanation for the recent increase in industry concentration levels. Developments in technology have created advantages for economies of scale, and have arguably changed the industry landscape….Public adoption of the Internet in the late 1990s, as well as the concomitant popularization of personal computers, has had an extensive impact on productivity and growth. If large firms are better able to develop and implement technology, then recent technological advances may create barriers of entry to new firms. In support of this argument, we calculate the evolution of patent-based industry concentration by looking at the share of total patent activity by the largest four firms in the industry using the patent database by Kogan et al…. These results suggest that complex technology also facilitates synergy potentials and increases barriers to entry.” - </em><strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9e9e7d4994&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9e9e7d4994%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9te9Hz7e4s7iWYup29hU9PjIhbw\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"3\"><strong>Technology as a barrier to entry</strong>: As per a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e44f656787&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De44f656787%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEaeepfX5nOb6FZBF3DHT_9Q58pVQ\">March 2019</a> survey conducted by McKinsey, smaller Indian companies have adopted the system of accepting digital payments more than the larger companies. However, they just do not have the resources for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. This is where the larger companies score over the smaller companies. We find in our portfolios, that in businesses where pan-India distribution/presence is required, market leaders like Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Astral Poly, Pidilite, Page Industries, etc. have made skilful use of technology to build barriers to entry (see Chapters 2, 5, 7 &amp; 8 of ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ by Saurabh Mukherjea). For example, it is highly unlikely that any paint company will be able to build an Enterprise Resource Planning system remotely comparable to what Asian Paints has. Hence Asian Paints’ working capital cycle at 8 days will remain a massive source of superior cashflows whilst its competitors continue to live with working capital cycles in excess of 100 days.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nFurther as Sameer Arora of Syntel highlights, older Indian firms are reluctant to update their old IT systems because of the heavy capex involved and the need to provide training to the workforce (with many of the unionised workers themselves having no interest in being trained). India’s PSUs are an obvious example of this resistance to tech change (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d204dca6f5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd204dca6f5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjSlTjIkoUZjiW1AdsvZukxcdyNw\">Link</a>).\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"4\"><strong>Lower cost of capital for the giants</strong>: India’s top 20 PAT generators fall into two broad buckets: (a) private sector companies which have superior free cash flow generation thanks to their ROE being significantly above their cost of equity eg. HDFC Bank, ITC, HDFC, TCS, etc; and (b) giant PSUs which get access to capital at a low cost because of their implicit sovereign guarantee. Smaller companies have access to neither source of capital. This in turn all but eliminates their chances of being able to compete with these leviathans. For example, ITC has over Rs 28K crore of cash on its balance sheet. In addition, ITC generates Rs 10K of free cashflow in a typical year. For any FMCG firm which isn’t a leviathan, competing with ITC’s cash machine is a difficult proposition.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<strong><u>Investment Implications</u></strong>\r\n<em>“…we find that firms in more concentrated industries experience significant abnormal stock returns, which indicates that a considerable portion of the gains accrues to shareholders. Prima facie, the positive and significant alphas connote a simple and profitable trading strategy, which is interesting in its own right. This finding also raises the question, why does the market not “get it” in the first place.”</em> - <strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3fa7bd2a53&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3fa7bd2a53%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGNAunZEvLxqDcm3oZXHi1D1nDbIQ\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743.\r\n\r\n<strong>Implication #1: Consistent Compounding by investing in clean, well-managed leviathans</strong>\r\nAs we have highlighted repeatedly in <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span>’ newsletters/blogs and in our books, dominant Indian companies’ very high ROCEs give them access to low cost capital which when reinvested sensibly in technology, distribution networks, new plants &amp; more products, allows compounding machines like HDFC Bank and TCS to give their shareholders superior returns with risk comparable to a Government of India bond. See our 14<sup>th</sup> June 2019 blog for a fuller exposition of this point: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=17dc622309&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D17dc622309%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHjolJzQIXbN8ij1RJRIxK5xhtzSA\">Crushing risk is more rewarding than chasing returns</a>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3636 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"853\" height=\"374\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Implication #2: Invest in the next wave of ‘top 20 PAT generators’</strong>\r\nWhilst the dominance of the leviathans continues to grow, the list of the top 20 PAT generators is far from static. In the above chart, the vertical axis represent the churn rate in the top 20 companies over a 10-year period. Eg. In the FY19 list of 20 most profitable Indian companies, there were only 9 companies which were present in the list of FY09. Hence the churn rate is 55% (11 companies/20 companies). In fact, in our January 4<sup>th</sup> 2019 blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=053dfcbd0f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D053dfcbd0f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGJXNKUEATSk95aZxg3XyhrpE9Pg\">How competitive advantage drives churn in the stockmarket</a> we had mentioned that the churn rate for BSE500 is 55-60% over a 10 year period and then explained why it is so by breaking the industry life cycle into four stages.\r\n\r\nThe churn rate among the top 20 PAT generators is also high at 55-60% implying that there is still a lot to play since the commanding heights of the Indian economy have not yet been locked down firmly. In fact, if you had invested in an equally weighted portfolio in FY09 of the 11 companies which have been added to the top 20 list of FY19, your total shareholder return CAGR would be 26% CAGR (FY09-FY19).\r\n\r\nSo which companies will be in the top 20 PAT generators list in FY29? Peering into the (murky) crystal ball, we see the following:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The giant PSUs will continue exiting from the list because of sub-par capital allocation (forced upon it by its largest shareholder) and because of the relentless need of the sovereign to exercise its patronage.</li>\r\n 	<li>Companies which are good capital allocators, whose promoters don’t fiddle with the figures and which have high barriers to entry are likely to enter the top 20 list. Here is a list of potential entrants (with their FY19 PAT ranking in brackets): Kotak Bank (21<sup>st</sup>), Axis Bank (29<sup>th</sup>), Bajaj Auto (30<sup>th</sup>), Bajaj Finance (35<sup>th</sup>), Eicher Motors (57<sup>th</sup>), Asian Paints (59<sup>th</sup>).</li>\r\n 	<li>Like other developed countries whose economies have formalised, the profit share of the top 20 PAT generators in India will also continue to increase from the current 70% to 80-90% due to the reasons mentioned above. By the time we finish our careers, we would be surprised if more than 20 Indian firms don’t take home 80% of India’s profits. If you care about understanding why this will happen, it is worth reading Thomas Piketty’s magisterial book ‘Capital In the 21<sup>st</sup> Century’ (2013). In Chapter 10 of this masterpiece he says, <em>“In all known societies, at all times, the least wealthy half of the population own virtually nothing….the top decile of the wealth hierarchy own a clear majority of what is to own (generally 60% of total wealth and sometimes as much as 90%); and the remainder of the population…own from 5-35% of all wealth.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Implication #3: Investors will need to use DCF models properly</strong>\r\nWhilst most investors learn DCF valuation early on their careers, the prevailing tendency is to use a cookie-cutter approach to DCF valuation (of the sort taught in academic courses which were designed in the pre-leviathan era). As explained in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d9e9c431c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3d9e9c431c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5DvVqpa5xDj08VwrnLcXZqcXn4A\">4<sup>th</sup> January newsletter</a>: <em>“An investor looking to buy and hold stocks over a long time period, needs to be able to differentiate between businesses which can deliver longevity of consistently healthy free cashflows and those that run a high degree of uncertainty in their fundamental prospects. This differentiation is essential, both, in order to avoid premature exits from investments in great quality franchises due to concerns around expensive valuations (e.g. P/E multiples higher than 30x), and to avoid being tempted into investing in inferior quality franchises just because they are trading at apparently cheap valuations (a 10x P/E multiple might actually be super-expensive).”</em>\r\n\r\nThe rise of the leviathans will force investors to think more deeply about how they fade ROCE to cost of capital in their DCF models. Given that for many of the firms mentioned so far in this note, ROCE or ROE has not faded to cost of capital over the past 20 years, investors who automatically assume that it will do so over the next 20 years will end up undervaluing the leviathans with potentially adverse consequences for the durability of their portfolios.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> and/or its advisory clients own HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Eicher, Bajaj Finance, TCS, Pidilite, Astral Poly, Page Industries, Berger Paints and ITC.\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Harsh Shah are CIO and Analyst respectively at <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> Investment Managers respectively (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a27bc1765e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da27bc1765e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHghbd2BKmDaDbg7sHPIjo4726i1w\"><em>www.<span class=\"il\">marcellus</span>.in</em></a><em>).</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3637 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"456\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3638 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"468\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3639 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"670\" height=\"466\" />\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=86d87150e1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D86d87150e1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGICiRqBob7AlpmojTWwvDD05g4pg\">https://<span class=\"il\">marcellus</span>.in/</a>\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Behold The Leviathan: The Remaking of Indian Capitalism', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'behold-the-leviathan-the-remaking-of-indian-capitalism', '', '', '2020-06-24 08:03:08', '2020-06-24 08:03:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3347', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(3307, 1, '2020-05-06 09:25:06', '2020-05-06 09:25:06', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>The historical underperformance over extended periods (2005-19 and 2005-17) of the BSE SmallCap index relative to the Nifty/BSE500 despite higher volatility/drawdowns highlights that the odds are stacked against small cap investors unless they invest in clean well-run small cap companies. We follow a robust investment process combining our quantitative frameworks and qualitative diligence to shortlist stocks for our Little Champs portfolio. The backtest results of our quantitative framework (CY10-CY19) and the live performance of our portfolio (since August 29, 2019) shows significantly better returns than BSE SmallCap, Nifty and BSE500 with similar levels of standard deviation/drawdown compared to Nifty/BSE500. Thus, unlike the BSE Smallcap index, our Little Champs deliver significantly superior risk adjusted returns over larger cap indices like the Nifty/BSE500.</strong></p>\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of our Little Champs Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.</p>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3315 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"360\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Broad-based small cap investing does not generate returns commensurate to volatility involved</u></strong>\r\n\r\nSmall firms’ revenues and profits tend to be more volatile than those of larger firms due to dependence on: (a) a single line of business; (b) a small group of people running the show; and (c) limited free float &amp; trading volumes which accentuates the good or bad impacts of any macro/company specific developments. Naturally, therefore, investors expect higher returns from smallcaps (relative to larger caps) to compensate for the higher uncertainty involved in small cap investing.\r\n\r\nHowever, an analysis of the BSE SmallCap’s performance over the last 14 years shows that it does NOT provide this extra return that investors expect to get for the extra risk they are taking. From September 2005 to December 2019, the index has delivered a total return CAGR of 8.9% compared to the Nifty’s 13.0% and BSE500’s 12.5% over the same period (these returns include dividends &amp; buybacks) – see exhibit 2. Even if one were to exclude CY2018 and CY2019 - which were particularly weak years for small caps - and limit the analysis until December 2017, the BSE SmallCap’s performance on a risk-adjusted basis significantly lags that of the Nifty’s and the BSE500’s (see exhibit 3 below).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3309 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"313\" />\r\n\r\nWhile small caps typically deliver higher returns (vs Nifty and BSE500) in a rising/bull market, they also decline more sharply during market downturns. Further, most small caps are unable to survive the periods where the business cycle turns downwards. In fact, a cyclical economic downturn often structurally damages small cap companies (for example – as they enter a persistent cycle of indebtedness). Further, in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=590443ed62&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D590443ed62%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820765000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGJcUcQXJ1Iz4WNQYQNsNjNaIXovw\">December 2019</a> Little Champs newsletter “The importance of accounting quality”, we highlighted the preponderance of fraudulent companies (shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation) in the small caps space. Such frauds typically come to the fore during bear markets. As a result, if we combine all the years with negative returns for the BSE SmallCap since 2005, the index value would have eroded by 90% compared to 55% and 67% declines for Nifty and BSE500 respectively. At the same time, BSE SmallCap’s relatively outperformance during years of positive returns have been unable to close the deficit (arising from market downturns) with Nifty and BSE500. Hence, BSE SmallCap has been unable to generate higher risk-adjusted returns over September 2005-December 2019. So, why then does Marcellus have a small cap portfolio?\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Enormously favourable risk-rewards, however, in “Quality” Small cap investing</u></strong>\r\nThe above explained challenges in the broader small cap space, does not mean that there is no money to be made in small caps. <strong>In fact, as highlighted in our previous newsletters, there is an enormous amount of money to be made by investing in high quality small caps. </strong>We produce a couple of charts from one of our earlier newsletters which explains that investing in the best quality small caps generates much higher returns than investing in the best quality mid-caps and large caps.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3310 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"346\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>Marcellus’ Investment process to identify ‘high quality’ small caps</strong>\r\nWe use the following process to build a portfolio of high-quality small cap names for our Little Champs PMS. The process is broadly divided into two parts: <strong>(a)</strong> Use of quantitative frameworks to help shorten the large universe of more than 1,000 small caps companies into a researchable universe of 40 companies; and <strong>(b)</strong> conducting deep dive research &amp; diligence on these 40 companies to build a final portfolio of around 15 stocks\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3311 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"637\" height=\"362\" />\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Using our in-house Quantitative frameworks to shortlist high quality names:</strong>We use the following two quantitative frameworks to arrive a shortlist of companies:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Our forensic accounting framework: </strong>Evaluating the accounting quality of a company needs to be a cornerstone of any investment process in India. We at Marcellus have developed a set of 12 ratios that help to grade companies on their accounting quality. The selection of these ratios has been inspired by Howard M. Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting called ‘Financial Shenanigans’. More details about our forensic framework can be found in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fae3054c2a&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfae3054c2a%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820765000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH80jakpowNBev3gaOme5nhliQwJQ\">December 2019</a> newsletter. We eliminate the companies which score in the lowest 40% on our forensic framework.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Our competitive advantage/capital allocation framework </strong>uses financial parameters like revenue growth, consistency in gross margin, consistency in interest coverage, improvement in working capital and improvement in fixed assets turnover to rank the companies which clear our forensic framework explained above. We then select companies which score above average on all the above five individual parameters AND deliver metrics above our thresholds on latest year RoCE and net debt-equity levels.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After running both of the above frameworks, we are left with a shortlist of about 40 companies. Essentially, this shortlist consists of clean companies which have demonstrated ability to grow efficiently (by maintaining pricing and balance sheet discipline), generate cash and redeploy that cash to grow further.<strong> </strong><em><strong>Essentially, we are using quantitative metrics to identify about 40 companies which are self-sustaining cash machines.</strong></em></p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Backtesting results of our frameworks suggest significantly higher risk-adjusted returns vs BSE Smallcap and even the Nifty/BSE500: </strong>We have backtested the shortlists from the above frameworks since CY2010 to CY2019 and the results generated by the Little Champs algorithm (i.e. just using the quantitative framework without any bottom-up research) has not only outperformed the BSE SmallCap index but also given significantly higher risk-adjusted returns compared to the Nifty and the BSE500 as shown in the below exhibits.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3312 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"633\" height=\"354\" />\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Using Bottom-up research on our quant shortlist to find the very best amongst the best</strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 40 stocks shortlisted by our screening frameworks are then taken up for deep dive research and diligence by Marcellus’ research team. Besides analysis of the published financials and other secondary data, we aim to build insights into the companies through interacting with a host of primary data network sources. Here, we draw upon our following strengths:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Forensic accounting skills – </strong>We have a deep pool of accounting talent in our team with every single one of our seven analysts being qualified Chartered Accountants and/or Chartered Financial Analysts who have cumulatively done more than 1,000 bespoke accounting projects over the last ten years.</li>\r\n 	<li> <strong>Access to primary data and insights – </strong>The team has built a pan-India network of primary data sources which include dealers, distributors, promoters, ex-employees, customers, vendors, etc.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besides getting comfort on the management’s integrity and corporate culture, our diligence is also focussed towards understanding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, their track record of dealing with technological or competitive disruptions and the wisdom of their capital allocation decisions. We also aim to find companies who are able to achieve the rare combination of high RoCEs with high reinvestment rates without relying upon acquisitions to deliver growth.</p>\r\n<strong>Our live portfolio has delivered better returns with lower volatility &amp; drawdowns than even Nifty</strong>\r\n\r\nCurrently, we have 14 stocks in our Little Champs portfolio – the key portfolio metrics compared to the indices are shown in the exhibit below. Since the portfolio went live on August 29, 2019, it has delivered a ‘positive’ return of 8% compared to a ‘decline’ of 9-10% in Nifty, BSE500 and BSE Smallcap indices. More importantly, the standard deviation for the portfolio has been lower than the Nifty and drawdown almost similar to these large cap indices. While one can argue that portfolio is just about eight months old, its relative resilience (particularly compared to Nifty) during one of the worst market meltdowns in recent years should give investors confidence. The fundamental reasons for Little Champs’ resilience during the Covid crisis are described in detail in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55f4da0c35&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55f4da0c35%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820766000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGakcmySrrZuHya6j3rtp2OFBNaHw\">April 2020</a>  newsletter. To reiterate the key point made in our April 7<sup>th</sup> newsletter, <em>“We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a potential global recession.”</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3313 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"601\" height=\"253\" />', 'Little Champs Punch Hard When It Matters', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'little-champs-punch-hard-when-it-matters', '', '', '2020-05-06 09:45:59', '2020-05-06 09:45:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3307', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3314, 1, '2020-05-06 09:26:12', '2020-05-06 09:26:12', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>The historical underperformance over extended periods (2005-19 and 2005-17) of the BSE SmallCap index relative to the Nifty/BSE500 despite higher volatility/drawdowns highlights that the odds are stacked against small cap investors unless they invest in clean well-run small cap companies. We follow a robust investment process combining our quantitative frameworks and qualitative diligence to shortlist stocks for our Little Champs portfolio. The backtest results of our quantitative framework (CY10-CY19) and the live performance of our portfolio (since August 29, 2019) shows significantly better returns than BSE SmallCap, Nifty and BSE500 with similar levels of standard deviation/drawdown compared to Nifty/BSE500. Thus, unlike the BSE Smallcap index, our Little Champs deliver significantly superior risk adjusted returns over larger cap indices like the Nifty/BSE500.</strong></p>\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\n\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of our Little Champs Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.</p>\n&nbsp;\n\n<strong><u>Broad-based small cap investing does not generate returns commensurate to volatility involved</u></strong>\n\nSmall firms’ revenues and profits tend to be more volatile than those of larger firms due to dependence on: (a) a single line of business; (b) a small group of people running the show; and (c) limited free float &amp; trading volumes which accentuates the good or bad impacts of any macro/company specific developments. Naturally, therefore, investors expect higher returns from smallcaps (relative to larger caps) to compensate for the higher uncertainty involved in small cap investing.\n\nHowever, an analysis of the BSE SmallCap’s performance over the last 14 years shows that it does NOT provide this extra return that investors expect to get for the extra risk they are taking. From September 2005 to December 2019, the index has delivered a total return CAGR of 8.9% compared to the Nifty’s 13.0% and BSE500’s 12.5% over the same period (these returns include dividends &amp; buybacks) – see exhibit 2. Even if one were to exclude CY2018 and CY2019 - which were particularly weak years for small caps - and limit the analysis until December 2017, the BSE SmallCap’s performance on a risk-adjusted basis significantly lags that of the Nifty’s and the BSE500’s (see exhibit 3 below).\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3309 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"313\" />\n\nWhile small caps typically deliver higher returns (vs Nifty and BSE500) in a rising/bull market, they also decline more sharply during market downturns. Further, most small caps are unable to survive the periods where the business cycle turns downwards. In fact, a cyclical economic downturn often structurally damages small cap companies (for example – as they enter a persistent cycle of indebtedness). Further, in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=590443ed62&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D590443ed62%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820765000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGJcUcQXJ1Iz4WNQYQNsNjNaIXovw\">December 2019</a> Little Champs newsletter “The importance of accounting quality”, we highlighted the preponderance of fraudulent companies (shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation) in the small caps space. Such frauds typically come to the fore during bear markets. As a result, if we combine all the years with negative returns for the BSE SmallCap since 2005, the index value would have eroded by 90% compared to 55% and 67% declines for Nifty and BSE500 respectively. At the same time, BSE SmallCap’s relatively outperformance during years of positive returns have been unable to close the deficit (arising from market downturns) with Nifty and BSE500. Hence, BSE SmallCap has been unable to generate higher risk-adjusted returns over September 2005-December 2019. So, why then does Marcellus have a small cap portfolio?\n\n<strong><u>Enormously favourable risk-rewards, however, in “Quality” Small cap investing</u></strong>\nThe above explained challenges in the broader small cap space, does not mean that there is no money to be made in small caps. <strong>In fact, as highlighted in our previous newsletters, there is an enormous amount of money to be made by investing in high quality small caps. </strong>We produce a couple of charts from one of our earlier newsletters which explains that investing in the best quality small caps generates much higher returns than investing in the best quality mid-caps and large caps.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3310 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"346\" />\n\n<strong>Marcellus’ Investment process to identify ‘high quality’ small caps</strong>\nWe use the following process to build a portfolio of high-quality small cap names for our Little Champs PMS. The process is broadly divided into two parts: <strong>(a)</strong> Use of quantitative frameworks to help shorten the large universe of more than 1,000 small caps companies into a researchable universe of 40 companies; and <strong>(b)</strong> conducting deep dive research &amp; diligence on these 40 companies to build a final portfolio of around 15 stocks\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3311 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture04.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"637\" height=\"362\" />\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Using our in-house Quantitative frameworks to shortlist high quality names:</strong>We use the following two quantitative frameworks to arrive a shortlist of companies:</p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><strong>Our forensic accounting framework: </strong>Evaluating the accounting quality of a company needs to be a cornerstone of any investment process in India. We at Marcellus have developed a set of 12 ratios that help to grade companies on their accounting quality. The selection of these ratios has been inspired by Howard M. Schilit’s legendary book on forensic accounting called ‘Financial Shenanigans’. More details about our forensic framework can be found in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fae3054c2a&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfae3054c2a%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820765000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH80jakpowNBev3gaOme5nhliQwJQ\">December 2019</a> newsletter. We eliminate the companies which score in the lowest 40% on our forensic framework.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><strong>Our competitive advantage/capital allocation framework </strong>uses financial parameters like revenue growth, consistency in gross margin, consistency in interest coverage, improvement in working capital and improvement in fixed assets turnover to rank the companies which clear our forensic framework explained above. We then select companies which score above average on all the above five individual parameters AND deliver metrics above our thresholds on latest year RoCE and net debt-equity levels.</li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After running both of the above frameworks, we are left with a shortlist of about 40 companies. Essentially, this shortlist consists of clean companies which have demonstrated ability to grow efficiently (by maintaining pricing and balance sheet discipline), generate cash and redeploy that cash to grow further.<strong> </strong><em><strong>Essentially, we are using quantitative metrics to identify about 40 companies which are self-sustaining cash machines.</strong></em></p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><strong>Backtesting results of our frameworks suggest significantly higher risk-adjusted returns vs BSE Smallcap and even the Nifty/BSE500: </strong>We have backtested the shortlists from the above frameworks since CY2010 to CY2019 and the results generated by the Little Champs algorithm (i.e. just using the quantitative framework without any bottom-up research) has not only outperformed the BSE SmallCap index but also given significantly higher risk-adjusted returns compared to the Nifty and the BSE500 as shown in the below exhibits.</li>\n</ul>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3312 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"633\" height=\"354\" />\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Using Bottom-up research on our quant shortlist to find the very best amongst the best</strong></p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The 40 stocks shortlisted by our screening frameworks are then taken up for deep dive research and diligence by Marcellus’ research team. Besides analysis of the published financials and other secondary data, we aim to build insights into the companies through interacting with a host of primary data network sources. Here, we draw upon our following strengths:</p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><strong>Forensic accounting skills – </strong>We have a deep pool of accounting talent in our team with every single one of our seven analysts being qualified Chartered Accountants and/or Chartered Financial Analysts who have cumulatively done more than 1,000 bespoke accounting projects over the last ten years.</li>\n 	<li> <strong>Access to primary data and insights – </strong>The team has built a pan-India network of primary data sources which include dealers, distributors, promoters, ex-employees, customers, vendors, etc.</li>\n</ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besides getting comfort on the management’s integrity and corporate culture, our diligence is also focussed towards understanding the sources of the competitive advantages of these companies, their track record of dealing with technological or competitive disruptions and the wisdom of their capital allocation decisions. We also aim to find companies who are able to achieve the rare combination of high RoCEs with high reinvestment rates without relying upon acquisitions to deliver growth.</p>\n<strong>Our live portfolio has delivered better returns with lower volatility &amp; drawdowns than even Nifty</strong>\n\nCurrently, we have 14 stocks in our Little Champs portfolio – the key portfolio metrics compared to the indices are shown in the exhibit below. Since the portfolio went live on August 29, 2019, it has delivered a ‘positive’ return of 8% compared to a ‘decline’ of 9-10% in Nifty, BSE500 and BSE Smallcap indices. More importantly, the standard deviation for the portfolio has been lower than the Nifty and drawdown almost similar to these large cap indices. While one can argue that portfolio is just about eight months old, its relative resilience (particularly compared to Nifty) during one of the worst market meltdowns in recent years should give investors confidence. The fundamental reasons for Little Champs’ resilience during the Covid crisis are described in detail in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=55f4da0c35&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D55f4da0c35%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588827820766000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGakcmySrrZuHya6j3rtp2OFBNaHw\">April 2020</a>  newsletter. To reiterate the key point made in our April 7<sup>th</sup> newsletter, <em>“We see limited impact of COVID-19 on Little Champs’ fundamentals beyond the short-term business disruptions given: (i) their strong balance sheets will help them navigate the near-term stress much better than leveraged peers; and (ii) export oriented portfolio companies’ exposure is mostly in essential products (pharma, agro, food) or replacement markets rendering immunity from a potential global recession.”</em>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3313 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Capture6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"601\" height=\"253\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;', 'Little Champs Punch Hard When It Matters', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3307-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-05-06 09:26:12', '2020-05-06 09:26:12', '', 3307, 'https://marcellus.in/3307-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3391, 1, '2020-05-21 02:44:20', '2020-05-21 02:44:20', '', 'Marcellus LittleChamps Webinar with Dr Mark Mobius and Rajesh Sehgal | Equanimity | 20th May 2020', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-littlechamps-webinar-with-dr-mark-mobius-and-rajesh-sehgal-equanimity-20th-may-2020', '', '', '2020-07-08 06:15:01', '2020-07-08 06:15:01', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3391', 0, 'video', '', 0),
(3390, 1, '2020-05-20 05:47:31', '2020-05-20 05:47:31', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-20 05:47:31', '2020-05-20 05:47:31', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3488, 1, '2020-06-09 04:23:27', '2020-06-09 04:23:27', 'There is plenty of talk in India these days regarding how India can try to pull business away from China in the wake of Covid. Whilst James Crabtree pours cold water on Indian hopes in his piece e in the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d059ce0ed6&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd059ce0ed6%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEt2I_OnPriWwX6kTJaG9wqAhKZ_A\">Nikkei Asian Review</a>, Sirin Kale comes at the issue from a different and arguably more instructive angle. Kale’s long essay in Wired highlights that manufacturing in China and then selling the produce to the West is no longer just the preserve of Fortune500 companies. In fact, millions of entrepreneurs across the world are earning a living doing just that. Kale’s essay describes a loosely structured community of entrepreneurs – called “dropshippers” – living in the Indonesian island of Bali in a town called Canggu:\r\n<em>“The town, once a stop-off for backpackers en route to Ubud’s yoga studios and hippy scene, has in recent years become a hub for self-described “digital nomads”. In Canggu’s cafés, barefoot westerners run fledgling companies from MacBook Pros. When not talking Facebook ads or cost-per-click, they socialise exclusively with each other….Inside the city’s co-working spaces…people are building business empires selling products they’ve never handled, from countries they’ve never visited, to consumers they’ve never met. Welcome to the world of dropshipping.</em>\r\n<em>Dropshipping is a \"fulfilment\" method. At one end of the supply chain, an entrepreneur identifies a product – usually through Chinese e-commerce platform AliExpress – which they think they can sell to European or American consumers. They create a website using Shopify, and identify and target buyers, typically using Facebook ads, although you will find dropshippers on other platforms, including Instagram, or selling through marketplaces such as online homeware store Wayfair.</em>\r\n<em>When an order is received, the dropshipper purchases the item through AliExpress, and has it shipped directly to the buyer, pocketing their mark-up minus marketing spend. At no point does a dropshipper hold stock: they are simply the middleman in a globalised supply chain.</em>\r\n<em>Successful dropshippers often solve so-called “pain points”. Perhaps you like to go running with your dog, but find holding the lead a chore. A dropshipper finds a hands-free running leash on AliExpress, and targets it via Facebook to dog-loving runners. They’ll create a video showcasing its benefits (videos outperform imagery), and then haunt you with that video until you give in and purchase the item…”</em>\r\nOnce you read this piece you realise that this is simply a variant of the way millions of Indian SME traders do business – they identify a need in India, say cellphone batteries, and then find a source in China who can fulfil that need. The only difference is that Indian SME traders are not using social media as effectively as the dropshippers in Canggu who have turned their offices into Youtube or Facebook broadcasting platforms.\r\nIn a further echo of what happens in India, Dropshipping is finding takers amongst educated Western youth who can’t land the lucrative jobs on Wall Street that they once dreamt off: <em>““Most of my life, I’ve never had strong ambitions to have a lot of money,” says Whitaker. “But I really think if you’re poor or middle-class, you’re going to get fucked in the next 20 years. It’s going to get, like, really bad.” Dropshipping offers these men a way to accrue wealth outside of the stultifying confines of corporate culture, and without formal qualifications – many of the dropshippers I meet are college dropouts.”</em>\r\nThe economics of dropshipping is however depressingly similar to what you see in large industries with low barriers to entry: a few players make all the money and the rest of the riff raff just runs around frenetically whilst earning very little: <em>“Louden, who is 28, has the affable, languid demeanor of the well-mannered Virginia boy…In Chiang Mai, he met a dropshipper who introduced him to remote working. Louden worked for free for other dropshippers to learn the ropes….This year, his Shopify records show he’ll clear about $90,000 (£69,000) in personal profit. He describes dropshipping as a “real-life video game”, albeit one he doesn’t seem to enjoy an awful lot. “When you do dropshipping and Facebook ads, it’s like going to the casino and pressing the slot machine, and based off what happens, that’s how your emotions are going to be,” he says…Plenty of people never make it. You need money to start an online store and invest in marketing, and it’s easy to burn through cash while trying to figure out what sells.”</em>', '‘It’s bullshit’: Inside the weird, get-rich-quick world of dropshipping', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3487-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:23:27', '2020-06-09 04:23:27', '', 3487, 'https://marcellus.in/3487-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3665, 1, '2020-06-28 18:21:07', '2020-06-28 18:21:07', '', 'Schedule A', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'schedule-a-blank', '', '', '2020-06-28 18:21:30', '2020-06-28 18:21:30', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Schedule-A-Blank.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3333, 1, '2020-05-11 03:46:09', '2020-05-11 03:46:09', 'In our conversations with investors, we find the emphasis is largely around returns and very little attention is paid to risk. In this piece, Ajit Dayal, who is not one to pull his punches, especially when it comes to the mutual fund industry, brings out the perils of not using risk-adjusted returns in the context of the recent debt mutual fund fiasco. He argues why the risk-reward for debt funds is simply unsuitable for retail investors to whom these funds have been sold as a superior return product to fixed deposits without a note on the attendant risks.:\r\n<em>“..there are a range of funds that invest in debt instruments: Liquid fund, Ultra-short liquid fund, credit fund, debt fund and others - each of which have a prescribed combination of securities issued by the government and securities issued by the private sector. The rating agencies categorise these various securities on a sliding scale basis from supposedly safest AAA and sliding down to default. The AAA paper carries a lower interest and the less credit worthy company gives a higher rate of interest precisely because it is more risky. It is a simple risk-return equation which is rarely explained in detail to the less sophisticated investors. Fund managers and their CEOs have been irresponsible and have allowed their funds to invest in less safe debt instruments even in the liquid and ultra-short funds category to enhance their NAVs and attract more AuM”</em>\r\nHe holds the rating agencies accountable too:\r\n<em>“What makes the debt market more dangerous is that many debt instrument issued by a company can barely be understood and assessed by credit rating agencies with specialised teams. Credit rating agencies continue to falter and rarely accurately predict a company about to default. The credit rating agencies act more like the technician at the morgue pouting over a dead body than a nutritionist recommending a healthy portfolio to stay in good shape. It is a tough business. If credit agencies are not able to catch the collapse, if well-informed corporate treasurers struggle with the basics of risk and return, how is an individual investor expected to understand the underlying risk in a portfolio that promises higher returns? Why are these risky funds being sold to retail investors? Why is any fixed-income fund with any \"credit risk\" being sold to a retail investor?”</em>\r\nHe then goes on to highlight why the whole thing shouldn’t be passed off as a Black Swan event caused by the Covid induced market stress, for this isn’t a Black Swan as market dislocations like this are not that rare anymore citing several such events over the past three decades. So, given the risk profile of the funds, this was an outcome of non-trivial probability.\r\n<em>“The claim on national TV by some fund managers that this is a black swan - an unpredictable event beyond what is normally expected - is a falsehood.</em>\r\n<em>This is a black crow event: it is common-place and frequent to have these dislocations. When you buy junk bonds to fool the investors into believing you are giving good returns, a bad outcome is guaranteed. COVID is the excuse, their greed for AuM is the reason.</em>\r\n<em>Since India opened its economy in 1991 and since the birth of the mutual fund industry in 1993 - with the liberalisation of the capital markets - the AMCs have been witness to and impacted by multiple, so-called, black-swan events. Given their frequency, one can argue these exceptional, unanticipated events are getting to be as common place as black crows sitting by the window screaming for some money to be thrown their way…[cites a long list of market disclocations]…That works out to 17 black swan events over 26 years - each of which have caused a dislocation in the world and in India. 15 of these events were not really black swan events (9/11; SARS were black swan events) - they were results of excessive greed and lack of risk assessment by the perpetrators of these crisis: the banks and mutual funds”</em>\r\nHe also warns against a bailout citing moral hazard:\r\n<em>“Now that the mutual fund industry has loaded up on debt issued by private companies (many unlisted), and these companies are in trouble, they are back at SEBI, RBI and Ministry of Finance for a rescue package. Money that could be used to build hospitals, feed the migrant workers, or be used as investments to kick-start a dead economy will be diverted to a bailout.</em>\r\n<em>Some give the example of the UTI bailout as a profitable outcome for the government. That is a false comparison. The UTI bailout was the government taking over a large equity portfolio to square off defined obligations to unit holders. UTI\'s special investment purpose vehicle was nationalized. UTI AMC was owned by the government. The government, to our knowledge, is not nationalising the AMCs who are asking for help - but maybe they should take the AMCs over for a nominal price.</em>\r\n<em>The rescue package envisages the government and the RBI being offered the illiquid debt and rubbish junk bonds owned by the mutual funds because no one else wants them. There is a difference between lack of liquidity of a security due to market conditions (a genuine problem) and owning some ridiculous debt of a bad company which these mutual funds invested in because that company offered 2% more interest than safer government bonds.</em>\r\n<em>Make no mistake about it: many fund managers invested in companies that even a 5th standard child would not invest in. They invested with their eyes wide open for a deliberate reason: they could show a higher return and NAV for their mutual fund. Then this higher return could be waved at unsuspecting investors by the distribution channels to collect more AuM from innocent individual investors.</em>\r\n<em>More AuM meant more revenues and more profits for the AMC.</em>\r\n<em>More profits for the AMC meant more bonuses for the fund managers and the CEOs.</em>\r\n<em>Bad incentives lead to bad outcomes.</em>\r\n<em>It is as simple as that. It always has been: whether it was in the Indian debt funds or in the loans given by banks for mortgages in USA in 2004.”</em>', 'Black swans, Black crows and Fund lies', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'black-swans-black-crows-and-fund-lies', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:04:22', '2020-05-12 04:04:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3333', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3334, 1, '2020-05-12 04:04:22', '2020-05-12 04:04:22', 'In our conversations with investors, we find the emphasis is largely around returns and very little attention is paid to risk. In this piece, Ajit Dayal, who is not one to pull his punches, especially when it comes to the mutual fund industry, brings out the perils of not using risk-adjusted returns in the context of the recent debt mutual fund fiasco. He argues why the risk-reward for debt funds is simply unsuitable for retail investors to whom these funds have been sold as a superior return product to fixed deposits without a note on the attendant risks.:\r\n<em>“..there are a range of funds that invest in debt instruments: Liquid fund, Ultra-short liquid fund, credit fund, debt fund and others - each of which have a prescribed combination of securities issued by the government and securities issued by the private sector. The rating agencies categorise these various securities on a sliding scale basis from supposedly safest AAA and sliding down to default. The AAA paper carries a lower interest and the less credit worthy company gives a higher rate of interest precisely because it is more risky. It is a simple risk-return equation which is rarely explained in detail to the less sophisticated investors. Fund managers and their CEOs have been irresponsible and have allowed their funds to invest in less safe debt instruments even in the liquid and ultra-short funds category to enhance their NAVs and attract more AuM”</em>\r\nHe holds the rating agencies accountable too:\r\n<em>“What makes the debt market more dangerous is that many debt instrument issued by a company can barely be understood and assessed by credit rating agencies with specialised teams. Credit rating agencies continue to falter and rarely accurately predict a company about to default. The credit rating agencies act more like the technician at the morgue pouting over a dead body than a nutritionist recommending a healthy portfolio to stay in good shape. It is a tough business. If credit agencies are not able to catch the collapse, if well-informed corporate treasurers struggle with the basics of risk and return, how is an individual investor expected to understand the underlying risk in a portfolio that promises higher returns? Why are these risky funds being sold to retail investors? Why is any fixed-income fund with any \"credit risk\" being sold to a retail investor?”</em>\r\nHe then goes on to highlight why the whole thing shouldn’t be passed off as a Black Swan event caused by the Covid induced market stress, for this isn’t a Black Swan as market dislocations like this are not that rare anymore citing several such events over the past three decades. So, given the risk profile of the funds, this was an outcome of non-trivial probability.\r\n<em>“The claim on national TV by some fund managers that this is a black swan - an unpredictable event beyond what is normally expected - is a falsehood.</em>\r\n<em>This is a black crow event: it is common-place and frequent to have these dislocations. When you buy junk bonds to fool the investors into believing you are giving good returns, a bad outcome is guaranteed. COVID is the excuse, their greed for AuM is the reason.</em>\r\n<em>Since India opened its economy in 1991 and since the birth of the mutual fund industry in 1993 - with the liberalisation of the capital markets - the AMCs have been witness to and impacted by multiple, so-called, black-swan events. Given their frequency, one can argue these exceptional, unanticipated events are getting to be as common place as black crows sitting by the window screaming for some money to be thrown their way…[cites a long list of market disclocations]…That works out to 17 black swan events over 26 years - each of which have caused a dislocation in the world and in India. 15 of these events were not really black swan events (9/11; SARS were black swan events) - they were results of excessive greed and lack of risk assessment by the perpetrators of these crisis: the banks and mutual funds”</em>\r\nHe also warns against a bailout citing moral hazard:\r\n<em>“Now that the mutual fund industry has loaded up on debt issued by private companies (many unlisted), and these companies are in trouble, they are back at SEBI, RBI and Ministry of Finance for a rescue package. Money that could be used to build hospitals, feed the migrant workers, or be used as investments to kick-start a dead economy will be diverted to a bailout.</em>\r\n<em>Some give the example of the UTI bailout as a profitable outcome for the government. That is a false comparison. The UTI bailout was the government taking over a large equity portfolio to square off defined obligations to unit holders. UTI\'s special investment purpose vehicle was nationalized. UTI AMC was owned by the government. The government, to our knowledge, is not nationalising the AMCs who are asking for help - but maybe they should take the AMCs over for a nominal price.</em>\r\n<em>The rescue package envisages the government and the RBI being offered the illiquid debt and rubbish junk bonds owned by the mutual funds because no one else wants them. There is a difference between lack of liquidity of a security due to market conditions (a genuine problem) and owning some ridiculous debt of a bad company which these mutual funds invested in because that company offered 2% more interest than safer government bonds.</em>\r\n<em>Make no mistake about it: many fund managers invested in companies that even a 5th standard child would not invest in. They invested with their eyes wide open for a deliberate reason: they could show a higher return and NAV for their mutual fund. Then this higher return could be waved at unsuspecting investors by the distribution channels to collect more AuM from innocent individual investors.</em>\r\n<em>More AuM meant more revenues and more profits for the AMC.</em>\r\n<em>More profits for the AMC meant more bonuses for the fund managers and the CEOs.</em>\r\n<em>Bad incentives lead to bad outcomes.</em>\r\n<em>It is as simple as that. It always has been: whether it was in the Indian debt funds or in the loans given by banks for mortgages in USA in 2004.”</em>', 'Black swans, Black crows and Fund lies', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3333-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:04:22', '2020-05-12 04:04:22', '', 3333, 'https://marcellus.in/3333-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3335, 1, '2020-05-11 04:04:44', '2020-05-11 04:04:44', '<div>Last week, we highlighted a piece in The Economist which highlighted that the ongoing economic crisis will bring to the fore a decade’s worth of accounting fraud (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a48174cecd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da48174cecd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNETDoGOyp7Z1nqHPT813EAnc7BFhg\">https://www.economist.com/<wbr />business/2020/04/18/the-<wbr />economic-crisis-will-expose-a-<wbr />decades-worth-of-corporate-<wbr />fraud</a>). We also highlighted one of our older blogs where we had laid out the link between liquidity crunches and accounting fraud – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=67e5eeb51b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D67e5eeb51b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOtNelXnaEixHj2-E4hX332RvlOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />accounting-fraud-and-<wbr />liquidity-crunches-are-<wbr />bedfellows/</a>.\r\nGiven that accounting fraud is the single biggest risk facing investors in the Indian market (by our estimate, 80% of listed Indian companies fiddle their figures), we were intrigued by the coverage given by the Indian Express to alleged accounting irregularities at the now bankrupt travel firm Cox and Kings. As the Indian Express says, <em>“Cox and Kings was sent to bankruptcy court in October 2019, after it defaulted on payments. While the promoter group owns 12.20 per cent shares in the company, the public owns the remaining 87.80 per cent. The travel and tour company owes Rs 5,500 crore to banks and financial institutions.”</em>\r\nSo how did the Indian Express build such a detailed picture of the alleged fraud that was perpetrated? <em>“Records of the audit, done in February 2020 by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) at the behest of lender Yes Bank, and official records accessed by The Indian Express detail how the company allegedly fudged records and window-dressed its figures.”</em>\r\nThe Cox &amp; Kings episode has expanded our knowledge of accounting shenanigans in three different ways:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you trust the CFO?</strong> We tend to focus overly on the Promoter and his role in perpetrating accounting fraud. That could be a mistake. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“The investigation has found that Cox and Kings gave Rs 1,100 crore to Alok Industries, a stressed firm that went bankrupt in 2017, even as the travel firm did not have any business relationship with the company. Significantly, when the loan was given, the Chief Financial Officer of Alok Industries was Sunil Khandelwal, who is also brother of Cox &amp; Kings CFO Anil Khandelwal.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you believe the ‘related party’ disclosures in the annual report?</strong> We tend to take at face value the related party disclosures given in an annual report. That too could be a mistake. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“Apart from this, in financial year 2019 alone, Cox &amp; Kings loaned Rs 589 crore to at least 11 related parties “without executing loan agreements”. “Prima facie it appears that these loans have been granted to related parties without obtaining the requisite approvals/documentation, which raises a suspicion that these transactions have been done with the intent of siphoning off funds,” said the investigation report.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you understand how the circular flow of funds can be used to create a false &amp; misleading picture of a listed company’s credit worthiness and its access to debt finance?</strong> We know about circular trading in the stockmarket. Its cousin brother in the debt market is a circular flow of loans which deludes investors into having greater faith in the balance sheet than they should. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“…a firm promoted by Cox and Kings, <u>Ezeego One Travel and Tours Ltd, allegedly “siphoned” Rs 150 crore it borrowed from Yes Bank and invested it in Redkite Capital.</u> This was done in two tranches between January 2018 and March 2019 through non-convertible debentures (NCDs).</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Redkite Capital, set up in 2010, is owned by four firms controlled by Anil Khandelwal, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Cox and Kings; his father, Om Prakash Khandelwal; Naresh Jain, the internal auditor of Cox and Kings; and the Jain and Khandelwal family.</em>\r\n<em><u>Redkite, records show, used the Rs 150 crore raised from Ezeego to acquire a controlling stake of 32.81 per cent in a government-promoted financial institution, Tourism Finance Corporation of India (TFCI)</u></em><em>, between February and March 2019 after the approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)….Probe records show that Ezeego did not disclose its first investment of Rs 80 crore in Redkite Capital in January 2018, in its audited balance sheets of that financial year.</em>\r\n<em>Significantly, the second tranche of investment of Rs 70 crore was done by Ezeego on March 30, 2019, after it had defaulted on its loan payment obligation to Yes Bank. The bank that has an exposure of Rs 945 crore to Ezeego reported the company account as fraud to the RBI in February 2020.</em>\r\n<em>TFCI, a listed non-banking financial company (NBFC), was set up in 1988 by IFCI Ltd as an All India Financial Institution for funding tourism projects…Apart from Redkite Capital, the other shareholders of TFCI include IFCI (0.67%), LIC (3.73%), Oriental Insurance Co Ltd (1.07%), Tamaka Capital (Mauritius) Ltd (3%) and Ko</em>ppara Sajeeve Thomas (5%). General public holds around 30.74 per cent of TFCI.\r\n<em><u>Significantly, TFCI is also one of the lenders of Cox and Kings</u>.The bankrupt travel firm owes about Rs 100 crore to TFCI, according to data obtained from the Registrar of Companies (RoC).\r\nThis loan was given to Cox and Kings before Redkite Capital became the majority shareholder of TFCI. Records show that Redkite, immediately after acquiring the majority stake in TFCI, pledged shares of TFCI (as collateral) to raise Rs 85 crore from lenders.”</em>\r\nThe underlining above is ours as we seek to understand what looks like a triangular flow of funds i.e. Ezeego (a firm promoted by Cox &amp; Kings) to Redkite to TFCI to Cox and Kings. Understanding these triangular flows should become a staple of financial analysis in India.\r\nAll of that being said, the Cox &amp; Kings story does have many familiar elements which are standard in accounting blowups in India eg. revenues from customers who seem to have vanished into thin air and cash in bank accounts which cannot be found. (Remember Satyam every time you feel good about seeing a company post solid revenue growth and show healthy cash in bank.)\r\nWhat accounting blow-ups in India are highlighting is that however clever we might be with our forensic toolkit, ultimately if a determined promoter and a skilful CFO join hands, they can make a fool out of all of us. That sobering thought should keep us from feeling smug about our investment returns.</div>', 'Cox and Kings Dossier – Parts 1 & 2: Audit uncovers siphoning of crores, fudging of records and bogus sales', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'cox-and-kings-dossier-parts-1-2-audit-uncovers-siphoning-of-crores-fudging-of-records-and-bogus-sales', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:18:52', '2020-05-12 04:18:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3335', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3336, 1, '2020-05-12 04:06:58', '2020-05-12 04:06:58', '<div>Last week, we highlighted a piece in The Economist which highlighted that the ongoing economic crisis will bring to the fore a decade’s worth of accounting fraud (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a48174cecd&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da48174cecd%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNETDoGOyp7Z1nqHPT813EAnc7BFhg\">https://www.economist.com/<wbr />business/2020/04/18/the-<wbr />economic-crisis-will-expose-a-<wbr />decades-worth-of-corporate-<wbr />fraud</a>). We also highlighted one of our older blogs where we had laid out the link between liquidity crunches and accounting fraud – see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=67e5eeb51b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D67e5eeb51b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOtNelXnaEixHj2-E4hX332RvlOw\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />accounting-fraud-and-<wbr />liquidity-crunches-are-<wbr />bedfellows/</a>.\r\nGiven that accounting fraud is the single biggest risk facing investors in the Indian market (by our estimate, 80% of listed Indian companies fiddle their figures), we were intrigued by the coverage given by the Indian Express to alleged accounting irregularities at the now bankrupt travel firm Cox and Kings. As the Indian Express says, <em>“Cox and Kings was sent to bankruptcy court in October 2019, after it defaulted on payments. While the promoter group owns 12.20 per cent shares in the company, the public owns the remaining 87.80 per cent. The travel and tour company owes Rs 5,500 crore to banks and financial institutions.”</em>\r\nSo how did the Indian Express build such a detailed picture of the alleged fraud that was perpetrated? <em>“Records of the audit, done in February 2020 by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) at the behest of lender Yes Bank, and official records accessed by The Indian Express detail how the company allegedly fudged records and window-dressed its figures.”</em>\r\nThe Cox &amp; Kings episode has expanded our knowledge of accounting shenanigans in three different ways:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you trust the CFO?</strong> We tend to focus overly on the Promoter and his role in perpetrating accounting fraud. That could be a mistake. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“The investigation has found that Cox and Kings gave Rs 1,100 crore to Alok Industries, a stressed firm that went bankrupt in 2017, even as the travel firm did not have any business relationship with the company. Significantly, when the loan was given, the Chief Financial Officer of Alok Industries was Sunil Khandelwal, who is also brother of Cox &amp; Kings CFO Anil Khandelwal.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you believe the ‘related party’ disclosures in the annual report?</strong> We tend to take at face value the related party disclosures given in an annual report. That too could be a mistake. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“Apart from this, in financial year 2019 alone, Cox &amp; Kings loaned Rs 589 crore to at least 11 related parties “without executing loan agreements”. “Prima facie it appears that these loans have been granted to related parties without obtaining the requisite approvals/documentation, which raises a suspicion that these transactions have been done with the intent of siphoning off funds,” said the investigation report.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Do you understand how the circular flow of funds can be used to create a false &amp; misleading picture of a listed company’s credit worthiness and its access to debt finance?</strong> We know about circular trading in the stockmarket. Its cousin brother in the debt market is a circular flow of loans which deludes investors into having greater faith in the balance sheet than they should. Quoting the Indian Express: <em>“…a firm promoted by Cox and Kings, <u>Ezeego One Travel and Tours Ltd, allegedly “siphoned” Rs 150 crore it borrowed from Yes Bank and invested it in Redkite Capital.</u> This was done in two tranches between January 2018 and March 2019 through non-convertible debentures (NCDs).</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Redkite Capital, set up in 2010, is owned by four firms controlled by Anil Khandelwal, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Cox and Kings; his father, Om Prakash Khandelwal; Naresh Jain, the internal auditor of Cox and Kings; and the Jain and Khandelwal family.</em>\r\n<em><u>Redkite, records show, used the Rs 150 crore raised from Ezeego to acquire a controlling stake of 32.81 per cent in a government-promoted financial institution, Tourism Finance Corporation of India (TFCI)</u></em><em>, between February and March 2019 after the approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)….Probe records show that Ezeego did not disclose its first investment of Rs 80 crore in Redkite Capital in January 2018, in its audited balance sheets of that financial year.</em>\r\n<em>Significantly, the second tranche of investment of Rs 70 crore was done by Ezeego on March 30, 2019, after it had defaulted on its loan payment obligation to Yes Bank. The bank that has an exposure of Rs 945 crore to Ezeego reported the company account as fraud to the RBI in February 2020.</em>\r\n<em>TFCI, a listed non-banking financial company (NBFC), was set up in 1988 by IFCI Ltd as an All India Financial Institution for funding tourism projects…Apart from Redkite Capital, the other shareholders of TFCI include IFCI (0.67%), LIC (3.73%), Oriental Insurance Co Ltd (1.07%), Tamaka Capital (Mauritius) Ltd (3%) and Ko</em>ppara Sajeeve Thomas (5%). General public holds around 30.74 per cent of TFCI.\r\n<em><u>Significantly, TFCI is also one of the lenders of Cox and Kings</u>.The bankrupt travel firm owes about Rs 100 crore to TFCI, according to data obtained from the Registrar of Companies (RoC).\r\nThis loan was given to Cox and Kings before Redkite Capital became the majority shareholder of TFCI. Records show that Redkite, immediately after acquiring the majority stake in TFCI, pledged shares of TFCI (as collateral) to raise Rs 85 crore from lenders.”</em>\r\nThe underlining above is ours as we seek to understand what looks like a triangular flow of funds i.e. Ezeego (a firm promoted by Cox &amp; Kings) to Redkite to TFCI to Cox and Kings. Understanding these triangular flows should become a staple of financial analysis in India.\r\nAll of that being said, the Cox &amp; Kings story does have many familiar elements which are standard in accounting blowups in India eg. revenues from customers who seem to have vanished into thin air and cash in bank accounts which cannot be found. (Remember Satyam every time you feel good about seeing a company post solid revenue growth and show healthy cash in bank.)\r\nWhat accounting blow-ups in India are highlighting is that however clever we might be with our forensic toolkit, ultimately if a determined promoter and a skilful CFO join hands, they can make a fool out of all of us. That sobering thought should keep us from feeling smug about our investment returns.</div>', 'Cox and Kings Dossier – Parts 1 & 2: Audit uncovers siphoning of crores, fudging of records and bogus sales', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3335-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:06:58', '2020-05-12 04:06:58', '', 3335, 'https://marcellus.in/3335-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3337, 1, '2020-05-11 04:19:01', '2020-05-11 04:19:01', '<div>For those who aspire to excellence, Naseeruddin Shah has long set the benchmark in Indian cinema. Over the past decade however many of us were left spellbound by the acting of a modern master, Irrfan Khan. From his breakthrough movie “The Warrior” (2001) to seeing his spine chilling portrayal of Maqbool in Vishal Bhardwaj’s movie by the same name (2004) to seeing him light up the screen with his portrayal of a Delhi businessman in “Hindi Medium” (2017), many of us idolised this uniquely Indian actor who could command a hefty pay cheque in Bollywood as well as Hollywood. In this piece the great Naseeruddin Shah pays tribute to the now departed hero.\r\nThree things from Mr Shah’s eulogy to Irrfan stand out:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>An understanding that we are all playing an infinite game</strong>: <em>“When I meet actors who move to Mumbai and say, ‘I’m going to try for two years and if it does not work out, I’ll go home”, I tell them they should go back and not waste these two years. In two years, nothing is going to happen. Irrfan didn’t give himself any such deadline. He knew that this was his life’s vocation. He decided to do whatever it took to stay afloat. He barely stayed afloat for many years until films like The Warrior (2001) came along. That itself should be an inspiration for young actors who are not getting immediate recognition.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Death, I have always believed, is the most unimportant part of life. It doesn’t matter how and when you die. What matters is what you have done with your life. Irrfan did a great deal with his life.”</em>\r\n</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"2\"><strong>Obsess about excellence without caring for adulation: </strong><em>“Everyone knows about Irrfan’s work and it will survive forever. Without a doubt, he’ll be remembered as one the finest actors of this country. When you watched him act, you felt as if you could read his mind. He never made an effort to reach you. This is a strange paradox about Irrfan as an actor. An actor always makes efforts to reach out to his audience. Irrfan knew the audience would reach out to him. People who have known him only through his work have felt a personal connect with him. That’s the most precious thing an actor can do for an audience. A lot of actors can impress, awe or amuse the audience. Irrfan had the ability to enter into your veins and make you feel he is yours. That’s why this outpouring of grief over a person so many people didn’t know but who they realised is a gem. It shows extreme mastery of his craft and a confidence in his abilities. That’s why he achieved what he did. The intelligence that shone through in his acting is a rare quality. It gave a peculiar charisma to his performances. He reminded me of those Buddhist monks who draw intricate patterns out of coloured powder over days that requires absolute concentration. After they have made it, they just wipe it away. It does not matter if someone has seen it. What’s of consequence is that they gave their best to create that. Watching Irrfan act reminded me of these people. He never spoke of his own performances or boasted about his work. He just quietly did it.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li value=\"3\"><strong>Appreciate excellence, celebrate it and let it inspire you: </strong><em>“I got to know him better during Vishal Bhardwaj’s Maqbool (2003). The film went through various permutations of casting. Then some light of inspiration struck Vishal. He decided on Irrfan in the titular role. For Irrfan, Maqbool was the beginning of his recognition in India. He was in his early 30s then, acting alongside Om Puri, Pankaj Kapur and me, but he held his own. When I used to watch him act, I used to think of Mozart and (Antonio) Salieri. Salieri used to tell God “Why am I the patron saint of mediocrity? Is this fellow’s random scribbling superior to my hours and hours of labour in composing music?” I must say that when I watched Irrfan, that’s how I used to feel. I wished that when I was his age, I had been that good. I really admired him in an unqualified manner. I don’t think there is another actor I admired as much as I admired Irrfan. But that was not just because of his acting. He was also a gentle, affectionate and generous man. I treasure the moments I shared with him. I consider myself fortunate to be among those who witnessed Irrfan’s ascent.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>', 'Naseeruddin Shah: \'Irrfan\'s legacy is like a constellation of stars for everyactor to take inspiration from\'', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'naseeruddin-shah-irrfans-legacy-is-like-a-constellation-of-stars-for-everyactor-to-take-inspiration-from', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3337', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3338, 1, '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '<div>For those who aspire to excellence, Naseeruddin Shah has long set the benchmark in Indian cinema. Over the past decade however many of us were left spellbound by the acting of a modern master, Irrfan Khan. From his breakthrough movie “The Warrior” (2001) to seeing his spine chilling portrayal of Maqbool in Vishal Bhardwaj’s movie by the same name (2004) to seeing him light up the screen with his portrayal of a Delhi businessman in “Hindi Medium” (2017), many of us idolised this uniquely Indian actor who could command a hefty pay cheque in Bollywood as well as Hollywood. In this piece the great Naseeruddin Shah pays tribute to the now departed hero.\r\nThree things from Mr Shah’s eulogy to Irrfan stand out:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>An understanding that we are all playing an infinite game</strong>: <em>“When I meet actors who move to Mumbai and say, ‘I’m going to try for two years and if it does not work out, I’ll go home”, I tell them they should go back and not waste these two years. In two years, nothing is going to happen. Irrfan didn’t give himself any such deadline. He knew that this was his life’s vocation. He decided to do whatever it took to stay afloat. He barely stayed afloat for many years until films like The Warrior (2001) came along. That itself should be an inspiration for young actors who are not getting immediate recognition.</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div><em>Death, I have always believed, is the most unimportant part of life. It doesn’t matter how and when you die. What matters is what you have done with your life. Irrfan did a great deal with his life.”</em>\r\n</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li value=\"2\"><strong>Obsess about excellence without caring for adulation: </strong><em>“Everyone knows about Irrfan’s work and it will survive forever. Without a doubt, he’ll be remembered as one the finest actors of this country. When you watched him act, you felt as if you could read his mind. He never made an effort to reach you. This is a strange paradox about Irrfan as an actor. An actor always makes efforts to reach out to his audience. Irrfan knew the audience would reach out to him. People who have known him only through his work have felt a personal connect with him. That’s the most precious thing an actor can do for an audience. A lot of actors can impress, awe or amuse the audience. Irrfan had the ability to enter into your veins and make you feel he is yours. That’s why this outpouring of grief over a person so many people didn’t know but who they realised is a gem. It shows extreme mastery of his craft and a confidence in his abilities. That’s why he achieved what he did. The intelligence that shone through in his acting is a rare quality. It gave a peculiar charisma to his performances. He reminded me of those Buddhist monks who draw intricate patterns out of coloured powder over days that requires absolute concentration. After they have made it, they just wipe it away. It does not matter if someone has seen it. What’s of consequence is that they gave their best to create that. Watching Irrfan act reminded me of these people. He never spoke of his own performances or boasted about his work. He just quietly did it.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li value=\"3\"><strong>Appreciate excellence, celebrate it and let it inspire you: </strong><em>“I got to know him better during Vishal Bhardwaj’s Maqbool (2003). The film went through various permutations of casting. Then some light of inspiration struck Vishal. He decided on Irrfan in the titular role. For Irrfan, Maqbool was the beginning of his recognition in India. He was in his early 30s then, acting alongside Om Puri, Pankaj Kapur and me, but he held his own. When I used to watch him act, I used to think of Mozart and (Antonio) Salieri. Salieri used to tell God “Why am I the patron saint of mediocrity? Is this fellow’s random scribbling superior to my hours and hours of labour in composing music?” I must say that when I watched Irrfan, that’s how I used to feel. I wished that when I was his age, I had been that good. I really admired him in an unqualified manner. I don’t think there is another actor I admired as much as I admired Irrfan. But that was not just because of his acting. He was also a gentle, affectionate and generous man. I treasure the moments I shared with him. I consider myself fortunate to be among those who witnessed Irrfan’s ascent.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>', 'Naseeruddin Shah: \'Irrfan\'s legacy is like a constellation of stars for everyactor to take inspiration from\'', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3337-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '2020-05-12 04:20:41', '', 3337, 'https://marcellus.in/3337-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3339, 1, '2020-05-11 04:20:48', '2020-05-11 04:20:48', 'Here’s one piece which highlights the merits of active investing and yet shows why it is so hard to generate alpha. Baillie Gifford, a Scottish investment management firm pursues strong collaborative ties with the academia to stay ahead of the curve. In one such piece, James Anderson, a partner at BG, writes about research from Prof Hendrik  Bessembinder of Arizona State University who highlights that most stocks fail to beat treasury returns implying equity returns tend to be concentrated across a handful of stocks. So, the lure of active investing is the disproportionate gains from the winners, if you are lucky to find them that is, given the probability is akin to that of finding a needle in a haystack.\r\n<em>“In early 2017 Professor Bessembinder released his initial drafts of a paper entitled Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? The title itself is heretical. It is a central assumption of Modern Portfolio Theory as taught to all students that because equities are more risky they must have higher rewards. But Bessembinder showed that “slightly more than four out of every seven common stocks have lifetime buy-and-hold returns, inclusive of reinvested dividends, of less than those on one-month Treasuries.</em>\r\n<em>….“When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, the entire gain in the US stock market since 1926 is attributable to the best-performing 4 per cent of listed companies.”  </em>\r\n<em>…But if this is right then our task is transformed. Our job is solely and simply to find and invest in the stocks that are capable of producing the extraordinary returns of the 4 per cent. Everything else is best put aside. But what characteristics might the companies need to produce these returns? What attributes in turn do we need to hope to identify them? As Bessembinder writes, “The returns to active stock selection can be very large. If the investor is either fortunate or skilled enough…”</em>\r\nWhilst going on to highlight patterns such as great founder-owners who were early in a market which would go onto become large as typical characterstics of such companies, he also helps us with cues about how investors can identify such companies. Most importantly, if only a few companies create all the value, he emphasises on the need to stay invested in such compounders over long periods of time and resist the temptation to ‘book profits’ which creates reinvestment risk:\r\n<em>“…What is more striking and even more exciting is the attributes that the Professor believes that investors in their turn need to possess in order to identify the truly great potential companies. Just like the company founders themselves he thinks the skills we need are centred on dreaming of a grand future, backing great people and coping with twists and turns and ups and downs.</em>\r\n<em>His explication seems to us to run very counter to the perceived market wisdom. It certainly casts doubt over the strong preferences of most investors for predictability and certainty. But still more his perceptions indicate that our job is much more about the imagination of the future that can envisage brave new worlds and the qualitative assessment of leadership skills than about the hard analytic numbers and confident financial mastery that the 227,031 are being examined on for the CFA. So to us the hope – or inspiration – that Professor Bessembinder provides is that as our financial industry marches firmly and unanimously up one hill, we’re running determinedly in the opposite direction. If we are right that is a compelling competitive advantage.</em>\r\n<em>But there’s one last essential to the Professor’s current thinking. Identifying the great investments isn’t enough. As Hendrik Bessembinder makes plain it is the long-term compounding of their share prices that matters. This seems to us to require an additional set of skills such as the creativity to imagine greatness discussed above. The compelling urge amongst ordinary humans for sure, but far more damagingly amongst that odd sub-breed that are fund managers, is to take profits and lock in performance. As the old saying goes: ‘it’s never wrong to take a profit’. But it is often not just wrong but the worst mistake that can be made. Professor Bessembinder is reinforcing such convictions.”</em>', 'Extreme returns', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'extreme-returns', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:22:10', '2020-05-12 04:22:10', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3339', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3340, 1, '2020-05-12 04:22:10', '2020-05-12 04:22:10', 'Here’s one piece which highlights the merits of active investing and yet shows why it is so hard to generate alpha. Baillie Gifford, a Scottish investment management firm pursues strong collaborative ties with the academia to stay ahead of the curve. In one such piece, James Anderson, a partner at BG, writes about research from Prof Hendrik  Bessembinder of Arizona State University who highlights that most stocks fail to beat treasury returns implying equity returns tend to be concentrated across a handful of stocks. So, the lure of active investing is the disproportionate gains from the winners, if you are lucky to find them that is, given the probability is akin to that of finding a needle in a haystack.\r\n<em>“In early 2017 Professor Bessembinder released his initial drafts of a paper entitled Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills? The title itself is heretical. It is a central assumption of Modern Portfolio Theory as taught to all students that because equities are more risky they must have higher rewards. But Bessembinder showed that “slightly more than four out of every seven common stocks have lifetime buy-and-hold returns, inclusive of reinvested dividends, of less than those on one-month Treasuries.</em>\r\n<em>….“When stated in terms of lifetime dollar wealth creation, the entire gain in the US stock market since 1926 is attributable to the best-performing 4 per cent of listed companies.”  </em>\r\n<em>…But if this is right then our task is transformed. Our job is solely and simply to find and invest in the stocks that are capable of producing the extraordinary returns of the 4 per cent. Everything else is best put aside. But what characteristics might the companies need to produce these returns? What attributes in turn do we need to hope to identify them? As Bessembinder writes, “The returns to active stock selection can be very large. If the investor is either fortunate or skilled enough…”</em>\r\nWhilst going on to highlight patterns such as great founder-owners who were early in a market which would go onto become large as typical characterstics of such companies, he also helps us with cues about how investors can identify such companies. Most importantly, if only a few companies create all the value, he emphasises on the need to stay invested in such compounders over long periods of time and resist the temptation to ‘book profits’ which creates reinvestment risk:\r\n<em>“…What is more striking and even more exciting is the attributes that the Professor believes that investors in their turn need to possess in order to identify the truly great potential companies. Just like the company founders themselves he thinks the skills we need are centred on dreaming of a grand future, backing great people and coping with twists and turns and ups and downs.</em>\r\n<em>His explication seems to us to run very counter to the perceived market wisdom. It certainly casts doubt over the strong preferences of most investors for predictability and certainty. But still more his perceptions indicate that our job is much more about the imagination of the future that can envisage brave new worlds and the qualitative assessment of leadership skills than about the hard analytic numbers and confident financial mastery that the 227,031 are being examined on for the CFA. So to us the hope – or inspiration – that Professor Bessembinder provides is that as our financial industry marches firmly and unanimously up one hill, we’re running determinedly in the opposite direction. If we are right that is a compelling competitive advantage.</em>\r\n<em>But there’s one last essential to the Professor’s current thinking. Identifying the great investments isn’t enough. As Hendrik Bessembinder makes plain it is the long-term compounding of their share prices that matters. This seems to us to require an additional set of skills such as the creativity to imagine greatness discussed above. The compelling urge amongst ordinary humans for sure, but far more damagingly amongst that odd sub-breed that are fund managers, is to take profits and lock in performance. As the old saying goes: ‘it’s never wrong to take a profit’. But it is often not just wrong but the worst mistake that can be made. Professor Bessembinder is reinforcing such convictions.”</em>', 'Extreme returns', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3339-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:22:10', '2020-05-12 04:22:10', '', 3339, 'https://marcellus.in/3339-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3341, 1, '2020-05-11 04:22:23', '2020-05-11 04:22:23', 'Bruce Greenwald is a professor at Columbia University\'s Graduate School of Business and the author of the books <em>Value Investing: from Graham to Buffett and Beyond</em> and <em>Competition Demystified: A Radically Simplified Approach to Business Strategy</em>. The blog cites a recent podcast with him where he highlights why value investing as it has been traditionally understood (buying low P/E, P/B stocks) may not work in today’s context. He cites the evolved nature of today’s leading businesses which are not truly represented by the accounting standards that were suitable for traditional businesses.\r\n<em>“So I think, as you know, value has not done well, and sort of primitive value especially. Which is just low P/E, low market to book, has not done well for almost 10 years now. I think that the obvious cause is that we are shifting from a real asset heavy manufacturing and industrial economy to a software, service driven economy where really most of the capital is intangible. and you see that on the balance sheet.</em>\r\n<em>So people who are going to try and look at traditional tangible book value are going to miss most of where the value is across firms and the ones who sort of look cheap on tangible book value are going to have very bad intangibles, and are not going to do particularly well.</em>\r\n<em>So I think it’s much harder to assess asset values today because there is so much in intangibles than it was historically. And I think that’s affected the value community. If you dumb it down.</em>\r\n<em>I think what goes along with that is a lot of the accumulation of intangibles, acquiring a book of business, developing a product portfolio, gets expensed. It doesn’t appear as investment. It gets expensed and therefore not included in profits. So that again, if you want to do a proper profit calculation you’ve got to sort of add back that investment. And again that’s a complicated process.</em>\r\n<em>So I think the traditional metric that in an industrial economy, manufacturing economy, people depended on as value investors are just not there anymore. That means they’re going to have to construct income statements and balance sheets for themselves.”</em>', 'The Landscape Has Changed For Traditional Value Investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-landscape-has-changed-for-traditional-value-investing', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:23:55', '2020-05-12 04:23:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3341', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3342, 1, '2020-05-12 04:23:55', '2020-05-12 04:23:55', 'Bruce Greenwald is a professor at Columbia University\'s Graduate School of Business and the author of the books <em>Value Investing: from Graham to Buffett and Beyond</em> and <em>Competition Demystified: A Radically Simplified Approach to Business Strategy</em>. The blog cites a recent podcast with him where he highlights why value investing as it has been traditionally understood (buying low P/E, P/B stocks) may not work in today’s context. He cites the evolved nature of today’s leading businesses which are not truly represented by the accounting standards that were suitable for traditional businesses.\r\n<em>“So I think, as you know, value has not done well, and sort of primitive value especially. Which is just low P/E, low market to book, has not done well for almost 10 years now. I think that the obvious cause is that we are shifting from a real asset heavy manufacturing and industrial economy to a software, service driven economy where really most of the capital is intangible. and you see that on the balance sheet.</em>\r\n<em>So people who are going to try and look at traditional tangible book value are going to miss most of where the value is across firms and the ones who sort of look cheap on tangible book value are going to have very bad intangibles, and are not going to do particularly well.</em>\r\n<em>So I think it’s much harder to assess asset values today because there is so much in intangibles than it was historically. And I think that’s affected the value community. If you dumb it down.</em>\r\n<em>I think what goes along with that is a lot of the accumulation of intangibles, acquiring a book of business, developing a product portfolio, gets expensed. It doesn’t appear as investment. It gets expensed and therefore not included in profits. So that again, if you want to do a proper profit calculation you’ve got to sort of add back that investment. And again that’s a complicated process.</em>\r\n<em>So I think the traditional metric that in an industrial economy, manufacturing economy, people depended on as value investors are just not there anymore. That means they’re going to have to construct income statements and balance sheets for themselves.”</em>', 'The Landscape Has Changed For Traditional Value Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3341-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:23:55', '2020-05-12 04:23:55', '', 3341, 'https://marcellus.in/3341-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3343, 1, '2020-05-11 04:24:01', '2020-05-11 04:24:01', 'Just earlier this week, the FT’s Alphaville wrote about <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb90364089&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfb90364089%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHPhIY9Y8W0Fla9MZJ7loAYNCrUuw\">‘Introducing, the Disney Park Indicator’</a> as <em>‘the ultimate economic indicator of whether the world has returned to its 2019 “normality”’ – </em>citing that <em>‘a visit to Disney, and in particular Florida’s Disney World, requires that a consumer does everything they’re not doing right now’. </em>Going to Disney is an expensive affair (avg visitor spends $1500), making it truly a discretionary expense, something that people are unlikely to jump at when their futre incomes are uncertain. Furthermore, it involves travel for most people and being amongst crowds for extended periods of time, both likely to raise the risk of infection. Yet, NPR reports that Shanghai Disneyland is sold out for its first day of reopening, this coming Monday suggesting that Chinese consumers are happy to put their fears aside and get on with their lives. Yes, Shanghai hasnt reported a single case in days and the park will enforce physical distancing and operate at lower capacity. But still, this gives some sense of how consumers may behave when the lockdown is lifted elsewhere across the world and help assess how soon demand is likely to recover.\r\n<em>“It took only minutes for Shanghai Disneyland to run out of tickets to Monday\'s reopening as people jumped at a chance to visit the amusement park for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak forced it to close in late January.</em>\r\n<em>… Ticket prices for the theme park start at 399 yuan (around $56) for a standard weekday fare; prices rise to 499 yuan ($70) for weekend visits. After the Monday tickets were snapped up, other days in the reopening week were also sold out.</em>\r\n<em>The move comes as Shanghai prepares to lower its emergency alert level to its third-highest setting; the Shanghai Daily reports that the city said it has not had a new confirmed local COVID-19 case since early March.</em>\r\n<em>Large Disney parks and hotels in the U.S. and elsewhere remain closed. But as Florida relaxes some of its shutdown orders, the Walt Disney World Resort said stores and restaurants in its Disney Springs waterfront development in Orlando will begin a \"phased reopening\" on May 20.”</em>', 'Shanghai Disneyland Sells Out Of Tickets For Post-Shutdown Reopening', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'shanghai-disneyland-sells-out-of-tickets-for-post-shutdown-reopening', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:26:40', '2020-05-12 04:26:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3343', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3344, 1, '2020-05-12 04:26:40', '2020-05-12 04:26:40', 'Just earlier this week, the FT’s Alphaville wrote about <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=fb90364089&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dfb90364089%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589340418259000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHPhIY9Y8W0Fla9MZJ7loAYNCrUuw\">‘Introducing, the Disney Park Indicator’</a> as <em>‘the ultimate economic indicator of whether the world has returned to its 2019 “normality”’ – </em>citing that <em>‘a visit to Disney, and in particular Florida’s Disney World, requires that a consumer does everything they’re not doing right now’. </em>Going to Disney is an expensive affair (avg visitor spends $1500), making it truly a discretionary expense, something that people are unlikely to jump at when their futre incomes are uncertain. Furthermore, it involves travel for most people and being amongst crowds for extended periods of time, both likely to raise the risk of infection. Yet, NPR reports that Shanghai Disneyland is sold out for its first day of reopening, this coming Monday suggesting that Chinese consumers are happy to put their fears aside and get on with their lives. Yes, Shanghai hasnt reported a single case in days and the park will enforce physical distancing and operate at lower capacity. But still, this gives some sense of how consumers may behave when the lockdown is lifted elsewhere across the world and help assess how soon demand is likely to recover.\r\n<em>“It took only minutes for Shanghai Disneyland to run out of tickets to Monday\'s reopening as people jumped at a chance to visit the amusement park for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak forced it to close in late January.</em>\r\n<em>… Ticket prices for the theme park start at 399 yuan (around $56) for a standard weekday fare; prices rise to 499 yuan ($70) for weekend visits. After the Monday tickets were snapped up, other days in the reopening week were also sold out.</em>\r\n<em>The move comes as Shanghai prepares to lower its emergency alert level to its third-highest setting; the Shanghai Daily reports that the city said it has not had a new confirmed local COVID-19 case since early March.</em>\r\n<em>Large Disney parks and hotels in the U.S. and elsewhere remain closed. But as Florida relaxes some of its shutdown orders, the Walt Disney World Resort said stores and restaurants in its Disney Springs waterfront development in Orlando will begin a \"phased reopening\" on May 20.”</em>', 'Shanghai Disneyland Sells Out Of Tickets For Post-Shutdown Reopening', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3343-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-12 04:26:40', '2020-05-12 04:26:40', '', 3343, 'https://marcellus.in/3343-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3354, 1, '2020-06-24 08:02:25', '2020-06-24 08:02:25', '<strong>The 20 most profitable firms in India now generate 70% of the country’s profits, up from 14% thirty years ago. The rise of India’s networked economy (highways, cheap flights, broadband, GST) has allowed large, efficient firms to use superior technology &amp; better access to capital to squash smaller competitors. In line with what is being seen in the US, the growing dominance of a handful of very large companies in India is changing the template of capitalism in India. This has very significant implications for how portfolios are constructed and how valuation techniques are used in India.</strong>\n\n<em>\"This survival of the fittest, which I have here sought to express in mechanical terms, is that which Mr. Darwin has called \'natural selection\', or the preservation of favoured races in the struggle for life.\" </em>– <strong>Herbert Spencer</strong> in ‘Principles of Biology’ (1864) after reading Charles Darwin’s book ‘On the Origin of Species’ (1859)\n\n<em>“Since the late 1990s, over 75% of US industries have experienced an increase in concentration levels. We find that firms in industries with the largest increases in product market concentration show higher profit margins and more profitable mergers and acquisitions deals. At the same time, we find no evidence for a significant increase in operational efficiency. Taken together, our results suggest that market power is becoming an important source of value…We also show that the higher profit margins associated with an increase in concentration are reflected in higher returns to shareholders. Overall, our results suggest that the US product markets have undergone a shift that has potentially weakened competition across the majority of industries.” </em>– <strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong> in ‘Are US Industries Becoming More Concentrated?’, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=bec738032b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dbec738032b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEkLuyA3Ls1xfCfIsa6fHPDS-oe_g\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743.\n\n<em>“The evidence suggests that there has been a moderate increase in those broad measures of concentration…at least in the US and Japan, though not in European countries….Looking at the evidence on other indicators of competitive intensity, we can see that mark-ups and profits in the US have significantly increased. Data on mark-ups in Europe is unfortunately more limited; however, the picture that is available suggests a more mixed picture on mark-ups across different European countries, though there is a strong trend towards increased profits. Worryingly the rate of churn in the US appears to have fallen, while again in Europe the picture is mixed….there are a broad range of indicators suggesting that, on average, market power is increasing.”</em> – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=aab9013c94&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Daab9013c94%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGwk6huD1pviOvYZdcchSHMgxY6AQ\">‘Market Concentration Issues Paper’</a>, <strong>OECD</strong>, 20<sup>th</sup> April 2018.\n\n<strong>Time to rebuild our mental models of how India functions</strong>\n\nWhilst several Western academics have published credible analysis of how their economies have become less equal, we haven’t come across analysis of comparable quality in India. In our January 23<sup>rd</sup> 2020, blog - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=88f84c1ce0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D88f84c1ce0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQ7IyC4vgcLJJnS2KMlOl9E0qQrw\">How the Nifty will change in the coming decade?</a> we had highlighted how in several sectors in India, one or two companies account for 80% or more of the profits generated:\n\n<em>“</em><em>India is already an economy with extraordinary levels of profit share concentration in many key sectors. For example, in paints (Asian Paints, Berger Paints), premium cooking oil (Marico, Adani), biscuits (Britannia, Parle), hair oil (Marico, Bajaj Corp), infant milk powder (Nestle), cigarettes (ITC), adhesives (Pidilite), waterproofing (Pidilite again), trucks (Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland), small cars (Maruti, Hyundai) we already have one or two companies accounting for 80% of the profits generated in the sector. Now this trend looks likely to spread to more fragmented sectors where hitherto the unorganised players had greater profit share.”</em>\n\nSince at the core of our investment philosophy lies the notion of investing in firms with dominant positions and high barriers to entry, we decided to examine how the profit share of the top Indian companies has fared in the post-1991 era. What we found took our breath away.\n\n<img class=\"alignright wp-image-3634 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exibit-1-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"853\" height=\"412\" />\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\n&nbsp;\n\nThe vertical axis of the chart represents the 3-year moving average of the ratio of the amount of profit generated by 20 most profitable listed companies in India divided by the total profit generated by the entire Indian corporate sector. As the chart above shows, from around 14% when the country was opened up in the early 1990s, India’s top 20 PAT generators now account for nearly 70% of the profits generated in the world’s sixth largest economy.<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3635 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"852\" height=\"394\" />\n\nSince GDP is simply the aggregate of the returns to land, labour &amp; capital, we then looked at what % of Indian GDP is accounted for by the PAT of the top 20 companies. In the above chart, the left axis is the same as Exhibit 1 and the right axis shows the PAT of the top 20 companies divided by India’s Nominal GDP. Although the share of top 20 companies in Total PAT has increased significantly (LHS) from FY08, their PAT as a % of GDP (RHS) has declined during the same period. In fact, for the entirety of the 21<sup>st</sup> century, the two lines in Exhibit 2 have moved in opposite directions.\n\n<strong>So why are the largest Indian firms becoming utterly dominant leviathans?</strong>\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>A networked economy helps more efficient companies:</strong> In our 1<sup>st</sup> March 2019 blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8fb9908b4e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8fb9908b4e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjYTGq0e0EkjbpS18GQbYUF5YGLA\">Exit the Kirana Store, Enter the Supermarket</a> we had highlighted how over the past ten years, the length of roads in India has increased from 3.3 million km to 5.9 million km (CAGR of 6%). The number of mobile phone subscribers has increased over the same period from 392 million to 1161 million (CAGR of 12%). The number of broadband users has increased from 6 million to 563 million (CAGR of 57%). A decade ago, around 44 million Indians were taking flights each year. Now 3x as many Indians are flying each year (CAGR of 13%). 15 years ago, only 1 in 3 Indian families had a bank account; now nearly all Indian families have a bank account.</li>\n</ol>\nAs a result of this networking of the Indian economy, efficient companies with strong distribution systems have pulled away from regional &amp; local players. For example, as the economy gets integrated, lending, which was once dominated by regional players is now seeing the emergence of a few national leviathans like HDFC Bank and HDFC with both lenders entering the list of top 20 PAT generators over the last 10 years.\n<ol>\n 	<li value=\"2\"><strong>Regulatory burden is higher for smaller companies</strong>: Economists have long believed that onerous regulatory regimes hurt smaller companies more than larger ones. As highlighted in this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d9a122faf0&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd9a122faf0%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGYc46EsK1z2FRL96HdCj9xbMp19g\">article</a> a newly incorporated Indian company has to obtain registrations under at least seven regulators and file a minimum of 18 to a maximum of 69 returns a year. Clearly, smaller players, with limited resources, must spend relatively more resources than the larger ones. Similarly, the cost of adapting to GST was negligible for a leviathan like Asian Paints but far more significant for a smaller paint company with a fraction of Asian Paints’ market share.</li>\n</ol>\nInterestingly, in this regard, social media has done a disservice to smaller companies – with regulators now worried that a small company under their watch will malfunction and thus cause a stink on social media, they have surrounded the small company with the same thicket of regulations which they used to foist exclusively on larger companies. In fact, the ability to handicap smaller competitors by influencing regulation has increasingly become the hallmark of many of India’s leviathans.\n\n<em>“Technological changes provide another plausible explanation for the recent increase in industry concentration levels. Developments in technology have created advantages for economies of scale, and have arguably changed the industry landscape….Public adoption of the Internet in the late 1990s, as well as the concomitant popularization of personal computers, has had an extensive impact on productivity and growth. If large firms are better able to develop and implement technology, then recent technological advances may create barriers of entry to new firms. In support of this argument, we calculate the evolution of patent-based industry concentration by looking at the share of total patent activity by the largest four firms in the industry using the patent database by Kogan et al…. These results suggest that complex technology also facilitates synergy potentials and increases barriers to entry.” - </em><strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9e9e7d4994&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9e9e7d4994%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9te9Hz7e4s7iWYup29hU9PjIhbw\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743\n<ol>\n 	<li value=\"3\"><strong>Technology as a barrier to entry</strong>: As per a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=e44f656787&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3De44f656787%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEaeepfX5nOb6FZBF3DHT_9Q58pVQ\">March 2019</a> survey conducted by McKinsey, smaller Indian companies have adopted the system of accepting digital payments more than the larger companies. However, they just do not have the resources for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things. This is where the larger companies score over the smaller companies. We find in our portfolios, that in businesses where pan-India distribution/presence is required, market leaders like Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Astral Poly, Pidilite, Page Industries, etc. have made skilful use of technology to build barriers to entry (see Chapters 2, 5, 7 &amp; 8 of ‘The Unusual Billionaires’ by Saurabh Mukherjea). For example, it is highly unlikely that any paint company will be able to build an Enterprise Resource Planning system remotely comparable to what Asian Paints has. Hence Asian Paints’ working capital cycle at 8 days will remain a massive source of superior cashflows whilst its competitors continue to live with working capital cycles in excess of 100 days.</li>\n</ol>\nFurther as Sameer Arora of Syntel highlights, older Indian firms are reluctant to update their old IT systems because of the heavy capex involved and the need to provide training to the workforce (with many of the unionised workers themselves having no interest in being trained). India’s PSUs are an obvious example of this resistance to tech change (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d204dca6f5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd204dca6f5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638019000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjSlTjIkoUZjiW1AdsvZukxcdyNw\">Link</a>).\n<ol>\n 	<li value=\"4\"><strong>Lower cost of capital for the giants</strong>: India’s top 20 PAT generators fall into two broad buckets: (a) private sector companies which have superior free cash flow generation thanks to their ROE being significantly above their cost of equity eg. HDFC Bank, ITC, HDFC, TCS, etc; and (b) giant PSUs which get access to capital at a low cost because of their implicit sovereign guarantee. Smaller companies have access to neither source of capital. This in turn all but eliminates their chances of being able to compete with these leviathans. For example, ITC has over Rs 28K crore of cash on its balance sheet. In addition, ITC generates Rs 10K of free cashflow in a typical year. For any FMCG firm which isn’t a leviathan, competing with ITC’s cash machine is a difficult proposition.</li>\n</ol>\n<strong><u>Investment Implications</u></strong>\n<em>“…we find that firms in more concentrated industries experience significant abnormal stock returns, which indicates that a considerable portion of the gains accrues to shareholders. Prima facie, the positive and significant alphas connote a simple and profitable trading strategy, which is interesting in its own right. This finding also raises the question, why does the market not “get it” in the first place.”</em> - <strong>Gustavo Grullon, Yelena Larkin &amp; Roni Michaely</strong>, <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3fa7bd2a53&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3fa7bd2a53%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGNAunZEvLxqDcm3oZXHi1D1nDbIQ\">Review of Finance</a>, Volume 23, Issue 4, July 2019, Pages 697–743.\n\n<strong>Implication #1: Consistent Compounding by investing in clean, well-managed leviathans</strong>\nAs we have highlighted repeatedly in <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span>’ newsletters/blogs and in our books, dominant Indian companies’ very high ROCEs give them access to low cost capital which when reinvested sensibly in technology, distribution networks, new plants &amp; more products, allows compounding machines like HDFC Bank and TCS to give their shareholders superior returns with risk comparable to a Government of India bond. See our 14<sup>th</sup> June 2019 blog for a fuller exposition of this point: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=17dc622309&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D17dc622309%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHjolJzQIXbN8ij1RJRIxK5xhtzSA\">Crushing risk is more rewarding than chasing returns</a>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3636 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"853\" height=\"374\" />\n\n<strong>Implication #2: Invest in the next wave of ‘top 20 PAT generators’</strong>\nWhilst the dominance of the leviathans continues to grow, the list of the top 20 PAT generators is far from static. In the above chart, the vertical axis represent the churn rate in the top 20 companies over a 10-year period. Eg. In the FY19 list of 20 most profitable Indian companies, there were only 9 companies which were present in the list of FY09. Hence the churn rate is 55% (11 companies/20 companies). In fact, in our January 4<sup>th</sup> 2019 blog – <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=053dfcbd0f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D053dfcbd0f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGJXNKUEATSk95aZxg3XyhrpE9Pg\">How competitive advantage drives churn in the stockmarket</a> we had mentioned that the churn rate for BSE500 is 55-60% over a 10 year period and then explained why it is so by breaking the industry life cycle into four stages.\n\nThe churn rate among the top 20 PAT generators is also high at 55-60% implying that there is still a lot to play since the commanding heights of the Indian economy have not yet been locked down firmly. In fact, if you had invested in an equally weighted portfolio in FY09 of the 11 companies which have been added to the top 20 list of FY19, your total shareholder return CAGR would be 26% CAGR (FY09-FY19).\n\nSo which companies will be in the top 20 PAT generators list in FY29? Peering into the (murky) crystal ball, we see the following:\n<ul>\n 	<li>The giant PSUs will continue exiting from the list because of sub-par capital allocation (forced upon it by its largest shareholder) and because of the relentless need of the sovereign to exercise its patronage.</li>\n 	<li>Companies which are good capital allocators, whose promoters don’t fiddle with the figures and which have high barriers to entry are likely to enter the top 20 list. Here is a list of potential entrants (with their FY19 PAT ranking in brackets): Kotak Bank (21<sup>st</sup>), Axis Bank (29<sup>th</sup>), Bajaj Auto (30<sup>th</sup>), Bajaj Finance (35<sup>th</sup>), Eicher Motors (57<sup>th</sup>), Asian Paints (59<sup>th</sup>).</li>\n 	<li>Like other developed countries whose economies have formalised, the profit share of the top 20 PAT generators in India will also continue to increase from the current 70% to 80-90% due to the reasons mentioned above. By the time we finish our careers, we would be surprised if more than 20 Indian firms don’t take home 80% of India’s profits. If you care about understanding why this will happen, it is worth reading Thomas Piketty’s magisterial book ‘Capital In the 21<sup>st</sup> Century’ (2013). In Chapter 10 of this masterpiece he says, <em>“In all known societies, at all times, the least wealthy half of the population own virtually nothing….the top decile of the wealth hierarchy own a clear majority of what is to own (generally 60% of total wealth and sometimes as much as 90%); and the remainder of the population…own from 5-35% of all wealth.”</em></li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Implication #3: Investors will need to use DCF models properly</strong>\nWhilst most investors learn DCF valuation early on their careers, the prevailing tendency is to use a cookie-cutter approach to DCF valuation (of the sort taught in academic courses which were designed in the pre-leviathan era). As explained in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3d9e9c431c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3d9e9c431c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5DvVqpa5xDj08VwrnLcXZqcXn4A\">4<sup>th</sup> January newsletter</a>: <em>“An investor looking to buy and hold stocks over a long time period, needs to be able to differentiate between businesses which can deliver longevity of consistently healthy free cashflows and those that run a high degree of uncertainty in their fundamental prospects. This differentiation is essential, both, in order to avoid premature exits from investments in great quality franchises due to concerns around expensive valuations (e.g. P/E multiples higher than 30x), and to avoid being tempted into investing in inferior quality franchises just because they are trading at apparently cheap valuations (a 10x P/E multiple might actually be super-expensive).”</em>\n\nThe rise of the leviathans will force investors to think more deeply about how they fade ROCE to cost of capital in their DCF models. Given that for many of the firms mentioned so far in this note, ROCE or ROE has not faded to cost of capital over the past 20 years, investors who automatically assume that it will do so over the next 20 years will end up undervaluing the leviathans with potentially adverse consequences for the durability of their portfolios.\n\nDisclosure: <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> and/or its advisory clients own HDFC Bank, Asian Paints, Eicher, Bajaj Finance, TCS, Pidilite, Astral Poly, Page Industries, Berger Paints and ITC.\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea and Harsh Shah are CIO and Analyst respectively at <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> Investment Managers respectively (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a27bc1765e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da27bc1765e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHghbd2BKmDaDbg7sHPIjo4726i1w\"><em>www.<span class=\"il\">marcellus</span>.in</em></a><em>).</em>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3637 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"456\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3638 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"468\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3639 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Exhibit6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"670\" height=\"466\" />\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=86d87150e1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D86d87150e1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593061638020000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGICiRqBob7AlpmojTWwvDD05g4pg\">https://<span class=\"il\">marcellus</span>.in/</a>\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. <span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong><span class=\"il\">Marcellus</span> Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'Behold The Leviathan: The Remaking of Indian Capitalism', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3347-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-24 08:02:25', '2020-06-24 08:02:25', '', 3347, 'https://marcellus.in/3347-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3692, 1, '2020-06-30 05:05:08', '2020-06-30 05:05:08', '<strong>The concept of ‘mean reversion’ is part of both, our everyday life as well as investing. However, inadequate understanding of the ‘mean’ leads to several mistakes in the application of this concept. When it comes to equities, over the long run share prices revert to their fundamentals and hence, clarity of thought around fundamental strengths of a business and its longevity becomes very important in equity investments.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 30<sup>th</sup> June 2020</strong>\r\nWe have coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of nine analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3693\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"635\" height=\"377\" />\r\n\r\nAlthough we have outperformed against Nifty50 over the past six months and longer time periods, our underperformance over the past 1 month and 3 months against Nifty50 is driven by three broad factors. Firstly, our portfolio’s outperformance over a longer term is likely to closely track the differential in earnings growth rates for our portfolio vs Nifty50. Whilst this differential in earnings growth has historically been around 10%-15%, our portfolio’s outperformance on a 12-month basis had increased to ~33% as on 31<sup>st</sup> March 2020. Secondly, a mathematical illusion in short term alpha kicks in when stock prices become highly volatile. An example to extrapolate this illusion – if over 3 months, Stock A falls by 80% and Stock B falls by 50%, the alpha of Stock B over Stock A is +30%. In the subsequent 3 months, if Stock A rises by 100% and Stock B rises by 50%, the alpha of Stock B over Stock A during these three months is -50%. However, for the overall six months period, Stock B <em>outperformed</em> over Stock A by +35% (rather than the optical illusion of adding up +30% and -50% and concluding that Stock B might not have outperformed over Stock A meaningfully during the six month period). When it comes to Marcellus’ CCP, almost half of the 3-month underperformance can be attributed to this optical illusion. And thirdly, Reliance Industries has single handedly contributed 6% to the overall performance of Nifty50 over the past three months. We do not have Reliance Industries in our coverage universe (and hence in our clients’ portfolios).\r\n\r\n<strong>Concept of ‘mean reversion’ – the risk of applying it in investing without understanding it adequately!</strong>\r\nThe basic definition of ‘mean reversion’ is that <em>asset prices and historical returns will revert to the long-run mean or average level of the entire dataset.</em> The concept hopes to identify abnormal activity that will revert to a normal pattern in future. In other words, ‘mean reversion’ suggests that cumulative observations matter more than the most recent one.\r\n\r\nMany of you would have come across the following statements related to ‘mean reversion’ while investing in equities:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Booking profits (vs booking losses)</strong>: “Since I have to sell part of my equity portfolio, let me sell stock A where I am making a profit rather than selling Stock B where I will have to book a loss.”</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Investing at 52 week high!</strong>: “I want to add two stocks to my portfolio – Stock A and Stock B. Stock A is trading close to its 52 week high while Stock B is trading close to its 52 week low. Hence, I should buy Stock B now and I should wait for Stock A to fall before I decide to buy it.”</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Investing at rich P/E multiples: </strong>“Current P/E multiple of Stock A is 30% higher than its average P/E multiple for the last 10 years. Hence, Stock A is expensive.”</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nOften, the concept of mean reversion fails to hold true for these three statements. Why?\r\n\r\nIn our everyday life, we clearly demarcate between areas where ‘mean reversion’ applies and areas where it does not apply. For example, if the city of Mumbai receives rainfall on a day in the month of January, we do not see shoppers on the high-street buying several umbrellas and raincoats. This is because the concept of mean reversion holds true and shoppers do not expect unseasonal rainfall to continue over the next few days. Our cumulative observations over many years matter more than the most recent observation.\r\n\r\nHere is another example. A father has two children – a son and a daughter. The daughter always ranks amongst the top 10% of all students in her school (like a stock trading at its 52-week high). The son always ranks amongst the bottom 10% of all students in his school (like a stock’s 52-week low). The mean (average) performance between the two children is around the fifth decile. While planning for his children’s future, this father does not expect ‘mean reversion’ to result in his daughter’s performance to drop down to the fifth decile in future. Why? Because the father understands the factors that have driven the daughter’s strong performance and hence if these driving factors sustain into the future, then her strong performance will also continue in future. In other words, the father understands that the real ‘mean’ applicable for his daughter is the historical track record of top decile performance, and not the fifth decile which is the average of the two children.\r\n\r\nThe key to understanding how and where mean reversion applies, lies in the <strong>correct understanding of the ‘mean’</strong> itself. For instance, in the exhibit on the left below, incorrect understanding of the underlying fundamentals (i.e. the ‘mean’) leads to incorrect decision making by the investor, an error which can only be avoided by correct understanding of ‘mean’ – as shown in the exhibit on the right below\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone  wp-image-3694\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"713\" height=\"276\" />\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>Let us now go back to the three examples from equities investing we had highlighted above:\r\n\r\n· <strong>Booking profits (vs booking losses)</strong>: In most cases, this decision should be based on fundamental strengths of underlying stocks. It is prudent to exit from stocks with weak fundamentals no matter whether that implies booking profits or losses for an investor.\r\n\r\n· <strong>Investing at 52 week high!</strong>: Companies which consistently compound their earnings at a healthy rate will, more often than not, trade at prices close to their ‘52-week highs’. ‘Mean reversion using 52-week highs and lows’ has no fundamental logic. So, for example, selling Nestle because it is trading at close to its 52-week high does not make any sense (unless you believe infants will stop drinking Nestle’s formula and/or you believe Nestle is about the lose its hammerlock on the infant formula market). Similarly, buying L&amp;T just because it is trading close to its 52-week low makes no sense unless you have researched the company and convinced yourself that L&amp;T has built a strong franchise in, say, civil construction and engineering.\r\n\r\n· <strong>Investing at rich P/E multiples: </strong>As highlighted in our 4<sup>th</sup> Jan 2020 newsletter (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6d11642f0e&amp;e=20412dd269\">click here</a>), P/E multiples higher than 30x can be cheap and P/E multiples lower than 10x can be expensive. An investor looking to buy and hold stocks over a long time period, needs to be able to differentiate between businesses which can deliver longevity of consistently healthy free cashflows and those that run a high degree of uncertainty in their fundamental prospects.\r\n\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\nAlthough the concept of mean reversion sounds obvious, clarity of thought around the definition of ‘mean’ is critical, especially in times when the external environment, reported earnings and share price movements are volatile. In our Consistent Compounders Portfolio, we use the concept of mean reversion to periodically re-balance client portfolios. Our view of the underlying fundamentals of stocks (i.e. the ‘mean’) defines our model portfolio weights and if relative share price movements cause substantial deviations in a client’s stock allocations vs the model portfolio weights, we revert these allocations to the ‘mean’. For instance, over the last two months, we rebalanced most of our existing clients’ portfolios by buying more of stocks like Bajaj Finance whose share price had fallen by almost 60% between Feb 2020 and May 2020. By purchasing more Bajaj Finance over the past couple of months, we retained our model portfolio weight in this stock.</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n&nbsp;\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td><strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n&nbsp;', 'Mean Reversion: Universal Truth or Human Delusion?', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'mean-reversion-universal-truth-or-human-delusion', '', '', '2020-07-03 05:45:35', '2020-07-03 05:45:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3692', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(3654, 1, '2020-06-24 11:33:04', '2020-06-24 11:33:04', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Portfolio construction based on grandmothers’ stories and advice from snake oil salesmen means that the vast majority of affluent Indians have invested most of their wealth in assets which do not and,cannot deliver returns in excess of the rate of inflation. This skewed portfolio allocation means that millions of Indian families are heading into retirement with portfolios which are being swiftly depleted. How did this happen? And what can be done to retrieve the situation?</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3658 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"394\" />\r\n\r\n<strong>An RBI report acts as a warning bell</strong>\r\n\r\nIn August 2017, the RBI published its ‘Indian Household Finance Survey’ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8e9a50ea45&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8e9a50ea45%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGK9NHVRyLZasia3ahWW_AWhYRG6g\">click here</a>). The report highlighted that, amongst other things, <em>“The average Indian household holds 84% of its wealth in real estate and other physical goods, 11% in gold and the residual 5% in financial assets. Retirement accounts play a very limited role in household balance sheets, even at the top of the wealth distribution…Households in advanced economies hold substantially more financial assets than their Indian counterparts, are much more likely to finance home purchasing with a mortgage, and allocate a sizeable fraction of their wealth to retirement savings over the course of their lifetime…The model also cannot explain the observed prominence of physical assets in middle-age, exactly when the potential for the accumulation of financial wealth would be largest…”</em>\r\n\r\nDespite the extraordinary nature of the above findings, back in 2017 no one paid too much attention to this report. However, over the last couple of years, having met over 10,000 HNWs, the enormity of the RBI’s 2017 report has hit us – most Indians – including affluent Indians – have allocated the vast majority of their wealth (over 95% according to the RBI report) – to assets which do not and cannot generate a real rate of return. This includes gold, real estate, low-quality debt mutual funds and low-quality stocks. The stage is therefore set for a whole generation of Indians who began working in the early 1980s, and who will retire in the next ten years, to struggle mightily through retirement. How did this disaster take place? And what can be done to mitigate the problems that millions of seemingly affluent Indian families will face as they head into retirement?\r\n\r\n<strong>The perils of being an Indian HNW</strong>\r\n\r\nThe challenge for affluent Indians who are trying to get their financial planning on track arises from two different sources. Firstly, manufacturers of financial savings products and intermediaries of such products are marketing proactively, and sometimes aggressively, to get a slice of Indian HNWs’ savings pot. Often, these marketing/advertising campaigns have little to do with the facts on the ground. The second challenge facing well-intentioned Indian HNWs is themselves – most affluent investors live in an environment where myths around the pros &amp; cons of various investments proliferate. These myths are often the biggest driver of the investment activities of affluent Indians. We now highlight the four myths that we encounter most often in our discussions with HNWs.\r\n\r\n<strong>Myth 1: Gold will help me protect my wealth</strong>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\nOver the last 30 years, the price of gold (in rupee terms) has compounded at 9% annualised, marginally higher than the rate of consumer price inflation prevalent in India, thus indicating that gold can act as a reliable store of value in India. However, does holding gold increase your wealth in the Indian context? Over the past three decades, gold has given returns below the rate of inflation in the decade between March 1990 to March 2000 where gold prices rose by 3.5% per annum, and gold has given returns marginally higher than inflation in the decade between March 2010 to March 2020 where gold prices rose by 9.8% per annum. (Source for gold prices: RBI’s database on Indian economy)\r\n\r\nWhilst gold does not appear to have the ability to materially augment your wealth – after accounting for the impact inflation – can it improve the risk vs reward trade-off in Indian HNWs’ portfolio i.e. can gold help Indian investors diversify their exposure?\r\n\r\nFor gold to be an asset that is a meaningful diversifier it should have zero or negative correlation to the Sensex. If we look at the annual change in prices every month – for gold and for the Sensex – from March 1990 to March 2020, we find the two assets to have a positive correlation of 12%. Whilst this might sound counterintuitive to those who see gold to be a ‘safe haven asset’, especially when equities are under pressure (e.g. during the Lehman Brothers collapse and during the Covid panic in Feb-Apr 2020), a look at the price movements of the two assets validates the positive correlation – see the chart (Exhibit 1) shown above\r\n\r\n<strong>Myth 2: Real Estate will help me grow my wealth</strong>\r\nOver the last five years, if one were to look at metropolitan cities in India such as Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore, one would see that returns on real estate have been around 3-4% per annum i.e. house prices have at best kept pace with consumer inflation, and in major markets like the National Capital Region not even done that (see NHB website: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6df85803ea&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6df85803ea%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHgJPt_FWrip27zu8sSIxAnRDZGw\"><em>click here</em></a><em>)</em>\r\n\r\n­­­­­­­­However, there is a school of thought In India which says that because residential real estate returns have been weak over the last 5 years, they will be better going forward. This point of view cannot be sustained when one compares Indian house prices with the prices prevalent in markets outside the country. The first problem is affordability. As shown in the chart below (Exhibit 2), Indian residential house prices, expressed as a proportion of GDP, are 6-10x higher than prices prevalent in other Asian economies.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3659 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"409\" />\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\nSecondly, Indian residential rental yields are around 2-3% in most Indian cities. In contrast, the cost of a home loan for prime residential real estate customers is in the vicinity of 7.5%. The disparity between these numbers suggests that Indian residential real estate still has room to correct before It becomes an attractive asset class.\r\n\r\nThirdly, comparing Indian residential rental yields with yields in other countries suggests that the Indian residential property market is significantly overvalued. Other markets where rental yields are comparable to India – say, Singapore and USA – have cost of borrowing in the vicinity of 2-3%. In contrast, as mentioned above, in India, the cost of a home loan even for a prime customer Is around 7.5%. In fact, the cost of a home loan In India Is actually significantly higher than it is in Indonesia (7.5% vs 5%) even though rental yields in Indonesia are much higher than in India (see Global Property Guide website: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=71ed67bc5b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D71ed67bc5b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFn2ocSoRV0LLIQpv0sCoCA0EGNmw\"><em>click here</em></a>)\r\n\r\n<strong>Myth 3: Debt mutual funds offer decent returns with low volatility</strong>\r\nSalespeople who earn a living by selling mutual funds have popularised the idea that HNWs should invest in debt funds which give industry-beating returns. In spite of the repeated high-profile reverses suffered by prominent mutual fund houses who have high risk, low-quality paper in their debt funds, the intermediary community continues to sell such products. So, why are debt funds far riskier to invest than many investors perceive them to be (and many intermediaries let on)? Monika Halan, the personal finance guru, has provided an excellent explanation on the subject on Value Research <em>(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c541c99a83&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc541c99a83%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGj67EPms-VwQJclzPaCmUgShI13g\">click here</a>)</em>\r\n\r\nIn our book <em>‘Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’</em> (2018), we explained the issue in the following manner: A debt mutual fund’s return is a function of: 1) Yield to Maturity or YTM, 2) Mark to Market or MTM, and 3) Expense Ratio. Let’s delve into each of these three items.\r\n\r\nMTM and the expense ratio should not differ markedly between debt mutual funds. That brings us to the YTM of a debt fund which is the weighted average yield of all its investments. The yield of a debt fund depends on the credit quality of its portfolio. All corporate debt is ‘rated’ basis the probability of the corporate defaulting on its debt obligations. These ratings are provided by credit rating agencies who, the world over, are conflicted because the issuer of the debt pays the credit rating agency its fees. The debt issuers with the strongest balance sheets get a rating of ‘AAA’ implying that the probability of default is like a government bond. In contrast, the companies with poor debt management may get a rating of ‘B’.\r\n\r\nThere tends to be an inverse correlation between the rating enjoyed by the debt issuer and the YTM on the issuer’s bonds i.e. companies with strongest ratings enjoy the lowest YTMs. That in turn means that a fund manager who stuffs his debt portfolio full of highly rated bonds, will have a fund with a low YTM and hence it will give low returns. However, that will make the fund unpopular with the army of salespeople who sell such products. So, fund managers who want to earn big bonuses tend to stuff their debt funds full of bonds with low credit ratings. For a few years such funds deliver high returns and then one day when the whole thing blows up, millions of investors find that their savings in debt funds are worth much less than they thought they would be. For a few years after, HNWs steer clear of debt funds, but as the memory of the previous debt fiasco fades, the intermediaries get to work again and the cycle of wealth destruction repeats itself.\r\n\r\n<strong>Myth 4: GDP growth drives the stock market. So, if I can time the economic cycle, I (or my wealth manager) can time the stock market</strong>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3660 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"408\" />\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_3572159981932207622m_32859592885458339templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n\r\nAs pointed out in our 26<sup>th</sup> November 2019 blog, the relationship between Nifty EPS growth and GDP growth seems to have completely broken down in the last five years<em> (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b125e4f8ac&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db125e4f8ac%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGNlk_TaxmkJ45WyFznvR62pjcpg\">click here</a>).</em> Note:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The growing gap between the two lines in the chart above; and</li>\r\n 	<li>The fact that the lines often go in opposite directions.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHence, the Nifty no longer appears to be a play on the Indian economy.\r\n\r\nTo understand why the Nifty no longer captures the dynamism of the Indian economy a good place to start is the index as it stood ten years ago. The ten-year share price return from investing in the Nifty is 9% (on a total return basis) i.e. significantly lower than India’s nominal GDP growth which over the preceding decade has been around 12% per annum.\r\n\r\nMore generally, across the world there tends to be low or no correlation between the stock market and GDP growth, implying that timing the stock market is not possible on a systematic basis. Ben Inker of the fund management house, GMO, published an article in 2012 where he concluded that <em>“Stock market returns do not require a particular level of GDP growth, nor does a particular level of GDP growth imply anything about stock market returns.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe valuation guru Aswath Damodaran says that the causal relationship instead of running from GDP growth to the stock market instead runs the other way round i.e. stock markets are predictors of GDP growth (rather than being “reflectors of GDP growth”). He highlights a 30% correlation between stock market returns in the US in period t and GDP growth four quarters hence – see slide 8 of this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b16f58757a&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db16f58757a%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEZm7Xp2znd7u2J4qp3bAxp_k9XgA\">presentation</a>.\r\n\r\n<strong>Reality: The only reliable way to compound with relatively low risk is CCP</strong>\r\nNo one that we have met can time the stock market. Neither can we, and we make no attempt to do so. We know of only one way to generate significant real returns in a consistent manner – buy clean, well-managed Indian companies selling essential products behind very high barriers to entry. We call this approach to investing Consistent Compounding and have seen, both in theory and in practice, that it works.\r\n\r\nTo build the portfolio without using any human judgement each year on 30<sup>th</sup> June we invest in stocks which in each of the preceding ten years have grown revenues at double digits AND delivered pretax-ROCE of at least 15% per annum (throughout the ten year period). We then hold these stocks for the next ten years. If we had invested Rs 100 using this method on 30<sup>th</sup> June 2000 then in mid-May 2020 our wealth would have compounded to Rs 1463, a compounded return of 14.4% per annum. In contrast, the same exercise with the Sensex would have yielded Rs 673 implying a return of 10.1% per annum. (Note: both returns are expressed on a total return basis.) In short, in the space of twenty years, using the most rudimentary of financial filters, the Consistent Compounding method of investing would give you almost 15x compounding on your wealth as opposed to a mere 7x compounding from the Sensex. For more details, please refer to our book ‘Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Returns’ (2018).\r\n\r\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea, Deven Kulkarni and Amaya Chinai are CIO, Analyst and Intern respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a20222c328&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da20222c328%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGcmGzn1jf2axt8MJ6WCbBD4B2nTg\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>)   </em>\r\n\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_3572159981932207622m_32859592885458339templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Most Damaging Myths in Indian Investing', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-most-damaging-myths-in-indian-investing', '', '', '2020-06-29 12:14:25', '2020-06-29 12:14:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3654', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
(3655, 1, '2020-06-24 10:56:41', '2020-06-24 10:56:41', '', 'unnamed', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'unnamed', '', '', '2020-06-24 10:56:41', '2020-06-24 10:56:41', '', 3654, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3668, 1, '2020-06-29 05:07:58', '2020-06-29 05:07:58', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3667-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:07:58', '2020-06-29 05:07:58', '', 3667, 'https://marcellus.in/3667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3669, 1, '2020-06-29 05:15:11', '2020-06-29 05:15:11', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3667-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:15:11', '2020-06-29 05:15:11', '', 3667, 'https://marcellus.in/3667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3393, 1, '2020-05-22 13:16:15', '2020-05-22 13:16:15', '<div>When stock markets crash during an economic crisis, the move to the bottom is usually so fast, that investors seldom get a chance to react in a rational manner. With panic all around, many end up exiting their investments at or near the bottom. Further, with uncertainty on when the economy will recover, its hard to commit to fresh investments. In the process, investors lose an opportunity to gain from a stock market recovery, which usually precedes an improvement in the economy.</div>\r\nOver the last few months, many of our clients in Marcellus’ PMS products have reached out to us with questions on how to navigate the ongoing Covid19-led crisis. In response to the many questions raised, we decided to pick relevant reading material from our various newsletters, blogs, webinars etc., and put it together in a succinct guide that could help readers find their way around these uncertain times. The result is <strong>“Investing Through a Crisis – A Handbook from Marcellus Investment Managers”</strong>. We are pleased to share a copy of this handbook with you and hope you find value in it. Needless to say, we are always available to answer any of your queries or address any of your concerns in person too.\r\n\r\n<strong><a href=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Investing-Through-a-Crisis-A-handbook-from-Marcellus.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Ddb4eeea8fe%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590234291854000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGT6KeH2cye6xj0blOpI6oz3-EQ8Q\"><em>Click here</em> </a></strong>to download the Handbook.', 'Investing Through a Crisis: A Handbook from Marcellus Investment Managers', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'investing-through-a-crisis-a-handbook-from-marcellus-investment-managers', '', '', '2020-06-12 11:52:54', '2020-06-12 11:52:54', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3393', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(3368, 1, '2020-05-17 04:09:27', '2020-05-17 04:09:27', 'The greatness of the New Yorker lies not just in writing well researched articles on well known people (eg. Yuval Noah Harari on whom the New Yorker published a brilliant cover story a few months ago) but also in the magazine’s manifest ability to write carefully crafted pieces about important but less celebrated people eg. this piece on the British mathematician and philosopher Frank Ramsey who passed away at the age of 26 in 1930.\r\nRamsey arrived at Cambridge as an undergraduate at the age of 20. His precocity was such that in the next six years not only was he made a lecturer at Cambridge University but the breakthroughs he made in that short span of time still resonate with mathematicians, with economists and with philosophers.\r\n<em>“When Ramsey later published a paper about rates of saving, Keynes called it “one of the most remarkable contributions to mathematical economics ever made.” Its most controversial idea was that the well-being of future generations should be given the same weight as that of the present one. Discounting the interests of future people, Ramsey wrote, is “ethically indefensible and arises merely from the weakness of the imagination.” In the wake of the Great Depression, economists had more pressing concerns; only decades later did the paper’s enormous impact arrive. And so it went with most of Ramsey’s work. His contribution to pure mathematics was tucked away inside a paper on something else. It consisted of two theorems that he used to investigate the procedures for determining the validity of logical formulas. More than forty years after they were published, these two tools became the basis of a branch of mathematics known as Ramsey theory, which analyzes order and disorder. (As an Oxford mathematician, Martin Gould, has explained, Ramsey theory tells us, for instance, that among any six users of Facebook there will always be either a trio of mutual friends or a trio in which none are friends.)… Economists now study Ramsey pricing; mathematicians ponder Ramsey numbers. Philosophers talk about Ramsey sentences, Ramseyfication, and the Ramsey test. Not a few scholars believe that there are Ramseyan seams still to mine.”</em>\r\nMost of us now use probability to weigh up the relative merits of competing subjective beliefs. In doing so, we are following the theory first laid down by Ramsey nearly a century ago: <em>“In 1926, Ramsey composed a long paper about truth and probability which looked at the effects of what he called “partial beliefs”—that is, of people’s judgments of probability. This may have been his most influential work. It ingeniously used the bets one would make in hypothetical situations to measure how firmly one believes a proposition and how much one wants something, and thus laid the foundations of what are now known as decision theory and the subjective theory of probability.”</em>\r\nIn India, we are now accustomed to seeing GST rates for various items being altered with metronomic regularity. We are also addicted to the annual fiddling of our Income Tax rates by the Finance Minister. This practice too traces its origins to Frank Ramsey: <em>“Ramsey hoped to turn his essay about truth and probability into a book, which he worked on in the late twenties, but during this time he also produced two articles for The Economic Journal, which was edited by Keynes. One was the article on savings—Ramsey mentioned to Keynes that it was “much easier to concentrate on than philosophy”—and the other was about tax, and ultimately no less consequential. Its key proposal is that, given certain conditions, the rates of sales taxes should be set in such a way that the production of each taxed commodity falls by the same proportion. The tax article, like the savings one, eventually became the basis of a subfield of economics concerned with “optimal taxation,” and changed the way economists thought about public finance.”</em>\r\nIn common with other great minds, Ramsey had an insatiable for reading from a very young age: <em>“Ramsey’s father, Arthur, claimed that Frank, his eldest child, learned to read almost as soon as he could talk…By the last year of Frank’s school days, he was apparently consuming books about economics, politics, physics, logic, and other subjects at a rate of almost one a day. On the holidays, he learned German, so that he could read some volumes of mathematics and philosophy in their original language. In his aptitude for math, he followed his father, a Cambridge mathematician and the author of textbooks in math and physics.”</em>\r\nFrank Ramsey’s father was a Cambridge don and his mother, Agnes, studied history at Oxford and was a feminist and a left-wing activist. As a result young Frank had unfettered access to the intellectual giants of the post-World War I world: <em>“After his first meeting with Keynes, in Cambridge, Ramsey recorded that he found him “very pleasant”; on a walk, they had talked about the history of economics, the lamentable state of probability theory, and the difficulty of writing. Ramsey was seventeen at the time; Keynes was advising the League of Nations and the Bank of England, and lunching with Winston Churchill….Ramsey was also an enthusiastic, though not uncritical, admirer of Wittgenstein’s “Tractatus”—a book that Wittgenstein, who first arrived in Cambridge to work with Russell in 1911, completed seven years later, as a soldier in the Austro-Hungarian Army interned in an Italian P.O.W. camp. The “Tractatus” argued that philosophical problems are the result of misunderstanding the logic of language. By revealing its real logic, Wittgenstein believed, he had solved them all. His account of logic enthralled Ramsey, who, in 1921, was recruited to translate the book into English. A few months after his graduation, in 1923, Ramsey spent a fortnight in Austria, and grilled Wittgenstein about the “Tractatus.””</em>\r\nMore insights on the life and times of this intellectual giant can be found in a new book “Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers” (Oxford), by Cheryl Misak, a philosophy professor at the University of Toronto.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Man Who Thought Too Fast', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-man-who-thought-too-fast', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:15:37', '2020-05-18 04:15:37', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3368', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(3369, 1, '2020-05-18 04:15:37', '2020-05-18 04:15:37', 'The greatness of the New Yorker lies not just in writing well researched articles on well known people (eg. Yuval Noah Harari on whom the New Yorker published a brilliant cover story a few months ago) but also in the magazine’s manifest ability to write carefully crafted pieces about important but less celebrated people eg. this piece on the British mathematician and philosopher Frank Ramsey who passed away at the age of 26 in 1930.\r\nRamsey arrived at Cambridge as an undergraduate at the age of 20. His precocity was such that in the next six years not only was he made a lecturer at Cambridge University but the breakthroughs he made in that short span of time still resonate with mathematicians, with economists and with philosophers.\r\n<em>“When Ramsey later published a paper about rates of saving, Keynes called it “one of the most remarkable contributions to mathematical economics ever made.” Its most controversial idea was that the well-being of future generations should be given the same weight as that of the present one. Discounting the interests of future people, Ramsey wrote, is “ethically indefensible and arises merely from the weakness of the imagination.” In the wake of the Great Depression, economists had more pressing concerns; only decades later did the paper’s enormous impact arrive. And so it went with most of Ramsey’s work. His contribution to pure mathematics was tucked away inside a paper on something else. It consisted of two theorems that he used to investigate the procedures for determining the validity of logical formulas. More than forty years after they were published, these two tools became the basis of a branch of mathematics known as Ramsey theory, which analyzes order and disorder. (As an Oxford mathematician, Martin Gould, has explained, Ramsey theory tells us, for instance, that among any six users of Facebook there will always be either a trio of mutual friends or a trio in which none are friends.)… Economists now study Ramsey pricing; mathematicians ponder Ramsey numbers. Philosophers talk about Ramsey sentences, Ramseyfication, and the Ramsey test. Not a few scholars believe that there are Ramseyan seams still to mine.”</em>\r\nMost of us now use probability to weigh up the relative merits of competing subjective beliefs. In doing so, we are following the theory first laid down by Ramsey nearly a century ago: <em>“In 1926, Ramsey composed a long paper about truth and probability which looked at the effects of what he called “partial beliefs”—that is, of people’s judgments of probability. This may have been his most influential work. It ingeniously used the bets one would make in hypothetical situations to measure how firmly one believes a proposition and how much one wants something, and thus laid the foundations of what are now known as decision theory and the subjective theory of probability.”</em>\r\nIn India, we are now accustomed to seeing GST rates for various items being altered with metronomic regularity. We are also addicted to the annual fiddling of our Income Tax rates by the Finance Minister. This practice too traces its origins to Frank Ramsey: <em>“Ramsey hoped to turn his essay about truth and probability into a book, which he worked on in the late twenties, but during this time he also produced two articles for The Economic Journal, which was edited by Keynes. One was the article on savings—Ramsey mentioned to Keynes that it was “much easier to concentrate on than philosophy”—and the other was about tax, and ultimately no less consequential. Its key proposal is that, given certain conditions, the rates of sales taxes should be set in such a way that the production of each taxed commodity falls by the same proportion. The tax article, like the savings one, eventually became the basis of a subfield of economics concerned with “optimal taxation,” and changed the way economists thought about public finance.”</em>\r\nIn common with other great minds, Ramsey had an insatiable for reading from a very young age: <em>“Ramsey’s father, Arthur, claimed that Frank, his eldest child, learned to read almost as soon as he could talk…By the last year of Frank’s school days, he was apparently consuming books about economics, politics, physics, logic, and other subjects at a rate of almost one a day. On the holidays, he learned German, so that he could read some volumes of mathematics and philosophy in their original language. In his aptitude for math, he followed his father, a Cambridge mathematician and the author of textbooks in math and physics.”</em>\r\nFrank Ramsey’s father was a Cambridge don and his mother, Agnes, studied history at Oxford and was a feminist and a left-wing activist. As a result young Frank had unfettered access to the intellectual giants of the post-World War I world: <em>“After his first meeting with Keynes, in Cambridge, Ramsey recorded that he found him “very pleasant”; on a walk, they had talked about the history of economics, the lamentable state of probability theory, and the difficulty of writing. Ramsey was seventeen at the time; Keynes was advising the League of Nations and the Bank of England, and lunching with Winston Churchill….Ramsey was also an enthusiastic, though not uncritical, admirer of Wittgenstein’s “Tractatus”—a book that Wittgenstein, who first arrived in Cambridge to work with Russell in 1911, completed seven years later, as a soldier in the Austro-Hungarian Army interned in an Italian P.O.W. camp. The “Tractatus” argued that philosophical problems are the result of misunderstanding the logic of language. By revealing its real logic, Wittgenstein believed, he had solved them all. His account of logic enthralled Ramsey, who, in 1921, was recruited to translate the book into English. A few months after his graduation, in 1923, Ramsey spent a fortnight in Austria, and grilled Wittgenstein about the “Tractatus.””</em>\r\nMore insights on the life and times of this intellectual giant can be found in a new book “Frank Ramsey: A Sheer Excess of Powers” (Oxford), by Cheryl Misak, a philosophy professor at the University of Toronto.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;', 'The Man Who Thought Too Fast', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3368-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:15:37', '2020-05-18 04:15:37', '', 3368, 'https://marcellus.in/3368-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3370, 1, '2020-05-17 04:15:54', '2020-05-17 04:15:54', 'This long read from The Guardian encapsulates all that is right about global capitalism (eg. lightning fast responses to business opportunities and human needs which can be monetised) and everything else which gives it a bad name (eg. the ever pressing need to loot the needy). Samanth Subramanian explains that even now nobody is clear whether wearing a mask all the time is a good thing or bad thing: <em>“No one even seemed to know precisely how useful masks were, or who should wear them. The advice we got was a mess. The World Health Organization maintained, at first, that healthy people had no need for masks. But people bought masks anyway. Shelves were emptied. People improvised. A friend of mine in Tel Aviv ended up fashioning one for herself out of her husband’s boxer shorts – washed and dried, she assured me, and slid over her head like a balaclava. Then, in early April, the WHO reversed its counsel, and a host of governments followed suit, which sparked a fresh run on mask stocks.”</em>\r\nAs a result of the WHO’s edict we all now wear masks but, like in everything else we consume, a hierarchy has emerged rapidly: <em>“We have been living with the coronavirus long enough now that we can distinguish the various tribes of mask-wearers. Note the shopper in the pasta aisle, clad in a classic white N95 with the 3M manufacturer logo just under the snout. The N95 and its equivalents keep out nearly every particle larger than 0.3 microns, and although the virus is tinier, the fibres in the mask’s layers obstruct its passage. These masks are meant to go first to healthcare workers, which might explain the shopper’s furtive, guilty eyes. Note the finance bro out for his allotted hour of jogging, wearing a Vogmask – a brand so stylish that its midnight-blue model might even match his suit when he eventually returns to the City. Note the extreme worrier in the GVS Elipse P100, the heavy-duty mask that promises to keep out 99.97% of particles. In the age of Covid-19, the equivalent of sensible shoes may be the simple surgical mask or the home-hemmed cloth. The gaps in their weave are big enough for the virus to pass through, but they do at least protect others from the wearer’s sneezes and coughs.”</em>\r\nThe shortage of masks has obviously created a business opportunity for masks brokers and just like investment banks hawking loans launch an NBFC when they see how much money lenders make, mask brokers are now becoming mask manufacturers. The article profiles a HK based entrepreneur who has morphed from running a digital payments company to becoming a mask broker and now a mask manufacturer to who hopes to sell each mask for 6 British pounds (Rs 500). The cost of making and transporting these masks is actually less than one British pound.\r\nSo now for the billion dollar question: why exactly are the masks in short supply? <em>“The pandemic has brought on a global shortage of masks, which is really a global shortage of one particular plastic inside the masks – a type of non-woven polypropylene that acts as a filter. In casual conversation, people in the mask business call the plastic “meltblown”, referring to how its plastic filaments are made. Meltblown goes into many things: jackets, nappies, filters in water purifiers and air conditioners. Masks are in short supply not because they’re difficult to produce, but because the meltblown industry is used to stable, long-term demand. It churns out just enough for its customers and no more. To install an assembly line of meltblown takes many months, even at the calmest of times; with demand now soaring, some companies supplying meltblown equipment are quoting timelines of up to two years to even deliver a new machine.</em>\r\n<em>Hot out of the plant, meltblown looks like a giant toilet roll: 15,000 yards or so of polypropylene wrapped around a cardboard core. The material feels like synthetic cloth, but it’s so thin that you might accidentally put your finger through it, an executive at one American meltblown manufacturer told me. He asked to keep his and his company’s names out of this article, for a reason I’ve never been given before. They don’t want to be known more widely, he said: “We’re so overburdened with enquiries already. If any further information gets out, that’s another thousand messages coming in every day. That makes it impossible to do any work.” Until last year, just 2 or 3% of his company’s meltblown went into face masks, he said. This year, it’s 95%.”</em>', 'How the face mask became the world\'s most coveted commodity', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-the-face-mask-became-the-worlds-most-coveted-commodity', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:18:27', '2020-05-18 04:18:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3370', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3371, 1, '2020-05-18 04:18:27', '2020-05-18 04:18:27', 'This long read from The Guardian encapsulates all that is right about global capitalism (eg. lightning fast responses to business opportunities and human needs which can be monetised) and everything else which gives it a bad name (eg. the ever pressing need to loot the needy). Samanth Subramanian explains that even now nobody is clear whether wearing a mask all the time is a good thing or bad thing: <em>“No one even seemed to know precisely how useful masks were, or who should wear them. The advice we got was a mess. The World Health Organization maintained, at first, that healthy people had no need for masks. But people bought masks anyway. Shelves were emptied. People improvised. A friend of mine in Tel Aviv ended up fashioning one for herself out of her husband’s boxer shorts – washed and dried, she assured me, and slid over her head like a balaclava. Then, in early April, the WHO reversed its counsel, and a host of governments followed suit, which sparked a fresh run on mask stocks.”</em>\r\nAs a result of the WHO’s edict we all now wear masks but, like in everything else we consume, a hierarchy has emerged rapidly: <em>“We have been living with the coronavirus long enough now that we can distinguish the various tribes of mask-wearers. Note the shopper in the pasta aisle, clad in a classic white N95 with the 3M manufacturer logo just under the snout. The N95 and its equivalents keep out nearly every particle larger than 0.3 microns, and although the virus is tinier, the fibres in the mask’s layers obstruct its passage. These masks are meant to go first to healthcare workers, which might explain the shopper’s furtive, guilty eyes. Note the finance bro out for his allotted hour of jogging, wearing a Vogmask – a brand so stylish that its midnight-blue model might even match his suit when he eventually returns to the City. Note the extreme worrier in the GVS Elipse P100, the heavy-duty mask that promises to keep out 99.97% of particles. In the age of Covid-19, the equivalent of sensible shoes may be the simple surgical mask or the home-hemmed cloth. The gaps in their weave are big enough for the virus to pass through, but they do at least protect others from the wearer’s sneezes and coughs.”</em>\r\nThe shortage of masks has obviously created a business opportunity for masks brokers and just like investment banks hawking loans launch an NBFC when they see how much money lenders make, mask brokers are now becoming mask manufacturers. The article profiles a HK based entrepreneur who has morphed from running a digital payments company to becoming a mask broker and now a mask manufacturer to who hopes to sell each mask for 6 British pounds (Rs 500). The cost of making and transporting these masks is actually less than one British pound.\r\nSo now for the billion dollar question: why exactly are the masks in short supply? <em>“The pandemic has brought on a global shortage of masks, which is really a global shortage of one particular plastic inside the masks – a type of non-woven polypropylene that acts as a filter. In casual conversation, people in the mask business call the plastic “meltblown”, referring to how its plastic filaments are made. Meltblown goes into many things: jackets, nappies, filters in water purifiers and air conditioners. Masks are in short supply not because they’re difficult to produce, but because the meltblown industry is used to stable, long-term demand. It churns out just enough for its customers and no more. To install an assembly line of meltblown takes many months, even at the calmest of times; with demand now soaring, some companies supplying meltblown equipment are quoting timelines of up to two years to even deliver a new machine.</em>\r\n<em>Hot out of the plant, meltblown looks like a giant toilet roll: 15,000 yards or so of polypropylene wrapped around a cardboard core. The material feels like synthetic cloth, but it’s so thin that you might accidentally put your finger through it, an executive at one American meltblown manufacturer told me. He asked to keep his and his company’s names out of this article, for a reason I’ve never been given before. They don’t want to be known more widely, he said: “We’re so overburdened with enquiries already. If any further information gets out, that’s another thousand messages coming in every day. That makes it impossible to do any work.” Until last year, just 2 or 3% of his company’s meltblown went into face masks, he said. This year, it’s 95%.”</em>', 'How the face mask became the world\'s most coveted commodity', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3370-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:18:27', '2020-05-18 04:18:27', '', 3370, 'https://marcellus.in/3370-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3372, 1, '2020-05-17 04:18:42', '2020-05-17 04:18:42', 'The proliferation of the blog scene has thrown several interesting writers but few can combine original thought and content with an equally strong ability to articulate in prose. David Perell is one of them. Indeed, David takes an online <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0c13c3b3ec&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0c13c3b3ec%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHwrxWBSHsxwpUNU7gw0flkazW_lQ\">course</a> on writing. In this passionate blog on how our rigid education systems have created unhappy kids who grow up to become ‘successful’ yet frustrated adults. The disciplined environment of schools takes away the freewill of people which causes this lack of fulfilment. Indeed, not just in education, even in sport, the ability to exercise one’s ‘choice’ or lack thereof can make a big difference as he highlights the example of the tennis legend – Andre Agassi. Agassi, who almost took to drugs to cope with the pressure from his father to succeed in tennis, turned around when he eventually ‘chose’ tennis.\r\n<em>“Boomers grew up in a credentialed world where people were defined by the school on their college diploma. Students benefited from college not because of the education they received, but because of sexy diplomas and tight personal networks….Meanwhile, the average college diploma isn’t the signal of prestige it once was. The number of Americans with a college degree has risen by more than 300% since 1970, leading to credential inflation where people need more and more education just to stay in place..</em>\r\n<em>More and more parents are encouraging more and more children to fight zero-sum battles like the college admissions process. This childhood rat race is packaged as ambitious, even though it actually rests behind a facade of sheep-like, anxiety-creating complacency.</em>\r\n<em>As Ivan Illich wrote in Deschooling Society: “The pupil is thereby ‘schooled’ to confuse teaching with learning, grade advancement with education, a diploma with competence, and fluency with the ability to say something new.” My grade school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for high school, my high school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for college, and my college teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for the professional world. But it was a lie. As I sat in class, I felt like a domesticated animal, training to serve the needs of institutions instead of myself.</em>\r\n<em>Kids who don’t conform to the narrow demands of the education system are diagnosed with ADHD and prescribed addictive psychoactive drugs. As Peter Gray, the author of Free to Learn, has observed, these drugs are designed to suppress a child’s instincts so they can sit down, shut up, and slave through busywork</em>\r\n<em>Tragically, the growth in ADHD prescriptions has accelerated since the turn of the century. In an article called “The Drugging of the American Boy,” Ryan D’Agostino argues that many of these diagnoses are false. Today, 6.4 million children between the ages of 4-17 have been diagnosed with ADHD. Almost 20 percent of all American boys will now be diagnosed with ADHD by high school, a 37 percent increase since 2003. Instead of building a system that respects the biology of kids, we are destroying childhood — one synthetic pill at a time.</em>\r\n<em>….New York, where I live, is defined by its live-for-the-weekend culture. Young professionals who move to New York have dreams of building fame, wealth, or power by climbing the corporate ladder. The most talented university graduates disproportionately fall into sectors like law, investment banking, and management consulting. To numb the pain of sitting at a desk for 50-80 hours per week and the Hunger Games levels of competition for a small number of competitive positions, New York’s social scene revolves around a culture of binge drinking. y friend said, “My parents tried so hard to make me successful but never stopped to ask if I was enjoying myself. They are proud of what I’m doing, and since I work for an impressive company, they just assume I’m happy.”</em>\r\n<em>….Success shouldn’t be synonymous with how good you are at forcing yourself to do what you don’t want to do. We should rebel against a world that rewards mechanical levels of specialization. In the will to succeed, we subject ourselves to toxic and health-destroying work environments. Instead of questioning our habits, we counterbalance the pain of work with a ritual of reckless bar crawls. Instead of conforming the system to human nature, we conform human nature to the system.</em>\r\n<em>When we discipline people against their will, we create negative repercussions….Suffocating a person’s free will for too long will result in harmful second-order effects for individuals and society at-large. This is the price of discipline.”</em>', 'The Price of Discipline', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-price-of-discipline', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:36:41', '2020-05-18 04:36:41', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3372', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3373, 1, '2020-05-18 04:20:24', '2020-05-18 04:20:24', 'The proliferation of the blog scene has thrown several interesting writers but few can combine original thought and content with an equally strong ability to articulate in prose. David Perell is one of them. Indeed, David takes an online <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0c13c3b3ec&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0c13c3b3ec%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHwrxWBSHsxwpUNU7gw0flkazW_lQ\">course</a> on writing. In this passionate blog on how our rigid education systems have created unhappy kids who grow up to become ‘successful’ yet frustrated adults. The disciplined environment of schools takes away the freewill of people which causes this lack of fulfilment. Indeed, not just in education, even in sport, the ability to exercise one’s ‘choice’ or lack thereof can make a big difference as he highlights the example of the tennis legend – Andre Agassi. Agassi, who almost took to drugs to cope with the pressure from his father to succeed in tennis, turned around when he eventually ‘chose’ tennis.\r\n<em>“Boomers grew up in a credentialed world where people were defined by the school on their college diploma. Students benefited from college not because of the education they received, but because of sexy diplomas and tight personal networks….Meanwhile, the average college diploma isn’t the signal of prestige it once was. The number of Americans with a college degree has risen by more than 300% since 1970, leading to credential inflation where people need more and more education just to stay in place..</em>\r\n<em>More and more parents are encouraging more and more children to fight zero-sum battles like the college admissions process. This childhood rat race is packaged as ambitious, even though it actually rests behind a facade of sheep-like, anxiety-creating complacency.</em>\r\n<em>As Ivan Illich wrote in Deschooling Society: “The pupil is thereby ‘schooled’ to confuse teaching with learning, grade advancement with education, a diploma with competence, and fluency with the ability to say something new.” My grade school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for high school, my high school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for college, and my college teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for the professional world. But it was a lie. As I sat in class, I felt like a domesticated animal, training to serve the needs of institutions instead of myself.</em>\r\n<em>Kids who don’t conform to the narrow demands of the education system are diagnosed with ADHD and prescribed addictive psychoactive drugs. As Peter Gray, the author of Free to Learn, has observed, these drugs are designed to suppress a child’s instincts so they can sit down, shut up, and slave through busywork</em>\r\n<em>Tragically, the growth in ADHD prescriptions has accelerated since the turn of the century. In an article called “The Drugging of the American Boy,” Ryan D’Agostino argues that many of these diagnoses are false. Today, 6.4 million children between the ages of 4-17 have been diagnosed with ADHD. Almost 20 percent of all American boys will now be diagnosed with ADHD by high school, a 37 percent increase since 2003. Instead of building a system that respects the biology of kids, we are destroying childhood — one synthetic pill at a time.</em>\r\n<em>….New York, where I live, is defined by its live-for-the-weekend culture. Young professionals who move to New York have dreams of building fame, wealth, or power by climbing the corporate ladder. The most talented university graduates disproportionately fall into sectors like law, investment banking, and management consulting. To numb the pain of sitting at a desk for 50-80 hours per week and the Hunger Games levels of competition for a small number of competitive positions, New York’s social scene revolves around a culture of binge drinking. y friend said, “My parents tried so hard to make me successful but never stopped to ask if I was enjoying myself. They are proud of what I’m doing, and since I work for an impressive company, they just assume I’m happy.”</em>\r\n<em>….Success shouldn’t be synonymous with how good you are at forcing yourself to do what you don’t want to do. We should rebel against a world that rewards mechanical levels of specialization. In the will to succeed, we subject ourselves to toxic and health-destroying work environments. Instead of questioning our habits, we counterbalance the pain of work with a ritual of reckless bar crawls. Instead of conforming the system to human nature, we conform human nature to the system.</em>\r\n<em>When we discipline people against their will, we create negative repercussions….Suffocating a person’s free will for too long will result in harmful second-order effects for individuals and society at-large. This is the price of discipline.”</em>', 'The Price of Discipline', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3372-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:20:24', '2020-05-18 04:20:24', '', 3372, 'https://marcellus.in/3372-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3374, 1, '2020-05-17 04:21:05', '2020-05-17 04:21:05', 'Earlier this week, we published a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=67f3151df5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D67f3151df5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH8LXODCufJVLl5u3ra_faOalm08A\">blog</a> about the rising concentration of profits in India amongst a handful of companies – the 20 most profitable firms in India now generate 70% of the country’s profits, up from 14% thirty years ago. In response, one of our readers shared this piece from Mckinsey which shows similar findings from a study of the world’s 2,393 largest companies.\r\n<em>“At its heart, business strategy is about beating the market—in other words, defying the power of “perfect” markets to push economic surplus back to zero. Economic profit (the total profit after the cost of capital is subtracted) measures the success of that defiance by showing what is left on the table after the forces of competition have played out. Our study found that from 2010 to 2014, the average company made $180 million a year in economic profit. Plotting those averages demonstrates a power law—the tails of the curve rise and fall at exponential rates, with long flatlands in the middle….You see a big gap between the middle and the top—the average economic profit on the top quintile is 30 times greater!”</em>\r\nThe blog resonates well with Marcellus\' investment philosophy about why economic profit (the excess returns over cost of capital) matters as perhaps the ultimate measure of value creation for the firm and why competitive forces are always at work to erode this. Therefore, assessing a firm’s competitive advantage and sustainability of the same and hence sustainability of these excess returns is the central focus at Marcellus.\r\n<strong><em>“Market forces are pretty efficient.</em></strong><em> The average company generates returns that exceed the cost of capital by almost 2 percentage points, but the market is chipping away at those profits all the time. That brutal competition is why you must struggle just to stay in place. For companies in the middle of the Power Curve, the market takes a heavy toll. In those flat lands, all the hard work amounts to little more than the ability to pay the rent.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The curve is extremely steep at the bookends. </em></strong><em>Companies in the top quintile capture nearly 90% of the economic profit created, averaging $1.4 billion annually. This is a hall of fame for business, with the top 40 including household names such as Microsoft, China Mobile, Merck and Exxon. In fact, those in the top quintile average some 30 times as much economic profit as those in the middle three quintiles, while the bottom 20% suffer deep economic losses. In smartphones, for example, the top two companies—Apple and Samsung in the period we studied—earned virtually all the economic profit while the other mobile phone makers in aggregate actually destroyed value.”</em>\r\nThe blog brings out the other aspect that alongside excess returns over cost of capital, if these excess returns can be reinvested back into the capital employed, absolute levels of economic profit grows.\r\n<strong><em>“Size isn’t everything, but it isn’t nothing, either.</em></strong><em> Economic profit reflects the strength of a strategy based not only on the power of its economic formula but also on how scalable that formula is. Compare Wal-Mart, with a moderate 12% return on capital but a whopping $136 billion of invested capital, with Starbucks, which has a huge 50% return on capital but is limited by being in a much less scalable category, deploying only $2.6 billion of invested capital. They both generated enormous value, but the difference in economic profit is substantial: $5.3 billion for Wal-Mart versus $1.1 billion for Starbucks.”</em>\r\nThe study shows that certain industries simply don’t lend themselves to building moats with the industry making economic losses on an average.\r\n<strong><em>“Industry matters, a lot.</em></strong><em> Our analysis shows that about 50% of your positioning on the Power Curve is driven by your industry—highlighting just how critical the “where to play” choice is in strategy. Industry performance also follows a Power Curve, with the same hanging tail and high leading peak…There are 12 tobacco companies in our research, and nine are in the top quintile. Yet there are 20 paper companies, and none is in the top quintile. The role of industry in a company’s position on the Power Curve is so substantial that you’d rather be an average company in a great industry than a great company in an average industry. In some cases, you’d rather be in your supplier’s industry than in your own. For example, the average economic profit of airlines is a loss of $99 million, while suppliers in the aerospace and defense category average a profit of $453 million.”</em>\r\nThe blog also shows why investing in mediocre companies expecting them to become better have such poor odds.\r\n<strong><em>“Mobility is elusive.</em></strong><em> We found that the odds of a company moving from the middle quintiles of the Power Curve to the top quintile over a 10-year period are 8%. Consider that number for a moment: it means fewer than 1 in 10 companies make such a leap. To give yourself the best chance, you must choose the right businesses in your portfolio to back. Their chances of showing real improvement are also 1 in 10.”</em>', 'Is your strategy good enough to move you up on the power curve?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'is-your-strategy-good-enough-to-move-you-up-on-the-power-curve', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:22:47', '2020-05-18 04:22:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3374', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3375, 1, '2020-05-18 04:22:47', '2020-05-18 04:22:47', 'Earlier this week, we published a <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=67f3151df5&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D67f3151df5%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH8LXODCufJVLl5u3ra_faOalm08A\">blog</a> about the rising concentration of profits in India amongst a handful of companies – the 20 most profitable firms in India now generate 70% of the country’s profits, up from 14% thirty years ago. In response, one of our readers shared this piece from Mckinsey which shows similar findings from a study of the world’s 2,393 largest companies.\r\n<em>“At its heart, business strategy is about beating the market—in other words, defying the power of “perfect” markets to push economic surplus back to zero. Economic profit (the total profit after the cost of capital is subtracted) measures the success of that defiance by showing what is left on the table after the forces of competition have played out. Our study found that from 2010 to 2014, the average company made $180 million a year in economic profit. Plotting those averages demonstrates a power law—the tails of the curve rise and fall at exponential rates, with long flatlands in the middle….You see a big gap between the middle and the top—the average economic profit on the top quintile is 30 times greater!”</em>\r\nThe blog resonates well with Marcellus\' investment philosophy about why economic profit (the excess returns over cost of capital) matters as perhaps the ultimate measure of value creation for the firm and why competitive forces are always at work to erode this. Therefore, assessing a firm’s competitive advantage and sustainability of the same and hence sustainability of these excess returns is the central focus at Marcellus.\r\n<strong><em>“Market forces are pretty efficient.</em></strong><em> The average company generates returns that exceed the cost of capital by almost 2 percentage points, but the market is chipping away at those profits all the time. That brutal competition is why you must struggle just to stay in place. For companies in the middle of the Power Curve, the market takes a heavy toll. In those flat lands, all the hard work amounts to little more than the ability to pay the rent.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The curve is extremely steep at the bookends. </em></strong><em>Companies in the top quintile capture nearly 90% of the economic profit created, averaging $1.4 billion annually. This is a hall of fame for business, with the top 40 including household names such as Microsoft, China Mobile, Merck and Exxon. In fact, those in the top quintile average some 30 times as much economic profit as those in the middle three quintiles, while the bottom 20% suffer deep economic losses. In smartphones, for example, the top two companies—Apple and Samsung in the period we studied—earned virtually all the economic profit while the other mobile phone makers in aggregate actually destroyed value.”</em>\r\nThe blog brings out the other aspect that alongside excess returns over cost of capital, if these excess returns can be reinvested back into the capital employed, absolute levels of economic profit grows.\r\n<strong><em>“Size isn’t everything, but it isn’t nothing, either.</em></strong><em> Economic profit reflects the strength of a strategy based not only on the power of its economic formula but also on how scalable that formula is. Compare Wal-Mart, with a moderate 12% return on capital but a whopping $136 billion of invested capital, with Starbucks, which has a huge 50% return on capital but is limited by being in a much less scalable category, deploying only $2.6 billion of invested capital. They both generated enormous value, but the difference in economic profit is substantial: $5.3 billion for Wal-Mart versus $1.1 billion for Starbucks.”</em>\r\nThe study shows that certain industries simply don’t lend themselves to building moats with the industry making economic losses on an average.\r\n<strong><em>“Industry matters, a lot.</em></strong><em> Our analysis shows that about 50% of your positioning on the Power Curve is driven by your industry—highlighting just how critical the “where to play” choice is in strategy. Industry performance also follows a Power Curve, with the same hanging tail and high leading peak…There are 12 tobacco companies in our research, and nine are in the top quintile. Yet there are 20 paper companies, and none is in the top quintile. The role of industry in a company’s position on the Power Curve is so substantial that you’d rather be an average company in a great industry than a great company in an average industry. In some cases, you’d rather be in your supplier’s industry than in your own. For example, the average economic profit of airlines is a loss of $99 million, while suppliers in the aerospace and defense category average a profit of $453 million.”</em>\r\nThe blog also shows why investing in mediocre companies expecting them to become better have such poor odds.\r\n<strong><em>“Mobility is elusive.</em></strong><em> We found that the odds of a company moving from the middle quintiles of the Power Curve to the top quintile over a 10-year period are 8%. Consider that number for a moment: it means fewer than 1 in 10 companies make such a leap. To give yourself the best chance, you must choose the right businesses in your portfolio to back. Their chances of showing real improvement are also 1 in 10.”</em>', 'Is your strategy good enough to move you up on the power curve?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3374-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:22:47', '2020-05-18 04:22:47', '', 3374, 'https://marcellus.in/3374-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3376, 1, '2020-05-17 04:23:02', '2020-05-17 04:23:02', 'Nalanda Capital is one of the most successful investment firms that have come up in the last couple of decades and one that has been an inspiration and source of learning for many of us at Marcellus. Anand Sridharan, an investor at Nalanda writes an entertaining yet enlightening <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d356f14703&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd356f14703%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_X0kzEhyNE6H0u3srodtUwWQJtw\">blog</a> on LinkedIn. This one, as the title says, is about the role of math in investing. In our interviews with potential new hires, we find that the most common answer to ‘why investing as a career?’ is ‘I love maths or I am good at maths’ or some variant of that. Anand busts that myth right upfront – <em>“there’s very little math in investing. At best middle-school level, that too state-board”. </em>However, he goes on to highlight some useful math concepts (still middle school level, perhaps high school at best) that help avoid falling into false narratives based on numbers while investing. Anand discusses multiplicative probabilities, decision trees, representativeness, (normalising) denominator and asymmetric odds.\r\n<strong><em>“Why is there extreme dispersion in outcomes, from similar starting points?... </em></strong><em>Multiplicative probabilities can have an especially severe effect at the opposite end. As an example, Indian companies have had a disastrous experience with overseas acquisitions. Going in, these adventures didn’t seem particularly egregious. However, a whole host of seemingly small differences between acquirer and acquiree – context, people, culture, distance, distribution setup, weaker competitive position, business profile – made a big difference to the final outcome. While each difference, in itself, might have reduced odds of success by a small amount, their multiplicative effect was disastrous. An appreciation of this concept results in paranoia about avoiding ‘zeroes’ anywhere in the chain. Big-bang M&amp;A, high debt or dodgy promoters can nullify a lot of other positives in a business.</em>\r\n<strong><em>What can you infer about normal times from a highly abnormal time?...</em></strong><em>Absolutely nothing! Due to a lack of representativeness. It’s as if there’s no lockdown in my part of the world. Dozens of calls are organized every day to provide running commentary on the red, orange and green of 100s of companies. I don’t know what to make of these. What matters is where things end up well after we’ve settled into (new) normalcy. It’s unclear how a highly abnormal, transient period would be even remotely representative of steady state. More generally, representativeness is a key filter in separating signal from noise. It’s the reason I prefer secondary data over primary research. In many industries, with some effort, secondary data covers the universe and isn’t limited to a biased sample. Further, it’s the outcome of millions of actual customer decisions made with real money. It’s not contrived opinions expressed by a few buggy humans who rarely know their real motivations. In times when reporting is based on moving anecdotes cherry-picked to grab eyeballs, representativeness is the first filter for any incoming data point.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Why are shockingly large numbers mostly meaningless?...</em></strong><em>Without a denominator, there’s no frame of reference. I’ve never figured why buggy humans hate the denominator so much. It practically deserves its own victimhood narrative. It’s not just media saying “Investors lost 1 lakh crore” instead of “Market fell a bit”. Professionals misleadingly claim “This business makes money”, referring to EBITDA rather than return on capital. The most important thing in investing – risk – is cleverly hidden as an innocuous ‘cost of capital’ in, wait for it, the denominator. Those who spend endless hours clicking and dragging the numerator fill out this crucial item as an afterthought, albeit with a few decimal points thrown in. More generally, numbers make more sense on a denominator-adjusted basis. Market share matters more than revenue growth. Ratios convey more than raw financials. Profit figures are to be normalized over a business cycle. Valuations are best viewed in context of long run percentile data. ‘Denominator’ is really a frame of reference rather than a place under a line. Without it, numerators fall somewhere between meaningless and dangerous.”</em>', 'Mathematics of investing and life', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mathematics-of-investing-and-life', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:25:39', '2020-05-18 04:25:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3376', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3377, 1, '2020-05-18 04:25:39', '2020-05-18 04:25:39', 'Nalanda Capital is one of the most successful investment firms that have come up in the last couple of decades and one that has been an inspiration and source of learning for many of us at Marcellus. Anand Sridharan, an investor at Nalanda writes an entertaining yet enlightening <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=d356f14703&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dd356f14703%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG_X0kzEhyNE6H0u3srodtUwWQJtw\">blog</a> on LinkedIn. This one, as the title says, is about the role of math in investing. In our interviews with potential new hires, we find that the most common answer to ‘why investing as a career?’ is ‘I love maths or I am good at maths’ or some variant of that. Anand busts that myth right upfront – <em>“there’s very little math in investing. At best middle-school level, that too state-board”. </em>However, he goes on to highlight some useful math concepts (still middle school level, perhaps high school at best) that help avoid falling into false narratives based on numbers while investing. Anand discusses multiplicative probabilities, decision trees, representativeness, (normalising) denominator and asymmetric odds.\r\n<strong><em>“Why is there extreme dispersion in outcomes, from similar starting points?... </em></strong><em>Multiplicative probabilities can have an especially severe effect at the opposite end. As an example, Indian companies have had a disastrous experience with overseas acquisitions. Going in, these adventures didn’t seem particularly egregious. However, a whole host of seemingly small differences between acquirer and acquiree – context, people, culture, distance, distribution setup, weaker competitive position, business profile – made a big difference to the final outcome. While each difference, in itself, might have reduced odds of success by a small amount, their multiplicative effect was disastrous. An appreciation of this concept results in paranoia about avoiding ‘zeroes’ anywhere in the chain. Big-bang M&amp;A, high debt or dodgy promoters can nullify a lot of other positives in a business.</em>\r\n<strong><em>What can you infer about normal times from a highly abnormal time?...</em></strong><em>Absolutely nothing! Due to a lack of representativeness. It’s as if there’s no lockdown in my part of the world. Dozens of calls are organized every day to provide running commentary on the red, orange and green of 100s of companies. I don’t know what to make of these. What matters is where things end up well after we’ve settled into (new) normalcy. It’s unclear how a highly abnormal, transient period would be even remotely representative of steady state. More generally, representativeness is a key filter in separating signal from noise. It’s the reason I prefer secondary data over primary research. In many industries, with some effort, secondary data covers the universe and isn’t limited to a biased sample. Further, it’s the outcome of millions of actual customer decisions made with real money. It’s not contrived opinions expressed by a few buggy humans who rarely know their real motivations. In times when reporting is based on moving anecdotes cherry-picked to grab eyeballs, representativeness is the first filter for any incoming data point.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Why are shockingly large numbers mostly meaningless?...</em></strong><em>Without a denominator, there’s no frame of reference. I’ve never figured why buggy humans hate the denominator so much. It practically deserves its own victimhood narrative. It’s not just media saying “Investors lost 1 lakh crore” instead of “Market fell a bit”. Professionals misleadingly claim “This business makes money”, referring to EBITDA rather than return on capital. The most important thing in investing – risk – is cleverly hidden as an innocuous ‘cost of capital’ in, wait for it, the denominator. Those who spend endless hours clicking and dragging the numerator fill out this crucial item as an afterthought, albeit with a few decimal points thrown in. More generally, numbers make more sense on a denominator-adjusted basis. Market share matters more than revenue growth. Ratios convey more than raw financials. Profit figures are to be normalized over a business cycle. Valuations are best viewed in context of long run percentile data. ‘Denominator’ is really a frame of reference rather than a place under a line. Without it, numerators fall somewhere between meaningless and dangerous.”</em>', 'Mathematics of investing and life', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3376-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:25:39', '2020-05-18 04:25:39', '', 3376, 'https://marcellus.in/3376-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3378, 1, '2020-05-17 04:25:56', '2020-05-17 04:25:56', 'Despite being a political appointment, the Reserve Bank of India has been blessed with some illustrious Governors at the helm. Dr Duvvuri Subbarao was one of them. In this oped for the Indian Express, he does a compare and contrast with the current Covid driven financial crisis to the subprime mortgage led Global financial crisis of 2008. Dr Subbarao would surely know a thing or two about crises, what with his remarkable stint as the Governor beginning and ending in crises. He took charge of the RBI literally a week before Lehman went bust and his tenure ended right at the peak of Bernanke’s taper tantrums of 2013.\r\nHe highlights four differences between the current crisis (he calls it the CFC) and the 2008 GFC. First, the source of the crisis – GFC had its origins in the financial system spreading to the real economy whilst CFC has it the other way round. <em>“This route of transmission — financial to the real economy or vice versa — has implications for crisis resolution. The central challenge in the resolution of the GFC was to restore faith in the financial system, which meant rescue and rehabilitation of banks and other financial institutions. Once that task in the financial sector was accomplished, repair of the real economy fell in place. Demand came back, supply resumed and growth picked up.</em>\r\n<em>In contrast, the central challenge in the resolution of the CFC is to beat the pandemic, and that solution has to come from science. Only when there is public confidence that the incidence of the pandemic has been brought down to a low-level equilibrium, will there be a resolution in both the real and financial economies. We are, of course, seeing that even during this crisis, just like in 2008, governments are coming out with fiscal stimulus packages and central banks with monetary stimulus packages. But these are not solutions to the pandemic; they are just holding operations till the central problem is resolved.”</em>\r\nSecond, whilst the GFC affected global financial systems, fixing the US financial system was sufficient to bring stability across the world. However, for the CFC, every country needs to be Covid free for the world to be safe. <em>“Every country needs to control the pandemic within its borders. But that is not sufficient because the virus can hit back from across the border. In other words, rich countries are not safe until poor countries are safe too. And no country is safe until every country is safe.”</em>\r\nThird, during the GFC, all measures to tackle the crisis were in sync with each other – whether monetary or fiscal. However, the current crisis is seeing a painful tradeoff between lives and livelihood. The lockdown implemented to flatten the curve is clearly pulling down the economy just as the stimulus measures intend to keep the economy afloat in the interim. <em>“…in managing the challenge of the CFC, what we are seeing is tension between the various sets of policy actions. The effort to contain the pandemic is exacerbating the challenges in both the real economy and the financial sector. The more stringent the lockdown to save lives, the more extensive the loss of livelihoods. Managing this tension is by far the biggest dilemma for governments battling the crisis.”</em>\r\nFourth involves the role of China – <em>“The global financial crisis, although it was called “global” did not affect all countries equally and that accounts for the fourth difference between 2008 and now. China was less affected even as all rich countries were in a financial meltdown. In fact, one of the less acknowledged facts of the 2008 crisis is that it was the stimulus provided by China that kept the global economy afloat. In contrast, now all rich and big economies are weighed down by the virus, and there is not a single large economy to keep the rest of the world afloat. If pandemics are going to be more frequent, as is now suspected, it is all the more important that there is a more enforceable global protocol on early warning and information sharing.</em>\r\n<em>For all their differences, the GFC and CFC are similar in one respect — they both teach us life-enhancing lessons. The GFC forcefully reminded us that greed and avarice will only bring tears in the end. The CFC is teaching us that the force of nature is bigger than the combined force of our science and technology. Hubris is wrong.”</em>', 'Covid is teaching us that force of nature is bigger than combined force of science and technology', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'covid-is-teaching-us-that-force-of-nature-is-bigger-than-combined-force-of-science-and-technology', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:28:28', '2020-05-18 04:28:28', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3378', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3379, 1, '2020-05-18 04:28:28', '2020-05-18 04:28:28', 'Despite being a political appointment, the Reserve Bank of India has been blessed with some illustrious Governors at the helm. Dr Duvvuri Subbarao was one of them. In this oped for the Indian Express, he does a compare and contrast with the current Covid driven financial crisis to the subprime mortgage led Global financial crisis of 2008. Dr Subbarao would surely know a thing or two about crises, what with his remarkable stint as the Governor beginning and ending in crises. He took charge of the RBI literally a week before Lehman went bust and his tenure ended right at the peak of Bernanke’s taper tantrums of 2013.\r\nHe highlights four differences between the current crisis (he calls it the CFC) and the 2008 GFC. First, the source of the crisis – GFC had its origins in the financial system spreading to the real economy whilst CFC has it the other way round. <em>“This route of transmission — financial to the real economy or vice versa — has implications for crisis resolution. The central challenge in the resolution of the GFC was to restore faith in the financial system, which meant rescue and rehabilitation of banks and other financial institutions. Once that task in the financial sector was accomplished, repair of the real economy fell in place. Demand came back, supply resumed and growth picked up.</em>\r\n<em>In contrast, the central challenge in the resolution of the CFC is to beat the pandemic, and that solution has to come from science. Only when there is public confidence that the incidence of the pandemic has been brought down to a low-level equilibrium, will there be a resolution in both the real and financial economies. We are, of course, seeing that even during this crisis, just like in 2008, governments are coming out with fiscal stimulus packages and central banks with monetary stimulus packages. But these are not solutions to the pandemic; they are just holding operations till the central problem is resolved.”</em>\r\nSecond, whilst the GFC affected global financial systems, fixing the US financial system was sufficient to bring stability across the world. However, for the CFC, every country needs to be Covid free for the world to be safe. <em>“Every country needs to control the pandemic within its borders. But that is not sufficient because the virus can hit back from across the border. In other words, rich countries are not safe until poor countries are safe too. And no country is safe until every country is safe.”</em>\r\nThird, during the GFC, all measures to tackle the crisis were in sync with each other – whether monetary or fiscal. However, the current crisis is seeing a painful tradeoff between lives and livelihood. The lockdown implemented to flatten the curve is clearly pulling down the economy just as the stimulus measures intend to keep the economy afloat in the interim. <em>“…in managing the challenge of the CFC, what we are seeing is tension between the various sets of policy actions. The effort to contain the pandemic is exacerbating the challenges in both the real economy and the financial sector. The more stringent the lockdown to save lives, the more extensive the loss of livelihoods. Managing this tension is by far the biggest dilemma for governments battling the crisis.”</em>\r\nFourth involves the role of China – <em>“The global financial crisis, although it was called “global” did not affect all countries equally and that accounts for the fourth difference between 2008 and now. China was less affected even as all rich countries were in a financial meltdown. In fact, one of the less acknowledged facts of the 2008 crisis is that it was the stimulus provided by China that kept the global economy afloat. In contrast, now all rich and big economies are weighed down by the virus, and there is not a single large economy to keep the rest of the world afloat. If pandemics are going to be more frequent, as is now suspected, it is all the more important that there is a more enforceable global protocol on early warning and information sharing.</em>\r\n<em>For all their differences, the GFC and CFC are similar in one respect — they both teach us life-enhancing lessons. The GFC forcefully reminded us that greed and avarice will only bring tears in the end. The CFC is teaching us that the force of nature is bigger than the combined force of our science and technology. Hubris is wrong.”</em>', 'Covid is teaching us that force of nature is bigger than combined force of science and technology', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3378-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:28:28', '2020-05-18 04:28:28', '', 3378, 'https://marcellus.in/3378-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3380, 1, '2020-05-18 04:36:41', '2020-05-18 04:36:41', 'The proliferation of the blog scene has thrown several interesting writers but few can combine original thought and content with an equally strong ability to articulate in prose. David Perell is one of them. Indeed, David takes an online <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0c13c3b3ec&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0c13c3b3ec%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHwrxWBSHsxwpUNU7gw0flkazW_lQ\">course</a> on writing. In this passionate blog on how our rigid education systems have created unhappy kids who grow up to become ‘successful’ yet frustrated adults. The disciplined environment of schools takes away the freewill of people which causes this lack of fulfilment. Indeed, not just in education, even in sport, the ability to exercise one’s ‘choice’ or lack thereof can make a big difference as he highlights the example of the tennis legend – Andre Agassi. Agassi, who almost took to drugs to cope with the pressure from his father to succeed in tennis, turned around when he eventually ‘chose’ tennis.\r\n<em>“Boomers grew up in a credentialed world where people were defined by the school on their college diploma. Students benefited from college not because of the education they received, but because of sexy diplomas and tight personal networks….Meanwhile, the average college diploma isn’t the signal of prestige it once was. The number of Americans with a college degree has risen by more than 300% since 1970, leading to credential inflation where people need more and more education just to stay in place..</em>\r\n<em>More and more parents are encouraging more and more children to fight zero-sum battles like the college admissions process. This childhood rat race is packaged as ambitious, even though it actually rests behind a facade of sheep-like, anxiety-creating complacency.</em>\r\n<em>As Ivan Illich wrote in Deschooling Society: “The pupil is thereby ‘schooled’ to confuse teaching with learning, grade advancement with education, a diploma with competence, and fluency with the ability to say something new.” My grade school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for high school, my high school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for college, and my college teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for the professional world. But it was a lie. As I sat in class, I felt like a domesticated animal, training to serve the needs of institutions instead of myself.</em>\r\n<em>Kids who don’t conform to the narrow demands of the education system are diagnosed with ADHD and prescribed addictive psychoactive drugs. As Peter Gray, the author of Free to Learn, has observed, these drugs are designed to suppress a child’s instincts so they can sit down, shut up, and slave through busywork</em>\r\n<em>Tragically, the growth in ADHD prescriptions has accelerated since the turn of the century. In an article called “The Drugging of the American Boy,” Ryan D’Agostino argues that many of these diagnoses are false. Today, 6.4 million children between the ages of 4-17 have been diagnosed with ADHD. Almost 20 percent of all American boys will now be diagnosed with ADHD by high school, a 37 percent increase since 2003. Instead of building a system that respects the biology of kids, we are destroying childhood — one synthetic pill at a time.</em>\r\n<em>….New York, where I live, is defined by its live-for-the-weekend culture. Young professionals who move to New York have dreams of building fame, wealth, or power by climbing the corporate ladder. The most talented university graduates disproportionately fall into sectors like law, investment banking, and management consulting. To numb the pain of sitting at a desk for 50-80 hours per week and the Hunger Games levels of competition for a small number of competitive positions, New York’s social scene revolves around a culture of binge drinking. y friend said, “My parents tried so hard to make me successful but never stopped to ask if I was enjoying myself. They are proud of what I’m doing, and since I work for an impressive company, they just assume I’m happy.”</em>\r\n<em>….Success shouldn’t be synonymous with how good you are at forcing yourself to do what you don’t want to do. We should rebel against a world that rewards mechanical levels of specialization. In the will to succeed, we subject ourselves to toxic and health-destroying work environments. Instead of questioning our habits, we counterbalance the pain of work with a ritual of reckless bar crawls. Instead of conforming the system to human nature, we conform human nature to the system.</em>\r\n<em>When we discipline people against their will, we create negative repercussions….Suffocating a person’s free will for too long will result in harmful second-order effects for individuals and society at-large. This is the price of discipline.”</em>', 'The Price of Discipline', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3372-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:36:41', '2020-05-18 04:36:41', '', 3372, 'https://marcellus.in/3372-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3381, 1, '2020-05-18 04:36:45', '2020-05-18 04:36:45', 'The proliferation of the blog scene has thrown several interesting writers but few can combine original thought and content with an equally strong ability to articulate in prose. David Perell is one of them. Indeed, David takes an online <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=0c13c3b3ec&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D0c13c3b3ec%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1589860496455000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHwrxWBSHsxwpUNU7gw0flkazW_lQ\">course</a> on writing. In this passionate blog on how our rigid education systems have created unhappy kids who grow up to become ‘successful’ yet frustrated adults. The disciplined environment of schools takes away the freewill of people which causes this lack of fulfilment. Indeed, not just in education, even in sport, the ability to exercise one’s ‘choice’ or lack thereof can make a big difference as he highlights the example of the tennis legend – Andre Agassi. Agassi, who almost took to drugs to cope with the pressure from his father to succeed in tennis, turned around when he eventually ‘chose’ tennis.\n<em>“Boomers grew up in a credentialed world where people were defined by the school on their college diploma. Students benefited from college not because of the education they received, but because of sexy diplomas and tight personal networks….Meanwhile, the average college diploma isn’t the signal of prestige it once was. The number of Americans with a college degree has risen by more than 300% since 1970, leading to credential inflation where people need more and more education just to stay in place..</em>\n<em>More and more parents are encouraging more and more children to fight zero-sum battles like the college admissions process. This childhood rat race is packaged as ambitious, even though it actually rests behind a facade of sheep-like, anxiety-creating complacency.</em>\n<em>As Ivan Illich wrote in Deschooling Society: “The pupil is thereby ‘schooled’ to confuse teaching with learning, grade advancement with education, a diploma with competence, and fluency with the ability to say something new.” My grade school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for high school, my high school teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for college, and my college teachers said the tough standards would prepare me for the professional world. But it was a lie. As I sat in class, I felt like a domesticated animal, training to serve the needs of institutions instead of myself.</em>\n<em>Kids who don’t conform to the narrow demands of the education system are diagnosed with ADHD and prescribed addictive psychoactive drugs. As Peter Gray, the author of Free to Learn, has observed, these drugs are designed to suppress a child’s instincts so they can sit down, shut up, and slave through busywork</em>\n<em>Tragically, the growth in ADHD prescriptions has accelerated since the turn of the century. In an article called “The Drugging of the American Boy,” Ryan D’Agostino argues that many of these diagnoses are false. Today, 6.4 million children between the ages of 4-17 have been diagnosed with ADHD. Almost 20 percent of all American boys will now be diagnosed with ADHD by high school, a 37 percent increase since 2003. Instead of building a system that respects the biology of kids, we are destroying childhood — one synthetic pill at a time.</em>\n<em>….New York, where I live, is defined by its live-for-the-weekend culture. Young professionals who move to New York have dreams of building fame, wealth, or power by climbing the corporate ladder. The most talented university graduates disproportionately fall into sectors like law, investment banking, and management consulting. To numb the pain of sitting at a desk for 50-80 hours per week and the Hunger Games levels of competition for a small number of competitive positions, New York’s social scene revolves around a culture of binge drinking. y friend said, “My parents tried so hard to make me successful but never stopped to ask if I was enjoying myself. They are proud of what I’m doing, and since I work for an impressive company, they just assume I’m happy.”</em>\n<em>….Success shouldn’t be synonymous with how good you are at forcing yourself to do what you don’t want to do. We should rebel against a world that rewards mechanical levels of specialization. In the will to succeed, we subject ourselves to toxic and health-destroying work environments. Instead of questioning our habits, we counterbalance the pain of work with a ritual of reckless bar crawls. Instead of conforming the system to human nature, we conform human nature to the system.</em>\n<em>When we discipline people against their will, we create negative repercussions….Suffocating a person’s free will for too long will result in harmful second-order effects for individuals and society at-large. This is the price of discipline.”</em>', 'The Price of Discipline', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3372-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-05-18 04:36:45', '2020-05-18 04:36:45', '', 3372, 'https://marcellus.in/3372-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3394, 1, '2020-05-27 11:06:28', '2020-05-27 11:06:28', '<strong>In part I of this series, we looked at how Uday Kotak has successfully steered the Kotak group over the past 35 years <em>(read Part – I </em></strong><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=02b0521bfe&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D02b0521bfe%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590661302010000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH49iixAEJci88ZDV3K8O0NUSQxBA\"><strong><em>here</em></strong></a><strong><em>)</em>. In this piece we try and delve deeper into the illustrious career of another successful Gujarati banker – Deepak Parekh. We explore the two vital facets of institution building that Deepak Parekh has mastered: (i) allocating financial capital; and (ii) allocating human capital. Under his leadership, the HDFC group has become India’s most successful financial services conglomerate by dominating virtually every segment that it has ventured into since its inception in 1977.</strong>\r\n\r\n<em>“Humble, unassuming, and often frugal, these \"outsiders\" shied away from the hottest new management trends. Instead, they share specific traits that put them and the companies they lead on winning trajectories: a laser-sharp focus on per share value as opposed to earnings or sales growth; an exceptional talent for allocating capital and human resources; and the belief that cash flow, not reported earnings, determines a company\'s long-term value<strong>” – William Thorndike </strong>in ‘The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success’, (2012).</em>\r\n\r\nNot only were Kotak and HDFC founded a few years apart, they have, by and large, followed a similar strategy of starting out as non-bank lenders, and over time establishing businesses across banking, broking, investment banking, general insurance, life insurance, and asset management. The sheer dominance of the HDFC group is underscored by the fact that India’s largest mortgage lender, private bank, asset management company, and private life insurer are all HDFC group companies. Having been at the helm of affairs of India’s leading financial services conglomerate for over 30 years, Deepak Parekh is a personification of a consistent compounder.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3395 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/unnamed1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"825\" height=\"333\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Deepak Parekh: The Insider Outsider</u></strong>\r\n\r\nBanking runs deep in Deepak Parekh’s blood – his grandfather was the first employee of Central Bank of India; his father was the deputy managing director of Central Bank and his uncle, the legendary Hasmukhbhai Parekh, fondly known as HTP was the Chairman of ICICI before he founded HDFC Limited in 1977 with an initial share capital of Rs. 100 million. While HT Parekh was toying with the idea of forming a housing finance company after retiring from ICICI as at the age of 65, a young Deepak Parekh was working at Chase Manhattan as its assistant representative for South Asia. It took some convincing, but HT Parekh managed to persuade his nephew Deepak to join HDFC Ltd at a 50% lower salary. Thus, Deepak Parekh joined HDFC Ltd. as a Deputy General Manager in 1978, a year after HDFC Ltd. was formed.\r\n\r\nHousing finance was an alien concept for Indians in the 1970s; lending directly to middle class Indian households was looked upon with great scepticism. As a result, far from having a competitor, in the initial years HDFC Ltd. did not even have a regulator. Eventually, in 1988, HDFC Ltd. itself incorporated India’s next three housing finance companies – Gujarat Rural Housing Finance Corporation (Gruh Finance), Housing Promotion and Finance Corporation (promoted with SBI and what is now SBI Home Finance) and Can Fin Homes (promoted with UTI and Canara Bank). The scepticism around HDFC Ltd. was such that when Deepak Parekh went to meet the Chairman of UTI to seek an investment in HDFC Ltd’s IPO, his request was turned down on the grounds that retail lending was too risky a business and that UTI, which was then the only equity mutual fund in India, would therefore not be able to invest in the IPO. As a result, when HDFC Ltd. went public in its first year of its incorporation, its IPO flopped, and the stock traded at a 20% discount to its issue price on the day it got listed. Ironically, 5 years later, looking at HDFC’s success in mortgage lending, UTI became the company’s largest shareholder.\r\n\r\nBy the late 1980s, HDFC Ltd. had firmly established its credibility not only in India but also globally, it was successfully raising long term funding from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). By 1985, Deepak Parekh had risen to the post of Managing Director and he became the executive Chairman of HDFC Ltd. in 1993. As HDFC Ltd’s core mortgage business was flourishing with little competition, Deepak Parekh shifted his focus towards capitalising on the HDFC brand name by assuming a more strategic role with a focus on: (i) allocating financial capital; and (ii) allocating human capital across the HDFC Group. As we will see in the coming section, it is in this role that he has created maximum value for HDFC group shareholders.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Allocating financial capital to build the HDFC empire</u>:</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><em>Diversifying across the Financial Services landscape:</em></strong> HDFC Ltd. used its experience of pioneering the mortgage finance business and the credibility of the HDFC brand to establish businesses across India’s Financial Services landscape as soon as regulators allowed private players to participate in each sector. This has ensured that the HDFC group has been well placed to make the most of out of every chapter of India’s financialization story. For example, the mortgage business has become extremely competitive over the years resulting in the sector earning a lower return on equity than what possible earlier but because HDFC Ltd. was astute enough to create market leading franchises across banking, life insurance and asset management, it has been able to consistently generate shareholder returns through these businesses.\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Banking:</strong> In 1993, banking was opened to the private sector with a capital requirement of Rs. 100 crores. At that time HDFC’s net-worth was Rs. 300 crores but Deepak Parekh was convinced that the time was right for HDFC to move away from being a single product company. However, he faced a setback when the Board of HDFC Ltd. rejected his idea. The Board’s argument was that HDFC Ltd. had no experience in banking and there was no need to venture into banking when the core business was doing so well. It was after a lot of convincing that the Board relented. Eventually it was agreed that external talent had to be hired if the group does get a banking license. Therefore, in some ways HDFC Bank owes its existence to Deepak Parekh’s conviction and vision.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Life insurance</strong>: The insurance sector was opened to private players much later in the early 2000s. HDFC Ltd. found a like-minded partner in Standard Life for its life insurance and asset management businesses. It was Deepak Parekh’s longstanding personal relationship with Gerry Grimstone, the Chairman of Standard Life, that led to not one but two joint ventures between the two companies. Despite being a large global life insurer, Standard Life’s investment in HDFC Life has been highly rewarding for the former’s shareholders – Standard Life’s stake in HDFC Life is currently valued at Rs. 120 bn, amounting to 27% of Standard Life Aberdeen’s market cap.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>General insurance</strong>: HDFC Ltd. had initially entered into a joint venture with Chubb, a large Property &amp; Casualty insurer from the US, in 2002 but since Chubb believed India to be a high-risk country, it was too rigid with its underwriting. So, while other general insurers were growing at 30-40% in the nascent market, HDFC was not growing at all. Facing a JV failure for the first time, HDFC decided to buy out Chubb’s stake in 2007 which was then sold to Ergo, Munich Re’s insurance arm. HDFC Ergo is currently India’s 3<sup>rd</sup> largest private general insurer.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Asset management</strong>: Unlike other financial sectors where HDFC was among the first entrants when the sector opened up, it was a late entrant in the asset management space. The Asset Management Company (AMC) business opened up in 1993 but HDFC AMC was setup only in 2000. Even though it was a late entrant, it is currently India’s largest AMC in terms of AUM.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong><em>HDFC group’s in-house investment banker</em></strong>: Deepak Parekh had spent the initial years of his career as an investment banker, plying his trade across New York, Singapore and Hong Kong. It would be an understatement to say that he has put his early years of investment banking experience to good use for the HDFC group. Over the past 43 years with HDFC Ltd., he has taken 5 companies public and by our count, completed at least 7 M&amp;A deals.\r\n\r\nUnlike most listed companies where a large number of mergers, acquisitions, spin offs etc. destroy minority shareholder value, the HDFC group under Deepak Parekh’s leadership has consistently been able to create wealth for minority shareholders through these transactions – whether it be whilst acquiring companies or whilst selling them (as we saw in 2019 when HDFC Ltd sold its stake in Gruh Finance at 14 times price to book). The failure of HDFC Ltd.’s IPO early on in Deepak Parekh’s career taught him to be fair to retail shareholders. For instance, during HDFC Bank’s IPO in 1995 when bankers wanted to price the issue at a premium to its book value, Deepak Parekh said “leave some money on the table. Investors will reward you in the future for doing so”, as a result HDFC Bank shares were priced at par at Rs. 10 and the issue was subscribed 55 times.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Allocating human capital to run the HDFC empire effectively:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nEven though the HDFC brand enjoyed credibility in the financial system as well as amongst retail depositors and investors, without capable leaders at the helm of each business, the HDFC group could not have replicated the success it enjoyed in the mortgage finance business. Whether it be convincing Aditya Puri to leave a plush Citibank job in Malaysia or handpicking Amitabh Chaudhary to head HDFC Life even though he had no prior experience in the insurance sector, Deepak Parekh’s knack of picking the right people for the right job has proven to be of immense value for HDFC group shareholders.\r\n\r\nDrawing upon his vast network and experience, over the years Deepak Parekh has become a close confidante of other promoters who are looking to hire people for the top managerial posts. Deepak Parekh made a tough job sound easy when he was quoted as saying <em>“I have suggested dozens of CEOs for several organisations at various points of time. It doesn’t take days and hours of interviews. For me, 10 minutes is enough to assess if the candidate is right for the job.”</em>\r\n<strong><u>Investment implications:</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWilliam Thorndike’s outstanding book on the art of capital allocation, ‘The Outsiders’, not only explains why the promoter’s main job is capital allocation, it also provides a simple framework to define a CEO’s success in the long run – “<em>It’s the increase in a company’s per share value, not growth in sales or earnings or employees, that offers the ultimate barometer of a CEO’s greatness</em>”. The increase in per share value of Kotak Mahindra Bank as on 15<sup>th</sup> May, 2020 since its listing in 1995 has been 22% vs. an increase of 10% in the Nifty. Similarly, the increase in per share value of HDFC Ltd. since 1993 i.e. the year in which Deepak Parekh became Chairman has been 23% vs. an increase of 11% in the Nifty. This suggests that Deepak Parekh and Uday Kotak have been enormously successful CEOs.\r\n\r\nThrough their consistent compounding, Deepak Parekh and Uday Kotak have reinforced that the prerequisites of wealth creation in India are: (i) maintaining a high standard of corporate governance; (ii) prudently allocating capital; and (iii) finding, and retaining, outstanding leaders. Although these three tasks might intuitively seem to be simple, over 90% of India’s listed companies do not clear Marcellus’ proprietary accounting and capital allocation filters leaving us with a small universe of investable stocks. It is no surprise that the HDFC group companies and Kotak Mahindra Bank rate highly on our proprietary accounting and capital allocation models. As a result, the HDFC group companies and Kotak Mahindra Bank now cumulatively account for 15% of the market cap of India’s 50 largest companies (by market cap) and are likely to dominate India’s financial ecosystem for years to come.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: HDFC Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are a part of most of Marcellus’ portfolios\r\n\r\n<em>Tej Shah is a portfolio counsellor at Marcellus Investment Managers</em>', 'India’s Kings of Capital – Part II: Deepak Parekh', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'indias-kings-of-capital-part-ii-deepak-parekh', '', '', '2020-05-27 11:06:28', '2020-05-27 11:06:28', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3394', 0, 'blogs', '', 0);
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(3397, 1, '2020-06-01 06:14:56', '2020-06-01 06:14:56', '<strong>Most firms hike product prices to offset the impact of inflation in raw material costs and operating expenses. However, several firms in Marcellus’ CCP Portfolio – e.g. Asian Paints, Relaxo Footwears, Abbott India, Dr. Lal Pathlabs – have historically avoided hiking product prices meaningfully. These companies focus on deriving incremental operating efficiencies, thereby negating the need to hike product prices. They like to focus on volume growth whilst leaving no room for competition to disrupt their dominance via price wars. They invest heavily in technology, systems and processes, empowerment of high-quality talent and employee culture to help scale up their business and deepen their competitive advantages. In this newsletter we have provided a framework for assessing price hikes (or lack of price hikes) through the lens of pricing power.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31<sup>st</sup> May 2020</strong>\r\n\r\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3515 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccp1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"732\" height=\"430\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3398 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/june1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"409\" /><strong>The relationship between price hikes and pricing power</strong>\r\n\r\nMost firms hike product prices to offset the impact of inflation in raw material costs and operating expenses. Yet, there are other firms which curtail product price hikes for long periods of time. Let us look at a few examples of dominant companies which have avoided price hikes historically:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Bharti Airtel</strong>: Over the period FY07-FY17 (i.e. before Reliance Jio), Bharti Airtel retained its market leadership with a market share of ~23%. Its ARPUs (Average Revenue Per Unit customer) <strong><em>declined</em></strong> at a CAGR of -8% over these 10 years.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Interglobe Aviation</strong>: In the airlines sector, Interglobe Aviation (Indigo Airlines) has grown its market share over the last decade from ~15% in FY10 to ~50% in FY20 with its ‘revenue per passenger’ growing at only 1% CAGR over FY10-20.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Asian Paints</strong>: Asian Paints has dominated the decorative paints industry for several decades with its current market share being 50%. The firm has hiked its product prices on a like for like basis by a CAGR of less than 3% over the past two decades.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong> Lal Pathlabs</strong>: Dr. Lal Pathlabs is the biggest player in India’s pathology diagnostics industry. The firm has not hiked prices of its diagnostic tests for over four years now.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\nThe common factor across these four examples is clear – these firms have not hiked product prices for several years, despite inflation in various costs incurred by them over the same time frame. However, what is not so clear is the difference in their pricing power. On the one hand, Dr. Lal Pathlabs and Asian Paints have delivered ROCEs (Returns on Capital Employed) in excess of 25% for more than a decade with earnings growth above 20% CAGR – a sign of immense pricing power. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel has delivered ROCEs consistently below 15% with non-existent earnings growth over FY07-17 – a sign of weak pricing power. Let us now dig deeper into the relationship between lack of price hikes and pricing power.\r\n\r\n<strong>What is pricing power? </strong>The standard definition of high pricing power is the ability of a firm to hike product prices without witnessing attrition in its customer base. However, since most business battles are fought around price cuts, we believe the complete definition of pricing power should be as follows:<em> If an incumbent firm offers a product to its customers at a certain price (say Rs 100), and a new competitor decides to offer a similar product to the same customers at a lower price (say Rs 70) – then can the incumbent retain its Rs 100 product price and also retain its market share? Or will the incumbent need to cut its product prices to defend its dominance? If it is the former, then the incumbent has high pricing power, otherwise not.</em>\r\n\r\nMost sectors are highly competitive, and most firms have weak pricing power. For instance, in the airlines sector, the bulk of airline passengers make their choices based on ticket pricing – cheapest wins. Likewise, changing a telecom provider in India has historically been decided by customers predominantly on the back of price – cheapest amongst the top 3-4 players has always won market share from others. For such companies it is easy to understand why they have avoided price hikes for several years – price wars and price led competition doesn’t allow an incumbent leaders with low pricing power to retain their market share whilst also hiking their product prices.\r\n\r\n<strong>Why do firms with incredibly high pricing power choose to avoid price hikes?</strong>\r\n\r\nOur understanding of great Indian firms with high pricing power suggests that typically, their competitive advantages are related to one or more of the following factors - product differentiation, supply chain efficiencies, brand, superior technology, greater understanding of the customer, regulatory environment, handling of raw materials, or other such factors. However, to sustain, strengthen and scale up these competitive advantages, most such great firms also have some common underlying ingredients which define their DNA. These ingredients usually include a sharp focus on systems and processes, operational efficiencies, high quality board of directors, empowerment of professionals, tech investments, and <strong>a propensity to avoid price hikes as much as possible</strong>. Lack of price hikes helps these great firms further suffocate their competitors and deepen their own competitive advantages due to a combination of the following factors:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The ‘volume-game’: </strong>One of the biggest opportunities available for a business in India is around scale - even in some of the most basic utility oriented categories like footwear and undergarments, there is a long runway of growth available before the category growth stagnates. Curtailed price hikes help make products of a company more affordable over time and hence accelerate penetration of the product across geographies (tier 3 / 4 / 5 cities or rural India) and across socio-economic strata. Scaling up such a business through volume-growth rather than through price hikes, increases the complexity of the operation in areas like supply chain, manufacturing, manpower management, etc. These complexities, if addressed through systems / processes / institutionalized operational execution etc, become an added source of competitive advantage for such firms. One of the best examples of this in our portfolio is Relaxo Footwears which manufactures and sells more than 20 crore pairs of footwear per year (5.5 lakhs pairs per day!) at an average price of Rs 130 per pair. Despite footwear being one of the most labour intensive manufacturing processes, Relaxo employs its entire labour workforce (rather than using contract labour) and runs an in-house manufacturing process (rather than outsourcing). The firm also distributes its products through distributors rather than wholesalers. A recent press article highlighted (<a href=\"https://www.forbesindia.com/article/8th-anniversary-special/from-just-a-single-product-in-1976-relaxo-has-come-a-long-way/46965/1\">click here</a>) – <em>“Within the company there was a view that if we increased volumes, profits would come automatically. Accenture taught us that profitable growth has to be an end in itself,” says Ritesh Dua. He cites the example of its Sparx range of footwear, which was struggling to grow. The advice given to the company was that prices needed to be cut by 20 percent, so they went about reengineering the product and the way it was manufactured. The re-launched Sparx has been a huge success.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Focus on incremental operating efficiencies: </strong>Such firms consistently derive incremental operating efficiencies through investments in technology, systems and processes or economies of scale. These operating efficiencies help offset the adverse effect of inflation in raw material and operating cost, and hence negate the basic need to hike product prices. If competitors cannot match the quantum of such incremental operating efficiencies, they get suffocated because of lack of price hikes from the market leading competitor. Asian Paints is a great example of this given its consistent improvements in manufacturing processes, raw material vendor management, backward integration and an efficient supply chain execution which have helped it maintain strong margins and ROCEs with minimal product price hikes of 2%-3% CAGR (see our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/enduring-greatness-in-a-disrupted-world/\">1<sup>st</sup> May 2020 newsletter</a> for a case study on Asian Paints).</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Ability to absorb regulatory changes like price-controls</strong>: There are several industries like pharma and healthcare (diagnostics) where product prices are capped by regulatory intervention. Such moves by regulators destroy the profitability of many of the players in these sectors. Great companies in such sectors use such regulatory headwinds to their advantage by scaling up volumes at lower prices to deliver a highly profitable and sustainable solution which is difficult for competitors to replicate. One such example from our CCP portfolio is of Abbott India with its product Thyronorm.</li>\r\n 	<li>In FY2010, GSK’s Eltroxin was the market leading drug for treating hypothyroidism with ~ 50% market share and Abbott’s Thyronorm had about 40% market share. The market size was around US$7 mn. Between 2011 &amp; 2014, Government of India introduced National List of Essential Medicines, 2011 and Drug Pricing Control Order 2013. Both these regulations led to 20-25% decrease in the selling price of Eltroxin and Thyronorm. Following this, GSK slowed down it investments behind the brand Eltroxin due to the reduced margins available on this product. Abbott India on the other hand, doubled down on increasing market share of Thyronorm. In 2011, it launched its Think Thyroid Think Life Campaign in association with Indian Thyroid Society under which it worked on increasing awareness about Thyroid disorders, conducted over 5,600 camps for thyroid screening, created brand team to increase the knowledge base of primary physicians and gynaecologists, conducted academic programs – ‘thyroid update’ which covered 4,000 doctors. It also created a sales team, known as the “Thyroid Activation Team,” worked with healthcare professionals in rural communities throughout India to test women for hypothyroidism. When the disease was detected, the patient was told how Thyronorm would manage their symptoms and was directed to the local pharmacy to obtain the drug. The endorsement by healthcare professionals, coupled with Thyronorm’s low price, reduced the likelihood that the patient would seek alternative treatments. In addition, Abbott India differentiated Thyronorm by creating combination drugs that added vitamins or supplements, for example, Thyronorm Plus Iodine or Thyronorm with calcium. These versions of Thyronorm addressed deficiencies that often occurred in women with hypothyroidism (source: Kellogg School of Management case study). As a result of its focus on Thyronorm brand, Abbott is the market leader in hypothyroidism segment with market share of ~ 52% (FY2019) when the market size has increased to ~US$ 99 mn. Thyronorm’s sales have grown at 33% CAGR over the past 10 years (FY10-FY20). GSK’s Eltroxin’s market share is down to only 27% now.</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Ability to remain unaffected by price wars</strong>: From 2016 to 2018, Thyrocare triggered price war by offering diagnostic tests at 30-50% cheaper price compared to those of incumbent leaders like Dr. Lal Pathlabs. Similarly, paint companies like Jotun (Norway’s largest paint player) over the last 10 years, and Sherwin Williams (world’s largest paint player) over 2006-2011 have offered dealer margins substantially more attractive than what Asian Paints offers. An incumbent leader can remain unaffected by such price wars only if the combination of robust competitive advantages and historically curtailed price hikes results in: a) customers continuing to stick to the incumbent leader despite cheaper offerings from a new competitor; and b) price wars being unaffordable for new competitors. For instance, the velocity of Asian Paints’ supply chain ensures that most paint dealers in the country get more than 3 deliveries each day across several thousand SKUs in a voluminous product. This is central to the firm’s competitive advantage and a higher dealer margin or lower priced product offered by Asian Paints’ competitors did not make it easy for dealers or painters to prefer competitors’ products over Asian Paints’ products.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\r\n\r\nThe relationship between ‘price hikes’ and ‘pricing power’ can be summarized through a 2 x 2 matrix shown in the exhibit below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3516 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccp2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"499\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3399 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Capturejune2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"712\" height=\"453\" />Firms in quadrant 1 (top left) are worst placed on this exhibit. These companies have low pricing power and that forces them to sacrifice profitability in the face of intense price-led competition. They could be price followers and one of their competitors sits in quadrant 2 with high pricing power who keeps suffocating the weaker players by limiting product price hikes (e.g. most smaller competitors of Relaxo Footwears or Asian Paints). Or it could be an industry where even firms with dominant market share do not have enough pricing power and hence the only way for the market leader to avoid losing market share is to avoid price hikes (e.g. telecom or airline industry in India over the past two decades).\r\n\r\nFirms in quadrant 2 (top right) are best placed on this exhibit. Several of our portfolio companies fall in this quadrant. They are market leaders (or on the way to become market leaders) with high pricing power backed by sustainable competitive advantages. These firms sell small ticket day to day essential products and have a habit of avoiding price hikes whilst ensuring that their ROCEs (margins as well as asset turns) are supported by incremental operating efficiencies. They like to focus on growing their businesses through volume growth whilst leaving no room for competition to disrupt their dominance via price wars. They invest heavily in technology, systems and processes, empowerment of high-quality talent and employee culture to help scale up their business and deepen their competitive advantages.\r\n\r\nFirms in quadrant 3 (bottom right) are likely to have reduced <em>sustainability</em> of their competitive advantages compared to firms in quadrant 2. If these firms in quadrant 3 are selling day to day essential products consumed by the masses, their approach towards price hikes could eventually dilute their pricing power. Their products will either become unaffordable and hence unsuccessful in scaling up, or else once scaled up, they will attract competition which might disrupt their ROCEs by offering lower price points on similar products. However, there are some exceptions to this hypothesis in quadrant 3. Firms which have built a rare strategic asset (e.g. a patented product) which makes the demand for their products price-inelastic, might be able to sustain their pricing power despite hiking product prices for long periods of time.\r\n\r\nFirms in quadrant 4 will either quickly move towards quadrant 1 or they will fail to grow sustainably. They don’t have pricing power and their price hikes make it easier for competitors to offer a better proposition their customers.\r\n\r\nIn some of our previous publications (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-value-investing-the-indian-challenge/\">22<sup>nd</sup> Mar’19 blog</a>) we have defined three categories of companies in the listed universe – Type A, Type B and Type C. Companies which fall under Type A (telecom, airlines), are usually present in quadrant 1 shown in the exhibit above. Type C (Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Dr Lal Pathlabs, Relaxo, Asian Paints) companies are usually present in quadrant 2 and sometimes in quadrant 3. Companies which fall under Type B (e.g. Maruti, HUL) oscillate between quadrants 1, 3 and 4 as they go through different phases of their business evolution.\r\n\r\n<em>Note: Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Dr Lal Pathlabs, Relaxo, Asian Paints and Abbott Labs are part of most Marcellus’ portfolios. </em>\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\r\n\r\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'CCPs avoid price hikes to strengthen pricing power', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'ccps-avoid-price-hikes-to-strengthen-pricing-power', '', '', '2020-06-10 07:47:08', '2020-06-10 07:47:08', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3397', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3400, 1, '2020-06-10 07:47:02', '2020-06-10 07:47:02', '<strong>Most firms hike product prices to offset the impact of inflation in raw material costs and operating expenses. However, several firms in Marcellus’ CCP Portfolio – e.g. Asian Paints, Relaxo Footwears, Abbott India, Dr. Lal Pathlabs – have historically avoided hiking product prices meaningfully. These companies focus on deriving incremental operating efficiencies, thereby negating the need to hike product prices. They like to focus on volume growth whilst leaving no room for competition to disrupt their dominance via price wars. They invest heavily in technology, systems and processes, empowerment of high-quality talent and employee culture to help scale up their business and deepen their competitive advantages. In this newsletter we have provided a framework for assessing price hikes (or lack of price hikes) through the lens of pricing power.</strong>\n\n<strong>Performance update – as on 31<sup>st</sup> May 2020</strong>\n\nWe have a coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of seven analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3515 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccp1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"732\" height=\"430\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3398 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/june1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"682\" height=\"409\" /><strong>The relationship between price hikes and pricing power</strong>\n\nMost firms hike product prices to offset the impact of inflation in raw material costs and operating expenses. Yet, there are other firms which curtail product price hikes for long periods of time. Let us look at a few examples of dominant companies which have avoided price hikes historically:\n<ol>\n 	<li><strong>Bharti Airtel</strong>: Over the period FY07-FY17 (i.e. before Reliance Jio), Bharti Airtel retained its market leadership with a market share of ~23%. Its ARPUs (Average Revenue Per Unit customer) <strong><em>declined</em></strong> at a CAGR of -8% over these 10 years.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Interglobe Aviation</strong>: In the airlines sector, Interglobe Aviation (Indigo Airlines) has grown its market share over the last decade from ~15% in FY10 to ~50% in FY20 with its ‘revenue per passenger’ growing at only 1% CAGR over FY10-20.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Asian Paints</strong>: Asian Paints has dominated the decorative paints industry for several decades with its current market share being 50%. The firm has hiked its product prices on a like for like basis by a CAGR of less than 3% over the past two decades.</li>\n 	<li><strong> Lal Pathlabs</strong>: Dr. Lal Pathlabs is the biggest player in India’s pathology diagnostics industry. The firm has not hiked prices of its diagnostic tests for over four years now.</li>\n</ol>\nThe common factor across these four examples is clear – these firms have not hiked product prices for several years, despite inflation in various costs incurred by them over the same time frame. However, what is not so clear is the difference in their pricing power. On the one hand, Dr. Lal Pathlabs and Asian Paints have delivered ROCEs (Returns on Capital Employed) in excess of 25% for more than a decade with earnings growth above 20% CAGR – a sign of immense pricing power. On the other hand, Bharti Airtel has delivered ROCEs consistently below 15% with non-existent earnings growth over FY07-17 – a sign of weak pricing power. Let us now dig deeper into the relationship between lack of price hikes and pricing power.\n\n<strong>What is pricing power? </strong>The standard definition of high pricing power is the ability of a firm to hike product prices without witnessing attrition in its customer base. However, since most business battles are fought around price cuts, we believe the complete definition of pricing power should be as follows:<em> If an incumbent firm offers a product to its customers at a certain price (say Rs 100), and a new competitor decides to offer a similar product to the same customers at a lower price (say Rs 70) – then can the incumbent retain its Rs 100 product price and also retain its market share? Or will the incumbent need to cut its product prices to defend its dominance? If it is the former, then the incumbent has high pricing power, otherwise not.</em>\n\nMost sectors are highly competitive, and most firms have weak pricing power. For instance, in the airlines sector, the bulk of airline passengers make their choices based on ticket pricing – cheapest wins. Likewise, changing a telecom provider in India has historically been decided by customers predominantly on the back of price – cheapest amongst the top 3-4 players has always won market share from others. For such companies it is easy to understand why they have avoided price hikes for several years – price wars and price led competition doesn’t allow an incumbent leaders with low pricing power to retain their market share whilst also hiking their product prices.\n\n<strong>Why do firms with incredibly high pricing power choose to avoid price hikes?</strong>\n\nOur understanding of great Indian firms with high pricing power suggests that typically, their competitive advantages are related to one or more of the following factors - product differentiation, supply chain efficiencies, brand, superior technology, greater understanding of the customer, regulatory environment, handling of raw materials, or other such factors. However, to sustain, strengthen and scale up these competitive advantages, most such great firms also have some common underlying ingredients which define their DNA. These ingredients usually include a sharp focus on systems and processes, operational efficiencies, high quality board of directors, empowerment of professionals, tech investments, and <strong>a propensity to avoid price hikes as much as possible</strong>. Lack of price hikes helps these great firms further suffocate their competitors and deepen their own competitive advantages due to a combination of the following factors:\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>The ‘volume-game’: </strong>One of the biggest opportunities available for a business in India is around scale - even in some of the most basic utility oriented categories like footwear and undergarments, there is a long runway of growth available before the category growth stagnates. Curtailed price hikes help make products of a company more affordable over time and hence accelerate penetration of the product across geographies (tier 3 / 4 / 5 cities or rural India) and across socio-economic strata. Scaling up such a business through volume-growth rather than through price hikes, increases the complexity of the operation in areas like supply chain, manufacturing, manpower management, etc. These complexities, if addressed through systems / processes / institutionalized operational execution etc, become an added source of competitive advantage for such firms. One of the best examples of this in our portfolio is Relaxo Footwears which manufactures and sells more than 20 crore pairs of footwear per year (5.5 lakhs pairs per day!) at an average price of Rs 130 per pair. Despite footwear being one of the most labour intensive manufacturing processes, Relaxo employs its entire labour workforce (rather than using contract labour) and runs an in-house manufacturing process (rather than outsourcing). The firm also distributes its products through distributors rather than wholesalers. A recent press article highlighted (<a href=\"https://www.forbesindia.com/article/8th-anniversary-special/from-just-a-single-product-in-1976-relaxo-has-come-a-long-way/46965/1\">click here</a>) – <em>“Within the company there was a view that if we increased volumes, profits would come automatically. Accenture taught us that profitable growth has to be an end in itself,” says Ritesh Dua. He cites the example of its Sparx range of footwear, which was struggling to grow. The advice given to the company was that prices needed to be cut by 20 percent, so they went about reengineering the product and the way it was manufactured. The re-launched Sparx has been a huge success.</em></li>\n 	<li><strong>Focus on incremental operating efficiencies: </strong>Such firms consistently derive incremental operating efficiencies through investments in technology, systems and processes or economies of scale. These operating efficiencies help offset the adverse effect of inflation in raw material and operating cost, and hence negate the basic need to hike product prices. If competitors cannot match the quantum of such incremental operating efficiencies, they get suffocated because of lack of price hikes from the market leading competitor. Asian Paints is a great example of this given its consistent improvements in manufacturing processes, raw material vendor management, backward integration and an efficient supply chain execution which have helped it maintain strong margins and ROCEs with minimal product price hikes of 2%-3% CAGR (see our <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/newsletter/consistent-compounders/enduring-greatness-in-a-disrupted-world/\">1<sup>st</sup> May 2020 newsletter</a> for a case study on Asian Paints).</li>\n 	<li><strong>Ability to absorb regulatory changes like price-controls</strong>: There are several industries like pharma and healthcare (diagnostics) where product prices are capped by regulatory intervention. Such moves by regulators destroy the profitability of many of the players in these sectors. Great companies in such sectors use such regulatory headwinds to their advantage by scaling up volumes at lower prices to deliver a highly profitable and sustainable solution which is difficult for competitors to replicate. One such example from our CCP portfolio is of Abbott India with its product Thyronorm.</li>\n 	<li>In FY2010, GSK’s Eltroxin was the market leading drug for treating hypothyroidism with ~ 50% market share and Abbott’s Thyronorm had about 40% market share. The market size was around US$7 mn. Between 2011 &amp; 2014, Government of India introduced National List of Essential Medicines, 2011 and Drug Pricing Control Order 2013. Both these regulations led to 20-25% decrease in the selling price of Eltroxin and Thyronorm. Following this, GSK slowed down it investments behind the brand Eltroxin due to the reduced margins available on this product. Abbott India on the other hand, doubled down on increasing market share of Thyronorm. In 2011, it launched its Think Thyroid Think Life Campaign in association with Indian Thyroid Society under which it worked on increasing awareness about Thyroid disorders, conducted over 5,600 camps for thyroid screening, created brand team to increase the knowledge base of primary physicians and gynaecologists, conducted academic programs – ‘thyroid update’ which covered 4,000 doctors. It also created a sales team, known as the “Thyroid Activation Team,” worked with healthcare professionals in rural communities throughout India to test women for hypothyroidism. When the disease was detected, the patient was told how Thyronorm would manage their symptoms and was directed to the local pharmacy to obtain the drug. The endorsement by healthcare professionals, coupled with Thyronorm’s low price, reduced the likelihood that the patient would seek alternative treatments. In addition, Abbott India differentiated Thyronorm by creating combination drugs that added vitamins or supplements, for example, Thyronorm Plus Iodine or Thyronorm with calcium. These versions of Thyronorm addressed deficiencies that often occurred in women with hypothyroidism (source: Kellogg School of Management case study). As a result of its focus on Thyronorm brand, Abbott is the market leader in hypothyroidism segment with market share of ~ 52% (FY2019) when the market size has increased to ~US$ 99 mn. Thyronorm’s sales have grown at 33% CAGR over the past 10 years (FY10-FY20). GSK’s Eltroxin’s market share is down to only 27% now.</li>\n 	<li><strong>Ability to remain unaffected by price wars</strong>: From 2016 to 2018, Thyrocare triggered price war by offering diagnostic tests at 30-50% cheaper price compared to those of incumbent leaders like Dr. Lal Pathlabs. Similarly, paint companies like Jotun (Norway’s largest paint player) over the last 10 years, and Sherwin Williams (world’s largest paint player) over 2006-2011 have offered dealer margins substantially more attractive than what Asian Paints offers. An incumbent leader can remain unaffected by such price wars only if the combination of robust competitive advantages and historically curtailed price hikes results in: a) customers continuing to stick to the incumbent leader despite cheaper offerings from a new competitor; and b) price wars being unaffordable for new competitors. For instance, the velocity of Asian Paints’ supply chain ensures that most paint dealers in the country get more than 3 deliveries each day across several thousand SKUs in a voluminous product. This is central to the firm’s competitive advantage and a higher dealer margin or lower priced product offered by Asian Paints’ competitors did not make it easy for dealers or painters to prefer competitors’ products over Asian Paints’ products.</li>\n</ul>\n<strong>Investment implications</strong>\n\nThe relationship between ‘price hikes’ and ‘pricing power’ can be summarized through a 2 x 2 matrix shown in the exhibit below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3516 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccp2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"785\" height=\"499\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3399 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Capturejune2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"712\" height=\"453\" />Firms in quadrant 1 (top left) are worst placed on this exhibit. These companies have low pricing power and that forces them to sacrifice profitability in the face of intense price-led competition. They could be price followers and one of their competitors sits in quadrant 2 with high pricing power who keeps suffocating the weaker players by limiting product price hikes (e.g. most smaller competitors of Relaxo Footwears or Asian Paints). Or it could be an industry where even firms with dominant market share do not have enough pricing power and hence the only way for the market leader to avoid losing market share is to avoid price hikes (e.g. telecom or airline industry in India over the past two decades).\n\nFirms in quadrant 2 (top right) are best placed on this exhibit. Several of our portfolio companies fall in this quadrant. They are market leaders (or on the way to become market leaders) with high pricing power backed by sustainable competitive advantages. These firms sell small ticket day to day essential products and have a habit of avoiding price hikes whilst ensuring that their ROCEs (margins as well as asset turns) are supported by incremental operating efficiencies. They like to focus on growing their businesses through volume growth whilst leaving no room for competition to disrupt their dominance via price wars. They invest heavily in technology, systems and processes, empowerment of high-quality talent and employee culture to help scale up their business and deepen their competitive advantages.\n\nFirms in quadrant 3 (bottom right) are likely to have reduced <em>sustainability</em> of their competitive advantages compared to firms in quadrant 2. If these firms in quadrant 3 are selling day to day essential products consumed by the masses, their approach towards price hikes could eventually dilute their pricing power. Their products will either become unaffordable and hence unsuccessful in scaling up, or else once scaled up, they will attract competition which might disrupt their ROCEs by offering lower price points on similar products. However, there are some exceptions to this hypothesis in quadrant 3. Firms which have built a rare strategic asset (e.g. a patented product) which makes the demand for their products price-inelastic, might be able to sustain their pricing power despite hiking product prices for long periods of time.\n\nFirms in quadrant 4 will either quickly move towards quadrant 1 or they will fail to grow sustainably. They don’t have pricing power and their price hikes make it easier for competitors to offer a better proposition their customers.\n\nIn some of our previous publications (<a href=\"https://marcellus.in/blogs/marcellus-value-investing-the-indian-challenge/\">22<sup>nd</sup> Mar’19 blog</a>) we have defined three categories of companies in the listed universe – Type A, Type B and Type C. Companies which fall under Type A (telecom, airlines), are usually present in quadrant 1 shown in the exhibit above. Type C (Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Dr Lal Pathlabs, Relaxo, Asian Paints) companies are usually present in quadrant 2 and sometimes in quadrant 3. Companies which fall under Type B (e.g. Maruti, HUL) oscillate between quadrants 1, 3 and 4 as they go through different phases of their business evolution.\n\n<em>Note: Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Dr Lal Pathlabs, Relaxo, Asian Paints and Abbott Labs are part of most Marcellus’ portfolios. </em>\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>\n\nIf you want to read our other published material, please visit <a href=\"https://marcellus.in/\">https://marcellus.in/</a>\n\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor investment advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>', 'CCPs avoid price hikes to strengthen pricing power', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3397-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-10 07:47:02', '2020-06-10 07:47:02', '', 3397, 'https://marcellus.in/3397-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3401, 1, '2020-05-31 06:23:24', '2020-05-31 06:23:24', 'Every now and then we across an article which makes us realise just how little we understand of the world around us. This piece from the New Yorker not only highlights the limits of our knowledge but also how that lack of knowledge isn’t preventing us from wrecking the world which we live in. This article delves into the fact that no one has ever figured out where eels come from. We don’t know how they mate and no one has ever identified any sexual organs in their body.\r\nA host of great minds have tried to resolve this mystery: <em>“The young man, whose name was Sigmund Freud, eventually followed his evolving questions in other directions. But in Trieste, elbow-deep in slime (in 1876), he hoped to be the first person to find what men of science had been seeking for thousands of years: the testicles of an eel. To see them would be to begin to solve a profound mystery, one that had stumped Aristotle and countless successors throughout the history of natural science: Where do eels come from?</em>\r\n<em>The nineteenth century had brought Darwin and Mendel, Pasteur and Mendeleev, and a growing sense that scientists (a word coined only in the eighteen-thirties), with their studies and their systems and their microscopes, were at last equal to solving the great quandaries of the natural world. Questions that had befuddled mankind for centuries—where life comes from, what it is made of, how it changes, why it ends—were now seen as knowable, quantifiable, explicable. Just two years before Freud arrived in Trieste, the German biologist Max Schultze, lying on his deathbed, observed, perhaps wistfully, that he was leaving a world where “all the important questions . . . had now been settled.” All of them, that is, “except the eel question.””</em>\r\nUntil 40-50 years, eels were a commonly consumed food across European countries with each country having its distinctive way of preparing what was then a commonly available fish: <em>“People caught eels in brooks, rivers, lakes, the sea. They also caught them, inexplicably, in ponds that dried out and refilled each year, and that had no access to other bodies of water. They couldn’t help but notice that the creatures seemed to have no ovaries, no testicles, no eggs, no milt. That they were never observed to mate. That they sometimes seemed to issue from the earth itself.”</em>\r\nGradually, observers uncovered some of the mysteries around this remarkable creature: <em>“The truth emerged only slowly, and was, in its own slippery way, stranger than the fiction. Careful observers discovered that what had long been taken for several different kinds of animals were in fact just one. The eel was a creature of metamorphosis, transforming itself over the course of its life into four distinct beings: a tiny gossamer larva with huge eyes, floating toward Europe in the open sea; a shimmering glass eel, known as an elver, a few inches in length with visible insides, making its way along coasts and up rivers; a yellow-brown eel, the kind you might catch in ponds, which can move across dry land, hibernate in mud until you’ve forgotten it was ever there, and live quietly for half a century in a single place; and, finally, the silver eel, a long, powerful muscle that ripples its way back to sea. When this last metamorphosis happens, the eel’s stomach dissolves—it will travel thousands of miles on its fat reserves alone—and its reproductive organs develop for the first time. In the eels of Europe, no one could find those organs because they did not yet exist.”</em>\r\nThen in 1904 Danish research Johannes Schmidt took it upon himself to figure out where exactly in the Atlantic Ocean the eels came from. After 20 years of painstaking search he reached an answer: <em>“Schmidt had traced the Anguilla Anguilla (the biological name of the eel) to the Sargasso Sea—a sea within a sea, a garden of seaweed bounded not by land but by great currents of water. (The American eel breeds there as well, and it is still something of a mystery how the larvae, all mixed together but genetically distinct, know which continent is their future home.)”</em>\r\nEven this knowledge nobody could figure out where eels came from or how they were created: <em>“Many expeditions have followed Schmidt to the breeding grounds in the decades since, each with better technology than the last. They, too, have found plenty of larvae, but, when one expedition collected and examined seven thousand fish eggs, not one of them turned out to be from an eel. Scientists have put G.P.S. trackers on silver eels beginning their migration; they’ve used hormones to bring females into heat, transported them to the breeding grounds, and attached them to buoys to use their pheromones as bait. They have dropped microphones into the water and opened the stomachs of predators. And yet no one has ever seen Anguilla anguilla mating anywhere, or so much as set eyes on a mature eel, living or dead, in the Sargasso Sea.”</em>\r\nYou might ask why should you and I care about trivia such as this. The answer: <em>“The formerly ordinary, everyday eel is classified as critically endangered, the last official designation on the road toward nonexistence. (Well, there is also “extinct in the wild,” but without their wild breeding grounds eels are nothing. No one has ever managed to breed them in captivity.) Svensson writes, “This is the latest and most urgent eel question: Why is it disappearing?””</em>', 'Where do eels come from?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'where-do-eels-come-from', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:34:45', '2020-06-01 06:34:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3401', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3402, 1, '2020-06-01 06:25:28', '2020-06-01 06:25:28', 'Every now and then we across an article which makes us realise just how little we understand of the world around us. This piece from the New Yorker not only highlights the limits of our knowledge but also how that lack of knowledge isn’t preventing us from wrecking the world which we live in. This article delves into the fact that no one has ever figured out where eels come from. We don’t know how they mate and no one has ever identified any sexual organs in their body.\r\nA host of great minds have tried to resolve this mystery: <em>“The young man, whose name was Sigmund Freud, eventually followed his evolving questions in other directions. But in Trieste, elbow-deep in slime (in 1876), he hoped to be the first person to find what men of science had been seeking for thousands of years: the testicles of an eel. To see them would be to begin to solve a profound mystery, one that had stumped Aristotle and countless successors throughout the history of natural science: Where do eels come from?</em>\r\n<em>The nineteenth century had brought Darwin and Mendel, Pasteur and Mendeleev, and a growing sense that scientists (a word coined only in the eighteen-thirties), with their studies and their systems and their microscopes, were at last equal to solving the great quandaries of the natural world. Questions that had befuddled mankind for centuries—where life comes from, what it is made of, how it changes, why it ends—were now seen as knowable, quantifiable, explicable. Just two years before Freud arrived in Trieste, the German biologist Max Schultze, lying on his deathbed, observed, perhaps wistfully, that he was leaving a world where “all the important questions . . . had now been settled.” All of them, that is, “except the eel question.””</em>\r\nUntil 40-50 years, eels were a commonly consumed food across European countries with each country having its distinctive way of preparing what was then a commonly available fish: <em>“People caught eels in brooks, rivers, lakes, the sea. They also caught them, inexplicably, in ponds that dried out and refilled each year, and that had no access to other bodies of water. They couldn’t help but notice that the creatures seemed to have no ovaries, no testicles, no eggs, no milt. That they were never observed to mate. That they sometimes seemed to issue from the earth itself.”</em>\r\nGradually, observers uncovered some of the mysteries around this remarkable creature: <em>“The truth emerged only slowly, and was, in its own slippery way, stranger than the fiction. Careful observers discovered that what had long been taken for several different kinds of animals were in fact just one. The eel was a creature of metamorphosis, transforming itself over the course of its life into four distinct beings: a tiny gossamer larva with huge eyes, floating toward Europe in the open sea; a shimmering glass eel, known as an elver, a few inches in length with visible insides, making its way along coasts and up rivers; a yellow-brown eel, the kind you might catch in ponds, which can move across dry land, hibernate in mud until you’ve forgotten it was ever there, and live quietly for half a century in a single place; and, finally, the silver eel, a long, powerful muscle that ripples its way back to sea. When this last metamorphosis happens, the eel’s stomach dissolves—it will travel thousands of miles on its fat reserves alone—and its reproductive organs develop for the first time. In the eels of Europe, no one could find those organs because they did not yet exist.”</em>\r\nThen in 1904 Danish research Johannes Schmidt took it upon himself to figure out where exactly in the Atlantic Ocean the eels came from. After 20 years of painstaking search he reached an answer: <em>“Schmidt had traced the Anguilla Anguilla (the biological name of the eel) to the Sargasso Sea—a sea within a sea, a garden of seaweed bounded not by land but by great currents of water. (The American eel breeds there as well, and it is still something of a mystery how the larvae, all mixed together but genetically distinct, know which continent is their future home.)”</em>\r\nEven this knowledge nobody could figure out where eels came from or how they were created: <em>“Many expeditions have followed Schmidt to the breeding grounds in the decades since, each with better technology than the last. They, too, have found plenty of larvae, but, when one expedition collected and examined seven thousand fish eggs, not one of them turned out to be from an eel. Scientists have put G.P.S. trackers on silver eels beginning their migration; they’ve used hormones to bring females into heat, transported them to the breeding grounds, and attached them to buoys to use their pheromones as bait. They have dropped microphones into the water and opened the stomachs of predators. And yet no one has ever seen Anguilla anguilla mating anywhere, or so much as set eyes on a mature eel, living or dead, in the Sargasso Sea.”</em>\r\nYou might ask why should you and I care about trivia such as this. The answer: <em>“The formerly ordinary, everyday eel is classified as critically endangered, the last official designation on the road toward nonexistence. (Well, there is also “extinct in the wild,” but without their wild breeding grounds eels are nothing. No one has ever managed to breed them in captivity.) Svensson writes, “This is the latest and most urgent eel question: Why is it disappearing?””</em>', 'Where do eels come from?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3401-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:25:28', '2020-06-01 06:25:28', '', 3401, 'https://marcellus.in/3401-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3403, 1, '2020-06-01 06:34:45', '2020-06-01 06:34:45', 'Every now and then we across an article which makes us realise just how little we understand of the world around us. This piece from the New Yorker not only highlights the limits of our knowledge but also how that lack of knowledge isn’t preventing us from wrecking the world which we live in. This article delves into the fact that no one has ever figured out where eels come from. We don’t know how they mate and no one has ever identified any sexual organs in their body.\r\nA host of great minds have tried to resolve this mystery: <em>“The young man, whose name was Sigmund Freud, eventually followed his evolving questions in other directions. But in Trieste, elbow-deep in slime (in 1876), he hoped to be the first person to find what men of science had been seeking for thousands of years: the testicles of an eel. To see them would be to begin to solve a profound mystery, one that had stumped Aristotle and countless successors throughout the history of natural science: Where do eels come from?</em>\r\n<em>The nineteenth century had brought Darwin and Mendel, Pasteur and Mendeleev, and a growing sense that scientists (a word coined only in the eighteen-thirties), with their studies and their systems and their microscopes, were at last equal to solving the great quandaries of the natural world. Questions that had befuddled mankind for centuries—where life comes from, what it is made of, how it changes, why it ends—were now seen as knowable, quantifiable, explicable. Just two years before Freud arrived in Trieste, the German biologist Max Schultze, lying on his deathbed, observed, perhaps wistfully, that he was leaving a world where “all the important questions . . . had now been settled.” All of them, that is, “except the eel question.””</em>\r\nUntil 40-50 years, eels were a commonly consumed food across European countries with each country having its distinctive way of preparing what was then a commonly available fish: <em>“People caught eels in brooks, rivers, lakes, the sea. They also caught them, inexplicably, in ponds that dried out and refilled each year, and that had no access to other bodies of water. They couldn’t help but notice that the creatures seemed to have no ovaries, no testicles, no eggs, no milt. That they were never observed to mate. That they sometimes seemed to issue from the earth itself.”</em>\r\nGradually, observers uncovered some of the mysteries around this remarkable creature: <em>“The truth emerged only slowly, and was, in its own slippery way, stranger than the fiction. Careful observers discovered that what had long been taken for several different kinds of animals were in fact just one. The eel was a creature of metamorphosis, transforming itself over the course of its life into four distinct beings: a tiny gossamer larva with huge eyes, floating toward Europe in the open sea; a shimmering glass eel, known as an elver, a few inches in length with visible insides, making its way along coasts and up rivers; a yellow-brown eel, the kind you might catch in ponds, which can move across dry land, hibernate in mud until you’ve forgotten it was ever there, and live quietly for half a century in a single place; and, finally, the silver eel, a long, powerful muscle that ripples its way back to sea. When this last metamorphosis happens, the eel’s stomach dissolves—it will travel thousands of miles on its fat reserves alone—and its reproductive organs develop for the first time. In the eels of Europe, no one could find those organs because they did not yet exist.”</em>\r\nThen in 1904 Danish research Johannes Schmidt took it upon himself to figure out where exactly in the Atlantic Ocean the eels came from. After 20 years of painstaking search he reached an answer: <em>“Schmidt had traced the Anguilla Anguilla (the biological name of the eel) to the Sargasso Sea—a sea within a sea, a garden of seaweed bounded not by land but by great currents of water. (The American eel breeds there as well, and it is still something of a mystery how the larvae, all mixed together but genetically distinct, know which continent is their future home.)”</em>\r\nEven this knowledge nobody could figure out where eels came from or how they were created: <em>“Many expeditions have followed Schmidt to the breeding grounds in the decades since, each with better technology than the last. They, too, have found plenty of larvae, but, when one expedition collected and examined seven thousand fish eggs, not one of them turned out to be from an eel. Scientists have put G.P.S. trackers on silver eels beginning their migration; they’ve used hormones to bring females into heat, transported them to the breeding grounds, and attached them to buoys to use their pheromones as bait. They have dropped microphones into the water and opened the stomachs of predators. And yet no one has ever seen Anguilla anguilla mating anywhere, or so much as set eyes on a mature eel, living or dead, in the Sargasso Sea.”</em>\r\nYou might ask why should you and I care about trivia such as this. The answer: <em>“The formerly ordinary, everyday eel is classified as critically endangered, the last official designation on the road toward nonexistence. (Well, there is also “extinct in the wild,” but without their wild breeding grounds eels are nothing. No one has ever managed to breed them in captivity.) Svensson writes, “This is the latest and most urgent eel question: Why is it disappearing?””</em>', 'Where do eels come from?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3401-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:34:45', '2020-06-01 06:34:45', '', 3401, 'https://marcellus.in/3401-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3404, 1, '2020-05-31 06:35:15', '2020-05-31 06:35:15', 'Millions of parents around the world are fretting about the impact of the lockdown on their children. This article from Bloomberg should reduce parental anxiety a notch or two: <em>“Perhaps it’s time to re-read the classic longitudinal study “Children of the Great Depression.” Written by sociologist Glenn Elder, it mined data first collected in a study of 167 adolescents living in Oakland, California, in the 1930s. This cohort, born in 1920 and 1921, went from the prosperity of that decade to the economic calamity that followed it.</em>\r\n<em>The study amassed staggering amounts of data on every single individual, their other family members, their psychological profile, their household income and expenditures, and social lives. Subsequent researchers tracked the kids into their 60s and beyond.</em>\r\n<em>Elder’s contribution was to actually do something with the material that viewed these lives over the long run. He coded and analyzed the information that had been gathered, comparing different cohorts by measures such as social class and the economic hit sustained by the family. Then he compared how these experiences ramified through these individuals’ lives as they grew up and started families of their own.</em>\r\n<em>Many of these children directly experienced the ravages of the Great Depression: Parents lost jobs, families lost social status, and downward mobility was commonplace, though some families largely escaped unscathed. Those not so fortunate tried, often unsuccessfully, to adapt: Mothers often took on jobs outside the house to help make ends meet, for example, while fathers took on menial work well below their training….</em>\r\n<em>At the time, conventional wisdom held that these experiences would scar children for life. One psychoanalyst from the 1930s cited the “devastating effects of the breakdown of morale in parents,” and predicted that this generation would suffer permanent anxiety, fear, discouragement and loss of confidence. Simply put, they would never fully recover.</em>\r\n<em>But that’s not what actually happened. Yes, Elder found that these children who grew up amidst economic deprivation — defined as a loss of household income of 35 percent or more — carried the scars of their childhood. For example, they were more likely to exhibit anxieties about their social status, and they worried more about the opinion of their peers than children who didn’t experience the same deprivation.</em>\r\n<em>But what was far more striking about Elder’s findings was the fact that economic deprivation was correlated with greater success. As the boys in the study became men, they moved up the occupational ladder more quickly and aggressively than their more fortunate counterparts; they also took advantage of educational opportunities more readily as well….”</em>\r\nSo why do kids who go through hardship become more successful, more driven adults? <em>“Elder concluded that the Great Depression had effectively deprived the children of a childhood while setting them up for long-term success. As he concluded, “It seems that a childhood which shelters the young from the hardships of life consequently fails to develop or test adaptive capacities which are called upon in life crisis.””</em>\r\nOther researchers found similar findings in analyses of British kids who lived through World War II. What doesn’t kill us, does seem to make us stronger.', 'The great depression paradox: Children survived, then thrived', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-great-depression-paradox-children-survived-then-thrived', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:38:55', '2020-06-01 06:38:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3404', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3405, 1, '2020-06-01 06:36:36', '2020-06-01 06:36:36', 'Millions of parents around the world are fretting about the impact of the lockdown on their children. This article from Bloomberg should reduce parental anxiety a notch or two: <em>“Perhaps it’s time to re-read the classic longitudinal study “Children of the Great Depression.” Written by sociologist Glenn Elder, it mined data first collected in a study of 167 adolescents living in Oakland, California, in the 1930s. This cohort, born in 1920 and 1921, went from the prosperity of that decade to the economic calamity that followed it.</em>\r\n<em>The study amassed staggering amounts of data on every single individual, their other family members, their psychological profile, their household income and expenditures, and social lives. Subsequent researchers tracked the kids into their 60s and beyond.</em>\r\n<em>Elder’s contribution was to actually do something with the material that viewed these lives over the long run. He coded and analyzed the information that had been gathered, comparing different cohorts by measures such as social class and the economic hit sustained by the family. Then he compared how these experiences ramified through these individuals’ lives as they grew up and started families of their own.</em>\r\n<em>Many of these children directly experienced the ravages of the Great Depression: Parents lost jobs, families lost social status, and downward mobility was commonplace, though some families largely escaped unscathed. Those not so fortunate tried, often unsuccessfully, to adapt: Mothers often took on jobs outside the house to help make ends meet, for example, while fathers took on menial work well below their training….</em>\r\n<em>At the time, conventional wisdom held that these experiences would scar children for life. One psychoanalyst from the 1930s cited the “devastating effects of the breakdown of morale in parents,” and predicted that this generation would suffer permanent anxiety, fear, discouragement and loss of confidence. Simply put, they would never fully recover.</em>\r\n<em>But that’s not what actually happened. Yes, Elder found that these children who grew up amidst economic deprivation — defined as a loss of household income of 35 percent or more — carried the scars of their childhood. For example, they were more likely to exhibit anxieties about their social status, and they worried more about the opinion of their peers than children who didn’t experience the same deprivation.</em>\r\n<em>But what was far more striking about Elder’s findings was the fact that economic deprivation was correlated with greater success. As the boys in the study became men, they moved up the occupational ladder more quickly and aggressively than their more fortunate counterparts; they also took advantage of educational opportunities more readily as well….”</em>\r\nSo why do kids who go through hardship become more successful, more driven adults? <em>“Elder concluded that the Great Depression had effectively deprived the children of a childhood while setting them up for long-term success. As he concluded, “It seems that a childhood which shelters the young from the hardships of life consequently fails to develop or test adaptive capacities which are called upon in life crisis.””</em>\r\nOther researchers found similar findings in analyses of British kids who lived through World War II. What doesn’t kill us, does seem to make us stronger.', 'The great depression paradox: Children survived, then thrived', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3404-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:36:36', '2020-06-01 06:36:36', '', 3404, 'https://marcellus.in/3404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3406, 1, '2020-05-31 06:36:44', '2020-05-31 06:36:44', '<div>One of the key reasons to publish <em>‘Three longs and three shorts’</em> is that in a world with information overload, any means to separate the signal from the noise can make a meaningful difference to our understanding of the world around us. This is perhaps the most common problem all of us face when it comes to continuous learning and a problem that is growing exponentially. In this blog, Michael Simmons helps us with a framework to assess how we choose what information to consume. First, he identifies the source of the problem:\r\n<em>“Although we think of information overload as one big problem, it actually consists of four problems that are each getting exponentially worse, and that together add up to one big crisis - Content Shock, Echo Chambers, Constant Distraction and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).</em>\r\n<strong><em>Content Shock: </em></strong><em>With the advent of online publishing and social media, the amount of knowledge available to us is expanding so fast that none of us can possibly keep up. Meanwhile, more content is added to the pile every second of every day. The gap between this total collective human knowledge and our time to consume it grows larger every second…The problem: Much new information and many new skills we could learn are out there, but they’re so buried that we don’t even know they exist.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Echo Chambers: </em></strong><em>As groups grow in size, they become less stable and more diverse, eventually fracturing into subgroups…Each group lives in its own echo chamber, which it believes is the “true” reality, and it fights to maintain this belief by demonizing other groups. And in an age of social media and targeted, personalized content, these echo chambers become even more insular (see The Filter Bubble for more on this), as we’re exposed to less and less information outside our own chosen groups.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Constant Distraction: </em></strong><em>Our physical and virtual environments are surrounded by more and more content — whether editorial, advertising, or “fake news.” This content is marketed specifically to our own inclinations, which proves a powerful distraction that can keep us from pursuing more useful information or our own goals.</em>\r\n<strong><em>FOMO</em></strong><em>: Too many good options combined with not enough foreknowledge on which is best means we’re constantly second-guessing our choices.”</em>\r\nThe solution he proposes is three pronged. First, to focus on only information that has the potential to transform your life or what he calls breakthrough knowledge. And handling social media is a crucial part of this solution i.e, where we proactively choose what information we consume rather than just consuming what is pushed our way by artificial intelligence driven digital marketing bots.\r\n<em>“People who learn to access breakthrough knowledge quickly while minimizing the noise have a huge advantage over others. These people are living in a veritable information cornucopia with lots of juicy fruit. This is the underrated skill.</em>\r\n<em>The only way to make this potential info-apocalypse into a utopia is to change our approach to media from a reactive to proactive one. We cannot passively have faith in the stream on our news feeds, default settings, and notifications to guide us. The companies that control these do not have our best interests in mind, and they have broken the public trust. These feeds are designed for one thing: Keep your attention for as long as possible in the short-term and long-term. This business model is fundamentally conflicted with our own life goals.</em>\r\n<em>Breakthrough knowledge, on the other hand, challenges our fundamental beliefs about how the world works or introduces a new lens through which to see the world. It sticks with us. Identifying potential breakthrough knowledge is actually fairly easy. There is a question that I ask myself before I consume any media that works as an incredible filter. I simply ask:</em>\r\n<strong><em>Does this have the potential to fundamentally change my life?</em></strong>\r\n<em>This power question helps me avoid mindlessly consuming content because it has a good title, shows up in my newsfeed, and just sounds sort of interesting.</em>\r\n<em>Elon Musk: “It is very important to actively seek out and listen very carefully to negative feedback. This is something that people tend to avoid, because it is painful. I think that this is a very common mistake”</em>\r\n<em>Disconfirming evidence — evidence that proves your existing ideas wrong — is exponentially more valuable than confirming evidence. Scientists throughout history have realized this. Science grows by what is proven wrong, not what is proven right. One piece of disconfirming evidence can be worth a million pieces of confirming evidence just like one breakthrough knowledge book can be worth more than 100 incremental knowledge books.”</em>\r\nThe second tool Simmons recommends is the use of mental models to assimilate information coming our way. Simmons presents an interesting way of ranking sources of information based on its power: Tweets, Blogs, Books, Book summaries, Field Summaries and finally Mental Models.\r\n<em>“Mental models are representations of phenomena that have been observed across time, across fields of study, and across domains of life. In my opinion, they deliver the most knowledge value because:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The knowledge they impart is much more condensed than book summaries or even field summaries.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They retain their value over time (and even increase it).</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They are broadly applicable across fields.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>One of my favorite mental models, for example, is the 80/20 Rule: the idea that 20 percent of efforts or input causes 80 percent of results or output. This rule applies to business, creativity, relationships, health, and many more domains.</em>\r\n<em>Another example of a mental model is Opportunity Cost, which is the value of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. This model is valuable when making decisions across your entire life, because it encourages you to reflect on what potential alternatives to a decision might be. It prevents you from going with the first choice that comes to your head.</em>\r\n<em>When you learn mental models, you begin to see the underlying patterns at work in every area of life, and it becomes much easier to spot the signal in the noise.”</em>\r\nThe third tool is build a learning aptitude i.e, learning how to learn systematically:\r\n<em>“Learning how to learn is the bundle of skills that ultimately helps us find breakthrough knowledge and apply it to our life in order to get a result in the least amount of time. Few people even realize that learning how to learn is its own distinct skill set. As a result, they don’t improve.</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the scientific method in order to identify high quality information.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the value of diverse knowledge….People Who Have “Too Many Interests” Are More Likely To Be Successful According To Research.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the cognitive biases that lead to us trusting information we shouldn’t (e.g., confirmation bias, backfire effect, Dunning-Kruger Effect, halo effect, ingroup bias)”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'While Everyone Is Distracted By Social Media, Successful People Double Down On An Underrated Skill', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'while-everyone-is-distracted-by-social-media-successful-people-double-down-on-an-underrated-skill', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3406', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3407, 1, '2020-06-01 06:38:55', '2020-06-01 06:38:55', 'Millions of parents around the world are fretting about the impact of the lockdown on their children. This article from Bloomberg should reduce parental anxiety a notch or two: <em>“Perhaps it’s time to re-read the classic longitudinal study “Children of the Great Depression.” Written by sociologist Glenn Elder, it mined data first collected in a study of 167 adolescents living in Oakland, California, in the 1930s. This cohort, born in 1920 and 1921, went from the prosperity of that decade to the economic calamity that followed it.</em>\r\n<em>The study amassed staggering amounts of data on every single individual, their other family members, their psychological profile, their household income and expenditures, and social lives. Subsequent researchers tracked the kids into their 60s and beyond.</em>\r\n<em>Elder’s contribution was to actually do something with the material that viewed these lives over the long run. He coded and analyzed the information that had been gathered, comparing different cohorts by measures such as social class and the economic hit sustained by the family. Then he compared how these experiences ramified through these individuals’ lives as they grew up and started families of their own.</em>\r\n<em>Many of these children directly experienced the ravages of the Great Depression: Parents lost jobs, families lost social status, and downward mobility was commonplace, though some families largely escaped unscathed. Those not so fortunate tried, often unsuccessfully, to adapt: Mothers often took on jobs outside the house to help make ends meet, for example, while fathers took on menial work well below their training….</em>\r\n<em>At the time, conventional wisdom held that these experiences would scar children for life. One psychoanalyst from the 1930s cited the “devastating effects of the breakdown of morale in parents,” and predicted that this generation would suffer permanent anxiety, fear, discouragement and loss of confidence. Simply put, they would never fully recover.</em>\r\n<em>But that’s not what actually happened. Yes, Elder found that these children who grew up amidst economic deprivation — defined as a loss of household income of 35 percent or more — carried the scars of their childhood. For example, they were more likely to exhibit anxieties about their social status, and they worried more about the opinion of their peers than children who didn’t experience the same deprivation.</em>\r\n<em>But what was far more striking about Elder’s findings was the fact that economic deprivation was correlated with greater success. As the boys in the study became men, they moved up the occupational ladder more quickly and aggressively than their more fortunate counterparts; they also took advantage of educational opportunities more readily as well….”</em>\r\nSo why do kids who go through hardship become more successful, more driven adults? <em>“Elder concluded that the Great Depression had effectively deprived the children of a childhood while setting them up for long-term success. As he concluded, “It seems that a childhood which shelters the young from the hardships of life consequently fails to develop or test adaptive capacities which are called upon in life crisis.””</em>\r\nOther researchers found similar findings in analyses of British kids who lived through World War II. What doesn’t kill us, does seem to make us stronger.', 'The great depression paradox: Children survived, then thrived', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3404-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:38:55', '2020-06-01 06:38:55', '', 3404, 'https://marcellus.in/3404-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3408, 1, '2020-06-01 06:39:11', '2020-06-01 06:39:11', '<div>One of the key reasons to publish <em>‘Three longs and three shorts’</em> is that in a world with information overload, any means to separate the signal from the noise can make a meaningful difference to our understanding of the world around us. This is perhaps the most common problem all of us face when it comes to continuous learning and a problem that is growing exponentially. In this blog, Michael Simmons helps us with a framework to assess how we choose what information to consume. First, he identifies the source of the problem:\r\n<em>“Although we think of information overload as one big problem, it actually consists of four problems that are each getting exponentially worse, and that together add up to one big crisis - Content Shock, Echo Chambers, Constant Distraction and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).</em>\r\n<strong><em>Content Shock: </em></strong><em>With the advent of online publishing and social media, the amount of knowledge available to us is expanding so fast that none of us can possibly keep up. Meanwhile, more content is added to the pile every second of every day. The gap between this total collective human knowledge and our time to consume it grows larger every second…The problem: Much new information and many new skills we could learn are out there, but they’re so buried that we don’t even know they exist.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Echo Chambers: </em></strong><em>As groups grow in size, they become less stable and more diverse, eventually fracturing into subgroups…Each group lives in its own echo chamber, which it believes is the “true” reality, and it fights to maintain this belief by demonizing other groups. And in an age of social media and targeted, personalized content, these echo chambers become even more insular (see The Filter Bubble for more on this), as we’re exposed to less and less information outside our own chosen groups.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Constant Distraction: </em></strong><em>Our physical and virtual environments are surrounded by more and more content — whether editorial, advertising, or “fake news.” This content is marketed specifically to our own inclinations, which proves a powerful distraction that can keep us from pursuing more useful information or our own goals.</em>\r\n<strong><em>FOMO</em></strong><em>: Too many good options combined with not enough foreknowledge on which is best means we’re constantly second-guessing our choices.”</em>\r\nThe solution he proposes is three pronged. First, to focus on only information that has the potential to transform your life or what he calls breakthrough knowledge. And handling social media is a crucial part of this solution i.e, where we proactively choose what information we consume rather than just consuming what is pushed our way by artificial intelligence driven digital marketing bots.\r\n<em>“People who learn to access breakthrough knowledge quickly while minimizing the noise have a huge advantage over others. These people are living in a veritable information cornucopia with lots of juicy fruit. This is the underrated skill.</em>\r\n<em>The only way to make this potential info-apocalypse into a utopia is to change our approach to media from a reactive to proactive one. We cannot passively have faith in the stream on our news feeds, default settings, and notifications to guide us. The companies that control these do not have our best interests in mind, and they have broken the public trust. These feeds are designed for one thing: Keep your attention for as long as possible in the short-term and long-term. This business model is fundamentally conflicted with our own life goals.</em>\r\n<em>Breakthrough knowledge, on the other hand, challenges our fundamental beliefs about how the world works or introduces a new lens through which to see the world. It sticks with us. Identifying potential breakthrough knowledge is actually fairly easy. There is a question that I ask myself before I consume any media that works as an incredible filter. I simply ask:</em>\r\n<strong><em>Does this have the potential to fundamentally change my life?</em></strong>\r\n<em>This power question helps me avoid mindlessly consuming content because it has a good title, shows up in my newsfeed, and just sounds sort of interesting.</em>\r\n<em>Elon Musk: “It is very important to actively seek out and listen very carefully to negative feedback. This is something that people tend to avoid, because it is painful. I think that this is a very common mistake”</em>\r\n<em>Disconfirming evidence — evidence that proves your existing ideas wrong — is exponentially more valuable than confirming evidence. Scientists throughout history have realized this. Science grows by what is proven wrong, not what is proven right. One piece of disconfirming evidence can be worth a million pieces of confirming evidence just like one breakthrough knowledge book can be worth more than 100 incremental knowledge books.”</em>\r\nThe second tool Simmons recommends is the use of mental models to assimilate information coming our way. Simmons presents an interesting way of ranking sources of information based on its power: Tweets, Blogs, Books, Book summaries, Field Summaries and finally Mental Models.\r\n<em>“Mental models are representations of phenomena that have been observed across time, across fields of study, and across domains of life. In my opinion, they deliver the most knowledge value because:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The knowledge they impart is much more condensed than book summaries or even field summaries.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They retain their value over time (and even increase it).</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They are broadly applicable across fields.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>One of my favorite mental models, for example, is the 80/20 Rule: the idea that 20 percent of efforts or input causes 80 percent of results or output. This rule applies to business, creativity, relationships, health, and many more domains.</em>\r\n<em>Another example of a mental model is Opportunity Cost, which is the value of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. This model is valuable when making decisions across your entire life, because it encourages you to reflect on what potential alternatives to a decision might be. It prevents you from going with the first choice that comes to your head.</em>\r\n<em>When you learn mental models, you begin to see the underlying patterns at work in every area of life, and it becomes much easier to spot the signal in the noise.”</em>\r\nThe third tool is build a learning aptitude i.e, learning how to learn systematically:\r\n<em>“Learning how to learn is the bundle of skills that ultimately helps us find breakthrough knowledge and apply it to our life in order to get a result in the least amount of time. Few people even realize that learning how to learn is its own distinct skill set. As a result, they don’t improve.</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the scientific method in order to identify high quality information.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the value of diverse knowledge….People Who Have “Too Many Interests” Are More Likely To Be Successful According To Research.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the cognitive biases that lead to us trusting information we shouldn’t (e.g., confirmation bias, backfire effect, Dunning-Kruger Effect, halo effect, ingroup bias)”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'While Everyone Is Distracted By Social Media, Successful People Double Down On An Underrated Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3406-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:39:11', '2020-06-01 06:39:11', '', 3406, 'https://marcellus.in/3406-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3409, 1, '2020-05-31 06:39:17', '2020-05-31 06:39:17', 'The chorus of the end of value investing the way it was known and practised is getting louder and louder with more legends from the world of investing lend their voice to it. This time it is Professor Aswath Damodaran, who perhaps knows a thing or two about valuation – he teaches a popular course on valuation at NYU and also is fondly known as the Valuation Guru. Damodaran makes the point about the irrelevance of book value as assets of successful companies in the digital age are largely intangible and don’t get adequately captured in its reported book value, thereby overstating its Price to Book multiples, making those stocks look seemingly overvalued.\r\n<em>“Valuation Guru Aswath Damodaran has made a wakeup call to those who believe in old-style value investing. The Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business at New York University (NYU) says value investors have got stuck in the 20th century.</em>\r\n<em>In an interaction with ETNow, he said value and growth investing has become a very lazy categorisation of investing. “The former style lost out to the latter over the last decade. Stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields have been hurt the most,” he said. Often referred to as the \'Dean of Valuation’, Damodaran said as an investor one should not convince oneself that he is right and the rest of the world is wrong. “I think book value has completely lost its meaning. Value investing is not just buying low P/E and price-to-book stocks. I describe valuation as a craft. The Covid-19 crisis has humbled me further. There is so much to learn,” he said.</em>\r\nHe makes an even more pertinent point about Narratives and Numbers, the title of his latest book. He brings out the importance of having a narrative behind the numbers and coming from a valuation expert like him suggests that valuation is simply not a number crunching science. As he himself puts it, it is a craft. In the world of investing we often find a divide – people either believe in the narratives or some who blindly look at the numbers, when the key is perhaps to link the two. As Prof Damodaron put it beautifully elsewhere: <em>“I think of valuation as a bridge between stories and numbers, where every story becomes a number in the valuation and every number in a valuation has a story behind it.” </em>Why, even Robert Shiller, the economist who won the Nobel price for ‘emperical analysis of asset prices’ in 2013, published a book a late last year titled <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=65e3efa071&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D65e3efa071%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591070072894000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG3Lc8eV5GgXakQEJIW52kp6kS_hA\">“Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events”</a></em>\r\n<em>“Guru Aswath Damordaran, who has just released his book Narrative and Numbers, where he argues that “we would need stories, not mechanical valuations, to truly evaluate companies this year,” said the virus has clearly affected corporate operations and some services will face permanent loss. “Hotels, aviation, global travel have lost revenues. Startups that are into crisis will be snapped up by the biggies,” he said. The ongoing crisis has also hurt companies with high fixed costs like Tata Motors, he said. On the other hand, such a crisis will also produce big players like Amazon. He said that it was the dotcom bust, which gave birth to the Amazon what it is right now, not the boom. “People forget how close Amazon was to getting bankrupt before recovering,” Damodaran, who teaches teaches corporate finance and equity valuation, recalled.”</em>', 'Old style investing doesn\'t work anymore, says Damodaran', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'old-style-investing-doesnt-work-anymore-says-damodaran', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:41:12', '2020-06-01 06:41:12', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3409', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3410, 1, '2020-06-01 06:40:56', '2020-06-01 06:40:56', 'The chorus of the end of value investing the way it was known and practised is getting louder and louder with more legends from the world of investing lend their voice to it. This time it is Professor Aswath Damodaran, who perhaps knows a thing or two about valuation – he teaches a popular course on valuation at NYU and also is fondly known as the Valuation Guru. Damodaran makes the point about the irrelevance of book value as assets of successful companies in the digital age are largely intangible and don’t get adequately captured in its reported book value, thereby overstating its Price to Book multiples, making those stocks look seemingly overvalued.\r\n<em>“Valuation Guru Aswath Damodaran has made a wakeup call to those who believe in old-style value investing. The Professor of Finance at Stern School of Business at New York University (NYU) says value investors have got stuck in the 20th century.</em>\r\n<em>In an interaction with ETNow, he said value and growth investing has become a very lazy categorisation of investing. “The former style lost out to the latter over the last decade. Stocks with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields have been hurt the most,” he said. Often referred to as the \'Dean of Valuation’, Damodaran said as an investor one should not convince oneself that he is right and the rest of the world is wrong. “I think book value has completely lost its meaning. Value investing is not just buying low P/E and price-to-book stocks. I describe valuation as a craft. The Covid-19 crisis has humbled me further. There is so much to learn,” he said.</em>\r\nHe makes an even more pertinent point about Narratives and Numbers, the title of his latest book. He brings out the importance of having a narrative behind the numbers and coming from a valuation expert like him suggests that valuation is simply not a number crunching science. As he himself puts it, it is a craft. In the world of investing we often find a divide – people either believe in the narratives or some who blindly look at the numbers, when the key is perhaps to link the two. As Prof Damodaron put it beautifully elsewhere: <em>“I think of valuation as a bridge between stories and numbers, where every story becomes a number in the valuation and every number in a valuation has a story behind it.” </em>Why, even Robert Shiller, the economist who won the Nobel price for ‘emperical analysis of asset prices’ in 2013, published a book a late last year titled <em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=65e3efa071&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D65e3efa071%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591070072894000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG3Lc8eV5GgXakQEJIW52kp6kS_hA\">“Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events”</a></em>\r\n<em>“Guru Aswath Damordaran, who has just released his book Narrative and Numbers, where he argues that “we would need stories, not mechanical valuations, to truly evaluate companies this year,” said the virus has clearly affected corporate operations and some services will face permanent loss. “Hotels, aviation, global travel have lost revenues. Startups that are into crisis will be snapped up by the biggies,” he said. The ongoing crisis has also hurt companies with high fixed costs like Tata Motors, he said. On the other hand, such a crisis will also produce big players like Amazon. He said that it was the dotcom bust, which gave birth to the Amazon what it is right now, not the boom. “People forget how close Amazon was to getting bankrupt before recovering,” Damodaran, who teaches teaches corporate finance and equity valuation, recalled.”</em>', 'Old style investing doesn\'t work anymore, says Damodaran', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3409-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:40:56', '2020-06-01 06:40:56', '', 3409, 'https://marcellus.in/3409-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3411, 1, '2020-05-31 06:41:42', '2020-05-31 06:41:42', 'The WeWorks fiasco may have been a result of its’ founder Adam Neuman’s shenanigans fueled by Softbank’s megalomania. But it also showed the fundamental weakness of the co-working business model i.e, an asset-liability mismatch with long dated assets in the real estate backed by short term contracts with tenants, a classic recipe for disaster, exacerbated by the current lockdown situation. As people get used to the concept of ‘WFH’, some offices may never come back to full utilisation even when normalcy returns thereby exposing the whole commercial real estate industry to a structural crisis. Naturally, co-working will likely suffer more due to the mismatch. However, in the longer run, co-working or flexible office rentals in general could be a gainer as businesses on the back of the current crisis look to lower fixed costs permanently. Marcellus operates out of one such space as not only do the low fixed costs allow us to offer clients a purely performance-based fee option but also allows us to add space and hence costs only as we grow. This piece in the WIRED brings out the twin dynamic of the near-term existential threat and the longer term opportunity facing the co-working and flexible offices concept.\r\n<em>“Anna’s story reflects the coronavirus-induced existential crisis that the flexible office market is facing. With the majority of tenants working from home in line with government advice, a model based on very short leases is in danger if customers decide to stop renewing memberships.</em>\r\n<em>“We have an acceptance within occupiers that forecasting needs is an incredibly difficult art. It is not a science. Therefore, the long-term lease has been challenged,” says Ben Munn, global head of flexible space at JLL. “There is no doubt that occupiers will only increase their level of demand for flexible options.”</em>\r\n<em>Corporate unwillingness to make 15-year commitments on buildings is ideal for flexible office providers desperate for tenants willing to make commitments measured in years and not months. Someone like WeWork scooping up those businesses is a win-win.</em>\r\n<em>But nowhere is the growing divide between ‘coworking’ and ‘flexible offices’ more apparent than among London’s largest landlords. In its recent annual results, Landsec, a FTSE 100 landlord, lists serviced offices as risky occupiers, but the paragraphs before and after are an ode to a flexible office future. Mirroring fellow FTSE 100 landlord British Land, Landsec launched its own flexible office brand, Myo, last year with the intention of avoiding coworking completely, focusing instead on one to three-year leases for corporate clients. In other words, an industry notorious for papering over gigantic losses by attracting waves of endless venture capital with skate ramps and flowing beer taps has a new wave of operators for whom caution and balance sheets matter.”</em>', 'As WeWorks lie empty, coworking spaces face their day of reckoning', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'as-weworks-lie-empty-coworking-spaces-face-their-day-of-reckoning', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:42:53', '2020-06-01 06:42:53', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3411', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3412, 1, '2020-06-01 06:42:53', '2020-06-01 06:42:53', 'The WeWorks fiasco may have been a result of its’ founder Adam Neuman’s shenanigans fueled by Softbank’s megalomania. But it also showed the fundamental weakness of the co-working business model i.e, an asset-liability mismatch with long dated assets in the real estate backed by short term contracts with tenants, a classic recipe for disaster, exacerbated by the current lockdown situation. As people get used to the concept of ‘WFH’, some offices may never come back to full utilisation even when normalcy returns thereby exposing the whole commercial real estate industry to a structural crisis. Naturally, co-working will likely suffer more due to the mismatch. However, in the longer run, co-working or flexible office rentals in general could be a gainer as businesses on the back of the current crisis look to lower fixed costs permanently. Marcellus operates out of one such space as not only do the low fixed costs allow us to offer clients a purely performance-based fee option but also allows us to add space and hence costs only as we grow. This piece in the WIRED brings out the twin dynamic of the near-term existential threat and the longer term opportunity facing the co-working and flexible offices concept.\r\n<em>“Anna’s story reflects the coronavirus-induced existential crisis that the flexible office market is facing. With the majority of tenants working from home in line with government advice, a model based on very short leases is in danger if customers decide to stop renewing memberships.</em>\r\n<em>“We have an acceptance within occupiers that forecasting needs is an incredibly difficult art. It is not a science. Therefore, the long-term lease has been challenged,” says Ben Munn, global head of flexible space at JLL. “There is no doubt that occupiers will only increase their level of demand for flexible options.”</em>\r\n<em>Corporate unwillingness to make 15-year commitments on buildings is ideal for flexible office providers desperate for tenants willing to make commitments measured in years and not months. Someone like WeWork scooping up those businesses is a win-win.</em>\r\n<em>But nowhere is the growing divide between ‘coworking’ and ‘flexible offices’ more apparent than among London’s largest landlords. In its recent annual results, Landsec, a FTSE 100 landlord, lists serviced offices as risky occupiers, but the paragraphs before and after are an ode to a flexible office future. Mirroring fellow FTSE 100 landlord British Land, Landsec launched its own flexible office brand, Myo, last year with the intention of avoiding coworking completely, focusing instead on one to three-year leases for corporate clients. In other words, an industry notorious for papering over gigantic losses by attracting waves of endless venture capital with skate ramps and flowing beer taps has a new wave of operators for whom caution and balance sheets matter.”</em>', 'As WeWorks lie empty, coworking spaces face their day of reckoning', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3411-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:42:53', '2020-06-01 06:42:53', '', 3411, 'https://marcellus.in/3411-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3413, 1, '2020-05-31 06:44:05', '2020-05-31 06:44:05', 'For most Indians, the first experience of watching the NBA live on TV was in the early nineties with the arrival of cable television. And this coincided with one of most purple patches for a basketball team featuring the greatest basketball player and the greatest basketball coach ever. The Chicago Bulls with Michael Jordan’s genius led by Phil Jackson as coach won six NBA titles between 1991-98. And yet this piece is not about  individuals, as neither Jordan nor Jackson came anywhere close to this sort of success elsewhere in their careers. Jo Ellison writes about the leadership and teamwork that shines through in the new Netflix documentary “The Last Dance”. On the lines of “All of nothing’ and ‘The Test’ documenting Man City’s remarkable season in the EPL and the Australian cricket team’s resurgence from the ignominy of sandpaper gate respectively, ‘The Last Dance’ shows the Bulls’ stellar journey as a team.\r\n<em>“…The Last Dance reminds us that leadership means nothing if you don’t command respect. Great coaches, like politicians, are made greater by the diversity of talents in the team. Michael Jordan was monstrously unpleasant to his teammates, but he respected Jackson. He wouldn’t play for anybody else (until he did). Rodman was a law unto himself — until he got on to the court. Jackson’s subsequent career may not have been so rosy, but for that period of the nineties, he and his team could barely do wrong.</em>\r\n<em>Maybe that’s why audiences, exhausted by so many examples of bungled leadership, incompetence and elitism, have embraced this documentary. The Last Dance is a eulogy to the spirit of teamwork and the celebration of talents that lie within. It’s a reminder that real leadership doesn’t require slavish loyalty, nor insist on gibbering rote. It allows for mavericks, mess and massive egos. It celebrates diversity and different points of view. But most of all, it’s totally transparent. You couldn’t fake Jordan’s breathtaking, otherworldly ball skills. And you can’t always slogan your way to a win.”</em>', 'The Last Dance’ and lessons in leadership', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-last-dance-and-lessons-in-leadership', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:44:22', '2020-06-01 06:44:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3413', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3414, 1, '2020-06-01 06:44:05', '2020-06-01 06:44:05', 'For most Indians, the first experience of watching the NBA live on TV was in the early nineties with the arrival of cable television. And this coincided with one of most purple patches for a basketball team featuring the greatest basketball player and the greatest basketball coach ever. The Chicago Bulls with Michael Jordan’s genius led by Phil Jackson as coach won six NBA titles between 1991-98. And yet this piece is not about  individuals, as neither Jordan nor Jackson came anywhere close to this sort of success elsewhere in their careers. Jo Ellison writes about the leadership and teamwork that shines through in the new Netflix documentary “The Last Dance”. On the lines of “All of nothing’ and ‘The Test’ documenting Man City’s remarkable season in the EPL and the Australian cricket team’s resurgence from the ignominy of sandpaper gate respectively, ‘The Last Dance’ shows the Bulls’ stellar journey as a team.\r\n<em>“…The Last Dance reminds us that leadership means nothing if you don’t command respect. Great coaches, like politicians, are made greater by the diversity of talents in the team. Michael Jordan was monstrously unpleasant to his teammates, but he respected Jackson. He wouldn’t play for anybody else (until he did). Rodman was a law unto himself — until he got on to the court. Jackson’s subsequent career may not have been so rosy, but for that period of the nineties, he and his team could barely do wrong.</em>\r\n<em>Maybe that’s why audiences, exhausted by so many examples of bungled leadership, incompetence and elitism, have embraced this documentary. The Last Dance is a eulogy to the spirit of teamwork and the celebration of talents that lie within. It’s a reminder that real leadership doesn’t require slavish loyalty, nor insist on gibbering rote. It allows for mavericks, mess and massive egos. It celebrates diversity and different points of view. But most of all, it’s totally transparent. You couldn’t fake Jordan’s breathtaking, otherworldly ball skills. And you can’t always slogan your way to a win.”</em>', 'The Last Dance’ and lessons in leadership', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3413-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:44:05', '2020-06-01 06:44:05', '', 3413, 'https://marcellus.in/3413-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3415, 1, '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '<div>One of the key reasons to publish <em>‘Three longs and three shorts’</em> is that in a world with information overload, any means to separate the signal from the noise can make a meaningful difference to our understanding of the world around us. This is perhaps the most common problem all of us face when it comes to continuous learning and a problem that is growing exponentially. In this blog, Michael Simmons helps us with a framework to assess how we choose what information to consume. First, he identifies the source of the problem:\r\n<em>“Although we think of information overload as one big problem, it actually consists of four problems that are each getting exponentially worse, and that together add up to one big crisis - Content Shock, Echo Chambers, Constant Distraction and FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).</em>\r\n<strong><em>Content Shock: </em></strong><em>With the advent of online publishing and social media, the amount of knowledge available to us is expanding so fast that none of us can possibly keep up. Meanwhile, more content is added to the pile every second of every day. The gap between this total collective human knowledge and our time to consume it grows larger every second…The problem: Much new information and many new skills we could learn are out there, but they’re so buried that we don’t even know they exist.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Echo Chambers: </em></strong><em>As groups grow in size, they become less stable and more diverse, eventually fracturing into subgroups…Each group lives in its own echo chamber, which it believes is the “true” reality, and it fights to maintain this belief by demonizing other groups. And in an age of social media and targeted, personalized content, these echo chambers become even more insular (see The Filter Bubble for more on this), as we’re exposed to less and less information outside our own chosen groups.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Constant Distraction: </em></strong><em>Our physical and virtual environments are surrounded by more and more content — whether editorial, advertising, or “fake news.” This content is marketed specifically to our own inclinations, which proves a powerful distraction that can keep us from pursuing more useful information or our own goals.</em>\r\n<strong><em>FOMO</em></strong><em>: Too many good options combined with not enough foreknowledge on which is best means we’re constantly second-guessing our choices.”</em>\r\nThe solution he proposes is three pronged. First, to focus on only information that has the potential to transform your life or what he calls breakthrough knowledge. And handling social media is a crucial part of this solution i.e, where we proactively choose what information we consume rather than just consuming what is pushed our way by artificial intelligence driven digital marketing bots.\r\n<em>“People who learn to access breakthrough knowledge quickly while minimizing the noise have a huge advantage over others. These people are living in a veritable information cornucopia with lots of juicy fruit. This is the underrated skill.</em>\r\n<em>The only way to make this potential info-apocalypse into a utopia is to change our approach to media from a reactive to proactive one. We cannot passively have faith in the stream on our news feeds, default settings, and notifications to guide us. The companies that control these do not have our best interests in mind, and they have broken the public trust. These feeds are designed for one thing: Keep your attention for as long as possible in the short-term and long-term. This business model is fundamentally conflicted with our own life goals.</em>\r\n<em>Breakthrough knowledge, on the other hand, challenges our fundamental beliefs about how the world works or introduces a new lens through which to see the world. It sticks with us. Identifying potential breakthrough knowledge is actually fairly easy. There is a question that I ask myself before I consume any media that works as an incredible filter. I simply ask:</em>\r\n<strong><em>Does this have the potential to fundamentally change my life?</em></strong>\r\n<em>This power question helps me avoid mindlessly consuming content because it has a good title, shows up in my newsfeed, and just sounds sort of interesting.</em>\r\n<em>Elon Musk: “It is very important to actively seek out and listen very carefully to negative feedback. This is something that people tend to avoid, because it is painful. I think that this is a very common mistake”</em>\r\n<em>Disconfirming evidence — evidence that proves your existing ideas wrong — is exponentially more valuable than confirming evidence. Scientists throughout history have realized this. Science grows by what is proven wrong, not what is proven right. One piece of disconfirming evidence can be worth a million pieces of confirming evidence just like one breakthrough knowledge book can be worth more than 100 incremental knowledge books.”</em>\r\nThe second tool Simmons recommends is the use of mental models to assimilate information coming our way. Simmons presents an interesting way of ranking sources of information based on its power: Tweets, Blogs, Books, Book summaries, Field Summaries and finally Mental Models.\r\n<em>“Mental models are representations of phenomena that have been observed across time, across fields of study, and across domains of life. In my opinion, they deliver the most knowledge value because:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>The knowledge they impart is much more condensed than book summaries or even field summaries.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They retain their value over time (and even increase it).</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>They are broadly applicable across fields.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>One of my favorite mental models, for example, is the 80/20 Rule: the idea that 20 percent of efforts or input causes 80 percent of results or output. This rule applies to business, creativity, relationships, health, and many more domains.</em>\r\n<em>Another example of a mental model is Opportunity Cost, which is the value of the choice of a best alternative cost while making a decision. This model is valuable when making decisions across your entire life, because it encourages you to reflect on what potential alternatives to a decision might be. It prevents you from going with the first choice that comes to your head.</em>\r\n<em>When you learn mental models, you begin to see the underlying patterns at work in every area of life, and it becomes much easier to spot the signal in the noise.”</em>\r\nThe third tool is build a learning aptitude i.e, learning how to learn systematically:\r\n<em>“Learning how to learn is the bundle of skills that ultimately helps us find breakthrough knowledge and apply it to our life in order to get a result in the least amount of time. Few people even realize that learning how to learn is its own distinct skill set. As a result, they don’t improve.</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the scientific method in order to identify high quality information.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the value of diverse knowledge….People Who Have “Too Many Interests” Are More Likely To Be Successful According To Research.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Understanding the cognitive biases that lead to us trusting information we shouldn’t (e.g., confirmation bias, backfire effect, Dunning-Kruger Effect, halo effect, ingroup bias)”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'While Everyone Is Distracted By Social Media, Successful People Double Down On An Underrated Skill', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3406-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '2020-06-01 06:47:42', '', 3406, 'https://marcellus.in/3406-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3440, 1, '2020-06-07 16:05:55', '2020-06-07 16:05:55', '', 'Know Your 4C Fund Manager - Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'know-your-4c-fund-manager-motilal-oswal-private-wealth-management', '', '', '2020-07-08 06:11:45', '2020-07-08 06:11:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3440', 0, 'video', '', 0),
(3442, 1, '2020-06-08 04:37:06', '2020-06-08 04:37:06', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>An analysis of BSE Smallcap’s performance over CY10-19 indicates that sharper falls (drawdowns) during market downturns and higher frequency of such falls are key reasons for its relative underperformance vs Nifty and BSE500. Therefore, the need to protect capital in a downturn is equally, if not more, important than chasing returns. Put simply, compounding from a larger base consistently generates significantly better returns than compounding at a faster pace but on a much smaller base. Given that our Little Champs portfolio not only generates higher returns than BSE Smallcaps, it also has much lower drawdowns, our portfolio appears to be on the right path.</strong></p>\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of our Little Champs Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.</p>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3512 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"378\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3443 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"378\" />\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong><u>Minimising risks is central to making returns in small caps</u></strong></p>\r\nFrom December 2009 to December 2019, the BSE Smallcap index has delivered a total return CAGR of 6.3% compared to the Nifty’s 10.4% and BSE500’s 10.2% over the same period (these returns include dividends &amp; buybacks). While the BSE Smallcap has had periods of relative outperformance against these larger cap indices over this ten-year period, such outperformance has not bridged the deficit created by:\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li><strong>Much sharper falls for BSE Smallcap during market downturns</strong> – the maximum drawdown for BSE <b>Smallcap</b> has been much sharper at 49% between December 2009-December <b>2019</b> compared to 25% for BSE500 and 22% for Nifty. Furthermore, as highlighted in exhibit 2 below BSE Smallcap fall has been much sharper than Nifty during periods of market downturns; and</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Relatively higher frequency of ups and downs</strong> – BSE small cap index fell by more than 5% MoM for 22 months between December 2009 to December 2020 compared to 10 months for Nifty and 12 months for BSE 500.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3444 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"349\" />\r\n\r\nIn other words, we believe the key reasons for BSE Smallcap’s underperformance relative to Nifty and BSE500 have been its much sharper drawdowns and much higher volatility.\r\n\r\n<strong>Understanding how drawdown and volatility impact portfolio returns</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Why minimising drawdowns is important?</u></strong>\r\n\r\nIn the investment world, drawdown is a measure of decline in the value of portfolio (or any individual stock) from its peak value to its trough value over a given period of time. Simply put, drawdown means an erosion in the portfolio value. Hence higher drawdown leaves us with lower capital to generate future returns.  In other words, one need to generate significantly higher returns to regain the original investment value (or make positive returns) which becomes more and more punitive with declining capital base. This is explained in a simple way in the below exhibit 3.\r\n\r\nFurthermore, sharper drawdowns also negate all the returns investors may have generated previously. For instance, if a portfolio which is compounding at 20% p.a. for 4 years experiences a drawdown of 50% in the 5<sup>th</sup> year, the  portfolio value will drop to a level at the start of the first year. Please refer to exhibit 4 below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3506 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter3-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"257\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Why reducing volatility is important?</u></strong>\r\n\r\nVolatility by definition means the rate of divergence around the mean return. Hence, theoretically it is possible that higher volatility does not necessarily mean ‘negative returns’. However practically in the investment world, more often than not, higher volatilities imply frequent periods of negative returns and hence negative impact on portfolio value as explained under the drawdown section above. This is also illustrated in a simple example below. All the three portfolios have similar average return over the 10-year period. But Portfolio 1 with the lowest volatility ends up generating the maximum value at the end of the 10<sup>th</sup> year – though it has lower rise during good periods it is able to maintain resilience (protect capital) during market downturns and hence generate better overall portfolio returns.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3508 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"416\" /><u></u>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>How we crush the drawdown and volatility risks in our Little Champs portfolio?</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Key reasons for BSE Smallcap’s higher drawdowns and volatility vs NSE and BSE500</strong>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basis our analysis of BSE Smallcap’s performance over the years, we believe following are the key factors driving the higher risks (volatility and drawdowns) and thereby the underperformance in small caps in general:</p>\r\n\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>Small firms’ revenues and profits tend to be more volatile than those of larger firms due to dependence on: (a) a single line of business; (b) a small group of people running the show; and (c) limited free float &amp; trading volumes which accentuates the good or bad impacts of any macro/company specific developments.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>Most small caps are unable to survive the periods where the business cycle turns downwards. In fact, a cyclical economic downturn often structurally damages small cap companies (for example – as they enter a persistent cycle of indebtedness)</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\r\n 	<li>Further, in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7812fa9760&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D7812fa9760%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEyWxL7VM7l6XramZrgzFbD4XXlTA\">December 2019</a> Little Champs newsletter “The importance of accounting quality”, we highlighted the preponderance of fraudulent companies (shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation) in the small caps space. Such frauds typically come to the fore during bear markets. As can be seen in the exhibit 6 below, of the small caps (market cap between Rs1bn-35bn) at December 2009, only a small portion i.e. 22% have been able to generate healthy returns (&gt;15% p.a.). On the other hand, a majority of the companies nearly i.e. 50% have not been able to generate positive returns between December 2009-December 2020 – mostly companies with issues around corporate governance and capital allocation.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3509 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter5-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"160\" />\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong><u>Marcellus’ investment process to minimise Smallcap risks</u></strong></p>\r\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the very nature of smallcaps, it is difficult to control the risk mentioned under point 1) above i.e. those associated with size and liquidity. However, it is possible to minimise the risks mentioned under points 2) (weak financials) and 3) (corporate governance) above through a rigorous investment process and philosophy.</p>\r\nMinimising risks associated with smallcap investing is central to our Little Champs investment process. As highlighted in some of our earlier newsletters, our Little Champs investment process is broadly divided into two parts:\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li>Use of quantitative frameworks to help shorten the large universe of more than 1,000 small caps companies into a researchable universe of 40 companies; and</li>\r\n 	<li>Conducting deep dive research &amp; diligence on these 40 companies to build a final portfolio of around 15 stocks. For more details on our quantitative frameworks and bottom-up research, please refer our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2ee01c45f4&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2ee01c45f4%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFiwn6G9YNeyQdNKeWCKXuD2yZTQw\">January 2020</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=353b48d1d8&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D353b48d1d8%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQOxL0xKwATcaotJKgko8fi9eOBA\">May 2020</a> newsletters.</li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3510 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"363\" />\r\n\r\nThe result of the above process is that we arrive at a shortlist of companies with clean accounts and which have demonstrated ability to grow efficiently (by maintaining pricing and balance sheet discipline), generate cash and redeploy that cash to grow further. In other words, these companies carry much lower risks around corporate governance and around financing than a typical small cap firm.\r\n\r\nThis is also reflected in lower standard deviation and drawdown for both the backtest of our Little Champs algorithm (i.e. just using the quantitative framework without any bottom-up research) and the performance of the active Little Champs portfolio as shown in the exhibits below.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3511 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"667\" height=\"304\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Investment implications: Minimising risks is more important than chasing returns</u></strong>\r\n\r\nTherefore, while chasing returns seems to be the most common route followed by investors, the need of protecting portfolio value in a downturn is equally, if not more, important.  This is particularly true for long term wealth creation and given the higher volatility witnessed in equity markets in the recent years. Compounding from a larger base in most times generate higher returns than compounding at a faster pace from a much smaller base. Understanding and acknowledging the importance of downside protection has significant investment implications in terms of the choices of the stocks and sectors and thereby investment returns.\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>', 'Risk Minimisation is Central to Making Returns in Small Caps', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'risk-minimisation-is-central-to-making-returns-in-small-caps', '', '', '2020-07-03 05:36:09', '2020-07-03 05:36:09', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3442', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
(3450, 1, '2020-06-08 08:51:25', '2020-06-08 08:51:25', '', 'Portfolio Management Services', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '1864-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-08 08:51:25', '2020-06-08 08:51:25', '', 1864, 'https://marcellus.in/1864-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3489, 1, '2020-06-07 04:24:00', '2020-06-07 04:24:00', '<div>If one thing scares us more than staring at the P/E multiples of low quality companies it is investing in companies with low/no barriers to entry. The inability to stay away from “hot sectors” is a common challenge for investors across the world. Two years ago setting up NBFCs was all the rage in India. Until last year investing in co-working spaces was seen as cool thing to do. Right now investing in pharma is all the rage because apparently due to Covid more pharma manufacturing will shift from China to India.\r\nThe reason trend based investing usually ends in tears is that without barriers to entry, a company can’t make money regardless of how popular the product is. This is why Indian telecom providers and India’s airlines have perpetually struggled to generate an ROCE above their cost of capital. The following colourful story from the Politico describes how the world’s hottest/coolest/hippest marijuana provider imploded because it could not erect barriers to entry: <em>“MedMen was faring worse than most, but the rest of industry was also coming down hard from its high. There were too many entrepreneurs trying to blaze the same path as Bierman, competing for a pool of legal sales that was not growing fast enough, with too much regulatory uncertainty hanging over them. In the year leading up to March 21, the United States Marijuana Index, which tracks top cannabis stocks, fell by more than four-fifths.”</em>\r\nThe story is told in the format of a Hollywood movie and is super entertaining. MedMan was founded by Adam Bierman and Andrew Modlin in California around 2013. Inspite of burning through hundreds of millions of dollars of funding, the company could not build barriers to entry because:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from spending money on the personal security &amp; lifestyle of the promoters:</strong> <em>“The (class action) suit alleged excessive spending on security—including installing a panic room in Bierman’s home—as well as using company funds on the likes of a custom Tesla SUV, “pearl-white” Cadillac Escalades, and a salary for Bierman’s personal marriage counselor….Bierman bought a $4.7 million home on the water in Marina Del Rey. Around the same time, Modlin purchased a house in West Hollywood for $3.9 million. The modernist structure came with a swimming pool, a cabana and an outdoor fireplace.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from spending heavily on lobbyists, fixers, PR, advertising, branding, etc:</strong> <em>“It hired lobbyists, shaped legislation and funded legalization campaigns. It had the backing of powerful politicians. It had a partnership with Gwyneth Paltrow’s chi-chi lifestyle brand, Goop, and an award-winning ad directed by Spike Jonze. It had a marketing campaign dedicated to ending the “stoner” stigma, part of its plan to make cannabis inviting to affluent “Chardonnay Moms” from coast to coast. And for those who still embraced the stoner ethos, it acquired the rights to the Woodstock brand, too.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from hiring expensive staff from well known firms:</strong> “It hired executives from the ranks of corporate American icons like Walmart and Apple, as well as edgy tech firms like Grindr, the gay hookup app.”</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from raising loads of money from marque investors:</strong> <em>“From there, MedMen was on its way to the big time. Chris Leavy, a former executive at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, came on as co-chairman of the firm’s private-equity funds, and MedMen announced it was setting out to raise $500 million from private-equity investors. Leavy, who has since left the board, declined to comment…. In early 2018, Toronto-based Captor Capital invested $30 million for a 3 percent stake, implying that MedMen was among the first, if not the first, U.S. cannabis firm with a ten-figure value.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from rapid growth:</strong> <em>“At its height, MedMen seemed to be everywhere. It snapped up a retail location in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District and secured preliminary approvals to open a shop near Boston’s Fenway Park. It opened a store in Beverly Hills and acquired a pot business in Arizona. In Nevada, it opened a cultivation facility in Reno, opened stores in Vegas, and started a delivery service.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Barriers to entry arise from patient hard work done over several years, often decades, by focused, skilful professionals. It is boring, high intensity work something that most people are not cut for: <em>“They wanted to be in control of their own manufacturing and cultivation,” recalled a former MedMen executive, who said the founders’ ambitions to grow high-quality marijuana, a skill that takes decades to hone, outmatched their capabilities. “They couldn’t grow a fucking tomato plant.””</em></div>', 'Lavish Parties, Greedy Pols and Panic Rooms: How the \'Apple of Pot\' Collapsed', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lavish-parties-greedy-pols-and-panic-rooms-how-the-apple-of-pot-collapsed', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:29:51', '2020-06-09 04:29:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3489', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3490, 1, '2020-06-09 04:27:07', '2020-06-09 04:27:07', '<div>If one thing scares us more than staring at the P/E multiples of low quality companies it is investing in companies with low/no barriers to entry. The inability to stay away from “hot sectors” is a common challenge for investors across the world. Two years ago setting up NBFCs was all the rage in India. Until last year investing in co-working spaces was seen as cool thing to do. Right now investing in pharma is all the rage because apparently due to Covid more pharma manufacturing will shift from China to India.\r\nThe reason trend based investing usually ends in tears is that without barriers to entry, a company can’t make money regardless of how popular the product is. This is why Indian telecom providers and India’s airlines have perpetually struggled to generate an ROCE above their cost of capital. The following colourful story from the Politico describes how the world’s hottest/coolest/hippest marijuana provider imploded because it could not erect barriers to entry: <em>“MedMen was faring worse than most, but the rest of industry was also coming down hard from its high. There were too many entrepreneurs trying to blaze the same path as Bierman, competing for a pool of legal sales that was not growing fast enough, with too much regulatory uncertainty hanging over them. In the year leading up to March 21, the United States Marijuana Index, which tracks top cannabis stocks, fell by more than four-fifths.”</em>\r\nThe story is told in the format of a Hollywood movie and is super entertaining. MedMan was founded by Adam Bierman and Andrew Modlin in California around 2013. Inspite of burning through hundreds of millions of dollars of funding, the company could not build barriers to entry because:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from spending money on the personal security &amp; lifestyle of the promoters:</strong> <em>“The (class action) suit alleged excessive spending on security—including installing a panic room in Bierman’s home—as well as using company funds on the likes of a custom Tesla SUV, “pearl-white” Cadillac Escalades, and a salary for Bierman’s personal marriage counselor….Bierman bought a $4.7 million home on the water in Marina Del Rey. Around the same time, Modlin purchased a house in West Hollywood for $3.9 million. The modernist structure came with a swimming pool, a cabana and an outdoor fireplace.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from spending heavily on lobbyists, fixers, PR, advertising, branding, etc:</strong> <em>“It hired lobbyists, shaped legislation and funded legalization campaigns. It had the backing of powerful politicians. It had a partnership with Gwyneth Paltrow’s chi-chi lifestyle brand, Goop, and an award-winning ad directed by Spike Jonze. It had a marketing campaign dedicated to ending the “stoner” stigma, part of its plan to make cannabis inviting to affluent “Chardonnay Moms” from coast to coast. And for those who still embraced the stoner ethos, it acquired the rights to the Woodstock brand, too.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from hiring expensive staff from well known firms:</strong> “It hired executives from the ranks of corporate American icons like Walmart and Apple, as well as edgy tech firms like Grindr, the gay hookup app.”</li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from raising loads of money from marque investors:</strong> <em>“From there, MedMen was on its way to the big time. Chris Leavy, a former executive at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, came on as co-chairman of the firm’s private-equity funds, and MedMen announced it was setting out to raise $500 million from private-equity investors. Leavy, who has since left the board, declined to comment…. In early 2018, Toronto-based Captor Capital invested $30 million for a 3 percent stake, implying that MedMen was among the first, if not the first, U.S. cannabis firm with a ten-figure value.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Barriers to entry do not come from rapid growth:</strong> <em>“At its height, MedMen seemed to be everywhere. It snapped up a retail location in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District and secured preliminary approvals to open a shop near Boston’s Fenway Park. It opened a store in Beverly Hills and acquired a pot business in Arizona. In Nevada, it opened a cultivation facility in Reno, opened stores in Vegas, and started a delivery service.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Barriers to entry arise from patient hard work done over several years, often decades, by focused, skilful professionals. It is boring, high intensity work something that most people are not cut for: <em>“They wanted to be in control of their own manufacturing and cultivation,” recalled a former MedMen executive, who said the founders’ ambitions to grow high-quality marijuana, a skill that takes decades to hone, outmatched their capabilities. “They couldn’t grow a fucking tomato plant.””</em></div>', 'Lavish Parties, Greedy Pols and Panic Rooms: How the \'Apple of Pot\' Collapsed', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3489-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:27:07', '2020-06-09 04:27:07', '', 3489, 'https://marcellus.in/3489-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3491, 1, '2020-06-07 04:31:03', '2020-06-07 04:31:03', 'Few people can claim to understand the world of investment management as well as Charley Ellis does. Here’s why: Charley has been an investment consultant to large institutional investors for their manager selection for almost five decades; he has been a prolific writer on the subject including the biblical <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d7eb93515&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1d7eb93515%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE19arLnAumwJ2L_QUPS9lETlHDLg\">“Winning the loser’s game”</a> and also a deep dive into what’s arguably the most successful investment management firm in history - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=274e778520&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D274e778520%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGsxKjkfOcqw5Q45wSepRUzXpohhw\">Capital Group</a>;  he has taught investing courses in Yale and Harvard; he chaired the investment committee at the world’s most celebrated university endowment at Yale along with the legendary David Swensen and last but not the least he served on the board of the world’s most disruptive investment management firm – Vanguard. Here’s one hour of sheer wisdom from Charley in an insightful podcast with Morningstar. You could listen to it or read the transcript or see the excerpts below of topics he touches on, particularly inspiring for what we are trying to build here at Marcellus:\r\n<strong>On his favourite subject of why active investing is still a loser’s game:</strong>\r\n<em>“…over a 10-year period 85% of actively managed funds fall short of what they chose as their benchmark. And when they fall short, they fall short by a great deal more than those who happen to win by. And if you say, \"Well, I\'m going to take the 15% that do well--that they ought to be some pretty good guys there.\" They\'re talented people. But what you\'ll find is about 85% of that 15% will fall short in the next decade. So, as I say, it\'s tough out there.”</em>\r\n<strong>On where active investing could still work:</strong>\r\n<em>“…the Chinese market is still dominated by individual investors. And it\'s amazing how individual investors in China are very attracted to seeing a stock price going up and saying, “I know what\'s going to happen, it\'s going to go up again the next day.” And so long as you\'ve got a substantial number of amateur or retail investors, who are governed not by rigorous logic and quantitative analysis and objectivity, but are working on a more spiritual, emotional, and sometimes visual basis, then you\'ve got an opportunity. Because if somebody is doing their activity and trading for reasons that are not appropriate to what a skillful stock market practitioner would do, skillful practitioner is going to have a really good opportunity to do better than that particular individual or to that market that\'s dominated by individuals.”</em>\r\n<strong>On whether there is a recipe to build a successful investment management firm:</strong>\r\n<em>“First, you would have to have developed an exceptionally independent way of thinking. It probably would be helpful if you had one or two very close-in colleagues because if you\'re a very independent thinker, you may be doing \"too independent\" and go off the deep end. But very independent thinker. You\'d have to be exceedingly good in quantitative analysis. And you\'d have to enjoy the game that includes long periods of nothing going on. So, deer hunter skills would be appropriate. Or maybe deep-sea fishing would be appropriate. But long periods when there\'s nothing going on and not needing to do something. You\'d have to be very, very self-disciplined, so that when you did make a mistake, you would catch it fairly soon, and when you had made a mistake, you would stay with your process long enough.”</em>\r\n<strong>On why character is the most important trait to look for in a fund manager:</strong>\r\n<em>“..And if you look back over the last 20, 30, 40 years, which of the firms that have done really well, year after year after year after year, I promise you that the single governing characteristic is character. And some people call it culture. That\'s fine by me. Some people call it integrity. That\'s fine by me. But it\'s one of those key words that describes what we all look for in President of United States; what we all look for in leader of our companies; what we all look for in the people that our kids marry. So, it\'s really worth all the time and effort and attention that it takes to learn it.</em>\r\n<em>Personally, as you know, I had a long wonderful 17 years on the Yale Investment Committee working with and for David Swensen, and I think it\'s one of the most beautiful experiences anybody in the investment world could possibly have to get up close and see exactly how they\'ve done it. And one part of it was when due diligence was on for an investment manager, the quality of their digging, backgrounding, backgrounding, backgrounding, digging was at least as high, I would say, higher than we usually have in this country when the President of United States is considering somebody for Secretary of Defense or Secretary of Treasury. They go into any possibility that there might be any difficulty anywhere. Same sort of thing for Yale\'s investments and the same sort of thing, I believe, is the single best investment the client can make in getting a great relationship with an outstanding investment manager.</em>\r\n<em>Candidly, if you said, \"I have to get somebody who\'s smart\"--that\'s so easy. There is a lot of really smart people. Even worse than that, there are a lot of really smart people, and some of them don\'t have anything like character. They\'re really terrible. Bernie Madoff was a charming guy and very bright, and he had terrific connections. And he was the SEC\'s go-to-person for complex questions about the securities industry, a marvelous person in so many ways, and probably the biggest skunk or a cheat or a crook, any of us know about.”</em>\r\n<strong>On why people won’t quit active investing:</strong>\r\n<em>“How in the world you\'re going to get people to give up the most interesting game, most interesting line of work, highest paid compensation, where you can work--I\'ve got a friend who decided on his 100th birthday, he said, “Charley, I\'m going to do myself a big favor. It\'s my 100th birthday, and I\'m going to stop working so hard. I\'m going to cut out Saturday, only going to work five days a week.” I laugh at myself. Early 80s. What am I doing? I\'m working as hard as I can. I put in 60, 70, 80 hours a week, usually 70 or 80. Gee, that\'s interesting. “Why don\'t you cut back?\" Because it\'s so darn interesting….. Well, it\'s fascinating work, intellectually challenging, it\'s spiritually challenging. And it\'s competition with the best in the world. That\'s part of it, you can\'t change that. And the compensation, as I say, is terrific. Can\'t change that. And it\'s not just that year-to-year compensation--it\'s that extra 10, 20, 30 years that you can continue to practice the same profession, marvelous. Why somebody going to give that up?</em>\r\n<strong>On David Swensen:</strong>\r\n<em>“…anybody who could be that disciplined and creative, and I would emphasize both the word discipline and creative, is someone that all the rest of us would want to pay attention to, even though we might find it difficult to reproduce what he can do.</em>\r\n<em>…One of the things that he has been doing at the same time is building and establishing a network of friends who, like me--I would rather do David Swensen a favor than anybody I know. A favor that he would accept, that he would say, “Thank you. I appreciate that.” That would to me be a thrill. Have I been able to do that? No. Would I love to do it? You bet, I would. And so would large, large, large numbers of other people all over the world. Sure, the investment managers that have worked with Yale have exactly that feeling. But many, many other people have exactly that feeling also. So, scuttlebutt network, David Swensen’s got far and away the world\'s best, and it vibrates.”</em>', 'Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still A Loser\'s Game', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'charley-ellis-why-active-investing-is-still-a-losers-game', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:32:48', '2020-06-09 04:32:48', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3491', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3492, 1, '2020-06-09 04:32:48', '2020-06-09 04:32:48', 'Few people can claim to understand the world of investment management as well as Charley Ellis does. Here’s why: Charley has been an investment consultant to large institutional investors for their manager selection for almost five decades; he has been a prolific writer on the subject including the biblical <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=1d7eb93515&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D1d7eb93515%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE19arLnAumwJ2L_QUPS9lETlHDLg\">“Winning the loser’s game”</a> and also a deep dive into what’s arguably the most successful investment management firm in history - <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=274e778520&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D274e778520%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGsxKjkfOcqw5Q45wSepRUzXpohhw\">Capital Group</a>;  he has taught investing courses in Yale and Harvard; he chaired the investment committee at the world’s most celebrated university endowment at Yale along with the legendary David Swensen and last but not the least he served on the board of the world’s most disruptive investment management firm – Vanguard. Here’s one hour of sheer wisdom from Charley in an insightful podcast with Morningstar. You could listen to it or read the transcript or see the excerpts below of topics he touches on, particularly inspiring for what we are trying to build here at Marcellus:\r\n<strong>On his favourite subject of why active investing is still a loser’s game:</strong>\r\n<em>“…over a 10-year period 85% of actively managed funds fall short of what they chose as their benchmark. And when they fall short, they fall short by a great deal more than those who happen to win by. And if you say, \"Well, I\'m going to take the 15% that do well--that they ought to be some pretty good guys there.\" They\'re talented people. But what you\'ll find is about 85% of that 15% will fall short in the next decade. So, as I say, it\'s tough out there.”</em>\r\n<strong>On where active investing could still work:</strong>\r\n<em>“…the Chinese market is still dominated by individual investors. And it\'s amazing how individual investors in China are very attracted to seeing a stock price going up and saying, “I know what\'s going to happen, it\'s going to go up again the next day.” And so long as you\'ve got a substantial number of amateur or retail investors, who are governed not by rigorous logic and quantitative analysis and objectivity, but are working on a more spiritual, emotional, and sometimes visual basis, then you\'ve got an opportunity. Because if somebody is doing their activity and trading for reasons that are not appropriate to what a skillful stock market practitioner would do, skillful practitioner is going to have a really good opportunity to do better than that particular individual or to that market that\'s dominated by individuals.”</em>\r\n<strong>On whether there is a recipe to build a successful investment management firm:</strong>\r\n<em>“First, you would have to have developed an exceptionally independent way of thinking. It probably would be helpful if you had one or two very close-in colleagues because if you\'re a very independent thinker, you may be doing \"too independent\" and go off the deep end. But very independent thinker. You\'d have to be exceedingly good in quantitative analysis. And you\'d have to enjoy the game that includes long periods of nothing going on. So, deer hunter skills would be appropriate. Or maybe deep-sea fishing would be appropriate. But long periods when there\'s nothing going on and not needing to do something. You\'d have to be very, very self-disciplined, so that when you did make a mistake, you would catch it fairly soon, and when you had made a mistake, you would stay with your process long enough.”</em>\r\n<strong>On why character is the most important trait to look for in a fund manager:</strong>\r\n<em>“..And if you look back over the last 20, 30, 40 years, which of the firms that have done really well, year after year after year after year, I promise you that the single governing characteristic is character. And some people call it culture. That\'s fine by me. Some people call it integrity. That\'s fine by me. But it\'s one of those key words that describes what we all look for in President of United States; what we all look for in leader of our companies; what we all look for in the people that our kids marry. So, it\'s really worth all the time and effort and attention that it takes to learn it.</em>\r\n<em>Personally, as you know, I had a long wonderful 17 years on the Yale Investment Committee working with and for David Swensen, and I think it\'s one of the most beautiful experiences anybody in the investment world could possibly have to get up close and see exactly how they\'ve done it. And one part of it was when due diligence was on for an investment manager, the quality of their digging, backgrounding, backgrounding, backgrounding, digging was at least as high, I would say, higher than we usually have in this country when the President of United States is considering somebody for Secretary of Defense or Secretary of Treasury. They go into any possibility that there might be any difficulty anywhere. Same sort of thing for Yale\'s investments and the same sort of thing, I believe, is the single best investment the client can make in getting a great relationship with an outstanding investment manager.</em>\r\n<em>Candidly, if you said, \"I have to get somebody who\'s smart\"--that\'s so easy. There is a lot of really smart people. Even worse than that, there are a lot of really smart people, and some of them don\'t have anything like character. They\'re really terrible. Bernie Madoff was a charming guy and very bright, and he had terrific connections. And he was the SEC\'s go-to-person for complex questions about the securities industry, a marvelous person in so many ways, and probably the biggest skunk or a cheat or a crook, any of us know about.”</em>\r\n<strong>On why people won’t quit active investing:</strong>\r\n<em>“How in the world you\'re going to get people to give up the most interesting game, most interesting line of work, highest paid compensation, where you can work--I\'ve got a friend who decided on his 100th birthday, he said, “Charley, I\'m going to do myself a big favor. It\'s my 100th birthday, and I\'m going to stop working so hard. I\'m going to cut out Saturday, only going to work five days a week.” I laugh at myself. Early 80s. What am I doing? I\'m working as hard as I can. I put in 60, 70, 80 hours a week, usually 70 or 80. Gee, that\'s interesting. “Why don\'t you cut back?\" Because it\'s so darn interesting….. Well, it\'s fascinating work, intellectually challenging, it\'s spiritually challenging. And it\'s competition with the best in the world. That\'s part of it, you can\'t change that. And the compensation, as I say, is terrific. Can\'t change that. And it\'s not just that year-to-year compensation--it\'s that extra 10, 20, 30 years that you can continue to practice the same profession, marvelous. Why somebody going to give that up?</em>\r\n<strong>On David Swensen:</strong>\r\n<em>“…anybody who could be that disciplined and creative, and I would emphasize both the word discipline and creative, is someone that all the rest of us would want to pay attention to, even though we might find it difficult to reproduce what he can do.</em>\r\n<em>…One of the things that he has been doing at the same time is building and establishing a network of friends who, like me--I would rather do David Swensen a favor than anybody I know. A favor that he would accept, that he would say, “Thank you. I appreciate that.” That would to me be a thrill. Have I been able to do that? No. Would I love to do it? You bet, I would. And so would large, large, large numbers of other people all over the world. Sure, the investment managers that have worked with Yale have exactly that feeling. But many, many other people have exactly that feeling also. So, scuttlebutt network, David Swensen’s got far and away the world\'s best, and it vibrates.”</em>', 'Charley Ellis: Why Active Investing Is Still A Loser\'s Game', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3491-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:32:48', '2020-06-09 04:32:48', '', 3491, 'https://marcellus.in/3491-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3493, 1, '2020-06-07 04:32:55', '2020-06-07 04:32:55', 'This is the third consecutive week we have featured a piece form Michael Simmons, this time a slightly dated 2018 blog on generalists or polymaths. In his book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6cec2b49e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db6cec2b49e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEkngF57Rhy4UZ62-xs-iha1OaSfA\">“Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialised World”</a>, released last year, David Epstein, contested the “10,000 hrs of focussed effort” belief made famous by Malcolm Gladwell in the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2b82114590&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2b82114590%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGp5M4y0dkvixzIIcZ3_3vI68sZuQ\">Outliers</a>. In the context of parenting, Epstein stacked up Roger Federer as an example of someone who played multiple sports even into his late teens as opposed to the specialists\' poster boy – Tiger Woods who picked up the club as a nine month old baby and pursued golf with relentless focus.  My colleague Saurabh Mukherjea expounded on that in his blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=056b59ab5e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D056b59ab5e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7eFbc18qLzGV9ZN007U9qWR4E6g\">“Bruce Lee And The Rise Of The “Generalist””</a>.  In this blog, Michael Simmons highlights whilst history has been peppered with geniuses who have also been polymaths, why the modern era necessitates a generalist approach to success. He uses the T-shaped model to drive home the point of drawing upon a wide array of subjects to be applied in a specific domain to get the best result.\r\n<em>“Jack of all trades, master of none.” </em><em>The </em><em>warning</em><em> against being a generalist has persisted </em><em>for</em> <em>hundreds</em><em> of years in dozens of languages. “Equipped with knives all over, yet none is sharp,” warn people in China. In Estonia, it goes, “Nine trades, the tenth one — hunger.” Yet, many of the most impactful individuals, both contemporary and historical, have been generalists: Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Richard Feynman, Ben Franklin, Thomas Edison, Leonardo Da Vinci, and Marie Curie to name just a few.</em>\r\n<em>If being a generalist was the path to mediocrity, why did the most comprehensive study of the most significant scientists in all of history uncover that 15 of the 20 were polymaths? Newton. Galileo. Aristotle. Kepler. Descartes. Huygens. Laplace. Faraday. Pasteur. Ptolemy. Hooke. Leibniz. Euler. Darwin. Maxwell — all polymaths. If being a generalist was so ineffective, why are the founders of the five largest companies in the world — Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffett, Larry Page, and Jeff Bezos — all polymaths? Are these legends just genius anomalies? Or are they people we could and should imitate in order to be successful in a modern knowledge economy?</em>\r\n<em>…</em><em>Elon Musk has combined an understanding of physics, engineering, programming, design, manufacturing, and business to create several multibillion-dollar companies in completely different fields.”</em>\r\nHe quotes Steven Johnson who wrote about Charles Darwin…<em>”The idea itself drew on a coffeehouse of different disciplines: to solve the mystery, he had to think like a naturalist, a marine biologist, and a geologist all at once. He had to understand the life cycle of coral colonies, and observe the tiny evidence of organic sculpture on the rocks of the Keeling Islands; he had to think on the immense time scales of volcanic mountains rising and falling into the sea… To understand the idea in its full complexity required a kind of probing intelligence, willing to think across those different disciplines and scales.”</em>\r\nHe lays down several advantages for the polymath. One of them is to be able to combine two or more atypical skills where you are merely competent but the combination is a world class skill set. He cites the example of <em>“Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, one of the most popular comic strips of all time, wasn’t the funniest person in the world. He wasn’t the best cartoonist in the world, and he wasn’t the most experienced employee (he was only in his 20s when he started Dilbert). But by combining his humor and illustration skills while focusing on business culture, he became the best in the world in his niche.”</em>\r\nThe modern era is also conducive to pick up diverse skills given the ease of access to knowledge and learning. <em>“It’s easier and faster than ever to become competent in a new skill…. there is an abundance of free or affordable content from the world’s top experts in every medium you can think of. Need a community and expert coaching? There are now hundreds of thousands of online courses and billions of online videos. This is the golden era for people who value learning, are willing to invest in themselves, and who are disciplined enough to take action on their own.”</em>\r\nMore importantly, it helps make yourself future-proof:\r\n<em>“Make Yourself Anti-Fragile…Being a polymath will be the new normal, and polymaths who synthesize diverse skills to create breakthrough innovations and solve complex problems will have a huge impact. Generalists who fail to synthesize their knowledge into value for others stand to flounder in their career, perhaps having an impressive encyclopedic knowledge, but no real impact.</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, specialists risk getting trapped by their success. They build up a narrow skill set and reputation and become highly paid for it. But their careers are fragile. As their professions disappear or evolve, it becomes almost impossible to switch without having to start over.</em>\r\n<em>Polymaths, on the other hand, are what Nassim Taleb calls “anti-fragile.” Changes to the environment make them stronger. As new paradigms of business emerge or their passions grow, they can quickly combine their existing skill sets in a myriad of ways.”</em>\r\nSimmons concludes by highlighting the use of mental models by which one can connect diverse sets of discipline together, a common trait among polymaths.', 'People Who Have “Too Many Interests” Are More Likely To Be Successful According To Research', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'people-who-have-too-many-interests-are-more-likely-to-be-successful-according-to-research', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:35:47', '2020-06-09 04:35:47', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3493', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3494, 1, '2020-06-09 04:34:16', '2020-06-09 04:34:16', 'This is the third consecutive week we have featured a piece form Michael Simmons, this time a slightly dated 2018 blog on generalists or polymaths. In his book <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b6cec2b49e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db6cec2b49e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEkngF57Rhy4UZ62-xs-iha1OaSfA\">“Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialised World”</a>, released last year, David Epstein, contested the “10,000 hrs of focussed effort” belief made famous by Malcolm Gladwell in the <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2b82114590&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2b82114590%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGp5M4y0dkvixzIIcZ3_3vI68sZuQ\">Outliers</a>. In the context of parenting, Epstein stacked up Roger Federer as an example of someone who played multiple sports even into his late teens as opposed to the specialists\' poster boy – Tiger Woods who picked up the club as a nine month old baby and pursued golf with relentless focus.  My colleague Saurabh Mukherjea expounded on that in his blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=056b59ab5e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D056b59ab5e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591760686615000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7eFbc18qLzGV9ZN007U9qWR4E6g\">“Bruce Lee And The Rise Of The “Generalist””</a>.  In this blog, Michael Simmons highlights whilst history has been peppered with geniuses who have also been polymaths, why the modern era necessitates a generalist approach to success. He uses the T-shaped model to drive home the point of drawing upon a wide array of subjects to be applied in a specific domain to get the best result.\r\n<em>“Jack of all trades, master of none.” </em><em>The </em><em>warning</em><em> against being a generalist has persisted </em><em>for</em> <em>hundreds</em><em> of years in dozens of languages. “Equipped with knives all over, yet none is sharp,” warn people in China. In Estonia, it goes, “Nine trades, the tenth one — hunger.” Yet, many of the most impactful individuals, both contemporary and historical, have been generalists: Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, Richard Feynman, Ben Franklin, Thomas Edison, Leonardo Da Vinci, and Marie Curie to name just a few.</em>\r\n<em>If being a generalist was the path to mediocrity, why did the most comprehensive study of the most significant scientists in all of history uncover that 15 of the 20 were polymaths? Newton. Galileo. Aristotle. Kepler. Descartes. Huygens. Laplace. Faraday. Pasteur. Ptolemy. Hooke. Leibniz. Euler. Darwin. Maxwell — all polymaths. If being a generalist was so ineffective, why are the founders of the five largest companies in the world — Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Warren Buffett, Larry Page, and Jeff Bezos — all polymaths? Are these legends just genius anomalies? Or are they people we could and should imitate in order to be successful in a modern knowledge economy?</em>\r\n<em>…</em><em>Elon Musk has combined an understanding of physics, engineering, programming, design, manufacturing, and business to create several multibillion-dollar companies in completely different fields.”</em>\r\nHe quotes Steven Johnson who wrote about Charles Darwin…<em>”The idea itself drew on a coffeehouse of different disciplines: to solve the mystery, he had to think like a naturalist, a marine biologist, and a geologist all at once. He had to understand the life cycle of coral colonies, and observe the tiny evidence of organic sculpture on the rocks of the Keeling Islands; he had to think on the immense time scales of volcanic mountains rising and falling into the sea… To understand the idea in its full complexity required a kind of probing intelligence, willing to think across those different disciplines and scales.”</em>\r\nHe lays down several advantages for the polymath. One of them is to be able to combine two or more atypical skills where you are merely competent but the combination is a world class skill set. He cites the example of <em>“Scott Adams, the creator of Dilbert, one of the most popular comic strips of all time, wasn’t the funniest person in the world. He wasn’t the best cartoonist in the world, and he wasn’t the most experienced employee (he was only in his 20s when he started Dilbert). But by combining his humor and illustration skills while focusing on business culture, he became the best in the world in his niche.”</em>\r\nThe modern era is also conducive to pick up diverse skills given the ease of access to knowledge and learning. <em>“It’s easier and faster than ever to become competent in a new skill…. there is an abundance of free or affordable content from the world’s top experts in every medium you can think of. Need a community and expert coaching? There are now hundreds of thousands of online courses and billions of online videos. This is the golden era for people who value learning, are willing to invest in themselves, and who are disciplined enough to take action on their own.”</em>\r\nMore importantly, it helps make yourself future-proof:\r\n<em>“Make Yourself Anti-Fragile…Being a polymath will be the new normal, and polymaths who synthesize diverse skills to create breakthrough innovations and solve complex problems will have a huge impact. Generalists who fail to synthesize their knowledge into value for others stand to flounder in their career, perhaps having an impressive encyclopedic knowledge, but no real impact.</em>\r\n<em>Meanwhile, specialists risk getting trapped by their success. They build up a narrow skill set and reputation and become highly paid for it. But their careers are fragile. As their professions disappear or evolve, it becomes almost impossible to switch without having to start over.</em>\r\n<em>Polymaths, on the other hand, are what Nassim Taleb calls “anti-fragile.” Changes to the environment make them stronger. As new paradigms of business emerge or their passions grow, they can quickly combine their existing skill sets in a myriad of ways.”</em>\r\nSimmons concludes by highlighting the use of mental models by which one can connect diverse sets of discipline together, a common trait among polymaths.', 'People Who Have “Too Many Interests” Are More Likely To Be Successful According To Research', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3493-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:34:16', '2020-06-09 04:34:16', '', 3493, 'https://marcellus.in/3493-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3495, 1, '2020-06-07 04:36:00', '2020-06-07 04:36:00', 'A much needed economic boost could come from the unlikeliest of sources – a housing boom. As both employees and companies are realising the efficacy of working from home, it is likely to become the norm even beyond the lockdown. More and more companies are making it a permanent feature for a significant part of the workforce to work remotely full time. Indian IT giant TCS has already committed to a 25/25 model which involves only 25% of its workforce working out of its offices by 2025. Of course, silicon valley which is used to remote working for almost two decades is not going to be left behind.\r\n<em>“Facebook has joined companies including Twitter and Square in saying it will begin allowing select employees to work remotely full time, expecting 50% of its workforce to be remote within five to 10 years. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said about 75% of his employees expressed some interest in moving to a different city if they could work remotely.</em>\r\n<em>Myriad large corporations are considering permanent shifts in workers’ location. Columbus, Ohio-based insurance company Nationwide has announced a permanent transition to a hybrid work model for many employees. Even investment banks with big Midtown Manhattan offices such as Barclays have signaled long-term changes to location strategy.”</em>\r\nThis article brings out the second order effects of this development. Employees no longer need to live close to their workplace, one of the prime reasons for congestion in cities. Instead, employees can work from the suburbs or even remote towns. The US is already witnessing a surge in home buying interest:\r\n<em>“Redfin said this month overall buyer demand on its platform has already surpassed prepandemic levels, while Zillow says traffic to its listings is currently up 40% year over year…</em>\r\n<em>..</em> <em>Zillow Chief Executive Rich Barton has coined the coming changes in where and how workers live their lives “the great reshuffling.” Redfin’s lead economist Taylor Marr says his company is registering stronger demand in terms of homes under contract in places like Seattle and Austin, Texas, where there has been spillover from bigger cities. These are tech hubs where a lot of remote work was already happening and they have been more insulated in terms of layoffs, he said.</em>\r\n<em>Zillow’s chief economist, Svenja Gudell, says she doesn’t expect residents to cut the cord entirely from their cities, but that they may opt for an “extension cord” into the suburbs where they can get more space, more outdoor areas and, of course, a home office.”</em>\r\nIndian cities could do with some decongestion. The Indian economy could surely do with a housing boom given the industry\'s contribution to jobs and the investment cycle.', 'Remote Work Could Spark Housing Boom in Suburbs, Smaller Cities', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'remote-work-could-spark-housing-boom-in-suburbs-smaller-cities', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:52:48', '2020-06-09 04:52:48', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3495', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3496, 1, '2020-06-09 04:45:02', '2020-06-09 04:45:02', 'A much needed economic boost could come from the unlikeliest of sources – a housing boom. As both employees and companies are realising the efficacy of working from home, it is likely to become the norm even beyond the lockdown. More and more companies are making it a permanent feature for a significant part of the workforce to work remotely full time. Indian IT giant TCS has already committed to a 25/25 model which involves only 25% of its workforce working out of its offices by 2025. Of course, silicon valley which is used to remote working for almost two decades is not going to be left behind.\r\n<em>“Facebook has joined companies including Twitter and Square in saying it will begin allowing select employees to work remotely full time, expecting 50% of its workforce to be remote within five to 10 years. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said about 75% of his employees expressed some interest in moving to a different city if they could work remotely.</em>\r\n<em>Myriad large corporations are considering permanent shifts in workers’ location. Columbus, Ohio-based insurance company Nationwide has announced a permanent transition to a hybrid work model for many employees. Even investment banks with big Midtown Manhattan offices such as Barclays have signaled long-term changes to location strategy.”</em>\r\nThis article brings out the second order effects of this development. Employees no longer need to live close to their workplace, one of the prime reasons for congestion in cities. Instead, employees can work from the suburbs or even remote towns. The US is already witnessing a surge in home buying interest:\r\n<em>“Redfin said this month overall buyer demand on its platform has already surpassed prepandemic levels, while Zillow says traffic to its listings is currently up 40% year over year…</em>\r\n<em>..</em> <em>Zillow Chief Executive Rich Barton has coined the coming changes in where and how workers live their lives “the great reshuffling.” Redfin’s lead economist Taylor Marr says his company is registering stronger demand in terms of homes under contract in places like Seattle and Austin, Texas, where there has been spillover from bigger cities. These are tech hubs where a lot of remote work was already happening and they have been more insulated in terms of layoffs, he said.</em>\r\n<em>Zillow’s chief economist, Svenja Gudell, says she doesn’t expect residents to cut the cord entirely from their cities, but that they may opt for an “extension cord” into the suburbs where they can get more space, more outdoor areas and, of course, a home office.”</em>\r\nIndian cities could do with some decongestion. The Indian economy could surely do with a housing boom given the industry\'s contribution to jobs and the investment cycle.', 'Remote Work Could Spark Housing Boom in Suburbs, Smaller Cities', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3495-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:45:02', '2020-06-09 04:45:02', '', 3495, 'https://marcellus.in/3495-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3497, 1, '2020-06-07 04:45:11', '2020-06-07 04:45:11', 'Despite the lockdown, most people we speak to claim to have busier than normal schedules, thanks to Zoom or the ease of video conferencing in general. However, it turns out it isn’t that easy. People are complaining of <em>‘Zoom fatigue’. </em>Whilst we no longer have to fight the commute fatigue, the back to back endless Zoom calls are causing a different sort of strain on people’s brains. Libby Sander and Oliver Bauman, who are assistant professors of Organisational Behaviour and Psychology respectively, explain why this might be the case and what we can do to fight it:\r\n<strong><em>1. We miss out on a lot of non-verbal communication: </em></strong><em>Our feelings and attitudes are largely conveyed by nonverbal signals such as facial expressions, the tone and pitch of the voice, gestures, posture and the distance between the communicators. In a face-to-face meeting, we process these cues largely automatically and we can still listen to the speaker at the same time. But on a video chat, we need to work harder to process nonverbal cues. Paying more attention to these consumes a lot of energy. Our minds are together when our bodies feel that we’re not. That dissonance — which causes people to have conflicting feelings — is exhausting. Also, in face-to-face meetings we rely heavily on nonverbal cues to make emotional judgements, such as assessing whether a statement is credible. We automatically take in information such as: Is the person fidgeting? Predominantly relying on verbal information to infer emotions is tiring.</em>\r\n<strong><em>2. What if the kids run in?: </em></strong><em>We feel anxious about our remote workspace and events that might make us look bad to our colleagues. Will my Zoom background suddenly fail, leaving my hoarding tendencies on full display?</em>\r\n<strong><em>3. No water-cooler catch-ups: </em></strong><em>In person, we often meet people on the way to a meeting to catch up on issues or discuss our views before going in. We get coffee, and the simple act of relocating to a different room is energizing. But at home, we might be just working on a task and then we get on to Zoom, often without taking breaks. Also, walking is known to improve creativity, highlighting the importance of discussions while walking to meetings, moving around during the meeting, and holding the now popular stand-up meetings. But we can’t walk on Zoom calls.</em>\r\n<strong><em>4. Looking at our own face is stressful: </em></strong><em>The heightened emphasis on facial cues and the ability to see oneself can also act as a stressor. Viewing our own negative facial expressions, like anger and disgust, can lead to more intense emotions than when viewing similar facial expressions in others.</em>\r\n<strong><em>5. Are you listening or are you frozen?: </em></strong><em>Silence in real-life conversation is important and creates a natural rhythm. But in a video call, silence makes you anxious about the technology. Even a 1.2 second delay in responding online made people perceive the person talking as less friendly or focused. In addition, frustration with people turning their microphones on and off, lagging connections, and background noise mean the meeting rarely flows as smoothly.</em>\r\n<strong>What can we do to fight the fatigue:</strong>\r\n<em>“Firstly, consider whether the meeting needs to happen. In some cases, shared document platforms with detailed comments can reduce the need to meet.</em>\r\n<em>Limiting the number of Zoom meetings in a day can assist, as well as using messaging and email.</em>\r\n<em>And sometimes, the phone is better. On the phone, we only have to concentrate on one voice and can walk around which can help thinking.”</em>', 'Zoom fatigue is real — here’s why video calls are so draining', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'zoom-fatigue-is-real-heres-why-video-calls-are-so-draining', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:48:36', '2020-06-09 04:48:36', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3497', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3498, 1, '2020-06-09 04:48:36', '2020-06-09 04:48:36', 'Despite the lockdown, most people we speak to claim to have busier than normal schedules, thanks to Zoom or the ease of video conferencing in general. However, it turns out it isn’t that easy. People are complaining of <em>‘Zoom fatigue’. </em>Whilst we no longer have to fight the commute fatigue, the back to back endless Zoom calls are causing a different sort of strain on people’s brains. Libby Sander and Oliver Bauman, who are assistant professors of Organisational Behaviour and Psychology respectively, explain why this might be the case and what we can do to fight it:\r\n<strong><em>1. We miss out on a lot of non-verbal communication: </em></strong><em>Our feelings and attitudes are largely conveyed by nonverbal signals such as facial expressions, the tone and pitch of the voice, gestures, posture and the distance between the communicators. In a face-to-face meeting, we process these cues largely automatically and we can still listen to the speaker at the same time. But on a video chat, we need to work harder to process nonverbal cues. Paying more attention to these consumes a lot of energy. Our minds are together when our bodies feel that we’re not. That dissonance — which causes people to have conflicting feelings — is exhausting. Also, in face-to-face meetings we rely heavily on nonverbal cues to make emotional judgements, such as assessing whether a statement is credible. We automatically take in information such as: Is the person fidgeting? Predominantly relying on verbal information to infer emotions is tiring.</em>\r\n<strong><em>2. What if the kids run in?: </em></strong><em>We feel anxious about our remote workspace and events that might make us look bad to our colleagues. Will my Zoom background suddenly fail, leaving my hoarding tendencies on full display?</em>\r\n<strong><em>3. No water-cooler catch-ups: </em></strong><em>In person, we often meet people on the way to a meeting to catch up on issues or discuss our views before going in. We get coffee, and the simple act of relocating to a different room is energizing. But at home, we might be just working on a task and then we get on to Zoom, often without taking breaks. Also, walking is known to improve creativity, highlighting the importance of discussions while walking to meetings, moving around during the meeting, and holding the now popular stand-up meetings. But we can’t walk on Zoom calls.</em>\r\n<strong><em>4. Looking at our own face is stressful: </em></strong><em>The heightened emphasis on facial cues and the ability to see oneself can also act as a stressor. Viewing our own negative facial expressions, like anger and disgust, can lead to more intense emotions than when viewing similar facial expressions in others.</em>\r\n<strong><em>5. Are you listening or are you frozen?: </em></strong><em>Silence in real-life conversation is important and creates a natural rhythm. But in a video call, silence makes you anxious about the technology. Even a 1.2 second delay in responding online made people perceive the person talking as less friendly or focused. In addition, frustration with people turning their microphones on and off, lagging connections, and background noise mean the meeting rarely flows as smoothly.</em>\r\n<strong>What can we do to fight the fatigue:</strong>\r\n<em>“Firstly, consider whether the meeting needs to happen. In some cases, shared document platforms with detailed comments can reduce the need to meet.</em>\r\n<em>Limiting the number of Zoom meetings in a day can assist, as well as using messaging and email.</em>\r\n<em>And sometimes, the phone is better. On the phone, we only have to concentrate on one voice and can walk around which can help thinking.”</em>', 'Zoom fatigue is real — here’s why video calls are so draining', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3497-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:48:36', '2020-06-09 04:48:36', '', 3497, 'https://marcellus.in/3497-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3499, 1, '2020-06-09 04:52:48', '2020-06-09 04:52:48', 'A much needed economic boost could come from the unlikeliest of sources – a housing boom. As both employees and companies are realising the efficacy of working from home, it is likely to become the norm even beyond the lockdown. More and more companies are making it a permanent feature for a significant part of the workforce to work remotely full time. Indian IT giant TCS has already committed to a 25/25 model which involves only 25% of its workforce working out of its offices by 2025. Of course, silicon valley which is used to remote working for almost two decades is not going to be left behind.\r\n<em>“Facebook has joined companies including Twitter and Square in saying it will begin allowing select employees to work remotely full time, expecting 50% of its workforce to be remote within five to 10 years. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said about 75% of his employees expressed some interest in moving to a different city if they could work remotely.</em>\r\n<em>Myriad large corporations are considering permanent shifts in workers’ location. Columbus, Ohio-based insurance company Nationwide has announced a permanent transition to a hybrid work model for many employees. Even investment banks with big Midtown Manhattan offices such as Barclays have signaled long-term changes to location strategy.”</em>\r\nThis article brings out the second order effects of this development. Employees no longer need to live close to their workplace, one of the prime reasons for congestion in cities. Instead, employees can work from the suburbs or even remote towns. The US is already witnessing a surge in home buying interest:\r\n<em>“Redfin said this month overall buyer demand on its platform has already surpassed prepandemic levels, while Zillow says traffic to its listings is currently up 40% year over year…</em>\r\n<em>..</em> <em>Zillow Chief Executive Rich Barton has coined the coming changes in where and how workers live their lives “the great reshuffling.” Redfin’s lead economist Taylor Marr says his company is registering stronger demand in terms of homes under contract in places like Seattle and Austin, Texas, where there has been spillover from bigger cities. These are tech hubs where a lot of remote work was already happening and they have been more insulated in terms of layoffs, he said.</em>\r\n<em>Zillow’s chief economist, Svenja Gudell, says she doesn’t expect residents to cut the cord entirely from their cities, but that they may opt for an “extension cord” into the suburbs where they can get more space, more outdoor areas and, of course, a home office.”</em>\r\nIndian cities could do with some decongestion. The Indian economy could surely do with a housing boom given the industry\'s contribution to jobs and the investment cycle.', 'Remote Work Could Spark Housing Boom in Suburbs, Smaller Cities', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3495-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-09 04:52:48', '2020-06-09 04:52:48', '', 3495, 'https://marcellus.in/3495-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3502, 1, '2020-06-17 06:45:56', '2020-06-17 06:45:56', '<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>An analysis of BSE Smallcap’s performance over CY10-19 indicates that sharper falls (drawdowns) during market downturns and higher frequency of such falls are key reasons for its relative underperformance vs Nifty and BSE500. Therefore, the need to protect capital in a downturn is equally, if not more, important than chasing returns. Put simply, compounding from a larger base consistently generates significantly better returns than compounding at a faster pace but on a much smaller base. Given that our Little Champs portfolio not only generates higher returns than BSE Smallcaps, it also has much lower drawdowns, our portfolio appears to be on the right path.</strong></p>\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\n\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of our Little Champs Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.</p>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3512 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"378\" />\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3443 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"378\" />\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong><u>Minimising risks is central to making returns in small caps</u></strong></p>\nFrom December 2009 to December 2019, the BSE Smallcap index has delivered a total return CAGR of 6.3% compared to the Nifty’s 10.4% and BSE500’s 10.2% over the same period (these returns include dividends &amp; buybacks). While the BSE Smallcap has had periods of relative outperformance against these larger cap indices over this ten-year period, such outperformance has not bridged the deficit created by:\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li><strong>Much sharper falls for BSE Smallcap during market downturns</strong> – the maximum drawdown for BSE <b>Smallcap</b> has been much sharper at 49% between December 2009-December <b>2019</b> compared to 25% for BSE500 and 22% for Nifty. Furthermore, as highlighted in exhibit 2 below BSE Smallcap fall has been much sharper than Nifty during periods of market downturns; and</li>\n 	<li><strong>Relatively higher frequency of ups and downs</strong> – BSE small cap index fell by more than 5% MoM for 22 months between December 2009 to December 2020 compared to 10 months for Nifty and 12 months for BSE 500.</li>\n</ul>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3444 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"349\" />\n\nIn other words, we believe the key reasons for BSE Smallcap’s underperformance relative to Nifty and BSE500 have been its much sharper drawdowns and much higher volatility.\n\n<strong>Understanding how drawdown and volatility impact portfolio returns</strong>\n\n<strong><u>Why minimising drawdowns is important?</u></strong>\n\nIn the investment world, drawdown is a measure of decline in the value of portfolio (or any individual stock) from its peak value to its trough value over a given period of time. Simply put, drawdown means an erosion in the portfolio value. Hence higher drawdown leaves us with lower capital to generate future returns.  In other words, one need to generate significantly higher returns to regain the original investment value (or make positive returns) which becomes more and more punitive with declining capital base. This is explained in a simple way in the below exhibit 3.\n\nFurthermore, sharper drawdowns also negate all the returns investors may have generated previously. For instance, if a portfolio which is compounding at 20% p.a. for 4 years experiences a drawdown of 50% in the 5<sup>th</sup> year, the  portfolio value will drop to a level at the start of the first year. Please refer to exhibit 4 below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3506 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter3-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"665\" height=\"257\" />\n\n<strong><u>Why reducing volatility is important?</u></strong>\n\nVolatility by definition means the rate of divergence around the mean return. Hence, theoretically it is possible that higher volatility does not necessarily mean ‘negative returns’. However practically in the investment world, more often than not, higher volatilities imply frequent periods of negative returns and hence negative impact on portfolio value as explained under the drawdown section above. This is also illustrated in a simple example below. All the three portfolios have similar average return over the 10-year period. But Portfolio 1 with the lowest volatility ends up generating the maximum value at the end of the 10<sup>th</sup> year – though it has lower rise during good periods it is able to maintain resilience (protect capital) during market downturns and hence generate better overall portfolio returns.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3508 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"416\" /><u></u>\n\n<strong><u>How we crush the drawdown and volatility risks in our Little Champs portfolio?</u></strong>\n\n<strong>Key reasons for BSE Smallcap’s higher drawdowns and volatility vs NSE and BSE500</strong>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Basis our analysis of BSE Smallcap’s performance over the years, we believe following are the key factors driving the higher risks (volatility and drawdowns) and thereby the underperformance in small caps in general:</p>\n\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li>Small firms’ revenues and profits tend to be more volatile than those of larger firms due to dependence on: (a) a single line of business; (b) a small group of people running the show; and (c) limited free float &amp; trading volumes which accentuates the good or bad impacts of any macro/company specific developments.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li>Most small caps are unable to survive the periods where the business cycle turns downwards. In fact, a cyclical economic downturn often structurally damages small cap companies (for example – as they enter a persistent cycle of indebtedness)</li>\n</ul>\n<ul style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\n 	<li>Further, in our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=7812fa9760&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D7812fa9760%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEyWxL7VM7l6XramZrgzFbD4XXlTA\">December 2019</a> Little Champs newsletter “The importance of accounting quality”, we highlighted the preponderance of fraudulent companies (shoddy corporate governance and poor capital allocation) in the small caps space. Such frauds typically come to the fore during bear markets. As can be seen in the exhibit 6 below, of the small caps (market cap between Rs1bn-35bn) at December 2009, only a small portion i.e. 22% have been able to generate healthy returns (&gt;15% p.a.). On the other hand, a majority of the companies nearly i.e. 50% have not been able to generate positive returns between December 2009-December 2020 – mostly companies with issues around corporate governance and capital allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3509 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter5-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"160\" />\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong><u>Marcellus’ investment process to minimise Smallcap risks</u></strong></p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Given the very nature of smallcaps, it is difficult to control the risk mentioned under point 1) above i.e. those associated with size and liquidity. However, it is possible to minimise the risks mentioned under points 2) (weak financials) and 3) (corporate governance) above through a rigorous investment process and philosophy.</p>\nMinimising risks associated with smallcap investing is central to our Little Champs investment process. As highlighted in some of our earlier newsletters, our Little Champs investment process is broadly divided into two parts:\n<ol>\n 	<li>Use of quantitative frameworks to help shorten the large universe of more than 1,000 small caps companies into a researchable universe of 40 companies; and</li>\n 	<li>Conducting deep dive research &amp; diligence on these 40 companies to build a final portfolio of around 15 stocks. For more details on our quantitative frameworks and bottom-up research, please refer our <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=2ee01c45f4&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D2ee01c45f4%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFiwn6G9YNeyQdNKeWCKXuD2yZTQw\">January 2020</a> and <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=353b48d1d8&amp;e=1f1bf544de\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D353b48d1d8%26e%3D1f1bf544de&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1591674302936000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQOxL0xKwATcaotJKgko8fi9eOBA\">May 2020</a> newsletters.</li>\n</ol>\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3510 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"363\" />\n\nThe result of the above process is that we arrive at a shortlist of companies with clean accounts and which have demonstrated ability to grow efficiently (by maintaining pricing and balance sheet discipline), generate cash and redeploy that cash to grow further. In other words, these companies carry much lower risks around corporate governance and around financing than a typical small cap firm.\n\nThis is also reflected in lower standard deviation and drawdown for both the backtest of our Little Champs algorithm (i.e. just using the quantitative framework without any bottom-up research) and the performance of the active Little Champs portfolio as shown in the exhibits below.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3511 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"667\" height=\"304\" />\n\n<strong><u>Investment implications: Minimising risks is more important than chasing returns</u></strong>\n\nTherefore, while chasing returns seems to be the most common route followed by investors, the need of protecting portfolio value in a downturn is equally, if not more, important.  This is particularly true for long term wealth creation and given the higher volatility witnessed in equity markets in the recent years. Compounding from a larger base in most times generate higher returns than compounding at a faster pace from a much smaller base. Understanding and acknowledging the importance of downside protection has significant investment implications in terms of the choices of the stocks and sectors and thereby investment returns.\n\n<strong>Regards</strong>\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong>', 'Risk Minimisation is Central to Making Returns in Small Caps', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3442-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-17 06:45:56', '2020-06-17 06:45:56', '', 3442, 'https://marcellus.in/3442-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3512, 1, '2020-06-09 12:07:38', '2020-06-09 12:07:38', '', 'Newsletter1', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter1', '', '', '2020-06-09 12:07:38', '2020-06-09 12:07:38', '', 3442, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
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(3505, 1, '2020-06-09 11:56:38', '2020-06-09 11:56:38', '', 'Newsletter3', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter3', '', '', '2020-06-09 11:56:38', '2020-06-09 11:56:38', '', 3442, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter3.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3519, 1, '2020-06-11 11:43:07', '2020-06-11 11:43:07', '', 'Marcellus PoA (Fillable)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-poa-fillable', '', '', '2020-06-11 11:44:20', '2020-06-11 11:44:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Marcellus-PoA-Fillable.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
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(3510, 1, '2020-06-09 12:00:23', '2020-06-09 12:00:23', '', 'Newsletter6', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter6', '', '', '2020-06-09 12:00:23', '2020-06-09 12:00:23', '', 3442, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter6.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3511, 1, '2020-06-09 12:01:05', '2020-06-09 12:01:05', '', 'Newsletter7', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'newsletter7', '', '', '2020-06-09 12:01:05', '2020-06-09 12:01:05', '', 3442, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Newsletter7.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3514, 1, '2020-06-10 06:21:18', '2020-06-10 06:21:18', '', 'Marcellus PMS - Investor Onboarding Process for Partners V2.0', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-pms-investor-onboarding-process-for-partners-v2-0', '', '', '2020-06-10 06:22:35', '2020-06-10 06:22:35', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Marcellus-PMS-Investor-Onboarding-Process-for-Partners-V2.0.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
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(3516, 1, '2020-06-10 07:45:02', '2020-06-10 07:45:02', '', 'ccp2', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ccp2', '', '', '2020-06-10 07:45:02', '2020-06-10 07:45:02', '', 3397, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/ccp2.png', 0, 'attachment', 'image/png', 0),
(3518, 1, '2020-06-11 11:15:07', '2020-06-11 11:15:07', '', 'IMG20160731200649', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'img20160731200649', '', '', '2020-06-11 11:15:07', '2020-06-11 11:15:07', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/IMG20160731200649.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3580, 1, '2020-06-22 15:53:24', '2020-06-22 15:53:24', 'Marcellus Investment Managers, a SEBI regulated provider of Portfolio Management Services, is looking for a compliance associate for its Secretarial Compliance function. Candidates should have at least two years of post-qualification experience with Company Secretary qualification. Preference will be given to candidates with additional legal qualification (LLB or LLM) and proven experience of compliance with company law, SEBI regulations, vetting contracts and organising financial documentation. Interested candidates can send their CV along with a covering email to <a href=\"mailto:compliance@marcellus.in\">compliance@marcellus.in</a>. All applications should have a standard subject line like “Application for Compliance Associate”.', 'Marcellus is hiring a Compliance Associate with a strong legal background', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-is-hiring-a-compliance-associate-with-a-strong-legal-background', '', '', '2020-06-22 15:53:24', '2020-06-22 15:53:24', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=jobs&#038;p=3580', 0, 'jobs', '', 0),
(3523, 1, '2020-06-15 05:09:37', '2020-06-15 05:09:37', '', 'CCP RI PMS V4.1 (PMS Only)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'ccp-ri-pms-v4-1-pms-only', '', '', '2020-06-15 05:11:06', '2020-06-15 05:11:06', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CCP-RI-PMS-V4.1-PMS-Only.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3524, 1, '2020-06-15 05:15:22', '2020-06-15 05:15:22', '', 'LCP RI PMS V4.1 (PMS Only)', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', 'lcp-ri-pms-v4-1-pms-only', '', '', '2020-06-15 05:15:22', '2020-06-15 05:15:22', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/LCP-RI-PMS-V4.1-PMS-Only.pdf', 0, 'attachment', 'application/pdf', 0),
(3525, 1, '2020-06-14 09:11:21', '2020-06-14 09:11:21', 'One of the most interesting aspects of professional life is that whatever skill is currently the rage – the skill that everybody and their parents want to learn – is highly likely to be a commoditised skill five years hence. Conversely, skills which are not just rare today but also are generally harder to acquire – and these tend to be softer skills which take a very long time to master – are most likely to become incredibly valuable five years hence. We had written on this subject in July 2019 in the context of the hype around big data (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a472430801&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da472430801%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592290597196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3ezhSEm77ntDPjFpQm39dm1G-mg\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />small-data-is-more-important-<wbr />than-big-data/</a>). However, this “Decade of Design” piece from the Editor of Figma is the final word on this subject. The piece brilliantly highlights how design, more than technology, how defines our use and perception of technology.\r\nIt all started a decade ago when, <em>“…As mobile upended the way products were built, designers were called to action. Their expertise made them particularly well-suited to the challenge of distilling complex technical systems to essential interactions. Companies that had previously ran on as little design resources as possible began hiring in spades. (In one memorable run, the IBMs of the world acquired over 35 design agencies in two years.) Silicon Valley, which had long exalted the engineer, finally began to appreciate the power of the designer too.”</em>\r\nThe company which design to the forefront of our lives is, you guessed it, Apple: <em>“The tipping point that transformed design’s role in tech was — what else? — the iPhone. Although Apple technically introduced it last decade (2007), it didn’t enable in-app purchases until 2009 or launch the iPad until 2010. So its biggest effects were felt in the last 10 years, as mobile spread throughout the world, reshaping consumer preferences and the design that powers them. People we spoke with named many different ways the iPhone (and resulting smartphone trend) changed UX/UI design.”</em>\r\nSo why has Apple’s design-led disruption been so influential? What did Steve Jobs spot that no one else could? Actually, lots of things. So that you read the underlying article we won’t give you the full list. Here is an example: <em>“Mobile made everything more complicated. The screens were smaller than on desktop, and more varied in terms of size. They weren’t just clicking buttons with a mouse — they were using their fingers to swipe, tap, and hold, often while in motion. They might be walking, driving, standing in line at the airport…</em>\r\n<em>“Mobile normalized the idea of computing beyond the screen,” said Josh Clark, the creator of the popular running app Couch to 5K and founder of the design studio Big Medium. “Our phones became the main event, the computers we use most throughout the day.”</em>\r\n<em>All these factors meant companies had to make tough decisions about what functionality to prioritize — a task designers were uniquely suited for.”</em>\r\nIn addition, the rise of big data allowed design itself to become data driven: <em>“People used their phones constantly, resulting in what technologist Jon Gold called “infinitely more data than anything we’d seen in 2.5 decades of software development.”</em>\r\n<em>Product teams started running constant A/B tests on UI variations. They’d experiment with button color or text, seeing how it impacted sign ups, purchases, shares, or other behavior. Companies — with Facebook leading the charge — started hiring more designers to power these experiments, and data-driven design became its own discipline.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re constantly nudging stuff for growth, and I don’t remember that being a job 20 years ago,” said May-Li Khoe, former VP of Design at Khan Academy.”</em>\r\nNow, many Silicon Valley gurus feel that design today is where programming was a decade ago i.e. with programming skills being easy to access, with everybody’s servers now on AWS or Azure, with VC funding abundantly available to lots of start-ups, design will be what will make or break a product or an app: <em>“GitHub investor Peter Levine led Andreessen Horowitz’s $100 million Series A in the company. He sees a lot of parallels between programming’s expansion in previous decade and what’s happening in design today.</em>\r\n<em>“Design represents a fundamental shift in competitive advantage,” he said. “Ten-plus years ago it was all about the code. Now it will be about the elegance of design as a first principle of software development.””</em>\r\nNo prizes for guessing what will happen next. Demand for designers is rocketing and then courses for designers will mushroom. Universities like UC Berkeley are following the age-old pattern that we have seen in India for our entire lifetime – once a skills comes into high demand, the educational system starts offering courses in it: <em>“Berkeley\'s moves, although welcomed by students and employers alike, raise an age old debate: Should the job market really dictate education curriculum? May-Li Khoe urged schools developing design programs to take a thoughtful approach (especially in regards to ethics), and not just teach it as an empty skill.</em>\r\n<em>“Both coding and design have many aspects beyond vocational training,” she said. “They can shape how you think, how you see the world, how you create, how you express, how you problem solve.””</em>\r\nJust like you don’t become a great artist by going to a prestigious college, the most successful designers seem to be self-taught: <em>“In 2014, design leader Meng To released a self-published book called Design + Code, which rose to prominence quickly. He eventually hired a team and developed it into a full-blown educational website.</em>\r\n<em>“I think students are starting to realize that in order to be successful, they need to use the latest tools and techniques,” said Meng. “Traditional schools simply don’t work if you are in tech.”</em>\r\n<em>Many UX/UI designers found their way into the career through these kinds of sideways avenues. Front-end programmers read classic design theory books and studied basic usability principles. Graphic designers taught themselves to code. Classically trained graduates from design colleges created websites for local businesses.</em>\r\n<em>It’s no wonder then that as design matures in the industry, it’s splintering into many specializations, from research, to design systems, to UX writing, to growth.”</em>', '\"The Decade of Design”: How the last 10 years transformed design’s role in tech', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-decade-of-design-how-the-last-10-years-transformed-designs-role-in-tech', '', '', '2020-06-15 09:14:26', '2020-06-15 09:14:26', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3525', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3526, 1, '2020-06-15 09:14:26', '2020-06-15 09:14:26', 'One of the most interesting aspects of professional life is that whatever skill is currently the rage – the skill that everybody and their parents want to learn – is highly likely to be a commoditised skill five years hence. Conversely, skills which are not just rare today but also are generally harder to acquire – and these tend to be softer skills which take a very long time to master – are most likely to become incredibly valuable five years hence. We had written on this subject in July 2019 in the context of the hype around big data (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a472430801&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da472430801%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592290597196000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3ezhSEm77ntDPjFpQm39dm1G-mg\">https://marcellus.in/blogs/<wbr />small-data-is-more-important-<wbr />than-big-data/</a>). However, this “Decade of Design” piece from the Editor of Figma is the final word on this subject. The piece brilliantly highlights how design, more than technology, how defines our use and perception of technology.\r\nIt all started a decade ago when, <em>“…As mobile upended the way products were built, designers were called to action. Their expertise made them particularly well-suited to the challenge of distilling complex technical systems to essential interactions. Companies that had previously ran on as little design resources as possible began hiring in spades. (In one memorable run, the IBMs of the world acquired over 35 design agencies in two years.) Silicon Valley, which had long exalted the engineer, finally began to appreciate the power of the designer too.”</em>\r\nThe company which design to the forefront of our lives is, you guessed it, Apple: <em>“The tipping point that transformed design’s role in tech was — what else? — the iPhone. Although Apple technically introduced it last decade (2007), it didn’t enable in-app purchases until 2009 or launch the iPad until 2010. So its biggest effects were felt in the last 10 years, as mobile spread throughout the world, reshaping consumer preferences and the design that powers them. People we spoke with named many different ways the iPhone (and resulting smartphone trend) changed UX/UI design.”</em>\r\nSo why has Apple’s design-led disruption been so influential? What did Steve Jobs spot that no one else could? Actually, lots of things. So that you read the underlying article we won’t give you the full list. Here is an example: <em>“Mobile made everything more complicated. The screens were smaller than on desktop, and more varied in terms of size. They weren’t just clicking buttons with a mouse — they were using their fingers to swipe, tap, and hold, often while in motion. They might be walking, driving, standing in line at the airport…</em>\r\n<em>“Mobile normalized the idea of computing beyond the screen,” said Josh Clark, the creator of the popular running app Couch to 5K and founder of the design studio Big Medium. “Our phones became the main event, the computers we use most throughout the day.”</em>\r\n<em>All these factors meant companies had to make tough decisions about what functionality to prioritize — a task designers were uniquely suited for.”</em>\r\nIn addition, the rise of big data allowed design itself to become data driven: <em>“People used their phones constantly, resulting in what technologist Jon Gold called “infinitely more data than anything we’d seen in 2.5 decades of software development.”</em>\r\n<em>Product teams started running constant A/B tests on UI variations. They’d experiment with button color or text, seeing how it impacted sign ups, purchases, shares, or other behavior. Companies — with Facebook leading the charge — started hiring more designers to power these experiments, and data-driven design became its own discipline.</em>\r\n<em>“They’re constantly nudging stuff for growth, and I don’t remember that being a job 20 years ago,” said May-Li Khoe, former VP of Design at Khan Academy.”</em>\r\nNow, many Silicon Valley gurus feel that design today is where programming was a decade ago i.e. with programming skills being easy to access, with everybody’s servers now on AWS or Azure, with VC funding abundantly available to lots of start-ups, design will be what will make or break a product or an app: <em>“GitHub investor Peter Levine led Andreessen Horowitz’s $100 million Series A in the company. He sees a lot of parallels between programming’s expansion in previous decade and what’s happening in design today.</em>\r\n<em>“Design represents a fundamental shift in competitive advantage,” he said. “Ten-plus years ago it was all about the code. Now it will be about the elegance of design as a first principle of software development.””</em>\r\nNo prizes for guessing what will happen next. Demand for designers is rocketing and then courses for designers will mushroom. Universities like UC Berkeley are following the age-old pattern that we have seen in India for our entire lifetime – once a skills comes into high demand, the educational system starts offering courses in it: <em>“Berkeley\'s moves, although welcomed by students and employers alike, raise an age old debate: Should the job market really dictate education curriculum? May-Li Khoe urged schools developing design programs to take a thoughtful approach (especially in regards to ethics), and not just teach it as an empty skill.</em>\r\n<em>“Both coding and design have many aspects beyond vocational training,” she said. “They can shape how you think, how you see the world, how you create, how you express, how you problem solve.””</em>\r\nJust like you don’t become a great artist by going to a prestigious college, the most successful designers seem to be self-taught: <em>“In 2014, design leader Meng To released a self-published book called Design + Code, which rose to prominence quickly. He eventually hired a team and developed it into a full-blown educational website.</em>\r\n<em>“I think students are starting to realize that in order to be successful, they need to use the latest tools and techniques,” said Meng. “Traditional schools simply don’t work if you are in tech.”</em>\r\n<em>Many UX/UI designers found their way into the career through these kinds of sideways avenues. Front-end programmers read classic design theory books and studied basic usability principles. Graphic designers taught themselves to code. Classically trained graduates from design colleges created websites for local businesses.</em>\r\n<em>It’s no wonder then that as design matures in the industry, it’s splintering into many specializations, from research, to design systems, to UX writing, to growth.”</em>', '\"The Decade of Design”: How the last 10 years transformed design’s role in tech', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3525-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 09:14:26', '2020-06-15 09:14:26', '', 3525, 'https://marcellus.in/3525-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3618, 1, '2020-06-23 12:47:00', '2020-06-23 12:47:00', '', '500x320_link_17', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', '500x320_link_17', '', '', '2020-06-23 12:47:00', '2020-06-23 12:47:00', '', 3617, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/500x320_link_17.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3529, 1, '2020-06-15 10:30:42', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', 'Over the past decade a long held tragic Indian custom, the communal riot, has made a comeback. In parallel, we have now seen protesters on the streets of Hong Kong for most of the past year and now we have the race riots in the US – another country with a tragic history of rioting similar to India’s. So why do these riots happen? Why do otherwise peaceful societies explode into riots every so often?\nThe blog first refutes conventional explanations that riots some crystallise long supressed frustrations &amp; grievances: “After the Los Angeles riot in spring of 1992, almost every pundit in the country took a turn at explaining why riots occur. The conventional wisdom on the subject went something like this: certain dramatic events such as political assassinations or unpopular jury verdicts crystalize riots from social rage. So to understand riots, one must understand and the causes of social rage, usually said to be racism, poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and why people who experience this rage manage it in such a destructive manner. The usual suspects include breakdown of the family, television, and a generalized cultural disorientation.\nAll of these explanations have some truth in them, but are evidently incomplete. First, they explain too much. The predisposing social conditions are with us all the time, yet riots are episodic. Second, they explain too little. Many mob actions, like European soccer riots or the increasingly predictable civil meltdowns in the home cities of National Basketball Association champions, are triggered by good news, and not obviously related to social injustice or existential anomie. Indeed, during the Los Angeles riots, anyone with a TV set could see that jubilation rather than fury best characterized the mood of the people in the streets. It is hard to credit that these exhilarated looters with their new VCR’s and cameras were protesting the jury system, the state of race relations in Southern California, or anything else. They were, in fact, having a party…”\nRiots are a co-ordinated act by many people, most of whom don’t know each other. So how do these people co-ordinate implicitly, rather than explicitly? This is where the role of a specific incident like the killing of George Floyd or China’s actions in HK play a key role: “It is usually the essence of mob formation that the potential members have to know not only where and when to meet but just when to act so that they act in concert. Overt leadership solves the problem; but leadership can often be identified and eliminated by the authority trying to prevent mob action. In this case the mob’s problem is to act in unison without overt leadership, to find some common signal that makes everyone confident that, if he acts on it, he will not be acting alone. The role of “incidents” can thus be seen as a coordinating role; it is a substitute for overt leadership and communication. Without something like an incident, it may be difficult to get action at all,…”\nEven after everybody has gathered at the same place, it is not inevitable that a riot will start because most people are loth to be the person who starts the riot. To be the first-mover is risky because the cops will make punish you especially if no one else follows you lead: “Even in an unstable gathering, the first perpetrator of a misdemeanor is at risk if the police are willing and able to zero in on him. Thus, someone has to serve as a catalyst—a sort of entrepreneur to get things going—in Buford’s account usually by breaking a window (a signal that can be heard by many who do not see it). In civil rights, anti-war or anti-abortion marches, it is probably pretty common to find participants eager to expose themselves to arrest in exchange for the chance to optimize the desired impact of their protest. This sort of self-sacrifice is certainly rare in ordinary riots, where potential rioters’ behavior is consistent, we suppose, with something like the following calculation: “If somebody else gets the riot started, I can participate without much risk. But if I stick my neck out and nobody follows, I’ll be the only one arrested. So I’ll wait for somebody else to go first.” If every would-be rioter reasoned thus, nobody would cast the first stone, and the riot would not ignite. This is a typical free-rider problem, as economists have called it. It is usually sufficient to prevent riots from occurring, even where there is a plentiful supply of disposed participants. Riots await events that surmount the free rider problem. The entrepreneur will throw the first stone when he calculates that the risk that he will be apprehended for doing so has diminished to an acceptable level.”\nThe author concludes by providing a standard operating procedure for a riot which is applicable across countries and over centuries: “This then is the general pattern of riots:\nAn event occurs that signals to would-be rioters that they may soon be able to riot.\nThis event gathers a crowd. A significant percentage of this crowd—though rarely, it seems, the majority—are eager for destruction.\nAn entrepreneurial would-be rioter tests the crowd for the presence of other rioters by engaging in a minor (yet easily perceived) act of carnage.\nOther rioters follow suit, and as the number of offenders grow so does their willingness to take increasingly brazen acts of vandalism, theft, or violence.”', 'On Days of Disorder [Or why do Riots Happen?]', '', 'draft', 'open', 'closed', '', '', '', '', '2020-06-15 10:30:42', '2020-06-15 10:30:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3529', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3530, 1, '2020-06-14 11:54:58', '2020-06-14 11:54:58', '<div>Over the past decade a long held tragic Indian custom, the communal riot, has made a comeback. In parallel, we have now seen protesters on the streets of Hong Kong for most of the past year and now we have the race riots in the US – another country with a tragic history of rioting similar to India’s. So why do these riots happen? Why do otherwise peaceful societies explode into riots every so often?\r\nThe blog first refutes conventional explanations that riots some crystallise long supressed frustrations &amp; grievances: <em>“After the Los Angeles riot in spring of 1992, almost every pundit in the country took a turn at explaining why riots occur. The conventional wisdom on the subject went something like this: certain dramatic events such as political assassinations or unpopular jury verdicts crystalize riots from social rage. So to understand riots, one must understand and the causes of social rage, usually said to be racism, poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and why people who experience this rage manage it in such a destructive manner. The usual suspects include breakdown of the family, television, and a generalized cultural disorientation.</em>\r\n<em>All of these explanations have some truth in them, but are evidently incomplete. First, they explain too much. The predisposing social conditions are with us all the time, yet riots are episodic. Second, they explain too little. Many mob actions, like European soccer riots or the increasingly predictable civil meltdowns in the home cities of National Basketball Association champions, are triggered by good news, and not obviously related to social injustice or existential anomie. Indeed, during the Los Angeles riots, anyone with a TV set could see that jubilation rather than fury best characterized the mood of the people in the streets. It is hard to credit that these exhilarated looters with their new VCR’s and cameras were protesting the jury system, the state of race relations in Southern California, or anything else. They were, in fact, having a party…”</em>\r\nRiots are a co-ordinated act by many people, most of whom don’t know each other. So how do these people co-ordinate implicitly, rather than explicitly? This is where the role of a specific incident like the killing of George Floyd or China’s actions in HK play a key role:<em> “It is usually the essence of mob formation that the potential members have to know not only where and when to meet but just when to act so that they act in concert. Overt leadership solves the problem; but leadership can often be identified and eliminated by the authority trying to prevent mob action. In this case the mob’s problem is to act in unison without overt leadership, to find some common signal that makes everyone confident that, if he acts on it, he will not be acting alone. The role of “incidents” can thus be seen as a coordinating role; it is a substitute for overt leadership and communication. Without something like an incident, it may be difficult to get action at all,…”</em>\r\nEven after everybody has gathered at the same place, it is not inevitable that a riot will start because most people are loth to be the person who starts the riot. To be the first-mover is risky because the cops will make punish you especially if no one else follows you lead: <em>“Even in an unstable gathering, the first perpetrator of a misdemeanor is at risk if the police are willing and able to zero in on him. Thus, someone has to serve as a catalyst—a sort of entrepreneur to get things going—in Buford’s account usually by breaking a window (a signal that can be heard by many who do not see it). In civil rights, anti-war or anti-abortion marches, it is probably pretty common to find participants eager to expose themselves to arrest in exchange for the chance to optimize the desired impact of their protest. This sort of self-sacrifice is certainly rare in ordinary riots, where potential rioters’ behavior is consistent, we suppose, with something like the following calculation: “If somebody else gets the riot started, I can participate without much risk. But if I stick my neck out and nobody follows, I’ll be the only one arrested. So I’ll wait for somebody else to go first.” If every would-be rioter reasoned thus, nobody would cast the first stone, and the riot would not ignite. This is a typical free-rider problem, as economists have called it. It is usually sufficient to prevent riots from occurring, even where there is a plentiful supply of disposed participants. Riots await events that surmount the free rider problem. The entrepreneur will throw the first stone when he calculates that the risk that he will be apprehended for doing so has diminished to an acceptable level.”</em>\r\nThe author concludes by providing a standard operating procedure for a riot which is applicable across countries and over centuries: <em>“This then is the general pattern of riots:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>An event occurs that signals to would-be rioters that they may soon be able to riot.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>This event gathers a crowd. A significant percentage of this crowd—though rarely, it seems, the majority—are eager for destruction.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>An entrepreneurial would-be rioter tests the crowd for the presence of other rioters by engaging in a minor (yet easily perceived) act of carnage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Other rioters follow suit, and as the number of offenders grow so does their willingness to take increasingly brazen acts of vandalism, theft, or violence.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'On Days of Disorder [Or why do Riots Happen?]', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'on-days-of-disorder-or-why-do-riots-happen', '', '', '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3530', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3531, 1, '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '<div>Over the past decade a long held tragic Indian custom, the communal riot, has made a comeback. In parallel, we have now seen protesters on the streets of Hong Kong for most of the past year and now we have the race riots in the US – another country with a tragic history of rioting similar to India’s. So why do these riots happen? Why do otherwise peaceful societies explode into riots every so often?\r\nThe blog first refutes conventional explanations that riots some crystallise long supressed frustrations &amp; grievances: <em>“After the Los Angeles riot in spring of 1992, almost every pundit in the country took a turn at explaining why riots occur. The conventional wisdom on the subject went something like this: certain dramatic events such as political assassinations or unpopular jury verdicts crystalize riots from social rage. So to understand riots, one must understand and the causes of social rage, usually said to be racism, poverty, lack of economic opportunity, and why people who experience this rage manage it in such a destructive manner. The usual suspects include breakdown of the family, television, and a generalized cultural disorientation.</em>\r\n<em>All of these explanations have some truth in them, but are evidently incomplete. First, they explain too much. The predisposing social conditions are with us all the time, yet riots are episodic. Second, they explain too little. Many mob actions, like European soccer riots or the increasingly predictable civil meltdowns in the home cities of National Basketball Association champions, are triggered by good news, and not obviously related to social injustice or existential anomie. Indeed, during the Los Angeles riots, anyone with a TV set could see that jubilation rather than fury best characterized the mood of the people in the streets. It is hard to credit that these exhilarated looters with their new VCR’s and cameras were protesting the jury system, the state of race relations in Southern California, or anything else. They were, in fact, having a party…”</em>\r\nRiots are a co-ordinated act by many people, most of whom don’t know each other. So how do these people co-ordinate implicitly, rather than explicitly? This is where the role of a specific incident like the killing of George Floyd or China’s actions in HK play a key role:<em> “It is usually the essence of mob formation that the potential members have to know not only where and when to meet but just when to act so that they act in concert. Overt leadership solves the problem; but leadership can often be identified and eliminated by the authority trying to prevent mob action. In this case the mob’s problem is to act in unison without overt leadership, to find some common signal that makes everyone confident that, if he acts on it, he will not be acting alone. The role of “incidents” can thus be seen as a coordinating role; it is a substitute for overt leadership and communication. Without something like an incident, it may be difficult to get action at all,…”</em>\r\nEven after everybody has gathered at the same place, it is not inevitable that a riot will start because most people are loth to be the person who starts the riot. To be the first-mover is risky because the cops will make punish you especially if no one else follows you lead: <em>“Even in an unstable gathering, the first perpetrator of a misdemeanor is at risk if the police are willing and able to zero in on him. Thus, someone has to serve as a catalyst—a sort of entrepreneur to get things going—in Buford’s account usually by breaking a window (a signal that can be heard by many who do not see it). In civil rights, anti-war or anti-abortion marches, it is probably pretty common to find participants eager to expose themselves to arrest in exchange for the chance to optimize the desired impact of their protest. This sort of self-sacrifice is certainly rare in ordinary riots, where potential rioters’ behavior is consistent, we suppose, with something like the following calculation: “If somebody else gets the riot started, I can participate without much risk. But if I stick my neck out and nobody follows, I’ll be the only one arrested. So I’ll wait for somebody else to go first.” If every would-be rioter reasoned thus, nobody would cast the first stone, and the riot would not ignite. This is a typical free-rider problem, as economists have called it. It is usually sufficient to prevent riots from occurring, even where there is a plentiful supply of disposed participants. Riots await events that surmount the free rider problem. The entrepreneur will throw the first stone when he calculates that the risk that he will be apprehended for doing so has diminished to an acceptable level.”</em>\r\nThe author concludes by providing a standard operating procedure for a riot which is applicable across countries and over centuries: <em>“This then is the general pattern of riots:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>An event occurs that signals to would-be rioters that they may soon be able to riot.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>This event gathers a crowd. A significant percentage of this crowd—though rarely, it seems, the majority—are eager for destruction.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>An entrepreneurial would-be rioter tests the crowd for the presence of other rioters by engaging in a minor (yet easily perceived) act of carnage.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>Other rioters follow suit, and as the number of offenders grow so does their willingness to take increasingly brazen acts of vandalism, theft, or violence.”</em></li>\r\n</ul>', 'On Days of Disorder [Or why do Riots Happen?]', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3530-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '2020-06-15 11:56:52', '', 3530, 'https://marcellus.in/3530-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3532, 1, '2020-06-14 11:57:06', '2020-06-14 11:57:06', 'One key difference between the current Covid crisis and the 2008 Lehman crisis, often cited by experts, is the fact that the crisis then emanated from the financial system and then hit the real economy whilst this is just a health crisis hurting the real economy through lockdowns temporarily and in fact that the financial system is quite robust. This is supported by the reforms that ensued the Lehman crisis that forced banks to beef up their balance sheets with higher capital buffers, prohibit them from punting on risky assets and be more transparent in their disclosure of holdings of risky assets. However, this piece in The Atlantic shows why the more things change, the more they remain the same. Collateralised Loan Obligations or CLOs are likely to be this crisis’ villains much like CDOs busted the financial system back in 2008.\r\n<em>“A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.</em>\r\n<em>…the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday…[BIS] estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months. Just as easy mortgages fueled economic growth in the 2000s, cheap corporate debt has done so in the past decade, and many companies have binged on it.”</em>\r\nMuch like back then in 2008, the current Fed Chair and the Treasury Secy have waxed sanguine about CLOs saying banks hold only high grade CLOs and therefore not a cause for concern.\r\n<em>“…AAA rating is deceiving. The credit-rating agencies grade CLOs and their underlying debt separately. You might assume that a CLO must contain AAA debt if its top layer is rated AAA. Far from it. Remember: CLOs are made up of loans to businesses that are already in trouble…. 67 percent of the 1,745 borrowers in its leveraged-loan database had a B rating. .. B-rated borrower’s ability to repay a loan is likely to be impaired in adverse business or economic conditions. In other words, two-thirds of those leveraged loans are likely to lose money in economic conditions like the ones we’re presently experiencing</em>\r\n<em>So while the banks restrict their CLO investments mostly to AAA‑rated layers, what they really own is exposure to tens of billions of dollars of high-risk debt. In those highly rated CLOs, you won’t find a single loan rated AAA, AA, or even A.</em>\r\n<em>How can the credit-rating agencies get away with this? The answer is “default correlation,” a measure of the likelihood of loans defaulting at the same time. </em>\r\n<em>..In theory, CLOs are constructed in such a way as to minimize the chances that all of the loans will be affected by a single event or chain of events. The rating agencies award high ratings to those layers that seem sufficiently diversified across industry and geography.”</em>\r\nSo just like in 2008, the myth of the housing market being local and hence unlikely to see corelated defaults across geographies got busted, the nature of the current crisis which is hurting businesses across industries and geographies means that the default correlation excuse for layered CLOs may not pass muster and will likely lead to a mass default of leveraged loans.\r\nThe bulls highlight the Powell-put where the Fed has now included CLOs among the securities that it could buy on its balance sheet if need be, as a downside protection to this risk. The author however reckons the rising populism among politicians may not allow a bailout of the financial system this time around. It remains to be seen if the American political system could afford another bust, both politically as well as economically.', 'The Looming Bank Collapse', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-looming-bank-collapse', '', '', '2020-06-15 11:58:34', '2020-06-15 11:58:34', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3532', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3533, 1, '2020-06-15 11:58:34', '2020-06-15 11:58:34', 'One key difference between the current Covid crisis and the 2008 Lehman crisis, often cited by experts, is the fact that the crisis then emanated from the financial system and then hit the real economy whilst this is just a health crisis hurting the real economy through lockdowns temporarily and in fact that the financial system is quite robust. This is supported by the reforms that ensued the Lehman crisis that forced banks to beef up their balance sheets with higher capital buffers, prohibit them from punting on risky assets and be more transparent in their disclosure of holdings of risky assets. However, this piece in The Atlantic shows why the more things change, the more they remain the same. Collateralised Loan Obligations or CLOs are likely to be this crisis’ villains much like CDOs busted the financial system back in 2008.\r\n<em>“A CLO walks and talks like a CDO, but in place of loans made to home buyers are loans made to businesses—specifically, troubled businesses. CLOs bundle together so-called leveraged loans, the subprime mortgages of the corporate world. These are loans made to companies that have maxed out their borrowing and can no longer sell bonds directly to investors or qualify for a traditional bank loan. There are more than $1 trillion worth of leveraged loans currently outstanding. The majority are held in CLOs.</em>\r\n<em>…the CLO market is bigger than the subprime-mortgage CDO market was in its heyday…[BIS] estimated the overall size of the CDO market in 2007 at $640 billion; it estimated the overall size of the CLO market in 2018 at $750 billion. More than $130 billion worth of CLOs have been created since then, some even in recent months. Just as easy mortgages fueled economic growth in the 2000s, cheap corporate debt has done so in the past decade, and many companies have binged on it.”</em>\r\nMuch like back then in 2008, the current Fed Chair and the Treasury Secy have waxed sanguine about CLOs saying banks hold only high grade CLOs and therefore not a cause for concern.\r\n<em>“…AAA rating is deceiving. The credit-rating agencies grade CLOs and their underlying debt separately. You might assume that a CLO must contain AAA debt if its top layer is rated AAA. Far from it. Remember: CLOs are made up of loans to businesses that are already in trouble…. 67 percent of the 1,745 borrowers in its leveraged-loan database had a B rating. .. B-rated borrower’s ability to repay a loan is likely to be impaired in adverse business or economic conditions. In other words, two-thirds of those leveraged loans are likely to lose money in economic conditions like the ones we’re presently experiencing</em>\r\n<em>So while the banks restrict their CLO investments mostly to AAA‑rated layers, what they really own is exposure to tens of billions of dollars of high-risk debt. In those highly rated CLOs, you won’t find a single loan rated AAA, AA, or even A.</em>\r\n<em>How can the credit-rating agencies get away with this? The answer is “default correlation,” a measure of the likelihood of loans defaulting at the same time. </em>\r\n<em>..In theory, CLOs are constructed in such a way as to minimize the chances that all of the loans will be affected by a single event or chain of events. The rating agencies award high ratings to those layers that seem sufficiently diversified across industry and geography.”</em>\r\nSo just like in 2008, the myth of the housing market being local and hence unlikely to see corelated defaults across geographies got busted, the nature of the current crisis which is hurting businesses across industries and geographies means that the default correlation excuse for layered CLOs may not pass muster and will likely lead to a mass default of leveraged loans.\r\nThe bulls highlight the Powell-put where the Fed has now included CLOs among the securities that it could buy on its balance sheet if need be, as a downside protection to this risk. The author however reckons the rising populism among politicians may not allow a bailout of the financial system this time around. It remains to be seen if the American political system could afford another bust, both politically as well as economically.', 'The Looming Bank Collapse', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3532-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 11:58:34', '2020-06-15 11:58:34', '', 3532, 'https://marcellus.in/3532-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3534, 1, '2020-06-14 11:58:45', '2020-06-14 11:58:45', 'At Marcellus, we embrace the risk minimisation approach to investing which reflects our team’s highly sceptical view of most things in the market. Whilst scepticism does help avoid loss making prospects, it does sometimes lead to passing on potentially money-making opportunities. Here’s a century old investment firm which is taking the opposite approach of positive thinking and has reaped the benefits of that. Baillie Gifford, a Scottish fund management firm, has a rule for its analysts and fund managers that <em>“..for the first 20 minutes, anyone speaking about the idea has to be positive, contributing only to the bullish case of a stock”. </em>Such an approach has helped the firm benefit from the emergence of new tech firms right from rubber plantations that would benefit from the discovery of automobiles in the early 20<sup>th</sup> century to the more recent success of Tesla.\r\n<em>“One of Baillie Gifford’s first trades was to lend to rubber plantations in the Malay Peninsula, believing Henry Ford’s pioneering Model T automobile would revolutionize the world. After World War I, the firm decided America was a compelling “emerging market,” and built positions in railroads including Union Pacific and Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe, eventually investing 20% of its assets in the United States. In the 1960s, it was an early investor in emerging Japan….</em>\r\n<em>…Name a hot coronavirus stock, and Baillie Gifford discovered it and built a massive position before the virus spread. The firm has long-held multibillion-dollar positions in Alibaba, Amazon, Tencent, Microsoft and Netflix. Newer buys include Zoom, Covid-19 vaccine hopeful Moderna, digital health upstart Teladoc and online textbook seller Chegg. It’s a large shareholder in Wayfair, which first plunged as Covid-19 spread, then rose eightfold when sales skyrocketed as quarantined customers made home improvements. Baillie Gifford is also a top holder of surging Covid stocks Grubhub and Peloton, the cycling platform many are using to burn off their “quarantine 15” weight gain.”</em>\r\nThe Forbes article cites three things that have perhaps allowed Baillie Gifford to succeed in this approach. First, this approach like most successful ways of investing necessitates a long term thinking. This is engraved in the minds of its people. They even have an <em>“imposing sign over the entrance [to its headquarters] reads “ACTUAL INVESTORS THINK IN DECADES. NOT QUARTERS.””</em>\r\nSecond, an element of positive thinking like the 20min only bullish case rule <em>“The optimism rule is designed to thwart what the partners believe is a natural tendency for smart people to be skeptical and shoot down ideas prematurely.”</em>\r\nThird, an institutional approach to discovery. Baillie Gifford works very closely with academia spending a lot of its research budget to stay ahead of the curve across fields including investing, philosophy, tech, genetics, etc. It publishes a magazine that shares its findings from its work with academia – one such <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3dce48e09d&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3dce48e09d%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592302650274000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgYYVA7oNf_6chC3qdLSrQKWpUgA\">piece</a> was featured in an earlier edition of Three longs and three shorts.\r\n<em>“While private equity firms and corporate chiefs have spent the past decade making companies lean and leveraged, Baillie Gifford’s stock pickers ignore all that and seek out companies investing in research and technology. They particularly like projects that might not be immediately profitable but could propel the economy a decade from now. Quantitative investing is all the rage, but the Scottish firm is moving in the other direction, trading little and spending its research budget sponsoring literary prizes, investigating new philosophical ideas and endowing university chairs in genetics and computational biology.”</em>\r\nAnd it goes without saying, such an approach dumps valuation tools such as PE multiples. Indeed, a distinct characterstic that differentiates Baillie Gifford from say a VC firm punting on new technology is factoring in ‘staying power’ (a PE multiple doesn’t capture that).\r\n<em>“The firm pays little attention to traditional valuation metrics such as earnings per share or price/earnings ratios. It’s singularly focused on three things—growth, competitive advantage and staying power—and it doesn’t mind parking its investors’ money in stocks that would make value investors seasick. Here’s a sampling: Zoom, the now-ubiquitous video-chat company, which has a price/earnings ratio of 400; e-commerce upstart Shopify, at 50 times revenues; online furniture merchant Wayfair, which lost $1 billion in 2019, double that of the prior year. But these very stocks, plus a good number of the 30 to 50 others held in each of their 14 mutual fund portfolios, are exactly the companies benefiting from existing trends accelerating during the crisis.”</em>\r\nObviously, this approach is beset with setbacks. So, it does require a positive approach, conviction and long term thinking.<em> “When the internet stock bubble popped in 2000, Baillie Gifford suffered a setback, but as investors fled companies like Amazon, the firm backed Jeff Bezos’ vision. It was Amazon’s remarkable resilience and success that birthed the firm’s think-happy-thoughts-first, be-critical-later approach. Its timing was perfect.”</em>\r\nEven during the current Covid crisis, the company is taking a positive approach : <em>““One of the things we feel is absolutely incumbent on us at this moment is to encourage the companies we back to be brave,”….Baillie Gifford has gone so far as to mail letters to its portfolio companies, encouraging CEOs to forestall layoffs and cost cutting. It even offered new capital so they could maintain their growth plans.”</em>\r\nOne aspect where Marcellus shares a common belief with Baillie Gifford is the big getting bigger view <em>“Technology giants like Amazon, Google and Microsoft are now carrying the S&amp;P 500. “We started noticing that big companies got better and got stronger, and their returns got greater as they grew, rather than the reverse,”</em>', 'The \'Don\'t Worry, Make Money\' Strategy Trouncing The Stock Market By 30 Percentage Points', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-dont-worry-make-money-strategy-trouncing-the-stock-market-by-30-percentage-points', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:00:09', '2020-06-15 12:00:09', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3534', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3535, 1, '2020-06-15 12:00:09', '2020-06-15 12:00:09', 'At Marcellus, we embrace the risk minimisation approach to investing which reflects our team’s highly sceptical view of most things in the market. Whilst scepticism does help avoid loss making prospects, it does sometimes lead to passing on potentially money-making opportunities. Here’s a century old investment firm which is taking the opposite approach of positive thinking and has reaped the benefits of that. Baillie Gifford, a Scottish fund management firm, has a rule for its analysts and fund managers that <em>“..for the first 20 minutes, anyone speaking about the idea has to be positive, contributing only to the bullish case of a stock”. </em>Such an approach has helped the firm benefit from the emergence of new tech firms right from rubber plantations that would benefit from the discovery of automobiles in the early 20<sup>th</sup> century to the more recent success of Tesla.\r\n<em>“One of Baillie Gifford’s first trades was to lend to rubber plantations in the Malay Peninsula, believing Henry Ford’s pioneering Model T automobile would revolutionize the world. After World War I, the firm decided America was a compelling “emerging market,” and built positions in railroads including Union Pacific and Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe, eventually investing 20% of its assets in the United States. In the 1960s, it was an early investor in emerging Japan….</em>\r\n<em>…Name a hot coronavirus stock, and Baillie Gifford discovered it and built a massive position before the virus spread. The firm has long-held multibillion-dollar positions in Alibaba, Amazon, Tencent, Microsoft and Netflix. Newer buys include Zoom, Covid-19 vaccine hopeful Moderna, digital health upstart Teladoc and online textbook seller Chegg. It’s a large shareholder in Wayfair, which first plunged as Covid-19 spread, then rose eightfold when sales skyrocketed as quarantined customers made home improvements. Baillie Gifford is also a top holder of surging Covid stocks Grubhub and Peloton, the cycling platform many are using to burn off their “quarantine 15” weight gain.”</em>\r\nThe Forbes article cites three things that have perhaps allowed Baillie Gifford to succeed in this approach. First, this approach like most successful ways of investing necessitates a long term thinking. This is engraved in the minds of its people. They even have an <em>“imposing sign over the entrance [to its headquarters] reads “ACTUAL INVESTORS THINK IN DECADES. NOT QUARTERS.””</em>\r\nSecond, an element of positive thinking like the 20min only bullish case rule <em>“The optimism rule is designed to thwart what the partners believe is a natural tendency for smart people to be skeptical and shoot down ideas prematurely.”</em>\r\nThird, an institutional approach to discovery. Baillie Gifford works very closely with academia spending a lot of its research budget to stay ahead of the curve across fields including investing, philosophy, tech, genetics, etc. It publishes a magazine that shares its findings from its work with academia – one such <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=3dce48e09d&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D3dce48e09d%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592302650274000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgYYVA7oNf_6chC3qdLSrQKWpUgA\">piece</a> was featured in an earlier edition of Three longs and three shorts.\r\n<em>“While private equity firms and corporate chiefs have spent the past decade making companies lean and leveraged, Baillie Gifford’s stock pickers ignore all that and seek out companies investing in research and technology. They particularly like projects that might not be immediately profitable but could propel the economy a decade from now. Quantitative investing is all the rage, but the Scottish firm is moving in the other direction, trading little and spending its research budget sponsoring literary prizes, investigating new philosophical ideas and endowing university chairs in genetics and computational biology.”</em>\r\nAnd it goes without saying, such an approach dumps valuation tools such as PE multiples. Indeed, a distinct characterstic that differentiates Baillie Gifford from say a VC firm punting on new technology is factoring in ‘staying power’ (a PE multiple doesn’t capture that).\r\n<em>“The firm pays little attention to traditional valuation metrics such as earnings per share or price/earnings ratios. It’s singularly focused on three things—growth, competitive advantage and staying power—and it doesn’t mind parking its investors’ money in stocks that would make value investors seasick. Here’s a sampling: Zoom, the now-ubiquitous video-chat company, which has a price/earnings ratio of 400; e-commerce upstart Shopify, at 50 times revenues; online furniture merchant Wayfair, which lost $1 billion in 2019, double that of the prior year. But these very stocks, plus a good number of the 30 to 50 others held in each of their 14 mutual fund portfolios, are exactly the companies benefiting from existing trends accelerating during the crisis.”</em>\r\nObviously, this approach is beset with setbacks. So, it does require a positive approach, conviction and long term thinking.<em> “When the internet stock bubble popped in 2000, Baillie Gifford suffered a setback, but as investors fled companies like Amazon, the firm backed Jeff Bezos’ vision. It was Amazon’s remarkable resilience and success that birthed the firm’s think-happy-thoughts-first, be-critical-later approach. Its timing was perfect.”</em>\r\nEven during the current Covid crisis, the company is taking a positive approach : <em>““One of the things we feel is absolutely incumbent on us at this moment is to encourage the companies we back to be brave,”….Baillie Gifford has gone so far as to mail letters to its portfolio companies, encouraging CEOs to forestall layoffs and cost cutting. It even offered new capital so they could maintain their growth plans.”</em>\r\nOne aspect where Marcellus shares a common belief with Baillie Gifford is the big getting bigger view <em>“Technology giants like Amazon, Google and Microsoft are now carrying the S&amp;P 500. “We started noticing that big companies got better and got stronger, and their returns got greater as they grew, rather than the reverse,”</em>', 'The \'Don\'t Worry, Make Money\' Strategy Trouncing The Stock Market By 30 Percentage Points', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3534-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:00:09', '2020-06-15 12:00:09', '', 3534, 'https://marcellus.in/3534-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3536, 1, '2020-06-14 12:00:17', '2020-06-14 12:00:17', 'Amidst the pandemic and riots of 2020 when nothing seems to be going particularly right, the Sikh community in the US is quietly going about feeding thousands of people in need for free, showing the better side of humanity. The article talks about the aspect of selfless service that is an essential part of Sikhism. Gurudwaras across the US which in the normal course of life serve free meals to devotees, almost all prepared by volunteers are obviously seeing few visitors during the lockdown. So, volunteers decided to use their large kitchen infrastructure to supply free meals to those in need due to the pandemic or those participating in the ongoing protests in the country.\r\n<em>“Since the pandemic began, soup kitchens have had difficulty keeping up with demand. Shuttered schools and even fine-dining restaurants are using their kitchens to prepare and serve hot meals. But few other places are as well positioned to handle the sheer scale of assistance required right now as the gurdwaras. Most have large, well-equipped kitchens, a steady stream of volunteers and no shortage of ingredients, thanks to regular donations from community members.</em>\r\n<em>During the last annual Sikh Day Parade in New York, in April 2019, the Queens Village kitchen — which has a walk-in cooler, multiple freezers, 50-liter stockpots and a huge grill that can cook dozens of rotis at once — produced 15,000 meals in a single day.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not just because the infrastructure is already there, said Satjeet Kaur, the executive director of the Sikh Coalition. “The call to action and the responsibility” for helping others is deeply entrenched in the Sikh way of life. Sikhs are expected to donate at least 10 percent of their time or income toward community service.</em>\r\n<em>And it isn’t just about the service either. Supporting the protests also appeal to the community’s principle of fighting for justice.</em>\r\n<em>“It is our duty to stand up with others to fight for justice,” said Ms. Kaur, a graduating senior at the University of California, Irvine. “Langar at its core is a revolution — against inequality and the caste system,” the antiquated hereditary class structure in South Asia, which Sikhism has always rejected.…Swaranjit Singh Khalsa, a volunteer and a member of the Norwich Board of Education, noted that historically, many Sikhs in India have been killed by the police while fighting for their civil rights.</em>\r\n<em>At many gurdwaras in the United States, most of those who show up for langar meals are Sikhs. Now that they are catering to a broader population, menus have changed to suit different tastes. In the Seattle area, volunteers at the Gurudwara Sacha Marag Sahib are making pasta and tacos in addition to rice and dal. At the Hacienda de Guru Ram Das in Española, N.M., meals have included enchiladas and burritos.</em>\r\n<em>…The process is highly systematized. The cooking team shows up at 5:30 a.m. to prepare meals based on previous days’ numbers, as well as requests from senior centers, hospitals and nursing homes; another team packs the meals into microwave-safe boxes; and the third distributes them at the drive-through and other locations. The gurdwara shares information about the free meals through regular posts on large Facebook groups for local residents.”</em>', 'How to Feed Crowds in a Protest or Pandemic? The Sikhs Know', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-feed-crowds-in-a-protest-or-pandemic-the-sikhs-know', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:01:25', '2020-06-15 12:01:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3536', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3537, 1, '2020-06-15 12:01:25', '2020-06-15 12:01:25', 'Amidst the pandemic and riots of 2020 when nothing seems to be going particularly right, the Sikh community in the US is quietly going about feeding thousands of people in need for free, showing the better side of humanity. The article talks about the aspect of selfless service that is an essential part of Sikhism. Gurudwaras across the US which in the normal course of life serve free meals to devotees, almost all prepared by volunteers are obviously seeing few visitors during the lockdown. So, volunteers decided to use their large kitchen infrastructure to supply free meals to those in need due to the pandemic or those participating in the ongoing protests in the country.\r\n<em>“Since the pandemic began, soup kitchens have had difficulty keeping up with demand. Shuttered schools and even fine-dining restaurants are using their kitchens to prepare and serve hot meals. But few other places are as well positioned to handle the sheer scale of assistance required right now as the gurdwaras. Most have large, well-equipped kitchens, a steady stream of volunteers and no shortage of ingredients, thanks to regular donations from community members.</em>\r\n<em>During the last annual Sikh Day Parade in New York, in April 2019, the Queens Village kitchen — which has a walk-in cooler, multiple freezers, 50-liter stockpots and a huge grill that can cook dozens of rotis at once — produced 15,000 meals in a single day.</em>\r\n<em>…This is not just because the infrastructure is already there, said Satjeet Kaur, the executive director of the Sikh Coalition. “The call to action and the responsibility” for helping others is deeply entrenched in the Sikh way of life. Sikhs are expected to donate at least 10 percent of their time or income toward community service.</em>\r\n<em>And it isn’t just about the service either. Supporting the protests also appeal to the community’s principle of fighting for justice.</em>\r\n<em>“It is our duty to stand up with others to fight for justice,” said Ms. Kaur, a graduating senior at the University of California, Irvine. “Langar at its core is a revolution — against inequality and the caste system,” the antiquated hereditary class structure in South Asia, which Sikhism has always rejected.…Swaranjit Singh Khalsa, a volunteer and a member of the Norwich Board of Education, noted that historically, many Sikhs in India have been killed by the police while fighting for their civil rights.</em>\r\n<em>At many gurdwaras in the United States, most of those who show up for langar meals are Sikhs. Now that they are catering to a broader population, menus have changed to suit different tastes. In the Seattle area, volunteers at the Gurudwara Sacha Marag Sahib are making pasta and tacos in addition to rice and dal. At the Hacienda de Guru Ram Das in Española, N.M., meals have included enchiladas and burritos.</em>\r\n<em>…The process is highly systematized. The cooking team shows up at 5:30 a.m. to prepare meals based on previous days’ numbers, as well as requests from senior centers, hospitals and nursing homes; another team packs the meals into microwave-safe boxes; and the third distributes them at the drive-through and other locations. The gurdwara shares information about the free meals through regular posts on large Facebook groups for local residents.”</em>', 'How to Feed Crowds in a Protest or Pandemic? The Sikhs Know', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3536-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:01:25', '2020-06-15 12:01:25', '', 3536, 'https://marcellus.in/3536-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3538, 1, '2020-06-14 12:01:35', '2020-06-14 12:01:35', 'Every now and then we run into a prospect who at the end of the meeting would ask for a stock tip as a parting gift of sorts. Some of them are self professed punters who fully recognise they are just pandering to their gambling instincts and therefore dabble a bit rather than bet their life savings on it. However not everyone does. The shutting down of casinos during the lockdown coupled with people sitting at home often without much work has driven many a gambler to the stock market. They even punt on bankrupt companies. Robinhood, the online stock trading platform reported that the number of its users who have Hertz shares shot up from next to nothing pre-bankruptcy to almost 1.4m post resulting in Hertz shares rising 5x at some stage. In this piece, Jason Zweig talks about this phenomenon and throws in a few words of wisdom for speculators:\r\n“<em>Las Vegas has reopened, and not just in Nevada. Wall Street also resembles a casino—even more than it normally does. Many stocks, especially of smaller companies in financial distress, have been bouncing around like dice on a craps table.</em>\r\n<em>These moves seem partly driven by people who are flocking to the stock market for the thrill of taking big risks, whether they pay off or not. Such gambling can be fun, but you should never confuse it with investing.</em>\r\n<em>This week, Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK 9.01% shot up 182% on Monday, fell 66% on Tuesday and 29% on Wednesday, then rose 5% on Thursday. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. rose 115% on Monday, then sank 24% on Tuesday, 40% on Wednesday and 18% on Thursday. Whiting Petroleum Corp. WLL 11.32% soared 152% on Monday, lost 32% on Tuesday and 33% on Wednesday, then gained more than 20% on Thursday before falling back.</em>\r\n<em>Such wild swings are probably powered by individuals trading for short-term kicks and by computer algorithms that pick up on such trades and pile in to ride the momentum. In the old days, the little guy mimicked the big boys; right now, it may be the other way around.</em>\r\n<em>…“They don’t know what they’re doing,…and they don’t care that they don’t know what they’re doing…To them, there’s no sense in looking at a company’s balance sheet or figuring out how to do a discounted cash-flow analysis. They just regard the volatility as an opportunity for fun.”</em>\r\nJason ends the piece with a few tips for speculators:\r\n<em>..Speculating has some entertainment value. You might learn something useful. There’s even a remote chance you’ll make money. But always know you’re speculating. Also know that you can lose your shirt. Wise gamblers lock their wallets in the hotel-room safe and bring only as much cash to the casino floor as they’re willing to lose. So pick a tiny sum you’re willing to risk—say 1% or 2% of your portfolio. Speculate, if you must, only with that much. Use a different brokerage firm from your regular accounts, to keep any gambling itch from infecting your long-term thinking. Above all, if you get a yearning to join the crowd, think about whether it’s a crowd you want to be part of.”</em>', 'Playing the Market Has a Whole New Meaning', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'playing-the-market-has-a-whole-new-meaning', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:03:32', '2020-06-15 12:03:32', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3538', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3617, 1, '2020-05-31 12:36:51', '2020-05-31 12:36:51', '', 'Bloomberg Quint | Talking Point With Saurabh Mukherjea | May 31, 2020', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'bloomberg-quint-talking-point-with-saurabh-mukherjea-may-31-2020', '', '', '2020-06-23 12:47:37', '2020-06-23 12:47:37', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=media_coverage&#038;p=3617', 0, 'media_coverage', '', 0),
(3540, 1, '2020-06-15 12:03:32', '2020-06-15 12:03:32', 'Every now and then we run into a prospect who at the end of the meeting would ask for a stock tip as a parting gift of sorts. Some of them are self professed punters who fully recognise they are just pandering to their gambling instincts and therefore dabble a bit rather than bet their life savings on it. However not everyone does. The shutting down of casinos during the lockdown coupled with people sitting at home often without much work has driven many a gambler to the stock market. They even punt on bankrupt companies. Robinhood, the online stock trading platform reported that the number of its users who have Hertz shares shot up from next to nothing pre-bankruptcy to almost 1.4m post resulting in Hertz shares rising 5x at some stage. In this piece, Jason Zweig talks about this phenomenon and throws in a few words of wisdom for speculators:\r\n“<em>Las Vegas has reopened, and not just in Nevada. Wall Street also resembles a casino—even more than it normally does. Many stocks, especially of smaller companies in financial distress, have been bouncing around like dice on a craps table.</em>\r\n<em>These moves seem partly driven by people who are flocking to the stock market for the thrill of taking big risks, whether they pay off or not. Such gambling can be fun, but you should never confuse it with investing.</em>\r\n<em>This week, Chesapeake Energy Corp. CHK 9.01% shot up 182% on Monday, fell 66% on Tuesday and 29% on Wednesday, then rose 5% on Thursday. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. rose 115% on Monday, then sank 24% on Tuesday, 40% on Wednesday and 18% on Thursday. Whiting Petroleum Corp. WLL 11.32% soared 152% on Monday, lost 32% on Tuesday and 33% on Wednesday, then gained more than 20% on Thursday before falling back.</em>\r\n<em>Such wild swings are probably powered by individuals trading for short-term kicks and by computer algorithms that pick up on such trades and pile in to ride the momentum. In the old days, the little guy mimicked the big boys; right now, it may be the other way around.</em>\r\n<em>…“They don’t know what they’re doing,…and they don’t care that they don’t know what they’re doing…To them, there’s no sense in looking at a company’s balance sheet or figuring out how to do a discounted cash-flow analysis. They just regard the volatility as an opportunity for fun.”</em>\r\nJason ends the piece with a few tips for speculators:\r\n<em>..Speculating has some entertainment value. You might learn something useful. There’s even a remote chance you’ll make money. But always know you’re speculating. Also know that you can lose your shirt. Wise gamblers lock their wallets in the hotel-room safe and bring only as much cash to the casino floor as they’re willing to lose. So pick a tiny sum you’re willing to risk—say 1% or 2% of your portfolio. Speculate, if you must, only with that much. Use a different brokerage firm from your regular accounts, to keep any gambling itch from infecting your long-term thinking. Above all, if you get a yearning to join the crowd, think about whether it’s a crowd you want to be part of.”</em>', 'Playing the Market Has a Whole New Meaning', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3538-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-15 12:03:32', '2020-06-15 12:03:32', '', 3538, 'https://marcellus.in/3538-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3542, 1, '2020-06-16 12:54:04', '2020-06-16 12:54:04', '<em>All happy companies are different: each one earns a monopoly by solving a unique problem. All failed companies are the same: they failed to escape competition – <strong>Peter Thiel</strong> in ‘Zero to One ‘, (2014)</em>\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone wp-image-3543 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/blog1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"445\" />\r\n\r\nPeter Thiel in his bestselling book, Zero to One (2014), compared Google with America’s airlines industry. He highlighted that the US airline companies serve millions of passengers and create hundreds of billions of dollars of value each year yet capture an insignificant amount of this value. Compare this with Google, which creates less value but captures far more for itself. Google brought in $50 billion of revenue in 2012 v/s $160 billion for the airline industry, however kept 21% of those revenues as profits – more than 100 times the airline industry’s profit margin that year (and the next year and the one after that). What separates Google from the airline companies is that Google is a near monopoly whereas the airline industry operates in a ‘perfect competition market’.\r\n\r\nWhere Google can plan for the long-term future and invest in innovation, America’s airline companies are focussed on protecting today’s margins. Thiel suggests that sustainable monopolies can think beyond protecting margins and have the flexibility to care about employees, invest in innovation and build sustainable moats. In contrast, competitive businesses in low margin sectors will pay their workers minimum wages and try to cut corners, sometimes even at the cost of the customer experience. A sustainable monopoly is good not only for its shareholders and its management but also for its employees, customers and business partners.\r\n\r\nIn a ‘dynamic’ world, evolution of both demand (i.e. customer behaviour) as well as the supply of a product or service can also disrupt some monopolies overnight, the way firms like Kodak and Xerox got disrupted. Therefore, a creative monopolist reinvests the monopoly profits to innovate new products, improve existing products and figure out better ways of meeting the customer’s demand. Hence, progress usually comes from monopolies, and not from ‘perfect competition’.\r\n\r\nIn ‘Zero to One’ Thiel has also given a framework for new entrepreneurs on how to build a monopoly. First step he suggests is to start small – target a niche market where competitive intensity is very low and the opportunity is being left unaddressed. Next, monopolize the market while building strong barriers to entry and then slowly scale up the business by moving to adjacent or related categories. He suggests a focus on four characteristics of building a monopoly – a) Proprietary technology, b) Network effects, c) Economies of scale, and d) Brand.\r\n\r\nWhilst this framework was given by Thiel in the context of young technology start-ups, in India there exist several monopolies in other large traditional industries as well. The most common framework adopted by Indian monopolists for creating and sustaining a monopoly franchise is given in the flowchart shown above.\r\n\r\n­Here are a few examples of how dominant franchises in India have implemented this framework in India’s B2C segments:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The challenge of B2C distribution</strong>: In a vast country like India, establishing a distribution network is a challenge because of poor transport infrastructure, and diverse / non-uniform demand across geographies, socio-economic strata of households. Moreover, India has one of the highest number retail touchpoints because even today 90-95% points of sale in most categories consist of mom-and-pop stores across most industries. The simple way to address this challenge is by offering incentives to third party distributors, wholesalers, stockists, etc for executing the hub and spoke distribution. Instead, firms like Asian Paints and Pidilite took the more difficult route to resolve this challenge. Asian Paints removed all layers of channel partners and reached out directly to paint dealers on the high street, while also compressing their channel margins. The incentive offered to these dealers was supply chain efficiencies of (3-4 deliveries per day) which helps these dealers generate a healthy return on their capital employed. This capability was built using tech investments to forecast demand with greater accuracy compared to their competitors. Similarly, Pidilite created a pull-based demand for its products by targeting carpenters (influencers), educating them about the benefits of these products and their application process. Pidilite helped carpenters up-skill themselves through their association with Pidilite. Pidilite followed a similar approach when it launched its waterproofing solution, Dr. Fixit, by setting up the Dr. Fixit institute of waterproofing and training close to 1 lakh applicators annually</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The challenge of retail lending</strong>: As a product, bank deposits are largely commoditised. Hence, building a granular retail deposits led liabilities side of the balance sheet is a difficult way to raise funds for a lender. Similarly, building a high quality loan book by selecting borrowers based on their credit scores from a credit rating agency (like CIBIL) is commoditised and can be done by every lender in the industry. However, yields / margins available on such a loan book are wafer thin and hence doesn’t help build a high ROE franchise. One of the simpler solutions to these challenges is to raise funds from the money market (at high rates) and lend to high-risk large corporates at high interest rates. Instead, HDFC bank chose the difficult path – it built the liabilities side of the balance sheet through low-cost CASA (current accounts, savings accounts) and lent largely to high quality retail borrowers at low rates. Similarly, Bajaj Finance solved the asset side problem of a retail lender by leveraging technology to develop credit algorithms to capture datapoints which are not captured in credit scores generated by a credit rating agency and built a huge data-based lending engine to identify the credit worthiness of retail borrowers.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>The challenge of executing brick and mortar retail</strong>: Establishing a wide organized retail network is challenging because of some inherent factors like expensive real estate when optimisation of store economics is a challenge given: a) a long and difficult learning curve around optimal store size, location, merchandise layout, etc; b) intense competition from widespread unorganized retail; and c) high attrition in store-level staff which delivers a poor customer interface. In an industry like diagnostic labs, the simple way to build a pan-India business whilst overcoming these challenges is to setup a B2B type of retail network where samples are procured from hospitals or third party labs / collection centres, and reports are white labelled and delivered. Dr. Lal Pathlabs, instead, overcame this challenge in a difficult and slow manner, through significant tech investments and a very gradual geographical expansion of its collection centres and labs. The firm also controls several aspects of the franchisee’s collection centre like layout, supplying some sample collection equipment and in some cases even controlling lab technicians. This has helped the firm optimise store economics and build a highly cash generative business model (unlike most retail businesses which tend to be cash guzzlers).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong>Investment Implications</strong>\r\nIt is easy to understand why monopolies are great for their shareholders – high free cash generation (i.e. ROCEs well above cost of capital) and consistent growth in earnings over the longer term tend to result in consistent wealth compounding for shareholders. The high cash generation of monopolies enables them to innovate, strengthen and evolve their competitive advantages. However, spotting the existence of such monopolies is not easy. As Peter Thiel says in his book ‘Zero to One’, “<em>Anyone that has a monopoly will pretend that they’re in incredible competition…. If the monopolists pretend not to have monopolies &amp; the non-monopolists pretend to have monopolies, the apparent difference is very small”</em>. The presence of a business framework along the lines of what is shown in the exhibit above is one of the tools that investors can use to spot the existence of high barriers to entry created by a monopolist around his business.\r\n\r\nMarcellus’ investment philosophy revolves around finding dominant companies where this culture of innovation and building new competitive advantages is ingrained in every layer of management because that is what will help them sustain their dominance over long time periods.\r\n\r\nDisclosure: Asian Paints, Pidilite, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance and Dr. Lal Pathlabs are a part of most of Marcellus’ portfolios.\r\n\r\n<em>Deven Kulkarni is an analyst and Rakshit Ranjan is a fund manager at Marcellus Investment Managers</em>', 'Inside the Mind Of the Indian Monopolist', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'inside-the-mind-of-the-indian-monopolist', '', '', '2020-06-17 06:56:15', '2020-06-17 06:56:15', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=blogs&#038;p=3542', 0, 'blogs', '', 0),
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(3667, 1, '2020-06-28 04:57:22', '2020-06-28 04:57:22', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-dharavi-unlock-how-daily-new-cases-down-to-single-digit', '', '', '2020-06-29 06:01:45', '2020-06-29 06:01:45', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3667', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3715, 1, '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '', 'Snippets', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'snippets', '', '', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?page_id=3715', 0, 'page', '', 0),
(3690, 1, '2020-07-02 05:58:27', '2020-07-02 05:58:27', '', '500x320_link_17', '', 'inherit', 'open', 'closed', '', '500x320_link_17-2', '', '', '2020-07-02 05:58:27', '2020-07-02 05:58:27', '', 3689, 'https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/500x320_link_17-1.jpg', 0, 'attachment', 'image/jpeg', 0),
(3555, 1, '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', 'Love him or hate him, you cannot deny that Peter Thiel has been for some time now one of the most prescient thinkers in the world and someone who has the courage to back his convictions with cold hard cash. As Ms Burton says in this superb essay: <em>“With a net worth of approximately $2.3 billion, Thiel is far from the wealthiest person in Silicon Valley (Google’s Larry Page’s net worth is an estimated $66 billion, for instance). He may, however, be the most influential. Alongside his investments in high-profile companies like Airbnb, LinkedIn, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and health-insurance company Oscar, Thiel’s more esoteric pet projects and funding recipients include some of the Bay Area’s most out-of-the-box libertarian-utopian ventures: the Seasteading Institute, the Eliezer Yudkowsky–helmed Machine Intelligence Research Center, which researches how to counter the threat of an intelligent Artificial Intelligence; the Center for Applied Rationality, a de facto headquarters for the Silicon Valley rationalist community; the Methuselah Mouse Prize, which funds antiaging research under the aegis of controversial gerontologist Aubrey de Grey. Thiel’s foundations have funded gleefully contrarian events like “Hereticon,” originally scheduled for May 2020 in New Orleans but since postponed, due to the coronavirus. It is billed as “a safe space for people who don’t feel safe in safe spaces.” And they’ve founded, too, novel medical apps like Carbyne, an Israeli “self-surveillance” 911 tool now used in New Orleans as part of the city’s Covid-19 public-health effort. Add the spectacular collapse of Gawker Media—bankrupted after a Thiel-funded lawsuit by former wrestling star Hulk Hogan, whose private sex tapes the site had posted in 2012—and the election of Donald Trump, to whose 2016 campaign he donated $1.25 million, and a pattern emerges. Wherever there’s a major shift in the American landscape in the past half-decade—be it political or cultural—there, somewhere on the donor list of the political campaign, or among the investors in the controversial technology, is Peter Thiel.”</em>\r\nThere are many strands of this rich essay on Thiel which we could write about. We will focus on only two here so that you read the essay to discover the other shape shifting controversial thoughts which are rumbling through Thiel’s brilliant mind.\r\nFirstly, as articulated in his blockbuster bestseller <em>‘Zero to One’</em>, Thiel has a very original take on why businesses should be created and how they should be run: <em>“The creation of a remarkable, cutting-edge company…shouldn’t just be about amassing personal wealth for its founders. It should also be about remaking the world—transforming personal potential into a technological reimagining of human life. By contrast, the stasis of mimesis, driven by human resentment, leads to political mediocrity and technological anhedonia. To disrupt, insofar as it means to disrupt the mimetic system, is thus a liberating act.</em>\r\n<em>And when radical human potential is unleashed upon the world, it demands—and deserves—proliferation. Thiel and Masters justify monopolies, so long as the company is creating genuinely new, life-improving technologies to earn its outsize profits. “Monopolies deserve their bad reputation—but only in a world where nothing changes,” the authors observe. “In a static world, a monopolist is just a rent collector. If you corner the market for something you can jack up the price . . . but the world we live in is dynamic: it’s possible to invent new and better things. Creative monopolists give customers more choices by adding entirely new categories of abundance to the world. Creative monopolies aren’t just good for the rest of society; they’re powerful engines for making it better.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Thiel has repeatedly talked about the increasing irrelevance of the formal university education system. He has then gone on to back his talk up with cash &amp; investments and these investments now seem to be making him a lot of money: <em>“The Thiel Fellowship would be a kind of “20 under 20” for the tech industry’s incipient disrupters. Twenty entrepreneurs under 20 would get $100,000 to drop out of college and work full-time on their startup ideas….</em>\r\n<em>Since its first “class” was announced in 2011, the fellowship has funded between 20 and 30 promising young entrepreneurs annually. Past Thiel Fellows have created smash hits like Workflow—a productivity tool that, following its 2014 launch, was the Apple Store’s most downloaded app—and successful startups like Ethereum, the cyrpto-currency started by Thiel fellow Vitalik Buterin, and Figma, a design tool built by Dylan Field. Gibson and former fellowship director Danielle Strachman have since left the initiative to start the Thiel-backed 1517 Fund: a seed-stage venture-capital firm that backs the companies of several former Thiel Fellows….</em>\r\n<em>Yet the Thiel Fellowship is, on closer inspection, radically subversive—as much an attempt at delegitimizing the contemporary American educational landscape as it is about rewarding young would-be founders. The American collegiate system, Thiel, his staff, and his fellows unanimously affirm, has become a giant scam, transforming potential innovators into subservient drones; indoctrinating the disrupters of tomorrow into Marxist myths of resentment; and using the social-justice buzzwords of class privilege and structural oppression to crush the spirit. Like American progressivism, they say, the university is rotten from the inside out, on this view—and it needs to be burned to the ground, figuratively speaking, so that something new and better can be built from the ashes…”</em>', 'The Gospel According to Peter Thiel', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-gospel-according-to-peter-thiel', '', '', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3555', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3556, 1, '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', 'Love him or hate him, you cannot deny that Peter Thiel has been for some time now one of the most prescient thinkers in the world and someone who has the courage to back his convictions with cold hard cash. As Ms Burton says in this superb essay: <em>“With a net worth of approximately $2.3 billion, Thiel is far from the wealthiest person in Silicon Valley (Google’s Larry Page’s net worth is an estimated $66 billion, for instance). He may, however, be the most influential. Alongside his investments in high-profile companies like Airbnb, LinkedIn, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and health-insurance company Oscar, Thiel’s more esoteric pet projects and funding recipients include some of the Bay Area’s most out-of-the-box libertarian-utopian ventures: the Seasteading Institute, the Eliezer Yudkowsky–helmed Machine Intelligence Research Center, which researches how to counter the threat of an intelligent Artificial Intelligence; the Center for Applied Rationality, a de facto headquarters for the Silicon Valley rationalist community; the Methuselah Mouse Prize, which funds antiaging research under the aegis of controversial gerontologist Aubrey de Grey. Thiel’s foundations have funded gleefully contrarian events like “Hereticon,” originally scheduled for May 2020 in New Orleans but since postponed, due to the coronavirus. It is billed as “a safe space for people who don’t feel safe in safe spaces.” And they’ve founded, too, novel medical apps like Carbyne, an Israeli “self-surveillance” 911 tool now used in New Orleans as part of the city’s Covid-19 public-health effort. Add the spectacular collapse of Gawker Media—bankrupted after a Thiel-funded lawsuit by former wrestling star Hulk Hogan, whose private sex tapes the site had posted in 2012—and the election of Donald Trump, to whose 2016 campaign he donated $1.25 million, and a pattern emerges. Wherever there’s a major shift in the American landscape in the past half-decade—be it political or cultural—there, somewhere on the donor list of the political campaign, or among the investors in the controversial technology, is Peter Thiel.”</em>\r\nThere are many strands of this rich essay on Thiel which we could write about. We will focus on only two here so that you read the essay to discover the other shape shifting controversial thoughts which are rumbling through Thiel’s brilliant mind.\r\nFirstly, as articulated in his blockbuster bestseller <em>‘Zero to One’</em>, Thiel has a very original take on why businesses should be created and how they should be run: <em>“The creation of a remarkable, cutting-edge company…shouldn’t just be about amassing personal wealth for its founders. It should also be about remaking the world—transforming personal potential into a technological reimagining of human life. By contrast, the stasis of mimesis, driven by human resentment, leads to political mediocrity and technological anhedonia. To disrupt, insofar as it means to disrupt the mimetic system, is thus a liberating act.</em>\r\n<em>And when radical human potential is unleashed upon the world, it demands—and deserves—proliferation. Thiel and Masters justify monopolies, so long as the company is creating genuinely new, life-improving technologies to earn its outsize profits. “Monopolies deserve their bad reputation—but only in a world where nothing changes,” the authors observe. “In a static world, a monopolist is just a rent collector. If you corner the market for something you can jack up the price . . . but the world we live in is dynamic: it’s possible to invent new and better things. Creative monopolists give customers more choices by adding entirely new categories of abundance to the world. Creative monopolies aren’t just good for the rest of society; they’re powerful engines for making it better.”</em>\r\nSecondly, Thiel has repeatedly talked about the increasing irrelevance of the formal university education system. He has then gone on to back his talk up with cash &amp; investments and these investments now seem to be making him a lot of money: <em>“The Thiel Fellowship would be a kind of “20 under 20” for the tech industry’s incipient disrupters. Twenty entrepreneurs under 20 would get $100,000 to drop out of college and work full-time on their startup ideas….</em>\r\n<em>Since its first “class” was announced in 2011, the fellowship has funded between 20 and 30 promising young entrepreneurs annually. Past Thiel Fellows have created smash hits like Workflow—a productivity tool that, following its 2014 launch, was the Apple Store’s most downloaded app—and successful startups like Ethereum, the cyrpto-currency started by Thiel fellow Vitalik Buterin, and Figma, a design tool built by Dylan Field. Gibson and former fellowship director Danielle Strachman have since left the initiative to start the Thiel-backed 1517 Fund: a seed-stage venture-capital firm that backs the companies of several former Thiel Fellows….</em>\r\n<em>Yet the Thiel Fellowship is, on closer inspection, radically subversive—as much an attempt at delegitimizing the contemporary American educational landscape as it is about rewarding young would-be founders. The American collegiate system, Thiel, his staff, and his fellows unanimously affirm, has become a giant scam, transforming potential innovators into subservient drones; indoctrinating the disrupters of tomorrow into Marxist myths of resentment; and using the social-justice buzzwords of class privilege and structural oppression to crush the spirit. Like American progressivism, they say, the university is rotten from the inside out, on this view—and it needs to be burned to the ground, figuratively speaking, so that something new and better can be built from the ashes…”</em>', 'The Gospel According to Peter Thiel', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3555-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '2020-06-22 07:27:59', '', 3555, 'https://marcellus.in/3555-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3557, 1, '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '<div>Marc Andreessen has been an influential thinker and VC for twice as long as Peter Thiel. In this interview with Sriram Krishnan, he focuses on how he manages his time. Based on this interview, we discern five specific strands in Mr Andreessen’s time management philosophy:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Have a well-structured routine from Mon-Fri and follow that routine religiously:</strong> <em>“The day of the week determines a lot. Monday and Friday have very specific schedules because we run in the rhythm of a venture capital firm. There’s an all day sort-of marathon on Monday which is when most of the actual teamwork happens. We also use Friday for that.Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are much more open ended. Those tend to be a lot more outwards-facing and have lots of board meetings, entrepreneur counsels and so on. Running Monday through Friday in this kind of regimented schedule, I do now finally understand why people have the concept of a weekend. I\'m trying my best to preserve Saturday and Sunday for at least a little bit of downtime.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Schedule everything – including sleep, free time and reading time – into your calendar:</strong> <em>“The big thing is basically *everything* is on the calendar. Sleep is on the calendar, going to bed is in there and so is free time. Free time is critical because that\'s the release valve. You can work full tilt for a long time as long as you know you have actual time for yourself coming up. I find if you don\'t schedule enough free time, you get resentful of your own calendar. When I was younger, I didn\'t really have the concept of turning off. But there comes a time, a little bit with age, when your body rebels. And obviously, if you have a family, that’s not great with a system where you\'re just always working.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Don’t schedule your diary to the nth degree; have some free time left in your diary:</strong> <em>“…we’ve both worked with executives where they were scheduled to the ‘nth’ degree. The three things you tend to notice with executives like that. One, they just never have any time to actually think. And that turns out to be a fairly important thing. Two, they have a hard time adjusting to changes in circumstances. In our business of venture capital, you get a lot of problems that come up. There is a lot of firefighting. It\'s like those classic movie scenes when there\'s a huge crisis and somebody calls out to their secretary “Cancel my schedule!”. Well, maybe you wouldn’t need to do that if you had some flexibility in your calendar. Then the other thing you’ve probably seen is the managers who are regimented to that degree end up being micro managers. You’ve probably seen examples of this where some of these folks end up in the weeds on everything. The good news is they\'ve got the pulse of everything happening in the organization. The bad news is they’ve become the bottleneck.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Review your time management every six months and ask yourself if you are focusing on the right things: </strong><em>“One, about every six months or so I feel overwhelmed. It all starts to kind of get away from me. And so typically about every six months, I\'ll basically sit down and do a come-to-Jesus with myself. Which is ‘Okay, you\'ve got this great system, but it\'s becoming overloaded’. And ‘you\'re saying yes to too many things and are involved in too many things’. You really have to uplevel and figure out what\'s important. I usually take a good hour to look at what I\'ve been doing. It’s basically figuring out the threshold for ‘yes’ versus ‘no’. I try to revise that about once a year. Also about once a year, I rewrite my personal plan. I just write from scratch what I\'m actually trying to do and my goals and then line up the activities that are below that. I would say a couple things about time allocation….I do try to have some sort of intuitive sense of what\'s going on and how to rebalance. The firm is built to accomplish what I want to accomplish. And then my role here is to accomplish that within the context of the firm. And so the short answer is always the same - how do we optimize for the success of the firm? For the projects the firm is involved in, how do I optimize my contribution to that?”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Focus on the process, not the outcome: </strong><em>“…we\'re basically all about inputs. It\'s basically process versus outcome…Venture capital is too elongated an activity. We don\'t really know whether something is going to work or not work in the first five years of its life after we passed. And so it’s - okay, what do I learn? Like, what, what do I learn in the first three years when it\'s not working? Because sometimes these companies really struggle for a while and then they really succeed. Sometimes it’s the opposite - they really succeed fast and then they have serious issues later.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>It\'s really hard to get good metaphors but it\'s poker, right? It\'s really, really, really hard to be a good poker player. And if you\'re kicking yourself every time you have a bad hand, the bad habits just simply happen. You just need to be able to have a system that lets you think through the process...</em> <em>Michael Mauboussin has written extensively in his books about this as a profession. The craft of investing as a process of separating process and outcome. We are almost entirely a world of trying to optimize the process. The outcomes come when they come 5,6,8 or 10 years out. At that point, I\'m a skeptic when it comes to games where you try to look back and describe the causal relationship between the things that you did and the outcomes. It\'s always uncertain and kind of sketchy.”</em></div>', 'Marc Andreessen on time management', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marc-andreessen-on-time-management', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3557', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3558, 1, '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '<div>Marc Andreessen has been an influential thinker and VC for twice as long as Peter Thiel. In this interview with Sriram Krishnan, he focuses on how he manages his time. Based on this interview, we discern five specific strands in Mr Andreessen’s time management philosophy:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Have a well-structured routine from Mon-Fri and follow that routine religiously:</strong> <em>“The day of the week determines a lot. Monday and Friday have very specific schedules because we run in the rhythm of a venture capital firm. There’s an all day sort-of marathon on Monday which is when most of the actual teamwork happens. We also use Friday for that.Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are much more open ended. Those tend to be a lot more outwards-facing and have lots of board meetings, entrepreneur counsels and so on. Running Monday through Friday in this kind of regimented schedule, I do now finally understand why people have the concept of a weekend. I\'m trying my best to preserve Saturday and Sunday for at least a little bit of downtime.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Schedule everything – including sleep, free time and reading time – into your calendar:</strong> <em>“The big thing is basically *everything* is on the calendar. Sleep is on the calendar, going to bed is in there and so is free time. Free time is critical because that\'s the release valve. You can work full tilt for a long time as long as you know you have actual time for yourself coming up. I find if you don\'t schedule enough free time, you get resentful of your own calendar. When I was younger, I didn\'t really have the concept of turning off. But there comes a time, a little bit with age, when your body rebels. And obviously, if you have a family, that’s not great with a system where you\'re just always working.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Don’t schedule your diary to the nth degree; have some free time left in your diary:</strong> <em>“…we’ve both worked with executives where they were scheduled to the ‘nth’ degree. The three things you tend to notice with executives like that. One, they just never have any time to actually think. And that turns out to be a fairly important thing. Two, they have a hard time adjusting to changes in circumstances. In our business of venture capital, you get a lot of problems that come up. There is a lot of firefighting. It\'s like those classic movie scenes when there\'s a huge crisis and somebody calls out to their secretary “Cancel my schedule!”. Well, maybe you wouldn’t need to do that if you had some flexibility in your calendar. Then the other thing you’ve probably seen is the managers who are regimented to that degree end up being micro managers. You’ve probably seen examples of this where some of these folks end up in the weeds on everything. The good news is they\'ve got the pulse of everything happening in the organization. The bad news is they’ve become the bottleneck.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Review your time management every six months and ask yourself if you are focusing on the right things: </strong><em>“One, about every six months or so I feel overwhelmed. It all starts to kind of get away from me. And so typically about every six months, I\'ll basically sit down and do a come-to-Jesus with myself. Which is ‘Okay, you\'ve got this great system, but it\'s becoming overloaded’. And ‘you\'re saying yes to too many things and are involved in too many things’. You really have to uplevel and figure out what\'s important. I usually take a good hour to look at what I\'ve been doing. It’s basically figuring out the threshold for ‘yes’ versus ‘no’. I try to revise that about once a year. Also about once a year, I rewrite my personal plan. I just write from scratch what I\'m actually trying to do and my goals and then line up the activities that are below that. I would say a couple things about time allocation….I do try to have some sort of intuitive sense of what\'s going on and how to rebalance. The firm is built to accomplish what I want to accomplish. And then my role here is to accomplish that within the context of the firm. And so the short answer is always the same - how do we optimize for the success of the firm? For the projects the firm is involved in, how do I optimize my contribution to that?”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Focus on the process, not the outcome: </strong><em>“…we\'re basically all about inputs. It\'s basically process versus outcome…Venture capital is too elongated an activity. We don\'t really know whether something is going to work or not work in the first five years of its life after we passed. And so it’s - okay, what do I learn? Like, what, what do I learn in the first three years when it\'s not working? Because sometimes these companies really struggle for a while and then they really succeed. Sometimes it’s the opposite - they really succeed fast and then they have serious issues later.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>It\'s really hard to get good metaphors but it\'s poker, right? It\'s really, really, really hard to be a good poker player. And if you\'re kicking yourself every time you have a bad hand, the bad habits just simply happen. You just need to be able to have a system that lets you think through the process...</em> <em>Michael Mauboussin has written extensively in his books about this as a profession. The craft of investing as a process of separating process and outcome. We are almost entirely a world of trying to optimize the process. The outcomes come when they come 5,6,8 or 10 years out. At that point, I\'m a skeptic when it comes to games where you try to look back and describe the causal relationship between the things that you did and the outcomes. It\'s always uncertain and kind of sketchy.”</em></div>', 'Marc Andreessen on time management', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3557-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '2020-06-22 08:54:34', '', 3557, 'https://marcellus.in/3557-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3559, 1, '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '<div>Two weeks ago, the World Health Organisation issued a statement saying asymptomatic carriers are rare transmitters of Covid, only to retract the statement hours later. For all our faith in mankind’s scientific prowess, this pandemic has brought to fore the unfortunate truth that several months on from the discovery of the virus, our understanding of the virus and how it spreads is still patchy. This obviously restricts our ability to strategise to minimise infections as we let eocnomies open up. This piece in the WSJ gives some hope as it draws upon several studies and attempts to help us understand how we actually get infected. In summary, the authors suggest three key factors – the proximity with an infected person, the number of contacts with infected persons and the duration of contact with infected persons. The article goes on to elaborate these three factors and the concept of \'superspreadders\' - \"<em>An estimated 10% of people with Covid-19 are responsible for about 80% of transmissions, according to a study...Some people with the virus may have a higher viral load, or produce more droplets when they breathe or speak, or be in a confined space with many people and bad ventilation when they’re at their most infectious point in their illness…”</em><em>“It’s not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.</em>\r\n<em>Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.</em>\r\n<em>These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.</em>\r\n<em>“We should not be thinking of a lockdown, but of ways to increase physical distance…This can include allowing outside activities, allowing walking or cycling to an office with people all physically distant, curbside pickup from stores, and other innovative methods that can facilitate resumption of economic activity without a rekindling of the outbreak.”</em>\r\n<em>One important factor in transmission is that seemingly benign activities like speaking and breathing produce respiratory bits of varying sizes that can disperse along air currents and potentially infect people nearby.</em>\r\n<em>Health agencies have so far identified respiratory-droplet contact as the major mode of Covid-19 transmission. These large fluid droplets can transfer virus from one person to another if they land on the eyes, nose or mouth. But they tend to fall to the ground or on other surfaces pretty quickly.</em>\r\n<em>….Sufficient ventilation in the places people visit and work is very important, said Yuguo Li, one of the authors and an engineering professor at the University of Hong Kong. Proper ventilation—such as forcing air toward the ceiling and pumping it outside, or bringing fresh air into a room—dilutes the amount of virus in a space, lowering the risk of infection.</em>\r\n<em>Another factor is prolonged exposure. That’s generally defined as 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact with someone less than 6 feet away, said John Brooks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s chief medical officer for the Covid-19 response. But that is only a rule of thumb, he cautioned. It could take much less time with a sneeze in the face or other intimate contact where a lot of respiratory droplets are emitted, he said.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a choir event where 87% of those present ended up getting infected attributing the cause to the heavier breathing of singers which increases the likelihood of inhaling infectious particles.\r\n<em>“Similar transmission dynamics could be at play in other settings where heavy breathing and loud talking are common over extended periods, like gyms, musical or theater performances, conferences, weddings and birthday parties. Of 61 clusters of cases in Japan between Jan. 15 and April 4, many involved heavy breathing in close proximity, such as karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, talking in bars and exercising in gyms, according to a recent study in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.</em>\r\n<em>The so-called attack rate—the percentage of people who were infected in a specific place or time—can be very high in crowded events, homes and other spaces where lots of people are in close, prolonged contact.”</em></div>', 'How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-exactly-do-you-catch-covid-19-there-is-a-growing-consensus', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3559', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3560, 1, '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '<div>Two weeks ago, the World Health Organisation issued a statement saying asymptomatic carriers are rare transmitters of Covid, only to retract the statement hours later. For all our faith in mankind’s scientific prowess, this pandemic has brought to fore the unfortunate truth that several months on from the discovery of the virus, our understanding of the virus and how it spreads is still patchy. This obviously restricts our ability to strategise to minimise infections as we let eocnomies open up. This piece in the WSJ gives some hope as it draws upon several studies and attempts to help us understand how we actually get infected. In summary, the authors suggest three key factors – the proximity with an infected person, the number of contacts with infected persons and the duration of contact with infected persons. The article goes on to elaborate these three factors and the concept of \'superspreadders\' - \"<em>An estimated 10% of people with Covid-19 are responsible for about 80% of transmissions, according to a study...Some people with the virus may have a higher viral load, or produce more droplets when they breathe or speak, or be in a confined space with many people and bad ventilation when they’re at their most infectious point in their illness…”</em><em>“It’s not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.</em>\r\n<em>Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.</em>\r\n<em>These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.</em>\r\n<em>“We should not be thinking of a lockdown, but of ways to increase physical distance…This can include allowing outside activities, allowing walking or cycling to an office with people all physically distant, curbside pickup from stores, and other innovative methods that can facilitate resumption of economic activity without a rekindling of the outbreak.”</em>\r\n<em>One important factor in transmission is that seemingly benign activities like speaking and breathing produce respiratory bits of varying sizes that can disperse along air currents and potentially infect people nearby.</em>\r\n<em>Health agencies have so far identified respiratory-droplet contact as the major mode of Covid-19 transmission. These large fluid droplets can transfer virus from one person to another if they land on the eyes, nose or mouth. But they tend to fall to the ground or on other surfaces pretty quickly.</em>\r\n<em>….Sufficient ventilation in the places people visit and work is very important, said Yuguo Li, one of the authors and an engineering professor at the University of Hong Kong. Proper ventilation—such as forcing air toward the ceiling and pumping it outside, or bringing fresh air into a room—dilutes the amount of virus in a space, lowering the risk of infection.</em>\r\n<em>Another factor is prolonged exposure. That’s generally defined as 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact with someone less than 6 feet away, said John Brooks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s chief medical officer for the Covid-19 response. But that is only a rule of thumb, he cautioned. It could take much less time with a sneeze in the face or other intimate contact where a lot of respiratory droplets are emitted, he said.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a choir event where 87% of those present ended up getting infected attributing the cause to the heavier breathing of singers which increases the likelihood of inhaling infectious particles.\r\n<em>“Similar transmission dynamics could be at play in other settings where heavy breathing and loud talking are common over extended periods, like gyms, musical or theater performances, conferences, weddings and birthday parties. Of 61 clusters of cases in Japan between Jan. 15 and April 4, many involved heavy breathing in close proximity, such as karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, talking in bars and exercising in gyms, according to a recent study in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.</em>\r\n<em>The so-called attack rate—the percentage of people who were infected in a specific place or time—can be very high in crowded events, homes and other spaces where lots of people are in close, prolonged contact.”</em></div>', 'How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3559-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '2020-06-22 09:10:44', '', 3559, 'https://marcellus.in/3559-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3561, 1, '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '<div>Few people in fund management can claim to be as iconoclastic as Terry Smith. For many of us at Marcellus, Terry is an inspiration of sorts given the common beliefs and backgrounds. First, Terry never pulled his punches as a sell-side analyst, most famously as an analyst at Barclays for having written a sell note on Barclays itself. Second, a penchant for forensic accounting – Terry wrote a controversial report <em>‘Accounting for growth</em>’ (which later became a best selling book by the same name) talking about accounting frauds by listed companies, only to get fired by his then employer, UBS. Finally, for his outspoken views on the fund management industry’s shenanigans, especially the high fees and expenses resulting from heavy churn. Terry now runs FundSmith which manages over $20bn, where his candid newsletters and annual investor presentations continue to inspire. This blog attempts to summarise the key investing principles from his <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae758b61f4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dae758b61f4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1izqg38IY0GbfZk2m-1n4eDrtpA\">Owners Manual</a>. We’ll highlight a few here but recommend reading the whole thing and if possible the manual itself:\r\n<strong><em>“…We seek to invest in businesses whose assets are intangible and difficult to replicate</em></strong>\r\n<em>It may seem counter-intuitive to seek businesses which do not rely upon tangible assets, but bear with us. The businesses we seek to invest in do something very unusual: they break the rule of mean reversion that states returns must revert to the average as new capital is attracted to business activities earning super-normal returns.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We never engage in “Greater Fool Theory”</em></strong>\r\n<em>We really want to own all of the companies in the Fundsmith Equity Fund. We do not own them knowing that they are not good businesses or are over-valued in the hope that someone more gullible will come along and pay an even higher price for them. We wisely assume that there is no greater fool than us.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The businesses we seek must have growth potential</em></strong>\r\n<em>It is not enough for companies to earn a high unlevered rate of return. Our definition of growth is that they must also be able to reinvest at least a portion of their excess cash flow back into the business to grow while generating a high return on the cash thus reinvested.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We do not attempt market timing</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do not attempt to manage the percentage invested in equities in our portfolio to reflect any view of market levels, timing or developments. Getting market timing right is a skill we do not claim to possess. Looking at their results, neither do many other fund managers, but that does not seem to stop them trying.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We don’t over diversify</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do seek portfolio diversification, but the strictness of our investment criteria will inevitably leave us with a concentrated portfolio of 20 – 30 companies. We do not fear the concentration risk.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Our investments are liquid and the Fundsmith Equity Fund is open-ended</em></strong>\r\n<em>The companies we invest in have large market capitalisations without major blocks being held by controlling shareholders. Therefore their shares are easily tradeable. In addition, the Fundsmith Equity Fund is an OEIC, i.e. an open-ended fund.”</em></div>', 'Terry Smith’s Owners Manual – 14 Filters For Purchasing A Great Investment', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'terry-smiths-owners-manual-14-filters-for-purchasing-a-great-investment', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3561', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3562, 1, '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '<div>Few people in fund management can claim to be as iconoclastic as Terry Smith. For many of us at Marcellus, Terry is an inspiration of sorts given the common beliefs and backgrounds. First, Terry never pulled his punches as a sell-side analyst, most famously as an analyst at Barclays for having written a sell note on Barclays itself. Second, a penchant for forensic accounting – Terry wrote a controversial report <em>‘Accounting for growth</em>’ (which later became a best selling book by the same name) talking about accounting frauds by listed companies, only to get fired by his then employer, UBS. Finally, for his outspoken views on the fund management industry’s shenanigans, especially the high fees and expenses resulting from heavy churn. Terry now runs FundSmith which manages over $20bn, where his candid newsletters and annual investor presentations continue to inspire. This blog attempts to summarise the key investing principles from his <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae758b61f4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dae758b61f4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1izqg38IY0GbfZk2m-1n4eDrtpA\">Owners Manual</a>. We’ll highlight a few here but recommend reading the whole thing and if possible the manual itself:\r\n<strong><em>“…We seek to invest in businesses whose assets are intangible and difficult to replicate</em></strong>\r\n<em>It may seem counter-intuitive to seek businesses which do not rely upon tangible assets, but bear with us. The businesses we seek to invest in do something very unusual: they break the rule of mean reversion that states returns must revert to the average as new capital is attracted to business activities earning super-normal returns.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We never engage in “Greater Fool Theory”</em></strong>\r\n<em>We really want to own all of the companies in the Fundsmith Equity Fund. We do not own them knowing that they are not good businesses or are over-valued in the hope that someone more gullible will come along and pay an even higher price for them. We wisely assume that there is no greater fool than us.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The businesses we seek must have growth potential</em></strong>\r\n<em>It is not enough for companies to earn a high unlevered rate of return. Our definition of growth is that they must also be able to reinvest at least a portion of their excess cash flow back into the business to grow while generating a high return on the cash thus reinvested.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We do not attempt market timing</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do not attempt to manage the percentage invested in equities in our portfolio to reflect any view of market levels, timing or developments. Getting market timing right is a skill we do not claim to possess. Looking at their results, neither do many other fund managers, but that does not seem to stop them trying.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We don’t over diversify</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do seek portfolio diversification, but the strictness of our investment criteria will inevitably leave us with a concentrated portfolio of 20 – 30 companies. We do not fear the concentration risk.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Our investments are liquid and the Fundsmith Equity Fund is open-ended</em></strong>\r\n<em>The companies we invest in have large market capitalisations without major blocks being held by controlling shareholders. Therefore their shares are easily tradeable. In addition, the Fundsmith Equity Fund is an OEIC, i.e. an open-ended fund.”</em></div>', 'Terry Smith’s Owners Manual – 14 Filters For Purchasing A Great Investment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3561-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '2020-06-22 09:20:52', '', 3561, 'https://marcellus.in/3561-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3563, 1, '2020-06-22 09:27:17', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2020-06-22 09:27:17', '2020-06-22 09:27:17', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?p=3563', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(3564, 1, '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'robert-clive-was-a-vicious-asset-stripper-his-statue-has-no-place-on-whitehall', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3564', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3565, 1, '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3564-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '2020-06-22 09:35:10', '', 3564, 'https://marcellus.in/3564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3566, 1, '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>This week’s The Economist carries this piece in its <em>Leaders</em> section with a caricature of Jeff Bezos that has a mischievous resemblance to Dr Evil of Austin Powers fame. The article highlights that indeed the pandemic and the lockdown have clearly boosted the prospects of e-commerce, what with a whole of host of consumers who hitherto shied away from digital transactions now forced to being recruited as the next leg of e-commerce customers. With WFH here to stay and the surge in online communication has also given a leg up for cloud computing and infrastructure which also benefits Amazon’s supremely profitable AWS (Amazon Web Services) business. However, the article also highlights three challenges for Amazon – <em>“fraying social contract, financial bloating and re-energised competition”</em>\r\nMuch has been written about Amazon’s handling of employees with low wages and stretched targets. Alongside this, regulators have also been looking at privacy laws that deal with customer data and conflicts of interests with its supplier base competing with its own products on its platform.\r\n<em>“…Amazon’s strategy does imply huge creative disruption in the jobs market even as the economy reels. In addition, viral outbreaks at its warehouses have reignited fears about working conditions: 13 American state attorneys-general have voiced concern. And Amazon’s role as a digital jack-of-all-trades creates conflicts of interest. Does its platform, for example, treat third-party sellers on equal terms with its own products? Congress and the EU are investigating this. And how comfortable should other firms be about giving their sensitive data to aws given that it is part of a larger conglomerate which competes with them?”</em>\r\nSecond, as much as investors believe big tech’s asset light model as a huge advantage, Amazon’s assets are no longer primarily intangible. <em>“As Mr Bezos has expanded into industry after industry, his firm has gone from being asset-light to having a balance-sheet heavier than a Soviet tractor factory. Today it has $104bn of plant, including leased assets, not far off the $119bn of its old-economy rival, Walmart. As a result, returns excluding aws are puny and the pandemic is squeezing margins in e-commerce further. Mr Bezos says the firm can become more than the sum of its parts by harvesting data and selling ads and subscriptions. So far investors have taken this on trust. But the weak e-commerce margins make it harder for Amazon to spin off aws. This would get regulators off its back and liberate AWS, but would deprive Amazon of the money-machine that funds everything else.”</em>\r\nFinally, the surge in the market opportunity for e-commerce hasn’t gone unnoticed with competitive intensity picking up. <em>“…[Bezos] has long said that he watches customers, not competitors, but he must have noticed how his rivals have been energised by the pandemic. Digital sales at Walmart, Target and Costco probably doubled or more in April, year on year. Independent digital firms are thriving. If you create a stockmarket clone of Amazon lookalikes, including Shopify, Netflix and ups, it has outperformed Amazon this year. In much of the world regional competitors rule, not Amazon; among them are MercadoLibre in Latin America, Jio in India and Shopee in South-East Asia. China is dominated by Alibaba, <a href=\"http://jd.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://jd.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEUgk_OnIrfu4a1aMuVgNm-sejTuA\">jd.com</a> and brash new contenders like Pinduoduo.”</em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"middle\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\" width=\"24\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'The pandemic has shown that amazon is essential - but vulnerable', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-pandemic-has-shown-that-amazon-is-essential-but-vulnerable', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:13:18', '2020-06-29 05:13:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3566', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3567, 1, '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>This week’s The Economist carries this piece in its <em>Leaders</em> section with a caricature of Jeff Bezos that has a mischievous resemblance to Dr Evil of Austin Powers fame. The article highlights that indeed the pandemic and the lockdown have clearly boosted the prospects of e-commerce, what with a whole of host of consumers who hitherto shied away from digital transactions now forced to being recruited as the next leg of e-commerce customers. With WFH here to stay and the surge in online communication has also given a leg up for cloud computing and infrastructure which also benefits Amazon’s supremely profitable AWS (Amazon Web Services) business. However, the article also highlights three challenges for Amazon – <em>“fraying social contract, financial bloating and re-energised competition”</em>\r\nMuch has been written about Amazon’s handling of employees with low wages and stretched targets. Alongside this, regulators have also been looking at privacy laws that deal with customer data and conflicts of interests with its supplier base competing with its own products on its platform.\r\n<em>“…Amazon’s strategy does imply huge creative disruption in the jobs market even as the economy reels. In addition, viral outbreaks at its warehouses have reignited fears about working conditions: 13 American state attorneys-general have voiced concern. And Amazon’s role as a digital jack-of-all-trades creates conflicts of interest. Does its platform, for example, treat third-party sellers on equal terms with its own products? Congress and the EU are investigating this. And how comfortable should other firms be about giving their sensitive data to aws given that it is part of a larger conglomerate which competes with them?”</em>\r\nSecond, as much as investors believe big tech’s asset light model as a huge advantage, Amazon’s assets are no longer primarily intangible. <em>“As Mr Bezos has expanded into industry after industry, his firm has gone from being asset-light to having a balance-sheet heavier than a Soviet tractor factory. Today it has $104bn of plant, including leased assets, not far off the $119bn of its old-economy rival, Walmart. As a result, returns excluding aws are puny and the pandemic is squeezing margins in e-commerce further. Mr Bezos says the firm can become more than the sum of its parts by harvesting data and selling ads and subscriptions. So far investors have taken this on trust. But the weak e-commerce margins make it harder for Amazon to spin off aws. This would get regulators off its back and liberate AWS, but would deprive Amazon of the money-machine that funds everything else.”</em>\r\nFinally, the surge in the market opportunity for e-commerce hasn’t gone unnoticed with competitive intensity picking up. <em>“…[Bezos] has long said that he watches customers, not competitors, but he must have noticed how his rivals have been energised by the pandemic. Digital sales at Walmart, Target and Costco probably doubled or more in April, year on year. Independent digital firms are thriving. If you create a stockmarket clone of Amazon lookalikes, including Shopify, Netflix and ups, it has outperformed Amazon this year. In much of the world regional competitors rule, not Amazon; among them are MercadoLibre in Latin America, Jio in India and Shopee in South-East Asia. China is dominated by Alibaba, <a href=\"http://jd.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://jd.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEUgk_OnIrfu4a1aMuVgNm-sejTuA\">jd.com</a> and brash new contenders like Pinduoduo.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"middle\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\" width=\"24\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'The pandemic has shown that amazon is essential - but vulnerable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3566-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '2020-06-22 09:42:29', '', 3566, 'https://marcellus.in/3566-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3568, 1, '2020-06-22 10:11:03', '2020-06-22 10:11:03', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>This week’s The Economist carries this piece in its <em>Leaders</em> section with a caricature of Jeff Bezos that has a mischievous resemblance to Dr Evil of Austin Powers fame. The article highlights that indeed the pandemic and the lockdown have clearly boosted the prospects of e-commerce, what with a whole of host of consumers who hitherto shied away from digital transactions now forced to being recruited as the next leg of e-commerce customers. With WFH here to stay and the surge in online communication has also given a leg up for cloud computing and infrastructure which also benefits Amazon’s supremely profitable AWS (Amazon Web Services) business. However, the article also highlights three challenges for Amazon – <em>“fraying social contract, financial bloating and re-energised competition”</em>\r\nMuch has been written about Amazon’s handling of employees with low wages and stretched targets. Alongside this, regulators have also been looking at privacy laws that deal with customer data and conflicts of interests with its supplier base competing with its own products on its platform.\r\n<em>“…Amazon’s strategy does imply huge creative disruption in the jobs market even as the economy reels. In addition, viral outbreaks at its warehouses have reignited fears about working conditions: 13 American state attorneys-general have voiced concern. And Amazon’s role as a digital jack-of-all-trades creates conflicts of interest. Does its platform, for example, treat third-party sellers on equal terms with its own products? Congress and the EU are investigating this. And how comfortable should other firms be about giving their sensitive data to aws given that it is part of a larger conglomerate which competes with them?”</em>\r\nSecond, as much as investors believe big tech’s asset light model as a huge advantage, Amazon’s assets are no longer primarily intangible. <em>“As Mr Bezos has expanded into industry after industry, his firm has gone from being asset-light to having a balance-sheet heavier than a Soviet tractor factory. Today it has $104bn of plant, including leased assets, not far off the $119bn of its old-economy rival, Walmart. As a result, returns excluding aws are puny and the pandemic is squeezing margins in e-commerce further. Mr Bezos says the firm can become more than the sum of its parts by harvesting data and selling ads and subscriptions. So far investors have taken this on trust. But the weak e-commerce margins make it harder for Amazon to spin off aws. This would get regulators off its back and liberate AWS, but would deprive Amazon of the money-machine that funds everything else.”</em>\r\nFinally, the surge in the market opportunity for e-commerce hasn’t gone unnoticed with competitive intensity picking up. <em>“…[Bezos] has long said that he watches customers, not competitors, but he must have noticed how his rivals have been energised by the pandemic. Digital sales at Walmart, Target and Costco probably doubled or more in April, year on year. Independent digital firms are thriving. If you create a stockmarket clone of Amazon lookalikes, including Shopify, Netflix and ups, it has outperformed Amazon this year. In much of the world regional competitors rule, not Amazon; among them are MercadoLibre in Latin America, Jio in India and Shopee in South-East Asia. China is dominated by Alibaba, <a href=\"http://jd.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://jd.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEUgk_OnIrfu4a1aMuVgNm-sejTuA\">jd.com</a> and brash new contenders like Pinduoduo.”</em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\r\n\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"middle\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\" width=\"24\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'The pandemic has shown that amazon is essential - but vulnerable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3566-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 10:11:03', '2020-06-22 10:11:03', '', 3566, 'https://marcellus.in/3566-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
INSERT INTO `mr_posts` (`ID`, `post_author`, `post_date`, `post_date_gmt`, `post_content`, `post_title`, `post_excerpt`, `post_status`, `comment_status`, `ping_status`, `post_password`, `post_name`, `to_ping`, `pinged`, `post_modified`, `post_modified_gmt`, `post_content_filtered`, `post_parent`, `guid`, `menu_order`, `post_type`, `post_mime_type`, `comment_count`) VALUES
(3569, 1, '2020-06-22 10:29:08', '2020-06-22 10:29:08', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>This week’s The Economist carries this piece in its <em>Leaders</em> section with a caricature of Jeff Bezos that has a mischievous resemblance to Dr Evil of Austin Powers fame. The article highlights that indeed the pandemic and the lockdown have clearly boosted the prospects of e-commerce, what with a whole of host of consumers who hitherto shied away from digital transactions now forced to being recruited as the next leg of e-commerce customers. With WFH here to stay and the surge in online communication has also given a leg up for cloud computing and infrastructure which also benefits Amazon’s supremely profitable AWS (Amazon Web Services) business. However, the article also highlights three challenges for Amazon – <em>“fraying social contract, financial bloating and re-energised competition”</em>\nMuch has been written about Amazon’s handling of employees with low wages and stretched targets. Alongside this, regulators have also been looking at privacy laws that deal with customer data and conflicts of interests with its supplier base competing with its own products on its platform.\n<em>“…Amazon’s strategy does imply huge creative disruption in the jobs market even as the economy reels. In addition, viral outbreaks at its warehouses have reignited fears about working conditions: 13 American state attorneys-general have voiced concern. And Amazon’s role as a digital jack-of-all-trades creates conflicts of interest. Does its platform, for example, treat third-party sellers on equal terms with its own products? Congress and the EU are investigating this. And how comfortable should other firms be about giving their sensitive data to aws given that it is part of a larger conglomerate which competes with them?”</em>\nSecond, as much as investors believe big tech’s asset light model as a huge advantage, Amazon’s assets are no longer primarily intangible. <em>“As Mr Bezos has expanded into industry after industry, his firm has gone from being asset-light to having a balance-sheet heavier than a Soviet tractor factory. Today it has $104bn of plant, including leased assets, not far off the $119bn of its old-economy rival, Walmart. As a result, returns excluding aws are puny and the pandemic is squeezing margins in e-commerce further. Mr Bezos says the firm can become more than the sum of its parts by harvesting data and selling ads and subscriptions. So far investors have taken this on trust. But the weak e-commerce margins make it harder for Amazon to spin off aws. This would get regulators off its back and liberate AWS, but would deprive Amazon of the money-machine that funds everything else.”</em>\nFinally, the surge in the market opportunity for e-commerce hasn’t gone unnoticed with competitive intensity picking up. <em>“…[Bezos] has long said that he watches customers, not competitors, but he must have noticed how his rivals have been energised by the pandemic. Digital sales at Walmart, Target and Costco probably doubled or more in April, year on year. Independent digital firms are thriving. If you create a stockmarket clone of Amazon lookalikes, including Shopify, Netflix and ups, it has outperformed Amazon this year. In much of the world regional competitors rule, not Amazon; among them are MercadoLibre in Latin America, Jio in India and Shopee in South-East Asia. China is dominated by Alibaba, <a href=\"http://jd.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://jd.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEUgk_OnIrfu4a1aMuVgNm-sejTuA\">jd.com</a> and brash new contenders like Pinduoduo.”</em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.\n\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n</div></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"middle\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\" width=\"24\"></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>', 'The pandemic has shown that amazon is essential - but vulnerable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3566-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 10:29:08', '2020-06-22 10:29:08', '', 3566, 'https://marcellus.in/3566-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3573, 1, '2020-06-22 11:08:16', '2020-06-22 11:08:16', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3564-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:08:16', '2020-06-22 11:08:16', '', 3564, 'https://marcellus.in/3564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3571, 1, '2020-06-22 10:53:54', '2020-06-22 10:53:54', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3564-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 10:53:54', '2020-06-22 10:53:54', '', 3564, 'https://marcellus.in/3564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3572, 1, '2020-06-22 11:04:43', '2020-06-22 11:04:43', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>\r\n<div>This week’s The Economist carries this piece in its <em>Leaders</em> section with a caricature of Jeff Bezos that has a mischievous resemblance to Dr Evil of Austin Powers fame. The article highlights that indeed the pandemic and the lockdown have clearly boosted the prospects of e-commerce, what with a whole of host of consumers who hitherto shied away from digital transactions now forced to being recruited as the next leg of e-commerce customers. With WFH here to stay and the surge in online communication has also given a leg up for cloud computing and infrastructure which also benefits Amazon’s supremely profitable AWS (Amazon Web Services) business. However, the article also highlights three challenges for Amazon – <em>“fraying social contract, financial bloating and re-energised competition”</em>\r\nMuch has been written about Amazon’s handling of employees with low wages and stretched targets. Alongside this, regulators have also been looking at privacy laws that deal with customer data and conflicts of interests with its supplier base competing with its own products on its platform.\r\n<em>“…Amazon’s strategy does imply huge creative disruption in the jobs market even as the economy reels. In addition, viral outbreaks at its warehouses have reignited fears about working conditions: 13 American state attorneys-general have voiced concern. And Amazon’s role as a digital jack-of-all-trades creates conflicts of interest. Does its platform, for example, treat third-party sellers on equal terms with its own products? Congress and the EU are investigating this. And how comfortable should other firms be about giving their sensitive data to aws given that it is part of a larger conglomerate which competes with them?”</em>\r\nSecond, as much as investors believe big tech’s asset light model as a huge advantage, Amazon’s assets are no longer primarily intangible. <em>“As Mr Bezos has expanded into industry after industry, his firm has gone from being asset-light to having a balance-sheet heavier than a Soviet tractor factory. Today it has $104bn of plant, including leased assets, not far off the $119bn of its old-economy rival, Walmart. As a result, returns excluding aws are puny and the pandemic is squeezing margins in e-commerce further. Mr Bezos says the firm can become more than the sum of its parts by harvesting data and selling ads and subscriptions. So far investors have taken this on trust. But the weak e-commerce margins make it harder for Amazon to spin off aws. This would get regulators off its back and liberate AWS, but would deprive Amazon of the money-machine that funds everything else.”</em>\r\nFinally, the surge in the market opportunity for e-commerce hasn’t gone unnoticed with competitive intensity picking up. <em>“…[Bezos] has long said that he watches customers, not competitors, but he must have noticed how his rivals have been energised by the pandemic. Digital sales at Walmart, Target and Costco probably doubled or more in April, year on year. Independent digital firms are thriving. If you create a stockmarket clone of Amazon lookalikes, including Shopify, Netflix and ups, it has outperformed Amazon this year. In much of the world regional competitors rule, not Amazon; among them are MercadoLibre in Latin America, Jio in India and Shopee in South-East Asia. China is dominated by Alibaba, <a href=\"http://jd.com/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=http://jd.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEUgk_OnIrfu4a1aMuVgNm-sejTuA\">jd.com</a> and brash new contenders like Pinduoduo.”</em>Note: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div>\r\n</div></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td id=\"m_-517800199048556204m_-5544659315394389153templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"center\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td valign=\"top\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"middle\">\r\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\" width=\"24\"></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'The pandemic has shown that amazon is essential - but vulnerable', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3566-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:04:43', '2020-06-22 11:04:43', '', 3566, 'https://marcellus.in/3566-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3574, 1, '2020-06-22 11:14:12', '2020-06-22 11:14:12', '<div>Few people in fund management can claim to be as iconoclastic as Terry Smith. For many of us at Marcellus, Terry is an inspiration of sorts given the common beliefs and backgrounds. First, Terry never pulled his punches as a sell-side analyst, most famously as an analyst at Barclays for having written a sell note on Barclays itself. Second, a penchant for forensic accounting – Terry wrote a controversial report <em>‘Accounting for growth</em>’ (which later became a best selling book by the same name) talking about accounting frauds by listed companies, only to get fired by his then employer, UBS. Finally, for his outspoken views on the fund management industry’s shenanigans, especially the high fees and expenses resulting from heavy churn. Terry now runs FundSmith which manages over $20bn, where his candid newsletters and annual investor presentations continue to inspire. This blog attempts to summarise the key investing principles from his <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae758b61f4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dae758b61f4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1izqg38IY0GbfZk2m-1n4eDrtpA\">Owners Manual</a>. We’ll highlight a few here but recommend reading the whole thing and if possible the manual itself:\r\n<strong><em>“…We seek to invest in businesses whose assets are intangible and difficult to replicate</em></strong>\r\n<em>It may seem counter-intuitive to seek businesses which do not rely upon tangible assets, but bear with us. The businesses we seek to invest in do something very unusual: they break the rule of mean reversion that states returns must revert to the average as new capital is attracted to business activities earning super-normal returns.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We never engage in “Greater Fool Theory”</em></strong>\r\n<em>We really want to own all of the companies in the Fundsmith Equity Fund. We do not own them knowing that they are not good businesses or are over-valued in the hope that someone more gullible will come along and pay an even higher price for them. We wisely assume that there is no greater fool than us.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The businesses we seek must have growth potential</em></strong>\r\n<em>It is not enough for companies to earn a high unlevered rate of return. Our definition of growth is that they must also be able to reinvest at least a portion of their excess cash flow back into the business to grow while generating a high return on the cash thus reinvested.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We do not attempt market timing</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do not attempt to manage the percentage invested in equities in our portfolio to reflect any view of market levels, timing or developments. Getting market timing right is a skill we do not claim to possess. Looking at their results, neither do many other fund managers, but that does not seem to stop them trying.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We don’t over diversify</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do seek portfolio diversification, but the strictness of our investment criteria will inevitably leave us with a concentrated portfolio of 20 – 30 companies. We do not fear the concentration risk.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Our investments are liquid and the Fundsmith Equity Fund is open-ended</em></strong>\r\n<em>The companies we invest in have large market capitalisations without major blocks being held by controlling shareholders. Therefore their shares are easily tradeable. In addition, the Fundsmith Equity Fund is an OEIC, i.e. an open-ended fund.”</em></div>', 'Terry Smith’s Owners Manual – 14 Filters For Purchasing A Great Investment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3561-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:14:12', '2020-06-22 11:14:12', '', 3561, 'https://marcellus.in/3561-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3575, 1, '2020-06-22 11:18:06', '2020-06-22 11:18:06', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3564-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:18:06', '2020-06-22 11:18:06', '', 3564, 'https://marcellus.in/3564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3576, 1, '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '<div>Few people in fund management can claim to be as iconoclastic as Terry Smith. For many of us at Marcellus, Terry is an inspiration of sorts given the common beliefs and backgrounds. First, Terry never pulled his punches as a sell-side analyst, most famously as an analyst at Barclays for having written a sell note on Barclays itself. Second, a penchant for forensic accounting – Terry wrote a controversial report <em>‘Accounting for growth</em>’ (which later became a best selling book by the same name) talking about accounting frauds by listed companies, only to get fired by his then employer, UBS. Finally, for his outspoken views on the fund management industry’s shenanigans, especially the high fees and expenses resulting from heavy churn. Terry now runs FundSmith which manages over $20bn, where his candid newsletters and annual investor presentations continue to inspire. This blog attempts to summarise the key investing principles from his <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=ae758b61f4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dae758b61f4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1izqg38IY0GbfZk2m-1n4eDrtpA\">Owners Manual</a>. We’ll highlight a few here but recommend reading the whole thing and if possible the manual itself:\r\n<strong><em>“…We seek to invest in businesses whose assets are intangible and difficult to replicate</em></strong>\r\n<em>It may seem counter-intuitive to seek businesses which do not rely upon tangible assets, but bear with us. The businesses we seek to invest in do something very unusual: they break the rule of mean reversion that states returns must revert to the average as new capital is attracted to business activities earning super-normal returns.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We never engage in “Greater Fool Theory”</em></strong>\r\n<em>We really want to own all of the companies in the Fundsmith Equity Fund. We do not own them knowing that they are not good businesses or are over-valued in the hope that someone more gullible will come along and pay an even higher price for them. We wisely assume that there is no greater fool than us.</em>\r\n<strong><em>The businesses we seek must have growth potential</em></strong>\r\n<em>It is not enough for companies to earn a high unlevered rate of return. Our definition of growth is that they must also be able to reinvest at least a portion of their excess cash flow back into the business to grow while generating a high return on the cash thus reinvested.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We do not attempt market timing</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do not attempt to manage the percentage invested in equities in our portfolio to reflect any view of market levels, timing or developments. Getting market timing right is a skill we do not claim to possess. Looking at their results, neither do many other fund managers, but that does not seem to stop them trying.</em>\r\n<strong><em>We don’t over diversify</em></strong>\r\n<em>We do seek portfolio diversification, but the strictness of our investment criteria will inevitably leave us with a concentrated portfolio of 20 – 30 companies. We do not fear the concentration risk.</em>\r\n<strong><em>Our investments are liquid and the Fundsmith Equity Fund is open-ended</em></strong>\r\n<em>The companies we invest in have large market capitalisations without major blocks being held by controlling shareholders. Therefore their shares are easily tradeable. In addition, the Fundsmith Equity Fund is an OEIC, i.e. an open-ended fund.”</em></div>', 'Terry Smith’s Owners Manual – 14 Filters For Purchasing A Great Investment', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3561-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '2020-06-22 11:20:04', '', 3561, 'https://marcellus.in/3561-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3577, 1, '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '<div>Two weeks ago, the World Health Organisation issued a statement saying asymptomatic carriers are rare transmitters of Covid, only to retract the statement hours later. For all our faith in mankind’s scientific prowess, this pandemic has brought to fore the unfortunate truth that several months on from the discovery of the virus, our understanding of the virus and how it spreads is still patchy. This obviously restricts our ability to strategise to minimise infections as we let eocnomies open up. This piece in the WSJ gives some hope as it draws upon several studies and attempts to help us understand how we actually get infected. In summary, the authors suggest three key factors – the proximity with an infected person, the number of contacts with infected persons and the duration of contact with infected persons. The article goes on to elaborate these three factors and the concept of \'superspreadders\' - \"<em>An estimated 10% of people with Covid-19 are responsible for about 80% of transmissions, according to a study...Some people with the virus may have a higher viral load, or produce more droplets when they breathe or speak, or be in a confined space with many people and bad ventilation when they’re at their most infectious point in their illness…”</em><em>“It’s not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.</em>\r\n<em>Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.</em>\r\n<em>These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.</em>\r\n<em>“We should not be thinking of a lockdown, but of ways to increase physical distance…This can include allowing outside activities, allowing walking or cycling to an office with people all physically distant, curbside pickup from stores, and other innovative methods that can facilitate resumption of economic activity without a rekindling of the outbreak.”</em>\r\n<em>One important factor in transmission is that seemingly benign activities like speaking and breathing produce respiratory bits of varying sizes that can disperse along air currents and potentially infect people nearby.</em>\r\n<em>Health agencies have so far identified respiratory-droplet contact as the major mode of Covid-19 transmission. These large fluid droplets can transfer virus from one person to another if they land on the eyes, nose or mouth. But they tend to fall to the ground or on other surfaces pretty quickly.</em>\r\n<em>….Sufficient ventilation in the places people visit and work is very important, said Yuguo Li, one of the authors and an engineering professor at the University of Hong Kong. Proper ventilation—such as forcing air toward the ceiling and pumping it outside, or bringing fresh air into a room—dilutes the amount of virus in a space, lowering the risk of infection.</em>\r\n<em>Another factor is prolonged exposure. That’s generally defined as 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact with someone less than 6 feet away, said John Brooks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s chief medical officer for the Covid-19 response. But that is only a rule of thumb, he cautioned. It could take much less time with a sneeze in the face or other intimate contact where a lot of respiratory droplets are emitted, he said.”</em>\r\nThe article talks about a choir event where 87% of those present ended up getting infected attributing the cause to the heavier breathing of singers which increases the likelihood of inhaling infectious particles.\r\n<em>“Similar transmission dynamics could be at play in other settings where heavy breathing and loud talking are common over extended periods, like gyms, musical or theater performances, conferences, weddings and birthday parties. Of 61 clusters of cases in Japan between Jan. 15 and April 4, many involved heavy breathing in close proximity, such as karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, talking in bars and exercising in gyms, according to a recent study in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.</em>\r\n<em>The so-called attack rate—the percentage of people who were infected in a specific place or time—can be very high in crowded events, homes and other spaces where lots of people are in close, prolonged contact.”</em></div>', 'How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3559-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '2020-06-22 11:23:42', '', 3559, 'https://marcellus.in/3559-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3578, 1, '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '<div>Marc Andreessen has been an influential thinker and VC for twice as long as Peter Thiel. In this interview with Sriram Krishnan, he focuses on how he manages his time. Based on this interview, we discern five specific strands in Mr Andreessen’s time management philosophy:</div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Have a well-structured routine from Mon-Fri and follow that routine religiously:</strong> <em>“The day of the week determines a lot. Monday and Friday have very specific schedules because we run in the rhythm of a venture capital firm. There’s an all day sort-of marathon on Monday which is when most of the actual teamwork happens. We also use Friday for that.Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays are much more open ended. Those tend to be a lot more outwards-facing and have lots of board meetings, entrepreneur counsels and so on. Running Monday through Friday in this kind of regimented schedule, I do now finally understand why people have the concept of a weekend. I\'m trying my best to preserve Saturday and Sunday for at least a little bit of downtime.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Schedule everything – including sleep, free time and reading time – into your calendar:</strong> <em>“The big thing is basically *everything* is on the calendar. Sleep is on the calendar, going to bed is in there and so is free time. Free time is critical because that\'s the release valve. You can work full tilt for a long time as long as you know you have actual time for yourself coming up. I find if you don\'t schedule enough free time, you get resentful of your own calendar. When I was younger, I didn\'t really have the concept of turning off. But there comes a time, a little bit with age, when your body rebels. And obviously, if you have a family, that’s not great with a system where you\'re just always working.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Don’t schedule your diary to the nth degree; have some free time left in your diary:</strong> <em>“…we’ve both worked with executives where they were scheduled to the ‘nth’ degree. The three things you tend to notice with executives like that. One, they just never have any time to actually think. And that turns out to be a fairly important thing. Two, they have a hard time adjusting to changes in circumstances. In our business of venture capital, you get a lot of problems that come up. There is a lot of firefighting. It\'s like those classic movie scenes when there\'s a huge crisis and somebody calls out to their secretary “Cancel my schedule!”. Well, maybe you wouldn’t need to do that if you had some flexibility in your calendar. Then the other thing you’ve probably seen is the managers who are regimented to that degree end up being micro managers. You’ve probably seen examples of this where some of these folks end up in the weeds on everything. The good news is they\'ve got the pulse of everything happening in the organization. The bad news is they’ve become the bottleneck.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Review your time management every six months and ask yourself if you are focusing on the right things: </strong><em>“One, about every six months or so I feel overwhelmed. It all starts to kind of get away from me. And so typically about every six months, I\'ll basically sit down and do a come-to-Jesus with myself. Which is ‘Okay, you\'ve got this great system, but it\'s becoming overloaded’. And ‘you\'re saying yes to too many things and are involved in too many things’. You really have to uplevel and figure out what\'s important. I usually take a good hour to look at what I\'ve been doing. It’s basically figuring out the threshold for ‘yes’ versus ‘no’. I try to revise that about once a year. Also about once a year, I rewrite my personal plan. I just write from scratch what I\'m actually trying to do and my goals and then line up the activities that are below that. I would say a couple things about time allocation….I do try to have some sort of intuitive sense of what\'s going on and how to rebalance. The firm is built to accomplish what I want to accomplish. And then my role here is to accomplish that within the context of the firm. And so the short answer is always the same - how do we optimize for the success of the firm? For the projects the firm is involved in, how do I optimize my contribution to that?”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><strong>Focus on the process, not the outcome: </strong><em>“…we\'re basically all about inputs. It\'s basically process versus outcome…Venture capital is too elongated an activity. We don\'t really know whether something is going to work or not work in the first five years of its life after we passed. And so it’s - okay, what do I learn? Like, what, what do I learn in the first three years when it\'s not working? Because sometimes these companies really struggle for a while and then they really succeed. Sometimes it’s the opposite - they really succeed fast and then they have serious issues later.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>It\'s really hard to get good metaphors but it\'s poker, right? It\'s really, really, really hard to be a good poker player. And if you\'re kicking yourself every time you have a bad hand, the bad habits just simply happen. You just need to be able to have a system that lets you think through the process...</em> <em>Michael Mauboussin has written extensively in his books about this as a profession. The craft of investing as a process of separating process and outcome. We are almost entirely a world of trying to optimize the process. The outcomes come when they come 5,6,8 or 10 years out. At that point, I\'m a skeptic when it comes to games where you try to look back and describe the causal relationship between the things that you did and the outcomes. It\'s always uncertain and kind of sketchy.”</em></div>', 'Marc Andreessen on time management', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3557-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '2020-06-22 11:26:51', '', 3557, 'https://marcellus.in/3557-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3579, 1, '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '<div>As Indians attempt to build an <em>“Atmanirbhar Bharat”</em> (self-reliant India), here’s a piece about a man who triggered India’s economic collapse from being the world’s leading manufacturing nation.  As the ‘Black Lives Matter’ anti-racism protests have gained ground, protestors and even governments across the world have been pulling down statues of historical figures whose lives have been linked to racism and slavery, ranging from George Washington to Christopher Columbus. One enthusiast has even written a helpful blog on <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=867ca4b310&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D867ca4b310%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1592901556891000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXeSMIGzF0xtEhSP3ZNHc2QO8BpA\">\"How to topple a statue using science\".</a> In this piece in The Guardian though, William Darlymple, historian and author, calls for the statue of Robert Clive in Whitehall to be pulled down and links it to a broader call for the British to acknowledge the dark side of Colonialism. Robert Clive is known to have established the British rule in India by taking over Bengal at the Battle of Plassey.\r\nDarlymple writes how Clive was <em>“widely reviled as one of the most hated men in England”</em> including the state and himself – he supposedly killed himself for his conscience was burdened by his heinous crimes in India.\r\n<em>“His body was buried in a secret night-time ceremony, in an unmarked grave, without a plaque. Clive left no suicide note, but Samuel Johnson reflected the widespread view as to his motives: Clive “had acquired his fortune by such crimes that his consciousness of them impelled him to cut his own throat”.</em>\r\n<em>...Clive’s death followed soon after two whistleblowers had revealed the scale of the devastation and asset-stripping of Bengal under his rule. “We have murdered, deposed, plundered and usurped,” wrote Horace Walpole. “Say what think you of the famine in Bengal, in which three millions perished, being caused by a monopoly of the provisions by the East India Company?” That summer, a satire was published in London lampooning Clive as Lord Vulture, an unstable imperial harpy, “utterly deaf to every sentiment of justice and humanity… whose avarice knows no bounds”.</em>\r\nYet, Clive’s image went through a makeover to be labelled a hero:\r\n<em>“But just as statues of defeated Confederate generals rose in the southern United States, long after their deaths, as totems to a white supremacy that was felt to be under threat during the civil rights movement, so, in due course, Clive was subject to an equally remarkable metamorphosis: in the early 20th century, as resistance was beginning to threaten the foundations of the Raj, Lord Vulture was miraculously transformed into the heroic Clive of India”</em>\r\nDarlymple insists that the #BLM movement is an appropriate time to pull Clive’s statue down:\r\n<em>“…the moment has definitely come for it to be sent to a museum. There it can be used to instruct future generations about the darkest chapters of the British past.</em>\r\n<em>…In Britain, study of the empire is still largely absent from the history curriculum… We remain almost entirely ignorant about the long history of atrocities and exploitation that accompanied the building of our colonial system. Now, more than ever, we badly need to understand what is common knowledge elsewhere: that for much of history we were an aggressively racist and expansionist force responsible for violence, injustice and war crimes on every continent.</em>\r\n<em>We also need to know how far the British, every bit as much as the Germans, helped codify a system of scientific racism, creating a hierarchy of race that put white Caucasians at the top and blacks, “wandering Jews” and Indian Muslims at the bottom. Yet while the Germans have faced up to the darkest periods of their past, and are taught about it unvarnished in their schools, we have not even made a start to this process. Instead, while we understand that the Belgian and German empires were deeply sinister, the Raj, we like to believe, was like some enormous rose-tinted Merchant Ivory film writ large over the plains of Hindustan, all parasols and Simla tea parties, friendly elephants and handsome, croquet-playing maharajahs.”</em>\r\nDarlymple ends by quantifying the extent of damage the British rule wrecked on the Indian economy:\r\n<em>“…Indians, in particular, have bitter memories of British rule. In their eyes we came as looters, and subjected them to centuries of humiliation. The economic figures speak for themselves. In 1600, when the East India Company was founded, Britain was generating 1.8% of the world’s GDP, while India was producing 22.5%. By the peak of the Raj, those figures had more or less been reversed: India was reduced from the world’s leading manufacturing nation to a symbol of famine and deprivation.”</em></div>', 'Robert Clive was a vicious asset-stripper. His statue has no place on Whitehall', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3564-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '2020-06-22 11:31:31', '', 3564, 'https://marcellus.in/3564-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3670, 1, '2020-06-29 05:20:30', '2020-06-29 05:20:30', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3667-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:20:30', '2020-06-29 05:20:30', '', 3667, 'https://marcellus.in/3667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3671, 1, '2020-06-28 05:21:23', '2020-06-28 05:21:23', '<div>Back in mid-March when we were asking investors to be rational in their response to Covid, we cited a Morgan Housel piece which said that fighting Covid would be similar to fighting a war (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cb71391dc4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dcb71391dc4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEWs2T_CU7vkl6Ahf2e81BuCl916Q\">https://marcellus.in/story/<wbr />common-enemies/</a>).  That in turn led us to cite that whilst the American stockmarket had corrected from the beginning of World War II in 1939 to the bombing of Pearl Harbour in 1941, from that point on it was one way traffic i.e. from the moment America entered WW II, the US stockmarket rallied 130% over four years. Back in mid-March, inspired by Housel, we held up this analogy in our attempt to soothe frazzled investors’ nerves.\r\nNow, with a little bit more rationality circulating in the air, Housel has published another insightful piece reminding us that no matter what happens in the world, there are four aspects of human psychology which never change.\r\n<strong><em>“#1: Big risks happen when a bunch of small risks combine and compound. But small risks are easy to ignore, so people always underestimate the odds of big risks.”</em></strong>\r\nBig risks are nothing but a whole sequence of smaller risks added up. Since most of us underestimate these smaller risks, by definition almost, we underestimate both the probability of the big risk and its potency. Eg. <em>“A virus transferred from animal to human (has happened forever) and those humans interacted with other people (of course). It was a mystery for a while (understandable) and then bad news was then likely suppressed (bad, but common). Other countries thought it would be contained (standard denial) and didn’t act fast enough (bureaucracy, lack of leadership). We weren’t prepared (over-optimism) and could only respond with blunt-force lockdowns (do what you gotta do). None of those on their own are surprising. But combined they turned into probably the biggest event of our lifetime.”</em>\r\nAnother example of this is the Great Depression and how it led to a cascade of consequences that no one had expected.\r\n<strong><em>“#2: Optimism is the fuel of progress, and without it people will grind to a halt. So you will often find it even when the odds are stacked against you and the facts don’t align.”</em></strong>\r\nOptimism in man’s way of dealing with adversity. Hence optimism soars when societies are faced with what look like insurmountable odds. <em>““The American Dream” was a phrase first used by author James Truslow Adams in his 1931 book The Epic of America. The timing is interesting, isn’t it? It’s hard to think of a year when the dream looked more broken than in 1931. When Adams wrote of, “a man by applying himself, by using the talents he has, by acquiring the necessary skills, can rise from lower to higher status, and that his family can rise with him,” the unemployment rate was nearly 25% and wealth inequality was near the highest it had been in American history.</em>\r\n<em>When he wrote of “that American dream of a better, richer, and happier life for all our citizens of every rank,” food riots were breaking out across the country as the Great Depression ripped the economy to shreds….At few points in American history had the idea of the American dream looked so false, so out of touch with the reality everyone faced. Yet Adam’s book surged in popularity. An optimistic phrase born during the gloomiest period in American history became an overnight household motto…”</em>\r\n<strong><em>“#3 People will avoid even the slightest discomfort, even when the pain is manageable and trying to avoid the pain creates bigger risks.”</em></strong>\r\nAll of us are conditioned to avoid pain and discomfort however slight that might be. That is why we put off working out. That is why we put off making difficult decisions/choices. And that is also why we hate to see our portfolio fall even 10-20%. Behavioural scientists like Danny Kahneman call this “risk aversion”. Ordinary folks might call it a form of mental laziness. Those of us who have the mental capacity to endure this pain are therefore at an advantage: <em>“Yet a large portion of the investing industry is devoted to avoiding the falls. They forecast when the next 10% or 20% decline will come and sell in anticipation. They’re wrong virtually every time. But they appeal to investors because asking people to just accept the temporary pain of losing 10% or 20% – maybe more once a decade – is unbearable. The majority of investors I know will tell you that you will perform better over time if you simply endure the pain of declines rather than try to avoid them. Still, they try to avoid them. The upside when you simply accept and endure the pain from market declines is that future declines don’t hurt as bad. You realize it’s just part of the game.”</em>\r\n<strong><em>“#4. Disagreement is constant because it’s rooted in individual experiences. Experiencing a major stressor can permanently change your behavior, leaving certain countries and generations with extreme feelings toward specific topics.”</em></strong>\r\nTraumatic experiences leave mental scars and these scars change the way we behave, the way we think and the way we perceive the world. The most commonly known example of this is soldiers who go to war and come back with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. However, even ordinary civilians go through these life-changing events eg. <em>“It’s why the generation who lived through the Great Depression never viewed money the same. They saved more money, used less debt, and were weary of risk – for the rest of their lives. This was obvious even before the depression was over. Fortune magazine wrote in 1936: “The present-day college generation is fatalistic. It will not stick its neck out. It keeps its pants buttoned, its chin up, and its mouth shut. If we take the mean average to be the truth, it is a cautious, subdued, unadventurous generation.””</em>\r\nBecause some people go through these experiences and others don’t, such traumatic events create differences in opinion/perspective between similarly similar people/societies. Such schisms come to the fore when stressors like Covid are at work: “<em>Two things tend to happen after you get hit with something big and unexpected:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>You extrapolate what just happened, but happening with even greater force and consequence.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>You forecast with great conviction, despite the original event being improbable and something few, if anyone, predicted.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>The more impactful the surprise, the more this is true.”</em></div>', 'Same As It Ever Was', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'same-as-it-ever-was', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3671', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3672, 1, '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '<div>Back in mid-March when we were asking investors to be rational in their response to Covid, we cited a Morgan Housel piece which said that fighting Covid would be similar to fighting a war (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=cb71391dc4&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dcb71391dc4%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEWs2T_CU7vkl6Ahf2e81BuCl916Q\">https://marcellus.in/story/<wbr />common-enemies/</a>).  That in turn led us to cite that whilst the American stockmarket had corrected from the beginning of World War II in 1939 to the bombing of Pearl Harbour in 1941, from that point on it was one way traffic i.e. from the moment America entered WW II, the US stockmarket rallied 130% over four years. Back in mid-March, inspired by Housel, we held up this analogy in our attempt to soothe frazzled investors’ nerves.\r\nNow, with a little bit more rationality circulating in the air, Housel has published another insightful piece reminding us that no matter what happens in the world, there are four aspects of human psychology which never change.\r\n<strong><em>“#1: Big risks happen when a bunch of small risks combine and compound. But small risks are easy to ignore, so people always underestimate the odds of big risks.”</em></strong>\r\nBig risks are nothing but a whole sequence of smaller risks added up. Since most of us underestimate these smaller risks, by definition almost, we underestimate both the probability of the big risk and its potency. Eg. <em>“A virus transferred from animal to human (has happened forever) and those humans interacted with other people (of course). It was a mystery for a while (understandable) and then bad news was then likely suppressed (bad, but common). Other countries thought it would be contained (standard denial) and didn’t act fast enough (bureaucracy, lack of leadership). We weren’t prepared (over-optimism) and could only respond with blunt-force lockdowns (do what you gotta do). None of those on their own are surprising. But combined they turned into probably the biggest event of our lifetime.”</em>\r\nAnother example of this is the Great Depression and how it led to a cascade of consequences that no one had expected.\r\n<strong><em>“#2: Optimism is the fuel of progress, and without it people will grind to a halt. So you will often find it even when the odds are stacked against you and the facts don’t align.”</em></strong>\r\nOptimism in man’s way of dealing with adversity. Hence optimism soars when societies are faced with what look like insurmountable odds. <em>““The American Dream” was a phrase first used by author James Truslow Adams in his 1931 book The Epic of America. The timing is interesting, isn’t it? It’s hard to think of a year when the dream looked more broken than in 1931. When Adams wrote of, “a man by applying himself, by using the talents he has, by acquiring the necessary skills, can rise from lower to higher status, and that his family can rise with him,” the unemployment rate was nearly 25% and wealth inequality was near the highest it had been in American history.</em>\r\n<em>When he wrote of “that American dream of a better, richer, and happier life for all our citizens of every rank,” food riots were breaking out across the country as the Great Depression ripped the economy to shreds….At few points in American history had the idea of the American dream looked so false, so out of touch with the reality everyone faced. Yet Adam’s book surged in popularity. An optimistic phrase born during the gloomiest period in American history became an overnight household motto…”</em>\r\n<strong><em>“#3 People will avoid even the slightest discomfort, even when the pain is manageable and trying to avoid the pain creates bigger risks.”</em></strong>\r\nAll of us are conditioned to avoid pain and discomfort however slight that might be. That is why we put off working out. That is why we put off making difficult decisions/choices. And that is also why we hate to see our portfolio fall even 10-20%. Behavioural scientists like Danny Kahneman call this “risk aversion”. Ordinary folks might call it a form of mental laziness. Those of us who have the mental capacity to endure this pain are therefore at an advantage: <em>“Yet a large portion of the investing industry is devoted to avoiding the falls. They forecast when the next 10% or 20% decline will come and sell in anticipation. They’re wrong virtually every time. But they appeal to investors because asking people to just accept the temporary pain of losing 10% or 20% – maybe more once a decade – is unbearable. The majority of investors I know will tell you that you will perform better over time if you simply endure the pain of declines rather than try to avoid them. Still, they try to avoid them. The upside when you simply accept and endure the pain from market declines is that future declines don’t hurt as bad. You realize it’s just part of the game.”</em>\r\n<strong><em>“#4. Disagreement is constant because it’s rooted in individual experiences. Experiencing a major stressor can permanently change your behavior, leaving certain countries and generations with extreme feelings toward specific topics.”</em></strong>\r\nTraumatic experiences leave mental scars and these scars change the way we behave, the way we think and the way we perceive the world. The most commonly known example of this is soldiers who go to war and come back with Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. However, even ordinary civilians go through these life-changing events eg. <em>“It’s why the generation who lived through the Great Depression never viewed money the same. They saved more money, used less debt, and were weary of risk – for the rest of their lives. This was obvious even before the depression was over. Fortune magazine wrote in 1936: “The present-day college generation is fatalistic. It will not stick its neck out. It keeps its pants buttoned, its chin up, and its mouth shut. If we take the mean average to be the truth, it is a cautious, subdued, unadventurous generation.””</em>\r\nBecause some people go through these experiences and others don’t, such traumatic events create differences in opinion/perspective between similarly similar people/societies. Such schisms come to the fore when stressors like Covid are at work: “<em>Two things tend to happen after you get hit with something big and unexpected:</em></div>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><em>You extrapolate what just happened, but happening with even greater force and consequence.</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>You forecast with great conviction, despite the original event being improbable and something few, if anyone, predicted.</em></li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<div><em>The more impactful the surprise, the more this is true.”</em></div>', 'Same As It Ever Was', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3671-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '2020-06-29 05:26:01', '', 3671, 'https://marcellus.in/3671-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3673, 1, '2020-06-29 05:27:38', '2020-06-29 05:27:38', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3667-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:27:38', '2020-06-29 05:27:38', '', 3667, 'https://marcellus.in/3667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3674, 1, '2020-06-28 05:28:34', '2020-06-28 05:28:34', '<div>The Paypal Mafia is used to refer to the founders of Paypal who after selling out to e-Bay have gone on to found several marquee companies in the Silicon Valley. Last week, we featured a piece on Peter Thiel often called the don of the Paypal Mafia. This time we feature a piece on the most prolific of the lot – Elon Musk, who has since founded most popularly Tesla but also SolarCity, SpaceX, Neuralink, the Boring Company and OpenAI. This article takes a shot at second guessing which of these will go on to become Musk’s biggest legacy for mankind. Justin Rowlatt believes it will be the battery technology. In someways, the article pre-empts what is likely to be announced in the much anticipated and much delayed ‘Battery Day’. Musk is widely expected to announce a breakthrough in battery technology that could have far reaching implications on not just the automobile sector but the energy industry in general. Well, atleast the stockmarket already seems to believe that, what with Tesla briefly trading at levels that made it the world’s most valuable automobile company, bigger than Toyota which makes 30x more cars than Tesla.\r\nThe article speculates three possible breakthroughs or likely a combination of all three on the lines of durability, cost and efficiency of the battery:\r\n<strong>First, the longevity or durability of the battery:</strong>\r\n“<em>The first of these was announced just last week when the Chinese battery-maker that supplies most of the major car makers, including Tesla, revealed it had produced the first <strong>\"million mile battery\"</strong>. Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) says its new battery is capable of powering a vehicle for more than a million miles (1.2 million, to be precise - or 1.9 million km) over a 16-year lifespan. Most car batteries offer warranties for 60,000-150,000 miles over a three to eight-year period.</em>\r\n<em>This is a huge improvement in battery life, but will cost just 10% more than existing products, says CATL chair, Zeng Yuqun. Having a battery you never need to change is obviously good news for the electric car industry. But longer-lasting batteries are also essential for what\'s known as \"stationary\" storage too. These are the batteries we can attach to wind turbines or solar panels so renewable energy is available when the sun isn\'t shining or the wind isn\'t blowing. Fairly soon you might even want a stationary battery in your home to store cheap off-peak electricity, or to collect the power your own solar panels generate.”</em>\r\n<strong>Second, the cost effectiveness:</strong>\r\n<em>“The next barrier that is likely to be broken is price. The landmark challenge in the electric vehicle industry is to get a battery costing under $100 (£78) per kilowatt hour.</em>\r\n<em>\"At that point you start to get electric vehicles that are cheaper than the equivalent internal combustion vehicles,\" says Seth Weintraub, a US battery technology journalist. Once that happens the internal combustion engine will be effectively dead., he says, comparing it to how digital killed off film cameras a decade ago. \"In car dealerships we\'re going to go from one electric vehicle in the back lot somewhere, to one gas vehicle in the back lot somewhere.\"</em>\r\n<em>So when will this crucial price-point be passed? He believes it already has.</em>\r\n<em>Mr Weintraub says his sources tell him these batteries are going into Teslas right now, and thinks this will be one of Mr Musk\'s \"battery day\" revelations.”</em>\r\n<strong>Efficiency:</strong>\r\n<em>“Cheaper batteries will address some of the other key concerns potential customers have. That is because it will make it economical to put bigger batteries into cars.</em>\r\n<em>That has two major advantages.</em>\r\n<em>First, it means they can go much further on a single charge, so you\'ll soon be able to buy cars with ranges of 400-500 miles (640-800km) or more.</em>\r\n<em>Second, big batteries charge faster for the bulk of their capacity, so you might be able to get up to 300 miles of range with just 10 minutes of charging.</em>\r\n<em>That\'s comparable to the time it takes to fill a car with petrol or diesel. So expect Elon Musk to announce upgrades for the Model S and X which will combine 400-500 mile range with supercar performance, says Mr Weintraub.”</em></div>', 'How Elon Musk aims to revolutionise battery technology', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-elon-musk-aims-to-revolutionise-battery-technology', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3674', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3675, 1, '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '<div>The Paypal Mafia is used to refer to the founders of Paypal who after selling out to e-Bay have gone on to found several marquee companies in the Silicon Valley. Last week, we featured a piece on Peter Thiel often called the don of the Paypal Mafia. This time we feature a piece on the most prolific of the lot – Elon Musk, who has since founded most popularly Tesla but also SolarCity, SpaceX, Neuralink, the Boring Company and OpenAI. This article takes a shot at second guessing which of these will go on to become Musk’s biggest legacy for mankind. Justin Rowlatt believes it will be the battery technology. In someways, the article pre-empts what is likely to be announced in the much anticipated and much delayed ‘Battery Day’. Musk is widely expected to announce a breakthrough in battery technology that could have far reaching implications on not just the automobile sector but the energy industry in general. Well, atleast the stockmarket already seems to believe that, what with Tesla briefly trading at levels that made it the world’s most valuable automobile company, bigger than Toyota which makes 30x more cars than Tesla.\r\nThe article speculates three possible breakthroughs or likely a combination of all three on the lines of durability, cost and efficiency of the battery:\r\n<strong>First, the longevity or durability of the battery:</strong>\r\n“<em>The first of these was announced just last week when the Chinese battery-maker that supplies most of the major car makers, including Tesla, revealed it had produced the first <strong>\"million mile battery\"</strong>. Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) says its new battery is capable of powering a vehicle for more than a million miles (1.2 million, to be precise - or 1.9 million km) over a 16-year lifespan. Most car batteries offer warranties for 60,000-150,000 miles over a three to eight-year period.</em>\r\n<em>This is a huge improvement in battery life, but will cost just 10% more than existing products, says CATL chair, Zeng Yuqun. Having a battery you never need to change is obviously good news for the electric car industry. But longer-lasting batteries are also essential for what\'s known as \"stationary\" storage too. These are the batteries we can attach to wind turbines or solar panels so renewable energy is available when the sun isn\'t shining or the wind isn\'t blowing. Fairly soon you might even want a stationary battery in your home to store cheap off-peak electricity, or to collect the power your own solar panels generate.”</em>\r\n<strong>Second, the cost effectiveness:</strong>\r\n<em>“The next barrier that is likely to be broken is price. The landmark challenge in the electric vehicle industry is to get a battery costing under $100 (£78) per kilowatt hour.</em>\r\n<em>\"At that point you start to get electric vehicles that are cheaper than the equivalent internal combustion vehicles,\" says Seth Weintraub, a US battery technology journalist. Once that happens the internal combustion engine will be effectively dead., he says, comparing it to how digital killed off film cameras a decade ago. \"In car dealerships we\'re going to go from one electric vehicle in the back lot somewhere, to one gas vehicle in the back lot somewhere.\"</em>\r\n<em>So when will this crucial price-point be passed? He believes it already has.</em>\r\n<em>Mr Weintraub says his sources tell him these batteries are going into Teslas right now, and thinks this will be one of Mr Musk\'s \"battery day\" revelations.”</em>\r\n<strong>Efficiency:</strong>\r\n<em>“Cheaper batteries will address some of the other key concerns potential customers have. That is because it will make it economical to put bigger batteries into cars.</em>\r\n<em>That has two major advantages.</em>\r\n<em>First, it means they can go much further on a single charge, so you\'ll soon be able to buy cars with ranges of 400-500 miles (640-800km) or more.</em>\r\n<em>Second, big batteries charge faster for the bulk of their capacity, so you might be able to get up to 300 miles of range with just 10 minutes of charging.</em>\r\n<em>That\'s comparable to the time it takes to fill a car with petrol or diesel. So expect Elon Musk to announce upgrades for the Model S and X which will combine 400-500 mile range with supercar performance, says Mr Weintraub.”</em></div>', 'How Elon Musk aims to revolutionise battery technology', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3674-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '2020-06-29 05:32:15', '', 3674, 'https://marcellus.in/3674-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3676, 1, '2020-06-28 05:32:41', '2020-06-28 05:32:41', '<div>Modern Monetary Theory is referred to the approach used by governments and central banks globally since the Lehman crisis in 2008, primarily involving pumping money into the financial system by expanding the central banks’ balance sheet. Whilst the positive effects on the economy, particularly in the US cannot be denied, the effects of money printing has been far more positive on financial markets. Naysayers have pointed to the inflationary effects of such an approach as the key risk when eventually central banks will have to raise rates and suck liquidity out which could pull the rug under the market’s feet. Indeed, everytime the Fed has signalled a rise in rates, the markets have been jolted. However, the real risk of inflation has been elusive. Indeed, the great lockdown has doused any such inflationary trends cropping up just as US unemployment had reached a multi-decadal low. To tackle the recessionary effects of the lockdown, central banks have unleashed liquidity pumping measures at an all-together different scale. This has further emboldened market participants to believe that easy money is here to stay.\r\nNow, two very well-accomplished and often contrarian strategists have raised the inflation alarm that could spoil this party – Russel Napier, who authors the highly regarded report <em>Solid Ground </em>and Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. They refer to the government loan guarantees that could trigger commercial banks lending and private money creation that could eventually stoke inflation. Napier predicts inflation in developed markets to hit 4% next year.\r\n<em>“Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend. “It’s pure politicization of credit,” Mr. Napier said. “This is the magic money tree.” In one way, guaranteeing lending is a stroke of genius. Money quickly gets into the real economy, unlike with Fed bond buying. Sure, people and companies end up with more debt. But that just ups the political incentive for governments to invent new lending programs to refinance each round of debt; Mr. Napier suggests reconstruction loans will come next, then environment loans, maybe even equality loans. Extend and pretend and the bad debts are never realized.</em>\r\n<em>The downside is that the more the government is involved in supporting lending, the more pressure there is to direct the loans to politically popular causes, or at least away from unpopular ones. Private equity can expect to find it harder to borrow, while green energy may find it easier. Businesses might find it harder to access loans if they aren’t in favor with the government of the day. In the long run, having politicians pick winners usually crimps economic growth.</em>\r\n<em>Inflation is both the result of out-of-control private money-creation financing consumption, and the easiest cure for excessive debt. Calling in the bad debts once the economy recovers and the government wants to pull back is politically difficult, and while turning debts into grants is possible—and explicit in the U.S. small business lending program—that would make the debt appear on the government balance sheet. So long as the bad debt keeps being rolled over into new loans, the loan guarantees have a mysterious twilight existence as contingent liabilities, not fully recognized as government debt.</em>\r\n<em>Both this route to inflation and the simpler monetary financing possibility require tacit assent from the central banks, which could stop either by jacking up interest rates. And both are at heart arguments about politics: Is it more likely that governments and central banks will overstimulate and accept higher inflation, or take back from voters in good times what they have given when times are hard?”</em>\r\nWhilst there is no certainty that inflation will spike given the truly uncharted territory we are in, the author worries that the market isn’t pricing in anything remotely close: <em>“True, the natural winners—gold and Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS—have performed very well this year. But the bond market’s expectation of inflation, calculated as the ordinary Treasury yield minus the TIPS yield, shows inflation of just 1.5% over the next 30 years, and below 1% for the next five years. TIPS yields are low (and gold high) mostly because ordinary Treasury yields are so low. Inflation options allow us to look at the odds: Data from the Minneapolis Fed for late May, the latest available, show only a 5% chance of inflation over the next five years averaging more than 3%. The chance priced into options of inflation averaging less than 1% over the period was 52% (down from 85% in March).”</em></div>', 'If Inflation Is Coming, the Market Isn’t Ready', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'if-inflation-is-coming-the-market-isnt-ready', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3676', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3677, 1, '2020-06-29 05:37:42', '2020-06-29 05:37:42', '<div>Modern Monetary Theory is referred to the approach used by governments and central banks globally since the Lehman crisis in 2008, primarily involving pumping money into the financial system by expanding the central banks’ balance sheet. Whilst the positive effects on the economy, particularly in the US cannot be denied, the effects of money printing has been far more positive on financial markets. Naysayers have pointed to the inflationary effects of such an approach as the key risk when eventually central banks will have to raise rates and suck liquidity out which could pull the rug under the market’s feet. Indeed, everytime the Fed has signalled a rise in rates, the markets have been jolted. However, the real risk of inflation has been elusive. Indeed, the great lockdown has doused any such inflationary trends cropping up just as US unemployment had reached a multi-decadal low. To tackle the recessionary effects of the lockdown, central banks have unleashed liquidity pumping measures at an all-together different scale. This has further emboldened market participants to believe that easy money is here to stay.\r\nNow, two very well-accomplished and often contrarian strategists have raised the inflation alarm that could spoil this party – Russel Napier, who authors the highly regarded report <em>Solid Ground </em>and Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. They refer to the government loan guarantees that could trigger commercial banks lending and private money creation that could eventually stoke inflation. Napier predicts inflation in developed markets to hit 4% next year.\r\n<em>“Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend. “It’s pure politicization of credit,” Mr. Napier said. “This is the magic money tree.” In one way, guaranteeing lending is a stroke of genius. Money quickly gets into the real economy, unlike with Fed bond buying. Sure, people and companies end up with more debt. But that just ups the political incentive for governments to invent new lending programs to refinance each round of debt; Mr. Napier suggests reconstruction loans will come next, then environment loans, maybe even equality loans. Extend and pretend and the bad debts are never realized.</em>\r\n<em>The downside is that the more the government is involved in supporting lending, the more pressure there is to direct the loans to politically popular causes, or at least away from unpopular ones. Private equity can expect to find it harder to borrow, while green energy may find it easier. Businesses might find it harder to access loans if they aren’t in favor with the government of the day. In the long run, having politicians pick winners usually crimps economic growth.</em>\r\n<em>Inflation is both the result of out-of-control private money-creation financing consumption, and the easiest cure for excessive debt. Calling in the bad debts once the economy recovers and the government wants to pull back is politically difficult, and while turning debts into grants is possible—and explicit in the U.S. small business lending program—that would make the debt appear on the government balance sheet. So long as the bad debt keeps being rolled over into new loans, the loan guarantees have a mysterious twilight existence as contingent liabilities, not fully recognized as government debt.</em>\r\n<em>Both this route to inflation and the simpler monetary financing possibility require tacit assent from the central banks, which could stop either by jacking up interest rates. And both are at heart arguments about politics: Is it more likely that governments and central banks will overstimulate and accept higher inflation, or take back from voters in good times what they have given when times are hard?”</em>\r\nWhilst there is no certainty that inflation will spike given the truly uncharted territory we are in, the author worries that the market isn’t pricing in anything remotely close: <em>“True, the natural winners—gold and Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS—have performed very well this year. But the bond market’s expectation of inflation, calculated as the ordinary Treasury yield minus the TIPS yield, shows inflation of just 1.5% over the next 30 years, and below 1% for the next five years. TIPS yields are low (and gold high) mostly because ordinary Treasury yields are so low. Inflation options allow us to look at the odds: Data from the Minneapolis Fed for late May, the latest available, show only a 5% chance of inflation over the next five years averaging more than 3%. The chance priced into options of inflation averaging less than 1% over the period was 52% (down from 85% in March).”</em></div>', 'If Inflation Is Coming, the Market Isn’t Ready', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3676-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:37:42', '2020-06-29 05:37:42', '', 3676, 'https://marcellus.in/3676-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3678, 1, '2020-06-28 05:38:54', '2020-06-28 05:38:54', '<div>Marketing professionals often look for a ‘hook’ to connect with the consumer, so as to build that trust about the brand that triggers repeat purchase. Here’s a story about how Nestle used ‘emotional branding’ to get the Japanese to like and consume its coffee products. The only difference is the time horizon over which Nestle chose to build this – almost an entire generation of kids growing up to adults. Nestle’s use of a psychoanalyst to assess the Japanese mindset is intriguing enough but the ability to think and work with such long term plays, even at the product level is particularly inspiring.\r\n<em>“…They’d attempted to bring Nestle coffee to Japan. They’d developed a great product. It was affordable and tested well with its intended audience. But sales continued to slump.</em>\r\n<em>Clotaire had been a foremost researcher on the emotional bonds we form with objects in our culture. They offered Clotaire a handsome fee and flew him out to meet with Nestle’s Japanese marketing team. Clotaire then began doing research.</em>\r\n<em>He assembled several large groups of participants and did a number of eccentric experiments. In one, he had all participants lie on the ground. He played calming music and had them talk back through their earliest childhood memories. He then asked them to describe experiences with different products and what emotions they associated with them.</em>\r\n<em>Then, when he had these participants do that with coffee— he got no response. Most had no memories of coffee. They’d never drank it and thus had no emotional bond to it. Why? Because in Japan they drank tea, as they had for thousands of years. Coffee existed only in small reaches of their culture.</em>\r\n<em>This was a breakthrough moment. And it would drive the next idea, which would be one of the boldest marketing moves of the 20th century.</em>\r\n<em>Rather than throw endless advertising dollars at converting the Japanese public to coffee, they pivoted and took a more long term strategy. They focused on coffee-flavored candies that were marketed to children. Per Clotaire’s guidance, they needed to get children to love Nestle’s flavor from an early age. Not only would this condition them to the taste, it would also imprint the flavor. They would associate coffee with positive emotions. This imprinting strategy was also a good idea because Nestle happened to be very, very good at making candy. The Swiss company had proven itself dominant in markets all over the world.</em>\r\n<em>They tested, manufactured, and stocked shelves with their coffee-flavored candies. They immediately became extremely popular with Japanese youth. The popularity of these coffee candies also had the secondary effect of filtering up to their parents, who ended up testing the coffee flavor out of curiosity.</em>\r\n<em>Years later, Nestle would reenter the Japanese market with a new wave of coffee products. This time, the outcome would be very different. Many of their candy customers were now of working age. They were already consumers of caffeine and worked long hours. Nestle released instant baristas that were easy for home and workspaces. Nestle was no longer marketing roadkill. Their instant coffee was a monster that quickly took hold of the market.</em>\r\n<em>Today, Nestle is one of the top brands in a market that imports 500 million tons of coffee per year. Decades prior, they could barely sell a cup. It all began with a desperate experiment that required a bit of patience. But they proved, yet again, that the path to sales is built through strong emotional bonds with customers.”</em></div>', 'Nestle Hired a Psychoanalyst to Convert a Nation to Coffee', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'nestle-hired-a-psychoanalyst-to-convert-a-nation-to-coffee', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3678', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3679, 1, '2020-06-29 05:42:56', '2020-06-29 05:42:56', '<div>Marketing professionals often look for a ‘hook’ to connect with the consumer, so as to build that trust about the brand that triggers repeat purchase. Here’s a story about how Nestle used ‘emotional branding’ to get the Japanese to like and consume its coffee products. The only difference is the time horizon over which Nestle chose to build this – almost an entire generation of kids growing up to adults. Nestle’s use of a psychoanalyst to assess the Japanese mindset is intriguing enough but the ability to think and work with such long term plays, even at the product level is particularly inspiring.\r\n<em>“…They’d attempted to bring Nestle coffee to Japan. They’d developed a great product. It was affordable and tested well with its intended audience. But sales continued to slump.</em>\r\n<em>Clotaire had been a foremost researcher on the emotional bonds we form with objects in our culture. They offered Clotaire a handsome fee and flew him out to meet with Nestle’s Japanese marketing team. Clotaire then began doing research.</em>\r\n<em>He assembled several large groups of participants and did a number of eccentric experiments. In one, he had all participants lie on the ground. He played calming music and had them talk back through their earliest childhood memories. He then asked them to describe experiences with different products and what emotions they associated with them.</em>\r\n<em>Then, when he had these participants do that with coffee— he got no response. Most had no memories of coffee. They’d never drank it and thus had no emotional bond to it. Why? Because in Japan they drank tea, as they had for thousands of years. Coffee existed only in small reaches of their culture.</em>\r\n<em>This was a breakthrough moment. And it would drive the next idea, which would be one of the boldest marketing moves of the 20th century.</em>\r\n<em>Rather than throw endless advertising dollars at converting the Japanese public to coffee, they pivoted and took a more long term strategy. They focused on coffee-flavored candies that were marketed to children. Per Clotaire’s guidance, they needed to get children to love Nestle’s flavor from an early age. Not only would this condition them to the taste, it would also imprint the flavor. They would associate coffee with positive emotions. This imprinting strategy was also a good idea because Nestle happened to be very, very good at making candy. The Swiss company had proven itself dominant in markets all over the world.</em>\r\n<em>They tested, manufactured, and stocked shelves with their coffee-flavored candies. They immediately became extremely popular with Japanese youth. The popularity of these coffee candies also had the secondary effect of filtering up to their parents, who ended up testing the coffee flavor out of curiosity.</em>\r\n<em>Years later, Nestle would reenter the Japanese market with a new wave of coffee products. This time, the outcome would be very different. Many of their candy customers were now of working age. They were already consumers of caffeine and worked long hours. Nestle released instant baristas that were easy for home and workspaces. Nestle was no longer marketing roadkill. Their instant coffee was a monster that quickly took hold of the market.</em>\r\n<em>Today, Nestle is one of the top brands in a market that imports 500 million tons of coffee per year. Decades prior, they could barely sell a cup. It all began with a desperate experiment that required a bit of patience. But they proved, yet again, that the path to sales is built through strong emotional bonds with customers.”</em></div>', 'Nestle Hired a Psychoanalyst to Convert a Nation to Coffee', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3678-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:42:56', '2020-06-29 05:42:56', '', 3678, 'https://marcellus.in/3678-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3680, 1, '2020-06-29 05:44:13', '0000-00-00 00:00:00', '', 'Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes', '', 'draft', 'open', 'open', '', '', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:44:13', '2020-06-29 05:44:13', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?p=3680', 0, 'post', '', 0),
(3681, 1, '2020-06-28 05:45:17', '2020-06-28 05:45:17', 'Despite the continued rise in new daily cases in Brazil, India and Russia and the southern parts of the US, rising recovery rates and incrementally positive news about better treatments of Covid have been encouraging. Whilst our understanding about the virus and its treatment is improving, several researchers are beginning to look at long lasting effects of Covid on the human body even after the patient has recovered and tested Covid free. One such effect that researches currently speculate is that Covid might trigger diabetes in some patients. <em>“Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19 shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.”</em>\r\n<em>“…Diabetes is already known to be a key risk factor for developing severe COVID-19 and people with the condition are more likely to die. “Diabetes is dynamite if you get COVID-19,” says Paul Zimmet, who studies the metabolic disease at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.</em>\r\n<em>Now Zimmet is among a growing number of researchers who think that diabetes doesn’t just make people more vulnerable to the coronavirus, but that the virus might also trigger diabetes in some. “Diabetes itself is a pandemic just like the COVID-19 pandemic. The two pandemics could be clashing,” he says.</em>\r\nType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the body’s immune cells destroy Beta cells which are responsible for producing insulin without which blood sugar levels go up. Researchers based on evidence of blood sugar levels rising in Covid patients are hypothesising if Covid has the same effect of destroying Beta cells.\r\n<em> “…evidence from dozens more people with COVID-19 who have arrived in hospital with extremely high levels of blood sugar and ketones, which are produced from fatty deposits in the liver. When the body doesn’t make enough insulin to break down sugar, it uses ketones as an alternative source of fuel. “In science, sometimes you have to start off with very small evidence to chase a hypothesis,” says Zimmet.</em>\r\n<em>Researchers cite other evidence, too. Various viruses, including the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have been linked with autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes. And many organs involved in controlling blood sugar are rich in a protein called ACE2, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells.”</em>\r\nHowever, further research is required to conclude:\r\n<em>“…Earlier this month, an international group of scientists, including Zimmet, established a global database to collect information on people with COVID-19 and high blood-sugar levels who do not have a history of diabetes or problems controlling their blood sugar.</em>\r\n<em>…The study in pancreatic organoids shows how SARS-CoV-2 could be damaging the organ. Shuibing Chen, a stem-cell biologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City, and her colleagues showed that the virus can infect the organoid’s α- and β-cells, some of which then die. Whereas β-cells produce insulin to decrease blood-sugar levels, α-cells produce the hormone glucagon, which increases blood sugar. The virus can also induce the production of proteins known as chemokines and cytokines, which can trigger an immune response that might also kill the cells, according to the study8 published in Cell Stem Cell on 19 June.</em>\r\n<em>Chen says the experiments suggest that the virus can disrupt the function of key cells involved in diabetes — either by directly killing them or by triggering an immune response that attacks them.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'mounting-clues-suggest-the-coronavirus-might-trigger-diabetes', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:08:27', '2020-06-29 07:08:27', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3681', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3682, 1, '2020-06-29 05:50:34', '2020-06-29 05:50:34', 'Despite the continued rise in new daily cases in Brazil, India and Russia and the southern parts of the US, rising recovery rates and incrementally positive news about better treatments of Covid have been encouraging. Whilst our understanding about the virus and its treatment is improving, several researchers are beginning to look at long lasting effects of Covid on the human body even after the patient has recovered and tested Covid free. One such effect that researches currently speculate is that Covid might trigger diabetes in some patients. <em>“Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19 shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.”</em>\r\n<em>“…Diabetes is already known to be a key risk factor for developing severe COVID-19 and people with the condition are more likely to die. “Diabetes is dynamite if you get COVID-19,” says Paul Zimmet, who studies the metabolic disease at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.</em>\r\n<em>Now Zimmet is among a growing number of researchers who think that diabetes doesn’t just make people more vulnerable to the coronavirus, but that the virus might also trigger diabetes in some. “Diabetes itself is a pandemic just like the COVID-19 pandemic. The two pandemics could be clashing,” he says.</em>\r\nType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the body’s immune cells destroy Beta cells which are responsible for producing insulin without which blood sugar levels go up. Researchers based on evidence of blood sugar levels rising in Covid patients are hypothesising if Covid has the same effect of destroying Beta cells.\r\n<em> “…evidence from dozens more people with COVID-19 who have arrived in hospital with extremely high levels of blood sugar and ketones, which are produced from fatty deposits in the liver. When the body doesn’t make enough insulin to break down sugar, it uses ketones as an alternative source of fuel. “In science, sometimes you have to start off with very small evidence to chase a hypothesis,” says Zimmet.</em>\r\n<em>Researchers cite other evidence, too. Various viruses, including the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have been linked with autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes. And many organs involved in controlling blood sugar are rich in a protein called ACE2, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells.”</em>\r\nHowever, further research is required to conclude:\r\n<em>“…Earlier this month, an international group of scientists, including Zimmet, established a global database to collect information on people with COVID-19 and high blood-sugar levels who do not have a history of diabetes or problems controlling their blood sugar.</em>\r\n<em>…The study in pancreatic organoids shows how SARS-CoV-2 could be damaging the organ. Shuibing Chen, a stem-cell biologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City, and her colleagues showed that the virus can infect the organoid’s α- and β-cells, some of which then die. Whereas β-cells produce insulin to decrease blood-sugar levels, α-cells produce the hormone glucagon, which increases blood sugar. The virus can also induce the production of proteins known as chemokines and cytokines, which can trigger an immune response that might also kill the cells, according to the study8 published in Cell Stem Cell on 19 June.</em>\r\n<em>Chen says the experiments suggest that the virus can disrupt the function of key cells involved in diabetes — either by directly killing them or by triggering an immune response that attacks them.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3681-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:50:34', '2020-06-29 05:50:34', '', 3681, 'https://marcellus.in/3681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);
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(3683, 1, '2020-06-29 05:59:32', '2020-06-29 05:59:32', '<div>One of the many tragic aspects of the hysteria around Covid back in March 2020 was the enthusiasm with which self-proclaimed Covid experts around the world and the international media forecasted that poor &amp; populous India would be hammered by Covid. After all, said these Covid gurus, if the Western economies with well-developed health infrastructure could not cope with Covid, what chance did India have. In an indictment of India’s reserves of self-confidence, the Indian media copy-pasted these Western pronouncements and amplified the hysteria. Then as spring  became summer and as India’s Covid deaths remained mercifully low, the new view that was circulated is that India underreports Covid deaths. Otherwise, incredulous Covid-gurus wondered, how could it be that a country with 1.4 billion has only 13,000 Covid deaths. Given this backdrop, the Indian Express should be congratulated for sensible, rational reporting about the Covid outbreak in Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum and one that sits smack in the middle of the island-city of Mumbai:\r\n<em>“Dharavi, the 2.4-square kilometre slum sprawl, which had emerged as a Covid-19 hot spot in Mumbai by mid-April, and had the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) deeply worried, has witnessed a steady decline in the number of new cases in June. On June 19, addition to cases was in single digit for the first time since the area reported its first case on April 1…The drop in new cases in Dharavi is characterised by a steep fall in the doubling time of 18 days in the last week of April to 78 days as of June 19.”</em>\r\nSo how did Dharavi get a grip on Covid? After all, back in April, <em>“Controlling the spread of infection in an area, where 9-10 people stay in a 10×10 sq ft room, was seen as almost impossible.”</em> Here is the sequence of steps that the Municipal Commission in Mumbai (BMC) took to tame Covid in Dharavi:</div>\r\n<ol>\r\n 	<li><em>“…within 48 hours, it barricaded the entrance and exit to the slum cluster, carried out disinfection of 425 public toilets, began door-to-door screening, and provided food to people in the first month of the world’s strictest lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“In the initial weeks, with a gargantuan task of screening the 8.5 lakh population, the BMC staff, with full personal protection equipment (PPE), carried out door-to-door screening of citizens. But the strategy didn’t yield results. Many staffers said citizens were non-responsive. “Citizens lied about the number of people living, about medical conditions after hearing the health workers are from the civic body,” said a community health volunteer working in Dharavi.”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“After screening 47,000 citizens, BMC changed its approach. The civic body roped in 350 private and local practitioners from within the area, provided them PPE kits, and asked them to open clinics…The 350 local practitioners worked as a bridge between us and the people in Dharavi. People had faith in the local doctors and followed their instructions diligently…nine BMC dispensaries were also included along with fever camps, bringing detection to the doorstep of people. Vans were dispatched in slums announcing the symptoms of Covid-19 and the location of fever camps…Fever camps were set up to isolate vulnerable people, and shift high risk contacts from slums to institutional quarantine. The civic body also took over some private hospitals, so that it had adequate treatment capacity….Since patients were screened, and isolated early, they could be continuously monitored, thus avoiding a rise in the mortality rate…”</em></li>\r\n 	<li><em>“The civic body also changed its strategy on classifying contacts of Covid-19 patients following deliberations with the visiting team from the Centre. Earlier, contact tracing followed a model of quarantining around 15 high risk contacts of every patient. Until the second week of May, patient contacts were classified as high and low risk. Later all contacts staying in slum settlements and used community toilets were considered high risk and shifted to quarantine facilities. Nine quarantine facilities in schools, sports complexes, hostels and community halls were set up to accommodate the people. For providing critical care, the BMC took over five private hospitals in the area. Until June more than 8,500 were quarantined in such facilities. Now, most new cases are of high risk contacts of patients and no new slum cluster has been added as a containment zone.”</em></li>\r\n</ol>\r\n<div>Now, as described in this Times of India <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=267636d864&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D267636d864%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593489507168000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGlcQcQqXpWu_0AkbVRVkgkfXkc2g\">article</a> - the Dharavi-approach is being replicated in other slums in Mumbai. As a result, even as Covid-cases in India approach the 0.5mn mark, the death ratio remains one of the lowest in the world. It would be nice if the same self-proclaimed Covid gurus could now give us some rational analysis of why this is happening. Until then we will celebrate the spirited response of the BMC in a city where: a) it is the norm to look down upon the public sector, and b) regard as the gospel truth anything which is published in the Western media.</div>', 'The Dharavi unlock: How daily new cases down to single digit', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3667-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 05:59:32', '2020-06-29 05:59:32', '', 3667, 'https://marcellus.in/3667-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3684, 1, '2020-06-29 06:06:45', '2020-06-29 06:06:45', 'Despite the continued rise in new daily cases in Brazil, India and Russia and the southern parts of the US, rising recovery rates and incrementally positive news about better treatments of Covid have been encouraging. Whilst our understanding about the virus and its treatment is improving, several researchers are beginning to look at long lasting effects of Covid on the human body even after the patient has recovered and tested Covid free. One such effect that researches currently speculate is that Covid might trigger diabetes in some patients. <em>“Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19 shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.”</em>\r\n<em>“…Diabetes is already known to be a key risk factor for developing severe COVID-19 and people with the condition are more likely to die. “Diabetes is dynamite if you get COVID-19,” says Paul Zimmet, who studies the metabolic disease at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.</em>\r\n<em>Now Zimmet is among a growing number of researchers who think that diabetes doesn’t just make people more vulnerable to the coronavirus, but that the virus might also trigger diabetes in some. “Diabetes itself is a pandemic just like the COVID-19 pandemic. The two pandemics could be clashing,” he says.</em>\r\nType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the body’s immune cells destroy Beta cells which are responsible for producing insulin without which blood sugar levels go up. Researchers based on evidence of blood sugar levels rising in Covid patients are hypothesising if Covid has the same effect of destroying Beta cells.\r\n<em> “…evidence from dozens more people with COVID-19 who have arrived in hospital with extremely high levels of blood sugar and ketones, which are produced from fatty deposits in the liver. When the body doesn’t make enough insulin to break down sugar, it uses ketones as an alternative source of fuel. “In science, sometimes you have to start off with very small evidence to chase a hypothesis,” says Zimmet.</em>\r\n<em>Researchers cite other evidence, too. Various viruses, including the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have been linked with autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes. And many organs involved in controlling blood sugar are rich in a protein called ACE2, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells.”</em>\r\nHowever, further research is required to conclude:\r\n<em>“…Earlier this month, an international group of scientists, including Zimmet, established a global database to collect information on people with COVID-19 and high blood-sugar levels who do not have a history of diabetes or problems controlling their blood sugar.</em>\r\n<em>…The study in pancreatic organoids shows how SARS-CoV-2 could be damaging the organ. Shuibing Chen, a stem-cell biologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City, and her colleagues showed that the virus can infect the organoid’s α- and β-cells, some of which then die. Whereas β-cells produce insulin to decrease blood-sugar levels, α-cells produce the hormone glucagon, which increases blood sugar. The virus can also induce the production of proteins known as chemokines and cytokines, which can trigger an immune response that might also kill the cells, according to the study8 published in Cell Stem Cell on 19 June.</em>\r\n<em>Chen says the experiments suggest that the virus can disrupt the function of key cells involved in diabetes — either by directly killing them or by triggering an immune response that attacks them.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3681-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 06:06:45', '2020-06-29 06:06:45', '', 3681, 'https://marcellus.in/3681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3685, 1, '2020-06-29 07:08:27', '2020-06-29 07:08:27', 'Despite the continued rise in new daily cases in Brazil, India and Russia and the southern parts of the US, rising recovery rates and incrementally positive news about better treatments of Covid have been encouraging. Whilst our understanding about the virus and its treatment is improving, several researchers are beginning to look at long lasting effects of Covid on the human body even after the patient has recovered and tested Covid free. One such effect that researches currently speculate is that Covid might trigger diabetes in some patients. <em>“Evidence from tissue studies and some people with COVID-19 shows that the virus damages insulin-producing cells.”</em>\r\n<em>“…Diabetes is already known to be a key risk factor for developing severe COVID-19 and people with the condition are more likely to die. “Diabetes is dynamite if you get COVID-19,” says Paul Zimmet, who studies the metabolic disease at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia.</em>\r\n<em>Now Zimmet is among a growing number of researchers who think that diabetes doesn’t just make people more vulnerable to the coronavirus, but that the virus might also trigger diabetes in some. “Diabetes itself is a pandemic just like the COVID-19 pandemic. The two pandemics could be clashing,” he says.</em>\r\nType 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the body’s immune cells destroy Beta cells which are responsible for producing insulin without which blood sugar levels go up. Researchers based on evidence of blood sugar levels rising in Covid patients are hypothesising if Covid has the same effect of destroying Beta cells.\r\n<em> “…evidence from dozens more people with COVID-19 who have arrived in hospital with extremely high levels of blood sugar and ketones, which are produced from fatty deposits in the liver. When the body doesn’t make enough insulin to break down sugar, it uses ketones as an alternative source of fuel. “In science, sometimes you have to start off with very small evidence to chase a hypothesis,” says Zimmet.</em>\r\n<em>Researchers cite other evidence, too. Various viruses, including the one that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), have been linked with autoimmune conditions such as type 1 diabetes. And many organs involved in controlling blood sugar are rich in a protein called ACE2, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect cells.”</em>\r\nHowever, further research is required to conclude:\r\n<em>“…Earlier this month, an international group of scientists, including Zimmet, established a global database to collect information on people with COVID-19 and high blood-sugar levels who do not have a history of diabetes or problems controlling their blood sugar.</em>\r\n<em>…The study in pancreatic organoids shows how SARS-CoV-2 could be damaging the organ. Shuibing Chen, a stem-cell biologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City, and her colleagues showed that the virus can infect the organoid’s α- and β-cells, some of which then die. Whereas β-cells produce insulin to decrease blood-sugar levels, α-cells produce the hormone glucagon, which increases blood sugar. The virus can also induce the production of proteins known as chemokines and cytokines, which can trigger an immune response that might also kill the cells, according to the study8 published in Cell Stem Cell on 19 June.</em>\r\n<em>Chen says the experiments suggest that the virus can disrupt the function of key cells involved in diabetes — either by directly killing them or by triggering an immune response that attacks them.”</em>\r\n\r\nNote: the above material is neither investment research, nor financial advice. Marcellus does not seek payment for or business from this email in any shape or form. <strong>Marcellus Investment Managers is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India as a provider of Portfolio Management Services and as an Investment Advisor.</strong>\r\n<em>Copyright © 2020 Marcellus Investment Managers Pvt Ltd, All rights reserved.</em>\r\nThis communication is confidential and privileged and is directed to and for the use of the addressee only. The recipient if not the addressee should not use this message if erroneously received, and access and use of this e-mail in any manner by anyone other than the addressee is unauthorized. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by return email and immediately destroy all copies of this message and any attachments and delete it from your computer system, permanently. Any opinions or advice contained in this email are subject to the terms and conditions expressed in a duly executed contract or written agreement between Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited and the intended recipient. No liability whatsoever is assumed by the sender as a result of the recipient or any other person relying upon the opinion unless otherwise agreed in writing. The recipient acknowledges that Marcellus Investment Managers Private Limited may be unable to exercise control or ensure or guarantee the integrity of the text of the email message and the text is not warranted as to its completeness and accuracy.', 'Mounting clues suggest the coronavirus might trigger diabetes', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3681-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:08:27', '2020-06-29 07:08:27', '', 3681, 'https://marcellus.in/3681-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3686, 1, '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '<div>Marketing professionals often look for a ‘hook’ to connect with the consumer, so as to build that trust about the brand that triggers repeat purchase. Here’s a story about how Nestle used ‘emotional branding’ to get the Japanese to like and consume its coffee products. The only difference is the time horizon over which Nestle chose to build this – almost an entire generation of kids growing up to adults. Nestle’s use of a psychoanalyst to assess the Japanese mindset is intriguing enough but the ability to think and work with such long term plays, even at the product level is particularly inspiring.\r\n<em>“…They’d attempted to bring Nestle coffee to Japan. They’d developed a great product. It was affordable and tested well with its intended audience. But sales continued to slump.</em>\r\n<em>Clotaire had been a foremost researcher on the emotional bonds we form with objects in our culture. They offered Clotaire a handsome fee and flew him out to meet with Nestle’s Japanese marketing team. Clotaire then began doing research.</em>\r\n<em>He assembled several large groups of participants and did a number of eccentric experiments. In one, he had all participants lie on the ground. He played calming music and had them talk back through their earliest childhood memories. He then asked them to describe experiences with different products and what emotions they associated with them.</em>\r\n<em>Then, when he had these participants do that with coffee— he got no response. Most had no memories of coffee. They’d never drank it and thus had no emotional bond to it. Why? Because in Japan they drank tea, as they had for thousands of years. Coffee existed only in small reaches of their culture.</em>\r\n<em>This was a breakthrough moment. And it would drive the next idea, which would be one of the boldest marketing moves of the 20th century.</em>\r\n<em>Rather than throw endless advertising dollars at converting the Japanese public to coffee, they pivoted and took a more long term strategy. They focused on coffee-flavored candies that were marketed to children. Per Clotaire’s guidance, they needed to get children to love Nestle’s flavor from an early age. Not only would this condition them to the taste, it would also imprint the flavor. They would associate coffee with positive emotions. This imprinting strategy was also a good idea because Nestle happened to be very, very good at making candy. The Swiss company had proven itself dominant in markets all over the world.</em>\r\n<em>They tested, manufactured, and stocked shelves with their coffee-flavored candies. They immediately became extremely popular with Japanese youth. The popularity of these coffee candies also had the secondary effect of filtering up to their parents, who ended up testing the coffee flavor out of curiosity.</em>\r\n<em>Years later, Nestle would reenter the Japanese market with a new wave of coffee products. This time, the outcome would be very different. Many of their candy customers were now of working age. They were already consumers of caffeine and worked long hours. Nestle released instant baristas that were easy for home and workspaces. Nestle was no longer marketing roadkill. Their instant coffee was a monster that quickly took hold of the market.</em>\r\n<em>Today, Nestle is one of the top brands in a market that imports 500 million tons of coffee per year. Decades prior, they could barely sell a cup. It all began with a desperate experiment that required a bit of patience. But they proved, yet again, that the path to sales is built through strong emotional bonds with customers.”</em></div>', 'Nestle Hired a Psychoanalyst to Convert a Nation to Coffee', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3678-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '2020-06-29 07:10:53', '', 3678, 'https://marcellus.in/3678-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3687, 1, '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '<div>Modern Monetary Theory is referred to the approach used by governments and central banks globally since the Lehman crisis in 2008, primarily involving pumping money into the financial system by expanding the central banks’ balance sheet. Whilst the positive effects on the economy, particularly in the US cannot be denied, the effects of money printing has been far more positive on financial markets. Naysayers have pointed to the inflationary effects of such an approach as the key risk when eventually central banks will have to raise rates and suck liquidity out which could pull the rug under the market’s feet. Indeed, everytime the Fed has signalled a rise in rates, the markets have been jolted. However, the real risk of inflation has been elusive. Indeed, the great lockdown has doused any such inflationary trends cropping up just as US unemployment had reached a multi-decadal low. To tackle the recessionary effects of the lockdown, central banks have unleashed liquidity pumping measures at an all-together different scale. This has further emboldened market participants to believe that easy money is here to stay.\r\nNow, two very well-accomplished and often contrarian strategists have raised the inflation alarm that could spoil this party – Russel Napier, who authors the highly regarded report <em>Solid Ground </em>and Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. They refer to the government loan guarantees that could trigger commercial banks lending and private money creation that could eventually stoke inflation. Napier predicts inflation in developed markets to hit 4% next year.\r\n<em>“Governments, he thinks, have finally found a way to ensure that commercial banks lend: promise to cover bad debts. Heads, the banks collect the (slim) interest; tails, the government ends up with the losses. Of course banks will lend. “It’s pure politicization of credit,” Mr. Napier said. “This is the magic money tree.” In one way, guaranteeing lending is a stroke of genius. Money quickly gets into the real economy, unlike with Fed bond buying. Sure, people and companies end up with more debt. But that just ups the political incentive for governments to invent new lending programs to refinance each round of debt; Mr. Napier suggests reconstruction loans will come next, then environment loans, maybe even equality loans. Extend and pretend and the bad debts are never realized.</em>\r\n<em>The downside is that the more the government is involved in supporting lending, the more pressure there is to direct the loans to politically popular causes, or at least away from unpopular ones. Private equity can expect to find it harder to borrow, while green energy may find it easier. Businesses might find it harder to access loans if they aren’t in favor with the government of the day. In the long run, having politicians pick winners usually crimps economic growth.</em>\r\n<em>Inflation is both the result of out-of-control private money-creation financing consumption, and the easiest cure for excessive debt. Calling in the bad debts once the economy recovers and the government wants to pull back is politically difficult, and while turning debts into grants is possible—and explicit in the U.S. small business lending program—that would make the debt appear on the government balance sheet. So long as the bad debt keeps being rolled over into new loans, the loan guarantees have a mysterious twilight existence as contingent liabilities, not fully recognized as government debt.</em>\r\n<em>Both this route to inflation and the simpler monetary financing possibility require tacit assent from the central banks, which could stop either by jacking up interest rates. And both are at heart arguments about politics: Is it more likely that governments and central banks will overstimulate and accept higher inflation, or take back from voters in good times what they have given when times are hard?”</em>\r\nWhilst there is no certainty that inflation will spike given the truly uncharted territory we are in, the author worries that the market isn’t pricing in anything remotely close: <em>“True, the natural winners—gold and Treasury inflation-protected securities, known as TIPS—have performed very well this year. But the bond market’s expectation of inflation, calculated as the ordinary Treasury yield minus the TIPS yield, shows inflation of just 1.5% over the next 30 years, and below 1% for the next five years. TIPS yields are low (and gold high) mostly because ordinary Treasury yields are so low. Inflation options allow us to look at the odds: Data from the Minneapolis Fed for late May, the latest available, show only a 5% chance of inflation over the next five years averaging more than 3%. The chance priced into options of inflation averaging less than 1% over the period was 52% (down from 85% in March).”</em></div>', 'If Inflation Is Coming, the Market Isn’t Ready', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3676-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '2020-06-29 07:12:20', '', 3676, 'https://marcellus.in/3676-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3688, 1, '2020-06-29 12:12:54', '2020-06-29 12:12:54', '<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><strong>Portfolio construction based on grandmothers’ stories and advice from snake oil salesmen means that the vast majority of affluent Indians have invested most of their wealth in assets which do not and,cannot deliver returns in excess of the rate of inflation. This skewed portfolio allocation means that millions of Indian families are heading into retirement with portfolios which are being swiftly depleted. How did this happen? And what can be done to retrieve the situation?</strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3658 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"394\" />\n\n<strong>An RBI report acts as a warning bell</strong>\n\nIn August 2017, the RBI published its ‘Indian Household Finance Survey’ (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=8e9a50ea45&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D8e9a50ea45%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGK9NHVRyLZasia3ahWW_AWhYRG6g\">click here</a>). The report highlighted that, amongst other things, <em>“The average Indian household holds 84% of its wealth in real estate and other physical goods, 11% in gold and the residual 5% in financial assets. Retirement accounts play a very limited role in household balance sheets, even at the top of the wealth distribution…Households in advanced economies hold substantially more financial assets than their Indian counterparts, are much more likely to finance home purchasing with a mortgage, and allocate a sizeable fraction of their wealth to retirement savings over the course of their lifetime…The model also cannot explain the observed prominence of physical assets in middle-age, exactly when the potential for the accumulation of financial wealth would be largest…”</em>\n\nDespite the extraordinary nature of the above findings, back in 2017 no one paid too much attention to this report. However, over the last couple of years, having met over 10,000 HNWs, the enormity of the RBI’s 2017 report has hit us – most Indians – including affluent Indians – have allocated the vast majority of their wealth (over 95% according to the RBI report) – to assets which do not and cannot generate a real rate of return. This includes gold, real estate, low-quality debt mutual funds and low-quality stocks. The stage is therefore set for a whole generation of Indians who began working in the early 1980s, and who will retire in the next ten years, to struggle mightily through retirement. How did this disaster take place? And what can be done to mitigate the problems that millions of seemingly affluent Indian families will face as they head into retirement?\n\n<strong>The perils of being an Indian HNW</strong>\n\nThe challenge for affluent Indians who are trying to get their financial planning on track arises from two different sources. Firstly, manufacturers of financial savings products and intermediaries of such products are marketing proactively, and sometimes aggressively, to get a slice of Indian HNWs’ savings pot. Often, these marketing/advertising campaigns have little to do with the facts on the ground. The second challenge facing well-intentioned Indian HNWs is themselves – most affluent investors live in an environment where myths around the pros &amp; cons of various investments proliferate. These myths are often the biggest driver of the investment activities of affluent Indians. We now highlight the four myths that we encounter most often in our discussions with HNWs.\n\n<strong>Myth 1: Gold will help me protect my wealth</strong>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<div>\n\nOver the last 30 years, the price of gold (in rupee terms) has compounded at 9% annualised, marginally higher than the rate of consumer price inflation prevalent in India, thus indicating that gold can act as a reliable store of value in India. However, does holding gold increase your wealth in the Indian context? Over the past three decades, gold has given returns below the rate of inflation in the decade between March 1990 to March 2000 where gold prices rose by 3.5% per annum, and gold has given returns marginally higher than inflation in the decade between March 2010 to March 2020 where gold prices rose by 9.8% per annum. (Source for gold prices: RBI’s database on Indian economy)\n\nWhilst gold does not appear to have the ability to materially augment your wealth – after accounting for the impact inflation – can it improve the risk vs reward trade-off in Indian HNWs’ portfolio i.e. can gold help Indian investors diversify their exposure?\n\nFor gold to be an asset that is a meaningful diversifier it should have zero or negative correlation to the Sensex. If we look at the annual change in prices every month – for gold and for the Sensex – from March 1990 to March 2020, we find the two assets to have a positive correlation of 12%. Whilst this might sound counterintuitive to those who see gold to be a ‘safe haven asset’, especially when equities are under pressure (e.g. during the Lehman Brothers collapse and during the Covid panic in Feb-Apr 2020), a look at the price movements of the two assets validates the positive correlation – see the chart (Exhibit 1) shown above\n\n<strong>Myth 2: Real Estate will help me grow my wealth</strong>\nOver the last five years, if one were to look at metropolitan cities in India such as Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore, one would see that returns on real estate have been around 3-4% per annum i.e. house prices have at best kept pace with consumer inflation, and in major markets like the National Capital Region not even done that (see NHB website: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6df85803ea&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6df85803ea%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHgJPt_FWrip27zu8sSIxAnRDZGw\"><em>click here</em></a><em>)</em>\n\n­­­­­­­­However, there is a school of thought In India which says that because residential real estate returns have been weak over the last 5 years, they will be better going forward. This point of view cannot be sustained when one compares Indian house prices with the prices prevalent in markets outside the country. The first problem is affordability. As shown in the chart below (Exhibit 2), Indian residential house prices, expressed as a proportion of GDP, are 6-10x higher than prices prevalent in other Asian economies.\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3659 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"409\" />\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<div>\n\nSecondly, Indian residential rental yields are around 2-3% in most Indian cities. In contrast, the cost of a home loan for prime residential real estate customers is in the vicinity of 7.5%. The disparity between these numbers suggests that Indian residential real estate still has room to correct before It becomes an attractive asset class.\n\nThirdly, comparing Indian residential rental yields with yields in other countries suggests that the Indian residential property market is significantly overvalued. Other markets where rental yields are comparable to India – say, Singapore and USA – have cost of borrowing in the vicinity of 2-3%. In contrast, as mentioned above, in India, the cost of a home loan even for a prime customer Is around 7.5%. In fact, the cost of a home loan In India Is actually significantly higher than it is in Indonesia (7.5% vs 5%) even though rental yields in Indonesia are much higher than in India (see Global Property Guide website: <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=71ed67bc5b&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D71ed67bc5b%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFn2ocSoRV0LLIQpv0sCoCA0EGNmw\"><em>click here</em></a>)\n\n<strong>Myth 3: Debt mutual funds offer decent returns with low volatility</strong>\nSalespeople who earn a living by selling mutual funds have popularised the idea that HNWs should invest in debt funds which give industry-beating returns. In spite of the repeated high-profile reverses suffered by prominent mutual fund houses who have high risk, low-quality paper in their debt funds, the intermediary community continues to sell such products. So, why are debt funds far riskier to invest than many investors perceive them to be (and many intermediaries let on)? Monika Halan, the personal finance guru, has provided an excellent explanation on the subject on Value Research <em>(<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=c541c99a83&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dc541c99a83%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGj67EPms-VwQJclzPaCmUgShI13g\">click here</a>)</em>\n\nIn our book <em>‘Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Wealth’</em> (2018), we explained the issue in the following manner: A debt mutual fund’s return is a function of: 1) Yield to Maturity or YTM, 2) Mark to Market or MTM, and 3) Expense Ratio. Let’s delve into each of these three items.\n\nMTM and the expense ratio should not differ markedly between debt mutual funds. That brings us to the YTM of a debt fund which is the weighted average yield of all its investments. The yield of a debt fund depends on the credit quality of its portfolio. All corporate debt is ‘rated’ basis the probability of the corporate defaulting on its debt obligations. These ratings are provided by credit rating agencies who, the world over, are conflicted because the issuer of the debt pays the credit rating agency its fees. The debt issuers with the strongest balance sheets get a rating of ‘AAA’ implying that the probability of default is like a government bond. In contrast, the companies with poor debt management may get a rating of ‘B’.\n\nThere tends to be an inverse correlation between the rating enjoyed by the debt issuer and the YTM on the issuer’s bonds i.e. companies with strongest ratings enjoy the lowest YTMs. That in turn means that a fund manager who stuffs his debt portfolio full of highly rated bonds, will have a fund with a low YTM and hence it will give low returns. However, that will make the fund unpopular with the army of salespeople who sell such products. So, fund managers who want to earn big bonuses tend to stuff their debt funds full of bonds with low credit ratings. For a few years such funds deliver high returns and then one day when the whole thing blows up, millions of investors find that their savings in debt funds are worth much less than they thought they would be. For a few years after, HNWs steer clear of debt funds, but as the memory of the previous debt fiasco fades, the intermediaries get to work again and the cycle of wealth destruction repeats itself.\n\n<strong>Myth 4: GDP growth drives the stock market. So, if I can time the economic cycle, I (or my wealth manager) can time the stock market</strong>\n\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3660 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/unnamed-2-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"669\" height=\"408\" />\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"m_3572159981932207622m_32859592885458339templateBody\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<div>\n\nAs pointed out in our 26<sup>th</sup> November 2019 blog, the relationship between Nifty EPS growth and GDP growth seems to have completely broken down in the last five years<em> (<a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b125e4f8ac&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db125e4f8ac%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGNlk_TaxmkJ45WyFznvR62pjcpg\">click here</a>).</em> Note:\n<ul>\n 	<li>The growing gap between the two lines in the chart above; and</li>\n 	<li>The fact that the lines often go in opposite directions.</li>\n</ul>\nHence, the Nifty no longer appears to be a play on the Indian economy.\n\nTo understand why the Nifty no longer captures the dynamism of the Indian economy a good place to start is the index as it stood ten years ago. The ten-year share price return from investing in the Nifty is 9% (on a total return basis) i.e. significantly lower than India’s nominal GDP growth which over the preceding decade has been around 12% per annum.\n\nMore generally, across the world there tends to be low or no correlation between the stock market and GDP growth, implying that timing the stock market is not possible on a systematic basis. Ben Inker of the fund management house, GMO, published an article in 2012 where he concluded that <em>“Stock market returns do not require a particular level of GDP growth, nor does a particular level of GDP growth imply anything about stock market returns.”</em>\n\nThe valuation guru Aswath Damodaran says that the causal relationship instead of running from GDP growth to the stock market instead runs the other way round i.e. stock markets are predictors of GDP growth (rather than being “reflectors of GDP growth”). He highlights a 30% correlation between stock market returns in the US in period t and GDP growth four quarters hence – see slide 8 of this <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=b16f58757a&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Db16f58757a%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEZm7Xp2znd7u2J4qp3bAxp_k9XgA\">presentation</a>.\n\n<strong>Reality: The only reliable way to compound with relatively low risk is CCP</strong>\nNo one that we have met can time the stock market. Neither can we, and we make no attempt to do so. We know of only one way to generate significant real returns in a consistent manner – buy clean, well-managed Indian companies selling essential products behind very high barriers to entry. We call this approach to investing Consistent Compounding and have seen, both in theory and in practice, that it works.\n\nTo build the portfolio without using any human judgement each year on 30<sup>th</sup> June we invest in stocks which in each of the preceding ten years have grown revenues at double digits AND delivered pretax-ROCE of at least 15% per annum (throughout the ten year period). We then hold these stocks for the next ten years. If we had invested Rs 100 using this method on 30<sup>th</sup> June 2000 then in mid-May 2020 our wealth would have compounded to Rs 1463, a compounded return of 14.4% per annum. In contrast, the same exercise with the Sensex would have yielded Rs 673 implying a return of 10.1% per annum. (Note: both returns are expressed on a total return basis.) In short, in the space of twenty years, using the most rudimentary of financial filters, the Consistent Compounding method of investing would give you almost 15x compounding on your wealth as opposed to a mere 7x compounding from the Sensex. For more details, please refer to our book ‘Coffee Can Investing: the Low Risk Route to Stupendous Returns’ (2018).\n\n<em>Saurabh Mukherjea, Deven Kulkarni and Amaya Chinai are CIO, Analyst and Intern respectively at Marcellus Investment Managers (</em><a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a20222c328&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da20222c328%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1593081814263000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGcmGzn1jf2axt8MJ6WCbBD4B2nTg\"><em>www.marcellus.in</em></a><em>)   </em>\n\n</div></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td id=\"m_3572159981932207622m_32859592885458339templateFooter\" valign=\"top\">\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</div></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</div></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<table border=\"0\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"></td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n&nbsp;', 'The Most Damaging Myths in Indian Investing', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3654-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-06-29 12:12:54', '2020-06-29 12:12:54', '', 3654, 'https://marcellus.in/3654-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
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(3750, 1, '2020-07-12 05:57:31', '2020-07-12 05:57:31', 'Whilst this piece is written in the context of investing in the United States, it gels nicely with Marcellus’ investment philosophy. That apart, the piece elegantly explains the benefits of <em>“Identifying, buying and holding very good businesses over a long period of time can help deliver good returns. While there is no universal template, founder-led businesses and those generating strong returns on capital appear to have a correlation with long-term returns.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe piece begins by explaining that the returns a stock generates for you is directly proportional to the company’s Return on Capital. This should be an obvious point but it wasn’t until Charlie Munger made it so three decades ago by saying: <em>“It is hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business that underlies it.” </em>The Seeking Alpha blogger then highlights <em>“Intuitively, this makes sense, because the cash generation that occurs from the business earning high returns on assets can be put to work to further invest in new opportunities and create additional assets that can, in turn, earn higher returns for the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It’s a virtuous cycle of steady and aggressive compounding at high rates of return that can contribute to long-term wealth creation. Various quantitative research studies confirm and support this idea. A study by Forbes found almost a 60% correlation between returns on invested capital and stock returns for a business.” </em>The authors then shows a super chart from Forbes showing a R-squared of 57% (with EV on the vertical axis and ROIC on the horizontal axis).\r\n\r\nThe blog goes on to highlight that such free cash flow generating businesses find themselves in a very strong position when exigencies like Covid come to the fore: <em>“While businesses like United Airlines (UAL) and Ford (F) have had to request government assistance or contemplate other costly strategic capital-raising initiatives, businesses like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) that have $150 billion and $50 billion in cash reserves respectively have been able to get by without needing to resort to any such measures.”</em>\r\n\r\nThirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the blog highlights research done in the US by Bain, the management consultancy, that Founder-led businesses outperform CEO-led businesses: “Research from Bain &amp; Company suggests that the returns of publicly listed, founder-led businesses are significantly higher than those that are governed by a professional ‘corporate manager’:<em> “Some of this is just because founders have their incentives better aligned with shareholders, with founder CEOs such as Marcos Galperin of MercadoLibre having close to 10% of his net wealth in the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, it\'s not just the equity alignment that is important, it\'s also the vision and strategic direction that these founders bring to the business. I believe that this is particularly relevant in new markets, where value is created through the power of disruption or challenging status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Founders in new markets tend to have very deep expertise in their particular industries and a vision for how those industry should be transformed and operate. MarketAxess (MKTX) founder Rick McVey noticed a pain point in the inefficiency of bond transactions, with a direct buyer-to-seller relationship not allowing for optimal bond price discovery and creating transaction inefficiency. Twilio (TWLO) founder Jeff Lawson had a vision of telecommunications being brought to the masses quickly and efficiently in a scalable way, rather than developers having to deal on a case-by-case basis with complex telecom carrier negotiation.”</em>', 'The 5 Elements That Make For An Outstanding Business', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-5-elements-that-make-for-an-outstanding-business', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:09:48', '2020-07-13 06:09:48', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3750', 0, 'story', '', 0),
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(3702, 1, '2020-07-05 06:39:36', '2020-07-05 06:39:36', 'Maria Konnikova used to work for the New Yorker. In January 2017 she took a sabbatical from her job to pursue an unusual goal: <em>“…to train (from scratch) as a professional poker player. The aim was to write a book about the role that chance plays in our lives, using her experiences in the game as the vehicle to explore the subject. And she did have one significant advantage: the legendary player, Erik Seidel, had offered to coach her throughout her quest.”</em>\r\nSo why should you &amp; I care about Maria’s grand experiment? In January 2018 Maria was <em>“…competing in the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure National Championship – one of the oldest and most prestigious live poker tournaments. And her gamble was finally paying off. Over three days, Konnikova beat 290 competitors to win the trophy, along with $84,600 in prize money and a $30,000 package to enter a future tournament…Her account of the experience – The Biggest Bluff – is being published…this week...Konnikova hopes that the lessons learned will be of value far beyond the casino. “This book isn’t about how to play poker,” she writes in one of the early chapters. “It’s about how to play the world.””</em>\r\nWhat can we learn from poker players? A lot it turns out. <em>“The interesting thing about poker, she says, is that it is “a game of incomplete information, which is like life”. Unlike chess, say, so much of what you need to know is hidden from you – so all your decisions come from a place of deep uncertainty. “We never know everything, we can never see the whole board. And yet we have to act all the same.”</em>\r\n<em>You also need to accept that, while skill can predict your overall trajectory across many tournaments, your performance at any particular moment is still the victim of chance. In general, humans tend not to be very good at dealing with this type of thinking, over-estimating the role our own skill thanks to our “illusion of control”. And Konnikova’s own psychological research (conducted before her poker experiment) had shown just how detrimental this can be. Using a simulated stock market, she found that the more people overestimated the importance of their own skill, rather than luck, the less flexible their decision making became – relying too much on their initial hunches without learning from actual patterns in the data.”</em>\r\nSo how can we avoid the traps created by our own brain and by our ego? “…you need to start thinking probabilistically. In poker, that means estimating the odds that someone would have a better or worse hand than you, and adapting your decision making accordingly. Given the high degree of uncertainty, the poker player must also appreciate the concept of variance – the range of possible outcomes from any decision. This means that even if you make a big win, your underlying reasoning could have been flawed, and even if you lose, you might have been making the most logical decision based on the information at hand.”\r\nWhilst poker gurus like Annie Duke have written bestsellers about their journeys as professional players, there seems to be a further unique angle that Konnikova’s book dwells upon – thinking &amp; understanding your own feelings/mood: <em>“Konnikova also had to learn to deal with ‘tilting’ – “a beautiful concept that means letting your emotions seep into the logic of your decision making”. Examples of tilting could include that despair that comes from a string of bad luck, which causes you to gamble more furiously to make up for your losses, or it could be the overconfidence that comes from a win. There is no way to escape it completely, Konnikova cautions – “unless we have a brain lesion, or the neural wiring of a psychopathic brain” – but there are some ways to cope better with its effects.</em>\r\n<em>This includes cultivating greater emotional awareness – “constantly checking in with yourself to see ‘what am I feeling?’ and ‘How am I reacting to this?’” she says. Once you have identified those feelings, you should then try to analyse how they’re influencing your judgement, and whether you should try to account for that in your final decision. (Along these lines, there is some evidence that our emotional vocabulary can improve our financial decision making. People who were more precise in the way they describe their feelings tended to make better trades on an artificial stock market, for example.)”</em>', 'How to think under pressure', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-to-think-under-pressure', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:41:18', '2020-07-06 06:41:18', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3702', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3695, 1, '2020-07-03 05:44:37', '2020-07-03 05:44:37', '<strong>The concept of ‘mean reversion’ is part of both, our everyday life as well as investing. However, inadequate understanding of the ‘mean’ leads to several mistakes in the application of this concept. When it comes to equities, over the long run share prices revert to their fundamentals and hence, clarity of thought around fundamental strengths of a business and its longevity becomes very important in equity investments.</strong>\n\n<strong>Performance update – as on 30<sup>th</sup> June 2020</strong>\nWe have coverage universe of around 25 stocks, which have historically delivered a high degree of consistency in ROCE and revenue growth rates. Our research team of nine analysts focuses on understanding the reasons why companies in our coverage universe have consistently delivered superior financial performance. Based on this understanding, we construct a concentrated portfolio of companies with an intended average holding period of stocks of 8-10 years or longer. The latest performance of our PMS and offshore fund (USD denominated) portfolios is shown in the charts below.\n\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3693\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"635\" height=\"377\" />\n\nAlthough we have outperformed against Nifty50 over the past six months and longer time periods, our underperformance over the past 1 month and 3 months against Nifty50 is driven by three broad factors. Firstly, our portfolio’s outperformance over a longer term is likely to closely track the differential in earnings growth rates for our portfolio vs Nifty50. Whilst this differential in earnings growth has historically been around 10%-15%, our portfolio’s outperformance on a 12-month basis had increased to ~33% as on 31<sup>st</sup> March 2020. Secondly, a mathematical illusion in short term alpha kicks in when stock prices become highly volatile. An example to extrapolate this illusion – if over 3 months, Stock A falls by 80% and Stock B falls by 50%, the alpha of Stock B over Stock A is +30%. In the subsequent 3 months, if Stock A rises by 100% and Stock B rises by 50%, the alpha of Stock B over Stock A during these three months is -50%. However, for the overall six months period, Stock B <em>outperformed</em> over Stock A by +35% (rather than the optical illusion of adding up +30% and -50% and concluding that Stock B might not have outperformed over Stock A meaningfully during the six month period). When it comes to Marcellus’ CCP, almost half of the 3-month underperformance can be attributed to this optical illusion. And thirdly, Reliance Industries has single handedly contributed 6% to the overall performance of Nifty50 over the past three months. We do not have Reliance Industries in our coverage universe (and hence in our clients’ portfolios).\n\n<strong>Concept of ‘mean reversion’ – the risk of applying it in investing without understanding it adequately!</strong>\nThe basic definition of ‘mean reversion’ is that <em>asset prices and historical returns will revert to the long-run mean or average level of the entire dataset.</em> The concept hopes to identify abnormal activity that will revert to a normal pattern in future. In other words, ‘mean reversion’ suggests that cumulative observations matter more than the most recent one.\n\nMany of you would have come across the following statements related to ‘mean reversion’ while investing in equities:\n<ul>\n 	<li><strong>Booking profits (vs booking losses)</strong>: “Since I have to sell part of my equity portfolio, let me sell stock A where I am making a profit rather than selling Stock B where I will have to book a loss.”</li>\n 	<li><strong>Investing at 52 week high!</strong>: “I want to add two stocks to my portfolio – Stock A and Stock B. Stock A is trading close to its 52 week high while Stock B is trading close to its 52 week low. Hence, I should buy Stock B now and I should wait for Stock A to fall before I decide to buy it.”</li>\n 	<li><strong>Investing at rich P/E multiples: </strong>“Current P/E multiple of Stock A is 30% higher than its average P/E multiple for the last 10 years. Hence, Stock A is expensive.”</li>\n</ul>\nOften, the concept of mean reversion fails to hold true for these three statements. Why?\n\nIn our everyday life, we clearly demarcate between areas where ‘mean reversion’ applies and areas where it does not apply. For example, if the city of Mumbai receives rainfall on a day in the month of January, we do not see shoppers on the high-street buying several umbrellas and raincoats. This is because the concept of mean reversion holds true and shoppers do not expect unseasonal rainfall to continue over the next few days. Our cumulative observations over many years matter more than the most recent observation.\n\nHere is another example. A father has two children – a son and a daughter. The daughter always ranks amongst the top 10% of all students in her school (like a stock trading at its 52-week high). The son always ranks amongst the bottom 10% of all students in his school (like a stock’s 52-week low). The mean (average) performance between the two children is around the fifth decile. While planning for his children’s future, this father does not expect ‘mean reversion’ to result in his daughter’s performance to drop down to the fifth decile in future. Why? Because the father understands the factors that have driven the daughter’s strong performance and hence if these driving factors sustain into the future, then her strong performance will also continue in future. In other words, the father understands that the real ‘mean’ applicable for his daughter is the historical track record of top decile performance, and not the fifth decile which is the average of the two children.\n\nThe key to understanding how and where mean reversion applies, lies in the <strong>correct understanding of the ‘mean’</strong> itself. For instance, in the exhibit on the left below, incorrect understanding of the underlying fundamentals (i.e. the ‘mean’) leads to incorrect decision making by the investor, an error which can only be avoided by correct understanding of ‘mean’ – as shown in the exhibit on the right below\n\n<img class=\"alignnone  wp-image-3694\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"713\" height=\"276\" />\n\n&nbsp;', 'Mean Reversion: Universal Truth or Human Delusion?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3692-autosave-v1', '', '', '2020-07-03 05:44:37', '2020-07-03 05:44:37', '', 3692, 'https://marcellus.in/3692-autosave-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3703, 1, '2020-07-06 06:41:18', '2020-07-06 06:41:18', 'Maria Konnikova used to work for the New Yorker. In January 2017 she took a sabbatical from her job to pursue an unusual goal: <em>“…to train (from scratch) as a professional poker player. The aim was to write a book about the role that chance plays in our lives, using her experiences in the game as the vehicle to explore the subject. And she did have one significant advantage: the legendary player, Erik Seidel, had offered to coach her throughout her quest.”</em>\r\nSo why should you &amp; I care about Maria’s grand experiment? In January 2018 Maria was <em>“…competing in the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure National Championship – one of the oldest and most prestigious live poker tournaments. And her gamble was finally paying off. Over three days, Konnikova beat 290 competitors to win the trophy, along with $84,600 in prize money and a $30,000 package to enter a future tournament…Her account of the experience – The Biggest Bluff – is being published…this week...Konnikova hopes that the lessons learned will be of value far beyond the casino. “This book isn’t about how to play poker,” she writes in one of the early chapters. “It’s about how to play the world.””</em>\r\nWhat can we learn from poker players? A lot it turns out. <em>“The interesting thing about poker, she says, is that it is “a game of incomplete information, which is like life”. Unlike chess, say, so much of what you need to know is hidden from you – so all your decisions come from a place of deep uncertainty. “We never know everything, we can never see the whole board. And yet we have to act all the same.”</em>\r\n<em>You also need to accept that, while skill can predict your overall trajectory across many tournaments, your performance at any particular moment is still the victim of chance. In general, humans tend not to be very good at dealing with this type of thinking, over-estimating the role our own skill thanks to our “illusion of control”. And Konnikova’s own psychological research (conducted before her poker experiment) had shown just how detrimental this can be. Using a simulated stock market, she found that the more people overestimated the importance of their own skill, rather than luck, the less flexible their decision making became – relying too much on their initial hunches without learning from actual patterns in the data.”</em>\r\nSo how can we avoid the traps created by our own brain and by our ego? “…you need to start thinking probabilistically. In poker, that means estimating the odds that someone would have a better or worse hand than you, and adapting your decision making accordingly. Given the high degree of uncertainty, the poker player must also appreciate the concept of variance – the range of possible outcomes from any decision. This means that even if you make a big win, your underlying reasoning could have been flawed, and even if you lose, you might have been making the most logical decision based on the information at hand.”\r\nWhilst poker gurus like Annie Duke have written bestsellers about their journeys as professional players, there seems to be a further unique angle that Konnikova’s book dwells upon – thinking &amp; understanding your own feelings/mood: <em>“Konnikova also had to learn to deal with ‘tilting’ – “a beautiful concept that means letting your emotions seep into the logic of your decision making”. Examples of tilting could include that despair that comes from a string of bad luck, which causes you to gamble more furiously to make up for your losses, or it could be the overconfidence that comes from a win. There is no way to escape it completely, Konnikova cautions – “unless we have a brain lesion, or the neural wiring of a psychopathic brain” – but there are some ways to cope better with its effects.</em>\r\n<em>This includes cultivating greater emotional awareness – “constantly checking in with yourself to see ‘what am I feeling?’ and ‘How am I reacting to this?’” she says. Once you have identified those feelings, you should then try to analyse how they’re influencing your judgement, and whether you should try to account for that in your final decision. (Along these lines, there is some evidence that our emotional vocabulary can improve our financial decision making. People who were more precise in the way they describe their feelings tended to make better trades on an artificial stock market, for example.)”</em>', 'How to think under pressure', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3702-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:41:18', '2020-07-06 06:41:18', '', 3702, 'https://marcellus.in/3702-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3704, 1, '2020-07-05 06:41:29', '2020-07-05 06:41:29', 'In last week’s edition of ‘Three Longs &amp; Three Shorts’ we highlighted the views of Russell Napier and Albert Edwards with respect to the potential for inflation to rise going forward (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9daafda0d8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9daafda0d8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFhES4MAFD34E-dAKnNP9LoeUwiuA\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/<wbr />if-inflation-is-coming-the-<wbr />market-isnt-ready-11592305397</a>)<wbr />. In this piece, Ben Carlson interviews Jeremy Siegel (he of ‘Stocks for the Long Run’ fame) on the same subject and elicits some interesting views: <em>“With this liquidity in the economy, as we say, I expect moderate inflation, not — I’m not talking about hyperinflation. And so, I’m nowhere near that. I expect inflation to move up in the next year to 2, 3, 4 percent, 5 percent and maybe run again in 2022 the same way.</em>\r\n<em>So, cumulatively, I expect inflation may be to go up — the price level, consumer price level go up 10, 12 percent over the next few years, maybe 15. Now, don’t forget, we had almost 15 percent inflation in one year back in the terrible years, of the late ’70s.</em>\r\n<em>So, again, this is what I call moderate inflation. I expect bond yields to rise from the current half percent to one, one and a half, two, two and a half, three. They’re still great hedge, short-term hedge. Three, three and a half on treasuries, maybe four.</em>\r\n<em>If we have 15 percent inflation, you wipe out $3 trillion.</em>\r\n<em>So, basically, that’s how you paid for it. Inflation is another way to tax people. It’s a tax on the bondholders.”</em>\r\nThis point – that inflation will basically be used by Western Governments to tax their people and get them to pay for Covid – is then brought home by Carlson using a series of interesting charts (you will have to read the piece to see the charts). The point he makes is: <em>“Inflation went from under 2% in 1945 and 1946 all the way to nearly 20% by 1947. By 1949, it was back under 2% and heading lower. After another minor bout in the early-1950s, inflation would remain subdued until the late-1960s…. ce 1983 inflation has been 5% or more on a trailing 12-month basis just 4% of the time. It’s only been more than 4% around 15% of the time.</em>\r\n<em>This century, higher than average inflation is basically non-existent. Since 2000, it’s been running at 5% or higher less than 1% of the time. And it’s only been 4% or more 6% of the time.”</em>\r\nCarlson then tees up the big question: If inflation rises to more than 4% (which is what Russell Napier and Jeremy Siegel expect), is that a good thing or bad thing? QE-haters will say that the rise of inflation will signal a resurgence of traditional value investing. Carlson takes a different view: <em>“Isn’t this the best-case scenario for the U.S. economy in the coming years? It would signal a boom in the post-Covid economy. The giant debt load we’ve taken on would be cleared up a bit from an inflationary shock. And getting inflation under control after the initial burst would bring things back to normal (if such a thing exists)….While many investors would likely panic if that were to happen, it would be one of the best-case economic scenarios going forward.”</em>', 'How Would Investors React If We Finally Get Some Inflation?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-would-investors-react-if-we-finally-get-some-inflation', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:42:55', '2020-07-06 06:42:55', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3704', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3705, 1, '2020-07-06 06:42:55', '2020-07-06 06:42:55', 'In last week’s edition of ‘Three Longs &amp; Three Shorts’ we highlighted the views of Russell Napier and Albert Edwards with respect to the potential for inflation to rise going forward (see <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9daafda0d8&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9daafda0d8%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFhES4MAFD34E-dAKnNP9LoeUwiuA\">https://www.wsj.com/articles/<wbr />if-inflation-is-coming-the-<wbr />market-isnt-ready-11592305397</a>)<wbr />. In this piece, Ben Carlson interviews Jeremy Siegel (he of ‘Stocks for the Long Run’ fame) on the same subject and elicits some interesting views: <em>“With this liquidity in the economy, as we say, I expect moderate inflation, not — I’m not talking about hyperinflation. And so, I’m nowhere near that. I expect inflation to move up in the next year to 2, 3, 4 percent, 5 percent and maybe run again in 2022 the same way.</em>\r\n<em>So, cumulatively, I expect inflation may be to go up — the price level, consumer price level go up 10, 12 percent over the next few years, maybe 15. Now, don’t forget, we had almost 15 percent inflation in one year back in the terrible years, of the late ’70s.</em>\r\n<em>So, again, this is what I call moderate inflation. I expect bond yields to rise from the current half percent to one, one and a half, two, two and a half, three. They’re still great hedge, short-term hedge. Three, three and a half on treasuries, maybe four.</em>\r\n<em>If we have 15 percent inflation, you wipe out $3 trillion.</em>\r\n<em>So, basically, that’s how you paid for it. Inflation is another way to tax people. It’s a tax on the bondholders.”</em>\r\nThis point – that inflation will basically be used by Western Governments to tax their people and get them to pay for Covid – is then brought home by Carlson using a series of interesting charts (you will have to read the piece to see the charts). The point he makes is: <em>“Inflation went from under 2% in 1945 and 1946 all the way to nearly 20% by 1947. By 1949, it was back under 2% and heading lower. After another minor bout in the early-1950s, inflation would remain subdued until the late-1960s…. ce 1983 inflation has been 5% or more on a trailing 12-month basis just 4% of the time. It’s only been more than 4% around 15% of the time.</em>\r\n<em>This century, higher than average inflation is basically non-existent. Since 2000, it’s been running at 5% or higher less than 1% of the time. And it’s only been 4% or more 6% of the time.”</em>\r\nCarlson then tees up the big question: If inflation rises to more than 4% (which is what Russell Napier and Jeremy Siegel expect), is that a good thing or bad thing? QE-haters will say that the rise of inflation will signal a resurgence of traditional value investing. Carlson takes a different view: <em>“Isn’t this the best-case scenario for the U.S. economy in the coming years? It would signal a boom in the post-Covid economy. The giant debt load we’ve taken on would be cleared up a bit from an inflationary shock. And getting inflation under control after the initial burst would bring things back to normal (if such a thing exists)….While many investors would likely panic if that were to happen, it would be one of the best-case economic scenarios going forward.”</em>', 'How Would Investors React If We Finally Get Some Inflation?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3704-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:42:55', '2020-07-06 06:42:55', '', 3704, 'https://marcellus.in/3704-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3706, 1, '2020-07-05 06:43:05', '2020-07-05 06:43:05', 'For some of us who graduated at the turn of the millennium as electronics and communication engineers, Nortel Networks was a dream company to land your first job at. Besides the chance to work with the brightest people in communications technology, Nortel was front and centre of the dotcom boom, being the leading supplier of networking technology that would power the internet. Less than a decade later, Nortel would go bust. It wasn’t just Nortel, other marquee networking majors were forced to merge – Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia-Siemens. Consolidation among telecom operators amidst falling tariffs which in turn squeezed network equipment vendors was widely blamed. However, this article throws light another important factor – the emergence of Huawei as a low-cost vendor with competitive technology that gave telecom operators the choice. So, how did Huawei come from nowhere and dominate an industry so heavily driven by intellectual property? The article fascinatingly points to potential IP-theft coupled with state backed financing to win deals at throwaway prices to eventually dominating the industry to an extent that it gets to decide the industry standard for 5G technology.\r\n<em>“…in the late 1990s, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service…became aware of “unusual traffic,” suggesting that hackers in China were stealing data and documents from Ottawa….By 2004 the hackers had breached Nortel’s uppermost ranks…</em><em> none other than Frank Dunn, Nortel’s embattled chief executive officer…someone using his login had relayed the PowerPoints and other sensitive files to an IP address registered to Shanghai Faxian Corp….</em>\r\n<em>…in 2003, when Cisco said the Chinese company had stolen source code verbatim from a router, cloning its help screens and even copying its manuals, typos and all. In another suit alleging IP theft, Quintel Technology Ltd., a developer of wireless antennas in Rochester, N.Y., cited a Huawei patent application in the U.S. that contained a copyright notice crediting “Quintel Technology Limited 2009.”</em>\r\n<em>…What isn’t in dispute is that the Nortel hack coincided with a separate offensive by Huawei. This one was totally legal and arguably even more damaging. While Nortel struggled, Huawei thrived thanks to its unique structure—it was privately held, enjoyed generous credit lines from state-owned banks, and had an ability to absorb losses for years before making money on its products. It poached Nortel’s biggest customers and, eventually, hired away the researchers who would give it the lead in 5G networks. “This is plain and simple: Economic espionage did in Nortel,” Shields says. “And all you have to do is look at what entity in the world took over No. 1 and how quickly they did it.”</em>\r\n<em>…the established telecom companies mostly ignored Huawei, seeing it merely as a low-cost competitor that would have trouble competing in their home markets. But in 2005, the company stunned the industry, winning a piece of a £10 billion project to replace 16 national phone networks in the U.K. with a single digital one. Nortel and the telecom </em><a title=\"Marconi Communications Ltd\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=abe6b777f1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dabe6b777f1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1JsnsvcoiN60BZHbAufZ7gjSwbA\"><em>Marconi Corp</em></a><em>. lost out. Then, in 2008, Huawei beat out Nortel on its home turf, landing a contract as part of a C$1 billion wireless network in Canada for <a title=\"TELUS Corporation\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9520cee76e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9520cee76e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEXzS0El-3e3bmPqfntwm4oazvAlg\">Telus Corp.</a> and </em><a title=\"BCE Inc.\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=09f7552950&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D09f7552950%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfsukkYIAFiFwJVKby4wD94NfCiw\"><em>BCE Inc.</em></a><em> In both cases, the Western buyers cited the technical strength of Huawei’s proposals. But it’s widely believed that the gear Huawei sold was also much, much cheaper.</em>\r\n<em>…It overtook Shanghai Bell as the largest domestic maker of switches by bundling free equipment with its contracts. In routers, it took China’s No. 1 spot away from Cisco Systems Inc. by offering a 40% price break on comparable gear.</em>\r\n<em>By the 2000s, Huawei was taking its strategy overseas, with the help of $10.6 billion in credit from China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, both controlled by Beijing. Its credit line would reach $100 billion over the next decade.</em>\r\n<em>“None of the G-7 countries provide levels of financing anywhere near those of the China Development Bank,” said Fred Hochberg, then head of the Export-Import Bank of the U.S., in a 2011 speech. “That keeps me up at night.”</em>\r\n<em>…In 2005 the China Development Bank lent the Nigerian government $200 million to buy Huawei equipment for a national wireless network, offering an absurdly low interest rate, as little as 1%, according to a study by the Japan External Trade Organization. (The benchmark rate at the time was more than 6%.) Huawei’s overseas sales had been $50 million in 1999. By the end of 2005, they’d surged 100-fold, to $5 billion.”</em>\r\nHuawei’s ubiquitous presence across global networks now has raised concerns on data security:\r\n<em>“…In 2013 the cybersecurity company Mandiant announced it had completed an exhaustive investigation into alleged cyberattacks on 141 companies in the U.S., Canada, and other mostly English-speaking nations over the previous nine years. Researchers found that in almost every case, the data led back to a district in Shanghai near a Chinese military unit tasked with spying on computer networks in the U.S. and Canada…The Chinese government was directly involved in economic espionage.</em>\r\n<em>…In June former </em><a title=\"Alphabet Inc.\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a44b51754f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da44b51754f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYqIPQPYv_aJcWnlqIXR5uoi6uWA\"><em>Google</em></a><em> Chairman </em><a title=\"Bloomberg Billionaires Index - Eric Schmidt\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6374b2d13c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6374b2d13c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGl_Kvb3PbQmwDak7s33XjpgemqjQ\"><em>Eric Schmidt</em></a><em> revived allegations about Huawei building backdoors into its technology. “There’s no question that information from Huawei routers has ultimately ended up in hands that would appear to be the state,” he told the BBC, likening the company to a spy agency. </em>\r\n<em>…Chinese law </em><a title=\"Is Huawei compelled by Chinese law to help with espionage?\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=504b399480&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D504b399480%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGaa7b1j7V0YIHMp24lQNl8K2o54g\"><em>obligates companies</em></a><em> to cooperate with national intelligence work and to keep those requests secret. In other words, if asked, Huawei would have to spy for the state and cover up that spying.”</em>\r\nHuawei is no longer simply a low cost vendor. It literally sets the industry standards:\r\n<em>“…as Nortel was collapsing, Huawei quietly hired about 20 Nortel scientists who’d been developing the groundwork for 5G wireless technology…. Wen Tong, once Nortel’s most prolific inventor and now the chief technology officer for Huawei’s wireless business. Tong led the exodus from Nortel to Huawei in 2009, after spending 14 years at the Canadian company. An electrical engineer by training, he’d emigrated from China to study at Montreal’s Concordia University and had amassed more than 100 patents in wireless research, generating some of Nortel’s most valuable intellectual property.</em>\r\n<em>Thousands were looking for jobs in Ottawa, and Huawei offered scientists such as Tong an increasingly rare kind of sanctuary: a </em><a title=\"Huawei CEO Plans to Move Research Facility to Canada: Globe\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=63458747d7&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D63458747d7%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBlcF3g88rASGlH2Z89iK6H2w-qA\"><em>well-funded lab</em></a><em> focused on basic science”</em>\r\nTong led Huawei’s efforts to set the standards for 5G technology with a bit of help from Chinese clout:\r\n<em>“…It seemed clear the Chinese government had pressured its companies not to break ranks with Huawei…The company was also proud of its solution and convinced of its merits. “Huawei had spent so much effort in R&amp;D on polar coding, they just would not give in,” Thelander says. Eventually, around 2 a.m., a compromise was reached: Polar coding was adopted alongside the other protocol. Huawei, in other words, would be central to the development of 5G.</em>\r\n<em>Being the standard setter ensures Huawei royalty payments for years to come. But more important, those who define the standards are the ones most intimately familiar with the technology at the core of the next wave of commercial deployments. In other words, while others are still trying to figure out the blueprint of next-generation infrastructure, Huawei will already be building it.”</em>', 'Did a Chinese Hack Kill Canada\'s Greatest Tech Company?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'did-a-chinese-hack-kill-canadas-greatest-tech-company', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:44:57', '2020-07-06 06:44:57', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3706', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3707, 1, '2020-07-06 06:44:57', '2020-07-06 06:44:57', 'For some of us who graduated at the turn of the millennium as electronics and communication engineers, Nortel Networks was a dream company to land your first job at. Besides the chance to work with the brightest people in communications technology, Nortel was front and centre of the dotcom boom, being the leading supplier of networking technology that would power the internet. Less than a decade later, Nortel would go bust. It wasn’t just Nortel, other marquee networking majors were forced to merge – Alcatel-Lucent and Nokia-Siemens. Consolidation among telecom operators amidst falling tariffs which in turn squeezed network equipment vendors was widely blamed. However, this article throws light another important factor – the emergence of Huawei as a low-cost vendor with competitive technology that gave telecom operators the choice. So, how did Huawei come from nowhere and dominate an industry so heavily driven by intellectual property? The article fascinatingly points to potential IP-theft coupled with state backed financing to win deals at throwaway prices to eventually dominating the industry to an extent that it gets to decide the industry standard for 5G technology.\r\n<em>“…in the late 1990s, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service…became aware of “unusual traffic,” suggesting that hackers in China were stealing data and documents from Ottawa….By 2004 the hackers had breached Nortel’s uppermost ranks…</em><em> none other than Frank Dunn, Nortel’s embattled chief executive officer…someone using his login had relayed the PowerPoints and other sensitive files to an IP address registered to Shanghai Faxian Corp….</em>\r\n<em>…in 2003, when Cisco said the Chinese company had stolen source code verbatim from a router, cloning its help screens and even copying its manuals, typos and all. In another suit alleging IP theft, Quintel Technology Ltd., a developer of wireless antennas in Rochester, N.Y., cited a Huawei patent application in the U.S. that contained a copyright notice crediting “Quintel Technology Limited 2009.”</em>\r\n<em>…What isn’t in dispute is that the Nortel hack coincided with a separate offensive by Huawei. This one was totally legal and arguably even more damaging. While Nortel struggled, Huawei thrived thanks to its unique structure—it was privately held, enjoyed generous credit lines from state-owned banks, and had an ability to absorb losses for years before making money on its products. It poached Nortel’s biggest customers and, eventually, hired away the researchers who would give it the lead in 5G networks. “This is plain and simple: Economic espionage did in Nortel,” Shields says. “And all you have to do is look at what entity in the world took over No. 1 and how quickly they did it.”</em>\r\n<em>…the established telecom companies mostly ignored Huawei, seeing it merely as a low-cost competitor that would have trouble competing in their home markets. But in 2005, the company stunned the industry, winning a piece of a £10 billion project to replace 16 national phone networks in the U.K. with a single digital one. Nortel and the telecom </em><a title=\"Marconi Communications Ltd\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=abe6b777f1&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Dabe6b777f1%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1JsnsvcoiN60BZHbAufZ7gjSwbA\"><em>Marconi Corp</em></a><em>. lost out. Then, in 2008, Huawei beat out Nortel on its home turf, landing a contract as part of a C$1 billion wireless network in Canada for <a title=\"TELUS Corporation\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=9520cee76e&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D9520cee76e%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEXzS0El-3e3bmPqfntwm4oazvAlg\">Telus Corp.</a> and </em><a title=\"BCE Inc.\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=09f7552950&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D09f7552950%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfsukkYIAFiFwJVKby4wD94NfCiw\"><em>BCE Inc.</em></a><em> In both cases, the Western buyers cited the technical strength of Huawei’s proposals. But it’s widely believed that the gear Huawei sold was also much, much cheaper.</em>\r\n<em>…It overtook Shanghai Bell as the largest domestic maker of switches by bundling free equipment with its contracts. In routers, it took China’s No. 1 spot away from Cisco Systems Inc. by offering a 40% price break on comparable gear.</em>\r\n<em>By the 2000s, Huawei was taking its strategy overseas, with the help of $10.6 billion in credit from China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China, both controlled by Beijing. Its credit line would reach $100 billion over the next decade.</em>\r\n<em>“None of the G-7 countries provide levels of financing anywhere near those of the China Development Bank,” said Fred Hochberg, then head of the Export-Import Bank of the U.S., in a 2011 speech. “That keeps me up at night.”</em>\r\n<em>…In 2005 the China Development Bank lent the Nigerian government $200 million to buy Huawei equipment for a national wireless network, offering an absurdly low interest rate, as little as 1%, according to a study by the Japan External Trade Organization. (The benchmark rate at the time was more than 6%.) Huawei’s overseas sales had been $50 million in 1999. By the end of 2005, they’d surged 100-fold, to $5 billion.”</em>\r\nHuawei’s ubiquitous presence across global networks now has raised concerns on data security:\r\n<em>“…In 2013 the cybersecurity company Mandiant announced it had completed an exhaustive investigation into alleged cyberattacks on 141 companies in the U.S., Canada, and other mostly English-speaking nations over the previous nine years. Researchers found that in almost every case, the data led back to a district in Shanghai near a Chinese military unit tasked with spying on computer networks in the U.S. and Canada…The Chinese government was directly involved in economic espionage.</em>\r\n<em>…In June former </em><a title=\"Alphabet Inc.\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=a44b51754f&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3Da44b51754f%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYqIPQPYv_aJcWnlqIXR5uoi6uWA\"><em>Google</em></a><em> Chairman </em><a title=\"Bloomberg Billionaires Index - Eric Schmidt\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=6374b2d13c&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D6374b2d13c%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGl_Kvb3PbQmwDak7s33XjpgemqjQ\"><em>Eric Schmidt</em></a><em> revived allegations about Huawei building backdoors into its technology. “There’s no question that information from Huawei routers has ultimately ended up in hands that would appear to be the state,” he told the BBC, likening the company to a spy agency. </em>\r\n<em>…Chinese law </em><a title=\"Is Huawei compelled by Chinese law to help with espionage?\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=504b399480&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D504b399480%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGaa7b1j7V0YIHMp24lQNl8K2o54g\"><em>obligates companies</em></a><em> to cooperate with national intelligence work and to keep those requests secret. In other words, if asked, Huawei would have to spy for the state and cover up that spying.”</em>\r\nHuawei is no longer simply a low cost vendor. It literally sets the industry standards:\r\n<em>“…as Nortel was collapsing, Huawei quietly hired about 20 Nortel scientists who’d been developing the groundwork for 5G wireless technology…. Wen Tong, once Nortel’s most prolific inventor and now the chief technology officer for Huawei’s wireless business. Tong led the exodus from Nortel to Huawei in 2009, after spending 14 years at the Canadian company. An electrical engineer by training, he’d emigrated from China to study at Montreal’s Concordia University and had amassed more than 100 patents in wireless research, generating some of Nortel’s most valuable intellectual property.</em>\r\n<em>Thousands were looking for jobs in Ottawa, and Huawei offered scientists such as Tong an increasingly rare kind of sanctuary: a </em><a title=\"Huawei CEO Plans to Move Research Facility to Canada: Globe\" href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=63458747d7&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D63458747d7%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076246000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBlcF3g88rASGlH2Z89iK6H2w-qA\"><em>well-funded lab</em></a><em> focused on basic science”</em>\r\nTong led Huawei’s efforts to set the standards for 5G technology with a bit of help from Chinese clout:\r\n<em>“…It seemed clear the Chinese government had pressured its companies not to break ranks with Huawei…The company was also proud of its solution and convinced of its merits. “Huawei had spent so much effort in R&amp;D on polar coding, they just would not give in,” Thelander says. Eventually, around 2 a.m., a compromise was reached: Polar coding was adopted alongside the other protocol. Huawei, in other words, would be central to the development of 5G.</em>\r\n<em>Being the standard setter ensures Huawei royalty payments for years to come. But more important, those who define the standards are the ones most intimately familiar with the technology at the core of the next wave of commercial deployments. In other words, while others are still trying to figure out the blueprint of next-generation infrastructure, Huawei will already be building it.”</em>', 'Did a Chinese Hack Kill Canada\'s Greatest Tech Company?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3706-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:44:57', '2020-07-06 06:44:57', '', 3706, 'https://marcellus.in/3706-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3708, 1, '2020-07-05 06:45:08', '2020-07-05 06:45:08', 'The Kumbh Mela is said to be one of the world’s largest human congregations attracting tens of millions of pilgrims at any given time, obviously posing daunting challenges for the authorities in terms of logistics and crowd safety. Whilst the Kumbh happens every 12 years with the last one in 2013, there is also a mini annual event called the Magh Mela. <em>“Each year, devotees from all across the country congregate at the spot where the Ganges, Yamuna, and mythical Saraswati rivers converge at Prayagraj in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. There, devotees dip in the water, which they believe cleanses them of their sins.</em>” Friends who returned from the last year’s festival marvelled at the hospitality and the efficient management of the event at such a large scale. This article is a refreshingly positive take on the Indian state machinery, often tainted for its corruption and inefficiency. It talks about the high-tech surveillance infrastructure involving artificial intelligence enabled camera systems to facial recognition technology and automated vehicle number plate recognition systems built to estimate crowd density and avoid disaster at such a massive scale. The festival with a long history of stampedes went uneventful last year, thanks to this.\r\n<em>“Over 49 days last year, more than 250 million people took a dip in the sangam, the point where the three rivers meet, with the biggest one-day crowd reaching 50 million. It was the second-largest gathering in history….</em>\r\n<em>…To prepare for the melas, tens of thousands of officials spend months setting up a massive temporary city on the banks of the Ganges. Viewed from above, it is a colorful patchwork divided by big and small bodies of water. Much of this — tents, floating bridges, and metal sheet roads — is built specifically for the festival. As the riverbed floods every year, the city lasts for only several months before the Ganges threatens to reclaim the land.</em>\r\n<em>…This year’s mela was spread over 270 hectares (667 acres), about 30% bigger than Monaco, and divided into six sectors for administrative purposes. Setting up the infrastructure was — and is — an immense logistical feat. The mela has 13 police stations, 40 police outposts, and five thermal power stations. There are five hospitals with operation theaters and 25 beds each, as well as labs, testing facilities, and on-site ambulances. All of this requires a substantial budget. For this year’s mela, the state government budgeted $77 million. Last year, for the Kumbh, it spent $558 million.</em>\r\n<em>…The key tool in the ICCC’s arsenal is the crowd management application (CMA) system, which keeps an eye on crowd density across all 700 camera feeds. The system is taught how much ground area each CCTV camera covers, which then allows it to estimate, with 85% accuracy, the number of people in a space at any given time. If there are more than three people per square meter, the system issues a warning, and the ground police team is notified and instructed to stop, hold, or divert the crowd.</em>\r\n<em>…Hanging over that moment was the memory of the 2013 Kumbh, when a stampede led to the death of 38 people at Allahabad railway station. The exact sequence of events remains contentious, but an inquiry found that North Central Railways authorities had underestimated the crowd size and hadn’t arranged enough trains, while the state government failed to deploy nearly 6,000 buses to relieve pressure. Police also bungled crowd management. This wasn’t the first time that such a tragedy had occurred: since 1820, there have been more than half a dozen stampedes at Kumbh Mela celebrations. In 1954, at the first Kumbh in independent India, up to 500 people died and more than 2,000 were injured when panic broke out.</em>\r\n<em>This time, however, cameras equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) had already flagged areas where human density had reached unsafe levels and alerted officials about an impending stampede. It was the first time that an AI-based crowd management application had ever been used in India. Additionally, in advance of this year’s mela, railway authorities had collaborated with the Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology to develop a crowd-simulation tool that could calculate the amount of time a person takes between entering the station and boarding a train. Extrapolating from that, they estimated that the Allahabad station could handle 10,000 mela passengers in an hour and took measures to keep people safe.</em>\r\n<em>At the ICCC headquarters, authorities issued instructions to cordon off the Johnstongunj junction on the way to the train station and told police on the ground to form a human chain around a 15,000-person crowd. An additional 30,000 people were diverted to a 16-hectare (40-acre) garden to keep them away from the roads. To clear out the train station, the ICCC used camera feeds to estimate the number of additional trains the railways needed to run. By the end of the day, 75 trains had been added, and 300 passenger trains already scheduled to pass through the station were each set to accept between 500 and 1,000 departing pilgrims.”</em>', 'Eyes in the sky', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'eyes-in-the-sky', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:46:48', '2020-07-06 06:46:48', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3708', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3709, 1, '2020-07-06 06:46:48', '2020-07-06 06:46:48', 'The Kumbh Mela is said to be one of the world’s largest human congregations attracting tens of millions of pilgrims at any given time, obviously posing daunting challenges for the authorities in terms of logistics and crowd safety. Whilst the Kumbh happens every 12 years with the last one in 2013, there is also a mini annual event called the Magh Mela. <em>“Each year, devotees from all across the country congregate at the spot where the Ganges, Yamuna, and mythical Saraswati rivers converge at Prayagraj in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. There, devotees dip in the water, which they believe cleanses them of their sins.</em>” Friends who returned from the last year’s festival marvelled at the hospitality and the efficient management of the event at such a large scale. This article is a refreshingly positive take on the Indian state machinery, often tainted for its corruption and inefficiency. It talks about the high-tech surveillance infrastructure involving artificial intelligence enabled camera systems to facial recognition technology and automated vehicle number plate recognition systems built to estimate crowd density and avoid disaster at such a massive scale. The festival with a long history of stampedes went uneventful last year, thanks to this.\r\n<em>“Over 49 days last year, more than 250 million people took a dip in the sangam, the point where the three rivers meet, with the biggest one-day crowd reaching 50 million. It was the second-largest gathering in history….</em>\r\n<em>…To prepare for the melas, tens of thousands of officials spend months setting up a massive temporary city on the banks of the Ganges. Viewed from above, it is a colorful patchwork divided by big and small bodies of water. Much of this — tents, floating bridges, and metal sheet roads — is built specifically for the festival. As the riverbed floods every year, the city lasts for only several months before the Ganges threatens to reclaim the land.</em>\r\n<em>…This year’s mela was spread over 270 hectares (667 acres), about 30% bigger than Monaco, and divided into six sectors for administrative purposes. Setting up the infrastructure was — and is — an immense logistical feat. The mela has 13 police stations, 40 police outposts, and five thermal power stations. There are five hospitals with operation theaters and 25 beds each, as well as labs, testing facilities, and on-site ambulances. All of this requires a substantial budget. For this year’s mela, the state government budgeted $77 million. Last year, for the Kumbh, it spent $558 million.</em>\r\n<em>…The key tool in the ICCC’s arsenal is the crowd management application (CMA) system, which keeps an eye on crowd density across all 700 camera feeds. The system is taught how much ground area each CCTV camera covers, which then allows it to estimate, with 85% accuracy, the number of people in a space at any given time. If there are more than three people per square meter, the system issues a warning, and the ground police team is notified and instructed to stop, hold, or divert the crowd.</em>\r\n<em>…Hanging over that moment was the memory of the 2013 Kumbh, when a stampede led to the death of 38 people at Allahabad railway station. The exact sequence of events remains contentious, but an inquiry found that North Central Railways authorities had underestimated the crowd size and hadn’t arranged enough trains, while the state government failed to deploy nearly 6,000 buses to relieve pressure. Police also bungled crowd management. This wasn’t the first time that such a tragedy had occurred: since 1820, there have been more than half a dozen stampedes at Kumbh Mela celebrations. In 1954, at the first Kumbh in independent India, up to 500 people died and more than 2,000 were injured when panic broke out.</em>\r\n<em>This time, however, cameras equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) had already flagged areas where human density had reached unsafe levels and alerted officials about an impending stampede. It was the first time that an AI-based crowd management application had ever been used in India. Additionally, in advance of this year’s mela, railway authorities had collaborated with the Motilal Nehru National Institute of Technology to develop a crowd-simulation tool that could calculate the amount of time a person takes between entering the station and boarding a train. Extrapolating from that, they estimated that the Allahabad station could handle 10,000 mela passengers in an hour and took measures to keep people safe.</em>\r\n<em>At the ICCC headquarters, authorities issued instructions to cordon off the Johnstongunj junction on the way to the train station and told police on the ground to form a human chain around a 15,000-person crowd. An additional 30,000 people were diverted to a 16-hectare (40-acre) garden to keep them away from the roads. To clear out the train station, the ICCC used camera feeds to estimate the number of additional trains the railways needed to run. By the end of the day, 75 trains had been added, and 300 passenger trains already scheduled to pass through the station were each set to accept between 500 and 1,000 departing pilgrims.”</em>', 'Eyes in the sky', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3708-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:46:48', '2020-07-06 06:46:48', '', 3708, 'https://marcellus.in/3708-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3710, 1, '2020-07-05 06:46:57', '2020-07-05 06:46:57', 'Last week, we published a blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=95ed45b4de&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D95ed45b4de%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076247000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGckr1b4GWz4iekdjdUQPzmrG-_Gg\">“The Most Damaging Myths of Indian Investing”</a> in which the first myth we attempted to bust was that <em>Gold will help me protect my wealth</em>. Earlier this week, Nick Maggiulli put out his weekly blog on the same topic – gold as an investment. Unlike Warren Buffet who has been critical of gold as an asset class for long, given its lack of productive use, Nick starts off with a defence of gold and its value citing scarcity, durability and malleability. But then he also highlights why gold by itself has been an inferior asset class versus equities not just because of the lower returns but also the higher risk. The latter does come across as contrary to popular perception – Nick shows that gold has the highest standard deviation among most asset classes<em>.</em>\r\n<em>“So, you want to own gold for the long run?  If so, you better be comfortable with multi-decade drawdowns. If you aren’t, then welcome to the club.  I used to be a gold investor myself, but sold out of it after I realized how difficult it would be to hold an asset over such long periods of time.  Even with its price run in recent months, gold is still more than 5% off of its 2011 all time highs. </em>\r\n<em>Additionally, gold has much more volatility with much lower returns than many other similarly-risky asset classes (i.e. equities, REITs, etc.).</em>\r\n<em>As you can see, gold seems to break the pattern of “more risk =&gt; more reward.” </em>\r\n<em>Lastly, gold also seems to go through periods of boom and bust, which can be hard for many investors to stomach.”</em>\r\nHowever, Nick makes a case for gold in the portfolio context i.e, by being able to improve the risk-return trade-off of the overall portfolio by being a component of it. He demonstrates that a portfolio with an equal split into three asset classes: the S&amp;P 500 (33.3%), long-term U.S. bonds (33.3%), and emerging market stocks (33.3%) underperforms a similar portfolio but with gold in it i.e, S&amp;P 500 (25%), long-term U.S. bonds (25%), emerging market stocks (25%), and gold (25%) - both in terms of returns and risk.\r\n<em>“The reasoning for gold’s ability to add value at the portfolio level is its low correlation to other traditional risky asset classes (i.e. stocks).  For example, the average correlation of monthly returns between gold and the S&amp;P 500 is basically zero though it has varied historically”</em>\r\nWhy then does the analysis in our blog show a 12% positive correlation between Gold and equities? Our analysis takes Gold price returns in INR. A significant part of the returns Indian investors experience on their gold investment is actually the INR depreciation against the USD which in turn triggers the positive correlation. This, therefore for an Indian investor, perhaps suppresses the balancing effect of Gold on one’s portfolio as Nick has shown.', 'Why is Gold Valuable?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'why-is-gold-valuable', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:48:07', '2020-07-06 06:48:07', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3710', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3711, 1, '2020-07-06 06:48:07', '2020-07-06 06:48:07', 'Last week, we published a blog <a href=\"https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u=52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407&amp;id=95ed45b4de&amp;e=20412dd269\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-saferedirecturl=\"https://www.google.com/url?q=https://linkedin.us19.list-manage.com/track/click?u%3D52ada2ee20240692fbeb44407%26id%3D95ed45b4de%26e%3D20412dd269&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594094076247000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGckr1b4GWz4iekdjdUQPzmrG-_Gg\">“The Most Damaging Myths of Indian Investing”</a> in which the first myth we attempted to bust was that <em>Gold will help me protect my wealth</em>. Earlier this week, Nick Maggiulli put out his weekly blog on the same topic – gold as an investment. Unlike Warren Buffet who has been critical of gold as an asset class for long, given its lack of productive use, Nick starts off with a defence of gold and its value citing scarcity, durability and malleability. But then he also highlights why gold by itself has been an inferior asset class versus equities not just because of the lower returns but also the higher risk. The latter does come across as contrary to popular perception – Nick shows that gold has the highest standard deviation among most asset classes<em>.</em>\r\n<em>“So, you want to own gold for the long run?  If so, you better be comfortable with multi-decade drawdowns. If you aren’t, then welcome to the club.  I used to be a gold investor myself, but sold out of it after I realized how difficult it would be to hold an asset over such long periods of time.  Even with its price run in recent months, gold is still more than 5% off of its 2011 all time highs. </em>\r\n<em>Additionally, gold has much more volatility with much lower returns than many other similarly-risky asset classes (i.e. equities, REITs, etc.).</em>\r\n<em>As you can see, gold seems to break the pattern of “more risk =&gt; more reward.” </em>\r\n<em>Lastly, gold also seems to go through periods of boom and bust, which can be hard for many investors to stomach.”</em>\r\nHowever, Nick makes a case for gold in the portfolio context i.e, by being able to improve the risk-return trade-off of the overall portfolio by being a component of it. He demonstrates that a portfolio with an equal split into three asset classes: the S&amp;P 500 (33.3%), long-term U.S. bonds (33.3%), and emerging market stocks (33.3%) underperforms a similar portfolio but with gold in it i.e, S&amp;P 500 (25%), long-term U.S. bonds (25%), emerging market stocks (25%), and gold (25%) - both in terms of returns and risk.\r\n<em>“The reasoning for gold’s ability to add value at the portfolio level is its low correlation to other traditional risky asset classes (i.e. stocks).  For example, the average correlation of monthly returns between gold and the S&amp;P 500 is basically zero though it has varied historically”</em>\r\nWhy then does the analysis in our blog show a 12% positive correlation between Gold and equities? Our analysis takes Gold price returns in INR. A significant part of the returns Indian investors experience on their gold investment is actually the INR depreciation against the USD which in turn triggers the positive correlation. This, therefore for an Indian investor, perhaps suppresses the balancing effect of Gold on one’s portfolio as Nick has shown.', 'Why is Gold Valuable?', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3710-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:48:07', '2020-07-06 06:48:07', '', 3710, 'https://marcellus.in/3710-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3712, 1, '2020-07-05 06:48:15', '2020-07-05 06:48:15', 'Daily new cases in the US after having been on a decline for almost two months has surged again in the past two weeks with the count well north of 50,000. Whilst this doesn’t seem to suggest a second wave as bulk of the new cases are coming from states which are seeing a late pick up in cases, this article points to another cause for concern - the change in demographics of the infected. Unlike the earlier caseload which had a skew towards older patients, the recent surge has seen a higher proportion of younger people who until now were deemed to be relatively immune. However, as the article suggests, the higher incidence of infection among younger people could also be a reflection of wider testing than earlier and also the relatively free movement of younger folks post lifting the lockdown. The article also stresses that whilst large parts of the infected are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic still suggesting the relative immunity, the fact that they are asymptomatic elevates the risk of them infecting others, particularly the more vulnerable part of society and hence still calls for caution.\r\n<em>“On Wednesday, the U.S. recorded 36,880 new coronavirus cases, the highest single-day total since the pandemic began. According to the CDC, about half of new cases in Florida and Texas are among people younger than 35, many of whom are asymptomatic. California, Washington State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Colorado have also reported an increase in younger adults testing positive.</em>\r\n<em>There are a few reasons public-health officials think we might be seeing this rise. One of them is that at the start of the pandemic, testing was reserved for those who were high-risk or already very ill. Testing has since become more widely available, which means more young people are being tested.</em>\r\n<em>Another theory is made obvious by the timing. The rise has come as states begin to reopen bars and restaurants and as some people return to offices. People in their 20s, 30s, and 40s may feel more cavalier about socializing and returning to their workplaces, which is dangerous both because severe reactions to the virus are possible in young people, and because young people can help to spread the virus asymptomatically.”</em>', 'More Younger People Are Testing Positive for the Coronavirus', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'more-younger-people-are-testing-positive-for-the-coronavirus', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:49:31', '2020-07-06 06:49:31', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3712', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3713, 1, '2020-07-06 06:49:31', '2020-07-06 06:49:31', 'Daily new cases in the US after having been on a decline for almost two months has surged again in the past two weeks with the count well north of 50,000. Whilst this doesn’t seem to suggest a second wave as bulk of the new cases are coming from states which are seeing a late pick up in cases, this article points to another cause for concern - the change in demographics of the infected. Unlike the earlier caseload which had a skew towards older patients, the recent surge has seen a higher proportion of younger people who until now were deemed to be relatively immune. However, as the article suggests, the higher incidence of infection among younger people could also be a reflection of wider testing than earlier and also the relatively free movement of younger folks post lifting the lockdown. The article also stresses that whilst large parts of the infected are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic still suggesting the relative immunity, the fact that they are asymptomatic elevates the risk of them infecting others, particularly the more vulnerable part of society and hence still calls for caution.\r\n<em>“On Wednesday, the U.S. recorded 36,880 new coronavirus cases, the highest single-day total since the pandemic began. According to the CDC, about half of new cases in Florida and Texas are among people younger than 35, many of whom are asymptomatic. California, Washington State, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Colorado have also reported an increase in younger adults testing positive.</em>\r\n<em>There are a few reasons public-health officials think we might be seeing this rise. One of them is that at the start of the pandemic, testing was reserved for those who were high-risk or already very ill. Testing has since become more widely available, which means more young people are being tested.</em>\r\n<em>Another theory is made obvious by the timing. The rise has come as states begin to reopen bars and restaurants and as some people return to offices. People in their 20s, 30s, and 40s may feel more cavalier about socializing and returning to their workplaces, which is dangerous both because severe reactions to the virus are possible in young people, and because young people can help to spread the virus asymptomatically.”</em>', 'More Younger People Are Testing Positive for the Coronavirus', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3712-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-06 06:49:31', '2020-07-06 06:49:31', '', 3712, 'https://marcellus.in/3712-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3716, 1, '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '', 'Snippets', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3715-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '2020-07-07 06:07:17', '', 3715, 'https://marcellus.in/3715-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3719, 1, '2020-07-08 05:01:42', '2020-07-08 05:01:42', '<strong>The Little Champs portfolio delivered a PBT growth of 1% in FY20 (compared to the BSE Smallcap’s median decline of 10-15%), a resilient show despite an economy disturbed by Covid-19 towards the year end. Furthermore, with their cost and cash focus, Little Champs have been able to maintain healthy RoCE (19% pre-tax) and debt levels (net cash equity of 0.1x) in FY20 at the portfolio level. Our channel checks and recent management commentaries indicate demand recovery across most of our portfolio companies particularly those catering to the pharma, chemical and auto sectors. We compare and contrast Little Champs portfolio companies’ performance over FY14-19 against their nearest peers and believe that such outperformance can only get stronger in the coming years as Little Champs use the current crisis to their advantage.</strong>\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Performance update of the live Little Champs Portfolio</u></strong>\r\nAt Marcellus, the key objective of our Little Champs Portfolio is to own a portfolio of about 15 sector leading franchises with a stellar track record of capital allocation, clean accounts &amp; corporate governance and at the same time high growth potential. While we intend to fill our portfolio with winners, we want to be sure of staying away from dubious names where we are not convinced about the cleanliness of accounts or the integrity of the promoters (even though business potential may sound promising) as the fruits of company’s performance may not get shared with minority shareholders. We intend to keep the portfolio churn low (not more than 25-30% per annum) to reap the benefits of compounding as well as minimize trading costs.\r\n\r\nThe Little Champs Portfolio went live on August 29, 2019. The performance so far is shown in the below table.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3720\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"859\" height=\"489\" />\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Little Champs Portfolio is NOT taking any more inflows</u></strong>\r\n\r\nAs communicated earlier, we are committed towards restricting the corpus of Little Champs PMS to around Rs3 bn as we believe that this would enable us to limit investments into only the highest quality small caps and also keep our position in each of the portfolio companies limited (on an average around 1% of the market cap). Since we have reached our targeted corpus, we have closed the fund to new applications and topups. We would like to thank the all the investor and distributors for their overwhelming response to Little Champs.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Portfolio update</u></strong>\r\n\r\nWe exited the only pharma stock in our portfolio (~8% model portfolio allocation) in June 2020 on account of the following reasons:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Deterioration in cash generation and RoCE - </strong>The Company has recorded healthy earnings growth in the recent years (Profit after tax CAGR of 47% over FY16-20). However, there has been significant deterioration in working capital of the company from ‘negative’ 91 days (annualised excluding cash) in FY16 to ‘positive’ 131 days average in FY20 emanating from a sharp rise in trade receivables coupled with a steep decline in payables. This has resulted in average RoCE (pre-tax) declining from 66% in FY16 to 33% in FY20.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li><strong>Concerns surrounding recent acquisitions - </strong>The company announced a few acquisitions in FY20 which resulted in nearly Rs200cr increase in inventory (FY20-end inventory rose to Rs238 crores from only Rs37 crores at FY19-end). These acquisitions have raised further concerns about whether the working capital days and RoCE could see an improvement or even stabilise going forward.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<strong><u>Little Champs’ resilient performance in a tough year (FY20)</u></strong>\r\n\r\nOn an allocation weighted basis, Little Champs portfolio delivered Revenue, EBITDA and PBT growth of 0%, 1% and 1% respectively in FY20 (the YoY PAT figures are not comparable due to the reduction in the income tax rates announced in September 2019). On the other hand, BSE Smallcap index witnessed a median PBT decline of between 10-15% in FY20.\r\n\r\nAt the portfolio level, Little Champs delivered resilient performance in FY20 despite:\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>A persistent macro slowdown through FY20 exacerbated by the lockdown in the crucial last fortnight of March 2020 (a lot of sectors normally witness accelerated demand towards March end due to the onset of the marriage season in North India, vehicles purchased towards year end for depreciation benefits, higher uptake from dealers to avail annual incentive schemes, etc). The lockdown in March 2020 also impacted the earnings of some of our portfolio companies with strong order books as they had to close down their manufacturing operations.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>Some of our portfolio companies in the auto component spaces were specifically impacted in FY20 by an unprecedented demand showdown in the auto sector coupled with higher capex investments in the recent years ahead of BSVI emission norms (effective from April 2020).</li>\r\n</ul>\r\n<ul>\r\n 	<li>The Financial Services stocks in our portfolio went in for conservative provisioning on account of the potential impact of Covid-19 on their loan book in 4QFY20.</li>\r\n</ul>\r\nHowever, the Little Champs continued to mitigate the above demand slowdown impacts on their earnings through cost control measures and conserving cash wherever required. As a result, on a weighted basis, the pre-tax RoCE of the portfolio remained 19% in FY20, significantly ahead of the cost of capital. Similarly, the portfolio continued to be net cash (0.1x equity) at March 2020-end.\r\n\r\n<strong><u>Little Champs well placed for the years ahead</u></strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>Our channel checks/recent management commentary suggest demand recovering quickly across a significant number of our portfolio companies: </strong>\r\n\r\n<strong>1. Companies exposed to pharma, chemicals recovering very fast:</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>“We have an order backlog of Rs350 crores on April 1<sup>st</sup> which is 40% higher than previous year”</strong></em><em> –</em> A leading supplier of process equipments to pharma/agro-chem industries (a portfolio company) in 4QFY20 results conference call;\r\n\r\n<em><strong>“In the pharma industry, more and more intermediates that go into the API could be manufactured in India (shift from China). That can give good long-term growth to the industry”</strong></em><em> – </em>Executive director of a raw material supplier to Pharma/Agro-chem industry (a portfolio company).\r\n\r\nOur channel checks and recent management commentary from the results season suggest that pharma companies, agrochemicals and personal care industries have witnessed significant normalisation in the operations as the demand for these industries continue to be resilient. Hence a significant part of our portfolio (~21% weight) which cater to these end user industries (supply of intermediates, process equipments) is normalising much faster than others.\r\n\r\n<strong>2. Channel checks and June monthly volume trends point towards a recovery in rural dominant automobile categories like two wheelers, tractors and - to some extent - small cars:</strong>\r\n\r\n<em><strong>“Was able to clock nearly 60% of last year’s sales in the month of May 2020 which is quite credible given the absence of marriage season this year”</strong></em> – a leading Honda 2W dealer in Patna\r\n\r\n<em><strong>“The dealerships (which have opened) attained nearly the pre-COVID level of bookings towards the end of May 2020”</strong></em> – Royal Enfield May 2020 volumes press release\r\n\r\n<em><strong>“Retail inquiries, bookings are back at 80-85 per cent of pre-Covid levels</strong></em><em>” </em>- Shashank Srivastava, ED, sales and marketing at Maruti Suzuki (Indian Express, July 2, 2020)\r\n\r\nIn June 2020, wholesale volumes of key two-wheeler players (Hero, Bajaj, HMSI, TVS, Royal Enfield amongst others) reached in excess of 60% of last year June’s sales after reporting nearly negligible sales in the month of April and May 2020. As per press articles, the sales could have been higher but for disruption in supply chains due to gradual ramp-up after reopening and impact on imports from China due to recent geopolitical issues. Similarly, Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai which together account for a bulk of small-compact car sales in India together witnessed a decline of 54% YoY in June wholesales indicating a significant sequential improvement compared to May 2020 levels. In fact, all the key tractor players witnessed strong positive growth during June 2020 indicating the robust sentiments in rural India. All the four auto component stocks (19% weight in our portfolio) in the portfolio are largely exposed to these vehicle categories which augurs well for the recovery in their earnings going forward as demand/production continue to normalise.\r\n\r\n<strong>3. Some greenshoots in the Financial Services sector</strong>\r\n\r\nWhile it may be still early days, but we also hear newsflow (from the media as well as from management of Financial Services companies) about more and more MSMEs opting out of the moratorium particularly in the southern part of India. Similarly, our checks also suggest that banks and NBFCs are starting to lend in sectors where they are gaining confidence about the recoverability of the loans – for instance, the tractor segment. Financial Services have a weight of 16% in the Little Champs portfolio.\r\n\r\n<strong>An opportunity for Little Champs to further consolidate their market share</strong>\r\n\r\nWhile some companies in the portfolio could see a recovery ahead of others depending upon the nature of their end user industry, one theme which we believe would benefit most of our portfolio companies is the opportunity to consolidate their market share from weaker peers.\r\n\r\nLittle Champs portfolio companies have generated weighted net earnings CAGR of 21% over FY14-19. This healthy earnings growth is during a period where the broader corporate earnings have been hard to come by (Nifty net earnings CAGR for the same period has been only 3%) marked by disruptive events like demonetisation, GST introduction and the economic slowdown. A key part of this earnings outperformance for Little Champs has been thanks to their superior RoCEs they have surplus cashflows which they have deployed into strengthening their franchises by investing in products/people/technology, expanding distribution networks and thereby gaining share from weaker peers.\r\n\r\nWe compare and contrast Little Champs portfolio companies’ performance with their nearest peers in the respective sector over FY14-19 in the below table (most of the Little Champs’ peers are unlisted with FY20 numbers not reported so far and hence we cannot do a FY14-20 comparison as of now).\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3721 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"722\" height=\"475\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3722 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"721\" height=\"382\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3723 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"723\" height=\"491\" />\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3724 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"724\" height=\"507\" />\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td width=\"600\">\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>We believe that Financial Services stocks in our portfolio (one bank and one NBFC) have been able to outperform the industry because of a combination of: a) a strong liabilities franchise with favorable Assets Liability Management (ALM) profile; b) comfortable capital adequacy ratios; c) superior quality of loan book compared to their competitors; and d) superior collections capabilities vs peers.\r\n\r\n<img class=\"aligncenter wp-image-3725 size-full\" src=\"https://marcellus.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/unnamed-5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"843\" height=\"294\" />\r\n\r\nWe don’t see any reason why the last five years’ story can’t play out in the current situation. In fact, logic suggests an acceleration in market share by Little Champs going forward. The strong balance sheets of the Little Champs enable them to not only survive the short-term stress but also to continue to invest for future growth unlike their cash starved smaller peers for whom survival will be the key focus over the next few months.\r\n\r\n&nbsp;\r\n\r\n<strong>Regards</strong>\r\n<strong>Team Marcellus</strong></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td>\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td width=\"600\">\r\n<table width=\"100%\">\r\n<tbody>\r\n<tr>\r\n<td></td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>\r\n</td>\r\n</tr>\r\n</tbody>\r\n</table>', 'Little Champs Are Using The Crisis To Their Advantage', '', 'publish', 'closed', 'closed', '', 'little-champs-are-using-the-crisis-to-their-advantage', '', '', '2020-07-08 05:01:42', '2020-07-08 05:01:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=newsletter&#038;p=3719', 0, 'newsletter', '', 0),
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(3735, 1, '2020-06-15 05:39:06', '2020-06-15 05:39:06', '', 'How do we decide on portfolio allocation? | Rakshit Ranjan | Marcellus | PMS', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-do-we-decide-on-portfolio-allocation-rakshit-ranjan-marcellus-pms', '', '', '2020-07-08 08:26:19', '2020-07-08 08:26:19', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3735', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(3737, 1, '2020-06-15 05:41:52', '2020-06-15 05:41:52', '', 'Are Consistent Compounders too big to grow? | Rakshit Ranjan | Marcellus | PMS', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'are-consistent-compounders-too-big-to-grow-rakshit-ranjan-marcellus-pms', '', '', '2020-07-08 08:29:00', '2020-07-08 08:29:00', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3737', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(3740, 1, '2020-06-15 05:45:23', '2020-06-15 05:45:23', '', 'Consistent Compounders outperform in a market crash | Rakshit Ranjan | Marcellus | PMS', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'consistent-compounders-outperform-in-a-market-crash-rakshit-ranjan-marcellus-pms', '', '', '2020-07-08 08:31:42', '2020-07-08 08:31:42', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3740', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(3742, 1, '2020-06-15 05:45:53', '2020-06-15 05:45:53', '', 'Marcellus\' Consistent Compounders Portfolio | Backed by strong earnings growth | Rakshit Ranjan', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-consistent-compounders-portfolio-backed-by-strong-earnings-growth-rakshit-ranjan', '', '', '2020-07-08 08:34:14', '2020-07-08 08:34:14', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3742', 0, 'video', '', 0),
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(3749, 1, '2020-07-10 09:40:02', '2020-07-10 09:40:02', '', 'Marcellus Webinar | Q1FY21 | How are consistent compounders faring amidst the ongoing crisis?', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'marcellus-webinar-q4fy20-how-are-consistent-compounders-faring-amidst-the-ongoing-crisis', '', '', '2020-07-14 05:24:25', '2020-07-14 05:24:25', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=video&#038;p=3749', 0, 'video', '', 0),
(3751, 1, '2020-07-13 06:04:16', '2020-07-13 06:04:16', 'Whilst this piece is written in the context of investing in the United States, it gels nicely with Marcellus’ investment philosophy. That apart, the piece elegantly explains the benefits of <em>“Identifying, buying and holding very good businesses over a long period of time can help deliver good returns. While there is no universal template, founder-led businesses and those generating strong returns on capital appear to have a correlation with long-term returns.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe piece begins by explaining that the returns a stock generates for you is directly proportional to the company’s Return on Capital. This should be an obvious point but it wasn’t until Charlie Munger made it so three decades ago by saying: <em>“It is hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business that underlies it.” </em>The Seeking Alpha blogger then highlights <em>“Intuitively, this makes sense, because the cash generation that occurs from the business earning high returns on assets can be put to work to further invest in new opportunities and create additional assets that can, in turn, earn higher returns for the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It’s a virtuous cycle of steady and aggressive compounding at high rates of return that can contribute to long-term wealth creation. Various quantitative research studies confirm and support this idea. A study by Forbes found almost a 60% correlation between returns on invested capital and stock returns for a business.” </em>The authors then shows a super chart from Forbes showing a R-squared of 57% (with EV on the vertical axis and ROIC on the horizontal axis).\r\n\r\nThe blog goes on to highlight that such free cash flow generating businesses find themselves in a very strong position when exigencies like Covid come to the fore: <em>“While businesses like United Airlines (UAL) and Ford (F) have had to request government assistance or contemplate other costly strategic capital-raising initiatives, businesses like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) that have $150 billion and $50 billion in cash reserves respectively have been able to get by without needing to resort to any such measures.”</em>\r\n\r\nThirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the blog highlights research done in the US by Bain, the management consultancy, that Founder-led businesses outperform CEO-led businesses: “Research from Bain &amp; Company suggests that the returns of publicly listed, founder-led businesses are significantly higher than those that are governed by a professional ‘corporate manager’:<em> “Some of this is just because founders have their incentives better aligned with shareholders, with founder CEOs such as Marcos Galperin of MercadoLibre having close to 10% of his net wealth in the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, it\'s not just the equity alignment that is important, it\'s also the vision and strategic direction that these founders bring to the business. I believe that this is particularly relevant in new markets, where value is created through the power of disruption or challenging status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Founders in new markets tend to have very deep expertise in their particular industries and a vision for how those industry should be transformed and operate. MarketAxess (MKTX) founder Rick McVey noticed a pain point in the inefficiency of bond transactions, with a direct buyer-to-seller relationship not allowing for optimal bond price discovery and creating transaction inefficiency. Twilio (TWLO) founder Jeff Lawson had a vision of telecommunications being brought to the masses quickly and efficiently in a scalable way, rather than developers having to deal on a case-by-case basis with complex telecom carrier negotiation.”</em>', 'The 5 Elements That Make For An Outstanding Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3750-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:04:16', '2020-07-13 06:04:16', '', 3750, 'https://marcellus.in/3750-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3752, 1, '2020-07-13 06:06:46', '2020-07-13 06:06:46', 'Whilst this piece is written in the context of investing in the United States, it gels nicely with Marcellus’ investment philosophy. That apart, the piece elegantly explains the benefits of <em>“Identifying, buying and holding very good businesses over a long period of time can help deliver good returns. While there is no universal template, founder-led businesses and those generating strong returns on capital appear to have a correlation with long-term returns.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe piece begins by explaining that the returns a stock generates for you is directly proportional to the company’s Return on Capital. This should be an obvious point but it wasn’t until Charlie Munger made it so three decades ago by saying: <em>“It is hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business that underlies it.” </em>The Seeking Alpha blogger then highlights <em>“Intuitively, this makes sense, because the cash generation that occurs from the business earning high returns on assets can be put to work to further invest in new opportunities and create additional assets that can, in turn, earn higher returns for the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It’s a virtuous cycle of steady and aggressive compounding at high rates of return that can contribute to long-term wealth creation. Various quantitative research studies confirm and support this idea. A study by Forbes found almost a 60% correlation between returns on invested capital and stock returns for a business.” </em>The authors then shows a super chart from Forbes showing a R-squared of 57% (with EV on the vertical axis and ROIC on the horizontal axis).\r\n\r\nThe blog goes on to highlight that such free cash flow generating businesses find themselves in a very strong position when exigencies like Covid come to the fore: <em>“While businesses like United Airlines (UAL) and Ford (F) have had to request government assistance or contemplate other costly strategic capital-raising initiatives, businesses like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) that have $150 billion and $50 billion in cash reserves respectively have been able to get by without needing to resort to any such measures.”</em>\r\n\r\nThirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the blog highlights research done in the US by Bain, the management consultancy, that Founder-led businesses outperform CEO-led businesses: “Research from Bain &amp; Company suggests that the returns of publicly listed, founder-led businesses are significantly higher than those that are governed by a professional ‘corporate manager’:<em> “Some of this is just because founders have their incentives better aligned with shareholders, with founder CEOs such as Marcos Galperin of MercadoLibre having close to 10% of his net wealth in the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, it\'s not just the equity alignment that is important, it\'s also the vision and strategic direction that these founders bring to the business. I believe that this is particularly relevant in new markets, where value is created through the power of disruption or challenging status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Founders in new markets tend to have very deep expertise in their particular industries and a vision for how those industry should be transformed and operate. MarketAxess (MKTX) founder Rick McVey noticed a pain point in the inefficiency of bond transactions, with a direct buyer-to-seller relationship not allowing for optimal bond price discovery and creating transaction inefficiency. Twilio (TWLO) founder Jeff Lawson had a vision of telecommunications being brought to the masses quickly and efficiently in a scalable way, rather than developers having to deal on a case-by-case basis with complex telecom carrier negotiation.”</em>', 'The 5 Elements That Make For An Outstanding Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3750-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:06:46', '2020-07-13 06:06:46', '', 3750, 'https://marcellus.in/3750-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3753, 1, '2020-07-13 06:09:48', '2020-07-13 06:09:48', 'Whilst this piece is written in the context of investing in the United States, it gels nicely with Marcellus’ investment philosophy. That apart, the piece elegantly explains the benefits of <em>“Identifying, buying and holding very good businesses over a long period of time can help deliver good returns. While there is no universal template, founder-led businesses and those generating strong returns on capital appear to have a correlation with long-term returns.”</em>\r\n\r\nThe piece begins by explaining that the returns a stock generates for you is directly proportional to the company’s Return on Capital. This should be an obvious point but it wasn’t until Charlie Munger made it so three decades ago by saying: <em>“It is hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business that underlies it.” </em>The Seeking Alpha blogger then highlights <em>“Intuitively, this makes sense, because the cash generation that occurs from the business earning high returns on assets can be put to work to further invest in new opportunities and create additional assets that can, in turn, earn higher returns for the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>It’s a virtuous cycle of steady and aggressive compounding at high rates of return that can contribute to long-term wealth creation. Various quantitative research studies confirm and support this idea. A study by Forbes found almost a 60% correlation between returns on invested capital and stock returns for a business.” </em>The authors then shows a super chart from Forbes showing a R-squared of 57% (with EV on the vertical axis and ROIC on the horizontal axis).\r\n\r\nThe blog goes on to highlight that such free cash flow generating businesses find themselves in a very strong position when exigencies like Covid come to the fore: <em>“While businesses like United Airlines (UAL) and Ford (F) have had to request government assistance or contemplate other costly strategic capital-raising initiatives, businesses like Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) that have $150 billion and $50 billion in cash reserves respectively have been able to get by without needing to resort to any such measures.”</em>\r\n\r\nThirdly, and perhaps most interestingly, the blog highlights research done in the US by Bain, the management consultancy, that Founder-led businesses outperform CEO-led businesses: “Research from Bain &amp; Company suggests that the returns of publicly listed, founder-led businesses are significantly higher than those that are governed by a professional ‘corporate manager’:<em> “Some of this is just because founders have their incentives better aligned with shareholders, with founder CEOs such as Marcos Galperin of MercadoLibre having close to 10% of his net wealth in the business.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>However, it\'s not just the equity alignment that is important, it\'s also the vision and strategic direction that these founders bring to the business. I believe that this is particularly relevant in new markets, where value is created through the power of disruption or challenging status quo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Founders in new markets tend to have very deep expertise in their particular industries and a vision for how those industry should be transformed and operate. MarketAxess (MKTX) founder Rick McVey noticed a pain point in the inefficiency of bond transactions, with a direct buyer-to-seller relationship not allowing for optimal bond price discovery and creating transaction inefficiency. Twilio (TWLO) founder Jeff Lawson had a vision of telecommunications being brought to the masses quickly and efficiently in a scalable way, rather than developers having to deal on a case-by-case basis with complex telecom carrier negotiation.”</em>', 'The 5 Elements That Make For An Outstanding Business', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3750-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:09:48', '2020-07-13 06:09:48', '', 3750, 'https://marcellus.in/3750-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3754, 1, '2020-07-12 06:12:39', '2020-07-12 06:12:39', 'We spend a significant amount of our time in Marcellus probing our investee companies’ accounts for fraud &amp; theft. It is exhausting work and given the ingenuity of Indian promoters and the Chartered Accountants they hire, it is never ending work. We often lie in bed thinking about the various ways a promoter could be tricking us and his other shareholders. In that context it comes as a relief to know that investors far mightier than us can be humbled by good old fashioned corporate fraud in….Germany. This NYT article describes how Berkshire Hathaway was tricked into investing in a German company which was padding revenues: <em>“The whistle-blower’s tip eventually led to the exposure of an elaborate conspiracy involving fake sales invoices, phantom customers and hacked computer systems, according to testimony in a legal dispute. The case showed that even Mr. Buffett, one of the shrewdest investors in the world, can be hoodwinked.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What looked like a profitable German manufacturer of specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry was, in fact, nearly bankrupt, according to testimony.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a result, according to the findings of an American arbitration panel, Precision Castparts, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, paid 800 million euros, or $870 million, for a company that was worth only about one-fifth that price. The acquisition of the company, Wilhelm Schulz, was an expensive misstep for Mr. Buffett’s holding company…</em> <em>German prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation focusing on eight suspects at Wilhelm Schulz, all of them former high-ranking executives, finance officials or information technology specialists. None have been charged.”</em>\r\n\r\nOn the face of it, Wilhelm Schulz looked a classic mid-sized German engineering operating in a nice little profitable niche: <em>“On the surface, Wilhelm Schulz seemed like the kind of solid industrial company that has made Germany an export powerhouse. Based in Krefeld, north of Düsseldorf in Germany’s industrial heartland, Schulz appeared to have a strong position in its market niche: specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The chief executive, Wolfgang Schulz, was the son of Wilhelm Schulz, who put his name on the company when he founded it only months after the end of World War II. Wolfgang Schulz was well known locally as the owner of a pro ice hockey team, the Krefeld Penguins.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut underneath this respectable exterior, Wilhelm Schulz seems to have been doing what is known as ‘evergreening’ in India: <em>“…Schulz had narrowly avoided bankruptcy only weeks before. The company had been unable to make payments on a €325 million credit line from Commerzbank, according to the arbitrators’ report. A lawyer hired by Schulz had advised the company that it was obligated under German law to file for insolvency.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Schulz avoided that fate only because it persuaded Commerzbank to front it €8 million more, saying it was waiting for payment from a big customer. The bridge loan came with a proviso. If Schulz couldn’t pay, Commerzbank would effectively take control of the company.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, Schulz was also raising money by discounting its receivables and it is here that the fraud seems to have begun: <em>“Schulz was also raising cash by borrowing against accounts receivable — money that customers owe but have not yet paid — a common practice known as factoring. But some of the documentation that Schulz presented to the lender (and later reviewed by Precision Castparts before the purchase) was fabricated by using Photoshop software to create fake invoices and delivery receipts, the arbitrators found.”</em>\r\n\r\nEven as the Berkshire subsidiary, Precision Castparts, conducted due diligence on Schulz, employees of Schulz’s IT department swung into ingenious action: <em>“…a Schulz information technology employee engineered a five-day outage of the computer system used to track sales and orders. A team at Schulz exploited the downtime to fabricate nearly 50 orders, worth tens of millions of euros, that were backdated to make it look as if they had been placed in 2014 and 2015, according to the arbitrators’ report…</em> <em>a tribunal in New York found that Wolfgang Schulz and his employees had “engaged in a pervasive effort to present a fundamentally misleading picture of the financial condition” of the company. An expert who testified concluded that fake transactions inflated Wilhelm Schulz’s profits by €160 million.”</em>', 'How Berkshire Hathaway May Have Been Snookered in Germany', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-berkshire-hathaway-may-have-been-snookered-in-germany', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:24:11', '2020-07-13 06:24:11', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3754', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3755, 1, '2020-07-13 06:17:31', '2020-07-13 06:17:31', 'We spend a significant amount of our time in Marcellus probing our investee companies’ accounts for fraud &amp; theft. It is exhausting work and given the ingenuity of Indian promoters and the Chartered Accountants they hire, it is never ending work. We often lie in bed thinking about the various ways a promoter could be tricking us and his other shareholders. In that context it comes as a relief to know that investors far mightier than us can be humbled by good old fashioned corporate fraud in….Germany. This NYT article describes how Berkshire Hathaway was tricked into investing in a German company which was padding revenues: <em>“The whistle-blower’s tip eventually led to the exposure of an elaborate conspiracy involving fake sales invoices, phantom customers and hacked computer systems, according to testimony in a legal dispute. The case showed that even Mr. Buffett, one of the shrewdest investors in the world, can be hoodwinked.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What looked like a profitable German manufacturer of specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry was, in fact, nearly bankrupt, according to testimony.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a result, according to the findings of an American arbitration panel, Precision Castparts, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, paid 800 million euros, or $870 million, for a company that was worth only about one-fifth that price. The acquisition of the company, Wilhelm Schulz, was an expensive misstep for Mr. Buffett’s holding company…</em> <em>German prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation focusing on eight suspects at Wilhelm Schulz, all of them former high-ranking executives, finance officials or information technology specialists. None have been charged.”</em>\r\n\r\nOn the face of it, Wilhelm Schulz looked a classic mid-sized German engineering operating in a nice little profitable niche: <em>“On the surface, Wilhelm Schulz seemed like the kind of solid industrial company that has made Germany an export powerhouse. Based in Krefeld, north of Düsseldorf in Germany’s industrial heartland, Schulz appeared to have a strong position in its market niche: specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The chief executive, Wolfgang Schulz, was the son of Wilhelm Schulz, who put his name on the company when he founded it only months after the end of World War II. Wolfgang Schulz was well known locally as the owner of a pro ice hockey team, the Krefeld Penguins.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut underneath this respectable exterior, Wilhelm Schulz seems to have been doing what is known as ‘evergreening’ in India: <em>“…Schulz had narrowly avoided bankruptcy only weeks before. The company had been unable to make payments on a €325 million credit line from Commerzbank, according to the arbitrators’ report. A lawyer hired by Schulz had advised the company that it was obligated under German law to file for insolvency.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Schulz avoided that fate only because it persuaded Commerzbank to front it €8 million more, saying it was waiting for payment from a big customer. The bridge loan came with a proviso. If Schulz couldn’t pay, Commerzbank would effectively take control of the company.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, Schulz was also raising money by discounting its receivables and it is here that the fraud seems to have begun: <em>“Schulz was also raising cash by borrowing against accounts receivable — money that customers owe but have not yet paid — a common practice known as factoring. But some of the documentation that Schulz presented to the lender (and later reviewed by Precision Castparts before the purchase) was fabricated by using Photoshop software to create fake invoices and delivery receipts, the arbitrators found.”</em>\r\n\r\nEven as the Berkshire subsidiary, Precision Castparts, conducted due diligence on Schulz, employees of Schulz’s IT department swung into ingenious action: <em>“…a Schulz information technology employee engineered a five-day outage of the computer system used to track sales and orders. A team at Schulz exploited the downtime to fabricate nearly 50 orders, worth tens of millions of euros, that were backdated to make it look as if they had been placed in 2014 and 2015, according to the arbitrators’ report…</em> <em>a tribunal in New York found that Wolfgang Schulz and his employees had “engaged in a pervasive effort to present a fundamentally misleading picture of the financial condition” of the company. An expert who testified concluded that fake transactions inflated Wilhelm Schulz’s profits by €160 million.”</em>', 'How Berkshire Hathaway May Have Been Snookered in Germany', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3754-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:17:31', '2020-07-13 06:17:31', '', 3754, 'https://marcellus.in/3754-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3756, 1, '2020-07-13 06:19:55', '2020-07-13 06:19:55', 'We spend a significant amount of our time in Marcellus probing our investee companies’ accounts for fraud &amp; theft. It is exhausting work and given the ingenuity of Indian promoters and the Chartered Accountants they hire, it is never ending work. We often lie in bed thinking about the various ways a promoter could be tricking us and his other shareholders. In that context it comes as a relief to know that investors far mightier than us can be humbled by good old fashioned corporate fraud in….Germany. This NYT article describes how Berkshire Hathaway was tricked into investing in a German company which was padding revenues: <em>“The whistle-blower’s tip eventually led to the exposure of an elaborate conspiracy involving fake sales invoices, phantom customers and hacked computer systems, according to testimony in a legal dispute. The case showed that even Mr. Buffett, one of the shrewdest investors in the world, can be hoodwinked.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What looked like a profitable German manufacturer of specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry was, in fact, nearly bankrupt, according to testimony.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a result, according to the findings of an American arbitration panel, Precision Castparts, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, paid 800 million euros, or $870 million, for a company that was worth only about one-fifth that price. The acquisition of the company, Wilhelm Schulz, was an expensive misstep for Mr. Buffett’s holding company…</em> <em>German prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation focusing on eight suspects at Wilhelm Schulz, all of them former high-ranking executives, finance officials or information technology specialists. None have been charged.”</em>\r\n\r\nOn the face of it, Wilhelm Schulz looked a classic mid-sized German engineering operating in a nice little profitable niche: <em>“On the surface, Wilhelm Schulz seemed like the kind of solid industrial company that has made Germany an export powerhouse. Based in Krefeld, north of Düsseldorf in Germany’s industrial heartland, Schulz appeared to have a strong position in its market niche: specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The chief executive, Wolfgang Schulz, was the son of Wilhelm Schulz, who put his name on the company when he founded it only months after the end of World War II. Wolfgang Schulz was well known locally as the owner of a pro ice hockey team, the Krefeld Penguins.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut underneath this respectable exterior, Wilhelm Schulz seems to have been doing what is known as ‘evergreening’ in India: <em>“…Schulz had narrowly avoided bankruptcy only weeks before. The company had been unable to make payments on a €325 million credit line from Commerzbank, according to the arbitrators’ report. A lawyer hired by Schulz had advised the company that it was obligated under German law to file for insolvency.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Schulz avoided that fate only because it persuaded Commerzbank to front it €8 million more, saying it was waiting for payment from a big customer. The bridge loan came with a proviso. If Schulz couldn’t pay, Commerzbank would effectively take control of the company.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, Schulz was also raising money by discounting its receivables and it is here that the fraud seems to have begun: <em>“Schulz was also raising cash by borrowing against accounts receivable — money that customers owe but have not yet paid — a common practice known as factoring. But some of the documentation that Schulz presented to the lender (and later reviewed by Precision Castparts before the purchase) was fabricated by using Photoshop software to create fake invoices and delivery receipts, the arbitrators found.”</em>\r\n\r\nEven as the Berkshire subsidiary, Precision Castparts, conducted due diligence on Schulz, employees of Schulz’s IT department swung into ingenious action: <em>“…a Schulz information technology employee engineered a five-day outage of the computer system used to track sales and orders. A team at Schulz exploited the downtime to fabricate nearly 50 orders, worth tens of millions of euros, that were backdated to make it look as if they had been placed in 2014 and 2015, according to the arbitrators’ report…</em> <em>a tribunal in New York found that Wolfgang Schulz and his employees had “engaged in a pervasive effort to present a fundamentally misleading picture of the financial condition” of the company. An expert who testified concluded that fake transactions inflated Wilhelm Schulz’s profits by €160 million.”</em>', 'How Berkshire Hathaway May Have Been Snookered in Germany', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3754-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:19:55', '2020-07-13 06:19:55', '', 3754, 'https://marcellus.in/3754-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3757, 1, '2020-07-13 06:24:11', '2020-07-13 06:24:11', 'We spend a significant amount of our time in Marcellus probing our investee companies’ accounts for fraud &amp; theft. It is exhausting work and given the ingenuity of Indian promoters and the Chartered Accountants they hire, it is never ending work. We often lie in bed thinking about the various ways a promoter could be tricking us and his other shareholders. In that context it comes as a relief to know that investors far mightier than us can be humbled by good old fashioned corporate fraud in….Germany. This NYT article describes how Berkshire Hathaway was tricked into investing in a German company which was padding revenues: <em>“The whistle-blower’s tip eventually led to the exposure of an elaborate conspiracy involving fake sales invoices, phantom customers and hacked computer systems, according to testimony in a legal dispute. The case showed that even Mr. Buffett, one of the shrewdest investors in the world, can be hoodwinked.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>What looked like a profitable German manufacturer of specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry was, in fact, nearly bankrupt, according to testimony.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a result, according to the findings of an American arbitration panel, Precision Castparts, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary, paid 800 million euros, or $870 million, for a company that was worth only about one-fifth that price. The acquisition of the company, Wilhelm Schulz, was an expensive misstep for Mr. Buffett’s holding company…</em> <em>German prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation focusing on eight suspects at Wilhelm Schulz, all of them former high-ranking executives, finance officials or information technology specialists. None have been charged.”</em>\r\n\r\nOn the face of it, Wilhelm Schulz looked a classic mid-sized German engineering operating in a nice little profitable niche: <em>“On the surface, Wilhelm Schulz seemed like the kind of solid industrial company that has made Germany an export powerhouse. Based in Krefeld, north of Düsseldorf in Germany’s industrial heartland, Schulz appeared to have a strong position in its market niche: specialized pipes for the oil and gas industry.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The chief executive, Wolfgang Schulz, was the son of Wilhelm Schulz, who put his name on the company when he founded it only months after the end of World War II. Wolfgang Schulz was well known locally as the owner of a pro ice hockey team, the Krefeld Penguins.”</em>\r\n\r\nBut underneath this respectable exterior, Wilhelm Schulz seems to have been doing what is known as ‘evergreening’ in India: <em>“…Schulz had narrowly avoided bankruptcy only weeks before. The company had been unable to make payments on a €325 million credit line from Commerzbank, according to the arbitrators’ report. A lawyer hired by Schulz had advised the company that it was obligated under German law to file for insolvency.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Schulz avoided that fate only because it persuaded Commerzbank to front it €8 million more, saying it was waiting for payment from a big customer. The bridge loan came with a proviso. If Schulz couldn’t pay, Commerzbank would effectively take control of the company.”</em>\r\n\r\nHowever, Schulz was also raising money by discounting its receivables and it is here that the fraud seems to have begun: <em>“Schulz was also raising cash by borrowing against accounts receivable — money that customers owe but have not yet paid — a common practice known as factoring. But some of the documentation that Schulz presented to the lender (and later reviewed by Precision Castparts before the purchase) was fabricated by using Photoshop software to create fake invoices and delivery receipts, the arbitrators found.”</em>\r\n\r\nEven as the Berkshire subsidiary, Precision Castparts, conducted due diligence on Schulz, employees of Schulz’s IT department swung into ingenious action: <em>“…a Schulz information technology employee engineered a five-day outage of the computer system used to track sales and orders. A team at Schulz exploited the downtime to fabricate nearly 50 orders, worth tens of millions of euros, that were backdated to make it look as if they had been placed in 2014 and 2015, according to the arbitrators’ report…</em> <em>a tribunal in New York found that Wolfgang Schulz and his employees had “engaged in a pervasive effort to present a fundamentally misleading picture of the financial condition” of the company. An expert who testified concluded that fake transactions inflated Wilhelm Schulz’s profits by €160 million.”</em>', 'How Berkshire Hathaway May Have Been Snookered in Germany', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3754-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:24:11', '2020-07-13 06:24:11', '', 3754, 'https://marcellus.in/3754-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3758, 1, '2020-07-12 06:25:32', '2020-07-12 06:25:32', 'Much has been written about the rise of hyper-nationalism with strong men at the helm across countries the world over. This outstanding essay by Bruno Macaes, Portugal’s former secretary of state, attributes this rise to the inherently conflicting perceptions of the concept of western civilisation by nations world over and their reaction to that. The rise of globalisation integrating nations economically implicitly brought about cultural and societal integration - <em>“</em><em>A world society seemed to be advancing. But then the civilization-state struck back”. </em>Macaes articulates why the west’s rather implicit imposition of the paradigm of ‘universal society’ on the rest of the world in particular Asia and Africa, has threatened to diminish the role of tradition and culture in societies with roots in ancient civilisation. This, Macaes says, is bringing about the confrontation between the concept of nation-state vs civilisation-state, as seen with the developments in China and India in recent years.\r\n\r\n<em>“’Always remember that China is a civilization rather than a nation-state’…. The myth that China is destined to be assimilated to a Western model of political society is over. From now on, the Chinese would be treading their own “Sonderweg” — special path. Progress with Chinese characteristics.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a civilization-state, China is organized around culture rather than politics. Linked to a civilization, the state has the paramount task of protecting a specific cultural tradition.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The importance of this concept became more obvious to me in India during a conversation with Ram Madhav, the general secretary of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. After a conference in Delhi, he explained: “From now on, Asia will rule the world, and that changes everything because in Asia, we have civilizations rather than nations.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…There was a time when that [western] liberal philosophy was taken seriously almost everywhere. Many of the independence movements in what used to be called the “third world” fully subscribed to it and used the language of human rights and the rule of law against the European colonizer.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The world of the civilization-state is the natural political world. Think of how states are built and how they expand. If a state has developed a successful formula to organize social relations and collective power, it will tend to absorb its neighbors. As it expands and concentrates new forms of wealth, social life will become increasingly complex. Myths will be created, the arts and sciences will prosper... A way of life — a way to see the world and interpret the human condition — will develop. Outside the realm, other states will offer alternatives, but because these alternatives are in turn different ways to think and to live, states are coextensive with civilizations and subordinate to the civilizational form.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The modern West broke with this mold. From the perspective of what had come before, Western political societies had oddly misplaced scientific ambitions. They wanted their political values to be accepted universally, much like a scientific theory enjoys universal validity. In order to achieve this — we shall have occasion to doubt whether it was ever achieved — a monumental effort of abstraction and simplification was needed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem with Western universalism was twofold. First, Western values seemed to many people living in Asia or Africa as just one alternative among many. The promise that traditional ways of life could be preserved in a liberal society was a fatal conceit. Were Turkey or China or Russia to import the whole set of Western values and rules, their societies would soon become replicas of the West and lose their cultural independence. While this process was seen as the necessary price of becoming modern, cultural assimilation kept its prestige. But lately, doubts have been growing about whether it is really necessary to imitate Western nations in order to acquire all the benefits of modern society. There was a second difficulty: Western values and norms still needed to be interpreted and enforced, and the most powerful nations in the West had always arrogated that task to themselves.</em>\r\n\r\nThe Three longs and three shorts is guilty of featuring a disproportionate share of articles from the western media houses such as the NYT, FT and the Economist all of which, the author notes, are exhibits to his point about the west’s attempt to impose its beliefs on the rest of the world.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is remarkable, when one thinks about it, that every controversial issue being decided in a successful democracy such as India should be subject to a final determination of its legitimacy by Western political and intellectual authorities. No one seems to take seriously the possibility that an editorial in The Hindu could settle the issue, but the leading newspapers in New York, Washington or London gladly take up the task. Cultural assimilation meant political dependence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If, to all appearances, we have returned to a world of civilization-states, the root cause is the collapse of the concept of a world civilization. American political scientist Samuel Huntington started from this realization, arguing in one of the starkest passages of his book “The Clash of Civilizations” that “the concept of a universal civilization helps justify Western cultural dominance of other societies and the need for those societies to ape Western practices and institutions.” Universalism is the ideology of the West for confronting other cultures. Naturally, everyone outside the West, Huntington argued, should see the idea of one world as a threat.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>I believe Huntington was right, but only half right. It is true that people in Russia, China, India and many other countries increasingly see the concept of Western civilization through a different prism, as one civilization among many, with no particular claim to universality. That in itself is a mere intellectual determination. What follows is more consequential: If the West feels entitled to pursue its particular vision with all the tools of state power — in many cases, even military power — why should others refrain from doing the same? Why should they refrain from building a state around their own conception of the good life, a state with a whole civilization behind it? Their ambitions were more modest in any event — they were meant to be one alternative among many.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The return of the civilization-state poses a delicate problem for the West. Remember that to a great extent, Western societies have sacrificed their specific cultures for the sake of a universal project. One can no longer find the old tapestry of traditions and customs or a vision of the good life in these societies. Their values tell us what we can do but are silent on what we should do. And then there is this question, particularly acute in Europe: Now that we have sacrificed our own cultural traditions to create a universal framework for the whole planet, are we now supposed to be the only ones to adopt it?”</em>', 'The Attack of The Civilization State', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-attack-of-the-civilization-state', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:30:39', '2020-07-13 06:30:39', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3758', 0, 'story', '', 0);
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(3759, 1, '2020-07-13 06:30:39', '2020-07-13 06:30:39', 'Much has been written about the rise of hyper-nationalism with strong men at the helm across countries the world over. This outstanding essay by Bruno Macaes, Portugal’s former secretary of state, attributes this rise to the inherently conflicting perceptions of the concept of western civilisation by nations world over and their reaction to that. The rise of globalisation integrating nations economically implicitly brought about cultural and societal integration - <em>“</em><em>A world society seemed to be advancing. But then the civilization-state struck back”. </em>Macaes articulates why the west’s rather implicit imposition of the paradigm of ‘universal society’ on the rest of the world in particular Asia and Africa, has threatened to diminish the role of tradition and culture in societies with roots in ancient civilisation. This, Macaes says, is bringing about the confrontation between the concept of nation-state vs civilisation-state, as seen with the developments in China and India in recent years.\r\n\r\n<em>“’Always remember that China is a civilization rather than a nation-state’…. The myth that China is destined to be assimilated to a Western model of political society is over. From now on, the Chinese would be treading their own “Sonderweg” — special path. Progress with Chinese characteristics.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>As a civilization-state, China is organized around culture rather than politics. Linked to a civilization, the state has the paramount task of protecting a specific cultural tradition.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The importance of this concept became more obvious to me in India during a conversation with Ram Madhav, the general secretary of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. After a conference in Delhi, he explained: “From now on, Asia will rule the world, and that changes everything because in Asia, we have civilizations rather than nations.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…There was a time when that [western] liberal philosophy was taken seriously almost everywhere. Many of the independence movements in what used to be called the “third world” fully subscribed to it and used the language of human rights and the rule of law against the European colonizer.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…The world of the civilization-state is the natural political world. Think of how states are built and how they expand. If a state has developed a successful formula to organize social relations and collective power, it will tend to absorb its neighbors. As it expands and concentrates new forms of wealth, social life will become increasingly complex. Myths will be created, the arts and sciences will prosper... A way of life — a way to see the world and interpret the human condition — will develop. Outside the realm, other states will offer alternatives, but because these alternatives are in turn different ways to think and to live, states are coextensive with civilizations and subordinate to the civilizational form.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The modern West broke with this mold. From the perspective of what had come before, Western political societies had oddly misplaced scientific ambitions. They wanted their political values to be accepted universally, much like a scientific theory enjoys universal validity. In order to achieve this — we shall have occasion to doubt whether it was ever achieved — a monumental effort of abstraction and simplification was needed.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The problem with Western universalism was twofold. First, Western values seemed to many people living in Asia or Africa as just one alternative among many. The promise that traditional ways of life could be preserved in a liberal society was a fatal conceit. Were Turkey or China or Russia to import the whole set of Western values and rules, their societies would soon become replicas of the West and lose their cultural independence. While this process was seen as the necessary price of becoming modern, cultural assimilation kept its prestige. But lately, doubts have been growing about whether it is really necessary to imitate Western nations in order to acquire all the benefits of modern society. There was a second difficulty: Western values and norms still needed to be interpreted and enforced, and the most powerful nations in the West had always arrogated that task to themselves.</em>\r\n\r\nThe Three longs and three shorts is guilty of featuring a disproportionate share of articles from the western media houses such as the NYT, FT and the Economist all of which, the author notes, are exhibits to his point about the west’s attempt to impose its beliefs on the rest of the world.\r\n\r\n<em>“It is remarkable, when one thinks about it, that every controversial issue being decided in a successful democracy such as India should be subject to a final determination of its legitimacy by Western political and intellectual authorities. No one seems to take seriously the possibility that an editorial in The Hindu could settle the issue, but the leading newspapers in New York, Washington or London gladly take up the task. Cultural assimilation meant political dependence.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>If, to all appearances, we have returned to a world of civilization-states, the root cause is the collapse of the concept of a world civilization. American political scientist Samuel Huntington started from this realization, arguing in one of the starkest passages of his book “The Clash of Civilizations” that “the concept of a universal civilization helps justify Western cultural dominance of other societies and the need for those societies to ape Western practices and institutions.” Universalism is the ideology of the West for confronting other cultures. Naturally, everyone outside the West, Huntington argued, should see the idea of one world as a threat.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>I believe Huntington was right, but only half right. It is true that people in Russia, China, India and many other countries increasingly see the concept of Western civilization through a different prism, as one civilization among many, with no particular claim to universality. That in itself is a mere intellectual determination. What follows is more consequential: If the West feels entitled to pursue its particular vision with all the tools of state power — in many cases, even military power — why should others refrain from doing the same? Why should they refrain from building a state around their own conception of the good life, a state with a whole civilization behind it? Their ambitions were more modest in any event — they were meant to be one alternative among many.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The return of the civilization-state poses a delicate problem for the West. Remember that to a great extent, Western societies have sacrificed their specific cultures for the sake of a universal project. One can no longer find the old tapestry of traditions and customs or a vision of the good life in these societies. Their values tell us what we can do but are silent on what we should do. And then there is this question, particularly acute in Europe: Now that we have sacrificed our own cultural traditions to create a universal framework for the whole planet, are we now supposed to be the only ones to adopt it?”</em>', 'The Attack of The Civilization State', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3758-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:30:39', '2020-07-13 06:30:39', '', 3758, 'https://marcellus.in/3758-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3760, 1, '2020-07-12 06:32:44', '2020-07-12 06:32:44', 'In the first few days of the lockdown, we featured a piece in 3L-3S, which waxed eloquent about the benefits of Working From Home (WFH) and how it is here to stay. Indeed, the ensuing period saw several large corporations implementing policies where large proportions of their workforce would end up WFH permanently. Facebooks aims to have half its workforce work from home whilst India’s very own TCS has set a goal of having not more than 25% of their staff work from its office premises by 2025. However, nearing four months of WFH, from our own experience at Marcellus and elsewhere, suggests it is not a one-way street. There are significant challenges even in industries which are largely digital in nature for WFH, especially around collaboration, efficiency and culture. Despite the temptations of reduction in office rentals, several businesses are keenly getting their staff back in office. This piece in the NYT brings this other side of the WFH argument and presents a finely balanced case - for and against. It starts of by reminding people that this hasn’t been the first drive towards WFH and the experience historically hasn’t been particularly great.\r\n\r\n<em>“A few years ago, Mr. Laermer let the employees of RLM Public Relations work from home on Fridays. This small step toward telecommuting proved a disaster, he said. He often couldn’t find people when he needed them. Projects languished.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Every weekend became a three-day holiday,” he said. “I found that people work so much better when they’re all in the same physical space.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>IBM came to a similar decision. In 2009, 40 percent of its 386,000 employees in 173 countries worked remotely. But in 2017, with revenue slumping, management called thousands of them back to the office.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Working from home is a strategic move, not just a tactical one that saves money,” said Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics. “A lot of it comes down to trust. Do you trust your people?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Companies large and small have been trying for decades to make working from home work. As long ago as 1985, the mainstream media was using phrases like “the growing telecommuting movement.” Peter Drucker, the management guru, declared in 1989 that “commuting to office work is obsolete.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Telecommuting was a technology-driven innovation that seemed to offer benefits to both employees and executives. The former could eliminate ever-lengthening commutes and work the hours that suited them best. Management would save on high-priced real estate and could hire applicants who lived far from the office, deepening the talent pool.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And yet many of the ventures were eventually downsized or abandoned. Apart from IBM, companies that publicly pulled back on telecommuting over the past decade include Aetna, Best Buy, Bank of America, Yahoo, AT&amp;T and Reddit. Remote employees often felt marginalized, which made them less loyal. Creativity, innovation and serendipity seemed to suffer.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Marissa Mayer, the chief executive of Yahoo, created a furor when she forced employees back into offices in 2013. “Some of the best decisions and insights come from hallway and cafeteria discussions, meeting new people and impromptu team meetings,” a company memo explained.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Tech companies proceeded to spend billions on ever more lavish campuses that employees need never leave. Facebook announced plans in 2018 for what were essentially dormitories. Amazon redeveloped an entire Seattle neighborhood. When Patrick Pichette, the former chief financial officer at Google, was asked, “How many people telecommute at Google?” he said he liked to answer, “As few as possible.”</em>', 'The Long Unhappy History of Working From Home', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'the-long-unhappy-history-of-working-from-home', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:36:04', '2020-07-13 06:36:04', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3760', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3761, 1, '2020-07-13 06:36:04', '2020-07-13 06:36:04', 'In the first few days of the lockdown, we featured a piece in 3L-3S, which waxed eloquent about the benefits of Working From Home (WFH) and how it is here to stay. Indeed, the ensuing period saw several large corporations implementing policies where large proportions of their workforce would end up WFH permanently. Facebooks aims to have half its workforce work from home whilst India’s very own TCS has set a goal of having not more than 25% of their staff work from its office premises by 2025. However, nearing four months of WFH, from our own experience at Marcellus and elsewhere, suggests it is not a one-way street. There are significant challenges even in industries which are largely digital in nature for WFH, especially around collaboration, efficiency and culture. Despite the temptations of reduction in office rentals, several businesses are keenly getting their staff back in office. This piece in the NYT brings this other side of the WFH argument and presents a finely balanced case - for and against. It starts of by reminding people that this hasn’t been the first drive towards WFH and the experience historically hasn’t been particularly great.\r\n\r\n<em>“A few years ago, Mr. Laermer let the employees of RLM Public Relations work from home on Fridays. This small step toward telecommuting proved a disaster, he said. He often couldn’t find people when he needed them. Projects languished.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Every weekend became a three-day holiday,” he said. “I found that people work so much better when they’re all in the same physical space.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>IBM came to a similar decision. In 2009, 40 percent of its 386,000 employees in 173 countries worked remotely. But in 2017, with revenue slumping, management called thousands of them back to the office.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>“Working from home is a strategic move, not just a tactical one that saves money,” said Kate Lister, president of Global Workplace Analytics. “A lot of it comes down to trust. Do you trust your people?”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Companies large and small have been trying for decades to make working from home work. As long ago as 1985, the mainstream media was using phrases like “the growing telecommuting movement.” Peter Drucker, the management guru, declared in 1989 that “commuting to office work is obsolete.”</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Telecommuting was a technology-driven innovation that seemed to offer benefits to both employees and executives. The former could eliminate ever-lengthening commutes and work the hours that suited them best. Management would save on high-priced real estate and could hire applicants who lived far from the office, deepening the talent pool.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>And yet many of the ventures were eventually downsized or abandoned. Apart from IBM, companies that publicly pulled back on telecommuting over the past decade include Aetna, Best Buy, Bank of America, Yahoo, AT&amp;T and Reddit. Remote employees often felt marginalized, which made them less loyal. Creativity, innovation and serendipity seemed to suffer.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Marissa Mayer, the chief executive of Yahoo, created a furor when she forced employees back into offices in 2013. “Some of the best decisions and insights come from hallway and cafeteria discussions, meeting new people and impromptu team meetings,” a company memo explained.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Tech companies proceeded to spend billions on ever more lavish campuses that employees need never leave. Facebook announced plans in 2018 for what were essentially dormitories. Amazon redeveloped an entire Seattle neighborhood. When Patrick Pichette, the former chief financial officer at Google, was asked, “How many people telecommute at Google?” he said he liked to answer, “As few as possible.”</em>', 'The Long Unhappy History of Working From Home', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3760-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:36:04', '2020-07-13 06:36:04', '', 3760, 'https://marcellus.in/3760-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3762, 1, '2020-07-12 06:38:24', '2020-07-12 06:38:24', 'In May this year, the Indian Prime Minister launched the \'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan\' or \'Self-Reliant India Mission\' to reduce dependence on imports and boost domestic manufacturing. Given the large share of electronic goods in the import bill, naturally this is one industry that is high up on the priority for this mission. Whilst it might help achieve import substitution, it may not necessarily help with job creation, an equally imperative need to make the demographic dividend work in favour of economic growth – thanks to large scale automation in electronics manufacturing. As this article in the Nikkei Asian Review shows, Sony has achieved almost complete automation in this factory in Japan that  makes the world’s favourite gaming console – Playstation. And at no mean scale - PS4, its fourth-generation console, alone has so far earned Sony c.$100bn in revenues and c.$10bn in profits.\r\n\r\n<em>“Sony\'s PlayStation has won hundreds of millions of fans across the world since its launch in 1994. But few know just how much of the console\'s success can be attributed to an unassuming factory located just across the bay from Tokyo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>On the outskirts of Kisarazu, a large, white building towers over an otherwise suburban landscape. Once inside, visitors are greeted by the whirring of motors as dozens of robots seamlessly churn out PlayStation 4 consoles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Just a few humans were present to deal with a handful of tasks -- two to feed bare motherboards to the line, and two to package the finished consoles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But the actual assembly is done entirely by articulated robots, supplied by Mitsubishi Electric. The 31.4-meter line, completed in 2018, has the ability to churn out a new console every 30 seconds.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One of the plant\'s crowning achievements is the use of robots to attach wires, tape and other flexible parts to the consoles. Twenty-six out of 32 robots at the Kisarazu plant are dedicated to the task, deftly handling materials most robots would find too finicky.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For example, attaching the flexible flat cable -- a tape-like electrical cord -- requires one robot arm to hold up the cable and another to twist it. The cable then needs to be attached in a specific direction using just the right pressure, which may seem simple for a human but is an extremely complex maneuver for robot.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"There\'s probably no other site that can manipulate robots in this manner,\" said an engineer. Every process -- all the way to final packaging -- is automated. The blend of robotic and human labor is painstakingly optimized with a priority on return on investment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"I created profitable production lines,\" said Hiroyuki Kusakabe, general architect at SGMO.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The focus on productivity traces its DNA back to the original PlayStation that came out in Japan in December 1994. Teiyu Goto, the designer of the original console, concentrated on crafting a gaming system that lends itself easily to mass production.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Goto reportedly pushed the engineers at the Kisarazu site to improve productivity. The refined production tech was then transferred to contract manufacturers.”</em>', 'PlayStation\'s secret weapon: a nearly all-automated factory', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'playstations-secret-weapon-a-nearly-all-automated-factory', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:41:40', '2020-07-13 06:41:40', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3762', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3763, 1, '2020-07-13 06:41:40', '2020-07-13 06:41:40', 'In May this year, the Indian Prime Minister launched the \'Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan\' or \'Self-Reliant India Mission\' to reduce dependence on imports and boost domestic manufacturing. Given the large share of electronic goods in the import bill, naturally this is one industry that is high up on the priority for this mission. Whilst it might help achieve import substitution, it may not necessarily help with job creation, an equally imperative need to make the demographic dividend work in favour of economic growth – thanks to large scale automation in electronics manufacturing. As this article in the Nikkei Asian Review shows, Sony has achieved almost complete automation in this factory in Japan that  makes the world’s favourite gaming console – Playstation. And at no mean scale - PS4, its fourth-generation console, alone has so far earned Sony c.$100bn in revenues and c.$10bn in profits.\r\n\r\n<em>“Sony\'s PlayStation has won hundreds of millions of fans across the world since its launch in 1994. But few know just how much of the console\'s success can be attributed to an unassuming factory located just across the bay from Tokyo.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>On the outskirts of Kisarazu, a large, white building towers over an otherwise suburban landscape. Once inside, visitors are greeted by the whirring of motors as dozens of robots seamlessly churn out PlayStation 4 consoles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Just a few humans were present to deal with a handful of tasks -- two to feed bare motherboards to the line, and two to package the finished consoles.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>But the actual assembly is done entirely by articulated robots, supplied by Mitsubishi Electric. The 31.4-meter line, completed in 2018, has the ability to churn out a new console every 30 seconds.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>One of the plant\'s crowning achievements is the use of robots to attach wires, tape and other flexible parts to the consoles. Twenty-six out of 32 robots at the Kisarazu plant are dedicated to the task, deftly handling materials most robots would find too finicky.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>For example, attaching the flexible flat cable -- a tape-like electrical cord -- requires one robot arm to hold up the cable and another to twist it. The cable then needs to be attached in a specific direction using just the right pressure, which may seem simple for a human but is an extremely complex maneuver for robot.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"There\'s probably no other site that can manipulate robots in this manner,\" said an engineer. Every process -- all the way to final packaging -- is automated. The blend of robotic and human labor is painstakingly optimized with a priority on return on investment.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>\"I created profitable production lines,\" said Hiroyuki Kusakabe, general architect at SGMO.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>The focus on productivity traces its DNA back to the original PlayStation that came out in Japan in December 1994. Teiyu Goto, the designer of the original console, concentrated on crafting a gaming system that lends itself easily to mass production.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Goto reportedly pushed the engineers at the Kisarazu site to improve productivity. The refined production tech was then transferred to contract manufacturers.”</em>', 'PlayStation\'s secret weapon: a nearly all-automated factory', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3762-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:41:40', '2020-07-13 06:41:40', '', 3762, 'https://marcellus.in/3762-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0),
(3764, 1, '2020-07-12 06:42:35', '2020-07-12 06:42:35', 'Bollywood, as the Hindi film industry is widely referred to, is most known for its colourful ‘song and dance’ sequences. However, this article in the Mint uses IMDB data over the last decade to show how that might not be any more than just a banal description of Hindi films. Bollywood seems to be coming of age, not just in the corporatisation of the industry but also in terms of genre mix of movies. Data shows that action and romance are no longer among top genres giving way to comedy and thriller as among the most prolific of genres in Hindi films, much like the genre mix in Hollywood.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most common genres in Hindi films in the 2010s were drama, comedy and thrillers, as how Hollywood has always been. This means that for the first time in the era of colour films, the action genre did not figure in the top three, and romance, too, took a hit, continuing the decline it has seen since the 2000s.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…For each decade since the 1960s, we recorded the most common genres across feature films produced in Hindi and major vernacular languages in India, and in English in the US (Hollywood). All productions tagged as “feature films\" irrespective of box office performances were considered for this analysis.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Drama is the top genre across industries, across time, and covers over 50% of Hindi films released since 2010 that are listed on IMDb. Over a quarter of all Bollywood films were comedies and a fifth were thrillers. Just two decades ago, the top three genres were drama, action and romance.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>.. Hindi cinema is far behind in offbeat genres such as horror and science fiction. India’s ventures into sci-fi are limited to infrequent releases such as Ra.One and Krrish, which critics say are no match to Hollywood’s seasoned forays. Just 5% Hindi films were horror, against 18% for Hollywood in the past 10 years.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…One cannot miss the rise of biographies. The genre that never made up for more than 1% of all films in previous decades, scored 2.8% in the 2010-19 period, with lives of sportspersons Mary Kom and M.S. Dhoni, actor Sanjay Dutt, and even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, adapted on screen to much fanfare in recent years.”</em>', 'How Hindi films edged closer to Hollywood over the past decade', '', 'publish', 'open', 'closed', '', 'how-hindi-films-edged-closer-to-hollywood-over-the-past-decade', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:47:02', '2020-07-13 06:47:02', '', 0, 'https://marcellus.in/?post_type=story&#038;p=3764', 0, 'story', '', 0),
(3765, 1, '2020-07-13 06:47:02', '2020-07-13 06:47:02', 'Bollywood, as the Hindi film industry is widely referred to, is most known for its colourful ‘song and dance’ sequences. However, this article in the Mint uses IMDB data over the last decade to show how that might not be any more than just a banal description of Hindi films. Bollywood seems to be coming of age, not just in the corporatisation of the industry but also in terms of genre mix of movies. Data shows that action and romance are no longer among top genres giving way to comedy and thriller as among the most prolific of genres in Hindi films, much like the genre mix in Hollywood.\r\n\r\n<em>“The most common genres in Hindi films in the 2010s were drama, comedy and thrillers, as how Hollywood has always been. This means that for the first time in the era of colour films, the action genre did not figure in the top three, and romance, too, took a hit, continuing the decline it has seen since the 2000s.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…For each decade since the 1960s, we recorded the most common genres across feature films produced in Hindi and major vernacular languages in India, and in English in the US (Hollywood). All productions tagged as “feature films\" irrespective of box office performances were considered for this analysis.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>Drama is the top genre across industries, across time, and covers over 50% of Hindi films released since 2010 that are listed on IMDb. Over a quarter of all Bollywood films were comedies and a fifth were thrillers. Just two decades ago, the top three genres were drama, action and romance.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>.. Hindi cinema is far behind in offbeat genres such as horror and science fiction. India’s ventures into sci-fi are limited to infrequent releases such as Ra.One and Krrish, which critics say are no match to Hollywood’s seasoned forays. Just 5% Hindi films were horror, against 18% for Hollywood in the past 10 years.</em>\r\n\r\n<em>…One cannot miss the rise of biographies. The genre that never made up for more than 1% of all films in previous decades, scored 2.8% in the 2010-19 period, with lives of sportspersons Mary Kom and M.S. Dhoni, actor Sanjay Dutt, and even Prime Minister Narendra Modi, adapted on screen to much fanfare in recent years.”</em>', 'How Hindi films edged closer to Hollywood over the past decade', '', 'inherit', 'closed', 'closed', '', '3764-revision-v1', '', '', '2020-07-13 06:47:02', '2020-07-13 06:47:02', '', 3764, 'https://marcellus.in/3764-revision-v1/', 0, 'revision', '', 0);

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(19, 'June 2019', 'june-2019', 0),
(20, 'Long Read', 'long-read', 0),
(21, 'Short Read', 'short-read', 0),
(22, 'July 2019', 'july-2019', 0),
(23, 'footer-left-1', 'footer-left-1', 0),
(24, 'footer-left-2', 'footer-left-2', 0),
(25, 'Little Champs', 'little-champs', 0),
(26, 'Consistent Compounders', 'consistent-compounders', 0);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_term_relationships`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_term_relationships` (
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  `term_taxonomy_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `term_order` int(11) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0'
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_term_relationships`
--

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-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_term_taxonomy`
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--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_term_taxonomy`
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(11, 11, 'category', '', 5, 3),
(12, 12, 'category', '', 0, 0),
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(18, 18, 'category', '', 5, 3),
(19, 19, 'category', '', 5, 3),
(20, 20, 'category', 'Long read', 0, 248),
(21, 21, 'category', 'Short read', 0, 249),
(22, 22, 'category', '', 5, 0),
(23, 23, 'nav_menu', '', 0, 7),
(24, 24, 'nav_menu', '', 0, 6),
(25, 25, 'newsletter_categories', '', 0, 10),
(26, 26, 'newsletter_categories', '', 0, 17);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_usermeta`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_usermeta` (
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  `user_id` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
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  `meta_value` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_usermeta`
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INSERT INTO `mr_usermeta` (`umeta_id`, `user_id`, `meta_key`, `meta_value`) VALUES
(1, 1, 'nickname', 'marcel-admin'),
(2, 1, 'first_name', ''),
(3, 1, 'last_name', ''),
(4, 1, 'description', ''),
(5, 1, 'rich_editing', 'true'),
(6, 1, 'syntax_highlighting', 'true'),
(7, 1, 'comment_shortcuts', 'false'),
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(13, 1, 'mr_user_level', '10'),
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(58, 1, 'session_tokens', 'a:2:{s:64:\"6b2288d6b32b4cfe066f6457d0f6392cf0ff286f5d512a1433498915836af875\";a:4:{s:10:\"expiration\";i:1594964014;s:2:\"ip\";s:14:\"47.247.179.173\";s:2:\"ua\";s:115:\"Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/83.0.4103.116 Safari/537.36\";s:5:\"login\";i:1593754414;}s:64:\"ce30f629d7a2d69d3646d64d17a02c030a72636dce7853bbe3a447724eea5a72\";a:4:{s:10:\"expiration\";i:1594968159;s:2:\"ip\";s:13:\"157.35.240.57\";s:2:\"ua\";s:115:\"Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 10.0; Win64; x64) AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko) Chrome/83.0.4103.116 Safari/537.36\";s:5:\"login\";i:1594795359;}}'),
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-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_users`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_users` (
  `ID` bigint(20) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
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  `user_pass` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `user_nicename` varchar(50) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
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  `user_url` varchar(100) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `user_registered` datetime NOT NULL DEFAULT '0000-00-00 00:00:00',
  `user_activation_key` varchar(255) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT '',
  `user_status` int(11) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `display_name` varchar(250) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL DEFAULT ''
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_users`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_users` (`ID`, `user_login`, `user_pass`, `user_nicename`, `user_email`, `user_url`, `user_registered`, `user_activation_key`, `user_status`, `display_name`) VALUES
(1, 'marcel-admin', '$P$Bb7s03ppAG7OX.n4Ebh.d.TDh/ctro1', 'marcel-admin', 'rajendar.dasari@wwindia.com', '', '2018-11-05 08:46:35', '', 0, 'marcel-admin');

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_vxcf_sales`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_vxcf_sales` (
  `id` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `form_id` varchar(60) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `account` mediumint(8) NOT NULL,
  `is_active` tinyint(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1',
  `sort` mediumint(8) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `name` varchar(240) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `object` varchar(200) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `meta` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `data` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `time` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_vxcf_sales`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales` (`id`, `form_id`, `account`, `is_active`, `sort`, `name`, `object`, `meta`, `data`, `time`) VALUES
(1, 'cf_28', 1, 1, 0, 'Contact Distributor Web to Lead', 'Lead', NULL, '{\"map\":{\"first_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"text-996\"},\"last_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"text-371\"},\"email\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"email-563\"},\"company\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"city\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"state\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"salutation\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"title\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"URL\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"phone\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"tel-182\"},\"mobile\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"fax\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"street\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"zip\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"country\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"description\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"your-message\"},\"lead_source\":{\"type\":\"value\",\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"field\":\"text-996\"},\"industry\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"rating\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"revenue\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"employees\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"emailOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"faxOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"doNotCall\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"}},\"filters\":{\"1\":{\"1\":{\"field\":\"\",\"op\":\"is\",\"value\":\"\"}}},\"web_camp_id\":\"\",\"web_mem_status\":\"\"}', '2019-02-25 10:29:53'),
(2, 'cf_29', 1, 1, 0, 'Contact Investor', 'Lead', NULL, '{\"map\":{\"first_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"text-604\"},\"last_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"text-373\"},\"email\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"email-510\"},\"company\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"city\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"state\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"salutation\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"title\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"URL\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"phone\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"tel-299\"},\"mobile\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"fax\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"street\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"zip\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"country\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"description\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"your-message\"},\"lead_source\":{\"type\":\"value\",\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"field\":\"text-604\"},\"industry\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"rating\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"revenue\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"employees\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"emailOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"faxOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"doNotCall\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"}},\"filters\":{\"1\":{\"1\":{\"field\":\"\",\"op\":\"is\",\"value\":\"\"}}},\"web_camp_id\":\"\",\"web_mem_status\":\"\"}', '2019-02-25 10:29:57'),
(3, 'cf_1662', 1, 1, 0, 'Enquiry Lead', 'Lead', NULL, '{\"map\":{\"first_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"last_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"your-name\"},\"email\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"your-email\"},\"company\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"city\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"state\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"salutation\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"title\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"URL\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"phone\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"mobile\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"tel-309\"},\"fax\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"street\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"zip\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"country\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"description\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"lead_source\":{\"type\":\"value\",\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"field\":\"\"},\"industry\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"rating\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"revenue\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"employees\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"emailOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"faxOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"doNotCall\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"720874218\":{\"name_c\":\"recordType\",\"type\":\"value\",\"value\":\"Investor\",\"field\":\"\"}},\"filters\":{\"1\":{\"1\":{\"field\":\"\",\"op\":\"is\",\"value\":\"\"}}},\"web_camp_id\":\"\",\"web_mem_status\":\"\"}', '2019-09-25 06:00:16'),
(4, 'cf_3184', 1, 1, 0, 'Contact menu-596', 'Lead', NULL, '{\"map\":{\"first_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"text-172\"},\"last_name\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"email\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"email-503\"},\"company\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"city\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"state\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"salutation\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"title\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"URL\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"phone\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"tel-800\"},\"mobile\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"fax\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"street\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"zip\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"country\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"description\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"your-message\"},\"lead_source\":{\"type\":\"value\",\"value\":\"Website\\/{menu-596}\",\"field\":\"menu-596\"},\"industry\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"rating\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"revenue\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"employees\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"emailOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"faxOptOut\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"},\"doNotCall\":{\"type\":\"\",\"value\":\"\",\"field\":\"\"}},\"filters\":{\"1\":{\"1\":{\"field\":\"\",\"op\":\"is\",\"value\":\"\"}}},\"web_camp_id\":\"\",\"web_mem_status\":\"\"}', '2020-04-24 13:38:16'),
(5, '', 0, 1, 0, '', '', NULL, NULL, NULL);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_vxcf_sales_accounts`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_vxcf_sales_accounts` (
  `id` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `name` varchar(250) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `data` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `meta` longtext COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `status` int(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT '0',
  `time` datetime DEFAULT NULL,
  `updated` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_vxcf_sales_accounts`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_accounts` (`id`, `name`, `data`, `meta`, `status`, `time`, `updated`) VALUES
(1, 'Account #1', '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', NULL, 1, '2019-02-11 14:11:24', '2020-04-24 04:32:51'),
(2, '', NULL, NULL, 9, NULL, NULL);

-- --------------------------------------------------------

--
-- Table structure for table `mr_vxcf_sales_log`
--

CREATE TABLE `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (
  `id` int(11) UNSIGNED NOT NULL,
  `entry_id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `form_id` varchar(60) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `feed_id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `parent_id` int(11) NOT NULL,
  `crm_id` varchar(200) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `object` varchar(200) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `link` varchar(250) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `meta` varchar(250) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `event` varchar(200) COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci NOT NULL,
  `data` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `response` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `extra` text COLLATE utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci,
  `status` tinyint(1) NOT NULL DEFAULT '1',
  `time` datetime DEFAULT NULL
) ENGINE=MyISAM DEFAULT CHARSET=utf8mb4 COLLATE=utf8mb4_unicode_520_ci;

--
-- Dumping data for table `mr_vxcf_sales_log`
--

INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(1, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Kanaw \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Agarwal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8655573853\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Kanaw created lead from Distributor form\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Contact distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 07:07:56'),
(2, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Snehal \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dalvi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"snehal@cloudroute.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"18655573853\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 07:25:18'),
(3, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Test\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Salesforce\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shobittest@cloudroute.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"1234567890\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 07:30:18'),
(4, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Kanav \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Agrawal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"7620346480\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Welcome to Cloudroute\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Contact distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 08:04:27'),
(5, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhishek \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Deshmukh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"deshmukh@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"78451245820\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 08:06:08'),
(6, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"mr.\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jain\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"Jain@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"1545121\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 08:32:38'),
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(8, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Test\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jio\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jio@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"6484162\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 08:38:35'),
(9, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Dr\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Prashant\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prashant@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"124574520\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\" SxsyxfytcfRSCFUYttgkaxhUHLij.,KMxns.kugxuslCIUJnh,nss.LIcj;c\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 10:59:55'),
(10, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"DR\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"TEST\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"test@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"798545120026\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"sxVSxkgkvksjhxvUYhxbljhzb>IAj\\\\\'poK\\r\\n[;\\r\\n][p=-AIX9AIXHJKZN \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Contact distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 11:01:00'),
(11, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhijeet\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Naik\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"abhijeet.naik1278@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+919819107520\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi. I am an individual investor. I would like to get more information about the Consistent Compounders portfolio along with the terms and conditions and fee structure of the same. Thanks, Abhijeet Naik.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-12 12:11:22'),
(12, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Srikanth\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"PK\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"srikanth.13.1@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09945027270\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Looking at a coffee can kind of a Pms service \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"contact investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-13 07:22:39'),
(13, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Karan \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Barmecha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"karan@pinkbullinvestors.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8971236363\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Please share details for a PMS tie-up across Bangalore\\/ Kolkata\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Contact distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-13 09:18:05'),
(14, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Shobit \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Mittal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shobitest@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"76203355210\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"hdbckjdhbcdsjhb cdkd jhbjh bhbjzhdbcjhdbljhxb\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Contact distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-02-13 15:33:13'),
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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 500$ \\r\\nCompanies of RF 3012045 - 300$ \\r\\nUkraine 605745 of domain names - 100$ \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domains - 200$ \\r\\nNew domains of the RF, registered 24-48 hours ago (A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 250$ \\r\\n \\r\\nOur databases: \\r\\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \\r\\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\\\\\'s service at the request. \\r\\n \\r\\nP.S. \\r\\nPlease, do not respond to this offer from your electronic box, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \\r\\nContact E-mail: feedback-contact@seznam.cz \\r\\n \\r\\nPRICE LIST: \\r\\n \\r\\nTest mailing: $20 \\u2013 10000 contact forms websites \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites \\u2013 $1100 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites \\u2013 $1000 \\r\\n 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(171, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Jitender\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saraha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mittal.pk1@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9717458282\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"we wish to join the PMS scheme of yours\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-06 04:56:39'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(212, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Kenneth\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Evans\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kennethevans34@gmx.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"(15) 5552-6685\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Howdy,\\r\\n\\r\\nI\\\\\'ll keep this brief.\\r\\n\\r\\nWe run a guest posting platform that allows our clients to get backlinks from our database of sites. For publishing each article, we pay these sites a set editorial fee. Is this something that would interest you?\\r\\n\\r\\nIf yes, then more details can be found here including a sign up form: https:\\/\\/goo.gl\\/forms\\/RtWIvojZxyZaw4VB2\\r\\n\\r\\nHope to hear from you soon and thanks for your time.\\r\\n\\r\\nKind Regards,\\r\\nKenneth Evans\\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\nP.S: Kindly note, this is a paid guest post opportunity only.Thanks\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-23 02:11:33'),
(213, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sharad\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kochhar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"skms11@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09818929000\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-23 07:02:44'),
(214, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Williamscepe\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Williamscepe\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"plan.b.fundingoptions@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"272456254\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello from Plan B - Funding Options LLC \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\n*If you\\\\\'re thinking about starting your own business or if you need funding for most other reasons there\\\\\'s 3 things that you need to keep in mind. \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\n1. You need to make a well thought out plan, try to cover everything you want to accomplish and think of what could go wrong along the way. You could create a business plan and or executive summary to use as your guideline. As a rule, it\\u2019s best NOT to ask family or friends for money its best to use (other people\\u2019s money) a funding source that you have no personal relationship with. \\r\\n \\r\\n2.  Expect your plan to fail in part or full in many cases this will happen no matter how well you thought out your plan. Unforeseen obstacles and speed bumps often will come in your path that prevent your plans from going as you had projected. \\r\\n \\r\\n3.Always without exception have a (Plan B). And that\\\\\'s where we come in. We are your Plan B! \\r\\n \\r\\n*Please visit our website for details at: https:\\/\\/www.planbfundingoptions.com \\r\\n \\r\\nEmail us for funding or questions info@planbfundingoptions.com \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nCall Us    : 949-682-9235 (California Office) \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\n**If you do not need funding at this time, perhaps you know someone who does. We Pay Referral Fees!!! See this link to the page on our website that explains what it means for you! http:\\/\\/www.planbfundingoptions.com\\/we-pay-referral-fees.html\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-23 17:04:38'),
(215, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Grishma\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Myatra\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"grishma@blackhattalent.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+919820115430 \",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello,\\r\\nThis is in regards to the possibility of having Mr. Mukherjea as a guest speaker for the below corporate events:\\r\\n\\u2022  Dates- 27th May in Mumbai and 30th May in Bangalore\\r\\n\\u2022  Client- An IT Company\\r\\n\\u2022  Event type- Tech Fiesta- It\\u2019s an annual event of the company where they showcase new technologies and bring all customers & partners together \\r\\n\\u2022  Audience Profile and size- Customers and partners of the company; approx. 200 pax\\r\\n\\r\\nPlease share his availability for both the dates and expected honorarium for both the possibilities i.e in case of booking 1 event and in case of booking 2 events.\\r\\nPlease feel free to call or write back in case of any queries \\r\\n\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-24 07:14:10'),
(216, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"JeffreyIsops\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"JeffreyIsops\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mayewiyotu@businessagent.email\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"12392664471\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"YOU HaVe BeEn HacKEd, \\r\\nIMPORTANT:  HeLlo, \\r\\nThe last time you visited a ?orn website, \\r\\nyou downloaded and installed my v?rus Encrypted in ads. \\r\\nMy program has turned on your cam and recorded the act \\r\\nof your ?asturbat?on.. \\r\\nI also have all your email contact l?sts \\r\\nand a list of your friends on Facebook as a result of the encryption. \\r\\nI have the - Admin.mp4 - with you jerk?ng \\r\\noff, as well as a file with all your contacts \\r\\non my computer. \\r\\nYou are very ?erverted! \\r\\nIf you want me to delete both files and scale through this, \\r\\nyou must send me a Bitcoin payment. \\r\\nI give you 72 hours only to send the funds. \\r\\nIf you don\\\\\'t know how to pay with Bitcoin, \\r\\nvisit Google and search - how to buy bitcoin\\/ you can buy from http:\\/\\/localbitcoins.com \\r\\n \\r\\nSend 1500 USD (0.268216 BTC) \\r\\nto this Bitcoin address: \\r\\n \\r\\n1DhpyWmvQ1VgtSYoY1ZgpmQ3BS28G31WvT \\r\\n(copy and paste) \\r\\n \\r\\n1 BTC = 5,588 USD right now, so send exactly 0.268216BTC \\r\\nto the address above. \\r\\nDo not try to cheat me! \\r\\nAs soon as you open this Email I will know you opened it. \\r\\nI am tracking all actions on your device.. \\r\\n \\r\\nThis Bitcoin address is linked to you only, \\r\\nso I will know when you send the correct amount. \\r\\nWhen you pay in full, I will remove both files and deactivate \\r\\nmy program. \\r\\nIf you choose to not send the bitcoin... \\r\\nI will send your ?asturbat?on v?deo to \\r\\nALL YOUR FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES from your\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-24 20:40:25'),
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(218, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rita\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Mehta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ritakmehta59@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9820229036\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We are a distributor for PMS offerings and mutual funds based out of Andheri. Currently we have an AUM of Rs 20 crs and we distribute PMS products of Motilal Oswal, Alchemy and ASK Investment Managers. We are also a channel partner of Motilal Oswal and distribute products of almost all mutual funds.\\r\\n\\r\\nWe would like to empanel for distributing your PMS offering as well. Do get back to us on 9820229036.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-25 11:04:47'),
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(220, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Mritunjoy\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Hore\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mritunjoy_hore@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"07440084994\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello,\\r\\nI was reading the book \\\\\'Coffee Can Investing\\\\\' & there is one point which did not look good to me.\\r\\n\\r\\nGruh Finance made it way in CCP-2017. However, when I looked at the loan disbursement, it didn\\\\\'t meet 15% loan growth for the past 10 years although having 15% RoE throughout past 10 years. It would be great if you could explain.\\r\\n\\r\\nFinancial Highlights 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08\\r\\nLoan Disbursements 4,125 3,857 3,121 2,577 2,174 1,487 1,211 780 655 632\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks,\\r\\nMritunjoy\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-04-26 11:00:21');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 500$ \\r\\nCompanies of Russia 3012045 - 300$ \\r\\nUkraine 605745 of domain names - 100$ \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus RF are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\nNew domains of the Russia, registered 24-48 hours ago (A cycle of 15 mailings during the month) - 250$ \\r\\n \\r\\nDatabases: \\r\\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \\r\\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\\\\\'s service at the request. \\r\\n \\r\\nP\\/S \\r\\nPls., do not respond to this offer from your mailbox, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \\r\\nUse the contact form from the site http:\\/\\/xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nPRICE LIST: \\r\\n \\r\\nTest mailing: $20 \\u2013 10000 contact forms websites \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites \\u2013 $1100 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll EU 28 countries there are 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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(279, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Anirudha \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhandari\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"aniruddh.bhandari@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"7350803803\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We as a group are looking for PMS solutions. Please arrange for a call or a meeting with your representative. Thanks\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-17 06:17:06'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(282, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Thavaseelan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"K\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"thava1862@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9862884498\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Would like to know more about the PMS Product\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-19 17:21:16'),
(283, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"AurelioBuh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"AurelioBuh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"micgyhaelHok@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"135565842\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\" Hi nicesacrifice \\r\\n Are you in?  \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/drive.google.com\\/file\\/d\\/1tiK9iCXTGydGn-XnK4T2VbmUcHSGDy0y\\/preview\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-19 19:52:13'),
(284, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vineet\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sachdeva\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sachdeva.vineet@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9867635659\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Please contact me for PMS. Thanks\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-20 05:56:49'),
(285, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Mukesh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mukesh@robocapital.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9967576010\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We are boutique wealth advisory company. We would like to get ourselves empanel with you to distribute your PMS product.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-20 06:04:52'),
(286, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Anil\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sama\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"samaanil@icloud.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"5153056276\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi, I recently moved to US. My wife will be joining me in a month. We would like to know more about Marcellus offerings. \\r\\nThank you.\\r\\nAnil \\r\\n+1 515 305 6276\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-20 06:47:01'),
(287, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Cyrus \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Patel \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"Cyrus@csppatel.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9821029787\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am a veteran investor with several multibaggers under my belt. I would like however to invest a part of my portfolio with you please let me know when we can arrange to meet. I already have corresponded with Saurabh and I am on his email list. Regards Cyrus Patel \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-20 13:51:24'),
(288, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Suneet\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sood\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"suneets@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9643805949\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Pls contact for investment to PMS - Consistent Compounders \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-21 06:46:58'),
(289, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Uneesh \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Patel\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"uneesh.patel@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9537327330\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-21 09:13:47'),
(290, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Nikhil\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Otavanekar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nikhilotavanekar@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8336947262\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I would like to know more about PMS by Marcellus. Kindly reach out to me at the co-ordinates shared above.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-21 18:40:48'),
(291, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"SamuelKedge\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SamuelKedge\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"svetlanacol0sova@yandex.ua\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"186778236\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Let your bitcoins brings you +10% per 2 days. \\r\\nGet paid automatically and earn again! \\r\\n \\r\\nTry  http:\\/\\/dc-btc.site \\r\\none click registration and getting asset \\r\\n \\r\\nPowered by Mutual assistance Algorithm and Blockchain. \\r\\nWarranty!\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-05-22 01:42:36'),
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(413, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ankit\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Madan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ankit.madan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9513613393\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I\\\\\'d like to know more about your offerings, planning for a PMS portfolio and I am new to this space. I\\\\\'d like to know about liquidity, costs and returns to expect.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-06-25 12:19:17');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(420, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Nickven\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Nickven\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pay.onlinewww@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"346658167\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, \\r\\n \\r\\nWe (https:\\/\\/payop.com) are payment aggregator of 150+ payment methods like PaySafeCard, Skrill, Ideal, Klarna, SEPA, Sofort, QiWi, Poli, Boleto, Oxxo, SafetyPay, FPX, UnionPay, Alipay and others, including European\\/CIS card acquiring. \\r\\n \\r\\nPlease, advise whom I can contact in your company responsible for connecting new payment methods or expanding to new regions to discuss possible cooperation. \\r\\n \\r\\nKind regards, \\r\\nNick Koval \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/www.payop.com \\r\\nEmail: sales@payoplp.com\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-06-26 16:34:23'),
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(424, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Khoa\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ho-Le\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kenhole@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+61434024713\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I live in Australia.  How can I make an investment with you?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-06-28 00:19:36'),
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(553, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Abdul Khadeer\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Khaleefa\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"akhaleefa@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"900 000 5771\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested to invest 10 lakhs for a period which makes it 100 crores whatever time it takes preferably 30 years for my three children for their retirement. They are between 24 to 30 years of age. Need your guidance to achieve this objective. Thanks and regards.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-27 13:45:07'),
(554, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vikas\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Malhotra\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vikasmalhotra6@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9639311656\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I want to take your services for building equity portfolio.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-28 06:06:58');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(557, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Krishna\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"makhariya\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"wealth.management@iventures.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"7013199688\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Dear Team Marcellus,\\r\\nGreetings\\r\\n\\r\\nWe are a private wealth management firm based out of Gurgoan, managing relationships across SME\\\\\'s and Families.\\r\\n\\r\\nAs a part of our AIF offering, we would like to consider your product and would like to learn about it for empanelment.\\r\\n\\r\\nWe request you to kindly get back on the same.\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks & Regards\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-29 04:52:47'),
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(560, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"David\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Warner\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"david.warner@ubs.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"0207 567 3637\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, \\r\\n\\r\\nI am contacting you as one of our clients wants to invest into one of your funds however, before we can look to set the investment up on our platform, I need to confirm that there is no trail commission (Retrocession) paid back to UBS.\\r\\n\\r\\nTherefore, please can you confirm if this is the case on the below ISINs:\\r\\n\\r\\nMU0403S00362\\r\\nMU0403S00370\\r\\n\\r\\nI look forward to hearing from you soon.\\r\\n\\r\\nBest\\r\\nDavid\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-29 08:34:41'),
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(562, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"lingamneni\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"ramesh babu\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"lramesh.babu@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8008166441\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am looking to invest in PMS. Please let me know the details of consistent compounders\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-29 10:34:31'),
(563, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Kartyk\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Srinivas\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kartyk@anuvawealth.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9845531680\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\n\\r\\nCan I have more details about your PMS offerings and if you can share your contact details? \\r\\n\\r\\nThanks & Regards\\r\\nKartyk \\r\\nCo-founder Anuva Wealth Advisors LLP \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-07-29 11:10:25'),
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(606, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Anil\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kumar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anilkumar.m@med.ge.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9845542328\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am looking for investments in equity for long term 3 to 5 years. I am exploring the option of availing services in this regard.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-04 07:47:26'),
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(609, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"AMIT\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"KUMAR\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"KUMARAM73@HOTMAIL.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9899301039\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am looking to invest in a PMS. I am based in Gurgaon and can be reached at 9899301039. Please get someone to send me a message on my email or on my number (please avoid calling directly) and I will set up time to meet.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-04 12:38:00'),
(610, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"SREEDHAR REDDY\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"INDLA\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"isreedharreddy@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9849863349\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am Distributor of Financial Products like Mutual Funds, PMS and Insurance . I gone through the News letters and understand your investment philosophy.I would like to offer your product to my clients. Can you please share the revenue sharing details. Thanks in advance.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-04 17:25:18'),
(611, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"C Ratna\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"M\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ratna_rvr2007@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"08249410145\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Can the 25 lakh min. requirement can be shared by 3 family members?I stay in other state so the entire process can be done online? and finally the fee which is performance based is based on virtual gains at the end of each FY?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-05 04:39:11'),
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(615, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Karan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Pradhan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"getdigital0422@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+61414907577\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, I am an NRI based in Australia. After watching  several of Saurabh Mukherji\\\\\'s videos on youtube I would like to know that if I was to invest Rs 1 crore with Marcellus for 10 years then can I expect a  return of 10 crores at the end of the 10 year period?\\r\\n\\r\\nThank you. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-06 00:13:13'),
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(618, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Siddharth\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rao\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"siddharthrao1985@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09701733166\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-06 16:00:52'),
(619, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanjeev\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vadeyar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"svadeyar61@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9890755417\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I would like to know more in details about your PMS especially how many different PMS\\u2019s you have, do you have tailor made portfolios for each and charges. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-06 19:04:22'),
(620, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"RonaldGenue\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"RonaldGenueCJ\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"lathadivya75@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"83668676558\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Welcome to Brandshelpline \\u2013 A site dedicated to becoming the leading marketing resource on the web. \\r\\n \\r\\nMy name is Pranuthi Chandra and i am a marketing professional with a zeal for learning and getting better in my trade day by day. As Philip Kotler said \\u201cMarketing takes days to learn, But a lifetime to become a master\\u201d. With the aim of satisying my readers, my objective is to become an Expert in the field of marketing and make Brands HelpLine the best and most resourceful marketing portal on the web. \\r\\n \\r\\nIn this fast paced life, this blog of mine is an effort to stay in touch with the world of marketing. Nothing better than to read a topic you like and write it in your own words. Believe me!! The things you write, is the stuff that will stick to your mind. Hence i make sure i update my readers with daily tutorial in marketing and the latest marketing news. \\r\\n \\r\\nYou can follow our daily updates by subscribing to our RSS feed or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. The talented ones can also submit an article as Guest Authors and lend me a hand.  Do stay in touch and feel free to contact me or write to me anytime. \\r\\n \\r\\nP.S \\u2013 I would love it if you can contribute to Brandshelpline.com \\r\\n \\r\\nPranuthi Chandra\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-06 21:28:46'),
(621, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"MarioLah\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"MarioLahVR\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"raphaeRedrago@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"82248471992\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Ciao!  marcellus.in \\r\\n \\r\\nWe suggesting \\r\\n \\r\\nSending your commercial offer through the feedback form which can be found on the sites in the contact section. Feedback forms are filled in by our software and the captcha is solved. The profit of this method is that messages sent through feedback forms are whitelisted. This method increases the chances that your message will be open. \\r\\n \\r\\nOur database contains more than 25 million sites around the world to which we can send your message. \\r\\n \\r\\nThe cost of one million messages 49 USD \\r\\n \\r\\nFREE TEST mailing of 50,000 messages to any country of your choice. \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nThis message is automatically generated to use our contacts for communication. \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nContact us. \\r\\nTelegram - @FeedbackFormEU \\r\\nSkype  FeedbackForm2019 \\r\\nEmail - FeedbackForm@make-success.com \\r\\nWhatsApp - +44 7598 509161\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-06 23:23:32'),
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(624, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"HarryGroog\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"HarryGroogGS\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"edwardm@lioncourtcrypto.net\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"83387831663\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We buy all crypto currencies at good rate, with reasonable commission between sellers and the mandates. \\r\\n \\r\\nContact us with the informations below if you are or have a potential seller. \\r\\n \\r\\nTel: +353 1 4378345 \\r\\nFax: +353 1 6865354 \\r\\nEmail: edwardm@lioncourtcrypto.com \\r\\n \\r\\nThank you, \\r\\nCrypto currencies Purchase Department, \\r\\nEdward Molina.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-07 10:24:44'),
(625, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanchit\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Garg\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sanchitgarg5@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9584942995\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi\\r\\nIs there any way smaller retail investors can get associated with you? Currently I cannot commit 25L but was quite interested in Marcellus\\\\\'s advisory services. \\r\\n\\r\\nThanks\\r\\nSanchit\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-08-07 10:25:42');
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(789, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Irma\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Watt\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"irma@interactivewise.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"(08) 9099 4076\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Accelerate Your Growth - 30 Days at No Cost\\r\\n\\r\\nHi,\\r\\n\\r\\nMy name is Irma and I am the founder at BIGLEP. We work with organizations like Getresponse to accelerate small businesses growth through offering email marketing tools.\\r\\n\\r\\nPowerfully-simple features let you concentrate on your business \\u2014 not marketing technology: \\r\\ndrag and drop email creation, pre-built templates, automations, powerful analytics.\\r\\n\\r\\nInterested? Get 15mins on your calendar to explore: https:\\/\\/www.biglep.com\\/growth\\r\\n\\r\\nCheers,\\r\\nIrma\\r\\n\\r\\nTo unsubscribe: reply \\\\\\\"no\\\\\\\"\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-02 15:50:06'),
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(930, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Pratik\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dodhia\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pratik@alphabet-investment.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9820108890\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Looking forward to partner with you guys. We specialize in HNI & NRI clients.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-14 12:12:23'),
(931, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Dheeraj \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Mukherjee \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"qutbond@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9818377559\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Call me. Based in gurgaon. Want to invest in coffee can style.  \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-14 15:07:18'),
(932, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Venkatesh \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ganapathy \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"g_venkatesh2003@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+966508175531\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I would like to know about your products and services. Please respond by mail. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-14 16:24:13');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(936, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vishal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bansal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bansalvishal@outlook.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9051457576\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I wish to invest in the consistent compounders pms. My ticket size is about 25 to 30 lakhs \\r\\nPlease get in touch and advise as to how we can proceed forward\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks\\r\\nVishal Bansal\\r\\nKolkata\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 04:51:51'),
(937, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Prabhakaran\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"OM\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prabhuom@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9819673334\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Want know more\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 07:50:29'),
(938, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"gurvinder\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jollyjodhaka@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9803132429\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"sir, I would like to known more about pms services. \\r\\nplease let me know how it works. thanks\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 09:02:00'),
(939, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanjay\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"K\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sanjaykumardd@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+6591867950\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Will like to invest. Am Singapore based. Please contact. Thanks. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 15:08:30'),
(940, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rejin\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rajan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rejinrajan17@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+971551640254\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 15:21:40'),
(941, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"SUNIL\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"HARIDAS\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sunil.haridas58@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09967800456\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in growing wealth either by PMS or otherwise\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 17:58:48'),
(942, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Swathi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kolluru \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kolluru.investments@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9765494935\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am interested in your pms portfolio can you reach out to me with some details on your past\\/ target performance for the future. \\r\\n\\r\\nContact via email only please\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 18:13:28'),
(943, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Swathi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kolluru \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kolluru.investments@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9765494935\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am interested in your pms portfolio can you reach out to me with some details on your past\\/ target performance for the future. \\r\\n\\r\\nContact via email only please\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 18:13:29'),
(944, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhishek\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Chauhan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"abhishekchauhan03@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+1-2069153055\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am looking at investing some amount in your PMS. My mother (stays in India) will own the account. I have a few questions and would like to have a discussion with someone from Marcellus about them. Please drop me a note with a time that can work. I stay in Seattle, so somewhere between 7AM-10AM IST would work for me.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 19:12:30'),
(945, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Mahesh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Manelkar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"maheshmanelkar@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09243300555\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-15 21:31:19'),
(946, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Saubhik \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ghosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saubhik.nifty@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8777859083\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am interested in your PMS as a distributor.\\r\\nI stay in ballygunge.\\r\\nI write options and a crude trader as well.\\r\\n8777859083\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 02:33:25'),
(947, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Pradeep\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Prakash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pradeepprakash2001@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09810009311\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in investing with your fund\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 03:28:21'),
(948, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ramrao\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Patil\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ramrao.patil@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\n\\r\\nCould you please share following details?\\r\\n\\r\\n1. What is minimum investment required to apply for PMS service?\\r\\n2. Could you please publish your results for last one year?\\r\\n3. What is avg holding period for your stocks and how many customers?\\r\\n\\r\\nThank you,\\r\\nRamrao Patil\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 05:30:21'),
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(952, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"ARJUN\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SANTHANAM\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"asanta@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+919841010018\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in your PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 06:56:26'),
(953, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"P K \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bansal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pasupaty123@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+919810031161\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Our firm Pasupaty Finvest LLP wants to invest in equity. We are looking for good PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 07:28:27'),
(954, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Amitabh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amsingh1001@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9873958517\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Would like to find out more about your PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 08:00:35'),
(955, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Surinder\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"surinder.sgh9@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9872049811\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\n\\r\\nI have checked your PMS fee structure options. Can you send me the details with example to get more clear idea about fees structure?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-16 10:02:10'),
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(1008, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"1\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"1\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"noreply@domainboardserver.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"954-320-4679\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Disclaimer statement: We are not legally liable for any losses or damages that you may incur due to the expiration of marcellus.in. Such losses may include but are not limited to: financial loss, deleted data, downgrade of search rankings, missed customers, undelivered email and any other technical or business damages that you may incur. For more information please refer section 14.a.1.e of our Terms of Service. \\n\\n This is your final renewal notification for marcellus.in: \\n\\n https:\\/\\/domainboardserver.com\\/?n=marcellus.in&r=a \\n\\n If marcellus.in is allowed to expire, the listing will be automatically deleted from our servers within 3 business days. Upon expiration, we reserve the right to offer your website listing to competitors or interested parties in the same business category and location (state\\/city) after 3 business days on an auction-bidding basis. \\n\\n This is the final renewal notice that we are required to send out in regards to the expiration of marcellus.in \\n\\n Secure Online Payment: \\n\\n https:\\/\\/domainboardserver.com\\/?n=marcellus.in&r=a \\n\\n All services will be restored automatically on marcellus.in if payment is received in full on time before expiration. We thank you for your attention and business.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-09-20 02:47:47'),
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(1267, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vivek Agarwal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vivekvedika@hotmail.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9823078088\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-02 12:51:41'),
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(1276, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurabh Muley\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"muleysv@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9765565064\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-02 18:31:57'),
(1277, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Pranav D Saraiya\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pranavsaraiya@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9930549934\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-02 18:45:06'),
(1278, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ndumiso \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ndumisomthokozisi6@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"0609513996\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-02 19:54:04'),
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(1280, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Chanel\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Oxenham\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"chanel.oxenham@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"021 863 72 94\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in advertising that charges less than $49 monthly and sends hundreds of people who are ready to buy directly to your website? Please send me a reply here: mia4675whi@gmail.com to get more info.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-02 22:49:37'),
(1281, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Raj Shah\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"raj.s16@bkmiba.edu.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9925911296\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 02:02:44'),
(1282, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rahul Jain\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rahul@lionrock.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"83009121\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 02:34:21'),
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(1284, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"P S V SUNDRAVADIVEL\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"psvsv71966@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7010549119\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:01:04'),
(1285, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jai GosalIa\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jaigosalia@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9339869891\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:06:33'),
(1286, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ravi Gupta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"fadooinvestor@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8452007785\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:13:20');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(1287, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bala Natarajan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bala.natrajan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09663127247\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:25:22'),
(1288, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Shrinivas Betageri\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shrinivassap@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9741601584\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:26:26'),
(1289, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"nihal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nihal16@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9898989898\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 03:49:22'),
(1290, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Chintan Thattey\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"chintan.thattey@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9867328153\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 04:15:39'),
(1291, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanjeev Goel\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sanjeev.goel1067@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9704404035\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 04:18:39'),
(1292, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhavin Solanki\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"solanki.bhavin121@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9712600033\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 04:28:38'),
(1293, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"HK\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"khimanhn@equate.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8758943363\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 04:57:10'),
(1294, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"MikeErora\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"MikeEroraMB\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"noreplyHak@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"87985746966\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"When you order 1000 backlinks with this service you get 1000 unique domains, Only receive 1 backlinks from each domain. All domains come with DA above 15-20 and with actual page high PA values. Simple yet very effective service to improve your linkbase and SEO metrics. \\r\\n \\r\\nOrder this great service from here today: \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/monkeydigital.co\\/product\\/unique-domains-backlinks\\/ \\r\\n \\r\\nMultiple offers available \\r\\n \\r\\nthanks and regards \\r\\nMike \\r\\nmonkeydigital.co@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 05:24:38'),
(1295, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vinod Saini\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vinod2955@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9822980103\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 05:27:54'),
(1296, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Madanagopal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ramu\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"madhanagopalr@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9840380746\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 05:55:36'),
(1297, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Madanagopal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ramu\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"madhanagopalr@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9840380746\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 05:56:08'),
(1298, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"satya v v chilukuri\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"drchvv@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8919278731\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 06:11:38'),
(1299, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"ASHIM\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SRIVASTAVA\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashim.srivastava@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8008001054\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in the PMS offer - Consistent Compounder. Had attended Saurabh\\\\\'s event in Hyderabad and was mighty impressed. Please call me at 91-8008001054\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 06:18:52'),
(1300, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sandeep\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sandeeprai.rai5@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7065670707\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 06:40:39'),
(1301, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vinay T M\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vintm2295@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9886263680\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 06:42:12'),
(1302, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Tushar Sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"tushar.sharma@avendus.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9888222345\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-03 06:43:45'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(1682, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dinesh Goel\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"dineshgoel321@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845893787\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 10:07:45'),
(1683, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jitendra mehta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jitendramdhta70@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9841722975\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 10:10:39'),
(1684, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jitendra mehta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jitendramdhta70@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9841722975\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 10:10:40'),
(1685, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Purushottam \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"purushotham8687@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8142743048\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 10:17:16'),
(1686, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"MANAN SHAH\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"MANAN1_2000@YAHOO.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9909012681\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 10:28:25'),
(1687, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Roshan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"roshan_nair92@ymail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9930681956\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 11:34:19');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(1688, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sameer\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bansal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sameerbansal01@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9811807287\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, I would like to discuss subscribing to the PMS service. Would be great if someone can call me regarding this.\\r\\n\\r\\nThank You\\r\\nSameer\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 11:49:21'),
(1689, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Brahmavar Sathyendra Pai\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sathyendra.pai@dell.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09972077119\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 11:54:50'),
(1690, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kapil Motiani\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kapilmania03@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9923191900\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 12:42:56'),
(1691, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jaya\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jayaravindran07@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9502594330\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 13:09:49'),
(1692, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Pratyush Chaubey\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"chaubey.pratyush@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8130473968\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 13:13:48'),
(1693, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"V Karthikeyan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"veekarthi@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7708741111\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 13:39:53'),
(1694, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Anugrah\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"aggarwal.anugrah@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9004055138\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 14:16:33'),
(1695, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Atul Prakash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"atul.prakash@godrejinds.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"25194370\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 14:22:59'),
(1696, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Atul Prakash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"atul.prakash@godrejinds.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"25194370\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 14:23:03'),
(1697, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Atul Prakash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"atul.prakash@godrejinds.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"25194370\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 14:23:07'),
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(1699, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Brijesh Dheman\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"brijesh@canduraadvisors.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9891007517\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 14:53:37'),
(1700, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sontosh Kumar Bothra\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"santoshkbothra@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8777525799\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 15:02:28'),
(1701, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Leo DSouza\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"dsouzaleo93@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"0504735267\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 15:21:11'),
(1702, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Harsha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"harshu0618@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8897430980\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 15:43:57'),
(1703, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Piyush Goyal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"piyush2goyal@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9833263960\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 16:06:17'),
(1704, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Anshul Bansal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anshul.me@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9004965545\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 17:12:59'),
(1705, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sathishkumar Ravi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sathishanbu@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9943477892\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 17:13:55'),
(1706, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"DR VENKATESHAN\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"drvenk.mg@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845286466\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 18:24:38'),
(1707, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ara sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arasharma21@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8055424666\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 18:37:54'),
(1708, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ara sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arasharma21@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8055424666\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 18:37:54'),
(1709, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Davidllelalm\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"DavidllelalmQP\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amucioabogadoslinfo@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"88763539696\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Dearest in mind, \\r\\n \\r\\nI would like to introduce myself for the first time. My name is Barrister David Gomez Gonzalez, the personal lawyer to my late client. \\r\\nWho worked as a private businessman in the international field. In 2012, my client succumbed to an unfortunate car accident. My client was single and childless. \\r\\nHe left a fortune worth $12,500,000.00 Dollars in a bank in Spain. The bank sent me message that I have to introduce a beneficiary or the money in their bank will be confiscate. My purpose of contacting you is to make you the Next of Kin. \\r\\nMy late client left no will, I as his personal lawyer, was commissioned by the Spanish Bank to search for relatives to whom the money left behind could be paid to. I have been looking for his relatives for the past 3 months continuously without success. Now I explain why I need your support, I have decided to make a citizen of the same country with my late client the Next of Kin. \\r\\n \\r\\nI hereby ask you if you will give me your consent to present you to the Spanish Bank as the next of kin to my deceased client. \\r\\nI would like to point out that you will receive 45% of the share of this money, 45% then I would be entitled to, 10% percent will be donated to charitable organizations. \\r\\n \\r\\nIf you are interested, please contact me at my private contact details by Tel: 0034-604-284-281, Fax: 0034-911-881-353, Email: amucioabogados@infocaixa.info \\r\\n \\r\\nI am waiting for your answer \\r\\n \\r\\nBest regards, \\r\\n \\r\\nLawyer: - David Gomez Gonzalez\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-08 18:51:00'),
(1710, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"DR VENKATESHAN\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"drvenk.mg@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845286466\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-09 00:17:43'),
(1711, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Pedro Molina\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Pedro Molina\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pedrom@uicinsuk.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"88111523268\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Dear Sir, \\r\\nAm contacting you to partner with me to secure the life insurance of my late client, to avoid it being confiscated. For more information, please contact me on + 447452275874 or pedrom@uicinuk.com \\r\\nRegards \\r\\nPedro Molina\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-09 01:49:34'),
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(1716, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jetha Punjabi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jethapunjabi@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820041759\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-09 05:03:40'),
(1717, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurabh Vashist\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"svashist@adventinternational.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9967560734\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-09 05:08:32'),
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(1719, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kushal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kushal.jawlia@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9599827311\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-09 06:10:45'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(1960, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ajay Kumar nath\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ajayaseb@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9435007473\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"As an individual can I make investment through you. If so what is the process.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 11:37:52'),
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(1962, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saikat Roy\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saikat.roy.21@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820998779\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 12:54:01'),
(1963, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurabh Shukla\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"metamorphoseprojects@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9125254111\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"More information.\\r\\nWe are metamorphose projects LLP, a family office setup.\\r\\n\\r\\nLike to know more information.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 14:08:29'),
(1964, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"9 Financial Advisor Services LLP\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"9FinancialServices@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9823288800\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Empanellment for PMS business\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 14:48:49'),
(1965, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ritesh Khanna \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"khanna.ritesh@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9818011501\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 15:59:27'),
(1966, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurrabh S Kadam\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saurabhskadam2002@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7972207208\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 16:46:45'),
(1967, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Akash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"akashhshah25@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9925123445\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 17:27:52'),
(1968, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Narendra Kale\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"narendra.babu2006@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09844563849\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 18:10:14');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(1969, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rafaeldof\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"dcbtcsystem@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"87325118854\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Short-term investments in a global international project based on the blockchain platform! \\r\\nThe project is fully automated and decentralized! \\r\\n \\r\\nAll bitcoins are stored on the accounts (bitcoin wallets) of the participants themselves and are transferred to each other using the Bitcoin cryptocurrency. \\r\\n \\r\\n+10% in 2 days! \\r\\n+1500% per month \\r\\n \\r\\n3 levels of referral bonuses. \\r\\n \\r\\n5% \\r\\n3% \\r\\n1% \\r\\n \\r\\nReferral bonuses are paid the next day! \\r\\nOfficial site:  https:\\/\\/www.crypto-mmm.site \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nBlockchain project based on mathematical algorithms of the Mavrodi brothers.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-18 21:55:45'),
(1970, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"prakash\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prakash.v@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9443660911\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 01:15:08'),
(1971, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Nimai Chandra Ghosh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"d.ghosh7@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9903879050\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi, Im travelling so can email only. I would like to invest in CCP PMS. How do I go about it. \\r\\nRegards,\\r\\nNC Ghosh \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 04:01:42'),
(1972, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vishal Krishan Adya \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vishalkrishanadya@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9876608002\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Would like to understand and invest \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:07:57'),
(1973, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"prashant sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prashant.111186@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9910072014\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:08:58'),
(1974, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"BEGUR DINAKAR\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"begurdinakar@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"00971505106194\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am interested to invest in your funds.\\r\\ni am nri. \\r\\npl let me know paperwork required.\\r\\ni have pan , KYC  etc and already investing in mutual funds.\\r\\nthanks \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:20:41'),
(1975, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"BEGUR DINAKAR\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"begurdinakar@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"00971505106194\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"dear Sir\\r\\nI am NRI and interested in your funds.\\r\\npl let me know the paper work required.\\r\\nthanks\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:22:44'),
(1976, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"HRIDESH RAJ\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"hridesh99raj@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"07506028967\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:28:53'),
(1977, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vinod kumar bisht\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vinodbisht25@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09717297772\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 06:36:58'),
(1978, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Deepak\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"phew1inin@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"0000000000\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 07:05:06'),
(1979, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Gururaja Rao\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gururajarao1@icloud.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9080654174\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Equity investment. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 07:08:46'),
(1980, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Gururaja Rao\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gururajarao1@icloud.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9080654174\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Equity investment. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 07:08:47'),
(1981, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Gururaja Rao\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gururajarao1@icloud.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9080654174\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 07:09:28'),
(1982, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"sreedhar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"masreedhar.blr@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9901625390\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 07:16:17'),
(1983, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurabh Gupta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saurabh.gupta@dixoninfo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9818002624\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 08:06:20'),
(1984, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"SREEKUMAR N\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sreekn@live.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09900502740\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\nWant to invest in your consistent compounder PMS.Please let me  know the formalities.\\r\\nRegards\\r\\nSree\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 08:46:36'),
(1985, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Technobari.com\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"technobarishose@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"84764259852\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 09:39:02'),
(1986, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Subramaniam Iyer\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"subramaniam.iyer1986@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+971-521566199\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, I am an NRI & have an existing equity portfolio which I can no longer devote time to.  Am looking for someone with excellent credentials to manage & compound my savings\\/wealth in a sustainable manner.  My question to you is can I as an NRI look at your existing PMS product? I would like to understand the product features etc.?  I will be flying down to Mumbai before the end of this year, perhaps we can meet up in person to discuss your offering?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 10:45:33'),
(1987, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Amareswar Reddy Polimera\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amareswar.polimera@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8482200725\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 11:47:45'),
(1988, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Prosenjit Konar\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prosenjitkonar@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"6291563240\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 11:48:28'),
(1989, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"mohammad asif\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mdasif.21@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"00966565599800\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"i am interested\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 12:58:34'),
(1990, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Monal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"elitemonal@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9870874343\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:01:16'),
(1991, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ashok Gulati\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokgulati_roi@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"00353877611550\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Dear Sir\\r\\nI have written you before as well that I am holding some shares that have a total current value of about INR 25 lacs\\r\\nMajor portion of my portfolio is \\r\\nMCX 1150 shares\\r\\nCoal India 1000 shares\\r\\nOther stocks are small-caps and mid-caps\\r\\nI want you to manage my portfolio\\r\\nI have a plan to add about 4\\/5 lacs a year for next 5 years instead of withdrawing any amount \\r\\nI had written you before as well but didn\'t get any reply from you\\r\\nCould you please revert back if you can manage my portfolio and your conditions \\r\\nIf you are not interested please let me know I should look for some other alternative\\r\\nI am writing this again thinking that you might have not received my previous enquiry\\r\\nPlease do reply interested or not interested\\r\\nThanks\\r\\nAshok\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:03:05'),
(1992, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ashokan Arunachalam \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokanarunachalam@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9841733373\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:03:30'),
(1993, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Shadab\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shadab0571@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"33910249\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:04:19'),
(1994, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Shadab\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shadab0571@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"33910249\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:04:20'),
(1995, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kulathendral\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kulathendral27@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9003796845\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-19 13:11:41'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(2080, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Plan murthy\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"murthypulijala@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9885402334\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-20 04:46:51'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(2440, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Pramodh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pramodhm@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+6598321758\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,I am a non resident Indian and was keen to participate in PMS offerings.However given that I have an existing PIS account in my name,wouldnt be add any new trading account as part of PMS.Do you have an advisory offer where I can invest in the portfolio as per advise from your team but execute the trades in my existing trading\\/demat accounts?I can adhere to the same fee structure as the PMS fee structure.Would be keen to know if such an option is available.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-31 13:50:04');
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(2443, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Debangshu Sarkar\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"debangshu@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9967367331\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Contact for PMS investment\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-10-31 15:59:30'),
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(2535, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"gursheetal singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gursheetal.singh@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09908459555\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-02 04:55:44'),
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(2537, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Amitabh Lara\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amitabhlara@rathi.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9819711081\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-02 04:58:02'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(2546, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Mahesh pillai \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"maheshpillai@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+971565051855\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello Marcellus Team,\\r\\n\\r\\nI\\u2019m currently a NRI based in Dubai managing investments directly via Icici direct for both equity and mutual funds. ( lumpsum & sips). I\\u2019ve been thinking of shifting to a PMS model for quiet sometime. I would like to know more about your offering directly from you and the discuss the next steps.\\r\\n\\r\\nRegards,\\r\\n\\r\\nMahesh \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-02 06:29:48'),
(2547, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Aakash Manghani \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"aakash.manghani@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820253462\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-02 06:38:49'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(2729, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Harshad\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"harshadsmail@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9619147435\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-06 23:40:40'),
(2730, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Manish\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"manish.jain@bajajfinserv.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9673808780\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 00:25:31'),
(2731, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rajat K Bose\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rajatkbose@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09830054167\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 00:26:13'),
(2732, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ankit bansal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bansalankit@icai.org\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9214337872\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Want to start PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 00:38:33'),
(2733, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Mahesh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"maheshgogula1998@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9133582647\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 00:50:12'),
(2734, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Basker Ramachandran\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rbasker@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09945602485\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 00:52:19'),
(2735, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"PARTHAPRATIM Bhattacharya \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pratim2112@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9674790040\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:07:51'),
(2736, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Nitin Gupta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nitin.gupta79@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+918618013396\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:09:09');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(2737, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhishek Sahu\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"abhisheksahu.181@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8450941989\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:17:17'),
(2738, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Madhav Samant\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"madh304@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9545727700\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:35:14'),
(2739, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Harpal Singh Kohli\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"harpalsinghkohli490@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9936799350\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:38:51'),
(2740, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Shivam Bhatia\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shivam17july@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09643104859\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:41:16'),
(2741, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Siddharth M\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"msiddhu08@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"99999999999\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:42:06'),
(2742, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Anurag\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anuragtripathi@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"006591354204\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:54:56'),
(2743, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Anurag\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anuragtripathi@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"006591354204\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:54:57'),
(2744, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Manu Rishi Guptha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mrg45@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"07507012345\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 01:54:57'),
(2745, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Praneet Mehrotra\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"praneetmehrotra@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+65 91791410\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:05:21'),
(2746, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Moti\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mla1515july@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7769848605\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:13:35'),
(2747, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"naveen kumar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"naveen70ar@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"07024264598\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:25:17'),
(2748, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Kingshuk Ghosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ghoshk410@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7259186276\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:25:29'),
(2749, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vivek Sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"viveks2sharma@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09810464411\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:28:08'),
(2750, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhimanyu Roy\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"royabhimanyu@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09810455670\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:32:56'),
(2751, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"JITENDRA RAISINGHANIA\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jitendra.raisinghania@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9810990862\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:41:14'),
(2752, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"JITENDRA RAISINGHANIA\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jitendra.raisinghania@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9810990862\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:41:15'),
(2753, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Gyanendra Awasthi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gyan1791@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09336052159\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 02:41:50'),
(2754, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Harsh \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"harsh.pathak@icicisecurities.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820976480\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:00:28'),
(2755, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Nayan Parekh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nayanjparekh@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09820131886\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:04:20'),
(2756, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rishi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rishi.suchdeo@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9717233398\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:07:55'),
(2757, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rishi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rishi.suchdeo@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9717233398\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:07:55'),
(2758, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rishi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rishi.suchdeo@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9717233398\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:07:57'),
(2759, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Haresh \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"baraiyaharesh@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9328905308\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:27:12'),
(2760, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vineet Thodge\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vineetthodge@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+85260738300\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:30:28'),
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(2762, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sha navas\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mohamed.navas1@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9967579891\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:39:43'),
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(2765, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sid\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"satishsiddu42@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9133943344\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 03:55:17'),
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(2767, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Chintan Patel\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"chin2127@gmail.copm\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+919898545467\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 04:10:05'),
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(2769, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"vishal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vishal.shah@godigit.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9090909090\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-07 04:12:27'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(3102, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sadanand patil\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anandpatil1011@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9930044885\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Wants to have your pms services\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-10 03:48:03'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(3448, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vivek Bansal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vivekbansal1983@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9899139999\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello, i want to know more about marcellus pms & interested to invest\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 08:02:33'),
(3449, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ketan Doshi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokeng.ketan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9824326002\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Tell me about your pms , ticket size n working method \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 09:53:44'),
(3450, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Dr. Chetan Khadke\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"chetan_khadke@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"7795646046\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I\'m a young Radiologist by profession and I\'m looking for a compony for long term investment with similar philosophy as yours.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 10:02:03'),
(3451, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dilip Swadi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"DilipSwadi@Wilco.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9869000817\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 10:55:03'),
(3452, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sreekumar \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sreekumar.kappil@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"0096892888342\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Please let me know how do I start the PMS with your company \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 12:39:29'),
(3453, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Prashant\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pbansal@askwealthadvisors.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9004313898\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 13:07:38'),
(3454, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sayak Rana\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sayak.rana@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8971311777\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 14:07:05'),
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(3456, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Nandhini \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vedaa.2129@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7710010827\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 15:37:10'),
(3457, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Tamanna \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"tamanna96.verma@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9999598091\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 17:23:44'),
(3458, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Amit Pawar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amit.pawar.n@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+18043341769\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 17:58:43'),
(3459, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rajesh Shetty\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rajeshshettyb@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09899182000\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-18 18:28:06'),
(3460, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"sharan choithramani\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"schoithramani@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09004582220\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 00:50:53');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(3463, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Prateek Maheshwari\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prateek1592@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"5103659513\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 04:54:20'),
(3464, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Shaik Mohammed Ismail\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shaiki4379@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9871435786\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 05:20:43'),
(3465, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Priyash\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"priyash.shah@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9920804344\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 06:09:54'),
(3466, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Priyash\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"priyash.shah@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9920804344\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in PMS\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 06:10:13'),
(3467, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanjay Oswal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sanjay.oswal@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9810133209\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am interested in participating in your PMS. Please get in touch.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 06:25:02'),
(3468, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"MEHUL RAJODIYA\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"MEHUL3948@GMAIL.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8154868429\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"DEAR SIR, \\r\\n MY NAME IS MEHUL RAJODIYA, AND I AM A BACHELOR STUDENT OF BBA, AND I HAVE READ YOUR BOOK, IT WAS SO AMAZING AND IMPRESSIVE. AND THEN I SEARCHED ABOUT YOU AND I FOUND THAT YOU ARE CURRENTLY MANAGES FUND IN MARCELLUS, SO I WANT TO DO INTERNSHIP IN YOUR COMPANY. PLEASE ALLOW ME TO DO AND LEARN.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 07:13:59'),
(3469, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"PARIMAL PATEL\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"coolexcarrier@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+919825039611\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 07:16:14'),
(3470, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Atul Jain\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"atuljain22@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9972647272\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Looking to invest in Consistent Compounder PMS. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 07:47:29'),
(3471, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ketan Doshi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokeng.ketan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9824326002\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Contact me for pms or send me detail by mail \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 08:37:52'),
(3472, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Raghav Agarwalla\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ra@sfplcorp.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"919833947450\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 09:28:53'),
(3473, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ketan Doshi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokeng.ketan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9824326002\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Send your pms detail or call \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 10:48:22'),
(3474, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vikas Rai\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vikasnilima12@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"07042532650\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 12:27:57'),
(3475, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SHWETA SINGH\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"maktub.kinksha@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"07755910766\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 12:35:02'),
(3476, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Piyush Bhargava\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"idea212011@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9981136437\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am a distributor of Financial Product, How can i associate with you ?\\r\\nIs only Equity PMS is the only product your are offering ? \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 14:43:06'),
(3477, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jayakumar Gopalan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gjayakum@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845031251\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 15:30:08'),
(3478, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jayakumar Gopalan\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gjayakum@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845031251\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 15:30:08'),
(3479, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Amit Jaisingh\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amitshilipi200@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9920019623\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Pls call for investment discussion\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 16:00:43'),
(3480, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Udaya ganti\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"udayabhaskarg9@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9618521123\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 16:48:20'),
(3481, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"K L Sabharwal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"klsabharwal111@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09871474151\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 17:02:19'),
(3482, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rupayan Chatterjee\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"Rupayanc@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09886043200\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 17:10:54'),
(3483, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dhruvin Shah\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"shahdhruvin361@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09724870980\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 17:16:41'),
(3484, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rupayan Chatterjee\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"Rupayanc@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09886043200\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"How do we invest with your company directly \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 17:20:15'),
(3485, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Diwakar Sharma\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"diwakar.investing@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9313362980\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-19 17:32:23'),
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\\u092a\\u0930 \\u092d\\u0941\\u0917\\u0924\\u093e\\u0928 \\u0915\\u0930 \\u0938\\u0915\\u0924\\u0947 \\u0939\\u0948\\u0902\\u0964 \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u092e\\u0948\\u0902\\u0928\\u0947 \\u0906\\u092a\\u0915\\u0940 \\u0935\\u0947\\u092c\\u0938\\u093e\\u0907\\u091f \\u0926\\u0947\\u0916\\u0940 \\u0914\\u0930 \\u0906\\u092a \\u0905\\u092a\\u0928\\u0940 \\u0935\\u0947\\u092c\\u0938\\u093e\\u0907\\u091f \\u092a\\u0930 Revollet \\u0936\\u0941\\u0930\\u0942 \\u0915\\u0930\\u0928\\u093e \\u091a\\u093e\\u0939\\u0924\\u0947 \\u0939\\u0948\\u0902\\u0964 \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u092c\\u0947\\u0936\\u0915, \\u092e\\u0948\\u0902\\u0928\\u0947 \\u0906\\u092a\\u0915\\u0947 \\u0932\\u093f\\u090f \\u090f\\u0915 \\u0938\\u0939\\u092c\\u0926\\u094d\\u0927 \\u0907\\u0928\\u093e\\u092e \\u0924\\u0948\\u092f\\u093e\\u0930 \\u0915\\u093f\\u092f\\u093e \\u0939\\u0948\\u0964 \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u092f\\u0926\\u093f \\u0906\\u092a \\u0939\\u092e\\u093e\\u0930\\u0947 \\u0938\\u0939\\u092c\\u0926\\u094d\\u0927 \\u0915\\u093e\\u0930\\u094d\\u092f\\u0915\\u094d\\u0930\\u092e \\u092e\\u0947\\u0902 \\u0936\\u093e\\u092e\\u093f\\u0932 \\u0939\\u094b\\u0924\\u0947 \\u0939\\u0948\\u0902, \\u0924\\u094b \\u0906\\u092a\\u0915\\u094b \\u092a\\u0941\\u0930\\u0938\\u094d\\u0915\\u093e\\u0930 \\u092a\\u094d\\u0930\\u093e\\u092a\\u094d\\u0924 \\u0939\\u094b\\u0902\\u0917\\u0947: \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u0915\\u093e\\u0930\\u094d\\u0921 \\u091c\\u093e\\u0930\\u0940 \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915 \\u0915\\u093e $ 10% \\r\\n$ \\u0932\\u0947\\u0928-\\u0926\\u0947\\u0928 \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915 \\r\\n$ \\u0924\\u0940\\u0938\\u0930\\u0947 \\u0938\\u094d\\u0924\\u0930 \\u0924\\u0915 \\u0930\\u0947\\u092b\\u0930\\u0932 \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u0915\\u0943\\u092a\\u092f\\u093e \\u0935\\u093f\\u0935\\u0930\\u0923 \\u0915\\u0947 \\u0932\\u093f\\u090f \\u0939\\u092e\\u093e\\u0930\\u0940 \\u0935\\u0947\\u092c\\u0938\\u093e\\u0907\\u091f \\u0926\\u0947\\u0916\\u0947\\u0902\\u0964 \\r\\n \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/revollet.in \\r\\n \\r\\n\\u0906\\u0935\\u0947\\u0926\\u0928 \\u092a\\u0924\\u094d\\u0930 \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/revollet.io?token=MH8Ehnv1 \\r\\n \\r\\n$ \\u0938\\u0902\\u092c\\u0926\\u094d\\u0927 \\u0906\\u092f\\u094b\\u0917 \\u0938\\u0942\\u091a\\u0940 $ \\r\\n\\u0905\\u0902\\u0924\\u0930\\u094d\\u0930\\u093e\\u0937\\u094d\\u091f\\u094d\\u0930\\u0940\\u092f \\u092a\\u094d\\u0930\\u0947\\u0937\\u0923 \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915, \\u0938\\u094d\\u0925\\u093e\\u0928\\u093e\\u0902\\u0924\\u0930\\u0923 \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915, \\u091c\\u092e\\u093e \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915 (\\u092b\\u093f\\u090f\\u091f), \\u0915\\u094d\\u0930\\u093f\\u092a\\u094d\\u091f\\u094b \\u0935\\u093f\\u0928\\u093f\\u092e\\u092f \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915, \\u092e\\u0941\\u0926\\u094d\\u0930\\u093e \\u0935\\u093f\\u0928\\u093f\\u092e\\u092f \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915, \\u0915\\u093e\\u0930\\u094d\\u0921 \\u091c\\u093e\\u0930\\u0940 \\u0936\\u0941\\u0932\\u094d\\u0915, 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(3716, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"JimmySal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"callndata.com@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"82862567272\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We have experience team which has delivered a wide range of versatile projects for Mobile App, software, website development and other device. If you looking for experience team who can understand your business to hire, we can deliver in time and in budget. We can do following for you \\r\\n \\r\\n1. Mobile app design & development in Android, iOS and Windows with end to end solutions for your new Idea or business application \\r\\n2. Web Application \\/ Desktop Application Development using ASP.net, Java,C# \\r\\n3. Website design and development in ASP, ASP.net, php and Java \\r\\n4. e-commerce and market place portal design and development as per your need \\r\\n5. Custom Software development using asp.net, php and Java. \\r\\n \\r\\nWe have below  ready to use \\/ customize software: - \\r\\n \\r\\n1. ERP \\/customized software for medium-sized business \\r\\n2. Hospital Managemeny System \\r\\n3. Education Institute Managemeny System \\r\\n4. Events and work flow system \\r\\n5. Recruitment system \\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nPlease feel to call me anytime on the below mentioned numbers, to discuss your Software Development requirements and I would be glad to assist you. \\r\\n \\r\\nTruly, \\r\\n \\r\\nRavi Kant \\r\\ncallNdata Technologies \\r\\n \\r\\nskype : ravikant2010 \\r\\nIndia: +91  8767 477 454 \\r\\nMalaysia : +60 115 118 0556 \\r\\nHong Kong : +852 8191 6996\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-11-26 13:53:24'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(4120, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"santhosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sivasathy007@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9043198089\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-02 08:23:02'),
(4121, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SRINIVASA GOPAL \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gopal.s.rekapalli@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9899163177\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-02 08:38:20'),
(4122, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhagvinder Singh Bedi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bsbedi@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9316043024\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-02 08:39:47');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(4226, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"shaik \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amzad82@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"7829063900\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"can you send me your portfolio list\\/stocks..\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 05:30:27'),
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(4230, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rohan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rohangaur91@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello,\\r\\n\\r\\nBeing an investor and working in the US, I am curious how can I bifurcate my investments into US and Indian markets. Do you just invest in Indian markets? Please let me know.\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks,\\r\\nRohan\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 07:49:59'),
(4231, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vivek Rajaraman\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vivek.rajaraman@sanctumwealth.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9920559377\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 08:29:25'),
(4232, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"V Ramakrishnan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vramakrishnan@motilaloswal.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9884033454\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Clarus RCM Infotech Pvt Ltd - CCP0858, unable to login, PMS account activated on Nov 23 2019. Client is getting frustrated\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 09:35:23'),
(4233, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sanjeev Kumar\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sksaini4@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09899887780\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\nI would like to start one PMS. Would you please clarify below queries\\r\\na) Minimum Investment\\r\\nb) I\'m NRI, can I invest on my spouse name (House wife)?\\r\\nc) What is the fee structure?\\r\\nd) what is the procedure & How long it will take to open PMS?\\r\\ne) How to monitor PMS regularly?\\r\\nf) What is your strategy to save the capital if market turn to worst?\\r\\ng) Is it right time to invest If I have 5 year view from here?\\r\\nh) How many stock will be there is portfolio (Tentative)\\r\\n\\r\\nRegards,\\r\\nSanjeev Kumar\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 09:57:45'),
(4234, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Nimesh Kanani\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nimeshkanani@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9867722677\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Please call for pms\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 10:19:43'),
(4235, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Arvind Narang\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arvindnarang8@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9324216644\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi Saurabh\\r\\nI live in Odyssey-2 Hiranandani Gardens.  I believe you are in Odyssey-1.\\r\\nUnderstand that you have set up your own PMS.  May be we can meet some time and you can share some of the merits of investing in your PMS.\\r\\nLet me know.\\r\\nBest......Arvind\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-05 11:01:53'),
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(4393, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jamsheed Poncha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jponcha@tata.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9920243627\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-11 05:16:41'),
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(4395, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Samiron Naba Saikia\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saikiasamiron@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9864447763\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"what is the minimum investment amount to your PMS?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-11 05:53:34');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(4402, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Alisia Coppleson\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"alisia.coppleson@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"0313 7497578\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi\\r\\n\\r\\nI have spoken to someone from your team about Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists.\\r\\n\\r\\nHere is a quick overview of the database:\\r\\n\\r\\nWomen\'s apparel and clothing store database is a collection of the contact details of virtually all women\'s clothing and apparel stores (including nightwear and lingerie stores) from around the world. The marketing list covers the majority of English and non-English speaking countries, including United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, parts of Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Russia and CIS and Asia. Our Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists cover most of women\'s clothing shops across all states in the USA, UK, Europe, Australia, the Middle East and Asia. Our fashion industry and Apparel Buyers Email Lists are ideal for B2B marketing. IDEAL FOR FASHION DESIGNERS. FREE LIFETIME UPDATES. DOWNLOAD.\\r\\n\\r\\nThe database currently contains 31,000+ business contact details and is being updated on a rolling basis. You will receive all the updates automatically to your member\'s area. Upon purchase the files along with an invoice will become available in your member\'s area.\\r\\n\\r\\nTo learn more about Women\'s Clothing and Apparel Email Lists and Mailing Lists, please visit https:\\/\\/creativebeartech.com\\/product\\/womens-clothing-and-apparel-email-lists-and-mailing-lists\\/\\r\\n\\r\\nSergey Greenfields\\r\\nFounder of Creative Bear Tech\\r\\nFlat 9, 1 Jardine Rd, St Katharine\'s & Wapping, \\r\\nLondon E1W 3WD, United Kingdom\\r\\n+447463563696\\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/creativebeartech.com\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-11 07:34:13'),
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(4408, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Juby Mamachan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"juby_mamachan@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09562466633\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Pl share the PMS details ..\\r\\nThanks .. Juby\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2019-12-11 09:12:23'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(4946, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Radhakrishnan \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rrkmfl@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+96599324563\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 06:52:06'),
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(4948, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Mp\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"miteshparonawala23@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9913027050\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 07:10:09'),
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(4960, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Paras Mehta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pm63738@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8826599733\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 10:29:00'),
(4961, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"vamsi atyam\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rajavamsi@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"+61422023070\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 12:17:28'),
(4962, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Rajnish Bhandari\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rkbhandari62@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8108749000\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 12:22:54'),
(4963, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Hemanshu Agarwal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"hemanshuagarwal@yahoo.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9903299529\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 12:36:32'),
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(4965, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Srini \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"namosrini@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8008153076\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 14:34:07'),
(4966, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Dushyant \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"dushikelwa@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9928666009\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 14:40:25'),
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(4968, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Melvinexpip\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nwhitlockor@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"84686575868\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\" \\r\\nHow To Choose A Topic For Languages Essay\\r\\n\\r\\nApplication essay writing is also referred to as admission essay writing. In the elementary years, young writers get an introduction to essay writing through two courses designed to bring excitement and enjoyment to the writing process. When picking out persuasive essay topics to write about, it would be best to stick with your own personal opinions so that you will have a definite idea on what to put in it.\\r\\n \\r\\n[url=https:\\/\\/mmsoftek.com]my sources[\\/url]\\r\\n[url=https:\\/\\/newszou.com]click[\\/url]\\r\\n[url=https:\\/\\/astischool.com]visit their website[\\/url]\\r\\n \\r\\n \\r\\nFive Paragrafh Essays\\r\\n\\r\\nThere are tens of different papers which students are to write during their application and study processes. Essay writing is an art of displaying information on a piece of paper that is intended to take a position in favor or against an issue. Essay writers meet your instructions A to Z and focus on delivering a paper that lives up to the brief. Writing the same essay for different colleges but forgetting to change the name.\\r\\n \\r\\n[url=http:\\/\\/cavernadodiabo.com.br\\/pousadas.html]How To Write Monroe College Essay Examples[\\/url]\\r\\n[url=http:\\/\\/megyaszoiskola.hu\\/forum\\/2-belepo-kapu\\/6430304-virginia-kearney-on-hubpages#6430304]Virginia Kearney On HubPages[\\/url]\\r\\n[url=http:\\/\\/kingsandintl.com\\/wordpress\\/?page_id=9#comment-4618]An Analysis Of John Roche\'s Essay[\\/url]\\r\\n dacf5_5 \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 14:42:57'),
(4969, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"SAMIT SARAF\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"samitsaraf23@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9834207329\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-05 16:03:41'),
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(5120, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"P. C. Chowdhury\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"pcchowdhury@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"8884918420\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"What is the minimum investment for your PMS?  Do you accept existing portfolios  as initial investment?\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 07:10:48'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(5129, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Uday\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"udayzope@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820564898\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 11:19:39'),
(5130, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Paras Bothra\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"paras@ashikagroup.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9820397061\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"We publish our Ashika Monthly Insight in which we cover CIO Interviews. In this regard I wanted to cover Mr Saurabh Mukherjee in this months Insight and hence wanted time for a Q&A interview with him. It would be great if i can get connected to him for the same. Best Regards\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 11:33:09'),
(5131, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Chittaranjan Prabhu\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"prabhuchittaranjan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9819691265\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"PMS service enquiry\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 12:08:45'),
(5132, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Amit\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amit.salunkhepatil@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9021007443\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 12:18:40'),
(5133, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Gabriel Dib\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gabrielwagnerdib@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"5551991611026\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"My calculations are not matching the following article from you:\\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/marcellus.in\\/newsletter\\/the-conventional-dcf-method-undervalues-longevity-of-a-business\\/\\r\\nI did a dcf growing 25% for 5 year and then the growth is reduced to 5% for 10 years in stage 2. After that I calculated a perpetuity with 5% terminal growth and a cost of equity of 12%. The result was a 46x fair multiple, while in the article you talk about 24x. Is it not wrong?\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 12:22:23'),
(5134, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Tapan Kumar Datta\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"tapan.k.datta@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+919874733438\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Have stocks , mf and ncds which need to re-look.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 13:13:26'),
(5135, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sonali Garg\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sgarg@samenacapital.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09903548724\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 14:45:04'),
(5136, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sonali\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sonalig2015@email.iimcal.ac.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09903548724\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 14:45:20'),
(5137, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Tejas Gowda\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"v.tejas@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+91 9886414086\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am looking for PMS service. Please let me know what is the process. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 14:49:35'),
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(5144, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"hrishikesh shrinivas nayak\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"hrishu_roopa@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9901724640\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"what is the minimum quantity to invest in these scheme or if any sip option available\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-09 17:43:44'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(5375, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Nizamudeen\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nizam.spam@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9940113001\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in small champ PMS Services \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-18 11:42:31'),
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(5389, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ashok Kumar Yadav \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashokyadav077@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8826233505\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-18 13:52:00'),
(5390, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Jayakumar Gopalan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gjayakum@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9845031281\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Can you send me details of the small cap PMS, thanks \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-18 14:11:23'),
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(5397, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vaibhav Sethi\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vsethi@quantxindia.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09873000825\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-18 15:51:03'),
(5398, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Thirupathinaidu Veerthineni\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"naidu.veerthineni@outlook.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9160000983\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-18 15:52:02'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(5769, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"somu\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"capsomu@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9884267169\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 03:28:51'),
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(5771, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"vishal lodha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"lvishal@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"00971504208784\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 04:20:58'),
(5772, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jaideep Kalgutkar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"JSKALGUTKAR@YAHOO.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09223550412\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 04:37:04'),
(5773, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Jaideep Kalgutkar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"JSKALGUTKAR@YAHOO.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9223550412\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 04:37:18'),
(5774, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Eric Jones\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"eric@talkwithcustomer.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"416-385-3200\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\" \\r\\nHey,\\r\\n\\r\\nYou have a website marcellus.in, right?\\r\\n\\r\\nOf course you do. I am looking at your website now.\\r\\n\\r\\nIt gets traffic every day \\u2013 that you\\u2019re probably spending $2 \\/ $4 \\/ $10 or more a click to get.  Not including all of the work you put into creating social media, videos, blog posts, emails, and so on.\\r\\n\\r\\nSo you\\u2019re investing seriously in getting people to that site.\\r\\n\\r\\nBut how\\u2019s it working?  Great? Okay?  Not so much?\\r\\n\\r\\nIf that answer could be better, then it\\u2019s likely you\\u2019re putting a lot of time, effort, and money into an approach that\\u2019s not paying off like it should.\\r\\n\\r\\nNow\\u2026 imagine doubling your lead conversion in just minutes\\u2026 In fact, I\\u2019ll go even better.\\r\\n \\r\\nYou could actually get up to 100X more conversions!\\r\\n\\r\\nI\\u2019m not making this up.  As Chris Smith, best-selling author of The Conversion Code says: Speed is essential - there is a 100x decrease in Leads when a Lead is contacted within 14 minutes vs being contacted within 5 minutes.\\r\\n\\r\\nHe\\u2019s backed up by a study at MIT that found the odds of contacting a lead will increase by 100 times if attempted in 5 minutes or less.\\r\\n\\r\\nAgain, out of the 100s of visitors to your website, how many actually call to become clients?\\r\\n\\r\\nWell, you can significantly increase the number of calls you get \\u2013 with ZERO extra effort.\\r\\n\\r\\nTalkWithCustomer makes it easy, simple, and fast \\u2013 in fact, you can start getting more calls today\\u2026 and at absolutely no charge to you.\\r\\n\\r\\nCLICK HERE http:\\/\\/www.talkwithcustomer.com now to take a free, 14-day test drive to find out how.\\r\\n\\r\\nSincerely,\\r\\nEric\\r\\n\\r\\nPS: Don\\u2019t just take my word for it, TalkWithCustomer works:\\r\\nEMA has been looking for ways to reach out to an audience. TalkWithCustomer so far is the most direct call of action. It has produced above average closing ratios and we are thrilled. Thank you for providing a real and effective tool to generate REAL leads. - P MontesDeOca.\\r\\nBest of all, act now to get a no-cost 14-Day Test Drive \\u2013 our gift to you just for giving TalkWithCustomer a try. \\r\\nCLICK HERE http:\\/\\/www.talkwithcustomer.com to start converting up to 100X more leads today!\\r\\n\\r\\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http:\\/\\/liveserveronline.com\\/talkwithcustomer.aspx?d=marcellus.in\\r\\n\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 04:56:27'),
(5775, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"bhowman\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bhowman@rediffmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9943510931\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 05:12:48'),
(5776, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"KIRAN SHANKAR PHALAK\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"kiranphalak@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820747224\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 05:35:07'),
(5777, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"jinesh shah\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"jinesh74@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9833428609\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 05:37:46'),
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(5779, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"VS Kumar \",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vejella60@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9490168240\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 07:09:04'),
(5780, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vikas\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vikaspuri79@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9814308164\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 07:21:49'),
(5781, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ashwinikumar Agnihotri\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashwinagni@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9833070066\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 07:48:21'),
(5782, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Saurabh Agrawal\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"saurabhshares@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9341979692\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Interested in Little champs. Please let me know further details. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 07:52:08'),
(5783, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"nayan savla\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"nayansavla1@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"0729494466\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 07:55:14'),
(5784, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Raphael Lammon\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"raphael.lammon@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"030 10 30 66\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"1 Cup of this tomorrow morning will burn 3lbs of belly fat\\r\\n\\r\\nIf you still haven\'t tried this, you\\u2019re going to want to add this to your morning routine\\r\\nSipping on 1 cup of this delicious hot beverage in the morning sets you up to burn more fat than 55 exhausting minutes on the treadmill.\\r\\n\\r\\nIn fact, some folks are losing up to 25 Lbs of fat in just 19 days by drinking it every morning.\\r\\n\\r\\nNot to mention, it\\u2019s super easy to make right in your own kitchen. \\r\\n\\r\\nHave a look at my site for more info:  http:\\/\\/www.fatbellyfix.xyz\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 08:27:13'),
(5785, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"john\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bullforeverh@yahoo.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"6284456214\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 08:49:59'),
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(5793, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Yash Bokaria\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ybokaria13@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820744137\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 14:13:21'),
(5794, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"egewowi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"itelivi@dsghf.safffsmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"89519639714\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-01-29 14:35:21'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(6528, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Ajith K\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ajith.kalarikkal@bobcaps.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09022518490\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-12 13:25:23'),
(6529, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"sagar arya\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sagar.arya90@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"08790615061\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-12 13:48:07'),
(6530, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sagar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sagar.arya90@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8790615061\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-12 14:06:39'),
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(6600, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Deep Narang\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"visit.deep.narang@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"8130164888\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-16 01:32:28'),
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(6603, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Arun Narayan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arunarayan@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9880260969\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Would like to know more about your pms\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-16 04:29:14'),
(6604, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"G.RAM ARVIND\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gadirajuarvind@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7997083849\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-16 05:35:30'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(6622, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Gaurav Gupta\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gauravcapitalservices@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9833867700\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Do you\'ll tie up with IFA as well , I\'m an IFA based out of churchgate \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-16 09:46:24'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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\\r\\nCommon databases: \\r\\nAll Europe 44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \\r\\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domain names- 1000$ \\r\\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \\r\\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of sites - 200$ \\r\\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domains - 300$ \\r\\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\nCompanies of Russia - 300$ \\r\\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domains - 200$ \\r\\n \\r\\nOur databases: \\r\\nWHOIS databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \\r\\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \\r\\n \\r\\nP\\/S \\r\\nPlease, do not respond to this letter from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not reach us! \\r\\nUse the contact form from the site 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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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44 countries 60726150 of domains - 1100$ \\r\\nAll European Union 28 countries 56752547 of sites- 1000$ \\r\\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of sites - 300$ \\r\\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of domain names - 300$ \\r\\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \\r\\nCompanies of RF - 300$ \\r\\nUkraine 605745 of domains - 100$ \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\n \\r\\nOur databases: \\r\\nWHOIS databases of domains for all countries of the world. \\r\\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \\r\\n \\r\\nP\\/S \\r\\nPls., do not respond to this commercial offer from your email account, as it has been generated in automatic mode and will not get anywhere! \\r\\nUse the contact form from the site http:\\/\\/xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \\r\\n \\r\\nPRICE LIST: \\r\\n \\r\\nTest mailing: $20 \\u2013 10000 contact forms websites \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Europe 44 countries there are 60726150 websites \\u2013 $1100 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll EU 28 countries there are 56752547 websites \\u2013 $1000 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Asia 48 countries there are 14662004 websites \\u2013 $500 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Africa 50 countries there are 1594390 websites \\u2013 $200 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll North and Central America is 35 countries there are 7441637 websites \\u2013 $300 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll South America 14 countries there are 5826884 websites \\u2013 $200 \\r\\n \\r\\nTop 1 Million World\\u2019s Best websites \\u2013 $100 \\r\\n \\r\\nTop 16821856 the most visited websites in the world \\u2013 $200 \\r\\n \\r\\nBusinesses and organizations of the Russian Federation \\u2013 there are 3012045 websites \\u2013 $300 \\r\\n \\r\\nUkraine 605745 websites \\u2013 $100 \\r\\n \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia \\u2013 there are 15 countries and 1526797 websites \\u2013 $200 \\r\\n 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\\r\\n.center 35353 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.ceo 2458 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cf 476142 websites Central African Republic \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cg 166 \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.ch 1471685 websites Switzerland \\u2013 $100 \\r\\n.ch 205292 websites International zone Switzerland:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$50 \\r\\n.chat 11126 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cheap 3267 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.christmas 15255 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.church 21104 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.ci 112 websites International zone Cote d\\u2019Ivoire:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia \\r\\n.ci 5663 websites Cote d\\u2019Ivoire- $50 \\r\\n.city 46171 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cl 498401 websites Chile \\u2013 $80 \\r\\n.claims 2374 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cleaning 2385 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.click 181015 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.clinic 7006 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.clothing 13639 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cloud 134113 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.club 1045323 websites \\u2013 $100 \\r\\n.cm 12001 websites Cameroon- $50 \\r\\n.cn 1372416 websites International zone China:.com.net.biz.info.org.name.tel.mobi.asia-$100 \\r\\n.cn 7264587 websites China \\u2013 $300 \\r\\n.co 1778923 websites Colombia \\u2013 $150 \\r\\n.coach 12002 websites- $50 \\r\\n.codes 6844 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.coffee 17257 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cologne 5137 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.cologne 5198 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.com.ar 657716 websites Argentina \\u2013 $80 \\r\\n.com.br 942898 websites Brazil \\u2013 $100 \\r\\n.com.cy 11153 websites Cyprus \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.com.ni 23747 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.com.np 38828 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.com.ru, .net.ru, .org.ru, .spb.ru, .msk.ru 79058 websites Russia \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.community 13013 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.company 61217 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.computer 5039 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.condos 2192 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.construction 6804 websites \\u2013 $50 \\r\\n.consulting 22128 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(6946, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"RUCHIR PACHAURI\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"RUCHIRPACHAURI@HOTMAIL.COM\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9997719601\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"VERY NEW TO THE MARKET, WANT TO INVEST FOR LONG TERM \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 15:29:43'),
(6947, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Yogin Chandorkar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"yoginsc@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9967030864\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 16:39:23'),
(6948, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Arijit Ghosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arijitkumarghosh98@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09830240443\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:00:25'),
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(6952, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Arijit Ghosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arijitkumarghosh98@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9830240443\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:00:55'),
(6953, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Arijit Ghosh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"arijitkumarghosh98@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9830240443\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:00:57'),
(6954, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhavin\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bhavin.damania@suryodaybank.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9920880616\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:09:57'),
(6955, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Kaushal Mankad \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mankad.kaushal@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9377267688\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"My only wish is to have my portfolio managed by Saurabh Mukherjea.\\r\\n\\r\\nEquity portfolio size is more than Rs.50 lacs\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:17:45'),
(6956, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Subban chettiar DEENATHAYALAN\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"deenathayalan10@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9524261652\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 17:55:01'),
(6957, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Prakash Modak\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vicemonk.06@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9860267571\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:05:27'),
(6958, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhanwar Singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mahalaxmishare@yahoo.co.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9414007150\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:08:01'),
(6959, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bhanwar Singh\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"mahalaxmishares@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"7014500460\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:08:22'),
(6960, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"ranjan chakraborti\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ranjanns@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9811703727\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:16:45'),
(6961, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Gurjeev Singh Anand\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gurjeevsingh@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9414176125\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:29:38'),
(6962, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Aman Madrecha\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"madrechaaman@gmail.con\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9426545232\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 18:35:33'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
(6964, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Sidharth Rai\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sidharthcircuit@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi, \\r\\nis 50 lakhs  the minimum requirement to start with.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 19:20:41'),
(6965, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Eric Jones\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"eric@talkwithwebvisitor.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"416-385-3200\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hey there, I just found your site, quick question\\u2026\\r\\n\\r\\nMy name\\u2019s Eric, I found marcellus.in after doing a quick search \\u2013 you showed up near the top of the rankings, so whatever you\\u2019re doing for SEO, looks like it\\u2019s working well.\\r\\n\\r\\nSo here\\u2019s my question \\u2013 what happens AFTER someone lands on your site?  Anything?\\r\\n\\r\\nResearch tells us at least 70% of the people who find your site, after a quick once-over, they disappear\\u2026 forever.\\r\\n\\r\\nThat means that all the work and effort you put into getting them to show up, goes down the tubes.\\r\\n\\r\\nWhy would you want all that good work \\u2013 and the great site you\\u2019ve built \\u2013 go to waste?\\r\\n\\r\\nBecause the odds are they\\u2019ll just skip over calling or even grabbing their phone, leaving you high and dry.\\r\\n\\r\\nBut here\\u2019s a thought\\u2026 what if you could make it super-simple for someone to raise their hand, say, \\u201cokay, let\\u2019s talk\\u201d without requiring them to even pull their cell phone from their pocket?\\r\\n  \\r\\nYou can \\u2013 thanks to revolutionary new software that can literally make that first call happen NOW.\\r\\n\\r\\nTalk With Web Visitor is a software widget that sits on your site, ready and waiting to capture any visitor\\u2019s Name, Email address and Phone Number.  It lets you know IMMEDIATELY \\u2013 so that you can talk to that lead while they\\u2019re still there at your site.\\r\\n  \\r\\nYou know, strike when the iron\\u2019s hot!\\r\\n\\r\\nCLICK HERE http:\\/\\/www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try out a Live Demo with Talk With Web Visitor now to see exactly how it works.\\r\\n\\r\\nWhen targeting leads, you HAVE to act fast \\u2013 the difference between contacting someone within 5 minutes versus 30 minutes later is huge \\u2013 like 100 times better!\\r\\n\\r\\nThat\\u2019s why you should check out our new SMS Text With Lead feature as well\\u2026 once you\\u2019ve captured the phone number of the website visitor, you can automatically kick off a text message (SMS) conversation with them. \\r\\n \\r\\nImagine how powerful this could be \\u2013 even if they don\\u2019t take you up on your offer immediately, you can stay in touch with them using text messages to make new offers, provide links to great content, and build your credibility.\\r\\n\\r\\nJust this alone could be a game changer to make your website even more effective.\\r\\n\\r\\nStrike when  the iron\\u2019s hot!\\r\\n\\r\\nCLICK HERE http:\\/\\/www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to learn more about everything Talk With Web Visitor can do for your business \\u2013 you\\u2019ll be amazed.\\r\\n\\r\\nThanks and keep up the great work!\\r\\n\\r\\nEric\\r\\nPS: Talk With Web Visitor offers a FREE 14 days trial \\u2013 you could be converting up to 100x more leads immediately!   \\r\\nIt even includes International Long Distance Calling. \\r\\nStop wasting money chasing eyeballs that don\\u2019t turn into paying customers. \\r\\nCLICK HERE http:\\/\\/www.talkwithwebvisitor.com to try Talk With Web Visitor now.\\r\\n\\r\\nIf you\'d like to unsubscribe click here http:\\/\\/talkwithwebvisitor.com\\/unsubscribe.aspx?d=marcellus.in\\r\\n\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-02-26 19:38:33'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(7794, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"puneet dewan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"puneetdewan70@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9811655856\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"information on PMS or advisory services \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 08:57:10'),
(7795, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Vineet\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vineet.biradarpatil@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9845777499\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 09:04:08'),
(7796, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"VIKRAM SINGH\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"VIKYSANDHU@YAHOO.CO.IN\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9845409662\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi Team Marcellus,\\r\\n\\r\\nMy name is Vikram , I am an IFA from Bangalore, would like to explore how may I distribute your PMS . Please let me know if we can have a discussion, \\r\\nWarm Regards \\r\\nVikram\\r\\n9845409662\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 10:24:41'),
(7797, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Padmaja M\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"padmaja.mukundan@icicisecurities.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9619490335\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 10:24:43'),
(7798, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Gautam Kale\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"gautam.kale@trustplutus.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9819914469\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 10:27:09'),
(7799, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Abhishek Jain\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"caabhishek94090@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9409054230\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I would like to know more about the PMS you offer and the various aspects related to the same\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 10:28:46'),
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(7806, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Sujit Modi\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sujit.modi@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9820249624\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 12:41:47'),
(7807, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Bimal\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"bimalbk@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"09953310360\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 12:42:07'),
(7808, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Aditya Kshirsagar\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"adityakshirsagar20@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9970123833\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-11 12:50:36'),
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(7882, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Ashin John\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"ashinjohn001@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello,\\r\\n\\r\\nI\'d like to add 50L to your PMS. I\'ve been reading your stories on Bloomberg Quint and would also like to make use of the current dip because of corronavirus. I\'d like the conversations to happen over email, if that\'s ok with you. I\'d also like you to let me know how to start. I already have PMS with 2Point2Capital and MoneyLife. So I already know the basics. \\r\\n\\r\\nThanks. \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-12 16:48:17'),
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(7905, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Amrit SIngh Sidhu \",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"amritsinghsidhu1992@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9815789544\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hello Team,\\r\\n\\r\\nI have been investing in the Indian equity markets since the last couple of years and very recently had the opportunity to listen to Saurabh talking about the fundamental investment philosophy Marcellus undertakes. \\r\\n\\r\\nFrankly, it was quite an eye opener as well as one of those limited experiences which makes one reflect. I sincerely thank him for the same. \\r\\n\\r\\nThereafter, i visited the Marcellus website to learn more about how young investors such as myself could get onboard the Marcellus portfolio management services. I fully understand the need for the PMS minimum investment criterion, however, would want to present a case that the current criteria restricts the entry for quite a big pool of interested people. \\r\\n\\r\\nI am aware that the current minimum investment criterion ensures that the current investors are naturally those who do have excess spare cash and do not take out their investments quite often and thereby, allow the fund manager to stay invested. \\r\\n\\r\\nI agree with the approach but would want to request if the minimum investment criterion could be relaxed considering that the fee could be revised accordingly to make up for the exception and the effort. \\r\\n\\r\\nLooking forward to learn more on how young investors could associate with Marcellus. \\r\\n\\r\\nThank you \\r\\n\\r\\nWarm Regards, \\r\\n\\r\\nAmrit \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-13 06:27:37'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(8066, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Veerendra Thati\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"contactveeru@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09177244566\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I want to invest with you. Please provide details on minimum investment required and also guide on how to invest\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 10:38:37'),
(8067, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"sajal gupta\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sajal94@yahoo.xom\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"96566709514\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 11:10:50');
INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(8073, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"Anil Goel\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"anil.goel2020@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9619358167\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 12:04:24'),
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(8075, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vinay jalan\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"vjalan77@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9830043715\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I m an HNI based in kolkata ..i want to open a PMS acct under Saurabh mukherjea ..plz advise \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 12:22:02'),
(8076, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Deeraj Dayananda Shetty\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"deeraj.shetty@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"09632544445\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Deeraj Shetty\\r\\nEthos Wealth Management Pvt Ltd \",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 12:40:37'),
(8077, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"RAFIQUL ISLAM\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rafiqulislam@ntpc.co\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9491601493\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 12:49:46'),
(8078, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"sandeep\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sandeepmohite07@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9922270678\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 12:55:45'),
(8079, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"S A KRISHNAN\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sakrishnan@hotmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9819451922\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi,\\r\\nI had opted for retirement and am likely to get my terminal dues in April 2020.  I wish to invest an amount of Rs.20 to 25 lacs.\\r\\nDo you entertain clients for 20 to 25 lacs?\\r\\nIf so, whether a one to one meeting is possible?\\r\\nWhether there are any consultation charges?\\r\\nThanks\\r\\nKrishnan\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 13:06:20'),
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(8087, 0, 'cf_1662', 3, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"last_name\":{\"value\":\"E CHANDRA SHEKHAR\",\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"eshekharec@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"mobile\":{\"value\":\"9490167525\",\"label\":\"Mobile\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website Pop Up\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"},\"recordType\":{\"value\":\"Investor\",\"label\":\"recordType\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 15:50:27'),
(8088, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Vitthal Patil\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"Vitthalpatil27@gmail.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"07588343731\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hey guys, \\r\\nfirst of all thanks for being such an inspiring people you are. You have fascinated me to be in stock markets. It\'s been around an year I\'m following markets and I have burnt my hands several times. But since recent times, I have been following Saurabh Mukharjee sir\'s, and rakshit Sir\'s interviews on TV and they are simply phenomenal. When I hear you guys, I see tremendous confidence in you and never ever once you have deviated from your frameworks. You have been greatly informative in those interviews. I know today I don\'t have enough money to invest in PMS but I assure you, that someday I will cross that 50L mark and then u will definitely get me as your client. Really looking forward to it. \\r\\nThough I would like to ask a query. Recently I read somewhere that you guys exited Marico. I know I don\'t have the right to ask so. But if you want to throw some insights here, it would be of great wisdom for me. Also, is ITC still a strong CCP stock?\\r\\nNo forcing for reply. But really looking forward to it.\\r\\nThanks guys, keep rocking as u always are.\\r\\nMore power to u!\\r\\nYour Future client,\\r\\nVitthal Patil\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-15 16:46:03'),
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INSERT INTO `mr_vxcf_sales_log` (`id`, `entry_id`, `form_id`, `feed_id`, `parent_id`, `crm_id`, `object`, `link`, `meta`, `event`, `data`, `response`, `extra`, `status`, `time`) VALUES
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(8161, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Invictus Wealth Advisors LLP\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"research@invictuswealth.in\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9703141838\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Hi\\r\\n\\r\\nwould like to empanel with you .could you please send the formalities for empanellment .\\r\\n\\r\\nRegards\\r\\nsrinivas\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-17 05:52:45'),
(8162, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Rupen jhaveri\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"rupen.jhaveri@kkr.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"9967377778\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"Id like to invest. Would like to connect with saurabh\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-17 06:02:32'),
(8163, 0, 'cf_28', 1, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"KeithBlopy\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"congcmo@yandex.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"89926843197\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"      HQ Twitter 2007 - 2019 Aged Accounts Starting from 1$ \\r\\nPrices: \\r\\n2017,2018,2019-1$ per account \\r\\n2015,2016-4$ per account \\r\\n2013,2014 - 5$ per account \\r\\n2012 - 6$ per account \\r\\n2011 - 7$ per account \\r\\n2010 - 8$ per account \\r\\n2009 - 10$ per account \\r\\n2008 - 20$ per account ( limited stock) \\r\\n \\r\\nThe Accounts \\r\\nHave zero or less than 50 followers. \\r\\nGender can be both male and female. \\r\\nMay or may not have profile pic and tweets. \\r\\nI have full access to the accounts, \\r\\nAccounts are delivered instant after paying. \\r\\nMy Contact Info \\r\\n \\r\\nEmail - congmmo@gmail . com \\r\\n \\r\\nhttps:\\/\\/sellaccs.net \\r\\n \\r\\nDiscord : CongMMO#9766 \\r\\nSkype & Telegram : congmmo \\r\\nICQ : @652720497 \\r\\n \\r\\nPlease don\'t PM here on this website , i rarely check it \\r\\nFor quick response contact me on discord or email. \\r\\n \\r\\nJoin my discord server to buy instantly - Link \\r\\n \\r\\nInstant Buy from the below link \\r\\nBuy link \\r\\n \\r\\nDue to timezone difference it might take some time to get back to you. Please wait patiently. \\r\\n \\r\\nI am verified seller here and have 100% positive feedback \\r\\n \\r\\nPayments Methods Accepted- BTC, Paypal (additional transaction\\/miner fee ) \\r\\n \\r\\nPlease don\'t waste my time if u r not serious. \\r\\n \\r\\nTerms \\r\\nAll sales are final, once accounts delivered, no refunds \\r\\nTwitter rules are becoming very strict everyday so I will not be held responsible for the suspension or banning of account in the near future. \\r\\n \\r\\nI also sell accounts with followers, check my other threads.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Distributor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-17 06:20:52'),
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(8165, 0, 'cf_29', 2, 0, '', 'Lead', '', '', 'submit', '{\"first_name\":{\"value\":\"Santosh Gore\",\"label\":\"First Name\"},\"last_name\":{\"value\":false,\"label\":\"Last Name\"},\"email\":{\"value\":\"sgore@iffco.com\",\"label\":\"Email\"},\"phone\":{\"value\":\"+971555138089\",\"label\":\"Phone\"},\"description\":{\"value\":\"I am a Dubai based NRI. I wish to invest in your PMS product. Please let me know how to proceed.\",\"label\":\"Description\"},\"lead_source\":{\"value\":\"Website\\/Investor\",\"label\":\"Lead Source\"}}', '{\"entry created\":\"TRUE\"}', '[]', 3, '2020-03-17 07:08:20'),
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European Union 28 countries 56752547 of domain names- 1000$ \\r\\nAll Asia 48 countries 14662004 of domains - 300$ \\r\\nAll Africa 50 countries 1594390 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\nAll North and Central America in 35 countries 7441637 of sites - 300$ \\r\\nAll South America 14 countries 5826884 of sites - 200$ \\r\\nEnterprises and organizations of the Russian Federation - 300$ \\r\\nUkraine 605745 of sites - 100$ \\r\\nAll Russian-speaking countries minus Russia are 15 countries and there are 1526797 of domain names - 200$ \\r\\n \\r\\nDatabases for sending newsletters: \\r\\nWhois-service databases of domain names for all countries of the world. \\r\\nYou can purchase our databases separately from newsletter\'s service at the request. \\r\\n \\r\\nP.S. \\r\\nPls., do not respond to this message from your electronic box, as it has been generated automatically and will not get anywhere! \\r\\nUse the contact form from the site http:\\/\\/xn----7sbb1bbndheurc1a.xn--p1ai \\r\\n 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